Luxury stocks are on sale. But is anything actually cheap?</h1> <article> <h1>Luxury stocks are on sale. But is anything actually cheap?</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>China is not disappearing as a luxury market,</strong> but consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Years of price increases have tested the limits</strong> of what aspirational customers are willing to pay.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Falling shares improve valuations,</strong> but Hermès, LVMH, Kering and Richemont offer very different investment cases.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>European luxury shares have come under pressure, reflecting weaker growth, more cautious consumers and high expectations built up over previous years. Lower share prices do not automatically create opportunities, but they are making the investment question more interesting.</span><span > </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>China is spending, just not like before</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For years, the luxury formula looked straightforward. Rising Chinese wealth created millions of new aspirational consumers, who wanted their first Louis Vuitton bag, Gucci belt or luxury watch.</span></p> <p><span>That engine has not disappeared. It has changed gears.</span></p> <p><span>China's personal luxury market shrank between 3% and 5% in 2025, according to <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.bain.com/insights/the-2025-chinese-personal-luxury-goods-market/" target="_blank">Bain</a>, after a much steeper decline in 2024. Bain expects modest growth this year, but the recovery remains uneven.</span></p> <p><span>More importantly, Chinese shoppers are becoming selective. <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/prestige-beauty-outpaces-high-end-bags-chinas-luxury-spending-evolves-2026-08-04/" target="_blank">Recent research</a> found 37% of affluent consumers planned to increase spending on prestige beauty, compared with just 4% for leather goods. L'Oréal says premium beauty is growing strongly in China, while LVMH described Chinese spending in the first half as broadly flat.</span></p> <p><span>The logic is simple. A premium moisturiser can feel like an affordable indulgence. A handbag costing several thousand euros is easier to postpone.</span></p> <p><span>Yet there are important exceptions. Richemont, owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, reported 24% growth in jewellery sales last quarter and double-digit growth in Greater China. Jewellery can offer something handbags increasingly struggle to provide: perceived lasting value alongside status.</span></p> <p><span>Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli also continue to report solid Asian growth. China is therefore not simply "weak". Brand, category and customer matter more than ever.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Pricing power has met a price ceiling</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Luxury companies spent years proving they could raise prices without losing customers. Eventually, they decided to test that proposition rather enthusiastically.</span></p> <p><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252/global-luxury-stays-resilient-despite-economic-headwinds-and-shifting-consumer-trends-that-reshape-marketbain--company-and-altagamma/" target="_blank">Bain</a> estimates the global luxury customer base fell from around 400 million people in 2022 to roughly 340 million in 2025. It argues that repeated price increases pushed many aspirational customers away while also frustrating some wealthier buyers.</span></p> <p><span>This matters because pricing power is valuable only when customers remain willing to pay.</span></p> <p><span>Hermès sits at one extreme. Scarce production, waiting lists and exceptionally wealthy customers protect demand. First-half sales still grew 6% at constant currencies, while its recurring operating margin remained an extraordinary 41%.</span></p> <p><span>LVMH faces a broader challenge. It owns around 70 brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany and Bulgari. That diversification offers protection, but its crucial fashion and leather goods division is recovering only gradually. First-half organic group sales rose 2%, while management continues to see only limited improvement in Chinese spending.</span></p> <p><span>Kering faces the hardest version of this test. Gucci remains central to profits and its recovery. Second-quarter Gucci sales fell 2% on a comparable basis, much better than earlier quarters, but mainland China remained challenging. The good news is that momentum is improving. The less comfortable news is that a turnaround still needs to become sustained growth.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Four stocks, four different labels</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is where lower share prices become useful rather than automatically attractive.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Hermès offers the strongest economics but also the highest expectations.</span></strong><span> Even after its decline, the shares trade at roughly the mid-30s times trailing earnings. Investors are still paying substantially more for each euro of profit than at LVMH.</span></p> <p><strong><span>LVMH offers diversification at a more subdued valuation.</span></strong><span> Its shares trade at roughly 20 times trailing earnings. The investment case depends less on perfection and more on whether Louis Vuitton, Dior and other major brands can restore healthier growth.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Kering is a turnaround.</span></strong><span> Current earnings are depressed enough that simple price-to-earnings comparisons are less useful. The key question is whether Gucci can rebuild desirability while Kering improves margins and keeps debt under control.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Richemont offers a different exposure.</span></strong><span> Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels put it closer to resilient branded jewellery than fashion-led luxury. That has supported stronger growth, but also means investors already recognise much of that quality.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>What could keep the markdown going?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is that China's recovery remains weak or shifts permanently away from traditional European brands. Watch Chinese sales trends, particularly for leather goods.</span></p> <p><span>The second is creative execution. Luxury products are unusual assets because yesterday's bestseller can become tomorrow's unsold inventory. New collections at Gucci, Dior and other major houses need to translate attention into purchases.</span></p> <p><span>Finally, weaker currencies, tourism flows and economic confidence can squeeze sales and margins even when the underlying brand remains healthy.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Separate share-price weakness from business weakness.</span></strong><span> Falling prices help only if long-term earning power remains intact.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Track customer mix.</span></strong><span> Brands serving ultra-wealthy buyers may behave differently from those relying heavily on aspirational consumers.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Compare valuation with expectations.</span></strong><span> A wonderful company can disappoint if its share price already assumes wonderful results.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Watch evidence, not recovery stories.</span></strong><span> China sales, margins, new-product demand and cash generation provide better signals than hopeful headlines.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The label matters more than the discount</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Luxury investing used to look easy because several powerful forces moved together: Chinese wealth expanded, aspirational shoppers joined the market and brands repeatedly raised prices. Those forces now pull in different directions.</span></p> <p><span>That makes the sector harder, but also more interesting for investors. Hermès still demonstrates what exceptional scarcity can achieve. LVMH offers breadth and a lower starting valuation. Richemont shows the resilience of jewellery. Kering offers greater recovery potential, but also greater execution risk.</span></p> <p><span>The useful lesson extends beyond handbags and watches. A great company is not automatically a great investment at every price, just as a falling share price does not automatically create a bargain. When the entire luxury shelf gets marked down, investors still need to read the labels.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<em><br /> </em></em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Luxury</span> <span>Luxury Goods</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Copper versus gold: what an old macro signal is telling us now</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Copper-to-gold ratio remains historically low</strong>: Around 3.24, still signaling gold’s strength, though copper has recently recovered slightly. </li> <li><strong>Macro signal is less clear</strong>: Copper reflects industrial demand, but electrification, AI buildout, supply constraints, and geopolitics now play a larger role; gold is supported by central bank buying and diversification. </li> <li><strong>Copper is still an industrial meta</strong>l: Higher prices can trigger substitution, efficiency gains, and demand destruction. </li> <li><strong>Gold faces fewer constraints</strong>: Driven by investment and central banks, it is less exposed to demand destruction and may outperform in a risk-hedging environment.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>An old macro signal in a changing world</strong></h3> <p>For decades, the relationship between copper and gold has been used as a shorthand indicator of the health of the global economy. Copper represents growth, construction, manufacturing and investment, while gold represents safety, monetary uncertainty and demand for a store of value.</p> <p>The traditional interpretation is straightforward. A rising copper-to-gold ratio tends to be associated with improving economic expectations and greater risk appetite. A falling ratio suggests copper is underperforming as growth expectations weaken or gold is outperforming as investors seek protection.</p> <p>At first glance, the current reading therefore sends a rather gloomy message. <span >The ratio between LME copper, quoted in dollars per tonne, and spot gold, quoted in dollars per ounce, currently stands around 3.24. That leaves it close to the lower end of its 20-year range, despite recovering from around 2.5 earlier this year after gold’s sharp rally to record highs and subsequent consolidation.</span></p> <p>Historically, such depressed readings might have been interpreted as a warning of recession or severe economic weakness. Today, that conclusion looks much less straightforward. The reason is that both sides of the ratio are increasingly being influenced by structural forces that extend well beyond the traditional economic cycle.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">LME Copper - Spot Gold ratio - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Copper is no longer just Dr Copper</strong></h3> <p>Copper has earned its reputation as "Dr Copper" because of its ability to diagnose changes in economic activity. Its widespread use across construction, manufacturing, transportation and electrical equipment means demand has historically moved closely with the industrial cycle. That relationship remains relevant, but the copper market is changing.</p> <p>Electrification, renewable energy, electricity grids, electric vehicles and increasingly the enormous power requirements associated with data centres and AI infrastructure are creating sources of demand that are less directly tied to the conventional business cycle. The IEA expects copper to record the largest volume growth among the major critical minerals through 2040, driven particularly by electricity networks and next-generation technologies.</p> <p>At the same time, the supply response remains constrained. Declining ore grades, long mine-development timelines, permitting challenges, capital discipline and disruptions at major producers have all limited the industry's ability to respond quickly to higher prices.</p> <p>Add trade fragmentation and competition between the US and China for physical metal, and copper increasingly contains a scarcity premium alongside its traditional growth premium.</p> <p>This is important when interpreting the copper-to-gold ratio. A rising ratio does not necessarily mean global growth is accelerating. It may instead reflect tightening physical supply or a structural repricing of copper's importance to the energy and technology transition.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">LME Copper trades near record levels - Source: Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Gold has undergone an equally important transformation</strong></h3> <p>The other side of the ratio has arguably changed even more. Gold remains sensitive to real interest rates, the dollar and investor risk appetite, but its recent performance increasingly reflects concerns that are difficult to capture through conventional economic indicators.</p> <p>Geopolitical fragmentation, rising government debt, fiscal sustainability concerns, tariff threats and questions about the future composition of global reserve holdings have increased demand for assets perceived to sit outside the traditional financial system. Gold in particular benefits as a universally recognised and politically neutral asset, not linked to any country’s creditworthiness, making it attractive amid fiat debasement concerns. It is also becoming a core and rising component of central bank reserves and is increasingly viewed as a long-term strategic asset within asset allocation frameworks, given its tendency to be uncorrelated or even negatively correlated with key financial assets.</p> <p>Central banks have been central to this shift. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have accumulated an average of around 1,000 tonnes of gold annually during the past four years, roughly double the average of the preceding decade. Its 2026 survey also found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the coming 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase holdings.</p> <p>The trend has recently accelerated. Central bank purchases reached almost 289 tonnes during the second quarter, while geopolitical tensions, a softer dollar and shifting interest-rate expectations have helped drive renewed investor interest. Gold is therefore increasingly trading not simply as a hedge against recession, but as a hedge against monetary, fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty. That distinction matters for the copper-to-gold ratio.</p> </h2></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot Gold is consolidating following a record run that was followed by a deep correction - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Low ratio does not necessarily mean recession</strong></h3> <p>The current low ratio should therefore not automatically be interpreted as signalling an approaching global recession. Instead, it may be telling us that the monetary and geopolitical premium embedded in gold remains exceptionally large relative to the scarcity and growth premium embedded in copper.</p> <p>There is a considerable difference between copper collapsing while gold rallies and both metals rallying while gold rises faster. The first is the classic recessionary signal. The second may instead describe a world in which investors remain willing to finance infrastructure, electrification and technology investment while simultaneously becoming increasingly uncomfortable with sovereign debt, geopolitical instability and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.</p> <p>This makes the ratio less useful as a mechanical forecasting tool but arguably more interesting as an indicator of the prevailing macro regime.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The crucial difference between copper and gold</strong></h3> <p>There is another reason why gold may ultimately retain the upper hand in relative performance. However compelling the structural bull case for copper becomes, copper is still an industrial metal first and foremost.</p> <p>Consumers need copper because they need what copper can do. That means price matters. At sufficiently elevated prices, companies will respond. Manufacturers can reduce copper intensity, redesign products, substitute aluminium where technically feasible, increase recycling, delay projects or simply decide that certain investments are no longer economic.</p> <p>In other words, higher copper prices eventually contain the seeds of their own demand destruction. The threshold may be considerably higher than in previous cycles given the urgency of grid investment, electrification and AI-related infrastructure spending. Supply scarcity could therefore still drive copper substantially higher. But industrial demand ultimately has an economic price ceiling, even if nobody knows precisely where it sits.</p> <p>Gold operates differently. High gold prices certainly destroy jewellery demand, something already visible in World Gold Council data, but jewellery is no longer the only important marginal driver of the market. In Q1, for example, jewellery volumes fell sharply while bar and coin investment surged and central banks continued to accumulate metal. The WGC notes that investment demand now significantly exceeds fabrication demand.</p> <p>For an investor or central bank seeking gold as portfolio insurance, reserve diversification or protection against currency debasement, a rising price can even reinforce the investment case rather than destroy it. That creates an important asymmetry between the two metals.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Physical scarcity versus monetary scarcity</strong></h3> <p>Copper may therefore continue to rally because the world needs more copper than the mining industry can comfortably supply. Gold may continue to rally because investors and central banks increasingly want an asset whose supply cannot be expanded by governments or central banks.</p> <p>Both are hard assets, but they protect against different forms of scarcity. Copper represents <strong>physical scarcity</strong>: the difficulty of supplying enough raw materials to meet the demands of electrification, grids, defence, AI infrastructure and economic development.</p> <p>Gold increasingly represents <strong>monetary scarcity</strong>: an asset with limited supply that carries no counterparty risk at a time of rising debt, geopolitical fragmentation and growing demand for reserve diversification.</p> <p>This distinction could become increasingly important. If the investment environment continues to favour alternative assets and hard assets, copper should remain an obvious beneficiary. However, its industrial nature means increasingly high prices will eventually encounter resistance from consumers.</p> <p>Gold does not face the same constraint. Its marginal demand increasingly comes from investors and central banks, and for these buyers the objective is not to consume gold but to hold it. That leaves open the possibility that even in a structurally bullish environment for copper, gold may continue to outperform.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Still useful, but no longer an economic oracle</strong></h3> <p>None of this makes the copper-to-gold ratio redundant. Rather, the way we interpret it needs to evolve.</p> <p>At 3.24, the ratio remains historically depressed but has recovered noticeably from this year's lows. That may indicate copper is beginning to claw back some relative ground as physical scarcity becomes more acute.</p> <p>But I would be reluctant to interpret the rebound simply as evidence of improving global growth. The ratio should increasingly be viewed alongside copper inventories and spreads, Chinese demand indicators, manufacturing PMIs, real yields, the dollar, government bond markets and central bank gold purchases.</p> <p>In that context, the copper-to-gold ratio is perhaps evolving from a simple <strong>"growth versus fear"</strong> indicator into something broader. It is becoming a contest between <strong>physical scarcity and monetary scarcity</strong> - between the metal required to build the future and the metal increasingly being accumulated as insurance against the financial system being used to finance it.</p> <p>And while copper's structural outlook remains compelling, the absence of the same industrial demand-destruction constraint may ultimately give gold an important advantage if the global search for hard assets continues.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-stabilise-supported-by-fuel-and-weather-risks-10072026" data-id="4ED5076463844467937EDB4EC15B051E" data-type="Article">Commodities stabilise supported by fuel and weather risks</a><br /> 8 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-jumps-as-fragile-iran-ceasefire-unravels-08072026" data-id="8340F8C40CF24790A81AFB5C27E9FC36" data-type="Article">Oil jumps as fragile Iran ceasefire unravels</a><br /> 7 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-update-elevated-dollar-and-rate-bets-build-as-commodity-selling-eases-07072026" data-id="174ACA802F804A26BEA9146FA3307EA3" data-type="Article">COT update Elevated dollar and rate bets build as commodity selling eases</a><br /> 6 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-liquidation-to-consolidation-precious-metals-seek-a-floor-06072026" data-id="FA244884F220435AA0B77DA93C93F576" data-type="Article">From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor</a><br /> 3 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-steady-as-lower-inflation-risks-and-softer-jobs-data-calm-markets-03072026" data-id="AFB9B2C449E14D28BEE612FF3DF4CFD5" data-type="Article">Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets</a><br /> 2 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/soft-commodities-rebound-as-weather-risks-and-supply-fears-return-02072026" data-id="79C0142B8A924B3F9F4AACA918B4DBC3" data-type="Article">Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return</a><br /> 1 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/tour-de-france-the-7-kg-commodity-basket-behind-the-worlds-fastest-bikes-01072026" data-id="F58220087AE942968C7B95AE3C901CD7" data-type="Article">Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes</a><br /> 30 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-await-usda-reality-check-after-fund-driven-round-trip-30062026" data-id="E0087906E74F40B8A556AE23C9DB6457" data-type="Article">Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip</a><br /> 29 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-crowded-positioning-raises-the-risk-of-sharp-countertrend-moves-29062026" data-id="EF501A5FCDE9454AA1D067808DD20653" data-type="Article">COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves</a><br /> 26 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-june-reset-as-peace-hopes-hawkish-fed-and-fund-liquidation-hit-crowded-longs-26062026" data-id="E494FE7512B3471784C3FDFF321AFBE0" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly June reset as peace hopes hawkish Fed and fund liquidation hit crowded longs</a><br /> 25 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-and-silver-slide-as-dollar-strength-fuels-another-round-of-liquidation-25062026" data-id="CFC4736F1EF8443085BD1AA004A0F3F9" data-type="Article">Gold and silver slide as dollar strength fuels another round of liquidation</a><br /> 24 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-prices-reset-as-stranded-gulf-barrels-head-for-market-24062026" data-id="573F6D4CA8824A728B211E48D18CC079" data-type="Article">Oil prices reset as stranded Gulf barrels head for market</a><br /> 23 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/metals-struggle-as-markets-price-peak-hawkishness-not-peak-demand-23062026" data-id="F3A2147B48E547D3A83EF8CDBC3C8CCC" data-type="Article">Metals struggle as markets price peak hawkishness not peak demand</a><br /> 18 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/weather-risk-returns-as-el-nino-threatens-crops-grids-and-mines-18062026" data-id="6078082EBB0940AF83B61C1D048CB87A" data-type="Article">Weather risk returns as El Nino threatens crops grids and mines</a><br /> 17 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-steady-as-oil-driven-inflation-fears-fade-17062026" data-id="AB2DE3E50D2D412D98FA0262B6F1124F" data-type="Article">Precious metals steady as oil-driven inflation fears fade</a><br /> 16 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-retreats-as-peace-hopes-rise-but-depleted-inventories-may-limit-the-downside-16062026" data-id="5171F98D13DA4575AE80384564E9A894" data-type="Article">Oil retreats as peace hopes rise but depleted inventories may limit the downside</a><br /> 15 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-9-june-15062026" data-id="A3E3A134484D474A9891BB134D6E4850" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 9 June</a><br /> 12 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-slide-as-markets-price-a-tentative-path-to-peace-12062026" data-id="C14F020688304602992456627B337C06" data-type="Article">Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace</a><br /> 9 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-slips-below-200-day-average-as-inflation-jobs-and-fed-risks-bite-09062026" data-id="F5E40862072D4B67939C2CE8EE10AB69" data-type="Article">Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite</a><br /> 8 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-2-june-2026-08062026" data-id="3DEB0D968569401BBFCE06B024A23293" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026</a><br /> 4 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-rally-faces-tariff-roulette-but-fundamentals-remain-tight-04062026" data-id="709882EC371D48F8997BBDC6857538CD" data-type="Article">Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Sugar</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Asia gives back its chip-led open as oil firms and long yields hit a 19-year high - 18 August 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Risk sentiment falters on geopolitical tensions and new modern high in US 30-year yield</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and European equities slipped as oil and yields rose, Asia turned mixed as Korean chip strength met broader risk-off pressure.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Near-term protection was bid back off the floor as energy and rate volatility climbed</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Listed crypto proxies rallied hard while the underlying majors drifted quietly sideways</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold holds despite yield rise, crude firmer on Middle East risk and scarcity keeps copper bid.</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global bond markets under pressure on higher energy prices, although auction of 5-year JGB’s drew strong demand.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD weakness reverses as global risk sentiment softens.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Australia's Aug. Westpac Consumer Confidence rose to 88.9</strong>, a five-month high and up from 83.9 in July after scraping near the multi-year lows in April through June.</li> <li><strong>US President Trump said he is not interested in extending the 60-day ceasefire deal that technically expired Monday</strong>. He repeated the idea of making the Strait of Hormuz a US Territory.</li> <li><strong>Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June</strong>, still below the 3.2% post-Iran-war peak. Gasoline inflation climbed to 25.7% on renewed Iran–US tensions. Core inflation inched up (median 2.0%, trimmed 1.9%), with World Cup–driven travel costs surging, while food and shelter inflation eased. Month over month, prices gained 0.5% after a 0.4% decline.</li> <li><strong>The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 25 in August 2026 from 34 in July</strong>, defying expectations for 33. Current sales conditions rose two points to 39, and sales expectations stayed at 43. Price cuts were reported by 35% of builders (down two points), averaging 6%.</li> <li><strong>The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August from 15.6</strong>, far above expectations and the strongest since late 2021. New orders and shipments increased, delivery times lengthened, and inventories fell amid worsening supply conditions. Employment edged up, input costs rose, and selling prices stayed elevated, while firms remained optimistic despite modest capex plans.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK Jun. Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Earnings data</li> <li>0600 – UK Jul. Claimant Count Change, Payrolled Employees Change</li> <li>0900 – Germany Aug. ZEW Survey</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for four weeks through Aug 1</li> <li>1230 – US Jul. Housing Starts and Building Permits</li> <li>1315 – US Jul. Industrial Production</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Home Depot, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Walmart, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,745.06, the Dow lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2% as higher oil prices and long-term Treasury yields pressured risk appetite. <strong>Microsoft dropped 3.0% and Meta 3.5% as higher yields weighed on large growth stocks</strong>, while Constellation Brands fell 6.2% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had exited the position. <strong>Chips bucked the weakness, with Micron up 4.1% as US trade policy signalled resistance to Apple sourcing memory from China</strong>. Investors now turn to Home Depot and Walmart for a fresh read on the US consumer.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% to 656.41 and the FTSE 100 lost 0.3% to 10,720.30 as geopolitical tension and rising oil prices cooled risk appetite. Argenx jumped 17.1% after its drug met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 autoimmune myositis study, while SIG Group slumped 17.6% after an unexpected chief executive change. <strong>Consumer names were weak, with LVMH down 2.7% and Kering 4.3% lower as luxury stocks retreated broadly.</strong> With earnings largely behind Europe, attention is shifting back toward September central-bank decisions and the inflation implications of higher energy prices.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Markets turned lower through Tuesday’s session as the US-Iran truce expired, oil stayed above $90 and bond yields climbed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell around 1.8% and the Hang Seng lost 0.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi gave back an early gain of more than 3% and moved into negative territory after reopening from Monday’s holiday. <strong>SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics initially rallied with the global chip trade before gains faded as risk appetite weakened. Geely remained in focus after strong first-half results</strong> and a leadership reshuffle, while Xiaomi reports today, with investors watching electric-vehicle momentum and input costs.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Protection was bid back off the floor as crude firmed and the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. <strong>VIX rose 6.60% to 15.19</strong> and VIX9D jumped 16.78% to 12.39, while <strong>VVIX added 7.36% to 93.92</strong>. Same-day VIX1D went the other way, down 9.37% to 8.32.</li> <li>The cash curve stays in contango, 15.19 spot against 19.04 at three months and 23.04 at one year, the front future at 18.15. <strong>SKEW reached 142.91</strong>, MOVE jumped 8.70% to 75.63 and oil vol hit 52.92. SPX options imply <strong>0.37% today and 0.83% into Friday</strong>, with the FOMC minutes Wednesday.</li> <li>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The listed proxies did the work while the majors drifted. <strong>Strategy rose 4.99%</strong>, Marathon 5.60%, Riot 5.39% and Cipher 3.61%, with Circle up 4.18% and Coinbase 1.40%, against spot bitcoin and ether both easing overnight. <strong>DVOL slipped to 34.49</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Strategy paid USD 52.4 million of dividends on its STRC preferred and then spent USD 132.2 million buying that stock back</strong>, leaving its bitcoin reserve unchanged near 840,000 coins for a further week.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude firmed again, with Brent reaching a two-week high above USD 91 after Trump rejected extending the US-Iran agreement, while new attacks on vessels were reported in the Strait of Hormuz and fighting resumed in Lebanon. Together, these developments have further dimmed prospects for a near-term resolution of the 6½-month-long US/Israel-Iran war. The US continues to signal that it intends to use sustained economic pressure to force Tehran into accepting its demands.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Spot gold traded near USD 4,400, having steadied after gaining 1.5% over the previous two sessions. The metal is up more than 11% over the past month, its strongest 22-session advance since early February, supported by a softer dollar, fading Fed rate-hike expectations and continued demand from central banks. Investor concerns about the US fiscal and debt outlook are also providing support, particularly as long-end Treasury yields continue to rise.</li> <li><strong>Broad commodities:</strong> The BCOM TR index has now rebounded 13% from its late-June correction low and trades just 3.2% below the record high reached in May. Notably, the recovery has been broad-based, with all major sectors except industrial metals, up 7%, recording double-digit gains from the correction low. Energy and soft commodities lead with gains of more than 19%, followed by grains at 12% and precious metals at 10%. At the individual commodity level, natural gas is the only contract trading lower over the period, while the strongest gains have been seen in diesel, crude oil, coffee, gasoline and sugar.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The benchmark US 30-year Treasury yield hit a fresh 19-year high above 5.30% Monday (up five basis points from Friday’s close) as the US yield curve steepened.</strong> Higher oil prices on the ongoing tensions in the Middle East combined with some recent soft US economic numbers suggest stagflationary concerns. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was also higher, but has yet to threaten above the recent cycle high just below 4.75%, trading near 4.73% early Tuesday. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark US 2-year yield remained rangebound, slightly higher from Friday near 4.19%.</li> <li><strong>The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to a new multi-decade high</strong>, trading nearly as high as 2.97% intraday before dropping back, as a strong 5-year JGB auction Tuesday brought relief for the JGB market.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar weakened further on Monday before finding support as global risk sentiment faltered on rising oil prices and rising US long Treasury yields.</strong> EURUSD traded as high as 1.1614 Monday but was trading near 1.1570 early Tuesday. <strong>AUDUSD</strong> only fell back slightly on Tuesday, trading above 0.7100 after a 0.7129 high on Monday.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY nudged to a new high above 159.60, eyeing the psychological 160.00 level again</strong> and the risk of renewed official Japanese intervention to prevent further JPY weakness. Pressuring the yen are the latest rise in crude oil prices and global bond yields.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Why higher yields are changing the investment playbook</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key takeaways:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>Capital is getting more expensive:</span></strong><span> governments, AI, defence and infrastructure are all competing for funding.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Higher yields may mean something different:</span></strong><span> if fiscal risk is driving yields, the dollar may not strengthen and gold may stay supported.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Portfolio leadership could shift:</span></strong><span> investors may increasingly favour cash generation, balance-sheet strength, income and diversification over leverage and long-duration bets.</span></li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Capital may be becoming the market's next scarce resource</span></strong></h2> <p><span>For much of the post-global-financial-crisis era, investors operated under an implicit assumption: capital was abundant.</span></p> <p><span>Low policy rates, central-bank asset purchases and subdued inflation reduced the cost of financing across governments and corporates. That backdrop supported long-duration bonds, growth equities, leveraged business models and increasingly ambitious fiscal programmes.</span></p> <p><span>We think that regime is becoming more complicated.</span></p> <p><span>The global investment cycle now requires significant capital across several competing areas.</span></p> <ol> <li><span>AI infrastructure spending continues to rise. </span></li> <li><span>Governments are financing large fiscal deficits. </span></li> <li><span>Defence budgets are increasing. </span></li> <li><span>Energy grids require substantial investment. </span></li> <li><span>Manufacturing supply chains are being rebuilt closer to home.</span></li> </ol> <p><span>None of these trends is inherently negative. In fact, higher investment could ultimately support stronger productivity and nominal growth.</span></p> <p><span>But together they raise a different question:</span></p> <p><strong><span>What happens when several of the world's largest borrowers all want more capital at the same time?</span></strong></p> <p><span>The answer, in our view, may increasingly be that investors demand a higher price for providing it.</span></p> <p><span>That makes the <strong>cost of capital</strong> an important macro variable again.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Not all higher yields send the same economic signal</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Investors often treat rising bond yields as a single macro signal. But the source of the move matters.</span></p> <p><span>When yields rise because economic growth is improving, productivity expectations are strengthening and corporate earnings prospects are being revised higher, higher yields can be consistent with a constructive risk backdrop.</span></p> <p><span>We would describe those as <strong>growth-driven higher yields</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The interpretation is different when yields rise because investors require more compensation to absorb large government issuance, inflation uncertainty or fiscal risk.</span></p> <p><span>That is closer to a <strong>term-premium-driven increase in yields</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The distinction matters because the second type of yield increase potentially tightens financial conditions without necessarily reflecting stronger underlying economic fundamentals.</span></p> <p><span>We think current markets contain elements of both.</span></p> <p><span>AI investment and fiscal spending can support nominal growth. But large borrowing requirements and persistent uncertainty around inflation and debt sustainability may also be pushing investors to demand a higher return for holding long-duration assets.</span></p> <p><span>This may help explain why the long end of global bond markets has remained under pressure even as expectations for further near-term US monetary tightening have moderated.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Higher US yields may no longer be automatically dollar-positive</span></strong></h2> <p><span>One of the more interesting features of the current environment has been the divergence between US yields and the dollar.</span></p> <p><span>Historically, higher relative US yields have often supported the currency by attracting capital into dollar assets.</span></p> <p><span>That relationship still matters.</span></p> <p><span>But we think investors should increasingly ask <strong>why US yields are rising</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>If yields move higher because US growth expectations are improving or because the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain tighter policy than other central banks, the dollar would typically be expected to benefit.</span></p> <p><span>If yields rise instead because markets require more compensation for fiscal expansion, Treasury supply or long-term inflation uncertainty, the currency implication becomes less straightforward.</span></p> <p><span>Put differently:</span></p> <p><strong><span>A higher yield generated by stronger economic fundamentals is not necessarily equivalent to a higher yield generated by a larger risk premium.</span></strong></p> <p><span>That distinction may help explain why higher Treasury yields have recently coexisted with less convincing dollar strength.</span></p> <p><span>It could also have broader portfolio consequences.</span></p> <p><span>For international investors, US assets have benefited for years from both strong underlying returns and a strong dollar. If that relationship becomes less consistent, geographical diversification may matter more.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Gold's resilience may be signalling something broader than monetary policy</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Gold presents another challenge to the traditional macro framework.</span></p> <p><span>Elevated real interest rates would normally be expected to create a substantial opportunity cost for holding an asset that produces no income.</span></p> <p><span>Yet gold has remained remarkably resilient.</span></p> <p><span>There are cyclical explanations. Expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening have moderated, geopolitical risks remain elevated and central-bank demand has provided structural support.</span></p> <p><span>But we think there may also be a broader portfolio message.</span></p> <p><span>Gold is increasingly being viewed not only as an inflation hedge but as an asset that sits <strong>outside conventional sovereign liability structures</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That distinction could matter in an environment where government borrowing remains high and investors are increasingly sensitive to fiscal sustainability.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean gold has become insensitive to yields.</span></p> <p><span>Rather, we think its drivers have broadened.</span></p> <p><span>Real yields, the dollar, central-bank demand, geopolitical risk and fiscal credibility may all matter simultaneously.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>In equities, the cost of growth may matter as much as the rate of growth</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The implications may be particularly important for equity investors.</span></p> <p><span>For much of the low-rate era, businesses could be rewarded heavily for revenue growth even when that growth required significant external financing.</span></p> <p><span>A higher cost-of-capital regime changes the calculation.</span></p> <p><span>We think the market may increasingly differentiate between companies that can fund investment through internally generated cash flow and those that require sustained access to debt or equity markets.</span></p> <p><span>That framework is particularly relevant to AI.</span></p> <p><span>The AI opportunity remains structurally significant in our view, but the next stage of the cycle may place greater emphasis on <strong>capital efficiency</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The major hyperscalers are spending aggressively, but most also operate highly cash-generative core businesses.</span></p> <p><span>Further down the AI infrastructure chain, funding models vary considerably.</span></p> <p><span>That suggests the next phase of AI performance may be less about whether a company has AI exposure and more about the relationship between:</span></p> <p><strong><span>growth + cash generation + capital intensity + balance-sheet capacity.</span></strong></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Portfolio implications investors may consider</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The broader implication, in our view, is not a simple rotation from equities into bonds or from growth into value.</span></p> <p><span>It is a shift in what investors may want each part of the portfolio to achieve.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Equities:</span></strong><span> Potentially prioritise earnings durability, strong cash generation and balance-sheet resilience, while still retaining exposure to structural growth themes.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><span> Income and carry may remain attractive, but investors may distinguish between earning yield and making an aggressive duration call. Short-to-intermediate high-quality bonds could remain relevant if long-end volatility stays elevated.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Real assets:</span></strong><span> Gold and selected commodities may offer diversification if fiscal, geopolitical and inflation risks remain unusually persistent.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Geography and FX:</span></strong><span> Greater dispersion between fiscal regimes, currencies and earnings cycles may make global diversification more valuable than it was during the period of overwhelming US market leadership.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>None of these exposures is likely to work in every scenario.</span></p> <p><span>The objective may therefore be less about identifying one winning asset class and more about avoiding a portfolio where the same macro assumption — falling yields, cheap capital or persistent dollar strength — drives every position.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The bigger regime question</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The most important shift may ultimately be conceptual.</span></p> <p><span>The previous market regime rewarded investors for assuming that capital would remain cheap and plentiful.</span></p> <p><span>The emerging regime may reward investors for recognising that capital has a price again.</span></p> <p><span>Governments need funding.</span></p> <p><span>AI requires extraordinary investment.</span></p> <p><span>Defence and energy infrastructure require capital.</span></p> <p><span>And investors are increasingly able to demand compensation for providing it.</span></p> <p><span>We do not think this automatically implies a bearish outlook.</span></p> <p><span>If investment drives productivity, corporate earnings and stronger nominal growth, risk assets can still perform.</span></p> <p><span>But the distribution of returns may change.</span></p> <p><span>Companies capable of financing their own growth may command a premium. Governments may have to pay more to borrow. Long-duration assets may remain more volatile. And diversification across currencies, geographies and real assets could regain importance.</span></p> <p><span>The key investment question may therefore be evolving from:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Where will the strongest growth come from?</span></strong></p> <p><span>to:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Who can fund that growth, what return will capital demand — and who ultimately bears the higher cost?</span></strong></p> <p><span>That, in our view, may be one of the defining portfolio questions of the next several years.</span></p> <p><span><hr /> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Technology</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Commodities</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Asset allocation</span> <span>Gold</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>Income investor – Bonds</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 18 August, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Iran shifts from ‘defensive’ policy to fully ‘offensive’</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>S&P slips on yields and oil, while AI chipmakers rally strongly</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar softens on fading Fed hike bets; CHF outperforms G10; EURCHF nears one-year high</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent rises settling near $91 and gold rallies towards $4,430</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>30Y Treasury yield at 19-year high; record corporate issuance</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is shifting from a defensive to a “fully offensive” stance, giving the US a deadline of a few weeks to implement the MoU.</span></strong></span><span> If diplomacy fails, Iran is prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region, with the timeline conveyed to Washington and regional states via mediators.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June</span></strong></span><span>, still below the 3.2% post-Iran-war peak. Gasoline inflation climbed to 25.7% on renewed Iran–US tensions. Core inflation inched up (median 2.0%, trimmed 1.9%), with World Cup–driven travel costs surging, while food and shelter inflation eased. Month over month, prices gained 0.5% after a 0.4% decline.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 25 in August 2026 from 34 in July</span></strong></span><span>, defying expectations for 33. Current sales conditions rose two points to 39, and sales expectations stayed at 43. Price cuts were reported by 35% of builders (down two points), averaging 6%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August from 15.6</span></strong></span><span>, far above expectations and the strongest since late 2021. New orders and shipments increased, delivery times lengthened, and inventories fell amid worsening supply conditions. Employment edged up, input costs rose, and selling prices stayed elevated, while firms remained optimistic despite modest capex plans.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>China’s retail sales rose 0.6% year-on-year in July, down from 1% in June</span></strong></span><span> and below the 1.5% forecast. Auto sales slumped 17%, while sales excluding autos grew 2.5%. Petroleum, furniture, and building materials declined, but communication equipment, cosmetics, food, and tobacco/alcohol increased. Month-on-month, sales rose 0.06%. January–July retail sales were up 1.2%, or 2.7% excluding autos.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s real GDP grew 1.1% annualized in Q2, missing the 2% forecast and slowing from a revised 1.9% in Q1</span></strong></span><span>, as capital spending slumped and private consumption stalled under inflation, complicating yen support efforts.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US - </span></strong></span><span>S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,745.06, its biggest drop since July 29, as higher oil prices and surging long-end Treasury yields hurt sentiment. The Dow lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.32%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2%. Energy was the only gaining sector; communication services led declines, with all Magnificent Seven stocks down. Microsoft fell 3.0% and Meta 3.8%. Constellation Brands slid 5.7% after Berkshire fully exited its stake, and Stellantis’ US shares dropped nearly 5% on a large recall. Chipmakers outperformed on AI optimism—SanDisk rose 8.9%, Marvell 6.4%, and Micron gained—while Amylyx jumped 12% after hours on positive Phase 3 trial results.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Europe </span></strong></span><span>- European equities ended modestly lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 656.41 and the FTSE 100 off 0.3% to 10,720.30. Chip stocks outperformed (ASML, STMicro, ASMI) on Anthropic’s AI-fueled revenue surge. Argenx jumped up to 18% to a record after Vyvgart met Phase 3 endpoints in two indications. Nestlé was the biggest drag on the Stoxx 600, down 2.8%, while SIG Group slumped 17.6%; Stellantis also fell sharply. The ECB warned in a blog post that an AI-driven stock correction is likely and could have severe euro area repercussions.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Asia </span></strong></span><span>- Asian markets were mixed-to-positive Tuesday. Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.1% at the open, tracking US chip gains on Anthropic’s revenue surge. Japan lagged, with the Topix down 0.2% amid higher oil and JGB yield pressure. In Hong Kong on Monday, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 2%, led by Chinese tech.<strong> Geely Auto surged on strong Q2 profit and news that founder Li Shufu will step down as chairman to become honorary chairman.</strong> Xiaomi, up nearly 20% since end-June on SUV optimism, reports earnings today, with input costs in focus. In Tokyo, Dentsu Soken gained 3.9% after Oasis Management disclosed a 5% stake.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Tuesday </span></strong></span><span>- Home Depot, BHP, Xiaomi, Baidu</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Wednesday </span></strong></span><span>- Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Estee Lauder, Analog Devices, HKEX, Kuaishou Technology</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Thursday </span></strong></span><span>- Walmart, Deere & Co., Ross Stores, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Pop Mart</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Friday </span></strong></span><span>- BJ’s Wholesale Club</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> weakened for a third straight session on Monday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touching its lowest level since mid-May before closing down about 0.1%, as softer US data — including weak July retail sales and poorer consumer sentiment — sharply reduced the implied probability of a September Fed hike to roughly one</span>‑<span>in</span>‑<span>three from around 75% at end-July. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>CHF</span></strong></span><span> was the best-performing G10 currency in early Asian hours, gaining 0.62% vs. the dollar. <strong>EURCHF</strong> rose to a near one-year high (~0.9400), though technical analysts flagged a DeMark Sell Setup completing on the daily chart. </span></li> <li><strong><span>AUDUSD </span></strong><span>climbed 0.4% to 0.7109 intraday, supported by the softer dollar.</span></li> <li><strong><span>CAD</span></strong><span> briefly rallied after Canadian CPI for July came in at 3.0%, before giving back gains. </span></li> <li><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong><span> leaned bearish on the weekly outlook per technical analysis, though daily signals were described as conflicting. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCNH</span></strong></span><span> held steady even as China’s FX reserves climbed to a 12</span>‑<span>year high on strong Q2 inflows, highlighting ongoing official smoothing of yuan appreciation. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI </span></strong><span>rose 2.6% on Monday as Trump rejected extending the US-Iran agreement and fighting resumed in Lebanon. <strong>Brent </strong>settled near $91 a barrel, reigniting inflation concerns and weighing on equities and bonds. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iran is playing a long game in the conflict, raising right-tail risks for energy markets.</span></li> <li><strong><span>LME three-month copper</span></strong><span> rose as much as 1.7% on Monday, with the spot-to-three-month backwardation widening to as much as $545 per ton — the widest since the historic 2021 squeeze — as a surge in US-bound shipments in anticipation of potential import tariffs constrained global physical availability. BHP reported a 9% rise in net profit to $9.83 billion for the year to June, with full-year copper revenue overtaking iron ore for the first time. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Spot gold </span></strong><span>steadied near $4,420 an ounce in early Asian trading Tuesday, having added 1.5% over the previous two sessions. The metal has extended its advance over the past month to more than 11% — its biggest 22-session move since early February — supported by a weaker dollar, fading Fed hike bets, and Middle East haven demand. Hedge fund managers boosted net bullish gold bets to a 10-month high, according to positioning data.