Energy scarcity powers commodities index towards a record high</h1> <article> <h1>Energy scarcity powers commodities index towards a record high</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Energy drives the commodity rally: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">Crude and refined products lead weekly gains as the US-Iran conflict and tight physical supply keep risk premiums elevated. </span></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Refined fuels highlight the severity of the squeeze</strong>: European gasoil has surged 123% this year, with the total return reaching 185% as tight supply adds a substantial positive roll contribution. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Precious metals rebound as rate fears ease</strong>: Waller's comments triggered lower yields and a weaker dollar, while strong gold ETF and central-bank demand continue to provide underlying support. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Agriculture cools after a powerful rally</strong>: Crowded positioning magnified profit-taking, although Black Sea disruption and weather risks remain unresolved.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p>The commodity sector is heading towards another record weekly closing high, supported by continued strength across energy markets as geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and tight physical markets continue to outweigh concerns about higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. In addition, recent rate-hike worries have faded, while the dollar has turned lower, primarily driven by renewed Japanese yen strength.</p> <p>The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance above 34%. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, gaining around 6%, while industrial metals have recorded a modest advance. Precious metals are close to unchanged following a late-week rebound, while agriculture has retreated following four consecutive weeks of gains that last month saw the sector deliver the strongest monthly return in 12 years.</p> <p>The contrasting performances underline a key theme across commodities this year: markets facing the greatest physical supply constraints continue to attract the strongest support, while sectors where speculative positioning has become stretched remain vulnerable to sharp corrections when the news flow changes.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">One week total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p> <h3 data-section-id="dkom3p" data-start="1913" data-end="1970">Energy tightness keeps crude and products in the lead</h3> <p data-start="1972" data-end="2252">Crude oil trades steady following a three-session rally that has propelled energy to the top of this week's performance table. Brent is up around 8%, followed by WTI and diesel at around 7%, as renewed fighting between the US and Iran keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.</p> <p data-start="2254" data-end="2685">Brent reached a six-week high above USD 95 per barrel after renewed US strikes on Iran increased concerns about further disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. While oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, volumes remain constrained and the threat of renewed disruption continues to hang over a waterway that normally handles around one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. </p> <p data-start="2687" data-end="2944">The scale of this year's energy rally becomes even more striking when looking beyond outright prices. Brent has risen almost 56% this year, but tight supply and the resulting positive roll yield have lifted the return for a long-only investor to around 93%.</p> <p data-start="2946" data-end="3374">Refined products have delivered even more spectacular returns. European gasoil futures, the main European benchmark for diesel and other middle distillates, have risen 123% in price terms and around 185% on a total-return basis. The combination of Middle Eastern disruption, the Russia-Ukraine war and limited refining flexibility has created an acute shortage of products at a time when crude supply itself remains constrained.</p> <p data-start="3376" data-end="3698">The strength of refined products also highlights an increasingly important distinction: having sufficient crude oil globally does not necessarily mean having the right fuels available in the right locations. Refinery capacity, product inventories and trade flows have therefore become increasingly important price drivers.</p> <p data-start="3700" data-end="4136">OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday, with Reuters reporting that the group is expected to leave its October production policy unchanged after completing the unwinding of one layer of earlier production cuts. With geopolitical disruptions preventing several producers from fully translating higher quotas into additional exports, the group's ability to influence near-term prices has arguably diminished.</p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent crude's roller coaster ride continues - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-section-id="8mxf83" data-start="4138" data-end="4179">Gold rebounds as rate-hike fears ease</h3> <p data-start="4181" data-end="4399">Precious metals endured another volatile week, with gold staging a rebound after an earlier correction driven primarily by long liquidation, rising bond yields and renewed expectations of another US rate hike.</p> <p data-start="4401" data-end="4891">Gold jumped as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce, its biggest intraday gain since 19 August, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favour leaving rates unchanged this month if incoming data confirms that inflation pressures are cooling. His comments reduced the probability of a September hike from around 65% to roughly 50%, triggering lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and renewed demand for bullion. </p> <p data-start="4893" data-end="5182">The speed of the recovery supports the view that the recent correction was primarily about reducing stretched positioning rather than investors fundamentally abandoning gold. Open interest in COMEX futures declined during the sell-off, while investment demand outside futures remains firm.</p> <p data-start="5184" data-end="5498">Notably, the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund attracted USD 1.41 billion in a single session, its biggest inflow since January, helping lift total global ETF holdings to around 3,095 tonnes, a six-month high. Central-bank purchases meanwhile continue to provide an important structural source of demand.</p> <p data-start="5500" data-end="5829">Attention now turns to next week's US August CPI report, which could have an outsized impact on both rate expectations and gold. Waller explicitly linked his September view to the incoming inflation data, making the release an important test for markets after several weeks of rising yields. </p> <p data-start="5831" data-end="6081">From a technical perspective, gold's rebound has brought the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,534, back into focus. A sustained break above this level would strengthen the recovery signal and potentially encourage fresh momentum buying.</p> <h3 data-section-id="6dm5ag" data-start="6083" data-end="6121">Industrial metals remain resilient</h3> <p data-start="6123" data-end="6273">Industrial metals have meanwhile continued to show surprising resilience despite higher global borrowing costs and periods of renewed dollar strength.</p> <p data-start="6275" data-end="6580">Supply constraints remain the dominant supportive force, particularly across copper and zinc, where tight availability and disruptions have offset concerns about demand and higher funding costs. Zinc recently reached a four-year high, while copper continues to trade close to historically elevated levels.</p> <p data-start="6582" data-end="6949">The broader message is that industrial metals are increasingly behaving as supply-constrained physical commodities rather than simply proxies for Chinese economic growth. Electrification, grid investment and the rapid expansion of power-intensive infrastructure continue to support the longer-term demand outlook, while supply has struggled to respond quickly enough.<br /> <br /> <h3 data-section-id="jotnr5" data-start="6951" data-end="6983">Agriculture takes a breather</h3> <p data-start="6985" data-end="7253">Agriculture has moved in the opposite direction this week following four consecutive weeks of strong gains. The recent rally had driven speculative positioning sharply higher, leaving several markets vulnerable to profit-taking when supportive headlines began to fade.<br /> <br /> <p><span>Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in our weekly “<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">Commitment of Traders</a>” report, the combined managed-money net long jumped 546k contracts in a two-week period to 25 August, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years, and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, with the combined position having been close to neutral only a few months ago.</span></p> </p> <p data-start="7255" data-end="7555">Wheat provides the clearest example. Prices retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, prompting traders to remove some of the geopolitical premium built up during the recent surge. <span >Yet the physical disruption has not disappeared. Asian importers have recently purchased at least 500,000 tonnes of Australian and Argentine wheat to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes, reportedly paying sizeable premiums to secure alternative supply.</span></p> <p data-start="8010" data-end="8316">Elsewhere, cocoa and coffee have also come under pressure as improving near-term supply expectations encouraged profit-taking, while cotton has weakened amid subdued demand. Sugar has been relatively resilient, supported by expectations that the global balance could tighten again during the coming season.</p> <p data-start="8318" data-end="8644">After the scale of the recent agriculture rally, some consolidation was probably inevitable. The underlying risks from Black Sea disruption, extreme weather and El Niño have not disappeared, but the rapid build-up of speculative longs means markets have become more sensitive to even modest changes in the fundamental outlook.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Chicago wheat futures correct lower after meeting resistance near USD 8 per bushel - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-section-id="93pn3r" data-start="8646" data-end="8684">Scarcity remains the common thread</h3> <p data-start="8686" data-end="9020">Overall, commodities remain supported by supply constraints that are particularly visible across energy and parts of the industrial metals sector. The BCOM Total Return Index heading towards a record weekly closing high despite corrections across agriculture and precious metals illustrates just how strong these forces have become.</p> <p data-start="9022" data-end="9264">At the same time, this week's sharp reversals in gold and agriculture provide a reminder that positioning matters. Markets can remain fundamentally tight while still experiencing sizeable corrections when speculative exposure becomes crowded.</p> <p data-start="9266" data-end="9512">For now, energy remains firmly in the driving seat, with the combination of geopolitical risk, constrained supply and exceptionally strong refined-product markets providing the main engine behind the commodity sector's push into record territory.<br /> <br /> <p data-start="0" data-end="200">The chart below shows the performance of the BCOM Total Return Index, in this case tracked by the <span data-start="95" data-end="152">USD 4.6 billion Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF</span>, one of several ETFs tracking the BCOMTR Index.</p> <p data-start="202" data-end="370"><em data-start="202" data-end="370"><strong>For information purposes only and not intended as a specific investment recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future returns.</strong></em></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">The BCOM Index heading for a record weekly closing high - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>3 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/why-tight-commodity-markets-are-boosting-investor-returns-03092026" data-id="85F7ACFAB9DD41FBB567ED3E827F551E" data-type="Article">Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns</a><br /> 2 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/the-companies-powering-ai-are-outperforming-those-building-it-02092026" data-id="BA867EDA92B94584B41AC7C60773C7C4" data-type="Article">The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it</a><br /> 1 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-strength-collides-with-higher-interest-rates-01092026" data-id="C39FB3CF093A4FF88850A98DE64ABB3C" data-type="Article">Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</a><br /> 29 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026</a><br /> 28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Zinc</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Wheat</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Big stakes for USDJPY over US jobs report.</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:48:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Also, Waller dovishness confuses after hawkish Warsh.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/usdjpy-a-huge-focus-over-us-jobs-report/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Bloomberg discusses <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/gpif-s-unusual-meeting-fuels-speculation-over-allocation-change" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>the odd meeting of Japan's largest (and word's largest) pension fund and whether this means a raise of allocation to Japanese government bonds</span></a>, with this story likely an important contributor to the recent JPY rally.</li> <li>A <span><a href="https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/03/tesla-is-asking-people-if-they-want-to-buy-and-run-cybercab-fleets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tech Crunch article discusses Tesla's polling the market for anyone interested in operating Cybercab fleets</a></span>. I didn't cover on today's pod that apparently, the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tsla-stock-slips-overnight-safety-015813567.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">post-Cybercab event coverage late yesterday was somewhat negative</a>. </li> </ul> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Europe built the car industry. Can it survive the next version?</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>European car stocks look cheap</strong> because investors are questioning future margins, not simply today’s sales.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>China’s slowdown is pushing its carmakers overseas, increasing pressure</strong> on European prices, costs and product cycles.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>The emerging auto moat combines brand with low costs</strong>, software, batteries, speed and scale.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>European car stocks look cheap. Unfortunately, their competitors are getting cheaper cars onto the road too.</span></p> <p><span>That is the backdrop to Volkswagen’s Future Plan 2030, approved on 3 September 2026. Europe’s largest carmaker plans another 50,000 job cuts, a smaller model range and major capacity reductions, while still investing EUR 135 billion between 2027 and 2031.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, Volkswagen is not the whole story. It is the clearest symptom of an industry discovering that yesterday’s advantages may not be enough tomorrow.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Shrinking yesterday while funding tomorrow</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Volkswagen built its scale for a larger market. Its European factories have more than 500,000 vehicles of excess annual capacity, while four German plants face uncertain production beyond the early 2030s. The group wants to halve its model range, target nine million annual sales and lift its operating margin to 9% by 2030, from 3.8% in the first half of 2026.</span></p> <p><span>In other words, Volkswagen is shrinking yesterday’s company while funding tomorrow’s. Neither is cheap.</span></p> <p><span>Cost cutting alone will not win the race. Volkswagen still needs competitive batteries, software, electronics and cars suited to different regional tastes. Closing factories can improve utilisation. It cannot make an unwanted car desirable.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>China is exporting its problem</span></strong></h3> <p><span>China’s domestic car sales fell 20% in the first half of 2026, while exports rose 71%. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinese-car-sales-are-booming-almost-everywhere-just-not-home-2026-08-14/" target="_blank">Chinese brands have gone from roughly 3% of Europe’s passenger-car market four years ago to about 16% in early 2026.</a></span></p> <p><span>BYD shows the mechanism. Strong overseas shipments have helped offset weaker conditions at home. When domestic demand slows but factories keep producing, foreign markets become more important.</span></p> <p><span>Chinese brands do not need to dominate Europe to change its economics. They only need enough scale and attractive products to force rivals to cut prices, add features or spend more on development.</span></p> <p><span>Tariffs can slow the process, but local European production and hybrid models offer ways around some barriers.</span></p> <p><span>The old European moat was brand, factories and dealer networks. The emerging moat is broader: brand, low production costs, batteries, software, development speed and scale.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Cheap can mean two different things</span></strong></h3> <p><span>European autos trade at roughly 10 times projected earnings, versus around 15 times for the STOXX Europe 600. The discount is tempting, but it does not answer the important question.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: underlying estimates are aggregated from sell-side consensus compiled by Bloomberg. The chart was generated using ASKB by Bloomberg AI. </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Maybe investors are too pessimistic about global brands with huge scale and decades of engineering expertise. Or maybe historical profits are a poor guide to future profits in a more competitive industry.</p> <p>The differences matter. BMW and Mercedes-Benz have premium brands that provide some protection from price competition, but both remain heavily exposed to China. Stellantis has historically relied on cost discipline but faces product and regional challenges. Toyota offers hybrid strength and manufacturing efficiency. BYD brings scale, vertical integration and speed, but also operates inside a brutal home-market price war.</p> <p>The key question is not who sells the most electric cars. It is who can protect returns while changing the machine underneath the badge.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Risks to watch</strong></span></h3> <p>The first risk is that restructuring savings arrive more slowly than price pressure. Watch factory utilisation, incentives and margins.</p> <p>The second is that Chinese exporters gain share faster than European groups can refresh their products.</p> <p>The third is capital allocation. Heavy spending only creates value if new technology and factories eventually earn acceptable returns.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Investor playbook</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><span><strong>Compare margins with market share.</strong> </span>Sales growth bought through discounts can hide weakening economics.</li> <li><span><strong>Watch product-development speed and factory utilisation</strong>, </span>not just EV volumes.</li> <li><span><strong>Separate premium brands from mass-market manufacturers.</strong></span> Pricing pressure will not hit every segment equally.</li> <li><span><strong>Treat low valuations as a question to investigate</strong></span>, not an answer.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The badge still matters, but the factory behind it matters more</strong></span></h3> <p>Europe built the modern car industry around brands, engineering and industrial scale. Those strengths remain valuable, but China is forcing investors to ask what they are worth in a faster, cheaper competitive system.</p> <p>Volkswagen’s EUR 135 billion reset captures the challenge: remove excess capacity while spending heavily enough to stay relevant. BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis face different versions of the same test, while Toyota and BYD show there is more than one route through the transition.</p> <p>European car stocks may be cheap. The opportunity will not come from the low multiple itself. It will come from companies proving that their moat can change as quickly as the car does.</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Electric vehicles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Europe heads into winter with a thinner energy buffer</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Gas buffers are thin: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">EU storage is at a 15-year seasonal low, while Qatari LNG disruption has tightened global supply. </span></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Risks could compound</strong>: Low storage, cold weather, weak wind/hydro and constrained LNG supply are the key winter threat. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Power volatility is rising</strong>: Growing renewable reliance increases exposure to Dunkelflaute, hydro weakness and nuclear outages. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" > <strong>Important buffers remain</strong>: US LNG, lower gas demand and strong nuclear availability could help, while El Niño may deliver a milder winter.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <br /> <p>Europe is approaching the coming winter with a considerably thinner energy cushion than in recent years. EU storage is currently around <strong>66% full</strong>, the lowest level for this point in the year in roughly 15 years. Germany is particularly exposed: storage is only a little above 50%, compared with the government’s objective of 70% by early November. </p> <p>Meanwhile, the prolonged disruption to Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply, tightening the global market while increasing competition for alternative cargoes. The scale of the disruption is extraordinary: Reuters reported recently that Qatar had exported only <strong>18 LNG cargoes since the war began, compared with 509 during the same period last year</strong>.</p> <p>The main risk is therefore not necessarily an outright shortage, but a combination of <strong>low inventories, a cold winter and periods of weak wind and hydro generation</strong>, which could sharply increase demand for gas-fired power at the same time as heating demand peaks. Continued disruption to Qatari LNG would amplify that risk by forcing Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia for flexible supply. <strong>The uncomfortable scenario is not any single one of these factors, but their combination: low storage + cold weather + weak wind/hydro + continued Qatari disruption.</strong></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">EU gas market situation - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p>Power markets add another layer of risk as electricity demand rises through electrification while Europe becomes increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation. The resulting volatility was evident during May and June, when average EU electricity prices before 09:00 and after 18:00 reached <strong>EUR 122/MWh versus EUR 90/MWh a year earlier</strong>, while daytime prices averaged just EUR 56/MWh as abundant solar generation depressed prices (Source: <a href="https://www.eurelectric.org/news/2026-electricity-data/">Euroelectric</a>). Gas-fired generation rose 15% outside solar hours, highlighting the growing importance of flexible backup generation.</p> <p>This challenge could become more pronounced during winter. Extended <strong>Dunkelflaute</strong> periods - cold, cloudy and low-wind conditions - can simultaneously lift electricity demand and sharply reduce renewable output, increasing reliance on gas-fired generation. Other risks include low hydro levels, nuclear outages and insufficient grid, battery and interconnector capacity. Conversely, strong French nuclear availability, improved hydro conditions, additional storage and better cross-border transmission would reduce the call on gas.</p> <p>Several factors could also mitigate the broader energy challenge. European gas demand remains structurally below pre-energy-crisis levels, while rising US LNG export capacity provides an increasingly important alternative source of supply. That is important because storage isn't merely an inventory number. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies estimates that storage withdrawals typically provide <strong>20–33% of EU net winter gas supply, highlighting the importance of continued imports.</strong></p> <p>Weather, however, may ultimately prove decisive. The developing <strong>El Niño could become the strongest on record and is expected to persist into early 2027</strong>. While potentially supportive for European energy balances if it contributes to a mild winter, the same phenomenon is increasing the risk of extreme weather elsewhere, potentially disrupting agricultural production and adding another layer of volatility across commodity markets.</p> <p>Overall, Europe looks capable of managing the winter, but with less room for error. <strong>The growing interaction between gas and an increasingly weather-dependent power system means adverse conditions could quickly translate into higher and more volatile prices across both markets.</strong></p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">European energy market risk overview - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>3 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/why-tight-commodity-markets-are-boosting-investor-returns-03092026" data-id="85F7ACFAB9DD41FBB567ED3E827F551E" data-type="Article">Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns</a><br /> 2 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/the-companies-powering-ai-are-outperforming-those-building-it-02092026" data-id="BA867EDA92B94584B41AC7C60773C7C4" data-type="Article">The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it</a><br /> 1 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-strength-collides-with-higher-interest-rates-01092026" data-id="C39FB3CF093A4FF88850A98DE64ABB3C" data-type="Article">Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</a><br /> 29 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026</a><br /> 28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Markets rally as Waller turns dovish, jobs report takes centre stage - 04 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A senior Fed voice softened on September as the jobs report comes into view</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European stocks rallied as rate fears eased, while Asian markets extended gains with technology leading.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities surged as bitcoin reclaimed a key level on easing rate fears</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: BCOM heads for record weekly close as energy surges; Waller and softer dollar revive gold momentum</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global bonds rally, led by Japan’s government bonds</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Recent JPY surge partially fades, USD weaker.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US Fed's Waller pivots dovish:</strong> Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be “heavily influenced” by August CPI data due 11 September. He signalled willingness to hold rates steady if disinflation continues, prompting markets to price roughly even odds of a hike at the September meeting, down from near-certainty earlier in the week.</li> <li><strong>US trade deficit widens sharply:</strong> The July goods and services trade gap expanded 24.4% month-on-month to $88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% surge in capital goods imports, primarily computers and semiconductors, reflecting the AI investment race.</li> <li><strong>The ISM Services PMI showed strong momentum in August</strong>, with activity and demand both picking up. Solid growth alongside limited hiring supports the broader AI-productivity story. For the Fed, however, rising cost pressures were the main concern, putting even more focus on the August CPI ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting. The ISM Services PMI rose 1.3 points to 55.4, above the 54.1 consensus. Business activity and new orders strengthened, while backlogs also increased. Meanwhile, prices paid rose to 72.6, above the 70 consensus.</li> <li><strong>US-Iran conflict ongoing:</strong> The US carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking inflation concerns. President Trump said renewed attacks would be “short-lived,” offering some relief to markets mid-week.</li> <li><strong>The BOE's Pill flags prompt hike:</strong> Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said a “prompt” rate increase would be appropriate to prevent the Iran energy shock from embedding inflation, though he stressed it need not be the start of a prolonged hiking cycle.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – Germany Jul. Factory Orders</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls Change</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. Unemployment Rate</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. Average Hourly Earnings</li> <li>1230 – Canada Aug. Employment Data</li> <li>1400 – Canada Aug. Ivey PMI</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Next week</strong></li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Inditex</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Oracle, Adobe</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow added 1.2% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s softer comments reduced expectations for a September rate hike. Microsoft gained 2.7%, while Nvidia rose 1.8% after agreeing to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Snowflake surged 16.6% on a stronger revenue outlook, while Broadcom fell 2.7% after its quarterly revenue forecast disappointed. After hours, Lululemon dropped around 18% after cutting its full-year revenue and profit outlook again. Markets now turn to today’s US jobs report.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 649.1, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% as lower global bond yields eased recent pressure on valuations. Soitec jumped 10.3% after raising its second-quarter revenue growth outlook, while WPP gained 5.6% and Publicis rose 4.4% following reports that Publicis had won PepsiCo’s media account. Commerzbank added 2.3% after announcing a share buyback of up to €1.2 billion, while LVMH fell 1.8% as investors remained cautious on the luxury recovery.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities advanced in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, South Korea’s Kospi around 2% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 2% as Waller’s comments supported risk appetite ahead of US jobs data. SoftBank surged around 10%, providing much of the Nikkei’s lift, while Kioxia gained 6.3% as AI-linked stocks rebounded. Samsung Electronics rose 3% and SK Hynix gained 5%, helped by renewed semiconductor demand optimism. A stronger yen and rising Bank of Japan rate expectations remained the main counterweight for Japanese exporters.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Crypto equities had their strongest day in weeks as bitcoin reclaimed USD 80,000 on Thursday and rate-hike odds fell. <strong>Strategy rose 17.56%, Circle 16.46% and Coinbase 10.14%</strong>, with the miners up 10% to 14%; spot has since flattened overnight.</li> <li><strong>Strategy resumed buying after a ten-week pause</strong>, adding 4,603 bitcoin for USD 369.7 million in its 31 August filing, lifting holdings to 845,050. US spot bitcoin funds took in USD 101 million on Wednesday while ether funds saw USD 48 million leave.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude trades steady after a three-session rally of around 9%, with <strong>WTI at USD 91.50 and Brent at USD 95.50</strong>. The US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep supply risks and the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Brent has risen almost 60% this year, while refined products such as diesel have seen even steeper gains amid the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war. <strong>OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday</strong> to set production targets.</li> <li><strong>Metals:</strong> Gold extended its rebound, <strong>rising as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce</strong>, its biggest intraday jump since 19 August, supported by a weaker dollar and Waller’s remarks. Spot trades around USD 4,470 this morning. The largest bullion-backed <strong>gold fund recorded a USD 1.41 billion inflow, its largest since 16 January</strong>, while the senior gold miner fund rose 3.95% and silver 2.51%. In addition, central bank demand remains an important structural support. Following Waller’s comments, there is little doubt that next week’s August CPI print could have an outsized impact on market risk sentiment and where gold goes next. Key resistance is the 200-day moving average at USD 4,534.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance to 33.6% and putting it on course for a record weekly closing high. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, surging 6.3%, while agriculture trades softer following four weeks of strong gains that lifted the BCOM Agriculture Index by 12.6%. An end-of-week rebound across precious metals has left the sector near unchanged on the week, while industrial metals have recorded a small gain.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global bonds rallied Thursday and early Friday.</strong> On Thursday, the US Fed’s Waller, an FOMC meeting voter, sounded far more dovish than Chair Warsh, confusing the market and sending short-date US yields sharply lower by some seven basis points, though much of that move was erased. Today’s key test for global bond markets is the US August jobs report.</li> <li><strong>In Japan on Friday, the government bond yield curve bull flattened again</strong>, with short-dated yields modestly lower while the longest-dated government bonds were snapped up for a second session, sending the benchmark 30-year JGB yield another seven basis points lower and testing the symbolic 4.00% yield level.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The rally in the Japanese yen extended close to the key 155.00 level in USDJPY, an area where the prior two rounds of intervention failed to see the JPY punching through to sustain a rally.</strong> Bloomberg reported that JP Morgan estimates that perhaps some 16–17 trillion JPY in JPY carry trades, more than USD 100 billion in long USDJPY trades, remain outstanding and that a self-reinforcing liquidation of positions could be triggered by a move below 155.00 that could send USDJPY to the 142–146 range.</li> <li><strong>The US dollar was broadly weaker after Fed voter Christopher Waller’s dovish comments.</strong> <strong>EURUSD</strong> rose back solidly above 1.1625 and AUDUSD rose above 0.7210, its highest level since May.</li> <li><strong>EURSEK fell sharply after testing as high as 11.18+ earlier this week</strong>, falling as low as 11.08 early Friday and therefore back into the range below 11.11 that had capped the exchange rate from June through August. Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Thedeen spoke positively on the status of the economic recovery and the market has pulled forward expectations of the bank’s first policy hike to as soon as the November meeting.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 04 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 01:32:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Waller pivots dovish ahead of NFP tonight and Aug CPI on 11 Sept</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Stock bounced on dovish Waller; Lululemon falls 18% after slashing forecast</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Yen jumped 2% to 155.30 per dollar, its biggest daily gain in over a month</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Spot gold jumped as much as 2.9%, topping $4,500</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Yields fell across the curve, with a bull-steepening bias</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Fed's Waller pivots dovish:</strong> Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be "heavily influenced" by August CPI data due 11 September. He signalled willingness to hold rates steady if disinflation continues, prompting markets to price roughly even odds of a hike at the September meeting, down from near-certainty earlier in the week.</li> <li><strong>US trade deficit widens sharply:</strong> The July goods and services trade gap expanded 24.4% month-on-month to $88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% surge in capital goods imports — primarily computers and semiconductors — reflecting the AI investment race.</li> <li><strong>US labour market softening:</strong> ADP private payrolls rose just 38,000 in August, below the 47,000 consensus estimate and the smallest gain since early 2026, underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring. The August non-farm payrolls report is due today and is being closely watched ahead of the Fed's September meeting.</li> <li><strong>US-Iran conflict ongoing:</strong> The US carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking inflation concerns. President Trump said renewed attacks would be "short-lived," offering some relief to markets mid-week.</li> <li><strong>BOE's Pill flags prompt hike:</strong> Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said a "prompt" rate increase would be appropriate to prevent the Iran energy shock from embedding inflation, though he stressed it need not be the start of a prolonged hiking cycle.</li> <li><strong>Japan intervention risk elevated:</strong> Japan's top currency official Atsushi Mimura said he is "ready to continue the currency battle" following the yen's sharp rally. BOJ rate hike bets also rose, adding to yen strength.</li> <li><strong>India rupee boosted by record diaspora inflows:</strong> India drew a record $127–136 billion through special central bank capital-raising programmes, far exceeding expectations and providing a significant buffer to defend the rupee.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71 on Thursday, its best session in a month, as F<strong>ed Governor Waller's dovish-leaning remarks drove a broad rally.</strong> Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% to 26,584.06 and the Dow added 1.2% to 53,686.11. All Magnificent Seven names closed higher; Microsoft led the S&P 500 with a 2.7% gain,<strong> while Nvidia rose 1.8% after announcing the acquisition of AI platform Hugging Face</strong>. <strong>Robinhood surged 16.6%, the index's largest single-stock move.</strong> <strong>In after-hours trading, Adobe slipped 1.4% after naming a new CEO;</strong> Oxford Industries tumbled 16% on a guidance cut; and <strong>Lululemon fell 18% after slashing full year forecast again, expecting it to decline 5-7%.</strong></li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> European equities tracked the global risk-on tone, supported by falling bond yields after Waller's remarks. Gilts and European bonds extended gains, with the German 10-year yield falling 3bps to 3.35% and the UK 10-year dropping 7bps to 5.16%. Ned Davis Research downgraded US stocks to underweight and upgraded Europe ex-UK to overweight, increasing its allocation to 15% from 12%, citing relative valuation and earnings optimism. Germany's ruling SPD backed EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, adding a trade policy overhang for the auto sector.</li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian equity futures pointed higher heading into Friday's open, tracking Wall Street's gains as September Fed hike bets eased. Japan's Topix rose 3.8% in August as the market broadened beyond AI trades into fundamentals-driven sectors, though Kioxia has lost more than half its value from its late-June peak. Futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia all pointed higher overnight. However, caution is warranted: a sharp yen appreciation and more hawkish BOJ rate expectations may cap gains among Japan's export-oriented stocks. Morgan Stanley cut its targets for China and Hong Kong stocks, citing worsening macro data, tighter liquidity and regulatory concerns — lowering its CSI 300 target to 4,880 and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index target to 8,900. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.8% on Thursday. Chipmaker Longsys reportedly priced its Hong Kong listing at HK$236. ByteDance secured a $30 billion loan, Asia's second-largest this year. The STI and Kospi were also set to open higher, with MSCI ASEAN gaining 0.7% on Thursday.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The <strong>yen </strong>surged ~2% against the dollar on Thursday to 155.81, its best single-day performance in over a month, as traders lifted BOJ rate hike bets and remained on alert for intervention. Japan's top currency official Atsushi Mimura said he is ready to "continue the battle" on FX. JPMorgan estimates a break below 155 could accelerate yen short covering, with a full unwind potentially pushing USDJPY to the 142–146 range.</li> <li>Global pension funds and insurers are reportedly hedging only 41% of their foreign-currency exposure — the lowest since at least 2015 — raising the risk of a sharper dollar selloff if sentiment turns.</li> <li>The onshore <strong>yuan </strong>edged to its strongest level since February 2023, with USDCNY touching 6.7179 after the PBOC set a stronger-than-expected daily fixing. The yuan's appeal as an alternative carry trade currency to the yen is growing, according to market commentary.</li> <li>The <strong>Singapore dollar's</strong> 120-day correlation with the US dollar has dropped to -0.94, the most inverse in Asia and the most negative since May 2024, positioning it as a key beneficiary of the dollar debasement trade, according to analysts.</li> <li><strong>AUD </strong>steadies near a one-week high at 0.7202 as traders await the US nonfarm payrolls report, after touching 0.7208 overnight. <strong>NZD </strong>holds at 0.5882 following a 0.5% gain in the previous session. <p> </p> </li> </ul> <p> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Spot gold</strong> surged as much as 2.9% on Thursday to top $4,500 per ounce, its biggest intraday jump since 19 August, driven by the dollar's decline and Waller's dovish remarks. The GLD ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow since 16 January at $1.41 billion. Central bank demand remains a structural tailwind, with the Dutch central bank having moved ~86 metric tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London, citing "increasing geopolitical unrest."</li> <li><strong>Crude </strong>fluctuated as Iran-related geopolitical tensions kept markets on edge, with the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz continuing to drive supply risk. WTI had briefly surged above $90 earlier in the week before pulling back. Asian refiners have been buying more US crude as a rally in Abu Dhabi's Murban oil opened the arbitrage window. OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to set production targets, a key near-term catalyst.</li> <li>Base metals broadly advanced alongside gold on Thursday as the dollar weakened.</li> </ul> <p> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Yields </strong>fell across the curve on Thursday following Waller's remarks, with the curve bull-steepening. The 2-year yield, which had topped 4.40% earlier this week for the first time since January 2025, fell ~5bps to 4.33%. The 10-year dipped to 4.768% and the 30-year to 5.248%. Treasury options saw an influx of weekly structures hedging event risk around Friday's August payrolls print.</li> <li>The <strong>US 30-year bond</strong> entered September having settled above 5% for 55 consecutive sessions, a stretch not seen since 2006, driven by a gaping fiscal deficit, heavy corporate issuance and Fed rate hike uncertainty. Schroders has been adding 10-year duration, calling yields "more attractive" after the recent selloff.</li> <li><strong>UK gilts and European government bonds</strong> extended gains alongside Treasuries. The UK 10-year yield fell 7bps to 5.16% and the German 10-year fell 3bps to 3.35%. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged fiscal stability amid soaring gilt yields but declined to rule out further borrowing or tax rises. The China-US 10-year yield spread remains near record wides at ~312bps (US 4.77% vs China 1.69%), raising capital outflow risks for China.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Big JPY rally – finally more than just intervention?</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:01:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">This JPY rally might actually stick.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>The latest </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>The Japanese yen is rallying sharply and it may not be just intervention</span></strong><strong><span>. </span></strong><span>A confluence of recent developments this week helped to first weaken the Japanese yen and then strengthen it sharply. Earlier this week, USDJPY challenged above 160.00 for the first time since the late July-early August intervention move to strengthen the yen. The chief driver going into this episode was the usual suspects of spiking oil prices and global bond yields moving sharply higher, driving fears of a Japanese bond market meltdown. But since the beginning of the week we’ve had a very sharp move higher in Japanese short rates to price a more aggressive BoJ rate hike trajectory. The 2-year JGB yield ramped nearly 15 basis points – most of it Tuesday and Wednesday – to above 1.85% at its highest Wednesday and we now have a 25-bp hike fully priced for the September 18 BoJ meeting. This came in part on the optics of US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s arm twisting of the BoJ on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of finance chiefs and central bank heads. And indeed, BoJ Governor Ueda delivered rhetoric supporting a more hawkish outlook. Perhaps more importantly for the ability of the JPY rally to stick, Japan’s largest pension fund, <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/gpif-s-unusual-meeting-fuels-speculation-over-allocation-change" target="_blank">the GPIF, is attracting attention today for having held a meeting</a> on August 21, with an August 31 report suggesting that asset allocation was on the agenda, fueling speculation that the USD 2 trillion fund, the world’s largest, is considering changing its allocation to Japanese bonds after rejecting any changes to its allocation principles as recently as March. Could this story be what also drove an exceptionally strong 30-year JGB auction early today, one that drove the benchmark 30-year yield nearly ten basis points lower just a day after it nearly touched the all-time high?</span></p> <p><strong><em><span>Bottom line</span></em></strong><em><span>: It’s too early to tell, but the confluence of seeming BoJ determination to deliver rate hikes and the GPIF story and strong demand for the longest dated JGBs suggest there is better support for the yen than around previous rounds of intervention. On the other hand, if we go back to yields continuing to spike everywhere, the JPY strengthening move would face an up-hill struggle again.