Front vol empties, correlation cracks - Options Brief - 18 September 2026</h1> <article> <h1>Front vol empties, correlation cracks - Options Brief - 18 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The premium paid for this week’s decision came out of the volatility curve overnight, almost all of it at the front. The question is why the index went quiet while the names inside it did not.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The premium the market had been paying for this week’s decision came out of the volatility curve yesterday, and almost all of it came out of the front. The reason is the more interesting part. The index went quiet because its components stopped moving together, not because they calmed down.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 15.44 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.70) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.92</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The whole move sat in the front of the curve.</strong> VIX1D fell <strong>22.87%</strong> to <strong>13.12</strong> and VIX9D <strong>23.05%</strong> to <strong>13.39</strong>, against <strong>1.59%</strong> at one year. The front-month VIX future reads <strong>17.92</strong>, a premium of <strong>2.48</strong> points to spot where yesterday it was <strong>0.79</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Correlation did the work, not calm.</strong> COR3M dropped <strong>11.40%</strong> to <strong>11.58</strong> while dispersion went the other way, DSPX up <strong>2.88%</strong> to <strong>32.91</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Today’s expiry is priced under the clock.</strong> Yesterday the same expiry carried <strong>1.07%</strong> with two sessions to run. Flat volatility and time decay alone would have left roughly <strong>0.76%</strong>. The market is charging <strong>0.56%</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market priced for this week around Friday’s close, and how much of it the first four sessions used.</p> <p><em>Expected move to today’s expiry, drawn around the Friday 11 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. The VIX row keeps the 16 September expiry the week was framed on, which settled at Wednesday’s decision. Read from the option chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity, not a forecast.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>The index came all the way back.</strong> On Wednesday the S&P 500 had spent <strong>103%</strong> of the <strong>101.65 point</strong> range priced around Friday’s close, to the downside. One session later it sits <strong>19%</strong> through it. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>15%</strong>, upward, gold <strong>4%</strong>, the bitcoin fund <strong>27%</strong> and the energy fund <strong>36%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Volatility made the same round trip.</strong> The VIX had covered <strong>167%</strong> of its <strong>1.12 point</strong> priced move on Wednesday and now sits <strong>36%</strong> through it, below where the week began. In our view a week that breached its range at midweek and ends inside it on all six markets may say more about the event being removed than about anything being resolved. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>US equities rebounded on Thursday as crude and Treasury yields both eased, with semiconductors leading after Nvidia’s chief executive said chip sales volumes could double next year.</p> <p>Overnight the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate <strong>25 basis points</strong> to <strong>1.25%</strong>, but the <strong>7 to 2</strong> vote and a statement short on urgency sent the yen sharply lower. More in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">macro coverage</a> and today’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chips-lead-a-rebound-as-treasury-yields-retreat---18-september-2026-18092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Thursday 17 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,637.76</strong>, up <strong>1.14%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,446.98</strong>, up <strong>1.73%</strong>. Dow <strong>51,778.04</strong>, up <strong>0.61%</strong>. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained about <strong>3%</strong>, Nvidia <strong>2.5%</strong> and Micron more than <strong>5%</strong> after Intel’s chief executive said memory demand was not slowing. Coinbase rose <strong>5.8%</strong> after regulators opened a path for tokenised US equities.</li> <li><strong>Europe (Thursday 17 September close):</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.9%</strong>, the DAX <strong>0.7%</strong>, the CAC 40 <strong>0.6%</strong> and the FTSE 100 <strong>1.2%</strong>, with mining and autos leading. ASML added <strong>1.6%</strong> and Allegro jumped <strong>9.5%</strong> on raised 2026 guidance, while Raiffeisen Bank fell <strong>6.0%</strong> after a short seller disclosed a position.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Friday 18 September session, in progress):</strong> the Nikkei 225 traded about <strong>1.8%</strong> higher and the Kospi <strong>2.6%</strong>, with the Hang Seng up <strong>0.7%</strong>. Samsung Electronics gained around <strong>3%</strong> and SK Hynix close to <strong>6%</strong> on the memory outlook.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent has extended its pullback below <strong>USD 104</strong>, a third straight decline as the Saudi pipeline outage looks shorter than feared. Gold trades near <strong>USD 4,360</strong>, back above the post-decision low near <strong>USD 4,240</strong>. The US 10-year yield is <strong>4.94%</strong> after falling about nine basis points on Thursday, and the 2-year sits below <strong>4.69%</strong>. EURUSD <strong>1.1490</strong>, USDJPY <strong>157.01</strong> before the Bank of Japan pushed it higher.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Transitioning, VIX <strong>15.44</strong>, with the S&P 500 sitting on its 50-day moving average, <strong>0.30%</strong> above it, and 20-day realised volatility at <strong>9.6%</strong>, falling.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 18 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 17 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> put premium dominated every tape, <strong>84.5%</strong> of confirmed-opening premium in the mega-caps and <strong>77.3%</strong> in semiconductors, and almost none of it is readable as direction. The large lines were struck deep in the money, printed at the mid on multi-leg tickets, and expire at today’s settlement, which is the signature of exposure being transferred rather than protection being bought. The few lines with a clean bought side were small and pointed the other way, notably Micron calls sitting on its 30 September report.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> the same shape held across every complex, <strong>91.5%</strong> puts in rate funds and <strong>97.5%</strong> in the defensive sector funds, deep in the money and expiring the next session in each case. On the eve of a quadruple witching, a tape that is nine-tenths puts is describing its own plumbing. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface - 18 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>15.44</strong>, down <strong>12.82%</strong>, giving back the whole post-decision rise and more.</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>13.12</strong>, down <strong>22.87%</strong>, the largest fall anywhere on the board.</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>13.39</strong>, down <strong>23.05%</strong>.</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.55</strong> · VIX6M <strong>20.30</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>21.72</strong>, contango intact and considerably steeper, with the VIX3M to VIX ratio at <strong>1.20</strong>, up <strong>7.83%</strong>.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month <strong>17.92</strong>, the October contract, confirmed by put-call parity on that expiry at <strong>17.985</strong>. The reading is an early Friday quote against a Thursday cash close, so it is stated as a level rather than as a session change.</li> <li>Second-month <strong>18.62</strong>, front-to-second ratio <strong>0.960</strong>, curve in contango.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>145.70</strong>, down <strong>0.25</strong> points, effectively unmoved through a <strong>12.82%</strong> fall in the 30-day measure.</li> <li>COR3M <strong>11.58</strong>, down <strong>11.40%</strong>, the largest percentage fall outside the front of the curve.</li> <li>DSPX <strong>32.91</strong>, up <strong>2.88%</strong>.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>87.72</strong> · MOVE <strong>76.22</strong>, the latter down <strong>5.59%</strong>.</li> <li>VXN <strong>19.96</strong>, down <strong>11.05%</strong>, leaving the VXN to VIX ratio at <strong>1.29</strong>.</li> <li>GVZ <strong>24.98</strong>, down <strong>5.91%</strong>, on a session where oil volatility fell <strong>9.36%</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 18 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility - where implied volatility sits against its own year</strong></h2> <p>Saxo’s implied-volatility rank across <strong>149</strong> US and <strong>330</strong> euro-zone option underlyings. A rank of <strong>0</strong> is a one-year low, <strong>100</strong> a one-year high.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Premium is cheap almost everywhere, cheapest on the index itself.</strong> The typical US name ranks <strong>31</strong>, only about <strong>one in nine</strong> above <strong>50</strong>, and more than <strong>one in five</strong> sits near its one-year low. Europe reads the same at <strong>32</strong>. The index group is the cheapest corner of the list at a median rank of <strong>15</strong>, the correlation story told from the other side.</li> <li><strong>Where rank is elevated it is defensives and energy, not technology.</strong> Accenture ranks <strong>80</strong>, Johnson & Johnson <strong>75</strong>, Nike <strong>69</strong> and Exxon <strong>59</strong>, energy the richest sector at <strong>56</strong>. Nvidia ranks <strong>2</strong> and Broadcom <strong>3</strong>, the cheapest on the list, on the session semiconductors led.</li> <li><strong>A high rank does not always mean expensive.</strong> Rank measures distance from the year’s extremes, not how many days looked like today. Fuchs ranks <strong>63</strong> in Europe, yet implied volatility has been higher on only about <strong>one day in ten</strong>: a single spike set the high. The 7-to-10-year Treasury fund is the mirror image: rank <strong>23</strong>, on a level exceeded on about <strong>seven days in ten</strong>. Named funds are market context only. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.<br /> <br /> <em>Data source: Saxo, as of 18 September 2026, reflecting the 17 September close. Day counts are Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility percentile. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></li> </ul> <em>How to read IV rank and IV percentile together. Illustrative and for educational purposes only; not predictive. Source: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/finding-unusually-expensive-or-cheap-options-in-the-saxo-screener-18092026" data-id="B1C6A219A03F4ABCB94EDE297B17D955" data-type="Article">Finding unusually expensive or cheap options in the Saxo screener</a><br /> </em><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied move.</strong> SPX options price a <strong>0.56%</strong> move to tonight’s quarterly settlement, about <strong>43 points</strong>, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than from any forecast. The only scheduled US release inside a session that runs to the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> cash close is August industrial production at <strong>15:15 CET</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range.</strong> Yesterday this same expiry priced <strong>1.07%</strong>, roughly <strong>81 points</strong>, with two sessions left. Flat volatility and one fewer session would have left about <strong>0.76%</strong>. At <strong>0.56%</strong> the market has taken out roughly a quarter of the range on top of what the clock explains, which is a fall in implied volatility rather than decay. Next Friday’s expiry prices <strong>1.34%</strong>, about <strong>102 points</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong> SKEW held at <strong>145.70</strong> through a <strong>12.82%</strong> fall in the 30-day measure, so the crash bid took no part in the unwind. In our view that may point to hedges being carried through the expiry rather than sold into the calm, leaving the surface cheaper at the money without being cheaper in the tail.</li> <li><strong>Correlation and dispersion read.</strong> COR3M fell <strong>11.40%</strong> while DSPX rose <strong>2.88%</strong>, and the rank data puts index options near their one-year low against a typical single name at <strong>31</strong>. In our assessment the index may have gone quiet because its components stopped agreeing rather than because any of them stopped moving.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>UK August retail sales were released at <strong>08:00 CET</strong>. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference follows this morning’s increase to <strong>1.25%</strong>, and US August industrial production lands at <strong>15:15 CET</strong>.</p> <p>Today is the September quarterly expiry, settling at the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> cash close. Next week brings Autozone, Cintas, Paychex, Costco and H&M. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>The event has been removed and the curve is steeper than before the week started, with the front of the cash measures back near the year’s lows and the futures curve barely moved.</p> <p>In our view the more useful signal sits underneath that, in a correlation measure that fell hard while dispersion rose: index volatility can be cheap while the names inside it are not, and a quadruple witching is a poor session on which to test which is right.</p> <p>What today mostly resolves is plumbing. The deep in-the-money book that made yesterday’s tape look nine-tenths bearish clears at the close, and next week opens with a Friday expiry already priced at <strong>1.34%</strong>. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/rate-vol-clears-equity-vol-doesnt---options-brief---17-september-2026-17092026" data-id="8BA89B3165D34E90902BA239D540BA90" data-type="Article">Rate vol clears equity vol doesnt - Options Brief - 17 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="#" data-id="8AFE60B682DC4D23914ECE6A9A882627" data-type="Article">Fed day prices like a month - Options Brief - 16 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-break-software-catches---options-brief---15-september-2026-15092026" data-id="8FE532D68FBC4F5D992EBBCB71FFE838" data-type="Article">Chips break software catches - Options Brief - 15 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/vol-collapses-skew-climbs---options-brief---14-september-2026-14092026" data-id="27360F37E44E438FAE63E165E09E46CD" data-type="Article">Vol collapses skew climbs - Options Brief - 14 September 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chips-lead-a-rebound-as-treasury-yields-retreat---18-september-2026-18092026" data-id="CF099EEE39CF45DAA61302DB9939026B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chips lead a rebound as Treasury yields retreat - 18 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---first-fed-hike-since-2023-lifts-the-dollar---17-september-2026-17092026" data-id="A6BC9F27EF7D4B05AF17E023256B96B3" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - First Fed hike since 2023 lifts the dollar - 17 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Not the BoJ result the JPY bulls were looking for.</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 09:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">JPY crosses squeeze higher after split decision.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/not-the-boj-result-the-jpy-bulls-were-looking-for/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>John's <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-boj-disappoints-jpy-bulls-18092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">latest The FX Trader piece</a></span> looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals.</li> <li>The Real Eisman Playbook podcast <span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYD6kWTygho&list=PLcPAcykiNSdxLZMxxZzk00PzNGUzvrv-L&index=2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown"</a></span>. </li> <li>And <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8475dc9b-b2d4-4e10-a6b6-12796b11758a" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram</a></span> showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected.</li> </ul> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>France has a new market king, and it sells mascara</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>L’Oréal has overtaken LVMH as France’s most valuable listed company,</strong> reflecting a wider shift in consumer spending.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Beauty benefits from smaller price tags and repeat purchases</strong>, while expensive handbags are easier to postpone.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Luxury is not one trade.</strong> Brand strength, customer mix and product category increasingly determine who holds up best.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>On 15 September, L’Oréal overtook LVMH to become France’s most valuable listed company. L’Oréal was worth around 203 billion EUR, versus roughly 201 billion EUR for LVMH.</span></p> <p><span>That is quite a change of wardrobe.</span></p> <p><span>LVMH owns Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany and dozens of other luxury brands. Only a few years ago, it was Europe’s most valuable company. Now a cosmetics group has taken the French crown.</span></p> <p><span>The reason can partly be explained by an old idea with a memorable name: the lipstick effect.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>When the handbag can wait</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The lipstick effect describes a simple consumer behaviour. When economic confidence weakens, people do not necessarily stop treating themselves. They simply choose smaller treats. </span><span >A 50 EUR lipstick or 150 EUR perfume is easier to justify than a handbag costing several thousand euros.</span></p> <p><span>This matters because the luxury slowdown is increasingly hitting the industry’s aspirational customer. These are relatively wealthy consumers, but not wealthy enough to ignore inflation, higher borrowing costs or falling property values.</span></p> <p><span>China illustrates the shift particularly well. Prestige skincare, makeup and perfume are gaining share of spending, while demand for expensive leather goods remains much softer.</span></p> <p><span>L’Oréal sits in a useful middle ground. It owns mass-market beauty brands, but also premium names including Lancôme and Yves Saint Laurent Beauty. Its Luxe division grew 5.1% in the first half of 2026, with double-digit growth in China. </span><span >Beauty is still luxury. It just comes in a smaller box.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>A Birkin cannot protect a share price</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The weakness is broader than LVMH.</span></p> <p><span>Hermès arguably has one of the strongest luxury brands in the world. Its Birkin bags remain famously difficult to buy and can cost as much as a small car. The shares, however, are now down roughly 50% from their peak.</span></p> <p><span>The businesses themselves are not collapsing. LVMH’s organic revenue still grew 2% in the first half, while Fashion and Leather Goods returned to slight growth in the second quarter.</span></p> <p><span>The market is instead questioning how quickly luxury can return to its old growth rates, especially after years of aggressive price increases. </span><span >That distinction matters. A wonderful brand can remain wonderful while its share price falls because investors previously expected too much.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The customer matters as much as the logo</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For investors, the luxury sector increasingly needs to be separated into different customer groups.</span></p> <p><span>Brands serving the very wealthy may prove more resilient because their customers are less sensitive to economic cycles. Jewellery can also behave differently from fashion. Beauty benefits from lower prices and frequent repeat purchases.</span></p> <p><span>The warning signs are straightforward: Chinese consumer confidence, luxury sales growth, price increases and whether aspirational buyers return. A stabilising Chinese property market would help. Continued weakness would keep pressure on companies relying heavily on discretionary middle-class spending.</span></p> <p><span>Beauty has risks too. Consumers can trade down, competition is intense, and L’Oréal’s stronger performance is already reflected in investor expectations.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Expensive does not always mean resilient</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Luxury investing used to look wonderfully simple: strong brands, wealthy customers, rising prices and attractive margins. The past three years have made that picture messier.</span></p> <p><span>The lipstick effect helps explain why.</span></p> <p><span>Consumers have not stopped wanting beautiful things. They are becoming more selective about which beautiful things justify the price. A fragrance can survive a nervous household budget more easily than a five-figure handbag.</span></p> <p><span>That is why L’Oréal overtaking LVMH matters beyond bragging rights in Paris. It shows that even within premium consumer spending, affordability and purchase frequency matter. The Birkin may remain difficult to obtain, but in today’s luxury market, scarcity alone is no longer enough to keep a share price looking expensive.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Luxury</span> <span>Luxury Goods</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: BoJ disappoints JPY bulls.</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 07:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A split decision on the BoJ rate hike weighs.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>The latest </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Bank of Japan hikes, but a split decision and seeming lack of urgency weigh</span></strong><strong><span>. </span></strong><span>The Bank of Japan did deliver the expected 25 basis point hike, but a 7-2 decision in favour of the hike raised eyebrows and the monetary policy statement delivered little sense of urgency even as it noted that underlying inflation was nearing 2%, that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations are rising and that price rises are being passed through from higher input costs and wages. The JPY sold off across the board immediately on the announcement and release of the new policy statement. There may have been some additional pent-up energy in the USDJPY reaction from the USD rally after the FOMC meeting, ironically even as US short-dated yields backed out much of the reaction to the meeting by late Thursday, in part as oil prices continued to retreat. Powerful risk on and the surge in US tech stocks may also be a JPY headwind. See more on USDJPY below. The squeeze in JPY crosses is on after the recent market repositioning, but I suspect the Bank of Japan (in cahoots with the Ministry of Finance) will draw a line in the sand well ahead of 160.00 – let’s see what the Ueda press conference and today’s/this week’s close brings.</span></p> <p><strong><em><span>Key takeaways and what to watch for from here</span></em></strong><em><span>: This update written as Bank of Japan governor Ueda is out speaking at the post-meeting press conference – as of this writing, the JPY is getting some traction again as he is saying that decisions are meeting-by-meeting, with no set pace in mind, clearly wanting to preserve some optionality. Ueda needs to have an eye on the JPY level at this conference and draw enough of a rhetorical line in the sand to impress this market, otherwise the BoJ will have a fresh headache if USDJPY is pulling up to 160.00 again – still looking for resistance to come in somewhere before long even after this setback for the bullish JPY case – see chart comments below.</span></em></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: USDJPY <br /> </strong>USDJPY has backed up sharply on the combination of the USD rally after a more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting this week and now a less hawkish than expected decision on the BoJ hike. The next key resistance area as the JPY crosses squeeze higher is perhaps the 200-day moving average into 158.40 or so, which also coincides fairly well in the daily Ichimoku technical picture with the lagging span line (green) approaching the price bars from August and the cloud levels (shaded area just above the 200-day moving average also starting coming in near this level. Failing that, the focus will quickly shift to the psychological 160.00 area above.</p> </p></div></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Bank of England more dovish than anticipated. </span></strong>The Bank of England meeting was on the dovish side of expectations even as the bank said that rates may need to rise if the energy shock persists and leads to second round effects. But the odds of a November rate hike were set a bit lower with Bailey’s noncommittal language in the presser and the bank’s statement that there was “little evidence so far of material second-round effects”. As well, the BoE announced a more significant than expected overhaul of its QT programme as it announced a halt to all sales for six months and a complete stop of “long-dated” gilt sales, which in this case seems to mean part of its holdings of the 2049 gilt and then all gilts with later maturities. The benchmark 30-year gilt yield plunged 12 basis points on the news. Sterling sold off, but it was hardly a rout and lower global bond yields and less pressure on the UK gilt market are perhaps a modest net positive for the currency. There is quite the line in the sand now in EURGBP just above 0.8600 – the massive old range low that was taken out in July and since has served as resistance.</span></p> <p><strong><span>FOMC reaction largely erased.</span></strong><span> The FOMC meeting was rightly read as a hawkish one, with the Fed’s economic projections suggesting a Goldilocks combination of a slow path of core PCE disinflation (down to the 2.0% target by 2029, even if the 2028 projection was raised slightly) while unemployment would remain at current low levels for the next three years and growth would remain steady and even higher than originally anticipated for next year. And yet we have already erased most of the reaction to the meeting at the front end of the US treasury yield curve on a mere sell-off in the oil price, suggesting that the market is not convinced that there is more hawkishness to price into the forward curve. That is fair for now, given that we are already pricing two additional hikes by mid-next year beyond what the Fed itself is saying it will do (sans Warsh, who explicitly noted his lack of participation in the dot plot projections of Fed policy). The technical USD picture looks bullish here, but without a fresh yield impulse, will this move quickly fizzle out without fresh incoming data fuel? </span></p> <p><strong><span>Looking ahead<br /> </span></strong><span >Next Thursday we have three central bank meetings – the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank. Guidance is key from the Riksbank in particular after the recent sharp mark-down in the Swedish krona, which is beginning to look sufficiently large to trigger some unease at the bank. The market is not looking for a hike from the Riksbank until the November meeting. In the meantime, Norges Bank is expected to hike next week and even so, NOKSEK rally looks extraordinarily stretched without strong support from some new surge in crude oil prices. The SNB is an interesting one as well after the prior talk that the bank might hike until beyond 2027 to now angling for a hike as early as the March meeting. The franc is weak, but why would the SNB surprise hawkish when core CPI is still running at sub 0.5% YoY levels?</span></p> <p><span>Next week is a quiet one for incoming US data, with only preliminary S&P Global PMI’s on Wednesday the minor highlight. In the meantime, risk sentiment and oil prices could set the agenda across markets.</span></p> </span></p> <strong>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.</strong><br /> <span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>It is amazing how strong the JPY reading remains despite the tremendous backfilling we now have – reminds us of the size of the shock lower. But now the JPY will need to take a stand if it is to not rapidly lose all of its positive impulse from the rally. Elsewhere, interesting to note that the CNH continues to move stronger even against a strong US dollar – this is ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit and looks like a bit of a “flex”. The SEK weakness is looking excessive with the easing of yield pressures here and strong risk sentiment – an important week ahead with Riksbank next Thursday.</span></p> </span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>EURUSD and USDCAD have followed GBPUSD in trending in the US dollar’s favour in the last couple of days. The EURUSD move opens up the rest of the range lower to 1.1325, while GBPUSD would eye 1.3300, 1.3140 and then the massive 1.3000 level if it continues lower. Elsewhere, watching gold closely for the potential for a flip back to positive after it recovered so handily from the FOMC meeting inspired dip.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Chips lead a rebound as Treasury yields retreat - 18 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 05:58:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Hawkish FOMC reaction fades, less hawkish BoJ than expected early Friday. </li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities rebounded as oil and yields eased, Asia extended gains as Japan raised rates.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Equity and rates volatility unwound the post-Fed premium while the curve stayed in contango</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto-linked shares rebounded with equities as a House panel advanced the bitcoin reserve bill</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold trades higher as global yields and crude oil prices retreat.</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global yields retreat as crude oil prices ease. BoE shocks longest gilt yield lower with QT tweaks.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: JPY sharply lower after less hawkish than expected BoJ meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%</strong><strong> as expected, </strong><strong>but the decision was only approved by a 7-2 margin</strong> and the language in the monetary policy statement expressed less urgency on the need to tighten further than the market was perhaps expecting. While short-dated Japanese Government Bond yields were only about two basis points lower in the wake of the decision, the Japanese yen suffered a sharp sell-off.</li> <li><strong>The BoE kept rates at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote but warned they could rise if Middle East tensions stoke inflation</strong>. Governor Bailey said the energy shock’s impact is so far limited but prolonged volatility could increase inflation risks. The Bank of England announced more material changes to its QT than expected, pausing active gilt sales entirely for the next six months and stopping the sale of long-dated gilts entirely.</li> <li><strong>Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar to offset a key pipeline shutdown, cutting tankers’ exposure to Iranian attacks</strong>. It expects to restore about half of the East-West pipeline’s capacity within days and full flows in six weeks. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have risen to 2.7 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd in August.</li> <li><strong>Eurozone inflation</strong> rose to 3.2% in August 2026, near a 2½-year high and above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by a 14.3% jump in energy. Core inflation edged down to 2.4% and services inflation to 3.0%. Inflation picked up in Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, but eased slightly in the Netherlands.</li> <li><strong>Canada’s producer prices rose 1.3% m/m in August 2026, up from 0.3% in July and versus expectations for no change</strong>. Energy and petroleum prices gained 4%, led by refined products, while PPI excluding energy rose 0.8%. Non‑ferrous metals (+4.4%) and chemicals (+2.8%) also rebounded, boosted by unwrought precious metals and plastic resins.</li> <li><strong>US jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 </strong><strong>last week</strong>, near July’s 60‑year low and below the 208,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, the lowest since January 2024, highlighting labor market resilience. Federal employee claims edged up to 398 but remain historically low.</li> <li><strong>The US House passed a bipartisan bill imposing economic sanctions on Russia</strong> via tariffs in a 262-159 vote. The bill is expected to be signed by President Trump.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Aug. Retail Sales</li> <li>1315 – US Aug. Industrial Production</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Autozone</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cintas, Paychex</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Costco, H&M Hennes & Mauritz</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: US equities rebounded sharply Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.7% and Dow up 0.6%, as softer oil and lower Treasury yields eased inflation concerns after the Fed’s rate hike. Semiconductors led, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 3.1% and Nvidia gaining 2.5% after Jensen Huang said chip sales volumes could double next year, while Coinbase rose 5.8% after regulators opened a pathway for tokenised US equities. After hours, Nucor fell 3% and Steel Dynamics dropped 4.1% after both guided third-quarter earnings below expectations.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: European equities extended gains, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.9%, DAX 0.7%, CAC 40 0.6% and FTSE 100 1.2%, as oil retreated and bond yields stabilised after the Fed hike, while the Bank of England held rates. Mining and autos led the broader advance. ASML rose 1.6% as technology recovered from its earlier sell-off, while Allegro surged 9.5% after raising its 2026 forecasts. Man Group gained 6.4% following a UBS upgrade, whereas Raiffeisen Bank fell 6.0% after Grizzly Research disclosed a short position. Investors remain focused on oil and central-bank guidance.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities advanced Friday, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.8% and Kospi 2.6% as lower oil prices and bond yields extended Wall Street’s relief rally. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, although the yen weakened after the 7-2 vote signalled caution around further tightening. Samsung Electronics rose around 3% and SK Hynix almost 6% in early trade after Nvidia’s demand outlook revived memory-chip optimism. Huawei also accelerated its Ascend 960DT launch to early 2027, highlighting intensifying competition in Chinese artificial intelligence chips.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.44 | VIX FUTURES: 17.92 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.70) | MOVE: 76.22 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Thursday's chip-led rebound is the trigger. <strong>VIX fell 12.8% to 15.44</strong>, giving back its post-Fed rise, while VIX1D dropped 23% to 13.12 and VVIX fell 8% to 87.7. Rates volatility eased too, with <strong>MOVE down 5.6% to 76.2</strong>, and oil volatility fell more than 9%. </li> <li>The <strong>VIX cash curve stays in contango</strong> from 13.39 at nine days to 21.72 at one year, with the front future at 17.92 well above spot; SKEW is steady at 145.7. <strong>SPX options imply a 0.56% move to today's quarterly expiry and 1.34% to next Friday</strong>. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> </ul> <p>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~77,317 (+1.25%) | ETHEREUM ~2,476 (+1.25%) | IBIT 43.30 (+0.60%) | ETHA 18.47 (+1.76%) | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Digital assets firmed alongside the equity rebound, with crypto-linked shares recovering part of the week's losses: <strong>Coinbase rose 5.8%, Strategy 4.8% and Circle 5.8%</strong>, while miners advanced broadly, led by Riot at 7.5%. Spot bitcoin ETFs nonetheless recorded a <strong>$296 million net outflow on Wednesday</strong>, a third day of redemptions at IBIT.</li> <li>The <strong>House Financial Services Committee voted 28 to 21</strong> to advance a bill writing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law with a 20-year holding period, the furthest a reserve bill has travelled in Congress; it still needs a floor vote and Senate passage.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude has extended its pullback to below USD 104, falling for a third straight session</strong>, as fears of prolonged Saudi supply disruption continue to ease. Saudi Arabia is working to restore roughly half of the damaged East-West pipeline capacity while offering additional Asian cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, reducing the immediate risk of lost exports. The retreat comes despite continued severe disruption through Hormuz — preliminary Kpler data showed only four commodity vessels transiting the Strait on Thursday versus a recent ten-day average of around 16 — and renewed Saudi-Houthi fighting. Brent nevertheless remains roughly 15% higher this month, leaving a substantial geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.</li> <li><strong>Gold has pushed higher again to around USD 4,360, extending Thursday’s sharp rebound from the post-Fed low near USD 4,240</strong>. The recovery has been helped by a modest easing in Treasury yields and the pullback in oil, which reduces the urgency of further Fed tightening even after Warsh’s hawkish message this week. Gold’s resilience is notable given that the Fed has just begun a new hiking cycle and the dollar remains relatively firm, suggesting continued demand from investors less sensitive to the traditional rates-and-dollar relationship. After reclaiming USD 4,350, the next test is the recent USD 4,365–4,400 area, while USD 4,300 now becomes the first important support on a setback.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Trea</strong><strong>sury yields </strong><strong>fell all along the yield curve, likely in </strong><strong>part on a fresh drop in crude oil prices.</strong> The benchmark 2-year treasury yield backed out most of the reaction to the FOMC meeting late Wednesday, trading below 4.69% early Friday after peaking at 4.74% after the FOMC meeting and dropping as low as 4.66% Thursday. Long-dated treasuries saw strong buying interest Thursday as the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield strayed further away from the key 5.00% level, falling about nine basis points to close at 4.93% Thursday and near 4.94% early Friday.</li> <li><strong>J</strong><strong>apan government bonds </strong><strong>saw a choppy ride after the Bank of Japan </strong><strong>rate hike and release of the policy statement</strong>, which seems to have indicated less urgency to tighten policy further from here than the market seemed to be looking for, and the split 7-2 decision in favour of the hike raised eyebrows. JGB yields were very slightly lower at the front end of the yield curve after initially chopping lower and the picture was the same for longer-dated yields.</li> <li><strong>The UK’s longest dated gilts rallied sharply on the Bank of England’s overhaul of its quantitative tightening programme</strong>, which would halt sales of longer-term gilts (see more above). The benchmark 30-year Gilt yield fell twelve basis points to 5.74% after hitting a 28-year high of 5.95% just last week.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Japanese yen was pushed sharply lower in the wake of the Bank of Japan meeting</strong>, which did bring the expected 25 basis point rate hike but brought less urgency on the need to continue tightening policy than the market was looking for and a split 7-2 decision in favour of the policy hike. USDJPY squeezed above 157.20 from near 156.20 before the decision. The 200-day moving average looms above near 158.40 as the market awaits the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference. EURJPY squeezed above 180.50</li> <li><strong>Sterling traded on the</strong><strong> soft side even as the Bank of England signaled </strong><strong>Thursday </strong><strong>that it will have to tighten policy again</strong>, although market expectations were already pricing in a hike for the November 5 BoE meeting and the bank said that there was “little evidence so far of material second-round effects” and an overhaul of the bank’s QT programme</li> <li><strong>The broader US dollar picture </strong><strong>saw the greenback losing post-FOMC momentum</strong> Thursday as treasury yields at the front-end of the US yield curve reversed most of the reaction to the meeting, perhaps as oil prices retreated again Thursday. EURUSD backed almost to 1.1500 Thursday before settling into the 1.1475-1.1490 range. </li> <li><strong>AUDUSD </strong><strong>has entirely reversed the reaction to the hawkish FOMC meeting</strong>, trading as high as 0.7136 early Friday after the post-FOMC low of 0.7075.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 18 September, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 18 September 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>BoE holds rates at 3.75%; warns of hikes if inflation rises </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Chips lead equities with SMH up 3.1% </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >AUDUSD firms to 0.7120 on hawkish RBA expectations </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Oil drops further as Saudi restores pipeline </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >US yields break 8-day rise, down 9bps </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> <br /> <br /> </p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong><span>The BoE kept rates at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote but warned they could rise if Middle East tensions stoke inflation.</span></strong><span> Governor Bailey said the energy shock’s impact is so far limited but prolonged volatility could increase inflation risks.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong ><span>Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in August 2026</span></strong><span >, near a 2½-year high and above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by a 14.3% jump in energy. Core inflation edged down to 2.4% and services inflation to 3.0%. Inflation picked up in Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, but eased slightly in the Netherlands.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Canada’s producer prices rose 1.3% m/m in August 2026, up from 0.3% in July</span></strong><span > and versus expectations for no change. Energy and petroleum prices gained 4%, led by refined products, while PPI excluding energy rose 0.8%. Non</span><span >‑</span><span >ferrous metals (+4.4%) and chemicals (+2.8%) also rebounded, boosted by unwrought precious metals and plastic resins.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar to offset a key pipeline shutdown</span></strong><span >, cutting tankers’ exposure to Iranian attacks. It expects to restore about half of the East-West pipeline’s capacity within days and full flows in six weeks. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have risen to 2.7 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd in August.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>US jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in mid</span></strong><span >‑</span><strong ><span>September</span></strong><span >, near July’s 60</span><span >‑</span><span >year low and below the 208,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, the lowest since January 2024, highlighting labor market resilience. Federal employee claims edged up to 398 but remain historically low.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong ><span>The US House passed a bipartisan bill imposing economic</span></strong><span > sanctions on Russia via tariffs in a 262-159 vote. The bill is expected to be signed by President Trump.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US (Thursday close):</strong> US equities posted their best session in six weeks on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1% to 7,637.76, the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.7% to 29,447, and the Dow Jones gaining 0.6% to 51,778. <strong>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.1%, led by Nvidia (+~2.5%) after CEO Jensen Huang said the company expects to sell twice as many chips next year</strong>. Berkshire Hathaway was a notable laggard, weighing on financials. In after-hours trading, Steel Dynamics fell 3.4% and Nucor dropped 3.7% after both steel producers issued Q3 EPS guidance below consensus estimates. Intuit reported in-line Q1 revenue guidance of $4.29–4.31bn.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU (Thursday close):</strong><span > European equities advanced for a second consecutive session, buoyed by the Fed's inflation-fighting commitment and a pullback in oil. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 642.60, the DAX gained 0.7% to 25,717, the CAC 40 added 0.6% to 8,187, and the FTSE 100 climbed 1.2% to 10,816 after the BoE held rates. ASML led the Stoxx 600 higher, while Allegro.eu surged 9.5% to a 52-week high. Man Group rose as much as 6% after a UBS upgrade. Raiffeisen Bank was among the notable decliners. The OMX Stockholm 30 rose 1.3%, led by Swedbank (+2.6%) and Boliden (+3.3%).</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia (Friday open):</strong><span > Asian equities are tracking Wall Street's rally, supported by lower oil prices and cooling Treasury yields. The Kospi opened sharply higher, rising 2.5% to 6,886 at the open, driven by Korean memory chipmakers on the back of Nvidia's bullish chip demand outlook. The Nikkei 225 is trading around 64,136, with attention focused on the BOJ rate decision due later today — a 25bp hike to 1.25% is fully priced in, though markets are watching Governor Ueda's press conference for forward guidance. The Hang Seng closed Thursday at 24,604 (-0.4%), weighed by Tencent (-1.7%) and Laopu Gold (-3.0%), though mainland investors bought a net HK$3.36bn via Stock Connect for a ninth consecutive session. </span><strong >Huawei announced over 10 new AI chipsets at its annual summit in Shanghai, accelerating the launch of its Ascend 960DT chip to Q1 2027.</strong><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span > </span></p> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>The dollar stayed firm post<span>‑</span>Fed, keeping <strong>USDJPY elevated around 156.2</strong> (with Citi eyeing upside toward 159 if the BOJ disappoints), weighing on <strong>EURUSD near 1.148 amid weaker French OATs and political risk</strong>, and pushing <strong>GBPUSD down to 1.336 after leading G10 losses</strong> despite some short covering post<span>‑</span>BoE; in contrast, <strong>AUDUSD firmed to about 0.712 on hawkish RBA expectations</strong>, while <strong>USDCNH held steady around 6.70, supported by the PBOC fix</strong> and continued northbound Stock Connect inflows.<span></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>Oil fell for a third day, with <strong>Brent near $104.8/bbl and WTI around $101.2</strong>, as Saudi plans to restore about half of its East-West pipeline capacity and easing Middle East risks unwind the recent price premium. <strong>Gold jumped to about $4,346/oz</strong> after spiking to $4,380, helped by lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar post-Fed. Copper remains volatile as traders await a US decision on refined copper tariffs, keeping pressure on names like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern <strong>Copper after LME prices previously hit a record $14,617/ton</strong> on tariff bets.<span></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li>US Treasury yields snapped an eight-day rise Thursday, <strong>with the 10-year down about 9 bps to 4.93%, the 30-year at 5.29% and the 1-year at 4.38%</strong>, helped by weaker oil and the BoE’s hold boosting gilts and Treasuries. A $19bn 10-year TIPS auction tailed at 2.653%, the highest since 2008 and ~2 bps above WI, with softer indirect demand. A Bloomberg survey shows over 60% of respondents expect the 10-year above 5% by end-2026 (median 5.1%); KKR lifted its year-end target to 5.1%, and Jeffrey Gundlach warned a future US recession could spark a fiscal-driven surge in long yields.<span></span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to</span><span> </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.</span><strong><span> </span></strong><span> </span> </p> <p><em>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em> </p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Rate vol clears, equity vol doesn’t - Options Brief - 17 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The Federal Reserve hiked for the first time since 2023, and bond volatility promptly went quiet while equity volatility did the opposite. The question now is which of the two has it right.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the two halves of the volatility complex went opposite ways. Anything priced off the rate path calmed down once the answer was known. Equity volatility did not.</p> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.71 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.95) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.50</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Rate volatility compressed, equity volatility firmed.</strong> MOVE fell <strong>3.56%</strong> to <strong>80.73</strong> and Treasury fund volatility <strong>7.86%</strong>, while the VIX rose <strong>2.97%</strong> to <strong>17.71</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The firming sits behind the front, not at it.</strong> VIX1D eased <strong>0.76%</strong> to <strong>17.01</strong>, while the 30-day measure added <strong>0.51</strong> points, the largest gain anywhere on the cash curve.</li> <li><strong>The S&P 500 has spent its whole week in three sessions.</strong> It has travelled <strong>103%</strong> of the <strong>101.65 point</strong> range priced around Friday’s close, with two sessions and a quarterly expiry still to run.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market priced for this week around Friday’s close, and how much of it the first three sessions used.</p> <p><em>Expected move to the 18 September expiry, drawn around the Friday 11 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Volatility uses the 16 September expiry, the next one listed, which settled at yesterday’s decision. Read from the option chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity, not a forecast.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>The index has already left its band.</strong> The S&P 500 sits <strong>103%</strong> of the way through the range priced for the full week, to the downside, with two sessions left. The Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>77%</strong>, gold <strong>67%</strong>, the energy fund <strong>61%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>42%</strong>, all downward.</li> <li><strong>Volatility remains the widest miss.</strong> The VIX has covered <strong>167%</strong> of the <strong>1.12 point</strong> move the chain priced around Friday’s close. In our view a week that spends its equity range before its final two sessions, with the priced event already behind it, is adjusting through the rate path rather than the index level. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>The Federal Reserve raised the funds rate by <strong>25 basis points</strong> to <strong>3.75% to 4.00%</strong>, its first increase in three years, and most officials see at least one more before the year is out. Chair Kevin Warsh called the move a removal of accommodation and said he was hard pressed to describe conditions as restrictive.</p> <p>The front of the Treasury curve took the message: the 2-year yield rose seven basis points to close near <strong>4.74%</strong>, while the 10-year ended two basis points higher, just above <strong>5.00%</strong>. The dollar reached a seven-week high. More in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">macro coverage</a> and today’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---first-fed-hike-since-2023-lifts-the-dollar---17-september-2026-17092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Wednesday 16 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,551.81</strong>, down 0.45%. Nasdaq 100 <strong>28,945.06</strong>, up 0.02%. Dow <strong>51,461.90</strong>, down 1.21%. Financials led the decline with Huntington Bancshares off <strong>5.6%</strong>, and J.B. Hunt fell <strong>13.3%</strong> after warning that diesel costs would weigh on third-quarter profit. Data-centre names held up, Lumentum gaining <strong>9.6%</strong> and Coherent <strong>6.9%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe (Wednesday 16 September close):</strong> the Stoxx 600 rose <strong>0.5%</strong>, the DAX <strong>0.5%</strong> and the FTSE 100 <strong>0.3%</strong>, helped by softer oil before the decision. Barratt Redrow jumped <strong>11.7%</strong> on annual results, and Soitec gained <strong>13.4%</strong> on a broker upgrade.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Thursday 17 September session):</strong> the Nikkei 225 traded around <strong>0.3%</strong> higher and the Kospi <strong>0.6%</strong>, while the Hang Seng fell about <strong>0.8%</strong>. Samsung Electronics added <strong>0.6%</strong> and SK Hynix <strong>0.3%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent settled at <strong>USD 105.83</strong> and has slipped below <strong>USD 106</strong> this morning as Saudi Arabia moves to restore pipeline capacity. Gold trades near <strong>USD 4,305</strong> after a session that ran to <strong>USD 4,366</strong> and back to <strong>USD 4,240</strong>. The US 10-year yield is <strong>5.00%</strong> and the 2-year <strong>4.72%</strong>. EURUSD <strong>1.1460</strong>, USDJPY <strong>156.11</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Transitioning, VIX <strong>17.71</strong>, with the S&P 500 <strong>0.79%</strong> below its 50-day moving average and 20-day realised volatility at <strong>8.7%</strong>, falling.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 17 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 16 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> the mega-cap and semiconductor tapes both carried large confirmed-opening totals, and the largest lines on both were deep in the money. The call side skewed long dated, a stock-replacement profile rather than a directional bet, while the put side sat almost entirely in this Friday’s quarterly expiry, where it reads as settlement traffic. In our view the desk was extending horizon in the largest names while letting the near book roll off.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> the index complex carried the day’s size and split close to even, but its two biggest lines were the same deep in-the-money position rolled out of this week’s expiry into December rather than new protection. Gold saw financed upside bought. Energy funds ran as a premium-collection session, every explicitly flagged call sold to open. Rate funds leaned to calls, though the legs arrived paired and at mid, out past 2027. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface - 17 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>17.71</strong>, up <strong>2.97%</strong>, the largest single gain on the cash curve at <strong>0.51</strong> points.</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>17.01</strong>, down <strong>0.76%</strong>, easing after Tuesday’s spike rather than collapsing as a passed event usually leaves it.</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>17.40</strong>, up <strong>1.10%</strong>.</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>19.73</strong> · VIX6M <strong>21.03</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>22.07</strong>, contango intact from nine days out to one year.