Morning Brew January 15 2026

Good morning,

• Greenland tensions rise: U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that Greenland is vital for U.S. national security and NATO, referencing the “Golden Dome.” Diplomatic engagement has intensified, with Denmark and Greenland meeting JD Vance, while reports indicate Germany plans to deploy soldiers to Greenland.
• Federal Reserve leadership: Trump stated he has no immediate plans to dismiss Jerome Powell, despite an ongoing DOJ investigation, while leaving options open (“too early to say”).

• AI chip tariffs: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on select AI chips (Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X) to strengthen domestic semiconductor production and reduce national‑security exposure to foreign suppliers.

Macro Data

• Retail Sales: November retail sales rose 0.6% (vs. 0.4% expected), the strongest reading since July. Gains were fueled by autos, holiday shopping, sporting goods, gasoline, building materials and miscellaneous retail.The GDP‑relevant control group grew 0.4%.
• Housing Market: Existing home sales jumped 5.1% in December to 4.35 million, a ~3‑year high.Inventory declined 18.1%, tightening supply to 3.3 months.Median price increased 0.4% to $405,400.NAR notes improving affordability amid easing mortgage rates and tempered price gains.

Corporate & Earnings

• TSMC: Delivered a 35% YoY increase in Q4 profit — reinforcing its position as the world’s dominant supplier of advanced AI chips, including for Nvidia.
• Equities under pressure: Tech and banks dragged indices lower despite muted index moves (Dow –0.1%, S&P –0.5%, Nasdaq flat).
• Notably, trading volumes were 35% above average, indicating institutional repositioning or severe nervousnes
• The S&P 500 remains capped near the 7,000 level, a key resistance for broader bullish confirmation.

FX & Commodities

• Muted FX volatility: EURUSD trading at 1.1635,GBPUSD at 1.3430,USDJPY at 158.50.
• The past 10‑day range in EURUSD and DXY is roughly half the long‑term average, reflecting a lack of directional conviction.

• Precious Metals Correction: Silver –4.7%, Gold –0.5%, Platinum –3.8% as traders take profits.
• Ole highlights silver’s transformation from monetary hedge to industrial powerhouse:
• Silver has more than doubled in 2025, hitting near USD 60 amid tight supply, strong industrial demand (solar, EVs, AI/datacentres) and structural deficits.
• Bullish outlook into 2026 remains valid but faces risks from policy shifts and cooling AI demand.

Looking Ahead

• Key earnings: BlackRock results will offer important insight into the sustainability of passive‑investment inflows — a structural driver of recent market resilience.
• Geopolitical risk:
• The Iran situation remains highly unstable, with the possibility of U.S. involvement raising concerns in China and Russia.
• U.S. politics & tariffs likely remain major volatility catalysts in the sessions ahead.

• Thursday January15^th
• Data: UK GDP EU Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
• Earnings: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, First Horizon, Blackrock,
• Central Bankers:Bostic, Barr, Barkin.
• Friday January16^th
• Data: Gernany Inflation, US Industrial Producion
• Earnings: Statestreet
• Central Bankers: Bowman, Jefferson