Market wrap and a big US mid-term preview.</h1> <article> <h1>Market wrap and a big US mid-term preview.</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:15:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The short and the very long of it for the US mid-term elections.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/market-wrap-and-the-big-us-mid-term-preview-like-no-other/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app. </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> </p> <ul> <li>The <span><a href="https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/ejjcb9dbw6bw6ga3/2026_10_USMidterms_CPH3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">slide deck for the US mid-terms</a></span>.</li> </ul> <p> <ul> <li>Specific <strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/the-four-places-where-the-midterms-will-decide-the-fate-of-data-centers-deb9f534?mod=WSJ_home_feature_2_pos_3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US mid-term elections where the issue of data centers is in play</a></strong>.</li> </ul> </p> <ul> <li>The SCMP on <span><a href="https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3372177/what-quentin-tarantinos-reservoir-dogs-says-about-us-midterms" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US tipping culture gone out of control</a></span> - also whether it is a part of the creeping cost of living problem in the US and whether it is getting picked up in official measures of inflation. I have noticed this on travels back to the US in recent years - very annoying. Shouldn't businesses pay their workers a living wage rather than harassing customers?</li> <li>Thoughtful Saxo Market Call podcast listener Mat Casey sent in his own <span><a href="https://beltwayalpha.substack.com/p/thoughts-from-the-road?r=4x7ix&utm_medium=ios" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vibe check of the American voter</a></span>, especially on the issue of AI in his travels across America.</li> <li>Michael McNair ponders whether <span><a href="https://x.com/michaeljmcnair/status/2116022601000616255" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Binance hack could have been due to an employee compromised by blackmail linked to AI hacking tools</a></span>. In other words, nasty operators can gain access to the corporate and other systems by hacking individuals' lives to use their online activity to blackmail them into surrendering their credentials.</li> </ul> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Up on average, down by weight - Options Brief - 30 October 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Most stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 still fell, dragged down by its largest names. After the close Amazon and Intel added to the damage. One option gauge now points the other way.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Most stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 still fell, because the losses sat in its largest names, and after the close Amazon and Intel added to them.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.20 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.03) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.210</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p>Thursday split the market by weight. The S&P 500 fell <strong>0.30%</strong> to <strong>7,720.39</strong> while its equal-weighted version rose <strong>1.21%</strong>, because the losses sat in a handful of the largest names. Alphabet fell <strong>12.64%</strong> on its results, and after the close Amazon fell about <strong>7%</strong> and Intel about <strong>23%</strong>. Options indicatively price <strong>0.64%</strong> for today’s expiry, about <strong>1.9</strong> points below what time decay alone would have left from Wednesday’s reading, so in our view the option market took a little premium out of the week after Alphabet’s gap rather than adding to it.</p> <p>Alphabet shows what the options were pricing. It was priced for <strong>5.5%</strong> and moved <strong>12.6%</strong>, the largest multiple of the season on our scorecard, and its implied-volatility rank then fell <strong>43.2</strong> points, in our view because the event was over. Amazon went into its own report priced for <strong>7.7%</strong>, and its late-trade fall of about <strong>7%</strong> was close to that, before today’s session.</p> <p>The reading that cuts the other way is correlation. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, rose <strong>7.24%</strong> to <strong>13.78</strong>, the <strong>96th</strong> percentile of our store, while dispersion, which prices how far index members are expected to move apart, fell back to its median. In our view the market may now price the next surprise to travel across the index more than it did on Thursday.</p> <p>The headline volatility gauge rose to <strong>17.20</strong>. The index has used <strong>71%</strong> of the range priced for this week, down from <strong>88%</strong> a session earlier, with one session left. Single-name volatility drained further, yesterday’s single-name flow carried no readable direction, and Treasuries rallied despite third-quarter growth of <strong>3.4%</strong>.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Most of the index rose on Thursday and the index still fell. The S&P 500 lost <strong>0.30%</strong> to <strong>7,720.39</strong> while its equal-weighted version gained <strong>1.21%</strong> and small caps <strong>0.97%</strong>. The difference was a handful of the largest names.</p> <p>Alphabet fell <strong>12.64%</strong> on results showing negative free cash flow of <strong>9.1 billion dollars</strong>, and Amazon slid <strong>4.25%</strong> into its own report. After the close Amazon fell about <strong>7%</strong> on elevated spending and negative free cash flow, and Intel about <strong>23%</strong> on a weak outlook.</p> <p>The data ran the other way. Third-quarter growth came in at an annualised <strong>3.4%</strong>, the fastest in a year, and September’s personal consumption expenditures price index rose <strong>3.6%</strong> on the year, yet Treasuries rallied along the curve as tech sold off. The European Central Bank held rates, and this morning the Bank of Japan held at <strong>1.25%</strong> while raising its inflation forecasts.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Thursday 29 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,720.39</strong>, down <strong>0.30%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,402.51</strong>, down <strong>1.38%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,348.24</strong>, down <strong>0.25%</strong>. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>1.21%</strong>, health care <strong>2.40%</strong>, while software fell <strong>3.52%</strong> and Caterpillar nearly <strong>10%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.77%</strong> to <strong>649.12</strong>, the DAX <strong>1.31%</strong> to <strong>26,039.68</strong> and the CAC 40 <strong>1.05%</strong>. The FTSE 100 rose <strong>0.3%</strong>. Haleon fell as much as <strong>15%</strong> after cutting its growth outlook.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Friday morning):</strong> the Kospi fell <strong>4.64%</strong> to <strong>5,662.14</strong> by <strong>05:00 CET</strong> while the Hang Seng rose <strong>1.64%</strong>. Tech names took the brunt of the Intel and Amazon results.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> WTI traded at <strong>103.21</strong>. Gold eased to <strong>4,003.40</strong> and silver to <strong>51.35</strong>. The two-year Treasury yield fell ten basis points on Thursday to <strong>4.60%</strong> and a further two overnight, and the ten-year trades at <strong>4.92%</strong>, while high-yield spreads widened <strong>10</strong> basis points to <strong>323</strong>. Bitcoin traded near <strong>77,700</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Overnight (05:00 CET Friday):</strong> Nasdaq 100 futures <strong>28,957.25</strong>, down <strong>2.05%</strong>, and S&P 500 futures <strong>7,679.25</strong>, down <strong>0.97%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> transitioning, the VIX at <strong>17.20</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>151.03</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 30 October 2026, which carries Thursday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure. Illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The equity measures rose and the cross-asset ones eased. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, gained <strong>7.24%</strong> to <strong>13.78</strong>, the <strong>96th</strong> percentile of the <strong>107</strong> sessions in our store. The Nasdaq gauge rose <strong>5.89%</strong> to <strong>25.18</strong>. Dispersion, which prices how far index members are expected to move apart, fell <strong>4.31%</strong> to <strong>36.63</strong>, back to its median. In our view that pairing may be the day in one line: the spread between names that options had paid for arrived in Alphabet, and the premium for it came out once it had.</p> <p>The headline gauge added <strong>1.71%</strong> to <strong>17.20</strong>, the <strong>77th</strong> percentile, and the front day <strong>3.57%</strong> to <strong>13.62</strong>. The bond gauge eased <strong>1.06%</strong> to <strong>93.55</strong>, and gold volatility at <strong>22.73</strong> sits at the <strong>11th</strong> percentile.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX3M/VIX holds at <strong>1.13</strong>, so the curve stays in contango. VXN/VIX rose to <strong>1.46</strong> from <strong>1.41</strong>, and VIX1D/VIX to <strong>0.79</strong>.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> November reads <strong>19.21</strong> in overnight trade, above December at <strong>19.01</strong>, which on that quote inverts the front of the futures curve. Put-call parity on the 18 November options, read later in the night, returns <strong>18.66</strong>, below December. These are two timestamps, not a roll, so we draw no session comparison.</p> <p><strong>Tails.</strong> SKEW rose <strong>1.54%</strong> to <strong>151.03</strong>, above its <strong>145.70</strong> median.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>The index measures above rose, but the names drained further. On a common set of <strong>523</strong> underlyings the median implied-volatility rank fell to <strong>39.3</strong> from <strong>44.0</strong> and the mean to <strong>41.4</strong> from <strong>47.0</strong>, with the median percentile at <strong>49.2</strong>. The comparison spans two sessions, because no reading was collected on the morning of 29 October.</p> <p>Alphabet lost <strong>43.2</strong> points of rank to <strong>24.4</strong> and Microsoft <strong>25.0</strong> to <strong>23.9</strong>. Both reported on Wednesday evening. One share price fell <strong>12.64%</strong> and the other <strong>0.16%</strong>, yet the ranks fell almost together. In our view what the options had been pricing was the event, and the event was over.</p> <p>Amazon went the other way, up <strong>5.8</strong> points to <strong>79.2</strong>, the <strong>98th</strong> percentile of its year. That reading was taken at Thursday’s close, before its results.</p> <p>At the index end the broad market fund sits at a rank of <strong>13.2</strong> and the small-cap fund at <strong>11.6</strong>, against <strong>40.7</strong> for the Nasdaq 100 fund. By group, energy is richest at a median of <strong>59.0</strong> and metals cheapest at <strong>17.7</strong>.</p> <p><em>Implied-volatility rank and percentile from the Saxo screener, read at 02:23 CET on 30 October 2026. Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day Thursday 29 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> carried no readable direction. Alphabet dominated, as a structure in which buying and selling offset, which in our view may reflect an existing book being moved rather than a fresh view.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> was readable in one place only, demand for long-dated Treasury exposure. Nine of the ten categories showed no direction.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range priced for the week around Friday 23 October’s close for six markets, with the nearest listed strike at each bound and where Thursday’s close sits inside it. Illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The Friday-close snapshot priced <strong>137.05</strong> points for the S&P 500 this week, <strong>1.80%</strong> around Friday’s <strong>7,623.68</strong>, a band from <strong>7,486.63</strong> to <strong>7,760.73</strong>. Four sessions of five are done. Thursday’s close at <strong>7,720.39</strong> has used <strong>71%</strong> of that band upward, down from <strong>88%</strong> a session earlier, and the parity forward on today’s expiry, <strong>7,683.80</strong>, would put it nearer <strong>44%</strong>.</p> <p>The Nasdaq 100 fund has given back more, <strong>51%</strong> used from <strong>98%</strong>. Gold has used <strong>22%</strong> upward, energy <strong>26%</strong> downward and the bitcoin fund <strong>15%</strong> downward. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month rather than a week, and sits <strong>48%</strong> below its anchor.</p> <p>One session remains, and the top of the band sits <strong>40</strong> points above Thursday’s close. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>10:00 CET</strong> German third-quarter growth, then at <strong>11:00 CET</strong> euro-zone third-quarter growth and Italian October inflation.</li> <li><strong>13:30 CET</strong> Canadian growth, and at <strong>14:00 CET</strong> German October inflation.</li> <li><strong>14:45 CET</strong> the Chicago purchasing managers’ index.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, BP, General Dynamics, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia.</li> <li><strong>Next week:</strong> Apple and Palantir on Monday, AMD on Tuesday, Novo Nordisk on Wednesday, the 3 November vote and payrolls.</li> </ul> <p>The US stays on summer time until Sunday, so today’s cash session runs <strong>14:30</strong> to <strong>21:00 CET</strong> and today’s expiry settles at that close. Today is also the last session of October.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Nineteen of the twenty-one names have reported, and Wednesday evening produced both ends of the table. Alphabet was priced for <strong>5.5%</strong> and moved <strong>12.6%</strong>, <strong>2.3x</strong> what the options expected and the largest multiple of the season. Microsoft was priced for <strong>4.7%</strong> and moved <strong>0.2%</strong>.</p> <p>Amazon was priced for <strong>7.7%</strong> against an eight-report average of <strong>6.2%</strong>. It was down about <strong>7%</strong> in late trade after its results, close to the priced move; its scorecard figure lands after today’s session.</p> <p>Two names remain. Apple reports on Monday priced for <strong>3.5%</strong> against <strong>2.5%</strong>, <strong>1.4x</strong> its own history and the richest on the board, on a rank of <strong>56</strong>, so in our view its volatility is ordinary for its year while its event premium is not. Novo Nordisk reports on Wednesday at <strong>6.1%</strong> against <strong>5.0%</strong>, up <strong>0.3</strong> points overnight.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> S&P 500 options price <strong>49.10</strong> points, <strong>0.64%</strong>, for today’s expiry, which settles at the <strong>21:00 CET</strong> close. Read before the US open, so indicative. The one-day gauge at <strong>13.62</strong> implies about <strong>0.86%</strong>, a one-sigma figure rather than an expected move, so in our view the two do not disagree.</li> <li><strong>Event repricing:</strong> on Wednesday the same expiry priced <strong>88.30</strong> points with three sessions to run, and decay alone would have left about <strong>51.0</strong>. Today’s <strong>49.10</strong> sits about <strong>1.9</strong> points below that, so the option market took a little premium out of the week after Alphabet’s gap rather than adding to it.</li> <li><strong>Next week:</strong> the same-morning Quick Take puts about <strong>1.64%</strong> on the 6 November expiry, a window holding Apple, the 3 November vote and payrolls. The parity forward on today’s expiry, <strong>7,683.80</strong>, already sits about <strong>0.47%</strong> below Thursday’s close, which in our view may mean much of the late-trade reaction to Amazon and Intel is in the index before the open.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation rose <strong>7.24%</strong> to <strong>13.78</strong>, the <strong>96th</strong> percentile of our store, while dispersion fell back to its median. In our view the market may now price the next surprise to travel across the index more than it did on Thursday, when the equal-weighted index rose <strong>1.21%</strong> against the headline’s fall.</li> </ul> <p>In our view today tests whether Thursday’s split survives a second day: an equal-weighted market that rose while the largest names fell, and an option market that, on the correlation gauge, now leans the other way. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/up-a-fifth-still-the-cheapest-session---options-brief---28-october-2026-28102026" data-id="DC71C9836797480A977763657BECF300" data-type="Article">Up a fifth still the cheapest session - Options Brief - 28 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/premium-leaves-a-fed-week---options-brief---27-october-2026-27102026" data-id="FAB18354E9B54C1386F39E0E9443323A" data-type="Article">Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---now-amazon-and-intel-spook-us-tech---30-october-2026-30102026" data-id="366C2ECB257A44F3AC24A6F9CA2D5D9A" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Now Amazon and Intel spook US tech - 30 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---alphabet-revenue-miss-spooks-markets---29-october-2026-29102026" data-id="294929DD23F44E1E85E317259296B788" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Alphabet revenue miss spooks markets - 29 October 2026</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Amazon earnings: why strong growth was not enough</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li > <strong>Cloud growth accelerates:</strong> Amazon Web Services is booming, but high expectations make even strong results insufficient. </li> <li > <strong>Spending raises questions:</strong> AI investments are consuming cash, leaving investors waiting for clearer financial returns. </li> <li > <strong>Retail sends mixed signals:</strong> slower online sales and advertising growth add uncertainty, despite improving profitability. </li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Amazon has spent years building a business that delivers almost everything. Now investors are asking when its enormous investments will start delivering more cash.</p> <p><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Third-Quarter-Results/" target="_blank">On 29 October 2026, the company reported strong third-quarter</a> cloud growth and record operating margins. Yet its shares fell around 7% in after-hours trading as spending exceeded expectations and its core retail business slowed.</p> <p>The message was clear: growing quickly is no longer enough when the bill for future growth keeps getting bigger.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The cloud is growing, but so is the bill</strong></h3> <p>Amazon Web Services (AWS), which rents computing power and data storage to businesses, remains Amazon's biggest profit engine.</p> <p>Revenue jumped 39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Demand for artificial intelligence is a major driver, with customers including Anthropic and OpenAI requiring enormous computing capacity.</p> <p>Yet investors were not celebrating.</p> <p>Amazon expects to spend around 220 billion USD on infrastructure and equipment this year, with spending rising further in 2027.</p> <p>That creates an important distinction between profits and cash.</p> <p>Amazon's operating profits are improving, but free cash flow, the money left after running and investing in the business, has turned negative. Over the past year, Amazon spent roughly 42 billion USD more than it generated after investment costs.</p> <p>This does not necessarily signal a weak business. New data centres can generate revenue for years. But their construction requires substantial cash today, while future returns remain uncertain.</p> <p>For investors, the question is shifting from how fast AI grows to how profitably it grows.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Retail offers a second reality check</strong></h3> <p>Amazon is more than a cloud provider. Its enormous online marketplace remains central to the business.</p> <p>Online store sales increased just 2%, while advertising growth also slowed. Amazon partly attributes the weakness to moving its Prime Day shopping event into the previous quarter.</p> <p>That makes comparisons less straightforward, but does not eliminate concerns about consumer spending.</p> <p>There is encouraging news beneath the surface. Faster deliveries, greater efficiency and improving retail margins suggest Amazon continues to benefit from its enormous scale.</p> <p>This matters because profitable retail operations help support investment elsewhere.</p> <p>The broader industry faces a similar challenge. Microsoft and Alphabet are expanding cloud infrastructure, while chipmakers, memory suppliers and electricity providers benefit from the construction boom.</p> <p>But higher spending by technology giants does not automatically mean higher returns for their shareholders. Suppliers receive orders today. Infrastructure owners must earn back their investments over time.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Risks: when growth becomes expensive</strong></h3> <p>Three risks deserve attention.</p> <p>First, AI demand could disappoint relative to the capacity being built. Second, rising equipment and energy costs could squeeze profitability. Third, weaker consumer spending could reduce the financial flexibility provided by retail.</p> <p>The warning signs are slowing cloud growth, persistently negative free cash flow and weaker retail margins.</p> <p>For investors, the useful exercise is tracking whether cloud profits and cash generation eventually catch up with investment spending, rather than reacting to one quarter's share-price movement.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The real test is still ahead</strong></h3> <p>Amazon's results capture a wider shift in the technology industry. For years, investors rewarded companies for expanding quickly and capturing new markets. Today, they increasingly want evidence that expansion creates lasting financial value.</p> <p>Amazon has reasons for confidence. Its cloud business is accelerating, retail profitability is improving, and demand for computing infrastructure remains strong. But the scale of its investments leaves less room for disappointment.</p> <p>The coming quarters will reveal whether today's spending translates into stronger earnings and, eventually, healthier cash flow.</p> <p>Amazon has become exceptionally good at delivering packages to customers. Its next challenge is proving it can deliver equally impressive returns on the capital it invests.</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodity weekly: October underscores a year of dramatic sector rotation</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 07:50:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong></strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong> </strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Key Points:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>October masks another major sector rotation</strong>: The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a nearly unchanged month, with strong energy gains offsetting losses across grains and precious metals. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Energy dominates amid geopolitical tensions</strong>: Middle East supply disruptions and tight refined product markets have supported crude oil and diesel, while European natural gas has surged by 38%. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Metals and grains face mounting pressure</strong>: Rising bond yields, growth concerns and speculative long liquidation have weighed on precious metals, while harvest pressure and position unwinding have hit grains. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Dramatic annual reversals highlight diversification benefits</strong>: Energy has surged almost 100% this year after losing 10% in 2025, while precious metals have fallen 11% following last year's 80% rally, underscoring the value of broad commodity exposure.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return (BCOM TR) Index, which tracks a diversified basket of 25 major commodity futures across energy, metals and agriculture, is heading for a nearly unchanged October. Beneath the subdued headline performance, however, the month has been characterised by a significant rotation between sectors, with strong gains in energy and, to a lesser extent, soft commodities offsetting losses across grains and precious metals, while industrial metals have recorded a small decline.<br /> <br /> <p><strong><span>Energy has once again been the clear outperformer</span></strong><span>, supported by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent supply disruptions and elevated risk premiums across crude oil and refined products. Brent and WTI crude have led the gains, alongside US diesel, where tight inventories, constrained export availability and deferred refinery maintenance have compounded supply concerns. European natural gas has surged by around 38%, reflecting heightened supply-security concerns and the region's continued vulnerability to disruptions in global LNG flows. Importantly, European natural gas is not included in the BCOM index.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Commodities October returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Elsewhere, <strong>agriculture has delivered a mixed performance</strong>, with sugar among the strongest gainers, while grains have suffered renewed selling pressure as the speculative long positions built up during August continue to unwind. Wheat and corn have been weighed down by harvest-related supply pressure, shifting trade expectations and the liquidation of previously elevated speculative positions. Sugar, meanwhile, has benefited from weather-related supply concerns and strong speculative interest, although the recent sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real has weighed on several major Brazilian agricultural exports, including sugar, soybeans, coffee and cotton. A weaker real improves the competitiveness of Brazilian produce in international markets, adding downward pressure to US dollar-denominated prices.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Precious metals have experienced an ongoing sharp reversal</span></strong><span>, with silver and platinum among October's biggest losers, while gold has also weakened. The sector has faced pressure from spikes in bond yields and shifting interest-rate expectations, which have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. At the same time, concerns about global growth and the sustainability of AI-related investment have weighed disproportionately on silver and platinum, given their industrial demand exposure. Elevated speculative positioning following earlier rallies has amplified the correction, with technical breaks triggering additional long liquidation and momentum-driven selling.</span></p> <p><span>Industrial metals, meanwhile, have held up relatively well despite concerns about slowing economic growth, softer Chinese demand and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Copper has been particularly influenced by rising exchange-monitored inventories and speculation over potential US tariffs on refined imports, while longer-term demand expectations linked to electrification and infrastructure investment continue to provide some underlying support.</span></p> <p><span>The scale of this year's rotation is even more striking when viewed against last year's performance. Precious metals, which topped the commodity rankings in 2025 with gains of around 80%, have become this year's laggard, currently down approximately 11%. Conversely, energy, which lost around 10% last year, has surged by almost 100% year-to-date, driven primarily by war-related supply disruptions and sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.</span></p> <h3></h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Global gas prices and EU stockpiles - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"><span>These dramatic reversals highlight both the opportunities and risks associated with commodity investing. Individual commodity markets are driven by very different combinations of supply constraints, weather, geopolitics, inventory developments and investor positioning. <strong>In my opinion, </strong>t<strong>his strengthens the case for broad commodity exposure rather than relying on a narrow selection of markets</strong>, as diversification can help smooth the impact of sharp sector-specific reversals, even though it cannot eliminate the risk of losses across the asset class.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span>The broader lesson from 2026 is that commodity performance is rarely uniform. War has reshaped energy markets, weather and harvest cycles have influenced agriculture, while inflation, bond yields, growth expectations and speculative positioning have driven sharp adjustments in metals. With these forces likely to remain influential, sector rotation may continue to be as important as the overall direction of the commodity market.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>22 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-caught-between-ai-jitters-and-escalating-energy-risks-22102026" data-id="EDA07D3D4C1A407BBA0AC51BF5DF7844" data-type="Article">Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks</a><br /> 19 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-13-october-2026-19102026" data-id="C8D7FD8CD8AB4D1382D350D9B8E55D37" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026</a><br /> 16 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-gold-steadies-as-oil-tightness-and-growth-fears-divide-markets-16102026" data-id="7F6FE49A8C92482F93700E2D53DBD7CC" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets</a><br /> 15 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-when-falling-yields-stop-helping-stocks-15102026" data-id="AE423B21F92F4D13BC37638594FC5815" data-type="Article">Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks</a><br /> 14 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/recovering-middle-east-exports-fail-to-ease-crude-and-diesel-tightness-14102026" data-id="3AFE3972FD9549988A2EBBF24E35C4E5" data-type="Article">Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness</a><br /> 12 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/diesel-shortages-why-the-global-economy-has-more-to-fear-than-rising-petrol-prices-12102026" data-id="29C3D97E260D43EB8BFE0F88A1EF40FA" data-type="Article">Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Copper</span> <span>Mining</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Soybean</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Now Amazon and Intel spook US tech - 30 October 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 07:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Bank of Japan raises inflation forecasts, says 2% inflation target reached</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: Alphabet's record drop hit US stocks Thursday and AI-earnings worries have spread to Asia, while Europe held up better.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Front VIX futures held above spot overnight while Nasdaq futures fell after the results</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities fell with tech while Binance confirmed a major hack and froze funds</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil holds firm, silver slides as commodities see major sector rotation in October</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Yields drop on tech stock sell-off and despite strong US growth data</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: JPY choppy after Bank of Japan meeting. USD drops.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Ma</strong><strong>cro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The ECB kept rates unchanged in October 2026</strong>, warning high energy prices could fuel inflation and hurt growth, while underlying inflation is stable and second round effects are not a concern. The move followed reports President Lagarde plans to step down early; she said a hike was discussed but unanimously rejected.</li> <li><strong>The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25%</strong> as widely expected and raised its core inflation forecasts for fiscal 2027 by 0.2% to 2.6% from 2.4% and now says that it considers underlying inflation to have risen to be broadly consistent with its 2% target. The bank maintained guidance for further rate hikes as the market awaits Governor Ueda’s press conference this (Friday) morning.</li> <li><strong>The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September 2026</strong>, the fastest in six months, driven by higher energy costs. <strong>Core PCE</strong> was up 0.3% month-on-month. Year-on-year, headline PCE reached 3.6% and core 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.</li> <li><strong>The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2026</strong>, the fastest in a year and above forecasts. Growth was driven by a surge in private investment, strong consumer spending, higher government outlays, and inventory gains, while housing investment fell and net trade weighed on GDP.</li> <li><strong>US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 194,000</strong> in the week ending October 24, 2026, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims dropped to 1.701 million, the lowest in over three years, underscoring a strong labor market.</li> <li><strong>Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October 2026</strong>, down from 2.7% in September. The BoJ’s preferred core measure slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, below forecasts, after it raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest since 1995.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September 2026 from 2.5%</strong><strong> in August</strong>, with employment up, participation at 64.5%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rising to 1.19, indicating a tighter labor market.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year in September 2026</strong>, the slowest in three months and below forecasts, led by a jump in motor vehicle sales. Month-on-month, sales fell 0.7%, a second consecutive decline.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0745 – France Oct. Flash CPI</li> <li>0800 – Spain Oct. Flash CPI</li> <li>0855 – Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate / Change</li> <li>0900 – Germany Q3 GDP estimate</li> <li>1000 – Eurozone Q3 GDP estimate</li> <li>1000 – Italy Flash Oct. CPI </li> <li>1230 – Canada Aug. and Q3 GDP</li> <li>1300 – Germany Oct. Flash CPI</li> <li>1345 – Germany Oct. Chicago PMI</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>Top highlights for next week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Monday</strong>: Apple, Palantir</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: AMD</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Novo Nordisk</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> Equities snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% to 29,402, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720 and the Dow lost 0.3% to 52,343. Caterpillar fell nearly 10% on modest earnings. After hours,<strong> Intel dropped about </strong><strong>23</strong><strong>% on a weak Q4 outlook. Amazon fell about </strong><strong>7</strong><strong>% on elevated capex, </strong>negative free cash flow of $42.4bn over the past 12 months and slowing e-commerce growth. Starbucks slipped about 1.7% as international weakness outweighed a US comp beat.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> <strong>The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8%</strong> to 649.11, the DAX gained 1.3% to 26,040, the CAC 40 added 1.1% to 7,970 and the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10,722.<strong> Kongsberg jumped 13%, Adidas rose 5.8%, Sandoz gained 4.4% and Novartis 2.4%</strong>. Haleon fell as much as 15%, its worst day since listing in 2022, after cutting its organic growth outlook because a China regulatory change halted Centrum vitamin sales.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> <strong>The open looks tough.</strong> The Kospi fell about 4.5% to 5,662 as tech names took the brunt of the Intel and Amazon fallout. Nikkei futures point lower, with AI infrastructure suppliers such as Lasertec and Ibiden under pressure. The Hang Seng faces headwinds from mainland investors pulling back at the fastest pace in over five years, with net outflows of HK$24bn in October through Thursday. <strong>BYD missed Q3 profit estimates despite overseas sales more than doubling</strong>, and Geely did not reassure on its European export outlook. </li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.20 | VIX FUTURES: 19.210 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.03) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~05:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Thursday's damage was concentrated in large tech, and options markets priced it that way. <strong>The VIX rose only modestly to 17.20 while Nasdaq vol jumped almost 6%</strong>. After Intel and Amazon disappointed after the close, the front VIX future moved above December overnight. That inverts the front of the curve and leaves the November contract, which spans the 9 December Fed decision, carrying a building hump for hike risk. Implied dispersion eased as megacap earnings premium drained away, while SKEW firmed. </li> <li>Options price about 0.64% for today and 1.64% into 6 November, a window holding Apple, the 3 November vote and payrolls. MOVE eased as Treasuries rallied, so rates vol did not confirm the equity stress.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~77,964 +0.08% | ETHEREUM ~2,231 -0.87% | IBIT 45.71 -0.93% | ETHA 52.78 -1.53% | AS OF ~05:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Forced selling did the work overnight. Bitcoin dipped below USD 77,000 before steadying <strong>after Binance confirmed a major hack</strong> and froze more than USD 2.5bn of affected funds, and leveraged longs took most of the liquidations. </li> <li>The listed names had already turned lower with tech on Thursday. AI-exposed miners fell hardest, <strong>Iren </strong>and <strong>Cipher Digital</strong> each losing close to 9%, as Alphabet's capital spending revived doubts about hyperscaler demand for their data-centre capacity. </li> <li><strong>Strategy </strong>and <strong>Coinbase </strong>reported after the close: both beat on profit through crypto revaluation gains while revenue fell short, and Strategy announced its CFO is stepping down. Ether funds shed about USD 105m, a fourth straight outflow.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent is heading for another weekly gain, ending an already strong month on a firm note near USD 116.50. Prices remain supported by concerns that the US could resume military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, raising the risk of renewed escalation and supply disruptions. This comes despite separate reports of ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at securing a temporary peace agreement, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Silver continues to underperform gold, touching a fresh 11-month low below USD 51 and fully retracing its December–January rally. Despite oversold conditions, the risk of further long liquidation and momentum-driven selling remains. With gold holding above key support around USD 3,970, the XAUXAG ratio has climbed above 78, highlighting silver's relative weakness. Meanwhile, gold continues to attract demand from investors less sensitive to interest rate developments. Heading into the weekend, traders will watch whether the US technology sector selloff extends into today's session, potentially triggering broader deleveraging and liquidity-driven selling across markets, including precious metals.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> The BCOM Total Return Index trading flat on the month masks a major rotation between sectors. Energy continues to outperform, supported by Middle East supply disruptions, while grains and precious metals have suffered from harvest pressure, rising bond yields and speculative long liquidation. Silver, wheat, corn and US natural gas are among the biggest losers, while crude oil, diesel and sugar lead the gains. The year-to-date reversal is striking, with energy up almost 100% after losing 10% last year, while precious metals are down 11% following an 80% surge in 2025. These contrasting performances highlight the benefits of diversified commodity exposure, given the often dramatic swings across individual markets and sectors.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasuries rallied all along the curve </strong><strong>and the yield curve steepened </strong><strong>Thursday and overnight into Friday </strong>on another two marquee tech names spooking risk sentiment in the tech space, even as most US stocks rose Thursday.<strong> </strong>This was despite the strong US GDP estimate for Q3 and another week of near record low jobless claims data. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell ten basis points Thursday to a its lowest since mid-September at 4.60% and fell another two basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year yield yield fell eight basis points Thursday and bit more early Friday, trading 4.92%.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB is eying its lowest daily close </strong><strong>in almost three months today</strong>, trading six basis points lower at 2.78% as the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged Friday, but guided for further policy tightening after raising a key inflation forecast.</li> <li><strong>US high yield bonds didn’t enjoy the strength in the US Treasury market</strong>. The Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US Treasuries widened 10 basis points to 323 basis points.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar traded lower Thursday and into early Friday</strong><strong>, although it </strong><strong>bounced from</strong><strong> overnight lows by early trading hours in Europe</strong>. The drop in US tech stocks and especially the significant post-FOMC drop in US treasury yields may be the drivers. EURUSD traded 1.1183 early Friday after rising as high as 1.1215 in early hours Friday. Those highs came after touching a new 17-month low briefly at 1.1105 on the ECB announcement Thursday . </li> <li><strong>While EURUSD rebounded</strong><strong>, t</strong><strong>he ECB delivered no real surprises </strong><strong>Thursday </strong><strong>a</strong><strong>nd</strong><strong> the Euro remained soft</strong> against other European currencies, falling to a new low below 11.00 versus the Swedish krona, and also seeing new local lows versus the Swiss franc, pound sterling and Norwegian krone.</li> <li><strong>The JPY </strong><strong>saw a choppy session early Friday</strong>, surging after plunging global bond yields Thursday failed to support the currency. The Bank of Japan statement guiding for further rate hikes and raising a key inflation forecast failed to support the JPY, which fell back ahead of the Governor Ueda press conference early today (Friday). USDJPY trades 157.63, not much changed from late Thursday levels after dipping as low as 157.12.</li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI earnings: Big growth, bigger spending, tougher questions</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>AI demand remains strong, but the cost of growth is rising</span></strong><span>. Cloud, semiconductor and memory companies continue to report exceptional growth. However, soaring capital expenditure is shifting investor attention from revenue growth to cash flow, profitability and returns on investment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI infrastructure is still booming, but exceptional margins may be harder to sustain</span></strong><span>. Supply constraints are supporting strong earnings across chips, memory and storage. However, elevated profitability encourages capacity expansion, potentially increasing competition and pricing pressure over time.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The next phase of AI is adoption, but the productivity payoff remains largely unproven</span></strong><span>. Early monetisation is visible in advertising, cloud and enterprise software, but broad-based productivity gains have yet to emerge. For portfolios, this argues for financial resilience, valuation discipline and diversification beyond AI infrastructure into potential beneficiaries of adoption.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>The latest round of technology earnings has delivered a clear message: AI demand is not the problem. The challenge is increasingly about the cost of meeting that demand and how much of the growth eventually translates into profits and cash flow.</span></p> <p><span>Cloud providers are growing rapidly, semiconductor and memory companies are enjoying exceptional demand, and AI is beginning to generate revenues for software businesses.</span></p> <p><span>Yet strong results have not always been rewarded by investors. Higher spending, uncertain future margins and elevated valuations are making markets more selective.</span></p> <p><span>Here is what the latest results tell us about where the AI investment cycle stands.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Tech earnings: What the major companies reported</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Big Tech: Strong growth, rising investment commitments</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Microsoft:</span></strong><span> Revenue grew 19% year-on-year, with Azure revenue up 48%. The company generated $18.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow despite substantial infrastructure spending. Microsoft continues to demonstrate the benefits of combining cloud growth with an established enterprise customer base, although AI investment requirements remain significant.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Alphabet (Google):</span></strong><span> Revenue rose 25%, with Google Cloud revenue more than doubling to $30.7 billion. Search revenue grew 12%, showing resilience in its core advertising business. However, substantial capital spending pushed quarterly free cash flow into negative territory, reinforcing questions about the cost of AI expansion and its longer-term impact on Search economics.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Amazon:</span></strong><span> AWS revenue grew 39%, its fastest pace in nearly five years, while Amazon delivered a record operating margin of 13.9%. Yet expected 2026 capital spending of approximately $220 billion shows how expensive the cloud expansion has become. AWS growth is encouraging, but the returns on this investment will remain a key focus.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Meta:</span></strong><span> Revenue increased 26%, supported by 10% growth in advertising impressions and a 14% increase in average ad prices. AI is already improving its advertising business. However, quarterly capital spending reached nearly $35 billion, while free cash flow turned negative. Reported profitability was also affected by a substantial one-off litigation charge. The question is whether future AI benefits can justify increasingly large investments.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Semiconductors, memory and storage: Strong demand and exceptional profitability</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>TSMC:</span></strong><span> Revenue increased 41% in US-dollar terms, with a gross margin of 66.4%. Demand for advanced chips remains strong, reinforcing TSMC's importance in the AI supply chain. However, the strength of current margins also raises the bar for future earnings.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ASML:</span></strong><span> Quarterly revenue reached €11.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5%. Demand for advanced manufacturing equipment and productivity upgrades continues to improve, with customers discussing capacity needs extending several years into the future. This provides visibility, although the industry remains exposed to capital-spending cycles.</span></li> <li><strong><span>SK hynix:</span></strong><span> Revenue surged 328% year-on-year, while operating margin reached 80%, supported by strong AI memory demand and pricing. Long-term supply agreements provide greater visibility, but such exceptional profitability also raises questions about how margins might evolve as industry capacity expands.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Seagate:</span></strong><span> Revenue reached $4.2 billion and quarterly free cash flow increased to $1.5 billion, supported by strong demand for high-capacity storage. The results show how AI infrastructure spending is benefiting businesses beyond chipmakers. However, storage remains a cyclical industry, and strong current profitability may attract additional supply.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Enterprise technology: Growth opportunities, but not without disruption</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>ServiceNow:</span></strong><span> Subscription revenue increased 21%, while the company raised its 2026 AI annual contract value target to $1.7 billion. This provides evidence of enterprise customers paying for AI capabilities. However, concerns about forward contracted-revenue growth and the potential disruption of traditional software models weighed on investor sentiment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Intel:</span></strong><span> Revenue increased 21%, with data-centre and AI revenue growing 78%. However, a weaker outlook for the fourth quarter and continued weakness in the PC market highlighted the uneven recovery across its businesses. Strong AI demand alone is not enough to offset every operational challenge.</span></li> </ul> <span> <hr /> </span> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Four key themes from the earnings season</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span># 1: AI demand is strong, but the spending bill is getting much bigger</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The clearest positive takeaway is that demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate.</span></p> <p><span>Azure grew 48%, Google Cloud expanded 103%, and AWS grew 39%. These numbers suggest that the appetite for computing capacity remains substantial.</span></p> <p><span>However, meeting that demand is becoming increasingly expensive.</span></p> <p><span>Amazon expects to spend approximately $220 billion on capital expenditure this year, while Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are also committing substantial resources to expanding data centres and AI infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>This spending supports near-term growth across the semiconductor supply chain, but it creates longer-term financial obligations.</span></p> <p><span>Depreciation, equipment replacement, energy costs and financing requirements will increasingly matter. AI technology is also evolving rapidly, meaning infrastructure purchased today could become less competitive sooner than expected.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is not necessarily that AI demand disappoints. It is that the cost of supplying that demand rises faster than the profits it generates.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the distinction between companies capable of financing investment through recurring cash flow and those reliant on external capital is becoming more important.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span># 2: AI benefits are emerging, but monetisation remains uneven</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The earnings show that AI is starting to deliver commercial benefits, but not all companies are benefiting equally.</span></p> <p><span>Meta is already seeing improvements in advertising performance. Microsoft is monetising AI through cloud infrastructure and enterprise software. ServiceNow is reporting growing AI-related contract value.</span></p> <p><span>These are encouraging signs.</span></p> <p><span>However, higher AI revenues do not automatically translate into stronger profits. Some companies are generating incremental revenues from AI, while others are primarily absorbing higher infrastructure and development costs.</span></p> <p><span>Traditional software businesses face an additional complication. AI could improve their products and create new revenue streams, but AI agents may also reduce demand for some existing software functions or challenge per-user subscription pricing.</span></p> <p><span>This is creating a more complex environment for investors.</span></p> <p><span>The next question is not simply whether customers are using AI, but whether companies can capture enough economic value from that usage.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span># 3: AI infrastructure remains strong, but exceptional margins may become harder to sustain</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Some of the most impressive earnings this season came from companies supplying AI infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>TSMC reported gross margins above 66%, SK hynix achieved an 80% operating margin, and advanced semiconductor equipment and storage companies continue to benefit from strong demand.</span></p> <p><span>These results reflect genuine supply constraints and technological advantages.</span></p> <p><span>However, unusually high profitability also creates incentives for the industry to expand capacity.</span></p> <p><span>Over time, new manufacturing facilities, additional memory production and greater availability of computing infrastructure could reduce shortages and put pressure on pricing.</span></p> <p><span>That does not mean a downturn is imminent. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing is difficult to replicate, and supply constraints could persist longer than expected, particularly in highly specialised areas.</span></p> <p><span>But the investment equation is changing.</span></p> <p><span>When earnings expectations already assume exceptional growth and margins, companies need increasingly strong results to deliver positive surprises.</span></p> <p><span>The infrastructure boom can continue while share-price returns become more uneven. Strong demand does not guarantee that today's exceptional margins will last indefinitely.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span># 4: The next phase of AI is adoption — but the productivity payoff is still largely unproven</span></strong></h3> <p><span>So far, much of the AI investment cycle has focused on building capacity: chips, data centres, networking, memory and power infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>The next phase should increasingly focus on what businesses can actually achieve with that infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>AI has the potential to improve productivity across industries, from automating administrative work and customer service to accelerating research, software development and business processes.</span></p> <p><span>There are already examples of benefits in individual businesses. Meta's advertising improvements and growing enterprise AI software sales suggest that commercial use cases are developing.</span></p> <p><span>However, there is still limited evidence of broad, measurable productivity gains across the wider economy.</span></p> <p><span>Companies may be adopting AI tools, but implementation costs, employee training, workflow changes and the need for human oversight can delay financial benefits.</span></p> <p><span>Importantly, productivity gains do not always accrue to the company purchasing the AI tools. Some benefits may be passed on to customers through lower prices or absorbed by competition.</span></p> <p><span>This could be one of the most important questions for 2027.</span></p> <p><span>If adoption begins to generate sustained improvements in corporate margins and returns, the AI investment opportunity could broaden beyond technology infrastructure into a much wider range of sectors.</span></p> <p><span>If the productivity gains take longer to materialise, businesses may become more cautious about AI spending, potentially slowing the growth of the infrastructure suppliers that have benefited most so far.</span></p> <p><span>The next stage of the AI cycle may be defined less by how much infrastructure gets built and more by how effectively businesses put it to work.</span></p> <p><strong><span><hr /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Beyond the earnings: Where might investors be overreacting?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>One of the more interesting developments this earnings season has been the difference between business performance and share-price reactions.</span></p> <p><span>Some companies have experienced sharp selloffs despite relatively resilient underlying businesses. Others are facing challenges that may justify a more lasting reassessment of their valuations.</span></p> <p><span>There are three areas worth distinguishing.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td></td> <td > <p ><strong><span>Companies to watch</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>What investors should consider</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Selloff may be excessive</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>ServiceNow, Alphabet, Meta</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Strong underlying businesses, but concerns about AI spending, monetisation and future growth have weighed on sentiment. Is the market pricing in too much pessimism?</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Story has weakened</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Intel, Fortinet, leveraged AI infrastructure providers</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Softer guidance, slowing growth or financing pressures raise questions about future earnings. Is this temporary weakness or a more lasting challenge?</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Story has strengthened</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Microsoft, TSMC, SK hynix, Seagate</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Results reinforce strong demand, earnings momentum or competitive advantages. But how much of this optimism is already reflected in valuations?</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Bottom line: The AI story is entering a more demanding phase</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The latest earnings have reinforced confidence in the strength of AI demand. Cloud businesses are growing rapidly, infrastructure suppliers are reporting exceptional results, and commercial applications are beginning to generate revenue.</span></p> <p><span>But the investment story is becoming more complicated.</span></p> <p><span>Spending is rising, infrastructure margins may not remain exceptional forever, and the broader productivity benefits of AI are still largely ahead of us.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the next phase calls for a more balanced approach: maintain awareness of the structural AI opportunity, pay closer attention to cash flow and returns on capital, and look for evidence that AI adoption is creating sustainable economic value beyond the technology sector.</span></p> <p><span>The AI boom has already shown us how much companies are willing to spend. The next chapter will be about how much they can earn from that investment.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Microsoft</span> <span>Microsoft Corp.</span> <span>Amazon.com</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>NVidia Corp.</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span> <span>Intel Corp</span> <span>Intel Corp.</span> <span>Meta Platforms Inc.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 30 October, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 30 Oct 2026 01:13:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>ECB holds rates. US headline PCE and Core PCE rise.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Intel fell 18% in after hours on weak outlook, Amazon –6% on high capex</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Canadian dollar set for best monthly gain since April</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Gold under pressure near $4,000 and silver breaks $52</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasuries rally on haven demand as curve bull steepens</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p> <span> </span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The ECB kept rates unchanged in October 2026</span></strong></span><span>, warning high energy prices could fuel inflation and hurt growth, while underlying inflation is stable. The move followed reports President Lagarde plans to step down early; she said a hike was discussed but unanimously rejected.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the fastest in six months, driven by higher energy costs. Core PCE was up 0.3%. <strong>Year-on-year, headline PCE reached 3.6% and core 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.</strong></span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the fastest in a year and above forecasts. Growth was driven by a surge in private investment, strong consumer spending, higher government outlays, and inventory gains, while housing investment fell and net trade weighed on GDP.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24</span></strong></span><span>, 2026, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims dropped to 1.701 million, the lowest in over three years, underscoring a strong labor market.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October 2026</span></strong></span><span>, down from 2.7% in September. The BoJ’s preferred core measure slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, below forecasts, after it raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest since 1995.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September 2026 from 2.5%</span></strong></span><span>, with employment up, participation at 64.5%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rising to 1.19, indicating a tighter labor market.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year in September 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the slowest in three months and below forecasts, led by a jump in motor vehicle sales. Month-on-month, sales fell 0.7%, a second consecutive decline.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday a<strong>s Alphabet plunged ~13% — its worst session on record — after Q3 ad and search revenue disappointed, wiping over $395bn in market cap. </strong>The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% to 29,402, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720, and the Dow shed 0.3% to 52,343. Defensive sectors — healthcare, real estate, and consumer staples — outperformed. Caterpillar fell ~10% on modest earnings. <strong>After hours, Intel plunged ~18% on a weak Q4 outlook, Amazon dropped ~6% on elevated capex, negative free cash flow of $42.4b in past 12 months and slowing e-commerce growth, </strong>while Starbucks slipped ~1.7% despite a US comp beat, weighed by international weakness.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities outperformed global peers on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.8% to 649.11, the DAX gaining 1.3% to 26,040, the CAC 40 up 1.1% to 7,970, and the FTSE 100 adding 0.3% to 10,722. Upbeat corporate earnings and Iran peace deal reports drove sentiment. Kongsberg surged 13% in Stockholm. Novartis rose 2.4% and Sandoz gained 4.4% in Zurich. Adidas led the DAX with a 5.8% advance. Haleon plunged as much as 14% in London — its worst day since its 2022 listing — after cutting its organic sales growth outlook due to a China regulatory change halting Centrum vitamin sales.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets face a difficult open Friday, led by a sharp selloff in South Korea. The Kospi fell ~3.1% to 5,749 at the open, with tech-heavy names bearing the brunt of the AI earnings fallout from Intel and Amazon. Nikkei 225 futures also pointed lower, with AI infrastructure suppliers such as Lasertec and Ibiden under pressure following Intel's post-market slump. The Hang Seng (22,959) faces headwinds from mainland Chinese investors pulling back at the fastest pace in over five years — net HK$24bn in outflows in October through Thursday. BYD missed Q3 profit estimates despite overseas sales more than doubling, dampening hopes for a recovery in China auto stocks. Geely also failed to reassure investors on its European export outlook. The STI (5,396) and ASX 200 (up ~0.8% in early trade) are relatively better positioned, with Australian banks benefiting from a defensive rotation.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>USDJPY </span></strong><span>holds around 157.88, little changed on the day, as markets await the BOJ rate decision. The yen remains off its 52-week high of 163.87, with the BOJ widely expected to hold rates steady today.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>Mexican peso </strong>was among the worst-performing EM currencies on Thursday, falling ~1.2% to 18.86 per dollar, driven by broad risk aversion and a flight to US bonds amid the tech-led equity selloff.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>Australian dollar </strong>softened to 0.7027 against the USD, down on the week despite robust domestic inflation data that makes an RBA rate hike next week a near-certainty. Risk-off sentiment from the US tech selloff is overriding the hawkish domestic backdrop.