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month <strong>18.50</strong>, a premium of <strong>0.79</strong> points to spot. September settled at yesterday’s expiry, so the front month is now October, where put-call parity returns roughly <strong>18.77</strong> on this morning’s indicative quotes. No session comparison is drawn from the level.</li> <li>Second-month <strong>19.07</strong>, front-to-second ratio <strong>0.970</strong>, curve in contango.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>145.95</strong>, down <strong>0.66</strong> points, still in the elevated zone.</li> <li>COR3M <strong>13.07</strong>, up <strong>5.32%</strong>, the largest percentage move on the board.</li> <li>DSPX <strong>31.99</strong>, up <strong>0.57%</strong>.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>95.41</strong> · MOVE <strong>80.73</strong>, the latter down <strong>3.56%</strong>.</li> <li>VXN <strong>22.44</strong>, up <strong>0.81%</strong>, leaving the VXN to VIX ratio at <strong>1.27</strong>.</li> <li>GVZ <strong>26.55</strong>, down <strong>1.30%</strong> on a session that moved gold through a <strong>126 dollar</strong> range.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 17 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Single-name volatility - where implied volatility sits against its own year</strong></h2> <p>Saxo’s implied-volatility rank across <strong>193</strong> US and <strong>379</strong> euro-zone option underlyings, read this morning. A rank of <strong>0</strong> is a name’s one-year low, <strong>100</strong> its one-year high.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Premium is not broadly rich.</strong> The typical US name ranks <strong>38</strong>, closer to its low than its high, and fewer than <strong>one in five</strong> names rank above <strong>50</strong>. Europe is cheaper, with the typical name at <strong>34</strong> and one in five within a fifth of its one-year low. The cheap end is semiconductors, Nvidia at <strong>10</strong> and Broadcom at <strong>7</strong>, on the same tape where yesterday’s flow was extending horizon in the largest names.</li> <li><strong>Where it is elevated, it is an energy story, not a market story.</strong> Eight of the twenty highest US ranks are energy: Petrobras <strong>84</strong>, Diamondback <strong>78</strong>, Exxon and Chevron <strong>64</strong>, the energy sector fund <strong>66</strong>. In our view single-name premium is tracking Brent and the Saudi pipeline headlines, while the index measures above are not being pulled along.</li> <li><strong>A high rank does not always mean expensive.</strong> Rank measures distance from the year’s extremes, not how many days looked like today. Hyperliquid Strategies ranks <strong>83</strong>, yet its implied volatility has been higher than this on <strong>five days out of six</strong> this year: one spike set the high. The high-yield bond fund is the mirror image, a rank of <strong>39</strong> on a level the fund has exceeded on only <strong>one day in seven</strong>. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, as of 17 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET, reflecting the 16 September close. Day counts are Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility percentile. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Session implied move.</strong> SPX options price a <strong>0.77%</strong> move to tonight’s close, about <strong>58 points</strong>, with the Bank of England at <strong>13:00 CET</strong> and US jobless claims and housing starts at <strong>14:30 CET</strong> all landing inside a session that runs to the <strong>22:00 CET</strong> cash close. That is narrower than the <strong>0.80%</strong> the market charged for the decision itself.</li> <li><strong>Event implied range.</strong> Friday’s quarterly expiry prices <strong>1.07%</strong>, roughly <strong>81 points</strong>. Two sessions ago the same expiry priced <strong>1.29%</strong>, and one fewer session at unchanged volatility would have left about <strong>80</strong>. The market added nothing and took nothing out, after two consecutive nights of paying up.</li> <li><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong> SKEW at <strong>145.95</strong> has barely moved through the decision while the 30-day measure firmed, so the premium being added is for a general widening rather than for a crash. Stripping today out of Friday leaves the expiry session carrying about <strong>0.74%</strong>, close to the range charged for today.</li> <li><strong>Correlation read.</strong> COR3M rose <strong>5.32%</strong> on a session where the Dow fell <strong>1.21%</strong> and the Nasdaq 100 finished flat, about as dispersed as a tape gets. In our view implied correlation rising into that dispersion says the market expects the next move to arrive as an index move rather than another rotation.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addresses the European Parliament at <strong>11:30 CET</strong>, with a press conference at <strong>12:30 CET</strong>. The Bank of England decides at <strong>13:00 CET</strong>, with rates widely expected to stay on hold, and US jobless claims and August housing starts follow at <strong>14:30 CET</strong>.</p> <p>Carnival and Next report. Friday brings the Bank of Japan, where another increase is expected, plus the September quarterly expiry. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>The hike was priced and the message was not, which is where the split comes from. Rate volatility fell because the question it was asking has been answered for now. Equity volatility firmed because the answer arrived with projections pointing higher and a chair who declined to call conditions restrictive, moving the uncertainty from the decision to the path.</p> <p>What the option market is not doing is paying up for it. Friday’s window decayed along the flat-volatility path overnight and today’s range is priced tighter than yesterday’s. The premium sits in the 30-day tenor and in implied correlation rather than in the next two sessions.</p> <p>In our assessment that leaves an index which has already used its weekly range walking into a quarterly expiry with the event behind it. Whether the last two sessions stay quiet depends less on the Federal Reserve now than on whether the front end of the Treasury curve has finished repricing, and options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="#" data-id="8AFE60B682DC4D23914ECE6A9A882627" data-type="Article">Fed day prices like a month - Options Brief - 16 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-break-software-catches---options-brief---15-september-2026-15092026" data-id="8FE532D68FBC4F5D992EBBCB71FFE838" data-type="Article">Chips break software catches - Options Brief - 15 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/vol-collapses-skew-climbs---options-brief---14-september-2026-14092026" data-id="27360F37E44E438FAE63E165E09E46CD" data-type="Article">Vol collapses skew climbs - Options Brief - 14 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/week-overruns-one-day-reprices---options-brief---11-september-2026-11092026" data-id="6B68EE2847784F2B8D1ADACDC0D772B2" data-type="Article">Week overruns one day reprices - Options Brief - 11 September 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---first-fed-hike-since-2023-lifts-the-dollar---17-september-2026-17092026" data-id="A6BC9F27EF7D4B05AF17E023256B96B3" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - First Fed hike since 2023 lifts the dollar - 17 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-holds-firm-as-treasury-yields-hit-2007-highs---16-september-2026-16092026" data-id="33D5E8C6E56F4FCA927218CDCC5B5F07" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil holds firm as Treasury yields hit 2007 highs - 16 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>10 energy stocks and ETFs to watch in 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Energy has been a standout in 2026: </span></strong>higher oil and gas prices, tighter supply and geopolitical risk have supported strong cash flows, dividends and share buybacks across the sector.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong ><span>After the rally, quality matters more: </span></strong><span >commodity prices can lift almost every producer, but strong balance sheets, low production costs and disciplined spending become more important when conditions turn less supportive.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><strong ><span>There is more than one way to get exposure: </span></strong><span >individual stocks can offer different mixes of income, valuation and commodity sensitivity, while energy ETFs can spread risk across companies and regions.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span> <p><span>Energy has been one of the strongest parts of the market in 2026, supported by higher oil and gas prices, tighter supply and renewed geopolitical risk. For investors, the attraction is clear: many energy companies are generating strong cash flows, paying healthy dividends and returning capital through share buybacks.</span></p> <p><span>But the sector also comes with an important catch. Energy profits are heavily influenced by commodity prices, which companies do not control. High oil prices can lift almost every producer, while a sharp fall can quickly pressure earnings, dividends and share prices. After a strong rally, valuation also matters more. Some companies still trade at relatively modest earnings multiples, while others now price in a more supportive environment.</span></p> <p><span>The key is therefore to look beyond the oil price itself. Balance-sheet strength, low production costs, disciplined spending and sustainable dividends matter more over a full cycle. Diversified energy ETFs can also reduce the risk of relying too heavily on one company or region.</span></p> <p><span>Energy can still offer income, inflation protection and exposure to global demand. But after such a strong run, investors should focus less on chasing the theme and more on identifying which businesses can still perform when conditions become less favourable.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">For more inspiration,<a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/inspiration/thematicinvestingdetails?selectedTabId=inspiration_fa4c21-categories-analysis~latestarticles&themeid=53340c07-3bb1-4f35-ba6e-25a8b236ab98" target="_blank"> explore our Oil and Gas Majors shortlist.</a></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Oil and gas majors</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Warsh hawkish, but market quick to reverse. Now comes BoJ.</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:42:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Will initial reaction to FOMC prove misleading?</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/warsh-hawkish-but-market-quick-to-reverse-now-comes-boj/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>Meta's <span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/ai-zuckerberg-meta-slowdown-2f4eab05b1e931456d00ebc2fe93c989" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown</a></span>, prefers "evaluators"</li> <li>DeepQuarry <span><a href="https://deepquarry.substack.com/p/anthropics-pre-ipo-profitability" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability</a></span> (first portion of post available for free)</li> </ul> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - First Fed hike since 2023 lifts the dollar - 17 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 06:15:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: The Fed delivers its first hike in three years with a hawkish message on more to come</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: Wall Street fell after a hawkish Fed hike, Europe advanced before the decision, while Asian markets traded mixed.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Equity volatility firmed after the Fed while rates volatility compressed</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot steadied through the hike as a House panel advanced a crypto tax framework</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil fell sharply on Saudi pipeline repair prospects while gold gave back its pre-Fed gains</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US Treasury yields </li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD rallies sharply on hawkish FOMC meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Fed raised the funds rate 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, its first hike since 2023</strong>, citing elevated inflation and the need to move back toward 2%. Most officials see at least one more hike this year, but market projections suggest at least three more Fed rate hikes by mid-2027. Growth forecasts for 2026–27 were nudged up, inflation projections for 2028 are slightly higher, and the unemployment outlook was lowered to 4.1% through 2028. At the Fed Chair Warsh press conference, Warsh positioned the rate hike as “removing a dose of accommodation” and said that he was “hard pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive”.</li> <li><strong>US President Trump threatened “very serious” tariffs and even a halt in trade in some goods with the EU over talk of Canada becoming the first associate member of the EU. C</strong>anada’s Prime minister Carney will speak before the eu Parliament later today.</li> <li><strong>Saudi Arabia expects to restore about half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days and full flows in six weeks after drone damage</strong>, and is temporarily shipping more crude through the Strait of Hormuz with US military support. Earlier this week, 18 million barrels of crude and products moved through Hormuz, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.</li> <li><strong>US retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in August 2026, the strongest in five months</strong>, after a 0.5% drop in July and above the 0.8% forecast. Gains were broad-based, led by gas stations and online retailers, while building materials/garden stores slipped. Core retail sales jumped 1.4%, far above the 0.4% consensus..</li> <li><strong>New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2026</strong>, slightly above forecasts but down from 0.9% in Q1, the weakest pace since Q2 2025. Growth was supported by goods-producing industries and exports, while primary industries contracted and domestic demand was soft. GDP rose 2.6% yoy, beating expectations.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0930 – Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney to speak before EU Parliament</li> <li>1030 – Canada PM Carney and European Parliament President Metsola to hold press conference</li> <li>1100 – UK Bank of England Rate Decision</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. Housing Starts</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Carnival Corporation, Next</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow Jones dropped 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 finished essentially flat after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that inflation remained too high. Financials led losses, with Huntington Bancshares down 5.6%, while J.B. Hunt plunged 13.3% after warning that high diesel costs would pressure third-quarter profits. AI infrastructure remained a bright spot as Lumentum surged 9.6% and Coherent gained 6.9% on continued optimism around data-centre demand. Markets now face the prospect of another Fed hike before year-end.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.5% and the FTSE 100 added 0.3% as falling oil prices provided some relief ahead of the Fed decision. Industrial and cyclical stocks led the advance. Barratt Redrow jumped 11.7% after annual results showed profits in line with expectations despite a difficult UK housing market, while Soitec surged 13.4% after JPMorgan upgraded the semiconductor equipment group. Babcock gained 2.8% after maintaining its full-year outlook. Attention now shifts to the Bank of England, with rates expected to remain unchanged.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities traded mixed as investors absorbed the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 and a stronger US dollar. The Nikkei 225 traded around 0.3% higher, the Kospi rose roughly +0.6%, while the Hang Seng fell about 0.8% as early gains faded across the region. Samsung Electronics edged 0.6% higher and SK Hynix gained 0.3% as Korean chipmakers gave back early gains, while investors continued to digest the outlook for global interest rates. Focus now turns to Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting, where markets expect another rate increase.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.71 | VIX FUTURES: 18.50 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.95) | MOVE: 80.73 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>The Fed's hawkish hike is the trigger. <strong>VIX rose 3% to 17.71</strong> while VIX1D eased to 17.01 after Tuesday's spike and the front VIX future slipped to 18.50; VVIX held near 95. <strong>Rates volatility compressed instead: MOVE fell 3.6% to 80.7</strong> and Treasury ETF volatility dropped almost 8%.</li> <li>The <strong>VIX cash curve stays in contango</strong> from 17.40 at nine days to 22.07 at one year; SKEW is steady at 145.9, still elevated. <strong>SPX options imply a 0.77% move to today's close and 1.07% to Friday</strong>, the quarterly expiry. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~76,360 (+0.28%) | ETHEREUM ~2,430 (+0.67%) | IBIT 43.04 (-0.16%) | ETHA 18.15 (-0.27%) | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto spot traded through the Fed hike with little net change, bitcoin swinging between roughly $75,000 and $76,500 around the decision, while listed crypto names extended Tuesday's slide: <strong>Coinbase fell 4.4% and Circle 6.8%</strong>, though miners diverged with <strong>Cipher up 10.8%</strong>. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw their largest daily outflow since June on Tuesday.</li> <li>A day after the Clarity Act stalled, the <strong>House Ways and Means Committee approved the first federal crypto tax framework, 38 to 5</strong>, applying wash-sale rules to digital assets, while the SEC and CFTC signalled they would push ahead with rules of their own.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude has fallen back below USD 106 after Wednesday’s 2.7% drop, </strong>reversing much of this week’s supply-risk spike. Saudi Arabia is reportedly offering additional cargoes to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, providing a workaround for the disruption to the East-West pipeline and Yanbu export terminal. Saudi Arabia also reported that some half of East-West pipeline capacity will be returned to service in coming days after a complete shutdown due to recent attacks. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude stocks falling by only 0.6 million barrels last week, less than expected, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. Brent is down again this morning after settling at USD 105.83, although the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to disappear while Yanbu remains disrupted and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.</li> <li><strong>Gold trades in choppy fashion around the USD 4,300 level early Thurdsay after an exceptionally volatile Fed session. </strong>Spot gold initially rallied as high as USD 4,366 yesterday before plunging to around USD 4,240 after the Fed delivered the expected 25-basis-point hike and Chair Warsh signalled that further tightening remains possible. The subsequent recovery to around USD 4,305 has come despite the dollar reaching a seven-week high, helped by some easing in long-end Treasury yields even as the front end repriced further Fed tightening. The price action arguably strengthens the case that gold demand is no longer being driven solely by the traditional rates-and-dollar relationship, with fiscal, geopolitical and central-bank diversification demand continuing to provide support. Technically, USD 4,240–4,250 is now the near-term support area, while a recovery through USD 4,350–4,365 would begin to repair the recent downside momentum.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasury yields spiked higher at the front-end of the US treasury yield curve as the FOMC hiked rates and surprised on the hawkish </strong>side in the accompanying staff economic projections on the economy and in Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference (see more above). The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose seven basis points to close the day near 4.74% after dipping as low as 4.60% ahead of the Fed decision. At the the long end of the curve, the benchmark US 10-year yield only ended the day two basis points higher, just above the key 5.00% level, perhaps in part in the belief that the Fed will stay sufficiently hawkish to keep ahead of the inflation threat.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar jumped higher late Wednesday on the hawkish FOMC surprise </strong>as the front-end of the US yield curve priced in further tightening well beyond what the Fed's own "dot plot" forecasts anticipate. <strong>EURUSD</strong> slipped to new lows and as low as 1.1456 before finding support, while <strong>USDJPY</strong> rose as high as 156.30 before finding resistance and slipping back below 156.00 by early trading in Europe on Thursday.</li> <li><strong>The Swiss franc weakened broadly and USDCHF spiked higher on Wednesday</strong>, taking the pair above local resistance and to new highs above 0.8250, the highest since June of 2025 as sharply higher front-end US yields intensified the focus on the widening of the yield spread between the US and Switzerland, which maintains its zero interest rate policy for now.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Trump–Xi summit: 5 things investors should watch</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 05:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Expect targeted deals, not a grand bargain.</span></strong><span> Agriculture and trade barriers look more likely to produce tangible announcements than a comprehensive US–China agreement.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Rare earths and chips could matter more for markets than tariffs.</span></strong><span> Changes to export restrictions could have direct implications for industrial and semiconductor supply chains.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch the details, not just the handshake.</span></strong><span> Boeing, soybeans, rare-earth stocks, semiconductors and China/Hong Kong equities could all see event-driven volatility.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>Donald Trump is expected to host Xi Jinping in Washington on <strong>24 September</strong>, although Beijing has yet to formally confirm the visit. A state dinner is also planned, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, among those expected to attend.</span></p> <p><span>Investors should probably not expect a sweeping US–China deal. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said Washington is looking to <strong>manage the relationship rather than negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement</strong>, although agriculture and non-tariff barriers could produce announcements. The two sides have also been exploring tariff reductions covering around $30 billion of goods.</span></p> <p><span>That makes the details of the summit more important than the handshake itself.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>1. Are tariffs actually coming down?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The US and China have been exploring potential tariff reductions covering around $30 billion of goods, but the scope and implementation remain uncertain.</span></p> <p><span>For markets, a specific list of tariff cuts would carry more weight than another commitment to keep talking. It could reduce some of the policy uncertainty hanging over companies exposed to US–China trade.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>2. Agriculture may deliver the easiest win</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Agriculture is one area where US officials have explicitly signalled possible announcements.</span></p> <p><span>China recently bought around <strong>1 million tonnes of US soybeans</strong>, taking total purchases closer towards an annual commitment of 25 million tonnes through 2028. China still applies an additional 10% tariff on US goods, meaning tariff relief could encourage more private Chinese buyers to return.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch for:</span></strong><span> larger agricultural purchase commitments, tariff cuts and removal of non-tariff barriers.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>3. Rare earths could matter more than tariffs</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Critical minerals remain an important source of leverage in the relationship.</span></p> <p><span>China's dominance of processing means export restrictions can affect industries far beyond mining. Materials such as <strong>yttrium</strong>, for example, are used in aerospace, semiconductors and jet-engine coatings.</span></p> <p><span>Any improvement in access to Chinese supplies could ease pressure on parts of the US industrial supply chain. But it could also reduce some of the geopolitical scarcity premium attached to companies developing alternative rare-earth supply.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>4. Watch AI — but it remains hard to assume a chip breakthrough</span></strong></h2> <p><span>AI is increasingly becoming its own diplomatic track. US and Chinese officials have been discussing risks including AI-enabled cyberattacks and autonomous military systems.</span></p> <p><span>But investors should distinguish <strong>AI cooperation from semiconductor export relief</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Restrictions on advanced chips remain a much harder issue. Any change in the rules governing sales of AI chips or semiconductor equipment into China would likely have a more direct earnings impact than broader cooperation around AI safety.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>5. Taiwan could be the biggest geopolitical wildcard</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Xi is expected to raise Taiwan during the summit, while US allies are watching closely for any shift in Washington's language. A proposed $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan also remains pending.</span></p> <p><span>Even relatively subtle changes in rhetoric could matter for markets because Taiwan sits at the centre of the advanced semiconductor supply chain.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, this means the statements released <strong>after</strong> the meeting may matter almost as much as any trade agreements announced during it.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong><span>Where could volatility show up?</span></strong></h1> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>1. Aerospace</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Watch: Boeing, GE Aerospace</span></strong></p> <p><span>China committed to 200 Boeing aircraft following the Trump–Xi meeting in May. Investors may watch for confirmation, delivery details or an expansion of that commitment.</span></p> <p><span>But Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has recently played down expectations of another large China order at next week's summit, making the hurdle for a positive surprise more nuanced.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch for:</span></strong><span> new orders, confirmation of existing commitments and delivery timelines.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>2. Soybeans and agriculture</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Watch: ADM, Bunge</span></strong></p> <p><span>Agriculture may offer one of the clearest areas for a tangible agreement. China has already stepped up US soybean purchases ahead of Xi's expected visit.</span></p> <p><span>Soybean futures may therefore provide the most direct market reaction, while agricultural processors could also see volatility depending on the scale and structure of any commitments.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch for:</span></strong><span> purchase volumes, tariff reductions and whether private Chinese buyers return to US supplies.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>3. Rare earths</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Watch: MP Materials, USA Rare Earth and downstream manufacturers</span></strong></p> <p><span>This could be a two-sided trade.</span></p> <p><span>Easier Chinese exports could benefit aerospace, semiconductor and energy companies by reducing supply risks. But they could also remove some of the scarcity premium supporting alternative US suppliers.</span></p> <p><span>If restrictions tighten instead, the opposite dynamic could emerge.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch for:</span></strong><span> export licences, magnets, yttrium and other critical-mineral restrictions.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>4. Semiconductors</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Watch: Nvidia, AMD, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, ASML, TSMC</span></strong></p> <p><span>Nvidia may be particularly headline-sensitive, with CEO Jensen Huang expected at the state dinner and AI competition high on the summit agenda.</span></p> <p><span>But the key distinction remains: <strong>AI safety cooperation is not the same as chip-export relief.</strong></span></p> <p><span>The bigger market catalyst would be any change in restrictions governing advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Watch for:</span></strong><span> export licences, specific chip models, equipment restrictions and any change in language around Taiwan.<br /> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>5. China and Hong Kong equities</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Watch: Hang Seng Tech, Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com</span></strong></p> <p><span>These names may act as the broader sentiment trade around the summit.</span></p> <p><span>Concrete tariff relief or signs of a more stable relationship could reduce part of the geopolitical risk premium attached to Chinese assets. Constructive rhetoric without tangible policy changes may produce a less durable reaction.<br /> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>NVidia Corp.</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span> <span>Boeing</span> <span>The Boeing Company</span> <span>Boeing Co.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Fed review: The hike was expected. The message was more hawkish.</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><span>The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, but the bigger message came from its stronger economic forecasts, higher rate path and Warsh’s press conference.</span></li> <li><span>This was not presented as a one-off response to oil. The Fed increasingly sees inflation as broad enough, and the economy as strong enough, to justify tighter policy.</span></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/warsh.htm">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh</a> was arguably more hawkish than the projections, arguing that financial conditions are not particularly restrictive and suggesting there could be more tightening ahead.</span></li> <li><span>The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is now the most important market signal. Its next move will help determine the outlook for bonds, equities, technology and the US dollar.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p><span>The Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023 was almost fully priced. What mattered was everything around it: a unanimous vote, higher interest-rate projections, stronger growth forecasts, a lower unemployment forecast and Warsh’s assessment that financial conditions are not particularly restrictive.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>What changed in the statement?</strong></span></h2> <p><span>The <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm">September 16, 2026 FOMC statement</a> was unusually short, but several changes were significant.</span></p> <p><span>The Fed said that economic activity was expanding at a “solid pace”. It highlighted resilient domestic spending, strong productivity and robust capital investment, while noting that job growth had kept pace with labour-force growth.</span></p> <p><span>In other words, the Fed is not describing an economy that needs protection from higher interest rates.</span></p> <p><span>Its inflation language was also firmer. The Fed said inflation remained elevated and that the rate increase would support a more timely return to its 2% target. The statement ended with an unusually emphatic commitment: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”</span></p> <p><span>Perhaps more important was what disappeared. The Fed removed language from its <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm">July 29, 2026 FOMC statement</a> attributing elevated inflation to supply shocks.</span></p> <p><span>That is a hawkish shift.</span></p> <p><span>If inflation is primarily the result of an oil shock, higher rates have limited ability to resolve it. But if resilient demand is helping companies pass higher energy, tariff and wage costs through to consumers, tighter monetary policy becomes considerably more relevant.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>The projections were more hawkish than the hike</strong></span></h2> <p><span>The <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf">September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections</a> was arguably the most important part of the meeting.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0" width="583"> <thead> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Fed median projection</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>June 2026</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>September 2026</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Change</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><span>2026 GDP growth</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>2.2%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>2.3%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Stronger</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>2026 unemployment</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.3%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.1%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Lower</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>2026 PCE inflation</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.6%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.7%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Higher</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>2026 core PCE inflation</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.3%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.4%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Higher</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>End-2026 Fed funds rate</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.8%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.1%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>One more hike</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>End-2027 Fed funds rate</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.6%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.1%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>No cuts in 2027</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>End-2028 Fed funds rate</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.4%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.9%</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Higher for longer</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span>As the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf">September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections</a> show, 16 of the 18 policymakers expect at least one additional hike in 2026. The median projection for PCE inflation does not return to 2% until 2029.</span></p> <p><span>The combination is striking:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Higher growth + lower unemployment + higher inflation + higher rates.</span></strong></p> <p><span>The Fed believes the economy is stronger than previously expected—and that strength is one reason inflation is proving difficult to bring down.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Warsh was arguably more hawkish than the projections</strong></span></h2> <p><span>In his <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf">September 16, 2026 press-conference opening statement</a>, Warsh said inflation had remained too high for too long and that recent readings had not shown a meaningful improvement in underlying trends.</span></p> <p><span>That suggests the Fed is no longer prepared simply to look through higher energy prices and wait for disinflation to resume.</span></p> <p><span>He also said he would be “hard-pressed” to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive, characterising the hike as removing a “dose of accommodation”.</span></p> <p><span>That is significant. A policy rate approaching 4%, a 10-year Treasury yield around 5% and mortgage rates nearing 7% may look restrictive. But equities remain elevated, credit is still available, employment is strong and capital expenditure is booming.</span></p> <p><span>From the Fed’s perspective, monetary policy is not yet suppressing demand meaningfully. That leaves room for further tightening if inflation remains persistent.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Trump immediately pushed back</strong></span></h2> <p><span>In a September 16, 2026 Truth Social post, President Trump argued that US interest rates should be “1%, or less” and called for rates to be lowered “AND FAST!”</span></p> <p><span>The contrast is stark:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Trump:</span></strong><span> Rates should be around 1%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Warsh and the FOMC:</span></strong><span> Rates will probably need to exceed 4%.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Political pressure for lower Fed rates does not automatically mean lower borrowing costs across the economy.</span></p> <p><span>If markets begin expecting easier Fed policy while inflation, tariffs, fiscal deficits and AI-related capital demand remain elevated, shorter-term yields could decline—but investors may demand a larger inflation and fiscal-risk premium for holding 10- and 30-year Treasuries.</span></p> <p><span>That could produce:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Lower expected Fed rates → higher long-term yields.</span></strong></p> <p><span>Political pressure could therefore steepen the yield curve rather than solve the government’s borrowing-cost problem.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Has the Fed restored its credibility?</strong></span></h2> <p><span>Despite that political pressure, the market’s initial verdict was that the Fed had reinforced rather than weakened its inflation-fighting credibility.</span></p> <p><span>After the decision, nominal yields, real yields and inflation expectations initially fell, with 10-year breakeven inflation dropping by more than 3 basis points to around 2.35%. Warsh’s hawkish press conference subsequently pushed shorter-term yields higher, but it did not trigger a disorderly rise in 10- and 30-year yields.</span></p> <p><span>The yield curve therefore flattened: markets priced a greater chance of further Fed tightening without demanding a sharply higher premium for holding longer-term debt.</span></p> <p><span>The US dollar also strengthened. That matters because markets were not celebrating a dovish pivot or the return of cheap money. They were responding to a central bank that appeared more serious about controlling inflation.</span></p> <p><span>This looks more like a <strong>credibility-relief trade than a pure Goldilocks reaction</strong>.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Where could the 10-year Treasury yield go?</strong></span></h2> <p><span>The 10-year yield around 5% is now the most important market signal.</span></p> <p><span>There are three broad scenarios:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Yields stabilise around current levels:</span></strong><span> This would suggest the Fed’s credibility dividend is holding. Markets may be able to absorb another potential hike without a further surge in long-term borrowing costs.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Yields move lower:</span></strong><span> This would probably require clearer evidence that inflation is cooling, oil prices are retreating or economic activity is weakening. That could help bonds and rate-sensitive assets, although weaker growth would introduce a different risk.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Yields rise materially further:</span></strong><span> This would suggest the challenge extends beyond monetary policy. Persistent inflation, large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and AI-related competition for capital could keep pushing up the return investors demand for holding longer-dated debt.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Our base case is not necessarily a straight move higher, but a period of elevated and volatile long-term yields.</span></p> <p><span>If Warsh maintains a firm inflation stance and the 10-year yield remains orderly, the credibility dividend can persist. But if the Fed continues tightening and 10- and 30-year yields still rise sharply, markets would be signalling that the problem extends beyond the Fed to fiscal supply, inflation risk and competition for capital.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Why did technology and AI stocks hold up?</strong></span></h2> <p><span>Technology benefited from two signals.</span></p> <p><span>First, the Fed’s projections offered a relatively favourable economic combination: stronger growth, lower unemployment and no dramatic increase in the projected number of rate hikes. That supported the outlook for economic activity and corporate earnings.</span></p> <p><span>Second, inflation expectations declined and the long end of the Treasury curve remained orderly. That reduced the immediate risk of another valuation shock for growth stocks.</span></p> <p><span>Technology also has its own fundamental support. Large technology companies generally have strong cash flows and can fund investment internally, while spending on semiconductors, memory, networking, cooling, power and data centres remains substantial.</span></p> <p><span>But this is not an all-clear signal.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Cash-generative technology companies may remain more resilient</span></strong><span> than businesses dependent on repeated external financing.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI infrastructure demand remains supportive</span></strong><span>, but valuations face a higher hurdle when the 10-year yield is around 5%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Returns on investment will receive greater scrutiny.</span></strong><span> Markets may increasingly distinguish between companies spending heavily on AI and those demonstrating revenue growth, productivity gains or a credible path to returns.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The AI trade could broaden.</span></strong><span> As the focus shifts from building infrastructure towards using AI, potential beneficiaries may expand into software, financials, healthcare and industrial companies.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The key distinction is why yields are high.</span></p> <p><span>If yields remain elevated because growth and investment are strong while inflation expectations stay anchored, profitable technology companies may continue to absorb the pressure. If yields rise because inflation, fiscal risk or Fed credibility deteriorates, valuation pressure will become much harder to ignore.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>What does this mean across markets?</strong></span></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>US Treasuries:</span></strong><span> Shorter maturities remain sensitive to another possible hike. The long end is the credibility test: stability would be reassuring, while a renewed surge would point to deeper inflation or fiscal concerns.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US dollar:</span></strong><span> The dollar may remain supported by higher US rates and renewed confidence in the Fed’s inflation commitment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold:</span></strong><span> A stronger dollar and higher real yields are near-term headwinds, while geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal concerns and central-bank demand provide longer-term support.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Broad equities:</span></strong><span> Stronger growth helps earnings, but higher rates raise the importance of pricing power, free cash flow and balance-sheet strength.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Technology and AI:</span></strong><span> Structural demand remains supportive, but higher yields favour profitable, self-funded businesses over more speculative or capital-dependent companies.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Banks:</span></strong><span> Higher rates can support lending margins, although prolonged tightening increases funding and credit risks.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Small companies:</span></strong><span> Resilient growth is helpful, but refinancing costs and floating-rate debt remain important vulnerabilities.</span></li> <li><strong><span>REITs and property:</span></strong><span> These remain sensitive to long-term yields, making debt maturity profiles, balance-sheet strength and lease structures increasingly important.</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Portfolio observations in a higher-rate environment</strong></span></h2> <p><span>A higher-rate environment changes several portfolio trade-offs:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Interest-rate sensitivity:</span></strong><span> Longer-duration bonds and highly valued growth equities are more sensitive to changes in yields, increasing the importance of the potential return available relative to that risk.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Self-funded growth:</span></strong><span> Companies with strong free cash flow and manageable debt may be better placed than businesses dependent on repeated external financing.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI concentration:</span></strong><span> Portfolios that depend heavily on continued AI capex acceleration may be more exposed than those that also include businesses capable of turning AI into productivity gains and revenue growth.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Pricing power:</span></strong><span> Businesses able to protect margins when labour, tariff and energy costs rise may be more resilient.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Debt exposure:</span></strong><span> Highly indebted companies, weaker property vehicles and capital-intensive projects may face greater pressure if refinancing costs stay elevated.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Sources of return:</span></strong><span> Quality, value, income and selective inflation-sensitive assets may behave differently from growth equities when valuation multiples are under pressure.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Bonds and cash:</span></strong><span> Higher yields increase the potential contribution of bonds and cash to portfolio income, although inflation and duration risks still matter.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Currency exposure:</span></strong><span> A stronger US dollar can affect the home-currency return from global assets, particularly for investors with liabilities outside the US.</span></li> </ul> <span></span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Corporate Bonds</span> <span>Income investor – Bonds</span> <span>Gold</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 17 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US and HK raise rates. Saudi to restore half of East-West pipeline in days.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>S&P 500 closed down 0.4% after rate hike; Lumentum gained 9.6%</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Fed rate hike strengthens dollar; USDJPY surges ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil pulls back on Saudi pipeline restoration</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasury curve flattens sharply post-Fed</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span><strong ><span></span></strong></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The Fed raised the funds rate 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, its first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation and the need to move back toward 2%.</span></strong></span><span> Most officials see at least one more hike this year. Growth forecasts for 2026–27 were nudged up, inflation projections for 2026 are slightly higher, and the unemployment outlook was lowered to 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The HKMA raised its base rate 25 bps to 4.25% on September 17, 2026</span></strong></span><span>, its first hike since 2023, in line with the Fed under Hong Kong’s currency peg. The move comes amid solid trade but could pressure the fragile property market and sentiment, already cautious on China’s capital outflow controls.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Saudi Arabia expects to restore about half of its East-West pipeline</span></strong></span><span> capacity within days and full flows in six weeks after drone damage, and is temporarily shipping more crude through the Strait of Hormuz with US military support. Earlier this week, 18 million barrels of crude and products moved through Hormuz, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2 2026</span></strong></span><span>, slightly above forecasts but down from 0.9% in Q1, the weakest pace since Q2 2025. Growth was supported by goods-producing industries and exports, while primary industries contracted and domestic demand was soft. GDP rose 2.6% yoy, beating expectations.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in August 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the strongest in five months, after a 0.5% drop in July and above the 0.8% forecast. Gains were broad-based, led by gas stations and online retailers, while building materials/garden stores slipped. Core retail sales jumped 1.4%, far above the 0.4% consensus.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US:</span></strong><span> US equities fell after the Fed's rate hike and Warsh's hawkish press conference. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% at 7,551.81 — its sixth consecutive decline on a Fed decision day, the longest such streak since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 ended flat. Financials underperformed, falling 1.6%, with Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) down 5.6%. <strong>Optical networking stocks bucked the trend: Lumentum (LITE) surged 9.6% and Coherent (COHR) gained 6.9% on AI data-centre demand optimism. </strong>In after-hours trading, Fluence Energy (FLNC) plunged 16% after cutting its full-year sales forecast, citing delays in its manufacturing ramp-up. J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) fell 13% during the session after warning that record diesel prices would knock Q3 profit 5–10% below Q2 levels.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU:</span></strong><span> European equities closed higher ahead of the Fed decision, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.5% to 637.09, led by industrial goods and services stocks. The DAX gained 0.5% to 25,537.75, with Siemens Energy the top mover, up 3.1%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10,688.47, with Barratt Redrow the standout, surging 11.7%. The SMI added 0.4%, led by ABB (+2.1%). Turkish equities were a notable outlier, falling 6% and triggering a market-wide circuit breaker.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia:</span></strong><span> Asian equities are trading mixed in early Thursday trade, digesting the Fed's hawkish hike and dollar strength. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.85% to 64,466 as tech stocks provide support, though yen weakness and the looming BOJ decision on Friday are keeping gains in check. The Kospi is up 0.49% to 6,750, with Apple supplier stocks in focus following the iPhone Duo foldable launch. The Hang Seng (24,713) and STI (5,635) are little changed in early trade. Asian sovereign bonds are under pressure, tracking the post-Fed move in Treasuries, with Australian and New Zealand government bonds slipping in early trade.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Events this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Thursday: BOE rate decision</span></li> <li><span>Friday: BOJ rate decision</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 (25 bps) under Chair Kevin Warsh drove broad <strong>USD </strong>strength on Wednesday, as markets priced in two more hikes by year-end amid concerns that inflation remains persistently high. All G-10 currencies weakened against the dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up over 0.5% on the day and about 1.1% on the week.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>JPY</span></strong></span><span> was the most notable mover, with<strong> USDJPY </strong>surging sharply post-FOMC. Strategists warned the currency could weaken further ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, unless the BOJ signals more tightening.</span></li> <li><strong>GBP</strong> fell 0.6% to below a key level during Warsh's press conference. </li> <li><strong>USDCAD</strong> climbed for a sixth consecutive day — its longest winning streak since June 24 — breaking above its 100-day moving average at 1.3936. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>WTI crude fell toward $101.54/bbl (-0.87%) and Brent is near $105.13/bbl (-0.66%) in early Asia trade, extending Wednesday's decline of over 3% — the largest single-day drop since August 4. Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking to restore approximately half the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline within days, easing the supply disruption fears that had driven Brent above $108/bbl earlier this month.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>is trading at $4,282/oz (+0.43%), finding modest support despite the post-Fed dollar rally. The metal has been caught between competing forces — rising Middle East tensions providing a safe-haven bid, while a stronger dollar and higher real yields act as headwinds. US 10-year real yields stand at approximately 2.59%.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The 2s10s spread flattened by more than 5bps as the front end bore the brunt of the post-Fed selloff. The <strong>2-year yield</strong> touched 4.74% — its highest since 2024 — before settling at 4.72% in early Asia. The <strong>10-year yield</strong> briefly returned above 5% before pulling back to 4.996%, while the<strong> 30-year yield</strong> is at 5.334%. All three tenors are modestly lower in early Thursday Asia trade as some relief buying emerges. Bond traders signal growing confidence in Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility, with markets now pricing three additional hikes by mid-2027.</span></li> <li><span>Australian and New Zealand government bonds slipped in early Thursday trade, tracking the post-Fed move in Treasuries. Asian investment-grade credit spreads, however, tightened as the Fed's pivot to tightening was seen as a credibility-enhancing move. The <strong>China-US 10-year yield </strong>gap has widened to a record, with the US 10-year at ~5% versus China's 10-year at approximately 1.68%, a spread of over 320bps.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>One crypto selloff, three very different businesses</h1> <p>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Coinbase is most exposed to clearer market rules</strong> because trading and crypto participation directly affect its business.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Circle Internet Group already has more regulatory clarity around its core product</strong>, while USDC adoption and interest rates matter heavily for its economics.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Strategy Inc is mainly a Bitcoin exposure</strong>, making Bitcoin and its capital structure more important than exchange regulation.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>On 15 September, the United States Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity, or CLARITY, Act. The bill would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission and create federal rules for digital-asset intermediaries. It did not secure the 60 votes needed to proceed.