</span></em></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: USDJPY (1-week Ichimoku)<br /> </strong>With this latest move lower in USDJPY, we are already running into interesting technical levels for USDJPY as we have cut through all of the local retracement levels (not shown) and we are nearly at the key 155.00 area that held up the price action intraday on the prior two sell-off rounds. It is worth noting that only one sharp sell-off since well back into 2025 has held for more than three trading days and that one (in February) only lasted another day before all of the backfilling started. So the first test for the pair is one of time – lasting into mid-next week, for example. In terms of levels and technical developments according to Ichimoku analysis principles, we are <span></span>watching two things here. The last time the key cloud level was broken (the first red circle on the left), there was no “confirmation” from the lagging span level (green line) at the time, as it was above the prior price bars. This time, we are still some distance from the cloud level, but are at the new trend tipping point as the lagging span will cross below the price bars in the days ahead even if we just stay at current levels and will of course break lower if the price action heads lower still. First order of business for bears would be a hold below 155.00 and then an eventual break of the bottom of the cloud, which begins to rise above 150.00 in the weeks ahead.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>The RBNZ meeting early Wednesday was</strong> read as a dovish hike as the central bank’s commitment to further tightening looked less firm than at prior meetings, sending the next anticipated rate hike further over the horizon. Governor Breman said the timing of a future hike is uncertain – some believe due to November elections and perhaps a RBNZ desire to avoid appearing as any factor in the election outcome. The opposition Labour Party wants to give the RBNZ a dual mandate (maximum employment level as well as inflation stability). The polls suggest a close outcome, with a new third party complicating the picture. AUDNZD has eyed the 13-year highs just below 1.2300 in the wake of the meeting.</p> <p><strong>The Bank of Canada</strong> looked like a hawkish hold as the Governor Macklem seemed more concerned with inflation than the recent sharp drops in the official core measures would seem to warrant, and he was also dismissive of the impact of US tariffs, provided they only continue to be assessed on the “narrow base” of Canadian goods. Canadian short rates jumped some eight basis points after the BoC meeting as the pricing for a hike at the December BoC meeting firmed to around 90%. USDCAD turned tail from 1.3940 Wednesday, in part as the USD was weighed down by likely USDJPY intervention, but most of the subsequent move was on the BoC effect as the pair dropped nearly all the way to 1.3800 today, looking very capped.</p> <p><strong>Sterling only rates a brief mention</strong>, but important to note that <strong>EURGBP</strong> broke above the clear 0.8580 line in the sand of the last couple of months.</p> <p><strong>Looking ahead<br /> </strong><span >We’ve got the last bits of key US data to consider this week, including today’s ISM Services for August, but more importantly the US August jobs report. For the latter, the unemployment rate deserves as much attention as the (always heavily revised) non-farm payrolls change data. There has been a misleading drop in the unemployment rate in recent months to 4.1% from a peak of 4.5% in late 2025 that has coincided with a drop in the participation rate by a full percentage point since December. This is likely more of a sign of older workers leaving the workforce and the labor force size therefore shrinking slightly than any sign of jobs growth. And already, in the sluggish payrolls number, we have seen the “low hire, low fire” phrase thrown about for quite a while now. Another 4.1% reading and whatever the print is tomorrow, we need to pair it with the participation rate change (same or lower unemployment rate with a lower participation rate is not positive. On the other hand, a small rise to 4.2% while the Participation Rate increases perhaps 0.2% is not negative.) Negative is a rise in both and positive is a fall in the rate with no fall or better in the participation rate.</span></p> <p>Besides the jobs report tomorrow, given Warsh’s strange but on the balance hawkish rhetoric at the Jackson Hole speech and focus on inflation as the primary concern, next Friday’s US August CPI print is the really critical final data point into the September 16 FOMC meeting.</p> <p><strong>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.</strong><br /> <span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p>Things are a bit dynamic with the scale and speed of this JPY move, but note the white hot momentum readings for the 2-day change in the broader JPY picture. As well, note that there is no “contagion” into CHF as the Swiss National Bank is in no hurry to push back against CHF weakness and has been happy to signal a continuation of its zero-interest rate policy for now. Elsewhere, the NZD was marked sharply lower post-RBNZ and CAD somewhat less sharply marked higher after the BoC meeting.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The JPY crosses are all flipping into negative trending mode if this move lower holds – with EURJPY and GBPJPY set to flip negative today assuming the price action doesn’t back up too steeply. Difficult to rate the USDCHF attempt to post a new positive trending signal when both USD and CHF are weak here.</span></p> <p> </p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Commodities are benefiting from two sources of return: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has gained 43.3% over the past year, compared with 35% for the Spot Index, highlighting the additional contribution from positive roll returns. </span></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Energy is providing the strongest carry</strong>: Tight physical markets have driven Brent, WTI and refined products into steep backwardation, with one-year implied roll yields above 20% across several fuel contracts. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Backwardation can reinforce bullish market conditions</strong>: When supply is tight, investors can benefit from both higher spot prices and positive carry, helping explain why commodity markets in backwardation often attract buying on price corrections. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Curve structure matters as much as direction</strong>: Contango creates the opposite dynamic, with negative carry eroding returns over time and raising the hurdle for investors even when the underlying commodity price outlook is constructive.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2">The hidden tailwind behind the commodity rally</h2> <p>The strong performance of commodities this year has been driven by more than rising spot prices. Tight physical markets, particularly across energy, have pushed futures curves deeper into backwardation, providing investors with an additional source of return through positive carry. <span >Over the past year, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has risen 43.3%, compared with a 35% gain in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. Year to date, the indexes are up 33.4% and 26.5%, respectively.</span></p> <p>Over the past five years, the Spot Index has gained 25.5%, while the <strong>Total Return Index has risen 71.6%</strong>. By contrast, during the previous five-year period, from 2016 to 2021, the Spot Index returned 65.2%, while the <strong>Total Return Index fell 3.5%</strong>. This period was characterized by ample supply, further reinforced by the sharp, short-term drop in demand during the Covid pandemic.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">From ample to tightening supply and its impact on total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p>These figures highlight how market conditions - particularly whether supply is tight or abundant - can significantly affect investor returns. <strong>Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.</strong></p> <p>The gap reflects futures-curve structure. Commodity indices such as BCOM gain exposure through futures contracts that are periodically rolled into later maturities. When nearby contracts trade above deferred contracts, the roll can generate a positive return by selling an expiring contract at a higher price than the next contract being bought. In contango, the opposite applies.</p> <h3>Energy delivers the strongest tailwind</h3> <p>The effect is most pronounced across energy, where the one-year implied roll yield has risen sharply during the past six months, with Brent and WTI currently offering positive carry of around 19% and 21%, respectively. Refined products are even stronger, with gasoil, ULSD (diesel) and RBOB gasoline showing implied roll yields above 20% and, in some cases, close to 30%.</p> <p>So far this year, these conditions have helped the BCOM Energy Index - which includes natural gas, down 20% year to date - deliver a total realised return of 75.8%, while the underlying spot index has gained “only” 51.3%.</p> <p>The steep backwardation reflects tight physical energy markets. Disruption to Middle East and Russian supply and shipping, low product inventories and exceptionally strong refinery margins have increased the premium for prompt supply relative to barrels available further into the future.</p> <p>This creates a powerful combination for investors: a long position can benefit from both rising spot prices and positive carry as exposure is rolled along the curve.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">The one-year futures spread across key commodities - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <h3>Why backwardation can encourage buying on weakness</h3> <p>A steeply backwardated curve generally signals that consumers are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery, reflecting low inventories, supply uncertainty or strong near-term demand.</p> <p>Provided that tightness persists, time works in favour of long positions through positive carry. A correction caused by macroeconomic factors, profit-taking or improved risk sentiment may therefore be viewed as a buying opportunity if the physical market remains tight and the curve stays backwardated.</p> <p>Contango creates the opposite dynamic. Investors rolling long positions must repeatedly move into more expensive contracts, allowing negative carry to erode returns unless spot prices rise enough to compensate.</p> <p><strong>Curve structure can therefore provide important confirmation - or a warning - alongside the fundamental and technical outlook.</strong></p> <h3>Metals remain structurally different</h3> <p>Not all commodity sectors currently offer positive carry, with precious and industrial metals mostly remain in contango, although zinc is a notable exception. This does not automatically signal weak fundamentals. Metals typically trade in contango because forward prices incorporate financing, storage and other carrying costs. With USD funding costs still elevated, with the 12-month rate around 4.2%, gold, silver and several industrial metals face a higher hurdle before moving into backwardation.</p> <p>Zinc’s positive roll yield is therefore particularly noteworthy, reflecting the supply-side tightness supporting the metal. Copper, by contrast, remains in modest contango despite prices near record levels, illustrating why curve structure must be interpreted differently across sectors.</p> <p>Agriculture presents a mixed picture, with some markets moving towards stronger backwardation while others remain in contango depending on inventories, harvest and weather expectations and immediate supply availability.<br /> <br /> <h3>Carry has become an important part of the commodity story</h3> <p>Investors focusing exclusively on spot-price performance risk overlooking an increasingly important component of commodity returns.</p> <p>The trailing difference between BCOM Total Return and Spot performance points to a substantial contribution from rolling futures exposure. The BCOM gross roll yield - measured as the 12-month return difference between the Total Return and Spot indices - has risen to around 8.8 percentage points, close to its strongest level in five years. However, as the chart shows, this return has been driven exclusively by strength in energy, raising the possibility of lower carry once the energy supply situation normalises. At the same time, emerging signs of tightness across key agricultural commodities, driven by war and weather, have not yet translated into meaningful backwardation, as seen during the 2022–2024 period following the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine.</p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">One year realised roll yields across the major commodity sectors - Source: Bloomberg and Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <p>Current futures curves still indicate positive aggregate carry, although at a more moderate pace than the exceptional contribution realised over the past year. Based on current BCOM target weights and one-year implied roll yields across its 25 constituent commodities, the weighted implied roll yield is around <strong>3.3%</strong>.</p> <p>The distinction matters: 8.8 percentage points describes the favourable curve conditions experienced over the past year, while 3.3% is a snapshot of currently implied carry, not a forecast of future realised returns.</p> <p>Overall, commodity markets are being supported by supply constraints, rising spot prices and a futures-curve structure that continues to reward long exposure. As long as physical tightness persists - particularly across energy - backwardation provides an additional tailwind supporting the case for buying corrections rather than automatically treating them as the start of a broader reversal.</p> <p>A meaningful flattening of these curves, or a shift back towards contango, would instead warn that physical tightness is easing. <strong>Watching the shape of the curve may therefore be almost as important as watching the price itself.</strong></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>2 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/the-companies-powering-ai-are-outperforming-those-building-it-02092026" data-id="BA867EDA92B94584B41AC7C60773C7C4" data-type="Article">The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it</a><br /> 1 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-strength-collides-with-higher-interest-rates-01092026" data-id="C39FB3CF093A4FF88850A98DE64ABB3C" data-type="Article">Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</a><br /> 29 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026</a><br /> 28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Markets pause for breath after yield run-up.</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:48:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The yen is on a tear higher.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/markets-pause-for-breath-after-yield-run-up/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGC4ofTcg2k" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere</span></a>. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there.</li> <li>Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel, etc. A <span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-bockMdk-c" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">long form youtube video of the author himself talking about the book</a></span>.</li> <li>An exchange on X about <span><a href="https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2095314553672528267" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China's huge debt load and its implications depending on how it is unwound</a></span> - Japanese-style or otherwise.</li> <li>The deepest of dives on "<span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2__JFNOAlzU" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">what really happened at Jackson Hole</a></span>" - not the ramblings of Fed Chair Warsh, but rather on the actual theme of Jackson Hole this year, which was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.</li> </ul> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Four earnings, one AI message: follow the money</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Broadcom’s custom chips and networking show AI spending is broadening</strong> beyond general-purpose graphics processing units.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span><strong >Dell, Snowflake and Palo Alto reveal the next bottlenecks: </strong><span >systems, usable data and security.</span></p> </span></li> <li> <p><strong >Strong results can still disappoint when expectations are extreme,</strong><span > making cash generation and execution more important.</span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>The artificial intelligence boom is starting to look less like one trade and more like a supply chain.</span></p> <p><span>Between 1 and 2 September 2026, Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake and Broadcom all reported strong AI-linked demand. Yet investors reacted differently. Dell rallied, Snowflake jumped after hours, while Palo Alto fell and Broadcom slipped.</span></p> <p><span>AI spending still looks strong. The harder question is where the best economics sit, and how much investors have already paid for them.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Broadcom moves to the centre</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Broadcom designs custom AI processors and the networking technology connecting thousands of chips inside data centres. AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled year on year, while management now expects about 115 billion USD of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027.</span></p> <p><span>Large AI developers increasingly want chips designed around their own workloads. Custom chips can offer better cost or power efficiency than general-purpose graphics processing units for specific tasks. Broadcom also sells the networking equipment connecting them, giving it exposure to two bottlenecks at once.</span></p> <p><span>Yet the shares slipped after results. Near-term guidance landed around market expectations, which were already enormous. Strong demand can be real and still not be strong enough for the share price. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The rest of the AI factory is filling up</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Dell assembles servers and storage systems that turn chips into working infrastructure. AI server orders hit record levels and the company raised its outlook again, confirming that customers are moving from plans to deployments. </span></p> <p><span>Cash flow deserves attention. Dell generated about 1 billion USD of standard free cash flow on 47 billion USD of quarterly revenue. Its adjusted figure is higher because it adds back cash tied up in customer financing and leased equipment. </span>Hardware growth can still require plenty of cash. </p> <p><span>Snowflake helps companies store, organise and use their data. Product revenue accelerated, guidance rose and management said AI products drove roughly half of the recent growth acceleration. AI becomes more useful when it can work safely with a company’s own data. </span></p> <p><span>Palo Alto Networks provides the security layer. More connected data, models and automated agents create more things to protect. Results were strong, but the shares fell as investors questioned how much growth came from acquisitions versus the underlying business. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Follow the bottlenecks, then follow the cash</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Broadcom controls scarce custom computing and networking technology. Dell benefits from physical deployment but ties up more capital. Snowflake monetises data usage. Palo Alto benefits from growing security complexity.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the better question is shifting from “who has AI exposure?” to “what bottleneck does this company control, and how efficiently does it turn demand into cash?”</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The main risk is that infrastructure spending eventually runs ahead of real AI usage. Customer concentration also matters, especially when a few hyperscalers drive demand. </span>Expectations remain demanding.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Track whether AI orders keep turning into delivered systems</strong>, not only announced projects. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare revenue growth with margins and free cash flow</strong> to judge growth quality. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch whether enterprise AI usage spreads</strong> into data, security and recurring software spending. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The AI trade is becoming a bottleneck hunt</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first phase of the AI boom rewarded scarce computing power. These four earnings reports suggest the second phase is becoming more interesting.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom shows custom silicon and networking becoming a serious second pillar of AI infrastructure. Dell confirms physical deployment remains strong. Snowflake shows AI moving into enterprise data, while Palo Alto shows that more automation creates more need for control.</span></p> <p><span>The lesson is not to guess which logo wins the AI race. It is to ask who controls a bottleneck, who gets paid repeatedly and who converts demand into cash. As AI spreads through the stack, those questions may matter more than the headline growth rate.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Shares and bonds rebound as oil prices steady - 03 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:50:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A weak private jobs count did little to cool expectations of a Fed hike</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US equities rebounded as technology recovered, Europe stayed under pressure from yields, Asia advanced as bond markets stabilised.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Miners led the sector higher while the exchange and treasury names lagged</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude steadies, precious metals rebound from three-session slide; wheat retreats from 3½-year high</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Treasury yields rolled over Wednesday after fresh highs. Big rally in longest-dated Japanese government debt overnight after strong 30-year auction.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Japanese yen rallied sharply Wednesday and early Thursday, sparking intervention rumours. CAD higher post-BoC.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US hiring slowed sharply.</strong> <strong>Private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August</strong> on the ADP measure, the weakest since January and below the 47,000 expected. Markets nonetheless <strong>moved to a 61% chance of a Federal Reserve hike in September</strong>, up from roughly 40% a week earlier, probably driven more by this week’s renewed oil-driven inflation impulse than by the labour data. <strong>Factory orders rose 0.9% in July</strong>, rebounding from a 0.2% fall and beating the 0.6% forecast, led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment.</li> <li>The <strong>Bank of Canada held at 2.25%</strong> while warning of stronger upside inflation risks from energy, the Middle East conflict and renewed US tariffs. <strong>Australian second-quarter GDP beat estimates</strong>, lifting the three-year yield by close to 10 basis points.</li> <li><strong>Today's calendar highlight is the US August ISM Services survey</strong>, expected near unchanged versus July’s 54.1 reading. Some focus will be on the Employment sub-index after July’s surprise dip to 47.4, suggesting weakening hiring plans. Weekly <strong>initial jobless claims</strong> are expected at 205,000 against 203,000. <strong>US August jobs data are up on Friday</strong>, with consensus for a non-farm payrolls change of +58k after a decline of -23k the prior month. After Fed Chair Warsh recently emphasised the Fed’s focus on too-high inflation, next Friday’s September CPI data looks particularly important.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0630 – Switzerland Aug. CPI</li> <li>0700 – Switzerland Q2 GDP</li> <li>0930 – US Aug. Challenger Job Cuts</li> <li>1030 – Sweden Riksbank Governor Thedeen to speak</li> <li>1230 – US Fed’s Waller (voter) to speak</li> <li>1230 – US Jul. Trade Balance</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1400 – US Aug. ISM Services</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Today</strong>: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% and the Dow added 0.6%, ending a three-session losing streak as bond yields stabilised and investors returned to beaten-down stocks. Dell surged 15.8% after lifting its annual revenue outlook to $192 billion on stronger AI-server demand, while Nvidia gained 3.2% as chip stocks rebounded. Palo Alto Networks fell 9.3% despite solid results as its free-cash-flow margin outlook disappointed elevated expectations. After hours, Broadcom initially fell 3.7% after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $34.8 billion, below consensus, while Snowflake jumped 23.7% after raising its full-year product-revenue outlook on stronger cloud and AI demand.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2%, the DAX lost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.3% as elevated bond yields and renewed Middle East tensions kept inflation concerns alive. Retailers were among the weakest groups, with Zalando down 4.7%, while Lottomatica fell 7.6% after announcing a takeover of Spain’s Cirsa. The Swiss market bucked the trend, with the SMI gaining 0.2%. Investors now remain focused on oil prices, bond yields and the next signals from major central banks.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities turned lower in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.2% as the stronger yen and renewed pressure on technology shares weighed on sentiment. SoftBank rebounded 1.5%, while Samsung Electronics fell 2.4% and SK Hynix dropped around 3.0%. Investors remained focused on Friday’s US payrolls report and whether central banks will need to tighten further.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The coins barely moved and the equity complex split. <strong>Miners led, IREN up 7.55%, Riot 4.75% and Cipher 3.90%</strong> on continued artificial intelligence and data-centre demand, while <strong>Coinbase fell 1.05% and Strategy 1.35%</strong>. Block rose 5.88%.</li> <li>Fund flows stayed supportive, with <strong>US spot bitcoin funds taking in about USD 2.6 billion over the past week</strong>. On policy, the Senate test for the US Crypto Clarity Act is set for mid-September, and industry confidence in passage before the midterm elections appears to be fading.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> <strong>Crude prices steadied after a three-day rally</strong>, with Brent holding near USD 95 as President Donald Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would be short-lived, while US officials said 17 million barrels of oil exited the Strait on Monday, signalling robust flows through the waterway. Adding to the more constructive tone, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China is willing to work with Middle Eastern countries to “safeguard” shipping through key regional waterways. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles recorded their first decline since July as exports rose to the highest since June and refineries processed the most crude in seven years.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> <strong>Precious metals, led by gold, trade higher for a second day</strong>, supported by softer US economic data and lower oil prices, which have helped arrest the rise in bond yields. Additional support has come from a softer dollar, particularly against the Japanese yen, which is once again on intervention watch. While the market is pricing a more than 60% probability of a September rate hike, the question remains whether the Fed will tighten that close to the November midterm elections. For now, gold’s inverse correlation with oil prices and bond yields remains a key focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers. Fibonacci resistance is seen at USD 4,441 and USD 4,490.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> <strong>Chicago wheat futures turned lower after reaching a 3½-year high</strong>, as traders booked profits while assessing continued threats to Black Sea grain exports. Russia reportedly rejected a moratorium on attacks in the region before striking Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa, while Ukraine’s largest farm union warned exporters not to expect deepwater ports to resume operations soon. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a mechanism to ensure the permanent safety of commercial shipping before the grain crisis escalates further. Corn and soybeans also retreated from recent highs.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global bond yields rolled over slightly lower after new cycle highs Wednesday.</strong> The benchmark US 2-year Treasury yield tested just above 4.40% Wednesday, nearly matching the intraday high of early 2025 before rolling over several basis points and trading at 4.365% early Thursday. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped back to 4.77% early Thursday after an intraday high of 4.816%.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yield curve bull flattened</strong> as rates at the front end of the curve were steady to slightly lower, while the longest-dated JGBs rallied sharply, sending yields tumbling. After strong demand for 30-year JGBs at a government auction, the benchmark 30-year JGB yield had fallen nine basis points by late Tokyo trading Thursday to 4.084%, after testing the record-high yield for the debt just a day before with an intraday high of 4.217%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Japanese yen rallied sharply Wednesday on no readily identifiable catalyst, sparking rumours of a fresh wave of official intervention to strengthen the currency.</strong> The move unfolded as USDJPY was trading above 159.50 and it spiked as low as 158.22 before rebounding to 159.00 and then dipping again early Thursday as low as 157.55. Other JPY crosses fell sharply as volatility in currencies was muted elsewhere: EURJPY dropped to below 183.00 after trading above 185.00, while GBPJPY fell to below 213.00 from above 216.00.</li> <li><strong>Sterling traded weakly Wednesday as the clearly defined chart resistance in EURGBP of the last two months at 0.8580 fell.</strong> EURGBP traded as high as 0.8595 early Thursday. Recent large rises in UK Gilt yields in line with global peers are seen as likely removing budget headroom for new Prime Minister Burnham’s initiatives and spending plans.</li> <li><strong>The Canadian dollar rallied sharply in the wake of the Bank of Canada rate decision</strong> to hold rates as expected. Governor Tiff Macklem raised the level of concern over inflationary pressures in Canada stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Macklem was somewhat dismissive of the impact of higher US tariffs for now, as they are to be assessed on a “narrow base” of Canadian goods, but did mention rising growth concerns should the base of the tariffs widen. Canadian 2-year government bond yields jumped about eight basis points and the odds of a BoC hike at the December meeting rose to near certainty. USDCAD rolled over to trade near 1.3835 by early Thursday after an intraday high before the BoC meeting of 1.3940.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 03 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 3 Sep, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>RBNZ hikes to 2.75%. BoC holds at 2.25% but warns of higher inflation </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >US indices rise; Snowflake rises 23% after strong earnings </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Hawkish BOJ comments and intervention speculation drove USDJPY down to 158.71 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Oil eases after Trump downplays prolonged conflict </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >Japan 10-year yields hit 3% since 1996 </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>US carried out new strikes on Iranian IRGC targets near the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong><span>, driving a sustained oil rally and reviving inflation fears, though prices later eased after Trump downplayed the risk of a prolonged conflict.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong ><span>The latest ADP report showed US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August</span></strong><span >, the weakest gain since January and below the 47,000 expected, signaling a cooling labor market. Markets now see a 66% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 40% a week earlier.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>US factory orders rose 0.9% in July 2026, rebounding from a 0.2% drop in June</span></strong><span > and beating the 0.6% forecast. Gains were led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment, including a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft. Orders ex-transportation rose 0.6%, and ex-defense increased 1.0%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The RBNZ delivered a second straight 25 bp hike to 2.75% but signaled a slower tightening path than markets expected. I</span></strong><span >t now projects the cash rate at 2.81% by December and 3.15% by end-2027, below the roughly 3.5% peak priced in, and said further hikes are likely but timing is uncertain.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>BoC left its policy rate at 2.25% but warned of stronger upside inflation risks from higher energy prices</span></strong><span >, the Middle East war, and renewed US tariffs, while saying the outlook remains too uncertain to guide future moves.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Australia Q2 GDP beat estimates, sending the 3-year yield up nearly 10 bps</strong><span >, while earnings beats are outpacing misses for the first time in four years.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong >Equities:</strong><strong ><span> </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7,666.60 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as oil prices stalled and bargain hunters returned. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, led by materials and communication services. <strong>Dell Technologies surged 15.8% on a solid earnings outlook. </strong>Meta Platforms gained 3.1% and Nvidia rose 3.2%, while Palo Alto Networks fell 9.3%. <strong>In after-hours trading, Broadcom slid as much as ~3.7% after issuing a Q4 revenue forecast that missed expectations ($34.8b vs $35.03b). Snowflake rose 23% after a strong earnings report and upbeat guidance, with revenue jumping 35% yoy, largely driven by new accounts of its AI coding agent CoCo.</strong></li> <li><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities extended their losing streak on Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 645.91, its lowest close since 29 July, led lower by industrials — Siemens dropped 1.5% and Lottomatica fell 7.6%. The DAX declined 0.5% to 25,839, with Zalando down 4.7%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,756, with LSE Group down 3.0% and Kingfisher falling 3.8%. The SMI bucked the trend, rising 0.2%, led by UBS (+1.1%) and Alcon (+1.8%). Index changes were also announced: Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Dutch utility Stellantis. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian equities are advancing this morning, tracking Wall Street's recovery, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge up ~0.5%. Japan's Nikkei had fallen 2.9% to 64,325 on Wednesday — its lowest in nearly a month — as oil prices and elevated bond yields pressured tech and auto stocks. South Korea's Kospi tumbled ~4% on Wednesday, led by chip stocks Samsung, SK Hynix and SK Square, amid rising oil and rate-hike fears. Australian ASX 200 fell 1% after the stronger-than-expected GDP print reinforced RBA rate-hike expectations. Hong Kong and mainland China markets also declined ~1% or more on Wednesday. The yen's sharp overnight move is also keeping traders alert. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Earnings this week:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>Thursday: Ciena </li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>A sharp BOJ‑driven yen rally pushed<strong> USDJPY</strong> down over 200 pips (160.39–158.22) and it closed at 158.71, amid stop‑run‑like price action and only moderate JPY futures volumes, casting doubt on actual Japanese intervention. </li> <li><strong >CAD</strong><span > outperformed on hawkish Bank of Canada rhetoric, with </span><strong >USDCAD</strong><span > falling to ~1.3842 and 2-year yields jumping, while Citi initiated a short </span><strong >USDCAD</strong><span > position targeting 1.35. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >EURUSD</strong><span > slipped to 1.1588, breaking below its 21-day moving average and showing mixed Harami patterns on weekly (bearish) and daily (bullish) charts. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD</strong><span > closed at 0.7169, the weakest G10 performer, as higher oil prices amid rising US–Iran tensions pressured Asia FX. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >SGD</strong><span >'s 120-day correlation with the</span><strong > USD </strong><span >has dropped to -0.94, the most inverse link since May 2024 and the most negative in Asia, positioning it as a key beneficiary if the dollar debasement trade accelerates. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >KRW </strong><span >has transformed from Asia's worst-performing currency to its best, driven by AI-related capital inflows from chip firms repatriating overseas earnings. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>WTI crude </strong>settled above $90 per barrel on Wednesday after a sharp two-day rally driven by US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had briefly hit ~$95 before easing as President Trump played down the prospect of a prolonged conflict. </li> <li><strong >Gold </strong><span >traded around $4,330–$4,416 per ounce, having fallen nearly 6% over the prior three sessions to a two-week low as surging global bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the non-yielding metal. Gold mining stocks, however, had their best August since at least 1994, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li>After a sharp sell-off that pushed the <strong>10-year yield</strong> to its highest since October 2023 (~4.81%) and the 30-year to ~5.27% — levels last seen before Treasury Secretary Bessent expanded the buyback programme — yields edged slightly lower on Wednesday. The 1-year yield fell 2.3bps to 4.16%, the 10-year fell 0.5bps to 4.796%, and the 30-year fell 0.7bps to 5.268% by the close. </li> <li> The rout spread across markets, with<strong > Japan's 10-year yield</strong><span > touching 3% for the first time since 1996, </span><strong >UK 30-year gilt yields</strong><span > hitting 5.89% — the highest since May 1998 — and </span><strong >German 10-year Bund yields</strong><span > reaching their highest since 2011. </span></li> <li>Overnight swaps were pricing a full 25bp Fed rate hike at the October policy meeting, with nearly 70% odds of a hike as early as 16 September. BOJ board member Hajime Takata also left the door open for an outsized rate increase, pushing Japanese front-end yields higher during the Asian session. </li> </ul> <p><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span ></span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span ></span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Have we entered the event horizon for a volatility spike?</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Global bond markets remain chief focus.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/have-we-entered-the-event-horizon-for-a-volatility-spike/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <ul> <li>Ole's latest piece pointing out that <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/the-companies-powering-ai-are-outperforming-those-building-it-02092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers</a></span> on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons.</li> <li>A <span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/g20-countries-should-consider-more-trade-barriers-with-china-cut-imbalances-2026-08-30/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies</a></span>. This sparked an <span><a href="https://x.com/stevehou/status/2094363161696653812" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip</a></span> on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed <span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/why-the-world-needs-to-force-chinas-yuan-to-revalue-2db5ff9c" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval</a></span>. </li> </ul> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Jobs built the products. Cook built the machine. What does Apple’s new CEO build next?</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Ternus inherits 2.5 billion active devices,</strong> a huge services business and one of corporate America’s strongest cash machines.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Apple’s biggest AI question</strong> is not whether it builds the best model, but whether it keeps controlling the consumer interface.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Watch installed-base growth, services, new-product adoption and capital allocation</strong> rather than judging the Ternus era by keynote applause.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Steve Jobs built products. Tim Cook built the machine around them. John Ternus now has to decide where that machine goes next.</span></p> <p><span>Ternus officially became Apple’s chief executive officer (CEO) on 1 September 2026, after 25 years at the company and a long spell running hardware engineering. Cook remains executive chairman, giving Apple something close to continuity with new management. </span></p> <p><span>Investors appeared comfortable with the handover, with Apple shares rising even as the broader market fell. The bigger question is much more interesting: how much does management matter when the business already owns one of the strongest moats in the world?</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The moat is already doing much of the work</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Ternus does not inherit a turnaround. He inherits an ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>Apple has more than 2.5 billion active devices, while Services has grown into a business generating more than 100 billion USD a year. Every iPhone can lead to AirPods, an Apple Watch, iCloud, payments, entertainment and, eventually, another iPhone.</span></p> <p><span>That is Apple’s compounding engine. Hardware brings customers in. Services deepen the relationship. A larger installed base creates more opportunities to sell both.</span></p> <p><span>Capital allocation completes the picture. Apple continues to return tens of billions of dollars through buybacks and dividends. For investors influenced by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, this is where management matters most.</span></p> <p><span>Apple does not need managerial heroics. It needs discipline. Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>AI may test who really owns the customer</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Artificial intelligence (AI) is the clearest strategic challenge.</span></p> <p><span>Apple has looked unusually slow while OpenAI, Alphabet and others pushed ahead. But it may not need to build the biggest or smartest AI model to remain powerful.</span></p> <p><span>Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.</span></p> <p><span>That is why features such as Live Translation on AirPods matter. They turn AI from something impressive in a demo into something useful in everyday life. That is much closer to Apple’s traditional playbook than launching another chatbot.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is that the dashboard itself changes. If consumers increasingly start with an AI assistant rather than an app or operating system, Apple could lose some control over the customer relationship. Ternus must decide what Apple needs to own and where partnerships are enough.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The next iPhone does not have to be another iPhone</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Hardware still matters, particularly with a hardware engineer now in charge.</span></p> <p><span>Apple is preparing products ranging from a foldable iPhone to smarter home devices and more capable AirPods. None needs to become the next iPhone to create value.</span></p> <p><span>A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.</span></p> <p><span>That may be the more realistic innovation test for the Ternus era. Apple does not necessarily need another revolutionary category. It needs a steady stream of products and features that make the ecosystem more useful and leaving it slightly less attractive.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Where the machine could slow</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The biggest risk is that AI changes consumer behaviour faster than Apple adapts. Investors should watch whether Siri becomes genuinely useful, not simply better on stage.</span></p> <p><span>Product innovation matters too. Vision Pro showed that technical achievement does not automatically create a mass market. Supply-chain, regulatory and geopolitical pressures add another layer.</span></p> <p><span>Early warning signs would include slowing installed-base growth, weaker Services momentum or rising investment without better customer engagement.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Follow the ecosystem:</span></strong><span> installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Separate AI demos from behaviour:</span></strong><span> watch usage, upgrades and developer adoption.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Judge hardware by ecosystem value:</span></strong><span> smaller products can matter if they strengthen customer retention.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch the cash:</span></strong><span> buybacks, acquisitions and capital spending show where management sees future returns.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The machine gets a new driver</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Jobs built the products. Cook turned them into an extraordinarily efficient compounding machine.</span></p> <p><span>Ternus inherits something different: a machine that already works.</span></p> <p><span>His challenge is not simply to invent the next breakthrough. It is to decide where Apple must lead, where it can follow and where restraint is the better choice. AI, foldables and the home will test those decisions. For investors, the most important question is not whether Ternus changes Apple quickly. It is whether he understands which parts of the machine need changing at all.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Apple</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Energy shares have decisively outperformed Big Tech:</strong> Geopolitical supply disruptions and soaring refining and gas margins are delivering immediate cash-flow gains, while hyperscalers face mounting AI investment costs and uncertainty over future returns.</span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>The earnings gap reflects different investment cycles</strong>: Technology companies are committing unprecedented sums to AI infrastructure, while much of the associated revenue and return on capital remains years away. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Energy companies are monetising scarcity today</strong>: Wars, sanctions and disrupted trade flows have lifted crude oil, refined products and natural gas prices, immediately boosting cash flow from existing assets. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Refining has become exceptionally profitable</strong>: The US 3-2-1 crack spread has reached USD 63 per barrel, while even stronger European margins reflect diesel above USD 200 per barrel and expensive natural gas.