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One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Tue, 05 May 2026 10:53:00 Z

One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Why Spreading Risk Across Multiple Asset Types Can Matter for Investors

For many investors, investing often starts with a single product type. We tend to invest in things we already know, and for many people, that will be stocks. That’s a natural place to begin. But over time, market ups and downs can highlight an important question: What happens when everything you own moves in the same direction at the same time?

One way investors try to manage this challenge is by spreading risk across multiple asset types. This concept is often referred to as multi-asset or multi-product investing. Recent data from Saxo’s own client base offers useful insight into how this approach has played out in practice.

What Saxo’s Client Data Shows

You have most likely already heard about diversification and the importance of a diversified portfolio, so let’s compare the performance of single-asset vs. multi-asset portfolios. Looking at five years of data from Saxo’s clients, a clear pattern emerges:
Clients who invested across multiple product types tended, on average, to experience more stable and often stronger outcomes than those who focused on a single product type.

In this context:

Single-product investors are clients who invest in just one type of product within their portfolio (for example, only stocks).
Multi-product investors, also referred to as multi-asset investors, are clients who invest across multiple product types (for example, a combination of stocks, ETFs, or other instruments).

Performance is measured as profit or loss over the year relative to the investor’s average total assets, providing a consistent basis for comparison.

A Smoother Ride Through Different Market Conditions

The differences become particularly visible during challenging market periods. In 2022, markets were difficult across the globe. Saxo’s data shows that:

Single-asset investors experienced a deeper average decline.
Multi-asset investors also faced losses, but the drawdown was meaningfully smaller.

This highlights an important point for less experienced investors:
when markets fall sharply, having exposure to more than one type of asset can help reduce the impact of extreme movements.

Participation When Markets Recover

In more positive market years, the data shows that multi-asset investors did not “miss out” on recovery phases.

In 2023, 2024, and 2025, multi-product investors, on average, achieved higher annual performance figures than single-product investors.
This suggests that diversification doesn’t necessarily mean giving up growth. A diversified portfolio can still allow participation when markets move upward, while helping manage downside risk.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors who are not monitoring markets every day or adjusting positions frequently, diversification can play an important role in risk management rather than return maximisation.

Based on Saxo’s client data, spreading investments across different product types may help:

Reduce the severity of losses in difficult market environments
Smooth overall portfolio performance from year to year
Lower the emotional stress that can come from large swings in portfolio value

This can be especially relevant for retail investors with limited market experience, where sharp losses may lead to emotional decision-making at the wrong time.

What multi-asset investing is - and isn’t

It’s important to be clear about what this data does not imply.

Diversification does not eliminate risk
Losses can still occur, even in diversified portfolios
Past outcomes do not guarantee future results

What the data does show is that, historically, Saxo clients who spread their investments across multiple product types tended to experience more resilient outcomes over time, compared to those concentrated in a single product.

In Summary

Saxo’s client data over the past five years suggests that:

Investing across multiple product types has historically been associated with more stable and often stronger outcomes
Diversification may help soften the impact of difficult market years
A multi-asset approach can support long-term investing by managing risk rather than relying on a single market outcome

For retail investors, understanding how different assets behave — and why spreading risk can matter — is a key step toward building confidence in navigating financial markets.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Benjamin Faltz

Head of Video Content

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Stocks

Saxo Market Compass - 4 May 2026

Mon, 04 May 2026 16:49:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 4 May 2026

Markets navigated a dense mix of earnings, central bank decisions, and geopolitical tension, with oil acting as the dominant macro driver throughout the week.

US equities oscillated early before finishing the week firmly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,230 by 1 May, as strong Big Tech earnings – led by Alphabet’s 10% surge – offset macro headwinds from surging oil prices and Meta’s capex-driven 8.6% decline. The VIX moved between 16.99 and 18.81, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions, while options flow shifted from early-week defensive positioning toward selective accumulation across energy, metals, and individual earnings names.

By week’s end, sentiment stabilised as earnings delivered and oil briefly eased, but underlying uncertainty remains tied to energy markets and policy direction.

Equities

Earnings resilience offsets macro noise, but leadership remains narrow.

US – earnings resilience offsets macro noise: US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong, with the S&P 500 moving from 7,138 (28 April) to 7,209 (30 April) and 7,230 (1 May). Big Tech dominated: Alphabet surged 10.0% (30 April) on cloud strength, while Meta dropped 8.6% (30 April) on capex concerns. Nvidia’s earlier record high (27 April) highlighted continued AI momentum, though sentiment briefly softened mid-week.
Europe & Asia – energy pressure vs selective strength: European equities struggled mid-week as oil surged and rate-hike expectations resurfaced, before rebounding into month-end. Local markets showed dispersion, with healthcare and industrials mixed, while Asia remained led by Korea’s AI-driven rally and more uneven performance in China and Japan.

Market pulse: Earnings remain supportive, but leadership is narrow and sensitive to macro inputs.

Looking ahead – equities

Focus shifts from Big Tech to consumer-facing earnings and macro validation. US earnings from Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will test demand resilience, while the US jobs report will determine whether strong growth can sustain current equity levels.

Volatility

Event risk priced, but not feared.

VIX range – controlled conditions: Volatility remained contained despite heavy catalysts. The VIX moved between 18.02 (27 April), 17.83 (28 April), and peaked at 18.81 (29 April) before easing to 16.99 (1 May). Short-term measures spiked around key events but quickly normalised, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions.
Implied moves and skew: Options pricing implied weekly moves around ±1.0–1.35%, while skew shifted between neutral and defensive, ending the week with a downside bias.

Market pulse: Volatility is stable, but hedging demand remains persistent.

Looking ahead – volatility

The April US jobs report and ongoing oil developments are the next volatility catalysts. Any upside surprise in inflation or labour strength could push implied volatility higher again, particularly in short-dated options.

Options sentiment

Selective upside returns, but hedging remains embedded.

The options market shifted from early-week protection toward more selective accumulation, though conviction never fully broadened. Initial positioning was defensive, with index hedging and sector-level protection dominating, particularly in financials and metals.

That stance evolved into a more balanced setup, with investors expressing views through income strategies, volatility trades, and paired hedges. Energy and metals both transitioned toward cautiously bullish positioning, while equities showed selective upside participation alongside continued protection.

Market pulse: Investors leaned into upside selectively, but maintained protection as conviction remained narrow.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Options flow will likely remain dispersion-driven, with investors targeting individual earnings names rather than broad index exposure. Watch for increased short-dated activity around consumer earnings and macro releases.

Digital assets

Stable price action, selective institutional flows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Crypto markets tracked macro sentiment but showed resilience. Bitcoin traded between USD 75,700 and USD 80,000, while Ethereum held near USD 2,200–2,380. ETF flows were mixed mid-week before turning positive into Friday, reflecting improving sentiment.
Options and altcoins: Options activity remained balanced, combining downside hedging with selective upside positioning, while altcoins followed broader risk trends.

Market pulse: Crypto is constructive, but still dependent on macro direction and liquidity.

Looking ahead – digital assets

ETF flows and macro data will remain key drivers. A stable or softer rates outlook could support further upside, while renewed volatility in equities or yields may quickly feed into crypto positioning.

Fixed income

Yields rise on oil, then stabilise.

US Treasuries: Bond markets reflected the week’s macro tension. US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.43% mid-week on oil-driven inflation concerns, while the 2-year approached 3.95%. By Friday, yields eased slightly as oil corrected and policy expectations stabilised.
European bonds: European yields followed a similar pattern, rising sharply before pulling back into month-end.

Market pulse: Rates are increasingly driven by energy-linked inflation rather than growth expectations.

Looking ahead – fixed income

The US jobs report and Treasury issuance will shape rate expectations. Strong data could reinforce higher-for-longer narratives, while weaker prints may ease pressure on the front end.

Commodities

Oil dominates, reshaping the macro backdrop.

Oil – Strait of Hormuz driver: Oil remained the central driver, with Brent rising toward wartime highs before easing slightly. The Strait of Hormuz disruption tightened supply and drove inflation concerns across markets.
Gold and broader commodities: Gold initially weakened under rising yields but later stabilised as geopolitical risks intensified. Broader commodities posted strong gains in April, led by energy.

Market pulse: Oil continues to dictate inflation expectations and cross-asset behaviour.

Looking ahead – commodities

Any progress on reopening shipping routes will be the key swing factor. A resolution could trigger a sharp pullback in oil and ease inflation fears, while continued disruption would keep upward pressure on prices.

Currencies

Yen volatility and USD strength define the week.

USDJPY – intervention risk: FX markets were dominated by yen volatility and a firm US dollar. USDJPY surged above 160 before dropping sharply below 156 on intervention threats, highlighting extreme positioning.
USD and commodity currencies: The dollar strengthened mid-week on yields and oil before stabilising, while commodity-linked currencies remained supported.

Market pulse: FX is highly reactive to policy divergence and energy dynamics.

Looking ahead – currencies

Yen intervention risk remains elevated, while US data will guide USD direction. Commodity currencies will continue to track oil, making energy markets a key FX driver.

Key takeaways

Equities: Earnings support holds, but leadership remains narrow.
Volatility: Contained, with persistent demand for hedging.
Options: Selective upside with protection still embedded.
Digital assets: Stable, supported by ETF flows and macro tone.
Fixed income: Yields driven by oil and inflation expectations.
Commodities: Oil remains the dominant macro force.
Currencies: Yen volatility and USD direction in focus.

Looking ahead – week of 4 to 8 May 2026

The coming week arrives with oil still elevated, yen intervention risk unresolved, and equities trading near recent highs on the back of narrow earnings-driven leadership. Macro conditions remain fragile beneath the surface, and the data calendar is dense enough to test whether the current equity resilience is justified.

Consumer-facing earnings take centre stage. Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will collectively test whether demand at the consumer level is holding, or beginning to soften under the weight of elevated energy prices and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the April US jobs report represents the defining macro input of the week – a strong reading would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure the front end of the Treasury curve, while any softness could ease rate anxiety and support risk assets broadly.

Oil remains the wild card. Any signal of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes could trigger a sharp reversal in crude, easing inflation fears across fixed income and FX simultaneously. Conversely, continued disruption keeps cross-asset volatility elevated and hedging demand intact.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 4 May – Strait of Hormuz supply developments; options flow into consumer earnings week begins
Tue 5 May – Airbnb Q1 2026 earnings (after close)
Wed 6 May – Walt Disney Q2 2026 earnings (after close); US Treasury auction
Thu 7 May – McDonald’s Q1 2026 earnings; US weekly jobless claims
Fri 8 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary)

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week resilient, supported by earnings and selective risk-taking, but underlying conditions remain fragile. Oil-driven inflation, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical risk continue to shape cross-asset behaviour.

The coming week’s labour and consumer data will be critical in determining whether markets can extend gains or face renewed macro pressure.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

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Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon put AI spending on trial

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending is no longer judged by ambition alone. Investors now want visible payback.
Alphabet had the clearest initial market reward, while Meta faced the toughest reaction.
Cloud and advertising are working, but cash flow pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite growth story. It has also become one of its most expensive hobbies. On 29 April 2026, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon gave investors a fresh look at the same big question: is AI spending turning into revenue, margins and cash flow?

The answer is not a simple yes or no. It is more like: yes, but the receipt is getting longer.

The early market reaction showed that investors are becoming more selective. Alphabet was the only clear initial winner, helped by strong Google Cloud growth, resilient Search and better profitability. Meta had the weakest reaction, despite strong advertising growth, because investors focused on the company’s higher capital expenditure plan. In this AI cycle, good revenue is helpful. Good revenue with controlled spending is better.

The chart below puts the AI spending debate in one simple frame: capital expenditure is rising fast, but most Big Tech firms still generate strong free cash flow. Amazon is the clear exception in 2026, as its investment cycle is expected to push free cash flow negative. That is why investors are asking not only “can they spend?” but “which companies can turn that spending into revenue, margins and cash flow fastest?”

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. The 2026 figures are based on Bloomberg forecasts. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Cloud gives the first answer

Microsoft gave investors one of the cleaner AI payback signals. Revenue came in at 82.89 billion USD, ahead of expectations, while Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency. Its AI business also passed a 37 billion USD annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-on-year. That is the kind of line investors wanted to see: AI is not only a product demo, it is becoming a business line.

Still, the trade-off is visible. Microsoft said cloud gross margin was pressured by AI infrastructure and AI product usage. In plain English, customers are using the tools, but the tools are not free to run. Chips, servers and power do not accept stock options as payment.

Amazon told a similar story, but with a sharper cash flow warning. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud business, grew 28% in constant currency, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. The company also said its chips business topped a 20 billion USD revenue run rate. That is encouraging for the AI demand story.

But Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to 1.2 billion USD from 25.9 billion USD a year earlier, mainly because property and equipment spending rose sharply, reflecting AI investment. This is the core tension: AWS is accelerating, but the infrastructure bill is absorbing much of the benefit for now.

Advertising still pays the rent

Alphabet and Meta showed that AI is already helping the advertising machine. Alphabet reported revenue of 109.90 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. Google Search and Other revenue rose 19%, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to 20.03 billion USD. Even better, Google Cloud operating income rose to 6.60 billion USD from 2.18 billion USD a year earlier.

That explains the positive initial stock reaction. Alphabet did not only spend more. It showed where the payoff is appearing: Search remains strong, Cloud is scaling, and AI usage is supporting demand rather than clearly damaging the core business.

Meta also delivered strong numbers. Revenue rose 33% to 56.31 billion USD, advertising revenue rose 33%, and operating margin stayed at 41%. For most companies, that would be a victory lap with a modest sandwich.

But Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to 125 to 145 billion USD, from 115 to 135 billion USD. That changed the market conversation. Investors are not saying Meta’s AI strategy is failing. They are saying the spending bar has moved higher again, so the proof also needs to move higher.

The new test: useful growth

For long-term investors, this earnings round is useful because it separates AI excitement from AI economics. The strongest signals are not vague statements about transformation. They are concrete signs: faster cloud growth, better ad performance, stronger operating income and healthy free cash flow.

The infographic below turns the earnings season into a simple checklist. Each company has a different AI test, but the investor question is the same: where should the payoff appear, and which numbers will show whether it is real?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis and in-house framework. For illustrative purposes only.

Risks to watch

The first risk is overbuilding. If data centre capacity grows faster than customer demand, margins could suffer. Watch whether cloud growth keeps pace with capital expenditure.

The second risk is pricing. If AI tools become widely available and similar, customers may resist paying much more for them. Adoption is good. Paid adoption is better.

The third risk is investor patience. These companies can afford large spending plans, but even Big Tech does not get unlimited benefit of the doubt. The market is now asking for receipts, not just roadmaps.

Investor playbook

Watch cloud growth alongside capital expenditure, not in isolation.
Follow free cash flow, especially at Amazon and Meta.
Look for AI comments tied to paid usage, pricing or margins.
Treat one quarter as evidence, not a final verdict.

From promise to payback

This earnings round does not settle the AI debate. It sharpens it. Microsoft and Alphabet showed the clearest early evidence that AI spending is turning into measurable business momentum. Amazon showed strong demand, but also how quickly investment can swallow cash flow. Meta showed that even excellent advertising growth may not satisfy investors when the spending plan gets bigger.

For long-term investors, the lesson is simple: AI still matters, but the market is becoming less impressed by the size of the kitchen and more interested in the meal. Big Tech is cooking. Now investors want to know who can serve profitably.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

Saxo Market Compass - 27 April 2026

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 27 April 2026

Recap of last week (20 to 24 April 2026)

Oil shocks meet resilient risk appetite.

Markets balanced rising geopolitical tension and higher oil prices against steady earnings and AI-driven momentum. US equities extended gains, while Europe lagged under energy pressure. Volatility stayed contained but elevated, signalling caution rather than stress, while bonds and commodities reflected a renewed inflation impulse.

Market pulse: Resilience persists, but the macro backdrop is becoming less forgiving.

Equities

Narrow leadership continues; regional performance diverges along energy exposure lines.

US equities: Narrow leadership continues to carry the market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pushed higher through the week (April 23–24), supported by strong earnings and semiconductor momentum. Intel’s +23.6% surge (April 24) and gains in AMD and Arm reinforced AI-led strength, while weaker prints such as ServiceNow (–17.8%) exposed fragility beneath the surface. Oil-driven inflation concerns capped broader participation, keeping the rally concentrated. Market pulse: Strong at the top, but increasingly dependent on a narrow group.
Europe and Asia: Energy divergence defines regional performance. European equities declined, with the STOXX 600 down through the week as rising oil prices pressured margins, particularly in transport and industrials. Energy majors provided partial support, while selective earnings (Nestlé, ASM International) offered pockets of strength. In Asia, Japan and Korea outperformed on chip demand, while oil-importing economies showed strain. Market pulse: Global equities are diverging along energy exposure lines.

Looking ahead – equities

Focus shifts to earnings concentration risk. Results from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Apple will test whether AI-led leadership can broaden. Any disappointment could expose the market’s narrow base, especially with oil still elevated.

Volatility

Elevated but orderly: hedging persists without panic.

VIX and implied moves: The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with spikes tied to Strait of Hormuz developments fading quickly. Options pricing reflected controlled risk, with implied weekly moves tightening from around 1.4% early in the week to below 1% mid-week before re-expanding. Skew remained defensive at times, with downside protection demand reappearing despite strong equity performance.

Market pulse: Markets are hedged, not stressed.

Looking ahead – volatility

With the Federal Reserve decision and heavy earnings calendar, implied moves have widened again toward roughly 1.6% to 1.7%. Volatility is likely to be event-driven rather than trend-driven, with skew direction offering the clearest signal of sentiment shifts.

Options sentiment

Hedged participation dominates: engagement without conviction.

Options flow showed consistent demand for downside protection across indices and cyclical sectors, particularly early in the week. Investors remained active but cautious, maintaining hedges rather than expressing outright bearish views.

Selective upside participation appeared in large-cap technology, energy, and financials, but rarely in isolation. Call buying was typically paired with protective structures, including collars and two-sided volatility trades, especially around earnings and macro catalysts. By week’s end, positioning evolved into more balanced setups, with increased use of paired strategies.

Market pulse: Investors are participating, but always with protection attached.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Expect continued preference for structured exposure into major earnings and the Fed. If realised volatility exceeds implied levels, positioning may shift toward more directional trades; otherwise, two-sided strategies are likely to dominate. Watch skew and short-dated flows for early signals of conviction returning.

Digital assets

Stable but selective: institutional flows drive the narrative.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin held in the 75,000 to 78,000 range, while Ethereum remained softer near 2,300. Institutional flows remained the key driver, with IBIT seeing steady inflows, while ETHA showed mixed demand. Crypto equities reflected selective risk appetite, and altcoins remained secondary to broader sentiment.

Market pulse: Stability holds, but conviction is uneven and flow-dependent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto will continue to track macro risk sentiment, particularly equity volatility and rates. Sustained inflows into IBIT versus mixed ETHA flows suggest leadership remains concentrated in Bitcoin unless broader risk appetite strengthens.

Fixed income

Yields rise as inflation concerns return via energy.

US Treasuries and European yields: US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year near 4.30 to 4.35% during the week, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations. The 2-year fluctuated between roughly 3.72% and 3.84%, reflecting uncertainty around policy direction. European yields followed, pressured by similar inflation dynamics.

Market pulse: Bonds are repricing inflation risk, not growth optimism.

Looking ahead – fixed income

The Federal Reserve decision and forward guidance will be key. Any shift in tone toward persistent inflation could push yields higher, while a more cautious stance may stabilise the front end. Oil remains the critical input variable.

Commodities

Energy leads: supply disruption drives the complex.

Oil and energy: Oil moved above 100 mid-week as supply disruptions intensified, lifting broader commodity indices. Fuel products led gains, while natural gas diverged lower on oversupply. Agricultural markets began pricing fertiliser shortages and weather risks, while metals remained mixed.

Market pulse: Commodities are being driven by supply shocks, not demand strength.

Looking ahead – commodities

Oil remains the dominant driver. Any progress in negotiations could ease prices quickly, while continued disruption may extend inflationary pressure across the complex. Watch agricultural markets for second-round effects from fertiliser constraints and weather patterns.

Currencies

Dollar mixed as traditional correlations weaken.

US dollar and majors: The US dollar showed mixed performance, firming early in the week before softening. EURUSD traded around 1.17, while USDJPY hovered near 159 to 160, raising intervention risks. Commodity-linked currencies strengthened alongside oil, reflecting selective macro alignment.

Market pulse: FX markets are driven more by rates than risk sentiment.

Looking ahead – currencies

Central bank divergence will be the key driver, with Fed guidance and global policy signals shaping flows. USD direction will depend more on rate expectations than oil unless volatility spikes.

