The G-10 rundown
USD – the greenback got close to the edge yesterday before stepping away, not yet willing to go over. So we still have no bead on where the big dollar wants to go at the moment, with few inputs until the next round of first-of-the-month economic data the week after next.
EUR – a very weak ZEW expectations survey yesterday a big red flag on the status of the EU recovery, but EU deceleration has been a story for some time and hasn’t done much to weigh on euro speculative positioning or strength. Yesterday, EURUSD failed to clear the tactically bullish bar by shying away from a close above 1.2400. Wait and see has been the name of the game for over two months there.
JPY – USDJPY staggering around in a narrow range, refusing to make a statement. We’re interested in finding a level to sell, but don’t know whether to wait for 109.00 or thereabouts or for a solid stab lower below 107.00 to indicate that the consolidation is ending here. Strong risk appetite making life difficult for bears.
GBP – the sterling rally very much still in play despite yesterday’s reluctance to gun for higher levels, so it will be down to today’s UK inflation data on whether there is more in the rally tank for sterling;– we prefer the EURGBP lower trade if so.
CHF – EURCHF at 1.2000 the first test of how much fuel is left in the tank here, as is the resolution one way or another of the USD outlook to determine if USDCHF gets more focus on its recovery. This is clearly flow-driven.
AUD – the Aussie keeping us guessing, with the descending wedge-like formation in AUDUSD and that pair’s inability to develop downside momentum on multiple new lows pointing to a squeeze, though said squeeze has so far underwhelmed… and the 200-day moving average has not yet been cleared.
CAD – the Bank of Canada today has us all guessing. Inflation data out of Canada points to the need to continue to signal rate hikes, but the most recent BoC shift was to the cautious side on trade concerns, and those have largely eased recently while oil prices have ramped higher.
NZD – NZD strength faltering a bit as Adrian Orr takes the helm at the RBNZ and his first interview didn’t involve prognostication on the economy, but was instead more about the style he intended to bring (openness and communication to the general public). NZ rates are a tad lower and AUDNZD is showing a bit of mischief in rallying here.
SEK – The latest aggravated move lower in EURSEK is the kind of move one often sees at the end of a trend, but that trend ending, or at least pausing, will likely depend more on overextended positioning rather than supportive developments for SEK.
NOK – EURNOK lulling traders to sleep again – we generally prefer resolution lower, but not sure where to find the catalyst.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
• 0800 – South Africa Mar. CPI
• 0830 – UK Mar. CPI / RPI / PPI
• 0900 – Eurozone Feb. Construction Output
• 0900 – Eurozone final Mar. CPI
• 1400 – Canada Bank of Canada Meeting
• 1430 – US Weekly DoE Oil and Product Inventories
• 1800 – US Fed Beige Book
• 1915 – US Fed’s Dudley (FOMC) to speak
• 2015 – US Fed’s Quarles (FOMC Voter) to speak