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p> <p>The technology sector fuelled by the artificial-intelligence investment boom continues to generate strong revenue growth, but some of the strongest equity returns this year have come from the companies providing the energy needed to build and operate the infrastructure behind it.</p> <p>The contrast is striking. The seven energy majors shown in the table - ExxonMobil, Equinor, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and BP - have delivered an average year-over-year return of 38.5%, compared with 18% for the Magnificent Seven technology stocks. <span >The performance has been particular strong so far this year with all seven energy stocks having gained at least 25%, led by Equinor at 71%, while performance among the Magnificent Seven ranges from Apple’s 19.6% rise to Tesla’s 20.8% decline.<br /> <br /> <strong>Please note, that t</strong></span><strong >hese are simple equal-weight calculations, not formal index returns, and that p<span>ast performance is not indicative of future results.</span></strong></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Mag 7 and Energy 7 performance - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The divergence does not mean the AI story is failing. Technology earnings remain formidable, but the cost of maintaining that growth is escalating rapidly. Meta’s second-quarter revenue rose 28% to USD 60.8 billion, yet capital expenditure reached USD 31.1 billion and free cash flow fell to just USD 784 million. The company now expects full-year capital spending of USD 130–145 billion.</p> <p>Amazon offers a similar illustration. AWS operating income jumped to USD 16.6 billion from USD 10.2 billion a year earlier, but trailing 12-month free cash flow swung to an outflow of USD 7.6 billion as purchases of property and equipment increased by USD 66.1 billion, primarily reflecting investment in AI infrastructure.</p> <p>The hyperscalers can finance these programmes, but investors are increasingly focused on the timing and scale of the eventual returns. Much of today’s spending must be committed before future AI demand, utilisation rates and pricing power can be known with confidence.</p> <p>For the Energy Seven, the economics are almost the reverse. Higher commodity prices immediately lift revenue and cash flow from producing, processing and infrastructure assets already in operation. Years of restrained investment have limited spare capacity, while wars, sanctions and disrupted shipping routes have reduced the availability of crude oil, refined products and natural gas.</p> <p>The consequences are already visible in earnings. ExxonMobil reported second-quarter earnings of USD 14.5 billion, more than double the USD 7.1 billion earned a year earlier. Cash flow from operations reached USD 23.6 billion and free cash flow USD 17.2 billion, supported by higher prices, stronger margins and record second-quarter diesel production. Chevron earned USD 12.1 billion, achieved a 21% return on capital employed and reported record US production and refinery throughput.</p> <p>Equinor has been a particularly clear beneficiary of Europe’s scramble for secure energy. Its second-quarter adjusted operating income reached USD 11.5 billion, while net operating income more than doubled from a year earlier. The company realised USD 15.8 per MMBtu for European gas and USD 97.9 per barrel for liquids, with strong crude trading and refining performance providing additional support.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Crude, products and gas priced in USD per barrel - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Refining assets have become another major source of exceptional profits. The US 3-2-1 crack spread - the theoretical margin from converting three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate - is trading near USD 63 per barrel, compared with around USD 25 per barrel this time last year. That implies a remarkable margin before operating and other costs for refiners able to maintain high utilisation.</p> <p>Conditions are even tighter in Europe, where diesel has risen above USD 200 per barrel, more than USD 105 above Brent and well above the USD 28 per barrel at which the spread traded this time last year. The premium reflects disrupted supply from Russia and Middle East refiners as well as limited regional refining capacity and Europe’s continued dependence on imported crude and products. Companies combining upstream production, trading operations and refining assets are therefore benefiting at several stages of the value chain.</p> <p>European natural gas provides an equally dramatic example. EU gas is trading near USD 142 per barrel of oil equivalent, more than USD 45 above Brent and around eight times the prevailing US natural gas price. Europe’s shortage of indigenous supply and dependence on seaborne LNG, increasingly sourced from the US as Middle Eastern supplies remain close to offline, have created a substantial regional premium, handing a windfall to suppliers such as Equinor.</p> <p>The performance gap therefore reflects more than a temporary rotation from technology into traditional energy. The Magnificent Seven are spending vast sums today to support earnings expected tomorrow. The Energy Seven are harvesting exceptional cash flow today from scarcity, elevated prices and infrastructure that already exists.</p> <p>AI remains a powerful structural growth theme. However, its expanding requirement for electricity, natural gas, backup generation and grid infrastructure means some of its most immediate profits are accruing not only to those developing the technology, but also to those supplying the molecules and electrons needed to run it.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>1 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-strength-collides-with-higher-interest-rates-01092026" data-id="C39FB3CF093A4FF88850A98DE64ABB3C" data-type="Article">Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</a><br /> 29 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026</a><br /> 28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil tops USD 95 and global bond yields reach multi-decade highs - 02 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:50:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Stocks and bonds slid as surging oil prices fan inflation and rate-hike fears</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities fell as oil and yields rose, Asia sold off sharply as the same pressures intensified.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities bore the risk-off session while fund inflows kept building quietly</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Brent above USD 95 as gold drops to three-week low</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global yields lifted again Tuesday and early Wednesday, in part on the latest sharp rise in crude oil prices.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: The Japanese yen weakened to a new local low before rising early Wednesday on hawkish BoJ rhetoric. NZD punched lower by RBNZ guidance.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude oil topped USD 95 after the US-Iran conflict escalated further</strong> as American forces launched fresh strikes and Tehran retaliated. President Trump also downplayed prospects for diplomacy, saying he was “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table.” Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply curtailed, although Treasury Secretary Bessent said 17 million barrels of crude transited on Monday, suggesting Iran does not control the waterway.</li> <li><strong>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its official cash rate 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected</strong>, but lowered its 2027 forecast for the policy rate, taking short-term NZ yields sharply lower. The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply in the wake of the decision.</li> <li><strong>European inflation accelerated.</strong> <strong>Eurozone flash headline inflation rose to 3.3% year-on-year in August</strong> from 2.9% in July, the highest in close to three years, driven mainly by energy. Core inflation was little changed, which in our view softens the print somewhat. <strong>Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.3</strong>, the strongest since May 2022, on stronger new and export orders, although supply-chain pressures worsened. UK house prices rose 1.6% year-on-year, up from 1.4% but below the 2.1% forecast.</li> <li><strong>US July JOLTS job openings rose to 7.27 million</strong> from a downwardly revised 7.18 million, slightly below the 7.31 million consensus, while layoffs fell, leaving what looks like a low-hire, low-fire labour market. The <strong>ISM manufacturing gauge eased</strong> to 54.6 versus 55.2 expected and 55.6 in July, with the New Orders index dipping to 53.7 versus 56.8 expected and 56.7 in July and the Employment index falling to 51.2 versus 52.5 expected and 52.8 in July.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1215 – US ADP August Employment</li> <li>1345 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision</li> <li>1400 – US July Factory Orders</li> <li>1430 – EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report</li> <li>1800 – Fed Beige Book</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Today</strong>: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,631.47, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.3%, and the Dow fell 0.8% to 52,766.88, extending losses to a third session as higher oil prices and bond yields revived inflation and rate-hike concerns. Technology and consumer discretionary led declines while energy outperformed. CrowdStrike fell 6.9% as higher yields pressured growth software, while Micron lost 2.6% after unions representing most of its Taiwan workforce threatened strike action over bonuses. Apple bucked the selloff, rising 2.6% as John Ternus took over as chief executive from Tim Cook.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6% to 647.46, the DAX lost 1.1%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% as rising oil prices, inflation and bond yields pressured equities and ended the Stoxx 600’s five-month winning streak. Partners Group dropped 7.3% after its CEO departure and weaker-than-expected performance income, while SAP fell 3.5% amid another analyst downgrade and concerns over its pace of AI monetisation. Novartis gained 6.3% after positive late-stage multiple-sclerosis trial data. Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Wolters Kluwer.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities fell sharply in Wednesday trading as renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil and sovereign yields higher, deepening inflation and rate concerns. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down around 3.0%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.5%, the Hang Seng slipped 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.9%, with technology among the weakest areas. SoftBank Group fell 6.3% as Japanese technology shares sold off, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also weighed heavily on Seoul. The reversal from Tuesday’s more resilient session put oil prices, bond yields and expectations for further central-bank tightening firmly back at the centre of the market.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Listed crypto took the brunt of the risk-off session while the coins held up better. <strong>Circle fell 7.1% and BitMine 7.7%</strong>, with Coinbase down 6.8% and Strategy 6.1%, although IREN was close to unchanged. Bitcoin has since eased toward USD 77,000 in Asian hours.</li> <li>Fund flows kept moving the other way. <strong>US spot ether funds extended a net-inflow run to eleven sessions</strong>, and spot bitcoin funds took in USD 217 million on Monday. The Senate vote on the US Crypto Clarity Act is still outstanding after it missed the 60-vote threshold before the recess.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> <strong>WTI topped USD 92 a barrel and Brent USD 97</strong> earlier in the session before retracing slightly, reaching their highest levels since late July after the US struck two Iranian government vessels, apparently as part of a new “tanker-for-tanker” policy aimed at deterring Iran from attacking ships transiting Hormuz. Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, which host American forces. Disruption fears remain the key price driver as commercial vessel traffic through the Strait remains curtailed. European gas prices also surged to a three-year high. Meanwhile, the API reported a weekly drop in US crude stocks, the first in five weeks if confirmed by the EIA later.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Precious metals remain on the defensive, extending recent declines as renewed oil price gains stoke inflation risks, pushing up bond yields while raising Fed rate-hike expectations. Meanwhile, India’s Modi urged Indians to avoid buying gold unless necessary as a widening trade deficit and weaker rupee strain the economy. A USD 414 top-to-bottom slump over the past week has wiped out gold’s gains following Bessent’s Treasury buyback announcement, forcing some recently established longs to exit. For now, gold’s inverse correlation with rising oil prices and bond yields remains the main focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> US grain futures turned lower on Monday following a three-week surge that drove the BCOM Grains Index to a 12.3% gain last month amid escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels and global heat waves threatening output. While the supportive fundamental outlook remains intact, record hedge-fund buying has, within weeks, transformed the sector from underowned to a crowded long, leaving prices increasingly exposed to any deterioration in the technical or fundamental setup.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global bond yields continued rising Tuesday and early Wednesday</strong>, in part on the sharp fresh rise in oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz situation escalated again. The benchmark US 2-year Treasury yield rose more than five basis points Tuesday to a new high since early 2025 at 4.40%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield lifted as high as 4.81% after rising Monday above the key 4.75% level for the first time since January 2025. The next focus is 5.00%, a level that only traded briefly in late 2023 since 2007.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s short-term yields rose sharply</strong> on BoJ rhetoric and as US Treasury Secretary Bessent was seen encouraging further BoJ action on the sidelines of the G20 summit of central-bank and finance heads in North Carolina. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at a September rate hike and known hawkish BoJ member Takata also weighed in with comments supporting more policy tightening. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose more than five basis points to a new 31-year high of 1.85%. The 10-year JGB yield rose over three basis points Wednesday before dropping back more than two basis points to trade near 3.01% in late trading in Tokyo as Japan’s yield curve flattened.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar firmed slightly, but volatility remains extremely muted</strong>, likely as traders mull the risk of <strong>USDJPY</strong> intervention as that pair wandered to a new one-month high near 160.39 before Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at a September rate hike and BoJ hawk Takata weighed in with hawkish comments. This sent USDJPY back below 160.00 by early trading Wednesday in Europe, even as EURUSD traded near the low of the 24-hour and two-week range at 1.1580.</li> <li><strong>EURCHF rose to a new high for the year</strong>, trading just above the previous high-water mark of 0.9410, with the rise in global bond yields to new cycle highs the likely driver as the SNB maintains a zero-interest-rate policy for now.</li> <li><strong>The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to hike</strong> the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, as expected, as the bank said that further tightening was likely, but with the timing uncertain. The policy committee’s average forecast of the RBNZ policy rate for Q1 2027 fell slightly to 2.96% from 3.0% previously. NZDUSD fell from just below 0.5900 before the decision to as low as 0.5826, while AUDNZD rose sharply to 1.2233 from 1.2125, taking the exchange rate back within a stone’s throw of the 13-year high of 1.2288 from earlier this year.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Higher rates are back: The winners and losers of 5% bond yields</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><span class="underline; "><strong>Key points:</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span><strong>Cash flow matters more when money is expensive</strong></span>: Companies with strong free cash flow, low leverage and limited refinancing needs are better placed to keep investing and returning capital even when borrowing costs stay high.</li> <li><span><strong>Higher rates create clear winners and pressure points</strong>: </span>Quality financials, energy, commodities and defensive sectors can prove more resilient, while small caps, property, consumer discretionary and long-duration growth face a higher funding or valuation hurdle.</li> <li><span><strong>The reason rates are high still matters:</strong> </span>Strong growth can support financials and commodities, while inflation shocks or fiscal stress are more challenging for equities broadly. Higher rates call for selectivity, not simply abandoning risk.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span >Markets are once again facing higher bond yields across the US and other major economies, raising a tougher question for equity investors: how much should they be willing to pay for stocks when safer assets are offering more attractive returns? Higher yields also matter because they raise the discount rate used to value future earnings, putting pressure on equity multiples — especially for companies whose profits sit further into the future.</span></p> <p>But equities still play an important role in protecting purchasing power and capturing long-term growth, especially in an environment where inflation remains a risk. The challenge is finding businesses that can continue delivering earnings and cash flows even when the cost of capital stays elevated.</p> <p>For investors, that puts cash flow, balance-sheet strength and refinancing needs back at the centre of stock selection. Higher rates can favour businesses generating strong cash flows today, while raising the hurdle for companies whose valuations, growth or business models depend heavily on expensive financing.</p> <hr /> <h1 class="article-heading--1">What can withstand higher rates?</h1> <h3><span>1. Cash-rich quality</span></h3> <p>Strong cash generation, low refinancing needs and the ability to fund growth internally can become increasingly valuable as borrowing costs rise. Companies with strong balance sheets are generally less exposed to refinancing pressure and can continue investing even when capital becomes more expensive.<br /> <br /> However, strong balance sheets do not eliminate valuation or company-specific risks, and highly valued quality companies can still be vulnerable if earnings disappoint or bond yields rise further.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative company examples:</strong></span> Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Broadcom, Visa, Mastercard</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL)</p> <h3><span>2. Quality financials</span></h3> <p><span >Higher rates can support interest income and reinvestment yields, particularly for well-capitalised banks and insurers. Market volatility can also support exchanges and trading businesses. Companies with stronger balance sheets and diversified revenue streams may be better positioned than the financial sector as a whole.</span></p> <p>At the same time, persistently high rates can weaken credit quality, raise funding costs and increase loan losses, so the impact is not uniformly positive across financial companies.</p> <p><span ><strong>Illustrative company examples:</strong></span><span ><strong> </strong>JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire Hathaway, Chubb, DBS</span></p> <p><span><strong>Examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE)</p> <h3><span>3. Energy and commodity producers</span></h3> <p><span >Commodity producers can benefit when higher rates are being driven by stronger nominal growth, inflation, supply constraints or geopolitical risks. They can also provide diversification when rising commodity prices are themselves contributing to persistent inflation.</span></p> <p>However, commodity equities can be highly volatile and remain sensitive to global growth, commodity prices, regulation and geopolitical developments. A global slowdown accompanied by elevated rates would be considerably less supportive.</p> <p><span ><strong>Illustrative company examples:</strong> </span><span >Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, BHP, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoRan</span></p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), Commodities Select Strategy ETF (COMT), Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF (CMOD)</p> <h3><span>4. Healthcare and defensive cash flows</span></h3> <p><span >Healthcare demand is relatively insensitive to interest rates and the economic cycle. Large pharmaceutical and healthcare companies with strong cash generation may therefore offer relatively resilient earnings if higher rates begin to slow economic growth.</span></p> <p>Defensive demand does not remove company-specific risks, including drug-pipeline failures, patent expiries, pricing pressure, regulation and potentially demanding valuations.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative company examples:</strong></span> Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, AstraZeneca</p> <p><span><strong>Examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> iShares Global Healthcare ETF (IXJ), Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)</p> <h3><span>5. Consumer staples and pricing power</span></h3> <p>Higher rates may eventually slow household spending, but demand for everyday essentials tends to be more stable. Companies with strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power may be better able to maintain cash generation as financing conditions tighten.</p> <p>However, staples can still face margin pressure from higher input costs, weaker consumer demand and valuation risk, particularly when defensive sectors trade at elevated multiples.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative company examples:</strong></span> Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Walmart, Costco, Colgate-Palmolive, Nestlé</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)<br /> <br /> </p> <p><em>Note: The securities mentioned are provided for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment recommendations. Investors should assess individual securities based on their own objectives, risk tolerance and circumstances.</em></p> <div><hr /> </div> <h1 class="article-heading--1">Where are the vulnerabilities?</h1> <h3><span>1. Small caps and highly leveraged companies</span></h3> <p>Smaller companies often have less access to capital markets and greater reliance on bank loans and shorter-duration borrowing. Refinancing therefore becomes more painful when interest rates remain elevated.</p> <p>Not every small-cap company is highly leveraged, and companies with strong balance sheets can still outperform. But as a group, smaller companies generally face a higher funding hurdle than large cash-rich businesses.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SPSM)</p> <h3><span>2. Rate-sensitive property and housing</span></h3> <p>Property is one of the clearest areas where higher rates transmit directly into the economy.</p> <p>For REITs and property companies, higher rates raise refinancing costs and make bond yields more competitive with property income. For homebuilders, elevated mortgage rates can reduce housing affordability and demand.</p> <p>Strong rental growth, housing shortages and well-managed balance sheets can still offset some of these pressures, so selectivity matters.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR), SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB)</p> <h3><span>3. Consumer discretionary</span></h3> <p>Higher mortgage, auto-loan and credit-card rates reduce disposable income and make consumers more cautious about large or optional purchases. The pressure tends to be greatest for lower-income consumers and businesses dependent on financed purchases.</p> <p>Not all discretionary spending suffers equally: affluent consumers and companies with strong brands can remain resilient even when rates are high.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)</p> <h3><span>4. Long-duration and speculative growth</span></h3> <p>Higher interest rates raise the discount rate applied to future earnings. That matters most for companies where much of today's valuation depends on profits expected many years from now.</p> <p>The pressure can be even greater for businesses that are still burning cash and need external funding to grow.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS)</p> <p>This is also where the distinction between <span>profitable AI leaders and speculative AI stories</span> becomes increasingly important. High rates do not necessarily hurt technology; they raise the bar on valuation and profitability.</p> <h3><span>5. Emerging markets with funding pressure</span></h3> <p>Persistently high US yields can support the dollar and increase financing costs for governments and companies reliant on dollar funding. Markets with large external borrowing requirements can therefore become more vulnerable when global liquidity tightens.</p> <p>But emerging markets should not be treated as one trade. Commodity exporters, countries with high real yields and economies with strong current-account positions can prove considerably more resilient.</p> <p><span><strong>Illustrative examples of ETFs providing exposure to this theme:</strong></span> iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Small-Cap ETF (EEMS), iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)<br /> <em><br /> <br /> Note: The securities mentioned are provided for illustrative and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment recommendations. Investors should assess individual securities based on their own objectives, risk tolerance and circumstances.</em></p> <hr /> <h1 class="article-heading--1">The bigger message</h1> <p>The key divide in a higher-rate environment is not simply growth versus value or cyclicals versus defensives.</p> <p>It is increasingly: <span><strong>Cash generators vs. cash borrowers.</strong></span></p> <p>Companies with strong free cash flow, manageable debt and pricing power can continue investing even when capital becomes expensive. Businesses dependent on refinancing, cheap mortgages or profits far into the future face a much tougher hurdle.</p> <p>Higher rates do not mean abandoning equities. They mean being more demanding about what you own.<br /> <br /> <br /> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Theme Category - Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Heating Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Theme - Oil and gas majors</span> <span>Theme - Big pharma</span> <span></span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>7 dividend stocks that can still compete with 5% bond yields</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span >Income investors suddenly have more competition for their money.</span></p> <p><span>US Treasury yields have surged again, with the 10-year approaching 5% as markets contend with sticky inflation, higher oil prices, heavy government borrowing and renewed expectations of a Fed hike. Rising yields are also becoming a global story, tightening financial conditions well beyond the US.</span></p> <p><span>That raises an important question for dividend investors:</span></p> <p><strong><span>If relatively safe government bonds can offer close to 5%, what should investors demand before taking equity risk for income?</span></strong></p> <p><span>A high dividend yield alone is not enough. The payout needs to be supported by cash flows, ideally have room to grow, and offer something bonds cannot—whether that is earnings growth, inflation protection or the potential for capital appreciation.</span></p> <p><span>Here are seven global stocks that offer different ways to approach the new income hurdle.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>1. Verizon: high yield backed by recurring cash flows</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 5.5%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Verizon remains one of the higher-yielding large US defensive stocks. Its current quarterly dividend is <strong>$0.7075 per share</strong>, up from $0.69 previously, continuing a long history of gradual dividend increases.</span></p> <p><span>The attraction is relatively predictable subscription revenue combined with a yield already above most large US equities.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> free cash flow, debt reduction and competitive pressure in wireless.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>2. Pfizer: a 6% yield, but with more questions attached</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 6%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Pfizer offers one of the highest yields on this list. The company currently pays $0.43 per quarter, or $1.72 annually, equivalent to roughly a 6% yield at recent prices. It has also paid <strong>351 consecutive quarterly dividends</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>But this is also a useful reminder that high yield can reflect investor concerns. Pfizer continues to work through its post-pandemic earnings reset, patent expiries and the need for newer products to drive growth.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> pipeline execution, oncology growth, cost savings and whether earnings can sustainably cover the payout.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>3. BNP Paribas: European banking income</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 5%</span></strong></p> <p><span>European banks remain interesting for income investors because many combine relatively high payouts with earnings that can remain supported if rates stay elevated.</span></p> <p><span>BNP Paribas provides diversified exposure across corporate banking, markets and European retail banking rather than relying on a single source of earnings.</span></p> <p><span>The bigger question is whether higher yields remain supportive or eventually become restrictive enough to weaken credit growth and asset quality.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> net interest income, loan losses, capital returns and European growth.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>4. AXA: dividend growth plus higher reinvestment yields</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 5%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Insurance offers a slightly different way to approach higher rates.</span></p> <p><span>AXA's dividend has increased from <strong>€1.43 in 2020 to €2.32 for 2025</strong>, with the latest payout rising from €2.15 the previous year.</span></p> <p><span>Insurers can also benefit over time as maturing bonds are reinvested at higher yields, provided underwriting performance remains sound.</span></p> <p><span>That combination of <strong>income today plus potentially stronger investment income tomorrow</strong> makes insurers particularly interesting in a higher-for-longer environment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> underwriting margins, investment income, solvency ratios and catastrophe losses.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>5. Sanofi: lower yield, stronger dividend history</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 5+%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Sanofi does not offer the highest current yield, but its dividend record stands out.</span></p> <p><span>Its 2026 dividend increased <strong>5.1% to €4.12 per share</strong>, marking the <strong>31st consecutive annual increase</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That puts Sanofi in a different category from a stock such as Pfizer. Investors are accepting a somewhat lower current yield in exchange for a stronger history of dividend growth and exposure to healthcare earnings that are less tied to the economic cycle.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> drug launches, pipeline execution and whether earnings growth keeps pace with dividend increases.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>6. Eni: income with an oil-price kicker</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative yield: around 4.5%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Energy stocks offer something bonds do not: the potential for cash flows to rise with commodity prices.</span></p> <p><span>Eni plans to pay <strong>€1.10 per share for 2026, up 5% from last year</strong>, and recently more than doubled its original share-buyback plan to €3.4 billion following stronger results.</span></p> <p><span>There is also a particularly timely feature. Eni's shareholder-return framework allows for additional distributions when oil, gas or refining margins materially exceed its assumptions.</span></p> <p><span>With oil prices elevated again amid Middle East tensions, that makes Eni a more macro-sensitive income name.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> Brent prices, refining margins, production growth and whether elevated energy prices persist.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>7. DBS: Singapore's income anchor</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Indicative total distribution yield: around 4%</span></strong></p> <p><span>DBS provides the Singapore component of the list.</span></p> <p><span>The bank currently pays a <strong>S$0.66 quarterly ordinary dividend plus a S$0.15 quarterly capital-return dividend</strong>, taking the annualised distribution to S$3.24 per share.</span></p> <p><span>Its dividend story has strengthened significantly in recent years, supported by strong earnings and excess capital. Higher rates can help banking profitability, although the benefit becomes less straightforward if funding costs rise or growth slows sharply.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> net interest margins, fee income, credit costs and the sustainability of excess-capital returns.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>Not all dividend yields are equal</span></strong></h2> <p><span>A stock yielding 6% because its earnings are deteriorating can be less attractive than one yielding 4% with growing cash flows and a rising dividend.</span></p> <p><span>Likewise, investors should compare <strong>total return potential and risk</strong>, not simply the headline yield.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What could go wrong?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Dividend equities carry risks that government bonds do not.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Dividends are not guaranteed.</span></strong><span> Companies can reduce or suspend payouts.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Share prices can fall</span></strong><span>, potentially more than offsetting the income received.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Higher yields can hurt leveraged companies</span></strong><span> by increasing refinancing costs.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Banks and insurers face credit and balance-sheet risks</span></strong><span> if higher rates eventually trigger a downturn.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Energy dividends depend partly on commodity prices</span></strong><span>, which can reverse quickly.</span></li> <li><strong><span>High yields can be warning signals.</span></strong><span> Pfizer's elevated yield, for example, comes alongside significant earnings and pipeline uncertainty.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Currency matters.</span></strong><span> Investors buying European, US or Singapore shares may face FX moves in addition to equity risk.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>There is also a broader macro risk: the best environment for these stocks is arguably <strong>high but orderly yields</strong>. A disorderly bond selloff that pushes borrowing costs sharply higher could hurt equity valuations across the board.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>The 5% bond test</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The return of high sovereign yields does not make dividend investing obsolete.</span></p> <p><span>It simply raises the hurdle.</span></p> <p><span>For income stocks to justify taking equity risk, investors may increasingly want at least one of three things:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>A genuinely high and sustainable yield</span></li> <li><span>A credible history of dividend growth</span></li> <li><span>Earnings that can benefit from the same macro forces pushing bond yields higher</span></li> </ul> <p><span>With government bonds once again offering meaningful income, dividend investors can afford to become much more selective.</span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>All ideas</span> <span>Income</span> <span>Macro</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 2 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US strikes Iran after they fired on tankers transiting SoH</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Dell rose 8% in post market after raising revenue outlook by $25b</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Hawkish Fed and higher oil lift USD; USDJPY above 160</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil at 6-week highs; gold at 2-week low</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Global yields hit 2008 highs; front-end Treasuries lead selloff</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US-Iran escalation drives global risk-off:</span></strong><span> The US launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran retaliating. President Trump confirmed the strikes on Truth Social, stating they were in response to Iran's attempt to deploy sea mines in the waterway. The escalation has sharply curtailed commercial vessel traffic through the Strait, stoking energy supply disruption fears globally.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Bessent said Iran’s bankruptcy is in the “acceleration phase” and noted that 17 million barrels</span></strong><span> of crude moved through Hormuz on Monday, suggesting Tehran lacks control of the strait.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.3 in August 2026</span></strong><span> from 54.1 and 52.2 in July, the strongest since May 2022, driven by stronger new and export orders. Supply chain pressures worsened, prompting more input buying, while input cost inflation eased but stayed elevated.</span></li> <li><strong><span>UK house prices rose 1.6% year-on-year in August 2026</span></strong><span>, up from 1.4% in July but below the 2.1% forecast, with activity still subdued amid economic uncertainty and higher energy costs. Affordability has improved as prices trail earnings, though higher mortgage rates offset some benefits. Month-on-month, prices rose 0.2% after a 0.1% fall in July.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US JOLTS — July job openings:</span></strong><span> Available positions rose to 7.27 million from a downwardly revised 7.18 million in June, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus of 7.31 million. Layoffs fell, suggesting the labour market remains in a low-hire, low-fire environment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US ISM Manufacturing:</span></strong><span> The factory gauge eased but held close to a four-year high, providing a broadly constructive read on industrial activity even as rate-hike fears mount.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Eurozone flash CPI — August:</span></strong><span> Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year from 2.9% in July, the highest reading in nearly three years, driven primarily by energy prices. Core inflation was little changed, providing some nuance to the print.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities fell for a third consecutive session on Tuesday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% to 7,631.47, the Nasdaq 100 shed 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.8% to 52,766.88, breaking below its 50-day moving average. Energy outperformed while consumer discretionary and technology led declines. <strong>CrowdStrike fell nearly 7%, transportation stocks were hit hard (Saia -6.4%, Old Dominion -6.3%), and Micron weighed on semis after reports of threatened strike action at its Taiwan operations</strong>. Apple bucked the trend, rising after John Ternus took over as CEO from Tim Cook. Deere hit an all-time high. <strong>In after-hours, Dell surged ~7% after raising its annual sales outlook by $25b on strong demand for its AI servers</strong>, while Credo Technology (CRDO) slipped ~7.1%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities fell on Tuesday, ending a five-month winning streak. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.6% to 647.46, the DAX fell 1.1% to 25,970.11, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.8% to 6,368.98. The FTSE 100 lost 0.3% to 10,789.28. Rolls-Royce was the largest drag on both the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100, falling 4.6%. Partners Group had the largest percentage drop at -7.3%. SAP fell 3.5% in Frankfurt. Novartis bucked the trend, rising 6.3% and lifting the SMI 0.3%. In index news, Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Wolters Kluwer.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday but futures point to a weaker open on Wednesday. Japan's Topix rose 0.6% for a ninth straight day of gains, led by utilities (Kyushu Electric +8.2%, TEPCO +6.4%) on oil price-driven tariff hike hopes, while the Nikkei 225 dipped 0.15% to 66,215.34 as semis weighed. <strong>MediaTek surged ~10% in Taiwan after Nvidia announced a $3.5 billion investment. </strong>The Hang Seng saw ICBC, Bank of China, and CCB hit record highs, though NIO fell as much as 9% after reporting flat August deliveries and missing Q3 revenue guidance. The STI fell 0.8% to 5,710.37, with DFI Retail the worst performer and Sembcorp Industries the top gainer (+2.4%). Kospi 200 futures closed down 3.5% overnight, pointing to a sharp open lower, with the SOX index down over 2% providing a weak lead for memory-related names.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Wednesday: <strong>Broadcom</strong>, Snowflake</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Ciena</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD </span></strong></span><span>extended gains against most major peers on Tuesday, driven by rising oil prices following fresh US-Iran hostilities that heightened concerns over energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% to 1,198.31.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> breached the 160 level, with risks skewed to the upside after clearing key resistance. Treasury Secretary Bessent signalled support for Japan raising rates to bolster the yen. </span></li> <li><strong>GBPUSD</strong> came under pressure as gilts led a global bond selloff — 10-year UK yields climbed as much as 11 bps to 5.25%, with traders pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes by February. </li> <li><strong>AUDUSD</strong> closed 0.3% lower in New York, weighed by rising bond yields and the US-Iran escalation. The pair consolidated in early Wednesday trade ahead of Australia's Q2 GDP release. </li> <li><strong>USDCNH</strong> edged up 0.1% to 6.7224 after the PBOC set a slightly weaker fixing at 6.7809 vs. 6.7828 the prior day. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI crude</span></strong><span> topped $90 per barrel and Brent traded above $92–$94 on Tuesday, the highest levels since late July, as fresh US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation sharply escalated supply disruption fears. European gas prices also surged to a three-year high.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>dropped as much as 2.5% to around $4,330 per ounce — its lowest since mid-August — as surging global bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the non-yielding metal. The three-day decline is on pace for the largest such move in recent months, despite gold miners having posted their best August performance since 1994.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US 10-year Treasury yield</strong> rose to 4.796%, its highest since January 2025, while the 2-year reached 4.392%. The 30-year yield climbed back to 5.27%, erasing gains from Treasury Secretary Bessent's August buyback expansion. Japan's 10-year JGB yield touched 3.00% for the first time since 1996, UK 30-year gilts hit 5.89% — the highest since May 1998 — and Germany's 10-year Bund reached 3.364%, a level last seen in 2011. The global bond selloff has spread to EM, pushing yields higher from South Africa to South Korea.</span></li> <li><span>The curve flattened as oil prices climbed, with rate-hike premium added into overnight swaps. A late block trade in ultra 10-year note futures added to downside momentum. Traders are actively buying Treasury options targeting further yield rises, including a $6.5 million position targeting the 30-year yield reaching as high as 5.7% by end of November. The 52-week bill auction, however, attracted the strongest investor demand in a year, with the buyside takedown the largest since September 2025.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Shein finally goes public. Now comes the harder test</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span><strong>Shein’s advantage comes from testing tiny product batches and scaling winners quickly</strong>, not simply from selling cheap clothes.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>New tariffs, parcel fees and regulation are making that model more expensive</strong> and harder to reproduce across markets.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Inditex and H&M show why brand, inventory discipline and distribution can matter more</strong> than pure speed.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Shein taught fashion to behave a little like a social-media feed: test something, watch the reaction, then produce more of what people click on.</span></p> <p><span>On 1 September 2026, the China-founded, Singapore-headquartered retailer finally reached the Hong Kong stock market after failed attempts to list in New York and London. Its initial public offering (IPO) valued the company at roughly USD 26.5 billion, far below the near USD 100 billion valuation reached in 2022. Shares traded below the offer price during their first session.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the question is not whether Shein can still sell a lot of clothes. It is whether the machinery behind those sales remains as powerful when its regulatory and cost advantages start to fade.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The business model is the product</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Shein’s real innovation sits behind the screen.</span></p> <p><span>Traditional fashion retailers often decide months ahead what to sell and in what quantities. Shein instead launches designs in batches as small as 100 to 200 items, watches demand in real time and quickly reorders the products that work.</span></p> <p><span>That can reduce unsold stock and lets Shein offer huge variety without committing as much money upfront. In simple terms, Shein tries to make demand first and inventory second.</span></p> <p><span>But part of this machine was built around cheap cross-border shipping from China. The United States has removed an important duty exemption for low-value packages, while the European Union introduced a EUR 3 fee on many low-value e-commerce parcels in July.</span></p> <p><span>Those changes do not destroy Shein’s model. They make it less frictionless. Local warehouses and production can reduce tariff exposure, but also add cost and complexity. The test is whether Shein can preserve its speed while becoming a more conventional global retailer.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Zara and H&M are slower, but harder to dismiss</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is where Europe’s established fashion groups become useful comparisons.