Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.

It doesn't feel right waking up to Christmas week looking at the US yield curve steepening like a bad omen as the stock market is at an all-time high. The 2s10s spread has been widening to 2017 levels last week. Both the Global Financial Crisis and the Dot Com bubble have been preceded by a steepening of the yield curve. We expect yields to continue rise this week amid the vote of the $900 billion pandemic relief plan and the 20-year Treasury auction expected today. In the United Kingdom, 10-year Gilt yields may test the 0.10% benchmark bank rate as a new strain of Covid-19 has been found, and an agreement has not been reached regarding Brexit. Last Friday, BOE's Vlieghe said that the UK might need subzero rates leaving room for yields to continue to fall.

Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.

Yesterday, the IMF released its latest report on the global economy and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, updating previous estimates published in April. Without much surprise, the IMF predicts a deeper contraction in global economy this year with recession reaching -4.9% followed by a weaker rebound next year at +5,4% vs prior +5,8%. France is ranked among the worst performing economies in 2020, with a GDP drop reaching minus -12.5% - which seems a bit too pessimistic considering that France suffered less from lockdown than initially anticipated.