Morning Brew July 22 2026

Good morning.

This morning, markets are showing an unusual combination: risk appetite is improving, while the U.S. dollar is also stronger.

Wall Street closed higher, with the Dow up 0.74%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.89%, and the Nasdaq advancing 1.29%. Volumes were light, with 16.14 billion shares traded versus the 20-day average of 19.56 billion. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced, led by a 2.35% rally in information technology. Sandisk rose 14.3%, Western Digital gained 12.5%, Micron Technology advanced 12.2%, and Hasbro jumped 8.8%.

On the downside, MSCI was the benchmark’s second-biggest loser, falling 10% after the index provider raised its full-year operating expense forecast.

The focus this week now turns to earnings from Alphabet, Intel, Texas Instruments, Tesla and IBM. IBM will be watched particularly closely after last week’s sharp drop.

Japan remains firmly in focus after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the country will take decisive action in the currency market if needed.

Sterling is also testing support. It has fallen from a one-year high against the euro and slipped through its 200-day moving average to around 1.3380 against the U.S. dollar.

Brent crude touched a six-week high of USD 92.67 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. yields remained steady after selling along the curve pushed the 30-year yield to a two-month high of 5.15% on Tuesday. Whenever the 30-year yield moves above 5%, it tends to ripple through global markets, raising the bar for riskier assets and supporting the dollar. A 20-year Treasury auction will be in focus later today.

The U.S. 10-year yield touched its highest level since May on Tuesday at 4.64% and held around that level in Asian trading, adding further pressure on the yen.

The ECB will decide on rates tomorrow, but markets assign an 85% probability to no change.

Gold and silver remain strong at 4,131 and 59.70, helped by hopes that the lows may be behind us. A break above the 50-day moving averages would be needed to confirm that the downtrend is over, but those levels remain some distance away at 4,250 for gold and 66 for silver.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that the United States is still willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis, but that Tehran is not serious about talks.

Tonight after the close, earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM and Texas Instruments will be the key market movers.

Big Tech earnings: Five numbers that matter more than the EPS beat

Key points:

• The AI investment case faces its next major test as Big Tech reports. Investors need evidence that record spending is translating into stronger revenue, margins and cash flow.
• An EPS beat alone will not be enough. The five numbers to watch are revenue growth, capex, profit margins, free cash flow and forward guidance.
• The market may reward capital discipline over spending ambition. The winners will be those turning AI infrastructure into sustainable returns without repeatedly raising the investment bill.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Macro: UK CPI; U.S. S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI.
Central banks / speakers: ECB Governing Council monetary-policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.
Corporate earnings: Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Philip Morris, AT&T, GE Vernova.

Thursday, July 23, 2026
Macro: Australia labour-market data; euro-area government deficit/debt data; U.S. initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: ECB rate decision at 14:15 CET, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 14:45 CET.
Corporate earnings: Intel, SAP, RTX, T-Mobile US, Thermo Fisher, TotalEnergies, Blackstone, Union Pacific.

Friday, July 24, 2026
Macro: UK retail sales; flash PMIs from Germany, the euro area, the UK and the U.S.
Central banks / speakers: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and Consumer Expectations Survey; Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions.
Corporate earnings: American Express, Verizon, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare, Canadian National Railway.