Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026</h1> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 14 May 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 14 </span><span data-ccp-char>May,</span><span data-ccp-char> 2026</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="333295682" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{41}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">US PPI jumped to 1.4% vs 0.5% forecast</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong>Equities:</strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >SP500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong>FX: <span data-ccp-char></span></strong><span data-ccp-char>U</span></span><span data-contrast="auto" >SD strengthens after hot PPI data</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong>Commodities: </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >Copper gains for 8</span><span data-contrast="auto" ><sup>th</sup></span><span data-contrast="auto" > straight session</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong>Fixed income: </strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >Yields climb on signs of inflationary pressures</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1844612150" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{91}"><span data-contrast="auto">------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="1817217267" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{99}"><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"><br /> </span><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <p paraid="1472715676" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{117}"><span data-contrast="none"><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span data-contrast="none"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="226035494" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{125}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong>Macro:<span data-ccp-char></span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>US producer prices rose 1.4% month-on-month in April 2026, the biggest gain since March 2022 and above the 0.5% forecast</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">, with goods up 2% (including a 15.6% jump in gasoline) and services up 1.2%. Year-on-year, headline PPI increased 6%. </span><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Core PPI (excluding food and energy) climbed 1% on the month</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> and 5.2% on the year, both above expectations.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><strong>The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by a 54-45 margin, the slimmest confirmation in history for the position.</strong><span data-contrast="auto" > Warsh officially starts on May 14.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>Oil inventories are falling around the world at a record pace</strong><span data-contrast="auto" > and will continue to drop for months as the disruption to Middle East supplies from the Iran war intensifies, according to the International Energy Agency.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>President Trump arrived in Beijing for his first meeting with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday</strong><span data-contrast="auto" >. Trump downplayed the amount of attention the Iran conflict would get during the summit, saying he would prioritize trade talks.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1062086942" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{165}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>US:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> US equity indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as communication services and technology sectors led gains amid the fastest annual pace of growth in producer prices in four years. The Nasdaq jumped 1.2% to 26,402.34 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 7,444.25, both hitting fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 49,693.20. Cisco Systems surged as much as 19% in after-hours trading after delivering a better-than-anticipated sales forecast of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter and announcing plans to cut fewer than 4,000 jobs. Marvell shares closed up 8.2% to $177.95 for a new record high. Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple executives joined President Trump's business delegation to China.Cerebras Systems raised $5.55bn in its US IPO, pricing at $185 a share for a c.$40bn valuation, after orders exceeded 20x the shares on offer.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><strong>EU:</strong><span data-contrast="auto" > European stocks rebounded on Wednesday with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.8% to 611.36. Technology stocks led the market higher as ASML Holding rose 4.8%, the biggest contributor to the index, tracking gains in Korean chipmakers. Merck KGaA rallied 6.8% as its results showed strong momentum in life sciences. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% to 10,325.35, with British American Tobacco contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.7%. Germany's DAX advanced 0.8% to 24,136.81, with Infineon Technologies having the largest increase at 10.7%. Mining stocks hit a new record as copper gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>Asia:</strong><span data-contrast="auto" > Asian equity markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday and opened higher on Thursday. South Korea's Kospi rose 2.6% to close at 7,844.01 on Wednesday, hitting a fresh all-time high as local retail investors bought into a wave of selling by foreign funds. Memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rebounded during the day to end 1.8% and 7.7% higher respectively. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% or 529.54 points to 63,272.11 on Wednesday, striking a fresh all-time high as a strong earnings season continued. SoftBank Group rose 1.7% after 4Q net profit more than tripled and beat estimates, lifted by OpenAI</span><span >‑</span><span data-contrast="auto" >linked gains.This morning, the Nikkei opened flat at 63,263.46 while the Kospi opened 0.4% higher at 7,873.91. Equity-index futures for Japan and South Korea advanced after US benchmarks closed at record highs. Alibaba and Tencent ADRs surged despite each company reporting revenue that fell short of estimates. </span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1659698653" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{207}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong>Earnings this week:</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Thursday</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">: Applied materials, Honda, Singapore Airlines</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1752779978" paraeid="{6e579215-f147-4ad5-96fb-d9ad324dbd7f}{225}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto">The dollar advanced versus most Group-of-10 peers for a third straight session as US headline and core PPI readings both exceeded estimates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose about 0.1%.</span></li> <li>The <strong><span data-contrast="auto">euro </span></strong><span data-contrast="auto" >lost 0.23% to $1.1715, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The currency faced downside pressure from diverging labor markets as euro-area employment indicators showed signs of strain.</span></li> <li>The Chinese <strong><span data-contrast="auto">yuan </span></strong><span data-contrast="auto" >extended a multi-day rally both onshore and offshore ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. USD/CNH fell for a 10th day to 6.7876, the longest losing streak since September 2017, defying US dollar strength.</span></li> <li>The Japanese <strong><span data-contrast="auto">yen </span></strong><span data-contrast="auto" >weakened with the dollar gaining 0.17% to 157.88 yen, up for three straight sessions. The return of dollar-yen to almost 158 suggests more intervention may be needed if Tokyo wants to curtail short sentiment toward the Japanese currency.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>Sterling </strong><span data-contrast="auto" >lost 0.12% to $1.3524, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The British pound was among worst performers in the Group of 10 amid rising uncertainty over UK leadership.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1653180525" paraeid="{817e4c4e-9bb3-4ed2-a2ce-f7317fe64e34}{20}"><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong>Commodities:</strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Oil </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">slipped in volatile trading with WTI falling 1.1% to settle at $101.02 a barrel on Wednesday, snapping a three-session winning streak. Traders awaited the pivotal Trump-Xi meeting while fresh US data suggested stockpiles have yet to drop to critical levels.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><strong>Gold </strong><span data-contrast="auto" >held a decline near $4,700 an ounce after dropping 0.6% on Wednesday as a resurgence in US inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury 10-year yields rose toward the highest since July.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>Copper </strong><span data-contrast="auto" >gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze. The copper cash-to-three-month spread on the London Metal Exchange increased $18.58 from the previous trading day to -$43.52 a ton on May 13.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1865573358" paraeid="{817e4c4e-9bb3-4ed2-a2ce-f7317fe64e34}{58}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong>Fixed income:</strong></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong> </strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto">The 30-year Treasury bond auction was awarded at 5.046%, the highest monthly result since 2007, versus a 5.041% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline. The auction tailed slightly, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand. The 30-year yield rose 0.017 percentage point to 5.046%.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><strong>Treasuries </strong><span data-contrast="auto" >ended narrowly mixed with the curve steeper around a little-changed 10-year sector at 4.47%. Long-end tenors weakened during US morning as investors set up for the bond auction, leaving yields in the sector about 2bp cheaper on the day.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><strong>Japanese government bond yields</strong><span data-contrast="auto" > rose as the 30-year JGB sale shaped up to be a tough one after the US sold similar-duration Treasuries at 5%. Long-term Japanese investors may decide it is worth waiting for JGBs to reach 4% before jumping in, which with the current trajectory could arrive before the end of June.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1897013492" paraeid="{817e4c4e-9bb3-4ed2-a2ce-f7317fe64e34}{92}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" >For a global look at markets – go to </span><span ><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank"><span data-ccp-char>Inspiration</span></a></span><span data-contrast="none" >.<strong><span data-contrast="none"> </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" > </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <p paraid="1305112142" paraeid="{817e4c4e-9bb3-4ed2-a2ce-f7317fe64e34}{114}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><em>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em></span><span > </span><span ><em><span data-contrast="none">The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></span><span ></span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - CPI spike, Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 11:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Two events hit markets simultaneously on Tuesday: April CPI came in at 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.7% forecast, and the US-Iran ceasefire was declared dead before the session close. Nasdaq 100 fell 0.87%. The Dow edged up 0.11%. Defensive rotation, not panic. The options market is telling a more nuanced story ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - CPI spike, Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Inflation came in above forecast and the Iran ceasefire collapsed on the same afternoon, pushing crude above 100 dollars and rotating investors out of growth names.</em></p> <p>April US consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023, driven by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy costs as conflict near the Strait of Hormuz kept pressure on crude. On the same day, President Trump described Tehran's latest ceasefire proposal as unacceptable, effectively declaring the truce dead. Brent crude settled near $108 and WTI near $102. Combined, the two developments pushed the Nasdaq 100 down 0.87% and the Russell 2000 down 0.97%, while the Dow edged up 0.11% as investors rotated toward defensive names.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p><em>All equity and index values are Tuesday 12 May closes. Futures represent live prices at approximately 7:20am Copenhagen time. European markets had not yet opened at time of writing.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>S&P 500:</strong> 7,400.96, -0.16%</li> <li><strong>Nasdaq 100:</strong> 29,064.80, -0.87%</li> <li><strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average:</strong> 49,765.97, +0.11%</li> <li><strong>Russell 2000:</strong> 2,842.83, -0.97%</li> <li><strong>WTI crude oil:</strong> settled near $102 per barrel (Tuesday close); Brent crude near $108</li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> $4,710, +0.50%</li> <li><strong>DAX / Euro Stoxx 50:</strong> 23,954.93 (-1.62%) / -1.48% (Tuesday closes)</li> <li><strong>Nasdaq 100 futures / S&P 500 futures:</strong> +0.41% / +0.16% (live at 7:20am CEST)</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low Vol Bull - VIX 17.99 (Tuesday close), 20-day realised vol 9.9% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.50% above its 50-day moving average</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed Tuesday at 17.99, having declined 2.1% on the session. Front-month VIX futures sit at 20.56, a spread of roughly 2.5 points above spot. That contango reflects residual uncertainty priced into forward vol even as near-term realised vol remains subdued.</p> <p>The CBOE SKEW index (which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure) holds at 139.41, signalling elevated tail-risk demand despite the nominally calm spot-vol regime.</p> <p>The equity-only put/call ratio (PCCE, which measures how much protective put trading is occurring relative to bullish call activity on individual stocks) surged 14.12% on Tuesday. The total put/call ratio (PCC) climbed 10.08%. Both moves reflect a session where traders were actively adding protection. Chipmakers and megacap technology stocks fell more than 1% across the board, in line with the Nasdaq's broad decline.</p> <p>When equity put/call ratios spike alongside elevated call volumes from prior weeks, it can indicate that market makers are carrying significant short-gamma exposure. Dealers in that position tend to buy on rallies and sell on declines, amplifying moves in both directions. Watch for this dynamic around the next large options expiry or a major single-stock event capable of triggering a de-hedging unwind.<br /> <br /> <span><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</span></p> <p><strong>Strategy insight - Call spreads on the Nasdaq rather than outright calls.</strong> When the CBOE SKEW index is elevated, put volatility is systematically more expensive than call volatility. That structural asymmetry makes buying outright calls comparatively cheap, and buying a call spread (buying a call at one strike and selling a call at a higher strike) cheaper still while preserving the bullish directional view. With Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.41% this morning, a defined-risk call spread costs less than an outright call and exploits the relatively inexpensive call skew. <br /> <em>The maximum loss is the net premium paid if the Nasdaq fails to rally through the long call strike.</em></p> <p><strong>Strategy insight - Protective puts on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) while vol is still low.</strong> With 20-day realised vol at 9.9%, well below long-run averages, the premium required to buy downside protection on IWM is compressed. The Russell 2000 fell nearly 1% on Tuesday and, as a rate-sensitive, growth-heavy index, remains the equity segment most exposed to a higher-for-longer repricing if April's CPI reading hardens the Fed's stance. Buying near-term puts here costs less than it would in a more elevated vol environment, and the energy shock provides a concrete scenario where that protection pays off. <br /> <em>The main risk is that implied volatility continues to compress, eroding the value of the put position even if markets drift slowly lower rather than sell off abruptly.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Tuesday's session confirmed two things the market had been hoping to avoid: inflation is not returning to target on schedule, and the Middle East backdrop is deteriorating rather than resolving. Heading into Wednesday, US futures are attempting a modest recovery, but European markets had not yet opened at the time of writing. With no major US data on Wednesday's calendar, crude oil headlines and any Iran-related developments are likely to set the tone. The elevated SKEW and VIX futures contango suggest the market is not ready to declare an all-clear.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---summit-stakes-oil-surge---12-may-2026-12052026" data-id="6893E31835644D25AC4E84F3A1BAF1C7" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Summit stakes oil surge - 12 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---jobs-beat-oil-surge---11-may-2026-11052026" data-id="D7896B98DE1944EA8D0D320162C960FD" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-waits-puts-surge---8-may-2026-08052026" data-id="B92366C064964B6DBA0035F015F4B7D1" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran waits puts surge - 8 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---amd-blowout-vol-unmoved---7-may-2026-07052026" data-id="568BFAE569164C5FBBAA4D1FFDB69D49" data-type="Article">Options Brief - AMD blowout vol unmoved - 7 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-retreats-records-set---6-may-2026-06052026" data-id="8C57E8877E3E4D53955D44C888428275" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil retreats records set - 6 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---ceasefire-cracks-kospi-soars---5-may-2026-05052026" data-id="D4B279186C2A47FC8083292FA822E86C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Dip bought as Jensen Huang joins Trump in China. Also: oil, gold and wheat.</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 09:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">How comprehensive a US-China trade deal will we get?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/dip-bought-as-jensen-huang-joins-trump-in-china-also-oil-gold-and-wheat/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.</h4> <p><strong>Links</strong><br /> <ul> <li>George (not Thomas)<span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbIzlVHpm1g" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>Friedmann talks geopolitical situation</span></a>, particularly Russia, US-China summit.</li> <li>Bloomberg exclusive on <span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/china-s-3-trillion-of-hidden-bad-debt-prolongs-economic-pain?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China's massive hidden debt piles</a></span>.</li> <li>A brief and brutal assessment of <span><a href="https://x.com/AscendedYield/status/2054305601233023107" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">why the UK can't get its economy back to the way it used to be</a></span>, because things simply aren't the way they used to be.</li> <li>A <span><a href="https://pracap.com/why-i-avoid-tech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hedge fund manager on why he steers clear of tech stocks</a></span>. </li> </ul> </p> <span ></span> <span ></span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures. </span></li> <li><span>Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.</span></li> <li><span> The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets. </span></li> <li><span>Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p><span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span >Agricultural commodity markets extended their strong recovery this week after the USDA’s latest WASDE report delivered a significantly tighter-than-expected outlook for U.S. wheat production, reinforcing a broader rally across grain and oilseed markets already supported by elevated energy prices, fertilizer scarcity and renewed speculative demand.</span></p> <p><span >The sharpest reaction was seen in wheat, where both Chicago soft red winter wheat and Kansas hard red winter wheat futures surged by their daily trading limits following the report. The USDA projected 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, well below the average trade estimate near 1.74 billion bushels and the lowest annual harvest since 1972.</span></p> <p><span >Most attention centered on hard red winter wheat, the high-protein variety primarily used for bread production. Output was forecast at just 515 million bushels, the smallest crop since 1957, after persistent drought conditions ravaged the southern Plains, the key production region stretching from Kansas through Oklahoma and Texas.</span></p> </span></p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">CBOT Wheat first month future, incl. US 2026/27 production forecast - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">The decline highlights how weather concerns are increasingly intersecting with broader geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. Farmers have not only faced poor growing conditions, but also sharply higher operating costs linked to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Elevated diesel prices have increased transportation and field operation costs, while fertilizer markets remain under pressure from disrupted energy and ammonia supply chains.</p> <p>While corn and soybean production forecasts remained relatively stable and close to expectations, wheat stood out as the clear stress point within the grain sector. The market response reflected the growing recognition that wheat carries a more direct food-security implication than several other agricultural commodities, particularly given its importance in global staple food production alongside rice.</p> <p>The broader grains complex has meanwhile continued to benefit from strong performance in soybean oil, which remains closely tied to developments in energy markets through the biofuel sector. Surging diesel and fuel prices have improved biofuel economics, lifting demand expectations for soy-based feedstocks and helping propel the Bloomberg Grains Index 17% higher year-to-date.<br /> <br /> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Within the sector, CBOT wheat has risen around 30% this year, while Kansas hard red winter wheat has advanced more than 37%. Soybean oil has been the standout performer, though gains have also spread into corn and the broader soy complex as markets increasingly price in stronger biofuel-related demand.</p> </p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">WisdomTree Grains UCITS ETF tracking the BCOM Grains Total Return Index - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">The latest rally has also triggered a significant repositioning among hedge funds and other managed money traders. According to the latest Commitment of Traders data covering the week to 5 May, a 3.3% weekly rise in the Bloomberg Agriculture Index triggered an estimated USD 6.2 billion of net buying across agriculture futures.</p> <p>The combined net long across 13 major agricultural futures contracts rose above one million contracts for the first time in four years, representing a nominal value of roughly USD 57 billion. The strongest buying interest was concentrated in corn and the soy complex, reflecting both improving technical momentum and growing demand optimism linked to energy markets. Overall, the combined net long across the six major Chicago trader grains and soybean futures jumped to a record 847k contracts with the bulk concentrated in corn and the soy complex. </p> <p>Wheat positioning, however, remains more nuanced than price action alone may suggest. Despite the latest rally, CBOT wheat futures recently flipped back into a net short position among managed money traders. Elevated contango structures continue to support bearish carry strategies, particularly in Chicago wheat, where abundant global feed wheat supplies still contrast with tightening conditions in higher-quality milling wheat.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">A record grain and soy long held by managed money traders - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Looking ahead, weather developments across the northern hemisphere growing season will remain critical. The market will also continue monitoring whether elevated energy prices sustain strong biofuel demand for soybean oil and corn-based products. For now, the grain sector appears increasingly influenced by the same macro forces driving broader commodity markets, namely energy costs, geopolitical disruption, and tightening supply chains.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - 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Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Soybean</span> <span>Corn</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 13 May 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 06:33:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 13 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US slipped on hotter inflation, Europe weakened on risk-off sentiment, Asia traded mixed as chip pressure offset Japan’s resilience</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX lower; inflation, oil and geopolitics remain in focus</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin near USD 81k, ETF outflows continue</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US Treasury yields pushing on cycle highs. Japan’s government bonds under pressure.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> US dollar firms slightly, sterling choppy on political focus</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Wheat jumps limit up on lower U.S. production outlook, oil stays elevated, gold and silver rebound strongly</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> US April PPI, US Treasury to auction 30-year T-Bonds</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US headline inflation rose to 3.8% YoY in Apr 2026 (vs 3.3%, above 3.7% forecast)</strong>, driven by the oil shock. Energy surged 17.9%, led by gasoline (+28.4%) and fuel oil (+54.3%). Shelter (3.3%) and food (2.3%) also firmed. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.6% (down from 0.9% in March). Core inflation rose to 2.8% YoY (vs 2.6%, above forecast), with 0.4% MoM growth. Real wages declined for the first time in three years, while the US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful.</li> <li><strong>The US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful.</strong></li> <li><strong>Japan’s current account surplus rose to a record JPY 4,681.5 billion in March 2026</strong> from JPY 3,625.3 billion a year earlier, beating expectations. The goods surplus increased to JPY 830.5 billion as export growth of 11.7% outpaced imports at 10.0%, and the primary income surplus also widened. The secondary income deficit narrowed, while the services deficit widened sharply to JPY 257.8 billion.</li> <li><strong>The US recorded a $215 billion budget surplus in April 2026</strong>, down from $258.4 billion a year earlier and below expectations. Spending rose to $622.3 billion, led by Social Security, interest payments, Medicare, and defense, while receipts fell to $837.3 billion, mainly from income taxes. The fiscal year deficit has reached $954 billion so far this fiscal year.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p>0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report<br /> 0900 – Eurozone Q1 GDP estimate<br /> 1100 – US Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications<br /> 1230 – US April PPI<br /> 1430 – IEA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report<br /> 1700 – US Treasury to Sell USD 25 billion 30-year Bonds<br /> During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings this week</strong></h4> <ul> <li> <div><strong>Tuesday (yesterday)</strong>: Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software</div> </li> <li> <div><span ><strong>Wednesday (today)</strong>: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group</span></div> </li> <li> <div><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings</span></div> </li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, while the Dow finished broadly flat as hotter April CPI renewed concerns that higher energy costs could pressure earnings and keep Fed rate cuts further away. Large-cap tech was mixed, with Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla down more than 1%, while Nvidia and Apple edged higher. Chip stocks also softened, with Broadcom and AMD down around 2% on policy concerns, while Hims & Hers slumped 15% after missing first-quarter expectations. Investors now look to earnings and Fed commentary for the next steer.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities fell around 1%, with the STOXX 600 hitting a one-week low as hotter US inflation fed a broader risk-off move. The DAX dropped around 1.6%, the Euro STOXX 50 lost around 1.5%, and the CAC 40 fell 0.9%, while UK stocks lagged as political uncertainty weighed on banks and Vodafone came under pressure. Tech and retail led the declines, while food, beverages and healthcare held up better as investors rotated into more defensive areas. Markets now watch whether inflation concerns spill further into rates and earnings expectations.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities were mostly weaker, with the Kospi down 2.3% as chip stocks dragged on regional sentiment and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei rose despite softer signals from futures, while most other regional markets traded lower after Wall Street’s inflation-led pullback. JD.com ADRs rose as much as 3.4% after stronger first-quarter results, helped by JD Retail strength and narrower food-delivery losses, even as net income fell sharply. Investors now watch whether US inflation pressure and weaker chip sentiment continue to weigh on the region.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility eased on Tuesday, but investors remain focused on inflation, oil and geopolitics</strong>. The <strong>VIX closed at 17.99, down 2.12%</strong>, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to 7,400.96. Today’s focus shifts to US producer price inflation (PPI), crude oil inventories and the 30-year Treasury auction, with elevated oil prices and the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing continuing to shape sentiment around inflation and interest rates.</li> <li>SPX options imply an <strong>expected move of roughly 72 points, or 0.98%, into Friday’s expiry</strong>.</li> <li>For today’s expiry, the near-the-money options chain continues to show a defensive skew: around the 7,400–7,415 strikes, put implied volatility sits roughly 4 percentage points above call implied volatility, <strong>signalling that investors are still paying more for downside protection than upside exposure</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets traded cautiously after hotter-than-expected US inflation data </strong>reinforced expectations for higher interest rates later this year. Bitcoin held near USD 81,000, while Ether traded around USD 2,300. Crypto-related equities were weaker, with IBIT down around 1.4% at USD 45.80 and ETHA lower by roughly 2.4% at USD 17.24.</li> <li><strong>ETF flows softened further on 12 May</strong>, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately USD 115mn in net outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw around USD 40mn leave the sector. Among major altcoins, Solana traded near USD 95, XRP near USD 1.45, and Dogecoin around USD 0.11, keeping the broader crypto tone cautious rather than decisively risk-on.</li> <li><strong>Defensive positioning also remained visible in options markets</strong>, where put activity in MSTR, CRCL and ETHA outweighed selective bullish flows in COIN, IREN and IBIT.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rose further after the US April CPI numbers came in higher than expected</strong>, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield crawling more than four basis points higher intraday Tuesday to tease the key 4.00% level before retreating slightly. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose some five basis points, sending the benchmark to its highest daily close since July of 2025 at 4.46%. A US Treasury auction of US 10-year notes saw soft demand.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened further, sending long-dated JGB yields to fresh cycle highs</strong>. Policy expectations for the BoJ remain anchored as the benchmark 2-year JGB yield hovers near cycle highs around 1.40%, but the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose another two basis points to a new high since the late 1990’s at 2.58%, and the benchmark 20-year JGB briefly rose some five basis points and above 3.50%, also a new high since the late 90’s, before retreating to below 3.49%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Chicago wheat futures climbed by their daily trading limits on Tuesday</strong> after the USDA projected the U.S. wheat harvest will fall to the lowest level since 1972, with weather damage driving forecasts for hard red winter wheat production to a 1957 low. Before easing back during Asian trading, both contracts reached 2024 highs, leaving CBOT wheat up by around one-third year-to-date. The warning also comes at a time when surging fertilizer prices risk dampening global production further during the 2026/27 season.</li> <li><strong>Oil prices dipped after gaining around 8%</strong> over the previous three sessions as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the Iran war is unlikely to feature heavily in talks in Beijing this week, adding that “we have Iran very much under control”. That control, however, does not extend to the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed with both Iran and the U.S. maintaining naval blockades. Later today, both the IEA and OPEC will publish their Monthly Oil Market Reports.</li> <li><strong>Gold, and especially silver, rebounded strongly </strong>after Monday’s technical and momentum-driven correction attracted fresh buying ahead of key support levels, particularly in silver near USD 83. The move potentially signals an improving outlook for both precious metals despite reports that India, the world’s third-largest bullion importer, has more than doubled tariffs on gold and silver imports in an effort to defend the rupee. While the higher tariffs may temporarily dampen demand, gold remains deeply ingrained in Indian culture and long-term investment behaviour.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar edged higher Tuesday after the US April CPI release sent US treasury yields higher</strong> and amidst ongoing uncertainty in the Hormuz Strait that is keeping oil prices elevated. EURUSD is still rangebound and drifted back to 1.1735 while the more rate-sensitive <strong>USDJPY </strong>remains elevated near 157.70, with considerable focus on the 158.00 area, which is the highest level seen since the dramatic official Japanese intervention began on April 30.</li> <li><strong>Sterling weakened Tuesday as markets weigh the risk of a PM Starmer exit </strong>as high-profile cabinet ministers are said to be counselling him to resign. Unknown is whether his replacement would be a new centrist- or more left leaning figure. <strong>EURGBP </strong>rose as high as 0.8698 Tuesday, nearly a three-week high before settling back below 0.8670, while <strong>GBPUSD </strong>almost touched 1.3500, down from above 1.3600 on Monday, before rebounding to the 1.3540 area.</li> <li><strong>The Norwegian krone continues to enjoy strong support from higher energy prices </strong>and the Norges Bank’s recent hawkish turn, with <strong>EURNOK </strong>pressing to new cycle- and three-year lows below 10.80 Tuesday and <strong>NOKSEK </strong>likewise running up to new cycle highs above 1.0100.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Inflation hedges: Gold, energy or equities?</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 05:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>The latest US inflation print is a reminder that the inflation fight is not over.</strong> Headline inflation has moved higher again, driven by energy, food and services, while core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Inflation risk is changing shape.</strong> This is no longer just about post-pandemic supply chains. Energy security, electrification, AI infrastructure spending, geopolitics and resource scarcity are becoming more structural sources of price pressure.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Investors may need to rethink what “defensive” means.</strong> Bonds can still play a role, but in an inflation shock they may not hedge equities as reliably. A more resilient portfolio may need exposure to pricing power, dividend growth, real assets and resource security.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Inflation is back in the conversation</h2> <p>The latest US inflation data has put an uncomfortable question back in front of investors: what if inflation does not return neatly to target?</p> <p>The April CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating again, with energy prices doing much of the damage. Gasoline, electricity, food and services all matter because they affect households directly — and they also shape expectations. Once inflation expectations start to move, central banks have less room to ease policy even if growth starts to soften.</p> <p>That is the uncomfortable part for markets. Investors have spent much of the past year waiting for rate cuts to arrive. But if inflation stays sticky, the Fed may have to stay cautious for longer. That means higher discount rates, more pressure on long-duration assets and less confidence that bonds will always rescue portfolios when equities wobble.</p> <p>The bigger point is this: inflation may no longer be a short-term cyclical problem. It may be becoming a more persistent investment regime.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Why inflation could remain higher for longer</h2> <p>There are four structural reasons why inflation risk may be harder to kill this time.</p> <h3>1. Energy is no longer just a commodity cycle</h3> <p>Energy prices are increasingly tied to geopolitics, national security and supply-chain resilience. The Iran conflict has reminded markets how quickly oil and fuel costs can feed into inflation through transportation, utilities, food and consumer goods.</p> <p>Even if the immediate geopolitical premium fades, the world is still operating with fragile energy supply chains, underinvestment in some traditional energy assets and rising demand from electrification. That creates a more inflation-sensitive backdrop than the pre-pandemic world.</p> <h3>2. Electrification is expensive before it is deflationary</h3> <p>The energy transition requires massive spending on grids, power equipment, copper, storage, renewables, nuclear, transmission and backup capacity. Over the long term, this may improve efficiency and energy security. But in the near term, it means more demand for metals, equipment, engineering capacity and skilled labour.</p> <p>That can keep capital costs elevated and create bottlenecks. Electrification is not just a green story. It is also an inflation and infrastructure story.</p> <h3>3. AI capex is creating a new demand shock</h3> <p>AI is often described as deflationary because it could eventually lift productivity. That may be true — but the productivity boost is likely to arrive later.</p> <p>The costs are arriving now.</p> <p>AI requires data centres, chips, servers, memory, cooling, electricity, grid upgrades and land. Hyperscaler spending is already running at enormous scale, and the competition to secure power and compute is intensifying. This can support a powerful investment cycle, but it can also add pressure to electricity demand, copper, advanced manufacturing capacity and selected parts of the labour market.</p> <p>In simple terms: AI may lower costs tomorrow, but it is raising demand for scarce resources today.</p> <h3>4. Globalisation is no longer the same disinflationary force</h3> <p>For decades, globalisation helped keep prices low. Companies could outsource production, optimise supply chains and rely on just-in-time logistics. That model is changing.</p> <p>Tariffs, export controls, reshoring, friend-shoring and national security priorities all point to a less efficient but more resilient global supply chain. Resilience is valuable, but it is rarely cheap.</p> <p>For investors, this means inflation risk may come not only from strong demand, but also from the higher cost of security, redundancy and strategic independence.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>What is an inflation hedge?</h2> <p>An inflation hedge is an asset that may help protect purchasing power when prices rise. In simple terms, it is something that can either rise with inflation, generate income that can grow with inflation, or hold its value when cash is losing value.</p> <p>But there is no single perfect inflation hedge. Gold, silver, energy, commodities, real assets, equities and inflation-linked bonds all behave differently. The right lens is not “which asset is best?” but “what kind of inflation are we trying to protect against?”</p> <p>For investors, the inflation toolkit can be simplified into five buckets.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>1. Precious metals: silver over gold?</h2> <p>Gold is the classic inflation hedge. It tends to attract demand when investors worry about currency debasement, central-bank credibility, geopolitical risk or financial-system stress. It is simple, liquid and widely understood.</p> <p>But in the current environment, <strong>silver may have a stronger story than gold in some scenarios</strong>.</p> <p>Why? Because silver has two roles. Like gold, it is a precious metal, so it can benefit when investors are looking for protection against inflation, currency weakness or geopolitical stress. But both gold and silver can be curbed by higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar, because neither pays income and dollar strength can make precious metals less attractive. Silver has one extra offset: meaningful industrial demand. It is used in solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles and other areas linked to electrification, which gives it a potential “inflation hedge plus growth” angle when the macro backdrop is still supportive.</p> <p>Gold may be more attractive when the market is worried about crisis, currency debasement or falling real yields. Silver may be more attractive when inflation is linked to industrial demand, electrification and a risk-on market backdrop.</p> <p><strong>How investors may access this theme:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Gold ETFs or physical gold</p> </li> <li> <p>Silver ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Precious-metals funds</p> </li> <li> <p>Gold or silver miners, with higher equity risk</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Key risk:</strong> Silver is usually more volatile than gold. It can fall sharply if industrial demand weakens, real yields rise or the US dollar strengthens. Gold can also struggle when real yields rise because it does not pay income.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>2. Energy and commodities: the most direct inflation link</h2> <p>Energy is often the most direct inflation hedge because energy prices feed into almost everything — transport, utilities, food, manufacturing and consumer goods.</p> <p>This matters now because energy inflation is no longer just about the oil cycle. It is also about geopolitics, energy security, underinvestment, electrification and AI power demand. Data centres need electricity. Electrification needs grids and metals. Supply disruptions can quickly push fuel and power prices higher.</p> <p>Commodities extend this idea beyond oil and gas. Copper, uranium, industrial metals and selected agricultural commodities can all matter when inflation is driven by physical scarcity or infrastructure demand.</p> <p>For retail investors, it may be useful to separate the commodity bucket into three parts:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Energy:</strong> oil, gas, LNG, energy producers and energy infrastructure</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Metals:</strong> copper, silver, uranium and miners linked to electrification or energy security</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Broad commodities:</strong> diversified commodity funds that spread exposure across energy, metals and agriculture</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>How investors may access this theme:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Energy ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Integrated oil majors</p> </li> <li> <p>Oil and gas producers</p> </li> <li> <p>Pipeline and LNG infrastructure companies</p> </li> <li> <p>Broad commodity ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Metals or mining ETFs</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Key risk:</strong> Commodities are volatile. Energy and mining stocks can fall if global growth weakens, commodity prices reverse, or inflation turns into demand destruction.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>3. Hard assets: owning what the world needs more of</h2> <p>Hard assets are physical assets that may become more valuable when replacement costs rise. These include infrastructure, utilities, pipelines, power grids, data centres, telecom towers and selected real estate.</p> <p>This bucket is important because inflation today is increasingly linked to the real economy. AI needs data centres. Data centres need power. Power needs grids. Electrification needs copper, storage and transmission. The digital economy may look weightless, but it is becoming more physical — and more expensive to build.</p> <p>Hard assets may help because some have long-term contracts, regulated returns, inflation-linked pricing or exposure to essential services. They can also benefit from the need to rebuild and expand infrastructure.</p> <p><strong>How investors may access this theme:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Infrastructure ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Listed infrastructure companies</p> </li> <li> <p>Utilities</p> </li> <li> <p>Pipeline companies</p> </li> <li> <p>Data-centre REITs</p> </li> <li> <p>Selected real estate investment trusts</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Key risk:</strong> Hard assets are often sensitive to interest rates. If bond yields rise sharply, utilities, REITs and infrastructure stocks can come under pressure even when their long-term demand story remains intact.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>4. Equities: dividend plays and quality stocks with pricing power</h2> <p>Equities are not usually the first asset people think of as an inflation hedge. But the right equities can play an important role.</p> <p>The key is to focus on companies that can protect earnings when costs rise.</p> <p>There are two useful types:</p> <h3>Dividend growers</h3> <p>Inflation erodes fixed income. A bond coupon that stays the same becomes less valuable when prices rise. Dividend growth stocks may help because their income stream has the potential to rise over time.</p> <p>The focus should not be the highest dividend yield. A very high yield can sometimes be a warning sign. The stronger signal is a company that can keep growing dividends from sustainable earnings and free cash flow.</p> <h3>Quality stocks with pricing power</h3> <p>Some companies can raise prices without losing too many customers. These are usually businesses with strong brands, essential products, recurring revenues, global scale or dominant market positions.</p> <p>Examples may include selected consumer staples, healthcare companies, payment networks, software companies, exchanges, data providers and quality industrials.</p> <p><strong>How investors may access this theme:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Dividend growth stocks or ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Dividend aristocrat ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Quality equity ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Consumer staples, healthcare or quality-factor funds</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Key risk:</strong> These are still equities. They can fall if valuations are stretched, earnings weaken, bond yields rise or consumers push back against higher prices.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>5. Bonds: selective, not blanket exposure</h2> <p>Bonds are traditionally seen as defensive. But in an inflation shock, they may not provide the same protection.</p> <p>If inflation rises and bond yields rise with it, bond prices can fall at the same time as equities. That is why investors may need to be more selective with fixed income when inflation risk is high.</p> <p>Inflation-linked bonds, such as US TIPS, are one option. Their principal adjusts with inflation, so they can be more directly linked to realised inflation than ordinary bonds. Short-duration inflation-linked bond funds may reduce some interest-rate sensitivity compared with longer-duration funds.</p> <p>Cash and short-duration bonds can also play a role because they give investors flexibility and reduce exposure to long-duration rate risk.</p> <p><strong>How investors may access this theme:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>TIPS ETFs</p> </li> <li> <p>Inflation-linked bond funds</p> </li> <li> <p>Short-duration bond funds</p> </li> <li> <p>Treasury bills or high-quality short-term cash instruments</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Key risk:</strong> Inflation-linked bonds are not magic. They can still lose value if real yields rise sharply. Longer-duration bonds are especially vulnerable when inflation keeps central banks cautious.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>A simple way to think about inflation hedges</h2> <p>Different inflation hedges work in different environments:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Crisis or currency concern:</strong> gold may work better.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Inflation plus industrial growth:</strong> silver and copper may be more interesting.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Energy shock:</strong> energy stocks, energy ETFs and energy infrastructure may be more direct.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Infrastructure and AI power demand:</strong> hard assets, grids, utilities and data centres may be relevant.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Sticky inflation with resilient growth:</strong> dividend growers and pricing-power stocks may help.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Inflation expectations without too much real-yield pressure:</strong> TIPS may be useful.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Bottom line</h2> <p>Inflation is not dead. It is changing shape.</p> <p>The next phase may be less about pandemic bottlenecks and more about energy security, electrification, AI capex, geopolitics and the cost of rebuilding supply-chain resilience. AI may eventually deliver productivity gains, but the investment boom comes first — and that investment boom needs power, chips, metals, cooling and infrastructure.</p> <p>For investors, the answer is not to chase one inflation hedge. It is to build a broader resilience framework.</p> <p>That means asking:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Which companies can raise prices?</p> </li> <li> <p>Which companies can grow cash flows and dividends?</p> </li> <li> <p>Which assets benefit from infrastructure replacement and power demand?</p> </li> <li> <p>Which resources become more strategically important in a fragmented world?</p> </li> </ul> <p>Portfolios built only for falling inflation may need a rethink. The world ahead may require a different definition of defence: not just safety from volatility, but resilience against the rising cost of everything.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </p> <h2></h2></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme - Dividend growth</span> <span>High Dividend</span> <span>Dividend yield</span> <span>Income investor – Dividend</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>Theme Category - Commodities</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Income investor – Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Macro Digest</span> <span>Central Banks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Silver breakout: Momentum extends or false alert?</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Key points</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Silver has broken out of a multi-week holding pattern</strong>, with the move above <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> appearing to trigger momentum and technical buying.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>The metal is behaving less like a pure haven and more like a risk-on hedge</strong>: inflation protection, industrial demand and copper strength are all supporting the move.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>The opportunity is tactical, but the risk is speed</strong>. Silver can reward momentum, but it can also reverse sharply when leveraged positioning gets crowded.