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Market wrap and a big US mid-term preview.

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:15:00 Z

The short and the very long of it for the US mid-term elections.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

The slide deck for the US mid-terms.

Specific US mid-term elections where the issue of data centers is in play.

The SCMP on US tipping culture gone out of control - also whether it is a part of the creeping cost of living problem in the US and whether it is getting picked up in official measures of inflation. I have noticed this on travels back to the US in recent years - very annoying. Shouldn't businesses pay their workers a living wage rather than harassing customers?
Thoughtful Saxo Market Call podcast listener Mat Casey sent in his own vibe check of the American voter, especially on the issue of AI in his travels across America.
Michael McNair ponders whether the Binance hack could have been due to an employee compromised by blackmail linked to AI hacking tools. In other words, nasty operators can gain access to the corporate and other systems by hacking individuals' lives to use their online activity to blackmail them into surrendering their credentials.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Up on average, down by weight - Options Brief - 30 October 2026

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z

Most stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 still fell, dragged down by its largest names. After the close Amazon and Intel added to the damage. One option gauge now points the other way.

Most stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 still fell, because the losses sat in its largest names, and after the close Amazon and Intel added to them.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.20 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.03) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.210

Today in brief

Thursday split the market by weight. The S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7,720.39 while its equal-weighted version rose 1.21%, because the losses sat in a handful of the largest names. Alphabet fell 12.64% on its results, and after the close Amazon fell about 7% and Intel about 23%. Options indicatively price 0.64% for today’s expiry, about 1.9 points below what time decay alone would have left from Wednesday’s reading, so in our view the option market took a little premium out of the week after Alphabet’s gap rather than adding to it.

Alphabet shows what the options were pricing. It was priced for 5.5% and moved 12.6%, the largest multiple of the season on our scorecard, and its implied-volatility rank then fell 43.2 points, in our view because the event was over. Amazon went into its own report priced for 7.7%, and its late-trade fall of about 7% was close to that, before today’s session.

The reading that cuts the other way is correlation. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, rose 7.24% to 13.78, the 96th percentile of our store, while dispersion, which prices how far index members are expected to move apart, fell back to its median. In our view the market may now price the next surprise to travel across the index more than it did on Thursday.

The headline volatility gauge rose to 17.20. The index has used 71% of the range priced for this week, down from 88% a session earlier, with one session left. Single-name volatility drained further, yesterday’s single-name flow carried no readable direction, and Treasuries rallied despite third-quarter growth of 3.4%.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

Most of the index rose on Thursday and the index still fell. The S&P 500 lost 0.30% to 7,720.39 while its equal-weighted version gained 1.21% and small caps 0.97%. The difference was a handful of the largest names.

Alphabet fell 12.64% on results showing negative free cash flow of 9.1 billion dollars, and Amazon slid 4.25% into its own report. After the close Amazon fell about 7% on elevated spending and negative free cash flow, and Intel about 23% on a weak outlook.

The data ran the other way. Third-quarter growth came in at an annualised 3.4%, the fastest in a year, and September’s personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.6% on the year, yet Treasuries rallied along the curve as tech sold off. The European Central Bank held rates, and this morning the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% while raising its inflation forecasts.

Market snapshot

US (Thursday 29 October close): S&P 500 7,720.39, down 0.30%. Nasdaq 100 29,402.51, down 1.38%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,348.24, down 0.25%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.21%, health care 2.40%, while software fell 3.52% and Caterpillar nearly 10%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.77% to 649.12, the DAX 1.31% to 26,039.68 and the CAC 40 1.05%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.3%. Haleon fell as much as 15% after cutting its growth outlook.
Asia (Friday morning): the Kospi fell 4.64% to 5,662.14 by 05:00 CET while the Hang Seng rose 1.64%. Tech names took the brunt of the Intel and Amazon results.
Commodities and rates: WTI traded at 103.21. Gold eased to 4,003.40 and silver to 51.35. The two-year Treasury yield fell ten basis points on Thursday to 4.60% and a further two overnight, and the ten-year trades at 4.92%, while high-yield spreads widened 10 basis points to 323. Bitcoin traded near 77,700.
Overnight (05:00 CET Friday): Nasdaq 100 futures 28,957.25, down 2.05%, and S&P 500 futures 7,679.25, down 0.97%.
Market regime: transitioning, the VIX at 17.20, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 151.03.

Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 30 October 2026, which carries Thursday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure. Illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The equity measures rose and the cross-asset ones eased. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, gained 7.24% to 13.78, the 96th percentile of the 107 sessions in our store. The Nasdaq gauge rose 5.89% to 25.18. Dispersion, which prices how far index members are expected to move apart, fell 4.31% to 36.63, back to its median. In our view that pairing may be the day in one line: the spread between names that options had paid for arrived in Alphabet, and the premium for it came out once it had.

The headline gauge added 1.71% to 17.20, the 77th percentile, and the front day 3.57% to 13.62. The bond gauge eased 1.06% to 93.55, and gold volatility at 22.73 sits at the 11th percentile.

Ratios. VIX3M/VIX holds at 1.13, so the curve stays in contango. VXN/VIX rose to 1.46 from 1.41, and VIX1D/VIX to 0.79.

VIX futures. November reads 19.21 in overnight trade, above December at 19.01, which on that quote inverts the front of the futures curve. Put-call parity on the 18 November options, read later in the night, returns 18.66, below December. These are two timestamps, not a roll, so we draw no session comparison.

Tails. SKEW rose 1.54% to 151.03, above its 145.70 median.

Single-name volatility

The index measures above rose, but the names drained further. On a common set of 523 underlyings the median implied-volatility rank fell to 39.3 from 44.0 and the mean to 41.4 from 47.0, with the median percentile at 49.2. The comparison spans two sessions, because no reading was collected on the morning of 29 October.

Alphabet lost 43.2 points of rank to 24.4 and Microsoft 25.0 to 23.9. Both reported on Wednesday evening. One share price fell 12.64% and the other 0.16%, yet the ranks fell almost together. In our view what the options had been pricing was the event, and the event was over.

Amazon went the other way, up 5.8 points to 79.2, the 98th percentile of its year. That reading was taken at Thursday’s close, before its results.

At the index end the broad market fund sits at a rank of 13.2 and the small-cap fund at 11.6, against 40.7 for the Nasdaq 100 fund. By group, energy is richest at a median of 59.0 and metals cheapest at 17.7.

Implied-volatility rank and percentile from the Saxo screener, read at 02:23 CET on 30 October 2026. Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day Thursday 29 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow carried no readable direction. Alphabet dominated, as a structure in which buying and selling offset, which in our view may reflect an existing book being moved rather than a fresh view.
Sector and ETF flow was readable in one place only, demand for long-dated Treasury exposure. Nine of the ten categories showed no direction.

Where the week's range sits

The range priced for the week around Friday 23 October’s close for six markets, with the nearest listed strike at each bound and where Thursday’s close sits inside it. Illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The Friday-close snapshot priced 137.05 points for the S&P 500 this week, 1.80% around Friday’s 7,623.68, a band from 7,486.63 to 7,760.73. Four sessions of five are done. Thursday’s close at 7,720.39 has used 71% of that band upward, down from 88% a session earlier, and the parity forward on today’s expiry, 7,683.80, would put it nearer 44%.

The Nasdaq 100 fund has given back more, 51% used from 98%. Gold has used 22% upward, energy 26% downward and the bitcoin fund 15% downward. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month rather than a week, and sits 48% below its anchor.

One session remains, and the top of the band sits 40 points above Thursday’s close. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

Today's catalysts

10:00 CET German third-quarter growth, then at 11:00 CET euro-zone third-quarter growth and Italian October inflation.
13:30 CET Canadian growth, and at 14:00 CET German October inflation.
14:45 CET the Chicago purchasing managers’ index.
Earnings today: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, BP, General Dynamics, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia.
Next week: Apple and Palantir on Monday, AMD on Tuesday, Novo Nordisk on Wednesday, the 3 November vote and payrolls.

The US stays on summer time until Sunday, so today’s cash session runs 14:30 to 21:00 CET and today’s expiry settles at that close. Today is also the last session of October.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Nineteen of the twenty-one names have reported, and Wednesday evening produced both ends of the table. Alphabet was priced for 5.5% and moved 12.6%, 2.3x what the options expected and the largest multiple of the season. Microsoft was priced for 4.7% and moved 0.2%.

Amazon was priced for 7.7% against an eight-report average of 6.2%. It was down about 7% in late trade after its results, close to the priced move; its scorecard figure lands after today’s session.

Two names remain. Apple reports on Monday priced for 3.5% against 2.5%, 1.4x its own history and the richest on the board, on a rank of 56, so in our view its volatility is ordinary for its year while its event premium is not. Novo Nordisk reports on Wednesday at 6.1% against 5.0%, up 0.3 points overnight.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: S&P 500 options price 49.10 points, 0.64%, for today’s expiry, which settles at the 21:00 CET close. Read before the US open, so indicative. The one-day gauge at 13.62 implies about 0.86%, a one-sigma figure rather than an expected move, so in our view the two do not disagree.
Event repricing: on Wednesday the same expiry priced 88.30 points with three sessions to run, and decay alone would have left about 51.0. Today’s 49.10 sits about 1.9 points below that, so the option market took a little premium out of the week after Alphabet’s gap rather than adding to it.
Next week: the same-morning Quick Take puts about 1.64% on the 6 November expiry, a window holding Apple, the 3 November vote and payrolls. The parity forward on today’s expiry, 7,683.80, already sits about 0.47% below Thursday’s close, which in our view may mean much of the late-trade reaction to Amazon and Intel is in the index before the open.
Correlation read: implied correlation rose 7.24% to 13.78, the 96th percentile of our store, while dispersion fell back to its median. In our view the market may now price the next surprise to travel across the index more than it did on Thursday, when the equal-weighted index rose 1.21% against the headline’s fall.

In our view today tests whether Thursday’s split survives a second day: an equal-weighted market that rose while the largest names fell, and an option market that, on the correlation gauge, now leans the other way. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Up a fifth still the cheapest session - Options Brief - 28 October 2026 Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Now Amazon and Intel spook US tech - 30 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Alphabet revenue miss spooks markets - 29 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Amazon earnings: why strong growth was not enough

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cloud growth accelerates: Amazon Web Services is booming, but high expectations make even strong results insufficient.
Spending raises questions: AI investments are consuming cash, leaving investors waiting for clearer financial returns.
Retail sends mixed signals: slower online sales and advertising growth add uncertainty, despite improving profitability.

Amazon has spent years building a business that delivers almost everything. Now investors are asking when its enormous investments will start delivering more cash.

On 29 October 2026, the company reported strong third-quarter cloud growth and record operating margins. Yet its shares fell around 7% in after-hours trading as spending exceeded expectations and its core retail business slowed.

The message was clear: growing quickly is no longer enough when the bill for future growth keeps getting bigger.

The cloud is growing, but so is the bill

Amazon Web Services (AWS), which rents computing power and data storage to businesses, remains Amazon's biggest profit engine.

Revenue jumped 39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Demand for artificial intelligence is a major driver, with customers including Anthropic and OpenAI requiring enormous computing capacity.

Yet investors were not celebrating.

Amazon expects to spend around 220 billion USD on infrastructure and equipment this year, with spending rising further in 2027.

That creates an important distinction between profits and cash.

Amazon's operating profits are improving, but free cash flow, the money left after running and investing in the business, has turned negative. Over the past year, Amazon spent roughly 42 billion USD more than it generated after investment costs.

This does not necessarily signal a weak business. New data centres can generate revenue for years. But their construction requires substantial cash today, while future returns remain uncertain.

For investors, the question is shifting from how fast AI grows to how profitably it grows.

Retail offers a second reality check

Amazon is more than a cloud provider. Its enormous online marketplace remains central to the business.

Online store sales increased just 2%, while advertising growth also slowed. Amazon partly attributes the weakness to moving its Prime Day shopping event into the previous quarter.

That makes comparisons less straightforward, but does not eliminate concerns about consumer spending.

There is encouraging news beneath the surface. Faster deliveries, greater efficiency and improving retail margins suggest Amazon continues to benefit from its enormous scale.

This matters because profitable retail operations help support investment elsewhere.

The broader industry faces a similar challenge. Microsoft and Alphabet are expanding cloud infrastructure, while chipmakers, memory suppliers and electricity providers benefit from the construction boom.

But higher spending by technology giants does not automatically mean higher returns for their shareholders. Suppliers receive orders today. Infrastructure owners must earn back their investments over time.

Risks: when growth becomes expensive

Three risks deserve attention.

First, AI demand could disappoint relative to the capacity being built. Second, rising equipment and energy costs could squeeze profitability. Third, weaker consumer spending could reduce the financial flexibility provided by retail.

The warning signs are slowing cloud growth, persistently negative free cash flow and weaker retail margins.

For investors, the useful exercise is tracking whether cloud profits and cash generation eventually catch up with investment spending, rather than reacting to one quarter's share-price movement.

The real test is still ahead

Amazon's results capture a wider shift in the technology industry. For years, investors rewarded companies for expanding quickly and capturing new markets. Today, they increasingly want evidence that expansion creates lasting financial value.

Amazon has reasons for confidence. Its cloud business is accelerating, retail profitability is improving, and demand for computing infrastructure remains strong. But the scale of its investments leaves less room for disappointment.

The coming quarters will reveal whether today's spending translates into stronger earnings and, eventually, healthier cash flow.

Amazon has become exceptionally good at delivering packages to customers. Its next challenge is proving it can deliver equally impressive returns on the capital it invests.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

Commodity weekly: October underscores a year of dramatic sector rotation

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 07:50:00 Z

Key Points:

October masks another major sector rotation: The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a nearly unchanged month, with strong energy gains offsetting losses across grains and precious metals.
Energy dominates amid geopolitical tensions: Middle East supply disruptions and tight refined product markets have supported crude oil and diesel, while European natural gas has surged by 38%.
Metals and grains face mounting pressure: Rising bond yields, growth concerns and speculative long liquidation have weighed on precious metals, while harvest pressure and position unwinding have hit grains.
Dramatic annual reversals highlight diversification benefits: Energy has surged almost 100% this year after losing 10% in 2025, while precious metals have fallen 11% following last year's 80% rally, underscoring the value of broad commodity exposure.

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return (BCOM TR) Index, which tracks a diversified basket of 25 major commodity futures across energy, metals and agriculture, is heading for a nearly unchanged October. Beneath the subdued headline performance, however, the month has been characterised by a significant rotation between sectors, with strong gains in energy and, to a lesser extent, soft commodities offsetting losses across grains and precious metals, while industrial metals have recorded a small decline.

Energy has once again been the clear outperformer, supported by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent supply disruptions and elevated risk premiums across crude oil and refined products. Brent and WTI crude have led the gains, alongside US diesel, where tight inventories, constrained export availability and deferred refinery maintenance have compounded supply concerns. European natural gas has surged by around 38%, reflecting heightened supply-security concerns and the region's continued vulnerability to disruptions in global LNG flows. Importantly, European natural gas is not included in the BCOM index.

Commodities October returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Elsewhere, agriculture has delivered a mixed performance, with sugar among the strongest gainers, while grains have suffered renewed selling pressure as the speculative long positions built up during August continue to unwind. Wheat and corn have been weighed down by harvest-related supply pressure, shifting trade expectations and the liquidation of previously elevated speculative positions. Sugar, meanwhile, has benefited from weather-related supply concerns and strong speculative interest, although the recent sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real has weighed on several major Brazilian agricultural exports, including sugar, soybeans, coffee and cotton. A weaker real improves the competitiveness of Brazilian produce in international markets, adding downward pressure to US dollar-denominated prices.

Precious metals have experienced an ongoing sharp reversal, with silver and platinum among October's biggest losers, while gold has also weakened. The sector has faced pressure from spikes in bond yields and shifting interest-rate expectations, which have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. At the same time, concerns about global growth and the sustainability of AI-related investment have weighed disproportionately on silver and platinum, given their industrial demand exposure. Elevated speculative positioning following earlier rallies has amplified the correction, with technical breaks triggering additional long liquidation and momentum-driven selling.

Industrial metals, meanwhile, have held up relatively well despite concerns about slowing economic growth, softer Chinese demand and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Copper has been particularly influenced by rising exchange-monitored inventories and speculation over potential US tariffs on refined imports, while longer-term demand expectations linked to electrification and infrastructure investment continue to provide some underlying support.

The scale of this year's rotation is even more striking when viewed against last year's performance. Precious metals, which topped the commodity rankings in 2025 with gains of around 80%, have become this year's laggard, currently down approximately 11%. Conversely, energy, which lost around 10% last year, has surged by almost 100% year-to-date, driven primarily by war-related supply disruptions and sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.

Global gas prices and EU stockpiles - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

These dramatic reversals highlight both the opportunities and risks associated with commodity investing. Individual commodity markets are driven by very different combinations of supply constraints, weather, geopolitics, inventory developments and investor positioning. In my opinion, this strengthens the case for broad commodity exposure rather than relying on a narrow selection of markets, as diversification can help smooth the impact of sharp sector-specific reversals, even though it cannot eliminate the risk of losses across the asset class.

The broader lesson from 2026 is that commodity performance is rarely uniform. War has reshaped energy markets, weather and harvest cycles have influenced agriculture, while inflation, bond yields, growth expectations and speculative positioning have driven sharp adjustments in metals. With these forces likely to remain influential, sector rotation may continue to be as important as the overall direction of the commodity market.

Related articles/content
22 Oct 2026: Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks 19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026 16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets 15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks 14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness 12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

22 Oct 2026: Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks
19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026
16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets
15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks
14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness
12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Copper Mining Gold Silver Theme - Precious metals Energy (Sector) Soybean Natural Gas Gas Oil Gasoline

Market Quick Take - Now Amazon and Intel spook US tech - 30 October 2026

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 07:30:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Bank of Japan raises inflation forecasts, says 2% inflation target reached
Equities: Alphabet's record drop hit US stocks Thursday and AI-earnings worries have spread to Asia, while Europe held up better.
Volatility: Front VIX futures held above spot overnight while Nasdaq futures fell after the results
Digital Assets: Crypto equities fell with tech while Binance confirmed a major hack and froze funds
Commodities: Oil holds firm, silver slides as commodities see major sector rotation in October
Fixed Income: Yields drop on tech stock sell-off and despite strong US growth data
Currencies: JPY choppy after Bank of Japan meeting. USD drops.

Macro

The ECB kept rates unchanged in October 2026, warning high energy prices could fuel inflation and hurt growth, while underlying inflation is stable and second round effects are not a concern. The move followed reports President Lagarde plans to step down early; she said a hike was discussed but unanimously rejected.
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% as widely expected and raised its core inflation forecasts for fiscal 2027 by 0.2% to 2.6% from 2.4% and now says that it considers underlying inflation to have risen to be broadly consistent with its 2% target. The bank maintained guidance for further rate hikes as the market awaits Governor Ueda’s press conference this (Friday) morning.
The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September 2026, the fastest in six months, driven by higher energy costs. Core PCE was up 0.3% month-on-month. Year-on-year, headline PCE reached 3.6% and core 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.
The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2026, the fastest in a year and above forecasts. Growth was driven by a surge in private investment, strong consumer spending, higher government outlays, and inventory gains, while housing investment fell and net trade weighed on GDP.
US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24, 2026, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims dropped to 1.701 million, the lowest in over three years, underscoring a strong labor market.
Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 2.7% in September. The BoJ’s preferred core measure slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, below forecasts, after it raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest since 1995.
Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September 2026 from 2.5% in August, with employment up, participation at 64.5%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rising to 1.19, indicating a tighter labor market.
Japan’s retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year in September 2026, the slowest in three months and below forecasts, led by a jump in motor vehicle sales. Month-on-month, sales fell 0.7%, a second consecutive decline.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0745 – France Oct. Flash CPI
0800 – Spain Oct. Flash CPI
0855 – Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate / Change
0900 – Germany Q3 GDP estimate
1000 – Eurozone Q3 GDP estimate
1000 – Italy Flash Oct. CPI
1230 – Canada Aug. and Q3 GDP
1300 – Germany Oct. Flash CPI
1345 – Germany Oct. Chicago PMI

Earnings events

Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

Top highlights for next week:

Monday: Apple, Palantir
Tuesday: AMD
Wednesday: Novo Nordisk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: Equities snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% to 29,402, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720 and the Dow lost 0.3% to 52,343. Caterpillar fell nearly 10% on modest earnings. After hours, Intel dropped about 23% on a weak Q4 outlook. Amazon fell about 7% on elevated capex, negative free cash flow of $42.4bn over the past 12 months and slowing e-commerce growth. Starbucks slipped about 1.7% as international weakness outweighed a US comp beat.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8% to 649.11, the DAX gained 1.3% to 26,040, the CAC 40 added 1.1% to 7,970 and the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10,722. Kongsberg jumped 13%, Adidas rose 5.8%, Sandoz gained 4.4% and Novartis 2.4%. Haleon fell as much as 15%, its worst day since listing in 2022, after cutting its organic growth outlook because a China regulatory change halted Centrum vitamin sales.
Asia: The open looks tough. The Kospi fell about 4.5% to 5,662 as tech names took the brunt of the Intel and Amazon fallout. Nikkei futures point lower, with AI infrastructure suppliers such as Lasertec and Ibiden under pressure. The Hang Seng faces headwinds from mainland investors pulling back at the fastest pace in over five years, with net outflows of HK$24bn in October through Thursday. BYD missed Q3 profit estimates despite overseas sales more than doubling, and Geely did not reassure on its European export outlook.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Thursday's damage was concentrated in large tech, and options markets priced it that way. The VIX rose only modestly to 17.20 while Nasdaq vol jumped almost 6%. After Intel and Amazon disappointed after the close, the front VIX future moved above December overnight. That inverts the front of the curve and leaves the November contract, which spans the 9 December Fed decision, carrying a building hump for hike risk. Implied dispersion eased as megacap earnings premium drained away, while SKEW firmed.
Options price about 0.64% for today and 1.64% into 6 November, a window holding Apple, the 3 November vote and payrolls. MOVE eased as Treasuries rallied, so rates vol did not confirm the equity stress.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~77,964 +0.08% | ETHEREUM ~2,231 -0.87% | IBIT 45.71 -0.93% | ETHA 52.78 -1.53% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

Forced selling did the work overnight. Bitcoin dipped below USD 77,000 before steadying after Binance confirmed a major hack and froze more than USD 2.5bn of affected funds, and leveraged longs took most of the liquidations.
The listed names had already turned lower with tech on Thursday. AI-exposed miners fell hardest, Iren and Cipher Digital each losing close to 9%, as Alphabet's capital spending revived doubts about hyperscaler demand for their data-centre capacity.
Strategy and Coinbase reported after the close: both beat on profit through crypto revaluation gains while revenue fell short, and Strategy announced its CFO is stepping down. Ether funds shed about USD 105m, a fourth straight outflow.

Commodities

Oil: Brent is heading for another weekly gain, ending an already strong month on a firm note near USD 116.50. Prices remain supported by concerns that the US could resume military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, raising the risk of renewed escalation and supply disruptions. This comes despite separate reports of ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at securing a temporary peace agreement, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook.
Precious metals: Silver continues to underperform gold, touching a fresh 11-month low below USD 51 and fully retracing its December–January rally. Despite oversold conditions, the risk of further long liquidation and momentum-driven selling remains. With gold holding above key support around USD 3,970, the XAUXAG ratio has climbed above 78, highlighting silver's relative weakness. Meanwhile, gold continues to attract demand from investors less sensitive to interest rate developments. Heading into the weekend, traders will watch whether the US technology sector selloff extends into today's session, potentially triggering broader deleveraging and liquidity-driven selling across markets, including precious metals.
Commodities: The BCOM Total Return Index trading flat on the month masks a major rotation between sectors. Energy continues to outperform, supported by Middle East supply disruptions, while grains and precious metals have suffered from harvest pressure, rising bond yields and speculative long liquidation. Silver, wheat, corn and US natural gas are among the biggest losers, while crude oil, diesel and sugar lead the gains. The year-to-date reversal is striking, with energy up almost 100% after losing 10% last year, while precious metals are down 11% following an 80% surge in 2025. These contrasting performances highlight the benefits of diversified commodity exposure, given the often dramatic swings across individual markets and sectors.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasuries rallied all along the curve and the yield curve steepened Thursday and overnight into Friday on another two marquee tech names spooking risk sentiment in the tech space, even as most US stocks rose Thursday. This was despite the strong US GDP estimate for Q3 and another week of near record low jobless claims data. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell ten basis points Thursday to a its lowest since mid-September at 4.60% and fell another two basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year yield yield fell eight basis points Thursday and bit more early Friday, trading 4.92%.
Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB is eying its lowest daily close in almost three months today, trading six basis points lower at 2.78% as the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged Friday, but guided for further policy tightening after raising a key inflation forecast.
US high yield bonds didn’t enjoy the strength in the US Treasury market. The Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US Treasuries widened 10 basis points to 323 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar traded lower Thursday and into early Friday, although it bounced from overnight lows by early trading hours in Europe. The drop in US tech stocks and especially the significant post-FOMC drop in US treasury yields may be the drivers. EURUSD traded 1.1183 early Friday after rising as high as 1.1215 in early hours Friday. Those highs came after touching a new 17-month low briefly at 1.1105 on the ECB announcement Thursday .
While EURUSD rebounded, the ECB delivered no real surprises Thursday and the Euro remained soft against other European currencies, falling to a new low below 11.00 versus the Swedish krona, and also seeing new local lows versus the Swiss franc, pound sterling and Norwegian krone.
The JPY saw a choppy session early Friday, surging after plunging global bond yields Thursday failed to support the currency. The Bank of Japan statement guiding for further rate hikes and raising a key inflation forecast failed to support the JPY, which fell back ahead of the Governor Ueda press conference early today (Friday). USDJPY trades 157.63, not much changed from late Thursday levels after dipping as low as 157.12.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

AI earnings: Big growth, bigger spending, tougher questions

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 03:00:00 Z

Key points:

AI demand remains strong, but the cost of growth is rising. Cloud, semiconductor and memory companies continue to report exceptional growth. However, soaring capital expenditure is shifting investor attention from revenue growth to cash flow, profitability and returns on investment.
AI infrastructure is still booming, but exceptional margins may be harder to sustain. Supply constraints are supporting strong earnings across chips, memory and storage. However, elevated profitability encourages capacity expansion, potentially increasing competition and pricing pressure over time.
The next phase of AI is adoption, but the productivity payoff remains largely unproven. Early monetisation is visible in advertising, cloud and enterprise software, but broad-based productivity gains have yet to emerge. For portfolios, this argues for financial resilience, valuation discipline and diversification beyond AI infrastructure into potential beneficiaries of adoption.

The latest round of technology earnings has delivered a clear message: AI demand is not the problem. The challenge is increasingly about the cost of meeting that demand and how much of the growth eventually translates into profits and cash flow.

Cloud providers are growing rapidly, semiconductor and memory companies are enjoying exceptional demand, and AI is beginning to generate revenues for software businesses.

Yet strong results have not always been rewarded by investors. Higher spending, uncertain future margins and elevated valuations are making markets more selective.

Here is what the latest results tell us about where the AI investment cycle stands.

Tech earnings: What the major companies reported

Big Tech: Strong growth, rising investment commitments

Microsoft: Revenue grew 19% year-on-year, with Azure revenue up 48%. The company generated $18.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow despite substantial infrastructure spending. Microsoft continues to demonstrate the benefits of combining cloud growth with an established enterprise customer base, although AI investment requirements remain significant.
Alphabet (Google): Revenue rose 25%, with Google Cloud revenue more than doubling to $30.7 billion. Search revenue grew 12%, showing resilience in its core advertising business. However, substantial capital spending pushed quarterly free cash flow into negative territory, reinforcing questions about the cost of AI expansion and its longer-term impact on Search economics.
Amazon: AWS revenue grew 39%, its fastest pace in nearly five years, while Amazon delivered a record operating margin of 13.9%. Yet expected 2026 capital spending of approximately $220 billion shows how expensive the cloud expansion has become. AWS growth is encouraging, but the returns on this investment will remain a key focus.
Meta: Revenue increased 26%, supported by 10% growth in advertising impressions and a 14% increase in average ad prices. AI is already improving its advertising business. However, quarterly capital spending reached nearly $35 billion, while free cash flow turned negative. Reported profitability was also affected by a substantial one-off litigation charge. The question is whether future AI benefits can justify increasingly large investments.

Semiconductors, memory and storage: Strong demand and exceptional profitability

TSMC: Revenue increased 41% in US-dollar terms, with a gross margin of 66.4%. Demand for advanced chips remains strong, reinforcing TSMC's importance in the AI supply chain. However, the strength of current margins also raises the bar for future earnings.
ASML: Quarterly revenue reached €11.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5%. Demand for advanced manufacturing equipment and productivity upgrades continues to improve, with customers discussing capacity needs extending several years into the future. This provides visibility, although the industry remains exposed to capital-spending cycles.
SK hynix: Revenue surged 328% year-on-year, while operating margin reached 80%, supported by strong AI memory demand and pricing. Long-term supply agreements provide greater visibility, but such exceptional profitability also raises questions about how margins might evolve as industry capacity expands.
Seagate: Revenue reached $4.2 billion and quarterly free cash flow increased to $1.5 billion, supported by strong demand for high-capacity storage. The results show how AI infrastructure spending is benefiting businesses beyond chipmakers. However, storage remains a cyclical industry, and strong current profitability may attract additional supply.

Enterprise technology: Growth opportunities, but not without disruption

ServiceNow: Subscription revenue increased 21%, while the company raised its 2026 AI annual contract value target to $1.7 billion. This provides evidence of enterprise customers paying for AI capabilities. However, concerns about forward contracted-revenue growth and the potential disruption of traditional software models weighed on investor sentiment.
Intel: Revenue increased 21%, with data-centre and AI revenue growing 78%. However, a weaker outlook for the fourth quarter and continued weakness in the PC market highlighted the uneven recovery across its businesses. Strong AI demand alone is not enough to offset every operational challenge.

Four key themes from the earnings season

# 1: AI demand is strong, but the spending bill is getting much bigger

The clearest positive takeaway is that demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate.

Azure grew 48%, Google Cloud expanded 103%, and AWS grew 39%. These numbers suggest that the appetite for computing capacity remains substantial.

However, meeting that demand is becoming increasingly expensive.

Amazon expects to spend approximately $220 billion on capital expenditure this year, while Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are also committing substantial resources to expanding data centres and AI infrastructure.

This spending supports near-term growth across the semiconductor supply chain, but it creates longer-term financial obligations.

Depreciation, equipment replacement, energy costs and financing requirements will increasingly matter. AI technology is also evolving rapidly, meaning infrastructure purchased today could become less competitive sooner than expected.

The risk is not necessarily that AI demand disappoints. It is that the cost of supplying that demand rises faster than the profits it generates.

For investors, the distinction between companies capable of financing investment through recurring cash flow and those reliant on external capital is becoming more important.

# 2: AI benefits are emerging, but monetisation remains uneven

The earnings show that AI is starting to deliver commercial benefits, but not all companies are benefiting equally.

Meta is already seeing improvements in advertising performance. Microsoft is monetising AI through cloud infrastructure and enterprise software. ServiceNow is reporting growing AI-related contract value.

These are encouraging signs.

However, higher AI revenues do not automatically translate into stronger profits. Some companies are generating incremental revenues from AI, while others are primarily absorbing higher infrastructure and development costs.

Traditional software businesses face an additional complication. AI could improve their products and create new revenue streams, but AI agents may also reduce demand for some existing software functions or challenge per-user subscription pricing.

This is creating a more complex environment for investors.

The next question is not simply whether customers are using AI, but whether companies can capture enough economic value from that usage.

# 3: AI infrastructure remains strong, but exceptional margins may become harder to sustain

Some of the most impressive earnings this season came from companies supplying AI infrastructure.

TSMC reported gross margins above 66%, SK hynix achieved an 80% operating margin, and advanced semiconductor equipment and storage companies continue to benefit from strong demand.

These results reflect genuine supply constraints and technological advantages.

However, unusually high profitability also creates incentives for the industry to expand capacity.

Over time, new manufacturing facilities, additional memory production and greater availability of computing infrastructure could reduce shortages and put pressure on pricing.

That does not mean a downturn is imminent. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing is difficult to replicate, and supply constraints could persist longer than expected, particularly in highly specialised areas.

But the investment equation is changing.

When earnings expectations already assume exceptional growth and margins, companies need increasingly strong results to deliver positive surprises.

The infrastructure boom can continue while share-price returns become more uneven. Strong demand does not guarantee that today's exceptional margins will last indefinitely.

# 4: The next phase of AI is adoption — but the productivity payoff is still largely unproven

So far, much of the AI investment cycle has focused on building capacity: chips, data centres, networking, memory and power infrastructure.

The next phase should increasingly focus on what businesses can actually achieve with that infrastructure.

AI has the potential to improve productivity across industries, from automating administrative work and customer service to accelerating research, software development and business processes.

There are already examples of benefits in individual businesses. Meta's advertising improvements and growing enterprise AI software sales suggest that commercial use cases are developing.

However, there is still limited evidence of broad, measurable productivity gains across the wider economy.

Companies may be adopting AI tools, but implementation costs, employee training, workflow changes and the need for human oversight can delay financial benefits.

Importantly, productivity gains do not always accrue to the company purchasing the AI tools. Some benefits may be passed on to customers through lower prices or absorbed by competition.

This could be one of the most important questions for 2027.

If adoption begins to generate sustained improvements in corporate margins and returns, the AI investment opportunity could broaden beyond technology infrastructure into a much wider range of sectors.

If the productivity gains take longer to materialise, businesses may become more cautious about AI spending, potentially slowing the growth of the infrastructure suppliers that have benefited most so far.

The next stage of the AI cycle may be defined less by how much infrastructure gets built and more by how effectively businesses put it to work.

Beyond the earnings: Where might investors be overreacting?

One of the more interesting developments this earnings season has been the difference between business performance and share-price reactions.

Some companies have experienced sharp selloffs despite relatively resilient underlying businesses. Others are facing challenges that may justify a more lasting reassessment of their valuations.

There are three areas worth distinguishing.

	Companies to watch	What investors should consider
Selloff may be excessive	ServiceNow, Alphabet, Meta	Strong underlying businesses, but concerns about AI spending, monetisation and future growth have weighed on sentiment. Is the market pricing in too much pessimism?
Story has weakened	Intel, Fortinet, leveraged AI infrastructure providers	Softer guidance, slowing growth or financing pressures raise questions about future earnings. Is this temporary weakness or a more lasting challenge?
Story has strengthened	Microsoft, TSMC, SK hynix, Seagate	Results reinforce strong demand, earnings momentum or competitive advantages. But how much of this optimism is already reflected in valuations?

Bottom line: The AI story is entering a more demanding phase

The latest earnings have reinforced confidence in the strength of AI demand. Cloud businesses are growing rapidly, infrastructure suppliers are reporting exceptional results, and commercial applications are beginning to generate revenue.

But the investment story is becoming more complicated.

Spending is rising, infrastructure margins may not remain exceptional forever, and the broader productivity benefits of AI are still largely ahead of us.

For investors, the next phase calls for a more balanced approach: maintain awareness of the structural AI opportunity, pay closer attention to cash flow and returns on capital, and look for evidence that AI adoption is creating sustainable economic value beyond the technology sector.

The AI boom has already shown us how much companies are willing to spend. The next chapter will be about how much they can earn from that investment.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Amazon NVIDIA Corporation Microsoft Microsoft Corp. Amazon.com Alphabet NVidia Corp. Advanced Micro Devices Intel Corp Intel Corp. Meta Platforms Inc.

Microsoft and Alphabet earnings: same AI boom, two very different verdicts

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Microsoft’s strong cloud growth and cash generation gave investors greater confidence in its AI spending.
Alphabet’s cloud business surged, but weaker advertising momentum raised tougher questions about its core business.
For investors, the test is shifting from building AI capacity to earning a return on it.

Artificial intelligence can answer almost anything. But investors have one harder question: will it pay for itself?

On 28 October 2026, Microsoft and Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported results that offered two very different answers. Both reported strong AI demand. Yet Microsoft shares rose after hours while Alphabet fell sharply. Investors were judging who could pay the bill.

Microsoft: the spending has a customer

Microsoft sells software to businesses and rents out computing power through Azure, its cloud platform. Azure sales grew 48%, beating expectations, as companies kept paying for AI computing.

More importantly, Microsoft generated 18.6 billion USD in free cash flow, the money left after running the business and investing in equipment. Its costly data centres are supporting sales without consuming all its cash.

There is a catch. Microsoft's spending came in below forecasts partly because some computing capacity arrived late. Its investment bill is still growing. The market rewarded progress, not a risk-free spending plan.

Alphabet: more searches, less money per answer

Alphabet makes most of its money from Google advertising, alongside cloud services. Its Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, showing strong demand for its AI infrastructure.

The trouble sits closer to home. Search advertising grew, but less than analysts expected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Google says users are making more searches, yet its newer AI Mode currently earns less advertising revenue per search.

Google needs better AI answers to keep users, but they currently earn less than traditional search pages. Meanwhile, heavy investment left Alphabet with negative free cash flow of 9.1 billion USD, its second consecutive quarter below zero.

Search remains a huge business. The question is whether higher AI usage will translate into more cash.

The wider lesson: follow the money

Both companies also earn money serving potential rivals. Microsoft's relationship with OpenAI and Google's cloud business with Anthropic show how they can benefit without winning every chatbot contest.

That demand supports chipmakers, data-centre builders and electricity suppliers. But much depends on a few enormous customers continuing to finance expansion.

Risks worth watching

For Alphabet, the key signs are whether AI searches generate more advertising revenue and whether cash generation recovers. For Microsoft, watch whether cloud growth stays strong as delayed investments arrive. Both face rising costs and dependence on large AI customers.

The answer is in the cash

These results are not a final verdict on which company will lead artificial intelligence. Microsoft has a clearer near-term link between AI demand, revenue and cash generation. Alphabet has a harder balancing act, defending the advertising model that made Google successful while rebuilding it for a different way of searching.

For investors, that distinction matters more than one evening's share-price reaction. A growing market does not guarantee that every participant will earn attractive returns. What counts is whether customers keep paying, whether costs remain manageable and whether the business can fund its ambitions. AI can produce remarkable answers. The companies that matter most to investors will also need to produce cash.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

The FX Trader: FOMC a modest dovish surprise. ECB and BoJ on tap.

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:10:00 Z

Most of the USD reaction to FOMC already erased.

FOMC – a modest dovish surprise
The US dollar weakened slightly and the US Treasury yield curve steepened late Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference, with the latter making the bigger impression. The statement was largely the same and there were two hawkish dissenters in favour of a hike. Of the changes to the statement, one was a slightly hawkish upgrade as economic was now described as expanding at a "strong" rather than a merely "solid" pace. Another change left room for interpretation: the change of the September justification for tightening was replaced with a data-dependent "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely" (rather than timelier) return to the 2% target. Probably just revised to explain why they are waiting and not hiking at this meeting? Unknown.

In the presser, there were a few nuances that the market took as dovish. Chair Warsh pushed back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. This looks like a strong "out" for not responding to higher inflation levels. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and beginning to restrain credit conditions and wanted another six weeks (time frame to next meeting) to assess what to do. He also rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation.

While the reaction in treasury markets (front-end coming down, long end mostly steady) largely stuck, the modest USD sell-off spent most of early Thursday hours reversing, even if the JPY comeback was trying to hold on. For the US dollar this was a largely a non-event, in short - direction of global risk sentiment and oil prices may carry more sway for now in UDS direction.

ECB today
The ECB has perhaps more potential to surprise today given the pricing of the December rate hike (still high odds, but will the ECB indicate declining resolve to continue tightening policy?). Further tightening is not priced in until March or later of next year. I suspect a solidly high risk that the ECB removes forward guidance for any further tightening, at least upgrading the uncertainty level, which could knock the Euro a bit lower. How much will the ECB admit that the elephant in the room is the recent instability in French sovereign bonds? Awkward, with a French ECB President presiding. Still, the euro has suffered quite a bit in the crosses already, so a dovish shift is partially priced in (note the trend readings in the FX Board below.)

