Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
(Editor's note: this is an update of yesterday's piece featuring technical analysis of the S&P 500 index.)
The S&P 500 is currently pushing higher in an effort to close at all-time highs. The RSI is testing the upper trendline in its falling channel.
If we get a positive close today the possible double-top scenario previously mentioned is cancelled. On the other hand, there is a high likelihood of even higher highs both in the next few days but also looking a bit ahead (i.e. the next two to three weeks)... at that point we could test 2,900.
Then you will hear all the stories in the media about the S&P 500 closing in on 3,000.
However, there is still massive divergence. Strength is not displaying higher levels on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Volume is currently falling too, indicating fewer buyers are pushing prices higher; in other words, the uptrend is fragile but a new high is likely before a minor correction (a few more days of uptrend).
The only technical indicator currently supporting the uptrend is Bollinger band expansion.
As previously mentioned, as long as the S&P 500 stays above support at 2,800 we could see a couple of more weeks of bullishness going into September and October. September is usually where investors clean house in preparation for year-end. October can be jinx month, meaning it's usually quite volatile... but let’s discuss that when we get closer to the date.
A negative close today could give a short-term minor correction before another attempt at higher highs.
You can ride the trend, but be cautious. Remember: Divergence, or imbalances in the financial markets, can go on for quite some time. These are just warning signs. Look out for signs indicating a top and reversal.