Morning Brew August 24 2026

Good morning.                

Looking for a calm week? Better go hibernate.

The week ahead is loaded with event risk, both scheduled and unscheduled. Tariffs are back on the radar after the latest escalation between the U.S. and Canada, the Middle East remains highly fragile, long-end yields are still testing investor nerves, and Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print will decide whether the Fed gets any breathing room. Add Nvidia earnings and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and this is unlikely to be a quiet summer week.

• Tariffs: US–Canada trade talks collapsed, and the topic is clearly far from over.
• Iran and the Middle East: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce new sanctions at 18:00 CET, with Iran threatening to retaliate
• Yields: long-end government bond yields remain the market’s quiet stress test. If they keep rising, risk assets will struggle to ignore them.
• U.S. inflation: Wednesday’s print matters because markets want to know whether the Fed can stay patient or whether sticky inflation keeps pressure on rates.
• Nvidia: earnings will be the key test for the near-term future of the AI trade.
• Kevin Warsh: his speech will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s policy approach after the Treasury’s attempt to calm the bond market failed to convince traders.

I expect a nervous week across markets. 

Geopolitics and tariffs are the first layer of risk. The U.S. is preparing what it described as the “greatest financial offensive ever marshalled” against Iran, with sanctions aimed not only at Tehran but also at its trading partners. Bessent’s press conference at 18:00 CET will therefore matter for oil, shipping routes and inflation expectations. Iran’s response was equally direct, warning that Gulf oil exports could be shut down if the economic war continues.

US–Canada trade talks also broke down on Friday, partly over U.S. tariffs on Canadian medium and heavy-duty vehicles. The 50% U.S. tariffs on some Canadian goods have now taken effect, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has vowed to match them on U.S. goods from 8 September.

Equities ended  the week higher but negative on the week . The main U.S. indices finished higher on Friday, helped by stronger services data and a modest easing in immediate worries. But the week was still negative: the S&P 500 fell 1.43%, the Nasdaq lost 2.05%, and the Dow declined 0.85%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week winning streaks, while the Dow posted a second consecutive weekly loss.  Markets are still taking their cue from government bond yields if the long end of the curve keeps pushing higher, risk appetite becomes harder to sustain.

There were still pockets of risk appetite: The higher Crypto price supported crxypto companies:  Robinhood rallied 13.7%, Coinbase gained 8.2%, and Strategy rose 6% as bitcoin advanced 6.4% and touched its highest level since mid-May.

Europe was also heavy last week. The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.6% to 654 points, its second consecutive weekly decline, while the DAX lost 1.1% and the CAC 40 fell 1.76%, its largest weekly decline since July. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on Friday, helped by HSBC and JD Sports, while European electric-vehicle sales continued to accelerate as higher oil prices, subsidies and cheaper models encouraged consumers to shift away from combustion-engine cars.
In Asia, Alibaba came under pressure in Hong Kong after launching a USD 10.2 billion share sale at a sharp discount to fund its AI ambitions. That is another reminder that the AI story remains powerful, but the funding bill keeps getting larger.

Gold climbed above USD 4,638, extending a third consecutive weekly gain after the Treasury’s long-end buyback surprise revived concerns about the dollar and fiscal risk. A break through USD 4,547 despite higher Treasury yields would be a strong signal that investors are still looking for alternatives, with USD 4,769 back in focus.

Oil slipped after a two-week rally as traders waited for the U.S. plan to economically isolate Iran. Brent moved toward USD 93 after a roughly 13% gain, while WTI traded near USD 86.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.34% last week, the highest since 2007, driven by fiscal concerns, heavy long-dated supply and sticky inflation. The Treasury responded by announcing plans to at least double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated securities. The 10-year yield traded around 4.70% on Friday. Bessent’s “Treasury twist” — buying back longer-dated debt while issuing more short-dated bills — has drawn comparisons with Operation Twist, but traders are not convinced it is enough to drag the long end lower. The rise in long yields is global. Japanese 30-year yields have moved above 4% for the first time in their history, UK gilts are near the highest levels since 1998, and European long yields remain uncomfortably elevated.

Nvidia is the earnings event of the week. Charu looked at the five questions investors should ask before Wednesday’s release. The key issue is no longer just whether Nvidia beats expectations. The market also wants to know how big the beat is, what management guides to next, whether margins can hold, whether supply of the highest-end chips is sufficient, how much financing is needed to keep AI spending going, and whether Nvidia can capture more of the AI stack.

Nvidia earnings: Five questions investors should ask

Monday, 24 August 2026
Macro: Light scheduled macro calendar; markets likely to focus on positioning ahead of U.S. housing data, durable goods, GDP, PCE and Jackson Hole later in the week.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.

Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Macro: German GDP and Ifo; U.S. new home sales for July.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Zoom.

Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Macro: Australia CPI; U.S. durable goods orders; Q2 GDP; PCE inflation.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Kohl’s, Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP.

Thursday, 27 August 2026
Macro: U.S. initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins.
Corporate earnings: Best Buy, TD Bank, Dollar Tree, Workday.