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Market Quick Take - 29 April 2026

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 06:29:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 29 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe slipped on AI worries; Asia was mixed as Korea’s chip rally met China and Japan weakness.
Volatility: VIX ~18; event-heavy; Fed + mega-cap earnings; upside skew
Digital Assets: BTC stable; ETH firmer; IBIT softer; ETHA steady
Currencies: USD firm in slow trading as US short yields rise slightly ahead of FOMC meeting
Commodities: Crude near war-cycle high as strait stays shut; gold steadies, wheat hits two-year high
Fixed Income: US short-dated yields rise slightly ahead of FOMC meeting with no strong policy guidance expected
Macro events: Canada and Fed Rate Decisions

Macro headlines

Australia’s March headline CPI came in at +1.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY vs. 4.8% YoY expected and 3.7% YoY in Feb. The core, “trimmed mean” readings for March were +0.3% MoM and the as expected 3.3% YoY. For the Q1 CPI readings, only the QoQ core trimmed mean reading surprised slightly, with a +0.8% reading versus 0.9% expected, while the YoY number was inline with expectations at 3.5%
US private payrolls rose an average of 39,250 per week in the four-week period ending April 11, according to ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
US same-store sales rose 7.7% year-over-year in the week ended April 25, according to Johnson Redbook, with sales benefiting from an extra selling day this year compared to last year due to the timing of Easter.
The UAE has decided to leave OPEC, effective 1 May, as it seeks release from the constraints imposed by OPEC quotas to gradually increase production in a post-war environment where supply tightness will be a focus for a prolonged period amid the global rebuild of commercial and strategic reserves. The departure of the UAE, one of OPEC's most influential members, will raise wider questions about the group's credibility and market power, given its future ability to managed prices by adjusting supply.
Meanwhile, President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, targeting the regime's coffers in a high-risk bid to compel Iran to end its nuclear program, a move Tehran has long refused.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone April Consumer, Economic Confidence
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1200 – Germany April CPI
1230 – US March Trade Balance
1230 – US March Housing Starts
1345 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1800 – Fed Rate Decision

Earnings this week

Yesterday/Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
Today/Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics, Adidas, Cadence Design Systems, Etsy, Domino’s Pizza, Ford Motor, DSV A/S, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Enskilda Banken, Sandoz Group
Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises, DHL Group, Schneider Electric, Unilever, Societe Generale
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi, Aalberts NV, Pearson PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,138.80, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 24,663.80, and the Dow slipped 0.1% to 49,141.93 as investors questioned the pace of artificial intelligence spending ahead of major tech earnings. Nvidia fell 1.6% after the OpenAI report hit AI-linked shares, while Oracle lost 4.1% and CoreWeave dropped 5.8% on concern about their exposure to OpenAI’s cloud spending. General Motors rose after lifting its annual profit outlook, while Coca-Cola gained 3.9% on stronger earnings. Markets now watch Big Tech results for proof that AI demand is still more than a very expensive group chat.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%, the DAX declined 0.3% to 24,018.26, and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 10,332.79 as technology weakness offset support from energy. The tech subindex lost 1.8% after the OpenAI report, with ASML down more than 3% and BE Semiconductor falling 5.1% as investors questioned near-term AI spending momentum. Energy shares softened the damage as BP gained 1.1% after earnings beat expectations, helped by stronger oil trading, while Shell and TotalEnergies rose more than 2%.
Asia: Asian markets were mixed, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 0.4% to a record 6,641.02, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9% to 25,679.78, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% to 59,917.46, and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 4,078.64. Korea continued to benefit from demand for high-bandwidth memory and data-centre chips, while Japan sold off AI and semiconductor names. Alibaba fell 2.8% in Hong Kong, and CATL dropped 6.9% after disclosing a HK$39.2 billion equity offering. BYD’s first-quarter net profit fell 55%, highlighting that China’s EV price war still has teeth.

Volatility

Volatility appears contained, but the setup remains event-heavy. The VIX closed at 17.83 (-1.05%), while shorter-term measures point to rising near-term sensitivity, with VIX1D at 11.66 (+10.3%) and VIX9D at 16.69. Markets are heading into a dense cluster of catalysts today, including the Federal Reserve decision, Powell’s press conference, and earnings from several mega-cap technology companies, which together can quickly shift sentiment. At the same time, higher oil prices and rising bond yields are adding pressure through renewed inflation concerns.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of roughly ±90 points (±1.26%) into Friday’s 1 May expiry, signalling that investors expect meaningful movement over the coming sessions.
For today’s expiry, the options chain shows a mild call-side skew rather than defensive put demand: near current levels, call implied volatility is around 18.4% versus ~15.7% for puts. This suggests positioning is not purely protective, with investors also willing to pay for upside exposure into key macro and earnings events.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are holding relatively firm despite the cautious macro backdrop, although the tone remains measured rather than strongly bullish. Bitcoin is trading around USD 77,249 (+1.2%), while Ethereum is near USD 2,329 (+1.75%), with Solana and XRP posting modest gains. Price action suggests stability, but the lack of strong follow-through highlights a market that is still waiting for clearer direction from macro drivers, including central bank policy and geopolitical developments.
ETF positioning remains mixed. IBIT is slightly lower (-0.67%), while ETHA is modestly higher (+0.58%), indicating diverging flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure. Options activity adds nuance: recent flows show continued medium-term call buying in IBIT, pointing to ongoing institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked upside. In contrast, crypto-related equities and miners continue to show a more mixed pattern of hedging, income generation and selective speculation. Overall, institutional participation remains present, but not broad-based enough to confirm a strong risk-on phase.

Fixed Income

The US treasury yield curve flattened as yields at the front end rose more than longer yields, perhaps on higher crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose nearly four basis points to nearly 3.84% Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield closed within the recent trading range and just below 4.35% after surging briefly to a new three week high of 4.378%
European yields rose sharply Tuesday as oil prices spiked higher. The benchmark 2-year Bund rose nearly eight basis points to 2.65% ahead of the Thursday ECB meeting this Thursday as anticipation of the central bank guiding for a June rate hike rises to a near certainty.

Commodities

Brent closed near the highs for this war-driven cycle on Tuesday, settling above USD 111, where it remains, as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets. The United Arab Emirates’s decision to leave OPEC and raise production is unlikely to have any short- to medium-term impact given the precarious state of depleted global stockpiles that will need rebuilding. Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today’s US inventory report for further signs of how quickly US stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand.
Gold trades steady following a two-day drop, with oil-led inflation risks remaining the main driver, as rising energy prices strengthen the dollar and reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook. For now, the market’s immediate focus remains on mediation efforts, with a reopening of the strait and a subsequent drop in oil prices representing the biggest short-term upside catalyst for both gold and silver.
Chicago wheat futures surged to their highest level in nearly two years, trading above USD 6.50 per bushel and lifting the year-to-date gain to 28%, as drought across key US growing regions pressures yields at a time when soaring fertilizer costs have prompted farmers to plant the fewest acres of wheat since record-keeping began in 1919.

Currencies

The US dollar remains at the strong end of the recent range in quiet trading ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, which will likely be Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair, assuming Kevin Warsh can have his nomination confirmed in time for the June meeting as Powell’s term ends May 15. EURUSD is stuck near 1.1700 and USDJPY hovering not far below 160.00.
USDCAD backed up to just below the 1.3700 level Tuesday and early Wednesday ahead of Bank of Canada and FOMC meetings later Wednesday after probing below 1.3600 briefly Monday, its lowest level since early March.
AUD traded mixed on slightly softer than anticipated CPI data (see above). While AUDUSD dipped slightly within the recent range to 0.7160, AUDNZD rose to a new cycle- and 13-yaer high above 1.2220 early Wednesday.
Europe’s souring growth outlook on higher energy prices is likely pushing the Swedish krone lower, as a recent EURSEK bid to take out the 10.75 area was rejected and the price action has backed up to 10.85+

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

The cognitive dissonance is getting painful here.

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 13:12:00 Z

Higher highs for energy and risk sentiment can only coexist for so long?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo’s piece on X-Energy as it IPO’d last week.
Ruben covers not just the X-Energy IPO, but a number of other players in the nuclear energy space. And here is a YouTube channel with X-Energy posts. Still not sure if I believe there is enough U 235 for scaling these kinds of power plants sufficiently to meaningfully power our economy - it makes up only about 0.7% of naturally occurring uranium ores and requires enormous processing overhead. Others want to go the thorium route, which has its own challenges.

What to do after the AI-crash?

Here’s a bold take that not only anticipates the crash of the AI bubble, but is a sort of public policy playbook on how to make the best of the situation out of the post-bubble wreckage for the public at large.

Mike Green on the death of the active manager before the passive tsunami.

And the dangerous implications, with a great sidebar on the recent silly AllBirds shoe-company-to-AI-infrastructure pivot pump-and-dump.

On the transition to post-social media.

Well, the “social” long ago left social media, but it is interesting to consider the level of disintermediation/disruption of incumbent platforms that might be possible in the age of AI.

The latest Hussman Funds report - amazing they keep it going.

Hussman continues to cling on to “the fundamentals mean something” campe years after the passive dominance has made life endless difficult for rational actors in global markets. It’s an admirable project and I fear the day they are proven right, if that day ever comes. The last time they flashed the “expected annualized returns” was in one of their January reports, which put annualized forward returns at something like -5% (that’s yearly…for twelve years"). Can fundamentalists stay liquid as long as the market can stay irrational/passive-Ponzi?

The US mid-term election in November is going to be an awful spectacle

As both Democrats and Republicansmercilessly gerrymander voting districts to politically tilt the Congressional makeup in their states, which will also heavily impact the 2028 presidential election. Here’s an idea - stop it?

Michael Every points out Russia not “winning” - certainly not financially.

Chart of the Day - EURUSD

The EURUSD chart has conflicting short term and longer term technicals here. The local setup looks constructive for the bulls after the rally cleared the recent resistance above 1.1600 and then as buyers fully eliminated the reaction to the war in Iran by taking the price back to 1.1800 and above, around where the pair traded the weekend before the war broke out. And yet, in the bigger picture, that rally stopped short near the 61.8% retracement of the monster sell-off from the 1.2081 high to 1.1411 low, a sell-off that profoundly challenged the longer term bull trend, with that key turnaround Fibo still in place.

So for the short term bullish case: From here, bulls will need for the 1.1625-50 zone to hold ideally, with 1.1575 as a kind of last gasp area of support/downside swing level.

For the medium term bearish case: If the price action fails below the 1.1575 downward swing level, focus reverts to the cycle lows and to a possible “C-wave” that eventually focuses on 1.1200-1.1250, the “A-wave” correction of the huge former bull move having unfolded from 1.2081 to 1.1411.

For the longer term bull case. Recall that EURUSD cleared the long term 1.1200+ resistance line from 2023-24 in early 2025 and remains in longer term bull mode assuming the 1.1200-50 zone continues to support. I prefer to look at shorter- and medium term trends compared to these very long term technical situations.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

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Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 12:03:00 Z

Meta’s options are pricing a 6.24% move into Wednesday’s earnings print. In each of the last four quarters, the stock actually moved more than 10%. That gap between implied and recent realised moves is exactly the kind of pricing detail that options traders watch heading into a major event. This week, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple all report within 48 hours, the densest concentration of mega-cap earnings this cycle.

Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026

Five of the seven largest stocks by market cap report in 48 hours. Here is what the options market is pricing ahead of the prints.

Monday’s record S&P 500 close was essentially a warm-up act. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon report on Wednesday; Apple follows on Thursday, the densest concentration of mega-cap earnings in a single week this cycle, with roughly $18.6 trillion in combined market cap on the line. The session’s tone was set by positioning, not conviction, and the options market is flagging some notable detail ahead of the prints.

Market snapshot

Equities at records, but the name-level picture tells a more nuanced story.

The S&P 500 edged to a new all-time high of 7,173.91 (+0.12%) on Monday, with the Nasdaq also touching a fresh record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13% to 49,167.79 as the session diverged sharply at the name level. Nvidia led the Magnificent Seven with a 4.0% gain, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index now on a 17-session winning streak, its longest run in over a decade. Alphabet added 1.72% ahead of its Wednesday print; Apple eased 1.27%, with Tim Cook’s September CEO exit continuing to weigh on sentiment. VIX settled at 18.02, down 3.69%, with WTI crude near $97.50 alongside a Hormuz-driven Brent premium above $108.

Options angle

VIX fell, but single-name implied volatility is telling a more active story.

While VIX fell on the day, single-name implied volatility tells a more active story. Meta heads into Wednesday’s print with the options market pricing an implied move of 6.24%, against an average post-earnings move of 10.65% across the last four quarters. In plain terms, the options market is pricing Meta to move less than it has in each of its last four earnings prints. Apple presents a different setup: short-dated implied vol will likely crush after Thursday’s print, but longer-dated uncertainty persists through the September leadership transition, a term structure dynamic worth watching. Nvidia’s 4.0% gain was positioning-driven rather than news-driven, with the actual earnings catalyst not arriving until May 20. The index put/call ratio jumped 17.5% on Monday even as spot vol fell, a sign that institutional players were adding index-level hedges into the earnings window. Record closes and defensive positioning are not mutually exclusive.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Meta: implied move versus recent history. The options market is pricing a 6.24% move for Meta into Wednesday’s results. Across the last four quarters, the stock has moved an average of 10.65% following its earnings print, in either direction. When implied volatility is set materially below the pace of recent realised earnings moves, one structure worth understanding is the long straddle: buying both a call and a put at the same strike. A straddle profits when the actual price move exceeds the total premium paid, regardless of direction. The trade carries no directional requirement, but it does carry time value risk: if the stock barely moves after results, both legs lose value.

Strategy insight – Apple: a term structure worth watching. Following any earnings print, short-dated implied volatility typically deflates sharply as the event risk resolves. For Apple reporting Thursday, that near-term crush is a near-structural certainty. What is less certain is how the longer-dated vol surface responds to the September CEO transition, a longer-running uncertainty that short-dated options do not capture. A calendar spread, selling a short-dated option and buying a longer-dated one, is one structure that attempts to harvest the near-term crush while maintaining some exposure to the out-month uncertainty. The key risk: if the stock makes a large move following results, the spread can lose more than expected on the short leg.

Conclusion

This is the week where the options market earns its keep. Five of the seven largest stocks by market cap report in 48 hours, and at least one of them, Meta, appears mispriced on implied vol relative to its own recent earnings history. Heading into today’s session, the cleaner read is in single names rather than at the index level: the record close masks significant dispersion underneath, and that dispersion is precisely where the pricing inefficiencies are sitting.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke

Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation risks

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:20:00 Z

Key points:

Oil-led inflation risks, not geopolitics, is driving near-term precious metal weakness, as rising energy prices strengthen the dollar and reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook
Gold's setback looks cyclical, not structural, with the long-term support pillars remaining firmly in place
Silver's correction has removed speculative excess, but its outlook remains more fragile given its vulnerability to weaker industrial demand and shifting investment flows
Gold remains the stronger strategic allocation, while silver remains the higher-beta precious metal: greater upside potential, but also greater downside risk.

The precious metals market has spent the past several months undergoing a sharp reset. Following an explosive rally that took gold, and not least silver, to fresh record highs, both metals have since corrected - not because their long-term fundamentals have materially weakened, but because the macro backdrop has shifted abruptly in the wake of the Iran war. Rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, firmer inflation expectations and a renewed higher-for-longer view on US interest rates have together created a more challenging short-term environment for non-yielding assets.

Gold has fallen to a three-week low, with technical selling emerging after a break below recent support around USD 4,650. The key point is that rising oil prices - not rising geopolitical tensions - currently hold the upper hand. With Brent crude climbing above USD 111, the market’s focus remains squarely on the inflationary impact of higher energy costs at a time when AI-driven investment spending continues to support US growth, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates for now. Adding to the near-term uncertainty, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings on Wednesday, the same day the FOMC meets to assess the economic outlook.

For now, the directional focus is squarely on the energy market after oil extended its rally, with Brent trading above USD 111 amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel. The market’s immediate focus remains on mediation efforts, with a reopening of the strait and a subsequent drop in oil being the biggest short term upside catalyst for the metals.

Gold and silver remain higher on the year despite recent deep corrections, while renewed strength across the energy sector is refocusing attention on inflation - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Gold: delayed, not derailed

Earlier this year we did not rule out gold reaching USD 6,000 by year-end, but since then a USD 1,500 correction from the USD 5,595 peak has changed both the path and the timing. For now, rising oil prices and the resulting inflation shock are reinforcing dollar strength and pushing back expectations for monetary easing, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold in the short term.

However, while the conflict has become a near-term hurdle, it does not represent a roadblock. The structural drivers that powered gold’s rally over the past two years remain firmly in place and, in several cases, have strengthened.

Beyond the current oil-driven inflation focus, the longer-term support pillars remain intact. Stagflation risks persist, not least due to the energy crisis and its short- to medium-term impact on prices and economic activity. Fiscal debt burdens continue to mount, and while the dollar’s reserve currency status is not under imminent threat, there remains a visible trend among some central banks and sovereign institutions to diversify reserves and gradually reduce reliance on the greenback. Gold remains the natural alternative reserve asset in that process.

Unlike most commodities, gold benefits from being first and foremost a monetary metal. Higher prices do not materially destroy demand in the same way they do in industrial commodities. Jewellery demand may soften at elevated levels, and reserve managers may slow accumulation simply because rising prices lift the value of existing holdings, but structurally gold remains relatively immune to higher prices compared with other metals.

From a technical perspective, gold’s 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,250, remains major support. As long as that level broadly holds, the longer-term uptrend remains intact.

Gold remains in a correction phase with key support being the 200-day moving average (shown as 40-week MA on the chart) - Source: Saxo

Silver: strong fundamentals, fragile conviction

Silver’s story is more complicated. After a relentless surge into January’s peak, the market became overextended. Tight physical supply, booming photovoltaic demand and speculative enthusiasm - helped along by social media-driven momentum - pushed prices to levels that increasingly required perfection to hold.

While a correction was already under way, the Iran war became the catalyst for a sharper reset. Higher oil prices strengthened the dollar, lifted inflation concerns and pushed rate-cut expectations further out, creating a much less supportive macro backdrop for precious metals. Silver, being more volatile and partly dependent on industrial demand, was hit harder than gold as longs rushed for the exit.

In many ways, however, that correction was healthy. It removed excess froth and speculative positioning that had left the market vulnerable. The long-term supply story remains supportive. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, produced by Metals Focus, forecasts a sixth annual deficit, with demand continuing to exceed available mine and recycled supply, forcing a further drawdown in above-ground inventories. As the survey notes, shrinking above-ground stocks leave the market vulnerable to bursts of reduced liquidity, volatile prices, elevated premiums and tighter lease rates. In addition, strong Chinese demand from the photovoltaic sector, as well as private investors, continues to underpin the market, while the current energy crisis may reinforce the push towards renewable energy, supporting solar-related silver demand over time.

That said, silver faces a more nuanced outlook than gold. Industrial demand remains exposed to cyclical weakness. A prolonged period of elevated inflation and slower growth could weigh on consumption from electronics, consumer goods and manufacturing. At the same time, investment demand - which is expected to play a major role in maintaining the market deficit - is notoriously fickle and can reverse quickly if technical momentum weakens or the macro narrative shifts.

This is why silver remains the higher-beta precious metal: greater upside potential, but also greater downside risk.

Silver's deep correction was paused near USD 64 - Source: Saxo

Relative outlook: gold first, silver second

Once the dust of war settles and energy supply chains begin to normalise, gold should once again find support from monetary demand, reserve diversification, fiscal concerns and continued geopolitical uncertainty. It is less exposed to cyclical demand destruction and less vulnerable to sharp swings in investor sentiment.

Silver remains fundamentally constructive, but its outlook depends more heavily on industrial demand resilience and continued investor participation. The market can still tighten materially, and under a bullish macro scenario silver may once again outperform gold. But that path is likely to remain volatile.

At current levels, the gold-silver ratio near 62 shows silver already trading relatively expensive versus its long-term average near 70, suggesting silver may need a fresh catalyst - whether tighter physical supply, stronger industrial demand or renewed speculative appetite - to materially outperform from here.

The bull market in precious metals looks paused, not over. Gold appears delayed, not derailed, with the long-term drivers behind the rally still firmly in place. Silver retains substantial upside over time, but after January’s excesses it remains vulnerable to macro setbacks and swings in investor conviction.

In short, gold remains the strategic allocation, while silver remains the tactical opportunity - higher risk, higher reward, and best handled with respect for its volatility.

Investment demand through ETF remains sticky while momentum following speculators in futures have sharply reduced their exposure, waiting for the next technical signal. Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil Gold Silver

The great earnings squeeze: can record margins survive the real economy?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

S&P 500 margins look strong, but this week tests whether that strength is broad.
Oil, freight and cautious consumers may separate real pricing power from hope.
Payments, staples, energy, healthcare and industrials offer a cleaner read on the real economy.

The market has enjoyed a strong profit story. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is reporting a blended net profit margin of 13.4% for the first quarter of 2026. If confirmed, that would be the highest margin since FactSet began tracking the data in 2009. Analysts also expect margins to rise further through the rest of 2026.

Source: FactSet Insights.

That is impressive. It is also a high bar. Earnings season now asks a less comfortable question: can companies keep those margins when oil is higher, consumers are more selective, and costs still refuse to sit quietly in the corner?

This week is not only about Big Tech. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Apple will still draw the headlines, especially as investors watch artificial intelligence spending. But the more useful clues may come from companies closer to the real economy: Visa, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, UPS, BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Airbus, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Caterpillar and others. They can show whether the profit story is broad, or whether the market is leaning too heavily on technology’s very large shoulders.

The consumer is not broken, but is getting choosy

Visa and Mastercard are simple but powerful economic thermometers. They run global card payment networks, so their results help show whether people are still spending across shops, travel, services and online purchases. They do not tell us everything, but they do show whether money is still moving.

The harder question is where that money goes. Coca-Cola and Mondelez test the strength of everyday brands. If consumers keep buying drinks and snacks despite higher prices, that points to pricing power. If volumes weaken, it suggests shoppers are still spending, but with a sharper pencil.

Starbucks is another useful signal. Coffee is not a mortgage payment, but it is a daily habit for many consumers. When people start trading down from small treats, it can say something about confidence. Not everything important in markets arrives wearing a suit.

Travel names add another layer. Booking Holdings and Royal Caribbean help show whether holidays and experiences remain a priority. A strong travel consumer can support margins in premium services, but it may also hide weakness in lower-income households. The consumer story is no longer one clean line. It is a split screen.

Oil helps one pocket and empties another

Higher oil prices create winners and victims at the same time. BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Chevron can benefit from stronger energy prices, better trading conditions and improved refining margins. For these companies, higher oil can lift cash flow and support shareholder returns.

For many others, oil is less friendly. It raises fuel costs for logistics companies such as UPS. It can pressure airlines, packaging, chemicals and consumer goods companies. It can also hurt carmakers such as General Motors if higher petrol prices and financing costs make consumers more cautious about big purchases.

That is why oil is not just an energy story. It is a margin story. It touches the cost of moving goods, making goods and selling goods to households that already face higher bills. Very few companies enjoy being squeezed from both sides. Accountants are not known for their love of drama.

This is also where investors should look beneath the headline S&P 500 margin. FactSet notes that the energy sector’s first-quarter margin remains below its five-year average, even as oil is back in focus. That reminds us that higher commodity prices do not automatically mean stronger profits. Timing, refining, production costs and capital discipline still matter.

The real economy speaks quietly

Industrials rarely dominate earnings season, but they often tell the truth first. Airbus can show whether aircraft demand remains strong and whether supply chains are improving. Caterpillar gives a read on construction, mining and infrastructure spending. Atlas Copco is a window into factory equipment demand. Linde, which supplies industrial gases, shows whether essential business-to-business demand is holding up.

These companies matter because they sit close to real investment decisions. Orders, backlogs and margins can reveal whether companies are still expanding, delaying projects, or waiting for more clarity. That is more useful than another speech about “uncertainty”, though admittedly less dramatic.

Healthcare provides a different kind of test. Novartis and AstraZeneca offer a read on global drug demand and research pipelines. Eli Lilly remains tied to high expectations around obesity and diabetes treatments. AbbVie, Merck and Amgen bring the more mature side of healthcare, where patent risk, cash flow and new medicines matter.

Healthcare is less exposed to oil and daily consumer mood than many sectors. That can make it defensive. But defensive does not mean risk-free. When valuations are high, even stable companies need to deliver.

Big Tech is the shadow, not the whole stage

Big Tech still matters because it carries a large share of the index. Reuters Business notes that companies representing 44% of the S&P 500’s market value report this week, including the major technology names. That makes this a crucial week for market direction.

But for long-term investors, the broader question is not only whether the largest companies can keep spending on artificial intelligence. It is whether the rest of the market can defend profits without the same growth halo.

If Big Tech shines while consumer, industrial and transport companies weaken, the index may look healthier than the average business underneath. That is not necessarily a problem, but it is a concentration risk worth watching.

Risks that can spoil the meal

The first risk is that margins are too dependent on technology. If record profits come mainly from a few giant companies, the headline index margin may hide pressure elsewhere.

The second risk is that higher oil prices spread through the economy. Investors should watch fuel costs, freight commentary, packaging costs and any signs that companies need more discounts to protect volumes.

The third risk is consumer fatigue. Card spending can stay solid even if households become more selective. The warning signs are weaker volumes, smaller transactions and management comments about trading down.

Investor playbook

Watch margins, not only sales. Revenue growth matters less if costs rise faster.
Compare pricing power across sectors. Strong brands and essential services should hold up better.
Separate oil winners from oil victims. Energy gains can still pressure the wider market.
Treat Big Tech as context, not the full market. Index strength can hide weaker breadth.

The quieter test beneath the headlines

The market has enjoyed a very profitable meal, but this earnings week brings the bill. Big Tech will attract the brightest lights, yet the quieter clues may come from card payments, coffee cups, freight trucks, medicines, aircraft parts and barrels of oil. These are the companies closer to daily economic life. If they can protect margins, the profit story looks broader and healthier. If they cannot, record margins may look less like a new normal and more like a very good table at a crowded restaurant: pleasant while it lasts, but not guaranteed next time.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

ArcelorMittal earnings: what a 10% options move can teach traders

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 06:30:00 Z

ArcelorMittal reports earnings on Thursday, and the options market is already pricing a move of more than 10%. That is the starting point for this case study. In this article, I walk through how to read the expected move from option chain data, how to structure a range-bound view using an iron condor, and why defined risk is not the same as low risk.

ArcelorMittal earnings: what a 10% options move can teach traders

ArcelorMittal reports earnings on Thursday, and for investors looking at the shares through an options lens, the key question is not only whether the company beats or misses expectations. It is also whether the share price moves more, or less, than the options market is already pricing in.

For this article, we use ArcelorMittal’s Amsterdam-listed shares and options. ArcelorMittal is a dual-listed stock, with active trading in Amsterdam and in the US through its ADR listing. Options are available in both markets, but based on the open interest shown in the option chains, the Amsterdam listing appears to offer the more liquid options market for this specific case study.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

The setup: a stock with room to move

ArcelorMittal’s Amsterdam-listed shares were trading around EUR 50.60 in the latest snapshot. The longer-term trend still looks constructive, with the shares above their 200-day and 200-week moving averages, but the stock has also become much more volatile after its strong rally and subsequent pullback. That makes it a useful educational case study for earnings trading.

ArcelorMittal’s Amsterdam-listed shares remain above their longer-term moving averages, even after a sharp pullback from earlier highs. Source: SaxoTrader

What the options market is pricing

Using the 15 May monthly options, the near-the-money 51-strike call and put trade at a combined midpoint of roughly EUR 5.43. With the share price near EUR 50.60, that suggests the options market is pricing a broad move of a little over 10% by expiry. In simple terms, that points to a rough range of about EUR 45 on the downside and EUR 56 on the upside.

Using the 15 May monthly options, the near-the-money 51-strike call and put imply a broad range of roughly EUR 45 to EUR 56 by expiry. Source: SaxoTrader

This expected move is an estimate, not a forecast. It does not say whether the shares should rise or fall. It simply gives traders a market-implied range to compare against their own view. That distinction matters around earnings, because a trader can be correct about the company’s direction but still be disappointed if the share-price move is smaller than the options market had priced in.

Why focus on one strategy?

Investors who have a clear directional view could use other defined-risk structures. A bullish investor could consider a bull call spread, while a bearish investor could consider a bear put spread. Those strategies are designed for traders who want to express a clearer view on direction.

This article isolates a different view for educational purposes: what if the options market is already pricing enough movement, and the shares stay broadly within the expected range after earnings? One way to structure that view is with an iron condor.

The iron condor example

In the example shown here, the structure uses the 15 May expiry with a long 41 put, a short 45 put, a short 56 call, and a long 60 call. In practical terms, the trade sells a defined-risk put spread below the market and a defined-risk call spread above the market.

The position brings in a net credit of about EUR 1.04 per share, or roughly EUR 104 per standard contract covering 100 shares, before costs. The short strikes are at EUR 45 and EUR 56, broadly around the expected range shown by the options market.

This example iron condor uses short strikes at EUR 45 and EUR 56, with long wings at EUR 41 and EUR 60, creating defined risk on both sides. Source: SaxoTrader

Profit, risk, and breakeven levels

The maximum profit is the premium received. In this example, that is about EUR 104 before costs. This maximum profit is achieved if ArcelorMittal closes between the two short strikes, EUR 45 and EUR 56, at expiry, so that both short options expire worthless.

The maximum risk is defined by the width of either spread minus the premium received. Both spreads are EUR 4 wide: the put spread is between EUR 41 and EUR 45, and the call spread is between EUR 56 and EUR 60. A EUR 4-wide spread equals EUR 400 of maximum spread exposure per standard contract covering 100 shares. After subtracting the EUR 104 premium received, the maximum risk is about EUR 296 before costs.

The breakeven levels are also based on the short strikes and the premium received. The lower breakeven is the short put strike minus the premium received, or roughly EUR 45 minus EUR 1.04, which gives about EUR 43.96. The upper breakeven is the short call strike plus the premium received, or roughly EUR 56 plus EUR 1.04, which gives about EUR 57.04.

What needs to happen?

This iron condor is designed around a range-bound view. The ideal outcome is that ArcelorMittal’s earnings reaction is smaller than the market-implied move, implied volatility falls after the event, and the shares remain between the short strikes.

The risk is that earnings trigger a larger move than expected. If the shares fall below EUR 45 or rise above EUR 56, losses start to build. If the move continues toward the long put at EUR 41 or the long call at EUR 60, the trade can approach its maximum loss.

This is why an iron condor is not a low-risk trade simply because risk is defined. Defined risk means the maximum loss is known in advance. It does not mean the probability or size of loss is small.

Why not use a strangle?

A more aggressive version of this range-bound idea would be a short strangle. In simple terms, that means selling the out-of-the-money put and call without buying the protective wings. In this example, it would be similar to removing the long 41 put and long 60 call from the iron condor.

The advantage is that the trader receives more premium and has more flexibility to manage the position. The trade-off is much greater risk, because the position no longer has defined maximum loss. A sharp move after earnings can therefore become very costly. Short strangles require strong risk management and a clear adjustment plan. Without that, the higher premium can quickly become an expensive lesson.

The lesson for traders

The useful lesson is that earnings trading is not only about being right on the company. It is about matching the view to the structure. Direction matters, but so do the expected move, implied volatility, time to expiry, liquidity, and the size of the defined risk.

This ArcelorMittal example is therefore not presented as the preferred way to trade the earnings event. It is a practical case study showing how an iron condor can be used to express one specific educational view: that the post-earnings move may remain inside the range already implied by the options market.

Frequently asked questions

What does the expected move mean?

The expected move is an estimate of how much the options market is pricing for the share price by a certain expiry date. In this case, the 15 May options suggest a broad move of roughly 10% around the current share price. It is not a prediction of direction.

Why use the Amsterdam-listed options instead of the US ADR options?

ArcelorMittal trades both in Amsterdam and in the US through its ADR listing. Options are available in both markets, but the Amsterdam-listed options show higher open interest in the chain used for this article, making them the more relevant market for this educational example.

What is an iron condor?

An iron condor is an options strategy that combines a short put spread below the market and a short call spread above the market. It is designed for a range-bound view and has defined maximum profit and defined maximum risk.

When can an iron condor work?

An iron condor can work when the share price stays between the short strikes and the premium received is not offset by an adverse price move. Around earnings, it may also benefit if implied volatility falls after the event, but only if the share-price move remains contained.

What is the main risk of an iron condor?

The main risk is a larger-than-expected move. If the share price moves beyond one of the short strikes, losses can build. The long options limit the maximum loss, but they do not prevent the position from losing money.

How is the maximum risk calculated in this example?

Each spread is EUR 4 wide. With a standard contract covering 100 shares, that equals EUR 400 of maximum spread exposure. The position receives about EUR 104 in premium, so the maximum risk is approximately EUR 400 minus EUR 104, or EUR 296 before costs.

Why not use a short strangle instead?

A short strangle can collect more premium because it does not include the protective long options. However, that also means the maximum risk is not defined. It may offer more flexibility for experienced traders, but it requires disciplined risk management and can be dangerous if the share price moves sharply after earnings.

What if an investor has a bullish or bearish view?

A trader with a clearly bullish view could consider a bull call spread, while a trader with a bearish view could consider a bear put spread. Those structures are also defined-risk strategies, but they express a more directional view than the iron condor discussed in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke Volatility and event strategies Defined risk strategies Sell premium credit strategies Trading Strategies Option Strategies

Market Quick Take - 28 April 2026

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 06:19:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 28 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US stocks held record highs, Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, while Asian chips rallied on Hormuz hopes.
Volatility: VIX holds near 18 in event-heavy week
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stays below 80k while ethereum lags, with IBIT and ETHA weaker as positioning turns more cautious
Fixed Income: Odds of BoJ rate hike rising after hawkish dissents and more hawkish guidance from BoJ meeting
Currencies: JPY rallies on more hawkish BoJ, USD also firm on geopolitical concerns
Commodities: Oil’s continued rally weighing on gold and silver
Macro events: Ueda’s Press Briefing & US April Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

The yen pushed higher after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 split vote, with traders now seeing a 74% chance of a rate hike in June. The board raised its forecast for core inflation to 2.8% for this fiscal year, more than expected while revising economic growth of 0.5% from 1% previously. Attention now turns to Ueda’s press briefing at 6:30 GMT.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% at its policy meeting on Wednesday, with the central bank gathering overshadowed by political drama surrounding the leadership handover. A Justice Department decision last week to drop a controversial criminal investigation of the Fed has cleared the way for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
US-Iran peace talks remain at an impasse, with efforts to restart negotiations stalled. Iranian media report that the conflict could end if the US lifts its naval blockade, agrees to a new legal framework governing traffic through the Strait, and guarantees there will be no future attacks. However, Trump’s red lines -including preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon - remain a major sticking point separating the two sides.
A packed week of central bank rate decisions is underway, with the Bank of Japan already meeting Tuesday, while the Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all scheduled to set interest rates this week. This marks a rare week in which every Group of Seven central bank convenes.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Ueda’s post BOJ meeting press briefing
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for four weeks ending Apr 11
1300 – US Feb. Home Price Index
1400 – US Apr. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
1400 – US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence
1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
0130 – Australia Mar. and Q1 CPI

Earnings this week

Yesterday/Monday: Verizon, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Today/Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics
Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,173.91, while the Nasdaq 100 was little changed and the Dow slipped 0.1% as investors waited for a heavy megacap earnings week. Nvidia gained 4.0% and closed at a record high as AI enthusiasm pushed its market value above USD 5 trillion, while Arm Holdings fell 8.1% on concerns it may be left out of a possible Qualcomm-OpenAI chip project. Domino’s Pizza dropped 8.8% after missing earnings and revenue expectations, a reminder that even pizza is not immune to consumer pressure. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple now take the microphone.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% to 608.84, while the DAX lost 0.2%, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.6% and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.4% as higher oil and stalled US-Iran talks kept pressure on risk appetite. ASML fell 3.0% and was the biggest drag on the wider index as technology weakened, while Verisure dropped 5.9%. Siemens Energy lost 5.4% in Frankfurt, adding to the DAX’s sixth straight decline, while Shell weighed on London as energy risks stayed front and centre. Investors now look to central bank signals and whether earnings can steady the mood.
Asia: Asian stocks rose after reports that Iran had offered a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helping sentiment recover after recent energy worries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.2% to 6,615.03 as chip strength did most of the heavy lifting. SK Hynix rose 5.7% and Samsung Electronics gained 2.3% on memory and AI optimism, while Taiwan’s Taiex was supported by TSMC reaching a record high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.6%, with Seatrium down 2.9%, showing the rally was broad, but not universal.