Key takeaways

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended gains through the week of April 20–24, led by Intel at +23.6% and broader AI semiconductor momentum; European equities declined with the STOXX 600 under oil-related margin pressure.
The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with intraday spikes tied to geopolitical developments fading quickly – elevated but orderly.
Options flow showed a consistent preference for hedged participation: downside protection across indices and cyclicals, with selective upside in technology, energy, and financials paired with collars and two-sided structures.
Bitcoin held in the 75,000–78,000 range, supported by steady IBIT inflows; Ethereum remained softer near 2,300 with mixed ETF demand.
US 10-year Treasury yields moved to 4.30–4.35% and the 2-year fluctuated between 3.72% and 3.84%, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations rather than growth signals.
Oil moved above 100 mid-week on Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, lifting broader commodity indices; natural gas diverged lower on oversupply.
EURUSD traded around 1.17; USDJPY hovered near 159–160, raising intervention concerns as FX markets tracked rate differentials more than risk sentiment.
Cross-asset positioning reflected caution beneath resilient surfaces: equities higher but narrow; volatility contained but skewed defensively; bonds repricing inflation, not growth.

Looking ahead – week of 27 April to 1 May 2026

The coming week is structurally complex. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision arrives against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation risk that markets have already begun pricing, leaving guidance tone as the dominant variable. At the same time, concentrated earnings from the five largest US technology companies will determine whether the current AI-led equity rally can broaden or sustain its current pace.

The macro calendar is dense. Consumer confidence data and the start of big tech earnings set the tone early in the week, followed by the FOMC decision mid-week alongside earnings from Microsoft and Amazon. Apple reports toward the end of the week, with the US employment report rounding out a period that could reset risk appetite across asset classes.

The Fed decision is the single most binary risk event. Any shift in forward guidance toward sustained higher rates – in response to oil-driven inflation – could meaningfully reprice the front end of the yield curve and disrupt the equity rally’s narrow foundation. A more neutral or data-dependent tone may provide relief for bonds and extend the equity bid, though oil remains an independent variable capable of overriding either scenario.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 27 Apr – China PMI; Asian market open sentiment
Tue 28 Apr – US consumer confidence; Alphabet Q1 earnings after close; Meta Platforms Q1 earnings after close
Wed 29 Apr – FOMC rate decision (20:00 GMT); Fed Chair press conference; Microsoft Q1 earnings after close; Amazon Q1 earnings after close
Thu 30 Apr – Apple Q1 earnings after close; US initial jobless claims
Fri 1 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); US unemployment rate

Concluding remarks

Markets remain resilient, but the balance is becoming more delicate. Strong earnings and AI-driven momentum continue to support equities, yet rising energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations across asset classes. Volatility remains contained, but positioning shows clear caution beneath the surface.

The coming week will be decisive. Central bank guidance and concentrated earnings will determine whether markets can sustain their current trajectory or begin to reflect a more challenging macro environment.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 20 April 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:17:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 20 April 2026

Gains without full conviction – markets climbed on easing oil fears and earnings momentum, but the hedging never stopped.

Markets navigated a week dominated by shifting US–Iran dynamics, with oil volatility driving cross-asset moves while equities pushed to record highs. Investors increasingly looked through geopolitical noise, supported by resilient earnings and easing inflation signals, though sentiment remained fragile beneath the surface. By week's end, optimism around diplomacy briefly boosted risk appetite before renewed tensions reintroduced uncertainty. It was a week of gains, but not of full conviction.

Equities

Record highs driven by tech strength and easing oil fears.

United States: Wall Street extended its rally, with the S&P 500 moving from 6,886 early in the week to above 7,100 by Friday. Gains were led by AI-linked names and financials, as markets repeatedly treated geopolitical shocks as temporary. Oil pullbacks acted as a key trigger for renewed risk-taking, while earnings provided confirmation.
Europe & Asia: Europe remained more sensitive to oil and inflation, with selective strength in banks and travel as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged on earnings. Asia stayed supported by the AI cycle, led by semiconductor demand, though profit-taking emerged late in the week.

Market pulse: Equities are trending higher, but leadership is narrow and macro-dependent.

Looking ahead – equities

Earnings now take centre stage. Tesla and Intel will test whether AI-driven optimism can justify current valuations, while airline results will offer insight into demand versus cost pressures. If earnings confirm resilience, equities can hold levels; if not, the market loses its main pillar.

Volatility

Volatility compresses despite persistent geopolitical risk.

VIX: The VIX declined through the week into the high-teens, signalling calmer conditions even as Hormuz tensions persisted. Implied moves narrowed, but consistent downside skew showed investors continued to pay for protection. The surface calm masks a market still hedging tail risks.

Market pulse: Volatility is low, but not trusted.

Looking ahead – volatility

Focus shifts to earnings-driven volatility. Index volatility may stay contained, but single-stock volatility is likely to rise. Any renewed escalation in oil or geopolitics would quickly reprice index volatility from these compressed levels.

Options sentiment

Positioning shows participation with protection, not conviction.

Options flow reflected a market staying invested while actively managing risk. Upside exposure was present but largely expressed through defined-risk structures such as call spreads, while downside hedging remained persistent. Large-cap equities and financials showed the most caution, reflecting earnings uncertainty.

Sector dispersion stood out: metals saw constructive upside interest, energy flows were selective, and broader equity positioning avoided outright directional bets.

Market pulse: Investors kept risk on, but consistently paid to hedge it.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

This positioning creates asymmetry. If earnings surprise positively, positioning may need to chase upside. If not, existing hedge demand suggests limited downside panic but continued grind rather than breakout.

Digital assets

Crypto stable but conviction remains uneven.

Bitcoin & Ethereum: Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range, while Ethereum lagged slightly, highlighting uneven demand. Institutional flows remained supportive, with IBIT leading and ETHA seeing smaller but steady inflows. Crypto-linked equities outperformed at times, reflecting leveraged exposure to sentiment.

Market pulse: Crypto is stable, but still macro-driven rather than independent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto direction remains tied to broader risk sentiment. If equities extend gains and volatility stays low, flows should remain supportive. A macro shock – especially via oil or rates – would likely pull crypto back in line with risk assets.

Fixed income

Yields ease, then stabilise as macro signals balance out.

US yields: US yields declined through mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil, before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience. Central banks maintained a cautious stance, signalling no urgency to tighten despite energy-related inflation risks.

Market pulse: Bond markets reflect balance, not stress.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Retail sales data becomes key for validating consumer strength. Strong data could push yields higher again, while weaker numbers would reinforce the current steady-rate narrative.

Commodities

Oil volatility dominates, metals follow macro cues.

Oil: Oil moved sharply through the week, falling from elevated levels before rebounding as geopolitical headlines shifted. This volatility shaped broader market sentiment and inflation expectations.
Metals: Gold traded in a wide range, while copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations.

Market pulse: Oil remains the macro anchor for all assets.

Looking ahead – commodities

Geopolitics remains the primary driver. Any clarity on Hormuz or US–Iran talks will directly impact inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Commodities are likely to stay reactive rather than trend-driven.

Currencies

Dollar weakens, then stabilises as risk sentiment shifts.

US dollar: The US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising as oil rebounded and uncertainty returned.
Japanese yen: The yen remained weak despite lower yields, reflecting carry dynamics and policy uncertainty.

Market pulse: FX remains driven by rate expectations and risk sentiment.

Looking ahead – currencies

Currency direction hinges on rate expectations. Strong US data could support the dollar, while continued risk-on sentiment would favour cyclical currencies.

Key takeaways

The S&P 500 advanced from 6,886 to above 7,100 over the week, led by AI-linked names and financials as markets treated geopolitical shocks as temporary.
European indices showed selective gains, with banks and travel outperforming as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged; Asia was supported by semiconductor demand but saw profit-taking late in the week.
The VIX declined into the high-teens, compressing despite persistent Hormuz tensions, though elevated downside skew signalled ongoing demand for tail protection.
Options flow favoured defined-risk structures – call spreads over outright calls – with persistent downside hedging across large-cap equities and financials reflecting earnings uncertainty.
Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range while Ethereum lagged; institutional flows via IBIT remained supportive, with crypto direction remaining macro-dependent.
US Treasury yields declined mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience; central banks signalled no urgency to tighten.
Oil moved sharply lower then rebounded as geopolitical headlines shifted, remaining the primary cross-asset anchor shaping sentiment and inflation expectations through the week.
Gold traded in a wide range; copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations; the US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising on oil's rebound.

Looking ahead – week of 20 April to 24 April 2026

Earnings season moves into its most consequential stretch, making the coming week structurally more binary than the one just passed. With geopolitical risk still unresolved and volatility compressed, a single earnings miss from a high-profile AI name could reprice both single-stock and index volatility simultaneously.

The key focus areas are equity earnings and macro data validation. Tesla and Intel are the headline tests for whether AI-driven equity valuations can hold at current levels. Airline results will offer a read on consumer demand versus cost pressures. US retail sales data is the pivotal macro release, capable of either reinforcing the soft-landing narrative or raising fresh concerns about consumer resilience.

The single biggest risk event is the combination of tech earnings and retail sales landing in the same week. A positive earnings surprise without macro confirmation could create a narrow, fragile rally. A miss in either would likely trigger the repricing that compressed volatility has so far avoided.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 20 Apr – Markets reopen; geopolitical monitoring continues (Hormuz / US–Iran)
Tue 21 Apr – Tesla earnings (after US close); early airline sector results
Wed 22 Apr – Ongoing large-cap earnings; US macro data releases
Thu 23 Apr – Intel earnings; US retail sales data
Fri 24 Apr – End-of-week positioning; options expiry considerations

Concluding remarks

Markets delivered another week of gains, supported by easing oil fears and strong earnings momentum, but conviction remains conditional. Volatility is low, positioning is hedged, and leadership is narrow. With earnings accelerating and macro data in focus, the coming week will determine whether this rally broadens or stalls under its own expectations. Staying selective and flexible remains key.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Oil, batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla’s reported cheaper-car pivot looks like a return to EV basics, not a side story.
Higher oil prices help the EV case, but they do not fix weak margins.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) shows that battery leaders may capture more value than many carmakers.

Tesla spends a lot of time being discussed as a robotaxi, software and artificial intelligence story. That is fair, up to a point. But the latest development says something simpler and, for investors, probably more useful. Tesla is reportedly working on a smaller, cheaper electric vehicle, after years of pushing the market to focus on autonomy and futuristic optionality. That matters because it suggests the old EV battle is back in charge: price, scale, battery cost and who can still make money when the shiny story meets a tired consumer.

That is the real hook here. Tesla is not just updating a product plan. It is admitting, indirectly, that the market has changed. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced more than 408,000 vehicles but delivered just over 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that demand is no longer a one-way escalator. Tesla reports first-quarter earnings on 22 April 2026, so the next real test is whether management explains this as a temporary wobble or as part of a harder, more price-sensitive market.

Back to the driveway

Tesla’s reported cheaper model matters because it looks like a reality check. A lower-priced compact sport utility vehicle could help volumes, keep factories busier and give Tesla a better answer to Chinese rivals and to a more cautious buyer in Europe and the United States. It also comes with a catch the size of a showroom. Cheaper cars usually mean thinner margins, unless battery costs fall fast enough to compensate. That is why this is more than a Tesla story. It says the EV market is entering a phase where affordability may matter more than aspiration. Flashy launch events are nice. Monthly payments still tend to win arguments.

The broader electric vehicle backdrop is mixed rather than broken. Reuters reported that global EV registrations rose 3% in March 2026, with Europe up 37% to nearly 540,000 units, helped by higher petrol prices. North America, by contrast, fell 30% after the end of tax credits. That split is important. It shows that EV demand still responds to economics, but those economics now depend more on fuel prices, incentives and pricing discipline than on novelty alone. In other words, the market is growing up. Like all adults, it has started reading the energy bill.

Oil has entered the chat

This is where the current oil backdrop matters. Brent crude was around 94.93 USD a barrel on 15 April 2026, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around 91.29 USD, even after some cooling from earlier spikes. Physical oil grades briefly surged far above futures prices during the recent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For drivers, and therefore for carmakers, that means one thing: uncertainty at the pump is back. And when fuel becomes a headache, EVs and hybrids start looking less like ideology and more like maths.

That does not mean Tesla automatically wins. Higher oil prices can support EV demand, but they do not solve competition, financing costs or product fatigue. They simply improve the category’s pitch. For long-term investors, that is a useful distinction. Oil can lift interest in EVs, but only the right product mix, the right battery cost and the right manufacturing execution turn that interest into profits. This is one reason Tesla’s cheaper-car move matters now. It is a response to an EV market that may be helped by oil, but no longer rescued by excitement alone.

Why battery makers matter more now

If Tesla’s reported move is the reality check, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., is the second act. The Chinese battery giant beat first-quarter expectations this week, with profit up 48.5% year on year and revenue up 52.5%. Its share of the global electric vehicle battery market also climbed to 42.1% in early 2026, a reminder that more of the industry’s power is shifting toward the companies that control the battery bill. CATL’s own 2025 annual report said it held 39.2% of the global power battery market and 30.4% of global energy storage battery shipments. In February, it added another sign of where the market is heading, saying it would supply sodium-ion batteries for the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car with Changan, due by mid-2026.

Why does that matter for Tesla and for investors looking at the wider EV chain? Because batteries are no longer a background component. They shape cost, charging speed, cold-weather performance, supply security and, increasingly, the balance of power in the industry. CATL is also reportedly considering another Hong Kong fundraising, which underlines a broader point: this industry still needs vast amounts of capital, and the companies providing the chemistry and scale may end up with more bargaining power than the brands selling the badge. Carmakers still sell the dream. Battery leaders increasingly control the economics.

The road can still get slippery

There are at least three risks to watch. First, Tesla’s cheaper-car pivot could help deliveries but pressure profitability if price cuts outrun cost savings. Second, oil could fall back quickly if geopolitics ease, which would soften one of the category’s current demand tailwinds. Third, battery leadership could make the EV market more unequal, with suppliers and low-cost manufacturers taking more value while premium carmakers fight harder for it. Early warning signs are straightforward: Tesla’s margin commentary on 22 April, inventory trends, battery pricing language from CATL, and whether Europe’s recent demand strength lasts once energy panic fades.

Investor playbook

Watch whether cheaper EVs expand demand, or simply move the same demand down-market.
Follow battery leaders as closely as car brands. The chemistry race now shapes the profit race.
Treat oil as a demand variable, not a magic wand. It can help adoption, but not fix execution.

Where the real EV battle sits

Tesla’s latest move brings the story back to the driveway. For all the talk of robotaxis, chips and humanoid robots, the near-term question is still whether Tesla can build a more affordable car that people want, at a margin investors can live with. That is why the CATL angle matters so much.

In this phase of the EV race, the winners may not be the companies with the loudest future story, but the ones with the best battery access, the lowest cost curve and the clearest answer to a simple customer question: why should I buy this now? In the electric age, the dream still matters. The battery bill may matter more.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Tesla Motors Theme - Electric vehicles

Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:16:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 13 April 2026

Geopolitics drove a full market cycle this week – from stress to relief and back to uncertainty.

Markets moved sharply through the week as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz first lifted oil and volatility, then a temporary ceasefire triggered a broad rally, before renewed escalation brought caution back. Inflation re-accelerated, central bank expectations shifted, and earnings season began to take focus. The key takeaway is simple: macro and geopolitics are again dominating price action across asset classes.

Equities

Relief rally met macro reality across regions.

United States: The S&P 500 gained 2.5% on 8 April as ceasefire hopes drove a sharp rotation into cyclicals, before stabilising into Friday as inflation and sentiment data cooled enthusiasm. Large-cap tech, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, remained supported by AI demand narratives.
Europe: Indices such as the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) rallied on falling energy prices, with industrial and consumer names leading the recovery.
Asia: Strong semiconductor-led gains from Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company emerged early in the week before profit-taking emerged as macro uncertainty returned.

Market pulse: Equities remain reactive to energy and geopolitical shifts, with conviction still limited despite the mid-week surge.

Looking ahead – equities

Earnings take centre stage, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America setting the tone for financials. Tech leadership will be tested by ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Expect stock-level dispersion to rise as fundamentals begin to matter more alongside macro risk.

Volatility

Sharp compression followed by renewed tension.

VIX trajectory: Volatility started elevated, with the VIX at 24.17 early in the week, before dropping to around 21 mid-week and further to 19.49 by Friday as ceasefire hopes eased market stress.
Renewed pressure: Volatility began to rise again into the new week, with futures pointing higher near 22 as tensions resurfaced. Expected moves compressed significantly during the mid-week lull, reflecting a temporary stabilisation in sentiment.

Market pulse: Volatility eased, but remains highly headline-sensitive and vulnerable to fast reversals.

Looking ahead – volatility

Volatility is likely to stay reactive, with geopolitical headlines and earnings both acting as catalysts. A sustained move higher in oil or negative earnings surprises could quickly reprice short-term volatility, while stable conditions may keep VIX contained near current levels.

Options sentiment

Disciplined participation with a persistent hedging bias.

Options flow reflected controlled engagement rather than strong conviction. Index positioning showed steady demand for downside protection, while large-cap tech flows shifted toward spreads and overwrites instead of outright calls. Financials reinforced this pattern, with event-driven, defined-risk positioning dominating ahead of earnings.

In contrast, energy and metals saw more constructive flows, though consistently paired with hedging, highlighting conditional optimism rather than outright bullishness.

Market pulse: Investors stayed active, but prioritised risk-controlled exposure over directional bets.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Earnings season will be the key driver of positioning. Expect continued use of spreads and structured trades, particularly in financials and tech, with implied volatility likely to rise around key events and skew remaining sensitive to macro risk.

Digital assets

Resilient, but still macro-driven.

Bitcoin: Traded between roughly $68k and $72k, holding steady despite sharp macro swings across other risk assets.
Ethereum and altcoins: Ethereum remained near $2.1k–$2.2k, while XRP and Solana showed selective strength. ETF flows remained supportive, with continued inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust, while iShares Ethereum Trust flows were more cautious.

Crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of global risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver.

Market pulse: Crypto remains stable, but direction is macro-dependent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto will likely continue tracking broader risk sentiment. ETF flows remain the key signal to watch – sustained inflows could support further upside, while macro shocks or equity weakness could quickly pressure prices.

Fixed income

Yields whipsawed by inflation and energy dynamics.

US Treasuries: Yields rose early in the week, dropped sharply mid-week on easing energy fears, and then stabilised higher into Friday. The 10-year yield moved between roughly 4.24% and 4.35%, reflecting shifting expectations around inflation and monetary policy.
Policy outlook: Stronger CPI data reinforced a more cautious outlook for rate cuts, with markets reducing the number of anticipated cuts priced in for 2026.

Market pulse: Bond markets remain anchored to inflation expectations, with energy-driven CPI the dominant variable.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Focus shifts to central bank communication and inflation persistence. Any sustained rise in energy prices could push yields higher, while weaker data or dovish signals could stabilise the curve. Watch for commentary from Fed officials around the earnings period.

Commodities

Oil remained the dominant macro driver across asset classes.

Crude oil: Drove cross-asset moves throughout the week, rising above $110 early on, dropping below $100 on ceasefire hopes, and rebounding again as tensions escalated. The Strait of Hormuz remained the key risk channel, with supply disruption fears driving volatility in both directions.
Metals: Followed the broader risk sentiment, posting mid-week gains before stabilising. No independent catalyst emerged; metals moved in line with the macro mood.

Market pulse: Commodities, especially oil, remain central to macro risk transmission across all asset classes.

Looking ahead – commodities

Geopolitics will continue to dominate the oil price. Any disruption in shipping or supply through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices higher again, while signs of de-escalation may cap gains. Metals will likely track broader risk sentiment and global growth expectations.

Currencies

Dollar swings tracked geopolitics and rate repricing.

US dollar: Strengthened early in the week, weakened mid-week on risk-on sentiment from ceasefire hopes, and rebounded again into the weekend as tensions returned and inflation data supported yields.
Key pairs: EURUSD traded between roughly 1.15 and 1.17, while USDJPY remained elevated near 159–160. Commodity-linked currencies moved in line with oil prices, reflecting the energy-FX transmission channel.

Market pulse: FX markets remain driven by energy-linked inflation expectations and rate differentials.

Looking ahead – currencies

Currency moves will continue to reflect rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Watch for further volatility in USD pairs, particularly if inflation or energy dynamics shift again. USDJPY remains elevated and sensitive to any change in Fed guidance.

Key takeaways

Geopolitics drove rapid cross-asset swings, with ceasefire hopes mid-week triggering a sharp risk-on move that partially reversed as tensions resurfaced.
The S&P 500 gained 2.5% mid-week; European indices including the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) surged on falling energy costs.
The VIX moved from 24.17 to 19.49 over the week before futures pointed back toward 22, reflecting sustained headline sensitivity.
Options flows shifted to spreads and overwrites in tech and financials, reflecting disciplined, hedged positioning ahead of earnings.
Crude oil swung from above $110 to below $100 and back, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key risk channel.
US 10-year Treasury yields oscillated between 4.24% and 4.35%, driven by energy-linked inflation re-acceleration and shifting rate cut expectations.
Bitcoin held between $68k and $72k, with ETF inflows remaining supportive despite macro volatility elsewhere.
Earnings season begins: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are the key names to watch.

