Morning Brew June 12 2026

Good morning.

News that Donald Trump cancelled already scheduled strikes against Iran and announced once again that negotiations were going well sent risk sentiment surging. Iran said it is still assessing the agreement, but yesterday Reuters reported that Iranian officials said talks were progressing. According to CNN, this is the 39th time Trump has announced an agreement, so take this with a pinch of salt.

US stocks jumped on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 1.8%, the Nasdaq up 2.5%, and the Dow gaining 930 points. Tech shares led the advance ahead of SpaceX’s IPO: Micron rose 11%, AMD 8%, Lam Research 12.7%, and Intel more than 10% after a BofA upgrade. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 7.9%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since April 2025. Oracle fell nearly 9% on cloud revenue and AI cost concerns. Adobe beat fiscal Q2 2026 estimates, driven by strong demand for its AI tools; however, the departure of a key executive weighed on sentiment, and the stock fell 5.5% post-market. Volume on US exchanges was 21.41 billion shares, compared with the 20.7 billion average.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 3.2%, led by a 7.4% surge in South Korea's KOSPI. The Nikkei gained 4%, and the DAX is seen at 24,600.

WTI crude futures were last down 1.2% at $86.69 a barrel, on top of a 2.6% drop overnight. Brent dropped 1.1% to $89.40 per barrel. According to reports, China`s May oil imports slumped 29% to their lowest in eight years at 7.8 million bpd, following a 20% tumble in April.

The USD Index fell to 99.34 as EURUSD rose to 1.1570 and GBPUSD to 1.3415, while USDJPY fell to 160.25. Gold rose to 4,190 and silver to 66.90.

US 10-year yields are at 4.46%, while the probability of a rate hike this year is seen at 50%.

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the first hike since 2023, citing inflation pressures from the Iran war and prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The ECB reiterated it will not pre-commit to future action; markets are pricing another 25bp move in September.

Producer prices rose 1.1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year, the fastest pace since November 2022

British defence minister John Healey resigned over military spending, accusing the Prime Minister of failing to commit sufficient resources that are needed to keep the country safe

We are heading into a massively important few days:

• IPOs
• Will a ceasefire in Iran be announced?
• Will Switzerland accept or reject the initiative to limit the population to 10 million?

While the 10 million limit would come very close to making our outrageous prediction come true, it would likely weigh on the Swiss economy.

The opening on Sunday night or Monday could be volatile, so take that into consideration if you are trading actively.

Friday, June 12
UK industrial production, UK GDP, U.S. Michigan sentiment,

Monday, June 15

EU trade balance, US industrial production

Tuesday, June 16

China retail sales, Italy CPI, Germany ZEW, US housing starts, Bank of Japan rate announcement.