Morning Brew January 20 2024

Good morning,

We are heading into a very special week that will be driven by anything around the Trump inaugurations and the first steps of his administration. It is expected Trump will take the Vow at 18 CET indoors at the capitol and it is expected that he will start his term with a number of executive orders around tariffs, immigration and also TikTok. His will be the absolute center of attention. Donald Trump said he had a very good discussion with President Xi.

In Davos,  the World Economic Forum – usually the center of attention - is taking the backseat as all eyes are on Washington.

TikTok was switched off on Saturday and then started again after Donald Trump indicated he would aim to keep the service running in the US. There will likely be a US co-owner in the near future, Meta or X could be interested candidates?

The Trump Meme Coin reached a market cap of more than 9 bio USD.

The ceasefire in Gaza took effect yesterday with initial hostages and prisoner release.

China left it`s policy rates unchanged.

In Markets, Bitcoin soared to 108k over the weekend while Ethereum is failing to gain traction. The USD Index hovers near 109

Equities closed strongly on Friday, with the Dow+0.8%, the S&P500 at +1% and the Nasdaq +1.5%, the Semiconductor Index rose 2.8%. Volumes were roughly in line with the average.

Gold and Silver took a beating on Friday but held above key supports, it will be interesting to see how precious metals fare in the new administration.

The implementation of US Policies will be the key market movers over the next few weeks and traders will have to adjust to government by social media again, meaning there is an announcement on X or truth social and then details will follow afterwards and expectations adjusted.

As John Hardy pointed out in the quarterly outlook, many goals will be difficult to combine and sometimes contractor. The actual implementation will be key.

Monday:

Chinese Rate decision, US Market Holiday, Trump Inauguration,
Tuesday
UK Labor Data, Germany  ZEW, Canada CPI
Charles Schwab 3m, Netflix, Interactive Brokers,
Wednesday
P&G, Abott, Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, Travelers, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa,
Thursday
Japan Trade,  France Business Climate Norway & Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims,  EU Consumer Confidence
GE Aerospace, American Airlines, Texas Instruments,
Friday
Australia PMI  Japan CPI  & Rate Decision Global PMI
Verizon, American Express, Ericsson
Christine Lagarde and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speak at Davos