Looking ahead – week of 13 April to 17 April 2026

The dominant dynamic heading into the new week is the overlap of earnings season and persistent geopolitical risk. This is a structurally complex setup: corporate results can deliver fundamental anchors, but a single headline from the Strait of Hormuz can override earnings signals within hours. That combination makes for an unusually high-dispersion environment.

Key events this week centre on major financial sector earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America reporting in the first half of the week. These results will set the tone for financials broadly and will be closely watched for commentary on credit conditions, consumer health, and trading revenues. Technology and semiconductors follow, with ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting later in the week, testing whether AI-driven demand narratives remain intact. On the macro side, watch US retail sales and any Federal Reserve speakers for fresh guidance on the rate path.

The defining event remains geopolitical: any fresh escalation or de-escalation at the Strait of Hormuz will have immediate cross-asset implications, particularly for oil, USD pairs, and rate expectations. A sustained move in crude above $110 would likely put renewed pressure on equities and fixed income simultaneously, while a credible de-escalation could unlock the next leg of the relief rally seen mid-week.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 13 Apr – Markets reopen; watch weekend geopolitical developments and oil price gaps
Tue 14 Apr – JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings; US retail sales (Mar)
Wed 15 Apr – Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings; Bank of America Q1 earnings; Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thu 16 Apr – ASML Q1 earnings; US initial jobless claims; Netflix Q1 earnings
Fri 17 Apr – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q1 earnings; University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week stronger, but the underlying picture remains unstable. The rapid shift from stress to relief and back again highlights how dependent sentiment is on geopolitical developments, with oil functioning as the primary transmission mechanism across equities, fixed income, currencies, and crypto. Inflation pressures tied to energy are complicating the policy outlook, while earnings season now offers a potential anchor for fundamentals – but only if macro conditions allow the signal to come through.

For investors, this is a market that rewards discipline. Staying engaged while actively managing risk remains essential, as both opportunities and shocks can emerge quickly and with limited warning.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

ASML earnings: is the 8% move already priced in?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:06:00 Z

ASML earnings: is the 8% move already priced in?

ASML reports earnings on 15 April, and options markets are already pricing a move of roughly 8% in either direction. In this video I explain how to read that implied move, why direction alone is rarely enough in earnings trades, and how three different option structures – a bull call spread, a bear put spread, and an iron condor – each express a different view while keeping risk defined. I also cover the most common mistakes traders make around earnings events, and the key questions to ask before placing any position. Watch to get the full framework before the numbers drop.

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Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management
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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Theme - Artificial intelligence Getting Started with Options Contract Options Equity Options Investing with options Options education What are your options Listed Options Option Strategies Defined risk strategies Bearish strategies Bullish strategies Range‑bound strategies Volatility and event strategies

Saxo Market Compass - 30 March 2026

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 30 March 2026

Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz delivered a week of whiplash – and markets finished lower.

The Iran war entered its fourth week as the dominant force across every asset class. Monday’s 48-hour ultimatum triggered a broad selloff; Tuesday’s delayed-strike announcement sparked a one-day relief rally; Wednesday’s US 15-point peace proposal briefly lifted sentiment; and Iran’s formal rejection of those terms on Thursday sent equities sharply lower once more. The net result: S&P 500 down for the week, Brent crude near USD 110, global bond yields at cycle highs, the VIX at 27.44, and gold testing its 200-day moving average. Traditional safe-haven correlations broke down – gold fell, the yen weakened despite rising Japanese yields, and institutional options flow was defensively positioned without exception across all five sessions.

Equities

A week of two halves – brief diplomatic relief swallowed by fresh escalation.

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Monday, rallied 1.2% to 6,581 Tuesday, then dropped 1.7% to 6,477 Thursday as Iran rejected the US peace plan; the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to 21,408 the same day. Chipmakers bore the brunt – Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5% – while Valero rose 5.8% as energy was the week’s only consistent sector winner. Super Micro tumbled 33% on chip-smuggling charges.
Europe: ASML outperformed on SK Hynix’s USD 8bn equipment order. Vestas gained 6% on fresh US project orders; Pandora rose 9.2% on lower precious-metal costs. Edenred fell 17.2% after an Italian antitrust probe. Boliden collapsed 20% on mine disruption; Telecom Italia gained 4.7% on a Poste Italiane bid. The FTSE 100 lost 1.3% Thursday.
Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI fell 6.5% Monday – Samsung −4.7%, SK Hynix −6.2% – while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.5% before partially recovering mid-week.

Market pulse: Equities are geopolitics-led; any sustained recovery requires credible Iran de-escalation, not just a one-day diplomatic headline.

Looking ahead – equities

Nike earnings on Tuesday 31 March are the week’s key corporate event and an early consumer-demand test. Q1 ends Tuesday – expect rebalancing flows. The April 6 Iran deadline is the dominant binary for equity direction. NFP releases Good Friday to closed markets; the full equity reaction defers to Monday 6 April, the same morning the Iran deadline expires.

Volatility

VIX holds above 27 – geopolitics, not earnings, runs this vol market.

The VIX closed the week at 27.44, anchored entirely to geopolitical headlines. Short-term measures (VIX1D) briefly dipped below 20 during Tuesday’s relief before spiking again as Iran rejected the US plan. Options markets priced an S&P 500 expected weekly move of approximately 178 points (2.74%) at Monday’s open, narrowing to around 80 points (1.2%) by Friday’s close as expiry positioning compressed. Near-the-money calls occasionally traded marginally richer than puts – signalling uncertainty about direction rather than outright fear of an imminent crash.

Market pulse: Volatility stays elevated and range-bound until the Iran situation resolves; the April 6 deadline is the next hard event horizon.

Looking ahead – volatility

Iran’s April 6 deadline creates a hard VIX event. Dealers’ short-put inventory from the week’s protection buying structurally reinforces downside pressure. A credible ceasefire signal could collapse implied vol rapidly; escalation pushes VIX toward 35+. The VIX term structure – front-month elevated but well below spot – is pricing a specific event window, not open-ended fear.

Options sentiment

Protection first, conviction a distant second – across every segment.

All five sessions pointed in the same direction: investors leaned defensive. Index and broad-market hedging was consistent throughout, and the largest technology stocks attracted downside protection on every session from Tuesday onward. Selective long-horizon call buying was present in a handful of names, but it never came close to offsetting the protective tone.

The sector picture added nuance. Energy started the week with genuine upside appetite in selected names, but that eroded steadily and closed on a clearly defensive note. Precious metals swung sharply, with a constructive mid-week session sandwiched between bearish ones; the week still ended on the defensive side. Financials split the room: meaningful protection and genuine accumulation both appeared in size, with no clear sector consensus emerging.

Market pulse: Investors did not abandon exposure, but they consistently paid for insurance – in every segment, across every session.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

April 17 is the dominant expiry horizon. The weight of accumulated downside hedging across indices and growth names creates a structural amplifier on any weak session. A credible Iran de-escalation is the clearest path to rapid protection unwinding and vol compression. Until that signal arrives, the defensive positioning bias is likely to persist.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked equities all week – no safe-haven function on offer.

Bitcoin ranged USD 67,800–71,000 before closing near USD 68,600; Ether held between USD 2,035 and 2,166. Both tracked equities without divergence. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a USD 171M net outflow on 26 March (IBIT −$42M); Ether ETFs lost USD 92M total (ETHA −$140M, partly offset by other products). Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and most miners remained under pressure; Marathon Digital announced Bitcoin sales to reduce debt. XRP and Solana drifted lower throughout.

Market pulse: Bitcoin shows relative strength within crypto, but institutional conviction remains absent until macro and geopolitical conditions stabilise.

Looking ahead – digital assets

April 6 is as binary for crypto as for equities – de-escalation could quickly restore risk appetite with Bitcoin as the first beneficiary. Monitor weekly IBIT and ETHA flows: a return to sustained positive IBIT inflows is the clearest signal of institutional re-engagement. Ethereum’s underperformance versus Bitcoin will persist until ETH ETF flows reverse.

Fixed income

Bond markets are pricing a rate hike – not a cut – for the first time this cycle.

US: The 2-year Treasury yield surged 10bps Thursday to 3.98% – its highest this cycle – with futures now pricing a hike rather than a cut as oil-driven inflation dominates. The 10-year closed at 4.42%; the 2–10 spread flattened to below 45bps from 73bps in early February.
Europe: Germany’s 2-year Schatz rose 11bps in a single session to 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); the 10-year Bund hit its highest close since 2011 at 3.07%. The Germany–France 10-year spread widened to 71bps, the year’s widest.
Japan: The 2-year JGB reached 1.386% – highest since 1996 – with markets pricing >65% odds of a BoJ hike at the late-April meeting.

Market pulse: Energy-driven inflation has reasserted itself as the dominant macro force, overriding every other central bank consideration globally.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Eurozone flash CPI Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) will confirm oil-shock pass-through; an upside surprise pushes Bund yields higher. Germany CPI Monday is the first read. NFP on Good Friday defers the full bond-market reaction to Monday 6 April. The BoJ’s late-April meeting is increasingly priced to deliver a 25bp hike.

Commodities

Brent’s record monthly advance is reshaping every other asset class in its image.

Energy: Brent crude surged toward USD 110 Thursday, logging a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Around 1,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf due to war-risk insurance withdrawals. Singapore jet fuel hit USD 222/barrel (+137% since the war began); the gasoil–Brent spread exceeded the 2022 Russia-shock peak. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 31% year-on-year.
Gold: Gold tested its 200-day moving average at USD 4,113 as ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month (−2.7% of holdings) – the metal is trading as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven.
Agriculture: Persian Gulf fertiliser disruptions are already curtailing Australian wheat plantings.

Market pulse: The supply shock is structural – until Hormuz reopens meaningfully, energy prices and their inflationary knock-ons will continue to define the macro backdrop.

Looking ahead – commodities

April 6 is the key catalyst: credible de-escalation could trigger a sharp Brent reversal and a gold recovery as the liquidity-selling dynamic reverses. OPEC+ spare capacity to offset Hormuz disruption is limited – watch Saudi Arabia and UAE for any output signals. Fertiliser shortages will increasingly feed into agricultural supply balances from April planting decisions onward.

Currencies

Safe havens in disarray – neither the dollar nor the yen is offering clean shelter.

USDJPY: Reached 159.85 as Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz supply weighed heavily on the yen; Japan’s Ministry of Finance warned of “bold actions” before the pair retreated below 159.60. Rising JGB yields would normally support the yen, but the energy-import shock offsets that, keeping USDJPY close to intervention levels.
EURUSD: Hit a Thursday low of 1.1520, recovering to 1.1550 by Friday.
AUDUSD: Fell to 0.6872 – its lowest since late January – on weaker risk sentiment and softer Australian February CPI (3.7% YoY vs. 3.8% expected). The Swiss franc also lost safe-haven appeal.

Market pulse: Currency safe-haven hierarchies are being rewritten by the Iran shock; USDJPY near 160 remains the most important technical level in G10 FX.

Looking ahead – currencies

Any fresh USDJPY push toward 160 will re-trigger MoF intervention concern. Eurozone CPI Tuesday directly affects EUR positioning. NFP defers the full dollar reaction to Monday 6 April. AUDUSD has meaningful recovery potential in an Iran de-escalation scenario; further escalation targets early-February lows near 0.6944.

Key takeaways

S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week lower; Thursday alone saw S&P −1.7% to 6,477 and Nasdaq −2.4% to 21,408 on Iran’s rejection of the US peace plan. Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5%.
VIX closed at 27.44; options flow was defensively positioned all five sessions – institutional put demand in SPY, QQQ, and high-beta single names throughout the week without exception.
Bitcoin closed near USD 68,600, tracking equities; spot ETF outflows confirmed absent institutional conviction (IBIT −$42M, ETHA −$140M on 26 March alone).
US 2-year yield hit 3.98% (cycle high); Germany 2-year Schatz 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); Japan 2-year JGB 1.386% (highest since 1996). Bond markets are pricing a hike, not a cut.
Brent crude logged a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Bloomberg Commodity Index +31% year-on-year. Singapore jet fuel at USD 222/barrel, up 137% since the war began.
Gold tested its 200-DMA at USD 4,113; ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month. The metal is trading as a liquidity instrument, not a safe haven.
USDJPY reached 159.85 – one step from MoF intervention. Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz is the structural driver of yen weakness despite rising JGB yields.

Looking ahead – week of 30 March to 3 April 2026

The week is shaped by one inescapable fact: Trump’s revised April 6 Iran deadline arrives next Monday with negotiations stalled. Markets will price de-escalation versus escalation probabilities throughout the week, keeping cross-asset correlations unstable.

Germany CPI on Monday 30 March provides the first G7 inflation read of the week; Eurozone flash CPI follows on Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) – an upside surprise could force ECB hawkishness back onto the table. Tuesday also marks Q1-end, with portfolio-rebalancing flows likely to amplify intraday moves. Nike reports earnings Tuesday as the week’s key corporate event. ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday 1 April (consensus 52.3 versus prior 52.4) will be the first April factory read; any deceleration alongside elevated input costs reinforces stagflation concerns.

The defining data point arrives Good Friday 4 April: US Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +57,000 after February’s −92,000 shock; unemployment expected at 4.4%). Equity and bond markets are closed for Easter. The full reaction therefore compresses into Monday 6 April – the same morning the Iran deadline formally expires. Two binary events stacked on a single Monday open: keep liquidity available and position accordingly.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 30 Mar – Germany CPI (Mar, prelim)
Tue 31 Mar – Eurozone flash CPI (Mar, consensus 2.5%); Q1-end; Nike earnings (NKE)
Wed 1 Apr – ISM Manufacturing (consensus 52.3)
Fri 4 Apr – US Nonfarm Payrolls (markets closed, Good Friday)
Mon 6 Apr – NFP market reaction + Trump Iran deadline expires

Concluding remarks

The week of 23 to 27 March confirmed that the Iran war has fractured traditional macro correlations: gold is selling off, the yen is weakening despite rising yields, and bond markets are pricing rate hikes in a slowing economy. The Hormuz supply shock is structural – stranded vessels, fertiliser shortages, and record refined-fuel margins are not temporary features. With the April 6 deadline approaching and talks stalled, the outcome range remains unusually wide. Maintaining diversification, keeping hedge costs in check, and preserving liquidity for a potentially historic Monday 6 April open is the most defensible posture heading into the Easter break.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026 Global Markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war (podcast) \| 9 March 2026 When markets look chaotic emotions matter more than portfolios \| 9 March 2026 Iran headlines market turbulence and options - a practical map of what to trade \| 4 March 2026 Oil, inflation, and a sudden “no thanks” to risky bets: Mr. market flips the sign \| 4 March 2026 Iran escalation The portfolio playbook \| 3 March 2026 Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict \| 2 March 2026 The Macro Take Iran conflict what to watch \| 2 March 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026 Iran escalation: Quick thoughts on markets \| 1 March 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 23 March 2026

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 17:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass

23 March 2026 (recap week of 16 to 20 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Markets spent last week repricing a single dominant theme: energy-driven inflation risk colliding with a less accommodative policy outlook. Early-week relief faded as oil volatility and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance pushed investors back into defensive positioning.

By Friday, the shift was clear. Equities weakened, bond yields surged, and volatility remained elevated, with macro risks firmly back in control of cross-asset direction.

Market pulse: sentiment rotated from cautious optimism to inflation-driven defensiveness.

Equities

A fragile rebound gave way to a broad risk reset.
US equities opened stronger, with the S&P 500 up 1.0% (16 Mar) as oil eased and AI names supported sentiment. That strength faded quickly, with a 1.4% decline (18 Mar) after the Fed reinforced a limited easing path, followed by continued pressure into Friday as oil and yields climbed.

Europe and Asia were more exposed to the energy shock. The STOXX 600 fell 2.4% (19 Mar), while Japan and Korea posted sharp declines late in the week as higher energy costs raised concerns around growth and margins.

Market pulse: equities are no longer pricing growth— they’re pricing inflation risk.

Looking ahead
Focus shifts to whether macro pressure feeds into earnings expectations. GameStop and retail-linked names will test risk appetite, while housing (KB Home) and payroll-linked earnings (Paychex) offer insight into consumer resilience. If oil stabilises, equities may find footing; if not, downside risk remains skewed toward cyclicals and Europe.
A potential de-escalation in the Middle East adds a new layer to the outlook. The sharp rebound in equities on easing headlines highlights how sensitive markets remain to oil-driven inflation expectations; however, conflicting signals suggest any relief may remain headline-driven rather than durable.

Volatility

Volatility remained elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.
The VIX dropped to 23.51 (16 Mar) before rising to 25.09 (18 Mar) as Fed uncertainty and energy risks intensified. Short-term measures confirmed persistent demand for protection around macro catalysts.

By Friday, volatility eased slightly after expiry-related flows, but the broader regime remains elevated, with options still pricing meaningful index moves and sensitivity to headlines.

Market pulse: volatility is stable, but structurally elevated and macro-driven.

Looking ahead
Key triggers shift from central banks to data. PMI, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment will determine whether realised volatility catches up with implied. If oil stabilises, vol could compress; if macro surprises persist, short-dated vol is likely to reprice higher first.
The sharp cross-asset reversal on de-escalation headlines reinforces that volatility remains event-driven. Short-dated measures are likely to stay sensitive to geopolitical news, with rapid repricing in either direction.

Options sentiment

Protection remained dominant, but markets did not fully de-risk.
Across the week, options flow continued to favour downside protection, particularly in the largest growth names where confirmed-opening hedging structures dominated. That points more to ongoing risk management than outright bearish conviction, as investors maintained exposure while guarding against macro shocks. The shift was most visible mid-week, as oil and rate uncertainty intensified and demand for protection increased.

Outside of tech, positioning was more balanced. Energy and metals retained constructive flows, especially in selected equities and miners, but upside participation was consistently paired with hedging. Financials added a different dynamic, with flow skewed toward income strategies, suggesting expectations of range-bound conditions rather than strong directional moves.

Market pulse: investors stayed invested, but conviction remained selective and consistently hedged.

Looking ahead
Watch whether protection demand persists into a lighter macro week. A decline in hedging flow — especially in large-cap growth — would signal stabilisation, while continued put demand or short-dated hedging would confirm that macro risk is still dominating positioning.
A sustained easing in geopolitical risk could prompt partial unwinding of downside protection, but uncertainty around the durability of any de-escalation suggests investors may continue to favour hedged structures.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked macro, with bitcoin showing relative strength.
Bitcoin held near $74K early in the week before drifting toward the $67–70K range, outperforming Ethereum and altcoins, which showed clearer weakness. ETF flows turned from supportive to mixed-to-negative, reflecting more cautious institutional positioning.

Options activity confirmed this tone, with hedging in crypto-linked equities and ETF products limiting upside conviction.

Market pulse: bitcoin remains resilient, but broader crypto sentiment is fragile.

Looking ahead
Crypto direction will hinge on macro stability, not crypto-specific catalysts. Watch ETF flows closely—renewed inflows would signal re-risking, while continued outflows would confirm a defensive regime. Correlation with equities remains high.

Fixed income

Bond markets repriced sharply toward inflation risk.
Yields fell early in the week before reversing decisively. The US 10-year moved from around 4.23% (16 Mar) to above 4.40% by Friday, while the 2-year approached 3.90%, reflecting a shift toward higher-for-longer expectations.

European yields followed, with Bund yields above 3.00%, as markets reconsidered the ECB path amid energy-driven inflation concerns.

Market pulse: bonds have moved from pricing cuts to defending against inflation.

Looking ahead
Import price data and consumer sentiment will be critical. Any sign that energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations could push yields higher again. Conversely, softer data could stabilise rates, particularly at the long end.
Lower oil prices could ease inflation expectations and provide temporary relief for bond yields, but durability depends on whether energy markets stabilise.

Commodities

Energy strength and metals weakness defined the week.
Oil remained elevated, with supply disruptions reinforcing inflation concerns despite intermittent pullbacks. Refined products continued to signal tightness, confirming that the shock is structural rather than headline-driven.

Metals moved in the opposite direction. Gold broke below key levels and saw a sharp decline, while copper and silver weakened on growth concerns and liquidation pressure.

Market pulse: commodities split—energy signals inflation, metals signal stress.

Looking ahead
The key variable remains Middle East developments and supply flows. Oil direction will dictate cross-asset sentiment. Watch refinery margins and diesel spreads—these remain the clearest indicators of real supply stress.
The recent sharp drop in oil on de-escalation signals shows how quickly supply risk can be repriced, but disrupted flows and tight product markets suggest volatility will remain elevated even if tensions ease.