</span></p> <p><span>Inditex owns Zara and combines stores, online sales, tight inventory control and frequent product refreshes. Its first-quarter 2026 results showed sales growth and stronger gross profitability.</span></p> <p><span>H&M is in a different position. Sales have been softer, but the Swedish group has improved profitability and reduced inventory. Its latest results show that better stock management and cost control can still create value when revenue barely moves.</span></p> <p><span>Neither company can match Shein’s endless digital assortment. But speed is not the only useful measure.</span></p> <p><span>Inditex and H&M have established brands, physical distribution and long operating histories. They have already navigated fashion cycles, recessions and competitive shifts. Shein now has to prove that its newer model can survive a similar test.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The hidden cost of becoming normal</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The IPO gives Shein capital, visibility and a public valuation. It also removes some of the mystery.</span></p> <p><span>Investors can now watch whether growth returns, margins recover and higher logistics costs eat into each order. The old private-market valuation matters much less than what the business can earn under today’s rules.</span></p> <p><span>The risks are visible. Regulation could make ultra-cheap cross-border fashion more expensive. Competition from Temu, Zara and H&M could push marketing costs higher. Governance also deserves attention because Shein’s founders retain overwhelming voting control after the listing.</span></p> <p><span>Early warning signs include weaker repeat purchases, rising fulfilment and marketing costs, lower margins, or evidence that localising production makes the supply chain less efficient.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Compare growth with the cost required to produce it.</span></strong><span> Faster sales matter less if fulfilment and marketing costs rise faster.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch inventory and margins together.</span></strong><span> Strong retailers sell the right products without relying heavily on discounts.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Treat regulation as part of the business model. </span></strong><span>An advantage built on exemptions is less durable when those exemptions disappear.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Compare Shein with Inditex and H&M </span></strong><span>on durability, not only growth.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Speed was never the whole moat</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Shein’s story began with speed. It could spot a trend, test it cheaply and scale the winners before traditional retailers had finished planning the season. The IPO does not make that advantage disappear, but it changes the question investors need to ask. The contest is no longer about who can move fastest under the old rules. </span></p> <p><span>It is about who can keep moving when the rules, costs and expectations become tougher. Inditex and H&M show that slower systems can still create durable economics through brand, inventory discipline and distribution. Shein now has to prove that its digital engine can do the same. A fashion feed can refresh every second. A listed company has to compound for years.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Initial Public Offering (IPO)</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Commodities are complicating the inflation fight</strong>: Renewed strength across energy and agriculture is keeping inflation pressures elevated just as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has revived expectations for further US monetary tightening. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Global bond yields are flashing monetary and fiscal warnings</strong>: The US yield curve has bear-steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75%, while German and Japanese yields have reached multi-decade highs amid concerns about inflation, heavy government borrowing and debt sustainability. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Investment metals face a three-pronged headwind</strong>: Gold and silver have corrected lower as higher rate expectations, rising yields and a stronger dollar weigh on demand, although longer-term support from fiscal concerns, debasement risks and central-bank buying remains intact. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Industrial metals continue to defy macro headwinds</strong>: Supply tightness is partly offsetting the stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs, with zinc reaching a four-year high while copper holds firm near record levels.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Global markets have entered September facing an increasingly uncomfortable combination of rising commodity prices, sticky inflation, higher interest-rate expectations and concerns about government debt sustainability. Commodities sit near the centre of this tension, with renewed strength across energy and agriculture adding to inflation pressures just as central banks signal borrowing costs may need to remain elevated, or even rise further.</p> <p>The shift accelerated following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday. His renewed focus on restoring price stability prompted markets to increase expectations for further monetary tightening, pushing US yields and the dollar higher.</p> <p>The move has since broadened beyond the immediate repricing of Fed policy. The US Treasury curve has bear-steepened, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, its highest since January 2025. The selloff has also become global, with Germany's 10-year Bund yield reaching a 15-year high above 3.35%, while Japan's equivalent has reached 3% for the first time in more than three decades.</p> <p>At the front end, higher yields primarily reflect expectations for tighter monetary policy. Further out, investors are also demanding increased compensation for inflation uncertainty, heavy sovereign issuance and mounting fiscal risks. With US government debt having reached USD 40 trillion, rising borrowing costs risk becoming an increasingly important part of the macroeconomic story.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The commodities driving inflation continue to rise</strong></h2> <p>Tighter financial conditions have so far done little to contain several of the commodity markets contributing most directly to inflation. Since Jackson Hole, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has risen further, led by energy, grains and soft commodities, while precious metals have fallen. Put simply, the commodities creating the inflation problem have continued higher, while those traditionally bought to protect against its consequences have retreated.</p> <p>Energy remains the most immediate source of pressure. Crude oil has risen for a second session after renewed US-Iran hostilities raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has moved back above USD 92 per barrel, while already tight refined-product markets remain particularly exposed.</p> <p>In Europe, gasoil futures, the benchmark for diesel and jet fuel, trade above USD 183 per barrel, while natural gas has reached EUR 71.5/MWh, equivalent to roughly USD 24.3/MMBtu and more than eight times the US price. These elevated costs highlight Europe's continued dependence on imported energy and vulnerability to supply disruptions.</p> <p>Diesel's inflation impact extends well beyond transport into freight, agriculture, mining, construction and industrial production, while expensive natural gas raises electricity and manufacturing costs. This represents a supply-driven inflation shock that monetary policy cannot directly resolve. Central banks can suppress demand, but they cannot produce additional crude oil, refining capacity or natural gas. <strong><br /> <br /> <em>In simple terms, the commodities creating the inflation problem have continued higher, while the commodities traditionally bought to protect against its consequences have fallen</em>.</strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Food adds a second inflation front</strong></h2> <p>The Bloomberg Commodity Agriculture Total Return Index ended August at a 14-year high after surging 12.4% during the month. Strong gains across grains and soft commodities, led by sugar, wheat and corn, more than offset weakness in livestock. <span >Weather disruptions are affecting crops around the world, while renewed fighting between Russia and Ukraine has targeted critical export infrastructure around the Black Sea. With the region accounting for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, supply concerns have helped lift wheat prices towards a three-year high.</span></p> <p>Unlike energy, where higher prices feed relatively quickly into headline inflation, rising agricultural costs often take longer to reach consumers through processing, transportation and retail channels. The latest rally therefore raises the risk that food inflation remains elevated even if energy prices eventually stabilise. <span >Together, energy and agriculture leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off: inflation is being supported by supply constraints and geopolitical disruption, while tighter monetary policy risks putting additional pressure on economic activity and already stretched government finances.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Investment metals feel the heat</strong></h2> <p>Precious metals have taken the brunt of the monetary repricing. Gold and silver have both fallen by more than 4% since Friday as Warsh's speech produced three immediate headwinds: higher short-term rate expectations, rising real and nominal yields, and a stronger US dollar.</p> <p>The dollar has retained much of its post-Jackson Hole strength, while breaks below key technical support levels have triggered additional long liquidation from momentum-focused traders. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, while a stronger dollar raises their cost for non-US investors.</p> <p>However, the longer-term implications are less straightforward. Higher real rates driven by a credible inflation-fighting central bank are normally negative for gold. Higher long-term yields increasingly driven by concerns about debt sustainability, heavy sovereign issuance and fiscal credibility are a different matter.</p> <p>Persistently rising debt-servicing costs may eventually increase pressure on policymakers to prevent long-term borrowing costs from rising indefinitely. Gold therefore remains caught between two opposing forces: the immediate cost of money and longer-term concerns about the quantity and credibility of money. Continued central-bank demand and reserve diversification provide another structural source of support that is less sensitive to short-term changes in US rates.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Industrial metals defy the stronger dollar</strong></h2> <p>Interestingly, weakness in investment metals has not spread meaningfully to industrial metals. Ordinarily, a stronger dollar, higher yields and rising funding costs would represent a challenging combination for cyclically sensitive metals. Instead, persistent supply-side turbulence continues to offset concerns about demand and tighter financial conditions.</p> <p>Zinc has become the latest example, rising towards USD 4,000 per tonne on the LME and reaching its highest level since May 2022. Falling refined inventories outside China, constrained raw-material availability and tight positioning have supported the rally.</p> <p>Copper has also remained resilient after recently reaching record levels, with LME copper holding above USD 14,000 per tonne. Tight nearby availability and large volumes being pulled towards the US continue to support prices, while backwardation in both copper and zinc signals physical tightness.</p> <p>Supply challenges were highlighted by the latest production update from Chile, where statistics agency INE said output in the world's largest copper-producing country fell 9.4% year-on-year in July after severe storms struck mining regions. <span >The divergence between precious and industrial metals underlines that the current commodity rally is not simply a monetary phenomenon. Where physical availability is sufficiently tight, supply constraints continue to override macroeconomic headwinds.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>An increasingly difficult policy mix</strong></h2> <p>The coming weeks may determine which of these forces dominates. Further strength in oil, refined products and food could keep inflation expectations elevated and reinforce expectations for additional monetary tightening. That would remain a near-term headwind for gold and silver while potentially weighing on broader risk appetite and commodity demand.</p> <p>At the same time, higher policy rates and rising long-term yields increase borrowing costs across economies already carrying historically large debt burdens. The longer rates stay elevated, the greater the fiscal strain and the stronger the potential focus on debt sustainability, currency debasement and eventual policy intervention.</p> <p>Commodities are therefore caught between rising rates and rising inflation, but the pressures are far from uniform. Energy and agriculture continue to benefit from scarcity and geopolitical disruption, industrial metals remain supported by tight supply, while gold and silver are temporarily paying the price for tighter monetary conditions and a stronger dollar.</p> <p>The paradox is that if rising commodity prices force interest rates higher for longer, the resulting pressure on heavily indebted governments could eventually revive the fiscal and debasement concerns that have been among the strongest structural drivers of investment demand for precious metals.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Commodities post Jackson Hole - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold being weighed down by rate hike expectations and rising bond yields - Source: Bloomberg, Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>29 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-25-august-2026-31082026" data-id="608A3BBD2B8D47F4855289D34F95276D" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 25 August 2026</a><br /> 28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Sugar</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Global yield breakout dominates market focus.</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:04:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Japan's JGB's hit 30-year high yield.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/global-yield-breakout-dominates-market-focus/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <ul> <li><span><a href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggingface" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dwarkesh Patel's writeup on the crazy "Hugging Face indicident"</a></span> that was so much more, as AI agents went rogue and even took control of an AI research cluster at one point. </li> <li><span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-01/afd-german-far-right-firewall-is-facing-historic-threat-in-saxony-anhalt-vote" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Germany's political "firewall" against the far right may crumble in Saxony-Anholt</a></span> in this weekend's elections.</li> <li>Jim Bianco looks at <span><a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2094464159517962699" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the largest single driver of the swelling in S&P 500 profits this year: Anthropic's valuation</a></span>!</li> </ul> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>US Payrolls playbook: Can jobs derail a September Fed hike?</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>August payrolls are due Friday, 4 September at 8:30pm SGT</span></strong><span>, with consensus around <strong>50–60k</strong> and unemployment near <strong>4.1%</strong>.</span></li> <li><span>A <strong>50–60k print is not automatically weak anymore</strong>. Slower labour-force growth means the US needs fewer new jobs each month to keep unemployment stable.</span></li> <li><span>Payrolls can move FX sharply because they shift <strong>September Fed hike odds</strong>. But even a strong report is unlikely to fully settle the decision before CPI.</span></li> <li><span>Warsh has prioritised inflation and appears more focused on <strong>the trend across data</strong>, rather than one payroll print in isolation.</span></li> </ul> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>Why this report matters</span></strong></h2> <p><span>July’s weak payrolls and downward revisions raised concerns that the labour market was losing momentum. But unemployment remained low, and the broader backdrop still looks closer to cooling than outright deterioration.</span></p> <p><span>That means Friday is less about whether payrolls beat <strong>50k exactly</strong>, and more about whether the report shows the labour market is <strong>stabilising, reaccelerating or genuinely weakening</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Scenario 1: Strong jobs</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Think payrolls above <strong>100k</strong>, unemployment steady and wages firm.</span></p> <p><span>That would support the view that the labour market can tolerate tighter policy and push September hike odds higher. But with the Fed’s focus still on inflation, payrolls alone are unlikely to make a September hike fully priced.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AUD/USD lower</span></strong><span> for more beta if stronger jobs push yields higher and weigh on equities.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EUR/USD lower</span></strong><span> is the cleaner broad-USD expression.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>What confirms the move:</span></strong><span> a rise in the <strong>US 2-year yield</strong>. If yields do not respond, be cautious chasing USD higher.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Scenario 2: Around 30–70k, unemployment steady</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is where the headline can be misleading.</span></p> <p><span>A 50–60k payroll print may look weak by historical standards, but the US now needs far fewer new jobs to keep unemployment stable. Slower immigration and an ageing workforce have reduced labour-force growth, meaning modest hiring can still be consistent with a labour market near equilibrium.</span></p> <p><span>The first USD move could therefore prove exaggerated. Rather than chasing the initial move, watch for a reversal if unemployment and wages remain resilient.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our read:</span></strong><span> a 50–60k print by itself probably does little to change the September Fed story.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><span></span><strong ><span>Scenario 3: Negative payrolls + higher unemployment</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is the combination that could genuinely challenge September tightening.</span></p> <p><span>A second negative payroll print, unemployment rising towards <strong>4.3–4.4%</strong>, softer wages or further negative revisions would start to look like a trend rather than noise.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Gold higher.</span></strong><span> A meaningful drop in hike odds should pull real yields lower, which is a clean positive for gold that fell 3% last Friday on Warsh’s hawkish remarks.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USD/JPY lower</span></strong><span> should also work, but the pair has more moving parts from BOJ expectations and intervention risk.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>What confirms the move:</span></strong><span> falling 2-year yields, lower real yields and a weaker dollar.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><span></span><strong ><span>Bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Payrolls will still matter for FX, but the interpretation has changed.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Strong jobs:</span></strong><span> dollar firmer, but September is not fully settled.<br /> <strong>50–60k with stable unemployment:</strong> probably little change.<br /> <strong>Broad labour deterioration:</strong> the clearest challenge to a September hike.</span></p> <p><span>For positioning, AUD/USD or EUR/USD work better on a strong report, while gold is the cleaner expression of a genuinely weak one.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Renewed Iran strikes lift crude while the US 10-year tops 4.75% - 01 September 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Stocks fall as higher oil prices and rising global bond yields weigh on markets</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European stocks fell as oil and yields rose, Asian markets weakened, with Shein sliding on its Hong Kong debut.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities snapped back hard while the coins themselves barely moved overnight</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude rises on supply risks; gold steadies after two-session retreat; agriculture hits fresh multi-year high</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US 10-year yield clears 4.75% for first time in 19 months. The 10-year German Bund yield hits 15-year high. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield hit a 30-year high.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD volatility muted, JPY and CHF weak on rising global bond yields.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US and Iran resumed hostilities.</strong> US forces struck Iranian launchers and President Trump threatened <strong>Kharg Island</strong>, while Iran retaliated against the UAE and Jordan. Crude still transits the <strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong> despite a supertanker fire caused by naval mines, and Russian strikes on refineries appear to be tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins.</li> <li><strong>Washington leaned on the Bank of Japan.</strong> US Treasury Secretary <strong>Bessent</strong> reportedly told Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama at the G20 in North Carolina that Japan's next move should be a <strong>rate hike</strong>, adding that he expects a stronger yen once the central bank and the government act.</li> <li><strong>European inflation firmed while US survey data improved.</strong> <strong>German inflation rose to 2.9%</strong> in August, a four-month high just under the 3.0% consensus, with energy inflation at 10.5% and core steady at 2.4%. UK shop price inflation climbed to <strong>1.5%</strong> from 0.9%, the highest since February 2024. The <strong>Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing index jumped to 11.6</strong> from 1.3, its best since January 2025.</li> <li><strong>The week's calendar starts today.</strong> <strong>US ISM manufacturing</strong> is expected at 55.2 against 55.6 previously, alongside JOLTS job openings and construction spending. <strong>August payrolls land on Friday 4 September</strong>, into a market now pricing a September Fed hike.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Aug. Nationwide House Prices</li> <li>0900 – Eurozone Flash Aug. CPI</li> <li>1345 – US Aug. ISM Manufacturing</li> <li>1400 – US July Construction Spending</li> <li>1400 – US July JOLTS Job Openings</li> <li>0130 – Australia Q2 GDP</li> <li>0200 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second straight decline, while the Dow dropped 0.7% to 53,186 and the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured most sectors as renewed US-Iran tensions revived inflation concerns. Amazon fell 2.5% after the Federal Trade Commission sued over alleged ad-pricing practices, while Edison International plunged 23.1% after California wildfire legislation disappointed utilities. Nvidia gained 1.5% after committing $3.5 billion to MediaTek. Investors now turn to this week’s labour data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 fell 0.6% to 651, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.0% to 6,420 and Germany’s DAX lost 1.2% to 26,258 as higher oil prices and bond yields weighed on risk appetite. London was closed for the Summer Bank Holiday, leaving trading volumes unusually light. ASML fell 2.9% as rate-sensitive technology weakened, while Siemens Energy dropped 5.0%. Energy names moved the other way as Brent traded above $90, with Eni up 2.3% and TotalEnergies gaining 1.2%. Investors now watch euro-area inflation data as markets weigh the risk of another European Central Bank rate increase.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities traded lower on Tuesday as oil above $90 and rising global bond yields revived inflation concerns. Around midday, Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.0%, South Korea’s Kospi hovered near flat after an early drop, and China’s CSI 300 was little changed. MediaTek surged 9.9% to its daily limit after Nvidia’s $3.5 billion investment deepened their AI-chip partnership, while Shein fell about 8.0% on its Hong Kong debut after raising $1.7 billion at a roughly $26.5 billion valuation. The weak debut highlighted investor caution toward consumer growth stories as AI and semiconductor names continue to attract stronger demand.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Listed crypto rebounded sharply from Friday's slide. <strong>Circle led at 9.65%</strong>, with BitMine 6.39% higher, Coinbase 5.31%, IREN 4.70% and Strategy 4.42%, while the spot bitcoin and ether funds each added close to 2%. <strong>Deribit’s DVOL eased to 37.41</strong>, which in our view leaves implied volatility near the lower end of its recent range.</li> <li>On the structural side, the <strong>US Crypto Clarity Act fell short of the 60 votes needed</strong> before the August recess, pushing the earliest new vote to mid-September. Thailand's regulator is consulting on draft spot bitcoin and ether fund rules until 20 September.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Gold and silver remain challenged by another rise in global bond yields to their highest in almost two decades, as rising oil and food prices stoke inflation concerns that could force central banks to raise rates, increasing the funding cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. These headwinds are being partly offset by investors seeking protection in hard assets amid concerns over elevated and rising government debt levels, and the increased cost of servicing this debt. Gold has so far retraced only 38.2% of its August rally, which in technical terms is considered a relatively shallow correction within an established uptrend. For that picture to change, prices would need to break below a band of support in the USD 4,200–4,240 area. Conversely, a move back above the 200-day moving average could attract renewed demand on the view that the latest correction has run its course.</li> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded back above USD 91 after US forces struck an island in the Strait, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on the UAE and Jordan.</li> <li><strong>European energy:</strong> European diesel prices rose to USD 181 per barrel, while natural gas climbed to EUR 70.6/MWh, equivalent to around USD 24/MMBtu and more than eight times the US price. The widening energy cost gap highlights Europe’s dependence on imports and its vulnerability to supply disruptions, given limited local production and limited refinery capacity.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> The BCOM Agriculture Total Return Index ended August at a 14-year high after surging 12.4% during the month. Strong gains across grains and soft commodities, led by sugar, wheat and corn, more than offset a monthly decline in livestock after President Trump moved to allow increased imports of foreign beef in an effort to curb elevated domestic prices.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US Treasury yield curve continued to lift, this time in a bear-steepening move</strong> as long-dated Treasury yields rose faster than yields at the front of the curve, as the market remains unsure how aggressively to price in Fed policy tightening after Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech on Friday. The benchmark 2-year yield rose back to Friday’s highs near 4.36% Monday, just a basis point shy of the 4.37% high from July, which is the highest level since February 2025. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.75% for the first time this year and since January 2025, trading at 4.78% early Tuesday.</li> <li><strong>Global bond yields all rose on Monday, many to multi-year highs.</strong> The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose more than four basis points to above 3.32%, a 15-year high. Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB yield lifted more than four basis points to trade above 3.00% for the first time in over 30 years.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar traded sideways to slightly lower Monday</strong> even as US Treasury yields continued to rise in the wake of Friday’s hawkish speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. <strong>EURUSD</strong> rose as high as 1.1625 early Tuesday before drifting back toward 1.1600, while <strong>USDJPY</strong> rose back above 159.80 after lows near 159.50 on Tuesday.</li> <li><strong>The Swiss franc dipped to an almost two-week low versus the euro</strong>, as EURCHF pulled toward 0.9400 early Tuesday, with the cycle and 12-month high from early August at 0.9411, as global bond yields rose, encouraging carry traders funding in francs.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Higher oil = higher energy? It’s not that simple</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Energy is becoming more relevant in portfolios again.</span></strong><span> Middle East disruption has revived the role of energy as a geopolitical and inflation hedge, while Venezuela shows how the global supply map can also evolve.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Energy is not one trade.</span></strong><span> Oil producers, refiners, pipelines, LNG, power generators and grid companies sit at different points of the value chain and respond to very different drivers.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The longer-term opportunity is broadening beyond traditional hydrocarbons.</span></strong><span> EVs challenge road-fuel demand, but AI, electrification, LNG, nuclear and grid investment are creating another energy investment cycle.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Why energy matters again</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Energy is back on investors’ radar for two very different reasons.</span></p> <p><span>The first is <strong>geopolitics</strong>. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have brought energy security and inflation risks back into portfolio discussions. Supply shocks can push oil higher even when underlying global demand is mediocre.</span></p> <p><span>But there is another side to that story. Venezuela is reopening to more foreign investment and could gradually increase production. It will not replace disrupted Middle Eastern barrels overnight — infrastructure, heavy crude and execution remain constraints — but it shows how higher prices and changing geopolitics can eventually bring new supply back to market.</span></p> <p><span>The second force is <strong>structural</strong>. The world is consuming energy differently.</span></p> <p><span>EVs are reducing demand for petrol and diesel, but they also increase electricity consumption. AI data centres, manufacturing and cooling are adding another layer of power demand just as electricity grids in many economies are already struggling to keep up.</span></p> <p><span>This creates an unusual backdrop: <strong>the long-term outlook for oil demand is becoming less certain at exactly the same time that investment needs across the broader energy system are rising.</strong></span></p> <p><span>For investors, the important question is therefore not simply whether oil goes up or down. It is <strong>where scarcity is developing across the energy value chain.</strong></span></p> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The energy value chain: what are you actually investing in?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>A $10 move in crude does not affect every energy company in the same way. Understanding where a company sits in the value chain is critical.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Oil and gas producers: owning the commodity</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Upstream companies</span></strong><span> explore for and produce oil and natural gas. ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum are examples.</span></p> <p><span>They provide some of the most direct equity sensitivity to commodity prices. Once production costs are covered, higher prices can translate into disproportionately stronger cash flows.</span></p> <p><span>The main drivers are <strong>oil and gas prices, production costs, reserve quality and capital discipline</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Integrated majors: diversifying across the chain</span></strong></h3> <p><span>ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies combine upstream production with refining, LNG, chemicals and trading.</span></p> <p><span>That diversification generally makes earnings less sensitive to a single commodity than pure producers and can provide greater cash-flow resilience across different market environments.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Oilfield services: the capex trade</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes supply drilling technology, equipment and services to producers.</span></p> <p><span>Their key driver is not today's oil price but <strong>producer capital expenditure</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>A temporary geopolitical spike may change very little. But if prices remain high enough for long enough to encourage new fields and additional drilling, oilfield services can become a major second-order beneficiary.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Midstream and LNG: moving and storing energy</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Williams, Kinder Morgan and Enbridge own pipelines, processing plants and storage infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>Their revenues tend to depend more on <strong>volumes and long-term contracts</strong> than on the daily commodity price, giving them more infrastructure- and income-like characteristics.</span></p> <p><span>LNG extends this chain. Liquefying natural gas allows it to be shipped globally, linking regional gas markets and making LNG infrastructure increasingly important for energy security.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Refiners: owning the margin, not the barrel</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 buy crude and convert it into petrol, diesel and jet fuel.</span></p> <p><span>Their main driver is the <strong>refining margin</strong> — the difference between crude input costs and the price of finished products.</span></p> <p><span>That means higher oil prices are not automatically positive. A crude shortage can raise input costs, while shortages of diesel or jet fuel can widen refining margins significantly.</span></p> <p><span>A crude shortage and a refined-product shortage are therefore different investment calls.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Power generators and utilities: producing electricity</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Electricity creates a second energy value chain.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Regulated utilities</span></strong><span> such as Duke Energy, Southern Company and American Electric Power invest in generation and networks and typically earn regulated returns on those assets.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Merchant power producers</span></strong><span> such as Constellation Energy and Vistra have greater exposure to wholesale electricity and capacity prices. Existing nuclear and gas plants can become particularly valuable when electricity supply is constrained.</span></p> <p><span>Renewables sit within this generation mix too. Rising power demand does not necessarily require one source of generation to eliminate the others.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Grids and electrical equipment: delivering power</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Generation is only useful if electricity can reach consumers.</span></p> <p><span>Transmission lines, transformers, substations, switchgear and distribution networks are therefore becoming critical infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>Companies such as <strong>GE Vernova, Eaton, Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy</strong> supply the equipment, while companies such as <strong>Quanta Services</strong> help build and maintain the networks.</span></p> <p><span>This is an important structural feature of the theme because it is relatively agnostic about the ultimate generation mix.</span></p> <p><span>Gas, nuclear and renewables all require substantial grid investment, while data centres add another source of demand for that infrastructure.</span></p> <p><strong><span><hr /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>How investors can position: four energy scenarios</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Rather than treating energy as a single sector allocation, investors can match exposure to the macro environment they expect.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Scenario</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>What is driving it?</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Areas to consider</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>1. Geopolitical supply shock</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Middle East disruption, sanctions or shipping constraints keep oil scarce</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Upstream producers and integrated majors</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>2. High prices trigger a capex cycle</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Oil and gas remain expensive long enough to encourage new investment</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Producers initially; then oilfield services, pipelines and LNG infrastructure</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>3. Supply expands while oil demand softens</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Venezuela/non-OPEC supply rises as EVs and slower demand challenge oil</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Reduce high-beta upstream; favour contracted infrastructure and more diversified energy exposure</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>4. Electricity becomes the structural growth trade</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>AI, data centres, EVs and grid constraints drive sustained power investment</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Power generators, nuclear, utilities, electrical equipment and grid construction</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Scenario 1: Geopolitics remains the dominant driver</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is closest to the current Middle East environment.</span></p> <p><span>If physical supply remains disrupted, <strong>upstream producers provide the clearest oil-price sensitivity</strong>, while integrated majors offer a more diversified way of expressing the same view.</span></p> <p><span>But investors should not assume all energy companies benefit equally. Pipelines are primarily volume-driven, oilfield services need a sustained spending response, and refiners depend on product margins rather than simply higher crude.</span></p> <p><span>The shorter and sharper the shock, the more important this distinction becomes.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Scenario 2: High energy prices become a capex story</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The opportunity changes if high oil and gas prices persist.</span></p> <p><span>Initially, producers capture the higher commodity price. But over time, stronger cash flows and greater confidence in future prices can encourage drilling, field development and infrastructure spending.</span></p> <p><span>That broadens the opportunity towards <strong>oilfield services, pipelines and LNG infrastructure</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>This is when energy moves from being simply a commodity-price trade to becoming an <strong>investment-cycle trade</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Venezuela illustrates this dynamic too. Bringing more production back online requires investment in fields, infrastructure and equipment even if those additional barrels eventually put downward pressure on global oil prices.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Scenario 3: More supply meets weaker oil-demand growth</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is the key counterweight to the bullish oil story.</span></p> <p><span>On the supply side, Venezuela and other non-OPEC producers can gradually add production. On the demand side, EV adoption, efficiency gains and potentially softer global growth can constrain oil consumption.</span></p> <p><span>If additional supply arrives at the same time that demand growth disappoints, the greatest pressure is likely to fall on <strong>higher-cost and higher-beta upstream producers</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That does not make the broader energy theme unattractive. It instead argues for shifting exposure towards businesses where earnings depend less on the spot oil price — including <strong>integrated majors, contracted pipelines and parts of the power infrastructure value chain</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Venezuela captures the nuance well: <strong>more Venezuelan production can be bearish for the commodity while still creating opportunities in the capital spending needed to bring those barrels to market.</strong></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Scenario 4: Electricity becomes the structural growth trade</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is the scenario we think deserves increasing attention over a multi-year horizon.</span></p> <p><span>Electricity demand is entering a stronger growth phase as AI data centres, EVs, manufacturing and cooling requirements increase consumption. At the same time, generation and grid capacity cannot be expanded overnight.</span></p> <p><span>The opportunity therefore runs across several parts of the value chain:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Power generators</span></strong><span> where electricity and capacity are scarce;</span></li> <li><strong><span>nuclear generation</span></strong><span> as demand grows for reliable baseload power;</span></li> <li><strong><span>regulated utilities</span></strong><span> investing in generation and transmission;</span></li> <li><strong><span>electrical-equipment suppliers</span></strong><span> providing transformers, turbines and switchgear;</span></li> <li><strong><span>grid construction and engineering</span></strong><span> as connection bottlenecks intensify.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Importantly, much of this opportunity does not sit inside traditional Energy indices. It is spread across Utilities and Industrials.</span></p> <p><span>That means investors relying only on conventional oil-heavy energy ETFs may be underexposed to what could become the more durable part of the energy investment cycle.</span></p> <p><strong><span><hr /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Our view: diversify the energy allocation beyond oil</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Our preference is <strong>not to make one large directional call on crude</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Near-term geopolitical risks still justify exposure to traditional energy. Oil producers and integrated majors can provide useful sensitivity to supply shocks and inflation, particularly while Middle East risks remain elevated.</span></p> <p><span>But we would be cautious about extrapolating today's high oil prices indefinitely. Higher prices encourage additional supply, Venezuela is gradually re-entering the investment landscape, and EV adoption is becoming a more meaningful constraint on long-term road-fuel demand.</span></p> <p><span>For longer-term allocations, we see a stronger case for <strong>broadening energy exposure towards the infrastructure required to meet rising electricity demand</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That suggests three portfolio actions:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Keep some traditional energy exposure</span></strong><span> for geopolitical and inflation sensitivity, with integrated majors offering broader exposure than pure commodity beta.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Use oilfield services and midstream selectively</span></strong><span> when there is evidence that high prices are translating into a sustained capex cycle rather than simply a short-lived oil spike.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Build structural exposure to power and grid infrastructure</span></strong><span> through power generation, nuclear, regulated utilities, electrical equipment and grid investment.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Our bias is therefore to treat <strong>traditional oil and gas as an important tactical and diversification allocation</strong>, while viewing <strong>power generation and infrastructure as the stronger multi-year structural opportunity</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That does not mean oil disappears from portfolios. It means the energy allocation should evolve with the energy system itself.<br /> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Theme Category - Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Heating Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Theme - Oil and gas majors</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 01 September 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 1 Sep, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>US-Iran resume hostilities. Bessent tells BoJ to raise rates. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Dow fell 0.7% as AMZN -2.5% on ad lawsuit; Nvidia to invest $3.5 in MediaTek </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Softening USD extends August decline; Yen stays near 160 despite BOJ speculation </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Crude up on Hormuz fears; gold down on rate repricing </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >US 10y yield hits 19-month high, >4.75% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Renewed US-Iran clashes are heightening energy supply risks as US forces hit Iranian launchers and Trump threatens Kharg Island.</strong> Oil still transits the Strait of Hormuz despite a supertanker fire from naval mines, while Russian refinery strikes are tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly told BOJ Governor Ueda</strong><span > and Finance Minister Katayama at the G20 in North Carolina that Japan’s next move should be a rate hike, adding he expects a stronger yen following BOJ and government action.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>UK shop price inflation rose to 1.5% in August 2026 from 0.9% in July</span></strong><span >, the highest since February 2024, driven by higher energy and input costs. Food prices climbed 2.8% and non-food 0.9%, while UK CPI was 2.9% in July, with the BoE expecting a 3.2% peak later in the year.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Germany’s annual inflation rose to 2.9% in August 2026</span></strong><span >, a four-month high but just below the 3.0% forecast, driven by energy inflation jumping to 10.5%, while food inflation slowed to 0.1% and core inflation held at 2.4%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index rose to 11.6 in August 2026 from 1.3 in July</span></strong><span >, its highest since January 2025, with stronger production, new orders, shipments, and capacity use. Price pressures stayed high, uncertainty remained elevated, but firms turned more optimistic about the next six months.