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US 30-year yield </strong>rose 4.8 basis points on Monday to 5.31% — its highest since June 2007 — driven by elevated oil prices, a heavy corporate issuance slate, and fiscal concerns over the national debt. The 10-year yield rose 3.1 basis points to 4.724% and the 1-year yield edged up 0.7 basis points to 3.982%. The 5s30s spread widened to 93.4 basis points from 89.6 basis points, extending the bear-steepening trend. Strategists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BofA all forecast continued curve steepening.</span></li> <li><span>Twelve companies sold a combined $9.1 billion of investment-grade bonds on Monday, putting US IG issuance on track for a third consecutive monthly record. AI-related hyperscaler borrowing is a key driver. High-yield markets extended Friday's selloff, with just one deal pricing — Gray Media at $750 million — as risk-off sentiment kept the primary market quiet.</span></li> <li><span>Monday's $92 billion 3-month bill auction cleared at 3.625% and the $79 billion 6-month auction at 3.78%, both stopping through the when-issued. Today the Treasury sells $95 billion in 6-week bills. Wednesday's $16 billion 20-year bond auction will be the next key test of long-end demand, with investors also watching the late-July FOMC minutes for rate path signals. Thursday brings $8 billion in 30-year TIPS.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold is back: Is the breakout trade finally here?</h1> <p>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Key points</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>Gold momentum is returning</span></strong><span> as Fed-hike fears fade, the US dollar softens and structural demand from central banks and fiscal/debasement concerns come back into focus.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USD 4,500–4,585 is the key breakout zone.</span></strong><span> Gold has reclaimed its 100-day moving average, but the 200-day MA near USD 4,507 and Fibonacci resistance around USD 4,574 stand in the way of a bigger breakout.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Silver is gold on steroids.</span></strong><span> It combines precious-metal demand with industrial exposure but needs to clear USD 67.70–72.10 to turn the recent rebound into a stronger momentum signal.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Why gold is back in focus</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Gold struggled through much of the first half because the macro environment was working against it. <strong>Higher US yields, a stronger dollar and renewed fears of Fed hikes</strong> made a non-yielding asset less attractive.</span></p> <p><span>That balance is now improving.</span></p> <p><span>Gold is finding support from several forces:</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Fed-hike expectations are fading</span></strong><span>, reducing pressure from real yields.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The US dollar has softened</span></strong><span>, lowering another major headwind.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Central-bank demand remains structural</span></strong><span> as reserve managers continue diversifying.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US fiscal concerns remain elevated</span></strong><span>, keeping the search for alternative stores of value alive.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>debasement trade is returning</strong> as investors question the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies amid high debt and persistent deficits.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ETF and momentum demand</span></strong><span> could return more forcefully if technical resistance breaks.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The important distinction is that the structural gold story never disappeared. Earlier this year, it was simply overwhelmed by yields and the dollar. Now those tactical headwinds are becoming less hostile.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Gold: USD 4,500 is where it gets interesting</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Gold is trading around <strong>USD 4,400+</strong>, having reclaimed its <strong>100-day moving average near USD 4,385</strong>. That is constructive, but the bigger test is immediately ahead.</span></p> <span >Source: Saxo</span> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong ><span><br /> Bullish breakout: USD 4,507–4,574</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The <strong>200-day moving average sits around USD 4,507</strong>, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near <strong>USD 4,574</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>A sustained break through this zone would be a much stronger confirmation that the recovery has legs and could attract fresh momentum and ETF buying. Above that, <strong>USD 4,769</strong> is the next major target, followed by roughly <strong>USD 4,965</strong>.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Support: USD 4,385–4,333</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The first support zone comes from the 100-day MA around <strong>USD 4,385</strong> and the 23.6% Fibonacci level around <strong>USD 4,333</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Holding this area would keep the recovery structure intact.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Bearish reversal: below USD 4,333</span></strong></h4> <p><span>A break back below USD 4,333 would weaken the momentum signal, with the <strong>50-day MA around USD 4,151</strong> the next level to watch. The major cycle low sits around <strong>USD 3,942</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>For traders, that makes the setup relatively clean: <strong>above USD 4,574, momentum strengthens; below USD 4,333, the recovery becomes more questionable.</strong></span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Silver: gold on steroids</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Silver offers many of the same drivers as gold, but with an additional industrial component.</span></p> <p><span>It benefits from:</span></p> <ul> <li><span>lower rate expectations and dollar weakness;</span></li> <li><span>precious-metals investment demand;</span></li> <li><span>industrial demand across electronics, electrification and solar;</span></li> <li><span>a structurally tighter supply backdrop.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>That gives silver more torque when precious metals rally — but also considerably more downside when the macro backdrop turns.</span></p> <p><span>Silver is currently around <strong>USD 66+</strong>, comfortably above its 50-day MA near USD 61.30, but it is now heading into an important resistance cluster.</span></p> <span >Source: Saxo</span> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong ><span><br /> First hurdle: USD 68</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The 38.2% Fibonacci level sits around <strong>USD 68</strong>, closely followed by the <strong>100-day MA near USD 68.66</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Clearing both would strengthen the recovery signal.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Bigger breakout: USD 71.70–72.10</span></strong></h4> <p><span>The next major resistance zone contains the <strong>200-day MA near USD 71.67</strong> and the 50% Fibonacci retracement around <strong>USD 72.05</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>A decisive break above USD 72 would be the more convincing signal that silver's momentum trade has returned, potentially opening <strong>USD 76.10</strong> and then <strong>USD 81.20</strong>.</span></p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Support: USD 62.90–61.30</span></strong></h4> <p><span>On the downside, USD 62.90 and the 50-day MA around USD 61.30 form the first meaningful support zone. Losing that would put the <strong>USD 54.75</strong> low back into focus.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong ><span>Positioning: gold confirms, silver amplifies</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The cleaner signal still comes from gold.</span></p> <p><span>If <strong>gold clears USD 4,507–4,574 while the dollar remains soft and Fed-hike expectations stay contained</strong>, that would strengthen the case for another precious-metals leg higher.</span></p> <p><span>Silver can then become the <strong>higher-beta expression</strong> of that view. A move through <strong>USD 68</strong> would be encouraging; a break above <strong>USD 72</strong> would be much more compelling.</span></p> <p><span>The key risk remains a return of the first-half playbook: <strong>strong US data, renewed Fed-hike fears, higher real yields and a stronger dollar</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>For now, momentum is improving. But these are still recoveries approaching resistance rather than fully confirmed breakouts — <strong>gold above USD 4,574 and silver above USD 72 would change that.</strong></span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>From groceries to lipstick: seven companies test the consumer</h1> <p>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Walmart, Target and TJX can show whether shoppers are cutting back</strong> or simply becoming more selective.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Home Depot and Klarna test appetite for larger purchases</strong> when confidence and borrowing costs still matter.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Carlsberg and Estée Lauder show whether small indulgences remain resilient</strong> across different markets.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, while consumer sentiment weakened again in early August. That sounds gloomy, but economy-wide data hides an important distinction. Households rarely stop spending everywhere at once. They change what they buy, where they buy it and how they pay.</span></p> <p><span>This week offers an unusually broad test. Home Depot and Klarna report on 18 August. Target, TJX, Carlsberg and Estée Lauder follow on 19 August, with Walmart on 20 August. Together, they cover everything from groceries and discounted clothing to renovations, credit, beer and beauty.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The basket matters more than the bill</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Walmart, Target and TJX provide the cleanest comparison. Walmart is heavily exposed to groceries and essentials. Target sells more discretionary goods such as clothing and homewares. TJX specialises in off-price retail, selling branded products at discounts.</span></p> <p><span>Strong Walmart and TJX results alongside softer Target sales would suggest consumers are still spending, but leaning harder towards value. If Target also improves, the signal becomes broader: households may be comfortable enough to move beyond necessities again.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the useful clues are traffic, product mix, promotions and guidance rather than one headline sales figure. Strong sales bought with heavy discounting tell a different story from customers arriving willingly and paying close to full price.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Big purchases need confidence</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Home Depot tests a more expensive part of the wallet. Home repairs cannot always wait, but kitchens, bathrooms and other large renovation projects often can. Its previous quarter showed only modest underlying sales growth, so larger projects remain the more revealing signal.</span></p> <p><span>Klarna adds the financing angle. The digital bank lets shoppers spread payments over time. It entered this quarter with rapid growth and relatively stable credit losses. Rising payment volumes with steady repayment behaviour would suggest healthy usage. Faster borrowing paired with worsening credit performance would be much less comforting.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Small luxuries can travel further</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Carlsberg and Estée Lauder broaden the test beyond US retail. Carlsberg’s first quarter showed growth in premium beer, alcohol-free drinks and soft drinks. Estée Lauder has been recovering in prestige beauty, including better momentum in mainland China.</span></p> <p><span>They test a familiar habit: people may postpone a sofa before abandoning every small pleasure. If premium drinks and beauty hold up while larger purchases soften, the consumer is not disappearing. The consumer is prioritising.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Risks: one week is not an economy</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Weather, promotions, calendar shifts and company execution can distort one quarter. July’s weak US retail-sales report was also affected by Amazon moving Prime Day into June. The better approach is to look for patterns across companies, especially whether value-seeking, delayed big purchases and stable credit quality appear together.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The consumer is not one person</strong></span></h3> <p><span>This week matters because it turns a vague debate about “the consumer” into something more useful. Walmart can test essentials, TJX the hunt for value, Target discretionary recovery and Home Depot bigger commitments. Klarna shows how much spending needs financing, while Carlsberg and Estée Lauder reveal whether small indulgences still travel.</span></p> <p><span>The message will probably be more nuanced than strong or weak. Households can feel cautious and still spend when something feels necessary, affordable or worth it. That is the receipt investors should read. The total matters, but what sits inside the basket tells the better story.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<em><br /> </em></em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields</h1> <p>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span data-start="113" data-end="141" ><strong>Fed hike concerns are easing</strong>: </span><span >Softer inflation, employment and consumer data are reducing the risk of another rate hike, strengthening the case that the Fed’s next meaningful move may ultimately be a cut.</span></li> <li data-section-id="cq7kd2" data-start="317" data-end="472"> <span data-start="319" data-end="352"><strong>Dollar weakness adds support</strong>:</span> The dollar is showing signs of rolling over after its recent strength, removing another important headwind for bullion.</li> <li data-section-id="67lt6k" data-start="473" data-end="664"> <span data-start="475" data-end="510"><strong>Investment demand is returning</strong>:</span> ETF inflows are picking up alongside continued central-bank demand, broadening the investor base after Western participation had previously been subdued.</li> <li data-section-id="67lt6k" data-start="473" data-end="664"><strong data-start="0" data-end="41">High bond yields remain the key risk:</strong> Long-end Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs amid fiscal and debt concerns, compounded by growing competition for capital from hyperscalers funding the AI infrastructure buildout.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p>Gold is holding near USD 4,400 after recently breaking higher from a week-long consolidation phase, during which support was found and eventually established just below USD 4,000. The rebound has been supported by a combination of fading Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, a softer dollar and renewed investment demand, while elevated long-end bond yields remain the main headwind.</p> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Easing rate expectations and softer dollar support the gold rebound</strong></h3> <p>The interest-rate backdrop has shifted noticeably in gold's favour. Recent softer US employment, inflation and consumer data have reduced the urgency for further monetary tightening. July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months, while consumer sentiment also weakened, prompting markets to reduce the probability of a September rate hike.</p> <p>Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to join our long-held view that the FOMC may struggle to raise rates further. Its chief economist Jan Hatzius described a September increase as "very unlikely" and argued that markets continue to price an excessively hawkish Fed path given the recent moderation in inflation, employment and consumer spending.</p> <p>The dollar is providing another tailwind. After strengthening sharply earlier in the year, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has begun to roll over, reinforcing the traditional relationship between a weaker dollar and higher gold prices. Importantly, this is occurring while expectations for further Fed tightening are being reduced, potentially removing two of the headwinds that contributed to gold's earlier correction.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Bond yields remain the key outlier: focus on fiscal debt and AI-driven issuance</strong></h3> <p>The odd one out remains the bond market. Long-dated US Treasury yields remain close to multi-year highs despite softer economic data and declining expectations for Fed tightening. This increasingly suggests that part of the rise in yields reflects a higher term and fiscal risk premium rather than simply expectations for stronger growth or tighter monetary policy. The US government's growing debt burden is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net federal interest costs now exceeding USD 1 trillion in 2026, rising further over the coming decade.</p> <p>This creates an unusual but potentially supportive environment for gold. If high long-end yields increasingly reflect concerns about fiscal sustainability rather than economic strength, the historically negative relationship between gold and Treasury yields may continue to weaken. In that scenario, rising yields can themselves become part of the argument for holding gold as a diversification and fiscal-risk hedge.</p> <p>In addition, the rapid expansion of debt issuance by AI hyperscalers is exerting additional upward pressure on US government bond yields. By flooding fixed-income markets with large volumes of high-quality, long-duration corporate paper, AI-related borrowing is competing directly with Treasuries for institutional capital and lifting the overall term premium.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investment demand is recovering</strong></h3> <p>Investment demand is also showing signs of returning. Global gold-backed ETFs attracted around USD 3 billion in July, adding 23 tonnes after two consecutive months of outflows, while early-August flows have remained supportive. Speculators in the COMEX futures market have meanwhile increased their net long to a January high, and an 11-month high if focusing only on hedge funds.</p> <p>Some of the recent demand undoubtedly reflects momentum buying from short-term focused traders following the technical breakout above USD 4,200, but the return of ETF investors is nevertheless important. It broadens a demand base that in recent years has relied heavily on central banks and Asian physical buyers. Central-bank demand remains particularly strong, with second-quarter purchases estimated at 289 tonnes, helping underpin gold even during periods when Western investors have been reluctant buyers.</p> <p>The dynamic is reminiscent of 2022–23, when aggressive rate hikes and rising bond yields failed to trigger the deep and prolonged correction many investors expected. Strong central-bank buying effectively created an additional source of demand that was less sensitive to real yields and the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Key risks to the outlook</strong></h3> <p>What could go wrong? The most obvious risk is another reversal in US monetary-policy expectations. A renewed acceleration in inflation, stronger employment data or a rebound in consumer activity could revive rate-hike expectations, lifting both real yields and the dollar. The combination of higher real yields and a stronger dollar remains arguably the most challenging macro backdrop for gold.</p> <p>Persistently elevated long-end yields are another concern, a development potentially made worse by the increased competition for funding from AI hyperscalers. While fiscal-risk-driven yields can support gold's diversification appeal, there is a limit: a renewed surge in real yields could eventually raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion sufficiently to trigger profit taking. In addition, part of the latest rally has been momentum-driven, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction if the technical breakout fails.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Technical picture and conclusion</strong></h3> <p>For now, however, the balance of drivers has improved. Gold has re-established support above USD 4,200 and is trading near USD 4,400, with the USD 4,500 area where the 200-day moving average represents the next major technical hurdle. A sustained break above this zone may in our opinion strengthen the recovery signal encouraging further ETF and momentum demand. Conversely, a failure followed by a move back below USD 4,200 would suggest that the market remains trapped in a broad consolidation rather than having embarked on a renewed bull-market leg.</p> <p>Overall, gold is increasingly finding support from a combination of fading rate-hike expectations, a softer dollar, persistent central-bank demand, returning ETF flows and growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability. The main question is whether these forces can continue to outweigh unusually elevated long-term bond yields. So far, the answer appears to be yes.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Key drivers for precious metals: rates, yields, dollar and investment flows - Source: Saxo & Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">One-year gold chart highlighting key technical levels - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Five-year gold chart showing the 2022-23 period when prices held steady despite surging funding costs - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>17 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-11-august-2026-17082026" data-id="54894E4C20444CE9967738E217885D29" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 11 August 2026</a><br /> 14 Aug 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-keep-pace-with-equities-amid-broadening-scarcity-themes-14082026" data-id="8F28E964D8B7461DBA51A58C5D5A8882" data-type="Article">Commodities keep pace with equities amid broadening scarcity themes</a><br /> 12 Aug 2026: <a 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data-id="C14F020688304602992456627B337C06" data-type="Article">Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace</a><br /> 9 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-slips-below-200-day-average-as-inflation-jobs-and-fed-risks-bite-09062026" data-id="F5E40862072D4B67939C2CE8EE10AB69" data-type="Article">Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite</a><br /> 8 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-2-june-2026-08062026" data-id="3DEB0D968569401BBFCE06B024A23293" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026</a><br /> 4 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-rally-faces-tariff-roulette-but-fundamentals-remain-tight-04062026" data-id="709882EC371D48F8997BBDC6857538CD" data-type="Article">Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>USA</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Platinum</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Commodity buying accelerates as dollar positioning steadies</h1> <p>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 11 August 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 11<span data-start="186" data-end="201"> August 2026</span>.</span></li> <li data-section-id="6c6w04" data-start="115" data-end="307"><strong data-start="117" data-end="164">Commodity buying extends into a fifth week:</strong> Hedge funds lifted their combined net long across 24 major commodity futures by 18% to 1.3 million contracts, up 173% in less than two months. </li> <li data-section-id="144diax" data-start="309" data-end="500"> <strong data-start="311" data-end="356">Energy attracts renewed bullish interest:</strong> Brent positioning jumped sharply as Middle East concerns drove crude prices higher, while natural gas bears continued to reduce short exposure. </li> <li data-section-id="182bad4" data-start="502" data-end="694"> <strong data-start="504" data-end="549">Gold and copper length reaches new highs:</strong> Gold’s net long climbed to an 11-month high, while copper length reached a 5½-year high. Silver buying stalled and platinum length fell sharply. </li> <li data-section-id="1odoekd" data-start="696" data-end="962"> <strong data-start="698" data-end="760">Sugar shorts capitulate while dollar positioning steadies:</strong> Heavy short covering flipped sugar to a net long for the first time in 14 months, while the overall IMM dollar long was little changed at USD 36.9 billion following the previous week’s sharp reduction. </li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Forex</strong></h3> <p> </p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Following the biggest one-week reduction in bullish dollar bets in six years, positioning shifts were relatively modest in the latest reporting week to 11 August. The greenback traded broadly unchanged against its major peers during the period, with the main exceptions being renewed yen weakness and Canadian dollar strength.</span></p> <p><span>Overall, the non-commercial dollar long against eight IMM currency futures was reduced by just 1% to USD 36.9 billion. Small net selling of the euro and Australian dollar was broadly offset by equally modest buying across the remaining six contracts. </span></p> <p><span>Net short positions against the dollar continue to be held across seven of the eight IMM currency futures, with the Mexican peso the sole exception. The largest is held in the yen at USD 12.5 billion, followed by the euro at USD 8.7 billion, while the Swiss franc and sterling shorts both stand near USD 5 billion.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 data-section-id="whjwy9" data-start="0" data-end="76">Commodities</h3> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Hedge funds extended their recent commodity buying spree into a fifth consecutive week, supported by a 4.7% jump in the Bloomberg Commodity Index amid broad strength across energy, precious metals and soft commodities. Overall, the combined net long across the 24 major commodity futures tracked rose by 18% to 1.3 million contracts, a 173% increase in less than two months. </span></p> <p><span>Energy attracted particularly strong buying as renewed Middle East concerns drove crude oil and refined products sharply higher. Brent jumped 12% on the week and WTI almost 10%, prompting a 76k-contract increase in the Brent net long to 241k. Natural gas also saw a sizeable reduction in bearish exposure, with the net short cut by 19k contracts to 70k.</span></p> <p><span>Precious metals were mixed from a positioning perspective despite strong price gains. Gold rallied almost 7%, with the net long rising 7% to an 11-month high of 142k contracts, while silver gained close to 8% despite a small reduction in speculative length. Platinum stood out on the downside, with the net long slumping 30% to just 7.6k contracts. Together with total platinum ETF holdings remaining near a 7½-year low, this highlights a metal that remains notably underowned as speculators continue to favour gold rather than broader precious-metals exposure. <br /> <br /> Meanwhile, despite trading broadly unchanged on the week, copper bulls boosted their net long by another 4% to 80.9k contracts, a fresh 5½-year high. Despite this, the long-to-short ratio currently stands at ‘only’ 6.4 longs for every short, well below levels seen during the December–January period when it exceeded 12. This suggests there may still be scope for additional short covering should prices resume their advance following the latest period of consolidation.</span></p> <p><span>Across agriculture, a second consecutive week of grain selling was more than offset by a dramatic shift in sugar positioning, together with fresh buying of coffee and cotton. Sugar jumped 11% and, importantly, the rally finally triggered a major positioning response, with funds buying a net 137k contracts and flipping their overall position to a net long for the first time in 14 months. The shift was overwhelmingly driven by short covering, which helped propel the front-month contract towards 17 cents per pound, a level that once again provided resistance. Continued buying of cotton lifted the net long to 72.9k contracts, a 28-month high.</span></p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p>Despite having gained around 25% year-to-date, wheat continues to be traded with a short bias by speculators, as has been the case more or less continuously since 2022. In the latest reporting week, the net short increased by one-third to 31.4k contracts, leaving wheat as the only major grain contract with a speculative net short. This comes despite growing supply concerns as Russia and Ukraine step up attacks on each other’s export infrastructure, potentially disrupting shipments from two countries that together account for close to one-third of global wheat exports.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Energy sector - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold, silver, platinum and copper - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Agriculture - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)</a> and the <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ice.com/report/122" target="_blank">ICE Exchange Europe</a> for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that this group tends to <span>anticipate</span>,<span> accelerate</span>, and <span>amplify</span> price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>GBP/USD: Sterling’s make-or-break week</h1> <p>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key points</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>GBP/USD is approaching the data around the 1.35 area</span></strong><span>, supported by resilient UK growth and expectations that the Bank of England still has another rate hike to deliver this year.</span></li> <li><strong><span>UK jobs data on Tuesday, 18 August, will tell us whether domestic inflation pressure is genuinely fading.</span></strong><span> Regular wage growth has already slowed to 3.4%, private-sector pay growth to 2.9%, while unemployment sits at 4.9%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wednesday's CPI is the bigger test.</span></strong><span> Bloomberg consensus expects headline inflation to rise to 2.9% from 2.6%, largely because of the higher household energy price cap, while services inflation is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%.</span></li> <li><span>That distinction matters: <strong>an energy-driven rise in headline inflation is less GBP-positive than renewed strength in services inflation and wages.</strong></span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Why GBP is at an interesting point</strong></h3> <p><span>Sterling has benefited from a better UK growth backdrop and a Bank of England that remains worried about inflation. The BoE held Bank Rate at <strong>3.75% in July in a 6–3 vote</strong>, while Chief Economist Huw Pill has since argued that stronger growth reinforces the case for higher rates. Markets currently price roughly another BoE hike this year.</span></p> <p><span>But the labour market is telling a softer story.</span></p> <p><span>Regular wage growth has slowed to <strong>3.4%</strong>, versus 5.9% in early 2025, while private-sector regular pay growth has eased to <strong>2.9%</strong>. Payroll employment has also been declining on a year-on-year basis and vacancies have fallen to 712,000.</span></p> <p><span>That makes next week's <strong>jobs–inflation combination</strong> important for GBP/USD.</span></p> <p><strong><span>UK jobs: Tuesday, 18 August, 2pm SGT</span></strong><span><br /> <strong>UK CPI: Wednesday, 19 August, 2pm SGT</strong></span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Scenario 1: Hot jobs + hot underlying inflation</strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Most bullish for GBP/USD</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Look for wage growth stabilising or reaccelerating, unemployment holding or falling, followed by CPI above 2.9% <strong>and—more importantly—services inflation above the expected 3.4%</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That would suggest domestic inflation pressure is not cooling as quickly as the BoE wants and could bring additional tightening back into the rates curve.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> A sustained break above <strong>1.35–1.36</strong> would strengthen the bullish setup, with <strong>1.36</strong> the key resistance zone to clear. Above that, GBP/USD could start opening a move towards <strong>1.37</strong>.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Risk:</span></strong><span> The dollar side still matters. Strong US data or renewed geopolitical risk could support USD even against a hawkish UK backdrop.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Scenario 2: Weak jobs + softer services inflation</strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Bearish GBP/USD</span></strong></h4> <p><span>This is the cleaner bearish combination.</span></p> <p><span>If unemployment rises further, payrolls weaken and wage growth falls below the current 3.4% pace, Tuesday would already weaken the argument for further BoE hikes.</span></p> <p><span>If Wednesday then brings headline CPI around or below 2.9% <strong>with services inflation falling below 3.4%</strong>, markets could increasingly conclude that the energy-driven inflation rise is temporary while domestic price pressures are fading.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> A clear break below <strong>1.3415</strong> (100DMA and 200DMA converge here) would weaken the recent recovery and bring <strong>1.33</strong> into focus.</span></p> <p><span>This would be the scenario where selling GBP/USD rallies may look cleaner than chasing the initial move lower.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Scenario 3: Weak jobs + hot headline CPI, but services cool</strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>The tricky one — and potentially the most interesting</span></strong></h4> <p><span>Headline CPI could easily rise because of the <strong>13% increase in Ofgem's household energy price cap</strong>. But if services inflation still falls towards 3.4% and Tuesday's labour numbers are weak, that is not necessarily a hawkish signal.</span></p> <p><span>It instead starts to resemble a <strong>stagflation-lite mix: higher externally driven inflation alongside a cooling domestic economy</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That could initially push UK yields and GBP higher on the CPI headline, but the move may prove difficult to sustain.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> Be cautious chasing GBP/USD higher purely because headline CPI prints 2.9–3.0%. If services inflation and wages are cooling, <strong>GBP strength towards 1.36 could be vulnerable to a fade</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Scenario 4: Strong jobs + softer CPI</strong></h3> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong><span>Likely range rather than breakout</span></strong></h4> <p><span>A resilient labour market would keep the BoE tightening story alive, but softer inflation—particularly services inflation—would remove some urgency.</span></p> <p><span>GBP/USD could remain caught around <strong>1.34–1.36</strong>, with the next move increasingly dictated by US rates and the dollar rather than UK data.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >What matters most</strong></h3> <p><span>For traders, I would rank the numbers:</span></p> <p><strong><span>1. Services CPI</span></strong><span> – strongest signal on persistent domestic inflation<br /> <strong>2. Wage growth, particularly private-sector pay</strong> – critical for the BoE's inflation outlook<br /> <strong>3. Employment/payrolls and unemployment</strong> – tells us whether labour-market slack is increasing<br /> <strong>4. Headline CPI</strong> – important, but potentially distorted by the energy-price-cap increase</span></p> <p><strong><span>The GBP bull case therefore needs more than a 2.9% headline CPI print.</span></strong><span> It needs evidence that domestic inflation is sticky enough to keep the BoE tightening story alive. If wages and services inflation continue to cool, an energy-led rise in headline inflation may instead be an opportunity to fade sterling strength.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 17 August, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US consumer sentiment falls. Trump warns of high fuel prices.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Nvidia disclosed $21b stake in SpaceX and $22b stake in Intel</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>NOK tops G10 FX, AUD second as softer USD tracks fading Fed tightening</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Copper near record at $14,160/ton on LME</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>2Y yield fell a third straight week, briefly below 4.10%</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span><strong ><span></span></strong></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The US-Iran ceasefire ends today, after Israel’s deadly strike in southern Lebanon</span></strong></span><span>, as new US sanctions on Iran loom and geopolitical uncertainty rises.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP grew 0.3% q/q, slowing from Q1 and missing expectations of 0.5%.</span></strong></span><span> This compares with a long-term average of 0.42% since 1980.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51 in early August from 55.2</span></strong></span><span>, below expectations, with broad-based declines and slightly higher year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.3%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US retail sales fell 0.6% m/m in July</span></strong></span><span>, missing expectations for a 0.1% rise and marking the first drop since October 2025, with core control group sales (used for GDP) down 0.4%, the most since early 2025.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Trump called Iran “very evil” at a rally Friday and warned Americans to expect sustained high fuel prices</span></strong></span><span>, saying the war’s cost was justified to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities ended last Friday with modest losses after soft consumer data, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.2% at 7,785.76, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,729.16, and the Dow Jones at 53,732.41. S&P 500 nonetheless notched a third straight week of gains — its longest winning streak since May — having touched 7,800 for the first time. VIX fell to its lowest level since December 29. S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth of 31% year-on-year is the best outside of recession recoveries since 1992. Financial stocks fell 0.1% on Friday, with JPMorgan reportedly debanked by Polymarket over regulatory concerns.<strong> Nvidia disclosed a $21b stake in SpaceX at end of Q2 and an Intel stake now worth $22b</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities ended last week slightly lower, with the Stoxx 600 slipping 0.4% on the week to close at 657.86, snapping a four-week winning streak but remaining just below record highs. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% on Friday to 10,750.11, with AstraZeneca the largest drag, down 2.1%, and Antofagasta falling 4.6%. The DAX rose 0.5% on Friday to 26,440.31, led by Rheinmetall, up 3.2%. Adyen jumped 16% on Thursday after raising its revenue outlook. European equity funds attracted $1.2 billion in inflows last week, the largest in six months.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets are opening this Monday morning with index levels as follows: Hang Seng at 25,116.85, Nikkei 225 at 68,713.80, Kospi at 6,977.94, and STI at 5,743.59. The Kospi has been a standout performer, rallying approximately 23% from its July 30 low, driven by a revival in the global AI trade with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each jumping more than 5% at various points last week.<strong> Singapore's STI has surged 23% YTD, supported by robust tech export growth and a "Goldilocks" economic backdrop, per JPMorgan.</strong> In Japan, MS&AD Insurance rose 5% in early trading after reporting Q1 net income of ¥328.62 billion versus ¥246.37 billion a year earlier. The Topix is little changed. The Nikkei remains supported by AI-related tailwinds, with Japanese stocks seen as a key beneficiary of the next leg of the AI trade.</span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong ><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Tuesday </span></strong></span><span>- Home Depot, BHP, Xiaomi, Baidu</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Wednesday </span></strong></span><span>- Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Estee Lauder, Analog Devices, HKEX, Kuaishou Technology</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Thursday </span></strong></span><span>- Walmart, Deere & Co., Ross Stores, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Pop Mart</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Friday </span></strong></span><span>- BJ’s Wholesale Club</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> eased modestly overnight, slipping against the<strong> EUR</strong>, <strong>GBP</strong>, <strong>AUD</strong>, and the <strong>JPY</strong>, while holding steady versus the Chinese yuan. The move reflected a mild, broad-based <strong>USD </strong>softening rather than a strong directional shift. </span></li> <li><span>In G10, the focus remained on the <strong>JPY</strong>, where rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike have yet to translate into a sustained <strong>USDJPY</strong> break lower, with spot still trading around 159 and capped by its 100-day moving average and resistance near 161. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUD </span></strong></span><span>outperformed slightly, edging toward 0.71 as markets further priced out additional Fed hikes, while<strong> GBP </strong>also firmed despite increasing concerns that UK growth will slow in the second half of 2026 after a robust start to the year. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>NOK</span></strong></span><span> is the top G10 performer in 2026, up 6.81% versus the dollar at 9.44 against USD, while <strong>AUDUSD </strong>at 0.7092 is up 6.16% year-to-date and 0.11% on the day, making the <strong>AUD</strong> the second-strongest G10 currency, supported by commodity strength and risk-on sentiment.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCNH</span></strong></span><span> was unchanged on the day, though softer-than-expected July M2 money supply growth in China (7.7% YoY vs 7.9% expected) may weigh on sentiment toward the yuan going forward.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> edged up as much as 0.5% to nearly $89 a barrel in early Asian trading, with WTI at $82.22 (down 0.22%), as geopolitical uncertainty around the expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon keep supply risk elevated. Oil is increasingly driving long-end bond yields, with the Brent-30-year yield correlation near this year's previous peaks.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Copper</span></strong><span> remains near record territory at $14,160 per ton on the LME, with the August-to-September spread hitting its widest backwardation since 2021 at $370, prompting the LME to introduce emergency measures. Supply concerns persist following reports of a Democratic Republic of Congo export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates, alongside stockpiling ahead of potential US tariffs on refined imports.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold</span></strong><span> trades at $4,377.54 per ounce, up 0.03% on the day, consolidating near recent highs. Analysts note short-term gamma risk is building in the options market, and gold's failure to break meaningfully higher despite softer oil suggests some near-term exhaustion.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasury yields</span></strong><span> are modestly lower in early Asian trading: the 2-year at 4.15% (-1.8 bps), the 10-year at 4.68% (-1.0 bp), and the 30-year at 5.26% (-0.6 bps). The 2-year yield fell for a third straight week last week, briefly dipping below 4.10% — its lowest since June 30 — before rebounding on a UK gilt selloff.</span></li> <li><span>The US yield curve has steepened materially, with the 2s10s spread widening to around 52 bps last week — the widest since May 21 and near the 200-day moving average. The 5s30s spread also widened. BofA now recommends 5-year Treasuries and a steeper curve following softer employment and inflation data.</span></li> <li><span>A $16 billion 20-year auction on Wednesday is expected to price around 5.27%, which would be the highest yield for that tenor since its 2020 reintroduction. Foreign central banks are reportedly reducing Treasury holdings in favour of gold, adding to structural demand concerns.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodities keep pace with equities amid broadening scarcity themes</h1> <p>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><strong data-start="23" data-end="63" >Commodities keep pace with equities:</strong><span > The BCOM Total Return Index has gained 26% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 and broadly matching the Nasdaq despite the intense focus on AI-driven equity gains.</span></li> <li data-section-id="1s8re1c" data-start="233" data-end="452"> <strong data-start="235" data-end="271">Precious metals regain momentum:</strong> Gold, silver and platinum lead August gains as softer US data, a less hawkish Fed backdrop, dollar weakness and renewed ETF demand add to continued central bank and Chinese buying. </li> <li data-section-id="14pemhz" data-start="454" data-end="716"> <strong data-start="456" data-end="510">Physical scarcity supports metals and agriculture:</strong> Copper supply constraints, US inventory hoarding and resource nationalism are combining with robust Chinese demand, while El Niño risks, extreme heat and Black Sea disruptions support agricultural markets. </li> <li data-section-id="waaj24" data-start="718" data-end="970"> <strong data-start="720" data-end="773">Energy returns extend beyond headline oil prices:</strong> Middle East and Russian supply disruptions, depleted inventories and tight refined-product markets maintain steep backwardation, boosting total returns even as prompt crude prices remain stuck at levels that does not signal a crisis.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>Commodities have continued this month to build on the strong and broad gains the sector delivered in July, when the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM TR) posted a 7.5% gain. Together with a further 2.4% rise so far this month, lifting its year-to-date return to 26%, the index has now clawed back the bulk of the near 12% loss incurred during April and May. That puts commodities ahead of the S&P 500 at around 21% and on par with the technology-heavy Nasdaq, despite the intense investor focus on artificial intelligence and technology stocks. Gains have been supported by a combination of improving macro conditions and increasingly visible supply constraints across several key markets.</span></p> <p><span>Perhaps more importantly, the latest advance has been broad-based. All major commodity sectors are contributing positively, led by precious metals, agriculture and industrial metals. Energy has delivered a more modest gain, although steep backwardation means total returns continue to exceed what movements in headline crude oil prices alone would suggest.</span></p> <p><span>The common thread is scarcity, albeit in different forms. Precious metals are benefiting from continued central bank and recently also renewed investor demand amid fiscal concerns and a less hostile monetary backdrop. Industrial metals are increasingly influenced by constrained mine supply, strategic stockpiling and resource nationalism. Agriculture faces growing weather and geopolitical risks, while energy markets remain exposed to Middle East and Russian supply disruptions and depleted inventories.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Month to date performances using BCOM Total Return data - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Precious metals return to life</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Precious metals lead the August advance with an 8.2% gain, although the sector remains marginally lower on the year having spent the past few months consolidating following the slump that followed the January surge to record highs. Despite some end of week profit taking emerging following the recent strong run, August has so far seen silver jump 12%, gold 7% and platinum 4.6%.</span></p> <p><span>The recovery has been supported by a combination of macro and fundamental developments. The July Federal Reserve meeting was less hawkish than markets had feared, particularly given that a meaningful probability of another rate increase had been priced beforehand. That was followed by the US-Japan intervention episode to support the yen, involving the US Treasury alongside Japan's Ministry of Finance. The resulting strengthening of the yen added pressure to the dollar, while subsequent weakness in US employment indicators and softer-than-expected inflation data provided another supportive impulse.</span></p> <p><span>Importantly, gold has strengthened despite US real yields remaining historically elevated. This suggests the rally is not simply another rates-driven move. Fiscal and debt concerns, geopolitical uncertainty and continued reserve diversification remain important sources of demand.</span></p> <p><span>Central banks continue to provide an important structural floor after the World Gold Council reported a fivefold increase in official-sector buying during the second quarter compared with the first. Robust Chinese physical demand has provided additional support, much as Asian and central bank buying did during 2022–23, when aggressive Western monetary tightening, and an exodus from bullion-backed ETF's failed to trigger the deep correction many investors had expected.</span></p> <p><span>The latest move has also been accompanied by signs that Western investment demand is returning, including renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs. After a rapid rally, some profit-taking was inevitable, particularly with the Federal Reserve not yet completely out of the tightening conversation. For now, we view the latest weakness as position trimming rather than evidence that the recovery has run its course. From a technical perspective, the key levels to watch in our opinion are USD 4,200, the recent top of the range and now support, while the upside is capped around USD 4,500, where the important 200-day moving average is currently located.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">From a technical perspective, gold is currently stuck between USD 4,200 and USD 4,500 - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Copper and the global scramble for metal</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Industrial metals are up 1.4% this month, with copper gaining around 2%. Copper briefly reached a record USD 6.8665 per pound last week in New York before retracing towards USD 6.65, but beneath the volatility a potentially powerful structural story continues to develop.</span></p> <p><span>The market increasingly resembles a struggle over where available copper is located and who controls it.</span></p> <p><span>Mine supply continues to disappoint. Producers in Chile and Peru are struggling to deliver meaningful production growth, while operational disruptions and declining ore grades remain persistent challenges. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, restrictions on exports of copper and cobalt concentrates highlight another developing theme: resource-rich countries increasingly want to retain more processing and economic value domestically.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, US tariff policy has created an extraordinary geographical distortion. The prospect of import tariffs encouraged traders to move large volumes of copper into US warehouses, effectively pulling available metal away from other consuming regions. US inventories have consequently surged to record levels, now accounting for an unprecedented 666,000 tons or 70% of visible stocks monitored by the three major futures exchanges in New York, London and Shanghai.</span></p> <p><span>This does not mean the world has suddenly run out of copper. It does, however, mean that an increasing proportion of visible inventories may be sitting in the wrong place, in this case the U.S. which overall accounts for around 6% of total global demand. In a market where mine-supply growth is already struggling to keep pace with demand, geographical fragmentation increases the risk of regional shortages and price dislocations.</span></p> <p><span>China adds another important dimension. The world's second-largest economy remains distinctly two-speed. Property and construction continue to struggle, traditionally a major headwind for industrial metals. However, high-tech manufacturing, electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investment, robotics and AI-related infrastructure remain areas of strong growth, and many are highly metal intensive.</span></p> <p><span>The result is that weak Chinese property activity no longer automatically translates into weak copper demand. Combined with electrification demand elsewhere, strategic stockpiling and constrained mine supply, the ingredients for continued tightness remain firmly in place.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Exchange monitored stockpiles continue to be pushed into the US, thereby tightening the rest of the world - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Agriculture faces weather and war risks</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Agriculture has gained 3.2% this month and around 14.5% year-to-date, with the main drivers predominantly being supply related to weather and war. Recent gains have been driven mainly by sugar, cocoa, wheat and corn, while the year-to-date advance has been supported by the soybean complex amid the demand-supportive link between biofuels and surging fuel prices. In the months ahead, the risk of adverse and volatile weather remains elevated amid a strengthening El Niño, which tends to bring drought to parts of Asia and Australia while increasing rainfall and flood risks in South America, compounding regional supply shocks, volatility and geopolitical disruption.</span></p> <p><span>Sugar has been the standout performer, rising almost 15% this month. A developing El Niño is raising concerns about production prospects in several important growing regions, particularly India and Thailand. At the same time, European sugar production is expected to fall towards a decade low following reduced beet acreage and adverse weather.</span></p> <p><span>Brazil remains the key swing producer, and the recent price recovery has altered the relative economics between producing sugar and ethanol. Higher sugar prices encourage mills to direct more cane towards sugar production, providing a potential supply response, but this will take time and leaves the market vulnerable to further weather-related setbacks elsewhere.</span></p> <p><span>Cocoa has also rebounded as concerns return over West African production. Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire remain exposed to adverse weather and crop disease following several challenging seasons, while a strong El Niño could create additional stress.</span></p> <p><span>Wheat has meanwhile regained a geopolitical premium following renewed attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure. Ukrainian attacks on Russian grain facilities and Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports have highlighted the vulnerability of one of the world's most important agricultural export corridors. With both countries major wheat suppliers, repeated disruption could tighten physical availability even if global inventories on paper remain adequate.