Currencies

FX markets reflected rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.
The US dollar weakened early in the week before recovering as yields rose. EURUSD traded in wide ranges, while USDJPY remained volatile amid yield shifts and central bank positioning.

Safe-haven behaviour was inconsistent. The Swiss franc failed to attract strong flows, while the Norwegian krone strengthened on energy exposure, highlighting the dominance of rate and commodity dynamics.

Market pulse: FX is driven by yield spreads and energy exposure, not risk aversion alone.

Looking ahead
Watch rate differentials and commodity moves. Energy-linked currencies remain sensitive to oil, while USD direction will depend on yields. Any stabilisation in rates could weaken the dollar again.

Key takeaways

Energy shock reshaped inflation expectations across markets.
Equities weakened globally, with Europe and Asia most exposed.
Volatility elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.
Options flow defensive, but not capitulative.
Bond yields surged, repricing policy expectations.
Commodities diverged sharply between energy and metals.
FX driven by rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.

Conclusion

Last week confirmed that markets are no longer trading on isolated themes. Energy, inflation, and policy are now tightly linked, and that linkage is driving cross-asset behaviour.

The next phase depends less on central banks and more on whether macro data confirm that the energy shock is feeding into the real economy. Until then, markets are likely to remain reactive, selective, and structurally hedged.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass

16 March 2026 (recap week of 9 to 13 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Energy risk reshaped the macro narrative. Markets spent the week reacting to renewed Middle East tensions and a sharp rebound in oil prices, pushing inflation risks back into focus and triggering repricing across assets. Equities moved in waves of relief rallies and renewed risk aversion, while bond yields climbed and volatility stayed elevated.

Digital assets held relatively firm and options flows showed investors maintaining exposure but increasingly adding portfolio hedges. With oil volatility now feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy outlooks, investors ended the week cautious and focused on the next round of macro catalysts.

Equities

What happened

AI strength balanced oil-driven macro fears. US equities swung between optimism and caution. The S&P 500 rose early in the week before retreating as Brent crude moved back toward the $100 area and Treasury yields climbed.

Technology remained the strongest pocket of the market. Oracle rallied on AI-related guidance, while semiconductor names such as Nvidia, Intel and Micron benefited from continued demand tied to AI infrastructure spending.

Outside the US, European and Asian equities proved more sensitive to energy shocks. The STOXX 600 rebounded early in the week before oil-driven inflation fears returned. Semiconductor leaders such as ASML and Infineon rallied early, while energy majors including Shell and BP benefited from higher crude prices.

Market pulse: AI remains a structural support for equities, but oil prices are driving short-term sentiment.

Looking ahead

Equity markets now face a catalyst-heavy week. The Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will influence rate expectations, while Micron’s earnings will test whether the AI investment cycle remains intact.

Investors will also watch consumer-facing earnings and global trade signals from companies such as FedEx and Dollar Tree. Together with oil prices, these developments could determine whether equities stabilise or remain headline-driven.

Volatility

What happened

Geopolitics kept volatility elevated. Market volatility remained firm as geopolitical risk drove trading behaviour. The VIX hovered near the high‑20s during the week, while short-dated volatility indicators stayed elevated as investors continued buying protection against sudden market moves.

Options pricing suggested sizeable expected index swings as markets reacted to oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Rather than fading, volatility remained structurally supported by macro risk.

Market pulse: volatility stayed elevated as geopolitics replaced macro data as the main market driver.

Looking ahead

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision could become the next volatility catalyst. Powell’s comments on inflation and energy-driven price pressures will likely influence volatility expectations across equities and rates.

If oil markets stabilise, volatility may gradually decline. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, however, could keep volatility elevated.

Options sentiment

What happened

Options flow prioritised portfolio protection. Options activity showed consistent demand for downside hedging across indices, financials and rate-sensitive ETFs. Institutional investors appeared focused on protecting portfolios against macro shocks rather than positioning aggressively for upside.

Commodity-related options presented a more balanced picture. Energy producers attracted selective upside positioning, while metals miners saw accumulation-style flows reflecting ongoing interest in precious metals.

Market pulse: investors stayed invested but layered systematic hedges across macro-sensitive sectors.

Looking ahead

Options positioning will likely react to upcoming macro catalysts. Central-bank communication and inflation data could influence hedging demand, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

If geopolitical risks persist, demand for downside protection across indices and financials may remain elevated.

Digital assets

What happened

Crypto proved resilient amid macro turbulence. Digital assets held up relatively well compared with equities. Bitcoin traded near the $70k range during much of the week before rising toward the mid‑$70k area late in the period.

Institutional demand remained a key driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fresh inflows during the week, while Ethereum-linked products also attracted demand.

Market pulse: ETF demand continues to anchor institutional interest in crypto.

Looking ahead

Crypto markets will likely track broader liquidity conditions and risk sentiment. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve or rising bond yields could pressure digital assets in the short term.

However, continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption remain supportive structural factors.

Fixed income

What happened

Bond markets repriced inflation risk. Government bond yields moved higher during the week as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns. US Treasury yields climbed as markets priced fewer near-term rate cuts.

European yields also rose as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy prices. Credit spreads widened briefly before stabilising, reflecting more cautious risk appetite.

Market pulse: bond markets are adjusting to a renewed inflation narrative.

Looking ahead

The Federal Reserve meeting will be the key driver for bond markets. Any signal that policymakers are concerned about energy-driven inflation could push yields higher.

Inflation data and economic indicators will also help determine whether markets continue to price fewer rate cuts.

Commodities

What happened

Oil dominated the commodity complex. Energy markets led commodity moves as supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward the $100–$105 range.

Strategic reserve releases were coordinated in response to the disruption, highlighting the scale of supply risks. Precious metals showed mixed performance as safe-haven demand competed with rising yields and a stronger dollar.

Market pulse: oil became the central macro variable for global markets.

Looking ahead

Energy markets will remain the key variable for commodities. Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments and the impact of reserve releases on global supply conditions.

Gold and silver may continue reacting to interest-rate expectations and dollar strength rather than pure safe-haven demand.

Currencies

What happened

Dollar strength returned on safe-haven demand. Currency markets reflected rising risk aversion. The US dollar strengthened during the week, while the euro weakened as energy risks weighed on European sentiment.

The Japanese yen hovered near intervention-sensitive levels against the dollar, while commodity currencies showed mixed performance.

Market pulse: FX markets reacted primarily to energy risk and safe-haven flows.

Looking ahead

Currency markets will focus on the Federal Reserve decision and evolving interest-rate expectations.

Energy price developments may continue influencing currency performance, particularly for energy-importing economies such as Europe and parts of Asia.

Conclusion

The week demonstrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape financial markets through energy prices. Oil’s rebound revived inflation concerns and triggered repricing across equities, bonds and currencies.

Investors have not abandoned risk assets, but positioning has become more cautious, with increased hedging across macro-sensitive sectors. With central-bank decisions, inflation data and major earnings ahead, markets enter the new week balancing structural growth themes with heightened macro uncertainty.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass –
the Iran shock rewrites the market narrative

9 March 2026 (recap week of 2 to 6 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

A geopolitical shock became a macro shock.

The week of 2 to 6 March began as a geopolitical story and ended as a full market repricing. As tensions involving Iran escalated and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices sharply higher, investors were forced to reassess inflation, growth and the path of central bank policy.

That shift was felt across asset classes. Equities swung between relief rallies and renewed selloffs, bond yields moved higher, volatility stayed elevated and the US dollar regained safe-haven support. By the end of the week, markets were no longer treating the conflict as a regional event, but as a potential global inflation and growth shock.

Timeline of market reactions to the Iran shock: equities weaken early in the week, oil and yields rise mid-week, volatility spikes by Friday, and markets enter the new week focused on the oil surge, US inflation data and key earnings catalysts. Source: Saxo

Equities

Equities traded less on fundamentals and more on the price of disruption.

In the US, markets spent the week reacting to oil, yields and geopolitics rather than following a clean earnings-led script. The S&P 500 was roughly flat on 2 March, fell 0.9% on 3 March, rebounded 0.8% on 4 March, and then lost momentum again as oil prices rose and the labour-market backdrop softened into week-end. Technology names still offered selective support, with AI-linked companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell attracting buying interest on company-specific developments, but that leadership was not enough to stabilise the broader market.

Outside the US, the Iran shock was even more visible. European equities were hit by renewed concerns over imported energy costs, with the STOXX 600 falling 1.6% on 2 March and a further 3.1% on 3 March before a mid-week rebound. The FTSE 100 was relatively more resilient thanks to its energy exposure, while continental markets were weighed down by industrials, transport and cyclicals. In Asia, South Korea saw the most violent swings, Japan remained vulnerable as an energy importer, and Hong Kong held up better as large-cap technology names offset some of the wider pressure.

Market pulse: equities increasingly traded as a function of oil, inflation and geopolitical risk rather than company fundamentals.

Options sentiment

The options market pointed to protection first, conviction second.

Across the week, options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection. Broad market positioning leaned defensive, with persistent hedging in index exposure and a more cautious tone in high-beta growth areas. The message from the largest growth stocks also deteriorated through the week, as investors increasingly favoured defensive structures over straightforward upside participation.

The more nuanced picture appeared in energy and metals. In energy, investors still showed willingness to own upside in selected names, but broad sector exposure remained hedged. In metals, positioning stayed constructive, particularly in miners, but was paired with downside protection in the large precious-metals ETFs. Taken together, the signal was not capitulation. It was a market that remained invested, but wanted much more insurance.

Market pulse: investors did not abandon risk, but they consistently paid to protect against further instability.

Volatility

Volatility rose because oil turned geopolitics into policy risk.

The week’s volatility profile stayed elevated throughout. The VIX closed at 21.44 on 2 March, rose to 23.57 on 3 March, eased to 21.15 on 4 March, and then closed Friday at 29.49 as the weekend escalation drove another round of demand for near-term hedges. Short-dated volatility measures remained firm, and downside skew stayed in place, showing that investors were still more focused on protection than on chasing a rebound.

That matters because the rise in volatility was not simply about equity weakness. It reflected uncertainty over energy supply, inflation and central-bank reaction functions. By Monday 9 March, options markets were implying a weekly move of nearly 2.9% in the S&P 500, while downside options remained richer than upside exposure, consistent with a market still bracing for unstable headlines.

Market pulse: volatility stayed high because the market saw Iran as an ongoing macro event, not a one-day shock.

Digital assets

Crypto held up better than many risk assets, but did not decouple from macro stress.

Bitcoin and Ethereum were relatively stable through the week, with Bitcoin trading broadly between the high $67,000s and low $72,000s, while Ethereum held near the $2,000 to $2,130 range. Early in the week, ETF demand helped cushion the asset class, particularly in bitcoin exposure, but that support became less consistent as macro risk intensified.

By the end of the week, the tone had softened. Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative, while Ethereum exposure remained somewhat better supported. That left digital assets looking more resilient than some high-beta equity segments, but still sensitive to the same drivers affecting broader markets: oil, yields and risk appetite. The listed crypto ecosystem also remained under pressure as investors reduced exposure to more cyclical and momentum-driven pockets of the market.

Market pulse: crypto showed resilience, but ETF support softened rather than removed macro pressure.

Fixed income

Bond markets repriced inflation risk faster than recession risk.

US Treasury yields moved higher through much of the week as markets reassessed the inflation implications of rising oil and gas prices. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4.05% early in the week to roughly 4.14% by 6 March, while the 2-year yield moved back above 3.55%. That shift reflected a market becoming less confident that lower rates would arrive quickly if the energy shock proved persistent.

The same pattern appeared elsewhere. German Bund yields rose as Europe faced renewed imported-energy risk, UK gilt yields moved higher as inflation concerns returned, and Japan’s yield curve steepened as longer-dated government bonds came under pressure. Credit markets also reflected a more cautious tone, with high-yield spreads widening before partially retracing during the mid-week risk rebound.

Market pulse: fixed income markets treated Iran less as a growth scare and more as an inflation complication.

Commodities

Commodities were the clearest expression of the Iran shock.

Energy dominated the week’s macro narrative. Brent crude rose sharply through the week and then surged at the Monday 9 March open, briefly nearing $120 a barrel as markets confronted the scale of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of tighter supply in crude, diesel, jet fuel and LNG. Reuters reported that oil rose roughly 25% on 9 March, its highest level since mid-2022.

Natural gas and refined products reinforced the same message. European gas prices spiked early in the week, while broader commodity markets began to price in the inflationary effects of higher energy costs. Gold’s performance was more complex. It initially softened as the dollar strengthened and deleveraging hit hard assets, but the underlying strategic case for precious metals remained intact as markets weighed the risk of a broader stagflationary backdrop.

Market pulse: commodities were not a side story; they were the mechanism through which the conflict reached global markets.

Currencies

The dollar regained its role as the cleanest liquid refuge.

Foreign-exchange moves were more orderly than those seen in equities or commodities, but the direction was still clear. The US dollar strengthened as investors sought liquidity and safety, with EURUSD falling toward 1.1530 during the week before stabilising near 1.1600. USDJPY also pushed toward the upper end of its recent range as higher energy prices and rising global yields complicated the yen’s safe-haven role.

Emerging-market currencies were more visibly pressured by weaker risk sentiment, while sterling also came under pressure as the oil shock raised questions for energy-importing economies. Reuters reported that sterling fell sharply on 9 March as the oil surge forced investors to reconsider the inflation outlook and the likely policy response.

Market pulse: in this phase of the shock, the dollar remained the market’s preferred shelter.

Key takeaways

Iran became the week’s dominant macro driver rather than just a geopolitical backdrop.
Oil, gas and shipping disruption were the key transmission channels into global markets.
Equities remained unstable, with Europe and energy-importing Asian markets hit hardest.
Options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection across broad markets.
Energy and metals positioning stayed selective and hedged rather than outright bullish.
Bond yields rose as markets repriced inflation risk more aggressively than recession risk.
Digital assets proved relatively resilient, though still sensitive to the same macro pressures.

Looking ahead (9 to 13 March 2026)

The key question now is whether the Iran shock remains an energy event or becomes a broader policy problem.

The coming week is heavy with macro and earnings catalysts, but the biggest issue is whether the oil spike proves temporary or starts to feed more deeply into inflation and rate expectations. That distinction matters because it will determine whether markets can continue to look through the conflict or whether earnings expectations and policy assumptions need to be revised lower.

The first major test is US CPI on Wednesday 11 March. That report arrives just before the next Federal Reserve meeting and will be watched closely for any sign that inflation was already proving sticky even before the latest energy surge. Later in the week, the PCE price index will offer a second important inflation checkpoint. If both releases stay firm, the market may conclude that the inflation problem is becoming broader than oil alone.

Earnings also matter. Oracle is due to report on 10 March and Adobe on 12 March, providing fresh read-through for AI spending, software demand and broader confidence in growth leadership. That matters because if core growth sectors start to wobble at the same time as oil stays elevated, the market backdrop becomes materially more fragile.

Housing, trade and consumer data will add texture, but the main checklist remains straightforward: oil, inflation, central-bank expectations and whether risk assets can continue to compartmentalise the conflict.

Market pulse: the week ahead will show whether this remains an energy shock or becomes a wider regime shift for markets.

Conclusion

The first week of March ended with a different market narrative than the one it started with.

What began as a geopolitical escalation involving Iran evolved into a broader repricing across oil, volatility, yields, currencies and equity risk. That matters because it changes how investors interpret every new headline. This is no longer only about regional instability. It is about whether the conflict injects a fresh inflation impulse into a market that was still hoping for lower rates and calmer conditions.

Markets did not respond with indiscriminate panic, but they did respond with a clear increase in hedging and a preference for selective exposure over broad conviction. That is usually what markets look like when investors still see opportunities, but trust the backdrop less with each passing day.

The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 2 March 2026

(Recap week of 23 to 27 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

AI volatility, shifting rate expectations and rising geopolitical tension shaped the final week of February.

Markets oscillated between earnings-driven optimism and renewed caution as policy headlines and sector narratives kept dispersion high. By Friday, bond yields had fallen to fresh cycle lows while equity momentum cooled, setting a more fragile tone into March.
Market pulse: confidence returned mid-week, but conviction faded into the weekend.

Equities

US: AI leadership tested, but breadth improved

US equities swung sharply through the week. After an early selloff on AI disruption fears (23 February), the S&P 500 rebounded to 6,946.13 on 25 February before easing back to 6,908.86 by 26 February as Nvidia fell 5.5% despite strong results. Microsoft (+3.0% on 25 February) and Palantir (+4.2%) supported the mid-week recovery, while sharp earnings reactions in Salesforce and Block underscored rising stock dispersion.
Falling Treasury yields provided valuation support, but widening high-yield spreads suggested investors were becoming more selective.
Market pulse: leadership remains tech-heavy, but earnings volatility is increasing.

Europe and Asia: resilience in Europe, divergence in Asia

European equities pushed to fresh highs mid-week, with the Euro STOXX 50 reaching 6,172.36 on 25 February and the FTSE 100 touching a record 10,910.55 on 27 February. Buyback announcements supported select UK names, while parts of continental Europe stayed sensitive to softer sentiment data.
In Asia, Japan and South Korea outperformed on chip strength, while Hong Kong remained more volatile ahead of China’s policy meetings.
Market pulse: Europe shows resilience, but Asia remains policy- and tech-sensitive.

Volatility

Volatility cooled mid-week, then stabilised

The VIX fell from 21.01 on 23 February to 17.93 on 25 February as equities recovered. By 26 February, it stood at 18.63, signalling that hedging demand had eased but not disappeared. Weekly implied moves narrowed from roughly ±118 points early in the week to ±42 points by expiry.
Elevated skew readings indicate investors still prioritise downside protection.
Market pulse: volatility has eased from stress levels but hasn’t returned to comfort.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning shifts from expansion to protection

Last week’s options activity painted a coherent picture across asset classes: investors largely stayed invested, but with a noticeably stronger emphasis on protection and structure. Broad index and ETF flows showed a clear preference for downside hedges and volatility overlays, signalling that portfolio insurance moved higher up the priority list. Within mega-cap leadership, positioning shifted from straightforward upside participation toward more buffered exposure, suggesting that even in core growth names, risk was being actively managed rather than expanded.

At the same time, metals continued to attract constructive interest as a diversification sleeve, while energy exposure was maintained but increasingly expressed through defined-risk structures. The overall message for investors is not one of panic or capitulation, but of recalibration: capital remains deployed, yet more deliberately hedged.
Market pulse: participation remains intact, but conviction is now expressed through protection rather than leverage.

Digital assets

ETF flows stabilise despite price swings
Bitcoin traded between roughly $63,100 on 23 February and $68,176 on 25 February before easing back below $68,000 into Friday. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$254 million on 26 February after earlier outflows, with IBIT leading, while Ethereum ETFs also saw modest inflows.
Institutional participation therefore appears steady, even as prices react to broader macro shifts.
Market pulse: flows are constructive, but digital assets remain tied to macro sentiment.

Fixed income

Yields fall to cycle lows

US Treasuries rallied into week-end. The 10-year yield closed at 3.94% on 27 February, marking the first weekly close below 4.00% since mid-2024, while the 2-year yield touched levels below 3.41%. High-yield spreads widened to 291 basis points by Friday, the widest of the year.
In Europe, softer inflation readings reinforced expectations that tightening cycles are nearing completion.
Market pulse: bond markets are pricing slower growth and more cautious policy expectations.

Commodities

Gold steady, oil sensitive to geopolitics

Gold traded in a tight range near 5,200 per ounce during the week before breaking higher at the start of March. Silver showed sharper swings, briefly clearing 91 before consolidating.
Crude oil remained sensitive to developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, trading near multi-month highs late in the week. Energy markets are now the clearest barometer of geopolitical risk.
Market pulse: commodities are increasingly driven by geopolitics rather than demand alone.

Currencies

Dollar mixed, sterling pressured by politics

The US dollar fluctuated around 1.1800 in EURUSD through most of the week, while USDJPY reversed sharply on shifting Bank of Japan signals. Sterling weakened after a UK by-election unsettled political expectations, with EURGBP moving above 0.8750.
Commodity-linked currencies stayed sensitive to oil’s move.
Market pulse: FX markets are balancing rate differentials against political risk.

Key takeaways

AI leadership intact, but earnings volatility rising.
European indices resilient; Asia more policy-sensitive.
US 10-year yield closed below 4.00% for first time since mid-2024.
Volatility cooled, but skew remains elevated.
Bitcoin ETF inflows resumed despite price swings.
Oil risk premium building amid Iran tensions.

Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 March 2026)

Geopolitics takes centre stage

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend materially raise geopolitical risk. Markets will focus on three transmission channels: oil supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance and freight costs, and second-round inflation expectations. If higher energy prices persist, they could complicate the recent decline in bond yields and alter expectations for central bank policy paths.