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Current setup</h2> <p>Silver has surged to two-month highs after a sharp rally that pushed it back above <strong>$85</strong> for the first time in around two months. The break above the <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> zone appears to have shifted the market from hesitation to momentum, with leveraged accounts that had been sitting on the sidelines now being pulled back in.</p> <p>The move is not happening in isolation. Copper has also strengthened after breaking key resistance, giving silver an additional industrial-metals tailwind. That matters because silver is not just a precious metal. It is also tied to solar, electronics, autos, electrification and broader industrial demand.</p> <p>That makes silver’s current setup cleaner than gold in some ways. Gold remains vulnerable to higher real yields because it has no yield. Silver has that problem too, but it also carries a growth and industrial-demand story. When investors want inflation protection without fully abandoning risk appetite, silver can outperform gold.</p> <p>The big question for traders now is whether this is the start of a larger breakout, or whether the move has already pulled in too much fast money.</p> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Levels to watch</h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <th><strong>Level</strong></th> <th ><strong>Why it matters</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$82.20–82.70</strong></td> <td >Key breakout zone. This is now the first major support area and the line that keeps the bullish structure intact.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$85</strong></td> <td >Psychological and tactical pivot. Holding above this level suggests buyers remain in control.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$87–88</strong></td> <td >Near-term momentum zone. A pause here would be normal after the sharp move.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$90–91.50</strong></td> <td >Next major upside test. A break could extend the momentum trade.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$95–97</strong></td> <td >Higher resistance zone where profit-taking risk may rise.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>$100+</strong></td> <td >Psychological squeeze zone, but also where volatility and margin risk may increase sharply.</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>Below $82</strong></td> <td >Breakout failure risk. A move below here could pull silver back into its old range quickly.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <div><hr /> </div> <h1>Scenario 1: Breakout extends — momentum stays in charge</h1> <h2>Levels to watch</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Hold above:</strong> $85</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Upside trigger:</strong> $87–88</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>First target zone:</strong> $90–91.50</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Extension zone:</strong> $95–97</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Squeeze risk:</strong> $100+</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Context</h2> <p>The bullish case is that silver has moved from range-bound to trend-following. The break above <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> is important because it likely forced momentum buyers and sidelined leveraged accounts back into the market. As long as silver holds above <strong>$85</strong>, the market may continue to treat dips as buying opportunities.</p> <p>Copper strength adds to this view. If industrial metals remain bid, silver has a cleaner narrative than gold: it can act as both a hedge and a growth-sensitive metal.</p> <h2>What drives this scenario</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Copper continues to hold above its own breakout levels.</p> </li> <li> <p>Real yields stop rising or the US dollar softens.</p> </li> <li> <p>Gold remains capped, allowing silver to outperform on a relative basis.</p> </li> <li> <p>Leveraged accounts add exposure instead of fading the move.</p> </li> <li> <p>Inflation concerns remain alive, but growth expectations do not collapse.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Positioning lens</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Traders already long may look to <strong>stay with the trend while silver holds above $85</strong>.</p> </li> <li> <p>New entries may be cleaner on shallow pullbacks rather than after another vertical spike.</p> </li> <li> <p>A pullback toward <strong>$85</strong>, followed by a strong rebound, could confirm that buyers are defending the breakout.</p> </li> <li> <p>Options traders may prefer <strong>call spreads</strong> over outright calls if volatility has already risen.</p> </li> <li> <p>For relative-value traders, <strong>long silver versus gold</strong> may remain attractive while industrial metals are firm and the gold-silver ratio is falling.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Risks</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>The move has been fast, and fast rallies attract late buyers.</p> </li> <li> <p>A reversal in copper could weaken the industrial-demand story.</p> </li> <li> <p>A sharp rise in real yields could hit both gold and silver.</p> </li> <li> <p>If silver fails near <strong>$90–91.50</strong>, profit-taking could become aggressive.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h1>Scenario 2: Healthy pullback — breakout retest before the next leg</h1> <h2>Levels to watch</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>First support:</strong> $85</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Major retest zone:</strong> $82.20–82.70</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Bullish structure at risk:</strong> sustained break below $82</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Upside reset level:</strong> reclaim of $87–88</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Context</h2> <p>After a strong multi-session rally and a sharp daily jump, a pullback would not be surprising. In fact, it may be healthier than another immediate spike. The cleaner question is not whether silver pulls back, but whether buyers defend the old breakout zone.</p> <p>A retest of <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> would be important. If silver holds that area, the market can argue that former resistance has turned into support. That would keep the broader bullish structure intact.</p> <h2>What drives this scenario</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Short-term profit-taking after a large move.</p> </li> <li> <p>Copper pauses but does not break down.</p> </li> <li> <p>The dollar firms temporarily.</p> </li> <li> <p>Real yields rise modestly but not enough to break the metals bid.</p> </li> <li> <p>Traders reduce leverage before key macro data or central-bank events.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Positioning lens</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>This may be the cleaner setup for traders who missed the first move.</p> </li> <li> <p>A dip toward <strong>$85</strong> could be watched for signs of demand returning.</p> </li> <li> <p>A deeper pullback toward <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> may offer a better-defined risk-reward area, provided price action stabilises.</p> </li> <li> <p>Confirmation matters: a quick reclaim of <strong>$85</strong> after a dip would be more constructive than simply catching a falling candle.</p> </li> <li> <p>Traders may consider scaling rather than entering all at once, given silver’s volatility.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Risks</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>If silver cuts straight through <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong>, the breakout may have been more positioning-driven than fundamental.</p> </li> <li> <p>A deeper pullback could trigger stops from late longs.</p> </li> <li> <p>If copper also reverses, silver may lose one of its strongest supporting narratives.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h1>Scenario 3: False breakout — fast money heads for the exit</h1> <h2>Levels to watch</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Warning level:</strong> below $85</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Breakout failure:</strong> below $82.20–82.70</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Next downside zone:</strong> $78–80</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Deeper reset:</strong> $75–76 if liquidation accelerates</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Context</h2> <p>The bearish case is that silver’s move has been too fast and too dependent on technical buying. If the rally was driven mainly by leveraged accounts chasing the breakout, the same accounts could become forced sellers if the market turns.</p> <p>Silver remains vulnerable to the same macro headwinds as gold: higher real yields, a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions. The difference is that silver also carries growth sensitivity. If the market shifts from “inflation with growth” to “inflation with growth fear,” silver could lose its advantage over gold.</p> <h2>What drives this scenario</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Copper reverses sharply.</p> </li> <li> <p>US real yields rise and the dollar strengthens.</p> </li> <li> <p>Risk appetite weakens across equities and industrial commodities.</p> </li> <li> <p>Traders unwind crowded long positions.</p> </li> <li> <p>Margin pressure or volatility controls force position reduction.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Positioning lens</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Traders may consider reducing long exposure if silver closes back below <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong>.</p> </li> <li> <p>A break below <strong>$82</strong> would suggest the breakout has failed and that price may rotate back toward the old range.</p> </li> <li> <p>Short-term traders may look for rallies back toward <strong>$82.70–85</strong> to fade, but only if price fails to reclaim those levels.</p> </li> <li> <p>For hedging, <strong>put spreads</strong> may be more efficient than outright puts if implied volatility is already elevated.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Risks</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>False breakdowns are common in silver.</p> </li> <li> <p>A quick reclaim of <strong>$85</strong> after a dip below support could trap shorts and restart the squeeze.</p> </li> <li> <p>Any renewed inflation or geopolitical hedge demand could bring buyers back quickly.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h1>Scenario 4: Silver outperforms gold — the risk-on hedge trade</h1> <h2>Levels to watch</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Silver support:</strong> $85</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Momentum confirmation:</strong> break above $90–91.50</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Relative signal:</strong> falling gold-silver ratio</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Risk signal:</strong> gold-silver ratio rebounds sharply</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Context</h2> <p>This may be the most important lens for traders. Silver is not simply following gold. It is behaving like the cleaner risk-on hedge.</p> <p>Gold usually performs best when investors want safety, lower real yields or protection from currency debasement. Silver can benefit from those same forces, but it also responds to industrial demand. That gives silver an edge when investors want inflation protection but are not ready to give up on growth.</p> <p>If copper remains strong, equities stay supported and the dollar does not squeeze higher, silver can continue to outperform gold.</p> <h2>What drives this scenario</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Industrial metals continue to strengthen.</p> </li> <li> <p>Inflation hedging remains relevant.</p> </li> <li> <p>Growth expectations stay firm.</p> </li> <li> <p>Real yields remain contained.</p> </li> <li> <p>Gold is capped by yield pressure, while silver benefits from industrial flows.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Positioning lens</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Traders may favour silver exposure over gold when the market is in a risk-on but inflation-aware regime.</p> </li> <li> <p>Relative-value traders may monitor long silver versus gold structures.</p> </li> <li> <p>The trade is strongest when copper is rising, equities are stable and the dollar is not breaking higher.</p> </li> <li> <p>A falling gold-silver ratio would confirm that silver is leading, not just tagging along.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Risks</h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>If risk appetite deteriorates sharply, gold may regain leadership.</p> </li> <li> <p>If real yields rise aggressively, both metals may struggle.</p> </li> <li> <p>If industrial metals reverse, silver may lose its relative advantage.</p> </li> </ul> <div><hr /> </div> <h2>Bottom line</h2> <p>Silver’s breakout looks technically meaningful while it holds above <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong>, with <strong>$85</strong> now the key tactical pivot. Above that level, traders may continue to treat pullbacks as opportunities, with <strong>$90–91.50</strong> the next major upside test and <strong>$95–97</strong> as the higher resistance zone.</p> <p>The strongest argument for silver is not just that precious metals are bid. It is that silver currently sits at the intersection of three themes: <strong>inflation protection, industrial demand and momentum positioning</strong>.</p> <p>That combination can be powerful, but it also comes with sharp reversal risk. The cleaner approach is to respect the breakout, avoid chasing stretched candles, and use the <strong>$82.20–82.70</strong> zone as the key line between a healthy pullback and a failed breakout.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Silver</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 13 May, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 13 May 2026 01:31:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Both US headline and Core inflation rise YoY</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Kospi tumbled 5.3% intraday before paring losses to close lower by 2.3%</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Pound most bearish in five weeks amid doubts over Starmer’s future</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Copper surges past $14,000 a tonne; WTI crude tops $100 a barrel</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Gilts lead the bond selloff; US Treasuries fall across the curve</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US inflation rose to 3.8% YoY in Apr 2026 (vs 3.3%, above 3.7% forecast)</span></strong><span>, driven by the oil shock. Energy surged 17.9%, led by gasoline (+28.4%) and fuel oil (+54.3%). Shelter (3.3%) and food (2.3%) also firmed. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.6% (down from 0.9% in March). <strong>Core inflation rose to 2.8% YoY (vs 2.6%, above forecast)</strong>, with 0.4% MoM growth. <strong><span>Real wages declined for the first time in three years</span></strong>, while the US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful</span></strong></span><span>.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s current account surplus rose to a record JPY 4,681.5 billion in March 2026</span></strong></span><span> from JPY 3,625.3 billion a year earlier, beating expectations. The goods surplus increased to JPY 830.5 billion as export growth of 11.7% outpaced imports at 10.0%, and the primary income surplus also widened. The secondary income deficit narrowed, while the services deficit widened sharply to JPY 257.8 billion.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US recorded a $215 billion budget surplus in April 2026</span></strong></span><span>, down from $258.4 billion a year earlier and below expectations. Spending rose to $622.3 billion, led by Social Security, interest payments, Medicare, and defense, while receipts fell to $837.3 billion, mainly from income taxes. The fiscal year deficit has reached $954 billion so far.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US </span></strong></span><span>- US stocks pared losses late in the session, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, the Dow flat, and the Nasdaq off 0.7%. A hotter April CPI heightened concerns that rising energy costs could weigh on earnings and reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year despite a strong labour market. Mega-cap tech was mixed—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla fell over 1%, while Nvidia and Apple edged up. Chip stocks also declined, with Broadcom and AMD down around 2% amid policy concerns, and Hims & Hers slumped 15% after missing Q1 expectations. Sea Ltd. jumped 13% to a two</span>‑<span>month high after a profit beat, with net income up 6% to $428m and revenue up 47% to $7.1bn, boosting confidence in its strategy even as it prioritises growth over margins and targets ~25% e</span>‑<span>commerce GMV growth by 2026.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EU </span></strong></span><span>- European stocks fell around 1%, with the Stoxx 600 hitting a one-week low amid a broad risk-off move driven by hotter US inflation. Tech and retail led declines, while UK stocks lagged on political uncertainty, with banks dropping over 3% and Vodafone sharply lower. Major indices also fell (DAX ~-1.6%, Euro Stoxx 50 ~-1.5%, CAC -0.95%), while Munich Re led losses; defensive sectors like food, beverages and healthcare outperformed.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Asia </span></strong></span><span>- Asian markets look set for a weaker open after Wall Street losses, with futures pointing lower in Sydney and Tokyo and flat in Hong Kong. South Korea led declines, with the Kospi down 2.3% after earlier sharp losses, while chip stocks weighed on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (-0.8%). Most regional markets fell, though Japan’s Nikkei rose, even as futures signal slight downside ahead. JD.com ADRs rose as much as 3.4% after a Q1 beat on JD Retail strength and narrower food</span>‑<span>delivery losses, even as net income fell 53% to 5.1bn yuan.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Wednesday: </span></strong></span><span>Alibaba, Tencent, Cisco, SoftBank Group</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Thursday</span></strong></span><span>: Applied materials, Honda</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The onshore <strong>yuan </strong>remained largely stable at 6.7956 per dollar after the PBOC set a stronger fixing at 6.8426, though China's state-owned banks have been aggressively intervening to slow appreciation. The yuan strengthened past 6.8 per dollar at Monday's close, reaching levels last seen more than three years ago, as traders ramped up bullish bets ahead of President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Sterling </span></strong><span>slid across the board, with <strong>GBPUSD </strong>down 0.5% to 1.3538, the second</span>‑<span>weakest performer among major developed currencies. <strong>EURGBP </strong>edged up 0.1% to 0.8671, its fourth rise in five sessions. An Asia</span>‑<span>session dollar bid started the move, which extended as UK political risk took centre stage. Options pricing shows traders are the most bearish on the pound in five weeks amid uncertainty over Starmer’s future. </span></li> <li><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>fell 0.4% to 1.1739, its third decline in four sessions.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDJPY </span></strong><span>briefly dropped 0.3% to 156.78 before reversing; it was about 0.3% higher at 157.63, holding above the 100</span>‑<span>day moving average at 157.37. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Japanese economy fundamentals are strong and resilient, with his FX remarks providing a boost to the yen in European trading hours.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong >Commodities:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> rose 3.42% to settle at $107.77 per barrel, the highest settlement since May 5, while WTI gained to $100.32 per barrel. Oil extended gains amid growing doubts about the possibility of an agreement to end the war in the Middle East, following President Trump's statements that the ceasefire with Iran may collapse. Oil shipments from Iran's main export terminal appear to have come to a standstill over the past several days, according to satellite images.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Copper </span></strong><span>jumped above $14,000 a ton, rising as much as 1.2% to $14,106.50 on the London Metal Exchange, closing in on a record high above $14,500 set in January. Comex copper settled 1.11% higher at $6.4850, setting a new record high. The rally came as a rebound in Chinese demand and mounting supply risks outweighed concerns about the Iran war's impact on global growth.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>was trading around $4,718 an ounce after falling 0.4% on Tuesday and price action remains choppy while silver extends gains.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasury yields</span></strong><span> rose across the curve in Tuesday trading, with the 10-year yield climbing 4.9 basis points to 4.463%, approaching its 2026 intraday high. The 30-year yield rose 4.3 basis points to 5.031%, the highest since May 2025. The Treasury's $42 billion 10-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.468%, the highest result since February 2025, and tailed slightly with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.40 versus 2.43 at the previous auction.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gilt yields</span></strong><span> jumped as the potential for a leadership challenge to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stoked concern about UK finances, with gilts leading the selloff in developed market government bonds.</span></li> <li><span>Australian Office of Financial Management announced that issuance of Treasury Bonds including Green Treasury Bonds in 2026-27 is expected to be about A$125 billion, while issuance for 2025-26 has been revised to around A$120 billion.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Should you sell in May and go away? Why market timing can cost more than you think</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 13:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4>Key points:</h4> <p> </p> <ul> <li><span> <p><span><strong>Seasonal patterns exist, but they are not reliable</strong> enough to run a long-term portfolio.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Staying invested usually beats jumping in and out </strong>based on the calendar.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span ></span><span ><strong>May is a useful reminder to review risk</strong>, not to abandon discipline.</span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Every May, investors meet the same old market rhyme: “sell in May and go away”. It sounds tidy, decisive and pleasantly lazy. Sell now, enjoy the summer, come back when markets behave again. Sadly, markets did not receive the memo.</span></p> <p><span>The saying has some history behind it. The original British version told investors to sell in May and return around St Leger’s Day, a famous horse race in September. It came from a world where wealthy investors left London for the countryside and market activity slowed. A charming image, but not exactly a robust investment process for 2026.</span></p> <p><span>This year, the question feels especially tempting. The Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) closed at a fresh record high. That came despite high oil prices, geopolitical tension around the United States and Iran, and a market still heavily supported by artificial intelligence (AI) enthusiasm.</span></p> <p><span>So, after a strong run, should investors take the seasonal hint and step away? The better answer is more boring, which in investing is often a compliment: review the portfolio, but do not let a rhyme drive the bus.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The calendar has a point, but not a crystal ball</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The “sell in May” argument is not pure superstition. Historical data shows that the six months from May to October have often been weaker than the six months from November to April.</span></p> <p><span>Historical data gives the old rhyme some support, but only some. Fidelity notes that since 1945 through April 2026, the S&P 500 gained about 2% on average from May to October, compared with roughly 7% from November to April. Reuters, citing CFRA data, gives a similar message: the long-term May to October return is weaker than the November to April stretch.</span></p> <p><em></em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>That is worth knowing. It means seasonality can describe market weather. But it does not tell you exactly when to leave the house.</span></p> <p><span>The problem is variation and the recent picture is less tidy. Reuters also found that, over the past decade, the May-to-October period returned about 7% on average, including a 22.1% gain in 2025. In other words, the “bad” months have often been rather good. Markets can be rude like that.</span></p> <p><span>The 2026 backdrop also complicates the picture. It is a US midterm election year, and Reuters notes that in five of the last 10 midterm years, the S&P 500 declined from May to October, with an average loss of about 1.5%. That is a reason for risk awareness. It is not a reason to confuse the calendar with a smoke alarm.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The real cost is missing the rebound</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Market timing sounds sensible because it promises control. Sell before trouble, buy back after trouble. Easy, except for the minor issue that nobody rings a bell at either moment.</span></p> <p><span>The biggest risk is missing strong days. Market rebounds often arrive quickly, usually when the headlines still look unpleasant. That is why long-term investors can damage returns by stepping out and waiting for “clarity”. Clarity is expensive. By the time everyone feels calm, prices may already have moved.</span></p> <p><span>J.P. Morgan Asset Management research shows that staying fully invested in the S&P 500 over the last 20 years delivered far stronger annualised returns than missing just the 10 best days. The exact numbers change with the period studied, but the lesson does not: a small number of good days can do a large amount of work.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Note: Saxo Bank framework based on J.P. Morgan analysis. </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3> <p><span>This matters for investors because most portfolios are built for goals, not seasons. Retirement, education savings, house deposits and long-term wealth building do not run on a May to October schedule. They need time, diversification and behaviour that survives bad headlines. </span><span >That does not mean doing nothing. It means doing the right kind of something.</span></p> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>2026 is a review moment, not an exit signal</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The current market has real risks. US equities sit near record highs. AI-linked shares have carried a large part of the enthusiasm. Oil prices remain elevated as geopolitical risks keep inflation worries alive. <br /> <br /> Corporate earnings have been strong, but the bar is now higher. At the same time, market sentiment remains fragile, and the rally has been relatively narrow. Investors still like the story, but it is being carried by a small group of heavy lifters. That is the useful message for 2026. The issue is not whether May is dangerous. The issue is whether a portfolio has become too dependent on one market, one theme or one outcome.</span></p> <p><span>A long-term investor can use May as a check-up. Are shares still aligned with the time horizon? Is the portfolio too concentrated in US technology? Is there enough exposure to other regions, sectors or asset classes? Is there cash for near-term needs, so market volatility does not force bad selling? </span><span >That is more practical than disappearing for the summer and hoping September sends an invitation.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is inflation. If oil prices stay high, transport, energy and production costs can rise again. That could make central banks less comfortable cutting interest rates. Investors should watch oil prices, bond yields and inflation releases.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is narrow leadership. If only a handful of AI and mega-cap technology stocks drive the market, index gains may hide weakness underneath. Watch market breadth, which simply means how many stocks are participating in the rally.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is complacency. Record highs can make investors feel safer than they are. Valuation matters more when expectations are already warm. A good company can still be a poor investment if too much optimism is already priced in.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Review concentration.</strong> Check whether one region, sector or theme now dominates the portfolio. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Rebalance gradually.</strong> Bring positions back toward target weights instead of making all-or-nothing moves. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Keep cash matched to needs.</strong> Money needed soon should not depend on summer market behaviour. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Use regular investing.</strong> Monthly contributions can reduce the pressure to pick the perfect entry point. </span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>A rhyme is not a strategy</strong></h3> <p><span>The old rhyme survives because it is catchy. That does not make it a strategy. In 2026, “sell in May and go away” is best treated as a reminder to check risk, not a command to abandon the market. Seasonality can inform investors, but discipline, diversification and time usually do more of the heavy lifting. The calendar may whisper. A long-term plan should speak louder.</span></p> <p><em><span><br /> This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</span></em></p> <p><em><span>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</span></em></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Silver surged 15% in the past week, with Monday’s breakout above USD 82–83 triggering fresh momentum and technical buying. </span></li> <li><span>The metal continues to benefit from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, with copper’s record rally reinforcing demand expectations. </span></li> <li><span>Gold’s relative underperformance following Modi’s call for a pause in Indian gold buying helped accelerated a drop in the gold-silver ratio to a two-month low near 55. </span></li> <li><span>The short-term outlook now hinges on whether silver can hold above the former breakout zone and thereby avoid renewed long liquidation.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p><span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span >Silver has suddenly burst higher, reigniting excitement among traders who successfully rode last year’s rally before the bubble burst in late January, triggering an almost 50% correction through March. Since then, the metal has staged a strong recovery, with momentum accelerating over the past week as the white metal rallied 15%, lifting its year-to-date return to around 20%, while still trading more than 150% above year-ago levels.</span></p> <p>XAGUSD surged to a two-month high near USD 88 earlier today, extending Monday’s 7% rally before surrendering part of the gain as higher oil prices lifted both bond yields and the dollar. Even so, the latest move has, for now at least, changed the short-term technical outlook, with the break above the USD 82–83 resistance area triggering renewed buying from hedge funds and other momentum-focused investors that had remained largely sidelined in recent weeks.</p> </span></p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Silver - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">The move also reflects silver’s high-beta credentials relative to gold, with the white metal benefiting from its dual appeal as both an investment and industrial metal. Gold, meanwhile, continues to consolidate, with its latest inability to fully join the silver rally partly linked to concerns that higher energy prices may delay rate cuts, but also to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent call for Indians to pause gold purchases for at least a year in an attempt to ease pressure on the country’s foreign-exchange reserves and weakening rupee.</p> <p>That development has helped drive the gold-silver ratio sharply lower to around 55, the lowest since early March, highlighting silver’s current outperformance. The ratio has once again fallen well below the near-70 average seen for almost three decades. Gold, meanwhile, remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance is found at the 50-day moving average near USD 4,757, followed by USD 4,850.</p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--3">Industrial demand adds support</h3> <p>Beyond the technical breakout, silver is also drawing support from a rapidly strengthening industrial metals complex. Copper futures in both New York and London recorded fresh record closing highs on Monday, driven by strong Chinese demand, sharply declining visible inventories, and growing concerns about future supply availability.</p> <p>As a key transition metal used across electrification, renewable energy, electronics, AI infrastructure, and automotive production, silver continues to benefit from many of the same structural themes currently supporting copper. In recent weeks, traders have increasingly looked past the potential economic slowdown risks tied to the Middle East conflict and instead focused on the growing challenge of securing sufficient supply of strategically important metals.</p> <p>The ongoing disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty to an already tightening supply outlook. While silver itself is not directly dependent on Gulf exports, the conflict has contributed to rising energy, freight, and refining costs across multiple commodity supply chains, thereby reinforcing broader inflation and resource scarcity concerns.</p> <p>Fundamentally, silver also remains supported by another expected annual supply deficit at a time when both physical and investment demand remain firm, especially in China, where local demand for precious and industrial metals has stayed elevated despite broader economic concerns. Importantly, silver mine supply tends to respond slowly to higher prices because much global production comes as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">HG Copper - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">The ongoing disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty to an already tightening supply outlook. While silver itself is not directly dependent on Gulf exports, the conflict has contributed to rising energy, freight, and refining costs across multiple commodity supply chains, thereby reinforcing broader inflation and resource scarcity concerns.</p> <p>Fundamentally, silver also remains supported by another expected annual supply deficit at a time when both physical and investment demand remain firm, especially in China, where local demand for precious and industrial metals has stayed elevated despite broader economic concerns. Importantly, silver mine supply tends to respond slowly to higher prices because much global production comes as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Focus turns to support levels</h3> <p>The latest rally nevertheless carries short-term risks. After such a violent rebound, the market now needs confirmation that the breakout can stick, not least given the potentially speculative nature of the latest run-up. A sustained hold above the former breakout area around USD 82–83 would likely encourage additional systematic and momentum-driven buying. However, a failure back below that zone could trigger renewed long liquidation from recently established bullish positions.</p> <p>For now, silver appears to have regained a narrative that had been missing earlier this year: a market supported not only by precious metals demand and geopolitical uncertainty, but increasingly by structural industrial demand at a time when global supply growth remains constrained.</p> <p>Beyond developments in gold, traders will continue to watch the Middle East conflict closely given its impact on the dollar, bond yields, and inflation expectations, while today’s US CPI report for April may provide additional near-term direction. Consensus expects headline inflation to moderate to 3.3% year-on-year, while core inflation is seen edging higher to 2.7%.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - 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Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Korean politician pops the chip vibe. Sterling under pressure.</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 08:57:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Chips clipped in Asia. Starmer government wobbling with Gilts.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/korean-politician-pops-the-chip-vibe-sterling-under-pressure/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.</h4> <span ></span> <span ></span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Summit stakes, oil surge - 12 May 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 06:58:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Monday’s equity session printed record closes - and VIX rose 7% on the same day. That contradiction is today’s entire story. The 1-day VIX fell 9% while the 9-day VIX surged 19%, producing a kink in the volatility term structure that lands almost exactly on the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15. With Iran now crowding the summit agenda per Treasury Secretary Bessent, and ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Summit stakes, oil surge - 12 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Monday’s record closes masked two competing forces - and the options market is pricing exactly which one matters most over the next four days.</em></p> <p>Equities closed Monday at record levels before a late-session reversal driven by oil, which surged more than 2% as Trump rejected Iran’s latest diplomatic overture and Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions showed no sign of resolution. Heading into Tuesday, the dominant forward catalyst is the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14–15 - a meeting that was expected to centre on formalising the existing tariff framework (US duties at 30%, China’s at 10%, under an extension running through November 2026) but which the Iran war is now threatening to crowd. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already flagged Iran as a summit priority, raising the risk that progress on trade, rare earths, and a permanent bilateral framework gets sidelined.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p><em>Records on thin breadth, oil surging on Hormuz disruption - a session split between tech optimism and geopolitical risk.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>S&P 500:</strong> Closed Monday at 7,412.84 (+0.19%), a record close, though breadth was notably thin - only 37.8% of US issues advanced, with gains concentrated in semiconductors and hardware names.</li> <li><strong>Nasdaq 100:</strong> Added 0.29% to 29,320.66, with technology the clear session leader.</li> <li><strong>Russell 2000:</strong> Rose 0.33% to 2,870.64, outpacing both large-cap indices - consistent with smaller, domestically focused companies responding more directly to shifts in the trade outlook.</li> <li><strong>Energy:</strong> WTI crude oil settled near $98 per barrel on Monday, up more than 2% on the session, as Trump rejected Iran’s latest overture and Saudi Aramco warned of sustained Hormuz supply losses running at approximately 100 million barrels per week.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Neutral/Chop - VIX 18.4, 20-day realised vol 10.2% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.84% above its 50-day moving average.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p><em>The VIX term structure is pricing one specific event with unusual surgical precision - and the flow data confirms traders are already defensively positioned.</em></p> <p>VIX closed Monday at 18.38 (+6.92%), an unusual divergence from equities - traders were building hedges even as indices rallied to records. The vol term structure makes that hedging activity strikingly precise: the 1-day VIX (VIX1D) fell 9.3% to 11.52, while the 9-day VIX (VIX9D) surged 18.9% to 16.89, producing a sharp kink in the curve that spans almost exactly the May 14–15 summit window. The options market is not broadly fearful; it is specifically fearful of a well-defined event in four days. The VIX3M/VIX ratio - which compares three-month implied volatility to the near-term spot level - fell 3.1% to 1.16, confirming that near-term volatility is rising faster than longer-dated expectations: the term structure is flattening urgently, not gradually. The CBOE SKEW index (SKEW), which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, rose to 140.21 (+1.45%), and the CBOE S&P 500 index put/call ratio (PCCI) spiked 12.0% to 1.154 - protective put buying is the dominant flow theme, consistent with the Iran-crowded summit agenda raising the probability that markets receive less trade clarity than hoped for. Front-month VIX futures are trading at 21.05, nearly three points above spot VIX, reflecting structural demand for near-term vol that shows no sign of unwinding ahead of the summit.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Put spread over outright put.</strong> SKEW at 140 means that deep out-of-the-money downside protection carries a steep premium - outright put buyers are paying significantly above the cost of equivalent protection at a more moderate distance from spot. A put spread - buying a put at one strike and simultaneously selling a put at a lower strike - delivers comparable downside coverage at considerably lower net cost by recycling some of that elevated put premium back into the structure. With the summit agenda complicated by Iran, the downside scenario (less trade progress than expected, or diplomatic friction) carries real probability, and a put spread is the cost-efficient way to hedge it without overpaying for tail protection that may not materialise. <em>The maximum loss is the net premium paid - the full cost of protection if markets continue higher and the spread expires unexercised.</em></p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – IWM call spread for a summit upside surprise.</strong> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks domestically focused US small-cap companies, is more sensitive to trade conditions than large-cap indices - its 0.33% outperformance on Monday reflects that sensitivity. With the PCCI elevated and the options market already defensively positioned, the summit’s risk-reward is asymmetric in an interesting direction: a disappointing outcome is already substantially priced in through elevated put-to-call ratios, which means any positive surprise - meaningful progress on the tariff framework or a formal “Board of Trade” agreement - would likely produce an outsized move higher in trade-sensitive names like IWM. Buying a call spread on IWM - purchasing a call at or near the current level and selling a call at a higher strike - positions for that asymmetric upside at defined and relatively low cost, without requiring conviction on an outcome no one can predict. <em>The maximum loss is the net premium paid if IWM fails to rally beyond the lower strike before expiry.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Monday printed record closes on thin breadth and late-day oil headwinds - a session that told two different stories at the index and market-structure level simultaneously. The options market is responding with surgical precision: VIX1D quiet, VIX9D sharply elevated, SKEW at 140, PCCI spiking. The summit in four days is the event, and with Iran now competing for the agenda, the probability of a clean, trade-focused outcome has diminished. Heading into today’s open, the combination of a put spread for downside and an IWM call spread for upside surprise captures the asymmetry without requiring a directional call on a summit no one can fully predict.</p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---jobs-beat-oil-surge---11-may-2026-11052026" data-id="D7896B98DE1944EA8D0D320162C960FD" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-waits-puts-surge---8-may-2026-08052026" data-id="B92366C064964B6DBA0035F015F4B7D1" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran waits puts surge - 8 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---amd-blowout-vol-unmoved---7-may-2026-07052026" data-id="568BFAE569164C5FBBAA4D1FFDB69D49" data-type="Article">Options Brief - 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Big Tech divides oil surges - 30 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Cerebras IPO: the dinner-plate chip testing Wall Street’s AI appetite</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Cerebras is testing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure</strong> beyond Nvidia’s dominant graphics processing units.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>The company’s pitch is speed:</strong> faster artificial intelligence answers, not just bigger model training.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>The main risks are</strong> valuation, customer concentration and turning huge demand into durable profits.</span></span></p> </span></p> <span> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Artificial intelligence has spent the past few years eating capital, electricity and investor attention. Now the next question is simpler: can it answer faster, cheaper and at scale?</span></p> <p><span> <p data-start="0" data-end="362">That is the promise behind Cerebras Systems, the artificial intelligence (AI) chip company preparing for one of the year’s most watched initial public offerings (IPO). According to Bloomberg, citing Reuters sources, investor demand appears strong enough that Cerebras is considering both a higher price range and a larger share sale.</p> <p data-start="364" data-end="842">In plain English, the market may already be willing to pay more before the stock has even started trading. The reported price range could rise to 150 to 160 USD per share, from 115 to 125 USD, while the offering could increase to 30 million shares. At the top end, Cerebras could raise about 4.8 billion USD ahead of its expected pricing on 13 May 2026. That makes the IPO not just a company event, but a useful temperature check for the market’s appetite for AI infrastructure.</p> </span></p> <p><span>That is not a quiet debut. It is more like entering a library with a marching band. </span><span >For long-term investors, the Cerebras IPO is not only about one company. It is a test of how much the market is willing to pay for the next layer of AI infrastructure. It also shows that the AI race is widening from one dominant chip supplier into a more complex ecosystem of chips, cloud platforms, power, cooling and specialised hardware.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From training the brain to serving the coffee</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Cerebras builds chips and systems for artificial intelligence workloads. Its flagship design is different from the standard graphics processing unit (GPU), the type of chip Nvidia has made famous. Cerebras uses wafer-scale chips, which are much larger and designed to keep more computing, memory and data movement close together.</span></p> <p><span>The simple idea is this: less waiting, more answering. </span><span >That matters because AI is shifting from training to inference. Training is when a model learns from huge amounts of data. Inference is when that model actually responds to a user. Every chatbot answer, coding suggestion, voice response or AI agent task needs inference. It is the practical side of AI, where the bill arrives every time someone asks a question.</span></p> <p><span>Cerebras says its Wafer-Scale Engine 3 can deliver inference up to 15 times faster than leading GPU-based systems on some benchmarked models. Investors should treat company benchmarks with care, but the direction is clear. Speed is becoming a selling point, especially as companies try to build AI products that feel instant rather than “please wait while the future loads”.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean Cerebras is replacing Nvidia everywhere. Nvidia has a broad hardware and software ecosystem, deep customer relationships and a scale advantage that is difficult to copy. But the Cerebras IPO shows that customers want different tools for different jobs. AI may not be a one-chip kingdom forever.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Wall Street loves a scarce shovel</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The reported demand for Cerebras shares is the market reaction before the stock even starts trading. Reuters said orders for the IPO were more than 20 times the available shares. If completed on the reported terms, it could become the world’s largest IPO so far in 2026. </span><span >That tells us two things.</span></p> <p><span>First, investors remain hungry for AI infrastructure. The public market already has many ways to buy the AI story, from Nvidia to cloud companies and semiconductor equipment makers. But there are fewer pure-play AI chip IPOs. Scarcity can make investors behave like diners who see the last dessert on the menu.</span></p> <p><span>Second, the valuation bar is high. Cerebras reported revenue of 510 million USD in 2025, up strongly from 2024. But it is still building scale, and operating losses remain a concern. A fast-growing company can justify a high valuation, but only if revenue turns into cash flow over time. Backlog is useful. Booked demand is useful. Actual profitable delivery is better.</span></p> <p><span>This is where OpenAI and Amazon matter. OpenAI agreed in January 2026 to add 750 megawatts of low-latency Cerebras compute through 2028. Amazon Web Services also announced a partnership in March 2026 to offer Cerebras chips in its cloud infrastructure. These are serious customers, not hobbyists testing a new gadget in the garage.</span></p> <p><span>Still, customer concentration remains a key issue. Cerebras has relied heavily on a small number of large customers, including customers linked to the United Arab Emirates. New contracts may reduce that risk, but investors need proof over time.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bigger lesson: ecosystem over icon</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Cerebras story fits a broader theme in AI investing: the winners may not sit in one neat basket. </span><span >AI needs chips, memory, networking, cloud platforms, data centres, electricity and cooling. It also needs software that customers actually use. That creates opportunities across the value chain, but also more ways for expectations to outrun reality.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the useful point is not to find “the next Nvidia” as if markets hand out sequel tickets. It is to understand which part of the AI buildout a company serves. Nvidia remains central to training and many inference workloads. Cerebras wants to own a specialised slice where speed and low latency matter most. Amazon wants more control over cloud economics. OpenAI wants more compute options. Everyone wants fewer bottlenecks.</span></p> <p><span>That makes Cerebras a signal. It suggests AI infrastructure demand is still strong, but also that the market is beginning to separate different workloads, different chips and different business models.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is valuation. A hot IPO can price in years of success before public investors get a normal trading day. If expectations start in the clouds, even a small disappointment can feel like bad weather.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is execution. Cerebras must deliver complex systems, expand capacity, support large customers and prove that its performance advantage works outside controlled benchmarks. Watch for delays in Amazon’s rollout, slower OpenAI deployment or weak conversion of backlog into revenue.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is concentration and regulation. A few large customers can lift growth quickly, but they can also create sharp drops if contracts change. National security scrutiny previously affected Cerebras’ IPO path, so investors should not ignore geopolitics. Chips are tiny, but the politics around them are not.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Treat the IPO as a signal about AI infrastructure demand,</strong> not a guarantee of returns. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch backlog conversion, operating losses and customer mix</strong> after listing. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare Cerebras with the full AI supply chain</strong>, not only Nvidia. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Keep position sizing tied to uncertainty</strong>, especially after any first-day surge.<br /> </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The AI race gets more lanes</span></strong></h3> <p data-start="52" data-end="73"><span>Cerebras is arriving at a useful moment. The AI story is moving from “who trains the biggest model?” to “who makes AI fast, cheap and reliable enough to use every day?” That is a healthier and more practical question for investors. The company’s dinner-plate chip may capture imaginations, but the real test is less photogenic: revenue quality, customer diversity, margins and execution. <br /> <br /> The IPO may be loud, and perhaps deservedly so. But long-term investors do not need to catch every shiny object as it flies past. Sometimes the smarter move is to watch what the market is really telling us: the AI race is still running, but the track now has more lanes.