Keep an eye on CNY
Turkish assets and the TRY are stabilising but the Chinese yuan is again climbing towards the key 7.00 area, placing the Sino-US trade war and general EM concerns in focus.
The market got a bit ahead of itself in positioning for further strength in the euro and weakness in the US dollar in Q2. But after the enormous correction and USD rally, we look for the USD to find a top in the second half of the year and to begin heading lower again. The world can’t afford a strong dollar and once the Trump tax and fiscal stimulus fades, the US will have a hard time finding the USD buyers to offset it enormous external imbalances.
Saxo Bank's Quarterly Outlook for Q2 is here, with expert insights and trading themes from our team of strategists. Get your copy here.