For deeper analysis on the conflict and its market implications, readers can consult our dedicated coverage published this weekend and Monday:

the equities note on the Iran conflict (1 March),
the macro take on what to watch (2 March),
the investor Q&A on the Iran-US escalation (2 March), and
the latest Saxo Market Call podcast (2 March).

These pieces explore cross-asset implications in greater detail.

US labour market in focus

Friday’s US employment report for February is the key macro catalyst. January showed job growth of 130,000, with earlier months revised lower. Markets will assess whether hiring momentum is stabilising or slowing further. ADP employment data mid-week, ISM surveys and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide additional context on growth and pricing pressures.

If payrolls surprise on either side, rate expectations and equity volatility could reprice quickly.

Earnings and consumer signals

After Nvidia’s volatile reaction, semiconductor earnings remain central. Broadcom and Marvell will be watched for AI demand commentary, while CrowdStrike provides a read on software resilience. Retail earnings from Target, Costco and Best Buy should offer insight into consumer demand trends as markets await updated retail sales data.

Market pulse: geopolitics sets the tone, but labour data and earnings will determine whether caution deepens or stabilises.

Conclusion

The final week of February highlighted a market still anchored by technology leadership but increasingly sensitive to macro and geopolitical crosscurrents. Falling bond yields and resilient European equities provide some stability, yet widening credit spreads and elevated skew signal cautious positioning beneath the surface.

As March begins, the combination of Middle East escalation, US labour data and heavyweight earnings could quickly reshape risk appetite. Staying diversified and attentive to cross-asset signals remains essential.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

This is an oil-and-shipping shock first, and a growth-and-earnings story second.
Higher oil can lift inflation and delay rate cuts, making bonds a less perfect hedge.
Long-term investors win by sticking to process, not by trying to trade the headline.

The weekend escalation involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran pulls markets back into “risk-off” mode. Risk-off means investors reduce exposure to shares and other risky assets, and lean into perceived safe havens.

Below is a Q&A built for long-term investors, focused on what matters most and what to watch.

The first domino is not oil, it is the cost of moving oil

Q: What just happened?
Reports point to a sharp military escalation and a jump in maritime risk around the Gulf, with tanker operations disrupted near the Strait of Hormuz. Even limited disruption matters because the strait is a narrow passage that carries a large share of global seaborne energy.

Q: Why do investors keep talking about the Strait of Hormuz?
Because it is a choke point. When a choke point gets risky, markets price two things at once: the barrel, and the delivery. Delivery costs include insurance, rerouting, delays, and “war-risk premia” which is the extra cost to operate in a war zone. Shipping stocks can pop if investors expect freight rates and war-risk surcharges to rise, even though disruption also raises costs and uncertainty.

The move is basically the market saying “rates and surcharges may rise faster than costs, at least at first”. When shipping lanes get risky, carriers often add war-risk and disruption surcharges, and global freight rates can tighten if capacity gets rerouted. That can be positive for large operators even though the situation is operationally messy.

Q: What does “sticky oil” change for a long-term investor?
It changes the inflation path more than it changes long-term demand. Higher energy costs behave like a tax on consumers and many businesses. Over time, that can squeeze profit margins, cool spending, and pressure earnings expectations, especially in energy-intensive sectors.

The second domino is inflation, and that is where the central bank headache begins

Q: Does higher oil automatically mean higher interest rates?
Not automatically. But it can slow the improvement in inflation and make central banks more cautious about cutting rates quickly. The risk is not just higher petrol bills today. The risk is higher inflation expectations tomorrow.

Q: Are government bonds still a safe haven in this kind of shock?
Sometimes, but less reliably than in a pure growth scare. If markets treat this mainly as an inflation shock, bond yields can rise even while shares fall, which weakens the classic “shares down, bonds up” cushion. That is why some investors diversify their hedges across several assets rather than expecting one instrument to do all the work.

A small example from the prior session: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ticker TLT, closed at 90.82 USD, up 0.4%. That is supportive, but it is not a guarantee of protection if inflation fears dominate.

The third domino is leadership rotation, not a permanent change in the rules

Q: Which areas tend to feel the pain first?
Usually the ones hit by a double whammy of higher fuel and weaker demand. Airlines and travel-linked businesses can face both, plus route disruption. Trade-exposed cyclicals especially industrials, consumer discretionary importers, and global manufacturers, often get hit early as delays and higher freight/insurance costs squeeze margins and disrupt supply chains.

Q: Who tends to look steadier, and why?
Energy-linked exposures can benefit from higher oil prices, but they also carry their own headline risk. Defence and security spending can reprice higher as governments focus on protection and resilience, although individual days can still be volatile.

In the prior close, the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF, ticker ITA, closed at 243.72 USD, down 1.0%. That looks counter-intuitive until you remember the market often sells broadly first, then differentiates later.

Q: What about gold, the dollar, and “safe-haven currencies”?
Gold often acts like portfolio insurance because it is less tied to any single country’s earnings outlook. The prior close fits that pattern, with GLD up 2.7%. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc often strengthen in risk-off episodes too. As simple proxies, the Japanese yen trust ETF, ticker FXY, closed at 58.83 USD, up 0.2%, and the Swiss franc trust ETF, ticker FXF, closed at 114.88 USD, up 0.1%.

Risks to watch while the headlines churn

The main risk is escalation that keeps shipping constrained for longer than markets expect. Watch for signs like prolonged tanker queues, wider insurance surcharges, and more rerouting. The second risk is macro. If oil stays elevated, inflation can linger, and rate cuts can become harder to deliver. The third risk is policy surprise, including sanctions, export controls, or emergency measures that alter energy flows and supply chains quickly.

Investor playbook

Treat the first 24 to 72 hours as price discovery, not a verdict on the next five years.
Stress-test your portfolio for higher oil and higher inflation, not just lower growth.
Prefer diversification across regions and sectors over concentrated “war trades”.
Set simple triggers to review risk, such as oil staying elevated for weeks, not days, and inflation expectations rising.

Back to basics, with a side of turbulence

In the end, markets usually return to cash flows and fundamentals. But the path matters. This episode is a reminder that geopolitics can raise the cost of doing business, even when demand stays intact.

For long-term investors, the goal is not to predict the next headline. It is to build a portfolio that can handle several outcomes without forcing you to sell at the worst moment. In other words, keep your process boring. The news will do its best to be exciting for you.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Stocks

Webinar - How to build a solid portfolio: strategies for stability and growth

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 08:00:00 Z

Webinar - How to build a solid portfolio: strategies for stability and growth

Most investors do not need more ideas. They need a better structure.

The replay of our webinar on how to build a portfolio is now live. It is a practical, step-by-step session on turning “I should probably invest” into a simple plan you can actually follow, even when markets get jumpy. We cover the building blocks that matter most: how to set a goal, choose a risk level you can live with, spread investments across different assets, and avoid the classic trap of owning many things that still behave like one thing when markets fall.

You will also learn how to think about diversification (what it is, what it is not), why time horizon is your best friend, and how small habits like regular contributions and occasional rebalancing can do more heavy lifting than perfect timing ever will. No complicated math, no finance background needed, and no “secret sauce”. Just a clear framework you can reuse and a checklist you can apply to your own portfolio.

If you are starting from zero, this helps you start smart. If you already invest, it helps you spot weak links and make your portfolio more resilient.

You can also check out our webinars page for recordings of past sessions, so you can learn at your own pace and revisit the topics that matter most.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Stocks

Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 06:02:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 23 February 2026

(Recap week of 16 to 20 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Rates, geopolitics and trade policy shaped cross-asset direction.

Global markets navigated a week defined by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, resilient but slowing US growth data, renewed Middle East tensions and late-week US tariff headlines. Equities remained broadly resilient despite higher yields, while volatility stayed elevated but orderly. Commodities responded quickly to geopolitical developments, and digital assets tracked macro liquidity conditions rather than internal crypto narratives.

It was a week where policy tone mattered more than positioning, and markets adjusted accordingly.

Equities

US: resilience despite higher yields and policy crosscurrents.

US equities traded in wide intraday ranges but held firm overall. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on 18 February and added 0.7% on 20 February, even as Fed minutes (19 February) signalled caution on rate cuts and Q4 GDP printed at 1.4% (20 February). Nvidia and Amazon advanced on 18 February, reflecting continued AI-related demand, while Deere surged 11.7% on 20 February after raising guidance. Walmart slipped 1.4% the same day after issuing a cautious outlook.

Europe and Asia: local strength, selective earnings pressure and softer Hong Kong tech.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 reached a record 10,556 on 18 February, supported by banks and defence shares including BAE Systems. On the continent, the STOXX 50 rose 1.2% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.8% on 20 February as luxury and industrial names led. France’s LVMH rose 4.4% and Hermès 3.6%, while Airbus fell 6.8% after trimming production targets. In Italy, Enel declined 3.6% following tax changes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended down 1.1% on 20 February as technology stocks cooled ahead of Nvidia’s results.

Market pulse: equity markets rotated across sectors rather than retreating from risk.

Volatility

Elevated, but controlled.

The VIX hovered around 20 throughout the week, easing to 19.62 on 18 February before firming again into the PCE release on 20 February. Short-term volatility gauges cooled mid-week, then re-tightened as inflation and tariff headlines approached.

Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves in a ±1–2% range into expiry, consistent with event hedging rather than systemic stress. Skew remained supported for much of the week, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.

Market pulse: investors are hedging events, not pricing crisis.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Prudence without capitulation.

Across equities and metals, last week’s options activity pointed to disciplined risk management. In broad indices and mega-cap technology, confirmed opening flow leaned heavily toward near-term downside protection, signalling that institutional participants were unwilling to remain unhedged. At the same time, selective longer-dated upside positioning and structured call activity suggest exposure was being recalibrated rather than cut.

In gold and silver, upside participation was visible, but accompanied by hedges in mining equities and targeted downside structures. The aggregate message was not panic, but caution: investors appear to be staying invested while actively pricing in volatility in an environment where macro and headline risks remain elevated.

Market pulse: positioning reflects recalibration, not retreat.

Digital assets

Liquidity-driven consolidation.

Bitcoin traded largely between USD 67,000 and 69,000 during the week before slipping toward USD 65,700 on 23 February as tariff uncertainty resurfaced. Ethereum held near USD 2,000 before easing toward USD 1,880.

ETF flows showed divergence rather than broad withdrawal, suggesting reallocation within the space. Crypto-linked equities broadly tracked US risk sentiment, reinforcing the view that digital assets remain closely tethered to macro conditions and US rate expectations.

Market pulse: crypto continues to behave as a high-beta liquidity proxy.

Fixed income

Yields test and rebound around key levels.

The US 10-year Treasury yield approached the 4.00% threshold early in the week before rebounding toward 4.10% after hawkish Fed minutes and a weak 20-year auction on 19 February. Two-year yields backed up toward 4.47%, keeping “higher for longer” expectations in play.

In Japan, strong demand at a five-year JGB auction (17 February) pushed yields lower, while January CPI slowed to 1.5% (20 February), reinforcing a measured Bank of Japan path.

Market pulse: bond markets remain the primary transmission channel for macro shifts.

Commodities

Energy and precious metals reflect geopolitical risk.

Brent crude rose toward USD 70–71 during the week as US–Iran tensions intensified, before easing modestly. Gold traded within a USD 4,860–5,140 range and briefly moved above USD 5,100 late in the week as tariff uncertainty revived defensive demand. Silver rebounded after mid-week weakness, while copper softened amid rising inventories and seasonal disruptions linked to Lunar New Year.

Market pulse: geopolitical headlines are supporting defensive commodities, while growth-sensitive signals stay mixed.

Currencies

Dollar swings with rates and trade.

The US dollar strengthened mid-week following hawkish Fed minutes, with EURUSD dipping below 1.1800 and GBPUSD breaking under 1.3500 between 19 and 20 February. The tone shifted again on 23 February as renewed tariff headlines weighed on the dollar.

USDJPY traded in a 153–155 range as yield spreads fluctuated, while the Australian dollar outperformed following strong labour data on 19 February.

Market pulse: foreign exchange remains rate-led, with trade policy adding tactical volatility.

Key takeaways

US equities showed resilience despite hawkish Fed minutes and softer GDP.
European markets were supported by defence and luxury strength.
Volatility remained elevated but contained near 20.
US yields retested the 4% zone before rebounding.
Oil and gold reflected geopolitical risk rather than demand optimism.
Digital assets consolidated in line with macro liquidity conditions.

Looking ahead (23 to 28 February 2026)

Earnings in focus: AI, housing and corporate spending.

Nvidia reports on 25 February, a key test for the AI capital expenditure narrative and broader technology valuations. Home Depot reports on 24 February, with housing demand, pricing power and inventory commentary likely to be closely watched. Canadian banks and Dell later in the week extend the read-through to credit conditions and enterprise IT spending, while Berkshire Hathaway’s results on Saturday offer a broader barometer of conglomerate-level economic exposure.

Policy and macro catalysts.

President Trump delivers the State of the Union on 24 February, with trade policy and fiscal framing likely to influence market tone following recent tariff-related legal developments. Federal Reserve speakers, including Governor Waller, remain on the calendar, keeping rate expectations in focus ahead of March policy discussions.

On the data front, the Case-Shiller home price index, weekly jobless claims and January PPI are key releases. A surprise in producer inflation could quickly feed through to front-end yields and the US dollar, with knock-on effects for growth equities and digital assets.

For long-term investors, the emphasis remains on earnings durability in a higher-rate environment.
For active investors, event sequencing around earnings and macro data may create tactical volatility windows across sectors.

Market pulse: rates and forward guidance will likely determine whether resilience extends or risk is repriced.

Conclusion

The week of 16 to 20 February highlighted a market balancing firm macro data, cautious central bank messaging and renewed trade policy uncertainty. Equities absorbed crosscurrents through sector rotation, bonds reasserted their influence over valuations, and volatility remained elevated but orderly.

With major earnings and political communication ahead, positioning appears tactical rather than complacent. Diversification and disciplined risk management remain essential as markets navigate policy-driven crosscurrents.

Related articles/content
Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026 The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 14:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 16 February 2026

(Recap week of 9 to 13 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Global markets navigated a week of shifting narratives, as AI optimism, earnings dispersion and softer US inflation pulled sentiment in different directions.

Early gains in US and European equities gave way to profit-taking and renewed technology-sector caution, while bond yields reset lower after a cooler CPI print. Volatility rose but remained orderly, and digital assets consolidated as ETF flows turned selective rather than one-sided.

Equities

US: data sensitivity and earnings dispersion dominate.

US indices opened firmer, with the S&P 500 at 6,964 on 9 February and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.8% (10 February) as AI-linked shares rebounded. However, flat retail sales (11 February) and mixed earnings guidance prompted selective risk reduction. A stronger-than-expected 130k payroll print (12 February) briefly lifted yields, before CPI reintroduced caution. By 13 February, the Dow had fallen 1.3%, the S&P 500 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.0%.

Single-name dispersion was pronounced. Oracle rose 9.6% (9 February) and Spotify 14.8% (10 February), while Cisco fell 12.3% and AppLovin 19.7% (13 February). Softer CPI at 2.4% year-on-year (reported 16 February) steadied sentiment into the close.

Market pulse: US equities remain highly reactive to inflation and earnings guidance, with leadership rotating quickly.

Europe and Asia: records fade as stock selection drives returns.

European equities followed Wall Street higher early in the week, with the STOXX 600 touching 621.58 (11 February) before easing to 618.52 (13 February). Earnings divergence drove performance: Siemens Energy gained 8.4% (12 February) and Ahold Delhaize 11.5%, while Adyen fell 21.9% and DSV declined 10.5% (13 February). UK Q4 GDP rose just 0.1% (13 February), reinforcing a modest domestic growth backdrop.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.9% to 56,363 (9 February) before moderating later in the week. Hong Kong traded mixed into Lunar New Year closures, while mainland indices were steadier on policy support signals.

Market pulse: outside the US, performance reflects earnings dispersion and macro cross-currents rather than broad trend momentum.

Volatility

Elevated, but structured.

The VIX rose from 17.36 (9 February) to 20.82 (12 February) as CPI and payroll risks approached, closing at 20.60 into the US holiday (13 February data). Short-dated measures such as VIX1D moved above 21, indicating tactical hedging demand, while SKEW near 142–143 showed ongoing appetite for downside protection.

Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves of roughly ±65 to ±82 points mid-week, expanding toward ±128 points into the next expiry. That reflects event risk rather than disorderly positioning.

Market pulse: investors are hedged, but volatility remains contained within defined ranges.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Constructive engagement, framed by protection.

Options flow across indices and large-cap technology indicated continued participation in risk assets, accompanied by deliberate downside protection. Index-level hedging demand remained steady, while positioning in mega-cap technology combined selective upside exposure with near-term insurance.

In metals, particularly gold, flows were two-sided, blending upside participation with structured protection. The overall picture does not signal panic or wholesale de-risking. Instead, it reflects disciplined exposure management in an environment where macro catalysts and sector dispersion remain active drivers.

Market pulse: capital remains deployed, but increasingly through risk-defined structures rather than open-ended directional bets.

Digital assets

Consolidation amid selective ETF flows.

Bitcoin traded largely between the mid- and high-$60,000s during the week, while Ethereum hovered near $1,950–2,040. ETF flows were mixed: IBIT recorded both inflows (+$26.5m on 10 February) and later outflows, while ETHA saw net redemptions mid-week.

Crypto-linked equities experienced sharper swings, with Coinbase down 7.9% (13 February) before stabilising. The pattern suggests tactical repositioning rather than capitulation, with macro data and rate expectations guiding sentiment.

Market pulse: digital assets are consolidating, awaiting clearer macro direction to re-establish trend conviction.

Fixed income

Disinflation supports a yield reset lower.

Treasuries rallied into week’s end. The 10-year yield fell toward 4.05% (13 February), while the 2-year closed below 3.41%, its lowest since 2022. Earlier in the week, payroll strength had lifted the 10-year above 4.20%, underscoring rate sensitivity to data surprises.

In Europe, the German 2-year yield held near 2.07%, reflecting restrained expectations for rapid ECB easing. Japanese long-dated bonds saw strong demand mid-week before a modest curve steepening following softer Q4 GDP.

Market pulse: bond markets are cautiously leaning toward a slower easing path, conditional on sustained inflation moderation.

Commodities

Energy weakens, gold supported, agriculture diverges.

Brent crude slipped below USD 68 by week’s end after failing to sustain moves above USD 70, as inventory builds and ebbing geopolitical risk weighed. Gold remained supported near USD 5,000, benefitting from softer yields late in the week.

Sugar fell to 13.5 cents/lb amid improved supply prospects and weaker consumption trends, while wheat climbed to a three-month high on crop concerns and short covering. Commodity performance reflected positioning shifts rather than structural demand changes.

Market pulse: commodities are trading tactically, driven by macro sensitivity and flow dynamics.

Currencies

Yield differentials continue to anchor FX moves.

The yen strengthened early in the week, with USDJPY falling toward 152.27 (12 February), before rebounding above 153 as the dollar stabilised. EURUSD traded around 1.19, reflecting shifting US rate expectations.

Sterling was volatile following weaker UK GDP, while AUDUSD briefly tested 0.7150 before retreating. FX movements largely tracked bond market repricing rather than independent risk themes.

Market pulse: currency markets remain yield-led, with the yen a key volatility driver.

Key takeaways

US equities volatile as AI narrative shifts and CPI cools to 2.4%.
VIX elevated near 20, but positioning remains orderly.
US 2-year yield below 3.41%, lowest since 2022.
Bitcoin consolidates; ETF flows selective rather than capitulative.
Brent below USD 68; gold supported by softer yields.
Yen swings mirror rate repricing dynamics.

Looking ahead (16–20 February 2026)

A shortened week concentrates risk.
US markets are closed on Monday 16 February for Presidents’ Day, compressing liquidity into four trading sessions. Holiday-thinned conditions often amplify intraday moves when trading resumes.

Policy insight and inflation in focus.
The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday 18 February, offering insight into internal debate around inflation progress and the timing of potential rate cuts. On Friday 20 February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Personal Income and Outlays for December, including the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Confirmation of moderating price pressures would reinforce last week’s yield decline; a surprise could quickly reprice the front end.

Earnings dispersion continues.
Walmart reports on Thursday, providing an important read on US consumer resilience and pricing power. Deere offers insight into agricultural and industrial demand. Analog Devices and Palo Alto Networks will test the durability of AI hardware and cybersecurity spending, while Airbus and Rio Tinto add a European industrial lens.

For active investors, event-driven volatility is likely to persist. For long-term investors, the trajectory of inflation and bond yields remains the primary anchor.

Market pulse: a compressed week with clustered catalysts raises the probability of sharper cross-asset reactions.