</span></p> <p><em ><br /> This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <span> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p> <p> </p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>IPO</span> <span>Initial Public Offering (IPO)</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 12 May 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 06:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 12 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US edged higher on AI optimism, Europe lagged on oil and luxury weakness, Asia rose as Korea’s chip rally widened.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX firmer, oil and CPI in focus, downside hedging persists</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin steady above USD 81k, ETF flows mixed, crypto equities outperform</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> Global bond yields rise ahead of US CPI release.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> USD up, JPY down ahead of US CPI as yield rise. Sterling eyes shaky Starmer government</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil remains bid, silver surges on fresh momentum buying, copper hits record high</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> Germany ZEW Survey, US April CPI, US Treasury to auction 10-year Notes</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Kevin Warsh’s Fed Board nomination cleared an initial Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote</strong>, with a final confirmation vote to succeed Jerome Powell as chair expected later this week.</li> <li><strong>Trump warned the US–Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s proposal</strong>, raising fears Hormuz will stay effectively closed, as Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade and some sanctions relief. Trump is weighing renewed military action and vessel escorts, while Saudi Aramco’s CEO says weekly losses of about 100 million barrels could delay market normalization into next year.</li> <li><strong>UK Prime Minister is under significant Labour party pressure to resign </strong>and will hold a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning that is seen as possibly pivotal for his government’s future.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s household spending fell 2.9% y/y in March 2026</strong>, a fourth consecutive drop and worse than the expected 1.3% decline, with broad weakness across food, utilities, clothing, and transport. Spending on housing, household goods, healthcare, and education rose, but overall outlays fell 1.3% m/m, reversing February’s 1.5% gain.</li> <li><strong>US existing home sales ticked up 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate in April 2026, below the 4.05 million forecast, as higher mortgage rates weighed</strong>. Sales fell in the West but rose in the Midwest, while inventory increased 5.8% to 1.47 million (4.4 months’ supply). The NAR cited improved affordability as incomes outpaced home price gains.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> · 0600 – Germany April Final CPI<br /> · 0900 – Germany May ZEW Survey<br /> · 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending Apr 25)<br /> · 1230 – US April CPI<br /> · 1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)<br /> · 1700 – US to Sell USD 42 Billion 10-year Notes<br /> · 0130 – Australia Q1 Wage Price Index </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings this week</strong></h4> <ul> <li> <div><strong>Monday (yesterday)</strong>: Petrobras, Constellation Energy, AST SpaceMobile</div> </li> <li> <div><span ><strong>Tuesday (today)</strong>: Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software</span></div> </li> <li> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group</span></div> </li> <li> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings</span></div> </li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% and the Dow gained 0.2%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh records. Chipmakers led as AI optimism again beat geopolitical nerves, despite higher oil prices after Trump rejected Iran’s response to his peace proposal. Nvidia rose 2% on continued AI demand, Qualcomm jumped 8.4% on chip momentum, Micron gained 6.5% on tighter memory supply expectations, and Tesla added 3.9% as appetite for megacap growth stayed firm. Markets now watch oil, inflation data and the Trump-Xi meeting.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.3% to 5,895.45, while the STOXX 600 was slightly up to around 613, as Middle East risks and disrupted energy exports kept investors cautious. Luxury led the weakness, with LVMH down 4.4%, Hermès off 3.3% and L’Oréal down about 2.6% as investors worried about weaker discretionary demand and pressure from higher energy costs. Industrial names offered some balance, with Schneider Electric up 2.3% and Siemens gaining 1.4% ahead of earnings. Europe’s main test remains simple: can earnings hold if oil keeps behaving like an unpaid intern with access to the red button?</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian stocks rose, led by South Korea, where the Kospi jumped 4.3% to a record 7,822.24 as AI memory demand continued to drive a powerful chip rally. SK Hynix surged 11.5% and Samsung Electronics gained 6.3% on tighter memory supply expectations and strong demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was little changed at 26,406.84, helped by HSBC up 1.8%, while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.1% to 4,225.02, its highest since 2015. The region’s next focus is whether the AI rally broadens or stays concentrated in chips.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility remains contained, but markets are no longer fully relaxed</strong>. The <strong>VIX closed at 18.38</strong> on 11 May, while shorter-dated volatility signals stayed elevated, with VIX9D rising 18.9% as investors positioned for a potentially more volatile week ahead. The main drivers remain rising oil prices near USD 105, fragile US-Iran negotiations, today’s US CPI release, and a US 10-year Treasury auction that could influence yields and equity valuations.</li> <li>Based on SPX options pricing, the<strong> expected move into the 15 May expiry is around 86.8 points, or 1.17%</strong>, from an SPX level near 7,412.84. </li> <li>For today’s expiry, the implied move is about 36.9 points, or 0.50%. <strong>Today’s 0DTE positioning also shows a defensive tone beneath the surface</strong>: near-the-money puts continue to trade at higher implied volatility than equivalent calls around the 7,410–7,415 strikes, suggesting investors are still paying a premium for short-term downside protection despite equities remaining near record highs.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crypto markets are stable but cautious ahead of today’s US inflation data and ongoing Middle East tensions</strong>. <strong>Bitcoin </strong>is trading <strong>near USD 81,200</strong> after briefly moving above USD 82,000 over the weekend, while <strong>Ethereum </strong>is softer<strong> near USD 2,310</strong>. XRP and Solana are slightly lower on the day, reflecting a broader wait-and-see tone across risk assets rather than outright risk aversion.</li> <li><strong>IBIT remains the key institutional sentiment gauge</strong>. BlackRock reported approximately USD 67.3bn in IBIT net assets as of 11 May, although Farside data showed a modest USD 7.4mn outflow from the ETF on the same day, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted USD 27.2mn in net inflows. ETHA was steadier, trading around USD 17.67, while Ethereum ETFs overall saw USD 17.0mn of net outflows, partially offset by a USD 2.1mn inflow into ETHA.</li> <li>Meanwhile, <strong>crypto-linked equities including COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT and CRCL outperformed underlying cryptocurrencies</strong>, suggesting investors continue to favour listed crypto exposure when market sentiment improves.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries continued to weaken, sending yields to their highest levels in a week</strong> ahead of today’s US April CPI release, seen as a possible catalyst for the forward view of Fed policy. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose almost seven basis points to 3.95% Monday and nudged above 3.96% in early trading Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose about six basis points in total since Friday’s close to trade above 4.42%. The highest daily close for the 2-year benchmark since the Iran war reset inflation expectations higher is above 3.98% as 4% is an obvious focus. For the 10-year yield, the highest daily close is just below 4.44%.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yields remain under pressure, steepening the yield curve and sending the 10-year JGB yield to a new cycle high</strong>. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose less than a basis point Tuesday, but looks to close the day just south of 1.40%, the highest level since mid-April, where the intraday high-water mark is 1.417%. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield, meanwhile, rose another 2.5 basis points and as high as 2.55% Tuesday, the highest level since the 1990’s as traders fret inflationary risks and a subdued BoJ policy response function to those risks.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil prices climbed for a second day</strong> as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over. Attention this week will also turn to the monthly market outlooks from the three major oil forecasting agencies, starting today with the EIA, followed by OPEC and the IEA on Wednesday.</li> <li><strong>Silver jumped to a two-month high on Monday</strong>, rising more than 7% as technical signals triggered fresh buying from hedge funds and other momentum focused investors. With gold struggling to keep pace following Modi’s call for a pause in gold buying, the gold-silver ratio slumped to 55, the lowest since 1 March. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,757, was challenged and rejected during the Asian session.</li> <li><strong>Copper in NY and London recorded their highest ever closing prices on Monday</strong>, with HG copper trading just below the January all-time high at USD 6.583 per pound, as the key transition metal continued to enjoy strong demand, especially from China where visible stocks have declined sharply in recent weeks. Combined with an increasingly challenging supply outlook, partly linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, traders have largely shrugged off the potential economic demand impact from the war.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar traded firmer early Tuesday as higher global bond yields and the latest rally in crude oil prices was sustained.</strong> <strong>EURUSD </strong>drifted back to 1.1755 from above 1.1780 and the more rate-sensitive <strong>USDJPY </strong>rose above 157.70, closing in on the 158.00 area, which is the highest level seen since the dramatic official Japanese intervention began on April 30.</li> <li><strong>Sterling saw a choppy session Monday and ended Monday slightly weaker </strong>as traders eye the potential end of Starmer’s government, wondering what comes next. <strong>EURGBP </strong>rose to a new high for the month above 0.8660 early Tuesday.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>From GPU to CPU: How AI boom is reviving old tech</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 05:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>AI is reshaping the technology landscape beyond the most visible GPU winners.</p> </li> <li> <p>The next phase is less about training models alone and more about running AI continuously across search, coding, customer service, enterprise workflows and agents.</p> </li> <li> <p>That shift is bringing older technology categories back into focus: CPUs, memory, storage, servers, networking, optical components and analog chips.</p> </li> <li> <p>For investors, the question is not only “who makes the AI chip?” but also “who supports the full AI operating system around it?”</p> </li> <li> <p>The risks are still important: many of these are cyclical hardware markets, and some stocks may already reflect high AI expectations.</p> </li> </ul> <p><hr /> </p> <h2>AI is changing the technology stack</h2> <p>The first phase of the AI trade was dominated by GPUs. That made sense. Training large AI models requires huge amounts of parallel processing power, and GPUs became the most visible bottleneck.</p> <p>But AI is now moving from <strong>training</strong> to <strong>deployment</strong>. It is being embedded into daily workflows: search, software development, customer service, productivity tools, finance, healthcare, industrial systems and AI agents. That means AI needs to be available all the time, process more queries, store more data, retrieve more context and move information quickly between systems. The hardware requirement therefore expands beyond the accelerator itself into more compute capacity, memory, storage space, servers and connectivity.</p> <p>That changes what matters in technology. AI does not run on GPUs alone. It needs a full hardware and data stack around it:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>GPUs</strong> to accelerate AI workloads.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>CPUs</strong> to coordinate tasks and manage system-level work.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Memory</strong> to keep data close to compute.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Storage</strong> to hold the data, logs and history.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Servers</strong> to package and deploy the hardware.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Networking and optical links</strong> to move data between systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Analog and embedded chips</strong> to manage power, signals and control functions.</p> </li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Chart: A Morgan Stanley Index that represents an equal notional pair trade of going longa New Tech index and short the Old Tech index. Source: Bloomberg</h4> <p></p> <p>This is how AI is changing the tech landscape. The market is starting to look beyond the headline AI winners and into the older hardware categories that make AI usable at scale.</p> <h2>What is coming back?</h2> <h3>1. CPUs: coordination becomes more important</h3> <p>GPUs are critical for AI acceleration, but CPUs still handle much of the system-level work around AI. They help with data loading, scheduling, input/output, databases, retrieval systems, orchestration and multi-step workflows.</p> <p>This becomes more important as AI shifts from model training to always-on usage. A chatbot, coding assistant or AI agent has to retrieve information, check context, call tools, manage memory and respond repeatedly. That creates more demand for general-purpose compute around the GPU layer.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Intel, AMD, Arm.</p> <h3>2. Storage: AI needs more data capacity</h3> <p>AI creates and reuses large amounts of data. Training datasets, inference logs, enterprise data lakes, vector databases, customer records, search indexes, model outputs and compliance archives all need to be stored and retrieved.</p> <p>This brings hard drives, flash storage and enterprise storage back into focus. Hard drives still matter for large-scale cloud storage, while flash storage is important where speed and latency matter.</p> <p>There is also a consumer-device angle. If more AI features run locally on PCs, compact desktops and workstations, memory and storage intensity can rise outside the data centre too. Apple’s Mac mini and Mac Studio availability issues are a useful signal of how broader memory constraints can spill into consumer hardware. Apple is not a pure storage play, but the signal matters.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Seagate, Western Digital, Sandisk, NetApp, Apple.</p> <h3>3. Memory: the bridge between compute and storage</h3> <p>Memory is becoming one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI hardware demand. Larger models, longer context windows and persistent AI workflows require more high-bandwidth memory, DRAM and NAND.</p> <p>High-bandwidth memory has already become a key bottleneck for AI accelerators. But broader memory demand also matters as AI inference scales and more applications become AI-enabled.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Micron, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix.</p> <h3>4. Servers: the old data centre is being rebuilt</h3> <p>AI does not eliminate traditional servers. It can increase the need for them.</p> <p>Specialised AI servers are required for GPU-heavy workloads, but enterprises also need servers for databases, storage management, inference support, hybrid infrastructure and general workloads around AI deployment.</p> <p>This is why traditional enterprise hardware providers are back on investor watchlists. The question is whether AI creates a durable server refresh cycle, not just a one-off demand spike.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, IBM, Lenovo.</p> <h3>5. Optical components and networking: data has to move faster</h3> <p>As AI workloads scale, data has to move quickly between servers, storage systems and compute clusters. This supports demand for optical components, fibre, switches, routers and high-speed networking.</p> <p>Optical links are particularly important because AI workloads require fast, low-latency data movement. Networking companies also matter because AI deployment requires efficient connections across enterprise systems, data centres and cloud infrastructure.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Lumentum, Coherent, Ciena, Corning, Applied Optoelectronics, Cisco, Juniper Networks, Nokia, HPE.</p> <h3>6. Analog and embedded chips: the control layer</h3> <p>AI hardware still needs chips that manage power, signals and control functions. This is where analog and embedded semiconductor companies become relevant.</p> <p>These are not the most visible AI names, but they sit inside servers, industrial systems, data-centre hardware, autos and connected devices. As AI spreads into more physical systems, the need for power management, sensors, signal conversion and embedded control can rise.</p> <p><strong>Companies to monitor:</strong> Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Onsemi, Microchip Technology, NXP.</p> <h2>Summary watchlist</h2> <p>This is not a recommendation list. It is a framework for monitoring where AI demand may broaden into older technology categories.</p> <br /> <br /> <h2 data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Risks</h2> <p>The key risk is that investors take a real theme and stretch it too far.</p> <p>AI may support demand for CPUs, storage, memory, servers, optical components and networking, but many of these are still cyclical hardware markets. Demand can be lumpy, supply can catch up, pricing can reverse and customers can pause spending if AI monetisation disappoints.</p> <p>Key risks include:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p><strong>Slower AI capex:</strong> hyperscalers may reduce or delay spending after a heavy investment cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Delayed enterprise adoption:</strong> companies may take longer to deploy AI at scale than markets expect.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Supply response:</strong> memory, storage or server supply could catch up, reducing pricing power.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Margin pressure:</strong> revenue growth may not translate into stronger profits if competition or input costs rise.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Technology substitution:</strong> custom chips or specialised architectures could reduce demand for some traditional components.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Valuation risk:</strong> many stocks linked to AI hardware have already moved sharply.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Bottom line</h2> <p>AI is changing the tech landscape by expanding the opportunity beyond GPUs. As AI moves from training to everyday deployment, the demand base may broaden into CPUs, storage, memory, servers, optical components, networking and analog chips.</p> <p>For investors, this is a more practical way to think about the next phase of AI: not only which companies build the AI models, but which companies support the hardware and data stack that keeps AI running.</p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Intel Corp</span> <span>Intel Corp.</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span> <span>Dell</span> <span>Cisco Systems</span> <span>Cisco Systems Inc.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 12 May, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 12 May 2026 01:21:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US–Iran ceasefire on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s plan</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>S&P 500 and NASDAQ close at record highs</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Yuan rose past 6.80 onshore and offshore, strongest since Feb 2023</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Silver surged over 7%; WTI near $100</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>US Treasuries extended losses; UK gilts tumbled</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Kevin Warsh’s Fed Board nomination cleared an initial Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote, with a final confirmation vote to succeed Jerome Powell as chair expected later this week.</span></li> <li><span>Trump warned the US–Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s proposal, raising fears Hormuz will stay effectively closed, as Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade and some sanctions relief. Trump is weighing renewed military action and vessel escorts, while Saudi Aramco’s CEO says weekly losses of about 100 million barrels could delay market normalization into next year.</span></li> <li><span>Japan’s household spending fell 2.9% y/y in March 2026, a fourth consecutive drop and worse than the expected 1.3% decline, with broad weakness across food, utilities, clothing, and transport. Spending on housing, household goods, healthcare, and education rose, but overall outlays fell 1.3% m/m, reversing February’s 1.5% gain.</span></li> <li><span>US existing home sales ticked up 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate in April 2026, below the 4.05 million forecast, as higher mortgage rates weighed. Sales fell in the West but rose in the Midwest, while inventory increased 5.8% to 1.47 million (4.4 months’ supply). The NAR cited improved affordability as incomes outpaced home price gains.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US - </span></strong></span><span>US stocks rose Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.1% to new record highs, led by chipmakers on AI optimism. The Dow gained 95 points. Nvidia rose 2%, Tesla 3.9%, Qualcomm 8.4%, AMD 0.8%, and Micron 6.5% on expectations of tighter memory supply. Energy, materials, and industrials also advanced, despite higher oil prices after Trump rejected Iran’s response to his proposal and ahead of a Trump–Xi summit later this week.</span></li> <li><strong>EU </strong>- European stocks fell for a third session Monday as Middle East war risks and supply disruptions weighed on sentiment. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 slipped 0.3% to 5,895 and the STOXX 600 was flat. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s counteroffer escalated rhetoric and extended the halt in regional energy exports. Consumer discretionary and Paris-listed luxury names led losses, with LVMH down over 4% and Hermès and L’Oréal off about 3%, while Schneider Electric rose 2.3% and Siemens gained 1.4% ahead of earnings.</li> <li><strong>Asia </strong>- Asian stocks rose Monday, led by South Korea as AI demand drove a tech surge. The Kospi jumped 4.3% to a record 7,822.24, with SK Hynix up 11.5% and Samsung also strong. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was little changed at 26,406.84, with HSBC up 1.8%. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.7% to its highest since 2015, and the STAR 50 rose as much as 5.1% to a record. Shenzhen LDROBOT soared up to 150% on its Hong Kong debut, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index saw modest moves, tracking global chip momentum.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Tuesday: </span></strong></span><span>Oklo, Sea limited, Oncloud, JD.com, </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Wednesday: </span></strong></span><span>Alibaba, Tencent, Cisco, SoftBank Group</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Thursday</span></strong></span><span>: Applied materials, Honda</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The Japanese <strong>yen </strong>became the worst performing G10 currency year-to-date, down 0.25% against the US dollar and trading at 157.11 to the US currency. The dollar gained 0.35% to 157.22 yen on Monday, the largest one-day percentage gain since Tuesday, May 5, 2026. US Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama in Tokyo on Tuesday.</span></li> <li><span>The Chinese <strong>yuan </strong>strengthened above 6.8 against the dollar both onshore and offshore, trading at the highest level since February 2023 in the run up to President Trump's China visit. USD/CNY slipped 0.1% to 6.7959, while USD/CNH fell 0.1% to 6.7933. Goldman Sachs said the yuan is more than 20% undervalued against the US dollar and raised its forecasts to 6.80 in three months, 6.70 in six months and 6.50 in a year.</span></li> <li><span>The British <strong>pound </strong>erased gains in the New York afternoon session, declining a second day in three amid growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>euro </strong>looks poised to fall as downside risks to the euro-area economy continue to mount. Economists have already cut their growth forecast for the bloc this year and look to have underestimated the negative economic impact of the war in Iran. The Bloomberg Economics Growth Data Surprise Index fell to the lowest since Covid-19 earlier this month.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Oil</span></strong><span> prices rose on Monday after President Trump said the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is close to unraveling, prolonging the effective closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures advanced 2.9% to settle near $104 a barrel, the highest in almost a week, while WTI climbed 2.8% to around $98 a barrel. Trump is reportedly meeting with his national security team to discuss next steps in the Middle East conflict, including possibly resuming military action.</span></li> <li><span>The CBOE <strong>Silver </strong>ETF Volatility Index of expected volatility in silver rose 20%, the most since January 26, as the underlying benchmark advanced 0.4%. The Silver VIX was up 11.19 to 67.83, a move of at least two standard deviations. Silver jumped over 7% as technical signals drew fresh buying from hedge funds and other leveraged investors.</span></li> <li><span>Top-20 brokers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered aggregate net-short positions of 43,859 <strong>copper </strong>contracts across front seven months on Monday, the highest since April 7, 2026. Copper net-short positions in the most active June contract stood at 13,244.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasuries</span></strong><span> extended losses on Monday, falling to session lows after a weak 3-year note auction produced soft demand metrics ahead of 10- and 30-year new-issue sales over the next two days. The 10-year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4.41%, while the 30-year yield rose 4.8 basis points to 4.986%, the second highest this year. The US Treasury sold $58 billion in three-year notes at a yield of 3.965%, the highest result since June, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.</span></li> <li><span>Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are the latest in a growing cohort of Wall Street banks pushing back their forecasts for interest-rate cuts, arguing that both jobs and inflation data make a case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold until at least the end of the year. Traders are increasing bets that the Fed will keep policy on hold through 2026 and may even hike in early 2027.</span></li> <li><strong><span>UK gilts </span></strong><span>tumbled on Monday amid pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to lay out a timetable for his departure. US bonds outperformed gilts during the session. A heavy corporate new-issue slate was also a factor weighing on Treasuries.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Trump-Xi summit an historical moment. Also, an exquisitely timed IPO on deck.</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 11:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A potential geopolitical pivot point this week.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/trump-xi-summit-an-historical-moment-also-an-exquisitely-timed-ipo-on-deck/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.<br /> <br /> </h4> <h4><span>Links discussed on today's show:</span></h4> <p> <ul> <li>Been reading <span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chokepoints" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chokepoints</a></span> as I have previously noted - a critical book for understanding the leverage that economic (and financial) chokepoints provide, and an important work in light of the heavily intertwined US and Chinese economies.</li> <li>An excellent Deutsche research piece on <span><a href="https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000625515&rwnode=REPORT" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the "return of history" as gold is set to become a potentially dominant presence in global central bank reserves</a></span>.</li> <li>And as noted,<span> <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/63221240-back-mechanic" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Back Mechanic</a></span>, a book kindly recommended to me by a podcast listener on getting your back in shape and avoiding the kind of trauma I am currently suffering with a herniated disk. </li> </ul> </p> <span ></span> <span ></span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Jobs beat, oil surge - 11 May 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Friday’s session was one of those days that tests how you think about markets. A jobs report that nearly doubled forecasts. WTI crude crossing $100 on US-Iran military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz. US equities printing all-time highs. European markets down over 1 percent. All on the same day. Beneath the surface, call options volumes have been surging for weeks, leaving market makers short gamma ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief – Jobs beat, oil surge – 11 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A stronger-than-expected jobs report and fresh US-Iran exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz collide on the same Friday — setting up a divergent open for Monday.</em></p> <p>Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls came in at 115,000 — nearly double the 62,000 consensus — driving US equities to record closes and confirming that the labour market remains resilient. At the same time, fresh US-Iran military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz pushed WTI crude above $100, left European indices sharply lower, and set up a divergent open this morning.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p><em>US equities at records, oil surging, Europe in the red — a clean divergence between a labour-market rally and a geopolitical supply shock.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US equities:</strong> The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 (+0.84%) and the Nasdaq 100 at 29,234.99 (+2.35%), both new all-time highs, with the technology sector the clear leader — Micron extended a multi-session surge and Intel rallied on reports of a preliminary chip-manufacturing deal with Apple.</li> <li><strong>Energy:</strong> WTI crude oil futures settled at $100.09 (+4.89%) and Brent crude at $105.66 (+4.31%), as renewed clashes near the Strait of Hormuz rekindled acute supply disruption concerns.</li> <li><strong>European indices:</strong> The DAX fell 1.32% and the Euro Stoxx 50 shed 1.02%, a clear illustration of how an oil shock weighs more heavily on the continent than on the US.</li> <li><strong>Rates & dollar:</strong> The US dollar index (DXY) eased 0.42% to 97.84, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.39%.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> LOW VOL BULL — VIX 17.19, 20-day realised vol 10.4% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.80% above its 50-day moving average.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p><em>VIX ticks higher despite record closes, SKEW climbs to 138, and call-volume-driven dealer gamma creates a structural unwind risk beneath the surface.</em></p> <p>VIX closed at 17.19, a modest tick higher (+0.64%) despite the equity rally — a quiet signal that institutional hedgers are not standing down even as indices print records. The CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, rose to 138.21 (+1.54%), confirming elevated tail-risk demand beneath the surface. The VVIX — the volatility of the VIX itself, measuring how much the fear gauge is expected to move — gained 3.39% to 96.78, a notable signal that the market does not believe the current calm is permanent. Index-level put/call ratios dropped sharply on the day — the CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX) fell 4.17% to 1.15 — reflecting genuine equity buying, though readings above 1.0 still indicate net defensive positioning persists at the index level.</p> <p>A structural consideration beneath Friday’s surface calm deserves attention. Call options volumes have surged over recent weeks, leaving market makers with significant short-gamma exposure — meaning they must continuously buy the underlying as markets rise and sell as they fall to remain delta-neutral. This pro-cyclical dynamic has amplified the rally, but it also creates the conditions for an abrupt reversal once that hedging unwinds. Likely de-hedging watch points include the May monthly options expiry, NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings, and month-end portfolio rebalancing by fund managers — any of which could trigger a simultaneous unwind of dealer hedge positions and a rapid repricing of volatility.</p> <p><strong>Important note</strong>: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.<br /> <br /> <strong>Strategy insight</strong> <strong>– Energy risk reversals</strong>. With WTI above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz conflict unresolved, downside put premiums in energy-sector options are elevated — the market is pricing a genuine supply disruption into the put side. A bullish risk reversal — selling an out-of-the-money put at the inflated premium and using those proceeds to buy an out-of-the-money call — can establish upside exposure in energy names at minimal or zero net cost. Selling the expensive downside wing to fund the cheaper upside wing is structurally well suited to this environment: you are capturing the geopolitical risk premium while still participating if crude continues higher. <em>The main risk is the short put: if energy prices fall sharply on a diplomatic resolution, losses on the put leg can exceed the call premium collected.</em></p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Protective puts while the window is open.</strong> VIX at 17 sits below its long-run average, making this a relatively low-cost moment to add portfolio protection — and the dealer short-gamma dynamic described above makes the timing more pressing than usual. A put spread on a broad index — buying one put and selling a lower-strike put to offset some of the cost — delivers defined downside protection at a lower outlay than an outright put purchase. With SKEW at 138 and VVIX rising, the market itself is signalling that the benign vol surface may not last; building that protection now, rather than waiting until VIX reprices toward 25 and insurance becomes expensive, is the more disciplined approach. <em>The maximum loss on the put spread is the net premium paid — the full cost of protection if markets continue higher and the spread expires unexercised.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Friday delivered two simultaneous signals: US economic resilience is intact, and the Strait of Hormuz conflict is not resolved. Heading into Monday, US futures are roughly flat, European futures are under modest pressure, and Korea’s market is hitting fresh records on continued AI-chip demand — a telling global divergence. The regime is LOW VOL BULL, but SKEW and VVIX are both climbing, dealer gamma is elevated, and volatility could reprice quickly; use the current cost-of-vol environment to build exposure and protection, not to sell premium.</p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-waits-puts-surge---8-may-2026-08052026" data-id="B92366C064964B6DBA0035F015F4B7D1" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran waits puts surge - 8 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---amd-blowout-vol-unmoved---7-may-2026-07052026" data-id="568BFAE569164C5FBBAA4D1FFDB69D49" data-type="Article">Options Brief - AMD blowout vol unmoved - 7 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-retreats-records-set---6-may-2026-06052026" data-id="8C57E8877E3E4D53955D44C888428275" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil retreats records set - 6 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---ceasefire-cracks-kospi-soars---5-may-2026-05052026" data-id="D4B279186C2A47FC8083292FA822E86C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---big-tech-divides-oil-surges---30-april-2026-30042026" data-id="9076C52B7D3E4A398EE5B8A960763F98" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Big Tech divides oil surges - 30 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-night-fed-holds---29-april-2026-29042026" data-id="E829D7CC98414B4EB9EE8FB3C5E9C259" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings night Fed holds - 29 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Record crop longs signal major agriculture rotation</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 5 May 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 5 May 2026.</span></li> <li>In fx, speculators continued to reduce bullish USD bets, primarily driven by short covering in JPY and CAD </li> <li>In commodities, selling into strength was seen in Brent through a rise in the gross short, while gold weakness prompted some short covering without prompting fresh bearish bets.</li> <li>The standout developments were across agriculture where broad rallies across grains, softs and livestock drove bullish positioning to a multi-year high led by <span>corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton, and cattle</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Forex:</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="374" data-end="775"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Following the March surge, which lifted DXY to a 10-month high and the gross USD long versus eight IMM futures to a 14-month high of USD 17.6 billion, speculators turned sellers in April, a trend that extended into May. In the latest reporting week to 5 May, the gross long was cut by a further 37% to USD 7.6 billion, despite a relatively calm week that saw the Dollar Index ease just 0.2%. As in the previous week, selling of the greenback was most pronounced against the JPY, with traders remaining alert to potential Bank of Japan intervention, and the CAD, where the net short was slashed to just 14.6k contracts from 78.3k three weeks earlier. Elsewhere, positioning changes were relatively small and mixed, with modest selling of EUR, GBP, NZD, and MXN more than offset by demand for CHF, AUD, and, not least, the JPY and CAD buying mentioned.</span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and the Dollar Index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Commodities</h3> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="165" data-end="568"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="50" data-end="342"><span></span></p> <p data-start="1095" data-end="1418"> <p><span> <p data-start="82" data-end="607"><span ></span></p> <p><span >In the latest COT reporting week to 5 May, the Bloomberg Commodity Index extended its recent strong run, rising 2.3%, led by gains in energy (+4.5%) and softs (+6.8%), where strong advances in sugar, cocoa, and cotton more than offset minor weakness in precious metals and livestock. Managed money accounts responded by selling into energy strength, with Brent crude seeing a notable increase in gross shorts, while in gold, softer prices within an overall wide range triggered short covering, reducing the gross short position without prompting fresh bearish bets. Elsewhere, the HG copper net long rose for a fourth consecutive week as the key industrial and energy-transition metal continued its strong rebound from the March slump. Prices pushed towards resistance at USD 6.15, a level that was eventually broken last Wednesday, likely triggering an additional wave of buying, the extent of which will only become clear in next week’s report.</span></p> </span></p> </p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 5 May, 2026</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Energy</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Precious and industrial metals</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Agriculture</h3> <br /> The standout development, however, was across agriculture, where a 3.3% rise in the BCOM agriculture index to its highest level since November 2023 sparked an estimated USD 6.2 billion of net buying across the three agricultural subsectors, led by corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton, and cattle. Overall, lifting the net long across the 13 major futures contracts tracked in this above 1 million contracts for the first time in four years, representing a nominal value of USD 57 billion. Continued strength in the U.S. beef market lifted the live cattle net long to a 13-month high of 142k contracts, valued at USD 14.4 billion, making it the third-largest hedge fund long after gold and Brent crude. <p><span>In cotton, a 26% rally since late February - driven by U.S. drought concerns and rising synthetic fiber costs amid the ongoing energy crisis - pushed the net long to a two-year high. Cocoa’s 20% surge, driven by emerging El Niño-related production risks in West Africa, triggered only a modest reduction in the net short, with short covering accounting for most of the move while fresh buying remained notably absent. </span></p> <p><span>Meanwhile, ahead of post-reporting-week profit taking, the Bloomberg Grains Index climbed to a two-year high, supported by weather-related concerns in wheat and rising energy-linked demand for corn- and soy-based biofuels. More broadly, the strong recovery and multiple technical buy signals across most of the six major U.S. crop futures have forced managed money back into a sector that for the past two years had largely been traded from the short side. In the latest reporting week, the combined net long surged to a record 847k contracts - the highest since records began in 2006 - with the bulk concentrated in corn and the soy complex. Wheat positioning remained mixed, however, with CBOT wheat flipping back to a net short as elevated contango continued to favor bearish carry trades.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Key agriculture commodities</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that this group tends to <span>anticipate</span>,<span> accelerate</span>, and <span>amplify</span> price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> 30 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rises-with-oil-as-geopolitical-risk-overwhelms-rate-headwinds-30042026" data-id="913BF947FC8F4E0B9FEEC4B848C64291" data-type="Article">Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds</a><br /> 29 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rally-extends-as-strait-disruption-continues-opecs-role-tested-after-uae-exit-29042026" data-id="DC861D31F2184DABB42FFCF9A7E4B68D" data-type="Article">Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit</a><br /> 28 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-face-near-term-pressure-from-oil-driven-inflation-28042026" data-id="AED8E78ECFE845F2B0244ECDB755536D" data-type="Article">Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation</a><br /> 27 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-21-april-2026-27042026" data-id="DE3EE59CB5414C169CCC0958EC816D81" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - 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Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Forex</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 11 May 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 06:29:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 11 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US records and chips led, Europe softened on geopolitics, Asia stayed mixed as Korea’s AI rally kept drawing flows.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX contained, oil and Iran tensions rise, CPI and retail sales ahead</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin above USD 80k, crypto equities attract bullish call flow</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> US dollar, NOK firm on latest surge in crude oil prices</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil rebounds, gold weakens on Trump’s Iran rebuff; hedge fund rush into agriculture continues</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> Global yields rebound on latest surge in crude oil prices</li> <li><strong>Macro:</strong> US Apr. Existing Home Sales, US Treasury to auction 3-year notes</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US President Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal to end the 10-week conflict as “totally unacceptable”</strong>, prolonging the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</li> <li><strong>The US added 115K jobs in April 2026, beating forecasts but down from a revised 185K in March</strong>, with gains in health care, transport/warehousing, and retail partly offset by losses in information, federal government, and manufacturing. Revisions left February–March employment 16K lower, pointing to a cooling but still resilient labor market.</li> <li><strong>China’s exports rose 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.4bn in April 2026</strong>, far above forecasts, as firms stockpiled components amid Iran-war cost fears. US shipments rebounded 11.3% despite tariffs, while Jan–Apr exports climbed 14.5% to USD 1.34tn, with sales to the US down 10.2%. Trump-Xi meeting will happen this week 14-15 May.</li> <li><strong>The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026</strong>, below April and forecasts, as current conditions slumped on price concerns. About one-third of consumers cited gas prices and 30% tariffs.</li> <li><strong>US year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in May 2026 from 4.7% in April</strong>, while the five-year outlook dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, preliminary May University of Michigan survey data showed.</li> <li><strong>Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April 2026, missing expectations for a 15,000 gain</strong>. Full-time employment fell by 47,000 while part-time rose by 29,000; the employment rate edged down to 60.5%, with youth and core-aged male unemployment up and Ontario adding 42,000 jobs. </li> <li><strong>China's factory prices grew at the fastest pace since the pandemic</strong> as the Iran war raises costs and leaves profits under pressure, with producer prices rising 2.8% in April from a year earlier. Consumer inflation unexpectedly climbed to 1.2% from a year earlier, driven by higher motor fuel and gold prices, despite food prices slumping.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>0600 – Norway Apr. CPI</li> <li>1400 – US Apr. Existing Home Sales</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes</li> <li>0130 – Australia Apr. NAB Business survey</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Monday (today)</strong>: Petrobras, Constellation Energy, AST SpaceMobile</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,398.93 on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% to 26,247.08 and the Dow was almost flat at 49,609.16, as stronger jobs data and another AI-chip surge pushed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to records. Semiconductors drove the tone, with Micron up about 15.5% on AI memory demand, AMD up more than 11% on renewed data-centre optimism, and Intel up strongly after reports of a potential Apple foundry deal. Monster Beverage surged 13.6% after better-than-expected results. Markets now watch whether Monday’s Iran headlines cool the record mood.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7% to 612.14 on Friday, while the DAX dropped 1.3%, the CAC 40 lost 1.1% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.4%, as renewed US-Iran tensions and tariff noise hit risk appetite. Financials and industrials dragged, with Commerzbank down 3.9% after announcing up to 3,000 job cuts and higher targets as it pushed back against UniCredit’s takeover approach. IAG fell 2.8% after warning on annual profit due to higher fuel costs, while Amadeus gained 1.9% after strong earnings. Investors now watch oil, tariffs and whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian markets ended mixed on Friday before Monday’s cautious open. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2% to 62,713.65 after profit-taking, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9% to 26,393.71 and Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 0.4% to 4,921.90. South Korea remained the standout story, with the Kospi up more than 13% over the week as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to anchor the global AI memory trade. Hongkong Land gave back 5.2% on Friday after leading gains the day before, while Venture Corp had jumped 10.9% on May 7. Korea is now the market everyone watches, because subtle it is not.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility remains relatively contained despite a market backdrop that is becoming more complex.</strong> The <strong>VIX closed at 17.19</strong> on Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh record highs, supported by resilient US payrolls data, strong AI-related earnings momentum and continued buying in semiconductor stocks. At the same time, investors are becoming more cautious around the inflation outlook after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, sending Brent crude back above USD 105 and renewing concerns about energy-driven price pressures. This week’s focus now shifts toward US CPI, PPI and retail sales data, alongside the Trump-Xi meeting and several important bond auctions, all of which could influence rate expectations and market sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Options markets suggest investors still expect relatively orderly conditions overall, but with downside hedging quietly building underneath the surface</strong>. Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying an expected move of roughly 97 points, or around 1.31%, into the 15 May weekly expiry. For today’s expiry, the implied move is around 38 points or 0.51%. The daily skew indicator continues to show a modest defensive bias, with implied volatility in near-the-money puts around the 7,400 strike remaining above equivalent calls. However, strong call open interest and continued upside flow in mega-cap technology stocks suggest investors are still participating in the rally rather than positioning for an outright reversal.</li> <li>Friday’s options flow reinforced that mixed-but-constructive picture. <strong>Confirmed opening flow remained heavily concentrated in upside call positioning </strong>across semiconductors and AI-linked names, including AMD, MCHP and SOXX, while Mag7 activity showed continued bullish participation in AAPL, AMZN, TSLA and NVDA. <strong>At the same time, investors continued to buy SPX, SPY and QQQ downside protection</strong>, indicating that institutional money remains involved in the rally but is not abandoning hedges completely.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets started the week on a relatively firm footing</strong>, with <strong>Bitcoin trading around USD 80,800</strong> and briefly pushing back above USD 82,000 after renewed geopolitical tensions triggered another wave of short covering. Markets reacted sharply after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, extending uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and oil markets. Despite that geopolitical backdrop, crypto sentiment remains supported by institutional adoption trends, improving US regulatory momentum and continued interest in crypto-linked equities.</li> <li><strong>US spot ETF flows remain mixed beneath the surface</strong>. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows on Friday, including modest selling in IBIT, while Ethereum ETF flows were broadly flat and ETHA finished slightly higher. </li> <li><strong>Crypto-linked equities, however, continued to attract aggressive upside positioning in the options market,</strong> particularly in MSTR, COIN, MARA, IREN and CRCL, suggesting investors are still willing to position for another leg higher in the sector. Among major altcoins, Ethereum held near USD 2,334, Solana traded around USD 95.75, XRP near USD 1.45, while Dogecoin slightly lagged broader crypto performance. Investors will also continue monitoring progress around the US Senate’s proposed CLARITY Act, which could become an important medium-term catalyst for institutional participation across digital assets.