Volatility

Volatility eased, but it has not disappeared. The VIX closed at 18.02 (-3.69%) on 27 April, while very short-term measures dropped more sharply, with VIX1D at 10.57 (-36%), suggesting near-term calm before a heavier event window. That window includes the Fed decision on 29 April, a dense run of Mag-7 earnings, and continued uncertainty around the Iran situation and oil prices. Investors are still participating in markets, but the backdrop remains one of caution rather than confidence.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of about 97 points, or 1.35%, into Friday (1 May) from around 7,174.
For today’s expiry, the expected move is much smaller at roughly 31 points, or 0.43%, reflecting a quieter session ahead of the main catalysts. The skew signal for today is balanced: around the 7,175 strike, call and put implied volatility are almost identical (~13.8% vs ~13.7%), indicating no strong demand for immediate downside protection. That said, broader positioning still leans defensive, suggesting investors remain hedged into the key events.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets are softer this morning as investors trim risk ahead of central bank decisions and major earnings. Bitcoin is trading around USD 76,950 (-0.6%), holding below the key USD 80,000 level, while Ethereum sits near USD 2,290 (-0.7%). The move reflects a more cautious tone across global markets, with macro uncertainty and higher energy prices weighing on sentiment.
ETF performance shows a similar pattern. Bitcoin exposure remains relatively resilient, but IBIT declined around 1.0%, suggesting some near-term profit taking. Ethereum-linked exposure continues to lag, with ETHA down about 1.4%, reinforcing weaker relative demand. Across altcoins, the tone is mildly negative but orderly: Solana (~USD 84) and XRP (~USD 1.39) are lower, while crypto-related equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also under pressure.
Options flow confirms a more defensive stance, with increased demand for downside protection in Bitcoin-related products and crypto equities, while selective upside exposure remains. The overall signal is not risk-off, but more cautious positioning into a busy macro week.

Fixed Income

US treasuries traded in tight ranges, showing little reaction to the latest significant rise in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose slightly to 3.80% and the benchmark 10-year yield likewise edged higher, to close to the two-week range high near 4.35%.
Japan’s short-dated government bond yields rose on a more hawkish than expected Bank of Japan meeting Tuesday (see above). As of this writing, BoJ Governor Ueda has yet to start the post-BoJ meeting press conference. Odds of a BoJ rate hike in June only rose slightly, while the benchmark 2-year JGB yield nudged a bit more than a basis point higher to near 1.38%, slightly below the highs of last week. Longer yields were almost unchanged after a slight rise earlier in the session on Tuesday.

Commodities

Oil extended its rally, with Brent trading near USD 111 amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel. The market’s immediate focus remains on mediation efforts, with a new Iranian proposal reportedly under consideration by the US administration.
Gold continues to lose ground, falling in early European trading to a three-week low of USD 4,625 as traders remain focused on rising energy prices - with Brent climbing to USD 111 - and the resulting inflationary impact at a time when AI-driven investment spending is helping support US growth, thereby reducing the FOMC’s need to cut rates for now. However, the stagflationary impact of the energy crisis, combined with mounting fiscal debt concerns and an ongoing de-dollarisation trend, remains supportive over the longer term, with these drivers currently being overshadowed by the market’s near-term focus on oil-driven inflation. Meanwhile economic growth and industrial demand dependent silver trades near USD 73.50 with the gold-silver ratio rising above 63.

Currencies

The Japanese yen gained on a more hawkish BoJ stance and the three hawkish dissenting voices in the decision to keep rates unchanged at Tuesday’s meeting (see more above). Ahead of what could prove an impactful BoJ Governor Ueda press conference late Tuesday in Tokyo, USDJPY trades near 159.15 after a low just below 159.00 post-BoJ decision, while EURJPY trades near 186.30, down from 186.87 on Monday’s close.
The US dollar rose Monday and early Tuesday, outpacing most G10 currencies aside from the strong Japanese yen. This is perhaps on the fresh aggravated rise in crude oil prices that is taking the steam out of risk sentiment late Monday and early Tuesday. EURUSD pushed below 1.1710 early Tuesday after a rally attempt Monday that faltered above 1.1750, while AUDUSD was more resilient, only backing off to below 0.7180 after a rally as high as 0.7200 on Monday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

BOJ’s hawkish hold: When inflation risk beats growth fear

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 05:30:00 Z

Key points:

BOJ’s hold was hawkish beneath the surface: The 6–3 vote split shows more policymakers are leaning toward rate hikes as imported inflation risks rise from higher energy costs and Middle East tensions.
The hawkish bias is spreading globally: Markets are pricing renewed tightening risk across several central banks, with the RBA, BOJ, ECB, BoE and RBNZ all showing meaningful hike pricing. The Fed remains the main outlier.
This could be a tougher setup for equities and short-end bonds: If inflation arrives before growth weakness becomes obvious, central banks may stay restrictive for longer. That could keep short-end yields elevated and pressure equity valuations, especially in long-duration growth and margin-sensitive sectors.

The Bank of Japan’s latest decision may look like a hold on the surface, but the message beneath it was more important: even one of the world’s most cautious central banks is becoming less comfortable waiting when energy-driven inflation risks are rising.

The BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, but the vote split was the real signal. The decision passed by a 6–3 majority, compared with an 8–1 split at the previous meeting, meaning two more policymakers shifted into the rate-hike camp. That growing dissent suggests the debate inside the BOJ is moving from whether inflation is sustainable enough to justify tightening, to how long the central bank can afford to wait as imported inflation risks rise.

The hawkish dissent reflected rising concern that inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and higher energy costs are becoming harder to ignore.

That matters well beyond Japan.

The BOJ is exposing the central-bank dilemma

The Middle East conflict and disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz have created a difficult policy mix: higher imported costs, weaker growth, and more volatile inflation expectations.

For central banks, that is the worst kind of shock. It is not a clean demand boom where tighter policy clearly cools activity. It is a supply shock, where higher energy and raw material costs hurt households and companies even as they push inflation higher.

But the BOJ’s hawkish tilt suggests policymakers may still feel forced to act. Inflation shows up in the data faster than growth weakness does. That means central banks may fight the inflation battle in front of them before they get enough evidence of the growth damage behind it.

The BOJ is not alone: the hawkish bias is spreading

The key read-through is not that every central bank will suddenly hike. It is that the bar for dovishness has risen.

The BOJ’s hawkish hold now sits within a broader global repricing of central-bank risk. The chart below shows how much tightening markets are pricing by each central bank’s next meeting, and when a full 25bp hike is first implied. Australia stands out as the most hawkish near-term case, with around 20bp priced by the RBA’s next meeting and a full hike priced by June. The BOJ, ECB and Bank of England are not far behind, with roughly 17–19bp priced by their next meetings and a full hike priced by July or September. The RBNZ also shows meaningful July hike risk, while Canada looks more delayed, with a full hike only priced by December. The Fed remains the clear outlier: markets are not pricing renewed tightening, reinforcing the idea that global policy expectations are no longer moving as one block.

The common thread is clear: central banks may still worry about growth, but they are becoming less willing to look through inflation shocks. In a world of disrupted energy supply, higher transport costs and more fragile inflation expectations, policymakers may prefer to move too early on inflation rather than too late.

For markets, that means the old “growth scare equals rate cuts” playbook may not work as cleanly. If inflation concerns dominate first, short-end yields can stay under pressure, rate-cut hopes can be delayed, and equities may struggle to find relief from central banks even as the growth outlook softens.

Why this matters for global markets

The key message is not just about Japan. It is about the global policy reaction function.

If energy costs remain elevated, central banks may find it harder to talk about rate cuts, even if growth risks are building. That could keep pressure on short-end bonds, where pricing is most sensitive to policy expectations. It could also weigh on equities, especially:

Long-duration growth stocks that depend heavily on lower discount rates
Companies with limited pricing power and greater exposure to margin pressure
Sectors where valuations assume stable inflation, falling yields and benign financing conditions

The BOJ’s situation is especially striking because Japan has historically moved cautiously. If even the BOJ is being pushed toward a tighter stance, investors may need to take seriously the risk that the global central-bank put is weaker than markets assume.

Equities: the risk is not just earnings, but multiples

For stocks, the danger is twofold.

Higher energy and input costs can squeeze margins, especially for companies with weak pricing power.
Higher policy-sensitive yields can pressure valuations, particularly in long-duration growth stocks.

This does not mean equities need to fall sharply from here. Markets can still look through geopolitical shocks if investors believe there is an eventual off-ramp. But the BOJ’s message makes the “benign shock” narrative harder to sustain. If inflation expectations rise and central banks lean hawkish into slowing growth, the equity market faces a tougher mix.

Bottom line

The BOJ’s hawkish hold is a warning shot. The Middle East shock is no longer just a geopolitical risk for markets; it is becoming a central-bank risk.

If inflation pressure arrives before growth weakness becomes undeniable, policymakers may tighten or stay restrictive for longer than markets expect. That keeps upward pressure on short-end yields, complicates the case for equities, and makes the next round of global central-bank meetings more important than usual.

The uncomfortable message from Tokyo is simple: in a stagflationary shock, central banks may not come to the market’s rescue as quickly as investors hope.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Macro Artificial Intelligence Equities Federal Reserve Commodities Forex Government Bonds Bonds Japan Japan 225 Bank of Japan

Tesla shares after earnings – could a covered call make sense?

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 13:28:00 Z

Tesla is trading at USD 376 after earnings - and for shareholders who already own 100 shares, there is a strategy worth understanding. A covered call allows you to collect option premium from shares you already hold, in exchange for accepting a cap on your upside. In the example from this article, selling the ...

Tesla shares after earnings – could a covered call make sense?

Tesla remains one of the most widely followed stocks in the market. For long-term shareholders who already own 100 shares, a covered call can be a practical way to generate option premium from an existing position. The trade-off is clear: you receive income today, but you may have to sell your shares if Tesla rises above the agreed strike price.

Tesla shares are shown at USD 376.30 after the latest earnings period, below recent highs but above the April low. This creates a practical example for shareholders considering whether they would be comfortable selling at a higher price. Source: SaxoTrader

Why Tesla is a useful example

Tesla’s latest earnings kept the stock in focus, with investors still weighing vehicle demand, margins, artificial intelligence investment, robotics, and future capital spending. In short, the Tesla story remains exciting, but not exactly calm. Tesla rarely does calm.

For shareholders, that volatility can be uncomfortable. A covered call is one way to use some of that volatility, but it does not remove the risk of owning Tesla shares. It changes the balance between income, upside, and flexibility.

This example is aimed at investors who already own at least 100 Tesla shares and have never sold a covered call before.

What is a covered call?

A covered call means selling a call option against shares you already own. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy shares at a fixed price, called the strike price, before or at expiry. Because you already own the shares, the position is called “covered”.

The seller receives a premium for selling the option. In return, the seller accepts a limit on potential upside above the strike price. Put simply: a covered call can generate income from shares you already own, but it may also require you to sell those shares at a pre-agreed price.

The Tesla example

In the screenshots used for this article, Tesla is trading at USD 376.30. The investor already owns 100 Tesla shares, worth approximately USD 37,630 before fees and taxes.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

The example uses the Tesla call option expiring on 15 May 2026, with a strike price of USD 400. The option chain shows the 400 call with a bid price of USD 6.45 and an ask price of USD 6.55. That means the option is quoted around USD 6.50 per share, or around USD 650 for one standard 100-share option contract before fees.

The Tesla 15 May 2026 option chain shows the 400 call with a bid of USD 6.45 and an ask of USD 6.55. For one standard option contract covering 100 shares, that equals roughly USD 645–655 in premium before fees. Source: SaxoTrader

What could happen by expiry?

The USD 400 strike is above the current Tesla share price. That means the investor is not agreeing to sell at today’s price, but at a higher price. The strike is therefore not just a number in the platform. It is the price at which the investor must be prepared to sell the shares. That does not mean assignment is unavoidable, but it should be an acceptable outcome before the trade is opened.

The option expires on 15 May 2026, giving the trade 18 days in the example shown.

Below USD 400: The option likely expires worthless and the investor keeps the shares. The investor keeps the premium.
Above USD 400: The shares may be sold at USD 400. The investor keeps the premium but gives up gains above USD 400.
Sharply lower: The option likely expires worthless, but the shares lose value. The premium cushions the fall, but does not protect the position fully.

Using the USD 6.50 example premium, the investor receives about USD 650 before fees if the option is sold and filled at that price. If Tesla stays below USD 400, the investor keeps the premium and still owns the shares.

If Tesla rises above USD 400, the shares may be called away. From the current price of USD 376.30, selling at USD 400 would represent a share price gain of USD 23.70 per share. Add the USD 6.50 option premium, and the total before fees would be USD 30.20 per share, or USD 3,020 for 100 shares.

That can be a strong outcome if the investor was already willing to sell Tesla at USD 400. The drawback is that any gain above USD 400 is no longer captured. If Tesla jumped to USD 430, the covered call seller would still be selling at USD 400 if assigned.

If Tesla falls, the premium helps but does not solve the problem. For example, if Tesla falls from USD 376.30 to USD 350, the shares lose USD 26.30 per share. The USD 6.50 premium reduces the net loss to USD 19.80 per share before fees, but the investor still has a loss.

That is why a covered call should not be described as protection. It is better understood as a small cushion in exchange for capped upside.

The order ticket shows a covered call example: sell 1 Tesla 400 call expiring on 15 May 2026 against 100 Tesla shares already held in the portfolio. In this example, the assumed premium received is USD 6.50, equal to USD 650 for one contract before fees. Source:SaxoTrader

When might this make sense?

A covered call may be worth considering when an investor already owns 100 shares, is comfortable holding the shares, but would also be willing to sell them at a higher price.

In this Tesla example, the key question is simple: would you be comfortable selling 100 Tesla shares at USD 400 before or at 15 May 2026? If the answer is yes, the premium may be useful. If the answer is no, selling this call may still be possible, but the investor should understand that keeping the shares could require an adjustment later.

That makes the covered call less of a prediction and more of a portfolio decision. The investor is not saying Tesla cannot go higher. They are saying that, for this part of the position, USD 400 plus the premium is an acceptable outcome.

Main risks to understand

The first risk is that Tesla falls. The premium reduces the loss, but only by the amount received. A volatile stock can move far more than the option premium.

The second risk is that Tesla rises strongly. If the shares are called away, the investor no longer participates in gains above USD 400. A good outcome can still feel disappointing if the investor did not really want to sell. Investors who want to keep the shares may be able to close the option position before expiry, potentially at a loss, or roll it to a later expiry and higher strike. These adjustments can help avoid assignment, but they also add cost, timing risk, and complexity.

The third risk is execution. Option prices move quickly, and the bid-ask spread matters. The option chain shows a market around USD 6.45–6.55, so the actual premium received may differ from the USD 6.50 assumption if market prices move before the order is filled.

There may also be tax consequences if shares are sold or option premium is received. Those depend on the investor’s location and personal situation.

Bottom line

A covered call can be a practical first options strategy for shareholders who already own 100 shares and want to generate premium from an existing position. In the Tesla example, selling the 15 May 2026 400 call could generate roughly USD 650 before fees using the option-chain midpoint shown.

The trade-off is clear. The investor keeps the premium, but must be prepared to sell Tesla at USD 400 and would not benefit from gains above that level unless the option is adjusted or closed. For buy-and-hold investors, that makes the covered call less about chasing income and more about making a conscious decision: what price would make you willing to sell, and what would you do if the stock rises faster than expected?

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

Educational Resources

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

From reactor dreams to real contracts: the next test for nuclear stocks

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

X-energy’s strong listing shows appetite for nuclear, but only where contracts look credible.
Investors are now separating big stories from business models with clients, permits and cash.
Nuclear, space and artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks face the same test: can promises become profits?

A year ago, almost any stock with a nuclear angle could enjoy a warm glow. The story was simple: artificial intelligence (AI) needs more power, grids are tight, carbon-free electricity is scarce, and nuclear is suddenly fashionable again. Now the market is asking a better question: who actually gets paid?

That is why X-energy’s Nasdaq debut on 24 April 2026 matters. The advanced nuclear company priced its initial public offering (IPO) at USD 23 per share, raised about USD 1.02 billion, and closed at USD 29.20, up 27% from the IPO price. That is a strong start. But the interesting part is not just the share price pop. It is what investors seemed to reward: visible customers, industrial use cases, fuel capability and a long runway linked to power demand.

This is the new phase of the nuclear trade. Investors are still interested in the theme, but the easy “nuclear equals growth” story is no longer enough. The market now wants evidence: credible customers, bankable contracts, realistic timelines, funding visibility and a path from big ambition to actual cash flow.

The reactor story now needs a customer story

X-energy develops small modular reactors (SMRs), smaller nuclear plants designed to be built in modules rather than as one giant site-specific project. In theory, they can be cheaper, faster and easier to repeat than traditional nuclear plants. In practice, the sector still needs to prove that theory at commercial scale.

That is why X-energy’s client list matters. Amazon has invested in the company and is working with it on plans to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity in the United States by 2039. Dow is tied to a proposed project in Seadrift, Texas, where X-energy’s reactors would support industrial power and steam needs. Centrica is also working with X-energy on plans for advanced modular reactors in the United Kingdom.

For investors, these details change the conversation. A company without a customer is selling imagination. A company with large industrial and technology partners is at least selling a route to demand. The difference is not small. It is the difference between a sketch on a napkin and a blueprint with someone’s name on the invoice.

Still, a contract does not remove risk. It only improves the starting point. Nuclear projects require licences, financing, fuel, construction discipline and political patience. That last one is rare in nature, like a low-fee fund with perfect timing.

The market wants proof, not poetry

The same selectivity is visible beyond nuclear. AST SpaceMobile is not a nuclear company, but it is a useful comparison because it sits in the same “future infrastructure” bucket. The company is building a satellite network designed to connect ordinary mobile phones directly from space. That is a powerful idea, especially for remote areas, defence and emergency coverage.

But the market now watches the details closely. AST SpaceMobile reported USD 70.9 million of revenue for 2025 and pointed to large contracted revenue commitments. That helps. Yet recent pressure on the shares shows investors also care about launch execution, satellite deployment, competition and shareholder selling.

That is the pattern. Future infrastructure stocks can still attract capital, but the market is starting to score them like businesses, not science projects. The checklist is becoming clearer: real customers, binding or credible contracts, visible revenue conversion, enough cash to fund the build-out, and a path to profits that does not require permanent investor generosity.

In nuclear, this also explains the uneven moves across the sector. Oklo, NuScale Power, Cameco and other names all sit in different parts of the nuclear value chain. Some are developers. Some are fuel or uranium suppliers. Some have operating assets or more established revenue. Investors are increasingly treating those differences as important, which is healthy. A reactor developer and a uranium producer are not the same business, even if both glow in the same thematic presentation.

Source: Saxo Bank in-house framework. This is not an exhaustive list.

The hard part is turning demand into earnings

The bullish case for nuclear is easy to understand. AI data centres need reliable electricity. Electrification adds more demand. Governments want energy security. Companies want cleaner power. Nuclear sits neatly in that overlap.

The challenge is that demand is not the same as profit. A power buyer may want clean electricity, but only at a price that works. A developer may have a great design, but still face regulatory delays. A project may be strategic, but still run over budget. Nuclear history has a long memory, and not every chapter is bedtime reading.

This is why the best investor framework is not “which nuclear stock is hottest?” It is “which company can move from story to contract, from contract to construction, and from construction to cash flow?”

That sequence matters. Each step reduces risk. Each step also changes the valuation debate. Early-stage companies can move sharply on news because expectations are doing most of the heavy lifting. As companies mature, investors usually demand evidence. Revenue quality, margins, funding needs and customer concentration become more important than the size of the addressable market.

The risks are still very real

The biggest risk is timing. Nuclear projects can take years before revenue becomes meaningful, and delays can stretch balance sheets. Investors should watch regulatory milestones, construction updates and whether customers remain committed when costs change.

The second risk is financing. Companies building reactors, satellites or other hard infrastructure often need a lot of capital before they generate steady cash. If share prices fall, raising new money can become expensive.

The third risk is narrative crowding. When many stocks chase the same theme, the weaker stories can look strong during rallies. In a more selective market, vague announcements may stop working. The market may still enjoy a good story, but it now seems to prefer one with page numbers, signatures and payment terms.

Investor playbook

Track customer quality: large, credible clients matter more than vague memorandums of understanding.
Separate demand from profit: power shortages help, but economics decide shareholder returns.
Watch funding needs: repeated share issuance can dilute investors even when the story improves.
Use milestones: permits, construction starts, delivered revenue and margins are better signals than headlines.

The glow must meet the grid

The nuclear trade is not losing relevance. If anything, the need for reliable power is becoming more important as AI, electrification and energy security reshape the market. But the easy part of the story may be over. Investors are moving from “this sounds big” to “show me the contract, the permit, the customer and the margin”. That is a better market, even if it is less forgiving. X-energy’s IPO shows that capital is still available for strong future-infrastructure stories. The next test is whether those stories can survive contact with engineering, regulation and arithmetic. The atom may power the future, but cash flow will decide the investment case.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Options Brief – Chips surge, Hormuz still shut – 27 April 2026

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:24:00 Z

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record Friday. Intel jumped nearly 24%. And the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The options market is not entirely convinced this is the calm it looks like. Today’s Options Brief covers what the vol picture really says heading into one of the busiest weeks of the year: the Fed decision, Core PCE, and Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all reporting

Options Brief – Chips surge, Hormuz still shut – 27 April 2026

Record highs in equities, oil still elevated, and options pricing that quietly says not everyone is convinced.

US equities pushed to fresh records on Friday, led by a sharp chip-sector rally, while oil stayed elevated as Iran peace talks stalled over the weekend. The options market is sending a more cautious signal beneath the surface: implied volatility remains elevated, downside skew is wide, and the week ahead is packed with binary events. Here is what the options picture looks like heading into this week.

Headline driver

US equities pushed to fresh records on Friday, led by a sharp chip-sector rally, while oil stayed elevated as Iran peace talks stalled over the weekend. For the full macro backdrop, see today’s Saxo Market Quick Take.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: closed at 7,165 (+0.80%), posting its fourth consecutive weekly gain
Nasdaq 100: closed at 27,304 (+1.95%), driven by AI-linked chip names – Intel jumped 23.6%, AMD gained 14.0%, Arm rose 14.8%
Stoxx Europe 600: fell 0.6% to 610.65 on Friday, losing 2.5% for the week as rising oil weighed on energy-importing economies
VIX (the market’s main fear gauge) closed at 18.71 (–3.11%); front-month VIX futures at 20.60 (–1.23%)

Options angle

The VIX closed at 18.71 on Friday – still relatively high for a market sitting at record levels. More telling is the gap between the VIX spot level and front-month VIX futures at 20.60: the options market is quietly pricing in more turbulence ahead, not a clean continuation of the rally. The SKEW index – which measures how much extra investors are paying for protection against sharp drops versus ordinary moves – sits at 139, well above its historical average. Elevated SKEW is a signal that professional money is genuinely concerned about tail risk, even as headline indices look calm.

That concern shows up directly in S&P 500 options pricing. Near-the-money puts (downside protection) are trading at an implied volatility – the market’s expectation of future price swings – of around 24–25%, compared with roughly 21% for equivalent calls. In plain terms: hedges cost more than upside bets right now. For the week ahead, options are implying a move of roughly ±120 points (about 1.7%) in the S&P 500 into Friday’s expiry – a wide range reflecting the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, Core PCE inflation data, and earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all in the same five-day window.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Selling covered calls rather than buying upside. When implied volatility is elevated, option premiums are inflated on both sides of the market. If you already hold shares in a stock reporting earnings this week, selling a covered call – an option that gives someone else the right to buy your shares at a higher price in exchange for a cash payment today – lets you collect that elevated premium as income. It reduces your effective cost if the stock dips, and the risk is simply that your shares get called away if the stock surges well past your strike. It works best when you expect a moderate move rather than a dramatic gap.

Strategy insight – Put spreads over outright puts for downside protection. The gap between put and call implied volatility makes straight put purchases expensive at the moment. A put spread – buying a put option at one strike while simultaneously selling a cheaper put at a lower strike – cuts the cost of that protection considerably. You still benefit if the market falls, just not beyond the lower strike you sold. In an environment where hedges are pricey but the risk of a sharp drop is real, a put spread gives you a more cost-efficient way to stay covered.

Conclusion

Markets are holding a fragile balance: equities at all-time highs, oil elevated on a still-closed Hormuz Strait, and options pricing that quietly signals not everyone expects the calm to last. This week’s Fed decision and concentrated Mag-7 earnings are the two clear catalysts – the kind of setup where implied volatility tends to stay elevated right up until both events pass, then deflate quickly. With that in mind, position sizing and cost of hedging matter more than picking a direction right now.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Option Brief - Iran Ceasefire Rally - 9 April 2026
Options Brief - Wednesday April 8 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

COT update: Energy strength underpins crops as precious metals demand soften

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 21 April 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 21 April 2026.
A wait-and-see week that triggered renewed demand for EUR and CAD, further trimming the gross USD long from a 14-month high reached at the start of April.
Across commodities, positioning turned defensive, with net selling recorded in 15 of the 25 contracts tracked, led by natural gas, gold, silver, sugar, and hogs.
Buying was concentrated in copper, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, as second-round impacts from the Strait of Hormuz blockade continued to spread to the agriculture sector.

Forex:

The latest report, covering the week to 21 April, captured a wait-and-see period as traders and investors awaited news from the Middle East, where a ceasefire was observed while Iran and the US both maintained a blockage at sea seriously limiting flows of energy, metals and other key commodities from the Persian Gulf. While the dollar traded a tad firmer, speculators in the FX market sold the USD for a second week. Overall, the gross dollar long against eight IMM futures contracts was reduced by 20% to USD 11.7 billion from a 14-month high at the beginning of April.

Flows were mixed but mostly geared towards net dollar selling led by strong demand for a second week of the EUR and short-covering in CAD as well as fresh longs in MXN while the most notable sales were seen of the JPY, lifting the net short to a 21-month high. Overall, positioning across the included currencies remains elevated but mixed, with net longs in EUR (USD 6.1bn equivalent), AUD (USD 4.6bn), and MXN (USD 1.9bn) more than offset by net shorts across the remaining currencies, led by JPY (USD 7.4bn), CHF (USD 5.4bn), and GBP (USD 4.4bn).

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and the Dollar Index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

The latest COT reporting week captured a period where traders continued to look for - while maintaining hope for - a still elusive breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations aimed at ending a month-long war that has tightened global supplies of key commodities, from crude oil and refined fuels to gas, petrochemicals, several metals, and fertilizers. The conflict has underpinned not only energy prices but also several agricultural commodities through second-round impacts linked to higher input costs and supply chain disruptions.

During the reporting week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index delivered a relatively muted return of 0.7%, with gains in energy and grains partly offset by losses across precious metals, softs, and livestock. Across the 25 major futures contracts we track, net selling was recorded in 15, led by natural gas, gold, silver, sugar, and hogs, while buying was concentrated in copper, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.

Key takeaways:

Energy: Positioning changes across WTI, Brent, and refined products were relatively limited, with an elevated level of uncertainty and high volatility dampening risk appetite from leveraged funds. The most notable shifts were an increase in Brent gross shorts and a reduction in ICE WTI equivalent longs. Overall, the combined crude oil net long - which reached a four-year high last month - has since been reduced by 13% to 481k contracts.

Metals: Precious metals saw renewed selling, led by a 20% reduction in the silver net long, while the gold long hovered just above a two-year low, highlighting relatively light managed money positioning amid a lack of clear directional signals. Gold continues to trade within a USD 200 range, gravitating around USD 4,750. Copper, meanwhile, attracted buyers for a third consecutive week as its strong rebound from the early March slump drew fresh demand, although that momentum may be challenged after several failed attempts to break resistance around USD 6.15.

Agriculture: Buying continued across the three major crops, led by soybeans and corn. Softs were mixed, with a one-third reduction in the sugar long and a doubling of the cotton long standing out, while all three major livestock contracts recorded net selling.

Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 21 April, 2026

Managed money positions in key energy futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed Money positions in key metal futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money positions in key agriculture - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Related articles/content
24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut 22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists 20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026 14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation 13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026 10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge 9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight 8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds 7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead 7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion 7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026 1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct 31 March 2026: Chocolate relief in a troubled world cocoa cools as Easter meets macro gloom 30 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 24 March 2026 27 March 2026: Commodities Weekly Energy shock broadens as second-round inflation lifts metals and agriculture 26 March 2026: Commodity index funds why energy exposure and roll yield drive divergence 24 March 2026: What is the gold-crude ratio telling us 24 March 2026: From oil shock to food shock Gulf fertilizer disruption raises crop risks 23 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 17 March 2026 23 March 2026: Precious metals hit by liquidity shock as war forces broad repricing 20 March 2026: Commodities weekly From energy shock to stagflation risk 18 March 2026: Gold slips as macro headwinds intensify and crowded longs unwind 18 March 2026: Crude prices mask deeper oil market stress 16 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 March 2026 13 March 2026: Gold pauses above USD 5000 as energy shock clouds the global outlook 11 March 2026: Middle East conflict puts worlds most critical energy chokepoint in focus 19 Feb 2026: Hormuz risk premium returns as military buildup near Iran lifts crude prices 17 Feb 2026: Metals update Lunar New Year lull exposes reliance on Asian demand 16 Feb 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 Feb 2026 13 Feb 2026: Commodities weekly AI disruption fears rattle equities while commodities retain leadership 11 Feb 2026: Agriculture grains and livestock gains offset softs slump 9 Feb 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 3 February 2026 6 Feb 2026: Commodities weekly Liquidity stress and deleveraging weigh on sentiment 5 Feb 2026: Silver remains unsettled as volatility and cross-market risks collide 2 Feb 2026: Silver When a record rally turns into a record rout 2 Feb 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 27 January 2026 30 Jan 2026: Commodities weekly Metals pull back after a volatile record-setting month for commodities 28 Jan 2026: Golds orderly rally meets silvers chaos as the dollar comes under pressure 26 Jan 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 20 January 2026 23 Jan 2026: Commodities weekly: Hard assets, hard weather: metals lead, gas shocks, cocoa cracks 22 Jan 2026: Winter shock links gas markets worldwide as US freeze-offs meet global LNG competition 19 Jan 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 January 2026 19 Jan 2026: Trumps tariff threats over Greenland push hard assets back to centre stage 14 Jan 2026: Silver at USD 90 when hard-asset demand meets momentum 12 Jan 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 January 2026 9 Jan 2026: Commodities weekly Geopolitics and index rebalance in focus as 2026 begins 8 Jan 2026: Gold and silver face a test of strength as annual index rebalancing begins 6 Jan 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 30 Dec 2025 6 Jan 2026: Gold silver and platinum regain momentum as 2026 opens with familiar risks and new tensions 5 Jan 2026: Oil markets digest Venezuela shock disruption now optionality later 2 Jan 2026: What the steepest US yield curve since 2021 signals as 2026 begins Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut
22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists
20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026
14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation
13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026
10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge
9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight
8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds
7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead
7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion
7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026
1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct
31 March 2026: Chocolate relief in a troubled world cocoa cools as Easter meets macro gloom
30 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 24 March 2026
27 March 2026: Commodities Weekly Energy shock broadens as second-round inflation lifts metals and agriculture
26 March 2026: Commodity index funds why energy exposure and roll yield drive divergence
24 March 2026: What is the gold-crude ratio telling us
24 March 2026: From oil shock to food shock Gulf fertilizer disruption raises crop risks
23 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 17 March 2026
23 March 2026: Precious metals hit by liquidity shock as war forces broad repricing
20 March 2026: Commodities weekly From energy shock to stagflation risk
18 March 2026: Gold slips as macro headwinds intensify and crowded longs unwind
18 March 2026: Crude prices mask deeper oil market stress
16 March 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 March 2026
13 March 2026: Gold pauses above USD 5000 as energy shock clouds the global outlook
11 March 2026: Middle East conflict puts worlds most critical energy chokepoint in focus
19 Feb 2026: Hormuz risk premium returns as military buildup near Iran lifts crude prices
17 Feb 2026: Metals update Lunar New Year lull exposes reliance on Asian demand
16 Feb 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 Feb 2026
13 Feb 2026: Commodities weekly AI disruption fears rattle equities while commodities retain leadership
11 Feb 2026: Agriculture grains and livestock gains offset softs slump
9 Feb 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 3 February 2026
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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) Forex COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

Asia in the AI age: Why investors may need to rethink tech exposure beyond the US

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key points:

AI is becoming a supply-chain story, not just a US mega-cap story. The next phase of the AI buildout depends on the physical infrastructure behind it: chips, memory, advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment, precision manufacturing, power and data centres.
Asia sits across the key hardware bottlenecks. Taiwan brings foundry and chip manufacturing strength, South Korea leads in memory and storage, Japan provides semiconductor equipment and precision technology, China is building a self-reliant AI infrastructure stack, and Singapore offers exposure to electronics services, connectivity and data-centre infrastructure.
The opportunity comes with real risks. Asia’s AI supply-chain role is compelling, but it is also exposed to geopolitics, export controls, memory cyclicality, currency swings, energy costs and the possibility that AI capex becomes more selective after a strong investment cycle.

The new Asia trade: less about cheap markets, more about AI scarcity

Asian stocks cannot escape short-term volatility from Middle East-related headlines. Higher oil prices, shipping disruption risks and geopolitical shocks still matter, especially for energy-importing economies. But for now, the bigger force in markets appears to be FOMO around AI, not war angst.

The reason is simple: AI is no longer just a US megacap software story. It is increasingly a hardware, memory, manufacturing and infrastructure story — and that brings Asia directly into the centre of investor portfolios.

The clearest signal is coming from North Asia’s AI hardware triangle. Taiwan brings the foundry layer, with export orders surging 65.9% year-on-year in March to a record USD 91.12 billion, the fastest pace in more than 16 years, driven by demand for AI and technology products. South Korea brings the memory layer, where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix sit at the centre of the high-bandwidth memory supply chain powering AI accelerators. Japan brings the precision layer, from semiconductor equipment and advanced materials to robotics, factory automation and electronic components.

That is not a soft signal. It is a reminder that every new AI model, data centre and cloud upgrade needs physical infrastructure behind it. The market has noticed too: foreign flows have been gravitating toward the region’s “tech haves,” especially Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, as investors look beyond the US software layer and toward the hardware backbone of AI.

In other words, Asia is no longer just a region investors buy when global growth is improving. It is becoming a supply-chain exposure to the AI capex cycle.

Asia's AI playbook: Beyond the Mag 7

For investors, the supply chain matters because AI does not scale on software alone. Every model upgrade, cloud deployment and enterprise AI rollout requires more compute, more memory, more advanced packaging, more power and more precision manufacturing. The companies and markets that provide these inputs may not always own the customer relationship, but they often control the bottlenecks that determine how quickly AI can be built and deployed.

That is why the AI trade is broadening beyond the US. The US remains dominant in chip design, cloud platforms, software and AI applications. But the physical layer of AI is deeply rooted in Asia. Taiwan is central to advanced foundry capacity. South Korea is critical in memory, especially high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators. Japan is essential in semiconductor equipment, advanced materials, electronic components and factory automation. China is building a more self-reliant AI infrastructure stack, while Singapore offers exposure to electronics services, connectivity, data centres and precision engineering.