Conclusion

Last week demonstrated how quickly sentiment can pivot between growth optimism and disruption concerns. Softer inflation has steadied bond markets and offered tentative support to equities, yet volatility remains elevated as investors assess the durability of disinflation and earnings momentum. With PCE data and FOMC minutes ahead in a shortened week, markets are likely to remain reactive, range-bound and sensitive to policy nuance rather than headline optimism.

Related articles/content
Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026 The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025

More from the author
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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:00:00 Z

Saxo weekly market compass – 9 February 2026

Recap week of 2 to 6 February 2026

Headlines & introduction

February opened with sharp cross-asset swings before markets found a tentative footing into the end of the week. Equity sentiment oscillated between AI-driven sell-offs and forceful rebounds, volatility stayed elevated but orderly, and commodities experienced extreme, liquidity-led moves. At the same time, currencies and rates reflected a reassessment of central bank timing rather than a clear macro break.
Market pulse: investors are recalibrating risk, not abandoning it.

Equities – US: rotation, not capitulation

Earnings discipline returns as the key market filter.
US equities endured a volatile but ultimately stabilising week. Technology weakness early on, driven by concerns around AI monetisation and capital expenditure, gave way to a sharp rebound into Friday (3–6 February). Semiconductor stocks were central to both moves, selling off on cautious guidance before rebounding strongly as dip buyers returned. The Dow’s relative strength highlighted ongoing rotation rather than broad de-risking.

Away from chips, earnings dispersion remained pronounced. Amazon slipped after flagging a step-up in infrastructure spending, keeping margin discipline in focus, while healthcare outperformed as resilient earnings from large pharmaceutical names supported defensives (5 February).
Market pulse: US equities are rotating internally, with selectivity replacing blanket risk appetite.

Equities – Europe and Asia: local stories take the lead

Policy patience meets stock-level reality.
European markets were broadly rangebound, but index stability masked sharp stock-level moves. Germany and the Netherlands saw selective rebounds in industrials and technology, while healthcare sentiment remained sensitive after weaker medium-term guidance from Novo Nordisk earlier in the week (4–5 February). In the UK, equities faced a mixed backdrop as sterling weakness following a dovish Bank of England decision weighed on domestic names, even as exporters found support (6 February).

Asia outperformed on balance. Japan extended record gains following a decisive election outcome that reinforced expectations for fiscal support and pro-growth policy, lifting domestically focused stocks (6–9 February). China and Hong Kong remained more cautious, with tech shares sensitive to global risk swings despite improving services data.
Market pulse: outside the US, equity performance is increasingly shaped by local policy and earnings narratives.

Volatility – elevated, but controlled

Event risk keeps protection in demand.
Volatility remained a defining feature of the week, but without signs of disorder. The VIX fluctuated between the mid-teens and low 20s, peaking mid-week as technology stocks sold off before easing back as equities stabilised (6–9 February). Short-dated volatility stayed firm, signalling persistent demand for near-term protection rather than fear of a systemic drawdown.

Options markets consistently priced meaningful expected moves around key data and earnings, reinforcing a backdrop where timing risk matters. Volatility compressed into the end of the week, but did not fully unwind.
Market pulse: volatility is being managed, not ignored.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning favours resilience over conviction.
Last week’s options activity suggests investors are staying invested but becoming more deliberate about risk. Rather than stepping away from markets, positioning points to a preference for maintaining exposure while actively preparing for larger and more frequent price swings. This shows up in the increased use of protection and hedging alongside continued upside participation, a mix that typically appears when long-term confidence remains intact but near-term uncertainty is rising.

Across asset classes, this behaviour implies a market where direction matters less than resilience. Investors appear to be planning for uneven performance, sharp rotations, and headline-driven moves rather than a smooth, trend-led advance. The signal from options markets is not panic, but prudence: opportunities remain, yet the cost of being wrong is being taken more seriously.
Market pulse: investors are engaged, but risk management has become central to participation.

Digital assets – stabilisation without conviction

Crypto follows macro risk, not its own cycle.
Digital assets spent the week attempting to stabilise after sharp drawdowns. Bitcoin held a wide range between the mid-$60,000s and low-$70,000s, while Ethereum hovered near the $2,000 area, moving largely in step with equity volatility (4–6 February). Price action continues to reflect macro risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific drivers.

ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows mid-week before partial stabilisation, while Ethereum-linked products experienced selective selling rather than wholesale exits. Crypto-linked equities and miners remained more volatile than spot prices, highlighting ongoing deleveraging.
Market pulse: crypto is steadier, but confidence remains conditional on calmer equity markets.

Fixed income – labour data revives the hedge

Rates react sharply, then consolidate.
US Treasury yields fell sharply late in the week as weaker job openings, rising claims, and softer risk sentiment shifted focus back to growth risks (6 February). The 2-year yield briefly dipped below 3.45%, while the 10-year tested the 4.15% area before rebounding as equities stabilised. Credit spreads widened modestly, consistent with caution rather than stress.

In Europe, yields were steadier as the ECB reiterated a data-dependent stance. In Japan, government bond yields pushed higher earlier in the week on fiscal concerns before finding resistance.
Market pulse: bonds are regaining relevance as a portfolio stabiliser.

Commodities – leverage flush dominates price action

Liquidity, not fundamentals, drives extremes.
Commodities delivered the most dramatic moves of the week. Precious metals whipsawed violently after a historic sell-off, with gold recovering above USD 5,000 while silver remained vulnerable to liquidity gaps and forced de-risking (3–6 February). Positioning data showed aggressive reductions in speculative longs, amplifying price swings.

Oil prices eased as US–Iran talks reduced immediate supply risk, while natural gas remained exceptionally volatile after record storage withdrawals and weather-driven reversals.
Market pulse: commodity markets are clearing excess leverage, but stability remains elusive.

Currencies – central bank signals set the tone

Policy divergence, not growth, drives FX.
Currency markets reflected shifting rate expectations. Sterling weakened sharply after a dovish Bank of England hold brought forward expectations for rate cuts (6 February). The yen strengthened later in the week following Japan’s election and renewed official vigilance, while the US dollar traded unevenly as yields swung with risk sentiment.

Commodity-linked currencies were volatile, with the Australian dollar initially supported by an RBA hike before giving back gains as global risk appetite softened.
Market pulse: FX remains a clean expression of relative policy outlooks.

Key takeaways

Equity markets rotated sharply, led by technology volatility and earnings dispersion.
Volatility stayed elevated but orderly, with active use of short-dated protection.
Options flows point to engagement with tighter risk control.
Bonds reacted strongly to labour data, restoring their defensive role.
Commodities saw extreme, liquidity-driven price action.

Looking ahead – data and earnings converge

Macro releases and results may reset expectations.
The coming week brings a dense and potentially market-defining calendar. The delayed US January employment report is due mid-week, followed by the January CPI inflation print on Friday. Together, these releases will be critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, particularly after recent signals of cooling labour demand. Investors will look closely at wage growth, participation rates, and core inflation momentum to assess whether disinflation is progressing quickly enough to reopen the door to rate cuts later in the year.

US retail sales data will provide an additional lens on consumer resilience following the holiday period, helping investors gauge whether softer labour indicators are feeding through to spending. Alongside the data, a heavy slate of central bank speakers could influence rates and currency markets if guidance shifts.

Earnings remain an equally important catalyst. Technology investors will focus on Cisco for insight into enterprise and AI infrastructure demand, while consumer names such as Coca-Cola and McDonald’s will test defensive growth narratives and pricing power. Results from autos, pharmaceuticals, travel and digital platforms, including Ford, Moderna, Airbnb and Shopify, add further scope for sector rotation. Crypto-linked equities remain sensitive to both macro data and digital asset flows, keeping cross-asset correlations high.
Market pulse: with jobs, inflation and earnings clustered together, this week could crystallise the market’s next macro narrative.

Conclusion

Markets ended the week on firmer ground, but confidence remains conditional. Investors are staying engaged while demanding clearer earnings delivery, calmer macro signals, and improved liquidity conditions. With labour data, inflation, and a heavy earnings slate ahead, the balance between stabilisation and renewed volatility will be tested quickly. Staying diversified and flexible remains essential as February unfolds.

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 14:00:00 Z

Saxo weekly market compass – 2 February 2026

Recap week of 26 to 30 January 2026

Headlines & introduction

January ended with equities still resilient, but cross-asset stress shifted decisively into commodities.
Markets opened the week supported by earnings and steady growth signals, then turned more cautious as policy uncertainty and a violent reversal in precious metals tightened risk discipline. Equity indices held near record levels, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased. The defining late-week development was the metals rout and the risk of spillovers into funding conditions and broader risk appetite.
Market pulse: risk stayed on, but conviction required protection.

Equities

US equities hovered near records as earnings optimism met rate sensitivity.
US indices oscillated around fresh highs, with the S&P 500 briefly trading above the 7,000 mark before easing into month-end. Early-week support came from AI-linked names and select mega-cap results, but tone shifted after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and attention turned to policy continuity and leadership risk. Rising yields and a firmer dollar weighed on long-duration growth late in the week, leaving the Nasdaq more exposed than the Dow as investors prioritised balance-sheet strength and earnings quality.
Market pulse: US markets stayed firm, but leadership narrowed and valuation discipline returned.

Europe and Asia saw sharper rotations as growth data met earnings reality.
European equities ended January supported by improving activity signals, with euro area GDP expanding 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, easing recession concerns and underpinning banks and cyclicals across core markets. Stock-specific earnings dominated performance. Luxury names sold off on cautious guidance, while technology diverged sharply after SAP’s cloud outlook disappointed. UK equities were steadier, helped by defensives and energy, while Nordic markets saw pronounced single-stock volatility. In Asia, Japan underperformed as yen strength weighed on exporters, while Hong Kong extended its January rally before a sharp pullback at week’s end as global risk sentiment cooled.
Market pulse: macro improved at the margin, but earnings and global risk set direction.

Volatility

Surface calm masked pockets of rising stress.
Equity volatility remained contained for most of the week, with headline measures anchored in the mid-teens. Short-dated volatility reacted to the Fed decision and major earnings rather than signalling systemic fear. Late in the week, stress migrated into commodities, where forced unwinds amplified price swings. That shift unsettled broader sentiment despite stable equity volatility readings.
Market pulse: volatility stayed low, but the stress point moved elsewhere.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning stayed constructive, but risk discipline clearly tightened.
Options activity suggests investors remained engaged while becoming more selective in how exposure was expressed. Broad index positioning indicates a willingness to stay invested, but this exposure is increasingly paired with protection, highlighting the elevated priority of risk management. Among large US technology stocks, flows favoured balanced structures that combine participation with defined outcomes, including income generation and capped upside. Overall, the options market points to confidence in market resilience, alongside a clear acknowledgement that near-term event risk warrants caution rather than unhedged optimism.
Market pulse: engaged participation, disciplined risk control.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked macro liquidity rather than crypto-specific news.
Digital assets softened into month-end, moving in line with broader risk sentiment. Price action suggested gradual deleveraging rather than panic, as a firmer dollar and sensitivity to real yields weighed on demand. ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone, with selective resilience earlier in the week giving way to broader outflows as policy uncertainty rose.
Market pulse: crypto stayed defensive, awaiting clearer macro signals.

Fixed income

Bonds quietly regained defensive appeal.
Rates traded in a relatively narrow range, but directionally investors leaned toward safety as commodities collapsed. US Treasuries attracted demand as leverage was reduced across other asset classes, while longer-dated yields eased back toward key technical levels. In Japan, government bond yields stabilised after softer inflation data and reduced near-term tightening pressure.
Market pulse: fixed income resumed its stabilising role.

Commodities

Metals broke first as leverage and margin dynamics flipped a record rally into a rout.
The week’s defining move was the collapse in precious metals following an extraordinary run. Gold and silver fell sharply after reaching record highs, with silver’s drawdown particularly severe as crowded positioning unwound. Exchange margin increases amplified the move, forcing deleveraging into thin liquidity. The impact quickly spread to listed miners and commodity-linked equities, while a firmer dollar added pressure across non-yielding assets. Energy and industrial metals also retreated, reinforcing the sense of a broad-based tightening in risk conditions rather than a single-market correction.
Market pulse: metals shifted from momentum to forced de-risking, and the aftershocks still matter.

Currencies

The US dollar found a floor after extreme weakness.
FX markets pivoted as the commodity shock and policy uncertainty drove renewed demand for the dollar. The euro held relatively firm on improving growth data, while the yen remained volatile. Commodity-linked currencies reversed earlier gains in line with falling metals and energy prices.
Market pulse: currencies moved from trend to consolidation as stress rose.

Key takeaways

Equities remained resilient, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased.
Volatility stayed low in equities, with stress migrating into commodities.
Options markets signalled engagement paired with tighter risk control.
Bonds regained defensive appeal late in the week.
Precious metals experienced a historically violent reversal.
The US dollar stabilised after sharp early-week weakness.

Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 February 2026)

Markets test whether the metals shock stabilises or spills further across assets.
The immediate focus is on whether gold and silver can find a base after margin-driven deleveraging, or whether further selling pressures miners, commodity-linked credit and broader risk sentiment. If metals volatility persists, investors will watch for knock-on effects via a firmer dollar, tighter financial conditions and rising cross-asset correlations.

Macro data then becomes the referee. The US calendar is dense, with ISM manufacturing, job openings and ADP employment early in the week, culminating in Friday’s January employment report. Labour-market surprises will be critical for rate expectations following the Fed’s recent hold.

Earnings remain central to index leadership. Results from Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Disney and Palantir will shape views on AI investment, cloud demand and margins. In the current environment, markets are likely to reward visibility and balance-sheet strength over headline beats, especially if cross-asset volatility remains elevated.

Market pulse: containment first in metals, then in rates expectations.

Conclusion

January closed with equities near record levels, but the week’s message came from commodities rather than stocks. Leverage can unwind faster than narratives, and the metals rout has tightened risk discipline across markets. If stability returns quickly, risk assets may regain momentum. If not, spillovers into currencies, credit and volatility could keep investors cautious as February begins.

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap & insight (video)

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 07:47:00 Z

This video summarises the key developments from the week of 19 to 23 January 2026, including shifts in equities, volatility, currencies and commodities. It highlights how policy signals, options positioning and headline risk shaped market moves, and what themes could drive markets in the week ahead.

For the full written analysis with data and detailed commentary, read the Weekly Market Compass article via the following link:

Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Webinar: the FX Outlook from here and Mastering FX

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 11:30:00 Z

Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy discusses the lay of the land for currencies in the Trump 2.0 era.

Note: This is marketing material.

In this webinar, Saxo’s Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy takes you through the important new features in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape that will shape markets for years to come, delves into the outlook for the major currencies in this context and, making a number of directional calls. As well, some observations on how he views technical analysis as well as John’s answering of a number of great viewer questions.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Highlighted articles Forex Macro

Point marché de la semaine du 5 mai

Mon, 05 May 2025 07:00:00 Z

test

Nicolas Du Repaire

Sales Trader

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro

Stock Markets are Plummeting: What's Happening?

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:00:00 Z

The developments in tariffs have accelerated rapidly, and Trump’s global trade war has officially kicked off with a bang. Yesterday, Trump surprised the markets by announcing a 90-day pause on most of the newly introduced tariffs – but at the same time, the rhetoric toward China has intensified, with the country now facing the threat of additional sanctions.

To help you understand the latest developments and headlines, our Head of Investment Strategy, Jacob Falkencrone, share his analysis of the situation – and discuss how you, as an investor, can best navigate the market right now.

Watch or rewatch the webinar above.

Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Equity US Election 2024 En hurtig tanke Volatility investor TagFeed

Invest in themes with Saxo

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 11:47:00 Z

Check out our recent presentation on how thematic investing can help you capture future trends and align your investments with your passions.

Agenda:

Welcome & introduction
- Introduce thematic investing and its growing popularity, highlighting why it can be both profitable and engaging.
What is thematic investing?
- Investing in trends and sectors shaping the future, offering targeted exposure and diversification, and alignment with personal interests.
Why invest in themes?
- Capture transformative trends early, diversify portfolios, and combine passion with profit.
Introducing the different Saxo themes
- 20 themes grouped into categories like AI, Robotics, Defence, Electric vehicles, etc.
Deep dive into a few selected themes
- A closer look at selected high-potential themes.
Get Started with thematic investing
- How to get started with Saxo Bank
Q&A

Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Theme - Artificial intelligence Theme - Defence Theme - Electric vehicles Theme - Clean energy Theme - Big pharma Theme - Luxury Theme - Robotics and automation Theme - Digitalization Theme - Dividend growth Theme - Emerging market growth Theme - Genomics Theme - Green metals Theme - Precious metals Theme - Agribusiness Theme - Green transition Theme Category - Equities Theme - Oil and gas majors Theme - Women in leadership Theme - Construction Theme - Cyber security

Here's why you shouldn't be scared about volatile markets

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 12:38:00 Z

Understanding volatility: a beginner's guide to navigating the market

Volatility in the stock market can feel intimidating, especially for new investors. However, understanding it is a crucial step towards becoming a confident and informed investor.

What is volatility?

Volatility refers to how much and how quickly the price of an asset, such as a stock, fluctuates over time. Think of it as the market's "mood swings." While the global stock market has historically delivered an average annual return of about 8%, these returns come with periods of ups and downs—some dramatic, others mild.

Why does volatility matter?

For investors, volatility represents both risk and opportunity. High volatility means prices can change dramatically in a short period, offering chances for higher returns but also increasing the risk of losses. Low volatility, on the other hand, indicates more stable prices but generally lower potential gains.

How to handle volatility

Navigating volatile markets requires strategy and patience. Here are three key tips:

• Don’t try to time the market

Timing when to buy or sell based on market movements is extremely difficult, even for seasoned professionals. Attempting to do so often leads to missed opportunities.

• Diversify your portfolio

Diversification—spreading your investments across different asset types like stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities—is one of the best ways to manage risk. Think of it as a balanced diet for your portfolio: it ensures you’re not overly dependent on any single investment.

In this video, you can get tips on how to diversify your portfolio in a simple way

• Stay focused on long-term goals

Short-term market fluctuations can be unsettling, but keeping your eyes on long-term objectives helps you stay grounded during turbulent times. Looking at your portfolio from day to day might give you a false picture of the reality. Zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

Embracing volatility

Volatility is not something to fear—it’s an inherent part of investing. By staying informed, diversifying your portfolio, and maintaining a long-term perspective, you can turn volatility into an opportunity rather than a challenge.

Stay informed, stay diversified, and remember that volatility is just one part of the investment journey. So embrace the ups and downs—they’re all part of the ride towards financial success!

Benjamin Faltz

Head of Video Content

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke ETFs ETF ETF Inspiration MSCI MSCI World Index Equities

Saxo Welcomes J. Safra Sarasin Group as New Shareholder

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 08:14:00 Z

We are pleased to announce that Bank J. Safra Sarasin AG is set to become a major shareholder in Saxo Bank, acquiring a 70% stake by purchasing shares from Geely Financials Denmark A/S, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd and Mandatum Group.

Share the news and refer a friend:

Refer a friend in SaxoTraderGo
Refer a friend in SaxoInvestor

This strategic partnership underscores our commitment to providing exceptional service and innovative solutions to our clients and partners worldwide. With Kim Fournais continuing as CEO and maintaining his significant stake, Saxo Bank will remain an independent entity, ensuring stability and continuity for all our stakeholders, employees, partners, and clients.

By combining the strengths of Saxo and Safra, we aim to enhance our offerings and set new benchmarks for client experience and innovation in the financial industry. Thanks to Geely and Mandatum for the support throughout the past seven years, and thank you to all our clients and partners for your continued trust and support.

For more details, please find the press release on our website.

Saxo

Topics: Saxo Spotlight Financials Stocks En hurtig tanke Equities

Saxo Bank announces record 2024 results

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 08:00:00 Z

The Saxo Bank Group announces its financial results for 2024, achieving the best results in the company's history. The Group reported a net profit of DKK 1,005 million for 2024, compared to a net profit of DKK 260 million for 2023, corresponding to an increase of 287%. The adjusted net profit for 2024 ended at DKK 1,074 million.

In early 2024, Saxo Bank implemented favorable reduced pricing for clients as part of its new global pricing strategy. This reduction is part of the ongoing commitment to improve the value offered to clients and is closely linked to the ability to provide cost-effective solutions alongside the bank's award-winning platforms, products, and services.

By meeting the clients’ needs and becoming a price-leader across many markets, Saxo Bank experienced sustained growth and reached a record of almost 1.3 million clients by the end of 2024, with all time high client assets of DKK 853 billion.

