Morning Brew August 12 2025

Good Morning,

Markets are showing some nerves ahead of the US Inflation data today. The CPI is expected a little higher than last month due to the tariffs starting to impact. The CPI is expected at  2.8%  after 2.7% last month. The core 3% after 2.9%.

Ahead oof the data, there is a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut, the rate for December 10 is seen a little more than 2 cuts below the current level. A shift in these numbers are the most important outcome to watch. Higher inflation should make rate cuts less likely and weigh on risk sentiment, a lower data point boost as the Fed has more room to cut.

US 1 Year yields are at 3.94, 10`s at 4.27 with EURUSD at 14.1615, GBPUSD 1.3422 and USDJPY 148.30. Gold and Silver are 3350 and 37.95. Bitcoin is failing to hold on to the highs, trading at 118k, Ethereum rises to 4290.

US Equities ended the day slightly lower with the Dow -0.45%, the S&P 500 -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.3%, the Nikkei hits a record.

Chaina and the US agreed to extende the trade-war truce by 90 days,

An institutional investor has parted with 16 million shares of UBS  at 31.46 francs each.

Australia's central bank on Tuesday cut its main cash rate by a quarter point to a two-year low of 3.60%,

Positioning for a Ukraine ceasefire? Market implications from Trump-Putin talks in Alaska

The most important news yesterday was market-unrelated President Donald Trump is deploying 800 National Guard troops to Washington and temporarily taking over the city's police department against statistical proof that the crime rate is relatively low. This seems like an attempt to normalize the use of military force in US Cities.

Secondly, economists and traders are trying to assess the agreement between the US administration and AMD/Nvidia with regards to exports to China.

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund posts 68 bln profit for January-June, lifted by finance stocks

The Intel CEO met with The White house and stocks rose 3%.,

While the CPI release at 14:30 will be the center of attention, also expect political news to move markets.

There is such an amount of dramatically important thins to watch, it is very difficult to decide what to focus on.

From a market perspective, passive investment, buybacks and rates are the key global topics, we also expect the European investment boom to show an impact that so far has not yet materialized – trade safely!

Tuesday August 12

• Australia Rate Decision
• UK Laber Market data
• ZEW,
• US CPI
  Speakers: Barkin, Schmid,

  Earnings: ON, 

   

  Wednesday August 13

• JP Corporate Goods
• DE HICP
• Speakers: Barkin, Golsbee,Bostic,

  Earnings: Marex, Cisco,

  Thursday August 14

• UK GDP
• France CPI
• EU GDP
• US Initital Jobless Claims , PPI Machine Manufacturing
• Speakers: Barkin,
  Earnings: First Majestic, JD.com. JohnDeere

Friday August 15

• Planned Meeting Trump/Putin in Alaska
• China Retail sales
• US Retail Sales, University of Michigan