COT update: Dollar longs surge as commodity liquidation reaches decade high</h1> <article> <h1>COT update: Dollar longs surge as commodity liquidation reaches decade high</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 9 June 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 9 June 2026.</span></li> <li>In FX, dollar buying dominated trading during the week to 9 June with t<span>he one-sided focus on dollar strength triggering a 69% surge in the aggregate net long dollar</span></li> <li>In commodities, <span>a 4.5% slump in the Bloomberg Commodity Index triggered a third consecutive week of broad and aggressive selling by managed money accounts</span>. </li> <li><span>Measured by both contract volume and notional value, it was a heavy week for the sector, with liquidation concentrated in Brent crude, gold, soybeans and corn</span></li> <li> <p><span>The wave of selling has left positioning considerably leaner, reducing the risk of further forced liquidation and leaving traders better placed to respond to changes in the technical and fundamental outlook.</span></p> </li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Forex:</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="374" data-end="775"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>In FX, dollar buying dominated trading during the week to 9 June after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report on 5 June helped the greenback post its strongest daily gain in more than two months. By the end of the reporting week, the dollar had risen around 0.7% against a basket of major currencies. <span >The one-sided focus on dollar strength triggered a 69% surge in the aggregate net long dollar position against the eight IMM currency futures, lifting it to USD 28 billion, the highest level in fourteen months.</span></span></p> <p><span>Selling was broad-based and led by the euro, where the net long was reduced by 34.9k contracts to 14k contracts, equivalent to around USD 2 billion. This was followed by a reduction in bullish bets on the Australian dollar, and increased short positioning in Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Japanese yen and British pound.</span></p> <p><span>As a result, the speculative net short in the Japanese yen climbed to a fresh 23-month high of 146k contracts, equivalent to roughly USD 11.5 billion. It remains the largest short position held against the dollar despite repeated intervention warnings from Japanese authorities.</span></p> <p> </p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and Dollar index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Commodities </h3> <p class="text--body"> <p><span>In commodities, a 4.5% slump in the Bloomberg Commodity Index triggered a third consecutive week of broad and aggressive selling by managed money accounts, with all but a handful of the 25 major futures contracts tracked in this update recording net selling. Measured by both contract volume and notional value, it was a heavy week for the sector, with liquidation concentrated in Brent crude, gold, soybeans and corn. Over the past three weeks, hedge funds have liquidated close to one million contracts across commodities, by far the largest reduction in positioning seen over the past decade. Importantly, this wave of selling has left positioning considerably leaner, reducing the risk of further forced liquidation and leaving traders better placed to respond to changes in the technical and fundamental outlook.</span></p> </p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Weekly changes in managed money commodity positions - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body"> <p><span>In energy, the Brent crude net long was cut by 43.6k contracts to 208.9k, a five-month low and less than half the 430k-contract peak recorded during the early stages of the Middle East crisis. Selling in WTI remained relatively muted, partly reflecting an already reduced position and continued trader focus on Cushing inventory levels for signs of potential stress that could support WTI relative to Brent.</span></p> <p><span>In metals, 7% and 5% declines in the Bloomberg precious and industrial metals indices respectively drove broad-based selling across all five metals tracked in this report. The gold net long was reduced to 103.7k contracts through a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling, while the recent in-demand HG copper contract saw its net long trimmed by 8% to 71k contracts after reaching a more than five-year high the previous week.</span></p> <p><span>Once again, however, the bulk of the liquidation occurred across the agriculture sector, where positioning continues to unwind at a rapid pace. Since reaching a four-year high last month, the combined net long across 13 major agricultural futures contracts has collapsed by 83% to just 179k contracts. The move has been driven primarily by a 688k-contract reduction in bullish positions across corn, soybeans and wheat, led by corn as incoming harvest pressure weighs on wheat prices and generally favourable US growing conditions improve production prospects for both corn and soybeans. The scale of the decline suggests speculative long liquidation, particularly in corn and soybeans, has amplified an already fundamentally driven correction.</span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions across key commodity futures in the week to 9 June 2026 - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Energy</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Metals</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Agriculture</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that this group tends to <span>anticipate</span>,<span> accelerate</span>, and <span>amplify</span> price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>12 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-slide-as-markets-price-a-tentative-path-to-peace-12062026" data-id="C14F020688304602992456627B337C06" data-type="Article">Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace</a><br /> 9 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-slips-below-200-day-average-as-inflation-jobs-and-fed-risks-bite-09062026" data-id="F5E40862072D4B67939C2CE8EE10AB69" data-type="Article">Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite</a><br /> 8 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-2-june-2026-08062026" data-id="3DEB0D968569401BBFCE06B024A23293" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026</a><br /> 4 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-rally-faces-tariff-roulette-but-fundamentals-remain-tight-04062026" data-id="709882EC371D48F8997BBDC6857538CD" data-type="Article">Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> 30 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rises-with-oil-as-geopolitical-risk-overwhelms-rate-headwinds-30042026" data-id="913BF947FC8F4E0B9FEEC4B848C64291" data-type="Article">Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds</a><br /> 29 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rally-extends-as-strait-disruption-continues-opecs-role-tested-after-uae-exit-29042026" data-id="DC861D31F2184DABB42FFCF9A7E4B68D" data-type="Article">Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit</a><br /> 28 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-face-near-term-pressure-from-oil-driven-inflation-28042026" data-id="AED8E78ECFE845F2B0244ECDB755536D" data-type="Article">Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation</a><br /> 27 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-21-april-2026-27042026" data-id="DE3EE59CB5414C169CCC0958EC816D81" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026</a><br /> 24 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-from-fuel-shortages-to-food-risks-as-hormuz-remains-shut-24042026" data-id="4EC56C4426EC47F090B8C97C9E000F79" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut</a><br /> 22 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/severe-supply-disruption-meets-rising-demand-destruction-as-hormuz-closure-persists-22042026" data-id="FE10F88674FE4991B61D00AEB7CE02FE" data-type="Article">Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists</a><br /> 20 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-14-april-2026-20042026" data-id="E4554C47A3504722A360A2E0F2D0AF3F" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026</a><br /> 14 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-rebuild-as-macro-tailwinds-return-but-gold-awaits-breakout-confirmation-14042026" data-id="CC221C7482B44642AEDE03ECC2A4A592" data-type="Article">Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation</a><br /> 13 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-april-7-2026-13042026" data-id="D60285173A49405CBDCE019B12A938CE" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026</a><br /> 10 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-slumps-but-physical-oil-stress-keeps-the-market-on-edge-10042026" data-id="A3E5D752C7A442C0BA0D67A83BB2297B" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge</a><br /> 9 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rebounds-toward-usd-100-as-hormuz-bottlenecks-keep-physical-market-tight-09042026" data-id="F68C59DB02D5473981BBDC3918E54CD9" data-type="Article">Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight</a><br /> 8 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-correction-meets-macro-reset-as-ceasefire-reverses-key-headwinds-08042026" data-id="5683DD1DFE9644358327272CF413C860" data-type="Article">Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/europes-gas-market-shifts-from-stress-to-relief-but-the-real-test-still-lies-ahead-07042026" data-id="FE54A383A20F4C8988662C4818F003CC" data-type="Article">Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/wti-above-brent-a-curve-distortion-not-a-benchmark-inversion-07042026" data-id="529398E9941F47708FE4F9C3F93EAC27" data-type="Article">WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-31-march-2026-07042026" data-id="CF175C3924F7492FA84FC81B4EBFEEEA" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Forex</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: First Warsh-led FOMC tops central bank bonanza this week.</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:13:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">A new era at the Fed now begins.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4><strong>The latest</strong></h4> <p><strong>USD dips on hopes for durable Iran war ceasefire and as SpaceX IPO finally and successfully out of the way.</strong> Friday’s SpaceX listing felt like a key event risk and it succeeded with flying colors (for now), helping keep global markets in a strong mood, but the market was reluctant to go all-in on a broader risk rally and USD sell-off ahead of the weekend, perhaps fearing another bad headline from the Iran war. Instead, we have the strongest hopes yet that the US and Iran are working toward a more durable ceasefire that will finally see unrestricted shipping resuming through the Hormuz strait. Long term questions remain, especially the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. Worth noting that even as yields retreat, the yen has rallied against the US dollar, but remains weak in the crosses as risk-on encourages carry trading. We won’t know if the JPY can rally of its own accord until or unless we see both lower yields and weaker risk sentiment – something we haven’t seen in a long time. Until then. Elsewhere, the usual pro-cyclical suspects like AUD and SEK (especially on the NOKSEK angle) rallied the most – lots more in the FX board below.</p> <p>Lots to look forward to this week with no fewer than seven of the G10 central banks are set to meet - see previews below. The two highlights are the Bank of Japan early tomorrow, with the bank expected to hike the policy rate 25 bps to 1.00% taking it to the highest since 1995 (even with <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/japans-katayama-no-impact-expected-on-policy-meeting-after-bojs-ueda-hospitalized-202606120121" target="_blank">Governor Ueda issuing a statement from the hospital</a>) and the FOMC, where the very new age of the Kevin Warsh Fed is set to begin – this will likely prove the most momentous pivot in style and substance since the Greenspan-Bernanke pivot starting back in 2006.</p> <p><strong>Chart focus: EURUSD<br /> </strong><span >EURUSD rallied on the combo of risk-on and US treasury yields falling as the latest Iran war ceasefire hopes further cratered crude oil prices. But as per usual of late, the impact on FX and the US dollar is modest and this reversal is weak beer so far, merely shaking out the weak hands that traded the break below 1.1575. Zooming out, EURUSD still needing perhaps 1.1800 to indicate something bigger is afoot to the upside, and a renewed push on 1.1500 to suggest a USD rally will reassert. Whether the USD can develop any energy in either direction will depend in part on how loudly the new Kevin Warsh era at the Fed begins as discussed below.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>Here are brief previews of each of this week’s central bank meets.</p> <p><strong>RBA (Tuesday 0430 GMT):</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced in:</strong> The market has recently shifted to a much longer wait-and-see period for the RBA after the bank made it clear at the last meeting (and the three consecutive hikes) that it wanted to take some time to assess the impact of hikes. Now the market is wondering whether the last hike is in – with only half a hike in total priced into the next few meetings.</p> <p><strong>Thoughts:</strong> The RBA has possibly overplayed its hand with the three prior hikes – strong bias for a “wait and see for now” message from the RBA. At the same time in the background we have the Anthony Albanese government trying to engineer a policy mix to defuse the rise in Australia housing prices, which could bring some trauma to the Australian growth outlook via a negative wealth effect if these policy moves trigger a housing market correction. Very divided opinions on this – so far there has been a general capping effect on house, together with slightly negative trend in some key markets like Sydney.</p> <p><strong>Surprise potential:</strong> Any potential to surprise is likely to the dovish side, but there has already been a dovish shift, so the bar is quite high for this to spark major action.</p> <p><strong>BoJ (Tuesday, likely between 0200 and 0300 GMT but can be slightly earlier or later):</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> The Bank of Japan is a lock to hike the policy rate 25 bps to 1.00%, the highest policy rate since 1995. Beyond that, another hike is seen likely by year end, either in October, or more likely December.</p> <p><strong>Thoughts:</strong> It’s an unusual situation as we have BoJ Governor Ueda in the hospital, only issuing a statement and not present at the BoJ meeting (which saw three hawkish dissenters at the prior meet). Watch for language around reactivity to yen weakness as the Ministry of Finance has gone very quiet after its large intervention efforts started around the 160+ level previously. Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation readings for both the headline and core have been collapsing this year, even all through the initial months of the Iran war. And now add to that the big sell-off in crude oil prices as it looks like Trump wants to do everything he can to back out of the war on almost any terms. As noted above, the yen may only begin rallying organically on both lower global bond yields and risk off. Failing that, preventing the JPY carry trade from continuing and pressure on a weaker currency might require government policy changes that impact how Japan’s savers allocate their funds – essentially some form of capital controls, lite or heavy. No sign of that yet from the Takaichi government.</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> Little potential? The surprise potential policy wise rests mostly with the Takaichi government and Ministry of Finance, with that surprise potential fading as long as inflation prints continue to come in soft.</p> <p><strong>Sweden’s Riksbank (Wednesday 0730 GMT)</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> Unlike the ECB, Sweden’s Riksbank is priced to maintain its lowly 1.75% interest rate for now, only possibly hiking in August or later, with only one full hike priced in through the early November Riksbank meeting.</p> <p><strong>Further thoughts:</strong> The Riksbank has taken a go-slow approach as Sweden’s inflation levels are very orderly this year, only picking up to an incredibly lowly 0.8% year-on-year at the headline for May and at 1.5% at the core.</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> Some mild hawkish potential here if the Riksbank views the SEK weakness of late with a bit of wariness (even if not explicitly mentioning the currency), so there could be some more “optionality” in the language for policy tightening that reads hawkish.</p> <p><strong>US FOMC meeting (Wednesday at 1800 GMT)</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> Important to underline that market pricing feels somewhat irrelevant as there is a lot of uncertainty on the new Fed Chair’s communication style. The market has been dragged into predicting a possible hike by the end of the year even after the last meeting retained the easing bias in the statement.</p> <p><strong>Further thoughts:</strong> Main point of curiosity is around new Fed Chair Warsh’s communication style. As a Wall Street Journal op-ed from Sunday says “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-warsh-chair-communication-d2f2d226?mod=hp_lead_pos3">Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything</a>”. This likely means an eventual halt to further quarterly dot plot projections and maybe even the economic projections. Indeed, Warsh’s distaste for the outdated “forward guidance” policy and excessive transparency stemming from the ZIRP/GFC/Bernanke era is understandable and long past its sell-by date. It’s quite possible the June dot plot will be the Fed’s last. Still, Warsh does not have a majority of fellow Trump nominees on the Fed Board of Governors and whether this era starts with a bang or a whimper is key. The style of the statement and his style at the presser will be critical. If removing forward guidance is the new name of the game, we should look for the new statement to shed the former “easing bias”. An additional possible initiative could be the announcement of a review of the Fed’s communications framework. But that doesn’t mean the new statement will necessarily read hawkish relative to current forward market expectations. With market implied volatility very low, there seems little anticipation of this event risk – but does that also mean a low bar for surprises?</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> Very difficult to see what could prove hawkish, even if shifts that “remove easing bias” initially read algorithmically as knee-jerk hawkish. This is an overall transition to less transparency, not necessarily a hawkish shift relative to what is already priced in. The lean longer term is for a weaker US dollar, but near-term path unclear. If we look over at speculative positions in short-term interest rates, positioning is already very bearish (biased for higher FOMC rate).</p> <p><strong>Switzerland SNB (Thursday 0730 GMT)</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> If you look far enough forward, the market has bought some optionality that the rate hike elsewhere will see the SNB hiking somewhere in the first half of 2027 – remember that the current policy rate is 0.00%, the world’s lowest and is encouraging carry trading using CHF as a funding currency.</p> <p><strong>Further thoughts:</strong> It is hard to have further thoughts about the SNB, which is very much sitting on its hands and likely happy to see the CHF weakening of late, not wanting to make any fuss here as inflation is benign at 0.6% YoY headline in May an 0.3% YoY at the core (!).</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> I don’t see why the SNB should spark notable volatility in either direction.</p> <p><strong>Norway Norges Bank (Thursday 0800 GMT)</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> Very low odds of a hike at this meeting and only slightly higher for the following meeting, with firmer expectations of another rate hike by year end (current policy rate at 4.25%).</p> <p><strong>Further thoughts:</strong> Few, really. It is bearish NOK at the moment that energy prices have corrected sharply, but at the same time, the currency can trade pro-cyclically and lower energy prices are a relief for the rest of Europe. Not sure this meeting weighs heavily for NOK.</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> After the hawkish surprise at the last meeting in bringing the anticipated rate hike forward, and with NOK having surged as much as 10% versus the Euro since Mid-December to multi year highs, there is modest potential for the Norges Bank to lower its longer term rate forecast, but this may not do the NOK much damage if risk sentiment is steady as it has already consolidated lower.</p> <p><strong>UK Bank of England (Thursday 1100 GMT)</strong></p> <p><strong>What is priced into the forward curve:</strong> Virtually nil expectations for a hike at this meeting. Guidance for July is important as that meeting priced at 30% likely for a hike and 20 bps priced into September meeting.</p> <p><strong>Further thoughts:</strong> Let’s recall that as recently as a month ago, the BoE was expected to hike at this week’s meeting, but now the first rate hike of a new cycle has disappeared over the horizon to “possibly” July and “likely” September, with falling crude oil prices pointing to a lack of any fresh urgency to energize rate hike talk again.</p> <p><strong>Surprise side:</strong> Slightly dovish relative to current July hike expectations at about 30% (that was Friday, with crude oil lower, likely to fall further ahead of meeting), though we have already seen a big climb-down in expectations from the BoE overall since the last meeting. This leaves the bar quite high for a surprise outside of possibly reducing July odds. Politics in the UK is likely to drive bigger surprises in the coming weeks as Starmer’s days as PM may be numbered.</p> <p><strong >FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </strong><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p>The biggest signals here in terms of the momentum shift are in precious metals space to the positive – but gold needs 4450-4500 to reverse the recent sell-off versus the USD. The ongoing CNH up-trend is the strongest overall trend. The USD reversal is very modest so far, and big FOMC event risk ahead.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span > <p><span>What to do with these positive trend signals like EURJPY flipping to positive today when we have the threat of intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. With such low volatility, most trending flips feel very fragile, adding little information value here.</span></p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 15 June 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:26:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – </strong><strong>1</strong><strong>5</strong><strong> June </strong><strong>202</strong><strong>6</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and Europe rallied on peace hopes, Asia jumped as lower oil and AI strength lifted risk appetite.</li> <li><strong>Volatili</strong><strong>t</strong><strong>y</strong>: Iran peace optimism, VIX retreats, Fed week ahead</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets</strong>: Bitcoin rebounds, ETF inflows return, Fed meeting in focus, hedging remains elevated</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil tumbles and hard assets rally on interim peace deal; weeks of fund selling leave positioning lean</li> <li><strong>F</strong><strong>ixed</strong> <strong>Income</strong>: Global bonds rally on hopes for durable Iran war ceasefire as crude oil prices retreat.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD sells off on hopes for durable Iran war ceasefire.</li> <li><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong>: US June Empire Manufacturing</li> </ul> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US and Iran </strong><strong>have reached </strong><strong>an interim </strong><strong>accord </strong><strong>to halt the </strong><strong>war </strong><strong>and </strong><strong>reopen </strong><strong>the Strait </strong><strong>of </strong><strong>Hormuz</strong><strong> – where </strong><strong>nearly </strong><strong>600 </strong><strong>vessels </strong><strong>are</strong><strong> </strong><strong>waiting </strong><strong>to </strong><strong>exit - </strong><strong>paving</strong><strong> the way </strong><strong>for </strong><strong>60 days </strong><strong>of </strong><strong>talks on </strong><strong>Tehran’s nuclear </strong><strong>program</strong><strong>.</strong> The agreement includes a ceasefire and relief from sanctions targeting Iran's overseas oil sales, but details such as financial incentives and the removal of sanctions remain unclear. Officials from the two countries will meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the agreement, with key sticking points left for the next stage of talks, including the removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran.</li> <li><strong>The </strong><strong>US</strong><strong> Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in early June 2026 from 44.8 in May</strong>, beating expectations of 46, with the rebound helped by easing gasoline prices and strongest among lower-income consumers. Views on personal finances and business conditions improved but remain well below January and year-ago levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.4%, though inflation concerns remain elevated.</li> <li><strong>US year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% in June 2026 from 4.8% in May</strong>, while the five-year outlook dropped to 3.4% from 3.9%, according to preliminary University of Michigan data.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>0900 – Eurozone April Industrial Production</li> <li>1230 – US June Empire Manufacturing</li> <li>1315 – US May Industrial Production</li> </ul> <p>G7 leaders' summit in France through Wednesday. </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Earnings events</h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Jabil</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Accenture, Kroger</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Friday, the Dow gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%, as peace hopes, lower oil and a calmer volatility backdrop helped sentiment. <strong>SpaceX</strong> surged 19.2% on its Nasdaq debut after the largest initial public offering in history, while Goldman Sachs gained 2.6% as lead underwriter and JPMorgan rose 2.3% with banks. Rocket Lab fell 10.8% as space peers saw profit-taking after the big launch. Markets now turn to the Federal Reserve meeting and the details behind the US-Iran deal.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 rose 1.9% to 633.21 on Friday, while the DAX gained 1.8% and the FTSE 100 advanced 1.6%, as lower oil and Middle East peace hopes outweighed the ECB rate hike. Banks and travel stocks led the move, with Deutsche Bank up 6.6%, HSBC up 3.9% and IAG rising 7.1% as lower fuel costs improved the airline mood. Nokia gained 5.0% after JPMorgan lifted its price target on AI and cloud demand. Investors will watch whether cheaper energy can keep the rally from becoming another one-day sugar rush.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asia traded sharply higher on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 up around 5% and South Korea’s Kospi near 6.0% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained more modestly. The rally followed the US-Iran peace deal and a fall in oil, which helped import-heavy markets and revived demand for AI-linked stocks. In Korea, SK Hynix rose 6.1% and Samsung Electronics gained 4.7%, while Japan’s SoftBank jumped 10% and Tokyo Electron climbed 7.5%. The next test is whether flows broaden beyond chips, because even great rallies need more than one engine.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility eased sharply into the weekend</strong> as investors welcomed reports that the US and Iran may be close to a formal agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded across markets. The <strong>VIX </strong>closed at <strong>17.68 (-9.1%)</strong>, while shorter-term gauges also moved lower, with <strong>VIX1D at 19.12 (-9.3%)</strong> and <strong>VIX9D at 17.26 (-16.5%)</strong>. Equity futures rallied, bond yields declined and oil prices fell as investors reassessed inflation risks and the likelihood of further disruptions to global energy supplies.</li> <li>While the market is embracing the prospect of a peace deal, <strong>uncertainty has not disappeared</strong>. Iran has yet to formally confirm the agreement, and President Trump indicated military action could resume if nuclear negotiations fail. Attention now turns to this week's <strong>Federal Reserve meeting</strong>, where investors will focus on Wednesday's rate decision, updated economic projections and <strong>Chair Kevin Warsh's first post-meeting press conference</strong>. Retail sales data and inflation readings from both the UK and eurozone could also influence sentiment.</li> <li><strong>SPX expected move:</strong> Options markets imply a move of approximately <strong>±118 points (±1.59%)</strong> into Thursday's 18 June expiration, suggesting an indicative range of roughly <strong>7,313 to 7,549</strong> around Friday's close of <strong>7,431</strong>.</li> <li><strong>Today's expiry indicator:</strong> Same-day SPX options imply a move of approximately <strong>±62 points (±0.83%)</strong>. Downside protection remains modestly more expensive than upside exposure, with the 7,375 put carrying higher implied volatility than a similarly distant call. The message from the options market is clear: investors are becoming more optimistic, but they are not abandoning their hedges ahead of a week packed with central-bank and macroeconomic catalysts.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets began the week on a stronger footing</strong> as improving geopolitical sentiment, lower oil prices and renewed ETF demand helped support risk appetite. <strong>Bitcoin </strong>traded near <strong>$65,700</strong>, extending its recovery from this month's lows below $60,000, while <strong>Ethereum </strong>climbed back toward <strong>$1,716</strong>. Solana held near <strong>$71</strong>, XRP traded around <strong>$1.18</strong>, and most major altcoins moved higher as investors rotated back into risk assets.</li> <li><strong>Institutional demand also showed signs of improvement</strong>. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded <strong>$85.9 million of net inflows on Friday</strong>, the strongest daily intake in several weeks, with <strong>IBIT attracting $57.7 million</strong>. That marked a notable shift after a prolonged period of outflows and suggests institutional investors may be rebuilding exposure as geopolitical tensions ease. ETHA, by contrast, recorded modest outflows and continues to trail bitcoin-focused products in terms of investor demand.</li> <li>Options activity suggests investors remain cautious beneath the surface. Several large protective structures appeared across <strong>IBIT</strong>, <strong>RIOT</strong>, <strong>CIFR </strong>and <strong>IREN</strong>, indicating continued demand for downside protection ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting. However, the broader picture looked more like event-risk hedging than a bearish call on the sector. If ETF inflows continue to improve and a formal US-Iran agreement is signed, the crypto market could receive an additional boost from improving risk sentiment and easing energy-market concerns.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil prices slumped further </strong>after the US and Iran agreed to an interim deal aimed at ending the war, paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing a month-long supply crunch. Brent crude traded near USD 83.50 per barrel as traders braced for a surge in supply from tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf and now preparing to transit the Strait.</li> <li>Whether prices, currently around USD 13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices. The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market.</li> <li><strong>Gold and other hard assets rallied strongly</strong> after the announcement of an interim peace deal, as easing concerns over energy prices helped reduce the inflation threat that has weighed heavily on the sector throughout the Middle East conflict. Lower oil prices have also prompted traders to scale back expectations for further interest-rate hikes, providing an additional tailwind for precious metals. Following last week's capitulation-style sell-off in both gold and silver, positioning has become considerably cleaner, leaving traders better placed to respond to shifts in either the technical or fundamental outlook. For gold, the key upside hurdle remains the 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,450, a level that may determine whether the latest rebound develops into a more sustained recovery.</li> <li><strong>A month-long correction in commodities</strong><strong> triggered a third consecutive week of heavy fund liquidation</strong> according to the latest COT report covering the week to 9 June. Hedge funds were net sellers of all but a few of the major commodities, with notable selling in Brent crude, gold and major grain contracts. Importantly, positioning across several sectors has now been substantially reduced, with the Brent crude net long falling to a five-month low and the gold net long dropping to its lowest level in more than a year. Agriculture has seen the most dramatic adjustment, with the combined net long across major crop futures collapsing by 83% from last month's four-year high. The scale of this liquidation leaves positioning considerably cleaner, leaving traders better placed to respond to shifts in either the technical or fundamental outlook.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields </strong><strong>retreated in early t</strong><strong>rading Monday on the </strong><strong>lag</strong><strong>er new </strong><strong>drop in</strong><strong> oil prices as </strong><strong>markets</strong><strong> </strong><strong>are more </strong><strong>convinced </strong><strong>now </strong><strong>that </strong><strong>a ne</strong><strong>w</strong><strong> Iran War c</strong><strong>easefire will </strong><strong>hold</strong><strong>. </strong>The benchmark 2-year treasury yield gapped lower, trading some five basis points below Friday’s close and below 4.03% as traders eye the key round 4.00% level that the yield rose above in mid-May. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield hovered some five basis points lower from Friday’s close as well’, dipping below 4.43% and therefore just below the range lows of earlier this month.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond</strong><strong> yields </strong><strong>dipped to start</strong><strong> the </strong><strong>week on the </strong><strong>large </strong><strong>drop in crude oil prices</strong><strong>. </strong>The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped 1.5 basis points and below 1.40% as the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.00% at its meeting Tuesday, taking it to the highest level since 1995. At the longer end of the yield curve, the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell more than five basis points at one point to 2.56% before stabilizing near 2.58%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar</strong><strong> </strong><strong>sold </strong><strong>off </strong><strong>as </strong><strong>hopes for </strong><strong>a durable</strong><strong> Iran war ceasefire </strong><strong>washed over global markets</strong>, driving crude oil prices and US treasury yields lower. <strong>EURUSD</strong> pulled back above the key 1.1575-1.1600 resistance and traded near 1.1620 by early European hours Monday. <strong>AUDUSD</strong> rose clear of 0.7085, up from its Friday close below 0.7050.<strong> </strong></li> <li><strong>USDJPY fell back below the 160.00 level briefly</strong><strong> early Monday, but then remained near that level even as the USD was weaker elsewhere ahead of Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting</strong>, which is expected to deliver a 25 basis point hike to take the BoJ policy rate to its highest since 1995 at 1.00%. But the market may wonder how strongly the Bank will guide for further policy tightening, given Japan’s recently softening inflation data. </li> <li><strong>The pro-cyclical Swedish krone rose sharply</strong><strong> </strong>as oil prices plummeted early Monday, pushing <strong>NOKSEK</strong> to new lows since May, down over 0.75% to near 0.9860 while <strong>EURSEK</strong> fell a similar amount, to below 10.86. <strong>Sweden’s Riksbank</strong> meets early Wednesday and is expected to leave its rate at 1.75% for now.</li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Trader playbook: How to position for a US-Iran peace deal</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 05:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Preliminary peace framework, not a final deal:</span></strong><span> The US and Iran appear to have reached a framework that could end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start wider talks on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme. Formal signing is expected on <strong>June 19</strong>, with a <strong>60-day ceasefire window</strong> for negotiations. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Markets are pricing relief first:</span></strong><span> The reaction is risk-on — oil lower, equities higher, USD softer and gold higher. </span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Two caveats still matter:</span></strong><span> First, the deal has many political and implementation risks, including signing risk, Israel risk, nuclear talks and sanctions sequencing. Second, even if the deal is signed, oil flows may take time to normalise because Hormuz reopening depends on shipping safety, insurance costs, inspections, security guarantees and tanker movement.</span></p> </li> </ul> <p class="text--body"><span></span><span >Markets have the headline they wanted: the US and Iran appear to have reached a preliminary peace framework that could end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start wider talks on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><span><strong>Key details:</strong></span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Formal signing expected in Switzerland on <strong>June 19</strong></span></li> <li><span>Strait of Hormuz reopening process likely to be phased</span></li> <li><span>Wider nuclear and sanctions talks expected during a <strong>60-day ceasefire window</strong></span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>How markets are reacting</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li><span>The first reaction has been a clear <strong>risk-on move</strong>:</span></li> <li><strong><span>Oil moved lower</span></strong><span> as the market removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Equities are higher</span></strong><span> as lower oil reduces stagflation fears and supports risk appetite.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The US dollar is softer</span></strong><span> as safe-haven demand fades and Fed hike expectations ease.</span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold is rising</strong><span >, which may look counterintuitive, but makes sense. Gold had not behaved like a classic safe haven during the conflict because markets were focused on the inflation channel: higher oil, higher inflation risk, higher yields and more Fed hawkishness. If the peace framework lowers oil and unwinds Fed hike bets, gold can benefit from softer yields and a weaker dollar.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Two big caveats</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>1. The deal still has many risks</span></strong></p> <p><span>This is a framework, not a fully tested peace deal.</span></p> <p><span>Key risks include:</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Signing risk:</span></strong><span> the agreement still needs to be formally signed on June 19.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Messaging risk:</span></strong><span> Washington and Tehran may describe the deal differently.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Israel risk:</span></strong><span> any renewed strike could quickly rebuild the geopolitical premium.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Nuclear talks risk:</span></strong><span> the 60-day window could expose gaps on inspections, uranium, sanctions relief and verification.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Implementation risk:</span></strong><span> both sides still need to agree on the details that matter most, including Hormuz access, sanctions sequencing and security guarantees.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>2. Oil flows may take time to normalise even after a deal</span></strong></p> <p><span>Even if the deal is signed, oil flows may not return to normal immediately.</span></p> <p><span>Reopening Hormuz is not just a political decision. Tankers, insurers and shippers need proof that the route is safe and commercially viable again.</span></p> <p><span>Potential delays include:</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Mine-clearing</span></li> <li><span>Vessel inspections</span></li> <li><span>Security guarantees</span></li> <li><span>Insurance costs</span></li> <li><span>Port congestion</span></li> <li><span>Shipping backlogs</span></li> <li><span>Uncertainty over who monitors the route</span></li> </ul> <p><span>So oil can fall on the headline, but further downside needs evidence that physical flows are actually improving.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Market logic: price first, verify later</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Markets do not wait for every tanker to move.</span></p> <p><span>They will trade the change in direction first:</span></p> <ul> <li><span>Lower probability of an energy shock</span></li> <li><span>Lower inflation risk from oil</span></li> <li><span>Lower Fed hike risk</span></li> <li><span>Better backdrop for risk assets</span></li> <li><span>Softer safe-haven demand for the US dollar</span></li> </ul> <p><span>That makes this a tactical relief trade — but not yet a structural reset.</span></p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong >Oil: lower first, but watch the second move</strong></h3> <p><span>The obvious first trade is lower oil.</span></p> <p><span>The war premium should come out of crude if the peace framework holds, and that keeps pressure on energy equities while supporting airlines, travel, logistics and consumer sectors. But the first drop is the easy part. Further downside needs proof that Hormuz traffic is normalising, insurance costs are falling and shipping flows are actually improving.</span></p> <p><span>Technically, Brent has broken sharply lower and is now trading around <strong>$83/bbl</strong>, below its <strong>50-day moving average near $100</strong> and <strong>100-day moving average near $93</strong>. That confirms momentum has turned lower in the near term. The next key level to watch is the <strong>200-day moving average around $78/bbl</strong>. A break below that would suggest the market is removing more than just the immediate war premium. But if Brent holds above the 200DMA, the move may still be a fast geopolitical unwind rather than a deeper bearish trend.</span></p> <p><span>The cleaner trade may be to <strong>fade oil rallies</strong> if the deal progresses, rather than chase crude aggressively lower after the first move.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Equities: risk-on, especially oil importers</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Equities should like this.</span></p> <p><span>Lower oil reduces the stagflation risk that had been hanging over markets. It helps margins, consumers and inflation expectations. The likely winners are airlines, travel, logistics, consumer discretionary, industrials and Asia oil importers such as India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.</span></p> <p><span>US equities could also benefit if last week’s Fed hike bets unwind. That would support growth, tech and long-duration assets.</span></p> <p><span>Technically, the Nasdaq 100 has bounced back toward <strong>29,600</strong>, recovering from last week’s pullback and reclaiming the <strong>50% retracement area near 29,480</strong>. The next test is the <strong>61.8% retracement near 29,780</strong>, followed by the <strong>76.4% level around 30,160</strong>. A move through those levels would suggest momentum buyers are returning. But failure there would leave this looking more like a relief bounce after a sharp selloff, rather than a clean return to new highs.</span></p> <p><span>The key signal to watch: does the rally broaden beyond mega-cap tech? A healthier rally should include cyclicals, transports, small caps and high-beta sectors.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Gold: relief bounce, but not yet a clean bullish reversal</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Gold is the interesting one. Normally, a peace deal would be expected to hurt gold because safe-haven demand fades. But this conflict has not been a clean safe-haven event for gold.</span></p> <p><span>Gold had been under pressure because markets were focused on the inflation channel: higher oil, higher inflation risk, higher bond yields, more Fed hawkishness and a stronger dollar.</span></p> <p><span>That is why the peace framework has actually helped gold. Lower oil reduces the inflation shock and Fed hike risk, while a softer dollar supports precious metals. The rally reflects hopes that a successful agreement could ease inflation pressures through lower energy prices, reduce pressure on bond yields, and allow investors to refocus on longer-term supportive themes such as fiscal debt concerns, central-bank diversification away from the dollar and ongoing geopolitical fragmentation.</span></p> <p><span>But technically, gold still needs to reclaim its <strong>200-day moving average around $4,450/oz</strong> to convince momentum buyers that the uptrend is back. Until then, this looks more like a relief bounce than a clean bullish reversal.</span></p> <p><span>Gold therefore remains supported by a softer Fed/dollar backdrop and longer-term structural demand, but the technical picture still needs confirmation.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>FX: softer dollar, oil importers stronger</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The dollar should lose some safe-haven support if the deal holds.</span></p> <p><span>Lower oil also reduces the inflation pressure that had supported Fed hike bets, which can weigh on the dollar. Oil-importer currencies should benefit more than oil-exporter currencies, with SGD, INR, KRW and JPY potential beneficiaries. CAD and NOK could lag if crude keeps falling.</span></p> <p><span>Technically, EUR/USD has bounced back toward <strong>1.1600</strong>, but it still needs to clear nearby resistance to confirm broader dollar weakness. The first levels to watch are around <strong>1.1630</strong>, then the cluster of moving averages around <strong>1.1670–1.1690</strong>. A break above that zone would strengthen the case for a larger USD pullback. Until then, EUR/USD is recovering, but not yet breaking out.</span></p> <p><span>For Asia, lower oil remains a macro tailwind because it eases import bills and inflation pressure.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>Trader positioning summary</span></strong></h3> <p><strong><span>Oil</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Bearish first reaction</span></li> <li><span>Fade rallies if the deal progresses</span></li> <li><span>Avoid chasing too far until physical flows improve</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Risk-on bias</span></li> <li><span>Prefer tech, travel, consumer and Asia oil importers</span></li> <li><span>Watch for rally breadth</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Gold</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Relief bounce as inflation fears ease</span></li> <li><span>Critical test at 200-day moving average</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Softer USD bias</span></li> <li><span>Oil importers stronger than oil exporters</span></li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong><span>What to watch next</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Key checkpoints:</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>June 19 signing</span></strong></li> <li><span>Whether US and Iran describe the deal the same way</span></li> <li><span>Israel’s response</span></li> <li><strong><span>Actual tanker movement through Hormuz</span></strong></li> <li><span>Insurance and shipping costs</span></li> <li><span>Progress in the 60-day nuclear negotiation window</span></li> <li><span>Oil price reaction after the first relief move</span></li> <li><span>Fed pricing and US yields</span></li> </ul> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h2 class="heading--2"><strong><span>Bottom line</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Markets are likely to price the peace dividend before peace is fully proven. The immediate playbook is a relief trade: oil lower as the war premium unwinds, equities higher as stagflation risks fade, the dollar softer as safe-haven demand and Fed hike expectations ease, and gold potentially supported rather than crushed as lower oil reduces inflation pressure and bond-yield stress.</span></p> <p><span>But this is not yet a structural reset. The June 19 signing, the durability of the ceasefire, Israel’s response, the details of sanctions and nuclear negotiations, and the actual normalisation of Hormuz shipping flows will decide whether this rally has legs. For now, traders can lean into the risk-on move, but should treat it as tactical and headline-sensitive.</span></p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>SpaceX </span></div> </article> <article> <h1>SpaceX IPO: Investor Q&A on the world’s most talked-about listing</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><span><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></span></h2> <ul> <li><strong>SpaceX had a successful IPO, but the bigger question is what investors are really buying. </strong>SpaceX’s strong debut shows huge demand, but investors are not just buying rockets. They are buying launch services, Starlink, defence infrastructure, Starship, direct-to-cell connectivity and long-term AI/space optionality.</li> <li><strong>The valuation is high because markets are pricing SpaceX as a platform, not a traditional aerospace company. </strong>At around <strong>US$1.77tn at IPO</strong> and above <strong>US$2tn after listing</strong>, investors are paying for future dominance in space infrastructure. That may be justified if Starlink scales and launch costs keep falling, but it also means a lot of success is already priced in.</li> <li><strong>SpaceX could make the space economy a mainstream investment theme. </strong>The IPO gives public markets a mega-cap anchor for space, with potential spillovers into aerospace, defence, satellites, telecom infrastructure, geospatial data and ETFs. But the key discipline remains the same: the theme can be powerful, but entry price still matters.</li> </ul> <hr /> SpaceX is not a simple IPO story. <p><span>Yes, the headline is massive: the largest public market debut in history, a valuation that immediately placed it among the world’s most valuable companies, and retail excitement that few listings have ever generated.</span></p> <p><span>But for investors, the real questions go beyond the first-day pop.</span></p> <p><span>Let’s break it down.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>1. How did SpaceX list, and how did the stock perform?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>SpaceX listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX in what became the largest IPO on record.</span></p> <p><span>The company priced its IPO at US$135 per share, raised about US$75 billion, and was valued at roughly US$1.77 trillion at the IPO price.</span></p> <p><span>The stock opened above the issue price and closed its first trading day at US$160.95, up about 19%. That pushed SpaceX’s market value above US$2 trillion almost immediately.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>2. What does SpaceX actually do?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>SpaceX is not just a rocket company.</span></p> <p><span>It has several business lines:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Launch services:</span></strong><span> SpaceX launches satellites, cargo and crew into orbit using reusable rockets. Falcon 9 is the workhorse rocket, Falcon Heavy is used for heavier missions, and Dragon carries cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Starlink:</span></strong><span> This is the satellite internet business. It provides broadband connectivity to consumers, enterprises, aircraft, ships, remote regions and governments.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Defence and government infrastructure:</span></strong><span> Through services such as Starshield, SpaceX is increasingly tied to secure communications, surveillance, battlefield connectivity and sovereign space infrastructure.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Starship:</span></strong><span> This is the next-generation rocket system designed for much larger payloads, lunar missions, Mars ambitions and potentially future space infrastructure.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Future optionality:</span></strong><span> This includes direct-to-cell connectivity, orbital infrastructure, space-based data, AI-linked infrastructure and the longer-term dream of making space a commercial platform.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The scale is already significant.</span></p> <p><span>In 2025, SpaceX completed around 165 orbital launches, setting another annual launch record. The reusable Falcon 9 rocket powered most of that cadence. The company also conducted five Starship test flights, showing how central Starship is to the next stage of the story.</span></p> <p><span>That is why SpaceX is being valued as more than a launch company. It is being valued as a space infrastructure platform.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>3. What are investors really buying?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Investors are buying three layers of SpaceX.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Today’s business:</span></strong><span> Launch services, Starlink subscriptions, government contracts and defence-related revenue.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Tomorrow’s platform:</span></strong><span> A global satellite communications network, cheaper access to orbit, direct-to-cell connectivity and a growing role in defence and enterprise connectivity.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The distant dream:</span></strong><span> Mars, space manufacturing, orbital infrastructure, AI-linked space data and the possibility that space becomes a major commercial layer of the global economy.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>That third layer is important. It is also where the risk sits.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX is a real company with real revenue. But part of the valuation is clearly attached to businesses that are still being built.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>4. What is the main revenue driver?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The key revenue driver is Starlink.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX generated about US$18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up roughly 33% from the previous year. Starlink accounted for about 60% of that revenue, making it the company’s main economic engine.</span></p> <p><span>Starlink has over 10 million users and roughly 9,600 satellites in orbit. It is estimated that Starlink’s 2025 revenue was around US$11.4 billion.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because Starlink turns SpaceX from a project-based launch company into a recurring-revenue infrastructure business.</span></p> <p><span>Markets generally pay higher multiples for recurring revenue, network effects and scalable platforms than for one-off hardware or contract work. If Starlink keeps growing, investors may value SpaceX more like a global connectivity platform than a traditional aerospace contractor.</span></p> <p><span>Launch is still critical because it gives SpaceX cost control and strategic advantage. But Starlink is likely the business investors will watch most closely for revenue growth, margins and cash flow.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>5. Is SpaceX profitable? What about margins?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This is where investors need to look under the hood.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX made a profit of about US$791 million in 2024, helped by the growth of Starlink and the reusable rocket launch business. But in 2025, the company swung to a net loss of about US$4.9 billion.</span></p> <p><span>The issue is not that every part of SpaceX is broken. It is that the profitable parts are being offset by heavy spending elsewhere.</span></p> <p><span>The business mix looks something like this:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Starlink:</span></strong><span> The strongest recurring-revenue engine and likely the most important profit driver.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Launch services:</span></strong><span> Strategic and increasingly scaled, helped by reusable rockets and high launch cadence.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Starship:</span></strong><span> Long-term strategic value, but capital intensive today.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI and xAI-related spending:</span></strong><span> Potentially exciting, but currently a major drag.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Defence and government contracts:</span></strong><span> Potentially more resilient revenue, but tied to political, procurement and security risks.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>The AI segment is reportedly the biggest drag. It generated about US$3.2 billion of revenue in 2025, but posted an operating loss of around US$6.4 billion.</span></p> <p><span>That is the trade-off investors are buying: a company with strong revenue growth and powerful platforms, but also very high investment needs.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>6. How much cash is SpaceX burning?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>SpaceX is still a capital-hungry business.</span></p> <p><span>The company reportedly had an accumulated deficit of about US$41.3 billion as of the end of March 2026. It also posted a net loss of around US$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.</span></p> <p><span>Starship and Super Heavy development had already required more than US$15 billion of capex through 2025, with around US$3 billion of Starship-related development costs in 2025.</span></p> <p><span>That is the reality behind the dream.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX has real revenue, real scale and real strategic importance. But it is also trying to fund multiple expensive projects at the same time:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Starlink expansion</span></li> <li><span>Starship and Super Heavy</span></li> <li><span>Direct-to-cell connectivity</span></li> <li><span>AI infrastructure</span></li> <li><span>Defence and government infrastructure</span></li> <li><span>Longer-term space ambitions</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For investors, the question is not whether SpaceX is exciting. It is whether the cash-generating businesses can keep up with the cash-burning ambitions.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>7. Why is the valuation so high?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>SpaceX IPOed at roughly US$1.77 trillion and quickly traded above US$2 trillion in market value. That is a huge valuation for a company that generated about US$18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and a net loss.</span></p> <p><span>At the IPO price, SpaceX was reportedly trading at a trailing price-to-sales multiple of roughly 94x. That is above many mega-cap technology companies and closer to high-growth space peers.</span></p> <p><span>There are five reasons the market is willing to pay so much:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Scarcity:</span></strong><span> There are very few listed ways to invest directly in the space economy at this scale.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Market leadership:</span></strong><span> SpaceX has changed the economics of getting to orbit through reusable rockets and high launch frequency.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Starlink:</span></strong><span> If Starlink becomes a global connectivity layer, investors may value it less like a satellite business and more like telecom, data infrastructure or platform software.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Defence:</span></strong><span> Space is increasingly becoming strategic infrastructure for governments.</span></li> <li><strong><span>The Musk factor:</span></strong><span> Musk companies are different. Investors do not only pay for today’s product. They pay for tomorrow’s platform and the distant dream after that.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>Tesla was never valued only as a car company. It was valued as an EV, battery, software, autonomy, robotics and energy platform.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX may be getting the same treatment.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is that a lot of future success is already embedded in the price.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>8. Is the valuation justified?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>It depends how investors frame the company.</span></p> <p><span>If SpaceX is valued only on current revenue and earnings, the valuation looks stretched. A company with US$18.7 billion of revenue, a US$4.9 billion net loss and a valuation above US$1.7 trillion is not cheap by conventional metrics.</span></p> <p><span>If it is valued as a monopoly-like space infrastructure platform with launch, broadband, defence, direct-to-cell, AI infrastructure and long-term orbital optionality, the valuation becomes easier to understand — but still demanding.</span></p> <p><span>That distinction matters.</span></p> <p><span>A high valuation is not automatically wrong. But it does raise the bar. SpaceX will need to prove that it can turn launch leadership, Starlink growth and space infrastructure into durable cash flows.</span></p> <p><span>The market may be willing to pay for the dream. But over time, it will still ask for numbers.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>9. Why do people call this the “AWS moment” for space?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>AWS changed the internet economy because it made computing cheaper, scalable and available on demand.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX may be doing something similar for space.</span></p> <p><span>Lower launch costs can unlock new business models:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>More satellites</span></li> <li><span>Better global broadband</span></li> <li><span>Defence surveillance</span></li> <li><span>Climate monitoring</span></li> <li><span>Earth observation</span></li> <li><span>Space manufacturing</span></li> <li><span>Autonomous systems</span></li> <li><span>Data services</span></li> <li><span>Communications infrastructure</span></li> </ul> <p><span>That is why SpaceX’s impact may be bigger than SpaceX itself.</span></p> <p><span>If access to orbit becomes cheaper, faster and more routine, space can move from a government-led science project to a commercial infrastructure layer.</span></p> <p><span>That is the real investment story.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>10. What does the SpaceX IPO mean for investors?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The SpaceX IPO opens up the space economy as a mainstream investable theme.</span></p> <p><span>The global space economy was estimated at about US$630 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach about US$1.8 trillion by 2035. That means investors are not only looking at rockets. They are looking at communications, navigation, Earth observation, defence, data and downstream services that depend on space infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>Until now, space investing was either too private, too speculative or too niche for many investors. SpaceX changes that. It gives public markets a mega-cap anchor for the theme.</span></p> <p><span>But investors do not need to think about the opportunity only through SpaceX.</span></p> <p><span>The broader space economy can be simplified into three investable buckets:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Infrastructure:</span></strong><span> Launch, satellites, communications networks and ground systems.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Defence and security:</span></strong><span> Surveillance, secure communications, missile tracking, cyber and sovereign space infrastructure.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Data and services:</span></strong><span> Earth observation, mapping, weather, logistics, connectivity and AI-linked data applications.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>In other words, SpaceX may be the company that gets investors excited. But the investable opportunity may extend across the ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>The key is to separate the theme from the stock price.</span></p> <p><span>Space may be a powerful long-term theme. That does not mean every space-related stock will win, or that any valuation can be justified.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>11. What are the simpler ways to think about space economy exposure?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Investors do not need a long shopping list. A simpler framework is more useful.</span></p> <p><span>There are three ways to think about exposure.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Direct exposure:</span></strong><span> SpaceX itself, for investors comfortable with valuation risk, IPO volatility and company-specific execution risk.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Ecosystem exposure:</span></strong><span> Companies linked to aerospace, defence, satellites, telecom infrastructure, semiconductors, sensors, cybersecurity and geospatial data.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Diversified exposure:</span></strong><span> Space, aerospace and defence ETFs, which can reduce single-stock risk but may also include companies with very different business models.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span> <p><span>Saxo’s <a href="https://social.saxo/q8omru9?uuid=jy4XEXq">Space Economy shortlist</a> offers access to the space economy through ETFs and listed companies across launch systems, satellite communications, data and analytics, and defense suppliers.</span></p> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>12. What does SpaceX mean for passive investors?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This is one of the most important questions.</span></p> <p><span>SpaceX is now so large that many investors may end up owning it even if they never buy the stock directly.</span></p> <p><span>That happens through index inclusion.</span></p> <p><span>Nasdaq has introduced a fast-entry route that could allow SpaceX to enter the Nasdaq-100 as soon as <strong>15 trading days after its IPO</strong>. FTSE Russell has also changed its rules so very large IPOs can enter Russell US indexes after just <strong>five trading days</strong>, if they meet the required public-float value threshold. S&P Dow Jones, however, has not created the same fast-track route for the S&P 500, so SpaceX may not enter that benchmark immediately.</span></p> <p><span>For passive investors, this matters.</span></p> <p><span>If SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 or FTSE Russell-linked indexes, ETFs and index funds tracking those benchmarks may need to buy the stock mechanically. That can create forced demand.</span></p> <p><span>There is also a risk. If index funds are forced to buy after a big first-day move, passive investors may end up owning SpaceX at a much higher valuation than IPO investors. So index inclusion can create demand, but it does not remove valuation risk.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>13. Could we see Magnificent 7 selling to buy SpaceX?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Yes, that is possible.