</span></p> <p><span>Bitcoin fell, while Coinbase dropped around 10%, Circle around 11% and Strategy around 5%. The market reaction looked similar, but the businesses behind those moves are very different.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Coinbase: the toll road</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Coinbase runs a crypto exchange and financial platform. Trading remains important, but it is expanding into derivatives, stablecoins and payments.</span></p> <p><span>That makes CLARITY particularly relevant. In the second quarter, Coinbase reached record crypto trading market share, while average USD Coin, or USDC, held across its products reached 20 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>Clearer rules could affect what can trade, how platforms register and how comfortable institutions feel participating. For Coinbase, regulation can change both the road and the toll.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Circle: the digital-dollar business</span></strong></h3> <p><span> <p>Circle’s main product is USDC, a digital token designed to stay worth one US dollar. The bigger USDC becomes, the more assets Circle holds in reserve to back it, and those reserves can generate interest income.</p> <p>That makes Circle less dependent on crypto trading than Coinbase. Its key drivers are USDC adoption and interest rates. In simple terms, more USDC in circulation can expand the income base, while higher rates increase what those reserves can earn. Lower rates work the other way.</p> <p>Strategically, that gives Circle a different exposure to the crypto ecosystem. It benefits from wider use of digital dollars, not just rising token prices or more speculative trading.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Strategy: Bitcoin with a corporate wrapper</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Strategy still owns a software business, but its investment case is dominated by its Bitcoin treasury and the financing used to build it.</span></p> <p><span>At the end of July, Strategy held more than 843,000 Bitcoin, alongside billions of dollars of debt and preferred shares. The key question is less whether CLARITY helps Strategy directly, and more what regulation does to Bitcoin demand and price.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Coinbase is sensitive to trading activity and regulation. Circle depends on stablecoin adoption and interest rates. Strategy carries the most direct Bitcoin-price exposure, alongside financing and dilution risk.</span></p> <p><span>The same crypto downturn can therefore reach each business through a different door.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Ask what actually generates revenue: </strong>trading, interest income, software or crypto exposure.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Identify the key driver:</strong> regulation, Bitcoin, interest rates or trading activity.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare balance sheets and funding needs</strong>, not just share-price correlation.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Ask whether the business creates value </strong>if crypto prices stop rising.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Clarity starts before Congress</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Coinbase, Circle and Strategy fell on the same headline, but investors are not buying the same economics. Coinbase is building crypto-market infrastructure. Circle is building around digital dollars. Strategy is mainly a listed Bitcoin treasury.</span></p> <p><span>Congress may eventually provide more clarity. Investors do not need to wait. Before buying a “crypto stock”, the useful question is simpler: what business do I actually own?</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Crypto and blockchain</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Saudi pipeline outage sends physical crude and diesel into scarcity pricing</h1> <p>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" >Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline outage has removed a crucial bypass around the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting crude deliveries from Yanbu and forcing European refiners to scramble for alternative barrels. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" >Brent futures near USD 110 are masking much greater stress in the physical market, where Dated Brent has surged above USD 130 per barrel as buyers compete for immediately available crude. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" >The refined-product squeeze remains even more severe, with diesel in Europe and the US trading above USD 220 per barrel, while steep backwardation has significantly boosted total returns for investors. </span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" >The risk of fuel protectionism is rising, with China considering tighter export quotas while US lawmakers discuss restricting diesel exports, potentially further fragmenting an already stressed global market.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p>The global oil market is sending increasingly different signals depending on where you look. Brent crude futures trade near USD 110 per barrel after gaining almost 20% so far this month, but the price of securing physical crude for immediate delivery in Europe has surged above USD 130. Meanwhile, diesel prices in the US and Europe have climbed above USD 220 per barrel as supply disruptions, depleted inventories and strong refining margins highlight an increasingly severe shortage of middle distillates.<br /> <br /> <p>The latest escalation followed last week’s attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the 1,200-kilometre conduit connecting the kingdom’s oil-producing eastern region with the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline had become a critical bypass around the Strait of Hormuz following the disruption to Gulf shipping earlier this year, recently carrying an estimated 4–5 million barrels per day.</p> <p>Its closure has therefore removed one of the most important safety valves in the global oil system at a particularly vulnerable time. Saudi Aramco has delayed or cancelled some September deliveries to European customers after loadings from Yanbu were suspended, leaving refiners scrambling for replacement cargoes. European buyers have responded by seeking crude from the North Sea, US, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Guyana, pushing the price of immediately available barrels sharply higher.</p> <p>The impact can be seen most clearly in Dated Brent. Unlike Brent futures, which currently reflect the price of oil for delivery several months ahead, Dated Brent which has now surged above USD 130 per barrel represents the prompt physical market for North Sea crude delivered into Europe. It is therefore a much better indicator of what refiners are actually paying to secure barrels today.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent and Fuel Products - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is no guarantee for future returns</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p> <p class="text--body"> <p>This divergence also helps explain the extreme backwardation seen across parts of the energy complex. Buyers are prepared to pay substantially more for crude and products today than for delivery further into the future, reflecting expectations that supply conditions will eventually improve but also the immediate need to keep refineries and distribution systems supplied.</p> <p>Some relief is emerging through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler data, the seven-day average of oil transit flows had risen to almost 12 million barrels per day by Sunday, the fastest pace since the June-July recovery. Importantly, there is now virtually no Iranian crude included in those flows following the US blockade of Iranian exports.</p> <p>However, the improvement needs to be viewed in the context of the East-West pipeline shutdown. Saudi Arabia has lost its principal alternative route around Hormuz and is therefore increasingly dependent on getting barrels through the Strait. Additional Hormuz flows may consequently represent substitution for lost pipeline exports rather than a comparable increase in overall global supply.</p> <p>Saudi Aramco has also begun offering additional crude through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman as it attempts to mitigate the disruption. Until the East-West pipeline resumes operations, the market remains unusually exposed to further interruptions in either Hormuz or the Red Sea.</p> <h2>Diesel becomes the bigger problem</h2> <p>While crude is tight, refined products remain the epicentre of the energy squeeze. Diesel prices in both Europe and the US have surged to a record above USD 220 per barrel, with European gasoil and New York ULSD recently trading around twice the price of Brent crude. This year’s extraordinary backwardation has further amplified investor returns. The Bloomberg Commodity Index total-return components show European gasoil up around 232% year-to-date and NY ULSD around 203%, compared with roughly 117% for Brent.</p> <p>The economic implications extend well beyond energy markets. Diesel is a critical input for road freight, agriculture, construction, mining and manufacturing, meaning sustained high prices eventually feed into transportation costs and consumer prices. US retail diesel reached a record USD 6.27 per gallon this week, while distillate inventories remain well below normal seasonal levels.</p> </p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Total returns across key energy futures - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2>Export restrictions risk amplifying the squeeze</h2> <p>Scarcity is now also raising the risk of policy responses that could further fragment global product markets. </p> <p>In China, gasoline inventories at state-owned suppliers have fallen to their lowest level since 2022, while diesel holdings have dropped to a 15-month low. Energy Aspects sees an increasing risk that Beijing may restrict monthly clean-product exports during the fourth quarter as authorities prioritise domestic supply. Such a move has not been announced, but reduced Chinese exports would remove another important source of marginal supply from Asian and global markets.</p> <p>Similar discussions are emerging in the US. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he is open to exploring a diesel export ban as domestic prices surge. While restricting exports could initially increase the amount of fuel available to US consumers, refiners warn it could ultimately prove counterproductive by weakening refinery economics while simultaneously removing US barrels from an already undersupplied global market.</p> <p>The result is an increasingly unusual energy market. Brent near USD 110 signals considerable stress, but arguably understates the severity of the current physical squeeze. Dated Brent above USD 130 and diesel above USD 200 tell a much clearer story of immediate scarcity.</p> <p>The next major signals will be the timing of repairs to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the pace of flows through Hormuz and whether the surge in physical prices begins to attract additional Atlantic Basin supply into Europe. Until then, steep backwardation and exceptionally high refining margins suggest the market remains willing to pay a substantial premium for one thing above all else: barrels available today.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">US stockpiles of distillates (diesel), gasoline, and SPR and level of crude and fuel exports - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>14 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-8-sept-2026-14092026" data-id="80ED3D12690044C1B105BD454224748B" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 8 Sept 2026</a><br /> 11 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-shock-reshapes-commodity-rally-as-yields-surge-and-metals-retreat-11092026" data-id="2FADE85F2C5F42D687D06BBBD74A2749" data-type="Article">Oil shock reshapes commodity rally as yields surge and metals retreat</a><br /> 9 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-hits-record-amid-weak-output-and-metal-piling-up-in-the-wrong-place-08092026" data-id="7D4C7EB1164F4CFAA7A24A7D7B1FD932" data-type="Article">Copper hits record amid weak output and metal piling up in the wrong place</a><br /> 8 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rangebound-as-weaker-dollar-offsets-rate-hike-and-inflation-risks-09092026" data-id="7676154B3FB8482284ABD5D94AEA5DE0" data-type="Article">Gold rangebound as weaker dollar offsets rate-hike and inflation risks</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/look-beyond-brent-to-see-the-true-scale-of-the-energy-squeeze-07092026" data-id="6C1F4401197547ECB036D3E069EAAF25" data-type="Article">Look beyond Brent to see the true scale of the energy squeeze</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil holds firm as Treasury yields hit 2007 highs - 16 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 05:56:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Oil supply risk and a priced Fed rate increase set a cautious tone before today's decision</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities fell as oil and bond yields rose, while Asia traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Short-dated volatility jumped into the Fed decision while the curve stayed calm in contango</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot held steady while exchange and stablecoin shares slumped on failed market-structure legislation</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold above USD 4,300 as rate hike fully priced; oil holds below USD 110 as Hormuz flows pick up</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US Treasury yields rolled back lower after new cycle highs Tuesday</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USDJPY squeezed up through key 155.00 area ahead of FOMC, elsewhere FX very quiet ahead of FOMC meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Fed rate hike imminent:</strong> Markets are pricing in near certainty (94% probability) of a 25bp Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting today, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both revised their calls to include a September hike following last week's hotter-than-expected August CPI print (core CPI +0.3% m/m).</li> <li>Mixed economic data: the <strong>UK jobless rate held at 4.9%</strong> in the three months to July, defying forecasts of 5.0%, while <strong>Germany's wholesale prices rose 6.8% year on year</strong> in August, the fastest since February 2023, driven by energy and raw materials costs. <strong>Japan's exports rose 19.3% year on year</strong> in August, beating forecasts and marking a twelfth straight month of growth on a weaker yen and AI-chip demand, though core machinery orders fell for a fourth time this year. The <strong>Empire State manufacturing index dropped to 7.6</strong> in September from 20.6, well below expectations: New orders were flat, shipments slipped, supply conditions worsened, and price pressures rose, but firms stayed optimistic, with the future conditions index at 29.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Aug. CPI</li> <li>0600 – Sweden Aug. Unemployment Ratae</li> <li>0900 – Eurozone Jul. Industrial Production</li> <li>1200 – Poland Aug. CPI</li> <li>1215 – Canada Aug. Housing Starts</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. Retail Sales</li> <li>1400 – US Aug. NAHB Housing Market Index</li> <li>1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report</li> <li>1730 – Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations</li> <li><strong>1800 – US FOMC Meeting</strong></li> <li><strong>1830 – US FOMC Press Conference with Fed Chair Warsh</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Lennar</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Carnival Corporation, Next</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow declined 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.7% as rising oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on risk appetite ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5%, its highest since 2007, while energy bucked the broader decline as Chevron 2.6% and ExxonMobil rose 2.6%. Crypto stocks came under heavier pressure after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, with Coinbase falling 10.1% and Circle Internet dropping 11.4%. Attention now shifts firmly to the Fed’s rate decision and guidance.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3%, the FTSE 100 lost 0.4%, and the DAX slipped 0.2% as higher oil prices and bond yields kept pressure on equities. Financials led the decline, with HSBC down 2.2% and London Stock Exchange Group falling 3.2%, while energy stocks benefited from stronger crude prices. LVMH dropped 2.6%, allowing L’Oréal to overtake it as France’s most valuable listed company as pressure on high-end luxury demand continued. Markets now turn to the Federal Reserve decision, followed by the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan up around 0.4%. The Nikkei 225 gained 0.3%, while the Kospi moved higher as chipmakers rebounded, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovering from recent AI-driven weakness. Hong Kong remained softer after Tuesday’s 1% decline, when CATL fell more than 4%, although Chinese AI-chip shares gained after Beijing outlined a five-year plan supporting semiconductors and advanced computing. With oil easing slightly, the Fed decision remains the main near-term driver before the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.20 | VIX FUTURES: 18.45 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (146.61) | MOVE: 83.71 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Today's FOMC decision is the session's dominant risk event, with a 25 basis point increase widely priced. <strong>VIX firmed to 17.20</strong> while <strong>VIX1D jumped to 17.14</strong>, more than 40% higher, as short-dated hedging picked up into the announcement; VVIX held flat near 94.9.</li> <li>The <strong>cash curve holds contango</strong> out to 21.88 at one year; SKEW eased slightly to 146.6, still elevated, and MOVE held near 83.7. <strong>SPX options imply a 0.80% move to today's close and 1.29% to Friday</strong>, a range spanning the Fed decision. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~75,730 (+0.13%) | ETHEREUM ~2,400 (+0.08%) | IBIT 43.11 (-3.64%) | ETHA 18.20 (-5.06%) | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto spot is little changed this morning, bitcoin near $75,730 and ether near $2,400, but <strong>Tuesday's Senate failure to advance the Clarity Act hit listed crypto names hard</strong>: <strong>Coinbase fell over 10%, Circle over 11%</strong> and Bitmine Immersion 8.4%, while miners and IBIT/ETHA also slid, an unusually sharp equity-only reaction to a spot-flat session.</li> <li>The failed cloture vote <strong>effectively shelves US crypto market-structure legislation for the rest of 2026</strong>, wires reported, after banks objected to stablecoin interest provisions; the setback follows years of industry lobbying and hundreds of millions in spend.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><strong>Brent crude settled near USD 109 on Tuesday</strong>, </strong>extending its September gain to almost 20%, after talks on a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor were reportedly postponed. Prices have eased this morning as some risk premium unwinds after the API reported a weekly rise in US crude and fuel stockpiles, while data showed flows through the Strait of Hormuz rising to their highest since June/July. However, the pickup is only partly offsetting lost export barrels following drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, for which there is still no restart timeline. The resulting squeeze on prompt supply has pushed Dated Brent above USD 130 per barrel as physical-market traders price an increased risk of near-term supply shortages.</li> <li><strong>Gold has moved back above USD 4,300</strong>, finding renewed demand below that level as traders conclude that a US rate hike today is largely priced in, while some profit-taking on short bond positions has also supported the rebound. Recent pressure has reflected a combination of rising oil prices, a now fully priced US rate hike, a stronger dollar and, not least, long-end bond yields reaching levels last seen in 2023. The coming days will show whether demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks is sufficient to prevent a deeper correction. In our view, a move back above USD 4,350 and not least USD 4,425 is needed to ease the current downside pressure.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US </strong><strong>treasury yields rose to new cycle highs </strong><strong>all across</strong><strong> the curve on Tuesday, but </strong><strong>treasuries rallied late in the day, sending yields lower late Tuesday and overnight on Wednesday. </strong>The benchmark 2-year treasury yield topped out at 4.686% before rolling over to 4.65%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield saw its first post-2007 peak of the cycle at just shy of 5.04% before easing back to below 4.99% by early Wednesday and ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, which is seen nearly certain to bring a 25-basis point rate hike to take the Federal funds target range, 3.75-4.00%.<strong> </strong></li> <li><strong>US high-yield </strong><strong>corporate </strong><strong>bonds are under strain </strong>amidst the general risk-off tone and the recent rush higher in US treasury yields. The Bloomberg measure of the high yield corporate spread to US treasuries we track rose 11 basis point to 276 basis points from very low levels, but it was the highest reading since the end of July.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Currencies traded very quietly ahead of the FOMC meeting late today</strong><strong>. </strong>The chief focus has been on USDJPY, as the JPY fizzled to the weak side once again and USDJPY crossed above 155.00 for the first time in over a week, posting a 155.49 local high in early Wednesday hours. The broader USD rally of recent days failed to find fresh fuel ahead of a key FOMC meeting today and the uncertainty of how the Warsh Fed delivers an almost certain rate hike today and how it positions the reasons for the policy move and other comments and concerns on the outlook for the economy and especially inflation after Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech highlighted inflation as the primary concern. US President Trump’s response to a rate hike, if any, will also garner considerable attention.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI-pocalypse moment: 6 stocks that could gain from AI security fears</h1> <p>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The AI trade just had an <strong>AI-pocalypse moment</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Over the weekend, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for the industry to slow the pace of advances in frontier AI models to give safety measures more time to catch up. His concerns received support from other prominent AI leaders, including Sam Altman and Elon Musk.</span></p> <p><span>Markets reacted quickly.</span></p> <p><span>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5% on Monday as investors questioned whether greater caution around AI development could eventually slow the enormous infrastructure spending boom.</span></p> <p><span>But one corner of technology moved sharply in the opposite direction.</span></p> <p><span>Zscaler jumped 16.5%, CrowdStrike 13.9%, Palo Alto Networks 13.1%, Okta 12% and Fortinet 9%. The First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF gained around 6%.</span></p> <p><span>The message from the market was interesting: if AI needs more guardrails, cybersecurity could become an increasingly important part of the AI value chain.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>Why cybersecurity could be the next layer of the AI trade</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The first phase of the AI boom was about <strong>building AI</strong>: chips, memory, data centres, networking and power.</span></p> <p><span>The next challenge is <strong>using AI inside real businesses — safely</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>There are two sides to the security problem. AI can make cyberattacks faster and cheaper by helping attackers automate phishing, find vulnerabilities and operate at greater scale. At the same time, businesses are giving AI agents access to emails, databases, applications and financial systems — and increasingly allowing them to take actions on their behalf.</span></p> <p><span>That creates some very practical questions: Who is this AI agent? What should it be allowed to access? What data can it see? And how do you stop it if something goes wrong?</span></p> <p><span>This is where cybersecurity becomes part of the AI infrastructure. Companies will need to verify identities, control access, protect networks and devices, secure sensitive data and monitor what AI agents are doing.</span></p> <p><span>Importantly, this opportunity does not necessarily disappear if development of the most advanced AI models slows. Companies can continue deploying the AI that already exists, while greater caution could mean <strong>more testing, monitoring and security around it</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>So rather than seeing cybersecurity as an alternative to the AI trade, investors may increasingly see it as an <strong>AI prerequisite</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>And different cybersecurity companies solve different parts of that problem. Here are six to watch.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>1. CrowdStrike: protecting the device</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Think of CrowdStrike as the <strong>security guard sitting on your laptop, server or other device</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Its software watches what is happening on these devices and looks for unusual behaviour that could signal malware, ransomware or an attacker. CrowdStrike has since expanded beyond devices into cloud and identity security.</span></p> <p><span>AI makes this more important in two ways. Attackers can use AI to move faster, while AI agents themselves can operate across company systems. CrowdStrike is building security that monitors what those agents are doing and can restrict them when something looks wrong.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> CrowdStrike's strength starts with the endpoint — the actual devices and systems where attacks often happen.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>2. Palo Alto Networks: the all-in-one security platform</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Palo Alto Networks is the <strong>broadest security platform</strong> on this list.</span></p> <p><span>It started with network firewalls but has expanded into cloud security, security operations and AI security. That means a large company can use Palo Alto to protect several different parts of its technology infrastructure rather than buying separate products from many vendors. Its AI security offering, for example, includes controls over which generative-AI applications employees can use and how company data is protected.</span></p> <p><span>This could matter as AI makes cybersecurity more complicated and companies look to simplify the number of security tools they use.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> Palo Alto is less a specialist and more a bet on companies consolidating cybersecurity spending with a few large platforms.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>3. Zscaler: deciding what you can access</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Zscaler solves a different problem: <strong>just because you are inside a company's network doesn't mean you should be trusted.</strong></span></p> <p><span>Its “zero trust” approach checks who or what is requesting access before connecting them to an application. Instead of opening the door to the whole corporate network, it gives access only to what is needed.</span></p> <p><span>That becomes particularly relevant with AI agents. A company might want an AI assistant to read certain documents, for example, without giving it access to payroll, customer information or every other corporate system. Zscaler is extending its platform specifically to control users, devices, workloads and AI agents in this way.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> Zscaler is essentially the <strong>traffic controller</strong> deciding which users and AI agents can connect to which applications.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>4. Okta: proving who — or what — you are</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Okta focuses on <strong>identity</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Most people have already interacted with this type of technology. When an employer asks you to log in, verify your identity and use two-factor authentication before accessing an application, identity-security software is helping decide whether you really are who you claim to be.</span></p> <p><span>AI creates a new challenge because companies may soon have thousands of AI agents acting on behalf of employees and applications. Those agents also need identities and rules determining what they are allowed to do.</span></p> <p><span>Okta is extending identity management beyond humans to these non-human identities.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> CrowdStrike asks whether the <strong>device is safe</strong>; Okta asks whether the <strong>person or AI agent should be trusted</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>5. Fortinet: protecting the network</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Fortinet's traditional strength is <strong>network security</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Its firewalls sit between corporate networks and the outside world, inspecting traffic and blocking threats. It also provides security for branches, data centres and cloud environments.</span></p> <p><span>AI means more applications, devices and machines communicating with each other — and potentially more malicious traffic moving through those networks.</span></p> <p><span>Fortinet therefore provides a more traditional cybersecurity exposure than some of the newer AI-security stories on this list.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> Fortinet is primarily about protecting the <strong>roads that digital traffic travels on</strong>, rather than proving someone's identity or protecting an individual device.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>6. Cloudflare: protecting the internet-facing application</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Cloudflare sits between websites and applications and the wider internet.</span></p> <p><span>If a business has an app that customers use online, Cloudflare can help keep it available, speed it up and protect it from attacks.</span></p> <p><span>AI adds another layer. Companies are increasingly connecting applications to AI models and allowing AI agents to interact with other software. Cloudflare is building tools to control those connections, prevent sensitive data from leaking into AI models and protect AI applications against attacks such as prompt injection.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Why it is different:</span></strong><span> Cloudflare is particularly exposed to securing the <strong>connections between internet applications, AI models and AI agents</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>The simplest way to think about the six</span></strong></h3> <p><span>They are not all solving the same cybersecurity problem.</span></p> <p><strong><span>CrowdStrike protects the device. Okta verifies the identity. Zscaler controls access. Fortinet protects the network. Cloudflare protects internet-facing applications and AI traffic. Palo Alto tries to bring many of those security functions together on one platform.</span></strong></p> <p><span>That distinction matters for investors. AI could expand the cybersecurity market, but it does not necessarily mean every cybersecurity company benefits equally.</span></p> <p><span>The question is which security problems become more important as AI moves from something employees occasionally use to something that can access company data and take actions on their behalf.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span>Risks: the market may have moved too quickly</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The biggest risk is that investors have already priced in much of the opportunity.</span></p> <p><span>Several cybersecurity stocks jumped more than 10% in a single session, and some have already delivered substantial gains this year. Parts of the rally were already reversing the following day.</span></p> <p><span>More AI risk also does not automatically mean more cybersecurity revenue. Companies could consolidate vendors, AI-security features could become bundled into existing products, or enterprise AI deployments could slow enough to delay new security spending.</span></p> <p><span>Higher bond yields are another risk for richly valued growth stocks.</span></p> <p><span>Ultimately, the thesis needs to show up in the numbers.</span></p> <p><span>If AI adoption continues to grow but cybersecurity revenue, recurring contracts and earnings estimates do not accelerate with it, the investment case becomes much harder to justify.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span>What investors should watch next</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The AI-pocalypse may have given cybersecurity its moment in the spotlight.</span></p> <p><span>But the next phase will be decided by earnings rather than headlines.</span></p> <p><span>Watch whether AI security starts generating measurable recurring revenue, whether customers consolidate more spending onto the largest platforms and whether earnings estimates begin moving higher.</span></p> <p><span>The AI boom has already created enormous demand for the infrastructure needed to <strong>build AI</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The next opportunity could be in the companies helping businesses <strong>use it safely</strong>.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>Thematic</span> <span>All ideas</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 16 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span><strong><span>A</span><span data-ccp-char>sia Market Quick Take – 16 </span><span data-ccp-char>September,</span><span data-ccp-char> 202</span><span data-ccp-char>6</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="133350575" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{184}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">Saudi cancels September shipments after East-West pipeline shuts</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >Coinbase and Circle fell more than 10% after Clarity Act <span data-ccp-char>failed to</span><span data-ccp-char> clear Senate</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >Dollar firms into tonight’s FOMC meeting, with a 25bp hike <span data-ccp-char>largely priced</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >US 10-year <span data-ccp-char>Treasuries </span><span data-ccp-char>at 2007 highs</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >WTI up 4.4%, highest close since mid-May</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="529988122" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{196}"><span data-contrast="auto">------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="698609580" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{198}"></p> <p paraid="722891893" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{202}"><span data-contrast="none"><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not </span><span data-ccp-char>indicate</span><span data-ccp-char> future performance.</span></em></span><span data-contrast="none"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="1951180583" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{204}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong><span>Macro:</span><span data-ccp-char></span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Saudi Arabia cancelled some September shipments after drone attacks shut its East-West pipeline, with no restart timeline amid renewed Houthi strikes. In Libya, oil output was hit by field and station shutdowns due to protests.</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"> Russia struck Kyiv fuel stations and Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, despite Trump’s claim of a mutual halt on energy attacks.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none"></span><span><strong><span>The UK jobless rate held at 4.9% in the three months to July 2026, defying forecasts of 5.0%.</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > Unemployment rose slightly to 1.78 million, while employment increased by 66,000 to 34.48 million, driven by more full-time jobs. The inactivity rate edged down to 20.9%.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span><strong><span>Germany’s wholesale prices rose 6.8% year-on-year </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >in August 2026, up from 5.3% and the fastest since February 2023, driven by higher energy and raw material costs. Mineral oil products jumped 36.1% and metals 27.4%, while several food categories fell. Month-on-month, prices climbed 0.9%, the quickest in four months and above expectations.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Japan’s exports jumped 19.3% year-on-year to JPY 10,048.4 billion in August 2026</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, beating forecasts of 18.2%, marking a 12th month of growth on a weaker yen and strong AI-chip demand, despite Middle East-related supply chain risks.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Japan’s core machinery orders fell 3.7% m/m to JPY 1,016.9 billion in July 2026</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, the fourth drop this year and worse than the expected 2.8% decline, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders weaker. Year-on-year, orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% forecast and down from 16.9%.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September 2026</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" > from 20.6 in August, below expectations of 14.75, signaling softer activity. New orders were flat, shipments slipped, supply conditions worsened, and price pressures rose, but firms stayed optimistic, with the future conditions index at 29.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1132807521" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{208}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>US —</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> US equities fell on Tuesday as elevated oil prices pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs, dampening risk appetite. The S&P 500 closed down 0.45% at 7,585.73, the Dow fell 0.63% to 52,093.11, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.65% to 28,937.84. Among Magnificent Seven names, Alphabet and Microsoft led losses, each down over 1% in premarket. <strong><span data-contrast="auto">The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, with the measure falling short in a 50-49 vote. Following the outcome, Coinbase shares declined 10%, while Circle Internet dropped 11%.</span></strong></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span data-contrast="auto"></span></strong></span><span><strong><span>EU —</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > European equities fell on Tuesday, weighed by rising bond yields and elevated oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.3% to 634.18, its lowest close since June 12, with banks leading the decline. The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 10,658.13, led lower by HSBC (-2.2%) and London Stock Exchange Group (-3.2%). The DAX declined 0.2% to 25,402.28, with Zalando the largest faller at -3.7%. LVMH dropped 2.6%, losing its position as France's most valuable company and exiting Europe's top 10 by market cap. Lanxess fell 5.9% in the Stoxx 600. Grupa Kety was the top riser, up 9.9% after announcing a €645 million acquisition.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > Asian equities are broadly steady this morning as markets await the Fed decision, with the MSCI Asia index up 0.1%. Hang Seng fell 1.0% on Tuesday to 24,667.24, its lowest close since July 17, led by HSBC (-3.2%) and CATL (-6.0%), with all sectors declining. The Nikkei 225 closed virtually flat on Tuesday at 63,484.10, as AI-related rebounds offset pressure from elevated oil and BOJ rate decision caution ahead of Friday's meeting; the index is down 0.07% this morning at 63,415.20. The Kospi is up 0.10% this morning at 6,634.09, recovering from a 0.9% decline on Tuesday driven by semiconductor weakness — SK Hynix and Samsung fell over 4% on Monday on AI slowdown concerns. Guangzhou Auto surged 16% in Hong Kong on Monday after a joint asset deal with FAW Group. Chinese AI chip stocks rallied on Tuesday after Beijing unveiled a five-year electronics industry plan supporting semiconductors and advanced computing.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="176230729" paraeid="{25d43cd9-566a-4c10-989f-1fab12722d67}{90}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Events this week:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335551550':1,'335551620':1,'335559685':0,'335559737':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none">Wednesday: FOMC rate decision</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none"></span>Thursday: BOE rate decision</li> <li>Friday: BOJ rate decision</li> </ul> <p paraid="3683132" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{212}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>USD </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">is modestly firmer ahead of tonight’s Fed decision, with a 25bp hike <span data-ccp-char>almost fully</span><span data-ccp-char> priced and TD flagging scope for a knee</span></span><span>‑</span><span data-contrast="none">jerk USD dip on an “as</span><span>‑</span><span data-contrast="none">expected” outcome.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" > under pressure: The pair fell below its 100-day moving average at 1.1556 on Monday and has held below it since, with the 55-DMA at 1.1521 acting as near-term support. A close below that level opens the path toward 1.14.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > touched as high as 155.43 overnight. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the recent coordinated yen intervention as "nominal" and framed a stronger yen as beneficial for US exports.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span>The PBOC strengthened the yuan fixing for a fifth consecutive day, reportedly aiming to offset dollar gains ahead of an expected Trump-Xi summit later this month. </span><strong><span data-contrast="auto">USDCNY </span></strong><span data-contrast="auto" >is flat on the day at 6.7117.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span><strong><span>GBP</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > volatility measures are near record lows, which some traders flag as a warning sign of complacency ahead of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first Budget.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1869772166" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{214}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> settled around $109/bbl on Tuesday, extending September gains to nearly 20%, after talks to establish a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly postponed. WTI settled up 4.4% on Tuesday at its highest level since mid-May. This morning, Brent is slightly lower at $108.08 (-0.62%) and WTI at $105.12 (-0.67%) as some risk premium is pared back.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span><strong><span>Gold</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > spot is at $4,283.48/oz, down 0.20% this morning, as a stronger dollar and rising real yields weigh on the precious metal. The gold-oil divergence has widened notably this month — Brent's surge has been accompanied by softer gold, higher yields, and a firmer dollar, echoing cross-asset dynamics seen during the early stages of the Iran conflict in March.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="564777879" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{216}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto">The <strong><span data-contrast="auto">10-year Treasury yield</span></strong><span data-contrast="auto"> rose as high as 5.04% on Tuesday before closing at 5.00%, the highest level since 2007. This morning the 10-year is at 4.99%, with the 30-year at 5.36%. The move is driven by a combination of surging oil prices, persistent inflation, swelling fiscal deficits, and positioning ahead of today's expected Fed rate hike.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span>The 5s30s spread widened to 53.6bps from 52.3bps at the prior close, with the long end underperforming following the weak 20-year auction. The 2-year yield stands at 4.65%, with bond traders positioned in extreme short territory ahead of the Fed, betting the selloff continues.</li> <li><span>The global bond selloff is broadening. The <strong><span data-contrast="auto">German 10-year Bund yield</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> is at 3.54% and the </span><strong><span data-contrast="auto">Japanese 10-year JGB yield</span></strong><span data-contrast="auto" > is at 3.05%, both at multi-year highs. JGB futures fell 34 ticks overnight, tracking US Treasuries lower, with additional pressure from BOJ rate decision uncertainty ahead of Friday.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="100520991" paraeid="{0ea8fafe-3a1c-4d4c-bdbe-c84410dea08d}{184}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" >For a global look at markets – go to </span><span ><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span><span data-contrast="none" >.<strong><span data-contrast="none"> </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" > </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <p paraid="2104213133" paraeid="{24955d3a-2082-4881-aa31-ecac8c690b13}{224}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em></span><span ></span><span ><em><span data-contrast="none">The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></span><span ></span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Chips break, software catches - Options Brief - 15 September 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The chip complex lost 5.9% and the index lost half a percent. The interesting part is what the option market did about Friday overnight.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.10 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.09) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.89</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Friday’s expiry refused to decay.</strong> The <strong>18 September</strong> contract prices <strong>100.90 points</strong>, or <strong>1.32%</strong>, against <strong>101.65</strong> quoted yesterday morning. One session has come off the clock, so time alone would have left roughly <strong>91</strong>. About <strong>10 points</strong> of volatility premium went in overnight.</li> <li><strong>The selling was narrow, not broad.</strong> A semiconductor gauge fell <strong>5.9%</strong> and Nvidia <strong>3.4%</strong>, while software rose <strong>5.04%</strong> and healthcare <strong>1.45%</strong>. The S&P 500 gave up <strong>0.48%</strong> and its equal-weighted version added <strong>0.04%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>One session has used the week’s volatility budget.</strong> The VIX closed <strong>17.10</strong>, above the <strong>16.96</strong> that Friday’s option chain set as the top of its range for the whole week.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 15 September 2026, approx. 07:18 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>A weekend essay from the head of Anthropic urging a slower pace of frontier artificial intelligence work, backed publicly by the heads of OpenAI and xAI, hit chipmakers on Monday while the US 10-year Treasury yield cleared <strong>5.02%</strong> for its highest reading since 2007. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---ai-warning-hits-chips-as-ten-year-tops-5-before-fed---15-september-2026-15092026" target="_blank">Market Quick Take – AI warning hits chips as ten-year tops 5% before Fed, 15 September 2026</a>, and more in Saxo’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank">macro coverage</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot, Monday 14 September 2026 close</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Monday 14 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,619.98</strong>, down 0.48%. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,127.16</strong>, down 0.82%. Dow <strong>52,426.25</strong>, down 0.29%. Corning fell <strong>13.7%</strong> on artificial intelligence concerns and a <strong>USD 2bn</strong> share sale, and Bank of America <strong>5.1%</strong> after warning on trading revenue, while CrowdStrike gained <strong>13.8%</strong>.</li> <li><strong >Europe (Monday 14 September close):</strong><span > Stoxx 600 </span><strong >636.00</strong><span >, down 0.49%, with its technology group </span><strong >2.1%</strong><span > lower. Soitec lost </span><strong >12.6%</strong><span > and Infineon </span><strong >7.7%</strong><span >. Capgemini rose </span><strong >6.6%</strong><span > and GSK 4.7% after lung cancer trial results.</span></li> <li><strong >Asia (Tuesday 15 September session):</strong><span > the Nikkei 225 slipped </span><strong >0.1%</strong><span >, the Kospi fell </span><strong >1.2%</strong><span > and the Hang Seng </span><strong >0.4%</strong><span >. SoftBank rebounded almost </span><strong >8.0%</strong><span > after Monday’s </span><strong >10.7%</strong><span > fall.</span></li> <li><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent trades near </span><strong >USD 107.50</strong><span > after spiking towards </span><strong >USD 110</strong><span > on Monday, with the Saudi East-West pipeline expected to stay shut for weeks. Gold sits near </span><strong >USD 4,300</strong><span > after touching </span><strong >USD 4,252</strong><span >, and copper near </span><strong >USD 6.36</strong><span >. The US 2-year yield trades near </span><strong >4.68%</strong><span >. EURUSD 1.1535, USDJPY 154.79. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a><span > for costs and applicable charges.</span></li> <li><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Transitioning, VIX 17.10, with the S&P 500 sitting 0.13% from its 50-day moving average and 20-day realised volatility at 8.9% and falling.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 15 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 14 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow:</strong> confirmed-opening premium across the tape reached <strong>USD 2.79bn</strong> and split <strong>75.3%</strong> to calls, but twenty-eight of the thirty largest lines crossed at mid in deep in-the-money or paired form. That is rolling and financing rather than a view. The one clean purchase of the session was long-dated downside in a single carmaker at <strong>USD 21.6m</strong>, lifted on the offer. In our view the size says institutions were repositioning before the decision rather than choosing a side.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow:</strong> semiconductor names carried <strong>USD 319.1m</strong> with <strong>57.2%</strong> in calls, and the composition matters more than the split. The upside went into the leaders as matched November strike pairs, while the downside went into the sector basket rather than the single names. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 15 September 2026, approx. 07:18 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX spot <strong>17.10</strong> (up 7.95%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>12.02</strong> (down 7.40%) · VIX9D <strong>16.91</strong> (up 16.86%), the move sits in the event window rather than in today</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>19.28</strong> (up 3.66%) · VIX6M <strong>20.71</strong> (up 1.57%) · VIX1Y <strong>21.97</strong> (up 1.01%), the cash curve holds contango across its length</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month VIX futures <strong>16.89</strong> by put-call parity on the 16 September expiry, a <strong>0.21</strong> point discount to spot against a <strong>0.82</strong> point premium yesterday. The continuous series reads 18.550, a level belonging to the October contract after the roll, so no session comparison is drawn from it</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>18.505</strong> by the same method, front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.913</strong> against 0.906 yesterday</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>152.09</strong> (down 1.55%), still far above the 100 to 120 neutral zone</li> <li>COR3M <strong>12.03</strong> (up 7.31%), implied correlation rose on a session of violent single-name moves</li> <li>DSPX <strong>31.69</strong> (up 3.63%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.839, index put/call 0.948. The tail index rose 13.24% to <strong>17.05</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Cross-asset volatility</h4> <ul> <li>OVX <strong>59.46</strong> (up 0.92%), oil volatility barely moved while crude held its gains</li> <li>GVZ <strong>26.54</strong> (up 3.35%) · VXSLV <strong>46.25</strong> (up 3.33%) · MOVE <strong>83.90</strong> (up 2.06%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>22.05</strong> (up 4.90%) · RVX <strong>20.95</strong> (up 4.85%) · VXD <strong>15.30</strong> (up 4.94%) · VVIX <strong>94.89</strong> (up 3.95%). Bond fund volatility rose 10.22% to <strong>13.48</strong></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 15 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market priced for this week around Friday’s close, and how much of it Monday used.</p> <p><strong></strong></p> <p><em>Expected move to the 18 September expiry, drawn around the Friday 11 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Volatility uses the 16 September expiry, the next one listed. Read from the option chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity, not a forecast. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <ul> <li><em><strong>Equities spent about a third of their band, volatility spent all of it.</strong></em> The S&P 500 used <strong>36%</strong> of its <strong>101.65 point</strong> range in one session and the Nasdaq 100 fund <strong>43%</strong>, while the VIX has already travelled <strong>113%</strong> of the <strong>1.12 point</strong> move the chain priced for the full week. Gold used <strong>57%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>56%</strong>, both wider bands to begin with.</li> <li><em><strong>Three sessions remain and the equity band is still mostly unspent.</strong></em> In our view a market that has kept two thirds of its S&P 500 range intact through a <strong>5.9%</strong> semiconductor drawdown may be saying the damage stayed inside the index rather than moving it. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Session implied move.</strong></em> Today’s expiry prices <strong>38.65 points</strong>, or <strong>0.51%</strong>, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast, with the German ZEW survey the only scheduled release inside the window and the Federal Reserve one session away. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>Event implied range.</strong></em> The <strong>18 September</strong> expiry carried <strong>101.65 points</strong> yesterday morning and prices <strong>100.90</strong> now, where flat volatility and one fewer session would have left about <strong>91</strong>. In our assessment paying to hold a window flat while the clock runs against it appears to be the clearest statement the option market made overnight.</li> <li><em><strong>Term-structure read.</strong></em> Spot volatility rose <strong>1.26</strong> points while the contract expiring tomorrow rose <strong>0.23</strong>, turning a <strong>0.82</strong> point premium into a <strong>0.21</strong> point discount. In our view a front contract that declines to follow spot upward may point to a market treating Monday’s move as concentrated damage rather than the start of something broader.</li> <li><em><strong>Correlation and dispersion read.</strong></em> Implied dispersion rose <strong>3.63%</strong> to <strong>31.69</strong> and three-month implied correlation <strong>7.31%</strong> to <strong>12.03</strong>, which is unusual company for the two measures. In our assessment paying up for both at once may reflect a session where single names moved violently and moved together, one sector against another, rather than scattering.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>Germany publishes the September ZEW survey at <strong>11:00 CET</strong>. G20 energy ministers continue in Houston through Wednesday. The US Senate holds a cloture vote on digital asset market structure legislation. The Federal Reserve decides tomorrow, with rate markets pricing roughly a <strong>92%</strong> chance of a <strong>25 basis point</strong> increase, and quad witching falls on Friday inside the same expiry. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our assessment, Monday moved a great deal of money without moving the index much, and the option market answered by paying up for the rest of the week rather than for today. The pairing of a <strong>0.51%</strong> same-day range with a Friday window that held <strong>100.90 points</strong> through a full session of decay suggests the market may have decided the risk sits at the Wednesday decision and the Friday expiry, not in the hours in front of it, though that reading could change on a single headline and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/vol-collapses-skew-climbs---options-brief---14-september-2026-14092026" data-id="27360F37E44E438FAE63E165E09E46CD" data-type="Article">Vol collapses skew climbs - Options Brief - 14 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/week-overruns-one-day-reprices---options-brief---11-september-2026-11092026" data-id="6B68EE2847784F2B8D1ADACDC0D772B2" data-type="Article">Week overruns one day reprices - Options Brief - 11 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-bites-one-name-lifts---options-brief---10-september-2026-10092026" data-id="7487205D4EA84FB990529B5DDA4B3884" data-type="Article">Oil bites one name lifts - Options Brief - 10 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-day-drains-friday-fills---options-brief---9-september-2026-09092026" data-id="2710AA396670481E86ECD99921F4DED0" data-type="Article">Front day drains Friday fills - Options Brief - 9 September 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---ai-warning-hits-chips-as-ten-year-tops-5-before-fed---15-september-2026-15092026" data-id="3B7FD82D761E4335B157C304B1044B1E" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - AI warning hits chips as ten-year tops 5 before Fed - 15 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-up-chips-down-fed-ahead---14-september-2026-14092026" data-id="8986171792ED4EC5A0E6023FF9B41EAA" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil up chips down Fed ahead - 14 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The AI race hits the brakes: what changes for investors?</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Slower frontier development could shift AI spending</strong> from training bigger models towards deploying, securing and using existing ones.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Hardware faces the biggest question</strong> because valuations assume computing demand keeps expanding quickly.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Tougher safety requirements could unintentionally strengthen today’s largest AI laboratories</strong> by raising the cost of competing.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>For the past few years, the artificial intelligence race has followed a simple rule: bigger models, more computing power, faster development. Now some of the people leading that race are asking whether everyone should slow down.</span></p> <p><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier" target="_blank">Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has called for companies to pace improvements in frontier AI capabilities</a> so safety systems have time to catch up. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/" target="_blank">OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki says no laboratory has solved safety well enough</a> to keep scaling at maximum speed indefinitely.</span></p> <p><span>The obvious question is whether this threatens the AI boom. The more interesting answer is that it may simply change where the money goes.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Slower models, not slower AI</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The key distinction is between building the next frontier model and using the models we already have.</span></p> <p><span>Amodei is not proposing that AI development stops. His idea of “pacing” means allowing more time for testing, monitoring and safeguards before capabilities move another large step forward. OpenAI has already temporarily slowed scaling when one upcoming model approached critical cybersecurity capabilities.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because AI spending extends far beyond training.</span></p> <p><span>Companies need computing power to run models, a process known as inference. Businesses need software to integrate them into workflows. They need cybersecurity to control them, data systems to feed them information and applications that turn intelligence into something customers will actually pay for.</span></p> <p><span>In simple terms, the AI value chain may move from:</span></p> <p><strong><span>training → inference → applications → security → deployment</span></strong></p> <p><span>A slower first step does not necessarily shrink everything that follows. </span><span >In fact, businesses have barely begun extracting value from the capabilities already available. The investment question could therefore shift from “how quickly can we build a smarter model?” towards “how much economic value can we create from the models we already have?” For investors, that may be the healthier question.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The picks-and-shovels trade gets tested</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first phase of the AI boom rewarded the companies supplying scarce computing power. </span><span >Graphics processing units, or GPUs, advanced memory, networking equipment, data centres and electricity all benefited from one powerful assumption: frontier AI would keep requiring substantially more computing power.</span></p> <p><span>A slower frontier challenges the simplest version of that story. </span><span >If the next generation of models arrives later, some training clusters could be delayed. That matters most for businesses whose growth expectations depend on capital spending continuing to accelerate almost automatically.</span></p> <p><span>But training demand and AI demand are not the same thing. </span><span >Existing models still require enormous amounts of computing power every time people use them. AI agents, enterprise adoption and scientific applications could increase inference demand even if new frontier models arrive less frequently.</span></p> <p><span>This is why Monday’s market reaction may be more useful as a warning than as a verdict. Hardware companies face a new question about the pace of demand, while software and cybersecurity could gain more attention if the industry spends longer commercialising, monitoring and protecting existing AI systems. </span></p> <p><span>The AI trade may be becoming less about one bottleneck and more about the entire stack.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Safety can become a moat</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There is another, less obvious consequence. </span><span >Slowing development sounds like a constraint on OpenAI and Anthropic. It could also strengthen their competitive position.</span></p> <p><span>Imagine that developing frontier AI increasingly requires independent safety evaluators, sophisticated monitoring, heavily secured infrastructure and extensive testing before a model can be released.</span></p> <p><span>Those measures cost money. </span><span >OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and other well-funded laboratories can probably afford them. A smaller challenger may struggle. </span><span >That creates an uncomfortable tension. Rules designed to make AI safer could also raise barriers to entry and make today’s leaders harder to challenge.</span></p> <p><span>Then there is China. US laboratories can voluntarily pace development, but they cannot guarantee competitors elsewhere will do the same. Amodei acknowledges this directly, arguing that any slowdown must consider the technological gap between the United States and China.</span></p> <p><span>That makes a permanent global pause difficult. Competitive pressure has not disappeared just because the safety debate has become louder.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The risks are on both sides</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Investors should avoid extrapolating Monday’s sell-off too far. Frontier laboratories are discussing slowing the pace of capability advances, not abandoning AI. OpenAI still aims to build automated AI researchers, while Anthropic continues to argue that advanced AI could generate enormous economic and scientific benefits.</span></p> <p><span>The opposite risk also matters. If voluntary restraint proves impossible because competitors keep pushing ahead, the current debate may lead mainly to more testing and regulation rather than materially slower computing demand.</span></p> <p><span>The early signs to watch are therefore practical: delays to major training programmes, lower capital-spending plans from hyperscalers, slower orders for advanced chips, or evidence that spending is rotating towards inference, software and security.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Separate training from usage.</span></strong><span> Slower frontier development does not automatically mean lower demand for every part of the AI ecosystem.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch capital spending.</span></strong><span> Hyperscaler budgets provide a better demand signal than headlines about whether one model launch is delayed.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Follow where revenue appears.</span></strong><span> Growing inference and software revenues would suggest AI is shifting from infrastructure build-out towards commercial use.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Mind concentration.</span></strong><span> A portfolio heavily exposed to one part of the AI stack becomes more sensitive when the industry’s spending priorities change.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From bigger to better</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For several years, the AI race has largely been measured by one question: who can build the most powerful model next? </span><span >Investors may increasingly need to ask another: who can make the most money from the intelligence we already have?</span></p> <p><span>A slower frontier would challenge the simplest version of the AI trade, where ever-larger models automatically require ever-more chips, power and data centres. But it would not necessarily weaken AI itself. It could move the industry’s centre of gravity from creating intelligence towards deploying, securing and monetising it.</span></p> <p><span>The first AI race was about building the biggest brain. The next may be about turning that brain into a sustainable business.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - AI warning hits chips as ten-year tops 5% before Fed - 15 September 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts </strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A call to slow AI development and a rate increase in prospect set a cautious tone </li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities fell on AI and rate fears, while Asia traded mixed as technology shares attempted a rebound.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Equity volatility firmed into the Fed window while one-day pricing stayed notably calm</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot slipped while exchange and stablecoin shares jumped before a Senate vote</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Brent holds below USD 110 for a fourth day as gold stages a modest rebound</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: New post GFC high in 10-year US Treasury yield. Germany-France 10-year yield spread hits post Eurozone sovereign debt crisis high.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD firmer as wobbly risk sentiment and new post-GFC highs in some US treasury yields weigh</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Fed rate hike imminent:</strong> Markets are pricing in a ~92% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both revised their calls to include a September hike following last week's hotter-than-expected August CPI print (core CPI +0.3% m/m).</li> <li><strong>The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007 early Tuesday, just clearing the late 2023 high near 5.02%</strong>, as inflation concerns collided with rising government and corporate borrowing needs. Higher yields risk weighing on growth and richly valued equities, recently prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to boost bond buybacks and urge Japan to limit Treasury sales.</li> <li><strong>Oil surge on Middle East escalation:</strong> Brent crude topped $105–$108 intraday on Monday after Yemen's Houthis launched a large-scale ballistic missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Air Base. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shut last week following drone attacks from Iraq, remains a key supply risk. Trump later posted but not confirmed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt strikes on energy targets.</li> <li><strong>A call from leading AI developers to slow the pace of frontier model work</strong> rattled risk appetite on Monday. The Anthropic chief executive published a weekend essay urging independent monitoring of advanced models alongside industry and global regulation, and the heads of OpenAI and xAI both said they agreed. The response was concentrated rather than broad: <strong>semiconductor and AI-linked shares bore almost all of the selling</strong> while cybersecurity names rallied, and the move carried from the US into Seoul, Tokyo and continental Europe.</li> <li><strong>Trump-Xi summit:</strong> A Trump-Xi meeting is expected around September 24. Goldman Sachs survey data suggests most investors view the summit as "largely symbolic," with limited expectations for material deliverables on trade or currency.</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0900 – Germany Sept ZEW Survey</li> </ul> <p>G20 energy ministers meet in Houston (through Wednesday)</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Trip.com</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Lennar</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Carnival Corporation, Next</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.8% as calls to slow AI development hit chipmakers while higher oil prices pushed bond yields higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 5.9%, with Nvidia down 3.4%, while Corning plunged 13.7% as AI concerns compounded dilution fears from its $2 billion share-sale programme. Bank of America fell 5.1% after warning on investment-banking and trading revenue, while CrowdStrike jumped 13.8% as investors rotated toward cybersecurity. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5%, the DAX lost 0.5%, and the CAC 40 dropped 0.8%, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.4% as defensive shares provided support. Technology fell 2.1% as the global AI selloff spread to Europe, with Soitec sliding 12.6% and Infineon losing 7.7%. The rotation worked in the opposite direction for software and healthcare: Capgemini jumped 6.6%, while GSK gained 4.7% after positive lung-cancer trial results. Rising oil prices also pushed Germany’s 10-year government bond yield to its highest since 2009 ahead of a busy central-bank week.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities traded mixed on Tuesday as markets tried to stabilise after Monday’s sharp AI selloff. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1%, the Kospi fell 1.2%, and the Hang Seng edged 0.4% lower, with higher oil prices and bond yields keeping investors cautious. SoftBank rebounded almost 8.0% after Monday’s 10.7% plunge as investors reassessed the impact of a potential slowdown in AI development, while SK Hynix was broadly flat after leading Korea’s previous-session decline. Kioxia was also in focus after reports it was considering a US depositary-share listing that could raise at least $10 billion.</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.10 | VIX FUTURES: 18.55 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (152.09) | MOVE: 83.90 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~07:26 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Semiconductor selling on the AI slowdown call lifted equity volatility: <strong>VIX rose 7.95% to 17.10</strong> and <strong>VXN 4.90% to 22.05</strong>. The move is concentrated in the event window rather than today: <strong>VIX9D jumped 16.86% to 16.91</strong> while <strong>VIX1D fell 7.40% to 12.02</strong>, with VVIX up 3.95% to 94.89.</li> <li><strong>The cash curve holds contango</strong> out to 21.97 at one year, SKEW eased 1.55% to 152.09 and MOVE rose 2.06% to 83.90. SPX options imply <strong>0.51% today and 1.32% to Friday</strong>, the weekly span containing Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~77,360 (-1.04%) | ETHEREUM ~2,480 (-1.40%) | IBIT 44.74 (+2.22%) | ETHA 19.17 (+0.05%) | AS OF ~07:17 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto spot has turned lower this morning, the majors down roughly 1% to 1.7% as the dollar firmed and rate-increase pricing hardened. Monday's listed session split sharply: <strong>Coinbase rose 9.24% and Circle 7.53%</strong>, while the AI-exposed miners fell with the chip complex, <strong>Cipher down 7.21%</strong> and Marathon 4.01%.</li> <li><strong>The US Senate holds a cloture vote today on the CLARITY Act</strong>, the digital asset market structure bill, with 60 votes needed to open formal debate. The White House agreed new ethics language days beforehand, barring public officials from issuing digital assets while in office.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> trades higher as the Saudi pipeline shutdown intensifies supply concerns, hovering near USD 107.50 in early trading after briefly spiking towards USD 110 on Monday - a level that has now offered resistance for three consecutive sessions. The East-West pipeline is expected to remain out of service for several weeks, and without a pickup in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, its closure will further exacerbate an already tight global supply situation. Refined products remain particularly exposed, with some trading at or near record levels amid Middle East refinery shut-ins and Russian export curbs.</li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> trades near USD 4,300 after touching USD 4,252 on Monday, when technical selling briefly pushed the metal below USD 4,300. The pressure reflects a combination of rising oil prices, a US rate hike on Wednesday being almost fully priced in, a stronger dollar and, not least, long-end bond yields reaching levels last seen in 2023. Gold's ability to withstand these headwinds points to continued demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks. A move back above USD 4,440 would in our opinion be needed to ease the current downside pressure/focus.</li> <li><strong>Copper</strong> extended its decline below the 50-day moving average on Monday, touching USD 6.36 in New York and USD 14,000 in London. The metal faced many of the same macro headwinds weighing on precious metals, while fresh deliveries into LME warehouses helped loosen nearby spreads. Calls from leading AI developers to slow the development of frontier models may also have delivered a psychological - though, in our view, temporary - setback, given concerns that slower AI investment could temper the pace of data-centre-related copper demand</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries rose again Monday and further still in early Tuesday trading, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield clearing the late 2023 high just below 5.02% in early European hours Tuesday. Sharply higher oil prices are weighing, together with concerns that the US Treasury is grappling with a dire debt outlook driven by large deficits. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark two-year yield rose another five basis points and trades at a new cycle high since 2024 near 4.68%.</strong></li> <li><strong>Eurozone bond yields have risen </strong>in line with the rise in US treasury yields as sharply higher energy prices (both oil and gas) weigh. But<strong> Monday saw a remarkable yield curve flattening suggesting that higher front-end yields may crimp the growth outlook </strong>as the benchmark German 2-year Schatz yield rose as much as thirteen basis points intraday before closing up only about seven basis points while the benchmark 30-year BUXL yield fell four basis points to 3.86%.<strong> As well, the Germany-France yield spread is in focus as the 10-year spread widened to as high as 98 basis points on Monday</strong>, far beyond the highest daily close of 88 basis points seen since the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis of 2010-12. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar firmed Monday as some measures of the broader US dollar are now some 1% higher from last week’s lowest levels. </strong>Weak global risk sentiment and higher US treasury yields are likely factors supporting the greenback as <strong>USDJPY </strong>continued to squeeze back higher, trading just below the key 155.00 level early Tuesday after touching that level intraday on Monday. <strong>EURUSD </strong>slipped below local range support near 1.1570, trading as low as 1.1523 Monday before finding support<strong>.</strong></li> <li>The <strong>Swedish krona</strong> remains one of the G10’s weakest currencies as European growth concerns weigh. <strong>USDSEK</strong> is trading just below the well-defined 9.80-9.85 resistance area that has capped the range since early 2025. </li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Bond yields at 5%: Questions investors should ask now</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>A 5% Treasury yield changes the risk-return trade-off.</span></strong><span> High-quality bonds may now provide enough income to play a larger role for investors focused on income, capital preservation or nearer-term financial goals.</span></li> <li><strong><span>But 5% is a nominal yield.</span></strong><span> Inflation, taxes and, for non-US investors, currency movements can materially change the return investors actually experience.</span></li> <li><strong><span>This is not simply a choice between bonds and equities.</span></strong><span> Time horizon, required return and tolerance for losses should determine the mix, while other diversifiers can also matter when stocks and bonds fall together.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% on 14 September, the first time since October 2023. Higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy and concerns around US government borrowing have all contributed to the rise.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, equities have faced fresh volatility as calls from leading AI executives to slow the pace of AI development triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks.</span></p> <p><span>Together, these developments are reviving an important portfolio discussion: what role should bonds play when high-quality government debt offers yields around 5%?</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>1. What pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 5%?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>There is no single driver.</span></p> <p><span>Higher energy prices have revived inflation concerns, while resilient economic activity and stronger inflation data have increased expectations that US interest rates may need to remain restrictive. August consumer inflation accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year.</span></p> <p><span>Investors are also being asked to absorb substantial amounts of new debt. Large US fiscal deficits continue to increase Treasury borrowing, while the AI investment boom is adding another source of supply. Technology companies and other borrowers are issuing significant amounts of debt to finance data centres, power infrastructure and AI-related investment. </span></p> <p><span>This means today's yield move is about more than the next Federal Reserve decision. Inflation, fiscal borrowing and a growing demand for capital are all competing for investors' money.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>2. Could bond yields rise further?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Yes. Five percent is an important psychological level, but it is not a ceiling.</span></p> <p><span>Yields could move higher if inflation remains persistent, oil prices stay elevated, growth remains resilient, the Federal Reserve tightens further or investors demand greater compensation for absorbing heavy government and corporate debt issuance.</span></p> <p><span>Equally, weaker economic growth or a more convincing moderation in inflation could eventually pull yields lower.</span></p> <p><span>Yields around 5% change the relative return available from high-quality bonds and therefore provide a useful point at which to reassess the trade-offs between fixed income, equities and other assets.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>3. Does a 5% yield mean investors will earn 5% every year?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Not necessarily.</span></p> <p><span>A bond's quoted yield provides an indication of the annualised return available under certain assumptions, including holding the bond to maturity and receiving the promised payments.</span></p> <p><span>But its market price can fluctuate considerably before then.</span></p> <p><span>If an investor buys a bond when yields are 5% and yields subsequently rise to 5.5%, the existing bond becomes less valuable and its price falls. An investor who has to sell before maturity could therefore realise a loss.</span></p> <p><span>If yields fall, the reverse occurs and the bond's price could rise.</span></p> <p><span>So 5% should not be interpreted as a guaranteed 5% portfolio return each year, unless the bond is held to maturity and<strong> </strong>assuming the issuer makes all promised payments and coupon income can be reinvested at the assumed rate.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>4. Should investors consider securing today's 5% yields for longer?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>For investors looking for income or greater visibility over future nominal cash flows, current yields may warrant consideration.</span></p> <p><span>However, identifying the exact peak in yields is extremely difficult. Inflation, fiscal risks and additional bond issuance could still push yields higher.</span></p> <p><span>Rather than making an all-or-nothing timing decision, some investors may consider spreading exposure across different maturities or gradually building a bond allocation.</span></p> <p><span>The appropriate approach depends on when the money will be needed and how much interest-rate volatility the investor can tolerate.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>5. If I hold the bond to maturity, haven't I removed the risk?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>You have removed <strong>some</strong> uncertainty, but not all of it.</span></p> <p><span>Holding an individual high-quality bond until maturity can reduce the importance of interim price movements. If the issuer makes all promised payments, the investor receives the coupons and principal repayment.</span></p> <p><span>But there is another risk that is easier to overlook: <strong>purchasing power</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Suppose $100 buys a certain basket of goods today. If inflation averages 3% for ten years, that same basket would cost roughly $134. Receiving $100 back at maturity therefore does not give the investor the same spending power they had ten years earlier.</span></p> <p><span>The investor has received exactly the number of dollars promised — but those dollars buy less.</span></p> <p><span>This is why capital preservation in nominal terms is not the same as preserving wealth in real terms.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>6. If bonds yield 5%, why still own equities?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Because bonds and equities solve different investment problems.</span></p> <p><span>Bonds generally provide greater visibility over nominal income and repayment. Equities offer much less certainty but greater potential for revenues, earnings and dividends to grow over time.</span></p> <p><span>That growth becomes particularly important for investors with long horizons because inflation compounds as well.</span></p> <p><span>A 5% bond yield against 3% inflation, for example, leaves roughly 2 percentage points of return before tax in simple inflation-adjusted terms.</span></p> <p><span>Equities are not guaranteed to beat inflation. High inflation can squeeze company margins, raise financing costs and put downward pressure on valuations.</span></p> <p><span>But over long investment horizons, companies have the potential to grow earnings and prices, giving equities greater potential to build real purchasing power.</span></p> <p><span>The distinction is useful: bonds offer greater visibility over nominal returns. Equities offer greater potential for long-term real growth.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>7. Does the AI selloff strengthen the argument for bonds?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>It strengthens the argument for reviewing portfolio concentration rather than automatically moving from equities into bonds.</span></p> <p><span>The recent AI selloff followed calls from industry leaders for greater caution around the pace of advanced AI development. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Monday as investors reassessed expectations around AI growth.</span></p> <p><span>We would be cautious about interpreting this as an immediate end to the AI investment cycle. Competition between companies and countries remains intense, and infrastructure spending may continue even if model development becomes more regulated or deliberate.</span></p> <p><span>But it highlights two portfolio risks.</span></p> <ul> <li><span>First, expectations embedded in AI-related equities are already high, making those stocks more sensitive to disappointment.</span></li> <li><span>Second, higher bond yields increase the return available outside equities and raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For investors whose portfolios have become heavily concentrated in technology and AI, this may strengthen the case for broader diversification.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>8. What factors should investors consider when comparing bonds and equities?</span></strong></h2> <p><span> <p>The significance of a 5% bond yield will differ across investors.</p> <p>Rather than using age, retirement status or risk tolerance to prescribe a particular allocation, investors can consider how different assets behave relative to their own objectives.</p> <p>Bonds generally offer greater visibility over future nominal cash flows, but their prices can fluctuate and inflation can reduce the purchasing power of those payments.</p> <p>Equities offer less certainty and greater short-term volatility, but they also provide greater potential for long-term capital and earnings growth.</p> <p>Other factors include when the capital may be needed, the return required to meet financial objectives, existing portfolio concentrations and exposure to inflation or currency movements.</p> </span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Investor consideration</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Bonds may play a larger role</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Equities may play a larger role</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Time horizon</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Money needed within roughly 3–5 years</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Money invested for 10+ years</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Primary objective</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Income / capital preservation</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Long-term wealth creation</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Return required</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Moderate return may meet the goal</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Higher long-term growth required</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Risk tolerance</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Large drawdowns could disrupt plans</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Can tolerate significant volatility</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Current portfolio</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Already heavily exposed to equities</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>Already holds substantial cash/bonds</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span>For someone approaching retirement or funding a major expense within several years, today's bond yields may make fixed income more relevant.</span></p> <p><span>For an investor saving for retirement several decades away, inflation and long-term capital growth remain bigger considerations. Bonds may complement equities rather than replace them.<br /> <br /> These considerations can help investors assess the trade-offs independently rather than assuming that one asset class is appropriate simply because yields have reached a particular level.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>9. Cash, short-term bonds or 10-year bonds?</span></strong></h2> <p><span> <p>Different maturities come with different risk-return characteristics.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Cash and very short-term bonds</strong> generally have relatively low price sensitivity and provide flexibility. However, their income is only secured for a short period. If interest rates fall, maturing investments may need to be reinvested at lower yields.</li> <li><strong>Longer-duration bonds</strong> provide greater visibility over yields for a longer period, but their market prices are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. If yields rise, their prices can fall more sharply; if yields fall, they can experience larger price gains.</li> </ul> <p>The relevant trade-off is therefore between <strong>near-term price stability, reinvestment risk and sensitivity to future changes in interest rates</strong>, rather than one maturity being inherently preferable to another.</p> </span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>10. How should investors think about the balance between equities and bonds?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Higher yields alter the relative trade-off between risk and return.</span></p> <p><span>When bond yields were much lower, investors seeking moderate portfolio returns often had to rely more heavily on equities, credit and other risk assets.</span></p> <p><span>At yields around 5%, high-quality bonds may be able to contribute a larger share of the return some investors require.</span></p> <p><span>That could make a more balanced allocation worth considering, particularly for investors whose portfolios have become equity-heavy or who are moving closer to a financial goal.</span></p> <p><span>Investors with long horizons and higher return requirements may still need substantial equity exposure because of its stronger potential for long-term capital growth.</span></p> <p><span>Portfolio allocation therefore comes back to three factors: the return required, the time available to achieve it and the amount of volatility an investor can tolerate along the way.</span></p> <br /> <br /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>11. What do 5% bond yields mean for equity positioning?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Higher bond yields do not automatically make equities unattractive, but they can create clearer winners and pressure points.</span></p> <p><span>Areas that may prove more resilient:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Cash-rich quality companies</span></strong><span> with strong free cash flow, low leverage and limited refinancing needs.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Quality financials</span></strong><span>, where higher rates can support interest income and reinvestment yields.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Energy and commodity producers</span></strong><span>, particularly when higher yields are linked to inflation, stronger nominal growth or supply constraints.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Healthcare and other defensive sectors</span></strong><span> with relatively stable demand and cash flows.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Consumer staples</span></strong><span> with recurring demand and pricing power.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Areas that can be more vulnerable:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Small caps and highly leveraged companies</span></strong><span>, where refinancing costs can rise quickly.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Rate-sensitive property and housing</span></strong><span>, including REITs and developers.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Consumer discretionary</span></strong><span>, particularly businesses exposed to financed purchases or weaker household spending.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Long-duration and speculative growth</span></strong><span>, where valuations depend heavily on profits expected far into the future.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The key message is <strong>selectivity rather than a broad shift away from equities</strong>. The reason yields are rising also matters: higher yields driven by strong growth can have very different equity implications from yields rising because of inflation or fiscal stress.</span></p> <p><span>For a deeper look, see: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/higher-rates-are-back-the-winners-and-losers-of-5-bond-yields-02092026" data-id="2AB01C5D3DC340AC9644DEA5379B5A2A" data-type="Article">Higher rates are back: The winners and losers of 5% bond yields</a><br /> <br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>12. What other risks should bond investors consider?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Several risks remain even when buying high-quality government bonds.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Inflation risk:</span></strong><span> A fixed nominal payment can lose purchasing power over time. Inflation-linked government bonds can be one way of addressing this risk.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Currency risk:</span></strong><span> A US Treasury pays in US dollars. For an investor whose future spending is in Euro, Singapore dollars or another currency, changes in the exchange rate can materially increase or reduce the return. A 5% yield can be partly or even fully offset by currency depreciation. Hedging can reduce this risk, although it also comes at a cost.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US credit and fiscal risk:</span></strong><span> Treasuries are generally treated as one of the world's benchmark low-credit-risk assets, but they should not be described as literally risk-free. Fitch currently rates the US AA+ with a stable outlook, citing the strength of the US economy and dollar but also substantial fiscal deficits. Moody's downgrade in 2025 also left the US without a top AAA rating from any of the three major agencies. An outright US government default is not the central market expectation. The more immediate portfolio risk from deteriorating fiscal dynamics is that investors demand a higher yield to hold government debt. Higher yields mean lower prices for bonds investors already own.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Diversification risk:</span></strong><span> Bonds do not always rise when stocks fall. Inflation shocks can push bond yields higher while simultaneously reducing equity valuations, causing both assets to decline together. That means diversification may extend beyond the traditional stock-bond mix. Depending on objectives and risk tolerance, investors may also consider cash, inflation-linked bonds, gold or other assets with different return drivers.</span></li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Corporate Bonds</span> <span>Income investor – Bonds</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 15 September 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:50:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>AI slowdown call rattles risk sentiment globally</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>CrowdStrike +13.8% after AI security boost while BOFA –5% on profit warning</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar climbs as yields breach 5%, Brent nears $110; USDCAD extends gains</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil remains elevated while precious metal under pressure</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>US 10-year breaches 5% for first time since 2023</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>AI slowdown call:</span></strong><span> Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a weekend essay urging the AI industry to slow the pace of frontier model development for safety reasons, a view echoed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and Elon Musk. The call rattled risk sentiment globally, triggering a broad selloff in chip and AI-linked equities.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Fed rate hike imminent:</span></strong><span> Markets are pricing in a ~92% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (Sept. 15–16), which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both revised their calls to include a September hike following last week's hotter-than-expected August CPI print (core CPI +0.3% m/m).</span></li> <li><strong><span>Oil surge on Middle East escalation:</span></strong><span> Brent crude topped $105–$108 intraday on Monday after Yemen's Houthis launched a large-scale ballistic missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Air Base. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shut last week following drone attacks from Iraq, remains a key supply risk. Trump later posted that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt strikes on energy targets, which helped oil ease from session highs.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Trump-Xi summit:</span></strong><span> A Trump-Xi meeting is expected around September 24. Goldman Sachs survey data suggests most investors view the summit as "largely symbolic," with limited expectations for material deliverables on trade or currency.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong ><span>Equities: </span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities closed lower on Monday as AI slowdown fears hammered chipmakers and elevated oil prices stoked inflation concerns. S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,619.98, the Dow Jones dropped 0.3% to 52,421.20, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.6% to 26,186.41. <strong>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.9%, i</strong>ts biggest drop in over two months. Nvidia fell 3.4%, Broadcom, Intel (-5.6%), AMD (-4.4%), Marvell (-7.3%) and Micron (-5.3%) all saw heavy losses. <strong>Corning was the worst S&P 500 performer, down ~14%, hit by both AI sentiment and a $2bn at-the-market equity offering announced Friday. Goldman Sachs fell 4.0% and Bank of America slumped 5% on the trading revenue warning. On the positive side, software and cybersecurity stocks rallied with CrowdStrike gaining 13.8% and Palo Alto adding 13%.</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities fell on Monday, dragged by the global AI and chip selloff. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.5%, the DAX fell 0.5%, and the CAC 40 dropped 0.8%. The FTSE 100 was a relative outperformer, edging up 0.4%, supported by energy names as oil prices rose. Semiconductor and tech-linked names bore the brunt of selling across the continent, mirroring the US move. German Bund yields hit a 15-year high, tracking the move in Treasuries.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets were mixed on Monday but face a broadly weaker open on Tuesday. The Hang Seng rose 0.5% to 24,917.60 on Monday, bucking the regional trend, led by tech and biotech gains — Xiaomi +3.0%, Hansoh Pharmaceutical +5.1%, and Akeso surged ~6.9% after reporting positive cancer drug trial results. Shein fell ~6.4% after Jefferies initiated at Underperform. The Kospi fell 3.4% on Monday, the worst performer in the region, as SK Hynix and Samsung each lost over 4% on AI slowdown fears; Kospi futures opened down a further 0.4% on Tuesday to 6,659. <strong>The Nikkei fell as SoftBank slumped ~11% — its biggest drop in nearly three months — given its deep exposure to OpenAI.</strong> The Topix, however, ended up 0.7% with financials leading.<strong> Kioxia announced yesterday that they are to consider $10b US listing.</strong></span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>Events this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Tuesday: Trip.com</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: FOMC rate decision</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: BOE rate decision</span></li> <li><span>Friday: BOJ rate decision</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> strengthened broadly on Monday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up around 0.3–0.4% as 10-year Treasury yields briefly broke above 5%, Brent neared $110/bbl, and risk appetite was hit by AI slowdown concerns.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> rose to 154.35, though resistance around the 155 level capped further upside. Technical analysis suggests risks remain skewed to the downside near-term, with a potential test of 152 in coming weeks. </span></li> <li><strong>USDSEK</strong> gained 0.63% and<strong> USDCAD </strong>rose for a fourth day to 1.3902, with strategists eyeing 1.3940 on Fed and geopolitical risks.<strong> USDCAD </strong>extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive day, approaching the 100-day moving average at 1.3931. CIBC flagged a potential move toward 1.3940 on the back of a hawkish Fed outlook and Middle East tensions. </li> <li><strong>AUD </strong>fell as much as 0.9% intraday to its weakest level since August 20, tracking the broader risk-off tone driven by falling equities and rising oil. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> is trading at $105.68/bbl in early Asian trading on Tuesday, having topped $108 intraday on Monday before easing after Trump's post on energy target ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. WTI is at $102.10/bbl, up ~0.7% on the day. The closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraq, combined with the postponement of Hormuz shipping lane talks, continues to underpin prices. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>is trading below $4,300/oz in early Asian trading on Tuesday, having closed around $4,287 — down ~0.3% — as investors piled back into the dollar and out of bullion. The precious metal has struggled to reclaim its safe-haven role, weighed by rising real yields (US 10-year real yield at 2.60%, up 68bps YTD) and Fed hike expectations.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>10-year Treasury yield</strong> touched 5.01% on Monday — a key psychological level not seen since October 2023 — before pulling back to close near 4.99%. The move was driven by surging oil prices, mounting inflation concerns, and swelling government borrowing needs. The yield is currently at 4.99% in early Asian trading on Tuesday. </span></li> <li><span>The<strong> Treasury curve</strong> twist-flattened on Monday, with the 1-year yield rising ~2.2bps to 4.355% as near-term rate hike pricing firmed to ~92% for Wednesday's FOMC. The 30-year yield fell ~1.6bps to 5.339%, flattening the 5s30s spread by ~3bps to 53.9bps. The 6-month T-bill was sold at 4.06% — the highest in over a year — at Monday's auction. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.60%, its highest in 18 years on a closing basis.</span></li> <li><strong><span>German Bund yields </span></strong><span>hit a 15-year high on Monday, tracking the move in Treasuries as energy-driven inflation and fiscal concerns ripple across global sovereign debt markets. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Fresh turmoil turns the tables on the USD bears.</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:53:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Wilting risk sentiment supports the greenback - for now.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>The latest</strong></p> <p><strong>The US dollar has rallied here, partially on the CPI release Friday, but more clearly on classic risk-off drivers.</strong> We saw a confusing market reaction to the US August CPI release on Friday. At first, the slightly hotter than expected core month-on-month number (+0.3% vs. 0.2% expected) seemed to inspire a USD resurgence, but much of this was quickly wiped away and the market even seemed to use the modest USD rally as an excuse to find liquidity to establish new short USDJPY positions as the pair quickly reversed its brief spike higher to nearly 154.50 to trade below 153.50 at one point. And yet, outside of USDJPY, the US dollar finished the day not far from where it started, suggesting little overall impact from the CPI number, even as odds of an FOMC hike by the end of the day shifted toward “near certainty” from a “more-likely-than-not” level.</p> <p>We went into the weekend, then, with global bond yields still generally higher and with the Japanese yen on the bid, while oil prices were retreating on hopes that a Monday meeting in Oman between GCC members and Iran would address the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Then at the weekend two events conspired to change the plot:</p> <ul> <li>The GCC meeting with Iran scheduled for today was cancelled and oil prices blasted higher after Saudi announced the closure of its multi-million-barrel-a-day East-West Pipeline on damage from attacks coming from Iraq. Meanwhile, in Yemen fresh Houthi aggression saw the rebel group making strong territorial gains and showing apparent intent to control shipping routes through the Bab el-Mandeb strait connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean with the seizure of islands.</li> <li>Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei spoke in favour of a slowdown in AI development, supposedly for safety reasons, and other prominent AI figures chimed in with supportive comments. Whatever the reason for any possible slowing down (and there are many theories), equity risk sentiment was spooked on the news.</li> </ul> <p><em><strong>Key takeaways and what to watch for from here:</strong> A sudden risk-off vibe centered on fresh energy price concerns (more acute outside of the US) and on the status of AI investments has inspired some broad risk-off behavior, the kind that has often supported the US dollar in the past. With positioning recently having tilted sharply in the Japanese yen’s favour and against the US dollar, there is perhaps heightened danger of the US dollar continuing higher as long as these new concerns deepen. This could stress-test the recent USDJPY move, especially if the important 155.00 level gives way – and we have a painfully long wait until the Friday BoJ, which may have a hard time delivering beyond what is already priced in (a 25-bp BoJ hike is fully priced, with guidance for more to come, if not immediately.) Still, the FOMC doesn’t look likely to deliver USD-positive developments either, as discussed below.</em></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: EURUSD</strong><br /> We’ll switch gears here away from USDJPY and take a look at EURUSD after the Friday test and now Monday break of the key local support near 1.1570. This theoretically opens up the range down to the 1.1325 low of 2026, but the round 1.1500 level is the next area of note to watch. That 1.1500 area has supported EURUSD, save for the significant slippage in June and July, since May of last year. Note that the event that seemed to inspire the slip below the 1.1500 level in EURUSD was the June 17 FOMC meeting, which helped drive US yield expectations higher at the time. Will this FOMC meeting serve as a similar catalyst? Recently, the Europe-US yield spreads have been quite stable as ECB and FOMC rate-hike expectations have moved higher in parallel. It is hard to believe that this FOMC will drive a notable divergence in spreads in the US dollar’s favour, as Fed Chair Warsh says he wants to avoid forward guidance. So EURUSD direction may have to come from other developments beyond the FOMC meeting. More on the FOMC below.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Elsewhere, EURSEK backed up to new cycle highs on the general risk off tone and perhaps at the margin on the Swedish election results, which could see the country set for a long period of awkward coalition building and political uncertainty if the left-leaning “red bloc” ekes out a narrow win that the 94% vote count currently projects. A key centre-left party has said it won’t support a government with the most left-leaning party in the bloc, making coalition building cumbersome. I suspect the weak SEK has far more to do with the weak risk sentiment backdrop and headwinds for the EU growth outlook from high oil and gas prices. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Looking ahead</span></strong></p> <p><span>Key central bank meetings this week:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Wednesday: FOMC meeting. <br /> </span></strong><span>What to watch: Now we have a 25-bp hike almost fully priced, with another hike fully priced for the December meeting. We have a hard time seeing Fed Chair Warsh signaling anything that can take US rate expectations higher independently of rate expectations from other central banks that are largely linked to the oil price, especially given Warsh’s avowed intent to avoid forward guidance. The surprise scenarios in our view tilt to the dovish side – concerns linked to the impact of a supply shock or foregoing a rate hike entirely (not our base case, but would likely prove a significant shock to the USD.). Still, theoretically the dot plot or economic projections could suggest more hawkishness than we anticipate.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Thursday: Bank of England meeting <br /> </span></strong><span>What to watch: The coming budget plans under PM Andy Burnham are likely seen as paramount for the BoE’s forecasts for growth and inflation and won’t be known until the Autumn Budget statement on October 28, so any BoE move not likely until the November 5 meeting.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Friday: Bank of Japan meeting.</span></strong><span><br /> What to watch: This meeting is fully priced to deliver a 25-basis point hike, with uncertainty around the pace of hikes beyond that meeting (The market is priced for most of a second hike through the December 18 BoJ meeting). Squeeze danger for JPY crosses ahead of the BoJ above 155.00 in USDJPY if the US dollar continues to strengthen in the near term, with the next key resistance zone into the 157-158.00 zone.</span></p> </span></p> <strong>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.</strong><br /> <span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The huge JPY reading only indicates how much backfilling JPY crosses can afford without neutralizing the trend that has developed – stay tuned through the BoJ this Friday. The USD bounceback has nearly neutralized the broader USD picture, but it wouldn’t take much of a USD sell-off to encourage USD bears again. Elsewhere, SEK is the weakest currency in the G10 and CHF and NZD are competing for next-weakest status.</span></p> </span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The EURUSD “up-trend” was built on the big August rally that peaked more than three weeks ago – it is in danger of falling if EURUSD remains here or lower in the coming few days. Gold is also in danger of reverting to a negative trend as key support below 4,300 is under fire. EURCHF has come in for some heavy selling today after posting a new cycle high on Friday – that suggests position squaring, possibly as the sudden risk-off tone since Friday weighs on carry trades.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Europe wants champions again: is the age of the mega-merger returning?</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 11:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Europe is rethinking whether greater corporate scale can strengthen its competitiveness</strong> against larger United States and Asian rivals.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Stock exchanges show the problem clearly:</strong> Europe has deep capital markets, but trading and infrastructure remain fragmented.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Banks and telecoms face similar pressures</strong>, but bigger only creates value when scale improves the underlying economics.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Europe has spent decades worrying about companies becoming too big. Now the bigger concern may be that they are not big enough.</span></p> <p><span>On 14 September 2026, <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ft.com/content/cf0ee7e3-8634-4c1d-8a44-3b71acee1417?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank">Euronext chief executive Stéphane Boujnah said the pan-European exchange operator could be open to a combination with rival Deutsche Börse</a> if the economics made sense. There are no active merger talks, and Deutsche Börse has confirmed that. The interesting part is therefore not whether a deal happens. It is that such a deal can once again be seriously discussed.</span></p> <p><span>The bigger question for investors is whether Europe is changing how it thinks about scale. If it is, exchanges may only be the beginning.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>One market, many pieces</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Europe has spent decades building a single market. In practice, many important industries still behave more like neighbouring national markets with a shared flag.</span></p> <p><span>Stock exchanges show the problem clearly.</span></p> <p><span>Euronext already operates markets across France, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Norway and others through common infrastructure. Deutsche Börse runs another large ecosystem spanning the Frankfurt stock market, derivatives, clearing, settlement and financial data. </span><span >Yet European trading is still spread across multiple exchanges, venues and national systems.</span></p> <p><span>Europe is trying to reduce some of that fragmentation without mergers. In July, the European Securities and Markets Authority authorised EuroCTP as the consolidated tape provider for shares and exchange-traded funds.</span></p> <p><span>The idea is simple. Instead of investors looking across many venues to see where a share is trading and at what price, the consolidated tape brings that information together in one stream. </span><span >Think of it like replacing dozens of separate airport departure boards with one screen showing every flight.</span></p> <p><span>It should improve transparency and price discovery. But it also reveals the bigger issue: Europe is still trying to make its financial markets behave more like one market. </span><span >If the market itself becomes more unified, it is fair to ask whether the companies running it eventually become more unified too.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The economics of getting bigger</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Scale matters most when a business has high fixed costs. </span><span >An exchange spends heavily on technology, cybersecurity, data, regulation and clearing infrastructure. Once that system exists, processing another trade can be relatively cheap. Spread those fixed costs across more activity and the economics can improve.</span></p> <p><span>The same logic helps explain why consolidation keeps returning in banking and telecoms. </span><span >European banks operate under increasingly common supervision, yet the business remains highly national. Around 80% of lending still goes to customers in banks’ home countries, while fewer than 2% of deposits are held across borders.</span></p> <p><span>Technology, compliance and risk systems are expensive. Serving more customers through the same infrastructure can therefore create real efficiencies. </span><span >Telecoms face a similar equation. Building fibre and mobile networks requires huge upfront investment, but Europe remains divided across many national operators.</span></p> <p><span>This is the strongest argument for European champions. Bigger is not automatically better. But where more customers can share the same infrastructure, scale can improve returns.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Size is not a moat</span></strong></h3> <p><span>That distinction matters because merger enthusiasm can quickly become expensive. </span><span >A combination can remove duplicated costs, widen distribution and strengthen competitive positions. It can also create bureaucracy, political compromises and an acquisition price that consumes years of expected benefits.</span></p> <p><span>Europe is not abandoning competition policy either. The European Commission is reviewing its merger guidelines, but competition and consumer protection remain central. </span><span >For investors, the better question is therefore not: who gets bought next? It is: does becoming bigger actually make the business better?</span></p> <p><span>A merger does not create a moat simply because two companies become larger. The best combinations make an already strong business structurally stronger.</span></p> <p><span>Three tests matter. Does scale lower costs or improve the product? Can management integrate the acquisition without damaging returns? And is the buyer disciplined about price? </span><span >Even an excellent asset can become a poor investment if management pays too much.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Politics still sits at the table</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Europe becoming more open to consolidation does not mean every deal will happen, or should happen.</span></p> <p><span>Governments may still defend national champions. Regulators may object when fewer competitors could mean higher prices or less choice. Cross-border deals can also run into different labour rules, regulators and political priorities.</span></p> <p><span>National borders may be fading economically, but politically they still matter.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Look for real scale benefits.</span></strong><span> Shared infrastructure and technology matter more than simply combining revenues.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch the purchase price.</span></strong><span> Synergies mean little if management pays for all of them upfront.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Follow regulation, not rumours.</span></strong><span> Policy changes may matter more than individual takeover speculation.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Separate consolidation from quality.</span></strong><span> Fewer competitors can help economics, but execution still determines who captures the value.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Europe may finally be thinking at European scale</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Europe has spent decades building a single market, yet many of its companies still behave as if national borders matter more than they should.</span></p> <p><span>That is why the Euronext and Deutsche Börse discussion matters even if nothing happens. The important change is in the conversation itself. A larger European company can increasingly be seen not only as a competition risk, but also as a possible answer to duplicated infrastructure, weak scale and larger global rivals.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the opportunity is not simply to hunt for the next mega-merger. It is to identify where scale genuinely improves the business. </span><span >Europe’s next challenge may not be building a bigger market. It already has one. The challenge is building companies capable of using it.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Vol collapses, skew climbs - Options Brief - 14 September 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Every headline volatility measure fell on Friday except one. The skew gauge went the other way, and it did it on the session the market decided Fed week was settled.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.84 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (154.49) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.66</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The front of the curve emptied out on Friday.</strong> The S&P 500 rose <strong>0.86%</strong> to <strong>7,656.98</strong> and ended four losing sessions, while the one-day volatility gauge fell <strong>25.66%</strong> to <strong>12.98</strong> and the 30-day measure <strong>11.21%</strong> to <strong>15.84</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Fed week got cheaper, not merely closer.</strong> The <strong>18 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>102 points</strong>, or <strong>1.33%</strong>, against <strong>141</strong> quoted on Friday morning, where the clock alone would have left roughly <strong>129</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The tail did not come down with the rest.</strong> The skew gauge rose <strong>5.08%</strong> to <strong>154.49</strong> and the September volatility future held a <strong>0.82</strong> point premium to spot, against <strong>0.19</strong> a session earlier.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 14 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market has priced for this week, before a single session of it has traded.</p> <p><strong></strong><em>Expected move to the 18 September expiry, drawn around the Friday 11 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Volatility uses the 16 September expiry, the next one listed. Read from the option chain at Friday’s close and centred on put-call parity, not a forecast.</em></p> <ul> <li><em><strong>The equity bands are narrow and the commodity bands are not.</strong></em> The S&P 500 has <strong>101.65 points</strong>, or <strong>1.33%</strong>, to work with and the Nasdaq 100 fund <strong>1.84%</strong>, against <strong>2.63%</strong> for gold, <strong>2.81%</strong> for the energy fund and <strong>3.94%</strong> for the bitcoin fund. Three rate decisions land inside that window.</li> <li><em><strong>Nothing has been spent yet, which is the point of showing it now.</strong></em> Every marker sits on its anchor because the week opens today. In our view a <strong>1.33%</strong> band across a Federal Reserve decision, a Bank of England decision and a Bank of Japan decision may prove thin. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after drone attacks, halting a route that carries around <strong>5 million barrels a day</strong> past the Strait of Hormuz, with no restart date set and roughly <strong>4%</strong> of global supply at risk. US consumer prices rose <strong>0.4%</strong> in August for an annual rate of <strong>3.4%</strong>, and rate markets now price about an <strong>87%</strong> chance of a <strong>25 basis point</strong> increase on Wednesday. More in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">macro coverage</a> and today’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-up-chips-down-fed-ahead---14-september-2026-14092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take – Oil up, chips down, Fed ahead, 14 September 2026</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot, Friday 11 September 2026 close</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Friday 11 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,656.98</strong>, up <strong>0.86%</strong> and higher for the first time in five sessions. Dow <strong>52,578.27</strong>, up <strong>0.98%</strong>. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,368.44</strong>, up <strong>0.91%</strong>. Dell gained <strong>12.0%</strong> and Hewlett Packard Enterprise <strong>12.4%</strong> after Oracle’s cloud results, with Apple up <strong>1.8%</strong>.</li> <li><strong >Europe (Friday 11 September close):</strong><span > Stoxx 600 </span><strong >639.10</strong><span >, up </span><strong >0.49%</strong><span > but </span><strong >1.7%</strong><span > lower on the week. DAX </span><strong >25,568.56</strong><span >, up </span><strong >0.82%</strong><span >, with Infineon </span><strong >5.0%</strong><span > higher as chip names rebounded.</span></li> <li><strong >Asia (Monday 14 September session):</strong><span > the Kospi fell </span><strong >3.2%</strong><span > and the Nikkei 225 </span><strong >1.0%</strong><span > as oil and weekend calls to slow artificial intelligence development hit technology. SoftBank lost </span><strong >12%</strong><span >, SK Hynix around </span><strong >6%</strong><span > and Samsung Electronics </span><strong >3.9%</strong><span >.</span></li> <li><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent spiked to </span><strong >USD 108.49</strong><span > at the Asian open and WTI held above </span><strong >USD 103</strong><span > by 06:00 CET. Gold trades near </span><strong >USD 4,330</strong><span > and copper has extended its slide below </span><strong >USD 6.50</strong><span >. The US 2-year yield sits just below </span><strong >4.63%</strong><span > and the 10-year just below </span><strong >4.97%</strong><span >. EURUSD </span><strong >1.1570</strong><span >, USDJPY </span><strong >154.04</strong><span >.</span></li> <li><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Low Vol Bull, VIX 15.84, with the S&P 500 </span><strong >0.65%</strong><span > above its 50-day moving average and 20-day realised volatility at </span><strong >8.8%</strong><span > and falling.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 11 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow:</strong> confirmed-opening premium across the tape reached <strong>USD 1.75bn</strong> and split <strong>50.6%</strong> to puts, about as even as this market gets. Almost every headline line was deep in the money and crossed at mid, including a memory maker’s put ladder printed across four expiries in the same second. That shape is financing and rolling rather than a view. In our view the size says institutions were repositioning, not choosing a side.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow:</strong> large-cap technology carried <strong>USD 187.4m</strong> with <strong>54.8%</strong> in calls, and the executions there ran to 2027 and 2028 strikes in matched pairs. Long-dated protection on the broad index was opened in size at the offer, though at that tenor it hedges slowly. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 14 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX spot <strong>15.84</strong>, down <strong>11.21%</strong></li> <li>VIX1D <strong>12.98</strong>, down <strong>25.66%</strong> · VIX9D <strong>14.47</strong>, down <strong>18.25%</strong></li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.60</strong> · VIX6M <strong>20.39</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>21.75</strong>, a curve that rises steeply from a low front end</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month VIX futures <strong>16.66</strong>, a premium to spot of <strong>0.82</strong> points against <strong>0.19</strong> a session earlier. The continuous front-month series reads <strong>18.770</strong>, a level belonging to the October contract after the roll, so no session comparison is drawn from it. The September figure comes from put-call parity on the <strong>16 September</strong> expiry.</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>18.39</strong> by the same method, leaving the front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.906</strong> and the curve in steep contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>154.49</strong>, up <strong>7.47 points</strong>, well above the 100 to 120 neutral zone</li> <li>COR3M <strong>11.21</strong>, down <strong>9.45%</strong>, three-month implied correlation back near the low end of its range</li> <li>DSPX <strong>30.58</strong>, down <strong>3.20%</strong>, the S&P 500 dispersion index</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>91.28</strong>, down <strong>11.09%</strong> · MOVE <strong>82.21</strong>, up <strong>0.14%</strong></li> <li>VXN <strong>21.02</strong>, down <strong>9.90%</strong>, holding a ratio of <strong>1.33</strong> to the headline gauge</li> <li>GVZ <strong>25.68</strong>, down <strong>9.83%</strong></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Session implied move.</strong></em> Today’s expiry prices <strong>39 points</strong>, or <strong>0.51%</strong>, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast, with no scheduled US release inside the window and the Federal Reserve two sessions away. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>Event implied range.</strong></em> The <strong>18 September</strong> expiry carried <strong>141 points</strong> on Friday morning and prices <strong>102</strong> now. One session has come off the clock, so flat-volatility decay alone would have left about <strong>129</strong>. In our view taking a further <strong>27 points</strong> out of a window that spans three central bank decisions may say the market has decided the Wednesday move is settled rather than contested.</li> <li><em><strong>Term-structure read.</strong></em> Spot volatility fell <strong>2.00 points</strong> while the September contract fell <strong>1.37</strong>, widening the basis to <strong>0.82</strong> points, and the front-to-second ratio sits at <strong>0.906</strong>. In our assessment a curve that steepens while its front end collapses appears to price calm now and something less calm from the decision onward.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong></em> The skew gauge rose to <strong>154.49</strong> on a session when every headline volatility measure fell, and three-month implied correlation dropped to <strong>11.21</strong>. In our view cheap correlation alongside expensive wings may point to a market comfortable that index moves stay small and unwilling to say the same about a gap. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>Canada publishes August consumer prices at <strong>14:30 CET</strong>. G20 energy ministers meet in Houston through Wednesday, with the Saudi pipeline outage on the agenda. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, all inside the 18 September expiry. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our assessment Friday emptied the near end of the volatility curve and left the wings where they were. The combination of a <strong>0.51%</strong> same-day range, a <strong>1.33%</strong> range to Friday and a skew gauge above <strong>154</strong> could suggest the option market is pricing a quiet path to Wednesday rather than a quiet week, though a curve this steep can flatten quickly and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. The week opens with its range drawn and none of it spent. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/week-overruns-one-day-reprices---options-brief---11-september-2026-11092026" data-id="6B68EE2847784F2B8D1ADACDC0D772B2" data-type="Article">Week overruns one day reprices - Options Brief - 11 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-bites-one-name-lifts---options-brief---10-september-2026-10092026" data-id="7487205D4EA84FB990529B5DDA4B3884" data-type="Article">Oil bites one name lifts - Options Brief - 10 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-day-drains-friday-fills---options-brief---9-september-2026-09092026" data-id="2710AA396670481E86ECD99921F4DED0" data-type="Article">Front day drains Friday fills - Options Brief - 9 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-run-front-end-firms---options-brief---7-september-2026-07092026" data-id="92D2390AB98944AE8AC2BFFCF4267F56" data-type="Article">Chips run front end firms - Options Brief - 7 September 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-up-chips-down-fed-ahead---14-september-2026-14092026" data-id="8986171792ED4EC5A0E6023FF9B41EAA" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil up chips down Fed ahead - 14 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-above-100-lifts-yields-asia-slips-into-cpi---11-september-2026-11092026" data-id="BA221F872B4B4BC99A2BE06206C58C86" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil above 100 lifts yields Asia slips into CPI - 11 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Fresh oil supply woes and pondering the agenda behind an AI "slowdown".</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 09:40:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">AI hardware stocks spooked overnight.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/fresh-oil-supply-woes-and-pondering-the-agenda-behind-an-ai-slowdown/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-8-sept-2026-14092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ole Hansen breaks down the latest COT report showing shifts in positioning across the US futures market complex</a></span>, including some huge shifts in the FX space.</li> <li>Arnaud Bertrand says <span><a href="https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2099319829589295197" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China is hyperscaling an AI data center far beyond anything the rest of the world has ever seen</a></span> in the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia.</li> <li>WSJ runs an article on <span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-churning-out-smart-cheap-new-weapons-faster-than-ukraine-or-the-u-s-c817d014?mod=hp_lead_pos3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia's new generations of drones</a></span>, which are applying new levels of pressure on Ukraine.</li> <li>Cory Doctorow with a very different take (<span><a href="https://pluralistic.net/2026/09/12/god-in-the-box/#llms-are-fake" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>LLM's are real, AI is fake</em></a></span>) on the infamous "Hugging Face incident" as he pokes fun at the breathless anthropomorphizing of how AI agents hacked into systems and used message boards to communicate, etc., arguing that all of their actions were fully based on training data and showed no sign of intelligence. Many cool sub-links in this piece as well.</li> </ul> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Yen sees dramatic positioning flip while agriculture longs remain near record</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 8 September 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 8 September 2026.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Yen positioning flips</strong>: Speculators aggressively bought JPY, most notably against the dollar and euro, flipping a sizeable short into a small net long ahead of the BoJ meeting</span></li> <li><span> <strong>Dollar longs retreat</strong>: The aggregate dollar long against eight IMM futures fell to a 14-week low, driven primarily by the sharp unwind of yen shorts. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Copper and soybeans attract buyers</strong>: The HG copper net long reached a five-year high ahead of the US tariff wobble, while soybean positioning climbed to an all-time high.. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Grain and softs length remains crowded</strong>: Despite profit-taking across grains and softs, the combined speculative net long remained close to last week’s record at 1.36 million contracts.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Forex</strong></h3> <p> </p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="498"><span>The latest COT forex update covers the week to 8 September, a period when traders grew increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan will deliver a quarter-point rate hike on 18 September, potentially accompanied by sufficiently hawkish guidance to keep expectations for another move in December alive. Two days earlier, on Wednesday, the FOMC will make its decision on rates and following Friday’s CPI report combined with a continued rally in energy prices, market expectations for an increase remains high, setting the stage for a potentially volatile week across currencies and rates.</span></p> <p data-start="500" data-end="834">During the reporting week, the yen surged 4.2% against the dollar and 3.6% against the euro, helping set the broader tone for positioning. Speculators cut their aggregate dollar long against eight IMM currency futures by 29% to USD 19.5 billion, the lowest in 14 weeks and well below the USD 50 billion peak reached earlier this year.</p> <p data-start="836" data-end="1389">The standout move was a dramatic reversal in yen positioning. Speculators bought a net 103,000 contracts, equivalent to USD 8.4 billion, flipping the position from a sizeable short to a small net long of 10,800 contracts. The move highlights how rapidly expectations for Bank of Japan policy have shifted and, given the scale of the yen rally during the reporting period, suggests a significant element of short covering alongside fresh long exposure. The Canadian dollar also attracted demand, with its net short reduced by 35% to USD 70,500 contracts.</p> <p data-start="1391" data-end="1746">Elsewhere, the table highlights that recent yen shorts were not only held against the dollar but also through euro-yen exposure. The sharp reversal in EURJPY therefore contributed to renewed selling of euro futures, with the euro net short increasing by 71% to 42,600 contracts after speculators sold a net 17,700 contracts, equivalent to USD 2.6 billion.</p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial USD position versus eight IMM futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 data-section-id="whjwy9" data-start="0" data-end="76">Commodities</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="783"><span></span></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="283"><span></span></p> <p><span>In commodities, the latest update covers the week to 8 September, when the Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 0.5%, with strength in energy (+1.9%), precious metals (+1.3%) and industrial metals (+2.4%) offset by losses in grains (-2.2%) and, particularly, soft commodities (-5%).</span></p> <p><span>At the individual contract level, managed-money buying was concentrated in crude oil, copper and soybeans. WTI buying lifted the net long close to its one-year high, while the HG copper net long reached a five-year high just ahead of the subsequent tariff-related correction. Despite higher prices on the week, gold's recent struggle to break out of an established 200-dollar wide range between USD 4,300 and USD 4,500 triggered both long and short liquidation which overall left the net long slightly lower.<br /> <br /> Across the agriculture sector, soybean positioning reached an all-time high at 266k contracts, while the sugar net long edged higher to another near four-year high. Buying in these two contracts helped offset modest selling across most other grain and soft contracts, leaving the combined net long down by just 9k contracts from last week’s record to 1.36 million contracts. As per the above table, the most notable positions besides sugar and the soybean complex which also includes meal and oil, are currently held in corn, while the CBOT wheat position continues to hover near flat having failed to attract buyers despite the recent price surge driven by Black Sea supply disruptions. </span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money short, long and net positions in energy - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money short, long and net positions across key metals - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions across key grains and soft commodities - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)</a> and the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ice.com/report/122" target="_blank">ICE Exchange Europe</a> for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span><strong>Commodities:</strong> Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, <strong>Managed Money</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Financials:</strong> Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, <strong>Leveraged Funds</strong>, and Other Reportables<br /> <strong>Forex:</strong> A broader breakdown between commercial and <strong>non-commercial</strong> participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators</span></p> <p> <p>The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>They are more likely to have <strong>tight stops</strong> and <strong>no underlying physical exposure</strong> that needs to be hedged</li> <li>This makes them <strong>more reactive to changes</strong> in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>Their positioning provides insight into <strong>major trends</strong>, while extreme positions can also help identify when a <strong>reversal or correction</strong> may be looming</li> </ul> <p>It is worth noting that this group tends to <strong>anticipate, accelerate and amplify</strong> price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a <strong>trough</strong> in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>11 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-shock-reshapes-commodity-rally-as-yields-surge-and-metals-retreat-11092026" data-id="2FADE85F2C5F42D687D06BBBD74A2749" data-type="Article">Oil shock reshapes commodity rally as yields surge and metals retreat</a><br /> 9 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-hits-record-amid-weak-output-and-metal-piling-up-in-the-wrong-place-08092026" data-id="7D4C7EB1164F4CFAA7A24A7D7B1FD932" data-type="Article">Copper hits record amid weak output and metal piling up in the wrong place</a><br /> 8 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rangebound-as-weaker-dollar-offsets-rate-hike-and-inflation-risks-09092026" data-id="7676154B3FB8482284ABD5D94AEA5DE0" data-type="Article">Gold rangebound as weaker dollar offsets rate-hike and inflation risks</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/look-beyond-brent-to-see-the-true-scale-of-the-energy-squeeze-07092026" data-id="6C1F4401197547ECB036D3E069EAAF25" data-type="Article">Look beyond Brent to see the true scale of the energy squeeze</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-1-sept-2026-07092026" data-id="2192D5ECE789423E8FD23A4FD151714C" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 1 Sept 2026</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil up, chips down, Fed ahead - 14 September 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 06:23:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts </strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A Saudi pipeline closure and a call to slow AI set a cautious tone before three rate decisions</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks rebounded Friday, Europe recovered but ended the week lower, while Asia sold off on oil and AI concerns</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Friday's calm in equity volatility gave way to firmer futures as weekend risks built into the Fed</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot held firm through the weekend while ether funds drew their strongest inflow of the month</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude climbed again on the Saudi pipeline closure while gold eased and copper extended its retreat</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US treasury yield rebound again and test new cycle highs after choppy reaction to CPI data Friday.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: US dollar rebounds as global risk sentiment wilts on fresh crude oil price spike.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Saudi Arabia shut its East–West crude pipeline after drone attacks</strong>, halting a 5 mb/d key export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and with no restart date set, underscoring the line’s importance amid US–Iran tensions. Talks on a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor were postponed amid Saudi concerns, and Bahrain said it would not join. <strong>Iran had planned to unveil a temporary Hormuz shipping lane deal on Monday, but Oman postponed the Persian Gulf foreign ministers’ meeting indefinitely.</strong></li> <li><strong>The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8</strong> in early September 2026, its weakest since May and below the 51.0 forecast. Sentiment is now 16% below pre‑Iran‑war levels and 13% below a year ago, with one‑year inflation expectations up to 4.6% and five‑year to 3.4%.</li> <li><strong>Leaders of the world’s biggest AI platforms are calling for a slowdown</strong> in the development of their most advanced models amid growing concerns about risks to national security and the global economy. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is introducing additional safeguards, including third-party evaluations, while urging the wider industry to support a broader downshift in development.</li> <li><strong>US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August</strong>, leaving annual inflation at 3.4%, in line with forecasts, as gasoline jumped 3.9%; <strong>core prices rose 0.3% on the month, above expectations</strong><strong> for a 0.2% reacting</strong>, although the annual core rate matched expectations at 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. Rate markets now price a roughly 87% chance of a 25 basis point increase at <strong>Wednesday's </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>Federal Reserve meeting</strong>. The <strong>Bank of England decides on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday</strong>. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1230 – Canada Aug CPI</li> <li>0200 – China Aug. Retail Sales</li> <li>0200 – China Aug. Industrial Production</li> </ul> <p>G20 energy ministers meet in Houston (through Wednesday)</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Trip.com</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Lennar</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Carnival Corporation, Next</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 rose 0.9% on Friday to 7,656.98, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9% to 29,368.44 and the Dow added 1.0%, ending four straight sessions of losses as oil retreated and August inflation reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Dell jumped 12.0% and Hewlett Packard Enterprise 12.4% as Oracle’s cloud results strengthened confidence in AI infrastructure spending, while Apple gained 1.8% after its product launch. SpaceX rose 2.0%, with its Nasdaq 100 weighting set to increase to about 2.82% from 1.28%. Monday futures reversed lower as oil and AI-safety concerns returned.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% on Friday to 639.10, while the DAX gained 0.8% and the FTSE 100 added 0.4%, although the pan-European benchmark still lost 1.7% for the week. Falling oil prices offered relief after the European Central Bank raised rates and warned that energy-driven inflation could stay elevated. Infineon climbed 5.0% as chip stocks rebounded alongside strong TSMC sales, Siemens gained 2.5% as Germany and the UAE deepened industrial cooperation, and Intesa Sanpaolo rose 2.6% after Rome signalled it would not interfere with its Banca MPS bid. FlatexDEGIRO fell 7.9% after its supervisory-board chairman resigned.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities fell on Monday as higher oil prices and calls from leading AI executives to slow model development hit technology shares. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.0%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.2% as investors also prepared for possible rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan this week. SoftBank sank 12% because of its heavy OpenAI exposure, Kioxia fell almost 7% as memory names were hit, SK Hynix dropped around 6%, and Samsung Electronics lost 3.9% as the AI hardware trade unwound. Brent crude’s renewed rise above $107 added another inflation headwind to an already fragile session.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.84 | VIX FUTURES: 18.77 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (154.49) | MOVE: 82.21 | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Weekend calls from AI leaders to slow model development, and Saudi Arabia's pipeline closure, have <strong>Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.26%</strong> and the <strong>front VIX future 2.24% higher at 18.77</strong> overnight. Friday's cash readings pre-date that: <strong>VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84</strong> after the inflation print, VIX1D 25.66% to 12.98, VVIX 11.09% to 91.28.</li> <li><strong>The cash curve is in contango</strong> to 21.75 at one year, <strong>SKEW rose 5.08% to 154.49</strong> and MOVE held 82.21. SPX options imply <strong>39 points (0.51%) today and 102 points (1.33%) to 18 September</strong>, which spans Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~77,517 (+0.90%) | ETHEREUM ~2,511 (+1.40%) | IBIT 43.77 (+0.21%) | ETHA 19.16 (+3.23%) | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto spot edged higher over the weekend and held that ground into Monday, apart from the softer tone in equity futures. Friday's US session was firm for the listed complex: <strong>CleanSpark gained 6.80%</strong>, Cipher 5.71% and Marathon 4.81%, with <strong>Strategy up 1.87%</strong> and Coinbase 1.73%, while the ether fund outpaced the bitcoin fund.</li> <li><strong>Spot ether funds drew about USD 216 million on Friday</strong>, the largest daily inflow this month, led by the BlackRock product, while bitcoin funds saw a fourth straight day of outflows. A <strong>Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act</strong> market structure bill is scheduled for 15 September.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent </strong><strong>crude</strong> spiked to USD 108.49 at the Asian opening while WTI reached USD 106.60, before easing back a bit, after Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline following attacks, the route that had been carrying around 5 million barrels a day of crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The closure is estimated to put around 4% of global supply at risk and may force Saudi Arabia to make further output cuts as storage facilities fill. Meanwhile, a meeting between Iran and several Gulf nations aimed at creating a temporary shipping lane through Hormuz was postponed amid a rapid military advance by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. With no end to the conflict in sight, the risk of further inflationary pressure through higher fuel costs remains a key focus. In Brent, the prompt month spread has jumped to USD 5.39 while the three-month spread has surged to near USD 14 highlighting the elevated premiums buyers are prepared to pay for immediate delivery. </li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> trades softer after being challenged on Friday by the firmer-than-expected core US inflation print and again today by the renewed spike in crude prices and its potential impact on inflation and bond yields. At USD 4,330, gold currently holds above key support around USD 4,300 but may face a challenging week amid continued focus on oil, yields and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A move back above USD 4,440 would be needed to ease the current downside pressure.</li> <li><strong>Copper</strong> has slipped further from last week’s record territory following the US inflation print, extending a correction below USD 6.50, a recent floor and the 50-day moving average. The reversal began last week when doubts emerged about Washington’s willingness to introduce refined copper tariffs amid mounting inflation and affordability concerns. Combined with an elevated speculative net long, the short-term deterioration in both the technical and fundamental outlook is currently adding to downside pressure.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries rose Friday after an odd reaction to the </strong><strong>August</strong><strong> US CPI data</strong><strong>.</strong><strong> </strong>Initially, yields spiked sharply higher, perhaps in reaction to the core month-on-month data coming in slightly above expectations. Then the reaction was more than erased as treasuries rallied and yields dropped back to their lowest level for the day before then weakening again and sending yields to new cycle highs for much of the yield curve.<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield closed the week four basis points higher at just below 4.63% before easing back slightly in early trading on Monday, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield edged less than a basis point higher to close just below 4.97%, eying the 5.00% round level that has only been tested once in the post-GFC era – back in late 2023.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yields </strong><strong>back</strong><strong>ed up again to start the week.</strong> While the front end of Japan’s government bond yield curve remains anchored ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday this week, which is expected to bring a 25-basis point rate hike, longer JGB yields have backed up in line with higher global yields elsewhere. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield nudged slightly higher and tested the key 3.00% again on Monday, just below the 30-year highs that traded early this month. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield rose traded two basis points above Friday’s close and near 4.07% in late trading Monday in Tokyo, still some distance below the 4.217% record high posted earlier this month.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar rebounded Monday after </strong><strong>a choppy reception of the US CPI data on Friday</strong>. <strong>EURUSD</strong> fell well below 1.1600 initially Friday on the reaction to the mostly in-line US CPI data (see more above), but rebounded from a 1.1569 low to close at 1.1599, but dipped again in early trading Monday to new multi-week lows just below 1.1570 as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and weak risk sentiment weighed. Similarly, <strong>USDJPY</strong> rebounded to the 154.00 area early Monday after trading as low as 153.24 on Friday.</li> <li><strong>The Swiss </strong><strong>f</strong><strong>ranc weakened Friday</strong><strong> and sharply early Monday before rebounding </strong><strong>slightly</strong>. After closing at a new high for the year above 0.9460, EURCHF briefly spiked above 0.9500 early Monday before settling back below Friday’s closing level. USDCHF rose above 0.8180 after closing at the highest level since July. The July high just above 0.8200 is the highest level in over a year as the franc has recently suffered from carry trade interest as global yield rises outpace those in Switzerland.</li> <li><strong>EURSEK nudged slightly higher to new </strong><strong>highs for the year above 11.25</strong> after initially gapping to lower to start trading this week in the wake of election results from Sunday’s national election that appear to give the edge to the “red block” of left-leaning parties, although a final tally has not yet been declared. </li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Fed decision playbook: Where FX and gold traders may look next</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 05:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>US CPI has strengthened the case for a September Fed hike</span></strong><span>, with markets now treating a 25bp move as the base case.</span></li> <li><strong><span>But a Fed hike does not automatically mean a broad USD rally.</span></strong><span> The ECB has already tightened, the BOJ could hike this week and the RBA remains hawkish.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The bigger question is whether this is one hike or the start of another tightening cycle.</span></strong><span> That distinction matters more for FX than the September decision itself.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>CPI has changed the Fed debate</span></strong></h3> <p><span>August US CPI rose <strong>0.4% month-on-month</strong>, while core inflation increased <strong>0.3%</strong>. The hotter print, following strong payrolls and elevated producer prices, has made a September Fed hike increasingly difficult to avoid.</span></p> <p><span>Markets now assign around an <strong>86% probability of a 25bp hike on Wednesday, September 16</strong>, with another move later this year increasingly being considered.</span></p> <p><span>That is supportive for the dollar — but it creates an important distinction for traders.</span></p> <p><strong><span>A September hike is increasingly the base case. A sustained hiking cycle is not.</span></strong></p> <p><span>For the dollar to get another meaningful leg higher, the Fed may need to do more than simply deliver the move markets already expect.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Trump versus the Fed: does it matter for FX?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>President Trump continues to argue that US rates should be among the lowest in the world, even as inflation is pushing the Fed in the opposite direction.</span></p> <p><span>In the very short term, that may actually make the Fed decision more important.</span></p> <p><span>If the Fed hikes despite political pressure, markets could read that as confirmation that policymakers remain focused on inflation. That should support front-end Treasury yields and the dollar.</span></p> <p><span>But there is a medium-term catch. Repeated political pressure on monetary policy can add to concerns around Fed independence, US institutional credibility and the longer-term dollar outlook.</span></p> <p><span>So the setup is increasingly <strong>tactically USD-positive, but harder to turn into a structural dollar-bull call.</strong></span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Where could traders position?</span></strong></h3> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Market</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Positioning view</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Key levels</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>EUR/USD</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>One of the cleaner expressions of additional Fed hawkishness, although the ECB is tightening too. Downside needs confirmation.</span></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>1.1635–1.1645</span></strong><span> is first resistance. Below, watch <strong>1.1555–1.1530</strong>, then <strong>1.1503</strong>. </span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>USD/JPY</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Less attractive as a straightforward USD-long trade. The pair has already broken below 154.78 and the BOJ could also tighten.</span></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>154.78–155.00</span></strong><span> is now resistance. Below, watch <strong>152</strong>, then <strong>150</strong>.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>AUD/USD</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>RBA hawkishness makes AUD more resilient, so this looks more like a breakdown trade than one to chase lower.</span></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>0.7070–0.7080</span></strong><span> is key support. Below opens <strong>0.7004</strong>. Upside resistance at <strong>0.7200</strong>, then <strong>0.7278</strong>.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Gold</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Higher real yields are the near-term risk, but inflation and geopolitical hedging continue to provide support. Particularly interesting if the Fed disappoints hawkish expectations.</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><strong><span>USD4,332</span></strong><span> is key support, followed by <strong>USD4,272</strong>. Upside resistance sits at <strong>USD4,539–4,574</strong>, then <strong>USD4,769</strong>.</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span></span></strong><strong ><span>Three Fed scenarios</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>1. 25bp hike + another hike remains firmly live</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Most USD-positive</span></strong></p> <p><span>This is the outcome that could generate another meaningful leg higher in the dollar because markets would need to price not just this week's hike, but a higher path for rates.</span></p> <p><strong><span>EUR/USD</span></strong><span> could test <strong>1.1530–1.1503</strong>, while <strong>AUD/USD</strong> would need to break below <strong>0.7070</strong> for downside momentum to accelerate.</span></p> <p><span>USD/JPY remains the less clean expression because the BOJ is also moving towards tighter policy.</span></p> <p><span>For <strong>gold</strong>, <strong>USD4,332</strong> becomes critical. A break could expose <strong>USD4,272</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>2. 25bp hike + cautious guidance</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Sell-the-fact risk</span></strong></p> <p><span>This may be the more interesting scenario.</span></p> <p><span>If the Fed hikes but describes the move as a limited response to recent inflation rather than the restart of a hiking cycle, US yields and the dollar could initially rise and then reverse.</span></p> <p><strong><span>EUR/USD</span></strong><span> could recover towards <strong>1.1645–1.1703</strong>, while <strong>AUD/USD</strong> may revisit <strong>0.7200</strong>.</span></p> <p><strong><span>USD/JPY</span></strong><span> could resume its decline towards <strong>152</strong>, particularly if markets simultaneously anticipate a hawkish BOJ.</span></p> <p><span>Gold could be one of the cleaner beneficiaries. Holding <strong>USD4,332</strong> would keep the recovery case alive, while <strong>USD4,539–4,574</strong> is the key breakout zone.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>3. Fed holds</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Biggest downside surprise for the USD</span></strong></p> <p><span>A hold would force markets to unwind a substantial amount of Fed hike pricing.</span></p> <p><span>That would likely mean lower front-end US yields, broad dollar weakness and a stronger initial reaction in gold.</span></p> <p><strong><span>USD/JPY</span></strong><span> may be especially vulnerable because US and Japanese policy expectations would be moving in opposite directions.</span></p> <p><span>EUR/USD could push back above <strong>1.1645</strong> towards <strong>1.1703</strong>, while AUD/USD could challenge <strong>0.7200</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>For gold, the focus would quickly shift towards <strong>USD4,539–4,574</strong>.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong ><span>Bottom line: trade the path, not just the hike</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Hotter inflation has strengthened the case for a Fed hike, but a hike alone may not be enough to deliver another broad USD rally.</span></p> <p><span>The market now needs to hear that the Fed is prepared to keep tightening.</span></p> <p><span>That leaves <strong>EUR/USD as one of the cleaner expressions of further Fed hawkishness</strong>, while USD/JPY is increasingly a two-central-bank trade rather than a simple US-yield story. AUD/USD needs to break 0.7070–0.7080 before the bearish case becomes more convincing.</span></p> <p><span>And for gold, USD4,332 is the near-term line in the sand, while USD4,539–4,574 is the zone that needs to break for momentum to turn more decisively bullish.</span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 14 September 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 01:57:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Saudi closes east-west pipeline. Core CPI above expectations.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Stocks up despite hotter core CPI; SpaceX weight in Nasdaq 100 doubles</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>JPY firm on BOJ hike bets; BOJ and FOMC decisions this week</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent surges to $108 on Middle East supply shock</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>10-year Treasury nears 5% and the yield curve flattens</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Saudi Arabia shut its East–West crude pipeline after drone attacks</span></strong></span><span>, halting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and with no restart date set, underscoring the line’s importance amid US–Iran tensions. Talks on a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor were postponed amid Saudi concerns, and Bahrain said it would not join.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Iran had planned to unveil a temporary Hormuz shipping lane deal on Monday, but Oman postponed the Persian Gulf foreign ministers’ meeting indefinitely.</span></strong></span></li> <li><span><strong><span>New Zealand’s PSI rose to 51.2 in August 2026 from 50.6</span></strong></span><span>, its strongest and third straight month of expansion since December 2025, with new orders and stocks growing but deliveries, employment, and activity/sales still contracting.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8</span></strong></span><span> in early September 2026, its weakest since May and below the 51.0 forecast. Sentiment is now 16% below pre</span>‑<span>Iran</span>‑<span>war levels and 13% below a year ago, with one</span>‑<span>year inflation expectations up to 4.6% and five</span>‑<span>year to 3.4%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US inflation stayed at 3.4% y/y in August 2026, unchanged from July and in line with forecasts</span></strong></span><span>, as gasoline and fuel oil surged while shelter and food inflation eased. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m, led by a 3.9% jump in gasoline. <strong>Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, above expectations, driven by higher communication</strong>, airfares, education, used cars, and lodging, partly offset by lower medical care and auto insurance. Core inflation eased to 2.4% y/y, the lowest since March 2021.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> US equities closed higher on Friday (12 Sep), with the S&P 500 ending the week at 7,657 and the Nasdaq 100 at 29,368, as the CPI print provided clarity on the Fed's path despite signalling higher rates. S&P 500 had fallen for four consecutive sessions prior to Friday's rebound, with energy the only sector reliably in the green during the week. Heading into Monday's open, S&P 500 futures are down ~0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures are sliding over 1%, driven by the AI slowdown call and further oil gains. <strong>Notable movers: SpaceX is set for a weighting boost in the Nasdaq 100 to ~2.82% from ~1.28% after a quarterly rebalance.</strong> Corning (GLW) fell ~3% post-market after filing a $2 billion equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs. Boeing (BA) made a final contract offer to its engineers union SPEEA including a 10% guaranteed wage increase. </li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.7% last week (ending 12 Sep), its worst weekly performance in roughly two months, as Brent crude breaking above $100/bbl reignited inflation concerns and rate-hike bets. On Friday (11 Sep), the index recovered 0.5%, led by banks, with Siemens (+2.5%) the top contributor. The DAX rose 0.8% on Friday to 25,569, with Infineon (+5.0%) the standout. Barclays strategists flagged building stagflation risk for European equities, recommending reduced exposure to gas-sensitive industries. Novartis suffered its worst day on record earlier in the week, falling as much as 11% after a late-stage clinical trial failure. </li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian equities are under pressure at Monday's open, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declining ~0.5%, as the AI slowdown call and surging oil prices weigh on sentiment. The Kospi is the notable underperformer, falling 3.0% to 6,702, with SK Hynix and other AI hardware names hit hard; South Korea also launched extended evening trading hours today through 8pm local time. The Nikkei 225 (64,011) and Hang Seng (24,806) are yet to open as of the time of writing, but both face headwinds from Nasdaq futures sliding over 1%. Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison's cancellation of a $7.5 billion stock sale is also adding to negative sentiment across the region's AI-linked names. Apple supplier stocks in Korea and Japan are being watched following Apple's launch of the foldable iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro last week.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Events this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Tuesday: Trip.com</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: FOMC rate decision</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: BOE rate decision</span></li> <li><span>Friday: BOJ rate decision</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>AUD</span></strong></span><span> is the session's laggard, slipping 0.29% vs. <strong>USD</strong> and 0.37% vs. <strong>JPY</strong>. Risk sentiment has soured on AI-related concerns — calls from leading AI executives over the weekend for a slowdown in frontier model development have weighed on risk assets broadly, with US equity futures also lower. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> is slightly softer at 153.49. A BOJ rate hike this week is widely expected given recent policy messaging, keeping the yen bid. Traders are also watching the Fed decision on Wednesday. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> was little changed through last week even after a hotter-than-expected US core CPI print, which has bolstered the case for a Fed rate hike. Bond markets are reportedly fully pricing in two rate increases by year-end. The DXY is modestly firmer this morning at 99.18, up +0.06% on the day.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>GBP</span></strong></span><span> is nearly flat vs. USD but faces headwinds — the Bank of England is seen as potentially falling behind the curve on inflation, particularly given rising energy prices from Middle East tensions. A BOE decision is also due this week.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> trades at $107.80/bbl (+3.1% today), while WTI is at $102.80/bbl (+2.7% today). Saudi Arabia's closure of the East-West pipeline following drone attacks, combined with the postponement of Iran-Gulf talks on Hormuz access, has driven the latest leg higher. Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie has warned of an "extremely high" risk of US gasoline prices hitting $5/gallon before the midterm elections.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>hovers around its 100-day moving average, easing after hotter-than-expected US inflation lifted odds of a Fed hike; bullion traded near $4,340 after a third weekly drop, core CPI rose 0.3% in August, and despite ending Friday higher it was still down 1.8% for the week. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The <strong>US 10-year yield</strong> stands at 4.951%, just shy of the psychologically important 5% level last seen in October 2023. The move has been driven by oil-led inflation fears, a hotter-than-expected core CPI print, and rising term premium. </li> <li>The 2-year yield is at 4.609%, reflecting near-fully priced Fed hike expectations, while the 30-year yield sits at 5.341% — levels last seen in 2007. The curve has been flattening on the front end post-CPI, with the 2s10s spread compressing as markets price in a credible Fed response to inflation rather than the start of a prolonged tightening cycle.</li> <li><strong>UK gilts</strong> have been among the most volatile in the global bond selloff, with 10-year gilt yields hitting 5.25% and 30-year yields reaching 5.89% — the highest since May 1998 — as traders price in multiple Bank of England rate hikes. </li> </ul> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span >For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" ><span>Inspiration</span></a><span >.<strong></strong></span><span ></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodity weekly: Oil shock reshapes commodity rally as yields surge and metals retreat</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 13:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Energy dominates the record rally: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">The BCOM Total Return Index heads for a fifth consecutive weekly gain and fresh record high, driven by surging crude, diesel and European natural gas</span><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">. </strong></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Oil shock becomes a macro risk:</strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58"> Middle East supply disruptions are lifting fuel prices, inflation concerns and bond yields, raising the prospect of further monetary tightening.</span><strong data-start="2" data-end="58"></strong></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Metals retreat as yields surge: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">Gold tests key support while copper's tariff-driven premium narrows sharply, despite longer-term fundamentals remaining supportive</span><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">. </strong></span></li> <li><span data-start="23" data-end="63" ><strong data-start="2" data-end="58">Crowded agriculture trade loses momentum: </strong><span data-start="2" data-end="58">Record speculative length leaves grains and softs increasingly dependent on fresh bullish catalysts after the recent rally stalled.</span></span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p> <p><span>The commodity rally has extended into another week, but beneath the headline strength an increasingly fragmented picture has emerged. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a fifth consecutive weekly gain and another record high, rising around 2% and lifting its year-to-date advance above 36%. Without the energy sector, however, the BCOM Index would have gained only around 13.5% this year, with grains and industrial metals making the main contributions.</span></p> <p><span>Once again, energy has been the main driver, gaining around 8% despite weakness in US natural gas. Crude oil has risen close to 8%, while diesel has jumped around 11% as already tight refined-product markets face another deterioration in the Middle East supply outlook. The biggest gainer of the week was EU natural gas, which rose 13% to a fresh three-year high amid a tight supply outlook ahead of the coming peak winter demand period.</span></p> <p><span>Elsewhere, however, the picture looks very different. Precious metals are heading for a third consecutive weekly decline of around 2%, industrial metals have weakened as well, falling by around 1.5%, while agriculture is broadly unchanged despite an extraordinary recent rush by hedge funds into grains and softs.</span></p> <p><span>This divergence highlights an important change in the current commodity narrative. The energy shock is no longer simply lifting commodity prices. Through its impact on global growth, inflation expectations, monetary policy and bond yields, it is increasingly creating headwinds elsewhere in the sector.</span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">One week total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Energy shock intensifies</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Brent crude surged more than 6% on Thursday as fighting across the Middle East intensified and concerns about Saudi Arabian supply added another layer of risk to an already severely disrupted market. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities forced some operations to halt, while unconfirmed reports suggested the strategically important East-West pipeline to Yanbu had been damaged. The pipeline, capable of transporting around 5 million barrels per day for export, has become particularly important during the disruption to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Saudi crude to reach Red Sea export terminals without passing through the narrow strait.</span></p> <p><span>Adding to the bullish momentum, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its crude production slumped to 6.23 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level since 1990. Together with multiple tit-for-tat attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz, the decline has further tightened an already stressed physical market.</span></p> <p><span>However, as mentioned on several occasions, focusing exclusively on Brent risks understating the scale of the energy squeeze. Refined products remain under even greater pressure, with diesel once again outperforming crude this week, trading well above USD 200 per barrel. Middle distillates sit at the heart of the global economy through trucking, shipping, aviation, agriculture, construction and industrial activity, meaning sustained high prices can transmit rapidly into broader inflation.</span></p> <p><span>This helps explain why the latest surge in oil has increasingly become a macroeconomic story rather than simply a commodity-market story. Some hopes now hinge on a meeting on Monday, when Gulf foreign ministers are due to meet their Iranian counterpart as Oman and Iran push to secure support for an arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent, products and EU natural gas priced in USD per barrel - Source: Bloomberg &Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 data-section-id="8mxf83" data-start="4138" data-end="4179"> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Oil and inflation send bond yields sharply higher</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Global bond markets suffered another sharp sell-off on Thursday as rising energy prices combined with hawkish signals from the European Central Bank to revive concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer.</span></p> <p><span>The ECB raised its core inflation forecasts for the next two years and upgraded next year's growth outlook, triggering a sharp sell-off in German bonds. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw yields rising sharply across the curve. The two-year yield surged more than 15 basis points to above 4.58%, a new cycle high, while the ten-year yield climbed above 4.96%, bringing the psychologically important 5% threshold back into focus.</span></p> <p><span>The sell-off came ahead of Friday's August CPI report, the final major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's 15–16 September meeting with the interest rate market putting the risk of a hike at 70% while increasingly pricing two additional hikes through December. </span></p> <p><span>A prolonged energy shock risks keeping inflation elevated even as higher borrowing costs increasingly weigh on economic activity. Markets are therefore testing policymakers' ability to contain renewed inflation pressure without creating broader financial stress.</span><strong ><span></span></strong></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Gold caught between geopolitical risk and rising yields</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The impact of this shift has been particularly visible in precious metals, with the latest surge in crude and bond yields driving gold towards, but not through, support around USD 4,300 and leaving it on course for a third consecutive weekly decline. At first glance, weakness in bullion during an intensifying Middle East conflict may appear counterintuitive. However, the transmission mechanism from geopolitics through energy prices and into bond markets currently provides a powerful offset to traditional safe-haven demand.</span></p> <p><span>Higher crude and fuel prices are raising inflation expectations, which in turn are lifting government bond yields and expectations for additional monetary tightening. With the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold increasing, geopolitical support has struggled to offset the pressure from higher yields. </span></p> <p><span>From a technical perspective, gold has returned towards the lower end of the range established following its August rebound. Support around USD 4,300 has so far prevented a deeper slide towards the established floor closer to USD 4,000. On the upside, the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,537, remains the key hurdle.</span></p> </h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot gold - Source: Saxo NOTE: Past performance is no guarantee for future returns</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The current correction does not necessarily undermine the longer-term constructive outlook. Central-bank demand remains strong, concerns about fiscal sustainability have not disappeared, and the latest energy shock may ultimately reinforce demand for inflation protection and portfolio diversification. In the short term, however, the direction of yields and the dollar remain dominant.</span></p> <p><span>Silver and platinum have suffered even greater losses this week, reflecting their additional exposure to the deterioration in industrial-metal sentiment.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Copper's tariff premium meets reality</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Copper reached fresh record highs in London and New York before suffering a sharp setback led by the High Grade future after Reuters reported that inflation and affordability concerns had stalled a US government decision on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports. Expectations of tariffs have played a major role in copper's rally this year. Traders rushed metal into the US ahead of a potential announcement, creating a record build in COMEX inventories while simultaneously tightening availability elsewhere.</span></p> <p><span>In the latest weekly update, some 71%, or 696,400 tonnes, of visible exchange-monitored copper inventories were sitting in the US, despite the country accounting for only a fraction of global consumption. Copper had effectively piled up in the wrong place.</span></p> <p><span>This week's sell-off therefore represents an unwinding of a policy-driven premium rather than a sudden disappearance of copper's underlying structural challenges. The New York premium over London has narrowed but has not disappeared, and it would likely need to shift into a substantial discount relative to London before metal begins moving back towards markets where physical availability remains tighter.</span></p> <p><span>Meanwhile, the longer-term copper story remains supported by constrained mine supply and rising consumption from power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and rapidly expanding AI and data-centre infrastructure. Collapsing treatment charges in China continue to underline the shortage of concentrate available to smelters.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Crowded agriculture trade loses momentum</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Agriculture provides another example of positioning becoming increasingly important. During the week to 1 September, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped to a record 1.37 million contracts, the highest since comparable data began in 2006, representing a nominal value of approximately USD 53 billion. The increase capped an extraordinary four-week period during which the aggregate position almost tripled as the Bloomberg Agriculture Index surged to a three-year high. Record net longs were established in several individual contracts, including corn, sugar, soymeal and cotton.</span></p> <p><span>Yet agriculture has struggled to extend its rally this week, with the grains sector trading broadly unchanged. Soybean reached a 2023 high as traders assessed China's purchases of US beans ahead of the expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. A rebound in wheat was offset by profit-taking in corn ahead of Friday's USDA WASDE report. The report will provide a clearer assessment of the damage caused by hot and dry conditions across the US Midwest this summer, with updated estimates for yields, production, inventories and export demand likely to help determine the next direction for grain prices.</span></p> <p><span>The market is also monitoring developments in the Black Sea, where the Russia-Ukraine war continues to threaten production, storage and export infrastructure. Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have so far produced no meaningful breakthrough, and the prospect of a more durable ceasefire has weighed on prices at times by raising expectations of improved export flows. The Black Sea remains one of the world's most important agricultural export hub and further Russian attacks have kept attention on the continuing disruption to the region's grain and vegetable-oil trade.</span></p> <p><span>Despite the latest pause following a strong run-up in prices, the underlying bullish themes and risks have, in our opinion, not disappeared. El Niño-related weather risks, Chinese buying, geopolitical disruption, strong demand and concerns about supply continue to provide support across parts of the sector. However, when positioning reaches such elevated levels, the hurdle for additional gains rises.</span></p> <p><span>Record speculative length means markets increasingly require fresh bullish news merely to sustain momentum. In its absence, profit-taking and long liquidation can amplify even relatively modest setbacks.</span></p> <p data-start="202" data-end="370"><em data-start="202" data-end="370"><strong>For information purposes only and not intended as a specific investment recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future returns.</strong></em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money net long position in grains and soft futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From commodity shock to macro shock</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The key development this week is not simply another record for the broad commodity index, but the increasingly powerful interaction between commodities and global financial markets. Energy remains the dominant source of strength, supported by physical tightness, geopolitical disruption and exceptionally strong refined-product markets. Higher energy prices are raising concerns about global growth, a key driver of commodity demand, while lifting inflation expectations, bond yields and expectations for additional monetary tightening. That is for now pressuring gold and other rate-sensitive hard assets while adding to the challenges facing industrial metals amid uncertainty over growth and trade policy.</span></p> <p><span>The critical question is shifting from how much energy supply has been disrupted to whether the resulting inflation shock is large enough to force central banks into additional tightening while financial conditions are already restrictive. Central banks may need to respond to second-round effects, such as higher wages, transport costs and services prices, even though the original shock comes from supply disruption rather than excessive domestic demand. Further rate increases could amplify stress in housing, credit and government finances, particularly in highly indebted economies. The longer the shock persists, the greater the risk that policymakers must choose between tolerating above-target inflation and accepting a sharper slowdown.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>9 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-hits-record-amid-weak-output-and-metal-piling-up-in-the-wrong-place-08092026" data-id="7D4C7EB1164F4CFAA7A24A7D7B1FD932" data-type="Article">Copper hits record amid weak output and metal piling up in the wrong place</a><br /> 8 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rangebound-as-weaker-dollar-offsets-rate-hike-and-inflation-risks-09092026" data-id="7676154B3FB8482284ABD5D94AEA5DE0" data-type="Article">Gold rangebound as weaker dollar offsets rate-hike and inflation risks</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/look-beyond-brent-to-see-the-true-scale-of-the-energy-squeeze-07092026" data-id="6C1F4401197547ECB036D3E069EAAF25" data-type="Article">Look beyond Brent to see the true scale of the energy squeeze</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-1-sept-2026-07092026" data-id="2192D5ECE789423E8FD23A4FD151714C" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 1 Sept 2026</a><br /> 4 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/energy-scarcity-powers-commodities-index-towards-a-record-high-04092026" data-id="6DA889CE3191440FB9A2DAFDD2030DF5" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Energy scarcity powers commodities index towards a record high</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Zinc</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Wheat</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Week overruns, one day reprices - Options Brief - 11 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The option market drew a range around last Friday’s close, and almost every market had spent it by Thursday. Now an inflation print lands on the final session, and the front of the curve has repriced for it.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 17.84 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (147.02) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 19.05</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The week was underpriced almost everywhere.</strong> On its final session the Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>91%</strong> of the range the option market drew around last Friday’s close, gold <strong>99%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>97%</strong>, while the S&P 500 has spent <strong>161%</strong> of its band and closed below it.</li> <li><strong>Premium went into today’s expiry for a third straight session.</strong> It prices <strong>63 points</strong>, or <strong>0.83%</strong>, against <strong>68</strong> yesterday, where the clock alone would have left about <strong>48</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The market is paying for a shared move, not a tail.</strong> Three-month implied correlation rose <strong>16.03%</strong> to <strong>12.38</strong> and dispersion eased to <strong>31.59</strong>, while the skew gauge fell to <strong>147.02</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market priced for this week, and how much of it each market has spent.</p> <p><strong></strong><em >Expected move to today’s 11 September expiry, drawn around the Friday 4 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Volatility uses the 16 September expiry, the next listed weekly. Derived from at-the-money option pricing, not a forecast; this week’s bands come from the live chain rather than a Friday-close snapshot, which was not available.</em></p> <ul> <li><em><strong>Three markets arrive at the last session with the week already spent.</strong></em> The Nasdaq 100 fund sits <strong>91%</strong> through its band, gold <strong>99%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>97%</strong>, with the inflation print still to land inside the same session. Energy is the outlier at <strong>58%</strong>.</li> <li><em><strong>Two markets finished outside the band entirely.</strong></em> The S&P 500 has covered <strong>161%</strong> and closed below its lower bound, volatility <strong>226%</strong> above its upper bound. In our view a band drawn on Friday and breached by Thursday says the option market priced the calm rather than the catalyst. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Brent rose more than <strong>6%</strong> on Thursday as fighting spread across the Middle East, with attacks on Saudi energy facilities halting some operations and Saudi Arabia telling OPEC that August output had fallen to <strong>6.23 million barrels a day</strong>, its lowest since 1990. US producer prices climbed <strong>0.4%</strong> on the month, taking the annual rate to <strong>5.4%</strong> against <strong>5.3%</strong> expected.</p> <p>Bond markets did the rest. The European Central Bank lifted its deposit rate 25 basis points to <strong>2.50%</strong> and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts, sending the German 2-year yield <strong>16 basis points</strong> higher. The US 2-year rose more than <strong>15 basis points</strong> to a cycle high above <strong>4.58%</strong> and the 10-year to above <strong>4.96%</strong>, with forward markets pricing better than a <strong>70%</strong> chance of a Federal Reserve hike next week.</p> <p>More in Saxo’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank">macro coverage</a> and today’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-above-100-lifts-yields-asia-slips-into-cpi---11-september-2026-11092026" target="_blank">Market Quick Take, 11 September 2026</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot, Thursday 10 September 2026 close</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Thursday 10 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,591.70</strong>, down 0.58% and lower for a fourth straight session. Dow <strong>52,069.22</strong>, down 0.61%. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,103.51</strong>, down 1.08%. Apple rose <strong>3.56%</strong> on its foldable handset while Nvidia lost <strong>2.37%</strong> and the semiconductor fund <strong>2.44%</strong>.</li> <li><strong >Europe (Thursday 10 September close):</strong><span > Stoxx 600 </span><strong >635.98</strong><span >, down 0.69% and at a two-month low. DAX </span><strong >25,361.15</strong><span >, down 0.84%, the CAC 40 </span><strong >0.49%</strong><span > lower and the AEX </span><strong >0.78%</strong><span >, with a hawkish central bank and higher energy costs weighing.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia (Friday 11 September session):</strong><span > the Kospi is </span><strong >6,854.67</strong><span >, down 2.55%, with the Korea fund off </span><strong >4.19%</strong><span > as memory names came under pressure. The Hang Seng sits at </span><strong >24,742.51</strong><span >, down 0.85%, and the CSI 300 </span><strong >1.59%</strong><span > lower at </span><strong >4,476.18</strong><span >.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent </span><strong >USD 108.65</strong><span > and WTI </span><strong >USD 103.35</strong><span > after Thursday’s surge, softer this morning on reports of Gulf talks. Gold futures </span><strong >USD 4,344.20</strong><span >, down 1.43%, with the gold fund off </span><strong >1.73%</strong><span > and the silver fund </span><strong >5.30%</strong><span > as copper’s tariff-driven fall spread across the complex. The US 2-year yield is </span><strong >4.594%</strong><span > and the 10-year </span><strong >4.975%</strong><span >. EURUSD </span><strong >1.1601</strong><span >, USDJPY </span><strong >154.37</strong><span >. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a><span > for costs and applicable charges.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Transitioning, VIX 17.84, with the S&P 500 </span><strong >0.16%</strong><span > below its 50-day moving average and 20-day realised volatility at </span><strong >8.5%</strong><span > and falling.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 10 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow:</strong> confirmed-opening premium in the large-cap technology group reached <strong>USD 392m</strong> and split <strong>58.7%</strong> to puts, which reads defensive until the composition is examined. Almost all of it sat in deep in-the-money September strikes crossed at mid, a shape closer to repackaging a holding than to paying for downside, while the only clean bought lines ran the other way, in calls on one large handset maker. In our view premium split and side quality point in opposite directions.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow:</strong> the broad tape carried <strong>USD 3.63bn</strong> of confirmed-opening premium with <strong>88%</strong> in puts, and the largest line was unambiguous, long-dated index protection lifted at the offer across two separate strike regions and partly financed further out. That is insurance bought into an inflation print, not a directional bet. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 11 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>17.84</strong>, up <strong>8.38%</strong></li> <li>VIX1D <strong>17.46</strong>, up <strong>52.49%</strong> · VIX9D <strong>17.70</strong>, up <strong>13.53%</strong></li> <li>VIX3M <strong>19.73</strong> · VIX6M <strong>21.17</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>22.23</strong>, the curve still upward sloping across the full tenor</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>The continuous front-month series reads <strong>19.05</strong>, a level belonging to the October contract after the roll, so no session comparison is drawn from it. Put-call parity on the <strong>16 September</strong> expiry gives a forward of <strong>18.03</strong>, a premium to spot of <strong>0.19</strong> points against <strong>0.60</strong> a session earlier</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>19.55</strong>, with the front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.975</strong>, so the curve holds its contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>147.02</strong>, down 2.23 on the session and still far above the 100 to 120 neutral zone</li> <li>COR3M <strong>12.38</strong>, up <strong>16.03%</strong></li> <li>DSPX <strong>31.59</strong>, down <strong>4.04%</strong>, the S&P 500 dispersion index</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>102.66</strong>, up <strong>8.63%</strong> · MOVE <strong>82.09</strong>, up <strong>6.98%</strong></li> <li>VXN <strong>23.33</strong>, up <strong>4.53%</strong></li> <li>GVZ <strong>28.48</strong>, up <strong>2.48%</strong></li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 September 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Session implied move.</strong></em> Today’s expiry prices <strong>63 points</strong>, or <strong>0.83%</strong>, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast, with the August consumer price report at <strong>14:30 CET</strong> inside that window. Yesterday’s same-day expiry carried <strong>40 points</strong>. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>Event implied range.</strong></em> That same <strong>11 September</strong> expiry was quoted at <strong>68 points</strong> yesterday and <strong>74</strong> the day before. One session has come off the clock, so flat-volatility decay alone would have left roughly <strong>48 points</strong>. The market has instead added about <strong>15</strong>, the third consecutive session it has paid up rather than let the clock work. Past today, the <strong>18 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>141 points</strong>, or <strong>1.85%</strong>, and spans the Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong></em> The skew gauge eased to <strong>147.02</strong> while three-month implied correlation rose <strong>16.03%</strong> to <strong>12.38</strong> and dispersion fell to <strong>31.59</strong>. In our view that describes a market buying a move everything takes part in rather than a crash in one corner of it. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</li> <li><em><strong>Correlation read.</strong></em> Crude volatility at <strong>60.76</strong> is <strong>3.4 times</strong> the equity gauge, wider than the <strong>3.0</strong> multiple of a session earlier, with gold volatility at <strong>28.48</strong> and bond volatility at <strong>82.09</strong>. In our assessment the equity gauge below <strong>18</strong> may remain the calmest reading in the macro complex, and it is the one with a scheduled catalyst inside the session.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li>UK July manufacturing production and trade balance, 08:00 CET</li> <li>International Energy Agency Monthly Oil Market Report, 10:00 CET</li> <li>US August consumer prices, headline and core, 14:30 CET</li> <li>European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks, 16:00 CET</li> <li>US September University of Michigan sentiment, 16:00 CET</li> <li>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 18:00 CET</li> <li>Kroger reports before the US open</li> <li>Ahead: the Federal Reserve on 15 and 16 September, and the Bank of Japan on 17 and 18 September</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our view the option market spent this week underestimating it. Bands drawn around Friday’s close have been used almost entirely by the Nasdaq 100 fund, gold and the bitcoin fund, and breached outright by the index and by volatility itself. The one market with room to spare is the one that caused the trouble.</p> <p>The response has been to buy the last day rather than mark the week down. Premium has gone into today’s expiry three sessions running, and the one-day gauge closed most of its gap to the 30-day measure in a single move.</p> <p>In our assessment the correlation reading is what makes today different from the four declines behind it, which were led by one commodity and one group of shares. An inflation print that decides a rate decision four days later is not selective, and the option market has spent the week’s last session pricing exactly that. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-bites-one-name-lifts---options-brief---10-september-2026-10092026" data-id="7487205D4EA84FB990529B5DDA4B3884" data-type="Article">Oil bites one name lifts - Options Brief - 10 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-day-drains-friday-fills---options-brief---9-september-2026-09092026" data-id="2710AA396670481E86ECD99921F4DED0" data-type="Article">Front day drains Friday fills - Options Brief - 9 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-run-front-end-firms---options-brief---7-september-2026-07092026" data-id="92D2390AB98944AE8AC2BFFCF4267F56" data-type="Article">Chips run front end firms - Options Brief - 7 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/crude-calms-cpi-day-gets-the-bid---options-brief---12-august-2026-12082026" data-id="1CF4623453544E0BB7A8C2022FDA9777" data-type="Article">Crude calms CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-above-100-lifts-yields-asia-slips-into-cpi---11-september-2026-11092026" data-id="BA221F872B4B4BC99A2BE06206C58C86" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil above 100 lifts yields Asia slips into CPI - 11 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---crude-oil-remains-focus-ecb-set-to-hike-rates---10-september-2026-10092026" data-id="0BDD2A58B280493093BB5CAD0FE0861B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Crude oil remains focus ECB set to hike rates - 10 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Yields explode higher, pressurizing the situation across markets.</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 10:33:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Oil spoils the plot ahead of US CPI.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/yields-explode-higher-pressurizing-the-situation-across-markets/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p><span> <ul> <li>John's <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-global-yields-explode-higher-but-jpy-steady-11092026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The FX Trader piece from today</a></span>, on currency moves and what to watch for next.</li> <li>Goldman Sachs says that <span><a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-global-bond-yields-are-expected-to-stay-elevated" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interest rates are set to remain higher</a></span> and outlines why.</li> <li>LA Times on how <span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-09-10/hollywood-fears-ai-future-china-is-already-living-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the AI future is already here for some forms of video entertainment in China</a></span>.</li> <li>Some <span><a href="https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2026/09/capital-and-nomos-the-political-economy-of-the-interregnum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">profound thinking on where we are in the "interregnum" as we transition away from the old world order and into the new one</a></span>. A taste: <em>"Gramsci’s interregnum, the “time of monsters” when the old is dying and the new cannot be born, has become a cliché of our political moment, which is usually a sign that it is true. But what it means precisely is this: the conceptual frameworks adequate to the old order have ceased to describe reality, and the frameworks adequate to the new order have not yet been assembled."</em></li> </ul> </span></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oracle vs Adobe: AI is rewarding scarcity and punishing uncertainty</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Oracle is turning artificial intelligence demand into real cloud revenue,</strong> but the bill for building capacity remains enormous.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Adobe’s artificial intelligence products are growing quickly, </strong>yet investors still want proof that adoption protects pricing power.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>The bigger lesson is simple:</strong> artificial intelligence creates value only when it improves economics or strengthens competitive advantages.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Oracle and Adobe reported earnings on 10 September 2026, but they offered investors two very different artificial intelligence stories.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle, once mainly known for databases, is spending heavily to become a major supplier of computing power. Adobe, the company behind Photoshop and Acrobat, already owns highly profitable software franchises but must defend them as AI makes content creation easier.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle needs AI to become big enough to justify the investment. Adobe needs AI to avoid making its products too easy to replace. The earnings did not settle either investment case. They did, however, make the questions much clearer.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Oracle finally shows the receipt</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Oracle’s strongest answer came from its cloud infrastructure business, where revenue jumped 121% to 7.4 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>That matters more than the headline earnings beat. Oracle has spent the past year asking investors to accept huge spending today in exchange for much larger AI revenue tomorrow. This quarter offers evidence that tomorrow is starting to arrive.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity during the quarter and signed more than 30 billion USD of additional AI cloud contracts. Remaining performance obligations, essentially contracted revenue still waiting to be recognised, reached 664 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>Demand therefore looks less theoretical.</span></p> <p><span>But backlog is not cash. Oracle spent 28.5 billion USD on capital expenditure during the quarter, mostly on data-centre equipment. Customers increasingly provide prepayments or hardware themselves, which helps, but Oracle still needs to turn enormous infrastructure commitments into attractive returns.</span></p> <p><span>The investor question has shifted from “is there demand?” to “can Oracle deliver it profitably?” </span><span >That is progress. It is not the finish line.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Adobe has the users. Now it needs the economics</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Adobe faces almost the opposite problem.</span></p> <p><span>Revenue rose 13% to 6.76 billion USD, while annual recurring revenue from its newer AI-first products grew more than 150%. Adobe also passed one billion monthly active users across its creativity and productivity products.</span></p> <p><span>Those are hardly signs of a business being abandoned.</span></p> <p><span>Yet its fourth-quarter revenue outlook came in slightly below expectations. That small miss matters because investors are not really debating whether Adobe can add AI features. They are debating whether those features strengthen Adobe’s competitive advantage.</span></p> <p><span>There is an important difference.</span></p> <p><span>If AI makes Photoshop, Acrobat and Adobe’s other tools more useful, customers may spend more and become harder to lose. But if AI simply allows users to produce good-enough images, videos and documents through cheaper alternatives, Adobe may gain AI usage without gaining much pricing power.</span></p> <p><span>That makes new chief executive Anil Chakravarthy’s task unusually clear when he takes over on 1 December: turn AI adoption into stronger economics, not simply more AI.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>One technology, two very different tests</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Oracle and Adobe illustrate why “AI exposure” tells investors surprisingly little.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle sells something increasingly scarce: computing capacity. Its challenge is capital intensity. Adobe sells software with historically attractive margins. Its challenge is defending scarcity as AI lowers the cost of creating digital content.</span></p> <p><span>For Oracle, investors should watch whether revenue and cash flow catch up with infrastructure spending. For Adobe, the better signal is whether AI products support stronger recurring revenue, customer retention and pricing.</span></p> <p><span>The useful question is therefore not whether a company uses AI. </span><span >It is whether AI makes the customer relationship stronger and the underlying economics better.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Risks worth watching</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Oracle’s biggest risk is execution. Data centres are expensive, technically complex and dependent on chips, electricity and construction. Rising spending without equally strong revenue conversion would be an early warning sign.</span></p> <p><span>Adobe faces competitive and leadership risk. AI-first rivals can move quickly, while Adobe is changing chief executive and still searching for a permanent finance chief. Strong AI usage combined with weak guidance or greater discounting would suggest adoption is not translating into enough economic value.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Follow conversion:</span></strong><span> for Oracle, compare contracted demand with actual revenue, cash flow and capital spending. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Separate usage from monetisation:</span></strong><span> for Adobe, rapid AI adoption matters more if recurring revenue and pricing remain resilient. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch the competitive advantage:</span></strong><span> ask whether AI makes each company harder to replace or simply more expensive to operate. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The two unfinished AI stories</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Oracle and Adobe started this earnings season with opposite questions, and they finish it with those questions narrowed rather than answered.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle has provided stronger evidence that AI demand is big enough. It still has to prove that building all this capacity produces attractive returns. Adobe has shown that customers are using its AI products. It still has to prove those products make customers willing to keep paying Adobe.</span></p> <p><span>That is the more useful lesson for investors. AI is not one investment theme. It is a stress test for every business model. The eventual winners will not simply use more AI. They will turn it into stronger customer relationships, better economics and, eventually, more cash.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Global yields explode higher, but JPY steady.</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:58:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Hawkish ECB fails to support EUR.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>The latest </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>An explosion higher in bond yields in Europe and the US Thursday – US CPI next</span></strong><strong><span>. </span></strong><span>Ahead of the ECB meeting, crude oil prices were already surging higher and sending the US dollar higher as well amidst cratering risk sentiment. And then the ECB delivered a hawkish surprise on top of its expected 25-bp rate hike that sent yields ripping higher the world over. The German 2-year yield surged a stunning 16 basis points after the ECB meeting on the one-two of the ECB’s raised headline and core CPI forecasts for next year and 2028 and the multi-dollar rise in crude oil prices. That was the largest rise at the front end of the Eurozone yield curve in over 18 months. The guidance at the Lagarde press conference brought the odds of an October ECB meeting hike sharply higher at above 75%. Longer yields also rose sharply to new cycle highs. And note that the Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened several basis points to 94 basis points, its widest since the 2010-12 Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. </span></p> <p><span>EURUSD price action was rather choppy yesterday through early today, if with a surprisingly low amplitude. Initially, it was falling to new lows for the week on the risk-off tone ahead of the ECB meeting before the hawkish surprise lifted it back higher within the range, only to have it settle back lower again. Even EURGBP was steady, showing that central bank signals are not much of a driver here, again largely because yield moves across most major economies ex Japan were in parallel (more on that below USDJPY chart discussion!). CHF was only slightly weaker as EURCHF nudged to new highs for the year and the low-yielding SEK didn’t like the higher yield/risk-off tone, with EURSEK surging above 11.25 at one point this morning for the first time in over a year. Elsewhere, AUD caught a sudden cold on the risk-off tone and as copper prices plunged just after having poked at record highs.</span></p> <p><strong><em><span>Key takeaways and what to watch for from here</span></em></strong><em><span>: While the ECB was hawkish, the yield rise in the US and Europe was of similar magnitude and the US dollar tends to remain steady in times of ugly risk sentiment, which was certainly the case for much of yesterday – hence the EURUSD choppiness and still-muted trading range. Today’s August CPI release is the latest test for US treasuries and the USD. If a higher print is seen as cementing next week’s FOMC rate hike (which is still stubbornly not fully priced in at around 70% odds) and risk sentiment remains on the defensive, the US dollar could keep the upper hand versus the Euro. The hope for USD bears has to be for a CPI print that is either in-line with or below expectations. The crude oil price is a critical independent variable as well here, and hopes that today’s six-member Gulf Cooperation Council meeting with Iranian officials Monday in Oman on a deal to get shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz bear fruit (this has helped crude oil come well off overnight highs.)</span></em></p> <p><strong>Chart focus: USDJPY surprisingly steady<br /> </strong>Yesterday’s USDJPY action was remarkable for its lack of greater volatility as US treasury yields exploded higher on higher crude oil prices and the ECB hawkishness. In cycles past, one would have expected profound JPY weakness, but instead we got a mild backfilling to as high as 154.67 Thursday before it rolled back over – this is a comfort for JPY bulls even if further backfilling remains a risk here is global. There is an added twist on why the JPY may be <span></span>in a different place relative to cycles past and more insulated from global bond market volatility: the idea that Japan’s savers may now bring their savings back home. With the world’s large net international investment position (NIIP) surplus, that’s a lot of potential flow and therefore receding demand for bonds elsewhere. At the margin, the size of yesterday’s move in global yields ex Japan may already be a sign of this concern. Technically, the break of the 155.00 so far looks confirmed, with yesterday’s 154.67 high an important minor resistance level. We have the downtrend case supported in the Ichimoku weekly framework by the lagging span line breaking down through the price bars (the green line circled in red). The more profound down-trend indicator in the bigger picture would be taking out the <em>kumo</em> or cloud, the bottom of which is skating along now just above 150.00 but rises above the 2026 low of 152.10 toward the end of the year. Do we get lost in limbo for a while here to digest this large move lower or does the downside momentum pick up again soon?</p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span> <p><strong><span>Looking ahead</span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> </span></strong><span> <p><span>Today’s US CPI likely either tilts the odds toward more certainty of a rate hike at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting or keeps us all in the dark, enhancing the drama around that event. Meanwhile, global bond yields and the moves in crude oil prices are in the driver’s seat. Also up next week we have a Bank of England meeting on Thursday that is expected (priced into forward market expectations) to bring guidance for a new rate hike cycle to begin at the November meeting, with low odds of a move already next week.</span></p> </span><strong><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> </span></strong><span> <p><span>Finally, there is the Bank of Japan on Friday that is fully priced for a 25-basis point hike, with uncertainty around the pace of hikes beyond that meeting. The degree of hawkishness at that meeting may have a lot to do with where USDJPY is trading at the time. In other words, USDJPY 155+ could mean a very hawkish BoJ, while USDJPY 152 or below could mean a steady-relative-to-market expectations BoJ.</span></p> </span><span> </span></p> </p> <p><strong>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.</strong><br /> <span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p> <p><span> <p><span>The JPY strength still dominates despite the couple of days of consolidation since the peak in the action earlier this week. Elsewhere, SEK is at the bottom of the pack and the US dollar downside momentum is fading fast here – today’s CPI looks pivotal for the USD outlook. </span></p> </span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>In the individual pairs, all JPY crosses have well established downtrends. The next question is around the broader US dollar picture, should one emerge after today’s CPI print or next week’s FOMC meeting as it won’t take much more persistent downside to send GBPUSD and EURUSD over the edge into a negative trend from here. The same goes for gold and silver, which are under pressure from the rocketing higher in global yields.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil above $100 lifts yields, Asia slips into CPI - 11 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 06:18:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Crude and fuel spike and a firm producer price print kept energy costs in focus ahead of CPI</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities extended losses as oil and yields climbed, Asia sold off sharply as tightening fears spread</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> One-day expectations jumped as traders positioned into the inflation report and next week's rate decision</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot steadied overnight while miners and platform names extended the previous session's decline</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude spike sends precious metals lower while HG copper slumps on tariff doubts </li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Bond yields explode higher in Europe and the US on hawkish ECB, crude oil price surge.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: EUR fails to get support from hawkish ECB. JPY steadies and strengthens despite surge in global bond yields.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Middle East supply risk </strong><strong>deepens</strong><strong>.</strong> Iran and the US are settling in for a prolonged conflict, with little sign of a near-term truce with crude oil spiking higher on Thursday after fighting between Yemen-based Houthi militants and Saudi-backed forces intensified, adding to the disruption already affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping. </li> <li><strong>US producer prices rose 0.4% month on month in August</strong>, the largest increase in three months, driven by a 1.1% jump in goods prices that included a <strong>24.1% surge in diesel</strong>. Annual producer price inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%, above the 5.3% expected, with the core rate at 4.6%.</li> <li><strong>Bond bears are pushing the 10-year Treasury yield towards 5%</strong> ahead of US inflation data that could prove decisive for Fed rate-hike expectations. Yields are already at their highest since 2023 and approaching levels last seen in 2007, driven by rising oil prices and inflation concerns. A break above 5% would raise concerns about US debt sustainability while adding further pressure on equities.</li> <li><strong>The European Central Bank raised rates and Japanese sentiment strengthened.</strong> The <strong>ECB lifted the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the deposit rate to 2.50%</strong> with a 25 basis point increase, citing persistent inflation linked to Middle East tensions. It held its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% but raised 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1%. President Lagarde described growth risks as tilted down and inflation risks up, with policy set meeting by meeting. In Japan, the <strong>large manufacturers' business survey index rose to 7.6% in the third quarter</strong> from -1.8%, far above the 2.5% forecast, while producer prices rose 7.6% year on year. <strong>Today's US consumer price report is the last major inflation reading before the 15 to 16 September Federal Reserve meeting</strong>, with headline inflation expected at 0.4% on the month and core at 0.2%. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Jul. Manufacturing Production</li> <li>0600 – UK Jul. Visible Trade Balance</li> <li>0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report</li> <li>1230 – US August CPI</li> <li>1400 – ECB President Lagarde to speak</li> <li>1400 – US September University of Michigan Sentiment</li> <li>1600 – World Agriculture Supply and Demand estimates (WASDE)</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Next week</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Trip.com</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Lennar</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Carnival Corporation, Next</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.1% and the Dow dropped 0.6%, marking a fourth straight decline for the S&P 500 as higher oil prices and Treasury yields revived inflation concerns. Apple gained 3.6% after positive analyst reactions to its new foldable iPhone, while Cooper Companies sank 14.7% after cutting full-year guidance and copper miners fell sharply on tariff uncertainty. After hours, Oracle beat expectations as cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121%, while Adobe also topped estimates as AI-first annual recurring revenue grew more than 150%. Investors now turn to US inflation data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% to a two-month low, while the DAX dropped 0.8%, the FTSE 100 lost 0.6% and the CAC 40 declined 0.5% as higher oil prices and a hawkish European Central Bank kept pressure on equities. Associated British Foods fell 7.9% after weak Primark comparable sales, while ASML lost 1.6% and copper-linked miners declined sharply on US tariff uncertainty. Energy provided some shelter, with BP gaining 1.4% as crude prices surged. Attention now shifts to how persistent energy-driven inflation could shape the next round of European rate decisions.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities fell sharply on Friday as the global bond selloff and oil near USD 110 reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.5%, the Hang Seng fell almost 1% and the Kospi declined 2.5% in early trade, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan lost 1.8%. South Korean memory leaders SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics came under pressure after DeepSeek launched its V4.1-Flash model, adding concerns that more efficient AI architectures could reduce memory intensity, while Japanese chip-related shares also sold off. US inflation data later today is the next major test for global rate expectations.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 17.84 | VIX FUTURES: 19.05 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (147.02) | MOVE: 82.09 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crude above USD 100 and a two-year yield at a 2024 high drove a fourth straight S&P 500 decline. <strong>Cash VIX rose 8.38% to 17.84</strong>, <strong>VIX1D jumped 52.49% to 17.46</strong> ahead of today's inflation print, VIX9D 13.53% to 17.70 and VVIX 8.63% to 102.66.</li> <li><strong>The cash curve holds contango</strong> to 22.23 at one year, SKEW 147.02 and <strong>MOVE 6.98% higher at 82.09</strong>, while crude volatility rose 21.89% to 60.76. SPX options imply <strong>63 points (0.83%) today and 141 points (1.85%) to 18 September</strong>, which spans the Federal Reserve decision. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~76,838 (+0.38%) | ETHEREUM ~2,445 (+0.29%) | IBIT 43.68 (-1.38%) | ETHA 18.56 (-0.11%) | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Spot held a narrow range overnight after Thursday's slide below USD 77,000, while the US-listed complex fell with equities and rising yields. <strong>Cipher lost 5.68%</strong>, Riot 5.07% and Marathon 4.11%, with <strong>Strategy down 3.12%</strong>, Iren 3.81% and Coinbase 1.40%. Reported forced liquidations across the market reached about USD 568 million in 24 hours.</li> <li><strong>Spot bitcoin funds still drew about USD 987 million of net inflows in the week to 4 September</strong>, a third consecutive weekly gain, taking August's total to roughly USD 3.5 billion, the strongest month since September 2025.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a fifth consecutive weekly gain and a fresh record high, rising 2.7% on the week and lifting its year-to-date advance above 37%. Once again, energy has been the main driver, gaining 8% despite a 4% drop in natural gas, led by a 12% rally in diesel and 10% gains in crude oil. Elsewhere, precious metals are heading for a third weekly decline amid continued pressure from rising bond yields and rate-hike expectations. Industrial metals are also lower, while agriculture is close to unchanged.