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Front-end vol drains, chips run - Options Brief - 13 August 2026

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

The inflation print landed exactly where the market wanted it, and one-day S&P 500 volatility gave up almost a quarter of its value in a session. Further out, the curve flatly refused to follow.

MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 14.55 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (136.54) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.10

The inflation print took premium out of the front of the curve and left the back untouched. One-day S&P 500 volatility fell 24.44% to 9.46 and nine-day volatility 11.42% to 11.09, while one-year volatility gave up 0.57% and front-month VIX futures rose 0.73% to 18.10.
Friday's window lost more than the calendar explains. S&P 500 options price 48 points into the 14 August expiry, about 0.62%, against roughly 57 points that pure time decay would have left from Wednesday's 70.
The index gain was narrow and the tape sold into it. The S&P 500 added 0.26% while its equal-weighted version managed 0.16%, and confirmed-opening flow in semiconductors and the mega-caps was led by call selling rather than buying.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

July consumer prices came in exactly at consensus and pushed the odds of a September Federal Reserve hike down to 40.1% from 54.4% a week earlier, which was enough to carry the chipmakers and drain the event premium that had built up all week.

Saxo's Market Quick Take covers the macro detail.

Market snapshot

US (Wednesday 12 August close): S&P 500 7,748.50 (+0.26%), Nasdaq 100 29,742.60 (+0.74%), Dow 53,775.39 (-0.04%), IWM 302.71 (+0.57%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.16%, so the advance leaned on a small group of names. Nvidia gained 3.03% and AMD 1.82%, while Meta fell 3.38% and Microsoft 2.26%. CoreWeave surged 19.2% and Cerebras dropped 16%. Cisco beat on both lines and lifted its AI infrastructure order forecast to USD 9bn from USD 5bn, then faded after hours.
Europe: Stoxx 600 659.49 (-0.16%), DAX 26,331.07 (-0.23%), SMI 14,449.47 (-0.86%). Renewed Middle East tension outweighed the benign inflation read. SAP fell 2.6% and Prosus 5.9%, while ABN Amro touched a record and Vestas jumped roughly 19.7%.
Asia (Thursday session, in progress): Kospi 6,822.37 (+3.70%) in a second consecutive surge, Nikkei up 1.74% to 68,702.12, Hang Seng 25,487.42 (+0.19%) after Tencent beat on revenue at CNY 204.78bn and missed on profit.
Commodities and rates: Brent eased to USD 88.82 and WTI to USD 83.10 after six consecutive gains. Spot gold closed above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months, and corn rallied 4.6% on a USDA yield cut. The US 10-year yield sat at 4.676%, the 2-year at 4.184% and the 30-year at 5.239%. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo pricing for full details.
Market regime (rules based read): Low Vol Bull, VIX 14.55, 20-day realised volatility 13.7% (increasing), S&P 500 3.26% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 13 August 2026, approximately 07:30 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 12 August, yesterday's positioning and not today's price action.

Single-name flow was credit-led. The largest confirmed-opening prints in semiconductors and the mega-caps were sold rather than bought, with near-dated upside written in the chip leaders and longer-dated downside opened underneath it. That combination reads as holders monetising an extended move and paying for cover, not as anyone pressing a new view. The clearest paid-up buying was defensive and smaller in size.
Sector and ETF flow carried more premium than direction. The index tape leaned to puts on premium share while trade counts leaned the other way, and most of the put weight printed mid-market inside packages that give no readable side. Where the side was explicit, index puts were sold. The one clean directional cluster of the session sat in gold, and the defensive sector complex was busy with long-dated protection paid for by written upside.

Volatility surface - 13 August 2026, approx. 07:30 CET

VIX term structure

VIX 14.55 (-4.78%), the lowest close since early January
VIX1D 9.46 (-24.44%)
VIX9D 11.09 (-11.42%)
VIX3M 18.53 · VIX6M 20.82 · VIX1Y 22.62

VIX futures

Front-month 18.10 (+0.73%), a 3.55-point premium to spot, widened from 3.12 in Wednesday's snapshot
Second-month 19.60 (+0.52%), curve in contango

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 136.54 (+0.70%), higher on a session when the index rose and volatility fell
COR3M 10.79 (-6.74%)
DSPX 34.81 (-1.44%)

Other volatility measures

VVIX 88.50 (-2.64%) · MOVE 72.09 (-7.48%)
VXN 20.97 (-6.30%), 1.44 times VIX
GVZ 25.58 (-1.58%) · OVX 52.34 (-4.82%) · VXSLV 48.31 (+0.08%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

Today is priced as an ordinary session. S&P 500 options carry 33 points, about 0.43%, for this afternoon's expiry, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. That figure sits below the 0.62% priced into Friday even though producer prices and weekly claims both land today. In our view the market may be treating the inflation question as settled by Wednesday's release rather than reopened by the pipeline data.
Friday's premium fell faster than the clock. The 14 August expiry priced 70 points two sessions ago with three sessions to run, and flat volatility alone would have decayed that to roughly 57. It now prices 48. In our assessment the missing 9 points may be the cleanest evidence that implied volatility itself came out, rather than the position simply ageing.
The relief was bought only at the very front. One-day and nine-day volatility gave up double-digit percentages while one-year volatility barely moved and both listed VIX futures closed higher, leaving the front contract 3.55 points above spot against 3.12 the previous session. In our view that shape may suggest the market accepted a calmer week without accepting a calmer autumn.
Tail cover held its bid while correlation kept falling. SKEW rose to 136.54 on a day the index gained and headline volatility dropped, an unusual pairing, and three-month implied correlation fell to 10.79. In our assessment the combination may point to a market comfortable with index-level calm while still paying up for the wings, with single-name dispersion doing the work underneath, a 6.4 point gap between Nvidia and Meta inside a 0.26% index session being the illustration.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.

The semiconductor leg extends

The chip complex is now two sessions into a run that has spread well beyond the US listings. The DRAM index gained 7.68% to 54.80 on Wednesday, the semiconductor ETF 2.08%, and Korea's market has added roughly 7.5% across Wednesday and Thursday with the Korea country ETF up 5.16% in the US session.

What makes this worth watching from a volatility seat is that the options tape moved the other way. Confirmed-opening flow in semiconductors on Wednesday was dominated by call selling, concentrated in the memory names and in the expiry that captures the next chip earnings date. Nasdaq 100 volatility fell 6.30% on the same day the sector led.

In our view a rally that the options market is writing into, rather than chasing, may leave less upside convexity priced than the price action alone would imply. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo pricing for details.

Today's catalysts

08:00 CET UK second-quarter GDP, June trade and industrial production
10:00 CET Norway rate decision
11:00 CET Eurozone June industrial production
14:30 CET US July producer price index and weekly initial jobless claims
19:00 CET US Treasury sells USD 25bn in 30-year bonds
Earnings: Applied Materials, Adyen, RWE, Orsted, AP Moller, NetEase, Nu Holdings, Brookfield

Conclusion

Wednesday's brief argued that the market had left its inflation hedging late and paid for it almost entirely inside a single session. That is exactly how it resolved: the front of the curve gave the premium straight back, and nothing past three months moved much at all.

In our view the reading worth carrying into today is the widening gap between spot volatility at 14.55 and the front future at 18.10, because it may say the calm is being priced as local rather than durable. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This content is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation. The author holds no position in the instruments referenced at the time of writing.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

The FX Trader: Long US yields keep the dollar and carry trades alive.

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:35:00 Z

USD edges higher after in-line CPI

The latest

US CPI fails to knock down long-end yields – or the US dollar. Yesterday’s July US CPI report landed almost precisely on expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and core CPI up 0.2%. The kneejerk reaction was straightforward enough: Treasury yields fell across the curve and the US dollar weakened. But the more interesting development came later, as only the front end of the Treasury curve retained much of the move. The result was a bull steepening of the US yield curve, with longer-dated yields giving back much of their initial decline.

That distinction matters for the US dollar. A modest repricing of the next Fed move can pull the two-year yield lower, but the dollar may prove considerably harder to dislodge if the US 10-year and especially the 30-year remain near their cycle highs. The 10-year yield is back near 4.70% this morning. Longer-term US yields are increasingly about more than the precise timing of the next Fed move, with fiscal concerns, inflation risk and the sheer supply of US government debt all part of the equation. For FX traders, the simple point is that a softer Fed path at the front end does not necessarily translate into a softer US dollar if the rest of the curve refuses to rally.

The yen still can't find its feet. USDJPY remains above 159 – likely in part due to still-elevated long US treasury yields. Bloomberg reported overnight, citing unnamed sources, that Prime Minister Takaichi is comfortable with a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Short-dated Japanese yields and then yen barely managed to even react to this.

Japanese wholesale inflation this morning could also prompt Bank of Japan to move sooner, as July producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year. Markets have increasingly brought forward expectations for the next Bank of Japan hike toward September. Still, the JPY reaction has been modest. If intervention, speculation that Takaichi has become more tolerant of a hike and very elevated producer-price inflation are collectively unable to generate a durable JPY rally, the market is telling us how powerful the carry headwind remains while US long-term yields stay this high. But the Ministry of Finance can unleash another round of JPY intervention at any time, possibly if USDJPY nears or exceeds 160.00 again.

A broader carry trade overlay? Yesterday's price action suggested that the story extends beyond JPY. EURCHF pushed to a new 2026 high above 0.9380, continuing the pressure on the zero-yielding Swiss franc. EURSEK meanwhile burst back above 11.00 and traded toward the 11.05 area, while NOKSEK flows may be playing a part in SEK weakness, as that pair pushed back through parity and as high as around 1.0100. That looks at least partly like a carry-trade signal: provided markets remain relatively calm, investors continue to have an incentive to fund in the lowest yielding currencies.

Bottom line(s): If long-dated US yields remain near their cycle highs – or break above them – the dollar may remain firm even if the market continues to trim expectations for Fed tightening at the front end. A 30-year T-bond auction is up later today. Something needs to change in the carry trade and risk sentiment dynamic for JPY to catch a bid (and reverse the other seeming carry-focused action of late in CHF and SEK).

Chart focus: EURSEK

EURSEK is worth putting back on the radar after its sudden push above 11.00 and toward 11.05. Sweden's policy rate remains at just 1.75%, where the Riksbank left it in June while explicitly acknowledging some probability that rates would have to rise later this year.

That makes next week's meeting unusually interesting even if no policy move is expected immediately. The Riksbank makes its decision on Wednesday, August 19 and publishes it on Thursday, August 20. The September decision then comes on September 24 and, unlike next week's meeting, includes a new full Monetary Policy Report and rate path. Market pricing has been assigning something close to even odds to a hike by that September meeting.

The question for EURSEK is whether the Riksbank is prepared to push back against the latest krona weakness. SEK had enjoyed a substantial re-rating earlier in the year, helped by a better European growth narrative and the prospect that the Riksbank's easing cycle was finished. But at 1.75%, Swedish rates offer little carry protection if the market begins to favour funding currencies again.

A sustained EURSEK break higher from here would bring the upper end of the broader 2026 range back into play. Conversely, any hawkish pushback from the Riksbank next week – particularly explicit guidance that the September meeting is live – could quickly make the latest move above 11.00 look like a false break.

Source: Saxo

Ahead: can the US long bond behave?
The immediate calendar is relatively thin, leaving geopolitical headlines around the Strait of Hormuz as the largest unpredictable source of volatility. Oil remains capable of making a chunky move in either direction on any indication that passage through the strait is normalising – or becoming still more disrupted. Brent remains close to $90 per barrel.

For the US dollar, again, today's 30-year Treasury auction may be more interesting than usual given where long-end yields are trading. The Treasury is scheduled to auction the long bond at 1700 GMT time today. Strong demand could finally provide some relief at the long end, while an ugly auction that sends the 30-year yield toward fresh cycle highs could provide another leg of support for the dollar – and perhaps another reason for USDJPY to pressure the authorities' pain threshold around 160.
Norges Bank today: nothing expected, but watch the guidance and policy forecasts as September is seen at better than even odds for a rate hike.

Tomorrow brings July US Retail Sales. Beyond that, the next obvious set-piece event for the US dollar is the August 27-29 Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will have an opportunity to reset the Fed's communications after his performance at the latest FOMC meeting was widely panned.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The big positive JPY impulse from the intervention has continued to fade, but the key USDJPY is back near the key 160 psychological level. Elsewhere, CHF weakness sticks out as the only prominent theme besides the recent firming in gold and silver. NZD was lower again overnight on a soft NZ Q3 inflation expectations survey.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

Little new to grab onto here in the individual pairs as trend status for JPY pairs is mostly hopelessly caught in the churning from intervention impulses and backfilling, while the USD status in many pairs looks negative, but is still an open question and partly caught up in the JPY drama.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - Cooler CPI lifts chipmakers as Brent extends its run - 13 August 2026

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 06:35:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US inflation cooled to 3.4% and left the rate debate broadly where it stood
Equities: Chipmakers carried a benign inflation print while Cisco's beat-and-raise was faded after hours
Volatility: Event premium drained from the front of the volatility curve while longer-dated cover barely moved
Digital Assets: Miners outran a quiet spot tape as attention turned to Friday's SEC vote
Commodities: Corn jumps on yield cut as hot weather bites, while gold and oil take a breather
Fixed Income: US long-dated yields remained near cycle highs, short-dated yield dipped slightly after the US CPI release.
Currencies: USD edges higher after in-line CPI data. EURCHF hits new high for the year on weak CHF. SEK sharply lower.

Macro

US inflation slowed to 3.4% y/y in July from 3.5% as expected, easing Fed rate-hike bets, as energy pressures eased. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, with shelter and food both up 0.1%, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (from 2.6%), all in line with expectations.
Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that her government supports a near-term BoJ rate hike, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg.
Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% y/y in July, slightly below 7.3% in June and 7.4% expected. On the month, prices edged up 0.1% after a revised 0.5% gain, the weakest increase in five months.
Germany’s inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in July from 2.3%, driven by an 8.3% jump in energy and higher motor fuel costs after tax relief ended. Services inflation eased to 2.9%, food stayed at 0.4%, core dipped to 2.4%, and CPI rose 0.8% m/m; EU-harmonized inflation also reached 2.8%.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK 2Q GDP
0600 – UK June Trade and Industrial Production
0800 – Norway Rate Decision
0900 – Eurozone June Industrial Production
1230 – US July PPI
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1700 – US to sell USD 25 billion 30-year Bonds

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: US equities closed mostly higher as the in-line CPI print eased rate-hike fears. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748.50, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.74% to 29,742.60 and a one-month high, and the Russell 2000 added 0.61%, while the Dow was flat at 53,775.39. The index move hides a wide split: semiconductors carried the gain, Nvidia up 3.03% and AMD up 1.82%, while Meta fell 3.38% and Microsoft 2.26%. Earnings drove the rest. Cisco beat on both lines and raised its AI infrastructure order forecast to USD 9 billion from USD 5 billion, then fell around 4% after hours to 118.8 and held the loss. CoreWeave surged 19.2% on a USD 104 billion backlog and Lumentum rallied 13.6%, while Cerebras fell 16% on a double miss and Coherent slid 8% after hours on soft guidance. In our view the market paid up for the pure AI infrastructure names and faded the incumbents regardless of the print.
Europe: European equities edged lower as renewed Middle East tension overshadowed the benign US inflation backdrop. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 659.48, snapping a seven-day winning streak, with the DAX down 0.2% to 26,331.07, the CAC 40 off 0.5% to 8,674.94, the FTSE 100 down 0.1% to 10,833.15 and the SMI weakest at 14,449.47, down 0.9%. SAP fell 2.6% and Prosus 5.9%, the two largest declines in the index, while ABN Amro rose as much as 6.3% to a record high on a Q2 beat and guidance raise and Vestas jumped roughly 19.7% after lifting its full-year margin guidance.
Asia: The semiconductor rally has extended into a second session. Korea's Kospi surged a further 3.71% to 6,823.27 this morning, after Wednesday's roughly 3% gain on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.74% to 68,702.12. The Hang Seng steadied at 25,485.08, up 0.18%, after lagging on Wednesday as hedge funds cut China exposure to a five-year low, with net allocation at 6% in July. Mainland China firmed, the China A50 up 0.74%, while Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.30%. Tencent beat on revenue at CNY 204.78 billion but missed on profit as capital expenditure rose 65% from the prior quarter.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

The in-line CPI print drained event premium across the curve. VIX fell 4.8% to 14.55, its lowest since 9 January, but the collapse was concentrated at the front: VIX1D dropped 24.4% to 9.46 and VIX9D 11.4% to 11.09. VXN (Nasdaq Volatility) fell 6.3% to 20.97.
The cash curve is steeply in contango, 9.46 at one day against 18.53 at three months, with the front VIX future at 18.10. Cross-asset vol eased in step: MOVE fell 7.5% to 72.09 and OVX 4.8% to 52.34, while SKEW held elevated at 136.54. SPX options imply 0.43% for today's expiry and 0.62% into Friday.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,859 (+0.69%) | ETHEREUM ~1,896 (+0.97%) | IBIT 35.89 (-0.14%) | ETHA 14.16 (-0.14%) | AS OF ~07:31 CET

Crypto firmed modestly overnight with the majors up under a point and DVOL easing to 35.65. The listed proxies told a sharper story: IREN surged 9.9% and CleanSpark 5.7%, tracking the neocloud earnings that lifted chipmakers, while Strategy fell 1.3% and the spot ETFs were flat. Spot bitcoin funds took in only USD 4.9 million.
The SEC votes Friday on Regulation Crypto, which would create an investment-contract safe harbour for tokens whose networks run autonomously. The Senate left for recess without advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, pushing market-structure legislation to September.

Commodities

Grains: The BCOM Grains Index jumped 3% on Wednesday, led by a 4.6% rally in corn after the USDA lowered its 2026 yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183 bpa a month ago, reflecting the impact of hot weather on America’s largest crop. Adding to the broader strength across grains, wheat futures rose 3% after Ukraine attacked a key Russian grain port, adding to concerns about export flows from the Black Sea region.
Oil futures traded lower following six consecutive sessions of gains after Brent encountered resistance around USD 90, with traders waiting for the next Middle East-related headline. Hopes for progress in talks between the US and Iran remain limited as both sides continue to harden their positions, with President Trump claiming the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz. In their latest monthly reports, both the IEA and EIA raised their estimates for 2026 demand destruction, helping explain why crude prices remain relatively muted despite six months of disrupted supply. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase since 2023, driven by a jump in imports and continued releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Precious metals: Spot gold closed above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months on Wednesday after in-line US CPI data eased concerns about further rate hikes. During Asian trading today, gold briefly reached USD 4,450 before retreating as traders booked profits ahead of the 200-day moving average, which is likely to provide resistance around USD 4,500. Gold ETFs added holdings for a fifth consecutive session, pointing to renewed investor appetite alongside a pickup in central bank purchases, notably from China.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries yields churned sideways to slightly slower as the US July CPI data came in exactly in line with the expectations for a small drop in the core YoY number to 2.5%. An auction of 10-year treasury notes saw solid demand, if slightly less demand than the previous two auctions. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield ended Wednesday less than two basis points lower, but fell another two basis points overnight into Thursday, trading 4.18%, only three basis points above the multi-week lows of 4.15%. The benchmark 10-year yield ended Wednesday almost unchanged near 4.69% after dipping intraday below 4.65%, and was trading 4.68% early Thursday.
Japan’s government bonds yield curve steepened slightly. Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that the government supports an earlier BoJ rate hike, which interestingly did little to boost short-dated Japanese yields, as the market still sees odds of a BoJ hike at the mid-September BoJ meeting at around 75%. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield was almost unchanged Thursday, still near the high of the cycle at 1.645%, while the 10-year JGB yield rose two basis points to almost 2.88%, nearing the multi-decade highs from July at 2.90%.

Currencies

The US dollar was slightly firmer after the US July CPI release was in-line with expectations Wednesday. EURUSD dipped toward 1.1520 after a 1.1563 high and AUDUSD fell back to just below 0.7050 by early Thursday after a probe just above 0.7090 in the wake of the US CPI release Wednesday.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s statement in favour of earlier BoJ hikes only offered the JPY modest support from near intraday lows Thursday, with USDJPY still trading near 159.35 after a 159.49 high earlier in the session.
The lowest yielding major currency, the Swiss franc, weakened on Wednesday, with EURCHF hitting new highs for this year above 0.9380 early Thursday before finding resistance. Likewise, the Swedish krone fell sharply on Wednesday, perhaps getting punished for Sweden’s low policy rate. EURSEK rose from near 11.00 earlier in the day to close neaer 11.05, only about a half percent below the 11-month high near 11.115.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

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AI infrastructure earnings: demand is booming, but the hard part starts here

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 13:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro all point to exceptionally strong artificial intelligence infrastructure demand.
The bottleneck is shifting from finding customers to delivering powered capacity quickly and profitably.
Better margins help, but huge capital spending means cash and financing still matter.

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has spent two years asking whether demand can justify the enormous bill for chips and data centres. This earnings week gives a fairly clear answer: customers are still showing up.

CoreWeave and Nebius rent specialised AI computing power. Super Micro Computer, commonly called Supermicro, builds the servers that hold the chips. Their latest results point in the same direction: orders are strong, capacity is scarce and growth remains rapid.

Demand has stopped being the main debate

CoreWeave's quarterly revenue more than doubled, while its backlog of contracted future revenue reached roughly 104 billion USD. It also signed more than 25 billion USD of additional customer commitments after quarter-end and lifted its full-year outlook.

Nebius added another strong data point on 12 August 2026. Revenue rose more than fivefold from a year earlier to 582 million USD, ahead of analysts’ expectations, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Annualised run-rate revenue, which turns the latest revenue pace into a yearly figure, reached 3 billion USD at the end of June, up from 1.9 billion USD three months earlier.

Supermicro tells the same story from the hardware side. Quarterly sales nearly doubled, while more than 60 billion USD of new orders pushed backlog to a record. Its near-term sales outlook also came in well above expectations.

The message is becoming difficult to miss: the AI infrastructure machine is still hungry.

The bottleneck moves beyond chips

Strong orders do not mean capacity appears instantly.

Supermicro said some revenue was delayed because customers were waiting for power, cooling and networking infrastructure. A powerful server has limited value if the building around it is not ready. Nebius is accelerating its buildout, raising expected year-end power capacity to 5 gigawatts from more than 4 gigawatts previously. CoreWeave is also increasing planned 2026 capital spending as it adds chips and data centres.

The bottleneck is broadening. Advanced chips still matter, but so do electricity connections, cooling systems, construction schedules and financing. AI increasingly resembles an industrial infrastructure boom. That supports demand across semiconductors, memory, networking, electrical equipment, cooling and power generation. It also means delays in one part of the chain can slow revenue elsewhere.

The caveat is capital intensity. Nebius spent about 5.7 billion USD on property, equipment and intangible assets during the quarter. CoreWeave now expects tens of billions of dollars of annual capital spending. The next test is whether these companies can turn customer commitments into attractive returns after paying for the infrastructure required to serve them.

Risks: strong demand can create its own problems

Execution comes first. Data centres need land, power, chips, cooling and networking to arrive at roughly the same time. Delays can push revenue into later quarters while costs continue.

Financing matters too. Rapid expansion requires enormous upfront spending. Higher borrowing costs or poorly structured funding can weaken shareholder returns. Customer concentration and rapid hardware obsolescence add further risk, while Supermicro also carries company-specific export-control and compliance concerns.

Investor playbook

Watch how quickly backlog becomes actual revenue, rather than treating every announced contract as completed business.
Compare capacity growth with utilisation and margins.
Follow capital spending, debt and cash alongside revenue growth.
Diversify across the AI supply chain rather than assuming strong demand produces identical returns everywhere.

The AI race enters the physical world

The common thread running through CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro is no longer simply explosive AI demand. It is the difficult job of turning that demand into working infrastructure and then into durable economics.

CoreWeave shows customers are still signing enormous commitments. Supermicro shows that power and cooling can matter as much as chips. Nebius now adds evidence that rapid scaling can improve operating profitability, even while the cash bill remains formidable.

That is the next phase of the AI story. The industry does not appear short of customers. It needs electricity, equipment, capital and disciplined execution. The winners may still own the fastest technology, but increasingly they will also be the companies that build the best business around it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVidia Corp. Quarterly earnings

Sugar breaks higher as tightening supply catches shorts off guard

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:30:00 Z

Sugar futures in New York have pushed above 17 cents/lb, reaching an important area of resistance that has capped the upside on two previous occasions during the past year. Nine successive sessions of gains - the longest winning streak since January 2021, according to Bloomberg - have lifted prices by around 18%, driven by mounting concerns about tightening global supplies.

The supply outlook is becoming increasingly supportive. European sugar production is expected to fall to a decade low, while El Niño-related weather risks threaten cane output in India and Thailand, two of the world's largest producers alongside Brazil. Any meaningful deterioration in Asian crops would leave the market increasingly dependent on Brazilian supply.

One caveat is the shifting economics between sugar and ethanol in Brazil. The recent rally has pushed sugar to a sizeable premium over ethanol, strengthening the incentive for Brazilian mills to maximise sugar production rather than divert cane toward biofuel. That flexibility could eventually provide a supply response and limit the upside if current price strength persists.

Positioning has added fuel to the rally. Just before prices accelerated last week, speculators had already cut their net short position in New York sugar futures by around 30% to 77,800 contracts. With the market subsequently breaking above its long-term downtrend and the 200-day moving average, further short covering appears to have contributed to the latest surge.

Attention now turns to the 17-cent area which as mentioned has offered resistance and attracted profit taking on two previous attempts in the last year. A sustained break above this resistance zone may strengthen the technical picture further, while failure to hold the breakout could leave the market vulnerable to profit taking as the short covering squeeze fades, particularly if Brazil responds to the improved sugar-production economics.

Sugar breaking higher, partly driven by short covering from hedge funds - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
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A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA

Crude calms, CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Yesterday the market paid for an oil shock and ignored the equity one. Overnight that flipped, and almost all of the new premium landed inside a single trading session.

MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.28 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (135.59) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.40

The volatility bid left the commodity complex and moved into a single equity session. Gold volatility fell 6.85% to 25.99 and silver volatility 5.26% to 48.27, both giving back most of Monday's spike, while one-day S&P 500 volatility rose 34.05% to 12.52.
Friday's window repriced by more than the calendar explains. S&P 500 options now price 70 points, about 0.91%, into the 14 August expiry, against the 64 points that time decay alone would have left from yesterday's reading of 78.
The tape that traded was not positioned for the print. Confirmed-opening premium on Tuesday ran to long-dated deep in-the-money structures and sold semiconductor volatility, with almost nothing sized against the inflation release.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 12 August 2026, approx. 07:15 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Crude held a fifth consecutive advance as Iran repeated that the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, leaving the July consumer price report as the session's swing variable. Full macro rundown in Saxo's Market Quick Take – Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms, 12 August 2026.

Market snapshot

US (Tuesday 11 August close): S&P 500 7,728.20 (-0.32%), Nasdaq 100 29,525.48 (-0.33%), Dow 53,797.39 (-0.34%), IWM 300.99 (+0.34%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.21%, so the index decline came from a handful of large names. Alphabet fell 3.84% and Amazon 2.09%, while Apollo Global gained 6.3% and Sea Limited 14.6%.
Europe: Stoxx 600 660.52 (+0.01%), Euro Stoxx 50 6,551.23 (+0.24%) at a record close, DAX 26,391.42 (+0.26%), FTSE 100 down 0.2%. Energy shares carried the region.
Asia (Wednesday session, in progress): Kospi 6,561.55 (+3.40%) as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each added roughly 5%, Nikkei up 0.8% on its return from holiday, Hang Seng 25,347.96 (-1.19%) ahead of Tencent's results.
Commodities and rates: Brent traded near USD 89.48 and WTI near USD 83.84, a fifth straight gain. Gold futures held near USD 4,460 and copper near USD 6.66 per pound. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.684% from 4.705%, the 2-year to 4.218%. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo pricing for full details.
Market regime (rules based read): Low Vol Bull, VIX 15.28, 20-day realised volatility 13.7% (stable), S&P 500 3.03% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 12 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 11 August, yesterday's positioning and not today's price action.

Single-name flow was long-dated and structural. Roughly 71% of the USD 1.69bn in confirmed-opening premium went to calls, but the largest lines were deep in-the-money strikes running from October 2026 to February 2027, which behave like the shares with a financing cost attached rather than a view on the next few days. The cleanest paid-up buying sat a full year out. Mega-cap premium leaned 58% to puts, though nearly all of it printed mid-market in deep in-the-money strikes inside multi-leg packages, so the sign is not readable.
Sector and ETF flow told a clearer story in volatility than in direction. Semiconductor premium was close to balanced overall, yet roughly USD 49m of the size was explicitly sold against about USD 18m bought, concentrated in September 2026 and longer expiries. Metals ran 66% to calls across gold, silver and the miners, while energy premium looked like long-dated structure rather than protection despite a 75% put share. Almost nothing in the confirmed-opening tape was sized against the inflation release itself.

Volatility surface – 12 August 2026, approx. 07:15 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 15.28 (-1.16%)
VIX1D 12.52 (+34.05%) · VIX9D 12.52 (-1.96%)
VIX3M 18.91 (-0.37%) · VIX6M 21.10 (-0.19%) · VIX1Y 22.75 (-0.04%), an upward sloping cash curve outside the event window

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 18.40 (+9.60%), a 3.12-point premium to spot and just below three-month cash volatility
Second-month VIX futures 19.80 (+7.44%), front-to-second ratio at 0.930, curve in contango

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 135.59 (-1.12%), well above the 100 to 120 neutral zone
COR3M 11.57 (+3.86%), implied correlation still near the low end of its range
DSPX 35.32 (-3.58%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.702, index put/call 0.879

Cross-asset volatility

OVX 54.99 (-1.91%), oil volatility easing despite a fifth straight advance in crude
GVZ 25.99 (-6.85%) · VXSLV 48.27 (-5.26%) · MOVE 77.92 (+3.26%)
VXN 22.38 (-2.86%) · RVX 19.07 (-0.73%) · VXD 14.08 (+0.36%) · VVIX 90.90 (-1.74%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 12 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

The print is now being paid for, and yesterday it was not. S&P 500 options price 45 points, about 0.58%, for today's expiry and 70 points, about 0.91%, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Tuesday's edition quoted 78 points for that same Friday expiry with three sessions left, and flat volatility alone would have decayed that to roughly 64. In our view the extra 6 points may be the clearest sign that the event premium arrived late. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
The entire repricing sits inside one session. One-day volatility rose 34.05% while nine-day volatility fell 1.96% and three-month volatility barely moved, and the at-the-money contract expiring today carries roughly 21% implied volatility against about 14% for Friday. In our assessment the market may be treating the inflation number as a shock that resolves on the day rather than one that changes the regime.
The volatility bid rotated out of commodities. Gold, silver and oil volatility all fell after Monday's spike, while bond volatility rose 3.26% to 77.92. In our view the complex that spent last week reacting to the Hormuz standoff appears to have handed the sensitivity back to rates and equities, at least for this session.
The curve is priced for calm after today. Front-month VIX futures at 18.40 sit 3.12 points above spot and just below three-month cash volatility at 18.91, which is the shape a market shows when it expects the near term to normalise upward rather than to break. In our assessment that structure may leave little room for disappointment if the number lands outside the consensus of 0.1% on the month for headline prices. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Today’s catalysts

13:00 CET US MBA mortgage applications.
14:30 CET US July consumer price index, consensus 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year for headline, 0.2% and 2.5% for core.
18:00 CET USDA world agricultural supply and demand estimates.
19:00 CET US Treasury auctions 10-year notes.
Monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC land during the day. Earnings: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent and Nebius Group.

Conclusion

In our assessment, yesterday's brief described a market that had priced a commodity shock without pricing an equity one. Overnight it started paying for the equity one, and it paid almost entirely inside today's session. In our view the gap between a 21% one-day contract and a 14% two-day contract may be the reading worth watching after the release, because it shows how much of the move the market expects to be over by tonight, though a single print could reprice the whole front end and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

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Oil gyrates on Hormuz headlines as depleted inventories and tight distillates raise the stakes

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Oil remains trapped between geopolitical risk and expectations that an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will release shut-in Gulf production, keeping price volatility elevated.
The IEA and EIA both highlight rapidly depleted inventories, but demand destruction, weak Chinese crude imports and expectations of eventual supply normalisation help explain why crude is not trading materially higher.
Refined products, particularly diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, remain significantly tighter than crude as Middle Eastern and Russian refinery disruptions drive crack spreads and refining margins to exceptional levels.
Deep backwardation has delivered a major windfall to long-only investors, with total returns in crude and distillates substantially exceeding the rise in prompt futures prices.

A market driven by headlines

Oil continues to gyrate sharply as the war of words between Washington and Tehran leaves no clear path towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is trading around USD 90 per barrel, but recent price action has been characterised by rapid swings as traders react to every diplomatic headline. Iran continues to insist that its conditions must be met before the Strait reopens, while Washington has introduced demands of its own, leaving negotiations effectively stuck.

The volatility partly reflects the extraordinary uncertainty surrounding the timing and consequences of any reopening. Initially, restored shipping would undoubtedly be viewed as bearish. Crude exports could increase, some shut-in Gulf production could restart, logistical bottlenecks would ease and a sizeable geopolitical risk premium would disappear.

However, that is only one side of the story. Nearly six months of disruption have left the global oil system with much thinner buffers than when the conflict began.

The IEA estimates that observed global oil inventories have fallen by around 410 million barrels since the start of the war, equivalent to an average draw of 2.7 million barrels per day. Stocks fell another 69 million barrels in July, while the agency now expects the global oil balance to remain in deficit by around 1.8 million barrels per day during the third quarter.

Emergency stock releases have helped bridge the gap, but these barrels represent supply borrowed from the future rather than newly created supply. Strategic inventories will eventually need rebuilding, meaning an eventual return of Gulf barrels will not necessarily translate into an immediate or sustained surplus.

Why is crude not higher?

Given the scale and duration of the disruption, the more interesting question may be why Brent continues to trade below USD 100. Demand destruction provides much of the answer.

The IEA has lowered its 2026 world oil demand forecast again and now expects consumption to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day this year. Demand contracted by an estimated 4.9 million barrels per day year-on-year during the second quarter and is expected to remain down 2.8 million barrels per day in the third. High fuel prices, disrupted supply chains and reduced product availability are all weighing on consumption.

China has played an especially important balancing role. EIA data show Chinese crude imports averaged just 8.1 million barrels per day during the second quarter, down 32% from the first, while imports remained sharply below year-earlier levels in July. Reduced demand from the world's largest crude importer has absorbed a meaningful part of the Gulf supply shock and helped prevent prices from rising further.

The market is also forward-looking. Traders continue to price the probability that Hormuz eventually reopens and Gulf production recovers. The EIA assumes flows remain severely constrained through August before gradually improving from September, although it expects trade and production patterns to take until early 2027 to approach their pre-conflict configuration. Its latest forecast sees Brent averaging around USD 85 in the third quarter, falling towards USD 78 in the fourth quarter and USD 69 in 2027 as production recovers and inventories eventually rebuild.

This expected future normalisation acts as a ceiling on prompt prices even while today's physical balance remains exceptionally tight.

Since March, Brent crude has gyrated within a 50-dollar wide range averaging around USD 85 - Source: Saxo

The real squeeze is in refined products

The strongest signal of tightness is arguably no longer crude itself but refined products, particularly middle distillates. Diesel, jet fuel and heating oil markets remain squeezed by disruptions in two critical refining regions. Middle Eastern crude and product exports remain constrained, while Ukrainian attacks continue to restrict Russian refinery operations.

The Gulf had developed into one of the world's most important export-oriented refining hubs before the war, exporting around 3.3 million barrels per day of refined products in 2025. The region is particularly important for diesel and jet fuel. Many of its sophisticated refineries are designed around medium and sour crude grades which, combined with complex upgrading capacity, are well suited to producing middle distillates. Medium-gravity crude naturally produces a higher proportion of diesel and kerosene than very light crude, making the loss of these barrels particularly difficult to replace.

The latest IEA report underlines the scale of the problem. Global refinery crude throughputs reached 80.9 million barrels per day in July but remained almost 5 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia were down 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year, equivalent to around 20% of global seaborne diesel trade, while jet fuel exports from the same regions fell by roughly 670,000 barrels per day, or 34% of global trade.

The accompanying charts tell the story clearly: distillate cracks have surged well above gasoline margins across the US, Europe and Asia, while the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack has climbed to exceptionally elevated levels.

For refiners that can secure crude and maintain high utilisation, the economics are therefore extraordinary. Marathon Petroleum reported second-quarter refining and marketing EBITDA of USD 6.7 billion versus USD 1.9 billion a year earlier, with its refining margin more than doubling to USD 36.33 per barrel. Major refiners including Sinopec, Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum and Valero are obvious beneficiaries, with Marathon and Valero shares having roughly doubled year-to-date as investors price the improvement in refining economics.

Exceptional high margins creating a windfall for refiners - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Backwardation adds tailwind to long-only investors

Another often overlooked feature of this year's energy rally has been the return generated through the futures curve, where persistent backwardation has significantly boosted performance for long positions. In a backwardated market, near-term contracts trade at a premium to later-dated ones, meaning that as positions are rolled forward investors are effectively selling higher-priced expiring contracts and buying cheaper deferred ones. This creates a positive roll yield that adds to spot price gains, amplifying total returns even in periods when outright price moves are relatively modest.

The accompanying Bloomberg/Saxo data show Brent gaining 46.6% on the first futures contract while delivering a total return of 75.7%. WTI shows an almost identical divergence, with a 45.5% prompt-month gain translating into a 75.4% total return. The difference is even more dramatic in distillates, with gasoil producing a 154.8% total return against a 98.4% gain in the first future, while ULSD has returned 140.4% versus a 100% prompt-contract advance.

Deep backwardation has therefore provided long-only investors with substantial positive roll yield on top of the directional price gain. Put differently, the shortage is being expressed not only through higher prices but also through the increasingly expensive premium attached to immediately available barrels. Note in recent weeks the backwardation has eased, thereby reducing the mentioned roll yield.

Backwardation has created significant returns for long-only investors across crude and fuel products - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Where next?

An eventual reopening of Hormuz would almost certainly trigger another sharp downward adjustment as traders price returning Gulf exports. But the subsequent move may prove more complicated.

Inventories have been heavily depleted, strategic reserves have been drawn down, Gulf production remains well below normal and the refining system has lost capacity precisely where the market needs it most. The IEA itself expects inventories to remain under pressure before the balance moves back towards surplus later this year.

That leaves crude caught between two powerful forces: expectations of future supply normalisation on one side and an increasingly depleted physical buffer on the other. Until the Strait actually reopens and production visibly recovers, volatility looks set to remain a defining feature - while distillates and the shape of the futures curve may continue to provide the clearest evidence of just how tight the underlying energy market has become.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Related articles/content
11 August 2026: Gold and silver rebound as buyers return but the real test lies ahead 10 August 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 4 August 2026 17 July 2026: Commodities weekly war weather and backwardation drive returns 16 July 2026: Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide 15 July 2026: Is gold beginning to look beyond inflation 14 July 2026: Gulf tensions and short covering drive energy higher amid renewed supply shock fears 13 July 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 7 July 2026 10 July 2026: Commodities stabilise supported by fuel and weather risks 8 July 2026: Oil jumps as fragile Iran ceasefire unravels 7 July 2026: COT update Elevated dollar and rate bets build as commodity selling eases 6 July 2026: From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor 3 July 2026: Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets 2 July 2026: Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return 1 July 2026: Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes 30 June 2026: Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip 29 June 2026: COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves 26 June 2026: Commodities weekly June reset as peace hopes hawkish Fed and fund liquidation hit crowded longs 25 June 2026: Gold and silver slide as dollar strength fuels another round of liquidation 24 June 2026: Oil prices reset as stranded Gulf barrels head for market 23 June 2026: Metals struggle as markets price peak hawkishness not peak demand 18 June 2026: Weather risk returns as El Nino threatens crops grids and mines 17 June 2026: Precious metals steady as oil-driven inflation fears fade 16 June 2026: Oil retreats as peace hopes rise but depleted inventories may limit the downside 15 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 9 June 12 June 2026: Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace 9 June 2026: Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite 8 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026 4 June 2026: Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight 1 June 2026: Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus 1 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026 29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine 22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm 21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply 19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support 18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026 13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand 12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal 11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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6 July 2026: From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor
3 July 2026: Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets
2 July 2026: Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return
1 July 2026: Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes
30 June 2026: Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip
29 June 2026: COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves
26 June 2026: Commodities weekly June reset as peace hopes hawkish Fed and fund liquidation hit crowded longs
25 June 2026: Gold and silver slide as dollar strength fuels another round of liquidation
24 June 2026: Oil prices reset as stranded Gulf barrels head for market
23 June 2026: Metals struggle as markets price peak hawkishness not peak demand
18 June 2026: Weather risk returns as El Nino threatens crops grids and mines
17 June 2026: Precious metals steady as oil-driven inflation fears fade
16 June 2026: Oil retreats as peace hopes rise but depleted inventories may limit the downside
15 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 9 June
12 June 2026: Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace
9 June 2026: Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite
8 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026
4 June 2026: Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight
1 June 2026: Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus
1 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026
29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine
22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm
21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply
19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support
18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026
13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand
12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal
11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA

Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key.

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:08:00 Z

US treasury yields in focus after longest yields tested high end of range.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Defined risk is not small risk: what the contract multiplier decides

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:55:00 Z

A 100-point-wide spread on a EUR 1,420 stock is textbook defined risk. It is also EUR 4,000 on one contract. The number that decides which of those you are actually holding is the one nobody looks at.

The standard advice ahead of a company report is consistent and reasonable. Do not buy naked premium into a binary event. Use a spread. Cap the downside. Know the worst case before you enter.

Now apply it. Take a stock trading near EUR 1,420, roughly where ASML closed on 3 August 2026 (Source: Saxo). Buy a 100-point-wide call spread for a net debit of about EUR 40. The risk is defined, exactly as instructed. It is also EUR 4,000 on a single contract. The rule was followed to the letter and the position is still too large for most books to carry through an event.

That gap is worth naming, because it sits in a blind spot. “Defined” describes the shape of the outcome. It carries no information about magnitude. The variable that sets magnitude is the contract multiplier, and almost nobody treats it as a variable at all.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

The multiplier is a choice, not a constant

Maximum loss on a vertical spread is the width, less the credit, multiplied by the contract size. Traders spend their attention almost entirely on the first two terms. Strike selection, credit received, break-even placement. The third term gets treated as scenery.

It is not scenery. The 100-share contract is a round-lot convention inherited from a period when shares were cheap, and exchanges have been quietly adjusting it ever since. Euronext now lists smaller contracts on twenty-one European names across Amsterdam, Paris, Brussels and Milan.

The clearest evidence that this is a deliberate dial rather than a standard is Lotus Bakeries. The shares closed at EUR 11,160 on 3 August 2026, which would put a 100-share contract at roughly EUR 1.1 million of notional. Euronext lists the mini at one share (Source: Saxo, 4 August 2026). Everywhere else on the list the size is ten.

Nor is the list confined to expensive shares. Capgemini closed at EUR 107.20 and SAP at EUR 164.64, where a full-size contract presents no obstacle at all. In our view that suggests these contracts are better understood as a granularity product than as an affordability fix.

What changes, and what does not

A smaller contract is not a different instrument. Same strikes, same expiry dates, same implied volatility, same delta per share.

That is verifiable rather than assumed. Comparing both ASML roots on the same 21 August 2026 expiry on 4 August 2026, implied volatility matched to two decimals across the strike range and deltas matched to three (Source: Saxo). The pricing surface is identical. Only the multiplier moves.

Which means the earlier example simply rescales. The same 100-point-wide spread, bought at the same EUR 40 debit, carries EUR 400 of maximum risk on a 10-share contract against EUR 4,000 on the standard, with maximum gain of about EUR 600 against EUR 6,000. Identical break-even, identical shape, identical greeks per share.

Vertical call spread – example structure (illustrative only – not a trade recommendation)

Buy 1 call, sell 1 call 100 points higher, for a net debit of about EUR 40, being roughly EUR 74 paid for the lower strike less roughly EUR 34 taken in on the higher strike
Maximum risk on a 10-share contract: about EUR 400, against a maximum gain of about EUR 600
Maximum risk on a 100-share contract: about EUR 4,000, against a maximum gain of about EUR 6,000
Break-even: identical in both cases, at the lower strike plus the net debit

All figures are hypothetical and for education only. These are American-style options, so a short leg moving into the money may be assigned before expiry, delivering 10 shares rather than 100. The smaller contract reduces the absolute loss, not the probability of incurring it. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.

The same position at two contract sizes. Shape, break-even and greeks per share are identical; only the scale changes. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo

Why company reports sharpen the problem

Implied volatility rises into a scheduled report and falls afterwards. The practical consequence is that premium per contract is at its most expensive precisely when a trader wants to be involved. The constraint is not constant. It tightens exactly as the opportunity appears.

That collides with position sizing. A risk rule expressed as a percentage of capital sets a maximum bet. The contract sets a minimum one. Where the minimum exceeds the maximum, something has to give, and in practice it is usually the rule rather than the trade.

Strategy insight – repetition is the point. The risk on any single event position is the full defined loss, and a smaller multiplier changes the absolute numbers rather than that exposure. What it may change is how often the position can be taken at all. Report-day outcomes are fat-tailed and largely company-specific, so any edge a process might hold can only show up across repetitions. A structure a trader can afford twice a year behaves like a lottery ticket regardless of how well it was chosen. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.

Where the smaller contract is listed

Company	Mini code	Market	Contract size	Weekly minis
Adidas	ADQM	Amsterdam	10	no
Airbus	EA1M	Paris	10	no
Allianz	AZQM	Amsterdam	10	no
argenx	ARGM	Brussels	10	no
ASM International	ASMM	Amsterdam	10	yes
ASML	ASLM	Amsterdam	10	yes
BE Semiconductor	BESM	Amsterdam	10	yes
Capgemini	CP1M	Paris	10	no
EssilorLuxottica	EF1M	Paris	10	yes
Ferrari	RACM	Milan	10	no
Hermès	HE1	Paris	10	yes
Kering	KR1M	Paris	10	no
L’Oréal	OR1M	Paris	10	yes
Lotus Bakeries	LOTM	Brussels	1	no
LVMH	MC1M	Paris	10	yes
Rheinmetall	RHQM	Amsterdam	10	no
SAP	APQM	Amsterdam	10	no
Safran	SM1M	Paris	10	no
Schneider Electric	SU1M	Paris	10	no
Thales	HO1M	Paris	10	no
UCB	UCBM	Brussels	10	no

Contract specifications as listed on Saxo, 4 August 2026. Adyen is listed separately as a standard stock option in Amsterdam but already carries a 10-share contract, so no mini exists alongside it. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

Three things worth checking first

Costs weigh proportionally heavier. A per-contract charge sits against a tenth of the notional, so the same fee represents roughly ten times the drag. On short-dated structures this can matter more than the spread. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.

Do not assume the smaller book is the thinner one. It has to be checked at the strikes actually being considered, though the assumption often fails in the unexpected direction. Comparing both ASML roots on 4 August 2026, the mini quoted tighter than the standard contract on fourteen of the twenty lines examined, equal on five and wider on one (Source: Saxo).

Weekly availability is a separate question from size. Only six of the twenty-one names list weekly minis, and that, not the multiplier, decides whether a scheduled event can be isolated in a short-dated contract rather than carried through a monthly. Multi-leg order support also varies by venue: the Milan-listed Ferrari mini does not currently support it at Saxo, so spreads are not available on that root.

Final thoughts

Defining risk is a good habit and none of this argues against it. But a defined loss and a survivable loss are separate tests, and passing the first says nothing about the second.

The multiplier is the term that connects them, and unlike volatility or direction it is not something a trader has to forecast. It is simply something to notice, because on the same underlying it may be available in more than one size.

In our view the more complete question before an event position is not only whether the risk is defined. It is whether it is defined at a size that could be repeated. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor, and a smaller contract changes the scale of a loss rather than the chance of one.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
At the time of writing the author holds no position in any of the instruments referenced in this article.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke Volatility and event strategies Defined risk strategies Sell premium credit strategies Trading Strategies Option Strategies Bearish strategies Bullish strategies Range‑bound strategies ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Market Quick Take - Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms - 12 August 2026

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:36:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A closed Strait of Hormuz kept crude bid while markets waited on the July inflation print
Equities: US stocks slipped before CPI, Europe held near records, Asia was mixed as a Korean chip rebound offset Hong Kong weakness.
Volatility: Event-day volatility repriced sharply into the inflation print while the broader surface eased
Digital Assets: Crypto held steady before the data while stablecoin and mining equities outperformed
Commodities: Crude extended a fifth straight advance and gold held near a two-month high
Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied Tuesday and 3-year auction strong ahead of key US CPI release today.
Currencies: JPY and CHF weak, USD sideways ahead of key US July CPI release today

Macro

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until its demands are met, keeping a bid under crude for a fifth session. Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement" and even after both sides appeared to toughen their positions in the long-deadlocked negotiations
The US July NFIB Small Business Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased. Meanwhile,
US July CPI lands today and may be the session's swing variable. Consensus looks for a 0.1% moM rise and 3.4% YoY rise in the headline, and 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY for the core CPI, both 0.1% lower than June.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1230 – US July CPI
1600 – USDA monthly WASDE report on US and world crops
1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes

During the day: Monthly Oil Market Reports from IEA and OPEC

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones also lost 0.3%, as fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz agreement lifted oil and investors waited for today’s US inflation report. Large-cap technology weakened, with Alphabet down 3.8% and Amazon 2.1% lower, while Apollo Global gained 6.3% after joining Nvidia’s new AI financing initiative. Sea Limited jumped 14.6% after quarterly revenue beat expectations, helped by Shopee and financial-services growth. After the close, strong AI-infrastructure results from CoreWeave and Super Micro kept spending demand in focus ahead of CPI.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished flat on Tuesday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to a record close and the DAX gained 0.3%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%. Higher oil prices supported energy shares, while a strong earnings season helped offset concerns that prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation elevated. ISS gained 4.4% on stronger-than-expected results, while Spirax Group fell 5.6% after maintaining its outlook and Legal & General lost 3.1% following a broker downgrade. US inflation data remained the next major catalyst.
Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Wednesday, with South Korea leading sharply higher: the Kospi surged around 4%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% after reopening from a holiday and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3%. Korean memory stocks drove the regional strength as AI-demand optimism and expectations for stronger shareholder returns revived buying, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up around 5%. Mainland Chinese shares were steadier, while Hong Kong remained under pressure ahead of Tencent’s results. Investors also watched the yen near 159 per dollar and today’s US inflation report for the next signal on rates and risk appetite.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Ahead of today's July CPI print the repricing was concentrated at the very front: VIX1D climbed 34% to 12.52, off a 7.52 open, while spot VIX eased to 15.28 and VVIX slipped to 90.90. VXN fell 2.9% to 22.38, so demand for index convexity stayed subdued outside the event window.
The cash curve held its contango, 12.52 at nine days against 18.91 at three months, with the front VIX future at 18.40 below the second at 19.80. SKEW eased to 135.59 while MOVE rose 3.3% to 77.9. SPX options imply 0.58% for today's expiry and 0.91% into Friday.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,766 (+0.36%) | ETHEREUM ~1,889 (+0.42%) | IBIT 35.94 (-0.80%) | ETHA 14.18 (+0.28%) | AS OF ~07:16 CET

Crypto held steady into the CPI print, with spot little changed and DVOL easing to 35.89. US-listed proxies diverged: Circle rose 6.1% and the miners outperformed, led by Cipher and Riot, while IBIT slipped, MicroStrategy fell and Coinbase finished flat.
On the structural side, the SEC has scheduled an open meeting for Friday to vote on proposing Regulation Crypto, a tailored offering framework for certain crypto investment contracts, which would be the agency's first formal crypto rulemaking under its current chair.

Commodities

Oil: Oil trades higher for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent near USD 90 and WTI around USD 84, as the Hormuz standoff and lower Russian refinery runs following Ukrainian attacks remain the dominant price drivers. In the latest round of verbal exchanges, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut until its demands are met, while Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement", even as both sides appear to have toughened their positions. On tap today are the monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC, with traders looking for updated assessments of supply disruptions and demand.
Precious metals: Spot gold trades near USD 4,400, having found support during Tuesday's brief pullback to USD 4,356. Traders are now focusing on today's US CPI print to gauge whether the recent technical breakout above USD 4,200 has enough momentum to carry prices towards the next major hurdle, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500. ETF inflows extended to a fifth consecutive session, lifting total holdings to a six-week high and providing further evidence of renewed investor demand.
Industrial metals: COMEX copper trades steady around USD 6.65 per pound after last week run up to a record USD 6.8665, supported by a renewed squeeze in LME warehouse availability, a drop in production in Chile and Peru highlighting current production challenges, and continued US stockpiling ahead of a potential tariff decision on refined copper imports. Separately, Chile's government has allowed state-owned Codelco to retain 100% of its 2025 profit, approximately USD 2.42 billion, to fund strategic investments.
Grains: Today the USDA will release one of its most anticipated reports of the year, where US corn and soybean production will be the main focus. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures rebounded, underpinned by disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region amid attacks by Ukraine and Russia on each other's shipping routes
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries rallied Tuesday, with the longest 30-year yields pulling back from the brink after testing 19-year highs. A strong auction of 3-year treasuries also improved sentiment ahead of today’s July US CPI release, and a 10-year treasury note auction awaits later in the day. After testing the recent high of the cycle since 2024 near 4.745% Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rolled over to close at 4.68%.
Back from a one-day holiday on Tuesday, Japan’s government bond yields rose all along the curve Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield jumping more than two basis points to 1.645% by late in the trading day Wednesday, a new high since the mid-1990’s. The market is now pricing firmer odds (nearly 80%) of the next BoJ rate hike coming at the September 18 meeting.

Currencies

Price action across major currencies was moribund Tuesday and early Wednesday as the market awaits the week’s key data point in the form of the July US CPI print later in the day today, with the JPY remaining on the weak side of the recent ranges even as odds firm for a September 18 BoJ rate hike. Sterling remains firm versus the US dollar and the euro.
The Swiss franc remains on the weak side of the weakest levels this year versus the euro as EURCHF continues to eye the cycle highs this week near 0.9370. The next area of note to the upside is perhaps the 0.9400 area.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

AI needs more than chips: Why Lumentum and the optics trade are lighting up

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 02:30:00 Z

Key points:

Optics is becoming an increasingly important part of AI infrastructure. As AI clusters grow, more data needs to move quickly and efficiently between GPUs, servers, racks and data centres.
Lumentum is emerging as an important company to watch within the theme. AI-related demand, improving operating margins and Nvidia’s $2 billion strategic investment have increased attention on the company.
The theme extends beyond one stock. Coherent, Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, Ciena and others sit across the optical ecosystem, while the recently launched Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) provides a more diversified way to track the sector.

The AI infrastructure investment cycle remains powerful, but it is also broadening.

GPUs and memory still attract much of the attention, but increasingly large AI data centres also require faster networking, more power, cooling and greater connectivity.

That is putting another part of the AI infrastructure buildout into focus: photonics and optical networking.

AI systems can involve thousands of accelerators working together, creating huge amounts of traffic between chips, racks and data centres. Optical connections transmit data using light and can provide the high bandwidth and energy efficiency increasingly required as AI networks scale. Nvidia itself describes optical interconnects as important to improving the energy efficiency and resilience of large-scale AI networks.

We believe that as AI spending expands from individual chips towards entire AI factories, networking and connectivity could take a larger role in infrastructure spending. That does not necessarily mean every optics company benefits equally, but it makes the sector increasingly relevant when assessing the broader AI value chain.

Companies including Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics provide lasers, optical components and transceivers used to connect data-centre infrastructure.

Why optics is gaining investor attention

1. AI clusters are becoming larger and more connected

The more accelerators an AI system uses, the more data needs to move between them. That is helping drive adoption of faster optical technologies, including the transition towards 1.6T optical modules.

Lumentum said in its latest results that its cloud-module business was advancing 1.6T adoption, alongside growing demand for optical circuit switches and high-power lasers for co-packaged optics.

Our view: The investment significance is that rising AI compute demand does not only require more processors. It can also increase the amount and sophistication of networking equipment required around those processors. The risk is that technology standards evolve quickly, creating winners and losers even within a growing market.

2. Nvidia is putting billions behind the optical supply chain

In March 2026, Nvidia announced separate $2 billion investments in Lumentum and Coherent, alongside multiyear supply and technology agreements (Source: Nvidia press release, 2 March 2026).

For Lumentum, the agreement includes a multibillion-dollar Nvidia purchase commitment and future capacity rights for advanced laser components. Nvidia's agreement with Coherent similarly includes a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment covering advanced laser and optical networking products.

Our view: Nvidia's investments provide a strong signal that optical connectivity is becoming strategically important to future AI architecture. But strategic investment by a major customer should not itself be treated as evidence of future investment returns. Customer concentration, execution and the pace of AI infrastructure spending remain important risks.

3. Lumentum's earnings are starting to show the demand

Lumentum's fiscal fourth-quarter results (Source: Lumentum Holdings Fiscal Q4 and FY2026 results, 11 August 2026) showed how rapidly the business is expanding.

Revenue reached $1.01 billion, up 109% year on year.
GAAP operating margin rose to 27.8%, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 36.6%, versus 15.0% a year earlier.
Management guided for fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $1.225–1.275 billion and non-GAAP operating margin of 39.5–40.5%.

The company also reported a $7.2 billion GAAP net loss in the quarter. This was driven primarily by a $7.8 billion one-off, non-cash loss on debt extinguishment related to the equitisation of certain convertible notes. Non-GAAP net income was $326.3 million.

Growth is being supported by products including 1.6T cloud modules, optical circuit switches and high-power lasers used in emerging co-packaged optics systems.

Our view: The key development is that the optics thesis is increasingly visible in reported revenue and operating margins rather than relying only on expectations around future AI demand. However, current growth rates should not simply be extrapolated: capacity additions, competition, pricing pressure or slower hyperscaler spending could change the earnings trajectory.

4. US-China tensions could reshape the competitive landscape

The Trump administration is drafting restrictions on imports of new models of Chinese data-centre components, including optical transceivers (Source: Reuters, 4-5 August 2026). The measures remain under consideration and are not final.

Chinese companies including Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are important suppliers of optical modules to AI and cloud infrastructure.

Our view: Restrictions could potentially shift some demand towards non-Chinese suppliers such as Lumentum and Coherent. But the outcome is not straightforward. Restrictions could also raise equipment costs, tighten supply, disrupt global supply chains or trigger further Chinese retaliation.

Who are the major global optics players?

The optical ecosystem spans lasers, transceivers, networking equipment, fibre and semiconductor components.

Company	Role in the optics ecosystem
Lumentum (LITE)	Lasers, optical components, high-speed modules and emerging co-packaged optics technologies. Nvidia strategic partner.
Coherent (COHR)	Diversified photonics supplier covering lasers, transceivers and optical networking. Nvidia strategic partner.
Zhongji Innolight	Major global supplier of high-speed optical transceivers used in cloud and AI data centres.
Eoptolink	Chinese supplier of high-speed optical modules for cloud and AI infrastructure.
Ciena (CIEN)	Optical networking equipment and high-speed connectivity across data-centre and telecom networks.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)	Optical transceivers and laser technology serving hyperscale and networking customers.
Corning (GLW)	Optical fibre and connectivity infrastructure supporting data-centre networks.

Broadcom and Marvell also have exposure through networking and connectivity chips, although optics represents only one part of their broader semiconductor businesses.

Our view: The companies have very different business mixes, geographic exposures and competitive positions. Investors assessing the optics theme therefore need to distinguish between relatively concentrated photonics businesses and diversified companies where optical connectivity is only one earnings driver.

ETF exposure to the theme: Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF

For investors assessing the sector but seeking exposure across several companies rather than a single stock, a new thematic ETF has also emerged.

The Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) began trading on 6 August 2026. It is an actively managed ETF focused on companies involved in technologies including optical transceivers, lasers, silicon photonics, optical interconnects and related photonic infrastructure.

Its initial top five holdings are: Lumentum, Coherent, Eoptolink, Zhongji Innolight, and Ciena (Source: Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF fund information and holdings, data as of 6 August 2026).

Our view: LYTE can be viewed as a global photonics basket rather than a pure US reshoring or China-substitution theme. Its exposure to both US and Chinese companies provides diversification across the optical supply chain, but also means geopolitical restrictions affecting Chinese suppliers could create risks within the portfolio itself.

Want broader exposure to the AI buildout? Explore our AI Value Chain stocks shortlist on SaxoTrader and SaxoInvestor, featuring Lumentum and other optics names alongside companies across semiconductors, memory, networking, power and cooling.

Investor takeaway

The AI investment story is becoming broader than GPUs alone.

Memory, power, cooling and data-centre infrastructure have already become important parts of the AI value chain. Optical networking is increasingly another layer worth watching as larger AI systems require greater volumes of data to move quickly and efficiently.

But the risks remain significant. Hyperscaler capital expenditure could slow, customer concentration is high, technologies and standards are evolving quickly, US-China restrictions could disrupt supply chains, and high expectations can leave companies vulnerable when results disappoint.

But for investors looking beyond GPUs while still participating in the AI infrastructure buildout, optics is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Technology Micron Technology Inc. Marvell Technology Group Ltd Advanced Micro Devices

Oil surges, equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Crude jumped about 5% and dragged gold, silver and bond volatility up with it. Equity volatility went the other way. The question before Wednesday’s inflation print is which of the two has it right.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.46 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (137.13) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.91

A 5% move in crude left the index flat and the sectors pulling apart. The S&P 500 closed at 7,753.11, down 0.06%, while energy producers gained 5.73% and semiconductors lost 2.28%. The eleven sector funds spanned a 5.95-point range on a session the index barely moved.
The volatility bid went to gold, silver and bonds rather than to stocks. GVZ rose 8.81% to 27.90 and silver volatility 10.04% to 50.95, while one-day S&P 500 volatility fell 17.78% to 9.34.
Wednesday’s inflation print is still not being bid. S&P 500 options price 78 points, about 1.00%, into Friday’s expiry, against the 79 points that time decay alone would have left from Monday’s reading.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Crude extended a four-session advance after fresh US demands in the Iran negotiations pushed a Strait of Hormuz reopening further out, reviving inflation questions two days before the July consumer price report. Saxo’s Market Quick Take covers the macro detail.

Market snapshot

US (Monday 10 August close): S&P 500 7,753.11 (-0.06%), Nasdaq 100 29,621.80 (-0.34%), Dow Jones 53,981.41 (-0.11%), IWM 299.98 (-0.52%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.04%, so the drag sat in a handful of large names rather than across the market. Nvidia fell 2.86% and Intel 4.1% on a USD 15bn share sale, while Berkshire Hathaway gained 1.5%.
Europe: Stoxx 600 660.46 (+0.03%) at a record close, Euro Stoxx 50 6,535.63 (+0.18%), DAX 26,323.88 (+0.02%). Energy led the region and rate-sensitive sectors lagged.
Asia (Tuesday session, in progress): Kospi 6,382.18 (+1.31%) as Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open, Hang Seng 25,773.56 (-0.63%), Hang Seng Tech 4,857.12 (-1.27%). Japan closed for Mountain Day.
Commodities and rates: Brent settled near USD 87.72 and WTI near USD 82.13, each about 5% higher on the session. Gold traded above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months, with GLD up 1.02%. The US 10-year yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.705% and the 2-year to 4.243%.
Volatility detail: VIX 15.46 (+3.76%), VIX1D 9.34 (-17.78%), VIX9D 12.77 (+6.77%), front-month VIX futures 16.91 at a 1.45-point premium to spot, second month 18.58, SKEW 137.13 (up from 132.57), three-month implied correlation 11.14 (+6.30%), dispersion 36.63 (-0.30%).
Market regime: Low Vol Bull, VIX 15.46, 20-day realised volatility 13.6% (stable), S&P 500 3.40% above its 50-day moving average.

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo’s pricing overview.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 10 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned to the upside, and it was concentrated. Roughly 72% of confirmed-opening mega-cap premium went to calls, driven by repeated ask-side buying of one October strike corridor in a single large-cap software name. Downside in that complex was either sold or pushed out to 2027 and 2028 expiries. Semiconductors were the exception and looked defensive rather than directional, with long-dated puts opened across the major names while upside calls were sold.
Sector and ETF flow was more protective. Every large downside line in the broad index and ETF complex was structured as cover, spread across September, November, December and March expiries rather than concentrated in the near term, and energy premium ran roughly 63% to puts even as the sector rallied. Metals went the other way, with about 80% of a heavy day’s premium in gold calls. Much of the size crossed at mid, so the shape is readable and the initiating side is not.

Volatility surface - 11 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX 15.46 (+3.76%)
VIX1D 9.34 (-17.78%)
VIX9D 12.77 (+6.77%)
VIX3M 18.98 · VIX6M 21.14 · VIX1Y 22.76

VIX futures

Front-month 16.91 (-0.28%), a 1.45-point premium to spot, down from 2.05 on Monday
Second-month 18.58 (-0.09%), curve in contango

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 137.13, up from 132.57
COR3M 11.14 (+6.30%)
DSPX 36.63 (-0.30%)

Other volatility measures

VVIX 92.51 (+2.31%) · MOVE 75.46 (+4.76%)
VXN 23.04 (+0.96%), 1.49 times VIX
GVZ 27.90 (+8.81%)

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

The inflation print is being treated as a date, not an event. S&P 500 options price 32 points, about 0.41%, for today’s expiry and 78 points, about 1.00%, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Monday’s edition quoted 91 points for that same Friday expiry, and flat-volatility decay alone would have left about 79 as the window shortened from four sessions to three. In our view the market may have priced in nothing extra for the consumer price report, even after a 5% move in crude.
The front end has almost no cushion left. VIX1D at 9.34 sits at 0.60 times VIX spot, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to 1.45 points from 2.05 while spot volatility itself rose. In our assessment a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.
Tail protection was bid while the body was not. SKEW rose 4.56 points to 137.13 and VVIX firmed to 92.51, on a session when VIX spot sat below 16. In our view that combination may point to hedging being placed in the wings rather than at the money, which is a different exposure from a general rise in fear.
The index is leaning on dispersion to stay calm. Three-month implied correlation held at 11.14 and dispersion at 36.63, while the sector funds realised a 5.95-point spread and the index moved 0.06%. In our assessment index volatility may be sitting this low partly because offsetting single-name moves are absorbing the shock, which is a cushion that could thin quickly if a macro surprise moved everything the same way.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges: pricing overview.

Today’s catalysts

12:00 CET US July NFIB small business optimism
14:15 CET US ADP weekly employment change
16:00 CET US July existing home sales
18:00 CET EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which carries more weight than usual with crude at these levels
19:00 CET US Treasury auctions 3-year notes
Earnings: Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, Constellation Software
The July US consumer price index lands Wednesday

Conclusion

Monday priced a commodity shock without pricing an equity one. Crude moved about 5%, bond and metals volatility followed it higher, and short-dated equity volatility went the other way. In our view that split may hold only as long as the sectors keep offsetting each other, and Wednesday’s inflation data is the most direct test of whether they will.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.
The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Gold and silver rebound as buyers return, but the real test lies ahead

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Gold and silver have rebounded after successfully resisting renewed selling pressure, with gold finding support below USD 4,000 and silver below USD 57 before softer oil prices, a less-hawkish-than-feared Fed, yen intervention and weak US employment data helped trigger a sharp recovery.
The demand picture is broadening again. Central banks and Asian investors continue to provide structural support, while Western ETF investors have started to return
The macro backdrop has turned more supportive, but remains fragile. A softer dollar and reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening have helped precious metals, but renewed inflation pressure, another oil-price surge or stronger US data could quickly revive rate-hike expectations.
Gold has defended the downside but has yet to confirm a renewed bull-market advance. Support around USD 4,200 is increasingly important, while the major upside test is once again focusing on the 200-day moving average, currently sitting just below USD 4,500.

Precious metals regain their footing

The most notable development across precious metals is not the strength of last week's rebound, but the sell-off that failed to materialise beforehand when gold repeatedly resisted selling attempts below USD 4,000, while silver found buyers below USD 57. This resilience came despite several headwinds that had weighed heavily on the sector during the second quarter, including elevated bond yields, renewed concerns about US rate hikes driven by rising inflation amid surging fuel costs, a stronger dollar and subdued investment demand from Western asset managers.

Gold had fallen sharply from its January record above USD 5,500, while second-quarter losses were the largest since 2013. Yet the inability of sellers to force a sustained break below USD 4,000 increasingly suggested that underlying demand remained strong enough to absorb liquidation from more rate-sensitive investors. That resilience last week drove a 7% rebound in gold, its strongest weekly gain since January, while silver climbed back above USD 65. Friday's weak US employment report provided the latest catalyst as it reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and helped push the dollar lower.

Fed, yen intervention and jobs data change the mood

The first important catalyst was the late-July FOMC meeting. The outcome was dovish relative to what had become increasingly hawkish market expectations rather than dovish in an absolute sense.

With higher energy prices feeding inflation concerns, markets had moved towards pricing a meaningful probability of another rate increase. The Fed instead left its policy rate unchanged with three regional Fed presidents dissented in favour of tightening, underlining that inflation concerns have not disappeared. The resulting modest reduction in rate-hike expectations took some of the wind out of the dollar's sails, providing initial support to gold and silver.

That was followed by the highly unusual US-Japan intervention episode after USDJPY surged towards a four-decade high near 164. Japanese authorities initially stepped in to support the yen, followed by intervention from the US Treasury through the New York Fed. The coordinated action briefly drove USDJPY down towards 155, adding further pressure on the dollar and providing another supportive impulse for precious metals.

Some of that impact has since faded, with USDJPY returning towards 160, highlighting the difficulty of reversing currency trends through intervention alone when underlying interest-rate differentials remain wide. Taken together, the sequence has been supportive: a less-hawkish-than-feared Fed, a weaker dollar, coordinated yen intervention, softer oil prices and finally weaker US employment data.

Western investors begin to return

Perhaps more importantly for the medium-term outlook, there are tentative signs that Western investment demand is beginning to recover. During much of the correction, central banks and Asian investors continued accumulating gold while many Western asset managers remained sellers, deterred by rising bond yields and the prospect of higher funding costs. This created an unusual divergence between strong underlying physical and official-sector demand and weak demand from the investors traditionally most sensitive to US monetary policy.

That gap may now be starting to narrow after the World Gold Council reported that global physically backed gold ETFs attracted USD 3 billion of net inflows during July, ending two consecutive months of outflows. Total holdings rose by 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes, with European funds driving most of the buying while North American inflows remained modest. Western investors are therefore returning, but there has not yet been a broad-based repositioning into gold, with North America still the only major region to record ETF outflows during the first half of the year.

Central banks and Asia continue to provide the foundation

While Western investment demand has fluctuated with interest-rate expectations, central-bank and Asian demand has remained an important source of underlying support. The World Gold Council reported a sharp rebound in official-sector purchases during the second quarter after an unusually weak start to the year. Although central-bank buying during the first half remained below the extraordinary pace seen during recent years, the underlying motivation for reserve diversification appears intact.

This matters because the experience of 2022–23 showed how central-bank and Asian demand can alter gold's traditional relationship with Western financial conditions. Aggressive central-bank tightening and rising real yields failed to produce the deep and prolonged correction many Western investors had expected, partly because physical and official-sector buyers repeatedly stepped in.

A similar dynamic has helped establish a floor beneath gold during the latest correction. The question now is what happens if that structural demand is joined by a sustained return of Western portfolio flows. The combination would represent a materially stronger demand environment than the one that merely prevented gold from falling further.

Silver joins the rebound

Silver has participated in the recovery, as per usual at a somewhat faster pace given liquidity constraints but overall the outlook remains somewhat different from gold's. The metal continues to benefit from its monetary characteristics and tends to amplify moves in gold when investment demand strengthens. At the same time, silver retains a sizeable industrial exposure, making its outlook more sensitive to global growth.

The Silver Institute expects the market to record a sixth consecutive structural deficit in 2026, while investment demand is expected to remain strong. However, industrial fabrication is forecast to decline by around 2%, partly reflecting continued thrifting and substitution in photovoltaic applications.

Silver therefore offers potentially greater upside participation should the precious-metals rally broaden, but also greater vulnerability if weaker US data develops into a more pronounced global growth slowdown.

What could still go wrong?

Despite the improving backdrop, several risks argue against becoming outright bullish just yet. The most obvious is inflation. The July Fed meeting reduced immediate tightening concerns, but three policymakers still wanted higher rates. A renewed acceleration in inflation could quickly rebuild expectations for another hike, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher and once again challenging investment demand for gold from rate sensitive investors.

Oil and especially fuel prices remain particularly important in this respect. Lower prices helped the precious-metals recovery last week, but the latest renewed rise following fading hopes for a US-Iran agreement serves as a reminder that the energy shock has not disappeared. A sustained oil rally could revive inflation concerns and complicate the Fed's policy choices.

There is also no guarantee that the recent ETF inflows represent the beginning of a sustained allocation shift. July's improvement was encouraging, but North American participation remains limited. Finally, stronger-than-expected US economic data could reverse some of the recent moves in yields, the dollar and rate expectations. The market has rapidly shifted away from expecting imminent tightening, leaving precious metals increasingly sensitive to incoming inflation and activity data.

Gold faces its next technical test

From a technical perspective, gold has, after finding support below USD 4,000, broken above recent resistance, with the former resistance area around USD 4,200 now acting as support. However, the bigger test sits around USD 4,500, where the declining 200-day moving average currently sits ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-June decline at USD 4,585. A sustained break above this zone would strengthen the technical outlook considerably and could open the way towards the 50% retracement near USD 4,690, followed by the 61.8% level around USD 4,860.

Conversely, a rejection at or before the USD 4,500 area would suggest that the consolidation has further to run, potentially bringing the USD 4,000–3,960 support zone back into focus. For now, the precious-metals outlook is showing signs of improving, not least underpinned by ongoing structural demand that helped prevent a deeper correction, while the macro environment has become more supportive and Western investors are showing tentative signs of returning.

That is a constructive combination, but not yet confirmation that the next sustained leg higher has begun. Gold has demonstrated where buyers are prepared to defend the market. The next test is whether they have sufficient strength to break the sequence of lower highs.

Key drivers for precious metals: rates, yields, dollar and investment flows - Source: Saxo & Bloomberg

Spot gold with technical support and resistance levels - Source: Saxo

Silver with technical support and resistance levels - Source: Saxo

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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Ole Hansen

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Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI.

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 09:15:00 Z

US long yields are at cycle highs again ahead of key US data.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups.
FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot".
The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

From Nvidia to Wall Street: who pays for the AI buildout?

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI’s next bottleneck may be capital as infrastructure spending outruns what technology companies want to fund alone.
CoreWeave tests whether enormous contracted demand can translate into better cash economics as new capacity comes online.
Follow the AI dollar: chipmakers, cloud operators and financiers can grow quickly, but their returns may differ sharply.

Artificial intelligence (AI) keeps moving its bottlenecks. First, advanced chips were scarce. Then data-centre space, electricity and networking joined the queue. Now money is becoming harder to ignore.

On 10 August 2026, Nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to create financing platforms designed to mobilise more than 500 billion USD of third-party capital for AI infrastructure. This is not Nvidia writing a 500 billion USD cheque. It is an attempt to make computing infrastructure easier for outside investors to finance.

CoreWeave reports second-quarter results on 11 August after the US market closes, making it a useful live test. The specialist AI cloud company rents powerful computing infrastructure. Demand is enormous. The harder question is what it costs to serve it.

Wall Street joins the server room

Nvidia’s move shows how the AI cycle is changing. Graphics processing units (GPUs) need buildings, power, cooling and networking before customers can use them.

The money therefore travels through a long chain: capital into data centres, then Nvidia chips and networking, then cloud capacity sold to AI developers and enterprises. Every layer can grow, but the economics differ.

Cheaper financing can help Nvidia customers build more infrastructure using its technology. Financiers can earn fees and interest. Cloud operators face a different burden: spend heavily today, then depend on utilisation and pricing to make those assets profitable tomorrow.

CoreWeave turns demand into a financing question

CoreWeave’s first quarter shows why revenue growth is an incomplete scorecard. Revenue more than doubled to 2.08 billion USD and contracted backlog reached 99.4 billion USD. Yet it spent 7.7 billion USD on property and equipment, carried roughly 24.9 billion USD of debt and recorded 536 million USD of net interest expense.

For 2026, CoreWeave has indicated capital spending of roughly 31 billion to 35 billion USD, more than double 2025 levels. That spending creates value only if customers use the capacity, contracts turn into revenue on schedule and financing does not absorb too much profit.

This is where return on invested capital (ROIC) helps. It asks how much operating profit a business produces from the money tied up in it. Booming revenue can still disappoint shareholders if every extra unit of growth requires even more capital.

Five words matter in tonight’s results: demand, capacity, capital, cash and concentration. Is backlog becoming revenue? Is new capacity filling quickly? Is financing becoming cheaper? Is cash generation improving? How much depends on a few large customers?

The same bill arrives in different envelopes

CoreWeave is not alone. Nebius, another AI cloud provider, raised 775 million USD in secured debt on 17 July, backed by GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows. Super Micro Computer, which builds AI servers, announced up to 7 billion USD of equity and equity-linked financing in June to fund components for its order book.

The structures differ, but the lesson is similar: rapid demand can consume cash before it generates it.

Risks: when the maths stops cooperating

Three risks matter most. First, utilisation or pricing could weaken if capacity grows faster than demand. Watch backlog conversion and margins. Second, financing costs could stay high. Rising interest expense or repeated capital raises are warning signs. Third, hardware improves quickly. If older GPUs lose economic value faster than expected, replacement spending can erode returns.

Investor playbook

Compare capital spending with revenue and margin progress, not revenue growth alone.
Watch backlog conversion. Contracts matter most when they become utilised capacity and cash.
Separate technology suppliers, infrastructure owners and financiers. Their economics can diverge sharply.
Stress-test customer concentration and hardware cycles before extrapolating today’s demand.

The bill becomes part of the story

The AI race started as a scramble for chips. It became a race for data centres, power and networks. Nvidia’s new Wall Street partnerships show that capital is now becoming part of the infrastructure itself. CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro show why: extraordinary demand can require extraordinary funding long before the cash economics mature.

For investors, the useful question is therefore no longer simply who is building the most AI capacity. It is who can turn that capacity into durable cash returns without continually asking lenders or shareholders to refill the tank. In the next phase of AI, scale will matter. So will the return on every dollar used to build it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVidia Corp.

Market Quick Take - Oil rally revives inflation worry as CPI approaches - 11 August 2026

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 06:43:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A four-day climb in crude revived inflation worry just as Trump hardened his terms with Tehran
Equities: US stocks edged lower, Europe held near records, while Asia was mixed as oil and inflation risks stayed in focus
Volatility: Equity vol stayed calm while the volatility bid moved into gold, silver and rates
Digital Assets: Crypto equities sold off before an after-hours data-centre lease reset the miner story
Commodities: Gold hits two-month high despite renewed oil strength as deal remains elusive
Fixed Income: Global bond yields jumped on the crude oil price surge Monday
Currencies: Sterling firmer on labour market data, USD sideways, JPY lower

Macro

Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.
China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.
A lesser known UK labour market survey, the REC-KPMG & S&P Global monthly report issued late Sunday, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner to the positive side as the overall Permanent Placements index rose to exactly 50, the first time in a non-contracting level since late 2022.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – US Jul. NFIB Small Business Optimism
1215 – US ADP Weekly Employment Change for four weeks ending July 25
1400 – US Jul. Existing Home Sales
1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook
1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Monday (yesterday): Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile
Tuesday: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,753.11 on Monday, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3% as a 5.0% jump in oil revived inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s US consumer price report. Nvidia fell 2.9% despite unveiling partnerships with six major financial groups to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure, while Intel dropped 4.1% after announcing plans for a $15 billion share sale. Berkshire Hathaway gained 1.5% after stronger-than-expected results and renewed share buybacks. Markets now turn to inflation data for the next signal on Federal Reserve policy.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished effectively flat at a record 660.45 on Monday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to 6,535.62, the DAX was flat and the FTSE 100 fell 0.4%. Energy led with a 1.3% gain as oil prices jumped, while telecoms and other rate-sensitive areas lagged. Plus500 rose 2.1% after reporting higher first-half underlying profit, while Coca-Cola HBC fell 4.8% after BNP Paribas cut the bottler to neutral. Investors next watch euro-area labour data and Wednesday’s US inflation report for rate guidance.
Asia: Asian equities were mixed on Tuesday, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.2% in afternoon trade, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.6% and Shanghai’s Composite off 0.1%, while Japan was closed for Mountain Day. Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open and helped lift Seoul, while higher oil prices kept inflation and geopolitical risks in focus across the region. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.5% after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 4.35%. Investors now look to Wednesday’s US inflation data, with energy prices adding another complication for central banks.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Oil's four-day advance revived inflation concern, yet equity vol stayed subdued: VIX closed at 15.46 and VIX9D at 12.77, the cash curve in firm contango out to VIX1Y at 22.76. VVIX at 92.51 and SKEW at 137.13 both firmed, consistent with steady demand for tail protection.
The volatility bid sat outside equities. GVZ rose 8.8% to 27.90 and VXSLV 10.0% to 50.95 as gold cleared $4,400, while MOVE gained 4.8% to 75.46 and VXTLT 8.2%. SPX options imply 32 points, 0.41%, for today's expiry and 78 points, 1.00%, into Friday 14 August, with July CPI on Wednesday the primary catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,060 +0.21% | ETHEREUM ~1,879 +0.38% | IBIT 36.23 -1.55% | ETHA 14.14 -2.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Crypto drifted while the equity complex sold off. Spot majors were broadly flat overnight, but US-listed proxies fell with Monday's risk tone: the bitcoin and ether ETFs both slipped, Coinbase lost 3.2% and Strategy 2.7%, and every listed miner fell between 3.8% and 6.0%. Deribit's DVOL eased to 35.95.
The miner weakness may prove dated. After the close, Riot Platforms was named as counterparty to a 20-year, 191 megawatt AI capacity lease with Anthropic worth about $9.1 billion, sending the shares up roughly 25% after hours. The Senate has scheduled a September procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.

Commodities

Oil: Brent held near $88 a barrel, little changed overnight and up roughly 10% over the prior four sessions, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no sign of resolution, and after Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran, complicating the outlook for a deal. US energy equities were the clear winners of the Monday session, XLE up 4.66% and XOP up 5.73%, the largest sector moves on the tape. Natural gas eased 0.72% to $2.774.
Precious metals: Spot gold traded back above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months before softening in response to renewed headwinds from rising oil prices, firmer bond yields and a stronger dollar. Ahead of Wednesday’s key US CPI print, technical focused traders are now watching the 200-day moving average just below USD 4,500 to determine the strength of last week's breakout and 7% rally. The equity complex followed, GLD up 1.02%, GDX up 0.67% and GDXJ up 0.99%.
Industrial metals and grains: Copper is nearing a record above $14,000 a tonne on the LME, supported by warehouse tightness, US stockpiling ahead of a Section 232 decision, and a partial export ban on concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Meanwhile, Codelco, the world’s top producer saw a 14% drop in copper output last quarter, highlighting current supply challenges. On Comex, copper trades near USD 6.65 having seen some its recent buildup premium over LME being reduced in the last three sessions.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries sold off and the treasury yield curve steepened as crude oil prices spiked higher Monday. Treasury yields rebounded to levels trading before the soft US jobs report on Friday, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield trading back up over four basis points near 4.24% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose over six basis points to close Monday above 4.70% for only the second time this year. The US Treasury will auction 3-year notes later today.

Currencies

The JPY weakened further late Monday and only firmed slightly in early Tuesday trading as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jump in global bond yields weighed on Monday. USDJPY traded as high as 159.36 late Monday before consolidating slightly in muted trading in Asia on Tuesday, still up almost 1% from Friday’s close of 157.76. EURJPY tested its 200-day moving average near 15.390 on Monday before easing back slightly.
The US dollar was only slightly firmer despite the jump in US treasury yields Monday, with majors outside of USDJPY little changed on Tuesday relative to early Monday levels.
Sterling rallied broadly Monday, sending EURGBP below 0.8550 by the close of trade for the first time in two weeks and GBPUSD above 1.3500, as a lesser known UK labour market survey, the July REC-KPMG report, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner (see more above).
Australia’s Reserve Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% as universally expected and AUD dipped slightly immediately after the decision as the MPC judged the policy rate to be “somewhat restrictive” and forecast slightly higher unemployment, though saying that the labor market is a “little tight” while vowing to raise rates if upside inflation risks materialize.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Berkshire is buying again: The latest portfolio moves investors should watch

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 Z

Key points:

Berkshire turned buyer again in Q2, purchasing about $23.5 billion of equities versus $3.7 billion of sales and ending 14 straight quarters as a net stock seller.
Alphabet and Berkshire itself were key Q2 moves, while recent quarters have also brought new exposure to Delta, Macy’s, OxyChem and Taylor Morrison.
The bigger signal is capital deployment: After years of building cash, Berkshire is increasingly finding opportunities across technology, travel, industrials and housing.

Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter results delivered a clear message for investors: after years of building cash, the company is starting to put more of it to work.

In Q2, Berkshire bought around $23.5 billion of equities and sold just $3.7 billion, ending 14 consecutive quarters as a net seller of stocks. Cash and Treasury holdings remain enormous at roughly $365 billion, but the direction has changed.

What changed in Q2?

Alphabet: conviction rises

Alphabet was the standout move. Berkshire invested another roughly $10 billion in Google’s parent during the quarter, taking it into Berkshire’s largest listed holdings.

The investment gives Berkshire greater exposure to digital advertising, cloud and AI, while still fitting its traditional preference for businesses with dominant market positions, strong cash flows and durable competitive advantages.

For investors, the more interesting message may be that technology increasingly fits the Berkshire playbook when quality and valuation line up.

Berkshire itself: buybacks return

Berkshire also repurchased around $4.5 billion of its own shares during Q2, followed by further purchases in July. It was Berkshire's biggest quarter of buybacks in nearly two years, and 19 times the $235 million it spent in the first quarter.

That is an important signal: Berkshire only buys back shares when management believes they trade below conservatively estimated intrinsic value.

The bigger shift has been building

Q2 may be the clearest sign that Berkshire is deploying capital again, but the change has been building over the past few quarters.

OxyChem: Berkshire completed its roughly $9.4 billion acquisition of Occidental Petroleum’s chemicals business in January, adding another sizeable industrial business to the group.
Delta Air Lines: Berkshire disclosed a significant new position earlier this year, marking a notable return to airlines after exiting the sector during the pandemic.
Macy’s: A much smaller new holding, but still an interesting value-oriented addition given the retailer’s restructuring and asset story.
Taylor Morrison: In July, Berkshire completed its $6.8 billion acquisition of the US homebuilder, deepening its exposure to housing alongside Clayton Homes and its existing building-products businesses.

Together, the recent moves point to a broader mix of opportunities across technology, travel, industrials and housing.

Want to explore the Berkshire portfolio stocks? See our The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio stocks shortlist for the key listed holdings.

Investor takeaway

For investors who follow Berkshire, the most useful question is no longer simply “what does Berkshire own?”

It is increasingly “where is Berkshire putting new money?”

After several years when cash accumulation dominated the story, 2026 is starting to look different. Berkshire is buying equities again, acquiring whole businesses and repurchasing its own shares.

That makes the latest portfolio changes particularly worth watching — not as trades to copy blindly, but as a source of ideas for investors looking for durable businesses, strong cash flows and long-term value.

Risk: Berkshire’s purchase prices, time horizon and ability to tolerate drawdowns can be very different from those of individual investors. Its portfolio is best used as an idea-generation watchlist rather than a blueprint to replicate.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B Alphabet Inc. Alphabet Bank Of America Coca Cola Coca-Cola Co. The Coca-cola Chevron Corp Chevron Corp. Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Gold runs hot, equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

A jobs report that missed by more than a hundred thousand pushed stocks to records and pinned short-dated volatility to the floor. Gold went the other way entirely. Wednesday’s inflation print decides which one had it right.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 14.90 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (132.57) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.95

A jobs miss produced records, not a scare. July payrolls fell 23,000 against roughly +83,000 expected, and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, up 0.62%. Short-dated equity volatility went the other way, with VIX1D down 9.5% to 11.36.
The week’s real volatility sat in metals. Gold posted its best week since January, +7.3%, and gold volatility rose while equity volatility fell, with GVZ up 3.14% to 25.64.
Wednesday’s inflation print is not being bid. SPXW options price 91 points (1.17%) into Friday’s expiry, against the 92 points that flat-volatility decay alone would have left.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

The July employment report landed on Friday well below consensus, with the prior two months revised down a combined 103,000, and markets read a weakening labour market as removing the near-term case for a Federal Reserve rate increase. Odds of a September hike fell below 50%. More detail in Saxo’s Market Quick Take, 10 August 2026.

Market snapshot

US (Friday 7 August close): S&P 500 7,757.64 (+0.62%, a record), Nasdaq 100 29,722.30 (+1.19%), Dow Jones 54,042.39 (+0.28%), small caps +1.11%. High-beta led: disruptive-growth funds +4.89%, software +3.29%, semiconductors +1.96%. Atlassian rose 35.3% on guidance, Trade Desk fell 21.9%.
Europe: Stoxx 600 660.26 (+0.31%) at a record and a fourth straight weekly gain, DAX 26,319.45 (+0.69%), CAC 40 +0.17%, FTSE 100 -0.29%. Kingspan gained 17.8% on a raised profit forecast.
Asia (Monday session, in progress): Nikkei +2.0%, Kospi 6,302.24 (+0.69%), Hang Seng 25,853.69 (+0.72%), while the CSI 300 fell 0.52% after July Chinese consumer inflation slowed to +0.5% year on year.
Commodities and rates: Brent $84.43 (+1.05%), WTI $78.77 (+0.75%), gold futures $4,387.70 after last week’s 7.3% advance, silver +0.54%, gold miners +7.11% and junior miners +7.51% on Friday. US 10-year 4.654%, 2-year 4.212%, 30-year 5.204%.
Volatility detail: VIX 14.90 (-1.65%), VIX1D 11.36 (-9.48%), VIX9D 11.96 (-5.53%), front-month VIX futures 16.95 at a 2.05-point premium to spot, second month 18.55, SKEW 132.57, three-month implied correlation 10.48 (+11.37%), dispersion 36.74 (-5.06%).
Market regime: Low-volatility bull, VIX 14.90, 20-day realised volatility 14.0% and stable, S&P 500 3.51% above its 50-day moving average.

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 7 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned to calls on premium without leaning to direction. Mega-cap technology took 60.5% of confirmed-opening premium in calls, yet the densest single line was an October put block in the largest chip name, crossed at mid, so the side is unreadable. Semiconductors carried a clear credit tone, with the session’s biggest line sold rather than bought and put selling running alongside it. Crypto-linked equities were the exception, where long-dated deep in-the-money call structures took $529.6m of $609.5m in opening premium.
Sector and ETF flow was two-sided at the index level and one-sided in metals and duration. Broad index premium of $2.18bn split 58.4% to calls, but long-dated index puts and long-dated index calls were both bought at the offer while near-dated upside was sold. Metals gave the cleanest directional read of the day, with a November gold position rolled to higher call strikes and near-dated miner upside bought. Rates ETF flow leaned to higher bond prices, calls taking $14.7m of $18.7m. Defensives, biotech, energy and financials produced no readable stance.

Volatility surface – 10 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX 14.90 (-1.65%)
VIX1D 11.36 (-9.48%)
VIX9D 11.96 (-5.53%)
VIX3M 18.72 · VIX6M 21.02 · VIX1Y 22.66

VIX futures

Front-month 16.95, a 2.05-point premium to spot, narrower than Friday’s 2.15
Second-month 18.55, front-to-second ratio 0.915, contango

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 132.57, down from 134.73
COR3M 10.48 (+11.37%)
DSPX 36.74 (-5.06%)

Other vol measures

VVIX 90.42 · MOVE 72.03 (-5.37%)
VXN 22.82 (-4.72%), 1.53 times VIX
GVZ 25.64 (+3.14%)

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

A quiet session, then a manageable week. SPXW options price a 40-point move, about 0.52%, for today’s expiry and 91 points, about 1.17%, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. In our view that pair may describe a market expecting Wednesday’s inflation print to be absorbed rather than to reset the trend.
Inflation risk is being priced down, not up. Friday’s edition quoted 103 points for this same 14 August expiry. Flat-volatility time decay alone would have left roughly 92 points as the window shortened from five sessions to four, and the market sits at 91. In our assessment the shortfall may suggest that taking payrolls risk out of the front end mattered more than putting a consumer price index print into it, which is an unusual configuration ahead of a major release.
The front end has very little cushion left. VIX1D at 11.36 sits at 0.76 times VIX spot, the cash curve runs in steep contango out to VIX3M at 18.72, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to 2.05 points from 2.15. In our view a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the absolute level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.
Breadth improved, and the index gave up its dispersion cushion. Three-month implied correlation rose 11.37% to 10.48 while dispersion fell 5.06% to 36.74, on a session where the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 0.70% against the cap-weighted index’s 0.62%. In our assessment an advance of that shape may leave index volatility more exposed to a common macro shock and less able to lean on offsetting single-name moves.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today’s catalysts

08:00 CET Norway July consumer price index
Tuesday 06:30 CET Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, expected to hold
Wednesday 14:30 CET US July consumer price index, the week’s main event, with the core rate expected at its lowest annual reading since March 2021
Thursday US producer price index, plus results from Applied Materials, Adyen and Netease
Friday US retail sales and preliminary University of Michigan sentiment
Reporting today: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile

The week’s volatility bid moved to metals

Equity volatility fell across the front end on Friday while gold volatility rose, which is the one relationship from last week that has not yet reverted. Gold gained 7.3% on the week, its strongest since January, and GVZ closed 3.14% higher at 25.64, more than 1.7 times VIX. The miners moved further than the metal, with the GDX gold-miner ETF up 7.11% and the GDXJ junior-miner ETF 7.51% on Friday alone. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges in the pricing overview.

In our view the combination of a softer dollar, lower front-end yields and continued official-sector buying may help explain why the options market is currently willing to pay more for gold optionality than for index optionality. Oil volatility remains the outright outlier at 3.75 times VIX, with the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Conclusion

The market has taken payrolls risk out of the front end without putting inflation risk back in, which in our view may leave short-dated volatility priced for a benign Wednesday from an already low base. Meanwhile the options market is paying up for gold rather than for the index, on the session after a record close, and in our view that is the more useful signal of the two. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

COT update: Dollar bulls retreat as metals attract fresh demand

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:00:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 4 August 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 4 August 2026.
The speculative USD long slumped the most in six years as BOJ and Fed intervention supported a 72% reduction in the yen short. However, positioning remained distinctly dollar bullish, with speculators maintaining net short positions across all tracked currencies except the Mexican peso.
Precious and industrial metals attracted renewed buying, with gold length rising ahead of its technical breakout, silver and platinum exposure increasing sharply, and the copper net long reaching a 5½-year high amid tightening supply outside the US.
Energy and grains saw reduced exposure despite persistent supply risks, while sugar stood out as short covering gathered pace ahead of a near-10% rally driven by tighter supply expectations in Brazil and India and rising El Niño concerns.

Yen rebound hits dollar longs

The latest reporting week to 4 August, covers a period in which the dollar’s recent advance came to an abrupt halt after late-July intervention by the BOJ and Fed helped support the Japanese yen. By the end of the reporting week last Tuesday, the dollar index had fallen 1.5%, while the yen had strengthened almost 4% against the dollar.

Responding to the sharp reversal, speculators cut bullish dollar bets by USD 13 billion, the largest one-week reduction in six years, leaving the overall net long at a still-elevated USD 37.3 billion.

As highlighted in the table, dollar selling was broad-based but dominated by a 72% reduction in the yen net short to 45.5k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.6 billion, following USD 9.4 billion of net buying during the week. All other currencies except CAD also saw net buying, with the euro net short reduced by 20% to 58.1k contracts, or USD 8.4 billion. Despite the sizeable adjustment, positioning remained distinctly dollar bullish, with speculators maintaining net short positions across all tracked currencies except the Mexican peso.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

A mixed week across commodity sectors saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index fall 1.2% during the reporting week to 4 August, as weakness in energy and grains was only partly offset by strength in precious and industrial metals and soft commodities. Hedge funds responded to these developments by cutting length in energy, most notably Brent and natural gas, as well as grains led by soybeans and wheat, while increasing demand for all metals and some softs.

Energy positioning continues to highlight relatively subdued conviction in higher prices despite multiple war-related disruptions to supplies from Russia and the Middle East. In contrast, precious metals saw renewed buying, while copper length reached a multi-year high.

Precious metals attract renewed buying
Hedge funds increased exposure to precious metals even before the technical breakout in gold that occurred after the reporting period. The renewed buying comes amid continued strong underlying demand. The World Gold Council reported a fivefold increase in central bank purchases in Q2 compared with Q1, while robust physical demand from China remains another important pillar of support.

The resilience of official-sector and Asian demand echoes 2022–23, when aggressive central bank rate hikes failed to trigger the deep and prolonged gold correction many Western investors had anticipated. It also highlights a continued divergence between East and West. While central banks and Asian investors accumulate gold, many Western asset managers have remained cautious amid elevated bond yields and funding costs.

Looking ahead, mounting fiscal debt concerns, a softer dollar, continued central bank demand and growing speculation that the Fed under Kevin Warsh may refrain from further rate hikes in our opinion all support a constructive medium-term outlook. A recovery in Western investment demand, combined with sustained official-sector and Asian buying, could provide the catalyst for the next leg higher. After months of sideways trading, focus has shifted to whether gold can sustain its breakout. Support at USD 4,200 is key and in our opinion needs to hold in order for the breakout to hold, while a break above USD 4,383 may pave the way for a move towards the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500.

Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Key positioning changes:

Crude oil: Renewed price weakness drove a 25k reduction in the combined crude net long to 266k contracts, following 171k of net buying during the previous three weeks. Despite persistent geopolitical supply risks, positioning continues to signal limited conviction in a sustained price rally.

Natural gas: The net short reached a 27-month high at 89k contracts as ample supply and inventories well above seasonal averages continued to weigh on prices.

Gold: Ahead of Wednesday’s technical upside break, managed money accounts had already lifted their net long to a January high of 132k contracts. Short covering played a significant role, with gross shorts slashed by 42% to a 19-month low of just 9.4k contracts.

Silver and platinum: The silver net long jumped 32% to a still relatively subdued 11k contracts as fresh longs were added, while platinum length surged 71% to a two-month high of 10.9k contracts.

Copper: A 4.5% rally during the reporting week, which subsequently extended to a record high, helped lift the net long to a 5½-year high of 77.8k contracts. The market is increasingly caught between the US, where imports continue to surge as traders capture tariff-related arbitrage opportunities, and China, where demand for imported refined copper is accelerating amid constraints on mined supply and scrap availability.

Grains: Except for corn, the sector saw broad selling, although the combined 73k reduction was relatively modest compared with the 542k contracts speculators had added during the previous five weeks. Most notable was a sharp increase in the CBOT wheat net short following the late-July price slump, despite ongoing concerns about Black Sea shipping disruptions and the reliability of exports from Russia and Ukraine.

Sugar: Ahead of the near-10% surge since last Tuesday, hedge funds had already cut their net short by 31% during a reporting week in which prices rose 3.4% - a warm-up for the rally that followed. Prices are being supported by disappointing Brazilian production prospects, tightening availability in India, where stocks have reportedly entered the new season near a 30-year low, and rising El Niño-related supply risks. Together, these developments have forced an increasingly uncomfortable short position to be covered.

Elsewhere: The cotton net long reached a 16-month high, while six consecutive weeks of net selling cut the live cattle net long to a 22-month low.

Energy sector - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Gold, silver, platinum and copper - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Agriculture - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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17 July 2026: Commodities weekly war weather and backwardation drive returns 16 July 2026: Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide 15 July 2026: Is gold beginning to look beyond inflation 14 July 2026: Gulf tensions and short covering drive energy higher amid renewed supply shock fears 13 July 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 7 July 2026 10 July 2026: Commodities stabilise supported by fuel and weather risks 8 July 2026: Oil jumps as fragile Iran ceasefire unravels 7 July 2026: COT update Elevated dollar and rate bets build as commodity selling eases 6 July 2026: From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor 3 July 2026: Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets 2 July 2026: Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return 1 July 2026: Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes 30 June 2026: Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip 29 June 2026: COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves 26 June 2026: Commodities weekly June reset as peace hopes hawkish Fed and fund liquidation hit crowded longs 25 June 2026: Gold and silver slide as dollar strength fuels another round of liquidation 24 June 2026: Oil prices reset as stranded Gulf barrels head for market 23 June 2026: Metals struggle as markets price peak hawkishness not peak demand 18 June 2026: Weather risk returns as El Nino threatens crops grids and mines 17 June 2026: Precious metals steady as oil-driven inflation fears fade 16 June 2026: Oil retreats as peace hopes rise but depleted inventories may limit the downside 15 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 9 June 12 June 2026: Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace 9 June 2026: Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite 8 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026 4 June 2026: Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight 1 June 2026: Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus 1 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026 29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine 22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm 21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply 19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support 18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026 13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand 12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal 11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

17 July 2026: Commodities weekly war weather and backwardation drive returns
16 July 2026: Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide
15 July 2026: Is gold beginning to look beyond inflation
14 July 2026: Gulf tensions and short covering drive energy higher amid renewed supply shock fears
13 July 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 7 July 2026
10 July 2026: Commodities stabilise supported by fuel and weather risks
8 July 2026: Oil jumps as fragile Iran ceasefire unravels
7 July 2026: COT update Elevated dollar and rate bets build as commodity selling eases
6 July 2026: From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor
3 July 2026: Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets
2 July 2026: Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return
1 July 2026: Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes
30 June 2026: Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip
29 June 2026: COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves
26 June 2026: Commodities weekly June reset as peace hopes hawkish Fed and fund liquidation hit crowded longs
25 June 2026: Gold and silver slide as dollar strength fuels another round of liquidation
24 June 2026: Oil prices reset as stranded Gulf barrels head for market
23 June 2026: Metals struggle as markets price peak hawkishness not peak demand
18 June 2026: Weather risk returns as El Nino threatens crops grids and mines
17 June 2026: Precious metals steady as oil-driven inflation fears fade
16 June 2026: Oil retreats as peace hopes rise but depleted inventories may limit the downside
15 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 9 June
12 June 2026: Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace
9 June 2026: Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite
8 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026
4 June 2026: Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight
1 June 2026: Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus
1 June 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026
29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine
22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm
21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply
19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support
18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026
13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand
12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal
11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

Space earnings preview: can Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile turn orbit into a business?

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile test two routes to commercial space: integrated infrastructure and satellite connectivity.
Execution now matters more than proof of concept. Investors need manufacturing, launch cadence and customer conversion.
The space economy is shifting towards recurring services, where utilisation, margins and cash matter more than spectacular hardware.

Space has spent years proving the physics. Now it needs to prove the economics.

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both report second-quarter updates on 10 August 2026. They sit at different points in the space economy, but face the same question: can impressive engineering become a repeatable business?

Rocket Lab wants the whole stack

Rocket Lab launches rockets, builds satellites and components, and operates missions for customers.

First-quarter revenue reached a record USD 200 million, backlog exceeded USD 2.2 billion and its contracted launch manifest topped 70 missions. On 4 August, it also won a USD 397 million US Space Force contract covering satellites, launch and operations.

The proposed USD 8 billion acquisition of Iridium pushes the model further. Iridium brings an operating communications network and more than 2.5 million subscribers. If completed, Rocket Lab would add something rockets alone cannot provide: recurring communications revenue.

The question is whether vertical integration improves economics or simply creates more things to fund. Watch Space Systems profitability, backlog conversion, launch cadence and progress on Neutron, its larger rocket still targeted for a debut later in 2026.

AST needs the factory to catch up

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network designed to deliver broadband directly to ordinary mobile phones through existing mobile operators.

BlueBirds 8 to 10 launched on 17 June, followed by BlueBirds 11 to 13 on 5 August. AST still targets roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. With 13 BlueBird satellites now launched, the remaining schedule is demanding.

That makes earnings per share almost beside the point. The useful numbers are operational: satellites completed, launch cadence, cost per satellite and cash consumed.

Investors should also listen for the timing of commercial service and whether operator partnerships begin producing meaningful revenue. AST had nearly 60 mobile-network partners at its first-quarter update. Those operators already own the customer relationship. AST does not need to build the distribution network, but it does need enough satellites to make the service reliable.

From missions to infrastructure

SpaceX offers the clearest template. Launch is valuable, but it also supports Starlink, a connectivity service built on satellites that SpaceX can manufacture and launch itself. Rocket Lab is moving towards a broader version of that model. AST starts with connectivity and uses telecom operators for distribution.

For investors, the space economy is therefore becoming less about selling individual missions and more about building infrastructure.

That shifts attention towards fairly boring measures such as utilisation, manufacturing costs, recurring customers, margins and cash generation. Boring is often what happens when an industry starts becoming real. For a broader view, our space economy shortlist highlights companies across launch, satellites, communications and aerospace infrastructure that could benefit as space becomes a more commercial industry.

Risks

Execution remains the obvious risk. Delayed rockets, slower satellite production or launch bottlenecks can push revenue further away. Financing also matters because both models require heavy spending before their full economics are proven. Repeated schedule slips, rising cash needs or commercial-service dates moving further out would be useful warning signs.

Investor playbook

Separate technical milestones from economic milestones. A launch matters more when it unlocks paying customers.
Track cadence, not isolated events. Repetition shows whether operations are becoming industrial.
Watch funding alongside growth. Expansion matters less if cash requirements rise even faster.
Compare business models. Recurring services help only when infrastructure is reliable and well used.

Now the business model has to land

Launches make headlines. Businesses need repeat customers. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are now being tested on that second part. Rocket Lab must show that launch, manufacturing and communications can reinforce each other economically. AST must show that satellite production can move fast enough for telecom partnerships to become a working network.

Neither story depends on one quarter, and both remain capital intensive. But the direction is clearer. As space matures, investors may spend less time asking whether the technology can reach orbit and more time asking whether customers will pay repeatedly once it gets there. The rockets still need to land. Increasingly, so does the business model.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings

The FX Trader: Tepid reaction to soft US jobs data. US CPI up next.

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Volatility is hard to come by, which also keeps JPY lower.

The latest

A soft US July non-farm payrolls report Friday confirmed other weak numbers, but the Household Survey confused as the US unemployment rate dropped. Friday’s payrolls numbers were ugly indeed, as we got a -23k drop in payrolls versus +80k expected and the net revision of the prior two months of data was worse still at -107k. This largely confirmed the soft ADP number from earlier in the week and the suddenly sub-50 July ISM Services Employment Index. But the Household Survey used to compile the unemployment rate confused slightly, as the rate dropped to 4.1% versus the expectation for an unchanged reading of 4.2%. But that was partially explained by another 0.1% drop in the participation rate, which has been plummeting this year, though a significant chunk of the decline was due to a one-off statistical methodology adjustment. Evidence suggests that most of the drop-off is due to less labor force participation among 55+ workers, so the old “discouraged workers” explanation doesn’t really hold It is likely mostly due, therefore, to bulge of boomers in the demographic profile that are leaving the workforce Still, it is remarkable that, if we ignore the pandemic-impacted 2020-21 calendar years, we now have the lowest total labor force participation rate since the 1970’s, which is the decade that saw the largest acceleration in women entering the labor market.

Bottom line (s): The recent US dollar move lower was mostly driven by the coordinated intervention in the Japanese yen. This Friday jobs report didn’t meaningfully change the relative yield spreads between the US and global peers, so there is little for currency traders to go on here until we get more significant data surprises (Wednesday’s US CPI release is the most important next data point) or more forceful policy moves from the BoJ and Takaichi government, in the case of Japan (see below).

The JPY doesn’t want to stay up. Friday showed us that the JPY is a very tough currency to strengthen, as discussed in the look at the EURJPY chart below. One would have thought that Friday’s weak US jobs data was just what the doctor ordered to get the JPY higher, and yet the punch lower in USDJPY to below 157.00 after the data release was completely backfilled and here we are today with USDJPY and other JPY crosses near or at local highs. I am still constructive on the Japanese yen, but it could continue to prove tough to turn higher if global yields and risk sentiment don’t turn more consistently lower as well. The US CPI data Wednesday is the next test for JPY crosses and could drive even more JPY weakness in the very short term if it comes in hot.

Chart focus: EURJPY.
Treasury Secretary Bessent’s notice that the US had sold Euros versus the Japanese yen rather than selling USDJPY caught European counterparts by surprise. The US move to sell EURJPY rather than USDJPY was largely symbolic and served two purposes. First, it was a signal that the US is willing to back up Japan’s efforts to strengthen its currency, as coordinated intervention is read by the market as far more impressive than Japan going it alone. Second, the US wanted to avoid suggesting anything about the broader US dollar level (and importantly, therefore, not wanting to spook global holders of US treasuries to lower their exposures to said treasuries or alter their plans to continue buying them in the future.) And yet here we are with EURJPY backing up above 183.00. For the Ichimoku-based picture here, the local resistance might be the cloud area as well as the lagging span line (green) hitting the old price bars, but recent action has shown little respect for cloud levels, so there is very little precision here – but bears need for the 183.00-185.00 zone to provide resistance at some point.

Source: Saxo

RBA Tuesday (tomorrow): no expectations. The RBA meeting this time around should be short on drama after the Q2 CPI tempered expectations for further rate rises from the bank for now, with only around 15 basis points of further policy tightening priced in through the remainder of this calendar year’s RBA meetings.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The yen’s “trending” move from intervention has now been cut more than in half over the last week as we have yet to see a follow-up wave of strength. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc and the US dollar are weak, but conviction is weak here until we have a clearer read on the yen. Gold and silver have impressed with the recent sharp rally, on the other hand.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The Gold and silver rallies are significant and have moved the trend positive – watching for whether these maintain above the former resistance and eventually take on the 200-day moving averages. Note that the oldest trends in the top table of most traded pairs are USDCHF and EURCHF – can these persist if we finally get a follow up wave of JPY strength? The initial JPY blast higher on intervention only triggered a one-day adjustment in CHF crosses lower on the perceived general threat to carry trades

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - Soft payrolls lift stocks as oil edges higher - 10 August 2026

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:04:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A weak July payrolls print reset the Fed debate, inflation data now carries the week
Equities: US and European equities ended at records after weak jobs data, while Asia traded mostly higher as rate fears eased.
Volatility: Equity vol compressed into the payrolls relief while oil and gold vol stayed elevated
Digital Assets: Exchange and treasury names led Friday's advance while spot drifted sideways overnight
Commodities: Gold holds firm after best week since January; Oil rebound stalls
Fixed Income: US yields lower after soft jobs data, but the move was choppy.
Currencies: JPY weaker despite drop in global bond yields Friday. USD quiet after Friday’s sell-off.

Macro

As reported Friday, US non-farm payrolls fell -23k in July versus +80k expected, and data for the previous two months were revised -103k lower, confirming other signs of a weakening labour market. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% versus an unchanged reading of 4.2% expected, but this was seen as partly due to a 0.1% decline in the labour-force participation rate to a new post-pandemic low. Wage growth slowed to 3.2% YoY, reinforcing recent weakness in ISM services employment and ADP payrolls. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s CPI report after the jobs report knocked lowered rate hike expectations, and how markets respond to an expected drop in the core to the lowest y/y reading since March 2021
Iran ruled out direct talks with the US, citing violations of the interim peace pact, while saying a deal with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was “very close”. Tehran continues to demand an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and compensation before fully reopening the Strait, while Trump said Washington would likely wait for mounting economic pressure to soften Iran’s stance.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signalling a desire to contain long-term yields after they surged to a 19-year high, with recent currency intervention and changes to Treasury’s bond-sale guidance possible reducing long-end supply suggesting growing concern about rising borrowing costs amid persistent inflation and nearly USD 2 trillion annual budget deficits.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Norway Jul. CPI
0130 (Tuesday) – Australia NAB Business survey
0430 (Tuesday) Australia RBA Cash Target Announcement

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Monday: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile
Tuesday: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2% on Friday, after July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 and reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate increase. Atlassian surged 35.3% after beating quarterly expectations and guiding revenue above forecasts, Airbnb jumped 17.4% after a revenue beat, while Trade Desk sank 21.9% after guiding third-quarter revenue below expectations. Investors now turn to Wednesday’s July inflation report for the next major signal on rates.
Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.3% to a record, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2% and the FTSE 100 advanced 0.3%, as upbeat earnings and softer US jobs data extended the rally. Technology led the region, while Genmab climbed 6.5% after raising its full-year outlook and Kingspan surged 17.8% after lifting its profit forecast on strong data-centre demand, Munich Re fell 1.4% despite higher quarterly profit. Markets now watch renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and this week’s US inflation data.
Asia: Japan’s Nikkei traded 2.0% higher and South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.6%, while China’s CSI 300 fell 0.7% as the region followed Friday’s Wall Street rally unevenly. Japanese and Korean technology shares led the rebound as the weak US jobs report reduced fears of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, while Chinese equities lagged after July consumer and producer inflation came in below forecasts, highlighting soft domestic demand. Higher oil prices limited some of the enthusiasm as investors continued to monitor uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

After Friday's soft payrolls print, equity volatility compressed across the front end. Friday's cash close left VIX at 14.90, VIX1D down 9.5% to 11.36 and VIX9D down 5.5% to 11.96. VVIX firmed to 90.42, while three-month implied correlation rose 11.4% off a very low base.
The cash curve sits in steep contango to VIX3M 18.72, with SKEW normal at 132.57 and MOVE down 5.4% to 72.03. Commodity vol remains the outlier: GVZ 25.64, OVX 55.80, still 3.7 times VIX. SPXW prices 40 points (0.52%) today and 91 points (1.17%) into Friday, with Wednesday's CPI the catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,940 +0.14% | ETHEREUM ~1,917 +0.40% | IBIT 36.80 +0.85% | ETHA 14.47 +0.49% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Crypto equities carried Friday's session while spot has drifted sideways since. Softer US jobs data and the resulting retreat in rate-hike odds framed the move. Coinbase rose 5.6%, Circle 5.4% and Strategy 3.3%, and Iren added 8.7%, but pure miners diverged: Cipher fell 5.7%, Marathon 5.3% and CleanSpark 3.5%.
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $1 billion last week, their strongest since April and third-best since October. The rebound followed a $116 million exploit of a hardware wallet, cited as a possible contributing factor.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has started August slightly higher, with a rotation out of energy more than offset by renewed demand for metals, particularly precious metals following last week’s weak US jobs report and gold’s technical breakout. Agriculture is also contributing positively, led by strength across soft commodities, notably sugar and cocoa. Overall, the index, which tracks 25 major commodities, is up 23.4% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500 and trailing only the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.
Gold trades higher after surging 7.3% last week, its best weekly performance since January. The rally was supported by weaker US economic data reducing the risk of near-term rate hikes, mounting US fiscal debt concerns, a softer dollar and continued demand from central banks and Asian investors. After months of sideways trading, focus has shifted to whether gold can sustain its breakout. Support at USD 4,200 is key in our opionion, while a break above USD 4,383 may pave the way for a move towards the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500.
Oil trades near unchanged, with traders showing limited appetite for another push higher as Iran and Oman remain short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi militants claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea. The risk of renewed Middle East escalation remains elevated, but the muted price response highlights competing headwinds from weak Chinese demand and the release of emergency reserves.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries first rallied in the wake of the weak US jobs report on Friday, but some of the reaction was erased later in the session. The front end of the US yield curve stuck more significantly lower as the market lowered the expectations of Fed policy tightening. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell about four basis points, ending the week at 4.205% after having dipped as low as 4.15% briefly after the release of the jobs report. The benchmark 10-year yield fell three basis points and is trading near 4.65% early Monday. The odds of a 25-basis point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting fell below 50%.
Japan’s government bond yields hit a new multi-decade high Monday after the Bank of Japan released its Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 meeting, which said that inflation may pick up, and with one member saying that the pace of rate hikes may need to accelerate. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield nearly traded as high as 1.63% early Monday before rolling back below 1.62%, where it closed on Friday.

Currencies

The JPY remained weak despite the drop in US yields on Friday and the BoJ Summary of Opinions sounding more hawkish and briefly driving Japan’s short-dated yields higher early Monday. USDJPY traded early Monday near 158.40 and up 0.4% from Friday’s close after the sharp dip below 157.00 on Friday in the knee-jerk reaction to the US jobs report. EURJPY traded at new highs for the week just below 183.00 by early Monday, up 0.3% from Friday’s close.
The US dollar was largely directionless in early trading Monday after falling sharply on Friday in reaction to the soft US jobs data. EURUSD continued to consolidate from its Friday high of 1.1581, trading 1.1550 early Monday.
The Australian dollar is trading sideways ahead of the RBA decision Tuesday, with the market looking for the bank to hold its fire on further rate increases for now after a soft CPI number for Q2.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Oil shouts, payrolls whispers - Options Brief - 7 August 2026

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Crude jumped, oil volatility jumped harder, and the S&P 500 barely moved. Ahead of the July jobs report, the options market is charging remarkably little to sit through it.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 15.15 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (134.73) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.30

A second down session, and crude did the driving. The S&P 500 fell 0.18% to 7,709.96 and the Dow lost 0.85% to 53,885.10 as Brent extended a two-day rebound to $83.46, while soft memory forecasts took the DRAM index down 4.28%.
VIX1D was the only volatility measure on the board to rise. It added 3.55% to 12.55 on a day when VIX fell 4.17% to 15.15 and VIX9D dropped 8.19%. Even after that rise it still sits below both.
Oil volatility took what equity volatility gave up. OVX jumped 11.38% to 57.34 and its ratio to VIX rose 16.24% to 3.79, the largest single move anywhere on the volatility board.

Headline driver

Renewed doubts over a Strait of Hormuz settlement pushed Brent back above $83 and knocked equities lower for a second session, leaving the July employment report at 14:30 CET as the week’s decisive number. Further macro detail sits in Saxo’s daily macro coverage.

Market snapshot

US (Thursday 6 August close): S&P 500 -0.18% to 7,709.96, Dow -0.85% to 53,885.10, Nasdaq 100 -0.39% to 29,373.33. Sandisk and Western Digital both sank on underwhelming forecasts and Fiserv slumped after cutting full-year guidance, while Hertz jumped 29% on earnings, Microsoft rose 2.54% as the standout large cap and Alphabet fell 1.29% ahead of a $25 billion bond sale. After hours, Airbnb added roughly 8% and AppLovin fell about 18%.
Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.39% to 6,502.57, Stoxx 600 +0.16% to 658.20, DAX +0.05% to 26,140.13 and the CAC 40 +0.35% to 8,699.71. Banks firmed, the SX7E up 0.50%, while Belgium’s BEL 20 fell 0.27%.
Asia (Friday session, in progress): South Korea led the decline, the Kospi down 1.47% to 6,203.61 and the US-listed Korea ETF off 2.97%, tracking the overnight memory selloff. China went the other way, the CSI 300 +0.83% to 4,689.96 and the Hang Seng +0.15%. OCBC’s second-quarter profit rose 22% to S$2.2 billion and UOB’s 10% to S$1.48 billion, both ahead of consensus.
Commodities and rates: Brent +1.18% to $83.46 and WTI +0.98% to $78.05, extending Thursday’s rebound, though crude is still down roughly 5% on the week. Gold futures +0.60% to $4,325.50 after Wednesday’s 4.1% jump, silver +1.59%, and copper +0.57%, near a record after the Democratic Republic of Congo halted concentrate exports. The US 10-year yield sat at 4.682% and the 30-year at 5.230%.
Market regime: Low-volatility bull, VIX 15.2, 20-day realised volatility 13.9% (stable to falling), S&P 500 +2.94% above its 50-day moving average.

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 7 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 6 August. This describes yesterday’s positioning, not how markets are trading today.

Single-name flow Puts took 59.1% of confirmed opening premium across the mega-caps, but almost all of it sat in deep in-the-money Tesla and Apple lines crossed at mid, which is the signature of financing and roll mechanics rather than downside conviction. In our assessment, the one cleanly directional package was a large Microsoft September upside call position, while Nvidia’s tape ran explicitly two-sided into its late-August results.
Sector and ETF flow On the broad index tape, puts carried 78.1% of premium with the same deep in-the-money, mid-market shape, and where an aggressor side was visible at all it leaned toward premium selling rather than protection buying. Metals were the exception and the only high-conviction read of the session, with two flagged opening gold structures both leaning long. Defensive and biotech ETF tapes were close to empty.

Volatility surface – 7 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX 15.15 (-4.17%), a fourth straight session in the mid-teens.
VIX1D 12.55 (+3.55%), the only measure on the board to rise.
VIX9D 12.66 (-8.19%), now barely above the one-day measure.
VIX3M 18.69 · VIX6M 20.91 · VIX1Y 22.56, an upward-sloping curve throughout.

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 17.30 (+1.20%), a 2.15 point premium to spot, up from 1.82 the prior session.
Second-month VIX futures 18.65 (+0.59%), keeping the curve in contango.

Skew & correlation

CBOE SKEW 134.73 (+1.06% from 133.32), holding in the normal zone.
COR3M 9.41 (+0.86%), still near the low end of its recent range.
DSPX 38.70 (-4.56%), a second consecutive decline.

Other volatility measures

VVIX 88.72 (-1.89%) · MOVE 76.12 (+3.45%).
VXN 23.95 (-0.83%), at 1.58 times spot VIX.
GVZ 24.86 (-2.85%), easing as gold consolidated, against OVX 57.34 (+11.38%).

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 7 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

Today’s payrolls session is priced barely above an ordinary one. SPXW options imply a 44.8-point (0.581%) move for today’s expiry, against the 43 points (0.56%) quoted for yesterday’s same-day expiry in the previous edition. Both are derived from at-the-money option pricing on the same chain at the same tenor, so the gap approximates the event premium alone: roughly 13 index points, about 0.17%. In our view, that may point to a market treating the jobs report as a scheduled data point rather than a binary risk.
VIX1D rose while everything else fell, which is what event premium looks like. VIX1D gained 3.55% on a board where VIX fell 4.17%, VIX9D 8.19% and VXN 0.83%. Its ratio to spot VIX moved from 0.767 to 0.828 in a single session. In our assessment, that isolated lift may show premium landing on the day the data lands and nowhere else along the curve.
The futures curve is not following the front end down. Spot VIX gave up 0.66 points while front-month VIX futures added 0.205 to 17.30, widening the futures premium to spot from 1.82 points to 2.15, with the second month at 18.65. In our view, a market letting near-dated volatility decay while paying up for September may be pricing this calm as temporary rather than structural.
Volatility keeps changing address. OVX rose 11.38% and MOVE added 3.45% to 76.12 while every equity gauge fell. DSPX dropped 4.56% to 38.70 and COR3M sat at 9.41, both near the low end of their recent ranges. In our assessment, that mix may describe a market pricing commodity and rate risk while index risk stays quiet, rather than one shared macro factor moving everything together.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

Today’s catalysts

14:30 CET – US July employment report. Nonfarm payrolls, consensus around +80,000 after June’s +57,000; unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.2%; average hourly earnings expected at 3.5% year on year and +0.3% on the month.
Earnings. OCBC and UOB reported in Asia; Cisco and Applied Materials are also on the calendar.
Ahead: July CPI on 12 August and PPI on 13 August, both inside the 14 August expiry.

Why the jobs report lifts short-dated volatility, and why it barely did this time

Three numbers land together at 14:30 CET: nonfarm payrolls, consensus around +80,000 after June’s +57,000; the unemployment rate, seen unchanged at 4.2%; and average hourly earnings, expected at 3.5% year on year and +0.3% on the month.

The mechanism is arithmetic. Variance adds up over time, so an option covering a window that contains a scheduled release prices ordinary day-to-day movement plus whatever jump the release can cause. The ordinary part scales with the length of the window, the jump does not. A same-day option therefore carries the whole jump against a single session of normal drift, which is why event premium concentrates at the very front of the curve and fades quickly behind it. Today that shows up as VIX1D rising while every longer measure falls.

The size of the lift is the surprise. Stripping the ordinary component out of today’s 0.581% implied move using yesterday’s 0.56% same-day reading leaves about 13 index points, roughly 0.17%, as the incremental payrolls premium. That is a modest charge for the month’s most-watched release, and yesterday’s session carried its own minor data, so the true premium may be slightly larger.

Three prints have likely narrowed the plausible range in advance: Wednesday’s ADP at 44,000 against a 70,000 forecast, initial claims at 199,000 near a 57-year low, and second-quarter unit labour costs up just 1.3% against a 2.1% forecast. With press reporting suggesting Fed Chair Warsh is ready to raise rates in September, average hourly earnings arguably carries more weight than the payrolls headline, and the labour-cost data has already taken some heat out of it. The 14 August expiry, spanning today’s report plus CPI on 12 August and PPI on 13 August, prices 103.2 points (1.337%) on the same at-the-money derivation, so in our assessment the market may be reserving its attention for next week’s inflation prints.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

Conclusion

In our view, today’s setup may be less about which way the payrolls print lands than about how little the options market is charging to sit through it. Premium has been added at exactly one point on the curve, and even there the lift measures around 13 index points against an index near its record.

In our assessment, a market that prices a scheduled labour release at close to a normal session while paying up for oil and rate volatility may be saying its attention is elsewhere, with next week’s inflation data the likelier test.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

The author holds no positions in the instruments mentioned at the time of writing. This content is for educational purposes only. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.

This is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risk.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

US hitting two supply chain birds with one policy stone.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

AI is rewriting the software bill: what earnings say about SaaS disruption

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI threatens software built around simple tasks and seat counts, but can strengthen platforms tied to critical workflows and proprietary data.
Recent earnings show monetisation matters: HubSpot is changing pricing, while ServiceNow, SAP and Atlassian still show strong AI-linked demand.
Investors can track retention, pricing and workflow depth rather than treating the entire software sector as one disrupted trade.

Software-as-a-service (SaaS), cloud software sold by subscription, has spent much of 2026 under a simple fear: if artificial intelligence (AI) agents do more work, companies may need fewer human users and therefore fewer licences. But the risk is more nuanced than “AI kills software”. The real shift is in what customers are willing to pay for. Value is moving away from features and seat counts, towards outcomes, proprietary data, embedded workflows and transactions.

The seat is getting nervous

For years, SaaS had a convenient growth engine. A customer hired more people, bought more seats and paid more subscription fees. AI challenges that formula because fewer employees, supported by agents, may handle the same workload.

HubSpot is a useful case study. The customer-management platform grew second-quarter revenue 20%, yet slightly lowered its full-year outlook. Management said it was deliberately changing its products, pricing and sales model to make AI easier to adopt.

That can help adoption while delaying revenue. The old question was “how many seats?” The new one is increasingly “how much valuable work runs through the platform?”

Atlassian is preparing for that shift. Its new Flex model lets large customers commit to a fixed budget but move spending between seats, applications and AI usage. Salesforce is also reporting “agentic work units” alongside rapid Agentforce adoption. The billing unit itself is starting to evolve.

Workflow is the new moat

AI can recreate a feature surprisingly quickly. Recreating years of company data, integrations, permissions and workflows is harder.

That matters for ServiceNow, SAP, Workday and Salesforce. These companies sit inside important processes such as information technology, finance, human resources and customer management. Replacing them is less like swapping an app and more like rewiring an office building.

Recent earnings suggest these platforms still have leverage. ServiceNow grew subscription revenue by about a quarter and said its AI products crossed USD 1 billion in annual contract value. SAP reported 26% constant-currency growth in current cloud backlog. Workday continued to grow subscriptions while raising its margin outlook.

Adobe and Intuit offer similar evidence. Adobe said AI-first annual recurring revenue more than tripled and raised its full-year targets in June. Intuit raised its full-year revenue guidance after its May results.

None of this makes incumbents immune. It suggests that proprietary data and embedded workflows can make AI a reason to use the platform more, rather than remove it.

AI can enlarge the market too

Shopify and AppLovin sit slightly outside traditional SaaS, but they help define the boundaries.

Shopify earns from subscriptions, payments and merchant activity. Second-quarter revenue grew 34%, while AI-driven traffic and orders to merchants tripled. If AI helps shoppers discover and buy more products, Shopify can benefit even if the traditional software interface matters less.

AppLovin shows another risk. Its advertising engine depends heavily on AI model quality. Revenue still grew more than 50%, but results fell slightly short of expectations and progress on a new model slowed. When AI itself is the advantage, model execution becomes a business risk.

The distinction matters. AI can disrupt the interface while strengthening the underlying platform.

Where disruption can bite

The highest risk sits with software that solves narrow tasks, owns little unique data and is easy to replace. Warning signs include weaker customer growth, falling revenue per customer and heavier discounting.

A second risk is pricing. Moving from seats to usage or outcomes can improve long-term economics, but the transition may look messy. Investors can watch whether AI revenue grows without steadily weakening margins or cash generation.

The third is competition. AI makes it cheaper and faster to build software, so customers may have more alternatives. Incumbents need their data, distribution and integration advantages to remain valuable.

Investor playbook

Separate systems running critical workflows from tools that mainly add convenient features.
Track retention, revenue per customer and AI usage, not simply the number of AI launches.
Watch pricing changes. Flexible models can expand adoption, but they must eventually support healthy economics.
Diversify across business models rather than treating one software company as the entire AI disruption story.

The moat matters more than the model

AI is not cancelling SaaS. It is cancelling the assumption that adding seats automatically creates durable growth. This earnings season shows a more selective contest. Platforms with deep workflows, trusted data and strong distribution can use AI to become more useful. Simpler tools may have to defend why they exist at all.

The strongest signal is therefore not how often management says “AI”, a metric that remains conveniently unlimited. It is what customers do next: renew, expand, automate more work and pay for measurable outcomes. That is also the useful way to view Saxo’s software shortlist. These companies face the same technological wave, but very different economics. AI will not treat them equally, and neither should investors.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence

Market Quick Take - Hormuz doubts lift oil as payrolls loom - 7 August 2026

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:01:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Polysilicon tariffs and Hormuz uncertainty dominate as payrolls take over the session's direction
Equities: US stocks slipped, Europe reached another record, while Asian markets traded cautiously ahead of US payrolls.
Volatility: Equity vol kept compressing while oil vol jumped, payrolls now the session's single catalyst
Digital Assets: Crypto equities and miners led losses while spot held, corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions
Commodities: Hormuz doubts kept crude bid, gold consolidated its breakout and copper neared a record
Fixed Income: Yields rose globally on oil, hawkish Fed reporting and heavy corporate bond supply
Currencies: A firmer dollar broke the yen above its 200-day average ahead of US payrolls

Macro

The Trump administration imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products used in semiconductors and solar panels under Section 232, aiming to shield US producers from Chinese competition in the chip supply chain.
Strait of Hormuz tensions resurfaced. Iran said it struck "hostile targets" near Qeshm Island, while a draft Iran-Oman deal would bar US and Israeli ships, require compensation from countries it considers hostile, and impose cargo-based penalties, with full reopening conditioned on lifting the US maritime blockade.
US initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 199,000, below the 202,000 forecast and near a 57-year low, a third consecutive week under 200,000. Continuing claims increased 24,000 to 1.801 million.
US nonfarm unit labour costs rose 1.3% in Q2, matching Q1 but well below the 2.1% forecast, as compensation rose 2.7% and productivity 1.4%. The combination leaves inflation, not employment, as the swing variable for September.
Japan's household spending fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, a seventh straight decline and the steepest, against expectations for a 1.0% rise. Month-on-month spending dropped 6.4%, the sharpest since January 2021.
Euro area retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, reversing most of May's gain and missing the 0.1% rise expected. Annual growth of 0.7% was the weakest since July 2024.
July payrolls land at 14:30 CET, consensus +80,000 after June's +57,000, with unemployment seen unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 3.5% year-on-year.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

None today

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Thursday (yesterday): Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software
Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway

Next week

Monday: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile
Tuesday: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow Jones lost 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4% on Thursday as rising oil prices and mixed earnings pulled stocks back from record territory. Western Digital dropped 13.0% and Sandisk fell 6.8% after strong results failed to clear already high expectations, while AppLovin sank 19.7% after quarterly revenue missed estimates. SpaceX gained 6.1% as a large lockup expiry passed without the wave of insider selling investors had feared. Attention turned to Friday’s payrolls report, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate move.
Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to a third straight record close, while the Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%, as earnings strength outweighed Middle East uncertainty. WPP surged 28.6% after beating organic growth expectations, and Deutsche Telekom climbed 6.3% after expanding its 2026 share buyback plan. Siemens fell 4.5% as its Digital Industries business missed expectations, while Rheinmetall lost 3.5% after cutting its 2026 sales outlook. Investors next watched US payrolls for clues on rates and the broader risk mood.
Asia: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 1% on Friday, while China’s CSI 300 gained 0.2% and broader Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were flat, as investors waited for US payrolls and tracked another rise in oil prices. Singapore banks were in focus after OCBC reported a 22% rise in second-quarter profit to a record S$2.2 billion, while UOB posted a 10% increase to S$1.48 billion; both results were helped by stronger wealth-management fees. OCBC raised its interim dividend to S$0.47 and UOB declared S$0.88, keeping capital returns in focus.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Renewed Strait of Hormuz doubts pushed Brent higher and knocked equities lower for a second session, yet equity volatility kept compressing. VIX fell 4.2% to 15.15, VIX9D dropped 8.2% to 12.66 and VVIX eased to 88.72. Only VIX1D firmed, up 3.6% to 12.55, pricing the payrolls print.
The cash curve stayed in contango to VIX3M 18.69, with SKEW normal at 134.73. Cross-asset vol diverged: OVX rose 11.4% to 57.34 and MOVE gained 3.5%. SPXW prices a 44.8-point (0.58%) move today and 103.2 points (1.34%) into 14 August, with July payrolls the catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,233 -0.04% | ETHEREUM ~1,896 -0.32% | IBIT 36.49 -0.68% | ETHA 14.40 -0.55% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Crypto equities carried the weakness while spot held steady. A firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields ahead of payrolls framed the session. Block fell 6.2% and Coinbase 3.0%, with miners broadly lower: CleanSpark down 5.6%, Marathon 5.3% and Cipher 2.7%. Both spot ETFs slipped.
Corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions. Block added 85 bitcoin, lifting holdings to 9,117, weeks after joining the S&P 500. Strategy disclosed a 1,638 bitcoin sale for $104.73 million, its third of 2026, funding dividends and buybacks.

Commodities

Oil: Brent rose 1.18% to $83.46 in the Asian session after a move above $83 in late US hours, extending Thursday's more than 5% surge, while WTI added 0.98% to $78.05 following a 3.3% Thursday gain. The move coincides with the absence of a durable Strait of Hormuz agreement and Iranian reports of strikes on hostile targets, both cited as contributing factors. Despite the two-day rebound, crude remains down roughly 5% on the week, having sold off earlier on expectations of a US-Iran accord. Energy equities followed the move, with the energy sector ETF up 1.48% and oil and gas exploration up 1.13%, while natural gas eased 0.42% to $2.629. Oil implied volatility repriced sharply, with OVX up 11.4%.
Metals: Gold futures rose 0.60% to $4,325.50 with spot around $4,261.85, consolidating a 4.1% single-day gain in the prior session that was the largest since February and leaves the metal up more than 5% in August. The advance has been attributed to a technical breakout alongside continued central bank and institutional demand. Silver outperformed, up 1.59% to $62.585, compressing the gold-silver ratio to 69.1. Precious-metals volatility cooled even as prices rose, with GVZ down 2.85% and silver vol down 3.08%.
Industrial metals: Copper rose 0.57% to $6.7470 on Comex and traded near a record on the LME, up as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 per tonne, after the Democratic Republic of Congo halted exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. Analysts noted the ban captures only a modest share of Congolese exports, but it adds to a tightening supply narrative at a time when US copper imports are running at their highest monthly volume in at least 12 years.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasury yield rebounded sharply Thursday as crude oil prices did likewise, with considerable focus on the July US jobs report after soft ADP private payrolls and ISM Services Employment survey sub-index numbers earlier this week. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield has rebounded to 4.25% after trading as low as 4.18% mid-week, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield trades at 4.68%, up eight basis points from its Thursday lows.
Core European and Asia-Pacific bonds sold off in sympathy with US treasuries. Germany's 10-year advanced three basis points to 3.14% and the UK's rose five to 4.94%, while Japan's 10-year added two basis points to 2.785% and Australia's jumped nine to 5.01%.
The "sell America" debate intensified, with global investors questioning the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility under Warsh. JPMorgan lifted its year-end 10- and 30-year yield forecasts and pushed back its expectation for larger auctions by six months, citing the Treasury's changed issuance guidance as discomfort with rising yields. Japan's intervention last week adds Treasury repatriation risk, since reserves deployed to support the yen reduce Japanese demand for US paper. Bond volatility firmed, with MOVE up 3.45% to 76.12.

Currencies

The US dollar rebounded slightly ahead of Friday’s US jobs report and as US treasury yields bounced back. USDJPY rose above 158.00 late Thursday for the first time since last week and as high as 158.57 before finding resistance. The range in EURUSD was more muted as it eased slightly lower to the 1.1520 area.
The Swiss franc remains weak after a modest kneejerk strengthening move last week on Japan’s intervention in the Japanese yen, with EURCHF having now rebounded to new highs for 2026, trading as high as 0.9370 before finding resistance. USDCHF rebounded back above 0.8125 after a 0.8060 area low Thursday.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

RIP Victor Niederhoffer

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:37:00 Z

A Wall Street legend has passed.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Chips crack, vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Equity volatility fell right across the board on a session when chips cracked and the Kospi dropped more than four percent. Gold volatility went the other way. The question is which one is mispriced.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 15.81 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (133.32) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.63

Records without the tech. The Dow closed at a record 54,349.12 (+0.49%) while the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,723.55 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83%, as AMD dropped 7% and SanDisk fell 8%, both after beating estimates.
Equity volatility fell across the whole board. VIX -4.2% to 15.81, VIX1D -12.6%, VIX9D -8.3%, VXN -5.2% and MOVE -5.1%, even as Asia’s chip complex sold off hard on Thursday with the Kospi down about 4.4%.
Metals took the volatility instead. Gold jumped 4.1% on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 3 February, copper set a record, and gold volatility (GVZ) rose 8.9% to 25.59, the largest single move on the volatility board.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 6 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Iran and Oman agreed overnight to a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, while a soft ADP print of 44,000 against a 70,000 forecast left Friday’s payrolls as the week’s decisive number. Wednesday’s tape split underneath the record close, blue chips up and chips down, and that split widened across Asia on Thursday. Further macro detail sits in Saxo’s daily macro coverage.

Market snapshot, Wednesday 5 August 2026 close

US (Wednesday 5 August close): Dow +0.49% to a record 54,349.12; S&P 500 -0.17% to 7,723.55; Nasdaq Composite -0.83% to 26,363.44. Eli Lilly rose 4.9% on raised guidance and Arista Networks gained 3.6% on a revenue beat, while AMD slid 7% despite doubling data-centre revenue, and SanDisk fell 8% even after beating estimates and guiding higher.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 notched a fresh record close. HSBC fell 4.7% on broker downgrades and a China tax-policy report, Novo Nordisk weighed on the index on soft Wegovy sales, the DAX slipped 0.3% on Infineon’s 5.7% drop, and the FTSE 100 edged up to 10,888 on AstraZeneca (+2.5%) and Next (+5.7%).
Asia (Thursday session, in progress): The chip pullback deepened, with the Kospi down about 4.4%, the Nikkei off 1.4% to 65,363 and the Hang Seng down 1.75%. DBS reported record second-quarter profit and raised its 2026 guidance.
Commodities and rates: WTI extended its slide toward $75, its lowest in almost a month, and Brent held just above $79, taking the week’s decline to roughly 11%. Gold rose 4.1% to near $4,280, silver added more than 4%, and copper set a record, up roughly 18% year to date, ahead of an expected US tariff decision on copper imports. The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.61%.
Volatility complex: VIX 15.81 (-4.2%), VIX1D 12.12 (-12.6%), VIX9D 13.79 (-8.3%). SKEW 133.32 (+5.5%), COR3M 9.33 (-3.2%), DSPX 40.55 (-5.0%). Front-month VIX futures 17.63, in contango to the second month at 18.81. Against that, gold volatility (GVZ) rose 8.9% to 25.59 while oil volatility (OVX) fell 3.7%.
Market regime (rules based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 15.81, 20-day realised volatility 14.1% and falling, S&P 500 +3.18% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 5 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow: Chip-linked names leaned toward premium supply rather than accumulation, with Nvidia’s largest confirmed call lines printing on the bid ahead of its late-August results, a shape closer to overwriting than to fresh upside conviction. Alphabet drew one of the session’s cleanest confirmed put purchases, and crypto-linked miners saw genuine long-dated call accumulation.
Sector and ETF flow: Broad index flow stayed two-sided and did not resolve into a directional lean, while semiconductor ETFs attracted the cleanest confirmed upside buying of the session even as single-name chip flow ran the other way. In our assessment, metals-linked ETF flow carried a hedging shape rather than fresh downside conviction, which may be consistent with a complex that has just repriced sharply higher.

Volatility surface – 6 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 15.81 (-4.18%)
VIX1D 12.12 (-12.55%) · VIX9D 13.79 (-8.31%)
VIX3M 18.95 (-2.02%) · VIX6M 21.06 (-1.36%) · VIX1Y 22.67 (-0.96%), an upward-sloping curve with the front end doing almost all of the easing

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 17.63 (+1.15%), a premium of roughly 1.82 points to spot, up from about 1.35 points the prior session
Second-month VIX futures 18.81 (+0.54%), front-to-second ratio at 0.935, the curve holding contango

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 133.32 (+5.47%), above the 100 to 120 neutral zone but inside its normal recent range
COR3M 9.33 (-3.22%), implied index correlation near multi-month lows
DSPX 40.55 (-4.99%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.747, index put/call 0.955

Cross-asset volatility

OVX 51.48 (-3.69%), oil volatility easing alongside the Hormuz-driven slide in crude
GVZ 25.59 (+8.89%) · VXSLV 48.02 (+1.22%) · MOVE 73.58 (-5.13%)
VXN 24.15 (-5.22%) · RVX 19.38 (-4.86%) · VXD 14.47 (-3.66%) · VVIX 90.43 (-2.31%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

Payrolls premium is running off close to schedule. SPXW options imply a 43-point (0.56%) move for today’s expiry and 64 points (0.83%) into Friday’s jobs report, against the 96 points (1.23%) quoted for that same Friday expiry in yesterday’s edition. These figures are derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Flat-volatility time decay alone would have left roughly 68 points as the window shortened from two sessions to one, so in our view the market may be letting event premium run off broadly on schedule, with only a modest additional easing rather than a re-rating of Friday’s risk. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
The front end did the cooling, the futures curve did not. VIX1D fell 12.6% to 12.12 and VIX9D fell 8.3% to 13.79, while VIX1Y barely moved at 22.67. Spot VIX gave up 0.69 points but front-month VIX futures shed only 0.22, widening the futures premium to spot from roughly 1.35 points to 1.82. In our assessment, that may point to a market treating this week’s calm as immediate rather than durable.
Tail hedges firmed while headline volatility fell. CBOE SKEW rose 5.5% to 133.32 even as VIX fell 4.2%, recovering roughly half of Wednesday’s drop from the elevated 139.96 quoted on Tuesday. In our view, demand for out-of-the-money index puts appears to be firming beneath a calmer at-the-money surface, which reads differently from the headline VIX level on its own. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
Volatility changed address rather than disappeared. Every equity measure on the board fell, VIX, VXN, RVX, VXD and MOVE among them, while gold volatility rose 8.9% and silver volatility added 1.2%. COR3M eased 3.2% to 9.33, near multi-month lows, and DSPX fell 5.0% to 40.55. In our assessment, that combination may describe a market pricing company-specific and commodity risk rather than one shared macro factor, with Nvidia up 3.4% in the same session AMD fell 7% as the clearest illustration.

Today’s catalysts

The US data block lands at 14:30 CET, with weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended 1 August (forecast around 203,000 against 197,000 previously), continuing claims for the week ended 25 July (previously 1.782 million), and preliminary second-quarter non-farm productivity (expected around +0.7% against +0.3%). July Challenger job cuts and final June wholesale inventories also print during the session. Earnings include Molson Coors, Monster Beverage, Warner Bros Discovery and Airbnb in the US, alongside SoftBank Group, Nintendo, Orix and DBS in Asia. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report remains the week’s defining release, and after Wednesday’s soft ADP print it may carry more weight than usual.

Conclusion

In our assessment, Thursday’s setup may reward attention to where volatility actually sits rather than to the headline index level. The S&P 500 is a fraction below its record with spot volatility in the mid-teens, yet gold volatility has jumped, tail-hedge demand has firmed, and the front of the VIX curve has collapsed faster than the futures behind it. In our view, a market pricing calm at the index while individual names and commodities move on their own news may be telling a dispersion story more than a direction story, with Friday’s payrolls the first real test of that read, though outcomes are uncertain and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Rheinmetall earnings: Europe’s defence boom is real, but not every contract survives

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Rheinmetall’s land, ammunition and air-defence businesses remain strong despite the lost frigate contract.
The guidance cut shows defence budgets only become revenue after contracts, approvals and delivery.
Investors should watch cash flow, contract concentration and production execution, not backlog growth alone.

Europe’s defence boom looks like a rising tide, but Rheinmetall’s results show that even a rising tide does not float every warship. On 6 August 2026, Germany’s largest defence company lowered its annual sales outlook after the government cancelled the F126 frigate programme. The operating performance was strong, but much of it had already been released in July. The new information was weaker guidance and another reminder that political ambition is not booked revenue.

The quarter was stronger than the headline

Rheinmetall makes military vehicles, ammunition, air-defence systems and digital equipment. It has also expanded into naval shipbuilding.

First-half sales rose 39% to EUR 5.2 billion, while operating profit increased 74%. Profit grew faster because factories produced more, fixed costs were spread across more units and the product mix improved.

The second quarter was especially strong. Sales rose by nearly 70%, while operating profit reached EUR 562 million, exceeding market expectations compiled by Bloomberg. Vehicles, weapons, ammunition and air defence all expanded.

The operating margin, which shows how much profit remains from each euro of sales before financing and tax, also improved. Growth is less useful when expansion weakens profitability. Rheinmetall showed the opposite.

A large order book is still only a promise

Rheinmetall’s backlog reached EUR 80.5 billion, providing years of potential work. But backlog is a map, not cash in the bank.

Defence orders move through budgets, approvals, design changes and political negotiations. The F126 cancellation is a clear example. The programme involved six large multi-purpose frigates planned for the German Navy, with Rheinmetall expected to play a major role. Germany still plans to spend heavily on defence, but it chose a smaller, less costly naval solution instead.

The muted market reaction suggests investors looked beyond the lower guidance and focused on the strength of the underlying business. Rheinmetall continues to benefit from Europe’s rising demand for defence equipment, but the results also show that converting that demand into contracts, deliveries and cash is rarely a straight line.

The lesson reaches beyond Rheinmetall. Large defence budgets favour the sector, but gains will not arrive evenly. Ammunition and maintenance can produce repeat orders. Ships and complex vehicle programmes bring larger contracts, but also greater political and execution risk.

The next battle is on the factory floor

Rheinmetall is investing heavily in plants, equipment and inventory. This expansion absorbs cash before customers receive their products.

Operating free cash flow was negative EUR 1.6 billion in the first half. Management attributed this mainly to delayed customer advance payments, higher inventories, receivables and continued investment. These may be normal growing pains, but profit can look excellent while cash takes a slower route home.

For the wider sector, the next phase is less about announcing larger budgets and more about industrial delivery. Suppliers of explosives, electronics, engines, sensors and specialised metals must expand alongside the main contractors. A missing component can delay an entire system.

Risks behind the order book

The main risks are contract concentration, delivery delays and persistent cash absorption. Early warning signs include repeated guidance changes, rising inventories without matching sales, slower backlog conversion and weaker margins as new factories ramp up. Political priorities can also change while total defence spending remains high.

Investor playbook

Separate spending promises from signed, funded contracts with realistic delivery dates.
Track whether backlog growth becomes revenue, profit and eventually cash.
Compare product mix, since repeat ammunition orders differ from one-off platform projects.
Diversify across contractors, suppliers, products and countries rather than one procurement decision.

The tide still matters

Rheinmetall’s quarter does not break Europe’s defence investment case. Demand remains strong, the order book is deep and factory economics are improving. But the lost frigate shows why investors cannot stop at headline budget numbers. Governments may spend more while changing suppliers, designs or schedules. Companies must finance capacity, manage complex supply chains and deliver equipment before accounting profits become cash.

The best long-term signal is not simply a larger backlog. It is a steady conversion of orders into profitable production and cash generation. Europe’s defence tide is still rising, but investors must check which vessels are actually under contract before assuming everything will float.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Defence Defence Rheinmetall AG

Novo Nordisk shares fall despite improved outlook – now the clear underdog across key battlegrounds

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 07:00:00 Z

Novo Nordisk shares fall despite improved outlook – now the clear underdog across key battlegrounds

Following yesterday's earnings reports from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's shares continue to trade close to record highs, while Novo Nordisk remains around 70% below its 2024 peak. For many Danish investors, it may seem difficult to reconcile such a sharp valuation gap with the progress Novo Nordisk has made in recent months - including a change in leadership, the highly anticipated launch of the oral version of Wegovy, and the extensive organisational cost-cutting programme initiated last year.

The short answer is that the market still expects Eli Lilly to emerge as the winner across the four key competitive battlegrounds that will define the obesity and diabetes markets over the coming years. As a result, Novo Nordisk is increasingly viewed as the industry's clear underdog. As long as this remains the prevailing market narrative, investors should not expect a meaningful re-rating of Novo Nordisk's shares. On the other hand, being the underdog could ultimately become a significant advantage. If Novo Nordisk can challenge the market's current assumptions over the coming quarters and years, the upside for the stock could be substantial.

Broadly speaking, the competition for leadership in the obesity and diabetes markets can be divided into four major battlegrounds.

Ozempic vs. Mounjaro
Wegovy vs. Zepbound
Wegovy Pill vs. Foundayo
CagriSema vs. Retatrutide

By focusing on the treatments for type 2 diabetes, until 2024–2025, Novo Nordisk was widely regarded as the market leader in the battle between Ozempic and Mounjaro. However, during 2026, Mounjaro sales have grown significantly faster than Ozempic sales. Although Novo Nordisk exceeded market expectations for Ozempic revenue in yesterday's earnings report, Eli Lilly continues to deliver substantially stronger growth for Mounjaro.

As the chart below illustrates, consensus forecasts expect this trend to continue over the coming years, with Eli Lilly maintaining a clear lead in revenue growth.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Numbers are shown in billions. Figures marked with "E" represent Bloomberg consensus estimates.

The same pattern can be seen in expectations for Wegovy versus Zepbound. These products are based on the same molecules as Ozempic and Mounjaro but are marketed exclusively for obesity treatment. Once again, the market's conclusion is the same: Novo Nordisk is expected to plateau at around its 2025 sales level, while Eli Lilly is forecast to roughly double its 2025 sales by 2028.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Numbers are shown in billions. Figures marked with "E" represent Bloomberg consensus estimates.

But what about oral Wegovy? Surely Novo Nordisk has the upper hand there? The answer is yes - if the focus is on 2026 alone. Looking beyond next year, however, consensus forecasts paint a different picture. Bloomberg estimates suggest that sales of oral Wegovy will be overtaken by Eli Lilly's newly launched obesity pill, Foundayo, by the end of 2027. These are, of course, market expectations rather than a certainty. Novo Nordisk could still prove the market wrong, but as the chart below shows, investors currently expect Eli Lilly to gain the upper hand in the oral obesity market as well.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Numbers are shown in billions. Figures marked with "E" represent Bloomberg consensus estimates.

The fourth and final battleground is the next generation of injectable obesity therapies - the successors to Wegovy and Zepbound that both companies are expected to launch in 2027. Initially, Bloomberg consensus estimates suggest that Novo Nordisk's highly anticipated CagriSema will outsell Eli Lilly's Retatrutide in 2027. However, the lead is expected to be short-lived. From 2028 onwards, consensus forecasts once again point to Eli Lilly overtaking Novo Nordisk, with Retatrutide projected to become the higher-selling next-generation obesity treatment.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Numbers are shown in billions. Figures marked with "E" represent Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Overall, this may sound like a bleak outlook for Novo Nordisk - and to some extent, it is. However, it also helps explain why the two companies trade at such different valuations. Today, Novo Nordisk trades at around 11x earnings, while Eli Lilly commands a multiple of roughly 33x. In other words, the market has already priced in Novo Nordisk as the likely loser and Eli Lilly as the likely winner across almost every major competitive battleground.

While expectations ultimately drive share prices, investors should remember that expectations are not the same as reality. If Novo Nordisk can reignite growth over the coming years and prove the market wrong, the upside for the shares could be substantial - particularly because expectations are currently so low and the company is viewed as the underdog across all four key battlegrounds.

On the other hand, if today's consensus forecasts prove accurate, investors should probably put aside hopes of a return to the DKK 1,000 share price levels seen during Novo Nordisk's glory days in 2024.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Oskar Barner Bernhardtsen

Investment strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Equity En hurtig tanke Highlighted articles

Market Quick Take - Chip jitters resurface as Hormuz hopes build - 6 August 2026

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Iran and Oman's Hormuz shipping-corridor deal capped a soft-data week ahead of Friday's payrolls.
Equities: US markets were mixed near records, Europe edged to another high, Asia fell as the AI rally cooled.
Volatility: Chip-sector jitters resurfaced overnight after a near-record close; vol stayed contained with jobs data ahead.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities firmed on Hormuz optimism while spot eased; Hashdex's ETF wind-down marked a sector milestone.
Commodities: Gold and silver rally hard, crude oil remains lower
Fixed Income: US treasuries remain firm on soft US employment data, Japan’s JGB’s rally on strong JGB auction
Currencies:Muted action as USD and JPY remain near weaker side of recent price action.

Macro

Iran and Oman agreed overnight to establish a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations of higher Middle East energy exports and marking the clearest step yet toward reopening the waterway.
US private payrolls (ADP) rose just 44,000 in July, the smallest gain in six months and well below the 70,000 forecast, keeping Friday's non-farm payrolls report the week's key print.
The ISM Services PMI ticked up to 54.1 and the S&P Global Services PMI jumped to 54.6, the fastest pace in nine months, though price pressures intensified on tariff-linked input costs.
Euro area producer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, the first drop in four months, led by a 1.5% fall in energy prices.
The UK Composite PMI rose to 52.2, its strongest reading since April, though employment kept falling even as output price inflation eased.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Sweden Jul. CPI
0600 – Germany Jun. Factory Orders
0930 – US Jul. Challenger Job Cuts
1230 – US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Wednesday (yesterday): Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%, while the Dow rose 0.5% to a third consecutive record close. Progress towards a US-Iran agreement and softer oil prices eased inflation concerns, while slower private hiring kept attention on Friday’s payroll report. Eli Lilly jumped 4.9% after beating expectations and raising guidance, and Disney gained 3.6% on stronger profit, while SpaceX sank 13.6% as heavy artificial intelligence spending and an expiring lock-up overshadowed revenue growth. AMD fell 7.0% despite strong data-centre sales as investors demanded clearer returns from spending.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 finished little changed at a fresh record, while the DAX fell 0.3% and the FTSE 100 added 0.1%. Earnings remained the main driver as Glencore rose 4.1% after first-half profit beat forecasts and Heineken gained 2.2% on stronger profit, while HSBC dropped 4.7% as concerns over Chinese taxes on offshore insurance products hit Asia-facing financial companies. Novo Nordisk fell 4.3% despite lifting its outlook, as investors focused on slightly weaker Wegovy pill sales and a CagriSema trial delay. Markets now turn to another heavy results day, with company guidance still outweighing the macro headlines.
Asia: Asian equities fell Thursday as the previous session’s artificial intelligence rebound lost momentum. The Nikkei 225 traded around 1% lower, the Kospi dropped 4% and the Hang Seng fell 1.9%, while mainland China was broadly flat, selling centred on semiconductor leaders including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kioxia and Tokyo Electron after weak reactions to US technology earnings. Singapore moved against the trend, with the Straits Times Index up 1.1% as DBS gained 3.0% to a record after quarterly profit beat estimates and management raised its 2026 income outlook. Korea’s latest swings showed that crowded trades rarely travel in a straight line.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Chipmakers reversed overnight after Wednesday's near-record close, Sandisk and Western Digital sliding post-market and the Kospi dropping 4.5% on SK Hynix and Samsung weakness, though US futures steadied. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday 0.2% lower at 7,736.52, just off its record. VIX eased to 15.81, VIX1D fell 12.6% to 12.12.
The term structure sits in contango, VIX3M at 18.95 and VIX1Y at 22.67, while SKEW held at a normal 133.32 and MOVE eased to 73.58. SPX's expected move is about 43 points (0.56%) into today's expiry and 64 points (0.83%) into Friday, with Friday's jobs report the key catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,436 -0.26% | ETHEREUM ~1,895 -0.64% | IBIT 36.74 +0.96% | ETHA 14.48 +2.33% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Crypto-linked equities firmed into Thursday even as spot eased slightly, tracking the Hormuz de-escalation and softer dollar lifting risk sentiment. IBIT and ETHA advanced, miners were mixed, with Cipher and Iren down over 4%, Marathon and CleanSpark also lower, though Coinbase and Strategy held steadier.
Hashdex began winding down its Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI), the first US spot bitcoin ETF liquidation, after fixed costs proved unsustainable against larger rivals; trading ends 17 August with cash distributions to follow.

Commodities

Precious metals surged to new local highs above the recent ranges, encouraged by a stronger US treasury market, with gold vaulting above USD 4,250 per ounce for the first time since June after rallying USD 170 per ounce Wednesday. The price retreated slightly from an intraday high early Thursday above USD 4,300 to trade at 4,260. Silver rallied some three dollars per ounce Wednesday, trading above USD 62 early Thursday.
LME copper maintained above USD 14,000 per tonne into the close of trade on Wednesday, closing at 14,150 and eyeing the highest level of all time from May at an intraday level just below 14,200.
Crude oil prices stayed under pressure and near recent range lows after Iran said it had reached an agreement with Oman on a route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. October Brent trades near USD 79 per barrel early Thursday and September WTI below UD 75 /bbl.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasuries remained firm through the softer than expected US ADP private payrolls data and the sharply weaker employment index in the ISM Services survey for July (see above). The benchmark 2-year treasury yield traded early Thursday near its lowest level in over two weeks near 4.19%, while the 10-year treasury yield was steady near 4.61%.
Japan’s government bonds rallied hard Thursday on a solid 30-year JGB auction result, flattening the yield curve. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped more than a basis point to below 1.57%, while 10-year and 30-year JGB yields fell about five basis points to near 2.78% and 3.94%, respectively.

Currencies

Very muted action in the major currencies as the US dollar remained on the weak side of recent price action, with EURUSD trading just below 1.1550 early Thursday after slightly higher levels overnight and USDJPY near 157.77, near the session high, but remaining bottle up below 158.00, which it has not touched since the big intervention moves last week.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

AI’s next phase: Investing beyond the bottlenecks

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Key points:

Cheaper AI strengthens the adoption story. Falling model and inference costs should allow AI to spread across more businesses, employees and everyday applications. That is positive for overall usage, even if it puts pressure on the pricing power of model developers and some hardware suppliers.
More intentional AI capex does not mean the end of hardware demand. Hyperscalers will keep spending, but they will increasingly optimise what hardware they buy, where they deploy it and what return it generates. The winners may shift from broad hardware exposure towards specialised bottlenecks and efficient infrastructure.
The KOSPI can rebound after deleveraging, but cleaner positioning is not a new memory cycle. Korea’s market mechanics have improved, yet a return to its previous pace of gains requires further earnings upgrades. The main risk is that memory expectations peak before underlying demand does.

The first phase of the artificial-intelligence trade was built around scarcity.

There were not enough advanced chips, high-bandwidth memory, networking components, power connections or data-centre capacity to satisfy demand. Investors did not need to know exactly how AI would be monetised. It was enough to own the companies supplying the bottlenecks.

That phase is evolving.

AI infrastructure spending remains strong, and hardware will remain essential. But the next phase will be less about who can build the largest model or secure the most advanced chip—and more about who can make AI affordable, efficient and useful.

For investors, this is a shift from AI scarcity to AI economics.

Why efficiency is moving to the centre of AI

The AI industry is not becoming less important. Parts of it are becoming more commoditised.

A growing number of companies can now access capable models through open-source systems, cloud platforms and application-programming interfaces. Businesses do not always need to train their own model, build a data centre or buy the most advanced GPU.

Most enterprises simply need AI that is:

sufficiently accurate;
easy to integrate;
secure and reliable;
fast enough for the task;
affordable at scale.

That changes the investment question.

The first phase was about maximising capability. The next phase will increasingly be about achieving the required capability at the lowest possible cost.

Two forces are accelerating this transition: Chinese competition and increasing scrutiny of hyperscaler spending.

China is competing through price and efficiency

China may not yet lead at every point of the advanced semiconductor frontier. But it is increasingly competitive in model architecture, efficiency, open systems and price.

Alibaba recently introduced its largest AI model to date, while DeepSeek released an ultra-low-cost model priced far below many competing systems. The releases reinforce China’s strategy of using open and affordable models to attract developers and accelerate adoption.

This matters because lower model prices can rapidly reduce the cost of deploying AI.

A retailer does not need the most powerful model in the world to improve product recommendations. A bank may not need frontier-level reasoning for every customer-service query. A manufacturer may require reliable anomaly detection rather than the most sophisticated general-purpose intelligence available.

As the performance gap between affordable and premium models narrows, fewer users will pay for maximum capability when a cheaper model is good enough.

That does not eliminate demand for advanced hardware. Frontier models, scientific research and hyperscale training will still require the most powerful chips available.

But it could change the mix of demand.

Growth may increasingly come from:

smaller and specialised models;
customised accelerators;
efficient inference chips;
conventional memory used intelligently;
edge computing;
software that reduces computing requirements;
cloud services that offer a choice of models and hardware.

Research into AI inference economics suggests that many workloads do not use all the computing power bundled into leading GPUs. Some inference tasks are constrained more by memory capacity and data movement than by raw computational power.

The implication is not that advanced GPUs become obsolete. It is that not every AI workload requires the most expensive hardware configuration.

AI capex is becoming more intentional

Questions about AI capex are sometimes interpreted too simplistically.

Investors worry that hyperscalers becoming more disciplined will mean an immediate fall in semiconductor and data-centre demand. That is not necessarily the right conclusion.

Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure because AI usage is rising and existing capacity remains constrained. Consensus estimates for capex by Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle increased from around $485 billion at the beginning of 2026 to approximately $730 billion by July.

The shift is not necessarily from spending to not spending. It is from spending at any price to spending with clearer economic intent.

That makes AI capex more selective, not necessarily smaller.

The overall spending cycle may continue, while growth rates slow from extraordinary levels. UBS estimates cited by Reuters suggested hyperscaler capex could grow by 76% in 2026, before slowing to 25% in 2027 and 6% in 2028.

For hardware investors, that distinction matters.

A slowdown in capex growth is different from an outright decline in capex. But equity markets react to changes at the margin. Hardware companies priced for continuously accelerating spending can still fall when growth merely becomes less exceptional.

From bigger models to better economics

Lower costs could create a powerful feedback loop.

As AI becomes cheaper, businesses can use more of it. A company that previously restricted AI to a small group of developers may roll it out across customer service, marketing, research, logistics and internal operations.

The cost of each individual task falls, but the number of tasks performed increases.

This is the bullish counterargument to concerns about hardware demand: efficiency can stimulate so much additional usage that overall computing requirements continue rising.

But value may be distributed differently.

When models are scarce and expensive, the model itself captures much of the economics. When models become easier to access and substitute, value can shift towards companies controlling:

distribution;
proprietary data;
customer relationships;
cloud infrastructure;
business workflows;
trusted applications.

That is why digital platforms may become more important.

Alibaba, Tencent, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta do not only provide models. They can embed AI into cloud services, advertising, commerce, workplace software, search, social media and existing customer ecosystems.

They do not have to find an entirely new customer every time they launch an AI product. They can distribute AI through services customers already use.

Is the memory cycle close to a peak?

The shift towards efficiency creates an important question for Korea.

The KOSPI has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI hardware and memory cycle. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have provided investors with exposure to booming demand for server memory and high-bandwidth memory.

After the recent correction, many investors are asking whether the market can return to its previous style of gains now that crowded positioning has been reduced.

There is a credible tactical rebound case.

J.P. Morgan analysts recently estimated that the leveraged ETF unwind was complete and that hedge funds were roughly 90% through the deleveraging process.

Cleaner positioning reduces the probability that further forced selling overwhelms fundamentals. It also gives investors greater confidence to rebuild exposure after a sharp correction.

But deleveraging resolves a market-structure problem. It does not automatically restart the earnings cycle.

The previous KOSPI rally was powered by several forces working together:

rising memory prices;
repeated earnings upgrades;
growing AI demand;
heavy foreign inflows;
increased leverage and momentum buying.

The leverage and momentum components can rebuild. The harder question is whether earnings expectations can continue rising at the same pace.

This is where the risk of a cyclical peak emerges.

It is important to define what “peak” means. It does not necessarily mean memory prices are about to collapse or that AI demand has peaked.

TrendForce still expects the DRAM market to remain undersupplied, with demand growth potentially continuing to exceed supply growth into 2027.

The greater risk is a peak in:

the rate of memory price increases;
the pace of earnings upgrades;
investor expectations;
valuation expansion;
the willingness to pay for distant profits.

Equities often peak before industry revenues or profits do. A company can continue reporting record earnings while its share price struggles because those records were already expected.

The memory outlook is also becoming more differentiated.

High-bandwidth memory and advanced server DRAM could remain structurally tight because AI systems require vast quantities of fast memory close to the processor.

Commodity DRAM and NAND are more cyclical. They are more exposed to capacity additions, Chinese competition and weaker demand from smartphones, personal computers and consumer electronics.

This makes it difficult to treat memory as one uniform investment theme.

How to position for AI’s next phase

The conclusion is not simply to sell hardware and buy software. Both categories contain potential winners and losers.

The stronger relative investment themes are:

AI applications and digital platforms over broad hardware exposure. Companies that can distribute and monetise AI may benefit more directly as model costs fall.
Profitable software over generic software. Prefer businesses with proprietary data, critical workflows, security, high switching costs and visible AI revenue. Avoid assuming every software company benefits from AI.
AI adopters over AI storytellers. Look for businesses already using AI to increase sales, improve margins or reduce operating costs—not those merely discussing future potential.
Efficient infrastructure over maximum computing power. Custom silicon, inference optimisation, networking, power management and cooling could become increasingly important as buyers focus on cost per task.
Advanced memory over broad commodity memory—but with greater valuation discipline. HBM and server memory remain structurally attractive, while commodity DRAM and NAND are more exposed to cyclical and supply risks.
China platforms and applications over export-dependent Chinese hardware. Lower-cost models favour companies with domestic distribution, cloud ecosystems and large customer bases. Hardware exporters face higher geopolitical risk.
Selective Korea over a broad KOSPI overweight. Cleaner positioning supports a tactical recovery, but sustainable gains require continued earnings delivery and broader market leadership.
Monetising hyperscalers over capex-dependent suppliers. Prefer cloud and platform companies demonstrating revenue growth and improving returns from AI investment over suppliers relying solely on another upward revision to capex.
Non-technology AI beneficiaries over concentrated semiconductor exposure. Financials, healthcare, industrials, logistics and consumer platforms could benefit as cheaper AI improves productivity.

Risks to the view

Hardware demand could reaccelerate

Lower costs may produce a much larger increase in AI usage. If token consumption rises faster than efficiency improves, demand for chips, memory and networking could strengthen again.

Memory shortages could persist

Advanced-memory supply remains constrained. HBM qualification, manufacturing complexity and limited packaging capacity could sustain stronger pricing and profits for longer than expected.

Software valuations may already reflect the rotation

Investors could move too quickly from semiconductors into expensive software stocks. Strong underlying growth does not protect investors who pay an excessive valuation.

AI may undermine traditional software pricing

Cheaper models can help software companies, but they also lower barriers to entry. Companies relying on easily replicated features or per-user subscription pricing may face pressure.

China’s price war may destroy margins

Affordable models can accelerate adoption while making it difficult for model developers and cloud providers to earn attractive returns.

Hyperscaler spending may continue to surprise higher

Demand remains strong, and companies may conclude that underinvestment presents a greater strategic risk than overspending. That would favour the existing hardware leaders.

Geopolitical restrictions may widen

Further US controls or Chinese retaliation could affect chips, optical components, materials, cloud access and overseas sales. Policy can overwhelm company fundamentals.

KOSPI deleveraging may not be fully behind us

Positioning has improved, but volatility can return if memory shares fall sharply, foreign investors reduce exposure or leveraged products rebuild too quickly.

Bottom line: The next AI trade is about returns

The AI theme remains structurally powerful. But it is becoming broader, more competitive and more demanding.

The first phase rewarded companies that controlled scarce infrastructure. The next phase will reward those that lower the cost of intelligence and turn it into revenue, productivity and cash flow.

Hardware remains necessary, but investors should no longer assume that every additional dollar of AI spending flows to the same suppliers—or that the most advanced hardware is required for every task.

The investment framework is therefore shifting:

Applications over AI promises; efficient infrastructure over hardware at any price; advanced memory over commodity exposure; China’s digital ecosystems over export-dependent suppliers; and companies generating returns from AI over those merely spending on it.

AI’s next phase is not about the end of the infrastructure buildout.

It is about moving beyond bottlenecks—and deciding who can make intelligence economically useful.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Indices Technology Technology South Korea Taiwan Nasdaq Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation Amazon Apple Apple Inc. Facebook Inc Adobe Alphabet UKMustRead UK Portfolio Ideas Samsung Electronics

SpaceX's Starmind to start on terra firma. Gold rally a signal?

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:27:00 Z

Market underwhelmed by SpaceX musings on future.

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Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Records extend, hedges build - Options Brief - 5 August 2026

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

The S&P 500 and Dow closed at fresh records Tuesday as Hormuz de-escalation hopes lifted stocks. Options pricing tells a different story about how calm this really is.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 16.50 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (126.41) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.85

Record breadth. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,736.52 (+1.8%), a record, while the Dow gained 1.7% to a record 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.3%, led by Palantir (+29.5%) and Caterpillar (+5.6%) on earnings beats.
Vol rose with the record. VIX gained 4.0% to 16.50 even as equities printed fresh records, and VIX1D spiked 47% to 13.86 ahead of today’s ISM Services print and Friday’s jobs report.
Post-close air pocket. AMD fell 8.8% and SpaceX dropped 7.5% after hours on guidance and cash-burn concerns, even as Asia’s chip complex extended its own rebound overnight, with SK Hynix up 6.9% and Samsung up 2.9%.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 5 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a run of strong earnings led by Palantir’s 29.5% surge, pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh records on Tuesday, and the rally carried into Wednesday’s Asia session. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Records extend on Hormuz hopes, 5 August 2026.

Market snapshot, Tuesday 4 August 2026 close

US (Tuesday 4 August close): S&P 500 +1.8% to a record 7,736.52; Dow +1.7% to a record 54,085.88; Nasdaq 100 +3.3%. Palantir jumped 29.5% after raising its outlook and Caterpillar climbed 5.6% on resilient equipment demand. After the close, SpaceX fell 7.5% on cash-burn concerns and AMD dropped 8.8% after its third-quarter outlook missed elevated expectations.
Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.7% to a record 656.86; DAX +0.8%; CAC 40 +0.6%; FTSE MIB +1.3% to a new high. ASML rose 3.7% as chip stocks rebounded.
Asia: Rallying Wednesday – Kospi traded around 4% higher, Nikkei +3.5%, Taiex +3%. SK Hynix jumped 6.9%, Samsung Electronics gained 2.9%, Advantest rose 8.0% and TSMC added 3.0% in Taipei.
Commodities and rates: Brent fell 5.3% to around $79, its lowest since 10 July, on Hormuz deal hopes; WTI slipped toward $74.50, a two-session decline past 10%. Gold rose 1.4% to around $4,135; copper broke above $14,000 a tonne, a two-month high. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.60%, near a two-week low.
Volatility complex: VIX 16.50 (+4.0%), VIX1D 13.86 (+47.0%), VIX9D 15.04 (+13.3%), SKEW 126.41 (normal, down from Tuesday’s elevated 139.96), COR3M 9.64 (+6.2%), DSPX 42.68 (+1.2%), front-month VIX futures 17.85 in contango to the second month at 19.20.
Market regime (rules based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 16.50, 20-day realised vol 14.1% (falling), S&P 500 +3.42% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 5 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 4 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow: Confirmed-opening call buying leaned bullish across the Magnificent Seven, concentrated in Alphabet’s October upside and near-dated Microsoft and Nvidia calls, while chip names carried a protection-shaped tilt, with an AMD collar ahead of earnings and paired SMH structures pointing to hedging rather than conviction.
Sector and ETF flow: Index and broad-market flow read as defensive beneath a call-led headline split, with the largest confirmed prints sitting in long-dated SPX and SPY put protection stretching out to 2027 – a pattern that, in our assessment, may point to portfolio insurance being added beneath the rally rather than a change in view.

Volatility surface – 5 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 16.50 (+4.0%)
VIX1D 13.86 (+47.0%) · VIX9D 15.04 (+13.3%)
VIX3M 19.34 (+2.2%) · VIX6M 21.35 (+0.7%) · VIX1Y 22.89 (-0.04%), a term structure that stays in contango out to the one-year point even as the front end richened overnight

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 17.85 (-1.1%), a premium to spot consistent with the contango shape
Second-month VIX futures 19.20 (-0.3%), front-to-second ratio at 0.930

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 126.41 (-9.7%), back to a normal reading within the 100–120 neutral zone’s upper range, down from Tuesday’s elevated 139.96
COR3M 9.64 (+6.2%)
DSPX 42.68 (+1.2%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.61, index put/call 0.78

Cross-asset volatility

OVX 53.45 (-6.6%), easing but still elevated alongside Brent’s 5.3% slide
GVZ 23.50 (-0.6%) · VXSLV 47.44 (+2.7%) · MOVE 77.56 (-3.6%)
VXN 25.48 (+2.9%) · RVX 20.37 (+1.4%) · VXD 15.02 (+8.0%) · VVIX 92.57 (+1.9%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 5 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

In our view, the market may be adding event premium into the week’s end rather than letting it run off. SPXW options imply a 47-point (0.61%) move for today’s expiry, a figure derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast, widening to 96 points (1.23%) into Friday’s jobs report – up from the 79 points (1.04%) quoted for the same expiry in Tuesday’s edition. Pure time decay alone would have narrowed that figure to roughly 64 points as the window shortened from three sessions to two. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
In our assessment, the front end may be pricing today’s ISM Services print and this week’s data cluster rather than doubt about the rally itself. VIX1D jumped 47% overnight to 13.86 even as the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, a sharp divergence from the rest of the curve, which stayed close to flat out to VIX1Y at 22.89.
In our view, that easing may point to tail-hedge demand cooling from its recent peak. CBOE SKEW fell 9.7% to 126.41, moving from the elevated 139.96 flagged in Tuesday’s edition back to a more normal reading, even as the VIX curve stays in contango out to VIX1Y.
In our assessment, that may be consistent with a dispersion-friendly tape rather than a market trading as a single basket. COR3M rose 6.2% to 9.64 but remains near multi-month lows, in a session where earnings winners such as Palantir and Caterpillar and after-hours laggards such as AMD and SpaceX moved on company-specific news rather than one macro factor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today’s catalysts

Data due today (times in CEST): US July ADP employment change at 14:15, US July ISM Services at 16:00, and the weekly DoE crude oil and product inventories report at 16:30. Earnings today include Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, SanDisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash and Infineon Technologies, with Tuesday’s after-hours numbers from SpaceX and AMD still working through the tape.

Conclusion

In our assessment, Wednesday’s setup may favour structures that respect a market pricing calm into today’s own close while quietly loading premium into Friday’s jobs report, rather than a straight continuation bet on Tuesday’s record breadth. VIX rising alongside the S&P 500’s record close, and SKEW easing while the broader curve holds contango, both may point to a market hedging around the rally rather than dismissing it, and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

SpaceX and AMD earnings: strong numbers meet stronger expectations

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Both companies beat current expectations, but investors focused on the timing and cost of future artificial intelligence returns.
SpaceX shows the buyer’s burden, AMD shows the supplier’s challenge in a more demanding artificial intelligence market.
The next winners may turn infrastructure spending into recurring revenue, stronger margins and cash flow.

Artificial intelligence has spent two years asking investors for patience. On 4 August 2026, SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) presented the latest bill.

SpaceX builds rockets, satellite networks and artificial intelligence infrastructure. AMD makes processors for computers and data centres. Both reported strong growth. Both shares fell in post-market trading.

Investors no longer ask only whether demand is growing. They ask who pays for it, when spending becomes revenue, and how much cash remains afterwards.

Good quarters, difficult audiences

SpaceX’s first report since its initial public offering delivered quarterly revenue of 7.8 billion USD, above Bloomberg expectations. Yet capital spending reached about 18.4 billion USD, mostly for artificial intelligence computing infrastructure.

SpaceX therefore spent more than twice its quarterly revenue building for the future. Investors questioned the timetable, not the ambition.

AMD faced a similar test. Quarterly revenue rose 50%, while data-centre sales more than doubled. But capital spending was almost three times higher than analysts expected, adding another question about how quickly growth will translate into cash.

A company can beat forecasts and still disappoint when its valuation assumes an even larger beat. Earnings are marked against expectations, not effort.

Two sides of the same data centre

SpaceX is becoming a giant buyer and operator of computing capacity. AMD wants to supply the processors that make that capacity useful. One writes the infrastructure cheque, the other competes to receive it.

Artificial intelligence has entered a more demanding phase. Building capacity is no longer enough. Companies must show that customers use it, pay for it and return often enough to cover the cost.

For SpaceX, that means converting heavy spending into durable cloud, connectivity and artificial intelligence revenue. Starlink provides an existing subscription engine, but newer projects still need large investment.

For AMD, the test is market share and execution. It has become a credible alternative to Nvidia in artificial intelligence processors. It must now prove customers adopt its broader systems at scale without sacrificing profitability.

The sector’s next dividing line

The market is splitting into three groups. One sells components such as processors, memory and networking equipment. Another builds data centres, power systems and cooling. The final group must earn enough from software and services to justify everyone else’s invoices.

The first two can enjoy strong demand while the third searches for returns. Either artificial intelligence revenue catches up, or infrastructure spending eventually slows.

The boom also creates bottlenecks. Memory shortages raise computer costs, while power constraints delay data centres. A gold rush still needs roads, electricity and rather a lot of air conditioning.

Risks worth watching

SpaceX’s main risk is that spending remains high while new revenue arrives more slowly than planned. Watch capital spending, free cash flow, Starlink subscriber growth and Starship delays.

AMD faces competition from Nvidia, customer-designed chips and other suppliers. Warning signs include slower data-centre growth, weaker pricing, rising inventories or delayed customer projects.

For the wider sector, the main risk is not that artificial intelligence disappears. It is that supply grows faster than profitable demand.

Investor playbook

Track revenue growth beside free cash flow. Fast sales matter less when cash consumption rises faster.
Separate company performance from market expectations. A good quarter can still be a poor surprise.
Map exposure across chips, memory, networking, power, cooling and software instead of treating artificial intelligence as one trade.
Watch customer concentration. Large contracts accelerate growth but can make revenue less dependable.

The next test is cash

Artificial intelligence is not running out of ambition. SpaceX is trying to connect rockets, satellites, cloud computing and artificial intelligence into one enormous system. AMD is trying to become the essential second supplier inside it. Both may succeed, but their earnings show that the market’s question has changed.

Investors once rewarded companies for joining the race. They now want evidence that spending creates repeatable revenue, improving economics and eventually cash. The useful lesson is not to predict the winner. It is to watch who converts construction into customers, customers into profits, and profits into cash. The bill has arrived. The receipts matter next.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Quarterly earnings

Market Quick Take - Records extend on Hormuz hopes - 5 August 2026

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Hopes for a Hormuz shipping deal set the tone ahead of a data-heavy, payrolls-capped week.
Equities: US and European equities reached records, while Asia rebounded sharply as technology shares and lower oil prices lifted sentiment.
Volatility: Vol firmed even as equities hit records, with hedging building ahead of this week's data.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities advanced as ETF inflows offset a miner earnings miss and fresh hacking headlines.
Commodities: Oil extended its slide on Hormuz hopes while copper held near a two-month high.
Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied strongly on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell sharply
Currencies: USD weaker on easing geopolitical tensions, lower crude oil prices and lower US treasury yields.

Macro

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, noting that some ships are already transiting the strait.
Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June 2026, slightly above May’s revised 3.3% and in line with forecasts. It was the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth and the fifth with gains above 3%. Base pay also increased 3.4%. Real wages rose 1.6% for a sixth month, bolstering the case for further central bank rate hikes.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 5.6% in Q2, the highest since 2015 and above expectations for an unchanged 0.4%. Employment was steady at 66.7%, and the increase in the participation rate by 0.3% to 70.7% was the chief driver of the gain in the unemployment rate. Underutilisation climbed to 13.8%, signaling more labour market slack.
US factory orders fell 0.3% in June 2026 to $656.5 billion after a 1.1% drop in May, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%, while durable goods rose 0.5%, with gains in machinery and electronics offset by weaker fabricated metals and transportation equipment.
US job quits rose by 79,000 to 3.23 million in June 2026, led by leisure and hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and construction. The quits rate stayed at 2.0%, near its lowest since 2020, indicating workers remain cautious about changing jobs.
US job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.36 million in June 2026, below expectations. Hires held at 5.3 million and separations at 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
US imports fell 1.8% in June 2026 to $388 billion, with goods down on weaker capital and consumer goods, partly offset by more telecom equipment. Services imports rose slightly, led by intellectual property, transport, and insurance, while travel decline.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1215 – US Jul. ADP Employment Change
1400 – US Jul. ISM Services
1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Tuesday: (yesterday): Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to a record 7,736.52, the Dow gained 1.7% to a record 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.3%, as strong earnings and falling oil prices revived risk appetite. Palantir surged 29.5% after raising its revenue and profit outlook, while Caterpillar climbed 5.6% after beating estimates on resilient equipment demand. After hours, SpaceX fell 7.5% despite stronger-than-expected revenue as heavy investment and cash burn drew scrutiny, while AMD dropped 8.8% after its third-quarter outlook failed to clear elevated expectations. Disney and Eli Lilly report next.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% to a record 656.86, while the DAX rose 0.8%, the CAC 40 added 0.6% and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 1.3% to a new high. Technology and mining shares led as copper prices strengthened and earnings remained supportive. Antofagasta surged 6.9% with the broader mining sector, ASML rose 3.7% as chip stocks rebounded and Bayer gained 2.4% after an unexpected profit increase. Lufthansa fell 8.2% after cutting its outlook, showing that earnings season still carried a few trapdoors. Siemens Energy and Novo Nordisk take focus today.
Asia: Asian equities rallied today, reversing Tuesday’s weakness as lower oil prices and Wall Street’s technology rebound lifted sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi traded around 4% higher, Japan’s Nikkei rose 3.5% and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 3%, while Hong Kong was broadly flat and mainland Chinese shares advanced. SK Hynix jumped 6.9% and Samsung Electronics gained 2.9% as memory-chip shares rebounded, while Advantest rose 8.0% with Japanese semiconductor names and TSMC added 3.0% in Taipei. The strong bounce reduced some recent stress, but Korea’s sharp daily swings showed that the AI trade remained energetic rather than calm.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Tuesday's Hormuz de-escalation and a chip-led earnings rally pushed the S&P 500 to a record close, extending into Wednesday's Asia session even as AMD and SpaceX missed on guidance after hours. VIX firmed to 16.50 and VIX1D jumped nearly 47% to 13.86, with this week's data keeping near-term hedging demand alive.
The term structure stayed in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.89, SKEW eased to a more normal 126.41 and MOVE fell to 77.56. SPXW pricing implies a 47-point (0.61%) move for today's expiry and 96 points (1.23%) into Friday 7 August, with Thursday's PCE the next catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,112 +0.11% | ETHEREUM ~1,866 -0.09% | IBIT 36.39 +0.64% | ETHA 14.15 +0.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Digital assets held a constructive tone into Wednesday, tracking the broader risk rally as Hormuz de-escalation and AI-earnings strength lifted sentiment. Spot traded in a tight overnight range while Coinbase and Strategy each added around 3%. Cipher Mining sank over 15% after a wide Q2 miss and new executive stock-sale plans.
US spot bitcoin ETFs drew over $170 million of net inflows on Tuesday, led by IBIT's $111 million, as institutional buying offset fresh hacking and outflow headlines elsewhere in the sector.

Commodities

Brent fell 5.3% Tuesday to settle around $79 a barrel, its lowest since 10 July, as Hormuz deal optimism intensified; it extended losses overnight to about $78.75 after Axios reported Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to reopen the strait, with a Wednesday announcement targeted. WTI slipped toward $74.50, taking the two-session decline past 10%, its steepest such drop in weeks.
Gold rose 1.4% overnight to around $4,135/oz, extending Monday's advance alongside Treasuries as easing Middle East tensions and falling real yields supported the metal's dual role as inflation hedge and safe haven; silver and platinum firmed on the same bid.
LME copper broke above $14,000 a tonne Tuesday, its highest in two months, as traders weighed swelling US inventories ahead of an expected Trump administration decision on import tariffs; the cash-to-three-month spread widened sharply to $102.38 a tonne, its highest since October 2025, signalling tightening near-term supply even as headline stockpiles build.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is due today at 8:30am ET and represents the key near-term risk for the bond market. Dealers broadly expect the Treasury to reiterate its guidance of no near-term increases in coupon auction sizes as the Treasury seems intent on increasing bill issuance to finance ever-larger US deficits.
US Treasuries rallied as crude oil prices were punched sharply lower Tuesday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading early Wednesday below 4.19%, nearly five basis points below Monday’s close. The 10-year treasury yield trades 4.60%, down eight basis points from Monday’s level and near a two-week low ahead of key US economic data for the remainder of the week, including the July ISM Services survey today and July jobs data on Friday.
US high-yield bonds rallied again Tuesday, with the Bloomberg index of the spread between high-yield bonds and US treasuries tightening five basis points to 266 basis points and now down from last week’s peak of 289 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar weakened with the drop in geopolitical tensions and crude oil prices and the dip in US treasury yields. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1541 by early Wednesday and AUDUSD as high a s 0.7056 in relatively muted action.
USDJPY rolled over again early Wednesday, trading near 157.50 after finding resistance Tuesday just ahead of 158.00 and the 200-day moving average just above that level. EURJPY traded slightly lower at 181.72 early Wednesday after an overnight high just ahead of 182.00.
The New Zealand Dollar weakened after a jump in the Q2 NZ unemployment rate (see above) as RBNZ policy tightening expectations were lowered. AUDNZD traded back above 1.2000 by early European hours Wednesday for the first time in nearly a week.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Mega-cap rally, chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:55:00 Z

Mega-caps carried the S&P 500 to the edge of a record Monday as Iran stood down and oil slid. Options pricing already looks past today, toward Friday’s payrolls.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | VIX 15.86 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (139.96) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.81

Record chase. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,600.50 (+1.48%), within 0.1% of its 7,609.78 record close, powered by Microsoft (+4.9%), Meta (+6.0%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+4.6%).
Volatility compression. VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43 as Iran de-escalation removed the weekend’s tail risk. SPXW options now price a 30-point (0.39%) move for today’s expiry, widening to 79 points (1.04%) into Friday’s payrolls.
Unresolved cross-current. A fresh South Korean chip selloff (KOSPI -1.1%) is capping Tuesday’s follow-through, and SKEW holds elevated at 139.96 even as headline volatility eases – in our view, a sign the market isn’t fully at ease behind the rally.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 4 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Iran standing down from a threatened strike, paired with a 4.7% slide in Brent crude, cleared the way for Monday’s rally that carried the S&P 500 to a near-record close. Tuesday opened more cautiously as South Korean chip volatility capped the follow-through. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Wall Street nears a record as Asia’s chip jitters linger, 4 August 2026.

Market snapshot, Monday 3 August 2026 close

US (Monday 3 August close): S&P 500 +1.48% to 7,600.50 (0.1% off its record); Nasdaq 100 +1.78%; Dow +1.32% to a fresh record 53,178.41. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon each gained between 4.6% and 6.0%; Apple was the lone laggard, down 0.5%.
Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.5% to 652.09, close behind its own record; DAX +1.5% to a fresh intraday record above 26,000; CAC 40 touched its first intraday record since February.
Asia: Diverging Tuesday – MSCI Asia Pacific -0.7% on renewed South Korean chip volatility; KOSPI -1.1%; Hang Seng -0.5%; ASX 200 +1.3%.
Commodities and rates: Brent crude bounced to just above $85/bbl Tuesday after Monday’s slide to $81.55; gold rangebound near $4,107; the US 10-year yield edged up to 4.69%.
Volatility complex: VIX 15.86 (-0.8%), VIX1D 9.43 (-23.3%), VIX9D 13.28 (+1.8%), SKEW 139.96 (elevated), COR3M 9.08 (-6.5%), DSPX 42.17 (+1.8%), front-month VIX futures 17.81 in contango to the second month at 19.05.
Market regime (rules based read): Transitioning (mixed signals), VIX 15.86, 20-day realised vol 12.2% (falling), S&P 500 +0.24% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 4 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 3 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow: Confirmed-opening call buying dominated the Magnificent Seven (73.6% of premium), concentrated in Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet upside out to January 2027, leaving dealers short calls above spot and tending to buy into strength as those strikes approach.
Sector and ETF flow: Index and SPY flow ran the other way, with layered put structures built across the August-to-November expiries even as the index rallied – a pattern that, in our assessment, reads as protection retained around the upside rather than a change in view.

Volatility surface – 4 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 15.86 (-0.8%)
VIX1D 9.43 (-23.3%) · VIX9D 13.28 (+1.8%)
VIX3M 18.93 (-0.5%) · VIX6M 21.20 (-0.7%) · VIX1Y 22.90 (-0.2%), a term structure that stays in contango out to the one-year point

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 17.81 (-0.8%), a premium to spot consistent with the contango shape
Second-month VIX futures 19.05 (-0.7%), front-to-second ratio at 0.935

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 139.96 (-0.9%), elevated versus the 100–120 neutral zone
COR3M 9.08 (-6.5%)
DSPX 42.17 (+1.8%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.78, index put/call 0.89

Cross-asset volatility

OVX 57.20 (-9.3%), easing sharply alongside Monday’s reversal in crude
GVZ 23.65 (+1.5%) · VXSLV 46.20 (+1.5%) · MOVE 80.48 (-3.1%)
VXN 24.77 (-4.7%) · RVX 20.09 (-0.9%) · VXD 13.91 (+0.8%) · VVIX 90.81 (-0.9%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 4 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

In our assessment, the market may be pricing minimal near-term event risk. SPXW options imply just a 30-point (0.39%) move for today’s expiry after VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43 overnight, consistent with Monday’s Iran de-escalation removing the main overnight tail. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
In our view, the term structure may be loading event risk toward the week’s end rather than today. The SPXW implied range widens to 79 points (1.04%) into Friday’s payrolls report, a figure derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
In our view, the market may still be willing to pay for tail protection despite the calm headline print. The VIX curve stays in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.90, and SKEW holds elevated at 139.96 even as spot volatility eases.
In our assessment, Monday’s options flow may be consistent with protection bought around retained upside rather than a bearish turn. SPY and SPXW puts were layered across the August-to-November window even as the index rallied to a near-record close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today’s catalysts

Data due today (times in CEST): US June trade balance and Canada’s June merchandise trade at 14:30, US June factory orders and JOLTS job openings at 16:00, and New Zealand’s Q2 employment and wage data overnight at 00:45. Earnings after Monday’s close from Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Marriott International set the after-hours tone; today brings SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer and BP.

Conclusion

In our assessment, the setup into Friday’s payrolls print may favour structures that respect a market pricing near-term calm while quietly building event premium into the week’s end, rather than a straight continuation bet on Monday’s mega-cap breadth. With SKEW still elevated and South Korean chip volatility an unresolved cross-current, options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Palantir beats and entertains. What can SpaceX deliver?

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:35:00 Z

Palantir CEO is a one of a kind.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Palantir earnings: AI leaves the laboratory and enters the workflow

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:50:00 Z

Key takeaways

Palantir shows business demand for artificial intelligence moving from experiments into daily operations.
Rapid growth now comes with strong profit and cash generation, making the story harder to dismiss.
US momentum is exceptional, but high expectations and weak international growth leave little room for ordinary results.

On 3 August 2026, the data software company reported that revenue nearly doubled and lifted its full-year outlook above market expectations. Palantir closed at 125.65 USD before the results, then rose as much as 15.1%, to 144.65 USD in extended trading.

The reaction was not simply applause for an earnings beat. The quarter challenged two concerns: that generative artificial intelligence could replace traditional software, and that Palantir’s valuation demanded impossible growth.

From pilot project to operating system

Many companies can demonstrate an artificial intelligence model. Far fewer can connect it safely to customer records, factories, supply chains or military decisions.

That gap is Palantir’s opportunity. Its software sits between data, models and the people using the output. The model supplies an answer, while Palantir helps an organisation decide what to do with it.

US commercial revenue rose 149% from a year earlier. This was also broader than one flattering contract. Palantir signed 220 deals worth at least 1 million USD and reported a sharp rise in contracted work not yet recognised as revenue.

The wider software lesson is clear. Artificial intelligence winners may not only build the smartest models. They may also make those models useful, secure and difficult to remove from everyday operations.

Growth meets the cash register

Fast-growing software companies often ask investors to admire sales today and wait for profits tomorrow. Palantir is now offering both.

Revenue grew 93%, while adjusted operating profit exceeded 60 cents for every dollar of sales. Free cash flow, the money left after running and investing in the business, topped 1 billion USD.

Its Rule of 40 score reached 155. This measure adds revenue growth to operating margin to test whether expansion and profitability arrive together. A score above 40 is usually considered healthy. The name is dull. The result is not.

This explains much of the reaction. Investors received evidence that new business can produce substantial profit without costs rising at the same speed.

Sovereignty cuts both ways

Palantir describes its offer as “sovereign artificial intelligence”. Customers can use different models while keeping control of sensitive data and decisions.

That appeals to US companies worried about handing valuable information to external model providers. It also supports defence demand for software that combines data, planning and real-time action.

However, sovereignty has a second meaning. European governments increasingly want local control and less dependence on US technology suppliers. Palantir’s international sales grew far more slowly than its US business, while some European institutions have moved towards domestic alternatives.

The same force helping Palantir at home can therefore limit it abroad. Geography is becoming part of the product.

Risks: gravity still applies

The first risk is expectations. Palantir can perform very well while its shares disappoint if growth becomes merely excellent rather than extraordinary.

The second is concentration. The United States provides most revenue, and government work remains politically sensitive. Contract delays, policy changes or local-supplier rules could affect growth.

Finally, Palantir plans to increase hiring and product spending. Investors should watch whether margins remain strong as the company expands.

Investor playbook

Separate business quality from share-price expectations. A strong company can still carry an unforgiving valuation.
Track contract growth, customer expansion and cash generation, not only headline revenue.
Watch whether commercial success spreads beyond the United States and across more industries.
Compare software firms on real deployments, not the number of artificial intelligence announcements.

The useful signal behind the spectacle

Palantir’s language is rarely shy, and this quarter gives management plenty to celebrate. Yet the useful signal is quieter. Artificial intelligence spending is starting to favour software that connects models to real work, protects sensitive data and produces measurable returns. Palantir currently does all three unusually well.

The next test is not whether growth remains “otherworldly”. No business lives there permanently. It is whether Palantir can turn today’s surge into durable customer habits, broader international demand and cash flows that justify high expectations. Artificial intelligence may start in the laboratory, but long-term value appears only when it clocks in for work.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence UKMustRead Quarterly earnings

DRAM: the memory boom now has an option chain. Here is how to read it

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:55:00 Z

A four-month-old ETF already carries millions of option contracts in open interest. The chain looks familiar, but almost none of the usual measures can bear the weight traders put on them.

Most of what we lean on to judge an option chain needs history. What do you do when there is barely any?

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) is an actively managed fund holding the companies that make computer memory, the DRAM and NAND chips and the high-bandwidth memory that artificial-intelligence servers consume in volume. It listed on 2 April 2026 and has had an eventful start. It closed its first session at 27.76, reached 80.72 on 22 June, and traded near 50.90 on 3 August 2026, some 37% below the June high (Source: Saxo price history, 3 August 2026). Open interest across its calls and puts already runs past 2.9 million contracts (Source: Bloomberg, 3 August 2026).

So there is enough liquidity to trade, and not enough history to judge it with the measures most traders reach for first. What follows is a sequence of checks rather than conclusions.

Key takeaways

Roughly 40% of the fund is swap exposure rather than owned shares, and 26% sits in Treasury bills
About two thirds of its price variance has happened overnight, while the US options market was closed
Volatility rank, expected-move comparisons and open-interest clusters all need more history than this instrument has

DRAM daily (upper) and 4-hour (lower) since listing. There is not yet enough history to plot a 200-day average, which is itself part of the problem. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader

Step one: read the holdings before you read the chain

A ticker called DRAM suggests a basket of memory shares. The holdings file describes something more layered. Its largest single line is Treasury bills at 26.5% of net assets, and close to 40% of the fund’s exposure arrives through total return swaps rather than owned shares (Source: Bloomberg holdings, 3 August 2026). Micron makes the point: its swap and share lines give roughly 24.5% exposure, of which only about 2.4% sits in actual shares.

The fund’s 21 holdings. The four lines marked SWAP are contracts with a bank rather than shares, the Treasury bills sit as collateral behind them, and the negative dollar line is the financing side. Micron appears three times, twice as a swap and once, at 2.36%, as actual stock. The price in the panel header is a later intraday print than the 50.90 reference used elsewhere in this article. Source: Bloomberg, 3 August 2026

What a swap position actually is. A total return swap is a contract with a bank rather than a shareholding. The fund pays a financing fee, and in return the bank pays it whatever the referenced shares earn, so the fund ends up with the economic exposure without owning the stock. Funds reach for this when the underlying market is awkward to hold directly, which describes Korean, Taiwanese and mainland Chinese listings well, since foreign-ownership limits, local settlement rules and withholding tax all make direct ownership expensive.

That also explains the rest of the holdings file. The Treasury bills sit as collateral behind those swap contracts, and the negative dollar line is the financing side of the same arrangement. The trade-off is that a swap is a claim on a counterparty: if the bank on the other side fails, the holder is left with a claim rather than the shares, and the financing fee is a standing drag on returns. None of this makes the fund unsound, and it does mean the wrapper is doing more work than the ticker suggests.

Geography matters too. Samsung Electronics, the largest holding near 26.4%, trades in Seoul alongside SK hynix, with further names in Tokyo, Taipei and Shanghai, so close to 60% of the equity exposure sits in markets shut while US options are open.

Step two: find out where the movement actually happens

That can be measured, and in our view it is worth establishing before pricing any option here. Across 83 completed sessions the average gap from one close to the next open has been 4.10%, and 72% of sessions gapped more than 2%. Splitting each day’s return into overnight and intraday parts, the overnight portion carries roughly 67% of total variance (Source: Saxo price history, 3 August 2026). Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

The consequence is uncomfortable. A position cannot be managed through the move that matters most, because it happens while the market is shut. Stop orders offer little protection across such a gap, and undefined-risk structures carry exposure that cannot be hedged intraday. Defined risk here looks less like a preference than a requirement.

Step three: notice which measurements are not available yet

Volatility rank. DRAM’s 30-day implied volatility reads near 95%, around 77 on a 52-week rank (Source: Bloomberg, 3 August 2026). The fund has existed four months, so that window is its entire life rather than a year of behaviour, which makes the rank arithmetically correct and narrower than it looks.

Comparisons against past moves. The chain prices a move of about 18% by the 21 August 2026 expiry, and the obvious check is whether this fund usually travels that far. That check is not available yet. Four months of trading contains only about four separate 18-session stretches, and nobody would call a coin biased after four flips.

Open interest as a map. The heaviest August strike is the 60 call at 73,384 contracts (Source: Saxo, 3 August 2026). The fund traded between 55 and 60 in mid-July and now sits near 51, so that cluster marks where price has been.

Step four: choose the expiry deliberately

The nearest standard monthly is a habit rather than an argument. A common way to estimate the market-implied move is to add the at-the-money call and put premiums for an expiry, then compare that straddle price to the share price. On that basis 21 August 2026 prices about 18% and 18 September 2026 about 26.5%, with at-the-money implied volatility near 103% and 95% (Source: Saxo, 3 August 2026).

Each expiry wins on a different measure. September pays more outright, since a 45/40 put spread there collects roughly 34% of the strike width against about 25% for August. A common convention is to want at least a third of the width when selling a vertical, which September roughly meets and August falls well short of. August holds the better cushion against what is priced, its break-even absorbing close to three quarters of the expected move against a little over half for September. The examples below use September for both verticals so that reversing two strikes can be seen on its own.

Where this lands, part one: a range-bound or mildly constructive view

Steps two and three rule out more than they rule in.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 18 September 2026 45 put (mid approximately 4.18)
Buy 1 18 September 2026 40 put (mid approximately 2.47)
Net credit: approximately 1.71 = 4.18 taken in on the short 45 put, less 2.47 paid for the long 40 put; at a working limit of 1.70 the premium is 170 USD
Maximum risk: approximately 330 USD (5.00 width less the 1.70 credit), hypothetical, for education only
Maximum profit: approximately 170 USD, hypothetical, for education only
Break-even at expiry: approximately 43.30, some 14.9% below the 50.90 reference price

Quotes as at 3 August 2026; reprice from the live chain before any entry. All figures are hypothetical and for education only. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

The short 45 put collects the premium and marks where the position begins to suffer, while the long 40 put caps that damage at approximately 330 USD, the most this structure can lose. Both strikes carry open interest above 12,000 contracts (Source: Saxo, 3 August 2026), which matters where quotes thin away from round strikes.

Strategy insight - the greeks describe the view. The position carries delta near 0.10, theta around 0.01 and vega near -0.013, so it may benefit modestly from time passing and from falling implied volatility, with maximum loss fixed at 330 USD.

Put credit spread payoff at the 18 September 2026 expiry. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader

Where this lands, part two: a view on the term structure

The gap between August and September implied volatility is itself tradable. A calendar spread sells the nearer, dearer expiry and buys the further one.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 21 August 2026 50 call (mid approximately 4.88, implied volatility near 103%)
Buy 1 18 September 2026 50 call (mid approximately 7.15, implied volatility near 95%)
Net debit: approximately 2.28 = 7.15 paid for the September call, less 4.88 taken in on the August call
Maximum risk: approximately 228 USD, the debit paid, hypothetical, for education only
Maximum profit and break-evens: model-dependent, not fixed at entry

A calendar’s profit zone is an estimate, not a defined outcome: the September call’s residual value at the August expiry depends on implied volatility then. The structure is typically net long vega, so a broad decline in implied volatility may work against it even while time decay works for it. Maximum loss stays at the 228 USD debit.

Strategy insight - a short leg on a gapping instrument. The August call is American-style and can be assigned before expiry if it moves into the money, and given the overnight behaviour in step two it may travel a long way before the trader can respond.

Modelled rather than quoted, because a payoff spanning two expiries cannot be charted from a single expiry. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: modelled from Saxo chain data

Where this lands, part three: a view that the decline continues

The first example’s two strikes, reversed, express the opposite view.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Buy 1 18 September 2026 50 put (mid approximately 6.53)
Sell 1 18 September 2026 45 put (mid approximately 4.18)
Net debit: approximately 2.35 = 6.53 paid for the long 50 put, less 4.18 taken in on the short 45 put; at a working limit of 2.30 the premium is 230 USD
Maximum risk: approximately 230 USD, the debit paid, hypothetical, for education only
Maximum profit: approximately 270 USD (5.00 width less the 2.30 debit), hypothetical, for education only
Break-even at expiry: approximately 47.70, some 6.3% below the 50.90 reference price

The long 50 put provides the downside exposure and the short 45 put reduces its cost, capping any gain below 45. This one needs a decline through 47.70 before the 230 USD paid starts to be recovered, and that debit is the whole risk.

Strategy insight - the same strikes, opposite work. This structure carries delta near -0.11, theta around -0.005 and vega near +0.008, inverting the first example on all three. The 45 put appears in both, collecting premium in one and cutting cost in the other, so a contract’s role comes from the structure around it.

Bear put spread payoff at the 18 September 2026 expiry. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader

Before placing any trade, check:

Bid/ask spreads, which widen sharply away from the round strikes and can remove any theoretical edge at entry
Volume and open interest at the specific strikes selected, not merely at the headline strikes
Whether the position depends on intraday management, given how much of this fund’s movement occurs overnight
Implied volatility against realised volatility, and whether the difference reflects a regime expected to persist
An exit plan defined before entry, particularly for structures whose profit zone is model-dependent
Assignment risk on any short leg that may move into the money

Assignment risk note: Because DRAM options are American-style, short legs in these structures can be assigned before expiry if they move into the money, particularly close to expiration. Traders should monitor short options and understand their platform’s assignment process before entering any position.

Final thoughts

The three structures above illustrate a method rather than recommend a trade, and the method is the transferable part. A reader who runs the same four checks and decides four months is too little history to trade against has reached an equally defensible answer. New instruments keep arriving, each with a familiar-looking chain attached to an underlying that has not earned the assumptions traders bring to it.

Options remain a framework for structuring uncertainty rather than a means of removing it, and that distinction matters most when the uncertainty is largest. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

At the time of publication the author does not hold positions in the instruments referenced in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

The FX Trader: Coordinated JPY intervention changes the playing field.

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:46:00 Z

And it won’t just be about USDJPY.

The latest

Coordinated JPY intervention is a big deal, but how does the JPY path shape up from here? Since Friday’s follow-on JPY strengthening, the US made it clear over the weekend that it was also involved in strengthening the Japanese yen by, rather interestingly, confirming that the New York Fed sold euro versus the yen on Friday through accounts with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Buying JPY via EURJPY selling sends the indirect message that the US doesn’t want to send any strong signals on its opinion of the US dollar level. This is perhaps a nod at the US treasury market, where yields are at recent cycle highs. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has no interest in adding any kind of negative pressure on treasuries when the cost of financing US debt is near/at record levels of GDP. Bessent was also at pains to point out that Japan could access the Fed’s FIMA repo facility to intervene, posting its treasuries as collateral to obtain USD to sell rather than selling its treasuries holdings in the open market.

Elsewhere, a key Japanese “currency official” at the Ministry of Finance, Atsushi Mimura, claimed already on Friday that the US was offering more than “moral support”. Early Monday, a further wave of intervention seemed in play, one that drove the JPY to new local highs before backfilling set in late and early Tuesday. Besides the coordinated intervention, Mimura claimed that FX policy would also be coordinated with the Bank of Japan, helping send short JGB yields sharply higher Monday. This latter is a key pillar of support for the JPY beyond the coordinated intervention.

Now, it’s a question of what to make of the situation and the move thus far as well as the intent and determination of both Japanese and US officialdom. The situation is difficult for traders, as it always is when quiet and low-volatility trading ranges suddenly yield to huge moves, but I take a stab in the bottom line below.

Bottom line(s): The first key bottom line is that we have a JPY signal here, not a US dollar signal. If US treasury yields remain elevated near cycle highs and we continue to see strong US data this week through Friday’s jobs report, we could have a regime of both a stable and even firmer US dollar and a strong Japanese yen. Some of the crosses like EURJPY, CHFJPY (the only positive carry choice for JPY longs) and GBPJPY look even more out of whack in valuation terms than USDJPY in the longer-term picture. So traders may want to widen the view beyond USDJPY and think JPY more broadly here.

The remaining key question: is the primary intent merely to staunch the bleeding in the JPY or to see a determined revaluation? I suspect the latter is the eventual goal – something like a 10% or greater move in JPY vs. EUR and USD seen as sufficient to discourage JPY carry trading again, with the hope that Japan’s savers revive their interest in domestic bonds, etc. But it is difficult to know how strongly the market will front-run officialdom and make the move more organically than anything we have seen thus far, where interventions quickly are backfilled, Japan’s policymakers could follow through with a surprisingly quick additional rate hike and hawkish guidance and perhaps sterner language or actual policy on domestic savings to bring additional JPY support, though so far Governor Ueda has been a slow mover in all of this.

Chart focus: EURJPY.
Of course everyone will focus on USDJPY as the most traded JPY pair and the chief vehicle Japan’s Ministry of Finance uses when pushing back against JPY weakness. Key resistance levels there include the 200-day moving average near 158.00 and then the psychological 160.00 level. But a look at other JPY pairs reminds us how profoundly weak the currency is across the board, and these JPY pairs could prove even more volatile than USDJPY itself if the US dollr remains firm. One of the most egregiously overvalued JPY pairs in my eyes has been EURJPY, which hit its record high since the Euro began trading in the 1990’s earlier this year near 188. Already in the summer of 2024 I thought the break above the prior high from 2008 near 170 was taking EURJPY to stretched levels. Back then, the Bank of Japan “intervened” in the JPY carry trade of the time with a surprise rate hike at its July 31, 2024 meeting. This triggered a meltdown from above 175 to below 155.00. Then in 2025 and into this year, the story became one of Japan’s “uninvestible” bond market as the longest Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields showed that the country was finally exiting its multi-decade deflation and low rates era. The 30-year JGB yield benchmark, already creeping higher from early 2022 with the secular shift in global- and eventually Japanese inflation, began grinding higher from early 2023, when it traded around 1.25% to as high as 4.00% by May of this year. For perspective on what that kind of a yield rise means for holders of long-term bonds, consider the 0.5% 2060 JGB, which has fallen from its issuance at par (100) in 2020 to a current price just below 37.0. But that doesn’t mean that the bond is going to zero. At an effective yield of 4% to maturity, that bond offers far better inflation protection than in the ZIRP era.

With the latest bout of intervention, including the US selling euros versus the Japanese yen, EURJPY has dropped as low as 179.37 before bouncing here. The first resistance level is arguably the 182.00 area of the prior notable range low, though the 200-day (40-week) moving average is a more important one up at 183.73 currently. For an indication that we are to continue lower sooner rather than later, I would prefer that the 182.00-182.50 area holds. A more reasonable price for the EURJPY pair is something like 155-160 if the market and the authorities decide that Japan is becoming a “normal” country again with respect to inflation and monetary policy. And that area would still be at the high end of the long term range.

Source: Saxo

Rest of week ahead: USD status, please.
We got a strong July US ISM Manufacturing survey yesterday, which makes sense after a string of mostly strong regional surveys. A strong ISM Services survey Wednesday would offer a more robust indicator on the broader status of the US economy, and the various jobs figures (JOLTS today, ADP tomorrow and the main July jobs report on Friday) will play their part in determining the status of the US dollar, ex USDJPY. Given US treasury yields trading near the cycle highs, the US dollar may be tough to topple unless those yields are punched lower by the data.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

We have a downright absurd momentum shift of 9.7 in the last five days for JPY crosses, indicative of the violence of the move lower in JPY crosses, which now feel firmly capped if not necessarily ready to trend smoothly lower. Elsewhere, a key signal for CHF that “contagion” from the challenge to JPY carry trades has not sustained after the initial little knee-jerk rally in CHF last Thursday. This encourages CHFJPY as a vehicle for expressing the idea that the SNB would like a weaker CHF while Japan wants its stronger JPY.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
All JPY pairs have flipped to negative trending scores, though risk/reward levels for trading a new trend are difficult here as noted above. Elsewhere, the fresh EURUSD uptrend status is uncertain as traders will question how much was driven by USDJPY intervention – we should have a cleaner read on the USD status by the end of the week.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - Wall Street nears a record as Asia's chip jitters linger - 4 August 2026

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:26:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Iran talks resume as strong US manufacturing data and Friday's payrolls frame a cautious week.
Equities: US and European equities rallied on cheaper oil and AI strength, while Asian markets turned mixed as Korean chip volatility persisted.
Volatility: Iran de-escalation and AI earnings drove a Monday rally, though Asian chip volatility keeps VIX subdued into payrolls.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities extended Monday's rally as sentiment improved, while Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF to close.
Commodities: Oil bounced back from Monday's steep drop. Gold rangebound while copper surged to multi-week high.
Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebound slightly from Monday's drop as risk appetite returned. New high in short JGB yields.
Currencies:The yen gave back some intervention-driven gains while the dollar held broadly steady overnight.

Macro

Iran said talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, after Trump called off a planned strike and called his latest offer "Tehran's last chance," adding he expects a full reopening of the Strait.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3, topping forecasts for the strongest expansion since May 2022, with faster output, solid new orders and a return to job growth.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 53.9 in July, matching June for a 12th straight month of expansion, though momentum softened with slower new orders and weaker exports.
US construction spending fell 0.1% in June to an annualised $2.17 trillion, missing expectations as residential activity declined; first-half spending was down 3.5% year-on-year.
Germany's retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in June, the sharpest drop since May 2025, while Swiss CPI cooled to 0.4% year-on-year in July, the weakest since March.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US Jun. Trade Balance
1230 – Canada Jun. International Merchandise Trade
1400 – US Jun Factory Orders
1400 – US Jun. JOLTS Job Openings
2245 – New Zealand Q2 Employment and Wage data

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Monday (yesterday): Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International
Tuesday: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: The S&P 500 closed Monday up 1.5% at 7,600.50, within 0.1% of its record high, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8% as easing Middle East tensions and AI-earnings strength drove the rally. Microsoft led with a 4.9% gain, Meta surged 6%, Alphabet +4.9% and Amazon +4.6% after crossing a $3 trillion market cap. Apple was the lone laggard, off 0.5%. After hours, Palantir jumped almost 15% on raised guidance and Snap beat Q2 revenue estimates, guiding Q3 in line. Tuesday's session is more cautious: Nasdaq 100 futures were up around 0.4% pre-market, but fresh South Korean chip volatility is capping follow-through as SK Hynix and Samsung remain volatile after Monday's chip rout.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 added 0.5% to 652.09, just shy of its record, as falling oil prices and AI-earnings momentum lifted sentiment. The DAX hit a fresh intraday record at 26,001, up 1.5%, and the CAC 40 touched its first intraday record since February, SAP led gains, up 4.4%. UK homebuilders jumped as much as 6.5% as markets pared Bank of England rate-hike bets on lower oil, while AstraZeneca fell 9.0% after reports of possible merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb raised concerns about execution and the future of a major UK listing.
Asia: Asian equities diverged from Wall Street's rally Tuesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge down 0.7% as persistent South Korean chip volatility revived AI-valuation worries, a regional semiconductor gauge fell 1%. Australia's ASX 200 rose 1.3% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.8% Monday.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Monday's US-Iran de-escalation and blowout AI earnings drove the S&P 500 to a 1.5% close within a whisker of a record, though a fresh South Korean chip selloff is capping follow-through Tuesday. VIX eased to 15.86 and VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43, pricing very little near-term risk.
The term structure stayed in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.90, SKEW held elevated at 139.96 and MOVE eased to 80.48. SPXW options imply a 30-point (0.39%) move for today's expiry and a 79-point (1.04%) range into Friday 7 August, with that day's payrolls the primary catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,751 +0.47% | ETHEREUM ~1,864 +0.27% | IBIT 36.16 +1.46% | ETHA 14.11 +0.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Digital assets extended Monday's risk rally as US-Iran de-escalation lifted sentiment across markets, with spot holding a tight overnight range. IBIT and ETHA advanced alongside US equities, while miners led gains broadly, paced by an 8.2% move in Cifr and 8.0% in Iren.
Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF issuer to close a fund, confirming it will liquidate the $14.7 million DEFI product on 17 August after it failed to attract assets against larger rivals.

Commodities

In crude oil, October Brent traded just above USD 85 per barrel early Tuesday, bouncing from Monday’s steep sell-off to as low a USD 81.55/bbl as US President Trump called his latest offer on terms to Iran the country’s "last chance,". September WTI (front-month) was less volatile, bouncing slightly to USD 81.26 / bbl.
Gold remains mired in the middle of a tight 3,960-4,170 range that has been established over the last several weeks, with traders uninspired by the backdrop.
Silver is taking its lead more from gold than from copper, with the late rising sharply early Tuesday to USD 6.60/lb, the highest level since the June and now less than two percent below the highest level for the front contract month just below USD 6.70/lb.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rebounded slightly after Monday’s drop, with the 2-year and 10-year treasury benchmarks trading about two basis points higher from Monday’s close early Tuesday at 4.26% and 4.69% respectively. Japan’s government bond yields hit new highs for the cycle eat the front end as the 2-year JGB benchmark hit 1.57%
The Treasury lifted Q3 net borrowing guidance to $739 billion, up $68 billion; JPMorgan raised its year-end 10-year and 30-year yield targets on Fed-credibility doubts following Chair Warsh's limited guidance.

Currencies

USDJPY rebounded about 0.25% from Monday’s close to around 157.60 in early Tuesday trade, as the JPY gave back some of Monday's intervention-driven gains; Japan's Finance Ministry is estimated to have spent roughly $34 billion on Friday alone.
EURUSD was steady just above 1.1500 early Tuesday while AUDUSD managed to rebound above 0.7000 again, trading 0.7020 after Monday’s 0.6984 low.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Iran stands down, tech splits - Options Brief - 3 August 2026

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Amazon and Apple split Friday's earnings tape by more than 20 percentage points as Iran stood down from the brink over the weekend, sending oil and volatility sharply lower into Monday's open. Here is what that dispersion, and a fresh chip-sentiment reversal out of Korea, means for options positioning this week.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 15.99 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (141.23) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.02

Iran de-escalation lifts markets into the open. President Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend and confirmed talks resume today, sending Brent down more than USD 4 from Friday’s close and easing vol futures.
Big Tech earnings split Friday’s tape. Amazon jumped roughly 15% on accelerating AWS growth while Apple fell 7.4%, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly USD 358bn.
Correlation collapsed to a multi-month low. Three-month realised correlation (COR3M) slid to 9.71 as single stocks moved hard in opposite directions while the S&P 500 barely budged, up 0.70% to a record 7,489.72.
Korea adds a fresh cross-current. The KOSPI, which posted a record one-day rise Friday, pointed toward a weaker open after a new AI model out of China revived chip-sentiment jitters in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 3 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Markets turned brighter into Monday’s open after President Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend and confirmed talks resume today, a relief that followed a Friday session already split by Amazon’s earnings surge and Apple’s record single-day loss. For the broader macro picture, see Saxo’s Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News.

Market snapshot, Friday 31 July 2026 close

US (Friday 31 July close): The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.70%, and the Dow added 0.53% to 52,490.26, both records, as Amazon surged roughly 15% on accelerating AWS growth and Apple fell 7.4%, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly USD 358bn, on cautious revenue guidance; the Nasdaq Composite still finished up 1.0% at 25,373.85.
Asia (Monday open): South Korea’s KOSPI, which posted a record one-day rise Friday, pointed toward a weaker open after a new AI model out of China revived chip-sentiment jitters and pulled Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix futures lower.
Commodities: Brent fell to near USD 83.50 and WTI dipped just below USD 80 after Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend.
Volatility reset across the curve: the VIX dropped 6.44% to 15.99, VIX1D fell to 12.29 and VIX9D to 13.05, both down more than 12%, while the CBOE SKEW index held elevated near 141 and three-month realised correlation (COR3M) slid to 9.71, a multi-month low.
Market regime (rules-based read): Transitioning, per Saxo’s regime signal, with VIX at 16.0, 20-day realised volatility at 12.2% and falling, and the S&P 500 0.24% above its 50-day moving average; multiple signals disagree right now, which is the tool’s own cue to size down until direction confirms.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 3 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 31 July, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow: AMZN carried the clearest lean, with call accumulation across the October, November and December expiries shaped like stock replacement, leaving dealers modestly long deltas that could cushion pullbacks.
Index and ETF flow: At the index level, the largest confirmed flow was a SPY tail-put writing program sold well below the market, a credit-style structure that reads as income generation rather than hedging and leaves dealers long downside gamma into September and October.

Volatility surface – 3 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 15.99 (-6.44%)
VIX1D 12.29 (-13.08%) · VIX9D 13.05 (-12.12%)
VIX3M 19.02 (-2.46%) · VIX6M 21.34 (-1.25%) · VIX1Y 22.94 (-0.78%), curve in contango with the front tenors compressing fastest

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 18.02 (-0.47%), a premium of roughly two points to spot
Second-month VIX futures 19.10 (-0.78%), front-to-second ratio at 0.945

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 141.23 (+0.95%), elevated versus the 100–120 neutral zone
COR3M 9.71 (-4.80%), a multi-month low
DSPX 41.42 (-3.43%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.897, index put/call 1.007

Cross-asset volatility

OVX 63.04 (-0.63%), oil vol easing alongside the Iran de-escalation
GVZ 23.31 (-4.78%) · VXSLV 45.53 (-4.35%) · MOVE 83.02 (+7.69%)
VXN 26.00 (-5.63%) · RVX 20.27 (-4.34%) · VXD 13.80 (-4.03%) · VVIX 91.64 (-3.19%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 3 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

In our view, the market is pricing single stocks to keep diverging while the index consolidates. Three-month realised correlation at 9.71 is a multi-month low, and it follows a session in which Amazon and Apple moved more than 20 percentage points apart on the same earnings night while the S&P 500 gained less than a point. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
Front-month VIX futures at 18.02 hold a premium of roughly two points to spot, and pre-market SPXW pricing implies a smaller expected move into Friday’s payrolls report than it did a week ago. The move is derived from at-the-money option pricing and is not a forecast. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
Vol futures eased across the board as Iran war-risk premium came out of the market. VIX1D and VIX9D were both down more than 12% on Friday, a term structure move consistent with near-term event risk being priced out rather than the market’s view of the week ahead changing.
Chip-sentiment jitters out of Korea may keep single-name volatility elevated in the semiconductor complex even as index-level VIX stays low. That divergence could widen further if AI-capex headlines continue to swing sentiment day to day.
In our assessment, the combination of compressed index vol and wide single-stock dispersion favours structures that price the index and the names differently. A single directional read on the market as a whole looks less supported by the data than it did a week ago.

Today’s catalysts

Today’s calendar carries Switzerland’s July CPI print at 08:30 CET and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 CET, alongside Trump and Iranian officials resuming talks in the wake of the weekend de-escalation. Earnings continue with Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Marriott International reporting today, ahead of a heavier slate later in the week that includes AMD, Caterpillar and McDonald’s on Tuesday and Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Walt Disney on Wednesday. Friday brings the July employment report, the next major test for a market that has already been sizing down its expected move.

Korea’s chip-sentiment whiplash

South Korea’s KOSPI posted a record one-day rise on Friday, then pointed sharply lower into Monday’s open after a new AI model out of China revived doubts about the pace of AI-linked capital spending, pulling Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix futures down more than 6%.

In our view, the speed of the reversal illustrates how sensitive the semiconductor trade remains to a single headline. That is true even after recent upgrades framed July’s washout as a buying opportunity.
Investors holding concentrated exposure to the sector may want to weigh defined-risk structures such as protective collars, which trade away some further upside for a defined floor. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100 in July as the broader momentum unwind in semiconductors deepened. That rotation could continue if this week’s AI-capex headlines stay negative.

Saxo research and public reporting on Korean equities, 1–3 August 2026.

Conclusion

In our assessment, Friday’s calm index-level volatility sat on top of a violent single-stock rotation, and Monday’s relief rally on Iran de-escalation is already colliding with a fresh AI-sentiment headline out of Korea. The market’s own regime signal, flagging a Transitioning phase with mixed short-term trend, may continue to argue for defined-risk structures over outright direction until one of those threads resolves, though Friday’s payrolls report could shift the picture again. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related articles/content
Index up average stock down - Options Brief - 31 July 2026 Hawkish hold Iran flares - Options Brief - 30 July 2026 Fed day Friday gets pricier - Options Brief - 29 July 2026 Seoul halts index vol holds - Options Brief - 28 July 2026 Chips slide index shrugs - Options Brief - 27 July 2026 -- Market Quick Take - Trump calls off Iran strike as Apple posts a record slide - 3 August 2026 Market Quick Take - Chips roar back as Nasdaq snaps its skid BOJ holds - 31 July 2026

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--
Market Quick Take - Trump calls off Iran strike as Apple posts a record slide - 3 August 2026
Market Quick Take - Chips roar back as Nasdaq snaps its skid BOJ holds - 31 July 2026

More from the author
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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Coordinated JPY intervention and a cleaner AI hardware slate.

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:25:00 Z

What happens now that leverage is much lower?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

What is the Warsh Fed really about?
Nick Timiraos trying to pull some forward guidance from Fed Chair Warsh’s FOMC presser performance, especially whether the task forces will be used to “redefine the inflation challenges away”.

The JPY intervention came at an interesting time FX-positioning wise.
Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen’s look at latest COT report showing FX positioning was getting very long US dollars ahead of the recent official intervention in JPY.

The piece that started it all for Aschenbrenner’s big parlay.
Aschenbrenner’s original Situational Awareness piece that raised so many eyebrows as it confidently predicted the march to urgently allocate titanic amounts to capital in a race to achieve super-intelligence, with the urgency driven by US-China rivalry and the claim that the “free world must prevail”.

From the AI-will-end-humanity funsters
First there was the Yudkowsky/Soares book on the dangers of super-intelligent Artificial General Intelligence “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.” and then you even have cheery podcast episodes like Futurology’s “The $15 quadrillion black hole sucking humanity toward extinction”. That podcast link came from a Noema piece arguing that the recent OpenAI frontier model going rogue and hacking into Hugging Face is the first real sign of the risks of losing control of AI. The argument is that we will likely need a much worse incident to inspire a pushback against the model’s being deployed at all. By the way, here is BBC’s assessment of that hacking attack, which was described as both very amateurish and sloppy and frighteningly fast at learning and finding novel ways to hack its target.

Even if AI isn’t set to end humanity, it can be used for some very bad, no good things.
Cory Doctorow is less concerned about AI ending humanity and more concerned about the powers that be mis-using AI to concentrate corporate power, deskill labor and cut wages as humans are forced to serve as minders and gatekeepers of AI-driven tech rather than in control of the tech to empower their own lives. Here is a link to a long speech outlining the entire Reverse Centaur framework.

King of the deflationistas throws in the towel.
Don’t know if this is a contrarian moment, but until now, Lacy Hunt had fretted deflation risks for my entire professional career - and I am no spring chicken.

Chart of the Day - EURJPY since the EUR began trading.

Of course everyone will focus on USDJPY as the most traded JPY pair and the chief vehicle Japan’s Ministry of Finance uses when pushing back against JPY weakness. But a look at other JPY pairs reminds us how profoundly weak the currency is across the board, and other JPY pairs could prove even more volatile than USDJPY itself. One of the most egregiously overvalue JPY pairs in my eyes has been EURJPY, which hit its record high since the Euro began trading in the 1990’s earlier this year near 188. Already in the summer of 2024 I thought the break above the prior high from 2008 near 170 was taking EURJPY to crazy levels. Back then, the Bank of Japan “intervened” in the JPY carry trade of the time with a surprise rate hike at its July 31, 2024 meeting. This triggered a meltdown from above 175 to below 155.00 at one point. Then in 2025 and into this year, the story became one of Japan’s “uninvestible” bond market as the longest Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields showed that the country was finally exiting its multi-decade deflation and low rates era. The 30-year JGB yield benchmark, already creeping higher from early 2022 with the secular shift in global- and eventually Japanese inflation, began grinding higher from early 2023, when it traded around 1.25% to as high as 4.00% by May of this year. For perspective on what that kind of a yield rise means for the total returns for holders of long-term bonds, consider the 0.5% 2060 JGB, which has fallen from its issuance at par (100) in 2020 to a current price just below 37.0. But that doesn’t mean that the bond is going to zero. At an effective yield of 4% to maturity, that bond offers far.

Anyway, with the latest bout of intervention, including the US somewhat oddly selling euros versus the Japanese yen, EURJPY has dropped as low as 179.37 before bouncing here. By the way, I think Treasury Secretary Bessent was trying to avoid sending a message on the US dollar level by intervening in EURJPY - a way to say that this is about the excessively weak JPY, not about a strong US dollar. A more reasonable price for the EURJPY pair is something like 155-160 if the market and the authorities decide that Japan is becoming a “normal” country again with respect to inflation and monetary policy. And that would still be at the high end of the long term range.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Palantir, SpaceX and AMD earnings: artificial intelligence gets three different reality checks

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Palantir, AMD and SpaceX test three layers of artificial intelligence: software, chips and physical infrastructure.
Investors will focus on guidance, cash generation and whether large commitments are becoming real revenue.
The results can show where AI economics are strengthening, and where spending still runs ahead of returns.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often discussed as one industry. This week shows it is closer to a three-storey building.

Palantir reports after the United States market closes on 3 August 2026. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SpaceX follow on 4 August 2026. Together, they cover data software, processors, launch services, satellite connectivity and artificial intelligence.

The question is whether demand becomes durable revenue, rising profits and cash that can fund the next stage. Recent technology volatility makes that distinction less academic.

Three floors, three invoices

Palantir sits on the software floor. Its platform helps organisations connect data with artificial intelligence tools and use them in daily operations. It can add customers without building factories or rockets, giving it attractive economics when growth remains strong.

The previous quarter set a demanding benchmark, with revenue rising 85%. This week, the useful signals are customer growth, large contracts and remaining deal value, meaning potential future revenue under existing agreements. The reaction may depend on evidence that momentum remains broad and repeatable.

AMD occupies the chip floor. It designs central processing units and graphics processing units, the computing engines behind servers and artificial intelligence systems. Data-centre revenue grew 57% last quarter, while new agreements strengthened its pipeline.

The key word is conversion. Commitments only create value when systems ship, software works and margins hold. Investors will listen for product delivery, supply, customer adoption and profitability. Strong sales with weaker margins would suggest that competition is becoming more expensive.

SpaceX owns much of the wiring. Starlink provides recurring subscription revenue, while launches, Starship and the recently combined artificial intelligence business require heavy investment.

Its first post-listing earnings will help separate the cash engine from the projects attached to it. Starlink had about 10 million subscribers at the end of March, but SpaceX spent far more on artificial intelligence than on space and connectivity combined during the first quarter. Can profitable connectivity finance several expensive frontiers at once?

Source: Saxo bank internal analysis, based on company filings and investor relations materials from Palantir, AMD and SpaceX.

The number behind the headline

These companies show why “AI exposure” is not one financial category.

Palantir can disappoint through slower guidance even after excellent growth. AMD can beat sales expectations but fall if margins or future shipments weaken. SpaceX can report strong Starlink progress yet concern investors if other projects absorb cash faster than expected.

The wider implications matter. Strong AMD demand would support chip, memory and data-centre suppliers. On Wednesday 5 August, SanDisk and Western Digital will extend the same test to storage, showing whether AI-driven data growth is translating into stronger demand and pricing for flash memory and hard drives. Strong Palantir growth would suggest companies are moving from testing artificial intelligence to using it in real operations. Strong SpaceX connectivity would support satellite broadband, while heavy spending would reinforce concerns about capital intensity.

Risks

Expectations are the first risk. Warning signs include slower customer growth at Palantir, delayed shipments or weaker margins at AMD, and capital spending rising faster than Starlink cash generation at SpaceX.

Execution is the second. Palantir must turn trials into wider deployments. AMD must deliver competitive systems on schedule. SpaceX must manage several costly projects without allowing one to weaken the others.

Investor playbook

Track contracts, shipments, recognised revenue and free cash flow in that order.
Compare growth with the capital required to produce it.
Give guidance more weight than headline profit when expectations already assume rapid expansion.
Check portfolio overlap. Different AI companies may depend on the same customers, budgets and market mood.

Three floors, one foundation

This week, artificial intelligence faces three exams. Can Palantir deepen customer use, can AMD turn commitments into shipped systems, and can SpaceX fund several ambitions without exhausting its strongest cash engine?

The results will not identify one universal winner. They will show where the economics are strongest today. Palantir offers the lightest model, AMD sits in the middle, and SpaceX carries the heaviest machinery. For investors, the useful habit is to follow the cash through every floor of the building. The story may begin with intelligence, but returns still depend on who gets paid, how often, and at what cost.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Disney: high rank, cheap event

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:15:00 Z

Disney’s options screen as expensive, with a volatility rank in the seventies going into the 5 August print. Its own earnings days keep moving further than that premium pays for.

A volatility rank tells you how options are priced against their own history. It says nothing about how the share price actually behaves.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reports fiscal third-quarter results on 5 August 2026, before the US market opens (Source: Disney investor relations). The shares closed at 96.16 on 30 July, down 2.36%, leaving them 19.6% below the 52-week high and beneath both the 50-day moving average at 99.27 and the 200-day at 104.76 (Source: Saxo, 30 July 2026 close).

Disney weekly and daily, with price below the 50 and 200 period averages on both timeframes. Source: SaxoTrader. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

Thirty-day implied volatility reads 34.4%, an implied volatility rank of 72.3 (Source: Saxo, 31 July 2026). A rank in the seventies is usually where a premium seller starts looking. In our view that may mislead here, because rank compares implied volatility only against its own twelve-month range, not against the way the underlying moves.

What the options market is pricing

A common way to estimate the market-implied move is to add the at-the-money call premium and the at-the-money put premium for the expiry that captures the event. The combined straddle price is a rough proxy for how much movement option buyers are paying for.

The 7 August 2026 expiry is the first spanning the release. At the 96 strike the call was quoted around 3.29 and the put around 3.10, a straddle of roughly 6.39, or about 6.65% of the share price (Source: Saxo option chain, 31 July 2026, indicative pre-open). The premium sits almost entirely on that expiry.

7 August 2026, 7 days: at-the-money implied volatility 56% to 59%
14 August 2026, 14 days: 43% to 45%
21 August 2026, 21 days: 37% to 41%
18 September 2026, 49 days: about 31%

Source: Saxo option chain, 31 July 2026, indicative pre-open.

Set that against how Disney trades. Realised volatility is 28.7% over the past 30 sessions, 27.1% over 90 and 25.7% over the past year (Source: Saxo price history, 30 July 2026). Between events this is a quiet share price. Its earnings days are not.

6 May 2026, Q2 FY26: +7.54%
2 February 2026, Q1 FY26: -7.40%
13 November 2025, Q4 FY25: -7.75%
6 August 2025, Q3 FY25: -2.66%
7 May 2025, Q2 FY25: +10.76%
5 February 2025, Q1 FY25: -2.44%

Source: Saxo price history, close to close on each report date. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

The average absolute move across those six reports is 6.42% and the median 7.47%, against 6.65% implied today. Four of the six exceeded what is currently priced, and the three most recent each moved 7.4% or more. In our view that reconciles the two readings. The rank may read high because Disney’s baseline is unusually low, rather than because its event premium is rich.

Volatility view: buying the move rather than selling it

A trader who finds that persuasive needs no direction, only enough travel either way. A reverse iron condor buys a put and a call either side of the money and sells a further put and call to cut the cost, so the long options carry the exposure and the short options cap the payoff.

The following examples are hypothetical and for educational use only; they are not advice or trade recommendations.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Buy 1 7 August 2026 95 put (about 2.75)
Buy 1 7 August 2026 97 call (about 2.70)
Sell 1 7 August 2026 89 put (about 0.77)
Sell 1 7 August 2026 105 call (about 0.70)
Net debit: approximately 4.05 per spread, or 405 USD, against a quoted mid of 3.98 = 2.75 paid for the 95 put, plus 2.70 paid for the 97 call, less 0.77 taken in on the 89 put, less 0.70 taken in on the 105 call
Maximum risk: 405 USD, if Disney settles between 95 and 97 on 7 August
Maximum profit: 395 USD above 105, or 195 USD below 89
Break-even at expiry: approximately 90.95 and 101.05

All figures are hypothetical and for education only. Risk: the maximum loss is the net debit paid, 405 USD, and short legs carry early-assignment risk. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for full details.

The whole 405 USD debit is lost if Disney does very little, and that buys break-evens at -5.42% and +5.09%, both inside the 6.65% being priced, so the position may profit if the move merely matches what is implied. The wings are uneven, 6 points on the put side against 8, which is why the upside pays 395 USD and the downside 195 USD.

Strategy insight – paying for movement. Implied volatility collapses once a result is public, so a modest move can leave a long-premium structure worth less than it cost even when the direction was right; against that, the position may benefit if Disney travels beyond either break-even, with loss capped at the debit paid. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

Reverse iron condor on the 7 August expiry. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: SaxoTrader. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

The opposite case: selling the event premium instead

The argument can be wrong. Six reports is a small sample, two of them moved less than 3%, and a share price 19.6% off its high has arguably priced in much disappointment.

That side can be taken against a longer-dated option rather than outright. A call calendar sells the 100 call expiring 7 August and buys the 100 call expiring 18 September. The short leg carries roughly 55% implied volatility because it contains the print, the long leg about 31%, and that 24-point gap is the idea.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Sell 1 7 August 2026 100 call (about 1.62)
Buy 1 18 September 2026 100 call (about 3.03)
Net debit: approximately 1.50 per spread, or 150 USD, against a quoted mid of 1.41 = 3.03 paid for the September call, less 1.62 taken in on the August call
Maximum risk: 150 USD, the debit paid
Estimated profit zone: approximately 94.34 to 107.09 at the 7 August expiry, modelled with September implied volatility falling to 27%
Estimated peak value: around 232 USD near the 100 strike on the same assumption

All figures are hypothetical and for education only. Risk: the maximum loss is the net debit paid, 150 USD, profit and break-even are model-dependent, and the short leg carries early-assignment risk. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for full details.

The 150 USD debit is lost if Disney moves far from 100 either way, and in exchange the position may gain if the share price finishes near the strike. None of those profit figures is fixed at entry, because the front-expiry value depends on what the back-month option is worth that day.

Strategy insight – two expiries and two volatilities. A long calendar is net long vega, so the September leg may lose value if implied volatility falls across the curve after the result, even while decay on the short leg works in the position’s favour; the reward for that second exposure is a defined 150 USD risk instead of the open-ended risk of a naked short call. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

Call calendar modelled at the 7 August expiry under two back-month volatility assumptions. Modelled, not a platform quote. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

Directional view: a move larger than the one priced

The third route takes a side. Consensus looks for adjusted earnings near 1.86 US dollars per share on revenue of 25.4 billion US dollars (Source: Bloomberg, 30 July 2026), and the shares have underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 12.5 percentage points since the May report.

A bull call spread buys the 97 call and sells the 105 call, so the long call carries the upside while the short call cuts the cost and caps the gain. The strike choice matters. The 6.65% implied move puts Disney near 102.55, so a short strike at 105 means full value requires a larger move than the one priced.

Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)

Buy 1 7 August 2026 97 call (about 2.70)
Sell 1 7 August 2026 105 call (about 0.70)
Net debit: approximately 2.21 per spread, or 221 USD, against a quoted mid of 2.00 = 2.70 paid for the 97 call, less 0.70 taken in on the 105 call
Maximum risk: 221 USD
Maximum profit: 579 USD, at 105 or above
Break-even at expiry: approximately 99.21

All figures are hypothetical and for education only. Risk: the maximum loss is the net debit paid, 221 USD, and the short leg carries early-assignment risk. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for full details.

The 221 USD debit is lost in full if Disney closes at or below 97 on 7 August, and against that the structure may return up to 579 USD if the shares reach 105. Break-even at 99.21 needs a rise of 3.17%, calculated as (99.21 minus 96.16) divided by 96.16; maximum value needs 9.19%, exceeded only by the May 2025 report in two years.

Strategy insight – cheap is not the same as likely. A payoff of roughly 2.6 to one is available because the market assigns a low probability to the outcome that pays it, and the whole debit is at risk in every other case, including a rally that stops short of the break-even. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo’s pricing overview for costs and applicable charges.

Bull call spread on the 7 August expiry. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: SaxoTrader. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.

Before placing the trade, check:

Bid and ask spreads. Every figure above is a mid price from indicative pre-open quotes on 31 July 2026, and several of these strikes quote wide enough to change the economics at entry. Reprice from the live chain.
Volume and open interest at the specific strikes, particularly in the 7 August weekly.
That Disney reports before the US open on 5 August, so the reaction falls in that session rather than overnight after it.
Implied volatility against realised volatility, which is the question this article puts.
An exit plan defined before entry, especially for the calendar, where value at the front expiry is not fixed.
Assignment risk on every short leg.

Assignment risk note: Because Disney options are American-style, short legs can be assigned before expiry if they move into the money, particularly near expiry or an ex-dividend date. Traders should monitor short options and understand the platform’s assignment process before entering a position.

Final thoughts

Volatility rank is a useful screen and a poor conclusion. It answers whether options are expensive against their own history, not how much the underlying actually moves. On Disney those answers diverge, and in our view the divergence appears to favour the buyer of the event rather than the seller.

None of which makes the move happen. Each of the three structures carries a defined maximum loss that is also its single most likely outcome. What the options market offers before a result is not a forecast but a price on a range of outcomes, and the useful response is to judge whether it looks fair, then structure the position so being wrong costs a known amount. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor, and future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - Trump calls off Iran strike as Apple posts a record slide - 3 August 2026

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Markets in brighter mood Monday as crude oil prices drop after US president Trump chose not to strike Iran at the weekend.
Equities: Amazon's surge offset Apple's record slide Friday as futures rally Monday on Iran de-escalation.
Volatility: Vol futures ease as Iran de-escalation lifts markets; payrolls Friday is the next test.
Digital Assets: Crypto extended Friday's tech-led slide as ETF outflows returned, though spot losses stayed comparatively contained.
Commodities: Crude oil punched sharply lower on US not moving against Iran. Gold steady.
Fixed Income: US treasury yields roll back lower with crude oil prices.
Currencies: Another surge in Japanese yen strength Monday after US and Japan confirmed coordinated intervention to strengthen the currency.

Macro

Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume today after he canceled a planned military strike over the weekend following appeals from allies like Saudi Arabia to prioritize negotiations. He also renewed his call to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said over the weekend that Japan will coordinate Japanese yen policy with the Bank of Japan, sparking further JPY volatility and a jump in Japan’s short term government bond yields Monday.
Australia’s Cotality Home Value Index fell 0.7% in July 2026, the sharpest drop since December 2022, as higher borrowing costs and weak sentiment hit demand. Sydney and Melbourne led declines (down 1.4% and 1.2%), with Brisbane and Adelaide also falling, while Perth inched up 0.1%. Regional prices slipped 0.2%, their first drop since January 2023, though national prices were still 5.3% higher than a year earlier.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 55.2 in July 2026 from 54.0, the highest since February, with gains across all groups. Still, sentiment was 11% below a year earlier amid concerns over high prices. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.2%, and long-run expectations stayed at 3.3%.
Year-ahead US inflation expectations fell to 4.2% in July 2026 from 4.6% in June, a second straight decline and the lowest since March, but still above February’s 3.4% and any 2024 reading. The five-year outlook held at 3.3%, slightly above the 2.8%–3.2% range seen through 2024.
Canada’s GDP is expected to grow 0.2% in June 2026, implying 0.8% Q2 growth, as gains in wholesale, finance, insurance, and retail offset declines in utilities and agriculture. May GDP rose 0.3%, with goods output up 0.6% on stronger oil and gas and services up 0.2%.
Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.8%, above the ECB’s 2% target, mainly due to energy inflation jumping to 10%. Core inflation inched up to 2.5%, with most major economies seeing faster price growth except Italy, where it dipped slightly.
Germany’s jobless rate rose to 6.4% in July 2026 from 6.3%, above forecasts, as unemployment grew by 6,000 to 2.99 million. The labor market is weakening after the Iran war shock, while inflation climbed to 2.8% on higher energy costs, darkening the outlook despite stronger‑than‑expected Q2 GDP.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Switzerland Jul. CPI
1400 – US Jul. ISM Manufacturing

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

Monday: Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International
Tuesday: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 0.6%, as Amazon surged around 15% on strong earnings, offsetting a 7.4% slide in Apple, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly $358bn, on chip-related concerns. US equity index futures pointed higher Monday, S&P 500 futures up around 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.9%, on Iran deal optimism, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100 in July as the semiconductor momentum unwind deepened. The question dominating Wall Street heading into August, per Bespoke Investment Group, is whether the AI-linked weakness marks a lasting inflection point or just a rebalancing event, with earnings still coming in strong even as valuations get tested. Elsewhere, ExxonMobil and Chevron directed windfall profits toward debt reduction rather than bigger buybacks, while Reddit disappointed on the absence of new data-licensing deals and Roblox missed on daily active users.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 hit a record in July, up 1.2% on the month for a fourth straight winning month, pulling ahead of the S&P 500 year-to-date on its lighter tech weighting and heavier value/bank composition. UK value and income names also outperformed as global investors rotated out of crowded AI trades. Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed 0.9% higher Monday, tracking the broader risk-on tone from the Iran de-escalation.
Asia: Nikkei futures pointed lower, with traders on alert for further yen intervention, Kioxia may face pressure after its profit forecast missed. The Kospi, which posted a record single-day rise Friday, looked set to struggle Monday as Samsung and SK Hynix shares pointed lower after a new DeepSeek model weighed on memory sentiment. Morgan Stanley upgraded Korean equities to overweight, citing 36% upside to a 9,000 target following the "leverage washout." The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5% Friday, while Hong Kong and Southeast Asian markets are expected to take their cue from the Iran deal optimism and softer oil prices.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Front-month VIX futures eased to 18.02 as Trump's fresh US-Iran talks and a shelved strike sent Brent down over 7%, even as a new DeepSeek model revived chip-selloff jitters that knocked the Kospi almost 5%. The S&P 500 closed Friday up 0.7% at 7,489.72; cash VIX settled at 15.99.
The curve held in contango, SKEW elevated at 141.23, MOVE up to 83.0. Pre-market SPXW pricing implies a same-day move of 41 points (0.55%) and 92 points (1.23%) to Friday 7 August, both down from last Monday's 53pt/0.71% and 134pt/1.81% on a same day-count basis, with Friday's payrolls the catalyst.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~62,877 -1.0% | ETHEREUM ~1,858 -1.3% | IBIT 35.64 -2.89% | ETHA 14.07 -3.03% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

Digital assets extended Friday's tech-driven pullback into the weekend, with bitcoin and ether spot easing modestly in thin trade. Crypto-linked equities bore the brunt of Friday's session, IBIT and ETHA both down around 3%, while miners led losses, Riot down 8.8% and Coinbase off 10.6%.
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $265 million of net outflows on Friday, IBIT alone losing $123 million, ending a brief two-day inflow run and underscoring how fragile the institutional bid remains. See Saxo's pricing overview for the costs and applicable charges on IBIT and ETHA.

Commodities

Crude oil traded sharply lower Monday after US President Trump chose not to pursue further attacks against Iran over the weekend, though prices rebounded from intraday lows. October Brent steadied near USD 83.50 per barrel, down over four dollars from Friday’s close, but almost two dollars higher from 81.55 lows. September WTI crude oil traded early Monday in Europe just below USD 80 per barrel after an overnight low below 79.
Gold and silver remain rangebound, ignoring the volatility in the fixed income and currency markets late last week and overnight. Gold traded up slightly from Friday’s close early Monday near USD 4,070 per ounce, while silver trade nearly a dollar higher at USD 58.55 per ounce, though still within the choppy 56.50-60.00 range of last week.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasuries rallied on sharply lower crude oil prices after Trump chose not to move to strike Iran over the weekend. The benchmark 2-year US treasury yield drifted back four basis points toward 4.25% early Monday, with the 10-year yield also about four basis points lower and below 4.70% after closing at the highest level since early 2025 on Friday.
Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said that that the Ministry of Finance will coordinate yen policy with the Bank of Japan, raising the risk of a BoJ rate hike. The benchmark 2-year Japanese government bond yield jumped five basis points Monday to trade above 1.55%, the highest level for t the cycle. Thirty-year JGB yields were close to unchanged from Friday’s closing levels near 4.0%.

Currencies

USDJPY fell as low as 155.23 Monday before rebounding to the 156.50 area (and versus Friday’s close near 157.40) as the US and Japan confirmed the first joint intervention to strengthen the JPY since after the 2011 earthquake in Japan and after top currency official Mimura said that yen policy will be coordinated with the Bank of Japan. Authorities reportedly sold euros as well as dollars to move the JPY broadly higher, with EURJPY at 180.50 and GBPJPY at 210.80.
The USD traded modestly lower in late Asian trading hours Monday against most major currencies (EURUSD at 1.1535 GBPUSD at 1.3470, AUDUSD at 0.7030) but had firmed from its lowest levels earlier in the session as USDJPY bounced from lows.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

When euphoria meets reality: Lessons from the July KOSPI crash

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 02:00:00 Z

Key points:

The KOSPI selloff and the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI fund tell the same story: when strong conviction is combined with excessive concentration and leverage, even a temporary market correction can quickly spiral into forced selling and heavy losses.
A compelling investment theme is not enough. AI remains a powerful long-term opportunity, but investors still need to pay attention to valuation, position sizing, diversification and the risks of chasing momentum.
Long-term investing is about surviving market cycles. The goal is not to maximise returns in every rally, but to manage risk well enough to stay invested and benefit from the opportunities that follow.

The recent collapse in South Korea's stock market has been one of the most dramatic reminders of how quickly market euphoria can turn into financial stress.

The KOSPI has fallen around 25% in July, making it one of the fastest corrections in the index's history. At one point, the market lost 16% in just two trading days, triggering repeated circuit breakers as leveraged positions were forced to unwind.

The same dynamic played out at the institutional level.

AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, had become one of Wall Street's standout performers. The fund reportedly grew from less than US$1 billion at launch to around US$45 billion in assets, driven by concentrated investments in AI infrastructure companies such as SK Hynix, CoreWeave, Nebius and SanDisk.

Many of these positions were financed using borrowed money. Although the fund has not disclosed its exact level of leverage, falling share prices triggered margin calls, forcing it to liquidate most of its public equity portfolio. The fund lost 67% in July alone before subsequently removing all leverage from its public equity positions.

Neither of these events means the AI investment story is over.

Instead, they highlight a more important lesson: how you build your portfolio can matter just as much as the investment theme itself.

Five lessons every investor should remember

1. Don't confuse a great theme with a great investment

AI remains one of the most important long-term investment opportunities of this decade. But even the strongest themes can become crowded, expensive and vulnerable to corrections.

Take action: Before adding to a position, ask whether you're investing because the long-term fundamentals have improved—or simply because the price has been rising.

2. Build conviction—but avoid excessive concentration

High-conviction ideas deserve meaningful allocations, but no single stock, sector or market should determine the outcome of your portfolio.

Take action: Review your portfolio regularly. If one investment or theme has grown to dominate your holdings after a strong rally, consider rebalancing back to your target allocation.

3. Use leverage to support your strategy—not become your strategy

Leverage can amplify returns, but it also amplifies losses. More importantly, it increases the risk of being forced to sell during periods of market stress.

Take action: Only use margin if you could comfortably withstand a sharp correction without facing a margin call or needing to sell investments at depressed prices.

4. Spend as much time on portfolio construction as stock selection

Owning good companies is only part of successful investing. Position sizing, diversification and liquidity determine how well a portfolio can withstand periods of volatility.

Take action: Diversify across sectors, regions and investment themes, and ensure your portfolio isn't dependent on one market or one investment idea.

5. Focus on staying invested, not winning every rally

Long-term wealth is built through compounding across multiple market cycles—not by perfectly timing every market move.

Take action: Before making any investment, ask yourself one simple question: Could I hold this position through a 20–30% correction without changing my long-term plan? If the answer is no, your position may be too large.

The bottom line

The KOSPI correction doesn't mean the AI story is over. Nor does the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund.

Both remind us that a strong investment theme cannot compensate for poor risk management.

The most successful investors are not those who take the biggest risks during a bull market. They are the ones who manage risk well enough to stay invested when markets become uncomfortable.

Because in investing, the greatest risk is often not being wrong about the opportunity—it's taking so much risk that you don't survive long enough to benefit from it.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Index up, average stock down - Options Brief - 31 July 2026

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:30:00 Z

Microsoft added a record USD 450bn of market value in one session and pulled the index up 1.66%. The average S&P 500 member still finished lower, and the volatility surface noticed before the tape did.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | VIX 17.09 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: MODERATE (139.90) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.60

Breadth did not follow the index. The S&P 500 rose 1.66% to 7,437.63 while its equal-weighted version fell 0.20%. Microsoft added 15.5% and Meta lost 7.95% in the same session.
The front end unwound. VIX fell 17.3% to 17.09 and VIX1D dropped 27.3% to 14.14, handing back most of this week’s correction premium in a single session.
Premium came out for the first time this week. Index options price 143 points into next Friday’s expiry, against 171 yesterday for the same expiry. Flat volatility and the clock alone would have left roughly 158.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 31 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

A Microsoft cloud beat set off a chip-led rebound that snapped the Nasdaq’s six-day losing streak and carried into a record Asian session, while the Bank of Japan held at 1.00% after a suspected intervention in the yen. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Chips roar back as Nasdaq snaps its skid, BOJ holds, 31 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Thursday 30 July 2026 close

US (Thursday 30 July close): the S&P 500 gained 1.66% to 7,437.63 and the Nasdaq 100 3.36% to 28,106.35, both ending a six-day losing streak, with the Dow up 1.2% to 52,208. Microsoft rose 15.5%, its best day since October 2008, adding a record roughly USD 450bn in market value after Azure growth accelerated to 43% year on year. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained more than 9%. Against that, the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.20%, Meta lost 7.95% and communication services dropped 2.68%.
Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.77% to 649.96 on a heavy earnings day, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.53%, DAX +0.60% to 25,612, CAC 40 +0.92%. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.09%.
Asia, Friday morning: the KOSPI opened roughly 14% higher near 6,372, with SK Hynix and Samsung both up more than 20%, and the Nikkei 225 added about 5%. Hong Kong was close to flat, CSI 300 +1.24%.
Commodities and rates: October Brent eased toward USD 85 after Thursday’s high above USD 89, and September WTI traded near USD 81.60. Gold slipped below USD 4,100, still inside the range of the past six weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 4.65% and the 30-year drifted to 5.19%, away from the 19-year high set after the FOMC meeting. Costs and charges apply to ETF trades; see Saxo pricing for full details.
Market regime (rules based read): Transitioning, mixed signals. VIX 17.09, 20-day realised volatility 11.9% and falling, S&P 500 0.42% below its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 31 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 30 July, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

Single-name flow: the cleanest opening interest sat on the call side, in long-dated in-the-money strikes on the session’s winners, which is the shape of stock replacement rather than fresh directional risk. Put premium was larger in aggregate but mostly deep in-the-money and printed at mid, and in our view that reads as rolling and financing rather than bought protection.
Sector and ETF flow: long-dated call demand in index and country ETFs sat alongside dated downside in the semiconductor and credit ETFs, with nearer-dated premium sold against it. The pattern may suggest protection being bought at the long end and funded at the front.

Volatility surface – 31 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

VIX spot 17.09 (-17.28%)
VIX1D 14.14 (-27.30%) · VIX9D 14.85 (-27.13%), both now well below the 30-day
VIX3M 19.50 (-9.30%) · VIX6M 21.61 (-6.29%) · VIX1Y 23.12 (-4.03%), an upward slope that steepens through the long end

VIX futures

Front-month VIX futures 18.60 (-0.91%), a 1.51 point premium to spot, against a 0.61 point discount yesterday
Second-month VIX futures 19.57 (-0.55%), front-to-second ratio at 0.950, deeper contango than yesterday’s 0.980

Skew and correlation

CBOE SKEW 139.90 (+0.25%), essentially unchanged and still far above the 100 to 120 neutral zone
COR3M 10.20 (-21.48%), the 3-month implied correlation across S&P 500 constituents
DSPX 42.89 (-1.11%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.887, index put/call 0.996

Other vol measures

VVIX 94.66 (-13.53%) · MOVE 77.09 (+3.93%)
VXN 27.55 (-10.67%), holding a 1.61 ratio to VIX, up 8.00% on the session
GVZ 24.48 (-0.65%) · OVX 63.44 (-6.14%) · RVX 21.19 (-11.52%) · VXD 14.38 (-16.59%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 31 July 2026.

What the market is pricing

In our view the market removed premium for the first time this week. Yesterday’s reading for next Friday’s expiry was 171 points with seven sessions remaining. Flat volatility and the passage of time alone would leave about 158 points today, and index options are pricing 143 points (1.91%). Both figures are derived from at-the-money option-implied pricing rather than a forecast. Three consecutive sessions of premium building reversed in one. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
The near-dated range has compressed hard. Index options price roughly 50 points (0.68%) into today’s expiry, and VIX1D at 14.14 now sits 2.95 points below the 30-day VIX after a week spent above it. That gap may indicate participants treat this week’s macro and earnings cluster as behind them.
Correlation read. COR3M at 10.20 after a 21.48% one-day fall, alongside DSPX at 42.89, is consistent with a market pricing calm at the index level and movement at the single-name level at the same time. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
The level reset, the shape did not. SKEW closed at 139.90, up 0.25%, while VIX fell 17.28%, so the relative price of downside strikes against at-the-money is where it was during the selloff. Bond volatility did not join the reset, with MOVE up 3.93% to 77.09.

An index that moved without its members

Three-month implied correlation across S&P 500 constituents fell 21.48% to 10.20, while the dispersion index held near 42.89. Those two figures describe the same condition from opposite ends: large expected moves in individual companies, small expected moves in the index that holds them.

Thursday delivered exactly that. Microsoft rose 15.5% and Meta fell 7.95% in the same session, technology gained 5.50% while communication services lost 2.68%, and the equal-weighted index finished lower while the cap-weighted version gained 1.66%.

For anyone positioning in options the distinction matters, because index volatility and single-stock volatility stopped moving together. VIX fell 17.28%, yet the Nasdaq 100 volatility index widened its ratio to VIX by 8.00% to 1.61. In our view that combination may argue that what is left of this week’s risk sits at the single-name level rather than in the index. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.

Today’s catalysts

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference has already run in Tokyo. The US Q2 employment cost index lands at 14:30 CET, the July Chicago PMI at 15:45 CET, and the final July University of Michigan sentiment reading at 16:00 CET. ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Moderna, Cboe Global Markets and Kioxia report today, closing a heavy earnings week.

Conclusion

In our assessment the story this morning sits in where the volatility came out, rather than in the size of the rebound. The index-level reset was close to total, with VIX, VIX1D and implied correlation all sharply lower, while the Nasdaq volatility premium widened and the skew of the distribution barely moved. That mix may suggest the market has priced this week’s macro cluster as resolved without concluding that the gap between individual names is finished. Today’s data lands into a tape that has already given back most of its hedges, and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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--
Market Quick Take - Chips roar back as Nasdaq snaps its skid BOJ holds - 31 July 2026
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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Apple and Amazon earnings: strong demand, scarce chips, different rewards

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Strong demand helped both companies, but supply and execution shaped the market reaction.
Amazon showed clearer returns from artificial intelligence spending, while Apple faced shortages and slower services growth.
The market rewards visible returns on investment and punishes bottlenecks that delay sales or weaken margins.

On 30 July 2026, Apple and Amazon reported strong quarters and received very different verdicts. Amazon’s shares rose in late trading, while Apple’s fell.

Both companies reported healthy demand. Amazon showed that its huge artificial intelligence spending is feeding faster cloud growth. Apple showed strong iPhone and Mac sales, but warned that component shortages would restrict future growth.

One shortage, two business models

Apple sells devices and then earns further revenue from services such as the App Store, iCloud and Apple Music. Amazon runs a large retail platform, but most of its operating profit comes from Amazon Web Services, or AWS, which rents computing power to businesses.

Both companies depend on scarce chips, memory and data-centre equipment. Yet the same shortage affects them differently.

Amazon buys this equipment to create capacity that customers can rent repeatedly. Apple needs many of the same components to manufacture products that consumers buy once, even if those devices later support valuable services.

Amazon can show rising demand for the capacity it is building. Apple risks delaying sales when it cannot make enough devices. A shortage is easier to tolerate when customers are already queuing to rent the finished infrastructure.

Amazon shows the receipt

AWS revenue grew 37% from a year earlier, its fifth consecutive quarter of faster growth. Amazon also delivered solid growth in online retail and advertising.

The company raised expected 2026 capital spending to 220 billion USD. Capital spending is money used for long-term assets such as data centres, chips and warehouses. Most of the increase will support artificial intelligence infrastructure.

That spending pushed free cash flow below zero over the past twelve months. Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and funding long-term investments. Normally, that would worry investors. This time, faster AWS growth suggested that the money is not merely disappearing into a very expensive building site.

The lesson also applies to Microsoft, Alphabet and the wider artificial intelligence supply chain. Large spending plans receive a warmer response when growth, demand and profits improve alongside them.

Apple’s quarter was better than its forecast

Apple’s reported quarter was strong. Total revenue grew 16%, iPhone revenue rose 22% and Mac revenue increased 29%. Demand for its main products remains healthy.

The concern was what comes next. Apple expects revenue growth of 9% to 11% in the September quarter, below the more than 12% growth expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Shortages are affecting processors and memory, while services growth is expected to slow.

This matters because Apple relies on two engines. Hardware brings users into the ecosystem. Services then create recurring revenue from that installed base. Strong device sales help, but weaker services growth reduces the quality of the mix.

Apple also shows that a lighter artificial intelligence spending strategy offers no complete shelter from the boom. It may build fewer data centres than its peers, but it still competes for many of the same chips and memory components. It avoided one large bill, only to meet the shortage at another door.

Risks to watch

For Amazon, the main risk is that spending continues to rise faster than cloud revenue. Investors should watch AWS growth, capacity use and whether free cash flow begins to recover.

For Apple, warning signs include longer delivery times, further product price increases and weaker services growth. Persistent shortages could delay sales, while higher prices may test consumer demand.

Across the sector, memory prices remain important. If costs stay high, hardware makers face margin pressure, while cloud companies may need more spending to deliver the same capacity.

Investor playbook

Separate demand from delivery. Strong orders matter less when supply cannot reach customers.
Track spending against revenue growth, not spending alone.
Watch recurring revenue quality, especially services, cloud and advertising.
Diversify across beneficiaries and customers of the same infrastructure cycle.

The physical bill behind digital growth

Apple and Amazon sell very different things, but their results point to the same reality. Artificial intelligence is not floating quietly in the cloud. It requires chips, memory, electricity, buildings and careful execution.

Amazon received credit because its spending produced faster cloud growth. Apple received less patience because shortages weakened the outlook and services lost momentum. Neither reaction guarantees what happens next.

For investors, the useful question is not which company spends more. It is whether management can turn scarce physical resources into durable customer value and rising cash generation. The digital economy still runs on software, but somebody must first find the parts, build the machines and pay the electricity bill.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence UKMustRead