Morning Brew February 20 2026

Good morning

President Donald Trump has issued a warning to Iran, stating that they have 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on their nuclear program or face severe consequences. This has added to existing geopolitical tensions,boosting Oil and precious metals. 

• US Trade Deficit: The trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December 2025, exceeding forecasts of $55.5 billion. Exports declined by 1.7% while imports rose 3.6%, indicating that recent US tariffs have not provided immediate relief.
• Equities: US stocks slipped, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, the Nasdaq falling 0.4%, and the Dow declining 0.6%. Energy stocks rose on Iran-related tensions and Trump's comments, while banks came under pressure due to higher yields. Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in assets, returning proceeds to investors, but the company's shares dropped 5.9% for the day, marking a steep decline over the past year. Larger asset managers Apollo and Ares also saw share price drops.
• Retail Sector: Walmart's new CEO, John Furner, set a cautious tone for the year ahead, citing ongoing consumer fragility despite steady online-driven sales. Walmart shares slipped by approximately 1.5%.
• Trading Volume: Activity on US exchanges remained subdued, with 16.4 billion shares traded versus an average of 20.5 billion.
• Europe: Airbus shares fell 7% after missing delivery targets.
• Commodities:
• Oil: Held near a six-month high, with WTI around $67 and Brent near $72. Price strength follows Trump's warnings to Iran and increased US military presence in the Middle East.
• Gold: Stabilized near $5,000 an ounce after a 2% rise over two days, driven by Middle East risks. Silver trades at $78.75.
• Currency & Yields: US 10-year yields stand at 4.07%. The USD Index is 97.98, with EURUSD at 1.1750, GBPUSD at 1.3440, and USDJPY at 155.25. The Swiss franc remains firm against both the Euro and USD.
• Crypto remains weak at 67k and ETH at 1950

International Highlights

• Japan: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has pledged to move away from strict fiscal austerity, aiming for increased long-term investment and economic revitalization.
• UK: The arrest of former Prince Andrew is making headlines, causing unease among global elites. The UK youth unemployment rate reached a 10-year high at 16.1% in Q4 2025.

Today is data-heavy, with key releases such as the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator, US GDP, UK Retail Sales, and international PMI figures. The PCE is expected at 2.8%, Core PCE at 2.9%, and GDP at 3% (down from 4.4% prior, following recent shutdowns). A decision from the US Supreme Court on tariffs may also be announced and could prove significant.

Geopolitical risks—primarily surrounding US-Iran relations—continue to drive uncertainty and volatility, especially in energy and precious metals markets. Economic data releases and policy decisions will shape near-term sentiment

On Monday, China will be back at the table after the Chinese New Year Holiday

Economic Events

• Japan CPI
• US: GDP Q4 final, PCE inflation (key).
• Germany/Eurozone/UK/US: Flash PMIs.
• UK: Retail sales.
• China Markets closed