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>Canadian dollar </strong>is on track for its best monthly gain since April, up ~1.9% in October, supported by elevated oil prices and the Bank of Canada's shift toward tighter monetary policy. <strong>USDCAD </strong>was last around 1.3965.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>trades around 1.1181, broadly stable. Citi lowered its 3-month EURUSD forecast to 1.105 from 1.135, citing European tail risks, a widening rate differential favouring the USD, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong ><span>Commodities:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>fell ~1.3% on Thursday to around $4,022/oz, reversing three days of modest gains after the Fed held rates and offered limited forward guidance, leaving open the prospect of a December hike. JPMorgan Private Bank sees further downside risk, expecting the Fed to hike in December and again in Q1 2027, with 10-year yields potentially peaking at 5.25–5.50% mid-2027. This morning spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,012.47 an ounce, <strong>silver </strong>slid 0.4% to $51.94 and is down about 14% this month, while platinum and palladium also edged lower.</span></li> <li><strong><span>WTI crude</span></strong><span> settled at $102.00/bbl (-$0.78) and Brent at $114.88/bbl (-$0.44), easing on reports that the Trump administration is engaged in negotiations toward a temporary peace deal with Iran. Lower oil prices are providing some relief to inflation concerns and supporting the Treasury rally.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasuries </span></strong><span>rallied sharply as the tech-led equity selloff drove haven demand. The 2-year yield fell ~10bps to 4.60%, the 10-year fell ~4bps to 4.94%, and the 30-year eased to 5.30%, with the curve bull-steepening. The 5s30s spread widened to ~52.7bps.</span></li> <li><span>The US Treasury's $44bn 7-year note auction was awarded at 4.894%, matching the when-issued yield exactly (stopping on the screws), with a bid-to-cover of 2.46 — above the prior auction's 2.42. Indirect bidder takedown was 57.77%, the highest in recent months, signalling solid demand.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Japanese government bond futures</span></strong><span> are firmer ahead of the BOJ decision, with JGBs benefiting from a bonds-stocks rebalancing as macro traders turn defensive. Australian and New Zealand bonds also rallied, tracking Treasuries. UK gilts rose for a second consecutive day, led by the short end, aided by lower oil and gas prices.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Microsoft and Alphabet earnings: same AI boom, two very different verdicts</h1> <p>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li > <p><strong>Microsoft’s strong cloud growth and cash generation</strong> gave investors greater confidence in its AI spending.</p> </li> <li > <p><strong>Alphabet’s cloud business surged</strong>, but weaker advertising momentum raised tougher questions about its core business.</p> </li> <li > <p><strong>For investors, the test is shifting</strong> from building AI capacity to earning a return on it.</p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Artificial intelligence can answer almost anything. But investors have one harder question: will it pay for itself?</p> <p>On 28 October 2026, Microsoft and Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported results that offered two very different answers. Both reported strong AI demand. Yet Microsoft shares rose after hours while Alphabet fell sharply. Investors were judging who could pay the bill.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Microsoft: the spending has a customer</strong></h3> <p>Microsoft sells software to businesses and rents out computing power through Azure, its cloud platform. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast" target="_blank">Azure sales grew 48%</a>, beating expectations, as companies kept paying for AI computing.</p> <p>More importantly, Microsoft generated 18.6 billion USD in free cash flow, the money left after running the business and investing in equipment. Its costly data centres are supporting sales without consuming all its cash.</p> <p>There is a catch. Microsoft's spending came in below forecasts partly because some computing capacity arrived late. Its investment bill is still growing. The market rewarded progress, not a risk-free spending plan.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Alphabet: more searches, less money per answer</strong></h3> <p><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.publicnow.com/view/ED018F4AAE12FB3B1BD1E9649EA9BF381E69B00F" target="_blank">Alphabet makes most of its money from Google advertising</a>, alongside cloud services. Its Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, showing strong demand for its AI infrastructure.</p> <p>The trouble sits closer to home. Search advertising grew, but less than analysts expected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Google says users are making more searches, yet its newer AI Mode currently earns less advertising revenue per search.</p> <p>Google needs better AI answers to keep users, but they currently earn less than traditional search pages. Meanwhile, heavy investment left Alphabet with negative free cash flow of 9.1 billion USD, its second consecutive quarter below zero.</p> <p>Search remains a huge business. The question is whether higher AI usage will translate into more cash.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The wider lesson: follow the money</strong></h3> <p>Both companies also earn money serving potential rivals. Microsoft's relationship with OpenAI and Google's cloud business with Anthropic show how they can benefit without winning every chatbot contest.</p> <p>That demand supports chipmakers, data-centre builders and electricity suppliers. But much depends on a few enormous customers continuing to finance expansion.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Risks worth watching</strong></h3> <p>For Alphabet, the key signs are whether AI searches generate more advertising revenue and whether cash generation recovers. For Microsoft, watch whether cloud growth stays strong as delayed investments arrive. Both face rising costs and dependence on large AI customers.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The answer is in the cash</strong></h3> <p>These results are not a final verdict on which company will lead artificial intelligence. Microsoft has a clearer near-term link between AI demand, revenue and cash generation. Alphabet has a harder balancing act, defending the advertising model that made Google successful while rebuilding it for a different way of searching.</p> <p>For investors, that distinction matters more than one evening's share-price reaction. A growing market does not guarantee that every participant will earn attractive returns. What counts is whether customers keep paying, whether costs remain manageable and whether the business can fund its ambitions. AI can produce remarkable answers. The companies that matter most to investors will also need to produce cash.</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: FOMC a modest dovish surprise. ECB and BoJ on tap.</h1> <p>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:10:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Most of the USD reaction to FOMC already erased.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>FOMC – a modest dovish surprise<br /> </strong><span >The US dollar weakened slightly and the US Treasury yield curve steepened late Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference, with the latter making the bigger impression. The statement was largely the same and there were two hawkish dissenters in favour of a hike. Of the changes to the statement, one was a slightly hawkish upgrade as economic was now described as expanding at a "strong" rather than a merely "solid" pace. Another change left room for interpretation: the change of the September justification for tightening was replaced with a data-dependent "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely" (rather than timelier) return to the 2% target. Probably just revised to explain why they are waiting and not hiking at this meeting? Unknown.</span></p> <p>In the presser, there were a few nuances that the market took as dovish. Chair Warsh pushed back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. This looks like a strong "out" for not responding to higher inflation levels. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and beginning to restrain credit conditions and wanted another six weeks (time frame to next meeting) to assess what to do. He also rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation.</p> <p>While the reaction in treasury markets (front-end coming down, long end mostly steady) largely stuck, the modest USD sell-off spent most of early Thursday hours reversing, even if the JPY comeback was trying to hold on. For the US dollar this was a largely a non-event, in short - direction of global risk sentiment and oil prices may carry more sway for now in UDS direction.</p> <p><strong>ECB today<br /> </strong><span >The ECB has perhaps more potential to surprise today given the pricing of the December rate hike (still high odds, but will the ECB indicate declining resolve to continue tightening policy?). Further tightening is not priced in until March or later of next year. I suspect a solidly high risk that the ECB removes forward guidance for any further tightening, at least upgrading the uncertainty level, which could knock the Euro a bit lower. How much will the ECB admit that the elephant in the room is the recent instability in French sovereign bonds? Awkward, with a French ECB President presiding. Still, the euro has suffered quite a bit in the crosses already, so a dovish shift is partially priced in (note the trend readings in the FX Board below.)</span></p> <p><strong>BoJ incoming as well<br /> </strong><span >The retreat in short-date US treasury yields post-FOMC helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting (look for the statement release around 0230-0330 GMT and Ueda presser at 0630). The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels as noted in USDJPY chart below) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months. With USDJPY trading near 158.00, I would expect the Bank of Japan to sound resolute on doing what it takes to ensure inflation fighting credibility, including on the currency angle risk to inflation, but how much this can jolt rate spreads higher is somewhat doubtful, given that the December BoJ is already mostly priced to deliver a hike, with more to come next year. Actual intervention may be needed from the Ministry of Finance to make the point clear, even if Ueda waxes hawkish.</span></p> <p><strong>Chart: USDJPY<br /> </strong><span >With so many bouts of intervention in the mix in recent months, it is difficult to argue the case for technical analysis on the USDJPY chart, but either way, the 158.50 plus area remains obviously critical for the pair, as it is both near recent resistance and the obvious 200-day moving average and Ichimoku cloud levels. Note that the recent lows avoided touching the bottom of the cloud, which is now set to rise above those levels – so the first downside key is the cloud bottom on the daily closing basis, followed by the local 156.08 pivot low and then the 155.25 area (61.8% retracement level).</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>RBNZ dovish shocker and BoC hike<br /> </strong><span >The Bank of Canada hiked yesterday as seemed inevitable after recent hawkish rhetoric from Governor Macklem, but even with the dovish FOMC yesterday, USDCAD is having a hard time separating from the magnetic round 1.4000 level. That level looks pivotal for the pair. Canadian short rates pulled toward the cycle highs as Macklem said that the estimate of the neutral rate may have to rise, among other comments. The RBNZ surprised early Wednesday with a dovish shocker in not hiking again as the market expected, though it positioned the move as a delay rather than a direction change and the vote was a close 4-3. Still, the bank upgraded short-term inflation forecasts at the same time, while saying it paused as an expression of concern on the outlook for global growth and that inflation was mostly being driven by imported energy costs. The NZD was punched steeply lower, especially in AUDNZD as Australia was out with strong inflation numbers around the same time frame, but RBNZ Governor Breman has already been out with a bit of pushback on the market's takeway, saying that the odds of a December hike are high. AUDNZD set a new 13-year high near 1.2600.</span></p> <p><strong>Autumn Budget statement yawn for sterling<br /> </strong><span >There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “fiscal headroom” to avoid fiscal stability concerns for now, although that headroom is now smaller than before. The household energy subsidy of GBP 100 to 20 million households won't break the bank, and most moves were incremental, with some modest tax increases, a temporary one on bank earnings and on savings and property income (not on wage). The really tough stuff is yet to come: the overall spending by the government's various departments which will be undergoing the biannual 2027 spending review. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.</span></p> <p><strong>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </strong><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p> <p><span>China keeping a firm hand under its currency as the country remains mired in a balance sheet and deflationary (for housing especially) spiral. Elsewhere, the JPY rally attempt has fizzled a bit ahead of the BoJ tomorrow. In the negative column, the NZD paid a heavy price for not hiking and the Euro is extremely weak, so a bit tough to hope for a massive reaction to a dovish surprise at today’s ECB meeting when it is already beaten down so aggressively. Much of that, by the way, is versus SEK and especially NOK.</span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span>The AUD is trying to put on a show here, but AUDUSD, for example, is in the shadow of the prior major sell-off and has sold off sharply after punching above the 200-day moving average after the FOMC meeting – it looks sensitive to risk sentiment here. Let’s give the AUDNZD and AUDJPY another couple of days to settle as well – a bit skeptical about this AUD move, obviously. USDJPY status is uncertain as well – yes, the recent sell-off was neutralized, but we have a massive overhead resistance and a BoJ meeting to get through. Elsewhere, EURNOK is getting to be a bit much with a -12.4 trend reading (!). Imagine what happens there if we suddenly get 10-dollar drop in crude.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Novo Nordisk results: your shares are Danish, the options are American</h1> <p>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 07:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Novo Nordisk reports nine-month results on 4 November 2026. Many investors hold the shares in Copenhagen, but the options at Saxo trade on the New York ADR. What does that change for a cash-secured put or a covered call?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>Same company, two share lines. Before results day, it helps to know which one an option is written on.</em></p> <p><em>Key information on the NVO ADR. Indicative figures. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, as of the 28 October 2026 US close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <p>Novo Nordisk is scheduled to publish its nine-month 2026 results on Wednesday 4 November 2026, before the Copenhagen market opens. The focus is the 2026 outlook, raised in August but still pointing to lower sales than last year (Source: Novo Nordisk).</p> <p>Many Danish investors own Novo Nordisk B shares on Nasdaq Copenhagen. At Saxo, the listed options on the company sit on a different line: the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) traded in New York under the ticker NVO. For anyone thinking about options around this report, that is the first thing to understand.</p> <p><em>NVO ADR share price with the two example strikes and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 28 October 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>One company, two share lines</strong></h2> <p>An ADR is a certificate traded in the US that stands for shares of a foreign company. Each NVO ADR represents one Novo Nordisk B share (Source: Novo Nordisk investor relations), but the two are different securities. The ADR trades in US dollars, on the New York Stock Exchange, from 15:30 to 22:00 CET. The B shares trade in Danish kroner in Copenhagen, which closes at 17:00 CET.</p> <p>That has three practical effects. The dollar-krone exchange rate moves the result on top of the share price, in either direction. A report at 07:30 CET trades in Copenhagen for hours before New York opens. And a covered call is covered only by the security the option is written on. One NVO contract covers 100 ADRs, so a call sold against Copenhagen shares is not covered at all. It is a short call with open-ended risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Sizing the move from option prices</strong></h2> <p>Adding the price of the call and the put at the strike closest to the share price gives a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. For the 20 November expiry, that points to about 8.5% in either direction, over every trading day to expiry, not only results day.</p> <ul> <li><strong>38 strike:</strong> call 1.815 + put 1.435 = 3.25</li> <li><strong>38.50 strike:</strong> call 1.595 + put 1.69 = 3.285</li> <li><strong>At the ADR price of USD 38.29:</strong> about USD 3.27, or 8.5%, a rough range of USD 35.02 to USD 41.56</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative mid prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close; author calculation)</li> </ul> <p>On most of the last eight results days, the ADR moved less than 6%. The exception was February 2026, when an outlook released the evening before sent the ADR down about 15% and the Copenhagen shares about 17% (Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, closing prices). Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <p><em>Share price move on the last eight Novo Nordisk results days, Copenhagen B shares and NVO ADR. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, closing prices, November 2024 to August 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>A weekly for traders, a monthly for investors</strong></h2> <p>A weekly NVO option expires on Friday 6 November 2026, two days after the report. That is a tool for short-term traders. The examples here use the monthly expiry on Friday 20 November 2026, a horizon closer to how an investor thinks. The premium is larger, but it pays for more than the report: it also covers two extra weeks of ordinary price movement.</p> <p>Part of every option price right now is a payment for the uncertainty of results day. Once the numbers are out, that part usually shrinks. The seller collects it up front and carries the risk of a large move. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses. In February and August 2026, Novo released its numbers the evening before the scheduled date, while New York was still trading (the US close is 22:00 CET); an early release would still fall well before 20 November.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Naming a lower purchase price: a cash-secured put at 35</strong></h2> <p>Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 ADRs at the strike if NVO is below it at expiry. In exchange, the seller receives a premium today and keeps the full purchase amount set aside in cash. The view behind it: an investor who would be willing to own Novo, but only at a lower price.</p> <p><em>The following example is hypothetical and for educational use only; it is not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Sell</strong> 1 NVO 20 November 2026 35 put at about USD 0.42 (bid 0.40, ask 0.44), with NVO at USD 38.29</li> <li><strong>Net credit:</strong> USD 42 (0.42 x 100), hypothetical, for education only</li> <li><strong>Cash set aside:</strong> USD 3,500</li> <li><strong>Break-even at expiry:</strong> USD 34.58, the strike less the premium, about 10% below the current price</li> <li><strong>Maximum risk:</strong> USD 3,458 (hypothetical, for education only), if NVO fell to zero; <strong>Maximum profit:</strong> the USD 42 premium (hypothetical, for education only)</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close)</li> </ul> <p>The risk comes first. Below the break-even, the loss grows dollar for dollar, exactly as for a shareholder, while the premium is the whole gain however far NVO rises. A repeat of February’s fall would take the ADR to about USD 33, below the strike, and the seller would own the ADRs at a loss. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p>Why 35: it is the first listed strike below the lower edge of the rough range, so a move of the size the options point to would not reach it.</p> <p><em><br /> The 35 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Naming a sale price for ADRs already held: a covered call at 42</strong></h2> <p>Selling a covered call means agreeing to sell 100 ADRs already owned at the strike if NVO is above it at expiry, for a premium received today. This example is narrow on purpose: it fits only an investor who already holds NVO ADRs and has already settled on a price at which they would sell some. Whether Novo looks cheap or expensive after this year’s fall is each investor’s own judgement; the call does not answer that question.</p> <p><em>The following example is hypothetical and for educational use only; it is not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Own</strong> 100 NVO ADRs; <strong>Sell</strong> 1 NVO 20 November 2026 42 call at about USD 0.47 (bid 0.44, ask 0.50), with NVO at USD 38.29</li> <li><strong>Net credit:</strong> USD 47 (0.47 x 100), about 1.2% of the USD 3,829 ADR value, hypothetical, for education only</li> <li><strong>Break-even at expiry:</strong> USD 37.82, the ADR price less the premium</li> <li><strong>Maximum profit:</strong> USD 418 (hypothetical, for education only), USD 371 of gain up to 42 plus the premium, if NVO is at or above 42 at expiry; <strong>Maximum risk:</strong> USD 3,782 (hypothetical, for education only), if NVO fell to zero</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of the 28 October 2026 US close)</li> </ul> <p>The risk comes first. The investor retains the full downside risk of holding the ADRs. The premium received provides a partial offset, but it does not protect against a significant decline in the share price: a fall like February’s would cost roughly USD 560 on 100 ADRs, against USD 47 received. If results lift the shares well above 42, the holder also gives that gain away until expiry. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p>Why 42: it is the first listed strike above the upper edge of the rough range.</p> <p><em><br /> The 42 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, so it reports unlimited risk; held against 100 NVO ADRs, a rise above 42 is covered by the ADRs, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What neither example protects against</strong></h2> <p>Neither example protects against a large fall. The put seller may end up owning ADRs bought above the market price, and the call seller still owns the ADRs. Next to a move like February’s, the premium is small.</p> <p>An investor who believes the shares have fallen far enough sees it from the other side: the covered call may give away the part they care about most, a recovery. An investor who does not want to own Novo has no use for the put. For both, and for anyone who prefers to wait for the numbers, doing nothing is a valid outcome. Tax treatment of options and ADRs depends on each investor’s own situation and local rules.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Before placing the trade, check:</h4> <ul> <li>The gap between bid and ask, and the open interest at the strike</li> <li>The expiry: Friday 20 November 2026, and that the strike is listed</li> <li>The report timing: scheduled 07:30 CET on 4 November 2026, with an early release on the evening of 3 November possible</li> <li>That the account holds USD for the cash set aside, or what a currency conversion would cost</li> <li>For the covered call, that the position is in ADRs, not Copenhagen shares</li> <li>Commission, charged per contract and larger in proportion on a small premium</li> <li>An exit plan, decided before the report</li> </ul> <p><strong>Assignment risk note:</strong> NVO options are American-style, so a short option can be assigned on any day before expiry if it moves in the money. Settlement is by delivery of ADRs, not Copenhagen shares. Only the seller of an option faces assignment risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Back to the Copenhagen holding</strong></h2> <p>For a Copenhagen holder, the main lesson around this report is a practical one. The options available at Saxo sit on the ADR, so they bring a second currency, a second trading session and, for the covered call, a second holding. In our view, those details may matter as much as the choice between a put and a call. Either example can be closed before expiry, but neither removes the size of a results-day move. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. </em><em >The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/ubs-reports-on-wednesday-two-ways-to-name-your-price-while-bern-decides-27102026" data-id="26D1D90D0E3F487993FD2FC50BA059B1" data-type="Article">UBS reports on Wednesday two ways to name your price while Bern decides</a> | 27 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/novartis-results-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-when-the-big-moves-come-from-elsewhere-23102026" data-id="0C4CE6FF604B4C4EB96A100A0E8B2516" data-type="Article">Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere</a> | 23 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/coreweave-after-the-bond-scare-what-a-cash-secured-put-pays-for-and-what-it-carries-21102026" data-id="27FF371E331741C6A31AAF8C62648DD7" data-type="Article">CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries</a> | 21 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/roche-sales-update-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-20102026" data-id="1A48DD78C67449998AD0D84A45EAF8E0" data-type="Article">Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 20 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sap-earnings-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-16102026" data-id="16162248F6D044E4BF8EE478A44D44A5" data-type="Article">SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 16 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/amd-after-a-ten-percent-day-taking-something-off-the-table-without-selling-the-shares-22092026" data-id="ACEB34AA10D24B4EA96F8709F6FE12A3" data-type="Article"></a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/finding-unusually-expensive-or-cheap-options-in-the-saxo-screener-18092026" data-id="B1C6A219A03F4ABCB94EDE297B17D955" data-type="Article">Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener</a> | 18 Sep 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026" data-id="6FF097126E5C41E3B0940DFBEBC1E335" data-type="Article">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article">Trading earnings with defined</a> | 31 Mar 2026<br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-end-reprices-long-end-holds---options-brief---15-october-2026-15102026" data-id="F990962B7E4B44088D5A8B26B88A711D" data-type="Article">Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sectors-pull-apart-the-index-holds---options-brief---14-october-2026-14102026" data-id="57517A525FBF4EE8B458781EBF88FD25" data-type="Article">Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Crypto and blockchain</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Alphabet revenue miss spooks markets - 29 October 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 07:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: The Fed held with hawkish dissents while Canada hiked and Britain kept its fiscal rules</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>:<strong> </strong>US equities edged higher after the Fed held rates, Europe finished flat, Asia turned mixed as AI earnings divided investors.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Index gauges eased after the Fed hold while front futures rose overnight on tech earnings</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Miners and crypto equities firmed in the session while tokens slipped overnight</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil dips on Iran diplomacy, gas prices soar while gold remains under pressure</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US front-end yields fall on slightly dovish impressions from post-FOMC Fed Chair Warsh press conference</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: US dollar retreats on FOMC, but erases losses early Thursday, although JPY held firmer.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Ma</strong><strong>cro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The FOMC voted 10–2 to </strong><strong>leave</strong><strong> the </strong><strong>federal </strong><strong>funds rate </strong><strong>unchanged </strong><strong>at 3.75%–4.00%, </strong><strong>while </strong>Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control but offered little guidance on December. His carefully calibrated remarks nevertheless suggested a modest dovish shift within the committee, prompting markets to scale back tightening expectations to just two fully priced rate hikes over the next 12 months, with growing doubts about a December move. Warsh also indicated that the Fed is likely to reduce the number of scheduled policy meetings from eight to six annually, with one meeting removed in 2027 and a further two in 2028. The combination of a less hawkish policy outlook and proposed changes to the meeting schedule contributed to a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. </li> <li><strong>The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 bps to 2.5% in October 2026</strong>, its first hike in three years, to curb broader inflation pressures from high energy prices. It signaled possible further increases but urged caution, noting inflation is higher and more persistent than in July. CPI is now seen averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% by mid-2028, with growth projected at 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027–28.</li> <li><strong>UK Chancellor John Healey’s first budget upheld fiscal rules, with the OBR estimating £15bn of headroom in 2029–30.</strong> Measures include energy bill relief, smaller bank tax hikes, tariff suspensions on 100+ supermarket goods, a 3.9% minimum wage rise, and £20.4bn more for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1%, raised 2026 to 1.2%, and lifted borrowing and debt projections.</li> <li><strong>The US goods deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September 2026,</strong> the largest since March 2025 and above the $130 billion forecast, as imports rose 2.4% to a record $344.15 billion and exports increased 2.6% to $209.24 billion.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0930 – UK Sept Mortgage Approvals</li> <li>1000 – Eurozone October Consumer Confidence</li> <li>1230 – US Sep. PCE inflation</li> <li>1230 – US 3Q GDP (First estimate)</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1315 – ECB Rate Decision</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes</li> <li>2330 – Japan Tokyo Oct. CPI</li> <li>Friday 0230-0330 (approximately) – Japan Bank of Japan decision and statement</li> <li>Friday 0630 – Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.2% after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, although two policymakers voted for a hike. Oracle surged 10.7% after projecting $30 billion in annual free cash flow by fiscal 2029, reassuring investors about its AI spending, while Boston Scientific fell 5.8% after cutting its outlook following a cyberattack. After the close, Alphabet slumped around 10% on disappointing revenue and negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while Microsoft gained almost 3% as Azure cloud revenue grew 48%, beating expectations.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities finished broadly flat, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% to 644.14, the DAX gaining 0.4%, and the FTSE 100 edging 0.1% higher as investors assessed earnings and the UK budget ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision. Barclays rose 1.6% after the UK government's increase in the bank surcharge proved smaller than feared, while Stellantis surged 15.6% in Milan after better-than-expected quarterly revenue and reaffirmed guidance. Genmab jumped 29.1% after reporting positive late-stage trial results for a head-and-neck cancer treatment, while Logitech dropped 10.8% as concerns over future profit margins overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities traded mixed on Thursday, with South Korea's Kospi falling around 1.5% in afternoon trading after Wednesday's 6.6% rally, while Japan's Nikkei edged higher and Hong Kong was little changed as AI earnings unsettled sentiment. Samsung Electronics dropped around 4% despite record earnings, as investors were disappointed by the absence of stronger shareholder returns, while SK Hynix showed greater resilience after surging 10.9% on Wednesday following record profits and a substantial shareholder payout announcement. Mainland Chinese shares also weakened as concerns over AI valuations weighed on sentiment. Attention now turns to Amazon and Intel earnings and the European Central Bank's policy decision.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 16.91 | VIX FUTURES: 19.000 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (148.74) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~05:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Traders sold index protection after the Fed hold and kept paying for single-stock risk, and the after-hours tape rewarded that split. The VIX fell to 16.91 while the one-day gauge rose about 5% to 13.15, pricing roughly 0.8% for today's GDP, PCE and ECB session. Dispersion climbed to its highest close in seven sessions as SKEW eased, a bet on megacap earnings gaps rather than an index-wide shock, and Alphabet's after-hours drop of about 10% delivered one. </li> <li>The October VIX contract has expired, so the 3 November midterm now sits inside spot VIX, which trades almost two points below November futures. MOVE fell to 94.55, confirming calmer rates vol, though front futures rose 2.16% overnight to 19.000.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~79,731 -1.85% | ETHEREUM ~2,305 -2.19% | IBIT 46.14 +0.96% | ETHA 53.60 +1.07% | AS OF ~05:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin miners traded on AI capacity again on Wednesday, gaining between 4.8% and 6.6% as the chip rally sparked by SK Hynix's sold-out memory outlook spilled into data-centre names. The tokens then slipped overnight with Nasdaq futures after Alphabet's results, taking bitcoin back below USD 80,000 and ether to about USD 2,305, with XRP and Solana both down about 2.7%. </li> <li>Strategy shareholders approved daily dividends on its preferred stock, with STRC's first daily record date on 1 November, ahead of tonight's results from Strategy and Coinbase. </li> <li>Fund flows split again: bitcoin ETFs took in USD 176.0m on Tuesday, led by IBIT, while ether funds lost USD 60.2m as ETHA redemptions continued.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil</strong>: Brent trades softer, slipping back below USD 114 amid signs of intensified diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance has contacted Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s top security body, while President Trump confirmed to Axios that negotiations were underway. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also reiterated Tehran’s openness to diplomacy. However, significant obstacles remain, limiting the reaction across crude and refined-product markets, particularly given Trump’s repeated warnings that military operations against Iran could resume after the US midterm elections, potentially alongside Israel. Meanwhile, crude exports remain near pre-war levels, while supplies of refined products and, especially, LNG continue to face severe disruption.</li> <li><strong>Natural</strong><strong> gas/LNG:</strong> With Qatar's LNG production still largely offline and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz facing elevated risks, competition between Europe and Asia for seaborne supplies continues to intensify. European gas prices have surged 250% year-to-date, while Asian LNG prices are up 237%, both trading above USD 30 per MMBtu. European TTF briefly exceeded EUR 100 per MWh on Wednesday for the first time since 2022, raising concerns ahead of the peak winter demand period, not least considering European inventories are more than 100 standard-sized LNG cargoes below recent years.</li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> trades weaker around USD 4025 after staging a modest rebound during the Asian session as traders digest a data-dependent Fed outlook. The tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, leaving prices directionless amid concerns over elevated energy prices, AI-related equity weakness, bond yields and the dollar. Focus remains on a key area of support below USD 4000 while a break above USD 4,070 and subsequently USD 4,230 to force a change in the prevailing sentiment. </li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US Treasury yield</strong><strong> curve steepened Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference. </strong>This was despite the two hawkish dissenting voices in favour of a rate hike rather than standing pat on the current policy rate. The new policy statement offered little of note, but the Warsh press conference saw the Fed Chair pushing back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and he rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped back about six basis points, mostly during the Warsh presser, to near 4.70% and fell slightly further in early trading Thursday, while the 10-year treasury yield was mostly steady just above 5.01% by early Thursday after chopping somewhat higher ahead of the FOMC meeting.</li> <li><strong>Germany’s short-dated yields rose to the top of the recent range Wednesday ahead of today’s ECB meeting</strong>, with the benchmark 2-year Schatz trading near 3.13% on the close and up over four basis points on the day. The market is still pricing the ECB to not hike at today’s meeting, but is looking for high odds of a rate hike at the December meeting, while further hiking is seen unlikely until March of next year or later.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>weakened slightly in the slightly dovish impression left by the FOMC meeting late Wednesday, but firmed aga</strong><strong>in </strong><strong>overnight in Asian trading hours</strong>, perhaps in part on risk sentiment weakening on tech stock concerns linked to Alphabet and Samsung earnings reports. EURUSD trade 1.1140 early Thursday ahead of the ECB meeting later in the day after matching its 17-month low Wednesday at 1.1113.</li> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>retreat in short-date US treasury yi</strong><strong>elds helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. </strong>USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of this Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting. The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months.</li> <li><strong>There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the </strong><strong>Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey</strong>, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “ceiling” to avoid any fiscal stability concerns. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.</li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 29 October, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 29 October, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>Fed holds rates. BoC raises rates by 25bps to 2.5%. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span ></span><span >Oracle popped 11%, GOOGL –9.7% on earnings miss; MSFT +3% on Azure</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >AUDUSD hits one month high while NZD was weakest G10 currency </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Oil rallied while silver remains below $55 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >U.S. Treasury curve bear-steepened, with long-end moving higher </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>The FOMC voted 10–2 to hold the funds rate at 3.75%–4.00%, with Governors Cook and Hammack favoring a hike. Chair Warsh reaffirmed the inflation fight but gave no clear signal on December.</span></strong><span> He also said one 2027 meeting and two in 2028 will exclude rate votes and statements, prompting a sharp steepening of the Treasury curve.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong ><span>Reports said US Vice President JD Vance contacted Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei. President Trump confirmed mediated talks but noted uncertain outcomes,</span></strong><span > while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remains open to diplomacy.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 bps to 2.5% in October 2026</span></strong><span >, its first hike in three years, to curb broader inflation pressures from high energy prices. It signaled possible further increases but urged caution, noting inflation is higher and more persistent than in July. CPI is now seen averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% by mid-2028, with growth projected at 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027–28.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>UK Chancellor John Healey’s first budget upheld fiscal rules, with the OBR estimating £15bn of headroom in 2029–30.</span></strong><span > Measures include energy bill relief, smaller bank tax hikes, tariff suspensions on 100+ supermarket goods, a 3.9% minimum wage rise, and £20.4bn more for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1%, raised 2026 to 1.2%, and lifted borrowing and debt projections.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The US goods deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September 2026,</span></strong><span > the largest since March 2025 and above the $130 billion forecast, as imports rose 2.4% to a record $344.15 billion and exports increased 2.6% to $209.24 billion.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5% to 29,813.16, and the Dow added ~100 points to 52,475.10 on Wednesday, as the Fed held rates and AI optimism returned.<strong> Oracle surged 11% after projecting $30bn in free cash flow by FY2029.</strong> Icon Plc jumped 17%. Boston Scientific fell 9% after cutting its sales outlook following a cyberattack.<strong> In after-hours trade, Alphabet slumped ~10% on disappointing revenue and negative free cash flow of $9.07b in Q3,</strong> <strong>while Microsoft jumped 3% after Azure cloud sales grew 48%, beating the 44% estimate and capex of $39.4b was well below estimates.</strong> Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4% in early Asian trading.<span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities were broadly flat on Wednesday. The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.07% to 644.14, the DAX rose 0.44% to 25,704.02, the FTSE 100 gained 0.07% to 10,694.50, and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed +0.05% at 6,167.81. UK bank stocks outperformed after Chancellor Healey raised the bank surcharge by only 3 percentage points to 6%, below the feared 8% level — NatWest +4.4%, Lloyds +4.3%, Barclays +3.8%. Stellantis surged 15% on better-than-expected Q3 revenue. Genmab jumped 29.1% in Nordic trading. Unilever fell as much as 3.2% on weak developed-market performance. Logitech dropped 10.8% on the SMI.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <ul > <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday. The Kospi surged 6.6% to 6,012.44 — its biggest rally in three months — led by SK Hynix, which jumped 10% after reporting a seven-fold surge in profits and announcing a ~$45bn shareholder return plan, lifting the broader AI trade. The Nikkei 225 closed at 63,954.19. The Hang Seng ended at 23,094.83, with PetroChina rising on higher oil prices while Ping An fell after reporting a 27% drop in nine-month net income. The STI closed at 5,397.91. On Thursday morning, the Kospi opened little changed at 6,017.22. Alphabet's after-hours miss is weighing on sentiment, with Nasdaq futures down 0.9%, though MSCI Asia Pacific edged up 0.3% led by Japan and Australia. Japan corporate credit risk widened by the most since September 2022, led by SoftBank and Nissan.<span></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Earnings this week:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>Thursday: Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Intel, Amazon, BYD, Denso, Keyence, Wilmar International<span></span></li> <li>Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>The New Zealand dollar was the weakest G10 currency after the RBNZ's surprise rate hold. <strong>NZDUSD </strong>fell to 0.5626, lagging all peers. <span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >AUDUSD </strong><span >rose as much as 0.6% to a one-month high of 0.7065 before settling at 0.7054, supported by the hotter-than-expected Q3 trimmed mean CPI and a softer dollar post-Fed.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USDCNH </strong><span >slipped to 6.6617 and USDCNY was little changed at 6.666; the PBOC set the fixing at 6.7165.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USDJPY </strong><span >held at 157.84, keeping the yen near multi-decade lows as the 10-year US yield remained above 5%. JGB yields rose, with the 10-year up ~4.5bp to 2.83% and the 30-year up ~5.5bp.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span>The <strong >Korean won</strong><span > benefited from the AI/SK Hynix rally, with USDKRW at 1,343.30. Elsewhere, the </span><strong >Thai baht </strong><span >remained near an 18-month trough, all pressured by elevated oil prices and current account deficits.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Commodities:</strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent crude </strong>closed at $115.32/bbl and WTI at $102.78/bbl. Prices were supported by reports that the US may resume military strikes on Iran after the midterms, though an oil rally waned late in the US session after the Wall Street Journal reported that VP Vance had reportedly reached out to de-escalate tensions.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Spot gold</strong><span > closed at $4,067.35/oz, recovering from a brief dip below $4,000 in prior sessions as bargain hunters returned ahead of the Fed decision. JPMorgan Private Bank cautioned that gold still faces downside risk until rates peak, with the bank expecting the 10-year yield to reach 5.25%–5.50% by mid-2027.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >LME 3-month copper</strong><span > closed at $14,477.50/t, approaching record levels. Aurubis flagged tight market conditions driven by large shipments to the US, and offered a record premium of $347/t for 2027 supply. Chile's copper output remains at a 23-year low due to accidents, weather, and operational disruptions.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong ><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong ><span> </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li>The <strong>Treasury yield curve</strong> bear-steepened after Warsh announced that one 2027 FOMC meeting and two 2028 meetings will omit rate votes. The 2s10s spread widened by more than 5bp and the 5s30s by more than 4bp. The 10-year yield closed at 5.02% and the 30-year at 5.35%, while the 2-year fell to 4.70% as front-end yields priced out some near-term hike risk.<span></span></li> <li>The 10-2 vote — with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike — left markets pricing approximately 23bp of tightening for December, little changed from before the decision. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that "bonds have done a lot of tightening for us."<span ></span></li> <li>US-friendly nations cut net Treasury purchases by over 60% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026, raising structural demand concerns for the long end. In contrast, the high-yield market posted its best one-day returns in six months on Wednesday, with CCC spreads tightening the most in over eight months and yields falling 28bp, driven by renewed AI optimism and the Fed hold.<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span ></span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span ></span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Up a fifth, still the cheapest session - Options Brief - 28 October 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The Federal Reserve decides this evening, and the option market prices today as the quietest of the three sessions left this week. One reading has stayed high while everything else drained.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>One measure on the whole volatility board rose yesterday, the one that covers today, and it still prices the quietest of the three sessions left in the week.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.52 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.22) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.000</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p>The Federal Reserve decides at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> this evening, two hours before the US close, and is expected to leave rates unchanged. Today’s S&P 500 expiry settles at that close, so it contains the decision, and it prices <strong>0.60%</strong>. The three sessions to Friday price <strong>1.14%</strong> together, which leaves about <strong>0.69%</strong> for each of Thursday and Friday. The decision day is the cheapest of the three.</p> <p>In our view Thursday may carry more: US growth and inflation data, the European Central Bank, and the reaction to tonight’s results from Microsoft and Alphabet. Microsoft stands out. Its options price a move of <strong>4.7%</strong> against an average of <strong>7.0%</strong> over its last eight reports, the only one of the five companies still to report this season priced below its own average.</p> <p>The one-day volatility gauge did jump <strong>19%</strong> yesterday, the only measure on the board to rise, but even after the jump it sits near the middle of its own range and below every longer one. One reading has stayed high. Implied correlation, a gauge of how closely stocks are expected to move together, eased for a second session but remains at the <strong>94th</strong> percentile of the readings we hold. In our view that level may matter: at it, a surprise in one large name is more likely to travel across the index.</p> <p>The backdrop was firm. The S&P 500 closed at <strong>7,722.60</strong>, up <strong>0.60%</strong>, and the semiconductor index rose <strong>3.6%</strong> after SK Hynix posted record profit, with the Kospi up <strong>6.5%</strong>. The S&P 500 has already used <strong>72%</strong> of the range priced for this week, upward, with three sessions still to run. Below the index, single-stock volatility drained for a second session, mostly in companies that have finished reporting. In yesterday’s flow the index premium carried no direction, and in the largest names long-dated calls were bought on the ask.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>The Federal Reserve decides at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> today, and the last session was spent deciding how little that is worth.</p> <p>Tuesday was led from Asia. SK Hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of <strong>83.3 trillion won</strong>, more than seven times last year’s figure, and the Kospi rose <strong>6.51%</strong> to <strong>6,005.33</strong>. The memory trade carried into New York, where the semiconductor index gained <strong>3.6%</strong> and Broadcom rose <strong>4%</strong> after a <strong>63 billion dollar</strong> financing deal to supply chips to Anthropic.</p> <p>Boeing went the other way, down <strong>10.7%</strong>, its worst day in six years, on weak results and production delays. Meta eased <strong>1.64%</strong>.</p> <p>The decision itself is expected to change nothing: a hold after September’s <strong>25 basis point</strong> increase, with the question left to December, where futures price an <strong>82.5%</strong> chance of a higher rate by year end.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Tuesday 27 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,722.60</strong>, up <strong>0.60%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,651.44</strong>, up <strong>1.29%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,383.25</strong>, up <strong>0.03%</strong>. The semiconductor fund rose <strong>3.02%</strong> to <strong>557.98</strong> and Tesla <strong>4.04%</strong>, while Meta fell <strong>1.64%</strong> and Microsoft <strong>0.24%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.47%</strong> to <strong>643.69</strong>, the DAX <strong>0.71%</strong> to <strong>25,590.77</strong> and the CAC 40 <strong>0.51%</strong>. The FTSE 100 fell <strong>0.8%</strong> on weak results, HSBC down <strong>5.4%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Wednesday morning):</strong> the Kospi rose <strong>6.51%</strong> to <strong>6,005.33</strong> on SK Hynix, the Nikkei 225 <strong>1.1%</strong> and the Hang Seng <strong>0.43%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> WTI traded at <strong>101.35</strong> and Brent <strong>110.94</strong>, both firmer on renewed warnings of military strikes. Gold eased to <strong>4,056.60</strong> after an Asian rebound stalled, silver to <strong>54.10</strong>. The two-year Treasury yield sits at <strong>4.75%</strong> and the ten-year back above five at <strong>5.02%</strong>. Bitcoin traded near <strong>81,000</strong>, the largest bitcoin fund at <strong>45.70</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> transitioning, the VIX at <strong>17.52</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>149.22</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 28 October 2026, which carries Tuesday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure. Illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Thirteen measures fell and one rose. The one-day gauge gained <strong>19.45%</strong> to <strong>12.53</strong> while the nine-day fell <strong>7.09%</strong> to <strong>16.65</strong>, the Nasdaq gauge <strong>5.64%</strong> to <strong>24.91</strong> and the small-cap gauge <strong>5.44%</strong>. Against the <strong>107</strong> sessions in our store, though, that jump leaves the one-day reading at the <strong>62nd</strong> percentile of its own range, below the nine-day at the <strong>79th</strong> and the headline gauge at the <strong>78th</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.72</strong> from <strong>0.57</strong>, recovering most of Monday’s collapse without reaching parity. VIX3M/VIX rose to <strong>1.12</strong> from <strong>1.08</strong>. VXN/VIX eased to <strong>1.42</strong>.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> November leads at <strong>19.000</strong>, a premium of about <strong>1.48</strong> to spot, widened from <strong>0.73</strong> as spot fell faster than the contract. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returns <strong>18.955</strong>, consistent to four hundredths across the nearest strikes, so the contract identity holds and no roll has occurred. December sits a shade above at <strong>19.080</strong>, so the two are effectively level.</p> <p><strong>Correlation and tails.</strong> Implied correlation fell <strong>3.30%</strong> to <strong>13.49</strong>, a second session lower, and still sits at the <strong>94th</strong> percentile of the store. Dispersion eased to <strong>37.81</strong>. SKEW at <strong>149.22</strong> holds above its <strong>145.70</strong> median, the bond gauge dropped below one hundred to <strong>97.88</strong>, and gold volatility at <strong>22.58</strong> sits at the <strong>6th</strong> percentile of its own year.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>The index measures above kept draining and the names drained with them, a second session running. On an identical universe of <strong>524</strong> underlyings, so none of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank fell to <strong>44.0</strong> from <strong>45.9</strong>. The mean fell to <strong>46.9</strong> from <strong>48.8</strong> and the median percentile to <strong>60.3</strong>, so the whole distribution moved rather than its middle.</p> <p>Almost all of the fall sits in names that have finished reporting. Beiersdorf lost <strong>47.4</strong> points of rank, PayPal <strong>42.0</strong>, UPS <strong>33.5</strong> and American Tower <strong>27.3</strong>. Boeing lost <strong>31.0</strong> points on the session it fell <strong>10.7%</strong>, which is the cleanest illustration available of what this measure does: the share price moved hard, and the event the options had been pricing was over.</p> <p>By group the spread is wide. Energy carries the richest volatility, a median rank of <strong>63.6</strong> with <strong>83%</strong> of its names above <strong>50</strong>, led by Marathon Petroleum at <strong>97.0</strong> and Valero at <strong>89.3</strong>. Metals are cheapest at <strong>17.9</strong>, with <strong>71%</strong> below <strong>20</strong>. The index funds sit near the bottom at <strong>21.2</strong>, which in our view may be the correlation reading showing up in a second dataset.</p> <p>Across almost every group the median rank sits below the median percentile. In our view that gap may point to names that are not spiking so much as sitting quietly expensive on a sustained basis.</p> <p><em>Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 27 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> gave one clean reading in the largest names. Long-dated calls were bought on the ask in Tesla, Meta, Alphabet and Apple, and the single largest put print was sold to open rather than bought, so a put-heavy tape need not be read as a bearish one. Away from the mega-caps the tape was unreadable: call buying in AMD printed at mid with no aggressor side, and Taiwan Semiconductor was bought on both sides of one expiry.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> leaned to hedging rather than direction. The large index premium was structured mid-market blocks whose sided legs offset, so the headline totals carry no bet. The one clean-sided sector tape was energy, where puts were bought at the offer in the oil and gas funds and in Exxon Mobil, partly financed by selling further out. Rates, risk-off, financials and metals carried no readable direction.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close, with Tuesday’s close marked inside it. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The S&P 500 began the week with <strong>137.05</strong> points priced around Friday’s close, <strong>1.80%</strong>, from <strong>7,486.63</strong> to <strong>7,760.73</strong>. Two sessions of five are done and Tuesday’s close at <strong>7,722.60</strong> has used <strong>72%</strong> of that band upward, leaving <strong>38</strong> points to the top.</p> <p>The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>78%</strong> of its <strong>3.06%</strong> band, also upward, and gold <strong>64%</strong> of <strong>2.40%</strong>. Energy has used <strong>47%</strong> downward and the bitcoin fund only <strong>16%</strong>, the quietest row on the board. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month rather than a week, and sits <strong>41%</strong> below its anchor.</p> <p>Three sessions remain to absorb what is left, with the Federal Reserve still to speak. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>13:30 CET</strong> the September advance goods trade balance.</li> <li><strong>14:45 CET</strong> the Bank of Canada rate decision, then at <strong>15:30 CET</strong> weekly US crude and product inventories.</li> <li><strong>19:00 CET</strong> the Federal Reserve decision, with Chair Warsh’s press conference at <strong>19:30 CET</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, UBS, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, KLA and FedEx.</li> <li><strong>Also today:</strong> the UK Autumn Budget, and overnight the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meetings move into view for Thursday.</li> </ul> <p>Europe left summer time on Sunday and the US has not, so the cash session runs <strong>14:30</strong> to <strong>21:00 CET</strong> until 1 November. The decision at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> therefore lands two hours before the close, inside the session, and today’s expiry settles at that close.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Five names are left to report and the spread between what is priced and what each has typically delivered runs from <strong>1.5x</strong> to <strong>0.7x</strong>. Apple is richest, <strong>3.6%</strong> priced into 2 November against an eight-report average of <strong>2.5%</strong>, and its premium rose half a point overnight. Alphabet sits at <strong>5.5%</strong> against <strong>4.1%</strong> and Novo Nordisk at <strong>6.6%</strong> against <strong>5.0%</strong>.</p> <p>Microsoft is the exception, and it reports tonight. Its <strong>4.7%</strong> sits against a <strong>7.0%</strong> history, the only name of the five priced below what it has usually done, on a record that includes moves of <strong>15.5%</strong> and <strong>10.0%</strong> in the last four.</p> <p>Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and Microsoft shows the gap. It carries a rank of <strong>48</strong> against a percentile of <strong>73</strong>, so its volatility is unremarkable for its own year while sitting above most individual days in it. Rank describes a year. The event premium describes one evening.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> S&P 500 options price <strong>46.40</strong> points, <strong>0.60%</strong>, for today’s expiry, which settles at the <strong>21:00 CET</strong> close and so contains the decision and the first reaction to it. Read before the US open, so indicative. The one-day gauge at <strong>12.53</strong> implies about <strong>0.8%</strong>, a one-sigma figure rather than an expected move, so the two do not disagree.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> the 30 October expiry prices <strong>88.30</strong> points, <strong>1.14%</strong>. Yesterday it read <strong>104.90</strong> with four sessions left, so decay alone would have left about <strong>91</strong>. About <strong>2.5</strong> points came out beyond the clock, against <strong>16</strong> the day before, so on that measure the draining has nearly stopped.</li> <li><strong>Where the week is priced:</strong> today’s <strong>0.60%</strong> against <strong>1.14%</strong> for all three sessions leaves about <strong>0.69%</strong> for each of Thursday and Friday, so today is the cheapest. In our view the market may see the decision as the smaller event, with Thursday holding US growth and inflation data, the European Central Bank and the reaction to tonight’s results from two of the index’s largest companies.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation fell for a second session to <strong>13.49</strong> and remains at the <strong>94th</strong> percentile of our store. In our view the level, which has held, may matter more than the direction: at that level, a surprise in one large name is more likely to travel across the index.</li> </ul> <p>In our view the two readings furthest from normal this morning, gold volatility at the <strong>6th</strong> percentile of its year and implied correlation at the <strong>94th</strong> of ours, are not about today. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/premium-leaves-a-fed-week---options-brief---27-october-2026-27102026" data-id="FAB18354E9B54C1386F39E0E9443323A" data-type="Article">Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/paying-for-the-index-not-the-names---options-brief---26-october-2026-26102026" data-id="4F714F044007477886E7272E487FC1C3" data-type="Article">Paying for the index not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---uk-autumn-budget-in-focus---28-october-2026-28102026" data-id="97ACE528D03D48CDA1DE61C744841F9D" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - UK Autumn Budget in focus - 28 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---anthropic-files-ipo-paperwork---27-october-2026-27102026" data-id="B4C5135A1C48496D8875C7273271ED5B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI spending refuses to slow: what SK Hynix and Broadcom reveal about the boom</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li > <p><strong><span>Memory remains in short supply:</span></strong><span> SK Hynix's record earnings show how AI demand continues to favour suppliers.</span></p> </li> <li > <p><span></span><strong ><span>The money keeps flowing:</span></strong><span > Broadcom's USD 63 billion financing deal shows infrastructure expansion is far from over.</span></p> </li> <li > <p><span ></span><strong ><span>Spending is not the same as profits:</span></strong><span > investors increasingly need to distinguish beneficiaries from those financing the boom.</span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>A volatile stock market can make artificial intelligence look like a boom losing momentum. The companies buying its infrastructure seem to disagree.</span></p> <p><span>On 28 October 2026, SK Hynix reported record earnings. Two days earlier, a <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bank-america-blackstone-citi-and-morgan-stanley-announce" target="_blank">USD 63 billion financing package was announced</a> to buy Broadcom chips for Anthropic. Together, they show that spending can grow even when share prices wobble. For investors, the question is who earns the profit and who carries the bill.