BoJ incoming as well
The retreat in short-date US treasury yields post-FOMC helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting (look for the statement release around 0230-0330 GMT and Ueda presser at 0630). The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels as noted in USDJPY chart below) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months. With USDJPY trading near 158.00, I would expect the Bank of Japan to sound resolute on doing what it takes to ensure inflation fighting credibility, including on the currency angle risk to inflation, but how much this can jolt rate spreads higher is somewhat doubtful, given that the December BoJ is already mostly priced to deliver a hike, with more to come next year. Actual intervention may be needed from the Ministry of Finance to make the point clear, even if Ueda waxes hawkish.

Chart: USDJPY
With so many bouts of intervention in the mix in recent months, it is difficult to argue the case for technical analysis on the USDJPY chart, but either way, the 158.50 plus area remains obviously critical for the pair, as it is both near recent resistance and the obvious 200-day moving average and Ichimoku cloud levels. Note that the recent lows avoided touching the bottom of the cloud, which is now set to rise above those levels – so the first downside key is the cloud bottom on the daily closing basis, followed by the local 156.08 pivot low and then the 155.25 area (61.8% retracement level).

Source: Saxo

RBNZ dovish shocker and BoC hike
The Bank of Canada hiked yesterday as seemed inevitable after recent hawkish rhetoric from Governor Macklem, but even with the dovish FOMC yesterday, USDCAD is having a hard time separating from the magnetic round 1.4000 level. That level looks pivotal for the pair. Canadian short rates pulled toward the cycle highs as Macklem said that the estimate of the neutral rate may have to rise, among other comments. The RBNZ surprised early Wednesday with a dovish shocker in not hiking again as the market expected, though it positioned the move as a delay rather than a direction change and the vote was a close 4-3. Still, the bank upgraded short-term inflation forecasts at the same time, while saying it paused as an expression of concern on the outlook for global growth and that inflation was mostly being driven by imported energy costs. The NZD was punched steeply lower, especially in AUDNZD as Australia was out with strong inflation numbers around the same time frame, but RBNZ Governor Breman has already been out with a bit of pushback on the market's takeway, saying that the odds of a December hike are high. AUDNZD set a new 13-year high near 1.2600.

Autumn Budget statement yawn for sterling
There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “fiscal headroom” to avoid fiscal stability concerns for now, although that headroom is now smaller than before. The household energy subsidy of GBP 100 to 20 million households won't break the bank, and most moves were incremental, with some modest tax increases, a temporary one on bank earnings and on savings and property income (not on wage). The really tough stuff is yet to come: the overall spending by the government's various departments which will be undergoing the biannual 2027 spending review. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

China keeping a firm hand under its currency as the country remains mired in a balance sheet and deflationary (for housing especially) spiral. Elsewhere, the JPY rally attempt has fizzled a bit ahead of the BoJ tomorrow. In the negative column, the NZD paid a heavy price for not hiking and the Euro is extremely weak, so a bit tough to hope for a massive reaction to a dovish surprise at today’s ECB meeting when it is already beaten down so aggressively. Much of that, by the way, is versus SEK and especially NOK.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The AUD is trying to put on a show here, but AUDUSD, for example, is in the shadow of the prior major sell-off and has sold off sharply after punching above the 200-day moving average after the FOMC meeting – it looks sensitive to risk sentiment here. Let’s give the AUDNZD and AUDJPY another couple of days to settle as well – a bit skeptical about this AUD move, obviously. USDJPY status is uncertain as well – yes, the recent sell-off was neutralized, but we have a massive overhead resistance and a BoJ meeting to get through. Elsewhere, EURNOK is getting to be a bit much with a -12.4 trend reading (!). Imagine what happens there if we suddenly get 10-dollar drop in crude.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Novo Nordisk results: your shares are Danish, the options are American

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 07:55:00 Z

Novo Nordisk reports nine-month results on 4 November 2026. Many investors hold the shares in Copenhagen, but the options at Saxo trade on the New York ADR. What does that change for a cash-secured put or a covered call?

Same company, two share lines. Before results day, it helps to know which one an option is written on.

Key information on the NVO ADR. Indicative figures. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, as of the 28 October 2026 US close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to publish its nine-month 2026 results on Wednesday 4 November 2026, before the Copenhagen market opens. The focus is the 2026 outlook, raised in August but still pointing to lower sales than last year (Source: Novo Nordisk).

Many Danish investors own Novo Nordisk B shares on Nasdaq Copenhagen. At Saxo, the listed options on the company sit on a different line: the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) traded in New York under the ticker NVO. For anyone thinking about options around this report, that is the first thing to understand.

NVO ADR share price with the two example strikes and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 28 October 2026.

One company, two share lines

An ADR is a certificate traded in the US that stands for shares of a foreign company. Each NVO ADR represents one Novo Nordisk B share (Source: Novo Nordisk investor relations), but the two are different securities. The ADR trades in US dollars, on the New York Stock Exchange, from 15:30 to 22:00 CET. The B shares trade in Danish kroner in Copenhagen, which closes at 17:00 CET.

That has three practical effects. The dollar-krone exchange rate moves the result on top of the share price, in either direction. A report at 07:30 CET trades in Copenhagen for hours before New York opens. And a covered call is covered only by the security the option is written on. One NVO contract covers 100 ADRs, so a call sold against Copenhagen shares is not covered at all. It is a short call with open-ended risk.

Sizing the move from option prices

Adding the price of the call and the put at the strike closest to the share price gives a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. For the 20 November expiry, that points to about 8.5% in either direction, over every trading day to expiry, not only results day.

38 strike: call 1.815 + put 1.435 = 3.25
38.50 strike: call 1.595 + put 1.69 = 3.285
At the ADR price of USD 38.29: about USD 3.27, or 8.5%, a rough range of USD 35.02 to USD 41.56
(Source: Saxo, indicative mid prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close; author calculation)

On most of the last eight results days, the ADR moved less than 6%. The exception was February 2026, when an outlook released the evening before sent the ADR down about 15% and the Copenhagen shares about 17% (Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, closing prices). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Share price move on the last eight Novo Nordisk results days, Copenhagen B shares and NVO ADR. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, closing prices, November 2024 to August 2026.

A weekly for traders, a monthly for investors

A weekly NVO option expires on Friday 6 November 2026, two days after the report. That is a tool for short-term traders. The examples here use the monthly expiry on Friday 20 November 2026, a horizon closer to how an investor thinks. The premium is larger, but it pays for more than the report: it also covers two extra weeks of ordinary price movement.

Part of every option price right now is a payment for the uncertainty of results day. Once the numbers are out, that part usually shrinks. The seller collects it up front and carries the risk of a large move. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses. In February and August 2026, Novo released its numbers the evening before the scheduled date, while New York was still trading (the US close is 22:00 CET); an early release would still fall well before 20 November.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Naming a lower purchase price: a cash-secured put at 35

Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 ADRs at the strike if NVO is below it at expiry. In exchange, the seller receives a premium today and keeps the full purchase amount set aside in cash. The view behind it: an investor who would be willing to own Novo, but only at a lower price.

The following example is hypothetical and for educational use only; it is not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 NVO 20 November 2026 35 put at about USD 0.42 (bid 0.40, ask 0.44), with NVO at USD 38.29
Net credit: USD 42 (0.42 x 100), hypothetical, for education only
Cash set aside: USD 3,500
Break-even at expiry: USD 34.58, the strike less the premium, about 10% below the current price
Maximum risk: USD 3,458 (hypothetical, for education only), if NVO fell to zero; Maximum profit: the USD 42 premium (hypothetical, for education only)
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close)

The risk comes first. Below the break-even, the loss grows dollar for dollar, exactly as for a shareholder, while the premium is the whole gain however far NVO rises. A repeat of February’s fall would take the ADR to about USD 33, below the strike, and the seller would own the ADRs at a loss. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

Why 35: it is the first listed strike below the lower edge of the rough range, so a move of the size the options point to would not reach it.

The 35 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices.

Naming a sale price for ADRs already held: a covered call at 42

Selling a covered call means agreeing to sell 100 ADRs already owned at the strike if NVO is above it at expiry, for a premium received today. This example is narrow on purpose: it fits only an investor who already holds NVO ADRs and has already settled on a price at which they would sell some. Whether Novo looks cheap or expensive after this year’s fall is each investor’s own judgement; the call does not answer that question.

The following example is hypothetical and for educational use only; it is not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Own 100 NVO ADRs; Sell 1 NVO 20 November 2026 42 call at about USD 0.47 (bid 0.44, ask 0.50), with NVO at USD 38.29
Net credit: USD 47 (0.47 x 100), about 1.2% of the USD 3,829 ADR value, hypothetical, for education only
Break-even at expiry: USD 37.82, the ADR price less the premium
Maximum profit: USD 418 (hypothetical, for education only), USD 371 of gain up to 42 plus the premium, if NVO is at or above 42 at expiry; Maximum risk: USD 3,782 (hypothetical, for education only), if NVO fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close)

The risk comes first. The investor retains the full downside risk of holding the ADRs. The premium received provides a partial offset, but it does not protect against a significant decline in the share price: a fall like February’s would cost roughly USD 560 on 100 ADRs, against USD 47 received. If results lift the shares well above 42, the holder also gives that gain away until expiry. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

Why 42: it is the first listed strike above the upper edge of the rough range.

The 42 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, so it reports unlimited risk; held against 100 NVO ADRs, a rise above 42 is covered by the ADRs, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices.

What neither example protects against

Neither example protects against a large fall. The put seller may end up owning ADRs bought above the market price, and the call seller still owns the ADRs. Next to a move like February’s, the premium is small.

An investor who believes the shares have fallen far enough sees it from the other side: the covered call may give away the part they care about most, a recovery. An investor who does not want to own Novo has no use for the put. For both, and for anyone who prefers to wait for the numbers, doing nothing is a valid outcome. Tax treatment of options and ADRs depends on each investor’s own situation and local rules.

Before placing the trade, check:

The gap between bid and ask, and the open interest at the strike
The expiry: Friday 20 November 2026, and that the strike is listed
The report timing: scheduled 07:30 CET on 4 November 2026, with an early release on the evening of 3 November possible
That the account holds USD for the cash set aside, or what a currency conversion would cost
For the covered call, that the position is in ADRs, not Copenhagen shares
Commission, charged per contract and larger in proportion on a small premium
An exit plan, decided before the report

Assignment risk note: NVO options are American-style, so a short option can be assigned on any day before expiry if it moves in the money. Settlement is by delivery of ADRs, not Copenhagen shares. Only the seller of an option faces assignment risk.

Back to the Copenhagen holding

For a Copenhagen holder, the main lesson around this report is a practical one. The options available at Saxo sit on the ADR, so they bring a second currency, a second trading session and, for the covered call, a second holding. In our view, those details may matter as much as the choice between a put and a call. Either example can be closed before expiry, but neither removes the size of a results-day move. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

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UBS reports on Wednesday two ways to name your price while Bern decides \| 27 Oct 2026 Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere \| 23 Oct 2026 CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries \| 21 Oct 2026 Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 20 Oct 2026 SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 16 Oct 2026 Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener \| 18 Sep 2026 What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 -- Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

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UBS reports on Wednesday two ways to name your price while Bern decides | 27 Oct 2026
Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere | 23 Oct 2026
CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries | 21 Oct 2026
Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 20 Oct 2026
SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 16 Oct 2026

Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener | 18 Sep 2026

What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version | 9 April 2026
Trading earnings with defined | 31 Mar 2026
--
Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026
Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles Theme - Crypto and blockchain ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - Alphabet revenue miss spooks markets - 29 October 2026

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 07:17:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: The Fed held with hawkish dissents while Canada hiked and Britain kept its fiscal rules
Equities: US equities edged higher after the Fed held rates, Europe finished flat, Asia turned mixed as AI earnings divided investors.
Volatility: Index gauges eased after the Fed hold while front futures rose overnight on tech earnings
Digital Assets: Miners and crypto equities firmed in the session while tokens slipped overnight
Commodities: Oil dips on Iran diplomacy, gas prices soar while gold remains under pressure
Fixed Income: US front-end yields fall on slightly dovish impressions from post-FOMC Fed Chair Warsh press conference
Currencies: US dollar retreats on FOMC, but erases losses early Thursday, although JPY held firmer.

Macro

The FOMC voted 10–2 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control but offered little guidance on December. His carefully calibrated remarks nevertheless suggested a modest dovish shift within the committee, prompting markets to scale back tightening expectations to just two fully priced rate hikes over the next 12 months, with growing doubts about a December move. Warsh also indicated that the Fed is likely to reduce the number of scheduled policy meetings from eight to six annually, with one meeting removed in 2027 and a further two in 2028. The combination of a less hawkish policy outlook and proposed changes to the meeting schedule contributed to a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve.
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 bps to 2.5% in October 2026, its first hike in three years, to curb broader inflation pressures from high energy prices. It signaled possible further increases but urged caution, noting inflation is higher and more persistent than in July. CPI is now seen averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% by mid-2028, with growth projected at 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027–28.
UK Chancellor John Healey’s first budget upheld fiscal rules, with the OBR estimating £15bn of headroom in 2029–30. Measures include energy bill relief, smaller bank tax hikes, tariff suspensions on 100+ supermarket goods, a 3.9% minimum wage rise, and £20.4bn more for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1%, raised 2026 to 1.2%, and lifted borrowing and debt projections.
The US goods deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September 2026, the largest since March 2025 and above the $130 billion forecast, as imports rose 2.4% to a record $344.15 billion and exports increased 2.6% to $209.24 billion.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0930 – UK Sept Mortgage Approvals
1000 – Eurozone October Consumer Confidence
1230 – US Sep. PCE inflation
1230 – US 3Q GDP (First estimate)
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1315 – ECB Rate Decision
1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
2330 – Japan Tokyo Oct. CPI
Friday 0230-0330 (approximately) – Japan Bank of Japan decision and statement
Friday 0630 – Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference

Earnings events

Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.2% after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, although two policymakers voted for a hike. Oracle surged 10.7% after projecting $30 billion in annual free cash flow by fiscal 2029, reassuring investors about its AI spending, while Boston Scientific fell 5.8% after cutting its outlook following a cyberattack. After the close, Alphabet slumped around 10% on disappointing revenue and negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while Microsoft gained almost 3% as Azure cloud revenue grew 48%, beating expectations.
Europe: European equities finished broadly flat, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% to 644.14, the DAX gaining 0.4%, and the FTSE 100 edging 0.1% higher as investors assessed earnings and the UK budget ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision. Barclays rose 1.6% after the UK government's increase in the bank surcharge proved smaller than feared, while Stellantis surged 15.6% in Milan after better-than-expected quarterly revenue and reaffirmed guidance. Genmab jumped 29.1% after reporting positive late-stage trial results for a head-and-neck cancer treatment, while Logitech dropped 10.8% as concerns over future profit margins overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings.
Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Thursday, with South Korea's Kospi falling around 1.5% in afternoon trading after Wednesday's 6.6% rally, while Japan's Nikkei edged higher and Hong Kong was little changed as AI earnings unsettled sentiment. Samsung Electronics dropped around 4% despite record earnings, as investors were disappointed by the absence of stronger shareholder returns, while SK Hynix showed greater resilience after surging 10.9% on Wednesday following record profits and a substantial shareholder payout announcement. Mainland Chinese shares also weakened as concerns over AI valuations weighed on sentiment. Attention now turns to Amazon and Intel earnings and the European Central Bank's policy decision.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Traders sold index protection after the Fed hold and kept paying for single-stock risk, and the after-hours tape rewarded that split. The VIX fell to 16.91 while the one-day gauge rose about 5% to 13.15, pricing roughly 0.8% for today's GDP, PCE and ECB session. Dispersion climbed to its highest close in seven sessions as SKEW eased, a bet on megacap earnings gaps rather than an index-wide shock, and Alphabet's after-hours drop of about 10% delivered one.
The October VIX contract has expired, so the 3 November midterm now sits inside spot VIX, which trades almost two points below November futures. MOVE fell to 94.55, confirming calmer rates vol, though front futures rose 2.16% overnight to 19.000.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~79,731 -1.85% | ETHEREUM ~2,305 -2.19% | IBIT 46.14 +0.96% | ETHA 53.60 +1.07% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

Bitcoin miners traded on AI capacity again on Wednesday, gaining between 4.8% and 6.6% as the chip rally sparked by SK Hynix's sold-out memory outlook spilled into data-centre names. The tokens then slipped overnight with Nasdaq futures after Alphabet's results, taking bitcoin back below USD 80,000 and ether to about USD 2,305, with XRP and Solana both down about 2.7%.
Strategy shareholders approved daily dividends on its preferred stock, with STRC's first daily record date on 1 November, ahead of tonight's results from Strategy and Coinbase.
Fund flows split again: bitcoin ETFs took in USD 176.0m on Tuesday, led by IBIT, while ether funds lost USD 60.2m as ETHA redemptions continued.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades softer, slipping back below USD 114 amid signs of intensified diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance has contacted Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s top security body, while President Trump confirmed to Axios that negotiations were underway. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also reiterated Tehran’s openness to diplomacy. However, significant obstacles remain, limiting the reaction across crude and refined-product markets, particularly given Trump’s repeated warnings that military operations against Iran could resume after the US midterm elections, potentially alongside Israel. Meanwhile, crude exports remain near pre-war levels, while supplies of refined products and, especially, LNG continue to face severe disruption.
Natural gas/LNG: With Qatar's LNG production still largely offline and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz facing elevated risks, competition between Europe and Asia for seaborne supplies continues to intensify. European gas prices have surged 250% year-to-date, while Asian LNG prices are up 237%, both trading above USD 30 per MMBtu. European TTF briefly exceeded EUR 100 per MWh on Wednesday for the first time since 2022, raising concerns ahead of the peak winter demand period, not least considering European inventories are more than 100 standard-sized LNG cargoes below recent years.
Gold trades weaker around USD 4025 after staging a modest rebound during the Asian session as traders digest a data-dependent Fed outlook. The tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, leaving prices directionless amid concerns over elevated energy prices, AI-related equity weakness, bond yields and the dollar. Focus remains on a key area of support below USD 4000 while a break above USD 4,070 and subsequently USD 4,230 to force a change in the prevailing sentiment.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve steepened Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference. This was despite the two hawkish dissenting voices in favour of a rate hike rather than standing pat on the current policy rate. The new policy statement offered little of note, but the Warsh press conference saw the Fed Chair pushing back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and he rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped back about six basis points, mostly during the Warsh presser, to near 4.70% and fell slightly further in early trading Thursday, while the 10-year treasury yield was mostly steady just above 5.01% by early Thursday after chopping somewhat higher ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Germany’s short-dated yields rose to the top of the recent range Wednesday ahead of today’s ECB meeting, with the benchmark 2-year Schatz trading near 3.13% on the close and up over four basis points on the day. The market is still pricing the ECB to not hike at today’s meeting, but is looking for high odds of a rate hike at the December meeting, while further hiking is seen unlikely until March of next year or later.

Currencies

The US dollar weakened slightly in the slightly dovish impression left by the FOMC meeting late Wednesday, but firmed again overnight in Asian trading hours, perhaps in part on risk sentiment weakening on tech stock concerns linked to Alphabet and Samsung earnings reports. EURUSD trade 1.1140 early Thursday ahead of the ECB meeting later in the day after matching its 17-month low Wednesday at 1.1113.
The retreat in short-date US treasury yields helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of this Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting. The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months.
There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “ceiling” to avoid any fiscal stability concerns. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Up a fifth, still the cheapest session - Options Brief - 28 October 2026

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z

The Federal Reserve decides this evening, and the option market prices today as the quietest of the three sessions left this week. One reading has stayed high while everything else drained.

One measure on the whole volatility board rose yesterday, the one that covers today, and it still prices the quietest of the three sessions left in the week.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.52 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.22) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.000

Today in brief

The Federal Reserve decides at 19:00 CET this evening, two hours before the US close, and is expected to leave rates unchanged. Today’s S&P 500 expiry settles at that close, so it contains the decision, and it prices 0.60%. The three sessions to Friday price 1.14% together, which leaves about 0.69% for each of Thursday and Friday. The decision day is the cheapest of the three.

In our view Thursday may carry more: US growth and inflation data, the European Central Bank, and the reaction to tonight’s results from Microsoft and Alphabet. Microsoft stands out. Its options price a move of 4.7% against an average of 7.0% over its last eight reports, the only one of the five companies still to report this season priced below its own average.

The one-day volatility gauge did jump 19% yesterday, the only measure on the board to rise, but even after the jump it sits near the middle of its own range and below every longer one. One reading has stayed high. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, eased for a second session but remains at the 94th percentile of the readings we hold. In our view that level may matter: at it, a surprise in one large name is more likely to travel across the index.

The backdrop was firm. The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.60, up 0.60%, and the semiconductor index rose 3.6% after SK Hynix posted record profit, with the Kospi up 6.5%. The S&P 500 has already used 72% of the range priced for this week, upward, with three sessions still to run. Below the index, single-stock volatility drained for a second session, mostly in companies that have finished reporting. In yesterday’s flow the index premium carried no direction, and in the largest names long-dated calls were bought on the ask.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

The Federal Reserve decides at 19:00 CET today, and the last session was spent deciding how little that is worth.

Tuesday was led from Asia. SK Hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, more than seven times last year’s figure, and the Kospi rose 6.51% to 6,005.33. The memory trade carried into New York, where the semiconductor index gained 3.6% and Broadcom rose 4% after a 63 billion dollar financing deal to supply chips to Anthropic.

Boeing went the other way, down 10.7%, its worst day in six years, on weak results and production delays. Meta eased 1.64%.

The decision itself is expected to change nothing: a hold after September’s 25 basis point increase, with the question left to December, where futures price an 82.5% chance of a higher rate by year end.

Market snapshot

US (Tuesday 27 October close): S&P 500 7,722.60, up 0.60%. Nasdaq 100 29,651.44, up 1.29%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,383.25, up 0.03%. The semiconductor fund rose 3.02% to 557.98 and Tesla 4.04%, while Meta fell 1.64% and Microsoft 0.24%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.47% to 643.69, the DAX 0.71% to 25,590.77 and the CAC 40 0.51%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% on weak results, HSBC down 5.4%.
Asia (Wednesday morning): the Kospi rose 6.51% to 6,005.33 on SK Hynix, the Nikkei 225 1.1% and the Hang Seng 0.43%.
Commodities and rates: WTI traded at 101.35 and Brent 110.94, both firmer on renewed warnings of military strikes. Gold eased to 4,056.60 after an Asian rebound stalled, silver to 54.10. The two-year Treasury yield sits at 4.75% and the ten-year back above five at 5.02%. Bitcoin traded near 81,000, the largest bitcoin fund at 45.70.
Market regime: transitioning, the VIX at 17.52, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 149.22.

Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 28 October 2026, which carries Tuesday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

Thirteen measures fell and one rose. The one-day gauge gained 19.45% to 12.53 while the nine-day fell 7.09% to 16.65, the Nasdaq gauge 5.64% to 24.91 and the small-cap gauge 5.44%. Against the 107 sessions in our store, though, that jump leaves the one-day reading at the 62nd percentile of its own range, below the nine-day at the 79th and the headline gauge at the 78th.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.72 from 0.57, recovering most of Monday’s collapse without reaching parity. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.12 from 1.08. VXN/VIX eased to 1.42.

VIX futures. November leads at 19.000, a premium of about 1.48 to spot, widened from 0.73 as spot fell faster than the contract. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returns 18.955, consistent to four hundredths across the nearest strikes, so the contract identity holds and no roll has occurred. December sits a shade above at 19.080, so the two are effectively level.

Correlation and tails. Implied correlation fell 3.30% to 13.49, a second session lower, and still sits at the 94th percentile of the store. Dispersion eased to 37.81. SKEW at 149.22 holds above its 145.70 median, the bond gauge dropped below one hundred to 97.88, and gold volatility at 22.58 sits at the 6th percentile of its own year.

Single-name volatility

The index measures above kept draining and the names drained with them, a second session running. On an identical universe of 524 underlyings, so none of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank fell to 44.0 from 45.9. The mean fell to 46.9 from 48.8 and the median percentile to 60.3, so the whole distribution moved rather than its middle.

Almost all of the fall sits in names that have finished reporting. Beiersdorf lost 47.4 points of rank, PayPal 42.0, UPS 33.5 and American Tower 27.3. Boeing lost 31.0 points on the session it fell 10.7%, which is the cleanest illustration available of what this measure does: the share price moved hard, and the event the options had been pricing was over.

By group the spread is wide. Energy carries the richest volatility, a median rank of 63.6 with 83% of its names above 50, led by Marathon Petroleum at 97.0 and Valero at 89.3. Metals are cheapest at 17.9, with 71% below 20. The index funds sit near the bottom at 21.2, which in our view may be the correlation reading showing up in a second dataset.

Across almost every group the median rank sits below the median percentile. In our view that gap may point to names that are not spiking so much as sitting quietly expensive on a sustained basis.

Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 27 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow gave one clean reading in the largest names. Long-dated calls were bought on the ask in Tesla, Meta, Alphabet and Apple, and the single largest put print was sold to open rather than bought, so a put-heavy tape need not be read as a bearish one. Away from the mega-caps the tape was unreadable: call buying in AMD printed at mid with no aggressor side, and Taiwan Semiconductor was bought on both sides of one expiry.
Sector and ETF flow leaned to hedging rather than direction. The large index premium was structured mid-market blocks whose sided legs offset, so the headline totals carry no bet. The one clean-sided sector tape was energy, where puts were bought at the offer in the oil and gas funds and in Exxon Mobil, partly financed by selling further out. Rates, risk-off, financials and metals carried no readable direction.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close, with Tuesday’s close marked inside it. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The S&P 500 began the week with 137.05 points priced around Friday’s close, 1.80%, from 7,486.63 to 7,760.73. Two sessions of five are done and Tuesday’s close at 7,722.60 has used 72% of that band upward, leaving 38 points to the top.

The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 78% of its 3.06% band, also upward, and gold 64% of 2.40%. Energy has used 47% downward and the bitcoin fund only 16%, the quietest row on the board. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month rather than a week, and sits 41% below its anchor.

Three sessions remain to absorb what is left, with the Federal Reserve still to speak. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

Today's catalysts

13:30 CET the September advance goods trade balance.
14:45 CET the Bank of Canada rate decision, then at 15:30 CET weekly US crude and product inventories.
19:00 CET the Federal Reserve decision, with Chair Warsh’s press conference at 19:30 CET.
Earnings today: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, UBS, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, KLA and FedEx.
Also today: the UK Autumn Budget, and overnight the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meetings move into view for Thursday.

Europe left summer time on Sunday and the US has not, so the cash session runs 14:30 to 21:00 CET until 1 November. The decision at 19:00 CET therefore lands two hours before the close, inside the session, and today’s expiry settles at that close.

Earnings scorecard

Five names are left to report and the spread between what is priced and what each has typically delivered runs from 1.5x to 0.7x. Apple is richest, 3.6% priced into 2 November against an eight-report average of 2.5%, and its premium rose half a point overnight. Alphabet sits at 5.5% against 4.1% and Novo Nordisk at 6.6% against 5.0%.

Microsoft is the exception, and it reports tonight. Its 4.7% sits against a 7.0% history, the only name of the five priced below what it has usually done, on a record that includes moves of 15.5% and 10.0% in the last four.

Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and Microsoft shows the gap. It carries a rank of 48 against a percentile of 73, so its volatility is unremarkable for its own year while sitting above most individual days in it. Rank describes a year. The event premium describes one evening.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: S&P 500 options price 46.40 points, 0.60%, for today’s expiry, which settles at the 21:00 CET close and so contains the decision and the first reaction to it. Read before the US open, so indicative. The one-day gauge at 12.53 implies about 0.8%, a one-sigma figure rather than an expected move, so the two do not disagree.
Event implied range: the 30 October expiry prices 88.30 points, 1.14%. Yesterday it read 104.90 with four sessions left, so decay alone would have left about 91. About 2.5 points came out beyond the clock, against 16 the day before, so on that measure the draining has nearly stopped.
Where the week is priced: today’s 0.60% against 1.14% for all three sessions leaves about 0.69% for each of Thursday and Friday, so today is the cheapest. In our view the market may see the decision as the smaller event, with Thursday holding US growth and inflation data, the European Central Bank and the reaction to tonight’s results from two of the index’s largest companies.
Correlation read: implied correlation fell for a second session to 13.49 and remains at the 94th percentile of our store. In our view the level, which has held, may matter more than the direction: at that level, a surprise in one large name is more likely to travel across the index.

In our view the two readings furthest from normal this morning, gold volatility at the 6th percentile of its year and implied correlation at the 94th of ours, are not about today. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026 Paying for the index not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026 Market Quick Take - UK Autumn Budget in focus - 28 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

AI spending refuses to slow: what SK Hynix and Broadcom reveal about the boom

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Memory remains in short supply: SK Hynix's record earnings show how AI demand continues to favour suppliers.
The money keeps flowing: Broadcom's USD 63 billion financing deal shows infrastructure expansion is far from over.
Spending is not the same as profits: investors increasingly need to distinguish beneficiaries from those financing the boom.

A volatile stock market can make artificial intelligence look like a boom losing momentum. The companies buying its infrastructure seem to disagree.

On 28 October 2026, SK Hynix reported record earnings. Two days earlier, a USD 63 billion financing package was announced to buy Broadcom chips for Anthropic. Together, they show that spending can grow even when share prices wobble. For investors, the question is who earns the profit and who carries the bill.

Memory is having its moment

South Korea's SK Hynix makes memory chips for phones, servers and AI data centres. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) feeds data quickly to powerful AI processors, including those made by Nvidia. Even the fastest processor stalls when information arrives slowly.

Third-quarter revenue climbed 328% to 104.6 trillion Korean won. Operating profit reached 83.3 trillion won, an extraordinary 80% operating margin. Agreements with 14 customers already cover more than half of planned production for 2027 and 2028.

Scarcity gives suppliers pricing power. For SK Hynix, it lifts earnings. For customers, the same shortage raises costs. And with AI infrastructure still expanding, memory is becoming just as strategically important as the processors themselves.

The money behind the machines

US chipmaker Broadcom designs specialised AI processors and networking equipment. On 26 October, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced USD 63 billion in financing to purchase Broadcom equipment for Anthropic, developer of the Claude AI assistant.

The structure matters. A separate financing vehicle will buy the hardware and lease it to Anthropic, with deliveries expected from 2027. Broadcom also provides protection to senior lenders against falling equipment values.

This is not Anthropic paying USD 63 billion upfront. It shows how financing is becoming as important as technology in sustaining the AI expansion.

The arrangement supports Broadcom's sales but also introduces financial risks. Anthropic's proposed initial public offering (IPO), filed on 26 October, will bring additional scrutiny to whether growing AI revenues can eventually justify these enormous commitments.

Risks: the bills can outlast the boom

Memory shortages will not last forever. New capacity or weaker demand could lower prices and margins. AI developers must also generate enough revenue to cover growing computing costs. And if specialised chips lose value faster than expected, supplier guarantees could prove costly.

Investor playbook

Follow pricing power: watch memory prices and long-term orders, not just impressive quarterly profit figures.
Look beyond spending: compare AI developers' revenue growth with computing commitments and cash generation.
Mind concentration: check whether portfolio holdings depend on the same AI infrastructure spending cycle.

The boom is not the return

The AI buildout does not have to stop for investors to become more selective. SK Hynix shows how shortages can translate into exceptional profits, while Broadcom shows how enormous new orders can be made possible through financing. Those are very different sources of value.

Over time, more production may ease memory shortages and lower costs for AI developers. That would help buyers but could reduce the pricing power of today's suppliers. Meanwhile, cheaper computing only creates lasting value if customers are willing to pay for the services it supports.

The question is no longer simply whether AI spending will continue. It is who will earn attractive returns once the bills come due.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings Initial Public Offering (IPO) IPO

Market Quick Take - UK Autumn Budget in focus - 28 October 2026

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 07:19:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Central banks navigate inflation and growth risks as Middle East diplomacy faces uncertainty
Equities: US equities climbed on AI strength, European markets advanced despite UK losses, Asian shares rose as Korean chipmakers surged.
Volatility: Decision day volatility jumped while the broader gauges eased before the policy announcement
Digital Assets: Tokens and the listed complex firmed while the largest corporate holder paused its buying
Commodities: Oil rebounds on geopolitical risks, gold weakens ahead of Fed as wheat hits July low
Fixed Income: Global sovereign bond yields edge higher, but high yield bonds rally.
Currencies: NZD tumbles as RBNZ forgoes expected hike. JPY and USD firm.

Macro

FOMC preview: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, following September's 25-basis-point hike. Focus will be on any signals of another increase in December, with CME FedWatch currently pricing an 82.5% probability of higher rates by year-end. Since the September meeting, economic data have pointed to further labour market weakness alongside accelerating inflation, even excluding the energy-driven surge. This leaves the Fed facing an increasingly difficult balancing act between containing inflation and supporting employment.
Diverging monetary policy outlooks in Australia and New Zealand: Australian inflation accelerated in September, with headline CPI rising to 4.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in August. Housing inflation remained elevated at 5.2%, while transport costs surged 8.7%, partly reflecting higher fuel prices. The figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to raise interest rates further. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by keeping its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, against expectations of a hike. The decision, reached by a narrow 4–3 vote, reflected concerns about global uncertainty.
Israeli election uncertainty and renewed Middle East diplomacy: Israeli exit polls suggest a tight race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, with both camps projected to secure 51 parliamentary seats, leaving the outcome uncertain. Meanwhile, markets are assessing renewed diplomatic efforts after officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian leaders. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for an end to the current "neither war nor peace" situation while reiterating Tehran's conditions for ending the conflict, including the lifting of US sanctions and an end to the naval blockade.
COT reporting to move to twice weekly from December: The CFTC announced on Tuesday plans to double the publication frequency of its widely followed Commitments of Traders (COT) report. Currently released every Friday, the report provides a snapshot of positions held the previous Tuesday across futures and options markets, covering commodities, currencies, equity indices and interest rates. From December, the CFTC plans to publish reports every Wednesday and Friday, providing traders and investors with a more up to date picture of speculative positioning and changes in market sentiment. The increased frequency should help reduce the information lag, particularly during periods of heightened volatility when positions can shift rapidly.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US Sep. Advance Goods Trade Balance
1345 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
1800 – US FOMC Rate Decision
1830 – US Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference

Earnings events

Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx
Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%, and the Dow was flat, as technology stocks led Wall Street higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. The semiconductor index surged 3.6%, its strongest gain in over a month, while Broadcom advanced 4% after a $63 billion financing deal supported plans to supply AI chips to Anthropic. However, Boeing plunged 10.7%, its worst day in six years, after disappointing earnings and delays to its aircraft production targets, while Coca-Cola slipped 1.6% despite beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook.
Europe: European equities advanced, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5%, the DAX gaining 0.7% and the CAC 40 adding 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.8% on disappointing earnings. Technology stocks led the gains, with Dutch chip equipment maker BE Semiconductor Industries surging 11.4% after Applied Materials announced plans to increase its stake. In London, HSBC dropped 5.4% following weaker-than-expected revenue. Mercedes-Benz declined 3.9% after lowering its profit guidance, highlighting continued weakness in China's car market ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision.
Asia: Asian equities advanced on Wednesday, with South Korea's Kospi surging more than 6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times Index were little changed. Korean chipmakers led the rally after SK Hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, more than seven times last year's level, driven by strong demand for AI memory chips. SK Hynix climbed more than 10% during the session, while Japanese semiconductor stocks also benefited from renewed AI optimism. Attention now turns to Samsung's earnings and results from Alphabet and Microsoft for further evidence of sustained AI demand.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Traders spent Tuesday buying protection for Wednesday's session and selling everything after it. The VIX eased to 17.52, while VIX1D rose almost a fifth to 12.53, enough to price a move of about 0.8% for the Fed session alone. Beyond today the curve lost premium across the board. Nine-day, Nasdaq and small-cap vol each fell 5% or more, and contango held out to the one-year gauge.
The midterm hump in November futures has flattened, with November and December now almost level, as the Fed, Thursday's GDP and PCE, megacap earnings and the 3 November vote merge into one block of event risk. SKEW eased and MOVE dropped below 100, so rates vol confirmed the calmer tone.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~81,010 +0.29% | ETHEREUM ~2,358 +0.50% | IBIT 45.70 +1.06% | ETHA 53.03 +1.32% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Crypto equities outran the tokens on Tuesday, led by the miners as Anthropic's IPO filing revived the AI-compute trade. Cipher Mining gained almost 10%, with IREN and Riot close to 8%. Investors are pricing their data-centre capacity more than their bitcoin exposure. Circle, Strategy and Coinbase rose between 1% and 2%, while XRP and Solana edged higher overnight.
Strategy ended a five-week buying run and instead spent USD 204.9m buying back its STRC preferred below par. That comes ahead of today's shareholder vote on daily dividends and Thursday's results. Fund flows split by asset: bitcoin ETFs took in USD 110.3m, all of it through IBIT, while ether funds shed USD 88.6m.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades higher amid reports of renewed US warnings of military strikes that could derail tentative diplomatic efforts that calmed the market on Tuesday. With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated. Ultimately, both Washington and Tehran need to agree on the way forward and that road remains elusive for now, and until credible signs of de-escalation emerge, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with a substantial risk premium embedded in prices. Focus on EIA's weekly report, Israeli election, and FOMC.
Gold trades lower after an Asia rebound to USD 4070 ran out stem with rising yields and a firmer dollar ahead of today's FOMC meeting weighing on prices. Having rebounded from key technical support around USD 3,970, the tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, with bulls taking some comfort from the latest recovery and the market's ability to defend this important level. Resistance levels to watch: USD 4070 and 4230.
Wheat: Futures extended their decline on Tuesday, with the December contract trading near a 3½-month low amid currency-related pressure and a fading Black Sea risk premium. The latest weakness followed reports that Moscow is considering proposals to secure grain shipments through the region, raising hopes of improved export flows and reduced disruption risks. December futures have fallen to around USD 6.11 per bushel, the lowest since July and down 23% from the multi-year high reached only last month.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rose Tuesday and early Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting. Bloomberg discussed an analysis of US Treasury and State Department data that noted a significant decrease in foreign purchases of US debt by nations traditionally allied with the US. Japan, for example, bought 99% less treasuries in the first eight months of this year relative to 2025. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose overnight into early Wednesday in Europe, trading up 1.6 basis points from the Tuesday close at 4.75% as the market is pricing very low odds that the Fed will hike today. The 10-year benchmark treasury yield poked back above 5.00% overnight, rising almost three basis points to just above 5.02%.
US high yield corporate bonds rallied on broad strength in risk sentiment Tuesday, with the Bloomberg index of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightening fifteen basis point to 313 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed further Tuesday and early Wednesday against the major European currencies, with the JPY a bit firmer in Wednesday’s Asian hours. EURUSD tested its recent 17-month low at 1.1113, while GBPUSD also dipped to a eight-day low well below 1.3300. USDJPY was steady just below 158.00 early Wednesday after rising Tuesday from 157.50, while EURJPY was heavy near recent cycle lows, trading around 175.50.
The RBNZ surprised market expectations by not hiking the official cash rate, it cited concerns about the darkening global outlook and the rise in bond yields possibly triggering a downturn. The decision came even as the bank raised the near-term inflation forecast. The decision shocked NZD lower, sending AUDNZD from the 1.2370 area before the meeting to as high as 1.2600 at one point before it fell back to 1.2525, still a new 13-year high. NZDUSD plunged about -1.2% to near 0.5610 after trading 0.5680 before the meeting.
EURGBP trades near17-month lows ahead of today’s Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z

One quiet session took almost a fifth out of the range the option market had priced for this week. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and three of the index’s largest results are all still inside it.

Monday’s rally did not only lift the index, it took premium out of the four sessions that follow it, and those sessions still hold a Federal Reserve decision.

MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 18.39 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.97) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.120

Today in brief

The short version. Friday’s expiry is priced at 104.90 S&P 500 points this morning, 1.37%, against 135.65 read from the same chain by the same method twenty-four hours earlier. Four sessions remain where five did, and the clock alone would have left roughly 121. About 16 points came out on top of that. The contract still contains Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the results of three of the index’s largest companies.

Markets. The S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77, up 0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 at 29,273.40, up 1.09%, after Anthropic filed to list and revived appetite for artificial intelligence names. The equal-weighted index rose 0.35%, half the cap-weighted move, because the largest names split: Tesla gained 5.21%, Nvidia 2.39% and Microsoft 1.54%, while Meta fell 1.88%, Apple 1.10% and Alphabet 1.06%. Europe closed broadly higher and Asia followed on Tuesday, the Kospi up 3.75%.