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.5% in August 2026</span></strong><span >, down from 1.0% in July, suggesting easing but still elevated price pressures. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in July, above the RBA’s 2–3% target, and the bank expects a gradual return to target by late 2027 amid ongoing global and domestic risks.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Japan’s retail sales rose 4% year-on-year in July 2026</span></strong><span >, beating the 3% forecast and up from 0.6% in June, led by a 16.2% jump in motor vehicle sales and broad rebounds across most categories. Month-on-month, sales climbed 2.4% after a 3.9% fall in June.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second consecutive decline, as Middle East tensions and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The Dow shed 0.7% to 53,186, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Nine of 11 S&P sectors closed lower, led by communication services and utilities. Amazon was the largest drag on the S&P 500, falling 2.5% after the FTC filed a lawsuit over ad pricing, while Edison International collapsed 23.1%.<strong> Nvidia will invest $3.5b in Taiwan’s MediaTek to deepen collaboration in the custom AI chips space</strong>. In after-hours trade,<strong> GameStop rose 2.85% after preliminary Q2 net sales of $780–800m beat the $757m consensus.</strong><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities slid on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.6% to 651 and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropping 1.0% to 6,420, as rising oil prices on the US-Iran flare-up weighed on sentiment. Trading volumes were approximately 40% below normal with London closed for a bank holiday. ASML fell 2.9%, leading the Stoxx 600 lower. Siemens Energy dropped 5.0% and was the DAX's biggest decliner, with the index falling 1.2% to 26,258. The SMI fell 0.8%, led lower by Holcim (-2.7%) and Roche (-1.6%). Oil majors TotalEnergies, Shell and Eni were among the few gainers.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > The Kospi initially plunged as much as 3.6% before erasing all losses to close up 0.5% at 6,820, aided by pension fund buying of approximately 120 billion won in tech names over a 20-minute window. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both recovered from losses exceeding 4% to close little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended little changed after falling more than 1% at the open. China's CSI 300 rose 0.3%. In Hong Kong, PSBC surged 8.8% after first-half net interest income met estimates. </span><strong >Biren Technology jumped as much as 17% after reporting a narrower first-half loss and a sharp jump in revenue. </strong><span >Asian equity futures are pointing lower on Tuesday, with higher crude above $86 and elevated Treasury yields the key headwinds, though overnight SOX gains should cushion declines in memory-heavy markets. </span><strong >Shein </strong><span >raised HK$13.6b ($1.7b) in its Hong Kong IPO, selling about 280m shares at HK$48.56 and valuing it just over $26b—below H&M’s ~$30b. In gray-market trading, shares fell up to 17% to HK$40.04 by late Monday and it starts trading today.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li>Tuesday: SHEIN (IPO), Nio, Sino Land, Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic<span></span></li> <li>Wednesday: <strong >Broadcom</strong><span >, Snowflake</span><span ></span></li> <li>Thursday: Ciena<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>USD</strong> starts the Asia session softer, extending August’s decline, with the Dollar Index down 0.39% on the month and 0.19% on the final day, as markets weigh higher oil on Iran tensions, hawkish Warsh-driven Fed hike odds, and potential yen-supportive BOJ/MOF action.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >AUD</strong><span > and </span><strong >NZD</strong><span > outperform in the Asia session.</span><strong > AUDUSD</strong><span > is described as flat amid the oil spike and hawkish Fed bets keeping traders cautious. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >EUR </strong><span >gained 0.76% against the </span><strong >USD</strong><span > in August — its second consecutive monthly gain — and rose 0.27% on Aug 31 alone, snapping a three-session losing streak. It sits 3.53% below its 52-week high of 1.2042. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USDJPY </strong><span >is marginally softer at 159.73 despite a strong Japan consumption print, which the yen failed to benefit from. Bessent reportedly held talks with BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama, with reports suggesting Bessent expects Japan to take action to boost the yen and signalling a BOJ rate-hike chance. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USD</strong><span > lost 1.21% vs. </span><strong >CAD</strong><span > in August — its largest two-month decline since January 2026 — and fell 0.37% on Aug 31. </span><span ></span></li> <li>Both<strong > NOK</strong><span > and </span><strong >SEK</strong><span > firmer, consistent with the broader</span><strong > USD</strong><span > softness and elevated oil prices supporting </span><strong >NOK</strong><span >.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>WTI crude </strong>rose 2.8% on Monday to settle near $86 a barrel — its biggest single-session gain in three weeks — after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against the UAE and Jordan. WTI extended gains above $86.30 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. Brent settled near $90 on Monday. The renewed fighting has revived fears of prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the strait.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold </strong><span >steadied around $4,445 an ounce after falling more than 3.5% over the prior two sessions. The metal is caught between safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and headwinds from rising Fed rate-hike expectations, which have boosted real yields and pressured bullion.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li>The <strong>10-year Treasury yield</strong> topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025, driven by rising oil prices amplifying inflation concerns and cementing bets on a September Fed rate hike. The 30-year yield rose to 5.248%, extending a four-day run higher. The long end led the selloff, steepening the yield curve after Friday's sharp flattening post-Warsh.<span></span></li> <li>JPMorgan's rates strategists unwound their 2s10s steepener recommendation at a 7.6bp loss following Warsh's "somewhat more hawkish than expected" Jackson Hole address. The bank had previously flagged that Warsh's speech added to his credibility on the inflation fight, making the steepener untenable in the near term.<span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >JGB futures </strong><span >are expected to fall as elevated oil prices and Bessent's call for BOJ rate hikes weigh on sentiment. The 10-year JGB auction will be closely watched for its read-across to global bond markets. </span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span ></span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span ></span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Restrained USD reaction to Warsh hawkishness</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:05:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Incoming data to take over this week.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>The latest</strong></p> <p><strong>The market was caught off guard by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday. </strong>The reaction function – more in gold and US treasuries than in the stronger US dollar – was to a large degree the US Treasury’s fault. When the Bessent Treasury recently announced the doubling of long-term treasury buybacks on August 19th and the idea was even floated (according to two Treasury officials cited by CNBC’s Steve Liesman) of the Treasury using its large “General Account” to throw its weight into supporting the US treasury market, it felt like US officialdom was circling the wagons around the US treasury market. And with increasing talk in recent years of “fiscal dominance”, in which US fiscal policy priorities far outweigh anything the Fed might consider doing with monetary policy, it was thought that the new Fed chair was brought on board to support the Treasury.</p> <p><strong>Instead, Chair Warsh has consistently made all the “right” orthodox noises on Fed independence, on the need to get ahead of inflation and on the sanctity of the 2% inflation target.</strong> That was the impression at his first presser as Fed Chair back at the June FOMC meeting, and it was the impression on Friday, even if he continues to avoid explicit forward guidance for the September rate hike decision. Warsh said that the Fed has “work to do” if inflation doesn’t retreat and said that financial conditions weren’t holding the economy back, while adjusting short-term interest rates are the Fed’s “predominant tool”. His rhetoric Friday shocked US treasury yields higher, especially at the short end of the curve as more Fed tightening was brought forward. The US 2-year rose more than 10 basis points at one point and the odds of a hike at the September meeting rose above 60%. And yet, we are still talking about a “terminal” Fed policy rate, if they do resume hiking, of only 50 basis points higher than the current rate – it would likely take considerable incoming data evidence on the inflation front to take Fed expectations higher still, assuming the labor market remains in its “low hire, low fire” state. The USD spiked higher, but we only trade back to 1.1600 in EURUSD now versus 1.1640 before the Warsh speech. USDJPY has reset back to levels prevailing just before Warsh spoke – interesting to note there that Japan said it had plowed over JPY 15 trillion (close to USD 100 billion) into defending its currency over the last month, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the BoJ would “do the right thing” in making coming policy decisions.</p> <p><em><strong>Bottom line:</strong> Follow on USD strength from here would likely have to come from incoming data more than the specific implications of this speech. We’ll get a decent amount of that this week (see preview below) but also watch oil prices and next week’s CPI data point as well. The longer end of the US yield curve and whether yields are positively correlated with the US dollar or uncorrelated is also critical. Recently, long US yields and the US dollar have arguably been slightly negatively correlated if there is any relationship at all. Given the timing of the US Treasury’s soft “intervention” - its announcement of buyback increases - with the break of the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield to 19-year highs, it is logical to conclude that the next US Treasury policy measures to support the treasury market will be reached for quickly if, for example, the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield breaks sharply above the recent 4.75% cycle high that was tested multiple times.</em></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: EURUSD<br /> </strong><span >Note how the EURUSD sell-off almost neatly reverses the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement from August 19th. This is a short-term reset of that extension to the upside, not yet a full reversal, which only starts to threaten if the price action continues down through 1.1580 (the previous high), although a punch down through 1.1450-1.1500 would be needed to develop any downside momentum and a retest of the longer-term range lows. The upside path is simpler, as a reversal of this latest sell-off wave would suggest the recent larger bull move off the sub-1.1400 base remains intact. In the big picture, EURUSD has been impossibly mired in the 1.1400-1.1800 range for over fourteen months except for a few spikes. The pair is almost exactly in the very middle of the range of the last many months.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><strong></strong></p> <p><strong><strong><span> <p><strong><span>Looking ahead<br /> </span></strong><span ></span></p> </span></strong><span> <p><span ></span></p> </span></strong><span> <p><span >It’s a busy week ahead for US macro data as we watch whether the market extends its reaction to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. This week we get the usual first-of-month data with the August ISM Manufacturing survey up on Tuesday, which also sees the July JOLTS job opening survey (poor quality and old-ish data, but the market reacts to surprises). On Wednesday we get the August ADP private payrolls change numbers (a typical soft +50k number expected there). On Thursday it’s the ISM Services survey. Finally, Friday sees the August jobs report ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. The market is expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of +50k after -23k in July, +20k in June and +63k in May.</span></p> </span><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>The RBNZ set to continue it hiking cycle Wednesday.<br /> </strong></span><span >The Bank is expected to follow up on its first-of-the-cycle July hike with another hike on Wednesday, with the forward guidance in focus as the market sees at least two hikes over the next three meetings, including this week’s.</span></p> </span><span> <p><span><strong><span>Bank of Canada on Wednesday.<br /> </span></strong></span><span >The Bank of Canada meeting will likely have Governor Tiff Macklem and company sitting on their hands, with little sense of being in a rush to do otherwise. Canada’s core inflation measure, the “trimmed mean” dropped to a more than five-year low in June and July of 1.9% after a persistent slide in the previous months. As well, the US and Canada are engaged in a trade tiff that will hit Canada far harder if the situation escalates.</span></p> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </span></strong></span><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong><span>see a video tutorial</span></strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p><span> <p><span>No surprise to see that the two weakest currencies (SEK, CHF) are Europe’s lowest yielding currencies, with CHF weakest while SEK is also weak from two angles: traditionally it is a pro-cyclical currency and traditionally does poorly when risk sentiment is on the defensive, but it’s more likely that the Riksbank’s low 1.75% policy rate and lack of urgency in moving that rate higher is the largest driver of SEK weakness, notable since Friday as EURSEK burst to a new 12 month high above 11.115. While the US dollar has turned around a bit in momentum terms, there is a lot more wood to chop to suggest it is powering up for a larger strengthening move. Sterling actually traded weaker Monday after BoE Governor Bailey said that the BoE would be happy to wait for a while before deciding on policy moves due to the slackening UK labor market. He also said that AI risks triggering a global economic downturn and risks to global financial stability.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span>AUDNZD is attempting to establish a new uptrend, with the Wednesday RBNZ meeting a key test there. It is far too early to point to new USD developments and the deep blue colors in so many pairs point to the very low volatility (often meeting lack of conviction in market direction) nearly everywhere outside of gold and silver.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Broadcom vs Marvell: the custom-chip boom has an expectations problem</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2">Key takeaways</h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Custom AI chips are becoming a second growth engine </strong>alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell competing for Big Tech designs.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Marvell shows how strong results can disappoint </strong>when investors have already priced in even faster growth.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Broadcom’s Wednesday earnings will test</strong> both the custom-chip boom and investors’ increasingly demanding expectations.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>A company can report record revenue, raise its outlook and tell investors that an important business will more than double next year. Its shares can still fall 10%.</span></p> <p><span>Marvell Technology managed exactly that last week.</span></p> <p><span>The chip designer raised its longer-term revenue expectations as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure accelerated. Yet Marvell closed at 216.62 USD on 28 August, down 10.3%, because investors wanted its new Google custom-chip partnership to generate meaningful revenue sooner.</span></p> <p><span>That reaction offers a useful preview for Broadcom, which reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, 2 September. It also captures one of today’s most important investing lessons: great company plus great results does not automatically equal a great stock return. Expectations sit in the middle.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The chip is getting personal</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Nvidia built the AI boom around the graphics processing unit (GPU), a flexible chip capable of handling many different computing tasks.</span></p> <p><span>But flexibility is not always the cheapest option.</span></p> <p><span>As AI moves from training models towards repeatedly running them for millions of users, known as inference, efficiency matters more. Google, Meta, OpenAI and other large technology companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.</span></p> <p><span>Think of the difference between a Swiss Army knife and a factory machine. Nvidia sells an exceptionally capable Swiss Army knife. Custom silicon is the machine built to perform one job repeatedly and efficiently.</span></p> <p><span>This creates an expanding market for companies such as Broadcom and Marvell. They help customers turn their own chip ideas into products and also supply much of the networking technology connecting thousands of processors inside data centres.</span></p> <p><span>The race is becoming more competitive. Google recently expanded its relationship with Marvell across custom processors, networking and memory technologies. The agreement could eventually generate up to 120 billion USD of orders through fiscal 2033. Importantly, Google appears to be adding Marvell alongside Broadcom rather than simply replacing Broadcom.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.</span></p> <p><span>The important point is not that custom chips replace Nvidia. Big technology companies increasingly use several types of processors. The AI semiconductor market is becoming larger and more specialised at the same time.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Marvell delivered. Expectations moved faster</span></strong></h3> <p><span>That sounds ideal for Marvell.</span></p> <p><span>Quarterly revenue reached 2.74 billion USD, while management lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to around 12 billion USD and fiscal 2028 expectations to around 18 billion USD. Custom-chip revenue is expected to more than double next year.</span></p> <p><span>The problem was timing.</span></p> <p><span>Management indicated that the largest contribution from Google would arrive from fiscal 2029. Investors had already pushed Marvell shares sharply higher this year partly because they expected custom silicon to become a much larger business.</span></p> <p><span>The result was therefore good, but the change in expectations was not good enough.</span></p> <p><span>Compare that with Salesforce and CrowdStrike one day earlier.</span></p> <p><span>Salesforce, which sells software that helps companies manage customers and sales, raised its annual outlook and showed better demand for its AI products. Its shares closed at 252.05 USD, up 22.6%.</span></p> <p><span>CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, reported record net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of new subscription business. Its shares closed at 227.96 USD, up 20.5%.</span></p> <p><span>Why such different reactions? Salesforce and CrowdStrike entered earnings carrying fears that AI could disrupt software. Strong results reduced that fear. Marvell entered earnings carrying enormous optimism. Strong results confirmed much of the existing story rather than improving it.</span></p> <p><span>That is the expectations game in one earnings week.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Broadcom now has to clear its own bar</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Broadcom faces an unusually high hurdle on Wednesday.</span></p> <p><span>Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%. Total revenue guidance stands around 29.4 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>Those numbers would normally look extraordinary. The complication is that extraordinary has become normal for leading AI companies.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.</span></p> <p><span>Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom’s advantage is that it can potentially collect revenue twice. It helps design specialised processors, then sells networking and connectivity products needed to make large clusters of those processors work together.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: a bigger market can still disappoint</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Custom silicon remains tied to a relatively small number of enormous customers. A delayed chip programme, lower infrastructure spending or a customer moving more work to another supplier can shift billions of future revenue.</span></p> <p><span>Competition is also increasing. Marvell’s Google win shows that customers may deliberately use several suppliers. That expands the overall opportunity, but makes market share less predictable.</span></p> <p><span>Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Separate results from expectations.</span></strong><span> Ask what investors appeared to expect before earnings, not simply whether revenue grew.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Follow timelines, not deal headlines.</span></strong><span> A large contract matters differently if revenue arrives next quarter rather than three years later.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch customer diversification.</span></strong><span> More custom-chip customers can strengthen growth, while supplier diversification can increase competitive pressure.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Treat share reactions as information, not verdicts.</span></strong><span> A falling stock can reflect lower expectations rather than worsening business fundamentals.<strong></strong></span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The business reports the numbers. The market grades the expectations</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Broadcom’s earnings on 2 September will therefore test more than one company. They will test whether custom silicon is becoming a durable second pillar of AI infrastructure alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, and how much of that opportunity investors already assume.</span></p> <p><span>Marvell has already shown the strange arithmetic of an optimistic market: revenue can rise, forecasts can rise and the share price can still fall. Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed the reverse when good results removed a major fear.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, that distinction matters. Earnings tell you how the business performed. The share-price reaction tells you how that performance compared with the story investors had already paid for.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Warsh spoils the gold party. Busy week ahead.</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:27:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Fed Chair Warsh talks up Fed's need to fight inflation.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/warsh-spoils-the-gold-party-busy-week-ahead/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.<br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNPCzV_1vFQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>Michael Every was recently on Thoughtful Money recently</span></a> and I found the discussion of stablecoins the most enlightening, a bit more into the specifics and the assumptions needed to make this work than I have heard previously from Every and others.</li> <li>Katie Martin wonders, as we also do on the podcast, <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ba4b940e-4a44-473b-9846-eaba9434b65f?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">when the "new age of financial repression" is coming</a></span>.</li> <li><span><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/09/07/mark-zuckerbergs-social-reckoning" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mark Zuckerberg's Social Reckoning</a></span>. (The New Yorker)</li> <li>A WSJ op-ed <span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-food-crisis-may-be-coming-to-the-u-s-01026585" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">frets the risk of a US food crisis</a></span>, in part on fertilizer supply chains that run through the Middle East and China </li> <li>On X, Paulo Macro points out <span><a href="https://x.com/PauloMacro/status/2094155340480672027" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a string of recent magazine covers that should warm the hearts of AI bubble bears</a></span>.</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Agriculture buying accelerates as funds rush into grains and softs</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 25 August 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 25<span data-start="186" data-end="201"> August 2026. </span></span></li> <li><span><strong>Dollar longs cut after the Treasury buyback</strong>: Speculators reduced the aggregate dollar long by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, led by short covering in the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar, while yen selling continued amid unfavourable US-Japan rate differentials. </span></li> <li><span><strong data-start="2" data-end="54">Agriculture length surges at a record pace:</strong> The managed-money net long across ten major grains and softs jumped at the fastest pace on record, with corn, sugar, cotton and Kansas wheat reaching multi-year positioning highs, while CBOT wheat remained net short ahead of an 11% price surge as worsening Black Sea supply risks forced shorts to retreat.</span></li> <li><strong >Metals and energy positioning diverge</strong><span >: Gold futures buying remained relatively restrained despite a 6.2% rally, while copper length eased from elevated levels. In energy, funds cut Brent longs by 11% as increased Hormuz flows reduced the Middle East risk premium.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Forex</strong></h3> <p> </p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The COT update on forex covering the week to 25 August captured the aftermath of the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement, which initially weakened the dollar before some buying returned later in the reporting period. Overall, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ended the reporting week down around 0.8%, before fully reversing the buyback-driven decline by last Friday following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.</span></p> <p><span>Against this backdrop, the initial reaction was unsurprisingly one of dollar-long liquidation, with speculators turning net buyers of most of the eight IMM currency futures tracked in this report. The main exception was the Japanese yen. Overall, the aggregate speculative dollar long was cut by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, extending a sharp reversal from the record long of around USD 50 billion reached just one month earlier. </span></p> <p><span>At the individual currency level, the euro short was cut by 38% after speculators bought a net 22.7k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.3 billion, leaving the net short at USD 5.3 billion. The Canadian dollar saw its net short reduced by 23%, or USD 2.7 billion, following net buying of 36.6k contracts. The Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar also attracted sizeable short covering, each seeing their respective dollar-equivalent shorts reduced by around USD 1.1 billion.</span></p> <p><span>Sterling and the Australian dollar also saw modest net buying, although both remained firmly net short, while the Mexican peso continued to stand out as the only currency among the eight carrying a speculative net long against the dollar. Its relative strength continues to be supported by favourable rate differentials - the same dynamic, but in reverse, that continues to weigh on the Japanese yen.</span></p> <p><span>Going against the broader trend, the yen saw net selling for a second consecutive week, with speculators selling 10.4k contracts and lifting the net short to 63.3k contracts, or around USD 5 billion. The divergence highlights the continued importance of relative rate expectations, with the still-wide US-Japan yield differential limiting the yen's ability to benefit from the broader bout of dollar weakness.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 data-section-id="whjwy9" data-start="0" data-end="76">Commodities</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>In commodities, the latest reporting week to 25 August covered the period following the surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar weakness provided broader support across the commodity complex. It was also a week in which the geopolitical temperature rose in and around the Black Sea region while a temporary easing in the Middle East contributed to an increase in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a partial unwinding of the oil market's geopolitical risk premium.</span></p> <p><span>During the week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.1%, with strong gains across agriculture excluding livestock and, not least, precious metals, while industrial metals also advanced. These gains more than offset losses across the energy sector. Speculators responded by cutting length in Brent crude, soybean oil and livestock, while most other markets saw net buying. Once again, the strongest appetite was concentrated in grains and softs, a sector that in a matter of weeks has moved from being relatively under-owned to carrying an increasingly sizeable speculative long.<br /> </span></p> <p><span>Elsewhere, the positioning response to strong gains across the investment metals was relatively muted. Gold rose 6.2% during the reporting week, while the managed-money net long increased by just 4% to 151.3k contracts, leaving it close to its one-year high. Silver and platinum saw larger percentage increases albeit from considerably smaller starting positions. This suggests that the strong price response to the Treasury announcement was not accompanied by an equally aggressive build-up in futures positioning, potentially pointing to demand coming from other sources as well.</span></p> <p><span>On Friday, gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into today's session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus on the dollar and bond yields considering the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.</span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong>Agriculture</strong>: Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in this report, the combined managed-money net long has now in the past two weeks surged by 546k contracts, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, with the combined position having been close to neutral only a few months ago.</span></p> <p><span>The buying was led by corn, where funds added a net 126k contracts to lift the net long to 376.5k contracts, the highest in more than four years. Soybeans also attracted sizeable demand, with the net long rising by 46.6k contracts to 198.3k, while sugar saw another 55.7k contracts of net buying, lifting the position to a fresh two-year high of 207.1k contracts. Cotton also reached a two-year high at 95.8k contracts, while the Kansas City wheat net long rose to 44.1k contracts, a four-year high.</span></p> <p><span>One notable exception was CBOT wheat, where speculators, despite some short covering, still held a net short position of more than 100,000 contracts by last Tuesday. This helps explain why prices jumped more than 11% in the days that followed, as short sellers retreated on news that Russian exports had slowed sharply and disruptions to Ukrainian shipments increasingly threatened not only current exports but also future planting. The fundamental backdrop has therefore become considerably less comfortable for remaining wheat shorts.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Grains and softs combined net long - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Key agriculture commodity positioning - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Major energy and metal futures positioning - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)</a> and the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ice.com/report/122" target="_blank">ICE Exchange Europe</a> for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span><strong>Commodities:</strong> Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, <strong>Managed Money</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Financials:</strong> Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, <strong>Leveraged Funds</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Forex:</strong> A broader breakdown between commercial and <strong>non-commercial</strong> participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators</span></p> <p> <p>The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>They are more likely to have <strong>tight stops</strong> and <strong>no underlying physical exposure</strong> that needs to be hedged</li> <li>This makes them <strong>more reactive to changes</strong> in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>Their positioning provides insight into <strong>major trends</strong>, while extreme positions can also help identify when a <strong>reversal or correction</strong> may be looming</li> </ul> <p>It is worth noting that this group tends to <strong>anticipate, accelerate and amplify</strong> price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a <strong>trough</strong> in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>28 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-barrels-to-bushels-and-bullion-as-scarcity-broadens-the-commodity-rally-28082026" data-id="D3C92EE6E6D84E83A6EB28F8E55F7DD4" data-type="Article">From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AUD/NZD in Focus as Australia’s GDP Meets the RBNZ</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span>Key points</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Australia Q2 GDP lands Wednesday, 2 September at 9:30am SGT</span></strong><span>, just 30 minutes before the <strong>RBNZ decision at 10am SGT</strong>. </span></li> <li><span>Australia enters the data with a more hawkish RBA backdrop: July inflation surprised higher, household spending remains strong and the RBA revealed it debated a hike in August. Markets have consequently rebuilt expectations for further tightening. </span></li> <li><span>In New Zealand, a <strong>25bp hike to 2.75% is widely expected</strong>, so the NZD reaction should depend much more on the RBNZ's <strong>OCR projections and guidance on whether more tightening is coming</strong>. </span></li> <li><span>That makes <strong>AUD/NZD particularly interesting:</strong> Wednesday is effectively a contest over <strong>which central bank has the more persistent tightening cycle</strong>.</span><strong ><span></span></strong></li> </ul> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span>Australia: GDP now matters more after hot inflation</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, but its minutes revealed that several board members saw a case for another hike. Since then, July CPI surprised on the upside, with headline inflation at 3.5% y/y and trimmed-mean inflation at 3.6%. </span></p> <p><span>The growth picture, however, is less clean.</span></p> <p><span>Household spending rose 1.1% in July and 7% y/y, suggesting the consumer remains resilient, while Q2 business investment dropped 3.6%, partly reversing the earlier data-centre investment surge. </span></p> That makes GDP an important test of whether Australia's inflation problem is being accompanied by enough demand strength to justify another hike.<br /> <br /> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>New Zealand: A hike may not be enough for NZD</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The RBNZ's OCR is currently 2.50%, with the next full Monetary Policy Statement due Wednesday. With markets expecting a move to 2.75%, simply delivering the hike may generate little sustained NZD upside.</span></p> <p><span>Instead traders should ask: Does the RBNZ signal another hike is likely?</span></p> <p><span>If the projected OCR track rises and policymakers remain uncomfortable with inflation, markets could start pricing December tightening more aggressively.</span></p> <p><span>But a 25bp hike accompanied by softer growth forecasts and an emphasis on future data dependence could easily become a <em>dovish hike</em> — and a sell-the-fact event for NZD.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Scenario 1: Strong Australia GDP + dovish RBNZ hike</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Clearest AUD/NZD upside</span></strong></p> <p><span>This is probably the cleanest relative-value setup.</span></p> <p><span>Strong Australian growth would reinforce the idea that the RBA may need a <strong>fourth hike this year</strong>, while a cautious RBNZ would suggest New Zealand's tightening cycle is closer to its peak.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AUD/NZD ↑:</span></strong><span> strongest expression of widening policy divergence. </span></li> <li><strong><span>AUD/USD:</span></strong><span> could also benefit, although the hawkish Fed/USD backdrop makes this a less clean trade. </span></li> <li><strong><span>NZD/USD:</span></strong><span> vulnerable if a fully priced RBNZ hike is accompanied by softer guidance. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Scenario 2: Weak Australia GDP + hawkish RBNZ</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Clearest AUD/NZD downside</span></strong></p> <p><span>Weak GDP — particularly weak household demand — would give the RBA more reason to wait despite the inflation overshoot.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, an RBNZ hike accompanied by a higher projected OCR path or a clear December tightening signal would extend New Zealand's hawkish repricing.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AUD/NZD ↓:</span></strong><span> potentially the strongest move of the four scenarios. </span></li> <li><strong><span>NZD/USD ↑:</span></strong><span> possible, but upside may be capped if Fed hike expectations and the broad USD remain firm. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span></span></strong><strong ><span>Scenario 3: Strong Australia GDP + hawkish RBNZ</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Both currencies win — relative trade becomes harder</span></strong></p> <p><span>If Australian activity holds up and the RBNZ also signals more hikes, both central banks would look hawkish.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AUD/NZD may struggle for direction.</span></strong></p> <p><span>Here, the details matter: whichever event produces the larger change in expected terminal rates should ultimately dominate the cross.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AUD/USD / NZD/USD:</span></strong><span> potentially more useful than AUD/NZD, but both remain exposed to the hawkish Fed. </span></li> <li><span>For AUD/NZD, avoid chasing the first move until the market has digested the RBNZ projections. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span></span></strong><strong ><span>Scenario 4: Weak Australia GDP + dovish RBNZ hike</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Both currencies vulnerable</span></strong></p> <p><span>Weak Australian growth would challenge RBA hike expectations, while a dovish RBNZ could trigger a sell-the-fact move in NZD.</span></p> <p><span>The relative cross may therefore become messy.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AUD/USD and NZD/USD ↓:</span></strong><span> the cleaner expression, particularly with the Fed now looking more hawkish. </span></li> <li><strong><span>AUD/NZD:</span></strong><span> direction depends on which central bank sees the larger dovish repricing. </span></li> </ul> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span></span></strong><strong ><span>Bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The interesting trade on Wednesday is not simply AUD versus NZD. It is a contest between two tightening stories at very different stages.</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Australia is asking: does stronger inflation also have enough growth behind it to force the RBA back into hiking?</span></li> <li><span>New Zealand is asking: after an expected September hike, how much tightening is still left?</span></li> </ul> <p><span>That creates the cleanest asymmetry in AUD/NZD:</span></p> <p><span>Strong AU GDP + dovish RBNZ → AUD/NZD higher.<br /> Weak AU GDP + hawkish RBNZ → AUD/NZD lower.</span></p> <p><span>The other two combinations are much less clean — and probably better expressed through AUD/USD or NZD/USD once the initial volatility settles.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Warsh turns hawkish as Hormuz risk returns - 31 August 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A weekend strike near Hormuz collided with a hawkish Fed chair to reset the week</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks slipped on hawkish Fed signals, Europe rebounded, Asia recovered from early losses as rate fears and higher oil hit technology.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Miners and treasury companies were sold hard while the coins themselves barely moved</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude jumps on renewed supply risks as Warsh drives precious metals slump; speculators rush into agriculture at record pace</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US Treasury yield curve bear flattens on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday. Global yields follow US Treasury yields higher.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD stronger on hawkish Warsh speech, USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday</strong> as he declared that inflation is not slowing and that interest rates are the “predominant tool” for the Fed to achieve its mandate, though he continued to criticize the notion of the Fed’s former forward guidance policy or to provide any specific hints on policy tightening. “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision”.</li> <li><strong>US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Bank of Japan will “do the right thing” on policy</strong> and said he expected to meet with Bank of Japan governor Ueda on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit, which starts today in North Carolina. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Friday that its intervention to support the JPY had deployed over JPY 15 trillion (USD 96 billion).</li> <li><strong>A weekend military exchange reset the geopolitical backdrop.</strong> The <strong>US struck Iranian rocket launchers</strong> reportedly preparing to mine the <strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong> on Sunday, its first such attack in over a month, alongside increased sanctions pressure. Roughly <strong>6 to 8 million barrels of crude</strong> still transit the strait each day. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington are not impossible.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1200 – Germany Flash Aug. CPI</li> <li>UK Summer Bank Holiday</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares. Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations. PayPal tumbled 12.7% after Stripe and Advent International abandoned takeover talks, while Amazon gained 4.0% after an analyst raised its price target on improving AI-driven retail efficiency. Markets now turn to US jobs data and the September Fed decision.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rebounded 1% on Friday as French stocks recovered and autos led gains. BMW jumped 4.5% and Forvia rose 5.1% after Citi placed both on positive catalyst watches, pointing to depressed expectations and potential upside from upcoming company and policy events. EssilorLuxottica gained 2.4% after announcing a share buyback, while French banks also recovered from Thursday’s selloff. European investors now face the same uncomfortable mix of firmer oil prices and higher-rate risk.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities recovered sharply from steep opening losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% lower after earlier falling more than 2% and 3%, respectively. Markets initially sold off as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks and higher oil prices raised concerns over rates and inflation, but buyers quickly returned to technology shares. Chinese brokerages remained in focus after listed securities firms reported combined first-half profits up more than 40%, while BYD said overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half of 2026.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. <strong>IREN fell 12.53%</strong> after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed. Marathon lost 10.11%, CleanSpark 9.96%, Cipher 9.54% and Riot 9.05%, with <strong>Strategy down 7.34%</strong> and Coinbase 6.33%.</li> <li>US spot bitcoin funds drew about <strong>USD 924 million</strong> over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crude jumped, with Brent trading back above USD 90</strong>, as fresh fighting flared in the Middle East and the US signalled it was likely to unveil new secondary sanctions on Iran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, while Jordan’s army intercepted eight missiles after Tehran’s military claimed attacks against American forces in the kingdom. These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.</li> <li><strong>Gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower</strong> following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into Monday’s session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus remains on the dollar and bond yields, while the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.</li> <li><strong>The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length.</strong> In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US Treasury yield curve bear flattened Friday in reaction to the more hawkish than expected speech from Fed Chair Warsh.</strong> Yields eased slightly in early Monday trading in Asia, but the benchmark two-year yield is still some seven basis points higher than it was before Warsh’s speech, trading near the top of the range since late 2024 as the odds of a September 16 FOMC rate hike rose above 50%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is some three basis points higher than before the speech at 4.71% as the Treasury market eyes the key 4.75% area that has marked the top of the range on multiple occasions over the last month.</li> <li><strong>Global bond yields rose in line with US Treasuries late Friday and early Monday in the wake of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech.</strong> The benchmark German two-year yield lifted four basis points to close the week just below 2.91%, the highest level for the year and since mid-2024. Japan’s benchmark two-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 1.73%, a new modern high since the mid-1990s.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar rose sharply on Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. USDJPY</strong> traded through 160.00 Friday and briefly in early Monday trading for the first time since the official intervention in late July and at the beginning of August. By early European hours, <strong>USDJPY</strong> returned to the 159.80 area, only slightly above the levels trading before Warsh’s speech. The reaction in <strong>EURUSD</strong> was stickier, as it remained below 1.1600 by early Monday in Europe, solidly below the 1.1640–1.1650 area trading before Warsh’s speech.