</span></p> <p><span>There are two channels.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Active investors may need to create room.</span></strong><span> If a large new mega-cap enters the market, portfolio managers who want exposure may fund it by trimming existing winners. The easiest source of cash is often the most liquid and most profitable positions — which means the Magnificent 7.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Retail investors may also rotate.</span></strong><span> If they want SpaceX but do not have fresh cash, they may sell what they already own. That could mean AI winners, large-cap tech or Tesla.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>This does not mean the Magnificent 7 story is broken. But it can create near-term pressure if SpaceX becomes a major liquidity event.</span></p> <p><span>The market does not create new money out of nowhere. Sometimes, to buy the new dream, investors sell part of the old dream.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>14. Could SpaceX become a risk to the AI trade?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Indirectly, yes.</span></p> <p><span>The AI trade has already become crowded. If investors need liquidity for SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic or other mega-IPOs, some money may come out of existing AI winners.</span></p> <p><span>There is also narrative overlap. SpaceX is not only a space story. It is increasingly being discussed as a future AI infrastructure story, especially after the xAI transaction and the discussion around orbital compute.</span></p> <p><span>But this is also one of the riskiest parts of the story.</span></p> <p><span>The current financials suggest that AI is still a drag, not a profit engine. The AI segment reportedly lost more than US$6 billion in 2025. So investors need to separate the proven businesses — launch and Starlink — from the long-term AI pitch.</span></p> <p><span>The risk for markets is not that AI disappears. It is that investors suddenly have more mega-cap dreams to fund.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>15. What should investors watch next?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Investors should watch six things:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Starlink growth:</span></strong><span> Subscriber numbers, enterprise adoption, aviation, maritime, government demand and direct-to-cell partnerships.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ARPU:</span></strong><span> Starlink’s average revenue per user has reportedly fallen as it expands into lower-income geographies and uses more aggressive pricing. That supports subscriber growth, but it also raises margin questions.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Margins and cash flow:</span></strong><span> Revenue growth is important, but investors will want to see whether SpaceX can turn scale into sustainable profitability.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Capex:</span></strong><span> SpaceX’s ambitions are enormous, but they are not cheap. Investors need to watch how much cash is being consumed by Starship, satellites, AI infrastructure and long-term projects.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Index inclusion:</span></strong><span> The timing of inclusion into major benchmarks could create another wave of demand, especially from passive funds.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Retail behaviour:</span></strong><span> If the stock becomes a FOMO trade, volatility may rise. A great company can still be a difficult stock if too much optimism is priced in too quickly.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>16. What are the biggest risks?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The biggest risks are:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Valuation risk:</span></strong><span> The stock may already price in many years of success.</span></li> <li><strong><span>IPO mechanics:</span></strong><span> If retail demand is very high and allocation is limited, some investors may end up buying after the first-day excitement at a much higher price.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Governance risk:</span></strong><span> Musk companies often come with visionary leadership, but also key-person risk, political risk, communication risk and capital allocation questions.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Execution risk:</span></strong><span> SpaceX has several powerful businesses, but the most exciting parts of the valuation depend on future markets that are not fully proven yet.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Capital intensity:</span></strong><span> Space is expensive. Even market leaders need to keep investing heavily.</span></li> <li><strong><span>AI dilution:</span></strong><span> The AI story may support the valuation narrative, but today it is also a major source of losses.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Theme confusion:</span></strong><span> SpaceX is a real company with real revenue, but not every space-related stock will be a winner. A strong theme can still produce weak investments if the entry price is wrong.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>17. What is the balanced investor view?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>SpaceX may be one of the most important IPOs ever because it could change how investors think about space.</span></p> <p><span>It is not just about rockets. It is about cheaper access to orbit, global connectivity, defence infrastructure, space data, AI infrastructure and a new commercial layer above Earth.</span></p> <p><span>But the excitement should not erase discipline.</span></p> <p><span>The right question is not simply: “Is SpaceX an exciting company?”</span></p> <p><span>It clearly is.</span></p> <p><span>The better question is: “How much of that future is already priced in?”</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the opportunity may come in three forms:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Direct exposure to SpaceX for those comfortable with valuation and volatility.</span></li> <li><span>Broader exposure through space, aerospace, defence, telecom, cyber and data infrastructure.</span></li> <li><span>Indirect exposure through ETFs, where index rules may determine whether investors own SpaceX sooner or later.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>SpaceX may be the company that puts the space economy on every investor’s map.</span></p> <p><span>But as always, the theme can be powerful and the entry point can still matter.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>SpaceX </span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 15 June, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US–Iran agrees to peace deal; Deal to be signed 19<sup>th</sup> June</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>SpaceX surged 19% on debut; S&P futures up 0.8% on US Iran deal</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>US-Iran deal hurts dollar; risk currencies rally, yen notably underperforms</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>WTI plunges towards $80 and gold gaps up to $4,300</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasuries rally as 10 year yield nears 4.4%</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span><span ></span></p> <p> <span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US and Iran agreed to a peace deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by week’s end, allowing Persian Gulf oil shipments to resume and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports.</span></strong></span><span> The pact reportedly includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear program in return for economic incentives, with full details to follow a signing in Switzerland.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in early June 2026 from 44.8 in May</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations of 46, with the rebound helped by easing gasoline prices and strongest among lower-income consumers. Views on personal finances and business conditions improved but remain well below January and year-ago levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.4%, though inflation concerns remain elevated.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% in June 2026 from 4.8% in May</span></strong></span><span>, while the five-year outlook dropped to 3.4% from 3.9%, according to preliminary University of Michigan data.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US —</strong> US equities closed higher on Friday, June 13, with all three major indexes gaining 0.6%–0.7% on the week. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Friday, the Dow added 0.7% led by financials, while the Nasdaq lagged slightly. <strong>The standout mover was SpaceX (SPCX), which surged 19% on its Nasdaq debut</strong> — the largest IPO in history at $75bn — minting Elon Musk as the world's first trillionaire. The VIX closed the week at 17.68, down 18% WoW. In after-hours/Sunday futures trading, S&P 500 futures rose ~0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed ~1.2% following confirmation of the US-Iran peace deal.</li> <li><strong>EU —</strong> European equities climbed back toward record territory last week despite absorbing an ECB rate hike and Middle East volatility. The Stoxx 600 advanced 1.7% on the week, with Friday alone seeing a 1.9% gain led by banks. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.07% on the week to 6,187.63. The DAX gained 1.8% on Friday, with Deutsche Bank up 6.6%. The FTSE 100 rose 1.6% on Friday, with HSBC +3.9% and IAG +7.1%. Nokia soared 10% on a JPMorgan upgrade. Italian financials were notable, with Banca Monte dei Paschi gaining 19% on the week amid a potential bidding battle.</li> <li><strong>Asia —</strong> Asian equities had a highly volatile week. The Hang Seng rose 1.9% on Friday, June 12, to 24,718, led by HSBC (+3.1%) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (+15.2%). The Kospi was the most dramatic mover, closing up 4.6% on Friday at 8,123 — though it sharply pared gains of over 6% intraday after reports emerged that Korean banks were curbing hedge fund leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The Nikkei joined the broader rally on Friday. The Kospi has surged over 100% YTD, with gains heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix. Heading into Monday's open, S&P 500 futures are up ~0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures +1.2% on the Iran deal, which should provide a positive lead for Asian markets. STI and broader Southeast Asian markets are expected to benefit from lower oil prices. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> fell against G10 peers after Trump confirmed the Iran deal on Sunday.<strong> EURUSD</strong> lifted 0.3% to 1.1597 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined. </span></li> <li>Risk-sensitive currencies led gains, with <strong>AUDUSD</strong> up ~0.5% to 0.7075 and <strong>NZDUSD</strong> up ~0.5% to 0.5850 as oil slumped and risk appetite improved. The RBA is expected to pause this week after three straight hikes, with markets increasingly convinced policy rates are near their peak.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY</strong> fell 0.3% to ~159.84, with the yen catching a bid ahead of the BOJ rate decision on Tuesday, where a 25bps hike is widely expected. Speculative short yen positions hit a nine-year high as of last week, raising intervention risk. </li> <li>The <strong>NOK</strong> is the best-performing G10 currency YTD, up 6.01% against the dollar, though it faces headwinds from the Iran deal-driven oil price decline.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Oil slumps on Iran deal:</strong> Brent crude fell more than 4% to below $84/bbl in early Asian trading, with WTI near $81/bbl, after the US and Iran confirmed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had already closed last week at its lowest level in more than three months.</li> <li><strong>Gold surges:</strong> Bullion jumped as much as 2.1% to above $4,300/oz after the Iran deal was announced, as markets priced in easing inflation pressures and a potential reduction in Fed rate hike expectations. Gold had been under pressure in recent weeks, with ETFs cutting holdings for multiple consecutive sessions.</li> <li><strong>Copper holds firm:</strong> LME 3-month copper closed at $13,698/ton on Friday, June 12, up $215.50 on the session. Hedge funds trimmed net bullish copper bets to a five-week low, though structural supply tightness — with smelters facing an acute ore shortage and treatment charges turning deeply negative — continues to underpin prices.</li> </ul> <p> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> </p> <ul> <li><strong>Treasuries rally on Iran deal:</strong> US Treasury futures advanced in early Asian trading on Monday, with 2-year futures up ~3 ticks and 10-year futures up ~12 ticks. Nomura noted the deal could prompt markets to unwind Fed rate hike bets, with the yield curve expected to steepen as front-end yields fall more than long-end yields. The 10-year yield stood at 4.479% as of Sunday evening.</li> <li><strong>FOMC dot plot in focus:</strong> Ahead of the Warsh-chaired FOMC meeting, bond traders are watching the updated dot plot closely. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.5%–3.75%, but markets have been pricing in a hike by December 2026. JPMorgan revised its year-end 10-year yield forecast to 4.7% from 4.5%, citing a robust US economy.</li> <li><strong>Recent auction results:</strong> The Treasury sold $39bn of 10-year notes on June 10 at 4.538% and $22bn of 30-year bonds on June 11 at 5.020%, both broadly in line with pre-auction levels, suggesting demand remains adequate despite the elevated rate environment.</li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The SpaceX IPO is bigger than rockets: a new test for public markets</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>SpaceX is not just a rocket company</strong>. Its investment story now also runs through Starlink, satellites and artificial intelligence.</span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Starlink turns SpaceX’s launch advantage into recurring broadband revenue</strong>, while xAI adds a more ambitious data and artificial intelligence angle to the story.</span></span></p> </span></li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>The opportunity is large, but valuation, execution, xAI spending and governance risks</strong> make discipline essential.</span></span></p> </span> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>SpaceX has spent years making rocket launches look almost routine. That is a strange sentence, but it is also the point. The company has turned one of the hardest jobs in engineering into something closer to an industrial process.</span></p> <p><span>Now public investors get their turn to decide what that is worth. SpaceX priced its initial public offering at 135 USD per share, raising 75 billion USD and valuing the company at around 1.77 trillion USD. The shares are due to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on 12 June 2026. </span></p> <p><span>For investors, the question is not whether rockets are exciting. They are. The question is whether SpaceX can turn a powerful ecosystem into durable profits, without asking shareholders to pay for Mars before Earth pays the bills.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The flywheel behind the fireworks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX is best known for rockets, especially Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship. Its core advantage is reuse. If a rocket can fly again, launch costs can fall, launch frequency can rise and customers get more access to orbit. In short, SpaceX is trying to make space transport more like air freight and less like throwing away a jumbo jet after every trip.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because rockets are the first layer of the ecosystem. They carry satellites into space. Those satellites support Starlink, the company’s fast broadband network. Starlink then creates recurring revenue from households, businesses, ships, aircraft and remote users that need internet access where fibre cables are unavailable, unreliable or too expensive to install.</span></p> <p><span>This is the strongest part of the current story. Starlink has scale, global reach and a direct link to SpaceX’s launch advantage. SpaceX can launch its own satellites, upgrade them faster and build a network that competitors may struggle to match. The rocket business feeds the satellite business. The satellite business gives more reason to launch rockets. That is the flywheel.</span></p> <p><span>Then comes artificial intelligence, through xAI. This part of the story is more ambitious and less proven. SpaceX wants to connect rockets, satellites, computing and AI models into a broader infrastructure platform. In theory, this could make SpaceX more than a space company. It could become a backbone for communications, data and computing. In practice, AI is expensive, competitive and still far from easy money. The moat may be deep, but building it will not be cheap.</span></p> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank internal framework. For illustrative purposes only. The flywheel shows a simplified business logic and does not represent guaranteed outcomes or investment advice.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The index effect: another booster, not the engine</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX’s size means index inclusion could become part of the story, not because it changes the business, but because it may create automatic demand from passive funds. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) may be able to add very large IPOs relatively quickly, while Nasdaq has adjusted its Nasdaq 100 rules to make room for large new listings. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is stricter, as newly listed companies usually need at least 12 months of trading history before they can be considered.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, this matters, but only up to a point. Index demand can support the share price, especially after a large IPO. Yet it does not launch satellites, lower rocket costs or make Starlink more profitable. SpaceX still has to prove that its ecosystem can turn engineering strength into durable cash flow. Passive flows may add thrust, but the engine remains the business.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>For investors who prefer oxygen tanks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Not every investor needs to own SpaceX directly. Some may want exposure to the broader space, satellite, aerospace and defence supply chain through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the ARK Space & Defence Innovation ETF, the iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF, or the VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF. For investors who want to explore the theme more broadly, our <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/theme/c1aa2336-22f3-4dcd-abb3-68076ac33288" data-id="C1AA233622F34DCDABB368076AC33288" data-type="InvestmentTheme" target="_blank">Space Economy shortlist</a> can also be a useful source of inspiration for further research.</span></p> <p><span>These funds are not all the same. Some focus more on space technology. Others are broader aerospace and defence funds, with exposure to aircraft, suppliers, defence contractors and launch-related companies. They may not own SpaceX immediately, and some investors outside the United States may face local access rules. The dull homework matters: check holdings, fees, liquidity and whether the fund’s rules allow new IPOs.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Fireworks, fuel and gravity</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The opportunity is clear. SpaceX has rare engineering capability, a leading launch position, a scaled satellite network and a brand that few industrial companies can match. If Starlink keeps growing and Starship works at scale, SpaceX could reshape space access, broadband and perhaps parts of AI infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>The risks are just as real. Valuation is the first. A 1.77 trillion USD market value requires very large future profits. The second is execution. Starship, satellite upgrades and AI infrastructure all need heavy investment. Delays can be costly. The third is governance. Elon Musk remains central to the story, which can be a strength, but also a concentration risk.</span></p> <p><span>Early warning signs include slower Starlink subscriber growth, launch failures that delay capacity, rising capital spending without clearer profits, regulatory pushback, or index inclusion creating a short-term price spike that later fades. IPOs often come with fireworks. Investing is more about checking whether the launch vehicle has enough fuel after the show.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Separate admiration from allocation.</span></strong><span> Great companies can still be risky investments at demanding prices.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Watch first quarterly results for Starlink</span></strong><span> growth, cash flow, capital spending and AI losses.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Compare single-stock exposure with ETF exposure</span></strong><span> before deciding how much concentration feels sensible.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><strong><span>Treat index inclusion as a demand event</span></strong><span>, not proof of fair value.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Back to Earth, with eyes on the stars</span></strong></h3> <p><span>SpaceX’s IPO is a rare market moment because it wraps several big stories into one stock: rockets, satellites, broadband and artificial intelligence. That is why the excitement is understandable. It is also why discipline matters. </span></p> <p><span>The best investors do not need to be first through the door. They need to know what they own, why they own it and what would prove the thesis wrong. SpaceX may be building the infrastructure for a more connected future, but investors still face an old-fashioned task: pay a sensible price for future cash flows, not just for a spectacular rocket launch.</span></p> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span><span ></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Initial Public Offering (IPO)</span> <span>SpaceX </span> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Iran ceasefire rally, again - 12 June 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Markets staged a sharp risk-on reversal Thursday as President Trump cancelled planned US military strikes on Iran and signalled a deal could come as early as this weekend - but Tehran has yet to confirm anything, and that gap between price and reality is where today's Options Brief begins. VIX fell 12.5% on Thursday but ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief – Iran ceasefire rally – 12 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A sharp risk-on reversal on unconfirmed Iran ceasefire optimism – with the vol structure holding onto its escape hatch ahead of FOMC.</em></p> <p>President Trump cancelled planned US military strikes on Iran Thursday and said a formal deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, triggering a sharp cross-asset risk-on reversal; Tehran has yet to confirm any agreement, keeping headline risk live. Full coverage: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---12-june-2026-12062026" data-id="9582459F7F724DF6A1C1C23B42195668" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - 12 June 2026</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p>The S&P 500 closed Thursday up 1.75% to 7,394, the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.29% to 29,446, the Dow rose 1.86% to 50,854, and the Russell 2000 added 3.02% to 2,921. The rally extended Friday, with European indices adding another 1.8–2.0% in early trading (DAX at 24,699 this morning) and Asian markets surging, led by Korea’s Kospi (+4.6%). US index futures point to further gains at the open: S&P 500 futures +0.63%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.55%.</p> <p>WTI crude fell 4.25% to $83.98 and Brent 4.27% to $86.52 as markets began pricing in a Strait of Hormuz supply normalisation scenario. Gold surged 3.20% to $4,246, silver gained 5.57%, and the 10-year Treasury yield declined approximately 12 basis points to close near 4.45% (2-year: 4.05%) as Iran-related inflation risk premiums retreated.</p> <p><em>Data: Saxo Market Quick Take / Bloomberg / CBOE, as of 11–12 June 2026.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <p>The VIX closed Thursday at 19.44, a 12.5% single-session drop. Screens Friday morning show a further dip to 18.54, suggesting the calming is extending into today’s session. The near end of the term structure carries a notable hump: VIX1D at 21.09 and VIX9D at 20.66 both sit above spot VIX, a near-term inversion that reflects concentrated event risk from the still-unconfirmed Iran deal and next week’s FOMC meeting (June 16–17). Front-month VIX futures trade at 20.10 and the second month at 21.00; the normal contango shape resumes from there, with VIX3M at 21.42 and VIX6M at 23.14.</p> <p>Additional volatility readings: SKEW at 142.98 (essentially unchanged, no directional tail signal), COR3M down 15.8% to 11.54 (correlation collapse consistent with a dispersion-friendly rally), DSPX edging up 2.9% to 40.82 (some tail hedging remaining in place despite the risk-on tone), VVIX at 100.63 (down 7.0%, vol-of-vol easing but not collapsed). OVX (crude vol) fell 6.6% to 56.30 as the energy risk premium deflated; GVZ (gold vol) dropped 12.0% to 28.33 after bullion’s sharp move; MOVE (bond vol) declined 6.1% to 69.45 as yields reversed.</p> <p><strong>Market regime (in our view):</strong> Neutral/Chop. VIX 18.6, 20-day realised vol 15.3% (increasing), S&P 500 +2.26% above its 50-day moving average.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 11 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <p><strong>Single-name flow </strong>leaned constructive in energy equities and large-cap financials, where confirmed opening call demand pointed to upside participation and selective long-duration accumulation; dealers hedging those exposures by buying underlying shares would have provided incremental support to both sectors during the session. <br /> <br /> <strong>Broad-market index and ETF flow</strong> carried a two-sided but defensive undertone, with opening put demand across major equity index instruments accompanied by far-out-of-the-money VIX tail calls suggesting portfolio managers were building event protection ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while concurrent put selling in the same instruments kept the net positioning measured rather than outright bearish.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed Thursday at 19.44 and has drifted further toward 18.54 in early Friday trading, with the decline reflecting the Iran relief trade rather than any fundamental change in the underlying vol regime. The more telling structural feature is the near-term inversion: VIX1D at 21.09 sits above VIX9D at 20.66, which in turn sits above spot VIX, a configuration that typically signals concentrated event gamma in the very near term rather than a durable vol reset. The VIX3M-to-6M range of 21.42–23.14 carries a more normal contango shape, suggesting the market is broadly comfortable with the medium-term backdrop provided the Iran situation finds a resolution. Gold implied vol (GVZ) declined 12% following Thursday’s $130 bullion rally, a reminder that sharp directional moves in safe havens frequently compress the associated implied volatility even as the underlying moves in their favour.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Jade lizard to harvest elevated put skew.</strong> Illustrative only – not a trade recommendation. When SKEW is reading in the low-to-mid 140s, out-of-the-money puts carry a material implied volatility premium over equivalent-distance calls – a structural imbalance a jade lizard is specifically designed to exploit. The structure combines a short out-of-the-money put with a short out-of-the-money call spread: the put leg captures the elevated downside premium, while the call spread caps any loss on the upside to the width of the spread, effectively eliminating the open-ended risk that a short strangle carries on that side. The position may benefit from time decay across both legs and from a normalisation of put skew over the holding period. The risks are equally concrete: below the short put strike, the position carries full downside exposure with no further protection, and losses grow as the underlying continues to fall – the call spread hedge does nothing on the downside. If implied volatility expands sharply after entry, both short legs lose value simultaneously, and there is no long option in the structure to offset that move. The risk-reward of the jade lizard is therefore inherently asymmetric: the upside is bounded by the premium collected, while the downside has no defined floor beyond the short put strike.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Long straddle positioned for pre-event vol expansion.</strong> Illustrative only – not a trade recommendation. In the days ahead of a major scheduled central bank announcement, nearby implied volatility tends to be bid as market participants accumulate event protection – a pattern that means entering a long straddle several sessions before the event can potentially allow the position to participate in that vol expansion, independent of the eventual directional outcome. On the benefit side, the structure profits from a large move in either direction and may also gain from the vol expansion itself, even before the event occurs. The risks deserve equal weight: a long straddle bleeds theta every day it is held, so a position entered too early relative to the vol expansion loses time value faster than it builds vega gains; if the geopolitical headline resolves before the FOMC premium builds, implied vol could compress rather than expand, pushing both legs lower simultaneously; and if vol expands into the event but the underlying’s actual move at the announcement falls short of the combined breakeven, the full premium paid is lost. With Iran and FOMC premiums currently stacked in the near-term, entry timing matters as much as the structure itself.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>The Iran ceasefire trade is real enough for markets to price a strong risk-on rally, but not confirmed enough to fully discharge the geopolitical risk premium, and that gap is the defining tension heading into today’s session. With VIX1D still elevated above spot, the FOMC five days away, and Tehran yet to endorse any formal agreement, the vol structure is pricing optimism with an escape hatch. In our view, when the market is already priced for a resolution, the asymmetric risk appears to have shifted: the cost of being wrong about escalation has risen, and that is worth keeping in mind as the week closes.</p> <hr /> <p><strong>Author disclosure:</strong> Koen Hoorelbeke does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article at the time of publication.</p> <hr /> <p><strong>Sources:</strong> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---12-june-2026-12062026" data-id="9582459F7F724DF6A1C1C23B42195668" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - 12 June 2026</a> & Bloomberg (12 June 2026, ~11:45 CET) </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-day-two-vol-surges---11-june-2026-11062026" data-id="5D42D8081233415982EDEA27213A6D5D" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran day two vol surges - 11 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---the-fear-gauge-already-knows---10-june-2026-10062026" data-id="F8AB7243B1B54FA2B6140D1F52666BCC" data-type="Article">Options Brief - The fear gauge already knows - 10 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---semis-rebound-cpi-looms---9-june-2026-09062026" data-id="072AD870A1C04BEFABAD9A1FB2E81865" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Semis rebound CPI looms - 9 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---options-amplified-fridays-sell-off---8-june-2026-08062026" data-id="4782F4CCCAFE44D08FEF66B051CA4C6D" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Options amplified Fridays sell-off - 8 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---broadcom-shock-rotation-wins---5-june-2026-05062026" data-id="81DDFDAFDFB2403A83DD2DB2B35A9D63" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Broadcom shock rotation wins - 5 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Commodities slide as markets price a tentative path to peace</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Oil has led a broad commodity retreat this month as markets increasingly price a normalization of Gulf energy exports, despite the absence of a confirmed agreement between Washington and Tehran. </span></li> <li><span>The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, with weakness spreading across energy, metals, grains and soft commodities. </span></li> <li><span>Gold and other metals have staged a relief rally as peace hopes ease inflation concerns, but sentiment remains fragile while gold trades below its 200-day moving average. </span></li> <li><span>El Niño has officially returned, creating a new source of weather-related supply risk across agriculture, energy and metals markets.</span></li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"> <p><span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span >The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a monthly loss of around 3%, trimming its year-to-date gain to 26%. The setback marks the first monthly decline since December but does little to alter the broader picture of commodities remaining one of the strongest-performing asset classes in 2026.</span></p> <span > <p><span>May was a month of contrasts. While investors continued pouring money into technology and AI-related equities, helping push major stock indices towards fresh highs, commodity markets spent much of the month reassessing the outlook for supply disruptions stemming from the three-month conflict in the Middle East. So, while equities focused on the productivity gains and investment opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, commodities focused on whether the largest supply shock in years may finally begin to ease.