This creates a different way to think about AI exposure. Investors who only own the US-facing layer may have exposure to the companies monetising AI, but less exposure to the companies enabling AI capacity to expand. In an AI cycle increasingly defined by scarcity — of chips, memory, equipment, energy and skilled manufacturing capacity — the supply chain becomes more than a back-office detail. It becomes part of the investment case.

The key is to think in countries and themes, not just individual stocks.

Taiwan: foundry and chip manufacturing

Taiwan is the most direct expression of Asia’s advanced chip manufacturing role. It sits at the centre of the global foundry ecosystem, with exposure to wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, testing and outsourced semiconductor assembly.

The investment case is tied to the idea that AI demand will continue to require more advanced chips and more complex manufacturing capacity. As chips become more powerful, the value does not sit only in design. It also sits in the ability to manufacture at scale, package chips efficiently and manage increasingly complex supply chains.

The main risk is concentration. Taiwan exposure can quickly become heavily dependent on semiconductors and a small number of dominant companies. It also carries geopolitical sensitivity and export-control risk.

Korea: memory and storage

Korea’s AI role is less about owning the front-end AI application and more about supplying the memory backbone that allows AI systems to function. AI infrastructure is increasingly constrained not just by GPUs, but by high-bandwidth memory, DRAM and NAND.

This makes Korea one of the most important markets for investors watching the AI hardware cycle. If AI models continue to become larger, faster and more data-intensive, the demand for memory bandwidth should remain a critical part of the supply chain.

The key risk is cyclicality. Memory markets can move from shortage to oversupply quickly. Strong AI-related demand may support high-end memory such as HBM, but broader DRAM and NAND cycles can still be volatile.

Japan: semiconductor equipment and precision technology

Japan is the quieter but highly important AI infrastructure market. It is less about hyperscale AI apps and more about the machinery, materials and precision tools needed to manufacture advanced chips.

Japan brings exposure to semiconductor equipment, testing tools, factory automation, precision machinery, electronic components, sensors, power systems and advanced materials. These are not always the most visible parts of the AI story, but they are essential to scaling chip production and improving manufacturing yields.

This makes Japan a different kind of AI play: less about owning the headline chip winner, and more about owning the industrial base that helps the AI supply chain scale.

The risk is that Japan’s AI exposure is more indirect and can be affected by the broader industrial cycle, yen volatility and capex spending trends across global semiconductor manufacturers.

China: AI infrastructure backbone

China’s AI story is not only about chatbots, cloud platforms or consumer apps. It is also about the physical backbone needed to build a more self-reliant AI ecosystem — domestic chips, foundries, servers, power systems, batteries, cooling, industrial automation and data-centre infrastructure.

The long-term theme is strategic self-sufficiency. Export controls and geopolitical tensions have made China’s AI buildout more focused on domestic substitutes, local supply chains and infrastructure independence. That creates opportunities across hardware, cloud, internet platforms, optical fibre, batteries and industrial technology.

The risks are also different. China exposure carries policy uncertainty, US-China restrictions, domestic demand weakness, regulatory risk and potential volatility around technology sanctions.

Singapore: AI infrastructure and precision tech

Singapore’s AI exposure is not about frontier AI models. It is more about the infrastructure behind the theme: semiconductor services, precision engineering, electronics manufacturing, connectivity, data centres and digital infrastructure.

This makes Singapore a more defensive and infrastructure-linked way to think about the AI supply chain. It may not offer the same direct exposure as Taiwan’s foundry ecosystem or Korea’s memory leadership, but it can capture parts of the regional manufacturing and infrastructure network that support AI deployment.

Singapore also matters because it is a regional hub for capital, data, logistics and corporate activity. As AI demand increases the need for secure connectivity, reliable infrastructure and advanced electronics services, Singapore-listed names can provide selective exposure beyond the usual banks and REITs narrative.

The risk is that Singapore’s AI exposure is often indirect and company-specific. Investors should distinguish between genuine AI supply-chain exposure and broader market exposure that may be driven more by banks, property or domestic macro factors.

Why this matters for portfolios

For investors, Asia exposure can serve three roles in an AI-age portfolio.

First, it can provide supply-chain diversification. Many investors already own US tech leaders, but the companies enabling those leaders often sit in Asia. Owning only the US-facing layer of AI may miss important parts of the value chain.

Second, Asia can offer currency and regional diversification. Foreign inflows into Taiwan and South Korea can support not just equities, but also regional currencies when the AI cycle is strong. That said, this can reverse quickly when risk appetite fades or oil prices spike.

Third, Asia can help investors move from a broad AI narrative to a more granular one. Instead of simply owning “AI,” investors can think in layers: chips, memory, equipment, power, cooling, data centres, software and applications.

That is where the opportunity, and the risk, lies.

The risks investors should not ignore

The AI-Asia story is compelling, but it is not risk-free.

1. Geopolitical risk remains central. Taiwan is strategically important but geopolitically sensitive. Investors should not treat the valuation premium as purely about earnings growth.

2. Oil shocks can hurt Asia. Many Asian economies are energy importers. Middle East-related disruptions can pressure inflation, currencies and margins.

3. Concentration risk is rising. Taiwan exposure often means heavy TSMC exposure. Korea exposure often means Samsung and SK Hynix. Thematic ETFs can look diversified but still rely on a few names.

4. AI capex could disappoint. If cloud companies slow spending, delay data-centre projects or face margin pressure, the hardware supply chain can reprice quickly.

5. Memory remains cyclical. HBM demand is strong, but traditional memory markets have a history of boom-bust cycles.

6. Currency moves matter. JPY, KRW and TWD movements can amplify or reduce returns for foreign investors.

What investors should watch next

Investors looking at Asia in the AI age should watch a broader set of signals, because this is no longer just a single-stock or single-country story:

AI capex guidance from US megacap tech over the next few quarters. This will help confirm whether cloud, model and data-centre spending remains strong enough to support Asia’s hardware supply chain.
Guidance from Asia’s key AI hardware players. TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Disco and other regional leaders can provide read-throughs on chips, memory, equipment demand and order visibility.
Memory pricing and HBM supply trends. These are crucial for assessing whether Korea’s AI memory cycle remains supported, or whether parts of the market are moving toward oversupply risk.
Semiconductor equipment orders and capex plans. This will show whether chipmakers are still expanding capacity, which matters for Japan’s precision equipment and materials ecosystem.
Foreign flows into Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Continued inflows would suggest global investors are still chasing Asia’s AI hardware leaders; a reversal could signal profit-taking or concern that expectations have moved too far.
China’s policy push toward AI self-reliance. Export controls, domestic chip ambitions and government support for strategic technology will remain important drivers for China’s AI infrastructure story.
Singapore’s data-centre, connectivity and precision-tech activity. These signals can help investors assess whether Singapore’s AI exposure is broadening beyond the usual banks and REITs narrative.
Oil prices, energy costs and Middle East headlines. AI is highly energy-intensive, and higher power costs can slow the buildout if they make data-centre economics less attractive or force governments to ration grid capacity. For Asia, the risk is twofold: higher oil and gas prices can pressure margins and currencies in energy-importing economies, while rising electricity demand can make power availability a bigger constraint for AI infrastructure. That does not break the AI story, but it can make the capex cycle more selective and raise the premium on markets and companies with reliable, scalable energy access.

Bottom line

Asia exposure is becoming harder to ignore in AI-age portfolios.

The US may still own much of the AI software narrative. But Asia owns a large part of the physical AI supply chain — chips, memory, equipment, components, automation and infrastructure.

That means investors may need to rethink Asia not as a generic emerging-market allocation, but as a more targeted exposure to the infrastructure behind AI. The opportunity is real, but so are the risks: concentration, geopolitics, oil shocks, valuation and the possibility that AI capex expectations have moved too far, too fast.

In this market, the better question may not be whether investors should chase AI. It is whether their AI exposure is too narrow.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme Category - Equities Theme - Artificial intelligence Theme - Robotics and automation Theme - Digitalization Theme - Emerging market growth Asia Asia-Pacific Themes South Korea Taiwan Taiwan Semiconductor Japan Singapore

Market Quick Take - 27 April 2026

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 06:22:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 27 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US chips led gains, Europe lagged on oil pressure, while Asia split between AI enthusiasm and energy-importer stress.
Volatility: VIX near 19, Fed and earnings in focus, oil/geopolitical risk
Digital Assets: BTC steady, ETH softer, IBIT inflows, ETHA mixed
Fixed Income: Global yields edge higher with crude oil prices
Currencies: USD soft as global risk sentiment remains strong despite rising oil prices
Commodities: Oil grinds higher, gold stuck in neutral as US drought lifts wheat
Macro events: Bank of Japan meeting (early Tue.)

Macro headlines

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting starting Tuesday, as energy prices remain elevated and supply chains are disrupted due to the Middle East war. The meeting will be Chairman Jerome Powell's last at the helm of the institution as his term ends mid-May. A new monetary policy statement and Powell press conference are up on Wednesday.
Friday, the US Department of Justice dropped its case against Fed Chair Powell, which had accused him of making false or misleading statements to Congress about the costs and other details related to the renovation of Federal Reserve headquarters. The dropping of this suit will likely accelerate the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, as one Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, Thom Tillis, had vowed not to vote for Warsh until the case against Powell had been dropped, as he saw it as entirely politically motivated.
Peace talks between the US and Iran stalled over the weekend after President Donald Trump cancelled a planned trip by his top envoys to Pakistan. Iran, while maintaining it will not negotiate under threat, has reportedly presented the US with a new proposal that could pave the way for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear negotiations deferred to a later stage to sidestep internal divisions within the Iranian leadership. Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Iran later today.
U.S. year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in April 2026 from 3.8% in March, just below the 4.8% preliminary reading, according to the University of Michigan survey. The five-year outlook edged up to 3.5%, the highest in six months, from a 3.4% preliminary estimate and 3.2% in March.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.8 in April 2026 from 47.6 but remains at a record low amid the Iran conflict and related price pressures. Inflation expectations rose sharply, with the one-year outlook at 4.7% (from 3.8%) and the long-term outlook at 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany May GfK Consumer Confidence
1430 – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
2330 – Japan Mar Jobless Rate
0230-0400 - Bank of Japan meeting announcement, followed by press conference

Earnings this week

Monday: Verizon, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics
Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9% to a record close, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8% to another record and posted its fourth straight weekly advance. The Dow slipped 0.2%, showing how narrow the rally still was, with semiconductors doing most of the heavy lifting. Intel jumped 23.6% after strong results and better-than-expected guidance, while AMD rose almost 14.0% and Arm gained 14.8% as investors warmed again to AI and data-centre demand. Procter & Gamble added 2.5% after beating earnings estimates, though its warning on oil-related costs reminded investors that expensive energy has a long invoice.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6% on Friday to 610.65 and lost 2.5% for the week, ending four straight weekly gains as Brent crude moved above USD 105 a barrel. The region’s earlier calm view of the Iran conflict started to fade, with investors focusing on Europe’s weaker position as a large energy importer. Energy names held up better on higher oil prices, while airlines, industrials and other energy-sensitive shares came under pressure. Markets now watch whether oil stays a sector story or becomes a broader margin problem.
Asia: Asian equities were split, with the Nikkei opening 0.3% higher at 59,880.71 and South Korea’s Kospi opening 0.9% higher at 6,533.60, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7% last week to 25,978.07. North Asia continued to follow the AI and chip trade, with SK Hynix rising more than 7.0% to a record and Samsung Electronics gaining 2.5% after Intel’s strong outlook supported confidence in AI server demand. South and Southeast Asia looked less cheerful, as higher oil prices strained India, Indonesia and the Philippines. Same planet, different oil bill.

Volatility

Volatility eased slightly into the end of last week, with the VIX closing at 18.71 (-3.1%), but it remains elevated enough to signal that investors are still cautious despite equities pushing higher. The focus this week shifts firmly to macro and policy risk, with the Fed decision on Wednesday, inflation data (Core PCE), and a heavy earnings calendar led by major tech names all likely to drive sentiment. Geopolitics and oil prices remain an underlying risk, especially with ongoing tensions around Iran and supply concerns.
Based on current SPX options pricing, markets are implying an expected move of roughly ±120 points (≈1.68%) into Friday’s expiry, suggesting a potentially volatile week ahead.
For today’s expiry, the options chain continues to show downside skew, with near-the-money put implied volatility around 24–25% versus ~21% for calls, meaning investors are still paying up for protection rather than upside exposure.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are starting the week on a softer but stable footing, with Bitcoin around $77,900 (-1.0%) and Ethereum near $2,330 (-1.6%), reflecting a pause rather than a reversal in recent strength. Broader alt-coins are mixed, with Solana near $86 (-0.8%) and XRP around $1.42 (-0.6%), pointing to a market that is holding gains but lacking strong momentum.
Institutional flows remain the key driver: IBIT is holding steady near $44, continuing to benefit from sustained investor interest and growing derivatives activity, while ETHA trades near $17.5, with flows more mixed and less consistent.
On the derivatives side, recent options flow in crypto-linked equities (such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy) still shows a bullish bias, although hedging activity in miners suggests investors are not fully confident. The overall message is constructive but selective: institutional demand is still there, but it is not broad-based enough to drive a strong breakout yet.

Fixed Income

US treasuries rallied Friday as crude oil prices fell, sending the benchmark 2-year treasury yield more than four basis points lower to close the day and week just below 3.78%, yields backed up in early trading Monday as crude oil prices opened the week higher – with the 2-year yield pushing toward 3.80% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield two basis points above its Friday close, trading 4.32%.
Japan’s short-dated government bond yields are steady ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting Tuesday, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield near 1.36% and the market looking for guidance from the BoJ on its policy intentions, with the market pricing slightly better than even odds that the bank will hike the rate at its mid-June meeting. At the longer end of the curve, the recent rise in crude oil prices seems is driving yields back toward cycle highs. The benchmark 10-year JGB yields rose nearly three basis points Monday to just shy of 2.47% near the highest daily close since 1999.

Commodities

Oil continues to grind higher as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, extending disruptions across the Middle East that continue to tighten the availability of critical commodities—from crude, fuel and gas to metals, fertilizers and petrochemicals. Brent crude trades at a three-week high as efforts to revive peace talks have stalled, with an Iranian proposal reportedly calling for nuclear negotiations to be postponed to a later stage. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average USD 90 in the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of USD 80, and above the current traded average of around USD 88.
Gold remains stuck in neutral within a broad USD 200 range around USD 4,750, with most intraday price action dictated by energy prices and the ebb and flow of headlines from the White House and the Middle East. The FOMC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, while the path for Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair appears to have opened after an investigation into cost overruns at the Federal Reserve was dropped.
Chicago wheat futures extended gains as worsening drought across several US growing states threatens crop output in the key Great Plains region, where dry weather is expected to persist through spring after below-normal rainfall already damaged some crops. Prices are also drawing support from a Middle East war premium, with disruptions to fertilizer and energy flows raising production costs for key agricultural crops.

Currencies

The US dollar weakened slightly on Friday and again on Monday after a modest gap higher on the open. EURUSD trades near 1.1725 and USDJPY near 159.30 ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting early Tuesday. There seems littles reactivity in the dollar to the news of the clearing of the DoJ case against Fed Chair Powell, which will likely quickly pave the way for the approval of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. As well, the correlation of the US dollar with crude oil price has weakened, as local highs in crude oil prices on the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are not driving USD strength, perhaps as risk sentiment more broadly has ignored this development as well.
EURGBP trades at multi-week lows below 0.8665 ahead of ECB and Bank of England meetings this Thursday, likely as the 2-year EU-UK yield spread has fallen as well on the turnaround in forward BoE policy expectations since the war in Iran drove a massive rise in energy prices. Both the ECB and Bank of England are seen holding the policy rate steady this week, but likely to hike rates about fifty basis points this year on inflation concerns. The EURGBP range lows of note since July of last year extend to near 0.8600.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Fed meeting preview: Powell’s last word – no cut, but plenty of signals

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 03:30:00 Z

Key points:

A hold is widely expected, but the tone matters more than the rate decision. In our view, Powell is likely to defend patience and avoid giving markets a clean signal on rate cuts.
Energy inflation is the swing factor. If the Fed treats higher oil prices as persistent rather than temporary, rate-cut hopes could be pushed further out.
The Warsh transition could add a new layer of uncertainty. Our view is that markets may try to front-run a more dovish Fed under Kevin Warsh, but the full FOMC, not the chair alone, decides policy.

The rate decision itself may be the least interesting part of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets have fully priced in a hold at 3.50–3.75%, so the real signal will come from the statement language, Powell’s tone, and the political transition unfolding in the background.

For investors, this is not just another FOMC meeting. It is a policy decision landing at the intersection of oil-driven inflation, slowing growth, a possible Fed leadership handover, and a heavy Big Tech earnings calendar. That mix can keep markets supported, but it also raises the risk of sharp moves if Powell sounds more hawkish than investors are prepared for.

The setup: three things colliding at once

Wednesday is not a normal policy meeting. Three distinct forces are converging simultaneously, each with market implications of its own.

A stagflation dilemma with no clean answer

The Fed is communicating in an environment where headline inflation has re-accelerated, while underlying economic momentum is softening. March CPI came in at 3.3%, a two-year high, driven largely by the Iran conflict and the resulting rise in energy prices. At the same time, Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to just 0.5% on its third estimate.

That is the classic stagflation squeeze: rising prices, slowing growth, and a central bank with no obvious move.

The key question is whether the Fed views the energy-driven inflation overshoot as temporary — and therefore something it can look through — or as a reason to hold rates higher for longer into H2 2026.

No dot plot, so every word counts twice

April is not a projections meeting. There will be no updated Summary of Economic Projections and no fresh dot plot to anchor rate expectations.

That makes the statement unusually important. When the Fed cannot communicate through numbers, it communicates through word choice. Markets will parse any changes in how the Fed describes inflation, growth, labor-market risks and the balance of risks.

A small change in language could do the work of a much bigger policy signal.

The transition risk

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair on the same afternoon. Powell will hold his press conference knowing that his potential replacement is being confirmed in parallel.

He is likely to be asked directly about Fed independence, the leadership transition, and whether he plans to remain as a Governor on the Board until 2028. His answers may matter almost as much as his comments on inflation.

The market is not just watching the Fed’s reaction function. It is watching whether the institution still looks steady through the handover.

What to expect from the Fed

Our base case is a hawkish hold, not because the Fed wants to tighten further, but because Powell has little incentive, in our view, to sound relaxed while oil prices are high and inflation is above target.

Powell is likely to say three things:

First, the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode.

Powell will likely acknowledge that the dual mandate has become harder. Inflation risks have risen because of energy, while growth risks have also increased. That argues for patience rather than a pre-commitment to cuts.

Second, he will resist endorsing a cut timeline.

Markets are loosely pricing one or two cuts in H2 2026, and some expect a quicker move once the new chair takes over. Powell is unlikely to validate that view. His final act as chair is more likely to be a defense of institutional discipline: policy should be driven by data, not by politics or leadership change.

Third, he will defend Fed independence without turning political.

Powell is unlikely to attack Warsh or the White House directly. But he will probably use careful language to reinforce central-bank independence and policy continuity. Fixed-income markets will be watching for any sign that the transition could compromise institutional credibility.

The Warsh factor

In our view, the Warsh transition matters because markets may see him as more open to rate cuts than Powell. That could shape expectations even before policy actually changes.

But there is an important constraint: the Fed chair does not vote alone. Warsh would need to convince the broader FOMC. With energy prices elevated and inflation still above target, several regional Fed presidents may resist a rapid pivot.

The new chair controls the agenda, the communication tone, and the press conference framing. That matters enormously for forward guidance. But he cannot unilaterally move rates.

What could change after May 15

If markets believe Warsh will steer the Fed in a more dovish direction, the front-running could show up in:

A steeper yield curve, with the short end rallying more than the long end.
A weaker dollar, especially if markets price a faster easing cycle.
Higher equity risk appetite, particularly in rate-sensitive areas such as real estate, utilities, small caps and unprofitable growth.
More support for gold, if lower real yields and institutional uncertainty combine.

The risk is that markets get too far ahead of the actual FOMC. If inflation remains sticky or oil stays above $100, the new chair may find it harder to deliver the cuts markets want.

Market reaction scenarios

Scenario 1: Hawkish hold — our base case

In our base case, the Fed keeps rates unchanged and Powell stresses uncertainty, inflation persistence and the need for patience.

Likely market reaction:

US dollar: supported, especially versus low-yielders and oil-importer currencies.
Treasury yields: front-end yields remain firm; the 10-year could stay near the upper end of the recent range.
Equities: quality growth may hold up if earnings remain strong, but high-duration and speculative pockets could wobble.
Gold: choppy; geopolitical demand helps, but higher real yields cap upside.

Scenario 2: Dovish hold

The Fed keeps rates unchanged, but Powell gives more weight to slowing growth and avoids leaning too hard against future cuts.

Likely market reaction:

US dollar: softer, especially if markets bring forward expectations for rate cuts.
Treasury yields: front-end yields decline; the curve may steepen if the short end rallies more than the long end.
Equities: growth stocks, small caps, REITs and utilities could catch a bid as discount-rate pressure eases.
Gold: supported by lower real yields and a softer dollar.

Scenario 3: Re-tightening scare

The Fed keeps rates unchanged, but Powell sounds sufficiently concerned about inflation persistence that markets begin to question whether the next move is still clearly a cut. This would go beyond a standard hawkish hold and would challenge the assumption that policy easing is only delayed, not derailed.

Likely market reaction:

US dollar: strengthens, particularly against low-yielders and oil-importer currencies.
Treasury yields: short-end yields rise more sharply as markets price out cuts; rates volatility could increase.
Equities: multiples compress, with the most pressure on rate-sensitive and high-duration areas; credit spreads could widen if markets read the message as a renewed growth-and-liquidity risk.
Gold: may initially come under pressure from higher real yields, although geopolitical risk could limit the downside.

Scenario 4: Transition-volatility event

In our view, this is a lower-probability but important scenario. Powell gives answers on the transition that raise questions about institutional continuity or Fed independence.

Likely market reaction:

US dollar: two-way reaction; supported by risk aversion, but pressured if markets see the transition as dovish or credibility-negative.
Treasury yields: rates volatility rises; curve moves could become less predictable if markets debate policy independence and future easing.
Equities: may initially struggle as risk premia rise, especially in more crowded or valuation-sensitive parts of the market.
Gold: benefits from institutional uncertainty and any renewed demand for hedges.

How investors can think about positioning

This is not a meeting that lends itself to a binary portfolio call. It is better approached as a risk-management event: a moment to review exposures, assess concentration, and consider whether portfolios are prepared for both a hawkish Fed and a dovish transition narrative.

Review the quality of equity exposure

The equity market still has support from earnings momentum and the AI cycle. But the Fed meeting could raise the hurdle for expensive, long-duration assets.

Investors may want to consider reviewing whether equity exposure is overly concentrated in speculative growth or crowded momentum trades, and whether portfolios include companies with stronger balance sheets, more visible earnings and better cash-flow resilience.

Use volatility as a review point, not a trigger to chase

If markets rally on a dovish interpretation, it may be useful to reassess whether valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals in some parts of the portfolio.

If markets sell off on a hawkish tone, one useful framework is to distinguish between assets being punished mainly by duration pressure and those facing a genuine earnings deterioration. That distinction may matter more than the first-day price move.

Think in terms of portfolio roles, not prescriptions

A Fed meeting in a stagflation-lite environment is a reminder that diversification by risk driver can matter as much as diversification by asset class.

For information purposes, examples of areas investors often monitor in this type of environment include:

Growth exposure linked to AI and earnings resilience.
Defensive sectors such as healthcare, staples and utilities, which may be less sensitive to the economic cycle.
Gold and real assets as potential hedges against geopolitical and inflation risks.
Short-duration bonds or cash-like instruments that may provide flexibility while the Fed remains patient.

These are examples of portfolio roles rather than suggested allocations. Read more on how the new portfolio playbook consists of these four buckets. The relevance of each area will depend on risk tolerance, time horizon and existing portfolio exposures.

Watch the dollar as a key cross-asset signal

In our view, a hawkish hold and oil shock can give the dollar a near-term bid. But the medium-term dollar story may still weaken if markets begin pricing a more dovish Fed under Warsh, wider fiscal concerns, or a later easing cycle.

That means the tactical and structural dollar views may diverge: stronger near term, more vulnerable later.

Sequence matters: Fed first, Big Tech next

The Fed decision arrives before major technology earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft after the close. By Thursday morning, markets will be digesting Powell’s policy signal and Big Tech’s AI capex, cloud demand, margins and guidance at the same time.

That makes Wednesday a potential volatility cluster, not a single-event risk.

Risks to the view

Oil falls sharply or ceasefire talks improve.
If energy risk fades quickly, the Fed may have more room to look through the inflation spike, supporting duration and risk assets.

Powell is more dovish than expected.
If he emphasizes growth risks and avoids pushing back on cut pricing, markets could rally across equities, gold and EM.

Inflation proves stickier than expected.
If oil-driven inflation feeds into broader price pressures, the Fed may be forced to keep rates higher for longer than markets expect.

Warsh does not deliver the dovish pivot markets price in.
Markets may front-run a faster easing cycle, but the broader FOMC could constrain any sharp policy shift.

Big Tech earnings disappoint.
Even a market-friendly Fed may not be enough if AI capex, cloud growth or margins disappoint in the same week.

Fed independence becomes a market issue.
Any sign that the leadership transition is affecting policy credibility could lift volatility across rates, FX and gold.

Bottom line

Our view is that this Fed meeting is unlikely to deliver a policy surprise, but it could reset the market’s comfort level with rate cuts.

For investors, the main takeaway is to avoid treating the meeting as a one-way macro bet. The meeting can be used as a prompt to review portfolio resilience: where duration risk sits, how much exposure depends on a softer Fed, whether cash-flow visibility is sufficiently represented, and whether any existing hedges still serve their intended purpose.

Wednesday is not just a policy meeting. It is the close of a chapter in central bank history, and the opening of one with considerably more uncertainty attached to it.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Macro Artificial Intelligence Equities Federal Reserve Commodities Forex Government Bonds Bonds

SaaSpocalypse NOW. Also, massive earnings and central bank week ahead.

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 13:53:00 Z

The busiest of earnings calendars next week and oh - geopolitics still...

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

The FX Trader piece from yours truly today - assessing USD status, interesting CHF techs, five central bank meetings next week, current trend readings, and more.

Before you get into algorithmic trading, realize what you are up against!
A WSJ article covers the privately held XTK operation, which is operating a super-computer running 25,000 Nvidia chips, trading USD 250 billion in assets daily, making a mint for its now multi-billionaire founder. And they are now doubling down and building an even larger setup. Some interesting tidbits in this article, as XTK is not a high-frequency trading outfit, something founder Alex Gerko disparages. Rather, the company employs deep learning to predict price movements on multiple time frames.

Chokepoints - a way to understand Economic Wars, including the Iran War, the USD system, rare earth minerals and even historical wars. Based on a recommendation from a good friend - I have started listening to the audio book of Chokepoints by Edward Fishman. There is also a Foreign Affairs article on “economic wars” by the same author.

What horrible forward risks are already baked even if Hormuz Strait fully opens tomorrow?
I already restacked this link, but mentioning it once again here: I sincerely hope he is wrong about the scale of the risk, but it is worth considering: Craig Tindale raises the alarm flag on the risks of a “polycrisis” if the fertilizer and pesticide disruptions from the war in Iran propagate through our global food production infrastructure, especially at a time when a super El Niño may be building this summer that could bring challenging weather patterns for many food crop growing areas.

Robert Pape’s latest on Iran War and whether the US optimism on the potential for regime change was always misplaced.
It is behind a paywall, but it is so critical to understand whether Iran’s regime can maintain the ability to disrupt in this conflict or if Pape, even if he is extraordinarily well researched and experienced, is a mere Cassandra. This certainly rhymes with the Chokepoints book above - at least in terms of Iran’s ability to possibly hang on to power and come back another day even if it proves incapable of maintaining Hormuz Strait disruptions for much longer (we hope).

Chart of the Day - The broken Dow Transports index

I forgot to mention this in today’s Saxo Market Call podcast: the wonderful Dow Transports Index, one that has often proven an excellent indicator when one looks at any significant divergences in its performance relative to the broader market as a leading indicator - one element of the legendary Dow Theory - is broken. The enormous pump and dump was driven by the insane short squeeze on index component Avis, the car and truck rental company with a market cap of just a few billion dollars a month ago. For whatever reason, the stock came under attack with heavy buying and likely call option buying as well from unknown operators. For a well organized short squeeze effort, it was an “obvious” target as more than half of the floating shares were sold short by short sellers. Before this squeeze, Avis was actually a negative drag in recent months on the overall Transport’s price-weighted 20-component calculation. In any case, starting in late March, but chiefly in April, Avis shares ramped from near 100 dollars a share on March 20 to as high as 847 dollars a share intraday on Wednesday. They closed that same day at 444 dollars a share and fell by almost half again on Thursday to 229 dollars a share.

What now? For at least a while now, until either the Avis component is dropped and replaced or its behaviour reverts to something resembling an accurate reflection of the outlook for the company’s growth prospects, it will take some time to trust the index again. We can, of course, develop new proprietary indicators that calculate the index performance sans Avis, but it’s a shame to see this storied index warped by this single name, reflecting how crazy pockets of this market have become.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Commodities weekly: From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Commodities extend gains with BCOM TR up around 4% on the week and 25% YTD, led by energy and selected agricultural markets.
The Hormuz disruption is spreading beyond crude into diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals and fertilizers, amplifying global supply stress.
Even with a reopening, normalisation will take months due to logistical bottlenecks, refinery disruptions and delayed production restarts.
Clean energy equities are reviving amid a “perfect storm” of geopolitics, technology gains and rising power demand, while US natural gas diverges lower on domestic oversupply

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for another strong weekly gain, rising around 4% and lifting its year-to-date advance to 25%. As has been the case since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, energy remains the dominant driver, but the composition of gains continues to evolve. While crude oil prices have extended higher, before pausing on news talks in Islamabad may resume, the most pronounced strength is increasingly found further down the value chain, notably in refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel, as well as petrochemical feedstocks and fertilizers.

This highlights a key development in recent weeks: what began as a crude oil supply shock linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now broadened into a multi-commodity disruption. The implications are no longer confined to energy markets alone but are spreading into industrial production, transportation, and ultimately agriculture and food prices.

Precious metals traded lower, led by silver and platinum, while gold remained rangebound between USD 4,650 and 4,850, with rising oil prices influencing the dollar and inflation expectations. Industrial metals were mixed: aluminium and nickel found support from Persian Gulf and Indonesian export restrictions, while copper’s recent rebound - partly driven by sulfuric acid shortages among miners - appears to be losing momentum ahead of key resistance around USD 6.15 per pound.

Commodities: One week performance - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

From crude to products: where the real stress is building

Brent and WTI crude both posted solid weekly gains, rising 14% and 12% respectively, leaving them around 80% higher year-to-date. However, these headline moves continue to understate the severity of the physical market tightness.

Instead, the clearest signs of stress are found in middle distillates. Gas oil (diesel) surged 15% on the week and is now up 110% year-to-date, while NY ULSD climbed 14% and has more than doubled this year. Gasoline has also rallied strongly, but to a lesser extent, reflecting a combination of seasonal demand and availability of supply from gasoline-rich refinery activity in the US.

The divergence between crude and refined products reflects a structural bottleneck. While crude supply has been severely disrupted by the near shutdown of Hormuz flows, the ability to process and distribute refined fuels has been even more constrained. Refinery outages, limited spare capacity, and logistical disruptions have all contributed to a situation where the availability of usable fuels - not crude itself - is becoming the primary concern.

This is increasingly visible across the global economy. Airlines are cutting capacity, industrial users are curbing demand, and governments are drawing on reserves or implementing demand measures, particularly across Asia and parts of Europe.

Brent, spot and futures together wtih jet fuel and gas oil - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

A multi-commodity shock emerges

The Strait of Hormuz is often described as the world’s most important oil chokepoint, but its significance extends far beyond crude. It is a critical transit route not only for oil and LNG, but also for refined fuels, petrochemicals, aluminium, and a gas-dependent fertilizer industry, including ammonia and urea. In addition, the disruption is impacting around 50% of global seaborne sulfuric acid supply - often referred to as the “universal chemical” due to its role as a foundational input in fertilizer production, mining and metal extraction, as well as a wide range of industrial and high-tech manufacturing processes. In response to the shortage and rising domestic prices, China - the world’s largest exporter - announced a total ban on sulfuric acid exports effective May 1, 2026. This raises concerns that other producers of commodities in tight supply may follow suit, curbing exports to protect domestic industries and prices.

As a result, the disruption has triggered a second-round supply shock, with reduced petrochemical availability impacting industrial production and fertilizer shortages raising concerns about crop yields later this year. This dynamic is already visible in agricultural markets, not least across the grains complex. Soybean oil, a key biofuel feedstock, has rallied strongly, up 48% year-to-date, supported by both energy linkages and tightening supply expectations. Wheat, one of the most fertilizer-intensive crops, has been underpinned by ongoing drought concerns across the U.S. winter wheat belt, with reduced fertilizer availability adding to the risk of lower summer production. Elsewhere, sugar has struggled to sustain gains despite its ethanol link, weighed down by ample near-term supply, while cotton has found support from US drought concerns and its linkage to energy through synthetic fibre.

Demand destruction: the market’s balancing mechanism

Despite the severity of the disruption, crude prices have been partly capped by growing evidence of demand destruction. Higher prices and shortages have already reduced consumption, with demand destruction estimated at 4 to 5 million barrels per day, or around 5% of global demand, mainly impacting Asia.

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, has played a particularly important role in stabilising the market. Rather than aggressively competing for limited seaborne supply, Chinese buyers have reduced imports and drawn on extensive strategic and commercial inventories. At the same time, there are indications that China has resold cargoes into the international market, helping to ease immediate supply pressures.

This combination of demand destruction and inventory drawdowns has helped cap crude prices, even as the physical market for refined products continues to tighten.

Why reopening Hormuz will not mean normalisation

The key question is what happens next. Even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to an immediate return to normal conditions. The disruption has created a complex logistical challenge that will take time to resolve. Tankers carrying crude, refined products and LNG are currently stranded, delayed, or positioned in the wrong locations. Clearing this backlog will take weeks, as vessels are sequenced through ports that are themselves operating under constrained conditions.

Beyond shipping, regional refining capacity remains uncertain, with reported damage and disruptions likely to constrain output of key fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. Storage presents another bottleneck, as tanks may be near capacity after prolonged export disruptions, delaying any meaningful production restart.

Finally, restarting production is not instantaneous. Oil and gas wells that have been shut in require careful management to bring back online, and in some cases, this can take weeks or longer. The combined effect of these factors is that normalisation will be measured in months, not days.

In the meantime, the loss of supply during the disruption - potentially approaching one billion barrels before normalisation - will continue to be felt through lower global inventories, effectively raising the floor for how far oil prices may fall once the initial reopening-driven flush has run its course.

Clean energy: a revival driven by necessity

Against this backdrop, the clean energy sector has staged a notable recovery. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF is up more than 20% year-to-date, marking a significant turnaround following a prolonged slump between 2021 and 2025.

The resurgence reflects a convergence of supportive factors, not least renewed focus on energy security following the current crisis. At the same time, lower solar input costs have improved project economics and supported new investment. In addition, rising electricity demand from AI and data centres is supporting investment in generation and storage.

Within the sector, the performance has been led by companies exposed to grid infrastructure, battery storage and utility-scale solar, often described as the “picks and shovels” of the energy transition. Hydrogen and fuel cell companies have also seen renewed interest, albeit with continued volatility.

iShares Global Clean Energy ETF - Source: Saxo

US natural gas: an outlier in a tight energy complex

While global energy markets remain under strain, US natural gas continues to trade to a different tune. Prices tumbled this week after a six-day rally, with the May contract falling to near an 18-month low at $2.55 following a larger-than-expected storage build lifted US stockpiles to 2,063 bcf, which is 7.1% above the five-year average. The build reinforced concerns about oversupply, driven by mild weather conditions and relatively weak seasonal demand.

