The G-10 rundown
USD – the USD has backed off recent highs, but it isn’t exactly a rout for the moment outside of the impressive reversal in EURUSD. We’ll hopefully be able to draw a bead on the USD’s direction after tomorrow’s Powell speech, but we think the USD shorts are looking for too much from him for now.
EUR- the euro has achieved too much upside relative to the news flow – still, a change of tune from Powell could still drive further gains, but a sustainable rally needs more from Europe specifically to support.
JPY – the USDJPY rally confounds the idea that the USD is under broad pressure. A strong close for the week on any rebound in US rates post-Powell speech tomorrow could set up another direction change and new move back higher. Some combination of a weak US economy, signs of Fed changing directions back toward easing and ugly risk off needed to sustain any pressure to the downside in USDJPY.
GBP – sterling eyeing 0.9000 nervously again and hard to see what holds the pair down unless EU existential woes flare again – awaiting confirmation that probability of no-deal Brexit is seen rising.
CHF – the EURCHF bounce running into some resistance and looks correlated with EURUSD at the moment. Technically, the pair would need to move all the way above 1.1450-1.1500 to suggest a reversal – that looks too ambitious for now.
AUD - not sure whether the political turmoil has legs as a driver – more about USD direction, commodity prices and whether China abandons CNY floor for the Aussie.
CAD – a relative winner in the commodity space on the rebound in oil and the southern exposure to US’ booming economy. The 1.3000 level in USDCAD has been an awfully tough nut to crack, however.
NZD – kiwi trading mostly as an anti-Aussie at the moment. Let’s see whether Australian politics can keep AUDNZD below 1.1000. Meanwhile, NZDUSD has worked up into the interesting upside pivot area above 0.6700 recently ahead of the key USD event risk of the week.
SEK – election incoming with SEK looking very cheap relative to the EUR – downside options structures seem the only way to trade this as nothing technical to suggest a near term ceiling is in just yet for EURSEK.
NOK – EURNOK toppish unless we lurch back into full USD strength and global risk contagion, which is still an appreciable risk.