One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows</h1> <article> <h1>One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 10:01:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong><span>One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows</span></strong></h1> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why Spreading Risk Across Multiple Asset Types Can Matter for Investors</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For many investors, investing often starts with a single product type. We tend to invest in things we already know, and for many people, that will be stocks. That’s a natural place to begin. But over time, market ups and downs can highlight an important question: <em>What happens when everything you own moves in the same direction at the same time?</em></span></p> <p><span>One way investors try to manage this challenge is by spreading risk across multiple asset types. This concept is often referred to as <strong>multi-asset or multi-product investing</strong>. </span><span >Recent data from </span><strong >Saxo’s own client base</strong><span > offers useful insight into how this approach has played out in practice.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What Saxo’s Client Data Shows</span></strong></h3> <p><span>You have most likely already heard about diversification and the importance of a diversified portfolio, so let’s compare the performance of single-asset vs. multi-asset portfolios. Looking at <strong>five years of data from Saxo’s clients</strong>, a clear pattern emerges:<br /> <strong>Clients who invested across multiple product types tended, on average, to experience more stable and often stronger outcomes than those who focused on a single product type.<br /> </strong></span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span >In this context:<br /> </span> <ul> <li><span><strong>Single-product investors</strong></span> are clients who invest in just one type of product within their portfolio (for example, only stocks).</li> <li><span><strong>Multi-product investors</strong>, also referred to as multi-asset investors,</span> are clients who invest across multiple product types (for example, a combination of stocks, ETFs, or other instruments).</li> </ul> <p>Performance is measured as <span><strong>profit or loss over the year relative to the investor’s average total assets</strong></span><strong>,</strong> providing a consistent basis for comparison.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>A Smoother Ride Through Different Market Conditions</strong></span></h3> <p>The differences become particularly visible during challenging market periods. <span>In 2022, markets were difficult across the globe. </span><span>Saxo’s data shows that:</span></p> <ul> <li>Single-asset investors experienced a deeper average decline.</li> <li>Multi-asset investors also faced losses, but <span><strong>the drawdown was meaningfully smaller</strong></span><strong>.</strong></li> </ul> <p>This highlights an important point for less experienced investors:<br /> when markets fall sharply, having exposure to more than one type of asset can help <span><strong>reduce the impact of extreme movements</strong></span><strong>.</strong></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Participation When Markets Recover</strong></span></h3> <p>In more positive market years, the data shows that multi-asset investors did not “miss out” on recovery phases.</p> <ul> <li>In 2023, 2024, and 2025, multi-product investors, on average, achieved <span><strong>higher annual performance figures</strong></span> than single-product investors.</li> <li>This suggests that diversification doesn’t necessarily mean giving up growth. A diversified portfolio can still allow participation when markets move upward, while helping manage downside risk.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Why This Matters for Investors</strong></span></h3> <p>For investors who are not monitoring markets every day or adjusting positions frequently, diversification can play an important role in risk management rather than return maximisation.</p> <p>Based on Saxo’s client data, spreading investments across different product types may help:</p> <ul> <li>Reduce the severity of losses in difficult market environments</li> <li>Smooth overall portfolio performance from year to year</li> <li>Lower the emotional stress that can come from large swings in portfolio value</li> </ul> <p>This can be especially relevant for retail investors with limited market experience, where sharp losses may lead to emotional decision-making at the wrong time.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>What multi-asset investing is - and isn’t</strong></span></h3> <p>It’s important to be clear about what this data does <em>not</em> imply.</p> <ul> <li>Diversification does <span><strong>not</strong></span> eliminate risk</li> <li>Losses can still occur, even in diversified portfolios</li> <li>Past outcomes do not guarantee future results</li> </ul> <p>What the data does show is that, historically, <span><strong>Saxo clients who spread their investments across multiple product types tended to experience more resilient outcomes over time,</strong></span> compared to those concentrated in a single product.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>In Summary</strong></span></h3> <p>Saxo’s client data over the past five years suggests that:</p> <ul> <li>Investing across multiple product types has historically been associated with <span><strong>more stable and often stronger outcomes</strong></span></li> <li>Diversification may help soften the impact of difficult market years</li> <li>A multi-asset approach can support long-term investing by managing risk rather than relying on a single market outcome</li> </ul> <p>For retail investors, understanding how different assets behave — and why spreading risk can matter — is a key step toward building confidence in navigating financial markets.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span> <span>Stocks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 4 May 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 04 May 2026 16:49:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 4 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Markets navigated a dense mix of earnings, central bank decisions, and geopolitical tension, with oil acting as the dominant macro driver throughout the week.</em></p> <p>US equities oscillated early before finishing the week firmly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,230 by 1 May, as strong Big Tech earnings – led by Alphabet’s 10% surge – offset macro headwinds from surging oil prices and Meta’s capex-driven 8.6% decline. The VIX moved between 16.99 and 18.81, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions, while options flow shifted from early-week defensive positioning toward selective accumulation across energy, metals, and individual earnings names.</p> <p>By week’s end, sentiment stabilised as earnings delivered and oil briefly eased, but underlying uncertainty remains tied to energy markets and policy direction.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>Earnings resilience offsets macro noise, but leadership remains narrow.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US – earnings resilience offsets macro noise:</strong> US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong, with the S&P 500 moving from 7,138 (28 April) to 7,209 (30 April) and 7,230 (1 May). Big Tech dominated: Alphabet surged 10.0% (30 April) on cloud strength, while Meta dropped 8.6% (30 April) on capex concerns. Nvidia’s earlier record high (27 April) highlighted continued AI momentum, though sentiment briefly softened mid-week.</li> <li><strong>Europe & Asia – energy pressure vs selective strength:</strong> European equities struggled mid-week as oil surged and rate-hike expectations resurfaced, before rebounding into month-end. Local markets showed dispersion, with healthcare and industrials mixed, while Asia remained led by Korea’s AI-driven rally and more uneven performance in China and Japan.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Earnings remain supportive, but leadership is narrow and sensitive to macro inputs.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Focus shifts from Big Tech to consumer-facing earnings and macro validation. US earnings from Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will test demand resilience, while the US jobs report will determine whether strong growth can sustain current equity levels.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>Event risk priced, but not feared.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>VIX range – controlled conditions:</strong> Volatility remained contained despite heavy catalysts. The VIX moved between 18.02 (27 April), 17.83 (28 April), and peaked at 18.81 (29 April) before easing to 16.99 (1 May). Short-term measures spiked around key events but quickly normalised, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions.</li> <li><strong>Implied moves and skew:</strong> Options pricing implied weekly moves around ±1.0–1.35%, while skew shifted between neutral and defensive, ending the week with a downside bias.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Volatility is stable, but hedging demand remains persistent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>The April US jobs report and ongoing oil developments are the next volatility catalysts. Any upside surprise in inflation or labour strength could push implied volatility higher again, particularly in short-dated options.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Selective upside returns, but hedging remains embedded.</em></p> <p>The options market shifted from early-week protection toward more selective accumulation, though conviction never fully broadened. Initial positioning was defensive, with index hedging and sector-level protection dominating, particularly in financials and metals.</p> <p>That stance evolved into a more balanced setup, with investors expressing views through income strategies, volatility trades, and paired hedges. Energy and metals both transitioned toward cautiously bullish positioning, while equities showed selective upside participation alongside continued protection.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors leaned into upside selectively, but maintained protection as conviction remained narrow.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>Options flow will likely remain dispersion-driven, with investors targeting individual earnings names rather than broad index exposure. Watch for increased short-dated activity around consumer earnings and macro releases.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Stable price action, selective institutional flows.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum:</strong> Crypto markets tracked macro sentiment but showed resilience. Bitcoin traded between USD 75,700 and USD 80,000, while Ethereum held near USD 2,200–2,380. ETF flows were mixed mid-week before turning positive into Friday, reflecting improving sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Options and altcoins:</strong> Options activity remained balanced, combining downside hedging with selective upside positioning, while altcoins followed broader risk trends.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Crypto is constructive, but still dependent on macro direction and liquidity.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>ETF flows and macro data will remain key drivers. A stable or softer rates outlook could support further upside, while renewed volatility in equities or yields may quickly feed into crypto positioning.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Yields rise on oil, then stabilise.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries:</strong> Bond markets reflected the week’s macro tension. US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.43% mid-week on oil-driven inflation concerns, while the 2-year approached 3.95%. By Friday, yields eased slightly as oil corrected and policy expectations stabilised.</li> <li><strong>European bonds:</strong> European yields followed a similar pattern, rising sharply before pulling back into month-end.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Rates are increasingly driven by energy-linked inflation rather than growth expectations.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>The US jobs report and Treasury issuance will shape rate expectations. Strong data could reinforce higher-for-longer narratives, while weaker prints may ease pressure on the front end.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Oil dominates, reshaping the macro backdrop.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Oil – Strait of Hormuz driver:</strong> Oil remained the central driver, with Brent rising toward wartime highs before easing slightly. The Strait of Hormuz disruption tightened supply and drove inflation concerns across markets.</li> <li><strong>Gold and broader commodities:</strong> Gold initially weakened under rising yields but later stabilised as geopolitical risks intensified. Broader commodities posted strong gains in April, led by energy.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Oil continues to dictate inflation expectations and cross-asset behaviour.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>Any progress on reopening shipping routes will be the key swing factor. A resolution could trigger a sharp pullback in oil and ease inflation fears, while continued disruption would keep upward pressure on prices.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Yen volatility and USD strength define the week.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>USDJPY – intervention risk:</strong> FX markets were dominated by yen volatility and a firm US dollar. USDJPY surged above 160 before dropping sharply below 156 on intervention threats, highlighting extreme positioning.</li> <li><strong>USD and commodity currencies:</strong> The dollar strengthened mid-week on yields and oil before stabilising, while commodity-linked currencies remained supported.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX is highly reactive to policy divergence and energy dynamics.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Yen intervention risk remains elevated, while US data will guide USD direction. Commodity currencies will continue to track oil, making energy markets a key FX driver.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> Earnings support holds, but leadership remains narrow.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Contained, with persistent demand for hedging.</li> <li><strong>Options:</strong> Selective upside with protection still embedded.</li> <li><strong>Digital assets:</strong> Stable, supported by ETF flows and macro tone.</li> <li><strong>Fixed income:</strong> Yields driven by oil and inflation expectations.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil remains the dominant macro force.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> Yen volatility and USD direction in focus.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 4 to 8 May 2026</strong></h2> <p>The coming week arrives with oil still elevated, yen intervention risk unresolved, and equities trading near recent highs on the back of narrow earnings-driven leadership. Macro conditions remain fragile beneath the surface, and the data calendar is dense enough to test whether the current equity resilience is justified.</p> <p>Consumer-facing earnings take centre stage. Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will collectively test whether demand at the consumer level is holding, or beginning to soften under the weight of elevated energy prices and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the April US jobs report represents the defining macro input of the week – a strong reading would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure the front end of the Treasury curve, while any softness could ease rate anxiety and support risk assets broadly.</p> <p>Oil remains the wild card. Any signal of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes could trigger a sharp reversal in crude, easing inflation fears across fixed income and FX simultaneously. Conversely, continued disruption keeps cross-asset volatility elevated and hedging demand intact.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 4 May – Strait of Hormuz supply developments; options flow into consumer earnings week begins<br /> Tue 5 May – Airbnb Q1 2026 earnings (after close)<br /> Wed 6 May – Walt Disney Q2 2026 earnings (after close); US Treasury auction<br /> Thu 7 May – McDonald’s Q1 2026 earnings; US weekly jobless claims<br /> Fri 8 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary) </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>Markets ended the week resilient, supported by earnings and selective risk-taking, but underlying conditions remain fragile. Oil-driven inflation, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical risk continue to shape cross-asset behaviour.</p> <p>The coming week’s labour and consumer data will be critical in determining whether markets can extend gains or face renewed macro pressure.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <p><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---27-april-2026-27042026" data-id="CE1A5B395C7B4B97B52389A667D495BE" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 27 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---20-april-2026-20042026" data-id="FACE8A0ACDFB4687884796240BBBD19D" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 20 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---13-april-2026-14042026" data-id="535D89B8B0CA4EFC9425001EB6A5B315" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7b75863BC9-CB56-4539-999B-26E7A8A9EE95%7d%40en-SG" data-id="75863BC9CB564539999B26E7A8A9EE95" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 7 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---23-march-2026-23032026" data-id="5DD5AF409C1C460F8A1189D68E404569" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 23 March 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-march-2026-16032026" data-id="93B2B427289C4FDAB6D7602398F57896" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-march-2026-09032026" data-id="9B2D40CD646443F2913EAAEC8E4B9693" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026</a></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon put AI spending on trial</h1> <p>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> </div> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>AI spending is no longer judged by ambition alone</strong>. Investors now want visible payback.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Alphabet had the clearest initial market reward, while Meta faced the toughest </strong>reaction.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Cloud and advertising are working, but cash flow pressure is becoming harder </strong>to ignore.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span> <p><span>Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite growth story. It has also become one of its most expensive hobbies. On 29 April 2026, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon gave investors a fresh look at the same big question: is AI spending turning into revenue, margins and cash flow?</span></p> <p><span>The answer is not a simple yes or no. It is more like: yes, but the receipt is getting longer.</span></p> <p><span>The early market reaction showed that investors are becoming more selective. Alphabet was the only clear initial winner, helped by strong Google Cloud growth, resilient Search and better profitability. Meta had the weakest reaction, despite strong advertising growth, because investors focused on the company’s higher capital expenditure plan. In this AI cycle, good revenue is helpful. Good revenue with controlled spending is better.</span></p> <p><span>The chart below puts the AI spending debate in one simple frame: capital expenditure is rising fast, but most Big Tech firms still generate strong free cash flow. Amazon is the clear exception in 2026, as its investment cycle is expected to push free cash flow negative. That is why investors are asking not only “can they spend?” but “which companies can turn that spending into revenue, margins and cash flow fastest?”</span></p> </span></p> </h3> <span> </span> <span> </span> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank analysis. The 2026 figures are based on Bloomberg forecasts. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Cloud gives the first answer</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Microsoft gave investors one of the cleaner AI payback signals. Revenue came in at 82.89 billion USD, ahead of expectations, while Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency. Its AI business also passed a 37 billion USD annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-on-year. That is the kind of line investors wanted to see: AI is not only a product demo, it is becoming a business line.</span></p> <p><span>Still, the trade-off is visible. Microsoft said cloud gross margin was pressured by AI infrastructure and AI product usage. In plain English, customers are using the tools, but the tools are not free to run. Chips, servers and power do not accept stock options as payment.</span></p> <p><span>Amazon told a similar story, but with a sharper cash flow warning. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud business, grew 28% in constant currency, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. The company also said its chips business topped a 20 billion USD revenue run rate. That is encouraging for the AI demand story.</span></p> <p><span>But Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to 1.2 billion USD from 25.9 billion USD a year earlier, mainly because property and equipment spending rose sharply, reflecting AI investment. This is the core tension: AWS is accelerating, but the infrastructure bill is absorbing much of the benefit for now.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Advertising still pays the rent</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Alphabet and Meta showed that AI is already helping the advertising machine. Alphabet reported revenue of 109.90 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. Google Search and Other revenue rose 19%, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to 20.03 billion USD. Even better, Google Cloud operating income rose to 6.60 billion USD from 2.18 billion USD a year earlier.</span></p> <p><span>That explains the positive initial stock reaction. Alphabet did not only spend more. It showed where the payoff is appearing: Search remains strong, Cloud is scaling, and AI usage is supporting demand rather than clearly damaging the core business.</span></p> <p><span>Meta also delivered strong numbers. Revenue rose 33% to 56.31 billion USD, advertising revenue rose 33%, and operating margin stayed at 41%. For most companies, that would be a victory lap with a modest sandwich.</span></p> <p><span>But Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to 125 to 145 billion USD, from 115 to 135 billion USD. That changed the market conversation. Investors are not saying Meta’s AI strategy is failing. They are saying the spending bar has moved higher again, so the proof also needs to move higher.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The new test: useful growth</strong></h3> <p><span>For long-term investors, this earnings round is useful because it separates AI excitement from AI economics. The strongest signals are not vague statements about transformation. They are concrete signs: faster cloud growth, better ad performance, stronger operating income and healthy free cash flow.</span></p> <p><span>The infographic below turns the earnings season into a simple checklist. Each company has a different AI test, but the investor question is the same: where should the payoff appear, and which numbers will show whether it is real?</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank analysis and in-house framework. For illustrative purposes only.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is overbuilding. If data centre capacity grows faster than customer demand, margins could suffer. Watch whether cloud growth keeps pace with capital expenditure.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is pricing. If AI tools become widely available and similar, customers may resist paying much more for them. Adoption is good. Paid adoption is better.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is investor patience. These companies can afford large spending plans, but even Big Tech does not get unlimited benefit of the doubt. The market is now asking for receipts, not just roadmaps.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Watch cloud growth alongside capital expenditure,</strong> not in isolation. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Follow free cash flow,</strong> especially at Amazon and Meta. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Look for AI comments </strong>tied to paid usage, pricing or margins. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Treat one quarter as evidence,</strong> not a final verdict. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From promise to payback</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This earnings round does not settle the AI debate. It sharpens it. Microsoft and Alphabet showed the clearest early evidence that AI spending is turning into measurable business momentum. Amazon showed strong demand, but also how quickly investment can swallow cash flow. Meta showed that even excellent advertising growth may not satisfy investors when the spending plan gets bigger. <br /> <br /> For long-term investors, the lesson is simple: AI still matters, but the market is becoming less impressed by the size of the kitchen and more interested in the meal. Big Tech is cooking. Now investors want to know who can serve profitably.<br /> </span></p> <p><em >This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <em> The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 27 April 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 27 April 2026</strong></h1> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Recap of last week (20 to 24 April 2026)</h4> <hr /> <p><em>Oil shocks meet resilient risk appetite.</em></p> <p>Markets balanced rising geopolitical tension and higher oil prices against steady earnings and AI-driven momentum. US equities extended gains, while Europe lagged under energy pressure. Volatility stayed contained but elevated, signalling caution rather than stress, while bonds and commodities reflected a renewed inflation impulse.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Resilience persists, but the macro backdrop is becoming less forgiving.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>Narrow leadership continues; regional performance diverges along energy exposure lines.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US equities:</strong> Narrow leadership continues to carry the market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pushed higher through the week (April 23–24), supported by strong earnings and semiconductor momentum. Intel’s +23.6% surge (April 24) and gains in AMD and Arm reinforced AI-led strength, while weaker prints such as ServiceNow (–17.8%) exposed fragility beneath the surface. Oil-driven inflation concerns capped broader participation, keeping the rally concentrated. <strong>Market pulse:</strong> Strong at the top, but increasingly dependent on a narrow group.</li> <li><strong>Europe and Asia:</strong> Energy divergence defines regional performance. European equities declined, with the STOXX 600 down through the week as rising oil prices pressured margins, particularly in transport and industrials. Energy majors provided partial support, while selective earnings (Nestlé, ASM International) offered pockets of strength. In Asia, Japan and Korea outperformed on chip demand, while oil-importing economies showed strain. <strong>Market pulse:</strong> Global equities are diverging along energy exposure lines.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Focus shifts to earnings concentration risk. Results from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Apple will test whether AI-led leadership can broaden. Any disappointment could expose the market’s narrow base, especially with oil still elevated.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>Elevated but orderly: hedging persists without panic.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>VIX and implied moves:</strong> The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with spikes tied to Strait of Hormuz developments fading quickly. Options pricing reflected controlled risk, with implied weekly moves tightening from around 1.4% early in the week to below 1% mid-week before re-expanding. Skew remained defensive at times, with downside protection demand reappearing despite strong equity performance.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Markets are hedged, not stressed.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>With the Federal Reserve decision and heavy earnings calendar, implied moves have widened again toward roughly 1.6% to 1.7%. Volatility is likely to be event-driven rather than trend-driven, with skew direction offering the clearest signal of sentiment shifts.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Hedged participation dominates: engagement without conviction.</em></p> <p>Options flow showed consistent demand for downside protection across indices and cyclical sectors, particularly early in the week. Investors remained active but cautious, maintaining hedges rather than expressing outright bearish views.</p> <p>Selective upside participation appeared in large-cap technology, energy, and financials, but rarely in isolation. Call buying was typically paired with protective structures, including collars and two-sided volatility trades, especially around earnings and macro catalysts. By week’s end, positioning evolved into more balanced setups, with increased use of paired strategies.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors are participating, but always with protection attached.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>Expect continued preference for structured exposure into major earnings and the Fed. If realised volatility exceeds implied levels, positioning may shift toward more directional trades; otherwise, two-sided strategies are likely to dominate. Watch skew and short-dated flows for early signals of conviction returning.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Stable but selective: institutional flows drive the narrative.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum:</strong> Bitcoin held in the 75,000 to 78,000 range, while Ethereum remained softer near 2,300. Institutional flows remained the key driver, with IBIT seeing steady inflows, while ETHA showed mixed demand. Crypto equities reflected selective risk appetite, and altcoins remained secondary to broader sentiment.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Stability holds, but conviction is uneven and flow-dependent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>Crypto will continue to track macro risk sentiment, particularly equity volatility and rates. Sustained inflows into IBIT versus mixed ETHA flows suggest leadership remains concentrated in Bitcoin unless broader risk appetite strengthens.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Yields rise as inflation concerns return via energy.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries and European yields:</strong> US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year near 4.30 to 4.35% during the week, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations. The 2-year fluctuated between roughly 3.72% and 3.84%, reflecting uncertainty around policy direction. European yields followed, pressured by similar inflation dynamics.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Bonds are repricing inflation risk, not growth optimism.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>The Federal Reserve decision and forward guidance will be key. Any shift in tone toward persistent inflation could push yields higher, while a more cautious stance may stabilise the front end. Oil remains the critical input variable.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Energy leads: supply disruption drives the complex.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Oil and energy:</strong> Oil moved above 100 mid-week as supply disruptions intensified, lifting broader commodity indices. Fuel products led gains, while natural gas diverged lower on oversupply. Agricultural markets began pricing fertiliser shortages and weather risks, while metals remained mixed.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Commodities are being driven by supply shocks, not demand strength.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>Oil remains the dominant driver. Any progress in negotiations could ease prices quickly, while continued disruption may extend inflationary pressure across the complex. Watch agricultural markets for second-round effects from fertiliser constraints and weather patterns.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Dollar mixed as traditional correlations weaken.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US dollar and majors:</strong> The US dollar showed mixed performance, firming early in the week before softening. EURUSD traded around 1.17, while USDJPY hovered near 159 to 160, raising intervention risks. Commodity-linked currencies strengthened alongside oil, reflecting selective macro alignment.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX markets are driven more by rates than risk sentiment.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Central bank divergence will be the key driver, with Fed guidance and global policy signals shaping flows. USD direction will depend more on rate expectations than oil unless volatility spikes.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended gains through the week of April 20–24, led by Intel at +23.6% and broader AI semiconductor momentum; European equities declined with the STOXX 600 under oil-related margin pressure.</li> <li>The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with intraday spikes tied to geopolitical developments fading quickly – elevated but orderly.</li> <li>Options flow showed a consistent preference for hedged participation: downside protection across indices and cyclicals, with selective upside in technology, energy, and financials paired with collars and two-sided structures.</li> <li>Bitcoin held in the 75,000–78,000 range, supported by steady IBIT inflows; Ethereum remained softer near 2,300 with mixed ETF demand.</li> <li>US 10-year Treasury yields moved to 4.30–4.35% and the 2-year fluctuated between 3.72% and 3.84%, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations rather than growth signals.</li> <li>Oil moved above 100 mid-week on Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, lifting broader commodity indices; natural gas diverged lower on oversupply.</li> <li>EURUSD traded around 1.17; USDJPY hovered near 159–160, raising intervention concerns as FX markets tracked rate differentials more than risk sentiment.</li> <li>Cross-asset positioning reflected caution beneath resilient surfaces: equities higher but narrow; volatility contained but skewed defensively; bonds repricing inflation, not growth.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 27 April to 1 May 2026</strong></h2> <p>The coming week is structurally complex. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision arrives against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation risk that markets have already begun pricing, leaving guidance tone as the dominant variable. At the same time, concentrated earnings from the five largest US technology companies will determine whether the current AI-led equity rally can broaden or sustain its current pace.</p> <p>The macro calendar is dense. Consumer confidence data and the start of big tech earnings set the tone early in the week, followed by the FOMC decision mid-week alongside earnings from Microsoft and Amazon. Apple reports toward the end of the week, with the US employment report rounding out a period that could reset risk appetite across asset classes.</p> <p>The Fed decision is the single most binary risk event. Any shift in forward guidance toward sustained higher rates – in response to oil-driven inflation – could meaningfully reprice the front end of the yield curve and disrupt the equity rally’s narrow foundation. A more neutral or data-dependent tone may provide relief for bonds and extend the equity bid, though oil remains an independent variable capable of overriding either scenario.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 27 Apr – China PMI; Asian market open sentiment<br /> Tue 28 Apr – US consumer confidence; Alphabet Q1 earnings after close; Meta Platforms Q1 earnings after close<br /> Wed 29 Apr – FOMC rate decision (20:00 GMT); Fed Chair press conference; Microsoft Q1 earnings after close; Amazon Q1 earnings after close<br /> Thu 30 Apr – Apple Q1 earnings after close; US initial jobless claims<br /> Fri 1 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); US unemployment rate </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>Markets remain resilient, but the balance is becoming more delicate. Strong earnings and AI-driven momentum continue to support equities, yet rising energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations across asset classes. Volatility remains contained, but positioning shows clear caution beneath the surface.</p> <p>The coming week will be decisive. Central bank guidance and concentrated earnings will determine whether markets can sustain their current trajectory or begin to reflect a more challenging macro environment.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. 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20 April 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 20 April 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Gains without full conviction – markets climbed on easing oil fears and earnings momentum, but the hedging never stopped.</em></p> <p>Markets navigated a week dominated by shifting US–Iran dynamics, with oil volatility driving cross-asset moves while equities pushed to record highs. Investors increasingly looked through geopolitical noise, supported by resilient earnings and easing inflation signals, though sentiment remained fragile beneath the surface. By week's end, optimism around diplomacy briefly boosted risk appetite before renewed tensions reintroduced uncertainty. It was a week of gains, but not of full conviction.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>Record highs driven by tech strength and easing oil fears.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>United States:</strong> Wall Street extended its rally, with the S&P 500 moving from 6,886 early in the week to above 7,100 by Friday. Gains were led by AI-linked names and financials, as markets repeatedly treated geopolitical shocks as temporary. Oil pullbacks acted as a key trigger for renewed risk-taking, while earnings provided confirmation.</li> <li><strong>Europe & Asia:</strong> Europe remained more sensitive to oil and inflation, with selective strength in banks and travel as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged on earnings. Asia stayed supported by the AI cycle, led by semiconductor demand, though profit-taking emerged late in the week.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Equities are trending higher, but leadership is narrow and macro-dependent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Earnings now take centre stage. Tesla and Intel will test whether AI-driven optimism can justify current valuations, while airline results will offer insight into demand versus cost pressures. If earnings confirm resilience, equities can hold levels; if not, the market loses its main pillar.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>Volatility compresses despite persistent geopolitical risk.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>VIX:</strong> The VIX declined through the week into the high-teens, signalling calmer conditions even as Hormuz tensions persisted. Implied moves narrowed, but consistent downside skew showed investors continued to pay for protection. The surface calm masks a market still hedging tail risks.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Volatility is low, but not trusted.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>Focus shifts to earnings-driven volatility. Index volatility may stay contained, but single-stock volatility is likely to rise. Any renewed escalation in oil or geopolitics would quickly reprice index volatility from these compressed levels.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Positioning shows participation with protection, not conviction.</em></p> <p>Options flow reflected a market staying invested while actively managing risk. Upside exposure was present but largely expressed through defined-risk structures such as call spreads, while downside hedging remained persistent. Large-cap equities and financials showed the most caution, reflecting earnings uncertainty.</p> <p>Sector dispersion stood out: metals saw constructive upside interest, energy flows were selective, and broader equity positioning avoided outright directional bets.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors kept risk on, but consistently paid to hedge it.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>This positioning creates asymmetry. If earnings surprise positively, positioning may need to chase upside. If not, existing hedge demand suggests limited downside panic but continued grind rather than breakout.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Crypto stable but conviction remains uneven.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Bitcoin & Ethereum:</strong> Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range, while Ethereum lagged slightly, highlighting uneven demand. Institutional flows remained supportive, with IBIT leading and ETHA seeing smaller but steady inflows. Crypto-linked equities outperformed at times, reflecting leveraged exposure to sentiment.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Crypto is stable, but still macro-driven rather than independent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>Crypto direction remains tied to broader risk sentiment. If equities extend gains and volatility stays low, flows should remain supportive. A macro shock – especially via oil or rates – would likely pull crypto back in line with risk assets.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Yields ease, then stabilise as macro signals balance out.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US yields:</strong> US yields declined through mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil, before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience. Central banks maintained a cautious stance, signalling no urgency to tighten despite energy-related inflation risks.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Bond markets reflect balance, not stress.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>Retail sales data becomes key for validating consumer strength. Strong data could push yields higher again, while weaker numbers would reinforce the current steady-rate narrative.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Oil volatility dominates, metals follow macro cues.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Oil moved sharply through the week, falling from elevated levels before rebounding as geopolitical headlines shifted. This volatility shaped broader market sentiment and inflation expectations.</li> <li><strong>Metals:</strong> Gold traded in a wide range, while copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Oil remains the macro anchor for all assets.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>Geopolitics remains the primary driver. Any clarity on Hormuz or US–Iran talks will directly impact inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Commodities are likely to stay reactive rather than trend-driven.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Dollar weakens, then stabilises as risk sentiment shifts.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US dollar:</strong> The US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising as oil rebounded and uncertainty returned.</li> <li><strong>Japanese yen:</strong> The yen remained weak despite lower yields, reflecting carry dynamics and policy uncertainty.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX remains driven by rate expectations and risk sentiment.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Currency direction hinges on rate expectations. Strong US data could support the dollar, while continued risk-on sentiment would favour cyclical currencies.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The S&P 500 advanced from 6,886 to above 7,100 over the week, led by AI-linked names and financials as markets treated geopolitical shocks as temporary.</li> <li>European indices showed selective gains, with banks and travel outperforming as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged; Asia was supported by semiconductor demand but saw profit-taking late in the week.</li> <li>The VIX declined into the high-teens, compressing despite persistent Hormuz tensions, though elevated downside skew signalled ongoing demand for tail protection.</li> <li>Options flow favoured defined-risk structures – call spreads over outright calls – with persistent downside hedging across large-cap equities and financials reflecting earnings uncertainty.</li> <li>Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range while Ethereum lagged; institutional flows via IBIT remained supportive, with crypto direction remaining macro-dependent.</li> <li>US Treasury yields declined mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience; central banks signalled no urgency to tighten.</li> <li>Oil moved sharply lower then rebounded as geopolitical headlines shifted, remaining the primary cross-asset anchor shaping sentiment and inflation expectations through the week.</li> <li>Gold traded in a wide range; copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations; the US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising on oil's rebound.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 20 April to 24 April 2026</strong></h2> <p>Earnings season moves into its most consequential stretch, making the coming week structurally more binary than the one just passed. With geopolitical risk still unresolved and volatility compressed, a single earnings miss from a high-profile AI name could reprice both single-stock and index volatility simultaneously.</p> <p>The key focus areas are equity earnings and macro data validation. Tesla and Intel are the headline tests for whether AI-driven equity valuations can hold at current levels. Airline results will offer a read on consumer demand versus cost pressures. US retail sales data is the pivotal macro release, capable of either reinforcing the soft-landing narrative or raising fresh concerns about consumer resilience.</p> <p>The single biggest risk event is the combination of tech earnings and retail sales landing in the same week. A positive earnings surprise without macro confirmation could create a narrow, fragile rally. A miss in either would likely trigger the repricing that compressed volatility has so far avoided.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 20 Apr – Markets reopen; geopolitical monitoring continues (Hormuz / US–Iran)<br /> Tue 21 Apr – Tesla earnings (after US close); early airline sector results<br /> Wed 22 Apr – Ongoing large-cap earnings; US macro data releases<br /> Thu 23 Apr – Intel earnings; US retail sales data<br /> Fri 24 Apr – End-of-week positioning; options expiry considerations </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>Markets delivered another week of gains, supported by easing oil fears and strong earnings momentum, but conviction remains conditional. Volatility is low, positioning is hedged, and leadership is narrow. With earnings accelerating and macro data in focus, the coming week will determine whether this rally broadens or stalls under its own expectations. Staying selective and flexible remains key.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. 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(CATL) shows that battery leaders may capture more value</strong> than many carmakers.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>Tesla spends a lot of time being discussed as a robotaxi, software and artificial intelligence story. That is fair, up to a point. But the latest development says something simpler and, for investors, probably more useful. Tesla is reportedly working on a smaller, cheaper electric vehicle, after years of pushing the market to focus on autonomy and futuristic optionality. That matters because it suggests the old EV battle is back in charge: price, scale, battery cost and who can still make money when the shiny story meets a tired consumer. </span></p> <span> <p><span>That is the real hook here. Tesla is not just updating a product plan. It is admitting, indirectly, that the market has changed. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced more than 408,000 vehicles but delivered just over 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that demand is no longer a one-way escalator. Tesla reports first-quarter earnings on 22 April 2026, so the next real test is whether management explains this as a temporary wobble or as part of a harder, more price-sensitive market.</span></p> </span> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Back to the driveway</strong></span></h3> <p>Tesla’s reported cheaper model matters because it looks like a reality check. A lower-priced compact sport utility vehicle could help volumes, keep factories busier and give Tesla a better answer to Chinese rivals and to a more cautious buyer in Europe and the United States. It also comes with a catch the size of a showroom. Cheaper cars usually mean thinner margins, unless battery costs fall fast enough to compensate. That is why this is more than a Tesla story. It says the EV market is entering a phase where affordability may matter more than aspiration. Flashy launch events are nice. Monthly payments still tend to win arguments.</p> <p>The broader electric vehicle backdrop is mixed rather than broken. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/surging-petrol-prices-drive-record-ev-sales-europe-march-2026-04-13/" target="_blank">Reuters</a> reported that global EV registrations rose 3% in March 2026, with Europe up 37% to nearly 540,000 units, helped by higher petrol prices. North America, by contrast, fell 30% after the end of tax credits. That split is important. It shows that EV demand still responds to economics, but those economics now depend more on fuel prices, incentives and pricing discipline than on novelty alone. In other words, the market is growing up. Like all adults, it has started reading the energy bill.</p> <span> </span> <span> </span> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong >Oil has entered the chat</strong></h3> <p><span>This is where the current oil backdrop matters. Brent crude was around 94.93 USD a barrel on 15 April 2026, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around 91.29 USD, even after some cooling from earlier spikes. Physical oil grades briefly surged far above futures prices during the recent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For drivers, and therefore for carmakers, that means one thing: uncertainty at the pump is back. And when fuel becomes a headache, EVs and hybrids start looking less like ideology and more like maths. </span></p> <p><span>That does not mean Tesla automatically wins. Higher oil prices can support EV demand, but they do not solve competition, financing costs or product fatigue. They simply improve the category’s pitch. For long-term investors, that is a useful distinction. Oil can lift interest in EVs, but only the right product mix, the right battery cost and the right manufacturing execution turn that interest into profits. This is one reason Tesla’s cheaper-car move matters now. It is a response to an EV market that may be helped by oil, but no longer rescued by excitement alone. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why battery makers matter more now</span></strong></h3> <p><span>If Tesla’s reported move is the reality check, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., is the second act. The Chinese battery giant beat first-quarter expectations this week, with profit up 48.5% year on year and revenue up 52.5%. Its share of the global electric vehicle battery market also climbed to 42.1% in early 2026, a reminder that more of the industry’s power is shifting toward the companies that control the battery bill. CATL’s own 2025 annual report said it held 39.2% of the global power battery market and 30.4% of global energy storage battery shipments. In February, it added another sign of where the market is heading, saying it would supply sodium-ion batteries for the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car with Changan, due by mid-2026. </span></p> <p><span>Why does that matter for Tesla and for investors looking at the wider EV chain? Because batteries are no longer a background component. They shape cost, charging speed, cold-weather performance, supply security and, increasingly, the balance of power in the industry. CATL is also reportedly considering another Hong Kong fundraising, which underlines a broader point: this industry still needs vast amounts of capital, and the companies providing the chemistry and scale may end up with more bargaining power than the brands selling the badge. Carmakers still sell the dream. Battery leaders increasingly control the economics. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The road can still get slippery</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are at least three risks to watch. First, Tesla’s cheaper-car pivot could help deliveries but pressure profitability if price cuts outrun cost savings. Second, oil could fall back quickly if geopolitics ease, which would soften one of the category’s current demand tailwinds. Third, battery leadership could make the EV market more unequal, with suppliers and low-cost manufacturers taking more value while premium carmakers fight harder for it. Early warning signs are straightforward: Tesla’s margin commentary on 22 April, inventory trends, battery pricing language from CATL, and whether Europe’s recent demand strength lasts once energy panic fades. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Watch whether cheaper EVs expand demand</strong>, or simply move the same demand down-market. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Follow battery leaders as closely as car brands. </strong>The chemistry race now shapes the profit race. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Treat oil as a demand variable, not a magic wand. </strong>It can help adoption, but not fix execution. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Where the real EV battle sits </span></strong></h3> <p><span>Tesla’s latest move brings the story back to the driveway. For all the talk of robotaxis, chips and humanoid robots, the near-term question is still whether Tesla can build a more affordable car that people want, at a margin investors can live with. That is why the CATL angle matters so much. <br /> <br /> In this phase of the EV race, the winners may not be the companies with the loudest future story, but the ones with the best battery access, the lowest cost curve and the clearest answer to a simple customer question: why should I buy this now? In the electric age, the dream still matters. The battery bill may matter more. </span></p> <p><span> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> <br /> The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em><br /> <br /> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Theme - Electric vehicles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:16:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 13 April 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Geopolitics drove a full market cycle this week – from stress to relief and back to uncertainty.</em></p> <p>Markets moved sharply through the week as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz first lifted oil and volatility, then a temporary ceasefire triggered a broad rally, before renewed escalation brought caution back. Inflation re-accelerated, central bank expectations shifted, and earnings season began to take focus. The key takeaway is simple: macro and geopolitics are again dominating price action across asset classes.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>Relief rally met macro reality across regions.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>United States:</strong> The S&P 500 gained 2.5% on 8 April as ceasefire hopes drove a sharp rotation into cyclicals, before stabilising into Friday as inflation and sentiment data cooled enthusiasm. Large-cap tech, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, remained supported by AI demand narratives.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> Indices such as the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) rallied on falling energy prices, with industrial and consumer names leading the recovery.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Strong semiconductor-led gains from Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company emerged early in the week before profit-taking emerged as macro uncertainty returned.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Equities remain reactive to energy and geopolitical shifts, with conviction still limited despite the mid-week surge.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Earnings take centre stage, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America setting the tone for financials. Tech leadership will be tested by ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Expect stock-level dispersion to rise as fundamentals begin to matter more alongside macro risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>Sharp compression followed by renewed tension.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>VIX trajectory:</strong> Volatility started elevated, with the VIX at 24.17 early in the week, before dropping to around 21 mid-week and further to 19.49 by Friday as ceasefire hopes eased market stress.</li> <li><strong>Renewed pressure:</strong> Volatility began to rise again into the new week, with futures pointing higher near 22 as tensions resurfaced. Expected moves compressed significantly during the mid-week lull, reflecting a temporary stabilisation in sentiment.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Volatility eased, but remains highly headline-sensitive and vulnerable to fast reversals.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>Volatility is likely to stay reactive, with geopolitical headlines and earnings both acting as catalysts. A sustained move higher in oil or negative earnings surprises could quickly reprice short-term volatility, while stable conditions may keep VIX contained near current levels.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Disciplined participation with a persistent hedging bias.</em></p> <p>Options flow reflected controlled engagement rather than strong conviction. Index positioning showed steady demand for downside protection, while large-cap tech flows shifted toward spreads and overwrites instead of outright calls. Financials reinforced this pattern, with event-driven, defined-risk positioning dominating ahead of earnings.</p> <p>In contrast, energy and metals saw more constructive flows, though consistently paired with hedging, highlighting conditional optimism rather than outright bullishness.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors stayed active, but prioritised risk-controlled exposure over directional bets.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>Earnings season will be the key driver of positioning. Expect continued use of spreads and structured trades, particularly in financials and tech, with implied volatility likely to rise around key events and skew remaining sensitive to macro risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Resilient, but still macro-driven.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Bitcoin:</strong> Traded between roughly $68k and $72k, holding steady despite sharp macro swings across other risk assets.</li> <li><strong>Ethereum and altcoins:</strong> Ethereum remained near $2.1k–$2.2k, while XRP and Solana showed selective strength. ETF flows remained supportive, with continued inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust, while iShares Ethereum Trust flows were more cautious.</li> </ul> <p>Crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of global risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Crypto remains stable, but direction is macro-dependent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>Crypto will likely continue tracking broader risk sentiment. ETF flows remain the key signal to watch – sustained inflows could support further upside, while macro shocks or equity weakness could quickly pressure prices.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Yields whipsawed by inflation and energy dynamics.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries:</strong> Yields rose early in the week, dropped sharply mid-week on easing energy fears, and then stabilised higher into Friday. The 10-year yield moved between roughly 4.24% and 4.35%, reflecting shifting expectations around inflation and monetary policy.</li> <li><strong>Policy outlook:</strong> Stronger CPI data reinforced a more cautious outlook for rate cuts, with markets reducing the number of anticipated cuts priced in for 2026.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Bond markets remain anchored to inflation expectations, with energy-driven CPI the dominant variable.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>Focus shifts to central bank communication and inflation persistence. Any sustained rise in energy prices could push yields higher, while weaker data or dovish signals could stabilise the curve. Watch for commentary from Fed officials around the earnings period.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Oil remained the dominant macro driver across asset classes.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Crude oil:</strong> Drove cross-asset moves throughout the week, rising above $110 early on, dropping below $100 on ceasefire hopes, and rebounding again as tensions escalated. The Strait of Hormuz remained the key risk channel, with supply disruption fears driving volatility in both directions.</li> <li><strong>Metals:</strong> Followed the broader risk sentiment, posting mid-week gains before stabilising. No independent catalyst emerged; metals moved in line with the macro mood.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Commodities, especially oil, remain central to macro risk transmission across all asset classes.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>Geopolitics will continue to dominate the oil price. Any disruption in shipping or supply through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices higher again, while signs of de-escalation may cap gains. Metals will likely track broader risk sentiment and global growth expectations.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Dollar swings tracked geopolitics and rate repricing.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US dollar:</strong> Strengthened early in the week, weakened mid-week on risk-on sentiment from ceasefire hopes, and rebounded again into the weekend as tensions returned and inflation data supported yields.</li> <li><strong>Key pairs:</strong> EURUSD traded between roughly 1.15 and 1.17, while USDJPY remained elevated near 159–160. Commodity-linked currencies moved in line with oil prices, reflecting the energy-FX transmission channel.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX markets remain driven by energy-linked inflation expectations and rate differentials.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Currency moves will continue to reflect rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Watch for further volatility in USD pairs, particularly if inflation or energy dynamics shift again. USDJPY remains elevated and sensitive to any change in Fed guidance.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Geopolitics drove rapid cross-asset swings, with ceasefire hopes mid-week triggering a sharp risk-on move that partially reversed as tensions resurfaced.</li> <li>The S&P 500 gained 2.5% mid-week; European indices including the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) surged on falling energy costs.</li> <li>The VIX moved from 24.17 to 19.49 over the week before futures pointed back toward 22, reflecting sustained headline sensitivity.</li> <li>Options flows shifted to spreads and overwrites in tech and financials, reflecting disciplined, hedged positioning ahead of earnings.</li> <li>Crude oil swung from above $110 to below $100 and back, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key risk channel.</li> <li>US 10-year Treasury yields oscillated between 4.24% and 4.35%, driven by energy-linked inflation re-acceleration and shifting rate cut expectations.</li> <li>Bitcoin held between $68k and $72k, with ETF inflows remaining supportive despite macro volatility elsewhere.</li> <li>Earnings season begins: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are the key names to watch.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 13 April to 17 April 2026</strong></h2> <p>The dominant dynamic heading into the new week is the overlap of earnings season and persistent geopolitical risk. This is a structurally complex setup: corporate results can deliver fundamental anchors, but a single headline from the Strait of Hormuz can override earnings signals within hours. That combination makes for an unusually high-dispersion environment.</p> <p>Key events this week centre on major financial sector earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America reporting in the first half of the week. These results will set the tone for financials broadly and will be closely watched for commentary on credit conditions, consumer health, and trading revenues. Technology and semiconductors follow, with ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting later in the week, testing whether AI-driven demand narratives remain intact. On the macro side, watch US retail sales and any Federal Reserve speakers for fresh guidance on the rate path.</p> <p>The defining event remains geopolitical: any fresh escalation or de-escalation at the Strait of Hormuz will have immediate cross-asset implications, particularly for oil, USD pairs, and rate expectations. A sustained move in crude above $110 would likely put renewed pressure on equities and fixed income simultaneously, while a credible de-escalation could unlock the next leg of the relief rally seen mid-week.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 13 Apr – Markets reopen; watch weekend geopolitical developments and oil price gaps<br /> Tue 14 Apr – JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings; US retail sales (Mar)<br /> Wed 15 Apr – Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings; Bank of America Q1 earnings; Federal Reserve Beige Book<br /> Thu 16 Apr – ASML Q1 earnings; US initial jobless claims; Netflix Q1 earnings<br /> Fri 17 Apr – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q1 earnings; University of Michigan consumer sentiment </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>Markets ended the week stronger, but the underlying picture remains unstable. The rapid shift from stress to relief and back again highlights how dependent sentiment is on geopolitical developments, with oil functioning as the primary transmission mechanism across equities, fixed income, currencies, and crypto. Inflation pressures tied to energy are complicating the policy outlook, while earnings season now offers a potential anchor for fundamentals – but only if macro conditions allow the signal to come through.</p> <p>For investors, this is a market that rewards discipline. Staying engaged while actively managing risk remains essential, as both opportunities and shocks can emerge quickly and with limited warning.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. 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For a deeper, step-by-step walkthrough of the strategies and how they are constructed, including practical examples, refer to the full article: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/asml-earnings---how-to-think-about-the-setup-before-the-numbers-10042026" data-id="8F7A31C3424E4A1099A2484888431B48" data-type="Article">ASML earnings - how to think about the setup before the numbers</a><br /> <br /> <span><hr /> <strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong></span>. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.<br /></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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02 - how to avoid assignment</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---03---how-to-use-option-assignment-to-your-advantage-04072025" data-id="D952B245169B42DABC33C6CFDBF756F5" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---04---option-assignment-cheat-sheet-04072025" data-id="1D4CD745132B42C88A359DE58F7E8A0C" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/contract-options">Contract Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Equity Options</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Options education</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Option Strategies</span> <span>Defined risk strategies</span> <span>Bearish strategies</span> <span>Bullish strategies</span> <span>Range‑bound strategies</span> <span>Volatility and event strategies</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 30 March 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 30 March 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz delivered a week of whiplash – and markets finished lower.</em></p> <p>The Iran war entered its fourth week as the dominant force across every asset class. Monday’s 48-hour ultimatum triggered a broad selloff; Tuesday’s delayed-strike announcement sparked a one-day relief rally; Wednesday’s US 15-point peace proposal briefly lifted sentiment; and Iran’s formal rejection of those terms on Thursday sent equities sharply lower once more. The net result: S&P 500 down for the week, Brent crude near USD 110, global bond yields at cycle highs, the VIX at 27.44, and gold testing its 200-day moving average. Traditional safe-haven correlations broke down – gold fell, the yen weakened despite rising Japanese yields, and institutional options flow was defensively positioned without exception across all five sessions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>A week of two halves – brief diplomatic relief swallowed by fresh escalation.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Monday, rallied 1.2% to 6,581 Tuesday, then dropped 1.7% to 6,477 Thursday as Iran rejected the US peace plan; the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to 21,408 the same day. Chipmakers bore the brunt – Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5% – while Valero rose 5.8% as energy was the week’s only consistent sector winner. Super Micro tumbled 33% on chip-smuggling charges.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> ASML outperformed on SK Hynix’s USD 8bn equipment order. Vestas gained 6% on fresh US project orders; Pandora rose 9.2% on lower precious-metal costs. Edenred fell 17.2% after an Italian antitrust probe. Boliden collapsed 20% on mine disruption; Telecom Italia gained 4.7% on a Poste Italiane bid. The FTSE 100 lost 1.3% Thursday.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> South Korea’s KOSPI fell 6.5% Monday – Samsung −4.7%, SK Hynix −6.2% – while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.5% before partially recovering mid-week.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Equities are geopolitics-led; any sustained recovery requires credible Iran de-escalation, not just a one-day diplomatic headline.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Nike earnings on Tuesday 31 March are the week’s key corporate event and an early consumer-demand test. Q1 ends Tuesday – expect rebalancing flows. The April 6 Iran deadline is the dominant binary for equity direction. NFP releases Good Friday to closed markets; the full equity reaction defers to Monday 6 April, the same morning the Iran deadline expires.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>VIX holds above 27 – geopolitics, not earnings, runs this vol market.</em></p> <ul> <li>The VIX closed the week at 27.44, anchored entirely to geopolitical headlines. Short-term measures (VIX1D) briefly dipped below 20 during Tuesday’s relief before spiking again as Iran rejected the US plan. Options markets priced an S&P 500 expected weekly move of approximately 178 points (2.74%) at Monday’s open, narrowing to around 80 points (1.2%) by Friday’s close as expiry positioning compressed. Near-the-money calls occasionally traded marginally richer than puts – signalling uncertainty about direction rather than outright fear of an imminent crash.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Volatility stays elevated and range-bound until the Iran situation resolves; the April 6 deadline is the next hard event horizon.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>Iran’s April 6 deadline creates a hard VIX event. Dealers’ short-put inventory from the week’s protection buying structurally reinforces downside pressure. A credible ceasefire signal could collapse implied vol rapidly; escalation pushes VIX toward 35+. The VIX term structure – front-month elevated but well below spot – is pricing a specific event window, not open-ended fear.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Protection first, conviction a distant second – across every segment.</em></p> <p>All five sessions pointed in the same direction: investors leaned defensive. Index and broad-market hedging was consistent throughout, and the largest technology stocks attracted downside protection on every session from Tuesday onward. Selective long-horizon call buying was present in a handful of names, but it never came close to offsetting the protective tone.</p> <p>The sector picture added nuance. Energy started the week with genuine upside appetite in selected names, but that eroded steadily and closed on a clearly defensive note. Precious metals swung sharply, with a constructive mid-week session sandwiched between bearish ones; the week still ended on the defensive side. Financials split the room: meaningful protection and genuine accumulation both appeared in size, with no clear sector consensus emerging.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors did not abandon exposure, but they consistently paid for insurance – in every segment, across every session.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>April 17 is the dominant expiry horizon. The weight of accumulated downside hedging across indices and growth names creates a structural amplifier on any weak session. A credible Iran de-escalation is the clearest path to rapid protection unwinding and vol compression. Until that signal arrives, the defensive positioning bias is likely to persist.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Crypto tracked equities all week – no safe-haven function on offer.</em></p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin ranged USD 67,800–71,000 before closing near USD 68,600; Ether held between USD 2,035 and 2,166. Both tracked equities without divergence. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a USD 171M net outflow on 26 March (IBIT −$42M); Ether ETFs lost USD 92M total (ETHA −$140M, partly offset by other products). Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and most miners remained under pressure; Marathon Digital announced Bitcoin sales to reduce debt. XRP and Solana drifted lower throughout.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Bitcoin shows relative strength within crypto, but institutional conviction remains absent until macro and geopolitical conditions stabilise.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>April 6 is as binary for crypto as for equities – de-escalation could quickly restore risk appetite with Bitcoin as the first beneficiary. Monitor weekly IBIT and ETHA flows: a return to sustained positive IBIT inflows is the clearest signal of institutional re-engagement. Ethereum’s underperformance versus Bitcoin will persist until ETH ETF flows reverse.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Bond markets are pricing a rate hike – not a cut – for the first time this cycle.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> The 2-year Treasury yield surged 10bps Thursday to 3.98% – its highest this cycle – with futures now pricing a hike rather than a cut as oil-driven inflation dominates. The 10-year closed at 4.42%; the 2–10 spread flattened to below 45bps from 73bps in early February.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> Germany’s 2-year Schatz rose 11bps in a single session to 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); the 10-year Bund hit its highest close since 2011 at 3.07%. The Germany–France 10-year spread widened to 71bps, the year’s widest.</li> <li><strong>Japan:</strong> The 2-year JGB reached 1.386% – highest since 1996 – with markets pricing >65% odds of a BoJ hike at the late-April meeting.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Energy-driven inflation has reasserted itself as the dominant macro force, overriding every other central bank consideration globally.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>Eurozone flash CPI Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) will confirm oil-shock pass-through; an upside surprise pushes Bund yields higher. Germany CPI Monday is the first read. NFP on Good Friday defers the full bond-market reaction to Monday 6 April. The BoJ’s late-April meeting is increasingly priced to deliver a 25bp hike.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Brent’s record monthly advance is reshaping every other asset class in its image.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Energy:</strong> Brent crude surged toward USD 110 Thursday, logging a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Around 1,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf due to war-risk insurance withdrawals. Singapore jet fuel hit USD 222/barrel (+137% since the war began); the gasoil–Brent spread exceeded the 2022 Russia-shock peak. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 31% year-on-year.</li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Gold tested its 200-day moving average at USD 4,113 as ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month (−2.7% of holdings) – the metal is trading as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> Persian Gulf fertiliser disruptions are already curtailing Australian wheat plantings.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> The supply shock is structural – until Hormuz reopens meaningfully, energy prices and their inflationary knock-ons will continue to define the macro backdrop.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>April 6 is the key catalyst: credible de-escalation could trigger a sharp Brent reversal and a gold recovery as the liquidity-selling dynamic reverses. OPEC+ spare capacity to offset Hormuz disruption is limited – watch Saudi Arabia and UAE for any output signals. Fertiliser shortages will increasingly feed into agricultural supply balances from April planting decisions onward.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Safe havens in disarray – neither the dollar nor the yen is offering clean shelter.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>USDJPY:</strong> Reached 159.85 as Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz supply weighed heavily on the yen; Japan’s Ministry of Finance warned of “bold actions” before the pair retreated below 159.60. Rising JGB yields would normally support the yen, but the energy-import shock offsets that, keeping USDJPY close to intervention levels.</li> <li><strong>EURUSD:</strong> Hit a Thursday low of 1.1520, recovering to 1.1550 by Friday.</li> <li><strong>AUDUSD:</strong> Fell to 0.6872 – its lowest since late January – on weaker risk sentiment and softer Australian February CPI (3.7% YoY vs. 3.8% expected). The Swiss franc also lost safe-haven appeal.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Currency safe-haven hierarchies are being rewritten by the Iran shock; USDJPY near 160 remains the most important technical level in G10 FX.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Any fresh USDJPY push toward 160 will re-trigger MoF intervention concern. Eurozone CPI Tuesday directly affects EUR positioning. NFP defers the full dollar reaction to Monday 6 April. AUDUSD has meaningful recovery potential in an Iran de-escalation scenario; further escalation targets early-February lows near 0.6944.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li>S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week lower; Thursday alone saw S&P −1.7% to 6,477 and Nasdaq −2.4% to 21,408 on Iran’s rejection of the US peace plan. Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5%.</li> <li>VIX closed at 27.44; options flow was defensively positioned all five sessions – institutional put demand in SPY, QQQ, and high-beta single names throughout the week without exception.</li> <li>Bitcoin closed near USD 68,600, tracking equities; spot ETF outflows confirmed absent institutional conviction (IBIT −$42M, ETHA −$140M on 26 March alone).</li> <li>US 2-year yield hit 3.98% (cycle high); Germany 2-year Schatz 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); Japan 2-year JGB 1.386% (highest since 1996). Bond markets are pricing a hike, not a cut.</li> <li>Brent crude logged a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Bloomberg Commodity Index +31% year-on-year. Singapore jet fuel at USD 222/barrel, up 137% since the war began.</li> <li>Gold tested its 200-DMA at USD 4,113; ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month. The metal is trading as a liquidity instrument, not a safe haven.</li> <li>USDJPY reached 159.85 – one step from MoF intervention. Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz is the structural driver of yen weakness despite rising JGB yields.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 30 March to 3 April 2026</strong></h2> <p>The week is shaped by one inescapable fact: Trump’s revised April 6 Iran deadline arrives next Monday with negotiations stalled. Markets will price de-escalation versus escalation probabilities throughout the week, keeping cross-asset correlations unstable.</p> <p>Germany CPI on Monday 30 March provides the first G7 inflation read of the week; Eurozone flash CPI follows on Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) – an upside surprise could force ECB hawkishness back onto the table. Tuesday also marks Q1-end, with portfolio-rebalancing flows likely to amplify intraday moves. Nike reports earnings Tuesday as the week’s key corporate event. ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday 1 April (consensus 52.3 versus prior 52.4) will be the first April factory read; any deceleration alongside elevated input costs reinforces stagflation concerns.</p> <p>The defining data point arrives Good Friday 4 April: US Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +57,000 after February’s −92,000 shock; unemployment expected at 4.4%). Equity and bond markets are closed for Easter. The full reaction therefore compresses into Monday 6 April – the same morning the Iran deadline formally expires. Two binary events stacked on a single Monday open: keep liquidity available and position accordingly.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 30 Mar – Germany CPI (Mar, prelim)<br /> Tue 31 Mar – Eurozone flash CPI (Mar, consensus 2.5%); Q1-end; Nike earnings (NKE)<br /> Wed 1 Apr – ISM Manufacturing (consensus 52.3)<br /> Fri 4 Apr – US Nonfarm Payrolls (markets closed, Good Friday)<br /> Mon 6 Apr – NFP market reaction + Trump Iran deadline expires </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>The week of 23 to 27 March confirmed that the Iran war has fractured traditional macro correlations: gold is selling off, the yen is weakening despite rising yields, and bond markets are pricing rate hikes in a slowing economy. The Hormuz supply shock is structural – stranded vessels, fertiliser shortages, and record refined-fuel margins are not temporary features. With the April 6 deadline approaching and talks stalled, the outcome range remains unusually wide. Maintaining diversification, keeping hedge costs in check, and preserving liquidity for a potentially historic Monday 6 April open is the most defensible posture heading into the Easter break.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID*3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844*7CMCORGID*3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C*40AdobeOrg*7CTS*3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis*latestarticles__;JSUlJSUlfg!!D2vWoWbN1g!q0-N8KI2xNqjfER40J43oxExGT_a5BN38Af7HrjGaX_o32plu_hmsZWlWD8Fo5BqMxaV96JNHEWDXM_qhyEq5SHi$">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. 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23 March 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 17:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass <br /> </strong></h1> <h4 data-start="199" data-end="249" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="199" data-end="249">23 March 2026 (recap week of 16 to 20 March 2026)</strong></h4> <hr /> <h2 data-start="251" data-end="280" class="article-heading--2"> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <p >Markets spent last week repricing a single dominant theme: energy-driven inflation risk colliding with a less accommodative policy outlook. Early-week relief faded as oil volatility and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance pushed investors back into defensive positioning.</p> <p >By Friday, the shift was clear. Equities weakened, bond yields surged, and volatility remained elevated, with macro risks firmly back in control of cross-asset direction.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse: </strong>sentiment rotated from cautious optimism to inflation-driven defensiveness.</em></p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p ><strong>A fragile rebound gave way to a broad risk reset.</strong><br /> US equities opened stronger, with the S&P 500 up 1.0% (16 Mar) as oil eased and AI names supported sentiment. That strength faded quickly, with a 1.4% decline (18 Mar) after the Fed reinforced a limited easing path, followed by continued pressure into Friday as oil and yields climbed.</p> <p >Europe and Asia were more exposed to the energy shock. The STOXX 600 fell 2.4% (19 Mar), while Japan and Korea posted sharp declines late in the week as higher energy costs raised concerns around growth and margins.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse:</strong> equities are no longer pricing growth— they’re pricing inflation risk.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead </strong><br /> Focus shifts to whether macro pressure feeds into earnings expectations. GameStop and retail-linked names will test risk appetite, while housing (KB Home) and payroll-linked earnings (Paychex) offer insight into consumer resilience. If oil stabilises, equities may find footing; if not, downside risk remains skewed toward cyclicals and Europe.<br /> A potential de-escalation in the Middle East adds a new layer to the outlook. The sharp rebound in equities on easing headlines highlights how sensitive markets remain to oil-driven inflation expectations; however, conflicting signals suggest any relief may remain headline-driven rather than durable.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p ><strong>Volatility remained elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.</strong><br /> The VIX dropped to 23.51 (16 Mar) before rising to 25.09 (18 Mar) as Fed uncertainty and energy risks intensified. Short-term measures confirmed persistent demand for protection around macro catalysts.</p> <p >By Friday, volatility eased slightly after expiry-related flows, but the broader regime remains elevated, with options still pricing meaningful index moves and sensitivity to headlines.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse:</strong> volatility is stable, but structurally elevated and macro-driven.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead</strong><br /> Key triggers shift from central banks to data. PMI, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment will determine whether realised volatility catches up with implied. If oil stabilises, vol could compress; if macro surprises persist, short-dated vol is likely to reprice higher first.<br /> The sharp cross-asset reversal on de-escalation headlines reinforces that volatility remains event-driven. Short-dated measures are likely to stay sensitive to geopolitical news, with rapid repricing in either direction.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p ><strong>Protection remained dominant, but markets did not fully de-risk.</strong><br /> Across the week, options flow continued to favour downside protection, particularly in the largest growth names where confirmed-opening hedging structures dominated. That points more to ongoing risk management than outright bearish conviction, as investors maintained exposure while guarding against macro shocks. The shift was most visible mid-week, as oil and rate uncertainty intensified and demand for protection increased.</p> <p >Outside of tech, positioning was more balanced. Energy and metals retained constructive flows, especially in selected equities and miners, but upside participation was consistently paired with hedging. Financials added a different dynamic, with flow skewed toward income strategies, suggesting expectations of range-bound conditions rather than strong directional moves.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse:</strong> investors stayed invested, but conviction remained selective and consistently hedged.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead</strong><br /> Watch whether protection demand persists into a lighter macro week. A decline in hedging flow — especially in large-cap growth — would signal stabilisation, while continued put demand or short-dated hedging would confirm that macro risk is still dominating positioning.<br /> A sustained easing in geopolitical risk could prompt partial unwinding of downside protection, but uncertainty around the durability of any de-escalation suggests investors may continue to favour hedged structures.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p ><strong>Crypto tracked macro, with bitcoin showing relative strength.</strong><br /> Bitcoin held near $74K early in the week before drifting toward the $67–70K range, outperforming Ethereum and altcoins, which showed clearer weakness. ETF flows turned from supportive to mixed-to-negative, reflecting more cautious institutional positioning.</p> <p >Options activity confirmed this tone, with hedging in crypto-linked equities and ETF products limiting upside conviction.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse:</strong> bitcoin remains resilient, but broader crypto sentiment is fragile.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead</strong><br /> Crypto direction will hinge on macro stability, not crypto-specific catalysts. Watch ETF flows closely—renewed inflows would signal re-risking, while continued outflows would confirm a defensive regime. Correlation with equities remains high.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p ><strong>Bond markets repriced sharply toward inflation risk.</strong><br /> Yields fell early in the week before reversing decisively. The US 10-year moved from around 4.23% (16 Mar) to above 4.40% by Friday, while the 2-year approached 3.90%, reflecting a shift toward higher-for-longer expectations.</p> <p >European yields followed, with Bund yields above 3.00%, as markets reconsidered the ECB path amid energy-driven inflation concerns.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse: </strong>bonds have moved from pricing cuts to defending against inflation.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead</strong><br /> Import price data and consumer sentiment will be critical. Any sign that energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations could push yields higher again. Conversely, softer data could stabilise rates, particularly at the long end.<br /> Lower oil prices could ease inflation expectations and provide temporary relief for bond yields, but durability depends on whether energy markets stabilise.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p ><strong>Energy strength and metals weakness defined the week.</strong><br /> Oil remained elevated, with supply disruptions reinforcing inflation concerns despite intermittent pullbacks. Refined products continued to signal tightness, confirming that the shock is structural rather than headline-driven.</p> <p >Metals moved in the opposite direction. Gold broke below key levels and saw a sharp decline, while copper and silver weakened on growth concerns and liquidation pressure.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse: </strong>commodities split—energy signals inflation, metals signal stress.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead </strong><br /> The key variable remains Middle East developments and supply flows. Oil direction will dictate cross-asset sentiment. Watch refinery margins and diesel spreads—these remain the clearest indicators of real supply stress.<br /> The recent sharp drop in oil on de-escalation signals shows how quickly supply risk can be repriced, but disrupted flows and tight product markets suggest volatility will remain elevated even if tensions ease.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p ><strong>FX markets reflected rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.</strong><br /> The US dollar weakened early in the week before recovering as yields rose. EURUSD traded in wide ranges, while USDJPY remained volatile amid yield shifts and central bank positioning.</p> <p >Safe-haven behaviour was inconsistent. The Swiss franc failed to attract strong flows, while the Norwegian krone strengthened on energy exposure, highlighting the dominance of rate and commodity dynamics.</p> <p ><em><strong>Market pulse: </strong>FX is driven by yield spreads and energy exposure, not risk aversion alone.</em></p> <p ><strong>Looking ahead</strong><br /> Watch rate differentials and commodity moves. Energy-linked currencies remain sensitive to oil, while USD direction will depend on yields. Any stabilisation in rates could weaken the dollar again.</p> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li>Energy shock reshaped inflation expectations across markets.</li> <li>Equities weakened globally, with Europe and Asia most exposed.</li> <li>Volatility elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.</li> <li>Options flow defensive, but not capitulative.</li> <li>Bond yields surged, repricing policy expectations.</li> <li>Commodities diverged sharply between energy and metals.</li> <li>FX driven by rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.</li> </ul> <div contenteditable="false"><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p >Last week confirmed that markets are no longer trading on isolated themes. Energy, inflation, and policy are now tightly linked, and that linkage is driving cross-asset behaviour.</p> <p >The next phase depends less on central banks and more on whether macro data confirm that the energy shock is feeding into the real economy. Until then, markets are likely to remain reactive, selective, and structurally hedged.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. 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16 March 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass <br /> </strong></h1> <h4 data-start="199" data-end="249" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="199" data-end="249">16 March 2026 (recap week of 9 to 13 March 2026)</strong></h4> <hr /> <h2 data-start="251" data-end="280" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><strong>Energy risk reshaped the macro narrative.</strong> Markets spent the week reacting to renewed Middle East tensions and a sharp rebound in oil prices, pushing inflation risks back into focus and triggering repricing across assets. Equities moved in waves of relief rallies and renewed risk aversion, while bond yields climbed and volatility stayed elevated.</p> <p>Digital assets held relatively firm and options flows showed investors maintaining exposure but increasingly adding portfolio hedges. With oil volatility now feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy outlooks, investors ended the week cautious and focused on the next round of macro catalysts.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>AI strength balanced oil-driven macro fears.</strong> US equities swung between optimism and caution. The S&P 500 rose early in the week before retreating as Brent crude moved back toward the $100 area and Treasury yields climbed.</p> <p >Technology remained the strongest pocket of the market. Oracle rallied on AI-related guidance, while semiconductor names such as Nvidia, Intel and Micron benefited from continued demand tied to AI infrastructure spending.</p> <p >Outside the US, European and Asian equities proved more sensitive to energy shocks. The STOXX 600 rebounded early in the week before oil-driven inflation fears returned. Semiconductor leaders such as ASML and Infineon rallied early, while energy majors including Shell and BP benefited from higher crude prices.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> AI remains a structural support for equities, but oil prices are driving short-term sentiment.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >Equity markets now face a catalyst-heavy week. The Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will influence rate expectations, while Micron’s earnings will test whether the AI investment cycle remains intact.</p> <p >Investors will also watch consumer-facing earnings and global trade signals from companies such as FedEx and Dollar Tree. Together with oil prices, these developments could determine whether equities stabilise or remain headline-driven.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Geopolitics kept volatility elevated.</strong> Market volatility remained firm as geopolitical risk drove trading behaviour. The VIX hovered near the high‑20s during the week, while short-dated volatility indicators stayed elevated as investors continued buying protection against sudden market moves.</p> <p >Options pricing suggested sizeable expected index swings as markets reacted to oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Rather than fading, volatility remained structurally supported by macro risk.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> volatility stayed elevated as geopolitics replaced macro data as the main market driver.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >The upcoming Federal Reserve decision could become the next volatility catalyst. Powell’s comments on inflation and energy-driven price pressures will likely influence volatility expectations across equities and rates.</p> <p >If oil markets stabilise, volatility may gradually decline. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, however, could keep volatility elevated.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Options flow prioritised portfolio protection.</strong> Options activity showed consistent demand for downside hedging across indices, financials and rate-sensitive ETFs. Institutional investors appeared focused on protecting portfolios against macro shocks rather than positioning aggressively for upside.</p> <p >Commodity-related options presented a more balanced picture. Energy producers attracted selective upside positioning, while metals miners saw accumulation-style flows reflecting ongoing interest in precious metals.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> investors stayed invested but layered systematic hedges across macro-sensitive sectors.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >Options positioning will likely react to upcoming macro catalysts. Central-bank communication and inflation data could influence hedging demand, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.</p> <p >If geopolitical risks persist, demand for downside protection across indices and financials may remain elevated.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Crypto proved resilient amid macro turbulence.</strong> Digital assets held up relatively well compared with equities. Bitcoin traded near the $70k range during much of the week before rising toward the mid‑$70k area late in the period.</p> <p >Institutional demand remained a key driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fresh inflows during the week, while Ethereum-linked products also attracted demand.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> ETF demand continues to anchor institutional interest in crypto.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >Crypto markets will likely track broader liquidity conditions and risk sentiment. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve or rising bond yields could pressure digital assets in the short term.</p> <p >However, continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption remain supportive structural factors.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Bond markets repriced inflation risk.</strong> Government bond yields moved higher during the week as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns. US Treasury yields climbed as markets priced fewer near-term rate cuts.</p> <p >European yields also rose as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy prices. Credit spreads widened briefly before stabilising, reflecting more cautious risk appetite.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> bond markets are adjusting to a renewed inflation narrative.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >The Federal Reserve meeting will be the key driver for bond markets. Any signal that policymakers are concerned about energy-driven inflation could push yields higher.</p> <p >Inflation data and economic indicators will also help determine whether markets continue to price fewer rate cuts.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Oil dominated the commodity complex.</strong> Energy markets led commodity moves as supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward the $100–$105 range.</p> <p >Strategic reserve releases were coordinated in response to the disruption, highlighting the scale of supply risks. Precious metals showed mixed performance as safe-haven demand competed with rising yields and a stronger dollar.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> oil became the central macro variable for global markets.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >Energy markets will remain the key variable for commodities. Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments and the impact of reserve releases on global supply conditions.</p> <p >Gold and silver may continue reacting to interest-rate expectations and dollar strength rather than pure safe-haven demand.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What happened</h4> <p ><strong>Dollar strength returned on safe-haven demand.</strong> Currency markets reflected rising risk aversion. The US dollar strengthened during the week, while the euro weakened as energy risks weighed on European sentiment.</p> <p >The Japanese yen hovered near intervention-sensitive levels against the dollar, while commodity currencies showed mixed performance.</p> <p ><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX markets reacted primarily to energy risk and safe-haven flows.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead</h4> <p >Currency markets will focus on the Federal Reserve decision and evolving interest-rate expectations.</p> <p >Energy price developments may continue influencing currency performance, particularly for energy-importing economies such as Europe and parts of Asia.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p >The week demonstrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape financial markets through energy prices. Oil’s rebound revived inflation concerns and triggered repricing across equities, bonds and currencies.</p> <p >Investors have not abandoned risk assets, but positioning has become more cautious, with increased hedging across macro-sensitive sectors. With central-bank decisions, inflation data and major earnings ahead, markets enter the new week balancing structural growth themes with heightened macro uncertainty.