Morning Brew August 11 2026

Good morning.

Markets start the day with a familiar mix of near-record equities, rising commodity risk and one very important inflation number ahead.

The main overnight story remains the fading hope for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump has hardened his stance toward Iran, while Tehran continues to demand compensation and sanctions relief before any lasting deal. That keeps oil, shipping and inflation firmly in focus. Brent is holding near the high 80s after a sharp move over the last few sessions, and for markets this is no longer just an energy story. It is a supply-chain story, an inflation story and a central-bank story.

Wall Street was mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 closed virtually flat at 7,753.11 after pulling back slightly from Friday’s all-time high, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% and the Dow eased 0.1%. This is not a risk-off market, but it is no longer a clean risk-on market either. The rally still has momentum, but expectations are high, positioning is bullish and this week’s CPI, PPI and retail-sales data will decide whether the softer labour-market print was enough to calm the Fed debate. The September Vix Contract is at this years low.

Europe remains firm. The DAX is trading around 26,360, roughly 100 points below its all-time high, while the Swiss market is also close to record territory. The message is similar on both sides of the Atlantic: trend and momentum are constructive, but the market is waiting for a clearer answer from oil, inflation and rates before extending the move with real conviction.

AI remains the other big story. Nvidia has partnered with several major financial institutions to launch AI compute-financing platforms that could raise more than USD 500 billion in third-party capital. The initiative underlines how large the AI infrastructure buildout has become, but it also revives the key investor concern: demand is real, but the funding bill is enormous, and markets will increasingly ask whether the returns can justify the scale of spending. Jensen Huang said Nvidia may backstop up to USD 125 billion, or around 25% of potential deals. That is a powerful signal of confidence, but also a reminder that the AI trade is becoming more capital intensive and more complex. Investors are no longer only asking who sells the chips. They are asking who finances the data centres, who owns the risk and who ultimately earns the return.

In Switzerland UBS is the focus of attention as we are awaiting news on legislation for the capital requirement change under the "too big to Fail legislation" 

Commodities deserve attention again. Brent crude is holding near USD 87.70 a barrel after a strong four-session move as the Hormuz standoff shows no clear sign of resolution. Copper is also close to record levels above USD 14,000 per tonne, helped by warehouse tightness, stockpiling ahead of possible U.S. Section 232 measures and export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In rates and FX, U.S. 10-year yields are around 4.70%, while the USD Index is near 99.70. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1540, GBP/USD around 1.3510 and USD/JPY close to 159.10. The yen remains the key pressure point. The Bank of Japan is under tight scrutiny: will it hike earlier, continue to intervene in FX, or even reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries? The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady but kept the door open to a further hike, noting that inflation is cooling somewhat faster while upside risks remain. The Australian dollar slipped slightly after the decision.

Gold and silver are consolidating around 4,370 and 64.50. The pullback this morning looks more like hesitation ahead of the U.S. inflation data than a broken trend. With gold above 4,400 earlier and silver volatility still elevated, the next few days will show whether precious metals can extend the breakout or whether stronger yields and a firmer dollar start to bite again.

Today’s scheduled agenda is light, with U.S. existing home sales the main macro item. That leaves the market exposed to headlines: Hormuz, oil, AI financing, yen intervention risk and any sign that Donald Trump is becoming more impatient with the lack of progress in the Middle East. With CPI due tomorrow, traders may not want to push too hard in either direction before the inflation test.

The European heatwave is also worth watching. I expect a measurable impact in economic data over time, especially through agriculture, labour productivity, river transport, energy demand and inflation. Lower river levels can disrupt freight, reduce hydropower output and complicate cooling for nuclear plants. I am keen to hear Ole’s take on the matter.

Charu also took a closer look at Berkshire Hathaway’s latest positioning. The broader message is useful: even in a market dominated by AI and momentum, patient capital is still looking for durable cash flow, strong balance sheets and opportunities where expectations are less stretched.

Berkshire is buying again The latest portfolio moves investors should watch | Saxo

Tuesday, 11 August 2026
Macro: U.S. Existing Home Sales for July; RBA rate decision.
Central banks / speakers: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Super Micro Computer, On Holding, Tencent Music, Sea Limited and selected U.S. retailers.
Wednesday, 12 August 2026
Macro: U.S. Consumer Price Index for July; U.S. Monthly Budget Statement; weekly EIA crude oil inventory data.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Cisco, Cardinal Health, Flutter Entertainment and selected European reporting names.
Thursday, 13 August 2026
Macro: UK GDP; U.S. Producer Price Index for July; U.S. initial jobless claims; EIA natural gas inventories.
Central banks / speakers: Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin speak; Fed balance sheet after the close.
Corporate earnings: Applied Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Alibaba and selected European companies.
Friday, 14 August 2026
Macro: France CPI; euro-area GDP; U.S. retail sales for July; U.S. business inventories; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Baker Hughes rig count.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap earnings focus.