2024 key figures at a glance (2023):

Total income: DKK 4,670 million (DKK 4,481 million)
Net profit: DKK 1,005 million (DKK 260 million)
Adjusted net profit: DKK 1,074 million (DKK 653 million)
Total equity: DKK 6,254 million (DKK 6,366 million)
Total client assets: DKK 853 billion (DKK 745 billion)
Total number of clients: 1,286,000 (1,159,000)
Capital ratio: 29% (32%)

Commenting on the results, Kim Fournais, CEO and Founder of Saxo Bank, said:

“I am very proud to report that 2024 was the best financial year in Saxo Bank’s history. This is clearly a very satisfactory result for us. The progress underscores our steadfast commitment to creating value for all our stakeholders and strengthening our foundation for sustainable growth. With almost 1.3 million clients and client assets reaching an impressive DKK 853 billion, these milestones showcase the trust and confidence placed in Saxo Bank. Our comprehensive trading and investment platforms have provided robust tools and resources, enabling our clients and partners to navigate the markets efficiently and build more resilient, diversified portfolios.

The result is naturally also a large testament to the collective efforts of our employees who have driven Saxo Bank's performance and achievements this year.

In 2024, we welcomed several new initiatives to make Saxo Bank attractive for even more people. A few highlights are the introduction of more competitive prices across products and the launch of our automated monthly investing account known as AutoInvest. We also introduced our Investor platforms to more markets, enabling more curious people to get invested in the world.

Moving forward, our strategic focus remains unchanged. We continue to focus on growing our number of clients and client assets, and on enhancing the product and platform offerings to the benefit of our clients while focusing on our core markets.

In our commitment to protecting our clients and upholding the integrity of our business, Saxo Bank has continued to make significant investments and improvements in compliance, anti-money laundering, cyber security, and risk management. This will remain a core priority as well.”

The full report is available here: https://www.home.saxo/about-us/investor-relations

Saxo

Topics: Saxo Spotlight Financials Stocks

Don't put all your eggs in one basket

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 11:36:00 Z

How to Build a Diversified Portfolio with ETFs

Diversification is a cornerstone of successful investing. It helps reduce risk by spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, and regions. But how can you achieve this efficiently? Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) offer a simple, yet effective way to create a well-diversified portfolio, tailored to your goals and beliefs.

What is Diversification?
Diversification means not putting all your eggs in one basket. By investing in different asset classes, sectors, or regions, you minimize the impact of poor performance in any single area. This strategy smooths returns over time and reduces overall portfolio risk.

What Are ETFs?
ETFs are investment funds traded on stock exchanges, similar to stocks. They hold a collection of assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities and are designed to track the performance of specific indices or sectors. This makes them an accessible tool for both new and experienced investors.

Benefits of Using ETFs for Diversification

Broad Exposure: ETFs provide access to various asset classes and sectors. Whether you're interested in technology, healthcare, or emerging markets, there's likely an ETF that aligns with your interests.
Cost Efficiency: ETFs often have lower expense ratios compared to mutual funds, making them a cost-effective choice for long-term investors.
Ease of Use: Instead of buying individual stocks or bonds, you can invest in a basket of securities with one transaction. This saves time and reduces transaction costs.
Flexibility and Liquidity: ETFs can be bought and sold throughout the trading day at market prices, allowing investors to respond quickly to market changes.
Transparency: Most ETFs disclose their holdings daily, giving you clear insight into what you're investing in.

Building Your Portfolio with ETFs
To build a diversified portfolio using ETFs:

Choose Different Asset Classes: Include stocks, bonds, and possibly commodities.
Diversify Across Sectors and Regions: Invest in multiple industries and geographic areas.
Rebalance Regularly: Adjust your portfolio periodically to maintain your desired asset allocation as markets fluctuate.

Not sure how to rebalance your portfolio? This video will provide you with the answers:

Conclusion ETFs are a powerful tool for achieving diversification. They offer exposure to a wide range of assets while being cost-effective, flexible, and easy to manage. By incorporating ETFs into your investment strategy, you can build a resilient portfolio that aligns with your financial goals.

Benjamin Faltz

Head of Video Content

Saxo Bank

Topics: ETFs Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETFs ETF ETF Inspiration MSCI MSCI World Index

Is it time to rebalance your portfolio?

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:14:00 Z

Revitalize Your Portfolio: A New Year’s Guide to Rebalancing

Now that 2024 turned into 2025, it's the perfect time to give your investment portfolio a fresh start. Much like the legendary investor Warren Buffett, who is known for his strategic moves in the market, investors are encouraged to take a closer look at their portfolios and consider rebalancing to align with their financial goals and risk tolerance.

The Importance of Rebalancing

Rebalancing is similar to maintaining a garden. Over time, market fluctuations can alter your asset allocation, potentially exposing you to unintended risks. By rebalancing, you ensure that your portfolio remains aligned with your investment strategy, providing stability even as markets fluctuate.

Strategies for Rebalancing

There are two primary approaches to rebalancing your portfolio: calendar-based and threshold-based strategies. The calendar-based method involves reviewing and adjusting your portfolio on a set schedule, such as semi-annually or annually. The threshold-based approach requires adjustments when asset allocations deviate from predetermined percentages. Choosing the right method depends on your investment style and time commitment.

Steps to Effective Rebalancing

To effectively rebalance your portfolio, follow these steps:

Assess Current Allocations: Evaluate your current asset distribution.
Compare to Target Allocations: Identify discrepancies between current and target allocations.
Adjust Holdings: Buy assets that are below target and sell those that exceed target allocations.
Document Changes: Keep a record of all adjustments for future reference.

Avoiding Common Pitfalls

Investors often face pitfalls such as emotional decision-making and neglecting to rebalance. It's crucial to maintain a consistent strategy and consider factors beyond asset classes, such as geography and sectors. Avoid trying to time the market, as this can lead to missed opportunities.

Conclusion: A Well-Balanced New Year

As we step into the New Year, take a cue from seasoned investors and ensure your portfolio is working as hard as you are. By avoiding common mistakes and implementing a robust rebalancing strategy, you can set the stage for a prosperous and well-balanced financial future. Remember, the key to successful investing is sticking to your long-term strategy and not making rash decisions based on short-term market movements. Here's to a prosperous New Year!

Benjamin Faltz

Head of Video Content

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Equities

Will Elon Musk's alliance with Donald Trump help Tesla fast-track their technologies?

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 12:54:00 Z

The Musk-Trump Alliance: Tesla's Stock Soars

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and business, an unexpected partnership has emerged, sending shockwaves through the stock market. The alliance between newly re-elected President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not only captured headlines but also propelled Tesla's stock to unprecedented heights.

The Unlikely Partnership

Donald Trump, known for his skepticism of electric vehicles and green energy initiatives, has found an unlikely ally in Elon Musk, the eccentric billionaire behind Tesla and SpaceX.

This partnership has led to a significant shift in Trump's rhetoric on electric vehicles, with the President now stating, "I'm for electric cars".

Tesla's Stock Skyrockets

The impact of this alliance on Tesla's stock has been nothing short of remarkable:

Tesla's stock hit an all-time high of $488 per share
The company's market value surged by 73% in 2024
November alone saw a 38% increase, marking Tesla's best monthly performance since January 2023

The Musk Factor

Elon Musk's influence on this rally cannot be overstated:

Musk invested $277 million in Trump's campaign
He's been a constant presence at Trump's Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago
Trump appointed Musk to co-chair the new 'Department of Government Efficiency'

What This Means for Tesla

Investors are betting big on Tesla for several reasons:

Regulatory Relief: With Musk's influence in the White House, Tesla might face less scrutiny from federal agencies
Self-Driving Cars: There's hope for fast-tracked federal framework regulations on autonomous vehicles, potentially giving Tesla an edge
AI Advancements: Wall Street sees Tesla as an undervalued AI player, especially in the realm of self-driving technology

The Risks

Despite the optimism, there are potential pitfalls:

The possibility of eliminating EV tax credits could hurt Tesla's sales
State-level investigations into Tesla remain a concern
The Tesla brand could become associated with political alliance, reducing Tesla's market share potential

What's Next?

As we look to the future, the Musk-Trump alliance has undeniably reshaped the landscape for Tesla and the entire electric vehicle industry. Whether this partnership will continue to boost Tesla's fortunes or lead to unexpected challenges remains to be seen.

In the world of stocks, what goes up can come down. As with any investment, it's crucial to do your own research and consider your long-term strategy before making decisions based on short-term market moves.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro Tesla Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. EV Electric Vehicle Vehicle Artificial Intelligence

Does Warren Buffett know something that we don't?

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 10:42:00 Z

What’s behind Buffett’s selling?

When it comes to the markets, there are few investors more legendary than the “Oracle of Omaha”, Warren Buffett. As the CEO of American multinational Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Buffett has become an icon, famed for his buy-and-hold investing style, as well as his huge – and hugely profitable – stakes in companies such as Apple and Bank of America.

Recently, Buffett has been making waves in the financial world by selling a staggering USD 97 billion in stocks in the first half of 2024. With Buffett’s every move eagerly watched and analysed, this unprecedented sell-off has investors worldwide asking what’s behind Buffett’s selling and what could it mean for the markets?

A giant slice of Apple

Buffett has been a long-time investor in Apple, a stock he had previously considered one of the “forever” holdings in his portfolio. So, when Buffett decided to reduce his stake in Apple, investors watched in surprise as Berkshire Hathaway sold approximately USD 90 billion worth of Apple shares in the first six months of 2024.

Billions in the Bank

Just as shocking, Buffett has also sold about 23% of his stake in Bank of America since mid-July. This mega-sale of roughly USD 10 billion in shares has dropped Berkshire’s ownership in Bank of America from 13.2% down to 10.2%.

As a result of these two massive sell-offs, Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on USD 325 billion in cash. That’s a lot of firepower for Buffett’s future investments or acquisitions.

Digging into the sell-off

The market is buzzing with possible explanations for Buffett’s selling spree, as investors try to fathom what it could mean for their own portfolios. Here are the top potential reasons:

Profit-taking: The market has been hitting new all-time highs this year, so Buffett may simply be taking advantage of sky-high stock valuations and locking in gains.
Tax considerations: The Oracle has actually spoken on this, citing the prospect of higher capital gains taxes as one reason for selling.
Market caution: With geopolitical conflicts, recent US elections and the threat of inflation all adding to market uncertainty, Buffett may be playing it safe by increasing his cash position.
Portfolio rebalancing: Every investor needs to adjust their holdings over time to keep their portfolio balanced – Buffett is no exception.
Strategy switch: Berkshire could be shifting its strategy and looking for larger acquisitions that require more cash on hand. That huge capital reserve also means Buffett could invest in new emerging sectors or industries that he hasn’t focused on before.

What does it all mean for investors?

Buffett is too big to ignore – everything he does has an effect on investors. So, should Buffett’s recent selling – and his gigantic cash position – worry you? While it’s too early to tell, it’s important to remember that Buffett’s core investing strategy is based on long-term value and that time in the market beats timing the market, period.

While we can only guess what’s behind Buffett’s selling and his mind-blowing USD 325 billion cash position, the wisest course for investors is simple:

Stick to your own long-term investment strategy
Don’t make rash decisions based on short-term market moves

Buffett’s moves always provide food for thought, but in the end, he’s just one of many guideposts in the market. Still, you can be sure that investors will be watching closely to discover just what Buffett will do with his substantial cash reserves in the months ahead.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro Apple Apple Inc. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B Bank of America Berkshire Hathaway

COP29: Does It Really Make a Difference?

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 07:00:00 Z

This year marks the 29th edition of the Conference of the Parties (“COP”), the United Nations conference dedicated to addressing climate change by assessing progress and making decisions on climate action. Scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 24, 2024, the choice of location has sparked debate. Similar to last year’s conference in Dubai, many are questioning the implications of hosting the event in an oil-producing country, with critics arguing that this raises potential conflicts of interest.

What has COP accomplished over the years

COP is a significant global event that brings together a diverse array of participants, including influential decision-makers. Over the years, COP has achieved remarkable milestones:

COP 21: Paris Agreement where countries committed to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict the rise to 1.5°C.
COP 26: Nations reaffirmed their focus on the 1.5°C target, recognizing that the 2°C goal would lead to severe consequences, including extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem disruptions.
COP 27: The establishment of a loss and damage fund, aimed at compensating developing countries for the impacts they face due to the actions of more industrialized nations, which bear greater responsibility for the climate crisis.
COP 28: Nations agreed to transition away from fossil fuels and triple the world’s renewable energy capacity.

While these milestones are significant, it’s crucial to recognize the gap between aspirations and reality, which can at times impede progress. A striking illustration of this is the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, which has driven gas prices to record highs. Consequently, many countries, including in the EU, have turned to seeking new fossil fuel sources. This shift represents a significant obstacle to the ambitions of limiting global temperatures to 1.5°C and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

What is the current climate situation

Well not so good. The first Global Stocktake at COP 28 revealed concerning trends, indicating that we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are currently about 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, with projections suggesting we could reach 1.5°C by 2040. The year 2023 was recorded as the warmest year for both land and ocean, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, despite the need for a reduction of approximately 7% per year to stay within the 1.5°C limit.

What can we expect from COP 29 and does it even matter

COP 29 will focus on climate finance and key outcomes are expected to include updated national commitments and financial mechanisms aimed at supporting climate action, particularly for loss and damage in vulnerable countries. However, the outcomes of COP 29, like those of previous COPs are uncertain; some years bring significant achievements while others seem to fade into obscurity. Only time will tell if COP 29 will emerge as a pivotal one in the fight against climate change.

Still one thing is clear: COP matters. It is a major global event that brings together influential decision-makers and has achieved remarkable milestones over the years. Holding the conference, serves as an annual reminder to everyday citizens, conference participants and governments alike that we are facing a climate crisis and must stay committed to our goals.

How to invest in climate change

Climate change is a pressing global challenge that impacts all of us and will continue to affect future generations. It’s important that we take an active role in addressing this issue and one effective way to contribute is by investing in companies and sectors that actively promote solutions for climate mitigation and adaptation.

Examples of such sectors include:

Clean and renewable energy (like wind, solar, and biofuels)
Low-carbon transportation (such as electric vehicles)
Sustainable agriculture
Innovative cooling systems, etc.

A variety of investment products are available, including individual stocks and ETFs that align with climate benchmarks such as the Paris Agreement or climate transition benchmarks. You can explore Saxo’s Climate Change theme for a list of stocks and funds that seek to address climate change problem in a variety of ways.

Before making any investments, be sure to review the available information about the product on the platform and consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon.

Ida Kassa Johannesen

Head of Commercial ESG and Education

Saxo Bank

Topics: ESG Highlighted articles

The Trump trade enters the metal markets

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 07:29:00 Z

In this week's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy and Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole S. Hansen. They discuss the status and expectations of the earnings season as well as the US election with just two weeks to go.

Listen to the full episode now or follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:

If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Saxo

Topics: Podcast Macro Equities Highlighted articles Commodities

2024 US Election: Is your portfolio ready?

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 12:30:00 Z

The recording of an in-depth webinar we hosted with special guest Blu Putnam, former CME Group Chief Economist. It covers everything US Election related: where the economy is headed, election scenarios and where the odds may have it wrong, and the election impact under the very different scenarios.

This is a recording of the in-depth webinar we hosted with special guest Blu Putnam, former CME Group Chief Economist. It covers everything US Election related:

Where the US economy is and whether we are set for hard-, soft- or no landing
How the election odds are shaping up and what the betting markets may be missing
How financial markets may react to the different scenarios, from a Trump sweep to Trump- or Harris gridlock.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: US Election 2024 US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed US elections - NL campaign Macro Equity Options Highlighted articles

These commodities might be impacted by the US election

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 11:22:00 Z

This content is marketing material.

The outcome of the US election could potentially be a key factor in the price development of certain commodities. In this video we will take a closer look at potential winners and losers after the US election in November.

Trump win

If Donald Trump decides to introduce these tariffs on Chinese imports, that might lead to an increase in inflation, and potentially force China to add tariffs on US food commodities which will hurt the US farmers and their possibility to export products such as corn and soy beans.

Harris win

With a Harris win, an introduction of unfunded spending on social projects could potentially lead to higher inflation. Fossil fuel investments might take a hit as well, given the increased focus on green energy and electric vehicles.

Conclusion

No matter the outcome, an increased spending will need extra funding, and without a tax raise, the US debt level is likely to increase even more, which will add to the risk of an increased inflation level.

All of these factors might lead investors to look for safety and that has historically pointed towards investment metals where gold is likely to benefit from that increased focus.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: US Election 2024 Highlighted articles Commodities En hurtig tanke Macro

Jim Rogers' Investing Wisdom: Insights from Saxo Unfiltered

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 04:30:00 Z

Saxo’s Singapore team recently hosted the “Saxo Unfiltered: The Election” event, where legendary investor Jim Rogers captivated the audience with his timeless investing wisdom and candid views on the current economic landscape.

Mr. Rogers’ Views on Global Economy and Markets

The US Election & Market Outlook

Rogers emphasized that the upcoming US elections could trigger market turbulence. He believes the US is overdue for a bear market, and with prolonged financial challenges on the horizon, he has largely sold his US shares. Historically, he pointed out, whoever is leading in the polls at this stage often does not win the election.

Bets on China and Uzbekistan

In a contrarian stance, Rogers favors regions like China and Uzbekistan for growth opportunities, expressing caution about traditional giants like the US and Europe. He sees potential in these emerging markets, highlighting their capacity for significant transformation and growth compared to more established economies, which may have limited upside at present. Mr. Rogers sees the structural change in Japan as a positive but remains concerned about high debt levels there.

"Cheap and Change"

Rogers emphasized that the best opportunities lie in undervalued markets or assets undergoing significant transformation. He highlighted India and Indonesia as examples of countries currently experiencing major change. Though he regrets selling his Indian stocks too early, he doesn’t find the current levels attractive enough to re-enter.

Commodities

Known for his bullish stance on commodities, Rogers reiterated his belief that real assets such as silver, oil, wheat, and copper will gain value, especially as inflation returns due to excessive money printing.

Silver Over Gold

He highlighted silver as a particularly attractive investment now, with prices down 40% from its all-time high, while gold is trading at record levels. If he were to buy today, Rogers would choose silver over gold, given its relative value. However, over the long-term, he still plans to buy more of both the precious metals.

Electric Vehicles

Rogers anticipates that the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will boost demand for essential materials like copper and lead. As EV adoption accelerates, he sees these commodities as critical to the future.

Agriculture

Rogers painted a bullish picture for agriculture, pointing out that farming is becoming less competitive due to a declining number of new farmers worldwide. With the average age of farmers increasing—76 in Japan, 58 in Australia and the US—he sees the lack of competition leading to exciting and profitable opportunities in the sector. "The world is running out of farmers," he noted, suggesting that those who step in will reap significant rewards.

Mr. Rogers’ Investment Philosophy

In addition to his market views, Mr. Rogers also shared his investment philosophy, which reflects decades of experience navigating both successes and failures in the financial world:

Understand the Market

Rogers cautioned that even if you're right about the fundamentals, you can still lose money if you don't understand market dynamics and the behavior of other participants. He emphasized that investing is more than just knowing facts—it's crucial to understand how markets move and how other investors think.

Invest in What You Know

A key piece of advice Rogers offered was to never invest based on hot tips. He strongly advised against investing in anything until you know a great deal about it yourself, warning that blindly following tips can lead to costly mistakes.

Sticking to what you understand deeply is essential, according to Rogers. He warned against chasing hot trends and emphasized the need for patience and thorough knowledge of any investment.

Learn from Mistakes

Reflecting on his own career, Rogers advised young investors not to fear losing money, especially early on. He believes that making mistakes early can be a powerful teacher, helping investors become more resilient in the long term.

Be Boring

Rogers encouraged "boring" investing—focusing on sound fundamentals, not chasing the latest fads. His focus remains on steady, reliable strategies that deliver over time.

Jim Rogers' investment philosophy remains grounded in patience, deep research, and the belief that enduring value lies in real, tangible assets. For investors looking to navigate uncertain times, his insights offer timeless wisdom.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Macro Equities Commodities Gold Silver India Indonesia China United States Europe Japan Copper

Gold vs. Silver: Which metal will perform best?

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 11:49:00 Z

2024 has been a significant year for investment metals, with gold receiving substantial attention. The demand for gold has been driven by various factors, including the recent rate cut in the US, which has made it cheaper for investors to buy gold due to lower funding costs.

Interestingly, while gold has seen a 25% increase this year, silver has performed even better, rising by around 27%. Silver often mirrors gold's movements but in a more exaggerated manner, meaning it can rise faster but also fall more sharply. Recently, silver experienced a significant correction, influenced by a dip in demand from China over the summer. However, this situation is stabilizing.

As we move into the final quarter of the year and approach the US presidential election, there is potential for silver to outperform gold. This is partly because the dollar is expected to remain weak, supporting gold prices, and silver, currently priced just above $30, is still far below its 2011 record of $50. Investors looking to enter the market for investment metals might find silver more appealing due to its lower price relative to its historical highs.

