Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Many people in their late 40s or early 50s hope they've done everything right: steady work, maybe a mortgage that is half paid, children on their way to independence (hopefully). Yet financial freedom may still feel out of reach. The idea of retiring at 50 sounds tempting, when the stress of constant deadlines begins to outweigh ambition. Still, the dream of retiring so early often seems reserved for people with unimaginable wealth or luck.
That feeling isn't entirely wrong, but it isn't the whole story either. Retiring at 50 doesn't demand perfection, but it does mean understanding what you truly need, how long your money must last, and how to plan for the years between quitting your full-time work and drawing a pension. The path is narrower than it was at 30, but retiring at 50 may be possible if you make a sensible plan.
Retiring early at 50 means shaping a life where paid work becomes optional. Some people reduce hours or shift into projects that feel meaningful, while others take long breaks before deciding what comes next. Early retirement at this age requires gaining control over when and how to work.
The main challenge is longevity. Living another 30 to 40 years means your savings must stretch further than for a traditional retirement. Rising healthcare costs and delayed pension access add pressure, but higher income potential and clearer financial habits help balance it. People in their 50s often earn their peak salaries and sometimes even have fewer family expenses, which makes structured saving and investment planning more effective than previous chapters of life. With a realistic target and discipline, retiring at 50 can be achievable for those who plan carefully.
The amount you need to retire at 50 depends less on income and more on what your life costs each year. A simple estimate is to multiply annual spending by about 28 to 30 for longer retirements, or around 25 for shorter horizons. This approach, based on the 4% withdrawal rule, assumes your investments continue to grow while you withdraw a small percentage each year.
For someone retiring at 50, the time horizon is longer (often 40 years or more). That means a safer rate is closer to 3.3% to 3.5%. For example, if your annual expenses are EUR 50,000, you would need roughly EUR 1.43 million to EUR 1.52 million in invested assets (assuming a 3.5%–3.3% range).
The table below shows how targets shift with spending levels:
| Annual spending (EUR) | Target savings (3.3–3.5% rate) |
|---|---|
| 40,000 | 1.14–1.21 million |
| 50,000 | 1.43–1.52 million |
| 60,000 | 1.71–1.82 million |
| 80,000 | 2.29–2.42 million |
Several factors can raise or lower this target: children's education, healthcare premiums before age 65, and support for ageing parents. Inflation can also add pressure over time, so aim for extra savings rather than exact numbers. The goal is to create enough room for life changes without threatening your stability.
Reaching financial independence at 50 relies on making some strategic decisions, rather than taking risks. Income-wise, the years leading up to this point are often your strongest, and that offers you the opportunity to act with purpose.
The following steps can hopefully help make that transition more manageable:
List all assets, debts, and future expenses. Include everything from mortgage balances to investment accounts and insurance coverage. Seeing the full picture helps you calculate how far you are from financial independence and what can be adjusted before leaving full-time work.
In some countries, certain retirement plans permit higher annual contribution limits starting at age 50. Check the rules for your specific plan and country. If possible, use them to make the most of your peak earning years. Even a few extra years of accelerated saving can add a significant cushion when markets compound returns over time.
Complex portfolios can become hard to manage once you begin your withdrawals. Consolidate overlapping investments and adjust toward a balanced mix of growth and income assets. A ratio of equities, bonds, and cash reserves that fits your risk tolerance will help your savings last longer.
Clearing high-interest debt or reducing your mortgage balance can help alleviate future stress and lower monthly expenses. Many early retirees prefer to enter this stage debt-free, which makes budgeting simpler and lowers their income needs.
Funds in retirement accounts may be locked until your late 50s. Access ages vary by country and plan. Some plans restrict withdrawals until your late 50s, or allow earlier access, but with extra tax charges. Check your plan's rules and local law. When possible, build a separate pool of accessible savings, such as taxable investments or cash reserves, to cover those years. This buffer prevents the need for early withdrawals and penalties.
The goal is to create a plan sturdy enough to handle change and flexible enough to let you live on your terms.
Early retirement can last more than three decades, so the challenge is to keep money flowing without depleting your savings too quickly.
Here are practical ways that may help make your income last:
A single withdrawal rate rarely fits every year. Markets rise and fall, expenses shift and needs change. Starting around 3.3% and reviewing it every few years keeps withdrawals aligned with reality. After strong market years, you can afford a slight increase; after weak ones, holding steady helps protect your savings.
Many early retirees stay partly engaged in work they enjoy. Consulting, mentoring, or small-scale business projects bring in extra income while keeping purpose and routine. Passive income, such as rent, dividends, or royalties, adds another layer of stability and reduces how much you need to pull from investments.
Retiring before your country’s public healthcare eligibility (if applicable) can mean higher medical costs. Plan ahead by comparing private insurance or national health options. Inflation also erodes long-term budgets, so some investors choose to include assets that adjust for inflation (e.g., inflation-linked bonds) or maintain diversified equity exposure for potential long-run growth — though all investments carry risk and can fall in value. Review taxes on withdrawals and property income yearly to avoid surprises and adjust your spending if needed.
Reaching 50 usually combines a mix of calm and urgency. By now, you've worked hard, built a life, and learned what matters to you. The thought of retirement isn't an escape anymore, but a question of how to live the following decades with a greater sense of purpose.
Financial independence at this stage means being able to slow down, explore what you've postponed, or simply stop trading your time for pressure. The details of your plan will keep changing, but the direction stays clear: less stress and more time that finally belongs to you.
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