Morning Brew June 25 2026

Good morning.

Key things to watch:

1. Micron’s strong results are lifting the AI and semiconductor mood, but the relief is not extending to precious metals.

2. The U.S. dollar remains strong ahead of today’s key inflation data at 14:30, while the yen is back at levels where intervention risk is difficult to ignore.

3. Oil is falling as U.S.–Iran negotiations improve the supply outlook and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalises.

U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of underlying weakness. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,358, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.4% to 51,849. Microsoft fell 2.3% and Apollo Global dropped 6.1%, making them the largest drags on the S&P 500. After the close, however, Micron delivered the kind of result the AI trade needed. The company reported very strong numbers, supported by strategic customer agreements and robust demand from data centres, and the shares rose 15% after hours. This has helped stabilise sentiment in semiconductors and is lifting Asian markets this morning.

• The positive reaction to Micron, together with lower oil prices, is supporting Asian equities. The Nikkei is up around 4%, while the Kospi has gained roughly 5.5%. The move suggests that investors are still willing to buy the AI and semiconductor story when earnings provide confirmation, even if broader risk appetite remains fragile.
• Precious metals are not sharing in the improved sentiment. Gold broke below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November, falling almost 3% on Wednesday to trade as low as about $3,960. A stronger dollar and rising rate-hike expectations have reversed part of the “dollar debasement” trade that supported bullion during its three-year bull run. Gold steadied near $4,000 in early Asian trading, but the tone remains cautious after Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold target to $4,900 from $5,400. Silver fell below $60 per ounce for the first time since December, with its 14-day relative strength index approaching oversold levels. Copper also weakened, dropping 2.1% in London to $13,086.50 per tonne.

The main macro event today is the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures release at 14:30. Headline inflation is expected at 4.1%, with core inflation seen at 3.4%. A higher-than-expected number would likely push market expectations for year-end Federal Reserve rates beyond 4% and could give the U.S. dollar another leg higher. The dollar index is currently around 101.55. USD/JPY is holding near a new 52-week high around 161.81, keeping Bank of Japan intervention risk firmly on the radar. The next key level is 161.95, which would mark the weakest yen since December 1986.

• The third theme is oil. U.S.–Iran peace efforts have improved the supply outlook, with confidence in a lasting deal helping tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normalise. Buyers are now seeing more crude offers from the Middle East and West Africa, while a temporary U.S. waiver for already-loaded Iranian oil should add further supply. Brent’s prompt spread shifted into bearish contango on Wednesday for the first time since the conflict began, reinforcing the message that near-term supply stress is easing.

Brent crude dipped 1.6% to $72.53 a barrel, erasing all of its gains since the outbreak of the war. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell more than 1% to $69.36. Lower oil is helpful for the inflation outlook, but today’s U.S. inflation data will decide whether markets focus more on easing energy pressure or on still-sticky core inflation.

The outlook for today is therefore straightforward: Micron has given the AI trade breathing room, lower oil has reduced one source of inflation pressure, but the stronger dollar and the yen’s intervention zone make the FX market highly sensitive to the U.S. inflation print. If PCE comes in softer than expected, the combination of better semiconductor sentiment and lower oil could support risk assets. If inflation surprises higher, the dollar may strengthen further, rate expectations could move above 4% for year-end, and pressure on precious metals and rate-sensitive assets is likely to continue.

Trade safely.

• Thursday, June 25, 2026
  U.S. GDP, Personal Income and Spending, PCE, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims