Morning Brew January 17 2025

Good morning,

The last trading day under the Biden Administration has arrived  - Monday is a US Market holiday and Tuesday the new administration will be in power.

Today, there is little on the agenda that should be severely market-moving. The EU inflation data at 11 CET and the US industrial production figures could be of interest if there is a significant surprise, but normally they aren't. We could either see a rather dull day, profit-taking ahead of the inauguration, or FOMO to be in position for a move higher.

Charu wrote a great article what do expect in the near future:

What does Trump’s Inauguration Mean for Your Portfolio?

  Volatility Is Inevitable. Don’t Panic. Market swings are common during times of political change, such as Trump's inauguration. Investors should evaluate their portfolios, assess their risk exposure, and maintain a balanced mix of investments to weather both market rallies and downturns.

  Watch Sectors Likely to Move. Trump's proposed policies could benefit certain sectors like infrastructure, industrials, and financials, while others like healthcare and technology might face challenges. Investors should assess opportunities in sectors that align with their long-term strategy.

  Think Beyond the Headlines. Markets don't always respond predictably to news about trade wars, tax policies, or deregulation. Investors should focus on fundamentals, invest in strong companies, use dollar-cost averaging, and keep cash reserves to take advantage of opportunities during market dips.

Yesterday, we saw a consolidation day where yields receded a little, Equities traded a little lower with the Dow giving up 0.16%,  the S&P -0.21%, and the Nasdaq -0.89%, Apple fell behind in China`s sales stats and the share fell 4% while on the positive side3, Morgan Stanley came with stellar results, more than doubling it`s profit and gained 4%-.

The Dax is at new all time highs with it`s eyes on the 21k!

Christopher Waller spoke dovish as inflation was likely to continue to ease, the incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, advocated for the USD to remain the world's reserve currency, the Fed remain  independent tougher sanctions on Russia.

Israel is apparently willing to approve the ceasefire deal with Hamas and

In the US, TiktTok is center of attention as 160 Users are fearing a shutdown.

Over night we had good data out of China where the GDP came at 5.4% vs 5% expected and Retail Sales 3.7% vs 3.5% expected. Just now the UK published disappointing retail sales at 3.6% vs 4.2% expected.

The Pund fell to 1.2180, the USD Index is at 109.20, EURUSD 1.0280 USDJPY 155.60. Traders expect a 25 basis point rate hike next week with 80% probability

Bitcoin rose above 100k yesterday and Gold breached the 2700 again, Silver needs to tackle the 31 for more upside potential, currently we are trading at 30.65.

Let us see what the day brings!

Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet

Physically Settled Futures

• AEXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
• FCEF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
• MCAF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 0700 UTC
• OBFF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
• MFXIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
• MFMIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
• OMXC25F5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1555 UTC
• OMXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1625 UTC
• WBSG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
• MCLG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
• QMG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
• KUF5 will expire on 20-Jan at 0600 UTC
• CLG5 will expire on 21-Jan at 1600 UTC
• VXF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
• VXMF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
• FVSF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1100 UTC
• TWNF5 will expire on 23-Jan at 0550 UTC
• ECOG5 will expire on 24-Jan at 1000 UTC