Morning Brew August 25 2026

Good morning.                

Markets are waiting for tomorrow, with little progress on either Iran or the U.S.–Canada tariff dispute.

The U.S. Treasury sanctioned nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks. The measures target five areas: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, as well as a wider network of brokers and shadow-fleet vessels.

The tariff dispute between the U.S. and Canada has shown no progress and continues to escalate, putting one of the world’s most integrated international supply chains under pressure.

U.S. equities closed mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,652.86 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% to 25,980.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% to 53,417.16.Semiconductors were the main drag. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Micron Technology lost 5.8% and Broadcom declined 2.6%, weighing on the S&P 500 Information Technology index.

CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could tap the Treasury’s near USD 1 trillion General Account to help fund bond buybacks. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield nevertheless remained above 5%.

Separately, President Donald Trump warned that tariffs on cars, trucks and automotive parts from Canada would rise to 50% from 1 January after trade talks collapsed over the weekend.Ford fell 3.3%, General Motors lost 1.1% and J.B. Hunt Transport dropped about 5.7%.The combination of tariffs, sanctions and long-end yields has sharpened the focus on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

European equities were broadly weaker on Monday, tracking the global risk-off tone from the U.S. chip selloff, Iran-related sanctions and the U.S.–Canada trade dispute. Materials and precious-metals miners outperformed as gold remained firm. Canadian stocks bucked the trend, with the S&P/TSX Composite closing 0.3% higher as gains in gold miners offset weakness in industrials and consumer discretionary names.

Volkswagen is holing a townhall to lay out the strategy and possible factory closures. The strategy of lobbying for an extension of combustion engines fails as gasoline is north of 2 Euros and people switch to EV

In China, Unitree’s shares have fallen roughly 45% since their more than fivefold jump on the Shanghai debut, raising fresh questions about valuation in the humanoid-robot sector.

The dollar is stronger this morning. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1655, GBP/USD around 1.3625 and USD/JPY around 159.25. Gold and silver are pausing near 4,630 and 98.70, while Bitcoin has moved above USD 80,000.

The Treasury will continue its regular debt auctions, including long-dated bonds, despite plans to increase buyback sizes for 10- to 30-year securities. The 10-year yield is around 4.71%, while the 30-year yield is around 5.23%, off the highs but still elevated.

Today’s scheduled agenda is light. The next major events are U.S. inflation and Nvidia earnings tomorrow. Options imply an expected Nvidia share-price move of about 5.4%, equivalent to roughly USD 280 billion in market value, with the company’s market capitalisation around USD 5.05 trillion.

Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Macro: German GDP and Ifo; U.S. new home sales for July.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Zoom.

Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Macro: Australia CPI; U.S. durable goods orders; Q2 GDP; PCE inflation.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Kohl’s, Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP.

Thursday, 27 August 2026
Macro: U.S. initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins.
Corporate earnings: Best Buy, TD Bank, Dollar Tree, Workday.