Volatility curve. The one-day gauge dropped to 10.49, into the bottom fifth of its own range, while the three-month gauge barely moved at 19.94. The ratio between them fell to 0.57 from 0.86, so a single session is now priced at little more than half a month.

Single names. On an identical 524 underlyings the median implied-volatility rank eased to 45.9 from 47.7. The fall sat in index products rather than in operating companies, and the names that gained rank have reports attached.

Flow. Monday’s positioning leans against the calm. Index puts and index volatility calls were bought outright while the cash market rallied, and downside was bought in Meta and across semiconductors. The sector, rates and commodity tapes carried no readable direction.

This week’s range. The option market priced 137.05 points around Friday’s close for the week. One session of five is complete and 39% of that band has been used, to the upside.

Earnings and catalysts. The spread between what is priced and each name’s own eight-report history runs from 1.4x at Novo Nordisk to 0.7x at Microsoft, which reports on Wednesday. Today brings US durable goods orders and consumer confidence, and the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.49% and Friday’s 1.37%. In our view the more interesting number may be the one that moved: implied correlation fell 7.00% to 13.95, off the highest reading in our store, while dispersion rose 2.95% to 38.02. The week may therefore be priced as a set of separate company events rather than as one index event, even though the macro calendar inside it has not changed. Monday’s flow, which bought index protection into the rally, argues the other way.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

Anthropic filed its listing paperwork and the artificial intelligence trade reopened. Semiconductors led, the Philadelphia index up 2.8%, and the move carried into Asia on Tuesday, where SoftBank rose around 5% and the Kospi gained more than 3% on memory demand.

Underneath the index, Monday was not one trade. Tesla rose 5.21% on a broker upgrade that pointed to a possible combination with SpaceX. Meta fell 1.88% after setting out plans to raise up to 95 billion dollars to fund its own artificial intelligence build. One name was repriced on what it might receive, the other on what it has to spend.

Away from equities, renewed Middle East diplomacy eased the crude premium and Brent traded below 115 dollars. In Brazil a surprise election result took the real down close to 9%, pulling sugar 5.6% and coffee 3.7% lower.

Market snapshot

US (Monday 26 October close): S&P 500 7,676.77, up 0.70%. Nasdaq 100 29,273.40, up 1.09%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,361.58, up 0.28%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.35%, half the cap-weighted move, because the largest names split: Tesla gained 5.21%, Nvidia 2.39% and Microsoft 1.54%, while Meta fell 1.88%, Apple 1.10% and Alphabet 1.06%. Technology gained 1.69%, while communication services fell 1.57%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.77% to 640.67, the DAX 0.91% to 25,410.84, the CAC 40 0.83% and euro-zone banks 1.27%.
Asia (Tuesday morning): the Nikkei 225 rose 1.7% and the Kospi 3.75% to 5,674.71, the Hang Seng eased 0.14% and the CSI 300 0.13%.
Commodities and rates: Brent traded below 115 and WTI near 101 on diplomacy. Gold held just above 4,030 while silver fell to an eleven-month low at 53.75, lifting the gold to silver ratio to 75.0. The two-year Treasury yield closed near 4.72% and the ten-year near 4.99%, both easing on Tuesday. Bitcoin traded near 79,638, the largest bitcoin fund at 45.22.
Market regime: neutral and choppy, the VIX at 18.39, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 150.97.

Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 27 October 2026, which carries Monday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The curve did not come down, the front of it did. Against the 105 sessions we hold back to 15 June, the nine-day gauge at 17.92 sits high in its range and the three-month at 19.94 above its 18.96 median, while the one-day gauge at 10.49 has dropped into the bottom fifth of its. One session has been taken out; the shape beyond it is intact.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.57 from 0.86, so a single session is priced at little more than half a month. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.08 from 1.05, steepening again after last week’s flattening. VXN/VIX eased to 1.43.

VIX futures. November leads at 19.120, a premium of 0.73 to spot against a flat Friday, with December just above at 19.170. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returned 19.17 and on the 16 December options 19.20, consistent across the nearest five strikes, so contract identity holds and the November hump has flattened into shallow contango.

Correlation and tails. Implied correlation fell 7.00% to 13.95, a session after printing 15.00, the highest in our store, and dispersion rose 2.95% to 38.02. SKEW eased to 150.97, above its 145.66 median, the bond gauge held at 102.20 near the top of its range and gold volatility at 23.55 near the bottom of its own.

Single-name volatility

The index measures above did the moving again, and this time the names followed a little. On an identical universe of 524 underlyings, so none of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank eased to 45.9 from 47.7. The mean was unchanged at 48.8, and the median percentile held at 64.7, so the distribution shifted rather than the whole population.

Where rank fell, it fell in index products rather than in operating companies. The Nasdaq 100 fund lost 15.1 points of rank and the communication services fund 18.4, both of which price baskets. Where rank rose, a report explains it: T-Mobile US gained 10.7 points into Wednesday’s release, Siemens Energy 20.8 and Corbion 21.8.

That split is the correlation reading in a second dataset. Premium is leaving the instruments that price the index as one object and staying in the ones that price a single company’s afternoon.

A note on what rank measures. The typical name carries a rank of 45.9 and a percentile of 64.7 at the same time. Rank says how far implied volatility sits from the extremes of its own year; percentile says how many days in that year were lower. A name whose volatility spent most of the year in a narrow band and spiked once will read low on the first and high on the second.

Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 26 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned defensive against a rising tape. Downside was bought on the ask in Meta and across semiconductors on the session the semiconductor complex rallied, while November upside was sold on the bid in Meta and Broadcom. Most of the remaining premium was paired structure and mid-market prints with no aggressor side.
Sector and ETF flow gave one clean reading and little else: index puts and index volatility calls were bought outright in the large index funds, which both the market and semiconductor reports label as hedging into an event week. Rates, risk-off, financials, metals and crypto tapes carried no readable direction.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close, with Monday’s close marked inside it. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The S&P 500 opened the week with 137.05 points priced around Friday’s close, 1.80%, from 7,486.63 to 7,760.73. Monday’s close at 7,676.77 used 39% of that band upward, leaving 84 points to the top and 190 to the bottom.

The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 36% of its 3.06% band, also upward, while the bitcoin fund has used 44% of its 3.61% band downward, the only row leaning that way. Gold has used 14% of 2.40%, energy 13% of 3.43%. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month, and sits 23% below its anchor.

What matters now is that the band itself has since been marked down, as the pricing section sets out.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

Today's catalysts

13:30 CET preliminary September durable goods orders, forecast 1.5% after a flat month.
14:00 CET the August house price index, then at 15:00 CET the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October consumer confidence, forecast 81.0 after 81.9, and new home sales.
18:00 CET the US Treasury auctions five-year notes after soft demand at the two-year sale.
Earnings today: Visa, Coca-Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing and S&P Global.
Overnight: Australian inflation, then the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins today. Europe left summer time on Sunday and the US has not, so the cash session runs 14:30 to 21:00 CET until 1 November: Wednesday’s decision at 19:00 CET sits two hours before the close, inside the session, with the press conference at 19:30.

Earnings scorecard

The spread between what is priced and what each name has done has narrowed to 1.4x at one end and 0.7x at the other. Novo Nordisk is richest, 7.1% priced into 4 November against an eight-report average of 5.0%. Microsoft is cheapest, 4.7% into Wednesday against a 7.0% history, which is the one name of the five reporting this week priced below what it has typically delivered. Alphabet sits at 5.4% against 4.1% and Amazon at 7.1% against 6.2%.

Rank and the event premium answer different questions. Amazon carries the highest rank of the group at 74 and prices 7.1%; Novo Nordisk has the lowest at 36 and the richest event premium, 1.4x its own history. Rank describes where a name’s volatility sits in its year. The event premium describes one afternoon.

Next are UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday and Apple on Monday 2 November.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: S&P 500 options price 37.80 points, 0.49%, for today’s expiry, from the at-the-money straddle on the Saxo chain centred on put-call parity. Yesterday’s edition quoted a different contract, so no like-for-like comparison applies.
Event implied range: the 30 October expiry prices 104.90 points, 1.37%. Read the same way yesterday morning it was 135.65 with five sessions left; four remain, so the clock alone would have left about 121. Roughly 16 points have come out beyond decay, and the contract still holds the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and three large results.
Correlation read: implied correlation fell 7.00% to 13.95, one session after printing the highest reading in our store at 15.00, while dispersion rose 2.95% to 38.02. In our view the market may have stopped paying for the index to move as one block and started paying for the names to separate.
Tail risk signal: SKEW at 150.97 held above its 145.66 median even as the one-day gauge collapsed. The cost of the far wing may be behaving independently of the cost of the next session.

In our view the question this morning may be whether a week can get cheaper while its calendar stays the same. The premium left the whole contract rather than one day of it, and the correlation and dispersion readings suggest the market may expect Wednesday and Thursday to be paid for name by name. Flow, which bought index protection into the rally, argues the other way. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Paying for the index not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026 Three per cent of the range one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Big Tech earnings preview: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft face the $1 trillion AI question

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending faces a reality check: investors want evidence that record infrastructure investment can generate lasting profits.
Cloud growth holds the clues: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft must demonstrate that AI demand translates into profitable business.
Expectations matter: strong earnings may disappoint if spending rises faster than cash generation.

The artificial intelligence race is becoming extraordinarily expensive. And this week, three of its biggest participants face a familiar question: when will the investment start paying off?

Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by Amazon on Thursday, 29 October, all after US markets close.

The stakes extend well beyond three quarterly reports. According to S&P Global, major cloud and technology companies are expected to invest around 763 billion USD in infrastructure in 2026, potentially rising to 1.3 trillion USD in 2027.

These are forecasts, not committed spending. Still, they illustrate an important shift. Investors already know that AI is attracting enormous investment. Now they want to understand how much profit that investment can produce.

Three companies, three different tests

The three technology giants share an ambition to become essential providers of AI infrastructure. But their businesses, growth rates and challenges differ.

Cloud revenue growth in the latest reported quarter

Source: Bloomberg. Year-on-year growth for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Microsoft: can AI growth justify the spending?

Microsoft sells business software and operates Azure, one of the world's largest cloud platforms.

Azure revenue grew 43% in the June quarter. For the upcoming quarter, management expects growth of 44% to 45% in constant currency, meaning exchange-rate movements are excluded.

Demand appears strong, but growth comes at a cost. Microsoft expects quarterly capital expenditure, or spending on long-term assets such as data centres, to exceed 50 billion USD.

The question is whether growing Azure demand and paid adoption of tools such as Microsoft 365 Copilot can offset the rising costs of delivering AI services.

Alphabet: can cloud profits catch up with growth?

Alphabet owns Google, whose businesses include Search, YouTube and Google Cloud.

Google Cloud revenue surged 82% in the June quarter, making it the fastest-growing of the three cloud businesses. Investors will now watch whether operating profits can keep pace as the company adds expensive computing capacity.

Alphabet also faces a second challenge. AI-powered search could encourage more searches and new advertising opportunities, but it could also change how users interact with traditional advertisements.

For Alphabet, the test is therefore twofold: turn cloud growth into stronger profits while protecting the advertising business that helps finance its AI ambitions.

Amazon: where is the cash?

Amazon combines its global retail platform with Amazon Web Services (AWS), the cloud business that provides much of its operating profit.

AWS revenue grew 37% in the June quarter, its fastest expansion in several years. Yet Amazon's free cash flow, the money remaining after operating expenses and investments, was negative 7.6 billion USD over the preceding 12 months.

This does not necessarily signal a struggling business. Amazon generated substantial operating cash, but infrastructure investments absorbed even more.

For investors, the distinction matters. Growing revenue is encouraging. Growing profits are better. Eventually, those profits also need to translate into cash.

The trillion-dollar question is about returns, not revenue

AI infrastructure is expensive to build, but potentially profitable to operate once customers start using it.

The difficulty is timing. Companies spend billions on chips, buildings and electricity connections today, while the revenue they hope to generate may arrive over several years.

This creates an important distinction between earnings and cash generation.

A company can report excellent profits while spending more cash than it produces. Equally, negative free cash flow during an investment phase does not automatically indicate poor long-term returns.

For shareholders, the key is whether future profits eventually justify today's spending.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis.

Valuations add another layer. When share prices already reflect ambitious growth expectations, companies have less room for disappointment.

That means even impressive quarterly results might trigger a negative market reaction if management raises spending forecasts without offering convincing evidence of future returns.

Risks: when growth becomes expensive

Three risks deserve particular attention.

First, AI demand could grow more slowly than the infrastructure built to serve it, leaving companies with underused capacity.

Second, competition could push down prices for computing services, limiting profitability even as customer adoption increases.

Third, rising electricity, financing and equipment costs could prolong the period before investments generate meaningful cash returns.

The early warning signs include slowing cloud growth, declining margins and repeated increases in spending forecasts.

Investor playbook: look beyond the earnings headline

Compare growth with profitability. Faster cloud revenue growth is more valuable when operating margins remain healthy.
Follow the cash. Track whether free cash flow improves as earlier investments begin generating revenue.
Watch spending guidance. Rising investment is easier to justify when expected demand and returns rise alongside it.
Check portfolio concentration. Several technology holdings may depend on the same AI investment cycle.

The bill is arriving. Will the profits follow?

For much of the AI boom, investors have focused on how quickly companies could build bigger, faster and more powerful computing systems. That remains important, but the next chapter looks increasingly financial.

Microsoft must show that growing AI adoption supports its expanding infrastructure. Alphabet needs to translate exceptional cloud growth into sustainable profits while protecting Search. Amazon must demonstrate that substantial investments can eventually generate more cash.

None of these questions will be settled by one earnings report. And spending heavily today is not necessarily a mistake if the eventual returns justify it.

The AI opportunity is becoming easier to see. The cost of pursuing it is also becoming harder to ignore. Ultimately, shareholders do not earn returns from how much companies spend, but from what that spending produces.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Amazon.com Alphabet Microsoft Corp. Microsoft

UBS reports on Wednesday: two ways to name your price while Bern decides

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 07:55:00 Z

UBS reports third-quarter results on 28 October 2026 while Swiss lawmakers are still deciding how much capital the bank must hold. One investor wants to buy lower, another already owns the shares. How can each name a price and be paid to wait?

Results day brings the numbers. This quarter, Swiss politics may matter just as much.

UBS publishes its third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday 28 October 2026, with the documents out at 06:45 CET, before the Swiss and US markets open. Analysts expect earnings of about USD 0.91 a share (UBS reports in US dollars). The Swiss-listed shares (SIX) traded at about CHF 38.57 on 26 October 2026. (Sources: UBS, Reuters/LSEG, Saxo, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)

The shares have been held back by a question that is not about this quarter. On 23 September 2026, the Swiss upper house voted to make UBS back the value of its foreign subsidiaries with much more of its highest-quality capital than today, and UBS has said the change would be too tight (Source: UBS statement, 23 September 2026). The lower house is next, and lawmakers are expected to take until next year to finish. For an investor who holds UBS, or is thinking about it, options can add structure to a view already held.

UBS share price on the Swiss line with the two example strikes and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:48 CET.

How big a move do the options point to?

Option prices give a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. Add the price of the call and the put at the strike closest to the share price. For the 20 November expiry, that points to a move of about 6.2% in either direction. The figure covers every day until expiry, not only results day, so it is not a one-day estimate. The figures are in the box below.

38.50 strike: call 1.235 + put 1.17 = 2.405
39 strike: call 0.985 + put 1.41 = 2.395
Blend at the share price of CHF 38.57: about CHF 2.40, or 6.2%, which gives a rough range of CHF 36.17 to CHF 40.97
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET; author calculation. Mid prices, rounded)

Recent results days show how different the outcomes can be. On 4 February 2026 the shares closed 6.3% lower. On 29 April 2026 they rose as much as 5.9% early in the session and finished the day 3.2% higher (Source: Saxo price data, SIX closing prices). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Why 20 November and not the week after the report

UBS reports on Wednesday 28 October 2026, but the first listed expiry after that is Friday 20 November 2026. There is no weekly option on 30 October. So these examples carry more than the report: they also carry three weeks of news from Bern. The options are the Eurex contracts on the Swiss-listed shares, the line most Saxo clients hold. Each contract covers 100 shares and is priced in Swiss francs. Strikes are listed in steps of CHF 0.50, so the examples sit at the nearest listed strike beyond each edge of the range.

What happens to the premium after the report

Part of every UBS option’s price right now is a payment for the uncertainty around the report. Once the numbers are out, that part usually shrinks, even if the share price barely moves. Traders call this IV crush: implied volatility, the market’s expected size of moves, falls. The seller of an option collects that extra payment up front and carries the risk of a big move. Time decay (theta, the small amount an option loses each day) also works for the seller. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses; options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

The buyer-in-waiting: a cash-secured put at 36

Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 shares at the strike if UBS is below it at expiry, in exchange for a premium collected today, with the cash set aside. The view behind it: UBS is worth owning, but the investor would rather pay less, and the capital debate could still push the shares down first.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 UBS 20 November 2026 36 put at a limit price of CHF 0.40 (inside the quoted bid and ask), with UBS at CHF 38.57
Cash set aside: CHF 3,600
Premium received: CHF 40 (0.40 x 100)
Purchase price if assigned: CHF 36 less the premium, CHF 35.60, which is 7.7% below the share price
Maximum risk: CHF 3,560 (CHF 3,600 less the premium, hypothetical), if UBS fell to zero; maximum profit: the CHF 40 premium (hypothetical)
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)

The risk comes first: below the purchase price the loss grows franc for franc, as for any shareholder, and the premium is the whole upside however far UBS rallies. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

Why 36: it is the listed strike just below the lower edge of the rough range, so a move of the expected size would not take UBS under it. A fall like February’s would bring the shares to about CHF 36.16, just above the strike, so the put would sit on the edge of assignment. A worse outcome in Bern could take them through. The premium is also small, and the gap between bid and ask is CHF 0.09, a large share of it.

The 36 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:50 CET.

The holder with a price in mind: a covered call at 41

Selling a covered call means agreeing to sell 100 shares you own at the strike if UBS is above it at expiry, for a premium collected today. The view behind it: the holder would be content to sell part of the position about 7% higher, and expects any relief from Bern to arrive slowly.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Own 100 UBS shares; sell 1 UBS 20 November 2026 41 call at a limit price of CHF 0.32 (inside the quoted bid and ask), with UBS at CHF 38.57
Premium received: CHF 32 (0.32 x 100), about 0.8% of the CHF 3,857 share value
Effective sale price if assigned: CHF 41 plus the premium, CHF 41.32
Maximum risk: CHF 3,825 (the share value less the premium, hypothetical), if UBS fell to zero; maximum profit: CHF 275 (CHF 243 of gain up to 41 plus the CHF 32 premium, hypothetical)
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)

The risk comes first: the investor keeps the full downside of owning the shares. The premium offsets only a small part of it, and it does not protect against a large decline. A fall like February’s would cost roughly CHF 240 on 100 shares, against a premium of CHF 32. Upside above the strike is given away until expiry. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

Why 41: it is the listed strike just above the upper edge of the rough range. A rise like April’s early move would bring UBS to about CHF 40.85, short of the strike.

The 41 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, so it reports unlimited risk; held against 100 UBS shares, a rise above 41 is covered by the shares, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:52 CET.

When to leave it alone

Both examples assume the investor is happy to own UBS. Someone who expects the capital rules to stay tough for a long time may feel a small premium does not pay enough for buying into a falling share, and may prefer to wait.

The opposite case matters too. If lawmakers settle on a gentler rule, the shares could jump, and the covered call would give part of that jump away. Doing nothing is a valid answer. Results day and the political calendar can both surprise.

Before placing the trade, check:

Bid and ask spreads, and whether the strike has open interest or recent trading; selling at the bid gives up part of the premium
The expiry: confirm it is Friday 20 November 2026 and that the strike you want is listed, as not every strike or week is available
The report timing: documents at 06:45 CET on 28 October 2026, so the first reaction comes before the US open
Commission, charged per contract and larger in proportion on a small premium
Whether the cash is genuinely set aside; "cash-secured" is a discipline the investor applies, and the platform’s margin requirement may be lower
An exit plan, decided before the report

Assignment risk note: UBS options are American-style, so a short option can be assigned before expiry if it moves in the money. Settlement is by physical delivery of the shares. Only the seller of an option faces assignment risk.

Where this leaves the two investors

The two examples are one idea from either side of the holding: the put seller names a lower price to buy at, the call seller a higher price to sell at, and both are paid for the uncertainty. Either can be closed before expiry if the view changes.

Neither removes the size of the move. In our view, selling an option into this report suits only an investor who would be comfortable owning, or still owning, UBS after a day like 4 February 2026. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Related articles/content
Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere \| 23 Oct 2026 CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries \| 21 Oct 2026 Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 20 Oct 2026 SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 16 Oct 2026 Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener \| 18 Sep 2026 What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 -- Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

Related articles/content

Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere | 23 Oct 2026
CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries | 21 Oct 2026
Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 20 Oct 2026
SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 16 Oct 2026

Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener | 18 Sep 2026

What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version | 9 April 2026
Trading earnings with defined | 31 Mar 2026
--
Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026
Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles Theme - Crypto and blockchain ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 07:32:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Five central banks meeting over coming days, led by FOMC Wednesday.
Equities: Global equities rebounded as renewed AI optimism lifted US and European stocks on Monday, with Asian markets following higher on Tuesday.
Volatility: Near-dated equity volatility collapsed while the longer gauges eased into the central bank decision
Digital Assets: Tokens and the listed crypto complex slipped while federal stablecoin rules were finalised
Commodities: Oil eases on diplomatic hopes, gold remains cautious ahead of Fed, while Brazilian crops tumble
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields steady. France’s long-dated OAT’s rally.
Currencies: USD firms, Euro weakens slightly.

Macro

Five G10 central banks are set to meet over the next few days, with the RBNZ announcing its rate decision (market looking for a hike) in very early hours Wednesday. Also tomorrow, the Bank of Canada (market also looking for a hike) and FOMC (a pause widely expected) meet, while the ECB meets Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday. For the last two central banks, the market is looking for a pause in the hiking cycle and guidance on what the December meetings will bring.
Renewed Middle East diplomacy is seeking to avert wider US‑Iran escalation, with Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials meeting Iranian leaders to revive talks and prevent further US‑Israeli strikes. The effort comes before US midterms, as Trump hints strikes could resume. Ongoing clashes involving Saudi-led forces, Iran-backed Houthis, and Hezbollah keep regional oil supplies at risk despite crude flows returning to near prewar levels.
Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.7% y/y in September, up from a revised 3.5% and the highest since June 2024, led by transport and postal, leasing and rental, and other services; advertising prices fell. Month-on-month, the index gained 0.3%, its third straight rise.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September from -0.08, as production and sales/orders/inventories improved, employment was neutral, and consumption and housing weakened. The three‑month average ticked up to +0.03.
UK shop price inflation rose to 2.1% y/y in October from 1.4%, the fastest since February 2024 and above the 1.6% forecast. Food inflation climbed to 2.9%, ambient food to 3.2%, fresh food stayed at 2.6%, and non‑food rose to 1.7%. The BRC flagged rising costs for retailers. Separately, UK CPI reached 3.5% in September, an 11‑month high.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for 4 weeks ending Oct 10
1230 – US Preliminary Sep. Durable Goods Orders
1300 – US Aug. Home Price Index
1400 – US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
1400 – US Oct. Consumer Confidence
1400 – US Sep. New Home Sales
1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes
0030 – Australia Sep. CPI
0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate announcement

Earnings events

Tuesday: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx
Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.1% on Monday, snapping a two-session losing streak as Anthropic's IPO filing revived appetite for artificial intelligence stocks. Semiconductor shares led the recovery, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.8% and Nvidia rising 2.4% on renewed optimism about AI demand. Tesla jumped 5.2% after a Barclays upgrade highlighted potential benefits from a SpaceX merger, while Meta slipped 1.9% after unveiling plans to raise up to $95 billion to fund AI infrastructure. Investors now turn to the Federal Reserve's rate decision and earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% on Monday, while Germany's DAX rose 0.9% and the UK's FTSE 100 added 0.7%, as upbeat corporate updates and stronger German business confidence supported a broad recovery. Computacenter surged 13.1% after lifting its full-year profit forecast on strong technology demand, while Denmark's Genmab jumped 12.1% after encouraging mid-stage cancer-treatment trial results. Rolls-Royce climbed 6.1% as defence stocks rallied on expectations of additional UK military spending, while energy shares lagged as oil prices eased. Elsewhere, Frasers Group secured a controlling 50.1% stake in Hugo Boss, ahead of a busy week of central-bank decisions and corporate earnings.
Asia: Asian equities advanced on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.7% and South Korea's Kospi surging more than 3%, as renewed AI optimism lifted regional semiconductor stocks. SoftBank Group climbed around 5% on improving AI sentiment, while Tokyo Electron rose 3.1% as investors returned to chipmaking equipment suppliers. In South Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the rebound on expectations of stronger AI memory-chip demand, while speculation about additional shareholder returns offered further support to SK Hynix. Hong Kong shares traded lower, highlighting a mixed regional recovery, as investors awaited earnings from major Korean chipmakers and US technology companies.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

The VIX fell 5.45% to 18.39 on Monday, back to the middle of last week's range, as traders pulled risk out of today and concentrated it on Wednesday's Fed decision. VIX1D lost more than a third of its value and VVIX fell 7.5%, so demand for short-dated protection has thinned.
The curve stays in contango from VIX9D at 17.92 to VIX3M at 19.94. The midterm hump in November futures has largely flattened as the Fed, GDP, megacap earnings and the 3 November vote merge into one block of event risk. SKEW eased while dispersion rose, which points to single-stock earnings moves rather than an index-wide shock. MOVE slipped 1.1%, as rates vol confirmed the easing.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~79,638 -0.50% | ETHEREUM ~2,309 -0.52% | IBIT 45.22 -1.61% | ETHA 52.34 -3.22% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Bitcoin trades just under $80,000 after an overnight low of $79,250, with Ether near $2,315 and XRP and Solana each 0.84% lower. Deribit's DVOL eased 0.65% to 38.31 despite weekend long liquidations of $400 million to $810 million depending on the provider.
Crypto equities fell harder than the tokens: Circle dropped 7.07%, Bitmine 6.47%, Strategy 4.24% and Coinbase 2.95%, while IREN gained 2.11%. Strategy bought no bitcoin last week and directed $204.9 million to preferred buybacks.
The OCC issued its final GENIUS Act rule for stablecoin issuers on 21 October, effective 18 January 2027, requiring full reserves at all times and keeping the ban on paying yield. Bitcoin support sits at $78,000.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades softer, currently below USD 115, amid hopes that diplomacy may avert a renewed escalation in the US-Iran war, following visits to Tehran by officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey for discussions. However, a more sustained decline in prices would likely require credible signals from all sides that tensions are easing, alongside tangible progress towards restoring the free movement of oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Upcoming elections in the US and Israel add another layer of uncertainty, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts and keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.
Gold trades nervously just above USD 4,000 as traders await Wednesday's FOMC meeting and interest rate decision. Meanwhile, continued weakness in silver is weighing on sentiment across precious metals and complicating recovery attempts. Silver has fallen to an 11-month low, while the gold-silver ratio is showing signs of an upside breakout, currently trading near 75.7, highlighting silver's relative underperformance. For now, gold's direction remains closely linked to broader risk sentiment, with particular focus on equity markets, bond yields and the dollar. A sustained recovery may require an improvement in these broader market conditions.
Agriculture: Monday's near 9% slump in the Brazilian real following the surprise election result triggered selling across several of the country's major agricultural commodities traded in US dollar-denominated futures, including coffee, sugar, cotton and soybeans. A weaker real increases the local-currency value of dollar-denominated export revenues, potentially encouraging Brazilian producers to accelerate sales while improving the competitiveness of their products in global markets. This matters given Brazil's dominant position in agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, sugar, coffee and cotton. Sugar, where hedge funds had built their largest net long position in five years as recently as last week, tumbled 5.6%, highlighting the risk of long liquidation when positioning becomes crowded. Coffee fell 3.7%, while soybeans ended the session down 1.3%.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields were steady ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and after an auction of 2-year treasury notes that saw slightly soft demand. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose three basis points Monday to close near 4.72% before easing back to 4.70% in early trading Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield was steady Monday near 4.99% before falling slightly in early hours Tuesday to below 4.97%.
France’s long-dated OAT’s rallied strongly Monday, with the benchmark 10-year OAT yield falling nearly 12 basis points to 4.90%, while the 30-year yield fell 10 basis points to 5.28%. The Germany-France sovereign yield spread tightened 14 basis points to 153.5 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed Monday, especially versus a softer euro, which failed to find support on the strong bid for French sovereign debt Monday. EURUSD traded back to 1.1165 by early Tuesday as the 1.1200 area finally lost its grip after the pair traded near that level for more than a week. The next level lower is the 17-month low from two weeks ago at 1.1113.
USDJPY rebounded Monday, trading back above 157.50 after its probe as low as 156.08 on Friday, but the JPY was steady in other crosses as yen traders await the FOMC tomorrow and the BoJ meeting Friday, where no hike is expected and the market is awaiting guidance on the decision for the December meeting, where expectations strongly favour a hike.
EURNOK continues to hit new cycle lows, trading near 10.40 early Tuesday as European gas prices have risen to new highs since late 2022 this week.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Paying for the index, not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z

Implied correlation closed at its highest since June while dispersion sat on its median. The option market has decided this week moves as one block, and it has four sessions to be proved right.

Almost every gauge on the volatility board is high against its own three months, and the one sitting at a fresh high is the one that prices the index moving as a block.

MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 19.45 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.80) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.450

Today in brief

The short version. Implied correlation closed Friday at 15.00, above every reading in our store back to mid-June, while dispersion sat at 36.93, its median. Those two move against each other by construction, and this is what it looks like when the option market pays for the index rather than for the names inside it. The week ahead explains the bid: a Federal Reserve decision, third-quarter growth, the September inflation deflator and three of the index’s largest companies, all in four sessions.

Markets. The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68, down 0.52%, and the Dow lost 1.24% while the Nasdaq 100 finished unchanged at 28,957.53. The equal-weighted index fell 0.78%, so a narrow group held the cap-weighted version up. Energy rose 2.60% and technology 0.49%; communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and industrials all fell more than a per cent. Oil carried the session, Brent settling at 116.72 on Gulf supply risk before reversing to near 114 this morning. The ten-year Treasury yield closed at 4.999% and has eased since.

Volatility curve. The cash curve held its contango, the one-day gauge gaining 10.74% to 16.81 against a flat nine-day at 18.70 and a one-year at 22.82. Oil volatility made the largest single move, up 7.87% to 60.02. The bond gauge fell 3.30% to 103.32 and vol-of-vol rose to 109.70, within a quarter of a point of its highest reading in the store.

Single names. Almost nothing happened. On an identical 524 underlyings the median implied-volatility rank moved to 47.7 from 47.1. What movement there was sat in names with events attached, not in the population.

Flow. Friday’s ten reports gave no readable direction. The one line with a clear side was index put protection bought ahead of this week.

This week’s range. The option market prices 137.05 points, 1.80%, for the S&P 500 into Friday’s expiry, about 15% wider than the band priced a week ago. The week has not opened, so none of it has been used.

Earnings and catalysts. The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from 1.5x at Novartis to 0.4x at Apple. Today brings the German IFO survey and two second-tier US activity readings. The Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada all decide on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.78% and Friday’s 1.78%. Friday’s is the one that matters: the first contract in three weeks whose window contains a Federal Reserve decision. In our view the correlation reading may say more about how the market expects that week to be paid for than the level of the VIX does.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

Oil set the tone and the Federal Reserve set the clock. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure continued through the weekend and Riyadh’s main airport reopened after a two-week shutdown, while the US administration signalled it was close to deciding whether to strike Iran or pursue a deal. Brent settled at 116.72 on Friday, its highest in six months, and the oil volatility gauge rose 7.87% to 60.02.

Equities took the inflation implication rather than the geopolitics. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% and the Dow 1.24%, with ExxonMobil up 2.8% against American Express down 3.7%. The semiconductor index recovered 0.4% after Thursday’s selloff.

By Monday morning the oil move had partly reversed, Brent trading near 114 on hopes of de-escalation. What has not reversed is the calendar: five central banks and three of the index’s largest constituents report inside the next four sessions.

Market snapshot

US (Friday 23 October close): S&P 500 7,623.68, down 0.52%. Nasdaq 100 28,957.53, unchanged. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,220.21, down 1.24%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.78%. Energy rose 2.60%, software 1.72% and semiconductors 0.74%, while communication services fell 1.78%, consumer discretionary 1.66% and financials 1.32%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 eased 0.31% to 635.78, the DAX 0.75% to 25,181.65 and the CAC 40 0.36%. Kering fell 16.6% on weak Gucci sales, Volvo Cars 24.2% and Safran 10%, while L’Oreal rose 5.6%.
Asia (Monday morning): the Nikkei 225 closed 0.8% lower and the Kospi fell 0.87% to 5,502.17, while the Hang Seng held near flat at 23,193.94 and the CSI 300 eased 0.54%.
Commodities and rates: Brent settled at 116.72 and WTI near 103, both reversing lower this morning. Gold holds above 4,000 after a weekly fall of more than 4%, its largest since June, with the gold fund down 0.65% on Friday. The ten-year Treasury yield closed at 4.999%, the two-year at 4.69% and the thirty-year at 5.296%, each easing this morning. Bitcoin traded near 79,400 and the largest bitcoin fund closed at 45.96.
Market regime: neutral and choppy, the VIX at 19.45, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 151.80.

All figures from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 26 October 2026, which carries Friday’s US closes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The board is high nearly everywhere. Against the 102 sessions we hold back to 15 June, the VIX at 19.45 sits in the top fifth of its range, the Nasdaq gauge at 28.30 and the bond gauge at 103.32 in the top quarter, and vol-of-vol at 109.70 within a quarter-point of its highest reading in the store. The day’s move was narrower: oil volatility rose 7.87% to 60.02 while equity gauges barely shifted.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.86, so a single session is priced close to a month. VIX3M/VIX holds at 1.05, the curve upward sloping. VXN/VIX eased to 1.46 from 1.51.

VIX futures. The front contract is November. It closed Friday at 19.615, a premium of 0.165 to spot, with December beneath it at 19.495, so the first two futures sit in slight backwardation while the cash curve does not. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returned a forward of 19.53 this morning, consistent across the five strikes nearest the money, so the series has not rolled and the comparison holds.

Correlation and tails. Implied correlation rose 3.02% to 15.00, above the 14.56 high set the session before and well clear of the 10.22 median. Dispersion fell 2.30% to 36.93, its median. SKEW eased to 151.80 and gold volatility rose 0.79% to 24.34.

Single-name volatility

The index measures above moved while the names inside them did not. On an identical universe of 524 underlyings, so no part of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank rose to 47.7 from 47.1. The share of names above rank 50 eased to 45.0% from 45.8% and the share below rank 20 rose to 9.5% from 8.8%. The typical name therefore sits just below the midpoint of its own year, and spent Friday staying there.

Where rank did move, an event explains it in both directions. Kering lost 33.6 points of rank after reporting, the ordinary collapse of event premium once the event has passed, on the same session its shares fell 16.6%. Linde gained 18.5 points into a report due Thursday. That pairing is the week in miniature: rank drains out of the names that have reported and builds in the ones that have not.

A note on what rank measures. A high rank says a name’s implied volatility sits far from the extremes of its own year. It does not say how many days in that year looked like today, which is what a percentile answers, and the two can disagree sharply for a name whose volatility has spent most of the year in a narrow band.

Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 23 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the large lines were rolls, paired packages and mid-market prints with no aggressor side, and the premium split is a structural artefact rather than a view.
Sector and ETF flow was unreadable on the same test, with one exception worth naming: index put protection was bought outright ahead of this week’s decisions and results, which is the only large line in the set with a confirmed side.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close. The week has not opened, so no marker has moved. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The S&P 500 begins with 137.05 points priced around Friday’s close, 1.80%, from 7,486.63 to 7,760.73, nearest strikes 7485 and 7760. That is about 15% wider than a week ago’s 119.13.

The width has an obvious cause: this is the first weekly band in three weeks whose expiry sits after a Federal Reserve decision rather than before one. Last week’s stopped five days short of it. Friday’s pays for the decision, Thursday’s releases and three large results.

The Nasdaq 100 fund is priced for 3.06%, energy 3.43%, gold 2.40% and the bitcoin fund 3.61%. The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month, not a week.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

Today's catalysts

10:00 CET German October IFO business climate survey.
13:30 CET US September Chicago Fed national activity index, before the cash open.
15:30 CET US October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, then a two-year Treasury note auction at 18:00.
Earnings today: Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems and Nucor.

One clock note for this week. The US has not yet left summer time while Europe did on Sunday, so the gap is five hours rather than six: the US cash session runs 14:30 to 21:00 CET until 1 November. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision at 19:00 CET therefore lands two hours before the close, inside the session, with the press conference at 19:30.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether a move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from 1.5x to 0.4x. Novartis is richest at 3.2% into Tuesday against an eight-report average of 2.1%; Apple cheapest at 1.0% against 2.5%. Alphabet sits at 5.2% against 4.1%, Amazon at 7.1% against 6.2%, and Microsoft at 4.6% against a 7.0% history, the only one of those below what it has typically done.

Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and this board separates them. Amazon carries a rank of 71 and prices 7.1%; Apple sits at 61 and prices 1.0%. Nearly the same position in the year, seven times the move for one day. Rank describes a year; the event premium an afternoon.

Meta is the completed example: priced at 6.7%, it moved 7.0%. Next are Novartis on Tuesday, UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, Amazon Thursday.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: SPX options price 59 points, 0.78%, for today’s expiry, derived from the at-the-money straddle on the Saxo chain and centred on put-call parity. No recent edition quoted this contract, so there is no like-for-like comparison to draw.
Event implied range: the 30 October expiry prices 136 points, 1.78%, covering Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, Thursday’s growth and inflation releases and three large results. Read from the same chain and method at Friday’s close, the same contract was 137.05. Five sessions remained then and five remain now, so decay accounts for none of the difference and a little volatility has come out of the week.
Correlation read: implied correlation at 15.00 is above every reading in our store back to 15 June, while dispersion at 36.93 sits on its median. In our view the market may be paying for the index to move as one rather than for the names to separate, which is the shape a macro week tends to take.
Tail risk signal: SKEW at 151.80 sits above its 144.69 median with the VIX in the top fifth of its own range. Both can be read as the cost of carrying the week rather than a view on its direction.

In our view the useful contrast this morning may be between a volatility board that is broadly elevated and a single-name surface that is not. The index is where the week is being priced, and the names inside it have largely been left alone. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Three per cent of the range one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026 The markdown was all in the wings - Options Brief - 22 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Chipmakers tumble and the ten-year drops below 5 - 23 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

European banks face a double test: earnings season meets the Fed and ECB

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Higher rates are a double-edged sword: they support lending income but can hurt bond portfolios and borrowers.
Strong profits are only half the story: earnings will test lending margins, credit quality and the outlook for 2027.
Cheap does not always mean attractive: sustainable profitability, strong balance sheets and sensible valuations matter more than ever.

European banks have enjoyed a remarkable comeback, helped by higher interest rates, stronger profits and generous shareholder payouts. But the relationship between banks and interest rates is becoming more complicated.

This week offers an important test.

The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, 29 October. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, while some of Europe's largest banks publish their third-quarter earnings.

The timing matters. European banking shares have recently come under pressure, particularly in France, as rising government borrowing costs revive concerns about financial stability.

The paradox is simple: the same higher interest rates that helped banks earn more money could now become one of their biggest risks.

When higher rates stop being your best friend

Banks have a relatively straightforward business model. They collect deposits, lend money and generally earn more on loans than they pay depositors.

When central banks raise rates, banks can often charge borrowers more without immediately increasing the interest paid on deposits. This difference, known as the net interest margin, can improve profitability.

That has been an important driver of Europe's banking recovery.

In September, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, while the Fed lifted its benchmark range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

But higher rates are not always good news.

First, depositors eventually demand better returns, increasing banks' funding costs. Second, expensive mortgages and business loans can discourage borrowing or make existing debts harder to repay.

There is also a third problem: government bonds.

When bond yields rise, existing bonds generally lose market value. Banks holding large government bond portfolios may face losses, pressure on their financial strength or higher funding costs. Some accounting rules allow them to avoid recognising temporary market losses immediately, but that does not eliminate the underlying risk.