This divergence highlights the regional nature of gas markets, with the US remaining relatively insulated due to strong domestic supply. At the same time, lower prices are beginning to trigger a supply response, with drillers curbing activity. However, for now, the market remains well supplied, in contrast to the tightness seen in oil and refined products.

Agriculture: fertilizer shortages meet weather risks

Agriculture is emerging as a key area of focus, with risks continuing to build. The disruption to fertilizer supply is a major concern. The Persian Gulf region accounts for a significant share of global exports of nitrogen-based fertilizers, and any prolonged disruption could reduce availability and increase costs for farmers worldwide. This is particularly relevant as the Northern Hemisphere growing season progresses. Reduced fertilizer application could lower yields, especially for crops such as corn, wheat and rice.

Compounding this risk is the evolving weather outlook. Forecasts point to a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to a potential El Niño event from mid-year, raising the risk of more disruptive weather patterns. Depending on the region, this could increase the likelihood of droughts or excessive rainfall, both of which can negatively impact crop production.

The combination of higher input costs and weather uncertainty points to increased volatility in the months ahead.

Conclusion: a broadening and persistent supply shock

In summary, the current commodity rally is being driven by more than just higher crude oil prices. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a broad and deep supply shock that is now affecting multiple sectors, from energy to agriculture.

While demand destruction and inventory drawdowns have helped contain the immediate price impact in crude, the underlying stress is increasingly visible in refined products, fertilizers and industrial inputs.

Even with a reopening, normalisation will be slow, with logistical and operational challenges likely to keep markets tight for months. At the same time, the crisis is accelerating structural shifts, including renewed interest in clean energy and a reassessment of supply chain resilience. For investors and traders, the key takeaway is that the impact of this disruption will be both broad and persistent, extending well beyond the initial shock to oil markets

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Federal Reserve Gold Inflation Copper Industrials Agriculture Silver Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil and Gas Oil Corn Wheat Natural Gas

The great divide: SaaS cools while hardware heats up

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

SaaS weakness reflects tighter expectations, not a collapse in fundamentals.
AI is shifting value from software pricing to hardware capacity and supply.
Markets are rewarding scarcity in chips while questioning growth in software.

Software stocks were meant to be the cleanest story in markets. Predictable revenue, steady growth, and high margins. It felt simple. Right now, it does not feel simple at all. Recent earnings from names like ServiceNow and Adobe have triggered sharp share price reactions. Not because the numbers were disastrous, but because they were not strong enough.

At the same time, parts of the semiconductor world are holding up better. Companies like Intel and Texas Instruments are benefiting from a different kind of question. Not “will customers pay more?” but “who can actually supply what is needed?”

That contrast tells a bigger story. The artificial intelligence trade is not disappearing. It is shifting.

When growth stories meet stricter questions

SaaS, or software as a service, has long been valued on future potential. Investors paid for growth that was expected to continue almost automatically. That expectation is now being tested. Companies are still growing, but at a slower pace. Customers are more careful. Deals take longer. Expansion within existing clients is not as strong as before.

One key measure is net revenue retention. This shows how much existing customers increase their spending over time. For many SaaS firms, this number is drifting lower. The reason is simple. Businesses are reviewing costs. Software budgets are no longer treated as untouchable.

There is also a quiet shift in competition. Large platforms such as Microsoft and Alphabet are bundling more features into their ecosystems. Tools that once justified separate subscriptions are increasingly included as part of a broader offering.

This puts pressure on pricing power. Still, it is important to stay grounded. Many SaaS companies continue to grow at healthy rates. Their margins remain strong. Recurring revenue is still more stable than most business models.

The issue is not that SaaS is breaking. It is that expectations are tightening faster than the businesses are changing.

Chips have something software does not: scarcity

While software faces questions about pricing and demand, hardware tells a different story. Semiconductors are physical. They require factories, supply chains, and years of investment. They cannot be copied overnight.

That creates scarcity. Artificial intelligence is not just a software story. It is also about data centres, power systems, and the chips that make everything run. This is where companies like Intel and Texas Instruments come in.

Intel is working to rebuild its position in advanced chips and manufacturing. It sits closer to the large-scale infrastructure needed to train and run AI systems.

Texas Instruments operates in a quieter part of the market. It produces analogue and embedded chips, the components that help machines sense, control, and manage power. These chips are found in cars, factories, and industrial systems. Not exciting, but essential.

This difference matters. Software can often be replicated or bundled into larger platforms. Hardware cannot. If demand rises, supply takes time to catch up. That gives chipmakers a different kind of pricing power.

In simple terms, software is facing substitution risk. Hardware is facing capacity constraints. Markets are responding accordingly.

A shift from narrative to economics

The recent split between SaaS and semiconductors reflects a deeper change. Investors are moving away from broad narratives and towards practical economics. In software, the key question is whether companies can maintain pricing power and steady expansion.

In hardware, the question is whether supply can meet demand, and at what cost. Both sectors are tied to artificial intelligence, but they sit at different points in the value chain. One is closer to the user. The other is closer to the infrastructure.

Right now, infrastructure looks more tangible. That does not mean hardware is safer. Semiconductor businesses are cyclical. Demand can rise quickly, but it can also fall. Overinvestment is always a risk. It simply means the current phase of the AI cycle is rewarding what is hardest to replicate.

Risks worth watching

There are risks on both sides of this divide.

For SaaS, the main concern is that slower growth becomes structural. If customers continue to reduce spending or switch to bundled solutions, pricing power could weaken more than expected. For hardware, the risk is the opposite. If companies build too much capacity, the industry could face oversupply. That would pressure margins and returns.

There is also a broader risk. If economic conditions deteriorate, both software spending and hardware demand could slow at the same time. Early signals often appear in guidance, order trends, and how companies talk about demand. Tone matters as much as numbers.

The real message behind the market split

At first glance, the recent moves look like a simple rotation. Software down, hardware up. It is more interesting than that. The market is not rejecting artificial intelligence. It is refining how it values it. The focus is shifting from what AI can do to what it requires. Software shows the promise. Hardware carries the cost.

That brings us back to the starting point. Software once felt like the easiest story in markets. Today, it requires more explanation. Hardware, often overlooked, is gaining attention because it is harder to ignore.

For long-term investors, this is not about choosing one over the other. It is about understanding where value is building in each phase of the cycle. The glow around SaaS may have dimmed, but the broader AI story has not. It has simply moved deeper into the system, where scarcity, not just innovation, decides who gets paid.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

The FX Trader: Heavy CB calendar next week, including Powell’s swan song.

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 08:05:00 Z

USD bears still in control, but nervously eyeing Hormuz Strait.

The latest

Key levels soon for some USD pairs as rebounding crude oil and US treasury yields have been driving a USD bounceback all week. The bearish case for the US dollar, outside of the rangebound USDJPY, remains intact but the USD rally this week is taking key pairs into pivotal territory where fresh sellers need to come in to avoid a reversal scenario. Crude oil prices and US treasury yields have ratcheted back higher and the headlines from the Middle East are worse than worrisome, both USD supportive, while the energy is tepid for the overall USD bounce as risk sentiment is in la-la land amidst the runaway enthusiasm for global equities – especially AI-linked names that are on fire. Big earnings for Mag7 are up next week.

NZD bounce fades despite yield support for the currency. NZ might be one of first victims if Hormuz Strait closure continues. The New Zealand dollar got a smart boost early this week on a hot Q1 CPI print that drove a strong surge in short NZ rates as the RBNZ is seen changing its tune and catching up with global peers in eyeing rate hikes. And yet, while the rate move has held, the NZD rally has faded. This is a sign around the edges that global energy supply concerns are weighing on the risk sentiment axis within currencies. The NZ economy is at huge risk within weeks if fuel supplies tighten further. Diesel is the worst pinch-point, with some estimating only three weeks of onshore supplies. Fishing fleets are already vastly reducing activities and transport/logistics and the large agriculture sector there would also feel the pinch if shortages worsen.

CHF techs interesting over next days to couple of weeks. The Swiss Franc was initially a safe haven on the breakout of war in Iran as EURCHF pushed all the way to 0.9000 in the first two weeks of the conflict, clearly raising official concern and pushback. But the rally since the lows seemed due to market forces and pre-dated the comeback in global equities. Why? A bit difficult to root out the causes, but I suspect the weakness in gold has played a role as well as Switzerland’s very low yields and a dark horse factor, which could be the risk of capital outflows from Switzerland from the wealthy that hold assets in Switzerland, but are based in the Middle East and Asia. Whatever the case, EURCHF ramped back to within shouting distance of its 200-day moving averagein late March - keeping an eye on the highs of that run if the rally resumes. And the USDCHF situation is very interesting, as I cover below.

Five G10 central bank meetings next week: Powell’s Swan Song at the FOMC? and guidance on incoming hikes from BoJ, BoE and ECB

Bank of Japan (Tuesday): This meeting has the most potential to shock. Market observers watching closely for how Ueda and company guide for the June meeting, (currently priced at 60% likely to produce a hike), with additional huge focus on observations on the currency as we bump up close to the critical 160.00 level in USDJPY. The Bank’s best approach for effective intervention would be to shock the market with a rate hike, but this isn’t Governor Ueda’s usual style. The BoJ did shock on the hawkish side back in July of 2024 with a larger than anticipated hike (with a titanic impact back then, it should be noted.).
Bank of Canada (Wednesday): Little drama expected here, with Bank of Canada not seen moving off its 2.25% policy rate until possibly September or October – watching for wording around any urgency on inflation, but Canada is quite well insulated from the price and especially supply-shocks of other economies from crisis of global supplies.
FOMC (Wednesday): No expectations of drama. This should be, and most likely will be Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair, with the “most likely” needed in that sentence because of the outside risk that Kevin Warsh is not approved in time for the June FOMC meeting. Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends May 15. The forward expectations for Fed rates are entirely flat through the end of this year and we are awaiting the transition to a new era at the Fed under Chair Warsh and how he will coordinate policy with Treasury Secretary Bessent and vice versa. Geopolitics, risk sentiment and incoming US data the week after will likely weigh more heavily than this meeting.
ECB (Thursday): ECB members generally guiding for rate tightening as long as energy prices threaten higher inflation – market will be looking for level of urgency as well as offsetting language around the concerns for the growth outlook that suggest a reluctant hike cycle. With a June ECB hike about 80% priced and two hikes more than fully priced through the September meeting, the hawkish bar feels a bit high.
Bank of England: Ditto on the ECB observations, although with no pressure on sterling, the BoE ought to keep its urgency low - two fully 25-bp hikes are priced for the three Jun-Sep BoE meetings – that’s the baseline. It’s a fractious MPC and we may see hawkish dissents wanting an immediate hike.

Chart focus: USDCHF
USDCHF is in rather neutral territory here technically, though it is structurally rather USD bullish after having launched the full reversal in February and March of the sell-off sequence into sub-0.7700 levels. The throwback sell-off caught support at the classic 61.8% Fibo retracement, establishing an important support line for the bullish case. From here, that key local low is the bull-bear line (drop below and technical outlook clouds or turns bearish locally), while a rally that starts to poke back above 0.8000 again in the coming days/weeks starts to complete an inverse head-and-shoulders formation with the neckline at 0.8042, supposedly pointing to a technical target north of 0.8450. Let’s see.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The US dollar momentum has turned positive this week, and not much of a USD downtrend is really there in the broader picture – next week looks key for overall status for the greenback. Elsewhere, AUD strength has faded, but still notable, while NOK strength is the outlier on the positive side and we roll into the next Bank of Japan meeting with a still very weak JPY.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
EURGBP has flipped into a negative trend reading – but a brief glance at the chart shows that there is no trend, so let’s see how that ages through next week and any possible sell-off in risk sentiment. Elsewhere, the EURUSD up-trend is soon at risk of a reversal if the 1.1650-00 area falls. And the fresh EURSEK down-trend is struggling for relevance as well as the price action has backed up since poking on key support. The Gold chart is very difficult given the technical setup – over 1,300 dollars of price range in March and we are in the middle of that range now.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - 24 April 2026

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:14:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 24 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US fell on higher oil and tech weakness, Europe steadied on earnings, while Asia was mixed as Korea outperformed.
Volatility: VIX holding near 19 as oil and geopolitical risks keep markets cautious
Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady but not leading, supported by IBIT inflows while ETHA sees outflows
Fixed Income: Global yields back up on higher crude oil prices
Currencies: US dollar grinds higher, with USDJPY approaching key 160.00 level.
Commodities: Crude gains, natural gas tumbles, while fertilizer shortages and El Niño raise crop concerns
Macro events: Germany April IFO Business Climate & US April University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from 1.3% in February, driven by higher transport and household item costs. Food inflation eased to 3.6%, while electricity and gas prices fell further on subsidies. Core inflation picked up to 1.8%, still below the 2% target. Month-on-month, CPI increased 0.4%, the strongest rise since January 2025.
Trump’s Truth Social posts and decision to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports have hindered prospects for renewed talks with Tehran. The US-Iran ceasefire and the Israel-Lebanon truce were both extended, but disruptions have sharply reduced Middle East oil and gas shipments, tightening global supply.
The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 52 in April 2026 from 50.3 in March, indicating modest growth. Services activity was weak despite a move back into expansion, while manufacturing saw its strongest output gain in four years, partly from stockpiling. Input costs and supply delays hit their worst since mid-2022, triggering the largest jump in selling prices since July 2022, and employment increased only slightly.
US initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, near expectations. Continuing claims edged up by 12,000 to 1.821 million. Both remain below last year’s averages, consistent with low layoff levels. Federal employee claims fell by 60 to 452.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 in March 2026 from +0.03 in February, its weakest since November 2025, as production, sales, and consumption/housing turned negative, partly offset by slightly stronger employment indicators.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 - UK March Retail Sales
0800 – Germany April IFO Business Climate
1230 – Canada Feb. Retail Sales
1400 – US Final April University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings this week

Today: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

Next week

Monday: Verizon, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics
Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.40 on Thursday, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.6% and the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%, as rising oil prices revived concern that the Middle East conflict could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for longer. Technology led the weakness, with ServiceNow plunging 17.8% after cutting its full-year forecast. Lockheed Martin fell 4.7% after earnings declined more than expected. After the close, Intel jumped about 20% after guiding for June-quarter revenue of USD 13.8 billion to USD 14.8 billion, well above expectations, giving chip investors something less gloomy to chew on.
Europe: European equities ended slightly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 edging up to 614.20 as investors balanced Middle East risks against a busy earnings day. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% to 10,457.01 and the DAX slipped 0.2% to 24,155.45, while Switzerland’s SMI rose 1.4% and broke a three-day losing streak. Nestle gained 5.9% after coffee and snack demand helped sales beat expectations, while L’Oreal rose after reporting its strongest quarterly sales growth in two years. The session showed the old market truth: good earnings can still talk, even when oil is shouting.
Asia: Asian markets were mixed on Friday as Middle East uncertainty kept risk appetite uneven, while Korea stood out on stronger domestic data and chip earnings. South Korea’s Kospi opened 0.3% higher at 6,496.10 after rising 0.9% on Thursday to 6,475.81, supported by SK Hynix’s earnings beat and stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth. Samsung shares set another record, helped by continued optimism around memory and artificial intelligence demand. Japan was softer, with Nikkei futures down 0.2% at 59,050 as the yen traded near 159.74 per dollar. Investors now watch whether higher oil starts to bite into margins across the region.

Volatility

Volatility is still relatively contained, but the tone has clearly shifted from calm to cautious. The VIX closed at 19.31 on Thursday, moving higher alongside a modest equity pullback, as investors reacted to renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices above $100. At the same time, markets are looking ahead to a heavy macro and earnings week, with central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) and major tech earnings likely to act as key volatility triggers rather than today’s data alone.
SPX options pricing currently implies an expected move of about 45.7 points (0.64%) into today’s 24 April expiry. The options market also shows a clear defensive tilt: near-the-money puts are trading around 23–24% implied volatility, versus roughly 17–18% for calls, meaning investors are still paying significantly more for downside protection than for upside exposure. This gap suggests that, despite markets being near highs, there is still underlying demand for insurance rather than outright risk-taking.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are trading with a softer tone, reflecting the same cautious mood seen in broader markets. Bitcoin is hovering around $77,800, Ethereum near $2,315, and XRP around $1.43, with most major tokens slightly lower on the day as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices weigh on overall risk appetite. The key takeaway is that crypto is not trading in isolation — it is moving alongside macro sentiment rather than leading it.
ETF flows remain the main stabilising force. Bitcoin ETFs, led by IBIT, continue to attract steady inflows, extending a multi-day positive streak and reinforcing institutional demand. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs — including ETHA — have seen renewed outflows, signalling weaker conviction in ETH relative to BTC for now. Beneath the surface, alt-coins like Solana remain under pressure, and crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also softer, reflecting a more selective and less confident risk environment rather than a broad risk-on phase.

Fixed Income

US treasury yields backed up further on Thursday as crude oil prices rose on fresh uncertainty on the outlook for global supplies, spiking inflation concerns. The benchmark 2-year treasury rose four basis points Thursday to close near 3.84% while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose as much as five basis points Thursday to 4.35% dropped back to 4.33% in later trading.

Commodities

As the Middle East crisis continues, and with it the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a weekly gain of more than 3%, lifting its year-to-date return above 25%. The advance has been supported by renewed strength across the energy sector, where all components except US natural gas are higher, delivering an 11% gain. Together with broad, albeit modest, gains across agriculture, this has more than offset a near 5% loss in precious metals, while industrial metals have traded mixed. Fuel products have led the advance, not least gas oil and diesel, followed by soybean oil, wheat and coffee. Gold, silver and natural gas have been the biggest drags on overall performance.
US natural gas futures tumbled after a six-day winning streak, with the May contract slumping to $2.57 after the EIA reported a bigger-than-expected 103 bcf weekly injection into domestic stockpiles. Inventories rose to 2,063 bcf, leaving them 7.1% above the five-year average. The stock build reinforced concerns about oversupply, driven by mild seasonal weather and soft demand, even as drillers have started curbing activity in response to weaker prices.
Oil trades higher for a fifth day, with no apparent end in sight to the Middle East stalemate as the US and Iran continue to block access through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption threatens to further delay flows of crude, fuel, chemicals, metals and fertilizers from the Persian Gulf. Even a full reopening may still leave flows taking several months to normalize, creating additional tightness, especially in diesel and jet fuel, and forcing countries and companies to curb demand. Meanwhile, US shale executives appear in no hurry to increase production despite higher prices, given heightened uncertainty over the outcome of the war and current market volatility.
Agriculture: adding to the current fertilizer shortage, which has already raised concerns about global crop yields, NOAA confirms that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through June 2026 before transitioning to an El Niño from July with a +60% probability - raising the risk of droughts and floods in key producing regions, depending on location.

Currencies

The US dollar edged higher, perhaps in part on the fresh rise in crude oil prices and US treasury yields. EURUSD pushed back below 1.1700 Thursday in its continuing slide from 1.1851 highs last week. USDJPY remains in a remarkably compressed range , but has pulled back close to the 160.00 level (159.84 high in Asian trading hours Friday) widely seen as likely to bring attention from Japanese officialdom and possibly intervention to prevent further JPY weakening.
AUDUSD dipped to its lowest level in over a week to just below 0.7120 late Thursday, trading 0.7127 in early trading Friday, while its fellow Antipodean NZD fell more sharply despite a strong reset higher in short NZ yields in anticipation of incoming RBNZ rate hikes after a strong Q1 CPI print earlier this week. NZDUSD dropped back as low as 0.5840 early Friday after dropping from north of 0.5920 Thursday.
The high oil and gas prices have sent EURNOK to new three-year lows below 10.90 and NOKSEK to a new high since late 2024 as that exchange rate nears parity, trading 0.9929 early Thursday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

AI picks & shovels rocket higher. If only they could open the Hormuz Strait.

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:26:00 Z

GE Vernova rushes to new all time highs on AI data center build out.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Links

Luke Gromen was on Macrovoices last week and makes some key points on the risks to the global economy and markets if this Hormuz Strait crisis drags into summer.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Oil jolt, US records - 23 April 2026

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:08:00 Z

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record as strong earnings offset Strait of Hormuz tensions, while the options market quietly priced nearly double the implied volatility for puts versus calls.

Options Brief – Oil jolt, US records – 23 April 2026

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record while the options market quietly doubled down on downside protection — and oil’s fourth straight gain keeps the geopolitical pressure on.

Wednesday’s session delivered a split result: US equities pushed to new highs on strong earnings from technology and industrial names, while European markets retreated under the weight of rising energy costs. The dominant driver behind both moves was the same — Strait of Hormuz disruption. Iran fired on at least three vessels on Wednesday, and although President Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension, Tehran has signalled no intention to negotiate. Brent crude rose for a fourth consecutive session to around $103 per barrel. The S&P 500 finished at a record 7,137.90 (+1.05%), the Nasdaq 100 added 1.73% to 26,937.27, and the Dow Jones rose 0.69% to 49,490.03. Underneath the headline gains, the options market tells a more cautious story: put options on the S&P 500 are priced at nearly double the implied volatility of comparable calls, a persistent signal that institutional money is buying insurance even as the index climbs.

Headline driver

Strait of Hormuz tensions keep oil rising; strong US earnings offset the geopolitical drag — but the picture is more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.

Oil and geopolitics. Iran attacked at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. President Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension, but Tehran has made clear it has no interest in negotiations. The US also faces a hard deadline: under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, Congress must authorise military operations by 1 May, or they must wind down within 60 days. Brent crude extended its run to four consecutive days of gains, reaching approximately $103 per barrel. WTI crude currently trades at $94.49, up 1.65%. The energy-price increase is acting as a direct drag on European corporate margins and consumer confidence, which explains why the STOXX 600 and DAX weakened even as Wall Street strengthened.

US earnings providing the offset. A strong earnings session on Wednesday more than neutralised the geopolitical noise for US equities. Micron gained 8.5% on AI-driven demand, GE Vernova surged 13% on data-centre power demand, Boston Scientific rose 9.0%, and Boeing added 5.5%. The pattern is consistent: companies with direct exposure to AI infrastructure or defence are seeing outsized moves. Today’s earnings slate includes Intel, American Express, Honeywell, Blackstone, and Lockheed Martin — names that collectively span technology, financials, industrials, and defence, and will test whether Wednesday’s momentum has legs.

Market snapshot – Wednesday 22 April 2026

US equities at records; Europe softens; oil rises for a fourth straight session.

S&P 500: 7,137.90 (+1.05%) — a fresh record close driven by technology and industrial earnings
Nasdaq 100: 26,937.27 (+1.73%) — Micron +8.5%, GE Vernova +13%, Boston Scientific +9.0%
Dow Jones: 49,490.03 (+0.69%); Russell 2000: 2,785.38 (+0.74%)
STOXX 600: 613.89 (–0.35%); DAX: 24,135.74 (–0.24%) — Europe weighed by rising energy costs
WTI crude oil: $94.49 (+1.65%); Brent crude: approximately $103 — fourth consecutive daily gain
Gold: $4,726.40 (–0.56%); DXY (US dollar index): 98.605 (+0.20%)
US 10-year yield: 4.311% (+0.14%); US 2-year yield: 3.804% (flat)

Market pulse: The US–Europe divergence is the story. Strong earnings are holding up US indices at record levels, while rising energy costs are putting quiet pressure on European earnings expectations — a split that is unlikely to close until the oil situation resolves.

Options angle

Records on the surface, caution underneath — and two practical setups for navigating it.

VIX — the market’s main gauge of expected volatility — closed at 18.92 on Wednesday, a modest step down from 19.50 the day before. At face value that looks calm, but the details tell a more cautious story. Near-the-money put options on the S&P 500 are priced at around 25% implied volatility, roughly double the 13% implied volatility of equivalent call options. In plain terms: the options market is paying nearly twice as much to protect against a drop as it would cost to bet on further upside — even with the index at record levels. This gap, known as put-call skew, is a persistent signal that institutional money is quietly buying insurance.

The shape of the VIX curve adds context. The 1-day VIX (which measures expected volatility over the next 24 hours only) has dropped sharply to 12.28 (–24.20%), meaning the immediate event risk from the ceasefire announcement has been priced out. At the same time, front-month VIX futures remain above 20 at 20.65, and equity put-call ratios fell around 14–19% on the day — consistent with some unwinding of hedges as the rally gathered pace, but not a full clearing of protective positioning. The short end of the vol curve is calm; the medium term is not.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy Insight - Put spread rather than outright puts. The wide gap between put and call implied volatility makes straight put purchases expensive right now. A put spread — buying a put at one strike and selling a put at a lower strike simultaneously — delivers similar downside protection at considerably less cost. The trade-off is that your maximum profit is capped at the difference between the two strikes, but you also define your maximum loss upfront and significantly reduce the drag from elevated put premium. It is a better fit for an environment where the direction of risk is clear (oil, geopolitics) but the timing is not.

Strategy Insight - Covered calls on big earnings winners. Micron gained 8.5% and GE Vernova surged 13% on Wednesday’s earnings. For investors already holding these stocks, the post-earnings spike in implied volatility creates a window. Selling a covered call — agreeing to sell your shares above a target price in exchange for premium you collect now — lets you monetise elevated implied vol before it deflates. Post-earnings implied volatility compresses quickly once the event has passed, so the days immediately after a strong earnings move tend to be the best time to sell. It is a straightforward way to improve the return on a position you intend to hold.

Conclusion

US equities are at records, yet the options market is still pricing a meaningful premium for downside protection — a divergence that tends to resolve eventually, either through a pullback or a vol crush as uncertainty clears. Oil remains the swing factor: the Strait of Hormuz situation is unresolved, and the War Powers Resolution deadline of 1 May gives the geopolitical situation a hard near-term endpoint. Today’s session brings Flash PMI data for Europe and the US (a read on how the oil price is feeding through to broader economic activity), weekly jobless claims, and earnings from Intel, American Express, Honeywell, and Blackstone — all capable of moving the dial on sentiment. The earnings-driven momentum from Wednesday needs fresh evidence to sustain it.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

The Tesla quarter that said “better now, costlier later”

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla beat expectations on profit and cash flow, but the bigger story was a much larger spending plan.
The core car business looks steadier, yet Tesla is asking investors to fund a wider bet on autonomy and robotics.
That matters beyond Tesla, because the electric vehicle race is shifting from pure sales growth to execution, cost control and software scale.

Tesla’s first-quarter update lands with a familiar kind of tension. The company gave investors a better set of near-term numbers, then reminded them that the real story sits further out and costs a lot more. In extended trading, the shares initially climbed as much as 4.8%, to 406 USD after the results, before that early cheer faded as management lifted its 2026 spending plan and warned of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year. Markets, it turns out, still enjoy a profit beat, but they become more thoughtful when the invoice arrives.

The headline numbers were strong enough to trigger that initial bounce. Revenue and earnings per share both beat Bloomberg consensus, while gross margin improved to 21.1% from 16.3% a year earlier. Put simply, Tesla earned more from each dollar of sales than the market had expected.

A better quarter, but not a simple one

The reason investors did not celebrate for long is that Tesla paired that beat with a much heavier spending message. Management now expects capital expenditure, meaning money spent on factories, equipment and major projects, to exceed 25 billion USD in 2026. That is at least 5 billion USD above its earlier forecast of around 20 billion USD. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja also said the company expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026 as this investment phase ramps. That changes the tone. A company can beat this quarter and still make next year feel more expensive.

Tesla Capital Expenditures: Historical, Guidance, and Estimates (USD Billions)

Source: Saxo Bank analysis, Bloomberg consensus. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

This is why the market reaction makes sense. Tesla’s earnings beat says the present is holding up better than feared. The spending plan says the future will require much more trust. Investors are not just buying a carmaker here. They are being asked to keep funding a transition into artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, robotaxis, chips and new factories. That is a very large sentence, and an even larger cheque. The market’s hesitation was less about the quarter and more about what the quarter is being used to finance.

Cars still pay the bills

That matters because Tesla’s traditional auto business is still the engine supporting the rest of the story. The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the quarter, up 21,342, or 6.3%, from a year earlier, but still below Wall Street expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. It also produced 408,386 vehicles, which means production exceeded deliveries by 50,363 units. That gap matters. It suggests Tesla is stabilising demand, not escaping the harder reality of a more competitive electric vehicle market. Chinese rivals remain aggressive, price pressure has not vanished, and the expiry of a United States electric-vehicle tax incentive adds another headwind.

Tesla did offer some encouraging signs. It said demand improved in Asia-Pacific and South America and rebounded in North America and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. It also pointed to progress on Full Self-Driving, or FSD, which still requires human supervision, including Dutch approval in April and a wider European process now under way. Meanwhile, paid robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially, and Tesla has expanded rides in Texas while preparing more US cities. These are not yet profit centres on a scale that changes the income statement. But they do show the company is trying to turn a story into a service.

The wider message for the industry

The broader lesson is that the electric vehicle industry is maturing into something more demanding. For years, the simple question was who could sell more electric cars. Now the question is who can fund the next layer without breaking the economics of the current one. Tesla is trying to use a steadier car business to bankroll autonomy and robotics. Other carmakers may not have that luxury. That makes Tesla’s quarter relevant well beyond one ticker. It highlights how future advantage may sit not only in vehicle design, but in software, data, chips, factories and balance-sheet stamina. That is less cinematic than a robot unveiling, but usually more useful for investors.

There is also a useful warning in the side businesses. Tesla’s energy generation and storage revenue fell to 2.41 billion USD, down 12%, from a year earlier. Management called that business “lumpy”, meaning the timing of projects can swing results from quarter to quarter. Fair enough. But it also shows that even Tesla’s brighter narratives do not always move in a straight line. When a company is trying to be carmaker, software house, robotics lab and energy platform at once, investors need to accept that some parts will look tidier than others.

Risks worth keeping in view

The main risk is execution. Tesla now has more projects that need to work, not fewer. Investors should watch whether Cybercab production really scales, whether robotaxi disclosures become more concrete, and whether the core car business can keep funding the transition. A second risk is that competition in electric vehicles keeps tightening while Tesla spends more heavily elsewhere. A third is that valuation still rests partly on future businesses that remain early, regulated and hard to model. In plain English, the dream is large, but so is the distance between pilot project and durable profit.

The price of tomorrow

Tesla’s quarter does not settle the big debate around the stock. It sharpens it. The company showed that the present is in better shape than many feared, but also that management is doubling down on a future that asks for more capital, more patience and more belief. That is the loop investors come back to with Tesla again and again. It sells cars today, but it is valued for what it hopes to become tomorrow. This quarter made that trade-off clearer, not easier. And perhaps that is the real Tesla earnings story: better numbers bought the company a little more time, but time, like everything else in this story, is unlikely to be cheap.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings Tesla Tesla Motors Tesla Inc.

Market Quick Take - 23 April 2026

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 06:42:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 23 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Wall Street hit fresh highs, Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, while Asia stayed mixed as Japan’s AI rally met China resilience.
Volatility: VIX below 19, ceasefire support, downside protection demand
Digital Assets: BTC and ETH steady, IBIT and ETHA strong, alt-coins softer
Fixed Income: Global bond yields edge higher on fresh rise in crude oil prices.
Currencies: US dollar firms again on latest crude oil price spike.
Commodities: Oil rebound sets the tone with metals lower
Macro events: Flash April Manufacturing and Services PMI for Eurozone, UK and US, Japan Mar. National CPI

Macro headlines

The US and Iran are both acting to block the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran firing on at least three ships Wednesday. Before the expiry of the original ceasefire Wednesday, US President Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely, awaiting an Iranian peace proposal, though Tehran said it has no intent to engage in peace talks.
US President Trump has a May 1 deadline for seeking congressional authorization for the war in Iran under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which states that if no formal declaration of war or other authorization has been made, he must wind down any military action within 60 days. Trump can extend activity for 30 days, but only if safe withdrawal of US forces is deemed a military necessity.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0715 – France Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – UK Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1230 – US Mar. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1345 – US Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1430 – EIAs Natural Gas Storage Change
2301 – UK GfK Consumer Confidence
2330 – Japan Mar. National CPI

Earnings this week

Wednesday (yesterday): Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, ABB, Boeing, Boston Scientific
Thursday (today): Intel, American Express, KLA Corporation, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra Energy, Southern Copper, Newmont
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,137.90 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7% to 24,937.28, while the Dow added 0.7% to 49,490.03, as an extended U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a strong batch of earnings kept risk appetite alive even with oil still near USD 100. Micron jumped 8.5% as artificial intelligence demand kept chip optimism running, Boeing rose about 5.5% after a smaller-than-expected loss, GE Vernova surged more than 13% after lifting its 2026 outlook on data-centre power demand, and Boston Scientific climbed 9.0% after cutting guidance in what investors read as the reset they had been waiting for. Focus now shifts to whether earnings can keep outrunning the oil bill.
Europe: The STOXX 600 fell 0.4% to 613.88, the DAX slipped 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 edged 0.2% lower to 10,476.46, as investors weighed a fragile Middle East truce, firmer oil, and another heavy round of earnings. There were still pockets of strength: ASM International jumped 7.1% after guiding for stronger second-quarter revenue, and ABB rose 3.4% after lifting its sales outlook. On the other side of the ledger, Deutsche Telekom dropped 4.8% on merger speculation around T-Mobile US, while Reckitt fell 4.6% after weak quarterly numbers. Europe again looked like a market split between energy and tech winners, and everyone else paying the petrol bill.
Asia: Asia was mixed on Wednesday’s closes, with Japan standing out as the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% to 59,585.86, though the broader Topix fell 0.7% to 3,744.99, showing the rally remained narrow and heavily tied to the artificial intelligence trade. Mainland China was firmer, with the CSI 300 rising 0.7% to 4,799.63 and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.5% to 4,106.26, while Hong Kong lagged as the Hang Seng fell 1.2% to 26,163.24. SoftBank surged about 8.5% on renewed enthusiasm around its AI ambitions, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics rose 0.6% and SK Hynix slipped 0.4% in a more selective chip trade. The next test is whether Asia’s tech leadership broadens out, or stays a very crowded table for a few names.

Volatility

Volatility eased after Wednesday’s strong risk-on session, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,137.90 and the VIX at 18.92, down from 19.50 the day before. The move reflects improving sentiment following the indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire and solid earnings, but investors are not fully relaxed as oil prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions have not disappeared.
Today’s focus shifts to US jobless claims, PMI data and another heavy earnings calendar, all of which could challenge the current risk-on tone.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of around 56.6 points into Friday, or roughly 0.8% from current levels.
For today’s expiry, the options market still shows a clear downside skew, with near-the-money puts around 7140–7150 priced at roughly 22.6%–23.2% implied volatility, compared with about 11.1%–11.3% for comparable calls, highlighting continued demand for downside protection.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are holding onto a constructive tone, although momentum has slowed slightly after yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin is trading around $78,200 and Ether near $2,350, supported by improved risk appetite following easing geopolitical concerns.
Institutional demand remains a key pillar: IBIT rose 5.27% and ETHA gained 4.50%. Among crypto-linked equities, COIN (+5.28%), MSTR (+9.39%), MARA (+5.43%), RIOT (+6.15%), and CIFR (+7.76%) all moved higher, reinforcing the broader positive sentiment across the space. In contrast, major alt-coins such as XRP and Solana are slightly softer this morning, suggesting some profit-taking after recent gains.
Overall, the setup remains constructive, but less one-directional, with investors balancing continued inflows against near-term consolidation.

Fixed Income

US treasury yields rose Wednesday and in early Thursday trading on the fresh spike in crude oil prices, which raises inflationary pressures and the probability of tighter Fed policy. The benchmark 2-year treasury rose two basis points Wednesday to close near 4.80% before some additional upside pressure in early Thursday trading, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose about a basis point to just above 4.30% Wednesday, trading slightly higher early Thursday.
European bonds are under pressure on the fresh rise in oil prices, with the German 2-year Schatz benchmark closing Wednesday at its highest yield in over a week at 2.56%. That’s up over three basis points from the Tuesday close and up 16 basis points from the Friday close. The 10-year benchmark German Bund yield trades mid-range of the last several weeks, near 3.00%.

