Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: BoJ Finally Interveses
Good morning,
Traders celebrated he rise of Google to the 2 trillion USD Market cap and largely ignored the higher than feared inflation. The Dow rose 0.40%, the S&P 1%, and the Nasdaq 2.% as Alphabet closed 10% higher, Microsoft rose 1.8%, Amazon 3.4% and Nvidia 5.8. This morning the friendly mood prevails with up across the board but he market to watch is Japan at the moment where the Bank of Japan seems to be intervening. In the Sunday open, we exceeded 160 Yen against the USD and then fell 5 yen in the early morning. High was 160,30, Low 155.07 and now 156.60.
EURUSD is 1.0725, GBPUSD 1.2540, Gold and Silver little changed over the weekend at 2331 and 27.25. Bitcoin is in one of it`s sideways phases again at 62300, Oil 83.20.
Elon Musk visited China yesterday and seems to have achieved breakthrough agreements regarding self-driving technology. The Stock will be worth watching today.
For the Fed Preview, the current expectation is no rate-change on Wednesday with a probability of 96%, the first rate cut is priced in in November and by December the rate is seen at -35 bps from current level.
Key events of the coming week will be the Refinancing announcement by the Fed on Wednesday as well as the US Rate decision on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payroll in Friday, accompanied by other data and risk factors. The rate decision happens when many traders will be off for May 1st holidays, a good opportunity for sharp moves on any surprise comments.
The Middle east remains a source of worry with talks of a truce remaining unsuccessful and an attack on Rafah looming as US Secretary Blinken visits the area.
We further expect Month end adjustments and many expiries.
Monday
- Data Sweden GDP, EU Consumer conf. DE HICP
- Earnings: Petro China and Chinese Banks
Tuesday
- Data China PMI, France CPI, CH KOF, DE Unemployment & GDP, EU HICP& GDP, US Consumer confidence
- Earnings: Amazon, Stryker, AMD, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, HSBC
Wednesday
- Data Japan PMI, US PMI & Rate Decision
- Earnings: QUALCOMM, Mastercard, Pfizer ,
Thursday
- Data US Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Linde, Apple, Amgen, Shell, ConocoPhillips,
Friday
- Data EU unemployment, US Nonfarm Payroll, PMI,
Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
HGK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
RRK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
SIK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
SILK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
XCK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
XKK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
XWK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ZCK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ZLK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ZMK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ZSK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ZWK4 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
SBK4 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
RBK4 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
EBMK4 will expire on 3 May 2024 at 14:00
Expiring CFDs
OILUKJUN24 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
SINGAPOREAPR24 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 15:00
TAIWAN95APR24 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 14:00
HK50APR24 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 14:00
CHINA50APR24 will expire on 29 Apr 2024 at 14:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.