</span></p> </span> </span></p> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Month-to-date commodities returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The reaction has been most visible in energy markets. Brent crude oil fell below USD 86 per barrel, a three-month low after President Trump once again signalled that negotiations were progressing towards a potential agreement. Unlike previous announcements that were met with considerable scepticism, markets this time appear increasingly willing to price in a meaningful probability of success.</span></p> <p><span>Part of that optimism reflects developments on the ground. While still far from normal, flows of crude oil, refined products and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz have shown tentative signs of improvement in the past week. At the same time, traders are increasingly focused on the prospect of a surge in exports from tankers currently stranded inside the Gulf and those waiting outside to pick up cargoes once shipping conditions improve further, potentially creating a temporary period where the market experiences a supply disruption in reverse. However, given the decline in Brent crude already seen and the fact that we have entered the peak seasonal demand period, the scope in our opinion for significantly lower prices beyond the initial wave of delayed crude and product shipments appears limited.</span></p> <p><span>The continued use of pipeline rerouting by Saudi Arabia and UAE means that flows through the strait may not need to return to pre-war levels to normalize overall Middle East flows, but much now hinges on the ability to restart 10,000 wells and how quickly storage facilities can be reduced in order to receive fresh production. The 2027 average Brent crude price trades around USD 78, some 18% above the pre-war level highlighting a market that is pricing in a higher for longer scenario amid additional demand towards the rebuilding of commercial and strategic stockpiles, with the offsetting factor being the level of long-term demand destruction due to higher prices. For now, traders appear focused on the immediate implications of a reopening rather than the longer-term challenges that remain.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Brent crude - Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The resulting decline in energy prices has reverberated across commodity markets. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down around 5% so far this month, reducing its year-to-date gain to around 19%. The weakness has been remarkably broad-based, with copper and cattle being the only exceptions out of 26 major futures contracts trading in the black this month. </span></p> <p><span>Lower crude oil prices have spilled into several agricultural markets through their links to biofuel, ethanol and synthetic-fibre demand. Soybean oil, corn, sugar and cotton have all experienced renewed selling pressure as the economics supporting alternative fuel production have weakened alongside energy markets.</span></p> <p><span>The latest wave of liquidation across metals has also been notable for its breadth. Rather than reflecting commodity-specific developments, recent price action increasingly resembles a macro-driven adjustment across the sector triggering an increased amount of technical short selling. Rising inflation expectations following the Middle East conflict, supporting higher bond yields, a stronger dollar and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive monetary stance for longer have collectively created a challenging backdrop for commodities. As a result, investors have reduced exposure across several sectors simultaneously.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The precious metals complex has been particularly hard hit.</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Despite recovering amid the latest Middle East peace attempt, the Bloomberg Commodity precious metals index has fallen around 8% this month and is down around 2% for the year. The selloff has been led by silver and platinum, which tend to be more volatile than gold due to their smaller and less liquid markets.</span></p> <p><span>Gold fell to a seven-month low this week near USD 4,000 after recently breaking below its 200-day moving average - last around USD 4,450 - triggering technical selling and long liquidation, resulting in gold retracing 38.2% of its 2022–2026 rally. The sharp correction driven by technical momentum selling and recently also forced long liquidation has triggered a broad reset in investor sentiment, reflected in lower futures open interest, ETF outflows and softer physical demand.</span></p> <p><span>As mentioned, gold and most other metals rebounded following Trump's latest announcement on Iran as short sellers reduced exposure. The rally reflects hopes that a successful agreement could help ease inflation pressures through lower energy prices, thereby reducing pressure on bond yields and allowing investors to refocus on longer-term supportive themes such as fiscal debt concerns, central-bank diversification away from the dollar and ongoing geopolitical fragmentation.</span><span ></span></p> <p><span>However, markets will likely need a signed agreement and clear evidence of improving energy flows before confidence fully returns. Until then, sentiment is likely to remain fragile while gold trades below its 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,450.</span></p> <h3> </h3> <h3></h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Spot gold with key retracement levels - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Industrial metals have proven more resilient.</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Bloomberg industrial metals sector is down around 2% this month but still holds gains of nearly 13% for the year. Copper remains the standout performer despite the recent correction.</span></p> <p><span>COMEX high-grade copper continues to trade close to unchanged on the month after successfully defending key support near USD 6.15 per pound. The market also maintains a premium over London Metal Exchange prices as traders await the outcome of the U.S. administration's review of potential copper tariffs, due by the end of June.</span></p> <p><span>While copper has not escaped broader risk reduction, its structural outlook remains supportive. Demand linked to electrification, power-grid investment, artificial intelligence infrastructure and defence spending continues to underpin the longer-term narrative, helping the market absorb periodic bouts of macro-driven weakness.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Looking further ahead, another potentially significant risk factor has emerged.</span></strong><span ></span></h3> <p><span>The Japan Meteorological Agency has formally declared the return of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, marking the first event since 2023. Some forecasters are already discussing the possibility of a particularly strong episode, with a 63% chance it could evolve into a "Super El Niño" heading into 2027, raising concerns about another period of weather-related disruptions across global commodity markets.</span></p> <p><span>El Niño arrives at an especially sensitive moment. The global economy is still adjusting to the inflationary consequences of the Iran conflict, while supply chains remain vulnerable following months of disruption. Historically, El Niño has been associated with drought conditions across parts of Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa, regions critical for grain, sugar and other agricultural production. At the same time, heavier rainfall in parts of South America can disrupt transportation networks and potentially affect mining operations, including copper production in Chile and Peru.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">El Ninõ impacts around the world - Source: NOAA </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Beyond agriculture and mining, elevated temperatures often increase electricity demand and place additional strain on power systems, creating knock-on effects for natural gas, coal and power markets. Stronger cooling demand, particularly across Asia, could lift gas consumption for power generation and provide support to global LNG prices as European and Asian buyers compete for available cargoes. This comes at a time when Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, may struggle to return to full export capacity for many months after damage to export facilities during the early stages of the conflict, potentially limiting supply flexibility during periods of peak demand.</span></p> <p><span>At this stage, the impact remains largely a risk premium rather than a realized supply shock. However, after spending much of the year focused on geopolitics and energy security, commodity markets may soon find themselves having to contend with another familiar challenge: the weather.</span></p> <p><span>For now, however, the dominant theme remains the ebb and flow of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. Markets are increasingly willing to believe that a path towards normalization exists, but belief alone will not fully remove the war premium. Until an agreement is signed and reflected in physical energy flows, commodities are likely to remain highly sensitive to every headline emerging from both capitals.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>9 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-slips-below-200-day-average-as-inflation-jobs-and-fed-risks-bite-09062026" data-id="F5E40862072D4B67939C2CE8EE10AB69" data-type="Article">Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation jobs and Fed risks bite</a><br /> 8 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-2-june-2026-08062026" data-id="3DEB0D968569401BBFCE06B024A23293" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 2 June 2026</a><br /> 4 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-rally-faces-tariff-roulette-but-fundamentals-remain-tight-04062026" data-id="709882EC371D48F8997BBDC6857538CD" data-type="Article">Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> 30 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rises-with-oil-as-geopolitical-risk-overwhelms-rate-headwinds-30042026" data-id="913BF947FC8F4E0B9FEEC4B848C64291" data-type="Article">Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds</a><br /> 29 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rally-extends-as-strait-disruption-continues-opecs-role-tested-after-uae-exit-29042026" data-id="DC861D31F2184DABB42FFCF9A7E4B68D" data-type="Article">Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit</a><br /> 28 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-face-near-term-pressure-from-oil-driven-inflation-28042026" data-id="AED8E78ECFE845F2B0244ECDB755536D" data-type="Article">Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation</a><br /> 27 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-21-april-2026-27042026" data-id="DE3EE59CB5414C169CCC0958EC816D81" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026</a><br /> 24 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-from-fuel-shortages-to-food-risks-as-hormuz-remains-shut-24042026" data-id="4EC56C4426EC47F090B8C97C9E000F79" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut</a><br /> 22 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/severe-supply-disruption-meets-rising-demand-destruction-as-hormuz-closure-persists-22042026" data-id="FE10F88674FE4991B61D00AEB7CE02FE" data-type="Article">Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists</a><br /> 20 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-14-april-2026-20042026" data-id="E4554C47A3504722A360A2E0F2D0AF3F" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026</a><br /> 14 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-rebuild-as-macro-tailwinds-return-but-gold-awaits-breakout-confirmation-14042026" data-id="CC221C7482B44642AEDE03ECC2A4A592" data-type="Article">Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation</a><br /> 13 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-april-7-2026-13042026" data-id="D60285173A49405CBDCE019B12A938CE" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026</a><br /> 10 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-slumps-but-physical-oil-stress-keeps-the-market-on-edge-10042026" data-id="A3E5D752C7A442C0BA0D67A83BB2297B" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge</a><br /> 9 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rebounds-toward-usd-100-as-hormuz-bottlenecks-keep-physical-market-tight-09042026" data-id="F68C59DB02D5473981BBDC3918E54CD9" data-type="Article">Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight</a><br /> 8 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-correction-meets-macro-reset-as-ceasefire-reverses-key-headwinds-08042026" data-id="5683DD1DFE9644358327272CF413C860" data-type="Article">Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/europes-gas-market-shifts-from-stress-to-relief-but-the-real-test-still-lies-ahead-07042026" data-id="FE54A383A20F4C8988662C4818F003CC" data-type="Article">Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/wti-above-brent-a-curve-distortion-not-a-benchmark-inversion-07042026" data-id="529398E9941F47708FE4F9C3F93EAC27" data-type="Article">WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-31-march-2026-07042026" data-id="CF175C3924F7492FA84FC81B4EBFEEEA" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Agriculture</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Cocoa</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Rounding up the usual suspects as a new era at the Fed dawns next week.</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 10:35:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Chips up, SaaS down as crude craters.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/rounding-up-the-usual-suspects-and-the-new-era-ahead/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <p> <ul> <li>FT suggests that <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7e461be0-5c13-4a93-a0f8-0659ae5505a2?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the quantum computing revolution may be coming sooner than we think</a></span>.</li> <li><span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXJQMHO5Bx4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jesse Felder on the Thoughtful Money podcast</a></span>, pointing out some concerning trends within the AI phenomenon and suggesting we are near a bubble top.</li> <li>A recent <span><a href="https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-round-up-graham-platner" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Matt Stoller substack post</a></span>, mostly just encouragement to follow his work and to read his book Goliath and to point out his link to<span><a href="https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/The_Quiet_Coup_of_Finance_in_the_US_Simon-JOHNSON_may09.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> this old post from May of 2009 about Wall Street's capture of Washington</a></span> - something that <span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-feds-gain-of-function-monetary-policy-ac0dc38a" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Treasury Secretary Bessent has promised to do something about</a></span>. The new Kevin Warsh Fed will have a critical role to play if this is ever to amount to anything.</li> </ul> </p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>What is a cash-secured put? Using Oracle’s post-earnings pullback as an example</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Oracle shares dropped more than 11% following its earnings release on 10 June 2026. That kind of move creates a very specific question: does a cash-secured put make sense here? This article walks through exactly what the strategy involves, step by step.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>What is a cash-secured put? Using Oracle’s post-earnings pullback as an example</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li>Oracle released quarterly earnings on the evening of 10 June 2026. The market reacted sharply, sending shares down more than 11% at the open of the following session – from USD 201.26 to trade near USD 177.</li> <li>This kind of post-earnings sell-off is a useful setting to examine the cash-secured put: a strategy that some investors use to set a lower entry price while collecting a premium upfront.</li> <li>The example in this article uses the 18 June 2026 170 put, which collects approximately USD 2.76 per share (USD 276 per contract) and defines an effective entry of USD 167.24 – roughly USD 10 below where ORCL last traded.</li> <li>This is an educational example, not a recommendation. Every investor’s situation, risk tolerance, and view of Oracle will differ.</li> <li>The example shows both the appeal and the risk clearly. Read the downside section before the upside one.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>This article uses Oracle’s post-earnings situation as a teaching tool. The numbers are real – drawn from the SaxoTrader option chain and order ticket on 11 June 2026. But the purpose is not to say “sell this put.” It is to walk through exactly what a cash-secured put involves, step by step, using a live example where the strategy’s logic is easy to follow.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Oracle has sold off sharply. What now?</strong></h2> <p>Oracle Corporation reported its quarterly earnings after the close of trading on 10 June 2026. The market’s reaction was swift: shares fell more than 11% the following session, dropping from a previous close of USD 201.26 to trade near USD 177 on 11 June (at the open). The move pushed the stock well below its 50-day moving average on the daily chart (USD 184.14) and significantly below its 200-day moving average (USD 206.07). The weekly chart adds further context: Oracle had peaked above USD 250 earlier in 2026 before the series of down moves that brought it to today’s level.<br /> <br /> <br /> <em><em>Oracle Corporation (ORCL) – weekly (top) and daily (bottom) charts as of 11 June 2026. The stock fell sharply following the earnings release on 10 June, closing near USD 180 after trading above USD 200 earlier in the week. The daily chart shows the price below both the 50-day SMA (USD 184.14) and the 200-day SMA (USD 206.07), with elevated volume on the sell-off. Source: SaxoTrader</em></em></p> <hr /> <p>What makes this a useful example for explaining the cash-secured put is the combination of two factors: a well-known stock at a sharply lower price, and elevated implied volatility (78.16%) that has widened option premiums significantly. Both conditions are common in the period immediately following an earnings sell-off. The mechanics of the strategy become more concrete when the numbers are this visible.</p> <p>For the purposes of this article, the question is not whether Oracle is cheap or expensive at USD 177. It is: how does a cash-secured put work, and what does it actually look like when you set one up?</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What is a cash-secured put?</strong></h2> <p>A cash-secured put is an options strategy for investors who want to buy a stock at a lower price than today’s market – and who are willing to be paid while they wait.</p> <p>Here is how it works. The investor sells a put option at a strike price below the current share price. The buyer of that put option pays the investor a premium upfront. In return, the investor commits to buying 100 shares at the strike price if the stock is at or below that level at expiry.</p> <p>The phrase “cash-secured” matters. It means the investor actually sets aside enough cash to buy those 100 shares if assigned. In this example, that is USD 17,000 (100 shares × USD 170 strike). This reserved cash is what makes the strategy more conservative than selling an uncovered – or “naked” – put, where no cash is held in reserve.</p> <p>If Oracle closes above USD 170 on 18 June 2026, the put expires worthless. The investor keeps the premium and their cash is freed. If Oracle is at or below USD 170 at expiry, the investor is assigned – they buy 100 shares at USD 170, with the premium received reducing their effective entry price to USD 167.24. The downside risk mirrors owning Oracle stock from USD 167.24 downward: the premium softens the entry slightly, but does not protect against a sustained decline after assignment.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The ORCL example</strong></h2> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p>With Oracle trading near USD 177 on 11 June 2026, the 170 put expiring 18 June 2026 serves as the worked example. Here are the key parameters:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Current ORCL share price:</strong> approximately USD 177 (at time of writing -> June 11th, shortly after market open)</li> <li><strong>Option used:</strong> 170 Put, 18 June 2026 expiry</li> <li><strong>Premium received:</strong> approximately USD 2.76 per share, before costs</li> <li><strong>Total premium per contract (100 shares):</strong> approximately USD 276, before costs</li> <li><strong>Cash reserved:</strong> USD 17,000 (100 shares × USD 170 strike)</li> <li><strong>Effective entry price if assigned:</strong> USD 167.24 (USD 170 − USD 2.76)</li> <li><strong>Implied volatility at time of example:</strong> 78.16%</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>A note on execution: the options chain showed a bid of USD 2.63 and ask of USD 2.69 at the time of this example. The USD 2.76 mid-price on the order ticket reflects a slightly earlier snapshot. In practice, use a limit order placed between the bid and mid rather than a market order, and adjust if the market has moved.<br /> <br /> <br /> <em><em>Oracle Corporation (ORCL) options chain, 18 June 2026 expiry (7 days). The 170 put is highlighted, showing a bid of USD 2.63 and ask of USD 2.69 at the time of this example. Implied volatility: 78.16%. Data shown with a 15-minute delay. Source: SaxoTrader</em></em></p> <br /> <em><em>SaxoTrader order ticket: Sell to Open, 1 × ORCL 170 Put, 18 June 2026 expiry. Limit price: approximately USD 2.76 credit per share. Total premium: USD 276 per contract. Breakeven: USD 167.24. Maximum risk at expiry: USD 16,724. Source: SaxoTrader</em></em><br /> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What the premium means in plain numbers</strong></h2> <p>The USD 276 premium represents approximately 1.6% of the USD 17,000 cash reserved, over a seven-day period.</p> <p>More importantly, the numbers make the downside concrete:</p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <th><strong>Scenario</strong></th> <th><strong>Calculation</strong></th> <th><strong>Result</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <td>Cash reserved</td> <td >100 × USD 170</td> <td >USD 17,000</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Effective entry if assigned</td> <td >USD 170 − USD 2.76</td> <td >USD 167.24 per share</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Value if assigned and ORCL falls to USD 140</td> <td >100 × USD 140</td> <td >USD 14,000</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Effective cost of 100 shares</td> <td>100 × USD 167.24</td> <td>USD 16,724</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Paper loss at USD 140</td> <td>USD 16,724 − USD 14,000</td> <td>−USD 2,724</td> </tr> <tr> <td>If not assigned: premium kept</td> <td>100 × USD 2.76</td> <td>+USD 276</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>The USD 276 premium is what the investor receives if the option expires worthless. It is not a guaranteed return, and it does not protect against a significant fall in the share price after assignment.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What can happen by expiry?</strong></h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <th><strong>ORCL at expiry (18 June 2026)</strong></th> <th><strong>What happens</strong></th> <th><strong>Net cost per share</strong></th> <th><strong>Outcome</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <td>Above USD 170</td> <td>Put expires worthless</td> <td>–</td> <td>Keeps USD 276 as income; cash freed</td> </tr> <tr> <td>At USD 170</td> <td>Assignment likely</td> <td>USD 167.24</td> <td>Owns 100 shares at effective USD 167.24</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Below USD 170</td> <td>Assigned – buys 100 shares at USD 170</td> <td>USD 167.24</td> <td>Owns shares at a discount to the strike; paper loss if stock continues lower</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Well below USD 167.24</td> <td>Assigned; loss below breakeven</td> <td>USD 167.24</td> <td>Loss mirrors stock ownership from USD 167.24 downward</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Approximate outcomes at different price levels</strong></h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <th><strong>ORCL at expiry</strong></th> <th><strong>Stock position value</strong></th> <th><strong>Option result</strong></th> <th><strong>Approximate outcome (before costs and taxes)</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <td>USD 140</td> <td>USD 14,000 (100 shares)</td> <td>+USD 276 premium</td> <td>Effective cost USD 16,724; paper loss of −USD 2,724</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USD 160</td> <td>USD 16,000 (100 shares)</td> <td>+USD 276 premium</td> <td>Effective cost USD 16,724; paper loss of −USD 724</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USD 167.24</td> <td>USD 16,724 (100 shares)</td> <td>+USD 276 premium</td> <td>Break-even before costs and taxes</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USD 170</td> <td>At the strike</td> <td>+USD 276 premium</td> <td>May or may not be assigned; premium kept in either case</td> </tr> <tr> <td>USD 177+</td> <td>Put expires worthless</td> <td>+USD 276 premium</td> <td>USD 276 income; no shares purchased</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><em>Approximate total result before transaction costs and taxes. Assignment may also have tax consequences depending on the investor’s jurisdiction.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why use this strategy?</strong></h2> <p>To be clear: the following reasons describe the mechanics of why this strategy exists and what it achieves. They are not reasons to enter any particular trade.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Payment for patience.</strong> The investor collects USD 276 upfront while waiting. If Oracle does not fall to USD 170 within seven days, the premium is theirs and the process can be repeated with a later expiry. If Oracle does fall below USD 170 by expiry, the investor is assigned and carries the full downside from the USD 167.24 effective entry – the premium received does not offset a significant decline.</li> <li><strong>A pre-defined entry level.</strong> Rather than making a reactive decision during a sharp sell-off, the investor commits in advance to a specific price at which they would be comfortable owning the shares. The discipline is built into the structure of the trade.</li> <li><strong>Transparent, bounded risk.</strong> The downside of this trade is exactly the same as buying Oracle outright at USD 167.24. There are no hidden mechanics. The premium received is the only variable that differs from a direct purchase at the strike.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Who this may not suit</strong></h2> <p>A cash-secured put may not be suitable for investors who:</p> <ul> <li>are not comfortable owning 100 Oracle shares at USD 167.24 per share in the current environment</li> <li>need their cash available for other purposes during the seven-day period</li> <li>are looking for downside protection – the USD 2.76 premium does not function as a hedge</li> <li>believe Oracle could fall significantly further and would not want to hold a losing stock position as a result</li> <li>do not plan to monitor the position and adjust or close it before expiry if circumstances change</li> <li>do not have at least USD 17,000 in available cash to reserve for the full duration of the trade</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What are the risks?</strong></h2> <p><strong>Downside if assigned.</strong> If Oracle is assigned at USD 170 and continues to fall, the investor absorbs the full loss from USD 167.24 downward. A move to USD 140 results in a paper loss of approximately USD 2,724 on the position. The premium received does not protect against this.</p> <p><strong>Cash tied up.</strong> The USD 17,000 reserved cannot be deployed elsewhere until 18 June 2026. At seven days, the lockup is short – but it is real. If Oracle or another opportunity requires capital during this period, it will not be available.</p> <p><strong>Elevated volatility cuts both ways.</strong> The 78.16% implied volatility that inflates today’s premiums also reflects genuine market uncertainty about Oracle’s near-term direction. Higher premiums and higher uncertainty are two sides of the same coin.</p> <p><strong>Execution.</strong> The bid-ask spread on the 170 put was USD 2.63–USD 2.69 at the time of this example. The USD 2.76 mid shown on the order ticket may not be achievable in practice. Place a limit order between the bid and mid rather than accepting the market price.</p> <p><strong>Early assignment.</strong> US equity options can be exercised before expiry. Early assignment on an out-of-the-money put is uncommon, but it is possible. Worth noting: Oracle’s next dividend ex-date is 9 July 2026, which falls after the 18 June 2026 expiry – so the dividend does not create early assignment risk for this specific trade.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Frequently asked questions</strong></h2> <p><strong>Q: What if Oracle falls further to USD 150 or lower before expiry?</strong><br /> A: The investor would be assigned and own 100 shares at an effective cost of USD 167.24. At USD 150, that represents a paper loss of USD 1,724 per contract. This is the same outcome as having bought Oracle at USD 167.24 outright. The premium received does not change that – it only reduces the entry from USD 170 to USD 167.24.</p> <p><strong>Q: Can I close this trade early?</strong><br /> A: Yes. The investor can buy back the put at any time before expiry. If Oracle has recovered and the put has lost value since the trade was opened, buying it back will likely be cheaper than the premium received. If Oracle has fallen further, the put will be more expensive to close – but closing it limits further loss if the investor wants to exit.</p> <p><strong>Q: What happens if the put expires worthless?</strong><br /> A: The investor keeps the USD 276 premium and the USD 17,000 cash is freed. Many investors in this situation then reassess whether to repeat the trade with a later expiry – at the same strike, a different one, or not at all.</p> <p><strong>Q: Is a seven-day trade very different from a longer-dated put?</strong><br /> A: Yes, in a few meaningful ways. With elevated volatility, the absolute premium per day is higher than usual – which is why short-dated puts can generate comparable income to longer-dated ones in stressed markets. Time decay (theta) also accelerates in the final week, meaning the put loses value quickly if Oracle stays above USD 170. The trade resolves fast, for better or worse.</p> <p><strong>Q: What does a delta of −0.28 mean?</strong><br /> A: Delta measures how much the option’s price moves relative to the stock. A delta of −0.28 on the 170 put means that for every USD 1 Oracle falls, the put gains approximately USD 0.28 in value. It also offers a rough probability indicator: the market is implying approximately a 28% chance this put finishes in the money at expiry. This is not a precise prediction – it is a reflection of current market pricing.</p> <p><strong>Q: What is the dividend situation?</strong><br /> A: Oracle’s dividend ex-date is 9 July 2026, which falls after the 18 June 2026 expiry. This means the dividend does not affect early assignment risk for this specific trade. Had the ex-date fallen before expiry, this would require more careful consideration.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Final takeaway</strong></h2> <p>Oracle’s post-earnings sell-off on 11 June 2026 provides a clean, real-world setting to examine how a cash-secured put functions. The numbers are concrete, the trade-offs are visible, and the structure is straightforward enough to follow step by step.</p> <p>To recap what this example illustrates: selling the 170 put expiring 18 June 2026 collects approximately USD 276 per contract and sets USD 167.24 as the effective entry price if assigned. If Oracle stays above USD 170, the premium is kept and the trade ends. If it falls below, the investor buys 100 shares at a cost that was defined in advance.</p> <p>What the example also makes clear: the strategy does not protect against a continued decline. The 78.16% implied volatility reflects genuine uncertainty following the earnings release, and the short seven-day window means the trade resolves quickly – with no time to wait for a recovery if the stock keeps falling.</p> <p>For any investor considering whether this strategy applies to their own situation, the key question is not “will Oracle recover?” It is: would you be comfortable owning 100 Oracle shares at USD 167.24 today? If yes, the cash-secured put is one way to act on that. If the current level of uncertainty makes that commitment uncomfortable, waiting – with no position – is a valid response.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <em> <p><em>The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article.