</span></p> <p><span>Corn has received support from the latest USDA estimates. The bullish surprise came not from acreage, which was raised, but from yield. USDA lowered its US yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183 previously. Combined with stronger exports and reduced beginning stocks, the adjustment tightened the projected balance sheet.</span></p> <p><span>The broader agricultural story is therefore becoming increasingly weather-sensitive. A very hot Northern Hemisphere summer, rising El Niño risks and continued disruption around the Black Sea may in our opinion provide additional support during the coming months, although ample supplies in markets such as rice, soybeans and certain coarse grains like barley and sorghum remain an important counterweight to further upside.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Rising El Nino risk points to increased weather and crop price volatility - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Energy: the curve tells a different story</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Energy is the weakest-performing commodity sector this month but is still positive on a total-return basis, and overall and by far the biggest contributor to the overall year-to-date gain. WTI crude has fallen around 2.7%, while Brent has managed a modest gain. However, focusing solely on prompt prices understates the returns being generated by a market characterised by steep backwardation.</span></p> <p><span>The Middle East crisis remains the dominant source of volatility. Crude continues to gyrate on headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with traders caught between expectations that an eventual agreement could release additional Gulf barrels and the reality that six months of disruption have left global inventories depleted.</span></p> <p><span>Strategic reserves have been tapped, Gulf production remains well below potential, and refined-product markets, particularly diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, remain exceptionally tight. Russian refinery disruptions have added another layer of stress to a market already missing significant Middle Eastern refining capacity.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, weak Chinese crude imports and expectations that Hormuz will eventually reopen continue to limit the willingness of investors to chase outright crude prices higher. The result is an unusual combination: relatively restrained headline prices alongside a futures curve signalling considerable near-term scarcity.</span></p> <p><span>In many ways, the oil curve continues to price scarcity today and normalisation tomorrow. For investors exposed through total-return commodity indices, that distinction matters because positive roll yield from backwardation can deliver returns well beyond what the movement in the front-month futures contract suggests.</span><span ></span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Different forms of scarcity</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The broader commodity story is becoming less dependent on a single macro catalyst. Precious metals are responding to renewed investment demand, fiscal concerns and a less hostile monetary environment. Industrial metals are being supported by constrained mine supply, strategic stockpiling and a growing tendency among producing nations to protect critical resources. Agriculture faces a combination of El Niño, extreme heat and renewed Black Sea disruption, while energy remains exposed to depleted inventories and geopolitical uncertainty.</span></p> <p><span>There are obvious caveats. El Niño-related crop losses are still a risk rather than a certainty. Record copper prices will encourage substitution, recycling and eventually additional production. An agreement that allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen could trigger another sharp oil correction, while still-elevated interest rates remain a potential challenge for precious metals.</span></p> <p><span>Nevertheless, the breadth of the current advance is notable. With all major sectors contributing positively this month, commodities are no longer relying on one market or one narrative to generate returns.</span></p> <p><span>After gaining 26% this year, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index has quietly outperformed the S&P 500 and kept pace with Nasdaq despite the extraordinary attention surrounding the AI-driven equity rally. The forces supporting commodities are very different, but increasingly interconnected: monetary and fiscal uncertainty, physical supply constraints, strategic stockpiling, weather disruption and geopolitical fragmentation.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>12 August 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/sugar-breaks-higher-as-tightening-supply-catches-shorts-off-guard-12082026" data-id="3670C401D08E45FFB557EE330BBFB3F7" data-type="Article">Sugar breaks higher as tightening supply catches shorts off guard</a><br /> 12 August 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-gyrates-on-hormuz-headlines-as-depleted-inventories-and-tight-distillates-raise-the-stakes-12082026" data-id="4545F0FF21DB4C9CAC5160442D7C5714" data-type="Article">Oil gyrates on Hormuz headlines as depleted inventories and tight distillates raise the 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data-id="C1863EDDE5A14243AA076F39AAF1197F" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 7 July 2026</a><br /> 10 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-stabilise-supported-by-fuel-and-weather-risks-10072026" data-id="4ED5076463844467937EDB4EC15B051E" data-type="Article">Commodities stabilise supported by fuel and weather risks</a><br /> 8 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-jumps-as-fragile-iran-ceasefire-unravels-08072026" data-id="8340F8C40CF24790A81AFB5C27E9FC36" data-type="Article">Oil jumps as fragile Iran ceasefire unravels</a><br /> 7 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-update-elevated-dollar-and-rate-bets-build-as-commodity-selling-eases-07072026" data-id="174ACA802F804A26BEA9146FA3307EA3" data-type="Article">COT update Elevated dollar and rate bets build as commodity selling eases</a><br /> 6 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/from-liquidation-to-consolidation-precious-metals-seek-a-floor-06072026" data-id="FA244884F220435AA0B77DA93C93F576" data-type="Article">From liquidation to consolidation precious metals seek a floor</a><br /> 3 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-steady-as-lower-inflation-risks-and-softer-jobs-data-calm-markets-03072026" data-id="AFB9B2C449E14D28BEE612FF3DF4CFD5" data-type="Article">Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets</a><br /> 2 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/soft-commodities-rebound-as-weather-risks-and-supply-fears-return-02072026" data-id="79C0142B8A924B3F9F4AACA918B4DBC3" data-type="Article">Soft commodities rebound as weather risks and supply fears return</a><br /> 1 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/tour-de-france-the-7-kg-commodity-basket-behind-the-worlds-fastest-bikes-01072026" data-id="F58220087AE942968C7B95AE3C901CD7" data-type="Article">Tour de France the 7 kg commodity basket behind the worlds fastest bikes</a><br /> 30 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-await-usda-reality-check-after-fund-driven-round-trip-30062026" data-id="E0087906E74F40B8A556AE23C9DB6457" data-type="Article">Grains await USDA reality check after fund-driven round trip</a><br /> 29 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-crowded-positioning-raises-the-risk-of-sharp-countertrend-moves-29062026" data-id="EF501A5FCDE9454AA1D067808DD20653" data-type="Article">COT Crowded positioning raises the risk of sharp countertrend moves</a><br /> 26 June 2026: <a 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data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a 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data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Sugar</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - New S&P 500 all-time high - 14 August 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:15:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Producer prices undershot and handed the disinflation story a second leg into retail sales</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: Wall Street set records on chip strength while Applied Materials was faded after hours</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Index protection stayed cheap but refused to cheapen further as stocks pushed to records</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto idled beneath the equity rally while Goldman bought into crypto income funds</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil and metals ease as profit-taking follows recent gains</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Yields eased across the curve on soft producer prices and an orderly bond auction</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Extremely rangebound market in G3 majors as markets look around for a catalyst.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US producer prices were flat in July against consensus for a 0.2% monthly rise, with the core measure up 0.2% against 0.3% expected</strong> and final-demand prices up 4.7% year on year from 5.5% in June. Landing a day after the in-line CPI, the report consolidated expectations of a Federal Reserve hold at next month's meeting and extended the relief that has carried equities through the week.</li> <li><strong>US Initial weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000</strong> in the week to 8 August, above the 204,000 consensus, a further sign of gradual cooling in the labour market.</li> <li><strong>UK GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, matching expectations after 0.6% in Q1</strong>. June GDP rose 0.3% m/m, beating flat forecasts. Meanwhile, <strong>UK manufacturing output fell 0.5% m/m in June 2026, worse than May’s revised -0.2% and below expectations.</strong> Annual growth slowed to 0.5% from a revised 2.0%, missing the 1.2% forecast.</li> <li>The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but the energy premium that has kept headline inflation risk alive has started to deflate, with crude giving back part of its gains as the week closes without fresh escalation.</li> <li><strong>Today's calendar centres on US consumption.</strong> July retail sales land at 1230 GMT, with consensus near 0.2% to 0.3% on the month and a 0.2% rise excluding autos, followed by the <strong>preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey at 1400 GMT</strong>. Next week brings the FOMC minutes, and the <strong>Jackson Hole symposium follows on 27 to 29 August</strong> under a financial-innovation theme.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0900 – Eurozone 2Q GDP</li> <li>1230 – US July Retail Sales</li> <li>1400 – US Preliminary August University of Michigan Sentiment</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p><strong>Friday</strong>: Aviva, ASICS</p> <p>Earnings highlights for next week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Home Depot, BHP Group, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna, Carlsberg</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s Companies, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Walmart, Deere & Co, AIA Group, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> US equities set records after the soft producer-price data. The <strong>S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 7,798.99, a record close</strong>, and traded above 7,800 for the first time with an intraday high of 7,816.70. The <strong>Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% to 30,084.50</strong> and the Russell 2000 touched a record above 3,060 during the session, while the Dow added 0.13%, held back by Cisco extending its post-earnings decline. Leadership was tech-heavy: <strong>Tesla rose 3.80% and Meta 2.78%</strong>, software was strong with the IGV software ETF up 3.1%, and the equal-weight S&P added only 0.16%, so the advance was again concentrated. Amazon lagged the megacaps, down 0.8%. After the close, <strong>Applied Materials fell around 5%</strong> despite its beat and strong guidance.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities ended little changed before Wall Street's late push to records. The <strong>Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.04% to 659.25</strong>, stabilising after Wednesday snapped its seven-day winning streak, with the <strong>DAX down 0.12% at 26,299.74</strong> and the CAC 40 off 0.28% at 8,650.56. The <strong>AEX stood out with a 0.66% gain</strong> and the SMI added 0.18%, while the FTSE 100 was flat near 10,800. The benign US inflation data supported sentiment without producing a broad advance.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> The Asian chip rally is extending into a third session. <strong>Korea's Kospi rose about 2.7% this morning and briefly traded above 7,000 for the first time</strong>, again led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, after Thursday's 3.56% advance to 6,813.34. <strong>Japan's Nikkei gained around 1.4% to about 69,250</strong>, with Kioxia and SoftBank among the leaders. China lagged once more, the <strong>Hang Seng down 0.17% and the CSI 300 down 0.57%</strong> at the 06:00 CET snapshot, and US index futures were near flat after the record close.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Soft producer prices extended the disinflation relief and the S&P 500 closed at a record, yet the vol floor held: <strong>VIX edged up 0.55% to 14.63</strong> while <strong>VIX1D sits at 9.49</strong> and VIX9D at 11.37, so the surface appears to be pricing today's retail sales as a modest event.</li> <li>The cash curve remains in firm contango, 14.63 spot against 18.61 at three months, with the front future at 18.05. <strong>SKEW eased to 134.37</strong> and MOVE fell 4.0% to 69.23. SPX options imply <strong>0.41% for today's expiry</strong> and 1.12% into next Friday.</li> <li>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Crypto idled beneath the equity records, with spot majors barely changed overnight and <strong>DVOL easing to 34.80</strong>. The listed proxies drifted lower on the session: <strong>Coinbase slipped about 1%</strong>, Strategy 1.3% and most miners eased, a pause after the neocloud-driven miner strength earlier in the week.</li> <li><strong>Goldman Sachs agreed to buy ETF manager NEOS Investments for up to USD 2.25 billion</strong>, folding its bitcoin and ether income funds into the bank's asset-management arm, a further institutional step into crypto-linked income products.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The BCOM TR Index trades up 1.7% this month</strong>, taking its year-to-date gain to 25%, with advances seen across all sectors except energy, where WTI crude and natural gas are the only major contracts trading lower. Precious metals continue to lead, with a 7.4% monthly gain despite some end-of-week profit-taking, bringing the sector’s YTD performance back to flat. Agriculture follows with a 2.8% gain, led by sugar, cocoa and wheat, while industrial metals are up around 1% amid broad but relatively modest gains.</li> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Crude has given back part of its geopolitical risk premium. Brent eased around 2% to near USD 87 after six consecutive gains, while WTI traded near USD 81 in early Friday dealing. The absence of fresh escalation around the still-closed Strait of Hormuz, combined with the previous week’s very large US inventory build, has encouraged some profit-taking. In our view, the pullback looks more like position-trimming than a fundamental change in the supply outlook, particularly while the Strait remains almost closed, and regional production and export capacity remain constrained.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Gold trades lower for a second day as profit-taking sets in following a strong run of gains, with tame US inflation data and reduced expectations for further rate hikes largely priced in for now. Silver has slipped back below USD 64 after almost reaching USD 67 earlier in the week. Despite the pullback, the underlying backdrop remains supportive in our opinion, with lower rate expectations, renewed investor demand and continued official-sector buying helping underpin the sector.</li> <li><strong>Industrial metals:</strong> Copper futures also traded lower on profit-taking following a week that delivered further supportive supply-side developments. Producers continue to struggle to maintain output levels, while robust demand and pre-tariff stockpiling in the US have drawn metal towards American warehouses, tightening the pool of readily available supply elsewhere. These dynamics continue to support an underlying tightening narrative despite the latest bout of price consolidation.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rallied Thursday after the soft PPI data (see above) and slight rise in the weekly initial jobless claims.</strong> The front end of the US Treasury yield curve came in sharply lower, down about five basis points and eyeing the lows for the last four weeks near 4.15%. At the longer end of the curve, the 10-year yield also fell about five basis points to 4.65%, but still traded within the recent range. A 30-year T-bond auction saw steady demand with yields near 20-year highs.</li> <li><strong>European government bonds rallied in sympathy with US Treasury counterparts Thursday</strong>, with the strongest move lower in yields in the five-year BOBL in Germany, where the benchmark fell more than five basis points at one point intraday to below 2.85% before rebounding back toward 2.87%. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield also dropped back, trading 3.13% late Thursday after shying away from the 3.20%+ yield area earlier this week for the third time in recent weeks and for a fourth time since mid-May.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Currency volatility in the majors is extremely constrained as traders lack conviction.</strong> This could be a tactical reluctance to send <strong>USDJPY</strong> toward 160.00 in fear of official intervention from Japan, or as the market awaits more conviction on the direction of Fed policy or rates volatility on incoming macro data. In any case, <strong>EURUSD</strong> is lost in one of its tightest two-week ranges in a long time between 1.1500 and 1.1580.</li> <li><strong>EURCHF</strong> pulled to a new cycle high above 0.9390 Thursday, another new high for 2026, with 16-month highs just north of 0.9450 the next major chart point above 0.9400.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 14 August, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 01:18:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Headline and Core PPI cools. Initial jobless claims at 209k vs 202k expected.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Sandisk +15% after issuing bullish outlook; S&P 500 trades to new highs</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>USD softer on cooler inflation; JPY steady near 160; NZD outperforms peers</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Gold futures -1.03%, largest since Jul 31; snaps 4-day run</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>30-year auction at highest yield since 2001</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US July PPI reported at 0% m/m (vs +0.2% est.) and up 4.7% y/y (vs 4.9% est.). Core PPI rose 0.2% m/m (vs 0.3% est.) and 4.2% y/y (vs 4.1% est.).</span></strong></span><span> Following Wednesday’s soft CPI, the data have cut the implied probability of a September Fed hike to under 40%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US initial jobless claims for the week ended 8 August rose 9,000 to 209,000</span></strong></span><span> (vs 202,000 est.), while continuing claims fell 22,000 to 1.777 million.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>UK GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, matching expectations after 0.6% in Q1</span></strong></span><span>. June GDP rose 0.3% m/m, beating flat forecasts.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Swiss producer and import prices fell 2.1% y/y in July 2026</span></strong></span><span>, unchanged from June and extending a three-year deflation streak. Producer prices were down 2.3% and import prices 1.5%. Month-on-month, overall prices slipped 0.1%, a third straight decline.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>UK manufacturing output fell 0.5% m/m in June 2026, worse than May’s revised -0.2% and below expectations.</span></strong></span><span> Annual growth slowed to 0.5% from a revised 2.0%, missing the 1.2% forecast.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Thursday to close at a fresh all-time high of 7,798.99, extending its August advance. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% to its highest level since end-June, driven by renewed strength in technology and hyperscaler-linked names. <strong>Sandisk jumped 15% after giving a bullish outlook at an analyst meeting in New York, </strong>with its CEO expecting revenue to grow mid to high teens through 2030, with gross margins to sustain at 80%. <strong>Netflix gained 5% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square revealed a 3.15m share stake.</strong> <strong>In after-hours, Reddit surged 10% </strong>on announcement of its inclusion in the S&P 500 effective 18 August. <strong>Applied Materials fell 5% despite reporting Q4 revenue of $9.12b that beat estimates </strong>and issued a strong forecast.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities were mixed on Thursday amid thin summer trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.18% to 6,545.47, just 0.09% below its all-time high set on 11 August. The DAX slipped 0.1% to 26,299.74 and the CAC 40 fell 0.28% to 8,650.56, its third consecutive down day. The FTSE 100 fell 0.6% to 10,772.67, dragged by miners and ex-dividend heavyweights, with Antofagasta sliding 6.7% after cutting copper production guidance. The standout mover was Adyen, which surged 16% after raising its revenue outlook.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets are set for a strong open on Friday, building on Wall Street's record close. The Kospi opened up 2.7% to 6,995.67, boosted by a surge in memory and chip names following Sandisk's strong investor day targets. Japan's Topix is on track to extend its winning streak to an eighth consecutive session, with futures pointing higher.<strong> Lenovo was the standout in Hong Kong on Thursday, surging as much as 22% to a record after Q1 revenue jumped 43% year-on-year,</strong> well ahead of estimates, lifting peers including Dell and HP. CK Hutchison reported 1H net income of HK$26.8 billion versus HK$852 million a year ago, driven by asset disposal gains. <strong>SMIC posted Q2 revenue of $3.01 billion (+36% y/y) with net income significantly beating estimates. JD.com ADR fell 7% after Q2 net revenue of RMB346.4 billion beat consensus but was the first quarterly decline since listing.</strong> The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.8% on Thursday, with Chinese drone stocks facing potential pressure from new US tariffs. STI data was not available at time of writing.</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Friday: </span>Kweichow Moutai</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> is modestly softer versus G10 peers, with <strong>EUR</strong>, <strong>GBP </strong>and <strong>AUD</strong> slightly higher and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index broadly flat as moderating US inflation reinforces expectations the Fed will keep rates on hold into September. <strong>NZD</strong> has outperformed a 14</span>‑<span>currency basket.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY </span></strong></span><span>is again pressing toward 160 despite a recent historic joint US</span>‑<span>Japan intervention, as carry traders rebuild yen shorts, though reports that PM Takaichi’s government supports a faster BOJ hiking path (potentially Sep–Oct) offer some support to the yen. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCNY</span></strong></span><span> and<strong> USDCNH</strong> are both flat for a third consecutive session. One-month implied volatility on USDCNH has fallen for the third time this week to 1.67%. The PBOC set Thursday's fixing at 6.7888, slightly weaker than Wednesday's 6.7882.</span></li> <li><span>In options, hedge funds are buying short</span>‑<span>term<strong> AUDNZD</strong> call spreads after softer NZ 2</span>‑<span>year inflation expectations BNY says cross</span>‑<span>border investors are re</span>‑<span>upping FX hedges on US assets, suggesting a “dollar de</span>‑<span>hedging peak.” </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI </span></strong><span>settled at $81.25 a barrel, down 2.4% on the session, snapping a six-session winning streak. Brent settled at $87.07, down 2.15%. Profit-taking emerged as the Hormuz deal remains elusive. Late Thursday, Iran attacked two ADNOC vessels transiting the strait, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in place. WTI traded near $81 in early Asian hours Friday.</span></li> <li><span>Comex front-month <strong>gold </strong>settled at $4,363.60 an ounce, down 1.03% — its largest single-day decline since July 31 — snapping a four-session winning streak. Spot gold fell as much as 1.5% to $4,343.91 intraday. Easing inflation data bolstered expectations the Fed will hold rates in September, reducing the inflation-hedge premium. Gold remains on track for a second consecutive weekly gain despite the pullback.</span></li> <li><span>The LME <strong>copper </strong>cash-to-three-month spread rose sharply to $245.64 per tonne — the highest since June 2025 — in a one-day move of $83.39, the largest in nearly eight weeks. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasuries </span></strong><span>advanced following the soft PPI print. The 2-year yield fell approximately 5 basis points, the 10-year fell to around 4.67%, and the 30-year fell ahead of the auction before edging back up post-results. The 5s30s spread widened, remaining inside daily range that marked the widest levels since May, with the long end structurally heavy and biased toward further steepening as the Fed premium drains from the front end.</span></li> <li><span>The US Treasury sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.216% — the highest since 2001 — tailing the when-issued yield of 5.212% by 0.4 basis points. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.39x, below the prior auction's 2.44x. Indirect bidders took 66.8% and primary dealers took 11.5% of the allocation. This follows Wednesday's 10-year auction, which cleared at 4.683%, the highest yield since the 2007 global financial crisis. Both auctions reflect investors demanding greater compensation to finance the growing US deficit.</span></li> <li><span>Despite the overall rate-hike narrative, options markets saw demand for hedges against rate cuts by both the Fed and the Bank of England. US money-market fund assets rose to a record $7.93 trillion, with approximately $18.3 billion in inflows in the week through August 12, as attractive front-end yields continue to draw flows.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /> <br /> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Front-end vol drains, chips run - Options Brief - 13 August 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The inflation print landed exactly where the market wanted it, and one-day S&P 500 volatility gave up almost a quarter of its value in a session. Further out, the curve flatly refused to follow.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 14.55 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (136.54) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.10</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The inflation print took premium out of the front of the curve and left the back untouched.</strong> One-day S&P 500 volatility fell <strong>24.44%</strong> to <strong>9.46</strong> and nine-day volatility <strong>11.42%</strong> to <strong>11.09</strong>, while one-year volatility gave up <strong>0.57%</strong> and front-month VIX futures rose <strong>0.73%</strong> to <strong>18.10</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Friday's window lost more than the calendar explains.</strong> S&P 500 options price <strong>48 points</strong> into the 14 August expiry, about <strong>0.62%</strong>, against roughly <strong>57 points</strong> that pure time decay would have left from Wednesday's <strong>70</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The index gain was narrow and the tape sold into it.</strong> The S&P 500 added <strong>0.26%</strong> while its equal-weighted version managed <strong>0.16%</strong>, and confirmed-opening flow in semiconductors and the mega-caps was led by call selling rather than buying.</li> </ul> <p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>July consumer prices came in exactly at consensus and pushed the odds of a September Federal Reserve hike down to <strong>40.1%</strong> from <strong>54.4%</strong> a week earlier, which was enough to carry the chipmakers and drain the event premium that had built up all week.</p> <p>Saxo's <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---cooler-cpi-lifts-chipmakers-as-brent-extends-its-run---13-august-2026-13082026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take</a> covers the macro detail.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Wednesday 12 August close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,748.50</strong> (+0.26%), Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,742.60</strong> (+0.74%), Dow <strong>53,775.39</strong> (-0.04%), IWM <strong>302.71</strong> (+0.57%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>0.16%</strong>, so the advance leaned on a small group of names. Nvidia gained <strong>3.03%</strong> and AMD <strong>1.82%</strong>, while Meta fell <strong>3.38%</strong> and Microsoft <strong>2.26%</strong>. CoreWeave surged <strong>19.2%</strong> and Cerebras dropped <strong>16%</strong>. Cisco beat on both lines and lifted its AI infrastructure order forecast to <strong>USD 9bn</strong> from <strong>USD 5bn</strong>, then faded after hours.</li> <li><strong >Europe:</strong><span > Stoxx 600 </span><strong >659.49</strong><span > (-0.16%), DAX </span><strong >26,331.07</strong><span > (-0.23%), SMI </span><strong >14,449.47</strong><span > (-0.86%). Renewed Middle East tension outweighed the benign inflation read. SAP fell </span><strong >2.6%</strong><span > and Prosus </span><strong >5.9%</strong><span >, while ABN Amro touched a record and Vestas jumped roughly </span><strong >19.7%</strong><span >.</span></li> <li><strong >Asia (Thursday session, in progress):</strong><span > Kospi </span><strong >6,822.37</strong><span > (+3.70%) in a second consecutive surge, Nikkei up </span><strong >1.74%</strong><span > to </span><strong >68,702.12</strong><span >, Hang Seng </span><strong >25,487.42</strong><span > (+0.19%) after Tencent beat on revenue at </span><strong >CNY 204.78bn</strong><span > and missed on profit.</span></li> <li><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent eased to </span><strong >USD 88.82</strong><span > and WTI to </span><strong >USD 83.10</strong><span > after six consecutive gains. Spot gold closed above </span><strong >USD 4,400</strong><span > for the first time in two months, and corn rallied </span><strong >4.6%</strong><span > on a USDA yield cut. The US 10-year yield sat at </span><strong >4.676%</strong><span >, the 2-year at </span><strong >4.184%</strong><span > and the 30-year at </span><strong >5.239%</strong><span >. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" >Saxo pricing</a><span > for full details.</span></li> <li><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Low Vol Bull, VIX </span><strong >14.55</strong><span >, 20-day realised volatility </span><strong >13.7%</strong><span > (increasing), S&P 500 </span><strong >3.26%</strong><span > above its 50-day moving average.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 13 August 2026, approximately 07:30 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 12 August, yesterday's positioning and not today's price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> was credit-led. The largest confirmed-opening prints in semiconductors and the mega-caps were sold rather than bought, with near-dated upside written in the chip leaders and longer-dated downside opened underneath it. That combination reads as holders monetising an extended move and paying for cover, not as anyone pressing a new view. The clearest paid-up buying was defensive and smaller in size.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> carried more premium than direction. The index tape leaned to puts on premium share while trade counts leaned the other way, and most of the put weight printed mid-market inside packages that give no readable side. Where the side was explicit, index puts were sold. The one clean directional cluster of the session sat in gold, and the defensive sector complex was busy with long-dated protection paid for by written upside.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface - 13 August 2026, approx. 07:30 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>14.55</strong> (-4.78%), the lowest close since early January</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>9.46</strong> (-24.44%)</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>11.09</strong> (-11.42%)</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.53</strong> · VIX6M <strong>20.82</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>22.62</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month <strong>18.10</strong> (+0.73%), a <strong>3.55-point</strong> premium to spot, widened from <strong>3.12</strong> in Wednesday's snapshot</li> <li>Second-month <strong>19.60</strong> (+0.52%), curve in contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>136.54</strong> (+0.70%), higher on a session when the index rose and volatility fell</li> <li>COR3M <strong>10.79</strong> (-6.74%)</li> <li>DSPX <strong>34.81</strong> (-1.44%)</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other volatility measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>88.50</strong> (-2.64%) · MOVE <strong>72.09</strong> (-7.48%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>20.97</strong> (-6.30%), <strong>1.44</strong> times VIX</li> <li>GVZ <strong>25.58</strong> (-1.58%) · OVX <strong>52.34</strong> (-4.82%) · VXSLV <strong>48.31</strong> (+0.08%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Today is priced as an ordinary session.</strong> S&P 500 options carry <strong>33 points</strong>, about <strong>0.43%</strong>, for this afternoon's expiry, derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. That figure sits below the <strong>0.62%</strong> priced into Friday even though producer prices and weekly claims both land today. <em><strong>In our view the market may be treating the inflation question as settled by Wednesday's release rather than reopened by the pipeline data.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>Friday's premium fell faster than the clock.</strong> The 14 August expiry priced <strong>70 points</strong> two sessions ago with three sessions to run, and flat volatility alone would have decayed that to roughly <strong>57</strong>. It now prices <strong>48</strong>. <em><strong>In our assessment the missing 9 points may be the cleanest evidence that implied volatility itself came out, rather than the position simply ageing.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>The relief was bought only at the very front.</strong> One-day and nine-day volatility gave up double-digit percentages while one-year volatility barely moved and both listed VIX futures closed higher, leaving the front contract <strong>3.55 points</strong> above spot against <strong>3.12</strong> the previous session. <em><strong>In our view that shape may suggest the market accepted a calmer week without accepting a calmer autumn.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>Tail cover held its bid while correlation kept falling.</strong> SKEW rose to <strong>136.54</strong> on a day the index gained and headline volatility dropped, an unusual pairing, and three-month implied correlation fell to <strong>10.79</strong>. <em><strong>In our assessment the combination may point to a market comfortable with index-level calm while still paying up for the wings</strong></em>, with single-name dispersion doing the work underneath, a <strong>6.4 point</strong> gap between Nvidia and Meta inside a <strong>0.26%</strong> index session being the illustration.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The semiconductor leg extends</strong></h2> <p>The chip complex is now two sessions into a run that has spread well beyond the US listings. The DRAM index gained <strong>7.68%</strong> to <strong>54.80</strong> on Wednesday, the semiconductor ETF <strong>2.08%</strong>, and Korea's market has added roughly <strong>7.5%</strong> across Wednesday and Thursday with the Korea country ETF up <strong>5.16%</strong> in the US session.</p> <p>What makes this worth watching from a volatility seat is that the options tape moved the other way. Confirmed-opening flow in semiconductors on Wednesday was dominated by call selling, concentrated in the memory names and in the expiry that captures the next chip earnings date. Nasdaq 100 volatility fell <strong>6.30%</strong> on the same day the sector led.</p> <p><em><strong>In our view a rally that the options market is writing into, rather than chasing, may leave less upside convexity priced than the price action alone would imply.</strong></em> Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for details.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today's catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>08:00 CET</strong> UK second-quarter GDP, June trade and industrial production</li> <li><strong>10:00 CET</strong> Norway rate decision</li> <li><strong>11:00 CET</strong> Eurozone June industrial production</li> <li><strong>14:30 CET</strong> US July producer price index and weekly initial jobless claims</li> <li><strong>19:00 CET</strong> US Treasury sells <strong>USD 25bn</strong> in 30-year bonds</li> <li>Earnings: Applied Materials, Adyen, RWE, Orsted, AP Moller, NetEase, Nu Holdings, Brookfield</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Wednesday's brief argued that the market had left its inflation hedging late and paid for it almost entirely inside a single session. That is exactly how it resolved: the front of the curve gave the premium straight back, and nothing past three months moved much at all.</p> <p><em><strong>In our view the reading worth carrying into today is the widening gap between spot volatility at 14.55 and the front future at 18.10, because it may say the calm is being priced as local rather than durable.</strong></em> Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>This content is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation. The author holds no position in the instruments referenced at the time of writing.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/crude-calms-cpi-day-gets-the-bid---options-brief---12-august-2026-12082026" data-id="1CF4623453544E0BB7A8C2022FDA9777" data-type="Article">Crude calms CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-surges-equity-vol-stays-home---options-brief---11-august-2026-11082026" data-id="87691E0874FC4C9683ADA934D90BA2E3" data-type="Article">Oil surges equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/gold-runs-hot-equity-vol-cools---options-brief---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="7F29B7BD8CBA44319ECF9B2DDC3AA02A" data-type="Article">Gold runs hot equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-shouts-payrolls-whispers---options-brief---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="97FC21FF5A0F43D5BFE9CAFB5FBF5E1D" data-type="Article">Oil shouts payrolls whispers - Options Brief - 7 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-crack-vol-shrugs---options-brief---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="E21D637978BB49BEAA0C0273BEE7BD4B" data-type="Article">Chips crack vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---cooler-cpi-lifts-chipmakers-as-brent-extends-its-run---13-august-2026-13082026" data-id="2DEC7EAD201A4538880839DC162F5395" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Cooler CPI lifts chipmakers as Brent extends its run - 13 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---crude-holds-firm-and-chip-exports-lift-korea-as-cpi-looms---12-august-2026-12082026" data-id="6FA6A284ED584F419339CE3C5D6D68CA" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms - 12 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Long US yields keep the dollar and carry trades alive.</h1> <p>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">USD edges higher after in-line CPI</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4><strong>The latest</strong></h4> <p><strong>US CPI fails to knock down long-end yields – or the US dollar.</strong> Yesterday’s July US CPI report landed almost precisely on expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and core CPI up 0.2%. The kneejerk reaction was straightforward enough: Treasury yields fell across the curve and the US dollar weakened. But the more interesting development came later, as only the front end of the Treasury curve retained much of the move. The result was a bull steepening of the US yield curve, with longer-dated yields giving back much of their initial decline.</p> <p>That distinction matters for the US dollar. A modest repricing of the next Fed move can pull the two-year yield lower, but the dollar may prove considerably harder to dislodge if the US 10-year and especially the 30-year remain near their cycle highs. The 10-year yield is back near 4.70% this morning. Longer-term US yields are increasingly about more than the precise timing of the next Fed move, with fiscal concerns, inflation risk and the sheer supply of US government debt all part of the equation. For FX traders, the simple point is that a softer Fed path at the front end does not necessarily translate into a softer US dollar if the rest of the curve refuses to rally.</p> <p><strong>The yen still can't find its feet.</strong> USDJPY remains above 159 – likely in part due to still-elevated long US treasury yields. Bloomberg reported overnight, citing unnamed sources, that Prime Minister Takaichi is comfortable with a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Short-dated Japanese yields and then yen barely managed to even react to this.</p> <p>Japanese wholesale inflation this morning could also prompt Bank of Japan to move sooner, as July producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year. Markets have increasingly brought forward expectations for the next Bank of Japan hike toward September. Still, the JPY reaction has been modest. If intervention, speculation that Takaichi has become more tolerant of a hike and very elevated producer-price inflation are collectively unable to generate a durable JPY rally, the market is telling us how powerful the carry headwind remains while US long-term yields stay this high. But the Ministry of Finance can unleash another round of JPY intervention at any time, possibly if USDJPY nears or exceeds 160.00 again.</p> <p><strong>A broader carry trade overlay?</strong> Yesterday's price action suggested that the story extends beyond JPY. EURCHF pushed to a new 2026 high above 0.9380, continuing the pressure on the zero-yielding Swiss franc. EURSEK meanwhile burst back above 11.00 and traded toward the 11.05 area, while NOKSEK flows may be playing a part in SEK weakness, as that pair pushed back through parity and as high as around 1.0100. That looks at least partly like a carry-trade signal: provided markets remain relatively calm, investors continue to have an incentive to fund in the lowest yielding currencies.</p> <p><strong>Bottom line(s):</strong> <em>If long-dated US yields remain near their cycle highs – or break above them – the dollar may remain firm even if the market continues to trim expectations for Fed tightening at the front end. A 30-year T-bond auction is up later today. Something needs to change in the carry trade and risk sentiment dynamic for JPY to catch a bid (and reverse the other seeming carry-focused action of late in CHF and SEK).</em></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Chart focus: EURSEK</h3> <p>EURSEK is worth putting back on the radar after its sudden push above 11.00 and toward 11.05. Sweden's policy rate remains at just 1.75%, where the Riksbank left it in June while explicitly acknowledging some probability that rates would have to rise later this year.</p> <p>That makes next week's meeting unusually interesting even if no policy move is expected immediately. The Riksbank makes its decision on Wednesday, August 19 and publishes it on Thursday, August 20. The September decision then comes on September 24 and, unlike next week's meeting, includes a new full Monetary Policy Report and rate path. Market pricing has been assigning something close to even odds to a hike by that September meeting.</p> <p>The question for EURSEK is whether the Riksbank is prepared to push back against the latest krona weakness. SEK had enjoyed a substantial re-rating earlier in the year, helped by a better European growth narrative and the prospect that the Riksbank's easing cycle was finished. But at 1.75%, Swedish rates offer little carry protection if the market begins to favour funding currencies again.</p> <p>A sustained EURSEK break higher from here would bring the upper end of the broader 2026 range back into play. Conversely, any hawkish pushback from the Riksbank next week – particularly explicit guidance that the September meeting is live – could quickly make the latest move above 11.00 look like a false break.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong>Ahead: can the US long bond behave?<br /> </strong><span >The immediate calendar is relatively thin, leaving geopolitical headlines around the Strait of Hormuz as the largest unpredictable source of volatility. Oil remains capable of making a chunky move in either direction on any indication that passage through the strait is normalising – or becoming still more disrupted. Brent remains close to $90 per barrel.</span></p> <p><span>For the US dollar, again, today's <strong><span>30-year Treasury auction</span></strong> may be more interesting than usual given where long-end yields are trading. The Treasury is scheduled to auction the long bond at 1700 GMT time today. Strong demand could finally provide some relief at the long end, while an ugly auction that sends the 30-year yield toward fresh cycle highs could provide another leg of support for the dollar – and perhaps another reason for USDJPY to pressure the authorities' pain threshold around 160.<br /> <strong>Norges Bank today</strong>: nothing expected, but watch the guidance and policy forecasts as September is seen at better than even odds for a rate hike.</span></p> <p><span>Tomorrow brings July US Retail Sales. Beyond that, the next obvious set-piece event for the US dollar is the <strong><span>August 27-29 Jackson Hole symposium</span></strong>, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will have an opportunity to reset the Fed's communications after his performance at the latest FOMC meeting was widely panned.</span></p> <p><span><strong><span>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </span></strong></span><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong><span>see a video tutorial</span></strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p><span>The big positive JPY impulse from the intervention has continued to fade, but the key USDJPY is back near the key 160 psychological level. Elsewhere, CHF weakness sticks out as the only prominent theme besides the recent firming in gold and silver. NZD was lower again overnight on a soft NZ Q3 inflation expectations survey.</span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span></span></p> <p><span>Little new to grab onto here in the individual pairs as trend status for JPY pairs is mostly hopelessly caught in the churning from intervention impulses and backfilling, while the USD status in many pairs looks negative, but is still an open question and partly caught up in the JPY drama.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Cooler CPI lifts chipmakers as Brent extends its run - 13 August 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 06:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: US inflation cooled to 3.4% and left the rate debate broadly where it stood</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: Chipmakers carried a benign inflation print while Cisco's beat-and-raise was faded after hours</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Event premium drained from the front of the volatility curve while longer-dated cover barely moved</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Miners outran a quiet spot tape as attention turned to Friday's SEC vote</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Corn jumps on yield cut as hot weather bites, while gold and oil take a breather</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US long-dated yields remained near cycle highs, short-dated yield dipped slightly after the US CPI release.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD edges higher after in-line CPI data. EURCHF hits new high for the year on weak CHF. SEK sharply lower.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US inflation slowed to 3.4% y/y in July from 3.5% as expected</strong>, easing Fed rate-hike bets, as energy pressures eased. <strong>Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, with shelter and food both up 0.1%, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y</strong> (from 2.6%), all in line with expectations.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi</strong> said that her government supports a near-term BoJ rate hike, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% y/y in July</strong>, slightly below 7.3% in June and 7.4% expected. On the month, prices edged up 0.1% after a revised 0.5% gain, the weakest increase in five months.</li> <li><strong>Germany’s inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in July from 2.3%</strong>, driven by an 8.3% jump in energy and higher motor fuel costs after tax relief ended. Services inflation eased to 2.9%, food stayed at 0.4%, core dipped to 2.4%, and CPI rose 0.8% m/m; EU-harmonized inflation also reached 2.8%.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK 2Q GDP</li> <li>0600 – UK June Trade and Industrial Production</li> <li>0800 – Norway Rate Decision</li> <li>0900 – Eurozone June Industrial Production</li> <li>1230 – US July PPI</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1700 – US to sell USD 25 billion 30-year Bonds</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p>Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US:</strong> US equities closed mostly higher as the in-line CPI print eased rate-hike fears. The <strong>S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748.50</strong>, the <strong>Nasdaq 100 gained 0.74% to 29,742.60</strong> and a one-month high, and the Russell 2000 added 0.61%, while the Dow was flat at 53,775.39. The index move hides a wide split: <strong>semiconductors carried the gain, Nvidia up 3.03% and AMD up 1.82%</strong>, while <strong>Meta fell 3.38% and Microsoft 2.26%</strong>. Earnings drove the rest. <strong>Cisco beat on both lines and raised its AI infrastructure order forecast to USD 9 billion from USD 5 billion</strong>, then fell around 4% after hours to 118.8 and held the loss. <strong>CoreWeave surged 19.2%</strong> on a USD 104 billion backlog and Lumentum rallied 13.6%, while <strong>Cerebras fell 16%</strong> on a double miss and Coherent slid 8% after hours on soft guidance. In our view the market paid up for the pure AI infrastructure names and faded the incumbents regardless of the print.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities edged lower as renewed Middle East tension overshadowed the benign US inflation backdrop. The <strong>Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 659.48</strong>, snapping a seven-day winning streak, with the <strong>DAX down 0.2% to 26,331.07</strong>, the CAC 40 off 0.5% to 8,674.94, the FTSE 100 down 0.1% to 10,833.15 and the <strong>SMI weakest at 14,449.47</strong>, down 0.9%. <strong>SAP fell 2.6% and Prosus 5.9%</strong>, the two largest declines in the index, while <strong>ABN Amro rose as much as 6.3% to a record high</strong> on a Q2 beat and guidance raise and <strong>Vestas jumped roughly 19.7%</strong> after lifting its full-year margin guidance.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> The semiconductor rally has extended into a second session. <strong>Korea's Kospi surged a further 3.71% to 6,823.27</strong> this morning, after Wednesday's roughly 3% gain on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and <strong>Japan's Nikkei rose 1.74% to 68,702.12</strong>. The <strong>Hang Seng steadied at 25,485.08</strong>, up 0.18%, after lagging on Wednesday as hedge funds cut China exposure to a five-year low, with net allocation at 6% in July. Mainland China firmed, the China A50 up 0.74%, while Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.30%. <strong>Tencent beat on revenue at CNY 204.78 billion but missed on profit</strong> as capital expenditure rose 65% from the prior quarter.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 14.55 | VIX FUTURES: 18.10 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (136.54) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~07:31 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>The in-line CPI print drained event premium across the curve. <strong>VIX fell 4.8% to 14.55</strong>, its lowest since 9 January, but the collapse was concentrated at the front: <strong>VIX1D </strong>dropped 24.4% to 9.46 and <strong>VIX9D </strong>11.4% to 11.09. <strong>VXN </strong>(Nasdaq Volatility) fell 6.3% to 20.97. </li> <li>The cash curve is steeply in contango, 9.46 at one day against 18.53 at three months, with the <strong>front VIX future at 18.10</strong>. Cross-asset vol eased in step: <strong>MOVE </strong>fell 7.5% to 72.09 and <strong>OVX </strong>4.8% to 52.34, while <strong>SKEW </strong>held elevated at 136.54. <strong>SPX options imply 0.43% for today's expiry</strong> and 0.62% into Friday.</li> <li>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~63,859 (+0.69%) | ETHEREUM ~1,896 (+0.97%) | IBIT 35.89 (-0.14%) | ETHA 14.16 (-0.14%) | AS OF ~07:31 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto firmed modestly overnight with the majors up under a point and <strong>DVOL easing to 35.65</strong>. The listed proxies told a sharper story:<strong> IREN surged 9.9% and CleanSpark 5.7%</strong>, tracking the neocloud earnings that lifted chipmakers, while <strong>Strategy </strong>fell 1.3% and the spot ETFs were flat. Spot bitcoin funds took in only USD 4.9 million.</li> <li>The <strong>SEC votes Friday on Regulation Crypto</strong>, which would create an investment-contract safe harbour for tokens whose networks run autonomously. The Senate left for recess without advancing the <strong>Digital Asset Market Clarity Act</strong>, pushing market-structure legislation to September.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Grains:</strong> The BCOM Grains Index jumped 3% on Wednesday, led by a 4.6% rally in corn after the USDA lowered its 2026 yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183 bpa a month ago, reflecting the impact of hot weather on America’s largest crop. Adding to the broader strength across grains, wheat futures rose 3% after Ukraine attacked a key Russian grain port, adding to concerns about export flows from the Black Sea region. </li> <li><strong>Oil </strong>futures traded lower following six consecutive sessions of gains after Brent encountered resistance around USD 90, with traders waiting for the next Middle East-related headline. Hopes for progress in talks between the US and Iran remain limited as both sides continue to harden their positions, with President Trump claiming the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz. In their latest monthly reports, both the IEA and EIA raised their estimates for 2026 demand destruction, helping explain why crude prices remain relatively muted despite six months of disrupted supply. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase since 2023, driven by a jump in imports and continued releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Spot gold closed above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months on Wednesday after in-line US CPI data eased concerns about further rate hikes. During Asian trading today, gold briefly reached USD 4,450 before retreating as traders booked profits ahead of the 200-day moving average, which is likely to provide resistance around USD 4,500. Gold ETFs added holdings for a fifth consecutive session, pointing to renewed investor appetite alongside a pickup in central bank purchases, notably from China.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries yields churned sideways to slightly slower as the US July CPI data came in exactly in line with the expectations</strong> for a small drop in the core YoY number to 2.5%. An auction of 10-year treasury notes saw solid demand, if slightly less demand than the previous two auctions. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield ended Wednesday less than two basis points lower, but fell another two basis points overnight into Thursday, trading 4.18%, only three basis points above the multi-week lows of 4.15%. The benchmark 10-year yield ended Wednesday almost unchanged near 4.69% after dipping intraday below 4.65%, and was trading 4.68% early Thursday. </li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bonds yield curve steepened slightly. Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that the government supports an earlier BoJ rate hike</strong>, which interestingly did little to boost short-dated Japanese yields, as the market still sees odds of a BoJ hike at the mid-September BoJ meeting at around 75%. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield was almost unchanged Thursday, still near the high of the cycle at 1.645%, while the 10-year JGB yield rose two basis points to almost 2.88%, nearing the multi-decade highs from July at 2.90%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar was slightly firmer after the US July CPI release was in-line with expectations Wednesday</strong>. EURUSD dipped toward 1.1520 after a 1.1563 high and AUDUSD fell back to just below 0.7050 by early Thursday after a probe just above 0.7090 in the wake of the US CPI release Wednesday. </li> <li><strong>Prime Minister Takaichi’s statement in favour of earlier BoJ hikes only offered the JPY modest support</strong> from near intraday lows Thursday, with <strong>USDJPY</strong> still trading near 159.35 after a 159.49 high earlier in the session.</li> <li>The lowest yielding major currency, the Swiss franc, weakened on Wednesday, with<strong> EURCHF hitting new highs for this year above 0.9380 </strong>early Thursday before finding resistance. Likewise,<strong> the Swedish krone fell sharply </strong>on Wednesday, perhaps getting punished for Sweden’s low policy rate.<strong> EURSEK </strong>rose from near 11.00 earlier in the day to close neaer 11.05, only about a half percent below the 11-month high near 11.115.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 13 August, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Headline and Core CPI matches forecasts. SoH remains closed.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>S&P 500 +0.3% while Dow -0.1%; Cerebras -16% after missing estimates</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar edges higher after in-line CPI; yen approaches 160, Swiss franc lags.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent settles at $88.98, up six straight sessions; gold holds above $4,400</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Yield curve bull steepened widening 5s30s spread to 88bps</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US inflation slowed to 3.4% y/y in July from 3.5%</span></strong></span><span>, as energy pressures eased. <strong>Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, with shelter and food both up 0.1%, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y</strong> (from 2.6%).</span></li> <li><span>Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% y/y in July, slightly below 7.3% in June and 7.4% expected. On the month, prices edged up 0.1% after a revised 0.5% gain, the weakest increase in five months. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Germany’s inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in July from 2.3%</span></strong></span><span>, driven by an 8.3% jump in energy and higher motor fuel costs after tax relief ended. Services inflation eased to 2.9%, food stayed at 0.4%, core dipped to 2.4%, and CPI rose 0.8% m/m; EU</span>‑<span>harmonized inflation also reached 2.8%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% y/y in July 2026</span></strong></span><span>, slightly below June’s revised 7.3% and the 7.4% consensus, indicating softer</span>‑<span>than</span>‑<span>expected cost pressures. On the month, prices rose 0.1% after a 0.5% gain, the weakest increase in five months.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities closed mostly higher on Wednesday as the in-line CPI print eased rate-hike fears and AI earnings momentum lifted sentiment. S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,748.50, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49, and the Dow slipped 0.04% to 53,770.27. The Nasdaq 100 reached a one-month high, driven by megacap chipmakers. The VIX fell to 14.5, its lowest since January 9. <strong>CoreWeave surged 19.2% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.58 billion, beating estimates, with a $104 billion sales backlog while Lumentum rallied 13.6% after beating earnings. After hours, Coherent slid as much as 8% as its Q1 guidance disappointed despite a Q4 beat, while </strong>EquipmentShare gained 5.1% on a strong earnings beat.<strong> Cerebras Systems fell 16% after missing revenue (180m vs 194m est) and earnings (loss of 5 cents vs 17 cents est) estimates.</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities edged lower on Wednesday as renewed Middle East tensions overshadowed the benign US inflation backdrop. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 659.48, snapping a seven-day winning streak. The DAX dropped 0.2% to 26,331.07, the CAC 40 fell 0.5% to 8,674.94, the FTSE 100 declined 0.1% to 10,833.15, and the SMI lost 0.9% to 14,449.47. SAP fell 2.6% and Prosus dropped 5.9%, the largest declines in the Stoxx 600. On the upside, ABN Amro surged as much as 6.3% to a record high after a broad Q2 beat and guidance raise. Vestas jumped ~19.7% after raising its full-year adjusted EBIT margin guidance to 7%–9% from 6%–8%.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets were broadly higher on Wednesday, led by a sharp rally in semiconductor names. The Kospi surged approximately 3% (Kospi 200 futures closed up 3.3%), driven by a surge in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on renewed AI optimism following strong neocloud earnings. Nikkei futures advanced in after-hours trade, tracking US gains. Hang Seng saw pressure from hedge funds cutting China stock exposure to a five-year low, with Goldman Sachs data showing net China allocation fell to 6% in July. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.4% on Wednesday. <strong>Tencent reported revenue of 204.78b yuan, beating estimates as their domestic games revenue grew 17% but net profit came in at 56b yuan, missing expectations as they continue to spend on compute, with capex rising 65% from last quarter. Galaxy Entertainment reported 1H revenue of HK$24.23 billion, slightly below estimates</strong>. Asian equity futures are pointing to further gains on Thursday following the benign US CPI print.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Thursday: Applied Materials; JD.com</span></li> <li><span>Friday: </span>Kweichow Moutai</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> ended Wednesday firmer, with DXY up 0.19% to 100.01 after an initial post-CPI dip was fully reversed as the in-line July core CPI print (0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) failed to materially alter Fed hike expectations. </span></li> <li><strong><span>USDCHF</span></strong><span> saw the largest G10 move, with the franc weakening 0.35% against the dollar — the biggest USD gain in the set.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong><span> edged closer to the psychologically significant 160 level, closing at 159.42. The yen has depreciated more than 1% in August, unwinding some of the late-July US-Japan coordinated intervention. Traders remain on intervention watch. </span></li> <li><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong><span> and <strong>GBPUSD </strong>both briefly rallied on the CPI release before reversing, ending modestly lower. Rate expectations — with the Fed still seen as more hawkish relative to peers — continued to support the dollar. </span></li> <li><strong><span>USDCNH </span></strong><span>was essentially flat at 6.7459. The PBOC set its fixing at 6.7882, stronger for a second consecutive session. Bloomberg Economics noted that the late-July US-Japan yen intervention has spilled over, putting additional appreciation pressure on the yuan.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI </span></strong><span>settled at $83.27 a barrel, little changed on the day, after surging approximately 11% over the prior five sessions on Hormuz supply fears. Brent settled at $88.98, up for six consecutive sessions. A massive EIA crude inventory build of 17.4 million barrels — the largest weekly move since January 2023 — was largely absorbed by the market, with analysts viewing it as an import-export dislocation rather than a demand deterioration.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Comex front-month gold</span></strong><span> settled up 0.59% at $4,408.90 per ounce — the highest settlement since June 4 — after the in-line CPI data eased rate-hike fears. Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% intraday to above $4,440. Gold steadied near $4,400 in early Thursday trading. Gold ETFs added holdings for a fifth straight day. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Silver </span></strong><span>settled up 1.2% at $65.555 per troy ounce, up in eight of the past eleven sessions.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>Treasury </strong>sold $42 billion of 10-year notes at a yield of 4.683% — the highest auction yield since 2007 — stopping through the when-issued yield by just 0.1bp, a sign demand fell slightly short of expectations. The Treasury is scheduled to sell $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.</span></li> <li><span>The short end outperformed following the CPI print. The 1-year yield fell 3.3bps to 3.999%, the 10-year fell 1.1bps to 4.682%, and the 30-year was little changed at 5.247%. The 5s30s spread widened to 88bps from 85.4bps, continuing the bull-steepener tone. <strong>Japanese government bonds</strong> are expected to rise, tracking moves in US peers, though the 5-year JGB yield hit 2.12% — its highest level since its debut — and the 2-year rate climbed to its peak since 1995 on Wednesday, weighed by yen weakness and BOJ hike expectations.</span></li> <li><span>US junk bond yields and risk premiums rose for a second session on Wednesday as elevated oil prices stoked inflation fears, with CCCs the worst-performing tier.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <span><br /> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI infrastructure earnings: demand is booming, but the hard part starts here</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 13:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro all point to exceptionally strong artificial intelligence</strong> infrastructure demand.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>The bottleneck is shifting from finding customers to delivering powered capacity</strong> quickly and profitably.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Better margins help, but huge capital spending </strong>means cash and financing still matter.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has spent two years asking whether demand can justify the enormous bill for chips and data centres. This earnings week gives a fairly clear answer: customers are still showing up.</span></p> <p><span>CoreWeave and Nebius rent specialised AI computing power. Super Micro Computer, commonly called Supermicro, builds the servers that hold the chips. Their latest results point in the same direction: orders are strong, capacity is scarce and growth remains rapid.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Demand has stopped being the main debate</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CoreWeave's quarterly revenue more than doubled, while its backlog of contracted future revenue reached roughly 104 billion USD. It also signed more than 25 billion USD of additional customer commitments after quarter-end and lifted its full-year outlook.</span></p> <p><span>Nebius added another strong data point on 12 August 2026. Revenue rose more than fivefold from a year earlier to 582 million USD, ahead of analysts’ expectations, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Annualised run-rate revenue, which turns the latest revenue pace into a yearly figure, reached 3 billion USD at the end of June, up from 1.9 billion USD three months earlier.</span></p> <p><span>Supermicro tells the same story from the hardware side. Quarterly sales nearly doubled, while more than 60 billion USD of new orders pushed backlog to a record. Its near-term sales outlook also came in well above expectations.</span></p> <p><span>The message is becoming difficult to miss: the AI infrastructure machine is still hungry.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bottleneck moves beyond chips</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Strong orders do not mean capacity appears instantly.</span></p> <p><span>Supermicro said some revenue was delayed because customers were waiting for power, cooling and networking infrastructure. A powerful server has limited value if the building around it is not ready. </span><span >Nebius is accelerating its buildout, raising expected year-end power capacity to 5 gigawatts from more than 4 gigawatts previously. CoreWeave is also increasing planned 2026 capital spending as it adds chips and data centres.</span></p> <p><span>The bottleneck is broadening. Advanced chips still matter, but so do electricity connections, cooling systems, construction schedules and financing. AI increasingly resembles an industrial infrastructure boom. </span><span >That supports demand across semiconductors, memory, networking, electrical equipment, cooling and power generation. It also means delays in one part of the chain can slow revenue elsewhere.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>The caveat is capital intensity. Nebius spent about 5.7 billion USD on property, equipment and intangible assets during the quarter. CoreWeave now expects tens of billions of dollars of annual capital spending. </span><span >The next test is whether these companies can turn customer commitments into attractive returns after paying for the infrastructure required to serve them.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: strong demand can create its own problems</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Execution comes first. Data centres need land, power, chips, cooling and networking to arrive at roughly the same time. Delays can push revenue into later quarters while costs continue.</span></p> <p><span>Financing matters too. Rapid expansion requires enormous upfront spending. Higher borrowing costs or poorly structured funding can weaken shareholder returns. Customer concentration and rapid hardware obsolescence add further risk, while Supermicro also carries company-specific export-control and compliance concerns.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Watch how quickly backlog becomes actual revenue</strong>, rather than treating every announced contract as completed business.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare capacity growth with utilisation</strong> and margins.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Follow capital spending, debt and cash</strong> alongside revenue growth.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Diversify across the AI supply chain</strong> rather than assuming strong demand produces identical returns everywhere.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The AI race enters the physical world</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The common thread running through CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro is no longer simply explosive AI demand. It is the difficult job of turning that demand into working infrastructure and then into durable economics.</span></p> <p><span>CoreWeave shows customers are still signing enormous commitments. Supermicro shows that power and cooling can matter as much as chips. Nebius now adds evidence that rapid scaling can improve operating profitability, even while the cash bill remains formidable.</span></p> <p><span>That is the next phase of the AI story. The industry does not appear short of customers. It needs electricity, equipment, capital and disciplined execution. The winners may still own the fastest technology, but increasingly they will also be the companies that build the best business around it.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<em><br /> </em></em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVidia Corp.</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold & silver after CPI: How to position in precious metals now?</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Gold’s structural strengths are coming back into focus.</span></strong><span> Central-bank demand, diversification, fiscal concerns and geopolitical hedging continue to support the longer-term precious-metals case.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The main risk remains tactical:</span></strong><span> higher US yields and a stronger dollar can still interrupt the recovery. The CPI outcome was therefore an important test of whether those headwinds ease or return.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Levels matter:</span></strong><span> Gold has reclaimed <strong>USD 4,200</strong>, with <strong>USD 4,500–4,585</strong> the key breakout zone. Silver has already recovered to around <strong>USD 65</strong>, with <strong>USD 69–70</strong> the next important hurdle.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>Gold’s structural story is becoming harder to ignore again. Central-bank buying, diversification away from fiat currencies, fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide a longer-term foundation, while investor interest is starting to return after the sharp correction earlier this year.</span></p> <p><span>The challenge remains the <strong>tactical macro backdrop</strong>. Higher real yields and a stronger US dollar can quickly pressure precious metals, which makes the latest CPI print — and especially the subsequent reaction in yields and the dollar — important for the next move.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Now that CPI is out, we have put together three scenarios for how investors can think about gold and silver from here.<br /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>If CPI came in softer than expected: breakout potential rises</span></strong></h2> <p><span>A downside inflation surprise should strengthen expectations for a less restrictive Fed and could pull US yields and the dollar lower.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Gold</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>The major test is <strong>USD 4,500–4,585</strong>, where technical resistance clusters.</span></li> <li><span>A sustained break could open <strong>USD 4,778</strong>, followed by <strong>USD 4,971</strong>.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USD 4,200</span></strong><span> is now an important support zone.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Silver</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>Silver has already recovered to around <strong>USD 65</strong>.</span></li> <li><span>A break above <strong>USD 69–70</strong>, around the 200-day moving average, would strengthen the recovery.</span></li> <li><span>Beyond that, <strong>USD 80.3</strong> comes into focus, followed by <strong>USD 88.2</strong> and <strong>USD 96.1</strong>.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> Softer CPI alongside falling yields and a weaker dollar would strengthen the case for adding precious-metals exposure. Silver could offer the higher-beta move if momentum broadens.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>If CPI was broadly in line: constructive, but don’t chase</span></strong></h2> <p><span>An unsurprising inflation print may leave the precious-metals recovery intact without providing enough of a catalyst for an immediate breakout.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> Existing exposure can still make sense, while investors considering new positions may prefer pullbacks rather than chasing a post-CPI move.</span></p> <ul> <li><span>For gold, <strong>USD 4,200</strong> is the first support to watch and <strong>USD 4,500–4,585</strong> remains the key breakout zone.</span></li> <li><span>For silver, holding above the <strong>low-USD 60s</strong> would keep the recovery constructive, with <strong>USD 69–70</strong> the next hurdle.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>If gold and silver continue rising despite an unremarkable CPI print, that would be an encouraging signal that underlying demand is beginning to outweigh the rates story.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>If CPI came in hotter than expected: tactical shakeout risk</span></strong></h2> <p><span>A meaningful upside inflation surprise, particularly in core CPI, could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher and interrupt the precious-metals recovery.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Gold:</span></strong><span> A failure near USD 4,500 followed by a break below <strong>USD 4,200</strong> could bring the <strong>USD 4,000–3,960</strong> support zone back into focus.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Silver:</span></strong><span> A reversal below the low-USD 60s would weaken the recovery, while <strong>USD 54.5</strong> remains the major downside support.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Positioning:</span></strong><span> A hotter CPI print does not necessarily invalidate the longer-term precious-metals case. But investors may want to avoid rushing into the first dip and instead watch whether yields and the dollar stabilise.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>Want more torque? Look at miners. </span></em></p> <p><span>For investors looking for a <strong>higher-beta way to express a bullish metals view</strong>, mining equities can amplify moves in the underlying commodities — although that also means greater volatility and company-specific risks.</span></p> <p><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/go/theme/553e314a-e990-41cb-8c2f-1975ecfc72ae">Explore Saxo’s Miners Shortlist</a>, which brings together global mining stocks and ETFs across precious and industrial metals.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><strong><span>The structural precious-metals story is rebuilding. CPI tells us whether the tactical macro backdrop is ready to cooperate.</span></strong></p> <p><span>Gold has demonstrated where buyers are prepared to defend the market, while silver has already begun its higher-beta recovery. The next test is harder: <strong>gold needs to clear USD 4,500–4,585, while silver needs to break USD 69–70.</strong></span></p> <p><span>Softer inflation and falling yields could unlock those breakouts. Hotter inflation could delay them — and potentially offer better entry levels first.</span></p> <p><span><hr /> </span></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Theme Category - Commodities</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Sugar breaks higher as tightening supply catches shorts off guard</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="aum65"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="aum65-0-0"> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="aum65"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="aum65-0-0"> <div data-offset-key="aum65-0-0"><span data-offset-key="aum65-0-0">Sugar futures in New York have pushed above 17 cents/lb, reaching an important area of resistance that has capped the upside on two previous occasions during the past year. Nine successive sessions of gains - the longest winning streak since January 2021, according to Bloomberg - have lifted prices by around 18%, driven by mounting concerns about tightening global supplies.<br /> <br /> </span></div> </div> </div> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="9oobe"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="9oobe-0-0"> <div data-offset-key="9oobe-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9oobe-0-0">The supply outlook is becoming increasingly supportive. European sugar production is expected to fall to a decade low, while El Niño-related weather risks threaten cane output in India and Thailand, two of the world's largest producers alongside Brazil. Any meaningful deterioration in Asian crops would leave the market increasingly dependent on Brazilian supply.<br /> <br /> </span></div> </div> </div> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="fpb1i"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="fpb1i-0-0"> <div data-offset-key="fpb1i-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fpb1i-0-0">One caveat is the shifting economics between sugar and ethanol in Brazil. The recent rally has pushed sugar to a sizeable premium over ethanol, strengthening the incentive for Brazilian mills to maximise sugar production rather than divert cane toward biofuel. That flexibility could eventually provide a supply response and limit the upside if current price strength persists.<br /> <br /> </span></div> </div> </div> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="3dfdd"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="3dfdd-0-0"> <div data-offset-key="3dfdd-0-0"><span data-offset-key="3dfdd-0-0">Positioning has added fuel to the rally. Just before prices accelerated last week, speculators had already cut their net short position in New York sugar futures by around 30% to 77,800 contracts. With the market subsequently breaking above its long-term downtrend and the 200-day moving average, further short covering appears to have contributed to the latest surge.<br /> <br /> </span></div> </div> </div> <div data-rfd-draggable-context-id=":r8:" data-rfd-draggable-id="9kf1l"> <div data-block="true" data-editor="35ov5" data-offset-key="9kf1l-0-0"> <div data-offset-key="9kf1l-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9kf1l-0-0">Attention now turns to the 17-cent area which as mentioned has offered resistance and attracted profit taking on two previous attempts in the last year. A sustained break above this resistance zone may strengthen the technical picture further, while failure to hold the breakout could leave the market vulnerable to profit taking as the short covering squeeze fades, particularly if Brazil responds to the improved sugar-production economics.</span><span ></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Sugar breaking higher, partly driven by short covering from hedge funds - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Crude calms, CPI day gets the bid - Options Brief - 12 August 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Yesterday the market paid for an oil shock and ignored the equity one. Overnight that flipped, and almost all of the new premium landed inside a single trading session.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.28 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (135.59) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.40</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>The volatility bid left the commodity complex and moved into a single equity session.</strong> Gold volatility fell <strong>6.85%</strong> to <strong>25.99</strong> and silver volatility <strong>5.26%</strong> to <strong>48.27</strong>, both giving back most of Monday's spike, while one-day S&P 500 volatility rose <strong>34.05%</strong> to <strong>12.52</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Friday's window repriced by more than the calendar explains.</strong> S&P 500 options now price <strong>70 points</strong>, about <strong>0.91%</strong>, into the 14 August expiry, against the <strong>64 points</strong> that time decay alone would have left from yesterday's reading of <strong>78</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The tape that traded was not positioned for the print.</strong> Confirmed-opening premium on Tuesday ran to long-dated deep in-the-money structures and sold semiconductor volatility, with almost nothing sized against the inflation release.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 12 August 2026, approx. 07:15 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Crude held a fifth consecutive advance as Iran repeated that the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, leaving the July consumer price report as the session's swing variable. Full macro rundown in Saxo's <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---crude-holds-firm-and-chip-exports-lift-korea-as-cpi-looms---12-august-2026-12082026" target="_blank">Market Quick Take – Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms, 12 August 2026</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Tuesday 11 August close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,728.20</strong> (-0.32%), Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,525.48</strong> (-0.33%), Dow <strong>53,797.39</strong> (-0.34%), IWM <strong>300.99</strong> (+0.34%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>0.21%</strong>, so the index decline came from a handful of large names. Alphabet fell <strong>3.84%</strong> and Amazon <strong>2.09%</strong>, while Apollo Global gained <strong>6.3%</strong> and Sea Limited <strong>14.6%</strong>.</li> <li><span ></span><strong >Europe:</strong><span > Stoxx 600 </span><strong >660.52</strong><span > (+0.01%), Euro Stoxx 50 </span><strong >6,551.23</strong><span > (+0.24%) at a record close, DAX </span><strong >26,391.42</strong><span > (+0.26%), FTSE 100 down </span><strong >0.2%</strong><span >. Energy shares carried the region.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia (Wednesday session, in progress):</strong><span > Kospi </span><strong >6,561.55</strong><span > (+3.40%) as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each added roughly </span><strong >5%</strong><span >, Nikkei up </span><strong >0.8%</strong><span > on its return from holiday, Hang Seng </span><strong >25,347.96</strong><span > (-1.19%) ahead of Tencent's results.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > Brent traded near </span><strong >USD 89.48</strong><span > and WTI near </span><strong >USD 83.84</strong><span >, a fifth straight gain. Gold futures held near </span><strong >USD 4,460</strong><span > and copper near </span><strong >USD 6.66</strong><span > per pound. The US 10-year yield eased to </span><strong >4.684%</strong><span > from </span><strong >4.705%</strong><span >, the 2-year to </span><strong >4.218%</strong><span >. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a><span > for full details.</span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Low Vol Bull, VIX </span><strong >15.28</strong><span >, 20-day realised volatility </span><strong >13.7%</strong><span > (stable), S&P 500 </span><strong >3.03%</strong><span > above its 50-day moving average.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 12 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 11 August, yesterday's positioning and not today's price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> was long-dated and structural. Roughly <strong>71%</strong> of the <strong>USD 1.69bn</strong> in confirmed-opening premium went to calls, but the largest lines were deep in-the-money strikes running from October 2026 to February 2027, which behave like the shares with a financing cost attached rather than a view on the next few days. The cleanest paid-up buying sat a full year out. Mega-cap premium leaned <strong>58%</strong> to puts, though nearly all of it printed mid-market in deep in-the-money strikes inside multi-leg packages, so the sign is not readable.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> told a clearer story in volatility than in direction. Semiconductor premium was close to balanced overall, yet roughly <strong>USD 49m</strong> of the size was explicitly sold against about <strong>USD 18m</strong> bought, concentrated in September 2026 and longer expiries. Metals ran <strong>66%</strong> to calls across gold, silver and the miners, while energy premium looked like long-dated structure rather than protection despite a <strong>75%</strong> put share. Almost nothing in the confirmed-opening tape was sized against the inflation release itself.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 12 August 2026, approx. 07:15 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX spot <strong>15.28</strong> (-1.16%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>12.52</strong> (+34.05%) · VIX9D <strong>12.52</strong> (-1.96%)</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.91</strong> (-0.37%) · VIX6M <strong>21.10</strong> (-0.19%) · VIX1Y <strong>22.75</strong> (-0.04%), an upward sloping cash curve outside the event window</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month VIX futures <strong>18.40</strong> (+9.60%), a <strong>3.12-point</strong> premium to spot and just below three-month cash volatility</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>19.80</strong> (+7.44%), front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.930</strong>, curve in contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>135.59</strong> (-1.12%), well above the <strong>100 to 120</strong> neutral zone</li> <li>COR3M <strong>11.57</strong> (+3.86%), implied correlation still near the low end of its range</li> <li>DSPX <strong>35.32</strong> (-3.58%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio <strong>0.702</strong>, index put/call <strong>0.879</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Cross-asset volatility</h4> <ul> <li>OVX <strong>54.99</strong> (-1.91%), oil volatility easing despite a fifth straight advance in crude</li> <li>GVZ <strong>25.99</strong> (-6.85%) · VXSLV <strong>48.27</strong> (-5.26%) · MOVE <strong>77.92</strong> (+3.26%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>22.38</strong> (-2.86%) · RVX <strong>19.07</strong> (-0.73%) · VXD <strong>14.08</strong> (+0.36%) · VVIX <strong>90.90</strong> (-1.74%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 12 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>The print is now being paid for, and yesterday it was not.</strong></em> S&P 500 options price <strong>45 points</strong>, about <strong>0.58%</strong>, for today's expiry and <strong>70 points</strong>, about <strong>0.91%</strong>, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Tuesday's edition quoted <strong>78 points</strong> for that same Friday expiry with three sessions left, and flat volatility alone would have decayed that to roughly <strong>64</strong>. In our view the extra <strong>6 points</strong> may be the clearest sign that the event premium arrived late. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>The entire repricing sits inside one session.</strong></em> One-day volatility rose <strong>34.05%</strong> while nine-day volatility fell <strong>1.96%</strong> and three-month volatility barely moved, and the at-the-money contract expiring today carries roughly <strong>21%</strong> implied volatility against about <strong>14%</strong> for Friday. In our assessment the market may be treating the inflation number as a shock that resolves on the day rather than one that changes the regime.</li> <li><em><strong>The volatility bid rotated out of commodities.</strong></em> Gold, silver and oil volatility all fell after Monday's spike, while bond volatility rose <strong>3.26%</strong> to <strong>77.92</strong>. In our view the complex that spent last week reacting to the Hormuz standoff appears to have handed the sensitivity back to rates and equities, at least for this session.</li> <li><em><strong>The curve is priced for calm after today.</strong></em> Front-month VIX futures at <strong>18.40</strong> sit <strong>3.12 points</strong> above spot and just below three-month cash volatility at <strong>18.91</strong>, which is the shape a market shows when it expects the near term to normalise upward rather than to break. In our assessment that structure may leave little room for disappointment if the number lands outside the consensus of <strong>0.1%</strong> on the month for headline prices. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p><strong>13:00 CET</strong> US MBA mortgage applications.<br /> <strong>14:30 CET</strong> US July consumer price index, consensus <strong>0.1%</strong> on the month and <strong>3.4%</strong> on the year for headline, <strong>0.2%</strong> and <strong>2.5%</strong> for core.<br /> <strong>18:00 CET</strong> USDA world agricultural supply and demand estimates.<br /> <strong>19:00 CET</strong> US Treasury auctions 10-year notes.<br /> Monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC land during the day. Earnings: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent and Nebius Group.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our assessment, yesterday's brief described a market that had priced a commodity shock without pricing an equity one. Overnight it started paying for the equity one, and it paid almost entirely inside today's session. In our view the gap between a <strong>21%</strong> one-day contract and a <strong>14%</strong> two-day contract may be the reading worth watching after the release, because it shows how much of the move the market expects to be over by tonight, though a single print could reprice the whole front end and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-surges-equity-vol-stays-home---options-brief---11-august-2026-11082026" data-id="87691E0874FC4C9683ADA934D90BA2E3" data-type="Article">Oil surges equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/gold-runs-hot-equity-vol-cools---options-brief---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="7F29B7BD8CBA44319ECF9B2DDC3AA02A" data-type="Article">Gold runs hot equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-shouts-payrolls-whispers---options-brief---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="97FC21FF5A0F43D5BFE9CAFB5FBF5E1D" data-type="Article">Oil shouts payrolls whispers - 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Oil rally revives inflation worry as CPI approaches - 11 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oil gyrates on Hormuz headlines as depleted inventories and tight distillates raise the stakes</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span>Oil remains trapped between geopolitical risk and expectations that an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will release shut-in Gulf production, keeping price volatility elevated.</span></li> <li><span>The IEA and EIA both highlight rapidly depleted inventories, but demand destruction, weak Chinese crude imports and expectations of eventual supply normalisation help explain why crude is not trading materially higher.</span></li> <li><span>Refined products, particularly diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, remain significantly tighter than crude as Middle Eastern and Russian refinery disruptions drive crack spreads and refining margins to exceptional levels.</span></li> <li><span>Deep backwardation has delivered a major windfall to long-only investors, with total returns in crude and distillates substantially exceeding the rise in prompt futures prices.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong >A market driven by headlines</strong></h3> <p>Oil continues to gyrate sharply as the war of words between Washington and Tehran leaves no clear path towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is trading around USD 90 per barrel, but recent price action has been characterised by rapid swings as traders react to every diplomatic headline. Iran continues to insist that its conditions must be met before the Strait reopens, while Washington has introduced demands of its own, leaving negotiations effectively stuck.</p> <p>The volatility partly reflects the extraordinary uncertainty surrounding the timing and consequences of any reopening. Initially, restored shipping would undoubtedly be viewed as bearish. Crude exports could increase, some shut-in Gulf production could restart, logistical bottlenecks would ease and a sizeable geopolitical risk premium would disappear.</p> <p>However, that is only one side of the story. Nearly six months of disruption have left the global oil system with much thinner buffers than when the conflict began.</p> <p>The IEA estimates that observed global oil inventories have fallen by around 410 million barrels since the start of the war, equivalent to an average draw of 2.7 million barrels per day. Stocks fell another 69 million barrels in July, while the agency now expects the global oil balance to remain in deficit by around 1.8 million barrels per day during the third quarter.</p> <p>Emergency stock releases have helped bridge the gap, but these barrels represent supply borrowed from the future rather than newly created supply. Strategic inventories will eventually need rebuilding, meaning an eventual return of Gulf barrels will not necessarily translate into an immediate or sustained surplus.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Why is crude not higher?</strong></h3> <p>Given the scale and duration of the disruption, the more interesting question may be why Brent continues to trade below USD 100. <span >Demand destruction provides much of the answer.</span></p> <p>The IEA has lowered its 2026 world oil demand forecast again and now expects consumption to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day this year. Demand contracted by an estimated 4.9 million barrels per day year-on-year during the second quarter and is expected to remain down 2.8 million barrels per day in the third. High fuel prices, disrupted supply chains and reduced product availability are all weighing on consumption.</p> <p>China has played an especially important balancing role. EIA data show Chinese crude imports averaged just 8.1 million barrels per day during the second quarter, down 32% from the first, while imports remained sharply below year-earlier levels in July. Reduced demand from the world's largest crude importer has absorbed a meaningful part of the Gulf supply shock and helped prevent prices from rising further.</p> <p>The market is also forward-looking. Traders continue to price the probability that Hormuz eventually reopens and Gulf production recovers. The EIA assumes flows remain severely constrained through August before gradually improving from September, although it expects trade and production patterns to take until early 2027 to approach their pre-conflict configuration. Its latest forecast sees Brent averaging around USD 85 in the third quarter, falling towards USD 78 in the fourth quarter and USD 69 in 2027 as production recovers and inventories eventually rebuild.</p> <p>This expected future normalisation acts as a ceiling on prompt prices even while today's physical balance remains exceptionally tight.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Since March, Brent crude has gyrated within a 50-dollar wide range averaging around USD 85 - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The real squeeze is in refined products</strong></h3> <p>The strongest signal of tightness is arguably no longer crude itself but refined products, particularly middle distillates. <span >Diesel, jet fuel and heating oil markets remain squeezed by disruptions in two critical refining regions. Middle Eastern crude and product exports remain constrained, while Ukrainian attacks continue to restrict Russian refinery operations.</span></p> <p>The Gulf had developed into one of the world's most important export-oriented refining hubs before the war, exporting around 3.3 million barrels per day of refined products in 2025. The region is particularly important for diesel and jet fuel. Many of its sophisticated refineries are designed around medium and sour crude grades which, combined with complex upgrading capacity, are well suited to producing middle distillates. Medium-gravity crude naturally produces a higher proportion of diesel and kerosene than very light crude, making the loss of these barrels particularly difficult to replace.</p> <p>The latest IEA report underlines the scale of the problem. Global refinery crude throughputs reached 80.9 million barrels per day in July but remained almost 5 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia were down 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year, equivalent to around 20% of global seaborne diesel trade, while jet fuel exports from the same regions fell by roughly 670,000 barrels per day, or 34% of global trade.</p> <p>The accompanying charts tell the story clearly: distillate cracks have surged well above gasoline margins across the US, Europe and Asia, while the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack has climbed to exceptionally elevated levels.</p> <p>For refiners that can secure crude and maintain high utilisation, the economics are therefore extraordinary. Marathon Petroleum reported second-quarter refining and marketing EBITDA of USD 6.7 billion versus USD 1.9 billion a year earlier, with its refining margin more than doubling to USD 36.33 per barrel. Major refiners including Sinopec, Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum and Valero are obvious beneficiaries, with Marathon and Valero shares having roughly doubled year-to-date as investors price the improvement in refining economics.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Exceptional high margins creating a windfall for refiners - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Backwardation adds tailwind to long-only investors</strong></h3> <p>Another often overlooked feature of this year's energy rally has been the return generated through the futures curve, where persistent backwardation has significantly boosted performance for long positions. In a backwardated market, near-term contracts trade at a premium to later-dated ones, meaning that as positions are rolled forward investors are effectively selling higher-priced expiring contracts and buying cheaper deferred ones. This creates a positive roll yield that adds to spot price gains, amplifying total returns even in periods when outright price moves are relatively modest.<br /> <br /> <span >The accompanying Bloomberg/Saxo data show Brent gaining 46.6% on the first futures contract while delivering a total return of 75.7%. WTI shows an almost identical divergence, with a 45.5% prompt-month gain translating into a 75.4% total return. The difference is even more dramatic in distillates, with gasoil producing a 154.8% total return against a 98.4% gain in the first future, while ULSD has returned 140.4% versus a 100% prompt-contract advance.</span></p> <p>Deep backwardation has therefore provided long-only investors with substantial positive roll yield on top of the directional price gain. Put differently, the shortage is being expressed not only through higher prices but also through the increasingly expensive premium attached to immediately available barrels. Note in recent weeks the backwardation has eased, thereby reducing the mentioned roll yield.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Backwardation has created significant returns for long-only investors across crude and fuel products - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Where next?</strong></h3> <p>An eventual reopening of Hormuz would almost certainly trigger another sharp downward adjustment as traders price returning Gulf exports. But the subsequent move may prove more complicated.</p> <p>Inventories have been heavily depleted, strategic reserves have been drawn down, Gulf production remains well below normal and the refining system has lost capacity precisely where the market needs it most. The IEA itself expects inventories to remain under pressure before the balance moves back towards surplus later this year.</p> <p>That leaves crude caught between two powerful forces: expectations of future supply normalisation on one side and an increasingly depleted physical buffer on the other. Until the Strait actually reopens and production visibly recovers, volatility looks set to remain a defining feature - while distillates and the shape of the futures curve may continue to provide the clearest evidence of just how tight the underlying energy market has become.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key.</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:08:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">US treasury yields in focus after longest yields tested high end of range.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/treasury-market-in-focus-over-us-cpi/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Mike Green is <span><a href="https://substack.com/inbox/post/210417854" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">striking out on a new adventure</a></span>, one that will eye opportunities in the inefficiencies created by increasingly dominant passive flows.</li> <li>Michael McNair <span><a href="https://x.com/michaeljmcnair/status/2087425612205961411" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">responds</a></span> to a Stephen Roach substack article on <span><a href="https://stephenroach.substack.com/p/chinas-deepening-japan-problem?r=12ygf&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China's Deepening Japan Problem</a></span>. </li> <li>Michael <a href="https://media.rabobank.com/asset/b42bf042-50e0-435d-8426-25f5322d0308/global_daily_the_beautiful_great_game.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>Every's latest Global Daily</span></a> from Rabobank, with some great comments and sub-links</li> <li>Canada's The Walrus with a great piece discussed on today's pod, outlining <span><a href="https://thewalrus.ca/google-search-is-dying/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the risks to the entire quality of the internet as AI results replace Google search</a></span>.</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Defined risk is not small risk: what the contract multiplier decides</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A 100-point-wide spread on a EUR 1,420 stock is textbook defined risk. It is also EUR 4,000 on one contract. The number that decides which of those you are actually holding is the one nobody looks at.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The standard advice ahead of a company report is consistent and reasonable. Do not buy naked premium into a binary event. Use a spread. Cap the downside. Know the worst case before you enter.</p> <p>Now apply it. Take a stock trading near <strong>EUR 1,420</strong>, roughly where ASML closed on 3 August 2026 (Source: Saxo). Buy a 100-point-wide call spread for a net debit of about EUR 40. The risk is defined, exactly as instructed. It is also <strong>EUR 4,000</strong> on a single contract. The rule was followed to the letter and the position is still too large for most books to carry through an event.</p> <p>That gap is worth naming, because it sits in a blind spot. “Defined” describes the shape of the outcome. It carries no information about magnitude. The variable that sets magnitude is the contract multiplier, and almost nobody treats it as a variable at all.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> The multiplier is a choice, not a constant</strong></h2> <p>Maximum loss on a vertical spread is the width, less the credit, multiplied by the contract size. Traders spend their attention almost entirely on the first two terms. Strike selection, credit received, break-even placement. The third term gets treated as scenery.</p> <p>It is not scenery. The 100-share contract is a round-lot convention inherited from a period when shares were cheap, and exchanges have been quietly adjusting it ever since. Euronext now lists smaller contracts on twenty-one European names across Amsterdam, Paris, Brussels and Milan.</p> <p>The clearest evidence that this is a deliberate dial rather than a standard is Lotus Bakeries. The shares closed at <strong>EUR 11,160</strong> on 3 August 2026, which would put a 100-share contract at roughly <strong>EUR 1.1 million</strong> of notional. Euronext lists the mini at <strong>one share</strong> (Source: Saxo, 4 August 2026). Everywhere else on the list the size is ten.</p> <p>Nor is the list confined to expensive shares. Capgemini closed at <strong>EUR 107.20</strong> and SAP at <strong>EUR 164.64</strong>, where a full-size contract presents no obstacle at all. In our view that suggests these contracts are better understood as a granularity product than as an affordability fix.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> What changes, and what does not</strong></h2> <p>A smaller contract is not a different instrument. Same strikes, same expiry dates, same implied volatility, same delta per share.</p> <p>That is verifiable rather than assumed. Comparing both ASML roots on the same 21 August 2026 expiry on 4 August 2026, implied volatility matched to two decimals across the strike range and deltas matched to three (Source: Saxo). The pricing surface is identical. Only the multiplier moves.</p> <p>Which means the earlier example simply rescales. The same 100-point-wide spread, bought at the same EUR 40 debit, carries <strong>EUR 400</strong> of maximum risk on a 10-share contract against <strong>EUR 4,000</strong> on the standard, with maximum gain of about <strong>EUR 600</strong> against <strong>EUR 6,000</strong>. Identical break-even, identical shape, identical greeks per share.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Vertical call spread – example structure (illustrative only – not a trade recommendation)</h4> <ul> <li>Buy 1 call, sell 1 call 100 points higher, for a net debit of about <strong>EUR 40</strong>, being roughly EUR 74 paid for the lower strike less roughly EUR 34 taken in on the higher strike</li> <li>Maximum risk on a 10-share contract: about <strong>EUR 400</strong>, against a maximum gain of about <strong>EUR 600</strong></li> <li>Maximum risk on a 100-share contract: about <strong>EUR 4,000</strong>, against a maximum gain of about <strong>EUR 6,000</strong></li> <li>Break-even: identical in both cases, at the lower strike plus the net debit</li> </ul> <p>All figures are hypothetical and for education only. These are American-style options, so a short leg moving into the money may be assigned before expiry, delivering 10 shares rather than 100. The smaller contract reduces the absolute loss, not the probability of incurring it. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <p><em>The same position at two contract sizes. Shape, break-even and greeks per share are identical; only the scale changes. Illustrative only, not a trade recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive. Source: Saxo</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Why company reports sharpen the problem</strong></h2> <p>Implied volatility rises into a scheduled report and falls afterwards. The practical consequence is that premium per contract is at its most expensive precisely when a trader wants to be involved. The constraint is not constant. It tightens exactly as the opportunity appears.</p> <p>That collides with position sizing. A risk rule expressed as a percentage of capital sets a maximum bet. The contract sets a minimum one. Where the minimum exceeds the maximum, something has to give, and in practice it is usually the rule rather than the trade.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – repetition is the point.</strong> The risk on any single event position is the full defined loss, and a smaller multiplier changes the absolute numbers rather than that exposure. What it may change is how often the position can be taken at all. Report-day outcomes are fat-tailed and largely company-specific, so any edge a process might hold can only show up across repetitions. A structure a trader can afford twice a year behaves like a lottery ticket regardless of how well it was chosen. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Where the smaller contract is listed</strong></h2> <table class="spec"> <thead> <tr> <th>Company</th> <th>Mini code</th> <th>Market</th> <th>Contract size</th> <th>Weekly minis</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Adidas</td> <td>ADQM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Airbus</td> <td>EA1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Allianz</td> <td>AZQM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>argenx</td> <td>ARGM</td> <td>Brussels</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ASM International</td> <td>ASMM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ASML</td> <td>ASLM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BE Semiconductor</td> <td>BESM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Capgemini</td> <td>CP1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EssilorLuxottica</td> <td>EF1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ferrari</td> <td>RACM</td> <td>Milan</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hermès</td> <td>HE1</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kering</td> <td>KR1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>L’Oréal</td> <td>OR1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lotus Bakeries</td> <td>LOTM</td> <td>Brussels</td> <td>1</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>LVMH</td> <td>MC1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>yes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rheinmetall</td> <td>RHQM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SAP</td> <td>APQM</td> <td>Amsterdam</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Safran</td> <td>SM1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Schneider Electric</td> <td>SU1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thales</td> <td>HO1M</td> <td>Paris</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UCB</td> <td>UCBM</td> <td>Brussels</td> <td>10</td> <td>no</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><em>Contract specifications as listed on Saxo, 4 August 2026. Adyen is listed separately as a standard stock option in Amsterdam but already carries a 10-share contract, so no mini exists alongside it. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Three things worth checking first</strong></h2> <p><strong>Costs weigh proportionally heavier.</strong> A per-contract charge sits against a tenth of the notional, so the same fee represents roughly ten times the drag. On short-dated structures this can matter more than the spread. See <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <p><strong>Do not assume the smaller book is the thinner one.</strong> It has to be checked at the strikes actually being considered, though the assumption often fails in the unexpected direction. Comparing both ASML roots on 4 August 2026, the mini quoted tighter than the standard contract on fourteen of the twenty lines examined, equal on five and wider on one (Source: Saxo).</p> <p><strong>Weekly availability is a separate question from size.</strong> Only six of the twenty-one names list weekly minis, and that, not the multiplier, decides whether a scheduled event can be isolated in a short-dated contract rather than carried through a monthly. Multi-leg order support also varies by venue: the Milan-listed Ferrari mini does not currently support it at Saxo, so spreads are not available on that root.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Final thoughts</strong></h2> <p>Defining risk is a good habit and none of this argues against it. But a defined loss and a survivable loss are separate tests, and passing the first says nothing about the second.</p> <p>The multiplier is the term that connects them, and unlike volatility or direction it is not something a trader has to forecast. It is simply something to notice, because on the same underlying it may be available in more than one size.</p> <p>In our view the more complete question before an event position is not only whether the risk is defined. It is whether it is defined at a size that could be repeated. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor, and a smaller contract changes the scale of a loss rather than the chance of one.</p> <p><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative and not predictive.<br /> </em><em >The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.<br /> </em><em >At the time of writing the author holds no position in any of the instruments referenced in this article.</em></p> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<br /> </em><em >This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" 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href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>Volatility and event strategies</span> <span>Defined risk strategies</span> <span>Sell premium credit strategies</span> <span>Trading Strategies</span> <span>Option Strategies</span> <span>Bearish strategies</span> <span>Bullish strategies</span> <span>Range‑bound strategies</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms - 12 August 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:36:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A closed Strait of Hormuz kept crude bid while markets waited on the July inflation print</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks slipped before CPI, Europe held near records, Asia was mixed as a Korean chip rebound offset Hong Kong weakness.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Event-day volatility repriced sharply into the inflation print while the broader surface eased</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto held steady before the data while stablecoin and mining equities outperformed</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Crude extended a fifth straight advance and gold held near a two-month high</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: US treasuries rallied Tuesday and 3-year auction strong ahead of key US CPI release today.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: JPY and CHF weak, USD sideways ahead of key US July CPI release today</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until its demands are met</strong>, keeping a bid under crude for a fifth session. Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement" and even after both sides appeared to toughen their positions in the long-deadlocked negotiations</li> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US </strong><strong>July NFIB </strong><strong>S</strong><strong>mall </strong><strong>B</strong><strong>usiness </strong><strong>I</strong><strong>ndex rose 2.4 points to 99.8</strong>, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased. Meanwhile, </li> <li><strong>US July CPI lands today and may be the session's swing variable</strong>. Consensus looks for a 0.1% moM rise and 3.4% YoY rise in the headline, and 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY for the core CPI, both 0.1% lower than June.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications</li> <li><strong>1230 – US July CPI</strong></li> <li>1600 – USDA monthly WASDE report on US and world crops</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes</li> </ul> <p>During the day: Monthly Oil Market Reports from IEA and OPEC</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p>Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones also lost 0.3%, as fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz agreement lifted oil and investors waited for today’s US inflation report. Large-cap technology weakened, with Alphabet down 3.8% and Amazon 2.1% lower, while Apollo Global gained 6.3% after joining Nvidia’s new AI financing initiative. Sea Limited jumped 14.6% after quarterly revenue beat expectations, helped by Shopee and financial-services growth. After the close, strong AI-infrastructure results from CoreWeave and Super Micro kept spending demand in focus ahead of CPI. </li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 finished flat on Tuesday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to a record close and the DAX gained 0.3%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%. Higher oil prices supported energy shares, while a strong earnings season helped offset concerns that prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation elevated. ISS gained 4.4% on stronger-than-expected results, while Spirax Group fell 5.6% after maintaining its outlook and Legal & General lost 3.1% following a broker downgrade. US inflation data remained the next major catalyst. </li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities traded mixed on Wednesday, with South Korea leading sharply higher: the Kospi surged around 4%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% after reopening from a holiday and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3%. Korean memory stocks drove the regional strength as AI-demand optimism and expectations for stronger shareholder returns revived buying, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up around 5%. Mainland Chinese shares were steadier, while Hong Kong remained under pressure ahead of Tencent’s results. Investors also watched the yen near 159 per dollar and today’s US inflation report for the next signal on rates and risk appetite.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.28 | VIX FUTURES: 18.40 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (135.59) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~07:16 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Ahead of today's July CPI print the repricing was concentrated at the very front: <strong>VIX1D climbed 34%</strong> to 12.52, off a 7.52 open, while spot <strong>VIX eased to 15.28</strong> and <strong>VVIX </strong>slipped to 90.90. <strong>VXN </strong>fell 2.9% to 22.38, so demand for index convexity stayed subdued outside the event window. </li> <li>The cash curve held its contango, 12.52 at nine days against 18.91 at three months, with the front <strong>VIX </strong>future at 18.40 below the second at 19.80. <strong>SKEW </strong>eased to 135.59 while <strong>MOVE </strong>rose 3.3% to 77.9. <strong>SPX options imply 0.58%</strong> for today's expiry and 0.91% into Friday.</li> <li>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~63,766 (+0.36%) | ETHEREUM ~1,889 (+0.42%) | IBIT 35.94 (-0.80%) | ETHA 14.18 (+0.28%) | AS OF ~07:16 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crypto held steady into the CPI print, with spot little changed and <strong>DVOL easing to 35.89</strong>. US-listed proxies diverged: <strong>Circle </strong>rose 6.1% and the miners outperformed, led by <strong>Cipher </strong>and <strong>Riot</strong>, while <strong>IBIT </strong>slipped, <strong>MicroStrategy </strong>fell and <strong>Coinbase </strong>finished flat. </li> <li>On the structural side, the <strong>SEC has scheduled an open meeting for Friday</strong> to vote on proposing Regulation Crypto, a tailored offering framework for certain crypto investment contracts, which would be the agency's first formal crypto rulemaking under its current chair.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> Oil trades higher for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent near USD 90 and WTI around USD 84, as the Hormuz standoff and lower Russian refinery runs following Ukrainian attacks remain the dominant price drivers. In the latest round of verbal exchanges, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut until its demands are met, while Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement", even as both sides appear to have toughened their positions. On tap today are the monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC, with traders looking for updated assessments of supply disruptions and demand.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> Spot gold trades near USD 4,400, having found support during Tuesday's brief pullback to USD 4,356. Traders are now focusing on today's US CPI print to gauge whether the recent technical breakout above USD 4,200 has enough momentum to carry prices towards the next major hurdle, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500. ETF inflows extended to a fifth consecutive session, lifting total holdings to a six-week high and providing further evidence of renewed investor demand.</li> <li><strong>Industrial metals:</strong> COMEX copper trades steady around USD 6.65 per pound after last week run up to a record USD 6.8665, supported by a renewed squeeze in LME warehouse availability, a drop in production in Chile and Peru highlighting current production challenges, and continued US stockpiling ahead of a potential tariff decision on refined copper imports. Separately, Chile's government has allowed state-owned Codelco to retain 100% of its 2025 profit, approximately USD 2.42 billion, to fund strategic investments.</li> <li><strong>Grains</strong>: Today the USDA will release one of its most anticipated reports of the year, where US corn and soybean production will be the main focus. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures rebounded, underpinned by disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region amid attacks by Ukraine and Russia on each other's shipping routes</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries rallied Tuesday</strong><strong>, with the longest </strong><strong>30-year </strong><strong>yields pulling back from the brink after testing 19-year highs</strong><strong>. </strong>A strong auction of 3-year treasuries also improved sentiment ahead of today’s July US CPI release, and a 10-year treasury note auction awaits later in the day. After testing the recent high of the cycle since 2024 near 4.745% Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rolled over to close at 4.68%. </li> <li><strong>Back from a one-</strong><strong>day holiday on Tuesday</strong>, Japan’s government bond yields rose all along the curve Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield jumping more than two basis points to 1.645% by late in the trading day Wednesday, a new high since the mid-1990’s. The market is now pricing firmer odds (nearly 80%) of the next BoJ rate hike coming at the September 18 meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Price action across major currencies </strong><strong>was </strong><strong>moribund</strong><strong> Tuesday and early Wednesday as the market awaits the week’s key data point in the form of the July US CPI print later in the day today</strong>, with the JPY remaining on the weak side of the recent ranges even as odds firm for a September 18 BoJ rate hike. Sterling remains firm versus the US dollar and the euro. </li> <li><strong>The Swiss franc </strong><strong>remains on the weak side of the </strong><strong>weakest levels this year versus the euro </strong>as <strong>EURCHF</strong> continues to eye the cycle highs this week near 0.9370. The next area of note to the upside is perhaps the 0.9400 area.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI needs more than chips: Why Lumentum and the optics trade are lighting up</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 02:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Optics is becoming an increasingly important part of AI infrastructure.</span></strong><span> As AI clusters grow, more data needs to move quickly and efficiently between GPUs, servers, racks and data centres.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Lumentum is emerging as an important company to watch within the theme.</span></strong><span> AI-related demand, improving operating margins and Nvidia’s $2 billion strategic investment have increased attention on the company.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The theme extends beyond one stock.</span></strong><span> Coherent, Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, Ciena and others sit across the optical ecosystem, while the recently launched <strong>Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)</strong> provides a more diversified way to track the sector.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>The AI infrastructure investment cycle remains powerful, but it is also broadening.</span></p> <p><span>GPUs and memory still attract much of the attention, but increasingly large AI data centres also require faster networking, more power, cooling and greater connectivity.</span></p> <p><span>That is putting another part of the AI infrastructure buildout into focus: <strong>photonics and optical networking</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>AI systems can involve thousands of accelerators working together, creating huge amounts of traffic between chips, racks and data centres. Optical connections transmit data using light and can provide the high bandwidth and energy efficiency increasingly required as AI networks scale. Nvidia itself describes optical interconnects as important to improving the energy efficiency and resilience of large-scale AI networks.</span></p> <p><span>We believe that as AI spending expands from individual chips towards entire AI factories, networking and connectivity could take a larger role in infrastructure spending. That does not necessarily mean every optics company benefits equally, but it makes the sector increasingly relevant when assessing the broader AI value chain.</span></p> <p><span>Companies including <strong>Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics</strong> provide lasers, optical components and transceivers used to connect data-centre infrastructure.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Why optics is gaining investor attention</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>1. AI clusters are becoming larger and more connected</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The more accelerators an AI system uses, the more data needs to move between them. That is helping drive adoption of faster optical technologies, including the transition towards <strong>1.6T optical modules</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Lumentum said in its latest results that its cloud-module business was advancing 1.6T adoption, alongside growing demand for optical circuit switches and high-power lasers for co-packaged optics.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> The investment significance is that rising AI compute demand does not only require more processors. It can also increase the amount and sophistication of networking equipment required around those processors. The risk is that technology standards evolve quickly, creating winners and losers even within a growing market.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>2. Nvidia is putting billions behind the optical supply chain</span></strong></h3> <p><span>In March 2026, Nvidia announced separate <strong>$2 billion investments in Lumentum and Coherent</strong>, alongside multiyear supply and technology agreements (Source: Nvidia press release, 2 March 2026).</span></p> <p><span>For Lumentum, the agreement includes a multibillion-dollar Nvidia purchase commitment and future capacity rights for advanced laser components. Nvidia's agreement with Coherent similarly includes a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment covering advanced laser and optical networking products.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> Nvidia's investments provide a strong signal that optical connectivity is becoming strategically important to future AI architecture. But strategic investment by a major customer should not itself be treated as evidence of future investment returns. Customer concentration, execution and the pace of AI infrastructure spending remain important risks.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>3. Lumentum's earnings are starting to show the demand</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Lumentum's fiscal fourth-quarter results (Source: Lumentum Holdings Fiscal Q4 and FY2026 results, 11 August 2026) showed how rapidly the business is expanding.</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Revenue reached <strong>$1.01 billion</strong>, up <strong>109% year on year</strong>.</span></li> <li><span>GAAP operating margin rose to <strong>27.8%</strong>, while non-GAAP operating margin reached <strong>36.6%</strong>, versus 15.0% a year earlier.</span></li> <li><span>Management guided for fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of <strong>$1.225–1.275 billion</strong> and non-GAAP operating margin of <strong>39.5–40.5%</strong>.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The company also reported a <strong>$7.2 billion GAAP net loss</strong> in the quarter. This was driven primarily by a <strong>$7.8 billion one-off, non-cash loss on debt extinguishment</strong> related to the equitisation of certain convertible notes. Non-GAAP net income was $326.3 million.</span></p> <p><span>Growth is being supported by products including 1.6T cloud modules, optical circuit switches and high-power lasers used in emerging co-packaged optics systems.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> The key development is that the optics thesis is increasingly visible in reported revenue and operating margins rather than relying only on expectations around future AI demand. However, current growth rates should not simply be extrapolated: capacity additions, competition, pricing pressure or slower hyperscaler spending could change the earnings trajectory.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>4. US-China tensions could reshape the competitive landscape</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Trump administration is drafting restrictions on imports of new models of Chinese data-centre components, including optical transceivers (Source: Reuters, 4-5 August 2026). The measures remain under consideration and are not final.</span></p> <p><span>Chinese companies including <strong>Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink</strong> are important suppliers of optical modules to AI and cloud infrastructure.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> Restrictions could potentially shift some demand towards non-Chinese suppliers such as Lumentum and Coherent. But the outcome is not straightforward. Restrictions could also raise equipment costs, tighten supply, disrupt global supply chains or trigger further Chinese retaliation.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Who are the major global optics players?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The optical ecosystem spans lasers, transceivers, networking equipment, fibre and semiconductor components.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Company</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Role in the optics ecosystem</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Lumentum (LITE)</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Lasers, optical components, high-speed modules and emerging co-packaged optics technologies. Nvidia strategic partner.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Coherent (COHR)</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Diversified photonics supplier covering lasers, transceivers and optical networking. Nvidia strategic partner.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Zhongji Innolight</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Major global supplier of high-speed optical transceivers used in cloud and AI data centres.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Eoptolink</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Chinese supplier of high-speed optical modules for cloud and AI infrastructure.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Ciena (CIEN)</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Optical networking equipment and high-speed connectivity across data-centre and telecom networks.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Optical transceivers and laser technology serving hyperscale and networking customers.</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Corning (GLW)</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p ><span>Optical fibre and connectivity infrastructure supporting data-centre networks.</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong><span>Broadcom and Marvell</span></strong><span> also have exposure through networking and connectivity chips, although optics represents only one part of their broader semiconductor businesses.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> The companies have very different business mixes, geographic exposures and competitive positions. Investors assessing the optics theme therefore need to distinguish between relatively concentrated photonics businesses and diversified companies where optical connectivity is only one earnings driver.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>ETF exposure to the theme: Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF</span></strong></h2> <p><span>For investors assessing the sector but seeking exposure across several companies rather than a single stock, a new thematic ETF has also emerged.</span></p> <p><span>The <strong>Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)</strong> began trading on <strong>6 August 2026</strong>. It is an actively managed ETF focused on companies involved in technologies including optical transceivers, lasers, silicon photonics, optical interconnects and related photonic infrastructure. </span></p> <p><span>Its initial top five holdings are: Lumentum, Coherent, Eoptolink, Zhongji Innolight, and Ciena (Source: Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF fund information and holdings, data as of 6 August 2026).</span></p> <p><strong><span>Our view:</span></strong><span> LYTE can be viewed as a global photonics basket rather than a pure US reshoring or China-substitution theme. Its exposure to both US and Chinese companies provides diversification across the optical supply chain, but also means geopolitical restrictions affecting Chinese suppliers could create risks within the portfolio itself.</span></p> <p><em><span>Want broader exposure to the AI buildout? Explore our AI Value Chain stocks shortlist on <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/go/theme/ba6ece10-de6d-455e-bf77-7ede10cd577c">SaxoTrader</a> and <a href="https://www.saxoinvestor.com/investor/theme/ba6ece10-de6d-455e-bf77-7ede10cd577c">SaxoInvestor</a>, featuring Lumentum and other optics names alongside companies across semiconductors, memory, networking, power and cooling.<br /> </span></em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Investor takeaway</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The AI investment story is becoming broader than GPUs alone.</span></p> <p><span>Memory, power, cooling and data-centre infrastructure have already become important parts of the AI value chain. Optical networking is increasingly another layer worth watching as larger AI systems require greater volumes of data to move quickly and efficiently.</span></p> <p><span>But the risks remain significant. Hyperscaler capital expenditure could slow, customer concentration is high, technologies and standards are evolving quickly, US-China restrictions could disrupt supply chains, and high expectations can leave companies vulnerable when results disappoint.</span></p> <p><span>But for investors looking beyond GPUs while still participating in the <strong>AI infrastructure buildout, optics is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.</strong></span></p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>Micron Technology Inc.</span> <span>Marvell Technology Group Ltd</span> <span>Advanced Micro Devices</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>7 stocks reshaping America’s critical minerals push</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 02:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>On 7 August 2026, the US government announced <strong>$3 billion of new critical-minerals and battery projects</strong>, explicitly linking the investment to economic security, defence and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.</p> <p>Washington is increasingly treating rare earths, lithium, scandium and other strategic materials as <strong>national-security assets</strong>, with government funding, supply agreements, price support and even direct equity stakes being used to build non-China supply chains.</p> <span>For investors, the opportunity now sits across three areas:<br /> <ul> <li><strong>Existing producers</strong> that already have scale</li> <li><strong>Developers</strong> that could benefit from government financing</li> <li><strong>Processors and magnet makers</strong> needed to replace China further down the supply chain</li> </ul> </span> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Here are seven stocks to watch.</h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>1. MP Materials (MP)</strong></h4> <p>One of the clearest US rare-earth plays. Mountain Pass gives MP domestic mining exposure, while its push into processing and magnets makes it strategically important to Washington.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> magnet production, government contracts and downstream expansion.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>2. Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)</strong></h3> <p>Arguably the most important non-China rare-earth producer outside the US. Lynas already has operating scale and has deepened its strategic relationship with Washington through Pentagon-backed supply arrangements.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> US contracts, production growth and rare-earth pricing.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>3. Energy Fuels (UUUU)</strong></h3> <p>Offers exposure to both <strong>uranium and rare earths</strong>, two supply chains receiving growing Western policy support.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> rare-earth separation capacity, uranium prices and further government support.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>4. Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL)</strong></h3> <p>A higher-risk development story centred on scandium, which is used in aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing. US financing support has increased the strategic relevance of its Australian project.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> project financing, construction milestones and offtake agreements.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>5. Lithium Americas (LAC)</strong></h3> <p>Thacker Pass has become an important part of the US effort to secure domestic lithium supply. Government backing could help support the project through a weak lithium-price cycle.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> construction progress, lithium prices and financing needs.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>6. Teck Resources (TECK)</strong></h3> <p>Not a pure critical-minerals play, but its exposure to metals including germanium gives it an increasingly strategic role as defence companies look for alternatives to Chinese supply.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> long-term supply agreements and developments across its broader metals portfolio.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>7. USA Rare Earth (USAR)</strong></h3> <p>Interesting because the opportunity goes beyond mining into <strong>domestic magnet production</strong>. That could matter increasingly as governments focus on replacing China across the full value chain.</p> <p><strong>Watch:</strong> magnet-production ramp-up, funding and customer agreements.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Why the theme could have further to run</h2> <p>This is increasingly about building an entire supply chain, not simply digging more mines.</p> Government support is expanding across: <ul> <li>Mining</li> <li>Refining and processing</li> <li>Permanent magnets</li> <li>Defence stockpiles</li> <li>Long-term offtake agreements</li> </ul> <p>That creates a potential structural tailwind for companies that can deliver strategically important materials outside China.</p> <p>But the risk profiles vary sharply. <strong>MP Materials and Lynas already produce at scale</strong>, while companies such as Sunrise and Lithium Americas still depend much more heavily on project execution and financing.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Prefer a basket? ETFs to watch</h2> For investors looking to diversify company-specific risk: <ul> <li><strong>Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC)</strong> — one of the cleanest ways to express the non-China rare-earth theme.</li> <li><strong>Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)</strong> — broader exposure across critical minerals.</li> <li><strong>Global X Rare Earth & Critical Materials ETF (EART)</strong> — exposure across rare earths and materials linked to defence, energy storage and advanced technologies.</li> <li><strong>VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX)</strong> — broader global exposure, including Chinese producers.</li> <li><strong>VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals UCITS ETF</strong> — an alternative for investors preferring a UCITS structure.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Key risks</h2> <p>Strategic importance does not automatically translate into shareholder returns. Investors still need to watch:</p> <ul> <li>High development costs</li> <li>Financing and dilution risk</li> <li>Commodity-price weakness</li> <li>Permitting delays</li> <li>Continued Chinese dominance in processing</li> <li>Share prices running ahead of earnings</li> </ul> <p>The structural case is strengthening, but the key distinction remains between <strong>companies already producing strategic materials and those still trying to build the capacity.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </strong></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 12 August, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 01:27:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>SoH closed till Iran’s demands met. RBA holds rates with hawkish tone.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Sea limited rallied 16% after Q2 revenue beat </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>USD holds steady pre-CPI; JPY hovers near 160, AUD edges higher</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>WTI up a fourth straight session; spot gold at a two-month high</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasury yields fell while curve continues to steepen</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>RBA kept its policy rate at 4.35% as expected, with Governor Bullock striking a hawkish tone</span></strong></span><span> and warning that further tightening is “quite possible.”</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Iran says it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its demands are met</span></strong></span><span>, supporting high oil prices, though Pakistan’s defence minister says the US and Iran are reportedly “close to some sort of arrangement” despite the impasse.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The July NFIB small business index rose 2.4 points to 99.8</span></strong></span><span>, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>ADP showed private payrolls up 8,250 per week to July 25</span></strong></span><span>, versus a 23,000 July nonfarm job loss and 103,000 in downward revisions to May–June.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to 4.05m</span></strong></span><span> (vs 4.06m expected), after a 1.4% drop, with declines in the South and Midwest, flat sales in the West, and a 2% rise in the Northeast. Inventory fell 1.9% to 1.54m and the median price rose 2% y/y to $434,100.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Singapore’s Q2 GDP was revised up to 5.9% from 5.7%</span></strong></span><span>, below Q1’s 6.3%, supported by AI-related demand, while the broader index hit a record high on gains in communications, energy minerals, producer manufacturing, and financials.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US:</span></strong><span> The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Tuesday, extending its retreat from record highs, as the Strait of Hormuz deadlock pushed oil higher and investors held back ahead of today's CPI. The Nasdaq 100 also dropped 0.3%. Communication services led declines, with AppLovin falling sharply while Utilities and energy stocks outperformed. Weakness was concentrated in large-cap tech and the Mag 7 basket. <strong>Sea Ltd. ADRs were up approximately 16.7% on Tuesday</strong> after Q2 revenue beat and the company raised its profit forecast. <strong>After hours, CoreWeave surged after reporting quarterly sales that beat expectations and raising its revenue outlook. Super Micro Computer gained 7.5% after providing a revenue forecast that topped analyst estimates and doubling gross margins to 17.5%. Lumentum reported revenue growth of 110% to $1.01b, beating estimates while earnings came in at $3.23/share, from $0.88 a year ago. </strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU:</span></strong><span> European equities eked out a fresh record high on Tuesday despite a mixed session. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.24% to a new record close of 6,551.22, up for four consecutive sessions. The DAX gained 0.3% to 26,391.42, also at a 52-week high. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% to 10,844.19, dragged by AstraZeneca (-1.2%) and Spirax Group (-5.6%). The SMI dropped 0.4%, with Roche and Givaudan leading declines. Energy stocks led gains across the continent. Alcon rose 4.7% after a beat-and-raise result. ASML gained 2.7% and Siemens Energy rose 2.6%. Legal & General shares tumbled as bearish bets built.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia:</span></strong><span> Asian markets are set to open lower this morning, following Wall Street's decline and with CPI and Hormuz developments in focus. The Kospi opened 1.5% higher at 6,438.50 this morning, boosted by Samsung Electronics (+4.1%) on shareholder return expectations and SK Hynix strength. The STI gained 1.0% on Tuesday to 5,754.17, led by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+11%), extending its post-earnings rally. Japan's Nikkei was closed Tuesday for a public holiday and reopens today; USD/JPY is hovering near 159.29, approaching the key 160 intervention level. Hong Kong futures pointed to losses at the open, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 2.9% overnight. Tencent reports today, with JD.com due Thursday — both closely watched for AI spending signals. Foreign investors have been net sellers of Korea stocks (-$6.2bn this month) while turning net buyers of Taiwan (+$1.7bn).</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Wednesday: Tencent; Brinker International; </span>Cerebras Systems</li> <li><span>Thursday: Applied Materials; JD.com</span></li> <li><span>Friday: </span>Kweichow Moutai</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD </span></strong></span><span>steadied on Tuesday ahead of today's July CPI print. BofA analysts note the dollar is more sensitive to a downside surprise, which would "all but rule out" a September Fed rate hike. Consensus expects headline CPI at +0.1% m/m and core at +0.2% m/m. </span></li> <li><strong>USDJPY</strong> is hovering just below 160 — a level seen as a key intervention threshold. Reports indicate US support for coordinated yen intervention raises the stakes for traders short the yen, while also increasing pressure on the BOJ to tighten policy. (2)</li> <li><strong>AUD</strong> is the best G10 performer today (+0.06%), consolidating gains after RBA Governor Michele Bullock adopted a hawkish tone following Tuesday's hold decision, warning further tightening is "quite possible." </li> <li><strong>EUR</strong> faces a ceiling from elevated oil prices, which weigh on Europe's terms of trade. Higher energy costs are seen as stagflationary for the eurozone, limiting the currency's ability to rally even as rate differentials shift in its favor. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI </span></strong><span>settled near $83 a barrel (+1.3%), a fourth straight session of gains, as Iran reiterated plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. In early Asian trading Wednesday, WTI extended gains to $83.50, a fifth consecutive advance. Brent closed near $89. The Hormuz standoff remains the dominant price driver; the Trump administration expects supply disruptions of approximately 600,000 bpd through end-2027.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Spot gold</span></strong><span> climbed to a two-month high above $4,400 an ounce in early Tuesday trading before pulling back 0.5% to settle near $4,370 as traders balanced Hormuz deal prospects against the upcoming CPI print. The metal has gained over 3.6% over the prior two sessions, breaking above its 100-day moving average and attracting ETF inflows and technical buying.</span></li> <li><strong><span>LME copper</span></strong><span> is trading near record levels above $14,000 a ton, supported by a fresh LME warehouse squeeze, reports of a Congo copper concentrate export ban (which analysts note captures only a small portion of exports), and US stockpiling ahead of a potential tariff decision on refined copper imports. Chile's government allowed state-owned Codelco to retain 100% of its 2025 profit — approximately $2.42 billion — to fund strategic investments.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasuries </span></strong><span>ended with small gains despite oil settling higher. The 10-year yield fell approximately 1.7bps to 4.692% and the 30-year fell approximately 1.2bps to 5.242%. CTA funds hold record short bond positions — having tripled their underweight since end-July according to UBS — leaving the market acutely vulnerable to a sharp rally if today's CPI print comes in soft.</span></li> <li><span>The Treasury's $58 billion 3-year note auction on Tuesday drew solid demand, pricing at 4.291% — the highest yield for the tenor since February 2025 — with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71, above the prior auction's 2.60. </span></li> <li><span>The 5s30s spread has widened as the curve continues to steepen. The long end faces persistent upward pressure from term premium, large fiscal deficits, and heavy corporate issuance duration. JPMorgan has raised its year-end forecasts for 10- and 30-year yields. Treasury Secretary Bessent has reportedly taken steps over the past week aimed at easing pressure on the Treasury market after long-term yields surged to a 19-year high.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <br /> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oil surges, equity vol stays home - Options Brief - 11 August 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Crude jumped about 5% and dragged gold, silver and bond volatility up with it. Equity volatility went the other way. The question before Wednesday’s inflation print is which of the two has it right.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key findings</strong></h2> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.46 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (137.13) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.91</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>A 5% move in crude left the index flat and the sectors pulling apart.</strong> The S&P 500 closed at <strong>7,753.11</strong>, down <strong>0.06%</strong>, while energy producers gained <strong>5.73%</strong> and semiconductors lost <strong>2.28%</strong>. The eleven sector funds spanned a <strong>5.95-point</strong> range on a session the index barely moved.</li> <li><strong>The volatility bid went to gold, silver and bonds rather than to stocks.</strong> GVZ rose <strong>8.81%</strong> to <strong>27.90</strong> and silver volatility <strong>10.04%</strong> to <strong>50.95</strong>, while one-day S&P 500 volatility fell <strong>17.78%</strong> to <strong>9.34</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Wednesday’s inflation print is still not being bid.</strong> S&P 500 options price <strong>78 points</strong>, about <strong>1.00%</strong>, into Friday’s expiry, against the <strong>79 points</strong> that time decay alone would have left from Monday’s reading.</li> </ul> <p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Crude extended a four-session advance after fresh US demands in the Iran negotiations pushed a Strait of Hormuz reopening further out, reviving inflation questions two days before the July consumer price report. Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-rally-revives-inflation-worry-as-cpi-approaches---11-august-2026-11082026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take</a> covers the macro detail.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Monday 10 August close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,753.11</strong> (-0.06%), Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,621.80</strong> (-0.34%), Dow Jones <strong>53,981.41</strong> (-0.11%), IWM <strong>299.98</strong> (-0.52%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose <strong>0.04%</strong>, so the drag sat in a handful of large names rather than across the market. Nvidia fell <strong>2.86%</strong> and Intel <strong>4.1%</strong> on a USD 15bn share sale, while Berkshire Hathaway gained <strong>1.5%</strong>.</li> <li><span ><strong >Europe:</strong> Stoxx 600 <strong >660.46</strong> (+0.03%) at a record close, Euro Stoxx 50 <strong >6,535.63</strong> (+0.18%), DAX <strong >26,323.88</strong> (+0.02%). Energy led the region and rate-sensitive sectors lagged.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Asia (Tuesday session, in progress):</strong> Kospi <strong >6,382.18</strong> (+1.31%) as Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open, Hang Seng <strong >25,773.56</strong> (-0.63%), Hang Seng Tech <strong >4,857.12</strong> (-1.27%). Japan closed for Mountain Day.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent settled near <strong >USD 87.72</strong> and WTI near <strong >USD 82.13</strong>, each about <strong >5%</strong> higher on the session. Gold traded above <strong >USD 4,400</strong> for the first time in two months, with GLD up <strong >1.02%</strong>. The US 10-year yield rose <strong >5.6 basis points</strong> to <strong >4.705%</strong> and the 2-year to <strong >4.243%</strong>.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Volatility detail:</strong> VIX <strong >15.46</strong> (+3.76%), VIX1D <strong >9.34</strong> (-17.78%), VIX9D <strong >12.77</strong> (+6.77%), front-month VIX futures <strong >16.91</strong> at a <strong >1.45-point</strong> premium to spot, second month <strong >18.58</strong>, SKEW <strong >137.13</strong> (up from <strong >132.57</strong>), three-month implied correlation <strong >11.14</strong> (+6.30%), dispersion <strong >36.63</strong> (-0.30%).</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Market regime:</strong> Low Vol Bull, VIX <strong >15.46</strong>, 20-day realised volatility <strong >13.6%</strong> (stable), S&P 500 <strong >3.40%</strong> above its 50-day moving average.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a>.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 10 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> leaned to the upside, and it was concentrated. Roughly <strong>72%</strong> of confirmed-opening mega-cap premium went to calls, driven by repeated ask-side buying of one October strike corridor in a single large-cap software name. Downside in that complex was either sold or pushed out to 2027 and 2028 expiries. Semiconductors were the exception and looked defensive rather than directional, with long-dated puts opened across the major names while upside calls were sold.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> was more protective. Every large downside line in the broad index and ETF complex was structured as cover, spread across September, November, December and March expiries rather than concentrated in the near term, and energy premium ran roughly <strong>63%</strong> to puts even as the sector rallied. Metals went the other way, with about <strong>80%</strong> of a heavy day’s premium in gold calls. Much of the size crossed at mid, so the shape is readable and the initiating side is not.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Volatility surface - 11 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>15.46</strong> (+3.76%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>9.34</strong> (-17.78%)</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>12.77</strong> (+6.77%)</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.98</strong> · VIX6M <strong>21.14</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>22.76</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month <strong>16.91</strong> (-0.28%), a <strong>1.45-point</strong> premium to spot, down from <strong>2.05</strong> on Monday</li> <li>Second-month <strong>18.58</strong> (-0.09%), curve in contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>137.13</strong>, up from <strong>132.57</strong></li> <li>COR3M <strong>11.14</strong> (+6.30%)</li> <li>DSPX <strong>36.63</strong> (-0.30%)</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other volatility measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>92.51</strong> (+2.31%) · MOVE <strong>75.46</strong> (+4.76%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>23.04</strong> (+0.96%), <strong>1.49</strong> times VIX</li> <li>GVZ <strong>27.90</strong> (+8.81%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>The inflation print is being treated as a date, not an event.</strong></em> S&P 500 options price <strong>32 points</strong>, about <strong>0.41%</strong>, for today’s expiry and <strong>78 points</strong>, about <strong>1.00%</strong>, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Monday’s edition quoted <strong>91 points</strong> for that same Friday expiry, and flat-volatility decay alone would have left about <strong>79</strong> as the window shortened from four sessions to three. In our view the market may have priced in nothing extra for the consumer price report, even after a 5% move in crude.</li> <li><em><strong>The front end has almost no cushion left.</strong></em> VIX1D at <strong>9.34</strong> sits at <strong>0.60</strong> times VIX spot, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to <strong>1.45</strong> points from <strong>2.05</strong> while spot volatility itself rose. In our assessment a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail protection was bid while the body was not.</strong></em> SKEW rose <strong>4.56</strong> points to <strong>137.13</strong> and VVIX firmed to <strong>92.51</strong>, on a session when VIX spot sat below <strong>16</strong>. In our view that combination may point to hedging being placed in the wings rather than at the money, which is a different exposure from a general rise in fear.</li> <li><em><strong>The index is leaning on dispersion to stay calm.</strong></em> Three-month implied correlation held at <strong>11.14</strong> and dispersion at <strong>36.63</strong>, while the sector funds realised a <strong>5.95-point</strong> spread and the index moved <strong>0.06%</strong>. In our assessment index volatility may be sitting this low partly because offsetting single-name moves are absorbing the shock, which is a cushion that could thin quickly if a macro surprise moved everything the same way.</li> </ul> <p><em>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a>.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>12:00 CET</strong> US July NFIB small business optimism</li> <li><strong>14:15 CET</strong> US ADP weekly employment change</li> <li><strong>16:00 CET</strong> US July existing home sales</li> <li><strong>18:00 CET</strong> EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which carries more weight than usual with crude at these levels</li> <li><strong>19:00 CET</strong> US Treasury auctions 3-year notes</li> <li>Earnings: Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, Constellation Software</li> <li>The July US consumer price index lands Wednesday</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Monday priced a commodity shock without pricing an equity one. Crude moved about <strong>5%</strong>, bond and metals volatility followed it higher, and short-dated equity volatility went the other way. In our view that split may hold only as long as the sectors keep offsetting each other, and Wednesday’s inflation data is the most direct test of whether they will.</p> <p><em>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p> <p><em>Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.<br /> </em><em >The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/gold-runs-hot-equity-vol-cools---options-brief---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="7F29B7BD8CBA44319ECF9B2DDC3AA02A" data-type="Article">Gold runs hot equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-shouts-payrolls-whispers---options-brief---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="97FC21FF5A0F43D5BFE9CAFB5FBF5E1D" data-type="Article">Oil shouts payrolls whispers - Options Brief - 7 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-crack-vol-shrugs---options-brief---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="E21D637978BB49BEAA0C0273BEE7BD4B" data-type="Article">Chips crack vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/records-extend-hedges-build---options-brief---5-august-2026-05082026" data-id="07808BCD075B46999F981609A59A3507" data-type="Article">Records extend hedges build - Options Brief - 5 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/mega-cap-rally-chip-jitters---options-brief---4-august-2026-04082026" data-id="0BADED83418F490BAF48C8C1A50F11AE" data-type="Article">Mega-cap rally chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---oil-rally-revives-inflation-worry-as-cpi-approaches---11-august-2026-11082026" data-id="97412BDA68D148A18457A5715E4F576A" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Oil rally revives inflation worry as CPI approaches - 11 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---soft-payrolls-lift-stocks-as-oil-edges-higher---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="5F244A30FA2C441A9EBEF17B5BC92BE5" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Soft payrolls lift stocks as oil edges higher - 10 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold and silver rebound as buyers return, but the real test lies ahead</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Key Points:</h3> <ul> <li><span><strong>Gold and silver have rebounded after successfully resisting renewed selling pressure</strong>, with gold finding support below USD 4,000 and silver below USD 57 before softer oil prices, a less-hawkish-than-feared Fed, yen intervention and weak US employment data helped trigger a sharp recovery.</span></li> <li><span><strong>The demand picture is broadening again</strong>. Central banks and Asian investors continue to provide structural support, while Western ETF investors have started to return</span></li> <li><span><strong>The macro backdrop has turned more supportive, but remains fragile.</strong> A softer dollar and reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening have helped precious metals, but renewed inflation pressure, another oil-price surge or stronger US data could quickly revive rate-hike expectations.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Gold has defended the downside but has yet to confirm a renewed bull-market advance.</strong> Support around USD 4,200 is increasingly important, while the major upside test is once again focusing on the 200-day moving average, currently sitting just below USD 4,500.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Precious metals regain their footing</strong></h3> <p>The most notable development across precious metals is not the strength of last week's rebound, but the sell-off that failed to materialise beforehand when gold repeatedly resisted selling attempts below USD 4,000, while silver found buyers below USD 57. This resilience came despite several headwinds that had weighed heavily on the sector during the second quarter, including elevated bond yields, renewed concerns about US rate hikes driven by rising inflation amid surging fuel costs, a stronger dollar and subdued investment demand from Western asset managers.</p> <p>Gold had fallen sharply from its January record above USD 5,500, while second-quarter losses were the largest since 2013. Yet the inability of sellers to force a sustained break below USD 4,000 increasingly suggested that underlying demand remained strong enough to absorb liquidation from more rate-sensitive investors. <span >That resilience last week drove a 7% rebound in gold, its strongest weekly gain since January, while silver climbed back above USD 65. Friday's weak US employment report provided the latest catalyst as it reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and helped push the dollar lower.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Fed, yen intervention and jobs data change the mood</strong></h3> <p>The first important catalyst was the late-July FOMC meeting. The outcome was dovish relative to what had become increasingly hawkish market expectations rather than dovish in an absolute sense.</p> <p>With higher energy prices feeding inflation concerns, markets had moved towards pricing a meaningful probability of another rate increase. The Fed instead left its policy rate unchanged with three regional Fed presidents dissented in favour of tightening, underlining that inflation concerns have not disappeared. The resulting modest reduction in rate-hike expectations took some of the wind out of the dollar's sails, providing initial support to gold and silver.</p> <p>That was followed by the highly unusual US-Japan intervention episode after USDJPY surged towards a four-decade high near 164. Japanese authorities initially stepped in to support the yen, followed by intervention from the US Treasury through the New York Fed. The coordinated action briefly drove USDJPY down towards 155, adding further pressure on the dollar and providing another supportive impulse for precious metals.</p> <p>Some of that impact has since faded, with USDJPY returning towards 160, highlighting the difficulty of reversing currency trends through intervention alone when underlying interest-rate differentials remain wide. Taken together, the sequence has been supportive: a less-hawkish-than-feared Fed, a weaker dollar, coordinated yen intervention, softer oil prices and finally weaker US employment data.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Western investors begin to return</strong></h3> <p>Perhaps more importantly for the medium-term outlook, there are tentative signs that Western investment demand is beginning to recover. During much of the correction, central banks and Asian investors continued accumulating gold while many Western asset managers remained sellers, deterred by rising bond yields and the prospect of higher funding costs. This created an unusual divergence between strong underlying physical and official-sector demand and weak demand from the investors traditionally most sensitive to US monetary policy.</p> <p>That gap may now be starting to narrow after the World Gold Council reported that global physically backed gold ETFs attracted <strong>USD 3 billion of net inflows during July</strong>, ending two consecutive months of outflows. Total holdings rose by 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes, with European funds driving most of the buying while North American inflows remained modest. Western investors are therefore returning, but there has not yet been a broad-based repositioning into gold, with North America still the only major region to record ETF outflows during the first half of the year.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Central banks and Asia continue to provide the foundation</strong></h3> <p>While Western investment demand has fluctuated with interest-rate expectations, central-bank and Asian demand has remained an important source of underlying support. <span >The World Gold Council reported a sharp rebound in official-sector purchases during the second quarter after an unusually weak start to the year. Although central-bank buying during the first half remained below the extraordinary pace seen during recent years, the underlying motivation for reserve diversification appears intact.</span></p> <p>This matters because the experience of 2022–23 showed how central-bank and Asian demand can alter gold's traditional relationship with Western financial conditions. Aggressive central-bank tightening and rising real yields failed to produce the deep and prolonged correction many Western investors had expected, partly because physical and official-sector buyers repeatedly stepped in.</p> <p>A similar dynamic has helped establish a floor beneath gold during the latest correction. The question now is what happens if that structural demand is joined by a sustained return of Western portfolio flows. The combination would represent a materially stronger demand environment than the one that merely prevented gold from falling further.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Silver joins the rebound</strong></h3> <p>Silver has participated in the recovery, as per usual at a somewhat faster pace given liquidity constraints but overall the outlook remains somewhat different from gold's. The metal continues to benefit from its monetary characteristics and tends to amplify moves in gold when investment demand strengthens. At the same time, silver retains a sizeable industrial exposure, making its outlook more sensitive to global growth.</p> <p>The Silver Institute expects the market to record a <strong>sixth consecutive structural deficit in 2026</strong>, while investment demand is expected to remain strong. However, industrial fabrication is forecast to decline by around 2%, partly reflecting continued thrifting and substitution in photovoltaic applications.</p> <p>Silver therefore offers potentially greater upside participation should the precious-metals rally broaden, but also greater vulnerability if weaker US data develops into a more pronounced global growth slowdown.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>What could still go wrong?</strong></h3> <p>Despite the improving backdrop, several risks argue against becoming outright bullish just yet. The most obvious is inflation. The July Fed meeting reduced immediate tightening concerns, but three policymakers still wanted higher rates. A renewed acceleration in inflation could quickly rebuild expectations for another hike, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher and once again challenging investment demand for gold from rate sensitive investors.</p> <p>Oil and especially fuel prices remain particularly important in this respect. Lower prices helped the precious-metals recovery last week, but the latest renewed rise following fading hopes for a US-Iran agreement serves as a reminder that the energy shock has not disappeared. A sustained oil rally could revive inflation concerns and complicate the Fed's policy choices.</p> <p>There is also no guarantee that the recent ETF inflows represent the beginning of a sustained allocation shift. July's improvement was encouraging, but North American participation remains limited. Finally, stronger-than-expected US economic data could reverse some of the recent moves in yields, the dollar and rate expectations. The market has rapidly shifted away from expecting imminent tightening, leaving precious metals increasingly sensitive to incoming inflation and activity data.</p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Gold faces its next technical test</strong></h3> <p> <p><span data-me-change="delta">From a technical perspective, gold has, after finding support below USD 4,000, broken above recent resistance, with the former resistance area around USD 4,200 now acting as support. However, the bigger test sits around </span><strong>USD 4,500</strong><span data-me-change="delta">, where the declining 200-day moving average currently sits ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-June decline at USD 4,585. A sustained break above this zone would strengthen the technical outlook considerably and could open the way towards the 50% retracement near USD 4,690, followed by the 61.8% level around USD 4,860.</span></p> <p><span data-me-change="delta">Conversely, a rejection at or before the USD 4,500 area would suggest that the consolidation has further to run, potentially bringing the USD 4,000–3,960 support zone back into focus. For now, the precious-metals outlook is showing signs of improving, not least underpinned by ongoing structural demand that helped prevent a deeper correction, while the macro environment has become more supportive and Western investors are showing tentative signs of returning.</span></p> <p><span data-me-change="delta">That is a constructive combination, but not yet confirmation that the next sustained leg higher has begun. </span><strong>Gold has demonstrated where buyers are prepared to defend the market. The next test is whether they have sufficient strength to break the sequence of lower highs.</strong></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Key drivers for precious metals: rates, yields, dollar and investment flows - Source: Saxo & Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot gold with technical support and resistance levels - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Silver with technical support and resistance levels - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. 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data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a 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href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Platinum</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI.</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 09:15:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">US long yields are at cycle highs again ahead of key US data.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/pressures-from-macro-backdrop-building-ahead-of-us-cpi/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li>FT covers <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/98a8fd17-15b6-4f67-9cb4-825722b11348?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending</a></span> with some of the world's largest financil groups.</li> <li>FTAlphaville asks <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a0a07cce-6d19-4b1e-a73b-9855a06ba7b3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout</a></span>. The answer seems to be "a lot".</li> <li>The <span><a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate</a></span>, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>From Nvidia to Wall Street: who pays for the AI buildout?</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>AI’s next bottleneck may be capital</strong> as infrastructure spending outruns what technology companies want to fund alone.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>CoreWeave tests whether enormous contracted demand can translate into better cash economics</strong> as new capacity comes online.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Follow the AI dollar: </strong>chipmakers, cloud operators and financiers can grow quickly, but their returns may differ sharply.</span></span></p> </span></li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>Artificial intelligence (AI) keeps moving its bottlenecks. First, advanced chips were scarce. Then data-centre space, electricity and networking joined the queue. Now money is becoming harder to ignore.</span></p> <p><span>On 10 August 2026, Nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to create financing platforms designed to mobilise more than 500 billion USD of third-party capital for AI infrastructure. This is not Nvidia writing a 500 billion USD cheque. It is an attempt to make computing infrastructure easier for outside investors to finance.</span></p> <p><span>CoreWeave reports second-quarter results on 11 August after the US market closes, making it a useful live test. The specialist AI cloud company rents powerful computing infrastructure. Demand is enormous. The harder question is what it costs to serve it.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Wall Street joins the server room</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Nvidia’s move shows how the AI cycle is changing. Graphics processing units (GPUs) need buildings, power, cooling and networking before customers can use them.</span></p> <p><span>The money therefore travels through a long chain: capital into data centres, then Nvidia chips and networking, then cloud capacity sold to AI developers and enterprises. Every layer can grow, but the economics differ.</span></p> <p><span>Cheaper financing can help Nvidia customers build more infrastructure using its technology. Financiers can earn fees and interest. Cloud operators face a different burden: spend heavily today, then depend on utilisation and pricing to make those assets profitable tomorrow.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>CoreWeave turns demand into a financing question</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CoreWeave’s first quarter shows why revenue growth is an incomplete scorecard. Revenue more than doubled to 2.08 billion USD and contracted backlog reached 99.4 billion USD. Yet it spent 7.7 billion USD on property and equipment, carried roughly 24.9 billion USD of debt and recorded 536 million USD of net interest expense.</span></p> <p><span>For 2026, CoreWeave has indicated capital spending of roughly 31 billion to 35 billion USD, more than double 2025 levels. That spending creates value only if customers use the capacity, contracts turn into revenue on schedule and financing does not absorb too much profit.</span></p> <p><span>This is where return on invested capital (ROIC) helps. It asks how much operating profit a business produces from the money tied up in it. Booming revenue can still disappoint shareholders if every extra unit of growth requires even more capital.</span></p> <p><span>Five words matter in tonight’s results: demand, capacity, capital, cash and concentration. Is backlog becoming revenue? Is new capacity filling quickly? Is financing becoming cheaper? Is cash generation improving? How much depends on a few large customers?</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The same bill arrives in different envelopes</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CoreWeave is not alone. Nebius, another AI cloud provider, raised 775 million USD in secured debt on 17 July, backed by GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows. Super Micro Computer, which builds AI servers, announced up to 7 billion USD of equity and equity-linked financing in June to fund components for its order book.</span></p> <p><span>The structures differ, but the lesson is similar: rapid demand can consume cash before it generates it.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks: when the maths stops cooperating</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Three risks matter most. First, utilisation or pricing could weaken if capacity grows faster than demand. Watch backlog conversion and margins. Second, financing costs could stay high. Rising interest expense or repeated capital raises are warning signs. Third, hardware improves quickly. If older GPUs lose economic value faster than expected, replacement spending can erode returns.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Compare capital spending with revenue and margin progress</strong>, not revenue growth alone.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch backlog conversion. </strong>Contracts matter most when they become utilised capacity and cash.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Separate technology suppliers, infrastructure owners and financiers</strong>. </span>Their economics can diverge sharply.</li> <li><span><strong>Stress-test customer concentration and hardware cycles</strong> before extrapolating today’s demand.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bill becomes part of the story</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The AI race started as a scramble for chips. It became a race for data centres, power and networks. Nvidia’s new Wall Street partnerships show that capital is now becoming part of the infrastructure itself. CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro show why: extraordinary demand can require extraordinary funding long before the cash economics mature. </span></p> <p><span>For investors, the useful question is therefore no longer simply who is building the most AI capacity. It is who can turn that capacity into durable cash returns without continually asking lenders or shareholders to refill the tank. In the next phase of AI, scale will matter. So will the return on every dollar used to build it.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<br /> <em><br /> <span data-teams="true">The Author, Ruben Dalfovo, owns positions in Brookfield Asset Management.</span></em></em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVidia Corp.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Oil rally revives inflation worry as CPI approaches - 11 August 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 06:43:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: A four-day climb in crude revived inflation worry just as Trump hardened his terms with Tehran</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks edged lower, Europe held near records, while Asia was mixed as oil and inflation risks stayed in focus</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Equity vol stayed calm while the volatility bid moved into gold, silver and rates</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities sold off before an after-hours data-centre lease reset the miner story</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold hits two-month high despite renewed oil strength as deal remains elusive</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Global bond yields jumped on the crude oil price surge Monday</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Sterling firmer on labour market data, USD sideways, JPY lower</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts</strong>, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.</li> <li><strong>China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds</strong>, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.</li> <li><strong>A lesser known UK labour market survey, the REC-KPMG & S&P Global monthly report issued late Sunday, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner to the positive side </strong>as the overall Permanent Placements index rose to exactly 50, the first time in a non-contracting level since late 2022.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>1000 – US Jul. NFIB Small Business Optimism</li> <li>1215 – US ADP Weekly Employment Change for four weeks ending July 25</li> <li>1400 – US Jul. Existing Home Sales</li> <li>1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p>Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Monday (yesterday)</strong>: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,753.11 on Monday, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3% as a 5.0% jump in oil revived inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s US consumer price report. Nvidia fell 2.9% despite unveiling partnerships with six major financial groups to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure, while Intel dropped 4.1% after announcing plans for a $15 billion share sale. Berkshire Hathaway gained 1.5% after stronger-than-expected results and renewed share buybacks. Markets now turn to inflation data for the next signal on Federal Reserve policy. </li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 finished effectively flat at a record 660.45 on Monday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to 6,535.62, the DAX was flat and the FTSE 100 fell 0.4%. Energy led with a 1.3% gain as oil prices jumped, while telecoms and other rate-sensitive areas lagged. Plus500 rose 2.1% after reporting higher first-half underlying profit, while Coca-Cola HBC fell 4.8% after BNP Paribas cut the bottler to neutral. Investors next watch euro-area labour data and Wednesday’s US inflation report for rate guidance. </li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities were mixed on Tuesday, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.2% in afternoon trade, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.6% and Shanghai’s Composite off 0.1%, while Japan was closed for Mountain Day. Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open and helped lift Seoul, while higher oil prices kept inflation and geopolitical risks in focus across the region. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.5% after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 4.35%. Investors now look to Wednesday’s US inflation data, with energy prices adding another complication for central banks.</li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.46 | VIX FUTURES: 16.91 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (137.13) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Oil's four-day advance revived inflation concern, yet equity vol stayed subdued: <strong>VIX closed at 15.46</strong> and <strong>VIX9D </strong>at 12.77, the cash curve in firm contango out to <strong>VIX1Y </strong>at 22.76. <strong>VVIX </strong>at 92.51 and <strong>SKEW </strong>at 137.13 both firmed, consistent with steady demand for tail protection. </li> <li>The volatility bid sat outside equities. <strong>GVZ rose 8.8% to 27.90 and VXSLV 10.0% to 50.95</strong> as gold cleared $4,400, while <strong>MOVE gained 4.8% to 75.46</strong> and <strong>VXTLT </strong>8.2%.<strong> SPX options imply 32 points</strong>, 0.41%, for today's expiry and 78 points, 1.00%, into Friday 14 August, with July CPI on Wednesday the primary catalyst.</li> <li>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~64,060 +0.21% | ETHEREUM ~1,879 +0.38% | IBIT 36.23 -1.55% | ETHA 14.14 -2.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Crypto drifted while the equity complex sold off</strong>. Spot majors were broadly flat overnight, but US-listed proxies fell with Monday's risk tone: the bitcoin and ether ETFs both slipped, <strong>Coinbase </strong>lost 3.2% and <strong>Strategy </strong>2.7%, and every listed miner fell between 3.8% and 6.0%. Deribit's <strong>DVOL </strong>eased to 35.95. </li> <li>The miner weakness may prove dated. After the close, <strong>Riot Platforms was named as counterparty to a 20-year, 191 megawatt AI capacity lease with Anthropic worth about $9.1 billion</strong>, sending the shares up roughly 25% after hours. The Senate has scheduled a September procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil:</strong> <strong>Brent held near $88 a barrel</strong>, little changed overnight and <strong>up roughly 10% over the prior four sessions</strong>, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no sign of resolution, and after Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran, complicating the outlook for a deal. US energy equities were the clear winners of the Monday session, <strong>XLE up 4.66% and XOP up 5.73%</strong>, the largest sector moves on the tape. Natural gas eased 0.72% to $2.774.</li> <li><strong>Precious metals:</strong> <strong>Spot gold traded back above USD 4,400 </strong>for the first time in two months before softening in response to renewed headwinds from rising oil prices, firmer bond yields and a stronger dollar. Ahead of Wednesday’s key US CPI print, technical focused traders are now watching the 200-day moving average just below USD 4,500 to determine the strength of last week's breakout and 7% rally. The equity complex followed, GLD up 1.02%, GDX up 0.67% and GDXJ up 0.99%. </li> <li><strong>Industrial metals and grains:</strong> <strong>Copper is nearing a record above $14,000 a tonne on the LME</strong>, supported by warehouse tightness, US stockpiling ahead of a Section 232 decision, and a partial export ban on concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Meanwhile, Codelco, the world’s top producer saw a 14% drop in copper output last quarter, highlighting current supply challenges. On Comex, copper trades near USD 6.65 having seen some its recent buildup premium over LME being reduced in the last three sessions. </li> <li>More in our <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasuries sold off and the treasury yield curve steepened as crude oil prices spiked higher Monday. </strong>Treasury yields rebounded to levels trading before the soft US jobs report on Friday, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield trading back up over four basis points near 4.24% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose over six basis points to close Monday above 4.70% for only the second time this year. The US Treasury will auction 3-year notes later today.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The JPY weakened further late Monday and only firmed slightly in early Tuesday trading as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jump in global bond yields </strong>weighed on Monday. USDJPY traded as high as 159.36 late Monday before consolidating slightly in muted trading in Asia on Tuesday, still up almost 1% from Friday’s close of 157.76. EURJPY tested its 200-day moving average near 15.390 on Monday before easing back slightly.</li> <li><strong>The US dollar was only slightly firmer despite the jump in US treasury yields Monday</strong>, with majors outside of USDJPY little changed on Tuesday relative to early Monday levels.</li> <li><strong>Sterling rallied broadly Monday</strong>, sending <strong>EURGBP</strong> below 0.8550 by the close of trade for the first time in two weeks and <strong>GBPUSD</strong> above 1.3500, as a lesser known UK labour market survey, the July REC-KPMG report, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner (see more above).</li> <li><strong>Australia’s Reserve Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% as universally expected </strong>and AUD dipped slightly immediately after the decision as the MPC judged the policy rate to be “somewhat restrictive” and forecast slightly higher unemployment, though saying that the labor market is a “little tight” while vowing to raise rates if upside inflation risks materialize. </li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Berkshire is buying again: The latest portfolio moves investors should watch</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>Berkshire turned buyer again in Q2</span></strong><span>, purchasing about $23.5 billion of equities versus $3.7 billion of sales and ending 14 straight quarters as a net stock seller.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Alphabet and Berkshire itself were key Q2 moves</span></strong><span>, while recent quarters have also brought new exposure to Delta, Macy’s, OxyChem and Taylor Morrison.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The bigger signal is capital deployment:</span></strong><span> After years of building cash, Berkshire is increasingly finding opportunities across technology, travel, industrials and housing.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <p><span>Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter results delivered a clear message for investors: <strong>after years of building cash, the company is starting to put more of it to work.</strong></span></p> <p><span>In Q2, Berkshire bought around <strong>$23.5 billion of equities and sold just $3.7 billion</strong>, ending 14 consecutive quarters as a net seller of stocks. Cash and Treasury holdings remain enormous at roughly <strong>$365 billion</strong>, but the direction has changed.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>What changed in Q2?</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Alphabet: conviction rises</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Alphabet was the standout move. Berkshire invested another roughly <strong>$10 billion</strong> in Google’s parent during the quarter, taking it into Berkshire’s largest listed holdings.</span></p> <p><span>The investment gives Berkshire greater exposure to digital advertising, cloud and AI, while still fitting its traditional preference for businesses with dominant market positions, strong cash flows and durable competitive advantages.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the more interesting message may be that <strong>technology increasingly fits the Berkshire playbook when quality and valuation line up.</strong></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Berkshire itself: buybacks return</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Berkshire also repurchased around <strong>$4.5 billion of its own shares during Q2</strong>, followed by further purchases in July. It was Berkshire's biggest quarter of buybacks in nearly two years, and 19 times the $235 million it spent in the first quarter. </span></p> <p><span>That is an important signal: Berkshire only buys back shares when management believes they trade below conservatively estimated intrinsic value.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The bigger shift has been building</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Q2 may be the clearest sign that Berkshire is deploying capital again, but the change has been building over the past few quarters.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>OxyChem:</span></strong><span> Berkshire completed its roughly <strong>$9.4 billion acquisition</strong> of Occidental Petroleum’s chemicals business in January, adding another sizeable industrial business to the group.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Delta Air Lines:</span></strong><span> Berkshire disclosed a significant new position earlier this year, marking a notable return to airlines after exiting the sector during the pandemic.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Macy’s:</span></strong><span> A much smaller new holding, but still an interesting value-oriented addition given the retailer’s restructuring and asset story.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Taylor Morrison:</span></strong><span> In July, Berkshire completed its <strong>$6.8 billion acquisition</strong> of the US homebuilder, deepening its exposure to housing alongside Clayton Homes and its existing building-products businesses.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Together, the recent moves point to a broader mix of opportunities across <strong>technology, travel, industrials and housing</strong>.</span></p> <p><em><span>Want to explore the Berkshire portfolio stocks? See our <a href="https://social.saxo/ml52gbc?uuid=pgTAMmB">The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio</a> stocks shortlist for the key listed holdings.<br /> </span></em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Investor takeaway</span></strong></h2> <p><span>For investors who follow Berkshire, the most useful question is no longer simply <strong>“what does Berkshire own?”</strong></span></p> <p><span>It is increasingly <strong>“where is Berkshire putting new money?”</strong></span></p> <p><span>After several years when cash accumulation dominated the story, 2026 is starting to look different. Berkshire is buying equities again, acquiring whole businesses and repurchasing its own shares.</span></p> <p><span>That makes the latest portfolio changes particularly worth watching — not as trades to copy blindly, but as a source of ideas for investors looking for durable businesses, strong cash flows and long-term value.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Risk:</span></strong><span> Berkshire’s purchase prices, time horizon and ability to tolerate drawdowns can be very different from those of individual investors. Its portfolio is best used as an idea-generation watchlist rather than a blueprint to replicate.</span></p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Berkshire Hathaway</span> <span>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B</span> <span>Alphabet Inc.</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>Bank Of America</span> <span>Coca Cola</span> <span>Coca-Cola Co.</span> <span>The Coca-cola</span> <span>Chevron Corp</span> <span>Chevron Corp.</span> <span>Occidental Petroleum Corp.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 11 August, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 11 August, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>US-Iran deal grows uncertain after Trump demands compensation </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Nvidia teams with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, and Brookfield to raise $500B </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >USD strengthens broadly while yen weakens sharply </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Brent crude up ~10% over four sessions; spot gold tops $4,400/oz. </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >US Treasuries sell off for a third straight session </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong >Macro: </strong><span ></span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts</span></strong><span>, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds</strong><span >, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000</strong><span >, and May–June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000, revealing a weaker labor market than previously thought.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> The S&P 500 closed flat on Monday at 7,753.11, pulling back marginally from its all-time high set on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,605.36 and the Dow Jones slipped 0.1% to 53,975.98. Nvidia remained flat on reports that Wall Street banks and financial institutions are working with the chipmaker on a new initiative to invest $500b in AI infrastructure while financials outperformed, rising 0.3%. Energy stocks also gained as oil climbed. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, citing strong earnings and AI capex payoffs.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European stocks closed at a record high on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 660.45 and the Euro Stoxx 50 edging up 0.18% to 6,535.62 — a new record close. The DAX was broadly flat at 26,323.88. Energy stocks including TotalEnergies were among the top gainers as oil advanced, while rate-sensitive utilities and real estate lagged. ASML rose 1.0% and Qiagen led the DAX with a 5.5% gain. The FTSE 100 underperformed, falling 0.4% to 10,862.50, with British American Tobacco down 4.4% and Coca-Cola HBC dropping 4.8%. The SMI rose 0.6%, led by Richemont (+2.7%) and Roche (+1.6%).</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian equities were broadly mixed on Tuesday morning. The Kospi opened sharply lower, falling approximately 0.9–1.1% to around 6,229–6,240, weighed by weakness in chipmakers and broader risk-off sentiment tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff and higher oil prices. The South Korean won was among the worst-performing currencies. Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday on Tuesday, with no cash Treasury trading during Asian hours. Hong Kong and mainland China markets opened with focus on energy and chip-related names; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.7% on Monday. Taiwan ETFs saw record inflows last week of $538 million, driven by AI semiconductor optimism. MSCI ASEAN gained 0.2% to 827.57 on Monday.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Earnings this week:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>Tuesday: Super Micro; CoreWeave; Sea Ltd.; Cava Group; Lumentum<span></span></li> <li>Wednesday: Tencent; Brinker International; Cerebras Systems<span ></span></li> <li>Thursday: Applied Materials; JD.com<span ></span></li> <li><span ></span>Friday: Kweichow Moutai<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>JPY</strong> was Monday’s weakest G10 currency, falling 1% to 159.29 per dollar and giving back about half of its recent gains from the joint US–Japan intervention. Markets remain wary of further official action, while MUFG notes yen demand is subdued ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI release.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >USD</strong><span > advanced against most major and emerging-market currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose about 0.2%, helped by fading hopes for a Hormuz-related agreement and higher oil prices. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span >T</span>he offshore yuan eased around 0.1% to 6.7465 per dollar, despite the PBOC setting a stronger-than-expected fixing at 6.7884. <span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUD </strong><span >hovered around 0.7056 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting. With markets not fully pricing a 25 bp hike this year or into early 2027, analysts see AUD moves being driven more by yen cross dynamics than by RBA guidance in the near term.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Brent crude</strong> held near $87.70 a barrel, up approximately 10% over the prior four sessions, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no signs of resolution. WTI settled up 5.1% at $82.13 on Monday, its highest level in a week. The sustained advance is stoking inflation concerns and weighing on risk assets globally.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Spot gold</strong><span > rose above $4,400 an ounce, supported by geopolitical uncertainty around the Hormuz standoff and technical buying after bullion broke through its 100-day moving average. Gold surged more than 7% last week, its best weekly performance in months, following the weak US jobs print.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Copper </strong><span >nears record above $14,000/t on LME amid warehouse tightness, pre-Section 232 stockpiling, and a partial DRC concentrate export ban; a delayed US tariff decision keeps tail risks elevated.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US Treasuries</strong> sold off as oil prices surged for a third consecutive session, with yields rising 4–6 basis points across the curve. The 10-year yield rose approximately 5.9bps to 4.705% and the 30-year climbed 4.6bps to 5.249%. <span></span></li> <li>Monday saw 19 new investment-grade deals, the most in a single day since January. All eyes are on Wednesday's July CPI print, which will be the key near-term catalyst for rate-hike pricing.<span ></span></li> <li>Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly taking steps to cap long-end yields after 10-year rates recently hit a 19-year high. Separately, Japanese investors reportedly sold US Treasuries in July while buying European developed market bonds, according to Barclays data, adding to structural demand concerns for the long end.<span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" >Inspiration</a><span >.</span><strong > </strong><span > </span><span ></span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span ></span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span ></span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>US CPI: Hot print is the bigger FX risk</h1> <p>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <p>US July CPI lands<strong> Wednesday, 12 August at 8:30pm SGT.</strong> Consensus is looking for <strong>headline CPI at +0.1% m/m and core at +0.2% m/m</strong>, with annual inflation easing to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.<br /> <br /> </p> <span >The setup is unusually sensitive. Last week’s weak payrolls knocked back expectations for another Fed hike, but oil has since jumped roughly 5% as hopes for a US-Iran agreement faded. September hike odds are now around a coin toss. </span><strong >That makes 0.3%+ core CPI the danger number: the market may be more vulnerable to a hot surprise than a soft one.<br /> <br /> </strong> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 1: Hot CPI — buy USD, fade gold</strong></h3> <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> Core CPI <strong>0.3% m/m or higher</strong>, especially alongside a headline beat.</p> <p>That would bring September Fed-hike expectations back into play and likely push US yields and the dollar higher.</p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong>Positioning</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Below <strong>1.1500</strong> opens <strong>1.1450</strong>, then 1.1400. </li> <li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> <strong>160</strong> comes quickly into focus. But intervention risk rises sharply around these levels, so chasing the breakout carries event risk. Markets remain alert after the recent joint US-Japan action. </li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Higher real yields and USD could trigger profit-taking. Watch <strong>$4,375–4,350</strong>; below that, momentum starts to weaken. </li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 2: CPI in line — fade the first move</strong></h3> <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> Core <strong>0.2%</strong>, headline around <strong>0.1%</strong>, with no uncomfortable details underneath.</p> <p>This keeps the Fed debate unresolved: employment is weakening, but inflation remains too high to completely remove tightening risk.</p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong>Positioning</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Likely stays broadly <strong>1.1500–1.1600</strong>. </li> <li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> <strong>158–160</strong> remains the battleground. </li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Momentum stays constructive above <strong>$4,350</strong>, but a clean break higher probably needs yields to fall again. </li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Scenario 3: Soft CPI — sell USD, favour gold</strong></h3> <p><strong>Trigger:</strong> Core CPI <strong>0.1% or lower</strong>, particularly alongside a softer headline.</p> <p>That would reinforce the weak-payroll signal and could materially reduce expectations for another Fed hike.</p> <h4 class="heading--4"><strong>Positioning</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Above <strong>1.1600</strong> opens <strong>1.1650–1.1700</strong>. </li> <li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> A move below <strong>158</strong> could bring <strong>156–157</strong> back into focus. <strong>But chasing USD/JPY materially lower remains difficult.</strong> Japan still faces an uncomfortable fiscal and monetary backdrop: policy remains deeply negative in real terms and concerns over fiscal expansion continue to weigh on confidence in the yen. </li> <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Probably the cleaner expression. Above <strong>$4,450</strong>, momentum could extend towards <strong>$4,500</strong> as yields and the dollar fall. </li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Trader takeaway</strong></h3> <p><strong>Watch core CPI, not just the headline.</strong> A soft print completes the weak-jobs/soft-inflation bearish USD story, with gold arguably the cleaner trade. But the more disruptive outcome could be <strong>core CPI at 0.3% or higher</strong>: oil is rising again, Fed pricing has already been cut, and the market suddenly has to put a September hike back on the table.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Indices</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>South Korea</span> <span>Taiwan</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Theme Category - Equities</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Amazon</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>Facebook Inc</span> <span>Adobe</span> <span>Alphabet</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span> <span>Samsung Electronics</span> <span>China</span> <span>Alibaba</span> <span>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd</span> <span>Macro FX</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold runs hot, equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A jobs report that missed by more than a hundred thousand pushed stocks to records and pinned short-dated volatility to the floor. Gold went the other way entirely. Wednesday’s inflation print decides which one had it right.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key findings</strong></h2> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 14.90 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (132.57) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.95</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>A jobs miss produced records, not a scare.</strong> July payrolls fell <strong>23,000</strong> against roughly <strong>+83,000</strong> expected, and the S&P 500 closed at a record <strong>7,757.64</strong>, up <strong>0.62%</strong>. Short-dated equity volatility went the other way, with <strong>VIX1D</strong> down <strong>9.5%</strong> to <strong>11.36</strong>.</li> <li><strong>The week’s real volatility sat in metals.</strong> Gold posted its best week since January, <strong>+7.3%</strong>, and gold volatility rose while equity volatility fell, with <strong>GVZ</strong> up <strong>3.14%</strong> to <strong>25.64</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Wednesday’s inflation print is not being bid.</strong> SPXW options price <strong>91 points (1.17%)</strong> into Friday’s expiry, against the <strong>92 points</strong> that flat-volatility decay alone would have left.</li> </ul> <p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>The July employment report landed on Friday well below consensus, with the prior two months revised down a combined 103,000, and markets read a weakening labour market as removing the near-term case for a Federal Reserve rate increase. Odds of a September hike fell below <strong>50%</strong>. More detail in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---soft-payrolls-lift-stocks-as-oil-edges-higher---10-august-2026-10082026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Market Quick Take, 10 August 2026</a>.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Friday 7 August close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>7,757.64</strong> (+0.62%, a record), Nasdaq 100 <strong>29,722.30</strong> (+1.19%), Dow Jones <strong>54,042.39</strong> (+0.28%), small caps +1.11%. High-beta led: disruptive-growth funds <strong>+4.89%</strong>, software <strong>+3.29%</strong>, semiconductors +1.96%. Atlassian rose <strong>35.3%</strong> on guidance, Trade Desk fell <strong>21.9%</strong>.</li> <li><span ><strong >Europe:</strong> Stoxx 600 <strong >660.26</strong> (+0.31%) at a record and a fourth straight weekly gain, DAX <strong >26,319.45</strong> (+0.69%), CAC 40 +0.17%, FTSE 100 -0.29%. Kingspan gained <strong >17.8%</strong> on a raised profit forecast.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Asia (Monday session, in progress):</strong> Nikkei +2.0%, Kospi <strong >6,302.24</strong> (+0.69%), Hang Seng <strong >25,853.69</strong> (+0.72%), while the CSI 300 fell <strong >0.52%</strong> after July Chinese consumer inflation slowed to <strong >+0.5%</strong> year on year.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong> Brent <strong >$84.43</strong> (+1.05%), WTI <strong >$78.77</strong> (+0.75%), gold futures <strong >$4,387.70</strong> after last week’s <strong >7.3%</strong> advance, silver +0.54%, gold miners <strong >+7.11%</strong> and junior miners <strong >+7.51%</strong> on Friday. US 10-year <strong >4.654%</strong>, 2-year <strong >4.212%</strong>, 30-year <strong >5.204%</strong>.</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Volatility detail:</strong> VIX <strong >14.90</strong> (-1.65%), VIX1D <strong >11.36</strong> (-9.48%), VIX9D <strong >11.96</strong> (-5.53%), front-month VIX futures <strong >16.95</strong> at a <strong >2.05-point</strong> premium to spot, second month <strong >18.55</strong>, SKEW <strong >132.57</strong>, three-month implied correlation <strong >10.48</strong> (+11.37%), dispersion <strong >36.74</strong> (-5.06%).</span></li> <li><span ><strong >Market regime:</strong> Low-volatility bull, VIX <strong >14.90</strong>, 20-day realised volatility <strong >14.0%</strong> and stable, S&P 500 <strong >3.51%</strong> above its 50-day moving average.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 7 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> leaned to calls on premium without leaning to direction. Mega-cap technology took <strong>60.5%</strong> of confirmed-opening premium in calls, yet the densest single line was an October put block in the largest chip name, crossed at mid, so the side is unreadable. Semiconductors carried a clear credit tone, with the session’s biggest line sold rather than bought and put selling running alongside it. Crypto-linked equities were the exception, where long-dated deep in-the-money call structures took <strong>$529.6m</strong> of <strong>$609.5m</strong> in opening premium.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> was two-sided at the index level and one-sided in metals and duration. Broad index premium of <strong>$2.18bn</strong> split <strong>58.4%</strong> to calls, but long-dated index puts and long-dated index calls were both bought at the offer while near-dated upside was sold. Metals gave the cleanest directional read of the day, with a November gold position rolled to higher call strikes and near-dated miner upside bought. Rates ETF flow leaned to higher bond prices, calls taking <strong>$14.7m</strong> of <strong>$18.7m</strong>. Defensives, biotech, energy and financials produced no readable stance.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 10 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX <strong>14.90</strong> (-1.65%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>11.36</strong> (-9.48%)</li> <li>VIX9D <strong>11.96</strong> (-5.53%)</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.72</strong> · VIX6M <strong>21.02</strong> · VIX1Y <strong>22.66</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month <strong>16.95</strong>, a <strong>2.05-point</strong> premium to spot, narrower than Friday’s 2.15</li> <li>Second-month <strong>18.55</strong>, front-to-second ratio <strong>0.915</strong>, contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>132.57</strong>, down from <strong>134.73</strong></li> <li>COR3M <strong>10.48</strong> (+11.37%)</li> <li>DSPX <strong>36.74</strong> (-5.06%)</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other vol measures</h4> <ul> <li>VVIX <strong>90.42</strong> · MOVE <strong>72.03</strong> (-5.37%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>22.82</strong> (-4.72%), <strong>1.53</strong> times VIX</li> <li>GVZ <strong>25.64</strong> (+3.14%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>A quiet session, then a manageable week.</strong> SPXW options price a <strong>40-point</strong> move, about <strong>0.52%</strong>, for today’s expiry and <strong>91 points</strong>, about <strong>1.17%</strong>, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. <em><strong>In our view that pair may describe a market expecting Wednesday’s inflation print to be absorbed rather than to reset the trend.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>Inflation risk is being priced down, not up.</strong> Friday’s edition quoted <strong>103 points</strong> for this same 14 August expiry. Flat-volatility time decay alone would have left roughly <strong>92 points</strong> as the window shortened from five sessions to four, and the market sits at <strong>91</strong>. <em><strong>In our assessment the shortfall may suggest that taking payrolls risk out of the front end mattered more than putting a consumer price index print into it, which is an unusual configuration ahead of a major release.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>The front end has very little cushion left.</strong> VIX1D at <strong>11.36</strong> sits at <strong>0.76</strong> times VIX spot, the cash curve runs in steep contango out to VIX3M at <strong>18.72</strong>, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to <strong>2.05</strong> points from 2.15. <em><strong>In our view a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the absolute level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.</strong></em></li> <li><strong>Breadth improved, and the index gave up its dispersion cushion.</strong> Three-month implied correlation rose <strong>11.37%</strong> to <strong>10.48</strong> while dispersion fell <strong>5.06%</strong> to <strong>36.74</strong>, on a session where the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained <strong>0.70%</strong> against the cap-weighted index’s <strong>0.62%</strong>. <em><strong>In our assessment an advance of that shape may leave index volatility more exposed to a common macro shock and less able to lean on offsetting single-name moves.</strong></em></li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>08:00 CET</strong> Norway July consumer price index</li> <li><strong>Tuesday 06:30 CET</strong> Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, expected to hold</li> <li><strong>Wednesday 14:30 CET</strong> US July consumer price index, the week’s main event, with the core rate expected at its lowest annual reading since March 2021</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong> US producer price index, plus results from Applied Materials, Adyen and Netease</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong> US retail sales and preliminary University of Michigan sentiment</li> <li>Reporting today: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The week’s volatility bid moved to metals</strong></h2> <p>Equity volatility fell across the front end on Friday while gold volatility rose, which is the one relationship from last week that has not yet reverted. Gold gained <strong>7.3%</strong> on the week, its strongest since January, and GVZ closed <strong>3.14%</strong> higher at <strong>25.64</strong>, more than <strong>1.7</strong> times VIX. The miners moved further than the metal, with the GDX gold-miner ETF up <strong>7.11%</strong> and the GDXJ junior-miner ETF <strong>7.51%</strong> on Friday alone. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a>.</p> <p><em><strong>In our view the combination of a softer dollar, lower front-end yields and continued official-sector buying may help explain why the options market is currently willing to pay more for gold optionality than for index optionality.</strong></em> Oil volatility remains the outright outlier at <strong>3.75</strong> times VIX, with the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>The market has taken payrolls risk out of the front end without putting inflation risk back in, <em><strong>which in our view may leave short-dated volatility priced for a benign Wednesday from an already low base.</strong></em> Meanwhile the options market is paying up for gold rather than for the index, on the session after a record close, <em><strong>and in our view that is the more useful signal of the two.</strong></em> Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p> <p><em>The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/oil-shouts-payrolls-whispers---options-brief---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="97FC21FF5A0F43D5BFE9CAFB5FBF5E1D" data-type="Article">Oil shouts payrolls whispers - Options Brief - 7 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-crack-vol-shrugs---options-brief---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="E21D637978BB49BEAA0C0273BEE7BD4B" data-type="Article">Chips crack vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/records-extend-hedges-build---options-brief---5-august-2026-05082026" data-id="07808BCD075B46999F981609A59A3507" data-type="Article">Records extend hedges build - Options Brief - 5 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/mega-cap-rally-chip-jitters---options-brief---4-august-2026-04082026" data-id="0BADED83418F490BAF48C8C1A50F11AE" data-type="Article">Mega-cap rally chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/iran-stands-down-tech-splits---options-brief---3-august-2026-03082026" data-id="243F4972B21D4CF79A8CE2B9509FBC7C" data-type="Article">Iran stands down tech splits - Options Brief - 3 August 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---soft-payrolls-lift-stocks-as-oil-edges-higher---10-august-2026-10082026" data-id="5F244A30FA2C441A9EBEF17B5BC92BE5" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Soft payrolls lift stocks as oil edges higher - 10 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---hormuz-doubts-lift-oil-as-payrolls-loom---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="3A44FB804796403A8110BA6ABFCE1C7B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Hormuz doubts lift oil as payrolls loom - 7 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Dollar bulls retreat as metals attract fresh demand</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 4 August 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending <span data-start="186" data-end="201">4 August 2026</span>.</span></li> <li><span>The speculative USD long slumped the most in six years as BOJ and Fed intervention supported a 72% reduction in the yen short. However, positioning remained distinctly dollar bullish, with speculators maintaining net short positions across all tracked currencies except the Mexican peso. </span></li> <li><span ><span data-start="2" data-end="61">Precious and industrial metals attracted renewed buying</span>, with gold length rising ahead of its technical breakout, silver and platinum exposure increasing sharply, and the copper net long reaching a 5½-year high amid tightening supply outside the US. </span></li> <li><span > <p><span><span data-start="259" data-end="333">Energy and grains saw reduced exposure despite persistent supply risks</span>, while sugar stood out as short covering gathered pace ahead of a near-10% rally driven by tighter supply expectations in Brazil and India and rising El Niño concerns.</span></p> </span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Yen rebound hits dollar longs</strong></h3> <p> </p> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>The latest reporting week to 4 August, covers a period in which the dollar’s recent advance came to an abrupt halt after late-July intervention by the BOJ and Fed helped support the Japanese yen. By the end of the reporting week last Tuesday, the dollar index had fallen 1.5%, while the yen had strengthened almost 4% against the dollar.</span></p> <p><span>Responding to the sharp reversal, speculators cut bullish dollar bets by USD 13 billion, the largest one-week reduction in six years, leaving the overall net long at a still-elevated USD 37.3 billion.</span></p> <p><span>As highlighted in the table, dollar selling was broad-based but dominated by a 72% reduction in the yen net short to 45.5k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.6 billion, following USD 9.4 billion of net buying during the week. All other currencies except CAD also saw net buying, with the euro net short reduced by 20% to 58.1k contracts, or USD 8.4 billion. Despite the sizeable adjustment, positioning remained distinctly dollar bullish, with speculators maintaining net short positions across all tracked currencies except the Mexican peso.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 data-section-id="whjwy9" data-start="0" data-end="76">Commodities</h3> <p><span> <p><span>A mixed week across commodity sectors saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index fall 1.2% during the reporting week to 4 August, as weakness in energy and grains was only partly offset by strength in precious and industrial metals and soft commodities. Hedge funds responded to these developments by cutting length in energy, most notably Brent and natural gas, as well as grains led by soybeans and wheat, while increasing demand for all metals and some softs. </span></p> </span><span ></span></p> <p><span>Energy positioning continues to highlight relatively subdued conviction in higher prices despite multiple war-related disruptions to supplies from Russia and the Middle East. In contrast, precious metals saw renewed buying, while copper length reached a multi-year high.</span><span ></span></p> <strong> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Precious metals attract renewed buying</h3> </strong><span >Hedge funds increased exposure to precious metals even before the technical breakout in gold that occurred after the reporting period. The renewed buying comes amid continued strong underlying demand. The World Gold Council reported a fivefold increase in central bank purchases in Q2 compared with Q1, while robust physical demand from China remains another important pillar of support.<br /> </span> <p><span>The resilience of official-sector and Asian demand echoes 2022–23, when aggressive central bank rate hikes failed to trigger the deep and prolonged gold correction many Western investors had anticipated. It also highlights a continued divergence between East and West. While central banks and Asian investors accumulate gold, many Western asset managers have remained cautious amid elevated bond yields and funding costs.</span></p> <p><span>Looking ahead, mounting fiscal debt concerns, a softer dollar, continued central bank demand and growing speculation that the Fed under Kevin Warsh may refrain from further rate hikes in our opinion all support a constructive medium-term outlook. A recovery in Western investment demand, combined with sustained official-sector and Asian buying, could provide the catalyst for the next leg higher. After months of sideways trading, focus has shifted to whether gold can sustain its breakout. Support at USD 4,200 is key and in our opinion needs to hold in order for the breakout to hold, while a break above USD 4,383 may pave the way for a move towards the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions and changes across key commodity futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Key positioning changes:</span></h3> <p><strong><span>Crude oil</span></strong><span>: Renewed price weakness drove a 25k reduction in the combined crude net long to 266k contracts, following 171k of net buying during the previous three weeks. Despite persistent geopolitical supply risks, positioning continues to signal limited conviction in a sustained price rally.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Natural gas</span></strong><span>: The net short reached a 27-month high at 89k contracts as ample supply and inventories well above seasonal averages continued to weigh on prices.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Gold</span></strong><span>: Ahead of Wednesday’s technical upside break, managed money accounts had already lifted their net long to a January high of 132k contracts. Short covering played a significant role, with gross shorts slashed by 42% to a 19-month low of just 9.4k contracts.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Silver and platinum</span></strong><span>: The silver net long jumped 32% to a still relatively subdued 11k contracts as fresh longs were added, while platinum length surged 71% to a two-month high of 10.9k contracts.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Copper</span></strong><span>: A 4.5% rally during the reporting week, which subsequently extended to a record high, helped lift the net long to a 5½-year high of 77.8k contracts. The market is increasingly caught between the US, where imports continue to surge as traders capture tariff-related arbitrage opportunities, and China, where demand for imported refined copper is accelerating amid constraints on mined supply and scrap availability.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Grains</span></strong><span>: Except for corn, the sector saw broad selling, although the combined 73k reduction was relatively modest compared with the 542k contracts speculators had added during the previous five weeks. Most notable was a sharp increase in the CBOT wheat net short following the late-July price slump, despite ongoing concerns about Black Sea shipping disruptions and the reliability of exports from Russia and Ukraine.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Sugar</span></strong><span>: Ahead of the near-10% surge since last Tuesday, hedge funds had already cut their net short by 31% during a reporting week in which prices rose 3.4% - a warm-up for the rally that followed. Prices are being supported by disappointing Brazilian production prospects, tightening availability in India, where stocks have reportedly entered the new season near a 30-year low, and rising El Niño-related supply risks. Together, these developments have forced an increasingly uncomfortable short position to be covered.</span></p> <p><span>Elsewhere: The cotton net long reached a 16-month high, while six consecutive weeks of net selling cut the live cattle net long to a 22-month low.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Energy sector - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold, silver, platinum and copper - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Agriculture - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that this group tends to <span>anticipate</span>,<span> accelerate</span>, and <span>amplify</span> price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>17 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-war-weather-and-backwardation-drive-returns-17072026" data-id="CCED991DE76C428EA4911E7FC7210B0D" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly war weather and backwardation drive returns</a><br /> 16 July 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/wheat-surges-as-war-weather-and-short-covering-collide-16072026" data-id="71A1A986CE6840B2B64663513AA4A6B6" data-type="Article">Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide</a><br /> 15 July 2026: <a 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data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Space earnings preview: can Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile turn orbit into a business?</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile test two routes to commercial space</strong>: integrated infrastructure and satellite connectivity.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Execution now matters more than proof of concept</strong>. Investors need manufacturing, launch cadence and customer conversion.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>The space economy is shifting towards recurring services</strong>, where utilisation, margins and cash matter more than spectacular hardware.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span >Space has spent years proving the physics. Now it needs to prove the economics.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span>Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both report second-quarter updates on 10 August 2026. They sit at different points in the space economy, but face the same question: can impressive engineering become a repeatable business?<br /> <br /> <br /> </span><strong >Rocket Lab wants the whole stack</strong></p> </h3> <p><span>Rocket Lab launches rockets, builds satellites and components, and operates missions for customers.</span></p> <p><span>First-quarter revenue reached a record USD 200 million, backlog exceeded USD 2.2 billion and its contracted launch manifest topped 70 missions. On 4 August, it also won a USD 397 million US Space Force contract covering satellites, launch and operations.</span></p> <p><span>The proposed USD 8 billion acquisition of Iridium pushes the model further. Iridium brings an operating communications network and more than 2.5 million subscribers. If completed, Rocket Lab would add something rockets alone cannot provide: recurring communications revenue.</span></p> <p><span>The question is whether vertical integration improves economics or simply creates more things to fund. Watch Space Systems profitability, backlog conversion, launch cadence and progress on Neutron, its larger rocket still targeted for a debut later in 2026.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>AST needs the factory to catch up</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network designed to deliver broadband directly to ordinary mobile phones through existing mobile operators.</span></p> <p><span>BlueBirds 8 to 10 launched on 17 June, followed by BlueBirds 11 to 13 on 5 August. AST still targets roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. With 13 BlueBird satellites now launched, the remaining schedule is demanding.</span></p> <p><span>That makes earnings per share almost beside the point. The useful numbers are operational: satellites completed, launch cadence, cost per satellite and cash consumed.</span></p> <p><span>Investors should also listen for the timing of commercial service and whether operator partnerships begin producing meaningful revenue. AST had nearly 60 mobile-network partners at its first-quarter update. Those operators already own the customer relationship. AST does not need to build the distribution network, but it does need enough satellites to make the service reliable.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>From missions to infrastructure</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX offers the clearest template. Launch is valuable, but it also supports Starlink, a connectivity service built on satellites that SpaceX can manufacture and launch itself. Rocket Lab is moving towards a broader version of that model. AST starts with connectivity and uses telecom operators for distribution.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the space economy is therefore becoming less about selling individual missions and more about building infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>That shifts attention towards fairly boring measures such as utilisation, manufacturing costs, recurring customers, margins and cash generation. Boring is often what happens when an industry starts becoming real. For a broader view, our <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/theme/c1aa2336-22f3-4dcd-abb3-68076ac33288" target="_blank">space economy shortlist</a> highlights companies across launch, satellites, communications and aerospace infrastructure that could benefit as space becomes a more commercial industry.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Execution remains the obvious risk. Delayed rockets, slower satellite production or launch bottlenecks can push revenue further away. Financing also matters because both models require heavy spending before their full economics are proven. Repeated schedule slips, rising cash needs or commercial-service dates moving further out would be useful warning signs.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate technical milestones from economic milestones.</strong> A launch matters more when it unlocks paying customers.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Track cadence, not isolated events.</strong> Repetition shows whether operations are becoming industrial.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch funding alongside growth. </strong>Expansion matters less if cash requirements rise even faster.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare business models.</strong> Recurring services help only when infrastructure is reliable and well used.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Now the business model has to land </span></strong></h3> <p><span>Launches make headlines. Businesses need repeat customers. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are now being tested on that second part. Rocket Lab must show that launch, manufacturing and communications can reinforce each other economically. AST must show that satellite production can move fast enough for telecom partnerships to become a working network. </span></p> <p><span>Neither story depends on one quarter, and both remain capital intensive. But the direction is clearer. As space matures, investors may spend less time asking whether the technology can reach orbit and more time asking whether customers will pay repeatedly once it gets there. The rockets still need to land. Increasingly, so does the business model.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: Tepid reaction to soft US jobs data. US CPI up next.</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Volatility is hard to come by, which also keeps JPY lower.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4>The latest</h4> <p><strong>A soft US July non-farm payrolls report Friday confirmed other weak numbers, but the Household Survey confused as the US unemployment rate dropped.</strong> Friday’s payrolls numbers were ugly indeed, as we got a -23k drop in payrolls versus +80k expected and the net revision of the prior two months of data was worse still at -107k. This largely confirmed the soft ADP number from earlier in the week and the suddenly sub-50 July ISM Services Employment Index. But the Household Survey used to compile the unemployment rate confused slightly, as the rate dropped to 4.1% versus the expectation for an unchanged reading of 4.2%. But that was partially explained by another 0.1% drop in the participation rate, which has been plummeting this year, though a significant chunk of the decline was due to a one-off statistical methodology adjustment. Evidence suggests that most of the drop-off is due to less labor force participation among 55+ workers, so the old “discouraged workers” explanation doesn’t really hold It is likely mostly due, therefore, to bulge of boomers in the demographic profile that are leaving the workforce Still, it is remarkable that, if we ignore the pandemic-impacted 2020-21 calendar years, we now have the lowest total labor force participation rate since the 1970’s, which is the decade that saw the largest acceleration in women entering the labor market.</p> <p><em><strong>Bottom line (s):</strong> The recent US dollar move lower was mostly driven by the coordinated intervention in the Japanese yen. This Friday jobs report didn’t meaningfully change the relative yield spreads between the US and global peers, so there is little for currency traders to go on here until we get more significant data surprises (Wednesday’s US CPI release is the most important next data point) or more forceful policy moves from the BoJ and Takaichi government, in the case of Japan (see below).</em></p> <p><strong>The JPY doesn’t want to stay up.</strong> Friday showed us that the JPY is a very tough currency to strengthen, as discussed in the look at the EURJPY chart below. One would have thought that Friday’s weak US jobs data was just what the doctor ordered to get the JPY higher, and yet the punch lower in USDJPY to below 157.00 after the data release was completely backfilled and here we are today with USDJPY and other JPY crosses near or at local highs. I am still constructive on the Japanese yen, but it could continue to prove tough to turn higher if global yields and risk sentiment don’t turn more consistently lower as well. The US CPI data Wednesday is the next test for JPY crosses and could drive even more JPY weakness in the very short term if it comes in hot.</p> <p><strong>Chart focus: EURJPY.</strong><br /> Treasury Secretary Bessent’s notice that the US had sold Euros versus the Japanese yen rather than selling USDJPY caught European counterparts by surprise. The US move to sell EURJPY rather than USDJPY was largely symbolic and served two purposes. First, it was a signal that the US is willing to back up Japan’s efforts to strengthen its currency, as coordinated intervention is read by the market as far more impressive than Japan going it alone. Second, the US wanted to avoid suggesting anything about the broader US dollar level (and importantly, therefore, not wanting to spook global holders of US treasuries to lower their exposures to said treasuries or alter their plans to continue buying them in the future.) And yet here we are with EURJPY backing up above 183.00. For the Ichimoku-based picture here, the local resistance might be the cloud area as well as the lagging span line (green) hitting the old price bars, but recent action has shown little respect for cloud levels, so there is very little precision here – but bears need for the 183.00-185.00 zone to provide resistance at some point.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>RBA Tuesday (tomorrow): no expectations.</span></strong><span> The RBA meeting this time around should be short on drama after the Q2 CPI tempered expectations for further rate rises from the bank for now, with only around 15 basis points of further policy tightening priced in through the remainder of this calendar year’s RBA meetings.</span></p> <p><span><strong><span>FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </span></strong></span><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p><span>The yen’s “trending” move from intervention has now been cut more than in half over the last week as we have yet to see a follow-up wave of strength. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc and the US dollar are weak, but conviction is weak here until we have a clearer read on the yen. Gold and silver have impressed with the recent sharp rally, on the other hand. </span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span>The Gold and silver rallies are significant and have moved the trend positive – watching for whether these maintain above the former resistance and eventually take on the 200-day moving averages. Note that the oldest trends in the top table of most traded pairs are USDCHF and EURCHF – can these persist if we finally get a follow up wave of JPY strength? The initial JPY blast higher on intervention only triggered a one-day adjustment in CHF crosses lower on the perceived general threat to carry trades </span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Soft payrolls lift stocks as oil edges higher - 10 August 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:04:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><span><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></span><span> </span></h1> <ul> <li><span><strong>Macro</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>A weak July payrolls print reset the Fed debate</span><span>,</span><span> inflation data now carries the week</span></li> <li><span><strong>Equities</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>US and European equities ended at records after weak jobs data, while Asia traded mostly higher as rate fears eased.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Volatility</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>Equity vol compressed into the payrolls relief while oil and gold vol stayed elevated</span></li> <li><span><strong>Digital Assets</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>Exchange and treasury names led Friday's advance while spot drifted sideways overnight</span></li> <li><span><strong>Commodities</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>Gold holds firm after best week since January; Oil rebound stalls</span></li> <li><span><strong>Fixed Income</strong></span><span>: </span><span>US yields lower after soft jobs data, but the move </span><span>was choppy</span><span>.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Currencies</strong></span><span>:</span><span> </span><span>JPY weaker despite drop in global bond yields Friday. USD quiet after Friday’s sell-off.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Macr</strong></span><span><strong>o</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span><strong>As reported Friday, </strong></span><span><strong>US </strong></span><span><strong>non-farm payrolls fell </strong></span><span><strong>-23k </strong></span><span><strong>in July </strong></span><span><strong>versus +80k expected</strong></span><span>, </span><span>and</span><span> </span><span>data for the </span><span>previous </span><span>two </span><span>months were revised </span><span>-103k </span><span>lower, confirming </span><span>other </span><span>signs of a weakening labour market. </span><span>The U</span><span>nemployment </span><span>Rate </span><span>fell to 4.1%</span><span> versus an unchanged reading of 4.2% expected</span><span>, but </span><span>this was seen as </span><span>partly</span><span> </span><span>due to a 0.</span><span>1</span><span>%</span><span> </span><span>decline in the</span><span> labour-force participation</span><span> rate</span><span> to a new post-pandemic low</span><span>. W</span><span>age growth slowed to 3.2%</span><span> YoY</span><span>, reinforcing recent weakness in ISM services employment and ADP payrolls.</span><span> </span><span>Attention now turns to Wednesday’s CPI report </span><span>after the jobs report knocked lowered rate hike expectations,</span><span> </span><span>and how markets respond to an expected drop in the core to the lowest y/y reading since March 2021</span></li> <li><span><strong>Iran ruled out direct talks with the US</strong></span><span>, citing violations of the interim peace pact, while saying a deal with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was “very close”. Tehran continues to demand an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and compensation before fully reopening the Strait, while Trump said Washington would likely wait for mounting economic pressure to soften Iran’s stance</span><span>.</span></li> <li><span><strong>US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signalling a desire to contain long-term yields</strong></span><span> after they surged to a 19-year high, with recent currency intervention and changes to Treasury’s bond-sale guidance </span><span>possible </span><span>reducing </span><span>long-end </span><span>supply</span><span> </span><span>suggesting growing concern about rising borrowing costs amid persistent inflation and nearly USD 2 trillion annual budget deficits.</span></li> <li><span>More in our </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></span></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span><strong>M</strong></span><span><strong>acro</strong></span><span><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></span></h4> <ul> <li><span>0600 – Norway Jul. CPI</span></li> <li><span>0130 (Tuesday) – Australia NAB Business survey</span></li> <li><span>0430 (Tuesday) Australia RBA Cash Target Announcement</span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span><strong>Earnings events</strong></span></h4> <p><span>Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:</span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong>Monday</strong></span><span>: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile</span></li> <li><span><strong>Tuesday</strong></span><span>: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer</span></li> <li><span><strong>Wednesday</strong></span><span>: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent</span><span>, Nebius Group</span></li> <li><span><strong>Thursday</strong></span><span>: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Equities</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span><strong>USA</strong></span><span>: The </span><span><strong>S&P 500</strong></span><span> rose 0.6%, the </span><span><strong>Dow </strong></span><span>added 0.3%, and the </span><span><strong>Nasdaq 100</strong></span><span> gained 1.2% on Friday, after July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 and reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate increase. </span><span><strong>Atlassian </strong></span><span>surged 35.3% after beating quarterly expectations and guiding revenue above forecasts, </span><span><strong>Airbnb </strong></span><span>jumped 17.4% after a revenue beat, while </span><span><strong>Trade Desk</strong></span><span> sank 21.9% after guiding third-quarter revenue below expectations. Investors now turn to Wednesday’s July inflation report for the next major signal on rates. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Europe</strong></span><span>: The</span><span><strong> STOXX 600</strong></span><span> rose 0.3% to a record, while Germany’s </span><span><strong>DAX </strong></span><span>gained 0.7%, France’s </span><span><strong>CAC 40</strong></span><span> added 0.2% and the </span><span><strong>FTSE 100</strong></span><span> advanced 0.3%, as upbeat earnings and softer US jobs data extended the rally. Technology led the region, while </span><span><strong>Genmab </strong></span><span>climbed 6.5% after raising its full-year outlook and Kingspan surged 17.8% after lifting its profit forecast on strong data-centre demand</span><span>,</span><span> </span><span><strong>Munich Re</strong></span><span> fell 1.4% despite higher quarterly profit. Markets now watch renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and this week’s US inflation data. </span></li> <li><span><strong>Asia</strong></span><span>: Japan’s </span><span><strong>Nikkei </strong></span><span>traded 2.0% higher and South Korea’s </span><span><strong>KOSPI </strong></span><span>gained 0.</span><span>6</span><span>%, while China’s</span><span><strong> CSI 300</strong></span><span> fell 0.7% as the region followed Friday’s Wall Street rally unevenly. Japanese and Korean technology shares led the rebound as the weak US jobs report reduced fears of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, while Chinese equities lagged after July consumer and producer inflation came in below forecasts, highlighting soft domestic demand. Higher oil prices limited some of the enthusiasm as investors continued to monitor uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.</span></li> <li><span>More in our </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></span></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Volatility</strong></span></h2> <p><span><strong>VIX 14.90 | VIX FUTURES: 16.95 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (132.57) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>After Friday's soft payrolls print, equity volatility compressed across the front end. Friday's cash close left </span><span><strong>VIX at 14.90</strong></span><span>, </span><span><strong>VIX1D </strong></span><span>down 9.5% to 11.36 and </span><span><strong>VIX9D </strong></span><span>down 5.5% to 11.96. </span><span><strong>VVIX </strong></span><span>firmed to 90.42, while three-month implied correlation rose 11.4% off a very low base.</span><span> </span></li> <li><span>The cash curve sits in steep contango to </span><span><strong>VIX3M </strong></span><span>18.72, with </span><span><strong>SKEW </strong></span><span>normal at 132.57 and </span><span><strong>MOVE </strong></span><span>down 5.4% to 72.03. Commodity vol remains the outlier: </span><span><strong>GVZ </strong></span><span>25.64, </span><span><strong>OVX </strong></span><span>55.80, still 3.7 times VIX. </span><span><strong>SPXW prices 40 points (0.52%) today</strong></span><span> and 91 points (1.17%) into Friday, with Wednesday's CPI the catalyst.</span></li> <li><span>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span><strong>Options Insights</strong></span></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Digital Assets</strong></span></h2> <p><span><strong>BITCOIN ~64,940 +0.14% | ETHEREUM ~1,917 +0.40% | IBIT 36.80 +0.85% | ETHA 14.47 +0.49% | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong>Crypto equities carried Friday's session while spot has drifted sideways since</strong></span><span>. Softer US jobs data and the resulting retreat in rate-hike odds framed the move. </span><span><strong>Coinbase </strong></span><span>rose 5.6%, </span><span><strong>Circle </strong></span><span>5.4% and </span><span><strong>Strategy </strong></span><span>3.3%, and </span><span><strong>Iren </strong></span><span>added 8.7%, but pure miners diverged: </span><span><strong>Cipher </strong></span><span>fell 5.7%, </span><span><strong>Marathon </strong></span><span>5.3% and </span><span><strong>CleanSpark </strong></span><span>3.5%.</span><span> </span></li> <li><span>US spot bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $1 billion last week, their strongest since April and third-best since October. The rebound followed a $116 million exploit of a hardware wallet, cited as a possible contributing factor.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Commodities</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span>The </span><span><strong>Bloomberg Commodity Index</strong></span><span> has started August slightly higher, with a rotation out of energy more than offset by renewed demand for metals, particularly precious metals following last week’s weak US jobs report and gold’s technical breakout. Agriculture is also contributing positively, led by strength across soft commodities, notably sugar and cocoa. Overall, the index, which tracks 25 major commodities, is up 23.4% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500 and trailing only the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Gold</strong></span><span> trades higher after surging 7.3% last week, its best weekly performance since January. The rally was supported by weaker US economic data reducing the risk of near-term rate hikes, mounting US fiscal debt concerns, a softer dollar and continued demand from central banks and Asian investors. After months of sideways trading, focus has shifted to whether gold can sustain its breakout. Support at USD 4,200 is key in our opionion, while a break above USD 4,383 </span><span>may</span><span> pave the way for a move towards the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Oil</strong></span><span> trades near unchanged, with traders showing limited appetite for another push higher as Iran and Oman remain short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi militants claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea. The risk of renewed Middle East escalation remains elevated, but the muted price response highlights competing headwinds from weak Chinese demand and the release of emergency reserves.</span></li> <li><span>More in our </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></span></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Fixed Income</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span><strong>US T</strong></span><span><strong>reasuries first r</strong></span><span><strong>allied in t</strong></span><span><strong>he wake of the </strong></span><span><strong>weak US jobs report</strong></span><span><strong> on F</strong></span><span><strong>riday</strong></span><span><strong>, but </strong></span><span><strong>some of</strong></span><span><strong> the </strong></span><span><strong>reaction was </strong></span><span><strong>era</strong></span><span><strong>sed</strong></span><span><strong> later in the</strong></span><span><strong> se</strong></span><span><strong>ssion</strong></span><span>. The front</span><span> end of </span><span>the US yield curve </span><span>stuck </span><span>more significantly</span><span> lower as the market </span><span>lowered the </span><span>expe</span><span>ctations of F</span><span>ed policy </span><span>tightening. The </span><span>benc</span><span>hmark </span><span>2-year</span><span> treasury </span><span>yi</span><span>eld</span><span> fell </span><span>about </span><span>four basis points</span><span>, ending the week at </span><span>4.205</span><span>% after</span><span> having dipped </span><span>as low as </span><span>4.15</span><span>% </span><span>briefly after the relea</span><span>se of the </span><span>jobs repor</span><span>t. The bench</span><span>mark 10-year yield</span><span> </span><span>fell three basis</span><span> points </span><span>a</span><span>nd is trading nea</span><span>r 4.65% </span><span>early Monday.</span><span> </span><span>The odds of a 25-basis point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting fell below 50%.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Japan</strong></span><span><strong>’s governm</strong></span><span><strong>ent bond yields </strong></span><span><strong>hit a new </strong></span><span><strong>multi</strong></span><span>-</span><span>d</span><span>ecade</span><span> high </span><span>Mo</span><span>nday </span><span>after the Bank of Japan released its Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 meeting</span><span>, which said that inflation may pick up</span><span>, and with one member saying that </span><span>the pace of rate hikes may need to accelerate</span><span>.</span><span> Th</span><span>e ben</span><span>chmark 2</span><span>-year JGB</span><span> yield</span><span> nearly</span><span> traded as high a</span><span>s 1.63% </span><span>early </span><span>Monday before rolling </span><span>back </span><span>below </span><span>1.62%</span><span>, wher</span><span>e it </span><span>close</span><span>d on Friday</span><span>.</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong>Currencies</strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><span><strong>The JPY remained weak</strong></span><span> despite the drop in US yields on Friday and the BoJ Summary of Opinions sounding more hawkish and briefly driving Japan’s short-dated yields higher early Monday. USDJPY traded</span><span> early Monday near </span><span>158.40 and up 0.4% from Friday’s close</span><span> after the </span><span>sharp</span><span> dip below 157.00 on Friday in the knee-jerk reaction to the US jobs report. EURJPY </span><span>traded at new highs for the week just below 183.00 by early Monday, up 0.3% from Friday’s close</span><span>.</span></li> <li><span><strong>The US dollar </strong></span><span><strong>was largely </strong></span><span><strong>directionless in early trading Monday after </strong></span><span><strong>falling </strong></span><span><strong>sharply on Friday in reaction to the soft US jobs data</strong></span><span><strong>. </strong></span><span>EURUSD </span><span>continued to consolidate from its Friday high of 1.1581, trading 1.1550 early Monday.</span></li> <li><span><strong>The Australian dollar is </strong></span><span><strong>trading sideways ahead of the RBA decision Tuesday, </strong></span><span>with </span><span>the </span><span>market looking for the bank to hold its fire on further rate increases for now after a soft CPI number for </span><span>Q2</span><span>. </span></li> <li><span>More on currencies in our dedicated section: </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></span></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oil shouts, payrolls whispers - Options Brief - 7 August 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Crude jumped, oil volatility jumped harder, and the S&P 500 barely moved. Ahead of the July jobs report, the options market is charging remarkably little to sit through it.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key findings</strong></h2> <p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 15.15 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (134.73) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.30</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>A second down session, and crude did the driving.</strong> The S&P 500 fell <strong>0.18% to 7,709.96</strong> and the Dow lost <strong>0.85% to 53,885.10</strong> as Brent extended a two-day rebound to <strong>$83.46</strong>, while soft memory forecasts took the DRAM index down <strong>4.28%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>VIX1D was the only volatility measure on the board to rise.</strong> It added <strong>3.55% to 12.55</strong> on a day when VIX fell <strong>4.17% to 15.15</strong> and VIX9D dropped <strong>8.19%</strong>. Even after that rise it still sits below both.</li> <li><strong>Oil volatility took what equity volatility gave up.</strong> OVX jumped <strong>11.38% to 57.34</strong> and its ratio to VIX rose <strong>16.24% to 3.79</strong>, the largest single move anywhere on the volatility board.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Renewed doubts over a Strait of Hormuz settlement pushed Brent back above <strong>$83</strong> and knocked equities lower for a second session, leaving the July employment report at <strong>14:30 CET</strong> as the week’s decisive number. Further macro detail sits in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">daily macro coverage</a>.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Thursday 6 August close):</strong> S&P 500 <strong>-0.18% to 7,709.96</strong>, Dow <strong>-0.85% to 53,885.10</strong>, Nasdaq 100 <strong>-0.39% to 29,373.33</strong>. Sandisk and Western Digital both sank on underwhelming forecasts and Fiserv slumped after cutting full-year guidance, while Hertz jumped <strong>29%</strong> on earnings, <strong>Microsoft rose 2.54%</strong> as the standout large cap and Alphabet fell <strong>1.29%</strong> ahead of a $25 billion bond sale. After hours, Airbnb added roughly <strong>8%</strong> and AppLovin fell about <strong>18%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> Euro Stoxx 50 <strong>+0.39% to 6,502.57</strong>, Stoxx 600 <strong>+0.16% to 658.20</strong>, DAX <strong>+0.05% to 26,140.13</strong> and the CAC 40 <strong>+0.35% to 8,699.71</strong>. Banks firmed, the SX7E up <strong>0.50%</strong>, while Belgium’s BEL 20 fell <strong>0.27%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Asia (Friday session, in progress):</strong> South Korea led the decline, the <strong>Kospi down 1.47% to 6,203.61</strong> and the US-listed Korea ETF off <strong>2.97%</strong>, tracking the overnight memory selloff. China went the other way, the CSI 300 <strong>+0.83% to 4,689.96</strong> and the Hang Seng <strong>+0.15%</strong>. OCBC’s second-quarter profit rose <strong>22% to S$2.2 billion</strong> and UOB’s <strong>10% to S$1.48 billion</strong>, both ahead of consensus.</li> <li><strong>Commodities and rates:</strong> <strong>Brent +1.18% to $83.46</strong> and <strong>WTI +0.98% to $78.05</strong>, extending Thursday’s rebound, though crude is still down roughly <strong>5%</strong> on the week. Gold futures <strong>+0.60% to $4,325.50</strong> after Wednesday’s 4.1% jump, silver <strong>+1.59%</strong>, and copper <strong>+0.57%</strong>, near a record after the Democratic Republic of Congo halted concentrate exports. The US 10-year yield sat at <strong>4.682%</strong> and the 30-year at <strong>5.230%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low-volatility bull, VIX <strong>15.2</strong>, 20-day realised volatility <strong>13.9%</strong> (stable to falling), S&P 500 <strong>+2.94%</strong> above its 50-day moving average.</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 7 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 6 August. This describes yesterday’s positioning, not how markets are trading today.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow</strong> Puts took <strong>59.1%</strong> of confirmed opening premium across the mega-caps, but almost all of it sat in deep in-the-money Tesla and Apple lines crossed at mid, which is the signature of financing and roll mechanics rather than downside conviction. In our assessment, the one cleanly directional package was a large Microsoft September upside call position, while Nvidia’s tape ran explicitly two-sided into its late-August results.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow</strong> On the broad index tape, puts carried <strong>78.1%</strong> of premium with the same deep in-the-money, mid-market shape, and where an aggressor side was visible at all it leaned toward premium selling rather than protection buying. Metals were the exception and the only high-conviction read of the session, with two flagged opening gold structures both leaning long. Defensive and biotech ETF tapes were close to empty.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 7 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li><strong>VIX 15.15</strong> (-4.17%), a fourth straight session in the mid-teens.</li> <li><strong>VIX1D 12.55</strong> (+3.55%), the only measure on the board to rise.</li> <li><strong>VIX9D 12.66</strong> (-8.19%), now barely above the one-day measure.</li> <li>VIX3M 18.69 · VIX6M 20.91 · VIX1Y 22.56, an upward-sloping curve throughout.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Front-month VIX futures 17.30</strong> (+1.20%), a <strong>2.15 point</strong> premium to spot, up from 1.82 the prior session.</li> <li><strong>Second-month VIX futures 18.65</strong> (+0.59%), keeping the curve in contango.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew & correlation</h4> <ul> <li><strong>CBOE SKEW 134.73</strong> (+1.06% from 133.32), holding in the normal zone.</li> <li><strong>COR3M 9.41</strong> (+0.86%), still near the low end of its recent range.</li> <li><strong>DSPX 38.70</strong> (-4.56%), a second consecutive decline.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Other volatility measures</h4> <ul> <li><strong>VVIX 88.72</strong> (-1.89%) · <strong>MOVE 76.12</strong> (+3.45%).</li> <li><strong>VXN 23.95</strong> (-0.83%), at 1.58 times spot VIX.</li> <li><strong>GVZ 24.86</strong> (-2.85%), easing as gold consolidated, against <strong>OVX 57.34</strong> (+11.38%).</li> </ul> <p><em>Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 7 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> </h2> <ul> <li><strong>Today’s payrolls session is priced barely above an ordinary one.</strong> SPXW options imply a <strong>44.8-point (0.581%)</strong> move for today’s expiry, against the <strong>43 points (0.56%)</strong> quoted for yesterday’s same-day expiry in the previous edition. Both are derived from at-the-money option pricing on the same chain at the same tenor, so the gap approximates the event premium alone: roughly <strong>13 index points, about 0.17%</strong>. In our view, that may point to a market treating the jobs report as a scheduled data point rather than a binary risk.</li> <li><strong>VIX1D rose while everything else fell, which is what event premium looks like.</strong> VIX1D gained <strong>3.55%</strong> on a board where VIX fell <strong>4.17%</strong>, VIX9D <strong>8.19%</strong> and VXN <strong>0.83%</strong>. Its ratio to spot VIX moved from <strong>0.767 to 0.828</strong> in a single session. In our assessment, that isolated lift may show premium landing on the day the data lands and nowhere else along the curve.</li> <li><strong>The futures curve is not following the front end down.</strong> Spot VIX gave up <strong>0.66</strong> points while front-month VIX futures added <strong>0.205 to 17.30</strong>, widening the futures premium to spot from <strong>1.82 points to 2.15</strong>, with the second month at <strong>18.65</strong>. In our view, a market letting near-dated volatility decay while paying up for September may be pricing this calm as temporary rather than structural.</li> <li><strong>Volatility keeps changing address.</strong> OVX rose <strong>11.38%</strong> and MOVE added <strong>3.45% to 76.12</strong> while every equity gauge fell. DSPX dropped <strong>4.56% to 38.70</strong> and COR3M sat at <strong>9.41</strong>, both near the low end of their recent ranges. In our assessment, that mix may describe a market pricing commodity and rate risk while index risk stays quiet, rather than one shared macro factor moving everything together.</li> </ul> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>14:30 CET – US July employment report.</strong> Nonfarm payrolls, consensus around <strong>+80,000</strong> after June’s <strong>+57,000</strong>; unemployment rate seen unchanged at <strong>4.2%</strong>; average hourly earnings expected at <strong>3.5%</strong> year on year and <strong>+0.3%</strong> on the month.</li> <li><strong>Earnings.</strong> OCBC and UOB reported in Asia; Cisco and Applied Materials are also on the calendar.</li> <li><strong>Ahead:</strong> July CPI on <strong>12 August</strong> and PPI on <strong>13 August</strong>, both inside the 14 August expiry.</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why the jobs report lifts short-dated volatility, and why it barely did this time</strong></h2> <p>Three numbers land together at <strong>14:30 CET</strong>: nonfarm payrolls, consensus around <strong>+80,000</strong> after June’s <strong>+57,000</strong>; the unemployment rate, seen unchanged at <strong>4.2%</strong>; and average hourly earnings, expected at <strong>3.5%</strong> year on year and <strong>+0.3%</strong> on the month.</p> <p>The mechanism is arithmetic. Variance adds up over time, so an option covering a window that contains a scheduled release prices ordinary day-to-day movement plus whatever jump the release can cause. The ordinary part scales with the length of the window, the jump does not. A same-day option therefore carries the whole jump against a single session of normal drift, which is why event premium concentrates at the very front of the curve and fades quickly behind it. Today that shows up as VIX1D rising while every longer measure falls.</p> <p>The size of the lift is the surprise. Stripping the ordinary component out of today’s <strong>0.581%</strong> implied move using yesterday’s <strong>0.56%</strong> same-day reading leaves about <strong>13 index points</strong>, roughly <strong>0.17%</strong>, as the incremental payrolls premium. That is a modest charge for the month’s most-watched release, and yesterday’s session carried its own minor data, so the true premium may be slightly larger.</p> <p>Three prints have likely narrowed the plausible range in advance: Wednesday’s ADP at <strong>44,000</strong> against a <strong>70,000</strong> forecast, initial claims at <strong>199,000</strong> near a 57-year low, and second-quarter unit labour costs up just <strong>1.3%</strong> against a <strong>2.1%</strong> forecast. With press reporting suggesting Fed Chair Warsh is ready to raise rates in September, average hourly earnings arguably carries more weight than the payrolls headline, and the labour-cost data has already taken some heat out of it. The <strong>14 August</strong> expiry, spanning today’s report plus CPI on <strong>12 August</strong> and PPI on <strong>13 August</strong>, prices <strong>103.2 points (1.337%)</strong> on the same at-the-money derivation, so in our assessment the market may be reserving its attention for next week’s inflation prints.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><hr /> </h2> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our view, today’s setup may be less about which way the payrolls print lands than about how little the options market is charging to sit through it. Premium has been added at exactly one point on the curve, and even there the lift measures around 13 index points against an index near its record.</p> <p>In our assessment, a market that prices a scheduled labour release at close to a normal session while paying up for oil and rate volatility may be saying its attention is elsewhere, with next week’s inflation data the likelier test.</p> <p>Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pricing overview</a> for costs and applicable charges.</p> <hr /> <p><span >The author holds no positions in the instruments mentioned at the time of writing. This content is for educational purposes only. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.</span></p> <p><span >This is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risk.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/chips-crack-vol-shrugs---options-brief---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="E21D637978BB49BEAA0C0273BEE7BD4B" data-type="Article">Chips crack vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/records-extend-hedges-build---options-brief---5-august-2026-05082026" data-id="07808BCD075B46999F981609A59A3507" data-type="Article">Records extend hedges build - Options Brief - 5 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/mega-cap-rally-chip-jitters---options-brief---4-august-2026-04082026" data-id="0BADED83418F490BAF48C8C1A50F11AE" data-type="Article">Mega-cap rally chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/iran-stands-down-tech-splits---options-brief---3-august-2026-03082026" data-id="243F4972B21D4CF79A8CE2B9509FBC7C" data-type="Article">Iran stands down tech splits - Options Brief - 3 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/index-up-average-stock-down---options-brief---31-july-2026-31072026" data-id="F10B876B5E4C4B4386C53E2BDDC6FB3B" data-type="Article">Index up average stock down - Options Brief - 31 July 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---hormuz-doubts-lift-oil-as-payrolls-loom---7-august-2026-07082026" data-id="3A44FB804796403A8110BA6ABFCE1C7B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Hormuz doubts lift oil as payrolls loom - 7 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chip-jitters-resurface-as-hormuz-hopes-build---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="B0FBA62418A04E46A1B75170E8C9D3E0" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chip jitters resurface as Hormuz hopes build - 6 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">US hitting two supply chain birds with one policy stone.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/polysilicon-supply-chains-and-us-jobs-data/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Aakash Gupta points out <span><a href="https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2085235419483181257" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one</a></span>, which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years.</li> <li>An FT exclusive delves into <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/549f2e23-5aa2-49c7-9ea6-a9784ab7087c?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic</a></span>, especially to sell its own chips to the company. </li> <li>And <span><a href="https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending</a></span>.</li> <li><span><a href="https://laurentiugabriel.github.io/ChipTycoon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ChipTycoon, an info-animation,</a></span> shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game. </li> </ul> </p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI is rewriting the software bill: what earnings say about SaaS disruption</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>AI threatens software built around simple tasks and seat counts, but can strengthen platforms</strong> tied to critical workflows and proprietary data.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Recent earnings show monetisation matters:</strong> HubSpot is changing pricing, while ServiceNow, SAP and Atlassian still show strong AI-linked demand.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>Investors can track retention, pricing and workflow depth</strong> rather than treating the entire software sector as one disrupted trade.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <span></span> <p><span> <p>Software-as-a-service (SaaS), cloud software sold by subscription, has spent much of 2026 under a simple fear: if artificial intelligence (AI) agents do more work, companies may need fewer human users and therefore fewer licences. But the risk is more nuanced than “AI kills software”. The real shift is in what customers are willing to pay for. Value is moving away from features and seat counts, towards outcomes, proprietary data, embedded workflows and transactions.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The seat is getting nervous</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For years, SaaS had a convenient growth engine. A customer hired more people, bought more seats and paid more subscription fees. AI challenges that formula because fewer employees, supported by agents, may handle the same workload.</span></p> <p><span>HubSpot is a useful case study. The customer-management platform grew second-quarter revenue 20%, yet slightly lowered its full-year outlook. Management said it was deliberately changing its products, pricing and sales model to make AI easier to adopt.</span></p> <p><span>That can help adoption while delaying revenue. The old question was “how many seats?” The new one is increasingly “how much valuable work runs through the platform?”</span></p> <p><span>Atlassian is preparing for that shift. Its new Flex model lets large customers commit to a fixed budget but move spending between seats, applications and AI usage. Salesforce is also reporting “agentic work units” alongside rapid Agentforce adoption. The billing unit itself is starting to evolve.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Workflow is the new moat</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AI can recreate a feature surprisingly quickly. Recreating years of company data, integrations, permissions and workflows is harder.</span></p> <p><span>That matters for ServiceNow, SAP, Workday and Salesforce. These companies sit inside important processes such as information technology, finance, human resources and customer management. Replacing them is less like swapping an app and more like rewiring an office building.</span></p> <p><span>Recent earnings suggest these platforms still have leverage. ServiceNow grew subscription revenue by about a quarter and said its AI products crossed USD 1 billion in annual contract value. SAP reported 26% constant-currency growth in current cloud backlog. Workday continued to grow subscriptions while raising its margin outlook.</span></p> <p><span>Adobe and Intuit offer similar evidence. Adobe said AI-first annual recurring revenue more than tripled and raised its full-year targets in June. Intuit raised its full-year revenue guidance after its May results.</span></p> <p><span>None of this makes incumbents immune. It suggests that proprietary data and embedded workflows can make AI a reason to use the platform more, rather than remove it.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>AI can enlarge the market too</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Shopify and AppLovin sit slightly outside traditional SaaS, but they help define the boundaries.</span></p> <p><span>Shopify earns from subscriptions, payments and merchant activity. Second-quarter revenue grew 34%, while AI-driven traffic and orders to merchants tripled. If AI helps shoppers discover and buy more products, Shopify can benefit even if the traditional software interface matters less.