Commodities

Oil trades higher for a fourth consecutive day, with Brent trading around USD 103, as both Iran and the U.S. attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, with no clear end in sight to a war that has severely disrupted global supplies of several key commodities. While the immediate focus remains on energy, the impact is increasingly at risk of spilling into agriculture, where a developing fertilizer shortage could weigh on crop production in the months ahead.
With flows of crude and refined products constrained, the pre-war global supply buffer is being eroded rapidly. As a result, the global economy is left with limited options to rebalance the market. The most immediate - and economically painful - adjustment mechanism is demand destruction, which is already becoming evident. Refiners are reducing runs, while several import-dependent and economies and industries are implementing measures to curb consumption.
Gold and silver continue to take their cues from the oil market, with rising energy costs keeping the risk of near-term dollar strength and elevated inflation in focus. So far this month, gold has traded within a relatively well-defined range between USD 4,875 and USD 4,670, anchored by key Fibonacci levels, with a break potentially suggestion the next move. In the short term, higher oil prices may act as a headwind for precious metals. However, higher oil prices may weigh in the short term before its potential damaging economic impact becomes a tailwind.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed on the fresh spike in crude oil prices as the Hormuz Strait remains almost entirely blocked for shipping. EURUSD dipped below 1.1700 early Thursday after falling from the 1.1750 area the prior day. USDJPY rose slightly to above 159.50, while AUDUSD pulled back slightly to below 0.7150.
The high oil and gas prices have sent EURNOK to new three-year lows below 10.90 and NOKSEK to a new high since late 2024 as that exchange rate nears parity, trading 0.9929 early Thursday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Crude: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key points:

Oil prices continue to whipsaw as traders respond to a confusing and often contradictory flow of headlines, underscoring the deep mistrust between Tehran and Washington.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the market faces a continued, severe, and potentially growing disruption to flows.
Demand destruction (~5 mb/d), combined with China’s stock drawdowns and re-selling of barrels, has masked supply losses and limited crude price upside for now.
Any reopening will be gradual: logistical bottlenecks, refinery damage, and upstream delays are set to keep refined markets tight and support a higher crude price floor

Oil prices continue to whipsaw, but with Brent holding below USD 100 after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, even as peace talks remain on hold due to Tehran’s refusal to negotiate while the US maintains its naval blockade, which may force Tehran to curb production within 15 days according to JPM. The result is a continued and severe, and potentially growing, disruption to flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.

The latest sequence of developments where claims are met with counterclaims or accusations of being false underlines the deep lack of trust between the two warring sides, and it has left the market guessing - which is never a good thing - about what may happen next. Overall, it confirms that headline-driven optimism can reverse quickly when not backed by enforcement on the ground.

Part of the market’s resilience during the disruption can be traced to softer demand, particularly across Asia. According to Vitol, higher oil and fuel prices have already triggered around 5 million b/d of demand destruction. China - the world’s largest crude importer - has further amplified this effect by reducing seaborne purchases, actively reselling barrels, and drawing on substantial strategic and commercial inventories estimated at around 1–1.2 billion barrels. Together, these factors have helped offset the immediate need for imports, thereby containing the price response despite severely restricted flows. However, such support is likely temporary and reversible. Market stress, meanwhile, remains evident in refined products, where shortages of diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks continue to underpin prices.

The key question now is what happens next, assuming a more durable reopening can eventually be achieved.

Even in a scenario where the Strait remains open, the process of restoring normal flows is unlikely to be smooth. Tankers are out of position, supply chains dislocated, and the task of re-aligning vessels with loading and discharge points may create a logistical bottleneck in the weeks ahead. A reopening in principle does not translate into an immediate recovery in effective supply.

With more than 500 million barrels of lost production potentially rising towards 1 billion, even a full normalisation which is likely months away, would still leave the market in a much tighter situation than before, potentially lifting the price floor in crude oil by around 10-15 dollars compared to what it was before the war started. In the meantime, current tightness - especially in refined products - is expected to persist. This reflects not only disrupted crude flows but also the uncertain state of refinery infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, where damage assessments are only now beginning to emerge.

With jet fuel prices more than doubling since the war began, the market continues to tighten, forcing airlines globally to cancel flights or raise fares. Lufthansa, for example, plans to cancel around 20,000 flights between May and October - equivalent to roughly 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel - saving about USD 60 million at current prices. Further highlighting the strain, European transport ministers met this week to discuss contingency plans after the International Energy Agency warned Europe has less than six weeks of jet fuel supplies remaining.

Following an eventual reopening of the Strait, upstream constraints add further delays. Production cannot resume at scale until storage tanks are sufficiently drawn down. Only then can wells begin to reopen - an operational process that may take weeks or longer depending on field conditions and infrastructure damage.

On the political side, Iran’s formal structure remains centred on the Supreme Leader, who holds ultimate authority over the armed forces. However, recent developments suggest hardline elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are increasingly shaping operational outcomes, particularly in strategic areas such as Hormuz. This raises questions about who ultimately controls decisions and who can credibly negotiate with Washington.

For negotiations, this creates a structural challenge: external counterparts may engage with officials able to shape a deal, but implementation depends on alignment with the Supreme Leader’s circle and, critically, the IRGC. If hardliners choose to maintain pressure, diplomatic agreements risk being diluted, delayed, or only partially enforced in practice.

Conclusion:

While the underlying physical market remains constrained, near-term price action is driven by attempts to gauge the true extent of disruption, with demand destruction, sentiment and positioning playing a key role. Demand softness has temporarily masked the severity of supply losses, but this is unlikely to persist. Logistical delays, refinery disruptions and a slow upstream recovery point to continued tightness in refined products, leaving a risk of renewed upside pressure the longer a peace deal remains elusive.

Refined fuel products such as diesel and jet fuel remain elevated despite sub-100 dollar crude - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

The steep backwardation in WTI and Brent highlights current supply stress and market anticipation of normalisation later -Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

In the latest COT reporting week to 7 April when prices slumped 12%, the net long in WTI and Brent remained elevated, leaving the market exposed to further long liquidation, a key driver of recent price weakness - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

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Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil and Gas Oil

Vast demand destruction is helping keep a lid on oil. Big SaaS test today.

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Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

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Options Brief - Iran ceasefire extends, risk-on - 22 April 2026

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 08:35:00 Z

Trump extends the US-Iran ceasefire; oil falls, futures rally, and VIX1D’s 33% spike is now a vol crush story - with Tesla earnings still on deck tonight.

Options Brief - Iran extends, risk-on - 22 April 2026

Breaking: Trump extends the ceasefire. Oil falls, futures rally, and the vol premium priced for a binary that never arrived begins to crush — with Tesla still on the desk for tonight.

This morning’s dominant development: President Trump is extending the US–Iran ceasefire. The binary event risk that drove Tuesday’s broad selloff — the S&P 500 –0.63%, RUT –1.00%, VIX closing at 19.50 — has resolved constructively. Oil is selling off as the Hormuz risk premium deflates: WTI futures at $88.85 (–0.91%), Brent at $97.56 (–0.93%). US equity futures are pointing meaningfully higher: S&P 500 futures +0.56% to 7,139.50, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.72%, Russell 2000 futures +0.96%. Front-month VIX futures are falling 1.69% to 20.60. The short-dated vol premium that was explicitly priced for today’s binary is now set to crush. Tesla earnings after tonight’s close remain the session’s remaining event risk.

Headline driver

The binary resolved to the upside. Oil falls, futures rally, and a vol crush is underway — but the session isn’t over.

Iran ceasefire extended. President Trump is extending the US–Iran ceasefire, removing the event risk that dominated Tuesday’s session. Oil futures are falling sharply as the Hormuz risk premium deflates: WTI at $88.85 (–0.91%), Brent at $97.56 (–0.93%). Equity futures across the board are pointing higher — Russell 2000 futures leading at +0.96%, consistent with a relief rotation that benefits domestic risk assets most. Front-month VIX futures are already dropping to 20.60 (–1.69%). The market that sold off into the deadline is now buying back in with the uncertainty removed. Whether the extension is substantive or procedural remains a question for later in the session; for now, the short-term risk premium is deflating.

Warsh and the Fed. Yesterday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh remains the one unresolved institutional overhang from the original setup. “Inflation is a choice” was the headline line; confirmation odds on Polymarket sit at 34% before Powell’s May 15 term end. This is a slower-moving uncertainty than a ceasefire deadline, and it continues to provide a structural bid under the longer end of the VIX curve even as the front end compresses on the ceasefire extension.

Market snapshot – Tuesday 21 April 2026

Broad declines at yesterday’s close; a sharp reversal underway this morning on ceasefire extension news.

S&P 500 (Tuesday close): 7,064.01 (–0.63%)
Nasdaq 100 (Tuesday close): 26,479.47 (–0.42%)
Russell 2000 (Tuesday close): 2,764.97 (–1.00%)
Dow Jones (Tuesday close): 49,149.38 (–0.59%)
Euro Stoxx 50 (Tuesday close): 5,930.24 (–0.88%) — CAC 40 weakest at –1.14%; FTSE outlier at +0.33%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): +8–9% — Q1 EPS $7.23 vs $6.65 estimated; revenue $111.7B; guidance raised
VIX (Tuesday close): 19.50 (+3.34%); front-month VIX futures at 20.70 in contango above spot
VIX1D (Tuesday close): 16.20 (+33.55%) — priced the ceasefire binary as a discrete event risk
This morning — US futures (ceasefire extension): S&P 500 futures +0.56% to 7,139.50 — Nasdaq 100 futures +0.72% — Russell 2000 futures +0.96% — Dow futures +0.52%
This morning — front-month VIX futures: 20.60 (–1.69%) — vol deflating as event risk is removed
This morning — crude oil: WTI $88.85 (–0.91%), Brent $97.56 (–0.93%) — Hormuz risk premium deflating

Market pulse: The session has flipped from risk-off to risk-on in a single headline. Oil falling and equity futures rallying simultaneously is the cleanest confirmation of a ceasefire-extension read; VIX futures declining 1.69% confirms the short-dated vol premium is already compressing.

Options angle

The geopolitical binary has resolved — and the vol surface is adjusting accordingly. Two setups remain on the desk.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

1. The VIX1D vol crush. Yesterday’s 33.55% spike in VIX1D to 16.20 was a textbook example of short-dated implied vol pricing a discrete binary event. That event has now resolved — constructively. The premium that was bid specifically for the ceasefire expiry will deflate quickly; VIX1D is likely to compress sharply as the event horizon disappears. Front-month VIX futures have already begun moving in this direction, falling 1.69% to 20.60 this morning. Energy derivatives, where the Hormuz risk premium was most directly expressed, may see an even faster compression as oil prices fall. This is the post-event vol crush in real time: the insurance priced for a specific outcome is now expiring, and premium decays at speed when the uncertainty that priced it is removed. For those who had positioned on the protection side of the binary, the extension is the exit signal on that hedge.

2. UNH — the earnings vol mispricing template. The options market priced a 4.16% implied move into UnitedHealth’s Q1 earnings. The stock delivered approximately 9% — roughly double the implied expectation. The structural reason is familiar: in sectors where regulatory and political narratives (ACA sensitivity, medical loss ratio risk) suppress analyst conviction, consensus estimates tend to cluster conservatively, compressing the implied move below what realised outcomes warrant. This is the clearest earnings IV mispricing of the week, and it functions as a screening template for the remainder of reporting season. Names where analyst dispersion is high, sector sentiment is divided, and the headline implied move is below the stock’s trailing average realised move on earnings are the candidates.

3. Tesla tonight — two frameworks, one vol question. Tesla reports Q1 earnings after tonight’s close. Options price approximately a 5% implied move; the stock’s historical average realised move on earnings is closer to 8%. Deliveries already disappointed (358K vs 372K), and direction post-earnings is genuinely difficult to call. Gamma is concentrated at $400 calls and $380 puts.

The central question is whether 5% implied is cheap relative to what Tesla typically delivers, or adequate given the already-digested delivery miss. If the former, a long straddle is one often-used approach — long gamma, long vega, profitable when realised vol exceeds implied. If the latter, a short iron condor is a possible alternative — short gamma, short vega, profitable when the stock stays inside a defined range. The two express opposite vol views; they cannot both be right on the same name on the same night. The 5%-versus-8% gap is the input each trader needs to form their own assessment.

Conclusion

The session opens materially differently from where Tuesday closed. The geopolitical binary has resolved constructively: oil is falling, equity futures are rallying, and the short-dated vol premium priced for a ceasefire expiry is crushing. What remains on the desk: the UNH earnings vol mispricing lesson applicable across the rest of reporting season, and Tesla’s after-close earnings where the straddle-versus-iron-condor framework on the 5%-versus-8% implied-versus-realised gap still stands. The Warsh/Fed uncertainty is the one unresolved structural overhang. The morning is risk-on — the question is how much of that is a genuine regime shift and how much is relief premium that fades by the afternoon.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Market Quick Take - 22 April 2026

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 06:25:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 22 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe slipped on geopolitics, while Asia held up better as Japan led and AI-linked names stayed in demand.
Volatility: VIX below 20, macro and earnings focus
Digital Assets: BTC and ETH firmer, ETHA inflows, IBIT outflow
Fixed Income: US treasury yields jumped on fresh rise in crude oil and Warsh nomination hearings, but eased back later.
Currencies: US dollar pushed back slightly lower after a modest rally on Iran War uncertainty and Kevin Warsh nomination hearings Tuesday
Commodities: Oil advance curbed by demand destruction; gold and silver rebound on ceasefire extension.
Macro events: Eurozone April Consumer Confidence & US 20-year bond auction

Macro headlines

US-Iran peace talks are stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed after Iran refused talks and vowed not to reopen the route while US naval interceptions continue. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, pending a unified Iranian proposal.
The impact of the Iran conflict on oil supply will linger for months, even if a deal restores shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to major oil traders. Market participants warn that rebalancing flows will take time, and that prolonged disruption could force prices higher - potentially to levels that risk tipping the global economy toward recession. With supply losses effectively locked in for now, the market is set to face increasing strain if a resolution is delayed, and some caution that transit through the Strait may not fully return to normal.
US retail sales rose 1.7% in March 2026, beating the 1.4% forecast and marking the fastest growth since March 2025, led by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts amid higher fuel prices. Most major categories posted gains, and core retail sales climbed 0.7%, above the 0.2% forecast.
Japan’s trade surplus widened to JPY 667.0 billion in March 2026 from JPY 529.8 billion a year earlier, but missed the JPY 1,106 billion forecast. Exports rose 11.7% to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion, outpacing imports, which grew 10.9% to JPY 10,336.3 billion amid strong domestic demand after late-2025 stimulus.
Fed Chair nominee Warsh said there is a short window to bring inflation down, the Fed’s balance sheet should be smaller and avoid long-term Treasuries, and his disagreements with Powell are purely policy-related. He denied reports Trump pushed him to cut rates, saying he never sought such commitments. Warsh added that inflation is improving but more work is needed and argued the Fed lacks legal authority to issue a digital currency and should not pursue one.
US private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs per week in the four weeks to April 4, 2026, up from a revised 40,250 and marking a fifth straight week of improving hiring and the highest pace since ADP’s weekly tracking began in September 2025.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK March CPI
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1400 – Eurozone April Consumer Confidence
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1700 – US Treasury to sell USD 13 billion 20-year Bonds
2300 – Australia Apr. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0030 – Japan Apr. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI

Earnings this week

Today: Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, ABB, Boeing, Boston Scientific
Thursday: Intel, American Express, KLA Corporation, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra Energy, Southern Copper, Newmont
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.02, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% to 24,259.96, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6% to 49,149.60, as early earnings optimism gave way to fresh Middle East nerves and higher oil. Stronger March retail sales helped a little, but much of the lift came from pricier fuel, which is not exactly the most cheerful kind of consumer strength. Apple fell 2.5% after naming John Ternus as Tim Cook’s successor, while UnitedHealth jumped 7% after beating estimates and raising its full-year outlook. Chevron added 1.5% as Brent rose 3.1%, leaving markets to watch geopolitics, oil, and Tesla earnings next.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9% to 616.03, the FTSE 100 dropped 1.1% to 10,498.09, the CAC 40 lost 1.1% to 8,235.72, and the DAX slipped 0.6% to 24,270.87, as investors worried that fragile US-Iran diplomacy could turn back into a fresh energy shock. Aerospace and defence led the pullback after a run of strong performance, while healthcare also weighed. Thales fell 5.9% after first-quarter sales missed forecasts, Safran and Rolls-Royce both dropped more than 6%, and Novo Nordisk lost 4.2%. Energy was the rare brighter pocket, up 0.4% on firmer crude, with the market now looking toward next week’s European Central Bank meeting.
Asia: Asia held up better in the latest full session, with Japan doing the heavy lifting as the Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to 59,349.17, India’s Sensex gained 1.0% to 79,273.33, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan index added 0.8%. Hopes that diplomacy could still stop a wider energy shock supported risk appetite, while artificial intelligence demand kept technology names in favour. In Tokyo, Tokyo Electron climbed 4.3%, Advantest rose 1.8%, and SoftBank gained 4.2%. In Hong Kong, printed circuit board maker Victory Giant jumped 50.1% in its market debut, a reminder that investors still have a healthy appetite for AI infrastructure stories when the price tag feels right.

Volatility

Volatility remains elevated enough to matter, but not yet at levels that signal outright stress. The VIX closed Tuesday at 19.50, keeping it just below the key 20 level as markets balance three near-term drivers: the Iran ceasefire extension, Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation process, and a heavy earnings calendar led by Tesla after Wednesday’s close. Tuesday’s stronger U.S. retail sales data reinforced the idea that growth remains resilient, but also keeps the interest rate outlook in focus. For now, the market tone suggests investors are still engaged, but increasingly sensitive to both macro headlines and earnings outcomes.
Expected move: Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying roughly a 101-point move for the rest of this week, or about 1.43% into the 24 April expiry, from an SPX level around 7064.
Indicator of the day: Today’s SPX expiry chain shows a clear upside skew near the money, with same-day call implied volatility trading above comparable puts. This suggests investors are currently paying more for upside participation than for immediate downside protection.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are firmer, broadly reflecting a cautious improvement in risk appetite. Bitcoin is trading around $77,967 and Ethereum around $2,394, with altcoins such as XRP and Solana also moving higher. However, the picture remains mixed beneath the surface.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $39.3 million of inflows on 21 April, while spot ether ETFs added $43.4 million, including a notable $37.0 million into ETHA. At the same time, IBIT saw a $6.6 million outflow, highlighting that demand remains selective rather than broad-based.
Crypto-linked equities continue to lag, with Coinbase and MicroStrategy weaker in the latest session, suggesting that equity investors remain more cautious than spot crypto participants.

Fixed Income

US treasury yields rose Tuesday, in part perhaps on a less dovish stance than anticipated from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh in his first nomination hearing before a Senate committee yesterday, but as well on the fresh rise in crude oil prices on the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks. The benchmark 2-year treasury rose as much as eight basis points to the 3.80% area before dropping back to 3.76% as Trump unilaterally declared an extension of the ceasefire. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose as high as 4.31% before pulling back toward 4.28%.

Commodities

Oil prices continue to whipsaw with Brent holding below USD 100 after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, even as peace talks remain on hold due to Tehran’s refusal to negotiate while the US maintains its naval blockade which may force Tehran to curb production within 15 days according to JPM. The result is a continued and severe and potentially growing disruption to flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed
Higher oil and fuel prices have, according to Vitol, already triggered around 5 million b/d of demand destruction. Combined with China actively reselling barrels, the impact on crude prices has so far been contained. Market stress, however, remains evident in the refined products space, where shortages of diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks continue to underpin prices.
Gold trades firmer after a two-day decline, as Trump’s extension of the ceasefire reduces the immediate risk of military escalation - and with it the threat of a further inflationary oil price spike - while also weighing on the dollar. Until a clearer path toward a peace deal emerges, gold and silver are likely to remain in competition with the dollar for direction, leaving prices rangebound for now.

Currencies

The US dollar rallied Tuesday on Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s slightly less dovish than anticipated stance at nomination hearings before a Senate committee, especially as he claimed that he made no promises to cut rates to President Trump and as he spoke in favor of Fed independence. Higher crude oil prices on Iran war ceasefire uncertainties also weighed before this issue was later cleared. EURUSD fell as low as 1.1719 before rising back above 1.1750 in Asian trading hours Wednesday. Elsewhere, AUDUSD rebounded smartly to above 0.7172 early Wednesday after dipping as low as 0.7130 Tuesday.
The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona trade near or at multiweek highs versus the euro, with EURNOK having dropped well below 11.00 this week to its lowest daily close Tuesday in over three years, while EURSEK is close to 10.75 and the lowest close in the last five weeks, and still has yet to reverse the upside triggered in part by the war in Iran, which broke out with that pair trading near 10.67.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Mag 7 earnings preview: Can Big Tech turn AI spending into earnings growth?

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 05:30:00 Z

Key points:

This is the next big test for the AI trade. Five of the Magnificent 7 report within two days, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on 29 April 2026, and Apple on 30 April 2026.
The debate has shifted from overbuilding to returns. Earlier concerns around excessive AI data-centre buildout have eased, but investors now want proof that capex is translating into revenue, margins, and monetisation.
The bar is different for each name. Microsoft and Amazon need to prove cloud and AI demand are still accelerating, Alphabet and Meta need clearer monetisation, and Apple needs to defend its premium with resilience rather than hype.

The AI story is entering a more demanding phase. Earlier this year, investors worried hyperscalers were building too much AI infrastructure, too quickly, with capex rising sharply and the revenue flywheel still unclear. That tone has shifted. AI stocks have regained momentum into first-quarter earnings as overbuilding fears have eased, compute shortages remain real, and newer model momentum has helped revive confidence in demand.

This earnings week matters because the market is no longer rewarding AI ambition alone. It now wants evidence that spending is still producing durable growth, stronger earnings, and clearer returns on investment. The four hyperscalers alone are expected to spend about $645 billion in 2026, up roughly 56% from a year earlier. Investors can still forgive big spending. They may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

Microsoft

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
EPS expected: about $4.04, up roughly 17% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $81.4 billion, up roughly 16% year-on-year

Capex: Microsoft is on track to spend close to $146 billion on AI and cloud infrastructure in fiscal 2026, among the highest across hyperscalers, with expectations for fiscal 2027 capex moving closer to $170 billion. That leaves little room for vague messaging. The market will want reassurance that this level of investment is still being matched by demand, monetisation, and operating leverage.

What to watch: Microsoft remains the market’s cleanest AI execution story, but after lagging peers it now needs to show that heavy investment is producing visible commercial traction.

Azure: Intelligent Cloud revenue is expected at about $34.2 billion, up 28% y/y, with Azure growth around 38%. Healthy cloud migrations and strong AI spending remain the key supports. AI contribution is expected at about 21.4%.
Cloud margins: Microsoft Cloud gross margin is expected at 66.23%, down from 69% in Q3 FY2025, reinforcing the view that this phase of AI growth remains infrastructure-heavy.
Commercial remaining performance obligation: This remains a key forward-looking demand indicator as Microsoft scales spending aggressively.
Copilot: Monetisation may be improving sequentially, but adoption still looks challenging. The question is whether Copilot is becoming meaningful commercial traction rather than just strategic narrative.

Stock price and valuation view: Microsoft has been the worst performer among the hyperscalers year-to-date. That leaves the stock looking less crowded than peers, but at roughly 22x forward earnings, it is not cheap enough to ignore execution risk. A strong Azure print and improving Copilot traction would reinforce the case that Microsoft remains one of the market’s highest-quality AI compounders.

Bull case: Azure growth lands at or above the high end of expectations, AI contribution continues to rise, and Copilot monetisation shows clearer progress alongside confident commentary on demand.

Bear case: Azure growth merely meets expectations, Copilot adoption remains sluggish, and capex stays very heavy, reviving concern that spending is running ahead of monetisation.

Alphabet

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.83
Revenue expected: about $107 billion, up roughly 11% year-on-year

Capex: Alphabet’s spending plans remain one of the key debates around the stock. The current expectation is that management maintains its FY2026 capex forecast of $175-$185 billion, with limited forward commentary on FY2027. Even so, Bloomberg estimates point to capex moving closer to $200 billion in FY2027, which shows why investors will remain highly sensitive to any signal on duration, discipline, and expected returns. The market has become more comfortable with elevated AI investment, but only because Google Cloud momentum has improved and the broader monetisation story is starting to look more credible.

What to watch: Alphabet now needs to show it is becoming a broader AI platform story without damaging the profitability of Search.

Search: Revenue is expected at about $59 billion, up 16% y/y, with a modest deceleration from the prior quarter.
Google Cloud Platform: Likely the standout metric, with growth potentially in the 50% range y/y, driven by broader AI workloads.
YouTube and advertising: Revenue is expected at about $10 billion, up 12% y/y, supported by healthy ad demand.
Margins and AI returns: Rising capex means investors will keep watching whether monetisation is visible enough to preserve operating discipline.

Stock price and valuation view: Alphabet increasingly looks like a catch-up AI trade. There is room for further re-rating if management shows AI is widening the franchise rather than just defending it. But that means the quarter needs to deliver more than a clean beat.

Bull case: Google Cloud surprises to the upside, Search remains resilient, and management shows confidence that AI is supporting growth rather than simply increasing costs.

Bear case: Search softens, capex rises further, or Cloud growth is not strong enough to convince investors that returns on AI spending are improving.

Amazon

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.11
Revenue expected: about $177.2 billion, up roughly 14% year-on-year

Capex: Amazon’s investment cycle has become much more central to the stock’s narrative as AWS and the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem take on greater importance. Amazon is expected to reiterate its full-year 2026 capex guide of $200 billion, which would make it the largest spender among the AI hyperscalers. Consensus for full-year 2026 capex stands at about $195.9 billion, while Bloomberg consensus points to roughly $209 billion in 2027. On 21 April 2026, Amazon also announced an additional $5 billion investment in Anthropic, with potential for $20 billion more over time, underscoring how quickly enterprise AI demand is scaling. The market has been comfortable backing that buildout because AWS remains one of the clearest beneficiaries of rising AI demand. But comfort is conditional. Heavy capex still needs to be matched by visible acceleration in cloud growth and healthy margins.

What to watch: Amazon may be the most important read-through for the broader AI infrastructure trade because AWS sits at the centre of enterprise and developer demand for compute.

AWS: Revenue is estimated at about $36.6 billion, up 25% y/y in constant currency, driven by robust AI demand, increased Claude usage, and expanded cloud commitments.
Advertising Services: Revenue is estimated at about $16.9 billion, up 20.8% y/y in constant currency.
Retail and operating discipline: Investors will watch whether retail margins hold up as Amazon balances core commerce and AI-related investment.
AI ecosystem and commentary: The market will want reassurance that Amazon is not just spending to keep pace, but building an ecosystem that supports durable revenue growth.

Stock price and valuation view: Amazon has been the clear momentum leader in the group, with the stock up about 20% month-to-date and 8% year-to-date, making it the strongest performer among the hyperscalers. That strength reflects growing confidence in AWS, the AI infrastructure story, and the broader Anthropic ecosystem. At roughly 23x forward earnings, the stock is still carrying a premium, which means expectations are not low. If management delivers confidence on cloud acceleration and the broader AI ecosystem, Amazon can continue to justify that premium. But if AWS is merely in line while capex remains very heavy, the market may start asking harder questions about whether Amazon is investing like a winner but reporting like a laggard.

Bull case: AWS growth meets or exceeds elevated expectations, advertising remains strong, margins stay healthy, and management commentary reinforces the view that AI demand is driving durable cloud growth.

Bear case: Heavy spending continues but AWS growth is only in line, creating concern that Amazon is investing aggressively without enough acceleration to justify it.

Apple

Date of reporting: 30 April 2026
EPS expected: about $1.96, up roughly 18% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $109.3 billion, up roughly 15% year-on-year

Capex: Apple is the least capex-intensive AI story in this group, which makes it a useful contrast. Capital expenditure is estimated at about $13.5 billion in fiscal 2026 and $15.4 billion in fiscal 2027, far below the hyperscalers. Investors are not looking to Apple for a hyperscaler-style infrastructure buildout. Instead, the focus is on whether Apple can maintain earnings durability, service-led monetisation, and product ecosystem resilience while the market increasingly rewards AI-linked growth elsewhere.

What to watch: Apple is the least direct AI infrastructure trade of the group, so the focus is less on AI hype and more on resilience.

Services: Revenue is estimated at about $30.4 billion, up 14%.
iPhone: Still the key driver of sentiment, especially around demand and upgrade behaviour.
Mac: Mac sales could surprise positively, helped by stronger Mac Mini demand.
Greater China: Investors will want to know whether recent improvement is sustainable.
Margins and product mix: Apple does not need explosive growth, but it does need to defend premium profitability.

Stock price and valuation view: Apple is not the cleanest way to play the AI enthusiasm driving the rest of the group, but it remains one of the market’s clearest durability stories. Even so, the stock is still down about 2% year-to-date, which suggests investors are not fully convinced that steadiness alone is enough in a market that is rewarding more direct AI exposure. At roughly 28x forward earnings, Apple is also trading at a richer multiple than most of its mega-cap peers. That means the bar is not low. The company does not need a dramatic AI reveal next week, but it does need to remind investors why it still deserves that premium as a mega-cap compounder. If Services remains strong, margins hold, and China looks more stable, that may be enough. But if the forward message feels too incremental, the stock risks looking expensive as well as unexciting.

Bull case: Services growth remains firm, margins hold up, and management signals that China trends are improving rather than merely bouncing.

Bear case: The quarter is acceptable but the forward message feels incremental, especially if Services growth slows or China remains uneven.

What matters across all five

The key question is whether demand for AI products and services is still strong enough to justify the capex wave now rolling through Big Tech. Microsoft and Amazon will shape confidence in cloud and AI infrastructure. Alphabet and Meta will test whether AI spending is improving monetisation rather than just inflating costs. Apple will show whether mega-cap resilience still holds even outside the pure AI buildout story.

In short, the market can still forgive big spending. It may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Apple Inc. Apple Microsoft Corp. Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Corp. Amazon.com Amazon Facebook Inc Amazon.com Alphabet Meta Platforms Inc.

Apple: an era ends, but what comes next?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tim Cook turned Apple into a compounding machine through iPhone scale, services growth, and massive share buybacks.

John Ternus now inherits a stronger Apple, but also one that needs a clearer hardware and artificial intelligence story.

The next era will be judged less by efficiency and more by whether Apple can still create products that feel new and necessary.

The end of one Apple, the start of another

Apple is one of the most successful companies ever built. It started in a garage in 1976 with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Now, after more than a decade under Tim Cook, the company is preparing for another leadership change, and that makes this more than a corporate handover. It is a moment that invites investors to ask a bigger question: what does the next version of Apple look like in an age shaped by artificial intelligence, new hardware, and much higher expectations?

Cook took over as chief executive officer, or CEO, in 2011 after Jobs. Since then, some critics have argued that Apple has become less radical and less inventive than it was in the Jobs years. That debate will probably never go away. What is much harder to debate is the shareholder outcome. Under Cook, Apple has delivered one of the great stock market runs of the modern era.

By September, John Ternus, Apple’s current hardware chief, is set to take over as CEO. That points to the start of a new phase for the company, one where the old “think different” spirit may need to find a more modern shape. Apple now has to prove that it can adapt to the artificial intelligence race not only with software, but also with products people actually want to use.

The Tim Cook years were less flashy, but hugely effective

From a shareholder perspective, Tim Cook’s time at the top has been extraordinary. Since he became CEO in 2011, Apple’s share price has risen by more than 1,800%. Over the same period, the S&P 500, the broad US stock market index, returned a little over 450%. That is not just outperformance. That is domination with very neat spreadsheets.

The financial story behind that success is quite straightforward. Since 2011, the iPhone has remained the core engine of the business. Apple generated just over 40 billion USD of iPhone revenue in 2011. Today, that figure is above 200 billion USD a year. Few products in corporate history have scaled with the same consistency, and even fewer have remained so central to a business for so long.

That matters because Cook’s Apple did not need to reinvent the wheel every other year. Instead, it turned one hugely successful product into a global ecosystem, then kept improving, expanding, and monetising that ecosystem with remarkable discipline. It is not the most romantic version of innovation, but investors rarely complain when discipline comes wrapped in compounding.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

The quiet force behind the share price

There is another reason Apple’s stock has done so well under Cook, and it is a little less glamorous than a new product launch. Apple has generated enormous amounts of free cash flow, which is the cash left after the company has funded the investments needed to run and grow the business.

From 2010 to 2022, Apple’s annual free cash flow rose from a little over 20 billion USD to more than 110 billion USD. That gave management unusual flexibility. Apple could keep investing in the business, while also returning a huge amount of capital to shareholders through share buybacks.

Those buybacks matter more than many people realise. When a company reduces its share count over time, each remaining share represents a slightly larger claim on the business. In Apple’s case, that effect has been significant. Someone who owned 1% of Apple in 2012 would, with the same number of shares today, own roughly 1.8% of the company. That is a powerful tailwind, even if it does not make for a very exciting keynote presentation.

So, from an investor’s perspective, the Cook formula has been clear. Scale the iPhone. Build a larger and richer services layer around it. Generate huge free cash flow. Use part of that cash to buy back stock. It is a very effective model, even if it lacks the theatre of the Jobs years.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in USD billions.

Why the leadership change matters now

This is exactly why the transition to John Ternus matters. Apple’s problem is not that the Cook model failed. It is that the next decade may require a different balance. Under Cook, Apple became a master of optimisation. Under Ternus, it may need to become more ambitious again, especially in hardware.

That does not mean Apple has produced nothing new in recent years. AirPods and Apple Watch have both been successful, and they are far from trivial. But it is also true that several bigger hardware ambitions never quite became reality. Projects such as an Apple car or a television set never turned into major products, while the recently launched Vision Pro augmented reality, or AR, headset is still far from proving itself as a mass-market success.

Apple has also pushed more software-led extensions into the ecosystem, including Apple TV and Apple CarPlay. These are useful additions, but they do not fully answer the harder question investors are now asking. Where is the next major hardware category, and how does Apple make it feel essential in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence?

The appointment of Ternus, who currently leads hardware, suggests Apple understands that question very well. The company may decide that the next phase requires a little less emphasis on buybacks and a little more emphasis on investment. Compared with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, Apple has spent far less on data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure. That may continue, but the Ternus era could also mark the beginning of a more assertive Apple, one that invests more heavily in future devices, tighter hardware and software integration, and what it calls Apple Intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in billions.

The real question for investors

For long-term investors, this is what makes the story timely and relevant. Apple is not trying to recover from weakness. It is trying to evolve from a position of enormous strength. That is a much better problem to have, but it is still a real test.

The next chapter will not be judged only on whether Apple can keep selling iPhones and expanding services. It will be judged on whether the company can still surprise people, shape new consumer habits, and turn artificial intelligence into something more tangible than a feature list. In other words, Apple now has to prove that operational excellence and bold product vision can still live in the same company at the same time.

That is what makes this leadership shift so interesting. One era ends with Apple richer, larger, and more efficient than ever. The next one begins with a simpler challenge, at least on paper: to show that the world’s most polished machine can still dream a little.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

What to look for in Warsh nomination hearings as US-Iran talks also in focus.

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 11:22:00 Z

The Powell Fed era is drawing to a close.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Is the SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) meltdown overdone?
It is, according to Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research, a guest on the Monetary Matters podcast, arguing that there are key moats in place that will prevent the profound disruption the market is anticipating. This could be very interesting for relative valuations even in a sideways to slightly negative overall market if the market has been too quick to throw the SaaS babies out with the bath water.

The latest evidence of US urgency to rebuild its supply chains and infrastructure.
Craig Tindale weighs in with some comments on a new Presidential Determination announcement from the White House, the latest sign of the urgency of US policy awareness that national defense is everywhere in the foundations of the economy, like in grid infrastructure, where it must up its game to compete with China and build out AI.

FT with startling demographic projections on China (and other countries)
Asking the great question: Will China get richer before it gets much, much smaller?

What is the future of work if AI displaces so many current jobs?
The Ghosts of Electricity substack has some very interesting answers, using a an anecdote of Starbucks reversing its own automation initiatives because they was bad for business as a starting point. In short, it’s about relationships as AI can replace our productivity, but not our humanity. The post also links toa widely linked longer form paper on the same subject.