</em></p> <p><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <p><em>The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em></p> <p><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></p> <p><em>This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></p> <br /> </em> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th > Educational Resources </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul > <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/position-management-for-covered-calls-and-cash-secured-puts-18122025" data-id="CDF08F4982B94F9C90D838E76FDAE3B6" data-type="Article">Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="#" data-id="C56829954B544FC6B1CCF8E3E01AAA17" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the covered call option strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="A151C0147D904D0EB837912D2ED6CEBA" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the poor mans covered call</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="6D9B23B4FAD44895A69854A74149291A" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the option collar strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="C56829954B544FC6B1CCF8E3E01AAA17" data-type="EvergreenArticle"></a><a href="#" data-id="D8A3606FE99049A6809BEC2CFD67AAF7" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the naked put option strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="6C562A40F7D14D89BEF8958DFF3B29E5" data-type="EvergreenArticle">How put options work</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="7EF98066A9E34CFAAFACD007604E04EC" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the protective put option strategy</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="#" data-id="46F9B7C11C8C427993127C6988516E62" data-type="Article">Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---01---what-every-options-trader-and-investor-should-know-04072025" data-id="F83BAEE96DEB48FBB3F217498E68D95F" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---02---how-to-avoid-assignment-04072025" data-id="36D86BBE4E094B209A5940273B7E5D8D" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---03---how-to-use-option-assignment-to-your-advantage-04072025" data-id="D952B245169B42DABC33C6CFDBF756F5" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---04---option-assignment-cheat-sheet-04072025" data-id="1D4CD745132B42C88A359DE58F7E8A0C" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-investors-misunderstand-about-covered-calls-10062026" data-id="BCCAA589BFFC41E7B5DBB766016AA79B" data-type="Article">What investors misunderstand about covered calls</a> | 10 Jun 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/covered-call-or-cash-secured-put-02062026" data-id="9632B5C9CE2649BF9B6628167231164E" data-type="Article">Covered call or cash-secured put</a> | 2 Jun 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/from-shareholder-to-options-user-26052026" data-id="15A45402BFB347CB98CDFDF575A79F89" data-type="Article">From shareholder to options user</a> | 26 May 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/micron-before-earnings---using-a-covered-call-after-a-strong-rally-29052026" data-id="E0792F25BE914D2785D0994013073093" data-type="Article">Micron before earnings - using a covered call after a strong rally</a> | 29 May 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/alphabet-after-earnings---how-a-covered-call-can-help-investors-manage-a-strong-rally-30042026" data-id="75A7962C3F3D4C729B356F6EDCF78E7E" data-type="Article">Alphabet after earnings - how a covered call can help investors manage a strong rally</a> | 30 Apr 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/tesla-shares-after-earnings--could-a-covered-call-make-sense-27042026" data-id="F5FF792D68A54BB9BDE2F28C06D04569" data-type="Article">Tesla shares after earnings could a covered call make sense</a> | 27 Apr 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/a-structured-way-to-buy-iwda-at-a-lower-price-using-options-20032026" data-id="43EACFF911734ACF9BDD50AEB6B62976" data-type="Article">A structured way to buy IWDA at a lower price using options</a> | 20 Mar 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/how-to-improve-the-yield-on-a-long-term-iwda-holdings-12032026" data-id="3583AC754486457DA50C23A59976B120" data-type="Article">How to improve the yield on a long-term IWDA holdings</a> | 12 Mar 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/how-to-use-a-collar-to-protect-stock-gains---a-tesla-case-study-20022026" data-id="D702693516F04E15ABB52A0CFFD249DB" data-type="Article">How to use a collar to protect stock gains - a Tesla case study</a> | 20 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/palantir-after-earnings---using-options-to-define-a-potential-entry-price-04022026" data-id="36B07866752A45EE84DFB7849A6FB590" data-type="Article">Palantir after earnings - using options to define a potential entry price</a> | 4 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/golds-pullback---thinking-beyond-buy-or-sell-03022026" data-id="BA22616AE233495DB2AD7A0CAAAAECF2" data-type="Article">Golds pullback - thinking beyond buy or sell</a> | 3 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/why-options-got-so-popular-in-recent-years-28012026" data-id="2253492BA6004B42866EE5293925FCB5" data-type="Article">Why options got so popular in recent years</a> | 28 Jan 2026<br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <hr /> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>Income and yield</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 12 June 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 06:21:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong><strong>Market Quick Take – </strong><strong>1</strong><strong>2</strong><strong> June </strong><strong>202</strong><strong>6</strong></strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong> </strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US tech rebounded sharply, Europe edged higher after the ECB hike, Asia surged as Iran risk eased.</li> <li><strong>Volatili</strong><strong>t</strong><strong>y:</strong><strong> </strong>Iran optimism, VIX below 20, Fed meeting ahead, risk-on sentiment, upside skew.</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin consolidates, Ether steady, crypto equities strong, Fed in focus</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Oil hits two-month low as Trump talks up Iran deal; gold rebounds</li> <li><strong>F</strong><strong>ixed</strong> <strong>Income</strong>: US treasury yields reverse lower on hopes for Iran war ceasefire</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD rally Thursday reversed on slide in crude oil prices, US treasuries</li> <li><strong>M</strong><strong>acro</strong>: US preliminary June University of Michigan Sentiment</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US-Iran peace deal signals:</strong> In yet another about-turn, President Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and said a deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, triggering a sharp cross-asset reversal. Oil prices fell, equities and gold rallied, bond yields declined, and the dollar weakened as markets moved to price in a reduced geopolitical risk premium.</li> <li>However, after more than thirty similar announcements over the past couple of months, investors have become increasingly cautious about taking such signals at face value. As always, it remains crucial to watch the response from Tehran. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported on Thursday that officials had yet to approve the text of any agreement with the United States, citing an unnamed source, while negotiations reportedly remain deadlocked over several key issues.</li> <li><strong>US PPI (May):</strong> Producer prices rose 1.1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year, the fastest pace since November 2022, driven by Iran war-related energy pressures. Core PPI ex-food and energy rose 0.4% month-on-month, below the 0.5% estimate, providing a modest offset.</li> <li><strong>ECB rate hike:</strong> The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the first hike since 2023, citing inflation pressures from the Iran war and prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The ECB reiterated it will not pre-commit to future action; markets are pricing another 25bp move in September.</li> <li><strong>US tariff refunds:</strong> The US Treasury refunded nearly $22 billion in tariff revenue in May — roughly equal to duties collected during the month — following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down a major component of Trump's trade policy.</li> <li><strong >USMCA uncertainty:</strong><span > Trump said he is "not looking to renew" the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, upending expectations for a July review milestone. Canada's trade minister said side deals would eventually resolve disputes.</span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>0600 – UK April GDP, Trade Balance an Industrial Production</li> <li>1400 – US June University of Michigan Sentiment</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Next week:</strong></li> </ul> <ul > <li><strong>Wednesday</strong>: Jabil</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong>: Accenture, Kroger</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar"><span class="underline; ">calendar.</span></a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Equities</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.5%, and the Dow added 1.9% on Thursday as oil fell after Trump cancelled planned Iran strikes and signalled a possible regional deal. Chipmakers led the rebound, with Micron up 11.7% on renewed memory demand optimism, Lam Research up 12.7% as semiconductor equipment recovered, and Intel up 9.3% after a BofA double upgrade. Oracle fell 8.5% as investors questioned the cash cost of its AI cloud build-out, while Adobe dropped 5.5% after hours despite stronger results and guidance, as CFO Dan Durn’s exit kept AI disruption worries alive.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, the DAX edged up 0.1% to 24,210, and the FTSE 100 gained 0.5% as investors balanced the ECB’s 0.25 percentage point rate hike with easing late-day geopolitical pressure. SAP fell 6.6% after Oracle’s AI spending concerns hit software sentiment, while Deutsche Telekom dropped 3.1% on reports of a renewed T-Mobile US merger push. Siemens Energy rose 6.0%, RWE gained 3.4%, and Infineon added 2.6% as power, utilities and chips found buyers. Markets now watch whether lower oil can calm inflation before the next ECB signals.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities rallied on Friday as Wall Street’s chip rebound and lower oil lifted risk appetite, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index up 3.3%. South Korea led the move as the Kospi jumped 7.8%, with Samsung Electronics up 11.0% and SK Hynix up 7.7% as investors returned to memory and AI supply-chain names. Japan’s Nikkei gained 3.5%, helped by Tokyo Electron up 10.3% and SoftBank up 2.0%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.8% and Shanghai added 1.6%. The next test is whether peace headlines become lower energy prices.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Volatility</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility eased sharply on Thursday as investors embraced a more optimistic outlook on the Middle East</strong>. President Trump’s announcement that a framework agreement with Iran could be signed as soon as this weekend helped fuel a broad risk-on rally, lifting equities while sending oil prices and volatility lower. The <strong>VIX fell 12.5% to 19.44</strong>, while <strong>VIX1D </strong>closed at 21.09 and <strong>VIX9D </strong>at 20.66, signalling that immediate fears have subsided. Attention now turns to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and updated economic projections, while today’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey could influence interest-rate expectations heading into the weekend.</li> <li><strong>SPX weekly expected move:</strong> At the start of the week, options markets implied a move of approximately <strong>±151 points (±2.05%)</strong> for the S&P 500. Following this week’s strong rebound, the index has already covered a significant portion of that expected range.</li> <li><strong>Today’s options indicator: upside skew.</strong> Same-day SPX options imply an expected move of approximately <strong>±68 points (±0.92%)</strong>. Around at-the-money strikes, call implied volatility remains notably higher than put implied volatility, while call activity continues to outpace put activity. In practical terms, traders appear more focused on participating in additional upside than protecting against an immediate decline. However, Iran has yet to formally confirm a final agreement, meaning geopolitical headlines remain a potential source of volatility.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Digital Assets</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets largely held on to this week’s gains </strong>as improving risk sentiment continued to support the asset class. Bitcoin traded near <strong>$63,283</strong>, while Ether hovered around <strong>$1,663</strong>, consolidating after Thursday’s relief rally sparked by optimism surrounding a potential Iran agreement. While the major cryptocurrencies were little changed overnight, crypto-linked equities continued to outperform, with IBIT gaining 2.8%, ETHA 3.4%, COIN 4.2%, MSTR 4.2%, and miners MARA and RIOT advancing nearly 8% and 9%, respectively.</li> <li>Options activity remained elevated ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with sizeable positions appearing in MSTR, IBIT and COIN. However, much of the flow appeared linked to hedging, financing transactions and position adjustments rather than outright bearish bets. The broader picture remains constructive: easing geopolitical tensions have improved sentiment across risk assets, although investors continue to watch ETF flows and next week’s Fed decision for confirmation that the recent recovery can extend further.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Commodities</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil slumped after President Trump</strong><strong> </strong><strong>talked up</strong><strong> another</strong><strong> peace deal</strong>, with markets this time appearing increasingly willing to believe it may be for real, despite the lack of confirmation from Tehran. Brent crude fell to a two-month low amid expectations of a surge in supply from tankers currently stranded in the Gulf. Some of the optimism has also been driven by a recent, albeit still modest, increase in the flow of oil, gas and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz.</li> <li>Goldman Sachs now assumes oil exports from Gulf producers could normalize by late August, a scenario that may be achieved if Hormuz flows recover to around 70% of pre-war levels, supported by ongoing pipeline rerouting efforts. The bank also lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to USD 80 per barrel, roughly in line with the current market price of around USD 79, which is some 20% above pre-war levels.</li> <li><strong>Gold, along with most other metals, rallied strongly </strong>following Trump's announcement as short sellers, who had recently dominated price action, were forced to reduce exposure, helping lift bullion by around USD 200. However, before the market can look beyond the next headline and refocus on longer-term supportive themes, investors need confidence that the inflation genie is being pushed back into the bottle. For that to happen, markets will need a peace agreement signed and endorsed by both sides. Sentiment is likely to remain weak as long trading continues below the 200-day moving average, last at USD 4,445. </li> <li><strong>The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a fourth weekly los</strong>s, with the current 2.3% decline reducing its year-to-date gain to around 20%. The weakness has been broad-based, with 20 of the 26 major futures markets trading lower on the week, led by losses in crude oil, fuel products, gold and silver all down 4–5%. Meanwhile, the recent slump across the agriculture sector is showing signs of easing with gains in wheat, coffee and cattle offsetting continued weakness in soybeans, corn, sugar and cotton.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Fixed Income</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields </strong><strong>fell sharply along with the drop in crude oil prices</strong>, effectively erasing the surge in yields sparked by the May US jobs data last Friday. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell more than ten basis points at one point to just below 4.04% before rebounding to the 4.07% area by early Friday. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield also fell 10 basis points to below 4.45% at one point before rebounding to 4.47%. </li> <li><strong>European yields fell in the wake of the ECB</strong>, which warned on the need for further tightening, but did not inspire a resetting of forward rate expectations. The benchmark 2-year German Schatz closing some four basis points lower at 2.68%, but that was before the large slide in US yields on a sell-off in crude oil – and energy prices are one of the chief drivers of renewed inflation concerns in Europe.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><strong>Currencies</strong></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar</strong><strong> rallied early Thursday, only to sell-off sharply on hopes for an Iran war ceasefire and powerful recovery in risk sentiment. </strong>After the ECB failed to drive European short rates higher, EURUSD traded as low as 1.1503, emphasizing the importance of the recent 1.1500 support, before rallying as high as 1.1590 and then easing back to 1.1565 by early Friday in Europe. </li> <li><strong>Falling US treasury yields Thursday threw no durable support the Japanese yen’s way, as </strong><strong>USDJPY</strong> rebounded from the sell-off inspired by the rally in US treasuries on the slide in crude oil prices. After trading above 160.50 early in the day Thursday, USDJPY sold off as low as 159.58 before rebounding to 160.30 by early European hours Friday.</li> <li><strong>Pro-cyclical G10 currencies rebounded strongly against the US dollar on the powerful rally in risk sentiment. After posting a </strong> low of 0.6979, <strong>AUDUSD</strong> closed near 0.7050 Thursday before pulling back slightly early Friday. <strong>USDSEK</strong> posted a multi-week high above 9.56 Thursday before reversing sharply and closing Thursday back in the recent range near 9.44.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 12 June, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>Trump cancels planned strikes. US PPI hotter than expected</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Tech stocks led the rally ahead of SpaceX’s $75B IPO</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar weakens on Iran deal hopes; euro jumps after ECB’s first hike since 2023</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil at 2</span>‑<span>month low; gold +3.4%, biggest daily jump in 2 months</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasuries rally; 30Y auction tails</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US-Iran peace deal signals:</span></strong><span> President Trump canceled planned military strikes against Iran and said a deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, triggering a sharp cross-asset reversal — oil fell, equities surged, yields dropped and the dollar weakened. Iran's state media subsequently reported that a source said the country had not yet approved any agreement text, leaving the situation fluid.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US PPI (May):</span></strong><span> Producer prices rose 1.1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year, the fastest pace since November 2022, driven by Iran war-related energy pressures. Core PPI ex-food and energy rose 0.4% month-on-month, below the 0.5% estimate, providing a modest offset.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US jobless claims:</span></strong><span> Initial claims rose 4,000 to 229,000 in the week ended June 6, above the 220,000 consensus, the highest reading since February. Continuing claims also rose to 1.795 million.</span></li> <li><strong><span>ECB rate hike:</span></strong><span> The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the first hike since 2023, citing inflation pressures from the Iran war and prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The ECB reiterated it will not pre-commit to future action; markets are pricing another 25bp move in September.</span></li> <li><strong><span>US tariff refunds:</span></strong><span> The US Treasury refunded nearly $22 billion in tariff revenue in May — roughly equal to duties collected during the month — following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down a major component of Trump's trade policy.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USMCA uncertainty:</span></strong><span> Trump said he is "not looking to renew" the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, upending expectations for a July review milestone. Canada's trade minister said side deals would eventually resolve disputes.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Turkey holds rates:</span></strong><span> Turkey's central bank kept its one-week repo rate at 37% for a third consecutive meeting, signaling comfort with the current stance amid a cooling economy.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>US - </span></strong></span><span>US stocks jumped Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 1.8%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 930 points, as oil prices fell after Trump cancelled strikes on Iran and hinted at a regional deal. Tech shares led gains ahead of SpaceX’s IPO: Micron rose 11%, AMD 8%, Lam Research 12.7%, and Intel over 10% after a BofA upgrade. Oracle fell nearly 9% on cloud revenue and AI cost concerns. Adobe beat fiscal Q2 2026 estimates, driven by strong demand for its AI tools, however, departs company. Stock down 5.5% post-market. Hotter PPI data reinforced expectations of Fed rate hikes this year. </span></li> <li><strong>Europe</strong> - The DAX 40 ended slightly higher at 24,210 on Thursday as traders weighed renewed Middle East tensions and the ECB’s rate hike with higher inflation and lower growth forecasts. SAP fell over 6% after Oracle’s slide, and Deutsche Telekom dropped 3.7% on a reported T-Mobile US merger push. Siemens Energy, RWE, and Infineon gained 6.7%, 3.4%, and 3.1%, respectively.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong> - Asian markets were mixed Thursday amid Iran war tensions before late US peace signals. The Nikkei rose 0.1% as tech stabilized, and the Kospi rebounded 0.4% after a 4.5% drop, led by SK Hynix and Hanwha Ocean. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared a 1.7% intraday loss, while Hong Kong and mainland China fell, with Alibaba and Samsung dragging. The Kospi is set to jump about 6.5% Friday as chip stocks follow the US semiconductor rally and Iran deal optimism.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Friday: SpaceX IPO</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>USD</span></strong><span> weakened broadly Thursday as optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal spurred risk-on sentiment. After President Trump called off planned strikes and hinted an agreement was near, Dollar Index fell 0.31% to 96.27—its sharpest drop since May 6.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong><span> dropped 0.37% to 159.96 before nudging back to around 160.06 in Asia as the initial risk-on move faded; the break below early</span>‑<span>May trend support turns momentum bearish with the 50</span>‑<span>day moving average now a key downside focus. </span></li> <li><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong><span> rose 0.37% to 1.1581, its strongest daily gain since May 8, helped by the ECB’s first rate hike since 2023. <strong>GBPUSD</strong> also advanced, riding the broader “peace rally” in risk assets.</span></li> <li><strong>USDCAD</strong> was a notable outlier, rising 0.16% to 1.3968, its highest close since December 2025, despite general dollar softness. </li> <li><strong>USDMXN</strong> fell 1.0% to 17.2479, the steepest one‑day drop since April 8 and its fourth straight decline, reflecting the risk-on tone.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Oil drops to two-month low:</span></strong><span> WTI crude tumbled almost 3% to around $85.13 a barrel — the lowest since April 17 — after Trump canceled planned Iran strikes and signaled a peace deal was near. Brent had earlier whipsawed above $93 when Trump threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal before reversing sharply lower. In late US hours, WTI slid further to around $86.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold surges on Iran deal hopes:</span></strong><span> Bullion rose 3.4% to $4,212.26 an ounce, its biggest single-day gain in more than two months, as the dollar and Treasury yields fell following Trump's comments. Gold remains down approximately 5.7% year-to-date, with ETF holdings at their lowest since early December 2025 after three consecutive days of outflows.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Copper supply squeeze intensifies:</span></strong><span> Global traders are bidding for mined copper concentrate at record-negative treatment charges — around minus $220 per ton — as an acute ore shortage forces smelters to compete aggressively. SHFE brokers hold net-short positions of 30,861 copper contracts across the front seven months, reflecting near-term caution despite the structural supply tightness.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasuries rally on Iran deal signals:</span></strong><span> The 10-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.47% after Trump canceled Iran strikes, reversing earlier pressure from the hot PPI print. In late US hours, yields fell further as oil slid, with bond traders unwinding some of the rate-hike bets that had built up following last Friday's strong jobs report.</span></li> <li><strong><span>30-year auction tails:</span></strong><span> The Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.020%, tailing the 5.008% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand came in slightly below expectations. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.33, modestly above the prior auction's 2.30. Indirect bidders took 59.95% of the takedown. The 30-year yield remains above 5%, a level that continues to attract attention given elevated inflation expectations.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Fed hike bets remain in play:</span></strong><span> Bond traders continue to hold options positions targeting multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months, with some positioning for a move as early as September. BNY's chief investment officer has warned that persistently elevated inflation — even after the war-driven energy shock fades — will keep rates higher for longer and weigh on bonds over the coming years.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Iran day two, vol surges - 11 June 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The VIX 9-day index hit 25.67 on Wednesday while the 30-day reading sat at 22.22, a kink in the term structure that is almost entirely explained by one event arriving in less than a week: the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16 and 17. Meanwhile, US forces struck Iran for a second consecutive day and May CPI printed at 4.2% year-on-year, its highest level since April 2023, with energy costs up 23.5%.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief – Iran day two, vol surges – 11 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p><strong>US forces struck Iran for a second consecutive day and May CPI printed at 4.2% year-on-year</strong>, its highest level since April 2023, with a 23.5% jump in energy costs accounting for the bulk of the increase; the full macro breakdown is in the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---11-june-2026-11062026" data-id="04E0409056B74914803EB0727ACEAA35" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - 11 June 2026</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>S&P 500</strong> closed at 7,267, down 1.62%; <strong>Nasdaq 100</strong> fell 2.0% to 28,508; the<strong> iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)</strong> slipped 1.10%</li> <li><strong>WTI crude </strong>rose 0.53% to $90.51, supported by continued supply disruption fears in the Middle East; <strong>gold </strong>fell 0.56% to $4,110, approaching the psychologically significant $4,000 level</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Neutral / Chop – VIX 22.2, 20-day realised vol 12.9% (increasing), S&P 500 +2.67% above its 50-day moving average</li> </ul> <p><em>Data: Saxo platform as of 10 June 2026 close.</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 10 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <p><strong>Single-name confirmed opening flow</strong> leaned modestly bullish, with call structures dominating in technology and semiconductor names, while put activity in crypto-linked equities kept the read from becoming a clean risk-on tape.</p> <p><strong>Broad-market index and ETF confirmed opening flow</strong> leaned decisively toward downside protection, with put premium outweighing calls by a wide margin across equity indices and credit instruments, pointing to institutional portfolios building event-risk hedges ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting rather than exiting positions outright.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>The VIX closed at 22.22 on Wednesday, its highest close since April, while the 9-day VIX index climbed to 25.67, materially above the 30-day reading, reflecting concentrated near-term fear in the window that spans the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. The CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) surged more than 14% to 32.18 as spot gold approached the $4,000 level, adding another pocket of elevated implied volatility in the commodity space.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Calendar spread into the FOMC vol hump.</strong> <em>Illustrative only – not a trade recommendation.</em> Near-term implied volatility is running materially above longer-dated implied volatility, with the 9-day VIX index at 25.67 against a 30-day VIX of 22.22, because the options market is pricing a specific, time-bounded risk event. A calendar spread captures that differential by selling a near-dated option at a strike close to the current price and buying the same strike in a further-dated expiry; the near leg decays faster, and the position may profit if the underlying stays close to the short strike as front-month implied volatility normalises after the event passes. Selecting a back-dated leg with a maturity well beyond the event date provides a buffer if volatility does not fully collapse once the decision is announced. The main risk is a large directional gap in the underlying following the event, which can drive the short leg sharply against the position before time decay has had the opportunity to work.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Iron condor in a neutral, range-bound regime.</strong> <em>Illustrative only – not a trade recommendation.</em> The current regime appears to be neutral/chop: 20-day realised volatility sits at 12.9%, well below the VIX at 22.2, meaning implied volatility is running roughly 70% above what the market has actually delivered in the recent past. An iron condor – selling an out-of-the-money call spread and a put spread simultaneously on the same underlying and expiry – is designed to potentially capture that implied/realised volatility differential if the underlying stays within the defined range by expiration. Tighter strike placement around the current price improves the probability of staying within the profitable zone, at the cost of collecting less absolute premium. The maximum loss is the width of the wider spread minus the net premium collected, which is realised if price breaks sharply through one of the short strikes before expiry.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Yesterday’s session closed with institutional hedging running at a meaningful pace in equity indices and credit instruments, yet single-name call flow in technology and semiconductors stayed constructive, which is not the profile of a market that is truly panicking. <br /> <br /> Today’s event calendar is among the busiest of the week: the ECB rate decision at 12:15 GMT and Lagarde’s press conference at 12:45 GMT, US May PPI and weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, and Adobe earnings after the close. Any guidance from the ECB suggesting a faster-than-expected hiking path could sharpen volatility across rate-sensitive names and strengthen the case for the calendar spread structure, while a benign PPI read would offer some breathing room to the range-bound positioning captured by the iron condor setup.<span ></span></p> <p>Sources: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---11-june-2026-11062026" data-id="04E0409056B74914803EB0727ACEAA35" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - 11 June 2026</a></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---the-fear-gauge-already-knows---10-june-2026-10062026" data-id="F8AB7243B1B54FA2B6140D1F52666BCC" data-type="Article">Options Brief - The fear gauge already knows - 10 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---semis-rebound-cpi-looms---9-june-2026-09062026" data-id="072AD870A1C04BEFABAD9A1FB2E81865" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Semis rebound CPI looms - 9 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---options-amplified-fridays-sell-off---8-june-2026-08062026" data-id="4782F4CCCAFE44D08FEF66B051CA4C6D" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Options amplified Fridays sell-off - 8 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---broadcom-shock-rotation-wins---5-june-2026-05062026" data-id="81DDFDAFDFB2403A83DD2DB2B35A9D63" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Broadcom shock rotation wins - 5 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The either-or moment for US stocks and gold.</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:43:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Markets find support, continue to ignore geopolitics.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/the-either-or-moment-for-us-stocks-and-gold/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> <ul> <li>In "<span><a href="https://www.carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/the-abundance-illusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The abundance illusion</a></span>" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display.</li> <li>HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to <span><a href="https://kardamow.substack.com/p/why-did-brent-fall-when-eleven-million" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a Kardamow substack article</a></span> that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics.</li> <li>An FT Article looks at <span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/31450147-1b85-4ecf-a60d-0c0e3a298ae7?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system</a></span> for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast.</li> <li>Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls <span><a href="https://stratechery.com/2026/the-iphones-last-stand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The iPhone's Last Stand</a></span>.</li> <li>This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. <span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UW16coIloM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy</a></span>.