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil prices climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response</strong> to his proposal to end the 10-week conflict as “totally unacceptable.” The two sides continue to maintain a fragile ceasefire while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on. After briefly trading down to USD 96 last week on renewed hopes the strait would reopen, Brent has rebounded above USD 105. Morgan Stanley has described the situation as a “race against time,” warning that recent mitigating factors - such as a surge in U.S. exports (+3.8 mb/d YoY over the past 30 days) and weaker Chinese imports (-5.5 mb/d) - cannot persist indefinitely. That increasingly leaves demand destruction through slower consumption growth and higher prices as the only viable mechanisms to rebalance the market.</li> <li><strong>All three of the major oil forecasting agencies will publish their monthly market outlooks during the week</strong>, starting with EIA on Tuesday, followed by OPEC and IEA on Wednesday. </li> <li><strong>Gold trades lower after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal</strong>, lifting both the dollar and U.S. bond yields. Additional pressure came after India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians - the world’s second-largest bullion consumers - to avoid buying gold for at least a year to preserve foreign-exchange reserves as the Middle East war and energy shortages widen India’s trade deficit and weigh on the rupee. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance is seen at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,768.</li> <li><strong>The latest COT report covering the week to 5 May showed continued hedge funds rotation</strong> into a rising agricultural sector led by corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton, and cattle. Continued strength in the U.S. beef market lifted the live cattle net long to a 13-month high, and valued at USD 14.4 billion, making it the third-largest hedge fund long after gold and Brent crude. Led by corn and the soybeans complex, the combined crop long surged to a record high since data began in 2006, while CBOT wheat, by contrast, flipped back to a net short as elevated contango continued to favor bearish carry trades.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasury yields rebounded after Friday’s dip</strong>, as a fresh surge in crude oil prices on the lack of a US-Iran deal at the weekend weighed. After dipping a few basis points Friday in the wake of the US jobs report, treasury yields rebounded early Monday to levels slightly above where they closed last Thursday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading near 3.92% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield just above 4.39%</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened Monday on the latest surge in crude oil prices </strong>as the world still awaits the opening of the Hormuz strait. Yields at the front end of the curve remain little changed, while longer dated JGB’s came under pressure. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose just under three basis points to 2.51%, while the benchmark 30-year JGB yield rose a similar amount to above 3.76%, its highest daily close since late March.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar firmed on the latest surge in crude oil prices </strong>on the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations related to opening the Hormuz Strait for shipping. The US remains seen as less impacted by ongoing disruptions to global energy supplies through the strait. <strong>USDJPY </strong>rose above 157.00 Monday after closing Friday at 156.68, while <strong>EURUSD </strong>dropped back to just above 1.1750 after closing Friday at 1.1787.v</li> <li><strong>The surprise Norges Bank rate hike last Thursday and the latest surge in crude oil prices has NOK rallying again</strong>, with <strong>EURNOK </strong>pushing back toward cycle lows that nearly reached 10.80 last week, while <strong>NOKSEK </strong>rallied to a new high since mid-2024 Monday, clear of 1.0050.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Trump-Xi meeting: Iran war, trade deal, chips, and more on the agenda</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 05:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 data-pm-slice="1 1 []" class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>The Trump-Xi meeting this week is not just a diplomatic event. It is a market event that sits at the intersection of the Iran war, oil prices, inflation, trade, rare earths, semiconductors and AI supply chains.</p> </li> <li> <p>The most important market question is whether the US and China can reduce the Iran-related oil shock without reopening a broader trade and technology shock.</p> </li> <li> <p>A constructive outcome could support risk assets, especially Asia equities, cyclicals, airlines, travel, selected China/HK names and AI supply-chain stocks. A poor outcome could keep oil elevated, support the US dollar and gold, and pressure risk sentiment.</p> </li> <li> <p>Investors should avoid treating the summit as a single all-or-nothing trade. A more balanced approach is to keep exposure to structural growth themes, retain geopolitical and inflation hedges, and watch for tactical opportunities if diplomacy reduces the war premium.</p> </li> </ul> <p><hr /> </p> <p>US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 14–15 May, in one of the week’s key geopolitical and market events.</p> <p>Before that, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul on 12–13 May to narrow the economic agenda, including trade-truce extensions, rare earth supply and potential US goods purchases.</p> <p>That sequencing matters. If the economic issues are partly cleared first, Trump and Xi can focus on the bigger strategic questions: Iran, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan, technology controls and the direction of US-China relations.</p> <p>The Iran war has pushed oil back into the centre of the macro debate. Higher oil raises inflation risk, pressures consumers and makes central banks more cautious.</p> <p>This is why the meeting matters. The US wants China to use its influence with Tehran, while China wants stable energy flows and open shipping lanes. The summit may not end the war, but it could change how markets price the war premium in oil, trade, rare earths and semiconductors.<br /> <br /> </p> <h2>What is likely on the agenda?</h2> <h3>1. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz</h3> <p>Iran will likely be the most urgent topic.</p> <p>The US will want China to use its influence with Tehran, especially because China is a major buyer of Iranian oil. China, meanwhile, wants energy security and stable shipping lanes, but it is unlikely to appear as if it is acting under US instruction.</p> <p>That means the most likely outcome is not a dramatic public deal, but a more subtle signal: both sides may agree on the need to avoid further escalation, keep shipping lanes open and support a diplomatic path.</p> <p>That would still matter for markets. If China is seen as helping to keep oil flows moving, crude prices could lose some of their war premium. If the meeting turns into a blame game over Iran, oil could remain supported and equities may struggle.</p> <h3>2. Trade, tariffs and market confidence</h3> <p>Trade will also be on the table.</p> <p>Investors are not expecting tariffs to disappear overnight. The real question is whether both sides avoid fresh escalation. A truce extension, more dialogue, or commitments around purchases of US goods could be enough to support sentiment.</p> <p>Markets do not need perfection here. They need predictability.</p> <p>A calmer US-China trade backdrop would help global cyclicals, Asian exporters, industrials and China/HK equities. A more hostile tone would revive fears that the Iran war is no longer just an energy shock, but part of a broader geopolitical fragmentation story.</p> <h3>3. Rare earths and semiconductors</h3> <p>This may be the most important market issue after oil.</p> <p>China controls a large share of rare earth processing, and rare earths are critical for electric vehicles, defence systems, aerospace, robotics, power equipment and parts of the broader technology supply chain. The US, on the other hand, controls access to advanced semiconductor technology and AI chips.</p> <p>That creates a difficult bargaining setup. China wants relief from US technology restrictions. The US wants assurance that critical minerals keep flowing.</p> <p>For investors, this is about supply-chain confidence. If the meeting reduces rare earth and chip tensions, it could support semiconductors, autos, aerospace, industrials and selected AI infrastructure names. If tensions rise, markets may begin to price more supply disruption and higher costs.</p> <h3>4. AI and national security</h3> <p>AI is no longer just a growth theme. It is now a national security theme.</p> <p>The US-China relationship will shape the future of AI hardware, cloud infrastructure, data centres, chips, advanced manufacturing and cyber security. Any discussion around AI governance, export controls or technology guardrails could influence sentiment across the entire AI value chain.</p> <p>A constructive meeting would not remove strategic rivalry. But even communication channels and clearer rules of engagement would be helpful. Investors have become comfortable with competition. What they dislike is uncertainty that suddenly shuts down supply chains or access to critical components.</p> <h3>5. Taiwan risk</h3> <p>Taiwan will remain a sensitive issue because Beijing is concerned about US arms sales to the self-ruling island and may seek stronger US language opposing Taiwan independence, while Taipei rejects Beijing’s claim and continues to push for greater international recognition.</p> <p>For markets, Taiwan is not just a geopolitical flashpoint. It is central to the semiconductor supply chain. Any language that suggests lower tension could support Taiwan equities and global chip sentiment. Any aggressive rhetoric could pressure semiconductors and broader Asia risk assets.</p> <p>This is another reason why the meeting matters beyond politics. Taiwan risk is directly linked to the valuation of global technology.<br /> <br /> </p> <h2>Three scenarios for markets</h2> <h3>Scenario 1: Constructive but vague — the most likely outcome</h3> <p>This is the base case.</p> <p>The two leaders avoid major confrontation. They agree that energy flows should normalise, trade dialogue should continue and supply-chain channels should remain open. There is no formal breakthrough on Iran, but the tone is stable enough to calm markets.</p> <p><strong>Likely market reaction:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Oil eases but does not collapse</p> </li> <li> <p>Equities bounce, especially Asia and cyclicals</p> </li> <li> <p>The US dollar softens modestly</p> </li> <li> <p>Gold consolidates</p> </li> <li> <p>Semiconductors and AI infrastructure regain leadership</p> </li> <li> <p>China/HK sees a tactical relief rally</p> </li> </ul> <p>This would be a positive outcome, but not a full risk reset. Investors would still need to monitor oil, inflation data and central bank messaging.</p> <h3>Scenario 2: China helps create a path to de-escalation</h3> <p>This is the bullish scenario.</p> <p>China quietly supports a diplomatic path that helps reduce pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets begin to price lower disruption risk. The US and China also avoid fresh trade or technology escalation.</p> <p><strong>Likely market reaction:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Oil falls sharply as the war premium fades</p> </li> <li> <p>Airlines, travel, consumer discretionary and oil-importing economies benefit</p> </li> <li> <p>Inflation expectations ease</p> </li> <li> <p>Bond yields may fall</p> </li> <li> <p>Equities rally, led by cyclicals and Asia</p> </li> <li> <p>Energy equities may lag after a strong run</p> </li> </ul> <p>This would be the cleanest risk-on outcome. It would support the idea that the geopolitical shock is becoming more manageable.</p> <h3>Scenario 3: The meeting exposes a deeper US-China fracture</h3> <p>This is the risk-off scenario.</p> <p>The US pushes China hard on Iranian oil purchases. China refuses to be seen as pressuring Tehran. Taiwan, chips and rare earths become sources of disagreement rather than compromise.</p> <p><strong>Likely market reaction:</strong></p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li> <p>Oil remains elevated or rises further</p> </li> <li> <p>The US dollar strengthens</p> </li> <li> <p>Gold gains support</p> </li> <li> <p>Asia equities come under pressure</p> </li> <li> <p>Semiconductors wobble on renewed technology tension</p> </li> <li> <p>Energy, defence and inflation hedges outperform</p> </li> </ul> <p>This would be the most difficult outcome for investors because it would combine two shocks: an oil shock and a supply-chain shock.<br /> <br /> </p> <h2>How investors can think about positioning</h2> <p>The key is not to bet everything on one political outcome. This is a headline-heavy week, with Iran, US-China diplomacy, inflation data and earnings all moving at the same time.</p> <p>A more balanced approach may make sense.</p> <h3>1. Stay exposed to structural growth, but be selective</h3> <p>AI remains one of the strongest structural themes in the market. The earnings season has reinforced that companies tied to AI infrastructure, semiconductors, memory, networking, power and data centres continue to see strong demand.</p> <p>A constructive Trump-Xi meeting could support this theme by reducing supply-chain uncertainty. But investors should avoid assuming that every AI-linked stock benefits equally. The market is becoming more selective, rewarding companies that show real revenues, pricing power and visibility.</p> <p>The risk is that renewed US-China technology tension could hit sentiment quickly, especially after strong gains in semiconductors and AI infrastructure names.</p> <h3>2. Keep some inflation and geopolitical protection</h3> <p>Until the Strait of Hormuz risk is genuinely resolved, oil and gold remain important market signals.</p> <p>Energy exposure can act as a hedge against a persistent oil shock, but it should be sized carefully. If diplomacy works, oil could fall quickly and energy equities may give back gains. Gold can help in periods of geopolitical stress, but higher real yields and a stronger dollar can cap upside.</p> <p>This is not about hiding from markets. It is about recognising that inflation shocks can change correlations and make traditional diversification less reliable.</p> <h3>3. Watch for a tactical China and Asia relief trade</h3> <p>A constructive summit could support China/HK equities, Asian exporters, industrials, autos and consumer names. The relief could be stronger if oil falls at the same time, because lower energy prices would ease pressure on margins, consumers and central banks.</p> <p>Korea and Taiwan both remain important parts of the Asia AI story, but both are also sensitive to the meeting outcome. A constructive summit could support Taiwan through lower geopolitical risk around semiconductors and supply chains, while Korea could benefit from stronger confidence in memory demand, autos, batteries and global trade. A poor outcome would do the opposite: Taiwan could face renewed chip and Taiwan-risk concerns, while Korea could be pressured by weaker trade sentiment, higher input costs and broader cyclical caution. Meanwhile, a good summit can lift China/HK sentiment, but it does not automatically solve China’s property, consumption or confidence challenges.</p> <h3>4. Oil-importing economies could benefit from de-escalation</h3> <p>If oil prices fall after the meeting, oil-importing markets such as Japan, India and parts of Southeast Asia could see relief. Airlines, travel, logistics and consumer-facing sectors may also benefit.</p> <p>However, if oil stays high, these same areas remain vulnerable. Higher fuel costs can pressure margins, weaken consumer spending and keep inflation expectations elevated.</p> <h3>5. Avoid overconfidence around one headline</h3> <p>The market reaction may change quickly as details emerge. A positive photo opportunity can support sentiment for a few hours, but investors will want to see whether shipping lanes, oil flows, export controls and trade rhetoric actually improve.</p> <p>The first move may not be the final move.<br /> <br /> </p> <h2>The investor takeaway</h2> <p>The Trump-Xi meeting may not end the Iran war, but it could shape how markets price the war.</p> <p>A constructive outcome would reduce some oil risk premium, support Asia and cyclicals, and help AI supply-chain sentiment. A poor outcome would keep inflation risks elevated and turn the Iran war from a regional energy shock into a broader US-China strategic shock.</p> <p>For investors, the right playbook is balance: stay invested in structural winners, keep protection against oil and inflation shocks, and remain ready for tactical opportunities if diplomacy reduces the risk premium.</p> <p>This is not a week to be fully risk-on or fully defensive. It is a week to stay flexible, watch the signals and avoid letting one headline drive the entire portfolio.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </p> <h2></h2></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>China</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Beyond stocks: How to build the next layer of your portfolio</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 03:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Your first stock trade — or even your first few stock trades — is an important step. But a portfolio made only of stocks can still be exposed to one asset class, and often to the same market drivers.</p> <p>Once you have started investing, the next question is not simply “what should I buy next?” A better question is: <strong>how do I build beyond stocks in a more thoughtful way?</strong></p> <p>Markets do not reward the same exposures every quarter. Multi-asset investing is less about chasing returns and more about building a portfolio that can behave through different regimes, especially when drawdowns test decision-making.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why it may be worth building beyond stocks</strong></h2> <p>An interesting insight from aggregated Saxo client activity over the past five years: clients who used more than one product type were more likely to have higher profitability outcomes than clients who only used one product type, such as stocks only.</p> <p><strong></strong></p> <p><strong>Note:</strong> Past performance is not indicative of future results.<br /> <strong>Source:</strong> Saxo client data.</p> <p>This is an association, not proof that using multiple products causes better results. But there are sensible reasons why broader portfolios may lead to better outcomes: a smoother ride can help investors stay invested through drawdowns; different environments reward different exposures; and adding another product type can reduce hidden concentration in one stock, sector, region or theme.</p> <p>The practical takeaway: a broader toolkit can give investors more ways to respond when market leadership shifts, and may reduce the risk that one stock, sector or theme dominates portfolio outcomes.</p> <p>That does not mean a full portfolio rebuild. It can start with one additional building block — such as ETFs for broader exposure, using Shortlists to track current themes, learning collateralised options strategies for shares they own, exploring securities lending where available, or understanding CFDs and margin lending before using leverage — which we explore in the sections below.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>1. Broaden exposure with ETFs</strong></h2> <p>Buying individual stocks can be exciting because the story is clear: a company, a product, a founder, an earnings result, or a market theme.</p> <p>But single stocks also come with single-company risk. Earnings disappointment, management changes, regulation, currency moves, or sector rotation can all affect one stock sharply.</p> <p>That is where ETFs can help.</p> <p>ETFs allow investors to access a basket of securities in one trade. They can be used to gain exposure to:</p> <ul > <li>broad markets, such as the US, Europe, Asia or global equities;</li> <li>sectors, such as technology, healthcare, financials or energy;</li> <li>themes, such as AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity or infrastructure;</li> <li>bonds, gold or other diversifiers.</li> </ul> <p>For many investors, ETFs can be a useful way to build a portfolio core, while individual stocks become more targeted satellite positions.</p> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> ETFs can still fall in value, especially during broad market selloffs, and thematic or sector ETFs may be concentrated in a narrow set of risks.</p> <p><strong>How to think about it:</strong> If your first trade was a single stock, ask whether your portfolio depends too much on one company, one sector or one country. ETFs may help broaden that exposure.</p> <p><strong>Explore next:</strong> <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/markets/markets?selectedTabId=markets-tabs-markets~etfs">ETF ideas</a> and diversified market exposure.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>2. Track current themes with Shortlists</strong></h2> <p>Markets move quickly. One week, investors may be focused on AI and semiconductor earnings. The next, the focus could shift to central banks, oil prices, banks, defence, China, Japan, gold or dividend stocks.</p> <p>Shortlists can help investors keep track of the themes currently driving market attention.</p> <p>They are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Instead, they can be used as a starting point for research, helping investors compare names within a theme and understand where market interest is building.</p> <p>Shortlists can be useful if you want to explore:</p> <ul > <li>popular stocks and ETFs;</li> <li>market themes such as AI, dividend stocks, cybersecurity or space economy;</li> <li>regional opportunities such as Singapore, Japan, China or US markets;</li> <li>trading ideas around earnings, macro events or sector moves.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> Shortlists may highlight popular or timely themes, but market attention can reverse quickly, and not every theme will suit every investor’s risk profile or time horizon.</p> <p><strong>How to think about it:</strong> If you are not sure what to research next, start with the themes the market is already watching. Then ask whether the idea fits your risk profile, time horizon and portfolio needs.</p> <p><strong>Explore next:</strong> <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/inspiration/shortlists">Curated Shortlists across stocks, ETFs and market themes</a>.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>3. Learn options strategies for shares you own</strong></h2> <p>Some investors who already own shares use options to manage their stock exposure in more advanced ways.</p> <p>A simpler starting point may be to first understand <strong>put options</strong>. A put option gives the holder the right to sell a stock at a set price before expiry. For investors, this matters because puts are often linked to two useful concepts: downside protection and disciplined entry levels.</p> <p>From there, investors can learn about <strong>income strategies</strong> such as covered calls. A covered call involves selling a call option on shares already owned. The investor receives option premium upfront, but the trade-off is that upside may be capped if the stock rises above the strike price. The shares may also be called away.</p> <p>Another example is a <strong>cash-secured put</strong>, which is also commonly used as an income strategy. This involves selling a put option on a stock an investor may be willing to buy at a lower price, while keeping enough cash aside in case the shares are assigned. The investor receives premium upfront, but may be required to buy the stock if it falls below the strike price.</p> <p>Options can be useful portfolio tools, but they are not beginner products.</p> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> Options involve specific risks, including assignment risk, missed upside, downside exposure, early exercise, expiry dates, strike prices and premium. They may not be suitable for all investors.</p> <p><strong>How to think about it:</strong> Start with the basics: what is a put, what is a call, what is a strike price, and what happens at expiry. Then move to collateralised strategies such as cash-secured puts and covered calls, where the risks and trade-offs must be clearly understood before placing any options trade.</p> <p><strong>Explore next:</strong> <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/inspiration/strategies-options?selectedTabId=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Options education</a>, put options, <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/inspiration/enhance-your-investing-with-options?selectedTabId=inspiration-global-listed-option-faq~global-listed-options-understanding-options">cash-secured puts and covered calls</a>.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>4. Explore securities lending for potential additional income</strong></h2> <p>Investors who already hold stocks or ETFs may also be able to earn additional income by lending eligible securities, where this service is available.</p> <p>With securities lending, eligible holdings may be lent to other market participants, typically in exchange for lending income. The investor still has market exposure to the underlying security, while potentially earning an additional return from holdings they were already planning to keep.</p> <p>This can be useful for long-term investors who want to make their existing portfolio work a little harder, without necessarily changing their market view or selling their holdings.</p> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> Securities lending involves risks, including counterparty risk, collateral risk, possible delays in recall, and differences in how dividends, voting rights or corporate actions may be treated. Income is not guaranteed and availability may vary by security and market.</p> <p><strong>How to think about it:</strong> Securities lending may be worth understanding if you already hold stocks or ETFs for the longer term and want to explore potential incremental income. It should still be reviewed carefully, especially the risks, eligibility, and how income is calculated.</p> <p><strong>Explore next:</strong> Securities lending basics and eligible holdings.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>5. Understand CFDs and margin lending before using leverage</strong></h2> <p>Some investors use leveraged products or borrowing tools to increase market exposure or act on short-term opportunities. These tools can create flexibility, but they also increase risk.</p> <p><strong>CFDs</strong></p> <p>Contracts for Difference, or CFDs, allow traders to take a view on price moves without owning the underlying asset. They can be used to trade both rising and falling markets, and often provide access to stocks, indices, commodities, FX and other markets.</p> <p>Because CFDs are leveraged, a smaller amount of capital can control a larger market exposure. This means gains can be amplified, but losses can also be amplified. Losses may exceed the initial amount committed.</p> <p>CFDs are generally more suited to active traders who understand position sizing, stop losses, market volatility and leverage risk.</p> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> CFDs are leveraged products, so losses can be magnified and may exceed the initial amount committed.</p> <p><strong>Margin lending</strong></p> <p>Margin lending allows eligible clients to borrow against their existing portfolio, using eligible holdings as collateral. This can provide additional buying power without first selling existing investments.</p> <p>This flexibility can be useful in some situations, but borrowing has costs.</p> <p><strong>Risk to consider:</strong> If markets move against the portfolio, losses can be magnified and clients may need to add funds, reduce positions, or face forced selling.</p> <p><strong>How to think about it:</strong> Leverage should be considered only after understanding the risks, costs, and how it fits your investment or trading plan.</p> <p><strong>Explore next:</strong> <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/markets/markets?selectedTabId=markets-tabs-markets~cfds">CFD education</a> and <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/portfolio/article?articleid=9587e071-16e5-4054-87c2-b52ffa848059">margin lending basics</a>.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Final thought</strong></h2> <p>Your first stock trade is a starting point, not the full journey.</p> <p>The next layer depends on what you are trying to achieve:</p> <ul > <li>want broader exposure? Consider ETFs;</li> <li>looking for market ideas? Explore Shortlists;</li> <li>already own shares and want to learn advanced strategies? Study options;</li> <li>looking for potential additional income on existing holdings? Explore securities lending where available;</li> <li>seeking tactical exposure or buying power? Understand CFDs and margin lending first.</li> </ul> <p>Markets will always offer new ideas. The key is to build in a way that matches your goals, risk appetite and time horizon.</p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span> <span>ETF Inspiration</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>CFDs</span> <span>CFD</span> <span>Securities Lending</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 11 May, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 11 May 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>Trump rejects Iran’s response and prolongs close of Straits </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Intel +14% after deal with Apple; Futures lower on Trump response to Iran </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Norwegian krone is the top-performing G10 currency YTD </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Brent crude futures rose as much as 3.5% to $104.80 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >30-year US Treasury yields ended the week below 5% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong >Macro: </strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal to end the 10-week conflict as “totally unacceptable</span></strong><span>,” prolonging the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >The US added 115K jobs in April 2026, beating forecasts but down from a revised 185K in March</strong><span >, with gains in health care, transport/warehousing, and retail partly offset by losses in information, federal government, and manufacturing. Revisions left February–March employment 16K lower, pointing to a cooling but still resilient labor market.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >China’s exports rose 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.4bn in April 2026</strong><span >, far above forecasts, as firms stockpiled components amid Iran-war cost fears. US shipments rebounded 11.3% despite tariffs, while Jan–Apr exports climbed 14.5% to USD 1.34tn, with sales to the US down 10.2%. <strong>Trump-Xi meeting will happen this week 14-15 May.</strong></span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026</strong><span >, below April and forecasts, as current conditions slumped on price concerns. About one-third of consumers cited gas prices and 30% tariffs; year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations eased to 4.5% and 3.4%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in May 2026 from 4.7% in April</strong><span >, while the five-year outlook dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, University of Michigan data showed.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April 2026, missing expectations for a 15,000 gain</strong><span >. Full-time employment fell by 47,000 while part-time rose by 29,000; the employment rate edged down to 60.5%, with youth and core-aged male unemployment up and Ontario adding 42,000 jobs.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US:</strong> US equity-index futures edged lower after the S&P 500 Index rallied to a record on Friday. <strong>Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.2% in early trading after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to his latest proposal to end the war. </strong>The SOX index rose more than 5% on Friday to provide an external boost for Asian peers. Dell Technologies was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with a $243 price target. I<strong>ntel's price target was raised to $96 from $56 at BofA following news of a potential foundry deal with Apple that could provide $10 billion in sales by 2030.</strong> Monster Beverage's price target was raised to $100 from $96 at Morgan Stanley following very strong Q1 and April results. <span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU:</strong><span > The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the week flat at around 620 points, despite a volatile stretch that saw the index slide toward 604 before surging nearly 4% to 626 points. The index struggled to mount a relief rally despite talk of a US-Iran deal, oil retreating from highs, resilient earnings, and strong bank beats. Commerzbank announced plans to cut as many as 3,000 roles and lifted financial targets as the bank resists a takeover from Italian rival UniCredit. Tenaris agreed to acquire Romanian pipe maker Artrom Steel Tubes for EUR86 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis. REA Group's 8% price rise suggests confidence in its position and indicates it is untroubled by CoStar-owned Domain, according to Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia:</strong><span > Asian stocks are set for a mixed open after President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, dimming prospects for a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict. Nikkei futures are up 1.5% at 63,770 on the SGX, with the Nikkei Stock Average having fallen 0.2% to 62,713.65 on Friday. South Korea's Kospi is primed for more gains after a late surge Friday in futures and Korean ETFs, despite the advance in crude oil early Monday. The theme of Asian AI stocks outperforming is becoming a global narrative drawing in funds from all over the investing universe. Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw Hongkong Land lead gainers on May 7, rising 9.2% to US$8.70, while the worst performer was Hongkong Land on May 8, falling 5.2% to US$8.25. Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.3% on May 7 to finish at 4,941.96, with Venture Corp leading gainers by rising 10.9% to $18.28, while the index lost 0.4% on May 8 to finish at 4,921.90. The Kospi rallied more than 13% over three sessions earlier in the week, with Goldman Sachs raising its target to 9,000, citing Korea as its highest conviction view with forecast earnings growth of 300% this year.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Earnings this week:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Monday: </strong>Circle, Hims&Hers, Rigetti, Barrick Mining<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Tuesday: </strong><span >Oklo, Sea limited, Oncloud, JD.com, </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Wednesday: </strong><span >Alibaba, Tencent, Cisco, SoftBank Group</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Thursday</strong><span >: Applied materials, Honda</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>The dollar climbed against most G10 peers in early trading after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace-deal response, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.1%, paring Friday's 0.2% drop.<span></span></li> <li>The <strong >pound </strong><span >was among the biggest laggards as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer came under pressure to step aside following poor local election results, with GBPUSD indicated 0.1% lower at 1.3618.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >yen </strong><span >dropped against the dollar while Japanese government bonds are expected to fall, with USDJPY up 0.1% to 156.91 as the dollar remains at elevated levels due to Middle East tensions.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >Norwegian krone</strong><span > has become the best performing G10 currency in the year to date, up 9.51% against the US dollar, while the </span><strong >Swedish krona</strong><span > has become the worst performing G10 currency, down 0.04% against the dollar.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD </strong><span >down 0.2% to 0.7234 after a 0.6% rise last week. CFTC (week to 5 May): leveraged funds raised net AUD longs by 10,695 to 58,994; net </span><strong >NZD </strong><span >shorts up 2,461 to 19,294, the most bearish since 2019.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> futures advanced as much as 3.5% to $104.80 a barrel, while WTI climbed to near $99 after Trump said Iran's response was totally unacceptable, prolonging the effective closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold </strong><span >fell as Trump rejected Iran's latest peace offer to end the 10-week conflict, fanning inflation fears, with bullion trading near $4,698 an ounce after rising around 2% last week.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds</strong> briefly touched 5.15%, the highest since July, before ending the week about 2 basis points lower at 4.94% as the bond market has been held hostage by oil prices.<span></span></li> <li><span> </span>The yield premium for Asia ex-Japan's investment-grade dollar bonds widened at the end of last week after falling to an all-time low earlier, as risk sentiment is waning after President Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest proposal to end the war.<span ></span></li> <li>Goldman Sachs has lifted its 10-year JGB yield forecast to 2.5% by end-2026 and 2.25% by end-2027, versus 2% previously across both years, to reflect a more durable risk premium across the curve.<span ></span></li> <li>Final CME open interest data show continued liquidation in <strong >2-year note futures</strong><span > after Thursday’s Treasury move, with sizeable new risk added in 5- and 10-year notes. SOFR futures saw a mix of unwinds and fresh positions, while May fed funds open interest rose modestly after Thursday’s heavy buying.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" >Inspiration</a><span >.</span><strong > </strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Central banks and investors now account for around 52% of total gold demand, up from roughly one-third a decade ago, making the market less dependent on price-sensitive jewellery demand. </span></li> <li><span>Reserve managers continue to accumulate gold for strategic reasons including de-dollarisation, reserve sovereignty, diversification and protection against rising fiscal debt and geopolitical fragmentation. </span></li> <li><span>Alongside safe-haven demand, concerns about inflation, debt sustainability, currency debasement and stretched asset valuations are attracting long-term portfolio flows into gold, reinforced by momentum and FOMO.</span></li> <li><span>Gold’s ability to hold firm above USD 4,500 during a period of strong equity market performance highlights resilient underlying demand, with resistance seen near the 50-day moving average around USD 4,780, followed by USD 4,850</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p><span>The latest quarterly update from the <a href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2026">World Gold Council</a> highlights a structural shift that continues to underpin bullion at historically elevated prices: gold demand is increasingly being driven by central banks and investors, two groups that are far less price sensitive than traditional jewellery buyers. Together, official sector purchases and investment demand have risen from accounting for roughly one-third of total gold demand a decade ago to around 52% on average over the past three years, fundamentally changing the market’s demand profile. This matters because it helps explain why gold continues to find support despite having doubled in price during the past couple of years. </span></p> <p><span>While jewellery demand remains highly sensitive to price and affordability, strategic reserve managers and investors, by contrast, are buying for reasons that extend well beyond valuation. For them, gold is increasingly being treated as insurance, diversification and monetary ballast in a world facing rising debt burdens, inflation uncertainty and growing geopolitical fragmentation.</span></p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Central banks remain the structural anchor</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Central bank buying has remained a major pillar of demand since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions, including the freezing of assets held by the Central Bank of Russia, fundamentally changed how reserve managers think about sovereign assets and reserve security.</span></p> <p><span>That triggered a wave of official sector buying, with central banks purchasing more than 1,000 tonnes annually in each of the following three years, before demand eased modestly last year to around 850 tonnes, still historically strong. So far this year, buying remains robust, with the World Gold Council reporting net purchases of 243.7 tonnes in the first quarter, slightly above Q1 last year.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Central Bank and investment demand for gold - Source: WGC & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The drivers remain clear:</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar</span></strong><span><br /> Reserve managers are increasingly wary of overexposure to dollar-denominated assets, particularly at a time of rising U.S. fiscal deficits, expanding debt burdens and concerns over the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Sanctions risk and reserve sovereignty</span></strong><span><br /> The freezing of Russian reserves was a watershed moment. Gold held domestically carries no counterparty risk and remains beyond the reach of foreign sanctions or financial restrictions.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Portfolio diversification</span></strong><span><br /> Gold offers low correlation to traditional reserve assets such as sovereign bonds, while maintaining liquidity and long-term store-of-value credentials.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Inflation and debt concerns</span></strong><span><br /> Persistent deficits, rising debt-to-GDP ratios and repeated fiscal stimulus measures are fuelling concern about long-term currency debasement.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Geopolitical fragmentation</span></strong><span><br /> As the global economy becomes increasingly divided into competing blocs, gold remains one of the few reserve assets that is <span class="underline; ">universally accepted, politically neutral and controlled by no single government</span>. In short, central bank buying is not about chasing price, but about reducing strategic vulnerability.</span></p> <p><strong >Investors are increasingly thinking the same way</strong></p> <p><span>What is increasingly notable is that investors, both private and institutional are arriving at much the same conclusion. Investment demand remains robust because many of the same macro concerns influencing central banks are also shaping portfolio decisions across pension funds, family offices, wealth managers and retail investors.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Similar drivers to central bank demand with a few additions</span></strong><span>:</span></h3> <p><strong><span>Hard asset protection against fiscal risk</span></strong><span><br /> Investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against unsustainable debt accumulation, policy uncertainty and the gradual erosion of fiat purchasing power.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Inflation resilience</span></strong><span><br /> Even where headline inflation moderates, structural inflation concerns tied to energy transition spending, supply chain fragmentation, defence spending and labour shortages continue to support demand for inflation hedges.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Momentum and FOMO</span></strong><span><br /> Gold’s strong price performance has become a driver in itself. Momentum-following investors and underallocated portfolios are increasingly being drawn into the market by fear of missing further upside.</span></p> <p><strong><span>TINA—There is no obvious safe alternative</span></strong><span><br /> Equities remain strong, but valuations are stretched. Bonds offer income, but not always reliable diversification in an inflationary environment. Cash remains vulnerable to real purchasing power erosion. Gold increasingly sits in the middle as a liquid hard asset hedge.<br /> </span></p> <p><strong >Short-term outlook: rangebound, but resilient</strong></p> <p><span>From a technical perspective, gold remains in consolidation mode after its recent correction. Support has in the last two weeks been established ahead of USD 4,500, while initial resistance is seen at the 50-day moving average near USD 4,780, followed by stronger resistance around USD 4,850.</span></p> <p><span>Following the January to March 1,500-dollar slump gold has since held firm during a period of exceptional equity market strength, something that under normal circumstances might have triggered deeper profit-taking. Instead, continued central bank demand, lingering investor unease over inflation, slowing growth and mounting fiscal debt concerns have kept dips relatively shallow.</span></p> <p><span>For now, gold appears to be catching its breath rather than losing its footing, and importantly, the buyers that increasingly matter are looking beyond price.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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Week to 17 March 2026</a><br /> 23 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-hit-by-liquidity-shock-as-war-forces-broad-repricing-23032026" data-id="50F67A23AA494986AA23D3F3047A17CC" data-type="Article">Precious metals hit by liquidity shock as war forces broad repricing</a><br /> 20 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/commodities-weekly-from-energy-shock-to-stagflation-risk-20032026" data-id="93D08C34DCC24E09AC6FE4B16C875D30" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly From energy shock to stagflation risk</a><br /> 18 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-slips-as-macro-headwinds-intensify-and-crowded-longs-unwind-18032026" data-id="9CD683555D5F415F9EEE842EE2678E78" data-type="Article">Gold slips as macro headwinds intensify and crowded longs unwind</a><br /> 18 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/crude-prices-mask-deeper-oil-market-stress-18032026" data-id="E8B4A300B67B49E7A6711B70090BE8AB" data-type="Article">Crude prices mask deeper oil market stress</a><br /> 16 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-10-march-2026-16032026" data-id="28A71D775A8842DF99C5CF6D75337B01" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 March 2026</a><br /> 13 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-update---gold-pauses-above-usd-5000-as-energy-shock--clouds-the-global-outlook-16032026" data-id="78B3FEEC1FD54B09A0A73B9E49BFC214" data-type="Article">Gold pauses above USD 5000 as energy shock clouds the global outlook</a><br /> 11 March 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/middle-east-conflict-puts-worlds-most-critical-energy-chokepoint-in-focus-11032026" data-id="399A5CB8D9FA4A2DB9A87CB31E7F4CB5" data-type="Article">Middle East conflict puts worlds most critical energy chokepoint in focus</a><br /> 19 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/hormuz-risk-premium-returns-as-military-buildup-near-iran-lifts-crude-prices-19022026" data-id="30FD1F3ACF4D4935A924172B12ECBF6F" data-type="Article">Hormuz risk premium returns as military buildup near Iran lifts crude prices</a><br /> 17 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/metals-update-lunar-new-year-lull-exposes-reliance-on-asian-demand-17022026" data-id="A43612704F9E4C489466E9E6BAA1F2E2" data-type="Article">Metals update Lunar New Year lull exposes reliance on Asian demand</a><br /> 16 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-10-feb-2026-16022026" data-id="069D48004D394543B9A59D7F52A385A7" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 10 Feb 2026</a><br /> 13 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/commodities-weekly-ai-disruption-fears-rattle-equities-while-commodities-retain-leadership-13022026" data-id="04D8C0BC80C649518D8AC497339A0127" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly AI disruption fears rattle equities while commodities retain leadership</a><br /> 11 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/agriculture-grains-and-livestock-gains-offset-softs-slump-11022026" data-id="66E82ED15D464734AD9F3CDE9D1C98A3" data-type="Article">Agriculture grains and livestock gains offset softs slump</a><br /> 9 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-3-february-2026-09022026" data-id="6B96A4793A5E49EBB63ECEE1B6959539" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 3 February 2026</a><br /> 6 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/commodities-weekly-liquidity-stress-and-deleveraging-weigh-on-sentiment-06022026" data-id="3BE291B485604881BE8BB5E80BE9BD45" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Liquidity stress and deleveraging weigh on sentiment</a><br /> 5 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-remains-unsettled-as-volatility-and-cross-market-risks-collide-05022026" data-id="F33B64CB2B00426D9C08C04A80A3BD9E" data-type="Article">Silver remains unsettled as volatility and cross-market risks collide</a><br /> 2 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-when-a-record-rally-turns-into-a-record-rout-02022026" data-id="373DF312724E4FFCA1AB3700033B7BE4" data-type="Article">Silver When a record rally turns into a record rout</a><br /> 2 Feb 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-27-january-2026-02022026" data-id="49228E41C1F24BCDA1F7B78D5E62DFEA" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 27 January 2026</a><br /> 30 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/commodities-weekly-metals-pull-back-after-a-volatile-record-setting-month-for-commodities-30012026" data-id="7A77A208A42C4EFAA4E3521D5F6D6547" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Metals pull back after a volatile record-setting month for commodities</a><br /> 28 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/golds-orderly-rally-meets-silvers-chaos-as-the-dollar-comes-under-pressure-28012026" data-id="397D8C9FCE5A47DB8EAAD4D393D0E8FC" data-type="Article">Golds orderly rally meets silvers chaos as the dollar comes under pressure</a><br /> 26 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-20-january-2026-26012026" data-id="C78DA11D86B8413987BB452CE2698EBD" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 20 January 2026</a><br /> 23 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-23012026" data-id="0228FA7182D94751BBAAF43EA2D97B4E" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Hard assets, hard weather: metals lead, gas shocks, cocoa cracks<br /> 22 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/winter-shock-links-gas-markets-worldwide-as-us-freeze-offs-meet-global-lng-competition-22012026" data-id="3CF69C694A34407DA8652CC650615375" data-type="Article">Winter shock links gas markets worldwide as US freeze-offs meet global LNG competition</a><br /> 19 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-13-january-2026-19012026" data-id="F1C01A6A5ECC4008869737BFCD2D86D5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 13 January 2026</a><br /> 19 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/trumps-tariff-threats-over-greenland-push-hard-assets-back-to-centre-stage-19012026" data-id="1BC35BF14C1244978732F4474907CDA9" data-type="Article">Trumps tariff threats over Greenland push hard assets back to centre stage</a><br /> 14 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-at-usd-90-when-hard-asset-demand-meets-momentum-14012026" data-id="035AF04051994B00BB0B695147DBA535" data-type="Article">Silver at USD 90 when hard-asset demand meets momentum</a><br /> 12 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-6-january-2026-12012026" data-id="5B4BF6860DDE49F58F23BD9137431E63" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 6 January 2026</a><br /> 9 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-geopolitics-and-index-rebalance-in-focus-as-2026-begins-09012026" data-id="2B80C3570DB6444D98287D68910437D7" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Geopolitics and index rebalance in focus as 2026 begins</a><br /> 8 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-face-a-test-of-strength-as-annual-index-rebalancing-begins-08012026" data-id="5678B7EB2A7D4AE0B77ACDFCA060C851" data-type="Article">Gold and silver face a test of strength as annual index rebalancing begins</a><br /> 6 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-30-dec-2025-06012026" data-id="54300E1B1A0F4AEA951842918F98A807" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 30 Dec 2025</a><br /> 6 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-silver-and-platinum-regain-momentum-as-2026-opens-with-familiar-risks-and-new-tensions-06012026" data-id="EFE3EF1B24D5425491C584B28D4F6AF8" data-type="Article">Gold silver and platinum regain momentum as 2026 opens with familiar risks and new tensions</a><br /> 5 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-markets-digest-venezuela-shock-disruption-now-optionality-later-05012026" data-id="D3F039A49BDB44859226DB4FD1AD6F74" data-type="Article">Oil markets digest Venezuela shock disruption now optionality later</a><br /> 2 Jan 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/what-the-steepest-us-yield-curve-since-2021-signals-as-2026-begins-02012026" data-id="FC840A3F0E89415AB283233040559E9C" data-type="Article">What the steepest US yield curve since 2021 signals as 2026 begins</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Some relief in software. Eyes on Trump-Xi next week.</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 10:47:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">US jobs report also up today.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/some-relief-in-software-eyes-on-trump-xi-next-week/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.