Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good morning,
Equities traded friendly yesterday with all three US Indexes higher in moderate volumes. Tesla and Nvidia the most noteworthy, Nvidia made up for some of Fridays losses and Tesla continued to fall on news the company was lowering prices.
Tesla will report earnings after the bell so consider your positions . Reuters comments. “Tesla is expected to report its lowest gross profit margin in more than six years on Tuesday after a chaotic week that included major layoffs, vehicle price cuts and urgent calls by investors for clarity on product strategy.”
Novartis reported strong results this morning and issued improved guidance for the full fiscal year.
Gold and Silver stuck out yesterday with huge drops, Silver gave up more than 5% and Gold more than two. Silver is now trading near 27.05 support; a further fall would open the way to 26.40.
The USD Index remains near 106 (106.13) with EURUSD at 1.0650, GBPUSD 1.2344 and USDJPY 154.77. The Yen remains weak despite renewed comments from Japanese officials about a looming intervention. If there is no action soon, credibility is gone.
Here great insight from Althea on the upcoming auctions as yields are fairly calm with the 10 year at 4.61. The Expectation for December is currently 40 BPS of rate cuts.
Kim comments on the weakness of semiconductor companies in his technical insights and Peter comments Technology stocks fired a warning shot on Friday ahead of earnings
There is speculation China may be looking to devalue it`s currency, the speculation is fueled by the bleak Chinese economy and the huge imports of commodities.
With US Secretary Blinken visiting China the next three days, the looming ban of TikTok, news that the US is looking to prevent Chinese Banks from supporting Russia and News China is allegedly circumventing US sanctions to acquire top of the line Nvidia chips, expect nervousness.
Today`s sentiment will be driven by earnings, International PMI and most likely the Tesla earnings after the bell.
Consider the amount of risk you want to carry.
Tuesday
- Data International PMI, Secretary Blinken visits China
- Earnings: GM, UPS, GE, Pepsico, Lockheed Martin Spotify, Halliburton, Tesla, Visa, Texas Instruments, Chubb,
Wednesday
- Data AU PMI, DE IFO Index, US Durable Goods Orders, CA Retail Sales
- Earnings: Boeing, AT&T, General Dynamics, Biogen, Meta, Ford, IBM,
Thursday
- Data Turkey Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, GDP Advance
- Earnings: American Airlines, Caterpillar, AstraZeneca, Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Snap, Roku, T-Mobile, Gilead
Friday
- Data US PCE
- Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CTK4 will expire on 23 Apr 2024 at 15:00
OJK4 will expire on 23 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ECOK4 will expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
RCK4 wil expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSMAY24 will expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
Later and less cuts after CPI – Gold and Silver shrug it off