</li> <li><strong>Brent crude surged more than 6% on Thursday</strong> as fighting intensified across the Middle East, with Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities forcing some operations to halt. Unconfirmed reports overnight suggested the strategically important East-West pipeline to Yanbu, capable of carrying around 5 million b/d for export, had been damaged. In addition, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its August production slumped to 6.23 million b/d, the lowest since 1990.</li> <li>Prices are slightly softer today after the FT reported that Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday, as Oman and Iran seek regional backing for a temporary agreement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting would be the first at this level since the war began, underscoring the growing urgency to restore more reliable maritime flows through the Gulf.</li> <li><strong>Copper slumped more than 5% in New York and 3% in London</strong> after Reuters reported that inflation and affordability concerns have stalled a US government decision on whether to impose tariffs. Expectations that Washington may introduce import duties on refined copper have fuelled a sharp rally this year, amplified by an underlying long-term supply-demand imbalance as ageing mines struggle to keep pace with rising consumption from data centres, renewable energy and power grids.</li> <li><strong>Gold fell </strong><strong>towards </strong><strong>support</strong><strong> </strong><strong>near </strong><strong>USD 4</strong><strong>,</strong><strong>300</strong>, weighed down by surging crude and fuel prices, higher bond yields and rising rate-hike expectations. Copper's tariff-driven sell-off added pressure to silver and platinum, which both tumbled 6.3%. Besides developments in oil, the dollar and bond yields, traders will be watching today's CPI release, the final major inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's 15–16 September meeting. </li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Global </strong><strong>bond yields exploded higher Thursday </strong><strong>on a combination of ECB hawkishness and a fresh large surge higher in </strong><strong>oil prices</strong><strong>. </strong>As the ECB upped its core inflation forecasts for the coming two years and raised GDP estimates for next year, the benchmark German 2-year Schatz yield rose all of sixteen basis points, the largest single-day gain in the yield in over 18 months. The benchmark 10-year German Bund bolted another six basis points higher to close just above the round 3.50% level, a new 17-year high. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread below several basis points wider Thursday to close near 94 basis points, the highest since the 2010-12 Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.</li> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rushed higher as well, just a day after the US Treasury announced an increase in its monthly buybacks for the coming month</strong><strong> and ahead of today’s US August CPI release</strong>, which is seen as important for next Wednesday’s FOMC decision on whether to hike rates. With the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rushing over 15 basis point higher to close at a new cycle high above 4.58%, the forward expectations are now over 70% in favour of a hike next week and see two hikes in total as likely through the December FOMC meeting. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield rose 12 basis points to above 4.96% Thursday, just below the 5.00% area that was the highest level reached in 2023 since before the global financial crisis in 2007. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Currency market volatility was rather muted given the huge moves in interest rates yesterday</strong>. <strong>EURUSD</strong> was selling off ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday, perhaps as a rush higher in oil prices at the time was pressuring risk sentiment globally, <strong>sending the </strong><strong>US dollar </strong><strong>broadly </strong><strong>higher</strong>. The ECB hawkishness only saw <strong>EURUSD</strong> steadying by the end of the day, trading near 1.1610 early Friday after a 1.1592-1.1642 range Thursday</li> <li><strong>JPY cross</strong><strong> volatility was surprisingly muted</strong> as the enormous yield rises in Europe and the US at the front end of the yield curve were not repeated in Japan overnight. USDJPY did squeeze as high as 154.67 before drifting back to 154.08 by early Friday in Europe. </li> <li>The sharp rise in bond yields Thursday saw <strong>the </strong><strong>Swiss franc weake</strong><strong>r</strong> and <strong>E</strong><strong>URCHF</strong> advancing to marginal new cycle highs above 0.9430, the highest level in over a year. The low yielding Swedish krona was also punished as <strong>EURSEK</strong> rose clear of 11.25 at one point, its highest level in nearly 14 months.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>What Saxo clients are trading: August’s biggest shifts</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> <p><strong>Summary: AI broadened beyond chips, while investor attention shifted from Europe and Hong Kong towards commodity-heavy markets.</strong></p> <p><span >Every month, we look at how trading behaviour among Saxo clients is changing — both the </span><strong >number of clients trading</strong><span > and the </span><strong >number of trades placed</strong><span > — to see where investor attention is accelerating, fading or moving next.</span></p> <p>Here’s what stood out in August compared with July.</p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong>The stocks getting more attention</strong></h2> <p>A handful of stocks saw trading activity more than double in August:</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td > <p><strong>Stock</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>Change in trades</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>What caught our eye</strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong>Moderna</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+506%</strong></p> </td> <td > <p>A sharp return of event-driven biotech interest</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong>AppLovin</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+168%</strong></p> </td> <td > <p>Investors returned to high-growth AI and ad-tech</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong>Coherent</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+157%</strong></p> </td> <td > <p>AI interest broadened into optical connectivity</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong>Palantir</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+107%</strong></p> </td> <td > <p>Renewed participation in a major AI software name</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong>Salesforce</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+101%</strong></p> </td> <td > <p>Interest returned to profitable enterprise software</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong>TeraWulf</strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong>+63%</strong></p> </td> <td> <p >Growing attention on power and computing infrastructure</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Biggest mover: Moderna jumps more than 500%</strong></h3> <p><strong>Moderna was the standout stock of the month, with trade counts rising over 500% from July.</strong></p> <p>The scale of the move suggests investors returned quickly to a stock where clinical, regulatory and commercial developments can create sharp changes in sentiment and volatility.</p> <p>Importantly, this looks more like a <strong>company-specific biotech story</strong> than a wider healthcare rotation, with activity across the broader biopharma sector remaining relatively stable.</p> <p>The question now is whether interest persists into September or whether August proves to be a short-lived, catalyst-driven spike.</p> <p>Two broader trends also emerged from the data.</p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Trend 1: AI interest is broadening — but investors are getting more selective</strong></h3> <p>Overall software activity remained softer, but several individual AI-linked names moved sharply higher.</p> <p>Trading in <strong>AppLovin rose 168%, Palantir 107% and Salesforce 101%</strong>, while <strong>Coherent rose 157%</strong> and <strong>TeraWulf 63%</strong>.</p> <p>The message is not simply that investors are returning to tech. Instead, attention appears to be moving <strong>beyond the chipmakers and towards different parts of the AI value chain</strong> — software monetisation, optical networking, data-centre connectivity and computing infrastructure.</p> <p>At the same time, weakness in the broader software category suggests investors are becoming more selective rather than buying the sector indiscriminately.</p> <p><strong>What we’re watching:</strong> Whether September brings a wider pickup in application software, networking and other AI infrastructure names.</p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Trend 2: Attention shifted from Europe and Hong Kong towards commodity-heavy markets</strong></h3> <p>One of the clearest regional shifts came outside the US.</p> <p>Trading activity weakened across markets including the <strong>UK, Germany and Hong Kong</strong>, while activity on <strong>Canadian exchanges jumped 27% month-on-month and Australia rose around 6%</strong>.</p> <p>That contrast matters.</p> <p>Canada’s increase was led partly by precious-metals companies including <strong>First Majestic Silver, Discovery Mining, B2Gold and Aya Gold & Silver</strong>. Australia saw broader interest across miners, property-related companies and the domestic equity market.</p> <p>This suggests Saxo clients were increasingly looking towards markets offering greater exposure to <strong>gold, silver, mining and real assets</strong>, rather than some of the European and Asian markets where activity was fading.</p> <p>Why? Commodity-heavy markets can offer a different set of return drivers at a time when investors are looking beyond concentrated US technology exposure. Rising interest in precious metals and resource stocks may also be drawing attention towards exchanges where these companies make up a much larger part of the opportunity set.</p> <p>The shift is still early — Canada and Australia came from smaller July bases — but the relative change in attention is worth watching.</p> <p><strong>What we’re watching:</strong> Whether activity continues moving towards miners and resource-rich markets, or whether August proves to be mainly a precious-metals-driven spike.</p> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong >What August tells us</strong></h2> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><strong>AI is broadening:</strong> attention is extending from chips into software, optics and computing infrastructure.</p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong>Investors are becoming more selective:</strong> a few high-conviction software names are gaining strongly even while the wider sector remains soft.</p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong>Regional interest is rotating:</strong> activity weakened in the UK, Germany and Hong Kong while Canada and Australia gained, with commodities and precious metals an important part of the shift.</p> </li> </ul> <p>September will tell us whether these are one-month spikes — or the start of a more meaningful change in where investors are looking for their next opportunity.</p> <p><em >Trading activity reflects Saxo client behaviour and does not necessarily indicate net buying, conviction or future performance. Month-on-month changes can also be amplified by a low starting base.</em></p> </h2></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span></span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>Micron Technology Inc.</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>Marvell Technology Group Ltd</span> <span>Palantir Technologies</span> <span>Snowflake</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 11 September 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 01:44:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <span data-contrast="none" ><strong>K</strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" ><strong>ey points:</strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">Houthis seized strategic seaport. ECB raises rates and US PPI rises</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >Oracle rallies 4% after-hours on Q1 beat</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" ><span data-ccp-char>Dollar strengthens on PPI, oil surge; </span><span data-ccp-char>G10, EM FX broadly weaker</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >WTI spikes to break above $100</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >2Y +15bp to 4.582% (highest since 2024); biggest selloff since Apr 2025</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1148807567" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{170}"><span data-contrast="auto">------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="1433261995" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{172}"></p> <p paraid="955697951" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{176}"><span data-contrast="none"><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span data-contrast="none"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <p paraid="2144192587" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{178}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><strong><span>Macro:</span><span data-ccp-char></span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Iranian media reported that the Houthis are nearing full control of the strategic waterway</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none">, including <span data-ccp-char>Zaqar</span><span data-ccp-char> and Mayun islands, the Al-Omari military base, and Al Mukha city.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Japan’s large manufacturers’ BSI rose to 7.6% in Q3 2026 from -1.8% in Q2</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, far above the 2.5% forecast and the fastest gain since Q4 2021. Sentiment is expected to ease but stay positive at 5.8% in Q4 and 4.9% in Q1 2027. The BoJ lifted GDP forecasts to 0.6% for FY2026 and 0.8% for FY2027, and raised its FY2027 inflation forecast to 2.4<span data-ccp-char>%,</span><span data-ccp-char> warning inflation may exceed its 2% target.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>Japan’s producer prices rose 7.6% y/y in August 2026</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, just below July’s revised 7.7% but above the 7.4% forecast, reflecting continued commodity and energy cost pressures and broad-based gains across sectors. Month-on-month, PPI fell 0.2%, the first decline in a year, after a 0.4% rise in July.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>US producer prices rose 0.4% m/m in August 2026, the largest increase in three months</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, driven by a 1.1% jump in goods prices, including a 24.1% surge in diesel and higher gasoline and jet fuel prices, partly offset by a 0.5% drop in residential electric power. Services edged up 0.1%. Annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% (vs 5.3% expected). Core PPI increased 0.2% m/m and 4.6% y/y.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>The ECB raised rates by 25 bps in September, lifting the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the deposit rate to 2.5%</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, citing persistent inflation from Middle East tensions. It kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% but raised 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1%, while upgrading growth to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 (2028 unchanged at 1.5%). Lagarde said growth risks are tilted down and inflation <span data-ccp-char>risks up</span><span data-ccp-char>, with policy set </span><span data-ccp-char>meeting by meeting</span><span data-ccp-char>.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>US </span><span data-ccp-char>initial</span><span data-ccp-char> jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 206,000 in early September 2026</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >, near historic lows and close to the 205,000 <span data-ccp-char>forecast</span><span data-ccp-char>. Continuing claims edged down to 1,774,000, below expectations, </span><span data-ccp-char>signaling</span><span data-ccp-char> a still-tight </span><span data-ccp-char>labor</span><span data-ccp-char> market despite recent payroll declines. Federal employee claims rose by 51 to 388 amid plans to shrink the public sector.</span></span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1726523305" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{182}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>US:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,591.70 on Thursday, its fourth consecutive session of losses and the lowest close since 31 July. Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1% and the Dow Jones shed 316 points (-0.6%) to 52,064. Micron (-4.9%) and Cooper Cos (-14.7%), after cutting full-year guidance) led declines. Apple rose +3.2% on positive analyst sentiment. Materials was the worst sector, with copper stocks hit hard (Freeport McMoRan -8.0%, Southern Copper -7.0%) on a report that the White House has yet to decide on refined copper tariffs. <strong><span data-contrast="auto">In after-hours trading, Oracle surged 4% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.92 (vs. $1.75 est.) and cloud infrastructure revenue of $7.4 billion (+121% y/y), beating estimates.</span></strong> <strong><span data-contrast="auto">Adobe beats Q3 revenue and earnings estimates on AI product demand, with recurring revenue grew more than 150% yoy.</span></strong></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span data-contrast="auto"></span></strong></span><span><strong><span>EU:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > European equities fell for a third consecutive session on Thursday, weighed by surging oil prices and the ECB's hawkish tone. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7% to 635.97, its lowest since 8 July, led lower by industrials and mining stocks. The DAX fell 0.8% to 25,361, the FTSE 100 declined 0.6% to 10,608 — its fifth straight losing session — and France's CAC 40 retreated 0.5%, erasing all year-to-date gains amid growing fiscal deficit concerns ahead of the 2027 presidential election. ASML fell 1.6%, KGHM Polska Miedz dropped 8.2% (copper tariff uncertainty), and Associated British Foods fell 7.9% after Primark comparable sales missed estimates. Energy and financials were the lone bright spots, with Maersk and Frontline hitting 52-week highs on surging tanker rates.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span><strong><span>Asia:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" > Asian equities are broadly lower on Friday morning, tracking Thursday's Wall Street selloff driven by surging oil prices and elevated Treasury yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4% at the open, led by South Korea and Japan. The Kospi opened down 3.3% to 6,802.50, compounded by DeepSeek's release of its V4.1-Flash model — which reportedly slashes HBM memory requirements significantly — hitting South Korean memory names SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Japan's Topix fell 2.2% to 3,967. The Hang Seng closed down 1.3% to 24,954 on Thursday, with Alibaba (-2.6%) and Weichai Power (-7.1%) leading declines; HK markets are expected to open lower Friday. The STI (5,689.75) had been supported by strong August trading volumes, with SGX securities daily average value up 35% year-on-year, though the index faces headwinds from the regional risk-off tone. Bonds across Asia are also under pressure as 5-year Treasury yields reprice higher.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1258694221" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{186}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"> strengthened broadly on Thursday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.3% to 1,189.82 as hotter PPI revisions and oil above $108/<span data-ccp-char>bbl</span><span data-ccp-char> reinforced expectations of a Fed hike next week.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>JPY </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" >was the session's biggest G10 loser, falling to 154.42, snapping a three-day winning streak as rising US yields and oil weighed. Technically, resistance near 155 is seen capping further upside.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" ><span data-ccp-char> down 0.83% to 0.7157 and <strong><span data-contrast="none">NZDUSD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"> down 0.70% to 0.5798, as surging oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and pushed Australian and New Zealand bond yields to multi-year highs.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="none" ></span><span data-ccp-char><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" ><span data-ccp-char> slipped 0.18% to 1.1612 and <strong><span data-contrast="none">GBPUSD</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"> 0.26% to 1.3512, despite a 25bp ECB hike and a matching move by Denmark.</span></span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1808914155" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{188}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto"> surged to above $107 per barrel, the highest since May, before edging slightly higher to near $110 in late US trading. <strong><span data-contrast="auto">WTI </span></strong><span data-contrast="auto">rose approximately 6.7% to around $103 per barrel. The rally is driven by escalating US-Iran hostilities disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping, with Saudi Arabia reporting a sharp drop in production last month. Brent is up a further 0.4% in early Asian trading on Friday.</span></span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span><span><strong><span>Copper </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >hit a fresh all-time high of $14,875 per tonne on the LME on Thursday before slumping more than 3% after a report indicated the White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs, citing concerns that higher prices could raise manufacturing costs. Copper stocks were hit hard — Freeport McMoRan -8.0%, Southern Copper -7.0%, Teck Resources -7.9%.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto" ></span><span><strong><span>US natural gas </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto" >futures settled higher, reversing earlier losses, as climbing crude oil and European gas prices triggered basket buying across energy products. European natural gas prices hit a three-year high amid the Middle East supply disruption.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="198244797" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{190}"><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none"><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}"></span></p> <ul> <li><span data-contrast="auto"><strong><span>Yields </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="auto">rose sharply across the curve, with the 2-year note up 15 basis points to 4.582% (highest since 2024), the 10-year up 11 basis points to 4.954% (approaching the psychologically significant 5% level), and the 30-year up 7.6 basis points to 5.369% (highest since 2007). The 3-year yield also rose 15 basis points to 4.678%. The selloff was the largest for the 2-year since the April 2025 market dislocation.</span></li> <li><span data-contrast="auto"></span>A $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.308% — the highest yield at auction since 2001 — stopping through the when-issued yield by 2.7 basis points, a sign of strong demand. The share awarded to primary dealers was a record low, <span >indicating</span><span > robust end-investor appetite at these yield levels.</span></li> </ul> <p paraid="1556046813" paraeid="{8743a5bd-d4ee-41dc-8e09-8d24efa6990e}{82}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" >For a global look at markets – go to </span><span ><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span><span data-contrast="none" >.<strong><span data-contrast="none"> </span></strong></span><span data-contrast="none" > </span><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':true,'134233118':true,'201341983':0,'335559740':240}" ></span></p> <p paraid="771920242" paraeid="{28bd4fd0-50e1-4409-b35a-898603f1d33d}{198}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span data-contrast="none" ><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em></span><span ></span><span ><em><span data-contrast="none">The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></span><span ></span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Apple folds the iPhone, Meta gives artificial intelligence a job</h1> <p>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Meta’s rally reflects excitement about AI that acts</strong>, not proof that Muse will become a profitable product.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Apple still follows a different model: </strong>better hardware, premium pricing and deeper ecosystem spending.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Investors increasingly want AI spending to produce measurable behaviour</strong>, revenue or customer lock-in.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Apple unveiled a phone that folds. Meta unveiled an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant that can send emails, book travel and make purchases.</span></p> <p><span>Investors reacted very differently.</span></p> <p><span>On 9 September 2026, Meta closed at 653.69 USD, up 6.55%. Apple finished at 315.34 USD, down 0.28%. That is not a verdict that Meta is winning and Apple is losing. It is a sign that the technology cycle is changing.</span></p> <p><span>Investors have spent years funding enormous AI investments. Increasingly, they want evidence that new technology changes what customers do, what they pay for, or how difficult they are to lose.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Three roads to the customer’s wallet</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Apple’s model remains straightforward. Build desirable devices, control the software around them and charge premium prices.</span></p> <p><span>Its new iPhone Duo pushes that formula further. The first foldable iPhone starts at 1,999 USD. Apple is testing whether a new form factor can encourage upgrades, protect pricing power and pull customers deeper into its ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>That ecosystem matters. Apple generated 54.25 billion USD from the iPhone and 30.74 billion USD from Services last quarter. Hardware remains the front door. Services increase the value of keeping customers inside.</span></p> <p><span>Meta approaches AI differently.</span></p> <p><span>Muse is designed not just to answer questions but to perform tasks across applications. If users repeatedly rely on it, Meta could monetise that activity through subscriptions, commerce and stronger engagement across its existing platforms.</span></p> <p><span>That last point matters because advertising still generates almost all Meta’s revenue. Even small improvements in engagement can become valuable when applied across billions of users.</span></p> <p><span>Amazon and Alphabet offer a third model: connect AI directly to commercial intent.</span></p> <p><span>Amazon can use AI to help customers compare products and complete purchases. Google can insert AI into search, shopping and advertising. The distance between an AI query and actual revenue can therefore be much shorter.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From AI capex to AI cash flow </span></strong></h3> <p><span>This matters because AI spending is becoming enormous.</span></p> <p><span>Meta expects capital expenditure of 130 billion USD to 145 billion USD in 2026. In the second quarter alone, capital expenditure reached 31.08 billion USD, while free cash flow fell to just 784 million USD.</span></p> <p><span>Muse therefore matters beyond the product itself. It offers one possible answer to the question investors increasingly ask: what does all this infrastructure spending eventually produce?</span></p> <p><span>The 6.55% share-price jump does not prove the economics work. It shows how valuable a credible monetisation path can become when spending expectations are already high.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Apple still needs to prove consumers want an expensive foldable iPhone in meaningful numbers.</span></p> <p><span>Meta faces a different challenge. The more useful an AI agent becomes, the more responsibility users give it. Reliability, privacy and payment security therefore become more important.</span></p> <p><span>There is also a simpler risk across Big Tech: people may use AI heavily without paying much for it. </span>Usage is not the same as attractive economics.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Follow behaviour, not demonstrations.</span></strong><span> Watch repeat usage, transactions and conversion rather than headline AI capabilities.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Compare revenue with spending.</span></strong><span> AI growth matters less if infrastructure costs rise just as quickly.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch Apple’s upgrade cycle.</span></strong><span> Strong foldable demand could show hardware innovation still supports pricing power.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Track the route to money.</span></strong><span> Advertising, subscriptions and transactions provide clearer signals than vague promises of future AI value.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From spectacle to habit</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Yesterday looked like a contest between a folding screen and an AI agent. It is better understood as a contest between monetisation models.</span></p> <p><span>Apple makes money when better hardware encourages customers to upgrade and remain inside its ecosystem. Meta needs AI to deepen engagement and eventually create new revenue streams. Amazon and Google sit closer to the transaction itself.</span></p> <p><span>None guarantees attractive returns.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the question is becoming less about which demonstration looks cleverest and more about which technology changes behaviour repeatedly, produces cash and does so without costs rising just as fast. <br /> <br /> </span><span >The next technology cycle may still reward spectacle. But usefulness is becoming the receipt investors increasingly want to see.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Meta Platforms Inc.</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oil bites, one name lifts - Options Brief - 10 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Brent above USD 100 and a 2023-high Treasury yield pushed the S&P 500 into a third straight loss, yet one large technology name gained 6.55% inside it. The range priced for the whole week is already spent.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | VIX 16.46 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.25) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.60</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The index has already spent the range priced for its whole week.</strong> The S&P 500 sits <strong>104%</strong> through the band the option market drew around Friday's close, with two sessions and two events still to come, while the Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>23%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Friday keeps getting more expensive.</strong> The <strong>11 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>68 points</strong>, or <strong>0.89%</strong>, against <strong>74 points</strong> quoted yesterday, where the clock alone would have left about <strong>60</strong>.</li> <li><strong>One name is doing the index's work.</strong> The S&P 500 fell <strong>0.48%</strong> while its equal-weighted version lost <strong>0.97%</strong>, and three-month implied correlation sits at <strong>10.67</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week's range sits</strong></h2> <p>What the option market priced for this week, and how much of it each market has spent.</p> <p><strong></strong><em>Expected move to the Friday 11 September expiry, drawn around the Friday 4 September close, with the nearest listed strike at each bound. Volatility uses the 16 September expiry, the next listed weekly. Derived from at-the-money option pricing, not a forecast; this week's bands come from the live chain rather than a Friday-close snapshot, which was not yet available.</em></p> <ul> <li><em><strong>The index has run out of week early.</strong></em> The S&P 500 has covered <strong>104%</strong> of the range priced around Friday's close and has closed below its lower bound, while the Nasdaq 100 fund has used <strong>23%</strong> and gold <strong>33%</strong>. In our view one large technology name may be holding the headline index up while the broader market gives way.</li> <li><em><strong>Volatility has travelled furthest of all.</strong></em> VIX sits <strong>132%</strong> through a band running to the <strong>16 September</strong> expiry, which spans the Federal Reserve decision and is therefore wider than the rows above it. Energy has used <strong>83%</strong> and the bitcoin fund <strong>59%</strong>. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Brent crossed <strong>USD 100</strong> a barrel for the first time since July and settled more than <strong>3%</strong> higher, after US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Tehran's warning of further retaliation. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose about six basis points to <strong>4.845%</strong>, its highest since 2023, and the 2-year reached a new cycle high near <strong>4.43%</strong>.</p> <p>That combination stretched the S&P 500 decline to a third session, with energy the only sector to rise. Meta gained <strong>6.55%</strong> on the launch of its Muse personal assistant while Alphabet lost <strong>2.28%</strong> on the competitive read of the same news. More in Saxo's <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank">macro coverage</a> and today's <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---crude-oil-remains-focus-ecb-set-to-hike-rates---10-september-2026-10092026" target="_blank">Market Quick Take</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Wednesday 9 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,636.36</strong>, down 0.48%. Dow <strong>52,386.25</strong>, down 0.77%. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,421.55</strong>, down 0.29%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 lost <strong>0.97%</strong> and the Russell 2000 fund <strong>1.37%</strong>, so the damage again sat below the index line.</li> <li><strong>Europe (Wednesday 9 September close):</strong> Stoxx 600 <strong>640.42</strong>, down 1.41%. DAX <strong>25,576.45</strong>, down 1.66%. The CAC 40 lost <strong>1.94%</strong>, the SMI <strong>1.80%</strong> and the AEX <strong>1.27%</strong>, with higher energy costs feeding rate expectations into today's European Central Bank decision. Inditex fell <strong>3.6%</strong> on a first-half profit miss.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Thursday 10 September session):</strong> the Hang Seng is <strong>24,949.52</strong>, down 1.29%, and its technology sub-index <strong>2.07%</strong> lower. The Kospi sits at <strong>6,997.57</strong>, down 0.77%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix giving up early gains. The CSI 300 is <strong>4,553.52</strong>, down 0.42%, and the Nikkei about <strong>0.5%</strong> lower.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent <strong>USD 101.01</strong>, trading near <strong>USD 100.50</strong> this morning, and WTI <strong>USD 96.07</strong> in an eighth consecutive advance. Spot gold near <strong>USD 4,413</strong>, up 0.3%, against gold futures at <strong>USD 4,452.40</strong>. Copper set another record above <strong>USD 14,850</strong> a tonne and platinum rose more than <strong>5%</strong>. The US 2-year yield is <strong>4.428%</strong>, the 10-year <strong>4.845%</strong> and the 30-year <strong>5.294%</strong>. EURUSD <strong>1.1638</strong>, USDJPY <strong>153.40</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Transitioning, VIX 16.46, with the S&P 500 within <strong>0.45%</strong> of its 50-day moving average and 20-day realised volatility at <strong>8.4%</strong> and falling.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 9 September, yesterday's positioning and not today's price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> confirmed-opening premium reached <strong>USD 1.97bn</strong> and split almost exactly in half, <strong>49.2%</strong> puts against <strong>50.8%</strong> calls. The headline size was a ladder of deep in-the-money calls in one large semiconductor name, printed as a single same-second package at mid, which reads as a position being moved rather than a fresh view. Where the side was readable, the clean bought lines were long-dated downside in two other large-cap names. In our view the tape carried size without direction.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> the largest index lines were far-dated downside sold on the bid, which may leave the street holding protection it did not seek. Sector fund activity was thin and mostly printed at mid, so no direction is claimable there. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface - 10 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>16.46</strong>, up <strong>4.71%</strong>.</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>11.45</strong>, up <strong>9.78%</strong>.</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>15.59</strong>, up <strong>5.27%</strong>.</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.87</strong> · VIX6M <strong>20.63</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>21.97</strong>.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>The front-month continuous series reads <strong>18.60</strong>, a level that belongs to the October contract after the roll, so no session comparison is drawn from it. Put-call parity on the September expiry gives a forward of <strong>17.06</strong>, a premium to spot of <strong>0.60</strong> points against <strong>0.92</strong> a session earlier.</li> <li>Second-month <strong>19.22</strong>, with the front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.970</strong>, so the curve stays in contango.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>149.25</strong>, up 0.39 on the session.</li> <li>COR3M <strong>10.67</strong>, up <strong>8.22%</strong>.</li> <li>DSPX <strong>32.92</strong>, down <strong>4.61%</strong>.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>94.50</strong> · MOVE <strong>76.74</strong>, up 0.79%.</li> <li>VXN <strong>22.32</strong>, up <strong>2.81%</strong>.</li> <li>GVZ <strong>27.79</strong>, up <strong>1.94%</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 September 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Session implied move.</strong></em> Today's expiry prices <strong>40 points</strong>, or <strong>0.53%</strong>, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than from a forecast. Two scheduled events land inside that window, a European Central Bank decision and US producer prices, against the <strong>36 points</strong> the previous session's same-day expiry carried on an empty calendar.</li> <li><em><strong>Event implied range.</strong></em> The <strong>11 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>68 points</strong>, or <strong>0.89%</strong>, against <strong>74 points</strong> quoted yesterday for the same expiry. One session has come off the clock since, so flat-volatility decay alone would have left roughly <strong>60 points</strong>. The market has therefore added about <strong>eight points</strong> of premium to the inflation print, the second consecutive session it has done so.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong></em> SKEW barely moved, at <strong>149.25</strong>, while three-month implied correlation rose <strong>8.22%</strong> to <strong>10.67</strong> and dispersion eased to <strong>32.92</strong>. In our view the option market may be taking a little of its dispersion bet back on the day that bet paid best, with a <strong>6.55%</strong> gain in one large technology name sitting inside a <strong>0.48%</strong> index decline.</li> <li><em><strong>Correlation read.</strong></em> Oil volatility at <strong>49.85</strong> is <strong>3.0 times</strong> the equity gauge, gold volatility sits at <strong>27.79</strong> and bond volatility at <strong>76.74</strong> with the 10-year yield at a 2023 high. In our assessment equity options may still be pricing a contained index while the macro complex around it prices something considerably less settled. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <p>Norway August consumer prices at <strong>08:00 CET</strong>, the European Central Bank rate decision at <strong>14:15 CET</strong> with the Lagarde press conference at <strong>14:45 CET</strong>, US August producer prices and weekly jobless claims at <strong>14:30 CET</strong>, US existing home sales at <strong>16:00 CET</strong>, EIA natural gas storage at <strong>16:30 CET</strong>, EIA crude and fuel stocks at <strong>18:00 CET</strong>, and a US Treasury 30-year bond auction at <strong>19:00 CET</strong>. Oracle and Adobe report today. Tomorrow brings US August consumer prices, and beyond that the Federal Reserve meets on 15 and 16 September and the Bank of Japan on 17 and 18 September.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our view the option market spent this week faster than the tape suggests. A band drawn around Friday's close has been fully used by the index with two sessions left, and the volatility gauge has gone a third further than its own band allowed, yet the Friday expiry ended more expensive again rather than cheaper.</p> <p>Underneath that, the index keeps doing less work than it appears. A <strong>0.48%</strong> decline containing a <strong>6.55%</strong> gain in one large technology name and a <strong>2.28%</strong> fall in another is not a calm market, it is a market whose parts are cancelling, and the equal-weighted index losing twice as much says the same thing from the cash side.</p> <p>In our assessment the correlation reading is the one to watch through Friday. Low correlation may hold while the shocks stay company-specific, and neither an oil price above <strong>USD 100</strong> nor an inflation print is company-specific. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/front-day-drains-friday-fills---options-brief---9-september-2026-09092026" data-id="2710AA396670481E86ECD99921F4DED0" data-type="Article">Front day drains Friday fills - Options Brief - 9 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-run-front-end-firms---options-brief---7-september-2026-07092026" data-id="92D2390AB98944AE8AC2BFFCF4267F56" data-type="Article">Chips run front end firms - Options Brief - 7 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/crude-calms-cpi-day-gets-the-bid---options-brief---12-august-2026-12082026" data-id="1CF4623453544E0BB7A8C2022FDA9777" data-type="Article">Crude calms CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-surges-equity-vol-stays-home---options-brief---11-august-2026-11082026" data-id="87691E0874FC4C9683ADA934D90BA2E3" data-type="Article">Oil surges equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---crude-oil-remains-focus-ecb-set-to-hike-rates---10-september-2026-10092026" data-id="0BDD2A58B280493093BB5CAD0FE0861B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Crude oil remains focus ECB set to hike rates - 10 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-nears-usd-100-after-gulf-strikes-and-health-care-drags-shares-lower---09-september-2026-09092026" data-id="EB38F32F49AF4B498F28FCD5A2350D68" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil nears USD 100 after Gulf strikes and health care drags shares lower - 09 September 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Trump desperation grows ahead of midterms. US yields pop ahead of CPI.</h1> <p>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:38:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Too much focus on the actual CPI print. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/trump-desperation-plumbs-new-depths-us-yields-pop-ahead-of-cpi/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <p> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li><span><a href="https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-round-up-the-enshittification" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Trump wants cheap hamburger meat ahead of the mid-terms</a></span>. Matt Stoller covers the story and shows what this may cost him politically with some of his base - and what it may cost those consuming the questionable meat. Yikes. </li> <li>The FT version of the widely covered resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that the company is not doing enough to enforce safety guardrails and that <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/20c07191-8da6-440f-b04b-8ea0ebdd9153?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AI could end humanity as the company and OpenAI are "'gambling' with the future of mankind"</a></span>.</li> <li>Michael Every reposted a news item on X that <span><a href="https://x.com/gertbollen/status/2097786846105206985" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Germany's Deutsche Bank will be appointed as the clearer and settler of RMB (Chinese yuan) transactions in Europe</a></span>. Wasn't the EU supposed to be gearing up for a less friendly face to China on concerns it is undermining EU industry with its cheap and subsidized exports?</li> <li>(HT FTAlphaville) A <span><a href="https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/what-driving-global-rise-long-term-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bruegel long-form piece poking into the factors that are driving the rise in long-term interest rates</a></span> - it's not just about fiscal profligacy.</li> <li>ProPublica earlier this year looked into <span><a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-midterm-elections-takeover" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how Trump might look to call the mid-term election results into question if they are not favourable for Republicans</a></span> - a high risk on this front, but how high when the president himself is so unpopular?</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Crude oil remains focus, ECB set to hike rates - 10 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:11:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: US-Iran escalation drove supply-risk fears while weak ADP payrolls and a disappointing Treasury buyback lifted yields.</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities fell as $100 oil revived inflation fears, while Asia extended the risk-off move.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Equity fear gauges rose across the curve as oil and yields pressured shares before the ECB.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto spot held flat while miners and platform names gave back part of Tuesday's rally</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Brent crossed triple digits as Gulf supply fears deepened, metals bid led by platinum.</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US Treasury yields hit new cycle highs for most of the yield curve.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: A choppy rangebound market awaits Friday’s US August CPI data.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US President Donald Trump teased the idea of USD 5,000 “Trump dividend” checks</strong> if US voters deliver a win for the Republican party in the mid-term elections in November. Such proposals are unlikely to pass even a Republican controlled Congress, however, which has the power of the purse.</li> <li>Rising US–Iran tensions are heightening fears of Middle East energy supply disruptions.<strong> Iran has threatened escalation if US strikes continue, while President Trump expects the conflict—and high gasoline prices—to persist beyond the November midterms.</strong> The confrontation widened after Iran‑backed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities forced temporary shutdowns.</li> <li><strong>ADP weekly payrolls soft:</strong> US private payrolls rose an average of 12,000 per week in the four weeks ending 22 August, according to ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The prior monthly estimate for August had already come in at a weak +38,000.</li> <li><strong>Mortgage rates at a 13-month high:</strong> The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6bps to 6.85% in the week ended 4 September, the highest in over a year. MBA mortgage applications fell 2.7% week-on-week, with refinancings down 6.2%.</li> <li><strong>Treasury buyback disappoints:</strong> The US Treasury announced it will purchase up to $6 billion of longer-dated debt (10–20 year) — triple the initially communicated $2 billion — but markets had expected a larger operation. Yields rose on the announcement, with the 10-year hitting its highest level since 2023.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – Norway Aug. CPI</li> <li>1215 – ECB Rate Announcement</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1230 – US Aug. PPI</li> <li>1245 – ECB President Christine Lagarde Press Conference</li> <li>1400 – US Aug. Existing Home Sales</li> <li>1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage</li> <li>1600 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks (delayed by a day)</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Today:</strong> Oracle, Adobe</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3% and the Dow dropped 0.8% on Wednesday, extending a three-day slide as Brent crude moved above $100 and Treasury yields climbed. Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to rise, while Meta jumped 6.6% after launching Muse, its new personal AI assistant, Alphabet fell 2.3% as the launch raised fresh competitive concerns, while Apple slipped 0.3% despite unveiling its first foldable iPhone Duo. Attention now shifts to US producer prices today and consumer inflation on Friday, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 fell 1.4%, the DAX dropped 1.7%, the FTSE 100 lost 1.3% and the CAC 40 declined 1.9%, as higher oil prices lifted inflation and rate concerns ahead of today’s European Central Bank meeting. Inditex fell 3.6% after first-half operating profit and net income missed expectations, while ASML lost 1.3% in the broader technology selloff. Energy bucked the weakness as BP gained 1.3% with Brent above $100. Markets now focus on the central bank decision, with investors pricing further tightening through 2027.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: The Nikkei 225 traded around 0.5% lower, the Kospi was flat and the Hang Seng fell 1.3% on Thursday, extending the global selloff as oil stayed above $100 and US yields remained elevated. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix gave up early gains and were slightly down, despite overnight strength in US memory stocks, as foreign and institutional selling weighed on Seoul. Apple suppliers traded mixed after the iPhone Duo launch. Investors are watching US inflation data next, with the oil shock keeping rate expectations firmly in focus.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 16.46 | VIX FUTURES: 18.60 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.25) | MOVE: 76.74 | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Brent above USD 100 and a ten-year yield at a 2023 high stretched the S&P 500 decline to a third session. <strong>Cash VIX rose 4.71% to 16.46</strong>, VIX1D 9.78% to 11.45 and VIX9D 5.27% to 15.59, while <strong>VVIX climbed 6.55% to 94.50</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The cash curve holds contango</strong> to 21.97 at one year, SKEW 149.25, MOVE 76.74; small-cap and Dow volatility rose 6.01% and 7.56%. SPX options imply roughly <strong>40 points (0.53%) today and 68 points (0.89%) by Friday</strong>, with the ECB today and US CPI Friday. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~78,272 (-0.04%) | ETHEREUM ~2,473 (+0.19%) | IBIT 44.29 (-0.23%) | ETHA 18.58 (-0.75%) | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto spot was flat overnight while the US-listed complex fell with equities. <strong>Cipher lost 8.70%</strong>, giving back part of Tuesday's gain, with Iren and Circle down 3.32%, <strong>Strategy 2.80% and Coinbase 2.36%</strong>; Marathon was the only miner higher. The spot ETFs held up better, both slipping less than 1%.</li> <li><strong>The Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for 15 September.</strong> It needs 60 votes to advance, and a failure would in effect end the bill's prospects for 2026, leaving the SEC and CFTC split of digital asset oversight unresolved.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil.</strong> Brent topped USD 101 a barrel for the first time since July, settling more than 3% higher on Wednesday, and trades near USD 100.50 this morning. WTI extended its advance to an eighth consecutive session and holds near USD 96. The move follows US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Iran's warning of further retaliation, while China is reportedly set to resume crude purchases this month. European natural gas also hit a three-year high on the same supply concerns, while US natural gas diverged, easing 1.1% to USD 2.792/MMBtu and widening the price gap between the two markets to 9.6 times.</li> <li><strong>Metals.</strong> LME copper hit another record above USD 14,850 a tonne and trades near USD 14,780 this morning, up 17% so far this year. The rally continues to be supported by anticipated US tariffs on refined copper imports, which have diverted metal towards the US and tightened availability elsewhere, alongside structural demand from AI data centres, electrification and the energy transition.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals.</strong> Spot gold trades near USD 4,413, up 0.3%, having recovered from a 2.6% three-day decline earlier in the week, with a weaker dollar helping offset the drag from rising real yields and rate hike worries. Platinum, meanwhile, jumped more than 5% after the WPIC highlighted critically depleted inventories, with above-ground stocks expected to cover just 3.4 months of global demand by the end of 2026.</li> </ul> <ul> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rose sharply on a new rush higher in crude oil prices and despite US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of expanded Treasury buybacks (see more above).</strong> The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose as much as four basis points to trade to a new cycle high near 4.43%, the highest in over two years. In a sign that the Treasury’s USD 6 billion buyback announcement failed to impress, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose clear of the recent top of the range, rising some six basis points to as high as 4.85%, the highest level since a brief period in late 2023, when the yield topped out just short of 5% for the first time since 2008.traded near 4.79% vs. the cycle high last week just above 4.81%.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s longer-dated government bond yields rose sharply, finally taking note of the rising yields globally and perhaps the latest sharp rise in oil prices. </strong>The benchmark 2-year JGB yield was steady near 1.84%, but the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose over four basis points to above 2.93% Thursday and the 30-year JGB yield rose just above 4.00% after trading as low as 3.94% the prior day.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Japanese yen chopped sideways late Wednesday and early Thursday</strong> as the <strong>USDJPY</strong> range tightened after it failed again Wednesday to stick below 153.00. The upside was capped at 153.74 and the pair traded near 153.50 late in Tokyo trading hours Thursday. EURJPY saw a similarly tight trading range, trading near 178.60, only slightly lower than the Wednesday closing level. </li> <li><strong>The US dollar traded mostly sideways as the market awaits the critical Friday US August CPI report </strong>and despite the run higher in US treasury yields to new cycle highs yesterday. <strong>EURUSD</strong> traded early Thursday almost unchanged near 1.1640 after a modest rise Wednesday ahead of today’s ECB meeting, which is universally expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike. <strong>AUDUSD</strong> had edge lower to near 0.7220 after posting a new cycle high Wednesday at 0.7238.