</li> <li><strong>The Swedish krona stands out among the weaker G10 currencies</strong> as the Riksbank has yet to hike its policy rate for the cycle and is seen as likely slow to do so. EURSEK rose from 11.09 to nearly 11.15 in the wake of US Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday, posting its highest level in almost exactly a year.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 31 August, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 02:22:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US strikes Iranian rocket launchers</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Nvidia fell 4.6% after hawkish Warsh while Amazon outperforms with +3.4% </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Hawkish Warsh drove USD gains on Friday; NOK outperforms, SEK lags.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>2y Treasury yield +12 bps to 4.35%, second-biggest one-day rise this year</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Gold falls 2% (biggest since July); Brent rallies near $90</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p> <span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The US struck Iranian the rocket launchers which were preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong></span><span>, its first such attack in over a month, while increasing sanctions pressure. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington “aren’t impossible,” and 6–8 million barrels of crude still pass through the strait daily.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in July 2026</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations for a 0.6% decline and marking a fourth straight increase. Output was driven by machinery, chemicals, and electronic parts, partly offset by weaker transport equipment, metals, and plastics. Year-on-year, production grew 4.1%, down from 4.9% in June.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said underlying inflation is not slowing and reaffirmed the PCE index as the main target.</span></strong></span><span> The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting in July 2026, with three members favoring a hike. Warsh also played down the policy rate as the key inflation tool, preferring balance sheet reduction and criticizing forward guidance.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in July 2026</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations for a 0.6% drop and marking a fourth straight gain. Year-on-year, output grew 4.1%, down from 4.9% in June.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Canada’s GDP grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years on a rebound in auto production,</span></strong></span><span> helping offset trade risks, but Trump’s threat to lift auto tariffs to 50% from January 1, 2027, remains a major headwind.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US year-ahead inflation expectations (University of Michigan) were revised down to 4% in August 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the third monthly decline and lowest since March, while five-year expectations stayed at 3.3% for a third month.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>BLS revisions showed the US added 79,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2026 (−0.1%).</span></strong></span><span> The biggest downward changes were in retail, private education and health, and wholesale trade, partly offset by gains in transportation and warehousing, government, information, finance, and construction.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Germany’s unemployment rate stayed at 6.4% in August 2026,</span></strong></span><span> the highest since 2020. Seasonally adjusted joblessness rose by 4,000 to 2.996 million, while the unadjusted total remained above 3 million at 3.061 million amid a sluggish economy.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> On Friday 28 August, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,711.76, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% to 26,402.42, and the Dow slipped less than 0.1% to 53,559.99, as Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks triggered a tech-led selloff.<strong> Nvidia fell 4.6% and PayPal tumbled 12.7%</strong> — the largest single-stock decline in the S&P 500 after Stripe and Advent International abandoned their $53b bid. Marvell also retreated after results failed to clear a high bar. <strong>Amazon (+3.4%), Microsoft (+2.4%) and Apple (+1.6%) outperformed.</strong> S&P 500 futures are down a further 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.5% at the Asia open this morning.</li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> European equities closed higher on Friday 28 August, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.5% to 655.16, the DAX gaining 0.8% to a record close of 26,569.99, the FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 10,824.26, and the CAC 40 rebounding 1% after its worst session of the prior day. Auto stocks led gains: BMW surged 4.5% and Forvia rose more than 4% after both were added to Citi's positive catalyst watch list. BioNTech tumbled after scrapping a cancer vaccine trial. The Stoxx 600 was on pace for a fifth consecutive monthly gain.</li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian equities are sharply lower this morning, weighed down by Warsh's hawkish tone and surging oil prices following the US–Iran military exchange. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 1% to 275.30. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.3% to 64,860.54, with technology and semiconductor names leading declines. South Korea's Kospi fell over 3% at the open to around 6,582, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both weaker in pre-market trading — the Kospi is seen as a key barometer for AI investment sentiment. China brokerages posted record first-half profits on a trading boom, with combined net profit up over 40% year-on-year among listed securities firms. BYD reported that overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in 1H 2026, with international sales rising 34% to 181.3 billion yuan. No specific STI or Hang Seng index levels were available at time of writing.</li> </ul> <p><strong ><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Tuesday: Nio, Sino Land, Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: <strong>Broadcom</strong>, Snowflake</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Ciena</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Friday remarks—signalling a possible September hike and a firm commitment to returning inflation to 2%. Today's modest <strong>USD</strong> pullback follows that Friday surge — the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% on Friday and was up 0.6% on the week.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> is holding above 160 after breaking its 100-day moving average, leaving the July 31 high near 160.88 as the next technical target despite an estimated $98.7bn of joint Japan–US intervention that only briefly supported the yen.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> is slightly softer after Friday’s 0.4% drop, with the pair extending losses this morning and several major houses (SB1 Markets, Banco Santander, Danske Bank) warning the two</span>‑<span>month rally is peaking and projecting a move back toward 0.70 by year-end, even though AUD remains ~7.4% higher vs. USD year-to-date.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>NZDUSD</span></strong></span><span> is marginally firmer on expectations of a 25bp RBNZ hike to 2.75% this week.</span></li> <li><span>In the broader G10 space <strong>NOK</strong> is the top YTD performer (+7.6% vs. USD), <strong>SEK</strong> the worst (-4.2%).</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> is trading just below $90 per barrel and WTI near $85, after the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This marks a fresh escalation after weeks of relative calm and adds significant supply risk premium to energy markets.</li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>fell as much as 2%—its biggest drop since July—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh vowed to return inflation to the 2% target, boosting the dollar and bets on a rate hike this year. Silver also reversed sharply after hitting fresh high $71.17</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The <strong>2-year Treasury yield</strong> rose 12 basis points on Friday to 4.35% — the second-largest single-day increase this year and the most hawkish single-day yield move at Jackson Hole in at least 20 years. The move reflects sharply repriced Fed hike expectations, with swaps now pricing more than a 50% probability of a hike at the September 16 meeting and two hikes priced by March 2027.</li> <li>The <strong>Treasury curve</strong> flattened dramatically on Friday, with the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads each tightening by approximately 7 basis points and the 2s30s by around 10 basis points. The 30-year yield ended only marginally higher as longer-end bonds were partially supported by Bessent's buyback programme. </li> <li><strong>Japanese government bonds</strong> are expected to fall at the open, tracking US Treasuries. Japan is scheduled to sell 10-year bonds on 1 September and 30-year securities on 3 September. Poor demand at these auctions could ricochet into global bond markets, adding further upward pressure on yields at a sensitive time. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodity weekly: From barrels to bushels and bullion as scarcity broadens the commodity rally</h1> <p>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Commodity strength has broadened while leadership has rotated: </strong>BCOM TR remains firmly higher in August and around 30% higher year to date, but precious metals, grains and soft commodities have replaced energy as the main engines of the latest advance. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Precious metals have rediscovered their hard-asset credentials</strong>: gold, silver and platinum have rallied strongly amid fiscal concerns, renewed investor demand and technical momentum, even as elevated inflation keeps the outlook for US monetary policy uncertain. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Agriculture is experiencing its strongest broad-based advance in years</strong>: Black Sea disruption, tighter logistics and increasingly volatile weather have driven double-digit gains across wheat, corn, sugar and cocoa. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Copper remains the industrial-metal standout</strong>: despite some late-month weakness across the sector, copper remains close to record levels and within a well-defined uptrend amid tight ex-US inventories, mine disruptions and massive stock accumulation in the US.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Commodity markets are heading towards the end of August with another strong monthly gain, but beneath the headline performance there has been a notable rotation in leadership. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM TR), which tracks a basket of 24 major commodity futures spread almost evenly between energy, metals, and agriculture, remains on course for its highest monthly close on record, lifting its year-to-date return to around 31%, despite some late-month weakness across energy and industrial metals.</span></p> <p><span>The standout development has instead been the powerful rebound across precious metals and agriculture. Precious metals have gained around 15% this month, while grains and soft commodities are both heading for double-digit advances. Grains are on course for their strongest month since February 2022, while softs are heading for their best monthly performance in 12 years. Despite some weakness across US-focused livestock contracts after Trump temporarily lifted tariffs on some foreign imports, the BCOM Agriculture Index is heading for its best month in more than five years.</span></p> <p><span>The common thread linking these otherwise very different markets is scarcity. In precious metals, concerns about fiscal sustainability, currency debasement and the ability of bond markets to absorb rising government debt have renewed demand for hard assets. Across agriculture, war, weather and logistics have raised concerns about future supply. Energy, meanwhile, has lost some momentum as the market cautiously prices an ongoing improvement in flows through the Strait of Hormuz.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Broad gains seen across most major commodities this past month - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Bullion returns to the front</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Precious metals have been the strongest commodity sector in August, rising around 15%, led by silver, gold and platinum. Gold briefly reached a three-month high near USD 4,700 this week before consolidating ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.</span></p> <p><span>The latest rally has several layers. The first is renewed concern about US fiscal sustainability and the dollar following the Treasury's decision to expand buybacks of longer-dated government bonds. While the programme itself remains relatively modest compared with the size of the Treasury market, the signal was arguably more important than the amount involved. It highlighted the authorities' sensitivity to elevated long-term borrowing costs at a time when government debt continues to rise.</span></p> <p><span>That has helped revive the debasement theme that has supported gold during much of the past two years. Importantly, gold has performed strongly despite elevated bond yields and inflation remaining well above the Federal Reserve's target. Besides an underlying and increasingly constant bid from central banks, this suggests investors are increasingly distinguishing between high yields driven by monetary tightening and high yields reflecting concerns about fiscal sustainability and government borrowing requirements.</span></p> <p><span>Investor participation has also strengthened through ETF demand and futures positioning, while the technical picture improved when gold earlier in the month reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Silver has subsequently outperformed gold, while platinum has also participated, reinforcing the impression of renewed investor interest across the precious-metals complex.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold - Source: Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Agriculture takes centre stage</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Grains are heading for a monthly gain of around 13%, their strongest performance since February 2022, while soft commodities have risen even more strongly. The current gain of around 14% puts the sector on track for its best month in 12 years. The breadth of the rally is worth noting, with corn, wheat, sugar, cocoa and cotton all recording double-digit gains.</span></p> <p><span>The grain rally has increasingly been driven by a combination of war, weather and logistics. Wheat prices have soared to a three-year high as Black Sea disruption has become more serious, with Russia's grain exports slowing sharply, with August grain exports expected to total only slightly above 2 million tonnes, compared with a five-year average of around 5.7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Black Sea ports which previously handled 90% of the country's exports, remain effectively blocked after Russian attacks while alternative corridors like the Danube is suffering from congestion. </span></p> <p><span>The disruption is also reducing farmers' cash flow and raising concerns about planting and input use for next year's harvest. Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 25% to 30% of global wheat exports, so prolonged disruption could force major importers to source more expensive supplies elsewhere. Chicago wheat prices have risen sharply since early July as buyers increasingly price this risk.</span></p> <p><span>For corn, the Black Sea story has been accompanied by a deterioration in the US production outlook. The USDA recently lowered its yield estimate for this season, while subsequent crop surveys have reinforced concerns that yields may fall short of earlier expectations. Weather concerns elsewhere, including China and Brazil, have added another layer of uncertainty.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Chicago Wheat - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>El Niño puts soft commodities back in focus</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Weather has been equally important across soft commodities, where sugar has been the standout performer, gaining close to 25% this month. A strengthening El Niño threatens to create different problems across major producing regions. Excessive rainfall can disrupt harvesting and exports in Brazilian, while weaker rainfall elsewhere can hurt crop development. India has already faced concerns about monsoon conditions and domestic sugar availability, while increasingly volatile weather is raising uncertainty across several tropical crops.</span></p> <p><span>Sugar's rally has also been amplified by positioning. Earlier this month, speculative funds moved from a sizeable net short to a net long for the first time in more than a year, highlighting how rapidly a fundamentally driven move can accelerate when short covering and momentum buying are added to the mix.</span></p> <p><span>Cocoa has also rallied by double digits as attention shifts towards the next West African crop. Concerns about delayed harvesting in Ivory Coast and a weaker production outlook in Ghana have reinforced the market's sensitivity to weather after several years of exceptionally volatile supply conditions.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean every weather concern will translate into an actual shortage. Agricultural markets have a long history of pricing the weather forecast before ultimately trading the harvest. But with inventories relatively tight across several markets, geopolitical disruptions complicating trade flows and weather patterns becoming increasingly volatile, the tolerance for disappointing crops has fallen. Markets that only a few months ago were comfortable pricing abundant supplies are increasingly being forced to attach a higher risk premium to future availability, particularly as disruptions to planting, harvesting and export logistics can amplify the impact of an initially modest production setback.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Copper remains supported</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Industrial metals have lagged the broader commodity rally during August, but zinc and copper remain important exceptions. LME copper is heading for a ninth consecutive weekly gain and continues to trade within a well-defined uptrend close to record levels, while zinc surged to a four-year high amid signs of ore shortages before slipping back, but remains on track for a 7% gain. Both markets are displaying signs of near-term supply tension after a turbulent few weeks in which dwindling inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses drove the cost of metal for immediate delivery well above prices for future delivery.</span></p> <p><span>With regard to copper, one unusual feature of the current market is the geographical distortion in inventories. Huge volumes of refined copper have accumulated in the US ahead of the possibility of future import tariffs, effectively pulling metal away from other markets. COMEX inventories have risen to record levels while available stocks elsewhere have tightened.</span></p> This does not necessarily mean the world is running out of copper. Indeed, some forecasts still point towards a global refined-metal surplus this year. Rather, trade policy and arbitrage have created a regional mismatch between where copper is located and where it is needed. However, combined with mine disruptions, smelter constraints and continued demand for this important energy transition metal, that mismatch has been enough to keep the market tight and prices elevated.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Crude softens as more barrels move through the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Oil prices have fallen sharply this week as the market increasingly senses that both Washington and Tehran are looking for an exit ramp from a conflict that has imposed a heavy economic cost on both sides. Energy has therefore moved in the opposite direction during the latter part of August. Brent crude has fallen back below USD 90 per barrel and is heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks as traders cautiously price an improvement in Gulf exports and the possibility of an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.</span></p> <p><span>Ship-tracking data supports that view, pointing to increased activity through the Strait of Hormuz and helping to underpin expectations of a gradual improvement in supply. Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating that flows have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels. Crude transits through the Strait are now estimated at 6–8 million barrels per day.</span></p> <p><span>The improvement is nevertheless uneven. While the outlook for crude supply has become less constrained, refined-product markets remain extremely tight. Refinery capacity within the Gulf is still impaired, while a temporary ban on Russian exports has removed additional supplies from international markets. As a result, the market is experiencing a growing divergence between improving crude availability and continued shortages of gasoline and distillates.</span></p> <p><span>The latest weekly update from the US EIA showed that refinery utilisation had risen to its highest seasonal level since 1998. Record refining margins have incentivised refiners to maximise production, while export demand has remained strong because of the Russian export ban and stranded capacity in the Persian Gulf. Even with refiners operating at such high rates, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2012, at 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories also plunged to a record low of 105.6 million barrels.</span></p> <p><span>This helps explain why energy can underperform even while geopolitical risks remain unusually elevated. Crude prices are trading the direction of change in supply disruption rather than its absolute level, while tight refined-product inventories continue to signal that the physical market remains vulnerable to further shocks.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Elevated spread between crude and refined products remain - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Commodities as a portfolio allocation</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The increasingly broad nature of this year's rally also highlights why commodities can play a role beyond short-term tactical trading. A broad allocation to commodities can provide an additional source of long-term returns and potentially help protect portfolios during periods when rising inflation expectations challenge both equities and bonds. The drivers are also becoming increasingly diverse.</span></p> <p><span>Oil demand remains strong, with continued growth expected over the coming years, particularly across emerging economies. Industrial metals, in particular copper, should benefit from structural demand linked to electrification, the energy transition and the ongoing global buildout of AI-related infrastructure. Meanwhile, increasingly volatile weather, including the developing El Niño pattern, could restrict agricultural supply and keep food commodity markets sensitive to production setbacks.</span></p> <p><span>None of these themes provides a straight line to higher prices. A diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East could remove additional risk premium from energy, improved weather could quickly pressure agricultural markets, while slower global growth would challenge industrial-metal demand. Precious metals could also face renewed profit-taking should real yields and the dollar strengthen further.</span></p> <p><span>For now, however, the message from August is clear. The commodity rally is no longer being carried primarily by barrels. Bullion and bushels have joined the advance, and with war, weather, trade policy and fiscal concerns affecting different parts of the complex, scarcity in its various forms remains the dominant theme.</span></p> <span><em>The chart shows the five-year performance of the BCOM TR and some of its underlying components. The index gained 76.7%, led by a 162.8% increase in precious metals (gold and silver), while agricultural and industrial metals lagged, rising by around 36%.</em> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Five-year performance of the BCOM TR index and some of its underlying components. - Source: Bloomberg Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-hit-two-year-high-as-war-weather-and-logistics-tighten-supply-26082026" data-id="B0B20D180EA94152AA80485EF387EEAB" data-type="Article">Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply</a><br /> 26 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> 24 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-18-august-2026-24082026" data-id="47A78E5C9385496996F77887089CAE50" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026</a><br /> 21 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-weather-war-and-debt-broaden-the-commodity-rally-21082026" data-id="0F6FF5F15A1647ABAADBA369BCD582C0" data-type="Article">Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Sugar</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>After Nvidia, where does the AI money go next?</h1> <p>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2">Key takeaways</h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Nvidia confirms strong AI computing demand,</strong> but the spending chain is becoming much broader.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Proprietary data and workflows may gain value</strong> as powerful AI models become easier to access.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>More autonomous AI creates new needs</strong> around identity, security and recovery.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span> <p>Nvidia’s results on 26 August 2026 confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing remains enormous. But this earnings week also suggested that the AI opportunity is starting to spread well beyond the graphics processing unit (GPU).</p> <p>Across chips, software and cybersecurity, a clearer picture is emerging of what comes next. AI increasingly needs three things to scale: compute to run, context to become useful, and control to be trusted.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Compute is becoming more specialised</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Marvell designs chips and networking technology for data centres. Revenue rose 37% to a record 2.74 billion USD, with Data Center revenue up 46%.</span></p> <p><span>Its results also show the gap between winning a design and earning the revenue. Marvell secured a major custom-chip agreement with Google, but management said the biggest contribution should arrive later, particularly from fiscal 2029.</span></p> <p><span>Synopsys sells software and intellectual property used to design complex chips and systems. Revenue reached 2.48 billion USD, up about 42%, while management raised its outlook and pointed to AI-driven complexity.</span></p> <p><span>As hyperscalers build more customised infrastructure, value can spread towards companies that help design, connect and optimise specialised systems.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Context may become software’s new moat</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Powerful AI models increasingly have similar general capabilities. What they do not automatically have is a company’s customer history, payroll records, engineering designs and business rules.</span></p> <p><span>That gives established software companies an interesting asset: context.</span></p> <p><span>Salesforce stores customer and sales data. Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly 3.9 billion USD, up more than 210%. Its expanded Anthropic partnership makes the logic clear: Salesforce can make Claude more useful by connecting it to trusted data, workflows and governance.</span></p> <p><span>Workday manages human resources and finance processes. AI products generated more than 25% of new annual contract value, while more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent.</span></p> <p><span>Autodesk extends the argument into engineering and construction. Its software sits inside project workflows, giving AI access to rich technical context. Management argues that useful AI in the physical world requires trusted project data.</span></p> <p><span>If intelligence becomes easier to access, the moat can migrate from owning the model to owning what makes the model useful.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Control becomes more valuable as AI gains autonomy</strong></span></h3> <p><span>The third layer appears when AI stops answering questions and starts taking actions.</span></p> <p><span>A company running thousands of agents must know which agent is acting, what it can access and how to recover if something goes wrong.</span></p> <p><span>CrowdStrike protects devices and cloud systems. Its Falcon Flex ARR exceeded 2.29 billion USD, up 101%, suggesting customers increasingly want a broader security platform.</span></p> <p><span>Okta manages digital identities and access. Revenue grew a more modest 11%, which is a useful reminder that a convincing AI story is not the same as proven monetisation. Still, every agent needs an identity and permissions.</span></p> <p><span>Rubrik adds recovery and data protection. Subscription ARR rose 33% to 1.66 billion USD, while its strategy increasingly includes securing AI-agent activity.</span></p> <p><span>More autonomous AI can therefore create some of the security spending needed to make further adoption possible.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The risks are moving too</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Custom-chip projects can take years to scale. Software companies may own valuable data without successfully charging more for AI access. Security vendors may face tougher competition as larger platforms bundle more tools.</span></p> <p><span>Watch delayed production ramps, weak AI-related contract growth and rising usage that fails to become recurring revenue.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Separate AI exposure into compute, context and control</span></strong><span> rather than treating every AI company as the same trade.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Track conversion, not announcements.</span></strong><span> Design wins, pilots and agent usage matter when they become revenue and cash flow.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Ask whether AI strengthens an existing moat</span></strong><span>, such as proprietary data or embedded workflows.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Keep diversification in mind.</span></strong><span> The AI value chain is widening, but expectations can widen even faster.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>From compute to context and control</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Nvidia remains the clearest proof that the AI infrastructure boom is alive. Yet this earnings week suggests the opportunity is becoming broader and more layered. Marvell and Synopsys help build specialised infrastructure. Salesforce, Workday and Autodesk give AI the business context it needs. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik help companies trust it enough to act.</span></p> <p><span>That does not make every company in the chain a winner. It does give investors a more useful map. The first phase rewarded scarce computing power. The next may reward scarce context and control. Compute makes AI possible, context makes it useful, and control makes it deployable at scale.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Can Fed Chair Warsh give the market what it wants?</h1> <p>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:27:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Is clarity too much to ask for?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/can-fed-chair-warsh-give-the-market-what-it-wants/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.<br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator put out <span><a href="https://substack.com/inbox/post/202721543" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a priceless piece picking apart the absurdities and dangers of the current market environment</a></span> - a must read for both content and the high entertainment value.</li> <li>The FT's Robin Wigglesworth with a NY Times op-ed on <span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/opinion/ai-debt-economy-hyperscalers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how the AI debt binge could sink the economy</a></span>.</li> <li>Friend of the show Peter Garnry out with a piece on LinkedIn warning to <span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7498650776618151937/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">be careful about celebrating the idea of "asset light" companies and what to focus on instead</a></span>. </li> <li>One of the FT's most read pieces today is how <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7fd9c234-a92b-4ab2-ba1f-969cf9a23f52?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">junior consultants are being called back into the office to practice their human skills, which are becoming more valuable in the age of AI</a></span>. The irony!</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Tech earnings lift a narrow market as Warsh takes the Jackson Hole stage - 28 August 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech are the session’s key focus</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US technology surged on earnings strength, Europe fell on French political risk, Asia traded cautiously ahead of Jackson Hole.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Bitcoin holds near 80k and a back-to-back weekly gain</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude firms despite rising Gulf exports; gold holds below USD 4,600 ahead of Warsh speech; wheat and corn post strong weekly gains</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Yields pull higher, still within recent range below cycle highs.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD edges to local highs ahead of Fed Chair Warsh speech</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Jackson Hole is the session's single reference point.</strong> Fed Chair <strong>Kevin Warsh</strong> delivers his first symposium keynote as chair at <strong>14:00 GMT</strong>, and positioning has been built around a hawkish tone intended to anchor long yields. The speech lands 19 days before the <strong>16 September FOMC</strong>, with money markets pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a September move after a run of softer prints.</li> <li><strong>Two Asian central banks moved the other way.</strong> Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food rose <strong>1.8% year-on-year</strong> in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan increase, with September now in focus. The <strong>Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25 basis point rise to 3.00%</strong> in a six-to-one decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0645 – France Flash Aug. CPI</li> <li>0700 – Spain Flash Aug. CPI</li> <li>0755 – Germany Aug. Unemployment Claims / Unemployment Rate</li> <li>1230 – Canada Jun. / Q2 GDP estimate</li> <li>1345 – US Aug. Chicago PMI</li> <li>1400 – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole</li> <li>1400 – US Aug. Final University of Michigan Sentiment survey</li> </ul> <p><strong>Today, at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers,</strong> Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote, and while he is likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.4%, although technology almost entirely drove the rally and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while Salesforce jumped 22.6% on a strong outlook and deeper Anthropic partnership. CrowdStrike rallied 20.5% after strong earnings and higher guidance. After hours, Gap gained 13.3% after raising its earnings outlook, while Marvell fell sharply as its Google deal failed to meaningfully lift its longer-term revenue outlook.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7%, its biggest decline since 23 July, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.8% as French political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. France’s CAC 40 underperformed ahead of a key presidential debate, with BNP Paribas falling 4.8% and infrastructure group Eiffage sliding 7.4% as investors reassessed political and fiscal risks. Pernod Ricard also weakened after warning that growth would land at the lower end of expectations. Germany bucked the trend, with the DAX rising 0.3% as SAP gained 5.5% on renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s results.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian markets opened cautiously on Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with the Kospi falling around 1.1% at the open despite Nvidia’s strong results. South Korean memory shares weakened as investors digested the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate increase, while Nikkei 225 futures were broadly flat ahead of Tokyo inflation data and a Japanese government bond auction. Singapore’s STI had fallen 0.7% on Thursday, with Genting Singapore down 2.3% and Venture Corp up 1.7%. Baidu gained as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong after confirming its move to a dual-primary listing from 1 September.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Fear readings fell sharply after the technology earnings. <strong>VIX dropped 4.73% to 14.50</strong> while same-day <strong>VIX1D fell 10.77% to 11.52</strong> and VIX9D 9.23% to 12.10. Nasdaq volatility eased 5.51% to 20.24 and VVIX 2.75% to 82.90.</li> <li>The curve held a steep contango, 12.10 at nine days against 17.56 at three months, with the front future at 16.70 and <strong>SKEW elevated at 144.05</strong>. MOVE firmed 0.61% to 69.86. SPX options imply <strong>0.55% today and 1.25% into Friday 4 September</strong>, with Jackson Hole the catalyst. Expected-move figures are option-implied, not forecasts; options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Oil held onto Thursday’s gains, with Brent rising towards USD 90 as prospects for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded. The White House said the US is not negotiating with Iran and that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Despite the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough, crude is still heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks as flows through Hormuz continue to recover. Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating that flows have reached around two-thirds of pre-war levels and crude transits through the Strait now running at an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day.</li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Gold holds below USD 4,600, having spent the latter part of the week consolidating following recent strong gains as investors weigh the outlook for US interest rates ahead of today’s key speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Gold has gained around 13% this month, supported by fiscal debt concerns and a renewed focus on currency debasement. Those gold-supportive concerns have not gone away, but for now traders are focused on Warsh and the trajectory of short-term rates, with a full 25-basis-point hike priced in before year-end.</li> <li>The broad-based Bloomberg Commodity Index trades broadly unchanged on the week following strong gains during the previous three. Lower energy prices and profit-taking across precious metals have offset another strong week for agriculture, particularly grains, where prices reached a two-year high led by gains in corn and wheat amid mounting supply concerns. For the month, the BCOM is up 6.4%, supported by double-digit gains across precious metals, softs and grains, highlighting the increasingly broad-based nature of the commodity rally.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Treasuries traded slightly weakly on Thursday as yields at the front end of the curve edged back toward recent highs near 4.25%</strong> ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech later Friday, while longer-dated yields were also marginally higher, if still trading near the middle of the recent range for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yield benchmarks.</li> <li><strong>US high-yield bond yield spreads to US Treasuries have narrowed to their tightest levels in well over a month</strong>, with the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread at 263 basis points, matching the low since early July and not far from the record post-GFC low of 250 basis points.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar remains in a holding pattern amidst muted volatility across currencies</strong> and ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech, slightly firmer as <strong>EURUSD</strong> has slipped just below 1.1650 and <strong>USDJPY</strong> squeezed back above 159.50, eyeing the odds of official intervention to weaken the JPY should 160.00+ trade.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 28 August, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>All eyes on Fed’s Warsh at Jackson Hole tonight</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Nvidia surged 8.7%, Salesforce +22.6% and CRWD +20% after earnings</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>USD steady pre</span>‑<span>Jackson Hole; AUD outperforms, CAD and CHF strengthen</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Record $7bn gold and Bitcoin ETF inflows; WTI above $85</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasury yields grind higher; JGBs pressured pre</span>‑<span>auction</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span><strong ><span></span></strong></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Jackson Hole:</strong> All eyes are on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole keynote, where markets expect a hawkish tone; Apollo’s chief economist sees a “hawkish flavor” aimed at anchoring long yields. Fed officials are split ahead of the speech: Kansas City’s Schmid and Cleveland’s Hammack argue policy isn’t restrictive enough, while Boston’s Collins says rates remain only mildly restrictive.</li> <li><strong>US Jobless Claims:</strong> Initial jobless claims fell 4k to 203k in the week ending 22 August, below the 208k estimate, pointing to continued labor market resilience. Continuing claims also declined 18k to 1.778m.</li> <li><strong>Tokyo CPI</strong> ex-fresh food rose 1.8% YoY in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and reinforcing the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike, with September increasingly in focus. </li> <li>The <strong>Bank of Korea</strong> delivered a back-to-back 25bp rate hike, raising its benchmark rate to 3.00% in a 6-1 decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.</li> <li><strong>US–Canada trade talks</strong> collapsed, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick accusing Prime Minister Carney of adding last-minute demands and scuttling an emerging deal for domestic political reasons ahead of Alberta's independence vote and Quebec elections. </li> <li>Trump reportedly rejected a return to the Iran nuclear agreement in favour of continued economic pressure, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,730.99, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, and the Dow added 0.2% to 53,569.44, driven almost entirely by technology. <strong>Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for ~70% revenue growth in FY2028.</strong> <strong>Salesforce jumped 22.6% on a strong outlook and a deepened Anthropic partnership while Crowdstrike rallied 20% after strong earnings.</strong> Every other sector declined, with the equal-weight S&P 500 falling 0.3%.<strong> In after-hours trading</strong>, Gap rose 11% on a raised earnings outlook while <strong>Marvell Technology fell more than 7% after hours despite a modest beat as the deal with Google failed to meaningfully increase its long-term revenue outlook, weighing on Nasdaq futures heading into Friday's Asia open.</strong></li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> European stocks fell on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 0.7% to 651.85, its biggest single-day decline since 23 July. French political uncertainty dominated, with the CAC 40 the worst-performing major index as presidential candidates outlined policies ahead of a key debate. BNP Paribas fell 4.8%, Societe Generale dropped over 4%, and Eiffage led individual declines at -7.4%. Pernod Ricard weighed on consumer staples after warning growth would come in at the lower end of expectations. The DAX bucked the trend, rising 0.3% to 26,367.24, led by SAP's 5.5% gain on Nvidia tailwinds. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,792.54, with Shell the largest drag.</li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian markets opened lower on Friday, cautious ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The Kospi fell 1.1% to 6,836.63 at the open, with South Korean memory names sliding in pre-market despite Nvidia's strong results; the BOK's second consecutive rate hike also tempered sentiment. <strong>The STI fell 0.7% on Thursday to 5,684.12, with Genting Singapore the worst performer (-2.3%), while Venture Corp led gainers (+1.7%)</strong>. Nikkei 225 futures were broadly flat heading into Friday's session, with traders focused on a two-year JGB auction and the Tokyo CPI print. Hang Seng futures pointed to initial declines. <strong>Baidu rose as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong on Thursday after announcing it will upgrade its listing to dual-primary status on HKEX </strong>from 1 September. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.7% on Thursday.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Friday (28 Aug) — BYD, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was roughly flat at 1,194.43 as traders stayed cautious ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, leaving the dollar down about 1% in August and ~2.3% over the past month while options flows positioned for a possible rebound. </span></li> <li><span>In G10, <strong>EURUSD</strong> was broadly steady at 1.1653 with bullish momentum fading and key support at 1.1570, and <strong>GBPUSD</strong> was marginally softer at 1.3593 amid limited conviction.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> rose to 159.39 as the yen weakened for a fourth session and the effect of July’s joint intervention faded against the still</span>‑<span>wide US</span>‑<span>Japan rate differential. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> was the day’s G10 outperformer at 0.7194 on RBA hike expectations and heavy AUDNZD call demand, while<strong> NZDUSD </strong>gained modestly to 0.5951 but underperformed amid New Zealand election uncertainty. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCAD</span></strong></span><span> slipped to 1.3855 as firmer oil supported the loonie, and <strong>USDCHF</strong> edged down to 0.8042 as the franc benefited from mild safe</span>‑<span>haven demand on geopolitical concerns.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Gold </span></strong></span><span>held near $4,600 per ounce, on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1999. The metal has been supported by the US Treasury's surprise ramp-up in long-dated bond buybacks, which revived the debasement trade and weighed on the dollar. <strong>Gold and</strong> <strong>Bitcoin ETFs</strong> together attracted a record $7 billion in inflows over the past five trading days. </span></li> <li><strong>Oil</strong> prices edged higher on Thursday, with WTI trading above $85 per barrel, paring recent declines. Alberta projected a surprise C$2 billion budget surplus driven by the war-related oil price spike. Iran–Oman diplomatic discussions around the Strait of Hormuz were also in focus, with Qatar's foreign ministry confirming talks on a joint mine-clearing project. </li> <li><strong>Copper</strong> remains elevated, with the LME backwardation structure — spot trading as much as $543 per ton above three-month contracts at its peak — reflecting near-term supply tightness, though the squeeze has eased somewhat after significant deliveries to the LME by traders including Trafigura.