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <p><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-march-2026-09032026" data-id="9B2D40CD646443F2913EAAEC8E4B9693" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="#" data-id="6319652D974541EB8A1424FBBF6D22A0" data-type="Article">Global Markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war (podcast)</a> | 9 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/when-markets-look-chaotic-emotions-matter-more-than-portfolios-09032026" data-id="E030F3439BE54475B2A2FE62756A68B3" data-type="Article">When markets look chaotic emotions matter more than portfolios</a> | 9 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/iran-headlines-market-turbulence-and-options---a-practical-map-of-what-to-trade-04032026" data-id="B9499764A541434CA747CD588E94BEA8" data-type="Article">Iran headlines market turbulence and options - a practical map of what to trade</a> | 4 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/mrmarket-04032026" data-id="FBEB6BA5E8BD47C0A65785371B622A55" data-type="Article">Oil, inflation, and a sudden “no thanks” to risky bets: Mr. market flips the sign</a> | 4 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/iran-escalation-the-portfolio-playbook-03032026" data-id="79C7FEFC9AF947BCA9277904926CA537" data-type="Article">Iran escalation The portfolio playbook</a> | 3 March 2026<br /> <a href="#" data-id="38E9FB1CF8E74469A91ADB5178F8ADDC" data-type="Article">Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict</a> | 2 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/forex/the-macro-take-iran-conflict-what-to-watch-02032026" data-id="63DD3109055B48CD829B5313029BA315" data-type="Article">The Macro Take Iran conflict what to watch</a> | 2 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---2-march-2026-02032026" data-id="7728A82EE89C4C158DD180055215BF7B" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/conflit-iran-01032026" data-id="3569B2A40D17496AB0439F243603C1C6" data-type="Article">Iran escalation: Quick thoughts on markets</a> | 1 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---23-february-2026-24022026" data-id="CFA331CFBD86489AA7A0B82A9590F32C" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-february-2026-16022026" data-id="598FB67DB18B42A2A3FABD8D7E8DFD23" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026</a> </p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – <br /> the Iran shock rewrites the market narrative</strong></h1> <h4 data-start="199" data-end="249" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="199" data-end="249">9 March 2026 (recap week of 2 to 6 March 2026)</strong></h4> <hr /> <h2 data-start="251" data-end="280" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="281" data-end="666" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="281" data-end="327">A geopolitical shock became a macro shock.</strong></h4> <p data-start="281" data-end="666">The week of 2 to 6 March began as a geopolitical story and ended as a full market repricing. As tensions involving Iran escalated and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices sharply higher, investors were forced to reassess inflation, growth and the path of central bank policy. <br /> <br /> <span>That shift was felt across asset classes. Equities swung between relief rallies and renewed selloffs, bond yields moved higher, volatility stayed elevated and the US dollar regained safe-haven support. By the end of the week, markets were no longer treating the conflict as a regional event, but as a potential global inflation and growth shock. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Timeline of market reactions to the Iran shock: equities weaken early in the week, oil and yields rise mid-week, volatility spikes by Friday, and markets enter the new week focused on the oil surge, US inflation data and key earnings catalysts. Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="1068" data-end="1749" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="1068" data-end="1145">Equities traded less on fundamentals and more on the price of disruption.</span></h4> <p data-start="1068" data-end="1749">In the US, markets spent the week reacting to oil, yields and geopolitics rather than following a clean earnings-led script. The S&P 500 was roughly flat on 2 March, fell 0.9% on 3 March, rebounded 0.8% on 4 March, and then lost momentum again as oil prices rose and the labour-market backdrop softened into week-end. Technology names still offered selective support, with AI-linked companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell attracting buying interest on company-specific developments, but that leadership was not enough to stabilise the broader market.</p> <p data-start="1751" data-end="2369">Outside the US, the Iran shock was even more visible. European equities were hit by renewed concerns over imported energy costs, with the STOXX 600 falling 1.6% on 2 March and a further 3.1% on 3 March before a mid-week rebound. The FTSE 100 was relatively more resilient thanks to its energy exposure, while continental markets were weighed down by industrials, transport and cyclicals. In Asia, South Korea saw the most violent swings, Japan remained vulnerable as an energy importer, and Hong Kong held up better as large-cap technology names offset some of the wider pressure. </p> <p data-start="2371" data-end="2503"><em data-start="2371" data-end="2503"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: equities increasingly traded as a function of oil, inflation and geopolitical risk rather than company fundamentals.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="2505" data-end="2527" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Options sentiment</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="2528" data-end="3000" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="2528" data-end="2598">The options market pointed to protection first, conviction second.</span></h4> <p data-start="2528" data-end="3000">Across the week, options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection. Broad market positioning leaned defensive, with persistent hedging in index exposure and a more cautious tone in high-beta growth areas. The message from the largest growth stocks also deteriorated through the week, as investors increasingly favoured defensive structures over straightforward upside participation.</p> <p data-start="3002" data-end="3443">The more nuanced picture appeared in energy and metals. In energy, investors still showed willingness to own upside in selected names, but broad sector exposure remained hedged. In metals, positioning stayed constructive, particularly in miners, but was paired with downside protection in the large precious-metals ETFs. Taken together, the signal was not capitulation. It was a market that remained invested, but wanted much more insurance.</p> <p data-start="3445" data-end="3559"><em data-start="3445" data-end="3559"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: investors did not abandon risk, but they consistently paid to protect against further instability.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="3561" data-end="3576" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Volatility</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="3577" data-end="4112" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="3577" data-end="3645">Volatility rose because oil turned geopolitics into policy risk.</span></h4> <p data-start="3577" data-end="4112">The week’s volatility profile stayed elevated throughout. The VIX closed at 21.44 on 2 March, rose to 23.57 on 3 March, eased to 21.15 on 4 March, and then closed Friday at 29.49 as the weekend escalation drove another round of demand for near-term hedges. Short-dated volatility measures remained firm, and downside skew stayed in place, showing that investors were still more focused on protection than on chasing a rebound. </p> <p data-start="4114" data-end="4543">That matters because the rise in volatility was not simply about equity weakness. It reflected uncertainty over energy supply, inflation and central-bank reaction functions. By Monday 9 March, options markets were implying a weekly move of nearly 2.9% in the S&P 500, while downside options remained richer than upside exposure, consistent with a market still bracing for unstable headlines. </p> <p data-start="4545" data-end="4659"><em data-start="4545" data-end="4659"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: volatility stayed high because the market saw Iran as an ongoing macro event, not a one-day shock.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="4661" data-end="4680" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Digital assets</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="4681" data-end="5160" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="4681" data-end="4769">Crypto held up better than many risk assets, but did not decouple from macro stress.</span></h4> <p data-start="4681" data-end="5160">Bitcoin and Ethereum were relatively stable through the week, with Bitcoin trading broadly between the high $67,000s and low $72,000s, while Ethereum held near the $2,000 to $2,130 range. Early in the week, ETF demand helped cushion the asset class, particularly in bitcoin exposure, but that support became less consistent as macro risk intensified. </p> <p data-start="5162" data-end="5671">By the end of the week, the tone had softened. Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative, while Ethereum exposure remained somewhat better supported. That left digital assets looking more resilient than some high-beta equity segments, but still sensitive to the same drivers affecting broader markets: oil, yields and risk appetite. The listed crypto ecosystem also remained under pressure as investors reduced exposure to more cyclical and momentum-driven pockets of the market. </p> <p data-start="5673" data-end="5775"><em data-start="5673" data-end="5775"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: crypto showed resilience, but ETF support softened rather than removed macro pressure.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="5777" data-end="5794" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Fixed income</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="5795" data-end="6317" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="5795" data-end="5863">Bond markets repriced inflation risk faster than recession risk.</span></h4> <p data-start="5795" data-end="6317">US Treasury yields moved higher through much of the week as markets reassessed the inflation implications of rising oil and gas prices. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4.05% early in the week to roughly 4.14% by 6 March, while the 2-year yield moved back above 3.55%. That shift reflected a market becoming less confident that lower rates would arrive quickly if the energy shock proved persistent. </p> <p data-start="6319" data-end="6759">The same pattern appeared elsewhere. German Bund yields rose as Europe faced renewed imported-energy risk, UK gilt yields moved higher as inflation concerns returned, and Japan’s yield curve steepened as longer-dated government bonds came under pressure. Credit markets also reflected a more cautious tone, with high-yield spreads widening before partially retracing during the mid-week risk rebound. </p> <p data-start="6761" data-end="6872"><em data-start="6761" data-end="6872"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: fixed income markets treated Iran less as a growth scare and more as an inflation complication.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="6874" data-end="6890" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Commodities</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="6891" data-end="7388" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="6891" data-end="6954">Commodities were the clearest expression of the Iran shock.</span></h4> <p data-start="6891" data-end="7388">Energy dominated the week’s macro narrative. Brent crude rose sharply through the week and then surged at the Monday 9 March open, briefly nearing $120 a barrel as markets confronted the scale of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of tighter supply in crude, diesel, jet fuel and LNG. Reuters reported that oil rose roughly 25% on 9 March, its highest level since mid-2022. </p> <p data-start="7390" data-end="7892">Natural gas and refined products reinforced the same message. European gas prices spiked early in the week, while broader commodity markets began to price in the inflationary effects of higher energy costs. Gold’s performance was more complex. It initially softened as the dollar strengthened and deleveraging hit hard assets, but the underlying strategic case for precious metals remained intact as markets weighed the risk of a broader stagflationary backdrop. </p> <p data-start="7894" data-end="8019"><em data-start="7894" data-end="8019"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: commodities were not a side story; they were the mechanism through which the conflict reached global markets.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="8021" data-end="8036" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Currencies</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="8037" data-end="8561" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="8037" data-end="8100">The dollar regained its role as the cleanest liquid refuge.</span></h4> <p data-start="8037" data-end="8561">Foreign-exchange moves were more orderly than those seen in equities or commodities, but the direction was still clear. The US dollar strengthened as investors sought liquidity and safety, with EURUSD falling toward 1.1530 during the week before stabilising near 1.1600. USDJPY also pushed toward the upper end of its recent range as higher energy prices and rising global yields complicated the yen’s safe-haven role. </p> <p data-start="8563" data-end="8907">Emerging-market currencies were more visibly pressured by weaker risk sentiment, while sterling also came under pressure as the oil shock raised questions for energy-importing economies. Reuters reported that sterling fell sharply on 9 March as the oil surge forced investors to reconsider the inflation outlook and the likely policy response.</p> <p data-start="8909" data-end="9004"><em data-start="8909" data-end="9004"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: in this phase of the shock, the dollar remained the market’s preferred shelter.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="9006" data-end="9024" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Key takeaways</strong></span></h2> <ul data-start="9025" data-end="9678"> <li data-start="9025" data-end="9115"> Iran became the week’s dominant macro driver rather than just a geopolitical backdrop. </li> <li data-start="9116" data-end="9208"> Oil, gas and shipping disruption were the key transmission channels into global markets. </li> <li data-start="9209" data-end="9300"> Equities remained unstable, with Europe and energy-importing Asian markets hit hardest. </li> <li data-start="9301" data-end="9393"> Options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection across broad markets. </li> <li data-start="9394" data-end="9485"> Energy and metals positioning stayed selective and hedged rather than outright bullish. </li> <li data-start="9486" data-end="9580"> Bond yields rose as markets repriced inflation risk more aggressively than recession risk. </li> <li data-start="9581" data-end="9678"> Digital assets proved relatively resilient, though still sensitive to the same macro pressures. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-start="9680" data-end="9719" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Looking ahead (9 to 13 March 2026)</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="9720" data-end="10216" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="9720" data-end="9831">The key question now is whether the Iran shock remains an energy event or becomes a broader policy problem.</span></h4> <p data-start="9720" data-end="10216">The coming week is heavy with macro and earnings catalysts, but the biggest issue is whether the oil spike proves temporary or starts to feed more deeply into inflation and rate expectations. That distinction matters because it will determine whether markets can continue to look through the conflict or whether earnings expectations and policy assumptions need to be revised lower.</p> <p data-start="10218" data-end="10663">The first major test is US CPI on Wednesday 11 March. That report arrives just before the next Federal Reserve meeting and will be watched closely for any sign that inflation was already proving sticky even before the latest energy surge. Later in the week, the PCE price index will offer a second important inflation checkpoint. If both releases stay firm, the market may conclude that the inflation problem is becoming broader than oil alone.</p> <p data-start="10665" data-end="11006">Earnings also matter. Oracle is due to report on 10 March and Adobe on 12 March, providing fresh read-through for AI spending, software demand and broader confidence in growth leadership. That matters because if core growth sectors start to wobble at the same time as oil stays elevated, the market backdrop becomes materially more fragile.</p> <p data-start="11008" data-end="11219">Housing, trade and consumer data will add texture, but the main checklist remains straightforward: oil, inflation, central-bank expectations and whether risk assets can continue to compartmentalise the conflict.</p> <p data-start="11221" data-end="11343"><em data-start="11221" data-end="11343"><strong>Market pulse</strong>: the week ahead will show whether this remains an energy shock or becomes a wider regime shift for markets.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="11345" data-end="11360" class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Conclusion</strong></span></h2> <h4 data-start="11361" data-end="11877" class="article-heading--4"><span data-start="11361" data-end="11458">The first week of March ended with a different market narrative than the one it started with.</span></h4> <p data-start="11361" data-end="11877">What began as a geopolitical escalation involving Iran evolved into a broader repricing across oil, volatility, yields, currencies and equity risk. That matters because it changes how investors interpret every new headline. This is no longer only about regional instability. It is about whether the conflict injects a fresh inflation impulse into a market that was still hoping for lower rates and calmer conditions.</p> <p data-start="11879" data-end="12176">Markets did not respond with indiscriminate panic, but they did respond with a clear increase in hedging and a preference for selective exposure over broad conviction. That is usually what markets look like when investors still see opportunities, but trust the backdrop less with each passing day.<br /> </p> <hr /> </div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <p> - <a href="#" data-id="6319652D974541EB8A1424FBBF6D22A0" data-type="Article">Global Markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war (podcast)</a> | 9 March 2026<br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/when-markets-look-chaotic-emotions-matter-more-than-portfolios-09032026" data-id="E030F3439BE54475B2A2FE62756A68B3" data-type="Article">When markets look chaotic emotions matter more than portfolios</a> | 9 March 2026<br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/iran-headlines-market-turbulence-and-options---a-practical-map-of-what-to-trade-04032026" data-id="B9499764A541434CA747CD588E94BEA8" data-type="Article">Iran headlines market turbulence and options - a practical map of what to trade</a> | 4 March 2026<br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/mrmarket-04032026" data-id="FBEB6BA5E8BD47C0A65785371B622A55" data-type="Article">Oil, inflation, and a sudden “no thanks” to risky bets: Mr. market flips the sign</a> | 4 March 2026<br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/iran-escalation-the-portfolio-playbook-03032026" data-id="79C7FEFC9AF947BCA9277904926CA537" data-type="Article">Iran escalation The portfolio playbook</a> | 3 March 2026<br /> - <a href="#" data-id="38E9FB1CF8E74469A91ADB5178F8ADDC" data-type="Article">Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict</a> | 2 March 2026<br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/forex/the-macro-take-iran-conflict-what-to-watch-02032026" data-id="63DD3109055B48CD829B5313029BA315" data-type="Article">The Macro Take Iran conflict what to watch</a> | 2 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---2-march-2026-02032026" data-id="7728A82EE89C4C158DD180055215BF7B" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026</a><br /> - <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/conflit-iran-01032026" data-id="3569B2A40D17496AB0439F243603C1C6" data-type="Article">Iran escalation: Quick thoughts on markets</a> | 1 March 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---23-february-2026-24022026" data-id="CFA331CFBD86489AA7A0B82A9590F32C" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-february-2026-16022026" data-id="598FB67DB18B42A2A3FABD8D7E8DFD23" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026</a> </p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 2 March 2026</strong></h1> <h4 data-start="51" data-end="92" class="article-heading--4"><em data-start="51" data-end="90">(Recap week of 23 to 27 February 2026)</em></h4> <hr data-start="94" data-end="97" /> <h2 data-start="91" data-end="121" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="158" data-end="528" class="article-heading--4" >AI volatility, shifting rate expectations and rising geopolitical tension shaped the final week of February. </h4> <p data-start="158" data-end="528" >Markets oscillated between earnings-driven optimism and renewed caution as policy headlines and sector narratives kept dispersion high. By Friday, bond yields had fallen to fresh cycle lows while equity momentum cooled, setting a more fragile tone into March.<br /> <em><span ><strong>Market pulse</strong>: confidence returned mid-week, but conviction faded into the weekend.</span></em></p> <hr data-start="614" data-end="617" /> <h2 data-start="619" data-end="633" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="635" data-end="1112" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="635" data-end="685">US: AI leadership tested, but breadth improved</strong></h4> <p data-start="635" data-end="1112" >US equities swung sharply through the week. After an early selloff on AI disruption fears (23 February), the S&P 500 rebounded to 6,946.13 on 25 February before easing back to 6,908.86 by 26 February as Nvidia fell 5.5% despite strong results. Microsoft (+3.0% on 25 February) and Palantir (+4.2%) supported the mid-week recovery, while sharp earnings reactions in Salesforce and Block underscored rising stock dispersion.<br /> <span >Falling Treasury yields provided valuation support, but widening high-yield spreads suggested investors were becoming more selective.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: leadership remains tech-heavy, but earnings volatility is increasing.</em></span></p> <h4 data-start="1336" data-end="1694" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="1336" data-end="1397">Europe and Asia: resilience in Europe, divergence in Asia</strong></h4> <p data-start="1336" data-end="1694" >European equities pushed to fresh highs mid-week, with the Euro STOXX 50 reaching 6,172.36 on 25 February and the FTSE 100 touching a record 10,910.55 on 27 February. Buyback announcements supported select UK names, while parts of continental Europe stayed sensitive to softer sentiment data.<br /> <span >In Asia, Japan and South Korea outperformed on chip strength, while Hong Kong remained more volatile ahead of China’s policy meetings.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: Europe shows resilience, but Asia remains policy- and tech-sensitive.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="1919" data-end="1922" /> <h2 data-start="1924" data-end="1940" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="1942" data-end="2274" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="1942" data-end="1989">Volatility cooled mid-week, then stabilised</strong></h4> <p data-start="1942" data-end="2274" >The VIX fell from 21.01 on 23 February to 17.93 on 25 February as equities recovered. By 26 February, it stood at 18.63, signalling that hedging demand had eased but not disappeared. Weekly implied moves narrowed from roughly ±118 points early in the week to ±42 points by expiry.<br /> <span >Elevated skew readings indicate investors still prioritise downside protection.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: volatility has eased from stress levels but hasn’t returned to comfort.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="2446" data-end="2449" /> <h2 data-start="2451" data-end="2500" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market sentiment based on options flow data</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="2502" data-end="3125" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="2502" data-end="2553">Positioning shifts from expansion to protection</strong></h4> <p data-start="2502" data-end="3125" >Last week’s options activity painted a coherent picture across asset classes: investors largely stayed invested, but with a noticeably stronger emphasis on protection and structure. Broad index and ETF flows showed a clear preference for downside hedges and volatility overlays, signalling that portfolio insurance moved higher up the priority list. Within mega-cap leadership, positioning shifted from straightforward upside participation toward more buffered exposure, suggesting that even in core growth names, risk was being actively managed rather than expanded.</p> <p data-start="3127" data-end="3471" >At the same time, metals continued to attract constructive interest as a diversification sleeve, while energy exposure was maintained but increasingly expressed through defined-risk structures. The overall message for investors is not one of panic or capitulation, but of recalibration: capital remains deployed, yet more deliberately hedged.<br /> <em ><strong>Market pulse</strong>: participation remains intact, but conviction is now expressed through protection rather than leverage.</em></p> <hr data-start="3591" data-end="3594" /> <h2 data-start="3596" data-end="3616" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p data-start="3618" data-end="3992" ><strong data-start="3618" data-end="3662">ETF flows stabilise despite price swings</strong><br data-start="3662" data-end="3665" /> Bitcoin traded between roughly $63,100 on 23 February and $68,176 on 25 February before easing back below $68,000 into Friday. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$254 million on 26 February after earlier outflows, with IBIT leading, while Ethereum ETFs also saw modest inflows.<br /> <span >Institutional participation therefore appears steady, even as prices react to broader macro shifts.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: flows are constructive, but digital assets remain tied to macro sentiment.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="4187" data-end="4190" /> <h2 data-start="4192" data-end="4210" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="4212" data-end="4524" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="4212" data-end="4241">Yields fall to cycle lows</strong></h4> <p data-start="4212" data-end="4524" >US Treasuries rallied into week-end. The 10-year yield closed at 3.94% on 27 February, marking the first weekly close below 4.00% since mid-2024, while the 2-year yield touched levels below 3.41%. High-yield spreads widened to 291 basis points by Friday, the widest of the year.<br /> <span >In Europe, softer inflation readings reinforced expectations that tightening cycles are nearing completion.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: bond markets are pricing slower growth and more cautious policy expectations.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="4730" data-end="4733" /> <h2 data-start="4735" data-end="4752" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="4754" data-end="4987" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="4754" data-end="4799">Gold steady, oil sensitive to geopolitics</strong></h4> <p data-start="4754" data-end="4987" >Gold traded in a tight range near 5,200 per ounce during the week before breaking higher at the start of March. Silver showed sharper swings, briefly clearing 91 before consolidating.<br /> <span >Crude oil remained sensitive to developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, trading near multi-month highs late in the week. Energy markets are now the clearest barometer of geopolitical risk.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: commodities are increasingly driven by geopolitics rather than demand alone.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="5284" data-end="5287" /> <h2 data-start="5289" data-end="5305" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="5307" data-end="5607" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="5307" data-end="5355">Dollar mixed, sterling pressured by politics</strong></h4> <p data-start="5307" data-end="5607" >The US dollar fluctuated around 1.1800 in EURUSD through most of the week, while USDJPY reversed sharply on shifting Bank of Japan signals. Sterling weakened after a UK by-election unsettled political expectations, with EURGBP moving above 0.8750.<br /> <span >Commodity-linked currencies stayed sensitive to oil’s move.<br /> <em><strong></strong></em></span><span ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: FX markets are balancing rate differentials against political risk.</em></span></p> <hr data-start="5755" data-end="5758" /> <h2 data-start="5760" data-end="5779" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul data-start="5780" data-end="6120" > <li data-start="5780" data-end="5837"> AI leadership intact, but earnings volatility rising. </li> <li data-start="5838" data-end="5897"> European indices resilient; Asia more policy-sensitive. </li> <li data-start="5898" data-end="5968"> US 10-year yield closed below 4.00% for first time since mid-2024. </li> <li data-start="5969" data-end="6018"> Volatility cooled, but skew remains elevated. </li> <li data-start="6019" data-end="6072"> Bitcoin ETF inflows resumed despite price swings. </li> <li data-start="6073" data-end="6120"> Oil risk premium building amid Iran tensions. </li> </ul> <hr data-start="6122" data-end="6125" /> <h2 data-start="6127" data-end="6174" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 March 2026)</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="6176" data-end="6616" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="6176" data-end="6210">Geopolitics takes centre stage</strong></h4> <p data-start="6176" data-end="6616" >The US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend materially raise geopolitical risk. Markets will focus on three transmission channels: oil supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance and freight costs, and second-round inflation expectations. If higher energy prices persist, they could complicate the recent decline in bond yields and alter expectations for central bank policy paths.</p> <p ><span >For deeper analysis on the conflict and its market implications, readers can consult our dedicated coverage published this weekend and Monday: </span></p> <ul > <li> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/conflit-iran-01032026" data-id="3569B2A40D17496AB0439F243603C1C6" data-type="Article">the equities note on the Iran conflict (1 March)</a>, </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/forex/the-macro-take-iran-conflict-what-to-watch-02032026" data-id="63DD3109055B48CD829B5313029BA315" data-type="Article">the macro take on what to watch (2 March)</a>, </li> <li><a href="#" data-id="BB60EB36D55E4D91B6CAF28A7AE6B17E" data-type="Article">the investor Q&A on the Iran-US escalation (2 March)</a>, and </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/podcast/smc-podcast-02-march-02032026" data-id="831CF05074854FAA98B0114721EA8421" data-type="Article">the latest Saxo Market Call podcast (2 March)</a>. <br /> <br /> These pieces explore cross-asset implications in greater detail.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4" ><span data-start="7027" data-end="7056">US labour market in focus</span></h4> <p data-start="7027" data-end="7426" > Friday’s US employment report for February is the key macro catalyst. January showed job growth of 130,000, with earlier months revised lower. Markets will assess whether hiring momentum is stabilising or slowing further. ADP employment data mid-week, ISM surveys and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide additional context on growth and pricing pressures.</p> <p data-start="7428" data-end="7529" >If payrolls surprise on either side, rate expectations and equity volatility could reprice quickly.</p> <h4 data-start="7531" data-end="7904" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="7531" data-end="7564">Earnings and consumer signals</strong></h4> <p data-start="7531" data-end="7904" >After Nvidia’s volatile reaction, semiconductor earnings remain central. Broadcom and Marvell will be watched for AI demand commentary, while CrowdStrike provides a read on software resilience. Retail earnings from Target, Costco and Best Buy should offer insight into consumer demand trends as markets await updated retail sales data.</p> <p data-start="7906" data-end="8029" ><em><strong>Market pulse</strong>: geopolitics sets the tone, but labour data and earnings will determine whether caution deepens or stabilises.</em></p> <hr data-start="8031" data-end="8034" /> <h2 data-start="8036" data-end="8052" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p data-start="8054" data-end="8382" >The final week of February highlighted a market still anchored by technology leadership but increasingly sensitive to macro and geopolitical crosscurrents. Falling bond yields and resilient European equities provide some stability, yet widening credit spreads and elevated skew signal cautious positioning beneath the surface.</p> <p data-start="8384" data-end="8596" >As March begins, the combination of Middle East escalation, US labour data and heavyweight earnings could quickly reshape risk appetite. Staying diversified and attentive to cross-asset signals remains essential.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---23-february-2026-24022026" data-id="CFA331CFBD86489AA7A0B82A9590F32C" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-february-2026-16022026" data-id="598FB67DB18B42A2A3FABD8D7E8DFD23" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-february-2026-09022026" data-id="206BD62AA012447088A0A33ECD1CF4B3" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---2-february-2026-02022026" data-id="B4A7E15D030E4A09B0D365BEF9A72DEE" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026---recap-and-insight-27012026" data-id="2A754053075C473A86273F1892B69A4F" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026-26012026" data-id="C2A9F6302CFF42DB8A15D54B9B593656" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---19-january-2026-19012026" data-id="6182E90473DE439D829750DF7539F7BF" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---12-january-2026-12012026" data-id="DC6555C79502408087E13FCC1B7D585C" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/the-saxo-weekly-market-compass---15-december-2025-15122025" data-id="35D6DF5D562345939C820FD4ABD4B7E3" data-type="Article">The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025</a> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict</h1> <p>Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> </div> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>This is an oil-and-shipping shock first,</strong> and a growth-and-earnings story second.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Higher oil can lift inflation and delay rate cuts, </strong>making bonds a less perfect hedge.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Long-term investors win by sticking to process,</strong> not by trying to trade the headline.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span>The weekend escalation involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran pulls markets back into “risk-off” mode. Risk-off means investors reduce exposure to shares and other risky assets, and lean into perceived safe havens.</span></p> <p><span>Below is a Q&A built for long-term investors, focused on what matters most and what to watch.<br /> <br /> </span><strong >The first domino is not oil, it is the cost of moving oil</strong></p> </h3> <p><strong><span>Q: What just happened?</span></strong><span><br /> Reports point to a sharp military escalation and a jump in maritime risk around the Gulf, with tanker operations disrupted near the Strait of Hormuz. Even limited disruption matters because the strait is a narrow passage that carries a large share of global seaborne energy.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Q: Why do investors keep talking about the Strait of Hormuz?</span></strong><span><br /> Because it is a choke point. When a choke point gets risky, markets price two things at once: the barrel, and the delivery. Delivery costs include insurance, rerouting, delays, and “war-risk premia” which is the extra cost to operate in a war zone. Shipping stocks can pop if investors expect freight rates and war-risk surcharges to rise, even though disruption also raises costs and uncertainty. <br /> <br /> The move is basically the market saying “rates and surcharges may rise faster than costs, at least at first”. When shipping lanes get risky, carriers often add war-risk and disruption surcharges, and global freight rates can tighten if capacity gets rerouted. That can be positive for large operators even though the situation is operationally messy. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Q: What does “sticky oil” change for a long-term investor?</span></strong><span><br /> It changes the inflation path more than it changes long-term demand. Higher energy costs behave like a tax on consumers and many businesses. Over time, that can squeeze profit margins, cool spending, and pressure earnings expectations, especially in energy-intensive sectors.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The second domino is inflation, and that is where the central bank headache begins</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Q: Does higher oil automatically mean higher interest rates?</span></strong><span><br /> Not automatically. But it can slow the improvement in inflation and make central banks more cautious about cutting rates quickly. The risk is not just higher petrol bills today. The risk is higher inflation expectations tomorrow.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Q: Are government bonds still a safe haven in this kind of shock?</span></strong><span><br /> Sometimes, but less reliably than in a pure growth scare. If markets treat this mainly as an inflation shock, bond yields can rise even while shares fall, which weakens the classic “shares down, bonds up” cushion. That is why some investors diversify their hedges across several assets rather than expecting one instrument to do all the work.</span></p> <p><span>A small example from the prior session: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ticker TLT, closed at 90.82 USD, up 0.4%. That is supportive, but it is not a guarantee of protection if inflation fears dominate.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The third domino is leadership rotation, not a permanent change in the rules</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Q: Which areas tend to feel the pain first?</span></strong><span><br /> Usually the ones hit by a double whammy of higher fuel and weaker demand. Airlines and travel-linked businesses can face both, plus route disruption. Trade-exposed <span data-start="14" data-end="27">cyclicals </span>especially <span data-start="39" data-end="114">industrials, consumer discretionary importers, and global manufacturers, </span>often get hit early as delays and higher freight/insurance costs squeeze margins and disrupt supply chains.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Q: Who tends to look steadier, and why?</span></strong><span><br /> Energy-linked exposures can benefit from higher oil prices, but they also carry their own headline risk. Defence and security spending can reprice higher as governments focus on protection and resilience, although individual days can still be volatile.</span></p> <p><span>In the prior close, the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF, ticker ITA, closed at 243.72 USD, down 1.0%. That looks counter-intuitive until you remember the market often sells broadly first, then differentiates later.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Q: What about gold, the dollar, and “safe-haven currencies”?</span></strong><span><br /> Gold often acts like portfolio insurance because it is less tied to any single country’s earnings outlook. The prior close fits that pattern, with GLD up 2.7%. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc often strengthen in risk-off episodes too. As simple proxies, the Japanese yen trust ETF, ticker FXY, closed at 58.83 USD, up 0.2%, and the Swiss franc trust ETF, ticker FXF, closed at 114.88 USD, up 0.1%.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch while the headlines churn</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The main risk is escalation that keeps shipping constrained for longer than markets expect. Watch for signs like prolonged tanker queues, wider insurance surcharges, and more rerouting. The second risk is macro. If oil stays elevated, inflation can linger, and rate cuts can become harder to deliver. The third risk is policy surprise, including sanctions, export controls, or emergency measures that alter energy flows and supply chains quickly.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Investor playbook</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Treat the first 24 to 72 hours as price discovery,</strong> not a verdict on the next five years.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Stress-test your portfolio for higher oil and higher inflation, </strong>not just lower growth.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Prefer diversification </strong>across regions and sectors over concentrated “war trades”.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Set simple triggers</strong> to review risk, such as oil staying elevated for weeks, not days, and inflation expectations rising.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Back to basics, with a side of turbulence</span></strong></h3> <p><span>In the end, markets usually return to cash flows and fundamentals. But the path matters. This episode is a reminder that geopolitics can raise the cost of doing business, even when demand stays intact.<br /> <br /> For long-term investors, the goal is not to predict the next headline. It is to build a portfolio that can handle several outcomes without forcing you to sell at the worst moment. In other words, keep your process boring. The news will do its best to be exciting for you.</span></p> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <p class="text--body"><em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> <br /> The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p> <span> </span> <span> </span> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span> <span>Stocks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 24 Feb 2026 06:02:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 23 February 2026</strong></h1> <h4 data-start="51" data-end="92" class="article-heading--4"><em data-start="51" data-end="90">(Recap week of 16 to 20 February 2026)</em></h4> <hr data-start="94" data-end="97" /> <h2 data-start="91" data-end="121" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="122" data-end="632" class="article-heading--4" ><strong data-start="122" data-end="191">Rates, geopolitics and trade policy shaped cross-asset direction.</strong></h4> <p data-start="122" data-end="632" >Global markets navigated a week defined by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, resilient but slowing US growth data, renewed Middle East tensions and late-week US tariff headlines. Equities remained broadly resilient despite higher yields, while volatility stayed elevated but orderly. Commodities responded quickly to geopolitical developments, and digital assets tracked macro liquidity conditions rather than internal crypto narratives.</p> <p data-start="634" data-end="731" >It was a week where policy tone mattered more than positioning, and markets adjusted accordingly.</p> <hr data-start="733" data-end="736" /> <h2 data-start="738" data-end="751" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="753" data-end="1279" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="753" data-end="819">US: resilience despite higher yields and policy crosscurrents.</strong></h4> <p data-start="753" data-end="1279" >US equities traded in wide intraday ranges but held firm overall. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on 18 February and added 0.7% on 20 February, even as Fed minutes (19 February) signalled caution on rate cuts and Q4 GDP printed at 1.4% (20 February). Nvidia and Amazon advanced on 18 February, reflecting continued AI-related demand, while Deere surged 11.7% on 20 February after raising guidance. Walmart slipped 1.4% the same day after issuing a cautious outlook.</p> <h4 data-start="1281" data-end="1882" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="1281" data-end="1372">Europe and Asia: local strength, selective earnings pressure and softer Hong Kong tech.</strong></h4> <p data-start="1281" data-end="1882" >In the UK, the FTSE 100 reached a record 10,556 on 18 February, supported by banks and defence shares including BAE Systems. On the continent, the STOXX 50 rose 1.2% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.8% on 20 February as luxury and industrial names led. France’s LVMH rose 4.4% and Hermès 3.6%, while Airbus fell 6.8% after trimming production targets. In Italy, Enel declined 3.6% following tax changes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended down 1.1% on 20 February as technology stocks cooled ahead of Nvidia’s results.</p> <p data-start="1884" data-end="1973" ><strong data-start="1884" data-end="1901"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> equity markets rotated across sectors rather than retreating from risk.</em></p> <hr data-start="1975" data-end="1978" /> <h2 data-start="1980" data-end="1995" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="1997" data-end="2276" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="1997" data-end="2026">Elevated, but controlled.</strong></h4> <p data-start="1997" data-end="2276" >The VIX hovered around 20 throughout the week, easing to 19.62 on 18 February before firming again into the PCE release on 20 February. Short-term volatility gauges cooled mid-week, then re-tightened as inflation and tariff headlines approached.</p> <p data-start="2278" data-end="2513" >Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves in a ±1–2% range into expiry, consistent with event hedging rather than systemic stress. Skew remained supported for much of the week, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.</p> <p data-start="2515" data-end="2582" ><strong data-start="2515" data-end="2532"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> investors are hedging events, not pricing crisis.</em></p> <hr data-start="2584" data-end="2587" /> <h2 data-start="2589" data-end="2637" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market sentiment based on options flow data</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="2639" data-end="3116" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="2639" data-end="2673">Prudence without capitulation.</strong></h4> <p data-start="2639" data-end="3116" >Across equities and metals, last week’s options activity pointed to disciplined risk management. In broad indices and mega-cap technology, confirmed opening flow leaned heavily toward near-term downside protection, signalling that institutional participants were unwilling to remain unhedged. At the same time, selective longer-dated upside positioning and structured call activity suggest exposure was being recalibrated rather than cut.</p> <p data-start="3118" data-end="3445" >In gold and silver, upside participation was visible, but accompanied by hedges in mining equities and targeted downside structures. The aggregate message was not panic, but caution: investors appear to be staying invested while actively pricing in volatility in an environment where macro and headline risks remain elevated.</p> <p data-start="3447" data-end="3513" ><strong data-start="3447" data-end="3464"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> positioning reflects recalibration, not retreat.</em></p> <hr data-start="3515" data-end="3518" /> <h2 data-start="3520" data-end="3539" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="3541" data-end="3793" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="3541" data-end="3576">Liquidity-driven consolidation.</strong></h4> <p data-start="3541" data-end="3793" >Bitcoin traded largely between USD 67,000 and 69,000 during the week before slipping toward USD 65,700 on 23 February as tariff uncertainty resurfaced. Ethereum held near USD 2,000 before easing toward USD 1,880.</p> <p data-start="3795" data-end="4065" >ETF flows showed divergence rather than broad withdrawal, suggesting reallocation within the space. Crypto-linked equities broadly tracked US risk sentiment, reinforcing the view that digital assets remain closely tethered to macro conditions and US rate expectations.</p> <p data-start="4067" data-end="4143" ><strong data-start="4067" data-end="4084"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> crypto continues to behave as a high-beta liquidity proxy.</em></p> <hr data-start="4145" data-end="4148" /> <h2 data-start="4150" data-end="4167" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="4169" data-end="4488" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="4169" data-end="4215">Yields test and rebound around key levels.</strong></h4> <p data-start="4169" data-end="4488" >The US 10-year Treasury yield approached the 4.00% threshold early in the week before rebounding toward 4.10% after hawkish Fed minutes and a weak 20-year auction on 19 February. Two-year yields backed up toward 4.47%, keeping “higher for longer” expectations in play.</p> <p data-start="4490" data-end="4668" >In Japan, strong demand at a five-year JGB auction (17 February) pushed yields lower, while January CPI slowed to 1.5% (20 February), reinforcing a measured Bank of Japan path.</p> <p data-start="4670" data-end="4758" ><strong data-start="4670" data-end="4687"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> bond markets remain the primary transmission channel for macro shifts.</em></p> <hr data-start="4760" data-end="4763" /> <h2 data-start="4765" data-end="4781" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="4783" data-end="5232" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="4783" data-end="4840">Energy and precious metals reflect geopolitical risk.</strong></h4> <p data-start="4783" data-end="5232" >Brent crude rose toward USD 70–71 during the week as US–Iran tensions intensified, before easing modestly. Gold traded within a USD 4,860–5,140 range and briefly moved above USD 5,100 late in the week as tariff uncertainty revived defensive demand. Silver rebounded after mid-week weakness, while copper softened amid rising inventories and seasonal disruptions linked to Lunar New Year.</p> <p data-start="5234" data-end="5355" ><strong data-start="5234" data-end="5251"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> geopolitical headlines are supporting defensive commodities, while growth-sensitive signals stay mixed.</em></p> <hr data-start="5357" data-end="5360" /> <h2 data-start="5362" data-end="5377" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="5379" data-end="5672" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="5379" data-end="5418">Dollar swings with rates and trade.</strong></h4> <p data-start="5379" data-end="5672" >The US dollar strengthened mid-week following hawkish Fed minutes, with EURUSD dipping below 1.1800 and GBPUSD breaking under 1.3500 between 19 and 20 February. The tone shifted again on 23 February as renewed tariff headlines weighed on the dollar.</p> <p data-start="5674" data-end="5823" >USDJPY traded in a 153–155 range as yield spreads fluctuated, while the Australian dollar outperformed following strong labour data on 19 February.</p> <p data-start="5825" data-end="5923" ><strong data-start="5825" data-end="5842"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> foreign exchange remains rate-led, with trade policy adding tactical volatility.</em></p> <hr data-start="5925" data-end="5928" /> <h2 data-start="5930" data-end="5948" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul data-start="5950" data-end="6352" > <li data-start="5950" data-end="6027"> US equities showed resilience despite hawkish Fed minutes and softer GDP. </li> <li data-start="6028" data-end="6095"> European markets were supported by defence and luxury strength. </li> <li data-start="6096" data-end="6151"> Volatility remained elevated but contained near 20. </li> <li data-start="6152" data-end="6205"> US yields retested the 4% zone before rebounding. </li> <li data-start="6206" data-end="6279"> Oil and gold reflected geopolitical risk rather than demand optimism. </li> <li data-start="6280" data-end="6352"> Digital assets consolidated in line with macro liquidity conditions. </li> </ul> <hr data-start="6354" data-end="6357" /> <h2 data-start="6359" data-end="6402" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead (23 to 28 February 2026)</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="6404" data-end="6938" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="6404" data-end="6462">Earnings in focus: AI, housing and corporate spending.