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Memory is having its moment</span></strong></h3> <p><span>South Korea's SK Hynix makes memory chips for phones, servers and AI data centres. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) feeds data quickly to powerful AI processors, including those made by Nvidia. Even the fastest processor stalls when information arrives slowly.</span></p> <p><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-business-results/" target="_blank">Third-quarter </a>revenue climbed 328% to 104.6 trillion Korean won. Operating profit reached 83.3 trillion won, an extraordinary 80% operating margin. Agreements with 14 customers already cover more than half of planned production for 2027 and 2028.</span></p> <p><span>Scarcity gives suppliers pricing power. For SK Hynix, it lifts earnings. For customers, the same shortage raises costs. And with AI infrastructure still expanding, memory is becoming just as strategically important as the processors themselves.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The money behind the machines</span></strong></h3> <p><span>US chipmaker Broadcom designs specialised AI processors and networking equipment. On 26 October, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced USD 63 billion in financing to purchase Broadcom equipment for Anthropic, developer of the Claude AI assistant.</span></p> <p><span>The structure matters. A separate financing vehicle will buy the hardware and lease it to Anthropic, with deliveries expected from 2027. Broadcom also provides protection to senior lenders against falling equipment values.</span></p> <p><span>This is not Anthropic paying USD 63 billion upfront. It shows how financing is becoming as important as technology in sustaining the AI expansion.</span></p> <p><span>The arrangement supports Broadcom's sales but also introduces financial risks. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/s1-sec" target="_blank">Anthropic's proposed initial public offering (IPO)</a><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/s1-sec" target="_blank">,</a> filed on 26 October, will bring additional scrutiny to whether growing AI revenues can eventually justify these enormous commitments.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: the bills can outlast the boom</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Memory shortages will not last forever. New capacity or weaker demand could lower prices and margins. AI developers must also generate enough revenue to cover growing computing costs. And if specialised chips lose value faster than expected, supplier guarantees could prove costly.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Follow pricing power:</span></strong><span> watch memory prices and long-term orders, not just impressive quarterly profit figures.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Look beyond spending:</span></strong><span> compare AI developers' revenue growth with computing commitments and cash generation.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Mind concentration:</span></strong><span> check whether portfolio holdings depend on the same AI infrastructure spending cycle.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The boom is not the return</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The AI buildout does not have to stop for investors to become more selective. SK Hynix shows how shortages can translate into exceptional profits, while Broadcom shows how enormous new orders can be made possible through financing. Those are very different sources of value.</span></p> <p><span>Over time, more production may ease memory shortages and lower costs for AI developers. That would help buyers but could reduce the pricing power of today's suppliers. Meanwhile, cheaper computing only creates lasting value if customers are willing to pay for the services it supports.</span></p> <p><span>The question is no longer simply whether AI spending will continue. It is who will earn attractive returns once the bills come due.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>Initial Public Offering (IPO)</span> <span>IPO</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - UK Autumn Budget in focus - 28 October 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 07:19:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Central banks navigate inflation and growth risks as Middle East diplomacy faces uncertainty</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>:<strong> </strong>US equities climbed on AI strength, European markets advanced despite UK losses, Asian shares rose as Korean chipmakers surged.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Decision day volatility jumped while the broader gauges eased before the policy announcement</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Tokens and the listed complex firmed while the largest corporate holder paused its buying</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil rebounds on geopolitical risks, gold weakens ahead of Fed as wheat hits July low</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global sovereign bond yields edge higher, but high yield bonds rally.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: NZD tumbles as RBNZ forgoes expected hike. JPY and USD firm.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Ma</strong><strong>cro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>FOMC preview:</strong> The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, following September's 25-basis-point hike. Focus will be on any signals of another increase in December, with CME FedWatch currently pricing an 82.5% probability of higher rates by year-end. Since the September meeting, economic data have pointed to further labour market weakness alongside accelerating inflation, even excluding the energy-driven surge. This leaves the Fed facing an increasingly difficult balancing act between containing inflation and supporting employment.</li> <li><strong>Diverging monetary policy outlooks in Australia and New Zealand:</strong> Australian inflation accelerated in September, with headline CPI rising to 4.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in August. Housing inflation remained elevated at 5.2%, while transport costs surged 8.7%, partly reflecting higher fuel prices. The figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to raise interest rates further. Meanwhile, the <strong>Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by keeping its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%</strong>, against expectations of a hike. The decision, reached by a narrow 4–3 vote, reflected concerns about global uncertainty.</li> <li><strong>Israeli election uncertainty and renewed Middle East diplomacy:</strong> Israeli exit polls suggest a tight race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, with both camps projected to secure 51 parliamentary seats, leaving the outcome uncertain. Meanwhile, markets are assessing renewed diplomatic efforts after officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian leaders. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for an end to the current "neither war nor peace" situation while reiterating Tehran's conditions for ending the conflict, including the lifting of US sanctions and an end to the naval blockade.</li> <li><strong>COT reporting to move to twice weekly from December:</strong> The CFTC announced on Tuesday plans to double the publication frequency of its widely followed Commitments of Traders (COT) report. Currently released every Friday, the report provides a snapshot of positions held the previous Tuesday across futures and options markets, covering commodities, currencies, equity indices and interest rates. From December, the CFTC plans to publish reports every Wednesday and Friday, providing traders and investors with a more up to date picture of speculative positioning and changes in market sentiment. The increased frequency should help reduce the information lag, particularly during periods of heightened volatility when positions can shift rapidly.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h3> <ul> <li>1230 – US Sep. Advance Goods Trade Balance</li> <li>1345 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision</li> <li>1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories</li> <li>1800 – US FOMC Rate Decision</li> <li>1830 – US Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%, and the Dow was flat, as technology stocks led Wall Street higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. The semiconductor index surged 3.6%, its strongest gain in over a month, while Broadcom advanced 4% after a $63 billion financing deal supported plans to supply AI chips to Anthropic. However, Boeing plunged 10.7%, its worst day in six years, after disappointing earnings and delays to its aircraft production targets, while Coca-Cola slipped 1.6% despite beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook. </li> <li><strong>Europe: </strong>European equities advanced, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5%, the DAX gaining 0.7% and the CAC 40 adding 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.8% on disappointing earnings. Technology stocks led the gains, with Dutch chip equipment maker BE Semiconductor Industries surging 11.4% after Applied Materials announced plans to increase its stake. In London, HSBC dropped 5.4% following weaker-than-expected revenue. Mercedes-Benz declined 3.9% after lowering its profit guidance, highlighting continued weakness in China's car market ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities advanced on Wednesday, with South Korea's Kospi surging more than 6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times Index were little changed. Korean chipmakers led the rally after SK Hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, more than seven times last year's level, driven by strong demand for AI memory chips. SK Hynix climbed more than 10% during the session, while Japanese semiconductor stocks also benefited from renewed AI optimism. Attention now turns to Samsung's earnings and results from Alphabet and Microsoft for further evidence of sustained AI demand.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.52 | VIX FUTURES: 19.000 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.22) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Traders spent Tuesday buying protection for Wednesday's session and selling everything after it. The VIX eased to 17.52, while VIX1D rose almost a fifth to 12.53, enough to price a move of about 0.8% for the Fed session alone. Beyond today the curve lost premium across the board. Nine-day, Nasdaq and small-cap vol each fell 5% or more, and contango held out to the one-year gauge. </li> <li>The midterm hump in November futures has flattened, with November and December now almost level, as the Fed, Thursday's GDP and PCE, megacap earnings and the 3 November vote merge into one block of event risk. SKEW eased and MOVE dropped below 100, so rates vol confirmed the calmer tone.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~81,010 +0.29% | ETHEREUM ~2,358 +0.50% | IBIT 45.70 +1.06% | ETHA 53.03 +1.32% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto equities outran the tokens on Tuesday, led by the miners as Anthropic's IPO filing revived the AI-compute trade. Cipher Mining gained almost 10%, with IREN and Riot close to 8%. Investors are pricing their data-centre capacity more than their bitcoin exposure. Circle, Strategy and Coinbase rose between 1% and 2%, while XRP and Solana edged higher overnight.</li> <li> Strategy ended a five-week buying run and instead spent USD 204.9m buying back its STRC preferred below par. That comes ahead of today's shareholder vote on daily dividends and Thursday's results. Fund flows split by asset: bitcoin ETFs took in USD 110.3m, all of it through IBIT, while ether funds shed USD 88.6m.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude trades higher amid reports of renewed US warnings of military strikes that could derail tentative diplomatic efforts that calmed the market on Tuesday. With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated. Ultimately, both Washington and Tehran need to agree on the way forward and that road remains elusive for now, and until credible signs of de-escalation emerge, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with a substantial risk premium embedded in prices. Focus on EIA's weekly report, Israeli election, and FOMC. </li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>trades lower after an Asia rebound to USD 4070 ran out stem with rising yields and a firmer dollar ahead of today's FOMC meeting weighing on prices. Having rebounded from key technical support around USD 3,970, the tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, with bulls taking some comfort from the latest recovery and the market's ability to defend this important level. Resistance levels to watch: USD 4070 and 4230.</li> <li><strong>Wheat:</strong> Futures extended their decline on Tuesday, with the December contract trading near a 3½-month low amid currency-related pressure and a fading Black Sea risk premium. The latest weakness followed reports that Moscow is considering proposals to secure grain shipments through the region, raising hopes of improved export flows and reduced disruption risks. December futures have fallen to around USD 6.11 per bushel, the lowest since July and down 23% from the multi-year high reached only last month. </li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields </strong><strong>rose Tuesday and early Wednesday</strong><strong> ahead of the FOMC meeting. </strong><strong>Bloomberg discussed an analysis of US Treasury and State Department data</strong><strong> that noted a significant decrease in foreign purchases of US debt by nations</strong><strong> traditionally allied with the US. Japan</strong><strong>, for example, bought 99% less treasuries in the first eight months of this year relative to 2025.</strong> The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose overnight into early Wednesday in Europe, trading up 1.6 basis points from the Tuesday close at 4.75% as the market is pricing very low odds that the Fed will hike today. The 10-year benchmark treasury yield poked back above 5.00% overnight, rising almost three basis points to just above 5.02%.</li> <li><strong>US high yield corporate bonds rallied on broad strength in risk sentiment Tuesday</strong>, with the Bloomberg index of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightening fifteen basis point to 313 basis points.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>firmed </strong><strong>further Tuesday and early Wednesday</strong><strong> against the major European currencies</strong>, with the JPY a bit firmer in Wednesday’s Asian hours. EURUSD tested its recent 17-month low at 1.1113, while GBPUSD also dipped to a eight-day low well below 1.3300. USDJPY was steady just below 158.00 early Wednesday after rising Tuesday from 157.50, while EURJPY was heavy near recent cycle lows, trading around 175.50.</li> <li><strong>The RBNZ surprised market expectations by not hiking the </strong><strong>official cash rate</strong>, it cited concerns about the darkening global outlook and the rise in bond yields possibly triggering a downturn. The decision came even as the bank raised the near-term inflation forecast. <strong> </strong>The decision shocked NZD lower, sending AUDNZD from the 1.2370 area before the meeting to as high as 1.2600 at one point before it fell back to 1.2525, still a new 13-year high. NZDUSD plunged about -1.2% to near 0.5610 after trading 0.5680 before the meeting.</li> <li><strong>EURGBP trades near</strong><strong>17-month lows ahead of today’s Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey.</strong></li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AUD/NZD at 13-year highs: How far can the Aussie rally extend?</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Key takeaways:</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Australian inflation is heating up:</span></strong><span> Headline CPI rose to 4.3% in September, while underlying inflation reached 3.6%, reinforcing expectations of further RBA tightening.</span></li> <li><strong><span>RBNZ surprises with a hold:</span></strong><span> New Zealand's central bank kept rates at 2.75%, disappointing expectations for a hike, but its narrow 4–3 vote suggests a hawkish turn remains possible.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AUD/NZD targets 1.27–1.28:</span></strong><span> The cross has broken above 1.25, although stretched valuations and the possibility of a December RBNZ hike could limit further upside.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Why is the Aussie outperforming the kiwi?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The interest-rate story across the Tasman is shifting in Australia's favour.</span></p> <p><span>Australia's September headline inflation accelerated to <strong>4.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in August</strong>, while trimmed mean inflation, a measure of underlying price pressures, increased to <strong>3.6% from a revised 3.5%</strong>. Housing inflation remained elevated at 5.2%, while transport prices surged 8.7%, reflecting higher fuel costs.</span></p> <p><span>The figures suggest Australia's inflation problem is not going away quickly, strengthening expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to raise rates further.</span></p> <p><span>Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets by holding its policy rate at 2.75%, rather than delivering the widely anticipated hike.</span></p> <p><span>That has shifted the relative interest-rate outlook in favour of the Aussie. However, <strong>the RBNZ's narrow 4–3 vote is an important warning against becoming too bearish on the kiwi</strong>. It suggests the central bank remains close to tightening, with another opportunity in December. If the RBNZ turns more hawkish, the expected interest-rate gap between Australia and New Zealand could narrow again, helping NZD recover.</span></p> <p><span>For currency markets, it is not just the direction of interest rates that matters, but also the timing and speed of policy changes.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>AUD/NZD outlook: Is 1.28 the next stop?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AUD/NZD has climbed above 1.25, reaching levels last seen in 2013. The move has also taken the pair above significant long-term technical resistance around 1.2354.</span></p> <p><span>The technical picture now suggests:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>1.27–1.28:</span></strong><span> Potential upside target over the next 1–3 months if RBA hawkishness persists.</span></li> <li><strong><span>1.29:</span></strong><span> A longer-term possibility if the policy divergence widens further.</span></li> <li><strong><span>1.2350:</span></strong><span> Important support. A sustained break below this level could signal fading bullish momentum.</span></li> </ul> <span></span> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What could derail the Aussie rally?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The biggest risk is that markets have moved too quickly in pricing the divergence. AUD/NZD is already trading above levels historically suggested by relative interest rates, leaving it vulnerable to a reversal.</span></p> <p><span>The RBNZ's close vote is particularly important. <strong>A December rate hike, or even increasingly hawkish guidance before then, could narrow the expected policy-rate gap and trigger a kiwi rebound.</strong> Likewise, any signs of cooling Australian inflation could reduce expectations of further RBA tightening.</span></p> <p><span>Higher oil prices add another complication. They could keep Australian inflation elevated, but also weaken global risk appetite and weigh on both currencies.</span></p> <p><strong ><span>Bottom line:</span></strong><span > We see scope for AUD/NZD to extend towards 1.27–1.28, supported by Australia's inflation outlook and the technical breakout. However, this is not necessarily a sustained one-way trade. The RBNZ is still in the tightening game, and if it moves more decisively in December, the relative-rate story could shift back in the kiwi's favour. After the sharp rally, pullbacks may offer better risk-reward than chasing the move.</span></p> <p><em ><span>The targets are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed price outcomes. This commentary is for general information and does not constitute personalised investment advice.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>5 stocks that could benefit from the IPO boom</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Anthropic's blockbuster IPO plans and OpenAI's potential market debut are putting the spotlight back on new listings. But investors don't necessarily need to own the companies going public to explore the opportunity. From investment banks to stock exchanges, five listed businesses could benefit if IPO activity picks up.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Could the next IPO boom create opportunities beyond the companies going public?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Everyone wants a piece of the next big IPO.</span></p> <p><span>Anthropic's filing on 26 October has intensified interest in one of the most anticipated public listings in years. The company has applied to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with market speculation suggesting a valuation that could reach $1.5 trillion or more.</span></p> <p><span>Meanwhile, OpenAI has also taken steps towards a potential listing, although its timing remains uncertain.</span></p> <p><span>The excitement follows SpaceX's record-breaking IPO earlier this year and reflects growing investor appetite for access to some of the world's largest private companies.</span></p> <p><span>But there is another way to look at the IPO opportunity.</span></p> <p><span>While investors compete for allocations in the next blockbuster listing, the <strong>financial institutions arranging these deals can earn fees</strong> from bringing companies to market.</span></p> <p><span>Investment banks manage offerings, market shares to institutional investors and help determine pricing. Stock exchanges provide the infrastructure for listings and subsequent trading.</span></p> <p><span>And if a successful IPO encourages more private companies to list, the opportunity could extend beyond a single transaction.</span></p> <p><span>However, the broader IPO market remains fragile. Rising bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty and volatile technology valuations have prompted several companies to delay their offerings.</span></p> <p><span>The question is whether Anthropic's listing marks the beginning of a wider recovery, or remains an exceptional deal in an otherwise challenging market.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>How can listed companies benefit from an IPO revival?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are two main business models to consider.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investment banks earn fees from bringing companies to market.</span></strong><span> They advise issuers, coordinate investor demand and underwrite the shares. Their revenue opportunities depend on the size of offerings, their role in the syndicate and the fees negotiated.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Stock exchanges earn revenue from listings and related services.</span></strong><span> They can benefit from new issuers, recurring listing fees, market data and trading activity. However, listing fees may represent only a small portion of their overall revenue.</span></p> <p><span>We identified five companies with direct involvement in Anthropic's proposed IPO or established exposure to equity underwriting and listing activity.</span></p> <p><span>The selection is based on disclosed underwriting roles, relevant business exposure and recent financial results, not a claim that these companies have already received material revenue from the upcoming offering.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Five stocks to watch as the IPO market evolves</span></strong></h3> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p><strong><span>Company</span></strong></p> </td> <td> <p ><strong><span>Ticker</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Why it could benefit</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Goldman Sachs</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>GS</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Lead underwriter of Anthropic's proposed IPO, with a major global equity capital-markets franchise</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Morgan Stanley</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>MS</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Co-lead underwriter, with exposure to investment banking and institutional trading</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Jefferies Financial</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>JEF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Named underwriting syndicate member, with rapidly growing equity-underwriting revenue</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Nasdaq</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>NDAQ</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Anthropic's intended listing exchange, with exposure to listing services, market data and financial technology</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>JPMorgan Chase</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>JPM</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Named syndicate member and a leading global investment bank</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Goldman Sachs (GS): At the centre of the biggest deals</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Goldman Sachs is one of the clearest direct beneficiaries to monitor because it has been named a lead representative of Anthropic's underwriting syndicate.</span></p> <p><span>Lead banks typically coordinate marketing, pricing and share allocation, putting them in a stronger position to earn fees than smaller syndicate participants.</span></p> <p><span>Goldman's broader investment-banking franchise could also benefit if successful mega-IPOs encourage other companies to access public markets.</span></p> <p><span>The bank reported third-quarter revenue of $18.68 billion and earnings per share of $17.01, demonstrating the scale of its existing operations.</span></p> <p><span>However, investors should remember that even a very large IPO represents only one transaction within a diversified financial institution.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Morgan Stanley (MS): Underwriting meets institutional demand</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Morgan Stanley is the other lead representative named in Anthropic's IPO filing.</span></p> <p><span>Its institutional securities business combines investment banking with equities trading and client services, giving it exposure to both the initial offering and broader market activity.</span></p> <p><span>Morgan Stanley reported third-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion and earnings per share of $3.03, supported by strength in its institutional securities and wealth-management businesses.</span></p> <p><span>A revival in IPO activity could support underwriting fees, while greater investor participation may benefit its equities franchise.</span></p> <p><span>But investment banking is only one part of Morgan Stanley's earnings, and a single deal is unlikely to determine its overall financial performance.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Jefferies Financial (JEF): A more focused capital-markets opportunity</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Jefferies offers a different proposition.</span></p> <p><span>The firm is smaller than the largest universal banks and has significant exposure to investment banking and institutional trading.</span></p> <p><span>It is also named in Anthropic's underwriting syndicate, although its eventual fee allocation has not been disclosed.</span></p> <p><span>Importantly, there is already evidence of improving business momentum.</span></p> <p><span>Jefferies reported third-quarter equity-underwriting revenue of approximately $306 million, up 69% year-on-year. Total investment-banking revenue increased 17% to $1.33 billion.</span></p> <p><span>That makes Jefferies an interesting company to monitor if equity issuance accelerates.</span></p> <p><span>However, greater exposure to capital-markets activity can work in both directions. If IPOs are postponed or dealmaking slows, earnings may become more volatile.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Nasdaq (NDAQ): The exchange behind the listing</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Anthropic has applied to list on Nasdaq, making the exchange operator a direct participant in the proposed transaction.</span></p> <p><span>Nasdaq earns revenue from a broader range of activities than simply listing new companies, including market data, indexes, trading infrastructure and financial technology.</span></p> <p><span>Its third-quarter results showed capital-access-platform revenue rising 20% year-on-year to $641 million, while total net revenue increased 13%.</span></p> <p><span>That provides evidence of growth in the broader business.</span></p> <p><span>However, investors should not assume that one enormous IPO will transform Nasdaq's earnings. Listing-related fees are only one component of its revenue, and the exchange reported fewer operating-company IPOs in the third quarter than a year earlier.</span></p> <p><span>A sustained recovery in listings would be more meaningful than any single debut.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Scale across the capital-markets cycle</span></strong></h3> <p><span>JPMorgan is another named member of Anthropic's underwriting syndicate.</span></p> <p><span>Its corporate and investment bank has a substantial global underwriting franchise, with investment-banking fees rising 14% year-on-year in the third quarter.</span></p> <p><span>The bank also reported 49% growth in equities trading revenue, illustrating how capital-markets activity can support earnings beyond underwriting alone.</span></p> <p><span>A broader IPO recovery could provide another source of fee income.</span></p> <p><span>However, JPMorgan is highly diversified across consumer banking, lending, payments and asset management. Its investment case cannot be reduced to the IPO cycle, and any incremental revenue from a single transaction is likely to be relatively small compared with group earnings.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What should investors watch?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The most important question is not simply how much money Anthropic raises.</span></p> <p><span>It is whether a successful listing encourages other private companies to follow.</span></p> <p><span>Three indicators could help investors assess the strength of an IPO recovery.</span></p> <p><strong><span>1. IPO volumes and proceeds.</span></strong><span> Are more companies successfully completing offerings, or is activity concentrated in a handful of mega-deals?</span></p> <p><strong><span>2. Investment-banking fees.</span></strong><span> Are banks reporting sustained growth in equity-underwriting revenue and improving deal pipelines?</span></p> <p><strong><span>3. Post-listing performance.</span></strong><span> Are newly listed companies performing well enough to encourage other issuers and attract long-term investors?</span></p> <p><span>These indicators matter because a large IPO can generate significant attention without necessarily creating a sustained recovery in capital-markets activity.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What could go wrong?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are several risks to the IPO revival thesis.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Listings could be delayed.</span></strong><span> Higher bond yields, market volatility and uncertainty around technology valuations could discourage companies from going public.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Underwriting fees may be less significant than expected.</span></strong><span> Even a record-sized IPO does not guarantee a transformational earnings contribution, particularly when fees are shared across a large syndicate.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Strong IPO demand may not translate into strong stock performance.</span></strong><span> Investment banks and exchanges have multiple earnings drivers, while valuations may already reflect expectations of improving capital-markets activity.</span></p> <p><strong><span>A weak debut could damage sentiment.</span></strong><span> If a highly anticipated IPO performs poorly, other companies may postpone their plans.</span></p> <p><span>There is also a distinction between benefiting from the IPO process and benefiting from the long-term performance of the newly listed company. Underwriters generally earn fees for arranging transactions, not because the issuer's shares subsequently rise.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What this means for investors</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The potential listings of Anthropic and OpenAI are attracting enormous attention, but the investment opportunity may extend beyond the companies themselves.</span></p> <p><span>Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Nasdaq and JPMorgan provide different forms of exposure to the capital-markets ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>Some have confirmed roles in Anthropic's proposed IPO. Others have already reported improving underwriting or capital-markets revenue.</span></p> <p><span>But <strong>the bigger opportunity depends on whether blockbuster listings can revive the broader IPO market—not simply whether one company achieves a record valuation.</strong></span></p> <p><span>For investors, these five stocks offer a starting point to explore the financial businesses behind the next wave of public listings, while keeping an eye on valuations, earnings momentum and the risks of a delayed IPO recovery.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>All ideas</span> <span>Thematic</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 28 October, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:39:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Australia CPI accelerates to 4.3%. US durable goods orders rise 1.8%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>SOX index gained 3.6% while Boeing falls 10.7% as tech outperforms</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>RBNZ holds OCR at 2.75%; NZDUSD breaks below 0.56</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>WTI falls below $100 while gold rebounded off $4,000</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span>US Treasury curve twist flattens with 10 year near 5%</li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span><span> </span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Israeli exit polls showed opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu</span></strong></span><span>, with no clear majority and weaker support for Netanyahu.<strong> Markets also weighed new diplomacy after Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials met Iranian leaders</strong>, as Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei urged an end to the “neither war nor peace” status quo.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Australia Q3 trimmed mean CPI rises 3.7% y/y vs 3.6%</span></strong></span><span> est; +1.0% q/q in line. Hotter core inflation bolsters RBA hike case.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US new single-family home sales fell 0.6% in September 2026 to 676,000</span></strong></span><span> annualized, just below August’s 680,000 but above the 650,000 forecast, as high mortgage rates and inflation hit affordability. Sales dropped in the South and Midwest but rose in the West and Northeast. Inventory fell to 476,000 homes (8.4 months), and the median price rose to a three-month high of $400,400.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US durable goods orders rose 1.8% m/m in September 2026</span></strong></span><span>, above the 1.5% forecast, driven by a 4.6% jump in transportation, including a 28.4% surge in civilian aircraft. Ex-transportation, orders increased 0.5%; ex-defense, 2.2%. Core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) were up 0.5%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US new single-family home sales slipped 0.6% in September 2026</span></strong></span><span> to 676,000 annualized, just below August’s 680,000 but above the 650,000 forecast. Sales fell in the South and Midwest, rose in the West and Northeast, inventory declined to 476,000 homes (8.4 months), and the median price reached a three-month high of $400,400.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.7% y/y in August 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the fastest since May 2025 and above the 2.5% forecast. Chicago, New York, and Cleveland led gains, while Seattle, Las Vegas, and Denver declined. Prices fell 0.4% m/m but rose 0.3% in real terms, with affordability still pressured by high costs and mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong ><span>Equities: </span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> US equities rallied on Tuesday, led by technology and AI-related names. S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% to 26,477.81, and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.16% to 2,818.87. The Dow was essentially flat, adding just 0.03% to 52,377.57. <strong>The SOX semiconductor index surged 3.6%, its best day in over a month</strong>. Key movers included SoFi Technologies (+13.4%), Credo Technology (+10.8%), Astera Labs (+10.5%), and Cerebras Systems (+10.1%). <strong>Boeing shares saw their worst one-day drop of 10.69% in six years, while Coca cola down 1.6% after beating earnings estimates and raising full year outlook. </strong>In after-hours, NXP Semiconductors tumbled 7.5% after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, while Logitech fell 7.0% after flagging a $70–80 million Q3 sales headwind from a semiconductor supplier facility shutdown.</li> <li><strong>EU:</strong> European equities were broadly higher, with the AI and tech rally providing a tailwind. The DAX rose 0.71% to 25,590.77, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.79% to 6,164.69, and the CAC 40 added 0.51% to 7,887.14. The FTSE 100 was the outlier, falling 0.75% to 10,686.54, weighed by Reckitt Benckiser, which dropped as much as 7.9% after cutting its full-year sales forecast following a Lysol manufacturing disruption. <strong>Mercedes-Benz cut its profit guidance, joining BMW and Volkswagen in citing a deteriorating China market</strong>. Ferretti slid as much as 9.6% after cutting profitability guidance. Alfa Laval edged higher after a significant beat on orders driven by data centre and semiconductor demand.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities advanced broadly, tracking Wall Street's AI-driven rally and buoyed by SK Hynix's blowout earnings. <strong>The KOSPI surged 3.20% to 5,827.24, with SK Hynix rising as much as 3.7% and Samsung Electronics up as much as 4.3% in sympathy</strong>. Naver rose 5.0% on heavy volume. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.25% to 64,065.33, though Asahi Group fell 3.3% and Otsuka Corp declined 4.1%. The Hang Seng was flat at 23,041.32, with Suzhou Dongshan Precision's HK debut falling as much as 12% in grey market trading after pricing at a 35% discount to its Shenzhen-listed shares. The STI closed at 5,397.03, with no significant change on the day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Wednesday<strong>: Alphabet, Microsoft</strong>, Ford, Ping An Insurance, PetroChina, Hitachi, SK Hynix</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Intel, Amazon, BYD, Denso, Keyence, Wilmar International</span></li> <li><span>Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>EURUSD</strong> fell 0.44% to around 1.1137, the largest G10 decline on the day, as the dollar strengthened ahead of the Fed decision. Concerns over France's reliance on foreign investors in its debt market added to euro headwinds.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY</strong> rose 0.29% to near 157.97, approaching the 158 level, as lower oil prices and gains in US equities prompted dollar buying. Traders remain cautious ahead of both the FOMC and Bank of Japan policy meetings.</li> <li><strong>GBPUSD</strong> slipped 0.27% as sterling faced headwinds ahead of the UK budget announcement. Options markets implied a breakeven of around 65 pips, with the October 22 high at 1.3419 seen as outside the implied move.</li> <li>RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.75% in a surprise 4–3 vote, citing global uncertainty and defying most forecasts (only 2/25 expected a hold); <strong>NZD </strong>fell as much as 1.7% to 55.86 US cents; no new projections, governor to speak at 3 p.m. local.</li> <li><strong>Philippine peso</strong> hit a record low of 64 per dollar, making it Asia's worst-performing currency this year, as elevated crude oil prices weighed on the net energy importer. <strong>Thai baht</strong> traded near an 18-month trough, while the<strong> Korean won</strong> outperformed on the back of strong GDP data and the KOSPI rally. <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> </li> <li><strong>WTI crude</strong> fell 1.83% to $99.90/bbl and Brent declined 1.67% to $113.88/bbl on Tuesday, as diplomatic signals around a potential Iran ceasefire eased geopolitical risk premiums. Reports that the Trump administration may allow more Russian diesel exports onto global markets also weighed on sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>rebounded 1.08% to $4,060.13/oz after briefly dipping below the $4,000 level in prior sessions, as bargain hunters returned ahead of the Fed decision. Lower Treasury yields and easing oil prices provided additional support.</li> <li><strong>LME 3-month copper </strong>rose 1.03% to $14,474.50/mt, supported by AI infrastructure demand optimism, though analysts note the metal's traditional role as a macro barometer is increasingly complicated by its sensitivity to AI trade dynamics and elevated interest rates.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Treasuries</strong> ended mixed. The 2-year yield rose 1.7bps to 4.739%, the 10-year edged up 1.0bp to 5.001%, and the 30-year gained 0.8bps to 5.314%. The curve twist-flattened around the 10-year, with the front-end and belly underperforming. The 5s30s spread narrowed to approximately 46bps from 48bps. Activity was muted ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting.</li> <li>The Treasury sold $70 billion in 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.845%, tailing the when-issued yield by 0.4bps — the tenor's 12th consecutive weak result, though demand improved meaningfully from last month's 5.033% stop.</li> <li>Analysts warn that bullish Treasury positioning is vulnerable to a sharp reversal if Fed Chair Warsh delivers hawkish messaging on inflation at Wednesday's meeting. Bond investors are also growing sceptical that potential post-midterm gridlock will ease US fiscal deficit concerns, as it has historically.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Premium leaves a Fed week - Options Brief - 27 October 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">One quiet session took almost a fifth out of the range the option market had priced for this week. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and three of the index’s largest results are all still inside it.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Monday’s rally did not only lift the index, it took premium out of the four sessions that follow it, and those sessions still hold a Federal Reserve decision.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 18.39 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.97) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.120</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p><strong>The short version.</strong> Friday’s expiry is priced at <strong>104.90</strong> S&P 500 points this morning, <strong>1.37%</strong>, against <strong>135.65</strong> read from the same chain by the same method twenty-four hours earlier. Four sessions remain where five did, and the clock alone would have left roughly <strong>121</strong>. About <strong>16</strong> points came out on top of that. The contract still contains Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the results of three of the index’s largest companies.</p> <p><strong>Markets.</strong> The S&P 500 closed at <strong>7,676.77</strong>, up <strong>0.70%</strong>, and the Nasdaq 100 at <strong>29,273.40</strong>, up <strong>1.09%</strong>, after Anthropic filed to list and revived appetite for artificial intelligence names. The equal-weighted index rose <strong>0.35%</strong>, half the cap-weighted move, because the largest names split: Tesla gained <strong>5.21%</strong>, Nvidia <strong>2.39%</strong> and Microsoft <strong>1.54%</strong>, while Meta fell <strong>1.88%</strong>, Apple <strong>1.10%</strong> and Alphabet <strong>1.06%</strong>. Europe closed broadly higher and Asia followed on Tuesday, the Kospi up <strong>3.75%</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Volatility curve.</strong> The one-day gauge dropped to <strong>10.49</strong>, into the bottom fifth of its own range, while the three-month gauge barely moved at <strong>19.94</strong>. The ratio between them fell to <strong>0.57</strong> from <strong>0.86</strong>, so a single session is now priced at little more than half a month.</p> <p><strong>Single names.</strong> On an identical <strong>524</strong> underlyings the median implied-volatility rank eased to <strong>45.9</strong> from <strong>47.7</strong>. The fall sat in index products rather than in operating companies, and the names that gained rank have reports attached.</p> <p><strong>Flow.</strong> Monday’s positioning leans against the calm. Index puts and index volatility calls were bought outright while the cash market rallied, and downside was bought in Meta and across semiconductors. The sector, rates and commodity tapes carried no readable direction.</p> <p><strong>This week’s range.</strong> The option market priced <strong>137.05</strong> points around Friday’s close for the week. One session of five is complete and <strong>39%</strong> of that band has been used, to the upside.</p> <p><strong>Earnings and catalysts.</strong> The spread between what is priced and each name’s own eight-report history runs from <strong>1.4x</strong> at Novo Nordisk to <strong>0.7x</strong> at Microsoft, which reports on Wednesday. Today brings US durable goods orders and consumer confidence, and the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins.</p> <p><strong>What it adds up to.</strong> Today’s expiry prices <strong>0.49%</strong> and Friday’s <strong>1.37%</strong>. In our view the more interesting number may be the one that moved: implied correlation fell <strong>7.00%</strong> to <strong>13.95</strong>, off the highest reading in our store, while dispersion rose <strong>2.95%</strong> to <strong>38.02</strong>. The week may therefore be priced as a set of separate company events rather than as one index event, even though the macro calendar inside it has not changed. Monday’s flow, which bought index protection into the rally, argues the other way.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Anthropic filed its listing paperwork and the artificial intelligence trade reopened. Semiconductors led, the Philadelphia index up <strong>2.8%</strong>, and the move carried into Asia on Tuesday, where SoftBank rose around <strong>5%</strong> and the Kospi gained more than <strong>3%</strong> on memory demand.</p> <p>Underneath the index, Monday was not one trade. Tesla rose <strong>5.21%</strong> on a broker upgrade that pointed to a possible combination with SpaceX. Meta fell <strong>1.88%</strong> after setting out plans to raise up to <strong>95 billion dollars</strong> to fund its own artificial intelligence build. One name was repriced on what it might receive, the other on what it has to spend.</p> <p>Away from equities, renewed Middle East diplomacy eased the crude premium and Brent traded below <strong>115 dollars</strong>. In Brazil a surprise election result took the real down close to <strong>9%</strong>, pulling sugar <strong>5.6%</strong> and coffee <strong>3.7%</strong> lower.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Monday 26 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,676.77</strong>, up <strong>0.70%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,273.40</strong>, up <strong>1.09%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,361.58</strong>, up <strong>0.28%</strong>. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>0.35%</strong>, half the cap-weighted move, because the largest names split: Tesla gained <strong>5.21%</strong>, Nvidia <strong>2.39%</strong> and Microsoft <strong>1.54%</strong>, while Meta fell <strong>1.88%</strong>, Apple <strong>1.10%</strong> and Alphabet <strong>1.06%</strong>. Technology gained <strong>1.69%</strong>, while communication services fell <strong>1.57%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.77%</strong> to <strong>640.67</strong>, the DAX <strong>0.91%</strong> to <strong>25,410.84</strong>, the CAC 40 <strong>0.83%</strong> and euro-zone banks <strong>1.27%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Tuesday morning):</strong> the Nikkei 225 rose <strong>1.7%</strong> and the Kospi <strong>3.75%</strong> to <strong>5,674.71</strong>, the Hang Seng eased <strong>0.14%</strong> and the CSI 300 <strong>0.13%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent traded below <strong>115</strong> and WTI near <strong>101</strong> on diplomacy. Gold held just above <strong>4,030</strong> while silver fell to an eleven-month low at <strong>53.75</strong>, lifting the gold to silver ratio to <strong>75.0</strong>. The two-year Treasury yield closed near <strong>4.72%</strong> and the ten-year near <strong>4.99%</strong>, both easing on Tuesday. Bitcoin traded near <strong>79,638</strong>, the largest bitcoin fund at <strong>45.22</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> neutral and choppy, the VIX at <strong>18.39</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>150.97</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Index levels and volatility readings from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 27 October 2026, which carries Monday’s US closes; rates, oil and single-stock detail from the same-morning Saxo Market Quick Take. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The curve did not come down, the front of it did. Against the <strong>105</strong> sessions we hold back to 15 June, the nine-day gauge at <strong>17.92</strong> sits high in its range and the three-month at <strong>19.94</strong> above its <strong>18.96</strong> median, while the one-day gauge at <strong>10.49</strong> has dropped into the bottom fifth of its. One session has been taken out; the shape beyond it is intact.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.57</strong> from <strong>0.86</strong>, so a single session is priced at little more than half a month. VIX3M/VIX rose to <strong>1.08</strong> from <strong>1.05</strong>, steepening again after last week’s flattening. VXN/VIX eased to <strong>1.43</strong>.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> November leads at <strong>19.120</strong>, a premium of <strong>0.73</strong> to spot against a flat Friday, with December just above at <strong>19.170</strong>. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returned <strong>19.17</strong> and on the 16 December options <strong>19.20</strong>, consistent across the nearest five strikes, so contract identity holds and the November hump has flattened into shallow contango.</p> <p><strong>Correlation and tails.</strong> Implied correlation fell <strong>7.00%</strong> to <strong>13.95</strong>, a session after printing <strong>15.00</strong>, the highest in our store, and dispersion rose <strong>2.95%</strong> to <strong>38.02</strong>. SKEW eased to <strong>150.97</strong>, above its <strong>145.66</strong> median, the bond gauge held at <strong>102.20</strong> near the top of its range and gold volatility at <strong>23.55</strong> near the bottom of its own.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>The index measures above did the moving again, and this time the names followed a little. On an identical universe of <strong>524</strong> underlyings, so none of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank eased to <strong>45.9</strong> from <strong>47.7</strong>. The mean was unchanged at <strong>48.8</strong>, and the median percentile held at <strong>64.7</strong>, so the distribution shifted rather than the whole population.</p> <p>Where rank fell, it fell in index products rather than in operating companies. The Nasdaq 100 fund lost <strong>15.1</strong> points of rank and the communication services fund <strong>18.4</strong>, both of which price baskets. Where rank rose, a report explains it: T-Mobile US gained <strong>10.7</strong> points into Wednesday’s release, Siemens Energy <strong>20.8</strong> and Corbion <strong>21.8</strong>.</p> <p>That split is the correlation reading in a second dataset. Premium is leaving the instruments that price the index as one object and staying in the ones that price a single company’s afternoon.</p> <p>A note on what rank measures. The typical name carries a rank of <strong>45.9</strong> and a percentile of <strong>64.7</strong> at the same time. Rank says how far implied volatility sits from the extremes of its own year; percentile says how many days in that year were lower. A name whose volatility spent most of the year in a narrow band and spiked once will read low on the first and high on the second.</p> <p><em>Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 26 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> leaned defensive against a rising tape. Downside was bought on the ask in Meta and across semiconductors on the session the semiconductor complex rallied, while November upside was sold on the bid in Meta and Broadcom. Most of the remaining premium was paired structure and mid-market prints with no aggressor side.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> gave one clean reading and little else: index puts and index volatility calls were bought outright in the large index funds, which both the market and semiconductor reports label as hedging into an event week. Rates, risk-off, financials, metals and crypto tapes carried no readable direction.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close, with Monday’s close marked inside it. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The S&P 500 opened the week with <strong>137.05</strong> points priced around Friday’s close, <strong>1.80%</strong>, from <strong>7,486.63</strong> to <strong>7,760.73</strong>. Monday’s close at <strong>7,676.77</strong> used <strong>39%</strong> of that band upward, leaving <strong>84</strong> points to the top and <strong>190</strong> to the bottom.</p> <p>The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>36%</strong> of its <strong>3.06%</strong> band, also upward, while the bitcoin fund has used <strong>44%</strong> of its <strong>3.61%</strong> band downward, the only row leaning that way. Gold has used <strong>14%</strong> of <strong>2.40%</strong>, energy <strong>13%</strong> of <strong>3.43%</strong>. The volatility row uses the 18 November expiry, so it measures a month, and sits <strong>23%</strong> below its anchor.</p> <p>What matters now is that the band itself has since been marked down, as the pricing section sets out.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>13:30 CET</strong> preliminary September durable goods orders, forecast <strong>1.5%</strong> after a flat month.</li> <li><strong>14:00 CET</strong> the August house price index, then at <strong>15:00 CET</strong> the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October consumer confidence, forecast <strong>81.0</strong> after <strong>81.9</strong>, and new home sales.</li> <li><strong>18:00 CET</strong> the US Treasury auctions five-year notes after soft demand at the two-year sale.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Visa, Coca-Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing and S&P Global.</li> <li><strong>Overnight:</strong> Australian inflation, then the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.</li> </ul> <p>The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins today. Europe left summer time on Sunday and the US has not, so the cash session runs <strong>14:30</strong> to <strong>21:00 CET</strong> until 1 November: Wednesday’s decision at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> sits two hours before the close, inside the session, with the press conference at <strong>19:30</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The spread between what is priced and what each name has done has narrowed to <strong>1.4x</strong> at one end and <strong>0.7x</strong> at the other. Novo Nordisk is richest, <strong>7.1%</strong> priced into 4 November against an eight-report average of <strong>5.0%</strong>. Microsoft is cheapest, <strong>4.7%</strong> into Wednesday against a <strong>7.0%</strong> history, which is the one name of the five reporting this week priced below what it has typically delivered. Alphabet sits at <strong>5.4%</strong> against <strong>4.1%</strong> and Amazon at <strong>7.1%</strong> against <strong>6.2%</strong>.</p> <p>Rank and the event premium answer different questions. Amazon carries the highest rank of the group at <strong>74</strong> and prices <strong>7.1%</strong>; Novo Nordisk has the lowest at <strong>36</strong> and the richest event premium, <strong>1.4x</strong> its own history. Rank describes where a name’s volatility sits in its year. The event premium describes one afternoon.</p> <p>Next are UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday and Apple on Monday 2 November.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> S&P 500 options price <strong>37.80</strong> points, <strong>0.49%</strong>, for today’s expiry, from the at-the-money straddle on the Saxo chain centred on put-call parity. Yesterday’s edition quoted a different contract, so no like-for-like comparison applies.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> the 30 October expiry prices <strong>104.90</strong> points, <strong>1.37%</strong>. Read the same way yesterday morning it was <strong>135.65</strong> with five sessions left; four remain, so the clock alone would have left about <strong>121</strong>. Roughly <strong>16</strong> points have come out beyond decay, and the contract still holds the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and three large results.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation fell <strong>7.00%</strong> to <strong>13.95</strong>, one session after printing the highest reading in our store at <strong>15.00</strong>, while dispersion rose <strong>2.95%</strong> to <strong>38.02</strong>. In our view the market may have stopped paying for the index to move as one block and started paying for the names to separate.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal:</strong> SKEW at <strong>150.97</strong> held above its <strong>145.66</strong> median even as the one-day gauge collapsed. The cost of the far wing may be behaving independently of the cost of the next session.</li> </ul> <p>In our view the question this morning may be whether a week can get cheaper while its calendar stays the same. The premium left the whole contract rather than one day of it, and the correlation and dispersion readings suggest the market may expect Wednesday and Thursday to be paid for name by name. Flow, which bought index protection into the rally, argues the other way. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/paying-for-the-index-not-the-names---options-brief---26-october-2026-26102026" data-id="4F714F044007477886E7272E487FC1C3" data-type="Article">Paying for the index not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/three-per-cent-of-the-range-one-session-left---options-brief---23-october-2026-23102026" data-id="99571F8BFD524349BBE8DA0C12EDB665" data-type="Article">Three per cent of the range one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---anthropic-files-ipo-paperwork---27-october-2026-27102026" data-id="B4C5135A1C48496D8875C7273271ED5B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---big-week-ahead-as-fomc-ecb-and-boj-all-to-meet---26-october-2026-26102026" data-id="087A6DD1A6FF4C918B5A29CD5791B86E" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Big Tech earnings preview: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft face the $1 trillion AI question</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <strong>AI spending faces a reality check:</strong> investors want evidence that record infrastructure investment can generate lasting profits. </li> <li> <strong>Cloud growth holds the clues:</strong> Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft must demonstrate that AI demand translates into profitable business. </li> <li> <strong>Expectations matter:</strong> strong earnings may disappoint if spending rises faster than cash generation. </li> </ul> <hr /> <p>The artificial intelligence race is becoming extraordinarily expensive. And this week, three of its biggest participants face a familiar question: when will the investment start paying off?</p> <p>Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by Amazon on Thursday, 29 October, all after US markets close.</p> <p>The stakes extend well beyond three quarterly reports. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/10/microsoft-and-alphabet-earnings-previews" target="_blank">According to S&P Global</a>, major cloud and technology companies are expected to invest around 763 billion USD in infrastructure in 2026, potentially rising to 1.3 trillion USD in 2027.</p> <p>These are forecasts, not committed spending. Still, they illustrate an important shift. Investors already know that AI is attracting enormous investment. Now they want to understand how much profit that investment can produce.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Three companies, three different tests</strong></h3> <p>The three technology giants share an ambition to become essential providers of AI infrastructure. But their businesses, growth rates and challenges differ.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4" ><strong>Cloud revenue growth in the latest reported quarter</strong></h4></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg. Year-on-year growth for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI. </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"><strong><span>Microsoft: can AI growth justify the spending?</span></strong></p> <p><span>Microsoft sells business software and operates Azure, one of the world's largest cloud platforms.</span></p> <p><span>Azure revenue grew 43% in the June quarter. For the upcoming quarter, management expects growth of 44% to 45% in constant currency, meaning exchange-rate movements are excluded.</span></p> <p><span>Demand appears strong, but growth comes at a cost. Microsoft expects quarterly capital expenditure, or spending on long-term assets such as data centres, to exceed 50 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>The question is whether growing Azure demand and paid adoption of tools such as Microsoft 365 Copilot can offset the rising costs of delivering AI services.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Alphabet: can cloud profits catch up with growth?</span></strong></p> <p><span>Alphabet owns Google, whose businesses include Search, YouTube and Google Cloud.</span></p> <p><span>Google Cloud revenue surged 82% in the June quarter, making it the fastest-growing of the three cloud businesses. Investors will now watch whether operating profits can keep pace as the company adds expensive computing capacity.</span></p> <p><span>Alphabet also faces a second challenge. AI-powered search could encourage more searches and new advertising opportunities, but it could also change how users interact with traditional advertisements.</span></p> <p><span>For Alphabet, the test is therefore twofold: turn cloud growth into stronger profits while protecting the advertising business that helps finance its AI ambitions.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Amazon: where is the cash?</span></strong></p> <p><span>Amazon combines its global retail platform with Amazon Web Services (AWS), the cloud business that provides much of its operating profit.</span></p> <p><span>AWS revenue grew 37% in the June quarter, its fastest expansion in several years. Yet Amazon's free cash flow, the money remaining after operating expenses and investments, was negative 7.6 billion USD over the preceding 12 months.</span></p> <p><span>This does not necessarily signal a struggling business. Amazon generated substantial operating cash, but infrastructure investments absorbed even more.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the distinction matters. Growing revenue is encouraging. Growing profits are better. Eventually, those profits also need to translate into cash.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The trillion-dollar question is about returns, not revenue</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AI infrastructure is expensive to build, but potentially profitable to operate once customers start using it.</span></p> <p><span>The difficulty is timing. Companies spend billions on chips, buildings and electricity connections today, while the revenue they hope to generate may arrive over several years.</span></p> <p><span>This creates an important distinction between earnings and cash generation.</span></p> <p><span>A company can report excellent profits while spending more cash than it produces. Equally, negative free cash flow during an investment phase does not automatically indicate poor long-term returns.</span></p> <p><span>For shareholders, the key is whether future profits eventually justify today's spending.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank analysis.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p>Valuations add another layer. When share prices already reflect ambitious growth expectations, companies have less room for disappointment.</p> <p>That means even impressive quarterly results might trigger a negative market reaction if management raises spending forecasts without offering convincing evidence of future returns.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Risks: when growth becomes expensive</strong></h3> <p>Three risks deserve particular attention.</p> <p>First, AI demand could grow more slowly than the infrastructure built to serve it, leaving companies with underused capacity.</p> <p>Second, competition could push down prices for computing services, limiting profitability even as customer adoption increases.</p> <p>Third, rising electricity, financing and equipment costs could prolong the period before investments generate meaningful cash returns.</p> <p>The early warning signs include slowing cloud growth, declining margins and repeated increases in spending forecasts.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook: look beyond the earnings headline</strong></h3> <ul> <li> <strong>Compare growth with profitability.</strong> Faster cloud revenue growth is more valuable when operating margins remain healthy. </li> <li> <strong>Follow the cash.</strong> Track whether free cash flow improves as earlier investments begin generating revenue. </li> <li> <strong>Watch spending guidance.</strong> Rising investment is easier to justify when expected demand and returns rise alongside it. </li> <li> <strong>Check portfolio concentration.</strong> Several technology holdings may depend on the same AI investment cycle. </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The bill is arriving. Will the profits follow?</strong></h3> <p>For much of the AI boom, investors have focused on how quickly companies could build bigger, faster and more powerful computing systems. That remains important, but the next chapter looks increasingly financial.</p> <p>Microsoft must show that growing AI adoption supports its expanding infrastructure. Alphabet needs to translate exceptional cloud growth into sustainable profits while protecting Search. Amazon must demonstrate that substantial investments can eventually generate more cash.</p> <p>None of these questions will be settled by one earnings report. And spending heavily today is not necessarily a mistake if the eventual returns justify it.</p> <p>The AI opportunity is becoming easier to see. The cost of pursuing it is also becoming harder to ignore. Ultimately, shareholders do not earn returns from how much companies spend, but from what that spending produces.</p> </div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Amazon.com</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>Microsoft Corp.</span> <span>Microsoft</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>UBS reports on Wednesday: two ways to name your price while Bern decides</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 07:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">UBS reports third-quarter results on 28 October 2026 while Swiss lawmakers are still deciding how much capital the bank must hold. One investor wants to buy lower, another already owns the shares. How can each name a price and be paid to wait?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>Results day brings the numbers. This quarter, Swiss politics may matter just as much.</em></p> <p>UBS publishes its third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday 28 October 2026, with the documents out at 06:45 CET, before the Swiss and US markets open. Analysts expect earnings of about USD 0.91 a share (UBS reports in US dollars). The Swiss-listed shares (SIX) traded at about CHF 38.57 on 26 October 2026. (Sources: UBS, Reuters/LSEG, Saxo, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)</p> <p>The shares have been held back by a question that is not about this quarter. On 23 September 2026, the Swiss upper house voted to make UBS back the value of its foreign subsidiaries with much more of its highest-quality capital than today, and UBS has said the change would be too tight (Source: UBS statement, 23 September 2026). The lower house is next, and lawmakers are expected to take until next year to finish. For an investor who holds UBS, or is thinking about it, options can add structure to a view already held.</p> <p><em>UBS share price on the Swiss line with the two example strikes and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:48 CET.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>How big a move do the options point to?</strong></h2> <p>Option prices give a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. Add the price of the call and the put at the strike closest to the share price. For the 20 November expiry, that points to a move of about 6.2% in either direction. The figure covers every day until expiry, not only results day, so it is not a one-day estimate. The figures are in the box below.</p> <ul> <li><strong>38.50 strike:</strong> call 1.235 + put 1.17 = 2.405</li> <li><strong>39 strike:</strong> call 0.985 + put 1.41 = 2.395</li> <li><strong>Blend at the share price of CHF 38.57:</strong> about CHF 2.40, or 6.2%, which gives a rough range of CHF 36.17 to CHF 40.97</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET; author calculation. Mid prices, rounded)</li> </ul> <p>Recent results days show how different the outcomes can be. On 4 February 2026 the shares closed 6.3% lower. On 29 April 2026 they rose as much as 5.9% early in the session and finished the day 3.2% higher (Source: Saxo price data, SIX closing prices). Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why 20 November and not the week after the report</strong></h2> <p>UBS reports on Wednesday 28 October 2026, but the first listed expiry after that is Friday 20 November 2026. There is no weekly option on 30 October. So these examples carry more than the report: they also carry three weeks of news from Bern. The options are the Eurex contracts on the Swiss-listed shares, the line most Saxo clients hold. Each contract covers 100 shares and is priced in Swiss francs. Strikes are listed in steps of CHF 0.50, so the examples sit at the nearest listed strike beyond each edge of the range.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What happens to the premium after the report</strong></h2> <p>Part of every UBS option’s price right now is a payment for the uncertainty around the report. Once the numbers are out, that part usually shrinks, even if the share price barely moves. Traders call this IV crush: implied volatility, the market’s expected size of moves, falls. The seller of an option collects that extra payment up front and carries the risk of a big move. Time decay (theta, the small amount an option loses each day) also works for the seller. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses; options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The buyer-in-waiting: a cash-secured put at 36</strong></h2> <p>Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 shares at the strike if UBS is below it at expiry, in exchange for a premium collected today, with the cash set aside. The view behind it: UBS is worth owning, but the investor would rather pay less, and the capital debate could still push the shares down first.</p> <p><em>Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Sell</strong> 1 UBS 20 November 2026 36 put at a limit price of CHF 0.40 (inside the quoted bid and ask), with UBS at CHF 38.57</li> <li><strong>Cash set aside:</strong> CHF 3,600</li> <li><strong>Premium received:</strong> CHF 40 (0.40 x 100)</li> <li><strong>Purchase price if assigned:</strong> CHF 36 less the premium, CHF 35.60, which is 7.7% below the share price</li> <li><strong>Maximum risk:</strong> CHF 3,560 (CHF 3,600 less the premium, hypothetical), if UBS fell to zero; <strong>maximum profit:</strong> the CHF 40 premium (hypothetical)</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)</li> </ul> <p>The risk comes first: below the purchase price the loss grows franc for franc, as for any shareholder, and the premium is the whole upside however far UBS rallies. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p>Why 36: it is the listed strike just below the lower edge of the rough range, so a move of the expected size would not take UBS under it. A fall like February’s would bring the shares to about CHF 36.16, just above the strike, so the put would sit on the edge of assignment. A worse outcome in Bern could take them through. The premium is also small, and the gap between bid and ask is CHF 0.09, a large share of it.</p> <p><strong></strong><em><br /> The 36 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:50 CET.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The holder with a price in mind: a covered call at 41</strong></h2> <p>Selling a covered call means agreeing to sell 100 shares you own at the strike if UBS is above it at expiry, for a premium collected today. The view behind it: the holder would be content to sell part of the position about 7% higher, and expects any relief from Bern to arrive slowly.</p> <p><em>Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Own</strong> 100 UBS shares; <strong>sell</strong> 1 UBS 20 November 2026 41 call at a limit price of CHF 0.32 (inside the quoted bid and ask), with UBS at CHF 38.57</li> <li><strong>Premium received:</strong> CHF 32 (0.32 x 100), about 0.8% of the CHF 3,857 share value</li> <li><strong>Effective sale price if assigned:</strong> CHF 41 plus the premium, CHF 41.32</li> <li><strong>Maximum risk:</strong> CHF 3,825 (the share value less the premium, hypothetical), if UBS fell to zero; <strong>maximum profit:</strong> CHF 275 (CHF 243 of gain up to 41 plus the CHF 32 premium, hypothetical)</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:57 CET)</li> </ul> <p>The risk comes first: the investor keeps the full downside of owning the shares. The premium offsets only a small part of it, and it does not protect against a large decline. A fall like February’s would cost roughly CHF 240 on 100 shares, against a premium of CHF 32. Upside above the strike is given away until expiry. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p>Why 41: it is the listed strike just above the upper edge of the rough range. A rise like April’s early move would bring UBS to about CHF 40.85, short of the strike.</p> <p><em><br /> The 41 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, so it reports unlimited risk; held against 100 UBS shares, a rise above 41 is covered by the shares, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 26 October 2026, 12:52 CET.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>When to leave it alone</strong></h2> <p>Both examples assume the investor is happy to own UBS. Someone who expects the capital rules to stay tough for a long time may feel a small premium does not pay enough for buying into a falling share, and may prefer to wait.</p> <p>The opposite case matters too. If lawmakers settle on a gentler rule, the shares could jump, and the covered call would give part of that jump away. Doing nothing is a valid answer. Results day and the political calendar can both surprise.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Before placing the trade, check:</h4> <ul> <li>Bid and ask spreads, and whether the strike has open interest or recent trading; selling at the bid gives up part of the premium</li> <li>The expiry: confirm it is Friday 20 November 2026 and that the strike you want is listed, as not every strike or week is available</li> <li>The report timing: documents at 06:45 CET on 28 October 2026, so the first reaction comes before the US open</li> <li>Commission, charged per contract and larger in proportion on a small premium</li> <li>Whether the cash is genuinely set aside; "cash-secured" is a discipline the investor applies, and the platform’s margin requirement may be lower</li> <li>An exit plan, decided before the report</li> </ul> <p><strong>Assignment risk note:</strong> UBS options are American-style, so a short option can be assigned before expiry if it moves in the money. Settlement is by physical delivery of the shares. Only the seller of an option faces assignment risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where this leaves the two investors</strong></h2> <p>The two examples are one idea from either side of the holding: the put seller names a lower price to buy at, the call seller a higher price to sell at, and both are paid for the uncertainty. Either can be closed before expiry if the view changes.</p> <p>Neither removes the size of the move. In our view, selling an option into this report suits only an investor who would be comfortable owning, or still owning, UBS after a day like 4 February 2026. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. </em><em >The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/novartis-results-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-when-the-big-moves-come-from-elsewhere-23102026">Novartis results buying lower or selling higher when the big moves come from elsewhere</a> | 23 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/coreweave-after-the-bond-scare-what-a-cash-secured-put-pays-for-and-what-it-carries-21102026" data-id="27FF371E331741C6A31AAF8C62648DD7" data-type="Article">CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries</a> | 21 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/roche-sales-update-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-20102026" data-id="1A48DD78C67449998AD0D84A45EAF8E0" data-type="Article">Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 20 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sap-earnings-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-16102026" data-id="16162248F6D044E4BF8EE478A44D44A5" data-type="Article">SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 16 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/amd-after-a-ten-percent-day-taking-something-off-the-table-without-selling-the-shares-22092026" data-id="ACEB34AA10D24B4EA96F8709F6FE12A3" data-type="Article"></a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/finding-unusually-expensive-or-cheap-options-in-the-saxo-screener-18092026" data-id="B1C6A219A03F4ABCB94EDE297B17D955" data-type="Article">Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener</a> | 18 Sep 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026" data-id="6FF097126E5C41E3B0940DFBEBC1E335" data-type="Article">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article">Trading earnings with defined</a> | 31 Mar 2026<br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-end-reprices-long-end-holds---options-brief---15-october-2026-15102026" data-id="F990962B7E4B44088D5A8B26B88A711D" data-type="Article">Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sectors-pull-apart-the-index-holds---options-brief---14-october-2026-14102026" data-id="57517A525FBF4EE8B458781EBF88FD25" data-type="Article">Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Crypto and blockchain</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Anthropic files IPO paperwork - 27 October 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 07:32:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Five central banks meeting over coming days, led by FOMC Wednesday. </li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>:<strong> </strong>Global equities rebounded as renewed AI optimism lifted US and European stocks on Monday, with Asian markets following higher on Tuesday.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Near-dated equity volatility collapsed while the longer gauges eased into the central bank decision</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Tokens and the listed crypto complex slipped while federal stablecoin rules were finalised</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil eases on diplomatic hopes, gold remains cautious ahead of Fed, while Brazilian crops tumble</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US Treasury yields steady. France’s long-dated OAT’s rally.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD firms, Euro weakens slightly.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Five G10 central banks are set to meet over the next few days</strong>, with the <strong>RBNZ</strong> announcing its rate decision (market looking for a hike) in very early hours Wednesday. Also tomorrow, the <strong>Bank of Canada</strong> (market also looking for a hike) and <strong>FOMC </strong>(a pause widely expected) meet, while the <strong>ECB</strong> meets Thursday and the <strong>Bank of Japan</strong> Friday. For the last two central banks, the market is looking for a pause in the hiking cycle and guidance on what the December meetings will bring.</li> <li><strong>Renewed Middle East diplomacy is seeking to avert wider US‑Iran escalation</strong>, with Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials meeting Iranian leaders to revive talks and prevent further US‑Israeli strikes. The effort comes before US midterms, as <strong>Trump hints strikes could resume</strong>. Ongoing clashes involving Saudi-led forces, Iran-backed Houthis, and Hezbollah keep regional oil supplies at risk despite crude flows returning to near prewar levels.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.7% y/y in September</strong>, up from a revised 3.5% and the highest since June 2024, led by transport and postal, leasing and rental, and other services; advertising prices fell. Month-on-month, the index gained 0.3%, its third straight rise.</li> <li><strong>The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September</strong> from -0.08, as production and sales/orders/inventories improved, employment was neutral, and consumption and housing weakened. The three‑month average ticked up to +0.03.</li> <li><strong>UK shop price inflation</strong> rose to 2.1% y/y in October from 1.4%, the fastest since February 2024 and above the 1.6% forecast. Food inflation climbed to 2.9%, ambient food to 3.2%, fresh food stayed at 2.6%, and non‑food rose to 1.7%. The BRC flagged rising costs for retailers. Separately, UK CPI reached 3.5% in September, an 11‑month high.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for 4 weeks ending Oct 10</li> <li>1230 – US Preliminary Sep. Durable Goods Orders</li> <li>1300 – US Aug. Home Price Index</li> <li>1400 – US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index</li> <li>1400 – US Oct. Consumer Confidence</li> <li>1400 – US Sep. New Home Sales</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes</li> <li>0030 – Australia Sep. CPI</li> <li>0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate announcement</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA: </strong>The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.1% on Monday, snapping a two-session losing streak as Anthropic's IPO filing revived appetite for artificial intelligence stocks. Semiconductor shares led the recovery, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.8% and Nvidia rising 2.4% on renewed optimism about AI demand. Tesla jumped 5.2% after a Barclays upgrade highlighted potential benefits from a SpaceX merger, while Meta slipped 1.9% after unveiling plans to raise up to $95 billion to fund AI infrastructure. Investors now turn to the Federal Reserve's rate decision and earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% on Monday, while Germany's DAX rose 0.9% and the UK's FTSE 100 added 0.7%, as upbeat corporate updates and stronger German business confidence supported a broad recovery. Computacenter surged 13.1% after lifting its full-year profit forecast on strong technology demand, while Denmark's Genmab jumped 12.1% after encouraging mid-stage cancer-treatment trial results. Rolls-Royce climbed 6.1% as defence stocks rallied on expectations of additional UK military spending, while energy shares lagged as oil prices eased. Elsewhere, Frasers Group secured a controlling 50.1% stake in Hugo Boss, ahead of a busy week of central-bank decisions and corporate earnings.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities advanced on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.7% and South Korea's Kospi surging more than 3%, as renewed AI optimism lifted regional semiconductor stocks. SoftBank Group climbed around 5% on improving AI sentiment, while Tokyo Electron rose 3.1% as investors returned to chipmaking equipment suppliers. In South Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the rebound on expectations of stronger AI memory-chip demand, while speculation about additional shareholder returns offered further support to SK Hynix. Hong Kong shares traded lower, highlighting a mixed regional recovery, as investors awaited earnings from major Korean chipmakers and US technology companies.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 18.39 | VIX FUTURES: 19.120 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.97) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>The VIX fell 5.45% to 18.39 on Monday, back to the middle of last week's range, as traders pulled risk out of today and concentrated it on Wednesday's Fed decision. VIX1D lost more than a third of its value and VVIX fell 7.5%, so demand for short-dated protection has thinned. </li> <li>The curve stays in contango from VIX9D at 17.92 to VIX3M at 19.94. The midterm hump in November futures has largely flattened as the Fed, GDP, megacap earnings and the 3 November vote merge into one block of event risk. SKEW eased while dispersion rose, which points to single-stock earnings moves rather than an index-wide shock. MOVE slipped 1.1%, as rates vol confirmed the easing.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~79,638 -0.50% | ETHEREUM ~2,309 -0.52% | IBIT 45.22 -1.61% | ETHA 52.34 -3.22% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin trades just under $80,000 after an overnight low of $79,250, with Ether near $2,315 and XRP and Solana each 0.84% lower. Deribit's DVOL eased 0.65% to 38.31 despite weekend long liquidations of $400 million to $810 million depending on the provider. </li> <li>Crypto equities fell harder than the tokens: Circle dropped 7.07%, Bitmine 6.47%, Strategy 4.24% and Coinbase 2.95%, while IREN gained 2.11%. Strategy bought no bitcoin last week and directed $204.9 million to preferred buybacks. </li> <li>The OCC issued its final GENIUS Act rule for stablecoin issuers on 21 October, effective 18 January 2027, requiring full reserves at all times and keeping the ban on paying yield. Bitcoin support sits at $78,000.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent trades softer, currently below USD 115, amid hopes that diplomacy may avert a renewed escalation in the US-Iran war, following visits to Tehran by officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey for discussions. However, a more sustained decline in prices would likely require credible signals from all sides that tensions are easing, alongside tangible progress towards restoring the free movement of oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Upcoming elections in the US and Israel add another layer of uncertainty, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts and keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.</li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>trades nervously just above USD 4,000 as traders await Wednesday's FOMC meeting and interest rate decision. Meanwhile, continued weakness in silver is weighing on sentiment across precious metals and complicating recovery attempts. Silver has fallen to an 11-month low, while the gold-silver ratio is showing signs of an upside breakout, currently trading near 75.7, highlighting silver's relative underperformance. For now, gold's direction remains closely linked to broader risk sentiment, with particular focus on equity markets, bond yields and the dollar. A sustained recovery may require an improvement in these broader market conditions.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> Monday's near 9% slump in the Brazilian real following the surprise election result triggered selling across several of the country's major agricultural commodities traded in US dollar-denominated futures, including coffee, sugar, cotton and soybeans. A weaker real increases the local-currency value of dollar-denominated export revenues, potentially encouraging Brazilian producers to accelerate sales while improving the competitiveness of their products in global markets. This matters given Brazil's dominant position in agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, sugar, coffee and cotton. Sugar, where hedge funds had built their largest net long position in five years as recently as last week, tumbled 5.6%, highlighting the risk of long liquidation when positioning becomes crowded. Coffee fell 3.7%, while soybeans ended the session down 1.3%.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields were steady ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and after an auction of 2-year treasury notes that saw slightly soft demand</strong><strong>.</strong> The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose three basis points Monday to close near 4.72% before easing back to 4.70% in early trading Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield was steady Monday near 4.99% before falling slightly in early hours Tuesday to below 4.97%.</li> <li><strong>France’s long-dated OAT’s rallied strongly Monday</strong>, with the benchmark 10-year OAT yield falling nearly 12 basis points to 4.90%, while the 30-year yield fell 10 basis points to 5.28%. <strong>The </strong><strong>German</strong><strong>y-France sovereign yield spread </strong><strong>tightened </strong><strong>14 basis points to 153.5 basis points.</strong></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>firmed Monday, especially versus a softer euro</strong>, which failed to find support on the strong bid for French sovereign debt Monday. <strong>EURUSD</strong> traded back to 1.1165 by early Tuesday as the 1.1200 area finally lost its grip after the pair traded near that level for more than a week. The next level lower is the 17-month low from two weeks ago at 1.1113.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY rebounded Monday</strong>, trading back above 157.50 after its probe as low as 156.08 on Friday, but the JPY was steady in other crosses as yen traders await the FOMC tomorrow and the BoJ meeting Friday, where no hike is expected and the market is awaiting guidance on the decision for the December meeting, where expectations strongly favour a hike.</li> <li><strong>EURNOK continues to hit new </strong><strong>cycle lows</strong>, trading near 10.40 early Tuesday as European gas prices have risen to new highs since late 2022 this week.<strong> </strong> </li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 27 October, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 27 October, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>Trump hints strikes could resume. Japan services PPI rises 3.7% yoy. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >SOXX surges 2.8%. Tesla jumps 5.2% after upgrade by Barclays. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX:</strong><span > JPY weakest on Monday for G10. Brazilian real tumbles 8%. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Gold holds near $4,000; Brent crude pulls back from a six-month high </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >Treasury curve flattens notably; 10-year remains around 5% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva scored a surprise re-election win over Flávio Bolsonaro</span></strong><span>, sending Brazilian assets tumbling.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong ><span>Renewed Middle East diplomacy is seeking to avert wider US</span></strong><span >‑</span><strong ><span>Iran escalation</span></strong><span >, with Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials meeting Iranian leaders to revive talks and prevent further US</span><span >‑</span><span >Israeli strikes. The effort comes before US midterms, as <strong>Trump hints strikes could resume.</strong> Ongoing clashes involving Saudi-led forces, Iran-backed Houthis, and Hezbollah keep regional oil supplies at risk despite crude flows returning to near prewar levels.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.7% y/y in September, up from a revised 3.5% and the highest since June 2024</span></strong><span >, led by transport and postal, leasing and rental, and other services; advertising prices fell. Month-on-month, the index gained 0.3%, its third straight rise.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September from -0.08</strong><span >, as production and sales/orders/inventories improved, employment was neutral, and consumption and housing weakened. The three</span><span >‑</span><span >month average ticked up to +0.03.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >UK shop price inflation rose to 2.1% y/y in October from 1.4%</strong><span >, the fastest since February 2024 and above the 1.6% forecast. Food inflation climbed to 2.9%, ambient food to 3.2%, fresh food stayed at 2.6%, and non</span><span >‑</span><span >food rose to 1.7%. The BRC flagged rising costs for retailers. Separately, UK CPI reached 3.5% in September, an 11</span><span >‑</span><span >month high.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> On Monday 26 October, US equities snapped a two-day losing streak. S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 26,169.38, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 2.8%, its best day since 21 September, as Anthropic IPO filing slated for week of 16 Nov boosted sentiment.<strong> Tesla was the standout Mag 7 mover, jumping 5.2% after Barclays upgraded the stock citing SpaceX M&A potential.</strong> Nvidia rose 2.4%. <strong>Meta fell 1.9% after the company disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion via a stock offering</strong>. Lumentum Holdings surged 8.2%. US equity index futures are steady to slightly higher in early Asian trading Tuesday.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities advanced on Monday 26 October, snapping a two-day losing streak. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% to 640.66, the DAX gained 0.9% to 25,410.84, the CAC 40 added 0.8% to 7,847.32, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.8% to 6,116.23. Genmab surged 12% after a positive late-stage trial update for an experimental cancer treatment, hitting a 52-week high. Rolls-Royce rose 6.1%, leading the FTSE 100 higher by 0.7% to 10,767.33. Computacenter jumped 13.1%. On the downside, Telefonica fell 7–8% and Santander dropped 3–6% on Brazil election exposure. Frasers Group took control of Hugo Boss.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian equities are broadly higher on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street's gains and buoyed by the Anthropic IPO filing. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is up 0.6%. </span><strong >The Nikkei 225 is advancing 1.6% to approximately 63,215, led by SoftBank Group (+5.3%) on AI sentiment. </strong><span >The Kospi is the standout performer, surging approximately 4.2% to 5,699, boosted by Anthropic euphoria and reports of SK Hynix's shareholder return programme — though analysts note the index needs to clear the 6,000 level to confirm a sustained recovery. The STI closed down 0.1% to 5,415.91 on Monday, with Sembcorp Industries the worst performer (-2.8%) and Hongkong Land the top gainer (+2.2%). Hong Kong markets are opening with a positive bias. The S&P/ASX 200 is slightly lower, down 0.2%, as investors rotate out of defensives into growth and AI-linked names.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li>Tuesday: Coca-Cola, Boeing, PayPal, Visa, HSBC<span></span></li> <li>Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Ford, Ping An Insurance, PetroChina, Hitachi, SK Hynix<span ></span></li> <li>Thursday: Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Intel, Amazon, BYD, Denso, Keyence, Wilmar International<span ></span></li> <li>Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>USDJPY rose 0.4% to 157.53 </strong>and is little changed in early Asia Tuesday. The yen was the worst G10 performer on Monday. Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision, with Nomura expecting the pair to remain range-bound around 157. Japan's FX cyber attack adds a layer of headline risk.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >The Brazilian real tumbled more than 8% — its biggest single-day drop since the 1990s</strong><span > — following Lula's surprise re-election, dragging broader EM FX lower. The exchange operator B3 widened trading limits twice to accommodate the volatility.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD fell 0.3% to 0.7015</strong><span >, consolidating ahead of Wednesday's Australian CPI. Markets are pricing approximately a 60% chance of an RBA hike next week, which could provide support if CPI surprises to the upside.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >NZDUSD fell 0.3% to 0.5682. AUDNZD</strong><span > has scope to fall around Wednesday's RBNZ meeting, as leveraged funds remain net short NZD while AUD longs are stretched, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> settled near $116 in a volatile session, pulling back from a six-month high near $117 seen last week. Diplomatic efforts to ease US-Iran tensions provided some relief, though Saudi-Houthi tensions and Middle East supply risk continue to underpin prices. European benchmark gas rose 2.8% to €96.44/MWh, a four-year high, on winter supply fears.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold </strong><span >is holding near $4,000 an ounce, having added 0.5% on Monday. Traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. The 10-year real yield fell 1.6bps to 2.63%, providing a mild tailwind for bullion.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Copper futures</strong><span > edged up 0.3% to $14,339 per metric ton on Monday, supported by the broader AI infrastructure spending theme and resilient US manufacturing data.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong ><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong ><span> </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li>The <strong>Treasury curve</strong> flattened notably on Monday ahead of this week's coupon auctions and the October 28 Fed decision. The 10-year yield was little changed near 4.997%, while the 30-year fell 1.7bps to 5.309%. The 5s30s spread compressed to 47.7bps from 51.6bps. Options demand remains skewed toward hedging a further rally in longer-dated yields.<span></span></li> <li>The Treasury sold $69 billion in 2-year notes at 4.708%, tailing the 4.705% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand fell slightly short of expectations. Direct bidders were awarded a record share. The 2s10s curve remained approximately 4bps flatter following the results.<span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US investment-grade bond sales</strong><span > hit an annual record of $1.76 trillion, surpassing the prior record of $1.75 trillion set during the pandemic borrowing boom of 2020. AI infrastructure spending is a key driver, with QTS (Blackstone) seeking $800 million in private placement debt and SpaceX closing a $40 billion equipment financing deal.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. </em><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span ></span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Paying for the index, not the names - Options Brief - 26 October 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Implied correlation closed at its highest since June while dispersion sat on its median. The option market has decided this week moves as one block, and it has four sessions to be proved right.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Almost every gauge on the volatility board is high against its own three months, and the one sitting at a fresh high is the one that prices the index moving as a block.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 19.45 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.80) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.450</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p><strong>The short version.</strong> Implied correlation closed Friday at <strong>15.00</strong>, above every reading in our store back to mid-June, while dispersion sat at <strong>36.93</strong>, its median. Those two move against each other by construction, and this is what it looks like when the option market pays for the index rather than for the names inside it. The week ahead explains the bid: a Federal Reserve decision, third-quarter growth, the September inflation deflator and three of the index’s largest companies, all in four sessions.</p> <p><strong>Markets.</strong> The S&P 500 closed at <strong>7,623.68</strong>, down <strong>0.52%</strong>, and the Dow lost <strong>1.24%</strong> while the Nasdaq 100 finished unchanged at <strong>28,957.53</strong>. The equal-weighted index fell <strong>0.78%</strong>, so a narrow group held the cap-weighted version up. Energy rose <strong>2.60%</strong> and technology <strong>0.49%</strong>; communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and industrials all fell more than a per cent. Oil carried the session, Brent settling at <strong>116.72</strong> on Gulf supply risk before reversing to near <strong>114</strong> this morning. The ten-year Treasury yield closed at <strong>4.999%</strong> and has eased since.</p> <p><strong>Volatility curve.</strong> The cash curve held its contango, the one-day gauge gaining <strong>10.74%</strong> to <strong>16.81</strong> against a flat nine-day at <strong>18.70</strong> and a one-year at <strong>22.82</strong>. Oil volatility made the largest single move, up <strong>7.87%</strong> to <strong>60.02</strong>. The bond gauge fell <strong>3.30%</strong> to <strong>103.32</strong> and vol-of-vol rose to <strong>109.70</strong>, within a quarter of a point of its highest reading in the store.</p> <p><strong>Single names.</strong> Almost nothing happened. On an identical <strong>524</strong> underlyings the median implied-volatility rank moved to <strong>47.7</strong> from <strong>47.1</strong>. What movement there was sat in names with events attached, not in the population.</p> <p><strong>Flow.</strong> Friday’s ten reports gave no readable direction. The one line with a clear side was index put protection bought ahead of this week.</p> <p><strong>This week’s range.</strong> The option market prices <strong>137.05</strong> points, <strong>1.80%</strong>, for the S&P 500 into Friday’s expiry, about <strong>15%</strong> wider than the band priced a week ago. The week has not opened, so none of it has been used.</p> <p><strong>Earnings and catalysts.</strong> The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from <strong>1.5x</strong> at Novartis to <strong>0.4x</strong> at Apple. Today brings the German IFO survey and two second-tier US activity readings. The Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada all decide on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.</p> <p><strong>What it adds up to.</strong> Today’s expiry prices <strong>0.78%</strong> and Friday’s <strong>1.78%</strong>. Friday’s is the one that matters: the first contract in three weeks whose window contains a Federal Reserve decision. In our view the correlation reading may say more about how the market expects that week to be paid for than the level of the VIX does.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Oil set the tone and the Federal Reserve set the clock. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure continued through the weekend and Riyadh’s main airport reopened after a two-week shutdown, while the US administration signalled it was close to deciding whether to strike Iran or pursue a deal. Brent settled at <strong>116.72</strong> on Friday, its highest in six months, and the oil volatility gauge rose <strong>7.87%</strong> to <strong>60.02</strong>.</p> <p>Equities took the inflation implication rather than the geopolitics. The S&P 500 fell <strong>0.52%</strong> and the Dow <strong>1.24%</strong>, with ExxonMobil up <strong>2.8%</strong> against American Express down <strong>3.7%</strong>. The semiconductor index recovered <strong>0.4%</strong> after Thursday’s selloff.</p> <p>By Monday morning the oil move had partly reversed, Brent trading near <strong>114</strong> on hopes of de-escalation. What has not reversed is the calendar: five central banks and three of the index’s largest constituents report inside the next four sessions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Friday 23 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,623.68</strong>, down <strong>0.52%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>28,957.53</strong>, unchanged. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,220.21</strong>, down <strong>1.24%</strong>. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell <strong>0.78%</strong>. Energy rose <strong>2.60%</strong>, software <strong>1.72%</strong> and semiconductors <strong>0.74%</strong>, while communication services fell <strong>1.78%</strong>, consumer discretionary <strong>1.66%</strong> and financials <strong>1.32%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 eased <strong>0.31%</strong> to <strong>635.78</strong>, the DAX <strong>0.75%</strong> to <strong>25,181.65</strong> and the CAC 40 <strong>0.36%</strong>. Kering fell <strong>16.6%</strong> on weak Gucci sales, Volvo Cars <strong>24.2%</strong> and Safran <strong>10%</strong>, while L’Oreal rose <strong>5.6%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Monday morning):</strong> the Nikkei 225 closed <strong>0.8%</strong> lower and the Kospi fell <strong>0.87%</strong> to <strong>5,502.17</strong>, while the Hang Seng held near flat at <strong>23,193.94</strong> and the CSI 300 eased <strong>0.54%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent settled at <strong>116.72</strong> and WTI near <strong>103</strong>, both reversing lower this morning. Gold holds above <strong>4,000</strong> after a weekly fall of more than <strong>4%</strong>, its largest since June, with the gold fund down <strong>0.65%</strong> on Friday. The ten-year Treasury yield closed at <strong>4.999%</strong>, the two-year at <strong>4.69%</strong> and the thirty-year at <strong>5.296%</strong>, each easing this morning. Bitcoin traded near <strong>79,400</strong> and the largest bitcoin fund closed at <strong>45.96</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> neutral and choppy, the VIX at <strong>19.45</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>151.80</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>All figures from the watchlist export taken at 05:00 CET on 26 October 2026, which carries Friday’s US closes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The board is high nearly everywhere. Against the 102 sessions we hold back to 15 June, the VIX at <strong>19.45</strong> sits in the top fifth of its range, the Nasdaq gauge at <strong>28.30</strong> and the bond gauge at <strong>103.32</strong> in the top quarter, and vol-of-vol at <strong>109.70</strong> within a quarter-point of its highest reading in the store. The day’s move was narrower: oil volatility rose <strong>7.87%</strong> to <strong>60.02</strong> while equity gauges barely shifted.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.86</strong>, so a single session is priced close to a month. VIX3M/VIX holds at <strong>1.05</strong>, the curve upward sloping. VXN/VIX eased to <strong>1.46</strong> from <strong>1.51</strong>.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> The front contract is November. It closed Friday at <strong>19.615</strong>, a premium of <strong>0.165</strong> to spot, with December beneath it at <strong>19.495</strong>, so the first two futures sit in slight backwardation while the cash curve does not. Put-call parity on the 18 November options returned a forward of <strong>19.53</strong> this morning, consistent across the five strikes nearest the money, so the series has not rolled and the comparison holds.</p> <p><strong>Correlation and tails.</strong> Implied correlation rose <strong>3.02%</strong> to <strong>15.00</strong>, above the <strong>14.56</strong> high set the session before and well clear of the <strong>10.22</strong> median. Dispersion fell <strong>2.30%</strong> to <strong>36.93</strong>, its median. SKEW eased to <strong>151.80</strong> and gold volatility rose <strong>0.79%</strong> to <strong>24.34</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>The index measures above moved while the names inside them did not. On an identical universe of <strong>524</strong> underlyings, so no part of this is a composition effect, the median implied-volatility rank rose to <strong>47.7</strong> from <strong>47.1</strong>. The share of names above rank <strong>50</strong> eased to <strong>45.0%</strong> from <strong>45.8%</strong> and the share below rank <strong>20</strong> rose to <strong>9.5%</strong> from <strong>8.8%</strong>. The typical name therefore sits just below the midpoint of its own year, and spent Friday staying there.</p> <p>Where rank did move, an event explains it in both directions. Kering lost <strong>33.6</strong> points of rank after reporting, the ordinary collapse of event premium once the event has passed, on the same session its shares fell <strong>16.6%</strong>. Linde gained <strong>18.5</strong> points into a report due Thursday. That pairing is the week in miniature: rank drains out of the names that have reported and builds in the ones that have not.</p> <p>A note on what rank measures. A high rank says a name’s implied volatility sits far from the extremes of its own year. It does not say how many days in that year looked like today, which is what a percentile answers, and the two can disagree sharply for a name whose volatility has spent most of the year in a narrow band.</p> <p><em>Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 23 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the large lines were rolls, paired packages and mid-market prints with no aggressor side, and the premium split is a structural artefact rather than a view.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> was unreadable on the same test, with one exception worth naming: index put protection was bought outright ahead of this week’s decisions and results, which is the only large line in the set with a confirmed side.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 23 October’s close. The week has not opened, so no marker has moved. Straddles are at-the-money, from the Saxo chain, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The S&P 500 begins with <strong>137.05</strong> points priced around Friday’s close, <strong>1.80%</strong>, from <strong>7,486.63</strong> to <strong>7,760.73</strong>, nearest strikes <strong>7485</strong> and <strong>7760</strong>. That is about <strong>15%</strong> wider than a week ago’s <strong>119.13</strong>.</p> <p>The width has an obvious cause: this is the first weekly band in three weeks whose expiry sits after a Federal Reserve decision rather than before one. Last week’s stopped five days short of it. Friday’s pays for the decision, Thursday’s releases and three large results.</p> <p>The Nasdaq 100 fund is priced for <strong>3.06%</strong>, energy <strong>3.43%</strong>, gold <strong>2.40%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>3.61%</strong>. The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month, not a week.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>10:00 CET</strong> German October IFO business climate survey.</li> <li><strong>13:30 CET</strong> US September Chicago Fed national activity index, before the cash open.</li> <li><strong>15:30 CET</strong> US October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, then a two-year Treasury note auction at <strong>18:00</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems and Nucor.</li> </ul> <p>One clock note for this week. The US has not yet left summer time while Europe did on Sunday, so the gap is five hours rather than six: the US cash session runs <strong>14:30</strong> to <strong>21:00 CET</strong> until 1 November. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> therefore lands two hours before the close, inside the session, with the press conference at <strong>19:30</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, across the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether a move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from <strong>1.5x</strong> to <strong>0.4x</strong>. Novartis is richest at <strong>3.2%</strong> into Tuesday against an eight-report average of <strong>2.1%</strong>; Apple cheapest at <strong>1.0%</strong> against <strong>2.5%</strong>. Alphabet sits at <strong>5.2%</strong> against <strong>4.1%</strong>, Amazon at <strong>7.1%</strong> against <strong>6.2%</strong>, and Microsoft at <strong>4.6%</strong> against a <strong>7.0%</strong> history, the only one of those below what it has typically done.</p> <p>Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and this board separates them. Amazon carries a rank of <strong>71</strong> and prices <strong>7.1%</strong>; Apple sits at <strong>61</strong> and prices <strong>1.0%</strong>. Nearly the same position in the year, seven times the move for one day. Rank describes a year; the event premium an afternoon.</p> <p>Meta is the completed example: priced at <strong>6.7%</strong>, it moved <strong>7.0%</strong>. Next are Novartis on Tuesday, UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, Amazon Thursday.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> SPX options price <strong>59</strong> points, <strong>0.78%</strong>, for today’s expiry, derived from the at-the-money straddle on the Saxo chain and centred on put-call parity. No recent edition quoted this contract, so there is no like-for-like comparison to draw.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> the 30 October expiry prices <strong>136</strong> points, <strong>1.78%</strong>, covering Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, Thursday’s growth and inflation releases and three large results. Read from the same chain and method at Friday’s close, the same contract was <strong>137.05</strong>. Five sessions remained then and five remain now, so decay accounts for none of the difference and a little volatility has come out of the week.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation at <strong>15.00</strong> is above every reading in our store back to 15 June, while dispersion at <strong>36.93</strong> sits on its median. In our view the market may be paying for the index to move as one rather than for the names to separate, which is the shape a macro week tends to take.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal:</strong> SKEW at <strong>151.80</strong> sits above its <strong>144.69</strong> median with the VIX in the top fifth of its own range. Both can be read as the cost of carrying the week rather than a view on its direction.</li> </ul> <p>In our view the useful contrast this morning may be between a volatility board that is broadly elevated and a single-name surface that is not. The index is where the week is being priced, and the names inside it have largely been left alone. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/three-per-cent-of-the-range-one-session-left---options-brief---23-october-2026-23102026" data-id="99571F8BFD524349BBE8DA0C12EDB665" data-type="Article">Three per cent of the range one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/the-markdown-was-all-in-the-wings---options-brief---22-october-2026-22102026" data-id="C74E31EC7CFA46C3973A0A010260BE16" data-type="Article">The markdown was all in the wings - Options Brief - 22 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---big-week-ahead-as-fomc-ecb-and-boj-all-to-meet---26-october-2026-26102026" data-id="087A6DD1A6FF4C918B5A29CD5791B86E" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chipmakers-tumble-and-the-ten-year-drops-below-5---23-october-2026-23102026" data-id="BC5472C7FC99409285B65F68DAC1A25D" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chipmakers tumble and the ten-year drops below 5 - 23 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>European banks face a double test: earnings season meets the Fed and ECB</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Higher rates are a double-edged sword: </strong>they support lending income but can hurt bond portfolios and borrowers.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Strong profits are only half the story:</strong> earnings will test lending margins, credit quality and the outlook for 2027.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Cheap does not always mean attractive: </strong>sustainable profitability, strong balance sheets and sensible valuations matter more than ever.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>European banks have enjoyed a remarkable comeback, helped by higher interest rates, stronger profits and generous shareholder payouts. But the relationship between banks and interest rates is becoming more complicated.</span></p> <p><span>This week offers an important test.</span></p> <p><span>The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, 29 October. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, while some of Europe's largest banks publish their third-quarter earnings.</span></p> <p><span>The timing matters. European banking shares have recently come under pressure, particularly in France, as rising government borrowing costs revive concerns about financial stability.</span></p> <p><span>The paradox is simple: the same higher interest rates that helped banks earn more money could now become one of their biggest risks.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>When higher rates stop being your best friend</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Banks have a relatively straightforward business model. They collect deposits, lend money and generally earn more on loans than they pay depositors.</span></p> <p><span>When central banks raise rates, banks can often charge borrowers more without immediately increasing the interest paid on deposits. This difference, known as the net interest margin, can improve profitability.</span></p> <p><span>That has been an important driver of Europe's banking recovery.</span></p> <p><span>In September, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, while the Fed lifted its benchmark range to 3.75% to 4.00%.</span></p> <p><span>But higher rates are not always good news.</span></p> <p><span>First, depositors eventually demand better returns, increasing banks' funding costs. Second, expensive mortgages and business loans can discourage borrowing or make existing debts harder to repay.</span></p> <p><span>There is also a third problem: government bonds.</span></p> <p><span>When bond yields rise, existing bonds generally lose market value. Banks holding large government bond portfolios may face losses, pressure on their financial strength or higher funding costs. Some accounting rules allow them to avoid recognising temporary market losses immediately, but that does not eliminate the underlying risk.</span></p> <p><span>This distinction matters. The ECB directly influences euro-area lending conditions, while the Fed affects international funding costs and global financial markets.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the question is no longer simply whether interest rates rise or fall, but whether a bank can remain profitable across different interest-rate environments.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank analysis.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Earnings season: look beyond the headline profits</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The coming days offer a useful comparison between different banking models.</span></p> <p><span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">HSBC reports on 27 October, followed by BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Banco Santander and UBS on 28 October. ING, Société Générale, BBVA and Danske Bank follow on 29 October, with Crédit Agricole and NatWest scheduled for 30 October. Italian lenders Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit report on 3 and 9 November, respectively.</p> </span></p> <p><span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Each provides a different perspective. HSBC offers insight into Asian markets and wealth management. Deutsche Bank reflects investment banking conditions, while Santander and BBVA operate across several economies.</p> <p>But perhaps the most interesting case comes from Switzerland.</p> <p>Following Credit Suisse's collapse in 2023 and its takeover by UBS, the Swiss government wants stricter capital requirements to prevent another banking crisis. The objective is straightforward: make banks hold larger financial cushions to absorb potential losses.</p> <p>UBS, however, argues that the proposed rules would make it less competitive internationally. Its chairman has warned that excessively strict requirements could force the bank to reconsider its future in Switzerland.</p> <p>The dispute now extends beyond shareholders. On 25 October, <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/employees-group-warns-major-swiss-job-losses-if-ubs-relocates-newspaper-says-2026-10-25/" target="_blank">the Swiss Bank Employees Association warned that up to 12,000 of UBS's roughly 34,000 Swiss jobs could be at risk </a>in a worst-case scenario involving relocation, a sale or a merger. These are potential losses, not announced redundancies.</p> <p>UBS's Wednesday earnings therefore offer another important question: how much can tougher regulation affect a bank's future profitability and shareholder returns?</p> <p>This is relevant well beyond Switzerland. Stronger capital buffers make banks safer, but holding more capital can also reduce the returns they generate for shareholders.</p> <p>Ultimately, investors need to look beyond whether earnings beat expectations. Are lending margins holding up? Are more customers struggling to repay debts? Can banks continue paying dividends without weakening their financial strength?</p> <p>A bank reporting record profits while its borrowers become less reliable may be less attractive than one delivering modest but sustainable growth.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Cheap banks or expensive problems?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Valuations make the story particularly interesting.</span></p> <p><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://stoxx.com/index/sx7p/?factsheet=true&utm" target="_blank">The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index trades at approximately 11.4 times expected earnings and 1.5 times book value</a>, compared with 14.6 times expected earnings for the broader European market.</span></p> <p><span>Book value represents a bank's assets minus its liabilities. Paying 1.5 times book value means paying EUR 1.50 for every EUR 1 of accounting equity.</span></p> <p><span>French lenders appear particularly inexpensive. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/french-bank-valuations-signal-upside-after-sovereign-risk-selloff-106758768?" target="_blank">According to S&P Global Market Intelligence</a>, BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole traded below eight times estimated earnings at the beginning of October, versus a median of 10.3 times for 20 major European banks.</span></p> <p><span>Yet the discount reflects genuine concerns about French public finances, political uncertainty and government borrowing costs.</span></p> <p><span>Banks today generally have stronger capital buffers and better supervision than during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. Nevertheless, their exposure to government debt remains important.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, valuation only becomes meaningful when compared with sustainable profitability. A bank consistently earning attractive returns on shareholders' capital may deserve a higher valuation. Another generating unusually strong profits during favourable conditions might look cheap just before earnings weaken.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: what could go wrong?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Three risks deserve attention.</span></p> <p><span>A prolonged rise in government bond yields could put additional pressure on bank balance sheets, especially in countries facing fiscal uncertainty. Rising deposit costs could squeeze lending margins, while weaker economic growth could increase loan defaults.</span></p> <p><span>The early warning signs include widening gaps between government bond yields, declining net interest margins and rising credit losses.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Investor playbook: a simple banking health check</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Track lending profitability:</strong> compare net interest income with deposit costs, rather than focusing exclusively on headline earnings.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch credit quality:</strong> rising loan defaults alongside weakening economic growth can signal future pressure on profits.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare price with profitability:</strong> assess valuations alongside sustainable return on equity, not just current earnings.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Examine shareholder payouts:</strong> dividends and buybacks matter most when supported by healthy capital buffers and resilient profits.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The most valuable asset is resilience</span></strong></h3> <p><span>European banks do not necessarily need interest rates to rise further to remain attractive investments. Nor would falling rates automatically make them worse businesses.</span></p> <p><span>What matters is their ability to generate sustainable returns while managing the risks that come with lending money, holding bonds and financing economic activity.</span></p> <p><span>This earnings season offers an opportunity to distinguish banks benefiting from favourable conditions from those with genuinely durable earning power.</span></p> <p><span>The recent sell-off may have created more interesting valuations, but lower prices alone do not guarantee better long-term returns.</span></p> <p><span>Ultimately, the best banking businesses are not necessarily those making the most money when conditions are favourable. They are those that continue making money when conditions change.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Banks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Crowded dollar longs contrast with six weeks of commodity selling</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 20 October 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span><strong>The Commitment of Traders update <span></span></strong>highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 20 October 2026.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Forex: </strong>Speculative dollar longs versus eight IMM futures remain historically elevated, but the lack of a sustained rally raises the risk of a positioning-driven reversal. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Commodities</strong>: Six consecutive weeks of net selling have accompanied an 8% decline in the BCOM Index, with liquidation concentrated in natural gas, metals and grains. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Energy and metals</strong>: The Henry Hub natural gas net short reached a 2½-year high, while silver's net long slumped to a 32-month low <strong></strong></span></li> <li><span><strong>Grains and softs: </strong>The combined grains net long has fallen 42% in four weeks, while sugar bucks the broader selling trend, with speculative longs reaching a fresh five-year high.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Forex</strong></h3> <p> </p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="498"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>In the latest reporting week to 20 October, a 0.4% decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) helped trigger modest broad-based net dollar selling, particularly against GBP, JPY and CAD. The exceptions were AUD and NZD, which continued to attract selling.</span></p> <p><span>Overall, the speculative gross dollar long was reduced by 11% to USD 40 billion but remains historically elevated. Despite this heavy positioning, the dollar has struggled to rally, raising questions about the strength of the underlying bullish conviction. Crowded positioning increases the risk of a sharp reversal should the macroeconomic outlook shift, potentially triggering an accelerated unwind of long dollar positions.</span></p> <p><span>Admittedly, the headline may be somewhat misleading, as the COT report captures only a fraction of the overall foreign exchange market, focusing on futures positioning rather than the much larger spot and OTC markets. Nevertheless, it remains a useful indicator of speculative sentiment and broader market behaviour towards the dollar, particularly when positioning becomes as one-sided as it is today.</span></p> <p><span>Key markets to watch: Crude oil, Treasury yields and AI-related equities. Together, they may determine whether the dollar finds additional support from renewed inflation and risk aversion, or whether falling yields and an unwinding of crowded trades trigger a broader correction.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 data-section-id="whjwy9" data-start="0" data-end="76">Commodities</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="783"><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="283"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The latest COT report on commodities, covering the week to 20 October, showed net selling extending into a sixth consecutive week, during which the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) has fallen by 8%. The continued reduction in speculative exposure highlights a broader shift in sentiment, with funds cutting positions across several key sectors amid increased market volatility and weakening technical signals. <span >Once again, the bulk of the selling was concentrated in natural gas and metals, led by gold and, not least, copper, as well as grains.</span><span ></span></span></p> <p><span>In energy, natural gas remained under heavy selling pressure, with the combined speculative net short across the two major Henry Hub deliverable futures contracts reaching 124,000 contracts, the largest bearish position in two and a half years. The buildup in short positions followed another sharp decline in prices, with the benchmark futures contract tumbling almost 10% during the reporting week. Further weakness in subsequent sessions drove prices towards USD 2.50 per MMBtu, reinforcing the bearish momentum that has encouraged additional selling but also left the contract increasingly exposed to the risk of a weather related reversal.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>Across crude oil and refined products, speculative demand was muted during a week of mixed price performance, with crude rallying while fuel products eased. Despite ongoing geopolitical supply concerns, the lack of a stronger buying response suggests traders remain cautious about adding exposure at current price levels.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>In metals, broad-based selling continued, led by gold and copper, while the silver net long slumped to just 3,746 contracts, a 32-month low, highlighting the metal's continued lack of directional independence from a weakening gold price. Despite silver's underlying industrial demand story, short-term price action remains heavily influenced by developments in gold, with speculative investors showing little appetite to defend long positions during the latest correction.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>In grains, long liquidation continued with the combined speculative net long tumbling by 42% over the past four weeks after reaching an unsustainable record above one million contracts last month. The scale of the reduction highlights how quickly positioning can unwind once the fundamental and technical outlook turns less supportive.</span></p> <p><span >In soft commodities, all four tracked contracts attracted net buying, led by coffee and sugar. The latter's speculative net long reached a fresh five-year high, standing in sharp contrast to the widespread liquidation seen elsewhere across the commodity complex.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>Overall, the latest positioning data point to a market where speculative investors remain focused on reducing risk rather than rebuilding exposure. While the scale of recent liquidation may eventually create opportunities for a rebound, particularly in markets where positioning has become increasingly one-sided, a sustained recovery will likely require an improvement in price momentum and greater confidence in the underlying fundamental outlook.</span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money short, long and net positions in energy - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money short, long and net positions across key metals - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions across grains - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)</a> and the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ice.com/report/122" target="_blank">ICE Exchange Europe</a> for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span><strong>Commodities:</strong> Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, <strong>Managed Money</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Financials:</strong> Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, <strong>Leveraged Funds</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Forex:</strong> A broader breakdown between commercial and <strong>non-commercial</strong> participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators</span></p> <p> <p>The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>They are more likely to have <strong>tight stops</strong> and <strong>no underlying physical exposure</strong> that needs to be hedged</li> <li>This makes them <strong>more reactive to changes</strong> in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>Their positioning provides insight into <strong>major trends</strong>, while extreme positions can also help identify when a <strong>reversal or correction</strong> may be looming</li> </ul> <p>It is worth noting that this group tends to <strong>anticipate, accelerate and amplify</strong> price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a <strong>trough</strong> in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>23 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-crowded-trades-unwind-as-energy-risks-intensify-23102026" data-id="A3933F9706EC4376930E2206D26F94DF" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly Crowded trades unwind as energy risks intensify</a><br /> 22 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-caught-between-ai-jitters-and-escalating-energy-risks-22102026" data-id="EDA07D3D4C1A407BBA0AC51BF5DF7844" data-type="Article">Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks</a><br /> 19 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-13-october-2026-19102026" data-id="C8D7FD8CD8AB4D1382D350D9B8E55D37" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026</a><br /> 16 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-gold-steadies-as-oil-tightness-and-growth-fears-divide-markets-16102026" data-id="7F6FE49A8C92482F93700E2D53DBD7CC" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets</a><br /> 15 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-when-falling-yields-stop-helping-stocks-15102026" data-id="AE423B21F92F4D13BC37638594FC5815" data-type="Article">Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Big week ahead as FOMC, ECB and BoJ all to meet - 26 October 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Consumer sentiment stayed near a five-month low as Gulf supply risk kept building</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong><strong>:</strong><strong> </strong>US and European equities declined amid rising oil prices and earnings concerns, Asian markets opened lower ahead of key central bank decisions.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Crude volatility pushed to an extreme while equity gauges held a range-bound footing</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Tokens slipped further over the weekend while the exchange-traded funds extended their outflows</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil retreats on Iran de-escalation hopes as gold steadies after sharp weekly loss</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global bond yields eased lower early Monday after bouncing Friday as risk sentiment stabilised.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Currencies are rangebound ahead of an important week for central bank meets, as the FOMC, ECB and BoJ all meet this week.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up to 48.0 in late October but remained a five-month low</strong>. Year-ahead business conditions improved but stayed well below last year, while current conditions fell on an 18% drop in buying conditions for durables. Sentiment is 10% below a year ago and 15% below February. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-run expectations to 3.5%.</li> <li><strong>Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia persisted over the weekend as Riyadh’s main airport reopened after a two-week shutdown</strong>. Trump said he is close to deciding whether to strike Iran again or pursue a deal, keeping oil markets on edge.</li> <li><strong>President Lula reportedly secured a narrow victory over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential runoff</strong>, winning around 51% of the vote and halting the region’s rightward political shift. The Brazilian real fell sharply in futures trading as investors, who had anticipated a Bolsonaro victory and a more fiscally disciplined government, reassessed the outlook. Lula now faces significant challenges, including widening fiscal deficits, rising debt, deep political polarisation and restoring investor confidence in Brazil’s public finances.</li> <li><strong>Moody’s left France’s Aa3 rating unchanged on Friday, with a negative outlook. The OAT-Bund spread surged 29 bps last week</strong>—its second-largest weekly rise on record—to about 170 bps, the widest since the 2011 eurozone debt crisis.</li> <li><strong>US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4</strong>, still indicating strong expansion. New orders hit a 4.5-year high, exports and employment strengthened, but rising input costs pushed selling-price inflation to its highest since August 2022, while confidence edged down.</li> <li><strong>Canadian retail sales are seen up 0.7% m/m in September after a revised 1.2% gain in August.</strong> August growth was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.2%), gasoline stations (+1.7% in value, –0.5% in volume), and higher sales at food and beverage (+1.1%), general merchandise (+1%), and health and personal care stores (+1.6%).</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0900 – Germany Oct. IFO Business Climate Survey</li> <li>1230 – US Sep. Chicago Fed National Activity Index</li> <li>1430 – US Oct. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Monday</strong>: Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Friday, the Dow lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 was broadly unchanged at 28,957.53, as rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The semiconductor index recovered 0.4% after Thursday’s sharp selloff, but broader sentiment remained cautious. Bloom Energy sank 11.3% despite strong revenue growth as investors focused on negative cash flow, while American Express fell 3.7% after narrowly missing revenue expectations and announcing job cuts. Exxon Mobil gained 2.8% alongside higher oil prices, with attention now turning to major technology earnings and the Fed.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities extended losses on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3%, Germany’s DAX falling 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 losing 0.4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 declining 0.3%, as rising oil prices and disappointing earnings weighed on sentiment. Kering slumped 16.6% after weak Gucci sales raised fresh concerns about luxury demand, while Volvo Cars plunged 24.2% following a quarterly operating loss and further job cuts. Safran dropped 10% as investors questioned slowing growth in its engine spare-parts business, whereas L’Oréal rose 5.6% on stronger-than-expected sales. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank and further earnings releases.</li> <li><strong>Asia: </strong>Asian equities declined on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing 0.8% lower and South Korea’s Kospi falling more than 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded near flat, as concerns over oil prices and AI spending weighed on sentiment. Fanuc gained 1.2% after raising its annual profit forecast and announcing a share buyback. SK Hynix held up better than the broader Korean market amid reports of a possible $12 billion special dividend, with details expected alongside Wednesday’s earnings. Chinese equities remained fragile despite reported buying by state-backed funds last week, as investors awaited major technology earnings and central bank decisions.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 19.45 | VIX FUTURES: 19.450 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.80) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>With a decision on Iran pending, <strong>VIX closed Friday at 19.45</strong>, up 2.21%, and <strong>VIX1D jumped 10.74% to 16.81</strong>. Crude carried the standout move, <strong>OVX rising 7.87% to 60.02</strong> with its ratio to VIX at 3.09, while <strong>VXN eased 1.46% to 28.30</strong> and <strong>MOVE fell 3.30% to 103.32</strong>.</li> <li>The cash curve held its <strong>contango</strong>, VIX9D at 18.70 against VIX3M 20.48 and VIX1Y 22.82, with <strong>VVIX up 1.63% to 109.70</strong> and SKEW easing to 151.80. <strong>SPXW implies 59 points, or 0.78%, for today's expiry and 136 points, or 1.78%, into Friday 30 October</strong>, with Wednesday's Fed decision the main scheduled catalyst.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~79,350 -0.87% | ETHEREUM ~2,294 -1.42% | IBIT 45.96 -0.22% | ETHA 54.08 +0.37% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Tokens drifted lower through the weekend, bitcoin touching a session low near 79,330 before steadying, with <strong>XRP down 1.67%</strong> and <strong>SOL down 1.37%</strong>. Friday's listed complex was softer, <strong>Coinbase falling 2.74%</strong> and the miners led lower by <strong>Cipher at 4.57%</strong>, while Strategy added 0.14%. <strong>DVOL eased 0.93% to 38.44</strong>.</li> <li>US spot bitcoin funds recorded <strong>net outflows of about USD 773m across 22 and 23 October</strong>, ending a three-day run of inflows, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for USD 472m of the larger day. An estimated <strong>USD 11bn of bitcoin options expires on 30 October</strong>.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent reversed lower in Asian trading to trade near USD 114 after surging above USD 117 on Friday amid concerns that Trump could resume strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections on 3 November. Since then, Trump has signalled that he is nearing a decision on Iran, raising hopes of de-escalation. Meanwhile, fighting between Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend. Refined products also trade softer, although diesel and distillate contracts in New York and London remain near USD 200 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warns that supply tightness could extend well into 2027, reflecting constrained exports and an inevitable maintenance season that has so far been deferred.</li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> holds above USD 4,000 after briefly breaking below that level on Friday, ending the week down more than 4%, its largest weekly decline since June, with rising real yields cited as a key drag. Gold ETFs, a recent source of support, saw holdings decline by 12.8 tonnes towards the end of the week. For now, gold's performance remains closely linked to broader risk sentiment, with last week's AI-led equity correction and oil price surge adding to market pressures. The partial reversal of both moves has given markets, including gold, some breathing space, further supported by a softer dollar and easing bond yields.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global bond yields rebounded Friday after Thursday’s </strong><strong>significant slide as risk sentiment </strong><strong>steadiead</strong><strong> and oil prices surged</strong><strong>.</strong> The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield ended Friday up four basis points at 4.68% before easing slightly lower in early trading Monday as oil prices also dipped in Asian trading hours. dropped nearly 20 basis points at one point to 4.61% before rebounding to the 4.65% area by early Friday, while the benchmark 10-year yield trades early Friday some 16 basis points below its Wednesday close at 4.96%, the first daily close below 5.0% in a month.</li> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>German</strong><strong>y-France sovereign yield spread </strong><strong>tightened Frida</strong><strong>y</strong>, with the 10-year spread ending the day some seven basis points lower at 167 basis points after its widest daily close for the cycle since 2011 on Thursday.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>remains rangebound</strong><strong>, chopping indecisively back and forth ahead of an important week for central bank meetings</strong>, as the <strong>RBNZ</strong>, <strong>Bank of Canada</strong> and <strong>the Fed</strong> are all set to meet this Wednesday, <strong>the ECB</strong> will meet on Thursday and <strong>the Bank of Japan</strong> will meet Friday. The RBNZ and Bank of Canada are expected to hike their policy rate 25 basis points while the Fed is widely expected to hold on interest rates, with creeping uncertainty on whether Chair Warsh and company will hike in December, though that remains the market’s base case. The ECB is universally expected to hold rates at this Thursday’s meeting, with forward guidance the focus for whether the bank will hike in December, where the odds have dipped recently on the retreat in global bond yields and on the recent turbulence in French sovereign bonds. Similarly, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its rate unchanged at 1.25%, with guidance for a December hike the focus, which is 77% priced into forward expectations.</li> <li><strong>EURUSD </strong>traded near the 1.1220 level early Monday, us slightly from the Friday closing level, <strong>USDJPY found </strong>support Friday at a 1-month low of 156.08 and has bounced back to the 157.00 area since then, where it remained in early trading Monday after chopping back and forth in Tokyo trading hours.</li> <li><strong>EURGBP found support </strong><strong>Fri</strong><strong>day at a </strong><strong>17-</strong><strong>month low</strong> below 0.8360 and has bounced to near the 0.8390 area ahead of this Wednesday’s Autumn Budget Statement from Chancellor Healey,</li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Beyond AI: 5 market rotations to watch</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>AI spending is becoming a double-edged sword:</span></strong><span> Meta was punished for spending more, while Tesla fell despite cutting its investment plans.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The rotation is broadening:</span></strong><span> Software and cybersecurity outperformed semiconductors, while small caps, healthcare and energy offered alternatives to mega-cap technology.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Income deserves another look:</span></strong><span> Bonds rallied as Treasury yields fell, while quality dividend stocks offer investors another source of portfolio returns.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <hr /> <p><strong >A quiet week for indices, but a big shift underneath</strong></p> <p><span>I'm back from a week away, and catching up on the markets, one thing stands out: AI demand remains strong, but Wall Street is losing patience with the cost of delivering it.</span></p> <p><span>Last week's earnings from Meta and Tesla captured this contradiction particularly well.</span></p> <p><span>Meta reported impressive revenue growth of 26%, supported by a strong advertising business. Ad impressions increased 10%, while average ad prices rose 14%, showing that AI is already helping the company generate more revenue from its existing business.</span></p> <p><span>But Meta shares fell around 7%. Why? Because the company raised its 2026 capital spending outlook to $135–145 billion, while quarterly free cash flow turned negative.</span></p> <p><span>Investors can see the benefits of AI in Meta's advertising business today. What is harder to value is the enormous investment in new AI models and infrastructure, where future returns are still uncertain.</span></p> <p><span>Tesla faced almost the opposite problem.</span></p> <p><span>Its free cash flow surprised positively, and the company reduced its planned 2026 capital expenditure. Yet shares still fell, as investors questioned whether lower spending could slow progress in autonomous driving, robotics and other AI ambitions.</span></p> <p class="quote"><strong><span>Meta gets punished for spending more, while Tesla gets punished for spending less.</span></strong></p> <p><span>It sounds contradictory, but the underlying message is consistent: investors want spending to match credible returns. They are no longer rewarding bigger AI ambitions without asking tougher questions about cash flow, profitability and execution.</span></p> <p><span>The broader market also showed signs of change. The Nasdaq slipped around 0.7% last week, but the Russell 2000 gained almost 2%. Beneath the headline indices, some sectors performed significantly better than the technology leaders that have dominated market returns.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Last week at a glance: Where did the money move?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Weekly performance | 19–23 October 2026 | USD</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0" width="582" > <tbody> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Market / Sector</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Instrument</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Weekly change</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span class="underline; ">Broad markets</span></p> </td> <td ></td> <td ></td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>S&P 500</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Index</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>−0.5%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Nasdaq Composite</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Index</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>−0.7%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Russell 2000</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Index</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+2.0%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Dow Jones</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Index</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+0.4%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span class="underline; ">Technology rotation</span></p> </td> <td ></td> <td ></td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Cybersecurity</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>HACK ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+9.2%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Software</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>IGV ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+6.0%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Semiconductors</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>SMH ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>−2.3%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span class="underline; ">Other sectors</span></p> </td> <td ></td> <td ></td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Biotechnology</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>IBB ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+2.9%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Energy</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>XLE ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+1.6%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Healthcare</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>XLV ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+1.5%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Real estate</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>XLRE ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+1.0%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Consumer staples</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>XLP ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+0.7%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span class="underline; ">Bonds</span></p> </td> <td ></td> <td ></td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Long-duration US Treasuries</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>TLT ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+1.6%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>7–10 year US Treasuries</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>IEF ETF</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+0.7%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Investment-grade corporate bonds</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>LQD ETF</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>+0.4%</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span>Sources: Bloomberg, Saxo<br /> </span></p> <p><span>For investors, this creates five rotations worth watching:</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>1. From semiconductors to software and cybersecurity</span></strong></h3> <p><span>One of last week's most striking moves came within technology itself.</span></p> <p><span>The semiconductor ETF SOXX fell around 3%, while software ETF IGV gained nearly 6% and cybersecurity ETF HACK rallied roughly 9%.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean the AI infrastructure boom is over. Demand for computing power and memory remains strong. But the market is increasingly questioning whether the largest infrastructure investments can deliver equally large returns.</span></p> <p><span>The next opportunity may be in companies that help businesses actually use AI.</span></p> <p><span>Software companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce and ServiceNow could benefit as businesses use AI to automate everyday tasks, improve productivity and reduce costs. Cybersecurity companies such as Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike and Fortinet may benefit from the growing need to protect digital infrastructure and increasingly autonomous AI systems.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the focus should be on companies demonstrating real customer adoption, recurring revenue and stronger margins, rather than simply announcing new AI products.</span></p> <p><span>For traders, the relative performance of software ETFs such as IGV against semiconductor ETFs such as SOXX could provide clues about whether this rotation is gaining momentum.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The risk:</span></strong><span> Software valuations can also be expensive, and AI could disrupt some existing software business models. Strong earnings from major cloud companies could quickly revive semiconductor momentum.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span><br /> 2. From mega-cap technology to healthcare, energy and defensives</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Last week's market performance also showed that weakness in big technology stocks does not necessarily mean weakness everywhere.</span></p> <p><span>Healthcare stocks gained around 1.5%, biotechnology rose nearly 3%, and energy advanced as oil prices remained elevated.</span></p> <p><span>These sectors provide different drivers of earnings and returns.</span></p> <p><span>Healthcare companies such as Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie and Eli Lilly offer exposure to relatively resilient demand, medical innovation and longer-term trends such as ageing populations. Healthcare ETF XLV provides broader sector exposure.</span></p> <p><span>Energy companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron may benefit from elevated oil prices, although higher energy costs can also increase inflation pressures and weigh on economic growth.</span></p> <p><span>Consumer staples and utilities offer another route for investors seeking more predictable demand and cash flows. ETFs such as XLP and XLU provide diversified exposure.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the opportunity is to reduce dependence on a small group of mega-cap technology names and follow changes in market leadership.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The risk:</span></strong><span> Defensive sectors are not immune to falling markets, while energy performance remains closely linked to oil prices. A broader economic slowdown could also affect earnings.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span><br /> 3. From mega-cap concentration to small caps</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Another interesting shift last week was the outperformance of smaller companies. The Russell 2000 gained around 2%, even as the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq declined 0.7%.</span></p> <p><span>This suggests investors may be looking beyond the mega-cap technology stocks that have dominated market returns.</span></p> <p><span>Small caps offer exposure to a broader range of domestically focused businesses, many of which have been overlooked during the AI-led rally. They could benefit if economic growth remains resilient and market leadership continues to broaden.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, ETFs such as IWM (Russell 2000) and IJR (S&P SmallCap 600) provide diversified exposure. The latter has a profitability requirement for index inclusion, which may appeal to investors looking for greater quality within smaller companies.</span></p> <p><span>The relative performance of IWM against SPY is worth monitoring. Sustained small-cap outperformance could signal that the market rotation is becoming more established.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The risk:</span></strong><span> Small caps are generally more sensitive to borrowing costs, credit conditions and domestic economic growth. With Treasury yields still elevated and the Fed maintaining a tightening bias, a sustained rally will need support from earnings and financial conditions, not just a temporary move away from technology.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span><br /> 4. From capital gains to dividend income</span></strong></h3> <p><span>When technology stocks are rising sharply, dividends can seem relatively unexciting. But when valuations become harder to justify and share prices turn volatile, income starts looking more attractive.</span></p> <p><span>Quality dividend-paying stocks offer returns that are not entirely dependent on rising share prices.</span></p> <p><span>Investors could explore dividend growers such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson, financial companies with strong balance sheets, and selected utilities or REITs.</span></p> <p><span>Dividend-focused ETFs such as SCHD, VIG and DGRO provide diversified approaches to the theme. </span></p> <p><span>The important distinction is between a high dividend yield and a sustainable dividend. Companies with strong free cash flow, manageable debt and the ability to grow distributions may be better positioned than those offering high yields because their share prices have fallen.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The risk:</span></strong><span> Dividends can be reduced, and dividend-paying equities still carry capital risk. With government bonds offering competitive yields, equity income must compensate investors for taking additional risk.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span><br /> 5. From expensive growth stocks to bonds</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Bonds were another interesting part of last week's market action.</span></p> <p><span>The US 10-year Treasury yield fell by around 10 basis points to finish the week near 5%, while longer-duration Treasury bonds rallied as investors sought safety during the technology selloff.</span></p> <p><span>That is an important reminder of the different roles bonds can play in a portfolio.</span></p> <p><span>First, they offer income. With Treasury yields still close to 5%, investors can generate meaningful income without relying entirely on equity-market gains.</span></p> <p><span>Second, they offer potential diversification. Government bonds can benefit when equities fall because investors become concerned about growth or valuations.</span></p> <p><span>Third, they can offer capital gains if yields continue declining, particularly for longer-duration bonds.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, shorter- and intermediate-duration US Treasuries can offer income with less sensitivity to changes in interest rates than longer-duration bonds. ETFs such as SGOV and IEF provide examples, while TLT offers greater exposure to long-term yield movements.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The risk:</span></strong><span> Inflation remains elevated, and oil prices have risen. If the Fed signals further tightening or inflation expectations increase, Treasury yields could rise again, pressuring bond prices.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>What could change the picture this week?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The next few days could determine whether last week's market rotations have more room to run.</span></p> <p><span>Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. Investors will be watching cloud growth, AI spending, margins and free cash flow to determine whether these companies can justify their enormous infrastructure commitments.</span></p> <p><span>The Federal Reserve also announces its policy decision on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but investors will focus on whether policymakers signal another potential increase as inflation risks persist.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Market development</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Opportunities to watch</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>AI earnings beat and spending generates visible returns</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Semiconductor and AI infrastructure rebound</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>AI adoption strengthens but capex concerns remain</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Software and cybersecurity</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Market gains spread beyond mega-cap technology</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Healthcare, energy and defensive sectors</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Bond yields continue falling</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Treasuries, REITs and dividend stocks</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Inflation persists and yields rise</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Short-duration bonds and companies with strong cash flow</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Coming back from a week away, the biggest change I see is not that investors have lost faith in AI. It is that the market is demanding even more evidence of returns and showing greater willingness to explore opportunities elsewhere.</span></p> <p><span>This creates a broader investing landscape.</span></p> <p><span>Semiconductors remain an important part of the AI story, but software and cybersecurity could capture greater attention as adoption grows. Healthcare and energy offer different earnings drivers. Dividend-paying stocks and bonds provide alternative sources of income and potential diversification.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The AI trade may not be over. But the market is reminding us that there is more than one way to make money.</span></strong></p> <p><span> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Corporate Bonds</span> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>High yield bonds</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span></span> <span>Consumer Goods</span> <span>Small cap</span> <span>Small Caps</span> <span>Small Cap Stocks</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Cybersecurity</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Fed, ECB and BOJ: Three decisions, three FX trades</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Fed:</span></strong><span> Rates are expected to stay at 3.75–4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance on a possible December hike will drive the dollar.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ECB:</span></strong><span> A hold at 2.50% is expected, but French fiscal stress and elevated oil prices complicate the euro outlook.</span></li> <li><strong><span>BOJ:</span></strong><span> Rates are expected to remain at 1.25%, with attention shifting to a possible December hike and its implications for yen carry trades.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>1. Fed: Can Warsh keep the dollar supported?</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Thursday, 29 October | 2am SGT</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>What is expected?</span></strong><span> The Fed is widely expected to hold rates after September's 25bp hike. But there are expectations for another hike in December, making Warsh's guidance on the timing of further tightening the key market catalyst.</span></p> <p><span>Inflation remains elevated, partly due to higher energy costs, but the Fed must also consider signs of labour-market weakness.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Two scenarios:</span></strong></h4> <ul > <li><strong><span>Hawkish hold:</span></strong><span> Warsh keeps December tightening firmly on the table. US yields and USD could rise, pressuring EUR/USD and gold.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Dovish hold:</span></strong><span> Greater emphasis on growth and employment risks could reduce hike expectations, weighing on USD and supporting gold.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>EUR/USD (1.1221):</span></strong><span> A break below <strong>1.1113</strong> opens <strong>1.1000</strong>. A dovish surprise could lift the pair towards <strong>1.1254</strong>, then <strong>1.1341</strong>.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Gold (USD 3,992):</span></strong><span> The <strong>4,000</strong> level is under pressure. A hawkish Fed risks a move towards <strong>3,886</strong>, while falling real yields could support a rebound towards <strong>4,220–4,293</strong>.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <p><strong><span>Trade bias:</span></strong><span> EUR/USD remains vulnerable on rebounds, while gold's recovery case needs confirmation from lower US real yields.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>2. ECB: Can the euro escape fiscal pressure?</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Thursday, 29 October | 9:15pm SGT</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>What is expected?</span></strong><span> The ECB is widely expected to hold its deposit rate at <strong>2.50%</strong>. Lagarde is likely to preserve flexibility rather than signal an imminent rate change.</span></p> <p><span>Three pressures matter:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>France:</span></strong><span> Moody's retained its Aa3 rating, but the negative outlook remains. Political uncertainty, budget challenges and elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on sentiment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Oil:</span></strong><span> High energy prices raise imported inflation while weakening household purchasing power and growth.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Bond yields:</span></strong><span> Rising French yields driven by fiscal concerns may hurt rather than help EUR.</span></li> </ul> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Two scenarios:</span></strong></h4> <ul > <li><strong><span>Hawkish ECB:</span></strong><span> Inflation concerns dominate, offering temporary euro support if sovereign spreads stabilise.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Cautious ECB:</span></strong><span> Growth and financial-stability risks take priority, leaving EUR vulnerable.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>EUR/USD positioning:</span></strong><span> Resistance sits at <strong>1.1254</strong>, followed by <strong>1.1341</strong> and <strong>1.1430–1.1483</strong>. Support is <strong>1.1113</strong>.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <p><strong><span>Trade bias:</span></strong><span> Failed EUR/USD rebounds remain interesting, particularly if French-German bond spreads widen. <strong>EUR/CHF</strong> is another cross to watch if fiscal stress triggers safe-haven demand.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>3. BOJ: Can December hike expectations support JPY?</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Friday, 30 October | Asia session</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>What is expected?</span></strong><span> The BOJ is expected to hold at <strong>1.25%</strong> after September's hike. In a Bloomberg survey, <strong>83% of economists expected the next hike in December</strong>, making the inflation forecasts and Governor Ueda's guidance more important than the immediate decision.</span></p> <p><span>Higher oil prices are a mixed force for JPY: they increase imported inflation and strengthen the case for tightening, but also worsen Japan's energy-import bill.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Two scenarios:</span></strong></h4> <ul > <li><strong><span>Hawkish hold:</span></strong><span> Higher inflation forecasts or stronger December hike signals could support JPY, especially if the Fed has been dovish.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Cautious hold:</span></strong><span> A lack of urgency could revive carry trades and support USD/JPY.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>USD/JPY (156.75):</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Support:</span></strong><span> 156.00, then <strong>155.00</strong> and <strong>153.00–154.00</strong>.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Resistance:</span></strong><span> <strong>157.52</strong>, <strong>158.54</strong>, then <strong>159.31–160.00</strong>.</span></li> </ul> <span><br /> </span> <p><strong><span>Trade bias:</span></strong><span> USD/JPY rebounds towards <strong>157.50–158.50</strong> could face resistance if US yields ease and the BOJ maintains its tightening bias. A hawkish Fed and patient BOJ would challenge that view.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Bottom line: Three central banks, different FX risks</span></strong></h3> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="569"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Policy combination</span></strong></p> </td> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Potential FX reaction</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Hawkish Fed + cautious ECB</span></strong></p> </td> <td valign="top" > <p><span>EUR/USD downside towards 1.1113</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Dovish Fed + hawkish BOJ</span></strong></p> </td> <td valign="top" > <p><span>USD/JPY downside towards 155</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Dovish Fed + lower real yields</span></strong></p> </td> <td valign="top" > <p><span>Gold recovery towards 4,220</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" > <p><strong><span>Hawkish Fed + patient BOJ</span></strong></p> </td> <td valign="top"> <p ><span>USD/JPY rebound towards 159–160</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong ><span>The key distinction for traders:</span></strong><span > Higher yields driven by monetary tightening may support a currency, while higher yields driven by fiscal stress can weaken it. That makes the reaction in US Treasuries, French-German bond spreads and Japanese government bonds just as important as the central-bank statements themselves.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 26 October, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 26 Oct 2026 01:34:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Houthis continues attacks on Saudi. US consumer sentiment edges up.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Dow fell 1.2% with risk weaker on higher oil, AI capex concerns</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>CME BRL futures plunge 10% after Lula wins Brazil’s presidential election</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent crude eased after hitting $117, a five-month high</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasury yields up across the curve; 10-year near 5.0%</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up to 48.0 in late October but remained a five-month low</span></strong></span><span>. Year-ahead business conditions improved but stayed well below last year, while current conditions fell on an 18% drop in buying conditions for durables. Sentiment is 10% below a year ago and 15% below February. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-run expectations to 3.5%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia persisted over the weekend as Riyadh’s main airport reopened after a two-week shutdown</span></strong><span>. Trump said he is close to deciding whether to strike Iran again or pursue a deal, keeping oil markets on edge.</span></li> <li><strong><span>President Lula reportedly won Brazil’s runoff with about 51%</span></strong><span> of the vote, ending a right</span>‑<span>wing wave in Latin America, while the real fell sharply in futures trading.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Moody’s left France’s Aa3 rating unchanged on Friday, with a negative outlook. The OAT-Bund spread surged 29 bps last week</span></strong><span>—its second-largest weekly rise on record—to about 170 bps, the widest since the 2011 eurozone debt crisis.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4</span></strong><span>, still indicating strong expansion. New orders hit a 4.5-year high, exports and employment strengthened, but rising input costs pushed selling-price inflation to its highest since August 2022, while confidence edged down.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Canadian retail sales are seen up 0.7% m/m in September after a revised 1.2% gain in August.</span></strong><span> August growth was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.2%), gasoline stations (+1.7% in value, –0.5% in volume), and higher sales at food and beverage (+1.1%), general merchandise (+1%), and health and personal care stores (+1.6%).</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> US equities fell for a second consecutive session on Friday as surging oil prices stoked inflation concerns ahead of the Fed decision. S&P 500 dropped 0.5% to 7,623.68, the Dow Jones fell 1.2% to 52,215.16, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to 25,955.34. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index edged up 0.4% after Thursday's 6.7% rout. <strong>Bloom Energy was the largest S&P 500 decliner, falling 11.2%</strong>. American Express fell 3.6% after earnings. Fair Isaac (FICO) slumped 8% in after-hours trading after announcing it would hold its wholesale mortgage price flat.</li> <li><strong>EU:</strong> European equities fell for a second day as disappointing earnings compounded AI trade concerns and elevated oil prices. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.3% to 635.76, the DAX fell 0.7% to 25,181.65, the CAC 40 declined 0.4% to 7,782.82, and the FTSE 100 lost 0.3% to 10,690.36.<strong> Kering was the largest Stoxx 600 decliner, falling 16.6%, as Gucci sales disappointed. Volvo Car sank as much as 32% after reporting a third-quarter loss. </strong>Safran fell 10.0%. Electrolux surged as much as 12% after its Q3 EBIT beat expectations. The Euro Stoxx 50 ended the week 2.2% lower, its largest weekly decline since July.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities opened under pressure as investors braced for the busiest earnings week of the season and key central bank decisions. The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge fell 0.2%. The Kospi opened 0.9% lower at 5,499 and extended losses to around 1% as risk sentiment remained fragile; Kospi futures had been weaker overnight partly on the Brazil election result. Nikkei futures slipped 0.4%, though Fanuc surged as much as 6.2% — its biggest gain since July 31 — after raising its full-year operating income guidance to a record on strong AI data centre demand. The Hang Seng closed Friday at 23,093.37, up 0.7%, recovering from Thursday's 3% selloff, led by Xiaomi (+3.9%) and Aluminum Corp of China (+7.0%). The STI reference level stands at 5,422.16. Chinese stocks found some support after entering bear market territory on Thursday, with state-backed funds reportedly stepping in via ETF purchases. <strong>SK Hynix is expected to announce a special dividend of approximately $12 billion when it reports Q3 earnings on 28 October.</strong></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Tuesday: Coca-Cola, Boeing, PayPal, Visa, HSBC</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Ford, Ping An Insurance, PetroChina, Hitachi, SK Hynix</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Intel, Amazon, BYD, Denso, Keyence, Wilmar International</span></li> <li><span>Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>USDJPY </strong>hovers near 157, up slightly on the day. The yen has broken out of its recent narrow range as AI-driven risk-off demand fades, though Goldman Sachs notes the yen is becoming a more attractive hedge for pro-cyclical portfolios against an AI market shock. Hedge funds reportedly curtailed short yen positions in the week ending 20 October per CFTC data.</li> <li><strong>EURUSD </strong>edged up 0.1% to around 1.08, though the euro remains under pressure from the French fiscal crisis. The OAT-Bund spread at 15-year highs continues to weigh on the single currency.</li> <li><strong>AUDUSD </strong>slipped 0.09% and faces technical resistance at the 200-day moving average near 0.7053, with the 50-DMA set to add further headwinds. The pair is consolidating after recent weakness.</li> <li><strong>CME BRL futures</strong> plunge >10% to below 18 after Lula’s victory, reversing a Brazil rerating built on Bolsonaro-presidency expectations, pressuring the real and equities and steepening the DI curve.</li> <li>The <strong>Norwegian krone</strong> is the best-performing G10 currency year-to-date, up 8.15% against the dollar to around 9.33, outperforming the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index by approximately 6.7 percentage points, supported by elevated oil prices.</li> </ul> <p><strong ><span>Commodities:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> eased approximately 0.9% to $115.63 and WTI fell 1.1% to $102.13 in early Monday trading, pulling back from Friday's close near $117 — a five-month high — as President Trump signalled he is nearing a decision on Iran. Both benchmarks remain sharply elevated on Middle East supply risk, with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Iranian strikes on Hormuz shipping continuing to disrupt flows.</li> <li><strong>Gold </strong>is trading around $3,988/oz, down 0.2% on the day, after posting its biggest weekly decline since June last week — falling more than 4% — as rising real yields and a stronger dollar weighed. Gold briefly dipped below $4,000 on Friday, with the GLD ETF recording its largest single-day outflow since 4 March at $1.56 billion.</li> <li><strong>European natural gas futures </strong>rose as much as 0.9% at the start of the week, touching the highest level since 2022, driven by elevated energy demand and ongoing geopolitical risk to supply routes.</li> </ul> <p><span ><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span ><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The <strong>10-year yield </strong>stands at 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.31% as of Monday morning, with the curve seeing modest bull-flattening overnight after Friday's selloff. On Friday, yields rose across the curve — the 10-year added 4 basis points to close near 5.0% and the 30-year rose 4.3 basis points to 5.33% — as oil-driven inflation fears kept a lid on bonds. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.64%, up 72 basis points year-to-date.</li> <li><strong>The France-Germany 10-year spread</strong> surged 29 basis points last week to approximately 170 basis points — the second-largest weekly widening on record and the widest since the 2011 eurozone debt crisis — as political unrest and fiscal concerns intensified. Moody's spared France a downgrade on Friday but maintained a negative outlook, citing slower growth, a higher deficit, and social unrest as ongoing risks.</li> <li><strong>EM bond funds</strong> have recorded 12 consecutive weeks of inflows according to BofA/EPFR data, with investors from JPMorgan Asset Management to Generali loading up on EM debt despite the surge in Treasury yields, citing attractive valuations and a diversification away from rich-world fiscal risk.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>A big day for equities, but a bigger one for bonds.</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Equity market breadth tells different story.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/a-big-day-for-equities-but-a-bigger-one-for-bonds/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>John's The FX Trader from today <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-can-the-real-jpy-please-stand-up-23102026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Will the real JPY please stand up?</em></a></span>, talking especially USD and JPY and next week's five central bank meets.</li> <li>The <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8a558139-2318-4509-8acd-199d5f888b9e?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Captain America program for dogs?</a></span> Sounds creepy and hopefully without any super serums. Weren't we supposed to deploy robots instead?</li> <li>The Wired on <span><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ice-age-beginning-then-humans-started-burning-fossil-fuels/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the ice age that wasn't because we humans like to burn stuff</a></span>.</li> <li>A <span><a href="https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2113360930876580337?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heightened cyber-attack risk PSA</a></span> - please be careful out there!</li> </ul> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Three per cent of the range, one session left - Options Brief - 23 October 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Thursday took 93 points out of the S&P 500 and left the index four points higher on the week. The option market spent the session repricing the next few days rather than the market.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The S&P 500 is four points higher on the week and every volatility measure on the board is higher with it.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | VIX 19.03 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.39) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.410</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p><strong>The short version.</strong> Thursday’s fall was large in the index and small in the week. The S&P 500 lost <strong>1.21%</strong> but the equal-weighted version of it rose <strong>0.77%</strong>, and after four of five sessions the index has used <strong>3%</strong> of the range the option market priced for this week. The repricing sat at the front of the volatility curve, where a single session now costs <strong>0.80</strong> of a month against <strong>0.68</strong> a day earlier.</p> <p><strong>Markets.</strong> The S&P 500 closed at <strong>7,663.43</strong> and the Nasdaq 100 fell <strong>2.90%</strong>, with semiconductors down <strong>5.99%</strong> and Meta <strong>6.98%</strong> after it set out capital-spending plans of <strong>135</strong> to <strong>145</strong> billion dollars a year. Utilities, healthcare and financials all rose. US Treasuries had their strongest session in more than two years and the ten-year closed below <strong>5%</strong> for the first time in a month, at <strong>4.97%</strong>. Brent held near <strong>114</strong> dollars while gold slipped below <strong>4,000</strong>. Europe fell about a per cent with euro-zone banks down <strong>4.17%</strong>, and Asia steadied overnight.</p> <p><strong>Volatility curve.</strong> All fourteen measures on the chart rose. The one-day gauge gained <strong>33.39%</strong> to <strong>15.18</strong> and the nine-day <strong>21.76%</strong>, against <strong>2.68%</strong> for the one-year. The bond gauge added <strong>11.36%</strong> to <strong>106.85</strong>. The front VIX future is November at <strong>19.410</strong>, above December at <strong>19.270</strong>, while the cash curve still slopes upward throughout. Implied correlation rose <strong>13.48%</strong> to <strong>14.56</strong> and dispersion held at <strong>37.80</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Single names.</strong> The index moved further than the names inside it. Median implied-volatility rank rose to <strong>46.7</strong> from <strong>42.8</strong> across <strong>187</strong> US underlyings, a shallow drift, while the Nasdaq 100 fund’s own implied volatility rose <strong>20.9%</strong> and its rank to <strong>72.3</strong> from <strong>43.0</strong>. High rank sits in consumer discretionary and energy, not in the names that fell.</p> <p><strong>Flow.</strong> Yesterday’s ten reports gave no readable direction. The two lines that did carry a side were credit hedges, not equity ones.</p> <p><strong>This week’s range.</strong> The S&P 500 has used <strong>3%</strong> of its band and gold <strong>166%</strong>, closing below the lower bound. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>29%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>5%</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Earnings and catalysts.</strong> UBS is priced at <strong>2.1x</strong> its own eight-report history into Wednesday and Apple at <strong>0.4x</strong> into Thursday. Today brings euro-zone and US flash activity surveys, with both US releases landing inside the session that today’s expiry settles on. The 30 October expiry, which covers the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, prices <strong>1.895%</strong>.</p> <p><strong>What it adds up to.</strong> Today’s expiry prices <strong>0.723%</strong>, against <strong>59.60</strong> points quoted for this same contract a session ago when decay alone would have left about <strong>42.1</strong>. In our view that may be better read as a repricing of the next few days than of the market.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>US Treasuries had their strongest session in more than two years. The two-year yield fell close to <strong>20</strong> basis points at one point before settling near <strong>4.65%</strong>, and the ten-year ended below <strong>5%</strong> for the first time in a month, at <strong>4.97%</strong>. The move came out of equities rather than the data: US initial jobless claims fell <strong>6,000</strong> to <strong>194,000</strong>, the lowest since mid-July.</p> <p>Driving it was a second day of doubt about the return on artificial-intelligence spending. Meta fell <strong>6.98%</strong> despite beating on revenue, as investors weighed annual capital-spending plans of <strong>135</strong> to <strong>145</strong> billion dollars and a new class of non-voting shares created to help pay for them. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped <strong>6.7%</strong>.</p> <p>Oil pulled the other way. Brent held near <strong>114</strong> dollars on attacks against Saudi infrastructure, leaving an inflation risk underneath a bond rally built on the opposite worry.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Thursday 22 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,663.43</strong>, down <strong>1.21%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>28,958.69</strong>, down <strong>2.90%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,873.28</strong>, up <strong>0.02%</strong>. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>0.77%</strong>, while semiconductors fell <strong>5.99%</strong> and technology <strong>3.29%</strong>. Utilities, healthcare and financials all gained.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 fell <strong>1.05%</strong> to <strong>637.75</strong> and the Euro Stoxx 50 <strong>1.94%</strong>, with the DAX down <strong>1.07%</strong>. Euro-zone banks fell <strong>4.17%</strong>. ASML lost <strong>5%</strong>. The German to French ten-year spread closed above <strong>174</strong> basis points, its widest of the cycle since 2012.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Friday morning):</strong> the Hang Seng was up <strong>0.58%</strong> at <strong>23,066.79</strong> while the CSI 300 eased <strong>0.54%</strong>. The Nikkei 225 fell <strong>0.6%</strong> and the Kospi recovered from an early decline of nearly <strong>4%</strong> to close to flat. Taiwan was shut for a typhoon.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent traded at <strong>113.65</strong> and WTI at <strong>100.05</strong>. Gold futures eased <strong>0.77%</strong> to <strong>4,029.20</strong> and the gold fund <strong>2.63%</strong>, with spot gold slipping below <strong>4,000</strong> overnight. Silver hit an eleven-month low near <strong>54</strong> and gold miners lost <strong>5.80%</strong>. The ten-year yield was <strong>4.966%</strong>, the thirty-year <strong>5.292%</strong> and the two-year <strong>4.654%</strong>, each down. Bitcoin held at <strong>81,770</strong> while the largest bitcoin fund fell <strong>3.72%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> neutral and choppy, the VIX at <strong>19.03</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>152.39</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 23 October 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Every one of the fourteen measures on the chart rose, which is the most useful single fact about the session. The front moved most: VIX1D gained <strong>33.39%</strong> to <strong>15.18</strong> and VIX9D <strong>21.76%</strong> to <strong>18.86</strong>, against <strong>2.68%</strong> for the one-year. The curve now sits in the upper half of its sixty-session band rather than the bottom.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.80</strong> against <strong>0.68</strong>, so a single session is priced much closer to a month than it was. VIX3M/VIX fell to <strong>1.06</strong> from <strong>1.12</strong> as the front came up toward the back. VXN/VIX rose to <strong>1.51</strong> from <strong>1.46</strong>, the Nasdaq gauge at <strong>28.72</strong>, which is where the repricing concentrated.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> The front is November at <strong>19.410</strong> and the second December at <strong>19.270</strong>, a ratio of <strong>1.005</strong>. The series rolled on Wednesday 21 October, so both of this week’s readings are the same November contract: it rose <strong>0.710</strong> while spot rose <strong>2.35</strong>, compressing the premium to spot to <strong>0.38</strong> points from <strong>2.02</strong>. The cash curve still slopes upward throughout, so the kink sits in the futures alone, and the November window carries the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, mega-cap results and the 3 November midterms.</p> <p><strong>Rates and correlation.</strong> The bond gauge rose <strong>11.36%</strong> to <strong>106.85</strong> and gold volatility <strong>13.06%</strong> to <strong>24.15</strong>. Implied correlation rose <strong>13.48%</strong> to <strong>14.56</strong> and dispersion <strong>1.78%</strong> to <strong>37.80</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>The index measures above moved further than the names inside them. On an identical <strong>187</strong> US underlyings the median implied-volatility rank rose to <strong>46.7</strong> from <strong>42.8</strong>, and on the common set of <strong>337</strong> euro-zone names to <strong>47.6</strong> from <strong>45.9</strong>. Median implied volatility across the valid common set of <strong>524</strong> names rose <strong>0.74</strong> of a point to <strong>33.53</strong>. The share of US names above rank <strong>50</strong> rose to <strong>44.9%</strong> from <strong>36.9%</strong>.</p> <p>So the single-name surface rose broadly and shallowly: <strong>197</strong> of the <strong>524</strong> names gained more than five points of rank and <strong>44</strong> lost more than five. That is a drift, not a shock.</p> <p>The sharp repricing sat in the funds. Implied volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fund rose <strong>20.9%</strong> and its rank to <strong>72.3</strong> from <strong>43.0</strong>, the semiconductor fund to rank <strong>50.9</strong> from <strong>31.4</strong>, while single-name implied volatility mostly moved between zero and ten per cent. In our view that gap is what an index-level event looks like in the surface, and may be why implied correlation rose while dispersion barely moved.</p> <p>High rank is not where the selling was. Among US names the highest median ranks sit in consumer discretionary at <strong>69.0</strong> and energy at <strong>66.5</strong>, against <strong>39.8</strong> for semiconductors. Nvidia’s rank rose to <strong>53.6</strong> from <strong>36.6</strong>, while Meta’s fell to <strong>42.6</strong> from <strong>63.9</strong> as its event premium came out after reporting. One caveat: the mega-caps’ front expiry is today, so a one-session change carries a roll effect too.</p> <p><em>Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 22 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the large lines are deep in-the-money put packages, rolls and mid-market prints with no side, and the put-heavy premium split is an intrinsic-value artefact rather than a view.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> was equally unreadable, with two exceptions worth naming: confirmed ask-side buying of high-yield credit downside, and a far out-of-the-money regional-bank put bought ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision. Both are credit hedges rather than equity ones.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Four sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Thursday’s close. Straddles come from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Four sessions in, the S&P 500 has used <strong>3%</strong> of the <strong>119.13</strong> points, <strong>1.56%</strong>, priced around Friday’s close, and sits <strong>3.99</strong> points above where the week started. Thursday’s <strong>93.74</strong> point fall gave back the four sessions before it rather than opening a new range.</p> <p>Gold is the other extreme, at <strong>166%</strong> of its band, closing at <strong>369.00</strong> against a lower bound of <strong>374.17</strong>. That range finished before the week did.</p> <p>Between them, the Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>29%</strong> downward, energy <strong>33%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>5%</strong>. The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month and does not compare with the five above it.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>08:00 CET</strong> UK September retail sales.