Morning Brew May 15 2025

Good morning,

We had a bit of a strange day yesterday as volumes were high despite little change in Indexes: The Dow fell  0.2%,the  S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose  0.7%. AMD was strong due to a buyback program, Super Micro Computer rose 16% on Analyst coverage, Boeing rose  only despite news of a substantial deal with Qatar Airways. eToro soared 29% from its $52 listing price to $67 in its public trading debut on Wednesday. Nvidia traded friendly again after huge middle east orders.

Nearly 20 Billion shares were traded on US exchanges, way above the 20 day average.

Dax is trading below the all time highs looking for inspiration, the trade agreement between the EU and the US seems far away and may put German exporters at a disadvantage. BMW is ex dividend today.

US ten Year yields remain elevated at 4.53 with FX overall trading fairly volatile. The USD Index is 100.86, EURUSD 1.1190, GBPUSD is 1.3270 and USDJPY 145.99. Gold and Silver are under pressure, Silver seems to be approaching key support in the 31.65/31.28 area, the 50% retracement of the huge 34.60/28.40 move and the 200d Moving average, Gold fell below the 50 day moving average over night to 3130.

Ole comments: Gold’s correction from last month's record high continues at pace after the US-China trade war truce lowered haven demand. Weighing on prices are signs that Chinese buyers, a key source of demand in recent months, have stepped away, leaving prices exposed at a time when speculators in the West have been net sellers for weeks. Technically, it looks soft, below USD 3,200, with USD 3,000 the next major level of support. Silver’s two-day slump has taken it close to support at USD 31.64 ahead of the 200 DMA at USD 31.27. 

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin indicated they would not attend the first direct peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv in three years in Istanbul, 32 Nato Countries are meeting in Antalya to discuss the Ukraine War.

According to the Financial Times, U.S. authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks' capital requirements in over a decade, watch Bank shares if true.

Republicans are pushing the tax bill that would add trillions of dollars to the U.S. debt, while cutting spending on healthcare for the poor and disabled.

Walmart Earnings and US Retail Sales key events today, the EU GDP will find attention only if there is a significant deviation from the expectation, otherwise we need to expect news on a constant basis.

Good Reads:

Many investors buy stocks blindfolded—why spending six minutes on research isn’t enough

ETF types explained: building blocks for every investor's portfolio

Thursday, May 15

- UK GDP

- EU GDP

- U.S. Retail Sales (April): Important consumer spending data & Initial Jobless claims

- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech: Closely watched for monetary policy signals

Earnings: Walmart, JohnDeere,

Friday, May 16

- EU Trade Balance,

- US House Prices & University of Michigan Sentiment