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US Treasury yields </span></strong></span><span>continued to drift higher on Thursday, with the 10-year yield rising ~2–3 basis points to 4.674% and the 30-year yield reaching 5.191%, as markets positioned for a potentially hawkish Warsh speech. The daily range on the 10-year was less than 4 basis points, reflecting a wait-and-see tone ahead of Jackson Hole. </span></li> <li><span>The Treasury's $44 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday drew a yield of 4.512% — the highest since December 2024 — and cleared in line with the when-issued yield, indicating demand met expectations. The prior day's $70 billion 5-year auction tailed slightly, extending a streak of ten consecutive weak results in that tenor. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>JGB markets</span></strong></span><span> are under pressure ahead of a 2-year auction on Friday, with 2-year yields near cyclical highs. The Tokyo CPI print was broadly in line with expectations, and traders are expected to look through it and focus on the auction result, with bid-to-cover ratios this year ranging widely from 3.32 to 5.24.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Nvidia does what it can to bring cheer. Dark geopolitics still lurk in the background.</h1> <p>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 09:32:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Nvidia lifts AI sentiment.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/nvidia-does-what-it-can-to-bring-cheer-dark-geopolitics-still-lurk-in-the-background/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.<br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <ul> <li>As Michael Every predicted, <span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-26/us-aims-to-revive-civil-war-era-court-to-claim-iran-oil-as-prize" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the US is now considering the equivalent of "letters of marque" or 19th century and earlier era policies allowing private operators to serve as extension of US power overseas</a></span>, for things like seizing Iran's oil.</li> <li>Today's very compelling set of <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dbf42a47-2162-476c-a52a-713e3a9ec2f9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">FTAlphaville Further Reading links</a></span> very much worth a browse.</li> </ul> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Nvidia rises on strong earnings and growth outlook - 27 August 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 06:02:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2>Market drivers and catalysts</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro:</strong> A firmer inflation print hardened the case for another rate rise this year.</li> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US stocks were flat before Nvidia’s beat, Europe was steady, Asian chip shares rallied as Nvidia reinforced artificial intelligence demand.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Coins drifted and the miners were sold hard while fund inflows kept building.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Wheat hits three-year high on Russia-Ukraine tensions; oil gyrates and gold consolidates.</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US and European yields rebounded Wednesday.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> Very muted volatility ahead of Fed Chair Warsh Jackson Hole speech Friday. CHF weak again on carry trade appeal.</li> </ul> <h2>Macro</h2> <ul> <li> <strong>Inflation came in a shade warmer than expected.</strong> The <strong>July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month</strong> after a 0.1% fall in June, above the 0.1% forecast, with services prices up 0.3% and goods 0.1% lower. Core PCE also rose 0.2%. Year-on-year the headline rate held at <strong>3.7% (versus expectations for a dip to 3.6%)</strong> and core at <strong>3.3%</strong>. Money markets responded by moving to fully price a <strong>December rate hike from the Federal Reserve</strong>. </li> <li> <strong>The activity data was firmer than the growth print.</strong> Personal spending rose 0.2% against a 0.1% forecast, though down from 0.3% in June and roughly flat in real terms. <strong>Durable goods orders rose 1.1%</strong>, the strongest since April and double the forecast, led by transportation with gains in capital goods, metals and machinery; ex-transport orders rose 0.4% and the core capital goods capex proxy 0.2%. Second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at a <strong>1.5% annualised rate</strong>, down from 2.1%. </li> <li> <strong>The Strait of Hormuz story moved another step toward resolution.</strong> Iran and Oman agreed terms for sharing the waters and the revenues of the strait, though Tehran said reopening the waterway requires more than this deal. President Trump said 10 million barrels moved through on Tuesday and repeated that the mines have been cleared. New US sanctions on Iran landed milder than feared. </li> <li> <strong>Wheat prices hit a three-year high</strong> as concerns grow the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate and further disrupt supplies from a region that supplies more than 25% of global wheat exports, as well as large amounts of barley, corn and sunflower oil, raising the risk of another round of food inflation on top of the one caused by higher energy prices. </li> </ul> <p> More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a> </p> <h3>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h3> <ul> <li>0600 – Germany September GfK Consumer Sentiment</li> <li>1230 – US July Advanced Goods Trade Balance</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1700 – US to Sell USD 44 billion 7-year Notes</li> </ul> <p> The <strong>Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers starts today and runs through Saturday,</strong> with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote tomorrow. The theme of the symposium is titled <em>“Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”</em> – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions. </p> <h3>Earnings events</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday:</strong> Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard</li> </ul> <p> For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar.</a> </p> <h2>Equities</h2> <ul> <li> <strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 finished little changed, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1% as firmer US inflation lifted Treasury yields ahead of Nvidia’s results. <strong>Nvidia </strong>fell 1.6% in regular trading before jumping over 5% after hours as quarterly revenue more than doubled and management guided third-quarter sales to about $108 billion, while forecasting roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028. <strong>Salesforce </strong>surged almost 13% after hours after raising its annual outlook and expanding its Anthropic partnership through Claudeforce. Attention shifted to whether Nvidia’s optimism could lift artificial intelligence shares more broadly and to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. <span data-teams="true"><strong>CrowdStrike</strong> surged almost 10% after hours after beating earnings expectations, with revenue up 26% year on year and full-year guidance raised to $5.99–6.01 billion.</span></li> <li> <strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 finished flat, while the DAX gained 0.1%, the CAC 40 rose 0.3% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as investors balanced softer oil prices against caution in technology and healthcare. Ambu dropped 15.8% after cutting its growth outlook and receiving a Nordea downgrade, while Ferrovial fell 5.0% after UBS downgraded the shares on concerns about returns from its planned Tennessee toll-road project. The broader market remained in wait-and-see mode, with Nvidia’s stronger outlook providing a fresh test for Europe’s semiconductor and technology shares today. </li> <li> <strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities turned mixed after an early Nvidia-led surge. South Korea’s Kospi was up around 1% by midday after opening 2.8% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4% as the Bank of Korea’s second consecutive rate hike cooled the Korean rally. Earlier, SK Hynix gained around 3% and Samsung Electronics rose 2.3% as Nvidia’s results reinforced expectations for strong artificial intelligence-related memory demand. The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, shifting attention from the earnings boost back toward inflation and borrowing costs. </li> </ul> <p> More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a> </p> <h2>Digital Assets</h2> <ul> <li> The coins drifted and the listed miners took the brunt. <strong>IREN fell 6.23%</strong> ahead of its results tonight, Marathon 5.16%, CleanSpark 4.47% and Riot 3.24%, while <strong>Coinbase and Strategy both fell 2.87%</strong> and Circle 2.29%. Deribit's implied volatility gauge eased to 40.24. </li> <li> <strong>US spot bitcoin funds extended their inflow run to a seventh session</strong>, drawing USD 314 million on Tuesday. That takes August to <strong>USD 3.03 billion</strong> and has more than halved the year's cumulative net outflows, to USD 2.26 billion. </li> </ul> <h2>Commodities</h2> <ul> <li> <strong>Agriculture:</strong> Wheat futures in Chicago hit a three-year high as concerns grow that the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate further and disrupt supplies from a region that accounts for more than 25% of global wheat exports. Ukraine is already facing a drop of more than 50% in agricultural exports this season compared with previous estimates, according to its agriculture ministry. Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments are expected to fall by more than 50% in August from a year earlier. Overall, these developments are squeezing farmer cash flow, potentially affecting planting and next year’s production. </li> <li> <strong>Oil:</strong> Crude prices rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with Brent rising from below USD 86 to near USD 90 on reports of a potential Russian escalation in Ukraine, before reversing on news of an Iranian revenue-sharing agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are down around 8% from Monday’s peak amid renewed Middle East supply optimism, while US inventory data highlighted continued stress in refined products, with gasoline stocks falling to their lowest seasonal level since 2012 and diesel inventories to a record low, just ahead of the winter demand season. </li> <li> <strong>Gold:</strong> Bullion continues to consolidate following last week’s surge, with prices so far finding support below USD 4,600, ahead of the USD 4,555 level, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow, with markets looking for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions. Following the latest inflation print, one full 25-basis-point hike is now priced by December. </li> </ul> <p> More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a> </p> <h2>Fixed Income</h2> <ul> <li> <strong>Treasuries came back under pressure on Wednesday, reversing part of the prior day’s move.</strong> A jump in yields occurred around the release of the July PCE inflation data (core PCE as expected but headline PCE data a bit hotter than expected as noted above) and the release of the revised GDP core price index for Q2, which was revised higher to an annualized rate of 3.6% from 3.4%. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.21% after trading below 4.17% intraday, while the benchmark 10-year reversed less of Tuesday’s drop in yields, ending the day near 4.65% after dipping as low as 4.613%. </li> <li> <strong>Europe’s bond yields rebounded sharply Wednesday</strong>, reversing more of Tuesday’s sharp drop in yields that was apparently prompted by the plunge in crude oil prices. The benchmark German 10-year Bund dropped as low as 3.185% near the open of trading Wednesday, only to close back above 3.23%. </li> </ul> <h2>Currencies</h2> <ul> <li> <strong>Currency volatility is extremely muted</strong>, in part driven by uncertainty surrounding Fed policy direction, low volatility in other asset classes, and perhaps traders steering clear of trading the Japanese yen on fears of official intervention. Across the G10 currencies, the average daily trading ranges for nine of the ten (NOK is the exception, linked to oil market volatility) are in the bottom 20% for the last 1,000 trading days, with <strong>EUR</strong> and <strong>USD</strong> pairs in the bottom 5% and 7% of trading ranges, respectively. </li> <li> <strong>The Japanese yen weakened slightly, trading toward the weaker side of the recent range in USDJPY</strong> since the massive wave of official intervention back in late July and the beginning of August. Traders will eye the 159.78 high of that range versus 159.32 currently if global bond yields are pressuring higher again and the US dollar likewise. </li> <li> <strong>The Swiss franc has weakened again on the return of the appeal of carry trades</strong> (funding currency trades in CHF) as volatility remains low, yields elevated and Switzerland’s SNB is seen maintaining its 0% policy rate for now. <strong>EURCHF</strong> has rebounded from the 0.9310 low last week to 0.9389 by early Thursday. </li> </ul> <p> More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Nvidia earnings: AI boom meets margin test</h1> <p>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>Another beat-and-raise quarter:</span></strong><span> Revenue beat expectations by 4.2%, Q3 guidance came around 4% above consensus and management now expects approximately 70% growth in fiscal 2028 vs. current expectations of 45%, confirming that demand remains stronger than available supply.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Two company headwinds—and one macro hurdle:</span></strong><span> Memory costs are set to pull gross margin from 75% towards 71–72%, while free cash flow fell 56% quarter-on-quarter. Higher long-term bond yields add a separate valuation headwind for Nvidia and other long-duration AI stocks.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Positive for the AI ecosystem, but increasingly selective:</span></strong><span> The strongest read-through is for memory, networking, packaging and power infrastructure. Hyperscalers face a more mixed outcome as stronger AI demand comes with higher capex, weaker free cash flow and greater pressure to prove monetisation.</span></li> </ul> <p><span></span></p> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span >Nvidia delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the biggest positive was not the quarterly beat itself. It was management effectively telling investors that AI demand remains supply-constrained even at this scale—and guiding to approximately 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 vs. current expectations of 45%.</span></p> <p><span>That is a powerful counter to the narrative that the AI capex cycle is already peaking. But at a market value above $5 trillion, strong demand alone is not enough. Margins, cash conversion and the returns generated by Nvidia’s customers will increasingly determine the next phase of the story.</span></p> <p><br /> <br /> <span>Revenue gained 106% from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income increased 124%. Hyperscaler revenue also more than doubled, while gross margin was broadly in line with expectations at 75%. </span></p> <p><span>The clearer disappointment was free cash flow. At $21.3 billion, it was reportedly well below forecasts and down sharply from the previous quarter, although it remained 59% higher than a year ago.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Demand was stronger—and broader—than expected</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Data Centre revenue reached $89 billion, representing more than 92% of Nvidia’s total revenue.</span></p> <p><span>Within Data Centre, hyperscale revenue rose 13% sequentially to $48.7 billion. Revenue from AI clouds, industrial companies and enterprises increased a faster 25% to $40.3 billion.</span></p> <p><span>That distinction matters. Nvidia is no longer relying exclusively on a small group of US technology giants. AI-native companies, sovereign projects, industrial customers and enterprises are becoming increasingly important sources of demand.</span></p> <p><span>It is still diversification within AI infrastructure rather than genuine business diversification. But it reduces the risk that Nvidia’s growth depends entirely on the capex decisions of four or five hyperscalers.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The biggest bullish surprise came during the call</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Management expects revenue to grow by approximately <strong>70% in fiscal 2028</strong>, which largely covers calendar 2027. Market expectations had reportedly been closer to 45%.</span></p> <p><span>Nvidia also indicated that it can currently satisfy only around 70% of demand. In other words, the immediate constraint remains supply—not a shortage of customers.</span></p> <p><span>That guidance was the main reason Nvidia shares moved more than 4% higher during extended trading after a more restrained initial reaction to the results. </span></p> <p><span>It also changes the debate around peak growth. A $108 billion quarterly revenue run rate no longer looks like the end of the cycle if Nvidia can deliver anything close to 70% growth next fiscal year.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Rubin execution risk has fallen, but not disappeared</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Nvidia commenced production shipments of Vera Rubin in early August, while inventory increased from $25.8 billion to $31.6 billion as the company prepared for the ramp.</span></p> <p><span>This is reassuring because Nvidia is attempting another major architectural transition immediately after scaling Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra. So far, there is no sign of customers delaying spending while waiting for Rubin.</span></p> <p><span>However, beginning production is not the same as proving a smooth, high-volume deployment. The next two quarters will test:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Rubin manufacturing yields;</span></li> <li><span>HBM4 availability;</span></li> <li><span>rack-scale integration;</span></li> <li><span>advanced-packaging capacity;</span></li> <li><span>networking, power and cooling availability;</span></li> <li><span>how quickly customers can install and utilise delivered systems.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The report reduces the risk of a product-transition slowdown, but the scale and complexity of Rubin mean execution remains important.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>China is optionality, not part of the base case</span></strong></h2> <p><span>China contributed less than 1% of Nvidia’s Data Centre revenue, while the company assumes no China Data Centre compute revenue in its Q3 forecast.</span></p> <p><span>That means the $108 billion guidance does not rely on regulatory relief. Any meaningful reopening would provide incremental upside.</span></p> <p><span>The longer-term risk is that Nvidia’s absence gives Chinese companies a protected market in which to develop domestic accelerators and software ecosystems. Even if restrictions eventually ease, some of that market could be difficult to recover.</span></p> <p><span>For Asian markets, the near-term read-through is most supportive for Korea’s memory suppliers and Taiwan’s foundry, packaging and server supply chains. Nvidia’s continued absence from China, meanwhile, strengthens the strategic case for domestic substitution.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Gross margins are the key earnings tension</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Nvidia delivered a 75% gross margin in Q2 but guided to 74% in Q3. Management subsequently indicated that margins could fall to around 71–72% in the January quarter before stabilising around 72–73% next fiscal year.</span></p> <p><span>The biggest pressure is coming from expensive and scarce memory. Nvidia is planning price increases on some upcoming systems, but there is a timing gap between higher component costs and the company’s ability to recover them from customers. </span></p> <p><span>The bullish interpretation is that margins are falling because AI demand is overwhelming the memory supply chain. Nvidia continues to have strong pricing power, while lower margins are more than offset by revenue growth.</span></p> <p><span>The less comfortable interpretation is that Nvidia’s peak economics are being tested by rising system costs, greater complexity and more expensive inputs.</span></p> <p><span>On quarterly revenue above $100 billion, every percentage point of gross margin represents more than $1 billion of gross profit.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Cash conversion was another weak spot</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The gap between earnings and cash flow was unusually wide. Adjusted net income reached $54 billion, but free cash flow was only $21.3 billion, implying cash conversion of less than 40%.</span></p> <p><span>This largely reflected a heavy working-capital build:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Accounts receivable absorbed $22.3 billion of cash.</span></li> <li><span>Inventory increased by $5.8 billion.</span></li> <li><span>Days sales outstanding rose from 45 to 60 days.</span></li> <li><span>Cash taxes also weighed on operating cash flow.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Nvidia attributed the increase in receivables to extended payment terms on large, multi-quarter agreements with investment-grade customers. The inventory build reflects preparations for Rubin.</span></p> <p><span>Some of this pressure may reverse as payments arrive and Rubin inventory is shipped, so the FCF decline does not necessarily signal weaker demand. However, it makes the quarter’s earnings quality less clean and deserves monitoring as Nvidia extends customer terms and takes on larger financing commitments.</span> <span>Still, after such a strong run in the stock, cash conversion is now another metric investors cannot ignore.</span></p> <p><span>Nvidia also returned around $26 billion to shareholders during the quarter—more than the free cash flow it generated. The company can comfortably absorb this using its balance sheet and first-half cash generation, but the pace would be harder to sustain if weaker cash conversion persists.</span></p> <p><span>GAAP net income of $59.7 billion also included $7.8 billion of gains on equity securities. Adjusted net income of $54 billion is therefore the cleaner measure of underlying performance. </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Nvidia is becoming an AI financier</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Nvidia disclosed:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>supply and capacity commitments of <strong>$279 billion</strong>, up from $119 billion last quarter, primarily related to memory;</span></li> <li><span>approximately <strong>$366 billion</strong> of total future commitments;</span></li> <li><span>another $56 billion of AI-cloud and third-party lease commitments;</span></li> <li><span>maximum gross guarantees of <strong>$108.5 billion</strong>, including as much as $105 billion connected with the OpenAI and SB Energy data-centre development in Ohio;</span></li> <li><span>partnerships intended to mobilise more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>These arrangements can help Nvidia secure scarce supply, accelerate customer deployments and expand its addressable market.</span></p> <p><span>But they also make the company’s risk profile more complex. Investors increasingly need to consider customer credit quality, leases, guarantees, revenue-sharing agreements and Nvidia’s equity investments—not just GPU shipments.</span></p> <p><span>This does not automatically make the revenue circular. It does mean Nvidia is increasingly helping to create and finance the ecosystem into which it sells.</span></p> <p><span>The weaker FCF result makes this development more relevant. Nvidia still has substantial financial flexibility, but expanding commitments alongside rising working-capital requirements could gradually reduce that cushion.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <hr /> <span> </span> <p> </p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>What Nvidia’s results mean for the AI ecosystem</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Memory:</span></strong><span> Nvidia’s margin guidance confirms that HBM and server-memory supply remains tight today, supporting pricing power for SK Hynix, Micron and other suppliers. But supply is catching up. The next stage of the memory trade depends on whether AI demand and rising memory content per accelerator can absorb additional capacity—not simply on shortages pushing prices higher.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Hyperscalers and custom chips:</span></strong><span> Nvidia’s outlook gives another vote of confidence to hyperscaler capex. But the more expensive Nvidia GPUs and memory become, the stronger the incentive for companies to develop custom silicon. This does not undermine Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium or the Broadcom and Marvell ASIC opportunity. Nvidia can remain dominant in frontier AI while custom processors take a larger share of specific inference workloads.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Networking, optics, power and cooling:</span></strong><span> Rubin, Spectrum-6 networking and increasingly large AI factories suggest the bottleneck is moving beyond GPUs into memory bandwidth, data movement, electricity, cooling and data-centre capacity. These remain attractive second-order areas of the infrastructure buildout.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI clouds:</span></strong><span> The 25% sequential growth in Nvidia’s AI-cloud, industrial and enterprise segment supports selected providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius. But high leverage, customer concentration and dependence on external financing make this one of the riskier parts of the ecosystem.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Foundry and packaging:</span></strong><span> The Rubin ramp supports TSMC and advanced-packaging suppliers. Demand visibility remains strong, but capacity constraints, customer concentration and geopolitics cannot be ignored.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Overall, Nvidia’s results validate the AI infrastructure trade—but they are not a signal to indiscriminately chase everything labelled AI. Rising component costs, higher yields and the need to prove returns will increasingly separate companies with pricing power and visible demand from the rest.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Nvidia’s report removes one major near-term concern around demand. The AI infrastructure cycle is not yet rolling over, Rubin is entering production and supply remains the binding constraint.</span></p> <p><span>It does not remove the valuation debate.</span></p> <p><span>The next test is whether Nvidia can preserve enough of its extraordinary margins and restore stronger cash conversion as the business scales. Meanwhile, hyperscalers must show that rapidly rising AI expenditure can generate adequate returns—particularly when long-term yields offer investors an increasingly credible alternative.</span></p> <p><span>For Nvidia and the wider AI ecosystem, the question is no longer whether growth exists. It is where the economics of that growth ultimately settle.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <hr /> <span> </span> <p> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Amazon</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Microsoft</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>Alphabet Inc.</span> <span>Amd</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 27 August, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:01:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Core PCE matches expectations; Headline PCE at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities:</span></strong></span><span> Nvidia rose 5% after raising 2028 revenue guidance to 70% growth</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>PCE print boosts Fed hike bets and USD; AUD leads, JPY firms</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Gold ended a five-day rally as yields and the dollar climbed</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Yields rose, with short-dated Treasuries underperforming</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span><span> </span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The US PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in July 2026 after a 0.1% drop in June, above the 0.1% forecast.</span></strong></span><span> Services inflation climbed 0.3% while goods prices fell 0.1%. <strong>Core PCE also rose 0.2%. Year-on-year, headline PCE stayed at 3.7% and core at 3.3%.</strong></span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US personal spending rose 0.2% in July 2026, above the 0.1% forecast but down from 0.3% in June, as higher services outlays offset a drop in goods.</span></strong></span><span> Real consumer spending was roughly flat after a 0.4% gain in June.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US durable goods orders rose 1.1% m/m in July 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the strongest since April and above the 0.5% forecast, driven by transportation and gains in capital goods, metals, and machinery. Ex-transport, orders rose 0.4%, while core non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, a capex proxy, increased 0.2%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Iran and Oman agreed on how to share Strait of Hormuz waters and revenues</span></strong></span><span>, but Tehran said reopening the waterway needs more than this deal. Trump said 10 million barrels moved through Hormuz Tuesday and reiterated that mines were cleared. Oil prices fell as new US sanctions on Iran were milder than feared, even as reports of a planned Russian escalation in Ukraine kept energy risks in focus.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026</span></strong></span><span>, down from 2.1%. Consumption rose 3.4% and fixed investment 7.0%, including a 1.3% rebound in residential investment, while government spending fell 1.0% and net exports weighed on growth as imports far outpaced exports.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,675.70 on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones fell 0.2% to 53,463.88 and the Nasdaq Composite edged down less than 0.1% to 26,130.20.Meta rose 1% on news of a social media litigation settlement, but weighed on peers Alphabet, Snap and Reddit as this sets the precedence for other social media platforms to undergo similar penalties. <strong>After hours, Nvidia rallied 5% on a Q3 revenue forecast of $105.84–110.16bn (vs. $105.15bn estimate) and bullish FY28 guidance, raising it to ~70% revenue growth from 44%.</strong> <strong>CrowdStrike surged 11% post-market after beating earnings estimates, with revenue growing 26% from a year earlier and raising full-year guidance to $5.99b - $6.01b. Salesforce gained 12% after beating earnings estimates (grew 87%) and raised revenue forecasts to $46.1-$46.4b this year. They also announced a partnership with Anthropic called Claudeforce which will launch plugins integrating with the Salesforce software.</strong> S&P 500 futures gained 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2% in extended trading.</li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> European equities were broadly steady on Wednesday. The Stoxx 600 closed little changed at 656.41, with the Euro Stoxx 50 edging up 0.23% to 6,470.74 and the CAC 40 gaining 0.27% to 8,462.39. The DAX rose 0.19% to 26,285.96, led by Heidelberg Materials (+5.2%). The FTSE 100 dipped slightly to 10,878.12, with AstraZeneca (-1.9%) and Sage Group (-3.8%) leading declines, though the index briefly touched an all-time intraday high of 10,912.60. SAP fell 2.9% and Ferrovial dropped 5.0%. Danish medical device maker Ambu sank as much as 18% after an earnings miss and a Nordea downgrade. Swiss Gurit surged 20.8% after upgrading full-year guidance.</li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian equities opened sharply higher on Thursday, driven by Nvidia's bullish FY2028 revenue outlook. The Kospi surged 2.8% to 6,996.12 at the open, approaching the psychologically significant 7,000 level for the first time this month, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SK Square leading gains. The Bank of Korea's expected back-to-back 25bp hike is seen as priced in. Japanese equities also firmed in early trade. <strong>Kioxia announced plans to invest over ¥1 trillion to build a new NAND flash memory facility in Iwate Prefecture.</strong> Chubu Electric Power came under scrutiny after Nikkei reported its decommissioning procedures at the Hamaoka nuclear plant may have been improper. <strong>Haidilao jumped up to 6.1% after 1H results showed stronger</strong>‑<strong>than</strong>‑<strong>expected operating profit growth, margin expansion and a surprise increase in payout to 100% of earnings.</strong></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Thursday (27 Aug) — Marvell, IREN, Affirm </span></li> <li><span>Friday (28 Aug) — BYD, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> strengthened on Wednesday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.2%—its biggest daily gain since August 10—as a firm PCE inflation print pushed US yields higher and widened rate differentials versus Europe and Canada.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong></span><span>slipped to 1.1651 as the recent rally stalled on wider US</span>‑<span>EU spreads, overbought signals and option-related caps. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>GBPUSD</span></strong></span><span> underperformed, dropping 0.37% to 1.3595, hit by the stronger dollar and UK</span>‑<span>specific concerns around the higher energy price cap and inflation, with September seasonality and BOE risks flagged as additional headwinds. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> firmed to 159.31 within a 158.88–159.45 range, still capped below 160 amid intervention worries, while options pricing shows reduced demand for topside protection.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> held up best among majors, closing at 0.7170 in a tight range, whereas <strong>NZDUSD</strong> fell to 0.5944, widening <strong>AUDNZD</strong>. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCAD</span></strong></span><span> rose to 1.3877 as sticky US core PCE (3.3% y/y) reinforced Fed–BoC divergence, and <strong>USDCHF</strong> climbed to 0.8054 as gold, rather than CHF, captured more of the haven bid.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI </span></strong><span>traded below $82 a barrel and <strong>Brent </strong>closed below $88, taking the week's decline to approximately 6%. Futures initially rose on reports of a potential Russian escalation in Ukraine before reversing after Iran's military reportedly reached a revenue-sharing agreement related to Hormuz shipping. Cushing, Oklahoma stockpiles rose for the third time in four weeks to 22.4 million barrels. The Trump administration has also reportedly depleted the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by about 30% since the start of the Iran conflict.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>is up 7.8% year-to-date at $4,657.17 an ounce. ETFs added 205,710 troy ounces in the last session — the fourth straight day of inflows — equivalent to $958 million. Combined gold and Bitcoin ETF inflows totalled a record $7 billion over the past five trading days, reflecting a simultaneous scarcity trade in both assets.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Yields </span></strong><span>edged higher across the curve after the July PCE print came in above expectations. The 2-year yield rose ~4–5bps to 4.21%, while the 10-year climbed ~3bps to 4.65–4.66% and the 30-year rose less than 2bps to 5.18%. Short-dated Treasuries underperformed as money markets moved to fully price a December Fed rate hike.</span></li> <li><span>The Treasury's $70 billion 5-year note auction was awarded at 4.393%, tailing the 4.391% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline — the tenth consecutive weak result for the tenor. </span></li> <li><span>The 30-year swap spread has narrowed to its tightest since February since Bessent's buyback announcement, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management has trimmed its curve steepener exposure, citing Bessent's apparent willingness to do "whatever it takes" to cap yields. Australian 3-year yields rose 7bps to 4.67% and 10-year yields climbed 6bps to 5.09%, tracking the overnight Treasury move.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Grains hit two-year high as war, weather and logistics tighten supply</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li> <span>The Bloomberg Grains Total Return Index has reached a fresh two year high, supported by broad gains across corn and wheat, with the risk shifting from logistics to future supply. </span> </li> <li> <span>Black Sea disruption intensifies and Russian August grain exports may fall towards 2 million tonnes, sharply below the five-year average of around 5.7 million tonnes. </span> </li> <li> <span>Ukraine faces a longer-term supply risk amid blocked Black Sea ports and congested Danube routes restricting exports, squeezing farmer cash flow and potentially affecting planting and next year's production.</span> </li> <li> <span>Corn adds another source of strength with the Chicago corn futures rising 14% this month amid a deteriorating US crop outlook, while concerns over Brazilian yields and fertilizer availability add to supply uncertainty.</span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p> </p> <p>The Bloomberg Grains Total Return Index, tracked by several ETCs here through the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/trading/product-overview?assetType=Etc&selectedtabid=dynamicProductPage_workspaceDynamicLayout_d3975c-tabsection~overview&uic=36082" target="_blank">WisdomTree Grains ETC</a>, has risen to a fresh two-year high as a combination of weather-related supply concerns and escalating disruption to Black Sea exports continues to support prices. The index is up around 9.3% this month, with corn and wheat leading the advance, while the year-to-date gain has reached 20%. <em>Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</em></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"></h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Total returns across agriculture and grains - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The latest concern centres on the Black Sea, where disruption to exports from both Russia and Ukraine is proving more severe than initially anticipated. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, is seeing shipments constrained by attacks on port infrastructure and commercial vessels. According to a Bloomberg report, the country's grain exports are now expected to total around 2 million tons in August, a 20% reduction compared with a two-week-old projection from ProZerno, well below the five-year August average of 5.7 million tonnes.</p> <p>The strain is even more pronounced in Ukraine, where Russian attacks have effectively blocked the deep-water Black Sea ports that normally handle around 90% of the country's agricultural exports. The disruption is increasingly becoming more than a near-term export problem. With crops struggling to leave farms and storage capacity filling up, producers face weaker domestic prices, tighter cash flow and reduced ability to finance inputs and planting for the next harvest. Ukraine has already warned that storage could fall 8–11 million tonnes short following the harvest if seaborne exports remain constrained.</p> <p>Alternative export routes are providing only limited relief. Reuters reports that up to 70 vessels are currently waiting near Romania's Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian Danube ports to load grain, amid shortages of pilots and priority being given to cargoes carrying fuel. Frequent air-raid alerts have also contributed to delays. Current transit capacity through the canal has reportedly fallen to just two or three vessels per day. According to the Agriculture Ministry, Ukraine exported only 539,000 tonnes of grain during August through the latest reporting period, compared with 1.73 million tonnes during the same period last year.</p> <p>The key risk for global grain markets is therefore shifting from the immediate loss of exports towards the possibility of a more persistent supply shock. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 25% to 30% of total global wheat exports, meaning prolonged disruption could force major importers to source more expensive supplies from North America, Australia and Argentina. Chicago wheat prices have already risen sharply since early July as buyers increasingly price this risk.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Chicago corn has extended its rally, supported by a deteriorating US crop outlook and concerns that earlier expectations for ample supply may prove too optimistic. Corn is up 14% this month and around 9% year to date, while CBOT wheat has gained more than 9% this month and 34% year to date. Weather and input-related concerns elsewhere, including Brazil where lower fertilizer supply, add another layer of uncertainty at a time when geopolitical disruption is already reducing the market's margin for error.</p> <p>The WisdomTree Grains ETC is relatively evenly exposed across the major grain markets, with approximately 34.1% in corn, 32.7% in soybeans, 19.5% in CBOT wheat and 13.7% in Kansas City wheat. This composition helps explain its recent broad-based advance: unlike a wheat-only exposure, it is benefiting from both the Black Sea-driven rally in wheat and increasingly supportive fundamentals across corn and the wider grain complex.</p> <p>For now, the combination of war, weather and increasingly constrained logistics continues to underpin the sector. The next test will be whether Black Sea export capacity begins to recover. If not, attention is likely to shift increasingly towards the knock-on impact on farmer economics, autumn and spring planting decisions and ultimately the size of next year's crops.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">The Bloomberg Grains TR index, tracked here by the WisdomTree Grains ETC - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-escalation-to-exit-ramp-why-oils-war-premium-is-unwinding-again-26082026" data-id="B6C5D8C2E70C4296A18A42D75E2A7914" data-type="Article">From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again</a><br /> 25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> 24 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-18-august-2026-24082026" data-id="47A78E5C9385496996F77887089CAE50" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026</a><br /> 21 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-weather-war-and-debt-broaden-the-commodity-rally-21082026" data-id="0F6FF5F15A1647ABAADBA369BCD582C0" data-type="Article">Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally</a><br /> 20 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/when-bond-markets-need-support-hard-assets-start-to-look-harder-20082026" data-id="DBC9587B67EB44B0A7D674E94D15FC5B" data-type="Article">When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder</a><br /> 18 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-versus-gold-what-an-old-macro-signal-is-telling-us-now-18082026" data-id="88DCED466E324294A33AD16757131CBE" data-type="Article">Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Russian Federation</span> <span>Ukraine</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Soybean</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Waiting for what may or may not surprise from Nvidia and the J-Hole.</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:48:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Market wants big news, but will it get it?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/waiting-for-what-may-or-may-not-come-from-nvidia-and-the-j-hole/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>From escalation to exit ramp: why oil's war premium is unwinding again</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li>Crude prices have fallen sharply as Iran-Oman talks, Pakistani mediation and other signals raise hopes that Washington and Tehran are searching for a way to de-escalate. </li> <li>The price move is running well ahead of the physical recovery, with Hormuz vessel traffic still severely depressed and Gulf energy infrastructure remaining disrupted. </li> <li>Diesel and gasoil cracks have fallen from extreme peaks but remain exceptionally elevated as Gulf refinery outages and Russian export restrictions continue to constrain supply. </li> <li>The biggest downside risk is a meaningful reopening of Hormuz, while the upside risk is that markets have priced a diplomatic breakthrough that proves much harder to deliver.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Oil prices have fallen sharply this week as the market increasingly senses that both Washington and Tehran are looking for an exit ramp from a conflict that has inflicted a heavy economic cost on both sides. Brent crude trades near USD 86 per barrel, extending its three-day decline to around 8.7%, while WTI trades back below USD 80 after trading above USD 87 last week.</p> <p>The change in sentiment has been swift. Only a week ago, markets were focused on renewed tension, severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's promise of an "economic onslaught" against Iran. Today, the focus has shifted towards diplomacy, potential maritime corridors and signs that neither side currently appears eager to return to full-scale military confrontation.</p> <p>The result is a rapid unwinding of part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. However, the physical energy market remains far from normal, suggesting that the market is trading the prospect of improving supply conditions well before those improvements have actually materialised.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"></h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent crude trades near USD 86, below the USD 93 average seen during six months of war and disruptions - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3><span>Searching for an exit ramp</span></h3> <p>The most important development has been talks between Iran and Oman, with the two sides discussing an interim framework aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the establishment of a temporary joint navigational corridor and a project to clear mines from the waterway.</p> <p>Importantly, such an arrangement would not require Washington and Tehran to immediately resolve the much larger disagreements surrounding sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme and regional security. Instead, it could provide a practical first step towards reducing the economic damage while broader negotiations continue.</p> <p>Other developments also point towards de-escalation. The US has reportedly started returning diplomatic personnel to several Middle Eastern posts that were evacuated or downsized following the outbreak of war. The phased return includes missions in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, with other Gulf posts also expected to increase staffing. While hardly proof that the conflict is over, the move suggests Washington currently assesses the risk of renewed large-scale military escalation to have diminished.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Washington's much-anticipated expansion of sanctions against Iran has so far proved less aggressive than feared. The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels and widened the range of activities potentially exposed to secondary sanctions. However, it stopped short of immediately imposing significant penalties on other countries continuing to trade with Iran and, importantly, did not target major Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iranian oil trade.