</li> <li><strong>09:15 to 10:30 CET</strong> October flash purchasing managers’ indices for France, Germany, the euro zone and the UK, with ECB consumer inflation expectations at <strong>10:00</strong>.</li> <li><strong>15:45 CET</strong> US October flash purchasing managers’ index, then University of Michigan sentiment for October at <strong>16:00</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> American Express, Eni and SLB.</li> </ul> <p>Both US releases land after the <strong>15:30 CET</strong> cash open and well before the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> close, so today’s expiry settles on the reaction to them rather than on the run-up.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, for the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether an expected move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The spread between what is priced and what each name has done runs from <strong>2.1x</strong> to <strong>0.4x</strong>. UBS is richest, at <strong>6.5%</strong> into Wednesday against an eight-report average of <strong>3.1%</strong>, after its expected move rose <strong>2.7</strong> points in a day. Apple is cheapest, at <strong>1.0%</strong> against <strong>2.5%</strong>, with Microsoft next at <strong>4.5%</strong> against <strong>7.0%</strong>.</p> <p>Rank and the event premium answer different questions, and the board shows it plainly. Novartis carries a rank of <strong>67</strong> and prices <strong>2.9%</strong>; Apple almost the same at <strong>66</strong> and prices <strong>1.0%</strong>; UBS sits lower at <strong>54</strong> and prices the widest move. Rank measures where a name sits in its own year. The event premium measures one day.</p> <p>Meta is the completed example: priced at <strong>6.7%</strong>, it moved <strong>7.0%</strong>. Next are Novartis on Tuesday, UBS, Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> SPX options price <strong>55.45</strong> points, <strong>0.723%</strong>, for today’s expiry. A session ago the same contract was quoted at <strong>59.60</strong> points with two sessions left. The clock alone would have left about <strong>42.1</strong>, so roughly <strong>13.3</strong> points went in beyond the decay. That is the clearest measure of the front-end repricing.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> the 30 October expiry prices <strong>145.40</strong> points, <strong>1.895%</strong>, covering the 28 October Federal Reserve decision. No recent edition quoted that expiry, so there is no like-for-like comparison to draw.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal:</strong> SKEW rose <strong>2.03</strong> points to <strong>152.39</strong> and the tail-risk index <strong>28.74%</strong>. The tail was already expensive and got more so, on a session when the index fell only <strong>1.21%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation rose <strong>13.48%</strong> to <strong>14.56</strong> while dispersion held at <strong>37.80</strong>. In our view the market may have begun paying for names to move together again, though <strong>14.56</strong> is still low and one session does not make a regime.</li> </ul> <p>In our view the session may be better read as a repricing of the next few days than of the market. The index gave back its week, the front of the curve took the adjustment, and the names inside it moved far less than the funds tracking them.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/the-markdown-was-all-in-the-wings---options-brief---22-october-2026-22102026" data-id="C74E31EC7CFA46C3973A0A010260BE16" data-type="Article">The markdown was all in the wings - Options Brief - 22 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/cancellation-not-calm---options-brief---21-october-2026-21102026" data-id="90DF0B9E671C432AAD9074472370A1F5" data-type="Article">Cancellation not calm - Options Brief - 21 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chipmakers-tumble-and-the-ten-year-drops-below-5---23-october-2026-23102026" data-id="BC5472C7FC99409285B65F68DAC1A25D" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chipmakers tumble and the ten-year drops below 5 - 23 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chip-stocks-sold-off-after-key-earnings---22-october-2026-22102026" data-id="2CE6528B3F8841C3BD68FB3CAD1DE497" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chip stocks sold off after key earnings - 22 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodity weekly: Crowded trades unwind as energy risks intensify</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong></strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong> </strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Key Points:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" > <strong>Positioning drives volatility: </strong>Crowded trades across bonds, equities and commodities are being unwound, amplifying price movements and, in some cases, overwhelming underlying fundamentals. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Energy remains the inflationary outlier</strong>: Escalating Middle East tensions support crude oil and refined products, while European and Asian gas prices rise amid concerns about winter supplies. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Metals face contrasting challenges</strong>: Gold and silver suffer technical selling despite lower bond yields, while copper remains vulnerable to US tariff uncertainty and the potential reversal of extraordinary inventory stockpiling. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Growth concerns meet supply risks</strong>: Iron ore weakness highlights China's struggling steel sector, while selling across grains and soft commodities reflects a combination of bearish fundamentals and elevated speculative positioning.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">A week dominated by positioning and conflicting signals</h3> <p>Commodity markets have gone through another mixed and at times turbulent week amid a broader risk-off environment, with AI-led weakness across global equity markets, mounting concerns about French government debt and rising energy prices all weighing on investor sentiment. Together, these developments have heightened concerns about the outlook for growth and inflation, triggering sharp reversals across financial markets and exposing increasingly stretched speculative positions.</p> <p>The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a modest weekly decline but remains up more than 35% year-to-date. Energy has once again provided the main support, led by gasoil and Brent crude, while precious metals and grains have suffered the heaviest losses. Silver has fallen around 5.5%, wheat close to 5%, and gold more than 3%, while industrial metals and soft commodities have delivered mixed performances.</p> <p>The common theme has been the unwinding of crowded positions. Previously oversold US Treasuries have rallied sharply, while selling was seen in several commodities such as copper and sugar that in recent weeks had attracted substantial speculative interest. This has produced some seemingly contradictory developments: bond yields have fallen despite renewed inflation concerns, gold has weakened despite safe-haven demand, and oil has rallied even as worries about economic growth intensify.</p> <p>The correction does not necessarily signal a fundamental change in the longer-term commodity outlook. Instead, it highlights how positioning can temporarily dominate price discovery, particularly when investors become less willing to carry risk.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Commodities one week returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">Energy: Supply risks intensify despite mounting growth concerns</h3> <p>Crude oil remains the clearest example of supply concerns outweighing a deteriorating demand outlook. Brent has climbed above USD 114 per barrel and is heading for its highest weekly close since June 2022 as attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure raise fears of wider Middle East supply disruptions.</p> <p>Meanwhile, reports that the US and Israel have developed plans for potential renewed strikes against Iran following next month's US midterm elections have added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. This risk is reinforced by reports that a third US aircraft carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East.</p> <p>WTI is trading back above USD 100 but continues to lag Brent, leaving the international benchmark's premium above USD 13. The widening spread reflects the increasingly uneven impact of the Middle East conflict on regional crude availability, transportation costs and the value of barrels located outside the disrupted supply chains.</p> <p>For now, crude exports from the region have proved relatively resilient, helped by alternative routes and logistical adjustments. However, the market is increasingly concerned that further attacks could damage production, processing or export infrastructure, creating disruptions that cannot easily be resolved by rerouting shipments.</p> <p>Refined products remain particularly exposed, with diesel and gasoil continuing to trade above USD 200, supported by tight supplies amid a very slow recovery in shipments from the Persian Gulf, a major global refinery hub. European and Asian natural gas prices have also risen amid concerns about winter supplies, with benchmark European TTF futures gaining around 7% this week, reaching a four-year high at EUR 93.50 per MWh (≈ USD 30.5 per MMBtu), as relatively low storage levels leave the region increasingly dependent on continued imports through the approaching winter.</p> <p>To put the supply challenge into perspective, European gas inventories currently stand at around 845 TWh, approximately 100 TWh below the level recorded at this time last year. That shortfall alone is equivalent to the energy carried by more than 80 large LNG carriers, highlighting the scale of additional imports required to rebuild the buffer ahead of winter. Relative to the five-year average, the shortfall increases to almost 140 LNG carriers.</p> <p>In contrast, US natural gas has fallen sharply, heading into the weekend around USD 2.70 per MMBtu, amid mild weather demand and strong production, highlighting the distinctly different regional supply balances.</p> <p>The broader concern is that another sustained rise in energy prices could reinforce inflation pressures just as economic activity shows signs of slowing. Such a development would complicate the outlook for monetary policy and increase the risk of stagflation, with energy remaining supported even as other commodities struggle.</p> <h3></h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Global gas prices and EU stockpiles - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">Precious metals: Technical selling overwhelms traditional support</h3> <p>Gold's decline has been particularly notable because it has occurred alongside a powerful rally in US Treasuries. Normally, falling bond yields and increased demand for safe havens would provide support, but this week momentum-driven selling and long liquidation have overwhelmed those influences.</p> <p>Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,000 during Friday's Asian session after Thursday's break below support around USD 4,060 accelerated technical selling. The metal is heading for its steepest weekly decline in several months and potentially its weakest weekly close since November, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns about the stability of the equity market rally.</p> <p>Silver has suffered an even sharper setback, falling towards an 11-month low near USD 54. The gold-silver ratio has climbed above 74, also an 11-month high, reflecting silver's relative weakness amid broader risk reduction and concerns about industrial demand.</p> <p>The latest price action suggests that short-term speculative selling is currently outweighing demand from longer-term investors, who have continued to accumulate gold through ETFs almost uninterrupted since July, seeking protection against fiscal instability, currency debasement and geopolitical risks.</p> <p>Importantly, the correction does not necessarily invalidate gold's longer-term investment case. However, it demonstrates that even assets supported by structural demand can suffer substantial setbacks when speculative positions are reduced.</p> <p>Attention now turns to whether gold can stabilise, with focus on an ascending trendline connecting the October 2025 and July 2026 lows, currently providing support near USD 3,985. Meanwhile, the broken USD 4,060 level may offer initial resistance ahead of key resistance around USD 4,230. A sustained recovery will likely require stabilising energy prices, continued demand from central banks and ETF investors, and, not least, evidence that the recent wave of long liquidation has run its course.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold and investment flows - Source: Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">Copper: Extraordinary US stockpiles put tariffs firmly in focus</h3> <p>Copper remains under pressure, with HG futures lower on the week after breaking below support around USD 6.52. Although concerns about the sustainability of AI-related investment have contributed to weaker sentiment, there is currently limited evidence of a material deterioration in the longer-term demand outlook from electrification, power grids and data centres.</p> <p>A more immediate concern is the extraordinary geographical imbalance in copper inventories and uncertainty surrounding future US trade policy.</p> <p>Inventories monitored by the three major futures exchanges have risen for a fourth consecutive week to approximately 1.05 million tonnes. A 19.6 kt decline in Shanghai, taking stocks near a two-and-a-half-year low, was more than offset by increases of 6.8 kt on COMEX and 47.5 kt at the LME, with most of the latter entering US warehouses.</p> <p>Combined COMEX and US-based LME stocks have now reached 893 kt, representing approximately 85% of the global exchange-monitored total. This remarkable concentration reflects months of tariff-driven stockpiling, leaving inventories outside the US relatively tight despite the overall increase. Against this backdrop, traders will increasingly focus on Washington's pending decision on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports, potentially from January 2027.</p> <p>A decision against tariffs could trigger an unwinding of the stockpiling trade if changes in regional spreads provide sufficient incentive to release US-held metal back into international markets. Such a development could weigh on prices, although the timing and scale of physical outflows would depend on regional price incentives, freight costs and warehouse logistics. Conversely, the introduction of tariffs could reinforce regional price distortions and encourage metal to remain within US borders, thereby keeping stockpiles tight elsewhere.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Iron ore: China's structural weakness becomes increasingly visible</h3> <p>While copper's immediate challenges centre on trade policy and inventory distortions, iron ore faces a more fundamental problem: weak Chinese demand combined with abundant global supply. Singapore-traded iron ore futures briefly slipped below USD 90 per tonne this week, reaching a two-year low and extending their year-to-date decline to approximately 15%.</p> <p>China's prolonged property downturn continues to undermine steel consumption, while subdued construction activity is keeping steel mills under pressure. At the same time, ample seaborne supplies and the prospect of additional production are limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.</p> <p>The contrast with copper is important. Copper's long-term demand outlook remains supported by electrification and infrastructure investment, while iron ore remains heavily dependent on China's traditional construction and property sectors. Without a meaningful improvement in Chinese steel demand or stronger production discipline, iron ore may struggle to recover.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">SGX Iron Ore futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> </h2> <h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">Agriculture: Crowded positions meet less supportive fundamentals</h3> <p>Grains and soft commodities provide further evidence of positioning-driven volatility. Wheat has fallen close to 5% this week on the prospect of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, while corn and sugar have also suffered substantial losses. The grain correction follows several weeks of speculative long liquidation, initially triggered by increasingly bearish supply estimates, including the latest USDA report pointing to higher US corn production and inventories.</p> <p>Managed money had accumulated more than one million net long grain contracts last month, leaving the sector particularly exposed when bullish expectations began to fade.</p> <p>Sugar has experienced a similar positioning challenge, with speculative net longs recently reaching a five-year high. Such elevated exposure can amplify downside movements when prices fail to respond to supportive narratives.</p> <p>Looking ahead, weather developments, including the potential impact of a Super El Niño on global agricultural production, remain important. However, near-term price behaviour may continue to be dominated by the reduction of speculative exposure before fundamentals regain control.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Outlook: When does liquidation give way to fundamentals?</h3> <p>The coming weeks will test whether the recent correction primarily reflects the removal of excessive speculative positioning or the beginning of a more sustained deterioration in global demand.</p> <p>The distinction matters. A positioning-driven selloff can create opportunities once liquidation subsides, particularly in markets where underlying supply remains constrained. A fundamentally driven downturn, by contrast, would require a more cautious assessment of demand prospects.</p> <p>For now, energy remains supported by immediate supply risks, precious metals are searching for stability following technical breakdowns, and industrial commodities face sharply different challenges. Copper's outlook hinges increasingly on US tariff policy and inventory flows, while iron ore continues to reflect China's structural slowdown.</p> <p><strong>The central message is that the unwinding of crowded trades has weakened commodity prices across several sectors, but it has not removed the underlying supply risks.</strong> Whether those risks reassert themselves will depend on how quickly speculative selling subsides and whether global growth concerns deepen.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>22 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-caught-between-ai-jitters-and-escalating-energy-risks-22102026" data-id="EDA07D3D4C1A407BBA0AC51BF5DF7844" data-type="Article">Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks</a><br /> 19 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-13-october-2026-19102026" data-id="C8D7FD8CD8AB4D1382D350D9B8E55D37" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026</a><br /> 16 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-gold-steadies-as-oil-tightness-and-growth-fears-divide-markets-16102026" data-id="7F6FE49A8C92482F93700E2D53DBD7CC" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets</a><br /> 15 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-when-falling-yields-stop-helping-stocks-15102026" data-id="AE423B21F92F4D13BC37638594FC5815" data-type="Article">Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks</a><br /> 14 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/recovering-middle-east-exports-fail-to-ease-crude-and-diesel-tightness-14102026" data-id="3AFE3972FD9549988A2EBBF24E35C4E5" data-type="Article">Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness</a><br /> 12 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/diesel-shortages-why-the-global-economy-has-more-to-fear-than-rising-petrol-prices-12102026" data-id="29C3D97E260D43EB8BFE0F88A1EF40FA" data-type="Article">Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Copper</span> <span>Mining</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Soybean</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Satellites, sovereignty and stocks: who stands to gain from Europe's space ambitions?</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li ><strong>Europe's satellite ambitions create opportunities</strong> for operators and manufacturers, but political support does not guarantee profits.</li> <li ><strong>Eutelsat, SES and European telecom groups have different exposures</strong>, from owning satellites to selling connectivity.</li> <li ><strong>US companies face potential restrictions</strong>, while European businesses must manage costs, competition and possible retaliation.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Europe wants greater control over the satellites connecting its citizens, businesses and armed forces. Washington is not particularly pleased.</p> <p>In October 2026, <a href="https://ground.news/article/us-warns-eu-of-devastating-retaliation-over-satellite-spectrum-plan_6116b7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the United States warned of potentially severe retaliation</a> if Brussels proceeds with plans to reserve valuable satellite frequencies for European operators. Companies including SpaceX, which operates Starlink, could face restrictions.</p> <p>The dispute comes as Europe increases investment in satellite communications, driven by defence needs, digital independence and growing demand for broadband.</p> <p>For investors, this creates an interesting question: which companies stand to benefit from Europe's ambitions, which could lose ground, and who will ultimately pay the bill?</p> <p>The answer extends far beyond Starlink.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The most valuable space may be invisible</strong></h3> <p>The dispute centres on radio spectrum, the invisible frequencies that allow satellites to communicate with devices on Earth. Think of spectrum as lanes on a motorway. Companies need permission to use them, and access becomes more valuable as demand grows.</p> <p>The European Commission proposes reserving two-thirds of a key frequency band for European operators and government services, leaving one-third open to international competition.</p> <p>Current licences held by American companies <strong>Viasat and EchoStar</strong> expire in May 2027, making them directly exposed to the proposed changes.</p> <p>Crucially, this is not a ban on Starlink's existing broadband network. The contested frequencies are particularly useful for connecting ordinary smartphones directly to satellites, without additional equipment.</p> <p><strong>SpaceX</strong>, through Starlink, and <strong>Amazon</strong>, through Amazon Leo, could face tighter competition for spectrum access. But European authorities also risk limiting innovation if restrictions favour local companies over better technology.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Three ways to benefit, three different risks</strong></h3> <p>The most obvious European beneficiary is <strong>Eutelsat</strong>, the French operator behind OneWeb's network of more than 600 low Earth orbit satellites. Its satellite business is growing rapidly. Low Earth orbit revenue rose 69.5% to EUR 297 million in the financial year ending June 2026, reaching one-quarter of group revenue.</p> <p>Yet overall revenue remained broadly flat. The lesson? A promising business can grow quickly without transforming the company's finances overnight.</p> <p>Luxembourg-based <strong>SES</strong> offers another route through satellite services for governments, airlines and telecommunications companies.</p> <p>Both participate in Europe's separate <a href="https://www.euspa.europa.eu/eu-space-programme/secure-satcom/iris2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">IRIS² programme</a>, a planned secure communications network of 348 satellites, with launches starting in 2029.</p> <p>But operating satellite networks is expensive. Growing demand must eventually justify the investment.</p> <p><strong>Airbus, Thales and Leonardo</strong> offer a different exposure. These aerospace and defence groups help manufacture satellites and their components, potentially earning revenue from government contracts without carrying the full costs of operating a network.</p> <p>The distinction matters: building infrastructure can be profitable even when operating it proves difficult.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The unexpected players in the space race</strong></h3> <p>On 19 October, <strong>Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone</strong> announced plans to explore a joint bid for European satellite spectrum. Their approach is interesting: rather than financing satellites themselves, they want to provide ground infrastructure and partner with an existing satellite operator.</p> <p>That could expand coverage without requiring billions in satellite investment. However, the additional revenue may remain modest compared with their traditional telecom businesses.</p> <p>The picture becomes even more interesting with <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>, an American company developing satellite-to-smartphone services. It already works with Vodafone and Orange, demonstrating that European operators can pursue greater independence while partnering with American technology providers.</p> <p>This is not necessarily a contest with one winner. Different companies can benefit from different parts of the same network.</p> <p>And there is a telling irony: Eutelsat's latest European-built satellites are preparing to launch aboard SpaceX rockets. Europe wants independence, but achieving it may still require American help.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>When ambition meets reality</strong></h3> <p>Three risks stand out.</p> <p>First, Washington could turn its warnings into trade measures affecting European businesses beyond satellites.</p> <p>Second, satellite networks require heavy investment. Delays, weak demand or rising costs could undermine returns, even with government support.</p> <p>Third, Europe's competitors already have scale and technology advantages. Protected market access cannot guarantee competitive services or attractive profits.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>An investor's radar</strong></h3> <ul > <li ><strong>Watch regulation:</strong> the 2027 licensing process will clarify which companies gain or lose spectrum access.</li> <li ><strong>Follow government contracts:</strong> new orders could benefit satellite operators and manufacturers differently.</li> <li ><strong>Track cash flow:</strong> for Eutelsat and SES, revenue growth matters only if investment eventually produces sustainable returns.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The real prize is closer to Earth</strong></h3> <p>Europe's satellite ambitions are about more than competing with Starlink. Reliable communications are becoming essential infrastructure, much like electricity or traditional defence equipment.</p> <p>That creates opportunities, but strategic importance and attractive shareholder returns are not the same thing.</p> <p>Eutelsat and SES must turn connectivity into profitable services. Airbus, Thales and Leonardo can benefit from building the infrastructure. Telecom operators offer another route, while American companies remain formidable competitors and partners.</p> <p>For investors, the distinction between these business models matters more than the political headlines.</p> <p>Europe may increasingly control what happens in its skies, but the real winners will be decided much closer to Earth: by contracts, costs and cash flow.</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Tesla Inc.</span> <span>Meta Platforms Inc.</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Your platform already knows more than it shows you</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 08:24:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">AI assistants now let traders who do not write code use the Saxo OpenAPI by asking plain questions. How the route works, where to stay careful, and a live build on 4 November.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>AI assistants have made a broker’s data connection usable for anyone who can ask a clear question.</em></p> <p>Every morning before the open, many active traders and investors go through the same routine. They open the platform, check how their positions moved overnight, look at what is getting close to a stop or a target, and decide what needs attention. It works, but it takes time and relies on you spotting everything yourself.</p> <p>Most of that information is already available in a structured form. Saxo’s OpenAPI is the same kind of connection Saxo’s own platforms are built on, used to fetch prices, positions, orders and account data. What has changed recently is who can use it.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>A third way in</strong></h2> <p>Until recently there were two ways to use an API like this. You could read the documentation and work out the requests yourself, or you could become a developer and build software around it. Both took time and technical skill most investors would rather spend on markets.</p> <p>AI assistants add a third route. You describe what you want in plain language, for example "which of my positions moved more than usual yesterday, and which are close to the levels I set?" The assistant then writes the code that asks the API for it. You read the result, check it against your platform, and change the question if it isn’t quite right. Going from an idea to a working tool can now take an afternoon rather than weeks.</p> <p><em>The third route: you ask, the AI writes the code, the API supplies the data, and every decision stays with you.</em></p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What it looks like in practice</strong></h2> <p>The useful applications are modest. One is a morning overview of your portfolio that flags what needs a decision. Another is a screen that uses your own criteria instead of a generic preset. The chart below is one example, built for options traders: it places each name by how expensive its options are compared with the past year and by its recent momentum, and each area of the grid is labelled with a type of strategy a trader might want to study further. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position. The same approach works for whatever you care about, whether that is valuation, momentum or dividends. These tools sit next to the platform and do the reading for you, so your attention goes to the decisions.</p> <p><em>An example for options traders: IV rank against RSI. The tickers, their positions and the strategy labels are hypothetical and for education only, not advice or a trade recommendation. Selling options can lead to losses well beyond the premium received.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where to stay careful</strong></h2> <p>AI makes mistakes, and an API only accepts requests in exactly the right form. Assistants sometimes invent field names or misread what a value means, so check every tool against what your platform shows before you rely on it. A sensible way to start is to keep things read-only: the tool gathers and summarises, and placing orders stays with you. Saxo’s developer portal offers test access to a simulation environment, the right place to experiment before anything touches a live account.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>See it built live</strong></h2> <p>On 4 November at 13:00 CET I’ll host the webinar "Using AI and OpenAPI to elevate your Saxo platform experience". During the session I’ll build a small working tool on the Saxo OpenAPI from scratch, live, in about fifteen minutes, using plain-language instructions. You’ll see the whole process, including the parts that go wrong. <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/events-and-webinars" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Register for the webinar here</a><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/events-and-webinars" target="_blank">.</a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span> <span>OpenAPI</span> <span>API</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Can the real JPY please stand up?</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 08:23:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The JPY is showing signs of stirring again.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>The latest </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>A different kind of day for global markets yesterday<br /> </span></strong><span >The oil price surge since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict earlier this year has generally been associated with rising global bond yields. The US dollar has loosely tracked that rise in global yields since March, and yields have risen more consistently than oil prices have over the last seven-plus months. But since the beginning of this month, the extension higher in oil prices has failed to drive global bond yields higher. Likewise, the US dollar switched into consolidation mode as yields rolled over, posting a brief peak on the hot US September CPI release last week before a sharp reversal that led to our call for a possible trend reversal. We need a bit more evidence that the US dollar is turning, but that remains our base case as long as we have a cap on US treasury yields. Technically, the USD move looks stretched short-term outside of USDJPY. For the next week to two weeks, the JPY is our chief focus for volatility potential far more than the US dollar.</span></p> <p><span>Yesterday was especially interesting as US treasury yields saw their steepest plunge in months even as oil prices posted a new cycle high. Clearly the inflationary concerns from higher oil prices are being weighed against the risk that the supply-side shock of the higher energy input costs into the economy might trigger a recession. The focus yesterday for treasuries was clearly more on safe haven seeking as the US equity market suffered an ugly sell-off. Specific AI sector concerns may be far more important at the moment for equities than oil prices, but either way, the treasury market is the most important intermarket focus for the US dollar here. That being said, a US AI- and tech stock meltdown may be a US dollar risk if global investors who have poured into these stocks don’t rotate into US treasuries in further safe-haven seeking.</span></p> <p><span>For the FX Trader, the most interesting developments have been in CHF and JPY, as the plunging yields yesterday sparked an extension of the CHF strength and saw the JPY finally responding more forcefully to what I have posited should be the most supportive combination: lower yields and weak global risk sentiment. The final ingredient that would add even more support for JPY would likely be lower oil prices.</span></p> <p><strong><em><span>Takeaway</span></em></strong><strong><em><span>: </span></em></strong><em><span>The US dollar is caught here in the crossfire of its safe haven status (USD positive) versus factors that have been thrown into reverse that were formerly supporting the USD rally (higher treasury yields, which now have just fallen steeply). This could eventually lead to a weaker US dollar if yields continue to retreat, but the USD versus risky currency equation could be choppy going if risk sentiment remains weak. Elsewhere, the potential is far greater for something interesting to develop based on the shift in global bond sentiment in the JPY and perhaps in USDJPY – see chart below.</span></em><strong><em><span> </span></em></strong></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: USDJPY<br /> </strong><span >Even as one of the key trend indicators failed recently for the Ichimoku technical overview for USDJPY, the lagging span (green line) crossing back above the price bars, the other key resistance levels have held, including the 200-day moving average in the 158.50 area and the Ichimoku cloud top near the same area. The big bounce overnight is uncomfortable for bears here, but next week is the critical time frame, given the technical setup here (test of resistance, which survived, while downside potential has yet to prove itself) and the FOMC and BoJ meetings are incoming. To the downside, the cloud level becomes “easier” to break in coming days as its lower bound rises slightly, while the lagging span will dip back through the price bars even if USDJPY stays near current levels. To get some downside momentum going, a breakdown through the 155.25-155.00 area is a next step. And the direction in bond yields may have far more to say than chart dynamics here for whether the downside materializes at all. </span><span ></span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Looking ahead<br /> </span></strong><span >Next week we have no fewer than five central bank meetings: FOMC, BoC, ECB, BoJ and RBNZ. And for sterling we have the autumn budget statement on Wednesday after the brutal run lower in EURGBP – is that move getting overdone in the near term?</span></p> <p><strong>FOMC (Wednesday)</strong>. The FOMC meeting is now seen very unlikely to bring a rate hike, while the market will desperately sift through the Warsh rhetoric and the statement for clues on the thinking for December, which is now only priced at 90% likely for a hike (+22.5 bps versus a high of +38 bps for the Oct & Dec meetings combined in late September). This meeting may rate low on market reaction potential.</p> <p><strong><span>Bank of Canada (Wednesday):</span></strong><span> The market is leaning heavily for a rate hike next week from Macklem and company after the Governor seemed to be guiding for one in comments over this last weekend: “The question we are going to be asking ourselves is, ‘Is inflation likely to come back down towards our target on its own, or are we going to have to raise interest rates to influence the path, nudge the path for inflation back towards the target?’” He also noted the risk of persistent inflation from higher oil prices. But with the CAD outperformance already in the price, not sure how much follow-on potential there might be now that the hike is mostly priced and another hike is fully in the price through the Jan 27 meeting.</span></p> <p><strong><span>ECB (Thursday)</span></strong><span>: Some ECB members have been back-pedaling from former hawkishness as the vicious rise in energy prices – remember natural gas – have clouded the economic outlook. Some usual hawkish stuff from Germany’s Schnabel, but Olli Rehn has said no second round effects in evidence and President Lagarde has stated that higher yields are already doing some of the ECB’s tightening job. The key for the euro is the sovereign yield spread situation more than the ECB here. Market not pricing anything for this meeting and looking for a December hike instead, though now with less conviction – so there is some potential for surprisingly dovish (more likely?) or hawkish guidance to move the euro in either direction. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Bank of Japan (Friday):</span></strong><span> With the retreat in global bond yields and the rise in the JPY, we see the market marking the odds of a BoJ rate hike lower – that is logical. The market is not looking for a hike at next Friday’s meeting, where I suspect intermarket forces (the combination of where US Treasury yields, risk sentiment and oil prices are) will weigh far more heavily than BoJ guidance. That guidance in turn will have a lot to do with where the JPY is as well – so look for hawkish guidance if the JPY is back lower and less hawkish guidance if the JPY is pulling to new local highs. December is still priced at better than even odds for a hike.</span></p> <p><strong><span>RBNZ</span></strong><span>: The market leaning heavily in favour of a hike after the hawkish shift in September, but watch guidance. Clear line in the sand on AUDNZD just under 1.2300 now.</span></p> <p><span><strong><span>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </span></strong></span><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong><span>see a video tutorial</span></strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p><span>Leading the G10 FX pack now we have the NOK, which has ground stronger versus the single currency all weak as oil and gas prices ratcheted higher – EURNOK hit lowest level since late 2022. The JPY has flashed a very strong 2-day momentum reading after yesterday’s action – let’s see if it can get a persistent move higher going for the first time in a long time. Elsewhere, the euro continues to suck wind on the sovereign debt yield issue. If French bonds can finally rally, this negative focus might ease for a bit – not sure what fresh information we’ll be getting in the nearest term – and lower yields elsewhere provide some relief at the margin.</span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span >In the new trends department, we have GBPUSD attempting to register an uptrend, but it is precisely mid-range here of the entire 2026 range and if we are lurching into a risk-off environment, do we want to have sterling exposure. Big test for sterling next week is the autumn budget statement on the 28</span><sup>th</sup><span >. Similar comments for USDCAD, which is hitting the key 1.4000 area and the market has already priced next week’s BoC hike. The GBPJPY “uptrend” looks a red herring after yesterday’s action and could be looking at a flip to negative within a day or two if we get follow-on JPY strength. Finally, the AUDNZD uptrend in focus here – with a move through the sub-1.2300 support needed to suggest a downside breakout is developing.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Novartis results: buying lower or selling higher, when the big moves come from elsewhere</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Novartis reports its third-quarter results on 27 October 2026. Results days have been calm; its sharpest fall this year came from trial news. One investor wants to buy lower, another already owns the shares. How can each name a price and be paid to wait?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>An option does not only pay for the results day. It pays for every day until it expires, and the news those days bring.</em></p> <p>Novartis publishes its third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday 27 October 2026, before the Swiss market opens (Source: Novartis investor relations, as of 22 October 2026). The shares closed at CHF 128.88 on 22 October 2026 (Source: Saxo). In July, the company kept its 2026 outlook: sales growing slightly, and core operating income, its main profit measure, slightly lower, as cheaper copies of its heart drug Entresto take US sales (Source: Novartis, second-quarter results, 21 July 2026).</p> <p>Results days have been calm for Novartis. Over the last eight, the shares typically moved about 1.9% on the day, and never more than 4.2%. The sharpest fall in that period came on another day. On 8 September 2026, after its second late-stage trial failure in a week, the shares fell 10.9% (Source: Saxo price data; Novartis, 8 September 2026). Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <p ><em><br /> Novartis, with the 120 and 138 strike prices and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Illustrative and educational, not predictive. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 23 October 2026.</em></p> <p><em>Novartis share price move from the previous close to the close on results day, last eight results, and the 8 September 2026 trial-result day for comparison, against the range priced by the 20 November 2026 options (indicative Saxo quotes after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST). Those options run more than three weeks after the report, so the band is not a one-day estimate. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo price data, Saxo option quotes, author calculation.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the options market expects</strong></h2> <p>Option prices give a rough idea of how far the market thinks a share could move. Add the price of the call and the put with a strike closest to today’s share price. For 20 November, that points to a move of about 6.1% in either direction, or roughly CHF 121 to CHF 137 (at the 128 strike, call CHF 4.60 plus put CHF 3.20 makes about CHF 7.80, on a share price of CHF 128.88. Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST).</p> <p>That is about three times the typical results-day move. The reason is time. The first Novartis options to expire after the report run until 20 November, 24 days later. So the 6.1% covers the report and more than three weeks of other news. After September, investors know that other news can matter more than the report.</p> <p>Option prices on Novartis are also high compared with their own past year (Source: Saxo, as of 22 October 2026). In our view, that may be the September falls still showing in the price. For a seller of options, a higher price means a larger payment for the same promise. It also means the market sees more risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What happens to the option price after the report</strong></h2> <p>Part of an option’s price pays for uncertainty, including the report. Once the numbers are out, that payment usually shrinks, even if the shares hardly move. Traders call this IV crush. With Novartis, the report is one day in a 24-day option, so in our view the drop after 27 October may be modest. A seller should not count on a quick gain. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why the 20 November expiry</strong></h2> <p>The examples use the monthly Novartis options on Eurex, the European options exchange, expiring Friday 20 November 2026. Each contract covers 100 shares and is priced in Swiss francs. Saxo lists no weekly Novartis options before that date, so 20 November is the first expiry after the report. December options pay more but add another month of risk.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>For the investor who wants to buy Novartis lower: a cash-secured put at 120</strong></h2> <p>The idea: Novartis is worth owning, but this investor would rather buy lower than today’s price. The seller of the put agrees to buy 100 shares at CHF 120 if Novartis is below that price on 20 November. In return, the seller receives a payment today, called the premium. "Cash-secured" means the money to buy the shares is set aside.</p> <p><em>Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Sell</strong> 1 Novartis 20 November 2026 120 put at about CHF 0.93 per share (bid 0.76, ask 1.10), with Novartis at CHF 128.88</li> <li><strong>Net credit:</strong> about CHF 93, all from the one put (CHF 0.93 on 100 shares), against CHF 12,000 of cash set aside</li> <li><strong>Break-even at expiry:</strong> CHF 119.07, the strike less the premium, about 7.6% below the price at the time</li> <li><strong>Maximum profit:</strong> CHF 93 (hypothetical), if Novartis is at or above 120 at expiry</li> <li><strong>Maximum risk:</strong> CHF 11,907 (hypothetical), if Novartis fell to zero</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST)</li> </ul> <p>Why 120: it is the first listed strike below the range the market expects for the month. None of the last eight results days would have taken Novartis that low. The 8 September fall would have.</p> <p><strong>Risk:</strong> CHF 93 is the most the seller can earn. If Novartis ends below CHF 119.07, the seller loses money, as a shareholder would. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p><em>The 120 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph, max risk, max profit and break-even. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 23 October 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>For the investor who already holds Novartis: a covered call at 138</strong></h2> <p>The idea: this investor owns Novartis and would be happy to sell at CHF 138, about 7% higher. The seller of the call agrees to sell 100 shares at CHF 138 if Novartis is above that price on 20 November, and receives a premium today. "Covered" means the seller already owns the shares.</p> <p><em>Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Own</strong> 100 Novartis shares; <strong>Sell</strong> 1 Novartis 20 November 2026 138 call at about CHF 0.96 per share (bid 0.78, ask 1.14), with Novartis at CHF 128.88</li> <li><strong>Net credit:</strong> about CHF 96, all from the one call (CHF 0.96 on 100 shares), around 0.7% of the CHF 12,888 share value</li> <li><strong>Break-even at expiry:</strong> CHF 127.92, the share price less the premium</li> <li><strong>Maximum profit:</strong> about CHF 1,008 (hypothetical) on shares and call together, if Novartis is at or above 138 at expiry</li> <li><strong>Maximum risk:</strong> CHF 12,792 (hypothetical), the share value less the premium, if Novartis fell to zero</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices after the market close, as of 22 October 2026, 22:30 CEST)</li> </ul> <p>Why 138: it sits just above the range the market expects for the month. No results day in the last eight came close to a 7% rise. That is what the investor gives up: a rare jump, in exchange for a small, certain payment.</p> <p><strong>Risk:</strong> the investor retains the full downside risk of holding the shares. The premium received provides a partial offset, but it does not protect against a significant decline in the stock price. A repeat of the 10.9% fall on 8 September would cost about CHF 1,400 on 100 shares at today’s price, against CHF 96 received. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <p><em>The 138 call in the SaxoTrader trade ticket. The ticket shows the call on its own, which is why it reports unlimited risk: that applies only to a call sold without the shares. Held against 100 Novartis shares, a rise above 138 is covered by the shares, and the remaining risk is a fall in the share price. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, as of 23 October 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>And if neither view fits</strong></h2> <p>Both examples assume the investor wants to own Novartis. Another investor may think September was not the last bad news. In our view, the put may not suit that investor: CHF 93 is little comfort when buying a share that keeps falling. A holder with that view may prefer to sell some shares, or buy a put as protection, which costs money instead.</p> <p>A holder who expects the shares to recover what they lost in September gives part of that rise away with the covered call. And doing nothing is always an option.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Before placing the trade, check:</h4> <ul> <li>The gap between the buying and selling price</li> <li>How many contracts are open at that strike, a sign of how easy it is to trade</li> <li>The report timing: 27 October 2026, before the Swiss market opens</li> <li>Commission, charged per contract</li> <li>Whether the cash is really set aside</li> <li>An exit plan, decided before the report</li> </ul> <p><strong>Assignment risk note:</strong> Novartis options can be exercised on any day before expiry. So a seller may have to buy or sell the shares early if the share price passes the strike. Only the seller of an option faces this.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Final thoughts</strong></h2> <p>The two examples are one idea seen from both sides. The put seller names a lower price to buy at, the call seller a higher price to sell at, and both are paid for the uncertainty of the coming weeks, not only the report.</p> <p>That is the point Novartis makes clearly this year. Results days have been calm; the sharp move came from news on an ordinary day. In our view, selling an option on Novartis may suit only an investor comfortable owning the shares after a day like 8 September. Either position can be closed early if the view changes. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. </em><em >The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/coreweave-after-the-bond-scare-what-a-cash-secured-put-pays-for-and-what-it-carries-21102026">CoreWeave after the bond scare what a cash-secured put pays for and what it carries</a> | 21 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/roche-sales-update-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-20102026" data-id="1A48DD78C67449998AD0D84A45EAF8E0" data-type="Article">Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 20 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sap-earnings-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-16102026" data-id="16162248F6D044E4BF8EE478A44D44A5" data-type="Article">SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 16 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/tlt-naming-your-price-on-long-term-bonds--and-being-paid-to-wait-29092026" data-id="CED687D86F2F4FFDBDE686E04602D2A0" data-type="Article">TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait</a> | 29 Sep 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/amd-after-a-ten-percent-day-taking-something-off-the-table-without-selling-the-shares-22092026" data-id="ACEB34AA10D24B4EA96F8709F6FE12A3" data-type="Article"></a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/finding-unusually-expensive-or-cheap-options-in-the-saxo-screener-18092026" data-id="B1C6A219A03F4ABCB94EDE297B17D955" data-type="Article">Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener</a> | 18 Sep 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026" data-id="6FF097126E5C41E3B0940DFBEBC1E335" data-type="Article">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article">Trading earnings with defined</a> | 31 Mar 2026<br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-end-reprices-long-end-holds---options-brief---15-october-2026-15102026" data-id="F990962B7E4B44088D5A8B26B88A711D" data-type="Article">Front end reprices long end holds - 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Crypto and blockchain</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Chipmakers tumble and the ten-year drops below 5% - 23 October 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: US Treasuries rally, US jobless claims fell and Japanese inflation picked up</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong><strong>:</strong> US equities fell sharply as concerns over AI spending and rising oil prices weighed on technology stocks and global sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Index gauges jumped right across the curve with the one-day measure rising by a third</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Tokens firmed overnight while the listed crypto shares and the miners were sold heavily</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil climbs on Middle East tensions as gold and copper extend losses</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Huge US treasury rally on risk sentiment shift.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: JPY, CHF and NOK advance, USD sideways</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries staged their strongest rally in more than two years</strong> as an AI-led equity selloff, French market turmoil and renewed Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand. Short-term yields fell as much as 20 basis points, while the 10-year yield recorded its biggest daily decline since August 2024, dropping below 5% for the first time in a month. Growing doubts about the sustainability and returns of AI investment accelerated the rotation from equities into bonds.</li> <li><strong>US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000</strong> in the week to 17 October, below expectations and the lowest since mid-July, which has been cited as evidence of labour market resilience. Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to <strong>1.728 million</strong> in the week to 10 October.</li> <li><strong>Japan's annual inflation rose to 2.1% in September</strong> from 1.9%, the highest since December 2025, with core inflation excluding fresh food also at 2.1%, just above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Monthly consumer prices were flat.</li> <li><strong>Australia's services PMI fell to 47.8 in October</strong> from 51.9, moving into contraction. New business growth slowed, with weaker demand, higher borrowing costs and inflation cited, while employment and both input and output prices rose.</li> <li>Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and the possibility of renewed US strikes on Iran have been cited as raising Middle East supply risk, although Persian Gulf crude exports remain near prewar levels. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian refineries, against a reported US to Russia diesel supply arrangement.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Sept Retail Sales</li> <li>S&P Global Preliminary PMIs: France (0715), Germany (0730), Eurozone (0800), and the UK (0830)</li> <li>0800 – ECB CPI Expectations</li> <li>1345 – US Oct PMI (Preliminary)</li> <li>1400 – University of Michigan Sentiment for October</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>T</strong><strong>o</strong><strong>day</strong>: American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB</li> </ul> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Monday</strong>: Verizon, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Visa, Coca Cola, HSBC, Novartis, Boeing, Seagate Technology, S&P Global, Corning, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport McMoRan, Robinhood, UPS</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Alphabet, Microsoft, SK Hynix, GE Vernova, KLA Corp, Amphenol, Airbus, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, Advantest, UBS, Fortinet, Automatic Data Processing, FedEx</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA: </strong>The S&P 500 fell 1.2% on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.9%, and the Dow was broadly unchanged as rising oil prices and renewed concerns over artificial intelligence investments weighed on technology stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.7%, while Meta fell 7.0% despite stronger-than-expected revenue, as investors questioned its $135–145 billion annual capital spending plans and decision to introduce non-voting shares to help finance its AI expansion. Tesla declined 3.1% despite cutting its 2026 spending plans, as investors assessed its profitability and future AI investments, with attention increasingly turning to whether massive technology spending can deliver sustainable returns.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1% on Thursday, Germany's DAX lost 1.1%, and the UK's FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% as rising oil prices, French political uncertainty and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. Banks led the decline, with Barclays down 2.3% after weaker-than-expected quarterly profit, while luxury group Hermès dropped almost 5% as sales disappointed. ASML lost 5% amid the global semiconductor selloff, but London Stock Exchange Group gained 7.7% after raising its revenue outlook, highlighting how company-specific news still created winners in difficult markets. Attention now turns to upcoming earnings for further clues about demand and profit margins.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities also retreated on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.6%, while South Korea's Kospi rebounded sharply from an early decline of nearly 4% to trade broadly flat. SK Hynix surged 3.8%, reversing earlier losses despite broader concerns over AI spending and semiconductor demand. In Japan, defensive stocks such as Kao and Secom outperformed as investors sought more stable businesses. Meanwhile, Australia's Zip plunged after disclosing a fraud incident in its US operations Taiwan's market remained closed because of a typhoon, while investors looked ahead to further technology earnings for signs of resilience.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 19.03 | VIX FUTURES: 19.410 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.39) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Volatility rose broadly alongside the risk-off move. <strong>VIX rose 14.09% to 19.03</strong>, VIX9D 21.76% to 18.86 and <strong>VIX1D 33.39% to 15.18</strong>. VVIX added 14.16% to 107.94, SKEW 1.35%. <strong>MOVE jumped 11.36% to 106.85</strong>, with VXN up 17.61% and GVZ 13.06%.</li> <li>The cash curve held contango from VIX1D to <strong>VIX1Y at 22.62</strong>, VIX3M at 20.12, though the front future at <strong>19.410</strong> sits above the second at 19.270. <strong>SPX options imply 55.45 points, or 0.723%, for today's expiry</strong> and 145.40 points, or 1.895%, into Friday 30 October, covering next week's Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li>The futures curve carries a kink at the front: November trades near 19.4, above December near 19.2, as the 28 October FOMC, megacap earnings and the 3 November midterms all fall inside the November window. S&P 500 realised volatility runs near 16.6 on a 20-day basis, leaving implied volatility only about 2.4 points above realised. Brent near $112 keeps an energy risk in the mix.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~81,871 +0.64% | ETHEREUM ~2,410 +0.95% | IBIT 46.06 -3.72% | ETHA 53.88 -4.52% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Tokens edged higher overnight while the listed crypto complex was sold hard through the US session. <strong>Miners led the decline</strong>, CIFR off 8.87%, IREN 8.37% and RIOT 8.06%, with CleanSpark and MARA both near 7% lower. <strong>Strategy fell 5.00%</strong> and Coinbase 4.51%, while Circle lost 3.44%.</li> <li><strong>US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of USD 635m on 22 October</strong>, the largest single source being BlackRock's IBIT at USD 254m. <strong>Ether ETFs have shed about USD 1.08bn across October</strong>, reported as their largest monthly outflow of 2026.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent trades above USD 114 and is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain as intensifying attacks on Saudi Arabia raise the risk of wider Middle East supply disruptions. Iran-backed Houthi militants have claimed responsibility for recent attacks on the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, as well as deadly strikes on an oil field and airport in the kingdom. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported this week that the US and Israel have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections early next month. WTI trades firmer at USD 100.50, leaving the Brent premium near USD 13.60.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Spot gold dipped below USD 4,000 during the Asian session as momentum-driven and technical selling accelerated following Thursday's break below support around USD 4,060, triggering further long liquidation. For now, the inflationary impact of rising energy prices continues to outweigh support from safe-haven demand and the short-covering-driven rally in bonds. Silver has fallen to an 11-month low near USD 54, while the gold-silver ratio has climbed to an 11-month high above 74, highlighting silver's relative weakness.</li> <li><strong>Copper:</strong> HG copper trades near USD 6.46 per pound after breaking below support around USD 6.52 on Thursday and is heading for its third weekly decline in four weeks. The AI-led equity selloff has weighed on short-term risk appetite, partly reflecting concerns that a slowdown in data centre investment could weaken future copper demand. Additional uncertainty surrounds whether Washington will refrain from imposing tariffs on refined copper imports. Such a decision could potentially release some of the substantial copper inventories accumulated in the US back into the global market, easing to supply tightness elsewhere.</li> <li><strong>The BCOM Total Return Index </strong>is heading for a modest weekly loss but remains up more than 34% year-to-date. The energy sector is once again doing the heavy lifting, led by gasoil and Brent, while all other sectors are trading lower. Losses are led by precious metals, with silver down 5.5%, and grains, where wheat has slumped 5%. Meanwhile, performance across industrial metals and softs is mixed, with copper and sugar declining while most other commodities have gained, most notably nickel and coffee. </li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasur</strong><strong>ies rallied strongly Thursday as risk sentiment</strong><strong> in the equity market</strong><strong> </strong><strong>cratered</strong><strong>.</strong> The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped nearly 20 basis points at one point to 4.61% before rebounding to the 4.65% area by early Friday, while the benchmark 10-year yield trades early Friday some 16 basis points below its Wednesday close at 4.96%, the first daily close below 5.0% in a month.</li> <li><strong>German</strong><strong>y-France sovereign yield spread</strong><strong>s</strong><strong> widened </strong><strong>again </strong><strong>Thursday</strong>, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle since 2012, up over fifteen basis points to over 174 basis points. The benchmark French 10-year OAT sovereign bond yield rose to new 24-year highs, posting a 5.14% high intraday before rolling back below 5.08%. The Germany-Italy 10-year spread posted its highest daily close since early 2025, rising eight basis points to 124 basis points.</li> <li><strong>US High Yield </strong><strong>bond</strong><strong> yield</strong><strong>s </strong><strong>failed to rally together with US treasur</strong><strong>ies</strong>, sending the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries sharply higher, up 11 basis points and to thie highest level since April 2025. </li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>traded mostly sideways </strong><strong>as its traditional safe haven role conflicted with </strong><strong>recent drivers of its strength</strong>, like the<strong> </strong>higher oil prices that formerly helped to drive US treasury yields higher. <strong>EURUSD</strong> remains frozen in its tracks just above 1.1200, while <strong>AUDUSD</strong> dipped back closer to 0.7000, still trading just above that level early Friday. </li> <li><strong>The strongest currencies Thursday were NOK, CHF and JPY</strong>. NOK continued its persistent rally as <strong>EURNOK</strong> dipped below 10.50 Thursday for the first time since late 2022, while CHF and JPY jolted stronger on the combination of weak risk sentiment and lower global bond yields. <strong>EURCHF</strong> dropped below its 200-day moving average near 0.9240 that had supported the price action earlier this week, trading below 0.9200 at one point before finding support. <strong>USDJPY</strong> traded as low as 156.08 early Friday after a steep sell-off Thursday from above 158.00, though it bounced to the 156.90 area by early Friday, while <strong>EURJPY</strong> dipped as low as 175.20 before rebounding to 175.90.