</li> </ul> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Oracle earnings: big cloud demand, bigger data centre bills</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Oracle’s cloud demand is strong</strong>, led by artificial intelligence computing contracts.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Investors focused less on growth </strong>and more on data centre spending.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>The wider AI story is becoming a cash-flow story</strong>, not only a revenue story.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Oracle’s latest results looked strong at first glance. The company reported after the United States market close on 10 June 2026, with faster cloud growth, a bigger contract backlog and guidance that still points to rapid expansion. For a normal software company, that would usually be enough to keep investors calm.</span></p> <p><span>Oracle is no longer a normal software story. It is becoming an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. In simple terms, it is trying to rent huge amounts of computing power to companies that need to train and run AI models.</span></p> <p><span>That shift is exciting, but expensive. Very expensive. Oracle closed at 201.26 USD on 10 June 2026, then fell as much as 12% in pre-market trading on 11 June as investors focused on the rising data centre bill rather than the headline growth.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The good news was hiding in plain sight</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Oracle is best known for database software, the digital filing cabinets that many large companies still rely on. It also sells business software and cloud services. Cloud means customers rent computing power and software over the internet rather than running everything on their own machines.</span></p> <p><span>In the quarter, Oracle’s total revenue rose 21% to 19.2 billion USD. Its cloud infrastructure revenue rose 93% to 5.8 billion USD. That part of the business rents server capacity, storage and computing power. It is the area investors watch most closely because AI models need enormous computing resources.</span></p> <p><span>The other important number was Oracle’s remaining performance obligations. This is an unpleasant phrase, but the idea is simple. It means revenue that customers have committed to pay in future periods, but Oracle has not yet booked as sales. That figure reached 638 billion USD, up sharply from last year.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, this is the strongest part of the story. Oracle is not building data centres in hope alone. Customers are signing large contracts. Many of these are linked to AI workloads, including demand from OpenAI and other large customers.</span></p> <p><span>This is like a hotel with many rooms already reserved before construction is finished. That is good. The only problem is that the hotel still needs concrete, electricity, air conditioning and a very patient bank manager.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bill arrived before the full payoff</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The market reaction was not about weak demand. It was about spending.</span></p> <p><span>Capital expenditure means money spent on long-term assets, such as data centres, servers, chips and power equipment. Oracle reported capital expenditure of about 16.5 billion USD in the quarter ended 31 May 2026. For the full fiscal year, spending reached 55.7 billion USD, above the company’s earlier projection of 50 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>The next year looks even bigger. Oracle expects about 70 billion USD of net capital expenditure in fiscal year 2027, with the reported figure potentially higher because of prepayments for some components. The company also plans to raise around 40 billion USD through debt and equity.</span></p> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Bank analysis. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p><span>This matters because cloud infrastructure is not the same as selling traditional software. Old software could be copied and sold many times at high profit margins. AI infrastructure is more like building a power station. It can generate attractive long-term cash flows, but it needs large upfront investment.</span></p> <p><span>That changes the investor question. It is no longer only “how fast can Oracle grow?” It is also “how much must Oracle spend to grow, and what return will it earn on that spending?”. </span><span >That question is now spreading across the whole AI supply chain. </span></p> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why this matters beyond Oracle</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Oracle’s results are another sign that AI is moving from story to infrastructure. The first phase rewarded companies that sold the picks and shovels, especially advanced chips. The next phase may test the companies building the mines.</span></p> <p><span>That does not make Oracle’s strategy wrong. Large contracts, customer prepayments and customer-supplied graphics processing units (GPUs), the chips used for AI work, can reduce some funding pressure. Oracle has also shown that demand for its cloud platform is accelerating.</span></p> <p><span>But the market is becoming more selective. Investors are asking whether AI infrastructure can produce durable returns after depreciation, funding costs and competitive pressure. Depreciation is the accounting cost of spreading an asset’s value over time. It matters because AI servers can become outdated faster than traditional infrastructure.</span></p> <p><span>This is the key insight. In AI, growth and profitability may not arrive at the same time. Revenue can rise quickly while free cash flow, the cash left after investment spending, stays under pressure. That is not automatically bad, but it requires confidence in future demand, pricing and execution.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is funding. If Oracle needs more debt or sells more shares than expected, investors may worry about dilution and balance sheet pressure. </span></p> <p><span>The second risk is customer concentration. Large AI contracts can be powerful, but they can also make results depend on a small number of very large customers. If one delays, renegotiates or shifts workloads elsewhere, the impact can be meaningful.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is returns. Data centres require land, power, cooling, chips and time. If pricing falls, utilisation disappoints or AI chips become obsolete faster than expected, future returns may look less attractive. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Separate demand from economics.</strong> Strong bookings are useful, but cash returns decide long-term value.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch funding quality.</strong> Customer prepayments are better than relying only on debt or new shares.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare business models.</strong> Chip suppliers, cloud operators and utilities carry different risks.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Keep position sizing honest.</strong> AI infrastructure can be powerful, but it is not a free lunch. </span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The power meter matters</strong></h3> <p><span>Oracle’s results are not a simple “good quarter, bad stock reaction” story. They show where the AI market is heading next. The easy part is believing demand will grow. The harder part is judging who can build capacity, fund it sensibly and earn good returns after the bills are paid. </span></p> <p><span>Oracle has strong demand and a large opportunity, but it also has a large construction project attached to its balance sheet. For investors, the lesson is useful beyond one company: in the AI boom, the winners may not only be those with the biggest dreams, but those that can keep the lights on without letting the meter spin out of control.</span></p> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<br /> <br /> <div> <div data-qa="rte-top"> <div> <p><em>The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.</em></p> </div> </div> </div> </em></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Oracle Corp</span> <span>Quarterly earnings</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 11 June 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:03:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 11 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US tech sold off sharply, Europe was mixed, and Asia extended losses as oil and geopolitical risk rose.</li> <li><strong>Volatility: </strong>CPI, US-Iran tensions, oil above $94, VIX 22, ECB, PPI, downside skew</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin above $62.5k, Ethereum rebound, Fed focus</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold nears USD 4,000 amid continued liquidation; oil edges higher after US strikes in Iran</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Treasuries hover in a range as US May CPI was in line with expectations.</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: USD frozen in the local range since its recent break higher, may be taking its lead from US treasury yields. </li> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: ECB rate decision</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US launched a second day of strikes on Iran</strong>, raising fears that peace efforts could collapse and the conflict could drag on. Trump accused Tehran of stalling on an interim deal, while Iran vowed to stand firm. Earlier, the US carried out “self-defense strikes” after an American helicopter was downed, and Iran hit US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait in response.</li> <li><strong>US annual inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026</strong>, the highest since April 2023 and third straight increase, driven by a 23.5% jump in energy costs amid the Iran conflict. Gasoline rose 40.5% and fuel oil 58.9%. Monthly CPI was up 0.5%, with energy over 60% of the gain. <strong>Core inflation </strong>reached 2.9% year-on-year as expected, while <strong>month-on-month core CPI slowed to 0.2%, the only number that surprised versus expectations, which were for a +0.3% rise.</strong></li> <li><strong>The Bank of Canada kept its key overnight rate at 2.25%</strong> for a fifth straight meeting in June 2026, as expected, and left the Bank Rate and deposit rate at 2.5% and 2.20%. It sees limited spillover from higher energy prices, expects inflation near 3% before easing toward 2%, and notes weak economic activity and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty.</li> <li><strong>The European Central Bank look set to raise interest rates</strong> for the first time since 2023 due the energy-related rise in inflation. The deposit rate is expected to be lifted by a quarter point to 2.25%, with new quarterly forecasts likely to suggest inflation will quicken further. The ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging.</li> <li><strong>Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was hospitalized Wednesday</strong> for treatment of an issue that will see him miss next Monday-Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting, though officials said he would likely make a statement in conjunction with the meeting. The market is pricing more than 90% likelihood that the BoJ will hike the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.00%, which would be the first hike since December of last year and bring the rate to its highest level since 1995.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>1215 – ECB Rate Decision</li> <li>1230 – US May PPI</li> <li>1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> <li>1245 – ECB's Lagarde Press Conference</li> <li>1700 – US to sell USD 22 billion 30-year bonds</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday (yesterday)</strong>: Oracle</li> <li><strong>Thursday (today): </strong> Adobe, Dollarama</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 7,267, the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.0%, and the Dow dropped 1.9% as US-Iran tensions and another technology unwind hit risk appetite. Chipmakers led the pressure, with Qualcomm down 6.9%, AMD off 4.9% and Nvidia lower by 3.7%, while Super Micro Computer plunged 28.0% after unveiling plans to raise $7 billion through equity financing. Cracker Barrel bucked the selloff, surging 22.6% after raising revenue guidance, while Oracle fell 8.9% after hours as heavy AI capital spending overshadowed strong cloud growth.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: Europe was steadier, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, the DAX falling 1.0% to 24,195, the Euro Stoxx 50 losing 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 rising 0.3%. The region was caught between softer US core inflation signals and higher oil prices, so defensives and energy held up better than cyclical and technology shares. Siemens Energy dropped 6.5% as investors cut exposure to high-growth industrial names, Soitec fell around 10.6% after a broker downgrade, while Shell gained 1.9% on stronger crude and Nestlé rose 2.6% as investors rotated into staples.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities extended losses this morning, with MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan down around 1.0%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lower by 1.5%, South Korea’s Kospi down around 1.2%, and Taiwan also falling 1.5%. The selling followed Wall Street’s tech-led decline and fresh US strikes on Iran, which pushed Brent crude close to $95 and kept the yen near 160.5 per dollar. Chip-heavy markets stayed vulnerable after SK Hynix fell 7.5% and Samsung Electronics dropped 6.1% on Wednesday, while HSBC and Standard Chartered remained in focus after renewed China-related regulatory concerns. Markets now watch oil, currencies and whether Asia’s AI trade can settle after this week’s sharp swings.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility surged on Wednesday as investors weighed inflation data</strong>, escalating US-Iran tensions, and another round of weakness in technology stocks. The S&P 500 fell 1.62%, while the<strong> VIX rose to 22.22</strong>, its highest close since April. Although headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-on-year, much of the increase was driven by higher energy prices, while core inflation came in at a softer-than-expected 2.9%.</li> <li><strong>Options markets suggest volatility is likely to remain elevated through the end of the week</strong>. Based on current SPX pricing, traders are pricing in an expected move of approximately <strong>110 points, or 1.5%</strong>, between Wednesday's close and Friday's expiration. Today's option chain also reveals a modest defensive bias, with near-the-money puts trading at higher premiums than equivalent calls. <strong>Investors continue to pay more for downside protection than upside exposure</strong>, although positioning remains far from panic levels. Attention now turns to US producer prices, jobless claims, the ECB rate decision and press conference, and Adobe's earnings release after the close.</li> <li><strong>Volatility indicator of the day:</strong> SPX options for today's expiration show a <strong>mild downside skew</strong>, with put premiums richer than comparable calls around the current market level. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets steadied overnight</strong> as investors cautiously returned to risk assets following Wednesday's inflation report.</li> <li><strong>Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $62,569</strong>, while <strong>Ethereum gained 1.7% to $1,648</strong>. Solana outperformed with a 3.0% advance and XRP added 1.7%, pointing to a broader recovery across major cryptocurrencies. <strong>Crypto-related equities were less enthusiastic</strong>. IBIT slipped 0.2% and ETHA fell 1.6%, suggesting traditional market participants remain cautious despite the rebound in underlying digital assets. </li> <li><strong>Options activity reinforced that message</strong>, with institutional investors continuing to favour protective positions in IBIT, COIN and MSTR ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. <strong>For now, crypto markets are stabilising</strong>, but sentiment remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, broader equity market volatility and the outlook for interest rates.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Gold’s weeklong slump extended in Asia</strong>, with prices tumbling towards USD 4,000 - a seven-month low - before rebounding into the European session. Selling accelerated last week after gold broke below its 200-day moving average, currently at USD 4,442, triggering technical momentum selling and forcing some long liquidation. The decline gathered further pace on Wednesday following the strong US inflation print and renewed gains in oil prices after fresh attacks in the Middle East. Bullion has now corrected 38.2% of the 2022–2026 rally, with a sustained break below USD 4,000 potentially opening the way towards USD 3,600, the 50% retracement.</li> <li><strong>Gold’s USD 1,570 tumble from the January peak</strong>, and not least its weakness during the Middle East conflict, has by now triggered a near-complete reset in investor sentiment. This is reflected in falling futures open interest, ETF outflows, and a slowdown in physical demand. <strong>While the longer-term supportive themes are likely to reassert themselves once the inflation outlook stabilises</strong>, the near-term outlook remains clouded by speculative selling, long liquidation, and rate hike fears.</li> <li><strong>Oil traded higher, albeit at a relatively modest pace so far</strong>, after US forces struck targets in Iran for a second consecutive day. Renewed hostilities threaten to prolong the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely disrupted flows of crude oil, refined fuels, and natural gas since the conflict escalated in late February. Meanwhile, US strategic and commercial crude inventories declined for a second straight week, despite indications that the recent record pace of crude and fuel exports is beginning to ease.</li> <li><strong>CBOT soybean futures rose for first time in nine sessions</strong>, rebounding from multi-month lows as traders shifted their focus to today’s updated crop forecasts from the USDA. Analysts expect the report to show lower U.S. wheat production estimates, while raising forecasts for corn and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina following favourable growing conditions and strong harvest results.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields were not very reactive to the US May CPI release</strong>, as the data was largely in line with expectations. At the front-end of the US treasury yield curve, the benchmark 2-year yield bottomed at a three-day low near 4.10% before rising to 4.15% and then easing back toward 4.13% as the market awaits the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh next Wednesday. At the longer end of the curve, the US 10-year treasury yield continues to chop around in the range above 4.50% to 4.56%, trading near 4.54% early Thursday after Wednesday’s auction of 10-year treasury notes saw the best demand metrics of 2026.</li> <li><strong>Further weakness in risk sentiment Thursday saw a modest widening of high yield credit spreads to a new high since mid-April</strong>, as the Bloomberg measure we track of the high yield bond spread to US treasuries widened two basis points to 275 basis points.</li> <li><strong>Ahead of today’s (Thursday’s) ECB meeting and nearly universal expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike</strong>, Eurozone government bond yield rose close to local highs, with the benchmark 2-year German Schatz closing some five basis points higher at 2.72% Wednesday, about five basis points below the cycle highs this year. The market will look for guidance on the level of the ECB’s determination to continue its new hiking path if inflation levels don’t subside, even as the growth outlook has dimmed. Forward expectations suggest the next hike will most likely come in September, with a slight bias in favour of yet another hike through the December meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar trades with very low beta to risk sentiment, seemingly having its eye more on US treasury yields</strong>, which were little changed yesterday after the release of the US May CPI data (see above). <strong>EURUSD</strong> seems frozen in its new range after breaking below 1.1575, hardly straying away from the 1.1550 area over the last 24 hours, while <strong>USDJPY</strong> continues to dribble a bit higher above 160.50 as everyone wonders what Japan’s recently very quiet Ministry of Finance is thinking after its quite heavy handed market intervention starting in late April from very near current levels. As well, it emerged late Wednesday in Tokyo that BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalized and will not attend next week’s BoJ meeting, though apparently likely to issue a statement. Elsewhere, <strong>AUDUSD</strong> has so far survived an assault on the psychologically important 0.7000 level, dipping as low as 0.6988 early Thursday before trading back near 0.7010 by early European hours.</li> <li><strong>CAD was unreactive to the Bank of Canada rate announcement</strong> and policy statement, which brought no new guidance of note as the key USDCAD exchange rate hovers near the top of the range of the last several months near 1.3950.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>ETF investing for beginners: where to start</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 03:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>ETFs can be a simple way to build a portfolio without having to pick individual stocks. Think of them as baskets: one ETF can give you exposure to hundreds or even thousands of companies, bonds, or commodities.</p> <p>For a first-time investor, the key question is not “which ETF is best?” but <strong>what role do you want it to play in your portfolio?</strong></p> <p>Here are 10 simple starting points from the ETF list.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>1. Broad US market exposure</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Access to the US stock market, especially large companies.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)</li> <li>iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV or CSPX)</li> <li>State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)</li> </ul> <p>This is often the simplest core holding for investors who want exposure to the 500 largest listed companies in the US. It includes names across technology, healthcare, financials, consumer companies and more.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> A long-term core portfolio.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Heavy exposure to US equities and large-cap stocks.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>2. Total US stock market</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Broader US exposure beyond the S&P 500.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)</li> </ul> <p>This includes large, mid and smaller US companies. It is broader than the S&P 500, so investors get exposure to more of the US economy.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Investors who want the US market in one fund.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Still very dependent on the US market cycle.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>3. Global developed markets</strong></h3> <h3 class="heading--3"></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you: </strong><span >Exposure to companies outside the US, mainly in developed markets.</span></p> <strong> <p><strong >Consider:<br /> </strong></p> </strong> <strong> </strong> <ul> <li>Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA)</li> </ul> <p><span >This gives access to markets such as Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada. It can help reduce reliance on US equities alone.</span></p> <p><strong >Good for</strong><span >: </span><span >Diversifying away from only US stocks.<br /> </span><strong >Main risk</strong><span >: Currency moves and slower growth in some developed markets.</span></p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>4. All-world equity exposure</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> A global stock market portfolio in one ETF.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>iShares MSCI World (URTH)</li> <li>Vanguard FTSE All World (VWRA)</li> <li>Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT)</li> </ul> <p>These are useful for investors who want a simple “own the world” approach. They can include exposure across multiple countries and sectors.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> A simple long-term equity core.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Global equities can still fall together during major risk-off periods.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>5. Emerging markets</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to faster-growing but more volatile markets.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)</li> <li>Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)</li> </ul> <p>These ETFs typically include markets such as China, India, Taiwan, Korea and others. They can offer higher growth potential, but also come with higher political, currency and market risks.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Adding long-term growth diversification.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Higher volatility and country-specific risks.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3><strong>6. Technology growth</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to large technology and growth companies.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQ)</li> <li>Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM)</li> </ul> <p>These ETFs are popular with investors who want exposure to mega-cap technology, AI, cloud, software and innovation themes.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Investors comfortable with growth and volatility.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Valuations can become expensive, and tech selloffs can be sharp.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>7. Semiconductors and AI hardware</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to chipmakers and semiconductor companies.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)</li> <li>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</li> </ul> <p>This is more focused than broad tech. It can benefit from AI, data centres, memory and chip demand, but it can also be more cyclical.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Investors who want a more targeted AI infrastructure theme.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> High volatility, valuation risk and earnings cyclicality.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3><strong>8. Bonds for stability</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to fixed income, which can help balance equity risk.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)</li> <li>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)</li> <li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)</li> </ul> <p>Bond ETFs can play a stabilising role in a portfolio, especially for investors who do not want to be fully exposed to equities.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Diversification and income potential.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Bond prices can fall when yields rise.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>9. Gold as a hedge</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to gold prices.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)</li> <li>iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)</li> </ul> <p>Gold is often used as a hedge against geopolitical risk, inflation concerns, currency weakness or market stress. It does not generate income, but it can behave differently from stocks and bonds.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Portfolio hedging.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Gold can fall when real yields rise or the US dollar strengthens.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>10. Dividend-focused investing</strong></h3> <p><strong>What it gives you:</strong> Exposure to companies that pay dividends.</p> <p><strong>Consider:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)</li> <li>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD)</li> </ul> <p>Dividend ETFs can appeal to investors looking for quality companies, income potential and a slightly more defensive equity style.</p> <p><strong>Good for:</strong> Investors who want income-oriented equity exposure.<br /> <strong>Main risk:</strong> Dividend stocks can still fall, and high yield does not always mean high quality.</p> <div > <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </div> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>A simple way to think about portfolio building</strong></h3> <p>A beginner does not need 10 ETFs. In fact, too many ETFs can create overlap.</p> <p>A simple structure could look like this:</p> <p><strong>Core:</strong> S&P 500, total US market, or all-world equity ETF<br /> <strong>Diversifier:</strong> Developed markets or emerging markets ETF<br /> <strong>Stability:</strong> Bond ETF<br /> <strong>Satellite themes:</strong> Technology, semiconductors, gold, or dividend ETF</p> <p>The core should usually do the heavy lifting. The satellite themes can add flavour, but they should not take over the plate — unless the investor is very comfortable with volatility.</p> <h3 class="heading--3"><strong>Bottom line</strong></h3> <p>For first-time investors, broad ETFs are usually the cleanest starting point. The S&P 500, total US market, or global equity ETFs can form the foundation. Once that foundation is in place, investors can consider adding bonds for balance, gold for hedging, or themes like technology and semiconductors for growth potential.</p> <p>The big idea: <strong>start simple, stay diversified, and know what job each ETF is doing in the portfolio.</strong></p></div></div><div><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>AutoInvest</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 11 June, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 01:14:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US strikes Iran for 2<sup>nd</sup> day. US CPI and Core CPI matches expectations.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Chipmakers led losses; Nasdaq 100 lost 2%, SMCI plunged 28%</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar holds firm; high CPI and Iran strikes dampen Fed-cut hopes</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Brent crude surged; gold fell for a third straight session</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>UST yields bear</span>‑<span>steepened; 10</span>‑<span>year up to 4.546%</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>The US launched a second day of strikes on Iran</span></strong></span><span>, raising fears that peace efforts could collapse and the conflict could drag on. Trump accused Tehran of stalling on an interim deal, while Iran vowed to stand firm. Earlier, the US carried out “self-defense strikes” after an American helicopter was downed, and Iran hit US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait in response.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US annual inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026</span></strong></span><span>, the highest since April 2023 and third straight increase, driven by a 23.5% jump in energy costs amid the Iran conflict. Gasoline rose 40.5% and fuel oil 58.9%. Monthly CPI was up 0.5%, with energy over 60% of the gain. <strong>Core inflation reached 2.9% year-on-year, while monthly core CPI slowed to 0.2%.</strong></span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The Bank of Canada kept its key overnight rate at 2.25%</span></strong></span><span> for a fifth straight meeting in June 2026, as expected, and left the Bank Rate and deposit rate at 2.5% and 2.20%. It sees limited spillover from higher energy prices, expects inflation near 3% before easing toward 2%, and notes weak economic activity and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> Wall Street fell sharply on Wednesday as escalating US-Iran tensions and a continued rotation out of tech weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 7,267, its lowest close since May 5, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.0% — its first back-to-back 1%+ decline since March. The Dow shed 953 points (-1.9%). <strong>Chipmakers led losses</strong>: <strong>Qualcomm -6.1%, AMD -5.1%, Nvidia -3.7%, and Super Micro Computer plunged 28.0% on plans to raise $7b through equity financing</strong>. Cracker Barrel surged as much as 35% intraday after boosting its revenue guidance. Amazon's trucking expansion sent Old Dominion -5.1%, FedEx Freight -7%, and Saia -3.3%. <strong>In after-hours trade, Oracle fell ~7% after reporting higher-than-expected capex of $16.5bn for the quarter, overshadowing a modest beat on cloud infrastructure revenue.</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities were broadly muted on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 little changed as softer US core CPI offset Middle East concerns. The DAX fell 1.0% to 24,195, its lowest since May 15, with Siemens Energy the largest decliner at -6.5%. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed -0.66% at 6,010. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend, rising 0.3% to 10,255, led by Shell (+1.8%) on higher oil prices. The SMI gained 0.8%, with Nestle up 2.6%. HSBC and Standard Chartered extended declines in London, down ~8% and ~12% respectively since last Thursday on concerns over new China regulatory curbs. Soitec fell ~11% after a Jefferies downgrade.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian equities fell on Wednesday as tech selling resumed and Middle East tensions escalated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped ~2.7%. The Kospi tumbled 4.5% to 7,731, reversing part of Tuesday's 8.2% rebound, with SK Hynix falling 7.5%. The Nikkei 225 declined 0.7%, unable to recover from a lower open. The Hang Seng fell, with HSBC and Standard Chartered down 4.8% in Hong Kong. The STI dropped 1.3% to 4,959, its lowest since May 12, with Thai Beverage the largest decliner at -3.4%. This morning (Thursday), Asian markets are extending losses as US forces launched fresh overnight strikes on Iran. Brent crude surged above $95, and MSCI Asia Pacific is down ~1%, on track for a fifth loss in six sessions. The yen is hovering near 160.52 per dollar, close to its weakest since April.