</strong></h4> <p data-start="6404" data-end="6938" >Nvidia reports on 25 February, a key test for the AI capital expenditure narrative and broader technology valuations. Home Depot reports on 24 February, with housing demand, pricing power and inventory commentary likely to be closely watched. Canadian banks and Dell later in the week extend the read-through to credit conditions and enterprise IT spending, while Berkshire Hathaway’s results on Saturday offer a broader barometer of conglomerate-level economic exposure.</p> <h4 data-start="6940" data-end="7307" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="6940" data-end="6971">Policy and macro catalysts.</strong></h4> <p data-start="6940" data-end="7307" >President Trump delivers the State of the Union on 24 February, with trade policy and fiscal framing likely to influence market tone following recent tariff-related legal developments. Federal Reserve speakers, including Governor Waller, remain on the calendar, keeping rate expectations in focus ahead of March policy discussions.</p> <p data-start="7309" data-end="7581" >On the data front, the Case-Shiller home price index, weekly jobless claims and January PPI are key releases. A surprise in producer inflation could quickly feed through to front-end yields and the US dollar, with knock-on effects for growth equities and digital assets.</p> <ul > <li data-start="7583" data-end="7808" ><strong>For long-term investors</strong>, the emphasis remains on earnings durability in a higher-rate environment.</li> <li data-start="7583" data-end="7808" ><strong>For active investors</strong>, event sequencing around earnings and macro data may create tactical volatility windows across sectors.</li> </ul> <p data-start="7810" data-end="7924" ><strong data-start="7810" data-end="7827"><em>Market pulse:</em></strong><em> rates and forward guidance will likely determine whether resilience extends or risk is repriced.</em></p> <hr data-start="7926" data-end="7929" /> <h2 data-start="7931" data-end="7946" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p data-start="7948" data-end="8250" >The week of 16 to 20 February highlighted a market balancing firm macro data, cautious central bank messaging and renewed trade policy uncertainty. Equities absorbed crosscurrents through sector rotation, bonds reasserted their influence over valuations, and volatility remained elevated but orderly.</p> <p data-start="8252" data-end="8473" >With major earnings and political communication ahead, positioning appears tactical rather than complacent. Diversification and disciplined risk management remain essential as markets navigate policy-driven crosscurrents.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-february-2026-16022026" data-id="598FB67DB18B42A2A3FABD8D7E8DFD23" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-february-2026-09022026" data-id="206BD62AA012447088A0A33ECD1CF4B3" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---2-february-2026-02022026" data-id="B4A7E15D030E4A09B0D365BEF9A72DEE" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026---recap-and-insight-27012026" data-id="2A754053075C473A86273F1892B69A4F" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026-26012026" data-id="C2A9F6302CFF42DB8A15D54B9B593656" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---19-january-2026-19012026" data-id="6182E90473DE439D829750DF7539F7BF" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---12-january-2026-12012026" data-id="DC6555C79502408087E13FCC1B7D585C" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/the-saxo-weekly-market-compass---15-december-2025-15122025" data-id="35D6DF5D562345939C820FD4ABD4B7E3" data-type="Article">The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025</a> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 16 Feb 2026 14:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="50" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 16 February 2026</strong></h1> <h4 data-start="51" data-end="92" class="article-heading--4"><em data-start="51" data-end="90">(Recap week of 9 to 13 February 2026)</em></h4> <hr data-start="94" data-end="97" /> <h2 data-start="99" data-end="129" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <p data-start="131" data-end="290" >Global markets navigated a week of shifting narratives, as AI optimism, earnings dispersion and softer US inflation pulled sentiment in different directions.</p> <p data-start="292" data-end="577" >Early gains in US and European equities gave way to profit-taking and renewed technology-sector caution, while bond yields reset lower after a cooler CPI print. Volatility rose but remained orderly, and digital assets consolidated as ETF flows turned selective rather than one-sided.</p> <hr data-start="579" data-end="582" /> <h2 data-start="584" data-end="598" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="600" data-end="1097" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="600" data-end="658">US: data sensitivity and earnings dispersion dominate.</strong></h4> <p data-start="600" data-end="1097" >US indices opened firmer, with the S&P 500 at 6,964 on 9 February and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.8% (10 February) as AI-linked shares rebounded. However, flat retail sales (11 February) and mixed earnings guidance prompted selective risk reduction. A stronger-than-expected 130k payroll print (12 February) briefly lifted yields, before CPI reintroduced caution. By 13 February, the Dow had fallen 1.3%, the S&P 500 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.0%.</p> <p data-start="1099" data-end="1472" >Single-name dispersion was pronounced. Oracle rose 9.6% (9 February) and Spotify 14.8% (10 February), while Cisco fell 12.3% and AppLovin 19.7% (13 February). Softer CPI at 2.4% year-on-year (reported 16 February) steadied sentiment into the close.<br data-start="1347" data-end="1350" /> <em data-start="1350" data-end="1470"><strong><br /> Market pulse</strong>: US equities remain highly reactive to inflation and earnings guidance, with leadership rotating quickly.</em></p> <h4 data-start="1474" data-end="1953" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="1474" data-end="1542"><hr /> Europe and Asia: records fade as stock selection drives returns.</strong></h4> <p data-start="1474" data-end="1953" >European equities followed Wall Street higher early in the week, with the STOXX 600 touching 621.58 (11 February) before easing to 618.52 (13 February). Earnings divergence drove performance: Siemens Energy gained 8.4% (12 February) and Ahold Delhaize 11.5%, while Adyen fell 21.9% and DSV declined 10.5% (13 February). UK Q4 GDP rose just 0.1% (13 February), reinforcing a modest domestic growth backdrop.</p> <p data-start="1955" data-end="2303" >In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.9% to 56,363 (9 February) before moderating later in the week. Hong Kong traded mixed into Lunar New Year closures, while mainland indices were steadier on policy support signals.<br data-start="2167" data-end="2170" /> <em data-start="2170" data-end="2301"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: outside the US, performance reflects earnings dispersion and macro cross-currents rather than broad trend momentum.</em></p> <hr data-start="2305" data-end="2308" /> <h2 data-start="2310" data-end="2326" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="2328" data-end="2675" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="2328" data-end="2357">Elevated, but structured.</strong></h4> <p data-start="2328" data-end="2675" >The VIX rose from 17.36 (9 February) to 20.82 (12 February) as CPI and payroll risks approached, closing at 20.60 into the US holiday (13 February data). Short-dated measures such as VIX1D moved above 21, indicating tactical hedging demand, while SKEW near 142–143 showed ongoing appetite for downside protection.</p> <p data-start="2677" data-end="2970" >Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves of roughly ±65 to ±82 points mid-week, expanding toward ±128 points into the next expiry. That reflects event risk rather than disorderly positioning.<br data-start="2872" data-end="2875" /> <em data-start="2875" data-end="2968"><strong><br /> Market pulse</strong>: investors are hedged, but volatility remains contained within defined ranges.</em></p> <hr data-start="2972" data-end="2975" /> <h2 data-start="2977" data-end="3026" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market sentiment based on options flow data</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="3028" data-end="3378" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="3028" data-end="3078">Constructive engagement, framed by protection.</strong></h4> <p data-start="3028" data-end="3378" >Options flow across indices and large-cap technology indicated continued participation in risk assets, accompanied by deliberate downside protection. Index-level hedging demand remained steady, while positioning in mega-cap technology combined selective upside exposure with near-term insurance.</p> <p data-start="3380" data-end="3830" >In metals, particularly gold, flows were two-sided, blending upside participation with structured protection. The overall picture does not signal panic or wholesale de-risking. Instead, it reflects disciplined exposure management in an environment where macro catalysts and sector dispersion remain active drivers.<br data-start="3694" data-end="3697" /> <em data-start="3697" data-end="3828"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: capital remains deployed, but increasingly through risk-defined structures rather than open-ended directional bets.</em></p> <hr data-start="3832" data-end="3835" /> <h2 data-start="3837" data-end="3857" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="3859" data-end="4158" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="3859" data-end="3902">Consolidation amid selective ETF flows.</strong></h4> <p data-start="3859" data-end="4158" >Bitcoin traded largely between the mid- and high-$60,000s during the week, while Ethereum hovered near $1,950–2,040. ETF flows were mixed: IBIT recorded both inflows (+$26.5m on 10 February) and later outflows, while ETHA saw net redemptions mid-week.</p> <p data-start="4160" data-end="4516" >Crypto-linked equities experienced sharper swings, with Coinbase down 7.9% (13 February) before stabilising. The pattern suggests tactical repositioning rather than capitulation, with macro data and rate expectations guiding sentiment.<br data-start="4395" data-end="4398" /> <em data-start="4398" data-end="4514"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: digital assets are consolidating, awaiting clearer macro direction to re-establish trend conviction.</em></p> <hr data-start="4518" data-end="4521" /> <h2 data-start="4523" data-end="4541" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="4543" data-end="4863" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="4543" data-end="4589">Disinflation supports a yield reset lower.</strong></h4> <p data-start="4543" data-end="4863" >Treasuries rallied into week’s end. The 10-year yield fell toward 4.05% (13 February), while the 2-year closed below 3.41%, its lowest since 2022. Earlier in the week, payroll strength had lifted the 10-year above 4.20%, underscoring rate sensitivity to data surprises.</p> <p data-start="4865" data-end="5216" >In Europe, the German 2-year yield held near 2.07%, reflecting restrained expectations for rapid ECB easing. Japanese long-dated bonds saw strong demand mid-week before a modest curve steepening following softer Q4 GDP.<br data-start="5084" data-end="5087" /> <em data-start="5087" data-end="5214"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: bond markets are cautiously leaning toward a slower easing path, conditional on sustained inflation moderation.</em></p> <hr data-start="5218" data-end="5221" /> <h2 data-start="5223" data-end="5240" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="5242" data-end="5542" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="5242" data-end="5299">Energy weakens, gold supported, agriculture diverges.</strong></h4> <p data-start="5242" data-end="5542" >Brent crude slipped below USD 68 by week’s end after failing to sustain moves above USD 70, as inventory builds and ebbing geopolitical risk weighed. Gold remained supported near USD 5,000, benefitting from softer yields late in the week.</p> <p data-start="5544" data-end="5905" >Sugar fell to 13.5 cents/lb amid improved supply prospects and weaker consumption trends, while wheat climbed to a three-month high on crop concerns and short covering. Commodity performance reflected positioning shifts rather than structural demand changes.<br data-start="5802" data-end="5805" /> <em data-start="5805" data-end="5903"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: commodities are trading tactically, driven by macro sensitivity and flow dynamics.</em></p> <hr data-start="5907" data-end="5910" /> <h2 data-start="5912" data-end="5928" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <h4 data-start="5930" data-end="6198" class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="5930" data-end="5982">Yield differentials continue to anchor FX moves.</strong></h4> <p data-start="5930" data-end="6198" >The yen strengthened early in the week, with USDJPY falling toward 152.27 (12 February), before rebounding above 153 as the dollar stabilised. EURUSD traded around 1.19, reflecting shifting US rate expectations.</p> <p data-start="6200" data-end="6481" >Sterling was volatile following weaker UK GDP, while AUDUSD briefly tested 0.7150 before retreating. FX movements largely tracked bond market repricing rather than independent risk themes.<br data-start="6388" data-end="6391" /> <em data-start="6391" data-end="6479"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: currency markets remain yield-led, with the yen a key volatility driver.</em></p> <hr data-start="6483" data-end="6486" /> <h2 data-start="6488" data-end="6507" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul data-start="6509" data-end="6866" > <li data-start="6509" data-end="6579"> US equities volatile as AI narrative shifts and CPI cools to 2.4%. </li> <li data-start="6580" data-end="6638"> VIX elevated near 20, but positioning remains orderly. </li> <li data-start="6639" data-end="6690"> US 2-year yield below 3.41%, lowest since 2022. </li> <li data-start="6691" data-end="6762"> Bitcoin consolidates; ETF flows selective rather than capitulative. </li> <li data-start="6763" data-end="6819"> Brent below USD 68; gold supported by softer yields. </li> <li data-start="6820" data-end="6866"> Yen swings mirror rate repricing dynamics. </li> </ul> <hr data-start="6868" data-end="6871" /> <h2 data-start="6873" data-end="6914" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead (16–20 February 2026)</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="6916" data-end="7152" > <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="6916" data-end="6955">A shortened week concentrates risk.</strong></h4> US markets are closed on Monday 16 February for Presidents’ Day, compressing liquidity into four trading sessions. Holiday-thinned conditions often amplify intraday moves when trading resumes.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-start="7154" data-end="7706" > <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="7154" data-end="7196">Policy insight and inflation in focus.</strong></h4> The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday 18 February, offering insight into internal debate around inflation progress and the timing of potential rate cuts. On Friday 20 February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Personal Income and Outlays for December, including the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Confirmation of moderating price pressures would reinforce last week’s yield decline; a surprise could quickly reprice the front end.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-start="7708" data-end="8075" > <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong data-start="7708" data-end="7742">Earnings dispersion continues.</strong></h4> Walmart reports on Thursday, providing an important read on US consumer resilience and pricing power. Deere offers insight into agricultural and industrial demand. Analog Devices and Palo Alto Networks will test the durability of AI hardware and cybersecurity spending, while Airbus and Rio Tinto add a European industrial lens.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-start="8077" data-end="8361" >For active investors, event-driven volatility is likely to persist. For long-term investors, the trajectory of inflation and bond yields remains the primary anchor.<br data-start="8241" data-end="8244" /> <em data-start="8244" data-end="8359"><br /> <strong>Market pulse</strong>: a compressed week with clustered catalysts raises the probability of sharper cross-asset reactions.</em></li> </ul> <hr data-start="8363" data-end="8366" /> <h2 data-start="8368" data-end="8384" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p data-start="8386" data-end="8854" >Last week demonstrated how quickly sentiment can pivot between growth optimism and disruption concerns. Softer inflation has steadied bond markets and offered tentative support to equities, yet volatility remains elevated as investors assess the durability of disinflation and earnings momentum. With PCE data and FOMC minutes ahead in a shortened week, markets are likely to remain reactive, range-bound and sensitive to policy nuance rather than headline optimism.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-february-2026-09022026" data-id="206BD62AA012447088A0A33ECD1CF4B3" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---2-february-2026-02022026" data-id="B4A7E15D030E4A09B0D365BEF9A72DEE" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026---recap-and-insight-27012026" data-id="2A754053075C473A86273F1892B69A4F" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026-26012026" data-id="C2A9F6302CFF42DB8A15D54B9B593656" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---19-january-2026-19012026" data-id="6182E90473DE439D829750DF7539F7BF" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---12-january-2026-12012026" data-id="DC6555C79502408087E13FCC1B7D585C" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/the-saxo-weekly-market-compass---15-december-2025-15122025" data-id="35D6DF5D562345939C820FD4ABD4B7E3" data-type="Article">The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025</a> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="49" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo weekly market compass – 9 February 2026</strong></h1> <p data-start="50" data-end="87"><em data-start="50" data-end="87">Recap week of 2 to 6 February 2026</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-start="90" data-end="120" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <p data-start="121" data-end="639" >February opened with sharp cross-asset swings before markets found a tentative footing into the end of the week. Equity sentiment oscillated between AI-driven sell-offs and forceful rebounds, volatility stayed elevated but orderly, and commodities experienced extreme, liquidity-led moves. At the same time, currencies and rates reflected a reassessment of central bank timing rather than a clear macro break.<br data-start="530" data-end="533" /> <em data-start="533" data-end="548"><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em> investors are recalibrating risk, not abandoning it. </p> <hr data-start="641" data-end="644" /> <h2 data-start="646" data-end="693" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities – US: rotation, not capitulation</strong></h2> <p data-start="694" data-end="1190" ><strong data-start="694" data-end="751">Earnings discipline returns as the key market filter.</strong><br data-start="751" data-end="754" /> US equities endured a volatile but ultimately stabilising week. Technology weakness early on, driven by concerns around AI monetisation and capital expenditure, gave way to a sharp rebound into Friday (3–6 February). Semiconductor stocks were central to both moves, selling off on cautious guidance before rebounding strongly as dip buyers returned. The Dow’s relative strength highlighted ongoing rotation rather than broad de-risking.</p> <p data-start="1192" data-end="1577" >Away from chips, earnings dispersion remained pronounced. Amazon slipped after flagging a step-up in infrastructure spending, keeping margin discipline in focus, while healthcare outperformed as resilient earnings from large pharmaceutical names supported defensives (5 February).<br data-start="1472" data-end="1475" /> <em data-start="1475" data-end="1490"><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em> US equities are rotating internally, with selectivity replacing blanket risk appetite.</p> <hr data-start="1579" data-end="1582" /> <h2 data-start="1584" data-end="1645" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities – Europe and Asia: local stories take the lead</strong></h2> <p data-start="1646" data-end="2185" ><strong data-start="1646" data-end="1692">Policy patience meets stock-level reality.</strong><br data-start="1692" data-end="1695" /> European markets were broadly rangebound, but index stability masked sharp stock-level moves. Germany and the Netherlands saw selective rebounds in industrials and technology, while healthcare sentiment remained sensitive after weaker medium-term guidance from Novo Nordisk earlier in the week (4–5 February). In the UK, equities faced a mixed backdrop as sterling weakness following a dovish Bank of England decision weighed on domestic names, even as exporters found support (6 February).</p> <p data-start="2187" data-end="2648" >Asia outperformed on balance. Japan extended record gains following a decisive election outcome that reinforced expectations for fiscal support and pro-growth policy, lifting domestically focused stocks (6–9 February). China and Hong Kong remained more cautious, with tech shares sensitive to global risk swings despite improving services data.<br data-start="2531" data-end="2534" /> <em data-start="2534" data-end="2549"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> outside the US, equity performance is increasingly shaped by local policy and earnings narratives.</p> <hr data-start="2650" data-end="2653" /> <h2 data-start="2655" data-end="2698" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility – elevated, but controlled</strong></h2> <p data-start="2699" data-end="3116" ><strong data-start="2699" data-end="2741">Event risk keeps protection in demand.</strong><br data-start="2741" data-end="2744" /> Volatility remained a defining feature of the week, but without signs of disorder. The VIX fluctuated between the mid-teens and low 20s, peaking mid-week as technology stocks sold off before easing back as equities stabilised (6–9 February). Short-dated volatility stayed firm, signalling persistent demand for near-term protection rather than fear of a systemic drawdown.</p> <p data-start="3118" data-end="3393" >Options markets consistently priced meaningful expected moves around key data and earnings, reinforcing a backdrop where timing risk matters. Volatility compressed into the end of the week, but did not fully unwind.<br data-start="3333" data-end="3336" /> <em data-start="3336" data-end="3351"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> volatility is being managed, not ignored.</p> <hr data-start="3395" data-end="3398" /> <h2 data-start="3400" data-end="3449" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market sentiment based on options flow data</strong></h2> <p data-start="3450" data-end="3991" ><strong data-start="3450" data-end="3501">Positioning favours resilience over conviction.</strong><br data-start="3501" data-end="3504" /> Last week’s options activity suggests investors are staying invested but becoming more deliberate about risk. Rather than stepping away from markets, positioning points to a preference for maintaining exposure while actively preparing for larger and more frequent price swings. This shows up in the increased use of protection and hedging alongside continued upside participation, a mix that typically appears when long-term confidence remains intact but near-term uncertainty is rising.</p> <p data-start="3993" data-end="4471" >Across asset classes, this behaviour implies a market where direction matters less than resilience. Investors appear to be planning for uneven performance, sharp rotations, and headline-driven moves rather than a smooth, trend-led advance. The signal from options markets is not panic, but prudence: opportunities remain, yet the cost of being wrong is being taken more seriously.<br data-start="4373" data-end="4376" /> <em data-start="4376" data-end="4391"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> investors are engaged, but risk management has become central to participation.</p> <hr data-start="4473" data-end="4476" /> <h2 data-start="4478" data-end="4533" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets – stabilisation without conviction</strong></h2> <p data-start="4534" data-end="4930" ><strong data-start="4534" data-end="4583">Crypto follows macro risk, not its own cycle.</strong><br data-start="4583" data-end="4586" /> Digital assets spent the week attempting to stabilise after sharp drawdowns. Bitcoin held a wide range between the mid-$60,000s and low-$70,000s, while Ethereum hovered near the $2,000 area, moving largely in step with equity volatility (4–6 February). Price action continues to reflect macro risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific drivers.</p> <p data-start="4932" data-end="5348" >ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows mid-week before partial stabilisation, while Ethereum-linked products experienced selective selling rather than wholesale exits. Crypto-linked equities and miners remained more volatile than spot prices, highlighting ongoing deleveraging.<br data-start="5249" data-end="5252" /> <em data-start="5252" data-end="5267"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> crypto is steadier, but confidence remains conditional on calmer equity markets.</p> <hr data-start="5350" data-end="5353" /> <h2 data-start="5355" data-end="5405" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income – labour data revives the hedge</strong></h2> <p data-start="5406" data-end="5817" ><strong data-start="5406" data-end="5448">Rates react sharply, then consolidate.</strong><br data-start="5448" data-end="5451" /> US Treasury yields fell sharply late in the week as weaker job openings, rising claims, and softer risk sentiment shifted focus back to growth risks (6 February). The 2-year yield briefly dipped below 3.45%, while the 10-year tested the 4.15% area before rebounding as equities stabilised. Credit spreads widened modestly, consistent with caution rather than stress.</p> <p data-start="5819" data-end="6085" >In Europe, yields were steadier as the ECB reiterated a data-dependent stance. In Japan, government bond yields pushed higher earlier in the week on fiscal concerns before finding resistance.<br data-start="6010" data-end="6013" /> <em data-start="6013" data-end="6028"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> bonds are regaining relevance as a portfolio stabiliser.</p> <hr data-start="6087" data-end="6090" /> <h2 data-start="6092" data-end="6149" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities – leverage flush dominates price action</strong></h2> <p data-start="6150" data-end="6542" ><strong data-start="6150" data-end="6199">Liquidity, not fundamentals, drives extremes.</strong><br data-start="6199" data-end="6202" /> Commodities delivered the most dramatic moves of the week. Precious metals whipsawed violently after a historic sell-off, with gold recovering above USD 5,000 while silver remained vulnerable to liquidity gaps and forced de-risking (3–6 February). Positioning data showed aggressive reductions in speculative longs, amplifying price swings.</p> <p data-start="6544" data-end="6818" >Oil prices eased as US–Iran talks reduced immediate supply risk, while natural gas remained exceptionally volatile after record storage withdrawals and weather-driven reversals.<br data-start="6721" data-end="6724" /> <em data-start="6724" data-end="6739"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> commodity markets are clearing excess leverage, but stability remains elusive.</p> <hr data-start="6820" data-end="6823" /> <h2 data-start="6825" data-end="6877" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies – central bank signals set the tone</strong></h2> <p data-start="6878" data-end="7270" ><strong data-start="6878" data-end="6923">Policy divergence, not growth, drives FX.</strong><br data-start="6923" data-end="6926" /> Currency markets reflected shifting rate expectations. Sterling weakened sharply after a dovish Bank of England hold brought forward expectations for rate cuts (6 February). The yen strengthened later in the week following Japan’s election and renewed official vigilance, while the US dollar traded unevenly as yields swung with risk sentiment.</p> <p data-start="7272" data-end="7512" >Commodity-linked currencies were volatile, with the Australian dollar initially supported by an RBA hike before giving back gains as global risk appetite softened.<br data-start="7435" data-end="7438" /> <em data-start="7438" data-end="7453"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> FX remains a clean expression of relative policy outlooks.</p> <hr data-start="7514" data-end="7517" /> <h2 data-start="7519" data-end="7538" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul data-start="7539" data-end="7915" > <li data-start="7539" data-end="7628"> Equity markets rotated sharply, led by technology volatility and earnings dispersion. </li> <li data-start="7629" data-end="7715"> Volatility stayed elevated but orderly, with active use of short-dated protection. </li> <li data-start="7716" data-end="7780"> Options flows point to engagement with tighter risk control. </li> <li data-start="7781" data-end="7855"> Bonds reacted strongly to labour data, restoring their defensive role. </li> <li data-start="7856" data-end="7915"> Commodities saw extreme, liquidity-driven price action. </li> </ul> <hr data-start="7917" data-end="7920" /> <h2 data-start="7922" data-end="7970" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – data and earnings converge</strong></h2> <p data-start="7971" data-end="8592" ><strong data-start="7971" data-end="8025">Macro releases and results may reset expectations.</strong><br data-start="8025" data-end="8028" /> The coming week brings a dense and potentially market-defining calendar. The delayed US January employment report is due mid-week, followed by the January CPI inflation print on Friday. Together, these releases will be critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, particularly after recent signals of cooling labour demand. Investors will look closely at wage growth, participation rates, and core inflation momentum to assess whether disinflation is progressing quickly enough to reopen the door to rate cuts later in the year.</p> <p data-start="8594" data-end="8911" >US retail sales data will provide an additional lens on consumer resilience following the holiday period, helping investors gauge whether softer labour indicators are feeding through to spending. Alongside the data, a heavy slate of central bank speakers could influence rates and currency markets if guidance shifts.</p> <p data-start="8913" data-end="9578" >Earnings remain an equally important catalyst. Technology investors will focus on Cisco for insight into enterprise and AI infrastructure demand, while consumer names such as Coca-Cola and McDonald’s will test defensive growth narratives and pricing power. Results from autos, pharmaceuticals, travel and digital platforms, including Ford, Moderna, Airbnb and Shopify, add further scope for sector rotation. Crypto-linked equities remain sensitive to both macro data and digital asset flows, keeping cross-asset correlations high.<br data-start="9443" data-end="9446" /> <em data-start="9446" data-end="9461"><strong>Market pulse</strong>:</em> with jobs, inflation and earnings clustered together, this week could crystallise the market’s next macro narrative.</p> <hr data-start="9580" data-end="9583" /> <h2 data-start="9585" data-end="9601" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p data-start="9602" data-end="10024" >Markets ended the week on firmer ground, but confidence remains conditional. Investors are staying engaged while demanding clearer earnings delivery, calmer macro signals, and improved liquidity conditions. With labour data, inflation, and a heavy earnings slate ahead, the balance between stabilisation and renewed volatility will be tested quickly. Staying diversified and flexible remains essential as February unfolds.</p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 14:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 data-start="0" data-end="49" class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo weekly market compass – 2 February 2026</strong></h1> <p data-start="50" data-end="87"><em data-start="50" data-end="87">Recap week of 26 to 30 January 2026</em></p> <h3 data-start="89" data-end="119"><hr /> </h3> <h2 data-start="89" data-end="119" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headlines & introduction</strong></h2> <p data-start="120" data-end="643" ><strong data-start="120" data-end="228">January ended with equities still resilient, but cross-asset stress shifted decisively into commodities.</strong><br data-start="228" data-end="231" /> Markets opened the week supported by earnings and steady growth signals, then turned more cautious as policy uncertainty and a violent reversal in precious metals tightened risk discipline. Equity indices held near record levels, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased. The defining late-week development was the metals rout and the risk of spillovers into funding conditions and broader risk appetite.<br /> <em data-start="645" data-end="660" ><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em><span > risk stayed on, but conviction required protection.</span></p> <hr data-start="714" data-end="717" /> <h2 data-start="719" data-end="733" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul > <li data-start="734" data-end="1338"><strong data-start="734" data-end="813">US equities hovered near records as earnings optimism met rate sensitivity.</strong><br data-start="813" data-end="816" /> US indices oscillated around fresh highs, with the S&P 500 briefly trading above the 7,000 mark before easing into month-end. Early-week support came from AI-linked names and select mega-cap results, but tone shifted after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and attention turned to policy continuity and leadership risk. Rising yields and a firmer dollar weighed on long-duration growth late in the week, leaving the Nasdaq more exposed than the Dow as investors prioritised balance-sheet strength and earnings quality.<br /> <em data-start="1340" data-end="1355" ><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em><span > US markets stayed firm, but leadership narrowed and valuation discipline returned.</span></li> </ul> <ul > <li data-start="1440" data-end="2205"><strong data-start="1440" data-end="1518">Europe and Asia saw sharper rotations as growth data met earnings reality.</strong><br data-start="1518" data-end="1521" /> European equities ended January supported by improving activity signals, with euro area GDP expanding 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, easing recession concerns and underpinning banks and cyclicals across core markets. Stock-specific earnings dominated performance. Luxury names sold off on cautious guidance, while technology diverged sharply after SAP’s cloud outlook disappointed. UK equities were steadier, helped by defensives and energy, while Nordic markets saw pronounced single-stock volatility. In Asia, Japan underperformed as yen strength weighed on exporters, while Hong Kong extended its January rally before a sharp pullback at week’s end as global risk sentiment cooled.<br /> <em data-start="2207" data-end="2222" ><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em><span ><strong> </strong>macro improved at the margin, but earnings and global risk set direction.</span></li> </ul> <hr data-start="2298" data-end="2301" /> <h2 data-start="2303" data-end="2319" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p data-start="2320" data-end="2767" ><strong data-start="2320" data-end="2369">Surface calm masked pockets of rising stress.</strong><br data-start="2369" data-end="2372" /> Equity volatility remained contained for most of the week, with headline measures anchored in the mid-teens. Short-dated volatility reacted to the Fed decision and major earnings rather than signalling systemic fear. Late in the week, stress migrated into commodities, where forced unwinds amplified price swings. That shift unsettled broader sentiment despite stable equity volatility readings.<br /> <strong><em data-start="2769" data-end="2784" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span > volatility stayed low, but the stress point moved elsewhere.</span></p> <hr data-start="2847" data-end="2850" /> <h2 data-start="2852" data-end="2901" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market sentiment based on options flow data</strong></h2> <p data-start="2902" data-end="3617" ><strong data-start="2902" data-end="2977">Positioning stayed constructive, but risk discipline clearly tightened.</strong><br data-start="2977" data-end="2980" /> Options activity suggests investors remained engaged while becoming more selective in how exposure was expressed. Broad index positioning indicates a willingness to stay invested, but this exposure is increasingly paired with protection, highlighting the elevated priority of risk management. Among large US technology stocks, flows favoured balanced structures that combine participation with defined outcomes, including income generation and capped upside. Overall, the options market points to confidence in market resilience, alongside a clear acknowledgement that near-term event risk warrants caution rather than unhedged optimism.<br /> <strong><em data-start="3619" data-end="3634" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span ><strong> </strong>engaged participation, disciplined risk control.</span></p> <hr data-start="3685" data-end="3688" /> <h2 data-start="3690" data-end="3710" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p data-start="3711" data-end="4142" ><strong data-start="3711" data-end="3779">Crypto tracked macro liquidity rather than crypto-specific news.</strong><br data-start="3779" data-end="3782" /> Digital assets softened into month-end, moving in line with broader risk sentiment. Price action suggested gradual deleveraging rather than panic, as a firmer dollar and sensitivity to real yields weighed on demand. ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone, with selective resilience earlier in the week giving way to broader outflows as policy uncertainty rose.<br /> <strong><em data-start="4144" data-end="4159" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span ><strong> </strong>crypto stayed defensive, awaiting clearer macro signals.</span></p> <hr data-start="4218" data-end="4221" /> <h2 data-start="4223" data-end="4241" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p data-start="4242" data-end="4670" ><strong data-start="4242" data-end="4286">Bonds quietly regained defensive appeal.</strong><br data-start="4286" data-end="4289" /> Rates traded in a relatively narrow range, but directionally investors leaned toward safety as commodities collapsed. US Treasuries attracted demand as leverage was reduced across other asset classes, while longer-dated yields eased back toward key technical levels. In Japan, government bond yields stabilised after softer inflation data and reduced near-term tightening pressure.<br /> <strong><em data-start="4672" data-end="4687" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span ><strong> </strong>fixed income resumed its stabilising role.</span></p> <hr data-start="4732" data-end="4735" /> <h2 data-start="4737" data-end="4754" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p data-start="4755" data-end="5454" ><strong data-start="4755" data-end="4845">Metals broke first as leverage and margin dynamics flipped a record rally into a rout.</strong><br data-start="4845" data-end="4848" /> The week’s defining move was the collapse in precious metals following an extraordinary run. Gold and silver fell sharply after reaching record highs, with silver’s drawdown particularly severe as crowded positioning unwound. Exchange margin increases amplified the move, forcing deleveraging into thin liquidity. The impact quickly spread to listed miners and commodity-linked equities, while a firmer dollar added pressure across non-yielding assets. Energy and industrial metals also retreated, reinforcing the sense of a broad-based tightening in risk conditions rather than a single-market correction.<br /> <strong><em data-start="5456" data-end="5471" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span ><strong> </strong>metals shifted from momentum to forced de-risking, and the aftershocks still matter.</span></p> <hr data-start="5558" data-end="5561" /> <h2 data-start="5563" data-end="5579" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p data-start="5580" data-end="5926" ><strong data-start="5580" data-end="5635">The US dollar found a floor after extreme weakness.</strong><br data-start="5635" data-end="5638" /> FX markets pivoted as the commodity shock and policy uncertainty drove renewed demand for the dollar. The euro held relatively firm on improving growth data, while the yen remained volatile. Commodity-linked currencies reversed earlier gains in line with falling metals and energy prices.<br /> <strong><em data-start="5928" data-end="5943" >Market pulse:</em></strong><span > currencies moved from trend to consolidation as stress rose.</span></p> <hr data-start="6006" data-end="6009" /> <h2 data-start="6011" data-end="6030" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul data-start="6031" data-end="6446" > <li data-start="6031" data-end="6113"> Equities remained resilient, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased. </li> <li data-start="6114" data-end="6192"> Volatility stayed low in equities, with stress migrating into commodities. </li> <li data-start="6193" data-end="6267"> Options markets signalled engagement paired with tighter risk control. </li> <li data-start="6268" data-end="6321"> Bonds regained defensive appeal late in the week. </li> <li data-start="6322" data-end="6386"> Precious metals experienced a historically violent reversal. </li> <li data-start="6387" data-end="6446"> The US dollar stabilised after sharp early-week weakness. </li> </ul> <hr data-start="6448" data-end="6451" /> <h2 data-start="6453" data-end="6503" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 February 2026)</strong></h2> <p data-start="6504" data-end="6948" ><strong data-start="6504" data-end="6589">Markets test whether the metals shock stabilises or spills further across assets.</strong><br data-start="6589" data-end="6592" /> The immediate focus is on whether gold and silver can find a base after margin-driven deleveraging, or whether further selling pressures miners, commodity-linked credit and broader risk sentiment. If metals volatility persists, investors will watch for knock-on effects via a firmer dollar, tighter financial conditions and rising cross-asset correlations.</p> <p data-start="6950" data-end="7234" >Macro data then becomes the referee. The US calendar is dense, with ISM manufacturing, job openings and ADP employment early in the week, culminating in Friday’s January employment report. Labour-market surprises will be critical for rate expectations following the Fed’s recent hold.</p> <p data-start="7236" data-end="7568" >Earnings remain central to index leadership. Results from Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Disney and Palantir will shape views on AI investment, cloud demand and margins. In the current environment, markets are likely to reward visibility and balance-sheet strength over headline beats, especially if cross-asset volatility remains elevated.</p> <p data-start="7570" data-end="7642" ><em data-start="7570" data-end="7585"><strong>Market pulse:</strong></em> containment first in metals, then in rates expectations.</p> <hr data-start="7644" data-end="7647" /> <h2 data-start="7649" data-end="7665" class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p data-start="7666" data-end="8060" >January closed with equities near record levels, but the week’s message came from commodities rather than stocks. Leverage can unwind faster than narratives, and the metals rout has tightened risk discipline across markets. If stability returns quickly, risk assets may regain momentum. If not, spillovers into currencies, credit and volatility could keep investors cautious as February begins.</p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap & insight (video)</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Jan 2026 07:47:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p data-start="214" data-end="514">This video summarises the key developments from the week of 19 to 23 January 2026, including shifts in equities, volatility, currencies and commodities. It highlights how policy signals, options positioning and headline risk shaped market moves, and what themes could drive markets in the week ahead.</p> <p data-start="516" data-end="636">For the full written analysis with data and detailed commentary, read the <em data-start="598" data-end="621">Weekly Market Compass</em> article via the following link:</p> <h2 data-start="516" data-end="636" class="article-heading--2"><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---26-january-2026-26012026" data-id="C2A9F6302CFF42DB8A15D54B9B593656" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026</a></h2></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Webinar: the FX Outlook from here and Mastering FX</h1> <p>Fri, 20 Jun 2025 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy discusses the lay of the land for currencies in the Trump 2.0 era.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>Note: This is marketing material.</em></p> <p><span>In this webinar, Saxo’s Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy takes you through the important new features in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape that will shape markets for years to come, delves into the outlook for the major currencies in this context and, making a number of directional calls. As well, some observations on how he views technical analysis as well as John’s answering of a number of great viewer questions.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Invest in themes with Saxo</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Apr 2025 11:47:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Check out our recent presentation on how thematic investing can help you capture future trends and align your investments with your passions.<span></span></p> <p><strong><span class="underline; ">Agenda:</span></strong></p> <ol> <li><strong>Welcome & introduction</strong> <ul> <li>Introduce thematic investing and its growing popularity, highlighting why it can be both profitable and engaging.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>What is thematic investing?</strong> <ul> <li>Investing in trends and sectors shaping the future, offering targeted exposure and diversification, and alignment with personal interests.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Why invest in themes?</strong> <ul> <li>Capture transformative trends early, diversify portfolios, and combine passion with profit.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Introducing the different Saxo themes</strong> <ul> <li>20 themes grouped into categories like AI, Robotics, Defence, Electric vehicles, etc.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Deep dive into a few selected themes</strong> <ul> <li>A closer look at selected high-potential themes.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Get Started with thematic investing</strong> <ul> <li>How to get started with Saxo Bank</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Q&A</strong></li> </ol> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Jacob Falkencrone</div><div>Global Head of Investment Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Defence</span> <span>Theme - Electric vehicles</span> <span>Theme - Clean energy</span> <span>Theme - Big pharma</span> <span>Theme - Luxury</span> <span>Theme - Robotics and automation</span> <span>Theme - Digitalization</span> <span>Theme - Dividend growth</span> <span>Theme - Emerging market growth</span> <span>Theme - Genomics</span> <span>Theme - Green metals</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>Theme - Agribusiness</span> <span>Theme - Green transition</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Theme - Oil and gas majors</span> <span>Theme - Women in leadership</span> <span>Theme - Construction</span> <span>Theme - Cyber security</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Here's why you shouldn't be scared about volatile markets</h1> <p>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 12:38:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Understanding volatility: a beginner's guide to navigating the market</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Volatility in the stock market can feel intimidating, especially for new investors. However, understanding it is a crucial step towards becoming a confident and informed investor.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>What is volatility?</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Volatility refers to how much and how quickly the price of an asset, such as a stock, fluctuates over time. Think of it as the market's "mood swings." While the global stock market has historically delivered an average annual return of about 8%, these returns come with periods of ups and downs—some dramatic, others mild.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>Why does volatility matter?</span></strong></h4> <p><span>For investors, volatility represents both risk and opportunity. High volatility means prices can change dramatically in a short period, offering chances for higher returns but also increasing the risk of losses. Low volatility, on the other hand, indicates more stable prices but generally lower potential gains.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>How to handle volatility</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Navigating volatile markets requires strategy and patience. Here are three key tips:</span></p> <p><span><strong>• Don’t try to time the market<br /> <br /> </strong></span><span >Timing when to buy or sell based on market movements is extremely difficult, even for seasoned professionals. Attempting to do so often leads to missed opportunities.</span></p> <p><span><strong>• Diversify your portfolio<br /> <br /> </strong></span><span >Diversification—spreading your investments across different asset types like stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities—is one of the best ways to manage risk. Think of it as a balanced diet for your portfolio: it ensures you’re not overly dependent on any single investment.</span></p> <p><span> <br /> <strong>In this video, you can get tips on how to diversify your portfolio in a simple way</strong></span></p> <p><span><strong>• Stay focused on long-term goals<br /> <br /> </strong></span><span >Short-term market fluctuations can be unsettling, but keeping your eyes on long-term objectives helps you stay grounded during turbulent times. Looking at your portfolio from day to day might give you a false picture of the reality. Zoom out and look at the bigger picture.</span></p> <h4><strong><span>Embracing volatility</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Volatility is not something to fear—it’s an inherent part of investing. By staying informed, diversifying your portfolio, and maintaining a long-term perspective, you can turn volatility into an opportunity rather than a challenge.</span></p> <p><span>Stay informed, stay diversified, and remember that volatility is just one part of the investment journey. So embrace the ups and downs—they’re all part of the ride towards financial success!</span></p></div></div><div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ETFs</span> <span>ETF</span> <span>ETF Inspiration</span> <span>MSCI</span> <span>MSCI World Index</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Bank Group Welcomes J. Safra Sarasin Group as New Shareholder</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Mar 2025 08:14:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">We are pleased to announce that Bank J. Safra Sarasin AG is set to become a major shareholder in Saxo Bank A/S, acquiring a 70% stake by purchasing shares from Geely Financials Denmark A/S, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd and Mandatum Group. Your Saxo account continues to be held and contracted with Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd., which remains a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank with no changes to its shareholding. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"><strong>Share the news and <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/go/dcf/8f197cc9-1010-4778-8259-3be0c5ef95a0?name=Refer%2520a%2520friend">refer a friend</a>:<br /> </strong></p> <p><span>This strategic partnership is a testament to Saxo Bank Group’s commitment to delivering exceptional service and innovative solutions to all our clients worldwide. Saxo Markets, as part of the Saxo Bank Group, will continue to ensure that you receive the same high-quality service and access to our award-winning platforms and products. </span></p> <p><span>With the combined strengths of Saxo Bank Group and Safra Sarasin, we aim to enhance our offerings and set new benchmarks for client experience and innovation in the financial industry. Our focus remains on providing you with the best platforms, products, and services to meet your investment and trading needs.</span><span > Thank you to Geely and Mandatum for the support throughout the past seven years, and thank you to all our clients and partners for your continued trust and support.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span data-teams="true">For more details, please find the press release on our website.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Saxo Spotlight</span> <span>Financials</span> <span>Stocks</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Bank announces record 2024 results</h1> <p>Mon, 03 Mar 2025 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The Saxo Bank Group announces its financial results for 2024, achieving the best results in the company's history. The Group reported a net profit of DKK 1,005 million for 2024, compared to a net profit of DKK 260 million for 2023, corresponding to an increase of 287%. The adjusted net profit for 2024 ended at DKK 1,074 million.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>In early 2024, Saxo Bank implemented favorable reduced pricing for clients as part of its new global pricing strategy. This reduction is part of the ongoing commitment to improve the value offered to clients and is closely linked to the ability to provide cost-effective solutions alongside the bank's award-winning platforms, products, and services. </span></p> <p><span>By meeting the clients’ needs and becoming a price-leader across many markets, Saxo Bank experienced sustained growth and reached a record of almost 1.3 million clients by the end of 2024, with all time high client assets of DKK 853 billion.</span></p> <p><strong><span>2024 key figures at a glance (2023): </span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Total income: DKK 4,670 million (</span><span>DKK 4,481 million)</span></li> <li><span>Net profit: DKK 1,005 million (</span><span>DKK 260 million)</span></li> <li><span>Adjusted net profit: DKK 1,074 million (</span><span>DKK 653 million)</span></li> <li><span>Total equity: DKK 6,254 million (</span><span>DKK 6,366 million)</span></li> <li><span>Total client assets: DKK 853 billion (</span><span>DKK 745 billion)</span></li> <li><span>Total number of clients: 1,286,000 (</span><span>1,159,000)</span></li> <li><span>Capital ratio: 29% (32%)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Commenting on the results, Kim Fournais, CEO and Founder of Saxo Bank, said: </span></p> <p><em><span>“I am very proud to report that 2024 was the best financial year in Saxo Bank’s history. This is clearly a very satisfactory result for us. The progress underscores our steadfast commitment to creating value for all our stakeholders and strengthening our foundation for sustainable growth. With almost 1.3 million clients and client assets reaching an impressive DKK 853 billion, these milestones showcase the trust and confidence placed in Saxo Bank. Our comprehensive trading and investment platforms have provided robust tools and resources, enabling our clients and partners to navigate the markets efficiently and build more resilient, diversified portfolios.</span></em></p> <p><em><span>The result is naturally also a large testament to the collective efforts of our employees who have driven Saxo Bank's performance and achievements this year.</span></em></p> <p><em><span>In 2024, we welcomed several new initiatives to make Saxo Bank attractive for even more people. A few highlights are the introduction of more competitive prices across products and the launch of our automated monthly investing account known as AutoInvest. We also introduced our Investor platforms to more markets, enabling more curious people to get invested in the world. </span></em></p> <p><em><span>Moving forward, our strategic focus remains unchanged. We continue to focus on growing our number of clients and client assets, and on enhancing the product and platform offerings to the benefit of our clients while focusing on our core markets.</span></em></p> <p><em><span>In our commitment to protecting our clients and upholding the integrity of our business, Saxo Bank has continued to make significant investments and improvements in compliance, anti-money laundering, cyber security, and risk management. This will remain a core priority as well.”</span></em></p> <p><span>The full report is available here: </span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/about-us/investor-relations"><strong><span>https://www.home.saxo/about-us/investor-relations</span></strong></a></span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Saxo Spotlight</span> <span>Financials</span> <span>Stocks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Don't put all your eggs in one basket</h1> <p>Thu, 27 Feb 2025 11:36:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> <strong> How to Build a Diversified Portfolio with ETFs </strong> </h2> <p>Diversification is a cornerstone of successful investing. It helps reduce risk by spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, and regions. But how can you achieve this efficiently? Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) offer a simple, yet effective way to create a well-diversified portfolio, tailored to your goals and beliefs.</p> <p><strong>What is Diversification?<br /> </strong>Diversification means not putting all your eggs in one basket. By investing in different asset classes, sectors, or regions, you minimize the impact of poor performance in any single area. This strategy smooths returns over time and reduces overall portfolio risk.</p> <p><strong>What Are ETFs?<br /> </strong>ETFs are investment funds traded on stock exchanges, similar to stocks. They hold a collection of assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities and are designed to track the performance of specific indices or sectors. This makes them an accessible tool for both new and experienced investors. </p> <p><strong>Benefits of Using ETFs for Diversification</strong></p> <ul> <li>Broad Exposure: ETFs provide access to various asset classes and sectors. Whether you're interested in technology, healthcare, or emerging markets, there's likely an ETF that aligns with your interests.</li> <li>Cost Efficiency: ETFs often have lower expense ratios compared to mutual funds, making them a cost-effective choice for long-term investors.</li> <li>Ease of Use: Instead of buying individual stocks or bonds, you can invest in a basket of securities with one transaction. This saves time and reduces transaction costs.</li> <li>Flexibility and Liquidity: ETFs can be bought and sold throughout the trading day at market prices, allowing investors to respond quickly to market changes.</li> <li>Transparency: Most ETFs disclose their holdings daily, giving you clear insight into what you're investing in.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Building Your Portfolio with ETFs</strong> <br /> To build a diversified portfolio using ETFs:</p> <ul> <li>Choose Different Asset Classes: Include stocks, bonds, and possibly commodities.</li> <li><span >Diversify Across Sectors and Regions: Invest in multiple industries and geographic areas.</span></li> <li>Rebalance Regularly: Adjust your portfolio periodically to maintain your desired asset allocation as markets fluctuate.</li> </ul> <p>Not sure how to rebalance your portfolio? <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/is-it-time-to-rebalance-your-portfolio-16012025" data-id="911764F992AF4727B5FB745F98A34165" data-type="VideoArticle">This video will provide you with the answers</a>:</p> <span ><br /> </span> <p><strong>Conclusion</strong> ETFs are a powerful tool for achieving diversification. They offer exposure to a wide range of assets while being cost-effective, flexible, and easy to manage. By incorporating ETFs into your investment strategy, you can build a resilient portfolio that aligns with your financial goals.</p> <p> </p> <h2></h2></div></div><div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>ETFs</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETFs</span> <span>ETF</span> <span>ETF Inspiration</span> <span>MSCI</span> <span>MSCI World Index</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Is it time to rebalance your portfolio?</h1> <p>Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:14:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Revitalize Your Portfolio: A New Year’s Guide to Rebalancing</span></strong></p> <p><span>Now that 2024 turned into 2025, it's the perfect time to give your investment portfolio a fresh start. Much like the legendary investor Warren Buffett, who is known for his strategic moves in the market, investors are encouraged to take a closer look at their portfolios and consider rebalancing to align with their financial goals and risk tolerance.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The Importance of Rebalancing</span></strong></p> <p><span>Rebalancing is similar to maintaining a garden. Over time, market fluctuations can alter your asset allocation, potentially exposing you to unintended risks. By rebalancing, you ensure that your portfolio remains aligned with your investment strategy, providing stability even as markets fluctuate.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Strategies for Rebalancing</span></strong></p> <p><span>There are two primary approaches to rebalancing your portfolio: calendar-based and threshold-based strategies. The calendar-based method involves reviewing and adjusting your portfolio on a set schedule, such as semi-annually or annually. The threshold-based approach requires adjustments when asset allocations deviate from predetermined percentages. Choosing the right method depends on your investment style and time commitment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Steps to Effective Rebalancing</span></strong></p> <p><span>To effectively rebalance your portfolio, follow these steps:</span></p> <ol start="1"> <li><strong><span>Assess Current Allocations</span></strong><span>: Evaluate your current asset distribution.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Compare to Target Allocations</span></strong><span>: Identify discrepancies between current and target allocations.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Adjust Holdings</span></strong><span>: Buy assets that are below target and sell those that exceed target allocations.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Document Changes</span></strong><span>: Keep a record of all adjustments for future reference.</span></li> </ol> <p><strong><span>Avoiding Common Pitfalls</span></strong></p> <p><span>Investors often face pitfalls such as emotional decision-making and neglecting to rebalance. It's crucial to maintain a consistent strategy and consider factors beyond asset classes, such as geography and sectors. Avoid trying to time the market, as this can lead to missed opportunities.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Conclusion: A Well-Balanced New Year</span></strong></p> <p><span>As we step into the New Year, take a cue from seasoned investors and ensure your portfolio is working as hard as you are. By avoiding common mistakes and implementing a robust rebalancing strategy, you can set the stage for a prosperous and well-balanced financial future. Remember, the key to successful investing is sticking to your long-term strategy and not making rash decisions based on short-term market movements. Here's to a prosperous New Year!</span></p></div></div><div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Will Elon Musk's alliance with Donald Trump help Tesla fast-track their technologies?</h1> <p>Mon, 30 Dec 2024 12:54:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2><span>The Musk-Trump </span><span>Alliance:</span><span> Tesla's Stock Soars</span></h2> <p><span>In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and business, an unexpected partnership has emerged, sending shockwaves through the stock market. The alliance between newly re-elected President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not only captured headlines but also propelled Tesla's stock to unprecedented heights.</span></p> <h3><span>The Unlikely Partnership</span></h3> <p><span>Donald Trump, known for his skepticism of electric vehicles and green energy initiatives, has found an unlikely ally in Elon Musk, the eccentric billionaire behind Tesla and SpaceX.<br /> <br /> This partnership has led to a significant shift in Trump's rhetoric on electric vehicles, with the President now stating, "I'm for electric cars".</span></p> <h3><span>Tesla's Stock Skyrockets</span></h3> <p><span>The impact of this alliance on Tesla's stock has been nothing short of remarkable:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Tesla's stock hit an all-time high of $488 per share</span></li> <li><span>The company's market value surged by 73% in 2024</span></li> <li><span>November alone saw a 38% increase, marking Tesla's best monthly performance since January 2023</span></li> </ul> <h3><span>The Musk Factor</span></h3> <p><span>Elon Musk's influence on this rally cannot be overstated:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Musk invested $277 million in Trump's campaign</span></li> <li><span>He's been a constant presence at Trump's Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago</span></li> <li><span>Trump appointed Musk to co-chair the new 'Department of Government Efficiency'</span></li> </ul> <h3><span>What This Means for Tesla</span></h3> <p><span>Investors are betting big on Tesla for several reasons:</span></p> <ol start="1"> <li><span>Regulatory Relief: With Musk's influence in the White House, Tesla might face less scrutiny from federal agencies</span></li> <li><span>Self-Driving Cars: There's hope for fast-tracked federal framework regulations on autonomous vehicles, potentially giving Tesla an edge</span></li> <li><span>AI Advancements: Wall Street sees Tesla as an undervalued AI player, especially in the realm of self-driving technology</span></li> </ol> <h3><span>The Risks</span></h3> <p><span>Despite the optimism, there are potential pitfalls:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>The possibility of eliminating EV tax credits could hurt Tesla's sales</span></li> <li><span>State-level investigations into Tesla remain a concern</span></li> <li><span>The Tesla brand could become associated with political alliance, reducing Tesla's market share potential</span></li> </ul> <h3><span>What's Next?</span></h3> <p><span>As we look to the future, the Musk-Trump alliance has undeniably reshaped the landscape for Tesla and the entire electric vehicle industry. Whether this partnership will continue to boost Tesla's fortunes or lead to unexpected challenges remains to be seen.</span></p> <p><span>In the world of stocks, what goes up can come down. As with any investment, it's crucial to do your own research and consider your long-term strategy before making decisions based on short-term market moves.</span></p> <br /> <em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Tesla</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Tesla Inc.</span> <span>EV</span> <span>Electric Vehicle</span> <span>Vehicle</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Cramer's Corner: Daily Technical Update</h1> <p>Tue, 29 Aug 2023 06:52:28 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Cramer’s Corner: Daily Technical Update<br><br>Kim Cramer Larsson hosts the Daily Technical Update, a daily 8-10 minute video with live charts. <br>Kim takes you through the latest technical developments in financial markets, covering everything from the major stock indices, widely traded single stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>In today’s Technical Update: </span></p> <ul> <li><span>S&P 500. Shoulder-Head-Shoulder Top & reversal pattern could be unfolding. Key support at 4,340. Cancelled above 4,459</span></li> <li><span>Nasdaq 100. In downtrend. Key support at 14,687. Next at 14,254</span></li> <li><span>Hang Seng testing resistance at 18,562 resist. A close above could lead to 19K. But is likely to resume downtrend </span></li> <li><span>DAX Key support at 15,482</span></li> <li><span>AEX25 downtrend. key support at 731.Next support at 716. Resistance at 748 </span></li> <li><span>BEL20 downtrend. Key support at 3,550</span></li> <li><span>CAC40 Downtrend. Key support at 7,083 </span></li> <li><span>EURUSD downtrend but could see a short-term bounce to 1.09 </span></li> <li><span>Dollar Index uptrend. Room to 104.82. Strong resistance at 105.80. expect short-term correction to 103.00</span></li> <li><span>GBPUSD downtrend. Hovering around key support at 1.2590. Could bounce to 1.27-1.2750 before downtrend to resume </span></li> <li><span>USDJPY uptrend intact. Strong resistance at 146.35. Below 144.50 expect correction to 143</span></li> <li><span>EURJPY uptrend but short term range bound </span></li> <li><span>Gold downtrend but bouncing from below 1,900. Strong support at 1,870 </span></li> <li><span>Copper rejected at 382 likely to resume downtrend </span></li> <li><span>Silver Bullish but resistance at 24,50</span></li> <li><span>Platinum short-term bullish but facing strong resistance </span></li> <li><span>Palladium range bound 1,200-13,45</span></li> <li><span>Brent correction ongoing. Likely to be range bound between 81.75 and 88.20</span></li> <li><span>Dutch Gas Bullish sentiment but struggling for momentum</span></li> <li><span>US 10-year Treasury yields top and reversal pattern could correct to 4.10-4.00</span></li> <li><span>US 10-year Treasury future Doji Morning bottom and reversal </span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>Follow me for more on SaxoTrader platforms, home.saxo and Twitter: Cramers_Corner</span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Cramers Corner</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q3 2023 Summary AI - The Good the Bad and the Bubble</h1> <p>Thu, 06 Jul 2023 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">This outlook zeroes in on the launch of artificial intelligence. It looks at the technology as potentially groundbreaking, but also as a risk for stock markets. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>In this Outlook, our chief focus is on the current market impact of the AI theme across markets and around the world. But Steen’s introductory piece also argues that market participants are making a mistake in believing that the current market cycle will play out like previous ones, as inflation is set to stay higher for longer than the market anticipates, which will eventually register as an enormous surprise, given that yield curves in most markets are pricing significant eventual policy easing starting early next year and a glide path to a soft landing. The complacency surrounding that disinflationary and soft-landing scenario have kept long yield anchored and allowed equity markets, and particularly AI-linked names, to inflate perilously.</p> <p>Also on the AI theme that has dominated focus over the last quarter:</p> <p>Equity strategist Peter Garnry argues that the emergence of advanced AI systems such as GPT-4 from OpenAI is by far the most surprising event this year, a phenomenon that has turned everything on its head. Further, he writes that the AI-hyped rally has pushed the US equity market to new extremes, even as the benefits and risks of this new technology are hotly debated. He predicts that we risk seeing US and China engaging in an AI arms race.</p> <p>Our Greater China strategist, Redmond Wong, points to the challenges China faces in the field of generative AI as it navigates a global order of fragmentation. The success of generative AI breakthroughs in the US, coupled with limited computing power and geopolitical tensions, has threatened to break down China’s virtuous cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement and growth. </p> <p>Macro strategist Charu Chanana highlights Japan’s expertise in semiconductor manufacturing and robotic integration, suggesting these could be the foundation of a very strong presence in AI. She notes that Japanese equities and artificial intelligence combine the two most powerful market themes of this year.</p> <p>Cryptocurrency analyst Mads Eberhardt notes that AI fever has stolen the spotlight from blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market generally, pushing the space further into speculative no man’s land. Despite the contrasting performance between crypto and AI-linked assets, there are striking similarities, especially the risk of bubble-like dynamics. </p> <p>Investment Coach Hans Oudshoorn outlines in his piece how investors can gain exposure to AI via ETFs that provide considerable diversification, but still noting the risks from valuations that have become very elevated in places.</p> <p>In addition to the AI focus, this report also delves into the outlook across major asset classes:</p> <p>In currencies, FX strategist John Hardy notes that USD shorts could be set for a vicious reality check if the US economy remains resilient and core inflation remains sticky, possibly engaging both sides of the "USD smile" that drive USD strength: the Fed remaining on the warpath and market turmoil. John notes that the stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if the longer yields of the major sovereign yield curves have to price in a new economic acceleration, as the BoJ will have to eventually capitulate on its yield-curve-control policy. </p> <p>In commodities, commodity strategist Ole Hansen suggests that the commodity sector looks set to start the third quarter on a firmer footing after months of weakness saw a partial reversal during June. Ole notes that strong gains were at times driven by a weaker US dollar, but specific developments in each sector also weighed. Most concerning for is the risk of higher food prices into the autumn, as several key growing regions battle with hot and dry weather conditions sparked by the first El Niño weather pattern in years.</p> <p>Fixed income strategist Althea Spinozzi argues that central banks face a troubling dilemma: if they really want to get ahead of inflation, they will need to burst asset bubbles created by a decade of quantitative easing (QE) and trigger a recession. But she asks whether they are willing to take policy tightening that far and ever win the inflation fight.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span> <span>Monthly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Summary Q2 2023 Outlook: The Fragmentation Game</h1> <p>Tue, 04 Apr 2023 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">This Quarter's Outlook, "The Fragmentation Game", is our view on how a new world order forces you to reconsider your investment strategy. Read it today.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">An Executive Summary</h4> <p class="text--body">The sudden March advent of turmoil in US banks, and then a mere week later, the SNB-engineered weekend takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, sent shockwaves through global markets in March. We scrambled to work through the consequences, as we were in mid-stream with the preparation of this Q2 Outlook. In this publication, we have endeavored to address this crisis, which will have important short-, medium- and long-term consequences for both banking systems and our economies. The crisis has sharply brought forward the coming recession, for example. In the intro to this publication, our CIO, Steen Jakobsen, leads readers through the implication of the sudden bank turmoil that unfolded late in Q1, noting that this is no 2008-09 solvency crisis, but the result of the spike in the cost of funding.</p> <p class="text--body">But we also touch extensively on the originally intended theme for this Outlook, which is The Fragmentation Game. This is our term for what many call “deglobalisation”, a term we find too vague. As Steen Jakobsen points out, the word fragmentation better describes how the process of deglobalisation works, as the world’s economic blocs have lurched into a profound realignment that will play out over coming decades. The game has begun for every nation to ensure that all critical supply chains, whether for medicine, energy, vital resources, technology or defense, are either completely at home or with a friendly trading partner, or ideally, both. </p> <p class="text--body">Our Hong Kong-based strategist, Redmond Wong, looks at the challenges China faces as it boldly carves out a more prominent role in multi-lateral global institutions, deepens strategic trade relationships and reduces its reliance on exports for the first time in the modern era. Securing technology, and especially resources, will be China’s chief challenges. Our macro strategist, Charu Chanana, focuses on Southeast Asia’s, and especially India’s, enormous potential in a fragmenting world. She weighs, for example, India’s strong demographic profile and huge upside potential in manufacturing against the nation’s traditional speed-limiters like protectionism and burdensome bureaucracy. </p> <p class="text--body"> Our equity and quant strategist, Peter Garnry, looks into the equity market impact from the banking crisis after the year had gotten off to a roaring start for many pockets of the equity market, with Europe a strong performer on avoiding an energy crisis. He also delves into where the Fragmentation Game will provide both pain and opportunities in equities. The obvious sectors in focus include semiconductors, defence, renewable energy, logistics, larger companies, and especially quality companies with low debt and strong competitive characteristics.</p> <p class="text--body"> Our macro strategist, Christopher Dembik, looks at the risk of where the banking crisis could take the US economy next, namely into recession eventually, but focuses readers’ attention on the heavy concentration of commercial real estate loans in smaller and regional US banks as a potential next-shoe-to-drop. The real estate angle is critical to watch in Europe and the UK as well.</p> <p class="text--body"> In FX, strategist John Hardy notes that the interest rate cycle has now turned sharply and ponders the forward policy mix and jockeying among currencies as stimulus to soften the impact of further financial system turmoil, and eventually the incoming recession will have to take a very different form relative to the crises we have known over the last 25 years. Japan knows the playbook, as it will almost inevitably involve some form of yield curve control.</p> <p class="text--body">In commodities, Ole Hansen discusses how the China re-opening surge in commodities fizzled in Q1, but notes it is too quick to write off the potential for commodities: parts of the Fragmentation Game, like the electrification of much of our energy, are very metal-intensive, especially copper-intensive. And the traditional inflation hedge of precious metals has already revived in Q1, with gold posting a record high against several major currencies.</p> <p class="text--body"> Finally, Investment Coach Hans Oudshoorn relays how investors can hedge downside in their equity positions using a popular approach: an options collar that involves buying a put that is at least in part financed by selling a call option, providing an example on an underlying S&P 500 future position. </p> <p class="text--body"> We wish you a safe and prosperous Q2 and beyond. The stakes for investors for the remainder of this year and beyond have risen with the latest market turmoil, and the Fragmentation Game will require all of us to consider how the world is ordered and what its reconfiguration will mean for our investments for the coming quarters, years and decades.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span> <span>Monthly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 13 Mar 2023 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">U.S. regulators moved to calm markets by backstopping depositors in full. The Fed’s monetary policy has been complicated and market expectations swung from a faster pace back to downshifts and earlier pause as the crisis of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank unfolded. Investors’ number one focus this week will be whether the U.S. regulators succeed in calming down the markets’ concern about the U.S. banking system and avoiding systemic risks.</div><div class="article-video-title">Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? </div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>SVB contagion limited by authorities, but risks could remain</span></strong></h3> <p><span>As risks of a contagion from the US bank SVB’s collapse rose last week, authorities have stepped in to contain the risks and prevent a broader impact on the financial sector. Equity futures have responded positively to the news of a backstop funding, but Treasury yields continued to slide and the US dollar weakness also extended further. The headlines around this will continue to be key to watch this week as there may be lingering fears for depositors for not just the SVB but also more broadly in the US banking sector. President Biden’s address on Monday morning will be key to watch.</span></p> <p><span>The development has also complicated the Fed’s monetary policy outlook further, and March rate hike expectations have reversed back from 50bps to now 25bps again with calls for a pause also gaining traction and financial stability concerns arise. However, the Fed’s response to the situation asserts that financial risks remain under control, while the inflation risks may continue to be an issue, suggesting potential yield curve bull steepening. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Investors should remain on guard after the SVB fallout spread to Signature Bank. Market to search for concentration risk clues</span></strong></h3> <p><span>We all know the US’ 16th largest bank, SVB, on Friday was taken over by the </span><span>FDIC. Then </span><span>regulators took control of another bank, Signature Bank. We know the Fed offered an emergency bank term funding program, to SVB depositors, so they can access money from Monday, while authorities suggest Signature Bank depositors would also be supported. </span><span>This is not only the biggest </span><span>bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, but also, risk still remains. Now investors and option holders may be forced to take risk off the table for those assets that are embroiled in the saga.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>Secondly - it’s really vital to consider the ripple effects of the banking fallout. With Continuous Disclosure obligations for listed companies, we expect companies involved with SVB or Signature bank to disclose their exposure and or relationship over the coming days. This has already started to occur in Australia- with companies on the ASX such as Xero (XRO) revealing they have a 1% of their cash and cash equivalents with SVB.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>Thirdly – consider the market will be searching for opportunity to de risk – perhaps selling out of firms that are prone to concentration risk or could potentially be under financial duress. That may include financial institutions that have concentrated (not diversified) client's books and revenue streams. Or those companies that have lent money to high-risk technology companies or starts ups. For the investor, it could be worth considering reviewing your portfolio, to ensure the company’s asset quality and clientele are not at risk.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Upside in US CPI is also unlikely to make Fed go for 50bps in March</span></strong></h3> <p><span>US inflation has been the talk of town for several months now, although the focus has lately turned to financial contagion risks that may stop the Fed from switching back to a higher rate hike path trajectory. Still, February CPI – due to be released on Tuesday – will be a big test after last month’s print reversed the disinflation narrative that the markets had started to accept, and continued to point at sticky services inflation. Headline consumer prices are expected to rise +0.4% MoM in February, cooling slightly vs the +0.5% in January, with the annual rate seen easing to 6.0% YoY from 6.4% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise +0.4% MoM in February, matching the January pace, though the annual rate is likely to fall to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% in January. Overall message is likely to remain that inflation remains stubbornly high, especially after tough weather conditions in California, but the risk of a 50bps rate hike from the Fed in March remains low as the central bank becomes wary of “something breaking”. </span></p> <p><span>Other US data of note this week includes PPI and retail sales for February, both of which are expected to show a modest cooling but still remain high. Consensus expectations are for February producer prices to rise by +0.3% MoM (prev. +0.7%) or 5.4% YoY (prev. 6.0%). Retail sales are expected to cool from January jump of 3.0% MoM on warmer weather and expected to come in cooler at +0.2% MoM. If the January outperformance in US data is not repeated, and the contagion fears continue, we could see Fed expectations being pulled back significantly this week as the market is in panic mode. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>China retail sales are expected to bounce strongly</span></strong></h3> <p><span>China is scheduled to release retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment this Wednesday. Investors will focus on the retail sales data for a gauge of the strength of the recovery of consumption after the economy reopened. Consensus estimates expects retail sales to bounce strongly to a growth of year-on-year growth of 3.5% in the first two months of the year, after declining 0.2% in January. Industrial production is expected to come in at +2.5% Y/Y year-to-date. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>European Central Bank to go for another 50bps rate hike this week</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The ECB is still expected to hike the deposit rate by 50bps to 3.0% at the March 16 announcement, given what was said in the February meeting and recent commentaries. Focus will be on the guidance for the path of interest rates from here, as well as on the comments around the risks of a financial contagion spreading from the SVB collapse. Recent data such as an upside surprise in core inflation has prompted ECB pricing to shift to a terminal rate of 4% by July, suggesting a lot of room for give back if financial risks broaden. If the central banks stays away from guiding for another 50bps in May, that could come as a dovish surprise for markets. The latest inflation forecasts will also be key, with core inflation expectations likely to be revised higher for 2023 after strong reads in January and February. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>UK budget on watch for growth and fiscal picture; jobs data key for BOE</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will be delivering the spring budget on March 15, which will be a key watch especially after the market turmoil in September when Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng and former Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled lavish tax cuts roiling the markets. Expectations are for the Hunt to prioritize keeping public finances steady, announce less near-term borrowing but only a marginally improved medium-term fiscal outlook. Lower energy prices will also likely boost the short-term growth outlook, helping recession fears recede, although longer-term growth may remain marred with low labor force participation and weak productivity growth. </span></p> <p><span>Before the focus turns to UK budget on Wednesday, the UK labor market data will be released on Tuesday and investors will be scrambling to gauge how much room does the BOE have to tighten further. Bloomberg consensus expects the unemployment rate to rise to 3.8% in the three months to January from 3.7% previously, with headline jobs growth likely to ease to 60k from 102k in January. However, even with a slightly softer jobs report, the BOE is expected to continue its hiking cycle in March as activity data has been stronger than expected, but the trend in labor market from here will be key to see where BOE could pause its tightening cycle.</span><span > </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Australian pulse checks: business and consumer confidence and jobs numbers</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Australia business and consumer confidence, numbers released on Tuesday will give a gauge of how the economy is feeling after the RBA made its 10th rate hike, with businesses and consumers likely to lean into the RBA’s comments that it could pause rate hikes soon. Later in the week on Thursday, the all-important unemployment rate will be released for February – with Bloomberg’s consensus suggesting the jobless rate will fall from 3.7 to 3.6%, with 50,000 jobs expected to be added last month. If the data shows employment is rising, contrary to what the RBA expects, then the Australian dollar would likely gain pace, as the RBA would gain power to keep rising rates by 0.25% for the next few months, with the market expecting hikes can made till September. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Macro data on watch this week:</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; "><strong>Monday 13 March</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><span>India CPI (Feb)</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; "><strong>Tuesday 14 March</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>US CPI & Core CPI (Feb)</span></strong></li> <li><span>U.K. Employment (Jan) & Payrolls (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>Australian consumer and business confidence </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; "><strong>Wednesday 15 March</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Retail sales (Feb)</span></strong></li> <li><strong><span>US PPI & Core PPI (Feb)</span></strong></li> <li><span>Eurozone Industrial production (Jan)</span></li> <li><span>UK Budget </span></li> <li><span>Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes (17-18 Jan)</span></li> <li><strong><span>China Retail sales, industrial production, & fixed asset investment (Feb)</span></strong></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; "><strong>Thursday 16 March</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><span>US Housing starts & building permits (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>US Initial jobless claims </span></li> <li><span>Australian employment data – jobless rate (Feb)</span></li> <li><strong><span>ECB policy rate decision</span></strong></li> <li><span>Japan exports (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>Japan Machinery orders (Jan)</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; "><strong>Friday 17 March</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><span>US Industrial production (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>US university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>UK BoE/Ipsos Inflation next 12 months (Feb)</span></li> <li><span>Japan Tertiary industry activity (Jan)</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Earnings on watch this week:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><span class="underline; ">Tuesday</span><span>: Volkswagen, Lennar, Foxconn</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Wednesday</span><span>: Adobe, Constellation Software, BMW, E.ON, Ping An Insurance, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Thursday</span><span>: FedEx, Dollar General, Enel, Li Ning</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Friday</span><span>: Vonovia, Longfor, CMOC Group Lt</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <span><br /> </span> <span></span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span> <span>Iron Ore</span> <span>Bhp Billiton</span> <span>Tesla</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Ford Motor</span> <span>Saxo Spotlight</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Weekly Watch: Economic & company news to be across this week for your investing and trading</h1> <p>Sun, 26 Feb 2023 15:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The US dollar could move higher again if US durable goods orders for January are hotter than expected. Why the Australian dollar could be pressured with this weeks GDP and CPI data. And why China’s PMI release is so important this week. Energy companies are a focus this week, with outlooks from Occidental, Woodside Energy and Canadian Natural Resources on watch. Brewers will be interesting to watch amid the reopening trade. Budweiser Brewing Co in Hong Kong could surprise the market, while the world’s largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev listed in NY could gain more attention after options volume rose over 8% last week.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Welcome to Saxo’s Weekly watch - Covering the economic and company news, </span></strong><span>you need</span><span> to be across in the new week; so you can stay on top of your trading and investing. <br /> <br /> <em>Please note days mentioned are in AEST time. </em></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Firstly let’s look at the weeks economic calendar of releases – to prepare ourselves for what could move equity market and FX rates. </span></h3> <p><span >On Tuesday - traders will be watching </span><strong >US durable goods orders for January. </strong><span >This is a closely watched proxy for business spending – tracking purchases of long-lasting goods, such as vehicles. We know, in December durable goods orders rose 5.6% - marking its biggest gain since 2020. The hot print was driven by transportation equipment orders rising 17%. But somehow now Bloomberg consensus expects durable goods orders to have fallen 3.9%. But we think traders should stay on their toes. We are not sure if orders will fall- or even by that much. Why? Well business activity picked up in February, according surveys of manufacturers and service providers. So you might see the US dollar swing higher, if the data is hotter than expected - as the Fed would have more power to keep hiking rates. Also note the US dollar is continuing to march higher after hotter than expected US inflation read outs from consumer and producer inflation (PCE, PPI, CPI). </span></p> <p><span>On Wednesday </span><strong><span>Australian GDP</span></strong><span> will likely to show fourth-quarter economic growth slowed down to pace of 2.7% YoY - quashed by higher inflation and interest rates. And monthly CPI should show inflation is cooling. In these instances, that would theoretically pressure the Aussie dollar lower, while the US dollar is continuing to move up -so that’s something to watch for the AUDUSD pair for example. </span></p> <p><span>Also Wednesday - <strong>China’s PMI</strong> surveys are expected to show the recovery is progressing in February. We expect good news - with the services sector driving growth and manufacturing picking up slightly. These will be important signals - as monthly activity data won’t next be available until mid-March.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Moving to company news to watch for the week ahead </span></strong></h3> <p><span >Energy companies have again </span><span data-contrast="auto" >reported the best earnings growth this US and Australian corporate reporting season - with increased profits and dividends. <strong>Occidental Petroleum’s </strong>outlook will be a focus this week, as well as <strong>Canadian Natural Resources</strong> results later in the week. And Woodside Energy reported early in Australia on Monday. The key is to watch their outlooks.<br /> <br /> <strong>Occidental </strong>is expected to report its highest-ever fourth-quarter net income, with the US energy giant to benefit from high energy prices amid tight supplies. <span data-contrast="auto">The oil and gas giant generated about $2.8 billion in free cash flow in the period after years of austerity and debt reduction, according to Bloomberg consensus. Investors will closely monitor its 2023 spending and capital-returns outlook with adjusted EPS of $1.79 expected. Occidental's shares are down 6.6% this year.</span></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></p> <p><span><span data-contrast="auto">Australia’s oil and gas giant - <strong>Woodside Energy </strong>reported </span><span data-contrast="none">profits that more than trebled in 2022 - with bottom line profits up 228% - fuelled by the oil and gas price rallies, but also as it acquired <strong>BHP’s </strong>oil and gas business. Woodside reported a larger final dividend of US$1.44 a share, up from US$1.05 a share at the same time last year. Its full year pay-out stands at US$4.8 billion thanks to cash flows surging. This sets the tone for energy companies in 2023. Keep in mind at Saxo, we expect the oil price to stay around $80 this quarter and move up to $90 next quarter. </span></span></p> <strong >Brewers will be interesting to watch - </strong><span >amid the reopening trade. </span><strong >Budweiser Brewing Co (1876 HK) </strong><span >which is the distributor is Asia - is due to release results on Wednesday. The FIFA World Cup could have boosted its Q4 revenue – especially as that’s generally its weakest season of the year. Still Bloomberg consensus estimates Q4 net income will dive 75%, as the Covid infection waves in China impacted business. As for its future – some parts of Asia are rising beer tax – so that may deter some beer drinkers . In its outlook - price hikes will likely be a theme, with South Korea raising the tax on beer by 3.6% per litre in April and Budweiser APAC’s brands Oriental Brewery and Hite Jinro likely to raise their prices after the proposed liquor tax hike. <br /> <br /> </span> <p><span>The world’s largest brewer </span><span><strong>Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)</strong> may gain more attention when it reports on Thursday. This is the distributor behind Aguila, Becks, Corona, Modelo and Stella Artois. Option volume in Anheuser-Busch InBev rose about 8% in the week before their due to release earnings. Bloomberg consensus its EPS to grow from 1.94 to 3.01</span></p> <p><span >For more - head to analysis.saxo to stay abreast of our daily analysis on company and economic news. </span><span ></span></p> <p><span>For equity inspiration - check out our Equity Theme Baskets – also note Defence stocks are outperforming year-on-year.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >For a global look at markets – tune into our </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" >Podcast</a><span >.</span></h3> <p><span ><br /> <em>Note: This reported was prepared on Friday, Feb 24 and updated Monday Feb 27. </em></span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-video-title">Weekly Watch: Economic & company news to be across this week for your investing and trading </div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Jessica Amir</div><div>Market Strategist</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>InflationSG</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>Asia-Pacific Themes</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>Weekly Outlook</span> <span>Education How To Guides - Getting Started Videos</span> <span>China</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Australian Themes</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>FX Carry</span> <span>FX Breakout</span> <span>FX Positioning</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? From US PCE to services data, to RBNZ hike to BHP, Rio results</h1> <p>Mon, 20 Feb 2023 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">This week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, US PCE will be released, as well as the and FOMC minutes - which will shed more light on inflation trends and see the USD lift and equities soften. Japan’s January CPI and BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary hearings are on tap. Geopolitical tension keeps Saxo’s Defense basket in focus. A potential downshift in RBNZ’s rate hike trajectory could signal NZD weakness. Flash PMIs could test the soft landing narrative. BHP and Rio Tinto’s outlooks could set the course for copper and aluminium companies for 2023. And will Allkem and Pilbara Minerals results follow Albemarle’s bumper numbers. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <h3 paraid="195612521" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{48}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto">US PCE and FOMC minutes will shed more light on inflation trends</span></h3> <p paraid="195612521" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{48}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1708160130" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{60}"><span data-contrast="auto">After firmer prints for January CPI and PPI last week causing some market concern, focus now turns to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the PCE – due this week. Bloomberg consensus expects January core PCE at 4.3% YoY (from 4.4% previously) while the MoM may be slightly hotter at 0.4% from 0.3% last month. Consumer spending is likely to have stayed robust, continuing to signal that the path of disinflation may not be linear. FOMC minutes from the Jan 31-Feb 1 meeting will also be out on Wednesday, but may be slightly dated in the wake of hotter inflation data since the meeting. As there was no dot plot at the meeting, it will be key to watch if any members commented on their expectations of terminal rate pricing. With some of the Fed members hinting at a potential 50bps rate hike again, it will be also important to watch if other members, especially those on the voting committee, remain open to that. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="737219974" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{86}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Japan’s January CPI and BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary hearings on tap</span></h3> <p paraid="737219974" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{86}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="778904404" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{92}"><span data-contrast="auto">Japan reports January inflation on Friday, and the pressure on Bank of Japan to tighten policy will continue to build. Consensus expects a further increase in inflationary pressures, with headline rising to 4.3% YoY from 4.0% YoY previously, while the ex-fresh food and energy is likely to head higher to 3.3% YoY from 3.0% YoY in December. Service price pressures are likely to sustain as travel momentum picks up further with China reopening. Tokyo CPI data for the month also accelerated to 4.4% YoY in January from 3.9% previously. The same day, BoJ Governor-nominee Ueda is poised to appear before the lower house for parliamentary hearings. Ueda’s speech will be key in gauging a clear stance from the Governor candidate ahead of incumbent Kuroda’s end-of-term on April 8. Markets are expecting a hawkish shift amid the hot CPI and wage pressures, but Ueda will likely take the time to assess his policy options. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="670470134" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{142}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Russia-Ukraine anniversary: Geopolitical tension keeps Saxo’s Defense basket in focus </span></h3> <p paraid="670470134" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{142}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="524218532" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{152}"><span data-contrast="auto">In Saxo’s equity theme baskets, the Defense basket was one of the top performers last week despite the news of China sanctions on US defence companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon due to balloon shooting incident. Geopolitical tensions, and therefore the Defense stocks, will remain in focus again this week as we approach the one-year anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Biden will be visiting NATO ally Poland to talk about the importance of the international community’s resolve, and unity in supporting Ukraine, adding that the next weeks and months are going to be difficult for Ukraine’s forces, and the US is going to continue to stand by them. Meanwhile, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi kicked off his week-long tour through Europe in Paris on Wednesday. The diplomat is expected to travel to Italy, Germany, and Hungary – with a final stop in Russia. There were also some reports suggesting that the US has information that China may be considering supplying arms to Russia. Putin will also be giving a state of the nation address, and focus will be on any risks of further escalation noting that 500k Russian troops have been mobilised. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="1409167240" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{192}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Flash PMIs to be the next test of the soft landing narrative </span></h3> <p paraid="1409167240" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{192}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1571030321" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{202}"><span data-contrast="auto">This week will bring flash PMIs for February in the Eurozone, UK as well as the US. Sustained strength is likely for the Eurozone PMIs across manufacturing and services after the jump seen in January, but the impact of monetary tightening remains key to watch given the still significant amount of rate hikes being priced in for the ECB. The PMIs for UK are however likely to continue to remain in contractionary territory, suggesting the risk of recession has not gone away. Germany’s Ifo and ZEW surveys for February will also provide a further read on growth at the start of 2023. US PMIs, likewise, are also likely to remain in contraction despite some improvement, but the key in US remains the ISM surveys more than the S&P PMIs. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="1659164849" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{244}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Downshift in RBNZ’s rate hike trajectory could signal NZD weakness</span></h3> <p paraid="1659164849" paraeid="{b8ddf1f9-be06-4f74-9b6e-0b31e2311a9c}{244}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="439407710" paraeid="{118f4a24-a8f8-40e8-847d-ab4a425704fb}{1}"><span data-contrast="auto">The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday, 22 February and consensus expects a return to 50bps rate hikes after a 75bps in November when even the possibility of a 100bps was debated. Economic data has been soft since the last meeting, with 2-year inflation expectations easing and unemployment rate seeing a slight uptick. However, Cyclone Gabrielle has brought fresh risks of inflation pressures in the short-term. Still, risks of further kiwi weakness loom large after NZD has weakened 1.6% against the USD so far this year. If RBNZ signals that the peak for the current rate hike cycle is near, the 38.2% retracement of NZDUSD uptrend from the October low could be challenged. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="1549002532" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{84}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Commodity giants - BHP (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) results ahead - setting the course for copper and aluminium companies in 2023</span></h3> <p paraid="1549002532" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{84}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':257}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1259497474" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{93}"><span data-contrast="auto">BHP and Rio Tinto report this week (Monday 21, Tuesday 22 respectively) and if Fortescue was something to go by with stronger than expected profits - supported by iron ore demand rising 4% than a year earlier - then BHP and Rio could surprise to the upside. The focus will be on their outlooks – with both BHP and Rio expected to give optimistic forecasts for the year amid Chinese demand picking. They may also shed light on wages picking up and further inflationary pressures.</span><span data-contrast="none"> </span><span data-contrast="none">Iron ore, and copper and coal giant</span><span data-contrast="none"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">BHP</span><span data-contrast="auto"> is expected to declare a full-year gross dividend yield of 14% with earnings (EBITDA) of $40.6 billion in 2022 and free cashflows of $26 billion. Iron ore, aluminium and copper giant </span><span data-contrast="auto">Rio</span><span data-contrast="auto"> is expected to declare a full-year gross dividend yield of about 11%, with earnings (EBITDA) of $27.1 billion in 2022 and free cash flow of $11.2 billion. Saxo’s preferred commodity exposure is aluminium and copper (and lithium). To track Australia’s largest Resources companies, refer to Saxo's </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/theme/10f64777-b443-4d14-8a1e-a94537f00e03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span data-contrast="none">Australian Resources</span></a><span data-contrast="auto"> theme Basket. </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="599936299" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{109}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="auto"><br /> Lithium companies Allkem (AKE) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) results ahead – they could follow </span><span data-contrast="none">Albemarle which </span><span data-contrast="auto">paved a positive outlook </span></h3> <p paraid="599936299" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{109}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':257}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="710288342" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{118}"><span data-contrast="none">After the world's biggest lithium company Albemarle gave a stronger than expected sales outlook for 2023 paving a positive course for lithium companies this year; with </span><span data-contrast="auto">China’s reopening to provide extra momentum as demand for EV picks up the market will pay close attention to AKE and PLS’s results on Friday. ALB sees net sales growing to $11.3-$12.9 billion, and EBITDA getting as high as $5.1 billion – so given tight supply and rising demand, you may expect positive outlooks from Australian counterparts - Pilbara Minerals and Allkem. Pay attention to their outlook commentary; earnings, </span><span data-contrast="none">cashflows, forward capital expenditure and importantly expectations of lithium pricing - which underpins earnings. </span><span data-contrast="auto">To track lithium companies, refer to Saxo’s Lithium equity theme Basket</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1155077099" paraeid="{bc49160e-6215-4757-9e78-a1722acc67e3}{78}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"> </span></p> </div> <div> <h3 role="heading" aria-level="3" paraid="1545785580" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{236}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="none">Macro data on watch this week</span></h3> <p role="heading" aria-level="3" paraid="1545785580" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{236}"><span data-ccp-props="{'134245418':true,'201341983':0,'335559738':40,'335559739':0,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="771384435" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{230}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span><strong >Monday 20 February</strong></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">US, Canada Market Holiday</span></li> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">China (Mainland) 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Malaysia Trade (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Taiwan Export Orders (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb, flash)</span></li> <li paraid="477913616" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{109}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Thailand Customs-Based Trade Data (Jan)</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':1,'335559739':160,'335559740':330}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Tuesday 21 February</strong></span></p> <ul> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">Australia Judo Bank Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Japan au Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">France S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Eurozone S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">New Zealand PPI (Q4)</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Canada CPI (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Canada Retail Sales (Dec)</span></li> <li paraid="881228825" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{118}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States Existing Home Sales (Jan)</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':1,'335559739':160,'335559740':330}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Wednesday 22 February</strong></span></p> <ul> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Japan Service PPI (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Australia Composite Leading Index (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">New Zealand Cash Rate (22 Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany CPI (Jan, final)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Taiwan Jobless Rate (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany Ifo Business Climate New (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany CPI Prelim MM (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United Kingdom House Prices (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="744451054" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{127}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States FOMC Meeting Minutes (Feb)</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':1,'335559739':160,'335559740':330}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Thursday 23 February</strong></span></p> <ul> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">Australia Capital Expenditure (Q4)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">South Korea Bank of Korea Base Rate (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Singapore Consumer Price Index (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Taiwan Industrial Output (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Eurozone HICP (Jan, final)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States GDP (Q4, 2nd estimate)</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States Initial Jobless Claims</span></li> <li paraid="965756627" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{136}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Thailand Manufacturing Prod YY (Jan)<br /> <br /> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':1,'335559739':160,'335559740':330}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Friday 24 February</strong></span></p> <ul> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Japan CPI (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Singapore Manufacturing Output (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany Detailed GDP (Q4)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment (Mar)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States Personal Income and Consumption (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States Core PCE Price Index (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States UoM Sentiment (Feb, final)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">United States New Home Sales (Jan)</span></li> <li paraid="414787654" paraeid="{46e7214a-c8c1-41ea-9410-c868de2e26de}{145}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none">Canada Current Account C$ (Q4)<br /> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':1,'335559739':160,'335559740':330}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <h3 paraid="1018332336" paraeid="{46a706fa-dc32-4ad8-85a9-a0ddb751b8c0}{19}" class="article-heading--3"><span data-contrast="none">Company earnings to watch</span></h3> <p paraid="1018332336" paraeid="{46a706fa-dc32-4ad8-85a9-a0ddb751b8c0}{19}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="1826509848" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{48}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Monday Feb 20<br /> </strong></span><span data-contrast="none">Williams Cos</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="755720901" paraeid="{46a706fa-dc32-4ad8-85a9-a0ddb751b8c0}{83}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Tuesday Feb 21</strong><br /> </span><span data-contrast="none">Teck Resources, Gapgemini, Engie, HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Singapore Airlines, BHP Group, Alumina, Coles </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="911522193" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{80}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Wednesday Feb 22<br /> </strong></span><span data-contrast="none">Rio Tinto, Santos, Oz Minerals, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, Genmab, Danone, Lloyds Banking Group, Iberdrola, Nvidia, TJX, Stellantis, Baidu, eBay</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="119822974" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{94}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Thursday Feb 23</strong><br /> </span><span data-contrast="none">EssilorLuxottica, Deutsche Telekom, Munich Re, Kuaishou Technology, Eni, Anglo American, BAE Systems, Singapore bank UOB, Qantas, Alibaba</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="451133116" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{112}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Friday Feb 24</strong></span><span data-contrast="none"> <br /> Block (Square), Lynas Rare Earths, Mineral Resources, Allkem and Pilbara Minerals (in lithium), Singapore bank OCBC, BASF, Monster Beverage </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="827666542" paraeid="{46a706fa-dc32-4ad8-85a9-a0ddb751b8c0}{129}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"> </span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1223910781" paraeid="{3d0f41a9-2598-4116-b783-afa2f2d8f733}{42}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"> </span></p> </div></div></div><div class="article-video-title">Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? From US PCE to services data, to RBNZ hike to BHP, Rio results </div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span> <span>Iron Ore</span> <span>Bhp Billiton</span> <span>Tesla</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Ford Motor</span> <span>Saxo Spotlight</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q1 2023 Outlook The Models are Broken</h1> <p>Tue, 07 Feb 2023 07:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Models are used everywhere in the financial world. But what do you do when the models you use don't work anymore? That's what this Quarterly Outlook is all about.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4><strong>An Executive Summary</strong></h4> <p>In the introduction to this outlook for early 2023, Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen argues that our economic models and our assumptions for how market cycles are supposed to work are simply broken. And so should they be, as why should we even want to return to the ‘model’ of central banks engaging in moral hazard and bailing out incumbent wealth, rentiers and risk takers, the rinse-and-repeat we have seen in every cycle since Fed Chair Greenspan bailed out LTCM in 1998? This new post-pandemic and post-Ukraine invasion era we find ourselves in has brought an entirely new set of imperatives beyond bailouts and reinflating asset prices. Instead, we need to brace for the impact of higher inflation for longer as we scramble for supply chain reshoring and redundancy, and as we transform our energy systems to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and reduce our impact on the climate. And it won’t be all pain for all assets. Quite the contrary; it will bring a refreshing return of productive investment and a brighter future for everyone. </p> <p>The return to more productive deployment of capital will have to mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain and resource access imperatives, not pouring money into digital platforms that capture excess profits by monopolising markets and user attention. On that note, our equity strategist Peter Garnry looks at whether the multiple decades of underperformance for equities dealing in tangible assets is ending, with intangibles and financials set to underperform after decades of excess financialisation. He also pokes into the geographies that look the most interesting as supply chains diversify. </p> <p>Our macro strategist Christopher Dembik notes that the worst outcomes for Europe in the wake of the EU shutting itself off from cheap Russian energy were thankfully not realised. Danger and opportunity lie ahead for Europe, which faces the steepest challenges in the new world order, but where the sense of crisis will bring the needed change the quickest. As well, Europe is set to benefit from China, its largest trading partner, coming back online this year. Our market strategist for Greater China, Redmond Wong, looks at where the most potential lies in Chinese equities after China executed a seeming total about-face in its zero-Covid tolerance and other policies that cracked down on the property and technology sectors and were presumed to be the hallmarks of rule under Xi Jinping. Charu Chanana, our market strategist in Singapore, picks up on the rest of Asia, weighing the relative value across several Asian markets. She argues that India and also the traditional exporters will benefit both from renewed demand from China and from investment by both China and OECD countries looking to leverage production – and supply chain diversification potential.</p> <p>In commodities, Ole Hansen looks at the potential for the extension of a bull market in industrial metals as China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, returns in force from lockdowns and not least, as the metal-intensive investment in green energy deepens. The end of China’s lockdowns will also boost crude oil demand by the most in years as China normalises air travel levels. On the supply side, the avoidance of Russian crude and the end of risky, massive drawdowns of much of the US strategic reserves will weigh. Gold could be set to thrive with a turn lower in the USD, but also as a growing roster of countries looks for alternatives to the greenback for maintaining reserves and conduction trade outside the USD system. Our strategist in Australia, Jessica Amir, breaks down what Australia has to offer as a formidable exporter of resources and list of Australian resource companies involved in everything from the EV-battery supply chain to iron ore and gold.</p> <p>With the return of solidly positive interest rates after the seeming endless years of ZIRP and NIRP, especially in Europe, Peter Siks of our CIO office looks at a far better expected return for the traditionally balanced portfolio. This is somewhat ironic, given that 2022 offered the worst nominal returns for traditionally ‘balanced’ stock and equity portfolios in modern memory.</p> <p>FX strategist John Hardy looks at the potential for a turn lower in the USD this year and the likelihood of a much stronger JPY in the first half of the year, chiefly driven by its late-comer status to the central bank tightening party and the exit. Finally, crypto strategist Mads Eberhardt sees the risk of more challenges ahead for crypto, particularly the smaller cryptocurrencies as retail participation risks continuing to wither, even as the longer term prospects will brighten in line with the deepening institutional participation in the space in coming years.</p> <p>We wish you a safe and prosperous 2023. We strongly believe that markets and the global economy are entering a new era. It won’t be an easy transition, but all great transitions bring exciting new opportunities for those willing to walk away from the old assumptions and to look at how their investments and efforts can contribute to the new world taking shape before us. </p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span> <span>Monthly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? Will NZ CPI shock, & Microsoft & Tesla disappoint</h1> <p>Mon, 23 Jan 2023 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Risk on tone supported by lower bond yields and US dollar. Saxo’s equity baskets show the best gains are in sectors benefiting from China’s reopening. If NZ's CPI slows more than expected, the NZDUSD may see profit taking. Chinese New Year brings limited market hours. Australia’s ASX200 to take out a new all-time high, but CPI is in the way. Gold and copper continue to rally up. Oil prices are higher ahead of the EU embargo on Russia. Tech profits expected to dive, but there is room for disappointment. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <p role="heading" aria-level="3" paraid="1651574145" paraeid="{4d832792-3985-40e5-91df-3694c05cf86b}{139}" class="text--body"><em>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week, January 23-27: US GDP, AU NZ CPI, Microsoft & Tesla earnings <br /> <br /> </em><span >Risk on tone supported for now as bond yields hold near lows, along with US dollar index</span></p> </div> US Treasury bond yields trading at some of the lowest levels down about 0.8% from the October peak, but yields are up slightly at 3.48%. Yields look set for lower levels and could even head back down and could drop below the 200-day SMA. The next level we’re watching is if yields fall to 3.22%. If that level is reached, it would theoretically support US equities. We’d also need to see the US dollar remain lower. The US dollar index is now down 10% from its September high, but rose slightly on Friday after hotter than expected US prouder inflation for November, which bolsters the case for the Fed to keep hiking, even if it’s at a slower pace.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Most gains in Saxo's equity baskets are in sectors benefiting from China’s reopening </h3> The Travel, E-commerce basket of stocks are up the most this month, followed by Energy Storage and China Consumer and Technology basket. However year-on Year, the most growth is from Defence which is up 21%.<br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <br /> Economic news brings FX into focus </h3> US fourth-quarter GDP data, European PMIs and the Bank of Canada rate decision, as well as CPI for Australia and NZ will all be watched. NZ Consumer prices are expected broadly to have climbed 7.1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, which could mark CPI is slowing from the prior 7.2% and, more importantly, less than the 7.5% predicted by the Reserve Bank in its most recent forecasts. Given the NZ dollar was one of the strongest currencies last week, it could face profit taking if the data is weaker than expected. <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <br /> Market hours are limited this week, for Chinese New Year</h3> This also means light volume is expected and thus moves could perhaps be amplified on thin trade. China’s market is shut all week (Monday to Friday), Hong Kong’s market is shut for Monday to Wednesday, Singapore’s market is shut for Monday and Tuesday. Australia’s market shut Thursday for Australia Day.<br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <br /> Australia’s ASX200 could likely to take out a new all-time high.....</h3> <div> <p class="text--body">this <span >is </span><span >supported by the rally in commodities and expected higher earnings from mining companies, which make up 25% of the market. However CPI is a focus this week. Our</span><span data-contrast="auto" > </span><span data-contrast="auto" >technical analyst backs up this thinking, that the ASX200 is likely to hit a new all high- </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-au/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-hang-seng-chinaa50-asx200-23012023" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ><span data-contrast="none">for more click here. </span></a><span data-contrast="auto" >But the danger this week is if Q4 CPI is hotter than expected on Wednesday, then equities could see profit taking. However overall sentiment is bullish for the ASX as demand for copper and iron ore is likely to pick up after CNY.</span><span data-contrast="auto" > </span><span data-contrast="auto" >CPI is expected to rise to 5.8% YoY from 5.6% (trimmed Mean CPI). And CPI YoY is expected to rise to 7.7% YoY, from 7.3%. Hotter data could further fuel the AUD and a likely fuel a sell-off in tech stocks and real estate</span><span data-contrast="auto" >. </span><span data-contrast="auto" >In company news to watch, iron ore company Champion Iron (</span><span data-contrast="auto" >CIA</span><span data-contrast="auto" >) reports quarterly earnings. Given the iron ore price is up 66% from its low, its outlook is expected to be optimistic.</span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="1504273254" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{22}" class="text--body"><span ><br /> In commodities Gold and copper are gaining momentum and oil rallies</span></p> <ul> <li class="text--body"><span data-contrast="auto" >The precious metal, <strong>gold</strong>, has been supported by lower yields and the US dollar falling, </span><span data-contrast="auto" >which has supported gold up </span><span data-contrast="auto" >19%</span><span data-contrast="auto" > from its September low. As </span><span data-contrast="auto" >Ole Hansen</span><span data-contrast="auto" > points out we might need to see ETF holdings pick up in Gold, to see longer term investors getting involved, which could support gold higher, or potentially we may see some profit taking. However, gold momentum remains as long as the USD and yields behave. Recall that if the Fed pauses rates and rates peak, we think there is a case for our </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/documents/campaigns/outrageous-predictions/outrageous-predictions-2023-au.pdf?revision=3b17b349-6552-41c4-863b-a05c8d6500a5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" ><span data-contrast="none">outrageous prediction</span></a><span data-contrast="auto" > of gold hitting $3,000 coming true.<br /> </span></li> <li class="text--body"><span data-contrast="auto" ><span data-contrast="auto" ><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Copper </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >trades up </span><span >0.5% to $4.25, its highest level since June last year, continuing its 32% rally o</span></span><span >ff its low on expectations that China will increase buying after the Luna New Year holiday. </span><span >Plus</span><span > there are also disruptions on copper output in Peru, which could impact 2% of global copper output. So given inventory levels are already lower and demand expectations are picking up, copper prices are underpinned.</span></span></li> <li class="text--body"><strong>Gas and oil prices </strong>are also higher too ahead of the EU embargo on Russian products <span >which starts on February 5th. Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% to $82.64, at this level since early November, after two weeks of gains. Refinery demand is supporting prices.</span></li> </ul> </div> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> Tech companies' profits are expected to dive, but earnings estimates could be too optimistic & disappoint</h3> <div> <ul> <li class="text--body">In the <strong>S&P500</strong>(US500.I) tech companies, which make up 26% of the market, are expected to report a quarterly profit drop of 9.2% on average, according to Bloomberg. This could be the biggest tech profit drop since 2016. Forward 12-month earnings of 39% is also expected according to <span data-contrast="auto" >Bloomberg. The danger is that estimates are still too bullish, and markets will likely be disappointed, which would trigger a fall.</span></li> <li class="text--body"><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span ><strong>Overall aggregate S&P500 earnings </strong>are expected to have grown 2.12% in the quarter and miners are expected to deliver the most growth, real estate with the least.</span></li> <li><span >So far, only 55 companies have reported in the S&P500 and earnings have fallen over 4% on average. S<strong>o, the bear case is still a factor for some investors, especially in tech. </strong>More job cuts are expected with margins being squeezed. EV companies are also facing pressure with higher metal prices.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" >On Tuesday </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Microsoft </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >kicks off earning season. Defence giants <strong>Raytheon </strong>and <strong>Lockheed Martin </strong>report on Tuesday. </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Tesla </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >reports Wednesday. On Thursday </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Intel </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >and </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Mastercard</strong> </span><span data-contrast="auto" >report, and steel giant </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Nucor</strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >. On Friday </span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>Chevron</strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >. These could be industry proxies to watch with a major focus on their outlooks.<br /> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> </div> <div> <p paraid="1868584772" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{85}"><span ><br /> Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week to watch <br /> </span></p> </div> <div> <p role="heading" aria-level="2" paraid="2066993253" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{113}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><br /> Monday 23 January</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559738':40,'335559739':0,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="753865735" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{126}"><span data-contrast="none">China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore Market Holiday</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> <li paraid="2034901743" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{133}"><span data-contrast="none">Japan BOJ Meeting Minutes (Dec)</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="2034901743" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{133}"><span data-contrast="none" ></span><strong >Tuesday 24 January</strong><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span data-contrast="none">China, Hong Kong, Taiwan South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore Market Holiday</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span>Australia Judo Bank Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}">Japan au <span >Jibun</span><span > Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI</span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span >UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span ></span><span >Germany S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span ></span><span >France S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span ></span><span >Eurozone S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</span></li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}"><span ></span>US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services</li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}">Thailand Customs-Based Trade Data (Dec)</li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}">Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment (Feb)</li> <li paraid="689683929" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{147}">United Kingdom CBI Trends (Jan)</li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="868682967" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{224}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Wednesday 25 January</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-contrast="none">China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Market Holiday</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span>New Zealand CPI (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Australia Composite Leading Index (Dec</li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}">Australia CPI (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Japan Leading Indicator (Nov, revised)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Singapore Consumer Price Index (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United Kingdom PPI (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}">Thailand 1-Day Repo Rate (25 Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Germany Ifo Business Climate New (Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="53342742" paraeid="{42f3fa4f-2793-45b4-95fd-f5712ec54bfc}{231}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Canada BoC Rate Decision (25 Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="739120874" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{46}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Thursday 26 January</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-contrast="none">Australia, China, Taiwan, India Market Holiday</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span>Japan BOJ Summary of Opinions (Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>South Korea GDP (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Japan Services PPI (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Philippines GDP (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Singapore Manufacturing Output (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Norway Labour Force Survey (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades (Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Canada Business Barometer (Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States Durable Goods (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States GDP (Q4, advance)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States Initial Jobless Claims<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="2112759114" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{53}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States New Home Sales (Dec)</li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="945945037" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{144}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong>Friday 27 January</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></p> </div> <div> <ul> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-contrast="none">China, Taiwan Market Holiday</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"></span>Japan CPI, Overall Tokyo (Jan)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Australia PPI (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>Australia Export and Import Prices (Q4)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States Personal Income and Consumption (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States Core PCE (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States UoM Sentiment (Jan, final)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> <li paraid="531107311" paraeid="{bc97fd65-c703-4d78-8e7c-59ec4346f306}{151}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span>United States Pending Home Sales (Dec)<span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335551550':0,'335551620':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}" ></span></li> </ul> </div> <div> <p paraid="1870227796" paraeid="{94f9945f-7581-402a-b656-e092365e4932}{208}"><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':259}"> </span></p> </div> <strong><br /> </strong></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Jessica Amir</div><div>Market Strategist</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span> <span>Iron Ore</span> <span>Bhp Billiton</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders for the week of 19-23 Dec? US PCE, China LPRs, RBA minutes, possible hints of BOJ policy review and earnings focus on Nike and FedEx</h1> <p>Mon, 19 Dec 2022 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Quieter markets ahead as we head into the year-end, but focus will remain on US PCE data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. China’s reopening may continue to be the bigger focus as holiday season sets in with Chinese New Year in January, likely raising concerns of a wider Covid spread. China’s loan prime rate fixing on watch this week and RBA minutes will likely confirm the bank’s dovish bent, but bigger focus will be on Bank of Japan’s possible hints of a policy review in 2023. On the earnings front, Nike (NKE:xnys), FedEx (FDX:xnys), and Carnival (CCL:xnys) will be the key ones to watch. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><em><span>This is the last <span class="underline; ">Saxo Spotlight</span> for 2022. Our first edition for 2023 will be on 9 January. We would like to wish all our readers a safe and enjoyable festive season.</span></em></strong></h3> <p> </p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>US November PCE may be on course for further easing for now</span></strong></h2> <p><span>US inflation is cooling, but we argue that the debate at this point needs to move away from peak inflation to how low inflation can go and how fast it can reach there. Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, will continue to remain in focus especially after Powell has highlighted it a key metric recently at both the Brookings Institute and the December FOMC press conference. However, PCE may now slow as rapidly as CPI with the two key restraining components – goods and energy – likely to play a smaller part in PCE. Expectations are for a November reading of 4.7% YoY reading vs a previous reading of 5.0% YoY while core is expected to come in at 5.5% YoY from 6% YoY in October. Still, risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside going into 2023 as financial conditions have been easing and China reopening brings a fresh wave of inflation risks. Therefore, despite a soft PCE, it will remain hard for the Fed to part with its hawkish stance. The first of 2023 will bring December ISM prints, which will be key to watch after the flash S&P PMIs indicated quickening economic concerns. The FOMC minutes from the December 14 meeting will also be due on January 5. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The focus of China’s economic data during the three festive weeks will be on PMIs</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The economic calendar is light in the three festive weeks ahead in China and the primary focus will be on the official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI scheduled to release on Dec 31, 2022, Caixin China PMI Manufacturing on January 2, 2023, and Caixin China PMI Services on January 4, 2023. These reports cover the month of December 2022 when China across the country has substantially exited from stringent Covid containment restrictions. As high-frequency data are yet to show meaningful pick-ups in economic activities, these December PMI readings are expected to stay in the contractionary territory. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Watch for Bank of Japan’s policy review hints, Japan CPI also due later in the week</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The Bank of Japan is set to meet on Tuesday this week, and no change is expected in its monetary policy stance. The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at -0.1% while maintaining its cap on the 10-Year JGB at 0.25%. Even as inflation increased to 3.6% YoY in October, the BOJ remains focused on achieving wage inflation before it considers a shift in policy stance. However, keep an eye out for any comments about a monetary policy review, which can trigger a strong JPY correction. There have been some mentions by BOJ members regarding a review of how monetary policy is conducted, they have generally been dismissed. While the timeline is still expected to be closer or after Governor Kuroda’s retirement in spring, any notes on who will succeed him or what policy change can be expected would be critical. Japan will also release November’s CPI on Friday. Expectations are for an uptick in core to 3.7% YoY while the headline gets closer to 4% YoY. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>RBA minutes remain on watch to confirm a dovish bias</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Despite the major global central banks maintaining their hawkish stance last week, the minutes from the Reserve bank of Australia’s December meeting will likely confirm a dovish bent. This comes despite a strong labor market report last week, that showed strong hiring demand and record low unemployment rate may continue to fuel more inflationary pressures especially as China’s reopening and policy stimulus gathers further traction in 2023. This could mean an environment for underperformance for Aussie assets for now, after AUD was the weakest G10 currency against the USD last week.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Key earnings this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Earnings to focus on this week are Nike (NKE:xnys), FedEx (FDX:xnys), and Carnival (CCL:xnys). As Peter Garnry highlighted in his </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-nike-fedex-and-carnival-16122022"><span>note</span></a><span>, with recent sell-side analyst upgrades, the pressure is on Nike to deliver on the outlook for 2023. For FedEx, the situation is completely opposite as revenue expectations have come down to zero growth over the two next quarters suggesting a hangover for the logistics company following the boom days of the pandemic.</span></p> <ul> <li><span class="underline; ">Monday</span><span>: HEICO</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Tuesday</span><span>: Nike, FedEx, General Mills, FactSet Research Systems</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Wednesday</span><span>: Toro, Micron Technology, Cintas, Carnival</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Thursday</span><span>: Paychex, CarMax</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">Friday</span><span>: Nitori</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span class="underline; ">Monday 19 December</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Malaysia Trade (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>Germany IFO surveys (Dec)</span></li> <li><span>US NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)</span></li> <li><span>EU Energy Ministers Meeting</span></li> </ul> <p><span class="underline; ">Tuesday 20 December</span></p> <ul> <li><span>China Loan Prime rate 1Y/5Y</span></li> <li><span>Germany PPI (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>Japan BOJ Interest Rate Decision</span></li> <li><span>Taiwan Export orders (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>US Building Permits, Housing Starts (Nov)</span></li> </ul> <p><span class="underline; ">Wednesday 21 December</span></p> <ul> <li><span>South Korea 20 Days exports and imports (Dec)</span></li> <li><span>Canada CPI (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>US consumer confidence (Dec)</span></li> </ul> <p><span class="underline; ">Thursday 22 December</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Bank Indonesia meeting</span></li> <li><span>Taiwan Unemployment rate (22 December)</span></li> <li><span>UK GDP (Q3 F)</span></li> <li><span>US Initial jobless claims (Dec 17) and 3Q GDP Final </span></li> </ul> <p><span class="underline; ">Friday 23 December</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Japan CPI inflation (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>Taiwan Industrial output (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>Singapore CPI inflation (Nov)</span></li> <li><span>US Durable goods orders, personal Income, Core PCE price index, and new home sales (Nov)</span></li> </ul> </div></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders for the week of 12-16 Dec? A flurry of central bank meetings from Fed to BOE to ECB, US/UK CPI, China’s reopening and Adobe earnings</h1> <p>Mon, 12 Dec 2022 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">It will likely be a volatile week ahead with a host of tier 1 economic data packed along with an array of central bank meetings. Tuesday’s US CPI release is expected to come in softer, but core and shelter measures will be key to watch. The next day, FOMC will likely hike by 50bps but terminal rate projection and a stronger pushback to 2023 rate cut expectations will be the important messages to watch. Other central banks like ECB and Bank of England are also expected to downshift to a smaller pace of rate hikes. Meanwhile, China’s reopening momentum will likely continue to build further despite weaker expectations for November activity data, and a further slowdown Australia’s employment growth remains on watch. Earnings from Adobe (ADBE:xnas) and Trip.com (TCOM:xnas) will also be on the radar. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Softer US CPI to offer mixed signals and considerable volatility</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Last month’s softer US CPI report was a turning point in the markets and inflation expectations have turned markedly lower since then. Consensus is looking for another softer report in November, with headline rate expected at 7.3% YoY, 0.3% MoM (from 7.7% YoY, 0.4% MoM) while the core is expected to be steadier at 6.1% YoY, 0.3% MoM (from 6.3% YoY, 0.3% MoM). While the case for further disinflationary pressures can be built given lower energy prices, easing supply constraints and holiday discounts to clear excess inventory levels, but PPI report on Friday indicated that goods inflation could return in the months to come and wage inflation also continues to remain strong. Easing financial conditions and China’s reopening can be the other key factors to watch, which could potentially bring another leg higher in inflation especially if there is premature easing from the Fed. Shelter inflation will once again be key to watch, which means clear signs of inflation peaking out will continue to remain elusive. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Why volatility in equites could pick up this week and what we learnt from prior inflationary out outs</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Will the inflation read show CPI fell to 7.3% in November as the market expects, down from 7.7% YoY? The risk is that inflation doesn’t fall as forecast, and that may likely push up bond yields and pressure equites lower. We saw this set up play out on </span><span>Friday. November’s producer price index showed wholesale prices rose more than expected, which spooked markets that this week’s CPI could be bleak. As such bonds were sold off on Friday, pushing yields up; with the 10-year bond yield rising 10bps to 3.58%, while equities were pressure lower. Consider over the past six months, the S&P 500 has seen an average move of about 3% in either direction on the day US CPI has been released, according to Bloomberg. We haven’t seen these moves since 2009. Also consider, the S&P 500 has fallen on seven of the 11 CPI reporting days this year.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>December FOMC and dot plot may have little new to offer, so focus remains on Powell’s press conference</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The Fed is expected to lift its Federal Funds Rate target by 50bps to 4.25-4.50%, according to the consensus as well as the general commentary from Fed officials signalling a downshift in the pace of rate hikes. The updated economic projections will also be released, and are expected to show a higher terminal rate than the September projections (4.6%), as has been alluded to by Chair Powell at the November FOMC and in remarks made in December. But that means little room for market surprise as the Fed funds futures are pricing in a terminal rate of 4.96% in May 2023. Easing financial conditions and expected China stimulus could mean Fed continues to chase the inflation train from the back into the next year as well, so Powell’s press conference remains key to watch. There will have to be a lot of focus on pushing out the rate cuts of ~50bps that are priced in for next year, and emphasise that the Fed will not ease prematurely if Powell and committee want to avoid further easing of financial conditions. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>China is expected to convene the Central Economic Work Conference this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The Chinese Communist Party is expected to have its annual Central Economic Work Conference this week to formulate the macroeconomic policy framework for 2023. Investors are expecting supportive initiatives including measures to ease the stress in the ailing property sector. The conference will set out directions and blueprints but short of releasing key policy targets which will be for the National People’s Conference to be held next March.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>A weak set of Chinese activity data is expected</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting that China’s retail sales shrank sharply by 3.9% Y/Y in November. The potential weakness is likely attributed to poor performance of auto sales, dining-in activities, and sales during the “double-11” online shopping festival in the midst of Covid-19 lockdowns during the best part of November. November auto sales in China fell by 9.2 %Y/Y and by 10.5% M/M. Courier parcels processed on Nov 11 fell 20.7% Y/Y. The growth in industrial production is expected to fall to 3.7% Y/Y in November from 5% to 3.7%, following a weak November NBS manufacturing PMI and soft high-frequency data of steel production. Year-to-date fixed asset investment is expected to edge down to 5.6% from 5.8%, dragged by stringent pandemic control practices. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>ECB also likely to downshift to a smaller rate hike</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to slow down its pace of rate hikes to a 50bps increase this week. Headline inflation eased slightly in November, coming in at 10.0% YoY (exp. 10.4%), but was overshadowed by an unexpected rise in core inflation 6.6% YoY (exp. 6.3%, prev. 6.4%). While there is likely to remain some split in ECB members at this week’s meeting, the central bank’s Chief Economist Lane remains inclined to take into account the scale of tightening done so far. There is also uncertainty on the announcement of quantitative tightening.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Bank of England may remain more divided than the other major central banks</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The Bank of England is also expected to follow the Fed and the ECB and downshift to a smaller rate hike this week, but the decision will likely see a split vote. A host of key data, including GDP, employment and inflation will be due this week in the run up to the BOE decision, and significant positive surprises could tilt the market pricing more in favour of a larger move which also creates a bigger risk of disappointment from the central bank. Headline annualised inflation advanced to 11.1% Y/Y in October, while the core rate remained at an elevated level of 6.5%. Consensus expects inflation to cool slightly to 10.9% Y/Y in November, but the core to remain unchanged at 6.5% Y/Y. Wage pressures are also likely to be sustained, and the cooling in the labor market will remain gradual.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>In Australia, this week the focus will be on consumer confidence and employment data </span></strong></h2> <p><span>There are a couple of economic read outs that could move the market needle, the </span><span>ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) this week. Weakening </span><span>confidence is expected; starting with Consumer Confidence for December (released on Tuesday), followed by Business Confidence for November. Employment reports are due on Thursday for November, and likely to show employment fell; 17,000 jobs are expected to be added, down from the 32,200 that were added in October. So focus will be on the AUD and a potential pull back if the data is weaker than expected.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong><span>Iron ore equites to see volatility </span></strong></span><strong><span>China reopening talk vs shut downs pre lunar new year</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The iron ore (SCOA) trading at four month highs $110.80 </span><span>rallying as China has been easing restrictions, plus there are whispers Chinese property developers could get more support, which would support demand for iron ore rising. However we mentioned on Friday, why iron ore could pull back, as buying volume appears slowing. So be mindful of potential pull back in iron ore pricing and mining equities. Secondly, consider seasonable halts of Chinese steel plants ahead of the Lunar New year holiday. Restocking typically occurs 5-8 weeks before the holiday, but plants could be closed earlier, due to poor profits and weaker demand. This could cause volatility in iron ore and iron ore equities. So, keep an eye on iron ore majors, Vale, Fortescue Metals, Champion Iron, BHP and Rio as they could see profit taking after rallying ~25-55% from October. </span><span></span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>China’s new aggregate financing and RMB loans are expected to have bounced in November</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Market economists, as surveyed by Bloomberg, are expecting China’s new aggregate financing to bounce to RMB 2,100 billion in November from RMB 907.9 billion in October and new RMB loans to rise to RMB 1,400 billion in November from RMB 615.2 billion as People’s Bank of China urged banks to extend credits to support private enterprises including property developers. Less bond issuance by local governments and corporate and weak loan demand however might have weighed on the pace of credit expansion in November.