This distinction matters. The ECB directly influences euro-area lending conditions, while the Fed affects international funding costs and global financial markets.

For investors, the question is no longer simply whether interest rates rise or fall, but whether a bank can remain profitable across different interest-rate environments.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis.

Earnings season: look beyond the headline profits

The coming days offer a useful comparison between different banking models.

HSBC reports on 27 October, followed by BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Banco Santander and UBS on 28 October. ING, Société Générale, BBVA and Danske Bank follow on 29 October, with Crédit Agricole and NatWest scheduled for 30 October. Italian lenders Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit report on 3 and 9 November, respectively.

Each provides a different perspective. HSBC offers insight into Asian markets and wealth management. Deutsche Bank reflects investment banking conditions, while Santander and BBVA operate across several economies.

But perhaps the most interesting case comes from Switzerland.

Following Credit Suisse's collapse in 2023 and its takeover by UBS, the Swiss government wants stricter capital requirements to prevent another banking crisis. The objective is straightforward: make banks hold larger financial cushions to absorb potential losses.

UBS, however, argues that the proposed rules would make it less competitive internationally. Its chairman has warned that excessively strict requirements could force the bank to reconsider its future in Switzerland.

The dispute now extends beyond shareholders. On 25 October, the Swiss Bank Employees Association warned that up to 12,000 of UBS's roughly 34,000 Swiss jobs could be at risk in a worst-case scenario involving relocation, a sale or a merger. These are potential losses, not announced redundancies.

UBS's Wednesday earnings therefore offer another important question: how much can tougher regulation affect a bank's future profitability and shareholder returns?

This is relevant well beyond Switzerland. Stronger capital buffers make banks safer, but holding more capital can also reduce the returns they generate for shareholders.

Ultimately, investors need to look beyond whether earnings beat expectations. Are lending margins holding up? Are more customers struggling to repay debts? Can banks continue paying dividends without weakening their financial strength?

A bank reporting record profits while its borrowers become less reliable may be less attractive than one delivering modest but sustainable growth.

Cheap banks or expensive problems?

Valuations make the story particularly interesting.

The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index trades at approximately 11.4 times expected earnings and 1.5 times book value, compared with 14.6 times expected earnings for the broader European market.

Book value represents a bank's assets minus its liabilities. Paying 1.5 times book value means paying EUR 1.50 for every EUR 1 of accounting equity.

French lenders appear particularly inexpensive. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole traded below eight times estimated earnings at the beginning of October, versus a median of 10.3 times for 20 major European banks.

Yet the discount reflects genuine concerns about French public finances, political uncertainty and government borrowing costs.

Banks today generally have stronger capital buffers and better supervision than during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. Nevertheless, their exposure to government debt remains important.

For investors, valuation only becomes meaningful when compared with sustainable profitability. A bank consistently earning attractive returns on shareholders' capital may deserve a higher valuation. Another generating unusually strong profits during favourable conditions might look cheap just before earnings weaken.

Risks: what could go wrong?

Three risks deserve attention.

A prolonged rise in government bond yields could put additional pressure on bank balance sheets, especially in countries facing fiscal uncertainty. Rising deposit costs could squeeze lending margins, while weaker economic growth could increase loan defaults.

The early warning signs include widening gaps between government bond yields, declining net interest margins and rising credit losses.

Investor playbook: a simple banking health check

Track lending profitability: compare net interest income with deposit costs, rather than focusing exclusively on headline earnings.
Watch credit quality: rising loan defaults alongside weakening economic growth can signal future pressure on profits.
Compare price with profitability: assess valuations alongside sustainable return on equity, not just current earnings.
Examine shareholder payouts: dividends and buybacks matter most when supported by healthy capital buffers and resilient profits.

The most valuable asset is resilience

European banks do not necessarily need interest rates to rise further to remain attractive investments. Nor would falling rates automatically make them worse businesses.

What matters is their ability to generate sustainable returns while managing the risks that come with lending money, holding bonds and financing economic activity.

This earnings season offers an opportunity to distinguish banks benefiting from favourable conditions from those with genuinely durable earning power.

The recent sell-off may have created more interesting valuations, but lower prices alone do not guarantee better long-term returns.

Ultimately, the best banking businesses are not necessarily those making the most money when conditions are favourable. They are those that continue making money when conditions change.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Central Banks Banks

COT update: Crowded dollar longs contrast with six weeks of commodity selling

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 08:00:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Key points:

The Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
Forex: Speculative dollar longs versus eight IMM futures remain historically elevated, but the lack of a sustained rally raises the risk of a positioning-driven reversal.
Commodities: Six consecutive weeks of net selling have accompanied an 8% decline in the BCOM Index, with liquidation concentrated in natural gas, metals and grains.
Energy and metals: The Henry Hub natural gas net short reached a 2½-year high, while silver's net long slumped to a 32-month low
Grains and softs: The combined grains net long has fallen 42% in four weeks, while sugar bucks the broader selling trend, with speculative longs reaching a fresh five-year high.

Forex

In the latest reporting week to 20 October, a 0.4% decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) helped trigger modest broad-based net dollar selling, particularly against GBP, JPY and CAD. The exceptions were AUD and NZD, which continued to attract selling.

Overall, the speculative gross dollar long was reduced by 11% to USD 40 billion but remains historically elevated. Despite this heavy positioning, the dollar has struggled to rally, raising questions about the strength of the underlying bullish conviction. Crowded positioning increases the risk of a sharp reversal should the macroeconomic outlook shift, potentially triggering an accelerated unwind of long dollar positions.

Admittedly, the headline may be somewhat misleading, as the COT report captures only a fraction of the overall foreign exchange market, focusing on futures positioning rather than the much larger spot and OTC markets. Nevertheless, it remains a useful indicator of speculative sentiment and broader market behaviour towards the dollar, particularly when positioning becomes as one-sided as it is today.

Key markets to watch: Crude oil, Treasury yields and AI-related equities. Together, they may determine whether the dollar finds additional support from renewed inflation and risk aversion, or whether falling yields and an unwinding of crowded trades trigger a broader correction.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Commodities

The latest COT report on commodities, covering the week to 20 October, showed net selling extending into a sixth consecutive week, during which the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) has fallen by 8%. The continued reduction in speculative exposure highlights a broader shift in sentiment, with funds cutting positions across several key sectors amid increased market volatility and weakening technical signals. Once again, the bulk of the selling was concentrated in natural gas and metals, led by gold and, not least, copper, as well as grains.

In energy, natural gas remained under heavy selling pressure, with the combined speculative net short across the two major Henry Hub deliverable futures contracts reaching 124,000 contracts, the largest bearish position in two and a half years. The buildup in short positions followed another sharp decline in prices, with the benchmark futures contract tumbling almost 10% during the reporting week. Further weakness in subsequent sessions drove prices towards USD 2.50 per MMBtu, reinforcing the bearish momentum that has encouraged additional selling but also left the contract increasingly exposed to the risk of a weather related reversal.

Across crude oil and refined products, speculative demand was muted during a week of mixed price performance, with crude rallying while fuel products eased. Despite ongoing geopolitical supply concerns, the lack of a stronger buying response suggests traders remain cautious about adding exposure at current price levels.

In metals, broad-based selling continued, led by gold and copper, while the silver net long slumped to just 3,746 contracts, a 32-month low, highlighting the metal's continued lack of directional independence from a weakening gold price. Despite silver's underlying industrial demand story, short-term price action remains heavily influenced by developments in gold, with speculative investors showing little appetite to defend long positions during the latest correction.

In grains, long liquidation continued with the combined speculative net long tumbling by 42% over the past four weeks after reaching an unsustainable record above one million contracts last month. The scale of the reduction highlights how quickly positioning can unwind once the fundamental and technical outlook turns less supportive.

In soft commodities, all four tracked contracts attracted net buying, led by coffee and sugar. The latter's speculative net long reached a fresh five-year high, standing in sharp contrast to the widespread liquidation seen elsewhere across the commodity complex.

Overall, the latest positioning data point to a market where speculative investors remain focused on reducing risk rather than rebuilding exposure. While the scale of recent liquidation may eventually create opportunities for a rebound, particularly in markets where positioning has become increasingly one-sided, a sustained recovery will likely require an improvement in price momentum and greater confidence in the underlying fundamental outlook.

Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Managed money short, long and net positions in energy - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money short, long and net positions across key metals - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money positions across grains - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, and Other Reportables
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds, and Other Reportables
Forex: A broader breakdown between commercial and non-commercial participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators

The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:

They are more likely to have tight stops and no underlying physical exposure that needs to be hedged
This makes them more reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
Their positioning provides insight into major trends, while extreme positions can also help identify when a reversal or correction may be looming

It is worth noting that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate and amplify price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a trough in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.

Related articles/content
23 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Crowded trades unwind as energy risks intensify 22 Oct 2026: Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks 19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026 16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets 15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

23 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Crowded trades unwind as energy risks intensify
22 Oct 2026: Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks
19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026
16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets
15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex

Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC, ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:45:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Consumer sentiment stayed near a five-month low as Gulf supply risk kept building
Equities: US and European equities declined amid rising oil prices and earnings concerns, Asian markets opened lower ahead of key central bank decisions.
Volatility: Crude volatility pushed to an extreme while equity gauges held a range-bound footing
Digital Assets: Tokens slipped further over the weekend while the exchange-traded funds extended their outflows
Commodities: Oil retreats on Iran de-escalation hopes as gold steadies after sharp weekly loss
Fixed Income: Global bond yields eased lower early Monday after bouncing Friday as risk sentiment stabilised.
Currencies: Currencies are rangebound ahead of an important week for central bank meets, as the FOMC, ECB and BoJ all meet this week.

Macro

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up to 48.0 in late October but remained a five-month low. Year-ahead business conditions improved but stayed well below last year, while current conditions fell on an 18% drop in buying conditions for durables. Sentiment is 10% below a year ago and 15% below February. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-run expectations to 3.5%.
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia persisted over the weekend as Riyadh’s main airport reopened after a two-week shutdown. Trump said he is close to deciding whether to strike Iran again or pursue a deal, keeping oil markets on edge.
President Lula reportedly secured a narrow victory over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential runoff, winning around 51% of the vote and halting the region’s rightward political shift. The Brazilian real fell sharply in futures trading as investors, who had anticipated a Bolsonaro victory and a more fiscally disciplined government, reassessed the outlook. Lula now faces significant challenges, including widening fiscal deficits, rising debt, deep political polarisation and restoring investor confidence in Brazil’s public finances.
Moody’s left France’s Aa3 rating unchanged on Friday, with a negative outlook. The OAT-Bund spread surged 29 bps last week—its second-largest weekly rise on record—to about 170 bps, the widest since the 2011 eurozone debt crisis.
US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4, still indicating strong expansion. New orders hit a 4.5-year high, exports and employment strengthened, but rising input costs pushed selling-price inflation to its highest since August 2022, while confidence edged down.
Canadian retail sales are seen up 0.7% m/m in September after a revised 1.2% gain in August. August growth was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.2%), gasoline stations (+1.7% in value, –0.5% in volume), and higher sales at food and beverage (+1.1%), general merchandise (+1%), and health and personal care stores (+1.6%).

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Germany Oct. IFO Business Climate Survey
1230 – US Sep. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
1430 – US Oct. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes

Earnings events

Monday: Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Tuesday: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx
Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Friday, the Dow lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 was broadly unchanged at 28,957.53, as rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The semiconductor index recovered 0.4% after Thursday’s sharp selloff, but broader sentiment remained cautious. Bloom Energy sank 11.3% despite strong revenue growth as investors focused on negative cash flow, while American Express fell 3.7% after narrowly missing revenue expectations and announcing job cuts. Exxon Mobil gained 2.8% alongside higher oil prices, with attention now turning to major technology earnings and the Fed.
Europe: European equities extended losses on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3%, Germany’s DAX falling 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 losing 0.4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 declining 0.3%, as rising oil prices and disappointing earnings weighed on sentiment. Kering slumped 16.6% after weak Gucci sales raised fresh concerns about luxury demand, while Volvo Cars plunged 24.2% following a quarterly operating loss and further job cuts. Safran dropped 10% as investors questioned slowing growth in its engine spare-parts business, whereas L’Oréal rose 5.6% on stronger-than-expected sales. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank and further earnings releases.
Asia: Asian equities declined on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing 0.8% lower and South Korea’s Kospi falling more than 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded near flat, as concerns over oil prices and AI spending weighed on sentiment. Fanuc gained 1.2% after raising its annual profit forecast and announcing a share buyback. SK Hynix held up better than the broader Korean market amid reports of a possible $12 billion special dividend, with details expected alongside Wednesday’s earnings. Chinese equities remained fragile despite reported buying by state-backed funds last week, as investors awaited major technology earnings and central bank decisions.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

With a decision on Iran pending, VIX closed Friday at 19.45, up 2.21%, and VIX1D jumped 10.74% to 16.81. Crude carried the standout move, OVX rising 7.87% to 60.02 with its ratio to VIX at 3.09, while VXN eased 1.46% to 28.30 and MOVE fell 3.30% to 103.32.
The cash curve held its contango, VIX9D at 18.70 against VIX3M 20.48 and VIX1Y 22.82, with VVIX up 1.63% to 109.70 and SKEW easing to 151.80. SPXW implies 59 points, or 0.78%, for today's expiry and 136 points, or 1.78%, into Friday 30 October, with Wednesday's Fed decision the main scheduled catalyst.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~79,350 -0.87% | ETHEREUM ~2,294 -1.42% | IBIT 45.96 -0.22% | ETHA 54.08 +0.37% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Tokens drifted lower through the weekend, bitcoin touching a session low near 79,330 before steadying, with XRP down 1.67% and SOL down 1.37%. Friday's listed complex was softer, Coinbase falling 2.74% and the miners led lower by Cipher at 4.57%, while Strategy added 0.14%. DVOL eased 0.93% to 38.44.
US spot bitcoin funds recorded net outflows of about USD 773m across 22 and 23 October, ending a three-day run of inflows, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for USD 472m of the larger day. An estimated USD 11bn of bitcoin options expires on 30 October.

Commodities

Oil: Brent reversed lower in Asian trading to trade near USD 114 after surging above USD 117 on Friday amid concerns that Trump could resume strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections on 3 November. Since then, Trump has signalled that he is nearing a decision on Iran, raising hopes of de-escalation. Meanwhile, fighting between Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend. Refined products also trade softer, although diesel and distillate contracts in New York and London remain near USD 200 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warns that supply tightness could extend well into 2027, reflecting constrained exports and an inevitable maintenance season that has so far been deferred.
Gold holds above USD 4,000 after briefly breaking below that level on Friday, ending the week down more than 4%, its largest weekly decline since June, with rising real yields cited as a key drag. Gold ETFs, a recent source of support, saw holdings decline by 12.8 tonnes towards the end of the week. For now, gold's performance remains closely linked to broader risk sentiment, with last week's AI-led equity correction and oil price surge adding to market pressures. The partial reversal of both moves has given markets, including gold, some breathing space, further supported by a softer dollar and easing bond yields.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bond yields rebounded Friday after Thursday’s significant slide as risk sentiment steadiead and oil prices surged. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield ended Friday up four basis points at 4.68% before easing slightly lower in early trading Monday as oil prices also dipped in Asian trading hours. dropped nearly 20 basis points at one point to 4.61% before rebounding to the 4.65% area by early Friday, while the benchmark 10-year yield trades early Friday some 16 basis points below its Wednesday close at 4.96%, the first daily close below 5.0% in a month.
The Germany-France sovereign yield spread tightened Friday, with the 10-year spread ending the day some seven basis points lower at 167 basis points after its widest daily close for the cycle since 2011 on Thursday.

Currencies

The US dollar remains rangebound, chopping indecisively back and forth ahead of an important week for central bank meetings, as the RBNZ, Bank of Canada and the Fed are all set to meet this Wednesday, the ECB will meet on Thursday and the Bank of Japan will meet Friday. The RBNZ and Bank of Canada are expected to hike their policy rate 25 basis points while the Fed is widely expected to hold on interest rates, with creeping uncertainty on whether Chair Warsh and company will hike in December, though that remains the market’s base case. The ECB is universally expected to hold rates at this Thursday’s meeting, with forward guidance the focus for whether the bank will hike in December, where the odds have dipped recently on the retreat in global bond yields and on the recent turbulence in French sovereign bonds. Similarly, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its rate unchanged at 1.25%, with guidance for a December hike the focus, which is 77% priced into forward expectations.
EURUSD traded near the 1.1220 level early Monday, us slightly from the Friday closing level, USDJPY found support Friday at a 1-month low of 156.08 and has bounced back to the 157.00 area since then, where it remained in early trading Monday after chopping back and forth in Tokyo trading hours.
EURGBP found support Friday at a 17-month low below 0.8360 and has bounced to near the 0.8390 area ahead of this Wednesday’s Autumn Budget Statement from Chancellor Healey,

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Beyond AI: 5 market rotations to watch

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 06:00:00 Z

Key points:

AI spending is becoming a double-edged sword: Meta was punished for spending more, while Tesla fell despite cutting its investment plans.
The rotation is broadening: Software and cybersecurity outperformed semiconductors, while small caps, healthcare and energy offered alternatives to mega-cap technology.
Income deserves another look: Bonds rallied as Treasury yields fell, while quality dividend stocks offer investors another source of portfolio returns.

A quiet week for indices, but a big shift underneath

I'm back from a week away, and catching up on the markets, one thing stands out: AI demand remains strong, but Wall Street is losing patience with the cost of delivering it.

Last week's earnings from Meta and Tesla captured this contradiction particularly well.

Meta reported impressive revenue growth of 26%, supported by a strong advertising business. Ad impressions increased 10%, while average ad prices rose 14%, showing that AI is already helping the company generate more revenue from its existing business.

But Meta shares fell around 7%. Why? Because the company raised its 2026 capital spending outlook to $135–145 billion, while quarterly free cash flow turned negative.

Investors can see the benefits of AI in Meta's advertising business today. What is harder to value is the enormous investment in new AI models and infrastructure, where future returns are still uncertain.

Tesla faced almost the opposite problem.

Its free cash flow surprised positively, and the company reduced its planned 2026 capital expenditure. Yet shares still fell, as investors questioned whether lower spending could slow progress in autonomous driving, robotics and other AI ambitions.

Meta gets punished for spending more, while Tesla gets punished for spending less.

It sounds contradictory, but the underlying message is consistent: investors want spending to match credible returns. They are no longer rewarding bigger AI ambitions without asking tougher questions about cash flow, profitability and execution.

The broader market also showed signs of change. The Nasdaq slipped around 0.7% last week, but the Russell 2000 gained almost 2%. Beneath the headline indices, some sectors performed significantly better than the technology leaders that have dominated market returns.

Last week at a glance: Where did the money move?

Weekly performance | 19–23 October 2026 | USD

Market / Sector	Instrument	Weekly change
Broad markets
S&P 500	Index	−0.5%
Nasdaq Composite	Index	−0.7%
Russell 2000	Index	+2.0%
Dow Jones	Index	+0.4%
Technology rotation
Cybersecurity	HACK ETF	+9.2%
Software	IGV ETF	+6.0%
Semiconductors	SMH ETF	−2.3%
Other sectors
Biotechnology	IBB ETF	+2.9%
Energy	XLE ETF	+1.6%
Healthcare	XLV ETF	+1.5%
Real estate	XLRE ETF	+1.0%
Consumer staples	XLP ETF	+0.7%
Bonds
Long-duration US Treasuries	TLT ETF	+1.6%
7–10 year US Treasuries	IEF ETF	+0.7%
Investment-grade corporate bonds	LQD ETF	+0.4%

Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo

For investors, this creates five rotations worth watching:

1. From semiconductors to software and cybersecurity

One of last week's most striking moves came within technology itself.

The semiconductor ETF SOXX fell around 3%, while software ETF IGV gained nearly 6% and cybersecurity ETF HACK rallied roughly 9%.

This does not mean the AI infrastructure boom is over. Demand for computing power and memory remains strong. But the market is increasingly questioning whether the largest infrastructure investments can deliver equally large returns.

The next opportunity may be in companies that help businesses actually use AI.

Software companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce and ServiceNow could benefit as businesses use AI to automate everyday tasks, improve productivity and reduce costs. Cybersecurity companies such as Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike and Fortinet may benefit from the growing need to protect digital infrastructure and increasingly autonomous AI systems.

For investors, the focus should be on companies demonstrating real customer adoption, recurring revenue and stronger margins, rather than simply announcing new AI products.

For traders, the relative performance of software ETFs such as IGV against semiconductor ETFs such as SOXX could provide clues about whether this rotation is gaining momentum.

The risk: Software valuations can also be expensive, and AI could disrupt some existing software business models. Strong earnings from major cloud companies could quickly revive semiconductor momentum.

2. From mega-cap technology to healthcare, energy and defensives

Last week's market performance also showed that weakness in big technology stocks does not necessarily mean weakness everywhere.

Healthcare stocks gained around 1.5%, biotechnology rose nearly 3%, and energy advanced as oil prices remained elevated.

These sectors provide different drivers of earnings and returns.

Healthcare companies such as Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie and Eli Lilly offer exposure to relatively resilient demand, medical innovation and longer-term trends such as ageing populations. Healthcare ETF XLV provides broader sector exposure.

Energy companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron may benefit from elevated oil prices, although higher energy costs can also increase inflation pressures and weigh on economic growth.

Consumer staples and utilities offer another route for investors seeking more predictable demand and cash flows. ETFs such as XLP and XLU provide diversified exposure.

For investors, the opportunity is to reduce dependence on a small group of mega-cap technology names and follow changes in market leadership.

The risk: Defensive sectors are not immune to falling markets, while energy performance remains closely linked to oil prices. A broader economic slowdown could also affect earnings.

3. From mega-cap concentration to small caps

Another interesting shift last week was the outperformance of smaller companies. The Russell 2000 gained around 2%, even as the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq declined 0.7%.

This suggests investors may be looking beyond the mega-cap technology stocks that have dominated market returns.

Small caps offer exposure to a broader range of domestically focused businesses, many of which have been overlooked during the AI-led rally. They could benefit if economic growth remains resilient and market leadership continues to broaden.

For investors, ETFs such as IWM (Russell 2000) and IJR (S&P SmallCap 600) provide diversified exposure. The latter has a profitability requirement for index inclusion, which may appeal to investors looking for greater quality within smaller companies.

The relative performance of IWM against SPY is worth monitoring. Sustained small-cap outperformance could signal that the market rotation is becoming more established.

The risk: Small caps are generally more sensitive to borrowing costs, credit conditions and domestic economic growth. With Treasury yields still elevated and the Fed maintaining a tightening bias, a sustained rally will need support from earnings and financial conditions, not just a temporary move away from technology.

4. From capital gains to dividend income

When technology stocks are rising sharply, dividends can seem relatively unexciting. But when valuations become harder to justify and share prices turn volatile, income starts looking more attractive.

Quality dividend-paying stocks offer returns that are not entirely dependent on rising share prices.

Investors could explore dividend growers such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson, financial companies with strong balance sheets, and selected utilities or REITs.

Dividend-focused ETFs such as SCHD, VIG and DGRO provide diversified approaches to the theme.

The important distinction is between a high dividend yield and a sustainable dividend. Companies with strong free cash flow, manageable debt and the ability to grow distributions may be better positioned than those offering high yields because their share prices have fallen.

The risk: Dividends can be reduced, and dividend-paying equities still carry capital risk. With government bonds offering competitive yields, equity income must compensate investors for taking additional risk.

5. From expensive growth stocks to bonds

Bonds were another interesting part of last week's market action.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell by around 10 basis points to finish the week near 5%, while longer-duration Treasury bonds rallied as investors sought safety during the technology selloff.

That is an important reminder of the different roles bonds can play in a portfolio.

First, they offer income. With Treasury yields still close to 5%, investors can generate meaningful income without relying entirely on equity-market gains.

Second, they offer potential diversification. Government bonds can benefit when equities fall because investors become concerned about growth or valuations.

Third, they can offer capital gains if yields continue declining, particularly for longer-duration bonds.

For investors, shorter- and intermediate-duration US Treasuries can offer income with less sensitivity to changes in interest rates than longer-duration bonds. ETFs such as SGOV and IEF provide examples, while TLT offers greater exposure to long-term yield movements.

The risk: Inflation remains elevated, and oil prices have risen. If the Fed signals further tightening or inflation expectations increase, Treasury yields could rise again, pressuring bond prices.

What could change the picture this week?

The next few days could determine whether last week's market rotations have more room to run.

Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. Investors will be watching cloud growth, AI spending, margins and free cash flow to determine whether these companies can justify their enormous infrastructure commitments.

The Federal Reserve also announces its policy decision on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but investors will focus on whether policymakers signal another potential increase as inflation risks persist.

Market development	Opportunities to watch
AI earnings beat and spending generates visible returns	Semiconductor and AI infrastructure rebound
AI adoption strengthens but capex concerns remain	Software and cybersecurity
Market gains spread beyond mega-cap technology	Healthcare, energy and defensive sectors
Bond yields continue falling	Treasuries, REITs and dividend stocks
Inflation persists and yields rise	Short-duration bonds and companies with strong cash flow

The bottom line

Coming back from a week away, the biggest change I see is not that investors have lost faith in AI. It is that the market is demanding even more evidence of returns and showing greater willingness to explore opportunities elsewhere.

This creates a broader investing landscape.

Semiconductors remain an important part of the AI story, but software and cybersecurity could capture greater attention as adoption grows. Healthcare and energy offer different earnings drivers. Dividend-paying stocks and bonds provide alternative sources of income and potential diversification.

The AI trade may not be over. But the market is reminding us that there is more than one way to make money.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Amazon NVIDIA Corporation Macro Central Banks Employment GDP Indices Corporate Bonds Government Bonds Bonds High yield bonds UKMustRead UK Portfolio Ideas Health Care Consumer Goods Small cap Small Caps Small Cap Stocks Energy (Sector) Cybersecurity

A big day for equities, but a bigger one for bonds.

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:55:00 Z

Equity market breadth tells different story.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Three per cent of the range, one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

Thursday took 93 points out of the S&P 500 and left the index four points higher on the week. The option market spent the session repricing the next few days rather than the market.

The S&P 500 is four points higher on the week and every volatility measure on the board is higher with it.

MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 19.03 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.39) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.410

Today in brief

The short version. Thursday’s fall was large in the index and small in the week. The S&P 500 lost 1.21% but the equal-weighted version of it rose 0.77%, and after four of five sessions the index has used 3% of the range the option market priced for this week. The repricing sat at the front of the volatility curve, where a single session now costs 0.80 of a month against 0.68 a day earlier.

Markets. The S&P 500 closed at 7,663.43 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90%, with semiconductors down 5.99% and Meta 6.98% after it set out capital-spending plans of 135 to 145 billion dollars a year. Utilities, healthcare and financials all rose. US Treasuries had their strongest session in more than two years and the ten-year closed below 5% for the first time in a month, at 4.97%. Brent held near 114 dollars while gold slipped below 4,000. Europe fell about a per cent with euro-zone banks down 4.17%, and Asia steadied overnight.

Volatility curve. All fourteen measures on the chart rose. The one-day gauge gained 33.39% to 15.18 and the nine-day 21.76%, against 2.68% for the one-year. The bond gauge added 11.36% to 106.85. The front VIX future is November at 19.410, above December at 19.270, while the cash curve still slopes upward throughout. Implied correlation rose 13.48% to 14.56 and dispersion held at 37.80.

Single names. The index moved further than the names inside it. Median implied-volatility rank rose to 46.7 from 42.8 across 187 US underlyings, a shallow drift, while the Nasdaq 100 fund’s own implied volatility rose 20.9% and its rank to 72.3 from 43.0. High rank sits in consumer discretionary and energy, not in the names that fell.

Flow. Yesterday’s ten reports gave no readable direction. The two lines that did carry a side were credit hedges, not equity ones.

This week’s range. The S&P 500 has used 3% of its band and gold 166%, closing below the lower bound. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 29% and the bitcoin fund 5%.

Earnings and catalysts. UBS is priced at 2.1x its own eight-report history into Wednesday and Apple at 0.4x into Thursday. Today brings euro-zone and US flash activity surveys, with both US releases landing inside the session that today’s expiry settles on. The 30 October expiry, which covers the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, prices 1.895%.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.723%, against 59.60 points quoted for this same contract a session ago when decay alone would have left about 42.1. In our view that may be better read as a repricing of the next few days than of the market.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

US Treasuries had their strongest session in more than two years. The two-year yield fell close to 20 basis points at one point before settling near 4.65%, and the ten-year ended below 5% for the first time in a month, at 4.97%. The move came out of equities rather than the data: US initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 194,000, the lowest since mid-July.

Driving it was a second day of doubt about the return on artificial-intelligence spending. Meta fell 6.98% despite beating on revenue, as investors weighed annual capital-spending plans of 135 to 145 billion dollars and a new class of non-voting shares created to help pay for them. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.7%.

Oil pulled the other way. Brent held near 114 dollars on attacks against Saudi infrastructure, leaving an inflation risk underneath a bond rally built on the opposite worry.

Market snapshot

US (Thursday 22 October close): S&P 500 7,663.43, down 1.21%. Nasdaq 100 28,958.69, down 2.90%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,873.28, up 0.02%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.77%, while semiconductors fell 5.99% and technology 3.29%. Utilities, healthcare and financials all gained.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 fell 1.05% to 637.75 and the Euro Stoxx 50 1.94%, with the DAX down 1.07%. Euro-zone banks fell 4.17%. ASML lost 5%. The German to French ten-year spread closed above 174 basis points, its widest of the cycle since 2012.
Asia (Friday morning): the Hang Seng was up 0.58% at 23,066.79 while the CSI 300 eased 0.54%. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.6% and the Kospi recovered from an early decline of nearly 4% to close to flat. Taiwan was shut for a typhoon.
Commodities and rates: Brent traded at 113.65 and WTI at 100.05. Gold futures eased 0.77% to 4,029.20 and the gold fund 2.63%, with spot gold slipping below 4,000 overnight. Silver hit an eleven-month low near 54 and gold miners lost 5.80%. The ten-year yield was 4.966%, the thirty-year 5.292% and the two-year 4.654%, each down. Bitcoin held at 81,770 while the largest bitcoin fund fell 3.72%.
Market regime: neutral and choppy, the VIX at 19.03, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 152.39.

All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 23 October 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Every one of the fourteen measures on the chart rose, which is the most useful single fact about the session. The front moved most: VIX1D gained 33.39% to 15.18 and VIX9D 21.76% to 18.86, against 2.68% for the one-year. The curve now sits in the upper half of its sixty-session band rather than the bottom.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.80 against 0.68, so a single session is priced much closer to a month than it was. VIX3M/VIX fell to 1.06 from 1.12 as the front came up toward the back. VXN/VIX rose to 1.51 from 1.46, the Nasdaq gauge at 28.72, which is where the repricing concentrated.

VIX futures. The front is November at 19.410 and the second December at 19.270, a ratio of 1.005. The series rolled on Wednesday 21 October, so both of this week’s readings are the same November contract: it rose 0.710 while spot rose 2.35, compressing the premium to spot to 0.38 points from 2.02. The cash curve still slopes upward throughout, so the kink sits in the futures alone, and the November window carries the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, mega-cap results and the 3 November midterms.

Rates and correlation. The bond gauge rose 11.36% to 106.85 and gold volatility 13.06% to 24.15. Implied correlation rose 13.48% to 14.56 and dispersion 1.78% to 37.80.

Single-name volatility

The index measures above moved further than the names inside them. On an identical 187 US underlyings the median implied-volatility rank rose to 46.7 from 42.8, and on the common set of 337 euro-zone names to 47.6 from 45.9. Median implied volatility across the valid common set of 524 names rose 0.74 of a point to 33.53. The share of US names above rank 50 rose to 44.9% from 36.9%.

So the single-name surface rose broadly and shallowly: 197 of the 524 names gained more than five points of rank and 44 lost more than five. That is a drift, not a shock.

The sharp repricing sat in the funds. Implied volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fund rose 20.9% and its rank to 72.3 from 43.0, the semiconductor fund to rank 50.9 from 31.4, while single-name implied volatility mostly moved between zero and ten per cent. In our view that gap is what an index-level event looks like in the surface, and may be why implied correlation rose while dispersion barely moved.

High rank is not where the selling was. Among US names the highest median ranks sit in consumer discretionary at 69.0 and energy at 66.5, against 39.8 for semiconductors. Nvidia’s rank rose to 53.6 from 36.6, while Meta’s fell to 42.6 from 63.9 as its event premium came out after reporting. One caveat: the mega-caps’ front expiry is today, so a one-session change carries a roll effect too.

Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 22 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the large lines are deep in-the-money put packages, rolls and mid-market prints with no side, and the put-heavy premium split is an intrinsic-value artefact rather than a view.
Sector and ETF flow was equally unreadable, with two exceptions worth naming: confirmed ask-side buying of high-yield credit downside, and a far out-of-the-money regional-bank put bought ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision. Both are credit hedges rather than equity ones.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Four sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Thursday’s close. Straddles come from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Four sessions in, the S&P 500 has used 3% of the 119.13 points, 1.56%, priced around Friday’s close, and sits 3.99 points above where the week started. Thursday’s 93.74 point fall gave back the four sessions before it rather than opening a new range.

Gold is the other extreme, at 166% of its band, closing at 369.00 against a lower bound of 374.17. That range finished before the week did.

Between them, the Nasdaq 100 fund has used 29% downward, energy 33% and the bitcoin fund 5%. The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month and does not compare with the five above it.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

Today's catalysts

08:00 CET UK September retail sales.
09:15 to 10:30 CET October flash purchasing managers’ indices for France, Germany, the euro zone and the UK, with ECB consumer inflation expectations at 10:00.
15:45 CET US October flash purchasing managers’ index, then University of Michigan sentiment for October at 16:00.
Earnings today: American Express, Eni and SLB.

Both US releases land after the 15:30 CET cash open and well before the 22:00 CET close, so today’s expiry settles on the reaction to them rather than on the run-up.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, for the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether an expected move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from 2.1x to 0.4x. UBS is richest, at 6.5% into Wednesday against an eight-report average of 3.1%, after its expected move rose 2.7 points in a day. Apple is cheapest, at 1.0% against 2.5%, with Microsoft next at 4.5% against 7.0%.

Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and the board shows it plainly. Novartis carries a rank of 67 and prices 2.9%; Apple almost the same at 66 and prices 1.0%; UBS sits lower at 54 and prices the widest move. Rank measures where a name sits in its own year. The event premium measures one day.

Meta is the completed example: priced at 6.7%, it moved 7.0%. Next are Novartis on Tuesday, UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: SPX options price 55.45 points, 0.723%, for today’s expiry. A session ago the same contract was quoted at 59.60 points with two sessions left. The clock alone would have left about 42.1, so roughly 13.3 points went in beyond the decay. That is the clearest measure of the front-end repricing.
Event implied range: the 30 October expiry prices 145.40 points, 1.895%, covering the 28 October Federal Reserve decision. No recent edition quoted that expiry, so there is no like-for-like comparison to draw.
Tail risk signal: SKEW rose 2.03 points to 152.39 and the tail-risk index 28.74%. The tail was already expensive and got more so, on a session when the index fell only 1.21%.
Correlation read: implied correlation rose 13.48% to 14.56 while dispersion held at 37.80. In our view the market may have begun paying for names to move together again, though 14.56 is still low and one session does not make a regime.

In our view the session may be better read as a repricing of the next few days than of the market. The index gave back its week, the front of the curve took the adjustment, and the names inside it moved far less than the funds tracking them.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Commodity weekly: Crowded trades unwind as energy risks intensify

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Positioning drives volatility: Crowded trades across bonds, equities and commodities are being unwound, amplifying price movements and, in some cases, overwhelming underlying fundamentals.
Energy remains the inflationary outlier: Escalating Middle East tensions support crude oil and refined products, while European and Asian gas prices rise amid concerns about winter supplies.
Metals face contrasting challenges: Gold and silver suffer technical selling despite lower bond yields, while copper remains vulnerable to US tariff uncertainty and the potential reversal of extraordinary inventory stockpiling.
Growth concerns meet supply risks: Iron ore weakness highlights China's struggling steel sector, while selling across grains and soft commodities reflects a combination of bearish fundamentals and elevated speculative positioning.

A week dominated by positioning and conflicting signals

Commodity markets have gone through another mixed and at times turbulent week amid a broader risk-off environment, with AI-led weakness across global equity markets, mounting concerns about French government debt and rising energy prices all weighing on investor sentiment. Together, these developments have heightened concerns about the outlook for growth and inflation, triggering sharp reversals across financial markets and exposing increasingly stretched speculative positions.

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a modest weekly decline but remains up more than 35% year-to-date. Energy has once again provided the main support, led by gasoil and Brent crude, while precious metals and grains have suffered the heaviest losses. Silver has fallen around 5.5%, wheat close to 5%, and gold more than 3%, while industrial metals and soft commodities have delivered mixed performances.

The common theme has been the unwinding of crowded positions. Previously oversold US Treasuries have rallied sharply, while selling was seen in several commodities such as copper and sugar that in recent weeks had attracted substantial speculative interest. This has produced some seemingly contradictory developments: bond yields have fallen despite renewed inflation concerns, gold has weakened despite safe-haven demand, and oil has rallied even as worries about economic growth intensify.

The correction does not necessarily signal a fundamental change in the longer-term commodity outlook. Instead, it highlights how positioning can temporarily dominate price discovery, particularly when investors become less willing to carry risk.

Commodities one week returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Energy: Supply risks intensify despite mounting growth concerns

Crude oil remains the clearest example of supply concerns outweighing a deteriorating demand outlook. Brent has climbed above USD 114 per barrel and is heading for its highest weekly close since June 2022 as attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure raise fears of wider Middle East supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, reports that the US and Israel have developed plans for potential renewed strikes against Iran following next month's US midterm elections have added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. This risk is reinforced by reports that a third US aircraft carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East.

WTI is trading back above USD 100 but continues to lag Brent, leaving the international benchmark's premium above USD 13. The widening spread reflects the increasingly uneven impact of the Middle East conflict on regional crude availability, transportation costs and the value of barrels located outside the disrupted supply chains.

For now, crude exports from the region have proved relatively resilient, helped by alternative routes and logistical adjustments. However, the market is increasingly concerned that further attacks could damage production, processing or export infrastructure, creating disruptions that cannot easily be resolved by rerouting shipments.

Refined products remain particularly exposed, with diesel and gasoil continuing to trade above USD 200, supported by tight supplies amid a very slow recovery in shipments from the Persian Gulf, a major global refinery hub. European and Asian natural gas prices have also risen amid concerns about winter supplies, with benchmark European TTF futures gaining around 7% this week, reaching a four-year high at EUR 93.50 per MWh (≈ USD 30.5 per MMBtu), as relatively low storage levels leave the region increasingly dependent on continued imports through the approaching winter.

To put the supply challenge into perspective, European gas inventories currently stand at around 845 TWh, approximately 100 TWh below the level recorded at this time last year. That shortfall alone is equivalent to the energy carried by more than 80 large LNG carriers, highlighting the scale of additional imports required to rebuild the buffer ahead of winter. Relative to the five-year average, the shortfall increases to almost 140 LNG carriers.

In contrast, US natural gas has fallen sharply, heading into the weekend around USD 2.70 per MMBtu, amid mild weather demand and strong production, highlighting the distinctly different regional supply balances.

The broader concern is that another sustained rise in energy prices could reinforce inflation pressures just as economic activity shows signs of slowing. Such a development would complicate the outlook for monetary policy and increase the risk of stagflation, with energy remaining supported even as other commodities struggle.

Global gas prices and EU stockpiles - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Precious metals: Technical selling overwhelms traditional support

Gold's decline has been particularly notable because it has occurred alongside a powerful rally in US Treasuries. Normally, falling bond yields and increased demand for safe havens would provide support, but this week momentum-driven selling and long liquidation have overwhelmed those influences.

Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,000 during Friday's Asian session after Thursday's break below support around USD 4,060 accelerated technical selling. The metal is heading for its steepest weekly decline in several months and potentially its weakest weekly close since November, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns about the stability of the equity market rally.

Silver has suffered an even sharper setback, falling towards an 11-month low near USD 54. The gold-silver ratio has climbed above 74, also an 11-month high, reflecting silver's relative weakness amid broader risk reduction and concerns about industrial demand.

The latest price action suggests that short-term speculative selling is currently outweighing demand from longer-term investors, who have continued to accumulate gold through ETFs almost uninterrupted since July, seeking protection against fiscal instability, currency debasement and geopolitical risks.