<br /> <br /> <h4><span>Links discussed on today's show:</span></h4> <p><strong>The <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/tracking-trillions-the-assumptions-shaping-scale-of-the-ai-build-out%20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Goldman Sachs research report on "Tracking the Trillions" in AI spending</a> - very thorough look at many of the issues in understanding the risks in the assumptions about chip lifespan and much more.</strong></p> <p><strong>An X post that looks at <a href="https://x.com/i/status/2050551188496515254%20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how the massive cap-ex spend on AI will drive S&P 500 earnings projections through next year</a>, even if balance sheets are less robust on the other side.</strong></p> <p><strong>Craig Tindale's <a href="https://ctindale.substack.com/p/a-castle-lookout-doesnt-wait-for?r=orbm&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">massive work on how we are looking at climate change risks in the wrong way</a>, with risks of ugly feedback loops in key systems that could accelerate change in ways the generalist models aren't.</strong></p> <p><strong> </strong></p> <span ></span></h4> <span ></span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Datadog’s big bark: why AI may not be the end of software</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Datadog’s strong results show AI can boost some software demand</strong>, not only disrupt it.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>The market is separating useful, embedded software from tools that AI may replace</strong> or bundle.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>For investors, the key question is simple:</strong> does AI make the product more necessary?</span></span></p> </span></p> <span> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Datadog just gave the software sector something it badly needed: evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a threat. Sometimes, it is also a customer.</span></p> <p><span>On 7 May 2026, Datadog closed at 188.73 USD up 31.3%, after the company reported stronger than expected first-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. That is not a normal Thursday for a software stock. That is a labrador hearing the word “walk”.</span></p> <p><span>Datadog sells cloud monitoring and security software. In plain English, it helps companies see what is happening inside their digital systems, spot problems, and fix them before customers notice. This is called observability, which sounds like a university word, but really means “do we know what just broke, where, and why?”</span></p> <p><span>The bigger message goes beyond one company. For months, investors have worried that AI will hurt software-as-a-service (SaaS), where customers rent software online instead of buying it once. The fear is simple: if AI agents can write code, handle support, analyse data and automate office tasks, some software tools may become less valuable. Datadog’s results show the story is more nuanced. AI is not taking a flamethrower to software. It is sorting the useful from the replaceable.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The market liked growth with a reason</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Datadog’s first-quarter revenue rose 32% from a year earlier to 1.01 billion USD. The company also lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to between 4.30 billion USD and 4.34 billion USD, above earlier guidance and analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings were 0.60 USD per share, also ahead of expectations, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.</span></p> <p><span>The quality of the growth mattered. Datadog ended the quarter with about 4,550 customers spending at least 100,000 USD in annual recurring revenue, up 21% from a year earlier. Annual recurring revenue means the revenue a company expects to repeat over a year from subscriptions. For investors, this helps show whether customers are staying and expanding, not just signing one-off deals.</span></p> <p><span>The company also generated 289 million USD of free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash left after running and investing in the business. It matters because growth funded by real cash is usually healthier than growth funded mainly by hope, conference slides and very expensive coffee.</span></p> <p><span>This is why the share price reaction was so strong. Investors were not only reacting to a beat. They were reacting to a company that appears to sit where two forces meet: cloud complexity and AI complexity.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>AI is not killing software. It is changing the test</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The old SaaS question was: how many people use the software? The new AI question is: how deeply does the software sit inside the customer’s operations?</span></p> <p><span>That is a big difference. Tools that charge per employee may face pressure if AI reduces headcount or automates tasks. Simple workflow tools may also face bundling risk, where large platforms such as Microsoft, Google or Salesforce add similar features inside broader packages. When a feature becomes part of the furniture, standalone pricing can get harder.</span></p> <p><span>Datadog is a different type of software company. It is closer to digital infrastructure. When companies use more cloud services, more applications, more AI models and more automated agents, their systems become harder to manage. More moving parts mean more things can fail. Datadog sells the control room.</span></p> <p><span>AI may therefore increase the need for observability. Large language models, the systems behind tools such as chatbots and agents, can fail in ways traditional software did not. They can slow down, produce errors, overload systems, or cost too much to run. Companies using AI need to know what is happening across models, graphics processing units (GPUs), data flows, security alerts and customer experiences.</span></p> <p><span>That is the important lesson. AI does not treat all software equally. It pressures some tools, lifts others, and forces every company to prove its relevance.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From selling seats to solving problems</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The SaaS model is also changing. Many older software businesses grew by selling more seats, meaning more users inside a customer. That model works well when employment grows and software spreads across departments. It looks less bulletproof when AI agents can do more work with fewer human clicks.</span></p> <p><span>Datadog’s model benefits more from usage and complexity. If a customer runs more applications, produces more data, or deploys more AI systems, the need for monitoring can rise. This does not make the business risk-free, but it gives investors a clearer reason why AI can be a tailwind.</span></p> <p><span>That distinction is useful across the software sector. A company may be more resilient if it helps customers manage risk, lower costs, protect data, improve uptime, or run AI safely. A company may be more exposed if AI can easily copy its output, reduce its user base, or allow a larger platform to bundle the same function.</span></p> <p><span>In short, software investors now need a sharper filter. “AI exposure” is not enough. Every company claims that, preferably before lunch. The better question is whether AI makes the product more necessary, less necessary, or merely more marketable.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: not every bark means a moat</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are still risks. Datadog’s valuation now reflects a lot of good news, so even small disappointments could matter. Strong growth can support high expectations, but high expectations rarely come with a safety helmet.</span></p> <p><span>Competition is another risk. Cloud providers, security vendors and other software platforms all want more of the same budget. Customers may also try to simplify their software stacks, especially if the economy weakens.</span></p> <p><span>Finally, AI demand itself could become uneven. Companies are still learning how much value they get from AI tools in production. Watch for signs such as slower customer growth, weaker usage expansion, lower free cash flow margins, or management talking more about “long-term opportunity” than near-term adoption.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook: follow the usefulness</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Separate AI labels from AI economics. </strong></span><span>Look for revenue growth, cash flow and customer expansion. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch pricing models.</strong> Usage-based revenue may benefit when digital activity grows. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Check whether AI raises complexity.</strong> More complexity can support monitoring, security and data tools. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Keep position size in context.</strong> Great stories can still become expensive stories. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bigger lesson</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Datadog’s results do not prove that all software is safe from AI disruption. They prove something more useful: the software sector is not one single story. AI can replace some tasks, weaken some pricing models, and make some tools look ordinary. But it can also create new problems that companies must monitor, secure and control. </span></p> <p><span>Datadog rallied because investors saw a software business standing near that control layer. For long-term investors, that is the real takeaway. The AI age may not reward every software company, but it still needs software that keeps the machines from turning the office into a very expensive guessing game.<br /> </span></p> <p><em > This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <span> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p> <p> </p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Iran waits, puts surge - 8 May 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 08:37:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Thursday’s equity session looked quiet. But the options market told a different story: the S&P 500 put/call ratio surged nearly 58% in a single session, while the VIX actually declined. That kind of divergence between falling implied volatility and rising protective put demand is unusual, and it is worth understanding what it signals. Today’s Options Brief covers the PCSX spike and ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Iran waits, puts surge - 8 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A mild equity pullback on the surface – a more telling story in the options flow underneath.</em></p> <p>US equities pulled back Thursday as markets awaited Iran’s formal response to a US peace framework. The headline moves were modest, but the options market told a more cautious story: the S&P 500 put/call ratio surged nearly 58% in a single session while the VIX actually declined, small caps absorbed disproportionate selling, and the CBOE SKEW index confirmed elevated professional demand for downside protection. Here is what the options picture looks like heading into Friday.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>US equities pulled back Thursday as the Iran diplomatic clock kept ticking: the US formally presented Tehran with a one-page memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, re-open the Strait of Hormuz, and begin 30 days of nuclear negotiations – but markets moved lower as investors awaited Iran’s formal response. Heading into Friday’s session, S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly higher, suggesting some revival of deal optimism overnight.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>S&P 500:</strong> closed at 7,337.11 (–0.38%), pulling back from multi-day highs</li> <li><strong>Nasdaq 100:</strong> closed at 28,563.95 (–0.12%), holding up better than the broad market</li> <li><strong>Russell 2000:</strong> closed at 2,839.63 (–1.63%), sharply underperforming – four times the S&P 500’s loss – as small-cap stress continues to build</li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> gained 0.51% to $4,735 (safe-haven bid intact); <strong>WTI crude</strong> edged up 0.27% to $95.07 as Strait of Hormuz tensions stay elevated</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low Vol Bull – VIX 17.1, 20-day realised vol 10.5% (declining), S&P 500 +7.1% above its 50-day moving average</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX (the market’s main fear gauge, measuring the implied volatility of S&P 500 options) closed at 17.08 on Thursday – actually declining 1.78% on a day when equities sold off, staying within the Low Vol Bull regime. The more telling signal was the CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX), which measures how much protective put trading is occurring relative to bullish call activity; it surged 57.89% in a single session to 1.20, a level at which put volume is running meaningfully ahead of calls. What makes this divergence unusual is that implied volatility was actually falling, making puts cheaper, and yet traders were buying more of them anyway – a sign that the hedging activity is driven by conviction rather than panic. The CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, ticked up 0.51% to 136.11, well above its long-run average, confirming that professional positioning is leaning toward protection even as headline vol metrics look calm. Front-month VIX futures at 19.00 sit nearly two full points above spot, a contango structure that reflects the market’s expectation of rising turbulence in coming weeks rather than immediate stress. The VVIX – the volatility of the VIX itself, measuring how much the fear gauge is expected to move – closed at 93.61, broadly stable, suggesting no imminent panic event but equally no sign of complacency setting in.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.<br /> <br /> <strong>Strategy insight – Call spreads exploit the current skew asymmetry</strong>. With SKEW elevated at 136.11, puts are priced at a meaningful premium to equivalent calls, which leaves calls looking relatively cheap by comparison. This asymmetry makes call spreads – buying a call at one strike, selling a call at a higher strike to partially offset the cost – an unusually cost-efficient way to express a bullish view in the current environment. Selling premium outright is tempting when vol is low, but when realised volatility sits at 10.5% and implied vol can spike sharply without warning, the thin premiums collected do not adequately compensate for the potential losses if volatility reverts quickly. A defined-risk call spread lets you participate in continued upside while keeping the maximum loss fixed at the premium paid, with no exposure to a sudden volatility expansion.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – IWM puts offer timely protection at a reasonable cost.</strong> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closely tracks the Russell 2000 index, which fell 1.63% on Thursday – four times the S&P 500’s loss – as rate-sensitive small-cap companies continue to face structural headwinds in a high-rate refinancing environment. For traders with IWM exposure, or those looking to express a bearish small-cap view, buying IWM puts while VIX is in the low 17s and realised volatility is declining offers a strategically sensible entry point. Implied volatility in IWM tends to track VIX direction, meaning current low-vol conditions deliver cheaper insurance than you would find after a volatility event has already occurred. A bearish risk reversal on IWM – buying a put and selling a call against it – can finance that downside coverage at near-zero net cost by collecting the richly priced put skew, and pairing it with a long large-cap position converts the trade into a relative-value expression of small-cap underperformance rather than a pure directional bet on the overall market.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Thursday’s session was mild on the surface – equities barely moved – but the options market told a more cautious story underneath: protective put buying surged to a ratio above 1.20 while VIX actually fell, and small caps absorbed disproportionate selling for the fourth consecutive week. The Low Vol Bull regime is intact, and Friday’s futures are modestly green as Iran deal optimism reasserts itself overnight. Given that puts are expensive and calls are relatively cheap right now, call spreads are the more structurally sound way to express a continued bullish view, while IWM puts offer a cost-effective hedge for those with small-cap exposure at risk. Iran’s formal response to the US peace framework this weekend remains the key binary event – and the elevated put/call ratio suggests the options market is already leaning toward caution before the answer arrives.</p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---amd-blowout-vol-unmoved---7-may-2026-07052026" data-id="568BFAE569164C5FBBAA4D1FFDB69D49" data-type="Article">Options Brief - AMD blowout vol unmoved - 7 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-retreats-records-set---6-may-2026-06052026" data-id="8C57E8877E3E4D53955D44C888428275" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil retreats records set - 6 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---ceasefire-cracks-kospi-soars---5-may-2026-05052026" data-id="D4B279186C2A47FC8083292FA822E86C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---big-tech-divides-oil-surges---30-april-2026-30042026" data-id="9076C52B7D3E4A398EE5B8A960763F98" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Big Tech divides oil surges - 30 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-night-fed-holds---29-april-2026-29042026" data-id="E829D7CC98414B4EB9EE8FB3C5E9C259" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings night Fed holds - 29 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-on-deck---28-april-2026-28042026" data-id="C2697121DE0A4E92B1BD27C9120C4A88" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 8 May 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 06:02:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 8 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US and Europe fell on energy and earnings pressure, Asia weakened as renewed US-Iran clashes lifted oil</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX subdued, oil and Iran tensions in focus, payrolls ahead</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin below USD 80k, ETF outflows pressure sentiment, crypto equities weaker, defensive miner hedging</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US Treasury yields rebound ahead of April US jobs report</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> The US dollar firmed slightly ahead of today’s US jobs data</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Fading optimism lifts crude and gold, while cocoa surges on El Niño fears</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> US Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls Change, US Apr. Unemployment Rate</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US forces said they intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks </strong>on three Navy destroyers as the vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. This is a further testing the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s nominal cash earnings rose 2.7% year-on-year in March 2026, slowing from a revised 3.4% gain in February</strong> and missing the 3.2% consensus forecast. Real wages rose 1.0%, down from February’s revised 2.0% increase. Regular/base pay rose 3.2%, while overtime pay increased 1.9%.</li> <li><strong>US one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April 2026</strong>, the highest in a year, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Expected gasoline-price inflation fell sharply to 5.1% from March’s spike, but uncertainty around inflation expectations increased. Expected earnings growth rose to 2.7%, while the perceived probability of higher unemployment rose to 43.9%, the highest since April 2025.</li> <li><strong>US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2</strong>, still below the 205,000 consensus forecast and consistent with a firm labor market. Continuing claims fell by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the prior week, a two-year low.</li> <li><strong>The US Court of International Trade ruled against Trump’s latest 10% global tariffs.</strong> The ruling was narrow, blocking enforcement only for two importers and Washington state, after the court found that the administration had not met the statute’s “large and serious” balance-of-payments threshold.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> · 0600 – Germany Mar. Industrial Production<br /> · 0945 – US Fed Cook to speak on asset tokenization<br /> · 1100 – US Fed’s Miran interview<br /> · 1230 – US Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls Change<br /> · 1230 – US Apr. Unemployment Rate<br /> · 1230 – US Apr. Average Hourly Earnings<br /> · 1230 – Canada Employment Data<br /> · 1400 – US May Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Survey </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <div> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday (yesterday): </strong>Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income, KKR, Rheinmetall</li> <li><strong>Friday (today):</strong> Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Next week</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Monday</strong>: Petrobras, Constellation Energy, AST SpaceMobile</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings</li> </ul> </div> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,337.11, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% to 25,806.20 as chip strength faded and nine of 11 sectors declined. Broadcom fell 3.0% on worries around AI chip financing, while Zoetis sank 21.5% after missing earnings expectations and cutting guidance. Datadog jumped 31.3% after lifting its annual outlook on strong cloud security demand, while McDonald’s gained slightly after better revenue and earnings, helped by value offers and larger burgers. After the close, Expedia and Coinbase fell, keeping earnings quality in focus.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1%, its biggest loss since March 26, while the FTSE 100 dropped 1.5% to 10,276.95, Germany’s DAX fell 1.0% to 24,663.61, and France’s CAC declined 1.2%. Energy and defence led the pullback as US-Iran peace hopes lowered the perceived risk premium in oil and military spending. Shell fell 2.9% after cutting its buyback despite stronger profit, while BAE Systems and Babcock International fell on peace deal hopes. Campari sank 14.5% after missing revenue expectations, and Tenaris lost 6.7% on cautious second-quarter guidance.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities opened lower Friday after renewed US-Iran clashes pushed oil higher and cooled risk appetite, especially after a strong AI-led rally earlier in the week. Japan’s Topix fell 0.4% to 3,825.84 and the Nikkei declined 0.6% to 62,448.45, while South Korea’s KOSPI opened 1.8% lower at 7,353.94 and later fell as much as 2.0%. Hong Kong was positioned for declines as the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index lost 0.9%. Datasection jumped 13.0% to an 11-week high, while OCBC reported a 5% rise in quarterly profit, helped by wealth management and fee income.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility remained relatively contained despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East</strong>. The S&P 500 closed at 7,337.11, down 0.38%, while the<strong> VIX edged lower to 17.08</strong>, suggesting investors remain cautious but are not yet pricing in broader market stress. Oil prices continue to be the key macro driver, with Brent crude holding above USD 100 as markets monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of supply disruptions. Investors are also focused on today’s US payrolls report, which could influence expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.</li> <li>Options pricing<strong> implies an expected SPX move of roughly 40.6 points, or 0.55%, into today’s expiry.</strong></li> <li>The daily 0DTE skew indicator continued to lean bullish, with near-the-money calls around the 7,335–7,340 strikes trading at higher implied volatility than comparable puts, <strong>signalling more tactical upside participation than aggressive downside hedging</strong>.</li> <li>Meanwhile, <strong>options flow remained balanced overall</strong>, with investors continuing to sell SPX premium to generate income while selectively maintaining downside protection in technology-heavy exposure.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets traded softer overnight</strong> as geopolitical tensions and weaker risk appetite pushed Bitcoin back below the USD 80,000 level. <strong>Bitcoin traded near USD 79,700</strong>, while <strong>Ether held around USD 2,280</strong>, with Solana near USD 88 and XRP around USD 1.39. The broader tone remains cautious rather than outright bearish, but ETF flows continue to weigh on sentiment.</li> <li><strong>US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately USD 268.5 million in net outflows on Thursday</strong>, including nearly USD 98 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, while Ether ETFs lost around USD 103.6 million, including roughly USD 26 million from ETHA.</li> <li><strong>Crypto-linked equities also weakened</strong>, with Coinbase, MicroStrategy and several mining stocks trading lower alongside Bitcoin. Options flow showed investors adding downside hedges in miners such as IREN and RIOT, although selective upside positioning remained visible in names including MicroStrategy and Coinbase through longer-dated call activity.</li> <li>For investors, the <strong>crypto market continues to balance improving institutional adoption trends against a macro backdrop</strong> that remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broader risk sentiment.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) trades down 1.5% on the week</strong>, trimming its year-to-date gain to 27.5%, as optimism—so far unfounded—over a resolution to the Iran conflict helped push energy and grain prices lower, while precious and industrial metals staged a rebound. The biggest weekly losers into Friday’s session are Brent crude, gas oil, coffee and wheat, while silver leads gains with a near 5% advance, followed by copper and platinum. The standout performer has been cocoa, with futures surging almost 25% as renewed El Niño weather fears triggered aggressive short covering.</li> <li><strong>Brent crude trades firmer, holding above USD 100 after another volatile week</strong> that saw an almost USD 20 trading range as Middle East headlines swung sentiment between optimism and frustration. The key point remains unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with renewed clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces lowering the prospect of a near-term reopening. The IEA estimates regional supply losses at around 14 million barrels per day, only partly offset by surging U.S. exports, strategic reserve releases and demand destruction.</li> <li><strong>Gold trades modestly higher on the week but remains rangebound</strong>, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance is seen at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,780, followed by USD 4,850. Its resilience during a period of exceptional equity market strength points to continued central bank demand as well as lingering investor unease over inflation, economic growth and mounting fiscal debt concerns.</li> <li><strong>Cocoa futures surged to a nine-month high, rising around 23% on the week </strong>on concerns a renewed El Niño weather pattern may bring drier conditions to West Africa, threatening crop yields. Elevated fertilizer costs and the recent month-long price slump have further strained farmer economics. For now, however, the rally appears primarily driven by short covering after speculators - wrong-footed by the recent rebound - built the largest net short position since November 2022.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasury yields rebounded Thursday ahead of Friday’s US April jobs data</strong>, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield rebounding about five basis points to 3.92% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield backing up four basis points to 4.39%.</li> <li><strong>After a steep drop in European yields on the crude oil price drop</strong>,<strong> yields stabilized Thursday</strong>, with the benchmark <strong>2-year German Schatz nudging slightly higher to 2.585%</strong>, while the <strong>benchmark 10-year German Bund hovered near 3.00%</strong>, the middle of the range since late March and psychologically key.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar remains rangebound ahead of Friday’s US April jobs report</strong>, with <strong>USDJPY </strong>trading near 156.85, the middle of the range that has been established since Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened to strengthen the JPY forcefully on April 30th. <strong>EURUSD </strong>is likewise in the middle of the recent range after feints towards 1.1800 have been brushed back and the pair trades near 1.1735 early Friday. <strong>AUDUSD </strong>dipped back toward 0.7220 after extending to multi-year highs on Wednesday to as high as 0.7278 – fresh longs will want the prior range high of 0.7200 to hold to maintain an upside view.</li> <li><strong>Sweden’s Riksbank maintained a very cautious stance</strong> on signalling any new policy intentions after the recent run higher in energy prices. This sent future Riksbank rate hike expectations and the Swedish krona lower. <strong>EURSEK </strong>has risen to the top of the range since mid-April just south of 10.90.</li> <li><strong>Norway’s Norges Bank surprised many with a 25-basis point rate hike </strong>and signalling that another rate hike may lie ahead this year. The policy rate now stands at 4.25%. Alas, Norway’s recent strength has chiefly been driven by energy prices, which have recently fallen back. After a burst of NOK strength, <strong>EURNOK </strong>ended Thursday nearly unchanged at 10.92.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>DBS, UOB or OCBC: Which Singapore bank fits your portfolio?</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 04:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ol start="1"> <li><strong><span>The easy margin tailwind is fading, but the bank story is not.</span></strong><span><br /> Singapore banks remain profitable, well-capitalised and dividend-rich, but the latest earnings show that investors can no longer rely on net interest margins alone to drive the sector. The next phase will be more about fee income, wealth management, capital returns and credit discipline.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wealth management is becoming the clearest differentiator.</span></strong><span><br /> DBS continues to show scale and franchise strength, OCBC delivered the strongest wealth-fee momentum this quarter, while UOB has a clear ASEAN wealth ambition but still needs to show stronger execution. This is where the three banks are starting to look less alike.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Investors need to choose by portfolio role, not just by dividend yield.</span></strong><span><br /> DBS looks like the quality and income anchor, OCBC looks like the improving wealth-led story, and UOB remains the ASEAN franchise that may require more patience. The sector still offers resilience, but stock selection is becoming more important.</span></li> </ol> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>The old Singapore bank trade is changing</span></h2> <p><span>Singapore banks have been among the clearest winners of the higher-rate cycle. For several years, higher interest rates helped lift net interest margins, profitability and capital returns. Investors could almost think of DBS, UOB and OCBC as different versions of the same trade: strong balance sheets, attractive dividends and steady exposure to Singapore’s financial strength.</span></p> <p><span>That phase is changing.</span></p> <p><span>The latest earnings show that the old playbook — higher rates equal stronger bank profits — is no longer enough. Net interest margins are under pressure as benchmark rates soften, loan growth remains modest, and the macro backdrop is becoming more complicated because of oil-price volatility, geopolitical risks and uneven regional growth.</span></p> <p><span>The good news is that this is not a weakness story. Singapore banks remain resilient. But it is becoming a more selective story. The question for investors is no longer simply whether Singapore banks are attractive. It is which bank best fits the role they want in a portfolio.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Earnings comparison: DBS, UOB and OCBC</span></h2> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Themes from the earnings season</span></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>1. Net interest margins are no longer doing all the work</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The most obvious message from the results is that the peak-rate boost is fading. DBS, UOB and OCBC are all seeing some pressure from lower interest rates or narrower margins. That does not break the bank thesis, but it changes what investors should focus on.</span></p> <p><span>During the rising-rate cycle, higher margins were the simple sector-wide tailwind. Now, banks will need to defend returns through a broader earnings mix. That puts more weight on fee income, wealth management, treasury customer activity, cost control and asset quality.</span></p> <p><span>In other words, the sector is moving from a rate story to an execution story.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>2. Wealth management is the new battleground</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The clearest differentiator this quarter was wealth management.</span></p> <p><span>DBS still has the deepest and most established wealth platform. Its record income and strong capital return show that the franchise remains difficult to beat. For investors, DBS continues to look like the quality leader — but because it is already viewed that way, expectations are also higher.</span></p> <p><span>OCBC showed the strongest improvement in wealth momentum. Its wealth management fees rose sharply, helping offset margin pressure and driving a better-than-expected earnings result. The planned acquisition of HSBC’s wealth and premier banking portfolio in Indonesia also gives OCBC a more visible regional wealth-growth angle.</span></p> <p><span>UOB has the ambition, but the market may want more evidence. Its ASEAN network gives it a strong long-term platform, and management has a clear target to grow wealth income over time. But this quarter’s softer overall fee income means investors may wait for stronger delivery before assigning a higher growth premium.</span></p> <p><span>The key point: all three banks are talking about wealth, but they are not in the same position. DBS has scale, OCBC has momentum, and UOB has potential.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>3. Capital return still matters, but it is no longer the whole story</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Singapore banks remain attractive to many investors because of dividends and capital returns. DBS stands out most clearly here, with its strong dividend and capital return profile continuing to support the investment case.</span></p> <p><span>But dividend yield alone is not enough. If margins keep compressing, investors will want to know whether capital returns are backed by sustainable earnings growth. That means fee income and wealth growth matter even more.</span></p> <p><span>A high payout can support a stock, but a stronger earnings mix can sustain it.</span></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>4. Asset quality remains manageable, but risks are rising</span></strong></h4> <p><span>There is no sign of a broad credit problem in the latest results. That is important. Singapore banks still look well-capitalised and disciplined.</span></p> <p><span>But investors should not ignore the macro risks. Higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and slower regional trade can all affect loan demand, borrower stress and provisioning needs. OCBC’s higher allowances are a reminder that banks are preparing for a less predictable environment.</span></p> <p><span>For now, asset quality is not the problem. But it is the risk to watch if the macro backdrop worsens.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Bank-by-bank read</span></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>DBS: the quality leader, but priced for strength</span></strong></h4> <p><span>DBS remains the benchmark among the three Singapore banks. Its Q1 net profit rose 1% year-on-year to S$2.93 billion, while total income reached a record level. That matters because it shows DBS is still able to defend profitability even as the rate tailwind becomes less powerful.</span></p> <p><span>The strength of DBS lies in its scale, wealth franchise, treasury customer activity and capital return profile. It continues to look like the most complete banking franchise in Singapore. For income-focused investors, the dividend and capital return story remains a major attraction.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is that DBS is already treated as the best-in-class name. That leaves less room for disappointment. If earnings growth becomes more modest, investors may become more sensitive to valuation and ask whether the premium remains justified.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens:</span></strong><span> DBS remains the quality and income anchor, but the stock needs continued proof that wealth and fee income can offset margin pressure.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>OCBC: the improving story with wealth momentum</span></strong></h4> <p><span>OCBC delivered the strongest positive surprise this quarter. Net profit rose 5% year-on-year to S$1.97 billion, helped by strong non-interest income and a sharp rise in wealth management fees.</span></p> <p><span>This is important because OCBC has often been viewed as the more conservative Singapore bank. The latest results suggest that its wealth engine is gaining momentum, and that could make the stock more interesting in a market that is looking beyond NIM.</span></p> <p><span>The Indonesia wealth acquisition adds another layer to the story. It strengthens OCBC’s regional wealth platform and gives it exposure to a market with long-term affluence growth. That said, integration and execution will matter.</span></p> <p><span>The main caveat is provisions. Higher allowances may simply be prudent risk management in a more uncertain world, but investors should watch whether they remain precautionary or become a sign of rising credit stress.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens:</span></strong><span> OCBC looks like the strongest improvement story this quarter, with wealth momentum helping close some of the perception gap with DBS.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong><span>UOB: the ASEAN franchise that needs stronger proof</span></strong></h4> <p><span>UOB’s quarter was more subdued. Net profit fell 4% year-on-year to S$1.44 billion, with lower rates, softer net interest income, weaker fees and lower trading income weighing on results.</span></p> <p><span>This does not make UOB a weak bank. It remains profitable, well-capitalised and strategically positioned across ASEAN. Its regional footprint gives investors exposure to Southeast Asia’s long-term growth, rising wealth and cross-border trade flows.</span></p> <p><span>But the latest results show that the market may need more evidence before rewarding UOB with a stronger rerating. Its wealth ambition is credible, but execution needs to become more visible. Compared with DBS and OCBC, UOB currently looks more like a steady ASEAN income story than a near-term earnings acceleration story.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens:</span></strong><span> UOB may appeal to investors willing to wait for ASEAN and wealth execution, but it needs stronger fee and earnings momentum to close the gap with peers.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What could change the view?</span></h2> <ul> <li><span>A faster fall in rates would put more pressure on net interest margins and make wealth management even more important. In that scenario, DBS and OCBC may have an advantage if their fee momentum continues.</span></li> <li><span>A renewed inflation or oil shock could complicate the picture. Higher-for-longer rates may support margins at the margin, but they could also hurt borrowers, raise credit risks and weaken investor confidence. That would shift attention back to balance-sheet quality and provisioning discipline.</span></li> <li><span>Stronger market sentiment would support wealth and investment-related fees across all three banks. This could help the sector, but especially the banks with the strongest wealth platforms and affluent-client reach.</span></li> <li><span>A deterioration in credit quality would be the biggest risk to the sector. So far, asset quality looks manageable, but investors should watch provisions, non-performing loans and management commentary closely.</span></li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>How investors may choose between the three</span></h2> <p><span>A simpler way to think about the three banks is to start with the investor’s objective:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Looking for quality and income?</span></strong><span><br /> DBS remains the clearest fit. It has the strongest franchise, the largest earnings base and the most visible capital return story. The trade-off is valuation: investors are paying for that quality, so expectations are higher.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Looking for an improving earnings story?</span></strong><span><br /> OCBC looks more interesting after this earnings round. Wealth-fee growth was strong, earnings beat expectations, and the Indonesia wealth expansion adds a regional growth angle. The key question is whether this momentum can continue if markets become more volatile.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Looking for ASEAN exposure with patience?</span></strong><span><br /> UOB remains relevant. Its regional franchise is valuable, but the latest earnings suggest investors may need to see stronger fee growth and operating leverage before treating it as more than a steady income play.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The simplest framing: <strong>DBS offers quality, OCBC offers improvement, and UOB offers ASEAN optionality.</strong></span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Bottom line</span></h2> <p><span>Singapore banks remain resilient, but the investment case is becoming more selective.</span></p> <p><span>The sector is no longer just a simple high-rate beneficiary. The next phase will depend on which banks can protect returns through wealth management, fee income, disciplined capital returns and strong asset quality.</span></p> <p><span>DBS remains the quality leader. OCBC has the strongest improvement story from this earnings round. UOB remains a solid ASEAN franchise, but it needs more proof of acceleration.</span></p> <p><span>The Singapore bank trade is not over. It is just becoming more demanding. And in a market where easy tailwinds are fading, that differentiation may be exactly what investors should welcome.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Explore more</span></h2> <p><span>Investors who want to go beyond comparing the three banks may also find these useful:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/xq3ajeb?uuid=gbMlCwG">Singapore Stocks shortlist</a></span></strong><span> — look beyond banks into Singapore-listed industrials and AI-related themes.</span></li> <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/axjfxym?uuid=gbMlCwG">Dividend Aristocrats shortlist</a></span></strong><span> — explore other cash-generative companies with a track record of shareholder returns.</span></li> <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/ilsuut0?uuid=gbMlCwG">Margin Lending to supercharge dividend yield</a></span></strong><span> — learn how eligible holdings may be used more efficiently, while understanding the added risks of borrowing.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Singapore</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 8 May, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 08 May 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US forces intercept unprovoked Iranian attacks</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities:</span></strong></span><span> Stocks retreated on Iranian attacks; Iren gains 7% on Nvidia deal</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar bounces on US-Iran deal doubts and strong data; yen weak</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Cocoa futures post biggest jump in nearly nine months</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>US Treasury yields climbed across the curve</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and carried out self-defense strikes as destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong></span><span>, escalating regional tensions.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s average cash earnings rose 2.7% y/y in March 2025</span></strong></span><span>, down from 3.4% and below the 3.2% forecast, with base pay up 1.9% and real wages up 1%, both slowing from February.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the highest in a year, while three- and five-year expectations stayed at 3.1% and 3.0%. Households cut expected gas and other price gains, but uncertainty rose; earnings growth expectations increased to 2.7% and unemployment expectations to 43.9%, the highest since April 2025.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the last week of April</span></strong></span><span>, still below forecasts and near historic lows. Continuing claims fell by 10,000 to 1.77 million, a two-year low, underscoring labor-market strength. Federal employee claims edged down to 438.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>A federal trade court ruled Trump’s global tariffs unlawful for lacking evidence of balance-of-payments deficits, blocking enforcement of the 10% duties against two companies and Washington state.</span></strong></span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US: </span></strong><span>S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,337.11, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.1% to 25,806.20. Nine of 11 sectors declined, led by materials and energy. <strong>Broadcom contributed the most to the S&P 500 decline, falling 3.0%</strong>, while Zoetis had the largest drop at 21.5%. <strong>Datadog surged 31% in its biggest jump since 2019 after it raised its annual forecast on strong demand for cloud security products. McDonald's also reported revenue and earnings that beat estimates on higher value offerings and bigger burgers. </strong>In after-hours trading, Expedia shares dropped 5.3% following results as growth guidance was slightly below estimates.<strong> Coinbase also fell 4.7% after reporting a surprise Q1 2026 loss of $0.17/share vs an estimate of $0.36/share profit.</strong> It also missed revenue estimates while revenue fell to $1.41b from $2.03b a year ago. <strong>Iren was up as much as 25% before falling after Nvidia invests $2.1b via a 5 year right to buy up to 30M shares at an exercise price of $70.</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU:</span></strong><span> European stocks fell on Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declining 1.1%, marking the biggest loss since March 26. Energy stocks weighed heavily as Shell dropped 2.9% after cutting its buyback. The FTSE 100 tumbled 1.5% to 10,276.95, with defense stocks BAE Systems and Babcock International falling on peace deal hopes. Germany's DAX fell 1.0% to 24,663.61, while France's CAC declined 0.8%. Davide Campari-Milano sank 14.5% after missing revenue estimates, while Tenaris retreated 6.9% on cautious second-quarter guidance. Seventy-seven of 100 FTSE 100 shares fell, while 427 of 600 Stoxx 600 shares declined.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia:</span></strong><span> Asian markets opened mixed on Friday following overnight US-Iran clashes. Japan's Topix fell 0.4% to 3,825.84 while the Nikkei declined 0.6% to 62,448.45 as oil prices jumped, retreating from Wednesday's record high. South Korea's KOSPI opened sharply lower, falling 1.8% to 7,353.94 and later dropping as much as 2.0% to 7,337.74. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was positioned for declines as the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index lost 0.9%. Individual stock movers included Datasection, which jumped 13% to an 11-week high. <strong>OCBC’s Q1 2026 net profit rose 5% YoY to S$1.97bn, beating estimates, driven by record non-interest and wealth management income despite lower net interest income.</strong></span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Friday</span></strong><span>: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> inched higher, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1%, as uncertainty over a possible US-Iran energy deal kept oil volatile. Expectations for a stronger US jobs report and ongoing inflation concerns boosted bets on future Fed rate hikes, supporting the currency.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>JPY</span></strong></span><span> weakened as <strong>USDJPY</strong> rose 0.3% to 156.87 after Japan’s holiday break, with officials signalling they are considering intervention from “all angles” following an estimated $30 billion spent on recent FX operations. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>NOK</span></strong></span><span> slipped slightly as <strong>USDNOK</strong> climbed 0.1% to 9.3100 after an unexpected rate hike by Norges Bank. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EUR</span></strong></span><span> inched up, with EURUSD rising 0.1% to 1.1735, while the<strong> GBP</strong> weakened, with <strong>GBPUSD</strong> down 0.2% to 1.3563.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUD</span></strong></span><span> slipped 0.1% to 0.7204 as renewed US-Iran tensions hurt risk sentiment and lifted oil prices. <strong>CAD</strong> also weakened, with <strong>USDCAD</strong> rising 0.23% to 1.3666.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Oil </span></strong><span>jumped following renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces, with Brent rising as much as 2.5% toward $103 a barrel and WTI near $97, snapping a three-day dropS as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated.</span></li> <li><span>Comex <strong>silver </strong>surged 3.76% to $79.701 per troy ounce, rising for three consecutive sessions and gaining 9.07% over the last three sessions to reach its highest settlement since April 20, 2026.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Cocoa </span></strong><span>futures jumped the most in almost nine months in New York, climbing as much as 10% on Thursday amid significant short covering as traders grew concerned that the El Niño weather pattern may damage crops in West Africa.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasury yields</span></strong><span> rose across the curve on Thursday, with the 10-year yield climbing 4.4 basis points to 4.394% and the 30-year yield advancing 3.7 basis points to 4.976%, as oil price volatility and inflation concerns weighed on bonds.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Australian bonds </span></strong><span>were set to fall for the first time in a week, with the implied yield on 3-year note futures adding 4.5 basis points to 4.655% and 10-year bond futures rising 5 basis points to 4.995% as renewed US-Iran clashes triggered a rebound in oil prices.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Investment-grade bond funds</span></strong><span> saw their biggest inflows since September 2020 at $6.88 billion for the week ended May 6, while high-yield notes attracted $643.2 million in inflows and Treasuries experienced $1.3 billion in outflows.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Rheinmetall earnings: a miss, a margin win, and a much bigger defence story</h1> <p>Thu, 07 May 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p data-start="419" data-end="570" class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p class="text--body"><span></span></p> <p class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Rheinmetall missed first-quarter expectations,</strong> but backlog and guidance still support the bigger defence story.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>European defence spending is moving</strong> from political promise to industrial execution.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Investors should watch deliveries, margins, cash flow and valuations</strong>, not only order headlines.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span> <p><span>Defence investing used to sound like a niche policy corner. In Europe, it now looks like a major industrial cycle with steel, software, shipyards and a lot of paperwork. </span></p> <p><span>On 7 May 2026, Rheinmetall reported first-quarter results that were mixed rather than weak. The German company makes military vehicles, ammunition, air-defence systems, digital defence equipment and, after its Naval Vessels Lürssen acquisition, naval systems. Sales reached 1.94 billion EUR, up 8% from a year earlier, and operating profit rose 17% to 224 million EUR. The margin improved to 11.6%.</span></p> <p><span>The problem was expectations. Sales came in below analyst forecasts (as reported by Bloomberg), especially in vehicles and ammunition. After an initially calmer reaction to the early release, Rheinmetall shares fell after the full results gave investors more detail on where the shortfall came from. The message was simple: the defence demand story remains strong, but even defence companies cannot turn orders into revenue by simply shouting “capacity” at a factory wall.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Chart generated using ASKB by Bloomberg AI. </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The quarter was not bad. It was awkward.