</li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 23 October, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 23 October, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>US initial jobless claims fall. Japan's CPI rises. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Nasdaq down 2.6% as chipmakers fall. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Yen strengthens on safe-haven demand with USDJPY near 156 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Silver posted its lowest close in almost a year falling below $55 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >Treasuries’ best day in 2+ years; 10Y yield below 5% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ended October 17, below expectations and the lowest since mid-July, signalling labour market resilience.</span></strong><span> Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million in the week ended October 10.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong ><span>Japan’s annual inflation rose to 2.1% in September 2026 from 1.9%</span></strong><span >, the highest since December 2025. <strong>Core inflation (excluding fresh food) also hit 2.1%</strong>, just above the BoJ’s 2% target, while monthly consumer prices were flat.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Australia’s services PMI fell to 47.8 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September</span></strong><span >, signaling contraction. New business growth slowed on weaker demand, higher borrowing costs, and inflation, while employment and both input and output prices rose; sentiment stayed positive.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and possible renewed US strikes</span></strong><span > on Iran have raised Middle East supply risks, though Persian Gulf crude exports remain near prewar levels. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian refineries amid a US–Russia diesel supply deal.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> Wall Street sold off sharply on Thursday as a tech rout and surging oil prices drove investors into bonds. <strong>S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%, its worst session since June, as chipmakers plunged nearly 7% (SOX index -6%+). </strong>The Dow Jones was broadly flat. <strong>Meta fell 7% despite a Q3 beat, as its massive $825b AI capex plans alarmed investors as its credit default swaps touched a new high.</strong> Tesla dropped ~2% after cutting spending plans. Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet fell 3–4%. After hours, Newmont rose ~1.6% on a Q3 earnings beat, while Comfort Systems fell ~5.6% on a gross profit miss and CFO departure. SpaceX is reportedly in talks to secure 80,000 US cell sites, pressuring telecom stocks in after-hours trade.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities declined on Thursday, tracking the global risk-off mood. The Stoxx 600 fell 1.0%, its worst session since Oct. 1. The DAX dropped 1.1%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,725, and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%. Key movers: ASML fell 5.0% (largest drag on Stoxx 600), Siemens Energy dropped 8.6%, Nokia fell 9.7%, and AT&S plunged 18.6%. Mining stocks led sector losses, with Boliden -5.2% and Anglo American -5.0%. Hermès slumped after Asia-Pacific sales disappointed. Moncler rose ~2.8% on a Q3 revenue beat. The CAC 40 has fallen more than 3% over the past month amid French political turmoil.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian equities extended losses on Friday morning, tracking Thursday's Wall Street selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped ~0.3%, hovering near levels last seen in July. </span><strong >The Kospi fell sharply, down ~3.6%, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both dropping more than 2% a</strong><span >s chip sentiment deteriorated. The Nikkei 225 declined ~0.6% in early trade, with the Topix off ~0.8%, though defensive names Kao (+3%), Secom (+2.7%), and Sekisui House (+2.6%) bucked the trend. The Hang Seng was under pressure as the CSI 300 entered a bear market on Thursday, having lost $2.4 trillion since its May peak. Taiwan's stock exchange was closed Friday due to a typhoon. The STI was broadly flat. Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.4%, with Zip plunging ~50% after disclosing a $7.2 million US fraud event. Asian investment-grade dollar bond spreads widened to their highest since July 2025.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Friday: </strong>American Express, Schlumberger </li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>USDJPY </strong>fell to ~156.25, down ~0.33% on the day, with the yen hovering near its strongest level in almost a month after surging Thursday as global equities sold off. Traders are eyeing a move toward the 155 handle as macro risk-off flows continue.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EURUSD </strong><span >traded at ~1.1223, up modestly (+0.06%), but the euro remains under pressure from deepening French fiscal stress, with the OAT-Bund spread at multi-year wides and equity ETF outflows accelerating.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span > </span>The <strong >Singapore dollar</strong><span > is gaining traction as a carry trade funding currency, with the MAS having kept policy settings unchanged in a surprise move, reinforcing limited appreciation expectations.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD </strong><span >fell to ~0.7013, down ~0.10%, as the global risk-off environment and weaker commodity sentiment weighed on the currency.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USDCAD </strong><span >has been on a six-session losing streak, down ~1.6% over that run — the largest such decline since late January.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Commodities:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> settled near $113/bbl on Thursday, up 4% on the day and its highest close since early May, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and Dammam airport stoked supply disruption fears. <strong>WTI </strong>closed above $99/bbl. Brent is on course for a third consecutive weekly gain, up ~3% this week. Sky-high tanker rates are reportedly cutting US crude exports to Asia by ~50% for November delivery.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold spot</strong><span > closed 2.8% lower at ~$4,025/oz and edged lower to ~$4,017/oz on Friday, as elevated bond yields and a stronger dollar partially offset safe-haven inflows. Gold has slumped more than 20% since an earlier peak, per Newmont's earnings commentary.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Silver fell 5.8% </strong><span >and closed at its lowest level in almost a year on Thursday, pressured by the broader risk-off move and declining industrial demand sentiment tied to AI spending concerns and slowing global growth fears.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong ><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Treasuries </strong>surged in their strongest rally since at least 2024, driven by a confluence of AI stock jitters, French bond stress, and Middle East tensions. The 10-year yield fell ~15–17bps to close at ~4.96%, breaking back below 5% for the first time in about a month. The 2-year fell ~15bps to ~4.66%, and the 30-year dropped ~10–13bps to ~5.29%. The 5s30s spread steepened to ~51bps from ~46bps. Yields are continuing to drift lower in early Asian trade on Friday.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >French 10-year yields</strong><span > hit 5%, with the OAT-Bund spread widening to ~177bps, a multi-year high, as political turmoil deepened following cost-of-living riots and fiscal concerns. </span><strong >German Bunds</strong><span > also rallied, with 10-year yields falling ~7bps to ~3.35%, as haven demand spilled over from Treasuries.</span><span ></span></li> <li>A $26 billion 5-year TIPS auction drew the highest yield since October 2023 at 2.367%, though the broad Treasury rally into the bidding deadline trimmed yields. Breakeven inflation rates fell as investors shifted focus to growth risks over inflation, and December Fed funds contracts ceased to fully price in another rate hike for 2026.<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The markdown was all in the wings - Options Brief - 22 October 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Crash protection got ten points cheaper on Wednesday while the price of the next two sessions barely moved. Yesterday’s flow, where it had a readable side, was still buying downside.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The cheapest thing in the option market on Wednesday was protection against a crash.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 16.68 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.36) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.700</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Today in brief</h4> <p><strong>The short version.</strong> Friday’s at-the-money price on the S&P 500 came off by close to what one fewer session alone would take, so in our view implied volatility at the money barely moved. What did move sat away from the money: CBOE SKEW down <strong>10.04</strong> points to <strong>150.36</strong>, the tail-risk index down <strong>11.50%</strong> and the bond gauge down <strong>5.66%</strong> to <strong>95.95</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Markets.</strong> The S&P 500 rose <strong>0.58%</strong> to <strong>7,757.17</strong> on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 <strong>1.13%</strong> on results. After the close Meta gained <strong>2.2%</strong> and Tesla slipped <strong>3.3%</strong> despite beating on profit. Asia then reversed it: the Kospi fell more than <strong>3%</strong>, the Nikkei around <strong>2%</strong> and the Hang Seng <strong>2.7%</strong>, with SK Hynix off nearly <strong>6%</strong>. Brent sits above <strong>111</strong> after a drone strike on a Saudi oil field.</p> <p><strong>Volatility curve.</strong> The cash curve fell in the middle and held at both ends. VIX9D lost <strong>4.79%</strong> to <strong>15.49</strong> and the thirty-day <strong>3.64%</strong> to <strong>16.68</strong>, while the one-day gauge rose <strong>1.61%</strong> to <strong>11.38</strong> and the one-year was unchanged at <strong>22.03</strong>. The VIX future series rolled on Wednesday, so the front is November at <strong>18.700</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Single names.</strong> On an identical <strong>187</strong> US underlyings the median implied-volatility rank fell to <strong>42.8</strong> from <strong>46.1</strong>, and on the common set of <strong>337</strong> euro-zone names to <strong>45.9</strong> from <strong>49.0</strong>. The typical single name stepped back from its own year by about three points of rank, on both sides of the Atlantic.</p> <p><strong>Flow.</strong> Yesterday’s ten reports gave no readable direction, with the largest lines rolls and mid-market prints. Where a side was marked it was downside being bought, in financials, consumer staples and energy, which runs the other way from the markdown.</p> <p><strong>This week’s range.</strong> Three sessions in, the S&P 500 has used <strong>82%</strong> of the <strong>1.56%</strong> priced for the week and the bitcoin fund <strong>96%</strong>, both upward, against energy at <strong>4%</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Earnings and catalysts.</strong> Novartis is priced at <strong>1.5x</strong> its own eight-report history into Tuesday and Apple at <strong>0.4x</strong> into 29 October. Today brings US weekly jobless claims at <strong>14:30 CET</strong> and ten sets of results, including Valero at the top of the US rank board.</p> <p><strong>What it adds up to.</strong> Today’s expiry prices <strong>0.535%</strong> and Friday’s <strong>0.768%</strong>, against <strong>73.80</strong> points quoted for that same Friday a session ago when decay alone would have left about <strong>60.3</strong>. In our view the option market cut the price of protection it is not using and left the next two sessions alone.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>The S&P 500 rose <strong>0.58%</strong> to <strong>7,757.17</strong> on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 added <strong>1.13%</strong>, as results rather than macro drove the session’s news. SpaceX jumped <strong>7.8%</strong> after its first profit as a public company and Super Micro Computer <strong>9.6%</strong> on stronger guidance. After the close Meta gained <strong>2.2%</strong> on strong results, a larger artificial-intelligence investment plan and a proposed two-for-one split of its non-voting shares. Tesla slipped <strong>3.3%</strong> despite beating on profit, its reduced capital-spending plans disappointing.</p> <p>Asia then reversed the lot. By the European morning the Kospi was down more than <strong>3%</strong>, the Nikkei 225 around <strong>2%</strong> and the Hang Seng <strong>2.7%</strong>, with Samsung Electronics off more than <strong>4%</strong>, SK Hynix nearly <strong>6%</strong>, SoftBank <strong>5.6%</strong> and Tokyo Electron <strong>5.9%</strong>. The question being asked is whether spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure converts into profit. The Bank of Korea left rates at <strong>3%</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Wednesday 21 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,757.17</strong>, up <strong>0.58%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,822.52</strong>, up <strong>1.13%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,861.30</strong>, up <strong>0.69%</strong>. Technology led at <strong>1.67%</strong> and semiconductors gained <strong>1.89%</strong>, while communication services fell <strong>1.11%</strong> and the equal-weighted S&P managed <strong>0.34%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.92%</strong> to <strong>644.50</strong> and the Euro Stoxx 50 <strong>1.40%</strong>, with the DAX up <strong>1.35%</strong> and the CAC 40 <strong>1.06%</strong>. Randstad gained <strong>20.2%</strong> and EssilorLuxottica <strong>15.5%</strong> on results, Carrefour fell <strong>13.8%</strong>, and the French ten-year closed at <strong>5.013%</strong>, its first close above <strong>5%</strong> in more than twenty-four years, taking the German to French spread to its widest since 2012.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Thursday morning):</strong> the Hang Seng was down <strong>2.87%</strong> at <strong>22,971.93</strong>, its Tech index <strong>4.64%</strong>, the Kospi <strong>2.85%</strong> and the CSI 300 <strong>1.26%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent traded at <strong>110.52</strong> and WTI at <strong>98.52</strong> at the 06:00 CET pull, up <strong>1.56%</strong> and <strong>1.41%</strong>, and Brent pushed above <strong>111</strong> later in the morning after a drone strike on a Saudi oil field. Gold eased <strong>0.99%</strong> to <strong>4,109.10</strong> and silver <strong>2.21%</strong> to <strong>56.44</strong>. The US ten-year yield was <strong>5.086%</strong>, the thirty-year <strong>5.380%</strong> and the two-year <strong>4.780%</strong>. Bitcoin slipped <strong>2.02%</strong> to <strong>82,905</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> low volatility bull, the VIX at <strong>16.68</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>150.36</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 22 October 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The two largest moves of the session were both measures of the tail. CBOE SKEW fell <strong>10.04</strong> points to <strong>150.36</strong> and the tail-risk index <strong>11.50%</strong> to <strong>15.33</strong>, with VVIX off <strong>2.68%</strong>. The cash curve came down in the middle and held at the ends: VIX9D lost <strong>4.79%</strong> to <strong>15.49</strong> and the thirty-day <strong>3.64%</strong> to <strong>16.68</strong>, while VIX1D rose <strong>1.61%</strong> to <strong>11.38</strong> and the one-year held at <strong>22.03</strong>, near the top of its sixty-session range.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.68</strong> against <strong>0.65</strong>, so the day is priced richer relative to the month than it was. VIX3M/VIX rose to <strong>1.12</strong> from <strong>1.10</strong> as the front fell away from the back. VXN/VIX held at <strong>1.46</strong>, the Nasdaq gauge at <strong>24.42</strong>.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> The series rolled during Wednesday’s session, so the front is November at <strong>18.700</strong> and the second December at <strong>18.830</strong>, a ratio of <strong>0.995</strong>. Against the same November contract at <strong>18.650</strong> a session ago the front barely moved while spot fell <strong>0.63</strong>, widening the premium to spot to <strong>2.02</strong> points from <strong>1.34</strong>. That window carries the 28 October Federal Reserve decision.</p> <p><strong>Rates and correlation.</strong> The bond gauge fell <strong>5.66%</strong> to <strong>95.95</strong> and gold volatility <strong>2.15%</strong> to <strong>21.36</strong>, while oil volatility rose <strong>2.25%</strong> to <strong>53.28</strong>, now <strong>3.20</strong> times the equity gauge against <strong>3.01</strong>. Correlation and dispersion were near unchanged at <strong>12.83</strong> and <strong>37.14</strong>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>On an identical <strong>187</strong> US option underlyings read this morning, the median implied-volatility rank fell to <strong>42.8</strong> from <strong>46.1</strong>, and the share of names above rank <strong>50</strong> dropped to <strong>36.9%</strong> from <strong>42.2%</strong>. The share below rank <strong>20</strong> rose to <strong>16.0%</strong> from <strong>12.3%</strong>. On the common set of <strong>337</strong> euro-zone names, where the universe changed by one name between runs, the median fell to <strong>45.9</strong> from <strong>49.0</strong> and the share above <strong>50</strong> to <strong>42.7%</strong> from <strong>48.4%</strong>.</p> <p>So the index measures above did not move alone. The typical single name also stepped back from its own year, on both sides of the Atlantic, by roughly the same three points of rank.</p> <p>The US median rank is <strong>42.8</strong> while the median percentile is <strong>58.3</strong>, which is not a contradiction. Rank measures where today sits between the year’s highest and lowest readings; percentile measures how many days of the year were lower. A single spike sets the high and pulls every rank down, so a name can sit below the midpoint of its range and above the midpoint of its days at once.</p> <p>A handful of names sit the other way round, with rank well under percentile. The high-yield credit fund reads rank <strong>24</strong> against percentile <strong>76</strong>, the seven-to-ten year Treasury fund <strong>52</strong> against <strong>90</strong> and the biotech fund <strong>39</strong> against <strong>77</strong>. In our view those are the quietly expensive corners: far from this year’s extremes, yet above almost every day of it.</p> <p><em>Source: Saxo.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 21 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> gave no readable direction. Across the ten reports the largest lines are rolls, one order printed many times, and mid-market lines with no side, several carrying a conviction label of two or three out of five, and removing one block changes the headline call-versus-put split in both the energy and the semiconductor sets.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> leans the other way from the markdown. Where a side was marked, it was downside being bought rather than sold: long-dated puts stacked across the financials fund and the money-centre banks together, opening put buying in consumer staples spanning the Federal Reserve meeting, and ask-side put buying in energy. One caveat matters: the pipeline drops closing trades, so this set cannot show hedges being lifted even where they were.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Three sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Wednesday’s close. Straddles are read from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Three sessions in, the S&P 500 has used <strong>82%</strong> of the <strong>119.13</strong> points, <strong>1.56%</strong>, priced around Friday’s close, against three of five sessions gone, all of it upward.</p> <p>The bitcoin fund has used <strong>96%</strong>, closing at <strong>47.84</strong> against an upper bound of <strong>47.91</strong>, so that band may be effectively finished with two sessions left. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>84%</strong>, also upward, and gold <strong>39%</strong> downward. Energy has used <strong>4%</strong>, the quietest row in a week when Brent rose.</p> <p>The volatility row uses the nearest listed expiry, 18 November, so it measures a month and is not comparable with the five above it.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>08:45 CET</strong> France October confidence surveys.</li> <li><strong>13:00 CET</strong> Turkey central bank rate decision.</li> <li><strong>14:30 CET</strong> US weekly initial jobless claims, the only US data point of the session.</li> <li><strong>01:01 CET Friday</strong> UK October GfK consumer confidence, then Japan’s September national CPI at <strong>01:30</strong> and the October flash manufacturing and services PMIs at <strong>02:30</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Procter and Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify and Atlas Copco. Friday brings ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni and SLB.</li> </ul> <p>Two of today’s names sit at the extremes of the volatility board. Valero carries the highest implied-volatility rank of the <strong>187</strong> US underlyings at <strong>98.4</strong>, and Newmont reports into a gold price that eased on Wednesday.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the stock’s average move after its last eight reports, for the twenty-one names tracked this season. Arrows show whether an upcoming expected move rose or eased since the previous day. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The spread between what is priced and what each name has actually done runs from <strong>1.5x</strong> to <strong>0.4x</strong>. Novartis is the richest, at <strong>3.2%</strong> into next Tuesday against an eight-report average of <strong>2.1%</strong>. Apple is the cheapest, at <strong>1.0%</strong> into 29 October against an average of <strong>2.5%</strong>, with Microsoft next at <strong>4.5%</strong> against <strong>7.0%</strong>.</p> <p>Implied-volatility rank and the event premium answer different questions, and this week they disagree. Roche carries a rank of <strong>79</strong> and Nestle <strong>72</strong>, both among the highest on the board, yet their expected moves are <strong>1.6%</strong> and <strong>3.8%</strong>. Novo Nordisk sits at rank <strong>28</strong> with a <strong>5.7%</strong> expected move, above its own <strong>5.0%</strong> average. Rank measures the year; the event premium measures one day.</p> <p>Next up are Novartis on Tuesday, then UBS and Alphabet on Wednesday, Microsoft the same evening, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> SPX options price <strong>41.50</strong> points, <strong>0.535%</strong>, for today’s expiry, a level comparison only against the <strong>41.15</strong> points quoted for yesterday’s, since the two are different contracts.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> Friday’s expiry prices <strong>59.60</strong> points, <strong>0.768%</strong>, and stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision. A session ago the same expiry was quoted at <strong>73.80</strong> points with three sessions left rather than two. The clock alone would have left about <strong>60.3</strong>, so roughly <strong>0.7</strong> of a point came out beyond the decay.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal:</strong> SKEW at <strong>150.36</strong> after a <strong>10.04</strong> point fall, with the tail-risk index down <strong>11.50%</strong> the same session. Both stay high in absolute terms, so in our view this is a tail that got cheaper rather than one that was abandoned.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> implied correlation at <strong>12.83</strong> against dispersion at <strong>37.14</strong>, both close to unchanged, so in our view the index is still priced as names that disagree rather than as one object.</li> </ul> <p>The shape of Wednesday’s repricing is clean. Friday’s at-the-money price came off by close to what one fewer session alone would take, so in our view implied volatility at the money barely moved. What moved sat in the wings: ten points off the crash gauge, a tenth off the tail index, the bond gauge down <strong>5.66%</strong>.</p> <p>In our view that is a market cutting the price of protection it is not using while leaving the next two sessions alone. Yesterday’s flow, where a side could be read, was still buying downside.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/cancellation-not-calm---options-brief---21-october-2026-21102026" data-id="90DF0B9E671C432AAD9074472370A1F5" data-type="Article">Cancellation not calm - Options Brief - 21 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/the-front-end-drains-the-tails-do-not---options-brief---20-october-2026-20102026" data-id="612CD6DC225944E78128AAB66B18A30E" data-type="Article">The front end drains the tails do not - Options Brief - 20 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chip-stocks-sold-off-after-key-earnings---22-october-2026-22102026" data-id="2CE6528B3F8841C3BD68FB3CAD1DE497" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chip stocks sold off after key earnings - 22 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---spacex-and-tesla-merger-on-the-cards---21-october-2026-21102026" data-id="44775F204B4F43989294F0C01EC435D6" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards - 21 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The price of the future: what Meta and Tesla's earnings reveal</h1> <p>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul > <li ><strong>Meta's advertising engine is funding its AI ambitions</strong>, but rising spending raises the bar for future returns.</li> <li ><strong>Tesla's profits remain under pressure</strong>, as investors weigh today's car business against tomorrow's robots and autonomous driving.</li> <li ><strong>The real question is not who spends more,</strong> but who can turn investment into lasting profits.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>Some companies invest in the future. Others seem determined to build several futures at once.</p> <p>Meta and Tesla delivered their third-quarter earnings on 21 October 2026, offering investors two fascinating examples of this ambition.</p> <p>Meta, the company behind Facebook and Instagram, is using its profitable advertising business to finance an artificial intelligence empire. Tesla, best known for electric cars, increasingly wants to become a leader in autonomous driving, robotics and AI.</p> <p>Both are spending heavily. But their financial foundations, and the evidence supporting their ambitions, look rather different.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Meta: the money machine meets the spending machine</strong></h3> <p>Meta's advertising business remains remarkably strong.</p> <p>Revenue jumped 26% to 64.6 billion USD, helped by more advertisements and higher prices. AI is already improving recommendations and helping advertisers reach potential customers more effectively.</p> <p>That matters. Meta is not simply hoping AI will eventually generate revenue. Parts of its investment are already improving the business that pays the bills. But those bills are getting considerably larger.</p> <p>Meta now expects capital expenditure, mainly spending on infrastructure such as data centres and chips, of 135 billion to 145 billion USD in 2026. Its quarterly free cash flow, the money remaining after investment spending, turned negative at 2.1 billion USD.</p> <p>A large legal charge also distorted reported profits. Excluding a 9.9 billion USD settlement-related expense, operating profit reached approximately 22.9 billion USD, representing a healthy 35% margin.</p> <p>Meanwhile, its new AI assistant, Muse, has attracted more than 10 million registered users. The challenge now is turning engagement into profitable revenue.</p> <p>Meta's proposed new non-voting share class adds another consideration: the company could raise capital while preserving Mark Zuckerberg's control.</p> <p>The investor lesson: a profitable core business can finance ambitious projects, but growing revenue does not automatically translate into growing cash for shareholders.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Tesla: the future looks exciting, the present less so</strong></h3> <p>Tesla's numbers tell a different story.</p> <p>Revenue remained broadly flat at 28 billion USD, while reported net profit dropped around 43% to 787 million USD. The company delivered approximately 487,000 vehicles, demonstrating resilient demand. Yet operating profit fell 56%, highlighting the pressure from investment costs and the challenges facing its automotive business.</p> <p>There were encouraging signs. Gross margins improved and Tesla generated 1.5 billion USD in free cash flow, despite quarterly capital expenditure more than doubling to 4.7 billion USD.</p> <p>Tesla also reduced its expected full-year investment spending from 25 billion to 20 billion USD. But the investment story increasingly extends beyond cars. Autonomous taxis, Optimus humanoid robots and AI software could eventually create new revenue streams with different economics from manufacturing vehicles.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX are exploring a potential merger. That creates another strategic question: would combining the businesses unlock valuable opportunities or increase complexity?</p> <p>The investor lesson: Tesla's valuation increasingly depends on businesses whose future profitability remains difficult to measure. Progress in technology matters, but commercial adoption matters more.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Different businesses, surprisingly similar risks</strong></h3> <p>Meta faces the risk that AI infrastructure costs grow faster than the profits they generate. Advertising growth, operating margins and free cash flow are useful early warning signs.</p> <p>Tesla faces weaker vehicle profitability, execution challenges in autonomous driving and uncertainty around future investment requirements. Investors can monitor vehicle margins, commercial robotaxi adoption and cash generation.</p> <p>Both companies also face a familiar risk: expectations. Even excellent products can disappoint shareholders when valuations already assume exceptional future success.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook: follow the money</strong></h3> <ul > <li ><strong>Separate today's profits from tomorrow's promises.</strong> Understand which businesses generate cash and which still consume it.</li> <li ><strong>Watch spending efficiency.</strong> Rising investment becomes more convincing when revenue, margins and cash flow improve.</li> <li ><strong>Consider expectations.</strong> Strong companies can still deliver disappointing returns when investors pay too much for future growth.</li> <li ><strong>Mind concentration.</strong> Several technology holdings may depend on the same assumptions about AI adoption and spending.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The future still needs to pay the bills</strong></h3> <p>Meta and Tesla are pursuing different versions of the future, but their earnings reveal a common challenge.</p> <p>Meta has a powerful advertising engine generating substantial profits while its AI ambitions consume increasingly large amounts of capital. Tesla has an established automotive business, but much of its investment appeal increasingly rests on technologies that have yet to demonstrate their full commercial potential.</p> <p>Neither approach guarantees success or failure.</p> <p>For investors, the distinction matters because innovation and shareholder returns are not always the same thing. The most important question is rarely whether a company's vision sounds exciting. Both certainly do. It is whether that vision eventually produces more cash than it costs to build. The future may capture imaginations. But only profits can reward investors.</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Tesla Inc.</span> <span>Meta Platforms Inc.</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodities caught between AI jitters and escalating energy risks</h1> <p>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong></strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong> </strong></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Key Points:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" > <strong>AI jitters weigh on copper</strong>: Technology sector weakness and US tariff uncertainty challenge copper's bullish outlook, despite resilient physical fundamentals. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Energy supply risks intensify</strong>: Middle East escalation drives oil to five-month highs, while European gas remains vulnerable to winter supply disruptions. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Gold's investor divide deepens</strong>: Speculative selling continues to outweigh persistent ETF demand, despite growing geopolitical and fiscal risks. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong>Commodities retain their portfolio appeal</strong>: Supply constraints, inflation risks and positive roll returns in backwardated markets support the case for tactical exposure.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p class="text--body"><span >Global commodity markets are becoming increasingly divided as investors confront weakening risk appetite, renewed geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of crowded speculative positions. While concerns about AI investment are weighing on copper and industrial metals, escalating Middle East tensions have lifted crude oil to a five-month high. Meanwhile, gold continues to struggle despite persistent ETF demand, while agriculture has suffered a sharp reversal driven by harvest pressure and speculative liquidation.<br /> <br /> <h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []">AI concerns challenge copper's bullish narrative</h3> <p>The Nasdaq's latest tumble of more than 500 points highlights growing concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom, with potential implications extending well beyond technology shares.</p> <p>High grade copper, down 2.4% and breaking below recent support around USD 6.50 per pound, has been caught between two sources of uncertainty. First, investors are questioning whether the US will proceed with tariffs on refined copper, potentially undermining the tariff-driven stockpiling that has helped support prices. Second, concerns about a slowdown in AI and data centre investment are challenging an increasingly important source of expected future demand.</p> <p>However, there is a distinction between weakening investor sentiment and deteriorating physical fundamentals. Copper continues to benefit from electrification, grid expansion and constrained mine supply, while much of the world's visible exchange inventory remains concentrated in the US. The current weakness may therefore reflect a deflation of previously elevated expectations rather than a fundamental drop in demand.</p> <h3>Oil defies broader risk aversion</h3> <p>While growth-sensitive commodities struggle, crude oil is moving in the opposite direction. Brent has reached a five-month high above USD 112 as escalating Middle East tensions and the threat of further US military action raise concerns about renewed supply disruptions.</p> <p>Despite recovering shipments from the region, the global oil market remains vulnerable. Shipping attacks, elevated freight costs and the risk of damage to critical energy infrastructure continue to threaten supply chains, while tight refined-product markets, particularly diesel, amplify the potential consequences of another disruption.</p> <p>European natural gas faces similar risks, with relatively low storage levels leaving the region more dependent on continued imports throughout winter. A prolonged cold spell, combined with renewed disruptions to LNG shipments, could trigger another sharp increase in prices from the current level around EUR 90 per MWh ≈ USD 29.50 per MMBtu.</p> <p>This creates an uncomfortable backdrop for financial markets. Higher energy prices are increasingly a source of pressure on both equities and bonds, reflecting the risk that another inflationary shock could limit central banks' ability to ease monetary policy. After several years of above-target inflation, investors can no longer assume that weaker growth expectations will automatically translate into lower borrowing costs.</p> <p>In that sense, energy remains an important portfolio hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks, even as elevated prices ultimately threaten economic activity and demand.</p> <h3>Gold caught between speculative selling and strategic demand</h3> <p>Gold's inability to capitalise on the latest bout of risk aversion remains a key focus. Despite softer Treasury yields, a slightly weaker dollar and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, bullion is, for the third time this month, struggling below USD 4,100.</p> <p>The explanation lies partly in the contrasting behaviour of different investor groups. Short-term macro-focused traders remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations, currency movements and technical signals, while longer-term investors continue to accumulate gold through ETFs as protection against fiscal instability, geopolitical risks and currency debasement.</p> <p>The latest surge in French government borrowing costs reinforces the latter argument. France's 10-year yield has risen above 5% for the first time in 24 years, while its spread over Germany has widened towards 170 basis points, highlighting growing concerns about fiscal sustainability.</p> <p>For now, speculative selling continues to more than offset strategic demand, with positioning data highlighting the divergence between the two investor groups. Since 25 August, managed money accounts, including hedge funds and CTAs, have reduced their net long exposure by 4 million ounces, while bullion-backed ETF holdings monitored by Bloomberg have risen by 2.3 million ounces. The persistence of ETF inflows despite weaker prices suggests that the underlying investment case remains intact. Once the current wave of speculative liquidation subsides, longer-term buyers may regain greater influence over price direction.</p> <h3>Agriculture: Positioning pressure meets weather risks</h3> <p>Agricultural commodities, particularly grains, have suffered a sharp reversal over the past six weeks, with the Bloomberg Grains Index falling 14% and almost fully reversing August's explosive rally. Harvest pressure and improving supply expectations have triggered a substantial unwinding of speculative positions, with the combined managed money net long across six major grain and soybean futures contracts falling from a record above one million contracts to around 750,000 in the latest reporting week.</p> <p>The correction illustrates how positioning can amplify fundamental developments, with falling prices encouraging further long liquidation and adding to downward pressure. However, despite the recent weakness, the longer-term supply outlook remains exposed to several risks.</p> <p>The ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Russia–Ukraine, the potential emergence of a powerful Super El Niño and the possibility of renewed food export restrictions could all disrupt agricultural production and trade. While current supply conditions have weighed on prices, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and weather-related threats, in our opinion, leaves room for renewed volatility and potential price recoveries.</p> <h3></h3> <h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Commodities retain their role as a portfolio hedge</h3> <p>The divergence across commodity markets highlights an increasingly complex investment environment. Growth concerns are weighing on industrial metals and agriculture, while geopolitical tensions continue to support energy prices and strategic demand underpins gold.</p> <p>Importantly, commodities can offer protection against risks that traditional portfolios may struggle to absorb. Supply-driven energy inflation can hurt both equities and bonds, while geopolitical disruptions, extreme weather and trade restrictions create upside risks across several commodity sectors.</p> <p><strong>In our opinion, the case for tactical commodity exposure therefore remains relevant, although the outlook for individual sectors is increasingly fragmented and the potential benefits must be weighed against downside risks.</strong> We favour broad-based commodity exposure while maintaining a particular focus on markets where rising demand meets persistent supply constraints, potentially driving structural upward price pressure and attractive investment returns.</p> <p>For futures-based commodity investments, total returns reflect not only changes in the underlying commodity price but also the roll return earned or lost when expiring contracts are replaced, together with interest earned on cash collateral. In markets trading in backwardation, where longer-dated futures are cheaper than nearby contracts, this rolling process can generate a positive return as futures prices converge towards spot prices, assuming the curve remains unchanged. Conversely, contango can create a negative roll return. Persistent supply tightness can therefore offer investors a potential double benefit: price appreciation and positive roll returns, even during periods when spot prices are broadly unchanged.</p> <h3>What could go wrong? Risks to the commodity outlook</h3> <p>The constructive case is not without significant risks. A deeper slowdown in global growth, potentially triggered by a broader correction in technology shares or reduced AI-related investment, could weaken demand for industrial metals and energy. Equally, a de-escalation of Middle East tensions, accompanied by sustained improvements in oil shipments and refined-product availability, could remove a substantial portion of the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting energy prices.</p> <p>Gold could face renewed pressure if the dollar and real yields rise, or if persistent weakness forces further speculative liquidation, while agricultural prices may remain subdued if favourable harvests and ample supplies outweigh weather-related concerns.</p> <p>Finally, futures-based commodity investments carry risks beyond spot price movements. Backwardation is not guaranteed to persist, and a shift towards contango could turn positive roll returns into a drag on performance. <strong>Commodities can also fall alongside equities during broad risk-off episodes, meaning their diversification benefits are neither constant nor guaranteed.</strong> These risks reinforce the importance of balancing tactical opportunities against the possibility of sharp price reversals.</p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent crude and fuel prices - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Copper remains in a strong uptrend despite breaking below USD 6.52/lb. - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold - Source: Saxo | Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Implied roll yield across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>19 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-13-october-2026-19102026" data-id="C8D7FD8CD8AB4D1382D350D9B8E55D37" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 October 2026</a><br /> 16 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-gold-steadies-as-oil-tightness-and-growth-fears-divide-markets-16102026" data-id="7F6FE49A8C92482F93700E2D53DBD7CC" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets</a><br /> 15 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-when-falling-yields-stop-helping-stocks-15102026" data-id="AE423B21F92F4D13BC37638594FC5815" data-type="Article">Gold and silver: When falling yields stop helping stocks</a><br /> 14 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/recovering-middle-east-exports-fail-to-ease-crude-and-diesel-tightness-14102026" data-id="3AFE3972FD9549988A2EBBF24E35C4E5" data-type="Article">Recovering Middle East exports fail to ease crude and diesel tightness</a><br /> 12 Oct 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/diesel-shortages-why-the-global-economy-has-more-to-fear-than-rising-petrol-prices-12102026" data-id="29C3D97E260D43EB8BFE0F88A1EF40FA" data-type="Article">Diesel shortages Why the global economy has more to fear than rising petrol prices</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Copper</span> <span>Mining</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Soybean</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Chip stocks sold off after key earnings - 22 October 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 06:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: UK inflation came in hotter than forecast while a Saudi oil field was attacked</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong><strong>:</strong> US and European equities rallied on strong earnings, while Asian markets retreated as concerns over artificial intelligence spending resurfaced.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Most index gauges eased back while crude volatility pushed in the other direction</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Listed crypto shares rallied through the US session while the tokens slipped back overnight</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Brent tops USD 111 on renewed supply fears while gold struggles below USD 4,100</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: France’s 10-year yield hits 24-year high above 5.0%</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD slightly weaker, USDJPY pokes near two-weeks lows overnight.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>UK annual inflation rose to 3.5%</strong><strong> year-on-year</strong><strong> in September 2026</strong>, the highest since October 2025 and above the 3.4% forecast, led by higher transport and motor fuel costs, with core CPI up to 2.8%. </li> <li><strong>A deadly drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have raised supply risks</strong>, but rising Middle East crude exports and Russia’s planned diesel shipment to the US may limit further oil price gains. The US ordered some staff to leave Gulf embassies amid rising tensions, while continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment even as oil flows there exceeded pre-war levels</li> <li><strong>New Zealand’s annual inflation</strong> slowed to 3.7% in Q3 2026 from 4.1%, just below the 3.8% forecast but still above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target, with quarterly CPI easing to 0.7%.</li> <li><strong>The average </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 9 bps to 7.41%</strong> in the week to October 16, 2026, its first decline in 11 weeks as Treasury yields eased. Total mortgage applications slid 5.3%, with refis down 2% and purchase applications down 7.3%.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</span></strong></a></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0645 – France Oct. Confidence Surveys</li> <li>1100 – Turkey Central Bank Rate Decision</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>2301 – UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence</li> <li>2330 – Japan Sep. National CPI </li> <li>0030 – Japan Oct. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>T</strong><strong>o</strong><strong>day</strong>: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> US equities gained on Wednesday as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,757.17, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.1% and the Dow climbed 0.7% on upbeat earnings. SpaceX jumped 7.8% after posting its first profit as a public company, while Super Micro Computer climbed 9.6% on stronger sales and margin guidance. After hours, Tesla slipped 3.3% despite beating profit estimates as reduced capital spending plans disappointed. Musk also confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX had formed independent committees to explore a potential merger, although no agreement had been reached. Meta gained 2.2% following strong results, increased AI investment plans and a proposed two-for-one stock split involving non-voting shares. </li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities rallied on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.9% to 644.49, the DAX gaining 1.3%, the CAC 40 advancing 1.1% and the FTSE 100 edging up 0.2%, as strong earnings helped offset political uncertainty in France. Randstad surged 20.2% after quarterly growth exceeded expectations, while EssilorLuxottica jumped 15.5% on strong sales, lifting luxury shares. SAP gained 3.5% amid renewed technology optimism, but Carrefour plunged 13.8% after warning that unrest in France would hurt earnings. French government bond yields reaching 5% and higher UK inflation kept fiscal and interest-rate risks in focus, even as investors welcomed encouraging corporate results.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities reversed Wednesday's rebound during Thursday trading, with South Korea's Kospi down more than 3%, Japan's Nikkei 225 losing around 2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 2.7%, as concerns over the profitability of massive AI investments resurfaced. Technology shares led declines, with Samsung Electronics slipping more than 4%, while SK Hynix falling nearly 6% as investors questioned the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. In Japan, SoftBank Group lost 5.6% and Tokyo Electron declined 5.9%, while rising oil prices added pressure across regional markets. South Korea's central bank kept rates unchanged at 3%, while attention now turns to further US earnings for evidence that AI investments can translate into sustainable profits.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 16.68 | VIX FUTURES: 18.700 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.36) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crude firmed after the Saudi attack, yet index volatility eased. VIX fell 3.64% to 16.68 and VIX9D dropped 4.79% to 15.49, while VIX1D rose 1.61% to 11.38. VVIX slipped 2.68% to 94.55 and SKEW eased 6.26% to 150.36. Cross-asset gauges split, with MOVE down 5.66% to 95.95 and OVX up 2.25% to 53.28. </li> <li>The cash curve holds contango from VIX1D through VIX1Y at 22.03, with VIX3M at 18.72. After the roll, the front VIX future prints 18.70. SPX options imply 41.50 points, or 0.535%, for today's expiry and 59.60 points, or 0.768%, into Friday's flash PMIs.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~82,806 -1.43% | ETHEREUM ~2,441 -1.21% | IBIT 47.84 +2.42% | ETHA 56.43 +2.47% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Listed crypto equities advanced through the US session even as the tokens eased overnight, with bitcoin retracing after peaking above 84,000. Strategy led at 7.54%, with Coinbase up 3.65%, Circle 4.47%, IREN 4.58% and Bitmine 5.00%. Miners were broadly firmer, MARA adding 4.14% and CleanSpark 3.80%. </li> <li>On the regulatory front, the OCC finalised its GENIUS Act payment-stablecoin rule on 21 October, effective 18 January 2027. Swiss regulator FINMA has approved the country's first retail spot bitcoin ETF, and BlackRock has filed for a protected-exposure IBIT product.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent trades back above USD 111 a barrel, up 2%, after a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field which left operations unaffected, while a separate attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one. Both incidents highlight the risk of further escalation that could disrupt supply. Prices whipsawed again on Wednesday following another unsubstantiated report of a potential Qatar-Pakistan peace proposal. Meanwhile, the EIA reported a hurricane Isaias-related weekly drop of 0.4 mb/d in US crude production. Distillate inventories recovered from a record seasonal low, while gasoline stocks fell to their lowest level since 2014. Both gasoil and ULSD (HO) remain near USD 200 a barrel, highlighting continued tightness in refined-product markets.</li> <li><strong>Metals:</strong> Spot gold fell 1.3% to around USD 4,090 an ounce as rising energy prices added to inflation and interest-rate concerns, triggering further speculative selling. This pressure has only been partly offset by continued ETF demand, with Bloomberg data showing an 11.4-tonne increase in holdings this week to a fresh four-year high. The key question now is whether gold can find support below USD 4,100 for a third time this month, or whether we may witness a sustained break. <strong>Silver dropped 3% to USD 56.20</strong>, while copper slipped 1.5% to USD 6.48 a pound. </li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</span></strong></a></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields </strong><strong>rose slightly Wednesday, but were lower again </strong><strong>into early Thursday hours on wobbly risk sentimen</strong><strong>t</strong>, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield peaking at 4.83% Wednesday before closing up over two basis points and just above 4.80% and then rolling back lower to below 4.78% early Thursday. At the longer end of the yield curve, the 10-year treasury yield ended Wednesday only one basis point higher at 5.12% after a choppy session and dropped back to 5.08% early Thursday. A Treasury auction of 20-year notes drew solid demand.</li> <li><strong>German</strong><strong>y-France sovereign yield spread</strong><strong>s</strong><strong> widened </strong><strong>again </strong><strong>Wednesday</strong>, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle since 2012, up over six basis points to over 159 basis points. The benchmark French 10-year OAT sovereign bond yield rose eight basis points Wednesday to close at 5.013%, its first daily close above 5.0% in over 24 years.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>weakened </strong><strong>slightly Wednesday and early Thursday</strong>, with <strong>EURUSD</strong> little changed but slightly higher from Wednesday’s close near 1.1245 early Thursday, while the Japanese yen firmed more as <strong>USDJPY</strong> traded back near 157.75 and at times near the two-week low of 157.55 as global bond yields steadied. </li> <li><strong>AUD traded weaker</strong>, as weak metals prices weighed, sending <strong>AUDUSD</strong> back toward 0.7015 early Thursday after a 0.7037 high and <strong>AUDJPY</strong> reversed sharply from a 111.31 high early Thursday to trade as low as 110.46 before rebounding.</li> <li><strong>EURGBP </strong><strong>rebounded from its 17-month low Wednesday </strong><strong>at 0.8372</strong><strong> </strong>despite the ongoing negative focus on French sovereign bonds, trading near 0.8392 early Thursday. </li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Forex Trading News & Analysis</span></strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 22 October, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 01:24:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 22 October, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>UK inflation hotter than expected. US orders staff to leave gulf embassies. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >SpaceX +7.8% on blowout results; Meta +2% on earnings beat, stock split </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Mexican peso hits fresh year-to-date low and Sterling near 1.34 handle </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Gold remains under pressure while holding above $4,100 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >French 10-year yields hit 5% for first time since 2002 </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong ><span>Macro: </span></strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>UK annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September 2026, the highest since October 2025 and above the 3.4% forecast</span></strong><span>, led by higher transport and motor fuel costs, with <strong>core CPI up to 2.8%.</strong></span><span></span><strong ><span>A deadly drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have raised supply risks</span></strong><span >, but rising Middle East crude exports and <strong>Russia’s planned diesel shipment to the US may limit further oil price gains.</strong></span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>New Zealand’s annual inflation slowed to 3.7% in Q3 2026 from 4.1%</span></strong><span >, just below the 3.8% forecast but still above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target, with quarterly CPI easing to 0.7%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 9 bps to 7.41% in the week to October 16</span></strong><span >, 2026, its first decline in 11 weeks as Treasury yields eased. Total mortgage applications slid 5.3%, with refis down 2% and purchase applications down 7.3%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The US ordered some staff to leave Gulf embassies amid rising tensions</span></strong><span >, while continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment even as oil flows there exceeded pre-war levels.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,757.17 on Wednesday, its third consecutive gain and largest single-day advance since October 9. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.1% and the Dow gained 0.7% to 52,856. <strong>SpaceX surged approximately 7.8% on blowout Q3 results,</strong> while <strong>Super Micro Computer jumped 9.6% on preliminary earnings that topped estimates. </strong>Nvidia notched its best day in over a month, rising ~2.5%. Chipotle fell 5.2% to its lowest level in nearly four years. <strong>After hours, Tesla fell ~3.1% despite a profit beat as capex guidance disappointed,</strong> while <strong>Meta rose 2% after boosting its capital spending outlook and announcing a new class of non-voting stock through a 2 to 1 stock split</strong>. CSX gained ~4% post-market on better-than-expected earnings. S&P 500 futures were down ~0.4% in early Asian trading.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU:</strong><span > European equities rallied broadly on Wednesday, driven by upbeat corporate earnings and improving AI sentiment. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 644.49, its biggest gain since October 9. The Euro Stoxx 50 surged 1.4% to 6,207.52 — its largest single-day gain since July 30. The DAX climbed 1.3% to 25,645, led by SAP (+3.5%) and Adidas, which delivered Q3 EBIT 36% ahead of consensus. The CAC 40 gained 1.1% to 7,921.68. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 10,752.88, led by HSBC (+1.0%). Randstad surged ~20% after beating Q3 organic growth estimates</span><strong >. Carrefour plunged a record amount after warning that social unrest in France would hit earnings. </strong><span >French 10-year yields hit 5% for the first time since July 2002, adding a fiscal overhang to the session.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia:</strong><span > Asian equities were broadly higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the AI trade revival following SpaceX and Super Micro earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed ~1.1%, snapping a losing streak. The Kospi surged 3.7% on Wednesday, rebounding sharply after Tuesday's selloff triggered by the dismal IPO debut of AI infrastructure firm Elice (-32%). The Taiex gained 1.4% as AI hardware names rallied. However, as of the Thursday open, the Kospi reversed course, falling ~1.2% to 5,666 as investors focused on Tesla's disappointing capex guidance rather than Meta's AI spending boost. Nikkei futures also pointed lower in early trade. The Hang Seng last traded at 23,651.87. The Nikkei 225 last closed at 64,621.24. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.4% on Wednesday. Foreign funds bought a net $357 million of Korean equities on October 21, the highest single-day net buying in one month.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Thursday: </strong>Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Comcast, American Airlines, Bloom Energy </li> <li><strong >Friday: </strong><span >American Express, Schlumberger </span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>The <strong>yen </strong>remains under pressure as the dollar strengthened on risk-off flows and higher US yields. The pair is up marginally on the day, with the yen near multi-month lows against the dollar.<span></span></li> <li>The <strong >pound </strong><span >is consolidating above its 21-day moving average for the first time since late August, with bulls eyeing the 1.3470 Fibonacci level as the next key resistance.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >peso </strong><span >fell ~1.4%, the worst performer among major EM currencies, as expectations for a Banxico rate cut consolidated. Latin American currencies broadly weakened as the dollar, US yields and crude prices ground higher.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >yuan </strong><span >held firm onshore and offshore despite dollar strength, with the PBOC setting the fixing at 6.7192 per dollar. China is reportedly moving toward unifying onshore and offshore yuan pricing, with the PBOC piloting a program allowing offshore clearing banks to trade in the mainland interbank FX market.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD </strong><span >— Vol elevated ahead of Q3 CPI: 1</span><span >‑</span><span >week implied vol at 6.70 with tenor covering Q3 CPI, option</span><span >‑</span><span >implied range 0.6938–0.7067, and hawkish RBA commentary supportive.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDJPY </strong><span >— Technical resistance in focus: Rallying into clustered 50/100/200</span><span >‑</span><span >DMAs at 111.55–112.09.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >NZDUSD </strong><span >— Breaching key levels: NZD is up ~0.11% in G10, with the pair pushing above initial technical thresholds.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Commodities:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent </strong>traded at $108.82/bbl, with prices whipsawing during the US session as reports of a potential Qatar-Pakistan peace proposal briefly pushed prices lower before being walked back. <strong>WTI </strong>rose ~0.8% to $97.93/bbl. A deadly attack on a Saudi oil field overnight added fresh upside pressure. Despite elevated prices, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly topped pre-war levels in the week through October 18.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold </strong><span >dipped to about $4,120/oz amid Middle East tensions that stoked inflation risks, despite expectations the Fed will hold rates, after a 0.4% gain in the prior session snapped a three-day slide.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li>The <strong>10-year Treasury yield</strong> rose ~1 basis point to 5.123%. The $13 billion 20-year bond reopening stopped at 5.469% — the highest yield for that tenor since it was reintroduced in 2020 — and tailed by approximately 1 basis point, indicating demand fell short of expectations. The 2-year yield rose as much as 5 basis points to 4.83% intraday, its highest level in a week, before paring gains. Option markets are building positions targeting the 10-year yield above 5.3% by month-end, covering the upcoming Fed decision, September core PCE and Q3 GDP releases.<span></span></li> </ul> <ul > <li><strong>French OAT yields</strong> rose 7–9 basis points to close at 5.009%, the highest level since July 2002, as higher energy prices, persistent fiscal concerns and a widening deficit backdrop weighed on eurozone bonds. The OAT-Bund spread widened ~5 basis points to 158 basis points. European natural gas futures rose ~4%, following oil higher.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >US high yield bond yields</strong><span > climbed to an 18-month high, with BB yields reaching 7.14% and spreads near a six-month peak, marking a third consecutive day of losses. Persistent doubts about the durability of AI-fuelled returns on massive capital investment continued to weigh on risk appetite in credit markets, with stress most pronounced in CCC-rated paper.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.</span><strong ><span> </span></strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>SpaceX hopes burn bright as huge internal divergences within US market continue.</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:40:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Big round number in France's 10-year yield.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/spacex-hopes-burn-bright-as-huge-internal-divergences-within-us-market-continue/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>Japan <span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/japan-nears-rare-earth-shortage-135934672.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">is running short of yttrium</a></span> as China cuts of supplies, likely on the excuse that Japan is remilitarizing.</li> <li>A <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLjsTOnVXI" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>long form debate on the importance and denouement of the massive US current account deficit</span></a>, the world's most important imbalance.