Importantly, the correction does not necessarily invalidate gold's longer-term investment case. However, it demonstrates that even assets supported by structural demand can suffer substantial setbacks when speculative positions are reduced.

Attention now turns to whether gold can stabilise, with focus on an ascending trendline connecting the October 2025 and July 2026 lows, currently providing support near USD 3,985. Meanwhile, the broken USD 4,060 level may offer initial resistance ahead of key resistance around USD 4,230. A sustained recovery will likely require stabilising energy prices, continued demand from central banks and ETF investors, and, not least, evidence that the recent wave of long liquidation has run its course.

Spot Gold and investment flows - Source: Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Copper: Extraordinary US stockpiles put tariffs firmly in focus

Copper remains under pressure, with HG futures lower on the week after breaking below support around USD 6.52. Although concerns about the sustainability of AI-related investment have contributed to weaker sentiment, there is currently limited evidence of a material deterioration in the longer-term demand outlook from electrification, power grids and data centres.

A more immediate concern is the extraordinary geographical imbalance in copper inventories and uncertainty surrounding future US trade policy.

Inventories monitored by the three major futures exchanges have risen for a fourth consecutive week to approximately 1.05 million tonnes. A 19.6 kt decline in Shanghai, taking stocks near a two-and-a-half-year low, was more than offset by increases of 6.8 kt on COMEX and 47.5 kt at the LME, with most of the latter entering US warehouses.

Combined COMEX and US-based LME stocks have now reached 893 kt, representing approximately 85% of the global exchange-monitored total. This remarkable concentration reflects months of tariff-driven stockpiling, leaving inventories outside the US relatively tight despite the overall increase. Against this backdrop, traders will increasingly focus on Washington's pending decision on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports, potentially from January 2027.

A decision against tariffs could trigger an unwinding of the stockpiling trade if changes in regional spreads provide sufficient incentive to release US-held metal back into international markets. Such a development could weigh on prices, although the timing and scale of physical outflows would depend on regional price incentives, freight costs and warehouse logistics. Conversely, the introduction of tariffs could reinforce regional price distortions and encourage metal to remain within US borders, thereby keeping stockpiles tight elsewhere.

Iron ore: China's structural weakness becomes increasingly visible

While copper's immediate challenges centre on trade policy and inventory distortions, iron ore faces a more fundamental problem: weak Chinese demand combined with abundant global supply. Singapore-traded iron ore futures briefly slipped below USD 90 per tonne this week, reaching a two-year low and extending their year-to-date decline to approximately 15%.

China's prolonged property downturn continues to undermine steel consumption, while subdued construction activity is keeping steel mills under pressure. At the same time, ample seaborne supplies and the prospect of additional production are limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.

The contrast with copper is important. Copper's long-term demand outlook remains supported by electrification and infrastructure investment, while iron ore remains heavily dependent on China's traditional construction and property sectors. Without a meaningful improvement in Chinese steel demand or stronger production discipline, iron ore may struggle to recover.

SGX Iron Ore futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Agriculture: Crowded positions meet less supportive fundamentals

Grains and soft commodities provide further evidence of positioning-driven volatility. Wheat has fallen close to 5% this week on the prospect of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, while corn and sugar have also suffered substantial losses. The grain correction follows several weeks of speculative long liquidation, initially triggered by increasingly bearish supply estimates, including the latest USDA report pointing to higher US corn production and inventories.

Managed money had accumulated more than one million net long grain contracts last month, leaving the sector particularly exposed when bullish expectations began to fade.

Sugar has experienced a similar positioning challenge, with speculative net longs recently reaching a five-year high. Such elevated exposure can amplify downside movements when prices fail to respond to supportive narratives.

Looking ahead, weather developments, including the potential impact of a Super El Niño on global agricultural production, remain important. However, near-term price behaviour may continue to be dominated by the reduction of speculative exposure before fundamentals regain control.

Outlook: When does liquidation give way to fundamentals?

The coming weeks will test whether the recent correction primarily reflects the removal of excessive speculative positioning or the beginning of a more sustained deterioration in global demand.

The distinction matters. A positioning-driven selloff can create opportunities once liquidation subsides, particularly in markets where underlying supply remains constrained. A fundamentally driven downturn, by contrast, would require a more cautious assessment of demand prospects.

For now, energy remains supported by immediate supply risks, precious metals are searching for stability following technical breakdowns, and industrial commodities face sharply different challenges. Copper's outlook hinges increasingly on US tariff policy and inventory flows, while iron ore continues to reflect China's structural slowdown.

The central message is that the unwinding of crowded trades has weakened commodity prices across several sectors, but it has not removed the underlying supply risks. Whether those risks reassert themselves will depend on how quickly speculative selling subsides and whether global growth concerns deepen.

Related articles/content
22 Oct 2026: Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks 19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026 16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets 15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks 14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness 12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Copper Mining Gold Silver Theme - Precious metals Energy (Sector) Soybean Natural Gas Gas Oil Gasoline

Satellites, sovereignty and stocks: who stands to gain from Europe's space ambitions?

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Europe's satellite ambitions create opportunities for operators and manufacturers, but political support does not guarantee profits.
Eutelsat, SES and European telecom groups have different exposures, from owning satellites to selling connectivity.
US companies face potential restrictions, while European businesses must manage costs, competition and possible retaliation.

Europe wants greater control over the satellites connecting its citizens, businesses and armed forces. Washington is not particularly pleased.

In October 2026, the United States warned of potentially severe retaliation if Brussels proceeds with plans to reserve valuable satellite frequencies for European operators. Companies including SpaceX, which operates Starlink, could face restrictions.

The dispute comes as Europe increases investment in satellite communications, driven by defence needs, digital independence and growing demand for broadband.

For investors, this creates an interesting question: which companies stand to benefit from Europe's ambitions, which could lose ground, and who will ultimately pay the bill?

The answer extends far beyond Starlink.

The most valuable space may be invisible

The dispute centres on radio spectrum, the invisible frequencies that allow satellites to communicate with devices on Earth. Think of spectrum as lanes on a motorway. Companies need permission to use them, and access becomes more valuable as demand grows.

The European Commission proposes reserving two-thirds of a key frequency band for European operators and government services, leaving one-third open to international competition.

Current licences held by American companies Viasat and EchoStar expire in May 2027, making them directly exposed to the proposed changes.

Crucially, this is not a ban on Starlink's existing broadband network. The contested frequencies are particularly useful for connecting ordinary smartphones directly to satellites, without additional equipment.

SpaceX, through Starlink, and Amazon, through Amazon Leo, could face tighter competition for spectrum access. But European authorities also risk limiting innovation if restrictions favour local companies over better technology.

Three ways to benefit, three different risks

The most obvious European beneficiary is Eutelsat, the French operator behind OneWeb's network of more than 600 low Earth orbit satellites. Its satellite business is growing rapidly. Low Earth orbit revenue rose 69.5% to EUR 297 million in the financial year ending June 2026, reaching one-quarter of group revenue.

Yet overall revenue remained broadly flat. The lesson? A promising business can grow quickly without transforming the company's finances overnight.

Luxembourg-based SES offers another route through satellite services for governments, airlines and telecommunications companies.

Both participate in Europe's separate IRIS² programme, a planned secure communications network of 348 satellites, with launches starting in 2029.

But operating satellite networks is expensive. Growing demand must eventually justify the investment.

Airbus, Thales and Leonardo offer a different exposure. These aerospace and defence groups help manufacture satellites and their components, potentially earning revenue from government contracts without carrying the full costs of operating a network.

The distinction matters: building infrastructure can be profitable even when operating it proves difficult.

The unexpected players in the space race

On 19 October, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone announced plans to explore a joint bid for European satellite spectrum. Their approach is interesting: rather than financing satellites themselves, they want to provide ground infrastructure and partner with an existing satellite operator.

That could expand coverage without requiring billions in satellite investment. However, the additional revenue may remain modest compared with their traditional telecom businesses.

The picture becomes even more interesting with AST SpaceMobile, an American company developing satellite-to-smartphone services. It already works with Vodafone and Orange, demonstrating that European operators can pursue greater independence while partnering with American technology providers.

This is not necessarily a contest with one winner. Different companies can benefit from different parts of the same network.

And there is a telling irony: Eutelsat's latest European-built satellites are preparing to launch aboard SpaceX rockets. Europe wants independence, but achieving it may still require American help.

When ambition meets reality

Three risks stand out.

First, Washington could turn its warnings into trade measures affecting European businesses beyond satellites.

Second, satellite networks require heavy investment. Delays, weak demand or rising costs could undermine returns, even with government support.

Third, Europe's competitors already have scale and technology advantages. Protected market access cannot guarantee competitive services or attractive profits.

An investor's radar

Watch regulation: the 2027 licensing process will clarify which companies gain or lose spectrum access.
Follow government contracts: new orders could benefit satellite operators and manufacturers differently.
Track cash flow: for Eutelsat and SES, revenue growth matters only if investment eventually produces sustainable returns.

The real prize is closer to Earth

Europe's satellite ambitions are about more than competing with Starlink. Reliable communications are becoming essential infrastructure, much like electricity or traditional defence equipment.

That creates opportunities, but strategic importance and attractive shareholder returns are not the same thing.

Eutelsat and SES must turn connectivity into profitable services. Airbus, Thales and Leonardo can benefit from building the infrastructure. Telecom operators offer another route, while American companies remain formidable competitors and partners.

For investors, the distinction between these business models matters more than the political headlines.

Europe may increasingly control what happens in its skies, but the real winners will be decided much closer to Earth: by contracts, costs and cash flow.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

Your platform already knows more than it shows you

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 08:24:00 Z

AI assistants now let traders who do not write code use the Saxo OpenAPI by asking plain questions. How the route works, where to stay careful, and a live build on 4 November.

AI assistants have made a broker’s data connection usable for anyone who can ask a clear question.

Every morning before the open, many active traders and investors go through the same routine. They open the platform, check how their positions moved overnight, look at what is getting close to a stop or a target, and decide what needs attention. It works, but it takes time and relies on you spotting everything yourself.

Most of that information is already available in a structured form. Saxo’s OpenAPI is the same kind of connection Saxo’s own platforms are built on, used to fetch prices, positions, orders and account data. What has changed recently is who can use it.

A third way in

Until recently there were two ways to use an API like this. You could read the documentation and work out the requests yourself, or you could become a developer and build software around it. Both took time and technical skill most investors would rather spend on markets.

AI assistants add a third route. You describe what you want in plain language, for example "which of my positions moved more than usual yesterday, and which are close to the levels I set?" The assistant then writes the code that asks the API for it. You read the result, check it against your platform, and change the question if it isn’t quite right. Going from an idea to a working tool can now take an afternoon rather than weeks.

The third route: you ask, the AI writes the code, the API supplies the data, and every decision stays with you.

What it looks like in practice

The useful applications are modest. One is a morning overview of your portfolio that flags what needs a decision. Another is a screen that uses your own criteria instead of a generic preset. The chart below is one example, built for options traders: it places each name by how expensive its options are compared with the past year and by its recent momentum, and each area of the grid is labelled with a type of strategy a trader might want to study further. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position. The same approach works for whatever you care about, whether that is valuation, momentum or dividends. These tools sit next to the platform and do the reading for you, so your attention goes to the decisions.

An example for options traders: IV rank against RSI. The tickers, their positions and the strategy labels are hypothetical and for education only, not advice or a trade recommendation. Selling options can lead to losses well beyond the premium received.

Where to stay careful

AI makes mistakes, and an API only accepts requests in exactly the right form. Assistants sometimes invent field names or misread what a value means, so check every tool against what your platform shows before you rely on it. A sensible way to start is to keep things read-only: the tool gathers and summarises, and placing orders stays with you. Saxo’s developer portal offers test access to a simulation environment, the right place to experiment before anything touches a live account.

See it built live

On 4 November at 13:00 CET I’ll host the webinar "Using AI and OpenAPI to elevate your Saxo platform experience". During the session I’ll build a small working tool on the Saxo OpenAPI from scratch, live, in about fifteen minutes, using plain-language instructions. You’ll see the whole process, including the parts that go wrong. Register for the webinar here .

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles ESMA Products NOT Mentioned OpenAPI API

The FX Trader: Can the real JPY please stand up?

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 08:23:00 Z

The JPY is showing signs of stirring again.

The latest

A different kind of day for global markets yesterday
The oil price surge since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict earlier this year has generally been associated with rising global bond yields. The US dollar has loosely tracked that rise in global yields since March, and yields have risen more consistently than oil prices have over the last seven-plus months. But since the beginning of this month, the extension higher in oil prices has failed to drive global bond yields higher. Likewise, the US dollar switched into consolidation mode as yields rolled over, posting a brief peak on the hot US September CPI release last week before a sharp reversal that led to our call for a possible trend reversal. We need a bit more evidence that the US dollar is turning, but that remains our base case as long as we have a cap on US treasury yields. Technically, the USD move looks stretched short-term outside of USDJPY. For the next week to two weeks, the JPY is our chief focus for volatility potential far more than the US dollar.

Yesterday was especially interesting as US treasury yields saw their steepest plunge in months even as oil prices posted a new cycle high. Clearly the inflationary concerns from higher oil prices are being weighed against the risk that the supply-side shock of the higher energy input costs into the economy might trigger a recession. The focus yesterday for treasuries was clearly more on safe haven seeking as the US equity market suffered an ugly sell-off. Specific AI sector concerns may be far more important at the moment for equities than oil prices, but either way, the treasury market is the most important intermarket focus for the US dollar here. That being said, a US AI- and tech stock meltdown may be a US dollar risk if global investors who have poured into these stocks don’t rotate into US treasuries in further safe-haven seeking.

For the FX Trader, the most interesting developments have been in CHF and JPY, as the plunging yields yesterday sparked an extension of the CHF strength and saw the JPY finally responding more forcefully to what I have posited should be the most supportive combination: lower yields and weak global risk sentiment. The final ingredient that would add even more support for JPY would likely be lower oil prices.

Takeaway: The US dollar is caught here in the crossfire of its safe haven status (USD positive) versus factors that have been thrown into reverse that were formerly supporting the USD rally (higher treasury yields, which now have just fallen steeply). This could eventually lead to a weaker US dollar if yields continue to retreat, but the USD versus risky currency equation could be choppy going if risk sentiment remains weak. Elsewhere, the potential is far greater for something interesting to develop based on the shift in global bond sentiment in the JPY and perhaps in USDJPY – see chart below.

Chart focus: USDJPY
Even as one of the key trend indicators failed recently for the Ichimoku technical overview for USDJPY, the lagging span (green line) crossing back above the price bars, the other key resistance levels have held, including the 200-day moving average in the 158.50 area and the Ichimoku cloud top near the same area. The big bounce overnight is uncomfortable for bears here, but next week is the critical time frame, given the technical setup here (test of resistance, which survived, while downside potential has yet to prove itself) and the FOMC and BoJ meetings are incoming. To the downside, the cloud level becomes “easier” to break in coming days as its lower bound rises slightly, while the lagging span will dip back through the price bars even if USDJPY stays near current levels. To get some downside momentum going, a breakdown through the 155.25-155.00 area is a next step. And the direction in bond yields may have far more to say than chart dynamics here for whether the downside materializes at all.

Source: Saxo

Looking ahead
Next week we have no fewer than five central bank meetings: FOMC, BoC, ECB, BoJ and RBNZ. And for sterling we have the autumn budget statement on Wednesday after the brutal run lower in EURGBP – is that move getting overdone in the near term?

FOMC (Wednesday). The FOMC meeting is now seen very unlikely to bring a rate hike, while the market will desperately sift through the Warsh rhetoric and the statement for clues on the thinking for December, which is now only priced at 90% likely for a hike (+22.5 bps versus a high of +38 bps for the Oct & Dec meetings combined in late September). This meeting may rate low on market reaction potential.

Bank of Canada (Wednesday): The market is leaning heavily for a rate hike next week from Macklem and company after the Governor seemed to be guiding for one in comments over this last weekend: “The question we are going to be asking ourselves is, ‘Is inflation likely to come back down towards our target on its own, or are we going to have to raise interest rates to influence the path, nudge the path for inflation back towards the target?’” He also noted the risk of persistent inflation from higher oil prices. But with the CAD outperformance already in the price, not sure how much follow-on potential there might be now that the hike is mostly priced and another hike is fully in the price through the Jan 27 meeting.

ECB (Thursday): Some ECB members have been back-pedaling from former hawkishness as the vicious rise in energy prices – remember natural gas – have clouded the economic outlook. Some usual hawkish stuff from Germany’s Schnabel, but Olli Rehn has said no second round effects in evidence and President Lagarde has stated that higher yields are already doing some of the ECB’s tightening job. The key for the euro is the sovereign yield spread situation more than the ECB here. Market not pricing anything for this meeting and looking for a December hike instead, though now with less conviction – so there is some potential for surprisingly dovish (more likely?) or hawkish guidance to move the euro in either direction.

Bank of Japan (Friday): With the retreat in global bond yields and the rise in the JPY, we see the market marking the odds of a BoJ rate hike lower – that is logical. The market is not looking for a hike at next Friday’s meeting, where I suspect intermarket forces (the combination of where US Treasury yields, risk sentiment and oil prices are) will weigh far more heavily than BoJ guidance. That guidance in turn will have a lot to do with where the JPY is as well – so look for hawkish guidance if the JPY is back lower and less hawkish guidance if the JPY is pulling to new local highs. December is still priced at better than even odds for a hike.

RBNZ: The market leaning heavily in favour of a hike after the hawkish shift in September, but watch guidance. Clear line in the sand on AUDNZD just under 1.2300 now.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

Leading the G10 FX pack now we have the NOK, which has ground stronger versus the single currency all weak as oil and gas prices ratcheted higher – EURNOK hit lowest level since late 2022. The JPY has flashed a very strong 2-day momentum reading after yesterday’s action – let’s see if it can get a persistent move higher going for the first time in a long time. Elsewhere, the euro continues to suck wind on the sovereign debt yield issue. If French bonds can finally rally, this negative focus might ease for a bit – not sure what fresh information we’ll be getting in the nearest term – and lower yields elsewhere provide some relief at the margin.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
In the new trends department, we have GBPUSD attempting to register an uptrend, but it is precisely mid-range here of the entire 2026 range and if we are lurching into a risk-off environment, do we want to have sterling exposure. Big test for sterling next week is the autumn budget statement on the 28^th. Similar comments for USDCAD, which is hitting the key 1.4000 area and the market has already priced next week’s BoC hike. The GBPJPY “uptrend” looks a red herring after yesterday’s action and could be looking at a flip to negative within a day or two if we get follow-on JPY strength. Finally, the AUDNZD uptrend in focus here – with a move through the sub-1.2300 support needed to suggest a downside breakout is developing.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Novartis results: buying lower or selling higher, when the big moves come from elsewhere

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:55:00 Z

Novartis reports its third-quarter results on 27 October 2026. Results days have been calm; its sharpest fall this year came from trial news. One investor wants to buy lower, another already owns the shares. How can each name a price and be paid to wait?

An option does not only pay for the results day. It pays for every day until it expires, and the news those days bring.

Novartis publishes its third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday 27 October 2026, before the Swiss market opens (Source: Novartis investor relations, as of 22 October 2026). The shares closed at CHF 128.88 on 22 October 2026 (Source: Saxo). In July, the company kept its 2026 outlook: sales growing slightly, and core operating income, its main profit measure, slightly lower, as cheaper copies of its heart drug Entresto take US sales (Source: Novartis, second-quarter results, 21 July 2026).

Results days have been calm for Novartis. Over the last eight, the shares typically moved about 1.9% on the day, and never more than 4.2%. The sharpest fall in that period came on another day. On 8 September 2026, after its second late-stage trial failure in a week, the shares fell 10.9% (Source: Saxo price data; Novartis, 8 September 2026). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novartis, with the 120 and 138 strike prices and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 23 October 2026.

Novartis share price move from the previous close to the close on results day, last eight results, and the 8 September 2026 trial-result day for comparison, against the range priced by the 20 November 2026 options (indicative Saxo quotes after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST). Those options run more than three weeks after the report, so the band is not a one-day estimate. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo price data, Saxo option quotes, author calculation.

What the options market expects

Option prices give a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. Add the price of the call and the put with a strike closest to today’s share price. For 20 November, that points to a move of about 6.1% in either direction, or roughly CHF 121 to CHF 137 (at the 128 strike, call CHF 4.60 plus put CHF 3.20 makes about CHF 7.80, on a share price of CHF 128.88. Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST).

That is about three times the typical results-day move. The reason is time. The first Novartis options to expire after the report run until 20 November, 24 days later. So the 6.1% covers the report and more than three weeks of other news. After September, investors know that other news can matter more than the report.

Option prices on Novartis are also high compared with their own past year (Source: Saxo, as of 22 October 2026). In our view, that may be the September falls still showing in the price. For a seller of options, a higher price means a larger payment for the same promise. It also means the market sees more risk.

What happens to the option price after the report

Part of an option’s price pays for uncertainty, including the report. Once the numbers are out, that payment usually shrinks, even if the shares hardly move. Traders call this IV crush. With Novartis, the report is one day in a 24-day option, so in our view the drop after 27 October may be modest. A seller should not count on a quick gain. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Why the 20 November expiry

The examples use the monthly Novartis options on Eurex, the European options exchange, expiring Friday 20 November 2026. Each contract covers 100 shares and is priced in Swiss francs. Saxo lists no weekly Novartis options before that date, so 20 November is the first expiry after the report. December options pay more but add another month of risk.

For the investor who wants to buy Novartis lower: a cash-secured put at 120

The idea: Novartis is worth owning, but this investor would rather buy lower than today’s price. The seller of the put agrees to buy 100 shares at CHF 120 if Novartis is below that price on 20 November. In return, the seller receives a payment today, called the premium. "Cash-secured" means the money to buy the shares is set aside.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 Novartis 20 November 2026 120 put at about CHF 0.93 per share (bid 0.76, ask 1.10), with Novartis at CHF 128.88
Net credit: about CHF 93, all from the one put (CHF 0.93 on 100 shares), against CHF 12,000 of cash set aside
Break-even at expiry: CHF 119.07, the strike less the premium, about 7.6% below the price at the time
Maximum profit: CHF 93 (hypothetical), if Novartis is at or above 120 at expiry
Maximum risk: CHF 11,907 (hypothetical), if Novartis fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST)

Why 120: it is the first listed strike below the range the market expects for the month. None of the last eight results days would have taken Novartis that low. The 8 September fall would have.

Risk: CHF 93 is the most the seller can earn. If Novartis ends below CHF 119.07, the seller loses money, as a shareholder would. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

The 120 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph, max risk, max profit and break-even. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 23 October 2026.

For the investor who already holds Novartis: a covered call at 138

The idea: this investor owns Novartis and would be happy to sell at CHF 138, about 7% higher. The seller of the call agrees to sell 100 shares at CHF 138 if Novartis is above that price on 20 November, and receives a premium today. "Covered" means the seller already owns the shares.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Own 100 Novartis shares; Sell 1 Novartis 20 November 2026 138 call at about CHF 0.96 per share (bid 0.78, ask 1.14), with Novartis at CHF 128.88
Net credit: about CHF 96, all from the one call (CHF 0.96 on 100 shares), around 0.7% of the CHF 12,888 share value
Break-even at expiry: CHF 127.92, the share price less the premium
Maximum profit: about CHF 1,008 (hypothetical) on shares and call together, if Novartis is at or above 138 at expiry
Maximum risk: CHF 12,792 (hypothetical), the share value less the premium, if Novartis fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST)

Why 138: it sits just above the range the market expects for the month. No results day in the last eight came close to a 7% rise. That is what the investor gives up: a rare jump, in exchange for a small, certain payment.

Risk: the investor retains the full downside risk of holding the shares. The premium received provides a partial offset, but it does not protect against a significant decline in the stock price. A repeat of the 10.9% fall on 8 September would cost about CHF 1,400 on 100 shares at today’s price, against CHF 96 received. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

The 138 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, which is why it reports unlimited risk: that applies only to a call sold without the shares. Held against 100 Novartis shares, a rise above 138 is covered by the shares, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 23 October 2026.

And if neither view fits

Both examples assume the investor wants to own Novartis. Another investor may think September was not the last bad news. In our view, the put may not suit that investor: CHF 93 is little comfort when buying a share that keeps falling. A holder with that view may prefer to sell some shares, or buy a put as protection, which costs money instead.

A holder who expects the shares to recover what they lost in September gives part of that rise away with the covered call. And doing nothing is always an option.

Before placing the trade, check:

The gap between the buying and selling price
How many contracts are open at that strike, a sign of how easy it is to trade
The report timing: 27 October 2026, before the Swiss market opens
Commission, charged per contract
Whether the cash is really set aside
An exit plan, decided before the report

Assignment risk note: Novartis options can be exercised on any day before expiry. So a seller may have to buy or sell the shares early if the share price passes the strike. Only the seller of an option faces this.

Final thoughts

The two examples are one idea seen from both sides. The put seller names a lower price to buy at, the call seller a higher price to sell at, and both are paid for the uncertainty of the coming weeks, not only the report.

That is the point Novartis makes clearly this year. Results days have been calm; the sharp move came from news on an ordinary day. In our view, selling an option on Novartis may suit only an investor comfortable owning the shares after a day like 8 September. Either position can be closed early if the view changes. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Related articles/content
CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries \| 21 Oct 2026 Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 20 Oct 2026 SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 16 Oct 2026 TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait \| 29 Sep 2026 Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener \| 18 Sep 2026 What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 -- Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

Related articles/content

CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries | 21 Oct 2026
Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 20 Oct 2026
SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 16 Oct 2026
TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait | 29 Sep 2026

Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener | 18 Sep 2026

What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version | 9 April 2026
Trading earnings with defined | 31 Mar 2026
--
Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026
Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles Theme - Crypto and blockchain ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - Chipmakers tumble and the ten-year drops below 5% - 23 October 2026

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:20:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US Treasuries rally, US jobless claims fell and Japanese inflation picked up
Equities: US equities fell sharply as concerns over AI spending and rising oil prices weighed on technology stocks and global sentiment.
Volatility: Index gauges jumped right across the curve with the one-day measure rising by a third
Digital Assets: Tokens firmed overnight while the listed crypto shares and the miners were sold heavily
Commodities: Oil climbs on Middle East tensions as gold and copper extend losses
Fixed Income: Huge US treasury rally on risk sentiment shift.
Currencies: JPY, CHF and NOK advance, USD sideways

Macro

US Treasuries staged their strongest rally in more than two years as an AI-led equity selloff, French market turmoil and renewed Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand. Short-term yields fell as much as 20 basis points, while the 10-year yield recorded its biggest daily decline since August 2024, dropping below 5% for the first time in a month. Growing doubts about the sustainability and returns of AI investment accelerated the rotation from equities into bonds.
US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000 in the week to 17 October, below expectations and the lowest since mid-July, which has been cited as evidence of labour market resilience. Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million in the week to 10 October.
Japan's annual inflation rose to 2.1% in September from 1.9%, the highest since December 2025, with core inflation excluding fresh food also at 2.1%, just above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Monthly consumer prices were flat.
Australia's services PMI fell to 47.8 in October from 51.9, moving into contraction. New business growth slowed, with weaker demand, higher borrowing costs and inflation cited, while employment and both input and output prices rose.
Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and the possibility of renewed US strikes on Iran have been cited as raising Middle East supply risk, although Persian Gulf crude exports remain near prewar levels. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian refineries, against a reported US to Russia diesel supply arrangement.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Sept Retail Sales
S&P Global Preliminary PMIs: France (0715), Germany (0730), Eurozone (0800), and the UK (0830)
0800 – ECB CPI Expectations
1345 – US Oct PMI (Preliminary)
1400 – University of Michigan Sentiment for October

Earnings events

Today: American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB

Next week

Monday: Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Tuesday: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx
Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.2% on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.9%, and the Dow was broadly unchanged as rising oil prices and renewed concerns over artificial intelligence investments weighed on technology stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.7%, while Meta fell 7.0% despite stronger-than-expected revenue, as investors questioned its $135–145 billion annual capital spending plans and decision to introduce non-voting shares to help finance its AI expansion. Tesla declined 3.1% despite cutting its 2026 spending plans, as investors assessed its profitability and future AI investments, with attention increasingly turning to whether massive technology spending can deliver sustainable returns.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1% on Thursday, Germany's DAX lost 1.1%, and the UK's FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% as rising oil prices, French political uncertainty and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. Banks led the decline, with Barclays down 2.3% after weaker-than-expected quarterly profit, while luxury group Hermès dropped almost 5% as sales disappointed. ASML lost 5% amid the global semiconductor selloff, but London Stock Exchange Group gained 7.7% after raising its revenue outlook, highlighting how company-specific news still created winners in difficult markets. Attention now turns to upcoming earnings for further clues about demand and profit margins.
Asia: Asian equities also retreated on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.6%, while South Korea's Kospi rebounded sharply from an early decline of nearly 4% to trade broadly flat. SK Hynix surged 3.8%, reversing earlier losses despite broader concerns over AI spending and semiconductor demand. In Japan, defensive stocks such as Kao and Secom outperformed as investors sought more stable businesses. Meanwhile, Australia's Zip plunged after disclosing a fraud incident in its US operations Taiwan's market remained closed because of a typhoon, while investors looked ahead to further technology earnings for signs of resilience.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Volatility rose broadly alongside the risk-off move. VIX rose 14.09% to 19.03, VIX9D 21.76% to 18.86 and VIX1D 33.39% to 15.18. VVIX added 14.16% to 107.94, SKEW 1.35%. MOVE jumped 11.36% to 106.85, with VXN up 17.61% and GVZ 13.06%.
The cash curve held contango from VIX1D to VIX1Y at 22.62, VIX3M at 20.12, though the front future at 19.410 sits above the second at 19.270. SPX options imply 55.45 points, or 0.723%, for today's expiry and 145.40 points, or 1.895%, into Friday 30 October, covering next week's Federal Reserve decision.
The futures curve carries a kink at the front: November trades near 19.4, above December near 19.2, as the 28 October FOMC, megacap earnings and the 3 November midterms all fall inside the November window. S&P 500 realised volatility runs near 16.6 on a 20-day basis, leaving implied volatility only about 2.4 points above realised. Brent near $112 keeps an energy risk in the mix.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~81,871 +0.64% | ETHEREUM ~2,410 +0.95% | IBIT 46.06 -3.72% | ETHA 53.88 -4.52% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Tokens edged higher overnight while the listed crypto complex was sold hard through the US session. Miners led the decline, CIFR off 8.87%, IREN 8.37% and RIOT 8.06%, with CleanSpark and MARA both near 7% lower. Strategy fell 5.00% and Coinbase 4.51%, while Circle lost 3.44%.
US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of USD 635m on 22 October, the largest single source being BlackRock's IBIT at USD 254m. Ether ETFs have shed about USD 1.08bn across October, reported as their largest monthly outflow of 2026.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades above USD 114 and is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain as intensifying attacks on Saudi Arabia raise the risk of wider Middle East supply disruptions. Iran-backed Houthi militants have claimed responsibility for recent attacks on the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, as well as deadly strikes on an oil field and airport in the kingdom. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported this week that the US and Israel have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections early next month. WTI trades firmer at USD 100.50, leaving the Brent premium near USD 13.60.
Precious metals: Spot gold dipped below USD 4,000 during the Asian session as momentum-driven and technical selling accelerated following Thursday's break below support around USD 4,060, triggering further long liquidation. For now, the inflationary impact of rising energy prices continues to outweigh support from safe-haven demand and the short-covering-driven rally in bonds. Silver has fallen to an 11-month low near USD 54, while the gold-silver ratio has climbed to an 11-month high above 74, highlighting silver's relative weakness.
Copper: HG copper trades near USD 6.46 per pound after breaking below support around USD 6.52 on Thursday and is heading for its third weekly decline in four weeks. The AI-led equity selloff has weighed on short-term risk appetite, partly reflecting concerns that a slowdown in data centre investment could weaken future copper demand. Additional uncertainty surrounds whether Washington will refrain from imposing tariffs on refined copper imports. Such a decision could potentially release some of the substantial copper inventories accumulated in the US back into the global market, easing to supply tightness elsewhere.
The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a modest weekly loss but remains up more than 34% year-to-date. The energy sector is once again doing the heavy lifting, led by gasoil and Brent, while all other sectors are trading lower. Losses are led by precious metals, with silver down 5.5%, and grains, where wheat has slumped 5%. Meanwhile, performance across industrial metals and softs is mixed, with copper and sugar declining while most other commodities have gained, most notably nickel and coffee.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries rallied strongly Thursday as risk sentiment in the equity market cratered. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped nearly 20 basis points at one point to 4.61% before rebounding to the 4.65% area by early Friday, while the benchmark 10-year yield trades early Friday some 16 basis points below its Wednesday close at 4.96%, the first daily close below 5.0% in a month.
Germany-France sovereign yield spreads widened again Thursday, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle since 2012, up over fifteen basis points to over 174 basis points. The benchmark French 10-year OAT sovereign bond yield rose to new 24-year highs, posting a 5.14% high intraday before rolling back below 5.08%. The Germany-Italy 10-year spread posted its highest daily close since early 2025, rising eight basis points to 124 basis points.
US High Yield bond yields failed to rally together with US treasuries, sending the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries sharply higher, up 11 basis points and to thie highest level since April 2025.

Currencies

The US dollar traded mostly sideways as its traditional safe haven role conflicted with recent drivers of its strength, like the higher oil prices that formerly helped to drive US treasury yields higher. EURUSD remains frozen in its tracks just above 1.1200, while AUDUSD dipped back closer to 0.7000, still trading just above that level early Friday.
The strongest currencies Thursday were NOK, CHF and JPY. NOK continued its persistent rally as EURNOK dipped below 10.50 Thursday for the first time since late 2022, while CHF and JPY jolted stronger on the combination of weak risk sentiment and lower global bond yields. EURCHF dropped below its 200-day moving average near 0.9240 that had supported the price action earlier this week, trading below 0.9200 at one point before finding support. USDJPY traded as low as 156.08 early Friday after a steep sell-off Thursday from above 158.00, though it bounced to the 156.90 area by early Friday, while EURJPY dipped as low as 175.20 before rebounding to 175.90.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

The markdown was all in the wings - Options Brief - 22 October 2026

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

Crash protection got ten points cheaper on Wednesday while the price of the next two sessions barely moved. Yesterday’s flow, where it had a readable side, was still buying downside.

The cheapest thing in the option market on Wednesday was protection against a crash.

MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 16.68 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.36) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.700

Today in brief

The short version. Friday’s at-the-money price on the S&P 500 came off by close to what one fewer session alone would take, so in our view implied volatility at the money barely moved. What did move sat away from the money: CBOE SKEW down 10.04 points to 150.36, the tail-risk index down 11.50% and the bond gauge down 5.66% to 95.95.

Markets. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,757.17 on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 1.13% on results. After the close Meta gained 2.2% and Tesla slipped 3.3% despite beating on profit. Asia then reversed it: the Kospi fell more than 3%, the Nikkei around 2% and the Hang Seng 2.7%, with SK Hynix off nearly 6%. Brent sits above 111 after a drone strike on a Saudi oil field.

Volatility curve. The cash curve fell in the middle and held at both ends. VIX9D lost 4.79% to 15.49 and the thirty-day 3.64% to 16.68, while the one-day gauge rose 1.61% to 11.38 and the one-year was unchanged at 22.03. The VIX future series rolled on Wednesday, so the front is November at 18.700.

Single names. On an identical 187 US underlyings the median implied-volatility rank fell to 42.8 from 46.1, and on the common set of 337 euro-zone names to 45.9 from 49.0. The typical single name stepped back from its own year by about three points of rank, on both sides of the Atlantic.

Flow. Yesterday’s ten reports gave no readable direction, with the largest lines rolls and mid-market prints. Where a side was marked it was downside being bought, in financials, consumer staples and energy, which runs the other way from the markdown.

This week’s range. Three sessions in, the S&P 500 has used 82% of the 1.56% priced for the week and the bitcoin fund 96%, both upward, against energy at 4%.

Earnings and catalysts. Novartis is priced at 1.5x its own eight-report history into Tuesday and Apple at 0.4x into 29 October. Today brings US weekly jobless claims at 14:30 CET and ten sets of results, including Valero at the top of the US rank board.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.535% and Friday’s 0.768%, against 73.80 points quoted for that same Friday a session ago when decay alone would have left about 60.3. In our view the option market cut the price of protection it is not using and left the next two sessions alone.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,757.17 on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.13%, as results rather than macro drove the session’s news. SpaceX jumped 7.8% after its first profit as a public company and Super Micro Computer 9.6% on stronger guidance. After the close Meta gained 2.2% on strong results, a larger artificial-intelligence investment plan and a proposed two-for-one split of its non-voting shares. Tesla slipped 3.3% despite beating on profit, its reduced capital-spending plans disappointing.

Asia then reversed the lot. By the European morning the Kospi was down more than 3%, the Nikkei 225 around 2% and the Hang Seng 2.7%, with Samsung Electronics off more than 4%, SK Hynix nearly 6%, SoftBank 5.6% and Tokyo Electron 5.9%. The question being asked is whether spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure converts into profit. The Bank of Korea left rates at 3%.

Market snapshot

US (Wednesday 21 October close): S&P 500 7,757.17, up 0.58%. Nasdaq 100 29,822.52, up 1.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,861.30, up 0.69%. Technology led at 1.67% and semiconductors gained 1.89%, while communication services fell 1.11% and the equal-weighted S&P managed 0.34%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.92% to 644.50 and the Euro Stoxx 50 1.40%, with the DAX up 1.35% and the CAC 40 1.06%. Randstad gained 20.2% and EssilorLuxottica 15.5% on results, Carrefour fell 13.8%, and the French ten-year closed at 5.013%, its first close above 5% in more than twenty-four years, taking the German to French spread to its widest since 2012.
Asia (Thursday morning): the Hang Seng was down 2.87% at 22,971.93, its Tech index 4.64%, the Kospi 2.85% and the CSI 300 1.26%.
Commodities and rates: Brent traded at 110.52 and WTI at 98.52 at the 06:00 CET pull, up 1.56% and 1.41%, and Brent pushed above 111 later in the morning after a drone strike on a Saudi oil field. Gold eased 0.99% to 4,109.10 and silver 2.21% to 56.44. The US ten-year yield was 5.086%, the thirty-year 5.380% and the two-year 4.780%. Bitcoin slipped 2.02% to 82,905.
Market regime: low volatility bull, the VIX at 16.68, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 150.36.

All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 22 October 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The two largest moves of the session were both measures of the tail. CBOE SKEW fell 10.04 points to 150.36 and the tail-risk index 11.50% to 15.33, with VVIX off 2.68%. The cash curve came down in the middle and held at the ends: VIX9D lost 4.79% to 15.49 and the thirty-day 3.64% to 16.68, while VIX1D rose 1.61% to 11.38 and the one-year held at 22.03, near the top of its sixty-session range.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.68 against 0.65, so the day is priced richer relative to the month than it was. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.12 from 1.10 as the front fell away from the back. VXN/VIX held at 1.46, the Nasdaq gauge at 24.42.

VIX futures. The series rolled during Wednesday’s session, so the front is November at 18.700 and the second December at 18.830, a ratio of 0.995. Against the same November contract at 18.650 a session ago the front barely moved while spot fell 0.63, widening the premium to spot to 2.02 points from 1.34. That window carries the 28 October Federal Reserve decision.

Rates and correlation. The bond gauge fell 5.66% to 95.95 and gold volatility 2.15% to 21.36, while oil volatility rose 2.25% to 53.28, now 3.20 times the equity gauge against 3.01. Correlation and dispersion were near unchanged at 12.83 and 37.14.

Single-name volatility

On an identical 187 US option underlyings read this morning, the median implied-volatility rank fell to 42.8 from 46.1, and the share of names above rank 50 dropped to 36.9% from 42.2%. The share below rank 20 rose to 16.0% from 12.3%. On the common set of 337 euro-zone names, where the universe changed by one name between runs, the median fell to 45.9 from 49.0 and the share above 50 to 42.7% from 48.4%.

So the index measures above did not move alone. The typical single name also stepped back from its own year, on both sides of the Atlantic, by roughly the same three points of rank.

