Outrageous Predictions
2023: The War Economy

Gone are the days where low interest rates could foster dreams of a harmonious world built on renewable energy, equality and independent central banks. In 2023, world economies will shift into War Economy mode, where sovereign economic gains and self-reliance trump globalisation.

Our 2023 Outrageous Predictions revolve around how countries’ focus on asserting themselves will affect the global economy and political agenda.

What’s your prediction for 2023?

Share your thoughts with the world using #OP23 and see if you can get it right.

  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 1

    Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

    The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 2

    French President Macron resigns

    The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 3

    Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

    As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 4

    EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 5

    A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 6

    UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 7

    Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 8

    OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
  • One of each OP drawing 1000x571 number 9

    USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
  • One of each OP drawing 1000x571 number 10

    Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.

_Inspiration_4
_Inspiration_4

Discover more insights

Discover more insights

Do you want to quickly take the pulse of a market or research ESG-focused investments? From live market updates to in-depth macro analysis, your Saxo account gives you access to impactful insights, directly in your trading platform.

TestimonialImage

270,000+

Daily trades

850,000+

Clients

85+ bn

USD assets under management

20+ bn

USD daily trade volume

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.