</span></p> <p><span>AppLovin shows another risk. Its advertising engine depends heavily on AI model quality. Revenue still grew more than 50%, but results fell slightly short of expectations and progress on a new model slowed. When AI itself is the advantage, model execution becomes a business risk.</span></p> <p><span>The distinction matters. AI can disrupt the interface while strengthening the underlying platform.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Where disruption can bite</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The highest risk sits with software that solves narrow tasks, owns little unique data and is easy to replace. Warning signs include weaker customer growth, falling revenue per customer and heavier discounting.</span></p> <p><span>A second risk is pricing. Moving from seats to usage or outcomes can improve long-term economics, but the transition may look messy. Investors can watch whether AI revenue grows without steadily weakening margins or cash generation.</span></p> <p><span>The third is competition. AI makes it cheaper and faster to build software, so customers may have more alternatives. Incumbents need their data, distribution and integration advantages to remain valuable.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Separate systems running critical workflows from tools </strong>that mainly add convenient features.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Track retention, revenue per customer and AI usage</strong>, not simply the number of AI launches.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch pricing changes.</strong> Flexible models can expand adoption, but they must eventually support healthy economics.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Diversify across business models</strong> rather than treating one software company as the entire AI disruption story.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The moat matters more than the model</span></strong></h3> <p><span>AI is not cancelling SaaS. It is cancelling the assumption that adding seats automatically creates durable growth. This earnings season shows a more selective contest. Platforms with deep workflows, trusted data and strong distribution can use AI to become more useful. Simpler tools may have to defend why they exist at all. </span></p> <p><span>The strongest signal is therefore not how often management says “AI”, a metric that remains conveniently unlimited. It is what customers do next: renew, expand, automate more work and pay for measurable outcomes. That is also the useful way to view <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/theme/3367092b-4afd-4081-991c-e6c63a0c3a12" target="_blank">Saxo’s software shortlist</a>. These companies face the same technological wave, but very different economics. AI will not treat them equally, and neither should investors.</span></p> <span> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>DBS, OCBC and UOB: From rate trade to wealth story</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Singapore banks are proving they can grow even as interest-rate margins fall.</span></strong><span> DBS, OCBC and UOB reported second-quarter profit growth of 9%, 22% and 10% respectively, as wealth management and other fee income offset pressure on lending margins.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wealth management is becoming a core earnings engine.</span></strong><span> Singapore is benefiting both from rising Asian wealth and from global capital seeking a stable financial hub.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The banks offer increasingly different investment stories:</span></strong><span> DBS remains the quality and profitability leader, OCBC currently has the strongest earnings momentum and diversification, while UOB offers the clearest ASEAN growth optionality.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span><hr /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The rate engine is slowing. The wealth engine is accelerating.</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Singapore's three major banks have just delivered an important message for investors: lower net interest margins do not necessarily mean lower profits.</span></p> <p><span>DBS reported second-quarter net profit of S$3.08 billion, up 9% year-on-year. OCBC's profit rose 22% to S$2.22 billion, while UOB reported a 10% increase to around S$1.5 billion.</span></p> <p><span>That is despite net interest margins (NIMs) falling across all three banks.</span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td > <p ><strong><span>Q2 2026</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p ><strong><span>DBS</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>OCBC</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p ><strong><span>UOB</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><span>Net profit</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$3.08bn, +9% YoY</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$2.22bn, +22% YoY</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$1.48bn, +10% YoY</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Return on equity</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>17.9%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>14.4%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>11.8%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Net interest margin</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>1.87%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>1.70%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>1.74%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Net fee income growth</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+25%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+28%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>+5%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>Wealth-management fees</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$919m, +42%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$470m, +44%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>S$243m, +29%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>NPL ratio</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>1.0%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>0.9%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>1.6%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><span>CET1 ratio</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>16.6%</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>15.7%</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span>15.4%</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span>The investment story is therefore changing.</span></p> <p><span>For several years, Singapore banks were treated largely as beneficiaries of rising interest rates. Today, they are increasingly becoming <strong>regional wealth, payments, insurance and financial-distribution platforms that also happen to run very large lending businesses</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>That potentially gives the sector a longer runway than a simple interest-rate trade.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Why are margins falling if MAS has tightened policy?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>There is an important distinction here.</span></p> <p><span>The Monetary Authority of Singapore has indeed tightened monetary policy twice this year, including a "very slight" tightening in July. But unlike the Federal Reserve or most other central banks, <strong>MAS does not set monetary policy primarily through an interest rate</strong>. It manages the Singapore dollar's trade-weighted exchange rate.</span></p> <p><span>In July, MAS increased the rate at which its S$NEER policy band is allowed to appreciate. That is monetary tightening, but it is <strong>not equivalent to an interest-rate hike</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Singapore interest rates remain heavily influenced by global rates, particularly US dollar rates, domestic liquidity and funding conditions.</span></p> <p><span>That explains why bank NIMs can fall even while MAS is tightening its exchange-rate policy.</span></p> <p><span>Loan yields have been repricing lower as benchmark rates have declined. Deposit costs also eventually fall, but usually not immediately or by the same amount. OCBC, for example, has explicitly pointed to lower SGD, HKD and USD benchmark rates as a driver of weaker net interest income.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Why profits are holding up</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The banks are essentially replacing some margin income with activity income.</span></p> <p><span>Wealth-management fees have surged. Trading and treasury customer activity has been strong. Insurance has contributed to OCBC's diversification. Loan books continue to grow, while asset quality remains healthy.</span></p> <p><span>DBS's wealth-management fees rose 42% year-on-year to a record S$919 million in the quarter, while its wealth assets under management exceeded S$500 billion.</span></p> <p><span>Across the sector, the numbers increasingly suggest that wealth management is moving from being a useful supplementary business into a <strong>core earnings pillar</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>This matters because wealth income can be relatively capital-light. The same affluent customer can generate revenue through deposits, investments, insurance, structured products, financing and succession planning.</span></p> <p><span>The relationship can also become increasingly sticky.</span></p> <p><strong><span>The interest-rate engine is slowing, but the wealth and fee-income engines are accelerating.<br /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Wealth is also a Singapore story</span></strong></h2> <p><span>There are two forces at work.</span></p> <p><span>The first is defensive. Singapore's political stability, regulatory credibility, strong currency and relative geopolitical neutrality become more valuable when the external environment becomes less predictable.</span></p> <p><span>The second is more structural: <strong>Asia itself is creating more wealth.</strong></span></p> <p><span>Entrepreneurs, business owners and families across Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Greater China and the wider region increasingly need a place to manage, diversify and eventually transfer that wealth.</span></p> <p><span>Singapore sits at the intersection of those flows.</span></p> <p><span>That means the banks are benefiting not just from money looking for safety, but from the longer-term financialisation of Asian wealth.</span></p> <p class="quote--pull"><strong><span>Capital may arrive because of uncertainty, but it stays because of the ecosystem.</span></strong></p> <p><span>And that distinction matters. If geopolitical tensions ease, some safe-haven inflows or volatility-driven trading revenue could moderate. But better confidence could simultaneously lift equity markets, corporate investment, deal activity and loan growth.</span></p> <p><span>Peace is therefore not necessarily bearish for Singapore banks.</span></p> <p><span>A more meaningful threat would be a sustained decline in asset prices, recession, or tighter restrictions on cross-border capital movements.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>What happens if interest rates fall further?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Further rate declines would probably continue to compress NIMs initially.</span></p> <p><span>But there is an important difference between <strong>good rate cuts and bad rate cuts</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>If rates fall because inflation is cooling while growth remains healthy, banks may eventually benefit from lower deposit costs, stronger mortgage and corporate borrowing demand and greater investor appetite for bonds, equities and investment products.</span></p> <p><span>That could be particularly supportive for banks with large wealth businesses.</span></p> <p><span>If rates are falling because economies are moving into recession, however, the picture becomes much less attractive. Loan growth slows, markets weaken, wealth activity falls and bad debts can rise.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Soft-landing cuts test margins. Recessionary cuts test the entire balance sheet.</span></strong></p> <p><span>That is why lower rates by themselves do not end the Singapore bank story. They simply place a greater premium on diversified franchises.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>And what if interest rates rise again?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This is where the picture becomes more nuanced.</span></p> <p><span>A moderate increase in market interest rates could initially be positive for bank earnings. Loan yields tend to reprice higher, potentially widening net interest margins, particularly if deposit costs adjust more slowly.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, that could bring the traditional rate sensitivity of Singapore banks back into focus.</span></p> <p><span>But higher rates are not automatically better.</span></p> <p><span>If rates rise too far or stay elevated for too long, the second-round effects start to matter. Mortgage and corporate borrowing demand can weaken. Highly leveraged borrowers come under pressure. Non-performing loans and credit costs can eventually rise.</span></p> <p><span>Higher cash and deposit rates could also compete with wealth-management products, while rising bond yields can pressure asset valuations.</span></p> <p><span>The key takeaway is that <strong>the best environment is not necessarily the highest interest rate. It is a rate level high enough to preserve margins but low enough to keep borrowers, markets and the economy healthy.<br /> </strong></span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Three banks, increasingly different stories</span></strong></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>DBS: the quality leader</span></strong></h3> <p><span>DBS remains the strongest all-round franchise.</span></p> <p><span>Its 17.9% return on equity remains comfortably ahead of its peers, while its wealth business is operating at a scale neither OCBC nor UOB currently matches. Wealth fees reached S$919 million in Q2 and assets under management have moved above S$500 billion.</span></p> <p><span>Its strong capital position also supports the income case. DBS declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.81 per share alongside its latest results.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens:</span></strong><span> strongest profitability, wealth scale and earnings resilience, although investors need to consider how much of that quality is already reflected in the valuation.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>OCBC: the momentum and breadth story</span></strong></h3> <p><span>OCBC arguably delivered the strongest quarter operationally.</span></p> <p><span>Its earnings growth was broad rather than reliant on one source. Fee income, wealth, trading and insurance all contributed, while its cost-to-income ratio and non-performing loan ratio remain strong.</span></p> <p><span>That diversification is particularly valuable as NIMs fall because OCBC has more earnings engines available to absorb the pressure.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens:</span></strong><span> arguably the best current balance of earnings momentum, diversification and operating efficiency.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>UOB: the ASEAN optionality</span></strong></h3> <p><span>UOB's numbers currently lag its peers on several metrics. Its ROE of 11.8% is lower, its cost-income ratio is above 45%, and its NPL ratio of 1.6% is higher.</span></p> <p><span>But its attraction is different.</span></p> <p><span>UOB offers arguably the clearest direct exposure to rising financial activity across Southeast Asia.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Investor lens: </span></strong><span>suited to value-oriented investors looking for ASEAN growth optionality and willing to accept weaker current profitability and higher execution risk while waiting for the regional franchise to deliver.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>The investment takeaway</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The most important shift is that Singapore banks are becoming harder to describe with a single macro variable.</span></p> <p><span>They remain sensitive to rates, but they are no longer simply proxies for interest rates.</span></p> <p><span>DBS is increasingly a high-return regional wealth franchise. OCBC combines banking with wealth, trading and insurance. UOB offers the strongest direct ASEAN expansion story and is moving towards a more capital-light distribution model.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, that means the next phase of the bank story should be judged less on whether rates rise or fall by 25 basis points and more on four questions:</span></p> <p><strong><span>Can wealth inflows continue? Can loan growth stay healthy? Can credit quality remain resilient? And can fee income become large enough to permanently reduce dependence on interest margins?</span></strong></p> <p><span>So far, the latest earnings offer an encouraging answer.</span></p> <p class="quote--pull"><strong><span>Singapore banks are no longer simply a proxy for interest rates. They are becoming regional wealth platforms — and that may prove to be the more durable investment story.<br /> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Key risks</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The key risks to this view are a sharp deterioration in Asian or global growth, prolonged weakness in equity and bond markets, rising credit losses, aggressive competition for deposits or wealth clients, tighter cross-border capital rules, and valuations that already price in too much of the banks' earnings resilience.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>Explore more</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Investors who want to go beyond comparing the three banks may also find these useful:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/xq3ajeb?uuid=gbMlCwG">Singapore Stocks shortlist</a></span></strong><span> — look beyond banks into Singapore-listed industrials and AI-related themes.</span></li> <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/axjfxym?uuid=gbMlCwG">Dividend Aristocrats shortlist</a></span></strong><span> — explore other cash-generative companies with a track record of shareholder returns.</span></li> <li><strong><span><a href="https://social.saxo/ilsuut0?uuid=gbMlCwG">Margin Lending to supercharge dividend yield</a></span></strong><span> — learn how eligible holdings may be used more efficiently, while understanding the added risks of borrowing.</span></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Singapore</span> <span>Banks</span> <span>Cash dividend</span> <span>Income investor – Dividend</span> <span>Dividend yield</span> <span>Dividend per stock</span> <span>High Dividend</span> <span>Dividend</span> <span>Theme - Dividend growth</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - Hormuz doubts lift oil as payrolls loom - 7 August 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:01:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong><strong> </strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Polysilicon tariffs and Hormuz uncertainty dominate as payrolls take over the session's direction</li> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US stocks slipped, Europe reached another record, while Asian markets traded cautiously ahead of US payrolls.</li> <li><strong>Volatility</strong>: Equity vol kept compressing while oil vol jumped, payrolls now the session's single catalyst</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Crypto equities and miners led losses while spot held, corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Hormuz doubts kept crude bid, gold consolidated its breakout and copper neared a record</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Yields rose globally on oil, hawkish Fed reporting and heavy corporate bond supply</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: A firmer dollar broke the yen above its 200-day average ahead of US payrolls</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macr</strong><strong>o</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Trump administration imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products used in semiconductors and solar panels under Section 232</strong>, aiming to shield US producers from Chinese competition in the chip supply chain.</li> <li><strong>Strait of Hormuz tensions resurfaced</strong>. Iran said it struck "hostile targets" near Qeshm Island, while a draft Iran-Oman deal would bar US and Israeli ships, require compensation from countries it considers hostile, and impose cargo-based penalties, with full reopening conditioned on lifting the US maritime blockade.</li> <li><strong>US initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 199,000</strong>, below the 202,000 forecast and near a 57-year low, a third consecutive week under 200,000. Continuing claims increased 24,000 to 1.801 million.</li> <li><strong>US nonfarm unit labour costs rose 1.3% in Q2</strong>, matching Q1 but well below the 2.1% forecast, as compensation rose 2.7% and productivity 1.4%. The combination leaves inflation, not employment, as the swing variable for September.</li> <li>Japan's household spending fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, a seventh straight decline and the steepest, against expectations for a 1.0% rise. Month-on-month spending dropped 6.4%, the sharpest since January 2021.</li> <li>Euro area retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, reversing most of May's gain and missing the 0.1% rise expected. Annual growth of 0.7% was the weakest since July 2024.</li> <li>July payrolls land at 14:30 CET, consensus +80,000 after June's +57,000, with unemployment seen unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 3.5% year-on-year.</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News</strong></a></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong><strong> calendar highlights (times in GMT)</strong></h4> <ul> <li>None today</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <p>Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Thursday</strong><strong> (yesterday)</strong>: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy</li> <li><strong>Friday</strong>: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software</li> <li><strong>Saturday</strong>: Berkshire Hathaway</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Next week</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Monday</strong>: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile</li> <li><strong>Tuesday</strong>: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer</li> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: <strong>The S&P 500 fell 0.2%</strong>, the <strong>Dow Jones lost 0.9%</strong> and the <strong>Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4%</strong> on Thursday as rising oil prices and mixed earnings pulled stocks back from record territory. <strong>Western Digital</strong> dropped 13.0% and <strong>Sandisk </strong>fell 6.8% after strong results failed to clear already high expectations, while <strong>AppLovin </strong>sank 19.7% after quarterly revenue missed estimates. <strong>SpaceX </strong>gained 6.1% as a large lockup expiry passed without the wave of insider selling investors had feared. Attention turned to Friday’s payrolls report, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate move.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The <strong>STOXX 600 rose 0.2%</strong> to a third straight record close, while the <strong>Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.4%</strong> and the <strong>FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%</strong>, as earnings strength outweighed Middle East uncertainty. <strong>WPP </strong>surged 28.6% after beating organic growth expectations, and <strong>Deutsche Telekom</strong> climbed 6.3% after expanding its 2026 share buyback plan. <strong>Siemens </strong>fell 4.5% as its Digital Industries business missed expectations, while <strong>Rheinmetall </strong>lost 3.5% after cutting its 2026 sales outlook. Investors next watched US payrolls for clues on rates and the broader risk mood.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Japan’s <strong>Nikkei 225 fell 0.</strong><strong>7</strong><strong>%</strong> and South Korea’s <strong>KOSPI slipped </strong><strong>1</strong><strong>%</strong> on Friday, while China’s <strong>CSI 300 gained 0.2%</strong> and broader Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were flat, as investors waited for US payrolls and tracked another rise in oil prices. Singapore banks were in focus after OCBC reported a 22% rise in second-quarter profit to a record S$2.2 billion, while UOB posted a 10% increase to S$1.48 billion; both results were helped by stronger wealth-management fees. OCBC raised its interim dividend to S$0.47 and UOB declared S$0.88, keeping capital returns in focus.</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/equities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p><strong>VIX 15.</strong><strong>15</strong><strong> | VIX FUTURES: 17.</strong><strong>30</strong><strong> | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (</strong><strong>134.73</strong><strong>) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li>Renewed Strait of Hormuz doubts pushed Brent higher and knocked equities lower for a second session, yet equity volatility kept compressing. <strong>VIX </strong>fell 4.2% to 15.15, <strong>VIX9D </strong>dropped 8.2% to 12.66 and <strong>VVIX </strong>eased to 88.72. Only <strong>VIX1D </strong>firmed, up 3.6% to 12.55, pricing the payrolls print. </li> <li>The cash curve stayed in contango to <strong>VIX3M </strong>18.69, with <strong>SKEW </strong>normal at 134.73. Cross-asset vol diverged: <strong>OVX </strong>rose 11.4% to 57.34 and <strong>MOVE </strong>gained 3.5%. <strong>SPXW </strong>prices a 44.8-point (0.58%) move today and 103.2 points (1.34%) into 14 August, with July payrolls the catalyst.</li> <li><strong>For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/options" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Options Insights</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <p><strong>BITCOIN ~64,</strong><strong>233</strong><strong> -0.</strong><strong>04</strong><strong>% | ETHEREUM ~1,</strong><strong>896</strong><strong> -0.</strong><strong>32</strong><strong>% | IBIT 36.</strong><strong>49 -</strong><strong>0.</strong><strong>68</strong><strong>% | ETHA 14.</strong><strong>40 -0.55</strong><strong>% | AS OF ~05:55 CET</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Crypto equities carried the weakness while spot held steady</strong>. A firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields ahead of payrolls framed the session. <strong>Block </strong>fell 6.2% and <strong>Coinbase </strong>3.0%, with miners broadly lower: <strong>CleanSpark </strong>down 5.6%, <strong>Marathon </strong>5.3% and <strong>Cipher </strong>2.7%. Both spot ETFs slipped. </li> <li>Corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions. <strong>Block </strong>added 85 bitcoin, lifting holdings to 9,117, weeks after joining the S&P 500. <strong>Strategy </strong>disclosed a 1,638 bitcoin sale for $104.73 million, its third of 2026, funding dividends and buybacks.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil</strong>: Brent rose 1.18% to $83.46 in the Asian session after a move above $83 in late US hours, extending Thursday's more than 5% surge, while WTI added 0.98% to $78.05 following a 3.3% Thursday gain. The move coincides with the absence of a durable Strait of Hormuz agreement and Iranian reports of strikes on hostile targets, both cited as contributing factors. Despite the two-day rebound, crude remains down roughly 5% on the week, having sold off earlier on expectations of a US-Iran accord. Energy equities followed the move, with the energy sector ETF up 1.48% and oil and gas exploration up 1.13%, while natural gas eased 0.42% to $2.629. Oil implied volatility repriced sharply, with OVX up 11.4%. </li> <li><strong>Metals</strong>: Gold futures rose 0.60% to $4,325.50 with spot around $4,261.85, consolidating a 4.1% single-day gain in the prior session that was the largest since February and leaves the metal up more than 5% in August. The advance has been attributed to a technical breakout alongside continued central bank and institutional demand. Silver outperformed, up 1.59% to $62.585, compressing the gold-silver ratio to 69.1. Precious-metals volatility cooled even as prices rose, with GVZ down 2.85% and silver vol down 3.08%. </li> <li><strong>Industrial metals</strong>: Copper rose 0.57% to $6.7470 on Comex and traded near a record on the LME, up as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 per tonne, after the Democratic Republic of Congo halted exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. Analysts noted the ban captures only a modest share of Congolese exports, but it adds to a tightening supply narrative at a time when US copper imports are running at their highest monthly volume in at least 12 years.</li> <li><strong>More in our </strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary</strong></a></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US treasury yield rebounded sharply Thursday as crude oil prices did likewise</strong>, with considerable focus on the July US jobs report after soft ADP private payrolls and ISM Services Employment survey sub-index numbers earlier this week. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield has rebounded to 4.25% after trading as low as 4.18% mid-week, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield trades at 4.68%, up eight basis points from its Thursday lows.</li> <li><strong>Core European and Asia-Pacific bonds sold off in sympathy</strong><strong> with US treasuries</strong>. Germany's 10-year advanced three basis points to 3.14% and the UK's rose five to 4.94%, while Japan's 10-year added two basis points to 2.785% and Australia's jumped nine to 5.01%. </li> <li><strong>The "sell America" debate intensified, with global investors questioning the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility under Warsh</strong>. JPMorgan lifted its year-end 10- and 30-year yield forecasts and pushed back its expectation for larger auctions by six months, citing the Treasury's changed issuance guidance as discomfort with rising yields. Japan's intervention last week adds Treasury repatriation risk, since reserves deployed to support the yen reduce Japanese demand for US paper. Bond volatility firmed, with MOVE up 3.45% to 76.12.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar rebounded slightly ahead of Friday’s U</strong><strong>S jobs report </strong>and as US treasury yields bounced back.<strong> USDJPY </strong>rose above 158.00 late Thursday for the first time since last week and as high as 158.57 before finding resistance. The range in <strong>EURUSD</strong> was more muted as it eased slightly lower to the 1.1520 area.</li> <li><strong>The Swiss franc remains weak </strong>after a modest kneejerk strengthening move last week on Japan’s intervention in the Japanese yen, with EURCHF having now rebounded to new highs for 2026, trading as high as 0.9370 before finding resistance. USDCHF rebounded back above 0.8125 after a 0.8060 area low Thursday.</li> <li>More on currencies in our dedicated section: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/forex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>Forex Trading News & Analysis</strong></a></li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 7 August, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 01:05:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Trump imposes 15%% tariff on polysilicon products</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>OCBC and UOB reported earnings that beat expectations on wealth fees</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: short: </span></strong></span><span>USDJPY rose 0.5% to 158.50, breaking above 200-day moving average</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Copper neared a record; Brent climbed to ~$83</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>UST yield rose; Alphabet’s 10-tranche bond sale</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The Trump administration imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products, used in semiconductors and solar panels, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act</span></strong></span><span>, aiming to shield US polysilicon producers from rising Chinese competition in the chip supply chain.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have unsettled markets and clouded plans to fully reopen the route. Iran says it struck “hostile targets” after explosions near Qeshm Island.</span></strong></span><span> A draft Iran</span>‑<span>Oman deal would bar US and Israeli ships, require compensation from “hostile” states, and impose cargo-based penalties, with full reopening conditioned on lifting the US maritime blockade.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s household spending fell 3.3% yoy in June 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the seventh straight and steepest decline, defying expectations for a 1.0% rise. Weakness was broad-based, led by food, clothing, and transport, while housing and recreation edged up. Month-on-month, spending slumped 6.4%, the first fall since March and the sharpest since January 2021.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the last week of July</span></strong></span><span>, below the 202,000 forecast and near a 57-year low. Continuing claims increased by 24,000 to 1.801 million, remaining low and signaling a strong labor market. Federal employee claims ticked up by 32 to 450.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US nonfarm unit labor costs rose 1.3% in Q2 2026, matching Q1 but below the 2.1% forecast</span></strong></span><span>, as compensation increased 2.7% and productivity 1.4%. Manufacturing unit labor costs were flat, with 1.9% gains in both pay and productivity. Year-on-year, nonfarm costs rose 1.4% and manufacturing 3.5%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Euro Area retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in June 2026, reversing most of May’s 0.4% gain</span></strong></span><span> and missing expectations for a 0.1% rise. Food and non</span>‑<span>food sales declined, while auto fuel rebounded. Sales dropped in Germany and France but rose in Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands. Year-on-year, sales grew 0.7%, the weakest increase since July 2024.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,709.96 on Thursday for a second consecutive session of losses, pulling further from its all-time closing high set on Tuesday. Dow Jones dropped nearly 500 points (~0.9%) to 53,875, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4%. Fiserv slumped after slashing its full-year profit outlook. Hertz surged 29% on earnings day. Memory names Sandisk and Western Digital sank on weak results. In after-hours trading, Airbnb rose ~8% after boosting its annual revenue forecast, while Atlassian surged on a 28% revenue beat. AppLovin sank ~18% after a weaker-than-expected EBITDA outlook.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European markets were in a holding pattern ahead of the US payrolls report, with geopolitical risk from the Middle East and rate-hike concerns keeping sentiment cautious. Flutter fell 4.2% in premarket trading earlier in the week after cutting its US revenue guidance for the full year. The MSCI World Index shed 0.2% on Thursday. Equity-index futures pointed to modest declines across the region heading into Friday.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian equity markets are set to edge lower on Friday following the overnight deterioration in US sentiment. Equity-index futures pointed to modest declines in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, while South Korea contracts edged higher. On Thursday, the STI gained 1.0% to 5,638.99, led by DFI Retail Group (+3.7%), with Mapletree Pan-Asia Commercial Trust the worst performer (-3.0%). The Kospi 200 futures closed up 1.5% at 995.4. In Hong Kong, Wharf Real Estate surged as much as 32% — its biggest intraday gain on record — after 1H revenue beat estimates. The MSCI China Index fell 1.2% on Thursday. <strong>OCBC reported Q2 profit rises 22% to S$2.2b vs S$1.91b consensus driven by wealth management fees, and declared interim dividend of $0.47 vs $0.41 last year. UOB also reported that Q2 profit rose 10% to S$1.48b driven by wealth fees, beating est of S$1.45b, declaring dividend of S$0.88.</strong></span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Friday: OCBC, UOB, Cisco, Applied Materials</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>USDJPY </span></strong><span>rose 0.5% to around 158.47–158.55, breaking above its 200-day moving average and triggering stop-loss orders. The move came just one week after the historic US-Japan joint intervention, with 155 now seen as a key support level for the yen. Fitch noted that further yen appreciation will likely require BOJ rate hikes.</span></li> <li><span>The Australian dollar steadied as traders awaited key US nonfarm payrolls later Friday, after overnight losses on worries about a potential US-Iran deal. <strong>AUDUSD </strong>was little changed around 0.7033, after closing 0.4% lower in New York.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDCNH </span></strong><span>and USDCNY were little changed at 6.7517, with the yuan holding steady despite the PBOC setting a slightly weaker fixing of 6.789 per dollar. Chinese banks are expanding direct yuan settlement to additional currencies, including the Thai baht and Brazilian real, as part of yuan internationalisation efforts.</span></li> <li><span>Most emerging market currencies weakened as the Hormuz deal details reignited tensions. The <strong>South African rand</strong> and <strong>Hungarian forint</strong> fell sharply. The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> was the best performer among 14 major currencies, gaining 0.26%, while the <strong>Swedish krona</strong> was the worst, falling 0.38%.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong >Commodities:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> surged to around $83 per barrel in late US hours, up more than 5% on the day, after Iranian media reported strikes on "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran sought to restrict passage for US and Israeli vessels. The move revived inflation concerns and weighed on risk assets globally.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>extended its recent strong run, trading around $4,280–$4,328 per ounce after jumping 4.1% in the prior session — its biggest single-day gain since February. The rally has been driven by a combination of Hormuz-related rate-cut optimism earlier in the week, a technical breakout, and strong central bank and institutional demand. Gold is up more than 5% in August alone.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Copper </span></strong><span>surged to near a record, rising as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, after Reuters reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo halted exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. Analysts noted the ban captures only a small portion of Congo's exports, but the move adds to a broader supply-tightening narrative, with copper imports into the US running at the highest monthly volume in at least 12 years.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US Treasury yield curve </strong>shifted higher across all tenors. The 10-year yield rose ~5.9bps to 4.676% and the 30-year rose ~4.8bps to 5.218%, driven by the FT report on Warsh's September rate-hike readiness, the rebound in oil prices, and supply pressure from Alphabet's 10-tranche bond offering.</span></li> <li><span>The "Sell America" trade debate intensified, with global bond investors questioning the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility under Chair Warsh, whose preference for sparse communication and reported proximity to the White House has raised concerns. JPMorgan lifted its year-end forecasts for 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and pushed back its forecast for larger bond auctions by six months, citing the Treasury's "subtle" change in debt issuance guidance as a sign of discomfort with rising yields.</span></li> <li><span>Japan's FX intervention last week is adding to Treasury repatriation risk, as reserve assets deployed to support the yen reduce Japanese demand for US Treasuries, contributing to upward pressure on yields and term premia. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong ></strong></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>RIP Victor Niederhoffer</h1> <p>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:37:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A Wall Street legend has passed.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/rip-victor-niederhoffer/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <ul> <li>The all-time must read article for want-to-be speculators: The New Yorker article by Malcom Gladwell: <span><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2002/04/22/blowing-up#rid=e59162d0-0271-416f-8418-0cd863597f53&q=niederhoffer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Blowing Up</em>, comparing and contrasting Victor Niederhoffer and Nassim Taleb</a></span>.</li> <li>The <span><a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/70377" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Henry Clews book Fifty Years in Wall Street</a></span>. This book inspired Niederhoffer's giving out canes to people who offered valuable inspiration while writing his column for MSN's MoneyCentral.</li> <li><span><a href="https://books.google.dk/books/about/The_Education_of_a_Speculator.html?id=9FmIMKJ7FX8C&redir_esc=y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Education of a Speculator</a></span> - the legendary book.</li> <li>Recent (less recent than I said on podcast - actually latest I can find is from this February) <span><a href="https://www.tekedia.com/a-black-swan-fund-chief-warns-of-final-equity-melt-up-before-a-historic-crash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mark Spitznagel prediction on one final meltup followed by 80% crash in stocks</a></span>.</li> </ul> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Chips crack, vol shrugs - Options Brief - 6 August 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Equity volatility fell right across the board on a session when chips cracked and the Kospi dropped more than four percent. Gold volatility went the other way. The question is which one is mispriced.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 15.81 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (133.32) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.63</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Records without the tech.</strong> The Dow closed at a record <strong>54,349.12 (+0.49%)</strong> while the S&P 500 slipped <strong>0.17% to 7,723.55</strong> and the Nasdaq Composite fell <strong>0.83%</strong>, as <strong>AMD dropped 7%</strong> and <strong>SanDisk fell 8%</strong>, both after beating estimates.</li> <li><strong>Equity volatility fell across the whole board.</strong> <strong>VIX -4.2% to 15.81</strong>, VIX1D -12.6%, VIX9D -8.3%, VXN -5.2% and MOVE -5.1%, even as Asia’s chip complex sold off hard on Thursday with the <strong>Kospi down about 4.4%</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Metals took the volatility instead.</strong> <strong>Gold jumped 4.1%</strong> on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 3 February, copper set a record, and <strong>gold volatility (GVZ) rose 8.9% to 25.59</strong>, the largest single move on the volatility board.</li> </ul> <p><em>Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 6 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Iran and Oman agreed overnight to a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, while a soft ADP print of <strong>44,000 against a 70,000 forecast</strong> left Friday’s payrolls as the week’s decisive number. Wednesday’s tape split underneath the record close, blue chips up and chips down, and that split widened across Asia on Thursday. Further macro detail sits in Saxo’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/macro" target="_blank">daily macro coverage</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot, Wednesday 5 August 2026 close</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US (Wednesday 5 August close):</strong> Dow <strong>+0.49% to a record 54,349.12</strong>; S&P 500 <strong>-0.17% to 7,723.55</strong>; Nasdaq Composite <strong>-0.83% to 26,363.44</strong>. Eli Lilly rose <strong>4.9%</strong> on raised guidance and Arista Networks gained <strong>3.6%</strong> on a revenue beat, while AMD slid <strong>7%</strong> despite doubling data-centre revenue, and SanDisk fell <strong>8%</strong> even after beating estimates and guiding higher.</li> <li><strong >Europe:</strong><span > The Stoxx 600 notched a fresh record close. HSBC fell </span><strong >4.7%</strong><span > on broker downgrades and a China tax-policy report, Novo Nordisk weighed on the index on soft Wegovy sales, the DAX slipped </span><strong >0.3%</strong><span > on Infineon’s </span><strong >5.7%</strong><span > drop, and the FTSE 100 edged up to </span><strong >10,888</strong><span > on AstraZeneca (+2.5%) and Next (+5.7%).</span></li> <li><strong >Asia (Thursday session, in progress):</strong><span > The chip pullback deepened, with the Kospi down about </span><strong >4.4%</strong><span >, the Nikkei off </span><strong >1.4% to 65,363</strong><span > and the Hang Seng down </span><strong >1.75%</strong><span >. DBS reported record second-quarter profit and raised its 2026 guidance.</span></li> <li><strong >Commodities and rates:</strong><span > WTI extended its slide toward </span><strong >$75</strong><span >, its lowest in almost a month, and Brent held just above </span><strong >$79</strong><span >, taking the week’s decline to roughly 11%. Gold rose </span><strong >4.1%</strong><span > to near </span><strong >$4,280</strong><span >, silver added more than 4%, and copper set a record, up roughly </span><strong >18% year to date</strong><span >, ahead of an expected US tariff decision on copper imports. The US 10-year Treasury yield held near </span><strong >4.61%</strong><span >.</span></li> <li><strong >Volatility complex:</strong><span > VIX </span><strong >15.81 (-4.2%)</strong><span >, VIX1D </span><strong >12.12 (-12.6%)</strong><span >, VIX9D </span><strong >13.79 (-8.3%)</strong><span >. SKEW </span><strong >133.32 (+5.5%)</strong><span >, COR3M </span><strong >9.33 (-3.2%)</strong><span >, DSPX </span><strong >40.55 (-5.0%)</strong><span >. Front-month VIX futures </span><strong >17.63</strong><span >, in contango to the second month at </span><strong >18.81</strong><span >. Against that, gold volatility (GVZ) rose </span><strong >8.9% to 25.59</strong><span > while oil volatility (OVX) fell 3.7%.</span></li> <li><strong >Market regime (rules based read):</strong><span > Low-volatility bull, VIX </span><strong >15.81</strong><span >, 20-day realised volatility </span><strong >14.1%</strong><span > and falling, S&P 500 </span><strong >+3.18%</strong><span > above its 50-day moving average.</span></li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 5 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.</em></p> <ul> <li><strong>Single-name flow:</strong> Chip-linked names leaned toward premium supply rather than accumulation, with Nvidia’s largest confirmed call lines printing on the bid ahead of its late-August results, a shape closer to overwriting than to fresh upside conviction. Alphabet drew one of the session’s cleanest confirmed put purchases, and crypto-linked miners saw genuine long-dated call accumulation.</li> <li><strong>Sector and ETF flow:</strong> Broad index flow stayed two-sided and did not resolve into a directional lean, while semiconductor ETFs attracted the cleanest confirmed upside buying of the session even as single-name chip flow ran the other way. In our assessment, metals-linked ETF flow carried a hedging shape rather than fresh downside conviction, which may be consistent with a complex that has just repriced sharply higher.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility surface – 6 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET</strong></h2> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX term structure</h4> <ul> <li>VIX spot <strong>15.81</strong> (-4.18%)</li> <li>VIX1D <strong>12.12</strong> (-12.55%) · VIX9D <strong>13.79</strong> (-8.31%)</li> <li>VIX3M <strong>18.95</strong> (-2.02%) · VIX6M <strong>21.06</strong> (-1.36%) · VIX1Y <strong>22.67</strong> (-0.96%), an upward-sloping curve with the front end doing almost all of the easing</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">VIX futures</h4> <ul> <li>Front-month VIX futures <strong>17.63</strong> (+1.15%), a premium of roughly <strong>1.82 points</strong> to spot, up from about 1.35 points the prior session</li> <li>Second-month VIX futures <strong>18.81</strong> (+0.54%), front-to-second ratio at <strong>0.935</strong>, the curve holding contango</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Skew and correlation</h4> <ul> <li>CBOE SKEW <strong>133.32</strong> (+5.47%), above the 100 to 120 neutral zone but inside its normal recent range</li> <li>COR3M <strong>9.33</strong> (-3.22%), implied index correlation near multi-month lows</li> <li>DSPX <strong>40.55</strong> (-4.99%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio <strong>0.747</strong>, index put/call <strong>0.955</strong></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Cross-asset volatility</h4> <ul> <li>OVX <strong>51.48</strong> (-3.69%), oil volatility easing alongside the Hormuz-driven slide in crude</li> <li>GVZ <strong>25.59</strong> (+8.89%) · VXSLV <strong>48.02</strong> (+1.22%) · MOVE <strong>73.58</strong> (-5.13%)</li> <li>VXN <strong>24.15</strong> (-5.22%) · RVX <strong>19.38</strong> (-4.86%) · VXD <strong>14.47</strong> (-3.66%) · VVIX <strong>90.43</strong> (-2.31%)</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 August 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the market is pricing</strong></h2> <ul> <li><em><strong>Payrolls premium is running off close to schedule.</strong></em> SPXW options imply a <strong>43-point (0.56%)</strong> move for today’s expiry and <strong>64 points (0.83%)</strong> into Friday’s jobs report, against the <strong>96 points (1.23%)</strong> quoted for that same Friday expiry in yesterday’s edition. These figures are derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Flat-volatility time decay alone would have left roughly <strong>68 points</strong> as the window shortened from two sessions to one, so in our view the market may be letting event premium run off broadly on schedule, with only a modest additional easing rather than a re-rating of Friday’s risk. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges.</li> <li><em><strong>The front end did the cooling, the futures curve did not.</strong></em> VIX1D fell 12.6% to <strong>12.12</strong> and VIX9D fell 8.3% to <strong>13.79</strong>, while VIX1Y barely moved at <strong>22.67</strong>. Spot VIX gave up 0.69 points but front-month VIX futures shed only 0.22, widening the futures premium to spot from roughly <strong>1.35 points to 1.82</strong>. In our assessment, that may point to a market treating this week’s calm as immediate rather than durable.</li> <li><em><strong>Tail hedges firmed while headline volatility fell.</strong></em> CBOE SKEW rose 5.5% to <strong>133.32</strong> even as VIX fell 4.2%, recovering roughly half of Wednesday’s drop from the elevated <strong>139.96</strong> quoted on Tuesday. In our view, demand for out-of-the-money index puts appears to be firming beneath a calmer at-the-money surface, which reads differently from the headline VIX level on its own. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.</li> <li><em><strong>Volatility changed address rather than disappeared.</strong></em> Every equity measure on the board fell, VIX, VXN, RVX, VXD and MOVE among them, while gold volatility rose <strong>8.9%</strong> and silver volatility added <strong>1.2%</strong>. COR3M eased 3.2% to <strong>9.33</strong>, near multi-month lows, and DSPX fell 5.0% to <strong>40.55</strong>. In our assessment, that combination may describe a market pricing company-specific and commodity risk rather than one shared macro factor, with <strong>Nvidia up 3.4%</strong> in the same session <strong>AMD fell 7%</strong> as the clearest illustration.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Today’s catalysts</strong></h2> <p>The US data block lands at <strong>14:30 CET</strong>, with weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended 1 August (forecast around <strong>203,000</strong> against <strong>197,000</strong> previously), continuing claims for the week ended 25 July (previously <strong>1.782 million</strong>), and preliminary second-quarter non-farm productivity (expected around <strong>+0.7%</strong> against <strong>+0.3%</strong>). July Challenger job cuts and final June wholesale inventories also print during the session. Earnings include Molson Coors, Monster Beverage, Warner Bros Discovery and Airbnb in the US, alongside SoftBank Group, Nintendo, Orix and DBS in Asia. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report remains the week’s defining release, and after Wednesday’s soft ADP print it may carry more weight than usual.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>In our assessment, Thursday’s setup may reward attention to where volatility actually sits rather than to the headline index level. The S&P 500 is a fraction below its record with spot volatility in the mid-teens, yet gold volatility has jumped, tail-hedge demand has firmed, and the front of the VIX curve has collapsed faster than the futures behind it. In our view, a market pricing calm at the index while individual names and commodities move on their own news may be telling a dispersion story more than a direction story, with Friday’s payrolls the first real test of that read, though outcomes are uncertain and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. See <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/pricing-overview" target="_blank">Saxo pricing</a> for costs and applicable charges. Past performance is not indicative of future results.</p> <hr /> <p><em>Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/records-extend-hedges-build---options-brief---5-august-2026-05082026" data-id="07808BCD075B46999F981609A59A3507" data-type="Article">Records extend hedges build - Options Brief - 5 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/mega-cap-rally-chip-jitters---options-brief---4-august-2026-04082026" data-id="0BADED83418F490BAF48C8C1A50F11AE" data-type="Article">Mega-cap rally chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/iran-stands-down-tech-splits---options-brief---3-august-2026-03082026" data-id="243F4972B21D4CF79A8CE2B9509FBC7C" data-type="Article">Iran stands down tech splits - Options Brief - 3 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/index-up-average-stock-down---options-brief---31-july-2026-31072026" data-id="F10B876B5E4C4B4386C53E2BDDC6FB3B" data-type="Article">Index up average stock down - Options Brief - 31 July 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/hawkish-hold-iran-flares---options-brief---30-july-2026-30072026" data-id="6E6CA3A1CB964BD3865948CB3076228A" data-type="Article">Hawkish hold Iran flares - Options Brief - 30 July 2026</a><br /> --<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---chip-jitters-resurface-as-hormuz-hopes-build---6-august-2026-06082026" data-id="B0FBA62418A04E46A1B75170E8C9D3E0" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Chip jitters resurface as Hormuz hopes build - 6 August 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---records-extend-on-hormuz-hopes---5-august-2026-05082026" data-id="1AF602BB62DF4863BCADA39B2F13094B" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - Records extend on Hormuz hopes - 5 August 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>ESMA Products NOT Mentioned</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>