EU regulators trying to disrupt the doom-scrolling algorithms
A Bloomberg columnist covers the EU commission’s Digital Fairness Act, which could have profound implications for some “social” media business models.

If you don’t like Palantir CEO Alex Karp, you will very much like this
A tour de force vivisection of what the author Hamilton Nolan calls “the closest thing we have to Dr. Evil.”

Chart of the Day - Steel Dynamics (STLD)

I don’t follow steel companies very closely, but worth noting that one of the top US steel companies, Steel Dynamics, reached a new all-time high yesterday. It is a more than ten-bagger from the 2020 pandemic lows. The company reported earnings yesterday after the close. (The shares are up another 1% or so after reporting, sorry for missing that detail on the podcast - the strong session yesterday was due in part to the strong results of steel industry rival Cleveland Cliffs). Steel Dynamics also has a growing and considerable aluminum recycling business. Nucor is somewhat larger US steel producer than Steel Dynamics and also rushed to a new all-time high yesterday. Note the link above on the Presidential Determination on US grid infrastructure: one wonders if the general underinvestment in US infrastructure, the current move to fast-track US re-industrialization and grid infrastructure, as well as the focus on sourcing efforts to address the problem within the United States might result in rising demand for steel from here for years to come?

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Oil spikes, equities hold - 21 April 2026

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:48:00 Z

WTI crude surged nearly 7% after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel, yet the S&P 500 fell just 0.24% and the VIX held below 20 as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline arrives today.

Options Brief - Oil spikes, equities hold - 21 April 2026

Three signals from one session: a Hormuz binary, an Apple succession, and a KOSPI record — all landing on the same desk before Tuesday’s open.

Monday delivered more than one story. The US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel on Sunday sent WTI crude surging nearly 7%, yet equity markets absorbed it with near-composure — the S&P 500 fell just 0.24%, VIX spot closed at 18.87 while front-month VIX futures settled at 20.55, and the Russell 2000 hit a fresh closing record. After the close, Apple confirmed Tim Cook’s departure and named hardware veteran John Ternus as CEO from September 1, making today’s open the first regular-session price discovery on the transition. Overnight, the KOSPI closed at a record 6,388.47 (+2.72%), powered by AI chip demand, with SK Hynix surging ahead of Thursday’s Q1 earnings report. Each story carries a specific options angle, and each resolves within 72 hours.

Headline driver

A seized ship, a CEO change, and a stock market record — compressed into 18 hours.

The primary macro driver was the Hormuz escalation. On Sunday, the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman; Tehran threatened retaliation; the Strait — which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply — remained closed for a second straight month. The US–Iran ceasefire formally expires today. Despite the severity, the S&P 500 declined just 0.24% to 7,109.14, the Dow was nearly unchanged at 49,442.56, and the Russell 2000 scored a new closing record at 2,792.96 (+0.58%) — a clean read on how the market is segmenting geopolitical risk by domestic versus international exposure.

After the close, Apple announced that Tim Cook will become executive chairman and John Ternus — SVP of Hardware Engineering and a 25-year company veteran — will assume the CEO role on September 1. The board was unanimous; the process was structured; Cook is staying in an oversight capacity. Apple shares closed at $273.05 (up 1.04% during the regular session), then slipped approximately 1% in after-hours trade as investors processed the transition. Today’s open is the first proper price discovery.

Overnight, the KOSPI hit an all-time intraday high of 6,355, surpassing the previous record of 6,347 set on February 27. Samsung rose more than 2% to 220,000 won; SK Hynix jumped 3.86% to 1.21 million won, itself a new record. The catalyst is high-bandwidth memory demand from AI infrastructure buildouts — and SK Hynix reports Q1 earnings on Thursday, April 23.

Market snapshot – Monday 20 April 2026

Oil surged; equities shrugged; small caps hit a record; vol spot held below 20 while futures crossed it.

S&P 500 (SPX): 7,109.14 (–0.24%)
Nasdaq 100 (NDX): 26,590.34 (–0.31%)
Russell 2000 (RUT): 2,792.96 (+0.58%) — new closing record
Dow Jones (DJI): 49,442.56 (–0.01%)
WTI crude oil futures: +6.87% — largest single-session gain in recent weeks
VIX spot: 18.87 Monday close; 19.13 (+1.38%) Tuesday — approaching but below 20
Front-month VIX futures: 20.55 — already above the systematic trigger threshold
Apple (AAPL): $273.05 regular close (+1.04%); fell ~1% after hours on CEO announcement
KOSPI: 6,388.47 (+2.72%) — new all-time closing record

Market pulse: A 7% oil move, a CEO departure at a $3 trillion company, and a foreign market record — and VIX spot closed at 18.87. But the futures market was already through 20. The options market is pricing three distinct risks in three distinct places.

Options angle

Three setups, three instruments, three catalysts — all within 72 hours.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

1. Hormuz binary (WTI / XLE). VIX spot closed Monday at 18.87 and sits at 19.13 this morning — below 20. But front-month VIX futures are at 20.55, meaning the futures market is already pricing above the threshold that triggers systematic vol-buying flows. That spot–futures divergence is itself a signal: the equity derivatives market is more stressed than the headline VIX number implies. Energy implied volatility spiked materially on Monday as the Hormuz closure shifted from noise to confirmed disruption. A short-dated strangle on WTI or XLE into today’s ceasefire resolution offers defined-risk exposure to a large move; Friday’s precedent — WTI down more than 10% on Strait-open news — is the magnitude reference.

2. AAPL CEO transition (AAPL). The Apple succession landed after Monday’s close, so today is the first regular-session test. September 1 — the confirmed transition date — creates a known event horizon in options term structure: September-expiry AAPL options will carry a “new CEO premium” through the summer. For those who read the handoff as orderly (unanimous board, Cook staying as executive chairman, five-month runway), selling near-term elevated implied vol is defensible. For those focused on the AI and Services strategy gap that a hardware-focused CEO inherits, near-dated puts or a put spread offer defined-risk downside protection while the market forms a view. Wall Street’s consensus target of approximately $292 provides a strike reference for either structure.

3. KOSPI record / EWY (SK Hynix earnings Thursday). The KOSPI closed Tuesday’s Asian session at a record 6,388.47 (+2.72%), well above the previous all-time high of 6,347 set on February 27. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF is the primary US-listed options vehicle for this theme, with Samsung and SK Hynix representing approximately 45% of the fund. The fundamental driver — AI high-bandwidth memory demand — is structural, but the SK Hynix Q1 earnings on Thursday are the sharpest near-term catalyst. EWY holders can sell covered calls to collect premium on the extended rally; directional bulls can use a bull call spread into Thursday’s earnings for defined-risk upside. The Hormuz ceasefire outcome today is a moderating factor: both setups are exposed to the same EM risk-appetite binary.

Conclusion

Tuesday opens with three options setups on the desk simultaneously: a geopolitical binary in energy derivatives, a CEO transition event horizon in AAPL, and an AI-driven record in EWY with a hard earnings catalyst on Thursday. The common thread is a VIX spot at 19.13 with front-month futures already at 20.55 — the surface is more stressed than the headline number suggests. The ceasefire outcome is the event that tests it first.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

From chatbots to chip racks: where AI profits may actually end up

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Amazon’s Anthropic deal shows AI funding is increasingly about chips, cloud and power, not just software.
ASML and TSMC suggest the AI build-out is still very much alive, and scarce capacity still holds pricing power.
Nvidia still matters, but custom chips and long contracts are making the “picks and shovels” trade more specialised.

A chatbot writes the poem, answers the email, and gets all the applause. The bill, however, often lands somewhere else. That is what makes Amazon’s expanded Anthropic partnership so interesting. On 20 April 2026, Amazon announced it would invest up to USD 25 billion in Anthropic, while Anthropic committed to spend more than USD 100 billion over the next decade on Amazon Web Services technology. This is less a venture funding headline than a long-term capacity reservation dressed in startup clothing.

The funding round that is really a utility contract

The most revealing part of the Amazon-Anthropic announcement is not the cheque. It is the plumbing. Anthropic said it would secure up to 5 gigawatts of current and future Trainium chip capacity, expand inference, meaning the running of models after training, in Asia and Europe, and keep deepening its use of Amazon’s cloud stack. Amazon also said more than 100,000 customers already run Claude models on Amazon Web Services. That begins to sound less like backing a promising artificial intelligence lab and more like signing up a large industrial customer for the next decade.

That matters because AI is becoming capital-intensive in a very old-fashioned way. Software still matters, of course. But once demand scales, the winners are often the firms that own scarce inputs, not the ones with the flashiest demo. In AI, those scarce inputs are compute, advanced chips, networking, cooling, and the data-centre capacity needed to keep the whole system running. In other words, the chatbot may charm the user, but the rack gets paid.

The glamour is on the screen, but the cash may sit behind the curtain

The recent updates from ASML and TSMC make that harder to ignore. ASML lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as customers pressed ahead with expansion plans tied to artificial intelligence demand. A day later, TSMC raised its full-year growth outlook and pointed to capital spending landing at the high end of its range. That is not the tone of an industry stepping back for breath. It is the tone of builders asking for more concrete, more steel and a bigger site.

That is the more useful investor lens. Artificial intelligence is no longer only a software story. It is increasingly an industrial build-out, complete with bottlenecks, lead times and supply constraints. The visible part is still the chatbot, the assistant and the model demo. The less visible part is the factory, the foundry, the chip rack and the power bill. When demand runs ahead of supply, the companies that control key equipment and production capacity can end up with steadier economics than the businesses closer to the user.

Nvidia still sits at the centre of this world. Its graphics processing units, or GPUs, remain the benchmark for training advanced models. But the market is also shifting towards inference, which is the running of models after they have been trained. That part of the market places a bigger premium on speed, efficiency and cost. It opens the door to alternatives such as Google’s tensor processing units, or TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium chips and other custom designs built for narrower, more specific tasks. The artificial intelligence race is not moving away from infrastructure. It is moving deeper into it.

Not all shovels look the same anymore

This is where the old “just buy the shovel sellers” line starts to get a bit lazy. The shovels are no longer generic. Broadcom has signed a deal through 2031 to develop Google’s custom artificial intelligence chips and separately agreed to provide Anthropic access to about 3.5 gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing capacity from 2027. Google is also exploring additional chip designs with Marvell, including a memory processing unit and a new tensor processing unit aimed at running models more efficiently.

That changes the investor map. The earlier version of the AI trade was simple: Nvidia sells powerful chips, everyone queues up, end of story. The newer version is more crowded, more specialised and more strategic. Some customers want to reduce dependence on outside suppliers. Some want custom chips that lower costs for specific tasks. Some want tighter bundles that combine chips, software and cloud infrastructure into one sticky package. The profit pool may still sit with the picks and shovels, but now the tools are bespoke, the contracts are longer and switching costs may matter as much as the silicon itself. Slightly less poetic, perhaps, but much more useful.

Saxo Bank in-house framework.

Risks worth watching before the hard hats get carried away

There are still a few obvious traps. First, capacity can stay scarce until it suddenly does not. If hyperscalers start trimming capital expenditure, or if enterprise demand proves slower than expected, today’s shortages can become tomorrow’s overbuild. Second, custom chips are not magically safer than standard ones. They still face delays, software headaches and design missteps. The fact that Google has been working to make TPUs easier to use with popular developer tools is a useful reminder that hardware alone is not enough. Third, the whole chain remains concentrated. If a small number of foundries, toolmakers and cloud platforms control the bottlenecks, any disruption can travel far and fast.

The investor playbook

Separate the model winners from the infrastructure toll collectors. The overlap is real, but it is not always neat.
Watch hyperscaler earnings for comments on capacity, utilisation and inference, not just headline artificial intelligence revenue.
Treat custom chips as a sign of specialisation, not proof that Nvidia is finished.
Follow the full bundle: chips, cloud, software tools, and access to power and data-centre space.

Where the money may really land

The simplest way to read this moment is also the most useful. AI still looks like magic on the screen, but it increasingly behaves like heavy industry underneath. The Amazon-Anthropic deal says the real contest is not just who makes the smartest model. It is also who can secure the compute, book the capacity, and keep the infrastructure busy for years. That does not make the chatbot unimportant. It just means the economics may end up favouring the firms that own the rails behind it. In this phase of the AI race, the cleverest answer may still come from a model, but the fattest invoice may come from the machine room.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Market Quick Take - 21 April 2026

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 06:45:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 21 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Asia rose, while Europe fell and Wall Street paused, as Iran headlines pushed oil higher but did not break risk appetite.
Volatility: VIX stays below 20, Iran talks vs risk, earnings + retail sale
Digital Assets: BTC steady, ETH softer, IBIT/ETHA weak, COIN/MSTR strong
Fixed Income: Treasury yields steady near lower end of recent range ahead of Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh.
Currencies: USD slightly firmer after Monday rally was rejected. All eyes on Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh. NZD firms on hot CPI print.
Commodities: Oil and gold ease ahead of US–Iran talks; surging China import supports silver
Macro events: UK Employment Data, US Mar. Retail Sales, US Fed Chair Nomination Hearings for Kevin Warsh

Macro headlines

US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh will testify in his first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today at 1400 GMT. Warsh will make opening remarks followed by a series of questions from Senate lawmakers – with questions on Fed independence and President Trump’s pressure to cut rates considered the hottest topics. Warsh has also argued in favour of cutting the Fed’s balance sheet size, which is at odds with the recent resumption of regular Fed treasury purchases that resumed in December. It is unsure whether his nomination can be approved by the time Fed Chair Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15 as Republican Thom Tillis has vowed he will not vote to approve Warsh until the US Department of Justice drops the case against Powell for supposedly lying about the use of funds related to the renovation of Fed buildings.
Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, exceeding a forecast 2.9% and above the RBNZ target lifting bets on a July interest-rate hike. The Reserve Bank provisionally estimates inflation will accelerate to 4.2% in the current quarter, with local economists reckoning the CPI could push even higher and stay above the top of the target for some time
Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up.
Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Feb. Average Weekly earnings
0600 – UK Feb. ILO Unemployment Rate / Employment Change
0600 – UK Mar. Claimant Count Rate
0600 – UK Mar. Jobless Claims Change
0900 – Germany Apr. ZEW Survey
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending Apr 4)
1230 – US Apr. Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing survey
1230 – US Mar. Retail Sales
1400 – US Fed Chair Nominee Warsh to testify in nomination hearing
1500 – South African Reserve Bank Policy Review
1830 – US Fed’s Waller to Speak on Fed Operations
2350 – Japan Mar. Trade Balance

Earnings this week

Today: Tuesday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, Intuitive Surgical, RTX, 3M, Danaher, D.R. Horton, Interactive Brokers, Northrop Grumman
Wednesday: Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, ABB, Boston Scientific
Thursday: Intel, American Express, KLA Corporation, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra Energy, Southern Copper, Newmont
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,109.14, the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% to 26,590.34, and the Dow was nearly flat at 49,442.56, as the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil higher and ended a run of record closes. Communication services led the pullback, with Meta down 2.6% and Netflix off 2.6%, while investors shifted toward energy and waited for a heavier earnings week. After the bell, Amazon rose 3.1% after saying it could invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic, while Alaska Air fell 4.1% after pulling its full-year profit outlook on fuel-cost pressure and Apple dipped modestly after naming John Ternus as Tim Cook’s successor.
Europe: The STOXX 600 fell 0.8% to 621.46, the Euro STOXX 50 dropped 1.2% to 5,982.63, Germany’s DAX lost 1.2% to 24,417.80, and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 10,609.08, as doubts over U.S.-Iran talks and higher crude prices hit Europe’s more energy-sensitive market. Travel and leisure led losses, with easyJet, Lufthansa, Ryanair and IAG down between 2.2% and 3.1%, while Rolls-Royce fell 3.7% and Safran lost 3.9%. The other side of the oil trade was kinder to BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, which rose between 1.8% and 2.9%. Renishaw jumped 6.2% after raising forecasts, and investors will now watch whether earnings confirm that higher energy costs are starting to bite.
Asia: Asian markets ended firmer on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.6% to 58,824.89, the Topix up 0.4% to 3,777.02, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.8% to 26,361.07, and South Korea’s Kospi up 0.4% to 6,219.09, as investors balanced Iran worries against AI demand and still-solid tech sentiment. SK Hynix rose 3.4% to a record high, while Alibaba added 0.4%, Tencent climbed 2.4%, and Xiaomi rose 1.0% in Hong Kong as traders stayed with big tech and memory winners. Asia looked through geopolitics more calmly than Europe did, but the next test is whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting.

Volatility

Volatility remains elevated but controlled, with markets reacting to geopolitics without showing signs of stress. The VIX closed at 18.87 (+1.39) on Monday after briefly pushing higher on renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, while early Tuesday sentiment improved as signs of potential talks in Pakistan helped oil ease and equities stabilise. Investors are now balancing geopolitical risk with a heavy earnings calendar and today’s US retail sales, which could shift the near-term macro narrative.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying an expected move of about 94 points (1.32%) into Friday, with roughly 36–37 points (~0.52%) priced for today’s expiry.
From today’s SPX options chain, near-the-money calls are trading at slightly higher implied volatility than puts, pointing to a mild upside skew and limited demand for immediate downside protection.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are holding up well despite macro uncertainty, reinforcing the idea that crypto remains linked to risk sentiment but is not leading it. Bitcoin trades around $75,800–75,900, while Ethereum holds near $2,310–2,320, both slightly softer on the day after stabilising from earlier geopolitical-driven volatility.
Among listed products, IBIT ($43.25, -1.57%) and ETHA ($17.62, -4.13%) are under some pressure, even as broader crypto equities such as COIN and MSTR move higher, suggesting continued preference for higher-beta exposure. Flow data reinforces this split: upside participation remains concentrated in crypto-linked equities, while ETFs continue to carry hedging and income overlays, particularly through put buying and call overwriting. Altcoins like Solana and XRP are modestly higher and continue to act as sentiment amplifiers, but the key driver remains macro—specifically whether Iran tensions ease and allow risk appetite to rebuild further.

Fixed Income

US treasury yields remained steady to slightly lower Tuesday and in early Wednesday trading ahead of nomination hearings for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield dipped about a basis point to 3.72% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield was steady near the lowest daily closes of the cycle at 4.25%.
Japan’s Government Bond Yields fell once again Tuesday as front-end yields eyed the lowest close in more than three weeks. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped more than a basis point to just below 1.35% while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell another basis point to 2.38%, eyeing the lowest close in nine trading days after an intraday high water mark of 2.495% on April 13.

Commodities

Oil prices slipped after a relatively quiet, range-bound Monday, with softer price action today driven by news that Iran may attend negotiations but only if the US blockade is being lifted. Potential talks with the US in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire’s expiry on Wednesday follows a weekend marked by renewed tensions and conflicting signals, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for now. The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities.
Gold is consolidating as traders assess the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks and the approaching ceasefire deadline. Its near-term trajectory remains closely linked to developments in the Middle East, given the potential spillover into inflation expectations, the dollar, bond yields, and US rate outlook. Also, some focus on US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today (see above).
China’s silver imports surged to a record high in March, reaching around 836 tonnes, well above the 10-year seasonal average near 300 tonnes for the month. Strong demand from retail investors and the solar sector has kept domestic prices trading at an approximate 10% premium to London so far this year.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 22% year-to-date, while the more energy-heavy S&P GSCI has gained 34%. All BCOM subsectors, except for softs, have delivered positive returns so far, underscoring the breadth of the rally—partly driven primarily by both direct and second-round effects of the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption to key commodity supplies. Beyond strong gains across the energy complex, excluding natural gas, notable outperformers include aluminium, soybean oil, wheat, and cotton.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed slightly in rangebound trading early Tuesday after an intraday sell-off Monday was erased. EURUSD dipped to 1.1775 while USDJPY rose back toward the very sticky 159.00 area that has been the middle of the range for several weeks.
The New Zealand dollar firmed across the board on higher than expected Q4 CPI data, which boosted short NZ rates sharply and raised odds of a rate hike as soon as the late May RBNZ meeting. AUDNZD jumped over 0.4% to 1.2132 after trading as high as 1.2204.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

The FX Trader: A gentle USD consolidation. CAD leading the pack.

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:20:00 Z

USD rebounds but far from threatening bearish case.

The latest

USD rebounded slightly on latest oil spike. The week is off to a rocky start for risk sentiment and the US dollar rallied briefly after the latest headlines from the war in Iran spiked crude oil prices and general uncertainty once again on the status of shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait. Iran, or at least some Iranian sources, claim that the strait will remain “closed” even as the US fired on a disabled an Iranian cargo vessel. It is also unknown whether an Iranian delegation will even show up at the peace talks scheduled to take place this week in Islamabad, Pakistan. And yet, the amplitude of the USD rebound was modest, keeping the bearish USD case well intact, outside of USDJPY, which just doesn’t seem to want to fire to the downside. That pair has been locked up in the tight range centered around 159.00 for over five weeks now. Next step: Tuesday's Fed Chair nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh - more below.

CAD goldilocks? (Note: this paragraph written just before Canada reports its March CPI data). The strongest G10 currency of the last five trading days is CAD, which still leaves it far from trending higher across the board. Still, it has shown a notable divergence from the US dollar, which it often weakly tracks in the crosses (take AUDUSD and AUDCAD, with an r2 of the last 1000 trading days of 0.46 and for the last 200 trading days of 0.92 (!). It is far too early to discuss an independent path for CAD, but one could argue that it is insulated from global energy disruptions, has vastly increased its oil export capacity via sea since late 2024 and is interested in building more export capacity. At the same time, the country might enjoy the benefits of any US building and reindustrialization and supply chain friendshoring boom via its huge trade exposures with its southern neighbor. And while the latest Canadian data is at the lower end of the range relative to expectations, according to Citigroup economic surprise index, it would suggest that little hope is priced in for the currency, keeping the bar low for upside surprises.

Strong scandies. Despite the risk-off tone in Europe this morning, we have both SEK and NOK on the rise versus the single currency, with EURSEK eyeing the 10.75 range low of the last month, while EURNOK is testing below 11.00 again. The spike low in EURNOK of 10.935 from mid-March is the lowest level for that pair since early 2023 – so plenty of room for further NOK strength, perhaps into 10.00 eventually assuming.

Incoming data on Tuesday (all times GMT)

Monday 2245 (Tuesday in Asia)- New Zealand Q1 Inflation data: a key data point for the RBNZ rate trajectory, which has been drastically repriced since the October low in yields. The late May meeting is at 5-6 bps of hiking priced in, while the July meeting is at +19 bps. This data points could impact the pricing significantly.
Tuesday 0600 - the UK’s latest jobless claims, employment and payrolls data, possibly giving sterling a chance to make a statement, something it has very much not been doing lately as EURGBP remains bottled up in a tight range below 0.8750.
Tuesday 1230 – US Mar. Retail Sales. Not traditionally a market mover, but can be in the event of a large surprise – and March should be interesting for the degree of the surprise, given the impact of the Iran War – even if the market likely willing to discount a lot of variance.
Tuesday 1400 - US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh totestify in his first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh will make opening remarks followed by a series of questions from Senate lawmakers – with questions on Fed independence and President Trump’s pressure to cut rates considered the hottest topics. Warsh has also argued in favour of cutting the Fed’s balance sheet size, which is at odds with the resumption of regular Fed treasury purchases that resumed in December. It is unsure whether his nomination can be approved by the time Fed Chair Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15 as Republican Thom Tillis has vowed he will not vote to approve Warsh until the US Department of Justice drops the case against Powell for supposedly lying about the use of funds related to the renovation of Fed buildings.

Chart focus: USDCAD ready to power lower?
USDCAD is breaking down now after punching lower through the former range high near 1.3750. There is still a chunk of range to work with to the huge 1.3500 area. But looking at a longer-term chart, it’s hard to see why the pair can’t get back to 1.3000 eventually in a weak US dollar environment. As noted above, economic surprises relative to expectations have been about as bad as they get, and CAD might enjoy both somewhat higher and considerably lower oil prices (as other nations diversify supply chains), if not extremes in oil prices in either direction.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

While CAD has seen the largest positive momentum shift over the last five trading days, AUD remains, NOK is hot on its heels and also enjoys the high energy prices, while the latter has by far the highest trend strength of any G10 currency. On the weak side, the Japanese yen seems terminally weak, though a flash of strength Friday was interesting.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

According to our trend measure, today is the first day that USDCAD finds itself in a new downtrend. Elsewhere, the EURSEK uptrend is set to reverse to a downtrend very soon if the price action maintains below 10.80 or so. And while gold looks to reverse its downtrend today on a close near 4,800, a punchy acceleration to clear the recent range highs would give bulls more confidence. Silver flipped to positive on Friday, but the setup is similar to that of gold.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Options Brief – Hormuz noise, earnings take over – 20 April 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:00:00 Z

Despite a renewed geopolitical shock in the Strait of Hormuz, markets have so far treated the move as noise rather than a full regime shift. The article argues that options traders should focus less on broad fear and more on what the tape, volatility curve and earnings backdrop are actually saying.

Options Brief – Hormuz noise, earnings take over – 20 April 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closed again over the weekend — and the market’s response tells you which narrative is actually in the driving seat.

Iran’s IRGC reversed the Friday Hormuz opening on Saturday, ships came under fire, and the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel on Sunday. Technically, the ceasefire expires tomorrow. Yet equity futures opened lower, pared most of their losses, and the VIX spot — at 19.91 — approached but did not cross the 20 level that often triggers systematic vol-buying flows. The market is treating the Hormuz reversal as elevated background noise, not a new crisis. The reason is not hard to find: earnings season and the AI theme have reasserted themselves as the dominant drivers, and second-round US–Iran talks remain under discussion following the breakdown of the Islamabad negotiations. This week, for options traders, the opportunity is more likely to come from the earnings calendar than from the geopolitical headlines — unless the situation escalates materially.

Headline driver

Hormuz closes again, but the market is choosing to focus on earnings — and the price action supports that choice.

The weekend sequence is well-documented: Iran’s IRGC reversed the Friday Hormuz opening on Saturday, citing the US naval blockade of Iranian ports as a ceasefire violation. Ships attempting transit came under fire. On Sunday, the USS Spruance seized and disabled the Iranian-flagged M/V Touska after a six-hour standoff. By any headline measure, this is an escalation. And yet the equity market’s reaction function has been measured: futures opened lower on Sunday evening, pared much of those losses by Monday’s early session, and VIX spot held at 19.91 – approaching but not crossing the psychologically significant 20 level.

Two factors explain the resilience. First, the diplomatic channel is not closed: second-round US–Iran talks are under discussion following the breakdown of the Islamabad negotiations in mid-April, and Pakistan continues to seek a window to re-engage both sides. Second — and arguably more important for equity markets — the AI and large-cap tech earnings narrative has been running on its own momentum. Investors have repeatedly demonstrated over the past two weeks that they are willing to look through geopolitical noise as long as the earnings picture holds. This morning, that continues to be their working assumption.

Market snapshot

Friday 17 April official closes and Monday 20 April early-session picture.

Friday 17 April – official closing levels

S&P 500: 7,126.06 (+84.78, +1.20%) – a new record close. Weekly gain: +3.3%.
Dow Jones: 49,447.43 (+868.71, +1.79%).
Nasdaq 100: 26,672.43 (+339.43, +1.29%).
Russell 2000: 2,776.90 (+57.30, +2.11%) – new all-time high.
WTI crude: $83.85 (–11.45%). Brent: $90.38 (–9%).
VIX spot: 17.94 – its lowest close since the conflict began.

Monday 20 April – early session

Equity futures: S&P 500 futures –0.62%, Nasdaq 100 futures –0.62%, Russell 2000 futures –1.05% – opened lower but paring losses; the tape is holding rather than accelerating to the downside.
WTI crude: ~$89.94 (+7.1%). Brent: ~$95.71 (+5.9%) – retracing most of Friday’s collapse.
VIX spot: 19.91 (+2.43, +13.90%) – approaching but not crossing the 20 level. Front-month VIX futures at 21.030 show the futures curve is pricing above-20 near-term uncertainty, but spot has held below the threshold.
European equities: broad red – DAX –1.34%, Euro Stoxx 50 –1.44%, CAC 40 –1.28%, FTSE 100 –0.85%. The geopolitical risk premium is showing more visibly in Europe than in US futures.

Market pulse: The divergence between the severity of the weekend headlines and the modesty of Monday’s equity selloff is the signal. The market is re-pricing a known risk while keeping one eye firmly on the earnings calendar.

Options angle

VIX spot at 19.91, equity tape recovering: the options opportunity this week is centred more on selective event risk than on broad geopolitical hedging.

VIX spot at 19.91 with a recovering equity tape is an instructive configuration: implied volatility has repriced modestly higher, but the market is not running for the exits. The 20 level matters not because it is a mechanical trigger but because systematic vol-buying flows often activate at or above it; the fact that spot has held below it suggests the institutional re-pricing remains measured. Separately, front-month VIX futures at 21.030 indicate the futures curve is already embedding above-20 uncertainty for near-term expiries, which is a useful input for calendar spread positioning, where front-month and back-month IV are diverging.

The primary volatility opportunity this week is in single-name earnings and other stock-specific catalysts rather than in index-level geopolitical protection. Tesla stands out as the main large-cap reporting event on this week’s calendar, while much of the broader AI and mega-cap technology earnings slate still sits ahead in the coming weeks. That timing matters: the near-term setup is less about trading a concentrated wave of imminent AI earnings and more about being selective with event premium where the catalyst is actually close. With the market’s attention drifting back toward fundamentals and away from the war premium, targeted single-name volatility setups look more actionable than broad macro hedges right now. Tesla is scheduled to report after the close on 22 April 2026; Alphabet and Microsoft are scheduled for 29 April 2026, and AMD for 5 May 2026.

Energy remains the one area where geopolitical positioning is still relevant. With WTI retracing to around $89.94 and OVX re-expanding, the energy volatility story is genuinely two-sided: a diplomatic breakthrough could send oil back toward $83, while a breakdown in ceasefire momentum could push it toward $95-$100. A long straddle or strangle on f.e. XLE still captures that binary cleanly, but entry at current elevated IV levels should be weighed carefully. The move has already happened, so patience for a volatility pullback before entering may be warranted.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

The market is telling you something pre-market: the Hormuz reversal is a known risk being re-priced, not a new crisis being discovered. Futures have pared a lot of their losses, the AI bid is reasserting itself, and earnings season is reclaiming the wheel. The correct response for an options trader is not to restructure the whole book around a geopolitical tail risk that the market itself is treating as background noise — it is to size that exposure appropriately, keep it defined-risk, and direct the majority of analytical attention toward where the vol opportunity is actually sharpest this week, which is the earnings calendar. The Hormuz situation warrants a position, not a posture.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Options Brief - Nasdaq 12-day winning streak - 17 April 2026 Options Brief - SP 500 clears 7000 - 16 April 2026 Options Brief - Iran deal hope PPI beat - 15 April 2026 Options Brief - Software defies the Hormuz shock - 14 April 2026 Option Brief - Iran Ceasefire Rally - 9 April 2026 Options Brief - Wednesday April 8 2026

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Earnings season ramps up this week amidst pesky Hormuz Strait headline risk.

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:31:00 Z

Tesla the first of Mag7 to report earnings for this cycle.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Oil is no longer just an energy story

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Higher oil now affects inflation, rate hopes and far more sectors than energy alone.
The pain often appears first in transport, travel, chemicals and thin-margin consumer businesses.
Oil has become a stress test for business quality. It shows which companies can absorb higher costs, protect margins and keep moving, and which ones start to creak as pressure builds.

Oil used to live on the commodities page. It now wanders into almost every other page of the market. That is the real shift. When crude rises because of a serious supply shock, it does not stay politely inside the energy sector. It moves into freight bills, airline fuel, fertiliser, food, inflation data, bond yields and, before long, equity valuations. On 17 April 2026, Brent crude pulled back as investors clung to the idea that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen and calm the market. By early 20 April 2026, that calm had proved fragile, with prices climbing again as the route stayed effectively constrained. This was not just another commodity wobble. It was the market treating oil as a real macro problem again.

The reason this matters now is simple. The Strait of Hormuz is not a niche shipping lane. The International Energy Agency says it carried nearly 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products in 2025, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Alternative routes can redirect only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day. In plain English, if that artery is squeezed, the world feels it quickly and not very selectively.

The first hit lands in the real economy

The market often talks about oil as if it were a chart. Companies experience it as a bill. Airlines are the clearest example because fuel sits close to the heart of their cost base. In March, airline shares were hit as oil jumped above 105 USD a barrel, while jet fuel prices surged and fares rose. By 17 April, Singapore jet fuel closed at 204.13 USD a barrel, more than double the 93.45 USD level on 27 February, the day before the war began. That is what makes higher oil dangerous. It does not only raise costs. It forces businesses to choose between higher prices, lower margins, or both. None of those options wins awards at earnings season.

The same logic spreads well beyond travel. Oil and gas are inputs into chemicals, packaging, plastics, transport and parts of agriculture. Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem said on 15 April that the oil shock was already feeding into gasoline, shipping, travel and food through higher fertiliser and related costs. This is how a barrel becomes broad inflation pressure. It starts at the pump, then sneaks into supply chains, and finally turns up in places investors hoped would stay boring. Boring, sadly, has left the building.

Then the bond market starts paying attention

Higher oil matters twice. First through costs, then through interest rates. If energy stays expensive for long enough, inflation becomes harder to bring down. That matters because lower inflation is what gives central banks room to cut rates. Musalem said the oil shock could keep core inflation near 3% and rates on hold for some time. Reuters also noted on 14 April that oil prices were about 40% higher than before the conflict, Treasury yields had risen, and markets had largely ruled out the rate cuts they expected earlier this year.

That second step is where the story stops being “about energy” and starts becoming “about equities”. When bond yields rise and rate cuts get delayed, the pressure spreads to the parts of the market that depend most on cheap money and patient optimism. Rate-sensitive growth stocks feel it because more of their value sits in profits expected far into the future. Consumer businesses with weak pricing power feel it because higher costs meet a customer who is already paying more for fuel and food. Industrials feel it through freight and input costs. The barrel rolls downhill, and many sectors are standing at the bottom.

The new market map is less about sectors and more about stamina

This is why the useful investor question changes. It is no longer enough to ask which sector benefits from higher oil. The better question is which business models can absorb it. Companies with strong margins, essential demand and room to pass on costs usually cope better than businesses that run on thin margins, heavy fuel bills or constant financing optimism. In that sense, oil becomes a stress test for quality. It separates companies that can bend from those that snap, or at least complain very loudly on the next conference call.

The macro version of that stress test is already visible. The International Monetary Fund said on 14 April that its “reference” outlook assumes oil normalises in the second half of 2026, but it warned the world is drifting closer to a worse scenario. In that adverse case, oil stays around 100 USD this year and global growth slows to 2.5%. In the severe case, oil averages 110 USD in 2026 and the world edges close to recession. That is why oil matters even for investors who never touch an energy stock. It can change the growth and rate backdrop for everything else.

That is also why our HALO shortlist matters here. Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence companies often prove more durable when oil moves from energy story to market stress test, because they usually sit closer to essential demand, real assets and steadier pricing power.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is duration. A short oil spike is unpleasant. A persistent one changes behaviour. Watch freight costs, jet fuel, diesel and food-linked inputs, not just headline crude. The second risk is inflation expectations. Central banks can often look through a brief energy shock, but they worry when households and businesses start acting as if higher inflation will stick. The third risk is false relief. Oil has already swung sharply on ceasefire headlines and reopening hopes, only for supply fears to return. In this market, one optimistic headline can move prices, but it cannot move tankers, repair infrastructure or rebuild trust quite so quickly.

When oil becomes a quality test

Oil used to be easy to file away as “the energy story”. That folder no longer works. When a key supply route is under pressure and crude stops behaving like a quiet input, the effects spread into transport, food, inflation, interest rates and finally the market’s view of what a company is worth. That is why this matters for long-term investors.

