Morning Brew February 23 2026

Good morning

After the tariff verdict and Trumps following outburst, Charu took a look at the consequences for markets:

• what happened (and why the legal/policy distinction matters),
• the macro implications (growth, fiscal risk, and tariff dispersion across countries),
• and the cross-asset market expressions traders are watching (indices, FX, precious metals, and futures).

Why this matters now:

• we are seeing more dispersion across regions and asset classes,
• safe-haven FX and precious metals are reacting alongside equity rotations,
• and policy headlines are moving markets faster than traditional macro data in the near term.

Read the full note here: Tariff volatility is back: How traders are positioning across equities, FX, metals and futures

On Friday , Stock Performance: U.S. markets ended the week on a positive note. Major stocks like Alphabet (+3.7%), Amazon (+2.6%), and Apple (+1.5%) contributed to gains following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's global tariffs. Shares of Oracle have fallen over 55% from their 52-week high of $345.72 on concern over the company’s aggressive capital spending plans, its heavy reliance on a single customer, and lingering questions about how it will finance the infrastructure required to meet surging demand. The S&P 500 wrapped up at 6,909.51 (+0.69%), Nasdaq at 22,886.07 (+0.90%), and Dow at 49,625.97 (+0.47%). For the week ,  the S&P 500 increased by 1.07% the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% the Dow edged up by 0.25%...

This morning we are lower again with the   US Indexes indicated 0.6 – 0.9% lower, the GER40 is seen at 25100.

The U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% for Q4 2025, expected was 3%, reflecting a deceleration. Meanwhile, inflation is heating up, which puts the Fed firmly between a rock and a hard place.  It also means that basically everything that happened on Friday except the rise in Equities was against him.

Commodities: Gold pushed over 2% higher, supported by the softer GDP data, while silver surged by 7.6%. Platinum also gained traction, rising by 3.6%. Silver broke the important 86.05 Fibonacci level. This morning we are trading at 5150 and 86.60 after overnight highs at 87.80 and 5175. Silver is again looking stretched, up 12% in a week.

The USD Index is trading at 97.37 , showing some volatility after the tariff ruling:

• EUR/USD settled at 1.1780 now 1.1835,
• USD/JPY marked at 155.05 154.35
• GBP/USD is 1.3530

Investor attention is shifting to Nvidia reporting earnings on Wednesday after the close. It will either calm the AI investors – or not . Nvidia, holding substantial influence in major indices, is forecast to show a significant earnings increase.

Besides Nvidia, the calendar for this week is relatively free scheduled market moving events – Trade policies as Geopolitics may well be the driver behind markets. Iran remains in the spotlight and the State of the Union Address tomorrow will be of great interest. 

Have a great week ahead!

February 23, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• Germany: Ifo Expectations New (89.5)
• United States: Factory Orders MM (2.7%)
• Earnings Releases:
• Before Open: GeneDx, Axsome, Dominion Energy
• After Close: Hims & Hers, BWX Technologies
• Waller speaks

February 24, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• China (Mainland): Loan Prime Rate 1Y (3.00%), Loan Prime Rate 5Y (3.50%)
• France: Business Climate Overall (99)
• Hungary: Hungary Base Rate (6.50%)
• United States: Consumer Confidence (84.5)
• Earnings Releases:
• Before Open: Home Depot, DigitalOcean
• After Close: AMC Entertainment, Mercado Libre
• Trump delivers state of the Union address, Golsbee, Bostic and Collins,

February 25, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• Japan: Service PPI (2.60%)
• Australia: CPI MM (1.00%)
• Euro Zone: HICP Final MM (0.2%), HICP Final YY (1.7%)
• Earnings Releases:
• Before Open: Hut 8 Mining, TJX Companies
• After Close: Nvidia, Salesforce
• Barkin, Musalek

February 26, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• Japan: Leading Indicator Revised (0.3)
• Euro Zone: Consumer Confidence Final (-12.2)
• Canada: Business Barometer (59.47)
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims (206k)
• Earnings Releases:
• Before Open: Vistra Energy, ACM Research
• After Close: Celsius Holdings, Dell Technologies

February 27, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• Japan: CPI, Overall Tokyo (1.5%)
• Denmark: Unemployment Rate (2.6%)
• France: GDP QQ Final, CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY, Unemployment Class-A SA
• Switzerland: KOF Indicator (102.5), Official Reserves Assets CHF (852,606.51M)
• Germany: Unemployment Rate SA (6.3%), CPI Prelim YY (2.1%)
• Canada: GDP Annualized (2.6%), GDP (0.0%)
• Earnings Releases:
• Before Open: D-Wave Quantum, Energy Fuels
• After Close: 1stdibs.com, Endeavour Silver

March 1, 2026

• Economic Indicators:
• Australia: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (51.5)