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 10 September 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Iran threatens escalations; Trump expects conflict beyond mid-term elections</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Meta jumps 6.5% on Muse AI launch; Apple dips after unveiling foldable iPhone</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar softens; JPY leads G10 on Bessent remarks; SGD hits 10</span>‑<span>month MYR high</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent topped $101 (first since July); WTI up 8<sup>th</sup> consecutive day</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>US 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.85%, highest since 2023</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span><strong ><span></span></strong></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Rising US–Iran tensions are heightening fears of Middle East energy supply disruptions.<strong> Iran has threatened escalation if US strikes continue, while President Trump expects the conflict—and high gasoline prices—to persist beyond the November midterms.</strong> The confrontation widened after Iran</span>‑<span>backed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities forced temporary shutdowns.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ADP weekly payrolls soft:</span></strong><span> US private payrolls rose an average of 12,000 per week in the four weeks ending 22 August, according to ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The prior monthly estimate for August had already come in at a weak +38,000.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Mortgage rates at a 13-month high:</span></strong><span> The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6bps to 6.85% in the week ended 4 September, the highest in over a year. MBA mortgage applications fell 2.7% week-on-week, with refinancings down 6.2%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Treasury buyback disappoints:</span></strong><span> The US Treasury announced it will purchase up to $6 billion of longer-dated debt (10–20 year) — triple the initially communicated $2 billion — but markets had expected a larger operation. Yields rose on the announcement, with the 10-year hitting its highest level since 2023.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Wednesday to 7,636.36, its third consecutive session of losses and the lowest close since 1 September. Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost approximately 350 points. Industrials and consumer discretionary were the worst-performing sectors. Among the Mag Seven, Alphabet fell 2.1%, Amazon -1.8%, Nvidia -0.9% while <strong>Meta surged +6.5% after debuting its Muse AI assistant. Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone Duo in its Apple event yesterday, with the stock closing 1.2% lower. </strong>After hours, AeroVironment jumped ~7% after a strong Q1 beat, while Cooper Cos tumbled ~15% after slashing full-year guidance. American Eagle fell ~9% after comparable sales missed estimates. Index ETF futures are broadly flat in early Asia trade (SPY +0.1%, QQQ -0.03%).</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.4% to 640.41 — its biggest single-day decline since 8 July. The DAX fell 1.7% to 25,576.45, the FTSE 100 lost 1.3% to 10,670.06 (its fourth consecutive down day), and the CAC 40 declined. Industrials and consumer discretionary led losses across the region. Notable movers included Inditex (-3.6%) after first-half earnings missed expectations, Rheinmetall (-3.8%), ASML (-1.3%), and Autotrader Group (-4.7%). Energy names were the lone bright spot. Traders are now pricing approximately 90bps of ECB rate hikes by December 2027.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets are opening lower on Thursday, tracking Wall Street's third consecutive decline as surging oil prices and elevated Treasury yields stoke inflation fears ahead of Friday's US CPI. Equity futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia all pointed lower at the open. The Kospi opened 0.2% lower at 7,038.85, though it may outperform peers as overnight strength in US memory names — Samsung and SK Hynix were gaining in pre-market — provides some support. The Hang Seng closed Wednesday at 25,274.96, down 0.2%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index off 0.3%; mainland investors were net buyers of HK$3.72 billion via Stock Connect for a third consecutive session. A notable mover in Hong Kong on Wednesday was Excelland Robotics, which opened 142% higher in its trading debut, while Haidilao fell after a major shareholder stake sale. Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone (iPhone Duo) alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, which may lift Asian Apple supplier stocks at the open.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday: </strong>Adobe, Oracle</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD </span></strong></span><span>fell for a third straight session to its lowest since February 17, while the DXY dipped 0.02% to 98.795, reflecting broad but modest dollar softness. </span></li> <li><span>The yen was the clear G10 outperformer: <strong>USDJPY</strong> slid to 153.52 (</span>‑<span>0.03%), after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s aggressive verbal support for the yen and claim of “asymmetric information” on BOJ moves emboldened JPY bulls and helped drive hedge</span>‑<span>fund positioning for a break below 150 by year</span>‑<span>end, with some options targeting 140. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> led gains at 0.7222, with<strong> EURUSD </strong>and <strong>GBPUSD</strong> both edging up to 1.1634 and 1.3549, while <strong>USDCNY</strong> was essentially unchanged at 6.7084 as the PBOC marginally firmed its daily fixing to 6.7769.</span></li> <li><strong><span>SGD</span></strong><span> hit a 10-month high against the Malaysian ringgit at RM3.2207, as rising US Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment drove regional investors toward the SGD as a safe haven.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude topped $101/bbl</span></strong><span> for the first time since July, settling more than 3% higher on Wednesday. WTI extended its rally to an eighth consecutive session, trading near $97/bbl. The move is driven by escalating US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Iran warning of further retaliation. European natural gas prices also hit a three-year high on the back of the energy supply disruption fears. China is reportedly picking up crude purchases this month after a buying hiatus.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Copper hit a record high</span></strong><span> above $14,600/tonne on the LME earlier this week (currently $14,767.50), up 17% year-to-date. The rally is underpinned by anticipated US tariffs on refined metal imports, alongside structural demand from AI data centre buildout and the energy transition. Asian copper-related equities gained on the move.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold is trading at $4,390.63/oz</span></strong><span>, marginally lower on the day (-0.2%), having recovered from a 2.6% three-day decline earlier this week. A weaker dollar is providing support, partially offsetting headwinds from rising real yields and elevated rate-hike expectations. Major money managers including Amundi are reportedly rebuilding gold positions, with a $5,000/oz year-end target cited.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2023</span></strong><span>, closing Wednesday at approximately 4.83–4.85%, up ~5–6bps on the day. The move was driven by the combination of surging oil prices, a wave of corporate bond issuance (Tuesday's corporate supply topped nearly $40 billion), and disappointment over the Treasury's $6 billion buyback announcement. The 2-year yield rose to 4.42%, the highest since January 2025, as markets priced in a greater probability of a Fed rate hike. The 30-year yield stands at 5.29%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The $39 billion 10-year note auction drew solid demand</span></strong><span> despite pricing at 4.834% — the highest yield at a 10-year auction since August 2007. The auction stopped through the 4.849% when-issued yield at the deadline, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71x, above the recent average. </span></li> <li><strong><span>The US-China 10-year yield gap widened to a record 317bps</span></strong><span>, with US 10-year yields at ~4.85% versus Chinese 10-year yields holding steady at 1.68%. The record spread raises the risk of accelerated capital outflows from China and potential yuan pressure. Separately, JGB curve steepness continues to lead global duration repricing, with the JGB 2s10s spread at approximately 105bps — substantially steeper than most major peers — as fiscal and term-premium dynamics become increasingly important.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Front day drains, Friday fills - Options Brief - 9 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The market took almost all the premium out of Wednesday and stacked it onto Friday’s inflation print. Underneath a quiet index, single names moved double digits in both directions.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.72 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (148.86) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.45</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The front day emptied while the event window filled.</strong> VIX1D fell <strong>13.30%</strong> to <strong>10.43</strong> as VIX9D rose <strong>23.73%</strong> to <strong>14.81</strong>, a window that now covers both Friday’s inflation print and next week’s Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li><strong>Friday costs more than the clock alone would leave.</strong> The <strong>11 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>74 points</strong>, or <strong>0.96%</strong>, against <strong>79 points</strong> quoted yesterday for the same expiry, where time decay on its own would have left about <strong>68</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The index held together on offsetting parts rather than on calm.</strong> The S&P 500 fell <strong>0.58%</strong> while its equal-weighted version lost <strong>1.08%</strong>, with three-month implied correlation down at <strong>9.86</strong> and dispersion up at <strong>34.51</strong>.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 9 September 2026, approx. 06:27 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>US forces struck five Iranian crude tankers near the Kharg Island export hub, and Tehran answered with missiles fired toward Jordan and warnings to shipping near Kuwait and Bahrain. Houthi militants hit Saudi energy infrastructure the same day. Brent now trades near <strong>USD 100</strong> a barrel, with diesel near <strong>USD 200</strong>.</p> <p>The equity read was narrower than the headline. Health care carried the losses after Novartis lost <strong>10.9%</strong>, its worst session on record, when a late-stage trial failed and dragged Amgen down <strong>10.1%</strong> on doubts about the same drug class. Higher energy costs hardened rate-hike expectations into Friday. More in Saxo’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank">macro coverage</a> and today’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-nears-usd-100-after-gulf-strikes-and-health-care-drags-shares-lower---09-september-2026-09092026" target="_blank">Market Quick Take</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot, Tuesday 8 September 2026 close</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Tuesday 8 September close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,673.52</strong>, down 0.58%. Dow <strong>52,791.29</strong>, down 1.18%. Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,507.70</strong>, down 0.12%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 lost <strong>1.08%</strong>, so the damage sat well below the index line. Qualcomm rose <strong>3.2%</strong> on an AI-chip partnership with Amazon, while Corning gained <strong>7.6%</strong> and Lumentum <strong>11.0%</strong> on a large Verizon fibre order.</li> <li><strong >Europe (Tuesday 8 September close):</strong><span > Stoxx 600 <strong>649.61</strong>, down 0.05%. DAX <strong>26,007.63</strong>, unchanged. Euro Stoxx 50 <strong>6,413.18</strong>, up 0.14%, and the CAC 40 <strong>8,317.98</strong>, up 0.14%. The SMI lost <strong>1.55%</strong> on the Novartis fall. Antofagasta rose <strong>4.7%</strong> with record copper and Kion <strong>6.8%</strong> on a broker upgrade.</span></li> <li><strong >Asia (Wednesday 9 September session):</strong><span > the Kospi is <strong>7,046.91</strong>, up 1.33%, with SK Hynix up <strong>2.7%</strong> as the chip rally extended. Japan’s Nikkei is little changed. The Hang Seng sits at <strong>25,316.87</strong>, flat, and the CSI 300 at <strong>4,564.42</strong>, up 0.12%.</span></li> <li><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent <strong>USD 99.27</strong>, up 1.38%, and WTI <strong>USD 94.04</strong>, up 1.09%. Gold futures <strong>USD 4,421.60</strong>, with spot touching a one-week low near <strong>USD 4,341</strong> before recovering toward <strong>USD 4,390</strong>. Copper eased <strong>1.12%</strong> after its record run. The US 2-year yield is <strong>4.400%</strong>, less than two basis points below the cycle high, the 10-year <strong>4.796%</strong> and the 30-year <strong>5.250%</strong>. EURUSD <strong>1.1633</strong>, USDJPY <strong>153.33</strong>.</span></li> <li><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Low Vol Bull, VIX 15.72, S&P 500 <strong>0.99%</strong> above its 50-day moving average, with 20-day realised volatility at <strong>8.3%</strong> and falling.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 9 September 2026, approx. 06:27 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 8 September, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow:</strong> confirmed-opening premium reached <strong>USD 1.19bn</strong> and split almost exactly in half, <strong>50.2%</strong> puts against <strong>49.8%</strong> calls. That balance is structural rather than indecisive: the largest lines were long-dated semiconductor combinations opened on matching timestamps, which carry a put and a call at the same strike and express no direction. Where the side was readable, customers were sellers of premium expiring Friday, and the single clean defensive block was a stack of deep in-the-money puts in one large-cap technology name expiring the day after the Federal Reserve decision.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow:</strong> the energy complex tells the sharper story. Headline premium leaned <strong>58%</strong> to calls, yet every line with clean side evidence was a bought put across the crude and exploration funds, which reads as protection being paid for after the move rather than a fresh view. In our view the complex may be long a crude spike it does not entirely trust. Defensive sector funds carried size in health care but printed at mid, so no direction is claimable. Named funds are market context only. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 9 September 2026, approx. 06:27 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX spot <strong>15.72</strong> (up 2.75%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>10.43</strong> (down 13.30%) · VIX9D <strong>14.81</strong> (up 23.73%), the largest move anywhere on the surface</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.39</strong> (up 4.43%) · VIX6M <strong>20.34</strong> (up 2.26%) · VIX1Y <strong>21.78</strong> (up 1.35%), an upward-sloping cash curve throughout</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month VIX futures <strong>18.45</strong>. The contract has rolled, so neither the session change nor the premium to spot compares cleanly with the previous edition and no comparison is drawn here</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>19.20</strong> (up 4.34%), front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.960</strong>, so the curve stays in contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>148.86</strong> (down 1.79%), still well above the 100 to 120 neutral zone</li> <li>COR3M <strong>9.86</strong> (up 3.46%), close to the low of this cycle</li> <li>DSPX <strong>34.51</strong> (up 5.44%), the S&P 500 dispersion index</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>88.69</strong> (up 5.06%) · MOVE <strong>76.14</strong> (up 4.16%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>21.71</strong> (up 8.33%), at <strong>1.38</strong> times the equity gauge</li> <li>GVZ <strong>27.26</strong> (up 2.37%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 9 September 2026, approx. 06:27 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Session implied move.</strong></em> Today’s expiry prices <strong>36 points</strong>, or <strong>0.46%</strong>, the same figure the previous session’s same-day expiry carried. The figure is derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Nothing scheduled lands before the close, and the pricing says so.</li> <li><em><strong>Event implied range.</strong></em> The <strong>11 September</strong> expiry prices <strong>74 points</strong>, or <strong>0.96%</strong>, against <strong>79 points</strong> quoted yesterday for the same expiry. One trading session has been consumed since, so flat-volatility decay alone would have left roughly <strong>68 points</strong>. The market therefore added about <strong>six points</strong> of premium to the inflation print rather than letting the clock take it out, and it did so on a day when spot volatility barely moved. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail risk signal.</strong></em> SKEW eased to <strong>148.86</strong> while dispersion rose to <strong>34.51</strong> and three-month implied correlation fell to <strong>9.86</strong>, close to the low of this cycle. That combination prices a market where individual names may move a great deal and cancel each other out, which is what Tuesday delivered: a <strong>0.58%</strong> index loss covering a <strong>10.1%</strong> fall in one large pharmaceutical name and an <strong>11.0%</strong> gain in an optical components maker.</li> <li><em><strong>Correlation read.</strong></em> Oil volatility at <strong>48.59</strong> is <strong>3.1 times</strong> the equity gauge, with gold volatility at <strong>27.26</strong> and bond volatility at <strong>76.14</strong>, the latter up 4.16% as yields sit near cycle highs. In our view equity options may be pricing a contained index while the macro complex around it prices something considerably less settled, and Friday is the first scheduled test of which reading is right. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Where the week’s range sits</strong></h2> <p><em>Expected move is derived from at-the-money option pricing for the stated expiry, not a forecast.<br /> </em></p> <ul> <li><em><strong>The index has spent more of its weekly budget than the tape suggests.</strong></em> The S&P 500 has covered <strong>57%</strong> of the range priced around Friday’s close and gold <strong>67%</strong>, against <strong>5%</strong> for the Nasdaq 100 fund. In our view that gap may say more about where the damage landed than about the index level.</li> <li><em><strong>Volatility has travelled furthest against its own range.</strong></em> VIX sits <strong>51%</strong> through a band running to the <strong>16 September</strong> expiry, the next listed weekly, which spans the Federal Reserve decision and is therefore wider than the rows above it. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded fund trades; see <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> </ul> <em></em><br /> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>US MBA mortgage applications land at <strong>13:00 CET</strong>, the EIA short-term energy outlook at <strong>18:00 CET</strong> and a US Treasury sale of <strong>USD 39 billion</strong> of 10-year notes at <strong>19:00 CET</strong>, with the UK RICS house price balance at <strong>01:01 CET</strong> tomorrow.<br /> Inditex reports today. Later this week US producer prices land on Thursday alongside the European Central Bank decision and results from Oracle and Adobe, then US August consumer prices arrive on Friday <strong>11 September</strong>.<br /> Beyond that, the FOMC meets on 15 and 16 September, where a 25 basis point increase is roughly <strong>62%</strong> priced, and the Bank of Japan on 17 and 18 September.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our view the clearest thing the option market did on Tuesday was move its money forward. The gauge covering today fell by more than a tenth while the gauge covering the next two weeks rose by nearly a quarter, and the Friday expiry ended the session more expensive than it had been despite a session having been taken off the clock.</p> <p>Underneath that, the index itself is doing less work than it appears. A <strong>0.58%</strong> decline that contains a double-digit fall in health care and a double-digit gain in optical components is not a calm market, it is a market whose parts are cancelling. Correlation near the cycle low and dispersion at <strong>34.51</strong> say the same thing from the derivative side.</p> <p>In our assessment those two readings could resolve together. Low correlation holds while the shocks stay idiosyncratic, and an inflation print that moves the whole rate curve is not idiosyncratic. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-run-front-end-firms---options-brief---7-september-2026-07092026" data-id="92D2390AB98944AE8AC2BFFCF4267F56" data-type="Article">Chips run front end firms - Options Brief - 7 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/crude-calms-cpi-day-gets-the-bid---options-brief---12-august-2026-12082026" data-id="1CF4623453544E0BB7A8C2022FDA9777" data-type="Article">Crude calms CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-surges-equity-vol-stays-home---options-brief---11-august-2026-11082026" data-id="87691E0874FC4C9683ADA934D90BA2E3" data-type="Article">Oil surges equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/gold-runs-hot-equity-vol-cools---options-brief---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="7F29B7BD8CBA44319ECF9B2DDC3AA02A" data-type="Article">Gold runs hot equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-nears-usd-100-after-gulf-strikes-and-health-care-drags-shares-lower---09-september-2026-09092026" data-id="EB38F32F49AF4B498F28FCD5A2350D68" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil nears USD 100 after Gulf strikes and health care drags shares lower - 09 September 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---copper-hits-a-record-and-the-yen-jumps-as-oil-holds-near-usd-98---08-september-2026-08092026" data-id="65497F621E2C4FC69FE8E8A092B92C48" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Copper hits a record and the yen jumps as oil holds near USD 98 - 08 September 2026</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The nuclear IPO boom: AI needs electricity, Wall Street smells an opportunity</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:15:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <span> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Holtec joins a growing group of nuclear companies testing public-market appetite,</strong> alongside X-energy and Standard Nuclear, while Westinghouse is also exploring a listing.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Artificial intelligence strengthens demand for reliable power</strong>, but nuclear economics still depend heavily on construction cost and execution.</span></p> </span></li> <li><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Nuclear stocks offer very different exposures, </strong>from operating plants and fuel to equipment suppliers and future reactor developers.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span >The next artificial intelligence company coming to the stock market does not make chips or software. It makes nuclear equipment.</span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ipox.com/upcoming-ipos" target="_blank">H</a><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ipox.com/upcoming-ipos" target="_blank">oltec Nuclear is scheduled to list on Nasdaq on 18 September 2026</a>, after setting an IPO price range of USD 15 to USD 18 per share that values the company at up to USD 10.2 billion.</span></p> <p><span>Behind the rush sits a simple problem. AI needs computers. Computers need data centres. And data centres need enormous amounts of electricity, preferably every hour of every day.</span></p> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary" target="_blank">The International Energy Agency</a> expects global data-centre electricity consumption to roughly double between 2025 and 2030. Suddenly, nuclear’s ability to provide continuous power looks considerably more fashionable.<br /> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank analysis based on International Energy Agency, US Securities and Exchange Commission, company filings. </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Nuclear is one theme, but several businesses</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Holtec makes the comparison interesting because it is not simply a promise about a future reactor.</span></p> <p><span>The company already makes nuclear components, handles spent fuel and provides decommissioning services. It is also trying to restart the 800-megawatt Palisades plant in Michigan and develop its own small modular reactor (SMR), a smaller reactor designed for more standardised construction.</span></p> <p><span>That puts Holtec somewhere between several existing nuclear investments.</span></p> <p><span>Constellation Energy mainly offers exposure to electricity from operating plants. Cameco sells uranium and owns 49% of Westinghouse, which supplies fuel, equipment and services. GE Vernova participates through nuclear equipment and its BWRX-300 small modular reactor technology. Oklo sits much further towards the development end, where most of the value depends on reactors that still need to be built.</span></p> <p><span>Same nuclear theme. Very different business risks.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, that distinction matters more than the word “nuclear” in the company description. Existing reactors generate electricity today. New-reactor developers first need permits, financing, construction and customers.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The USD 15,000 question</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Demand may no longer be nuclear’s biggest problem. Cost is.</span></p> <p><span>The recent US experience is uncomfortable. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://canes.mit.edu/media/2024-total-cost-projection-of-next-ap1000" target="_blank">Research used by the US Department of Energy</a> estimates the construction cost of Vogtle Units 3 and 4 at around USD 15,000 per kilowatt (kW) in 2024 dollars.</span></p> <p><span>Compare that with the Barakah nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates. Built using South Korean reactor technology and a repeatable four-unit programme,<a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.enec.ae/news/latest-news/enec-and-kepco-announce-financial-close-for-barakah-nuclear-energy-plant/" target="_blank"> its USD 24.4 billion financing</a> requirement across 5.6 gigawatts works out at roughly USD 4,400 per kW of capacity.</span></p> <p><span>The measures are not perfectly comparable, but the gap tells the important story. Nuclear becomes much cheaper when countries repeat designs, retain skilled workers and maintain functioning supply chains.</span></p> <p><span>Holtec itself targets around USD 7,500 to USD 8,500 per kW for future dual-unit SMR projects in high-cost markets such as the US. That target matters. Delivering it matters considerably more.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Where the story can go wrong</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The clearest risk is that nuclear enthusiasm runs ahead of nuclear economics. Rising cost-per-kW estimates, delayed regulatory milestones or repeated requests for additional government funding would be early warning signs.</span></p> <p><span>AI demand can also be real without becoming nuclear demand. Natural gas, renewables, batteries and grid upgrades can arrive faster than new reactors.</span></p> <p><span>Holtec adds a governance wrinkle. Founder-linked entities are expected to retain roughly 99% of the voting power over director elections after the IPO, leaving public shareholders with limited influence.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Separate today from tomorrow.</span></strong><span> Distinguish existing cash-generating nuclear assets from businesses dependent on future reactor deployment.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Follow cost per kilowatt.</span></strong><span> Falling construction costs and repeat projects matter more than ambitious capacity announcements.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch contracts and permits.</span></strong><span> Binding power agreements, regulatory approvals and completed construction milestones provide stronger evidence than non-binding plans.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Electricity first, valuations second</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AI may have reopened nuclear’s door to Wall Street, but electricity demand alone does not make reactors economic. The winners will be companies that turn demand into signed contracts, permits, repeatable construction and eventually cash flow.</span></p> <p><span>That is why the most useful nuclear metric may not be megawatts promised, but dollars per kilowatt actually delivered. If the industry moves from Vogtle-style one-off complexity towards Barakah-style repetition, this IPO wave could mark a genuine industrial restart. If costs remain high and timelines keep slipping, investors may discover that AI servers can still be built much faster than reactors.</span></p> <p><span>The electricity shortage is real. Execution will decide who gets paid for solving it.</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Is copper too cheap relative to gold?</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Elsewhere, oil continues to pressure risk sentiment.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <p class="text--body"> <br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/is-copper-too-cheap-relative-to-gold/" target="_blank">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Does heavy AI us mean that students don't learn as much? <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/generative-ai-learning-penalty-secondary-school" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>Probably, but there are nuances</span></a>. <em>"In China and many other countries, well-designed tutoring tools already exist, often at nearly zero cost. Most students just do not use them. Rather, they prefer general-purpose AI tools that make it easy to outsource homework."</em></li> <li>Erik Townsend <span><a href="https://x.com/ErikSTownsend/status/2097154777826333130" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">points out</a></span> the very high cost of the most recently completed US nuclear power plants and wonders if the new ones can be built (by a South Korean outfit) in the US at prices that are proven possible elsewhere and some 75% lower. Stumbled across <span><a href="https://x.com/ErikSTownsend/status/2097486448153030787" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">another interesting post</a></span> on NexGen Energy and long-term uranium supply as well.</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold rangebound as weaker dollar offsets rate-hike and inflation risks</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p class="text--body"><span>Gold traders - and the algorithmic programmes that account for a significant share of day-to-day activity - are currently struggling to determine which of several competing themes will ultimately set the tone, overall keeping prices rangebound around USD 4,400. As the charts below illustrate, the clearest headwind has come from rising rate-hike expectations and higher bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. <br /> <br /> Against this backdrop, a softer dollar has provided support, while underlying investment demand through ETFs and futures has so far remained relatively resilient. Geopolitical uncertainty also remains elevated, with the latest flare-up in the Middle East helping to sustain gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier and limiting downside despite renewed pressure from yields. Over the past month, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 1.25%, led by strength in Asian currencies, most notably the KRW, JPY and AUD.<br /> <br /> With next week’s FOMC decision currently viewed as close to a coin toss between unchanged rates and a hike, the August CPI and PPI releases later this week could prove decisive. A hotter inflation print would likely reinforce rate-hike expectations and keep yields elevated, while softer data could quickly unwind some of the recent hawkish repricing as the window for a hike in my opinion then shuts until after the November Midterms. Either way, the inflation data may provide the catalyst that breaks gold out of its current tug-of-war and sets the direction ahead of the September meeting.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Drivers impacting gold - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"> <p>From a technical perspective, gold has settled into a roughly USD 200-wide range around USD 4,400 following its August rebound. To the upside, the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,537, provides key resistance, while the area around USD 4,350 has repeatedly provided support over the past month.</p> <p>Bears may focus on an emerging head-and-shoulders formation, with a break below USD 4,300 potentially signalling a deeper correction towards the established support area around USD 4,000. Conversely, a sustained break back above the 200-day moving average would improve the technical outlook and bring USD 4,770 into focus. This level represents both the May local high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 correction between January and June. <br /> <strong>Note, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. </strong></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot gold - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/look-beyond-brent-to-see-the-true-scale-of-the-energy-squeeze-07092026" data-id="6C1F4401197547ECB036D3E069EAAF25" data-type="Article">Look beyond Brent to see the true scale of the energy squeeze</a><br /> 7 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-1-sept-2026-07092026" data-id="2192D5ECE789423E8FD23A4FD151714C" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 1 Sept 2026</a><br /> 4 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/energy-scarcity-powers-commodities-index-towards-a-record-high-04092026" data-id="6DA889CE3191440FB9A2DAFDD2030DF5" data-type="Article">Commodity weekly: Energy scarcity powers commodities index towards a record high</a><br /> 4 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/europe-heads-into-winter-with-a-thinner-energy-buffer-04092026" data-id="CF7F267186204024A05B06DDE933A4D0" data-type="Article">Europe heads into winter with a thinner energy buffer</a><br /> 3 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/why-tight-commodity-markets-are-boosting-investor-returns-03092026" data-id="85F7ACFAB9DD41FBB567ED3E827F551E" data-type="Article">Why tight commodity markets are boosting investor returns</a><br /> 2 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/the-companies-powering-ai-are-outperforming-those-building-it-02092026" data-id="BA867EDA92B94584B41AC7C60773C7C4" data-type="Article">The companies powering AI are outperforming those building it</a><br /> 1 Sept 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodity-strength-collides-with-higher-interest-rates-01092026" data-id="C39FB3CF093A4FF88850A98DE64ABB3C" data-type="Article">Commodity strength collides with higher interest rates</a><br /> <br /> <strong><span><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span>Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>For market commentary and insights - not trading advice - follow me and join the conversation on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://substack.com/@oleshansen" target="_blank">Substack</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>USA</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil nears USD 100 after Gulf strikes and health care drags shares lower - 09 September 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:17:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Strikes on Iranian tankers pushed energy costs higher and hardened expectations of another rate rise</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks fell as oil and rate fears rose, Europe was flat, Asian chips outperformed despite stronger oil</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> Equity fear stayed low but the nine day gauge jumped as inflation and policy risk approached</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Miners rallied on data centre demand while treasury and platform names fell with equities</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude trades near USD 100 on fresh supply concerns, driving gold lower ahead of US inflation prints</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US treasury yields remain near cycle highs as high energy prices weigh</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: JPY strength renews late Tuesday and early Wednesday. USD broadly softer</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran continues. </strong>US struck Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, triggering Iranian missile launches toward Jordan and warnings to tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran-backed Houthis hit Saudi energy facilities, and with Hormuz disrupted Brent trades near USD 100 per barrel and diesel near USD 200 per barrel </li> <li><strong>Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +21 in September 2026</strong>, the highest since December 2021, driven by strong semiconductor and data center demand. Electronics jumped to +39, textiles and paper to +13, while steel and nonferrous stayed at -13. Non-manufacturers’ sentiment edged up to +29 on solid domestic consumption, with both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expecting +27 in three months.</li> <li><strong>US one-year inflation expectations stayed at 3.6% in August 2026</strong>, while gas, food, medical care, college costs and rent expectations all rose. Three- and five-year inflation expectations were 3.2% and 3.0%. Expected earnings growth ticked up to 2.9%, and the perceived chance unemployment will be higher in a year climbed to 44.4%, the highest since April 2020.</li> <li><strong>Germany’s trade surplus jumped to €21.3bn in July 2026 from €15.4bn in June</strong>, the biggest since August 2024, as imports fell far more than exports. Exports slipped 0.8% m/m, with EU sales down and US-bound exports up sharply, while imports dropped 5.7%. The January–July surplus rose to €125.8bn from €122.8bn a year earlier.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications</li> <li>1600 - EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook</li> <li>1700 – US to sell USD 39 billion 10-year Notes</li> <li>2301 – UK Aug. RICS House Price Balance</li> </ul> <p>US Treasury begins expanded buybacks of longer-dated bonds</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Today:</strong> Inditex</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Oracle, Adobe</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% as oil neared $100 and revived inflation and rate-hike concerns. Health care led losses, with Amgen down 10.1% after Novartis’ failed Lp(a) cardiovascular trial raised doubts around the same drug class, while software also weakened on renewed AI disruption fears. Qualcomm gained 3.2% after signing a major AI-chip partnership with Amazon, while Corning jumped 7.6% and Lumentum 11.0% after Verizon agreed to buy more than 80 million miles of high-density fibre. US inflation data remained the next key test. </li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 edged 0.1% lower, the DAX finished flat and the FTSE 100 fell 0.1% as higher oil prices kept inflation and interest-rate concerns in focus. Health care was the main drag after Novartis plunged 10.9%, its worst day on record, as del-desiran failed a late-stage trial and added to recent pipeline setbacks. Mining moved the other way as record copper prices lifted Antofagasta 4.7%, while Kion gained 6.8% after Citi upgraded the warehouse-equipment maker to Buy. Investors now turned to Thursday’s European Central Bank decision, where markets expected another rate increase. </li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities were mixed on Wednesday as AI and chip strength offset another rise in oil and a stronger yen. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed, South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.1%. SK Hynix rose 2.7% as the semiconductor rally extended. Japanese cable makers also surged after the Verizon-Corning fibre deal boosted expectations for data-centre connectivity demand, while higher copper prices supported regional materials stocks. The main tension remained unchanged: AI optimism was helping selected sectors, but oil near $100 was keeping inflation and rate risks firmly in view.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.72 | VIX FUTURES: 18.45 (level only, roll) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (148.86) | MOVE: 76.14 | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:30 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Strikes on Iranian tankers and crude near USD 100 lifted rate-hike bets into Friday's US inflation print. <strong>Cash VIX rose 2.75% to 15.72</strong>, but the standout is <strong>VIX9D, up 23.73% to 14.81</strong>, its window now spanning both the price release and next week's Federal Reserve decision. The one-day gauge fell 13.30% to 10.43.</li> <li><strong>The cash curve holds contango</strong> to 21.78 at one year, SKEW 148.86, MOVE 76.14. <strong>Oil volatility at 48.59</strong> is triple the VIX. SPX options imply roughly <strong>36 points (0.46%) today and 74 points (0.96%) by Friday</strong>. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong><span class="underline; ">Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</span></strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~78,894 (+0.57%) | ETHEREUM ~2,498 (+0.52%) | IBIT 44.39 (-1.86%) | ETHA 18.72 (+1.08%) | AS OF ~06:30 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto held firm overnight while the US-listed complex split sharply. <strong>Miners led</strong>, Cleanspark up 6.23%, Iren 5.04% and Cipher 4.34% on continued data centre demand, against <strong>Strategy down 4.40%, Circle 5.75% and Coinbase 3.09%</strong> as Tuesday's equity weakness hit the platform and treasury names hardest.</li> <li><strong>The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted OpenReserve preliminary conditional approval</strong> on 2 September to charter a full-service national bank with onchain settlement. Operations are not yet authorised: the firm must still meet pre-opening conditions, raise USD 210 million and secure deposit insurance.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Brent crude </strong>futures trades near USD 100 a barrel after US forces attacked five Iranian crude oil tankers near the Kharg Island export hub, in retaliation for the IRGC targeting a US warship with ballistic missiles. Tehran responded by firing missiles at Jordan and warning ships in the Persian Gulf, while Houthi militants struck Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. Together, these developments point to continued supply tightness and an elevated risk of further price gains. The refined product market remains tight with diesel trading near USD 200 per barrel, while EU natural gas has risen above USD 34/MMBtu. EIA's Short-term energy outlook due later today. </li> <li><strong>OPEC crude production</strong> fell by 900,000 b/d last month to 19.9 million b/d, almost 10 million b/d below pre-war levels, and partly reversing the increase that followed the signing of the now-failed MOU. The decline was primarily driven by a 1.1 million b/d slump in Saudi output amid attacks on pipeline infrastructure, only partly offset by increases from Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela. <em>(Source: Bloomberg production survey). </em></li> <li><strong>Gold</strong> touched a one-week low of USD 4,341 in Asia as rising oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations, before rebounding towards USD 4,390. Bullion has fallen around 2.6% over the past three sessions, with traders roughly evenly split over whether the Fed will raise rates when it meets next week. Before then, August CPI and PPI data later this week could prove decisive in shaping expectations for the September meeting.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields remain pinned near the highs of the cycle for much of the US treasury yield curve</strong> as the market notes high crude oil and especially high gasoline and diesel prices ahead of Friday’s pivotal US August CPI number, the last major macro number heading into next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where a 25-basis point rate hike is only about 62% priced in, meaning that we are headed for a surprise in either direction. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield trades near 4.40%, less than two basis points below the cycle high, even after a Treasury auction of 3-year notes saw the strongest demand metrics this year. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield traded near 4.79% vs. the cycle high last week just above 4.81%.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yields fell all along the yield curve Wednesday. </strong>The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dropped back 1.5 basis points to below 1.84%, perhaps as the sharply stronger Japanese yen is seen as likely to remove some of the urgency to tighten policy rates. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell back nearly three basis points by late Tokyo trading hours Wednesday and is eyeing its lowest daily close in nearly three weeks near 2.87%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Japanese yen strength faded early Tuesday, but was renewed later in the day and early Wednesday in Asian trading hours. </strong> After pulling back from a sub-153.00 low early Tuesday and backfilling as high as 154.42, USDJPY pushed back lower to 153.25 and EURJPY traded near 178.40 early Wednesday after a 179.49 high late Tuesday. </li> <li><strong>The US dollar</strong> traded broadly on its back foot late Tuesday and early Wednesday, as <strong>EURUSD</strong> edged back toward recent highs, trading 1.1635, and <strong>GBPUSD</strong> above 1.3550 and near local highs, while <strong>AUDUSD</strong> pulled to a new high ince May just above the prior high-water mark of 0.7231.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Dollar diversification: 5 places to look beyond US equities</h1> <p>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>For much of the past decade, owning US equities delivered investors two powerful tailwinds: US market outperformance and, for many international investors, a strong US dollar.</span></p> <p><span>That combination may be becoming less reliable, and the case for dollar diversification is becoming more structural than cyclical.</span></p> <p><span>US debt is above USD40 trillion, fiscal deficits remain large and interest costs are rising. That does not imply a dollar collapse, but it does raise the longer-term risk of <strong>gradual currency debasement and weaker real purchasing power</strong> if inflation stays higher and policymakers tolerate stronger nominal growth to manage the debt burden.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, <strong>reserve managers are gradually diversifying</strong> into assets such as gold, while many investors already have heavy exposure to US equities, US bonds and the dollar.</span></p> <p><span>The point is not to call the end of dollar dominance. It is to reduce dependence on <strong>one currency, one market and one policy regime</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean investors need to abandon US equities. But after years of US market leadership, many portfolios may have accumulated significant exposure to both US stocks and the US dollar.</span></p> <p><span>Diversification therefore increasingly means thinking about <strong>currency as well as geography</strong>.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><span>Here are five places investors could look.</span></h2> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>1. Australia: commodities plus a stronger AUD</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Australia may offer one of the more interesting combinations of currency and equity diversification.</span></p> <p><span>The Australian dollar can benefit from a softer US dollar, relatively high Australian interest rates and strength in commodities. Copper has just reached a record of around USD14,700 a tonne amid tight global supply, adding another potential tailwind for Australia's resources sector.</span></p> <p><span>For equity investors, this points towards miners such as <strong>BHP</strong> and <strong>Rio Tinto</strong>, which offer exposure to commodities including iron ore and copper and have very different earnings drivers from the technology-heavy US market.</span></p> <p><span>Broad Australian equity ETFs offer another route for investors who do not want to select individual companies.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> A sharp slowdown in China, falling commodity prices or a dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia could weaken both the AUD and Australian equity story.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>2. Japan: favour domestic beneficiaries over exporters</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Japanese yen has staged one of the sharpest currency reversals this year, recently reaching a seven-month high as investors price faster Bank of Japan tightening and unwind yen-funded carry trades. Markets are heavily pricing a 25-basis-point BOJ hike next week.</span></p> <p><span>But investors need to be selective.</span></p> <p><span>A stronger yen is <strong>not automatically positive for every Japanese stock</strong>. Large exporters can see overseas earnings worth less when translated back into yen and may lose some international competitiveness.</span></p> <p><span>Instead, investors looking for exposure to Japanese normalisation could consider more domestically oriented businesses. Banks such as <strong>Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group</strong> and <strong>Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group</strong> are worth screening because higher domestic interest rates can potentially support lending margins.</span></p> <p><span>A broad Japan ETF provides another option, although investors should pay particular attention to whether the fund hedges its currency exposure. An unhedged fund provides exposure to both Japanese equities and movements in the yen.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> The yen has already moved quickly. If the BOJ delivers less tightening than markets expect, some of the recent currency rally could reverse.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>3. Singapore: home-currency assets and income</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For Singapore-based investors, diversification does not necessarily have to mean going further overseas.</span></p> <p><span>Investors whose future spending is primarily in SGD but whose portfolios are heavily invested in US assets have a natural currency mismatch. Adding SGD-denominated assets can help balance that exposure while providing access to sectors that are relatively underrepresented in US indices.</span></p> <p><strong><span>DBS</span></strong><span> provides exposure to Singapore and regional banking, while <strong>Singapore Exchange</strong> offers a different financial-market earnings stream. Singapore's REIT market can also provide income exposure, although higher global bond yields remain an important risk.</span></p> <p><span>Investors who prefer broader exposure can consider Singapore equity or dividend ETFs rather than selecting individual companies.</span></p> <p><span>The important point is not that SGD assets will necessarily outperform US equities. It is that <strong>home-currency assets can play a different role in a Singapore investor's portfolio</strong>, particularly when future liabilities are also in SGD.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>4. Europe: different sectors, different currency</span></strong></h3> <p><span>European equities can provide diversification on two levels.</span></p> <p><span>First is currency: unhedged European investments provide EUR exposure rather than USD exposure.</span></p> <p><span>Second, and arguably more important, is the composition of the equity market. Europe offers relatively greater exposure to financials, industrials, healthcare and luxury goods, compared with the technology-heavy US market.</span></p> <p><span>Stocks worth screening could include <strong>Allianz</strong> for financials and income, <strong>Siemens</strong> for industrial and infrastructure exposure, and <strong>SAP</strong> for investors who still want technology exposure without adding another US mega-cap.</span></p> <p><span>Broad European ETFs may be the cleaner option for investors seeking diversification rather than a company-specific view.</span></p> <p><span>The macro backdrop is also changing. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week as renewed inflation pressures complicate monetary policy.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> European growth remains less dynamic than the US, while fiscal and political risks can periodically weigh on both European equities and the euro.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>5. UK: income and value outside the US growth trade</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The UK offers another very different equity-market mix.</span></p> <p><span>The FTSE 100 has relatively large exposure to financials, energy, healthcare and consumer staples, while offering significantly less exposure to expensive technology stocks.</span></p> <p><span>Companies such as <strong>HSBC</strong> can provide financial and Asian economic exposure, while <strong>Unilever</strong> offers defensive global consumer exposure. For investors focused on income, a broad UK or UK dividend ETF may be more useful than trying to select individual stocks.</span></p> <p><span>Sterling exposure provides another source of currency diversification, although the UK's high inflation and fiscal challenges mean GBP is not a low-risk alternative to the dollar. UK long-term government borrowing costs have recently climbed to their highest levels since comparable records began in 1998.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What to watch:</span></strong><span> Fiscal concerns, weak growth and persistent inflation remain important risks for UK assets.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Stocks or ETFs?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are two different ways investors can approach dollar diversification.</span></p> <p><strong><span>ETFs can make sense when the objective is portfolio diversification.</span></strong><span> A broad Australia, Japan, Europe, Singapore or UK ETF spreads company-specific risk while giving investors exposure to another market and, if unhedged, another currency.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Individual stocks can make sense when investors have a stronger sector or company view.</span></strong><span> Australian miners, Japanese banks or European financials, for example, may offer more targeted exposure to the underlying macro theme.</span></p> <p><span>Investors should also check whether an international ETF is <strong>currency hedged or unhedged</strong>. Currency hedging was valuable when the dollar was strengthening because it reduced the drag from weaker foreign currencies. If the dollar enters a sustained weaker phase, however, unhedged international exposure can potentially add to returns.</span></p> <h2 class="heading--2"><span></span><strong ><span>Risks to the view</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The dollar could still remain stronger for longer.</span></p> <p><span>US productivity and AI-led growth could sustain capital inflows, higher real yields could keep dollar assets attractive, and the USD remains the world's dominant reserve currency and a key safe haven during market stress. </span></p> <p><span>Fiscal challenges are also not uniquely American, so moving away from USD does not automatically mean moving into stronger currencies.</span></p> <p><span>The risk to the diversification thesis is therefore <strong>continued US exceptionalism: stronger growth, higher yields and persistent US equity leadership</strong>. That is why this is a diversification argument, not a one-way bearish dollar call.</span></p> <br /></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>All ideas</span> <span>Macro</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>