Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Here I clarify my take on the recent US 2-10 yield curve inversion - actually an inferior measure of the yield curve - and what this means for the risk of an incoming recession as well as the weighted risk for the market path from here.
More on the yield curve inversion, recession risk and market path from here
My piece yesterday generated welcome feedback and more than a few misunderstandings on what I was trying to communicate. For the last of these, I apologize and hope that this piece does a better job of clarifying my position on the yield curve inversion we are seeing and the weighted risk of market outcomes depending on whether that inversion is predicting a recession.
Let me stress:
I am not predicting a 25% collapse – actually if a recession occurs I think the downside risk could be worse. What I am saying is that, of the potential paths from here we have a more than 50% risk of a US recession and more than 80% of a Europe one. In risk-weighted terms, that means a weighted risk of -7.5% is the relatively complacent base case scenario for equities from here (50% probability of a recession scenario and -25% drawdown that brings or 50% probability of +10% rally in a no-recession scenario).
My predictions have zero predictive value, but I believe Saxo Bank’s Economic Model is 70% reliable in catching turns in the economy and here our credit impulse has forewarned on recession with its usual nine month lead, which has been our main macro theme in the Quarterly Outlooks and my communication. When economic growth goes into recession risk appetite shifts because of increased velocity of moves and impacts on risk metrics, as well as due to psychology.
So the main points:
Please spend five minutes understanding the dynamics from these two charts courtesy of WSJ.COM’s The Daily Shot and directly from Oxford Economics & Piper Jaffray.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
