Morning Brew February 12 2026

Good morning,

Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data yesterday have shelved hopes for three rate cuts for now. The year is currently priced for 50 basis points worth of cuts, down from more than 60 basis points yesterday morning. An initial cut is now anticipated between June and July—after Jerome Powell's term.

10-year yields rose off the lows to 4.18%, firmly back in the range. The USD Index is at 96.93, EURUSD at 1.1865, GBPUSD at 1.3620, and USDJPY at 153.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% on Wednesday, while the Dow slipped 0.1% from record highs, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. AI hardware outperformed, while software lagged. Zillow tumbled 16.5% after earnings. Shopify was also down 6.7% after missing earnings but approved $2 billion in buybacks. In after-hours trading, Cisco fell 7% after reporting weaker gross margins due to higher memory chip prices. Kraft was flat after reporting mixed results, with revenue declining 3.4% and pausing business separation plans. McDonald's earnings of $3.12 per share beat estimates.

Ruben wrote: Software stocks look like they are being asked to justify their existence. That sounds harsh, but it is basically the current mood among investors. The trigger is not “bad software.” It is a new fear: artificial intelligence (AI) makes people more productive, so companies may need fewer software licenses. Think of AI as the new colleague who does not sleep. Great for output. Awkward for seat counts. https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/equities/saasdisruptionrisk-11022026

The Nikkei share average broke past 58,000 for the first time on Thursday, joining in a rare triple rally with government bonds.

Thyssenkrupp on Thursday unveiled €401 million ($477 million) in expenses to fund far-reaching job cuts at its steel division.

Top brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev beat forecasts for fourth-quarter profits, revenues, and volumes on Thursday.

Bitcoin is holding below $70,000, now at $67,000. There are reports that Bitcoin miners are moving out of the crypto space and putting their equipment to use in AI, as the technology is largely the same.

Gold and silver rose strongly yesterday only to sell off after the nonfarm payrolls report. We are currently trading at 5,070 and 84. The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday may be particularly interesting, as the important Shanghai Metal Exchange will be closed all next week. This could cause volatility today and tomorrow.

According to Reuters, CME Group is working on a plan to launch the world's first futures contract in rare earths, a move that would allow governments, companies, and banks to hedge exposure.

Oil held gains as U.S.–Iran tensions overshadowed swelling supply, with WTI near $65 after a >1% rise and Brent above $69.

For traders of the Swiss franc, the Swiss CPI is of interest today at 9:00, expected at 0.1%. The SNB is expected to hold rates unchanged through the year.

UK GDP and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are typically not too critical unless there is a significant surprise.

If you are superstitious, remember tomorrow is Friday the 13🙂

Trade safely.

Thursday, 12 Feb 2026
United States: Existing Home Sales (Jan)

United Kingdom: GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (Dec), Trade Balance (Dec)

Switzerland: CPI (Jan)

Earnings: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2025, Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 2025, Applied Materials (AMAT) Q4 2025, Pinterest (PINS) Q4 2025, other notable mid-caps per full calendar

Friday, 13 Feb 2026

United States: CPI & Core CPI (Jan)

Eurozone: GDP Q4 (2nd estimate), Trade Balance (Dec)

Brazil: Retail or inflation indicator (Jan), depending on official schedule

Earnings: NatWest Group (NWG) Q4 2025, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Q4 2025, Deere & Company (DE) Q4 2025, Arbor Realty (ABR) Q4 2025, other scheduled mid-caps