Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
ARM Holdings experienced a significant drop yesterday, breaking through key support levels. The share price has now closed the gap that was created back in February, a feat it attempted several times before but never achieved with a daily close.
Additionally, ARM has fallen below the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area), which previously acted as support. With this breakdown, the next notable support isn't until around USD 94, the upper boundary of the gap area from early February.
The strength indicator RSI closed below the 40 threshold, now indicating negative sentiment and suggesting that lower levels for ARM are likely.
The support at 94.00 is expected to be tested soon. A daily close below 94 could prompt sellers to attempt to close the gap down to 77.00.
For ARM to negate this bearish outlook, a close back above the gap, i.e., a close above 120.16, is necessary. However, to establish an uptrend, a daily close above 135.41 would be required.
Nvidia was rejected at the key resistance level of USD 906.34, failing to resume its uptrend. It is now retesting the gap area between 941.30 and 822.79.
A daily close below 822.79 would confirm a double top-like pattern and could trigger a sell-off down to support around 742.20, with minor support at 771.62.
If the Strength Indciator RSI is closing below 40 it would add to the bearish outlook for Nvidia
To resume its uptrend, Nvidia requires a daily close above 806.34. However, the top and reversal patterns, specifically the two Bearish Engulfing candles, will remain in effect until Nvidia closes above 967.66
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.