</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first-quarter miss had several moving parts. Vehicle Systems sales were held back by military trucks already produced but not yet called off by the German armed forces. Weapon and Ammunition sales were slower than expected, partly due to the ramp-up of the Murcia ammunition plant in Spain after a fire in 2025. Naval Systems added only one month of contribution after the acquisition closed.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because Rheinmetall’s 2026 guidance is ambitious. Management still expects sales of 14 billion EUR to 14.5 billion EUR this year and an operating margin of around 19%. To get there, the year needs a much stronger second half. This is not unusual in defence, where large deliveries can land unevenly. But it does raise the bar for execution.</span></p> <p><span>The positive side is the order book. Rheinmetall’s backlog reached 73 billion EUR at the end of March, up strongly from a year earlier and helped by 5.5 billion EUR from Naval Systems. Backlog is not the same as cash, but it is visibility. For a business that builds complex equipment over long periods, visibility is valuable. A full restaurant is good. A full kitchen still needs chefs.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Europe is moving from speeches to spending</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Rheinmetall’s quarter sits inside a much larger European shift. The European Union (EU) is trying to mobilise up to 800 billion EUR for defence under its Readiness 2030 plan. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has also moved the spending debate higher, with allies committing to spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on core defence and broader security-related areas by 2035.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the important point is not the exact political slogan. It is the direction. European countries are trying to rebuild ammunition stocks, strengthen air and missile defence, modernise vehicles, add drones, improve cyber defence and secure supply chains. The shopping list is long. Sadly, there is no “add all to basket” button.</span></p> <p><span>Rheinmetall is trying to position itself across that list. It has moved into naval systems through Naval Vessels Lürssen and has submitted a non-binding offer for German Naval Yards Kiel. It is also in talks with Middle East customers for up to 10 air-defence systems for delivery in 2026. The company is no longer just a land-vehicles and ammunition story. It wants to be a broader European defence platform.</span></p> <p><span>That broader scope is useful, but it adds complexity. Shipyards, ammunition plants, electronics, skilled labour, explosives, regulation and export approvals all have their own bottlenecks. More demand helps, but production still needs permits, people and parts.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Orders are not earnings</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The key investor lesson is simple: defence is becoming more attractive strategically, but the business model is not magic. Governments place orders. Companies invest in capacity. Suppliers scale up. Products get delivered. Cash arrives later. Sometimes much later.</span></p> <p><span>That makes Rheinmetall a useful case study for the whole sector. A large backlog supports future sales, but margins decide how much profit comes through. Working capital, meaning cash tied up in inventory and receivables, can rise when companies build ahead of delivery. Rheinmetall’s operating free cash flow was negative in the quarter, partly because inventory rose to support future growth.</span></p> <p><span>This is why investors should look beyond order headlines. The useful questions are practical. Can the company deliver on time? Are margins improving or being squeezed by labour and material costs? Is cash flow following profit? Are budgets turning into signed contracts? In defence, the battle for returns is often fought in procurement offices and production halls, not only on the front page.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: the boom still has brakes</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is execution. Rheinmetall’s guidance depends on a strong catch-up in the coming quarters. Early warning signs would include further delivery delays, slower call-offs from governments, weaker margins or another rise in cash tied up in inventories.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is politics. Defence spending is rising, but governments still face budget pressures. If growth slows, debt concerns rise or elections change priorities, some programmes could be delayed. Defence is strategic, but it still needs parliamentary approval. Democracy has many strengths. Speed is not always one of them.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is technology. Recent conflicts have increased demand for drones, air defence, missiles, electronic warfare and ammunition. Traditional platforms like tanks and armoured vehicles still matter, but investors should watch whether future budgets keep shifting toward faster, cheaper and more digital systems.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate defence-policy momentum from company execution</strong>. Bigger budgets only matter when they become deliveries. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare backlog growth with margins and cash flow. </strong>Orders are useful, but cash pays the bills. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Think across the supply chain: </strong>ammunition, sensors, cyber, shipyards, vehicles, logistics and power infrastructure. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Keep valuation discipline. </strong>A good theme can still become expensive when everyone sees it. </span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The factory floor has the final word</strong></h3> <p><span>Rheinmetall’s quarter is a useful reminder that Europe’s defence story has entered a new phase. The easy part was recognising that Europe needs to spend more. The harder part is building the factories, ships, shells, systems and supply chains that turn policy into readiness. </span></p> <p><span>Rheinmetall has the backlog, market position and strategic relevance to remain central to that story. It also has the execution burden that comes with being central. For long-term investors, the lesson is balanced: Europe’s defence cycle looks structural, but returns will depend on delivery. In this market, the order book opens the door. The factory floor decides who walks through it.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><em >This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <p class="text--body"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - AMD blowout, vol unmoved - 7 May 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 07 May 2026 07:56:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The Nasdaq 100 added +2.08%. AMD surged 13%+ after a blowout Q1 beat. European indices outperformed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 adding 2.68% and the European banking sector the day’s strongest performer at +3.80%. And the VIX? Up 0.06%. That vol-indifference signal - markets at records, fear gauge unmoved - is actually the most interesting read of the session</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief – AMD blowout, vol unmoved – 7 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>The AI trade roared back in a single session — and the volatility market barely noticed.</em></p> <p>AMD reported blowout Q1 2026 results after Tuesday’s close, triggering a broad AI-linked risk rally that carried both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to fresh all-time closing records on Wednesday. Super Micro Computer surged 18% and Corning jumped 17% on a Nvidia partnership, making it a clean sweep for the semiconductor space. Yet the VIX closed essentially unchanged at 17.39 — a vol-indifference signal that confirmed the market regime as LOW VOL BULL and pointed decisively toward short-premium strategies as the structural trade of the session. This brief covers what happened, what the vol market is saying, and how to position for Thursday’s follow-through.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>AMD reported Q1 2026 revenue of $10.25 billion, up 38% year-on-year, with data centre revenue reaching $5.8 billion — a 57% increase — driven by surging demand for EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI GPUs. Q2 guidance of $11.2 billion came in well ahead of expectations. The results sparked a broad AI-sector rally on Wednesday, with AMD shares surging more than 13%, Super Micro Computer adding 18%, and Corning jumping 17% on a newly announced Nvidia partnership. Progress on US–Iran peace negotiations added a geopolitical risk-on tailwind, amplifying the session’s gains across US and European markets alike.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p><em>Wednesday 6 May 2026 closes:</em></p> <ul> <li>US equities closed at all-time highs across the board. The S&P 500 rose 1.46% to 7,365.12, the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.08% to 28,599.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.24% to 49,910.59, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.47% to 2,886.77. </li> <li>European indices outperformed: the Euro Stoxx 50 closed +2.68% at 6,027.14, the DAX +2.12% at 24,918.69, the CAC 40 +2.94% at 8,299.43, and the European banking sector index added 3.80% — the strongest sector in Europe on the day. The AEX gained 1.67% to 1,031.44, the BEL20 added 2.11% to 5,555.15, and the Hang Seng closed +1.56% at 26,623.94. </li> <li>WTI crude settled at 95.74 (+0.69%) and Brent at 101.96 (+0.68%), both resilient despite the Iran peace headlines. </li> <li>Gold continued its steady recovery at 4,706.4 (+0.26%) and silver gained 1.17% to 78.21. </li> <li>Fixed income was largely unmoved: the US 10-year yield sat flat at 4.354%, the 2-year at 3.872%, and the 30-year at 4.936% — no flight-to-quality bond bid and no rate-path repricing. </li> <li>The dollar weakened modestly, with DXY slipping 0.48% to 98.015.</li> </ul> <p><em>Thursday 7 May 2026 — pre-market, ~06:30 CET:</em></p> <ul> <li>S&P 500 futures +0.05% at 7,393.00, Nasdaq 100 futures –0.04% at 28,705.50, Russell 2000 futures +0.12% at 2,898.80. </li> <li>Futures signal a muted follow-through open — the AI-driven momentum from Wednesday is pausing and digesting in the overnight session rather than extending.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market regime:</strong> LOW VOL BULL — VIX 17.4, 20-day realised volatility 10.2% (declining), S&P 500 +7.59% above its 50-day moving average. The regime has been continuously confirmed LOW VOL BULL across several sessions, reinforcing the structural edge for short-premium strategies.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed Wednesday at 17.39, up just 0.06% against a 1.46% S&P 500 advance to a record — a textbook vol-indifference reading. The 20-day realised volatility has compressed further to 10.2% annualised and continues to trend lower, deepening the gap between implied and realised movement that structurally favours premium sellers. The short end of the vol term structure adds nuance: the 1-day VIX (VIX1D) rose 8.47% to 11.66 while the 9-day measure (VIX9D) edged up 0.82% to 14.76 — Thursday’s session carries slightly elevated near-term event pricing, though both readings remain at historically suppressed absolute levels. Front-month VIX futures settled at 19.200 (–0.66%), a 1.81-point premium above spot, with the second-month contract at 20.550 (–0.71%), maintaining a mild but persistent contango that generates roll decay for short-volatility positions over time.</p> <p>VVIX — the implied volatility of VIX options, a measure of “vol of vol” — eased 1.64% to 93.70, well below the 100 threshold that typically marks a transition to stressed conditions, confirming that vol sellers are relaxed. SKEW retreated 2.39% to 135.42, but remains historically elevated and above the 130 level that typically marks active institutional tail-protection demand — a reminder that some participants are quietly maintaining deep out-of-the-money put coverage even as broader sentiment turns emphatically bullish. Options sentiment flipped hard across every category in a single session: the equity put/call ratio (PCC) collapsed 21.74% to 0.629, the index put/call ratio (PCCI) fell 33.66% to 0.707, the single-stock put/call ratio (PCSX) dropped 34.48% to 0.76, and the equity ETF put/call ratio (PCCE) declined 13.27% to 0.557. The breadth of this synchronised rotation — all four measures moving together by significant margins — makes this a high-conviction sentiment flip, not noise.</p> <p><span><strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</span><br /> <br /> <strong>Strategy insight – post-earnings vol crush: the covered call window on AMD</strong>. When a stock reports blowout earnings and gaps sharply higher, implied volatility — the market’s expectation of future price swings, priced into options — typically collapses in the sessions immediately following. This is the vol crush: before earnings, options carry a premium for the uncertainty of the result; once the result is known, that uncertainty premium evaporates rapidly. AMD surged more than 13% on Wednesday, and its implied volatility will now decay quickly as market-makers reset their models to a post-event baseline. <br /> <br /> Selling a covered call — writing an out-of-the-money call against a long stock position — captures that residual elevated premium before it disappears. The timing window is narrow: it is most effective in the first one to two sessions after the gap, before normalisation is complete. Strike selection is the key variable: too close to the current price and the position risks being called away if AMD extends its move; too far out and the premium collected is negligible. For traders without an existing AMD position, selling a call spread to cap the risk can achieve a similar outcome with defined downside. The live risk is straightforward — if AMD keeps running on continued AI momentum, the upside is capped at the short strike, and the position underperforms a clean long.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – iron condors in the current low-vol bull environment.</strong> The iron condor — simultaneously selling an out-of-the-money call spread and an out-of-the-money put spread on the same underlying — is a premium-collection strategy that profits when the market stays within a defined range. Its structural edge comes from the gap between implied and realised volatility: when the market prices in more movement than it actually delivers, option sellers collect premium the market never needs to pay out. That gap is wide right now: the VIX sits at 17.39 while 20-day realised volatility is running at just 10.2% and declining — options are pricing roughly 70% more future movement than the market has recently delivered. The VIX futures contango (front-month at 19.200, 1.81 points above spot) adds a further structural tailwind through the daily roll of futures contracts back toward spot. <br /> <br /> In a regime confirmed as LOW VOL BULL across multiple consecutive sessions, this configuration represents a clean iron condor setup. One adjustment worth making given the current SKEW reading of 135.42: size the put-side wing slightly wider than the call side. Elevated SKEW means the market is paying up for downside protection, making the put spread proportionally richer to sell — but also signalling that the tail risk on that side is being taken more seriously by institutional participants. The strategy breaks down on a sudden regime shift: a VIX spike above 25 or a sharp gap lower would stress the put spread directly, so a predetermined exit level on the short put spread is as important as the entry itself.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Wednesday’s session delivered a clean, unambiguous LOW VOL BULL reinforcement: records on both sides of the Atlantic, vol indifference despite a 1.46% S&P 500 advance, put/call ratios collapsing in near-unison across all four measures, and the VIX futures term structure intact in contango. Heading into Thursday, futures suggest continuation without acceleration — the overnight session is digesting rather than extending the move. The slightly elevated VIX1D (11.66, +8.47%) flags that some near-term event uncertainty is priced for today’s session specifically, worth monitoring as the day develops. Absent a fresh catalyst, short premium structures remain the regime-appropriate trade — with SKEW at 135.42 as the standing reminder to keep defined risk on the put side.</p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-retreats-records-set---6-may-2026-06052026" data-id="8C57E8877E3E4D53955D44C888428275" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil retreats records set - 6 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---ceasefire-cracks-kospi-soars---5-may-2026-05052026" data-id="D4B279186C2A47FC8083292FA822E86C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - 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Chips surge Hormuz still shut - 27 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 7 May 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 07 May 2026 06:28:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 7 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US and Europe rallied on peace hopes, while Asia jumped as Korean chipmakers turned AI optimism into a sprint</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX stable, short-term vols higher, Iran deal focus</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> BTC ~81k, ETH ~2.3k, altcoins mixed, IBIT inflows supportive</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> Yields lower, curve steepening, global bond rally, oil impact</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> USD weaker, EUR/GBP higher, JPY stronger, intervention watch</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil -7%, Iran deal hopes, metals higher, gold supported</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> US sends one-page peace proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US-Iran peace hopes moved from a geopolitical headline to the main macro driver.</strong> <strong>Oil fell sharply on Wednesday</strong> as markets priced a lower risk of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, after the US reportedly sent a one-page proposal through Pakistan aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the waterway. Iran is expected to respond in the coming days, with nuclear talks likely to follow later. The catch is that talks are not a deal, and oil has already rebounded this morning as investors reassess how firm the progress really is. Good news, but not yet a holiday brochure.</li> <li><strong>The rate story also softened slightly as lower oil prices helped investors reduce expectations for additional rate pressure</strong>, especially in Europe and the UK. In the US, private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, above expectations, ahead of Friday’s official jobs report, pointing to a labour market that is cooling but not cracking. That keeps the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode rather than giving markets a clean rate-cut signal. In Japan, Bank of Japan members said a rate hike would be appropriate if the outlook is met, with one noting that the policy rate remains well below neutral.</li> <li><strong>Sweden’s Riksbank announces its policy decision at 09:30 CEST</strong>, followed by a press conference at 11:00 CEST, with markets expecting a hold at 1.75% but watching the tone closely as higher energy prices keep inflation less comfortable. Norges Bank follows at 10:00 CEST, with its press conference at 10:30 CEST, and the decision looks more finely balanced as economists are split between a hold at 4.00% and a 25 basis-point hike, leaving the Norwegian krone sensitive to the statement.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> 0930 – Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision <br /> 1000 – Norges Bank announces its policy decision<br /> 1430 – US weekly initial jobless claims </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings this week</strong></h4> <ul> <li> <div><strong>Wednesday (yesterday)</strong>: Disney, Uber, Arm, DoorDash, CVS Health, Marriott, Novo Nordisk, Johnson Controls.</div> </li> <li> <div><span ><strong>Thursday (today)</strong>: Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income, KKR</span></div> </li> <li> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Friday</strong>: Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.</span></div> </li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,365.12, its largest gain since 8 April, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.1% to a record 25,838.94 and the Dow gained 1.2%. Markets rallied as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal pushed oil lower, while strong earnings kept risk appetite alive. Advanced Micro Devices surged 18.6% after strong results and data-centre chip demand, Super Micro Computer rose 24.5% on renewed confidence in AI server demand, Disney gained 7.5% after earnings beat estimates, and Uber rose 8.5% after stronger bookings guidance pointed to resilient ride-hailing and delivery demand. Investors now watch whether earnings can keep matching the geopolitical relief.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 2.2% to 623.25, its biggest gain since 8 April, while Germany’s DAX rose 2.1%, the FTSE 100 gained 2.2%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 2.7%. The rally followed renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement, lower oil prices and stronger company updates, with banks, travel and industrial shares leading the move. HSBC rose 5.0% as banks benefited from better risk appetite, MTU Aero Engines gained 10.1% on strength in aerospace, Demant jumped 13.3% after stronger sales growth, and Novo Nordisk added 2.5% after raising 2026 profit guidance. Markets now look for confirmation that lower energy stress can support earnings.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities rose broadly, led by South Korea, where the Kospi surged 6.5% to 7,384.56 and broke above 7,000 for the first time, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 1.2%. The region followed the global risk rally, but the main engine was artificial intelligence hardware demand. Samsung Electronics jumped 14.4% as its market value moved above USD 1 trillion, while SK Hynix rose 10.6% on strength in memory chips used in AI systems. Japan was closed for Golden Week, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange shut for the observed Constitution Memorial Day holiday, so investors will watch for catch-up moves when trading resumes.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility remains contained as equities extend their rally</strong>, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,365.12 (+1.46%) and the<strong> VIX holding at 17.39</strong>, signalling a market that is calm but still responsive to macro developments. Short-term measures ticked higher, with <strong>VIX1D at 11.66 (+8.47%) and VIX9D at 14.76</strong>, reflecting some near-term event sensitivity around data and earnings. For investors, the key drivers remain oil prices, bond yields and progress on a potential US–Iran agreement, which continues to underpin risk sentiment.</li> <li>Based on current options pricing, the <strong>S&P 500 is implying a move of around 54 points (0.74%)</strong> into Friday’s expiry.</li> <li>0DTE skew indicator: near-the-money calls are priced slightly above puts, <strong>pointing to mild upside bias and continued dip-buying rather than strong demand for protection</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crypto markets are consolidating after recent gains</strong>, with <strong>Bitcoin trading around USD 81,000 and Ether near USD 2,330,</strong> both holding close to multi-month highs despite a modest pullback. The broader tone remains constructive, supported by improving global risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. Solana is holding in the high-USD 80s, XRP near USD 1.40, while Dogecoin is softer after its recent rally.</li> <li><strong>ETF flows continue to provide underlying support</strong>, with IBIT still attracting net inflows and ETHA seeing smaller but steady demand, indicating continued institutional interest. Options flow suggests investors remain selectively constructive on crypto-linked equities and miners, although positioning is more measured around event-sensitive names such as Coinbase and Strategy.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Bond markets rallied as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns</strong>, pulling yields lower across the curve. The <strong>US 10-year yield declined to 4.35%</strong>, the <strong>2-year to 3.87%</strong>, and the <strong>30-year to 4.94%</strong>, marking a broad move into duration. Global bonds followed, with European yields also moving lower, while the US yield curve steepened modestly, with the 2s10s spread widening to 48.4 basis points. Municipal bonds saw similar demand, with long-end yields edging down.</li> <li>For investors, this reflects a shift back toward a “goldilocks” narrative - cooler inflation expectations without a clear growth shock - but the durability of this move depends on oil stabilising and upcoming data confirming the trend.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Commodities moved sharply as geopolitics drove sentiment, with oil leading declines and metals benefiting from improved risk appetite</strong>. WTI crude fell 7% to USD 95.08, while Brent dropped 7.83% to USD 101.27, briefly trading below USD 100 for the first time since April, as hopes for a US–Iran deal raised expectations of increased supply.</li> <li>In contrast, <strong>precious and industrial metals rallied</strong>: <strong>gold gained as yields eased and safe-haven demand persisted, silver surged 5.07%</strong>, and copper rose to USD 13,392 per ton on improving growth sentiment. For investors, the key question is whether lower energy prices can sustain the current equity rally while supporting margins and easing inflation pressures.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar weakened as geopolitical tensions eased</strong>, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling 0.6% to its lowest level since late February. <strong>EURUSD </strong>rose to 1.1749 and GBPUSD to 1.3594, reflecting improved global risk sentiment and limited hedging demand ahead of UK local elections. The Japanese yen strengthened, with <strong>USDJPY </strong>falling around 1% to 156.36, after briefly touching 155.04, fuelling speculation of official support.</li> <li>Strategists suggest authorities may tolerate further yen strength, but not a sharp move toward deflationary levels. For investors, FX markets are increasingly driven by the same theme as equities and bonds: whether geopolitical relief translates into sustained macro stability.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 07 May, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 07 May 2026 01:07:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US sends one page proposal to end conflict and open SoH</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Markets rise to new highs; AMD gains 19% after strong results</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>USD slides on US-Iran peace hopes; JPY jumps on suspected Japan intervention</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil slumped as precious and base metals rallied</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Global bonds rallied, with Bunds and Gilts joining US Treasuries</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US reportedly sent a one-page proposal via Pakistan to end the conflict and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran expected to respond within days.</strong> Nuclear talks would follow later, as Trump faces rising pressure to end the war amid surging energy prices and growth and inflation concerns.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>BOJ members said a rate hike would be appropriate if the outlook is met</span></strong></span><span>, with one noting the policy rate is still well below neutral.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April 2026</span></strong></span><span>, beating forecasts. Services added 94,000 jobs and goods producers 15,000, led by construction. Small firms added 65,000 jobs, large 42,000, and medium 2,000, consistent with a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US</strong> - US equity markets surged to fresh records on Wednesday as optimism grew over a potential US-Iran peace deal and strong semiconductor earnings. S&P 500 closed 1.5% higher at 7,365.12, marking its largest gain since April 8. Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.1%, reaching its 10th record close of 2026 at 25,838.94. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices led the rally, soaring 19% after strong quarterly results impressed investors, while Super Micro Computer surged 24.5%.</strong> Disney gained 7.5% after beating earnings estimates as streaming and parks drive revenue growth despite geopolitical uncertainty. After-hours movers include <strong>Arm holdings which fell 6.4%</strong> despite raising sales forecast on surging AI data centre demand after executives said in the conference call that they have not secured supplies to meet demand for their new chip. Coherent also fell 7.15% despite reporting earnings topped estimates with gross margins rising.</li> <li><strong>EU</strong> - European equity markets rallied sharply on Wednesday amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.2% to 623.25, its biggest gain since April 8, with banks leading the advance. Germany's DAX surged 2.1% to 24,918.69, with MTU Aero Engines gaining 10.1%. The FTSE 100 rose 2.15% to 10,438.66, <strong>led by HSBC Holdings up 5.0% and Fresnillo up 11.1%. </strong>The Euro Stoxx 50 jumped 2.68% to 6,027.13. Switzerland's SMI Index advanced 1.8%, with Richemont contributing the most to gains. <strong>Novo Nordisk raised 2026 annual profit guidance as Wegovy, its weight loss pill performed better than expected in Q1, reaching 2.26b Kroner vs 1.16b Kroner est. The stock rose 2.5% by the end of the session.</strong></li> <li><strong>Asia</strong> - Asian equity markets posted strong gains on Wednesday, driven by technology stocks and optimism over potential US-Iran peace talks. South Korea's Kospi Index soared 6.5% to shatter the 7,000 milestone for the first time, bringing its year-to-date gain to 75%. <strong>Samsung Electronics climbed 14.4%, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion</strong>. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.2% to 26,213.78, with HSBC Holdings up 3.3% and Xinyi Glass surging 9.8%. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.2% at 4,160.17. Singapore's Straits Times Index slipped 0.1% to 4,920.61 on May 5. This morning <strong>UOB reported Q1 earnings of S$1.44b that fell 4% yoy on lower net interest income but beat the estimate of S$1.39b. </strong>Japanese markets were closed for Golden Week holidays but Nikkei 225 futures traded at 61,920, suggesting a strong catch-up rally when markets reopen today. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> UOB, Block, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Expedia, McDonald, Cloudflare, Coinbase, IREN</span></li> <li><strong><span>Friday</span></strong><span>: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> fell on optimism the US and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.6% to its lowest since Feb. 27. Iran is reviewing a US proposal on reopening Hormuz and easing port blockades, though analysts warn it’s too soon to celebrate.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> traded about 1% lower at 156.36 after briefly sliding to 155.04, a move that fuelled speculation Japanese authorities stepped in to support the yen. Societe Generale strategists said Japan may allow <strong>USDJPY</strong> to fall toward 150, but not back to the 140 area, arguing Tokyo doesn’t want a deflationary currency surge yet still sees the yen as “absurdly undervalued.”</span></li> <li><strong>EURUSD</strong> rose 0.5% to 1.1749 and <strong>GBPUSD</strong> gained 0.4% to 1.3594, with options activity showing little sign of last‑minute hedging ahead of Thursday’s UK local elections.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI crude oil</span></strong><span> plunged 7% to settle at $95.08 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 7.83% to $101.27, dropping below $100 intraday for the first time since April on rising hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold</span></strong><span> jumped on Wednesday as Treasury yields fell and safe-haven demand persisted. <strong>Comex silver</strong> settled 5.07% higher at $76.811, its largest one-day gain since April 14.</span></li> <li><strong><span>LME 3-month copper</span></strong><span> closed $258 higher at $13,392 per ton, benefiting from improved risk sentiment and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasury yields </span></strong><span>fell across the curve as oil prices retreated. The 30-year yield declined 4 basis points to 4.942%, its lowest since April 27. The 10-year yield fell to 4.354%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.867%.</span></li> <li><span>Global bonds from Germany to the UK rallied alongside US Treasuries. The 2-year to 10-year yield spread widened to 48.4 basis points.</span></li> <li><span>Municipal bond yields fell across the curve, with 30-year yields declining 3 basis points to 4.28%. The Treasury announced it would maintain stable coupon auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Chip madness getting close to FOMO mania phase?</h1> <p>Wed, 06 May 2026 10:47:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">And HOG is on a roll.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4><a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/chip-madness-getting-close-to-fomo-mania-phase/"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.</h4> <p> </p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Today’s Links<br /> <em ><strong>The view from the top - <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np-lm-SgzEo" target="_blank">Ken Griffin interview<br /> </a></strong></em><span >Worth a listening to someone who has assembled a USD 50 billion fortune. Comments on the Iran war, US politics, some interesting comments on tech booming perhaps more than AI itself and more.</span></h3> <p><span> <p><span><em><strong><span>Tracking the AI tech developments and directions that are driving AI-related stocks</span><br /> </strong></em><strong><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://stratechery.com/" target="_blank">Stratechery.com </a></strong>is a great place to start for in-depth articles on key AI industry players (mostly chip- and software, not things like, the shifts in which technologies see more demand as AI moves to the next phase, the spin and analysis of what companies are saying on their earnings call, etc. AI tech is shifting so quickly - and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://stratechery.com/2026/intel-earnings-intels-differentiation-whither-terafab/" target="_blank">the recent podcast on Intel’s earnings</a>, for example, helps investors to understand the wild reception of AMD’s earnings and the huge boost to Intel’s shares as CPUs are receiving more intense focus than previously. The shift in data center loads from training to inference and increasingly to agentic AI will see intensifying use of CPUs as opposed to GPUs.</span></p> <p><span><em><strong><span>My favourite writer on the post-American order</span><br /> </strong></em>It’s not that I share his viewpoints, but his writing is just so fantastically crafted and <strong><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://pluralistic.net/2026/05/05/three-is-a-magic-number/#coalitions" target="_blank">he brings up extremely important perspectives on what might happen if the rest of the world decides it doesn’t like the way the US is behaving</a></strong> and decides to go its own way rather than submit to becoming a part of the US…empire, patronage system, etc..</span></p> <p><span><em><strong><span>The Sportster is back!</span><br /> </strong></em>I never knew it was gone as I haven’t fiddled with motorcycles since my early 20’s (a long long time ago) - but the big old 1200 CC one was always one of my favourite Harley Davidson models, and <strong><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/harley-davidsons-new-boss-wants-to-sell-you-a-bike-you-can-actually-afford-15141fb2?mod=hp_trendingnow_article_pos4" target="_blank">now they are bringing back the classic 883 Sportster and selling it for a reasonable price</a></strong> that they can still make money on. Some even lower-end smaller models are also on the way, which is very un-Harley Davidson, but shareholders are rejoicing (see below).f</span></p> <h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Chart of the Day - Harley Davidson (HOG - natch!)</span></h3> <p class="text--body"><span><span >Its’s another day of AI chip-stock frenzy, but I am getting a bit wary of the spectacle and uneasy with where it is all headed - we are somewhere close to- or fully in a mania cycle that won’t end well, whenever it ends. So instead, I turn my attention to a company that is very much not AI- related, a real blast from the past: Harley Davidson. My father rode a Harley, something he had long wanted to own and then along came middle age and voila, he flew all the way to El Paso from Houston (about 1200 kilometers) to pick up his 1993 Heritage Softail Classic, </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1eppPmnsWU&t=1s" target="_blank" >which looked like this one</a><span >, except it was black and with leather bags, of course. I also learned to ride on that insanely heavy bike, but it was very easy to ride with its low center of gravity. It was either the last, or one of the last Harley Davidsons that had the engine directly mounted to the frame, which meant the fillings in your teeth were about to rattle out after a couple of hours on the highway from the vibrations. Anyway, as noted in WSJ article link above, I was pleased to see the company is trying to innovate with a refresh of old models and even bringing in some new ones. As the chart below shows, this is generating some solid enthusiasm and the shares are up more than 50% from the recent lows. The valuation of the company is pricing in somewhat of a turnaround, given its recent falling revenues and the overall question of whether motorcycles are a dying industry because younger generations don’t want to take the risks. I know I would never encourage any of my four children to ride because of the dangers of motorcycle riding, but lucky for me my father was from an old generation that was willing to take such risks and I had the opportunity. Let’s ride!</span></span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">And here is a weekly chart showing more of the slide of the last couple of years before this latest rally.</div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Oil retreats, records set - 6 May 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 06 May 2026 10:19:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Oil fell while gold climbed - on the same day. That usually doesn’t happen, and when it does it means the market is pricing two separate risk stories at once. Tuesday’s session saw the S&P 500 close at a fresh record while WTI crude pulled back from Monday’s Strait of Hormuz spike. Gold added 2%, not as a pure fear trade but as a persistent Hormuz risk premium that equity markets chose to temporarily set aside.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Oil retreats, records set - 6 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Equities hit fresh records as Hormuz tensions ease, but gold’s persistent bid suggests the geopolitical premium has not fully left the room.</em></p> <p>WTI crude pulled back from Monday’s Strait of Hormuz spike on Tuesday, as Washington signalled that a short-term naval corridor solution was in progress – freeing equity markets to focus on a strong earnings backdrop and push the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time closing record. Gold continued its recovery from the January highs, adding 2% on the session as the Hormuz risk premium held firm in commodity markets even as equities moved into relief-rally mode. This morning, South Korea’s KOSPI surged past 7,000 for the first time – up more than 7% as semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both hit record highs, adding a strong Asia tailwind to Wednesday’s session open.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>WTI crude oil pulled back from Monday’s Strait of Hormuz spike on Tuesday, as Washington signalled that a short-term naval corridor solution was in progress – freeing equity markets to focus on a strong earnings backdrop and push the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time closing record. Gold continued its recovery from the January highs, adding 2% on the session as the Hormuz risk premium held firm in commodity markets even as equities moved into relief-rally mode.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p>The S&P 500 rose 0.81% to close at a record 7,259.22, with technology leading – the Nasdaq 100 added 1.31% to finish at 28,015.06. Small caps outperformed: the Russell 2000 gained 1.75% to 2,845. WTI crude oil futures pulled back 1.93% to $100.30, retreating from Monday’s geopolitical spike, while gold futures added 2.04% to $4,661.90 – well below January’s all-time high near $5,600 but continuing a steady recovery – and silver added 3.63%. European indices closed firmly in the green: the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.84% and the DAX gained 1.71%. This morning, South Korea’s KOSPI surged past 7,000 for the first time – up more than 7% as markets reopened following a holiday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both at record highs on continued AI semiconductor demand.</p> <p><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low-vol bull. VIX 17.38, 20-day realised volatility 11.9% annualised, S&P 500 +6.19% above its 50-day moving average.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed Tuesday at 17.38, down 4.98% on the session and firmly in the low-vol bull regime – 20-day realised volatility has compressed to just 11.9% annualised, and the S&P 500 sits 6.19% above its 50-day moving average. Front-month VIX futures, however, remain at 19.30 – a 1.9-point premium above spot – preserving a healthy contango curve. The equity put-to-call ratio (0.804) and the equity-only put-to-call ratio (0.642) are both tracking multi-week lows, signalling that options participants are leaning decisively bullish rather than buying downside protection. SKEW at 138.74 remains elevated but eased 2.12% on Tuesday, and VVIX at 95.26 – also declining – confirms that demand for volatility hedges is waning.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – VIX contango as a structural tailwind for short-vol positions.</strong> With VIX spot at 17.38 and front-month VIX futures at 19.30, there is a 1.92-point premium built into the futures contract that rolls toward zero at expiry assuming implied volatility (the market’s expectation of future price swings) stays flat or drifts lower. In a stable low-vol bull environment, this contango is a structural tailwind for sellers of VIX futures – the decay of that premium accrues to the short side over time. The live risk: a sudden Hormuz re-escalation could snap VIX sharply higher from already-compressed levels, so position sizing relative to that tail scenario matters.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – gold call overwriting as a vol-spread trade, not a yield play.</strong> Gold at $4,661 and silver up 3.63% on Tuesday, yet equity implied volatility continues to compress. Gold options implied volatility tends to run structurally higher than equity vol during geopolitical stress, creating a spread between the two vol surfaces that experienced traders often examine. One way to engage that spread is through a covered call structure on a gold position – selling an out-of-the-money call at a strike the holder is comfortable capping gains at, in exchange for the option’s time value. The key variable is strike selection: too tight and the position gets called away in a continued rally; too wide and the premium collected is negligible. Neither outcome is costless, and the structure introduces its own risks – including early assignment and opportunity cost if gold moves sharply higher.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Heading into Wednesday’s session, the setup is a low-vol bull market with a live geopolitical wildcard: equities at records, VIX compressed, but gold’s persistent bid near $4,661 – recovering steadily from January’s $5,600 peak – and the KOSPI gapping past 7,000 this morning both signal that risk appetite is more nuanced than the headline calm suggests. Options traders working this environment are rewarded for income strategies – short vol, covered calls, iron condors – but the Hormuz situation and gold’s persistent bid are reminders that the tail risk has not been priced away, it has merely been temporarily set aside.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---ceasefire-cracks-kospi-soars---5-may-2026-05052026" data-id="D4B279186C2A47FC8083292FA822E86C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---big-tech-divides-oil-surges---30-april-2026-30042026" data-id="9076C52B7D3E4A398EE5B8A960763F98" data-type="Article">Options Brief - 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It is becoming a story about factories, memory chips, servers, power, data centres and supply chains. In other words, the digital revolution has developed a very physical appetite.</span></p> <p><span>On 5 May 2026, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the chip company best known as Nvidia’s main challenger in AI processors, reported first-quarter revenue of 10.3 billion USD, up 38% from a year earlier. Its data centre revenue rose 57% to 5.8 billion USD, and the company guided second-quarter revenue to about 11.2 billion USD, above market expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg.</span></p> <p><span>AMD closed at 355.26 USD on 5 May 2026, up 4%, before rising more than 16% after hours. The market reaction was simple: investors saw another sign that AI spending is broadening.</span></p> <p><span>This matters because one of the biggest questions in markets is whether AI remains a one-stock, one-supplier story, or becomes a full industry cycle. AMD, Intel and Micron now suggest the answer may be closer to the second option.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The AI trade is moving from heroes to plumbing</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Nvidia remains the clear leader in graphics processing units, the specialised chips used to train and run AI systems. Its shares have eased slightly from recent highs, but the bigger point is that investors are now searching for the rest of the AI supply chain.</span></p> <p><span>AMD is important because it gives large cloud customers an alternative. That does not mean it replaces Nvidia. It means the market may be big enough for more than one serious supplier. When demand is enormous, customers rarely enjoy depending on one vendor. Even in chips, nobody likes a single point of failure. It makes procurement teams sweat through expensive shirts.</span></p> <p><span>AMD also benefits from central processing units (CPUs), the general-purpose chips that sit at the heart of servers. As AI moves from model training to daily use, known as inference, companies need more balanced systems. The AI brain needs accelerators, but it also needs memory, networking and ordinary server processors to keep the machine running.</span></p> <p><span>That is why AMD’s numbers landed well. The story is not only that AI chips are selling. It is that AI systems are becoming larger, more complex and more distributed across the data centre.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Intel and Micron show the bottleneck story</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Intel is a different case from AMD. AMD is gaining from clear demand in AI servers. Intel is more of a turnaround story, and a complicated one. It has struggled for years with execution, manufacturing delays and lost market share. But recent reports that Apple is exploring chip manufacturing talks with Intel show why investors are giving the company another look.</span></p> <p><span>The key word is manufacturing. Intel wants to become a larger foundry, meaning a company that makes chips designed by others. That matters because chip supply is becoming strategic. Large technology companies and governments do not want the world’s most important chips to depend on too few factories in too few places. If more companies want secure, local and diversified chip production, Intel could regain relevance. Could is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The market is watching optionality, not proof.</span></p> <p><span>Micron tells the same story from another angle. Micron makes memory chips, which store and move data inside devices and servers. Memory has traditionally been a boom-bust business. When supply is tight, prices rise. When too many chips are produced, prices fall quickly. It is not a business for the faint-hearted, or for anyone who likes straight lines.</span></p> <p><span>AI may not remove that cycle, but it could make demand more durable. Advanced AI servers need large amounts of high-performance memory because models must move and process huge volumes of data. The more AI shifts from experiments to real workloads, the more memory becomes a toll booth on the road.</span></p> <p><span>This is the common thread. AMD sells more compute. Intel may regain relevance in manufacturing. Micron benefits from memory scarcity. Nvidia remains the giant everyone measures against. The AI story is spreading from the front page to the warehouse.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The private-market signal is getting louder</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The same pattern appears in private markets. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is reportedly weighing a funding round that could value it at more than 900 billion USD. OpenAI said on 31 March 2026 that it had raised 122 billion USD at a post-money valuation of 852 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>Those numbers are large enough to make a calculator pause for personal reflection. But the useful point is not the exact valuation. It is the direction of travel. AI firms need vast amounts of computing power, and investors are trying to own the companies that may turn that compute into revenue.</span></p> <p><span>Anthropic also launched 10 AI agents for financial services on 5 May 2026. These tools aim to help with tasks such as pitchbooks, statement reviews and compliance checks. That matters because AI demand is shifting from experiments to daily workflows. If customers use AI to do real work, infrastructure demand becomes less theoretical.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: the bill still arrives</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The main risk is that expectations run faster than revenue. AI infrastructure spending is huge, but not every dollar spent on chips will become a dollar of profit for the buyer. Investors should watch whether large cloud companies keep spending, or start slowing orders after heavy build-outs.</span></p> <p><span>A second risk is supply pressure. Memory shortages help Micron today, but they can hurt personal computer demand and raise costs for others. Bottlenecks are good for the seller, until they become bad for the system.</span></p> <p><span>A third risk is valuation. When companies rise quickly, the market often starts pricing tomorrow’s success as if it arrived yesterday. Early warning signs include weaker guidance, falling margins, customer delays, rising inventories and softer language around AI orders.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Follow the supply chain</strong>, not only the most famous stock. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate confirmed orders from exciting product</strong> roadmaps. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch margins,</strong> because revenue without profit is only expensive exercise. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Keep position sizes linked to uncertainty, </strong>especially after sharp rallies. </span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>A bigger machine, not a magic machine</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AMD’s earnings matter because they turn the AI story from a narrow winner-takes-most trade into a broader industrial question. The next phase is about who supplies the chips, memory, servers, factories and software that make AI useful at scale. Nvidia still leads. AMD is gaining credibility. Intel is trying to re-enter the conversation. Micron shows that memory may be one of the least glamorous, most important parts of the stack. For long-term investors, the lesson is balanced: AI may be a durable growth theme, but durable does not mean smooth. Even the smartest machine still needs parts, power and patience.</span></p> </h3> <p> </p> <p><em >This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <p class="text--body"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 6 May 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 06 May 2026 06:23:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 6 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US hit records on chips, Europe rebounded on earnings and Asia dipped before Korea reopened at a record.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX lower, geopolitics easing, oil and yields still key</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> TC ~81k; ETH steady, altcoins higher, IBIT and ETHA supportive</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> Yields ease lower on latest drop in crude oil prices</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> JPY rises sharply on apparent intervention, spiking volatility. AUDUSD hits new post-2022 high.