The US median rank is 42.8 while the median percentile is 58.3, which is not a contradiction. Rank measures where today sits between the year’s highest and lowest readings; percentile measures how many days of the year were lower. A single spike sets the high and pulls every rank down, so a name can sit below the midpoint of its range and above the midpoint of its days at once.

A handful of names sit the other way round, with rank well under percentile. The high-yield credit fund reads rank 24 against percentile 76, the seven-to-ten year Treasury fund 52 against 90 and the biotech fund 39 against 77. In our view those are the quietly expensive corners: far from this year’s extremes, yet above almost every day of it.

Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 21 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the largest lines are rolls, one order printed many times, and mid-market lines with no side, several carrying a conviction label of two or three out of five, and removing one block changes the headline call-versus-put split in both the energy and the semiconductor sets.
Sector and ETF flow leans the other way from the markdown. Where a side was marked, it was downside being bought rather than sold: long-dated puts stacked across the financials fund and the money-centre banks together, opening put buying in consumer staples spanning the Federal Reserve meeting, and ask-side put buying in energy. One caveat matters: the pipeline drops closing trades, so this set cannot show hedges being lifted even where they were.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Three sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Wednesday’s close. Straddles are read from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Three sessions in, the S&P 500 has used 82% of the 119.13 points, 1.56%, priced around Friday’s close, against three of five sessions gone, all of it upward.

The bitcoin fund has used 96%, closing at 47.84 against an upper bound of 47.91, so that band may be effectively finished with two sessions left. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 84%, also upward, and gold 39% downward. Energy has used 4%, the quietest row in a week when Brent rose.

The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month and is not comparable with the five above it.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

Today's catalysts

08:45 CET France October confidence surveys.
13:00 CET Turkey central bank rate decision.
14:30 CET US weekly initial jobless claims, the only US data point of the session.
01:01 CET Friday UK October GfK consumer confidence, then Japan’s September national CPI at 01:30 and the October flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 02:30.
Earnings today: Procter and Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify and Atlas Copco. Friday brings ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni and SLB.

Two of today’s names sit at the extremes of the volatility board. Valero carries the highest implied-volatility rank of the 187 US underlyings at 98.4, and Newmont reports into a gold price that eased on Wednesday.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, for the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether an upcoming expected move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The spread between what is priced and what each name has actually done runs from 1.5x to 0.4x. Novartis is the richest, at 3.2% into next Tuesday against an eight-report average of 2.1%. Apple is the cheapest, at 1.0% into 29 October against an average of 2.5%, with Microsoft next at 4.5% against 7.0%.

Implied-volatility rank and the event premium answer different questions, and this week they disagree. Roche carries a rank of 79 and Nestle 72, both among the highest on the board, yet their expected moves are 1.6% and 3.8%. Novo Nordisk sits at rank 28 with a 5.7% expected move, above its own 5.0% average. Rank measures the year; the event premium measures one day.

Next up are Novartis on Tuesday, then UBS and Alphabet on Wednesday, Microsoft the same evening, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: SPX options price 41.50 points, 0.535%, for today’s expiry, a level comparison only against the 41.15 points quoted for yesterday’s, since the two are different contracts.
Event implied range: Friday’s expiry prices 59.60 points, 0.768%, and stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision. A session ago the same expiry was quoted at 73.80 points with three sessions left rather than two. The clock alone would have left about 60.3, so roughly 0.7 of a point came out beyond the decay.
Tail risk signal: SKEW at 150.36 after a 10.04 point fall, with the tail-risk index down 11.50% the same session. Both stay high in absolute terms, so in our view this is a tail that got cheaper rather than one that was abandoned.
Correlation read: implied correlation at 12.83 against dispersion at 37.14, both close to unchanged, so in our view the index is still priced as names that disagree rather than as one object.

The shape of Wednesday’s repricing is clean. Friday’s at-the-money price came off by close to what one fewer session alone would take, so in our view implied volatility at the money barely moved. What moved sat in the wings: ten points off the crash gauge, a tenth off the tail index, the bond gauge down 5.66%.

In our view that is a market cutting the price of protection it is not using while leaving the next two sessions alone. Yesterday’s flow, where a side could be read, was still buying downside.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Cancellation not calm - Options Brief - 21 October 2026 The front end drains the tails do not - Options Brief - 20 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Chip stocks sold off after key earnings - 22 October 2026 Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards - 21 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

The price of the future: what Meta and Tesla's earnings reveal

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Meta's advertising engine is funding its AI ambitions, but rising spending raises the bar for future returns.
Tesla's profits remain under pressure, as investors weigh today's car business against tomorrow's robots and autonomous driving.
The real question is not who spends more, but who can turn investment into lasting profits.

Some companies invest in the future. Others seem determined to build several futures at once.

Meta and Tesla delivered their third-quarter earnings on 21 October 2026, offering investors two fascinating examples of this ambition.

Meta, the company behind Facebook and Instagram, is using its profitable advertising business to finance an artificial intelligence empire. Tesla, best known for electric cars, increasingly wants to become a leader in autonomous driving, robotics and AI.

Both are spending heavily. But their financial foundations, and the evidence supporting their ambitions, look rather different.

Meta: the money machine meets the spending machine

Meta's advertising business remains remarkably strong.

Revenue jumped 26% to 64.6 billion USD, helped by more advertisements and higher prices. AI is already improving recommendations and helping advertisers reach potential customers more effectively.

That matters. Meta is not simply hoping AI will eventually generate revenue. Parts of its investment are already improving the business that pays the bills. But those bills are getting considerably larger.

Meta now expects capital expenditure, mainly spending on infrastructure such as data centres and chips, of 135 billion to 145 billion USD in 2026. Its quarterly free cash flow, the money remaining after investment spending, turned negative at 2.1 billion USD.

A large legal charge also distorted reported profits. Excluding a 9.9 billion USD settlement-related expense, operating profit reached approximately 22.9 billion USD, representing a healthy 35% margin.

Meanwhile, its new AI assistant, Muse, has attracted more than 10 million registered users. The challenge now is turning engagement into profitable revenue.

Meta's proposed new non-voting share class adds another consideration: the company could raise capital while preserving Mark Zuckerberg's control.

The investor lesson: a profitable core business can finance ambitious projects, but growing revenue does not automatically translate into growing cash for shareholders.

Tesla: the future looks exciting, the present less so

Tesla's numbers tell a different story.

Revenue remained broadly flat at 28 billion USD, while reported net profit dropped around 43% to 787 million USD. The company delivered approximately 487,000 vehicles, demonstrating resilient demand. Yet operating profit fell 56%, highlighting the pressure from investment costs and the challenges facing its automotive business.

There were encouraging signs. Gross margins improved and Tesla generated 1.5 billion USD in free cash flow, despite quarterly capital expenditure more than doubling to 4.7 billion USD.

Tesla also reduced its expected full-year investment spending from 25 billion to 20 billion USD. But the investment story increasingly extends beyond cars. Autonomous taxis, Optimus humanoid robots and AI software could eventually create new revenue streams with different economics from manufacturing vehicles.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX are exploring a potential merger. That creates another strategic question: would combining the businesses unlock valuable opportunities or increase complexity?

The investor lesson: Tesla's valuation increasingly depends on businesses whose future profitability remains difficult to measure. Progress in technology matters, but commercial adoption matters more.

Different businesses, surprisingly similar risks

Meta faces the risk that AI infrastructure costs grow faster than the profits they generate. Advertising growth, operating margins and free cash flow are useful early warning signs.

Tesla faces weaker vehicle profitability, execution challenges in autonomous driving and uncertainty around future investment requirements. Investors can monitor vehicle margins, commercial robotaxi adoption and cash generation.

Both companies also face a familiar risk: expectations. Even excellent products can disappoint shareholders when valuations already assume exceptional future success.

Investor playbook: follow the money

Separate today's profits from tomorrow's promises. Understand which businesses generate cash and which still consume it.
Watch spending efficiency. Rising investment becomes more convincing when revenue, margins and cash flow improve.
Consider expectations. Strong companies can still deliver disappointing returns when investors pay too much for future growth.
Mind concentration. Several technology holdings may depend on the same assumptions about AI adoption and spending.

The future still needs to pay the bills

Meta and Tesla are pursuing different versions of the future, but their earnings reveal a common challenge.

Meta has a powerful advertising engine generating substantial profits while its AI ambitions consume increasingly large amounts of capital. Tesla has an established automotive business, but much of its investment appeal increasingly rests on technologies that have yet to demonstrate their full commercial potential.

Neither approach guarantees success or failure.

For investors, the distinction matters because innovation and shareholder returns are not always the same thing. The most important question is rarely whether a company's vision sounds exciting. Both certainly do. It is whether that vision eventually produces more cash than it costs to build. The future may capture imaginations. But only profits can reward investors.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key Points:

AI jitters weigh on copper: Technology sector weakness and US tariff uncertainty challenge copper's bullish outlook, despite resilient physical fundamentals.
Energy supply risks intensify: Middle East escalation drives oil to five-month highs, while European gas remains vulnerable to winter supply disruptions.
Gold's investor divide deepens: Speculative selling continues to outweigh persistent ETF demand, despite growing geopolitical and fiscal risks.
Commodities retain their portfolio appeal: Supply constraints, inflation risks and positive roll returns in backwardated markets support the case for tactical exposure.

Global commodity markets are becoming increasingly divided as investors confront weakening risk appetite, renewed geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of crowded speculative positions. While concerns about AI investment are weighing on copper and industrial metals, escalating Middle East tensions have lifted crude oil to a five-month high. Meanwhile, gold continues to struggle despite persistent ETF demand, while agriculture has suffered a sharp reversal driven by harvest pressure and speculative liquidation.

AI concerns challenge copper's bullish narrative

The Nasdaq's latest tumble of more than 500 points highlights growing concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom, with potential implications extending well beyond technology shares.

High grade copper, down 2.4% and breaking below recent support around USD 6.50 per pound, has been caught between two sources of uncertainty. First, investors are questioning whether the US will proceed with tariffs on refined copper, potentially undermining the tariff-driven stockpiling that has helped support prices. Second, concerns about a slowdown in AI and data centre investment are challenging an increasingly important source of expected future demand.

However, there is a distinction between weakening investor sentiment and deteriorating physical fundamentals. Copper continues to benefit from electrification, grid expansion and constrained mine supply, while much of the world's visible exchange inventory remains concentrated in the US. The current weakness may therefore reflect a deflation of previously elevated expectations rather than a fundamental drop in demand.

Oil defies broader risk aversion

While growth-sensitive commodities struggle, crude oil is moving in the opposite direction. Brent has reached a five-month high above USD 112 as escalating Middle East tensions and the threat of further US military action raise concerns about renewed supply disruptions.

Despite recovering shipments from the region, the global oil market remains vulnerable. Shipping attacks, elevated freight costs and the risk of damage to critical energy infrastructure continue to threaten supply chains, while tight refined-product markets, particularly diesel, amplify the potential consequences of another disruption.

European natural gas faces similar risks, with relatively low storage levels leaving the region more dependent on continued imports throughout winter. A prolonged cold spell, combined with renewed disruptions to LNG shipments, could trigger another sharp increase in prices from the current level around EUR 90 per MWh ≈ USD 29.50 per MMBtu.

This creates an uncomfortable backdrop for financial markets. Higher energy prices are increasingly a source of pressure on both equities and bonds, reflecting the risk that another inflationary shock could limit central banks' ability to ease monetary policy. After several years of above-target inflation, investors can no longer assume that weaker growth expectations will automatically translate into lower borrowing costs.

In that sense, energy remains an important portfolio hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks, even as elevated prices ultimately threaten economic activity and demand.

Gold caught between speculative selling and strategic demand

Gold's inability to capitalise on the latest bout of risk aversion remains a key focus. Despite softer Treasury yields, a slightly weaker dollar and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, bullion is, for the third time this month, struggling below USD 4,100.

The explanation lies partly in the contrasting behaviour of different investor groups. Short-term macro-focused traders remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations, currency movements and technical signals, while longer-term investors continue to accumulate gold through ETFs as protection against fiscal instability, geopolitical risks and currency debasement.

The latest surge in French government borrowing costs reinforces the latter argument. France's 10-year yield has risen above 5% for the first time in 24 years, while its spread over Germany has widened towards 170 basis points, highlighting growing concerns about fiscal sustainability.

For now, speculative selling continues to more than offset strategic demand, with positioning data highlighting the divergence between the two investor groups. Since 25 August, managed money accounts, including hedge funds and CTAs, have reduced their net long exposure by 4 million ounces, while bullion-backed ETF holdings monitored by Bloomberg have risen by 2.3 million ounces. The persistence of ETF inflows despite weaker prices suggests that the underlying investment case remains intact. Once the current wave of speculative liquidation subsides, longer-term buyers may regain greater influence over price direction.

Agriculture: Positioning pressure meets weather risks

Agricultural commodities, particularly grains, have suffered a sharp reversal over the past six weeks, with the Bloomberg Grains Index falling 14% and almost fully reversing August's explosive rally. Harvest pressure and improving supply expectations have triggered a substantial unwinding of speculative positions, with the combined managed money net long across six major grain and soybean futures contracts falling from a record above one million contracts to around 750,000 in the latest reporting week.

The correction illustrates how positioning can amplify fundamental developments, with falling prices encouraging further long liquidation and adding to downward pressure. However, despite the recent weakness, the longer-term supply outlook remains exposed to several risks.

The ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Russia–Ukraine, the potential emergence of a powerful Super El Niño and the possibility of renewed food export restrictions could all disrupt agricultural production and trade. While current supply conditions have weighed on prices, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and weather-related threats, in our opinion, leaves room for renewed volatility and potential price recoveries.

Commodities retain their role as a portfolio hedge

The divergence across commodity markets highlights an increasingly complex investment environment. Growth concerns are weighing on industrial metals and agriculture, while geopolitical tensions continue to support energy prices and strategic demand underpins gold.

Importantly, commodities can offer protection against risks that traditional portfolios may struggle to absorb. Supply-driven energy inflation can hurt both equities and bonds, while geopolitical disruptions, extreme weather and trade restrictions create upside risks across several commodity sectors.

In our opinion, the case for tactical commodity exposure therefore remains relevant, although the outlook for individual sectors is increasingly fragmented and the potential benefits must be weighed against downside risks. We favour broad-based commodity exposure while maintaining a particular focus on markets where rising demand meets persistent supply constraints, potentially driving structural upward price pressure and attractive investment returns.

For futures-based commodity investments, total returns reflect not only changes in the underlying commodity price but also the roll return earned or lost when expiring contracts are replaced, together with interest earned on cash collateral. In markets trading in backwardation, where longer-dated futures are cheaper than nearby contracts, this rolling process can generate a positive return as futures prices converge towards spot prices, assuming the curve remains unchanged. Conversely, contango can create a negative roll return. Persistent supply tightness can therefore offer investors a potential double benefit: price appreciation and positive roll returns, even during periods when spot prices are broadly unchanged.

What could go wrong? Risks to the commodity outlook

The constructive case is not without significant risks. A deeper slowdown in global growth, potentially triggered by a broader correction in technology shares or reduced AI-related investment, could weaken demand for industrial metals and energy. Equally, a de-escalation of Middle East tensions, accompanied by sustained improvements in oil shipments and refined-product availability, could remove a substantial portion of the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting energy prices.

Gold could face renewed pressure if the dollar and real yields rise, or if persistent weakness forces further speculative liquidation, while agricultural prices may remain subdued if favourable harvests and ample supplies outweigh weather-related concerns.

Finally, futures-based commodity investments carry risks beyond spot price movements. Backwardation is not guaranteed to persist, and a shift towards contango could turn positive roll returns into a drag on performance. Commodities can also fall alongside equities during broad risk-off episodes, meaning their diversification benefits are neither constant nor guaranteed. These risks reinforce the importance of balancing tactical opportunities against the possibility of sharp price reversals.

Brent crude and fuel prices - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Copper remains in a strong uptrend despite breaking below USD 6.52/lb. - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Spot Gold - Source: Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Implied roll yield across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Related articles/content
19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026 16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets 15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks 14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness 12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

19 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026
16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets
15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks
14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness
12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Copper Mining Gold Silver Theme - Precious metals Energy (Sector) Soybean Natural Gas Gas Oil Gasoline

Market Quick Take - Chip stocks sold off after key earnings - 22 October 2026

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 06:35:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: UK inflation came in hotter than forecast while a Saudi oil field was attacked
Equities: US and European equities rallied on strong earnings, while Asian markets retreated as concerns over artificial intelligence spending resurfaced.
Volatility: Most index gauges eased back while crude volatility pushed in the other direction
Digital Assets: Listed crypto shares rallied through the US session while the tokens slipped back overnight
Commodities: Brent tops USD 111 on renewed supply fears while gold struggles below USD 4,100
Fixed Income: France’s 10-year yield hits 24-year high above 5.0%
Currencies: USD slightly weaker, USDJPY pokes near two-weeks lows overnight.

Macro

UK annual inflation rose to 3.5% year-on-year in September 2026, the highest since October 2025 and above the 3.4% forecast, led by higher transport and motor fuel costs, with core CPI up to 2.8%.
A deadly drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have raised supply risks, but rising Middle East crude exports and Russia’s planned diesel shipment to the US may limit further oil price gains. The US ordered some staff to leave Gulf embassies amid rising tensions, while continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment even as oil flows there exceeded pre-war levels
New Zealand’s annual inflation slowed to 3.7% in Q3 2026 from 4.1%, just below the 3.8% forecast but still above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target, with quarterly CPI easing to 0.7%.
The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 9 bps to 7.41% in the week to October 16, 2026, its first decline in 11 weeks as Treasury yields eased. Total mortgage applications slid 5.3%, with refis down 2% and purchase applications down 7.3%.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0645 – France Oct. Confidence Surveys
1100 – Turkey Central Bank Rate Decision
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
2301 – UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence
2330 – Japan Sep. National CPI
0030 – Japan Oct. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI

Earnings events

Today: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco
Friday: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: US equities gained on Wednesday as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,757.17, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.1% and the Dow climbed 0.7% on upbeat earnings. SpaceX jumped 7.8% after posting its first profit as a public company, while Super Micro Computer climbed 9.6% on stronger sales and margin guidance. After hours, Tesla slipped 3.3% despite beating profit estimates as reduced capital spending plans disappointed. Musk also confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX had formed independent committees to explore a potential merger, although no agreement had been reached. Meta gained 2.2% following strong results, increased AI investment plans and a proposed two-for-one stock split involving non-voting shares.
Europe: European equities rallied on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.9% to 644.49, the DAX gaining 1.3%, the CAC 40 advancing 1.1% and the FTSE 100 edging up 0.2%, as strong earnings helped offset political uncertainty in France. Randstad surged 20.2% after quarterly growth exceeded expectations, while EssilorLuxottica jumped 15.5% on strong sales, lifting luxury shares. SAP gained 3.5% amid renewed technology optimism, but Carrefour plunged 13.8% after warning that unrest in France would hurt earnings. French government bond yields reaching 5% and higher UK inflation kept fiscal and interest-rate risks in focus, even as investors welcomed encouraging corporate results.
Asia: Asian equities reversed Wednesday's rebound during Thursday trading, with South Korea's Kospi down more than 3%, Japan's Nikkei 225 losing around 2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 2.7%, as concerns over the profitability of massive AI investments resurfaced. Technology shares led declines, with Samsung Electronics slipping more than 4%, while SK Hynix falling nearly 6% as investors questioned the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. In Japan, SoftBank Group lost 5.6% and Tokyo Electron declined 5.9%, while rising oil prices added pressure across regional markets. South Korea's central bank kept rates unchanged at 3%, while attention now turns to further US earnings for evidence that AI investments can translate into sustainable profits.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Crude firmed after the Saudi attack, yet index volatility eased. VIX fell 3.64% to 16.68 and VIX9D dropped 4.79% to 15.49, while VIX1D rose 1.61% to 11.38. VVIX slipped 2.68% to 94.55 and SKEW eased 6.26% to 150.36. Cross-asset gauges split, with MOVE down 5.66% to 95.95 and OVX up 2.25% to 53.28.
The cash curve holds contango from VIX1D through VIX1Y at 22.03, with VIX3M at 18.72. After the roll, the front VIX future prints 18.70. SPX options imply 41.50 points, or 0.535%, for today's expiry and 59.60 points, or 0.768%, into Friday's flash PMIs.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~82,806 -1.43% | ETHEREUM ~2,441 -1.21% | IBIT 47.84 +2.42% | ETHA 56.43 +2.47% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Listed crypto equities advanced through the US session even as the tokens eased overnight, with bitcoin retracing after peaking above 84,000. Strategy led at 7.54%, with Coinbase up 3.65%, Circle 4.47%, IREN 4.58% and Bitmine 5.00%. Miners were broadly firmer, MARA adding 4.14% and CleanSpark 3.80%.
On the regulatory front, the OCC finalised its GENIUS Act payment-stablecoin rule on 21 October, effective 18 January 2027. Swiss regulator FINMA has approved the country's first retail spot bitcoin ETF, and BlackRock has filed for a protected-exposure IBIT product.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades back above USD 111 a barrel, up 2%, after a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field which left operations unaffected, while a separate attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one. Both incidents highlight the risk of further escalation that could disrupt supply. Prices whipsawed again on Wednesday following another unsubstantiated report of a potential Qatar-Pakistan peace proposal. Meanwhile, the EIA reported a hurricane Isaias-related weekly drop of 0.4 mb/d in US crude production. Distillate inventories recovered from a record seasonal low, while gasoline stocks fell to their lowest level since 2014. Both gasoil and ULSD (HO) remain near USD 200 a barrel, highlighting continued tightness in refined-product markets.
Metals: Spot gold fell 1.3% to around USD 4,090 an ounce as rising energy prices added to inflation and interest-rate concerns, triggering further speculative selling. This pressure has only been partly offset by continued ETF demand, with Bloomberg data showing an 11.4-tonne increase in holdings this week to a fresh four-year high. The key question now is whether gold can find support below USD 4,100 for a third time this month, or whether we may witness a sustained break. Silver dropped 3% to USD 56.20, while copper slipped 1.5% to USD 6.48 a pound.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rose slightly Wednesday, but were lower again into early Thursday hours on wobbly risk sentiment, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield peaking at 4.83% Wednesday before closing up over two basis points and just above 4.80% and then rolling back lower to below 4.78% early Thursday. At the longer end of the yield curve, the 10-year treasury yield ended Wednesday only one basis point higher at 5.12% after a choppy session and dropped back to 5.08% early Thursday. A Treasury auction of 20-year notes drew solid demand.
Germany-France sovereign yield spreads widened again Wednesday, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle since 2012, up over six basis points to over 159 basis points. The benchmark French 10-year OAT sovereign bond yield rose eight basis points Wednesday to close at 5.013%, its first daily close above 5.0% in over 24 years.

Currencies

The US dollar weakened slightly Wednesday and early Thursday, with EURUSD little changed but slightly higher from Wednesday’s close near 1.1245 early Thursday, while the Japanese yen firmed more as USDJPY traded back near 157.75 and at times near the two-week low of 157.55 as global bond yields steadied.
AUD traded weaker, as weak metals prices weighed, sending AUDUSD back toward 0.7015 early Thursday after a 0.7037 high and AUDJPY reversed sharply from a 111.31 high early Thursday to trade as low as 110.46 before rebounding.
EURGBP rebounded from its 17-month low Wednesday at 0.8372 despite the ongoing negative focus on French sovereign bonds, trading near 0.8392 early Thursday.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

SpaceX hopes burn bright as huge internal divergences within US market continue.

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:40:00 Z

Big round number in France's 10-year yield.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Cancellation, not calm - Options Brief - 21 October 2026

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

The index closed up a quarter of a per cent and the price of index volatility fell 6%. Underneath it biotech rose 3.64% and the biggest technology names fell. The quiet was arithmetic.

The index stood still because its parts pulled against each other.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.31 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (160.40) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.350

Today in brief

The short version. Index volatility fell across the curve and hardest at the front, three-month implied correlation dropped 5.86% to 12.86, and the typical single name’s implied volatility did not move at all. The index was quiet by cancellation rather than by calm.

Markets. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.13%, while the equal-weighted S&P gained 1.15%, the small-cap fund 1.66% and biotech 3.64%. Meta fell 1.59% and Alphabet 1.13%. Equifax rose 11.3% and Eli Lilly 3.5% on results, General Motors fell 6.8%, and after the close SpaceX added around 9% and Tesla about 2% on merger talk. Europe was mixed and mostly lower, with the German to French ten-year spread at its widest of this cycle. This morning the Kospi is up 2.79% and Brent is at 110.44.

Volatility curve. VIX1D fell to 11.20 and the nine-day measure to 16.27, against the thirty-day at 17.31. The one-year gave up only 0.25 to 22.05 and sits near the top of its sixty-session range. The October VIX future settles at this morning’s open, so November at 18.650 becomes the reference contract.

Single names. Median implied-volatility rank on an identical 187 US names rose to 46.1 from 45.2, with median implied volatility unchanged at 33.6%. Rank rose most in health care, up 3.9 points, and energy, up 2.9, which is where the rotation went.

Looking back: TLT. The 20 November 76 put sold on 29 September has earned 80% of its premium with 21 of 52 days gone. What is left pays about 3.0% a year against 4.11% on a one-month Treasury bill. In our view the last part of a premium can be the worst paid.

Flow. Nine of the ten reports read as rolls, paired legs and mid-market prints with no readable direction. Nothing in the set pairs an index position against single names, so the flow does not corroborate the correlation story.

This week’s range. Two sessions in, the S&P 500 has used 45% of the 1.56% priced for the week, against 40% of the week. The volatility index has gone through the bottom of its band, and that row’s expiry settles this morning.

Earnings and catalysts. Meta and Tesla report after the 22:00 CET close, both priced under their own history at 0.9x and 0.8x the eight-report average. UK inflation at 08:00 CET, the weekly petroleum report at 16:30 CET and a twenty-year note auction at 19:00 CET fill the session.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.534% and Friday’s 0.957%, against 1.21% quoted for that same Friday a session ago, while SKEW held at 160.40. In our view the option market took premium out of correlation rather than out of the parts, and two of the index’s largest names report tonight.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

The S&P 500 closed up 0.28% at 7,712.57 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.13%, which reads as a quiet session until you look inside it. The equal-weighted S&P rose 1.15%, the Russell 2000 fund 1.66%, biotech 3.64%, healthcare 2.37% and regional banks 1.96%. The large technology names went the other way, Meta losing 1.59%, Alphabet 1.13% and Apple 1.00%. The two moves were close to the same size and pointed in opposite directions, so the index recorded almost nothing. Equifax rose 11.3% and Eli Lilly 3.5% on results, while General Motors fell 6.8% on its cost outlook. After the close SpaceX added around 9% on a 4.4 billion dollar quarterly profit and Tesla about 2%, after Elon Musk called a merger of the two a good idea.

Market snapshot

US (Tuesday 20 October close): S&P 500 7,712.57, up 0.28%. Nasdaq 100 29,490.28, down 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,501.24, up 1.02%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.15% and the Russell 2000 fund 1.66%. Biotech led at 3.64%, pharmaceuticals 3.07% and healthcare 2.37%, while technology fell 0.28% and semiconductors 0.38%.
Europe: the Stoxx 600 eased 0.14% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.38%, with the DAX little changed at 25,304.42 and the CAC 40 down 0.38%. Switzerland’s SMI rose 0.76% on a cancer-drug partnership. The German to French ten-year spread closed at its widest of this cycle, 153 basis points.
Asia (Wednesday morning): the Kospi rose 2.79% to 5,707.57, recovering Tuesday’s fall in Korean technology shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng eased 0.35% and the CSI 300 0.65%.
Commodities and rates: Brent traded at 110.44 and WTI at 99.22 at the 06:00 CET pull, both up around 1.5%. Gold held near 4,136 and silver eased 0.87%. The US ten-year yield was 5.123%, the thirty-year 5.434% and the two-year 4.79%. Bitcoin slipped 0.51% to 82,560.
Market regime: transitioning, with the VIX at 17.31, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at 160.40.

All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 21 October 2026. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The whole cash curve came down and the front came down hardest. VIX1D fell 0.73 of a point to 11.20 and the nine-day measure 1.66 to 16.27, against 1.13 off the thirty-day at 17.31. The one-year gave up 0.25 to 22.05 and stays near the top of its sixty-session range. The fall was concentrated where the index was being hedged rather than spread across the term.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.65, unchanged from a session ago. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.10 from 1.06 as the front fell away from the back. VXN/VIX is 1.46 against 1.39, with the Nasdaq gauge at 25.22, giving back less than the broad measure.

VIX futures. The October contract reads 18.350 and November 18.650, a front-month ratio of 0.985. October settles against this morning’s opening quotation, so its premium to spot is not comparable with a session ago and no change is drawn from it. November becomes the reference contract today, over a window carrying the 28 October Federal Reserve decision and the 3 November midterms.

Rates and correlation. The bond gauge rose 0.39% to 101.71 and oil volatility 3.76% to 52.11, now 3.01 times the equity gauge against 2.72 a session ago. Gold volatility eased 1.80% to 21.83. Three-month implied correlation fell 5.86% to 12.86 while dispersion rose 2.27% to 37.33, the two moving apart rather than together.

Single-name volatility

Median implied-volatility rank, identical 187 US names: 46.1 from 45.2.

What the options market taught us: TLT

On 29 September we looked at selling a TLT put: the 20 November 76 put, an obligation to buy the bond ETF at 76. Long-dated yields have eased since and TLT has risen, with four weeks still to run.

TLT closes against the 76 strike, and premium earned against time used. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.

Collected: 0.98 on 29 September.
Worth now: 0.195 (indicative mid, 20 October close): 80% earned, 21 of 52 days gone.
Left to earn: 0.195 over 31 days on USD 7,600, about 3.0% a year (0.195 / 76 x 365 / 31), below the 4.11% on a one-month Treasury bill (Federal Reserve, 19 October).

In our view, the last part of a premium can be the worst paid. The chance of assignment has fallen, but the cash tied up and the loss below 75.02 have not. Holding keeps both in place to earn that 0.195; closing frees the cash and forgoes it; rolling later collects new premium for a longer commitment; assignment means owning TLT at an effective 75.02. Hypothetical, for education only.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 20 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow gave no readable direction. Nine of the ten reports are rolls, paired legs and mid-market prints, several carrying a conviction label of two out of five. The one clean strand sits in energy, where protection was bought on the ask and upside was supplied.
Sector and ETF flow does not corroborate the index story. Nothing in the set pairs an index position against single names, which is the shape a correlation trade takes, and the only explicit index-level prints were upside calls bought on the ask.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Two sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Tuesday’s close. Straddles come from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Two sessions in, the S&P 500 has used 45% of the 119.13 points, 1.56%, priced around Friday’s close, against 40% of the week.

Gold has used 56%, all of it downward, the only market past half its range. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 43%, the bitcoin fund 32% and energy 13%.

The volatility index has gone through the bottom of its band, priced between 17.52 and 22.46 around Friday’s 19.99 close and now at 17.31. That row’s 21 October expiry settles at this morning’s open, so the band is finished.

Friday’s expiry stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, so none of the band pays for it.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

Today's catalysts

UK September inflation and public sector borrowing at 08:00 CET, the European releases of note.
The weekly US petroleum inventory report at 16:30 CET, inside the cash session. The industry body reported a 4.9 million barrel draw in US crude stocks the evening before, with Brent near 110 for a third day.
A US twenty-year note auction at 19:00 CET, three hours before the 22:00 CET cash close, with the ten-year yield at 5.12%.
The Federal Reserve is in blackout before the 28 October decision.
Earnings today: Meta and Tesla after the cash close, with IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Thermo Fisher, Abbott, AT&T and SAP around it.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, as of 21 October 2026. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Tonight’s two are both priced below their own history. Meta prices 6.7% against a 7.4% eight-report average, 0.9x, and Tesla 5.9% against 7.8%, 0.8x. Meta’s last four reports moved 11.3%, 10.4%, 8.6% and 8.0%, so the premium is asking for a calmer release than the recent run.
The widest premium on the board is not in technology. Novo Nordisk prices 7.2% against a 5.0% average, 1.4x, and Novartis 3.1% against 2.1%, 1.5x. Both are health care names, which is where single-name implied-volatility rank rose most yesterday.
Rank and event premium answer different questions. Roche carries a rank of 79 and prices about 1.6%, the smallest expected move among the names still to report. A high rank says the name is dear against its own year; the expected move says what this particular report is worth.
Next up: Meta, Tesla and SAP tonight, Nestle and Roche tomorrow.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: today’s expiry prices 41.15 points, 0.534%, against 42.1 and 0.55% yesterday.
Event implied range: Friday’s expiry prices 73.80 points, 0.957%, against 92.9 and 1.21% a session ago, four sessions to run then, three now. Decay alone leaves about 80.5, so roughly 7 points came out beyond the clock.
Correlation read: three-month implied correlation fell 5.86% to 12.86 while the typical US single name’s implied volatility was unchanged at 33.6%, so the index gauge’s 6.13% fall sits in correlation rather than in the parts. Median rank rose most in health care, up 3.9 points, and energy 2.9: single-name volatility rose where the rotation went, while index volatility fell.
Tail risk signal: SKEW eased 0.90% to 160.40 and the tail-risk gauge 14.77% to 17.32. Far downside is cheaper than a session ago, still dear against anything before last week.

In our view the index’s quiet is arithmetic, not a settled market. Mega-cap technology and the rest moved the same distance in opposite directions, the index netted them off, and the option market repriced correlation, not the parts. Two of its largest names report tonight, and what cancelled yesterday need not cancel again.

Related articles/content
The front end drains the tails do not - Options Brief - 20 October 2026 Correlation returns the index follows - Options Brief - 19 October 2026 Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards - 21 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Korea slides as Brent holds near 110 - 20 October 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

SpaceX earnings: rockets built the empire, but AI is driving its future

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:45:00 Z

Key takeaways

SpaceX's revenue jumped 161%, with artificial intelligence becoming its largest business.
Starlink remains the profit powerhouse, while a major acquisition accelerates SpaceX's ambitions in artificial intelligence.
Spending is accelerating, and a possible Tesla merger adds opportunity alongside considerable uncertainty.

When investors think of SpaceX, they picture rockets returning to Earth, satellites filling the sky and Elon Musk dreaming about Mars. But its latest earnings suggest the company's most important launch may be happening much closer to home.

On 20 October 2026, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of 14.6 billion USD, up 161% from a year earlier. Net profit reached 4.4 billion USD, reversing a 1.1 billion USD loss and comfortably beating analyst expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg.

The surprise? More than half of SpaceX's revenue now comes from artificial intelligence, not rockets or satellites. For investors, this changes the question. SpaceX is no longer simply a space company. It is becoming a sprawling infrastructure and technology business, with very different sources of growth, profits and risk.

From rockets to artificial intelligence

SpaceX now has three main businesses: rockets and space services, Starlink satellite internet, and a fast-growing Super Intelligence division.

The last of these stole the show.

Super Intelligence generated 7.6 billion USD in quarterly revenue, up approximately 830% from a year earlier. The business develops AI models and software while renting powerful computing capacity to other companies.

Growth reflects new computing contracts, greater adoption of its Grok software and the acquisition of Cursor, an AI-powered coding platform.

SpaceX completed the Cursor acquisition in August at an implied equity value of 60 billion USD. The logic is interesting: rather than simply providing computing infrastructure, SpaceX increasingly wants to own the applications running on it.

Think of it as owning the electricity supply, the factory and some of the products coming off the production line.

The division also turned profitable at the operating level, earning 431 million USD. This matters because investors have become increasingly concerned about whether enormous AI investments will eventually produce real earnings.

But there is an important distinction. Revenue is growing spectacularly, while investment spending remains even larger.

Starlink pays the bills, while Starship builds the future

Beneath the AI headlines, Starlink may be SpaceX's most attractive business today.

Its satellite internet division generated 5.2 billion USD in revenue, up 69%, and 2.4 billion USD in operating profit.

Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, while demand from businesses and governments continued expanding.

Unlike rocket launches, which depend on individual contracts, internet subscriptions generate recurring revenue. Once the satellites are operating, each additional customer can help spread the network's enormous fixed costs.

Meanwhile, the traditional space business generated 1.8 billion USD in revenue but recorded a small operating loss.

This exposes an interesting relationship. Rockets enable Starlink to grow, Starlink generates profits, and those profits can help fund more ambitious projects.

Starship could eventually strengthen this advantage by carrying more satellites at lower cost per unit, although its economics still need to be proven.

SpaceX and Tesla: better together?

There is also a potentially much bigger development. During the earnings call, Musk was asked whether merging SpaceX with Tesla would make sense. His response was unusually direct: “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.”

Both companies have established independent committees to explore a possible merger, although no agreement has been reached.

The logic goes beyond combining rockets and electric cars. Tesla develops electric vehicles, robotics and energy systems, while SpaceX brings satellite connectivity, AI computing and launch infrastructure. Together, they could share technology, reduce duplicated spending and accelerate development.

At a combined market value of approximately 3.5 trillion USD, however, this would be an extraordinary transaction. Musk also cautioned that a deal is far from guaranteed and ultimately requires shareholder approval.

For investors, the important question is whether combining these businesses would create more value than keeping them separate. Bigger does not automatically mean better.

What investors can learn

Follow cash, not just growth: compare rising AI revenue with investment spending and actual cash generation.
Separate the businesses: evaluate recurring Starlink profits differently from the more uncertain AI and rocket ambitions.
Watch the merger terms: assess whether any Tesla combination creates value without adding excessive financial or governance risks.

The next launch matters more than the last

SpaceX's latest results reveal something more interesting than another successful rocket launch. The company is building an interconnected business where rockets support satellites, satellites generate recurring profits, and artificial intelligence offers another enormous growth opportunity.

That combination could prove powerful, particularly if the businesses reinforce one another and reduce costs over time. But rapid growth is not the same as lasting shareholder returns. With investment spending accelerating and merger discussions emerging, expectations are rising almost as quickly as revenue.

SpaceX has already demonstrated that it can send rockets into orbit and bring them safely home. Its next challenge is less spectacular, but arguably more important for investors: turning extraordinary ambition into sustainable cash flow.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Quarterly earnings

CoreWeave after the bond scare: what a cash-secured put pays for, and what it carries

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:55:00 Z

CoreWeave shares fell about a quarter in a month as its bonds traded at distressed yields. Puts now pay more than usual. What does a cash-secured put seller get paid for, and what does the seller take on?

When a company’s bonds come under pressure, its puts get more expensive. The seller collects more, and takes on more.

CoreWeave (CRWV on Nasdaq), which rents out computing power for AI, has had a hard month. Its shares closed at USD 62.13 on 20 October 2026, about a quarter lower than a month earlier and not far above their lowest level of the past year (Source: Saxo). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Most of the damage came on 14 October, when the shares lost more than 15% in one session. The trigger was CoreWeave’s own debt: yields on its US dollar bonds climbed to levels usually seen in distressed debt, and on the bond due in 2031 investors briefly asked for more than 16% a year. The next day the selling spread to AI-related shares in Japan and South Korea (Sources: Reuters via The Star and ARY News, both 16 October 2026).

The business itself is still growing fast, and still losing money. CoreWeave reported a backlog of contracted revenue of about USD 104 billion at the end of June, and a net loss of USD 626 million for the second quarter (Source: CoreWeave Q2 2026 results, 11 August 2026). For investors already holding CoreWeave, or considering a position, options can add structure to a view they already have.

CoreWeave daily, with the 50 strike and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.

What credit stress does to put prices

When investors doubt that a company can repay its bonds, they also pay more for protection against a fall in its shares, so a put seller collects more for the same strike. A rough gauge: add the at-the-money call and put for the 20 November 2026 expiry and compare the total with the share price. For CoreWeave, that points to a move of about 23% in either direction by expiry, four to five times what options price for QQQ, the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, over the same weeks. (CoreWeave: call USD 7.28 plus put USD 6.92 makes USD 14.20, on a share price of USD 62.13. Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.)

In our view, that gap is mostly what a CoreWeave put seller is paid for: the chance that the shares fall far and fast, as they did on 14 October. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses; options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue.

Why the 20 November 2026 expiry

The example uses the standard monthly options that expire on Friday 20 November 2026. Each contract covers 100 shares, is priced in USD and is American-style. At the strike used here, this expiry has far more open interest than the weeklies around it (Source: Saxo), and a month of time decay (theta, the small amount an option loses each day) works for the seller.