The next big oil move may not tell you only what happens to energy shares. It may tell you which businesses have pricing power, which consumers are under strain, and which rate-sensitive parts of the market still rely on a friendlier world. Oil starts in the barrel. It ends in the whole portfolio.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

COT update: Energy correction masks resilient metals demand amid fragile peace hopes

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:45:00 Z

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 14 April 2026.
In FX, hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire and potential peace deal saw speculators cut their USD long by 17% from a 14-month high in the previous week.
In commodities, the main driver of price action was the energy sector which, after weeks of strength, dropped 12.5%, while precious and industrial metals staged a comeback.
Elevated Brent longs left prices vulnerable to de-escalation headlines; gold recorded its strongest demand in four months, copper longs surged, while agriculture positioning remained mixed.

Forex:

The latest report, covering the week to 14 April, captures a period when hopes for a US–Iran ceasefire and potential peace deal triggered broad market reversals. The dollar weakened against all major peers, leaving the Dollar Index down 1.7% on the week.

Speculators responded to the broad USD retreat by cutting gross long exposure across eight IMM futures by 17% to USD 14.7 billion, down from a 14-month high the previous week.

The adjustment was uneven. Renewed buying of EUR flipped the net position back into long territory, while short covering in JPY and GBP added further support. This more than offset fresh selling in AUD, NZD, CHF, and notably CAD.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

The latest COT reporting week captured a period where traders attempted to price in the prospect of a still elusive Iran–US peace deal. This focus weighed on the dollar, while U.S. bond yields eased across the curve amid reduced inflation concerns.

The main driver of price action was the energy sector which, after weeks of strength, dropped 12.5%. With only partial support from gains in precious and industrial metals, the Bloomberg Commodity Index ended the week down 3.5%.

Energy:
Despite a 12% price slump, the net long remained elevated at 373.4k contracts, leaving the market exposed to further long liquidation - evident last Friday when an ultimately unfounded peace-driven sell-off pushed prices down by 9%. In WTI, the net position was little changed, with selling on ICE broadly offset by buying on CME.

In early Monday trading, Brent crude and European natural gas prices recovered most of Friday’s losses as hopes for a peace deal faded following a weekend of renewed tensions and confusion. Traders had entered the weekend expecting the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, only for it to be effectively closed again within hours after the IRGC claimed a US blockade of Iran-linked vessels violated the ceasefire agreement set to expire Tuesday. Additional support came after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel, further undermining confidence in near-term diplomacy. Iranian officials have since signalled they are unlikely to attend planned talks in Islamabad. Brent briefly touched USD 86 on Friday before rebounding above USD 95, with resistance emerging near USD 100.

Metals:
Gold recorded its strongest week of demand in four months, with 6.7k contracts added, lifting the net to a four-week high of 98.9k contracts from a two-year low the previous week.

Demand for silver and platinum remained subdued, while copper attracted strong buying, with the net long rising by one-third to a two-month high. Support came from improving demand signals in China and concerns about emerging shortages of sulfuric acid, a key input for copper mining in South America. As a by-product of oil and gas production, around a quarter of global sulfuric acid supply originates from the Persian Gulf, where flows have been disrupted since the Strait of Hormuz closure on 28 February.

Grains:
Heavy short selling reduced the corn net long by 27% to 159.5k contracts. Wheat positioning was mixed, while soymeal saw a 45% increase in net longs to 136k, the highest in 29 months. Overall, the soybean complex - soybeans, meal, and oil - holds a record net long of 459k contracts, representing a nominal value of USD 21 billion.

Softs:
Aggressive fresh selling more than doubled the net short in sugar as ethanol-related support faded. Cocoa shorts rose to a November 2022 high of -18.1k contracts. Meanwhile, six consecutive weeks of strong buying flipped cotton back to a net long for the first time in two years.

Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 14 April, 2026

Managed money positions in key energy futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed Money positions in key metal futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Managed money positions in key agriculture - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

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Educational resources:
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A short guide to trading gold
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A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 20 April 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 06:24:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 20 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: U.S. and Europe rallied on easing oil fears, while Asia ended mixed as Japan and Korea paused after a strong relief run.
Volatility: VIX subdued, Hormuz risk, earnings focus
Digital Assets: BTC steady ETH softer; IBIT leads; ETHA supported
Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebounded Monday with oil prices, Japan’s yields dropped
Currencies: US dollar stronger, Japanese yen weaker as oil prices jump Monday
Commodities: Crude oil rebounds, gold and silver drop amid renewed uncertainty over Iran peace deal.
Macro events: Middle East developments & Canada March CPI

Macro headlines

US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders while leaving Hormuz, while Iran targeted ships and claimed control of the strait, citing US violations of a ceasefire. Hopes for peace have faded despite renewed talks, and the prolonged conflict has triggered a major energy shock, stoking inflation risks and fears of a global slowdown.
Fed’s Waller said policymakers understand inflation risks and may hold rates if war-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs. Fed’s Daly said spending remains solid, but the outlook hinges on how long oil prices and the conflict persist.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly expected to lower Britain’s level of employment during the next decade, according to a poll of executives, with entry-level roles bearing the brunt. Around half of business leaders fear net job losses across the economy, the Accenture research shows, up from a third when the survey took place two years ago.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – Canada March CPI
2245 – New Zealand Q1 CPI

Earnings this week

Monday: Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Alaska Air
Tuesday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, RTX, 3M, Danaher, D.R. Horton
Wednesday: Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, Boston Scientific
Thursday: American Express, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 24,468.48, and the Dow added 1.8% to 49,447.43, with all three helped by an 11% slide in oil after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open during the ceasefire. The move eased inflation worries and pushed investors back into risk assets, especially travel and cyclicals. United Airlines jumped 7.1% as lower fuel costs lifted the airline trade, while Exxon Mobil fell 3.6% and Chevron dropped 2.2% as crude tumbled. Netflix fell about 10.0% after soft second-quarter guidance. The next test is whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting.
Europe: The STOXX 600 gained 1.6% to 626.58, Germany’s DAX rose 2.3% to 24,702.24, France’s CAC 40 climbed 2.0% to 8,425.13, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% to 10,667.63, as lower oil prices and hopes of de-escalation gave Europe’s import-heavy market some welcome breathing room. Travel, banks, and luxury led the rebound, while energy lagged. EasyJet rose 6.0% and IAG added 3.4% as fuel pressure eased, while BP fell 7.4% and Shell dropped 5.6% as crude reversed hard. Alstom was the outlier on the wrong side, plunging almost 30% after withdrawing its cash-flow target. Markets now watch whether diplomacy can stay alive longer than the latest relief rally.
Asia: Asia ended Friday mixed rather than uniformly cheerful. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.8% to 58,475.90 and the Topix dropped 1.4% to 3,760.81 as investors locked in gains after Thursday’s record high, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped to 6,191.92 after a strong run earlier in the week. Hong Kong and mainland China were softer as traders took profits and waited for possible U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell in Seoul, while weak full-year results from Kweichow Moutai weighed on Chinese consumer names. TSMC stayed a key regional support after its strong earnings and higher revenue outlook, so Asia still looks like a market that wants to believe, but prefers receipts.

Volatility

Volatility remains contained, but the backdrop is still fragile. The VIX closed Friday at 17.48, a level that suggests calm markets even as headlines around the Strait of Hormuz continue to shift between open and closed, keeping oil prices and inflation expectations in focus. For investors, that matters more than the VIX itself: any sustained disruption could feed through into higher costs and renewed pressure on equities. At the same time, earnings season is picking up pace this week, shifting attention from macro risks to company results, which typically keeps index volatility contained but increases single-stock swings.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a weekly move of around ±98 points (±1.38%) into Friday.
For today’s expiry, the options chain shows a mild upside skew, with near-the-money calls priced slightly above comparable puts, pointing to positioning that leans cautiously positive rather than defensive.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets are stabilising after recent weakness, but they continue to behave like risk assets rather than safe havens. Bitcoin is trading around $74,500 and Ether near $2,275, while major altcoins such as Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are modestly higher, recovering from last week’s geopolitics-driven sell-off.
The ETF picture remains supportive: IBIT (+2.8%) and ETHA (+3.1%) both advanced on Friday, with flows still favouring Bitcoin more clearly than Ethereum. That divergence remains important—Bitcoin demand is holding up, while Ethereum appears more sensitive to regulatory and ecosystem-specific uncertainty.
On the equity side, crypto-linked stocks such as COIN, MSTR and the miners are rebounding more strongly, reflecting their higher sensitivity to sentiment. For investors, the message is straightforward: underlying demand remains constructive, but crypto direction is still being driven primarily by macro developments.

Fixed Income

US treasury yields rebounded Monday on the snapback rally in oil prices linked to the status of shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait. This came after a large drop in yield Friday on the huge drop steep drop in energy prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose over two basis points to 3.73% after the lowest close in more than four weeks on Friday. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield rebounded two basis points to 4.27%- near the middle of the range of the last week.
Japan’s Government Bond Yields fell Monday as front-end yields eyed the lowest close in more than two weeks as anticipation of Bank of Japan policy tightening continues to fade. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell below 1.36% after ending Friday above 1.37% and the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell more than two basis points to below 3.40% Monday, eyeing its lowest close in just over a week.

Commodities

Brent crude and European natural gas prices have recovered most of Friday’s losses after hopes for an Iran–US peace deal faded amid a weekend marked by renewed tensions and confusion. Traders entered the weekend on the assumption that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, only for it to be effectively closed again within hours after the IRGC claimed a US blockade of Iran-linked vessels violated the ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. Prices extended gains after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel, further undermining confidence in any near-term diplomatic progress. Iranian officials have since signalled they are unlikely to participate in planned talks in Islamabad, adding to the uncertainty. Brent crude briefly touched a low near USD 86 on Friday before rebounding sharply to trade back above USD 95, with initial resistance seen around the USD 100 level.
Gold fell below USD 4,740 in early trading after reaching a one-month high near USD 4,890 on Friday, briefly wiping out last week’s gains before stabilising around USD 4,800. The latest weakness has been driven by renewed dollar strength and fresh concerns about energy-led inflation. Gold and silver, like many other commodities, remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East given the knock-on impact on the dollar, bond yields, and US rate expectations.
Chicago wheat futures rose on Monday, supported by adverse weather in key U.S. growing regions and renewed concerns that the Iran–US ceasefire may be breaking down. Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping fuel and fertiliser costs elevated - key inputs for agriculture - raising the risk of lower production over time and adding upward pressure to global food prices.

Currencies

The US dollar strengthened early Monday on the fresh jump in energy prices on concerns linked to the status of shipping through the Hormuz Strait, but faded slightly later in the session. EURUSD trades near 1.1750 after a dip as low as 1.1729 and after closing Friday at 1.1765.
USDJPY remains in the middle of the range of the last several weeks near 159.00 after dipping as low as 157.60 on Friday before rebounding to close last week at 158.64. The sharp fall in USDJPY on Friday intraday was likely linked to relief in Japan that oil prices dropped so sharply on the day, helping global bond yields lower as well.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

The new portfolio playbook: 4 buckets for an inflation-risk regime

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 05:30:00 Z

Key points:

The Iran shock is testing the old portfolio playbook by showing that bonds, growth, and diversification do not always behave as investors expect when oil keeps inflation risks alive.
Many portfolios remain exposed to one macro outcome: falling inflation, lower yields, and stable geopolitics. That leaves them vulnerable when energy is underowned, duration is too long, and growth valuations are still rich.
An illustrative 4-bucket framework can help investors think through a new regime: liquidity and flexibility, inflation and geopolitical insurance, pricing-power equities, and growth approached with more discipline.

The core problem

A surprising number of portfolios are still built around the same quiet assumption: inflation keeps easing, central banks can cut, long-duration bonds regain their role as shock absorbers, and expensive growth stocks justify their valuations as discount rates fall.

That framework worked well when disinflation was the dominant market story. It works much less well in a world where the Middle East conflict keeps dragging on, oil remains volatile, freight and insurance costs stay elevated, and every few days brings a fresh ceasefire headline that briefly revives risk appetite before the inflation question returns.

This is why many investors may be more exposed than they realise.

A portfolio that is underweight energy, overweight long-duration bonds, and concentrated in expensive growth is not just a style preference anymore. It is a macro bet. More specifically, it is a bet that geopolitical risk fades quickly, oil stops feeding inflation, and central banks regain room to ease.

That may still happen. But it is no longer the only scenario that matters.

Why this matters now

The Middle East conflict is not only a geopolitical story. For investors, it is a market story that travels through three channels:

1. Oil

Higher oil prices are the most immediate transmission mechanism. Even if physical supply disruption is limited, the market does not need a full outage to reprice inflation risk. It only needs enough uncertainty around shipping routes, insurance costs, or future supply to keep crude elevated.

2. Inflation expectations

Oil shocks do not stay in the energy complex. They feed into transport, manufacturing, food, and services with a lag. That makes central banks more cautious, particularly when inflation was already proving sticky.

3. Rates and valuation

If rate cuts get delayed, or even merely look less certain, long-duration assets feel the pressure first. That includes government bonds at the long end, but also high-multiple equities whose valuations depend heavily on lower discount rates.

This is where the portfolio problem becomes more obvious.

The hidden concentration in modern portfolios

Many portfolios look diversified on paper. In reality, they are often concentrated in one macro outcome.

A classic modern multi-asset portfolio may hold:

Heavy exposure to large-cap growth and technology
Significant duration exposure through long-dated government bonds
Limited or no energy exposure
Minimal direct inflation hedges

That mix can perform very well when inflation is falling and rates are moving lower. But when oil rises and inflation expectations move up again, both long bonds and expensive growth can come under pressure at the same time.

That is the real problem: what looked diversified in a disinflation regime can become highly correlated in an inflation shock.

In other words, many investors are not diversified. They are simply diversified within the same macro view.

Why de-escalation headlines do not solve the issue immediately

The market keeps showing the same pattern: ceasefire hopes trigger relief rallies in equities, while oil may fall sharply for a moment. Then the harder questions return.

Has the shipping route really normalised? Are insurance costs going back to pre-conflict levels? Will companies regain margin certainty quickly? Will central banks look through the shock, or worry that inflation expectations are becoming less anchored?

Even when diplomacy improves sentiment, the inflation impulse can linger longer than the equity relief rally suggests.

That means investors should be careful about rebuilding portfolios entirely around the idea that peace headlines automatically restore the old market regime.

An illustrative framework for thinking about positioning

The goal here is not to prescribe a portfolio for permanent war. It is to offer an illustrative way of thinking about how different assets may behave if uncertainty persists and inflation risks remain elevated, along with examples of exposures investors may analyse, not recommendations.

For information purposes only, one way to frame the discussion is to think in buckets rather than making one large macro bet.

Bucket one: liquidity and flexibility

The first line of defence is not a heroic macro trade. It is flexibility.

In this illustrative framework, cash or cash-like instruments can provide flexibility in volatile environments. Short-duration fixed income may also be worth watching more closely than long-duration bonds when inflation risks remain unsettled.

This bucket is less exciting, but it highlights the value of optionality. It can help investors think about resilience, liquidity, and the ability to respond if markets overshoot in either direction.

Bucket two: inflation and geopolitical insurance

This part of the framework focuses on assets that may respond to the specific shock itself, rather than only to broad market volatility.

Gold

Gold is not a perfect day-to-day inflation hedge, but it remains an important insurance asset in a world of geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal uncertainty, and rising questions around real rates and currency stability. It tends to work best as strategic protection rather than a headline trade.

Energy

Energy is the most direct hedge against an oil-driven inflation shock. The challenge is that energy can reverse sharply on ceasefire headlines, so position sizing matters. This is not always a comfortable buy, but that is precisely why many portfolios end up underexposed to it.

Hard assets and real assets

Investors may also want to think about selected hard assets and real assets more broadly. Infrastructure, pipelines, storage assets, and some commodity-linked businesses can offer a more durable hedge when inflation is tied to physical supply constraints. These exposures may be less binary than pure energy trades and can benefit from a world where capital is being redirected toward security of supply, resilience, and domestic capacity.

Inflation-linked bonds

If the concern is not just volatility but purchasing-power erosion, inflation-linked bonds may deserve more attention. They are not a perfect hedge against every geopolitical shock, but they can help when inflation expectations move higher and real yields stay volatile.

Bucket three: defensive resilience and pricing power

This bucket is less about chasing upside and more about resilience if inflation stays sticky and yields remain unsettled.

Not all equities behave the same way in an inflation-risk regime. The companies that may hold up better are often those with:

Strong balance sheets
Durable margins
Clear pricing power
Resilient demand
Less reliance on falling rates to support valuations

Illustratively, investors often look at areas such as healthcare, consumer staples, infrastructure, utilities in some markets, defence, and selected industrials when thinking about this bucket.

The common thread is simple: these are businesses that may be better placed to defend margins and earnings even if the macro backdrop stays noisy.

Bucket four: structural growth, but with valuation discipline

This is not an argument to abandon growth or technology. It is an argument to be more selective about what kind of growth still works in a world of unstable rates.

Some growth sectors still have strong structural tailwinds, especially where earnings delivery is catching up with the excitement. But investors may need to separate companies supported by durable revenue growth, improving cash flows, and real demand from those that were mainly lifted by the hope of lower discount rates.

Illustratively, this bucket may include selected parts of technology, AI-linked businesses, semiconductors, software, and other structural growth themes. The focus here is not defence. It is owning growth while being more disciplined about valuation, duration sensitivity, and earnings delivery.

For information purposes only, some of the questions investors may ask include:

Is earnings growth doing the heavy lifting, or is valuation?
Is the business delivering real cash flow, or only future promise?
Can the company still justify its multiple if yields stay elevated?

Those questions matter more now than they did in a cleaner disinflation backdrop.

What investors may need to rethink about bonds

For years, investors were trained to expect government bonds to rally whenever growth fears rose. That relationship is less dependable during oil-driven inflation shocks.

If inflation is the problem, not the solution, long-duration bonds may not offer the same protection investors have grown used to expecting.

That does not make bonds irrelevant. It simply suggests the old hedge assumption may need more scrutiny. Illustratively, investors may think about distinctions such as:

Short duration may behave differently from long duration in an inflation shock
Inflation-linked bonds may deserve a fresh look when purchasing-power risks rise
Credit selection may matter more when margins and refinancing conditions come under pressure

The key is not to assume that all fixed income will behave the same way.

Three illustrative scenarios to think through

Rather than trying to predict the next headline, it may be more useful to think through a range of possible outcomes for information purposes only.

Scenario 1: De-escalation holds

Oil falls, yields ease, and risk appetite improves. In that world, quality equities and selected cyclical exposures can do well, while pure inflation hedges may lag.

Scenario 2: Conflict drags, but does not spiral

This may be the most uncomfortable scenario because it keeps the inflation premium alive without causing a full panic. Oil stays elevated, central banks stay cautious, and markets swing between relief and anxiety. In this world, short duration, energy exposure, and pricing-power equities may all have a role.

Scenario 3: Material escalation

This is the tail risk. Here, liquidity, energy, gold, and defensive quality matter most, while long-duration growth and long bonds may not offer the usual protection if inflation expectations rise sharply.

Final thoughts

The right response to the Middle East conflict is not to build a portfolio for constant crisis. It is to recognise that the old disinflation playbook is no longer enough on its own.

That means resisting the temptation to chase every relief rally as proof that the inflation threat has passed. It also means not swinging to the other extreme and positioning only for disaster.

An illustrative takeaway is a barbell-style mindset: keep flexibility and liquidity in view, consider the role of insurance assets, and focus on assets that do not need a perfect macro backdrop to perform.

Because in this market, the danger is not just being wrong about the next headline.

It is discovering that the whole portfolio was built for a world that no longer exists.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Theme - Big pharma Investment portfolio Stock Portfolios Balanced Portfolios Portfolio guide Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Gold Theme - Precious metals

Why Netflix fell after a strong quarter

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Netflix beat first-quarter numbers, but second-quarter guidance arrived a little lighter than investors wanted.
The real story is shifting from subscriber growth to monetisation, retention and engagement across formats.
Netflix still looks strong, but the bar is now high enough to make “good” feel oddly disappointing.

Netflix gave investors a familiar sort of surprise on 16 April 2026: a strong quarter looking back, and a slightly softer story looking ahead. The stock closed flat at 107.79 USD in regular trading, then slipped to 97.35 USD after hours, down 9.7%, after management guided for second-quarter earnings per share of 0.78 USD and revenue of 12.57 billion USD, both below Bloomberg consensus.

That reaction says a lot about where Netflix sits today. The business still delivers solid growth, with first-quarter revenue up 16% year on year to 12.25 billion USD and earnings per share at 1.23 USD, but the market is now far less interested in what Netflix just did than in how smoothly it can keep the engine running from here.

Q2 2026 Forecast: Company Guidance vs. Bloomberg Consensus

Saxo Bank analysis. Netflix's Q2 guidance against Bloomberg consensus estimates across key metrics. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

That mix matters because it shows where Netflix now sits in market psychology. It is no longer judged like a fast-growing newcomer. It is judged like a very large, very successful platform that must keep proving there is another lever to pull. This quarter said there are several levers. The market just wanted them pulled harder, faster, and preferably all at once.

A beat on paper, a miss in spirit

On the surface, the quarter looks solid. Revenue grew faster than expected, operating income improved to roughly 4.0 billion USD, and operating margin reached 32.3%. Free cash flow rose sharply to 5.1 billion USD. The catch is that part of the earnings boost came from a 2.8 billion USD termination fee tied to Netflix’s abandoned media deal, so investors were never going to treat all of that improvement as repeatable. Great quarter, yes. Clean quarter, not entirely.

That is why guidance mattered more than the headline beat. Netflix said second-quarter content amortisation will be the highest year-on-year growth point of 2026 before easing later in the year. In simple terms, that means the accounting cost of shows and films hits harder now, which squeezes near-term margins even if the longer-term content slate stays healthy. Markets tend to greet that kind of nuance with all the patience of a toddler in a supermarket queue.

The business is growing up, not slowing down

The more useful reading is that Netflix is evolving from a pure subscriber story into a monetisation and engagement story. Management kept full-year revenue guidance at 50.7 billion USD to 51.7 billion USD and still expects advertising revenue to reach about 3 billion USD in 2026, roughly double last year’s level. It also said recent price changes have gone well. That matters because it shows Netflix can still charge more while broadening the business beyond the simple old formula of “add members, raise price, repeat.”

Netflix is also trying to become what it calls a “must-have service”, the first place people go for entertainment and the last they cancel. That ambition now stretches beyond films and series into live events, video podcasts, games and a redesigned mobile experience with a vertical discovery feed. Whether every experiment works is almost beside the point. The broader industry implication is clear: streaming is no longer just a library business. It is becoming a time-spent business, competing not only with other platforms but with every screen-based habit people have.

Why the industry should pay attention

Netflix’s letter makes one point especially well: this company is still large, but not finished. It says it reaches an audience approaching 1 billion people, yet still accounts for only about 5% of global TV viewing and has penetrated less than 45% of its broadband household market. That is a useful reminder for long-term investors. The story is no longer about whether streaming wins. It already has. The question is which platforms become habit-forming enough to monetise that win across ads, pricing, formats and retention.

This also helps explain why Reed Hastings stepping down from the board mattered to sentiment, even if it changes little in daily operations. When a company is shifting from founder era to scaled institution, investors become more sensitive to execution. A guidance miss and a symbolic leadership handover landing together is not fatal. It is just not the sort of combination that calms a nervous market.

Risks worth watching

The main risk is not that Netflix suddenly stops growing. It is that growth becomes more expensive, more incremental and harder to impress investors with. If content costs keep rising faster than revenue, margin pressure will return. If advertising grows but remains too small to move the whole group, that future pillar stays promising rather than proven. And if newer bets such as live events, podcasts and games lift engagement without lifting profit, investors may decide the story is getting broader but not better. Early warning signs are simple: weaker margin delivery, slower ad progress, or evidence that price rises start to hurt retention rather than help revenue.

When good is no longer enough

Netflix’s quarter was a useful reminder that stock market reactions and business quality are not always the same thing. The company delivers a strong first quarter, keeps growing, keeps widening its offer, and still gets marked down because the next quarter looks a touch less shiny. That may feel harsh, but it is also the cost of success.

At this scale, Netflix is no longer rewarded for simply being good. It is measured against the idea that it should be better every time. For long-term investors, that is the real lesson here. The business still looks strong. The stock simply reminds us that when expectations become premium entertainment, even a hit quarter can get a mixed review.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Netflix Inc. Netflix

Options Brief – Nasdaq 12-day winning streak – 17 April 2026

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:56:00 Z

Thursday’s session delivered a 12th consecutive Nasdaq gain, record closes across all four major US indices, and a further decline in VIX to 17.94 - all against a backdrop of Iran peace talk progress and TSMC’s record quarterly earnings. The sell-the-news reaction ...

Options Brief – Nasdaq 12-day winning streak – 17 April 2026

Twelve consecutive gains, VIX at 17.94, and a Netflix print waiting at the open – the vol compression trade is alive, but the TSMC lesson is fresh.

The Nasdaq logged its 12th consecutive daily gain on Thursday – the longest winning streak since July 2009 – as easing Middle East tensions and TSMC’s blowout Q1 results combined to sustain a broad risk-on tone. The S&P 500 closed at a new record of 7,041.28 and the VIX continued its recent downward trend to 17.94. Heading into April 17, Netflix Q1 results (reported after Thursday’s close) and the durability of the Iran de-escalation narrative are the two principal catalysts to position around.

Headline driver

Easing Middle East tensions and TSMC’s Q1 beat sustained the risk-on tone – with the Iran narrative remaining the key variable to watch.

Middle East tensions eased further on April 16. Trump struck an optimistic tone on Iran, saying the conflict was nearing its end, while a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire was separately confirmed – both reinforcing the de-escalation narrative that has been the dominant macro tailwind for equities since early April. Markets weighed these developments against uncertainty around the eventual timeline for any formal resolution, which partially capped the intraday advance and limited the S&P 500’s gain to +0.26%.

TSMC added a second pillar to the advance: Q1 net profit rose 58.3% year on year to a record level, with revenue of $35.9 billion confirming sustained AI-driven chip demand. TSM shares fell after the print, illustrating the sell-the-news dynamic that characterises heavily anticipated earnings events when expectations are already stretched. That dynamic is directly relevant to the Netflix print landing this morning.

Market snapshot – Thursday 16 April 2026 closes

Record closes across all four major US indices on April 16 – but the April 17 open brings Netflix down nearly 10% pre-market and WTI off more than 6%.

S&P 500: 7,041.28 (+0.26%) – new record closing high.
Nasdaq 100 futures: 26,487.25 (+0.12%) – new record; 12th consecutive daily gain, the longest winning streak since July 2009.
Russell 2000: ~2,718.54 (+0.18%) – new record closing high, confirming broad participation beyond large-cap tech.
WTI crude: ~$94.69 (+3.72%) – rose alongside the Middle East de-escalation narrative.
VIX: 17.94 – continuing its recent downward trend at Thursday’s close.

Early April 17 session – notable pre-market moves:

Netflix (NFLX): $97.32 pre-market (−$10.47, −9.71%) – Q1 results disappointed; move exceeds the ~6.54% priced expected range (see options angle).
WTI crude: ~$88.84 (−6.18%) – unwinding Thursday’s geopolitical risk premium.
VIX: ~18.18 pre-market – rising on the Netflix miss and oil move.

Market pulse: Thursday’s record closes met with a materially different open – Netflix and WTI are the two pressure points changing the session setup.

Options angle

VIX at 17.94, a live Netflix print, and a TSMC lesson in sell-the-news dynamics – three threads every options trader should hold simultaneously this morning.

VIX closed at 17.94 on Thursday, continuing its recent downward trend. That picture has already changed heading into the open: Netflix is down 9.71% in pre-market and WTI is off 6.18%, and VIX has moved to approximately 18.18 in early trading. The open will likely push it further.

The defining options event of this session is Netflix – and not in the way the market anticipated. Options priced an expected move of approximately 6.54% into the Q1 print (30-day IV ~40.3%); the actual pre-market move is −9.71% to $97.32. The stock has blown through the lower breakeven of any iron condor or short strangle positioned around the expected range. This is a realised-vol-exceeds-implied-vol event: the tail that was not priced has materialised. Any short-vol structure entered at Thursday’s close is now facing max loss on the put side unless hedged.

Combined with TSMC’s sell-the-news decline on Thursday, this is two consecutive major earnings prints this week where short vol was the losing setup. The common thread is that implied volatility underpriced the actual outcome – in TSMC’s case because guidance disappointed despite a record beat, in Netflix’s case because Q1 results fell short of already elevated expectations. The lesson for the remainder of this earnings season is not that short premium is structurally wrong, but that earnings IV in high-expectation names can and does underprice downside tail risk. Defined-risk structures with a known maximum loss are not optional – they are the minimum viable approach in this environment.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

Thursday’s close looked like a textbook short-premium setup: record highs, VIX at 17.94, a 12-day winning streak, and a de-escalation narrative with momentum. The April 17 open has changed the picture materially. Netflix is down nearly 10% pre-market – the actual move exceeds the expected range by more than three percentage points, meaning short-vol structures are facing losses. WTI is off more than 6%, unwinding the Iran-driven risk premium that helped drive Thursday’s gains. VIX is already moving higher.

For options traders heading into the open, the key takeaway is regime awareness. The underlying trend – record highs, de-escalation tailwind, compressed vol – has not reversed. But earnings season has now produced two consecutive prints (TSMC, Netflix) where the realised move exceeded the implied. That pattern should inform position sizing and structure choice for every remaining earnings event this cycle: defined risk is not a preference, it is a requirement.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Related articles/content
Options Brief - SP 500 clears 7000 - 16 April 2026 Options Brief - Iran deal hope PPI beat - 15 April 2026 Options Brief - Software defies the Hormuz shock - 14 April 2026 Option Brief - Iran Ceasefire Rally - 9 April 2026 Options Brief - Wednesday April 8 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 17 April 2026

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 06:55:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 17 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Global equities extended their rebound as Wall Street hit records, Europe stayed mixed, and Asia rallied on peace hopes.
Volatility: VIX subdued, geopolitics supportive, Nasdaq streak
Digital Assets: Selective strength, BTC stable, ETH lagging, IBIT outperforming ETHA
Fixed Income: Yields steady, limited easing priced
Currencies: USD stabilising, softer trend, JPY weak
Commodities: Oil easing, supply tight, gold holding, silver firm, copper consolidates
Macro events: Markets remain caught between fragile hopes for fresh US-Iran talks and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz.

Macro headlines

Oil eased in early Friday trade, but the market is still trading on diplomacy headlines rather than calm nerves. Brent near USD 98 and West Texas Intermediate near USD 93 as traders reacted to hopes for weekend US-Iran talks, even though the Strait of Hormuz has been shut for seven weeks and supply disruption remains severe.
The dollar is heading for a second straight weekly loss as investors unwind some safe-haven positioning. Reuters said the euro and sterling have recovered most of their Iran-war losses, while markets wait for a fresh catalyst from weekend diplomacy.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book says the Iran war is a major source of uncertainty for US firms, complicating hiring, pricing and capital spending decisions. At the same time, weekly jobless claims fell to 207,000, which suggests the labor market is still holding up, even if confidence is not exactly doing cartwheels.
Central banks are still leaning cautious rather than heroic. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank is in no rush to raise rates, European Central Bank officials have played down the chance of an April hike, and the International Monetary Fund said its reference scenario still implies about 50 basis points of European Central Bank tightening this year.
In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided signaling an April rate hike, and Reuters said market pricing for such a move has dropped to around 10%. That keeps the yen and Japan policy outlook firmly in the market conversation.
The International Monetary Fund also warned European governments not to overuse broad energy support, arguing that blanket subsidies distort price signals and can become very costly, while targeted support for vulnerable households is the better option.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

09:00 – Euro area February trade balance.
10:00 – International Monetary Fund meetings continue.
12:00 – Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks.
17:00 – US Baker Hughes oil rig count and total rig count.

Earnings next week

Monday: Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Alaska Air
Tuesday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, RTX, 3M, Danaher, D.R. Horton
Wednesday: Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, Boston Scientific
Thursday: American Express, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,041.28, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to 24,102.70, and the Dow added 0.2% to 48,578.72 as hopes for fresh U.S.-Iran talks and a temporary Israel-Lebanon ceasefire kept risk appetite alive. Earnings still did some of the heavy lifting: PepsiCo rose 2.3% after beating estimates, Microsoft added 2.0% to cap a 13.3% four-day rebound ahead of results later this month, and AMD jumped 7.8% to a record high as AI optimism and a price-target increase kept chip momentum hot. The weaker side was less glamorous, with Charles Schwab down 7.6% after results, Abbott off 6.0% on a guidance cut, and Netflix down almost 10% after hours on soft second-quarter guidance and Reed Hastings’ planned June exit as chairman.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 was essentially flat at 616.95, while the DAX rose 0.4% to 24,154.47 and the FTSE 100 added 0.3% to 10,589.99 as investors balanced hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East against still-high energy costs and a weaker German growth outlook. UK sentiment got a lift from February GDP, which rose a better-than-expected 0.5% month on month, but the market tone stayed selective rather than cheerful. Technology helped, with SAP up 3.5%, and Intertek jumped 9.0% after rejecting EQT’s bid, while Barry Callebaut sank 15.6% after cutting its full-year profit outlook and travel names stayed under pressure, with Ryanair down 6.4% and easyJet off 5.0%. Europe now looks like a market waiting for oil to calm down before it gets properly optimistic.
Asia: Asia led the move higher on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.4% to 59,518.34, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.7% to 26,394.26, South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.2% to 6,226.05, and Shanghai added 0.7%, as peace hopes met stronger-than-expected China data, with first-quarter gross domestic product growth reported at 5.0%. Taiwan stayed at the centre of the AI story after TSMC reported a 58% profit jump to a record T$572.5 billion, raised its 2026 revenue outlook, and signalled capital spending at the high end of guidance. TSMC’s Taipei shares had already closed 0.2% higher at a record before the release, which told investors that the AI buildout still has real receipts behind it, not just very expensive excitement.

Volatility

Volatility remains contained, even as equities continue to grind higher, with the VIX closing at 17.94 (-1.27%) while the S&P 500 rose to 7,041, supported by the Nasdaq extending its 12-day winning streak. The main driver remains geopolitics: easing tensions and ongoing U.S.–Iran diplomacy are keeping risk sentiment stable, but this also leaves markets sensitive to any negative headlines. The current setup suggests investors are comfortable with the rally, but still keeping protection in place rather than fully embracing risk.
Expected move for SPX this week: options pricing implied a move of about 108.5 points (1.59%) into today’s expiry, with roughly 34.5 points (0.49%) expected for today alone.
For today’s expiry, there is still a modest downside skew, with near-the-money puts priced at higher implied volatility than calls (around 16.6% vs 14.5%), indicating investors continue to favour downside protection over upside participation.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are holding a constructive tone, but participation remains selective rather than broad-based. Bitcoin is trading near $74,700 (-0.6%), while Ethereum is softer around $2,320 (-1.1%), suggesting the move higher in crypto is losing some momentum beneath the surface. The broader macro backdrop remains supportive, with easing geopolitical tensions and steady equity markets helping stabilise sentiment, but flows indicate investors are not fully committing to the rally.
This divergence is also visible in ETFs, where IBIT is holding firmer around $42.73 (+0.4%), while ETHA is weaker near $17.82 (-0.8%), reinforcing that bitcoin exposure continues to attract stronger demand than ether. In crypto-related equities, the tone is more constructive, with COIN (+2.0%), MSTR (+3.8%), and MARA (+10.3%) showing clear upside participation. Options flow adds another layer to the story: upside positioning remains visible in bitcoin proxies, but it is offset by more defensive or income-style structures elsewhere. Overall, the trend remains positive, but conviction is still lacking.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasuries are broadly steady after recent moves higher in yields, with the 2-year yield near 3.77% and the 10-year yield around 4.32%, as markets balance resilient economic data with slightly calmer geopolitical conditions. The overall message remains that investors are not pricing a sharp slowdown, but also see limited scope for near-term rate cuts.
Demand for Treasuries remains solid in the background, with foreign holdings rising to a record USD 9.49 trillion in February (fact, Reuters). In Japan, expectations for policy tightening remain uncertain, with markets still watching closely whether the Bank of Japan will move at its upcoming meeting, while yields remain elevated.