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Thursday: Chow Tai Fook, Adobe, Halma, Lennar, LPP, Do & Co</span></li> <li><span>Friday: SpaceX IPO</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>USD</strong> remains broadly firm as sticky US inflation and renewed US–Iran tensions limit Fed cut expectations and support safe-haven demand.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> hovered around 160.51, little changed on the day but near a new 52</span>‑<span>week low for the yen, heightening intervention concerns as JPY remains under heavy pressure despite being roughly 12% stronger versus the dollar over the past year.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD </span></strong></span><span>softened below 0.7000 on the Iran headlines and remains vulnerable after breaking below its 100</span>‑<span>day moving average.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDCNH</span></strong></span><span> near 6.78 was marginally firmer, reflecting still-accommodative liquidity conditions under PBOC policy. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>GBP</span></strong></span><span> is holding up, though described as “hawkish for the wrong reasons,” supported more by structural and inflation concerns than by strong growth.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude</span></strong><span> surged over 2% to near $95.20 a barrel in early Thursday trade after the US launched a second consecutive day of strikes on Iran. WTI settled around $90 on Wednesday. Iran's announcement of a Strait of Hormuz closure — subsequently refuted by US CENTCOM — added to supply disruption fears.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>fell for a third consecutive session, dropping as much as 1.2% to near $4,024 an ounce in early Thursday trade, extending Wednesday's 3.6% decline. Gold has now entered bear market territory, down more than 23% from its all-time high, as rising rate hike expectations erode the metal's appeal. ETFs have been net sellers of gold for several consecutive sessions.</span></li> <li><span>Base metals broadly declined. <strong>LME copper</strong> fell ~$99.50 to $13,515.50/ton, aluminium dropped $81.50 to $3,466/ton, and nickel fell $386 to $17,678/ton, as risk-off sentiment and demand concerns weighed on the complex. Chile's April copper output also disappointed, with Codelco production down 14% y/y and Escondida down ~22% y/y.</span> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span></p> </li> </ul> <ul> <li><strong><span>US Treasury yields</span></strong><span> bear steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 2.6bps to 4.546% and the 30-year yield up 2.9bps to 5.029%, while the 1-year yield fell 1.2bps to 3.902%. The 5s30s spread widened to 76.2bps. Yields initially dipped on the softer core CPI print before resuming their climb alongside oil prices.</span></li> <li><span>The $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction was awarded at 4.538% — the highest yield since February 2025 — with demand metrics broadly strong. Bid-to-cover came in at 2.57x, with indirect bidders taking 63.7% of the allocation, above recent averages.</span></li> <li><span>Bond traders remain fully priced for a Fed rate hike by December, with roughly 60% odds of a move as early as October. The 10-year TIPS real yield is hovering near 2.19%, just below a 12-month high, attracting inflation-wary buyers. JPMorgan has raised its year-end 10-year yield forecast to 4.70%, citing a resilient labour market and firm growth backdrop.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - The fear gauge already knows - 10 June 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">US equities dipped Tuesday as AI-sector selling and Iran-related headlines added to pre-CPI caution, with the S&P 500 off 0.3% and VIX up 5%. Today’s brief takes an educational angle: instead of a single strategy insight, we dig into what the VIX term structure - spot indices, futures curve, and SKEW - is telling us about where market fear is concentrated ahead of this morning’s CPI and next week’s FOMC.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1><span><strong>Options Brief - The fear gauge already knows - 10 June 2026</strong></span></h1> <br /> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> US equities retreated on Tuesday as AI-sector profit-taking and reports of US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities compounded caution ahead of today’s May CPI release (source: exchange data / Bloomberg, 9 June 2026). The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0% as AI-related names bore the brunt, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.2% higher on defensive rotation. See the Saxo Market Quick Take – 10 June 2026 for the full macro picture.<br /> <br /> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li> <strong>S&P 500</strong> closed at approximately 7,386, down 0.3%; </li> <li><strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> down 1.0%; </li> <li><strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> closed at 50,877, up 0.2% <br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong>VIX </strong>closed at 19.87, up 5.0%; front-month VIX futures at 20.85, up 9.7%; S&P 500 futures pre-market down 0.8%</li> <li><strong>Market regime</strong>: Neutral / Chop – VIX 19.87, 20-day realised vol 12.9% (rising), S&P 500 +3.22% above its 50-day moving average</li> <li><strong>Key event today</strong>: US May CPI at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT); consensus expects readings that may push the year-on-year print above 4% for the first time in three years; FOMC meeting follows on 17–18 June 2026<br /> (source: exchange data / Bloomberg, 9 June 2026)</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> Based on end-of-day 9 June – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.<br /> <br /> Single-name flow remained net bullish in AI and semiconductor names — led by NVDA October call demand and TSM July upside — though notable MSFT put buying and TSLA/META hedges kept the overall picture closer to selective risk-taking than broad conviction.<br /> <br /> Index and ETF flow leaned clearly defensive: consumer staples protection dominated (XLP September puts in size), broad equity index put openings outpaced calls, and metals and crypto saw meaningful downside hedging ahead of today’s CPI and next week’s FOMC.<br /> <br /> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle: the VIX term structure and what it’s telling us</strong></h2> Illustrative only — not a trade recommendation.<br /> <br /> Most traders track the VIX as a single number — the 30-day implied volatility reading for the S&P 500. But the VIX is really a curve, and right now that curve is telling a more nuanced story than the headline 19.87 suggests.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The spot index curve: event risk at the 9-day horizon</strong></h3> <br /> <em>Short-term volatility expectations remain contained, with the VIX near 20. The upward-sloping volatility curve toward six- and twelve-month horizons suggests investors expect somewhat greater uncertainty over the longer term than in the coming weeks. Source: Bloomberg</em><br /> <br /> Looking at the CBOE’s spot volatility indices as of this morning, the curve is not flat (source: Bloomberg, 10 June 2026). VIX1D sits at 20.60, but VIX9D — the 9-day tenor — jumps to 22.14, the highest point on the short end of the curve. The 30-day VIX at 20.25 dips below both, before the curve resumes its upward slope: VIX3M at 21.31, VIX6M at 22.97, and VIX1Y at the long-end high of 23.87.<br /> <br /> The hump at VIX9D is the key tell. A 9-day window measured from today (10 June) extends to approximately 19 June — fully capturing the FOMC meeting on 17–18 June. VIX9D at 22.14 sits 1.89 points above the 30-day VIX: a clean signal that the market is pricing FOMC event risk in the most relevant window rather than spreading fear more broadly. This is more information than the headline VIX alone can provide.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>The futures curve: inversion, then a kink</strong></h3> <br /> <em>The VIX futures curve remains in contango, with longer-dated contracts trading above spot volatility. This typically reflects expectations of stable market conditions in the near term while maintaining a premium for future uncertainty and event risk. Source: Bloomberg</em><br /> <br /> The VIX futures curve adds another dimension (source: Bloomberg, 10 June 2026). The June contract (UXM6) sits at 17.81 — the lowest point on the curve, trading below spot VIX. The July contract (UXN6) jumps to 20.71, a step of approximately 3.3 points. From August onwards, the curve rises steadily into contango, reaching approximately 22.35 by November.<br /> <br /> The June inversion exists for a structural reason: UXM6 expires on 18 June — the same day as the FOMC decision. The contract settles before any post-decision repricing can be captured, which explains why the market assigns it a lower risk premium. The July contract captures the full aftermath of the Fed’s statement and any subsequent market adjustment. The ~3.3-point June-to-July jump is the market’s explicit price of the post-FOMC tail risk.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>SKEW: the fear gauge’s quieter companion</strong></h3> <br /> <em>The SKEW Index remains elevated near 142 while the VIX sits around 20, suggesting investors continue to pay for downside protection even as headline volatility remains moderate. Recent SKEW spikes above 150 indicate persistent concern about low-probability market shocks. Source: Bloomberg</em><br /> <br /> The CBOE SKEW index — currently at 141.97 — measures a different kind of fear (source: Bloomberg, 10 June 2026). While VIX reflects at-the-money implied volatility, SKEW captures the relative pricing of out-of-the-money puts versus calls, measuring the implied probability of outlier S&P 500 moves. Readings above 130 are generally considered elevated.<br /> <br /> Looking at the past three months, SKEW and VIX have followed a consistent inverse pattern. In mid-March, when VIX spiked to approximately 31, SKEW pulled back as broad-based fear replaced targeted tail hedging. As VIX compressed through April, SKEW surged to its 3-month high of approximately 157 as investors rotated into cheap out-of-the-money puts. In early June, SKEW re-elevated to approximately 152 even as VIX stayed near 20, pointing to renewed FOMC-related tail hedging demand. Today’s 141.97 remains elevated relative to post-April lows, consistent with residual FOMC hedging demand.<br /> <br /> The current combination — moderate VIX near 20, elevated SKEW at 141.97 — is a classic “complacent on the base case, hedged for the shock” setup.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>What this means for options thinking (illustrative)</strong></h3> <p> <em><em><strong>Important note: </strong></em>All strategies carry significant risk; options trading can result in losses that exceed the initial premium paid.<br /> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</em><br /> <br /> The term structure offers three practical lenses:</p> <ul> <li><strong>First, event risk is already priced</strong>: VIX9D at 22.14 and the June-July futures step of approximately 3.3 points both reflect FOMC uncertainty. Strategies designed to capture the event move should account for that premium already embedded in options pricing.</li> <li><strong>Second, the June futures inversion suggests the market expects near-term vol to resolve</strong>. A benign CPI and neutral FOMC could see front-end vol compress materially — positive-theta strategies expiring around FOMC benefit in that scenario, though they carry meaningful risk if outcomes surprise.</li> <li><strong>Third, elevated SKEW at 141.97 means out-of-the-money puts are relatively expensive</strong>: hedgers using OTM puts should account for the tail-risk premium currently embedded in put skew.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> Today’s US May CPI at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT) is the first real data point in the FOMC window. The vol curve has already done the math. VIX9D elevation, the June-July futures kink, and SKEW at 141.97 all describe a market that is not complacent — it is selectively positioned for specific outcomes. The central question is whether today’s CPI and next week’s FOMC deliver results that match the priced-in scenarios, or force a repricing in one direction or the other. The fear gauge already knows something. Today we find out if it was right.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---semis-rebound-cpi-looms---9-june-2026-09062026" data-id="072AD870A1C04BEFABAD9A1FB2E81865" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Semis rebound CPI looms - 9 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---options-amplified-fridays-sell-off---8-june-2026-08062026" data-id="4782F4CCCAFE44D08FEF66B051CA4C6D" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Options amplified Fridays sell-off - 8 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---broadcom-shock-rotation-wins---5-june-2026-05062026" data-id="81DDFDAFDFB2403A83DD2DB2B35A9D63" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Broadcom shock rotation wins - 5 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-oil-swing-dow-record---28-may-2026-28052026" data-id="F4B69C48DD584E45A4C99EE42EEF1723" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran oil swing Dow record - 28 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market volatility expansion flashes red. Gold key support in view.</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 09:23:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Choppy market suggests a possible changing of the guard.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/market-volatility-expansion-flashes-red-gold-key-support-in-view/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> </p> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li> <p>Today's only link is to an excellent FT op-ed "<span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f8379b23-f029-4274-b508-5452d965ad28?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Why are we still arguing about the Industrial revolution?</em></a></span>" that complains about the attempt to use poor quality 19th century data that provides few insights on how the Industrial Revolution transformed society and the types of available jobs as we attempt to anticipate how AI will transform our current society and the job market. Instead, we should consult the best fiction writers of the time, who provide excellent qualitative documentation of the impact of the industrial revolution. </p> </li> </ul> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>The inflation test for business models</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 08:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Today’s United States inflation print </strong>may test both rate-cut hopes and equity valuations.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Inflation does not hit all companies equally</strong>. Business models matter more when costs rise.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>HALO companies may offer resilience</strong>, but valuation, debt and execution still matter.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Inflation is the market’s monthly reality check. It arrives with one number, causes many opinions, and usually leaves investors with more questions than comfort. Efficient, if not exactly charming.</span></p> <p><span>The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of consumer prices, is due on 10 June 2026. Economists expect May inflation to rise again, with Reuters reporting forecasts of headline CPI around 4.2% year-on-year and core CPI around 2.9%. Core CPI excludes food and energy, because economists enjoy removing the things people notice most.</span></p> <p><span>The timing matters. Technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks have already become more volatile. A hotter inflation print could add another test, because inflation shapes interest rates, interest rates shape valuations, and valuations shape how forgiving investors feel.</span></p> <p><span>But this article is not only about the Federal Reserve. It is about something more useful for investors: what inflation reveals about business models.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The number is loud, the details are louder</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The headline CPI number gets the attention. It is the figure that usually flashes across screens first. But the details often matter more.</span></p> <p><span>If inflation rises mainly because petrol prices jump, markets may worry about household budgets and transport costs. But central banks may treat some of that as temporary, especially if energy prices later cool. If core inflation rises, the concern becomes broader. That suggests price pressure is spreading through services, rent, wages or everyday business costs.</span></p> <p><span>This distinction matters for portfolios. A petrol shock can hurt airlines, logistics firms, retailers and lower-income consumers quickly. Sticky services inflation can hurt labour-heavy companies, because wages and operating costs are harder to reverse. Higher inflation can also keep bond yields elevated, which can pressure companies whose profits sit far in the future.</span></p> <p><span>That is why CPI is not just an economic number. It is a stress test. It asks whether the market’s favourite stories still work when money is not cheap, costs are not calm and consumers are not endlessly patient.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The HALO lens: who can live with inflation?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>CPI explains the pressure. HALO helps investors think about who may have a pressure valve.</span></p> <p><span>In this context, HALO means asset-heavy, low-obsolescence businesses. Interpreted broadly, it points to companies that own hard-to-replace assets, provide products or services with essential and long-lasting demand, and have some ability to protect cash flows when costs rise. That can include infrastructure, energy networks, railways, utilities and regulated networks, healthcare firms, waste management, and insurance companies.</span></p> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Bank in-house framework. The infographic is intended for inspiration and illustration only, and should not be read as investment advice or a recommendation.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p class="text--body"><span>The common thread is not glamour. It is durability. Customers may complain about higher prices, but they often still need electricity, logistics, medical products, insurance, software, payments or trusted everyday goods. That does not make these companies immune. It does mean some have more tools than a business selling products that consumers can easily delay, downgrade or skip.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span>Pricing power is central here. A company with pricing power can raise prices without losing too many customers. In an inflationary period, that can help defend margins, which are the profits left after costs. This is why investors often look for firms with scarce assets, trusted brands, strong distribution, regulation-backed positions or mission-critical products.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span>Still, HALO is not a golden ticket. Asset-heavy firms often carry debt and need constant investment. Railways, utilities and energy networks can face political pressure if prices rise too much. Strong brands can lose power if consumers trade down. A good business can also be a poor investment if the share price already assumes perfection. Even halos need maintenance.</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span>The point is not to crown inflation winners. It is to ask a better question: if inflation stays higher for longer, which businesses can defend cash flows, and which ones are simply hoping the weather changes?</span></p> <p class="text--body"><span>This is also the logic behind <a href="https://dclsaxo/en-sg/investmentthemes/haloshortlist" data-id="BC6053FE1BD14F93BA54E4E932112D77" data-type="InvestmentTheme">Saxo’s HALO theme list</a>, which focuses on companies with durable assets, long-lived demand and business models that may be better placed to handle inflation pressure. The list is intended for inspiration and illustration only, and should not be read as investment advice or a recommendation.<br /> </span><span ></span></p> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why markets care so much</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Federal Reserve wants inflation near 2% over time. Reuters reports that most economists now expect the Fed to keep interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for the rest of 2026, as inflation remains uncomfortable and the labour market stays resilient.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because higher rates change the maths for investors. When safer assets offer better returns, investors often demand more proof from expensive growth stocks. Promises of future profits become less powerful when today’s discount rate rises. In plain English, tomorrow’s money looks less exciting when today’s money pays more.</span></p> <p><span>This is why a CPI print can move technology, banks, energy, consumer stocks and bonds at the same time. A cooler print may ease pressure on rate-sensitive shares. A hotter print may support the view that rates stay higher for longer. A mixed print may keep the market in its least favourite place: waiting for the next data point.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is reading too much into one number. Inflation data is important, but one CPI print does not define the whole economy. The trend matters more than the monthly surprise.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is confusing pricing power with unlimited pricing freedom. Consumers can trade down. Regulators can push back. Competitors can undercut. If companies raise prices too aggressively, demand may weaken later.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is valuation. Resilient companies can still become expensive. When investors crowd into “quality” or “defensive” names, future returns can suffer if expectations become too high. Safety is useful. Overpaying for safety is less useful, like buying an umbrella after the storm and paying surge pricing.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Watch core CPI and services inflation</strong>, not only the headline number.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Track bond yields</strong>, especially after the CPI release, as they show the market’s rate expectations.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Compare companies by pricing power, debt levels and cost sensitivity</strong>, not only by sector label.</span></p> </li> <li> <p class="text--body"><span><strong>Use HALO as a checklist for resilience</strong>, not as a buy list.</span></p> </li> </ul> <h3 data-start="15" data-end="49" class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The real test is staying power</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Inflation is often presented as a macro story, but it quickly becomes a company story. A CPI print can move markets because it changes expectations for rates, margins and consumer spending. Yet for investors, the deeper lesson is simpler. Inflation tests whether a business has real staying power or just good conditions. <br /> <br /> The best companies do not need a perfect economy to function, but even strong businesses need fair valuations and disciplined execution. Today’s CPI may be noisy. The business-model test it triggers is more lasting. In inflation, as in life, the calmest firms are often those with the strongest foundations.</span></p> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> <br /> </em> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.<br /> </em></span></p> <div><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em> <div data-qa="rte-top"> <div> <p><em>The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.</em></p> </div> </div> </em></span></div> <span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em> </em></span> <p> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 10 June 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 06:32:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 10 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US and Europe slipped as AI stress spread, Asia weakened as geopolitics revived risk and Korean tech swung hard.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> CPI, VIX higher, US-Iran tensions, downside skew</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin below $62k, ETF outflows easing, defensive positioning, CPI catalyst</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Precious metals slump deepens as rate hike fears take hold; oil shrugs off renewed Middle East escalation</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US treasury yields quiet ahead of May US CPI release.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> AUD weakness continues as USD unreactive to wild volatility in US stocks. EURCHF hits new local high.</li> <li><strong>Macro:</strong> US May CPI, Bank of Canada Rate Announcement, US Treasury to auction 10-year notes</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The <strong>US launched new strikes against Iran after an American helicopter was downed</strong>, heightening concerns over a fragile ceasefire and longer-term peace prospects. Trump ordered the “self-defense” strikes, while Iran warned it would not leave any attack unanswered, saying it had targeted 21 US arial and navel targets across the region.</li> <li><strong>US existing home sales rose 3.2% to 4.17 million annualized</strong>, beating expectations despite high mortgage rates. Gains were strongest in the Midwest and South, modest in the Northeast, and flat in the West. Inventory rose 3.3% to a 10-month high, reaching 4.5 months of supply.</li> <li><strong>The US trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April from $56.6 billion</strong>, beating expectations. Exports rose 2.6% to a record $327.1 billion, led by capital goods, industrial supplies, and consumer goods, while services slipped. Imports increased 2.0% to $383.0 billion, driven by higher capital goods and service purchases.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s producer prices rose 6.3% yoy in May, up from 5.3%</strong> and above the 5.5% forecast, the fastest since March 2023 amid higher energy costs. Month-on-month, prices rose 0.9%, down from April’s revised 2.8%.</li> <li><strong>US private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 23</strong>, down from 30,500 and marking a third week of easing growth. Still, ADP’s May report showed a solid 122,000 net job gain, with hiring more broad-based and momentum intact into summer.</li> <li><strong>The combination of stronger payrolls and uncomfortably elevated inflation</strong> has led bond traders to rush into positions targeting multiple Fed interest-rate hikes in the coming months, with some looking for a move as early as the September policy meeting. Ahead of Friday’s strong payroll print hedge funds held a record net short positions in SOFR futures.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>0600 – Norway May CPI</li> <li>1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications</li> <li>1230 – US May CPI</li> <li>1345 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision</li> <li>1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year Notes</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday:</strong> Oracle</li> <li><strong>Thursday:</strong> Adobe, Dollarama</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.0%, while the Dow rose 0.2% as Wall Street recovered from deeper intraday losses. The session was another reminder that a concentrated AI trade can wobble the whole table when sentiment turns. Apple fell 3.6% after investors questioned its AI update, Tesla lost 3.0% as high-valuation growth stocks came under pressure, Microsoft dropped 2% on broader tech weakness, while Nvidia ended only 0.2% lower after a sharp intraday reversal. Financials were the bright spot, with bank shares supported by rotation into value ahead of US inflation data.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> European equities also lost ground, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.5%, the DAX off 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 falling 1.4% to its weakest close since 15 May. The UK market was hit by banks and energy, as HSBC dropped 4.4% and Standard Chartered fell 6.3%, while lower oil weighed on energy names. Telecom equipment makers also came under pressure, with Ericsson down 6.3% and Nokia off 7.0% on concerns that Nvidia could become a stronger competitor in telecom chips. Givaudan was a rare bright spot, jumping 7.5% after analyst upgrades.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities traded lower on Wednesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down around 0.6%, Japan’s Nikkei off 0.9%, and South Korea’s Kospi down about 2.0% as tech selling resumed and US-Iran tensions lifted risk aversion. The move followed Tuesday’s sharp rebound, when the Kospi surged 8.2% after Monday’s steep AI-led selloff. SK Hynix jumped 15.9% and Samsung Electronics rose 9.0% on Tuesday as investors bought back into the AI memory trade. South Korea’s authorities also inspected major foreign-exchange banks to curb destabilising trading activity, which adds another moving part to a market that already has plenty.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility moved higher ahead of today’s US CPI report</strong>, but markets have not yet reached panic levels. The <strong>VIX </strong>closed at <strong>19.87</strong> <strong>(+5.0%)</strong>, while short-term measures rose more sharply, with <strong>VIX1D </strong>at 20.60 (+28.6%) and <strong>VIX9D </strong>at 22.14 (+12.4%), highlighting investor demand for protection around today’s inflation data and renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran. With oil prices remaining elevated, markets are increasingly sensitive to inflation surprises that could reinforce expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.</li> <li><strong>SPX options imply a move of approximately 109 points, or 1.48%</strong>, into Friday’s 12 June expiration, while today’s expiration is pricing a move of roughly 63 points, or 0.85%.<strong> In other words, options markets expect a potentially meaningful reaction to today’s CPI release</strong>, making inflation the key near-term catalyst for equities, bonds and risk assets.</li> <li><strong>Daily skew indicator</strong>: downside protection remains noticeably more expensive than upside exposure. Near-term SPX puts are carrying implied volatility around 30%-31%, compared with roughly 23% for comparable calls,<strong> indicating investors remain more focused on hedging downside risks than positioning for a breakout higher.</strong> Options flow told a similar story, with significant institutional demand for SPX, SPY and QQQ protection, although sizeable call buying in NVDA and TSM suggests investors continue to maintain exposure to AI-related upside.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets traded cautiously as investors reduced risk ahead of CPI and monitored developments in the Middle East.</strong> <strong>Bitcoin </strong>hovered around <strong>$61,200</strong>, while <strong>Ethereum </strong>traded near <strong>$1,624</strong>, both remaining under pressure following last week’s sharp selloff. Major altcoins including Solana and XRP also weakened, reflecting a broader risk-off tone across speculative assets.</li> <li>Listed crypto exposure followed the same pattern.<strong> IBIT fell 2.1% to $35.14</strong>, while <strong>ETHA declined 1.9% to $12.48</strong>. Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience net outflows, redemption volumes have slowed considerably from last week's extreme levels, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be stabilising rather than accelerating.</li> <li><strong>Options activity in crypto-linked equities remained defensive.</strong> Large opening put positions appeared in MSTR, COIN and IBIT, with long-dated IBIT put buying pointing to continued demand for portfolio protection. At the same time, call buying in COIN, IBIT and several crypto miners suggests investors are positioning for volatility rather than uniformly betting on further declines.<strong> For now, crypto continues to behave like a high-beta extension of the broader equity market, leaving today’s CPI report as the most important near-term catalyst</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>A slump in precious metals gathered momentum on Tuesday</strong>, with <strong>gold and silver falling</strong> below USD 4,200 and USD 64, respectively, as rising US inflation concerns and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes continued to pressure sentiment. The move is forcing investors with long-held bullish positions to reassess the outlook, particularly as higher inflation and tighter monetary policy create a less supportive environment for non-yielding assets. In gold, attention now turns to the March low and 38.2% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally in the USD 4,075 to USD 4,100 area. </li> <li><strong>Silver once again led the weakness</strong>, driving the<strong> gold-silver ratio </strong>to a two-month high of 65.5 and highlighting a broader deterioration across the precious metals complex. Bond and short-term interest rate traders continue to add positions targeting multiple Fed rate hikes in the coming months, with some now pricing the possibility of a move as early as September. Attention today turns to the US CPI report, where headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% for the first time in three years.</li> <li><strong>Brent crude only trades slightly higher after sliding to USD 90 per barrel in the previous session</strong>. Traders appear increasingly reluctant to chase prices higher despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, mindful that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a temporary flood of crude oil and fuel exports. The prospect of a sudden release of pent-up supply has tempered bullish sentiment and reduced the market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. </li> <li><strong>The latest modest rebound was triggered by renewed US and Iranian attacks that once again challenged an already fragile ceasefire. </strong>Meanwhile, US crude inventories reportedly recorded their largest decline since September according to the API ahead of today's official EIA report. The market will scrutinize the data for signs that the United States is nearing the limits of its ability to offset global supply disruptions through elevated exports of crude oil and refined products.