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Crude oil drops, gold surges as hopes rise that US-Iran ceasefire will hold</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> US Apr. ADP Employment Change</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Trump signals progress toward a final Iran deal, saying the US will briefly pause efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz</strong>, while keeping the naval blockade in place. Washington is shifting focus to reopening the strait amid foreign pressure and rising domestic opposition to the war, but US–Iran talks remain deadlocked as Tehran insists negotiations depend on lifting the US naval blockade.</li> <li><strong>The ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 in April 2026 from 54</strong>, roughly in line with expectations and still above last year’s average. Activity rose to 55.9 as firms worked through backlogs while new orders fell to 53.5. The Employment index remained below 50 at 48.0 after 45.2 in March. Prices jumped to 70.7, the highest since 2022, on higher energy, metals, freight, and tariff-driven aluminum and lumber costs.</li> <li><strong>US job openings slipped by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026, above expectations</strong>. Openings fell in professional and business services but rose in finance and insurance, and declined in most regions except the Northeast. Hires rose to 5.6 million, while separations held near 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.</li> <li><strong>The US RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 42.6 in May 2026 from 42.8</strong>, its lowest since June 2024 and below 50 for a ninth month. The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell to 37.8, while the Personal Financial Outlook was steady at 50.3 and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies held at 39.8.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> 0600 – Sweden Apr. Flash CPI<br /> 1215 – US Apr. ADP Employment Change<br /> 1400 – Canada Apr. Ivey PMI<br /> 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings this week</strong></h4> <ul> <li> <div> <div><strong>Tuesday (yesterday)</strong>: AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Cummins, Eaton</div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ><strong>Wednesday (today)</strong>: Disney, Uber, Arm, DoorDash, CVS Health, Marriott, Novo Nordisk, Johnson Controls.</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Thursday</strong>: Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income, KKR</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Friday</strong>: Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.</span></div> </div> <strong> <div> <div> </div> </div> </strong></li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,259.22, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Dow gained 0.7%, as chip optimism pushed US equities to fresh records. Intel jumped 12.9% on reported Apple chipmaking talks, while Micron rose about 11.0% after an IDC report suggested the memory market may be entering a less cyclical phase. AMD gained 16.5% after hours as strong results and guidance reinforced demand for artificial intelligence data-centre chips. Shopify fell 15.6% on weaker revenue guidance, while PayPal and Palantir slipped despite earnings beats, reminding investors that expectations are now doing Olympic-level hurdles.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as resilient earnings helped investors look past Middle East concerns, while Germany’s DAX gained 1.7% to 24,401.70. Anheuser-Busch InBev rallied 9.3% after reporting its first volume expansion since 2023, supported by demand for Michelob and Corona. Infineon rose 8% as chip sentiment improved, while UniCredit gained 5.9% after record quarterly profits. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4% to 10,219.11, dragged down by HSBC, down 5.9%, and Entain, down 6.5%. Markets now watch whether earnings strength can keep offsetting higher energy and geopolitical risks.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities retreated from record highs as holiday-thinned trading and renewed Strait of Hormuz concerns weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, while Japan, South Korea and mainland China were closed for holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.1% to 4,920.61 despite March retail sales rising 4.8% from a year earlier. In Wednesday morning trade in Europe, South Korea’s KOSPI surged to an all-time high as the global chip rally spread to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, giving Asia a much stronger semiconductor tone after Tuesday’s cautious session.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility eased as equities moved higher, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,259.22 (+0.81%) and the VIX falling to 17.38 (-4.98%)</strong>. The decline reflects improving sentiment after signs of easing US-Iran tensions and a pullback in oil prices, but the broader backdrop remains sensitive, with crude still near USD 100 and yields elevated. At the same time, the rally is increasingly concentrated in AI-driven names, highlighted by South Korea’s KOSPI surging to a record high,<strong> reinforcing a risk-on tone but also raising questions about market breadth</strong>.</li> <li>Based on SPX options pricing, <strong>the market is implying an expected move of about 34 points (0.47%) for today’s expiry</strong> and roughly 67 points (0.92%) into Friday.</li> <li>Today’s 0DTE skew indicator shows a mild upside bias, with near-the-money calls priced at higher implied volatility than comparable puts, suggesting investors are leaning towards upside participation rather than actively hedging downside risk. <strong>Attention now shifts to US ADP employment data and a heavy earnings calendar, both of which could drive near-term volatility</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets are holding a constructive tone alongside broader risk appetite</strong>, with <strong>Bitcoin </strong>trading around <strong>USD 81,286</strong> and <strong>Ether </strong>near <strong>USD 2,364</strong>, while altcoins including Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are moving higher. The rebound appears largely driven by improving macro sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts, meaning the sustainability of the move will depend on whether risk conditions remain supportive.</li> <li><strong>ETF flows continue to act as a stabilising force</strong>, with IBIT gaining 1.94% and ETHA up 0.73%, reflecting ongoing institutional engagement. At the same time, options flow shows a more nuanced picture: upside exposure is being accumulated through vehicles such as MSTR and IBIT, while crypto miners continue to see hedging activity, indicating selective risk-taking rather than broad conviction. Overall, <strong>sentiment is improving, but positioning suggests investors remain cautious beneath the surface</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasuries rallied on hopes that the US-Iran ceasefire will hold and on the fresh dip in crude oil prices</strong>. The benchmark 2-year yield dropped slightly and back below 3.94%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield edged lower toward 4.40%</li> <li><strong>European bonds rallied and yield curves steepend on the latest drop in crude oil prices</strong>. The benchmark 2-year German Schatz yield pushed five basis points lower Tuesday to below 2.68% and will open Wednesday lower still, while the benchmark German 10-year Bund yield fell less than three basis point to 3.06% Tuesday.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s markets are closed through today</strong></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crude oil prices dropped back sharply on the lack of further confrontations in the Persian Gulf as ceasefire seen intact.</strong> July Brent trades early Wednesday near USD 108 per barrel after soaring as high as 115 Monday. The Iranian foreign minister met with diplomats in Beijing, suggesting coordination ahead of the Trump-Xi summit late next week. June WTI trades near USD 100 per barrel.</li> <li><strong>Gold and silver prices surged as oil prices dropped sharply</strong>. Spot gold rallied nearly USD 100 per ounce by early Wednesday. Trading near six-day highs just above USD 4,650 per ounce, with USD 4,500 now clearly the range support after Monday’s near touch of that level. Silver prices also surged, punching up above 75.50 per ounce early Wednesday after trading below 72.00 at one point late Tuesday.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The JPY spiked higher suddenly early Wednesday on an apparent fresh round of intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance</strong>. The move came after <strong>USDJPY </strong>had backed up to a three-day high just below 158.00. The intervention took the exchange rate quickly lower to as low as 155.05 before two-way price action developed in a fast, volatile market. Less than 30 minutes after the intervention move reached its low, <strong>USDJPY </strong>traded above 156.30.</li> <li><strong>The US dollar trades weaker, driven lower still early Wednesday by the weight of USDJPY intervention</strong>. <strong>EURUSD </strong>traded back above 1.1700 and as high as 1.1740+ at one point, but remains very much bottled up in the range between 1.1650 and 1.1800, likely awaiting the latest USD jobs data this Friday as a next step.</li> <li><strong>The Australian dollar was quick to recover from its RBA-inspired stumble Tuesday </strong>and in Asian trading hours Wednesday, with <strong>AUDUSD </strong>even posting a new cycle- and nearly four-year high of 0.7251. Strong gains in metals and positive global risk sentiment, especially in China on Wednesday, likely drove the Aussie’s strong performance.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 06 May, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 06 May 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 6 May, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>US concludes offensive operations against Iran </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Intel surges 13% on Apple partnership; AMD +16% in after-hours on strong server chip sales </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >AUD gains on RBA hikes and pause signal; yen weak as USDJPY climbs </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Oil down again; WTI near $100; cocoa near 3‑month high </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >US long bonds rebounded, with the 30‑year yield slipping back below 5% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong >Macro: </strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Trump signals progress toward a final Iran deal, saying the US will briefly pause efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz</span></strong><span>, while keeping the naval blockade in place. <strong>Washington is shifting focus to reopening the strait amid foreign pressure and rising domestic opposition to the war</strong>, but US–Iran talks remain deadlocked as Tehran insists negotiations depend on lifting the US naval blockade.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >The ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 in April 2026 from 54, roughly in line with expectations</strong><span > and still above last year’s average. Activity rose to 55.9 as firms worked through backlogs while new orders fell to 53.5. Employment increased but stayed below 50. Prices jumped to 70.7, the highest since 2022, on higher energy, metals, freight, and tariff-driven aluminum and lumber costs.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US job openings slipped by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026</strong><span >, above expectations. Openings fell in professional and business services but rose in finance and insurance, and declined in most regions except the Northeast. Hires rose to 5.6 million, while separations held near 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Australia’s Ai Group manufacturing index ticked up 0.7 points to -27.9 in April 2026 but remained deeply contractionary</strong><span >, as firms struggled with rising input costs they could not fully pass through, export disruptions, and production cuts. Minerals and metals hit a record low on weak exports and shortages, while food and beverage producers saw margins squeezed by higher costs and limited pricing power.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 42.6 in May 2026</strong><span > from 42.8, its lowest since June 2024 and below 50 for a ninth month. The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell to 37.8, while the Personal Financial Outlook was steady at 50.3 and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies held at 39.8.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US</strong> - US equity markets closed at record highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% to 7,259.22, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7%.<strong> Intel surged 13% to reach a market capitalization of $547 billion, surpassing Oracle, on enthusiasm over a reported Apple partnership</strong>. Micron Technology soared approximately 11% after an IDC report suggested the memory market could break from historical cyclical patterns. <strong>Super Micro Computer jumped in extended trading after reporting improved margins and strong profit guidance while Shopify fell 15% on weaker than expected revenue guidance. </strong>In after-hours trading, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices rose 16.5% following strong quarterly results.</strong> PayPal and Palantir fell despite upbeat earnings, with analysts citing disappointing guidance and lagging international commercial business respectively.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU</strong><span > - European stocks rebounded on Tuesday with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.7% as resilient earnings helped temper Middle East concerns. Anheuser-Busch InBev rallied 9%, the most since 2021, after posting its first volume expansion since 2023 driven by demand for Michelob and Corona. The DAX rose 1.7% to 24,401.70, its largest gain since April 17, with Infineon Technologies climbing 6.5%. HSBC Holdings fell 5.9%, contributing the most to index declines. UniCredit jumped 5.9% after reporting record quarterly profits. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4% to 10,219.11, its largest loss since March 20, weighed down by HSBC and Entain, which dropped 6.5%. The Swiss Market Index rose 0.4%, while the OMX Stockholm 30 Index gained 1.2%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia</strong><span > - Asian equities retreated from record highs on Tuesday amid holiday-thinned trade as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rattled investors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6%, with markets in Japan, South Korea, and mainland China closed for holidays. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished down 0.8% as traders weighed Middle East developments and eschewed tech issues. Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.1% to 4,920.61, mirroring regional losses despite upbeat retail data showing total retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year in March. Looking ahead to Wednesday's session, an overnight jump of more than 4% for the SOX semiconductor index sets up a strong return for the Kospi after Tuesday's holiday, with </span><strong >Samsung Electronics ADRs in London jumping more than 8% after reports of exploratory discussions with Apple about producing processors in the US</strong><span >. SK Square surged 20% and SKC Co jumped 15% to a 14-month high.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Arm, Disney, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Lyft, Coherent </li> <li><strong >Thursday:</strong><span > UOB, Block, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Expedia, McDonald, Cloudflare, Coinbase, IREN </span></li> <li><strong >Friday</strong><span >: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank </span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>USD</strong> was little changed on Tuesday as the US downplayed the risk of wider conflict with Iran, keeping the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed. US services growth slowed, with the ISM index easing to a five-month low of 53.6 in April amid cooler orders and still-elevated input costs.<span></span></li> <li>In G-10 FX, the <strong >JPY</strong><span > lagged as </span><strong >USDJPY</strong><span > rose 0.4% to 157.88, its third straight gain.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD </strong><span >climbed 0.2% to 0.7183, near its highest since 2022, after the RBA’s third consecutive rate hike and a signal to pause. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >GBPUSD </strong><span >inched up 0.1% to 1.3540 despite UK long-term borrowing costs hitting a 28-year high amid political and energy concerns.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >EURUSD</strong><span > was just below 1.17, while </span><strong >USDCHF</strong><span > dipped 0.1% to 0.7831 as Swiss inflation hit a 16-month high on higher energy costs.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Oil </strong>fell for a second day with WTI dropping toward $100 a barrel after sliding 3.9% on Tuesday, while Brent closed near $110. WTI fell 2.5% after Trump announced the pause of Project Freedom. Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main oil grade for Asia next month from a record-high in May, though it remained near historic levels.<span></span></li> <li>Comex <strong >copper </strong><span >settled 2.55% higher at $5.9430 per pound, the largest one-day gain since April 8, as the market digests conflicting signals between Middle East tensions and upbeat factory data in China.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Cocoa </strong><span >prices approached a three-month high, with New York cocoa futures rising 2.7% to $3,987 after briefly topping $4,000, on concerns around the impact of an El Nino weather system on global supply and irregular rainfall in Ivory Coast weighing on crop expectations.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US long bonds</strong> rebounded with the 30-year yield falling as much as four basis points to 4.98%, back below 5%, as investors looked to lock in long-term interest rates trading around multi-year highs. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.4%, notably higher than roughly two months ago at 3.94%. Washington is now spending roughly $1.22 trillion a year servicing its debt, equivalent to over 4% of GDP.<span></span></li> <li>Most major US bond dealers expect the Treasury Department to begin laying the groundwork this week for a seemingly inevitable round of increases in Treasury auctions at some point in the next year, though auction sizes are expected to remain unchanged for the May-to-July quarter.<span ></span></li> <li>The US high-yield primary market saw two issuers selling a combined $1.75 billion of new bonds, with six more borrowers expected to raise capital later this week. The average US high-yield corporate bond spread is just 17 basis points above a multi-decade low, while yield-to-worst has climbed 28 basis points over the past 11 days from its April low of 6.75%.<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" >Inspiration</a><span >.</span><strong > </strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AUD/USD after the RBA hike: Positioning for the next move</h1> <p>Wed, 06 May 2026 00:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> </h2> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong>Key points</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/USD has surged to fresh highs since 2022</strong>, with the RBA hike reinforcing the bullish break despite initial pause-related hesitation.</li> <li><strong>The market is looking through RBA pause language</strong> and focusing on sticky inflation, wider yield differentials and a policy path that is diverging from the G3.</li> <li><strong>AUD is also becoming a commodity-relevance trade</strong>, supported by a world where energy security, metals demand and real assets remain important even if the Iran war de-escalates.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Current setup</strong></p> <p>AUD/USD has reclaimed momentum after an initial post-RBA wobble and is now trading at its highest levels since 2022. The RBA has signalled it may pause after three consecutive hikes, but the market is focused on the inflation message: higher fuel prices, broader cost pressures and second-round risks mean the tightening cycle may not be fully over.</p> <p>That leaves AUD supported by two forces: <strong>policy divergence</strong> versus a largely on-hold G3, and <strong>commodity relevance</strong> in a world where energy security, supply-chain resilience and AI-driven power demand keep real assets in focus. The technical setup remains constructive, but after a sharp rally the key question is whether AUD/USD can hold the breakout rather than simply spike into resistance.</p> <p><strong>Levels to watch<br /> <br /> </strong><span ></span></p> <p><strong >Three Scenarios for AUD/USD</strong></p> <p><strong> </strong></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 1: Bullish extension — AUD becomes the clean policy divergence trade</strong></h3> <p><strong>Levels to watch</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Breakout zone:</strong> 0.7245–0.7250 first, then 0.7300 confirmation</li> <li><strong>Upside targets:</strong> 0.7400–0.7500, then 0.7661 if the rally broadens</li> <li><strong>Support to hold:</strong> 0.7158 first, then 0.7070 and 0.6994–0.6965</li> </ul> <p><strong>Context</strong></p> <p>AUD/USD sustains a break above <strong>0.7245–0.7250</strong>, then confirms above <strong>0.7300</strong>, as traders look through RBA pause language and focus on sticky inflation, rate divergence and a still-supportive commodity backdrop.</p> <p><strong>What drives it</strong></p> <ul> <li>Sticky Australian inflation keeps the RBA reaction function hawkish.</li> <li>Resilient labour market data supports the case for further tightening risk.</li> <li>Swap markets continue to price the possibility that the cycle is not over.</li> <li>Firm commodities and stable China/Asia sentiment add support.</li> <li>A softer USD would make the breakout cleaner, but AUD can still benefit if Australia is seen as one of the few developed markets with policy risks tilted toward more tightening.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bias favours buying dips rather than chasing spikes.</li> <li>A sustained move above <strong>0.7300</strong> strengthens the breakout signal.</li> <li>Pullbacks toward <strong>0.7158</strong>, then <strong>0.7070–0.6994</strong>, may attract buyers if the macro story holds.</li> <li>AUD crosses may offer cleaner expressions where the other central bank is more dovish.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Risks</strong></p> <ul> <li>RBA pushes back harder against further tightening expectations.</li> <li>Global risk sentiment deteriorates.</li> <li>China data disappoints or commodities reverse.</li> <li>AUD struggles because it is still a cyclical currency, even with rate support.</li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 2: Range consolidation — the hike supports AUD, but the move needs a pause</strong></h3> <p><strong>Levels to watch</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Range resistance:</strong> 0.7245–0.7300</li> <li><strong>First range support:</strong> 0.7158, the former 2023 high</li> <li><strong>Deeper range support:</strong> 0.6994–0.6965</li> <li><strong>Breakout confirmation:</strong> Daily close above 0.7300 or below 0.6965</li> </ul> <p><strong>Context</strong></p> <p>AUD/USD fails to sustain a move above <strong>0.7245–0.7300</strong> and settles into a <strong>0.7158–0.7300</strong> near-term range, with deeper support around <strong>0.6994–0.6965</strong>. This would not be bearish by itself; after a strong move to 2022 highs, the market may simply need fresh catalysts.</p> <p><strong>What drives it</strong></p> <ul> <li>RBA inflation concern keeps AUD supported.</li> <li>Pause language caps the upside for now.</li> <li>Commodities remain firm, but not strong enough to trigger a broader commodity FX rally.</li> <li>USD stays supported, but not enough to force AUD/USD lower.</li> <li>This is the “AUD has a good story, but not a fresh catalyst yet” scenario.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <ul> <li>This becomes a tactical range rather than a clean trend.</li> <li>Strength into <strong>0.7245–0.7300</strong> may invite profit-taking.</li> <li>Dips toward <strong>0.7158</strong> may be the first test of breakout demand.</li> <li>A deeper pullback toward <strong>0.6994–0.6965</strong> may still attract demand if the broader trend holds.</li> <li>Trend traders may wait for a decisive break either side.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Risks</strong></p> <ul> <li>A daily close above <strong>0.7300</strong> forces momentum traders back in.</li> <li>A break below <strong>0.6965</strong> damages the bullish structure.</li> <li>The market starts questioning whether the RBA rally has gone too far.</li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 3: Bearish reversal — the market decides the RBA is hiking into weakness</strong></h3> <p><strong>Levels to watch</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Early warning:</strong> Break back below 0.7158, the former 2023 high</li> <li><strong>Bearish trigger:</strong> Sustained break below 0.6994–0.6965</li> <li><strong>Next downside zone:</strong> 0.6788–0.6755</li> <li><strong>Resistance on rebounds:</strong> 0.7070 first, then 0.7158 and 0.7245–0.7300</li> </ul> <p><strong>Context</strong></p> <p>AUD/USD breaks below <strong>0.6994–0.6965</strong> as traders stop seeing the RBA hike as positive divergence and start seeing it as policy stress: high inflation, weaker growth and limited room to fix supply-driven price pressures.</p> <p><strong>What drives it</strong></p> <ul> <li>Weaker Australian activity data starts to challenge the RBA divergence story.</li> <li>A softer labour market makes further tightening harder to justify.</li> <li>Falling commodity prices or renewed China stress weigh on AUD sentiment.</li> <li>A stronger USD adds pressure, especially if US yields stay elevated or safe-haven demand returns.</li> <li>AUD can benefit from commodities and yield support in calm markets, but remains vulnerable when investors cut cyclical exposure.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>0.6994–0.6965</strong> is the key line.</li> <li>A sustained break below it weakens the bullish structure.</li> <li>Focus shifts to <strong>0.6788–0.6755</strong>.</li> <li>Rallies may start to be sold if markets price a growth problem behind the RBA’s inflation fight.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Risks</strong></p> <ul> <li>Inflation remains sticky and the RBA keeps the door open to more hikes.</li> <li>Commodity prices rebound.</li> <li>AUD shorts build too quickly and get squeezed on a hawkish surprise.</li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 4: AUD outperforms on crosses even if AUD/USD stalls</strong></h3> <p><strong>Levels to watch</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/USD pivot:</strong> 0.6994–0.6965 remains the key line for the broader AUD tone</li> <li><strong>AUD/USD cap:</strong> 0.7245–0.7300 if USD strength limits upside</li> <li><strong>Cross-market signals:</strong> EUR/AUD sensitivity to energy/growth divergence, AUD/NZD sensitivity to RBA versus RBNZ pricing</li> </ul> <p><strong>Context</strong></p> <p>AUD/USD may stall if the US dollar stays firm, but AUD can still outperform on crosses if the core driver is Australia-specific policy divergence and commodity relevance.</p> <p><strong>What drives it</strong></p> <ul> <li>Relative rates remain the key driver for AUD crosses.</li> <li>Sticky Australian inflation could keep the yield differential in AUD’s favour.</li> <li>Other central banks staying cautious or dovish would strengthen the relative AUD story.</li> <li>The commodity angle also matters, with Australia’s terms-of-trade story looking stronger than economies exposed to energy-import costs.</li> <li>AUD crosses may offer a cleaner expression if USD strength keeps AUD/USD capped.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <ul> <li>EUR/AUD could fall if Europe remains more vulnerable to energy and growth shocks.</li> <li>AUD/NZD could be interesting if markets see the RBA as more hawkish than the RBNZ.</li> <li>If USD is noisy, AUD crosses may offer a cleaner signal than AUD/USD.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Risks</strong></p> <ul> <li>AUD crosses can still be hit in broad risk-off.</li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong>Bottom line</strong></h2> <p>AUD/USD is trading at fresh highs since 2022 because the market is treating Australia differently. The RBA may be signalling a pause, but sticky inflation, policy divergence and commodity relevance are giving AUD a stronger macro story.</p> <p>The bullish structure remains intact above <strong>0.6994–0.6965</strong>, while a sustained break above <strong>0.7300</strong> would make the upside case more compelling. But AUD is still cyclical, still exposed to China sentiment and still vulnerable to risk-off shocks.</p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Silver</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>CSG’s short-seller shock: the lesson beyond one falling share price</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 13:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>CSG shares fell sharply after Hunterbrook questioned its business model</strong> and production capacity.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>The market reaction shows how quickly confidence can break</strong> when a growth story is challenged.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>For investors, the lesson is simple:</strong> demand beats headlines, but evidence beats both.</span></p> </span></p> <span> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>CSG (Czechoslovak Group) is a Czech defence company listed in Amsterdam. It makes and sells ammunition, military vehicles, air traffic control systems and other defence equipment. In simple terms, it sits in one of the market’s hottest areas: Europe’s rearmament.</span></p> <p><span>That heat cooled fast on 4 May 2026. CSG shares closed at 16.00 EUR, down about 13%, after Hunterbrook Capital published a short-seller report questioning the company’s production capacity, business model and disclosures. A short seller is an investor betting that a share price will fall. </span></p> <p><span>CSG strongly rejected the allegations. The company said the report was inaccurate, selective and misleading, and stood by its initial public offering documents and disclosures. The bigger story is not only CSG. It is about what happens when a popular investment theme meets a hard question: is the company really what investors think it is?</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The market sold the story, not just the stock</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CSG came to market during a powerful defence boom. European governments are spending more after years of underinvestment, and ammunition has become a strategic priority after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That gave CSG a simple and attractive story: Europe needs more shells, CSG can supply them.</span></p> <p><span>Hunterbrook’s report challenged the heart of that story. It argued that CSG may rely more on reselling or refurbishing ammunition than investors had understood, rather than mainly producing it in-house. That matters because markets value manufacturers and traders differently.</span></p> <p><span>A manufacturer with scarce capacity can look like a bottleneck business. A trader can still be useful, but it may have thinner margins, more supplier dependence and less control. Same sector, different animal. Investors do not like discovering they may have bought a horse and found a very energetic donkey.</span></p> <p><span>CSG says this interpretation misunderstands its model. It says production takes place across a distributed network of facilities and that its own-production capacity reached about 630,000 rounds in 2025. It also expects own production to rise by roughly 20 percent in 2026 and targets 1.1 million rounds over the medium term.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Defence demand is real, but quality still matters</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The defence theme remains strong. Europe needs to rebuild ammunition stocks, modernise equipment and reduce reliance on non-European suppliers. That supports long-term demand for companies with credible capacity, strong execution and clean governance.</span></p> <p><span>But a strong theme does not protect every stock equally. When investors buy a fast-growing defence company, they are not only buying demand. They are buying trust in management, contract quality, production claims, debt levels and disclosure.</span></p> <p><span>This is why the CSG case matters beyond one company. It reminds investors that defence stocks can still carry normal company risks. Factories can be delayed. Framework agreements can be mistaken for firm orders. Acquisitions can add complexity. Founder control can be positive when aligned, but it also requires careful governance checks.</span></p> <p><span>CSG also clarified that a 58 billion EUR Slovak ammunition framework is potential value over seven years, not a committed order book. That distinction is important. A framework is like being on the approved supplier list for a very large wedding. It does not mean the cake has already been ordered.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What investors can watch next</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The near-term test is CSG’s next update. The company said it will provide more detail with its first-quarter results on 20 May 2026. Investors should watch whether management gives clear, measurable answers on production, recommissioning, order conversion and cash flow.</span></p> <p><span>The main risks are now credibility, complexity and cycle risk. Credibility risk means investors may require more proof before trusting guidance. Complexity risk comes from acquisitions, related-party questions and cross-border production networks. Cycle risk is the possibility that ammunition demand remains strong, but not strong enough to justify every valuation in the sector.</span></p> <p><span>Useful early warning signs include vague disclosure, repeated changes in production language, rising debt without matching cash generation, and large frameworks that do not turn into firm orders.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Separate theme strength from company quality.</strong> A good industry does not make every stock good. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare order books, frameworks and actual deliveries.</strong> They are not the same thing. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch cash flow, not only revenue growth. </strong>Cash is harder to flatter. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Keep position size linked to confidence,</strong> not excitement. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The shell count matters</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CSG’s sell-off is a reminder that markets can love a story on Monday and ask for receipts by Tuesday. The defence boom is not imaginary. Europe does need more ammunition, vehicles and industrial capacity. But long-term investors should still ask basic questions: who makes the product, who owns the capacity, who controls the supply chain, and how much of the revenue is already secured? In hot sectors, simple questions become more valuable, not less. CSG may yet prove its case, but the lesson is already clear: in investing, even ammunition stories need ammunition.</span></p> <p><em ><br /> This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <span> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p> <p> </p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Does this market rhyme with 1926, 1928 or even 1929?</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 10:24:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Or none of the above?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> </h4> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/does-this-market-rhyme-with-1926-1928-or-even-1929/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.<span ></span></h4> <span ></span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 10:01:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong><span>One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows</span></strong></h1> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why Spreading Risk Across Multiple Asset Types Can Matter for Investors</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For many investors, investing often starts with a single product type. We tend to invest in things we already know, and for many people, that will be stocks. That’s a natural place to begin. But over time, market ups and downs can highlight an important question: <em>What happens when everything you own moves in the same direction at the same time?</em></span></p> <p><span>One way investors try to manage this challenge is by spreading risk across multiple asset types. This concept is often referred to as <strong>multi-asset or multi-product investing</strong>. </span><span >Recent data from </span><strong >Saxo’s own client base</strong><span > offers useful insight into how this approach has played out in practice.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What Saxo’s Client Data Shows</span></strong></h3> <p><span>You have most likely already heard about diversification and the importance of a diversified portfolio, so let’s compare the performance of single-asset vs. multi-asset portfolios. Looking at <strong>five years of data from Saxo’s clients</strong>, a clear pattern emerges:<br /> <strong>Clients who invested across multiple product types tended, on average, to experience more stable and often stronger outcomes than those who focused on a single product type.<br /> </strong></span></p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span >In this context:<br /> </span> <ul> <li><span><strong>Single-product investors</strong></span> are clients who invest in just one type of product within their portfolio (for example, only stocks).</li> <li><span><strong>Multi-product investors</strong>, also referred to as multi-asset investors,</span> are clients who invest across multiple product types (for example, a combination of stocks, ETFs, or other instruments).</li> </ul> <p>Performance is measured as <span><strong>profit or loss over the year relative to the investor’s average total assets</strong></span><strong>,</strong> providing a consistent basis for comparison.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>A Smoother Ride Through Different Market Conditions</strong></span></h3> <p>The differences become particularly visible during challenging market periods. <span>In 2022, markets were difficult across the globe. </span><span>Saxo’s data shows that:</span></p> <ul> <li>Single-asset investors experienced a deeper average decline.</li> <li>Multi-asset investors also faced losses, but <span><strong>the drawdown was meaningfully smaller</strong></span><strong>.</strong></li> </ul> <p>This highlights an important point for less experienced investors:<br /> when markets fall sharply, having exposure to more than one type of asset can help <span><strong>reduce the impact of extreme movements</strong></span><strong>.</strong></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Participation When Markets Recover</strong></span></h3> <p>In more positive market years, the data shows that multi-asset investors did not “miss out” on recovery phases.</p> <ul> <li>In 2023, 2024, and 2025, multi-product investors, on average, achieved <span><strong>higher annual performance figures</strong></span> than single-product investors.</li> <li>This suggests that diversification doesn’t necessarily mean giving up growth. A diversified portfolio can still allow participation when markets move upward, while helping manage downside risk.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Why This Matters for Investors</strong></span></h3> <p>For investors who are not monitoring markets every day or adjusting positions frequently, diversification can play an important role in risk management rather than return maximisation.</p> <p>Based on Saxo’s client data, spreading investments across different product types may help:</p> <ul> <li>Reduce the severity of losses in difficult market environments</li> <li>Smooth overall portfolio performance from year to year</li> <li>Lower the emotional stress that can come from large swings in portfolio value</li> </ul> <p>This can be especially relevant for retail investors with limited market experience, where sharp losses may lead to emotional decision-making at the wrong time.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>What multi-asset investing is - and isn’t</strong></span></h3> <p>It’s important to be clear about what this data does <em>not</em> imply.</p> <ul> <li>Diversification does <span><strong>not</strong></span> eliminate risk</li> <li>Losses can still occur, even in diversified portfolios</li> <li>Past outcomes do not guarantee future results</li> </ul> <p>What the data does show is that, historically, <span><strong>Saxo clients who spread their investments across multiple product types tended to experience more resilient outcomes over time,</strong></span> compared to those concentrated in a single product.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>In Summary</strong></span></h3> <p>Saxo’s client data over the past five years suggests that:</p> <ul> <li>Investing across multiple product types has historically been associated with <span><strong>more stable and often stronger outcomes</strong></span></li> <li>Diversification may help soften the impact of difficult market years</li> <li>A multi-asset approach can support long-term investing by managing risk rather than relying on a single market outcome</li> </ul> <p>For retail investors, understanding how different assets behave — and why spreading risk can matter — is a key step toward building confidence in navigating financial markets.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span> <span>Stocks</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks, KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 09:03:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Iran broke the ceasefire on Monday, firing cruise missiles and drones at the UAE for the first time since the truce began in April. European indices fell between 1% and 2%, VIX jumped nearly 8% to 18.29, and put/call ratios spiked across the board. Against the grain, South Korea’s KOSPI surged 5.12% to a fresh record on AI-chip demand and the US “Project Freedom” trade initiative</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief – Ceasefire cracks, KOSPI soars – 5 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A split tape defined Monday – geopolitical risk returned to the Gulf, and the options market noticed.</em></p> <p>Iran fired cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones at the UAE on Monday – the first attack on a Gulf state since the US-Iran ceasefire took hold in early April – activating the UAE’s air defence system and reversing what had opened as a broadly risk-on session. European indices sold off more than 1%, US equities retreated, and the options market responded with its most pronounced hedging activity in several sessions, all while the KOSPI closed at a fresh record on AI-chip momentum and a new US trade initiative.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p><em>Iran breaks the ceasefire – the Gulf is back on the risk dashboard.</em></p> <p>The UAE’s Ministry of Defence activated its air defence system on Monday for the first time since the US-Iran ceasefire began, intercepting 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones fired from Iran. Bloomberg and CNBC both confirmed the attack, describing it as the first strike on a Gulf state since the truce took hold in early April. The event arrived mid-session in US markets, reversing an opening that had been constructive on Hormuz thaw momentum from the prior weekend.</p> <p>The immediate market response was geographically uneven. European indices, more sensitive to energy supply chain disruption, fell between 1% and 2%. US equities declined more modestly. Bond yields rose and the dollar edged higher. Meanwhile, the KOSPI – already rallying on AI memory chip demand and the US “Project Freedom” trade initiative – closed up 5.12% at a fresh record high, unaffected by the Iran news given South Korea’s different macro exposure and earlier trading hours. Note: the KOSPI is closed Tuesday 5 May for Children’s Day.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p><em>US equities retreat, Europe sells off, Korea surges – a three-speed Monday.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US equities (Monday 4 May close):</strong> S&P 500 –0.41% to 7,200.75, off Friday’s record close of 7,230.12. Dow Jones Industrial Average –1.13% to 48,941.90, led lower by Home Depot, Nike, and Boeing. Nasdaq 100 –0.21% to 27,651.82. Russell 2000 –0.60% to 2,795.9966.</li> <li><strong>Europe (Monday 4 May close):</strong> Euro Stoxx 50 –2.00% to 5,763.62; DAX –1.24% to 23,991.27. European markets absorbed a larger repricing, consistent with greater exposure to energy supply chain risk through the Strait of Hormuz.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> KOSPI +5.12% to a record 6,936.99, driven by Samsung and SK Hynix on AI memory chip demand and the US “Project Freedom” trade initiative. KOSPI is closed Tuesday for Children’s Day (South Korea public holiday).</li> <li><strong>Rates and FX:</strong> US 10-year Treasury yield +6 basis points to 4.43%. US dollar index edged higher.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> WTI crude oil rose intraday on the Iran news before pulling back toward $104 in early Tuesday trading.</li> <li><strong>Tuesday 5 May pre-market (~06:30 CET):</strong> S&P 500 futures +0.12% to 7,239.25. Nasdaq 100 futures +0.21% to 27,834.75. Russell 2000 futures +0.28% to 2,812.40. Modestly positive pre-market suggests markets are not yet treating the ceasefire as fully broken.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market regime (~06:39 CET):</strong> NEUTRAL / CHOP – VIX 18.3, 20-day realised vol 11.9% (declining), SPX +5.46% above its 50-day moving average. Implied volatility is running well above realised vol, which structurally favours premium-selling strategies. The regime has not shifted from last Friday despite Monday’s geopolitical escalation.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p><em>VIX up 7.65%, SKEW elevated, put/call ratios spike – hedging activity rises but the regime holds.</em></p> <p>VIX closed Monday at 18.29, up 7.65% from Friday’s close of 16.99 – a meaningful single-session jump that nonetheless keeps spot implied volatility (the market’s expectation of future price swings) within the NEUTRAL/CHOP regime. The more revealing signal is in the term structure: the 1-day VIX (VIX1D) actually fell to 12.70, while the 9-day measure (VIX9D) surged 17.31% to 16.60, indicating the market is pricing elevated uncertainty in the one-to-two-week window rather than expecting a same-day shock. Front-month VIX futures settled at 19.850, maintaining a contango of roughly 1.56 points above spot – a normal structure under current conditions.</p> <p>VVIX – the implied volatility of VIX options, a measure of “vol of vol” – rose to 98.29, approaching the 100 threshold that typically marks a transition from orderly to stressed volatility conditions. SKEW printed at 141.74, confirming elevated demand for out-of-the-money put protection. Equity put/call ratios spiked broadly: the index put/call ratio (PCCI) rose 14.22% to 1.12 and the equity-only measure (PCSX) surged 20.75% to 1.28, both confirming active hedging activity across Monday’s session.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Put spread over outright OTM puts when skew is elevated.</strong> With SKEW at 141.74, implied volatility on out-of-the-money puts is running materially above at-the-money levels. Buying a put spread – purchasing a near-the-money put and simultaneously selling a lower-strike out-of-the-money put – captures similar directional downside exposure while partially funding the cost through the rich skew premium embedded in the short leg. The result is a lower net premium outlay than an outright OTM put purchase, with a comparable payoff profile within the spread’s range.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Weekly expirations carry more hedging premium than 0DTE today.</strong> The collapse in VIX1D to 12.70 while VIX9D sits at 16.60 is an actionable term structure signal: Tuesday itself is not priced as a risk day, but the following one to two weeks are. Weekly SPX options (7–14 days to expiry) are carrying proportionally more implied volatility than same-strike zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) contracts. For premium sellers, weekly expirations offer a better vol pickup today; for traders hedging the Iran tail risk specifically, weekly puts provide more value relative to their daily counterparts.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Monday’s session began as a continuation of Friday’s record-close momentum – Asia and Europe were rallying on Hormuz thaw optimism – and ended on a more uncertain note. Iran’s missile and drone attack on the UAE broke a ceasefire that had held for nearly a month, pushing VIX 7.65% higher, sending European equities lower by 1–2%, and lifting put/call ratios across the board. Tuesday’s modestly positive futures suggest markets are not yet pricing a return to open conflict – but the elevated SKEW, rising VVIX, and higher put/call ratios indicate traders are taking the development seriously. The session setup for Tuesday is cautiously constructive; the geopolitical situation warrants attention.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---apple-record---hormuz-thaw---4-may-2026-04052026" data-id="58EA0EC2F71F4219A74DD43D9ED25F21" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---big-tech-divides-oil-surges---30-april-2026-30042026" data-id="9076C52B7D3E4A398EE5B8A960763F98" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Big Tech divides oil surges - 30 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-night-fed-holds---29-april-2026-29042026" data-id="E829D7CC98414B4EB9EE8FB3C5E9C259" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings night Fed holds - 29 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-on-deck---28-april-2026-28042026" data-id="C2697121DE0A4E92B1BD27C9120C4A88" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chips-surge-hormuz-still-shut---27-april-2026-27042026" data-id="65A61D18CD7544878B0FDD2A05A43F15" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chips surge Hormuz still shut - 27 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-jolt---us-records---23-april-2026-23042026" data-id="A747E1CADA614BC7A2A9AF01EFDF3A2F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil jolt - US records - 23 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-ceasefire-extends---risk-on---22-april-2026-22042026" data-id="D6A3827E67E4499D83DDE0D7D4EB0235" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran ceasefire extends - risk-on - 22 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-spikes---equities-hold---21-april-2026-21042026" data-id="FA96C4C1B6B947879D54395E04D55CFC" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil spikes - equities hold - 21 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief--hormuz-noise-earnings-take-over---20-april-2026-20042026" data-id="2DC20B4A18C54482A2949D0065D47347" data-type="Article">Options Brief Hormuz noise earnings take over - 20 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---nasdaq-12-day-winning-streak---17-april-2026-17042026" data-id="17CFA0D942E046EF9FEC4A5BFCFEE494" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Nasdaq 12-day winning streak - 17 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Palantir just raised the bar. Investors still checked the price tag</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p data-start="419" data-end="570" class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p class="text--body"><span></span></p> <p class="text--body"><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Palantir’s growth is accelerating,</strong> but the stock already carries very high expectations.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>The results support the case that artificial intelligence software can generate real cash</strong> flow.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>For investors, the lesson is process: </strong>separate business quality from share-price excitement.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p /><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Palantir has become one of the market’s favourite Rorschach tests. Bulls see a rare artificial intelligence (AI) software company turning hype into revenue. Sceptics see a great business wrapped in a very expensive stock. Both can be partly right, which is annoying but useful.</span></p> <p /><span>On 4 May 2026, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of 1.63 billion USD, up 85% from a year earlier and above the 1.54 billion USD expected by Bloomberg consensus. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook to between 7.65 billion USD and 7.66 billion USD, ahead of the previous guidance. Yet the stock was still down more than 2%, a useful reminder that strong results do not always trigger strong share-price reactions when expectations are already very high.</span></span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Palantir builds software that helps governments and companies bring messy data together, analyse it and make decisions faster. In plain English, it sells digital command rooms. The customers can be armies, intelligence agencies, hospitals, factories or banks. The work is not simple dashboard decoration. This is software that tries to sit inside the operating system of an organisation.