As of 20 October 2026, CoreWeave had not announced when it will report its third-quarter results. Last year it reported the third quarter on 10 November 2025 (Source: CoreWeave investor relations). On that pattern, the report would land before expiry, and a put sold now would span it, with a results-day move of its own on top of the bond story.

For the investor who wants to own CoreWeave lower: a cash-secured put at 50

Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 shares at the strike if CoreWeave is below it at expiry, for a premium collected today, with the cash to pay for them set aside. The view behind it: the company can work through its debt problems, and the investor would be glad to own CoreWeave at USD 50, though not at today’s price.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 CoreWeave 20 November 2026 50 put at about 2.29 (bid 2.26, ask 2.33), with the shares at USD 62.13
Premium received: about USD 229, against USD 5,000 of cash set aside, about 4.6% of it
Delta: about -0.19, our rough estimate, from Saxo prices, of the chance of assignment
Purchase price if assigned: USD 47.71, about 23.2% below the price at the time
Maximum profit: USD 229 (hypothetical); maximum loss: USD 4,771 (hypothetical), if CoreWeave fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST)

All figures are hypothetical and for education only.

Why 50? It is about 20% below the share price, near the bottom of the range the options market prices to expiry, and plenty of contracts are already open there (Source: Saxo). A move of the size the market expects could still reach it.

Risk: the USD 229 is the whole upside, however far CoreWeave recovers. Below USD 47.71 the loss grows dollar for dollar, as it would for a shareholder. The premium does little if the debt problems get worse. In a restructuring, lenders are paid before shareholders, and the shares can fall far below any strike. Two days like 14 October in a row would take them below the break-even, and they can open sharply lower after overnight news. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

At expiry (hypothetical):

Above USD 50: the put expires worthless and the seller keeps the USD 229.
Between USD 47.71 and USD 50: the seller buys 100 shares at 50 and, counting the premium, is roughly flat.
Below USD 47.71: the seller buys the shares at 50 and carries a loss that grows with every dollar lower.

The 50 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph, maximum risk, maximum profit and break-even. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.

Testing the premise

The case against starts with the bonds. In our view, lenders who ask for around 16% a year are pricing a real chance that they will not get all their money back. An investor who reads them that way may decide the premium is too little, and stay out.

The case for points to the backlog, and to a share price that has already lost about a quarter in a month. An investor who likes the business but not the timing could wait for the third-quarter report, or use a put spread: sell the same put and buy a lower one, which caps the loss for a smaller premium.

Before placing the trade, check:

Bid and ask spreads; selling at the bid gives up part of the premium
That the full cash amount is set aside; the platform’s margin requirement may be lower
An exit plan; the put can be bought back before expiry if the view changes

Assignment risk note: CoreWeave options are American-style, so a short put can be assigned before expiry if it moves in the money.

Final thoughts

In our view, this trade only suits an investor who would be comfortable owning CoreWeave at USD 50 even if the news on its debt got worse. The premium is higher than on a calmer stock because the risk is higher: if CoreWeave cannot refinance, the shares can fall well below the strike, and USD 229 does little against that. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

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Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 20 Oct 2026 SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 16 Oct 2026 TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait \| 29 Sep 2026 AMD after a ten percent day taking something off the table without selling the shares \| 22 Sep 2026 Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener \| 18 Sep 2026 What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 -- Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

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Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 20 Oct 2026
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TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait | 29 Sep 2026
AMD after a ten percent day taking something off the table without selling the shares | 22 Sep 2026
Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener | 18 Sep 2026

What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version | 9 April 2026
Trading earnings with defined | 31 Mar 2026
--
Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026
Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles Theme - Crypto and blockchain ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards? - 21 October 2026

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:20:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US private payrolls growth slowed and pending home sales slid to a record low
Equities: US equities ended mixed as earnings supported sentiment, Europe slipped on AI concerns and French risks, Asia rebounded sharply.
Volatility: Index gauges unwound at the short end of the volatility curve while crude vol firmed
Digital Assets: Listed crypto shares advanced while the tokens themselves drifted modestly lower
Commodities: Oil holds near USD 110 as supply risks persist, gold struggles and wheat slumps
Fixed Income: US treasury yields sideways. Germany-France yield spread widens again.
Currencies: USD slightly weaker in tepid trading range. GBP surge versus weak EUR continues.

Macro

ADP Weekly Payrolls showed US private payrolls rising an average of 18,500 per week in the four weeks to 3 October, a pace cited as consistent with a modestly softening labour market. US pending home sales fell 7.3% month on month in September to a record low, far worse than the 0.5% decline expected, with surging mortgage rates cited as weighing on affordability across every region. September CPI stood at 3.7% year on year.
In the UK, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, beating expectations of 4.9% and the lowest since mid-2025, with the employment rate rising to 75.3%.
In Asia, Japan's exports rose 16.7% year on year in September, below the 20.1% consensus and the softest growth in thirteen months, despite strong demand for AI-related chips and semiconductors. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target amid a moderate recovery and a tight labour market, citing higher Middle Eastern energy costs and strong AI-related demand. Pakistan's army chief met senior Iranian officials in Tehran, though a diplomat denied an imminent agreement while confirming negotiations continue.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Sept CPI
0600 – UK Sept PSNB
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1430 – EIAs weekly petroleum inventory report
1700 – US Treasury to auction 20-year notes

Earnings events

Today: Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Philip Morris, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Texas Instruments, IBM, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, AT&T, Iberdrola, Danaher
Thursday: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco
Friday: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The Dow gained 1% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%, as solid earnings offset concerns about financing AI investments. Equifax surged 11.3% after stronger-than-expected results, while Eli Lilly climbed 3.5% amid strength in healthcare. General Motors fell 6.8% as its outlook highlighted rising costs. After the close, SpaceX jumped around 9% after reporting $4.4 billion in quarterly profit, while Tesla gained almost 2% after Elon Musk described a potential merger between the two companies as a "good idea", with independent committees exploring the possibility. Super Micro Computer also jumped 15.5% after preliminary sales exceeded expectations, improving sentiment ahead of further technology earnings.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, and Germany's DAX slipped 0.1% on Tuesday, as renewed concerns about AI investments and France's public finances weighed on sentiment. ASML declined 2.7% amid pressure on chipmakers, while Schneider Electric fell 3.3% after raising €6 billion in new equity to help fund its $22.6 billion acquisition of US industrial software company PTC. Swiss industrial group ABB also declined despite record orders, highlighting growing investor caution towards companies exposed to data-centre spending. Roche offered some support, gaining 2.6% following a major cancer-drug partnership, helping Switzerland's SMI rise 0.8% even as French equities remained under pressure.
Asia: Asian equities rebounded on Wednesday, with South Korea's Kospi gaining 3% around midday and Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1%, as strong US earnings helped ease concerns about AI spending. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovered after falling 3.0% and 4.2%, respectively, on Tuesday, when financing concerns surrounding AI projects weighed heavily on Korean technology shares. The volatile backdrop was also evident in AI cloud company Elice, which rebounded sharply after plunging on its stock-market debut, while stronger Japanese exports provided additional support. Despite the recovery, investors remained focused on whether upcoming earnings could justify the technology sector's heavy spending and elevated valuations.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX fell 6.1% to 17.31 as front-end hedges unwound alongside easing concerns over AI-related credit. VIX9D dropped 9.3% to 16.27 and VIX1D 6.1% to 11.20, while VVIX fell 9.2% to 97.15, reversing last week's scramble for upside VIX calls. The front VIX future eased 0.75% to 18.350 on its settlement day. The cash curve held contango, SKEW stayed elevated at 160.40 and MOVE edged up to 101.71, leaving rates vol steady against the equity unwind.
Crude vol rose, OVX up 3.8% to 52.11. SPX options imply a 41.15 point move, 0.534%, for today's expiry and 73.80 points, 0.957%, into Friday, with Tesla and Meta reporting.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~82,659 -0.32% | ETHEREUM ~2,443 -0.14% | IBIT 46.71 +0.89% | ETHA 55.07 +1.77% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Listed crypto equities moved ahead of the tokens. Strategy rose 4.9%, Circle 5.5% and Coinbase 1.4%, while miners were mixed, Marathon up 1.4% against Iren 4.0% lower and Riot 1.4% lower. Deribit's DVOL edged up 0.8% to 37.16. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed $665.2 million Monday, its largest session since October 2025, lifting the US spot bitcoin complex to $526.6 million net while Fidelity and Grayscale redeemed, leaving one allocator to set the category sign. Spot ether ETFs lost $103.3 million, a 14th negative session in 15.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management included bitcoin in its annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time, projecting a 10% compounded annual return over ten years at 55% volatility, against 5.5% for gold. Its authors said unstable correlations remain an obstacle to wider portfolio inclusion.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades near USD 110 for a third consecutive day after swinging within a six-dollar range on Tuesday following inaccurate reports of an imminent US-Iran agreement. Instead, continued attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz threaten supply while driving up freight and insurance costs. Together, these factors are keeping refined-product prices elevated, with distillates near USD 200 per barrel and Morgan Stanley warning that fuel tightness could persist through mid-2027. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimates that around 9 mb/d of crude has left the Gulf so far this month, well below levels implied by the US government. Ahead of today's EIA petroleum inventory report, the API reported a 4.9-million-barrel decline in US crude stockpiles.
Metals: Gold drifted back towards USD 4,100 on Tuesday before recovering to trade around USD 4,126 this morning. Elevated energy prices continue to cloud the interest-rate outlook, with traders pricing in three 25-basis-point rate hikes by next July. Overall, bullion remains confined to a relatively narrow range, caught between macroeconomic headwinds and continued demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks. Key resistance remains around USD 4,230, while support continues to emerge below USD 4,100.
Agriculture: Wheat futures slumped to their lowest level since mid-August, trading near USD 6.40 per bushel, down 20% from the three-year high reached last month. Prices have come under pressure amid hopes that an agreement to ease tensions in the Black Sea region could unlock substantial quantities of wheat from Russia and Ukraine currently awaiting export. The prospect of additional supplies comes at a time when Southern Hemisphere harvests are adding further pressure to an already weakening market.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields were little changed Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield treading water near 4.88% and the 10-year treasury yield near 5.12% after a choppy session with wide swings in risk sentiment and oil prices. The US Treasury is set to auction 20-year notes later today. The US Treasury has controversially proposed ending the issuance of 20-year notes.
The Germany-France sovereign yield spreads widened again Tuesday, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle, up five basis points to 153 basis points total.
US high yield spreads widened on Tuesday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield corporate bonds and US treasuries three basis points wider at 332 basis points. This is the highest level posted since the end of March, which saw a local cycle high of 335 basis points. SpaceX CDS prices, a measure of the cost to insure against a default on SpaceX corporate bonds, rose more than seven basis points to end the day near 234 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar traded largely sideways on Tuesday, firming slightly against a weak Euro and ending the day slightly lower versus other currencies. USDJPY remains tightly rangebound just above the 158.00 level early Wednesday, while AUDUSD edged back above 0.7000 Tuesday, peaking at 0.7030 early Wednesday before dropping back.
EURGBP continues to trade heavily ahead of the UK autumn budget statement next Wednesday the 28th, hitting a new 17-month of .8385 Tuesday before finding support. French debt woes are likely a key driver of relative euro weakness there.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Markets are on tilt. Why is SpaceX suddenly reporting today?

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:48:00 Z

Plenty to worry about here from all angles.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

Bloomberg covers what needs to happen to get French yields under control, which mostly boils down to cutting the transfer payments to old people. At least they might be less likely to riot and set things on fire? Here's an excellent take on the why of the French riots, with a hat-tip to Izabella Kaminska for the link.
Business Insider reports on Amazon's racks of AI servers not able to connect to the grid.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

The front end drains, the tails do not - Options Brief - 20 October 2026

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

Index volatility gave back Friday’s spike in a single session, almost all of it at the very front of the curve. The tails did not follow and correlation barely moved. Something only half unwound.

Index volatility gave back Friday’s spike at the front of the curve, and almost nowhere else.

MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 18.44 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (161.86) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.670

Today in brief

The short version. The one-day volatility gauge more than halved, while the one-year measure, skew and implied correlation stayed near the top of their ranges. Hedging demand did not unwind.

Markets. Semiconductors ended an eight-session losing streak, their longest since 2008. The S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 7,690.73 and the Nasdaq 100 1.17%. In our view few stocks took part: the equal-weighted S&P fell 0.34%. Europe went the other way. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.80% with banks leading, and French political unrest pushed the German-French ten-year spread to 148 basis points, a fourteen-year high. This morning the Kospi is down 3.73%, Brent is near 110 and the US ten-year yield is at 5.13%.

Volatility curve. VIX1D fell 48.73% to 11.93, back under the VIX at 18.44, which ends Friday’s inversion. The one-year eased only to 22.30 and is still at the top of its sixty-session range. The October VIX future settles tomorrow.

Single names. The median US implied-volatility rank fell to 45.2 from 49.2, but median implied volatility barely moved. The index gauge dropped 7.75% while the typical name eased under half a percent, so the move was in correlation. In Europe the median rank rose to 48.3 from 43.5.

Flow. Most of it was structure (rolls, paired legs, collars) and gives no read on direction. The one consistent strand was hedging: puts were bought in defensive sector funds and in semiconductor funds.

This week’s range. One session in, the S&P 500 has used 26% of the 1.56% move priced for the week, roughly in line with the time gone. The VIX used 63% of its range, by falling. The band ends on 23 October, before the 28 October Fed decision.

Earnings and catalysts. Netflix reports tonight with the widest premium against its own history: 9.5% priced against a 7.1% eight-report average. Tesla is the opposite at 5.5% against 7.8%. It reports tomorrow with Meta, SAP, IBM and Texas Instruments. US housing starts at 14:30 CET are the main US release.

Looking back: Goldman Sachs. Ahead of the 13 October bank results, options priced Goldman between about 846 and 929 by expiry. The shares touched 931 on results morning and closed at 881.26. The priced range is about where the shares close, not the path they take, so it helps to decide before the report what triggers an exit: a touch of the strike, or a close beyond it.

What it adds up to. Today’s expiry prices 0.55%, the week’s 1.21%. In our view the front end has stopped paying for a session that never came. The VIX at 18.44 against realised volatility of 8.81% leaves a nine-point gap that the back of the curve has not closed.

That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.

Headline driver

Semiconductors ended an eight-session losing streak, the longest since 2008, after the sector had shed around 2.3 trillion dollars in market value. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 1.6% and Amazon 4.98% after a brokerage named it a top pick.

Europe went the other way. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.80%, the DAX 1.18% and the CAC 40 1.11%, banks leading the losses, and French political unrest pushed the German-French ten-year spread to 148 basis points, its highest daily close in fourteen years.

In our view the rebound was narrow rather than broad. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.34% on a day the index rose 0.41%, so the recovery was carried by the same few names that had led the fall.

Market snapshot

Levels are as of the 06:00 CET snapshot on 20 October 2026. US and European figures are the Monday 19 October close, Asian figures Tuesday’s session.

US (Monday 19 October close): S&P 500 7,690.73, up 0.41%. Nasdaq 100 29,529.34, up 1.17%. Dow 51,971.19, down 0.07%. The equal-weighted S&P fell 0.34% while the Russell 2000 fund rose 0.31%. Amazon gained 4.98%, Tesla 3.76% and Nvidia 1.38%; Meta fell 0.55%. Semiconductors rose 1.61% and technology 1.36%, utilities lost 2.01%.
Europe (Monday 19 October close): Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.80% to 639.57, the DAX 1.18% to 25,319.77 and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.96%. Euro-zone banks fell 2.07%, the weakest line on the board.
Asia (Tuesday session): the Kospi is down 3.73%, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix still weighing. Hong Kong has reopened after Monday’s Chung Yeung holiday and trades about 1% lower.
Commodities and rates: Brent trades near 110 after Monday’s rebound towards a five-month high on tightening control of the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold is little changed near 4,135, down 0.6% on Monday. The ten-year Treasury yield rose nearly seven basis points to 5.14% and reads 5.127% now, the two-year 4.763%.
Market regime: Neutral and choppy. VIX 18.44, 20-day realised volatility 8.81% and stable, the index 0.19% below its 50-day average.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The curve unwound its inversion in one session and did it from one end. VIX1D fell 11.34 points to 11.93 and the nine-day measure 2.19 to 17.93, both back under the thirty-day 18.44, while the one-year gave up 0.31 to 22.30. The one-year sits at the top of its sixty-session range and the one-day in the lower part of its own.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX reads 0.65 against 1.16 a session ago, the inversion closing in one number. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.06 from 1.03 as the front fell away from the back. VXN/VIX is 1.39 against 1.36, the Nasdaq gauge at 25.56.

VIX futures. The October contract reads 18.670 against spot at 18.44 and November 18.750, a front-month ratio of 0.995. The 21 October option expiry gives a parity forward of 18.225, consistent to 0.11 across the five nearest strikes on indicative pre-open quotes, a discount to spot of 0.215 against 0.12 a session ago. That contract settles tomorrow against a thirty-day window containing the 3 November midterm elections.

Rates and correlation. The bond gauge was the only measure on the board to rise, up 0.20% to 101.31. Oil volatility eased 1.02% to 50.22, still 2.72 times the equity gauge, and gold volatility 1.55% to 22.23. Three-month implied correlation fell 2.29% to 13.66, dispersion 0.30% to 36.50.

Single-name volatility

Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility ranks, read at Monday’s close across 187 US names, show the distribution sliding back down after Friday pushed it up.

The rank gave back most of Friday’s move. On an identical set of names, the median rank fell to 45.2 from 49.2 while the median implied volatility moved only from 33.70% to 33.55%. The rise came without a rise in what the names cost, and so did the fall.
Both ends reversed. Names above rank 70 fell from 19.8% of the set to 15.0%, and names below 20 rose from 10.2% to 11.2%. That is Friday’s slide up running backwards.
The index moved more than its parts, again. Index implied volatility fell 7.75%. The typical single name eased by 0.15 of a volatility point, under half a percent, so almost all of the index move sits in the correlation term.
Europe went the other way. Across 337 names on an identical set the median rank rose to 48.3 from 43.5 and the median implied volatility to 33.62% from 32.13%, with names above rank 70 up from 15.1% to 20.8%. That fits a session when European equities fell and banks led the losses.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 19 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Nine of the ten reports read as structure rather than conviction: rolls, paired legs, collars and mid-market prints, several carrying a conviction label of two out of five. Treat the session as unreadable on direction.

One strand is worth naming. Protection was bought rather than sold in the defensive sector funds, every ask-side print in the risk-off file was a put, and the staples fund was the most one-sided name in the set. Semiconductor fund flow was puts only and reads as hedging. Against that, upside in the long-dated Treasury fund was sold across several expiries. Hedging demand did not unwind with the front end.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. One session has traded, so the marker sits on Monday’s close. Straddles are read from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

One session in, the S&P 500 has used 26% of the 119.13 points, 1.56%, priced around Friday’s close, against one of five sessions gone. It is spending its range at about the rate the option market allowed for.

The outlier is the volatility index, which used 63% of its priced week in one session, and did so by falling. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used 47%, gold 30%, energy 21% and the bitcoin fund 9%.

The 23 October expiry stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, so none of the band pays for it. The VIX row uses the 21 October expiry, covering today and tomorrow.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

Today's catalysts

UK labour market data at 08:00 CET and the German ZEW survey at 11:00, the European releases of note.
US housing starts and building permits at 14:30 CET, with weekly ADP employment at 14:15. They follow builder sentiment falling to 29 in October from 32, its lowest since June 2012, with price cuts now running at 43% of builders.
The Federal Reserve is in blackout before the 28 October decision.
Earnings today: Netflix after the US cash close at 22:00 CET, with GE Aerospace, General Motors, RTX, 3M, Intuitive Surgical, Capital One and United Airlines during the session.
Tomorrow: Meta, Tesla, SAP, IBM and Texas Instruments.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, as of 20 October 2026. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Netflix carries the widest premium against its own history and reports tonight. It prices 9.5% against a 7.1% eight-report average, 1.3x, up 0.6 points on the session. Alphabet is next at 4.9% against 4.1%.
Rank and event premium answer different questions. Netflix carries an implied-volatility rank of 94 and the board’s highest expected move. Tesla carries 35 and prices 5.5% against a 7.8% average, 0.7x, reporting tomorrow.

What the options market taught us: Goldman Sachs

Before the US banks reported on 13 October, we looked at what options were pricing for Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs had the more useful lesson, and it came on results morning.

Goldman Sachs daily range and close from 7 to 16 October 2026, against the range options priced for the 16 October expiry, and the results-day open, high, low and close against the previous close. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For education only. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.

The priced range: options priced Goldman Sachs between roughly 846 and 929 by the 16 October expiry.
Results morning: the shares opened 3.5% higher and reached 931, just above that range.
Expiry: the shares closed at 881.26, well inside it.

The priced range measures where the shares close at expiry, not where they trade along the way. An option sold at the 930 strike was briefly in the money that morning and out of the money again by the close. So it helps to decide before the report what triggers an exit: a touch of the strike, or a close beyond it.

Next up: Meta, SAP and Tesla on 21 October, Nestle and Roche on 22.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: today’s expiry prices 42.1 index points, 0.55%, against 61.5 points and 0.80% on Monday.
Event implied range: the 23 October expiry prices 92.9 points, 1.21%, against 118.3 a session ago with five sessions to run and four now. Decay alone leaves about 106, so roughly 13 points came out beyond the clock, the mirror of Monday’s 27 going in.
Correlation read: implied correlation fell 2.29% to 13.66 while the index gauge fell 7.75%, so the index gave back more than the input that drove it up. Correlation sits near the top of its stored range.
Tail risk signal: SKEW fell 3.99% to 161.86 and the tail-risk gauge 16.94% to 20.32. Far downside is cheaper than Friday, dearer than any stored session before last week.

In our view the question is what the front end had been paying for. VIX1D at 23.27 on Friday priced a session that did not arrive, and at 11.93 it is back to early-October levels, into an evening carrying the board’s widest single-name event premium. Index volatility at 18.44 against 20-day realised volatility of 8.81% leaves a nine-point gap the back of the curve has not closed.

Related articles/content
Correlation returns the index follows - Options Brief - 19 October 2026 Correlation falls the index stays quiet - Options Brief - 16 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Korea slides as Brent holds near 110 - 20 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above 107 - 19 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Meta and Tesla earnings preview: two very different businesses, one AI dream

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Meta's advertising business funds its AI ambitions, but rising costs are testing its profitability.
Tesla's robotaxis and robotics offer new growth opportunities, while its car business faces pressure and spending accelerates.
Both earnings reports will test whether ambitious AI investments can eventually translate into sustainable profits.

Meta recently launched an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant that can organise your life. Tesla unveiled a Roadster that can leap into the air. Very different products, but surprisingly similar investment stories.

On 21 October, both companies report third-quarter earnings as investors increasingly question the enormous sums being spent on AI.

Meta wants AI to transform how billions interact with technology. Tesla wants it to transform transportation and robotics. Both have ambitious plans, but the question is shifting from what AI can do to what it can earn.

Meta: advertising pays the bills, AI promises the future

Meta, the company behind Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has an important advantage: a highly profitable advertising business and billions of potential customers.

Its ambitions now extend well beyond advertising.

In September, Meta launched Muse, an AI assistant capable of handling everyday tasks, including managing schedules and booking travel. More recently, it introduced Muse Wonder, a more advanced AI model, alongside new smart glasses and an enterprise platform for businesses.

These launches could create new revenue streams through subscriptions, business services and connected devices. Meta can also introduce them to its enormous existing user base.

Meanwhile, AI is already improving advertising performance, helping Meta's traditional business grow.

But there is a catch: the costs are growing even faster.

Second-quarter revenue increased 28% to 60.8 billion USD, while expenses rose 55%. Operating margins fell from 43% to 31%, and free cash flow, the money remaining after operating and investment costs, dropped to 784 million USD.

With capital expenditure expected to reach 130 billion USD to 145 billion USD in 2026, investors will closely examine advertising growth, spending guidance for 2027 and early signs of Muse adoption.

Meta's opportunity is to build new businesses on top of an already profitable one. The challenge is ensuring the new ambitions do not consume too much of the old business's profits.

Tesla: cars today, robots tomorrow

Tesla faces almost the opposite challenge.

The electric-vehicle maker increasingly wants to become an AI and robotics company, with robotaxis, humanoid robots and energy storage playing bigger roles.

Its recent Roadster unveiling demonstrated impressive engineering, but the more important developments concern Cybercab, Tesla's purpose-built autonomous taxi, and Optimus, its humanoid robot.

Both could eventually open substantial markets. However, moving from demonstrations to large-scale commercial operations remains a major challenge.

Meanwhile, Tesla's existing car business faces growing competition and pressure on profitability.

Third-quarter deliveries reached approximately 487,000 vehicles, exceeding expectations despite falling around 2% from a year earlier. The critical question is whether Tesla can protect margins, particularly without relying on regulatory credits earned by selling emissions allowances.

Energy storage offers another opportunity. Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of batteries during the quarter, supporting an already established business that benefits from growing electricity demand.

Still, the investment bill is substantial. According to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Tesla’s capital expenditure is expected to exceed 25 billion USD in 2026, putting pressure on cash generation.

Unlike Meta, which is mainly using AI to strengthen an existing business, Tesla is investing partly to become a different company altogether.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. Illustrative business model comparison, future revenue opportunities are not guaranteed.

Risks: when ambition meets reality

For Meta, the main risks are rising infrastructure costs, fierce AI competition and privacy concerns surrounding personal assistants.

Tesla faces execution delays, regulatory hurdles for autonomous driving and competition in electric vehicles. Both also face valuation risk if investors have already priced in years of future success.

The warning sign is similar: spending continues rising without corresponding improvements in profitability or commercial progress.

Investor playbook

Follow the money: compare revenue growth with expenses, profit margins and free cash flow.
Separate products from profits: new launches matter more when customers start paying for them.
Watch the next spending cycle: higher 2027 investment guidance could change expectations for future returns.
Consider valuations: even strong results can disappoint when share prices already reflect ambitious expectations.

Big dreams still need profitable businesses

Meta and Tesla are chasing the same AI future from very different starting points. Meta relies on advertising profits to fund new products, while Tesla aims to move beyond cars into robotics and autonomous driving.

Wednesday's earnings will offer clues about whether those ambitions are translating into stronger businesses. After all, Tesla's Roadster may leap into the air, and Meta's Muse may organise our lives. But for investors, what matters is where the profits land.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

Roche sales update: buying lower or selling higher, and being paid to wait

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:55:00 Z

Roche reports its nine-month sales on 22 October 2026, after a rise of about 9% since July. One investor wants to buy lower, another already owns the shares. How can each name a price and be paid to wait?

Before a company reports, options on its shares tend to cost more than in a quiet week. Whoever sells the option collects that extra.

Roche publishes its nine-month sales on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 07:00 CET, before the Swiss market opens. The shares closed at CHF 380.10, about 9% higher than after the July results (Source: Saxo price data, as of 19 October 2026). In our view, the strong Swiss franc may be the main complication for Roche: sales grew 6% in the first half, but fell 2% once converted into francs (Source: Roche half-year release, 23 July 2026).

Roche reports are rarely dramatic. Over the last eight, the shares typically moved about 2.2% on the day, and seven of the eight days were up. The one fall, 3.2%, came after the nine-month sales in October 2025 (Source: Saxo price data; Roche releases). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roche, with the 355 and 400 strike prices and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 19 October 2026.

A sales update, not full results

Roche publishes sales only on 22 October, without profit figures. Yet the last four sales updates moved the shares about as much as the last four full results, around 2.6% to 2.7% on average (Source: Saxo price data; Roche releases). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roche share price move from the previous close to the close on release day, last eight releases, against the range priced by the 20 November 2026 options (indicative Saxo quotes as of 19 October 2026). Those options run four more weeks after the report, so the band is not a one-day estimate. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo price data, Roche releases, Saxo option quotes, author calculation.

What the options market expects

Option prices give a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. Add the price of the call and the put with a strike closest to today’s share price. For 20 November, that points to a move of about 5.7% either way, or roughly CHF 353 to CHF 397 around the CHF 375 strike (call CHF 12.80 plus put CHF 8.75 makes about CHF 21.55, on a share price of CHF 380.10. Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 19 October 2026).

These options run four weeks past the report, so the 5.7% covers the report and a month of normal ups and downs, which is why it is bigger than the 2.2% typical reaction.

What happens to the option price after the report

Part of an option’s price pays for uncertainty, including the report. Once the numbers are out, that payment usually shrinks, even if the shares hardly move. Traders call this IV crush. With Roche, the report is only one day in a four-week option, so in our view the drop after 22 October may be small. A seller may not see a quick gain. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Why the 20 November expiry

The examples use the monthly Roche options on Eurex, the European options exchange, expiring Friday 20 November 2026. Each contract covers 100 shares, priced in Swiss francs. December options add a month of risk, including a US decision on Roche’s breast cancer drug candidate giredestrant, due by 30 November (Source: Roche, 2 June 2026). One cost: the gap between the buying and selling price is about a quarter to nearly a third of the option’s price, and only 26 contracts were open at the 355 put, a sign it may be hard to trade (Source: Saxo, as of 19 October 2026).

For the investor who wants to buy Roche lower: a cash-secured put at 355

The idea: Roche is worth owning, but after the rise since July, this investor would rather buy a little lower. The seller of the put agrees to buy 100 shares at CHF 355 if Roche is below that price on 20 November. In return, the seller receives a payment today, called the premium. "Cash-secured" means the money to buy the shares is set aside.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 Roche 20 November 2026 355 put at about CHF 2.94 per share (bid 2.52, ask 3.36), with Roche at CHF 380.10
Net credit: about CHF 294, all from the one put (CHF 2.94 on 100 shares), against CHF 35,500 of cash set aside
Break-even at expiry: CHF 352.06, the strike less the premium, about 7.4% below the price at the time
Maximum profit: CHF 294 (hypothetical), if Roche is at or above 355 at expiry
Maximum risk: CHF 35,206 (hypothetical), if Roche fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 19 October 2026)

Why 355: it sits just inside the lower edge of the range the market expects for the month. None of the last eight reactions would have taken Roche that low in one day, but the month after the report counts too.

Risk: CHF 294 is the most the seller can earn. If Roche ends below CHF 352.06, the seller loses money, as a shareholder would. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

The 355 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph, max risk, max profit and break-even. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 19 October 2026.

For the investor who already holds Roche: a covered call at 400

The idea: this investor owns Roche and would be happy to sell at CHF 400, about 5% higher. The seller of the call agrees to sell 100 shares at CHF 400 if Roche is above that price on 20 November, and receives a premium today. "Covered" means the seller already owns the shares.

Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Own 100 Roche shares; Sell 1 Roche 20 November 2026 400 call at about CHF 3.14 per share (bid 2.76, ask 3.52), with Roche at CHF 380.10
Net credit: about CHF 314, all from the one call (CHF 3.14 on 100 shares), around 0.8% of the CHF 38,010 share value
Break-even at expiry: CHF 376.96, the share price less the premium
Maximum profit: about CHF 2,304 (hypothetical) on shares and call together, if Roche is at or above 400 at expiry
Maximum risk: CHF 37,696 (hypothetical), the share value less the premium, if Roche fell to zero
(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 19 October 2026)

Why 400: it sits just above the range the market expects for the month. Even the largest recent reaction, a 5.1% rise in July 2026, fell short of it. That is also why the premium is small.

Risk: the investor retains the full downside risk of holding the shares. The premium received provides a partial offset, but it does not protect against a significant decline in the stock price. A repeat of the 3.2% fall in October 2025 would cost about CHF 1,200 on 100 shares at today’s price, against CHF 314 received. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.

The 400 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, which is why it reports unlimited risk: that applies only to a call sold without the shares. Held against 100 Roche shares, a rise above 400 is covered by the shares, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 19 October 2026.

And if neither view fits

Both examples assume the investor wants to own Roche. Another investor may think a good quarter is already in the share price. In our view, the put may not suit that investor: CHF 294 is little comfort when buying a share that keeps falling. A holder with that view may prefer to sell some shares, or buy a put as protection, which costs money instead.

A holder who expects a strong quarter gives part of that rise away with the covered call. And doing nothing is always an option.

Worth checking before a trade:

The gap between the buying and selling price
How many contracts are open at that strike
The report timing: 07:00 CET on 22 October 2026
Commission, charged per contract
An exit plan, decided before the report

Assignment risk note: Roche options can be exercised on any day before expiry, so a seller may have to buy or sell the shares early if the share price passes the strike. Only the seller of an option faces this.

Final thoughts

The two examples are one idea seen from both sides: the put seller names a lower price to buy at, the call seller a higher one to sell at, and both are paid for the coming month’s uncertainty. Either position can be closed early if the view changes.

Neither removes the risk of a bigger move than Roche’s history suggests. In our view, selling an option before this report may suit only an investor comfortable owning Roche after a bad day and a weak month. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

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SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait \| 16 Oct 2026 TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait \| 29 Sep 2026 AMD after a ten percent day taking something off the table without selling the shares \| 22 Sep 2026 Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener \| 18 Sep 2026 What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 -- Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

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SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait | 16 Oct 2026
TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait | 29 Sep 2026
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Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener | 18 Sep 2026

What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version | 9 April 2026
Trading earnings with defined | 31 Mar 2026
--
Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026
Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Highlighted articles Theme - Crypto and blockchain ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - Korea slides as Brent holds near 110 - 20 October 2026

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:22:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US builder sentiment slid to a multi-year low; Fed enters blackout period ahead of 28 October decision
Equities: US equities rebounded on technology gains, Europe declined as banks weighed, Asian markets remained under pressure despite Wall Street's recovery.
Volatility: Volatility gauges unwound sharply with the shortest-dated measures giving back the most
Digital Assets: Listed crypto shares drifted lower while the tokens themselves barely moved at all
Commodities: Energy supply fears lift oil and European gas prices while gold remains rangebound
Fixed Income: Yield rebound with risk sentiment recovery and higher oil prices
Currencies: USD weakens slightly after Monday rise, EUR weak in crosses.

Macro

The NAHB housing market index fell to 29 in October from 32, the lowest reading since June 2012 and below forecasts, with current and expected sales and buyer traffic all weaker. Price cuts spread to 43% of builders, averaging 6%. September housing starts are due today, forecast at 1.30 million against 1.275 million previously.
Middle East supply developments remain a central commodity and macroeconomic input. The US Energy Secretary put Persian Gulf oil flows back at about 80% of pre-war levels, and sanctioned tankers from the roughly 1,600-vessel dark fleet may re-enter legal trade. Iran is reported to be tightening control of the Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on shipping, while Saudi-Houthi and Russia-Ukraine strikes on energy infrastructure have resumed..
The Fed is in blackout before the 28 October decision, with markets pricing a hold while pricing in three 25 basis point rate hikes by next July. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said inflation, once described as under control, now needs some work.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Aug. Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
0600 – UK Aug. Average Weekly Earnings
0600 – UK Sep. Jobless Claims Change and Claimant Count Rate
0900 – Germany Oct. ZEW Survey
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending Oct 3)
1230 – US Sep. Housing Starts and Building Permits

Earnings events

Today: Fifth Third Bancorp, Steel Dynamics
Tuesday: GE Aerospace, Netflix, RTX Corporation, ABB Ltd, Intuitive Surgical, Chubb, Capital One, 3M Company, General Motors, Northrop Grumman, United Airlines
Wednesday: Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Philip Morris, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Texas Instruments, IBM, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, AT&T, Iberdrola, Danaher
Thursday: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco
Friday: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, while the Dow Jones ended flat on Monday as technology and consumer discretionary stocks led a recovery. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 1.6%, ending an eight-session losing streak, its longest since 2008, after the sector had lost around $2.3 trillion in market value. Amazon surged 5% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick, while storage stocks Western Digital and SanDisk gained around 6% as investors returned to technology shares. The rebound offered some relief after last week's sharp selloff, with attention now turning to earnings results for signs of how companies are navigating the current environment.
Europe: European equities declined on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.8%, Germany's DAX losing 1.2% and the UK's FTSE 100 dropping 1.1%, as banks led losses and political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. France's CAC 40 also fell 1.1% following weekend unrest, with French equities now trading at their steepest discount to German peers since early 2009. BNP Paribas, Société Générale, HSBC and Crédit Agricole all lost more than 2%, while HSBC declined 2.2% and Norwegian investment company Aker fell 7.1%. Technology was the only sector to finish higher, highlighting the contrast with Wall Street's recovery as investors assessed political risks and the upcoming earnings season.
Asia: Asian equities traded lower on Tuesday despite Wall Street's technology rebound, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index falling 0.3% in early trading as South Korean stocks remained under pressure. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened lower, although mining and energy shares offered some support, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to weigh on South Korea's Kospi following last week's semiconductor selloff. Australia's ASX 200 dropped 1.1%, with BHP falling as much as 2.3% after reporting weaker copper production in Chile, while National Australia Bank slipped following plans to cut up to 2,500 jobs. Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday, while US technology futures pointed to modest gains.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Index volatility unwound alongside the chip rebound. VIX fell 7.75% to 18.44, the nine-day measure 10.88% to 17.93 and the one-day measure 48.73% to 11.93, leaving the front below spot. VVIX eased 2.71% to 106.93, the Nasdaq gauge 5.79% to 25.56 and SKEW 3.99% to 161.86. The curve holds contango from 19.60 at three months to 22.30 at one year, extending a streak past 130 sessions.
Rates volatility was little changed, MOVE at 101.31. SPX options imply 42.1 points, 0.55%, for today's expiry and 92.9 points, 1.21%, into 23 October. Tomorrow's October VX settlement measures a window containing Election Day on 3 November.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~81,995 +0.09% | ETHEREUM ~2,413 +0.28% | IBIT 46.30 +0.33% | ETHA 54.11 -0.73% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Bitcoin trades at $81,636 to $82,125 depending on venue, holding above the $80,427 low as daily Bollinger Band width sits at its tightest in two and a half years. Ethereum is at $2,396 to $2,431, down about 5% on the week from $2,562. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen $539.8m of outflows this month, but the flows are concentrated: IBIT's $65.4m exit on 12 October was the entire category's outflow that day.
Listed crypto shares drifted lower while the tokens barely moved. Coinbase fell 2.72% and Strategy 0.59%. Miners were mixed, with Marathon down 2.06%, Riot up 1.82% and IREN up 2.74%, after double-digit falls on Friday. Token volatility was little changed, with DVOL at 37.38.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades near USD 110 after rebounding on Monday towards a five-month high, supported by tightening Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. This has raised concerns about renewed disruptions to Middle East oil flows and a further reduction in refined-product supplies, with diesel holding near USD 200 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is authorising the sale of sanctioned oil tankers, allowing them to resume legitimate crude shipments.
Metals: Gold trades little changed around USD 4,135 after falling 0.6% on Monday as rising energy prices pushed bond yields higher. Overall, bullion remains confined to a relatively narrow range with key resistance located around USD 4,230 and support below US, caught between macroeconomic headwinds and continued demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks. Silver trades slightly firmer at USD 57.25, while copper is broadly unchanged at USD 6.56 per pound.
European natural gas extended last week’s advance, with benchmark futures reaching their highest level since December 2022 near EUR 90 per MWh amid concerns over low storage levels and a fragile winter supply balance. The latest gains followed reports of an LNG tanker coming under fire near Yemen, adding to supply concerns. European inventories are just over 74% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 89%, while prices have more than doubled from pre-war levels.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rebounded Monday as risk sentiment staged a recovery and oil prices rose to new highs for the cycle, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rising six basis points to 4.77% before easing back slightly in early trading Tuesday. The 10-year benchmark rose nearly seven basis points to 5.14% before easing back below 5.12% in early trading Tuesday.
The Germany-France sovereign yield spread widened sharply Monday and posted its highest daily close since the sovereign debt crisis more than 14 years ago at 148 basis points for the 10-year yield differential. Unrest across France has spooked holders of French debt once again. The spread between 10-year yield Italian BTP’s and Germany Bunds also widened Monday, but at 111 basis points is below the prior high daily close at the beginning of the month of 119 basis points.
US high yield spreads tightened slightly Monday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield corporate bonds and US treasuries two basis points tighter at 329 basis points. Friday’s close at 331 basis points was the highest level posted since the end of March, which saw a local cycle high of 335 basis points .

