Morning Brew May 8 2026

Good morning!

As expected, Iran continues to keep markets on edge. Nerves were evident when fighting broke out as three U.S. destroyers moved through the Strait of Hormuz, but DJT stated that the ceasefire remains in place. This suggests he is working to de-escalate the situation, and traders are interpreting it accordingly:

U.S. crude traded in a wide range yesterday, testing the $90 mark before the escalation, rising to $98 and settling at $95.60. Silver climbed to $82.30, dropped to $78.30, then rebounded to $80.30. The S&P 500 touched 7,380, fell to 7,309, and is now at 7,356.

U.S. equities ended the day slightly lower, while Europe saw steeper losses as Trump reinforced his trade threats and Rheinmetall disappoints.

Commerzbank has raised its outlook and plans to cut 3,000 staff,  Clariant reports lower Earnings, Lonza confirms the outlook, Logitec launches  new share buyback progam.Sony forecast annual sales at its gaming division would fall due to lower hardware sales as the PlayStation 5 ages and the industry faces rising memory chip prices, Toyota has forecast a 20% decline in profit for the current financial year.

Yesterday, Broadcom contributed the most to the S&P 500's decline, falling 3.0%, while Zoetis had the largest drop at 21.5%. Datadog surged 31% in its biggest jump since 2019 after raising its annual forecast on strong demand for cloud security products. McDonald's also reported revenue and earnings that beat estimates thanks to higher value offerings and bigger burgers. In after-hours trading, Expedia shares fell 5.3% after results, as growth guidance was slightly below expectations. Coinbase also dropped 4.7% after reporting a surprise Q1 2026 loss of $0.17 per share versus an estimated $0.36 per share profit. It also missed revenue estimates, with revenue declining to $1.41 billion from $2.03 billion a year ago. Iren was up as much as 25% before falling, after Nvidia invested $2.1 billion through a five-year right to buy up to 30 million shares at an exercise price of $70. Whirlpool lost 12% after the home-appliance maker missed first-quarter sales estimates and suspended its dividend.

The USD Index is near yesterday's level. EUR/USD is at 1.1740, GBP/USD at 1.3580, and USD/JPY at 156.80. Gold is at $4,725 and silver at $80.30. Precious metals are trading around their 50-day moving averages, with silver and platinum breaking above, while gold has a little further to go. A weekly close above these levels would be a strong signal.

Today, the key data highlight is U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, expected at 62,000. The unemployment rate is 4.3%, and average earnings are seen at 3.8%. The big question is, will anyone care? Ahead of the first Fed meeting under the new chairman, expectations are for a dovish stance despite high inflation—will labor market data change that?

The nonfarm report will likely cause short-term volatility; I would be surprised if it significantly shifts sentiment. We need to see if Kevin Warsh prioritizes the Fed's independence over Trump's desire for lower rates. For now, the Fed is viewed as the most dovish among major central banks.

Trade carefully in light of significant intraday volatility and mid-term uncertainty.

Remember, trading and investing are about managing risk—not avoiding it.

Friday, May 8, 2026

Germany Industrial Output, Nonfarm Payrolls, University of Michigan Sentiment Final

Monday May 11
China CPI & PPI

Tuesday May 12

Germany Inflation & ZEW, US CPI