</li> <li>Someone pokes into <span><a href="https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/coreweave-crwv-34-billion-of-equity" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how Coreweave's bonds can be under so much strain when it still has over USD 30 billion in equity</a></span>.</li> </ul> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Cancellation, not calm - Options Brief - 21 October 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The index closed up a quarter of a per cent and the price of index volatility fell 6%. Underneath it biotech rose 3.64% and the biggest technology names fell. The quiet was arithmetic.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The index stood still because its parts pulled against each other.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.31 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (160.40) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.350</strong></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><hr /> Today in brief</h4> <p><strong>The short version.</strong> Index volatility fell across the curve and hardest at the front, three-month implied correlation dropped <strong>5.86%</strong> to <strong>12.86</strong>, and the typical single name’s implied volatility did not move at all. The index was quiet by cancellation rather than by calm.</p> <p><strong>Markets.</strong> The S&P 500 rose <strong>0.28%</strong> to <strong>7,712.57</strong> and the Nasdaq 100 fell <strong>0.13%</strong>, while the equal-weighted S&P gained <strong>1.15%</strong>, the small-cap fund <strong>1.66%</strong> and biotech <strong>3.64%</strong>. Meta fell <strong>1.59%</strong> and Alphabet <strong>1.13%</strong>. Equifax rose <strong>11.3%</strong> and Eli Lilly <strong>3.5%</strong> on results, General Motors fell <strong>6.8%</strong>, and after the close SpaceX added around <strong>9%</strong> and Tesla about <strong>2%</strong> on merger talk. Europe was mixed and mostly lower, with the German to French ten-year spread at its widest of this cycle. This morning the Kospi is up <strong>2.79%</strong> and Brent is at <strong>110.44</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Volatility curve.</strong> VIX1D fell to <strong>11.20</strong> and the nine-day measure to <strong>16.27</strong>, against the thirty-day at <strong>17.31</strong>. The one-year gave up only <strong>0.25</strong> to <strong>22.05</strong> and sits near the top of its sixty-session range. The October VIX future settles at this morning’s open, so November at <strong>18.650</strong> becomes the reference contract.</p> <p><strong>Single names.</strong> Median implied-volatility rank on an identical <strong>187</strong> US names rose to <strong>46.1</strong> from <strong>45.2</strong>, with median implied volatility unchanged at <strong>33.6%</strong>. Rank rose most in health care, up <strong>3.9</strong> points, and energy, up <strong>2.9</strong>, which is where the rotation went.</p> <p><strong>Looking back: TLT.</strong> The 20 November 76 put sold on 29 September has earned <strong>80%</strong> of its premium with <strong>21</strong> of <strong>52</strong> days gone. What is left pays about <strong>3.0%</strong> a year against <strong>4.11%</strong> on a one-month Treasury bill. In our view the last part of a premium can be the worst paid.</p> <p><strong>Flow.</strong> Nine of the ten reports read as rolls, paired legs and mid-market prints with no readable direction. Nothing in the set pairs an index position against single names, so the flow does not corroborate the correlation story.</p> <p><strong>This week’s range.</strong> Two sessions in, the S&P 500 has used <strong>45%</strong> of the <strong>1.56%</strong> priced for the week, against <strong>40%</strong> of the week. The volatility index has gone through the bottom of its band, and that row’s expiry settles this morning.</p> <p><strong>Earnings and catalysts.</strong> Meta and Tesla report after the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> close, both priced under their own history at <strong>0.9x</strong> and <strong>0.8x</strong> the eight-report average. UK inflation at <strong>08:00 CET</strong>, the weekly petroleum report at <strong>16:30 CET</strong> and a twenty-year note auction at <strong>19:00 CET</strong> fill the session.</p> <p><strong>What it adds up to.</strong> Today’s expiry prices <strong>0.534%</strong> and Friday’s <strong>0.957%</strong>, against <strong>1.21%</strong> quoted for that same Friday a session ago, while SKEW held at <strong>160.40</strong>. In our view the option market took premium out of correlation rather than out of the parts, and two of the index’s largest names report tonight.</p> <p><em>That is the whole brief in one read. The sections below hold the detail behind each paragraph, with the charts, the full set of readings and the sources, for when you want to go deeper on one part.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>The S&P 500 closed up <strong>0.28%</strong> at <strong>7,712.57</strong> and the Nasdaq 100 fell <strong>0.13%</strong>, which reads as a quiet session until you look inside it. The equal-weighted S&P rose <strong>1.15%</strong>, the Russell 2000 fund <strong>1.66%</strong>, biotech <strong>3.64%</strong>, healthcare <strong>2.37%</strong> and regional banks <strong>1.96%</strong>. The large technology names went the other way, Meta losing <strong>1.59%</strong>, Alphabet <strong>1.13%</strong> and Apple <strong>1.00%</strong>. The two moves were close to the same size and pointed in opposite directions, so the index recorded almost nothing. Equifax rose <strong>11.3%</strong> and Eli Lilly <strong>3.5%</strong> on results, while General Motors fell <strong>6.8%</strong> on its cost outlook. After the close SpaceX added around <strong>9%</strong> on a <strong>4.4 billion dollar</strong> quarterly profit and Tesla about <strong>2%</strong>, after Elon Musk called a merger of the two a good idea.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Tuesday 20 October close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,712.57</strong>, up <strong>0.28%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,490.28</strong>, down <strong>0.13%</strong>. Dow Jones Industrial Average <strong>52,501.24</strong>, up <strong>1.02%</strong>. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>1.15%</strong> and the Russell 2000 fund <strong>1.66%</strong>. Biotech led at <strong>3.64%</strong>, pharmaceuticals <strong>3.07%</strong> and healthcare <strong>2.37%</strong>, while technology fell <strong>0.28%</strong> and semiconductors <strong>0.38%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> the Stoxx 600 eased <strong>0.14%</strong> and the Euro Stoxx 50 <strong>0.38%</strong>, with the DAX little changed at <strong>25,304.42</strong> and the CAC 40 down <strong>0.38%</strong>. Switzerland’s SMI rose <strong>0.76%</strong> on a cancer-drug partnership. The German to French ten-year spread closed at its widest of this cycle, <strong>153</strong> basis points.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Wednesday morning):</strong> the Kospi rose <strong>2.79%</strong> to <strong>5,707.57</strong>, recovering Tuesday’s fall in Korean technology shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng eased <strong>0.35%</strong> and the CSI 300 <strong>0.65%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent traded at <strong>110.44</strong> and WTI at <strong>99.22</strong> at the 06:00 CET pull, both up around <strong>1.5%</strong>. Gold held near <strong>4,136</strong> and silver eased <strong>0.87%</strong>. The US ten-year yield was <strong>5.123%</strong>, the thirty-year <strong>5.434%</strong> and the two-year <strong>4.79%</strong>. Bitcoin slipped <strong>0.51%</strong> to <strong>82,560</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> transitioning, with the VIX at <strong>17.31</strong>, the cash curve in contango and SKEW elevated at <strong>160.40</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>All figures from the watchlist export taken at 06:00 CET on 21 October 2026. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface</strong></h2> <p><em>The cash curve against the previous session, over each tenor’s 60-session range, with the one-session change across every measure on the board. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>The whole cash curve came down and the front came down hardest. VIX1D fell <strong>0.73</strong> of a point to <strong>11.20</strong> and the nine-day measure <strong>1.66</strong> to <strong>16.27</strong>, against <strong>1.13</strong> off the thirty-day at <strong>17.31</strong>. The one-year gave up <strong>0.25</strong> to <strong>22.05</strong> and stays near the top of its sixty-session range. The fall was concentrated where the index was being hedged rather than spread across the term.</p> <p><strong>Ratios.</strong> VIX1D/VIX reads <strong>0.65</strong>, unchanged from a session ago. VIX3M/VIX rose to <strong>1.10</strong> from <strong>1.06</strong> as the front fell away from the back. VXN/VIX is <strong>1.46</strong> against <strong>1.39</strong>, with the Nasdaq gauge at <strong>25.22</strong>, giving back less than the broad measure.</p> <p><strong>VIX futures.</strong> The October contract reads <strong>18.350</strong> and November <strong>18.650</strong>, a front-month ratio of <strong>0.985</strong>. October settles against this morning’s opening quotation, so its premium to spot is not comparable with a session ago and no change is drawn from it. November becomes the reference contract today, over a window carrying the 28 October Federal Reserve decision and the 3 November midterms.</p> <p><strong>Rates and correlation.</strong> The bond gauge rose <strong>0.39%</strong> to <strong>101.71</strong> and oil volatility <strong>3.76%</strong> to <strong>52.11</strong>, now <strong>3.01</strong> times the equity gauge against <strong>2.72</strong> a session ago. Gold volatility eased <strong>1.80%</strong> to <strong>21.83</strong>. Three-month implied correlation fell <strong>5.86%</strong> to <strong>12.86</strong> while dispersion rose <strong>2.27%</strong> to <strong>37.33</strong>, the two moving apart rather than together.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility</strong></h2> <p>Median implied-volatility rank, identical <strong>187</strong> US names: <strong>46.1</strong> from <strong>45.2</strong>.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">What the options market taught us: TLT</h4> <p>On 29 September <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/tlt-naming-your-price-on-long-term-bonds--and-being-paid-to-wait-29092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-id="CED687D86F2F4FFDBDE686E04602D2A0" data-type="Article">we looked at selling a TLT put</a>: the 20 November 76 put, an obligation to buy the bond ETF at 76. Long-dated yields have eased since and TLT has risen, with four weeks still to run.</p> <p><em>TLT closes against the 76 strike, and premium earned against time used. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Collected:</strong> 0.98 on 29 September.</li> <li><strong>Worth now:</strong> 0.195 (indicative mid, 20 October close): 80% earned, 21 of 52 days gone.</li> <li><strong>Left to earn:</strong> 0.195 over 31 days on USD 7,600, about 3.0% a year (0.195 / 76 x 365 / 31), below the 4.11% on a one-month Treasury bill (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Federal Reserve</a>, 19 October).</li> </ul> <p>In our view, the last part of a premium can be the worst paid. The chance of assignment has fallen, but the cash tied up and the loss below 75.02 have not. Holding keeps both in place to earn that 0.195; closing frees the cash and forgoes it; rolling later collects new premium for a longer commitment; assignment means owning TLT at an effective 75.02. Hypothetical, for education only.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Saxo price data, author calculation.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 20 October, yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> gave no readable direction. Nine of the ten reports are rolls, paired legs and mid-market prints, several carrying a conviction label of two out of five. The one clean strand sits in energy, where protection was bought on the ask and upside was supplied.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> does not corroborate the index story. Nothing in the set pairs an index position against single names, which is the shape a correlation trade takes, and the only explicit index-level prints were upside calls bought on the ask.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>The range the option market priced for this week around Friday 16 October’s close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Two sessions have traded, so the marker sits on Tuesday’s close. Straddles come from the Saxo chain at Friday’s close, centred on put-call parity. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <p>Two sessions in, the S&P 500 has used <strong>45%</strong> of the <strong>119.13</strong> points, <strong>1.56%</strong>, priced around Friday’s close, against <strong>40%</strong> of the week.</p> <p>Gold has used <strong>56%</strong>, all of it downward, the only market past half its range. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>43%</strong>, the bitcoin fund <strong>32%</strong> and energy <strong>13%</strong>.</p> <p>The volatility index has gone through the bottom of its band, priced between <strong>17.52</strong> and <strong>22.46</strong> around Friday’s <strong>19.99</strong> close and now at <strong>17.31</strong>. That row’s 21 October expiry settles at this morning’s open, so the band is finished.</p> <p>Friday’s expiry stops before the 28 October Federal Reserve decision, so none of the band pays for it.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>UK September inflation and public sector borrowing at 08:00 CET,</strong> the European releases of note.</li> <li><strong>The weekly US petroleum inventory report at 16:30 CET,</strong> inside the cash session. The industry body reported a <strong>4.9 million barrel</strong> draw in US crude stocks the evening before, with Brent near <strong>110</strong> for a third day.</li> <li><strong>A US twenty-year note auction at 19:00 CET,</strong> three hours before the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> cash close, with the ten-year yield at <strong>5.12%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The Federal Reserve is in blackout</strong> before the 28 October decision.</li> <li><strong>Earnings today:</strong> Meta and Tesla after the cash close, with IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Thermo Fisher, Abbott, AT&T and SAP around it.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Earnings scorecard</strong></h2> <p><em>Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, as of 21 October 2026. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Tonight’s two are both priced below their own history.</strong> Meta prices <strong>6.7%</strong> against a <strong>7.4%</strong> eight-report average, <strong>0.9x</strong>, and Tesla <strong>5.9%</strong> against <strong>7.8%</strong>, <strong>0.8x</strong>. Meta’s last four reports moved <strong>11.3%</strong>, <strong>10.4%</strong>, <strong>8.6%</strong> and <strong>8.0%</strong>, so the premium is asking for a calmer release than the recent run.</li> <li><strong>The widest premium on the board is not in technology.</strong> Novo Nordisk prices <strong>7.2%</strong> against a <strong>5.0%</strong> average, <strong>1.4x</strong>, and Novartis <strong>3.1%</strong> against <strong>2.1%</strong>, <strong>1.5x</strong>. Both are health care names, which is where single-name implied-volatility rank rose most yesterday.</li> <li><strong>Rank and event premium answer different questions.</strong> Roche carries a rank of <strong>79</strong> and prices about <strong>1.6%</strong>, the smallest expected move among the names still to report. A high rank says the name is dear against its own year; the expected move says what this particular report is worth.</li> <li><strong>Next up:</strong> Meta, Tesla and SAP tonight, Nestle and Roche tomorrow.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied range:</strong> today’s expiry prices <strong>41.15</strong> points, <strong>0.534%</strong>, against <strong>42.1</strong> and <strong>0.55%</strong> yesterday.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range:</strong> Friday’s expiry prices <strong>73.80</strong> points, <strong>0.957%</strong>, against <strong>92.9</strong> and <strong>1.21%</strong> a session ago, four sessions to run then, three now. Decay alone leaves about <strong>80.5</strong>, so roughly <strong>7</strong> points came out beyond the clock.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read:</strong> three-month implied correlation fell <strong>5.86%</strong> to <strong>12.86</strong> while the typical US single name’s implied volatility was unchanged at <strong>33.6%</strong>, so the index gauge’s <strong>6.13%</strong> fall sits in correlation rather than in the parts. Median rank rose most in health care, up <strong>3.9</strong> points, and energy <strong>2.9</strong>: single-name volatility rose where the rotation went, while index volatility fell.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal:</strong> SKEW eased <strong>0.90%</strong> to <strong>160.40</strong> and the tail-risk gauge <strong>14.77%</strong> to <strong>17.32</strong>. Far downside is cheaper than a session ago, still dear against anything before last week.</li> </ul> <p>In our view the index’s quiet is arithmetic, not a settled market. Mega-cap technology and the rest moved the same distance in opposite directions, the index netted them off, and the option market repriced correlation, not the parts. Two of its largest names report tonight, and what cancelled yesterday need not cancel again.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the rates applicable to you before entering any position. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/the-front-end-drains-the-tails-do-not---options-brief---20-october-2026-20102026" data-id="612CD6DC225944E78128AAB66B18A30E" data-type="Article">The front end drains the tails do not - Options Brief - 20 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/correlation-returns-the-index-follows---options-brief---19-october-2026-19102026" data-id="B7FD0DE229AF4C98B15841F903AEC1C4" data-type="Article">Correlation returns the index follows - Options Brief - 19 October 2026</a><br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---spacex-and-tesla-merger-on-the-cards---21-october-2026-21102026" data-id="44775F204B4F43989294F0C01EC435D6" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards - 21 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---korea-slides-as-brent-holds-near-110---20-october-2026-20102026" data-id="D32196C05C47425D98A77BB42EC661B1" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Korea slides as Brent holds near 110 - 20 October 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>SpaceX earnings: rockets built the empire, but AI is driving its future</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:45:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> <p><strong >Key takeaways</strong></p> </h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>SpaceX's revenue jumped 161%,</strong> with artificial intelligence becoming its largest business.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Starlink remains the profit powerhouse,</strong> while a major acquisition accelerates SpaceX's ambitions in artificial intelligence.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Spending is accelerating,</strong> <strong>and a possible Tesla merger adds opportunity</strong> alongside considerable uncertainty.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span >When investors think of SpaceX, they picture rockets returning to Earth, satellites filling the sky and Elon Musk dreaming about Mars. But its latest earnings suggest the company's most important launch may be happening much closer to home.</span></p> <span> <p><span>On 20 October 2026, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of 14.6 billion USD, up 161% from a year earlier. Net profit reached 4.4 billion USD, reversing a 1.1 billion USD loss and comfortably beating analyst expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. </span></p> <p><span>The surprise? More than half of SpaceX's revenue now comes from artificial intelligence, not rockets or satellites. </span><span >For investors, this changes the question. SpaceX is no longer simply a space company. It is becoming a sprawling infrastructure and technology business, with very different sources of growth, profits and risk.</span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From rockets to artificial intelligence</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX now has three main businesses: rockets and space services, Starlink satellite internet, and a fast-growing Super Intelligence division.</span></p> <p><span>The last of these stole the show.</span></p> <p><span>Super Intelligence generated 7.6 billion USD in quarterly revenue, up approximately 830% from a year earlier. The business develops AI models and software while renting powerful computing capacity to other companies.</span></p> <p><span>Growth reflects new computing contracts, greater adoption of its Grok software and the acquisition of Cursor, an AI-powered coding platform.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX completed the Cursor acquisition in August at an implied equity value of 60 billion USD. The logic is interesting: rather than simply providing computing infrastructure, SpaceX increasingly wants to own the applications running on it.</span></p> <p><span>Think of it as owning the electricity supply, the factory and some of the products coming off the production line.</span></p> <p><span>The division also turned profitable at the operating level, earning 431 million USD. This matters because investors have become increasingly concerned about whether enormous AI investments will eventually produce real earnings.</span></p> <p><span>But there is an important distinction. Revenue is growing spectacularly, while investment spending remains even larger.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Starlink pays the bills, while Starship builds the future</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Beneath the AI headlines, Starlink may be SpaceX's most attractive business today.</span></p> <p><span>Its satellite internet division generated 5.2 billion USD in revenue, up 69%, and 2.4 billion USD in operating profit.</span></p> <p><span>Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, while demand from businesses and governments continued expanding.</span></p> <p><span>Unlike rocket launches, which depend on individual contracts, internet subscriptions generate recurring revenue. Once the satellites are operating, each additional customer can help spread the network's enormous fixed costs.</span></p> <p><span>Meanwhile, the traditional space business generated 1.8 billion USD in revenue but recorded a small operating loss.</span></p> <p><span>This exposes an interesting relationship. Rockets enable Starlink to grow, Starlink generates profits, and those profits can help fund more ambitious projects.</span></p> <p><span>Starship could eventually strengthen this advantage by carrying more satellites at lower cost per unit, although its economics still need to be proven.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>SpaceX and Tesla: better together?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There is also a potentially much bigger development. During the earnings call, Musk was asked whether merging SpaceX with Tesla would make sense. His response was unusually direct: “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.”</span></p> <p><span>Both companies have established independent committees to explore a possible merger, although no agreement has been reached.</span></p> <p><span>The logic goes beyond combining rockets and electric cars. Tesla develops electric vehicles, robotics and energy systems, while SpaceX brings satellite connectivity, AI computing and launch infrastructure. Together, they could share technology, reduce duplicated spending and accelerate development.</span></p> <p><span>At a combined market value of approximately 3.5 trillion USD, however, this would be an extraordinary transaction. Musk also cautioned that a deal is far from guaranteed and ultimately requires shareholder approval.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the important question is whether combining these businesses would create more value than keeping them separate. Bigger does not automatically mean better.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What investors can learn</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Follow cash, not just growth:</strong> compare rising AI revenue with investment spending and actual cash generation.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate the businesses: </strong>evaluate recurring Starlink profits differently from the more uncertain AI and rocket ambitions.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch the merger terms:</strong> assess whether any Tesla combination creates value without adding excessive financial or governance risks.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The next launch matters more than the last</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX's latest results reveal something more interesting than another successful rocket launch. The company is building an interconnected business where rockets support satellites, satellites generate recurring profits, and artificial intelligence offers another enormous growth opportunity.</span></p> <p><span>That combination could prove powerful, particularly if the businesses reinforce one another and reduce costs over time. </span><span >But rapid growth is not the same as lasting shareholder returns. With investment spending accelerating and merger discussions emerging, expectations are rising almost as quickly as revenue.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX has already demonstrated that it can send rockets into orbit and bring them safely home. Its next challenge is less spectacular, but arguably more important for investors: turning extraordinary ambition into sustainable cash flow.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Tesla Inc.</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>CoreWeave after the bond scare: what a cash-secured put pays for, and what it carries</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">CoreWeave shares fell about a quarter in a month as its bonds traded at distressed yields. Puts now pay more than usual. What does a cash-secured put seller get paid for, and what does the seller take on?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em>When a company’s bonds come under pressure, its puts get more expensive. The seller collects more, and takes on more.</em></p> <p>CoreWeave (CRWV on Nasdaq), which rents out computing power for AI, has had a hard month. Its shares closed at USD 62.13 on 20 October 2026, about a quarter lower than a month earlier and not far above their lowest level of the past year (Source: Saxo). Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <p>Most of the damage came on 14 October, when the shares lost more than 15% in one session. The trigger was CoreWeave’s own debt: yields on its US dollar bonds climbed to levels usually seen in distressed debt, and on the bond due in 2031 investors briefly asked for more than 16% a year. The next day the selling spread to AI-related shares in Japan and South Korea (Sources: Reuters via The Star and ARY News, both 16 October 2026).</p> <p>The business itself is still growing fast, and still losing money. CoreWeave reported a backlog of contracted revenue of about USD 104 billion at the end of June, and a net loss of USD 626 million for the second quarter (Source: <a href="https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CoreWeave Q2 2026 results</a>, 11 August 2026). For investors already holding CoreWeave, or considering a position, options can add structure to a view they already have.</p> <p><em>CoreWeave daily, with the 50 strike and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What credit stress does to put prices</strong></h2> <p>When investors doubt that a company can repay its bonds, they also pay more for protection against a fall in its shares, so a put seller collects more for the same strike. A rough gauge: add the at-the-money call and put for the 20 November 2026 expiry and compare the total with the share price. For CoreWeave, that points to a move of about 23% in either direction by expiry, four to five times what options price for QQQ, the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, over the same weeks. (CoreWeave: call USD 7.28 plus put USD 6.92 makes USD 14.20, on a share price of USD 62.13. Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.)</p> <p>In our view, that gap is mostly what a CoreWeave put seller is paid for: the chance that the shares fall far and fast, as they did on 14 October. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses; options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why the 20 November 2026 expiry</strong></h2> <p>The example uses the standard monthly options that expire on Friday 20 November 2026. Each contract covers 100 shares, is priced in USD and is American-style. At the strike used here, this expiry has far more open interest than the weeklies around it (Source: Saxo), and a month of time decay (theta, the small amount an option loses each day) works for the seller.</p> <p>As of 20 October 2026, CoreWeave had not announced when it will report its third-quarter results. Last year it reported the third quarter on 10 November 2025 (Source: <a href="https://investors.coreweave.com/news/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CoreWeave investor relations</a>). On that pattern, the report would land before expiry, and a put sold now would span it, with a results-day move of its own on top of the bond story.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>For the investor who wants to own CoreWeave lower: a cash-secured put at 50</strong></h2> <p>Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 shares at the strike if CoreWeave is below it at expiry, for a premium collected today, with the cash to pay for them set aside. The view behind it: the company can work through its debt problems, and the investor would be glad to own CoreWeave at USD 50, though not at today’s price.</p> <p><em>Hypothetical, for education only. Not advice or a trade recommendation.</em></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Example structure (illustrative only - not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li>Sell 1 CoreWeave 20 November 2026 50 put at about 2.29 (bid 2.26, ask 2.33), with the shares at USD 62.13</li> <li>Premium received: about USD 229, against USD 5,000 of cash set aside, about 4.6% of it</li> <li>Delta: about -0.19, our rough estimate, from Saxo prices, of the chance of assignment</li> <li>Purchase price if assigned: USD 47.71, about 23.2% below the price at the time</li> <li>Maximum profit: USD 229 (hypothetical); maximum loss: USD 4,771 (hypothetical), if CoreWeave fell to zero</li> <li>(Source: Saxo, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST)</li> </ul> <p>All figures are hypothetical and for education only.</p> <p>Why 50? It is about 20% below the share price, near the bottom of the range the options market prices to expiry, and plenty of contracts are already open there (Source: Saxo). A move of the size the market expects could still reach it.</p> <p><strong>Risk:</strong> the USD 229 is the whole upside, however far CoreWeave recovers. Below USD 47.71 the loss grows dollar for dollar, as it would for a shareholder. The premium does little if the debt problems get worse. In a restructuring, lenders are paid before shareholders, and the shares can fall far below any strike. Two days like 14 October in a row would take them below the break-even, and they can open sharply lower after overnight news. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply and vary by account and venue; check the applicable rates before entering any position.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">At expiry (hypothetical):</h4> <ul> <li>Above USD 50: the put expires worthless and the seller keeps the USD 229.</li> <li>Between USD 47.71 and USD 50: the seller buys 100 shares at 50 and, counting the premium, is roughly flat.</li> <li>Below USD 47.71: the seller buys the shares at 50 and carries a loss that grows with every dollar lower.</li> </ul> <p><br /> <em>The 50 put in the SaxoTrader trade ticket, with the platform’s risk graph, maximum risk, maximum profit and break-even. Hypothetical, for education only. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: SaxoTrader, indicative prices, as of 20 October 2026, 22:26 CEST.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Testing the premise</strong></h2> <p>The case against starts with the bonds. In our view, lenders who ask for around 16% a year are pricing a real chance that they will not get all their money back. An investor who reads them that way may decide the premium is too little, and stay out.</p> <p>The case for points to the backlog, and to a share price that has already lost about a quarter in a month. An investor who likes the business but not the timing could wait for the third-quarter report, or use a put spread: sell the same put and buy a lower one, which caps the loss for a smaller premium.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Before placing the trade, check:</h4> <ul> <li>Bid and ask spreads; selling at the bid gives up part of the premium</li> <li>That the full cash amount is set aside; the platform’s margin requirement may be lower</li> <li>An exit plan; the put can be bought back before expiry if the view changes</li> </ul> <p><strong>Assignment risk note:</strong> CoreWeave options are American-style, so a short put can be assigned before expiry if it moves in the money.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Final thoughts</strong></h2> <p>In our view, this trade only suits an investor who would be comfortable owning CoreWeave at USD 50 even if the news on its debt got worse. The premium is higher than on a calmer stock because the risk is higher: if CoreWeave cannot refinance, the shares can fall well below the strike, and USD 229 does little against that. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. </em><em >The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/roche-sales-update-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-20102026">Roche sales update buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 20 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sap-earnings-buying-lower-or-selling-higher-and-being-paid-to-wait-16102026" data-id="16162248F6D044E4BF8EE478A44D44A5" data-type="Article">SAP earnings buying lower or selling higher and being paid to wait</a> | 16 Oct 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/tlt-naming-your-price-on-long-term-bonds--and-being-paid-to-wait-29092026" data-id="CED687D86F2F4FFDBDE686E04602D2A0" data-type="Article">TLT naming your price on long-term bonds and being paid to wait</a> | 29 Sep 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/amd-after-a-ten-percent-day-taking-something-off-the-table-without-selling-the-shares-22092026" data-id="ACEB34AA10D24B4EA96F8709F6FE12A3" data-type="Article">AMD after a ten percent day taking something off the table without selling the shares</a> | 22 Sep 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/finding-unusually-expensive-or-cheap-options-in-the-saxo-screener-18092026" data-id="B1C6A219A03F4ABCB94EDE297B17D955" data-type="Article">Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener</a> | 18 Sep 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026" data-id="6FF097126E5C41E3B0940DFBEBC1E335" data-type="Article">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article">Trading earnings with defined</a> | 31 Mar 2026<br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-end-reprices-long-end-holds---options-brief---15-october-2026-15102026" data-id="F990962B7E4B44088D5A8B26B88A711D" data-type="Article">Front end reprices long end holds - Options Brief - 15 October 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/sectors-pull-apart-the-index-holds---options-brief---14-october-2026-14102026" data-id="57517A525FBF4EE8B458781EBF88FD25" data-type="Article">Sectors pull apart the index holds - Options Brief - 14 October 2026</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Crypto and blockchain</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - SpaceX and Tesla merger on the cards? - 21 October 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: US private payrolls growth slowed and pending home sales slid to a record low</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US equities ended mixed as earnings supported sentiment, Europe slipped on AI concerns and French risks, Asia rebounded sharply. </li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Index gauges unwound at the short end of the volatility curve while crude vol firmed</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Listed crypto shares advanced while the tokens themselves drifted modestly lower</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil holds near USD 110 as supply risks persist, gold struggles and wheat slumps</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US treasury yields sideways. Germany-France yield spread widens again.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD slightly weaker in tepid trading range. GBP surge versus weak EUR continues.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>ADP Weekly Payrolls</strong> showed US private payrolls rising an average of <strong>18,500 per week</strong> in the four weeks to 3 October, a pace cited as consistent with a modestly softening labour market. <strong>US pending home sales fell 7.3% month on month in September</strong> to a record low, far worse than the 0.5% decline expected, with surging mortgage rates cited as weighing on affordability across every region. September CPI stood at <strong>3.7% year on year</strong>.</li> <li>In the UK, the <strong>unemployment rate fell to 4.7%</strong> in the three months to August, beating expectations of 4.9% and the lowest since mid-2025, with the employment rate rising to 75.3%.</li> <li>In Asia, <strong>Japan's exports rose 16.7% year on year in September</strong>, below the 20.1% consensus and the softest growth in thirteen months, despite strong demand for AI-related chips and semiconductors. Bank of Japan Governor <strong>Kazuo Ueda</strong> said underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target amid a moderate recovery and a tight labour market, citing higher Middle Eastern energy costs and strong AI-related demand. Pakistan's army chief met senior Iranian officials in Tehran, though a diplomat denied an imminent agreement while confirming negotiations continue.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Sept CPI</li> <li>0600 – UK Sept PSNB</li> <li>1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications</li> <li>1430 – EIAs weekly petroleum inventory report</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 20-year notes</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Today</strong>: Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Philip Morris, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Texas Instruments, IBM, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, AT&T, Iberdrola, Danaher</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Newmont, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Atlas Copco</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: ExxonMobil, American Express, Eni S.p.A, SLB</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The Dow gained 1% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%, as solid earnings offset concerns about financing AI investments. Equifax surged 11.3% after stronger-than-expected results, while Eli Lilly climbed 3.5% amid strength in healthcare. General Motors fell 6.8% as its outlook highlighted rising costs. After the close, <strong>SpaceX jumped around 9% after reporting</strong><strong> $4.4 billion in quarterly profit, while Tesla gained a</strong><strong>lmost</strong><strong> 2% after Elon Musk described a potential merger between the two companies as a "good idea"</strong>, with independent committees exploring the possibility. Super Micro Computer also jumped 15.5% after preliminary sales exceeded expectations, improving sentiment ahead of further technology earnings.</li> <li><strong>Europe: The Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1%,</strong> the FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, and Germany's DAX slipped 0.1% on Tuesday,<strong> as renewed concerns about AI investments and France's public finances weighed on sentiment.</strong> ASML declined 2.7% amid pressure on chipmakers, while <strong>Schneider Electric fell 3.3% after raising €6 billion in new equity </strong><strong>to help fund its $22.6 billion acquisition of US industrial software company PTC.</strong> Swiss industrial group ABB also declined despite record orders, highlighting growing investor caution towards companies exposed to data-centre spending. Roche offered some support, gaining 2.6% following a major cancer-drug partnership, helping Switzerland's SMI rise 0.8% even as French equities remained under pressure.</li> <li><strong>Asia: </strong>Asian equities rebounded on Wednesday, with <strong>South Korea's Kospi gaining 3% around midday and Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1%, as strong US earnings helped ease concerns about AI spending. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovered</strong> after falling 3.0% and 4.2%, respectively, on Tuesday, when financing concerns surrounding AI projects weighed heavily on Korean technology shares. The volatile backdrop was also evident in AI cloud company Elice, which rebounded sharply after plunging on its stock-market debut, while stronger Japanese exports provided additional support. Despite the recovery, investors remained focused on whether upcoming earnings could justify the technology sector's heavy spending and elevated valuations.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.31 | VIX FUTURES: 18.350 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (160.40) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>VIX fell 6.1% to 17.31 as front-end hedges unwound alongside easing concerns over AI-related credit. VIX9D dropped 9.3% to 16.27 and VIX1D 6.1% to 11.20, while VVIX fell 9.2% to 97.15, reversing last week's scramble for upside VIX calls. The front VIX future eased 0.75% to 18.350 on its settlement day. The cash curve held contango, SKEW stayed elevated at 160.40 and MOVE edged up to 101.71, leaving rates vol steady against the equity unwind. </li> <li>Crude vol rose, OVX up 3.8% to 52.11. SPX options imply a 41.15 point move, 0.534%, for today's expiry and 73.80 points, 0.957%, into Friday, with Tesla and Meta reporting.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~82,659 -0.32% | ETHEREUM ~2,443 -0.14% | IBIT 46.71 +0.89% | ETHA 55.07 +1.77% | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Listed crypto equities moved ahead of the tokens. Strategy rose 4.9%, Circle 5.5% and Coinbase 1.4%, while miners were mixed, Marathon up 1.4% against Iren 4.0% lower and Riot 1.4% lower. Deribit's DVOL edged up 0.8% to 37.16. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed $665.2 million Monday, its largest session since October 2025, lifting the US spot bitcoin complex to $526.6 million net while Fidelity and Grayscale redeemed, leaving one allocator to set the category sign. Spot ether ETFs lost $103.3 million, a 14th negative session in 15. </li> <li>J.P. Morgan Asset Management included bitcoin in its annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time, projecting a 10% compounded annual return over ten years at 55% volatility, against 5.5% for gold. Its authors said unstable correlations remain an obstacle to wider portfolio inclusion.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Brent trades near USD 110 for a third consecutive day after swinging within a six-dollar range on Tuesday following inaccurate reports of an imminent US-Iran agreement. Instead, continued attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz threaten supply while driving up freight and insurance costs. Together, these factors are keeping refined-product prices elevated, with distillates near USD 200 per barrel and Morgan Stanley warning that fuel tightness could persist through mid-2027. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimates that around 9 mb/d of crude has left the Gulf so far this month, well below levels implied by the US government. Ahead of today's EIA petroleum inventory report, the API reported a 4.9-million-barrel decline in US crude stockpiles.</li> <li><strong>Metals:</strong> Gold drifted back towards USD 4,100 on Tuesday before recovering to trade around USD 4,126 this morning. Elevated energy prices continue to cloud the interest-rate outlook, with traders pricing in three 25-basis-point rate hikes by next July. Overall, bullion remains confined to a relatively narrow range, caught between macroeconomic headwinds and continued demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks. Key resistance remains around USD 4,230, while support continues to emerge below USD 4,100.</li> <li><strong>Agriculture:</strong> Wheat futures slumped to their lowest level since mid-August, trading near USD 6.40 per bushel, down 20% from the three-year high reached last month. Prices have come under pressure amid hopes that an agreement to ease tensions in the Black Sea region could unlock substantial quantities of wheat from Russia and Ukraine currently awaiting export. The prospect of additional supplies comes at a time when Southern Hemisphere harvests are adding further pressure to an already weakening market.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</span></strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields </strong><strong>were little changed Tuesday and into early Wednesday</strong>, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield treading water near 4.88% and the 10-year treasury yield near 5.12% after a choppy session with wide swings in risk sentiment and oil prices. The US Treasury is set to auction 20-year notes later today. The US Treasury has controversially proposed ending the issuance of 20-year notes.</li> <li><strong>The German</strong><strong>y-France sovereign yield spread</strong><strong>s</strong><strong> widened </strong><strong>again Tuesday</strong><strong>, with the 10-year spread ending the day at its widest daily close for the cycle, up five basis points to 153 basis points total</strong>.</li> <li><strong>US high yield spreads </strong><strong>widened on Tuesday</strong>, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield corporate bonds and US treasuries three basis points wider at 332 basis points. This is the highest level posted since the end of March, which saw a local cycle high of 335 basis points. SpaceX CDS prices, a measure of the cost to insure against a default on SpaceX corporate bonds, rose more than seven basis points to end the day near 234 basis points.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>C</strong><strong>urrencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>dollar </strong><strong>traded largely sideways on Tuesday</strong>, firming slightly against a weak Euro and ending the day slightly lower versus other currencies. <strong>USDJPY</strong> remains tightly rangebound just above the 158.00 level early Wednesday, while <strong>AUDUSD</strong> edged back above 0.7000 Tuesday, peaking at 0.7030 early Wednesday before dropping back.</li> <li><strong>EURGBP </strong><strong>continues to trade heavily ahead of the UK autumn budget statement next </strong><strong>Wednesday the 28th</strong>, hitting a new 17-month of .8385 Tuesday before finding support. French debt woes are likely a key driver of relative euro weakness there. </li> </ul> <p>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Forex Trading News & Analysis</span></strong></a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The next factory revolution: 8 automation stocks to watch</h1> <p>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>From industrial robots to intelligent sensors and AI-powered production lines, factory automation could be one of the next big structural investment opportunities as manufacturers focus on productivity, supply-chain resilience and efficiency.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Why factory automation deserves investors' attention</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Artificial intelligence has dominated investment conversations, with much of the attention focused on semiconductors, cloud computing and data centres. But another transformation is taking place away from the spotlight: factories are becoming increasingly automated.</span></p> <p><span>For decades, companies built global supply chains around the lowest production costs. Manufacturing shifted to locations where labour was cheaper, while efficiency often meant producing goods in fewer, larger facilities.</span></p> <p><span>That model is changing.</span></p> <p><span>Trade tensions, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty have made supply-chain resilience a bigger priority. Companies are increasingly considering where goods are manufactured, how dependent they are on individual suppliers and how quickly production can adapt to disruptions.</span></p> <p><span>But moving production closer to customers often comes with higher labour and operating costs. That makes automation an important part of the equation.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, ageing populations and shortages of skilled manufacturing workers are making it harder for companies to expand production simply by hiring more people.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The next phase of industrial investment may therefore be less about building more factories and more about making every factory more productive.</span></strong></p> <p><span>And while factory automation is not new, the combination of robotics, advanced sensors, industrial software and artificial intelligence is expanding what machines can do.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Three forces driving the next factory revolution</span></strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>1. Reshoring is creating a productivity challenge</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Governments and companies are investing in domestic manufacturing capacity and diversifying supply chains to reduce geopolitical and logistical risks.</span></p> <p><span>However, relocating production to higher-cost markets does not automatically make economic sense. Manufacturers need to offset higher wages, labour shortages and construction costs through greater efficiency.</span></p> <p><span>Automated production lines, robotics and industrial control systems can help companies produce more with fewer manual processes while improving consistency and reducing waste.</span></p> <p><span>This could support demand for automation equipment as new factories are built and existing facilities are upgraded.</span></p> <p><span>Importantly, the opportunity is not limited to the US. Europe and Japan also face workforce constraints, while Asian manufacturers are investing in automation to remain competitive as labour costs rise.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>2. AI is making industrial automation more capable</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Traditional industrial robots are highly effective at repetitive tasks, such as welding, painting and assembling products. But they generally operate within predefined instructions and controlled environments.</span></p> <p><span>AI could expand these capabilities.</span></p> <p><span>Machine-vision systems can identify defects during production. Predictive-maintenance software can detect potential equipment failures before machines break down. AI-enabled systems can also help optimise production schedules, reduce energy consumption and adapt to changes in manufacturing processes.</span></p> <p><span>Over time, more capable robots could handle tasks that previously required greater human intervention.</span></p> <p><span>This is where AI begins to move beyond the digital economy into the physical world.</span></p> <p><span>However, the opportunity is not simply about building humanoid robots. Much of the near-term commercial value may come from improving existing industrial systems, where manufacturers can measure benefits through lower downtime, reduced waste and higher output.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>3. Automation demand is expanding beyond car factories</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The automotive industry has historically been one of the largest buyers of industrial robots. But automation is increasingly being adopted across electronics, food processing, pharmaceuticals, logistics and other industries.</span></p> <p><span>Recent industry data illustrate this shift.</span></p> <p><span>According to the Association for Advancing Automation, North American companies ordered 8,940 industrial robots worth approximately US$622 million in the second quarter of 2026. Robot orders increased 4.3% in unit terms and 21.3% in value from a year earlier, even as orders from automotive manufacturers weakened.</span></p> <p><span>Non-automotive customers accounted for 56% of robot units ordered during the quarter.</span></p> <p><span>This suggests that automation demand is becoming more diversified, although growth remains uneven across industries.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, a broader customer base could make the automation opportunity more durable over time, particularly if adoption accelerates among smaller manufacturers that have traditionally relied more heavily on manual processes.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Eight stocks exposed to factory automation</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The factory automation ecosystem includes companies producing industrial robots, control systems, sensors, motion technologies and software. The following eight companies provide different types of exposure to this structural theme.</span></p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p><strong><span>Company</span></strong></p> </td> <td> <p ><strong><span>Ticker</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Role in factory automation</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Rockwell Automation</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>ROK (US)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Factory controls, industrial software and connected manufacturing systems</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Siemens</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>SIE (Germany)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Industrial automation, digital twins and factory software</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>ABB</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>ABBN (Switzerland)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Industrial automation, drives and machine automation</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Emerson Electric</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>EMR (US)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Process automation, measurement and industrial control systems</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Schneider Electric</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>SU (France)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Industrial control systems, automation software and energy management</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Keyence</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>6861 (Japan)</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Machine vision, sensors and automated quality inspection</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><strong><span>Fanuc</span></strong></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>6954 (Japan)</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Industrial robots, CNC systems and factory automation</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Yaskawa Electric</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>6506 (Japan)</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Industrial robotics, servo motors and motion-control technology</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><em><span>These companies are examples of businesses exposed to factory automation, rather than a valuation-based screen or investment ranking. Their exposure to the theme varies.</span></em></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Industrial software and control systems: Rockwell, Siemens and Emerson</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Modern factories require more than robots. They need systems that connect machines, monitor production and coordinate complex processes.</span></p> <p><span>Rockwell Automation provides factory control systems and industrial software used by manufacturers to automate production and improve operational efficiency.</span></p> <p><span>Siemens combines industrial automation with software that allows companies to design and simulate factories before making physical investments. Its digital-twin technology can help manufacturers test production processes and identify potential improvements.</span></p> <p><span>Emerson focuses heavily on process automation, supplying technologies used to monitor and control industrial operations, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, energy and pharmaceuticals.</span></p> <p><span>These companies offer exposure to the software and control infrastructure behind smarter manufacturing.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Robotics and precision equipment: Fanuc, Yaskawa and Keyence</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Japan remains an important centre of industrial automation technology, particularly in robotics, motion control and precision manufacturing.</span></p> <p><span>Fanuc is a major supplier of industrial robots and computer numerical control systems used in manufacturing. Its business provides direct exposure to demand for automated production equipment.</span></p> <p><span>Yaskawa Electric produces industrial robots, servo motors and motion-control systems. Its technologies are used in applications ranging from assembly and welding to material handling.</span></p> <p><span>Keyence supplies sensors, machine-vision systems and measurement equipment that allow factories to inspect products, detect defects and automate quality control.</span></p> <p><span>These companies represent different parts of the automation process: moving and controlling machines, performing physical tasks and ensuring production quality.</span></p> <p><span>They also offer investors exposure to the adoption of automation across Asia, Europe and North America.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Integrated industrial automation: ABB and Schneider Electric</span></strong></h3> <p><span>ABB and Schneider Electric provide technologies that help industrial facilities operate more efficiently, although both have substantial businesses beyond factory automation.</span></p> <p><span>ABB supplies industrial automation, motors and drives, while Schneider Electric offers industrial control systems, automation software and energy-management solutions.</span></p> <p><span>Both are relevant to manufacturers seeking to improve productivity and manage energy consumption.</span></p> <p><span>One important portfolio distinction is ABB's agreement to sell its robotics division to SoftBank. Investors should therefore view ABB primarily through its remaining automation and electrification businesses rather than assume it will retain its historical industrial-robotics exposure.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What could drive the next leg of growth?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The long-term drivers of factory automation are structural, but the industry's earnings remain sensitive to shorter-term manufacturing conditions.</span></p> <p><span>That creates two potential catalysts.</span></p> <p><span>The first is a recovery in global manufacturing investment. If manufacturers become more confident about demand, trade policy and financing conditions, they may accelerate equipment orders that have been delayed.</span></p> <p><span>The second is the commercial adoption of more advanced automation technologies. AI-enabled inspection, predictive maintenance and more flexible robotic systems could encourage manufacturers to upgrade existing production lines rather than wait for entirely new factories.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, upcoming earnings announcements can provide important evidence of whether these trends are translating into business growth.</span></p> <p><span>Key indicators to monitor include:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Order intake and backlogs:</span></strong><span> Are manufacturers committing to new automation projects?</span></li> <li><strong><span>Manufacturing PMIs and capital spending:</span></strong><span> Is industrial investment recovering across major economies?</span></li> <li><strong><span>Robotics demand:</span></strong><span> Are orders expanding beyond automotive manufacturing?</span></li> <li><strong><span>Software and service revenue:</span></strong><span> Are automation companies generating more recurring revenue from their installed systems?</span></li> <li><strong><span>Margins and free cash flow:</span></strong><span> Are higher sales translating into sustainable profitability?</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The distinction matters because exciting technology demonstrations do not necessarily lead to commercial adoption. Manufacturers ultimately need automation investments to deliver measurable improvements in productivity and returns.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What are the risks?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Factory automation may be a long-term growth opportunity, but that does not make every automation stock an attractive investment at every price.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Manufacturing remains cyclical.</span></strong><span> Companies can delay equipment purchases when demand weakens, financing costs rise or trade uncertainty increases. Automation providers may experience significant swings in orders even when long-term adoption trends remain positive.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Valuations can be demanding.</span></strong><span> Investors may already be pricing in a strong recovery or rapid AI adoption for some automation leaders. Disappointing earnings or slower orders could lead to share-price corrections.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Competition is intensifying.</span></strong><span> Chinese automation and robotics manufacturers are improving their capabilities, potentially increasing pricing pressure on established Japanese, European and US suppliers.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Implementation can be costly and complex.</span></strong><span> Retrofitting existing factories, integrating different systems and maintaining sophisticated equipment can be expensive. Not every automation project delivers the expected productivity improvements.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI adoption may take longer than expected.</span></strong><span> Industrial environments require reliability, safety and precision. Moving from successful pilot projects to widespread commercial deployment can take years.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Investors should also consider currency risks when investing in companies listed in Japan and Europe.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>What this means for investors</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Factory automation offers a different way to participate in the next phase of technological change.</span></p> <p><span>While semiconductor companies provide the computing power behind AI, automation companies help bring intelligence into manufacturing processes.</span></p> <p><span>For long-term investors, the theme offers exposure to productivity improvements, industrial modernisation and the changing structure of global manufacturing.</span></p> <p><span>However, the companies involved are not interchangeable. Robotics manufacturers can be more sensitive to equipment spending cycles, while industrial software and control-system providers may benefit from a broader mix of new installations, upgrades and ongoing services.</span></p> <p><span>For active investors, changes in manufacturing orders, earnings guidance and capital-spending expectations may create opportunities to reassess the sector.</span></p> <p><span>The most important question is not simply how many robots companies can sell, but whether manufacturers are seeing enough productivity gains to keep investing.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The next factory revolution may not be about replacing people with machines. It may be about using technology to make manufacturing more productive, flexible and resilient. And the companies enabling that transformation could become an increasingly important part of the global industrial investment story.</span></strong></p> <p><em><span></span></em><em ><span>The stocks discussed are illustrative examples of companies exposed to factory automation and are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold. Investors should assess company fundamentals, valuations, investment risks and portfolio suitability before making investment </span></em></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>All ideas</span> <span>Thematic</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>