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Key earnings to watch: Adobe (ADBE:xnas), Trip.com (TCOM:xnas)</span></strong></h2> <p><span>In his </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-adobe-in-figma-limbo-09122022"><span>note</span></a><span> for key earnings this week, Peter Garnry highlights Adobe and Trip.com. The past five earnings releases have all led to a negative price reaction in Adobe shares as growth has come down while the cost of capital has gone up. Can Adobe buck the trend next when the company reports earnings? Another question investors will be asking is an update on the company’s $20bn acquisition of the industry challenger Figma, which was delayed due to a US Department of Justice investigation of the deal. Adobe reports FY22 Q4 (ending 30 November) earnings on Thursday with revenue growth expected at 10% y/y and EPS of $3.50 up 36% y/y as cost-cutting exercises are expected to improve profitability. Adobe is expected to end the fiscal year with revenue of $17.6bn and strong free cash flow generation of $7.3bn which translates into 5% free cash flow yield. </span></p> <p><span>Recently the Chinese government has chosen to move ahead with reopening the economy taking on the associated Covid risks and this could be good for the outlook for travel activity and thus Trip.com. The Chinese online travel agency platform is expected to report earnings on Wednesday with analysts expecting revenue growth of 22% y/y. Analysts expect revenue to increase 50% y/y in 2023 to CNY 29.6bn.</span></p> <p><span>• Monday: Oracle<br /> </span><span >•</span><span > </span><span >Tuesday: DiDi Global<br /> </span><span >•</span><span > </span><span >Wednesday: Lennar, Trip.com, Nordson, Inditex<br /> </span><span >•</span><span > </span><span >Thursday: Adobe<br /> </span><span >•</span><span > </span><span >Friday: Accenture, Darden Restaurants</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span class="underline; ">Monday 12 December</span></p> <p><span>United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Oct)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance (Oct)<br /> </span><span >India CPI and Industrial Output (Nov)<br /> </span><span >China (Mainland) M2, New Yuan Loans, Loan Growth (Nov)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Tuesday 13 December</span></p> <p><span>Germany CPI (Nov, final)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom Labour Market Report (Oct)<br /> </span><span >Hong Kong Industrial Production, PPI (Q3)<br /> </span><span >Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)<br /> </span><span >United States CPI (Nov)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Wednesday 14 December</span></p> <p><span>Japan Tankan Survey (Q4)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom Inflation (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone Industrial Production (Oct)<br /> </span><span >United States Fed Funds Target Rate (14 Dec)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Thursday 15 December</span></p> <p><span>New Zealand GDP (Q3)<br /> </span><span >Japan Trade Balance (Nov)<br /> </span><span >South Korea Export and Import Growth (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Australia Employment (Nov)<br /> </span><span >China (Mainland) Industrial Output, Retail Sales, Urban Investment (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Philippines Policy Interest Rate (15 Dec)<br /> </span><span >Switzerland SNB Policy Rate (Q4)<br /> </span><span >Norway Key Policy Rate (15 Dec)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom BOE Bank Rate (Dec)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone ECB Deposit and Refinancing Rate (Dec)<br /> </span><span >United States Initial Jobless Claims<br /> </span><span >United States Retail Sales and Industrial Production (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Taiwan Discount Rate (Q4)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Friday 16 December</span></p> <p><span>Australia Judo Bank Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >Japan au Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI<br /> </span><span >UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >Germany S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >France S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >Eurozone S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)<br /> </span><span >Singapore Non-Oil Exports (Nov)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom Retail Sales (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone Total Trade Balance (Oct)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone HICP (Nov, final)</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>Sign up for our Outrageous Predictions 2023 webinar - </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/campaigns/webinars/2022/12/14/apac-op-2023"><span>APAC edition: Wed, 14 Dec, 11.30am SGT<br /> </span></a></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s investors & traders radars for the week 28 Nov-2 Dec? US eco data and Fed’s Powell, China PMIs, EU and Australia inflation</h1> <p>Mon, 28 Nov 2022 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A pivotal post-holiday week ahead kicked off with risk-off due to protests in China over the Zero covid policy, and China PMIs due this week could potentially signal demand weakness as well. The week is also key for US data and Fed as financial conditions are the easiest since May and more pushback may be on the cards with the most hawkish members of the Fed board, Powell and Bullard, on the wires this week before the FOMC quiet period kicks in. We also get ISM manufacturing, PCE inflation and jobs data that will be key for the dollar. Eurozone inflation may soften, but that won’t be enough for the ECB to take the foot off the pedal, while Australian CPI will pressure the RBA to continue with its steady rate hikes. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>An important week ahead for incoming US data: ISM manufacturing, PCE inflation and jobs data to be key for the dollar</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This week will offer an interesting test for markets, including the US dollar, which trades at pivotal levels, as we have a look at the next important data macro data points out of the US, especially the PCE inflation data and the Friday November jobs report. Core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% MoM in October from 0.5% previously. In addition, we’ll have a look at the ISM manufacturing survey for the month on Thursday, which is also expected to slip into contraction after the decline in S&P flash PMIs last week resulted in further easing of Fed tightening expectations. The question for the run-up into the December 14 FOMC meeting and in the month or so beyond is how long the market can continue to celebrate the Fed easing off the accelerator, when the reason it is doing so is that </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/macro-insights-weighing-the-odds-of-a-recession-24112022"><span>economic slowing</span></a><span> and an eventual recession threaten. Normally, a recession is associated with poor market performance as profits fall and credit risks mount. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Bullard and Powell speak – pushback against easing financial conditions?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>While the economic data continues to slow, and markets continue to cheer on that, it will key for Fed members to bring the focus back to easing of financial conditions and consider what that means for inflation. Chicago Fed national financial conditions index eased further in the week of November 18, bringing financial conditions to their easiest levels since May. Most of the Fed members that have spoken since that soft CPI release for October have pushed back against pivot expectations, but it hasn’t been enough. Further pushback is still needed if the Fed is serious about bringing inflation under control, and only the most hawkish members of the committee Bullard and Powell may be able to deliver that. Both will be on the wires this week. Bullard speaks on Monday while Powell discusses the economic outlook and labor market on Wednesday. Other Fed members like Williams, Bowman, Cook, Logan and Evans will also be on the wires. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>China PMIs likely to show demand weakness, Asia PMIs also due</span></strong></h2> <p><span>China’s NBS manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 49.0 in November, further into the contractionary territory, from 49.2 October, according to the survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg. The imposition of movement restrictions in many large cities has incurred disruption to economic activities. High-frequency data such as steel rebar output, cement plants’ capacity utilization rates, and container throughputs have weakened in November versus October. Likewise, the Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 49.0 (Bloomberg survey) in November from 49.2 in October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the NBS Non-manufacturing to slow to 48.0. in November from 48.7 in October, on the enlargement of pandemic containment measures.</span></p> <p><span>PMIs for other Asian countries are also due to be reported this week, and the divergence between the tech-dependent North Asian countries like Taiwan and South Korea vs. more domestic-oriented South Asian countries like India and Indonesia will likely continue, with the latter outperforming. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>EUR may be watching the flash Eurozone CPI release </span></strong></h2> <p><span>Eurozone inflation touched double digits for October, and the flash release for November is due this week. The headline rate of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is expected to ease slightly to 10.4% YoY from 10.7% YoY last month. The core rate that excludes food and energy prices is forecast to however remain unchanged at 5% YoY. This print will be key for markets as the magnitude of the ECB’s next rate hike at the December meeting is still uncertain, and about 60bps is priced in for now. But even with a slight cooling in inflation, which will most likely be driven by lower energy costs, there is a possibility that inflation will likely remain high in the coming months as winter months progress and cost of living gets worse. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Australia’s economy continues to weaken. Retail slides. CPI data is the next catalyst </span></strong></h2> <p><span>Australia has continued to receive mostly weaker than expected economic data, that support the RBA’s dovish tone. Today Australian retail trade data unexpected fell, showing sales dropped 0.2% from the prior month. This reflects that </span>consumers are feeling the strain of inflation and rising interest rates. As a house, Saxo thinks further weakness in spending is likely ahead in 4Q and into 2023, with the full impact of rate hikes passing through households, and increasing amount of Australian in financial duress. This view is somewhat supported by the RBA’s thinking. The data the RBA will be watching next is ; <span>Australian inflation data for October, released Wednesday 30 November. Inflation is likely to have fallen over the month, however consensus expects inflation to have increase year on year, up 7.6% year on year. If the market thinking comes to fruition, this would show Australian inflation rose from the prior reading (whereby CPI rose 7.3% yoy). Regardless, if inflation does rise, we think the RBA will likely save face, and keep hiking rates by 0.25%, with its next hike due December 6. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Twitter to launch its ‘Verified’ service</span></strong></h2> <p><span>After Musk acquired Twitter last month for $44 billion, he plans to "tentatively" roll out its verified service on December 2, with multiple colours for different types of users. Blue checks will be allotted to people, while verified company accounts will get gold checks and grey marks will be given to governments. Musk said all verified accounts will be manually authenticated, before the check activates, which will be cumbersome. Twitter recently halted the launch of its $8 verified service, as it failed to cease impersonation issues the company has been having. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Key earnings to watch this week </span></strong></h2> <p><span>Peter Garnry highlights earnings results to watch in his <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-q3-earnings-season-is-coming-to-an-end-25112022">note</a>. Pinduoduo on Monday is the key earnings focus in China with analysts expecting Q3 revenue growth of 44% y/y and the EBITDA margin staying at healthy levels around 21.2%. The main menu next week is on Wednesday with earnings from US technology companies Salesforce and Snowflake. Analysts expect Salesforce FY23 Q3 (ending 31 October) revenue growth to decline to 14% y/y down from 27% y/y a year ago and analysts expect Snowflake to report FY23 Q3 (ending 31 October) revenue growth of 61% y/y down from 110% y/y a year ago. Expectations for both companies highlight the slowdown in technology enterprise spending that we have seen from other technology companies including Intel, HP etc.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Monday, Nov 28</span></h3> <p><span>Eurozone M3 (Oct)<br /> </span><span >UK CBI Retail Sales (Nov)<br /> </span><span >U.S. Fed Bullard at MarketWatch Live Event</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Tuesday, Nov 29</span></h3> <p><span>U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov)<br /> </span><span >U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speech<br /> </span><span >Japan Unemployment Rate (Oct)<br /> </span><span >Japan Retail Sales (Oct)</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Wednesday, Nov 30</span></h3> <p><span>U.S. ADP Private Employment (Nov)<br /> </span><span >U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)<br /> </span><span >U.S. Fed Chair Powell speech<br /> </span><span >Eurozone HICP (Nov, flash)<br /> </span><span >Germany Unemployment Rate (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Japan Industrial Production (Oct)<br /> </span><span >Japan Housing Starts (Oct)<br /> </span><span >China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov)<br /> </span><span >China NBS Non-manufacturing PMI (Nov)<br /> </span><span >India Real GDP (Q3)<br /> </span><span >Thailand Bank of Thailand policy meeting</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Thursday, Dec 1</span></h3> <p><span>U.S. PCE (Oct)<br /> </span><span >U.S. ISM Manufacturing (Nov)<br /> </span><span >U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct)<br /> </span><span >Japan Capital Spending (Q3)<br /> </span><span >Japan Consumer Confidence (Nov)<br /> </span><span >China Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (Nov)</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Friday, Dec 2</span></h3> <p><span>U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)<br /> </span><span >U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone PPI (Oct)</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key earnings releases this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span class="underline; ">Monday</span><span>: Pinduoduo, Capitaland, H World Group</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Tuesday</span><span>: Li Auto, DiDi Global, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, Crowdstrike, HP Enterprise, NetApp, Shaw Communication</span></p> <p><span class="underline; ">Wednesday</span><span>: Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Splunk, Hormel Foods, KE Holdings</span></p> <p><span><span class="underline; ">Thursday</span>: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Marvell Technology, Veeva Systems, Ulta Beauty, Zscaler, Dollar General, Kroger</span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Daily Dose of financial insights for investors and traders; retailers not exposed to China surge 20%, those pegged to Chinese demand crumble</h1> <p>Sun, 27 Nov 2022 22:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Six minute video insights for investors and traders; retailer shares not exposed to China surge 20%, while those pegged to Chinese demand such as Jd.com crumble. Here is what to watch this week that could be the next catalysts for equities from PCE data to jobs. Plus why commodities could be at risk with iron ore shipments falling ahead of the latest China lockdowns. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><span >S&P500 is out of a bear market; retailers outperform, China exposed stocks cop a blow. Nasdaq 100 still in the bear woods, down 40% </span></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"></h3> The<strong> </strong>S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week with retailers shares rising the most; <strong>Best Buy</strong> rose 12%+, <strong>Ross Stores</strong> followed), while China’s <strong>Jd.com</strong> fell 12%. All in all; the S&P500 is up 12% from its October low and 16% away from its all-time high (meaning it’s officially out of a bear market). While the Nasdaq 100 is still in a bear market, down over 40% from its high, and up just 10% from its October low after gaining 0.7% last week. This shows tech investor are concerned as Chinese covid cases are rising and forward earnings is likely to be diminished again. A lot of tech companies are pegged to Chinese consumer demand, and a lot of tech companies make their product<span >s </span>in China (<strong>Apple</strong> makes most of its iPhones in China). As for what to watch this week that could cause market volatility; America’s ADP employment data, GPD estimates, consumer confidence and the closely watched Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) are released. Given the Fed meets in just three weeks it will be watching for further clues inflation is slowing and that employment is waning (which is expected), as that gives it impetus to be less aggressive with hikes.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">The Australian share market is just 5% off its all time high; but seems vulnerable</h3> <p class="text--body"><span >The Aussie share market has gained 12% from its October low, after rising 1.5% last week; with </span><strong >Virgin Money</strong><span > was up the most last week, about 23%, on upgrading its outlook, while gold company </span><strong >Ramelius Resources</strong><span > rose 15% on maintaining its production outlook. This week stocks exposed to China are vulnerable of a pullback given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests. So be mindful investors could be looking to take profits or write options for downside protection on China concerns. It also means commodities, oil – iron ore, copper, lithium may see demand slow down and their prices fall – that’s important as its underpin some of our largest companies profits. Fresh data on Friday showed the major iron ore companies, </span><strong >BHP, Rio, Fortescue,</strong><span > will be shipping almost 6% less than last year in the final quarter of this year. So the risk is the situation in China worsens, iron ore shipments could continue to fall and hurt iron ore majors earnings and shares. Early Monday morning, iron ore trades 0.6% lower. Inversely; note that stocks not exposed to China could likely continue to rally given it’s the first Christmas with no global lockdowns (excluding China). Consider looking at retailers doing well following Black Friday sales and ahead of the likely Santa rally; Shares in </span><strong >JB Hi Fi, Harvey Norman, Premier Investments</strong><span > (owner of Jay Jays and Peter Alexander) are all trading up 20% from June. So they could be worth watching as examples. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Asian markets are on notice this week </span></h3> <strong ><br /> </strong>All eyes are on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 which could be vulnerable of pulling back and trimming their 20% and 8% respective gains from their October lows, amid new lockdowns and unrest. <br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Commodities in focus; demand likely to slow from China, production increases</span></h3> <strong ><br /> </strong><span ><strong>Oil </strong>(WTI) trades 0.3% lower in early trade Monday at $76.01 after falling 2% on Friday, losing almost 5% in total over the week. </span><span >The bottom line is oil prices almost back at January levels on forward demand likely slowing, while production is rising. BP </span><span >is restarting its</span><span ></span><span > Rotterdam refinery. Iraq plans to start increasing oil export capacity from its southern ports from 2023, adding up to 250,000 barrels a day next year and as much as 1.5 million by 2025. This is good for consumers and inflation though, and it also gives room for the share market to be supported higher as the Fed has ammunition to be less aggressive with rates (if inflation pressures from oil remain contained). <br /> <br /> </span> <p><span > <br /> For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-spotlight-28-nov-2022-28112022">Spotlight</a>. <br /> <br /> For a global look at markets – tune into our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a>.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span> <br /> <br /> </span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Jessica Amir</div><div>Market Strategist</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>InflationSG</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>Asia-Pacific Themes</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>Weekly Outlook</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q4 2022 Outlook Winter is coming</h1> <p>Tue, 04 Oct 2022 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The macropolitical and economic landscape has sent freezing weather in over the financial markets. How will you navigate the cold winter?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">An Executive Summary </h4> <p class="text--body">Our outlook for Q4 2022 simply recognises the reality that winter is coming, in both the literal and figurative senses. First is the literal sense as Europe and the UK in particular brace for the impact of a winter season that will likely bring with it an economic winter. The power and gas crisis will reach peak impact due to the increased demand during winter heating season, even if prices have fallen considerably. Our macro strategist Christopher Dembik focuses on how Europe can absorb the tremendous headwinds of the energy crisis without turning the lights out entirely, with observers excessively pessimistic on the European outlook. This will include reducing demand through more efficiency, longer-term investments in nuclear, and better buildout of the necessary infrastructure for the green transformation. </p> <p class="text--body"> In China, our market strategist Redmond Wong notes that the focus on renewables is far less intense. China has moved to secure coal supplies amidst the spike in oil and especially LNG prices in recent quarters, preferring to focus on more efficient use of its coal-fired baseload capacity and the most aggressive buildout of nuclear power of any major economy. For the rest of developed and emerging Asia, market strategist Charu Chanana notes that the soaring prices for LNG have altered the energy security for the region, to the detriment of weaker economies. The response will come in a variety of forms, from Japan’s renewed interest in nuclear despite the 2011 Fukushima disaster, to the intriguing prospect of energy increasingly trading in non-US dollar currencies, as already seen in India’s purchase of Russian crude with roubles. Our Australian market strategist Jessica Amir zeroes in on the factors driving a renaissance of interest in nuclear energy and looks at where to find the companies and ETFs in a rather difficult-to-navigate nuclear investment space. </p> <p class="text--body"> Now on to the chief driver of asset valuations since the Fed’s dramatic pivot in November of last year: the trajectory of monetary policy. The coming quarter and first part of winter are likely to bring what Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen dubs “peak tightness”. The market will finally manage to catch up to where the peak Fed rate is likely to rise by early next year, after getting it so wrong in hoping for a policy pivot toward decelerating tightening pressure in Q3. In turn, that policy tightness will lead to a recession, already on the way in Europe but spreading elsewhere next year, eventually even to the US, where the economy has proven far more resilient than the market expected. </p> <p class="text--body"> In equities, the emphasis from the head of equity and quant strategy Peter Garnry is on how the coming winter will inevitably drive recession risks, as already seen with the pressure on consumer and discretionary stocks. He also explores how the extraordinary pressure on Europe can drive necessary innovation that should allow the continent to come out the other side with a far more competitive economy. Still, an overriding risk for growth and equity valuations is the cost of de-globalisation, which will reverse many of the trends in equities and the supply chains that companies have hyper-tuned over the last 12 years. </p> <p class="text--body"> Head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen sees less drama for commodities relative to the intense volatility in the months since Russia invaded Ukraine, as ongoing supply concerns vie with shrinking demand concerns for supremacy. One interesting twist in Q4 will be how the crude oil market absorbs a halt of the Biden administration’s release of US strategic reserves if this proceeds according to plan in October. </p> <p class="text--body">In the FX outlook, John Hardy, the head of FX strategy, asks whether peak tightness in the anticipated trajectory of the Fed rate hike cycle will likely also bring peak US dollar, which has provided its own wintry pressure on global liquidity and asset prices for the last eleven months. Elsewhere in FX, will the market force the Bank of Japan to capitulate on its yield-curve-control policy, possibly setting up the yen for spectacular volatility this coming quarter? It’s also worth noting that this is the third quarter running in the massive divergence of the JPY weakness relative to Chinese yuan (CNH and CNY) strength, the latter still in relative terms despite the yuan being allowed to slip considerably lower versus the strong USD in Q3; it’s an important and tense situation that remains unresolved. </p> <p class="text--body">In crypto, the market failed to revive in the quarter even with a much-anticipated Ethereum platform shift to proof-of-stake from proof-of-work. As our crypto strategists Mads Eberhardt and quant strategist Anders Nysteen suggest, the risk of a “crypto-winter” continues as global liquidity dries up on the headwind of policy tightening, not to mention the fear of stricter regulation of the space. Still, there are plenty of bright spots, with burgeoning innovation in the industry finding new applications for crypto-related blockchain technology. </p> <p class="text--body">Finally, this outlook also features the usual rundown of the longer-term technical outlook for critical assets, as we revisit the critical US 10-year treasury yield chart, the US S&P 500 index and where the ultimate depths of this bear market may lie, and the EURUSD exchange rate after the symbolic parity level was reached—and then some—on the downside in Q3. </p> <p class="text--body">We wish you a safe and prosperous Q4. Given the stark challenges that lie ahead for asset markets in a world beset with grinding supply side challenges, and as policymakers clamp down to fight inflation, it’s a difficult time. At the same time, it’s worth keeping in mind that opportunity and longer-term market returns rise as a function of deteriorating current asset prices. </p> <a class="v2-btn v2-btn-primary" href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products">Explore products at Saxo</a></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 03 Oct 2022 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">There are some big macro worries as we enter the final quarter of the year. We are looking at not just how the UK crisis could develop further, but also which other country/market could succumb to the US yields or dollar strength as market disruptions are likely to widen. Geopolitics also remains a key focus amid Putin’s military losses, as this could mean he could further try to choke Europe and the world of key supplies. A significant production cut from OPEC+ is already making headlines, but China markets are away for the Golden Week. Reserve Bank of Australia may need to delay slowing down its pace of rate hikes, and brace for more profit warnings as well ahead of the Q3 earnings season which goes into full swing in two weeks.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>US ISM indices and payrolls data to continue the economic optimism, spurring risk off in the markets</span></strong></h2> <p><span>As the US economy continues to stay strong despite the aggressive Fed tightening, markets continue to be beaten out. Some respite was seen in the US yields and the US dollar last week, but data due this week could bring further risk-off with markets starting to price out some rate hike expectations for next year with the risks emerging from crisis in UK and possibly more crisis coming due to the run higher in US yields and USD. Data will likely show continued strength in the US economy and labor markets, especially ahead of the midterm elections. ISM manufacturing for September is due in the US session today, and Bloomberg consensus estimates signal some signs of a slowdown to 52.1 in September from 52.8 in August – that should likely be underpinned by improving supply chains, while new orders should remain upbeat and keep the sentiment positive. ISM services follows on Wednesday, and may also moderate as the services sector cools down from a peak, but will stay robust. Finally, the payrolls data on Friday is set for another positive surprise after sub-200k weekly jobless claims last week. Bloomberg consensus estimate as of now stand at gains of 250k for September from 315k last month, with unemployment rate and average hourly earnings steady at 3.7% and 0.3% respectively. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Russia’s counter-attack risks</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Less than a day after Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian cities and claims for these to be Russian territory, parts of these cities have been recaptured by Ukraine over the weekend. That is another military setback for Russia, and would possibly mean that Putin would be keen to press Europe’s energy nerves further as winter demand for energy starts to flow in. There are two key risks to highlight here: 1) Russia could cut supplies from Ukraine as well further to choke Europe and the world of energy and food supplies; and 2) there is an imminent threat of use of some low-yield nuclear weapons given how desperate Russia is now. Any of these moves could spur further risk off in the markets this week, and potentially, the effect will spill over to energy and agriculture markets, so think oil, gas, wheat, soybeans and the likes.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>OPEC+ meeting on October 5 may bring production cuts</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Oil prices were supported at the end of last week amid hopes of a production cut by OPEC+ members at their meeting this week. There were some reports that OPEC members have started talking about cuts with Russia proposing a 1 mln barrels per day cut, a reduction towards which they are unlikely to contribute much as they are already producing below their quota. At its last meeting on September 5, the group agreed a token reduction of 100,000 barrels a day for October, despite calls from consuming nations to help tame rampant inflation by keeping the taps open. With gasoline prices retreating in the US, some of that external pressure may now be easing, and that further raises the prospects of some price-supportive action.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Reserve Bank of Australia may step away from moving to a slower rate hike pace</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on Tuesday, October 4. Governor Lowe had previously signalled that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow from here after four consecutive rate hikes of the magnitude of 50bps. However, money markets and Bloomberg consensus forecast is still calling for another 50bps rate hike at the October meeting suggesting that RBA may delay taking the foot off the pedal just yet. The recent slide in the Australian dollar and worries over a turmoil in global financial markets may prompt the policymakers to front-load more of the rate hikes while the economy is still holding up. Retail sales data last week was upbeat while the first monthly inflation data reading at 6.8% is only slightly off the 7% levels seen in the preceding month. So, even as a monthly meeting can ensure a steady pace of rate hikes even with a smaller 25bps rate move, policymakers would possibly prefer to make a larger move this week to provide some support to the AUD. Likewise, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to hike rates by another 50bps at their October 6 meeting. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Japan’s Tokyo CPI to see impact of reopening</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Japan’s inflationary pressures are likely to continue to reign amid higher global prices of food, electricity as well as a weak yen propping up import prices. Bloomberg consensus estimates point to a slightly softer headline print of 2.7% YoY from 2.9% YoY previously, but the core is pinned higher at 2.8% YoY from 2.6% YoY previously. Further, the reopening of the economic from the pandemic curbs likely means demand side pressures are also broadening, and services inflation will potentially pick up as well. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Slow earnings week but watch for further profit warnings ahead of the Q3 reporting season</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Last week, Biogen and its Japanese partner Eisai announced positive results in a phase-3 study on a treatment that slows Alzheimer’s disease. Analysts are eager to learn more about the treatment from the company’s presentation of more data at the Clinical Trails on Alzheimer’s Disease conference on Nov 29. For Q3 results, analysts expect Biogen’s revenue and adj. EPS to fall by around 11% to 12% Y/Y. </span></p> <p><span>Analysts are expecting beverage company, Constellation Brands’ (STZ:xnys) revenues to grow at 5.6% Y/Y in the quarter ending Aug 31, led by its core bear portfolio of Modelo Especial and Corona Extra which recent channel surveys from Beverage Bytes and Nielsen suggested outperformance. The consensus estimate is optimistic and anticipates over 18% Y/Y growth on Adj. EPS with margin expansion. </span></p> <p><span>Tesco’s (TSCO:xlon) FY23 1H results (ending Aug 31), scheduled to release this week, are worth watching it can let us have a glimpse of the state of U.K. consumers and some insights into the latest development in the inflation in the U.K. Analysts are expecting the U.K. grocer to report margin compression as a result of high energy costs and wage increases. </span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Monday, Oct 3</span></h3> <p><span>Japan Tankan survey (Q3)<br /> </span><span >ISM US manufacturing survey (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Indonesia inflation (Sep)</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Tuesday, Oct 4</span></h3> <p><span>Australia home loans, building permits (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Australia RBA policy decision<br /> </span><span >Eurozone PPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >US factory orders, JOLTS (Aug)</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Wednesday, Oct 5</span></h3> <p><span>ISM US non-manufacturing survey (Sep)<br /> </span><span >S Korea inflation (Sep)<br /> </span><span >New Zealand RBNZ policy decision<br /> P</span><span >hilippines inflation (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Thailand inflation (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Australia retail sales (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Germany trade balance (Aug)<br /> </span><span >ECB non-monetary policy meeting<br /> </span><span >US MBA mortgage applications/30-year mortgage rate<br /> </span><span >US trade balance (Aug), ADP employment (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Canada trade balance, building permits (Aug)</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Thursday, Oct 6</span></h3> <p><span>Australia trade balance (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Taiwan inflation (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Germany factory orders (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK & eurozone construction PMIs (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone retail sales (Aug)<br /> </span><span >US jobless claims</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span class="underline; ">Friday, Oct 7</span></h3> <p><span>Japan household spending (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Germany industrial production (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK Halifax house prices (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Canada labour market statistics (Sep)<br /> </span><span >US employment report (Sep)<br /> </span><span >US consumer credit, wholesale inventories (Aug)</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key earnings releases this week</span></strong></h2> <p><span> </span></p> <ul> <li><span>Tuesday: Biogen</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: Keurig Dr Pepper, Aeon, Lamb Weston, Tesco, RPM International</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Seven & I, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, McCormick & Co </span></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Balance of Trade</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Commodity</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>China</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Australia</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 12 Sep 2022 01:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Fed officials gathered around Chair Powell to sing a consistently hawkish chorus and prepared the market for a 75bp rate hike on September 21. This week’s CPI report will be the last key data point before the Fed meets and the bar for convincing the policymakers to deliver a smaller than 75bp hike is high. The U.S. dollar’s uptrend will probably remain intact. Across the pond in the U.K., there is a host of data scheduled to release ahead of the Bank of England making its rate decision. China’s August industrial production and retail sales, and year-to-date fixed asset investment would potentially surprise the downside and point to the continued weakness of the economy.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>US CPI print will point to higher and stickier price pressures</span></strong></h3> <p><span>With the labor market remaining strong in the U.S. over the last few months, the focus has remained on the inflation data to predict the path of the Fed’s rate hikes. Clearly, all of the Fed’s members have had a unified hawkish stance since the Jackson Hole conference, and many have clearly hinted at a 75bps rate hike for September. Tuesday’s US CPI report is the one to watch, as it can move the market pricing of the Fed’s rate path and is the last key data point scheduled to release ahead of the September 21 Fed meeting. After some softening in July, it can be expected that the headline print may ease further in August as well given the decline in gasoline prices. Still, the inflation print is likely to stay elevated due to the stickier shelter and services costs, as well as still-high energy and food prices. Consensus estimates point to a mild decline of 0.1% MoM while the core remains strong at 0.3% MoM. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>A host of UK economic data is due, but the central bank decision shifted to September 22</span></strong></h3> <p><span>We get a snapshot of the state of the UK economy this week. UK inflation has already touched double digits last month with a 10.1% YoY print. Price pressures are likely to remain elevated this month as well, despite some softening in fuel prices, as food and services costs continue to rise. Further gains in inflation can be expected in October, but the capping of household energy bills may help to soothe inflationary pressures thereafter. Labor market data for three months to July is also due, and unemployment rate and wage data will be on the watch. Retail sales for August, due on Friday, will continue to show the impact of the cost-of-living crisis that has been seen in the UK due to the rising energy bills. UK consumer confidence is at record lows, and this will likely show up in the retail sales print this week. Bloomberg consensus estimates point to a 0.5% MoM deceleration in retail sales (including auto fuel). However, the pain on the economy from energy costs will likely ease towards the end of the year due to the government support, but that suggests further tightening in monetary policy may be on the cards. The Bank of England decision is now due on September 22, which would give the central bank time to assess the fiscal measures as well as the Fed’s rate hike path. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Slower export growth, power shortage, and pandemic controls would probably have taken their toll on China’s August activity data</span></strong></h3> <p><span>China’s activity data for August, scheduled to release on Friday, would probably be at risk of missing the median forecasts in the Bloomberg survey, which has industrial production at 3.8% YoY in August (vs 3.8% YoY in July), retail sales at 3.2% YoY in August (vs 2.7% YoY in July), and fixed asset investment year-to-date 5.5% YoY (vs 5.7% YoY). The heatwave-induced power shortage caused disruption to production in Sichuan and delays in infrastructure construction. The pandemic control measures affected the manufacturing and export hub of the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province in August. The much weaker than expected export growth data for August released last week and the continuously weak data in the property market also pointed to potentially downside surprises to these forecasts. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Japan producer prices to remain high</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Japan’s August producer prices for August are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, and gains are likely to extend further as oil and commodity prices remained elevated and the Japanese yen weakened further. Bloomberg consensus expectations are for producer prices to reach 8.9% YoY in August from 8.6% YoY previously. While a high base from last year may justify some cooling in input prices into the end of the year, demand pressures are picking up as well as the latest wave of Covid in Japan seems to get under control, and higher global prices and weaker currency continue to underpin further price pressures. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Can the USD momentum extend further?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>We saw the USD cool-off slightly last week following the uptick in the hawkish rhetoric from other global central banks. The European Central Bank went ahead with a 75bps rate hike, while also guiding for more jumbo rate hikes to come. The Japanese authorities also got more stern with their warnings against the fall of the yen, but there were no signs of the accommodative policy being tweaked. The recovery in the yen and the euro helped to cool off the recent gains in the greenback, as dis some positioning ahead of the US CPI release for this week. However, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe hinted that the pace of rate hikes may slow. The Fed will likely stay more aggressive than other global central banks, given the ammunition provided by the resilience of the US economy. Only a big miss in US CPI could move the needle on Fed rate hike expectations for now, and consequently on the US dollar. But for the most part, there are reasons to believe that the USD gains are likely to continue for now. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What</span></strong><strong><span> Australia’s central bank will be watching this week. And if the data is stronger than expected, you could see the AUDUSD extend its short term run up </span></strong></h3> <p><span>We’ve seen the RBA’s tone shift back to dovish of late, despite the RBA expecting inflation to peak later this year. And for the RBA to stay dovish, they’ll need to see falling inflation and falling employment. With that said, the next data set the RBA will be watching/assessing, ahead of their next interest rate decision (October 4), will be this unemployment data release for August on Thursday. Australia’s unemployment is at 50-year low, 3.4%. That’s where the rate is expected to remain for August. However, the other key data to watch is the employment change. This could give rise as to how much the RBA will be able to lift rates by, next month. In July data showed Australia’s employment fell from a record high, with 41,000 jobs being lost. While for August Bloomberg’s survey of economists suggests 35,000 jobs were added. Some forecasts are bleak though, estimating Australia lost 15,000 jobs. If the data is showing more jobs were lost, it will give the RBA less room to rise rates. Currently RBA interest rate futures expect the rates to peak at 3.6% next month. If more jobs were added than expected, we could see the AUDUSD extend its rally off its 2-year low.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Ethereum merge will draw attention</span></h3> <p><span >The Ethereum blockchain’s much-anticipated software upgrade, the so-called Merge, is expected to take place this week, according to its core developers. The new system, known as "proof-of-stake", will slash the Ethereum blockchain's energy consumption by 99.9%, developers say. Most blockchains, including bitcoin's, devour large amounts of energy, sparking criticism from some investors and environmentalists. We wrote about this </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/cryptocurrencies/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-ethereum-merge-07062022" >here</a><span >, and this is a key event to watch this week. The merge could make Ethereum more favourable to pension funds and other institutional investors that are under the scanner for environmental concerns, but there is also come scepticism an how scalable Ethereum could become and if it becomes more susceptible to attacks by hackers.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Oracle and Adobe are reporting results this week</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The earnings calendar is light as most U.S. companies have reported and Q3 earnings releases will roll in a month from now. Oracle (ORCL:xnys) and Adobe System (ADBE:xnas) are the two most notable releases this week. The Oracle results will include the contributions for the first time from Cerner, a medical information technology provider for which it paid USD28.3 billion. On Oracle’s core business, investors will focus on how the company’s enterprise software business fared in competition with increasingly popular cloud services by providers such as Amazon and Microsoft. </span></p> <p><span>Adobe System has surprised negatively in the past four earnings releases due to weaker than expected outlook and has seen its share price tumbling 45% since the beginning of the year. In the past couple of months, the share price has stabilised as expectations are no longer deteriorating. Analysts expect Adobe to report revenue growth of 12.6% y/y and expanding operating margin as a result of cost cutting. Adobe is part of the high quality pocket in the equity market with a high market share and double-digit organic growth rate expected over the coming years. Key risks to consider for Adobe are the strong USD, corporate spending slowdown on digitalization, and general weakness in the global advertising industry.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Monday, Sep 12</h3> <br /> <span >US</span><span >: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK: Monthly GDP (Jul)<br /> </span><span >Italy: Industrial Production (Jul)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: ECB’s de Guindos and Schnabel speak<br /> </span><span >India: CPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >India: Industrial production (Jul)<br /> <br /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Tuesday, Sep 13</h3> <br /> <span >US: CPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Japan: PPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Australia: Consumer confidence Index (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Australia: Business confidence Index (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Germany: ZEW survey (Sep)<br /> </span>UK: Labour market report (Aug)<br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"></h4> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Wednesday, Sep 14</h3> <br /> <span >US: PPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Japan: Core machine orders (Jul)<br /> </span><span >UK: CPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK: RPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK: PPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: Industrial production (Jul)<br /> </span><span >India: WPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >New Zealand: Current account balance (Q2)<br /> </span><span >Hong Kong: Industrial production (Q2)<br /> </span>Hong Kong: PPI (Q2)<br /> <br /> <span >Thursday, Sep 15</span><br /> <br /> <span >US: Jobless claims (weekly)<br /> </span><span >US: Retail sales (Aug)<br /> </span><span >US: Philly Fed manufacturing survey (Sep)<br /> </span><span >US: Empire State manufacturing survey (Sep)<br /> </span><span >US: Industrial production (Aug)<br /> </span><span >US: Business inventories (Jul)<br /> </span><span >Japan: Trade data (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Japan: Tertiary industry activity index (Jul)<br /> </span><span >Australia: Unemployment rate (Aug)<br /> </span><span >UK: Bank of England decision (Sep)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: ECB’s Centeno speaks<br /> </span><span >Indonesia: Trade data<br /> </span><span >New Zealand: Real GDP (Q2)<br /> <br /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Friday, Sep 16</h3> <br /> <span >US: University of Michigan consumer survey (Sep, preliminary)<br /> </span><span >UK: Retail sales<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: Harmonized CPI (Aug, final)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: ECB’s Rehn speaks<br /> </span><span >China: Industrial production (Aug)<br /> </span><span >China: Retail sales (Aug)<br /> </span><span >China: Urban fixed-asset investment year-to-date (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Singapore: Non-oil domestic exports (Aug)<br /> <br /> </span><span ></span> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key earnings releases this week</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><span class="underline; "><strong>Monday</strong>: </span><span>Oracle (ORCL:xnys),</span></li> <li><span class="underline; "><strong>Tuesday</strong></span><span>: DiDi Global (DIDIY:xnas)</span></li> <li><span class="underline; "><strong>Wednesday</strong></span><span>: Industria de Deseno Texgtil SA (ITX:xmce)</span></li> <li><span class="underline; "><strong>Thursday</strong></span><span>: Polestar Automotive (PSNY:xnas)</span></li> <li><span class="underline; "><strong>Friday</strong></span><span>:</span><span> Adobe (ADBE:xnas)</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-video-title">Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>APAC</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>China</span> <span>Singapore</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>Japan</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>DocuSign</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 22 Aug 2022 01:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>US dollar awaiting its next signals from the Jackson Hole </span></strong></h3> <p><span>There is a considerable tension between the market’s forecast for the economy and the resulting expected path of Fed policy for the rest of this year and particularly next year, as the market believes that a cooling economy and inflation will allow the Fed to reverse course and cut rates in a “soft landing” environment (the latter presumably because financial conditions have eased aggressively since June, suggesting that markets are not fearing a hard landing/recession). Some Fed members have tried to push back against the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts next year it was likely never the Fed’s intention to allow financial conditions to ease so swiftly and deeply as they have in recent weeks. The risks, therefore, point to a Fed that may mount a more determined pushback at the Jackson Hole forum, the Fed’s yearly gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that is often used to air longer term policy guidance. This will have further implications for the US dollar, which is threatening the cycle highs versus sterling, the euro and on the comeback trail against the Japanese yen as well. The US dollar is a barometer of global liquidity, and a continued rise would eventually snuff out the improvement in financial conditions we have seen since the June lows in equity markets, particularly if longer US treasury yields are also unmoored from their recent range and rise back to 3.00% or higher.