Morning Brew June 15 2026

Good morning.

U.S. and Iranian officials said they have reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The news pushed oil prices lower, although Tehran’s nuclear programme remains subject to further negotiations. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon also remains uncertain this morning.

“The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social at around 5:30 p.m. in Washington on Sunday. His post followed an announcement by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country has acted as mediator, that an agreement had been reached early Monday local time. The memorandum of understanding is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. 

Markets had already priced in the likelihood of a deal, but confirmation still sent Brent crude down 4.7% to $83.24 a barrel, far below its May peak of $126.41. U.S. crude fell 5.5% to $80.16, though it remains above the $67 level seen before the war began.

Lower oil prices supported Asian markets, particularly energy-importing economies. Japan’s Nikkei rose 5.4%, South Korea gained 5.6%, Chinese blue chips advanced 1.4%, and MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan climbed 1.5%.

European futures also moved higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 and DAX futures both up 1.7%, while FTSE futures gained 0.7%. US Indexes are seen 1% to 2% higher.

The USD Index weakened, with EUR/USD back above 1.16, GBP/USD at 1.3445, and USD/JPY testing the 160 level to the downside at 160.10.

Gold and silver are firmer at 4,315 and 70.10, respectively, while Bitcoin is up 3.75% at 65,900.

In Switzerland, voters rejected the referendum to cap the population at 10 million, while the Swiss franc remains stable.

On Friday, Wall Street ended the week on a firmer footing as hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace framework helped risk sentiment recover and pushed oil-related inflation fears slightly into the background. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq added 0.3% on Friday. For the week, the major U.S. indices were also modestly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.65%, the Nasdaq up 0.7% and the Dow up 0.66%. Market breadth was constructive, though trading remained cautious after a volatile stretch for technology shares.

What mattered most: The main driver was renewed optimism that Washington and Tehran could move toward a framework agreement to end the conflict. However, the situation remains fragile: Iranian officials questioned the timing, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut complicated the diplomatic backdrop, and the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the market reaction. Any credible reopening of the strait would likely ease energy prices, reduce inflation pressure and support risk assets; any setback could quickly revive the safe-haven bid for the U.S. dollar and keep volatility elevated.

Equities: SpaceX dominated the tape after its public debut, closing 19.2% above the IPO price and briefly becoming one of the largest listed U.S. companies by market value. The move helped sentiment, but also triggered profit-taking in other space-related names that had rallied ahead of the listing. Adobe was a notable laggard after the departure of CFO Dan Durn. Despite Friday’s rebound, investors remain wary of stretched technology valuations and the possibility that recent weakness reflects a broader reset after a strong AI-led rally.

Key points From Charu:

• SpaceX had a successful IPO, but the bigger question is what investors are really buying. SpaceX’s strong debut shows huge demand, but investors are not just buying rockets. They are buying launch services, Starlink, defence infrastructure, Starship, direct-to-cell connectivity and long-term AI/space optionality.
• The valuation is high because markets are pricing SpaceX as a platform, not a traditional aerospace company. At around US$1.77tn at IPO and above US$2tn after listing, investors are paying for future dominance in space infrastructure. That may be justified if Starlink scales and launch costs keep falling, but it also means a lot of success is already priced in.
• SpaceX could make the space economy a mainstream investment theme. The IPO gives public markets a mega-cap anchor for space, with potential spillovers into aerospace, defence, satellites, telecom infrastructure, geospatial data and ETFs. But the key discipline remains the same: the theme can be powerful, but entry price still matters.

Link to full article: SpaceX IPO: Investor Q&A on the world’s most talked-about listing

Rates and FX: The U.S. dollar steadied but remained on track for a weekly decline as investors balanced peace hopes against the prospect of tighter monetary policy. EUR/USD held near a one-week high after the ECB’s rate hike, while USD/JPY hovered around the 160 area, a level that keeps Japanese intervention risk firmly on the radar. Gold’s rally has lost momentum as higher U.S. rate expectations and a stronger dollar challenge the safe-haven narrative, even though geopolitical risk and central-bank demand continue to provide longer-term support.

The Week ahead:  This week’s calendar is heavy. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting will be closely watched for a possible shift away from an easing bias and for updated guidance on inflation, the balance sheet and future hikes. The SNB meets on Thursday, with markets expecting the policy rate to remain at 0.00%; the key question is whether the central bank leans more explicitly against excessive Swiss franc strength as safe-haven flows remain active. The BOJ is also in focus, with markets positioned for a possible 25-basis-point hike to 1.00% as policymakers try to counter persistent inflation pressure and yen weakness.

 Peace headlines can lift equities and weigh on oil, unless something goes wrong from here. while central-bank messaging can quickly reprice rates, currencies and gold. For clients, the most important signals are whether the Middle East de-escalation story holds, whether the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected, whether the SNB comments on the franc, and whether the BOJ can tighten without triggering another sharp move in USD/JPY.

Monday June 15 2026
EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts

Tuesday June 16 2026

UK House Prices, China Retail Sales, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW, Bank of Japan rate decision

Wednesday June 17 2026
UK CPI , EU Inflation. U.S. Retail Sales, FOMC rate decision

Thursday June 18 2026
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Swiss National Bank rate decision, Bank of England rate decision

Friday June 19 2026
Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales