Saxo News & Research - Articles

Energy scarcity powers commodities index towards a record high

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Energy drives the commodity rally: Crude and refined products lead weekly gains as the US-Iran conflict and tight physical supply keep risk premiums elevated.
Refined fuels highlight the severity of the squeeze: European gasoil has surged 123% this year, with the total return reaching 185% as tight supply adds a substantial positive roll contribution.
Precious metals rebound as rate fears ease: Waller's comments triggered lower yields and a weaker dollar, while strong gold ETF and central-bank demand continue to provide underlying support.
Agriculture cools after a powerful rally: Crowded positioning magnified profit-taking, although Black Sea disruption and weather risks remain unresolved.

The commodity sector is heading towards another record weekly closing high, supported by continued strength across energy markets as geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and tight physical markets continue to outweigh concerns about higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. In addition, recent rate-hike worries have faded, while the dollar has turned lower, primarily driven by renewed Japanese yen strength.

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance above 34%. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, gaining around 6%, while industrial metals have recorded a modest advance. Precious metals are close to unchanged following a late-week rebound, while agriculture has retreated following four consecutive weeks of gains that last month saw the sector deliver the strongest monthly return in 12 years.

The contrasting performances underline a key theme across commodities this year: markets facing the greatest physical supply constraints continue to attract the strongest support, while sectors where speculative positioning has become stretched remain vulnerable to sharp corrections when the news flow changes.

One week total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results

Energy tightness keeps crude and products in the lead

Crude oil trades steady following a three-session rally that has propelled energy to the top of this week's performance table. Brent is up around 8%, followed by WTI and diesel at around 7%, as renewed fighting between the US and Iran keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

Brent reached a six-week high above USD 95 per barrel after renewed US strikes on Iran increased concerns about further disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. While oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, volumes remain constrained and the threat of renewed disruption continues to hang over a waterway that normally handles around one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.

The scale of this year's energy rally becomes even more striking when looking beyond outright prices. Brent has risen almost 56% this year, but tight supply and the resulting positive roll yield have lifted the return for a long-only investor to around 93%.

Refined products have delivered even more spectacular returns. European gasoil futures, the main European benchmark for diesel and other middle distillates, have risen 123% in price terms and around 185% on a total-return basis. The combination of Middle Eastern disruption, the Russia-Ukraine war and limited refining flexibility has created an acute shortage of products at a time when crude supply itself remains constrained.

The strength of refined products also highlights an increasingly important distinction: having sufficient crude oil globally does not necessarily mean having the right fuels available in the right locations. Refinery capacity, product inventories and trade flows have therefore become increasingly important price drivers.

OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday, with Reuters reporting that the group is expected to leave its October production policy unchanged after completing the unwinding of one layer of earlier production cuts. With geopolitical disruptions preventing several producers from fully translating higher quotas into additional exports, the group's ability to influence near-term prices has arguably diminished.

Brent crude's roller coaster ride continues - Source: Saxo

Gold rebounds as rate-hike fears ease

Precious metals endured another volatile week, with gold staging a rebound after an earlier correction driven primarily by long liquidation, rising bond yields and renewed expectations of another US rate hike.

Gold jumped as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce, its biggest intraday gain since 19 August, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favour leaving rates unchanged this month if incoming data confirms that inflation pressures are cooling. His comments reduced the probability of a September hike from around 65% to roughly 50%, triggering lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and renewed demand for bullion.

The speed of the recovery supports the view that the recent correction was primarily about reducing stretched positioning rather than investors fundamentally abandoning gold. Open interest in COMEX futures declined during the sell-off, while investment demand outside futures remains firm.

Notably, the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund attracted USD 1.41 billion in a single session, its biggest inflow since January, helping lift total global ETF holdings to around 3,095 tonnes, a six-month high. Central-bank purchases meanwhile continue to provide an important structural source of demand.

Attention now turns to next week's US August CPI report, which could have an outsized impact on both rate expectations and gold. Waller explicitly linked his September view to the incoming inflation data, making the release an important test for markets after several weeks of rising yields.

From a technical perspective, gold's rebound has brought the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,534, back into focus. A sustained break above this level would strengthen the recovery signal and potentially encourage fresh momentum buying.

Industrial metals remain resilient

Industrial metals have meanwhile continued to show surprising resilience despite higher global borrowing costs and periods of renewed dollar strength.

Supply constraints remain the dominant supportive force, particularly across copper and zinc, where tight availability and disruptions have offset concerns about demand and higher funding costs. Zinc recently reached a four-year high, while copper continues to trade close to historically elevated levels.

The broader message is that industrial metals are increasingly behaving as supply-constrained physical commodities rather than simply proxies for Chinese economic growth. Electrification, grid investment and the rapid expansion of power-intensive infrastructure continue to support the longer-term demand outlook, while supply has struggled to respond quickly enough.

Agriculture takes a breather

Agriculture has moved in the opposite direction this week following four consecutive weeks of strong gains. The recent rally had driven speculative positioning sharply higher, leaving several markets vulnerable to profit-taking when supportive headlines began to fade.

Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in our weekly “Commitment of Traders” report, the combined managed-money net long jumped 546k contracts in a two-week period to 25 August, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years, and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, with the combined position having been close to neutral only a few months ago.

Wheat provides the clearest example. Prices retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, prompting traders to remove some of the geopolitical premium built up during the recent surge. Yet the physical disruption has not disappeared. Asian importers have recently purchased at least 500,000 tonnes of Australian and Argentine wheat to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes, reportedly paying sizeable premiums to secure alternative supply.

Elsewhere, cocoa and coffee have also come under pressure as improving near-term supply expectations encouraged profit-taking, while cotton has weakened amid subdued demand. Sugar has been relatively resilient, supported by expectations that the global balance could tighten again during the coming season.

After the scale of the recent agriculture rally, some consolidation was probably inevitable. The underlying risks from Black Sea disruption, extreme weather and El Niño have not disappeared, but the rapid build-up of speculative longs means markets have become more sensitive to even modest changes in the fundamental outlook.

Chicago wheat futures correct lower after meeting resistance near USD 8 per bushel - Source: Saxo

Scarcity remains the common thread

Overall, commodities remain supported by supply constraints that are particularly visible across energy and parts of the industrial metals sector. The BCOM Total Return Index heading towards a record weekly closing high despite corrections across agriculture and precious metals illustrates just how strong these forces have become.

At the same time, this week's sharp reversals in gold and agriculture provide a reminder that positioning matters. Markets can remain fundamentally tight while still experiencing sizeable corrections when speculative exposure becomes crowded.

For now, energy remains firmly in the driving seat, with the combination of geopolitical risk, constrained supply and exceptionally strong refined-product markets providing the main engine behind the commodity sector's push into record territory.

The chart below shows the performance of the BCOM Total Return Index, in this case tracked by the USD 4.6 billion Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF, one of several ETFs tracking the BCOMTR Index.

For information purposes only and not intended as a specific investment recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future returns.

The BCOM Index heading for a record weekly closing high - Source: Saxo

Related articles/content
3 Sept 2026: Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns 2 Sept 2026: The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it 1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates 29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026 28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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3 Sept 2026: Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns
2 Sept 2026: The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it
1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates
29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026
28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Agriculture Copper Zinc Gold Silver Wheat

Big stakes for USDJPY over US jobs report.

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:48:00 Z

Also, Waller dovishness confuses after hawkish Warsh.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

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Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Europe built the car industry. Can it survive the next version?

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

European car stocks look cheap because investors are questioning future margins, not simply today’s sales.
China’s slowdown is pushing its carmakers overseas, increasing pressure on European prices, costs and product cycles.
The emerging auto moat combines brand with low costs, software, batteries, speed and scale.

European car stocks look cheap. Unfortunately, their competitors are getting cheaper cars onto the road too.

That is the backdrop to Volkswagen’s Future Plan 2030, approved on 3 September 2026. Europe’s largest carmaker plans another 50,000 job cuts, a smaller model range and major capacity reductions, while still investing EUR 135 billion between 2027 and 2031.

For investors, Volkswagen is not the whole story. It is the clearest symptom of an industry discovering that yesterday’s advantages may not be enough tomorrow.

Shrinking yesterday while funding tomorrow

Volkswagen built its scale for a larger market. Its European factories have more than 500,000 vehicles of excess annual capacity, while four German plants face uncertain production beyond the early 2030s. The group wants to halve its model range, target nine million annual sales and lift its operating margin to 9% by 2030, from 3.8% in the first half of 2026.

In other words, Volkswagen is shrinking yesterday’s company while funding tomorrow’s. Neither is cheap.

Cost cutting alone will not win the race. Volkswagen still needs competitive batteries, software, electronics and cars suited to different regional tastes. Closing factories can improve utilisation. It cannot make an unwanted car desirable.

China is exporting its problem

China’s domestic car sales fell 20% in the first half of 2026, while exports rose 71%. Chinese brands have gone from roughly 3% of Europe’s passenger-car market four years ago to about 16% in early 2026.

BYD shows the mechanism. Strong overseas shipments have helped offset weaker conditions at home. When domestic demand slows but factories keep producing, foreign markets become more important.

Chinese brands do not need to dominate Europe to change its economics. They only need enough scale and attractive products to force rivals to cut prices, add features or spend more on development.

Tariffs can slow the process, but local European production and hybrid models offer ways around some barriers.

The old European moat was brand, factories and dealer networks. The emerging moat is broader: brand, low production costs, batteries, software, development speed and scale.

Cheap can mean two different things

European autos trade at roughly 10 times projected earnings, versus around 15 times for the STOXX Europe 600. The discount is tempting, but it does not answer the important question.

Source: underlying estimates are aggregated from sell-side consensus compiled by Bloomberg. The chart was generated using ASKB by Bloomberg AI.

Maybe investors are too pessimistic about global brands with huge scale and decades of engineering expertise. Or maybe historical profits are a poor guide to future profits in a more competitive industry.

The differences matter. BMW and Mercedes-Benz have premium brands that provide some protection from price competition, but both remain heavily exposed to China. Stellantis has historically relied on cost discipline but faces product and regional challenges. Toyota offers hybrid strength and manufacturing efficiency. BYD brings scale, vertical integration and speed, but also operates inside a brutal home-market price war.

The key question is not who sells the most electric cars. It is who can protect returns while changing the machine underneath the badge.

Risks to watch

The first risk is that restructuring savings arrive more slowly than price pressure. Watch factory utilisation, incentives and margins.

The second is that Chinese exporters gain share faster than European groups can refresh their products.

The third is capital allocation. Heavy spending only creates value if new technology and factories eventually earn acceptable returns.

Investor playbook

Compare margins with market share. Sales growth bought through discounts can hide weakening economics.
Watch product-development speed and factory utilisation, not just EV volumes.
Separate premium brands from mass-market manufacturers. Pricing pressure will not hit every segment equally.
Treat low valuations as a question to investigate, not an answer.

The badge still matters, but the factory behind it matters more

Europe built the modern car industry around brands, engineering and industrial scale. Those strengths remain valuable, but China is forcing investors to ask what they are worth in a faster, cheaper competitive system.

Volkswagen’s EUR 135 billion reset captures the challenge: remove excess capacity while spending heavily enough to stay relevant. BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis face different versions of the same test, while Toyota and BYD show there is more than one route through the transition.

European car stocks may be cheap. The opportunity will not come from the low multiple itself. It will come from companies proving that their moat can change as quickly as the car does.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Electric vehicles

Europe heads into winter with a thinner energy buffer

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Gas buffers are thin: EU storage is at a 15-year seasonal low, while Qatari LNG disruption has tightened global supply.
Risks could compound: Low storage, cold weather, weak wind/hydro and constrained LNG supply are the key winter threat.
Power volatility is rising: Growing renewable reliance increases exposure to Dunkelflaute, hydro weakness and nuclear outages.
Important buffers remain: US LNG, lower gas demand and strong nuclear availability could help, while El Niño may deliver a milder winter.

Europe is approaching the coming winter with a considerably thinner energy cushion than in recent years. EU storage is currently around 66% full, the lowest level for this point in the year in roughly 15 years. Germany is particularly exposed: storage is only a little above 50%, compared with the government’s objective of 70% by early November.

Meanwhile, the prolonged disruption to Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply, tightening the global market while increasing competition for alternative cargoes. The scale of the disruption is extraordinary: Reuters reported recently that Qatar had exported only 18 LNG cargoes since the war began, compared with 509 during the same period last year.

The main risk is therefore not necessarily an outright shortage, but a combination of low inventories, a cold winter and periods of weak wind and hydro generation, which could sharply increase demand for gas-fired power at the same time as heating demand peaks. Continued disruption to Qatari LNG would amplify that risk by forcing Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia for flexible supply. The uncomfortable scenario is not any single one of these factors, but their combination: low storage + cold weather + weak wind/hydro + continued Qatari disruption.

EU gas market situation - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Power markets add another layer of risk as electricity demand rises through electrification while Europe becomes increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation. The resulting volatility was evident during May and June, when average EU electricity prices before 09:00 and after 18:00 reached EUR 122/MWh versus EUR 90/MWh a year earlier, while daytime prices averaged just EUR 56/MWh as abundant solar generation depressed prices (Source: Euroelectric). Gas-fired generation rose 15% outside solar hours, highlighting the growing importance of flexible backup generation.

This challenge could become more pronounced during winter. Extended Dunkelflaute periods - cold, cloudy and low-wind conditions - can simultaneously lift electricity demand and sharply reduce renewable output, increasing reliance on gas-fired generation. Other risks include low hydro levels, nuclear outages and insufficient grid, battery and interconnector capacity. Conversely, strong French nuclear availability, improved hydro conditions, additional storage and better cross-border transmission would reduce the call on gas.

Several factors could also mitigate the broader energy challenge. European gas demand remains structurally below pre-energy-crisis levels, while rising US LNG export capacity provides an increasingly important alternative source of supply. That is important because storage isn't merely an inventory number. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies estimates that storage withdrawals typically provide 20–33% of EU net winter gas supply, highlighting the importance of continued imports.

Weather, however, may ultimately prove decisive. The developing El Niño could become the strongest on record and is expected to persist into early 2027. While potentially supportive for European energy balances if it contributes to a mild winter, the same phenomenon is increasing the risk of extreme weather elsewhere, potentially disrupting agricultural production and adding another layer of volatility across commodity markets.

Overall, Europe looks capable of managing the winter, but with less room for error. The growing interaction between gas and an increasingly weather-dependent power system means adverse conditions could quickly translate into higher and more volatile prices across both markets.

European energy market risk overview - Source: Saxo

Related articles/content
3 Sept 2026: Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns 2 Sept 2026: The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it 1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates 29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026 28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA

Market Quick Take - Markets rally as Waller turns dovish, jobs report takes centre stage - 04 September 2026

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:45:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A senior Fed voice softened on September as the jobs report comes into view
Equities: US and European stocks rallied as rate fears eased, while Asian markets extended gains with technology leading.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities surged as bitcoin reclaimed a key level on easing rate fears
Commodities: BCOM heads for record weekly close as energy surges; Waller and softer dollar revive gold momentum
Fixed Income: Global bonds rally, led by Japan’s government bonds
Currencies: Recent JPY surge partially fades, USD weaker.

Macro

The US Fed's Waller pivots dovish: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be “heavily influenced” by August CPI data due 11 September. He signalled willingness to hold rates steady if disinflation continues, prompting markets to price roughly even odds of a hike at the September meeting, down from near-certainty earlier in the week.
US trade deficit widens sharply: The July goods and services trade gap expanded 24.4% month-on-month to $88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% surge in capital goods imports, primarily computers and semiconductors, reflecting the AI investment race.
The ISM Services PMI showed strong momentum in August, with activity and demand both picking up. Solid growth alongside limited hiring supports the broader AI-productivity story. For the Fed, however, rising cost pressures were the main concern, putting even more focus on the August CPI ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting. The ISM Services PMI rose 1.3 points to 55.4, above the 54.1 consensus. Business activity and new orders strengthened, while backlogs also increased. Meanwhile, prices paid rose to 72.6, above the 70 consensus.
US-Iran conflict ongoing: The US carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking inflation concerns. President Trump said renewed attacks would be “short-lived,” offering some relief to markets mid-week.
The BOE's Pill flags prompt hike: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said a “prompt” rate increase would be appropriate to prevent the Iran energy shock from embedding inflation, though he stressed it need not be the start of a prolonged hiking cycle.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Jul. Factory Orders
1230 – US Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
1230 – US Aug. Unemployment Rate
1230 – US Aug. Average Hourly Earnings
1230 – Canada Aug. Employment Data
1400 – Canada Aug. Ivey PMI

Earnings events

Next week
Wednesday: Inditex
Thursday: Oracle, Adobe

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow added 1.2% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s softer comments reduced expectations for a September rate hike. Microsoft gained 2.7%, while Nvidia rose 1.8% after agreeing to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Snowflake surged 16.6% on a stronger revenue outlook, while Broadcom fell 2.7% after its quarterly revenue forecast disappointed. After hours, Lululemon dropped around 18% after cutting its full-year revenue and profit outlook again. Markets now turn to today’s US jobs report.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 649.1, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% as lower global bond yields eased recent pressure on valuations. Soitec jumped 10.3% after raising its second-quarter revenue growth outlook, while WPP gained 5.6% and Publicis rose 4.4% following reports that Publicis had won PepsiCo’s media account. Commerzbank added 2.3% after announcing a share buyback of up to €1.2 billion, while LVMH fell 1.8% as investors remained cautious on the luxury recovery.
Asia: Asian equities advanced in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, South Korea’s Kospi around 2% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 2% as Waller’s comments supported risk appetite ahead of US jobs data. SoftBank surged around 10%, providing much of the Nikkei’s lift, while Kioxia gained 6.3% as AI-linked stocks rebounded. Samsung Electronics rose 3% and SK Hynix gained 5%, helped by renewed semiconductor demand optimism. A stronger yen and rising Bank of Japan rate expectations remained the main counterweight for Japanese exporters.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Crypto equities had their strongest day in weeks as bitcoin reclaimed USD 80,000 on Thursday and rate-hike odds fell. Strategy rose 17.56%, Circle 16.46% and Coinbase 10.14%, with the miners up 10% to 14%; spot has since flattened overnight.
Strategy resumed buying after a ten-week pause, adding 4,603 bitcoin for USD 369.7 million in its 31 August filing, lifting holdings to 845,050. US spot bitcoin funds took in USD 101 million on Wednesday while ether funds saw USD 48 million leave.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades steady after a three-session rally of around 9%, with WTI at USD 91.50 and Brent at USD 95.50. The US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep supply risks and the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Brent has risen almost 60% this year, while refined products such as diesel have seen even steeper gains amid the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war. OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday to set production targets.
Metals: Gold extended its rebound, rising as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce, its biggest intraday jump since 19 August, supported by a weaker dollar and Waller’s remarks. Spot trades around USD 4,470 this morning. The largest bullion-backed gold fund recorded a USD 1.41 billion inflow, its largest since 16 January, while the senior gold miner fund rose 3.95% and silver 2.51%. In addition, central bank demand remains an important structural support. Following Waller’s comments, there is little doubt that next week’s August CPI print could have an outsized impact on market risk sentiment and where gold goes next. Key resistance is the 200-day moving average at USD 4,534.
Commodities: The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance to 33.6% and putting it on course for a record weekly closing high. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, surging 6.3%, while agriculture trades softer following four weeks of strong gains that lifted the BCOM Agriculture Index by 12.6%. An end-of-week rebound across precious metals has left the sector near unchanged on the week, while industrial metals have recorded a small gain.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bonds rallied Thursday and early Friday. On Thursday, the US Fed’s Waller, an FOMC meeting voter, sounded far more dovish than Chair Warsh, confusing the market and sending short-date US yields sharply lower by some seven basis points, though much of that move was erased. Today’s key test for global bond markets is the US August jobs report.
In Japan on Friday, the government bond yield curve bull flattened again, with short-dated yields modestly lower while the longest-dated government bonds were snapped up for a second session, sending the benchmark 30-year JGB yield another seven basis points lower and testing the symbolic 4.00% yield level.

Currencies

The rally in the Japanese yen extended close to the key 155.00 level in USDJPY, an area where the prior two rounds of intervention failed to see the JPY punching through to sustain a rally. Bloomberg reported that JP Morgan estimates that perhaps some 16–17 trillion JPY in JPY carry trades, more than USD 100 billion in long USDJPY trades, remain outstanding and that a self-reinforcing liquidation of positions could be triggered by a move below 155.00 that could send USDJPY to the 142–146 range.
The US dollar was broadly weaker after Fed voter Christopher Waller’s dovish comments. EURUSD rose back solidly above 1.1625 and AUDUSD rose above 0.7210, its highest level since May.
EURSEK fell sharply after testing as high as 11.18+ earlier this week, falling as low as 11.08 early Friday and therefore back into the range below 11.11 that had capped the exchange rate from June through August. Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Thedeen spoke positively on the status of the economic recovery and the market has pulled forward expectations of the bank’s first policy hike to as soon as the November meeting.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

The FX Trader: Big JPY rally – finally more than just intervention?

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:01:00 Z

This JPY rally might actually stick.

The latest

The Japanese yen is rallying sharply and it may not be just intervention. A confluence of recent developments this week helped to first weaken the Japanese yen and then strengthen it sharply. Earlier this week, USDJPY challenged above 160.00 for the first time since the late July-early August intervention move to strengthen the yen. The chief driver going into this episode was the usual suspects of spiking oil prices and global bond yields moving sharply higher, driving fears of a Japanese bond market meltdown. But since the beginning of the week we’ve had a very sharp move higher in Japanese short rates to price a more aggressive BoJ rate hike trajectory. The 2-year JGB yield ramped nearly 15 basis points – most of it Tuesday and Wednesday – to above 1.85% at its highest Wednesday and we now have a 25-bp hike fully priced for the September 18 BoJ meeting. This came in part on the optics of US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s arm twisting of the BoJ on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of finance chiefs and central bank heads. And indeed, BoJ Governor Ueda delivered rhetoric supporting a more hawkish outlook. Perhaps more importantly for the ability of the JPY rally to stick, Japan’s largest pension fund, the GPIF, is attracting attention today for having held a meeting on August 21, with an August 31 report suggesting that asset allocation was on the agenda, fueling speculation that the USD 2 trillion fund, the world’s largest, is considering changing its allocation to Japanese bonds after rejecting any changes to its allocation principles as recently as March. Could this story be what also drove an exceptionally strong 30-year JGB auction early today, one that drove the benchmark 30-year yield nearly ten basis points lower just a day after it nearly touched the all-time high?

Bottom line: It’s too early to tell, but the confluence of seeming BoJ determination to deliver rate hikes and the GPIF story and strong demand for the longest dated JGBs suggest there is better support for the yen than around previous rounds of intervention. On the other hand, if we go back to yields continuing to spike everywhere, the JPY strengthening move would face an up-hill struggle again.

Chart focus: USDJPY (1-week Ichimoku)
With this latest move lower in USDJPY, we are already running into interesting technical levels for USDJPY as we have cut through all of the local retracement levels (not shown) and we are nearly at the key 155.00 area that held up the price action intraday on the prior two sell-off rounds. It is worth noting that only one sharp sell-off since well back into 2025 has held for more than three trading days and that one (in February) only lasted another day before all of the backfilling started. So the first test for the pair is one of time – lasting into mid-next week, for example. In terms of levels and technical developments according to Ichimoku analysis principles, we are watching two things here. The last time the key cloud level was broken (the first red circle on the left), there was no “confirmation” from the lagging span level (green line) at the time, as it was above the prior price bars. This time, we are still some distance from the cloud level, but are at the new trend tipping point as the lagging span will cross below the price bars in the days ahead even if we just stay at current levels and will of course break lower if the price action heads lower still. First order of business for bears would be a hold below 155.00 and then an eventual break of the bottom of the cloud, which begins to rise above 150.00 in the weeks ahead.

Source: Saxo

The RBNZ meeting early Wednesday was read as a dovish hike as the central bank’s commitment to further tightening looked less firm than at prior meetings, sending the next anticipated rate hike further over the horizon. Governor Breman said the timing of a future hike is uncertain – some believe due to November elections and perhaps a RBNZ desire to avoid appearing as any factor in the election outcome. The opposition Labour Party wants to give the RBNZ a dual mandate (maximum employment level as well as inflation stability). The polls suggest a close outcome, with a new third party complicating the picture. AUDNZD has eyed the 13-year highs just below 1.2300 in the wake of the meeting.

The Bank of Canada looked like a hawkish hold as the Governor Macklem seemed more concerned with inflation than the recent sharp drops in the official core measures would seem to warrant, and he was also dismissive of the impact of US tariffs, provided they only continue to be assessed on the “narrow base” of Canadian goods. Canadian short rates jumped some eight basis points after the BoC meeting as the pricing for a hike at the December BoC meeting firmed to around 90%. USDCAD turned tail from 1.3940 Wednesday, in part as the USD was weighed down by likely USDJPY intervention, but most of the subsequent move was on the BoC effect as the pair dropped nearly all the way to 1.3800 today, looking very capped.

Sterling only rates a brief mention, but important to note that EURGBP broke above the clear 0.8580 line in the sand of the last couple of months.

Looking ahead
We’ve got the last bits of key US data to consider this week, including today’s ISM Services for August, but more importantly the US August jobs report. For the latter, the unemployment rate deserves as much attention as the (always heavily revised) non-farm payrolls change data. There has been a misleading drop in the unemployment rate in recent months to 4.1% from a peak of 4.5% in late 2025 that has coincided with a drop in the participation rate by a full percentage point since December. This is likely more of a sign of older workers leaving the workforce and the labor force size therefore shrinking slightly than any sign of jobs growth. And already, in the sluggish payrolls number, we have seen the “low hire, low fire” phrase thrown about for quite a while now. Another 4.1% reading and whatever the print is tomorrow, we need to pair it with the participation rate change (same or lower unemployment rate with a lower participation rate is not positive. On the other hand, a small rise to 4.2% while the Participation Rate increases perhaps 0.2% is not negative.) Negative is a rise in both and positive is a fall in the rate with no fall or better in the participation rate.

Besides the jobs report tomorrow, given Warsh’s strange but on the balance hawkish rhetoric at the Jackson Hole speech and focus on inflation as the primary concern, next Friday’s US August CPI print is the really critical final data point into the September 16 FOMC meeting.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

Things are a bit dynamic with the scale and speed of this JPY move, but note the white hot momentum readings for the 2-day change in the broader JPY picture. As well, note that there is no “contagion” into CHF as the Swiss National Bank is in no hurry to push back against CHF weakness and has been happy to signal a continuation of its zero-interest rate policy for now. Elsewhere, the NZD was marked sharply lower post-RBNZ and CAD somewhat less sharply marked higher after the BoC meeting.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The JPY crosses are all flipping into negative trending mode if this move lower holds – with EURJPY and GBPJPY set to flip negative today assuming the price action doesn’t back up too steeply. Difficult to rate the USDCHF attempt to post a new positive trending signal when both USD and CHF are weak here.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Commodities are benefiting from two sources of return: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has gained 43.3% over the past year, compared with 35% for the Spot Index, highlighting the additional contribution from positive roll returns.
Energy is providing the strongest carry: Tight physical markets have driven Brent, WTI and refined products into steep backwardation, with one-year implied roll yields above 20% across several fuel contracts.
Backwardation can reinforce bullish market conditions: When supply is tight, investors can benefit from both higher spot prices and positive carry, helping explain why commodity markets in backwardation often attract buying on price corrections.
Curve structure matters as much as direction: Contango creates the opposite dynamic, with negative carry eroding returns over time and raising the hurdle for investors even when the underlying commodity price outlook is constructive.

The hidden tailwind behind the commodity rally

The strong performance of commodities this year has been driven by more than rising spot prices. Tight physical markets, particularly across energy, have pushed futures curves deeper into backwardation, providing investors with an additional source of return through positive carry. Over the past year, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has risen 43.3%, compared with a 35% gain in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. Year to date, the indexes are up 33.4% and 26.5%, respectively.

Over the past five years, the Spot Index has gained 25.5%, while the Total Return Index has risen 71.6%. By contrast, during the previous five-year period, from 2016 to 2021, the Spot Index returned 65.2%, while the Total Return Index fell 3.5%. This period was characterized by ample supply, further reinforced by the sharp, short-term drop in demand during the Covid pandemic.

From ample to tightening supply and its impact on total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

These figures highlight how market conditions - particularly whether supply is tight or abundant - can significantly affect investor returns. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

The gap reflects futures-curve structure. Commodity indices such as BCOM gain exposure through futures contracts that are periodically rolled into later maturities. When nearby contracts trade above deferred contracts, the roll can generate a positive return by selling an expiring contract at a higher price than the next contract being bought. In contango, the opposite applies.

Energy delivers the strongest tailwind

The effect is most pronounced across energy, where the one-year implied roll yield has risen sharply during the past six months, with Brent and WTI currently offering positive carry of around 19% and 21%, respectively. Refined products are even stronger, with gasoil, ULSD (diesel) and RBOB gasoline showing implied roll yields above 20% and, in some cases, close to 30%.

So far this year, these conditions have helped the BCOM Energy Index - which includes natural gas, down 20% year to date - deliver a total realised return of 75.8%, while the underlying spot index has gained “only” 51.3%.

The steep backwardation reflects tight physical energy markets. Disruption to Middle East and Russian supply and shipping, low product inventories and exceptionally strong refinery margins have increased the premium for prompt supply relative to barrels available further into the future.

This creates a powerful combination for investors: a long position can benefit from both rising spot prices and positive carry as exposure is rolled along the curve.

The one-year futures spread across key commodities - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo

Why backwardation can encourage buying on weakness

A steeply backwardated curve generally signals that consumers are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery, reflecting low inventories, supply uncertainty or strong near-term demand.

Provided that tightness persists, time works in favour of long positions through positive carry. A correction caused by macroeconomic factors, profit-taking or improved risk sentiment may therefore be viewed as a buying opportunity if the physical market remains tight and the curve stays backwardated.

Contango creates the opposite dynamic. Investors rolling long positions must repeatedly move into more expensive contracts, allowing negative carry to erode returns unless spot prices rise enough to compensate.

Curve structure can therefore provide important confirmation - or a warning - alongside the fundamental and technical outlook.

Metals remain structurally different

Not all commodity sectors currently offer positive carry, with precious and industrial metals mostly remain in contango, although zinc is a notable exception. This does not automatically signal weak fundamentals. Metals typically trade in contango because forward prices incorporate financing, storage and other carrying costs. With USD funding costs still elevated, with the 12-month rate around 4.2%, gold, silver and several industrial metals face a higher hurdle before moving into backwardation.

Zinc’s positive roll yield is therefore particularly noteworthy, reflecting the supply-side tightness supporting the metal. Copper, by contrast, remains in modest contango despite prices near record levels, illustrating why curve structure must be interpreted differently across sectors.

Agriculture presents a mixed picture, with some markets moving towards stronger backwardation while others remain in contango depending on inventories, harvest and weather expectations and immediate supply availability.

Carry has become an important part of the commodity story

Investors focusing exclusively on spot-price performance risk overlooking an increasingly important component of commodity returns.

The trailing difference between BCOM Total Return and Spot performance points to a substantial contribution from rolling futures exposure. The BCOM gross roll yield - measured as the 12-month return difference between the Total Return and Spot indices - has risen to around 8.8 percentage points, close to its strongest level in five years. However, as the chart shows, this return has been driven exclusively by strength in energy, raising the possibility of lower carry once the energy supply situation normalises. At the same time, emerging signs of tightness across key agricultural commodities, driven by war and weather, have not yet translated into meaningful backwardation, as seen during the 2022–2024 period following the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

One year realised roll yields across the major commodity sectors - Source: Bloomberg and Saxo

Current futures curves still indicate positive aggregate carry, although at a more moderate pace than the exceptional contribution realised over the past year. Based on current BCOM target weights and one-year implied roll yields across its 25 constituent commodities, the weighted implied roll yield is around 3.3%.

The distinction matters: 8.8 percentage points describes the favourable curve conditions experienced over the past year, while 3.3% is a snapshot of currently implied carry, not a forecast of future realised returns.

Overall, commodity markets are being supported by supply constraints, rising spot prices and a futures-curve structure that continues to reward long exposure. As long as physical tightness persists - particularly across energy - backwardation provides an additional tailwind supporting the case for buying corrections rather than automatically treating them as the start of a broader reversal.

A meaningful flattening of these curves, or a shift back towards contango, would instead warn that physical tightness is easing. Watching the shape of the curve may therefore be almost as important as watching the price itself.

Related articles/content
2 Sept 2026: The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it 1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates 29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026 28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

2 Sept 2026: The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it
1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates
29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026
28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA

Markets pause for breath after yield run-up.

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:48:00 Z

The yen is on a tear higher.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there.
Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel, etc. A long form youtube video of the author himself talking about the book.
An exchange on X about China's huge debt load and its implications depending on how it is unwound - Japanese-style or otherwise.
The deepest of dives on "what really happened at Jackson Hole" - not the ramblings of Fed Chair Warsh, but rather on the actual theme of Jackson Hole this year, which was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Four earnings, one AI message: follow the money

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Broadcom’s custom chips and networking show AI spending is broadening beyond general-purpose graphics processing units.
Dell, Snowflake and Palo Alto reveal the next bottlenecks: systems, usable data and security.
Strong results can still disappoint when expectations are extreme, making cash generation and execution more important.

The artificial intelligence boom is starting to look less like one trade and more like a supply chain.

Between 1 and 2 September 2026, Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake and Broadcom all reported strong AI-linked demand. Yet investors reacted differently. Dell rallied, Snowflake jumped after hours, while Palo Alto fell and Broadcom slipped.

AI spending still looks strong. The harder question is where the best economics sit, and how much investors have already paid for them.

Broadcom moves to the centre

Broadcom designs custom AI processors and the networking technology connecting thousands of chips inside data centres. AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled year on year, while management now expects about 115 billion USD of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027.

Large AI developers increasingly want chips designed around their own workloads. Custom chips can offer better cost or power efficiency than general-purpose graphics processing units for specific tasks. Broadcom also sells the networking equipment connecting them, giving it exposure to two bottlenecks at once.

Yet the shares slipped after results. Near-term guidance landed around market expectations, which were already enormous. Strong demand can be real and still not be strong enough for the share price.

The rest of the AI factory is filling up

Dell assembles servers and storage systems that turn chips into working infrastructure. AI server orders hit record levels and the company raised its outlook again, confirming that customers are moving from plans to deployments.

Cash flow deserves attention. Dell generated about 1 billion USD of standard free cash flow on 47 billion USD of quarterly revenue. Its adjusted figure is higher because it adds back cash tied up in customer financing and leased equipment. Hardware growth can still require plenty of cash.

Snowflake helps companies store, organise and use their data. Product revenue accelerated, guidance rose and management said AI products drove roughly half of the recent growth acceleration. AI becomes more useful when it can work safely with a company’s own data.

Palo Alto Networks provides the security layer. More connected data, models and automated agents create more things to protect. Results were strong, but the shares fell as investors questioned how much growth came from acquisitions versus the underlying business.

Follow the bottlenecks, then follow the cash

Broadcom controls scarce custom computing and networking technology. Dell benefits from physical deployment but ties up more capital. Snowflake monetises data usage. Palo Alto benefits from growing security complexity.

For investors, the better question is shifting from “who has AI exposure?” to “what bottleneck does this company control, and how efficiently does it turn demand into cash?”

Risks

The main risk is that infrastructure spending eventually runs ahead of real AI usage. Customer concentration also matters, especially when a few hyperscalers drive demand. Expectations remain demanding.

Investor playbook

Track whether AI orders keep turning into delivered systems, not only announced projects.
Compare revenue growth with margins and free cash flow to judge growth quality.
Watch whether enterprise AI usage spreads into data, security and recurring software spending.

The AI trade is becoming a bottleneck hunt

The first phase of the AI boom rewarded scarce computing power. These four earnings reports suggest the second phase is becoming more interesting.

Broadcom shows custom silicon and networking becoming a serious second pillar of AI infrastructure. Dell confirms physical deployment remains strong. Snowflake shows AI moving into enterprise data, while Palo Alto shows that more automation creates more need for control.

The lesson is not to guess which logo wins the AI race. It is to ask who controls a bottleneck, who gets paid repeatedly and who converts demand into cash. As AI spreads through the stack, those questions may matter more than the headline growth rate.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Quarterly earnings

Market Quick Take - Shares and bonds rebound as oil prices steady - 03 September 2026

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:50:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A weak private jobs count did little to cool expectations of a Fed hike
Equities: US equities rebounded as technology recovered, Europe stayed under pressure from yields, Asia advanced as bond markets stabilised.
Digital Assets: Miners led the sector higher while the exchange and treasury names lagged
Commodities: Crude steadies, precious metals rebound from three-session slide; wheat retreats from 3½-year high
Fixed Income: Treasury yields rolled over Wednesday after fresh highs. Big rally in longest-dated Japanese government debt overnight after strong 30-year auction.
Currencies: Japanese yen rallied sharply Wednesday and early Thursday, sparking intervention rumours. CAD higher post-BoC.

Macro

US hiring slowed sharply. Private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August on the ADP measure, the weakest since January and below the 47,000 expected. Markets nonetheless moved to a 61% chance of a Federal Reserve hike in September, up from roughly 40% a week earlier, probably driven more by this week’s renewed oil-driven inflation impulse than by the labour data. Factory orders rose 0.9% in July, rebounding from a 0.2% fall and beating the 0.6% forecast, led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment.
The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% while warning of stronger upside inflation risks from energy, the Middle East conflict and renewed US tariffs. Australian second-quarter GDP beat estimates, lifting the three-year yield by close to 10 basis points.
Today's calendar highlight is the US August ISM Services survey, expected near unchanged versus July’s 54.1 reading. Some focus will be on the Employment sub-index after July’s surprise dip to 47.4, suggesting weakening hiring plans. Weekly initial jobless claims are expected at 205,000 against 203,000. US August jobs data are up on Friday, with consensus for a non-farm payrolls change of +58k after a decline of -23k the prior month. After Fed Chair Warsh recently emphasised the Fed’s focus on too-high inflation, next Friday’s September CPI data looks particularly important.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Switzerland Aug. CPI
0700 – Switzerland Q2 GDP
0930 – US Aug. Challenger Job Cuts
1030 – Sweden Riksbank Governor Thedeen to speak
1230 – US Fed’s Waller (voter) to speak
1230 – US Jul. Trade Balance
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1400 – US Aug. ISM Services

Earnings events

Today: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% and the Dow added 0.6%, ending a three-session losing streak as bond yields stabilised and investors returned to beaten-down stocks. Dell surged 15.8% after lifting its annual revenue outlook to $192 billion on stronger AI-server demand, while Nvidia gained 3.2% as chip stocks rebounded. Palo Alto Networks fell 9.3% despite solid results as its free-cash-flow margin outlook disappointed elevated expectations. After hours, Broadcom initially fell 3.7% after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $34.8 billion, below consensus, while Snowflake jumped 23.7% after raising its full-year product-revenue outlook on stronger cloud and AI demand.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2%, the DAX lost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.3% as elevated bond yields and renewed Middle East tensions kept inflation concerns alive. Retailers were among the weakest groups, with Zalando down 4.7%, while Lottomatica fell 7.6% after announcing a takeover of Spain’s Cirsa. The Swiss market bucked the trend, with the SMI gaining 0.2%. Investors now remain focused on oil prices, bond yields and the next signals from major central banks.
Asia: Asian equities turned lower in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.2% as the stronger yen and renewed pressure on technology shares weighed on sentiment. SoftBank rebounded 1.5%, while Samsung Electronics fell 2.4% and SK Hynix dropped around 3.0%. Investors remained focused on Friday’s US payrolls report and whether central banks will need to tighten further.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The coins barely moved and the equity complex split. Miners led, IREN up 7.55%, Riot 4.75% and Cipher 3.90% on continued artificial intelligence and data-centre demand, while Coinbase fell 1.05% and Strategy 1.35%. Block rose 5.88%.
Fund flows stayed supportive, with US spot bitcoin funds taking in about USD 2.6 billion over the past week. On policy, the Senate test for the US Crypto Clarity Act is set for mid-September, and industry confidence in passage before the midterm elections appears to be fading.

Commodities

Oil: Crude prices steadied after a three-day rally, with Brent holding near USD 95 as President Donald Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would be short-lived, while US officials said 17 million barrels of oil exited the Strait on Monday, signalling robust flows through the waterway. Adding to the more constructive tone, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China is willing to work with Middle Eastern countries to “safeguard” shipping through key regional waterways. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles recorded their first decline since July as exports rose to the highest since June and refineries processed the most crude in seven years.
Precious metals: Precious metals, led by gold, trade higher for a second day, supported by softer US economic data and lower oil prices, which have helped arrest the rise in bond yields. Additional support has come from a softer dollar, particularly against the Japanese yen, which is once again on intervention watch. While the market is pricing a more than 60% probability of a September rate hike, the question remains whether the Fed will tighten that close to the November midterm elections. For now, gold’s inverse correlation with oil prices and bond yields remains a key focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers. Fibonacci resistance is seen at USD 4,441 and USD 4,490.
Agriculture: Chicago wheat futures turned lower after reaching a 3½-year high, as traders booked profits while assessing continued threats to Black Sea grain exports. Russia reportedly rejected a moratorium on attacks in the region before striking Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa, while Ukraine’s largest farm union warned exporters not to expect deepwater ports to resume operations soon. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a mechanism to ensure the permanent safety of commercial shipping before the grain crisis escalates further. Corn and soybeans also retreated from recent highs.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bond yields rolled over slightly lower after new cycle highs Wednesday. The benchmark US 2-year Treasury yield tested just above 4.40% Wednesday, nearly matching the intraday high of early 2025 before rolling over several basis points and trading at 4.365% early Thursday. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped back to 4.77% early Thursday after an intraday high of 4.816%.
Japan’s government bond yield curve bull flattened as rates at the front end of the curve were steady to slightly lower, while the longest-dated JGBs rallied sharply, sending yields tumbling. After strong demand for 30-year JGBs at a government auction, the benchmark 30-year JGB yield had fallen nine basis points by late Tokyo trading Thursday to 4.084%, after testing the record-high yield for the debt just a day before with an intraday high of 4.217%.

Currencies

The Japanese yen rallied sharply Wednesday on no readily identifiable catalyst, sparking rumours of a fresh wave of official intervention to strengthen the currency. The move unfolded as USDJPY was trading above 159.50 and it spiked as low as 158.22 before rebounding to 159.00 and then dipping again early Thursday as low as 157.55. Other JPY crosses fell sharply as volatility in currencies was muted elsewhere: EURJPY dropped to below 183.00 after trading above 185.00, while GBPJPY fell to below 213.00 from above 216.00.
Sterling traded weakly Wednesday as the clearly defined chart resistance in EURGBP of the last two months at 0.8580 fell. EURGBP traded as high as 0.8595 early Thursday. Recent large rises in UK Gilt yields in line with global peers are seen as likely removing budget headroom for new Prime Minister Burnham’s initiatives and spending plans.
The Canadian dollar rallied sharply in the wake of the Bank of Canada rate decision to hold rates as expected. Governor Tiff Macklem raised the level of concern over inflationary pressures in Canada stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Macklem was somewhat dismissive of the impact of higher US tariffs for now, as they are to be assessed on a “narrow base” of Canadian goods, but did mention rising growth concerns should the base of the tariffs widen. Canadian 2-year government bond yields jumped about eight basis points and the odds of a BoC hike at the December meeting rose to near certainty. USDCAD rolled over to trade near 1.3835 by early Thursday after an intraday high before the BoC meeting of 1.3940.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Have we entered the event horizon for a volatility spike?

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:45:00 Z

Global bond markets remain chief focus.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons.
A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Jobs built the products. Cook built the machine. What does Apple’s new CEO build next?

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Ternus inherits 2.5 billion active devices, a huge services business and one of corporate America’s strongest cash machines.
Apple’s biggest AI question is not whether it builds the best model, but whether it keeps controlling the consumer interface.
Watch installed-base growth, services, new-product adoption and capital allocation rather than judging the Ternus era by keynote applause.

Steve Jobs built products. Tim Cook built the machine around them. John Ternus now has to decide where that machine goes next.

Ternus officially became Apple’s chief executive officer (CEO) on 1 September 2026, after 25 years at the company and a long spell running hardware engineering. Cook remains executive chairman, giving Apple something close to continuity with new management.

Investors appeared comfortable with the handover, with Apple shares rising even as the broader market fell. The bigger question is much more interesting: how much does management matter when the business already owns one of the strongest moats in the world?

The moat is already doing much of the work

Ternus does not inherit a turnaround. He inherits an ecosystem.

Apple has more than 2.5 billion active devices, while Services has grown into a business generating more than 100 billion USD a year. Every iPhone can lead to AirPods, an Apple Watch, iCloud, payments, entertainment and, eventually, another iPhone.

That is Apple’s compounding engine. Hardware brings customers in. Services deepen the relationship. A larger installed base creates more opportunities to sell both.

Capital allocation completes the picture. Apple continues to return tens of billions of dollars through buybacks and dividends. For investors influenced by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, this is where management matters most.

Apple does not need managerial heroics. It needs discipline. Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.

AI may test who really owns the customer

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the clearest strategic challenge.

Apple has looked unusually slow while OpenAI, Alphabet and others pushed ahead. But it may not need to build the biggest or smartest AI model to remain powerful.

Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.

That is why features such as Live Translation on AirPods matter. They turn AI from something impressive in a demo into something useful in everyday life. That is much closer to Apple’s traditional playbook than launching another chatbot.

The risk is that the dashboard itself changes. If consumers increasingly start with an AI assistant rather than an app or operating system, Apple could lose some control over the customer relationship. Ternus must decide what Apple needs to own and where partnerships are enough.

The next iPhone does not have to be another iPhone

Hardware still matters, particularly with a hardware engineer now in charge.

Apple is preparing products ranging from a foldable iPhone to smarter home devices and more capable AirPods. None needs to become the next iPhone to create value.

A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.

That may be the more realistic innovation test for the Ternus era. Apple does not necessarily need another revolutionary category. It needs a steady stream of products and features that make the ecosystem more useful and leaving it slightly less attractive.

Where the machine could slow

The biggest risk is that AI changes consumer behaviour faster than Apple adapts. Investors should watch whether Siri becomes genuinely useful, not simply better on stage.

Product innovation matters too. Vision Pro showed that technical achievement does not automatically create a mass market. Supply-chain, regulatory and geopolitical pressures add another layer.

Early warning signs would include slowing installed-base growth, weaker Services momentum or rising investment without better customer engagement.

Investor playbook

Follow the ecosystem: installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.
Separate AI demos from behaviour: watch usage, upgrades and developer adoption.
Judge hardware by ecosystem value: smaller products can matter if they strengthen customer retention.
Watch the cash: buybacks, acquisitions and capital spending show where management sees future returns.

The machine gets a new driver

Jobs built the products. Cook turned them into an extraordinarily efficient compounding machine.

Ternus inherits something different: a machine that already works.

His challenge is not simply to invent the next breakthrough. It is to decide where Apple must lead, where it can follow and where restraint is the better choice. AI, foldables and the home will test those decisions. For investors, the most important question is not whether Ternus changes Apple quickly. It is whether he understands which parts of the machine need changing at all.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Apple

The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Energy shares have decisively outperformed Big Tech: Geopolitical supply disruptions and soaring refining and gas margins are delivering immediate cash-flow gains, while hyperscalers face mounting AI investment costs and uncertainty over future returns.
The earnings gap reflects different investment cycles: Technology companies are committing unprecedented sums to AI infrastructure, while much of the associated revenue and return on capital remains years away.
Energy companies are monetising scarcity today: Wars, sanctions and disrupted trade flows have lifted crude oil, refined products and natural gas prices, immediately boosting cash flow from existing assets.
Refining has become exceptionally profitable: The US 3-2-1 crack spread has reached USD 63 per barrel, while even stronger European margins reflect diesel above USD 200 per barrel and expensive natural gas.

The technology sector fuelled by the artificial-intelligence investment boom continues to generate strong revenue growth, but some of the strongest equity returns this year have come from the companies providing the energy needed to build and operate the infrastructure behind it.

The contrast is striking. The seven energy majors shown in the table - ExxonMobil, Equinor, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and BP - have delivered an average year-over-year return of 38.5%, compared with 18% for the Magnificent Seven technology stocks. The performance has been particular strong so far this year with all seven energy stocks having gained at least 25%, led by Equinor at 71%, while performance among the Magnificent Seven ranges from Apple’s 19.6% rise to Tesla’s 20.8% decline.

Please note, that these are simple equal-weight calculations, not formal index returns, and that past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mag 7 and Energy 7 performance - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

The divergence does not mean the AI story is failing. Technology earnings remain formidable, but the cost of maintaining that growth is escalating rapidly. Meta’s second-quarter revenue rose 28% to USD 60.8 billion, yet capital expenditure reached USD 31.1 billion and free cash flow fell to just USD 784 million. The company now expects full-year capital spending of USD 130–145 billion.

Amazon offers a similar illustration. AWS operating income jumped to USD 16.6 billion from USD 10.2 billion a year earlier, but trailing 12-month free cash flow swung to an outflow of USD 7.6 billion as purchases of property and equipment increased by USD 66.1 billion, primarily reflecting investment in AI infrastructure.

The hyperscalers can finance these programmes, but investors are increasingly focused on the timing and scale of the eventual returns. Much of today’s spending must be committed before future AI demand, utilisation rates and pricing power can be known with confidence.

For the Energy Seven, the economics are almost the reverse. Higher commodity prices immediately lift revenue and cash flow from producing, processing and infrastructure assets already in operation. Years of restrained investment have limited spare capacity, while wars, sanctions and disrupted shipping routes have reduced the availability of crude oil, refined products and natural gas.

The consequences are already visible in earnings. ExxonMobil reported second-quarter earnings of USD 14.5 billion, more than double the USD 7.1 billion earned a year earlier. Cash flow from operations reached USD 23.6 billion and free cash flow USD 17.2 billion, supported by higher prices, stronger margins and record second-quarter diesel production. Chevron earned USD 12.1 billion, achieved a 21% return on capital employed and reported record US production and refinery throughput.

Equinor has been a particularly clear beneficiary of Europe’s scramble for secure energy. Its second-quarter adjusted operating income reached USD 11.5 billion, while net operating income more than doubled from a year earlier. The company realised USD 15.8 per MMBtu for European gas and USD 97.9 per barrel for liquids, with strong crude trading and refining performance providing additional support.

Crude, products and gas priced in USD per barrel - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo

Refining assets have become another major source of exceptional profits. The US 3-2-1 crack spread - the theoretical margin from converting three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate - is trading near USD 63 per barrel, compared with around USD 25 per barrel this time last year. That implies a remarkable margin before operating and other costs for refiners able to maintain high utilisation.

Conditions are even tighter in Europe, where diesel has risen above USD 200 per barrel, more than USD 105 above Brent and well above the USD 28 per barrel at which the spread traded this time last year. The premium reflects disrupted supply from Russia and Middle East refiners as well as limited regional refining capacity and Europe’s continued dependence on imported crude and products. Companies combining upstream production, trading operations and refining assets are therefore benefiting at several stages of the value chain.

European natural gas provides an equally dramatic example. EU gas is trading near USD 142 per barrel of oil equivalent, more than USD 45 above Brent and around eight times the prevailing US natural gas price. Europe’s shortage of indigenous supply and dependence on seaborne LNG, increasingly sourced from the US as Middle Eastern supplies remain close to offline, have created a substantial regional premium, handing a windfall to suppliers such as Equinor.

The performance gap therefore reflects more than a temporary rotation from technology into traditional energy. The Magnificent Seven are spending vast sums today to support earnings expected tomorrow. The Energy Seven are harvesting exceptional cash flow today from scarcity, elevated prices and infrastructure that already exists.

AI remains a powerful structural growth theme. However, its expanding requirement for electricity, natural gas, backup generation and grid infrastructure means some of its most immediate profits are accruing not only to those developing the technology, but also to those supplying the molecules and electrons needed to run it.

Related articles/content
1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates 29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026 28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

1 Sept 2026: Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates
29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026
28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Technology En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - Oil tops USD 95 and global bond yields reach multi-decade highs - 02 September 2026

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:50:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Stocks and bonds slid as surging oil prices fan inflation and rate-hike fears
Equities: US and European equities fell as oil and yields rose, Asia sold off sharply as the same pressures intensified.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities bore the risk-off session while fund inflows kept building quietly
Commodities: Brent above USD 95 as gold drops to three-week low
Fixed Income: Global yields lifted again Tuesday and early Wednesday, in part on the latest sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Currencies: The Japanese yen weakened to a new local low before rising early Wednesday on hawkish BoJ rhetoric. NZD punched lower by RBNZ guidance.

Macro

Brent crude oil topped USD 95 after the US-Iran conflict escalated further as American forces launched fresh strikes and Tehran retaliated. President Trump also downplayed prospects for diplomacy, saying he was “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table.” Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply curtailed, although Treasury Secretary Bessent said 17 million barrels of crude transited on Monday, suggesting Iran does not control the waterway.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its official cash rate 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected, but lowered its 2027 forecast for the policy rate, taking short-term NZ yields sharply lower. The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply in the wake of the decision.
European inflation accelerated. Eurozone flash headline inflation rose to 3.3% year-on-year in August from 2.9% in July, the highest in close to three years, driven mainly by energy. Core inflation was little changed, which in our view softens the print somewhat. Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.3, the strongest since May 2022, on stronger new and export orders, although supply-chain pressures worsened. UK house prices rose 1.6% year-on-year, up from 1.4% but below the 2.1% forecast.
US July JOLTS job openings rose to 7.27 million from a downwardly revised 7.18 million, slightly below the 7.31 million consensus, while layoffs fell, leaving what looks like a low-hire, low-fire labour market. The ISM manufacturing gauge eased to 54.6 versus 55.2 expected and 55.6 in July, with the New Orders index dipping to 53.7 versus 56.8 expected and 56.7 in July and the Employment index falling to 51.2 versus 52.5 expected and 52.8 in July.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1215 – US ADP August Employment
1345 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1400 – US July Factory Orders
1430 – EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
1800 – Fed Beige Book

Earnings events

Today: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,631.47, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.3%, and the Dow fell 0.8% to 52,766.88, extending losses to a third session as higher oil prices and bond yields revived inflation and rate-hike concerns. Technology and consumer discretionary led declines while energy outperformed. CrowdStrike fell 6.9% as higher yields pressured growth software, while Micron lost 2.6% after unions representing most of its Taiwan workforce threatened strike action over bonuses. Apple bucked the selloff, rising 2.6% as John Ternus took over as chief executive from Tim Cook.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6% to 647.46, the DAX lost 1.1%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% as rising oil prices, inflation and bond yields pressured equities and ended the Stoxx 600’s five-month winning streak. Partners Group dropped 7.3% after its CEO departure and weaker-than-expected performance income, while SAP fell 3.5% amid another analyst downgrade and concerns over its pace of AI monetisation. Novartis gained 6.3% after positive late-stage multiple-sclerosis trial data. Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Wolters Kluwer.
Asia: Asian equities fell sharply in Wednesday trading as renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil and sovereign yields higher, deepening inflation and rate concerns. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down around 3.0%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.5%, the Hang Seng slipped 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.9%, with technology among the weakest areas. SoftBank Group fell 6.3% as Japanese technology shares sold off, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also weighed heavily on Seoul. The reversal from Tuesday’s more resilient session put oil prices, bond yields and expectations for further central-bank tightening firmly back at the centre of the market.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Listed crypto took the brunt of the risk-off session while the coins held up better. Circle fell 7.1% and BitMine 7.7%, with Coinbase down 6.8% and Strategy 6.1%, although IREN was close to unchanged. Bitcoin has since eased toward USD 77,000 in Asian hours.
Fund flows kept moving the other way. US spot ether funds extended a net-inflow run to eleven sessions, and spot bitcoin funds took in USD 217 million on Monday. The Senate vote on the US Crypto Clarity Act is still outstanding after it missed the 60-vote threshold before the recess.

Commodities

Oil: WTI topped USD 92 a barrel and Brent USD 97 earlier in the session before retracing slightly, reaching their highest levels since late July after the US struck two Iranian government vessels, apparently as part of a new “tanker-for-tanker” policy aimed at deterring Iran from attacking ships transiting Hormuz. Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, which host American forces. Disruption fears remain the key price driver as commercial vessel traffic through the Strait remains curtailed. European gas prices also surged to a three-year high. Meanwhile, the API reported a weekly drop in US crude stocks, the first in five weeks if confirmed by the EIA later.
Precious metals: Precious metals remain on the defensive, extending recent declines as renewed oil price gains stoke inflation risks, pushing up bond yields while raising Fed rate-hike expectations. Meanwhile, India’s Modi urged Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary as a widening trade deficit and weaker rupee strain the economy. A USD 414 top-to-bottom slump over the past week has wiped out gold’s gains following Bessent’s Treasury buyback announcement, forcing some recently established longs to exit. For now, gold’s inverse correlation with rising oil prices and bond yields remains the main focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers.
Agriculture: US grain futures turned lower on Monday following a three-week surge that drove the BCOM Grains Index to a 12.3% gain last month amid escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels and global heat waves threatening output. While the supportive fundamental outlook remains intact, record hedge-fund buying has, within weeks, transformed the sector from underowned to a crowded long, leaving prices increasingly exposed to any deterioration in the technical or fundamental setup.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bond yields continued rising Tuesday and early Wednesday, in part on the sharp fresh rise in oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz situation escalated again. The benchmark US 2-year Treasury yield rose more than five basis points Tuesday to a new high since early 2025 at 4.40%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield lifted as high as 4.81% after rising Monday above the key 4.75% level for the first time since January 2025. The next focus is 5.00%, a level that only traded briefly in late 2023 since 2007.
Japan’s short-term yields rose sharply on BoJ rhetoric and as US Treasury Secretary Bessent was seen encouraging further BoJ action on the sidelines of the G20 summit of central-bank and finance heads in North Carolina. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at a September rate hike and known hawkish BoJ member Takata also weighed in with comments supporting more policy tightening. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose more than five basis points to a new 31-year high of 1.85%. The 10-year JGB yield rose over three basis points Wednesday before dropping back more than two basis points to trade near 3.01% in late trading in Tokyo as Japan’s yield curve flattened.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed slightly, but volatility remains extremely muted, likely as traders mull the risk of USDJPY intervention as that pair wandered to a new one-month high near 160.39 before Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at a September rate hike and BoJ hawk Takata weighed in with hawkish comments. This sent USDJPY back below 160.00 by early trading Wednesday in Europe, even as EURUSD traded near the low of the 24-hour and two-week range at 1.1580.
EURCHF rose to a new high for the year, trading just above the previous high-water mark of 0.9410, with the rise in global bond yields to new cycle highs the likely driver as the SNB maintains a zero-interest-rate policy for now.
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to hike the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, as expected, as the bank said that further tightening was likely, but with the timing uncertain. The policy committee’s average forecast of the RBNZ policy rate for Q1 2027 fell slightly to 2.96% from 3.0% previously. NZDUSD fell from just below 0.5900 before the decision to as low as 0.5826, while AUDNZD rose sharply to 1.2233 from 1.2125, taking the exchange rate back within a stone’s throw of the 13-year high of 1.2288 from earlier this year.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Higher rates are back: The winners and losers of 5% bond yields

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:30:00 Z

Key points:

Cash flow matters more when money is expensive: Companies with strong free cash flow, low leverage and limited refinancing needs are better placed to keep investing and returning capital even when borrowing costs stay high.
Higher rates create clear winners and pressure points: Quality financials, energy, commodities and defensive sectors can prove more resilient, while small caps, property, consumer discretionary and long-duration growth face a higher funding or valuation hurdle.
The reason rates are high still matters: Strong growth can support financials and commodities, while inflation shocks or fiscal stress are more challenging for equities broadly. Higher rates call for selectivity, not simply abandoning risk.

Markets are once again facing higher bond yields across the US and other major economies, raising a tougher question for equity investors: how much should they be willing to pay for stocks when safer assets are offering more attractive returns? Higher yields also matter because they raise the discount rate used to value future earnings, putting pressure on equity multiples — especially for companies whose profits sit further into the future.

But equities still play an important role in protecting purchasing power and capturing long-term growth, especially in an environment where inflation remains a risk. The challenge is finding businesses that can continue delivering earnings and cash flows even when the cost of capital stays elevated.

For investors, that puts cash flow, balance-sheet strength and refinancing needs back at the centre of stock selection. Higher rates can favour businesses generating strong cash flows today, while raising the hurdle for companies whose valuations, growth or business models depend heavily on expensive financing.

What can withstand higher rates?

1. Cash-rich quality

Strong cash generation, low refinancing needs and the ability to fund growth internally can become increasingly valuable as borrowing costs rise. Companies with strong balance sheets are generally less exposed to refinancing pressure and can continue investing even when capital becomes more expensive.

However, strong balance sheets do not eliminate valuation or company-specific risks, and highly valued quality companies can still be vulnerable if earnings disappoint or bond yields rise further.

Illustrative company examples: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Broadcom, Visa, Mastercard

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL)

2. Quality financials

Higher rates can support interest income and reinvestment yields, particularly for well-capitalised banks and insurers. Market volatility can also support exchanges and trading businesses. Companies with stronger balance sheets and diversified revenue streams may be better positioned than the financial sector as a whole.

At the same time, persistently high rates can weaken credit quality, raise funding costs and increase loan losses, so the impact is not uniformly positive across financial companies.

Illustrative company examples: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire Hathaway, Chubb, DBS

Examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE)

3. Energy and commodity producers

Commodity producers can benefit when higher rates are being driven by stronger nominal growth, inflation, supply constraints or geopolitical risks. They can also provide diversification when rising commodity prices are themselves contributing to persistent inflation.

However, commodity equities can be highly volatile and remain sensitive to global growth, commodity prices, regulation and geopolitical developments. A global slowdown accompanied by elevated rates would be considerably less supportive.

Illustrative company examples: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, BHP, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoRan

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), Commodities Select Strategy ETF (COMT), Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF (CMOD)

4. Healthcare and defensive cash flows

Healthcare demand is relatively insensitive to interest rates and the economic cycle. Large pharmaceutical and healthcare companies with strong cash generation may therefore offer relatively resilient earnings if higher rates begin to slow economic growth.

Defensive demand does not remove company-specific risks, including drug-pipeline failures, patent expiries, pricing pressure, regulation and potentially demanding valuations.

Illustrative company examples: Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, AstraZeneca

Examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: iShares Global Healthcare ETF (IXJ), Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)

5. Consumer staples and pricing power

Higher rates may eventually slow household spending, but demand for everyday essentials tends to be more stable. Companies with strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power may be better able to maintain cash generation as financing conditions tighten.

However, staples can still face margin pressure from higher input costs, weaker consumer demand and valuation risk, particularly when defensive sectors trade at elevated multiples.

Illustrative company examples: Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Walmart, Costco, Colgate-Palmolive, Nestlé

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)

Note: The securities mentioned are provided for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment recommendations. Investors should assess individual securities based on their own objectives, risk tolerance and circumstances.

Where are the vulnerabilities?

1. Small caps and highly leveraged companies

Smaller companies often have less access to capital markets and greater reliance on bank loans and shorter-duration borrowing. Refinancing therefore becomes more painful when interest rates remain elevated.

Not every small-cap company is highly leveraged, and companies with strong balance sheets can still outperform. But as a group, smaller companies generally face a higher funding hurdle than large cash-rich businesses.

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SPSM)

2. Rate-sensitive property and housing

Property is one of the clearest areas where higher rates transmit directly into the economy.

For REITs and property companies, higher rates raise refinancing costs and make bond yields more competitive with property income. For homebuilders, elevated mortgage rates can reduce housing affordability and demand.

Strong rental growth, housing shortages and well-managed balance sheets can still offset some of these pressures, so selectivity matters.

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR), SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB)

3. Consumer discretionary

Higher mortgage, auto-loan and credit-card rates reduce disposable income and make consumers more cautious about large or optional purchases. The pressure tends to be greatest for lower-income consumers and businesses dependent on financed purchases.

Not all discretionary spending suffers equally: affluent consumers and companies with strong brands can remain resilient even when rates are high.

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)

4. Long-duration and speculative growth

Higher interest rates raise the discount rate applied to future earnings. That matters most for companies where much of today's valuation depends on profits expected many years from now.

The pressure can be even greater for businesses that are still burning cash and need external funding to grow.

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS)

This is also where the distinction between profitable AI leaders and speculative AI stories becomes increasingly important. High rates do not necessarily hurt technology; they raise the bar on valuation and profitability.

5. Emerging markets with funding pressure

Persistently high US yields can support the dollar and increase financing costs for governments and companies reliant on dollar funding. Markets with large external borrowing requirements can therefore become more vulnerable when global liquidity tightens.

But emerging markets should not be treated as one trade. Commodity exporters, countries with high real yields and economies with strong current-account positions can prove considerably more resilient.

Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Small-Cap ETF (EEMS), iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)

Note: The securities mentioned are provided for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment recommendations. Investors should assess individual securities based on their own objectives, risk tolerance and circumstances.

The bigger message

The key divide in a higher-rate environment is not simply growth versus value or cyclicals versus defensives.

It is increasingly: Cash generators vs. cash borrowers.

Companies with strong free cash flow, manageable debt and pricing power can continue investing even when capital becomes expensive. Businesses dependent on refinancing, cheap mortgages or profits far into the future face a much tougher hurdle.

Higher rates do not mean abandoning equities. They mean being more demanding about what you own.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Macro Commodities Theme Category - Commodities Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil Oil and Gas Theme - Oil and gas majors Theme - Big pharma Consumer Technology Technology UK Portfolio Ideas

Shein finally goes public. Now comes the harder test

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Shein’s advantage comes from testing tiny product batches and scaling winners quickly, not simply from selling cheap clothes.
New tariffs, parcel fees and regulation are making that model more expensive and harder to reproduce across markets.
Inditex and H&M show why brand, inventory discipline and distribution can matter more than pure speed.

Shein taught fashion to behave a little like a social-media feed: test something, watch the reaction, then produce more of what people click on.

On 1 September 2026, the China-founded, Singapore-headquartered retailer finally reached the Hong Kong stock market after failed attempts to list in New York and London. Its initial public offering (IPO) valued the company at roughly USD 26.5 billion, far below the near USD 100 billion valuation reached in 2022. Shares traded below the offer price during their first session.

For investors, the question is not whether Shein can still sell a lot of clothes. It is whether the machinery behind those sales remains as powerful when its regulatory and cost advantages start to fade.

The business model is the product

Shein’s real innovation sits behind the screen.

Traditional fashion retailers often decide months ahead what to sell and in what quantities. Shein instead launches designs in batches as small as 100 to 200 items, watches demand in real time and quickly reorders the products that work.

That can reduce unsold stock and lets Shein offer huge variety without committing as much money upfront. In simple terms, Shein tries to make demand first and inventory second.

But part of this machine was built around cheap cross-border shipping from China. The United States has removed an important duty exemption for low-value packages, while the European Union introduced a EUR 3 fee on many low-value e-commerce parcels in July.

Those changes do not destroy Shein’s model. They make it less frictionless. Local warehouses and production can reduce tariff exposure, but also add cost and complexity. The test is whether Shein can preserve its speed while becoming a more conventional global retailer.

Zara and H&M are slower, but harder to dismiss

This is where Europe’s established fashion groups become useful comparisons.

Inditex owns Zara and combines stores, online sales, tight inventory control and frequent product refreshes. Its first-quarter 2026 results showed sales growth and stronger gross profitability.

H&M is in a different position. Sales have been softer, but the Swedish group has improved profitability and reduced inventory. Its latest results show that better stock management and cost control can still create value when revenue barely moves.

Neither company can match Shein’s endless digital assortment. But speed is not the only useful measure.

Inditex and H&M have established brands, physical distribution and long operating histories. They have already navigated fashion cycles, recessions and competitive shifts. Shein now has to prove that its newer model can survive a similar test.

The hidden cost of becoming normal

The IPO gives Shein capital, visibility and a public valuation. It also removes some of the mystery.

Investors can now watch whether growth returns, margins recover and higher logistics costs eat into each order. The old private-market valuation matters much less than what the business can earn under today’s rules.

The risks are visible. Regulation could make ultra-cheap cross-border fashion more expensive. Competition from Temu, Zara and H&M could push marketing costs higher. Governance also deserves attention because Shein’s founders retain overwhelming voting control after the listing.

Early warning signs include weaker repeat purchases, rising fulfilment and marketing costs, lower margins, or evidence that localising production makes the supply chain less efficient.

Investor playbook

Compare growth with the cost required to produce it. Faster sales matter less if fulfilment and marketing costs rise faster.
Watch inventory and margins together. Strong retailers sell the right products without relying heavily on discounts.
Treat regulation as part of the business model. An advantage built on exemptions is less durable when those exemptions disappear.
Compare Shein with Inditex and H&M on durability, not only growth.

Speed was never the whole moat

Shein’s story began with speed. It could spot a trend, test it cheaply and scale the winners before traditional retailers had finished planning the season. The IPO does not make that advantage disappear, but it changes the question investors need to ask. The contest is no longer about who can move fastest under the old rules.

It is about who can keep moving when the rules, costs and expectations become tougher. Inditex and H&M show that slower systems can still create durable economics through brand, inventory discipline and distribution. Shein now has to prove that its digital engine can do the same. A fashion feed can refresh every second. A listed company has to compound for years.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Commodities are complicating the inflation fight: Renewed strength across energy and agriculture is keeping inflation pressures elevated just as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has revived expectations for further US monetary tightening.
Global bond yields are flashing monetary and fiscal warnings: The US yield curve has bear-steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75%, while German and Japanese yields have reached multi-decade highs amid concerns about inflation, heavy government borrowing and debt sustainability.
Investment metals face a three-pronged headwind: Gold and silver have corrected lower as higher rate expectations, rising yields and a stronger dollar weigh on demand, although longer-term support from fiscal concerns, debasement risks and central-bank buying remains intact.
Industrial metals continue to defy macro headwinds: Supply tightness is partly offsetting the stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs, with zinc reaching a four-year high while copper holds firm near record levels.

Global markets have entered September facing an increasingly uncomfortable combination of rising commodity prices, sticky inflation, higher interest-rate expectations and concerns about government debt sustainability. Commodities sit near the centre of this tension, with renewed strength across energy and agriculture adding to inflation pressures just as central banks signal borrowing costs may need to remain elevated, or even rise further.

The shift accelerated following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday. His renewed focus on restoring price stability prompted markets to increase expectations for further monetary tightening, pushing US yields and the dollar higher.

The move has since broadened beyond the immediate repricing of Fed policy. The US Treasury curve has bear-steepened, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, its highest since January 2025. The selloff has also become global, with Germany's 10-year Bund yield reaching a 15-year high above 3.35%, while Japan's equivalent has reached 3% for the first time in more than three decades.

At the front end, higher yields primarily reflect expectations for tighter monetary policy. Further out, investors are also demanding increased compensation for inflation uncertainty, heavy sovereign issuance and mounting fiscal risks. With US government debt having reached USD 40 trillion, rising borrowing costs risk becoming an increasingly important part of the macroeconomic story.

The commodities driving inflation continue to rise

Tighter financial conditions have so far done little to contain several of the commodity markets contributing most directly to inflation. Since Jackson Hole, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has risen further, led by energy, grains and soft commodities, while precious metals have fallen. Put simply, the commodities creating the inflation problem have continued higher, while those traditionally bought to protect against its consequences have retreated.

Energy remains the most immediate source of pressure. Crude oil has risen for a second session after renewed US-Iran hostilities raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has moved back above USD 92 per barrel, while already tight refined-product markets remain particularly exposed.

In Europe, gasoil futures, the benchmark for diesel and jet fuel, trade above USD 183 per barrel, while natural gas has reached EUR 71.5/MWh, equivalent to roughly USD 24.3/MMBtu and more than eight times the US price. These elevated costs highlight Europe's continued dependence on imported energy and vulnerability to supply disruptions.

Diesel's inflation impact extends well beyond transport into freight, agriculture, mining, construction and industrial production, while expensive natural gas raises electricity and manufacturing costs. This represents a supply-driven inflation shock that monetary policy cannot directly resolve. Central banks can suppress demand, but they cannot produce additional crude oil, refining capacity or natural gas.

In simple terms, the commodities creating the inflation problem have continued higher, while the commodities traditionally bought to protect against its consequences have fallen.

Food adds a second inflation front

The Bloomberg Commodity Agriculture Total Return Index ended August at a 14-year high after surging 12.4% during the month. Strong gains across grains and soft commodities, led by sugar, wheat and corn, more than offset weakness in livestock. Weather disruptions are affecting crops around the world, while renewed fighting between Russia and Ukraine has targeted critical export infrastructure around the Black Sea. With the region accounting for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, supply concerns have helped lift wheat prices towards a three-year high.

Unlike energy, where higher prices feed relatively quickly into headline inflation, rising agricultural costs often take longer to reach consumers through processing, transportation and retail channels. The latest rally therefore raises the risk that food inflation remains elevated even if energy prices eventually stabilise. Together, energy and agriculture leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off: inflation is being supported by supply constraints and geopolitical disruption, while tighter monetary policy risks putting additional pressure on economic activity and already stretched government finances.

Investment metals feel the heat

Precious metals have taken the brunt of the monetary repricing. Gold and silver have both fallen by more than 4% since Friday as Warsh's speech produced three immediate headwinds: higher short-term rate expectations, rising real and nominal yields, and a stronger US dollar.

The dollar has retained much of its post-Jackson Hole strength, while breaks below key technical support levels have triggered additional long liquidation from momentum-focused traders. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, while a stronger dollar raises their cost for non-US investors.

However, the longer-term implications are less straightforward. Higher real rates driven by a credible inflation-fighting central bank are normally negative for gold. Higher long-term yields increasingly driven by concerns about debt sustainability, heavy sovereign issuance and fiscal credibility are a different matter.

Persistently rising debt-servicing costs may eventually increase pressure on policymakers to prevent long-term borrowing costs from rising indefinitely. Gold therefore remains caught between two opposing forces: the immediate cost of money and longer-term concerns about the quantity and credibility of money. Continued central-bank demand and reserve diversification provide another structural source of support that is less sensitive to short-term changes in US rates.

Industrial metals defy the stronger dollar

Interestingly, weakness in investment metals has not spread meaningfully to industrial metals. Ordinarily, a stronger dollar, higher yields and rising funding costs would represent a challenging combination for cyclically sensitive metals. Instead, persistent supply-side turbulence continues to offset concerns about demand and tighter financial conditions.

Zinc has become the latest example, rising towards USD 4,000 per tonne on the LME and reaching its highest level since May 2022. Falling refined inventories outside China, constrained raw-material availability and tight positioning have supported the rally.

Copper has also remained resilient after recently reaching record levels, with LME copper holding above USD 14,000 per tonne. Tight nearby availability and large volumes being pulled towards the US continue to support prices, while backwardation in both copper and zinc signals physical tightness.

Supply challenges were highlighted by the latest production update from Chile, where statistics agency INE said output in the world's largest copper-producing country fell 9.4% year-on-year in July after severe storms struck mining regions. The divergence between precious and industrial metals underlines that the current commodity rally is not simply a monetary phenomenon. Where physical availability is sufficiently tight, supply constraints continue to override macroeconomic headwinds.

An increasingly difficult policy mix

The coming weeks may determine which of these forces dominates. Further strength in oil, refined products and food could keep inflation expectations elevated and reinforce expectations for additional monetary tightening. That would remain a near-term headwind for gold and silver while potentially weighing on broader risk appetite and commodity demand.

At the same time, higher policy rates and rising long-term yields increase borrowing costs across economies already carrying historically large debt burdens. The longer rates stay elevated, the greater the fiscal strain and the stronger the potential focus on debt sustainability, currency debasement and eventual policy intervention.

Commodities are therefore caught between rising rates and rising inflation, but the pressures are far from uniform. Energy and agriculture continue to benefit from scarcity and geopolitical disruption, industrial metals remain supported by tight supply, while gold and silver are temporarily paying the price for tighter monetary conditions and a stronger dollar.

The paradox is that if rising commodity prices force interest rates higher for longer, the resulting pressure on heavily indebted governments could eventually revive the fiscal and debasement concerns that have been among the strongest structural drivers of investment demand for precious metals.

Commodities post Jackson Hole - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold being weighed down by rate hike expectations and rising bond yields - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo

Related articles/content
29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026 28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

29 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026
28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Agriculture Gold Silver Copper Corn Wheat Sugar

Global yield breakout dominates market focus.

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:04:00 Z

Japan's JGB's hit 30-year high yield.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Market Quick Take - Renewed Iran strikes lift crude while the US 10-year tops 4.75% - 01 September 2026

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Stocks fall as higher oil prices and rising global bond yields weigh on markets
Equities: US and European stocks fell as oil and yields rose, Asian markets weakened, with Shein sliding on its Hong Kong debut.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities snapped back hard while the coins themselves barely moved overnight
Commodities: Crude rises on supply risks; gold steadies after two-session retreat; agriculture hits fresh multi-year high
Fixed Income: US 10-year yield clears 4.75% for first time in 19 months. The 10-year German Bund yield hits 15-year high. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield hit a 30-year high.
Currencies: USD volatility muted, JPY and CHF weak on rising global bond yields.

Macro

US and Iran resumed hostilities. US forces struck Iranian launchers and President Trump threatened Kharg Island, while Iran retaliated against the UAE and Jordan. Crude still transits the Strait of Hormuz despite a supertanker fire caused by naval mines, and Russian strikes on refineries appear to be tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins.
Washington leaned on the Bank of Japan. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly told Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama at the G20 in North Carolina that Japan's next move should be a rate hike, adding that he expects a stronger yen once the central bank and the government act.
European inflation firmed while US survey data improved. German inflation rose to 2.9% in August, a four-month high just under the 3.0% consensus, with energy inflation at 10.5% and core steady at 2.4%. UK shop price inflation climbed to 1.5% from 0.9%, the highest since February 2024. The Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing index jumped to 11.6 from 1.3, its best since January 2025.
The week's calendar starts today. US ISM manufacturing is expected at 55.2 against 55.6 previously, alongside JOLTS job openings and construction spending. August payrolls land on Friday 4 September, into a market now pricing a September Fed hike.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Aug. Nationwide House Prices
0900 – Eurozone Flash Aug. CPI
1345 – US Aug. ISM Manufacturing
1400 – US July Construction Spending
1400 – US July JOLTS Job Openings
0130 – Australia Q2 GDP
0200 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate

Earnings events

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second straight decline, while the Dow dropped 0.7% to 53,186 and the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured most sectors as renewed US-Iran tensions revived inflation concerns. Amazon fell 2.5% after the Federal Trade Commission sued over alleged ad-pricing practices, while Edison International plunged 23.1% after California wildfire legislation disappointed utilities. Nvidia gained 1.5% after committing $3.5 billion to MediaTek. Investors now turn to this week’s labour data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.6% to 651, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.0% to 6,420 and Germany’s DAX lost 1.2% to 26,258 as higher oil prices and bond yields weighed on risk appetite. London was closed for the Summer Bank Holiday, leaving trading volumes unusually light. ASML fell 2.9% as rate-sensitive technology weakened, while Siemens Energy dropped 5.0%. Energy names moved the other way as Brent traded above $90, with Eni up 2.3% and TotalEnergies gaining 1.2%. Investors now watch euro-area inflation data as markets weigh the risk of another European Central Bank rate increase.
Asia: Asian equities traded lower on Tuesday as oil above $90 and rising global bond yields revived inflation concerns. Around midday, Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.0%, South Korea’s Kospi hovered near flat after an early drop, and China’s CSI 300 was little changed. MediaTek surged 9.9% to its daily limit after Nvidia’s $3.5 billion investment deepened their AI-chip partnership, while Shein fell about 8.0% on its Hong Kong debut after raising $1.7 billion at a roughly $26.5 billion valuation. The weak debut highlighted investor caution toward consumer growth stories as AI and semiconductor names continue to attract stronger demand.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Listed crypto rebounded sharply from Friday's slide. Circle led at 9.65%, with BitMine 6.39% higher, Coinbase 5.31%, IREN 4.70% and Strategy 4.42%, while the spot bitcoin and ether funds each added close to 2%. Deribit’s DVOL eased to 37.41, which in our view leaves implied volatility near the lower end of its recent range.
On the structural side, the US Crypto Clarity Act fell short of the 60 votes needed before the August recess, pushing the earliest new vote to mid-September. Thailand's regulator is consulting on draft spot bitcoin and ether fund rules until 20 September.

Commodities

Precious metals: Gold and silver remain challenged by another rise in global bond yields to their highest in almost two decades, as rising oil and food prices stoke inflation concerns that could force central banks to raise rates, increasing the funding cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. These headwinds are being partly offset by investors seeking protection in hard assets amid concerns over elevated and rising government debt levels, and the increased cost of servicing this debt. Gold has so far retraced only 38.2% of its August rally, which in technical terms is considered a relatively shallow correction within an established uptrend. For that picture to change, prices would need to break below a band of support in the USD 4,200–4,240 area. Conversely, a move back above the 200-day moving average could attract renewed demand on the view that the latest correction has run its course.
Oil: Crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded back above USD 91 after US forces struck an island in the Strait, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on the UAE and Jordan.
European energy: European diesel prices rose to USD 181 per barrel, while natural gas climbed to EUR 70.6/MWh, equivalent to around USD 24/MMBtu and more than eight times the US price. The widening energy cost gap highlights Europe’s dependence on imports and its vulnerability to supply disruptions, given limited local production and limited refinery capacity.
Agriculture: The BCOM Agriculture Total Return Index ended August at a 14-year high after surging 12.4% during the month. Strong gains across grains and soft commodities, led by sugar, wheat and corn, more than offset a monthly decline in livestock after President Trump moved to allow increased imports of foreign beef in an effort to curb elevated domestic prices.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve continued to lift, this time in a bear-steepening move as long-dated Treasury yields rose faster than yields at the front of the curve, as the market remains unsure how aggressively to price in Fed policy tightening after Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech on Friday. The benchmark 2-year yield rose back to Friday’s highs near 4.36% Monday, just a basis point shy of the 4.37% high from July, which is the highest level since February 2025. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.75% for the first time this year and since January 2025, trading at 4.78% early Tuesday.
Global bond yields all rose on Monday, many to multi-year highs. The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose more than four basis points to above 3.32%, a 15-year high. Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB yield lifted more than four basis points to trade above 3.00% for the first time in over 30 years.

Currencies

The US dollar traded sideways to slightly lower Monday even as US Treasury yields continued to rise in the wake of Friday’s hawkish speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1625 early Tuesday before drifting back toward 1.1600, while USDJPY rose back above 159.80 after lows near 159.50 on Tuesday.
The Swiss franc dipped to an almost two-week low versus the euro, as EURCHF pulled toward 0.9400 early Tuesday, with the cycle and 12-month high from early August at 0.9411, as global bond yields rose, encouraging carry traders funding in francs.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Higher oil = higher energy? It’s not that simple

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:00:00 Z

Key points:

Energy is becoming more relevant in portfolios again. Middle East disruption has revived the role of energy as a geopolitical and inflation hedge, while Venezuela shows how the global supply map can also evolve.
Energy is not one trade. Oil producers, refiners, pipelines, LNG, power generators and grid companies sit at different points of the value chain and respond to very different drivers.
The longer-term opportunity is broadening beyond traditional hydrocarbons. EVs challenge road-fuel demand, but AI, electrification, LNG, nuclear and grid investment are creating another energy investment cycle.

Why energy matters again

Energy is back on investors’ radar for two very different reasons.

The first is geopolitics. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have brought energy security and inflation risks back into portfolio discussions. Supply shocks can push oil higher even when underlying global demand is mediocre.

But there is another side to that story. Venezuela is reopening to more foreign investment and could gradually increase production. It will not replace disrupted Middle Eastern barrels overnight — infrastructure, heavy crude and execution remain constraints — but it shows how higher prices and changing geopolitics can eventually bring new supply back to market.

The second force is structural. The world is consuming energy differently.

EVs are reducing demand for petrol and diesel, but they also increase electricity consumption. AI data centres, manufacturing and cooling are adding another layer of power demand just as electricity grids in many economies are already struggling to keep up.

This creates an unusual backdrop: the long-term outlook for oil demand is becoming less certain at exactly the same time that investment needs across the broader energy system are rising.

For investors, the important question is therefore not simply whether oil goes up or down. It is where scarcity is developing across the energy value chain.

The energy value chain: what are you actually investing in?

A $10 move in crude does not affect every energy company in the same way. Understanding where a company sits in the value chain is critical.

Oil and gas producers: owning the commodity

Upstream companies explore for and produce oil and natural gas. ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum are examples.

They provide some of the most direct equity sensitivity to commodity prices. Once production costs are covered, higher prices can translate into disproportionately stronger cash flows.

The main drivers are oil and gas prices, production costs, reserve quality and capital discipline.

Integrated majors: diversifying across the chain

ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies combine upstream production with refining, LNG, chemicals and trading.

That diversification generally makes earnings less sensitive to a single commodity than pure producers and can provide greater cash-flow resilience across different market environments.

Oilfield services: the capex trade

SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes supply drilling technology, equipment and services to producers.

Their key driver is not today's oil price but producer capital expenditure.

A temporary geopolitical spike may change very little. But if prices remain high enough for long enough to encourage new fields and additional drilling, oilfield services can become a major second-order beneficiary.

Midstream and LNG: moving and storing energy

Williams, Kinder Morgan and Enbridge own pipelines, processing plants and storage infrastructure.

Their revenues tend to depend more on volumes and long-term contracts than on the daily commodity price, giving them more infrastructure- and income-like characteristics.

LNG extends this chain. Liquefying natural gas allows it to be shipped globally, linking regional gas markets and making LNG infrastructure increasingly important for energy security.

Refiners: owning the margin, not the barrel

Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 buy crude and convert it into petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

Their main driver is the refining margin — the difference between crude input costs and the price of finished products.

That means higher oil prices are not automatically positive. A crude shortage can raise input costs, while shortages of diesel or jet fuel can widen refining margins significantly.

A crude shortage and a refined-product shortage are therefore different investment calls.

Power generators and utilities: producing electricity

Electricity creates a second energy value chain.

Regulated utilities such as Duke Energy, Southern Company and American Electric Power invest in generation and networks and typically earn regulated returns on those assets.

Merchant power producers such as Constellation Energy and Vistra have greater exposure to wholesale electricity and capacity prices. Existing nuclear and gas plants can become particularly valuable when electricity supply is constrained.

Renewables sit within this generation mix too. Rising power demand does not necessarily require one source of generation to eliminate the others.

Grids and electrical equipment: delivering power

Generation is only useful if electricity can reach consumers.

Transmission lines, transformers, substations, switchgear and distribution networks are therefore becoming critical infrastructure.

Companies such as GE Vernova, Eaton, Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy supply the equipment, while companies such as Quanta Services help build and maintain the networks.

This is an important structural feature of the theme because it is relatively agnostic about the ultimate generation mix.

Gas, nuclear and renewables all require substantial grid investment, while data centres add another source of demand for that infrastructure.

How investors can position: four energy scenarios

Rather than treating energy as a single sector allocation, investors can match exposure to the macro environment they expect.

Scenario	What is driving it?	Areas to consider
1. Geopolitical supply shock	Middle East disruption, sanctions or shipping constraints keep oil scarce	Upstream producers and integrated majors
2. High prices trigger a capex cycle	Oil and gas remain expensive long enough to encourage new investment	Producers initially; then oilfield services, pipelines and LNG infrastructure
3. Supply expands while oil demand softens	Venezuela/non-OPEC supply rises as EVs and slower demand challenge oil	Reduce high-beta upstream; favour contracted infrastructure and more diversified energy exposure
4. Electricity becomes the structural growth trade	AI, data centres, EVs and grid constraints drive sustained power investment	Power generators, nuclear, utilities, electrical equipment and grid construction

Scenario 1: Geopolitics remains the dominant driver

This is closest to the current Middle East environment.

If physical supply remains disrupted, upstream producers provide the clearest oil-price sensitivity, while integrated majors offer a more diversified way of expressing the same view.

But investors should not assume all energy companies benefit equally. Pipelines are primarily volume-driven, oilfield services need a sustained spending response, and refiners depend on product margins rather than simply higher crude.

The shorter and sharper the shock, the more important this distinction becomes.

Scenario 2: High energy prices become a capex story

The opportunity changes if high oil and gas prices persist.

Initially, producers capture the higher commodity price. But over time, stronger cash flows and greater confidence in future prices can encourage drilling, field development and infrastructure spending.

That broadens the opportunity towards oilfield services, pipelines and LNG infrastructure.

This is when energy moves from being simply a commodity-price trade to becoming an investment-cycle trade.

Venezuela illustrates this dynamic too. Bringing more production back online requires investment in fields, infrastructure and equipment even if those additional barrels eventually put downward pressure on global oil prices.

Scenario 3: More supply meets weaker oil-demand growth

This is the key counterweight to the bullish oil story.

On the supply side, Venezuela and other non-OPEC producers can gradually add production. On the demand side, EV adoption, efficiency gains and potentially softer global growth can constrain oil consumption.

If additional supply arrives at the same time that demand growth disappoints, the greatest pressure is likely to fall on higher-cost and higher-beta upstream producers.

That does not make the broader energy theme unattractive. It instead argues for shifting exposure towards businesses where earnings depend less on the spot oil price — including integrated majors, contracted pipelines and parts of the power infrastructure value chain.

Venezuela captures the nuance well: more Venezuelan production can be bearish for the commodity while still creating opportunities in the capital spending needed to bring those barrels to market.

Scenario 4: Electricity becomes the structural growth trade

This is the scenario we think deserves increasing attention over a multi-year horizon.

Electricity demand is entering a stronger growth phase as AI data centres, EVs, manufacturing and cooling requirements increase consumption. At the same time, generation and grid capacity cannot be expanded overnight.

The opportunity therefore runs across several parts of the value chain:

Power generators where electricity and capacity are scarce;
nuclear generation as demand grows for reliable baseload power;
regulated utilities investing in generation and transmission;
electrical-equipment suppliers providing transformers, turbines and switchgear;
grid construction and engineering as connection bottlenecks intensify.

Importantly, much of this opportunity does not sit inside traditional Energy indices. It is spread across Utilities and Industrials.

That means investors relying only on conventional oil-heavy energy ETFs may be underexposed to what could become the more durable part of the energy investment cycle.

Our view: diversify the energy allocation beyond oil

Our preference is not to make one large directional call on crude.

Near-term geopolitical risks still justify exposure to traditional energy. Oil producers and integrated majors can provide useful sensitivity to supply shocks and inflation, particularly while Middle East risks remain elevated.

But we would be cautious about extrapolating today's high oil prices indefinitely. Higher prices encourage additional supply, Venezuela is gradually re-entering the investment landscape, and EV adoption is becoming a more meaningful constraint on long-term road-fuel demand.

For longer-term allocations, we see a stronger case for broadening energy exposure towards the infrastructure required to meet rising electricity demand.

That suggests three portfolio actions:

Keep some traditional energy exposure for geopolitical and inflation sensitivity, with integrated majors offering broader exposure than pure commodity beta.
Use oilfield services and midstream selectively when there is evidence that high prices are translating into a sustained capex cycle rather than simply a short-lived oil spike.
Build structural exposure to power and grid infrastructure through power generation, nuclear, regulated utilities, electrical equipment and grid investment.

Our bias is therefore to treat traditional oil and gas as an important tactical and diversification allocation, while viewing power generation and infrastructure as the stronger multi-year structural opportunity.

That does not mean oil disappears from portfolios. It means the energy allocation should evolve with the energy system itself.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Macro Commodities Theme Category - Commodities Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil Oil and Gas Theme - Oil and gas majors

The FX Trader: Restrained USD reaction to Warsh hawkishness

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:05:00 Z

Incoming data to take over this week.

The latest

The market was caught off guard by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday. The reaction function – more in gold and US treasuries than in the stronger US dollar – was to a large degree the US Treasury’s fault. When the Bessent Treasury recently announced the doubling of long-term treasury buybacks on August 19th and the idea was even floated (according to two Treasury officials cited by CNBC’s Steve Liesman) of the Treasury using its large “General Account” to throw its weight into supporting the US treasury market, it felt like US officialdom was circling the wagons around the US treasury market. And with increasing talk in recent years of “fiscal dominance”, in which US fiscal policy priorities far outweigh anything the Fed might consider doing with monetary policy, it was thought that the new Fed chair was brought on board to support the Treasury.

Instead, Chair Warsh has consistently made all the “right” orthodox noises on Fed independence, on the need to get ahead of inflation and on the sanctity of the 2% inflation target. That was the impression at his first presser as Fed Chair back at the June FOMC meeting, and it was the impression on Friday, even if he continues to avoid explicit forward guidance for the September rate hike decision. Warsh said that the Fed has “work to do” if inflation doesn’t retreat and said that financial conditions weren’t holding the economy back, while adjusting short-term interest rates are the Fed’s “predominant tool”. His rhetoric Friday shocked US treasury yields higher, especially at the short end of the curve as more Fed tightening was brought forward. The US 2-year rose more than 10 basis points at one point and the odds of a hike at the September meeting rose above 60%. And yet, we are still talking about a “terminal” Fed policy rate, if they do resume hiking, of only 50 basis points higher than the current rate – it would likely take considerable incoming data evidence on the inflation front to take Fed expectations higher still, assuming the labor market remains in its “low hire, low fire” state. The USD spiked higher, but we only trade back to 1.1600 in EURUSD now versus 1.1640 before the Warsh speech. USDJPY has reset back to levels prevailing just before Warsh spoke – interesting to note there that Japan said it had plowed over JPY 15 trillion (close to USD 100 billion) into defending its currency over the last month, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the BoJ would “do the right thing” in making coming policy decisions.

Bottom line: Follow on USD strength from here would likely have to come from incoming data more than the specific implications of this speech. We’ll get a decent amount of that this week (see preview below) but also watch oil prices and next week’s CPI data point as well. The longer end of the US yield curve and whether yields are positively correlated with the US dollar or uncorrelated is also critical. Recently, long US yields and the US dollar have arguably been slightly negatively correlated if there is any relationship at all. Given the timing of the US Treasury’s soft “intervention” - its announcement of buyback increases - with the break of the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield to 19-year highs, it is logical to conclude that the next US Treasury policy measures to support the treasury market will be reached for quickly if, for example, the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield breaks sharply above the recent 4.75% cycle high that was tested multiple times.

Chart focus: EURUSD
Note how the EURUSD sell-off almost neatly reverses the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement from August 19th. This is a short-term reset of that extension to the upside, not yet a full reversal, which only starts to threaten if the price action continues down through 1.1580 (the previous high), although a punch down through 1.1450-1.1500 would be needed to develop any downside momentum and a retest of the longer-term range lows. The upside path is simpler, as a reversal of this latest sell-off wave would suggest the recent larger bull move off the sub-1.1400 base remains intact. In the big picture, EURUSD has been impossibly mired in the 1.1400-1.1800 range for over fourteen months except for a few spikes. The pair is almost exactly in the very middle of the range of the last many months.

Source: Saxo

Looking ahead

It’s a busy week ahead for US macro data as we watch whether the market extends its reaction to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. This week we get the usual first-of-month data with the August ISM Manufacturing survey up on Tuesday, which also sees the July JOLTS job opening survey (poor quality and old-ish data, but the market reacts to surprises). On Wednesday we get the August ADP private payrolls change numbers (a typical soft +50k number expected there). On Thursday it’s the ISM Services survey. Finally, Friday sees the August jobs report ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. The market is expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of +50k after -23k in July, +20k in June and +63k in May.

The RBNZ set to continue it hiking cycle Wednesday.
The Bank is expected to follow up on its first-of-the-cycle July hike with another hike on Wednesday, with the forward guidance in focus as the market sees at least two hikes over the next three meetings, including this week’s.

Bank of Canada on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada meeting will likely have Governor Tiff Macklem and company sitting on their hands, with little sense of being in a rush to do otherwise. Canada’s core inflation measure, the “trimmed mean” dropped to a more than five-year low in June and July of 1.9% after a persistent slide in the previous months. As well, the US and Canada are engaged in a trade tiff that will hit Canada far harder if the situation escalates.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

No surprise to see that the two weakest currencies (SEK, CHF) are Europe’s lowest yielding currencies, with CHF weakest while SEK is also weak from two angles: traditionally it is a pro-cyclical currency and traditionally does poorly when risk sentiment is on the defensive, but it’s more likely that the Riksbank’s low 1.75% policy rate and lack of urgency in moving that rate higher is the largest driver of SEK weakness, notable since Friday as EURSEK burst to a new 12 month high above 11.115. While the US dollar has turned around a bit in momentum terms, there is a lot more wood to chop to suggest it is powering up for a larger strengthening move. Sterling actually traded weaker Monday after BoE Governor Bailey said that the BoE would be happy to wait for a while before deciding on policy moves due to the slackening UK labor market. He also said that AI risks triggering a global economic downturn and risks to global financial stability.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

AUDNZD is attempting to establish a new uptrend, with the Wednesday RBNZ meeting a key test there. It is far too early to point to new USD developments and the deep blue colors in so many pairs point to the very low volatility (often meeting lack of conviction in market direction) nearly everywhere outside of gold and silver.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Broadcom vs Marvell: the custom-chip boom has an expectations problem

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Custom AI chips are becoming a second growth engine alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell competing for Big Tech designs.
Marvell shows how strong results can disappoint when investors have already priced in even faster growth.
Broadcom’s Wednesday earnings will test both the custom-chip boom and investors’ increasingly demanding expectations.

A company can report record revenue, raise its outlook and tell investors that an important business will more than double next year. Its shares can still fall 10%.

Marvell Technology managed exactly that last week.

The chip designer raised its longer-term revenue expectations as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure accelerated. Yet Marvell closed at 216.62 USD on 28 August, down 10.3%, because investors wanted its new Google custom-chip partnership to generate meaningful revenue sooner.

That reaction offers a useful preview for Broadcom, which reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, 2 September. It also captures one of today’s most important investing lessons: great company plus great results does not automatically equal a great stock return. Expectations sit in the middle.

The chip is getting personal

Nvidia built the AI boom around the graphics processing unit (GPU), a flexible chip capable of handling many different computing tasks.

But flexibility is not always the cheapest option.

As AI moves from training models towards repeatedly running them for millions of users, known as inference, efficiency matters more. Google, Meta, OpenAI and other large technology companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Think of the difference between a Swiss Army knife and a factory machine. Nvidia sells an exceptionally capable Swiss Army knife. Custom silicon is the machine built to perform one job repeatedly and efficiently.

This creates an expanding market for companies such as Broadcom and Marvell. They help customers turn their own chip ideas into products and also supply much of the networking technology connecting thousands of processors inside data centres.

The race is becoming more competitive. Google recently expanded its relationship with Marvell across custom processors, networking and memory technologies. The agreement could eventually generate up to 120 billion USD of orders through fiscal 2033. Importantly, Google appears to be adding Marvell alongside Broadcom rather than simply replacing Broadcom.

Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.

The important point is not that custom chips replace Nvidia. Big technology companies increasingly use several types of processors. The AI semiconductor market is becoming larger and more specialised at the same time.

Marvell delivered. Expectations moved faster

That sounds ideal for Marvell.

Quarterly revenue reached 2.74 billion USD, while management lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to around 12 billion USD and fiscal 2028 expectations to around 18 billion USD. Custom-chip revenue is expected to more than double next year.

The problem was timing.

Management indicated that the largest contribution from Google would arrive from fiscal 2029. Investors had already pushed Marvell shares sharply higher this year partly because they expected custom silicon to become a much larger business.

The result was therefore good, but the change in expectations was not good enough.

Compare that with Salesforce and CrowdStrike one day earlier.

Salesforce, which sells software that helps companies manage customers and sales, raised its annual outlook and showed better demand for its AI products. Its shares closed at 252.05 USD, up 22.6%.

CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, reported record net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of new subscription business. Its shares closed at 227.96 USD, up 20.5%.

Why such different reactions? Salesforce and CrowdStrike entered earnings carrying fears that AI could disrupt software. Strong results reduced that fear. Marvell entered earnings carrying enormous optimism. Strong results confirmed much of the existing story rather than improving it.

That is the expectations game in one earnings week.

Broadcom now has to clear its own bar

Broadcom faces an unusually high hurdle on Wednesday.

Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%. Total revenue guidance stands around 29.4 billion USD.

Those numbers would normally look extraordinary. The complication is that extraordinary has become normal for leading AI companies.

Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.

Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.

Broadcom’s advantage is that it can potentially collect revenue twice. It helps design specialised processors, then sells networking and connectivity products needed to make large clusters of those processors work together.

Risks: a bigger market can still disappoint

Custom silicon remains tied to a relatively small number of enormous customers. A delayed chip programme, lower infrastructure spending or a customer moving more work to another supplier can shift billions of future revenue.

Competition is also increasing. Marvell’s Google win shows that customers may deliberately use several suppliers. That expands the overall opportunity, but makes market share less predictable.

Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.

Investor playbook

Separate results from expectations. Ask what investors appeared to expect before earnings, not simply whether revenue grew.
Follow timelines, not deal headlines. A large contract matters differently if revenue arrives next quarter rather than three years later.
Watch customer diversification. More custom-chip customers can strengthen growth, while supplier diversification can increase competitive pressure.
Treat share reactions as information, not verdicts. A falling stock can reflect lower expectations rather than worsening business fundamentals.

The business reports the numbers. The market grades the expectations

Broadcom’s earnings on 2 September will therefore test more than one company. They will test whether custom silicon is becoming a durable second pillar of AI infrastructure alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, and how much of that opportunity investors already assume.

Marvell has already shown the strange arithmetic of an optimistic market: revenue can rise, forecasts can rise and the share price can still fall. Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed the reverse when good results removed a major fear.

For investors, that distinction matters. Earnings tell you how the business performed. The share-price reaction tells you how that performance compared with the story investors had already paid for.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Warsh spoils the gold party. Busy week ahead.

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:27:00 Z

Fed Chair Warsh talks up Fed's need to fight inflation.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

COT update: Agriculture buying accelerates as funds rush into grains and softs

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 25 August 2026.
Dollar longs cut after the Treasury buyback: Speculators reduced the aggregate dollar long by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, led by short covering in the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar, while yen selling continued amid unfavourable US-Japan rate differentials.
Agriculture length surges at a record pace: The managed-money net long across ten major grains and softs jumped at the fastest pace on record, with corn, sugar, cotton and Kansas wheat reaching multi-year positioning highs, while CBOT wheat remained net short ahead of an 11% price surge as worsening Black Sea supply risks forced shorts to retreat.
Metals and energy positioning diverge: Gold futures buying remained relatively restrained despite a 6.2% rally, while copper length eased from elevated levels. In energy, funds cut Brent longs by 11% as increased Hormuz flows reduced the Middle East risk premium.

Forex

The COT update on forex covering the week to 25 August captured the aftermath of the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement, which initially weakened the dollar before some buying returned later in the reporting period. Overall, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ended the reporting week down around 0.8%, before fully reversing the buyback-driven decline by last Friday following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.

Against this backdrop, the initial reaction was unsurprisingly one of dollar-long liquidation, with speculators turning net buyers of most of the eight IMM currency futures tracked in this report. The main exception was the Japanese yen. Overall, the aggregate speculative dollar long was cut by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, extending a sharp reversal from the record long of around USD 50 billion reached just one month earlier.

At the individual currency level, the euro short was cut by 38% after speculators bought a net 22.7k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.3 billion, leaving the net short at USD 5.3 billion. The Canadian dollar saw its net short reduced by 23%, or USD 2.7 billion, following net buying of 36.6k contracts. The Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar also attracted sizeable short covering, each seeing their respective dollar-equivalent shorts reduced by around USD 1.1 billion.

Sterling and the Australian dollar also saw modest net buying, although both remained firmly net short, while the Mexican peso continued to stand out as the only currency among the eight carrying a speculative net long against the dollar. Its relative strength continues to be supported by favourable rate differentials - the same dynamic, but in reverse, that continues to weigh on the Japanese yen.

Going against the broader trend, the yen saw net selling for a second consecutive week, with speculators selling 10.4k contracts and lifting the net short to 63.3k contracts, or around USD 5 billion. The divergence highlights the continued importance of relative rate expectations, with the still-wide US-Japan yield differential limiting the yen's ability to benefit from the broader bout of dollar weakness.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

In commodities, the latest reporting week to 25 August covered the period following the surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar weakness provided broader support across the commodity complex. It was also a week in which the geopolitical temperature rose in and around the Black Sea region while a temporary easing in the Middle East contributed to an increase in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a partial unwinding of the oil market's geopolitical risk premium.

During the week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.1%, with strong gains across agriculture excluding livestock and, not least, precious metals, while industrial metals also advanced. These gains more than offset losses across the energy sector. Speculators responded by cutting length in Brent crude, soybean oil and livestock, while most other markets saw net buying. Once again, the strongest appetite was concentrated in grains and softs, a sector that in a matter of weeks has moved from being relatively under-owned to carrying an increasingly sizeable speculative long.

Elsewhere, the positioning response to strong gains across the investment metals was relatively muted. Gold rose 6.2% during the reporting week, while the managed-money net long increased by just 4% to 151.3k contracts, leaving it close to its one-year high. Silver and platinum saw larger percentage increases albeit from considerably smaller starting positions. This suggests that the strong price response to the Treasury announcement was not accompanied by an equally aggressive build-up in futures positioning, potentially pointing to demand coming from other sources as well.

On Friday, gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into today's session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus on the dollar and bond yields considering the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.

Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Agriculture: Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in this report, the combined managed-money net long has now in the past two weeks surged by 546k contracts, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, with the combined position having been close to neutral only a few months ago.

The buying was led by corn, where funds added a net 126k contracts to lift the net long to 376.5k contracts, the highest in more than four years. Soybeans also attracted sizeable demand, with the net long rising by 46.6k contracts to 198.3k, while sugar saw another 55.7k contracts of net buying, lifting the position to a fresh two-year high of 207.1k contracts. Cotton also reached a two-year high at 95.8k contracts, while the Kansas City wheat net long rose to 44.1k contracts, a four-year high.

One notable exception was CBOT wheat, where speculators, despite some short covering, still held a net short position of more than 100,000 contracts by last Tuesday. This helps explain why prices jumped more than 11% in the days that followed, as short sellers retreated on news that Russian exports had slowed sharply and disruptions to Ukrainian shipments increasingly threatened not only current exports but also future planting. The fundamental backdrop has therefore become considerably less comfortable for remaining wheat shorts.

Grains and softs combined net long - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Key agriculture commodity positioning - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Major energy and metal futures positioning - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, and Other Reportables
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds, and Other Reportables
Forex: A broader breakdown between commercial and non-commercial participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators

The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:

They are more likely to have tight stops and no underlying physical exposure that needs to be hedged
This makes them more reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
Their positioning provides insight into major trends, while extreme positions can also help identify when a reversal or correction may be looming

It is worth noting that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate and amplify price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a trough in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.

Related articles/content
28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally 26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

28 Aug 2026: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

Market Quick Take - Warsh turns hawkish as Hormuz risk returns - 31 August 2026

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A weekend strike near Hormuz collided with a hawkish Fed chair to reset the week
Equities: US stocks slipped on hawkish Fed signals, Europe rebounded, Asia recovered from early losses as rate fears and higher oil hit technology.
Digital Assets: Miners and treasury companies were sold hard while the coins themselves barely moved
Commodities: Crude jumps on renewed supply risks as Warsh drives precious metals slump; speculators rush into agriculture at record pace
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve bear flattens on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday. Global yields follow US Treasury yields higher.
Currencies: USD stronger on hawkish Warsh speech, USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00.

Macro

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday as he declared that inflation is not slowing and that interest rates are the “predominant tool” for the Fed to achieve its mandate, though he continued to criticize the notion of the Fed’s former forward guidance policy or to provide any specific hints on policy tightening. “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Bank of Japan will “do the right thing” on policy and said he expected to meet with Bank of Japan governor Ueda on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit, which starts today in North Carolina. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Friday that its intervention to support the JPY had deployed over JPY 15 trillion (USD 96 billion).
A weekend military exchange reset the geopolitical backdrop. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, its first such attack in over a month, alongside increased sanctions pressure. Roughly 6 to 8 million barrels of crude still transit the strait each day. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington are not impossible.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1200 – Germany Flash Aug. CPI
UK Summer Bank Holiday

Earnings events

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares. Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations. PayPal tumbled 12.7% after Stripe and Advent International abandoned takeover talks, while Amazon gained 4.0% after an analyst raised its price target on improving AI-driven retail efficiency. Markets now turn to US jobs data and the September Fed decision.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rebounded 1% on Friday as French stocks recovered and autos led gains. BMW jumped 4.5% and Forvia rose 5.1% after Citi placed both on positive catalyst watches, pointing to depressed expectations and potential upside from upcoming company and policy events. EssilorLuxottica gained 2.4% after announcing a share buyback, while French banks also recovered from Thursday’s selloff. European investors now face the same uncomfortable mix of firmer oil prices and higher-rate risk.
Asia: Asian equities recovered sharply from steep opening losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% lower after earlier falling more than 2% and 3%, respectively. Markets initially sold off as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks and higher oil prices raised concerns over rates and inflation, but buyers quickly returned to technology shares. Chinese brokerages remained in focus after listed securities firms reported combined first-half profits up more than 40%, while BYD said overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half of 2026.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. IREN fell 12.53% after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed. Marathon lost 10.11%, CleanSpark 9.96%, Cipher 9.54% and Riot 9.05%, with Strategy down 7.34% and Coinbase 6.33%.
US spot bitcoin funds drew about USD 924 million over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.

Commodities

Crude jumped, with Brent trading back above USD 90, as fresh fighting flared in the Middle East and the US signalled it was likely to unveil new secondary sanctions on Iran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, while Jordan’s army intercepted eight missiles after Tehran’s military claimed attacks against American forces in the kingdom. These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.
Gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into Monday’s session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus remains on the dollar and bond yields, while the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.
The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve bear flattened Friday in reaction to the more hawkish than expected speech from Fed Chair Warsh. Yields eased slightly in early Monday trading in Asia, but the benchmark two-year yield is still some seven basis points higher than it was before Warsh’s speech, trading near the top of the range since late 2024 as the odds of a September 16 FOMC rate hike rose above 50%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is some three basis points higher than before the speech at 4.71% as the Treasury market eyes the key 4.75% area that has marked the top of the range on multiple occasions over the last month.
Global bond yields rose in line with US Treasuries late Friday and early Monday in the wake of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. The benchmark German two-year yield lifted four basis points to close the week just below 2.91%, the highest level for the year and since mid-2024. Japan’s benchmark two-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 1.73%, a new modern high since the mid-1990s.

Currencies

The US dollar rose sharply on Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. USDJPY traded through 160.00 Friday and briefly in early Monday trading for the first time since the official intervention in late July and at the beginning of August. By early European hours, USDJPY returned to the 159.80 area, only slightly above the levels trading before Warsh’s speech. The reaction in EURUSD was stickier, as it remained below 1.1600 by early Monday in Europe, solidly below the 1.1640–1.1650 area trading before Warsh’s speech.
The Swedish krona stands out among the weaker G10 currencies as the Riksbank has yet to hike its policy rate for the cycle and is seen as likely slow to do so. EURSEK rose from 11.09 to nearly 11.15 in the wake of US Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday, posting its highest level in almost exactly a year.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Commodity weekly: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Commodity strength has broadened while leadership has rotated: BCOM TR remains firmly higher in August and around 30% higher year to date, but precious metals, grains and soft commodities have replaced energy as the main engines of the latest advance.
Precious metals have rediscovered their hard-asset credentials: gold, silver and platinum have rallied strongly amid fiscal concerns, renewed investor demand and technical momentum, even as elevated inflation keeps the outlook for US monetary policy uncertain.
Agriculture is experiencing its strongest broad-based advance in years: Black Sea disruption, tighter logistics and increasingly volatile weather have driven double-digit gains across wheat, corn, sugar and cocoa.
Copper remains the industrial-metal standout: despite some late-month weakness across the sector, copper remains close to record levels and within a well-defined uptrend amid tight ex-US inventories, mine disruptions and massive stock accumulation in the US.

Commodity markets are heading towards the end of August with another strong monthly gain, but beneath the headline performance there has been a notable rotation in leadership. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM TR), which tracks a basket of 24 major commodity futures spread almost evenly between energy, metals, and agriculture, remains on course for its highest monthly close on record, lifting its year-to-date return to around 31%, despite some late-month weakness across energy and industrial metals.

The standout development has instead been the powerful rebound across precious metals and agriculture. Precious metals have gained around 15% this month, while grains and soft commodities are both heading for double-digit advances. Grains are on course for their strongest month since February 2022, while softs are heading for their best monthly performance in 12 years. Despite some weakness across US-focused livestock contracts after Trump temporarily lifted tariffs on some foreign imports, the BCOM Agriculture Index is heading for its best month in more than five years.

The common thread linking these otherwise very different markets is scarcity. In precious metals, concerns about fiscal sustainability, currency debasement and the ability of bond markets to absorb rising government debt have renewed demand for hard assets. Across agriculture, war, weather and logistics have raised concerns about future supply. Energy, meanwhile, has lost some momentum as the market cautiously prices an ongoing improvement in flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Broad gains seen across most major commodities this past month - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Bullion returns to the front

Precious metals have been the strongest commodity sector in August, rising around 15%, led by silver, gold and platinum. Gold briefly reached a three-month high near USD 4,700 this week before consolidating ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.

The latest rally has several layers. The first is renewed concern about US fiscal sustainability and the dollar following the Treasury's decision to expand buybacks of longer-dated government bonds. While the programme itself remains relatively modest compared with the size of the Treasury market, the signal was arguably more important than the amount involved. It highlighted the authorities' sensitivity to elevated long-term borrowing costs at a time when government debt continues to rise.

That has helped revive the debasement theme that has supported gold during much of the past two years. Importantly, gold has performed strongly despite elevated bond yields and inflation remaining well above the Federal Reserve's target. Besides an underlying and increasingly constant bid from central banks, this suggests investors are increasingly distinguishing between high yields driven by monetary tightening and high yields reflecting concerns about fiscal sustainability and government borrowing requirements.

Investor participation has also strengthened through ETF demand and futures positioning, while the technical picture improved when gold earlier in the month reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Silver has subsequently outperformed gold, while platinum has also participated, reinforcing the impression of renewed investor interest across the precious-metals complex.

Spot Gold - Source: Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Agriculture takes centre stage

Grains are heading for a monthly gain of around 13%, their strongest performance since February 2022, while soft commodities have risen even more strongly. The current gain of around 14% puts the sector on track for its best month in 12 years. The breadth of the rally is worth noting, with corn, wheat, sugar, cocoa and cotton all recording double-digit gains.

The grain rally has increasingly been driven by a combination of war, weather and logistics. Wheat prices have soared to a three-year high as Black Sea disruption has become more serious, with Russia's grain exports slowing sharply, with August grain exports expected to total only slightly above 2 million tonnes, compared with a five-year average of around 5.7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Black Sea ports which previously handled 90% of the country's exports, remain effectively blocked after Russian attacks while alternative corridors like the Danube is suffering from congestion.

The disruption is also reducing farmers' cash flow and raising concerns about planting and input use for next year's harvest. Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 25% to 30% of global wheat exports, so prolonged disruption could force major importers to source more expensive supplies elsewhere. Chicago wheat prices have risen sharply since early July as buyers increasingly price this risk.

For corn, the Black Sea story has been accompanied by a deterioration in the US production outlook. The USDA recently lowered its yield estimate for this season, while subsequent crop surveys have reinforced concerns that yields may fall short of earlier expectations. Weather concerns elsewhere, including China and Brazil, have added another layer of uncertainty.

Chicago Wheat - Source: Saxo

El Niño puts soft commodities back in focus

Weather has been equally important across soft commodities, where sugar has been the standout performer, gaining close to 25% this month. A strengthening El Niño threatens to create different problems across major producing regions. Excessive rainfall can disrupt harvesting and exports in Brazilian, while weaker rainfall elsewhere can hurt crop development. India has already faced concerns about monsoon conditions and domestic sugar availability, while increasingly volatile weather is raising uncertainty across several tropical crops.

Sugar's rally has also been amplified by positioning. Earlier this month, speculative funds moved from a sizeable net short to a net long for the first time in more than a year, highlighting how rapidly a fundamentally driven move can accelerate when short covering and momentum buying are added to the mix.

Cocoa has also rallied by double digits as attention shifts towards the next West African crop. Concerns about delayed harvesting in Ivory Coast and a weaker production outlook in Ghana have reinforced the market's sensitivity to weather after several years of exceptionally volatile supply conditions.

This does not mean every weather concern will translate into an actual shortage. Agricultural markets have a long history of pricing the weather forecast before ultimately trading the harvest. But with inventories relatively tight across several markets, geopolitical disruptions complicating trade flows and weather patterns becoming increasingly volatile, the tolerance for disappointing crops has fallen. Markets that only a few months ago were comfortable pricing abundant supplies are increasingly being forced to attach a higher risk premium to future availability, particularly as disruptions to planting, harvesting and export logistics can amplify the impact of an initially modest production setback.

Copper remains supported

Industrial metals have lagged the broader commodity rally during August, but zinc and copper remain important exceptions. LME copper is heading for a ninth consecutive weekly gain and continues to trade within a well-defined uptrend close to record levels, while zinc surged to a four-year high amid signs of ore shortages before slipping back, but remains on track for a 7% gain. Both markets are displaying signs of near-term supply tension after a turbulent few weeks in which dwindling inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses drove the cost of metal for immediate delivery well above prices for future delivery.

With regard to copper, one unusual feature of the current market is the geographical distortion in inventories. Huge volumes of refined copper have accumulated in the US ahead of the possibility of future import tariffs, effectively pulling metal away from other markets. COMEX inventories have risen to record levels while available stocks elsewhere have tightened.

This does not necessarily mean the world is running out of copper. Indeed, some forecasts still point towards a global refined-metal surplus this year. Rather, trade policy and arbitrage have created a regional mismatch between where copper is located and where it is needed. However, combined with mine disruptions, smelter constraints and continued demand for this important energy transition metal, that mismatch has been enough to keep the market tight and prices elevated.

Crude softens as more barrels move through the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices have fallen sharply this week as the market increasingly senses that both Washington and Tehran are looking for an exit ramp from a conflict that has imposed a heavy economic cost on both sides. Energy has therefore moved in the opposite direction during the latter part of August. Brent crude has fallen back below USD 90 per barrel and is heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks as traders cautiously price an improvement in Gulf exports and the possibility of an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ship-tracking data supports that view, pointing to increased activity through the Strait of Hormuz and helping to underpin expectations of a gradual improvement in supply. Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating that flows have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels. Crude transits through the Strait are now estimated at 6–8 million barrels per day.

The improvement is nevertheless uneven. While the outlook for crude supply has become less constrained, refined-product markets remain extremely tight. Refinery capacity within the Gulf is still impaired, while a temporary ban on Russian exports has removed additional supplies from international markets. As a result, the market is experiencing a growing divergence between improving crude availability and continued shortages of gasoline and distillates.

The latest weekly update from the US EIA showed that refinery utilisation had risen to its highest seasonal level since 1998. Record refining margins have incentivised refiners to maximise production, while export demand has remained strong because of the Russian export ban and stranded capacity in the Persian Gulf. Even with refiners operating at such high rates, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2012, at 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories also plunged to a record low of 105.6 million barrels.

This helps explain why energy can underperform even while geopolitical risks remain unusually elevated. Crude prices are trading the direction of change in supply disruption rather than its absolute level, while tight refined-product inventories continue to signal that the physical market remains vulnerable to further shocks.

Elevated spread between crude and refined products remain - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities as a portfolio allocation

The increasingly broad nature of this year's rally also highlights why commodities can play a role beyond short-term tactical trading. A broad allocation to commodities can provide an additional source of long-term returns and potentially help protect portfolios during periods when rising inflation expectations challenge both equities and bonds. The drivers are also becoming increasingly diverse.

Oil demand remains strong, with continued growth expected over the coming years, particularly across emerging economies. Industrial metals, in particular copper, should benefit from structural demand linked to electrification, the energy transition and the ongoing global buildout of AI-related infrastructure. Meanwhile, increasingly volatile weather, including the developing El Niño pattern, could restrict agricultural supply and keep food commodity markets sensitive to production setbacks.

None of these themes provides a straight line to higher prices. A diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East could remove additional risk premium from energy, improved weather could quickly pressure agricultural markets, while slower global growth would challenge industrial-metal demand. Precious metals could also face renewed profit-taking should real yields and the dollar strengthen further.

For now, however, the message from August is clear. The commodity rally is no longer being carried primarily by barrels. Bullion and bushels have joined the advance, and with war, weather, trade policy and fiscal concerns affecting different parts of the complex, scarcity in its various forms remains the dominant theme.

The chart shows the five-year performance of the BCOM TR and some of its underlying components. The index gained 76.7%, led by a 162.8% increase in precious metals (gold and silver), while agricultural and industrial metals lagged, rising by around 36%.

Five-year performance of the BCOM TR index and some of its underlying components. - Source: Bloomberg Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Related articles/content
26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply 26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again 25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally 24 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026 21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

26 Aug 2026: Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply
26 Aug 2026: From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again
25 Aug 2026: Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally
24 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026
21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Agriculture Gold Silver Copper Corn Wheat Sugar

After Nvidia, where does the AI money go next?

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia confirms strong AI computing demand, but the spending chain is becoming much broader.
Proprietary data and workflows may gain value as powerful AI models become easier to access.
More autonomous AI creates new needs around identity, security and recovery.

Nvidia’s results on 26 August 2026 confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing remains enormous. But this earnings week also suggested that the AI opportunity is starting to spread well beyond the graphics processing unit (GPU).

Across chips, software and cybersecurity, a clearer picture is emerging of what comes next. AI increasingly needs three things to scale: compute to run, context to become useful, and control to be trusted.

Compute is becoming more specialised

Marvell designs chips and networking technology for data centres. Revenue rose 37% to a record 2.74 billion USD, with Data Center revenue up 46%.

Its results also show the gap between winning a design and earning the revenue. Marvell secured a major custom-chip agreement with Google, but management said the biggest contribution should arrive later, particularly from fiscal 2029.

Synopsys sells software and intellectual property used to design complex chips and systems. Revenue reached 2.48 billion USD, up about 42%, while management raised its outlook and pointed to AI-driven complexity.

As hyperscalers build more customised infrastructure, value can spread towards companies that help design, connect and optimise specialised systems.

Context may become software’s new moat

Powerful AI models increasingly have similar general capabilities. What they do not automatically have is a company’s customer history, payroll records, engineering designs and business rules.

That gives established software companies an interesting asset: context.

Salesforce stores customer and sales data. Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly 3.9 billion USD, up more than 210%. Its expanded Anthropic partnership makes the logic clear: Salesforce can make Claude more useful by connecting it to trusted data, workflows and governance.

Workday manages human resources and finance processes. AI products generated more than 25% of new annual contract value, while more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent.

Autodesk extends the argument into engineering and construction. Its software sits inside project workflows, giving AI access to rich technical context. Management argues that useful AI in the physical world requires trusted project data.

If intelligence becomes easier to access, the moat can migrate from owning the model to owning what makes the model useful.

Control becomes more valuable as AI gains autonomy

The third layer appears when AI stops answering questions and starts taking actions.

A company running thousands of agents must know which agent is acting, what it can access and how to recover if something goes wrong.

CrowdStrike protects devices and cloud systems. Its Falcon Flex ARR exceeded 2.29 billion USD, up 101%, suggesting customers increasingly want a broader security platform.

Okta manages digital identities and access. Revenue grew a more modest 11%, which is a useful reminder that a convincing AI story is not the same as proven monetisation. Still, every agent needs an identity and permissions.

Rubrik adds recovery and data protection. Subscription ARR rose 33% to 1.66 billion USD, while its strategy increasingly includes securing AI-agent activity.

More autonomous AI can therefore create some of the security spending needed to make further adoption possible.

The risks are moving too

Custom-chip projects can take years to scale. Software companies may own valuable data without successfully charging more for AI access. Security vendors may face tougher competition as larger platforms bundle more tools.

Watch delayed production ramps, weak AI-related contract growth and rising usage that fails to become recurring revenue.

Investor playbook

Separate AI exposure into compute, context and control rather than treating every AI company as the same trade.
Track conversion, not announcements. Design wins, pilots and agent usage matter when they become revenue and cash flow.
Ask whether AI strengthens an existing moat, such as proprietary data or embedded workflows.
Keep diversification in mind. The AI value chain is widening, but expectations can widen even faster.

From compute to context and control

Nvidia remains the clearest proof that the AI infrastructure boom is alive. Yet this earnings week suggests the opportunity is becoming broader and more layered. Marvell and Synopsys help build specialised infrastructure. Salesforce, Workday and Autodesk give AI the business context it needs. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik help companies trust it enough to act.

That does not make every company in the chain a winner. It does give investors a more useful map. The first phase rewarded scarce computing power. The next may reward scarce context and control. Compute makes AI possible, context makes it useful, and control makes it deployable at scale.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Can Fed Chair Warsh give the market what it wants?

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:27:00 Z

Is clarity too much to ask for?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

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Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Market Quick Take - Tech earnings lift a narrow market as Warsh takes the Jackson Hole stage - 28 August 2026

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech are the session’s key focus
Equities: US technology surged on earnings strength, Europe fell on French political risk, Asia traded cautiously ahead of Jackson Hole.
Digital Assets: Bitcoin holds near 80k and a back-to-back weekly gain
Commodities: Crude firms despite rising Gulf exports; gold holds below USD 4,600 ahead of Warsh speech; wheat and corn post strong weekly gains
Fixed Income: Yields pull higher, still within recent range below cycle highs.
Currencies: USD edges to local highs ahead of Fed Chair Warsh speech

Macro

Jackson Hole is the session's single reference point. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first symposium keynote as chair at 14:00 GMT, and positioning has been built around a hawkish tone intended to anchor long yields. The speech lands 19 days before the 16 September FOMC, with money markets pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a September move after a run of softer prints.
Two Asian central banks moved the other way. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.8% year-on-year in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan increase, with September now in focus. The Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25 basis point rise to 3.00% in a six-to-one decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0645 – France Flash Aug. CPI
0700 – Spain Flash Aug. CPI
0755 – Germany Aug. Unemployment Claims / Unemployment Rate
1230 – Canada Jun. / Q2 GDP estimate
1345 – US Aug. Chicago PMI
1400 – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole
1400 – US Aug. Final University of Michigan Sentiment survey

Today, at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote, and while he is likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.4%, although technology almost entirely drove the rally and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while Salesforce jumped 22.6% on a strong outlook and deeper Anthropic partnership. CrowdStrike rallied 20.5% after strong earnings and higher guidance. After hours, Gap gained 13.3% after raising its earnings outlook, while Marvell fell sharply as its Google deal failed to meaningfully lift its longer-term revenue outlook.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7%, its biggest decline since 23 July, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.8% as French political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. France’s CAC 40 underperformed ahead of a key presidential debate, with BNP Paribas falling 4.8% and infrastructure group Eiffage sliding 7.4% as investors reassessed political and fiscal risks. Pernod Ricard also weakened after warning that growth would land at the lower end of expectations. Germany bucked the trend, with the DAX rising 0.3% as SAP gained 5.5% on renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s results.
Asia: Asian markets opened cautiously on Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with the Kospi falling around 1.1% at the open despite Nvidia’s strong results. South Korean memory shares weakened as investors digested the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate increase, while Nikkei 225 futures were broadly flat ahead of Tokyo inflation data and a Japanese government bond auction. Singapore’s STI had fallen 0.7% on Thursday, with Genting Singapore down 2.3% and Venture Corp up 1.7%. Baidu gained as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong after confirming its move to a dual-primary listing from 1 September.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Fear readings fell sharply after the technology earnings. VIX dropped 4.73% to 14.50 while same-day VIX1D fell 10.77% to 11.52 and VIX9D 9.23% to 12.10. Nasdaq volatility eased 5.51% to 20.24 and VVIX 2.75% to 82.90.
The curve held a steep contango, 12.10 at nine days against 17.56 at three months, with the front future at 16.70 and SKEW elevated at 144.05. MOVE firmed 0.61% to 69.86. SPX options imply 0.55% today and 1.25% into Friday 4 September, with Jackson Hole the catalyst. Expected-move figures are option-implied, not forecasts; options carry a high risk of rapid loss.

Commodities

Oil: Oil held onto Thursday’s gains, with Brent rising towards USD 90 as prospects for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded. The White House said the US is not negotiating with Iran and that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Despite the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough, crude is still heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks as flows through Hormuz continue to recover. Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating that flows have reached around two-thirds of pre-war levels and crude transits through the Strait now running at an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day.
Gold: Gold holds below USD 4,600, having spent the latter part of the week consolidating following recent strong gains as investors weigh the outlook for US interest rates ahead of today’s key speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Gold has gained around 13% this month, supported by fiscal debt concerns and a renewed focus on currency debasement. Those gold-supportive concerns have not gone away, but for now traders are focused on Warsh and the trajectory of short-term rates, with a full 25-basis-point hike priced in before year-end.
The broad-based Bloomberg Commodity Index trades broadly unchanged on the week following strong gains during the previous three. Lower energy prices and profit-taking across precious metals have offset another strong week for agriculture, particularly grains, where prices reached a two-year high led by gains in corn and wheat amid mounting supply concerns. For the month, the BCOM is up 6.4%, supported by double-digit gains across precious metals, softs and grains, highlighting the increasingly broad-based nature of the commodity rally.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Treasuries traded slightly weakly on Thursday as yields at the front end of the curve edged back toward recent highs near 4.25% ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech later Friday, while longer-dated yields were also marginally higher, if still trading near the middle of the recent range for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yield benchmarks.
US high-yield bond yield spreads to US Treasuries have narrowed to their tightest levels in well over a month, with the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread at 263 basis points, matching the low since early July and not far from the record post-GFC low of 250 basis points.

Currencies

The US dollar remains in a holding pattern amidst muted volatility across currencies and ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech, slightly firmer as EURUSD has slipped just below 1.1650 and USDJPY squeezed back above 159.50, eyeing the odds of official intervention to weaken the JPY should 160.00+ trade.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Nvidia does what it can to bring cheer. Dark geopolitics still lurk in the background.

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 09:32:00 Z

Nvidia lifts AI sentiment.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

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Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Market Quick Take - Nvidia rises on strong earnings and growth outlook - 27 August 2026

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A firmer inflation print hardened the case for another rate rise this year.
Equities: US stocks were flat before Nvidia’s beat, Europe was steady, Asian chip shares rallied as Nvidia reinforced artificial intelligence demand.
Digital Assets: Coins drifted and the miners were sold hard while fund inflows kept building.
Commodities: Wheat hits three-year high on Russia-Ukraine tensions; oil gyrates and gold consolidates.
Fixed Income: US and European yields rebounded Wednesday.
Currencies: Very muted volatility ahead of Fed Chair Warsh Jackson Hole speech Friday. CHF weak again on carry trade appeal.

Macro

Inflation came in a shade warmer than expected. The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month after a 0.1% fall in June, above the 0.1% forecast, with services prices up 0.3% and goods 0.1% lower. Core PCE also rose 0.2%. Year-on-year the headline rate held at 3.7% (versus expectations for a dip to 3.6%) and core at 3.3%. Money markets responded by moving to fully price a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The activity data was firmer than the growth print. Personal spending rose 0.2% against a 0.1% forecast, though down from 0.3% in June and roughly flat in real terms. Durable goods orders rose 1.1%, the strongest since April and double the forecast, led by transportation with gains in capital goods, metals and machinery; ex-transport orders rose 0.4% and the core capital goods capex proxy 0.2%. Second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at a 1.5% annualised rate, down from 2.1%.
The Strait of Hormuz story moved another step toward resolution. Iran and Oman agreed terms for sharing the waters and the revenues of the strait, though Tehran said reopening the waterway requires more than this deal. President Trump said 10 million barrels moved through on Tuesday and repeated that the mines have been cleared. New US sanctions on Iran landed milder than feared.
Wheat prices hit a three-year high as concerns grow the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate and further disrupt supplies from a region that supplies more than 25% of global wheat exports, as well as large amounts of barley, corn and sunflower oil, raising the risk of another round of food inflation on top of the one caused by higher energy prices.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany September GfK Consumer Sentiment
1230 – US July Advanced Goods Trade Balance
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1700 – US to Sell USD 44 billion 7-year Notes

The Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers starts today and runs through Saturday, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote tomorrow. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 finished little changed, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1% as firmer US inflation lifted Treasury yields ahead of Nvidia’s results. Nvidia fell 1.6% in regular trading before jumping over 5% after hours as quarterly revenue more than doubled and management guided third-quarter sales to about $108 billion, while forecasting roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028. Salesforce surged almost 13% after hours after raising its annual outlook and expanding its Anthropic partnership through Claudeforce. Attention shifted to whether Nvidia’s optimism could lift artificial intelligence shares more broadly and to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. CrowdStrike surged almost 10% after hours after beating earnings expectations, with revenue up 26% year on year and full-year guidance raised to $5.99–6.01 billion.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished flat, while the DAX gained 0.1%, the CAC 40 rose 0.3% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as investors balanced softer oil prices against caution in technology and healthcare. Ambu dropped 15.8% after cutting its growth outlook and receiving a Nordea downgrade, while Ferrovial fell 5.0% after UBS downgraded the shares on concerns about returns from its planned Tennessee toll-road project. The broader market remained in wait-and-see mode, with Nvidia’s stronger outlook providing a fresh test for Europe’s semiconductor and technology shares today.
Asia: Asian equities turned mixed after an early Nvidia-led surge. South Korea’s Kospi was up around 1% by midday after opening 2.8% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4% as the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate hike cooled the Korean rally. Earlier, SK Hynix gained around 3% and Samsung Electronics rose 2.3% as Nvidia’s results reinforced expectations for strong artificial intelligence-related memory demand. The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, shifting attention from the earnings boost back toward inflation and borrowing costs.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The coins drifted and the listed miners took the brunt. IREN fell 6.23% ahead of its results tonight, Marathon 5.16%, CleanSpark 4.47% and Riot 3.24%, while Coinbase and Strategy both fell 2.87% and Circle 2.29%. Deribit's implied volatility gauge eased to 40.24.
US spot bitcoin funds extended their inflow run to a seventh session, drawing USD 314 million on Tuesday. That takes August to USD 3.03 billion and has more than halved the year's cumulative net outflows, to USD 2.26 billion.

Commodities

Agriculture: Wheat futures in Chicago hit a three-year high as concerns grow that the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate further and disrupt supplies from a region that accounts for more than 25% of global wheat exports. Ukraine is already facing a drop of more than 50% in agricultural exports this season compared with previous estimates, according to its agriculture ministry. Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments are expected to fall by more than 50% in August from a year earlier. Overall, these developments are squeezing farmer cash flow, potentially affecting planting and next year’s production.
Oil: Crude prices rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with Brent rising from below USD 86 to near USD 90 on reports of a potential Russian escalation in Ukraine, before reversing on news of an Iranian revenue-sharing agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are down around 8% from Monday’s peak amid renewed Middle East supply optimism, while US inventory data highlighted continued stress in refined products, with gasoline stocks falling to their lowest seasonal level since 2012 and diesel inventories to a record low, just ahead of the winter demand season.
Gold: Bullion continues to consolidate following last week’s surge, with prices so far finding support below USD 4,600, ahead of the USD 4,555 level, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow, with markets looking for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions. Following the latest inflation print, one full 25-basis-point hike is now priced by December.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Treasuries came back under pressure on Wednesday, reversing part of the prior day’s move. A jump in yields occurred around the release of the July PCE inflation data (core PCE as expected but headline PCE data a bit hotter than expected as noted above) and the release of the revised GDP core price index for Q2, which was revised higher to an annualized rate of 3.6% from 3.4%. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.21% after trading below 4.17% intraday, while the benchmark 10-year reversed less of Tuesday’s drop in yields, ending the day near 4.65% after dipping as low as 4.613%.
Europe’s bond yields rebounded sharply Wednesday, reversing more of Tuesday’s sharp drop in yields that was apparently prompted by the plunge in crude oil prices. The benchmark German 10-year Bund dropped as low as 3.185% near the open of trading Wednesday, only to close back above 3.23%.

Currencies

Currency volatility is extremely muted, in part driven by uncertainty surrounding Fed policy direction, low volatility in other asset classes, and perhaps traders steering clear of trading the Japanese yen on fears of official intervention. Across the G10 currencies, the average daily trading ranges for nine of the ten (NOK is the exception, linked to oil market volatility) are in the bottom 20% for the last 1,000 trading days, with EUR and USD pairs in the bottom 5% and 7% of trading ranges, respectively.
The Japanese yen weakened slightly, trading toward the weaker side of the recent range in USDJPY since the massive wave of official intervention back in late July and the beginning of August. Traders will eye the 159.78 high of that range versus 159.32 currently if global bond yields are pressuring higher again and the US dollar likewise.
The Swiss franc has weakened again on the return of the appeal of carry trades (funding currency trades in CHF) as volatility remains low, yields elevated and Switzerland’s SNB is seen maintaining its 0% policy rate for now. EURCHF has rebounded from the 0.9310 low last week to 0.9389 by early Thursday.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Nvidia earnings: AI boom meets margin test

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:45:00 Z

Key points:

Another beat-and-raise quarter: Revenue beat expectations by 4.2%, Q3 guidance came around 4% above consensus and management now expects approximately 70% growth in fiscal 2028 vs. current expectations of 45%, confirming that demand remains stronger than available supply.
Two company headwinds—and one macro hurdle: Memory costs are set to pull gross margin from 75% towards 71–72%, while free cash flow fell 56% quarter-on-quarter. Higher long-term bond yields add a separate valuation headwind for Nvidia and other long-duration AI stocks.
Positive for the AI ecosystem, but increasingly selective: The strongest read-through is for memory, networking, packaging and power infrastructure. Hyperscalers face a more mixed outcome as stronger AI demand comes with higher capex, weaker free cash flow and greater pressure to prove monetisation.

Nvidia delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the biggest positive was not the quarterly beat itself. It was management effectively telling investors that AI demand remains supply-constrained even at this scale—and guiding to approximately 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 vs. current expectations of 45%.

That is a powerful counter to the narrative that the AI capex cycle is already peaking. But at a market value above $5 trillion, strong demand alone is not enough. Margins, cash conversion and the returns generated by Nvidia’s customers will increasingly determine the next phase of the story.

Revenue gained 106% from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income increased 124%. Hyperscaler revenue also more than doubled, while gross margin was broadly in line with expectations at 75%.

The clearer disappointment was free cash flow. At $21.3 billion, it was reportedly well below forecasts and down sharply from the previous quarter, although it remained 59% higher than a year ago.

Demand was stronger—and broader—than expected

Data Centre revenue reached $89 billion, representing more than 92% of Nvidia’s total revenue.

Within Data Centre, hyperscale revenue rose 13% sequentially to $48.7 billion. Revenue from AI clouds, industrial companies and enterprises increased a faster 25% to $40.3 billion.

That distinction matters. Nvidia is no longer relying exclusively on a small group of US technology giants. AI-native companies, sovereign projects, industrial customers and enterprises are becoming increasingly important sources of demand.

It is still diversification within AI infrastructure rather than genuine business diversification. But it reduces the risk that Nvidia’s growth depends entirely on the capex decisions of four or five hyperscalers.

The biggest bullish surprise came during the call

Management expects revenue to grow by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, which largely covers calendar 2027. Market expectations had reportedly been closer to 45%.

Nvidia also indicated that it can currently satisfy only around 70% of demand. In other words, the immediate constraint remains supply—not a shortage of customers.

That guidance was the main reason Nvidia shares moved more than 4% higher during extended trading after a more restrained initial reaction to the results.

It also changes the debate around peak growth. A $108 billion quarterly revenue run rate no longer looks like the end of the cycle if Nvidia can deliver anything close to 70% growth next fiscal year.

Rubin execution risk has fallen, but not disappeared

Nvidia commenced production shipments of Vera Rubin in early August, while inventory increased from $25.8 billion to $31.6 billion as the company prepared for the ramp.

This is reassuring because Nvidia is attempting another major architectural transition immediately after scaling Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra. So far, there is no sign of customers delaying spending while waiting for Rubin.

However, beginning production is not the same as proving a smooth, high-volume deployment. The next two quarters will test:

Rubin manufacturing yields;
HBM4 availability;
rack-scale integration;
advanced-packaging capacity;
networking, power and cooling availability;
how quickly customers can install and utilise delivered systems.

The report reduces the risk of a product-transition slowdown, but the scale and complexity of Rubin mean execution remains important.

China is optionality, not part of the base case

China contributed less than 1% of Nvidia’s Data Centre revenue, while the company assumes no China Data Centre compute revenue in its Q3 forecast.

That means the $108 billion guidance does not rely on regulatory relief. Any meaningful reopening would provide incremental upside.

The longer-term risk is that Nvidia’s absence gives Chinese companies a protected market in which to develop domestic accelerators and software ecosystems. Even if restrictions eventually ease, some of that market could be difficult to recover.

For Asian markets, the near-term read-through is most supportive for Korea’s memory suppliers and Taiwan’s foundry, packaging and server supply chains. Nvidia’s continued absence from China, meanwhile, strengthens the strategic case for domestic substitution.

Gross margins are the key earnings tension

Nvidia delivered a 75% gross margin in Q2 but guided to 74% in Q3. Management subsequently indicated that margins could fall to around 71–72% in the January quarter before stabilising around 72–73% next fiscal year.

The biggest pressure is coming from expensive and scarce memory. Nvidia is planning price increases on some upcoming systems, but there is a timing gap between higher component costs and the company’s ability to recover them from customers.

The bullish interpretation is that margins are falling because AI demand is overwhelming the memory supply chain. Nvidia continues to have strong pricing power, while lower margins are more than offset by revenue growth.

The less comfortable interpretation is that Nvidia’s peak economics are being tested by rising system costs, greater complexity and more expensive inputs.

On quarterly revenue above $100 billion, every percentage point of gross margin represents more than $1 billion of gross profit.

Cash conversion was another weak spot

The gap between earnings and cash flow was unusually wide. Adjusted net income reached $54 billion, but free cash flow was only $21.3 billion, implying cash conversion of less than 40%.

This largely reflected a heavy working-capital build:

Accounts receivable absorbed $22.3 billion of cash.
Inventory increased by $5.8 billion.
Days sales outstanding rose from 45 to 60 days.
Cash taxes also weighed on operating cash flow.

Nvidia attributed the increase in receivables to extended payment terms on large, multi-quarter agreements with investment-grade customers. The inventory build reflects preparations for Rubin.

Some of this pressure may reverse as payments arrive and Rubin inventory is shipped, so the FCF decline does not necessarily signal weaker demand. However, it makes the quarter’s earnings quality less clean and deserves monitoring as Nvidia extends customer terms and takes on larger financing commitments. Still, after such a strong run in the stock, cash conversion is now another metric investors cannot ignore.

Nvidia also returned around $26 billion to shareholders during the quarter—more than the free cash flow it generated. The company can comfortably absorb this using its balance sheet and first-half cash generation, but the pace would be harder to sustain if weaker cash conversion persists.

GAAP net income of $59.7 billion also included $7.8 billion of gains on equity securities. Adjusted net income of $54 billion is therefore the cleaner measure of underlying performance.

Nvidia is becoming an AI financier

Nvidia disclosed:

supply and capacity commitments of $279 billion, up from $119 billion last quarter, primarily related to memory;
approximately $366 billion of total future commitments;
another $56 billion of AI-cloud and third-party lease commitments;
maximum gross guarantees of $108.5 billion, including as much as $105 billion connected with the OpenAI and SB Energy data-centre development in Ohio;
partnerships intended to mobilise more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure.

These arrangements can help Nvidia secure scarce supply, accelerate customer deployments and expand its addressable market.

But they also make the company’s risk profile more complex. Investors increasingly need to consider customer credit quality, leases, guarantees, revenue-sharing agreements and Nvidia’s equity investments—not just GPU shipments.

This does not automatically make the revenue circular. It does mean Nvidia is increasingly helping to create and finance the ecosystem into which it sells.

The weaker FCF result makes this development more relevant. Nvidia still has substantial financial flexibility, but expanding commitments alongside rising working-capital requirements could gradually reduce that cushion.

What Nvidia’s results mean for the AI ecosystem

Memory: Nvidia’s margin guidance confirms that HBM and server-memory supply remains tight today, supporting pricing power for SK Hynix, Micron and other suppliers. But supply is catching up. The next stage of the memory trade depends on whether AI demand and rising memory content per accelerator can absorb additional capacity—not simply on shortages pushing prices higher.
Hyperscalers and custom chips: Nvidia’s outlook gives another vote of confidence to hyperscaler capex. But the more expensive Nvidia GPUs and memory become, the stronger the incentive for companies to develop custom silicon. This does not undermine Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium or the Broadcom and Marvell ASIC opportunity. Nvidia can remain dominant in frontier AI while custom processors take a larger share of specific inference workloads.
Networking, optics, power and cooling: Rubin, Spectrum-6 networking and increasingly large AI factories suggest the bottleneck is moving beyond GPUs into memory bandwidth, data movement, electricity, cooling and data-centre capacity. These remain attractive second-order areas of the infrastructure buildout.
AI clouds: The 25% sequential growth in Nvidia’s AI-cloud, industrial and enterprise segment supports selected providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius. But high leverage, customer concentration and dependence on external financing make this one of the riskier parts of the ecosystem.
Foundry and packaging: The Rubin ramp supports TSMC and advanced-packaging suppliers. Demand visibility remains strong, but capacity constraints, customer concentration and geopolitics cannot be ignored.

Overall, Nvidia’s results validate the AI infrastructure trade—but they are not a signal to indiscriminately chase everything labelled AI. Rising component costs, higher yields and the need to prove returns will increasingly separate companies with pricing power and visible demand from the rest.

Bottom line

Nvidia’s report removes one major near-term concern around demand. The AI infrastructure cycle is not yet rolling over, Rubin is entering production and supply remains the binding constraint.

It does not remove the valuation debate.

The next test is whether Nvidia can preserve enough of its extraordinary margins and restore stronger cash conversion as the business scales. Meanwhile, hyperscalers must show that rapidly rising AI expenditure can generate adequate returns—particularly when long-term yields offer investors an increasingly credible alternative.

For Nvidia and the wider AI ecosystem, the question is no longer whether growth exists. It is where the economics of that growth ultimately settle.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Amazon Macro Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation Microsoft Alphabet Alphabet Inc. Amd Advanced Micro Devices

Grains hit two-year high as war, weather and logistics tighten supply

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key Points:

The Bloomberg Grains Total Return Index has reached a fresh two year high, supported by broad gains across corn and wheat, with the risk shifting from logistics to future supply.
Black Sea disruption intensifies and Russian August grain exports may fall towards 2 million tonnes, sharply below the five-year average of around 5.7 million tonnes.
Ukraine faces a longer-term supply risk amid blocked Black Sea ports and congested Danube routes restricting exports, squeezing farmer cash flow and potentially affecting planting and next year's production.
Corn adds another source of strength with the Chicago corn futures rising 14% this month amid a deteriorating US crop outlook, while concerns over Brazilian yields and fertilizer availability add to supply uncertainty.

The Bloomberg Grains Total Return Index, tracked by several ETCs here through the WisdomTree Grains ETC, has risen to a fresh two-year high as a combination of weather-related supply concerns and escalating disruption to Black Sea exports continues to support prices. The index is up around 9.3% this month, with corn and wheat leading the advance, while the year-to-date gain has reached 20%. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

Total returns across agriculture and grains - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

The latest concern centres on the Black Sea, where disruption to exports from both Russia and Ukraine is proving more severe than initially anticipated. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, is seeing shipments constrained by attacks on port infrastructure and commercial vessels. According to a Bloomberg report, the country's grain exports are now expected to total around 2 million tons in August, a 20% reduction compared with a two-week-old projection from ProZerno, well below the five-year August average of 5.7 million tonnes.

The strain is even more pronounced in Ukraine, where Russian attacks have effectively blocked the deep-water Black Sea ports that normally handle around 90% of the country's agricultural exports. The disruption is increasingly becoming more than a near-term export problem. With crops struggling to leave farms and storage capacity filling up, producers face weaker domestic prices, tighter cash flow and reduced ability to finance inputs and planting for the next harvest. Ukraine has already warned that storage could fall 8–11 million tonnes short following the harvest if seaborne exports remain constrained.

Alternative export routes are providing only limited relief. Reuters reports that up to 70 vessels are currently waiting near Romania's Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian Danube ports to load grain, amid shortages of pilots and priority being given to cargoes carrying fuel. Frequent air-raid alerts have also contributed to delays. Current transit capacity through the canal has reportedly fallen to just two or three vessels per day. According to the Agriculture Ministry, Ukraine exported only 539,000 tonnes of grain during August through the latest reporting period, compared with 1.73 million tonnes during the same period last year.

The key risk for global grain markets is therefore shifting from the immediate loss of exports towards the possibility of a more persistent supply shock. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 25% to 30% of total global wheat exports, meaning prolonged disruption could force major importers to source more expensive supplies from North America, Australia and Argentina. Chicago wheat prices have already risen sharply since early July as buyers increasingly price this risk.

Meanwhile, Chicago corn has extended its rally, supported by a deteriorating US crop outlook and concerns that earlier expectations for ample supply may prove too optimistic. Corn is up 14% this month and around 9% year to date, while CBOT wheat has gained more than 9% this month and 34% year to date. Weather and input-related concerns elsewhere, including Brazil where lower fertilizer supply, add another layer of uncertainty at a time when geopolitical disruption is already reducing the market's margin for error.

The WisdomTree Grains ETC is relatively evenly exposed across the major grain markets, with approximately 34.1% in corn, 32.7% in soybeans, 19.5% in CBOT wheat and 13.7% in Kansas City wheat. This composition helps explain its recent broad-based advance: unlike a wheat-only exposure, it is benefiting from both the Black Sea-driven rally in wheat and increasingly supportive fundamentals across corn and the wider grain complex.

For now, the combination of war, weather and increasingly constrained logistics continues to underpin the sector. The next test will be whether Black Sea export capacity begins to recover. If not, attention is likely to shift increasingly towards the knock-on impact on farmer economics, autumn and spring planting decisions and ultimately the size of next year's crops.

The Bloomberg Grains TR index, tracked here by the WisdomTree Grains ETC - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

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Educational resources:
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Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Agriculture Wheat Russian Federation Ukraine Corn Soybean

Waiting for what may or may not surprise from Nvidia and the J-Hole.

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:48:00 Z

Market wants big news, but will it get it?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

From escalation to exit ramp: why oil's war premium is unwinding again

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key Points:

Crude prices have fallen sharply as Iran-Oman talks, Pakistani mediation and other signals raise hopes that Washington and Tehran are searching for a way to de-escalate.
The price move is running well ahead of the physical recovery, with Hormuz vessel traffic still severely depressed and Gulf energy infrastructure remaining disrupted.
Diesel and gasoil cracks have fallen from extreme peaks but remain exceptionally elevated as Gulf refinery outages and Russian export restrictions continue to constrain supply.
The biggest downside risk is a meaningful reopening of Hormuz, while the upside risk is that markets have priced a diplomatic breakthrough that proves much harder to deliver.

Oil prices have fallen sharply this week as the market increasingly senses that both Washington and Tehran are looking for an exit ramp from a conflict that has inflicted a heavy economic cost on both sides. Brent crude trades near USD 86 per barrel, extending its three-day decline to around 8.7%, while WTI trades back below USD 80 after trading above USD 87 last week.

The change in sentiment has been swift. Only a week ago, markets were focused on renewed tension, severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's promise of an "economic onslaught" against Iran. Today, the focus has shifted towards diplomacy, potential maritime corridors and signs that neither side currently appears eager to return to full-scale military confrontation.

The result is a rapid unwinding of part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. However, the physical energy market remains far from normal, suggesting that the market is trading the prospect of improving supply conditions well before those improvements have actually materialised.

Brent crude trades near USD 86, below the USD 93 average seen during six months of war and disruptions - Source: Saxo

Searching for an exit ramp

The most important development has been talks between Iran and Oman, with the two sides discussing an interim framework aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the establishment of a temporary joint navigational corridor and a project to clear mines from the waterway.

Importantly, such an arrangement would not require Washington and Tehran to immediately resolve the much larger disagreements surrounding sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme and regional security. Instead, it could provide a practical first step towards reducing the economic damage while broader negotiations continue.

Other developments also point towards de-escalation. The US has reportedly started returning diplomatic personnel to several Middle Eastern posts that were evacuated or downsized following the outbreak of war. The phased return includes missions in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, with other Gulf posts also expected to increase staffing. While hardly proof that the conflict is over, the move suggests Washington currently assesses the risk of renewed large-scale military escalation to have diminished.

Meanwhile, Washington's much-anticipated expansion of sanctions against Iran has so far proved less aggressive than feared. The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels and widened the range of activities potentially exposed to secondary sanctions. However, it stopped short of immediately imposing significant penalties on other countries continuing to trade with Iran and, importantly, did not target major Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iranian oil trade.

China, Iran's largest oil customer, has responded defiantly, arguing that its relationship with Tehran should not be disrupted and warning that it will take measures to protect its interests. The US may yet escalate its economic campaign, but for now its measured approach reduces the immediate risk of a sanctions confrontation with Beijing that could further disrupt global energy flows.

After six months of conflict, the incentives for finding an exit are becoming increasingly clear. Iran desperately needs economic relief and improved access to its oil export markets. Washington, meanwhile, needs energy normalisation after months of elevated fuel prices, SPR releases and disruptions across the Gulf.

Crude is pricing diplomacy before physical recovery

The speed of this week's sell-off is particularly notable because there has been little evidence yet of a meaningful recovery in physical flows. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed. Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters showed just five commodity vessels crossing on August 25, compared with a ten-day average of around 15. Before the conflict, the Strait handled roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and LNG.

In other words, crude prices are falling not because large volumes of disrupted oil have suddenly returned to the market, but because traders are assigning a greater probability to their return in the coming weeks.

The market has moved from pricing a high probability of prolonged disruption and renewed escalation towards pricing partial reopening, negotiated shipping arrangements and a lower risk of renewed military confrontation.

This also leaves the market vulnerable in both directions. A credible agreement that rapidly restores Hormuz traffic could remove another layer of geopolitical premium. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations could force traders to rebuild risk premium almost as quickly as it has disappeared.

Product stress eases but remains extreme

The same improvement in sentiment is visible in refined products, although here the physical tightness remains much clearer. The WTI-ULSD spread has retreated to around USD 88 per barrel after recently trading above USD 100, while the Brent-gasoil spread has dropped back below USD 70 from above USD 80 last week.

Those are substantial declines, but they should be viewed in context. Both remain at exceptionally elevated levels compared with normal conditions. This time last year, the WTI-ULSD spread traded just above USD 30, while the Brent-gasoil spread traded around USD 22 per barrel, highlighting that the refining system continues to face severe constraints even as the panic premium begins to ease.

Middle Eastern refinery outages remain an important factor, while developments in Russia are adding another layer of pressure, particularly across middle distillates. Repeated Ukrainian attacks have disrupted Russian refineries and export infrastructure, potentially restricting diesel exports through September as Moscow attempts to protect domestic supplies amid refinery outages.

Based on these observations, we can conclude that crude is increasingly trading diplomacy while diesel and gasoil are still trading scarcity.

Elevated fuel product prices relative to crude oil - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Peace dividend or premature optimism?

The sharp correction in crude reflects signs of an improving diplomatic backdrop, and after months of confrontation both sides increasingly have economic reasons to seek a way out.

The immediate downside risk for oil is clear: successful negotiations followed by a sustained reopening of Hormuz could release trapped Gulf barrels, ease shipping costs and further reduce the geopolitical premium. Back in June, when the Strait opened for a few weeks, Brent crude slumped all the way to USD 70 per barrel.

The opposite risk is equally important. The market may already be pricing the first stages of a peace dividend before any meaningful peace dividend has actually arrived. Looking again at the most recent developments, the failure to secure a deal following the June reopening drove renewed hostility and a subsequent USD 30 rebound in Brent.

Based on these recent developments, the only thing traders seem to be guaranteed is continued price volatility. It remains to be seen not whether tensions have eased — they clearly have — but how much de-escalation is already reflected in the price.

For now, the market appears willing to believe that Washington and Tehran have finally found sufficient reason to search for an exit ramp. The next test will be whether diplomacy can turn that expectation into ships actually moving through Hormuz again.

WTI crude trades near USD 80, more than 10% below the USD 88.5 average seen during the past six months - Source: Saxo

Managed money positions across key oil and fuel futures contracts - Source: CFTC, Bloomberg & Saxo

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
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A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA

Software’s next growth problem: more customers or more from each customer?

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Intuit is accepting slower near-term growth to attract and retain more customers.
Zoom is trying to sell more products to customers already using its platform.
For investors, where growth comes from can matter as much as how fast revenue grows.

Growing a software company used to look almost suspiciously simple. Add customers, raise prices and sell more licences.

Intuit and Zoom Communications show why the next stage is harder.

Intuit, which owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, expects revenue growth to slow from 14% in fiscal 2026 to 9% to 10% in fiscal 2027. Management is deliberately prioritising customer growth, including through pricing and higher spending to attract customers.

Zoom is taking almost the opposite route. Its video-meeting business is mature, so it wants existing customers to buy more products.

For investors, the contrast offers a useful lesson. Revenue growth is only the final number. The interesting part is how a company creates it.

Intuit lowers the toll

Intuit has spent years benefiting from strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power. Now it is testing whether charging customers less today can create more value tomorrow.

Management says pricing has become an important reason some TurboTax customers leave. The company is responding by widening access and investing more in attracting customers.

That comes with a cost. TurboTax revenue is expected to grow just 2% to 3% in fiscal 2027, while Mailchimp revenue could be flat or fall slightly.

The key question is simple: is Intuit voluntarily lowering the toll to get more cars onto the bridge, or is competition forcing it to lower the toll?

The first can be smart investment. Lower prices can bring in customers who remain for years and later buy other services. The second is more concerning because it can signal weakening pricing power.

Investors therefore need to look beyond slower revenue growth. Customer growth, retention and future spending per customer will tell us whether the sacrifice is paying off.

Zoom builds more rooms

Zoom has a different problem. Finding another pandemic-sized wave of video-meeting users is unlikely to be a sensible business plan.

Instead, Zoom is expanding what existing business customers can buy. Beyond Meetings, it now offers products including Phone, Contact Center and artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

This is called cross-selling: selling an existing customer another product.

There are signs of progress. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew 4.9%, while enterprise revenue rose 7.8%, its fastest growth in three years. Adoption of Zoom's AI virtual agent also more than tripled from a year earlier.

The equation is simple:

existing customer → more products → higher customer value → faster enterprise growth

Zoom does not necessarily need millions of new customers if each existing relationship becomes broader.

Four ways software can grow

Intuit and Zoom highlight a useful framework. Most mature software companies have four basic growth levers:

Add more customers.
Raise prices.
Sell more products to existing customers.
Increase how much customers use or spend on existing products.

These routes are not equally attractive.

Price increases can be highly profitable, but only while customers accept them. Customer acquisition can expand the market, but becomes expensive if new users quickly leave. Cross-selling can be powerful because the company already has the customer relationship, but only if the new products are genuinely useful.

The quality of growth therefore depends partly on what happens after the first sale.

What can go wrong

For Intuit, the warning sign would be lower prices without meaningfully better customer growth or retention. That would leave the company earning less without gaining enough scale.

For Zoom, watch whether newer products keep growing faster than Meetings. If they remain too small to lift overall growth, strong adoption headlines may have limited financial impact.

Competition matters for both. Software customers have more choices, while AI could make it easier for rivals to launch new products.

Investor playbook

Look behind revenue growth: separate customer growth, pricing and additional product sales.
Watch retention: attracting customers creates little value if they leave quickly.
Follow spending per customer: rising customer value can support growth even in mature markets.
Compare growth with margins: faster growth becomes less attractive if acquiring it gets increasingly expensive.

Not all growth is created equal

Software growth rarely disappears overnight. It usually changes shape.

Intuit is trying to widen the funnel by making its products easier to enter. Zoom is trying to make each customer relationship bigger. Both approaches can work, and both can fail. The harder question is which route creates lasting value.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - Nvidia results in focus as crude slides and Korean chipmakers lead Asia - 26 August 2026

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:45:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Cheaper crude and hopes of a Gulf reopening set the tone before heavy data
Equities: US and European equities advanced as oil and yields eased, Asian stocks traded firmer but remained cautious ahead of Nvidia.
Digital Assets: Coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard on record fund inflows
Commodities: LME copper hits fresh record high; oil falls on signs of a US-Iran offramp; gold consolidates
Fixed Income: Global bonds rally on steep sell-off in crude oil, punching yields lower
Currencies: Japanese yen finds modest support on lower bond yields. CAD lower on US trade spat, AUD jumps on AU CPI.

Macro

Oil fell as Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with talks aimed at a permanent traffic and security framework. Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran to support diplomacy, Qatar said its mediation continues, and new US measures on Iran were milder than expected, stopping short of secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian agency RIA reported that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal that would include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Australia July CPI surprised to the upside, with the headline reading 3.5% YoY versus a drop to 3.3% expected and 3.8% in June, while the core readings got the most attention as the “trimmed mean” measure rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY versus 3.6% expected and 3.6% in June.
The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data for August saw a bifurcation as the Present Situation index rebounded from a revised five-year low in July, while the Expectations index fell sharply to 68.2 from 74.0. It was the lowest reading since January. The overall index was almost steady at 89.4 versus 90.2 expected and 90.2 in July.
US July New Home Sales fell to a 607k annualized pace versus 620k expected, but the June data was revised up sharply to 678k from 628k originally reported.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June 2026, the fastest since June 2025 and above the 1.7% forecast, but real prices fell for the 13th month as 3.5% inflation outpaced gains. Chicago (6.9%), New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%) led increases, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%) declined.
Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.2% but down from 0.4% in Q1. Exports rose 2.0%, outpacing 1.5% import growth, while domestic demand edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% fall. Investment stayed weak, with gross fixed capital formation down 0.2%, as machinery and equipment fell 1.4% and construction rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q1.
Canada imposed 15%–50% tariffs on about USD 20 billion of US imports after trade talks collapsed, while the US plans 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Markets cut Bank of Canada rate-hike expectations despite higher energy prices. In response, the Trump administration is said to be weighing additional trade penalties, including higher tariffs and other measures.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US July Personal Income & Spending
1230 – US July PCE Price Index
1230 – US 2Q GDP, Personal Consumption & Price Index (second reading)
1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes

The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.6% as falling oil prices and Treasury yields revived demand for technology shares. Nvidia gained 2.2% ahead of earnings, while AMD jumped 4.9% after a Raymond James upgrade and Moderna surged 14.4% as analysts reassessed its cancer-vaccine opportunity. Dick’s Sporting Goods plunged 30.7% after cutting its annual outlook. After hours, Intuit fell 10.0% as its fiscal 2027 guidance missed expectations, with Nvidia earnings and US inflation data now taking centre stage.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.3% and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, as softer-than-feared US sanctions on Iran and falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Healthcare led gains, with Novo Nordisk rising 2.9% after JPMorgan lifted its price target, while Melrose Industries surged 10.4% after outlining a restart of production at its GKN Aerospace facility. Kering fell 3.3% as luxury stocks lagged, while Wolters Kluwer dropped 3.1% after Google launched a new artificial-intelligence tool for the legal industry. Nvidia and Jackson Hole remained the next key tests.
Asia: Asian equities traded firmer in today’s session as lower oil prices and the rebound in US chip stocks supported sentiment, although investors remained cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results. South Korea recovered from a weak open, with Samsung Electronics gaining around 1.0% and SK Hynix rising 1.2% as semiconductor shares stabilised, while Japan’s Advantest fell 1.7% as investors trimmed exposure ahead of the earnings event. Alibaba gained 1.4% in Hong Kong after reports that founder Jack Ma bought more than HK$600 million of shares following the company’s large AI-focused capital raise. Nvidia remained the main regional catalyst.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard. CleanSpark gained 6.87%, Riot 6.50%, Cipher 6.18%, IREN 6.03% and Marathon 5.81%, while Coinbase rose 4.28% and Strategy 3.42%. Circle added 4.90%. Solana and XRP lagged the majors.
Bitcoin and ether funds drew USD 2.6 billion in the week to 21 August, their strongest week of 2026, with roughly USD 1.92 billion into the bitcoin products and USD 697 million into the ether ones.

Commodities

Copper extended its gains in Asia after a record close in London on Tuesday, rising 0.5% to USD 14,415.50/t on the LME. The rally continues to be supported by persistent tightness in near-term supply of the key transition metal, as large volumes are shipped to the US, draining stockpiles elsewhere at a time when mine supply is struggling to keep pace with growing demand. In New York, the High Grade copper contract trades near USD 6.75 per pound, just shy of the record USD 6.8665 reached earlier this month.
Oil: Crude trades lower for a third day after tumbling on Tuesday as Iran and Oman discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US “Economic D-Day” measures against Iran proved milder than expected. Together, these developments point towards a potential de-escalation, with both sides seemingly looking for an offramp from the conflict. Meanwhile, the API reported another build in US crude inventories, which, if confirmed by the EIA later today, would mark a fourth consecutive weekly increase.
Gold continues to consolidate following a four-day rally that lifted prices by more than 7%. A recovering dollar is providing a headwind, partly offset by lower oil prices feeding through to lower bond yields. Attention is now turning to today’s July PCE inflation data, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, with markets looking for further guidance on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global yields were punched lower Tuesday as crude oil prices sold off steeply. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield dropped back nearly six basis points Tuesday to below 4.18% before rebounding back above 4.18% in early trading Wednesday, while the benchmark 10-year shied further away from the recent range top of 4.75%, falling about six basis points from Monday’s 4.70% close to below 4.64% late Tuesday before buying pressure eased.
Bond markets will closely watch today’s July PCE inflation data, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure and expected to show core inflation running at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, unchanged from June. The latter measure saw a peak since late 2023 at 3.42% YoY in May. Potentially more important for US Treasury yields will be any policy hints in Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday.

Currencies

The Japanese yen recovered modestly on the massive mark-down in crude oil prices, which helped drag global bond yields lower. USDJPY eased back from local highs near 159.50 late Tuesday to trade back toward 159.00 by early Wednesday in Europe after testing slightly below that level.
The US dollar action is neutral as the market holds its breath ahead of the Friday speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which looks particularly pivotal after the US Treasury weighed in with policies and rhetorical signals recently clearly intended to cap long-term US Treasury yields.
CAD remains at the weaker side of the recent range on the risk of a widening US-Canada trade spat as the US side is said to be weighing further tariffs after Canada’s tit-for-tat response to the latest US tariffs imposed on a range of Canadian goods. USDCAD hovers near 1.3860.
The Australian dollar jumped on the hot CPI data (see above), which sent anticipation of further RBA tightening higher. AUDNZD rose sharply from around 1.1980 to above 1.2050 after the data, its highest in a week, as AUDUSD rose to new highs since late May near 0.7180.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key Points

Gold pauses after a powerful four-day rally, having gained around USD 350 before reaching a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700.
Investor demand has recently returned, with ETF holdings rising by around 60 tonnes in August while hedge funds have lifted their COMEX net long to an 11-month high.
The latest rebound has been supported by technical momentum buying underpinned by renewed fiscal and debt concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand and the potential for renewed dollar weakness.
Consolidation would be healthy after the recent surge, with USD 4,770 the next major resistance area, while the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519 provides initial support.

Gold steadied after a four-day rally that lifted prices by around USD 350, with some consolidation emerging after the metal hit a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700 during the Asian session. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The limited weakness seen so far today appears primarily driven by profit-taking following the sharp run higher, together with a continued recovery in the dollar. The Dollar Index has now recouped more than half of the losses suffered following last week’s US Treasury buyback announcement. The greenback received additional support after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would seek to cut Iran off from the global financial system, underscoring the dollar’s central role in global trade and finance while also reinforcing its traditional haven appeal.

Investor demand has strengthened noticeably. So far this month, total gold ETF holdings have risen by around 60 tonnes, putting August on track for the strongest monthly inflow since last September, while hedge funds have boosted their net long position in COMEX gold futures to an 11-month high, and as per the chart below the highest since January if we broaden the focus to include the "Other Reportables" category. Both developments highlight how renewed momentum, a technical breakout and heightened political, fiscal and financial concerns can quickly translate into stronger demand for bullion.

The drivers that have brought traders and investors back to gold have not gone away and we believe they are likely to remain supportive in the coming months. These include concerns about US fiscal sustainability and elevated debt levels, the prospect of renewed dollar weakness, central-bank demand and continued geopolitical uncertainty. In the near term, however, attention may shift towards consolidation, with bond-yield developments and signals from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium likely to provide direction.

The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.

After such a rapid advance, an orderly rally would arguably be healthier than another sharp acceleration. It allows investors and traders to build or reduce exposure without having to chase the market higher. Vertical moves tend to encourage hurried decision-making, while also increasing the risk of positioning becoming stretched and triggering a sharper correction when momentum eventually fades.

From a technical perspective, resistance is seen around USD 4,770, an area that combines the 50% retracement of the January-to-June correction with the May local highs. Initial support is at the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,519, followed by USD 4,410.

What could challenge the bullish narrative?

The renewed strength in gold does not come without risks. A sustained rebound in the dollar may remove an important source of support. Likewise, a more hawkish-than-expected message from Jackson Hole, reduced expectations for future Fed easing, or signs that US fiscal concerns are beginning to ease could trigger profit-taking after the recent sharp rally. Improving geopolitical conditions could also reduce haven demand, while increasingly stretched speculative positioning raises the risk that even a relatively modest change in the macro backdrop could produce a deeper correction. Technically, a failure to hold the breakout, particularly a move back below the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519, may weaken the current bullish momentum.

Gold investment demand through ETFs and futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Spot Gold with key technical levels - Source: Saxo

Spot gold 5-year chart - Source: Saxo

Related articles/content
24 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026 21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally 20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder 18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now 17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

24 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026
21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally
20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder
18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now
17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities USA Gold Silver Platinum Federal Reserve

Market Quick Take - Wider tariffs and another chip selloff as gold extends its run - 25 August 2026

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:50:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Washington widens tariffs on Canada and China and sanctions a broad Iranian network
Equities: US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased ahead of key earnings from Nvidia
Digital Assets: Coins and the large funds advanced while the listed miners went the other way
Commodities: Gold rally pauses after strong run with crude lower for a second day
Fixed Income: Yields fell right along the curve on cheaper oil and buyback speculation
Currencies: The dollar partly recovers from recent losses

Macro

Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after talks collapsed, prompting Ottawa to vow equal retaliation. President Trump also said tariffs on autos, auto parts and steel will rise to 50% from 1 January 2027. Separately, the US is reportedly planning a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over alleged excess capacity ahead of a Trump-Xi summit next month, a move that would lift the average second-term tariff rate on China back to around 20%.
The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks, extending across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, as well as a network of brokers and shadow-fleet vessels. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that a major financial institution, potentially in China, could be added to the sanctions list this week, raising the risk of secondary effects on trade and financial flows.
The one piece of US data was soft. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July from 0.06 in June, with three of its four broad categories deteriorating and personal consumption and housing turning sharply negative. The three-month moving average slipped to -0.04 from 0.01, pointing to a modest loss of economic momentum.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany 2Q GDP
0800 – Germany August IFO Business Climate
1400 – US July New Home Sales
1400 – US August Consumer Confidence

Earnings events

Today: Intuit, Zoom Communications
Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: Chipmakers led a mixed close. The S&P 500 slipped 0.28% to 7,652.86 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.97% to 29,023.18, while the Dow rose 0.26% to 53,422.35; the Russell 2000 lost 0.76% and the equal-weighted S&P added 0.10%, which in our view may point to a decline concentrated in the largest technology names rather than a broad one. Nvidia fell 2.91% to 208.48, a seventh consecutive losing session and its longest such run since 2022, with AMD down 3.49%, Broadcom 2.63% and the semiconductor tracker 2.43%. Seagate lost 6.5%, the largest single-stock decline in the index, and Tesla fell 3.83%. Meta rose 1.66%, Amazon 1.33% and Alphabet 0.94%. Financials led the sectors, up 1.29%, and utilities added 1.05%, while technology fell 1.78% and energy 0.83%. During the Asian session, US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased, signaling tentative optimism ahead of key earnings tomorrow from Nvidia after the US close.
Europe: Monday closed mixed with a weaker bias. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished unchanged at 654.22, the Euro Stoxx 50 eased 0.22% to 6,447.99, the DAX slipped 0.11% to 26,106.60 and the CAC 40 lost 0.37% to 8,453.01, while the AEX rose 0.36% and the FTSE 100 added 0.06% to 10,861. Euro-area banks were the standout, up 0.72%, and precious-metals miners outperformed on bullion's advance. Canada's S&P/TSX closed 0.3% higher despite the tariff news, with gold producers offsetting industrials.
Asia: Chinese technology carried Monday's damage. Alibaba fell 8.5% in Hong Kong after placing 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 to raise HK$80 billion, about USD 10.2 billion, for artificial-intelligence chips, models and infrastructure, an 8.4% discount to the previous close; the MSCI China index lost 2.3% in US trading. This morning has been steadier than the open suggested: the Nikkei 225 is 0.39% higher at 65,782, the Kospi has pared a roughly 3% opening drop to 0.61% lower at 6,656, the Hang Seng is 0.25% lower and Australia's ASX 200 0.59% higher. SoftBank is separately planning a record JPY 1 trillion retail bond sale.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Coins and the two large US spot funds advanced overnight while the listed miners went the other way. Strategy gained 2.83% and Bitmine 5.74%, but Coinbase fell 3.76%, IREN 4.94% and Cipher 2.57%. Solana added 2.61% and XRP 2.13%.
The Senate is scheduled to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on 15 September, after the majority leader filed a cloture motion; the procedural step needs 60 votes and no floor vote took place before the summer recess.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades lower for a second day as the US ramps up economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners in an effort to force the resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. With no further military escalation and some tankers slipping through after buying heavily discounted oil to compensate for the elevated transit risk, the market remains in limbo. However, the drawn-out disruption continues to tighten the availability of crude and, not least, refined products, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed price spikes should flows deteriorate again.
Gold: Gold steadies following a four-day rally that lifted the price by around USD 350 before giving back roughly USD 78 after hitting a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700 during the Asian session. So far this month, investors have lifted total ETF holdings by around 60 tonnes, putting August on track for the strongest monthly inflow since last September, while hedge funds have boosted their net long in COMEX gold futures to an 11-month high. Both developments highlight how a combination of renewed momentum, a technical breakout and heightened political and financial concerns can rapidly translate into stronger demand for bullion.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Treasuries rallied along the curve on Monday, with the long end leading. The 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.706% and the 30-year 4.1 basis points to 5.232%, a move that began with cheaper oil and gathered pace on a report that the Treasury General Account could be used to fund expanded buybacks. A little of that has come back this morning, the 10-year at 4.716% and the 30-year at 5.241%, with the two-year at 4.249%. The long-bond fund gained 0.62% and rate volatility barely moved, MOVE up 0.79% to 73.98.

Currencies

USD: The dollar held onto Monday’s gains, with the DXY having recovered more than half of the losses suffered following last week’s US Treasury buyback announcement. The greenback strengthened after Bessent said the US would seek to cut Iran off from the global financial system, underscoring the dollar’s central role in global trade and finance while also boosting its traditional haven appeal.
CAD: The Canadian dollar remains under pressure after US-Canada trade talks collapsed and Trump threatened to double auto tariffs, sending USDCAD back towards Monday’s high around 1.3860.
JPY: USDJPY rose to 159.40 as the yen weakened after Bessent refrained from providing further signals on US debt-management measures that could weigh on long-term yields. Meanwhile, a former BOJ board member flagged a September rate hike as likely, offering a potential source of yen support as the pair approaches the psychologically important 160 level.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

SHEIN IPO: From $100 billion to $27 billion — what investors need to know

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:00:00 Z

Key points:

SHEIN is seeking to raise up to US$1.8 billion in Hong Kong, at a valuation of around US$26–27 billion — roughly 70% below its near-US$100 billion valuation in 2022.
The valuation reset reflects slower growth, higher tariffs, greater competition and regulatory risks, as well as the very different market environment compared with four years ago.
The contrast with hot technology IPOs is striking. Investors are still willing to pay high valuations for growth, but right now they see stronger growth and scalability in AI and technology than in fast fashion.
For investors considering the IPO, the important question is not whether SHEIN is cheaper than in 2022, but whether today's price adequately reflects its future growth and risks.

SHEIN is finally coming to market

After failed attempts to list in New York and London, Singapore-headquartered SHEIN is finally preparing to make its stock-market debut in Hong Kong.

The fast-fashion retailer is offering 280 million shares at HK$47.60–HK$49.50 each, seeking to raise as much as HK$13.9 billion, or around US$1.8 billion. Trading is expected to begin on 1 September.

At the top of the price range, SHEIN would be valued at around US$27 billion. That is a substantial business, but a long way from the US$98 billion valuation it reached in private markets in 2022.

So what happened?

Why is SHEIN worth so much less than four years ago?

Part of the answer is that 2022 was an unusually favourable time to value a fast-growing online business. The pandemic had accelerated e-commerce, money was cheap and investors were willing to pay heavily for growth.

Today's backdrop looks very different:

Growth has slowed. SHEIN was once seen as a hyper-growth disruptor. Revenue growth has since moderated sharply, particularly in the US.
Profits have weakened. Annual net profit fell to around US$2 billion in 2025 from US$3.4 billion in 2024, while SHEIN reported a US$99 million net loss in the first quarter of 2026.
Tariffs have changed the economics. SHEIN benefited from rules allowing low-value parcels to enter the US with limited duties. Those advantages have been reduced, meaning higher costs for the company.
Prices may have to rise. SHEIN has said it is considering increasing US prices to offset some of the tariff hit. That creates a difficult trade-off: protect margins, or protect the ultra-low prices that helped make the brand successful.
Competition has intensified. Temu is targeting many of the same value-conscious consumers, while Amazon, Zara and H&M remain powerful rivals.
Regulatory risks have grown. SHEIN faces scrutiny in the US and Europe around its supply chain, sustainability, online marketplace and business practices.
Geopolitics has become part of the valuation. Its attempts to list first in New York and later London were complicated by tensions and regulatory scrutiny from both Western governments and China.

So this is not simply the same company being offered at a 70% discount.

SHEIN today has slower growth, weaker profit momentum and a higher regulatory risk premium than the company investors valued four years ago.

Why is demand different from big tech IPOs?

The contrast with recent enthusiasm around technology, AI and robotics listings may seem surprising.

But investors are making a distinction between different types of growth:

Tech currently has the stronger structural-growth story. AI, cloud infrastructure and robotics are addressing markets investors expect to expand significantly over the coming years.
There is greater scarcity. Public markets offer relatively few ways to access some emerging AI businesses. Investors already have many choices across retail and e-commerce.
The use of capital can look different. Many technology IPOs are sold on the idea of financing the next stage of expansion. SHEIN already has roughly US$15 billion of cash and short-term investments, raising questions over how much it actually needs the IPO proceeds.
Some of SHEIN's IPO demand comes from familiar investors. Several cornerstone investors are already existing backers. That is supportive, but it should not necessarily be interpreted as entirely new institutional conviction.
Momentum favours tech. AI remains one of the market's dominant growth stories, while retail businesses face pressure from tariffs, weaker consumers and higher costs.

There is an important caveat: strong IPO demand does not automatically make technology IPOs better investments.

High expectations can create their own risks. The more investors pay for future growth, the more vulnerable a stock can become if that growth disappoints.

Is it worth investing in the SHEIN IPO?

There is no simple yes-or-no answer.

SHEIN still has clear strengths: enormous brand recognition, global scale and a highly responsive supply chain that helped redefine fast fashion.

But investors need to balance those advantages against a tougher environment.

The main questions are:

Can SHEIN return to stronger revenue growth?
Can it protect margins despite tariffs and higher compliance costs?
Will customers remain loyal if prices rise?
Can growth outside the US and Europe offset pressure in its largest markets?
Can SHEIN reduce the regulatory discount surrounding the business?

The lower valuation makes the entry point less demanding than it was four years ago, but it does not remove the risks.

How could SHEIN's shares perform after listing?

Near-term share-price performance is particularly difficult to predict.

There are some supportive factors: the valuation has already been cut substantially, the amount of stock available is relatively limited, and the deal has attracted large cornerstone investors.

That could help the initial trading performance.

But IPOs can be driven by supply and demand in their first few days, rather than by long-term fundamentals.

Over the following quarters, investors are likely to care much more about:

revenue growth;
margins and cash generation;
the impact of US tariffs;
pricing and consumer demand;
regulatory developments; and
whether SHEIN can build new growth engines, including third-party marketplaces and expansion outside its traditional US and European markets.

The bigger lesson for investors

SHEIN's journey from almost US$100 billion to around US$27 billion is a useful reminder that valuations are ultimately tied to expectations.

Four years ago, investors were pricing SHEIN as one of the world's fastest-growing consumer internet businesses.

Today, they are being asked to value a large global retailer facing slower growth, higher tariffs, greater competition and much more regulatory scrutiny.

That does not necessarily make SHEIN a bad investment. Nor does a 70% valuation decline automatically make it a bargain.

The US$100 billion valuation is now history. What matters for investors is whether SHEIN can turn its huge scale into durable growth and profits from here — and whether US$27 billion is the right price for that opportunity.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Consumer Consumer Spending Amazon Retail spending Walmart Macro GDP Hong Kong 50

The many rewards of investing responsibly

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 14:30:00 Z

At its core, responsible investing is an investment approach that incorporates additional information about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities alongside traditional financial analysis. While it has come under pressure lately, the core idea remains compelling and the case for aligning investment decisions with long-term ESG outcomes remains relevant.

Responsible investing has faced increasing criticism in recent years. Some sustainable funds have lagged broader market indices, concerns about greenwashing have shaken investor confidence, and political opposition, particularly in parts of the United States, has slowed progress on ESG regulation globally and made it harder for some investors to pursue responsible investing strategies.

Despite these challenges, the case for investing responsibly remains valid, and here are some meaningful rewards investors may gain from taking a responsible approach.

1. Avoiding industries that conflict with personal values

One benefit of responsible investing is knowing that you are not allocating your capital to companies or industries whose products and services you believe may have a negative impact on individuals, communities, or the environment. Many investors choose to exclude sectors such as:

Tobacco and alcohol
Weapons and defence manufacturing
Adult entertainment
Gambling
Oil & Gas

These exclusions are often driven by personal values rather than financial considerations. For some investors, it simply feels inconsistent to support businesses that profit from activities they believe can contribute to addiction, violence, poor health outcomes or environmental disasters.

While no investor can single-handedly solve climate change or inequality, choosing to stay away from certain industries is one way individuals can ensure their money reflects their beliefs.

2. Supporting solutions to global challenges

Responsible investing is not only about avoiding harm, it is also about supporting companies and industries developing solutions to some of the world's most pressing challenges. Investors can direct capital towards businesses involved in areas such as:

Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
Electric vehicles and transport innovation
Water management and recycling technologies
Healthcare and medical innovation
Education and skills development

These industries aim to solve real-world problems, from climate change and pollution to food security. By investing in solution providers, investors can help channel market demand toward companies that are developing technologies, products, and services designed to improve quality of life and create a more sustainable future.

In many ways, investing is not a neutral act; it has consequences, either good or bad. Responsible investors intentionally allocate capital to businesses they believe can contribute positively to society and the environment. While there is no guarantee that these investment decisions will achieve their intended outcome, the intention to make a difference is there.

3. Managing ESG risks and identifying long-term opportunities

Research has shown that ESG factors can influence a company's long-term performance. Issues such as resource scarcity, changing consumer preferences, cybersecurity incidents, and governance shortcomings can all have meaningful financial implications. High profile examples include Volkswagen emission scandal, DWS/Deutsche Bank greenwashing allegations and BP's Deepwater Horizon environmental distater and governance failures. Beyond the substantial fines and legal costs, these events damaged trust in those companies, affecting share prices and customer behavior.

Just as investors may evaluate factors such as earnings quality, competitive positioning, or balance sheet strength, ESG analysis provides additional insights into risks that may not be fully captured by traditional financial metrics alone. By taking a broader view of the risks that companies may face, investors can develop a more comprehensive understanding of potential long-term outcomes. This may help them identify risks earlier, and potentially make more informed investment decisions.

Importantly, responsible investing is not only about identifying and managing risks. It also seeks to identify long-term opportunities created by structural changes in the global economy. Trends such as the transition to cleaner energy, increasing resource efficiency, digital transformation, and growing demand for sustainable products and services are creating new markets and reshaping existing industries. By considering how these trends may influence future growth, investors may be better positioned to identify companies that are well placed to benefit from them.

While recent periods of underperformance have fuelled criticism, this should not be mistaken for a permanent feature of responsible investing. Like other investment styles and factors, whether growth, value, quality or momentum, it can experience cycles of outperformance and underperformance as market conditions change.

4. Encouraging better corporate behaviour

Another benefit of responsible investing is the influence investors can have on companies.

Shareholders are not just passive owners. Through voting rights and dialogue with company management, investors can encourage businesses to improve practices related to:

Environmental management
Worker welfare
Diversity and inclusion
Transparency and accountability

When enough investors prioritise these issues, companies often face stronger incentives to improve governance, sustainability practices and disclosures. According to the CFA Institute, investor engagement has in recent years, contributed to changes in areas such as executive compensation structures, board oversight of sustainability risks, and climate reporting.

5. The personal reward of acting in line with your values

Investing responsibly can also provide something that cannot be measured on a performance chart: a sense of purpose.

Most people derive satisfaction from acting in ways that align with their values and find value in knowing they are making a conscious effort to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Whether it is volunteering, donating to charity, or helping a neighbour, doing what we believe is right, often contributes to our wellbeing.

An analogy might be helping an elderly person carry their shopping bags. It may require a small detour and some extra effort, but few people regret doing it afterward because they know it can make a positive difference to someone and this feels worthwhile in itself.

Investing in line with your values can have a similar effect and can provide a sense of satisfaction that extends beyond financial outcomes.

Conclusion

Responsible investing is not without its challenges. It faces legitimate criticisms, including inconsistent standards, greenwashing concerns, and different approaches to measuring positive societal and environmental outcomes. Excluding certain companies or sectors can reduce diversification and lead to periods of underperformance, depending on market conditions. In addition, changes in investor sentiment, regulatory developments, or political debates can influence the perception and adoption of responsible investment strategies.

However, focusing only on these challenges risks overlooking the broader picture. Like any investment approach, responsible investing involves balancing risks and opportunities and its potential benefits can take many forms. These include avoiding industries that conflict with your values, supporting companies addressing global challenges, managing risk, identifying long-term opportunities, and encouraging better corporate practices. For many investors, an additional benefit is the ability to align their investments with their principles.

While market cycles, political debates, and regulatory changes will continue to shape the conversation around responsible investing and ESG, its fundamental appeal, which spans both financial and personal considerations, remains compelling for many investors.

How to invest responsibly with Saxo

Explore Saxo’s ESG themes for lists of companies and funds that demonstrate strong capabilities in managing their environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks.

Before making any investments, be sure to review the available information about the product on the platform and consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon.

Ida Kassa Johannesen

Head of Commercial ESG and Education

Saxo Bank

Topics: ESG Thought Starters Highlighted articles

Geopolitics and US and European yields in the spotlight

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:37:00 Z

Geopolitics matter.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Beyond Nvidia: software earnings put AI’s second act on trial

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia tests AI infrastructure demand, while software earnings show whether that spending is creating revenue further downstream.
Salesforce, Workday and Zoom face a crucial test: can AI strengthen subscriptions rather than undermine them?
Cybersecurity and custom chips may offer cleaner AI growth stories as companies secure and diversify their infrastructure.

Nvidia will dominate the earnings calendar on Wednesday, 26 August. But investors looking beyond graphics processing units may learn just as much from the companies reporting around it.

From Tuesday to Thursday, Intuit, Zoom Communications, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Workday, Autodesk, Rubrik, Synopsys and Marvell Technology all report. Together, they provide a useful test of the next stage of artificial intelligence (AI).

The first phase was simple enough: build more computing capacity. The next question is harder. Can companies turn all that computing power into products customers will repeatedly pay for?

That makes this week less about one earnings report and more about following the AI money downstream.

The software industry needs to show the receipts

Software as a service (SaaS) companies rely on recurring subscriptions. AI could strengthen that model by improving products and supporting higher spending, but it could also reduce employee numbers and therefore software licences.

That tension makes Salesforce an important test. The company is pushing its Agentforce AI agents, with more than half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings last quarter coming from existing customers. Salesforce guided for second-quarter revenue growth of around 10% to 11%.

The key question is not how often management mentions AI. Investors need evidence that it increases customer spending, contract growth and retention.

Zoom offers another test. Paid monthly users of AI Companion grew 184% year-on-year last quarter, but total revenue increased only 5.5%. Intuit faces a similar challenge across QuickBooks and TurboTax, where proprietary financial data could help it build more useful AI tools.

The safest software may be the software protecting everything else

Cybersecurity could offer a cleaner AI story.

More AI agents mean more identities accessing corporate systems and data, creating more doors companies need to lock.

CrowdStrike enters Wednesday with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 5.51 billion USD, while net new ARR grew 32% year-on-year last quarter. Okta provides another angle through identity security, where the question is whether protecting AI agents becomes an additional growth driver.

Rubrik adds data security and recovery. Its subscription ARR increased 32% last quarter, while revenue rose 39%.

More AI does not automatically mean more software revenue. But it probably means more systems, identities and data worth protecting.

Nvidia is not the only chip story anymore

Marvell reports Thursday after announcing a major custom-chip partnership with Alphabet's Google. The agreement could generate up to 120 billion USD of business through fiscal 2033 if purchasing targets are met.

The broader point is that AI chips are becoming more specialised. Nvidia remains central, particularly for training advanced models, but large cloud companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Synopsys offers another route into that trend. Its software helps design and verify complex semiconductors, meaning more custom chips can also support demand for the tools used to build them.

Nvidia shows how strong AI infrastructure demand remains. Marvell and Synopsys show whether that spending is spreading into custom silicon and the wider semiconductor ecosystem.

Risks: AI adoption is not the same as AI economics

The main risk is confusing product adoption with monetisation. Millions of people can use an AI feature without materially increasing revenue.

A second warning sign would be weaker contract growth or retention at established software companies. That could suggest AI is reducing the value of traditional per-user subscriptions faster than vendors can create new revenue models.

Finally, expectations matter. Cybersecurity, custom chips and other perceived AI beneficiaries already carry substantial growth assumptions. Strong results may therefore need to be accompanied by equally strong outlooks.

Investor playbook

Separate usage from monetisation. Watch paid adoption, bookings and recurring revenue rather than AI product announcements alone.
Follow customer expansion. Strong retention and larger contracts show whether AI strengthens existing software relationships.
Compare different AI exposures. Application software, cybersecurity and custom chips face very different opportunities and risks.
Think across the value chain. AI exposure does not need to begin and end with the largest chipmaker.

AI’s second act is about monetisation

Nvidia will probably remain the week's biggest market event. But its numbers answer only one part of the AI investment question: how much computing infrastructure companies still want to buy.

The software reports tell investors what happens after those chips are installed. Salesforce, Workday and Zoom need to show that AI can strengthen their economics rather than weaken traditional subscriptions. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik can demonstrate whether securing AI creates a new layer of recurring demand. Marvell and Synopsys test whether infrastructure spending is broadening beyond general-purpose processors.

The next phase of AI investing may therefore be less about who owns the fastest chip and more about who can keep sending customers an invoice once the chips start working.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation

COT update: Agriculture buying surges while dollar longs face a reality check

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 18 August 2026, just ahead of the US Treasury bond buyback announcement which triggered position adjustments across markets.
Agriculture attracts aggressive buying: Hedge funds bought 276k grain and soft commodity contracts worth around USD 9 billion, lifting the combined net long to 756k contracts, close to a 3½-year high.
Sugar sees a dramatic positioning reversal: Funds have swung from a 112k net short to a 151k net long in just three weeks, with weather concerns and tightening supply expectations driving the turnaround.
Dollar bulls caught offside: The combined USD long eased for a third week to USD 35.7 billion but remains far above the USD 5 billion held when dollar indices last traded near current levels, leaving positioning vulnerable after last week’s sharp reversal.
Precious metals poised for another positioning shift: Gold length reached an 11-month high ahead of the Treasury buyback announcement, while the subsequent 6–10% surge across gold, silver and platinum suggests next week’s COT report could reveal another sizeable adjustment.

Forex

Ahead of the dollar tumble following last Wednesday’s US Treasury bond buyback announcement, speculators made a third consecutive, albeit modest, weekly reduction in bullish dollar bets. Overall, the non-commercial USD long against eight IMM futures was reduced by USD 1.3 billion to USD 35.7 billion, with notable buying of CAD and CHF partly offset by selling of JPY and AUD.

Worth noting that when the Dollar Index and the broader Bloomberg Dollar Index last traded near current levels three months ago, the combined dollar long was just USD 5 billion. The subsequent build-up in bullish exposure highlights the number of positions potentially caught offside by last week’s sharp dollar reversal.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

In commodities, the latest reporting week to 18 August covered the period leading up to last Wednesday’s surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which subsequently triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar tumble provided broader support across commodities.

During the reporting week itself, the Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 1.7%, with losses in metals and livestock offset by strength in energy and, not least, agriculture. Grains rallied 5.2% and soft commodities 4%, supported by a combination of a softer dollar, firmer crude oil prices strengthening the biofuel link, lower-than-expected US corn yields, renewed Russia-Ukraine attacks on grain infrastructure and weather concerns underpinning key soft commodities such as coffee and sugar.

Overall, the week belonged to agriculture. Since late June, funds have responded to an increasingly supportive fundamental backdrop by turning into aggressive buyers. Over this period, the combined managed-money position across six grain and soybean contracts and four soft commodities has swung from a 188,000-contract net short to a 756,000-contract net long, almost matching the 3½-year high of 774,000 contracts reached in early May.

In the latest reporting week alone, hedge funds bought a net 276,000 contracts with a nominal value of around USD 9 billion. The biggest contributions came from sugar (+92.4k), corn (+83.7k) and soybeans (+50.3k). Corn buying was particularly broad, with longs rising by 42.7k contracts while shorts were cut by 41k, lifting the net long to 250.5k contracts.

Sugar has undergone an even more dramatic positioning reversal. In just three weeks, funds have moved from a 112k-contract net short to a 151k net long, a swing of more than 260k contracts. The turnaround has been driven by El Niño-related weather concerns, rising price volatility, uncertainty over demand and supply prospects in India, as well as expectations that Brazilian mills may direct a larger share of cane towards sugar production. With the net long now matching its one-year high, however, positioning has quickly moved from a supportive tailwind to a potential source of volatility should the fundamental outlook soften.

Turning to energy, renewed price strength saw the combined crude oil net long rise for a second week, although at a relatively moderate pace to 354k contract which is near the center of the 121k to 554k range seen since March and the Middle East war. WTI buying was limited, while Brent saw both gross longs and shorts reduced, highlighting continued low conviction following the recent whipsaw price action. Elsewhere, all fuel contracts and natural gas attracted moderate buying, with the strongest percentage increase seen in the ULSD net long.

Precious metals, meanwhile, paused to consolidate their recent strong gains ahead of the Treasury buyback-related surge that occurred after the reporting period, when platinum subsequently jumped 9.5%, silver 9% and gold 6.2%. During the week to 18 August, funds added modestly to gold and silver exposure, with the gold net long rising to an 11-month high of 146k contracts, while platinum and palladium both saw net selling.

The timing is important: the COT data therefore captures positioning immediately before the latest acceleration in precious metals and the sharp dollar decline. Next week’s report should provide a clearer indication of how much fresh speculative demand - and potentially short covering -accompanied the post-buyback surge

Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Energy sector - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Gold, silver, platinum and copper - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Grains and soybeans - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Softs - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:

They are more likely to have tight stops and no underlying physical exposure that needs to be hedged
This makes them more reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
Their positioning provides insight into major trends, while extreme positions can also help identify when a reversal or correction may be looming

Related articles/content
21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally 20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder 18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now 17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

21 Aug 2026: Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally
20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder
18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now
17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - Nvidia Earnings and Jackson Hole top this week's agenda

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:05:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 24 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Washington readies fresh Iran sanctions as a heavy week of catalysts begins
Equities: US and European shares rebounded Friday, while Asian equities fell Monday as Samsung and Alibaba pressured technology stocks.
Digital Assets: Fund demand carried the large proxies while the miners went their own way
Commodities: Oil trades lower before new sanctions while bullion extended its run
Fixed Income: US treasury yields remain near cycle highs at long end. German-France yield spread in focus as France 10-year yield at 17-year high.
Currencies: Major currencies sluggish, AUD jumped higher Friday.

Macro

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed the “toughest” sanctions in history against Iran, aiming to intensify economic pressure on the country and its trading partners. The move could further tighten global oil supplies, with Iranian exports already disrupted and offers to China reduced. Tehran dismissed the threat, saying it can withstand sanctions and maintain trade elsewhere, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high and traffic is still below normal.
US–Canada trade talks collapsed on Friday, with disagreements over tariffs on Canadian medium- and heavy-duty vehicles among the key sticking points. The new 50% US tariffs on around USD 20 billion of Canadian goods have now taken effect, prompting Prime Minister Mark Carney to vow a dollar-for-dollar response on selected US goods from September 8. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no new talks are currently planned and that Washington is instead preparing measures in response to Canada’s retaliation.
The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 56 in August 2026 from 54.5 in July, the strongest since April 2022. Faster services growth offset softer manufacturing, where output rose at the weakest pace in 13 months amid supply issues. Backlogs increased as delivery times lengthened. Hiring grew at the fastest rate since early 2025 and confidence hit a nine-month high. Selling price pressures eased, though input costs remained elevated on higher energy prices.
The week carries two outsized catalysts. Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday 26 August after the US close, in our view the largest scheduled test of the AI trade this month. The Jackson Hole symposium then runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering the keynote on Friday 28 August, the same session that brings the US personal consumption expenditures report. Today itself is quiet, with no scheduled US data and no US corporate reporting.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

No data of note today

Earnings events

Tuesday: Intuit, Zoom Communications
Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday, the Dow gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%. Treasury measures to support long-term bond liquidity and resilient US business activity helped calm nerves after yields surged earlier in the week. Robinhood jumped 13.7% and Coinbase gained 8.2% as bitcoin rallied, while Ross Stores rose 4.4% after raising its annual profit forecast. Moderna added another 8.9% after its breakthrough melanoma vaccine results drove an extraordinary week. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday now take centre stage.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.6% on Friday, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4% and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.6%, although European stocks still ended the week lower. Sentiment improved as eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace this year. Nibe Industrier jumped 8.8% after strong second-quarter results, while JD Sports rebounded 5.6% following Thursday’s sharp post-guidance selloff. Monte dei Paschi fell 1.3% after launching €34 billion of combined all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, which declined 0.4% and 2.1%, respectively.
Asia: Asian equities moved lower on Monday, with the Kospi down around 3.0%, the Hang Seng falling 2.1% and the Nikkei 225 losing 0.5% as technology shares came under renewed pressure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Samsung Electronics plunged 8.9% after its record shareholder-return plan disappointed investors hoping for more aggressive buybacks, while SK Hynix fell 2.3%. Alibaba dropped 9.1% after pricing a $10.2 billion share placement at a discount, with the proceeds earmarked entirely for artificial intelligence investment. The region now faces a busy week of Nvidia earnings, central-bank events and further scrutiny of AI spending.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The listed proxies powered ahead on Friday while the miners split away. Coinbase gained 8.20% and Strategy 6.10%, with the two large US spot funds also sharply higher, but Cipher lost 8.40%, Riot 5.48% and CleanSpark 4.92%. Spot has since drifted lower in Asian hours.
Spot bitcoin and ether funds drew about USD 2.6 billion through Friday, reported as the strongest week of 2026, with bitcoin products taking USD 1.918 billion across five sessions. The regulator proposed its Regulation Crypto Assets framework on 18 August.

Commodities

Gold extended its recent strong gains as last week’s US Treasury intervention continued to reverberate across markets, raising the prospect of a weaker dollar while reinforcing demand for debasement trades amid growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability. Spot gold’s break back above its 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,516, continues to attract fresh technical and momentum-driven demand, with prices reaching USD 4,656 during the Asian session. Traders and investors will be focusing on the dollar, US Treasury yields and, not least, the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is due to deliver his first keynote address on Friday, 28 August.
Oil: Crude slipped after a two-week rally as traders awaited details of the US plan to increase the economic pressure on Iran, due later Monday. Brent eased toward USD 93 after gaining around 13% over the past two weeks, while WTI traded near USD 86. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to unveil the measures and press US allies to participate. With the US-Iran war now in its sixth month and continuing to restrict global supplies of crude and refined products, it remains unclear how Washington can meaningfully increase the pressure on Tehran without targeting China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, and risking significant economic and geopolitical blowback.
The latest COT reporting week to 18 August covered the period leading up to last Wednesday’s surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which subsequently triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar tumble provided broader support across commodities. Overall, however, the week belonged to agriculture which has seen continued demand since late June amid an increasingly supportive fundamental backdrop, helped by a softer dollar, firmer crude oil prices strengthening the biofuel link, lower-than-expected US corn yields, Russia-Ukraine attacks on grain infrastructure, and not least weather concerns.
Corn and wheat both starting the week adding to recent strong gains, supported by forecasts for a smaller US corn harvest and persistent tensions in the Black Sea region stoking concerns over global supplies. Over the weekend Ukraine’s Zelenskyy said Russia rejected Ukraine’s offer of a truce on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasury yields rose into the close of trading for the week on Friday, but dipped in early Monday trading as crude oil prices shied away from cycle highs. The benchmark US 10-year yield close just below the key 4.75% level that has nearly been touched on four occasions in the last few weeks of trading, but dipped toward 4.71% in early trading Monday. The benchmark 30-year yield trades in the middle of the recent range near 5.25% after posting a new 19-year high of 5.33% before the US Treasury announced it would increase its buyback programmed of long-date treasuries starting next month. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose five basis points Friday to close above 4.23%, its highest close in nearly two weeks.
Europe’s government bond yields have been tracking US treasury yields higher of late, with the benchmark 10-year German Bund trading near 3.25% for much of last week after posting near 16-year highs above 3.22% early last week. As well, the rise in yields is seeing a widening of the spread between German and other Eurozone members’ government bond yields. The France-German 10-year yield spread widened above 87 basis points last week, up from below 80 basis points two weeks ago and from near 60 basis points at the start of the summer. This is the widest the spread has been since a spike to 88 basis points in late 2024, when France was struggling to put together a budget for the upcoming year, triggering fears of a government collapse.

Currencies

The major currencies chopped within tight trading ranges Friday and early Monday as the market mulls the recent announcement of increased Treasury buybacks, nominally USD bearish, with the lack of follow-on response in US treasury yields. USDJPY dipped as low as 158.36 on Friday, but crawled back toward 159.00 by the close of trading for the week, near where it also trades in early European hours Monday. EURUSD, meanwhile, couldn’t maintain above 1.1700 on Friday, closing the week near 1.1680, where it also trades early Monday.
The Australian dollar firmed sharply on Friday, possibly inspired by the recent surge in precious metals prices, and rebounding from prior weakness after soft Australian employment data.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

Nvidia earnings: Five questions investors should ask

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:00:00 Z

Key points:

Expectations matter as much as the numbers: Nvidia is already expected to deliver another strong quarter, so investors should focus on the size of the beat and, more importantly, forward guidance.
Supply, margins and financing are the key pressure points: Watch whether Nvidia can ship enough high-end chips, protect margins despite higher memory costs, and sustain AI spending without increasingly aggressive financing structures.
The long-term story is getting broader: Nvidia is increasingly selling an entire AI ecosystem — chips, networking, systems and software — but with bond yields near 5%, even strong fundamentals may not guarantee a strong share-price reaction.

Nvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results on Wednesday, 26 August, after the US market close.

Expectations are already high. Bloomberg consensus in the latest estimates points to around $92.2 billion in revenue, up roughly 97% year-on-year, with adjusted EPS of about $2.09, more than double a year earlier. Gross margins are expected to stay around 75%.

That means investors are not simply asking whether Nvidia can deliver another strong quarter. They are asking whether it can deliver enough upside to justify already-high expectations, especially with bond yields elevated.

Ahead of earnings, these are the five questions that matter most.

1. How big is the beat — and what does Nvidia guide to next?

A strong quarter is already expected, so simply beating forecasts may not be enough.

The bigger question is whether Nvidia can beat by enough and guide strongly enough to keep earnings expectations moving higher.

Investors should focus especially on forward revenue guidance and what Nvidia says about visibility over the next few quarters.

2. Can Nvidia protect margins as costs rise?

Prices of some AI servers using Nvidia chips are reportedly set to rise by more than 15%, partly because memory and other component costs have increased.

The key earnings question is whether Nvidia can pass those costs on while keeping margins around their current high levels.

If margins remain resilient, it would reinforce Nvidia's pricing power. If they start slipping, investors may question whether higher system prices are simply covering higher input costs.

3. Can Nvidia supply enough of its highest-end chips?

Demand is not the main concern. Supply is still critical.

Investors should listen for updates on Blackwell supply, advanced packaging capacity, high-bandwidth memory availability and the ramp towards Rubin.

The question is simple: how quickly can Nvidia turn its huge order book into shipments and revenue?

Better supply could unlock further upside. Persistent bottlenecks could limit how much revenue Nvidia can recognise even when customers are ready to buy.

4. How much financing is needed to keep AI spending going?

AI infrastructure is enormously expensive, and high bond yields make that buildout more costly to fund.

Nvidia is increasingly involved in expanding the financing ecosystem around AI infrastructure, including partnerships with major asset managers and private-capital firms.

That can help sustain the investment cycle, but investors should also watch the risk of circular financing.

Put simply: Nvidia sells the shovels, but is increasingly helping finance the people buying the shovels.

The question for earnings is whether underlying customer economics remain strong enough to support the spending without ever-more-complex financing.

5. Can Nvidia capture more of the AI stack?

Nvidia increasingly wants investors to look beyond the GPU.

It now talks about the entire AI stack: chips, CPUs, networking, systems, CUDA software and the broader developer and cloud ecosystem.

Watch for evidence that customers are buying more of that stack rather than simply buying Nvidia's highest-end chips.

That matters because Nvidia's long-term moat may increasingly come from making its whole platform harder to replace, rather than simply having the fastest GPU.

Strong fundamentals do not guarantee a strong stock reaction

This is the key message heading into the results.

Nvidia could report another outstanding quarter and its shares could still fall.

Markets respond to the gap between expectations and reality, not simply whether a company is growing quickly.

And with Treasury yields close to 5%, investors have a much more attractive alternative to expensive growth stocks than they did during much of the AI rally.

So Nvidia needs to do more than deliver strong fundamentals. It needs to deliver enough upside to keep investors willing to pay a premium for that growth.

Bottom line

For Nvidia’s earnings, watch five things:

The size of the beat. Margins. Chip supply. Financing. The broader Nvidia ecosystem.

The fundamentals may remain extremely strong. But at today's valuations and bond yields, strong fundamentals alone do not guarantee a strong share-price reaction.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Technology Theme Category - Equities Theme - Artificial intelligence NVidia Corp. NVIDIA Corporation Advanced Micro Devices

Commodities Weekly: Weather, war and debt broaden the commodity rally

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:40:00 Z

Key Points:

The rally continues to broaden: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOMTR) gained around 3% this week, lifting its year-to-date return to 30%, with all major sectors except industrial metals contributing.
Scarcity is taking multiple forms: Geopolitical disruption, constrained energy flows, tightening agricultural supply and increasingly volatile weather are combining with concerns about fiscal sustainability and currency debasement.
Agriculture joins the advance: Soft commodities led this week's gains as El Niño risks intensified, while grains were supported by Black Sea export disruptions, weather concerns and rising input costs.
Fiscal concerns strengthen the hard-asset case, but risks remain: The fleeting response to expanded US Treasury bond buybacks highlights investor unease about debt and inflation, although higher real yields, dollar strength, demand destruction and an easing of supply constraints could still challenge the rally.

Commodities rally as scarcity takes multiple forms

Weather, war, fiscal debt concerns and a softer dollar have combined to support another week of broad-based commodity gains, strengthening the impression that the rally is no longer being driven by a handful of isolated supply stories. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index rose around 3.3% this week, lifting its year-to-date return above 30%, while the 12-month gain has reached around 44%. All major sectors except industrial metals traded higher, while at the individual commodity level, platinum, silver, crude oil, diesel and EU gas led the gains.

Earlier commodity rallies were often dominated by one sector, most recently precious metals followed by energy, but the current advance increasingly reflects several independent drivers occurring at the same time. Physical supply constraints, geopolitical fragmentation, weather volatility and concerns about fiscal sustainability are supporting different parts of the commodity complex for different reasons.

Another notable feature is the performance gap between commodity spot prices and total returns. The BCOM Spot Index reflects movements in underlying commodity prices trades up 23% year-to-date, while the BCOMTR also incorporates futures roll returns and the return earned on collateral has gained the mentioned 30.5%. In markets characterised by backwardation, where nearby futures trade above deferred contracts, investors can benefit from positive roll yield as positions are rolled forward.

This helps explain why total commodity returns have been particularly strong. It also underlines an important characteristic of the current environment: tight physical conditions are not only lifting prices but, in several markets, creating curve structures that can enhance returns for futures-based investors or ETFs that track the performance of these futures.

Broad gains seen across most major commodities this past week - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Agriculture joins the scarcity trade

Agriculture has become an increasingly important part of the rally, with soft commodities leading this week's gains while grains have also strengthened. Here, the combination of weather and war is beginning to challenge what had previously been a relatively comfortable global supply outlook.

The weather story centres increasingly on El Niño. The developing event is expected to be unusually strong, raising the risk of disruptive weather patterns across several major agricultural producing regions. Tropical crops are particularly exposed, with coffee production in Southeast Asia, cocoa in West Africa and sugar production across parts of Asia and Brazil all vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and temperature.

The impact is already visible in prices. Sugar has extended a powerful rebound amid concerns about production prospects in India and Thailand, while cocoa and coffee have also strengthened as traders reassess supply risks. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index rose in July to its highest level since January 2023, with cereal prices up 3.4% during the month and sugar rising 5.6%.

The concern extends beyond crop yields. Agriculture is highly energy intensive, and the Middle East conflict has raised costs for diesel, fertiliser, transportation and irrigation. The FAO has warned that the combination of war, expensive agricultural inputs and El Niño could produce another bout of global food inflation later this year.

Sugar and Corn - Source: Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Grains face a different but equally important source of uncertainty. Escalating attacks around the Black Sea are disrupting one of the world's most important agricultural export corridors for wheat and sunflower oil. Ukraine recently cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by as much as 12% following Russian attacks on its seaports, while disruption has also affected Russian export infrastructure.

In addition, Chicago corn futures have risen to an 18-month high after an industry field tour across the US Midwest suggested the corn crop is smaller than previously expected, raising concerns that yield potential may be more limited than forecast. At the same time, the tit-for-tat attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ports and vessels may ultimately force major buyers to seek alternative suppliers, potentially boosting demand and prices in other exporting regions.

The risk is therefore increasingly two-sided: weather threatens production while geopolitical disruption threatens the ability to move available crops to consumers. With energy and fertiliser costs already elevated, the margin for absorbing additional supply shocks is becoming smaller.

Bond market unease adds another dimension

The week's other major development came outside the commodity markets but may ultimately prove equally important for the hard-asset story. The US Treasury surprised markets by announcing that it would at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds, increasing purchases of 10- to 30-year securities to at least USD 4 billion per operation. The announcement came after 30-year Treasury yields had climbed to 5.34%, their highest level since 2007.

Initially, the intervention worked. Long-dated bonds rallied sharply and the yield curve bull-flattened as 30-year yields fell. The dollar weakened and hard assets received another boost.

More interesting, however, was what happened next. The rally quickly faded, with 30-year yields returning towards 5.25% despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently stressing that the administration has a "big toolkit" available to address borrowing costs. The expanded purchases remain modest relative to a Treasury market of more than USD 32 trillion, while total US government debt has now crossed USD 40 trillion.

The Financial Times captured the sceptical market response with one investor describing the initiative as a "band-aid on a bullet hole". The underlying concern is that liquidity operations can address market functioning but do little by themselves to resolve persistent fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditure and the growing supply of government debt.

For commodities, this debate matters because it challenges one of the traditional mechanisms through which commodity rallies eventually extinguish themselves. Normally, higher commodity prices lift inflation, pushing interest rates and real yields higher, strengthening the currency and eventually slowing demand.

Gold has been supported by a weaker dollar but with limited help from elevated real yields - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

The question is whether large government debt burdens make that adjustment increasingly uncomfortable. If policymakers attempt to contain long-term borrowing costs while inflation remains elevated, investors may increasingly seek protection in assets whose supply cannot easily be expanded.

This does not mean monetary or fiscal policy has entered a new regime, but the market reaction this week, especially the strong rally seen across the investment metals and cryptos, suggests investors are at least asking the question. The renewed weakness in the dollar, down 1% on the week but still within the range seen during the past year, has added another tailwind, given that most internationally traded commodities are priced in US dollars.

Different commodities, common denominator

Energy remains an obvious source of physical stress as the conflict with Iran continues to disrupt Middle Eastern flows and keep refined-product markets exceptionally tight. Precious metals, meanwhile, continue to attract demand amid fiscal concerns and dollar weakness. Both themes have been covered extensively in our recent updates: When bond markets need support, hard assets start to look harder, Calm crude, tightening diesel: the real oil market stress is downstream, Copper versus gold: what an old macro signal is telling us now, and Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields.

What is more notable this week is how those forces are spreading across the broader commodity complex. Agriculture is responding to weather, war and higher input costs. Precious metals are responding increasingly to fiscal and currency concerns. Energy remains supported by geopolitical disruption and constrained product availability, while industrial metals continue to face longer-term supply challenges despite some near-term relief.

Gold has broken key technical resistance levels - Source: Saxo

Copper provides a useful reminder that the story is not universally bullish. London Metal Exchange inventories are heading for their largest weekly increase since 2020 as traders deliver metal against elevated prices following months of tightness. The response demonstrates how higher prices can attract supply and eventually ease scarcity. Prices nevertheless rallied once again ahead of the weekend after China, the world's top consumer of the metal, introduced a new dose of fiscal support for the economy during one of its weakest periods in years driven by sluggish domestic demand and private spending. Measures that may support demand for commodities, including copper.

Higher prices can destroy demand, encourage substitution and accelerate new supply. A meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East or Black Sea could remove geopolitical risk premiums from energy and grains. El Niño-related concerns may ultimately prove less damaging than currently feared, while a credible US fiscal consolidation programme could reduce long-term yields, stabilise the dollar and weaken demand for hard assets.

Equally, a sharp global economic slowdown would challenge industrial commodities and energy, while persistent inflation could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Higher real yields and renewed dollar strength would be particularly important headwinds for precious metals and potentially the wider commodity complex.

For now, however, the defining feature remains breadth. The commodity rally is increasingly being supported by several independent forms of scarcity occurring simultaneously: constrained physical supply, geopolitical disruption, weather uncertainty and growing concern about the purchasing power of financial assets.

That does not guarantee prices will continue higher at the recent pace, and after a 30% year-to-date total return, the risk of corrections and profit-taking has clearly increased. But compared with earlier in the year, when performance depended heavily on a few individual markets, the current rally has developed a much broader foundation.

In a world where weather, war and debt are increasingly challenging assumptions about abundant supply and stable purchasing power, it is our opinion that commodities are once again demonstrating their distinct role within diversified portfolios, and we maintain our long-held bullish view on the sector, with some of the risks to this view mentioned above.

This reflects a market perspective, not a recommendation. Consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

Related articles/content
20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder 18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now 17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields 17 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 11 August 2026 Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder
18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now
17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields
17 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 11 August 2026

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and Substack

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Agriculture Gold Silver Copper Corn Wheat Sugar

Bessent panics, gold and crypto rip, equity technicals pivotal.

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:40:00 Z

Market looking for non-fiat stores of value.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Market Quick Take - Treasury yields rise and Walmart slides as Jackson Hole comes into view - 21 August 2026

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A renewed rise in bond yields and frozen Iran talks kept markets cautious before next week's Jackson Hole
Equities: US and European stocks fell as yields and oil rose, Asian markets started mixed as investors reassessed the AI trade.
Digital Assets: Crypto proxies extended their breakout on strong fund demand and continued short covering
Commodities: Weather, war and debt drive weekly commodity gains
Fixed Income: US 10-year yield rebounds to where it was before the recent Treasury buyback announcement, even as US Treasury Secretary comes out with further attempts to support the market.
Currencies: USD remains weak, JPY also weak but found support early Friday.

Macro

Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.9% in July 2026 from 1.6% in June, the highest since December 2025, driven by smaller declines in electricity prices after subsidy cuts and higher costs for food and other services. Core inflation increased to 1.8%, its highest since March, but remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the sixth straight month. Besides Japan, inflation pressures are broadening after Germany's producer prices climbed 3.0% year-on-year, the fastest since April 2023, and Australian consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9%.
US bond yields rose again on Thursday, apparently prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to appear in a hastily scheduled TV interview on CNBC, seemingly put together for damage control after widespread commentary that Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement is a drop in the US Treasury market ocean. Bessent said that the administration will unveil a new fiscal initiative aimed at tackling the highest borrowing costs in years. He also clarified that, in addition to Treasury plans to at least double the size of buybacks for longer-dated securities to support orderly trading in what Bessent described as a “thin” summer market, the operations could exceed the USD 4 billion currently planned to start next month, adding that the administration has a “big toolkit” to bring bond yields down.
US-Iran diplomacy is in stalemate. President Trump reportedly told his team a deal with Iran is unlikely and ordered talks frozen for several weeks, while Iranian adviser Rezaei suggested Tehran's best response to economic pressure would be to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Houthi forces are reported to be preparing a new phase of escalation against Saudi Arabia, and Trump's threat of economic warfare against Iran pushed crude to a near four-week high.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Sweden Jul. Unemployment Rate
0600 – UK Jul. Retail Sales
0715 – France Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
1345 – US S&P Global Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
1400 – Eurozone Aug. Flash Consumer Confidence

Earnings events

Next week:

Tuesday: Intuit, Zoom Communications
Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, the Dow dropped 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.7%, extending its decline to five sessions as higher oil prices and Treasury yields pressured stocks. Walmart suffered its steepest fall since 2022 after US comparable sales grew at the slowest pace in six years and guidance disappointed, while Moderna plunged 23.6% after its extraordinary rally a day earlier and Apple fell 1.8%. After hours, Ross Stores jumped 7.9% as strong customer traffic helped the retailer raise its full-year earnings forecast.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, extending its losing streak to seven sessions, while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.4% and the FTSE 100 finished broadly flat as higher energy prices and bond yields kept sentiment cautious. LVMH fell 2.8% as luxury stocks weakened, while JD Sports plunged 14.3% after cutting its profit outlook following softer North American sales. Swedish steelmaker SSAB dropped 9% amid concerns over lower trade barriers for Canadian steel, while industrial names Sandvik and Epiroc gained 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively.
Asia: South Korea’s Kospi opened 1.4% lower as investors remained cautious around the recent rotation away from crowded AI trades, despite expectations of a major shareholder return plan from Samsung Electronics. Alibaba remained in focus after quarterly profit fell 75% as heavy artificial intelligence spending offset 9% revenue growth, although cloud revenue rose 45%; its US-listed shares recovered from an early 5% drop to finish higher. NetEase fell 5.6% in US trading after missing earnings expectations, while investors also awaited Samsung’s board meeting and the Hang Seng Index’s quarterly rebalance.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The crypto complex extended its breakout for a third session early Friday, with the original spark coming from the US Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday as crypto is seen as a safe haven from US Treasury debt instability and any liquidity measures that might be employed to address it. Bitcoin rose another USD 2,500 early Friday, taking the total three-day advance to over 16%. The listed crypto proxies again outpaced spot on Thursday as short covering and fund demand carried over. Marathon gained 15.54%, Cipher 8.31%, Riot 8.26%, Strategy 7.81% and Coinbase 7.58%, while Deribit’s DVOL rose 2.84% to 40.56.
Spot bitcoin funds took in USD 517 million Thursday, the most since early May, and ether products USD 189 million, while the CBOE seeks approval for the first US triple-leveraged bitcoin and ether ETFs.

Commodities

Weather, war, fiscal debt concerns, and a softer dollar all supporting broad-based commodity gains this week, with the BCOM TR index rising around 3%, lifting its YTD return to 30%. All sectors except industrial metals traded higher, led by soft commodities with gains of around 5%, followed by precious metals and energy, also near 5%, while grains trailed with a roughly 3% advance. At the individual commodity level, platinum, silver, crude oil, diesel, sugar and cocoa all recorded gains of more than 5%, highlighting the increasingly broad nature of the current rally.
Oil: Brent rose to its highest level in almost four weeks near USD 95 after President Trump threatened Iran with economic warfare, before paring the advance to trade near USD 93.5, with WTI around USD 86.4. The US administration is expected to provide details on Monday about how it intends to further isolate Iran’s economy, with traders concerned that tougher measures could trigger significant blowback from China, a key trading partner and buyer of Iranian oil. With the Middle East crisis showing few signs of easing, the risk of further disruption to regional energy flows continues to support crude and refined product prices.
Gold: Thursday’s setback, triggered partly by rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, proved temporary, with gold surging again as long-end Treasury yields climbed following a Bessent interview that failed to quell investor concerns about spiralling US debt and fiscal sustainability. The ability of gold to rally alongside higher nominal yields highlights the growing importance of fiscal and debt concerns as a driver of hard-asset demand. Gold is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and could potentially secure a weekly close above its 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,514, strengthening the technical recovery following its recent correction.
Copper: The transition metal trades softer on the week as LME inventories head for their biggest weekly inflow since 2020, with traders delivering metal to profit from the recent supply squeeze. Despite the immediate relief, nearby spreads remain elevated and the market vulnerable after months of inventory outflows, much of it diverted to the US ahead of a potential tariff announcement. Underlying physical supply therefore remains tight, supporting the broader bullish outlook.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields lifted again Thursday, rebounding from the drop inspired by the US Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday. The benchmark US 10-year yield recovered all its lost ground, trading near 4.70% and thus near the levels trading before the Treasury announcement and just below the cycle high of 4.75% that has held back Treasury sellers for several weeks. The benchmark 30-year yield traded 5.25% early Friday, about mid-range from the cycle top above 5.33% and the post-buyback announcement low of 5.18%. At the front end of the curve, volatility was lower as the benchmark 2-year yield traded slightly higher but still below the week’s high just above 4.20%.
Japan’s government bond yields rebounded late Thursday from their intraday lows and rose further at the long end of the yield curve on Friday, but the benchmark 10-year JGB yield only traded two basis points higher to 2.88% and is below the halfway point of this week’s trading range, suggesting no immediate panic on the rebound in US Treasury yields.

Currencies

The US dollar remained weak Thursday and early Friday, but the Japanese yen also weakened as US Treasury yields rebounded quickly despite Wednesday’s US Treasury buyback announcement, suggesting that the market is also worried about the debt dynamics in the Japanese government bond market. USDJPY rebounded as high as 159.13 early Friday before firming into early European trading hours, back below 158.90, while EURUSD was steady near 1.1700.
Sweden’s Riksbank didn’t sound any urgent notes on the need to hike its 1.75% policy rate at its meeting on Thursday, saying merely that the “probability of a rate increase later this year remains” as it said the forward economic picture is not clearcut and its overall outlook for the Swedish economy remains unchanged. This sent Sweden’s short-term yields lower as the market pushed expectations for a possible rate hike further over the horizon. This sent EURSEK from the 11.00 area to nearly 11.09 at one point on Thursday. Key range resistance in that important exchange rate for SEK is just above 11.11, the highest level since August 2025.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

AI beyond tech: What Q2 earnings told investors about the widening AI trade

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 02:30:00 Z

Key points:

AI is becoming a broader capital-spending cycle. Data centres require heavy equipment, electricity generation, grid infrastructure, cooling, real estate and significant external financing.
The evidence is increasingly visible in company results. GE Vernova disclosed more than $5 billion of data-centre orders in the first half, Eaton reported data-centre revenue growth of around 65%, while Digital Realty and Trane showed strong growth in leasing and commercial HVAC demand.
Broader sector exposure does not necessarily mean broader risk diversification. These companies operate in different industries, but much of the incremental demand ultimately depends on continued spending by hyperscalers.

For much of the last few years, investing in artificial intelligence has largely meant technology: Nvidia, semiconductors, memory, networking and the hyperscalers themselves.

That definition is becoming too narrow.

An AI data centre does not run on GPUs alone. It must be constructed, connected to the grid, cooled, backed by reliable power and financed. Increasingly, those requirements are showing up in the earnings of companies that would not traditionally be considered AI stocks.

Deere and Caterpillar: Data centres require heavy equipment and construction

Deere's latest Construction & Forestry sales rose 18% year-on-year, helped partly by US infrastructure spending and AI data-centre construction.

Caterpillar showed a similar trend. Its Construction Industries sales rose 35%, while Energy & Transportation sales increased 17%. Sales of large generator sets and turbines to end users rose sharply, with management highlighting data-centre demand as an important driver.

Investor perspective: In our view, these results show that AI infrastructure spending is becoming large enough to influence traditional industrial companies. But neither Deere nor Caterpillar is a pure AI exposure: agriculture, mining, construction and the broader economic cycle remain important earnings drivers.

GE Vernova and Dominion Energy: AI growth is increasing electricity demand

The expansion of AI infrastructure is also becoming a power-generation and grid story.

GE Vernova reported more than $5 billion of data-centre orders in the first half of 2026, already more than double its data-centre orders for the whole of 2025. Overall Q2 orders rose 88% organically.

Dominion Energy provides the demand-side evidence. Its Virginia business operates in one of the world's largest data-centre markets, and Q2 adjusted operating earnings in the segment rose 22% to $670 million, with growing data-centre demand contributing to electricity-load growth.

Investor perspective: We think power availability is becoming one of the key constraints on further AI infrastructure growth. That can support demand for generation, transmission and utility investment. The counterpoint is that supplying this growth requires heavy capital expenditure, while regulation and financing costs influence how much ultimately translates into shareholder returns.

Eaton and Trane Tech: Higher computing density requires more electrical and cooling infrastructure

Once electricity reaches the data centre, it has to be distributed reliably across increasingly power-intensive servers. Those servers also produce substantial amounts of heat.

Eaton reported data-centre revenue growth of around 65% year-on-year and data-centre order growth of roughly 85% in Q2. Its equipment includes switchgear, breakers and power-distribution systems used inside data centres.

Trane Technologies' Americas Commercial HVAC bookings rose 50%, while applied-equipment bookings increased by around 130%. Total backlog reached $12.1 billion, up 70%. Trane does not disclose a standalone AI revenue figure, but data-centre cooling is an important contributor to commercial demand.

Investor perspective: The results suggest some of the less visible infrastructure around AI — power management and cooling in particular — is becoming increasingly material. The risk is that strong growth expectations may already be reflected in valuations, while order growth remains dependent on continued data-centre construction.

Digital Realty and Blackstone: Data-centre demand is supporting real estate and infrastructure assets

AI spending is also flowing into the physical real estate required to house computing capacity.

Digital Realty's Q2 revenue rose 29% year-on-year. It signed $307 million of annualised new bookings, ended the quarter with a record $1.9 billion leasing backlog, and reported 25.4% cash rental-rate growth on renewals.

Blackstone provides a private-markets example. The firm said nine of its ten largest appreciating investments in Q2 were AI-related, including exposure through its QTS data-centre platform and other digital-infrastructure assets.

Investor perspective: These results suggest strong demand for locations where both computing capacity and sufficient electricity can be secured. However, data-centre real estate is highly capital intensive and remains sensitive to financing costs, power availability and assumptions around long-term utilisation.

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America: The AI buildout requires large amounts of financing

The scale of data-centre investment also means the AI cycle is becoming increasingly relevant for banks and capital markets.

Goldman Sachs' Q2 investment-banking fees rose 55% to $3.4 billion, although the bank does not separately disclose how much came from AI-related transactions.

Bank of America has said it has helped AI-related companies raise nearly $500 billion since 2025 across debt and equity markets.

The financing opportunity extends across loans, bond issuance, equity raising, structured finance and advisory work as companies fund data centres, GPUs, power generation and supporting infrastructure.

Investor perspective: In our view, AI is evolving into a capital-markets theme as well as an equity-market theme. But the earnings linkage for banks is less direct than for equipment suppliers because profitability still depends heavily on rates, credit quality, trading activity and the broader dealmaking environment.

What earnings are telling investors

The factual evidence suggests that AI spending is already reaching much further into the economy.

In our view, this marks an important evolution of the AI investment story: from a relatively narrow technology theme towards a broader capital-expenditure cycle.

That said, broader sector exposure does not automatically mean broader risk diversification. Deere, Eaton, Digital Realty and Goldman Sachs may look very different, but part of their incremental growth increasingly traces back to the same source: hyperscalers continuing to spend heavily on AI.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Technology Theme Category - Commodities Commodities Theme Category - Equities Theme - Artificial intelligence Energy (Sector) Theme - Clean energy Theme - Construction Construction