金と銀、利下げ期待後退で守勢に転じる - Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism

以下のゴールドモニターでは、最近の動き、特にドル高と利下げ期待の低下にもかかわらずゴールドが底堅さを維持している点などいくつかの注目すべき展開をまとめています。相関ベースでは、現在最も高い負の相関を示しているのは実質利回り変動とSOFR先物契約の動きです。ドル高、債券利回り上昇、利下げ期待縮小にもかかわらず、年初来の金価格下落が「わずか」2％程度にとどまっているのは、おそらく中東緊張に関連する地政学的懸念と、人民元安や世界で最もパフォーマンスの悪い株式市場のひとつであることに加え、不動産市場危機で資産が減少した中国ミドルクラスによる現物金需要の継続的な強さが要因と考えられます。

一方、ヘッジファンドやCTAなどの運用トレーダーは、4週間の売り越しを経て、1月30日の保有ポジションは7万2000ロット、つまり204トン減少し、年初に保有していたポジションのほぼ半分となりました。ここでも、この売却による価格への影響が限定的 (ネガティブ) であることは、年初からの流出が54トンに達しているETFなどいわゆる「ペーパー」市場では見られない、裏底にある物理需要を浮き彫りにしています。

銀は年初来約6％下落しており、再び重苦しい取引となっています。これは、産業用金属の軟調さが波及していることを示しています。銀は主に金と銅の変動に方向性を左右される金属であり、現在銅は中国の経済見通しに対する懸念から人民元安の影響を受けており、銀にもネガティブな影響を与えています。22ドル直下のサポート水準が維持できなければ、さらなる下落の可能性が高くなります。レジスタンスは、50日移動平均線と200日移動平均線の直前、23.25ドル付近に設定されています。

出典：サクソバンク証券

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過去の「トレーダーのコミットメント」記事：

COT：投機筋は金の上昇をさらに加速させる

Summary:  We keep a bullish outlook for gold and silver, but for now, both metals are likely to remain stuck until we get a better understanding about the timing, pace and depth of future US rate cuts. During the past week, the short-term rates market has gone from pricing in more than six 25 basis points US rate cuts this year to less than five, while bets on the first cut being delivered at the March 20 meeting has slumped to less than 20%. All developments that highlight just how volatile markets can be in the runup to a change in monetary policy.

We keep a bullish outlook for gold and silver, but for now, both metals are likely to remain stuck until we get a better understanding about the timing, pace and depth of future US rate cuts. Until the first cut is delivered, the market may at times run ahead of itself, in the process building up rate cut expectations to levels that leave prices vulnerable to a correction. With that in mind, the short-term direction of gold and silver will continue to be dictated by incoming economic data and their impact on the dollar, yields and not least rate cut expectations. 

During the past week, the short-term rates market has gone from pricing in more than six 25 basis points US rate cuts this year to less than five, while bets on the first cut being delivered at the March 20 meeting has slumped to less than 20%. All developments that highlight just how volatile markets can be in the runup to a change in monetary policy. Following last week’s FOMC meeting Fed Chair Powell said it was not likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence in time for the March meeting to begin rate cuts. He went on to say that given economic growth at a “solid pace,” a "strong" labor market, and continued declines in inflation, the Fed can eventually reduce interest rates carefully.

With these cautious words still ringing, Friday’s strong US job report and Monday’s rebound in ISM Services employment and prices paid brought home the realization that rate cuts may not be delivered at the expected pace, and the market impact has been clear with broad dollar strength taking the Bloomberg Dollar index, which also includes an under-pressure yuan, to a November high while US 10-year Treasury yields surged back towards 4.2% resistance after being rejected near 3.8% last week. 

Precious metal traders trying to navigate this constantly changing outlook has become a relatively painful exercise, especially for those looking for short-term momentum opportunities. As per the gold chart below, the market looks increasingly stuck with physical demand from central banks and retail demand in China and India, as well as Middle East concerns providing a soft floor under market around $2000 while an upside break through $2065 looks difficult until we have a firmer idea about the mentioned timing, pace and depth of incoming rate cuts.