Morning Brew August 10 2026

Good morning.

Risk sentiment starts the week on a constructive but fragile footing. U.S. equities ended Friday on a strong note, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after the latest jobs data showed an unexpected decline in U.S. employment and reduced fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike in September. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq rose 5.2%, and the Dow added 3.0%. The softer labour-market signal has shifted the debate from “how high can rates go?” back toward “how long can the Fed wait?”, but this week’s inflation data will decide how much comfort markets can really take from the payrolls report.

Europe remains firm as well. The DAX is holding above 26,000 and is currently trading around 26,350, while the Swiss SMI is near 14,550 and close to all-time highs. Equity futures are calmer this morning, but the market is clearly waiting for confirmation from U.S. CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday before declaring the latest risk rally more than another relief move.

In FX, the USD Index has slipped to around 99.70, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1550, cable around 1.3495 and USD/JPY close to 158.35. The yen remains the pressure point. The coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention has bought time, but not yet confidence, and traders are still watching whether USD/JPY can stay below the most sensitive levels.

Precious metals remain strong,  Silver is trading around 64.15 after breaking above its 50-day moving average on Friday, while gold is around 4,350. The move is encouraging for gold and silver bulls, but it still needs follow-through. With gold near seven-week highs and silver volatility elevated, the next few sessions will show whether this is a genuine breakout or another failed attempt.

Oil is around 1% higher as the Oman-Iran framework around the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive. That keeps energy markets highly sensitive to every headline from the Gulf, especially after reports that the U.S. continues to control traffic through the chokepoint and that Houthi attacks remain a risk. Bitcoin is trading around 65,000.
The Middle East remains the main geopolitical risk. The Trump administration is still under pressure after failing to deliver a clear breakthrough, while Iran continues to signal that any deal around Hormuz would not necessarily mean an immediate reopening of the route. For markets, this is not only an oil story. It is also a shipping, inflation and supply-chain story.

Iran said it was close to a final pact with Oman defining new shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz, but also repeated that the U.S. must meet additional conditions, including compensation, an end to sanctions and a halt to military threats. At the same time, Israel’s prime minister rejected Donald Trump’s latest Gaza plan, keeping the region far from a clean de-escalation scenario.

The other important global topic is still AI. Apple is reportedly testing memory chips from China’s CXMT across product lines including iPhones and MacBooks, another reminder that the AI boom is creating real pressure in the memory and component supply chain. Tencent’s AI spending will be watched closely this week, while investors continue to ask whether the AI infrastructure cycle can keep delivering visible revenue quickly enough to justify the capital intensity.

Berkshire Hathaway is also back in focus. Greg Abel appears to be putting more of Berkshire’s cash pile to work, with the company reporting stronger-than-expected profit and highlighting fresh equity purchases and buybacks. That matters because Berkshire’s balance sheet has become a useful barometer for how patient value-oriented capital is behaving in a market still dominated by AI, momentum and high valuations.

The economic damage from Europe’s heatwave is also becoming harder to ignore. Lower agricultural harvests, higher transport costs, weaker labour productivity and pressure on tourism in southern Europe are all part of the story. Lower river levels remain particularly important because they can affect transport, hydropower generation and the cooling of nuclear power plants. I am keen to hear Ole’s take on the matter.

The main events this week are U.S. CPI on Wednesday, U.S. PPI and jobless claims on Thursday, and U.S. retail sales plus University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. After Friday’s weak labour-market print, inflation has become even more important: a soft number would support the risk rally, while a sticky number would revive the higher-for-longer debate almost immediately.

For today, the agenda is thin and shifting  rate expectations are likely to drive markets. The bigger risks are political and geopolitical: Hormuz headlines, energy prices, yen intervention risk and any attempt by Donald Trump to shift attention away from the lack of progress in the Middle East. The setup is still constructive, but not comfortable. Trade carefully.

Monday, 10 August 2026

Macro: China CPI and PPI.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap earnings focus.
Tuesday, 11 August 2026
Macro: U.S. Existing Home Sales for July; RBA rate decision.
Central banks / speakers: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.
Corporate earnings:Supermicro, On Tencent Music, Sea Limited and selected U.S. retailers.
Wednesday, 12 August 2026
Macro: U.S. Consumer Price Index for July; U.S. Monthly Budget Statement; weekly EIA crude oil inventory data.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Cisco, Cardinal Health, Flutter Entertainment and selected European reporting names.
Thursday, 13 August 2026
Macro: U$K GDP U.S. Producer Price Index for July; U.S. initial jobless claims; EIA natural gas inventories.
Central banks / speakers: Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin speak; Fed balance sheet after the close.
Corporate earnings: Applied Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Alibaba and selected European companies.
Friday, 14 August 2026
Macro: France CPI EU GDP U.S. retail sales for July; U.S. business inventories; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Baker Hughes rig count.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap earnings focus.