Currencies

The dollar weakened slightly early Tuesday after a slightly firming on Monday, with EURUSD rising back above 1.1230 despite the focus on France’s shaky finances. USDJPY rolled back below 158.20 after closing at 158.50 Monday.
The Euro remains weak against other European currencies, especially sterling as EURGBP hit a new 17-month low just below 0.8400 before bouncing early Tuesday, while EURSEK tested the 11.10 area, which was an important resistance level on its way to the 11.367 high posted earlier this month. High oil and gas prices continue to support NOK, with EURNOK posting a new cycle low below 10.55 Monday before finding support, the lowest level since January 2023.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Correlation returns, the index follows - Options Brief - 19 October 2026

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

The index fell one per cent on Friday while the equal-weighted version fell four tenths. Index volatility set a sixty-session high anyway, and the typical stock barely moved. Something other than risk repriced.

Index volatility set a sixty-session high; the typical stock did not.

MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 19.99 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (168.59) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.50

Key findings

Correlation did the work, not breadth. Implied correlation rose 16.11% to 13.98, a sixty-session high, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.40% against the index’s 1.09%.
The index repriced, its components did not. VIX rose 21.45% to 19.99; median one-year implied volatility across an identical set of 187 US names moved from 33.38% to 33.70%.
Seven measures set sixty-session highs, all index-level. The bond, gold and oil gauges did not.
Widest earnings premium against own history: UBS 2.0x, Apple 0.6x.

Headline driver

Chipmakers recorded their longest losing streak since 2008 as investors questioned the scale and the financing of artificial-intelligence infrastructure spending, capping Wall Street’s worst week in months. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.50%, the S&P 500 1.09% and the Dow 0.34%.

Two macro releases cut the other way. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said hotter inflation had not changed his outlook, which was read as reducing the odds of an increase on 28 October. September industrial production rose 0.7% on the month against 0.4% expected, the most in five months, with capacity utilisation at 76.9%.

In our view the session was not a growth scare but a concentration event. Money left the chipmakers for European defensives, energy and utilities, and the index fell anyway because the part that moved carries the most weight. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Market snapshot

Levels are as of the 06:00 CET snapshot on 19 October 2026. US and European figures are the Friday 16 October close; Asian figures are Monday’s session.

US (Friday 16 October close): S&P 500 7,659.44, down 1.09%. Nasdaq 100 29,187.55, down 2.50%. Dow 52,007.21, down 0.34%. The equal-weighted S&P fell 0.40% and the Russell 2000 fund 1.69%. Meta fell 3.72%, Alphabet 2.47% and Nvidia 1.43%; Apple rose 0.43%. The software fund lost 4.80%, semiconductors 3.41%. Energy rose 2.52%, utilities 1.34%.
Europe (Friday 16 October close): Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.72% to 644.75, its strongest week against the S&P 500 since April 2025. The DAX rose 0.95% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.58%, led by banks.
Asia (Monday session): the Nikkei 225 narrowed its loss to about 0.7% and the Kospi recovered to 0.6% higher after Chinese third-quarter growth of 4.5% beat. Hong Kong was closed.
Commodities and rates: Brent trades near 108 after a five-month high around 110 last week on Middle East supply disruption. Spot gold is 0.2% higher near 4,175. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.4 basis points to 5.087% on Friday and reads 5.065% now, the 2-year 4.721%. S&P 500 futures were 0.80% higher at the snapshot, easing to about 0.5% by 08:40 CET.
Market regime: Neutral and choppy. VIX 19.99, 20-day realised volatility 10.19% and stable, the index 0.61% below its 50-day average.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The front end inverted and the back end barely noticed. VIX1D rose 9.37 to 23.27 and the nine-day measure 6.15 to 20.12, both above the 30-day 19.99, while the one-year added 0.84 to 22.61. Four of the six cash tenors set sixty-session highs, as did VVIX at 109.91.

Ratios. VIX1D/VIX sits at 1.16, the inversion in one number. VIX3M/VIX fell to 1.03 from 1.12 as the front caught the back. VXN/VIX eased to 1.36, and the Nasdaq gauge at 27.13 is the one index measure not at a new high.

VIX futures. The October contract reads 18.50 this morning against spot at 19.99, having closed Friday at 19.24 after adding 1.32 while spot added 3.53. Spot rising faster than the future is what inverts the basis. The 21 October option expiry gives a parity forward of 19.87, consistent to 0.05 across the five nearest strikes, read on indicative pre-open quotes; a session ago the same expiry gave 17.47 at a premium to spot of 1.01, against a discount of 0.12 now.

Rates and correlation. The bond gauge eased 1.35% to 101.11 and gold volatility sits near its sixty-session floor, so nothing outside equities repriced. Three-month implied correlation rose 16.11% to 13.98, a sixty-session high, while dispersion fell 1.16% to 36.61.

Single-name volatility

Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility ranks, read at Friday’s close across 187 US names, show a distribution that shifted up without the levels moving much.

The rank moved, the level did not. On an identical set of names, so the comparison needs no caveat, the median rank rose to 49.2 from 43.9 while the median implied volatility moved only from 33.38% to 33.70%. Rank measures distance from the year’s extremes, so a small absolute move lifts many names at once when they have been sitting in a narrow band.
Both ends shifted the same way. Names below rank 20 fell from 15.0% of the set to 10.2%, and names above 70 rose from 14.4% to 19.8%. That is the whole distribution sliding up, not the tails fattening.
The gap against the index is the point. Index implied volatility rose 21.45% on the session. The typical single name rose under 1%. Almost all of the index move is therefore in the correlation term rather than in what the components cost.
Europe went the other way. Across 337 names on an identical set the median rank fell to 43.5 from 46.2 and the median implied volatility eased to 32.13% from 32.58%, which fits a session European markets closed higher and before the US selloff deepened.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 16 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

All ten reports read as structure rather than conviction: expiry rolls, paired legs and mid-market prints, with both calls and puts bought and sold across the large technology names. Treat it as neutral.

One line is worth naming because it is the only readable index-level side: buyer-initiated put protection in the Nasdaq 100 fund, mostly spread-financed. That is hedging demand, not a directional bet.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. The week has not opened, so the marker sits on Friday’s close. Figures are at-the-money straddles read from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The week opens with a wider band than the last one. The S&P 500 carries 119.13 points, 1.56%, against 82.80 points and 1.06% a week ago, so the priced week is 47% wider on the same six markets and the same method. The Nasdaq 100 fund is priced for 2.58%, gold for 2.05%, energy for 3.00% and bitcoin’s fund for 3.81%.

Two features matter. The 23 October expiry stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, so none of this band pays for the meeting, and the VIX row uses the 21 October expiry, the nearest listed, covering only the week’s first three sessions.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

Today's catalysts

Canadian September consumer prices at 14:30 CET, the only scheduled release of note, with the US housing market index at 16:00.
No US data of consequence, which leaves the session to the earnings run-in and to whether the chip selloff stabilises.
Earnings today: Fifth Third Bancorp and Steel Dynamics, before a heavy week.
The week ahead: Netflix, GE Aerospace and General Motors on Tuesday, then Meta, Tesla, SAP, IBM and Texas Instruments on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve decision on 28 October.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, as of 19 October 2026. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

The widest premiums against own history are the European banks and Alphabet. UBS prices about 6.1% against a 3.1% eight-report average, 2.0x, and Alphabet 5.4% against 4.1%. At the other end Apple prices 1.4% against 2.5%, 0.6x.
Rank and event premium answer different questions. Netflix carries an implied-volatility rank of 81 and prices the board’s highest expected move, 8.9%. Apple carries 68 and prices 1.4%. Rank measures the level against the name’s own year; the expected move measures what one day costs.

What the options market taught us: ASML

Ahead of ASML’s results on 14 October, we looked at the move its options were pricing. The results came and went quietly. The days around them did not.

ASML closing prices from 8 to 16 October 2026 against the range priced by options for the 16 October expiry, and each session’s move. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For education only. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.

What the options priced: a move of about 6.5% by the 16 October expiry.
The results day itself: up 1.2%.
The full stretch to expiry: down 9.4%, most of it in the sessions before and after the report, as chip stocks sold off.

The lesson is in what that 6.5% measured. An option does not know which day the news arrives; its price covers every trading day until expiry. Here the report was the calm part and ordinary days did the moving. So when reading a priced earnings move, it helps to count the days it covers and ask what else happens in them.

Next up: Netflix on 20 October, Meta, SAP and Tesla on 21, Nestle and Roche on 22.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: today’s expiry prices 61.5 index points, 0.80%. Friday’s priced 41.65 points, 0.54%.
Event implied range: the 23 October expiry prices 118.3 points, 1.54%. It priced 100.25 points on Friday with six sessions to run and has five now, where decay alone leaves about 91.5, so roughly 27 points went in beyond what the clock explains.
Correlation read: implied correlation rose 16.11% to 13.98 while dispersion fell 1.16% to 36.61, the mirror of Thursday. Six-month realised correlation across S&P names sits at 0.01, the lowest since 2001, so index volatility had an unusually low base to reprice from.
Tail risk signal: SKEW rose 5.07% to 168.59, above all 60 stored sessions, and the tail-risk gauge 48.98%. Far downside protection got dearer alongside the whole front end.

In our view the question is whether the components keep moving together. Index volatility at 19.99 against 20-day realised volatility of 10.19% suggests the option market may be paying for correlation the tape has not yet delivered, and a sixty-session high leaves correlation less room to rise. This week’s expiry stops before the Federal Reserve decision, so the band pays for earnings and the chip trade, not the meeting.

Related articles/content
Correlation falls the index stays quiet - Options Brief - 16 October 2026 Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 -- Market Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above 107 - 19 October 2026 Market Quick Take Meltdown in AI stocks yields to late recovery - 16 October 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above $107 - 19 October 2026

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 06:37:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: The Fed chair damped hike expectations while industrial output ran hotter than forecast
Equities: US equities suffered another AI-led selloff, Europe outperformed as investors rotated into defensive sectors, Asian markets remained under pressure.
Volatility: Index volatility jumped and the shortest-dated gauges repriced hardest of all
Digital Assets: Listed crypto shares and miners fell hard while the tokens themselves barely moved
Commodities: Oil retreats from five-month high as gold steadies and LME Week begins
Fixed Income: Long yields rose on Friday before easing back through the Asian morning
Currencies: The dollar slipped on Fed hold bets with the Australian dollar leading gains

Macro

Fed Chair Warsh offered no guidance on this month's policy decision, saying hotter inflation had not changed his outlook, which was cited as further reducing market-implied odds of an October increase. He said inflation is still too high but broadly in line with expectations. The Fed lifted rates to 3.75% to 4% in September, its first increase since 2023, and most officials still expect one more this year with the next meeting due on 28 October.
US industrial production rose 0.7% month on month in September, the most in five months and above the 0.4% forecast, with manufacturing output up 0.3%, mining 0.2% and utilities 3.5%. For the third quarter, industrial output grew at a 2.8% annualised rate. Capacity utilisation climbed to 76.9%, the highest since December 2023 and above the 76.5% forecast, though still 2.5 points below its long-run average of 79.4%.
Further Middle East supply disruption was reported over the weekend. Saudi and Houthi fighting continued, with a Saudi helicopter down near Yemen and Houthi strikes on Yanbu, while three tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Revolutionary Guard tightened control of the waterway. Ukrainian drones struck oil sites in St Petersburg.
President Trump said he had struck a diesel export deal with Russia and delayed new sanctions to safeguard Ukraine peace talks, though US lawmakers have introduced a bill to block the transaction. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Donald Trump of trying to pressure Kyiv into surrendering to Russia, escalating a week-long row with the US president.
China’s economy beat expectations in Q3, expanding by 4.5%, while retail sales growth picked up more than expected to 1.1% and industrial production growth accelerated to 5.5% year-on-year in September. Meanwhile, home prices fell at a slower pace in September, raising hopes that the five-year property downturn, which has weighed on economic growth, may finally be easing as the latest stimulus measures begin to take effect.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – Canada Sep CPI

Earnings events

Today: Fifth Third Bancorp, Steel Dynamics
Tuesday: GE Aerospace, Netflix, RTX Corporation, ABB Ltd, Intuitive Surgical, Chubb, Capital One, 3M Company, General Motors, Northrop Grumman, United Airlines
Wednesday: Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Philip Morris, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Texas Instruments, IBM, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, AT&T, Iberdrola, Danaher
Thursday: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco
Friday: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, while the Dow Jones lost 0.3%, as technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 2.5%, capping Wall Street's worst week in months. AI and semiconductor stocks led the decline, with chipmakers recording their longest losing streak since 2008 as investors questioned the scale and financing of AI infrastructure spending. CoreWeave lost more than 20% over the week amid concerns about its funding needs, highlighting growing scrutiny of the AI investment boom. Still, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.9% early Monday, suggesting some relief ahead of a busy earnings week.
Europe: European equities bucked Wall Street's weakness on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.7%, the FTSE 100 gaining 0.4%, and Switzerland's SMI advancing 0.3%. Banks and food and beverage stocks led gains as investors shifted away from US technology shares towards more defensive and attractively valued European companies. British American Tobacco and defence group Babcock helped lift the FTSE 100 to its highest close since late August. The Stoxx 600 gained 2.1% over the week, marking its strongest relative performance against the S&P 500 since April 2025. Attention now turns to the upcoming earnings reports.
Asia: Asian equities recovered from steep early losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 narrowing its decline to around 0.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi rebounded to gain 0.6%. SK Hynix dropped 1.3% and Samsung Electronics was flat, following a difficult week marked by fears of stronger Chinese competition in memory chips. Samsung Biologics bucked the trend, gaining more than 8%, while mainland Chinese equities showed greater resilience after third-quarter economic growth reached 4.5%, slightly above expectations. Hong Kong's market was closed for the Chung Yeung Festival, leaving investors focused on corporate earnings and whether the technology selloff would stabilise.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Index volatility repriced sharply alongside the chip rout. VIX rose 21.45% to 19.99, the nine-day measure 44.02% to 20.12 and the one-day measure 67.41% to 23.27, leaving the shortest tenors above spot. VVIX jumped 18.73% to 109.91 and SKEW 5.07% to 168.59. Six-month realised correlation across S&P names sits at 0.01, the lowest since 2001, so index vol had an unusually low base to reprice from.
Beyond the near term the curve held contango, 20.50 at three months to 22.61 at one year, with November VX at 17.92 carrying the midterm hump. Rates volatility eased, MOVE down 1.35% to 101.11. SPX options imply 61.5 points, 0.80%, for today's expiry and 118.3 points, 1.54%, into 23 October.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~82,386 +0.45% | ETHEREUM ~2,420 +0.54% | IBIT 46.15 -0.94% | ETHA 54.51 -1.62% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

The listed complex fell hard while the tokens held steady. Strategy dropped 9.56%, Coinbase 5.79% and Circle 5.46%, and the miners fared worst, Riot down 11.48%, IREN 11.19% and Cipher 10.56%, moves that coincided with the unwind in artificial intelligence names rather than with spot.
Bitcoin holds the low $81,000s and Ether trades at $2,365, down 2.1%, with token volatility little changed, DVOL at 38.80. Liquidations cooled to $359 million, 78% longs, from the $937 million peak on 15 October. Spot Ether ETFs lost $320.1 million over 12-16 October, ETHA accounting for 93.4%, while Bitcoin ETFs shed $228 million as IBIT finished flat. Support runs $81,000-$82,000, resistance $84,100, ETH's 15 October low $2,325.

Commodities

Oil: Brent's December contract trades down 1.7% at USD 108 per barrel, having reached a five-month high of USD 110 last week. Supply disruption fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco's headquarters and damage to three tankers have all been cited as drivers of the rally. This morning's decline, meanwhile, coincides with signs that Middle East supply is holding near pre-war levels. Elsewhere, US lawmakers have introduced a bill to block the Trump-Putin fuel purchase agreement, while Moscow and Kyiv continue to trade tit-for-tat attacks.
Gold: Spot gold trades 0.2% higher at USD 4,175 after ending last week's roller-coaster ride little changed. The market remains caught in a tug of war between short-term selling pressure from macro-focused traders and demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors seeking a safe haven amid multiple geopolitical and fiscal tensions. In our view, key resistance remains at USD 4,235, while support continues to emerge below USD 4,100. ETF holdings reached a fresh four-year high on Friday while continued net selling by hedge funds saw bullish futures bets cut to a four-month low.
Industrial metals: LME Week kicks off in London today, bringing together producers, consumers, traders and investors from across the global metals industry. The event provides an important opportunity to assess supply-demand trends and the outlook for industrial metals, with discussions often helping to shape market sentiment and price expectations for the year ahead, particularly for copper and other growth-sensitive metals.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The Treasury curve steepened on Friday. The ten-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 5.087% and the thirty-year 2 basis points to 5.428%, while the one-year fell 1.8 basis points to 4.44%, widening the five to thirty-year spread to 54.2 basis points. The oil surge and the primary dealer survey for the November refunding, which asked about long-end buyback operations, were cited as exacerbating the long-end weakness; Citi strategists read the survey as signalling a potential reduction in long-bond issuance.
Despite Friday's long-end softness, ten-year yields fell about 17 basis points over the week, a move that coincided with the wobble in the AI trade. In early European trading the ten-year at 5.065%, the thirty-year at 5.406% and the two-year at 4.721%.

Currencies

The dollar weakened on Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%, capping its worst week since early September after Chair Warsh's comments were read as favouring a hold. The softer dollar coincided with the euro breaking a five-week losing streak and with a broad rally in emerging market currencies and equities. Little action has been seen so far today with the dollar index, euro and yen trading near unchanged while the Australian dollar is the clear G10 outperformer this morning, up 0.4% after Friday's risk-on session, while the Canadian dollar also firmed, USDCAD down 0.14%, with higher crude prices cited as support.
COT on forex in the week to 13 October saw the gross dollar long against eight IMM currency futures surge 27% to USD 44.6 billion, an 11-week high and a remarkable USD 37 billion increase over the past four weeks. The euro net short reached a ten-year high, the sterling short climbed to a nine-year high, while the Australian dollar short reached a record high. An increasingly one-sided trade raising the risk of a sharp reversals should the fundamental or technical backdrop shift

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

COT update: Euro short jumps to ten-year high while commodity funds extend selling

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 05:45:00 Z

Key points:

The Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
Forex: Speculators lifted their gross dollar long by 27% to an 11-week high of USD 44.6 billion, a USD 37 billion increase in just four weeks, raising the risk of a crowded trade reversal.
Energy: Brent crude attracted strong buying amid persistent Middle East supply risks and tight refined product markets, helping lift the BCOM index by 1.5%.
Metals: Managed money reduced exposure across all metals, led by gold, as dollar strength and elevated US real yields continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of Wednesday's inflation print.
Agriculture: Grain longs fell for a fourth consecutive week, led by corn following a bearish USDA WASDE report, while sugar's net long reached a five-year high.

Forex

The rapid rebuilding of long dollar positions extended into a fourth consecutive week, supported by continued, albeit relatively modest, dollar strength ahead of last Wednesday’s US CPI release. Dollar strength was particularly pronounced against the euro, amid ongoing political and fiscal turmoil in Europe, and the Mexican peso, which fell to its lowest level of the year after minutes from the latest central bank meeting suggested policymakers were increasingly open to rate cuts, undermining the currency’s carry appeal.

Overall, the gross dollar long against eight IMM currency futures surged 27% to USD 44.6 billion, an 11-week high and a remarkable USD 37 billion increase over the past four weeks. The euro net short reached a ten-year high of 138,000 contracts, equivalent to USD 19.3 billion, while the sterling short climbed to a nine-year high of 107,000 contracts, or USD 9 billion. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar short reached a record of 117,000 contracts, equivalent to USD 8.2 billion, a remarkable turnaround from a 13-year high at 86k contracts recorded back in May.

These increasingly stretched positions highlight the extent to which speculative investors have embraced the dollar's recovery. However, they also point to a potentially vulnerable and increasingly one-sided trade, with the risk of a sharp reversal should the fundamental or technical backdrop shift. The rapid unwinding of dollar longs following the multi-year-positioning peak in late July serves as a timely reminder of how quickly sentiment can turn when too many investors find themselves on the same side of the trade.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Commodities

Broad selling extended into a second consecutive week despite another period of overall index strength, which lifted the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) by 1.5%. However, as the table highlights, gains were primarily driven by energy, while all other sectors suffered setbacks, led by grains and precious metals. The reporting period ended just ahead of last Wednesday’s US CPI release, which subsequently triggered considerable turbulence across financial markets.

Managed money buying was concentrated in Brent crude, which gained 5% during the week, followed by gasoil and natural gas, while the speculative net long in sugar rose to a five-year high.

All metals saw net selling, led by gold ahead of the US CPI release. In gold its worth noting the continued battle between investors in ETFs where holdings reached a fresh four-year high last week as opposed to continued net selling by hedge funds in futures market reducing the net long to a four-month low. However, the bulk of the selling was once again concentrated in grains, where a fourth consecutive week of long liquidation followed last month’s record net long of more than one million contracts. Corn suffered the largest reduction as traders responded to the latest and particularly bearish USDA WASDE report, which triggered the biggest one-day corn price slump since 2023.

Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Managed money short, long and net positions in energy - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money short, long and net positions across key metals - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money positions across key agriculture commodities - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:

They are more likely to have tight stops and no underlying physical exposure that needs to be hedged
This makes them more reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
Their positioning provides insight into major trends, while extreme positions can also help identify when a reversal or correction may be looming

Related articles/content
16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets 15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks 14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness 12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices 12 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 October 2026 Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

16 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets
15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks
14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness
12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices
12 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 October 2026

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Correlation falls, the index stays quiet - Options Brief - 16 October 2026

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z

Implied correlation fell almost six per cent to 12.04 while the equal-weighted index rose four times as fast as the headline one. The index is not calm, its components are cancelling.

Implied correlation fell almost six percent, the largest move on the board.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 16.46 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (160.45) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.47

Key findings

Correlation did the work, not calm. Three-month implied correlation fell 5.94% to 12.04, the largest single move on the board, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.36% against the headline index’s 0.33%.
The index is the quietest thing on the screen. Saxo’s volatility ranks put the four large index funds at a median of 17.8 and the seven largest technology names at 58.0, a gap of 40 rank points.
Volatility did not leave, it moved. The bond market measure rose 3.45% to 102.50, the biggest riser on a board where nine of fourteen measures fell.
Widest earnings premium against own history: Novartis at 1.4x, Apple at 0.3x.

Headline driver

September producer prices rose 1.3% on the month against 0.5% expected, the largest increase since March 2022, energy-led at 10.8%. Core rose 0.7% and the annual rate reached 6.3%. Retail sales beat at 0.8%, though petrol stations carried most of it and the control group added 0.1%.

The market read the composition, not the headline. Treasuries rallied, the 10-year yield bottoming below 5.04% before recovering above 5.08%, still some 12 basis points below its level before the consumer price release. Pricing for a 28 October Federal Reserve increase fell back to 15%.

In our view that is why the session rotated rather than fell. Money left the chipmakers for healthcare, banks and smaller companies, and the index barely moved because the two sides cancelled. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Market snapshot

Levels are as of the 06:00 CET snapshot on 16 October 2026. US and European figures are the Thursday 15 October close; Asian figures are Friday’s session.

US (Thursday 15 October close): S&P 500 7,744.06, up 0.33%. Nasdaq 100 29,935.59, down 0.05% after recovering a steep intraday fall. Dow 52,183.23, up 1.08%. The equal-weighted S&P rose 1.36% and the Russell 2000 fund 1.37%, four times the headline index. Nvidia fell 1.84%, Tesla 1.29% and the semiconductor fund 1.04%; healthcare rose 1.86%, financials 1.38% and retail 3.68%. Microsoft was the exception, up 1.08%.
Europe (Thursday 15 October close): Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.38% to 640.17, led by healthcare. The CAC 40 rose 0.78% and the DAX 0.33%, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.36%, and the FTSE 100 closed around 10,840, up 1.1%.
Asia (Friday session): Kospi up 4.11% to 5,782.62, Nikkei 225 1.80%, Hang Seng 1.21% and the CSI 300 0.75%.
Commodities and rates: Brent holds above 105, WTI 95.67. Gold futures rose 0.82% to 4,204.5, a second day higher, the silver fund 3.39%, the miners fund 4.34%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.069%, the 2-year 4.742% and the 30-year 5.415%, derived from the prior session’s export, not the file’s change column.
Market regime: Transitioning. VIX 16.46, 20-day realised volatility 9.37%, stable, the index 0.48% above its 50-day average.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Volatility surface

The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Every tenor fell and the curve kept its shape. VIX1D eased 0.21 to 13.90, the nine-day measure 0.62 to 13.97, the 30-day 0.41 to 16.46, the three-month 0.30 and the one-year 0.17. The front gave back most of Wednesday’s spike; the back never registered it. Contango runs 13.97 to 21.77 at one year.

Ratios. VIX3M/VIX rose to 1.12 from 1.11. VXN/VIX widened to 1.39 from 1.34, the Nasdaq premium growing on a session the Nasdaq underperformed by a third of a percent. It marks where volatility is concentrated, not the size of the move.

VIX futures. The 21 October option expiry gives a parity forward of 17.47, consistent to 0.15 across the five nearest strikes, a premium to spot of 1.01 points. A session ago the same expiry gave 17.68 at a premium of 0.81: the forward eased while the premium widened, because spot fell further. The feed’s continuous series reads 17.85 and reconciles with neither parity nor its stored prior, so no comparison is drawn from it.

Rates and correlation. The bond market volatility measure rose 3.45% to 102.50 on a day the 10-year yield fell about 3 basis points, the one place on the board where volatility got dearer. The Treasury fund gauge rose 5.17% to 15.67. Three-month implied correlation fell 5.94% to 12.04, dispersion rose 1.20% to 37.04.

Single-name volatility

Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility ranks, read at Thursday’s close across 187 US names, show the distribution widening at both ends.

Both tails grew and the middle fell. The median rank eased to 43.9 from 44.6 on an identical set of names, so the comparison needs no caveat. Underneath it, names below rank 20 rose from 12.8% to 15.0% of the set and names above 70 from 13.9% to 14.4%. A session that fattens both ends while the centre slips is dispersion arriving in the single names.
The index funds are the cheapest thing on the board. The four large index funds carry a median rank of 17.8, down 4.5 on the day, with the S&P fund at 13.4, the Russell fund 16.9 and the Dow fund 18.8. The seven largest technology names sit at 58.0 and rose 1.4. Alphabet is the richest of them and Nvidia the cheapest.
Financial volatility is coming out now the reports have cleared. The group’s median rank fell 5.0 to 27.6, the largest group move of the session, which is the usual pattern once an event has passed.
A big move with no volatility bid. The metals group sits at a median rank of 19.1 with half its members below 20, on a session the gold miners fund rose 4.34%. Europe barely moved: across 329 names the median was 47.5 against 47.7.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 15 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

October monthly expiry mechanics dominated the tape: deep in-the-money packages, cumulative-volume fragments and mid-market prints inside multi-leg codes. All ten reports score their own conviction at two or three out of five. Treat it as neutral.

One line is worth naming against the day’s reading, because it cuts the other way: a large opening purchase of 30 October Nasdaq fund puts, lifted at the offer, in the expiry that spans the Federal Reserve decision. That is index-level hedging demand on a session when index volatility fell.

Where the week's range sits

The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 9 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound and the Thursday 15 October close as the marker. Figures are at-the-money straddles read from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

With the week’s expiry falling today, four of the six rows have come back inside the range priced for it. The S&P 500 has spent 81% of its 82.80-point range, energy 91%, gold 23% and bitcoin’s fund 3%. Two remain outside: the Nasdaq 100 fund at 187% of its 12.42-point range and the VIX at 107%.

Yesterday five of the six sat outside with one session to run. That reversal is the week in one line: the range was breached midweek, then recovered, and what recovered it was not the index moving back but the components moving apart far enough to cancel.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

Today's catalysts

September import and export price indices at 14:30 CET, the third inflation read of the week after consumer and producer prices.
September industrial production at 15:15 CET, with Canadian housing starts at 14:15.
Today is the October monthly expiry, the largest open-interest roll of the month, which tends to loosen pinning into the afternoon.
Earnings: Investor AB and Truist Financial, with Netflix, SAP and Tesla next week ahead of the 28 October Federal Reserve decision now priced at 15% for an increase.

Earnings scorecard

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, with implied-volatility rank and last close, as of 16 October 2026. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.

Six of the eight that have reported moved inside what was priced. Goldman Sachs came in at 0.1x its expected move, JPMorgan 0.3x, ASML 0.3x and TSMC 0.5x. Only Citigroup, at 5.6% against 3.4%, and Bank of America, at 4.8% against 2.9%, exceeded it, both at 1.6x.
The widest premiums against own history are European healthcare and Alphabet. Novartis prices 2.9% against a 2.1% eight-report average, 1.4x, and Alphabet 5.1% against 4.1%, 1.2x. At the other end Apple prices 0.8% against 2.5% and Meta 3.7% against 7.4%.
Rank and event premium answer different questions. Apple carries an implied-volatility rank of 61, the upper half of its year, yet prices only 0.3x its own eight-report average. Netflix carries 77 and prices 1.1x. Rank measures the level against the name’s own past; the expected move measures what one day costs.
Next up: Netflix on 20 October, SAP and Tesla on 21, Nestle and Roche on 22.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.

What the market is pricing

Session implied range: today’s expiry prices 41.65 index points, 0.54%, on a parity forward of 7,746.25. Yesterday’s priced 47.65 points, 0.62%.
Event implied range: the 23 October expiry prices 100.25 points, or 1.29%. Today’s expiry priced 65.05 points a session ago with two to run, where decay alone leaves about 46.0. It printed 41.65, so roughly 4.4 points came out beyond what the clock explains: premium that went in through the consumer price print came out through the producer price print.
Correlation read: three-month implied correlation fell 5.94% to 12.04 while dispersion rose 1.20% to 37.04. Correlation down with dispersion up is a rotation, the mirror of yesterday.
Tail risk signal: SKEW rose 2.00% to 160.45, a new high above all 60 stored sessions, on a day the 30-day measure fell: far downside protection got dearer as index volatility got cheaper.

In our view the open question is whether the components keep disagreeing. Index volatility this low says the pieces are offsetting, not that risk has gone, and correlation at 12.04 leaves little room to offset harder. The 28 October Federal Reserve decision is the likeliest thing to move them together.

This material is produced for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Options involve significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures quoted are derived from option-implied pricing at the stated snapshot times and may change rapidly.

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Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026 Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026 -- Market Quick Take Meltdown in AI stocks yields to late recovery - 16 October 2026 Market Quick Take - Risk sentiment crumbling US treasuries a safe haven - 15 October 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Commodities diverge: The Bloomberg Commodity Index trades virtually unchanged on the week, with energy and soft commodities offsetting losses across metals and grains.
Energy supply risks deepen: Elevated freight and crude acquisition costs are undermining refinery profitability, threatening further fuel supply constraints despite recovering Middle East crude exports.
Precious metals find support: A sharp reversal lower in Treasury yields and the dollar helps gold challenge its downtrend, while silver's recovery from its weekly lows suggests renewed investor interest.
Grains search for a floor: Bearish USDA revisions, harvest pressure and speculative long liquidation have driven a sharp correction, raising questions about whether selling has become overextended.

A flat commodity index conceals growing market divisions

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index heads for a marginal weekly decline of 0.1%, leaving it up 1.6% month-to-date and nearly 35% year-to-date. Beneath the calm headline performance, some divergence has emerged, with strength in energy and soft commodities offsetting losses across metals and grains.

The mixed performance reflects a market caught between persistent supply disruptions, weakening economic confidence and the unwinding of crowded speculative positions. Nowhere is this tension more evident than in energy, where elevated prices signal physical scarcity even as the economic consequences of prolonged disruption become more apparent.

The macroeconomic backdrop has also turned increasingly unsettled. A hotter-than-expected US September inflation report initially sent Treasury yields sharply higher, raising concerns about renewed Federal Reserve tightening. The reaction subsequently reversed dramatically as weakness in technology stocks, particularly those exposed to the AI investment boom, triggered a short covering rally in Treasuries. The two-year yield fell from a post-CPI high of 4.95% to 4.73%, leaving it six basis points lower on the week, while the ten-year benchmark reversed from 5.32% to 5.08%, a weekly decline of 16 basis points.

The dollar also lost momentum, heading for its first, albeit modest, weekly decline in five weeks. These developments helped precious and, to a lesser extent, industrial metals recover ahead of the weekend, reducing earlier losses. Importantly, falling yields failed to generate a sustained recovery in technology shares. While a few days of selling do not necessarily signal a deeper correction, the divergence raises questions about the durability of the equity rally and growing concerns about valuations and earnings.

For commodities, lower yields and a weaker dollar are generally supportive. However, if falling yields increasingly reflect growth concerns rather than expectations of easier monetary policy, the benefits may be uneven, particularly for industrial commodities.

Commodities one week returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Oil: High costs increasingly threaten the economics of refining

Crude oil prices remain elevated, with Brent trading around USD 105 per barrel and WTI outperforming during the week. The Middle East conflict continues to dominate supply conditions, even as crude shipments recover towards pre-war levels. However, recovering exports should not be mistaken for normalisation. Attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with exceptionally high freight and insurance costs, continue to disrupt the economics of moving crude and refined products.

A growing concern is the pressure on refinery profitability. According to the International Energy Agency's October Oil Market Report, elevated crude acquisition and freight costs have severely undermined refining margins in Europe and Asia, despite historically high diesel and other middle-distillate prices.

This creates an apparent contradiction: diesel remains exceptionally expensive, yet producing it is becoming increasingly difficult to do profitably. Refiners cannot simply convert every barrel of crude into diesel. Alongside diesel and jet fuel, they produce gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, whose margins have deteriorated sharply. Gasoline cracks have turned negative in some markets, while other fuels also trade at discounts to crude.

Consequently, strong diesel cracks are increasingly insufficient to offset weaker returns elsewhere, particularly when crude must be transported over longer distances at extraordinary cost. European and Asian refiners dependent on imported crude are especially exposed, while US operators generally benefit from cheaper domestic feedstocks.

Continued margin deterioration could force some refiners to reduce throughput, deepening the shortage of middle distillates and adding further upward pressure on diesel prices. These risks may end up creating a vicious circle in which high acquisition costs contribute to reduced fuel availability.

The recent US-Russia agreement allowing limited Russian diesel shipments is unlikely to materially change the picture. The quantities discussed remain modest relative to disrupted global product flows, while Russian refining and exports face their own constraints.

Meanwhile, elevated European natural gas prices add to the energy squeeze ahead of winter. With storage less comfortably filled than last year and uncertainty surrounding Middle East LNG supplies, Europe remains vulnerable to cold weather and further disruptions.

The key question in the short term is therefore not simply whether sufficient crude can be produced, but whether it can be transported, refined and delivered at an economically sustainable cost.

European and Asian refinery margins - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Gold challenges its downtrend as silver finds tentative support

Precious metals experienced another volatile week, with gold recovering from selling pressure following the stronger-than-expected US inflation report. The subsequent reversal lower in Treasury yields and the dollar provided support, leaving gold little changed on the week.

Despite the correction from last year's record highs, underlying investment demand remains resilient. As highlighted in our recent gold and silver update, rising ETF holdings have contrasted with speculative futures selling, suggesting that longer-term investors continue to absorb supply from more rate-sensitive traders.

Gold is showing tentative signs of breaking its recent downtrend. In our view, a sustained recovery above USD 4,235 would provide further evidence that the corrective phase is ending. Whether this develops into a sustained bullish trend will depend partly on momentum-driven traders, including hedge funds, shifting from net sellers to net buyers. Renewed speculative buying alongside resilient ETF demand could provide the necessary momentum.

The changing relationship between bond yields and equities may also become important. Gold traditionally struggles when real yields and the dollar rise, but declining yields driven by concerns about growth and equity valuations could provide a more supportive backdrop.

Silver has struggled to keep pace, recording a weekly decline of more than 5%. However, encouraging signs are emerging. Following a break above resistance around 72.60, the gold-silver ratio swiftly retraced part of its advance, suggesting investors may be rebuilding exposure at lower prices. If sustained, this could keep the ratio broadly rangebound around 68, as it has been since July.

Silver's industrial exposure leaves it vulnerable to weaker risk sentiment, but its dual role as an industrial and precious metal could become an advantage if lower yields, a softer dollar and renewed investor interest outweigh growth concerns. While an independent uptrend has yet to emerge, recent price action suggests underlying demand remains intact.

Gold retains the stronger technical picture, but silver's ability to attract buying on weakness offers encouragement. A sustained decline in the gold-silver ratio towards 68 would strengthen the case for renewed silver outperformance, particularly alongside improving risk appetite and a broader metals recovery.

Spot Gold - Source: Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Grains: Speculative liquidation adds to harvest pressure

The grain sector has suffered a correction of around 10% since early September, driven by accelerating US harvest pressure, disappointing Chinese buying and increasingly bearish supply estimates. Corn has been particularly hard hit following the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which raised its forecasts for US production and ending stocks.

December corn futures have consequently suffered a top-to-bottom decline of around 15% since early September, retracing 61.8% of the rally from July into early September. This represents an important technical area where traders may begin assessing whether the correction has become overextended.

Positioning has undoubtedly contributed to the weakness. During August, speculative investors accumulated exceptionally large long positions across key grain and soft commodity futures, leaving markets vulnerable to liquidation once prices began reversing. The subsequent selling has therefore reflected not only deteriorating fundamentals but also the unwinding of crowded positions, a combination that can produce sharp and occasionally exaggerated price movements.

The key question now is how much liquidation remains. The latest available CFTC data showed that speculative length in corn remained substantial ahead of the USDA report, suggesting that additional selling may have followed the bearish revisions. The next positioning update will be particularly important in assessing whether the market has moved closer to clearing the excess speculative exposure.

Soybeans have also struggled, with Chinese purchases falling short of earlier expectations. Although renewed buying could provide support, a sustained recovery will likely require stronger evidence of demand alongside signs that speculative selling is becoming exhausted.

For now, bearish fundamentals remain a challenge, but the combination of substantial price corrections, important technical support levels and potentially reduced speculative exposure raises the possibility of a recovery should the flow of negative news begin to ease.

Speculative positions in grains held by managed money accounts - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Industrial metals: Iron ore highlights China's persistent demand problems

Industrial metals have struggled to benefit fully from the softer dollar and declining yields, reflecting concerns about global growth and, in particular, the weakness of China's traditional construction-related demand. Copper has shown some resilience, supported by longer-term demand linked to electrification, power grids and data centres. However, elevated exchange-monitored inventories and uncertain near-term demand continue to limit upside momentum.

Iron ore presents an even clearer example of the challenges facing China's industrial economy. Singapore futures slipped below USD 90 per tonne to a two-year low, extending this year's decline to around 15%. The weakness reflects the combination of subdued steel demand and ample global supply, with new production from projects adding to an already well-supplied market. China's prolonged property downturn continues to weigh heavily on construction activity, with crude steel production during the first eight months of the year falling to its lowest level for that period since 2018.

The contrast with copper is notable. While both metals are exposed to Chinese economic activity, copper benefits from structural investment in electrification and energy infrastructure, whereas iron ore remains more directly dependent on construction and traditional steel-intensive growth.

Outlook: Scarcity and slowing growth create an increasingly difficult balance

The commodity market enters the remainder of the year facing two potentially conflicting forces. Persistent energy supply constraints continue to support crude, diesel and natural gas prices, while weaker risk sentiment, uncertainty surrounding economic growth and speculative liquidation weigh on other sectors.

Gold's resilience suggests that defensive investment demand remains intact, while silver's recovery from its weekly lows offers tentative evidence of renewed investor interest. At the same time, iron ore's continued decline highlights concerns about the industrial outlook.

The longer these disruptions persist, the greater the risk that inflationary pressure from energy eventually contributes to weaker demand elsewhere. For commodities, that points towards continued divergence rather than a broad-based advance, with physical scarcity supporting selected markets even as concerns about growth limit the upside in others.

Related articles/content
15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks 14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness 12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices 12 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 October 2026 9 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Fuel tightness and gold demand support recovery 8 Oct 2026: Gold caught between surging bond yields and rising fiscal concerns Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

15 Oct 2026: Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks
14 Oct 2026: Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness
12 Oct 2026: Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices
12 Oct 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 October 2026
9 Oct 2026: Commodity weekly Fuel tightness and gold demand support recovery
8 Oct 2026: Gold caught between surging bond yields and rising fiscal concerns

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Copper Mining Gold Silver Theme - Precious metals Energy (Sector) Soybean Natural Gas Gas Oil Gasoline

Comeback day and a giant sucking sound from Tesla.

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 09:35:00 Z

We now have a more important line in the sand.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

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