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Europe and UK PMIs may spell further caution</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Euro-area flash composite PMI and the UK flash PMI for August are both due to be released on Tuesday. Following a slide in ZEW and Sentix indicators for July, the stage is set for a weaker outcome on the PMIs too. July composite PMI for the Euro-area dipped into contractionary territory at 49.9, while the UK measure held up at 52.1. The surge in gas and electricity prices continue to weigh on GDP growth outlook, with recession likely to hit by the end of the year.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>More price pressures to come to Asia</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Singapore's inflation</span></strong><span> likely nudged higher in July, coming in close proximity to 7% levels from 6.7% y/y in June. While both food and fuel costs continue to create upside pressures on inflation, demand-side pressures are also increasing as the region moves away from virus curbs. House rentals are also running high due to high demand and delayed construction limiting supplies. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened monetary policy but more tightening moves can be expected in H2 even as the growth outlook has been downwardly revised. We also get <strong>Japan's Tokyo </strong>CPI for August, which is likely to suggest further gains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Consensus expectations point toward another higher print of 2.7% y/y for the headline measure and 2.5% y/y on the core measure, signalling inflationary pressures will continue to question the Bank of Japan's resolve on the ultra-easy policy stance. Malaysia’s July inflation is also due at the end of the week, and likely to go above the 4%-mark from 3.4% previously. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Softer July US PCE print would not derail Fed’s tightening</span></strong></h3> <p><span>After a softer CPI report in July, focus will turn to the PCE measure – the version of the CPI that is tracked by the Fed to gauge price pressures. Lower gasoline prices mean that PCE prints could also see some relief, although we still upside pressures to inflation given that energy shortages will likely persist and easing financial conditions mean that inflation could return. We would suggest not to read too much into a softer PCE print this week, as the stickier shelter and services prices mean that the 2% inflation target of the Fed remains unachievable into then next year. This suggests that the aggressive tightening by the Fed will likely continue, despite any likely softness in the PCE this week. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Housing markets, Covid-19 cases, and power curbs are key things to watch in China this week</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The data calendar is light in China this week with only July industrial profits data scheduled to release on Saturday. This morning, China’s National Interbank Fund Center, based on quotes from banks and under the supervision of the PBoC, fixed the 1-year loan prime rate (“LPR”) 5 bps lower at 3.60% and the 5-year loan prime rates (“LPR”) 15 basis points lower at 4.30%. The larger reduction in the 5-year LPR, which is the benchmark against which mortgage loan rates in China are set, may signal stronger support from the PBoC to the housing market. </span></p> <p><span>Last Friday the Housing Ministry, the Ministry of Finance, and the PBoC, according to Xinhua News, jointly rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of presold residential housing projects which are facing difficulties in completion due to lack of funding. Investors will monitor closely this week to gauge if there is additional information about the size of the program and if the PBoC will print money to fund it. </span></p> <p><span>As daily locally transmitted new cases of Covid-19 in China persistently surged and stayed above 2,000 since August 12, 2022, the market will watch the development closely and how it will affect the economy. In addition to the pandemic, power shortage in the Sichuan province and some other areas in China due to unusually high temperature (higher power consumption for air-conditioning) and drought (which affects hydropower output), investors are assessing the impact of the government-imposed power rationing for industrial users on production, in particular the auto industry and consumer electronics industry in the affected areas. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key earnings this week</span></strong></h3> <p><span>On Monday, investors will scrutinize the results from Palo Alto Networks (PANW:xnas) in the U.S. to gauge the latest business development in the security software industry, which has drawn much attention this year as cybersecurity has become a focus. Intuit (INTU:xnas) is scheduled to report on Tuesday and its results may provide information about the small and medium-sized businesses that the company focuses in it business. After a disappointing preannouncement earlier in the month, the bar for Nvidia (NVDA:xnas)’s earnings release this Wednesday may be low. In HK/China, the results from the Postal Savings Bank of China may provide the market with some insights into the state of the Chinese banking system, especially situations outside the top-tier cities. JD.COM (09618:xhkg/JD:xnas) on Tuesday and Meituan (03690:xhkg) on Friday will be the focus of investors monitoring the business trend of eCommerce and delivery platforms in China. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong >Monday, Aug 22</strong></h3> <p class="text--body"><span >South Korea: Exports (Aug, first 20 days)<br /> </span><span >Hong Kong: CPI (Jul)</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Tuesday, Aug 23</span></strong></p> <p><span>United States: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug, preliminary)<br /> </span><span >United States: S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug, preliminary)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Aug)<br /> </span><span >United Kingdom: PMI Manufacturing (Aug), PMI Services (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Japan: PMI Manufacturing (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Singapore: CPI (Jul)</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Wednesday, Aug 24</span></strong></p> <p><span>United States: Durable Goods Orders (Jul, preliminary)<br /> </span><span >United States: Pending Home Sales (Jul)</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Thursday, Aug 25</span></strong></p> <p><span>United States: GDP (Q2, second)<br /> </span><span >United States: Initial Jobless Claims (Aug)<br /> </span><span >United States: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Aug)<br /> </span><span >United States: Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 25 to 27)<br /> </span><span >Germany: IFO Survey (Aug)<br /> </span><span >France: Business Confidence (Aug)<br /> </span><span >South Korea: Bank of Korea Policy Meeting</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Friday, Aug 26</span></strong></p> <p><span>United States: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator & PCE Core Deflator (Jul)<br /> </span><span >United States: U of Michigan Sentiment Survey (Aug, final)<br /> </span><span >United States: Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium<br /> </span><span >France: Consumer Confidence (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Eurozone: M3 (Jul)<br /> </span><span >Italy: Consumer Confidence (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Italy: Economic Sentiment (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Tokyo: Tokyo-area CPI (Aug)<br /> </span><span >Singapore: Industrial Production (Jul)</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Saturday, Aug 27</span></strong></p> <p><span>China: Industrial Profits (Jul)</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span class="underline; ">Key earnings releases this week</span></h2> <p><span class="underline; "><strong>Monday</strong>:</span><span> Postal Savings Bank of China (01658:xhkg), Palo Alto Networks (PANW:xnas)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; "><strong>Tuesday:</strong></span><span> Medtronic (MDT:xnys), Intuit (INTU:xnas), JD.COM </span><span>(09618:xhkg/JD:xnas), JD Logistics (02615:xhkg), Kingsoft (03888:xhkg), Kuaishou (01024:xhkg)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; "><strong>Wednesday:</strong></span><span><strong> </strong>PetroChina (00857:xhkg), Ping An Insurance (02318:xhkg), Nongfu Spring (09633:xhkg), LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012:xssc), Pinduooduo (PDD:xnas), Nvidia (NVDA:xnas), Salesforce (CRM:xnys), JD Health (06618:xhkg)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; "><strong>Thursday:</strong></span><span> AIA (01299:hkgs), Wulinagye Yibin (000858:xsec), China Life Insurance (02628:xhkg), CNOOC (00883:xhkg), Dollar General (DG:xnys), NIO (09866:xhkg/NIO:xnas)</span></p> <p><span class="underline; "><strong>Friday:</strong></span><span> Meituan (03690:xhkg), China Shenhua (01088:xhkg), Sinopec (00386:xhkg) </span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q3 2022 Outlook: The Runaway Train</h1> <p>Tue, 05 Jul 2022 00:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The market fails to understand that we have shifted into a new paradigm for the economy, inflation and the incoming policy response. Inflation will prove a runaway train that central banks can only chase from behind until the inflationary dynamics result in a crash into a hard recession. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">An executive summary </h4> <p>Our outlook for Q3 2022, and really for the balance of the year, argues that the market fails to understand that we have shifted into a new paradigm for the economy, inflation and the incoming policy response. Inflation will prove a runaway train that central banks can only chase from behind until the inflationary dynamics result in a crash into a hard recession. But that eventual recession won’t mean that we are set for mean reversion back to disinflation and calm conditions. That’s because inflation is here to stay, driven by deglobalisation and supply-side shortcomings from decades of underinvestment in the physical world, as policy was overgeared toward pumping up leverage and ever greater financialisation of the economy. Over 40 years of falling yields and ever greater policy stimulus after every recession since the early 1980s, the final period was characterised by zero- and negative-policy rates and, even more importantly, negative real rates that drove tremendous malinvestment. Now, we have entered a new super cycle of greater volatility and a higher background inflation level. With monetary policy sidelined, fiscal dominance will mean that inflation is as much a feature as a bug, because it is the only option policymakers can take for deleveraging our over-indebted economies. </p> <p>In equities, we argue that the market has undergone one of its largest sentiment shifts in the past 100 years in just six months. This was after it dawned on the market that the famed Fed put has been thrown out the window as the Fed finally realised it must focus single-mindedly on tightening conditions until inflation is reined in. Given our macro theme that the supply side of our economy has suffered underinvestment, the new landscape for equities should favour tangible assets such as logistics, commodities, renewable energy, infrastructure and defense. The energy sector is the only positive sector in US equities this year and, with its rising importance in equity indices, we foresee a potential crisis in environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds due to their significant underweight in oil and gas stocks. Elsewhere, we feature an equity focus piece on commodity-related stocks, naming names that offer exposure to a variety of commodities and noting the current risks to the green transformation theme. <br /> <br /> Given our focus on inflationary risks due to the physical world being unable to keep up, it is interesting that our commodities outlook notes that commodities are fretting risks to the downside in the short to medium term as the market predicts an incoming recession due to the policy tightening and a demand adjustment after severe price rises over the last year. But for the longer term, decades of underinvestment in capacity and the need for the metal-intensive push for a more carbon-neutral future leave us convinced that commodities remain in a rising super cycle. <br /> <br /> In currencies, we assess where we are in the strong USD cycle as the Fed is now forced into the position of continuing to tighten policy ‘until something breaks,’ with the USD possibly not peaking and turning over until we are clearly heading for a hard landing, even as other central banks are largely seen matching and even exceeding Fed policy tightening. The euro is in a tough spot as it tries to tighten while avoiding policy fragmentation due to the foundational challenges of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as we discuss in a focus piece on Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB). We also feature a separate focus piece in currencies on the Japanese yen—the Bank of Japan has doubled down on its yield curve control policy that is seeing it lose control of its balance sheet as it intervenes to defend yield caps on Japanese government bonds. This could potentially mean that we are set for an explosion in JPY volatility if market forces and realised inflation in Japan become unbearable later this year. <br /> <br /> Our European focus in this outlook is squarely on the ECB and the euro. The ECB is set to announce a new tool in Q3 to keep sovereign spreads under control. It may manage to do so, but what about the euro itself? Shortly put, the eurozone could well end up in crisis territory once again if the ECB lags too much behind its global peers in tightening policy. But that does not have to be entirely negative. From 2012 onwards, crisis has at every turn prompted new institutional reforms which have strengthened the eurozone framework. The second half of this year will prove critical for the eurozone. <br /> <br /> The weakness in the Chinese economy due to the country’s zero-Covid policy has been an outlier this year. Our outlook focus piece on China judges the road ahead for the country to be likely bumpy through this winter and into early next year, as it appears intent on stopping any uncontrolled spread of the virus, with only hesitant offsetting stimulus measures. Still, long-term perspectives for China are in order as we look at the country’s huge initiative in transforming its economy away from the factory-of-the-world era to a new ‘dual-circulation’ paradigm led by high-tech prowess and increased self-reliance. <br /> <br /> In our crypto coverage, we note that the crypto market has come under heavy pressure this year with the vicious tightening on global liquidity that has devastated risky assets of nearly every stripe. All parts of the crypto market are under pressure, from crypto traders to crypto service providers. Some claim this can serve as a healthy clean-up of the industry by removing overleveraged speculators and exposing unreliable and untenable crypto services. Going into Q3, cryptocurrencies are in limbo, awaiting changes in the general macroeconomic sentiment, regulation and breakthroughs in institutional adoption of crypto technologies. <br /> <br /> Finally, this outlook also features a rundown of the longer-term technical outlook for critical assets, particularly the longer US treasury yield and Nasdaq-100 Index after US equity markets entered a bear market in Q2, as well as the USD Index and Brent crude oil. </p> <a class="v2-btn v2-btn-primary" href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products">Explore products at Saxo</a></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 04 Jul 2022 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Investors and traders are earnestly assessing the tug of war between inflation and recession. The sharp fall in industrial metal prices, weak U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey and downward revision of Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for U.S. Q2 GDP to negative 2.1% have caused angst among investors and traders. This week, focus will be on the nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate from the U.S. In Asia, China’s Caixin Services PMI and aggregate financing data and policy rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank Negara Malaysia will capture more attention. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Quarterly outlook released</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Saxo’s Q3 quarterly outlook title “The Runaway Train” will be released this week which argues that the world is changing from high economic visibility and low inflation to one of high volatility and high inflation. Central banks are struggling to catch up and the only real way to kill the runaway train that is inflation could be forcing the world into recession. Due to global uncertainty, under-investing in energy infrastructure and supply chain challenges, there are only difficult solutions to this issue that each come with their own range of problems. To know more on our investment themes for Q3, join the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/events-and-webinars">webinar</a> by SaxoStrats on Thursday, July 7.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>FOMC minutes may be dated, ISM services and jobs report to be parsed for recession concerns</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The FOMC minutes from the June meeting are due Wednesday, and will likely continue to signal a hawkish Fed stance as inflation remains considerably above their target. The Fed is likely to signal a 50/75bps rate hike for July and a rapid move to neutral, after which it will likely slow down. With markets running ahead on pricing recession concerns, focus will be on ISM services print this week after the manufacturing survey last week indicated a broad-based weakness across new orders and employment. Still, the rhetoric on "robust labor market" will be the key test for the markets on Friday with Bloomberg survey expecting a slowdown to 273k jobs growth in June from 390k last month. Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6% while average hourly earnings will likely slow down to 5% y/y from 5.2% in May.</span><strong ></strong></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) set to raise rates this week</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Reserve Bank of Australia (<strong>RBA</strong>) is widely expected to rise interest rates by 0.5%, on Tuesday taking the cash rate to 1.35%. However at Saxo, we think the RBA will hike rates by 0.75% , taking the cash rate to 1.6% in an attempt to bring inflation pressures in check. If executed, it will be the biggest hike since 1994. So far we’ve observed the RBA getting inflation forecasts wrong. Australia’s Federal Treasurer has also conceded the RBA’s inflation forecast of 7% YOY inflation is ‘widely off the mark’. Higher food, fuel and utility prices are pushing up inflation and pressures on even higher rises in wages. The RBA’s guidance, comments on inflation outlook and the labour market will be closely watched. The AUD will likely be bid/ see rally if the RBA rises rates more than the 0.5% expected.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Japan’s wages and upper house elections</span></strong></h3> <p><span>With Japan’s inflation prints sustaining above the key 2% level, the key concern is now whether the economy begins to see any wage pressures. Japan's labor cash earnings and real earnings are due Tuesday, which remain volatile, will be key to watch. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation is also scheduled to release final data about the results of the 2022 spring wage negotiation (shunto) on Tuesday. Preliminary data as of May 31 shows a 2.09% increase in wage (versus +1.78% in 2021). The BoJ has been counting on benign wage increases to justify its extra-ordinary loose monetary policy. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling coalition is expected to keep its majority in a July 10 election for parliament's upper house that comes as his support has sagged among voters concerned about rising prices and a weak yen. But the LDP remains the party of choice for voters who have kept it in power almost continuously since its formation in 1955 and see it as offering a steady hand in guiding the world's third-largest economy. With the election in mind, Mr. Kishida has already unveiled a raft of inflation relief measures to keep a lid on price gains.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong >China’s Caixin Services PMI and Aggregate Financing Data</strong><span><br /> </span></h3> <p><span>The official NBS Non-manufacturing PMI came at 54.7 which was mainly due to a sharp improvement in the service sector sub-index, jumping to 54.3 in June from 47.1 in May. The stronger-than-expected performance of the service sector was mainly due to the reopening from lockdown in Shanghai and other cities and the release of pent-up demand for hospitality services. June Caixin Services PMI is scheduled to release on Tuesday. As the Caixin survey covers more on private enterprises and SMEs which were worst hit in this downturn, Bloomberg consensus is calling for a reading of 49.0 in June, which will be a notable improvement from May but still in contractionary territory. China is releasing aggregate financing data between July 9 and 15. Market economists are expecting a small pickup in the year-on-year growth of aggregate financing and loans. </span></p> <h3><strong >Clusters of Asian Inflation Data</strong></h3> <p><span>China is scheduled to release PPI and CPI on Friday. As per Bloomberg survey, market economists are expecting China PPI to moderate to +6.0% YoY in June (versus +6.4% in May) while CPI to climb to +2.5% in June (versus +2.1% in May). The rise in CPI attributes to a low base and sequential rise and a smaller year-on-year decline in pork price in June. CPI inflation in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines are all expected to climb, led by energy, food and import prices. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Bank Negara Malaysia may be set to go for a jumbo rate hike</h3> <p>After its first rate hike of the current cycle in May, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is possibly now fighting the same battle as many other central banks – whether to go for a 25bps or 50bps rate hike. Headline inflation rose to 2.8% y/y in May, up from 2.3% y/y previously, while core inflation reached its highest levels in almost five years at 2.4% y/y. Wage pressures have also been picking up, suggesting that the rising inflation may be sticky and become broad-based. While the central bank had guided for a gradual tightening pace at the last meeting, rising inflationary pressures, Fed’s 75bps move in June (and another similar hike expected in July) as well as the fact that BNM only meets once in two months means the central bank may be tempted to be more aggressive, and we will know that on July 6.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Indian equities on watch following windfall taxes on oil firms</span></strong></h3> <p><span>India slapped taxes on fuel exports and local crude oil production to tap windfall gains from surging global oil prices, targeting overseas sales of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. Meanwhile, import taxes on gold were also hiked. These measures are aimed at capping the ballooning fiscal and trade deficit which is weighing on the rupee. Reliance Industries (RIGD) plunged on the news on Friday, while Gold (XAUUSD) slid below the psychologically important $1,800/oz level for the first time since mid-May. Further pressure on Indian equities – especially oil and gas - and Gold can be expected be in the week ahead. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Equities kick off a half year; volatility tipped to rise as more layoffs are expected ahead of earnings season kick off </span></strong></h3> <p><span>With layoffs increasing across different industries from the EV market (Tesla and VW), to travel and tourism (Air France), to Pharma, to Cryptos (Coinbase), this week we will be watching for more potential layoffs, as some businesses brace for a possible recession. Facebook parent Meta (<strong>META</strong>) has warned employees, it needs to “execute flawlessly in an environment of slower growth” saying employees shouldn’t expect “influxes of new engineers and budgets”. Ahead of US reporting season kicking off July 11, you might expect more layoffs to be announced. This week Samsung Electronics (<strong>005930</strong>) quarterly earnings will be released and watched, along with its outlook which could give an indication for what we might expect from Apple (<strong>AAPL</strong>) when they report July 29. And you’d think the personal electronics giants will report that revenue and income will grind lower for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week</span></strong></h2> <p><strong><span>Monday July 4<br /> </span></strong><span >U.S. Markets Closed (Independence Day)<br /> </span><span ></span><span >Eurozone Sentix Survey (Jul)<br /> </span><span ></span><span >Eurozone PPI (May)<br /> </span><em ><br /> </em><em ></em><strong >Tuesday July 5<br /> </strong><span >U,K. BoE Financial Stability Report<br /> </span><span >France Industrial Production (May)<br /> </span><span >Spain PMI Comp (Jun), Italy PMI Composite (Jun), Eurozone PMI Services (Jun-fin), Eurozone PMI Composite (Jun-fin)<br /> </span><span >UK PMI Services (Jun-fin), UK PMI Composite (Jun-fin)<br /> </span><span >China Caixin PMI Services (Jun)<br /> </span><span >Japan Shunto Spring Wage Negotiation Final Data (2022)<br /> </span><span >Australia RBA Policy Meeting (Jul)<br /> </span><span >S. Korea CPI (Jun)<br /> </span><span >India Market Services PMI (Jun)<br /> </span><span >Singapore Retail Sales (May)<br /> </span><span >Thailand CPI (Jun)<br /> </span><span >Philippines CPI (Jun)<br /> <br /> </span><strong >Wednesday July 6<br /> </strong><span >U.S. ISM Services (Jun)<br /> U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (May)<br /> U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes<span > </span>(Jun)<br /> Germany Factory Orders (May)<br /> Spain Industrial Production (May)<br /> Eurozone Retail Sales (May)<br /> U.K. PMI Construction (Jun)<br /> </span><span ></span><span ></span><span ></span><span ></span><span ></span><span ></span><span ></span><span >Malaysia BNM Policy Rate (Jul)<br /> <br /> </span><strong >Thursday July 7<br /> </strong><span >U.S. Initial Jobless Claims<br /> </span><span >Germany Industrial Production (May)<br /> </span><span >Japan Economic Coincident Index (May)<br /> </span><span >China FX Reserves (Jun)<br /> </span><span >S. Korea Current Account Balance (May)<br /> </span><span >Australia Exports, Imports & Trade Balance (May)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Friday July 8<br /> </span></strong><span >U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings & </span><span >Unemployment Rate (Jun)<br /> </span><span >Italy Industrial Production (May)<br /> </span><span >Japan Current Economic Condition</span><span > </span><span >Index </span><span >(Jun)<br /> </span><span >Japan Consumer spending (May)<br /> </span><span >Japan Current account (May)<br /> </span><span >Malaysia Industrial production (May)</span><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Saturday July 9<br /> </span></strong><span >China PPI (Jun)<br /> </span><span >China CPI (Jun)<br /> <br /> </span><strong >July 9-15<br /> </strong><span >C</span><span >hina Aggregate Financing (Jun)</span><span ></span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key earning releases this week</span></strong></h2> <p><strong><span>Wednesday July 6: </span></strong><span>Aeon Co Ltd</span><strong><span> (8267.JP)</span></strong><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Thursday July 7: </span></strong><span>Seven & i Holdings</span><span> (</span><strong><span>3382.JP</span></strong><span>),</span><span> </span><span>Gushen Inc</span><span> (</span><strong><span>GSHN.US</span></strong><span>)</span><span>,</span><span> LG Electronics </span><span>(</span><strong><span>066570.KS</span></strong><span>), </span><span>Samsung Electronics (</span><strong><span>005930.KS</span></strong><span>)</span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>China</span> <span>Singapore</span> <span>Malaysia</span> <span>India</span> <span></span> <span>Europe</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>Japan</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?</h1> <p>Mon, 20 Jun 2022 01:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">With a tug of war between inflation and recession concerns ensuing, central bank speakers (such as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony) and economic data (such as flash PMIs) will continue to be parsed closely in the week ahead. Asia’s trade and inflation data also out this week will press further the need for further tightening in the region. Commodities start to be pressured as well - we have an energy crisis brewing in Australia and US gasoline developments will be key. Focus will shift further away from industrial metals as China lockdowns will likely linger, to safe havens like Gold.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Powell’s testimony to the government</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Fed Chair Powell delivers his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy before the US Senate Banking Committee in the week ahead. He will likely be grilled on what a more aggressive Fed could mean for jobs and the economy. This could be key as the debate around a 50 vs 75bps rate hike in July is still open. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>US recession fears continue to get tested</span></strong></h3> <p><span>A series of Fed surveys are due from the US this week, which will be scrutinized to signal if there are risks of a recession on the horizon. These include the Chicago Fed National Activity index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity index, as well as the final print of University of Michigan sentiment index. Also on the horizon is the preliminary print of the S&P Markit manufacturing PMI for June which is seen to be slowing down from May’s print of 57, but still remain strongly in expansion. Services PMI is however likely to gain some strength. Meanwhile, US home sales are tipped to show further strain on Wednesday with existing home sales data out for May. Gold (XAUUSD) is likely to see more strength if data disappoints, suggesting that stagflation fears are on the rise. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Dollar topping out</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The US dollar top looks to be in place as other major central banks follow the Fed with strong tightening signals. Swiss National Bank announced a surprise 50bps rate hike on Thursday, along with Bank of England’s hawkish 25bps rate hike which has opened the door for a 50bps rate hike in August. Adding to the dollar’s weakness were reports that ECB President Christine Lagarde told finance ministers that the Bank’s new anti-crisis tool will launch if borrowing costs for weaker nations climbs too fast. While it is still hard to imagine a sustained case for any central bank to out-hawk the Fed, there may be signals that the dollar rally is peaking if yields start to top out.</span></p> <strong></strong> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Pivot from industrial metals to gold to continue </h3> <span>With global growth already starting to fatigue and now China is not likely to come out of lockdown this year; the biggest risk is the world enters a recession, before inflation is brought under control, and thus stagflation occurs. So we expect gold to shine as it historically does in such events. We anticipate further interest in gold equites this week with recession calls getting louder. Across Saxo globally last week we observed an increasing number of clients buying Gold Futures contracts, compared to the average number of trades over the last three months. And across the market on the ASX last week; gold stocks were some of the best performers as investors rotated out of industrial mining stocks and into gold equities, for their safe haven qualities. Our long-term bullish view in gold and sliver has strengthened of late. And as our Head of Commodity Strategy says we see <strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-au/content/articles/commodities/wcu-commodities-drop-as-inflation-battle-heats-up-17062022">potential in gold hitting a fresh record in the second half</a></strong>.<br /> <br /> <br /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Flash PMIs and Eurozone economic bulletin from the ECB</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Flash PMIs for the Euro area will be on watch to signal the extent of slowdown in the economy as shortage of natural gas supplies continues to weigh on business sentiment especially after the latest disruptions to Gazprom’s supplies to Germany. UK’s inflation is also out on Wednesday, and expected to climb higher to 9.2% y/y from April’s 9.0% y/y amid rising food and fuel costs. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Asian inflation pressured higher</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Bank of Japan stuck to its easy monetary policy despite the pressures from global tightening and market participants challenging the Bank’s yield curve control over the last week as the Fed delivered a 75bps rate hike and other central banks jumped on the tightening bandwagon as well. Japan reports nationwide CPI in the week ahead, which is expected to stay above the central bank’s 2% target, but unlikely to threaten Kuroda to change his mind as wage growth pressures remain subdued. Singapore also reports May CPI which is expected to rise to 5.5% y/y from April’s 5.4%, likely led by food (with Malaysia’s chicken ban an added factor) and transport costs, but also due to the recovering demand as the economy reopens. Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to tighten policy further at its next meeting in October. Malaysia also reports May CPI this week which will also show upside pressures amid supply-driven factors but also showing a reviving consumer demand. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Korea export data for the first 20 days of June</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The data may offer investors a glimpse of the status of the industrial activities in the region given Korea being a key supplier of industrial intermediate goods. Fewer workdays (13 days) than the same period last year (15.5 days) will bias the data negatively and make the anticipated year-on-year decline difficult to interpret. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>China’s Standing Committee convenes </span></strong></h3> <p><span>The NPC Standing Committee is scheduled to convene from June 21 to 24. Agenda items include reviewing and ratifying the State Council’s financial report and audit report of fiscal income and outlays for 2021. Investors tend to focus on if the NPC Standing Committee will increase this year’s local government special bond (LGSB) quota, which was determined in March this year at the “Two Sessions”, to boost infrastructure spending in the second half of 2022. The NPC Standing Committee will also review the Anti-Monopoly Law amendment draft. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Gasoline on watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>With gas prices surging above US$5 per gallon, the Biden administration has ramped up calls to increase and lower costs at the pump especially in light of the mid-term elections in November. Discussions around capping gasoline and diesel exports have also picked up and may see further announcements over the coming week. Even if the government were to change its stance on energy, and provide some capital investment, that won’t have an impact on prices immediately. The oil market will remain very tight until crude demand destruction becomes more noticeable in the fall. The US releases its weekly crude oil inventory report on Thursday and this will be keenly watched.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Australia in energy crisis; blackouts to continue; coal, oil, gas companies’ profits in question </span></strong></h3> <span>Australia remains in an energy crisis, with no solution in sight. Parts of the East Coast of Australia suffering blackouts amid a lack of wholesale supply and rising demand due to an early onset of winter. Parts of QLD, NSW and the ACT are being asked to cut back energy use with Australia’s power operator, the Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) operating on reserves. Last week, the AEMO suspended spot electricity trading after power generators were selling power above the maximum price range (due to lack of power supply). Prior to that, the AEMO was calling for supply to fill the gaps, and introduced a cap price at $300 per megawatt hour. However, wholesale electricity prices surged above that, and then some fossil fuel generators withdrew capacity saying they could not operate ‘profitability’ under the cap. <strong>So households are left limiting power and coal and gas companies are left with profits being squeezed.</strong> AEMO says it’s far too early to resume normal operations; as energy availability remains limited, some power generators are offline for maintenance/faults, and sourcing issues and fuel costs issues continue.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> </span> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Key calendar events</h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Monday 20 Jun</span></h3> <p>United States Market Holiday<br /> Germany Producer Prices (May)<br /> Eurozone Construction Output (May)</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Tuesday 21 Jun</span></h3> <p>Hong Kong SAR CPI (May)<br /> United States National Activity Index (May), Existing Home Sales (May)</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Wednesday 22 Jun</span></h3> <p>Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes<br /> New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (May)<br /> United Kingdom CPI (May), PPI (May)<br /> United States Mortgage Market Index (Jun)<br /> Canada CPI (May)<br /> Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence (Jun)</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Thursday 23 Jun</span></h3> <p>South Korea PPI Growth (May)<br /> Australia S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> Japan au Jibun Bank Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> UK CIPS/S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> Germany S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> France S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> Eurozone S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services (Jun)<br /> Singapore CPI (May)<br /> United States Current Account (Q1)</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Friday 24 Jun</span></h3> <p>United Kingdom GFK Consumer Confidence (Jun), Retail Sales (May)<br /> Germany Ifo Business Climate New (Jun)<br /> Malaysia CPI (May)<br /> US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June, final)<br /> US new home sales (May)</p> <span><br /> <br /> </span></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex-options">Forex Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>InflationSG</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>Asia-Pacific Themes</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>China</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>How to become a 7-figure investor</h1> <p>Thu, 05 May 2022 13:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>For the launch of Saxo Markets Australia’s new education series, Australian Market Strategist Jessica Amir, chats to the CEO, Adam Smith on how to become a 7-figure investor.<br /> <br /> Adam is experienced in guiding people to invest, he's been the Director of Securities at Macquarie, the COO of OFX and worked with Deutsche Bank, and ANZ.<br /> <br /> Adam covers how to get started investing, to the most recent stocks he bought, to preserving capital and more.</p> Adam discusses<br /> <br /> <ol> <li>How to get started investing</li> <li>What are his favourite sectors</li> <li>What have been his recent trades or investment</li> <li>How does he preserve his capital when the market is down</li> <li>When to exit an investment</li> <li>Tips on developing a strategy to become a better investor</li> <li>Next steps on becoming a 7-figure investor</li> </ol> <p><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products">Access over 60,000 instruments across all asset classes</a> </p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Saxo Markets</div><div>Saxo Markets</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Education</span> <span>Become a better investor 1-3</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex-options">Forex Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q2 2022 outlook: The End Game has arrived</h1> <p>Tue, 05 Apr 2022 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our outlook for Q2 2022 argues that we are witnessing nothing less than the arrival of the end game for the paradigm that has shaped markets since the advent of the Greenspan put in the wake of the LTCM crisis of 1998.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body">Our outlook for Q2 2022 argues that we are witnessing nothing less than the arrival of the end game for the paradigm that has shaped markets since the advent of the Greenspan put in the wake of the LTCM crisis of 1998. The twin shocks of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shifted priorities on all policy fronts, including fiscal, monetary and geopolitical. In the US, the imperative for the Fed to grapple with spiralling inflation risks has disrupted the traditional rinse and repeat of bailing out financial markets and the economy at the first ripple of trouble. Shortly put, the strike price of the “Powell put” is far lower than it was a year ago—the Fed must get ahead of the curve. In Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen Germany tossing decades of fiscal and defence policy out the window, ushering in a new era of investment that should drive a strong rise in productivity. EU existential risks have disappeared as defence priorities soar above all other considerations. Helmets on, as 2022 will prove a wild ride for global markets. </p> <p class="text--body">Our macro outlook picks apart the argument that we are seeing a repeat of the 1970s as the world faces a supply shock unlike any it has previously seen. It’s one that risks a “great erosion” as negative real rates erode purchasing power on all levels and rising costs erode profit margins for corporations. Productivity must eventually improve to address this, but the prospects for productivity gains from the green transition are questionable. </p> <p><span >In fixed income, the outlook focus is on the rapid flattening of the US treasury yield curve as an inversion threatens and points to rising recession risks. We also look at rising yields across Europe on a less accommodative ECB and, given the new fiscal expansion, what this could mean for EU peripheral spreads. In the credit space, central bank tightening will continue to turn the screws on credit spreads, possibly risking a tantrum at some point. <br /> </span></p> <p><span ></span><span >In equities, our focus is on equity valuations under siege from supply-side constraints, rising input costs and the prospect of far higher interest rates. Winners from here will be companies that can boast strong innovation, pricing power and profitability. In Europe, companies that absorb the enormous new fiscal push in defence, energy and other industries will likely benefit. We also present a special feature piece on cybersecurity, an industry that was already booming before Russia’s invasion super-charged focus on cybersecurity vulnerabilities on all levels—government and corporate. <br /> </span></p> <p><span ></span><span >In commodities, the focus is on the continued upside risk for oil that was already in place before the Russian invasion of Ukraine badly aggravated forward supply uncertainty. We also look into a supportive backdrop for industrial metals on the priorities of new military spending, the metal-intensive green transition and—as Russian supplies are disrupted—on sanctions. Elsewhere, rising food prices remain a risk as a corollary of rising energy prices, but also if this year’s Ukrainian wheat crop can’t get to market, as it is a major exporter. The gold story remains bullish as an inflation hedge and as long as real rates remain negative. <br /> </span></p> <p><span ></span><span >In currencies, the focus is on the potential comeback for the euro on the massive shift in fiscal outlays that has been triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This will keep more of EU savings in the EU and deepen capital markets there. We also break down how spiralling inflation and the sanctions against Russia’s central bank have likely accelerated the move away from USD primacy as the global reserve asset of choice. <br /> </span></p> <p><span ></span><span >Finally, this outlook features a rundown of the technical outlook for important assets from gold and crude oil to US equities, and in particular the remarkable multi-decade perspective on the Dow Jones Industrials. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Q1 2022 outlook: Fuelling the energy crisis</h1> <p>Tue, 25 Jan 2022 07:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Q1 2022 outlook: Fuelling the energy crisis</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="heading--3">Executive summary</h3> <p class="text--body">Our outlook for early 2022 explores the overriding risk of an energy crisis developing this year due to years of underinvestment in mission-critical baseload energy—the fossil fuels and nuclear energy that are still the overwhelming energy inputs into our economy. The climate agenda and focus on reducing CO2 emissions is the right one for the long-term future, but 2022 will be the year in which policymakers discover that the current roadmap toward long-term climate targets is out of touch with reality. Focusing excessively on EVs and the current menu of alternative energy options while neglecting baseload fossil fuel and nuclear will only lead to an energy crisis ahead. Europe is already at the heart of the baseload crisis and will continue to be so in the coming year. The EU will be the first major economic bloc forced to revamp its energy infrastructure and allow natural gas and nuclear back in from the cold.</p> <p class="text--body">In equities, we look at the incredible current under-representation of the energy sector in equities, which makes up a meagre 2.7 percent of the S&P 500 market cap at the end of 2021 versus more than 16 percent at their major peak in 2008 and 10 percent in early 1995. We have also drawn up an inspirational list of some 40 companies across the global fossil fuel, nuclear and new energy landscape. We expect the sector to deliver strong returns in coming years, as market valuations are very stretched in most of the sectors that did well last year.</p> <p class="text--body">In commodities, a strong focus in 2022, we look not only at the upside potential for oil and gas, but also nearly every industrial metal due to the metal intensity of alternative energy sources, from wind turbines to EV batteries. The underinvestment that has brought us to the current state of weak supply will continue until ESG standards for lending into mining and upstream oil and gas production are softened. Greenflation will persist as a buzzword in 2022 with further uncomfortable inflation in commodities possibly spreading to the major agricultural products as fertiliser prices are set to spike in the next growing season after this winter’s natural gas crisis. Many don’t realise that much of the fertiliser used to increase the crop yields that are our “food baseload” are produced by stripping natural gas atoms of their hydrogen to produce ammonia compounds; so we even “eat” fossil fuels, in a way.</p> <p class="text--body">In the fixed-income markets, the focus this year will be on central banks’ increasingly aggressive stance as they lean against the powerful inflationary pressures that worked up a head of steam in the second half of 2021. Yield curves will likely bear flatten, with policy rate hikes raising yields at the front end of the curve while longer yields struggle to keep pace. The latter will be held down by weak long-term real growth prospects. Long-duration bonds and assets will likely struggle in the year ahead. Investor interest in higher-yielding debt will persist. However, as central banks begin catching up with inflation in their policy moves, higher real rates could spark an eventual widening in credit spreads that dent returns for riskier debt.</p> <p class="text--body">In currencies, we look at the likelihood that the Fed will be more or less be forced down a path of hiking rates until something breaks down the road. The USD is likely to remain weak as long as the Fed’s perceived “terminal rate” remains anchored around 2 percent, and as long as the pace of the Fed’s rate increases is sufficiently sedate to avoid a liquidity panic. Elsewhere, we note that 2022 kicked off with extreme divergences in JPY weakness and CNY strength that haven’t been seen since China modified its exchange rate regime back in 2015, severely weakening the renminbi. With much of the world tightening while China seeks some form of domestic easing after crackdowns on the tech and property sectors, the divergence points to a softer renminbi.</p> <a class="v2-btn v2-btn-primary" href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products">Explore Saxo’s products</a></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Steen Jakobsen</div><div>Chief Investment Officer</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Quarterly Outlook</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>We need water. We need oxygen. We need win-win markets.</h1> <p>Thu, 20 Jan 2022 03:34:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Not a day has gone by in the history of humanity where we did not need each other. Capitalism is not an ideology – it is a system. And while it possesses the potential for humans creating win-win transactions among each other, then systems can be flawed. We need to mend and transform the system, but we cannot do it alone. Whether we call it humanistic capitalism or win-win markets, what matters is that we start to use the strength of the system to make the best possible impact on the most important thing we have: each other.</span></p> <span><strong>Sources referenced in the video:</strong></span> <div> <ul> <li><span>“Capitalism and Its Impact on Global Living Standards”, Josh Swan, University of Birmingham</span></li> <li><span>“The Cambridge History of Capitalism”, Cambridge University</span></li> <li><span>“Exxon loses board seats to activist hedge fund in landmark climate vote”, Reuters</span></li> </ul> <span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/documents/campaigns/money-matters/sg/saxobank-sg-project-sources-mov4.pdf?revision={FDE0EC45-982F-469A-8AFC-8F44E2E2BD5B}" target="_blank" id="link_1637311929801">See all sources</a></span></div></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div><div>Saxo Group</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <span>Money-matters</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>