Commodities

Oil has eased, with Brent trading near USD 98.7 and WTI around USD 90.1, as hopes for renewed U.S.–Iran talks and the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire have reduced some of the immediate panic premium. That said, the broader supply story has not gone away, with disruptions to Middle East production still feeding into the physical market, suggesting prices may remain elevated even if diplomacy progresses.
Gold is holding close to USD 4,800, trading around USD 4,786, supported by a softer dollar and expectations that easing tensions could reduce inflation pressure. Silver remains firm near USD 78.7, continuing to benefit from the same macro backdrop. Copper has edged lower on the day, but the broader trend remains supported by tight supply conditions and returning demand from China.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar is stabilising after its recent decline, with the DXY near 98.2, as easing geopolitical tensions reduce some of the safe-haven demand that had supported it. The broader tone, however, remains softer, with investors gradually rotating back into risk-sensitive currencies.
The euro is trading around USD 1.177, while the Australian dollar is holding near USD 0.716, close to multi-year highs. The Japanese yen remains weak near 159.4 per dollar, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around Bank of Japan policy. Commodity-linked currencies continue to find support from elevated energy prices, leaving FX markets balanced between fading risk aversion and still-tight commodity supply.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

What now after the "biblical vol reset"?

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 13:07:00 Z

Massive stock comeback ahead of earnings season.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

So exactly how remarkable has the recent US market behaviour been?
Very! Warren Pies breaks it down for us.

Can you build a Bloomberg terminal entirely with AI for free?
Michael Kao is trying - certainly not free in terms of the labor applied or the expertise needed to know how to go about this attempt. A great and superbly written substack post on the lessons he has learned along the way in building something quite remarkable and with some interesting conclusions. Try the product out here - it is amazing.

Why US equity market valuations are where they are - and why it might change.
This Odd Lots podcast rhymes with the points made by Peter Garnry on his most recent Saxo Market Call appearance in Februarywhen he talked about “the great pool of profits” the Mag7 created, one that may be running much lower, at least in terms of growth and size relative to the economy.

A Substack posttrying to figure out why US sentiment readings are so poor in a supposedly okay economy.

TLDR on stablecoins and US “reclaiming financial sovereignty” via their use.
A white paper for anyone not up to speed on this(I include myself to a degree in that group still - also a bookmark for me to read!).

The new Iranian regime - even worse than the old one?
This would fit with many of Robert Pape’s arguments. Is Iran just buying time here?

The state of play in equity and private capital/direct lending.
Golden observations from Howard Marks, a master investor - wish he could read them aloud in a more engaging way!

Chart of the Day - Tick-tock as market cap heavies outperform

While the S&P 500 Index making all time new highs has justifiably grabbed headlines, especially on the neck-snapping reversal of momentum as the near-correction became an outright melt-up, it was the big market cap giants that have lead the way higher, with the median stock outperforming, a divergence that bears tracking in coming days for further development. Yesterday, for example, saw more losers than gainers on an overall solid 0.8% advance for the market. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index versus the Equal Weight Index. The last two major divergence before this one were in early 2025 just before the meltdown into Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements - at that time with the standard index outperforming the equal-weight index, which was not posting new highs in February 2025. Then we saw a major episode of divergence just ahead of . This last episode may have been driven chiefly by AI-impact fears that struck larger market cap companies disproportionately (hyperscaling big cap-ex spenders plus the AI-disrupting-all-software theme). These latter have now come storming back relative to the median stock as represented by the equal-weight S&P 500, taking the standard index to an all-time high while the equal-weight index lags. Given how beaten down some major names still are, there could be room for further outperformance of the market-cap weighted index if benchmark chasers are forced to load up on passive instruments tracking the major index.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief – S&P 500 clears 7,000 – 16 April 2026

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:30:00 Z

Wednesday’s session was one for the record books: the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time, the Nasdaq logged its 11th straight gain, and VIX fell to 18.12 as Iran ceasefire signals removed the last of the geopolitical premium from risk assets.

Options Brief – S&P 500 clears 7,000 – 16 April 2026

The war premium exits; the S&P 500 writes history above 7,000 as Iran ceasefire signals reshape every asset class.

President Trump declared the US–Iran conflict “very close to over” on Wednesday and signalled that direct talks could resume within two days. Markets took him at face value: the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time in its history, completing a full erasure of every loss accumulated over the 40-day conflict. VIX at 18.12, energy implied volatility collapsed, and tech call buying ran two to four times put volume. Heading into today’s session, the directional read is unambiguously risk-on and the options signal is clear – sell premium, not buy protection.

Headline driver

Trump’s ceasefire signal ends the war premium in a single session.

President Trump described the Iran conflict as “very close to over” and indicated that direct US–Iran talks could resume within two days – and risk assets responded with one of the most decisive sessions of the entire 40-day episode. The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time in its history, fully erasing the drawdown from the conflict’s outbreak. Brent crude slid back toward the $93–95 per barrel range as the oil war premium evaporated, and defensive positions across rates and gold saw outflows as capital rotated back into equities.

For options traders, this is the moment where the character of the market shifts: from buying protection to selling it. The ceasefire signal is a known catalyst and markets have priced it. What comes next is a regime of lower realised volatility, normalising term structure, and earnings season as the dominant vol driver from late April onwards.

Market snapshot

Futures pre-market 16 April: the conflict unwind holding into the new session.

S&P 500 futures: 7,068.25 (+0.11%) – sustaining Wednesday’s historic first-ever close above 7,000; the index has fully recovered every point lost since the Iran conflict began.
Nasdaq 100 futures: 26,452.50 (+0.33%) – building on the 11-session win streak in tech and growth names, led by AI infrastructure and high-beta rotation.
Dow futures: 48,680 (+0.02%) – broadly flat, consolidating the risk-on move with little drag from defensives.
VIX: 18.12 (–0.28%) – holding the vol compression from Wednesday’s close; fear gauge stays below 20 as the ceasefire signal holds.
Brent crude: Declined toward the $93–95 per barrel range – retreating from the elevated levels sustained through the conflict period as peace signals reduce the supply-disruption premium.

Market pulse: Futures are adding to Wednesday’s gains rather than fading them – the regime shift is holding into a new session, and VIX below 20 confirms the market is not treating the ceasefire signal as temporary.

Options angle

Vol crush confirmed: VIX at 18, energy IV collapsing, tech flow skewed hard to calls.

VIX at 18.12 – a significant compression from the conflict-era highs that briefly pushed the fear gauge above 35. The move reflects not just Wednesday’s rally but a sustained recalibration: with the geopolitical trigger removed, implied volatility has little structural support at elevated levels and the market is unwinding the premium systematically.

The energy vol story is equally compelling. OVX – the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index and the market-standard measure of WTI 1-month implied volatility – peaked near 126 at the height of the conflict and has since declined to around 72. That remains historically elevated relative to its pre-conflict baseline of 30–35, but the direction is clear: the supply-disruption premium is leaving energy options.

In technology and high-beta growth names, options flow was directionally bullish: call/put ratios in AI infrastructure and quantum computing stocks ran 2:1 to 4:1 on Wednesday, reflecting straightforward upside buying rather than structured positioning. This is participation, not hedging.

The strategic implication heading into today: with VIX at 18 and the index at new highs, premium sellers are better positioned than premium buyers. Covered calls on large-cap tech or index positions, short put spreads in names with strong earnings setups, and energy strangles to capture the OVX normalisation are the logical plays. The caveat is the earnings calendar – late April brings mega-cap reports that will re-expand vol, so positioning should respect the term structure.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

The war premium is out, and the vol market has confirmed it with a definitive move: VIX near 18, energy IV collapsing, and tech flow skewed bullishly toward calls. The risk-off hedges placed three weeks ago are now expensive to hold and cheap to sell. Earnings season is already underway – financials have reported and Netflix reports today – with mega-cap tech (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia) in late April as the primary vol expansion trigger to watch.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Related articles/content
Options Brief - Iran deal hope PPI beat - 15 April 2026 Options Brief - Software defies the Hormuz shock - 14 April 2026 Option Brief - Iran Ceasefire Rally - 9 April 2026 Options Brief - Wednesday April 8 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Can earnings keep outrunning the macro shock? Banks say yes for now. Luxury says not so fast

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

The same macro shock helps banks that sell liquidity, hedging and advice, but hurts luxury groups that need calm and travel.
Strong bank earnings do not prove the economy is fine. They partly reflect unsettled markets doing what unsettled markets do.
Luxury weakness looks more like a mix of tourism pressure, Middle East disruption and softer discretionary demand than broad consumer collapse.

A messy macro backdrop often gets described as one giant verdict on the economy. This week’s earnings say that is too neat. Big United States banks show that volatility, trading and dealmaking can still turn uncertainty into revenue. Luxury groups show that geopolitical stress, disrupted travel and fragile high-end demand can hit sales rather quickly. Same shock, very different plumbing.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. For illustrative purposes only and based on selected market reactions discussed in the article. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The market reaction made the contrast clear without needing a spreadsheet. Bank shares generally held up or moved higher after earnings, while luxury names came under clear pressure. Investors were not making a grand judgment on the whole economy. They were reacting to which business models can still turn uncertainty into revenue, and which ones rely more heavily on confidence, travel and a steady spending mood.

When chaos becomes a product

For large banks, a messy quarter does not automatically mean a bad one. Recent results from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America showed that trading desks, advisory work and deal activity can all stay busy when markets are unsettled. That is the key point. Banks do not just sit and watch volatility. In some parts of the business, they earn from it.

When markets swing, clients tend to do more, not less. They rebalance portfolios, hedge risks, raise capital and ask advisers for help. That can support earnings even when the wider backdrop feels noisy. It is a useful reminder that macro stress is not always just a cost. For parts of finance, it can also be demand.

Still, this is not a simple all-clear. Investors know that trading-driven strength can be helpful without being fully durable. If volatility cools, if rate expectations shift again, or if companies become more cautious about deals and listings, that earnings support may look less powerful. So the bank story is strong, but it is not effortless. It depends on the kind of activity that often comes with unsettled markets, not calm ones.

Luxury needs calm, confidence and boarding passes

Luxury looks almost like the mirror opposite, but only almost. Recent updates from Hermès, Kering and LVMH suggest the sector is not collapsing, but it is clearly more exposed to today’s geopolitical strain than parts of finance. The pressure is showing up less through a broad demand cliff and more through softer travel flows, weaker airport retail, disruption in the Middle East and a consumer mood that still looks cautious rather than carefree.

Hermès is a good example. Sales still grew 5.6% at constant exchange rates, but that was below Bloomberg expectations of 7.44%. In other words, this was not a disaster. It was a reminder that even the strongest luxury names can feel it when tourism slows and regional traffic weakens.

Kering’s message was more fragile. Gucci sales fell 8% in the quarter compared to last year, much worse than the 4.3% drop analysts expected on Bloomberg. That matters because Gucci is still the emotional and financial centre of the Kering story. It also reinforces the broader point that luxury does not just sell products. It sells confidence, movement and a certain ease of spending, all of which become harder to sustain when flights are disrupted and headlines turn tense.

LVMH adds a more balanced layer. Group sales rose 1% organically, but that still fell short of analysts expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. The group still showed resilience in parts of the business, which helps explain why this is not a sector in free fall. But the broader message is still clear enough: luxury has become more exposed to travel disruption and regional instability at a time when demand was only gradually finding its footing again. That does not mean the luxury story is broken. It means the sector needs a calmer world more than banks do.

What this actually tells investors

The real lesson is not that banks are “safe” and luxury is “broken.” It is that earnings quality depends on what a company is paid to do. Banks earn from activity, spreads, hedging and advice. Luxury earns from desire, confidence, mobility and mood. When oil rises, headlines darken and routes become less predictable, those ingredients do not all move in the same direction. Some businesses get busier. Others get quieter.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is reading too much into one strong bank quarter. Trading revenue can be excellent precisely because markets are unsettled, which means it is helpful but not always repeatable. The second risk is assuming luxury weakness is only regional and temporary. If higher energy prices, weaker travel and softer confidence start feeding into broader discretionary spending, the pressure could spread beyond the Middle East link. The third risk sits between the two: if volatility stays high for the wrong reasons, it may lift trading desks in the short run but still cool borrowing, listings and corporate confidence later on.

Investor playbook

Separate macro headlines from business-model mechanics. Ask what actually drives revenue when markets turn noisy.
Watch deal pipelines and capital-markets activity, not just trading spikes, to judge whether bank strength is broadening.
Track tourism, airport retail and Gulf demand as early signals for luxury, especially in Europe.
Stay diversified across business models, because the same shock rarely sends every sector the same invoice.

Same storm, different roofs

The neat story would be that strong banks mean the economy is coping and weak luxury means the consumer is cracking. This week’s results argue for more humility. Banks are benefiting from a market that is busy, defensive and still willing to transact. Luxury is being hit by a world that feels less easy to travel through and less relaxed to spend in. Both can be true at once. For investors, that is the useful part. Macro shocks do not produce one verdict. They expose which companies get paid for turbulence and which ones quietly depend on calm. Same storm, different roofs, and very different earnings calls.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

XOM’s IV rank at 75%: what it means for premium sellers

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 06:50:00 Z

ExxonMobil has had a volatile few weeks, and its options market is reflecting that. With an IV rank near 75%, premiums are above average relative to XOM’s own history - a condition that typically favours sellers over buyers. This article explains what IV rank means, why XOM’s is elevated, and how three common strategies use elevated premiums to their advantage.

ExxonMobile: high IV and the case for selling premium

When fear elevates option premiums, disciplined sellers take notice – here is what ExxonMobil’s current volatility profile is signalling.

ExxonMobil (XOM) has endured a turbulent few weeks. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, falling oil prices, and an approaching earnings date have combined to push the stock sharply lower – and to push its options premiums sharply higher. With an IV rank of 78.34% and an IV Percentile at 92%, XOM is currently one of the more interesting candidates in the energy sector for traders considering premium-selling strategies. This brief explains why – and what to keep in mind.

The setup: volatility finds ExxonMobil

A volatile stock price is not always a sign of fundamental deterioration – but it is always a signal worth reading.

XOM has given back meaningful ground in recent sessions, closing at $148.77 on 15 April and now trading below its 50-day moving average at $154.56. Two significant single-day declines were driven by a combination of Middle East geopolitical risk, energy demand uncertainty, and investor positioning ahead of Q1 earnings. After reaching nearly $175 in early 2026, the stock has retraced sharply – a move that is now fully reflected in options pricing. The company reports first-quarter 2026 results on 1 May, and its own guidance suggests material earnings headwinds – including negative timing effects estimated at between $3.5 billion and $4.9 billion, partly attributable to disruptions across its LNG operations.

XOM (1W/1D) — After peaking near $175 in early 2026, ExxonMobil has pulled back sharply to $148.77, now trading below its 50-day SMA ($154.56) while remaining well above its 200-day SMA ($125.55). Source: SaxoTrader, 15 April 2026.

Analyst sentiment is mixed. A majority retain Buy ratings, but recent downgrades and new Underperform ratings from sell-side firms reflect genuine disagreement about near-term valuation. That disagreement – combined with energy sector macro uncertainty – is precisely what elevates option premiums.

Understanding IV rank: context matters more than absolutes

Implied volatility in isolation tells you little – IV rank tells you where premiums stand relative to their own history.

Implied volatility (IV) is the market’s forward-looking estimate of how much a stock might move over a given period. It is embedded in every option’s price: the more uncertain the market, the higher the IV, and the more expensive options become – for buyers seeking protection and for speculators seeking leverage alike.

IV rank contextualises this. Rather than asking “is IV high?”, it asks: “where does today’s IV sit relative to the range of IV levels observed over the past 52 weeks?” XOM’s IV rank currently stands at 78.34%, meaning that on approximately 78 out of every 100 trading days over the past year, its implied volatility was lower than it is today. The IV Percentile – a closely related but distinct measure – comes in at 92%, indicating that current premiums sit in the 92nd percentile of all observed IV levels over the same period. Whichever measure you use, the message is the same: options are more expensive than usual relative to XOM’s own recent history.

XOM options data as of 15 April 2026 — IV rank at 78.34% and IV percentile at 92% confirm premiums are elevated relative to the stock's own history. Current IV (32.44%) sits above historical volatility (29.57%), with a put/call volume ratio of 0.34 suggesting call-side activity is dominant. Source: barchart.com.

For buyers, this is a caution flag: you are paying above-average prices for exposure. For premium sellers, it works the other direction – you receive above-average compensation for the risk you take on. The IV rank does not tell you to sell. It tells you that, if you were already inclined to sell, the conditions are more favourable than on most days.

Why XOM’s IV is elevated right now

Two distinct forces are compounding each other – one structural, one event-driven.

The first is the energy sector’s macro backdrop. Oil prices are navigating a complex environment: potential normalisation of Middle East geopolitics could remove one of the key risk premiums that has been supporting energy prices, while concerns about global demand in a slowing economic environment and ongoing uncertainty around OPEC supply discipline create a wide range of plausible outcomes for oil over the coming months. Energy stocks are sensitive to oil price moves in both directions, and that sensitivity keeps implied volatility structurally elevated relative to many other sectors.

The second driver is the earnings event. ExxonMobil reports Q1 2026 results on 1 May. Ahead of any binary catalyst – and an earnings release is one of the most predictable binary events in the equity calendar – options markets tend to price in elevated IV as participants seek protection against sharp post-announcement moves. XOM’s own guidance for material earnings headwinds adds to that uncertainty, widening the range of plausible outcomes for the stock on and after earnings day.

These two forces – sector-level macro uncertainty and a near-term earnings catalyst – are compounding each other, producing an IV rank that sits well above the median for this name.

The premium-selling opportunity: how elevated IV changes the equation

Selling premium when IV rank is high is not about predicting direction – it is about being compensated more richly for the range you define.

When IV is elevated, common premium-selling structures generate more income for the same strike distance from the current price. This has two practical implications. First, the break-even point moves further from the current price – the stock has to move more against the seller before the position loses money. Second, if IV subsequently normalises – as it commonly does after an earnings event passes, a phenomenon known as volatility crush – the value of the sold options declines independently of any stock price move, adding a second potential source of profit.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Three structures that options traders commonly consider in high-IV environments:

Covered call: For investors already holding XOM shares, selling a call option above the current stock price generates income while capping upside to the chosen strike. Elevated IV means the call premium received is higher than it would be on a typical day.
Cash-secured put: Selling a put option below the current stock price obligates the seller to purchase XOM at that strike if the stock falls to that level. The seller collects the premium upfront and effectively sets a price at which they are comfortable owning the stock. Higher IV means higher premium received for the same level of commitment.
Bull put spread: Selling a put and simultaneously buying a lower-strike put defines the maximum possible loss, making this a defined-risk alternative. The spread still benefits from elevated IV through richer premium on the sold leg, while the purchased put provides a floor on risk.

Each of these structures expresses a broadly neutral-to-bullish view on XOM: the seller is not predicting the stock will rise, but rather that it will not fall significantly below the strike they have chosen. The elevated IV rank simply improves the terms on which that view can be expressed.

What to consider before acting

Favourable conditions reduce risk – they do not eliminate it.

IV can stay elevated or rise further. An IV rank of 75% does not mean IV cannot reach 90% or 100%. If the geopolitical environment deteriorates, or if oil markets face a new shock before earnings, XOM could move significantly beyond what the market is currently implying. Selling premium into a rising volatility environment is painful.

Earnings carry binary risk. The earnings release on 1 May is a genuine binary event. If ExxonMobil’s results disappoint relative to already-lowered expectations – or if guidance for the remainder of 2026 surprises negatively – the stock can move sharply in either direction. Selling puts before the earnings date means direct exposure to that move.

Energy-sector idiosyncratic risk is non-trivial. XOM is not a utility. Its earnings and stock price are sensitive to oil prices, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic demand in ways that can produce rapid, large moves. Position sizing matters proportionally more here than in lower-volatility names.

Timing around the catalyst. Some traders prefer to sell premium after an earnings event, once the binary catalyst has passed and IV has crushed. This sacrifices the elevated pre-earnings premium but avoids the binary risk of the event itself. Both approaches represent different risk/reward trade-offs – neither is universally superior.

The takeaway

IV rank is one signal among many, but it is a useful one. At approximately 75%, XOM’s options market is telling you that uncertainty is elevated relative to most of the past year – and that premium sellers are currently being compensated more generously than usual for taking on defined risk in this name.

Whether that compensation is attractive enough depends on your own assessment of the energy sector, your view on how ExxonMobil’s earnings might play out on 1 May, and your capacity to hold a position through what could be a volatile few weeks. High IV rank opens a window. It does not tell you whether to step through it.

Understand the structure before placing it, size positions relative to your overall portfolio, and have a clear plan for what happens if the stock moves against you.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 16 April 2026

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 06:32:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 16 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Wall Street hit records, Europe slipped on earnings misses, and Asia stayed firm as peace hopes and chip demand lifted sentiment.
Volatility: Record highs, easing VIX, Iran diplomacy, oil risk, downside hedging
Digital Assets: Risk-on tone, BTC above 75k, IBIT/ETHA strength, altcoin participation, constructive flow
Fixed Income: Global bond yields steady
Currencies: USD weakness continues, AUDUSD hits multi-year high, JPY volatile on Ministry of Finance intervention talk.
Commodities: Oil steady; silver supported by another annual deficit
Macro events: US Weekly Jobless Claims, US March Industrial Production

Macro headlines

Washington and Tehran are weighing a ceasefire extension to allow more peace talks, while the US naval blockade keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and markets on edge. Iran has warned it could retaliate by suspending shipments in nearby waters, and a second round of talks is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program.
US businesses pulled back on hiring and spending due to uncertainty from the Iran war, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book report.
President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't step down when his term expires on May 15. On Tuesday, Kevin M. Warsh will make his case to the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed and wields significant power over his ability to clinch a confirmation. That leaves the administration with only 24 days to get Mr. Warsh through an initial committee vote before the full Senate takes up his candidacy.
Australia March Employment Change was +17.9k overall vs. +20k expected and the Unemployment Rate was steady near 4.3%. Fully time employment growth was a robust +52.5k for the month, while Part time employment dropped -34.6k.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite the energy shock from the Iran conflict, noting markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets.
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, postponing their verdict on whether the Iran war fallout warrants a response.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are prepared for bold action on foreign exchange if needed after discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
US import prices rose 0.8% m/m in March 2026 after 0.9% in February, below the 2% forecast, with fuel up 2.9% and nonfuel imports up 0.6%. They were 2.1% higher y/y, the biggest rise since December 2024.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Feb GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial Production
1130 – ECB Minutes from March Meeting
1230 – US Weekly Jobless Claims
1230 – US Apr. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlooi
1315 – US March Industrial Production
1430 – EIAs Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change

Earnings this week

Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Marsh & McLennan, Travelers Companies, Infosys, Tesco
Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Ericsson

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,022.95 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4% to 26,204.58, both record closes, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% to 48,463.72. The mood stayed risk-on as hopes for fresh US-Iran diplomacy eased oil fears and bank earnings added another layer of reassurance. Allbirds surged 582.3% after the struggling shoemaker said it would pivot to AI infrastructure, rebrand as NewBird AI, and raise $50 million to buy graphics processing units for cloud computing services. Tesla jumped 7.6% after Elon Musk said the AI5 chip design was complete, Robinhood rallied 10.4% after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved ending the old $25,000 day-trading rule for smaller accounts, Morgan Stanley gained 4.5% on strong investment banking and wealth results, and Bank of America rose 1.8% after a profit beat. Markets now watch Netflix, rates, and whether diplomacy keeps doing the heavy lifting.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4% to 617.27, the FTSE 100 lost 0.5% to 10,559.58, while Germany’s DAX edged up 0.1% to 24,066.70. The region lagged Wall Street as luxury and chip-equipment stocks ran into a tougher earnings test, with oil still clouding the inflation outlook. Hermès dropped 8.2% after first-quarter sales missed expectations as Middle East demand and tourism weakened, Kering fell 9.3% as Gucci sales disappointed, and ASML lost 4.2% even after raising its 2026 outlook, which is a neat reminder that strong results and a happy market are not always the same thing. Oil, European Central Bank rate bets, and more earnings stay in focus.
Asia: Asian equities finished firmer in the latest full session, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 2.1% to 6,091.39, Japan’s Nikkei 225 adding 0.4% to 58,134.24, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edging up 0.3% to 25,947.32. Relief on geopolitics and steady artificial intelligence demand kept sentiment supported. TSMC rose 1.2% ahead of results, and CATL then reinforced the region’s growth story by beating first-quarter estimates with net income up 48.5% and revenue up 52.5%, helped by stronger energy storage demand and cost control. Asia now looks back to Taiwan, where TSMC has since reported a 58.0% jump in quarterly profit, keeping the chip cycle very much alive.

Volatility

Volatility continued to ease as the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record 7,022.95, decisively clearing the 7,000 level, while the VIX slipped to 18.17. The tone reflects improving sentiment around potential US-Iran diplomacy, a pullback in oil from recent highs, and a supportive start to earnings season. For investors, the key takeaway is that markets are stabilising, but not risk-free. Oil remains elevated near $95, and the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, meaning any negative headline could quickly reverse the current calm.
Expected move for the S&P 500 this week: options pricing implies a move of around 55.9 points into the 17 April expiry, or roughly 0.8% from current levels.
Today’s skew indicator: same-day SPX options still show a preference for protection, with near-the-money puts around 7,020–7,025 trading at higher implied volatility than comparable calls. Short-term volatility has eased (VIX1D 12.65, VIX9D 16.01), but the structure suggests investors remain cautious beneath the surface.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are firmer, following the broader improvement in global risk appetite. Bitcoin traded around $75,059, with Ethereum near $2,358, while listed vehicles IBIT and ETHA also moved higher to roughly $42.56 and $17.97. This broad-based strength matters because it shows the recovery is not limited to crypto-native markets, but is also visible through regulated ETF products used by mainstream investors.
Across the wider market, XRP held near $1.41 and Solana around $85.5, pointing to a modest but broad participation beyond bitcoin. Crypto-related equities also strengthened, reinforcing the constructive tone. Options flow supports this view: investors added upside exposure in COIN and MSTR, alongside call activity in IBIT and ETHA, while selective downside hedging remained in place. The overall picture is constructive, but still disciplined rather than euphoric.

Fixed Income

US treasuries were steady in the lower portion of recent trading ranges Wednesday and early Thursday, with the benchmark 2-year US treasury yield near 3.75% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield near 4.27%.
Japan’s government bonds were steady after Japan’s Minister of Finance indicated central banks are cautious about hiking rates amidst the Middle East crisis. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield nudged slightly lower to 1.37%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell a basis point to 2.41%.

Commodities

Oil has steadied, with Brent holding near USD 95 on signs the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key commodities from the Persian Gulf. This has triggered a major supply shock, the impact of which continues to build globally, with the relative calm and sub-USD 100 futures prices not fully reflecting the reality in the physical market.
Silver rose back above USD 80 for the first time in a month after the Silver Institute, in its annual outlook, said the market is expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year. The shortfall is being driven by robust demand for bars and coins alongside declining supply, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen by 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces.
Gold bounced back above USD 4,800, supported by silver’s tailwind and lower oil prices amid hopes that US-Iran diplomacy may ease inflation risks. In addition, a softer dollar has underpinned the recent recovery, with a sustained break above USD 4,850 likely needed to attract fresh momentum and technical buying.

Currencies

The US dollar remained weak, though the pace of declines slowed, EURUSD tested as high as 1.1824 early Thursday after closing Wednesday near 1.1800. Elsewhere, AUDUSD pulled to new highs since 2022, stretching above the March high of 0.7187 and nearly pressing to 0.7200.
The JPY was volatile Thursday in Asian trading hours as Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned of bold action to support the JPY after saying that she had discussed currencies with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. She also indicated central banker reluctance to consider rate hikes in the context of the uncertainty caused by the war in Iran and higher energy prices, suggesting to some that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike rates later this month (the odds of a April 28 rate hike hit fresh lows of 5% on Thursday). USDJPY traded as low as 158.27 after closing Wednesday at 159.00, but rallied back to 118.85 as of early Thursday hours in Europe.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Options Brief - Iran deal hope, PPI beat - 15 April 2026

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 09:51:00 Z

Options Brief – Iran deal hope, PPI beat – 15 April 2026

Oil collapsed 8% on a White House hint, PPI came in cold, and equities built on their recovery – with a live binary ceasefire deadline six sessions away.

Tuesday’s session delivered two simultaneous tailwinds: March wholesale inflation came in well below expectations, and the White House signalled that a second round of US–Iran talks was under discussion ahead of the April 21 ceasefire expiry. WTI crude futures fell roughly 8% to close near $91 per barrel – the sharpest single-session drop of the conflict period – while the S&P 500 gained 1.18% and the Nasdaq added 1.96%. VIX closed at 18.36, a notably low close for the conflict period. Risk assets lifted broadly on the session; the April 21 deadline remains a live event risk worth monitoring closely.

Headline driver

Deal optimism and an inflation surprise arrived on the same day – markets took both.

US–Iran talks signal: The two-week ceasefire expires on April 21. Weekend negotiations in Islamabad ended without a deal – Iran rejected a US proposal to suspend nuclear activity for 20 years, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. However, President Trump indicated new talks “could be happening over the next two days,” and the White House confirmed a second round is under consideration. Markets priced the headline optimistically: WTI crude futures fell roughly 8%, the energy sector declined more than 2%, and equities rallied on the prospect that the blockade may resolve before it inflicts lasting macro damage.
March PPI – better than feared: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in March, against a consensus of 1.1%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, gained just 0.1% versus a 0.5% forecast; services inflation was flat. Energy prices surged 8.5% within the index – gasoline alone jumped 15.7% – but the feared second-order pass-through into services pricing has not yet materialised. Year-on-year, headline PPI stands at 4.0% and core at 3.8%, both elevated, but the session-on-session miss gave markets permission to look past the number.

Market pulse: Geopolitical and inflation signals moved in the same direction on Tuesday – both suggested resolution rather than escalation, and positioning adjusted swiftly.

Looking ahead – headline driver

Iran headlines remain the dominant risk in either direction heading into today. Confirmation of resumed talks would add momentum to the risk-on move; a signal of breakdown or ceasefire extension uncertainty would reverse it sharply. On the inflation side, CPI data due later this week will be scrutinised for evidence that Tuesday’s PPI miss reflects a genuine trend rather than a one-month anomaly.

Market snapshot

Equities rally, crude collapses, and VIX hits its lowest close since the war began.

S&P 500: +1.18%, building on Monday’s reversal and approaching pre-war highs.
Nasdaq Composite: +1.96%, led by communication services and consumer discretionary.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.66%.
WTI crude oil (May futures): approximately –8% to close near $91.28 per barrel – the sharpest single-session drop of the conflict period, driven by easing supply-risk fears on diplomacy headlines.
Energy sector (S&P 500): –2%+, the clear session laggard as crude sold off sharply on deal optimism.
BlackRock (BLK): +3.02% to $1,054.56 on Q1 2026 earnings beat – adjusted EPS of $12.53 vs consensus of $11.67; revenue +27% year-on-year to $6.7 billion; record quarterly net inflows of $130 billion.
Oracle (ORCL): approximately +5% on an expanded agreement with Bloom Energy to purchase up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cell power for AI data centre infrastructure – not earnings-related.
Bloom Energy (BE): +22%+ on the Oracle fuel cell deal, additionally supported by a Jefferies price target upgrade.
CarMax (KMX): –15.6% (intraday) despite beating adjusted EPS estimates – a GAAP net loss of $0.85 per share, driven by a $141.3 million goodwill impairment charge and restructuring costs, overwhelmed the headline beat.

Market pulse: VIX at 18.36 reflects a market that has substantially repriced geopolitical risk lower – but has done so on a ceasefire that expires in six sessions.

Looking ahead – market snapshot

Equities enter Wednesday near their recovery highs, concentrating headline risk asymmetrically: deal confirmation provides incremental upside, but a ceasefire breakdown from elevated levels would likely trigger a sharp reversal. Earnings flow remains a secondary vol catalyst, with additional financial sector results due this week.

Options angle

VIX at 18.36 with April 21 looming – equity vol compressed, energy premium elevated, live binary in six sessions.

VIX closed at 18.36 on Tuesday – below its long-run historical average and among its lowest closing levels of the conflict period. This compression is not irrational given the softer PPI and deal optimism, but it is time-limited: the April 21 ceasefire expiry is a live event risk that, in our view, the current vol surface is not fully pricing. A VIX at 18 implies smooth continuation of the recovery; it is not, in our view, pricing a ceasefire breakdown.

In energy names, the ~8% single-session collapse in WTI creates a dynamic where realised vol remains elevated but implied vol is compressing. Calendar spreads in energy names straddling the April 21 deadline are one way to play that dynamic with defined risk: elevated front-month premium, cheaper back-month, and the event resolves the spread either way. This is a trade idea, not a directional view – size accordingly. Long straddles on WTI ETFs are the alternative for those who want direct commodity exposure without single-name risk.

BlackRock’s +3.02% close following a clean Q1 beat is a textbook earnings vol crush – IV in BLK and large-cap financials is now at its lowest in weeks. Short-dated iron condors in this segment offer attractive theta collection. The CarMax case makes the contrarian point: a GAAP net loss from a goodwill impairment overwhelmed an adjusted EPS beat, driving a –15.6% intraday move despite the headline number clearing the bar. Any similarly structured earnings report this season – adjusted beat masking a large GAAP item – warrants a long straddle rather than a short strangle ahead of the release.

Looking ahead – options

The April 21 ceasefire deadline dominates the near-term volatility landscape. Any Iran headline is likely to move both energy and equity volatility simultaneously, making defined-risk structures preferable to naked directional exposure into the event. The secondary macro focus is how markets continue to digest last Friday’s CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, especially if the two releases point to a less consistent inflation signal for rates.

Key takeaways

The White House signalled a second round of US–Iran talks is under consideration; the ceasefire expires April 21 with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
March PPI rose 0.5% vs a 1.1% consensus; core PPI came in at 0.1% vs 0.5% expected – the energy shock has not yet passed through into services pricing.
S&P 500 closed +1.18%; Nasdaq +1.96%; Dow +0.66% – equities approached their recovery highs.
WTI crude futures fell roughly 8% to approximately $91.28 per barrel – the sharpest single-session decline of the conflict period, driven by easing supply-risk fears on diplomacy headlines.
Energy sector fell more than 2%, the clear session underperformer.
VIX closed at 18.36 – below its long-run average – despite a live ceasefire deadline six sessions away.
BlackRock beat Q1 earnings (EPS $12.53 vs $11.67 consensus) and closed +3.02% at $1,054.56; financials IV now compressed – iron condors offer attractive theta collection.
Oracle rose approximately 5% on an expanded Bloom Energy fuel cell deal for AI data centres – not earnings-related; Bloom Energy surged 22%+ on the same announcement.
CarMax fell 15.6% intraday despite an adjusted EPS beat, driven by a GAAP net loss of $0.85/share from a $141.3 million impairment charge – a reminder that GAAP items can overwhelm adjusted beats in earnings season.
April 21 binary is the dominant options event: calendar spreads and long straddles in energy names offer the cleanest defined-risk approach to the ceasefire outcome.

Concluding remarks

Tuesday’s session handed traders two simultaneous tailwinds: a PPI print that kept the inflation-spiral narrative off the table for now, and a geopolitical signal that the most disruptive trade route closure in recent memory may be approaching resolution. Risk assets lifted broadly. What vol markets have not, in our view, fully reflected is the downside scenario – a VIX at 18.36 is consistent with a smooth recovery, not with a ceasefire that could break down in six sessions. The options setup heading into today favours defined-risk structures around the binary: let the calendar do the work, and avoid naked directional exposure before the deadline clears.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Related articles/content
Options Brief - Software defies the Hormuz shock - 14 April 2026 Option Brief - Iran Ceasefire Rally - 9 April 2026 Options Brief - Wednesday April 8 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank