Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Changes in speculative positions held by funds across 24 commodity futures during the week to August 27. Hedge fund selling continued with precious and platinum group metals being the noticeable exception. Hardest hit were WTI crude oil, HG Copper, corn and sugar. Net-short positions are currently held in most agriculture commodities
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Speculators kept up the selling pressure on commodities during the week to August 27. The combined long across the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this dropped by 55% to just 86,300 lots, the lowest since January 2016.
Selling was broad-based with precious and platinum group metals being the noticeable exception. Hardest hit were WTI crude oil, HG Copper, corn and sugar. Net-short positions are currently held in all agriculture commodities except for cattle and hogs.
The net-long in gold notched higher by 1% to reach a record 287,850 lots. Interestingly the gross-short rose by the most in six weeks, potentially driven by spread trades against silver as it broke above $17.50. Platinum saw strong buying with traders taking a closer look at its record discount to gold. HG copper meanwhile attracted renewed selling with the ongoing and escalated trade war sapping the outlook for demand.
WTI crude oil was sold following the Chinese announcement that a 5% tariff would be added to import of US crude oil from September 1. The news resulted in longs being cut while fresh shorts were added. Brent longs meanwhile saw a small 2% increase with both long and short sellers increasing exposure.
Hedge funds continued to increase bearish bets on agriculture commodities with net-short positions seen in all grain and soft commodities. This as the trade war, ample supply and now also the stronger dollar continue to take its toll on the sector.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