In summary, 2024 has been a remarkable year for precious metals, with continuous record highs in gold and significant gains in silver, making it a notable period for investors in this sector.

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Macro Highlighted articles Commodities En hurtig tanke

Gold vs. Silver: Which metal will perform best?

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 11:45:00 Z

In summary, 2024 has been a remarkable year for precious metals, with continuous record highs in gold and significant gains in silver, making it a notable period for investors in this sector.

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Highlighted articles

Tech and AI: struggles, opportunities, and expert insights with Philip Jagd

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 09:55:00 Z

In this episode, we dive into the upcoming FOMC meeting and what it could mean for financial markets. We also get exclusive insights from Philip Jagd, Head of Equities at Sampension, who shares key takeaways from his recent excursion to meet with US tech companies, including the magnificent seven members Nvidia and Meta. We’ll unpack the challenges tech and AI companies face in living up to their high valuations, and explore future opportunities amidst the turbulence. Hosted by Søren Otto, with our Chief Investment Strategist, Peter Garnry, joining for his market analysis.

Listen to the full episode now or follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:

If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo

Topics: Podcast Macro Equities Highlighted articles

US Election: The three possible scenarios and their impact on markets

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 10:27:00 Z

Prior to the first debate, Donald Trump was gaining momentum, but post-debate, prediction markets have shifted in favor of Kamala Harris. While we await the latest US population polls, Harris is now seen as a strong candidate.

These are the three potential election scenarios:

Harris Gridlock: In this scenario, Harris wins the presidency, but Democrats don't secure both houses of Congress. This could lead to fiscal headwinds and a potential recession, favoring defensive sectors like utilities, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Trump Sweep: Here, Trump wins the presidency and Republicans take both houses. This scenario could benefit European defense companies, US small-cap industrials, energy companies, and banks, while emerging markets might suffer due to increased tariffs.
Harris Sweep: In this scenario, Harris wins the presidency and Democrats secure both houses. This could extend Biden's fiscal programs, benefiting semiconductors, infrastructure, industrial companies, and green energy. Emerging markets might perform better due to fewer political headwinds.

You can find our best guess on which sectors and companies that will gain from the different scenarios in our US election shortlists in SaxoTraderGo by heading to Research->Themes->US election: Shortslists for a Trump or Harris victory

I encourage investors to explore Saxo's US Election Hub for detailed analysis and investment inspiration ahead of the election.

Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: US Election 2024 Highlighted articles US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed Equities

Podcast: Harris wins debate, but FOMC trumps politics for now

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 08:00:00 Z

In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Saxo Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy dissect the market implications of the recent US presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Below are some of the key takeaways from their conversation, focusing on the debate’s influence on market sentiment, polling, and potential policy shifts.

A shift in betting markets

John Hardy began by noting how betting markets reacted to the debate, with a solid shift in favour of Kamala Harris, bringing the perceived outcome back to complete balance after the odds had recently shifted in Trump’s favour. According to Hardy, Trump initially came across as "stronger and more coherent than expected," but as the debate progressed, Harris "found her stride," sharpening her critiques of Trump.

“Harris sharpened her criticisms of Trump, while he seemed to rely on more repetitive talking points like ‘you’re destroying the nation,’ which resonate with his base but don’t seem to make a significant impact on undecided voters,” Hardy explained.

Impact on undecided voters

Søren Otto raised the point that the debate’s real impact was likely limited to a small group of undecided voters. Hardy agreed, stressing that the majority of voters have already made up their minds.

“This is really about a small group that could swing one way or another,” he said, pointing out that the debate’s influence would be felt mainly among that narrow segment of the electorate.

Harris’s debate performance: better than expected?

Søren asked whether Harris’ performance exceeded expectations, a sentiment reflected by viewers on social media. While Hardy acknowledged that she did well, he suggested that her delivery appeared more polished than in previous public appearances.

“Harris came across as confident and clear, though at times a little rehearsed,” Hardy remarked, adding that this was still an improvement over some of her earlier, less focused performances.

Celebrity endorsements: Taylor Swift's influence

One of the more bigger twists came with Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris immediately after the debate. Hardy emphasised the significance of Swift’s cultural influence, particularly among younger voters.

“Taylor Swift is more than just a pop star. She’s incredibly influential, especially among young voters, many of whom are women,” Hardy remarked. Swift’s endorsement could mobilise a key voting bloc that historically leans Democrat, making her role in this election potentially decisive.

Market reactions: currency movements and the Fed’s role

As the conversation shifted to the markets, Hardy noted that the debate itself did not trigger significant market movements. However, some hawkish statements from a Bank of Japan member during the same period caused notable reactions, particularly in currency markets.

“The Japanese yen saw a strong rally after the BoJ comments, which overshadowed any immediate reaction to the debate,” Hardy said.

He explained that while market participants are keeping an eye on the election, other factors such as today’s US inflation release and Federal Reserve policy are currently more pressing concerns. For example, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released shortly after the debate, would likely have a greater impact on the markets than the political event itself.

FOMC meeting: a key market driver

While the presidential debate did not have much direct market impact, Hardy believes that the FOMC’s decision on interest rates next Wednesday, 18 September, is critical for equities, bonds, and currencies in the near term.

According to Hardy, the decision to cut the policy rate by either 25 or 50 basis points in next week’s FOMC meeting will be far more important for markets than the US election for now. Today’s CPI figure may have an impact on whether the Fed swings one way or the other.

Sectoral implications: Trump vs Harris

Hardy also discussed the potential impact of either candidate winning the presidency on specific market sectors. A Trump victory could benefit European defence stocks and fossil fuels, while Harris’s focus on clean energy and social spending might boost renewable energy sectors. However, he cautioned that “gridlock in Congress is a likely outcome in a Harris victory scenario,” meaning not much will get done from her agenda.

Conclusion: market focus on immediate concerns

Looking ahead, Hardy believes that while the election will become a larger market focus as November approaches, immediate concerns like inflation and the Federal Reserve's decisions will continue to dominate.

“For now, I think the market is primarily focused on more immediate concerns like inflation and the Fed,” he concluded.

The episode ended with a reminder to keep watching both the odds and economic data as Election Day nears, as these will provide critical clues to both political and market outcomes.

Listen to the full episode or subscribe to the podcast here.

Saxo

Topics: US Election 2024 US Election Macro US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed

Podcast: Why Nvidia earnings are so important

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 10:00:00 Z

Here’s some highlights from the episode.

Nvidia’s Earnings: High Expectations

As Nvidia prepares to announce its earnings, the market is paying close attention. Expectations are high, with options markets reflecting significant volatility. Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Chief Investment Strategist, anticipates that Nvidia will likely exceed consensus estimates for the quarter but also notes potential risks. A revenue miss, given Nvidia’s high valuation, could lead to market fluctuations.

Any delays in Nvidia’s anticipated Blackwell chip could also impact the market. The Blackwell chip, expected to be significantly more efficient than its predecessor, is seen as a potential game-changer in AI applications. If Nvidia can meet these expectations, it could further solidify its role in the AI sector. However, any setbacks might lead to increased volatility.

Jackson Hole and the U.S. Election: Market Implications

Last week wasn’t about Nvidia as the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium drew attention. While there were no major surprises, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of reducing interest rates, leading to speculation about the Fed’s future actions, especially with the U.S. election approaching. John Hardy, Saxo’s Chief Macro Strategist, mentioned that the intersection of the Fed’s rate cycle and the U.S. election could have significant implications for the market.

The U.S. Election: Market Considerations

While Nvidia and the Fed are currently in focus, Garnry believes the upcoming U.S. election is a crucial factor that may be underestimated by the market. He suggests that a decisive win by either Harris or Trump could have implications for inflation, as both candidates might prioritise short-term political gains over long-term economic stability.

Garnry points out that a Harris victory with a split Congress could potentially help in reducing inflation by limiting extensive policy changes. However, the Senate race, particularly in states like Montana, could play a key role in shaping the next administration's policy direction.

Looking Ahead

As 2025 approaches, the intersection of fiscal policy and the U.S. election will be a critical period for the markets. With Nvidia’s earnings and the U.S. election both on the horizon, the coming months could be pivotal for investors. The outcomes of these events are likely to influence market performance and economic policy in the years to come.

Saxo Group

Topics: Thought Starters

Podcast: Summer events and US election’s impact on financial markets

Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:00:00 Z

Listen to Saxo Market Call on summer events and the US election’s impact on markets, including key reactions and sector outlooks.

In this episode of the Saxo Market Call, John Hardy and Peter Garnry reflect on this summer's events that impacted the financial markets together with host, Søren Otto. Obviously, the US election with all its craze featured prominently.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically, particularly with Kamala Harris replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, alongside the assassination attempt on former President Trump. These events have had consequences, not just in politics but also in the markets.

Key market reactions

One of the notable market movements following these events was a brief surge in US small-cap stocks. This rally seemed to be driven by the perception that the Republicans, personified by former President Donald Trump, would likely win the election, which historically has led to policies favouring domestic industries and tariffs, boosting smaller companies that primarily operate within the US.

However, this may not have been solely related to election sentiment. The market environment during this period was complex, with several factors at play. For instance, algorithmic trading strategies and hedge fund activities might have contributed to the rally. There was speculation that some of these moves were driven by algorithmic trading systems quickly reacting to news headlines, pushing a large volume of futures contracts in the market, which temporarily inflated small-cap stocks.

This rally was short-lived, as broader market sentiment was impacted by a combination of these factors, along with economic data, global events, and technical market forces. While the initial reaction was significant, it quickly subsided, indicating that investors are still navigating through a complex landscape influenced by both political uncertainty and economic realities.

Sectors to watch

The political shifts have also led to speculation about which sectors could benefit or suffer depending on the election outcome:

Under a Harris administration:

Clean energy: Likely to see continued support and growth, with a strong focus on environmental policies.

Infrastructure: This sector could also perform well, although it may not be as heavily favoured as under a Trump administration.

Financials: Could face more regulation, which might dampen the sector’s performance.

Semiconductors: Likely to continue benefiting from bipartisan support for technological advancement and security.

Under a Trump administration:

US real estate: Could see benefits from Trump’s policies aimed at keeping interest rates low and his deep personal ties with the real estate industry.

Small-cap stocks: Likely to benefit from a pro-tariff, domestic-first approach.

Financials: Would likely thrive under deregulation, which is a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy.

European defence: Could see gains due to Trump’s stance on NATO.

Potential risks

While the market has shown resilience, particularly with retail investors stepping in during dips, there are significant risks on the horizon. The primary concern remains whether the US is heading into a recession. If a recession does occur, especially with a portfolio concentrated heavily in technology stocks, investors could face severe losses. Diversification will be key to mitigating these risks.

Another major risk is geopolitical instability. With increasing tensions in various parts of the world, particularly in the Middle East, the impact on global markets could be severe and unpredictable. Investors should consider adding exposure to sectors like defence, which might offer some protection against geopolitical shocks.

Looking forward

As we approach the US election, the markets will likely remain volatile, with investors closely watching both the political developments and economic indicators. The presidential debates and upcoming economic data releases will be crucial in shaping market sentiment. Investors should prepare for a bumpy ride, with a focus on diversification and a clear understanding of the risks associated with different political outcomes.

To catch the full discussion and gain deeper insights into the summer's market movements, listen to the complete podcast at the top of the page.

Saxo Group

Topics: US Election 2024 Highlighted articles US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed

What the two most likely scenarios mean for your portfolio

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 11:12:00 Z

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is rapidly approaching, and recent events have dramatically shifted the political landscape. With Presiden Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and the entrance of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz, new dynamics are coming into play. These developments are leading investors to reassess their strategies, particularly in light of potential election impacts on investing and financial markets.

In the video above, Saxo’s strategy team shares insights on how the current movements in the US election are impacting the financial markets.

Election scenarios impacting investing strategies

As we approach the election, two main scenarios are emerging, each with distinct implications for investing strategy:

Trump's narrow victory:

If Trump narrowly wins, he is likely to secure control of Congress, giving him substantial influence over policy. This scenario could result in significant changes, particularly in areas like deregulation, which could benefit sectors such as small-cap stocks and real estate.

Harris wins with gridlock:

If Harris wins but faces a Republican-controlled Senate, legislative gridlock is likely. This could make it challenging to extend fiscal stimulus programs, increasing the risk of a recession. However, sectors like renewable energy and technology might benefit under her leadership, offering different opportunities for investors.

Strategic considerations for investors

The potential election impact on investing extends beyond U.S. borders. For example, a Trump victory could strengthen European defence stocks, given his stance on NATO and the Ukraine conflict. This shift could create new opportunities in international markets.

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. election will likely have a impact on financial markets, influencing sectors ranging from small-cap stocks to renewable energy. Therefore, as Election Day approaches, investors should stay informed about election developments related to financial markets and adjust their investment strategy accordingly.

Follow Saxo’s coverage of the US Election to stay informed on how the election can impact your investment strategy.

Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: US Election 2024 Highlighted articles US Election 2024 US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed

Biden is out, but what will be the difference?

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:34:00 Z

As Biden exits the U.S. presidential race, markets are buzzing with speculation about the future. The potential shift in power has investors reassessing the much-debated Trump Trade and pondering the implications of a Democratic versus Republican victory.

What is the Trump Trade and why is it being questioned?

The Trump Trade suggests that certain sectors of the U.S. economy, such as banking, industrials, and energy, would benefit from deregulation and tax cuts. Bitcoin is favoured, while fixed income, especially U.S. Treasuries, appears less attractive due to expected fiscal spending and the resulting upward pressure on bond yields.

With Biden withdrawing, and Democrats possibly having a higher probability of winning, the market is evaluating a scenario without the Trump Trade. Although fiscal spending is expected to remain high, benefiting lower and middle classes, the impact on U.S. Treasuries could still be bearish due to increased yields.

How is the bond market reacting to the US election?

The potential for significant fiscal spending under either administration is putting pressure on bond yields. This fundamentally means that regardless of which political party wins, there will likely be a lot of government spending.

A Republican victory, continuing the Trump Trade, implies increased fiscal stimulus, pushing bond yields higher and reducing fixed income attractiveness. Conversely, a Democratic win might also maintain high spending levels but could focus on different fiscal priorities, still pressuring bond yields upward. When yields increase, new bonds offer better returns than existing ones, making the older bonds less valuable. As a result, investors might be concerned about holding bonds, anticipating lower prices and potential losses on their current bond investments.

Which stock market sectors will be impacted by either a Democrat or Republican president?

As discussed in previous notes, Democrats in the White House could bolster sectors such as healthcare, technology, and renewable energy, maintaining their recent gains. Republicans would favour banking, industrials, and energy sectors, driven by deregulation and fiscal policies conducive to these industries.

What to expect from financial markets till Election Day?

As the election approaches, market volatility is expected, influenced by news regarding the presidential campaigns. However, hard data will ultimately drive asset performance. The U.S. economy's deceleration, rising unemployment, and stable inflation nearing 2% suggest the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, potentially boosting bonds and overall stock markets.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election introduces significant uncertainty into the markets. While a Trump Trade scenario favours certain sectors and assets, a Democratic win could continue the momentum in others. Investors should brace for volatility and focus on economic indicators to navigate this period.

Althea Spinozzi

Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: US Election 2024 Highlighted articles US Election 2024 US Election US Election 2024 - Investor - TagFeed

Cramer's Corner: Daily Technical Update with Tesla and Cocoa

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 06:16:01 Z

Cramer’s Corner: Daily Technical Update

Kim Cramer Larsson hosts the Daily Technical Update, a daily 8-10 minute video with live charts.
Kim takes you through the latest technical developments in financial markets, covering everything from the major stock indices, widely traded single stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates

In today’s Technical Update:

Tesla under pressure. Key support at 160.50
S&P 500 top and reversal below rising trendline
Nasdaq 100. Top and reversal pattern intact. Support at 17,808
EuroStoxx50 top and reversal pattern support at 4,976
DAX top and reversal pattern. Sell-off to 17,900?
AEX25 top and reversal pattern. Support at 872
CAC40. Rejected at peak. Likely correction unfolding
SMI20 uptrend. Could be range bound 11,536-11,800
Time 4.18
EURUSD likely to drop to 1.07 possibly 1.0660, Minor support at 1.0723
GBPUSD likely to test support at 1.25
USDJPY range bound 150.85-151.95
EURJPY correction to 0.618 retracement at 162.17
AUDJPY correction over? Key support 98.20
AUDUSD testing key support at 0.6450, could drop to 0.64
EURCHF top and reversal could sell off to 0.9622
USDCHF could test resist at 0.91, expect minor correction
Dollar Index resist at 104.88
Time 9.10
Gold reached 2.00 at 2,288, correction ?
Silver above 26.00 short-term 26.75 likely
Cocoa key support 9,267
WTI Crude uptrend minor resist at 84.30 potential to 87
Brent above resist at 87.35 potential to 90.50
US 10-year T-yields above 4.35, next resist at 4.50

Follow me for more on SaxoTrader platforms, home.saxo and X (Twitter): Cramers_Corner

Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank

Topics: Technical analysis Cramers Corner

What is driving cocoa's sweet price?

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 11:40:00 Z

Cocoa is experiencing a sweet surge - not in flavour, but in its market value. Discover the factors driving up cocoa prices by exploring the complexities of supply shortages, rising production costs, and how these elements intertwine to shape the current cocoa conundrum.

Understanding the surge in cocoa prices

In the realm of food commodities, witnessing a sharp increase in prices is a rare event. Yet, this is precisely what's unfolding in the cocoa market. Over the past year, NY cocoa prices have soared by more than 200%, including a notable surge of 97% just in this year. The London based cocoa future has rallied even stronger, with the May 2024 futures contract up 105% YTD.

This significant uptick can be traced back to a combination of factors, especially in West Africa. Here, the Ivory Coast and Ghana are recognised as the leading global producers of cocoa beans. The past year has introduced challenging weather conditions in these countries, particularly intense heat, which has negatively impacted cocoa production.

Furthermore, the escalating costs of pesticides and fertilisers have imposed financial strains on farmers, making it harder for them to procure these vital components for crop maintenance. Complicating matters are the pests that have targeted cocoa plants, further diminishing yields.

Impact of surging cocoa prices on traders and investors

The prevailing circumstances pose an interesting scenario for traders and investors alike. With cocoa production witnessing a downturn—evidenced by a 40% decrease in arrivals at Ivory Coast ports compared to the previous season—the supply chain has felt the pinch. This reduction in supply occurs as a significant portion of the cocoa is pre-sold to companies and manufacturers of cocoa and chocolate products. Faced with the challenge of fulfilling these commitments, these entities are compelled to look for alternative sources. This scramble for cocoa has led to a squeeze in the futures market for cocoa prices.

Consumer impact of rising cocoa prices

From the consumer's standpoint, the immediate effects of the spike in cocoa prices might not be directly noticeable. Typically, it can take anywhere from 6 to 12 months for such price hikes to be reflected in the retail pricing of products. Nevertheless, in the forthcoming period, consumers should brace for an uptick in chocolate bar prices.

Additionally, the trend of shrinkflation is likely to become more pronounced. This practice involves reducing the size of chocolate bars or the quantity of chocolates in a package while keeping prices constant. Consequently, while there might not be a stark rise in the price tags of chocolate items, the quantity offered for the same price will see a reduction.

Edit note: Performance data for cocoa updated March 19, 2024.

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Cocoa Highlighted articles

Crude tumble drives worst week since March

Mon, 13 Nov 2023 14:39:00 Z

Commodities have had the worst week in terms of performance since March, led by the Energy sector following a very volatile period for crude oil. In this video, Saxo's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, looks at the current price drivers of oil, gold, industrial metals, grains and soft commodities.

You can find more detail in the latest commodity weekly, Crude oil risks overshooting the downside

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Gold Wheat Cocoa Crude Oil Commodities Energy (Sector) Brent OPEC Silver

Israel-Gaza Conflict: What it means for financial markets

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 13:30:00 Z

Saxo's Chief Investment Officer, Steen Jakobsen and John Hardy discuss the Gaza attack and what it might mean for the markets.

Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Energy (Sector) Israel Gold Equities Bonds Crude Oil Inflation Commodities Highlighted articles

Finance Philosophy: If You're not Sure, Do Half

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 06:00:00 Z

The financial world is teeming with maxims about what to do as an investor. Some of them may offer minor guidance, while some of them sound better than they really are. What's common for all is that they cannot stand alone, and doing your own research is always necessary.

In our series, Finance Philosophy, Investment Coach Peter Siks takes you through 10 of the most famous financial sayings, what they mean, and whether they can help guide you on your investment journey.

We will publish one video every week.

This episode is about the saying "If You’re not Sure, Do Half". Watch it above.

Watch the previous episode about "There’s a Time to go Long, There’s a Time to go Short, and There’s a Time to go Fishing".

Saxo

Topics: Saxo Stories