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>A strong quarter, but not a free lunch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The headline numbers were strong. United States (US) revenue grew 104% from a year earlier. US commercial revenue rose 133% to 595 million USD, while US government revenue rose 84% to 687 million USD. Adjusted free cash flow was 925 million USD, which means cash left after running the business and investing in long-term needs.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because many investors worry that AI software companies may be long on demos and short on profits. Palantir’s answer was simple: here are the receipts. Revenue is growing fast, margins are high, and the company raised its outlook. In a software market worried that AI might eat old business models, Palantir showed that some companies may feed the machine rather than become lunch.</span></p> <p><span>Still, the share-price reaction was muted. That is not strange. The market had already placed Palantir on a very tall chair. When expectations are extreme, even excellent results can look merely excellent. Luxury problem, but still a problem.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why the market did not throw confetti</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first reason is valuation. Palantir is still priced like a company that must keep growing quickly for a long time. A high price-to-sales ratio means investors pay a large stock-market value for each dollar of company revenue. That can work when growth keeps surprising. It becomes uncomfortable when growth slows, competition rises, or margins slip.</span></p> <p><span>The second reason is mix. The company’s US government business was stronger than expected, helped by defence and national-security demand. That is a powerful growth engine, especially as governments spend more on data, AI and modern warfare. But it also makes the story politically sensitive. Some investors like the durability of government contracts. Others worry about headline risk, regulation and ethical debate.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span>The third reason is commercial momentum. US commercial revenue is growing very fast, but it slightly missed some expectations. That sounds odd, because growing 133% is not exactly a quiet Tuesday. But high-growth stocks are judged against high-growth hopes. When a company trades at a premium, investors do not just ask whether the business is good. They ask whether it is better than the already-good story in the price.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bigger software message</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Palantir’s results matter beyond Palantir. The software sector is facing a difficult question: does AI make software companies more valuable, or does it make their products easier to copy?</span></p> <p><span>Palantir argues for the first answer. Its strength is not only the model, but the messy integration work around it. Companies do not just need clever AI. They need AI connected to real data, permissions, workflows and decisions. That is the boring plumbing that keeps the shiny kitchen from flooding.</span></p> <p><span>This has broader implications. The winners in AI software may be less about who has the best demo and more about who becomes hard to remove. If a system helps run procurement, logistics, defence planning or fraud detection, switching away is painful. That can create durability.</span></p> <p><span>But it also raises the bar for everyone else. Traditional software companies need to show that AI adds real value, not just a button with sparkle. Investors should watch whether customers pay more, sign longer contracts and expand usage. In this market, “we added AI” is no longer a strategy. It is table stakes.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is valuation fatigue. If growth slows, even slightly, a richly valued stock can move sharply. Early warning signs include weaker guidance, lower deal activity or management talking more about long-term vision than current demand.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is competition. Large technology companies and AI model providers are moving fast. If customers can build similar tools more cheaply, Palantir’s pricing power could be tested.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is political and ethical scrutiny. Defence, surveillance and immigration-related work can bring stable revenue, but also public pressure. Investors should watch contract wins, but also any signs of customer pushback, legal challenges or reputational damage.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate business quality from share valuation.</strong> A good company is not always a good entry price. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch cash flow, not only revenue.</strong> Real cash is harder to narrate into existence. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Track customer mix. </strong>Government demand is durable, but political risk comes attached. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare AI promises with paid adoption. </strong>Contracts matter more than conference-stage poetry. </span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The command-room lesson</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Palantir’s quarter shows why the company divides opinion. It is producing the kind of growth, cash flow and strategic relevance that many AI software firms would happily frame and hang in reception. But the stock also carries a price that leaves little room for average behaviour. <br /> <br /> For long-term investors, the useful lesson is not to cheer or dismiss the company. It is to ask a better question: where is AI turning from experiment into essential workflow? Palantir’s answer is powerful, but the market’s reply is equally important. Even in artificial intelligence, the oldest investing rule survives: the story matters, but the price still votes.</span></p> </h3> <p> </p> <p><em >This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <p class="text--body"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 5 May 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 06:26:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 5 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US and Europe slipped on oil and tariff worries, while Asia rallied as chip stocks drove record highs</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Geopolitics and oil strength are pushing volatility higher, with hedging demand rising</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin holds near USD 81k with Ether steady, while altcoins edge higher and ETF demand via IBIT and ETHA supports sentiment</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> Global bond yields jump on the latest surge in crude oil prices. US Treasuries eyeing cycle highs</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> USD firms on surge in crude oil prices. AUD weak after dovish RBA guidance relative to expectations</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Gold and silver on the defensive after surge in crude oil prices on fresh US-Iran confrontation in Persian Gulf</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> US Mar. Trade Balance, US Apr ISM Services, US Mar. JOLTS Job Openings</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining a four-week ceasefire</strong>. US forces said they repelled Iranian attacks while escorting two US-flagged ships, and the UAE reported intercepting missiles and a fire at its Fujairah oil terminal. Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US–Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices.</li> <li><strong>Australia’s Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate for a third consecutive time Tuesday</strong>, taking the policy rate to 4.35% from 4.1% by a vote of 8-1 on the policy committee, with the dissenter looking for no change. Guidance at the Governor Bullock press conference suggested that the RBA now sees the policy rate as “a bit restrictive” and that hikes wouldn’t aid the fight against the inflation over the next six months. Short Australian yields fell sharply as the market read this guidance as far more dovish than expected – Australian two-year interest rate swaps fell seven basis points.</li> <li><strong>Australia’s services PMI was revised up to 50.7 in April from 50.3 and 46.3 in March</strong>, signaling modest growth. Activity and jobs increased, but domestic demand and new orders fell amid higher fuel costs from the Middle East war. Export orders recovered slightly. Input costs and selling prices rose at their fastest pace since 2022 and early 2023 respectively, while business sentiment stayed muted.</li> <li><strong>US factory orders rose 1.5% m/m in March 2026, beating the 0.5% forecast after a 0.3% gain in February</strong>. Durable orders were up 0.8%, led by a 3.6% jump in computers and electronics on strong AI and data-center demand, and higher transport equipment. Nondurable orders rose 2.1%, the highest since October 2022. Orders ex-transport were up 1.6%, ex-defense 0.9%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> 1230 – US Mar. Trade Balance<br /> 1400 – US Apr. ISM Services<br /> 1400 – US Mar. JOLTS Job Openings<br /> 2100 – New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report<br /> 2245 – New Zealand Q1 Employment and Earnings Data </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings this week</strong></h4> <ul> <li> <div> <div><strong>Monday (yesterday)</strong>: <span >Palantir, Pinterest, ON Semiconductor, Tyson Foods, Norwegian Cruise Line, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Williams Companies.</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Tuesday</strong>: AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Cummins, Eaton, KKR.</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Disney, Uber, Arm, DoorDash, CVS Health, Marriott, Novo Nordisk, Johnson Controls.</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Thursday</strong>: Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income.</span></div> </div> </li> <li> <div> <div><span ></span><span ><strong>Friday</strong>: Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.</span></div> </div> <strong> <div> <div> </div> </div> </strong></li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,200.8 from record highs, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.2% to 25,067.8 and the Dow lost 1.1% to 48,941.9 as higher oil prices revived inflation worries. Energy was the only sector in green, while materials led the decline. eBay gained 5.1% after GameStop made a surprise USD 56 billion takeover bid, while GameStop fell 10.1% as investors questioned the deal math. Apple lost 1.2%, while UPS dropped 10.5% after Amazon’s logistics push raised competition fears. Palantir fell 2.7% even after raising its 2026 revenue outlook, with revenue growth accelerating 85%, its fastest pace since 2020, showing that strong numbers are not always enough when expectations are already high.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.0% to 605.51, while the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 2.0% to 5,763.61 and Germany’s DAX declined 1.2% to 23,991.27 as oil prices rose on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Auto shares also came under pressure after President Trump’s renewed 25% tariff threat on European car imports. ASML fell 2.9% and weighed most on the Stoxx 600, while CSG dropped 13.1% after a disclosed short position hit sentiment. London was closed for the early May bank holiday, making Europe’s tape a little thinner than usual.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian stocks rallied to record highs, led by semiconductors, as investors rotated back into the region’s artificial intelligence supply chain. South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.1% to 6,936.99, helped by Samsung Electronics rising 5.4% and SK Hynix jumping 12.5% on renewed memory-chip optimism. Taiwan’s TWSE Index climbed 4.6% to a record high, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing up 6.6% in its strongest session in more than a year. Hong Kong also finished higher, while Japan, mainland China and Thailand were closed for holidays. Markets now watch whether the chip rally broadens or remains a very expensive group project.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility edged higher as geopolitical risk returned to focus</strong>, with the US–Iran ceasefire showing signs of strain and keeping oil prices elevated. The S&P 500 closed at 7,200.75 (-0.41%), while the <strong>VIX rose to 18.29 (+7.65%),</strong> pointing to a pickup in hedging demand rather than outright stress. For investors, the key risk is that sustained energy strength and potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz <strong>could keep inflation expectations elevated</strong>, limiting central bank flexibility as markets move through a heavy data and earnings week. <strong>Today’s focus includes US ISM services and JOLTS job openings,</strong> both relevant for rate expectations.</li> <li>Based on SPX options pricing, the <strong>market is implying a move of about ±91 points (±1.27%) into Friday’s expiry</strong>, and around ±41 points (±0.56%) for today.</li> <li>The 0DTE skew indicator shows puts still priced richer than calls near spot, signalling <strong>continued demand for downside protection</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crypto markets are holding firm despite a more fragile macro backdrop</strong>, suggesting continued support from institutional flows. <strong>Bitcoin is trading around USD 80,999 (+1.4%), while Ether is near USD 2,381 (+1.4%)</strong>, both maintaining recent gains even as broader risk sentiment softens. Altcoins are modestly higher, with Solana (~USD 85), XRP (~USD 1.40), and Dogecoin (~USD 0.11) tracking the general risk tone rather than leading it.</li> <li><strong>Crypto-linked equities are outperforming</strong>, with Coinbase, MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital all advancing, reinforcing the view that equity proxies remain more reactive than spot crypto.</li> <li><strong>ETF demand continues to provide a key anchor</strong>, with flows concentrated in IBIT for Bitcoin exposure and steady interest in ETHA for Ether.</li> <li>At the same time, options flow points to a more cautious undertone, with hedging activity in crypto equities suggesting investors are protecting against near-term event risk. For longer-term investors,<strong> crypto remains supported, but still behaves as a risk asset when macro uncertainty rises</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasury yields jumped on the latest surge in crude oil prices</strong>, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield peaking just below the key 4.00% level before easing back to 3.95%, up over seven basis points from Friday’s closing levels. At the longer end of the yield curve, the benchmark US 10-year yield rose some seven basis points on the day Monday, closing just below 4.44% and therefore at the highest daily close since last July as traders eye the big round 4.50% level.</li> <li><strong>European yields jumped</strong> on the latest surge in crude oil prices, with the benchmark 2-year German Schatz yield closing Monday’s trade at 2.73%, which is near the cycle high posted intraday Friday at 2.77%, but up nine basis points from Friday’s much lower close at 2.64%. The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose less sharply, perhaps reflecting concerns that higher energy prices will drag on growth. It closed Monday up five basis points at 3.09%, two basis points shy of the cycle high closing level last Thursday.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s markets are closed through Wednesday</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Crude oil prices rocketed higher Monday as the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf </strong>as the US attempted to escort vessels through the Hormuz Strait. The UAE reported attempts to intercept a round of Iranian missiles and drones, the first launched against the country since the ceasefire starting April 8. One drone hit an oil terminal complex at the UAE’s Fujairah port, starting a fire. July Brent rose over USD 6 per barrel and briefly touched a new contract high above USD 115/bbl Monday before settling back below 113 in early trading Tuesday. June WTI trades near USD 104.50 early Tuesday, down from an intraday high Monday of 107.46.</li> <li><strong>Gold and silver prices dropped sharply on the latest spike in global bond yields</strong>, with spot gold almost eyeing the key USD 4,500 / oz. level late Monday before rebounding slightly to trade USD 4,536 early Tuesday, still down USD 80 / oz. from Friday’s closing level. Silver tumbled as low as USD 72.2 / oz. Monday after opening the day well above USD 75. If the selling pressure continues, traders will eye the local low just below USD 71.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar firmed on the latest surge in crude oil prices </strong>from the US-Iran confrontation in the Hormuz Strait and Iran’s attempted and actual strikes against the UAE. The Dollar Index rose a bit less than 0.5% from Friday’s close by early Tuesday, held back by USDJPY (see below). The dollar index has posted a double low in April and now early May just below 98.00, now a key line in the sand. EURUSD retreated and closed below 1.1700 Monday, eyeing the recent three-week lows of 1.1655 if the selling continues.</li> <li><strong>The JPY generally avoided weakening </strong>(the expected direction with a fresh jump in crude oil prices and bond yields) as traders are wary of taking on Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which has shown its teeth in recent massive intervention efforts to support the JPY higher after stern verbal warnings on <strong>USDJPY </strong>crossing above 160.00. The high of the local range since the intervention began has been near 157.30, where <strong>USDJPY </strong>trades early Tuesday amidst a broader USD firming.</li> <li><strong>RBA: With the dovish guidance at the RBA press conference</strong> (see under Macro headlines above), <strong>the Australian dollar weakened sharply</strong>, with <strong>AUDUSD </strong>falling to below 0.7140 early Tuesday, adding to the decline from a strong USD on Monday, where <strong>AUDUSD </strong>started the week near 0.7200. Elsewhere, <strong>AUDNZD </strong>tumbled over 30 pips from Monday’s close, trading near 1.2170 early Tuesday.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold positioning framework: consolidate first, breakout later</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 03:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li>Gold is sitting in a <strong>messy consolidation zone</strong>, caught between safe-haven demand and a technical setup that still looks heavy. </li> <li>The key takeaway from the chart: <strong>bulls need to reclaim the 50-day moving average and the 50% retracement zone to regain control. </strong></li> <li>Until then,<strong> rallies may be faded </strong>and dips may be assessed near support.</li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Chart: key XAU/USD levels</span></h2> <br /> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Three scenarios for XAU/USD</span></h2> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Scenario 1: Choppy range remains the base case</h3> <p><strong>Level to watch:</strong> <strong>$4,450–4,850</strong></p> <p>Gold is currently trapped between support around <strong>$4,450</strong> and resistance around <strong>$4,850</strong>. That range matters because it captures the current tug-of-war: geopolitical hedging keeps buyers interested on dips, but higher real yields and a firm dollar continue to cap rallies.</p> <p><strong>What drives this scenario</strong></p> <ul > <li>Mixed US data that keeps the Fed cautious but not aggressively hawkish</li> <li>Geopolitical risk that remains present but does not escalate materially</li> <li>Central bank buying and long-term diversification demand supporting dips</li> <li>Real yields and the dollar staying firm enough to limit upside momentum</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <p>This is a market for patience rather than conviction. Traders may monitor dips toward support and reassess rallies near resistance, but a clean directional signal is still missing.</p> <p><strong>Key risk</strong></p> <p>Range positioning can become uncomfortable quickly if gold breaks either side. A close above <strong>$4,850</strong> shifts the setup toward bullish momentum, while a break below <strong>$4,450</strong> opens deeper downside risk.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Scenario 2: Bullish breakout above $4,850</h3> <p><strong>Level to watch:</strong> <strong>Above $4,850</strong></p> <p>A move above <strong>$4,850</strong> would be the clearest signal that gold is moving out of consolidation and back into recovery mode. That level lines up with the 50% retracement zone and sits close to the 50-day moving average, making it an important technical pivot.</p> <p><strong>What drives this scenario</strong></p> <ul > <li>Falling real yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold</li> <li>A weaker US dollar, amid escalating US fiscal concerns or easing geopolitical threats</li> <li>Stronger central bank buying narrative or reserve diversification flows</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <p>A confirmed break above <strong>$4,850</strong> would improve the momentum setup. The next levels to monitor would be <strong>$5,024</strong>, followed by <strong>$5,242</strong> if macro stress or dollar weakness intensifies.</p> <p><strong>Key risk</strong></p> <p>A breakout can fail if real yields rebound or the dollar strengthens again. Gold has already struggled near this zone, so confirmation matters. A false break could quickly pull the market back into the range.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Scenario 3: Bearish breakdown below $4,450</h3> <p><strong>Level to watch:</strong> <strong>Below $4,450</strong></p> <p>A break below <strong>$4,450</strong> would weaken the near-term structure and bring the <strong>200-day moving average near $4,288</strong> into focus. That is the key medium-term support line. If it gives way, the correction could extend toward <strong>$4,099</strong>.</p> <p><strong>What drives this scenario</strong></p> <ul > <li>Higher US real yields as inflation concerns deepen </li> <li>A stronger US dollar</li> <li>Profit-taking after crowded long positioning</li> <li>Markets pricing fewer Fed cuts or a more hawkish policy path</li> </ul> <p><strong>Positioning lens</strong></p> <p>Below <strong>$4,450</strong>, investors may become more selective on adding exposure. Portfolio hedgers could reassess hedge ratios, while tactical traders may watch for a move toward the 200-day moving average.</p> <p><strong>Key risk</strong></p> <p>Gold can squeeze higher quickly if geopolitical stress returns or the dollar reverses. A breakdown driven mainly by positioning, rather than fundamentals, may also prove short-lived.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Bottom line</strong></h2> <p>Gold is not broken, but it is not back in a clean uptrend either.</p> <p>The framework is simple:</p> <ul > <li><strong>Below $4,850:</strong> range-bound, rallies may struggle.</li> <li><strong>Above $4,850:</strong> recovery setup improves, with <strong>$5,024</strong> next.</li> <li><strong>Below $4,450:</strong> downside opens toward the <strong>200-day moving average near $4,288</strong>.</li> </ul> <p>For now, gold remains a range market with macro headline risk on both sides.</p> <p> </p> </div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Silver</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>USD/JPY after intervention: scenario playbook for traders</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 01:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><span>Friday’s intervention has likely <strong>bought Japan time, not changed the USD/JPY trend yet</strong>. The chart still shows a broader uptrend, but the <strong>160–162 zone is now a clear policy ceiling</strong> where intervention risk rises sharply.</span></li> <li><span>The bigger issue is that <strong>yen upside is hard to sustain if oil stays high</strong>. Japan is a major energy importer, so elevated oil keeps pressure on the trade balance, imported inflation and real incomes. </span></li> <li><span>That means intervention can slow yen weakness, but a cleaner JPY rally likely needs <strong>quick oil downside</strong>, softer US yields, or a more forceful BOJ signal.</span></li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Chart: key USD/JPY levels</span></h2> <p ><span></span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Three scenarios for USD/JPY</span></h2> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Scenario 1: Intervention only buys time - USD/JPY drifts back towards 160</span></h2> <p><span>This is the <strong>base case</strong> unless the macro backdrop changes. Intervention can make investors nervous about chasing USD/JPY higher, but unilateral FX intervention rarely changes the trend by itself when rate differentials, oil prices and capital flows remain yen-negative.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What drives this scenario</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>Oil stays elevated, keeping pressure on Japan’s import bill.</span></li> <li><span>US yields remain firm as markets price sticky inflation and a cautious Fed.</span></li> <li><span>BOJ remains gradual and does not validate intervention with a stronger rate-hike signal.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Market implication</span></strong></p> <p><span>USD/JPY may stay in a <strong>155–160 range</strong>, with intervention risk capping the topside but macro support limiting the downside. The <strong>155–156</strong> area may remain an important zone to monitor, as USD support could re-emerge there unless oil rolls over or US yields fall.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning framework</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>USD/JPY above <strong>159–160</strong> may warrant caution, as intervention risk is highest in this zone.</span></li> <li><span>Traders could monitor the <strong>155–156</strong> area for signs of whether USD support is re-emerging or whether intervention pressure is gaining traction.</span></li> <li><span>For those with JPY liabilities, moves toward <strong>155–156</strong> could be used for illustrative scenario planning around hedge ratios, rather than assuming a perfect reversal.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Key risk</span></strong></p> <p><span>Another round of intervention could trigger a sudden 2–3 big-figure move lower, especially in thin liquidity. This is a market where stop losses matter.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Scenario 2: Intervention plus oil downside creates a cleaner yen rally - USD/JPY breaks 155 and heads toward 152/150</span></h2> <p><span>This is the <strong>yen-bullish scenario</strong>, but it needs more than intervention. The yen needs macro help. The cleanest support would come from <strong>quick oil downside</strong>, softer US yields, and a BOJ that sounds more willing to act.</span></p> <p><span>High oil is the key complication. A geopolitical shock can create safe-haven demand for yen, but if the same shock keeps oil high, it also worsens Japan’s terms of trade. That makes JPY strength harder to sustain. In this cycle, yen bulls likely need oil to stop working against them.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What drives this scenario</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>Oil falls quickly on de-escalation, supply relief or weaker demand signals.</span></li> <li><span>US yields move lower as inflation fears ease or US data softens.</span></li> <li><span>BOJ signals that a near-term hike remains live, giving intervention macro support.</span></li> <li><span>Yen shorts begin to reduce exposure after failing to break sustainably above 160.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Market implication</span></strong></p> <p><span>A clean daily close below <strong>155–156</strong> would be the first sign that intervention is gaining traction. A break below the <strong>200-day moving average near 154.2</strong> would be more important and could open a move toward <strong>152</strong>, then <strong>150</strong>.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning framework</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>Below <strong>155</strong>, yen strength becomes more credible.</span></li> <li><span>Below <strong>154</strong>, the market may shift from viewing USD/JPY pullbacks as temporary to assessing whether rallies are becoming less durable.</span></li> <li><span>JPY upside could be assessed across pairs where the other currency is more exposed to risk sentiment or commodity prices, depending on the catalyst.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Key risk</span></strong></p> <p><span>If oil rebounds or BOJ disappoints, the yen rally could fade quickly and USD/JPY could return to the 157–160 zone.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Scenario 3: Markets test Tokyo again — USD/JPY breaks above 160</span></h2> <p><span>This is the <strong>intervention-failure scenario</strong>. If oil remains high, US yields stay firm, and the BOJ remains cautious, markets may test whether Japan is willing to keep spending reserves to defend the yen.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is that a break above 160 becomes less about technical momentum and more about policy credibility. Once traders believe intervention is only slowing the move rather than changing it, USD/JPY could grind higher again.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What drives this scenario</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>Oil remains elevated or rises further.</span></li> <li><span>Fed stays hawkish and US yields remain high.</span></li> <li><span>BOJ avoids stronger guidance on rate hikes.</span></li> <li><span>Japanese officials intervene verbally, but markets see limited follow-through.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Market implication</span></strong></p> <p><span>A sustained break above <strong>160</strong> could put <strong>161.95/162</strong> back in focus. But the higher USD/JPY goes, the more asymmetric the intervention risk becomes. The trade may work directionally, but the risk of sudden reversals also rises.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning framework</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>USD/JPY above <strong>160</strong> should be monitored with caution, as policy risk can move the pair sharply.</span></li> <li><span>For illustrative scenario planning, defined-risk structures may be worth assessing versus outright spot exposure in a high-intervention-risk zone.</span></li> <li><span>For investors, fresh USD/JPY exposure above <strong>160</strong> may require a clearly defined risk budget, given the risk of sudden policy-driven reversals.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Key risk</span></strong></p> <p><span>Coordinated or repeated intervention, softer US data, or a sudden oil reversal could quickly push USD/JPY back below 158 and squeeze late longs.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Final thoughts</span></strong></h2> <p><strong><span>The intervention has changed the tactical map, but not yet the macro story.</span></strong><span> USD/JPY above 160 is now politically uncomfortable, but a sustained move lower needs at least one of three things: lower US yields, a more hawkish BOJ, or repeated intervention that forces yen shorts to reduce risk.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Intervention creates a ceiling. Oil decides whether the yen can build a floor.</span></strong></p> <p><span>As long as oil remains high, Japan’s import burden and global inflation risks make durable JPY upside difficult. A short-term yen squeeze is possible, especially if officials step in again, but a sustained reversal likely needs oil to fall, US yields to soften, or the BOJ to turn more forceful.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Near-term playbook</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Above 159–160:</span></strong><span> risk-reward becomes less attractive for fresh USD/JPY upside exposure, as intervention risk rises sharply.</span></li> <li><strong><span>155–156:</span></strong><span> key support and near-term trendline area; holding this zone keeps USD/JPY range-bound.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Below 155:</span></strong><span> first sign that intervention is gaining traction.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Below 154:</span></strong><span> more meaningful technical break; could open 152/150 if oil and yields cooperate.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Summary</span></strong></p> <p><span>Friday’s intervention has made USD/JPY a two-way market again, but not yet a yen bull market. The pair may stay capped near 160, but durable JPY strength probably needs quick oil downside and softer US yields. Until then, the more balanced approach is to monitor extremes rather than assume a clean directional trend.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 5 May, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 05 May 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p> </p> <p><span ><strong>K</strong></span><span ><strong>ey points:</strong></span><span ></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US and Iran launch attacks in Strait of Hormuz</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Stocks fell on attacks; Palantir reported fastest growth since 2020</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>JPY weakens near 157 against USD despite intervention and bullish options</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent crude surged 5.8% to $114.44, the highest close since June 2022</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>30-year Treasury yield hit 5.03%, highest since July</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining a four-week ceasefire. US forces said they repelled Iranian attacks while escorting two US-flagged ships, and the UAE reported intercepting missiles and a fire at its Fujairah oil terminal. Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US–Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices.</span></li> <li><span>Australia’s services PMI was revised up to 50.7 in April from 50.3 and 46.3 in March, signaling modest growth. Activity and jobs increased, but domestic demand and new orders fell amid higher fuel costs from the Middle East war. Export orders recovered slightly. Input costs and selling prices rose at their fastest pace since 2022 and early 2023 respectively, while business sentiment stayed muted.</span></li> <li><span>US factory orders rose 1.5% m/m in March 2026, beating the 0.5% forecast after a 0.3% gain in February. Durable orders were up 0.8%, led by a 3.6% jump in computers and electronics on strong AI and data-center demand, and higher transport equipment. Nondurable orders rose 2.1%, the highest since October 2022. Orders ex-transport were up 1.6%, ex-defense 0.9%.</span><strong ></strong></li> </ul> <p><strong >Equities: </strong></p> <p><span> </span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US</span></strong><span>: The S&P 500 retreated 0.4% to 7,200.8 from record highs as oil prices jumped amid renewed US-Iran tensions. The Nasdaq fell 0.2% to 25,067.8, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.1% to 48,941.9. All sectors except energy were in the red, led by materials. <strong>eBay shares gained 5.6% after GameStop announced a surprise $56 billion takeover bid</strong> for the online auction company, while <strong>GameStop shares declined 7.5%</strong>. Apple contributed the most to the S&P 500 decline, decreasing 1.2%, while United Parcel Service had the largest drop, falling 10.5%. In after-hours trading, Advanced Energy shares fell 9.1% after reporting first-quarter results. <strong>Palantir fell 2.7% even after raising FY revenue outlook to $7.65b-$7.66b (vs $7.19b prior) while revenue grew 85%, fastest since 2020</strong>. Grab holdings+2% after beatingQ1 earnings with revenue growing 24% while maintaining sales outlook for 2026. <strong>Pinterest rose 15% after raising Q2 sales outlook and growing 18% in Q1.</strong></span></li> <li><span><strong></strong></span><strong >EU</strong><span >: European stocks fell as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices and President Trump's higher tariffs on car imports from the region weighed on auto stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1% to 605.51, its biggest loss since April 7. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped 2% to 5,763.61, its largest one-day percentage decline since March 20. Germany's DAX fell 1.2% to 23,991.27, while the Swiss Market Index declined 1% to 13,003.33. <strong>ASML contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 decline, decreasing 2.9%</strong>, while CSG had the largest drop, falling 13.1%. Trading was more muted than usual, with the London Stock Exchange closed for the early May bank holiday.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia</strong><span >: Asian stocks rallied to record highs led by technology shares, <strong>with South Korea's Kospi surging 5.1% to 6,936.99, hitting a fresh all-time high as semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics rose 5.4% and SK Hynix jumped 12.5%. </strong>Taiwan's TWSE Index rose 4.6% to a new record high, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which closed 6.6% higher, notching its largest gain in more than a year. Hong Kong stocks also finished in the green, while markets in Japan, mainland China, and Thailand remained closed for holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.3%, the most since April 8, before paring some gains.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Tuesday</span></strong><span>: HSBC, Westpac, AMD, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, Lumentum, Strategy</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wednesday</span></strong><span>: Arm, Disney, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Lyft, Coherent</span></li> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> UOB, Block, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Expedia, McDonald, Cloudflare, Coinbase, IREN</span></li> <li><strong><span>Friday</span></strong><span>: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> gained against all major currencies except the Norwegian krone after US–Iran clashes in the Persian Gulf, which also drew in the UAE and briefly pushed Brent crude above $115. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, though it later pared gains; earlier, it had weakened on Trump’s comments about “very positive” talks with Iran.</span></li> <li><strong><span>JPY</span></strong><span> weakened to about 157.15 against USD despite ongoing speculation about Japanese intervention, even as options markets turned increasingly bullish on the currency. </span></li> <li><strong><span>EUR </span></strong><span>fell to $1.1692 while <strong>EURGBP</strong> edged higher, with an ECB survey showing inflation near 2.7% this year before easing toward target and officials warning of rising recession risks from Middle East supply disruptions.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUD</span></strong></span><span> and <strong>NZD </strong>reversed earlier gains, <strong>AUDUSD</strong> fell 0.5% to 0.7168 and <strong>NZDUSD</strong> dropped 0.5% to 0.5872. RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee member Prasanna Gai said supply shocks such as those in the Strait of Hormuz tend to push up the neutral interest rate.</span></li> </ul> <p> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> </p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> jumped 5.8% to close at $114.44 a barrel, the highest close for the most-traded futures contract since June 2022, while WTI crude rose 3.1% to $105.12 after Iran struck a United Arab Emirates oil port and several ships.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>futures fell 2.4% to $4,519.50 an ounce, now down 15% from January highs, as the swift reassessment of the US monetary outlook points to dimming prospects for precious metals despite lingering Iran uncertainty.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Silver </span></strong><span>futures fell 3.8% to $73.07 an ounce, paring gains for the year to date to around 4%, as firmer real yields and a stronger dollar weighed on precious metals.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasury yields</span></strong><span> rose across the curve by at least five basis points, with the 30-year yield climbing as high as 5.03%, the highest since July, as traders boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will have to reverse course and raise interest rates to curb inflation following a surge in oil prices.</span></li> <li><span>Two-year yields, the most sensitive to shifting expectations for Fed policy, climbed as much as 11 basis points to 3.96%, rising nearly 10 basis points last week.</span></li> <li><span>SOFR futures sold off with the March and June 2027 contracts underperforming on heavy volumes as a rate hike premium started to aggressively price into next year.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /> <p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saxo Market Compass - 4 May 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 04 May 2026 16:49:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 4 May 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Markets navigated a dense mix of earnings, central bank decisions, and geopolitical tension, with oil acting as the dominant macro driver throughout the week.</em></p> <p>US equities oscillated early before finishing the week firmly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,230 by 1 May, as strong Big Tech earnings – led by Alphabet’s 10% surge – offset macro headwinds from surging oil prices and Meta’s capex-driven 8.6% decline. The VIX moved between 16.99 and 18.81, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions, while options flow shifted from early-week defensive positioning toward selective accumulation across energy, metals, and individual earnings names.</p> <p>By week’s end, sentiment stabilised as earnings delivered and oil briefly eased, but underlying uncertainty remains tied to energy markets and policy direction.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <p><em>Earnings resilience offsets macro noise, but leadership remains narrow.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US – earnings resilience offsets macro noise:</strong> US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong, with the S&P 500 moving from 7,138 (28 April) to 7,209 (30 April) and 7,230 (1 May). Big Tech dominated: Alphabet surged 10.0% (30 April) on cloud strength, while Meta dropped 8.6% (30 April) on capex concerns. Nvidia’s earlier record high (27 April) highlighted continued AI momentum, though sentiment briefly softened mid-week.</li> <li><strong>Europe & Asia – energy pressure vs selective strength:</strong> European equities struggled mid-week as oil surged and rate-hike expectations resurfaced, before rebounding into month-end. Local markets showed dispersion, with healthcare and industrials mixed, while Asia remained led by Korea’s AI-driven rally and more uneven performance in China and Japan.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Earnings remain supportive, but leadership is narrow and sensitive to macro inputs.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – equities</h4> <p>Focus shifts from Big Tech to consumer-facing earnings and macro validation. US earnings from Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will test demand resilience, while the US jobs report will determine whether strong growth can sustain current equity levels.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><em>Event risk priced, but not feared.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>VIX range – controlled conditions:</strong> Volatility remained contained despite heavy catalysts. The VIX moved between 18.02 (27 April), 17.83 (28 April), and peaked at 18.81 (29 April) before easing to 16.99 (1 May). Short-term measures spiked around key events but quickly normalised, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions.</li> <li><strong>Implied moves and skew:</strong> Options pricing implied weekly moves around ±1.0–1.35%, while skew shifted between neutral and defensive, ending the week with a downside bias.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Volatility is stable, but hedging demand remains persistent.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – volatility</h4> <p>The April US jobs report and ongoing oil developments are the next volatility catalysts. Any upside surprise in inflation or labour strength could push implied volatility higher again, particularly in short-dated options.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Selective upside returns, but hedging remains embedded.</em></p> <p>The options market shifted from early-week protection toward more selective accumulation, though conviction never fully broadened. Initial positioning was defensive, with index hedging and sector-level protection dominating, particularly in financials and metals.</p> <p>That stance evolved into a more balanced setup, with investors expressing views through income strategies, volatility trades, and paired hedges. Energy and metals both transitioned toward cautiously bullish positioning, while equities showed selective upside participation alongside continued protection.</p> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Investors leaned into upside selectively, but maintained protection as conviction remained narrow.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – options sentiment</h4> <p>Options flow will likely remain dispersion-driven, with investors targeting individual earnings names rather than broad index exposure. Watch for increased short-dated activity around consumer earnings and macro releases.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital assets</strong></h2> <p><em>Stable price action, selective institutional flows.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum:</strong> Crypto markets tracked macro sentiment but showed resilience. Bitcoin traded between USD 75,700 and USD 80,000, while Ethereum held near USD 2,200–2,380. ETF flows were mixed mid-week before turning positive into Friday, reflecting improving sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Options and altcoins:</strong> Options activity remained balanced, combining downside hedging with selective upside positioning, while altcoins followed broader risk trends.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Crypto is constructive, but still dependent on macro direction and liquidity.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – digital assets</h4> <p>ETF flows and macro data will remain key drivers. A stable or softer rates outlook could support further upside, while renewed volatility in equities or yields may quickly feed into crypto positioning.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed income</strong></h2> <p><em>Yields rise on oil, then stabilise.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries:</strong> Bond markets reflected the week’s macro tension. US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.43% mid-week on oil-driven inflation concerns, while the 2-year approached 3.95%. By Friday, yields eased slightly as oil corrected and policy expectations stabilised.</li> <li><strong>European bonds:</strong> European yields followed a similar pattern, rising sharply before pulling back into month-end.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Rates are increasingly driven by energy-linked inflation rather than growth expectations.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – fixed income</h4> <p>The US jobs report and Treasury issuance will shape rate expectations. Strong data could reinforce higher-for-longer narratives, while weaker prints may ease pressure on the front end.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <p><em>Oil dominates, reshaping the macro backdrop.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Oil – Strait of Hormuz driver:</strong> Oil remained the central driver, with Brent rising toward wartime highs before easing slightly. The Strait of Hormuz disruption tightened supply and drove inflation concerns across markets.</li> <li><strong>Gold and broader commodities:</strong> Gold initially weakened under rising yields but later stabilised as geopolitical risks intensified. Broader commodities posted strong gains in April, led by energy.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> Oil continues to dictate inflation expectations and cross-asset behaviour.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – commodities</h4> <p>Any progress on reopening shipping routes will be the key swing factor. A resolution could trigger a sharp pullback in oil and ease inflation fears, while continued disruption would keep upward pressure on prices.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <p><em>Yen volatility and USD strength define the week.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>USDJPY – intervention risk:</strong> FX markets were dominated by yen volatility and a firm US dollar. USDJPY surged above 160 before dropping sharply below 156 on intervention threats, highlighting extreme positioning.</li> <li><strong>USD and commodity currencies:</strong> The dollar strengthened mid-week on yields and oil before stabilising, while commodity-linked currencies remained supported.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Market pulse:</strong> FX is highly reactive to policy divergence and energy dynamics.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Looking ahead – currencies</h4> <p>Yen intervention risk remains elevated, while US data will guide USD direction. Commodity currencies will continue to track oil, making energy markets a key FX driver.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> Earnings support holds, but leadership remains narrow.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Contained, with persistent demand for hedging.</li> <li><strong>Options:</strong> Selective upside with protection still embedded.</li> <li><strong>Digital assets:</strong> Stable, supported by ETF flows and macro tone.</li> <li><strong>Fixed income:</strong> Yields driven by oil and inflation expectations.</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil remains the dominant macro force.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> Yen volatility and USD direction in focus.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Looking ahead – week of 4 to 8 May 2026</strong></h2> <p>The coming week arrives with oil still elevated, yen intervention risk unresolved, and equities trading near recent highs on the back of narrow earnings-driven leadership. Macro conditions remain fragile beneath the surface, and the data calendar is dense enough to test whether the current equity resilience is justified.</p> <p>Consumer-facing earnings take centre stage. Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will collectively test whether demand at the consumer level is holding, or beginning to soften under the weight of elevated energy prices and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the April US jobs report represents the defining macro input of the week – a strong reading would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure the front end of the Treasury curve, while any softness could ease rate anxiety and support risk assets broadly.</p> <p>Oil remains the wild card. Any signal of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes could trigger a sharp reversal in crude, easing inflation fears across fixed income and FX simultaneously. Conversely, continued disruption keeps cross-asset volatility elevated and hedging demand intact.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> Mon 4 May – Strait of Hormuz supply developments; options flow into consumer earnings week begins<br /> Tue 5 May – Airbnb Q1 2026 earnings (after close)<br /> Wed 6 May – Walt Disney Q2 2026 earnings (after close); US Treasury auction<br /> Thu 7 May – McDonald’s Q1 2026 earnings; US weekly jobless claims<br /> Fri 8 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary) </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Concluding remarks</strong></h2> <p>Markets ended the week resilient, supported by earnings and selective risk-taking, but underlying conditions remain fragile. Oil-driven inflation, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical risk continue to shape cross-asset behaviour.</p> <p>The coming week’s labour and consumer data will be critical in determining whether markets can extend gains or face renewed macro pressure.</p> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><hr /> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em> <p> </p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><strong>The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence</strong>. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <p><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---27-april-2026-27042026" data-id="CE1A5B395C7B4B97B52389A667D495BE" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 27 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---20-april-2026-20042026" data-id="FACE8A0ACDFB4687884796240BBBD19D" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 20 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---13-april-2026-14042026" data-id="535D89B8B0CA4EFC9425001EB6A5B315" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7b75863BC9-CB56-4539-999B-26E7A8A9EE95%7d%40en-SG" data-id="75863BC9CB564539999B26E7A8A9EE95" data-type="Article">Saxo Market Compass - 7 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---23-march-2026-23032026" data-id="5DD5AF409C1C460F8A1189D68E404569" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 23 March 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---16-march-2026-16032026" data-id="93B2B427289C4FDAB6D7602398F57896" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/saxo-market-compass---9-march-2026-09032026" data-id="9B2D40CD646443F2913EAAEC8E4B9693" data-type="VideoArticle">Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026</a></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>ETF</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>