</p> <p>China, Iran's largest oil customer, has responded defiantly, arguing that its relationship with Tehran should not be disrupted and warning that it will take measures to protect its interests. The US may yet escalate its economic campaign, but for now its measured approach reduces the immediate risk of a sanctions confrontation with Beijing that could further disrupt global energy flows.</p> <p>After six months of conflict, the incentives for finding an exit are becoming increasingly clear. Iran desperately needs economic relief and improved access to its oil export markets. Washington, meanwhile, needs energy normalisation after months of elevated fuel prices, SPR releases and disruptions across the Gulf.</p> <h3><span>Crude is pricing diplomacy before physical recovery</span></h3> <p>The speed of this week's sell-off is particularly notable because there has been little evidence yet of a meaningful recovery in physical flows. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed. Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters showed just five commodity vessels crossing on August 25, compared with a ten-day average of around 15. Before the conflict, the Strait handled roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and LNG.</p> <p>In other words, crude prices are falling not because large volumes of disrupted oil have suddenly returned to the market, but because traders are assigning a greater probability to their return in the coming weeks.</p> <p>The market has moved from pricing a high probability of prolonged disruption and renewed escalation towards pricing partial reopening, negotiated shipping arrangements and a lower risk of renewed military confrontation.</p> <p>This also leaves the market vulnerable in both directions. A credible agreement that rapidly restores Hormuz traffic could remove another layer of geopolitical premium. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations could force traders to rebuild risk premium almost as quickly as it has disappeared.</p> <h3><span>Product stress eases but remains extreme</span></h3> <p>The same improvement in sentiment is visible in refined products, although here the physical tightness remains much clearer. The WTI-ULSD spread has retreated to around USD 88 per barrel after recently trading above USD 100, while the Brent-gasoil spread has dropped back below USD 70 from above USD 80 last week.</p> <p>Those are substantial declines, but they should be viewed in context. Both remain at exceptionally elevated levels compared with normal conditions. This time last year, the WTI-ULSD spread traded just above USD 30, while the Brent-gasoil spread traded around USD 22 per barrel, highlighting that the refining system continues to face severe constraints even as the panic premium begins to ease.</p> <p>Middle Eastern refinery outages remain an important factor, while developments in Russia are adding another layer of pressure, particularly across middle distillates. Repeated Ukrainian attacks have disrupted Russian refineries and export infrastructure, potentially restricting diesel exports through September as Moscow attempts to protect domestic supplies amid refinery outages.</p> <p>Based on these observations, we can conclude that crude is increasingly trading diplomacy while diesel and gasoil are still trading scarcity.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Elevated fuel product prices relative to crude oil - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3><span>Peace dividend or premature optimism?</span></h3> <p>The sharp correction in crude reflects signs of an improving diplomatic backdrop, and after months of confrontation both sides increasingly have economic reasons to seek a way out.</p> <p>The immediate downside risk for oil is clear: successful negotiations followed by a sustained reopening of Hormuz could release trapped Gulf barrels, ease shipping costs and further reduce the geopolitical premium. Back in June, when the Strait opened for a few weeks, Brent crude slumped all the way to USD 70 per barrel.</p> <p>The opposite risk is equally important. The market may already be pricing the first stages of a peace dividend before any meaningful peace dividend has actually arrived. Looking again at the most recent developments, the failure to secure a deal following the June reopening drove renewed hostility and a subsequent USD 30 rebound in Brent.</p> <p>Based on these recent developments, the only thing traders seem to be guaranteed is continued price volatility. It remains to be seen not whether tensions have eased — they clearly have — but how much de-escalation is already reflected in the price.</p> <p>For now, the market appears willing to believe that Washington and Tehran have finally found sufficient reason to search for an exit ramp. The next test will be whether diplomacy can turn that expectation into ships actually moving through Hormuz again.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">WTI crude trades near USD 80, more than 10% below the USD 88.5 average seen during the past six months - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions across key oil and fuel futures contracts - Source: CFTC, Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>25 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-pauses-after-powerful-four-day-rally-25082026" data-id="84F367170E354A8E9259606188002888" data-type="Article">Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</a><br /> 24 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-18-august-2026-24082026" data-id="47A78E5C9385496996F77887089CAE50" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026</a><br /> 21 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-weather-war-and-debt-broaden-the-commodity-rally-21082026" data-id="0F6FF5F15A1647ABAADBA369BCD582C0" data-type="Article">Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally</a><br /> 20 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/when-bond-markets-need-support-hard-assets-start-to-look-harder-20082026" data-id="DBC9587B67EB44B0A7D674E94D15FC5B" data-type="Article">When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder</a><br /> 18 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-versus-gold-what-an-old-macro-signal-is-telling-us-now-18082026" data-id="88DCED466E324294A33AD16757131CBE" data-type="Article">Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Software’s next growth problem: more customers or more from each customer?</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2">Key takeaways</h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> <p><strong><span>Intuit is accepting slower near-term growth </span></strong><span>to attract and retain more customers.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span></span><strong ><span>Zoom is trying to sell more products </span></strong><span >to customers already using its platform.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li> <p><span> <p><span ></span><strong ><span>For investors, where growth comes from can matter </span></strong><span >as much as how fast revenue grows.</span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Growing a software company used to look almost suspiciously simple. Add customers, raise prices and sell more licences.</span></p> <p><span>Intuit and Zoom Communications show why the next stage is harder.</span></p> <p><span>Intuit, which owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, expects revenue growth to slow from 14% in fiscal 2026 to 9% to 10% in fiscal 2027. Management is deliberately prioritising customer growth, including through pricing and higher spending to attract customers.</span></p> <p><span>Zoom is taking almost the opposite route. Its video-meeting business is mature, so it wants existing customers to buy more products.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the contrast offers a useful lesson. Revenue growth is only the final number. The interesting part is how a company creates it.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Intuit lowers the toll</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Intuit has spent years benefiting from strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power. Now it is testing whether charging customers less today can create more value tomorrow.</span></p> <p><span>Management says pricing has become an important reason some TurboTax customers leave. The company is responding by widening access and investing more in attracting customers.</span></p> <p><span>That comes with a cost. TurboTax revenue is expected to grow just 2% to 3% in fiscal 2027, while Mailchimp revenue could be flat or fall slightly.</span></p> <p><span>The key question is simple: is Intuit voluntarily lowering the toll to get more cars onto the bridge, or is competition forcing it to lower the toll?</span></p> <p><span>The first can be smart investment. Lower prices can bring in customers who remain for years and later buy other services. The second is more concerning because it can signal weakening pricing power.</span></p> <p><span>Investors therefore need to look beyond slower revenue growth. Customer growth, retention and future spending per customer will tell us whether the sacrifice is paying off.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Zoom builds more rooms</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Zoom has a different problem. Finding another pandemic-sized wave of video-meeting users is unlikely to be a sensible business plan.</span></p> <p><span>Instead, Zoom is expanding what existing business customers can buy. Beyond Meetings, it now offers products including Phone, Contact Center and artificial intelligence (AI) tools.</span></p> <p><span>This is called cross-selling: selling an existing customer another product.</span></p> <p><span>There are signs of progress. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew 4.9%, while enterprise revenue rose 7.8%, its fastest growth in three years. Adoption of Zoom's AI virtual agent also more than tripled from a year earlier.</span></p> <p><span>The equation is simple:</span></p> <p><strong><span>existing customer → more products → higher customer value → faster enterprise growth</span></strong></p> <p><span>Zoom does not necessarily need millions of new customers if each existing relationship becomes broader.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Four ways software can grow</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Intuit and Zoom highlight a useful framework. Most mature software companies have four basic growth levers:</span></p> <ol start="1"> <li>Add more customers.</li> <li>Raise prices.</li> <li><span>Sell more products to existing customers.</span></li> <li><span>Increase how much customers use or spend on existing products.</span></li> </ol> <p><span>These routes are not equally attractive.</span></p> <p><span>Price increases can be highly profitable, but only while customers accept them. Customer acquisition can expand the market, but becomes expensive if new users quickly leave. Cross-selling can be powerful because the company already has the customer relationship, but only if the new products are genuinely useful.</span></p> <p><span>The quality of growth therefore depends partly on what happens after the first sale.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What can go wrong</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For Intuit, the warning sign would be lower prices without meaningfully better customer growth or retention. That would leave the company earning less without gaining enough scale.</span></p> <p><span>For Zoom, watch whether newer products keep growing faster than Meetings. If they remain too small to lift overall growth, strong adoption headlines may have limited financial impact.</span></p> <p><span>Competition matters for both. Software customers have more choices, while AI could make it easier for rivals to launch new products.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Look behind revenue growth:</span></strong><span> separate customer growth, pricing and additional product sales.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch retention:</span></strong><span> attracting customers creates little value if they leave quickly.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Follow spending per customer:</span></strong><span> rising customer value can support growth even in mature markets.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Compare growth with margins:</span></strong><span> faster growth becomes less attractive if acquiring it gets increasingly expensive.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Not all growth is created equal</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Software growth rarely disappears overnight. It usually changes shape.</span></p> <p><span>Intuit is trying to widen the funnel by making its products easier to enter. Zoom is trying to make each customer relationship bigger. </span><span >Both approaches can work, and both can fail. </span><span >The harder question is which route creates lasting value.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Nvidia results in focus as crude slides and Korean chipmakers lead Asia - 26 August 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Cheaper crude and hopes of a Gulf reopening set the tone before heavy data</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities advanced as oil and yields eased, Asian stocks traded firmer but remained cautious ahead of Nvidia.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard on record fund inflows</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: LME copper hits fresh record high; oil falls on signs of a US-Iran offramp; gold consolidates</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global bonds rally on steep sell-off in crude oil, punching yields lower</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Japanese yen finds modest support on lower bond yields. CAD lower on US trade spat, AUD jumps on AU CPI.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil fell as Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz</strong>, with talks aimed at a permanent traffic and security framework. Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran to support diplomacy, Qatar said its mediation continues, and new US measures on Iran were milder than expected, stopping short of secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, <strong>Russian agency RIA reported that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal</strong> that would include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.</li> <li><strong>Australia July CPI surprised to the upside</strong>, with the headline reading 3.5% YoY versus a drop to 3.3% expected and 3.8% in June, while the core readings got the most attention as the “trimmed mean” measure rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY versus 3.6% expected and 3.6% in June.</li> <li>The <strong>US Conference Board Consumer Confidence</strong> survey data for August saw a bifurcation as the Present Situation index rebounded from a revised five-year low in July, while the Expectations index fell sharply to 68.2 from 74.0. It was the lowest reading since January. The overall index was almost steady at 89.4 versus 90.2 expected and 90.2 in July.</li> <li><strong>US July New Home Sales</strong> fell to a 607k annualized pace versus 620k expected, but the June data was revised up sharply to 678k from 628k originally reported.</li> <li><strong>The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June 2026</strong>, the fastest since June 2025 and above the 1.7% forecast, but real prices fell for the 13th month as 3.5% inflation outpaced gains. Chicago (6.9%), New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%) led increases, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%) declined.</li> <li><strong>Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.2% but down from 0.4%</strong> in Q1. Exports rose 2.0%, outpacing 1.5% import growth, while domestic demand edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% fall. Investment stayed weak, with gross fixed capital formation down 0.2%, as machinery and equipment fell 1.4% and construction rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q1.</li> <li><strong>Canada imposed 15%–50% tariffs on about USD 20 billion of US imports</strong> after trade talks collapsed, while the US plans 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Markets cut Bank of Canada rate-hike expectations despite higher energy prices. In response, the Trump administration is said to be weighing additional trade penalties, including higher tariffs and other measures.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1230 – US July Personal Income & Spending</li> <li>1230 – US July PCE Price Index</li> <li>1230 – US 2Q GDP, Personal Consumption & Price Index (second reading)</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes</li> </ul> <p>The <strong>Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August</strong>, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled <em>“Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”</em> – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.6% as falling oil prices and Treasury yields revived demand for technology shares. Nvidia gained 2.2% ahead of earnings, while AMD jumped 4.9% after a Raymond James upgrade and Moderna surged 14.4% as analysts reassessed its cancer-vaccine opportunity. Dick’s Sporting Goods plunged 30.7% after cutting its annual outlook. After hours, Intuit fell 10.0% as its fiscal 2027 guidance missed expectations, with Nvidia earnings and US inflation data now taking centre stage.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.3% and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, as softer-than-feared US sanctions on Iran and falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Healthcare led gains, with Novo Nordisk rising 2.9% after JPMorgan lifted its price target, while Melrose Industries surged 10.4% after outlining a restart of production at its GKN Aerospace facility. Kering fell 3.3% as luxury stocks lagged, while Wolters Kluwer dropped 3.1% after Google launched a new artificial-intelligence tool for the legal industry. Nvidia and Jackson Hole remained the next key tests.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities traded firmer in today’s session as lower oil prices and the rebound in US chip stocks supported sentiment, although investors remained cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results. South Korea recovered from a weak open, with Samsung Electronics gaining around 1.0% and SK Hynix rising 1.2% as semiconductor shares stabilised, while Japan’s Advantest fell 1.7% as investors trimmed exposure ahead of the earnings event. Alibaba gained 1.4% in Hong Kong after reports that founder Jack Ma bought more than HK$600 million of shares following the company’s large AI-focused capital raise. Nvidia remained the main regional catalyst.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard. <strong>CleanSpark gained 6.87%</strong>, Riot 6.50%, Cipher 6.18%, IREN 6.03% and Marathon 5.81%, while <strong>Coinbase rose 4.28%</strong> and Strategy 3.42%. Circle added 4.90%. Solana and XRP lagged the majors.</li> <li><strong>Bitcoin and ether funds drew USD 2.6 billion in the week to 21 August</strong>, their strongest week of 2026, with roughly USD 1.92 billion into the bitcoin products and USD 697 million into the ether ones.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Copper </strong>extended its gains in Asia after a record close in London on Tuesday, rising 0.5% to USD 14,415.50/t on the LME. The rally continues to be supported by persistent tightness in near-term supply of the key transition metal, as large volumes are shipped to the US, draining stockpiles elsewhere at a time when mine supply is struggling to keep pace with growing demand. In New York, the High Grade copper contract trades near USD 6.75 per pound, just shy of the record USD 6.8665 reached earlier this month.</li> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude trades lower for a third day after tumbling on Tuesday as Iran and Oman discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US “Economic D-Day” measures against Iran proved milder than expected. Together, these developments point towards a potential de-escalation, with both sides seemingly looking for an offramp from the conflict. Meanwhile, the API reported another build in US crude inventories, which, if confirmed by the EIA later today, would mark a fourth consecutive weekly increase.</li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>continues to consolidate following a four-day rally that lifted prices by more than 7%. A recovering dollar is providing a headwind, partly offset by lower oil prices feeding through to lower bond yields. Attention is now turning to today’s July PCE inflation data, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, with markets looking for further guidance on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global yields were punched lower Tuesday as crude oil prices sold off steeply.</strong> The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield dropped back nearly six basis points Tuesday to below 4.18% before rebounding back above 4.18% in early trading Wednesday, while the benchmark 10-year shied further away from the recent range top of 4.75%, falling about six basis points from Monday’s 4.70% close to below 4.64% late Tuesday before buying pressure eased.</li> <li><strong>Bond markets will closely watch today’s July PCE inflation data</strong>, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure and expected to show core inflation running at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, unchanged from June. The latter measure saw a peak since late 2023 at 3.42% YoY in May. <strong>Potentially more important for US Treasury yields will be any policy hints in Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Japanese yen recovered modestly on the massive mark-down in crude oil prices</strong>, which helped drag global bond yields lower. <strong>USDJPY</strong> eased back from local highs near 159.50 late Tuesday to trade back toward 159.00 by early Wednesday in Europe after testing slightly below that level.</li> <li><strong>The US dollar</strong> action is neutral as the market holds its breath ahead of the Friday speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which looks particularly pivotal after the US Treasury weighed in with policies and rhetorical signals recently clearly intended to cap long-term US Treasury yields.</li> <li><strong>CAD remains at the weaker side of the recent range on the risk of a widening US-Canada trade spat</strong> as the US side is said to be weighing further tariffs after Canada’s tit-for-tat response to the latest US tariffs imposed on a range of Canadian goods. <strong>USDCAD</strong> hovers near 1.3860.</li> <li><strong>The Australian dollar jumped on the hot CPI data</strong> (see above), which sent anticipation of further RBA tightening higher. AUDNZD rose sharply from around 1.1980 to above 1.2050 after the data, its highest in a week, as AUDUSD rose to new highs since late May near 0.7180.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>National Day Rally had an industrial story too: 8 Singapore stocks to watch</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Much of the attention around Singapore’s National Day Rally focused on household, family and cost-of-living measures. But there was another signal for investors: Singapore is continuing to build the <strong>power, digital and industrial capacity</strong> needed for its next phase of growth.</span></p> <p><span>In August alone:</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Singapore approved <strong>900MW of new electricity imports from Malaysia</strong>, including 300MW proposed by Sembcorp.</span></li> <li><span>Another <strong>200MW of data-centre capacity</strong> was provisionally allocated, including 50MW to Keppel.</span></li> <li><span>Prime Minister Lawrence Wong unveiled a <strong>long-term blueprint to study</strong> the possible merger of Semakau, Bukom, Pulau Sudong and nearby islands into a future western industrial and power hub.</span></li> <li><span>Singapore also upgraded its <strong>2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5–5.5%</strong>, supported partly by stronger global AI-related investment.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The proposed island merger is still a <strong>concept and planning study</strong>, not an approved construction programme. Timelines, industries and beneficiaries remain uncertain.</span></p> <p><span>The more immediate investment story is broader: <strong>power demand is rising, data-centre capacity is expanding, AI-related manufacturing is strengthening and Singapore-listed industrial companies are seeing fresh order and earnings momentum.</strong></span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><span >Here are eight stocks to watch.</span></h2> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Power and infrastructure</span></strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Keppel (BN4)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Keppel has one of the clearest links to Singapore’s current data-centre expansion.</span></p> <p><span>Its Connectivity division has been awarded <strong>50MW of new data-centre capacity</strong> for an AI-ready facility on Jurong Island, while the group also has exposure to power and infrastructure.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> data-centre execution, further capacity awards and growth in infrastructure-related fee income.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Sembcorp Industries (U96)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Sembcorp sits directly in the power story.</span></p> <p><span>Its subsidiary has conditional approval to import <strong>300MW of solar-plus-storage electricity from Johor</strong>, as Singapore looks to secure more power for an increasingly energy-intensive economy.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> cross-border power imports, new generation capacity and demand from data centres and advanced manufacturing.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>CSE Global (544)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>CSE Global provides exposure to electrification, automation and communications systems.</span></p> <p><span>Its recent order momentum has remained firm, making it a more direct small-cap way to track rising spending on power and industrial systems.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> electrification orders, margins and conversion of its project pipeline.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>AI and semiconductors</span></strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>AEM Holdings (AWX)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>AEM has become one of the more interesting Singapore-listed ways to track the AI and high-performance computing cycle.</span></p> <p><span>Its first-half profit rose sharply as demand for advanced chip-testing solutions strengthened.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> AI/HPC testing demand, customer concentration and whether earnings momentum can continue.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>UMS Integration (558)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>UMS also provides exposure to the semiconductor equipment cycle.</span></p> <p><span>Recent earnings improved strongly, supported by demand linked to AI-related semiconductor investment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> order momentum, semiconductor capex and customer diversification.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Advanced manufacturing and exports</span></strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>ST Engineering (S63)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>ST Engineering gives the list a broader industrial and defence angle.</span></p> <p><span>Its order book remains strong across defence, urban solutions, communications and engineering, giving it exposure to both domestic infrastructure and global security spending.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> contract wins, order conversion and margin execution.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Yangzijiang adds an export-manufacturing angle rather than a domestic Singapore infrastructure one.</span></p> <p><span>Recent results were supported by higher-margin vessels and a strong order book, including more complex LNG dual-fuel ships.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> new vessel orders, margins, yard expansion and global shipping demand.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Asset management and digital infrastructure</span></strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Keppel DC REIT (AJBU)</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Keppel DC REIT is the clearest listed Singapore REIT exposure to the data-centre theme.</span></p> <p><span>Its portfolio spans data centres across multiple markets, giving investors a more direct way to track demand for digital infrastructure as AI workloads increase power and capacity requirements.</span></p> <p><span>That makes it a stronger thematic fit than a broader real-estate or asset-management name.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch:</span></strong><span> occupancy, rental reversions, hyperscaler demand, acquisition activity and funding costs.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>Why the theme matters</span></strong></h2> <p><span>These eight companies capture different parts of the same broader shift:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Power:</span></strong><span> Sembcorp, Keppel</span></p> <p><strong><span>Digital infrastructure:</span></strong><span> Keppel, Keppel DC REIT</span></p> <p><strong><span>AI and semiconductor manufacturing:</span></strong><span> AEM, UMS</span></p> <p><strong><span>Engineering and electrification:</span></strong><span> ST Engineering, CSE Global</span></p> <p><strong><span>Advanced manufacturing and exports:</span></strong><span> Yangzijiang Shipbuilding</span></p> <p><span>The common thread is that Singapore’s growth story is increasingly being supported by <strong>AI investment, power demand, advanced manufacturing and industrial capacity</strong>, rather than consumption or exports alone.</span></p> <p><strong ><em><span>Want to explore further?</span></em></strong><em ><span> Browse our </span></em><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/theme/e389f075-11c6-4da4-b10c-19f2ea03038b" data-id="e389f075-11c6-4da4-b10c-19f2ea03038b" data-type="InvestmentTheme"><em><span>Singapore Stocks</span></em></a><em ><span> shortlist for more locally listed opportunities, or visit our </span></em><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/theme/1950e0d4-34e8-417f-bd16-345317407ec4" data-id="1950E0D434E8417FBD16345317407EC4" data-type="InvestmentTheme"><em><span>Singapore REITs</span></em></a><em ><span> shortlist for income-focused exposure across industrial, logistics, retail and data-centre real estate.</span></em></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>What are the risks?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This is not a single trade, and the risks differ across the group.</span></p> <p><span>Investors should watch:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Long timelines:</span></strong><span> the western-island plan remains a blueprint and could take decades to materialise.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AI-capex risk:</span></strong><span> weaker global AI spending could hurt semiconductor and data-centre demand.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Power constraints:</span></strong><span> higher electricity costs or delays in new capacity could slow investment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Cyclicality:</span></strong><span> Yangzijiang, AEM and UMS remain sensitive to global industrial and semiconductor cycles.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Execution risk:</span></strong><span> large infrastructure projects can face delays, cost overruns or lower returns.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Valuation:</span></strong><span> some Singapore industrial and technology names have already rerated.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Company-specific concentration:</span></strong><span> smaller firms such as AEM, UMS and CSE can be more exposed to a narrow customer base or project mix.</span></p> <p><span>The bigger message is that the NDR was not only about household support. It also reinforced a longer-term question for investors: <strong>Which Singapore companies are already positioned for the next phase of power, AI and industrial investment?</strong></span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>Quality</span> <span>All ideas</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 26 August, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Iran and Oman discuss maritime joint corridor in SoH</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Stocks bounce as market awaits Nvidia earnings tonight</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar slips on softer yields; NZD, AUD outperform as USDJPY nears 160</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong>Brent crude drops below $89, down ~4%, lowest in over a week</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Long end yield outperforms swaps, credited to the “Bessent Put”</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong></span><span>, with talks aimed at a permanent traffic and security framework. Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran to support diplomacy, Qatar said its mediation continues, and oil prices eased as new U.S. measures on Iran were milder than expected, stopping short of secondary sanctions. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Russian agency RIA reported that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal</span></strong></span><span> that would include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The S&P CoreLogic Case</span></strong></span>‑<span><strong><span>Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the fastest since June 2025 and above the 1.7% forecast, but real prices fell for the 13th month as 3.5% inflation outpaced gains. Chicago (6.9%), New York (4.8%), and Cleveland (4.1%) led increases, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%), and Denver (-1.2%) declined.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.2% but down from 0.4%</span></strong></span><span> in Q1. Exports rose 2.0%, outpacing 1.5% import growth, while domestic demand edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% fall. Investment stayed weak, with gross fixed capital formation down 0.2%, as machinery and equipment fell 1.4% and construction rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q1.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>China’s budget spending rose 1.3% year-on-year to CNY 16.29 trillion in Jan–Jul 2026</span></strong></span><span>, with central outlays up 6.2% and local spending up 0.5%. Healthcare (+9.8%) and social security/employment (+7%) led increases, while energy/environment, agriculture, culture/tourism, transport, and urban/rural spending declined.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Canada imposed 15%–50% tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. imports </span></strong></span><span>after trade talks collapsed, while the U.S. plans 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts, and steel from January 1, 2027. Markets cut Bank of Canada rate-hike expectations despite higher energy prices.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> US equities advanced as technology led and oil's decline eased inflation fears. S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,677.28, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow Jones added 0.3% to 53,577.40. Nvidia surged 2.2%, snapping its longest losing streak since 2022. Moderna jumped 14.4%, the largest single-stock gain in the S&P 500. Crypto-linked names <strong>Robinhood and Coinbase also outperformed, gaining 8% and 4% respectively. Energy was the key laggard. </strong>In after-hours trading, Intuit fell ~10% after issuing a full-year earnings and revenue forecast well below consensus. Semtech surged ~3.3% after guiding Q3 EPS of $1.02–$1.08 versus the 73-cent estimate. Heico rose ~2.3% on a Q3 net sales beat.</li> <li><strong>EU:</strong> European equities were broadly steady on Tuesday. The pound rose to the top of the G10 FX pile, with gilts slipping modestly. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham's plans to devolve more government functions outside London are generating expectations of increased dealmaking activity in regional financial centres such as Manchester. Gold Fields outperformed on the Johannesburg bourse, rising as much as 1.6% after its interim dividend more than doubled to 16.25 rand per share versus 7.00 rand in the prior comparable period.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities dipped on Tuesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge falling 0.4%, as investors cut technology exposure ahead of Nvidia's earnings. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Advantest were among the largest drags. The Kospi opened Wednesday down 0.2% at 6,727.25. Markets are set for a modest recovery this morning, buoyed by the sharp overnight decline in crude oil and a rebound in US chip stocks.<strong> Alibaba ADRs rose 1.5% after reports that founder Jack Ma purchased more than HK$600 million worth of the company's Hong Kong-listed shares.</strong> The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.1% on Tuesday. Chinese stocks are approaching their worst relative performance versus the S&P 500 on record, weighed by the Xi tax clawback campaign. The Bank of Korea is expected to decide on a potential back-to-back rate hike on Thursday, with a slim majority of economists forecasting another increase. Taiwan's stock exchange announced tighter rules on settlement defaults. MSCI Asia Pacific futures point to a slightly positive open.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Wednesday (26 Aug) — </span><span><strong><em><span class="underline; ">Nvidia</span></em></strong></span><span>, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP, Haidilao, Li Auto</span></li> <li><span>Thursday (27 Aug) — Marvell, IREN, Affirm </span></li> <li><span>Friday (28 Aug) — BYD, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD </span></strong></span><span>weakened modestly on Tuesday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.1% to 1,192.82 as lower oil prices and falling US Treasury yields supported most G10 currencies.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> stayed elevated at 159.19 after testing 159.49, keeping focus on the 160 line.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUD</span></strong></span><span> edged higher against most G10 crosses after RBA minutes from the Aug. 10–11 meeting showed the board discussed whether to raise or hold rates, ultimately deciding to wait for more data but pledging to hike again if needed. <strong>AUDUSD </strong>closed up 0.18% at 0.7163.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong></span><span> rose modestly to 1.1675 (+0.09%), supported by broad dollar softness but constrained by sharply higher European natural gas prices, which analysts see as a headwind to the <strong>EUR</strong>’s recent rally. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>GBPUSD </span></strong></span><span>climbed to 1.3649 (+0.12%), yet technicals now flag stretched overbought conditions and a potential near</span>‑<span>term pullback as daily momentum gauges, including slow stochastics, start to roll over.</span></li> <li><span>Markets now look to Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for policy signals, even as EM FX continues to hold up despite higher US yields.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> settled below $89 a barrel, down nearly 4% on the day and the lowest in over a week, as Iran-Oman diplomatic talks on an "interim framework" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted de-escalation hopes. WTI settled just above $82 and extended declines in Asian hours to trade near $81/bbl. Brent has now fallen from a high of ~$95 last Friday, a decline of roughly $6 in two sessions.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>traded around $4,660 an ounce, close to a three-month high struck in the prior session after briefly spiking to nearly $4,700 intraday on Tuesday. Gold has gained more than 7% over the past week, driven by the Treasury's expanded bond buyback programme reviving US fiscal concerns and dollar weakness.</span></li> <li><span>SHFE top-20 brokers boosted aggregate net-short copper positions to 22,752 contracts on Tuesday, the highest level in recent weeks, reflecting caution on the demand outlook. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Yields </span></strong><span>fell 5–7 basis points across the curve as crude oil's decline eased inflation concerns. The 10-year yield fell 6bps to 4.639% and the 30-year fell 5.8bps to 5.171%. The long end continued to outperform swaps, a dynamic attributed to the "Bessent Put" following the Treasury's 19 August expanded buyback announcement. The 30-year swap spread narrowed to its tightest since February.</span></li> <li><span>The US Treasury's 2-year note auction drew 4.204%, stopping through the 4.208% when-issued yield, indicating solid demand and helping anchor the front end. Traders also trimmed wagers on Fed rate hikes over the next year following the oil-driven inflation relief.</span></li> <li><span>Japan's upcoming bond auctions — a 10-year sale on 1 September and a 30-year on 3 September — are being watched closely as a potential source of global yield volatility. Poor demand at either auction could ricochet into US Treasuries, complicating Bessent's efforts to subdue long-end yields. JGB futures were down 11 ticks to 126.48 in overnight trading, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield at 2.89%.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold pauses after powerful four-day rally</h1> <p>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points</h3> <ul> <li><span>Gold pauses after a powerful four-day rally, having gained around USD 350 before reaching a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700. </span></li> <li><span>Investor demand has recently returned, with ETF holdings rising by around 60 tonnes in August while hedge funds have lifted their COMEX net long to an 11-month high. </span></li> <li><span>The latest rebound has been supported by technical momentum buying underpinned by renewed fiscal and debt concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand and the potential for renewed dollar weakness. </span></li> <li><span>Consolidation would be healthy after the recent surge, with USD 4,770 the next major resistance area, while the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519 provides initial support.<br /> <br /> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span>Gold steadied after a four-day rally that lifted prices by around USD 350, with some consolidation emerging after the metal hit a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700 during the Asian session. <strong data-start="194" data-end="265">Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.</strong> The limited weakness seen so far today appears primarily driven by profit-taking following the sharp run higher, together with a continued recovery in the dollar. The <span data-start="433" data-end="495">Dollar Index has now recouped more than half of the losses</span> suffered following last week’s US Treasury buyback announcement. The greenback received additional support after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would seek to cut Iran off from the global financial system, underscoring the dollar’s central role in global trade and finance while also reinforcing its traditional haven appeal.<br /> <br /> </span> <p><span>Investor demand has strengthened noticeably. So far this month, total gold ETF holdings have risen by around 60 tonnes, putting August on track for the strongest monthly inflow since last September, while hedge funds have boosted their net long position in COMEX gold futures to an 11-month high, and as per the chart below the highest since January if we broaden the focus to include the "Other Reportables" category. Both developments highlight how renewed momentum, a technical breakout and heightened political, fiscal and financial concerns can quickly translate into stronger demand for bullion.<br /> <br /> </span><span >The drivers that have brought traders and investors back to gold have not gone away and we believe they are likely to remain supportive in the coming months. These include concerns about US fiscal sustainability and elevated debt levels, the prospect of renewed dollar weakness, central-bank demand and continued geopolitical uncertainty. In the near term, however, attention may shift towards consolidation, with bond-yield developments and signals from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium likely to provide direction.<br /> <br /> </span><em >The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.</em></p> <p><span>After such a rapid advance, an orderly rally would arguably be healthier than another sharp acceleration. It allows investors and traders to build or reduce exposure without having to chase the market higher. Vertical moves tend to encourage hurried decision-making, while also increasing the risk of positioning becoming stretched and triggering a sharper correction when momentum eventually fades.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>From a technical perspective, resistance is seen around USD 4,770, an area that combines the 50% retracement of the January-to-June correction with the May local highs. Initial support is at the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,519, followed by USD 4,410.<br /> <br /> <h3 data-section-id="xd3v6l" data-start="48" data-end="95">What could challenge the bullish narrative?</h3> <p data-start="97" data-end="904">The renewed strength in gold does not come without risks. A sustained rebound in the dollar may remove an important source of support. Likewise, a more hawkish-than-expected message from Jackson Hole, reduced expectations for future Fed easing, or signs that US fiscal concerns are beginning to ease could trigger profit-taking after the recent sharp rally. Improving geopolitical conditions could also reduce haven demand, while increasingly stretched speculative positioning raises the risk that even a relatively modest change in the macro backdrop could produce a deeper correction. Technically, a failure to hold the breakout, particularly a move back below the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519, may weaken the current bullish momentum.</p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold investment demand through ETFs and futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold with key technical levels - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot gold 5-year chart - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>24 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-18-august-2026-24082026" data-id="47A78E5C9385496996F77887089CAE50" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 18 August 2026</a><br /> 21 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-weather-war-and-debt-broaden-the-commodity-rally-21082026" data-id="0F6FF5F15A1647ABAADBA369BCD582C0" data-type="Article">Commodities Weekly Weather war and debt broaden the commodity rally</a><br /> 20 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/when-bond-markets-need-support-hard-assets-start-to-look-harder-20082026" data-id="DBC9587B67EB44B0A7D674E94D15FC5B" data-type="Article">When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder</a><br /> 18 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-versus-gold-what-an-old-macro-signal-is-telling-us-now-18082026" data-id="88DCED466E324294A33AD16757131CBE" data-type="Article">Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now</a><br /> 17 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-rate-hike-risks-fade-despite-elevated-bond-yields-17082026" data-id="722ACAF3DB0D44559BB74037F9C0B416" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>USA</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>