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rebounded</strong> early Wednesday after a Tuesday dip and ahead of today’s US May CPI data. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield traded 4.14% after a low just below 4.12% Tuesday and relative to the Monday cycle high since early 2025 just shy of 4.20. Demand for 3-year notes at Tuesday’s auction improved after a weak prior auction that saw the weakest demand in nine months. The benchmark 10-year yield traded just below 4.54% early Wednesday, up two basis points from Tuesday’s close and ahead of today’s auction of 10-year treasury notes.</li> <li><strong>Wobbly risk sentiment in equity markets finally showed up in the US high yield bond market</strong>, as the Bloomberg measure we track of the high yield bond spread to US treasuries widened ten basis points to 273 basis points, the largest single day widening since March in the first weeks of the Iran war.</li> <li><strong>Ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and nearly universal expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike</strong>, Eurozone government bond rates are little changed, with the benchmark 2-year German Schatz closing down almost four basis points at 2.67% Tuesday, near the middle of the range of the last several weeks. The market will look for guidance for additional hikes later this year, with just over one and half additional hikes priced into forward expectations.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar tracked wobbly risk sentiment with a negative correlation Tuesday with very little energy ahead of Wednesday’s US May CPI release</strong>. <strong>EURUSD </strong>found resistance in the 1.1575 area Tuesday before dropping back below 1.1540 and then rebounding above 1.1550 early Wednesday. <strong>USDJPY </strong>continues to test Japan’s Ministry of Finance intent to prevent JPY weakening as it dribbled to new local highs above the 160.00 level, hitting a new high of 160.45 before easing back.</li> <li><strong>EURCHF hit a new local high since late April</strong>, trading as high as 0.9229 and perhaps taking its lead from the tumbling gold price, which posted its lowest daily close of 2026 on Tuesday and fell further early Wednesday. </li> <li><strong>USDCAD trades near the top of its trading range</strong> of the last several months near 1.3950 ahead of today’s Bank of Canada, with no expectation that the BoC will express any urgency for moving the current 2.25% policy rate.</li> <li><strong>The Australian dollar remained weak and AUDUSD fell almost all the way to 0.7000 on Tuesday</strong>, posting a 0.7005 low after falling from an intrasession high above 0.7050. Weaker risk sentiment has also weighed on industrial metals prices this week in addition to prior falls in prices. Precious metals prices also traded weaker. <strong>AUDNZD </strong>hit a seven-trading day low below 1.2065 early Wednesday. Forward expectations for further RBA hikes hit a new low Wednesday, with odds for any additional policy tightening this year dropping below 66%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>What investors misunderstand about covered calls</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Most investors think of covered calls as an income strategy. That’s understandable, the premium is immediate and visible. But for many long-term investors, the more valuable part of the trade is what the strike price actually does: it turns a vague exit intention into a specific commitment. Deciding when to sell is one of the hardest problems in investing. Most investors never build a structured plan for it. Covered calls can help ...</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>What investors misunderstand about covered calls</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A decision framework for long-term investors. <br /> <br /> </em><span >Imagine owning a stock that has been one of your better investments. </span><span >A year ago, it traded at EUR 100. Today it reaches EUR 120. <br /> <br /> </span><span >You tell yourself: </span><em >“If it gets much higher, I’ll probably take some profits.”</em></p> <p>A few weeks later, the stock trades at EUR 125. Then EUR 130. Now selling feels much harder than it did at EUR 120. What if it keeps going?</p> <p>So you hold on.</p> <p>A quarter later, the company disappoints investors. Earnings miss expectations, guidance is lowered, and the share price falls back to EUR 100.</p> <p>Suddenly the conversation in your head changes. <span >Instead of wondering whether you should have sold at EUR 130, you’re wondering why you didn’t. </span><span >If this sounds familiar, you’re not alone.</span></p> <p>Most investors spend years learning how to buy stocks. Far fewer spend time thinking about how they will eventually sell them. <span >Yet selling is often one of the hardest decisions in investing.</span></p> <p>Ironically, this is one of the reasons covered calls can be useful.</p> <p>Most investors think covered calls are primarily about generating income. While the premium can certainly be attractive, that may not be their most valuable feature. <span >For many long-term investors, covered calls can help solve a much more difficult problem: deciding when enough profit is enough.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it is crucial to make informed decisions.</span></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Why selling is so difficult</strong></h2> <p>Buying a stock is usually based on a thesis. You believe earnings will grow. You expect a new product launch to succeed. You think the market is undervaluing the company.</p> <p>Selling is different. There is rarely a clear signal telling you that now is the perfect time to exit.</p> <p>Sell too early and the shares may continue higher. Sell too late and years of gains can disappear surprisingly quickly.</p> <p>As a result, many investors do what feels safest. They postpone the decision.</p> <p>Unfortunately, postponing a decision is still a decision.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Most investors already use covered-call thinking</strong></h2> <p>Even investors who have never traded an option often think in terms of future selling prices.</p> <p>Perhaps you’ve said:</p> <ul> <li>“I’d probably sell if it reaches EUR 120.”</li> <li>“If the stock doubles, I’d take some profits.”</li> <li>“I’d be happy to exit around that level.”</li> </ul> <p>These are all examples of target prices.</p> <p>The challenge is that target prices often look sensible when a stock is trading at EUR 100. They become much harder to follow when the stock is actually trading at EUR 120. That is where emotions begin to compete with discipline.</p> <p>A covered call can help bridge that gap.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Turning a target price into a plan</strong></h2> <p>A covered call combines two elements:</p> <ul> <li>Ownership of at least 100 shares</li> <li>The sale of a call option against those shares</li> </ul> <p>In exchange for receiving a premium, the investor agrees to sell the shares at a specific price, known as the strike price, if the option is exercised.</p> <p>Many investors focus immediately on the premium. However, the strike price is often the more important part of the decision.</p> <p>Suppose you own 100 shares trading at EUR 50. You decide that EUR 55 would be an attractive level to sell. You then sell a covered call with:</p> <ul> <li>Strike price: EUR 55</li> <li>Premium received: EUR 1 per share</li> <li>Total premium received: EUR 100</li> </ul> <p>At that moment, you have done something many investors struggle to do. You have created a plan.</p> <p>Rather than saying: <em>“Maybe I’ll sell if the shares go higher.”</em></p> <p>You have said: <em>“I am comfortable selling at EUR 55, and I will be paid EUR 100 today for making that commitment.”</em></p> <p>That is a very different mindset.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>The premium is still important</strong></h2> <p>None of this means the premium should be ignored. The premium is a real benefit of the strategy.</p> <ul> <li>If the shares remain below the strike price until expiry, the option may expire worthless. In that scenario, the investor keeps both the shares and the premium received.</li> <li>If the shares fall modestly, the premium can help offset part of the decline.</li> <li>If the shares rise above the strike price, the investor may sell at the predetermined level and still keeps the premium.</li> </ul> <p>The premium improves all three potential outcomes.</p> <p>But it is often the structure, rather than the income, that creates the greatest value.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>What about missing further gains?</strong></h2> <p>This is often the biggest concern. Suppose the shares rise from EUR 55 to EUR 65 after the covered call is sold. Many investors immediately focus on the EUR 10 they “missed”.</p> <p>That reaction is understandable. However, it overlooks an important fact. The investor selected EUR 55 as an attractive selling price before entering the trade. The original objective was achieved.</p> <p>The real danger for many investors is not missing some upside after taking profits. It is never taking profits at all.</p> <p>A covered call does not eliminate regret. No investment strategy can do that. What it can do is replace an emotional decision with a structured one.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>When covered calls may make sense</strong></h2> <p>Covered calls are often most suitable when an investor:</p> <ul> <li>Already owns at least 100 shares</li> <li>Has a price in mind where selling would be acceptable</li> <li>Wants to generate additional income while holding the shares</li> <li>Is moderately positive, rather than extremely bullish, on the stock</li> <li>Prefers a structured approach to profit-taking</li> </ul> <p>They are not necessarily about maximising returns. They are often about improving discipline.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>A different way to think about covered calls</strong></h2> <p>The biggest misunderstanding about covered calls may not involve options at all. <span >Many investors see them as income strategies. In reality, they can also be decision-making strategies. </span><span >The premium attracts attention because it is visible and immediate. The strike price receives less attention, even though it may be the more important choice.</span></p> <p>For long-term investors, a covered call can help transform a vague future intention into a clear plan.</p> <p>The income is valuable. The clarity may be even more valuable.<br /> <br /> <br /> <em>Covered calls are often viewed as income strategies, but they can also help investors create a structured plan for taking profits. This framework highlights the key questions to consider before deciding whether a covered call fits your investment objectives. Source: Saxo</em></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <em> This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> <br /> </em> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th > Educational Resources </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul > <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/position-management-for-covered-calls-and-cash-secured-puts-18122025" data-id="CDF08F4982B94F9C90D838E76FDAE3B6" data-type="Article">Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="#" data-id="C56829954B544FC6B1CCF8E3E01AAA17" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the covered call option strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="A151C0147D904D0EB837912D2ED6CEBA" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the poor mans covered call</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="6D9B23B4FAD44895A69854A74149291A" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the option collar strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="C56829954B544FC6B1CCF8E3E01AAA17" data-type="EvergreenArticle"></a><a href="#" data-id="D8A3606FE99049A6809BEC2CFD67AAF7" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the naked put option strategy</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="6C562A40F7D14D89BEF8958DFF3B29E5" data-type="EvergreenArticle">How put options work</a></li> <li><a href="#" data-id="7EF98066A9E34CFAAFACD007604E04EC" data-type="EvergreenArticle">Understanding the protective put option strategy</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="#" data-id="46F9B7C11C8C427993127C6988516E62" data-type="Article">Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management</a></li> <li> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---01---what-every-options-trader-and-investor-should-know-04072025" data-id="F83BAEE96DEB48FBB3F217498E68D95F" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---02---how-to-avoid-assignment-04072025" data-id="36D86BBE4E094B209A5940273B7E5D8D" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---03---how-to-use-option-assignment-to-your-advantage-04072025" data-id="D952B245169B42DABC33C6CFDBF756F5" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/assignment-explained---04---option-assignment-cheat-sheet-04072025" data-id="1D4CD745132B42C88A359DE58F7E8A0C" data-type="Article">Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/covered-call-or-cash-secured-put-02062026" data-id="9632B5C9CE2649BF9B6628167231164E" data-type="Article">Covered call or cash-secured put</a> | 2 Jun 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/from-shareholder-to-options-user-26052026" data-id="15A45402BFB347CB98CDFDF575A79F89" data-type="Article">From shareholder to options user</a> | 26 May 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/micron-before-earnings---using-a-covered-call-after-a-strong-rally-29052026" data-id="E0792F25BE914D2785D0994013073093" data-type="Article">Micron before earnings - using a covered call after a strong rally</a> | 29 May 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/alphabet-after-earnings---how-a-covered-call-can-help-investors-manage-a-strong-rally-30042026" data-id="75A7962C3F3D4C729B356F6EDCF78E7E" data-type="Article">Alphabet after earnings - how a covered call can help investors manage a strong rally</a> | 30 Apr 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/tesla-shares-after-earnings--could-a-covered-call-make-sense-27042026" data-id="F5FF792D68A54BB9BDE2F28C06D04569" data-type="Article">Tesla shares after earnings could a covered call make sense</a> | 27 Apr 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/a-structured-way-to-buy-iwda-at-a-lower-price-using-options-20032026" data-id="43EACFF911734ACF9BDD50AEB6B62976" data-type="Article">A structured way to buy IWDA at a lower price using options</a> | 20 Mar 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/how-to-improve-the-yield-on-a-long-term-iwda-holdings-12032026" data-id="3583AC754486457DA50C23A59976B120" data-type="Article">How to improve the yield on a long-term IWDA holdings</a> | 12 Mar 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/how-to-use-a-collar-to-protect-stock-gains---a-tesla-case-study-20022026" data-id="D702693516F04E15ABB52A0CFFD249DB" data-type="Article">How to use a collar to protect stock gains - a Tesla case study</a> | 20 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/palantir-after-earnings---using-options-to-define-a-potential-entry-price-04022026" data-id="36B07866752A45EE84DFB7849A6FB590" data-type="Article">Palantir after earnings - using options to define a potential entry price</a> | 4 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/golds-pullback---thinking-beyond-buy-or-sell-03022026" data-id="BA22616AE233495DB2AD7A0CAAAAECF2" data-type="Article">Golds pullback - thinking beyond buy or sell</a> | 3 Feb 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/why-options-got-so-popular-in-recent-years-28012026" data-id="2253492BA6004B42866EE5293925FCB5" data-type="Article">Why options got so popular in recent years</a> | 28 Jan 2026<br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <hr /> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>Income and yield</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Investor Q&A: Is the AI selloff a reset or a warning shot?</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 05:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <p><strong><span>1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break</span></strong><span>: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an earnings collapse. The bull-market structure is not broken, but the easy rerating phase of AI is likely over.</span></p> <p><strong><span>2. AI has moved from storytelling to proof: </span></strong><span>Valuations have risen sharply, positioning is crowded, and “good” earnings may no longer be enough. The next phase needs evidence of real AI monetisation, capex discipline, funding sustainability, margin resilience and returns on infrastructure spend.</span></p> <p><strong><span>3. Stay invested, but diversify and be more selective: </span></strong><span>This is not a market to abandon risk, but investors should reduce concentration in crowded AI winners, prefer quality companies with visible earnings and free cash flow, and keep diversification through defensives, real assets and inflation-sensitive exposures as Fed, oil and geopolitics remain key risks.<br /> <br /> <hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>1. What really caused the selloff?</strong></h2> <p><span>It was not just one data point or one headline.</span></p> <p><span>The jobs report may have been the spark, but the market was already vulnerable. It had become overbought, top-heavy and crowded around one dominant theme: AI.</span></p> <p><span>Several things came together at once.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AI crowding:</span></strong><span> Semis and AI-linked names had become the default long trade. When everyone owns the same winners, even a small disappointment can trigger a much bigger unwind.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Top-heavy leadership:</span></strong><span> A small group of AI winners had been carrying the broader index. That makes the market look stronger than it really is on the way up, but more fragile on the way down.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Valuations priced for perfection:</span></strong><span> The SOX index was around 18x forward earnings at the end of March and is now closer to 30x. That is a huge rerating in a short period. The easy part of the rally was multiple expansion. From here, earnings need to do more of the heavy lifting.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Expectations are harder to beat:</span></strong><span> The Broadcom example was important because it showed that “good” is no longer good enough for AI-linked names. Investors want upside surprises, stronger guidance, clear monetisation and evidence that AI demand is still accelerating.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AI funding questions:</span></strong><span> The market is also starting to ask who funds the next leg of AI infrastructure. Alphabet’s funding moves, and now Meta’s, are reminders that AI is not just a growth story. It is also a very capital-intensive one. Investors are becoming more focused on financing needs, capex discipline, dilution risk and return on investment.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Fed repricing:</span></strong><span> Stronger US data makes the Fed put look further away. That matters when valuations are stretched. Higher-for-longer rates put pressure on long-duration growth stocks, and AI has become one of the market’s biggest long-duration trades.</span></p> <div> <p><strong><span>Geopolitics:</span></strong><span> Middle East risks, oil volatility and fading hopes of a quick de-escalation add another layer of uncertainty. Geopolitics may not be the main driver of the AI unwind, but it makes investors less willing to look through bad news — or even merely “less good” news.<br /> </span></p> </div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>2. Is this tech selloff the start of a broader bear market?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This looks more like a correction within a bull market than the start of a broad bear-market shift. The selloff has been painful, but it does not yet have the classic ingredients of a deeper breakdown: recession stress, disorderly yields, oil spiralling towards extreme levels, or a broad earnings collapse.</span></p> <p><span>The pain is also not uniform. If this were full-blown risk-off, everything would be getting sold. Instead, the pressure is still concentrated in the crowded AI and tech winners, while defensives, value areas and laggards are still finding buyers. Read here on how <a href="https://social.saxo/a0fh9hz?uuid=to7Ykc1">boring sectors are coming to the rescue as AI questions get harder</a>. </span></p> <p><span>That matters. It suggests this is still a positioning and valuation reset, not yet a regime break.<br /> </span></p> <div ><span> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>3. Is the AI bubble bursting?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>A bubble bursts when the core demand story collapses. That is not what we are seeing. What we are seeing is a valuation and expectations reset.</span></p> <p><span>AI demand, capex and earnings momentum are still strong in many areas. But the technical backdrop has become far less supportive. The trade is crowded, valuations are higher, and investors now need more proof.</span></p> <p><span>The bar has gone up. We have moved from the rerating phase to the proof phase.</span></p> <p><span>That means AI can still be a long-term structural opportunity, but it is unlikely to be a straight line up from here.<br /> </span></p> <div ><span> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>4. Where does the AI theme go from here, and what risks should investors watch?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>AI is likely to remain a long-term structural theme, but the next phase will probably look very different from the first one.</span></p> <p><span>The first phase was about excitement, scarcity and rerating. Investors rewarded almost anything linked to chips, data centres, cloud, memory, networking and AI infrastructure. That phase was powerful, but it also pulled forward a lot of future returns.</span></p> <p><span>The next phase needs more proof.</span></p> <p><span>The market will increasingly separate companies with real AI monetisation from those simply carrying an AI label. Investors will want to see AI showing up in cloud usage, software pricing, chip orders, backlog, margins, customer adoption and guidance.</span></p> <p><span>The key question from here is not whether AI is real. It is whether the earnings, cash flows and returns on capex can justify the valuation base.</span></p> <p><span>There are several risks investors need to track.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Token pricing pressure:</span></strong><span> This is becoming one of the most important risks to the AI boom. The debate is no longer just about how powerful models are, but how cheaply they can deliver answers. If more software calls are routed to cheaper models, especially Chinese models, the pricing power of US hyperscalers and AI labs could come under pressure.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because large AI capex plans are being justified by the assumption that token demand will keep rising and that pricing will support strong returns. But if token prices hit a ceiling, or if enterprise customers push back on AI costs, the revenue model becomes more complicated.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Energy cost pressure: </span></strong><span>AI is not just a compute story. It is also an energy story. Training and inference require large amounts of power, while data centres also need cooling, grid access and reliable electricity supply. If energy prices rise because of Middle East tensions, or if power availability becomes constrained, the cost base for AI infrastructure could move higher.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because investors are already questioning whether AI capex can generate strong enough returns. Higher energy costs would make that hurdle harder to clear, especially for hyperscalers, data-centre operators and AI infrastructure providers that cannot pass those costs on.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Capex discipline: </span></strong><span>AI infrastructure spending is enormous. Investors will increasingly ask whether hyperscalers and AI companies can show returns on that spending. If capex keeps rising faster than revenue, margins and free cash flow could come under pressure.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Overcapacity risk: </span></strong><span>If too much compute, data-centre or memory capacity is built ahead of real demand, the market could shift from scarcity pricing to excess supply. That would be a problem for parts of the AI hardware chain.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Funding and dilution risk: </span></strong><span>AI is capital-intensive. If companies need to issue debt or equity to fund infrastructure, investors may become more focused on balance-sheet risk, dilution and the cost of capital.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings concentration risk: </span></strong><span>If only a handful of companies capture most of the AI profits, the broader AI basket may struggle even if the theme remains structurally strong.</span></p> <p><span>So the risk is not “AI is over.” The risk is that AI remains real, but earnings expectations are too high, margins are less clean, and the return on capex takes longer to prove.</span></p> <p><span>That is why we have moved from the rerating phase to the proof phase. AI can still work, but leadership is likely to become more selective and more volatile.<br /> </span></p> <div ><span> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>5. Is this a buy-the-dip moment?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>This is not the kind of selloff where investors should blindly chase every AI-linked stock that has fallen. The market is becoming more selective, and that is healthy.</span></p> <p><span>The better opportunity may be in quality AI names that have corrected but still have strong earnings visibility, balance-sheet strength, pricing power, free cash flow and a clear monetisation path.</span></p> <p><span>A broad “buy the dip” approach can be risky when valuations are still elevated, earnings expectations are high, and many investors are crowded into the same AI winners. The better approach is to screen for companies where the price has reset, but the business case has not broken. </span></p> <p><span>This is also the reason for using a more structured framework for corrected AI stocks — looking at business quality, AI monetisation, valuation improvement and the scale of the correction. That is the focus of the “<a href="https://social.saxo/su0c1tf?uuid=to7Ykc1">corrected quality AI stocks screener</a>” article.</span></p> <div ><span><br /> </span></div> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>6. What should investors watch next?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>The most important signals are:</span></p> <p><strong><span>US data:</span></strong><span> A hot inflation print would make it harder for the Fed to sound relaxed. After the strong jobs report, markets are more sensitive to any upside surprise.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Bond yields:</span></strong><span> Yields are higher, but not yet breaking. If they become disorderly, the pressure on long-duration growth stocks will increase.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Oil:</span></strong><span> Oil around current elevated levels is uncomfortable, but not yet a full macro shock. The bigger risk is if markets start pricing a sustained supply disruption.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AI earnings guidance:</span></strong><span> Good may not be good enough. Investors want proof that AI demand is accelerating and monetisation is real.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Market breadth:</span></strong><span> The key test is whether rotation can keep working. If money keeps moving into equal-weight, staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate and other laggards, the market can absorb the AI reset. If AI selling starts dragging everything else down, correction risk becomes more serious.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span>7. Is the market fully pricing in geopolitical risk?</span></strong></h2> <p><span>Geopolitics is getting worse, not better, and markets are still underpricing the tail risk.</span></p> <p><span>For now, markets are treating the Middle East as a volatility event, not a macro shock. Oil holding below extreme levels despite fresh Iran headlines suggests investors are not yet pricing a sustained supply disruption.</span></p> <p><span>That can change quickly.</span></p> <p><span>The transmission channel is through oil, inflation expectations, shipping routes and broader risk sentiment. If energy infrastructure, shipping routes or the Strait of Hormuz come back into focus, markets may need to reprice much more aggressively.</span></p> <p><span>The key point: geopolitics is not the main driver of the AI selloff, but it reduces the market’s ability to absorb other shocks.</span></p> <strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> </strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>8. Is the Fed likely to hike rates this year?</strong></h2> <p><span>The Fed hike debate is back because the US economy is still resilient, the labour market surprised on the upside, oil is higher, and inflation risks have not disappeared.</span></p> <p><span>Markets are now pricing the risk of one Fed rate hike this year, but that still looks unlikely in our view unless inflation broadens beyond energy.</span></p> <p><span>The Fed can cool demand, but it cannot produce more oil, reopen shipping routes or reduce geopolitical risk. So hiking aggressively into a pure supply shock can be dangerous.</span></p> <p><span>That said, the Fed cannot ignore second-round inflation effects. If higher oil starts feeding into broader prices, inflation expectations and wage-setting, then the policy debate becomes more complicated.</span></p> <p><span>So the Fed message is nuanced: the market may be right to reintroduce hike risk, but a hike is still a high bar. The Fed would probably need evidence that the oil shock is becoming a broader inflation problem, not just a temporary supply-side shock.</span></p> <strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> </strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>9. Why is gold falling in a geopolitical shock?</strong></h2> <p><span>Gold has stopped behaving like a clean safe haven, and that is an important signal.</span></p> <p><span>The latest correction has pushed gold below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. That is a meaningful technical setback for a market that has spent much of the past four years in a powerful uptrend.</span></p> <p><span>The issue is that gold is currently being hurt by the wrong kind of geopolitical risk.</span></p> <p><span>Normally, gold performs best when geopolitical stress comes with falling growth expectations, lower real yields, a weaker dollar and expectations of central bank easing. This time, the risk is more energy-driven. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation concerns, supporting bond yields and keeping the dollar firm. That raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.</span></p> <p><span>There are several near-term risks to watch.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Higher real yields and a stronger dollar:</span></strong><span> This remains the biggest headwind. If inflation stays sticky and markets keep pricing Fed hike risk, gold may struggle to attract fresh investment demand.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Technical selling below the 200-day moving average: </span></strong><span>The break below the 200-day average matters because many systematic funds, momentum traders and risk-managed strategies use it as a trend filter. A sustained break can trigger position reductions and discourage fresh buying.</span></p> <p><strong><span>ETF outflows and weaker investment demand: </span></strong><span>If gold ETFs continue to see outflows, it suggests investors are reducing portfolio hedges rather than adding them. Without renewed investment demand, rallies may struggle to hold.</span></p> <p><strong><span>EM central bank selling risk: </span></strong><span>Some emerging-market central banks may choose to sell part of their gold reserves to support currencies, provide dollar liquidity or smooth market stress. This would not necessarily change the long-term central bank diversification story, but it could add tactical supply into a weak market.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Margin and liquidity pressure: </span></strong><span>When volatility rises and investors need to raise cash, even strong long-term assets can be sold. Gold can become a source of liquidity, especially after a large multi-year rally.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span>For the downside pressure to ease, gold needs two things.</span></p> <p><span>First, <strong>inflation concerns need to cool</strong>. That could come through a Middle East peace deal, softer US activity data, lower energy prices or clearer evidence that the Fed does not need to lean more hawkish.</span></p> <p><span>Second, <strong>gold needs to regain momentum</strong>. A move back above USD 4,500 would be the first important sign of stabilisation, followed by a recovery above the 50-day moving average near USD 4,600.</span></p> <p><span>Until then, traders may stay focused on downside risks, while longer-term investors may wait for a catalyst that shifts attention back to gold’s structural supports: central bank reserve diversification, fiscal debt concerns, currency debasement risks and a more fragmented geopolitical order.</span></p> <p><span>So the answer is: gold can still fall further in the short term, especially if yields and the dollar stay supported. But the bigger bull-market structure is not necessarily broken.</span></p> <strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"></h2> </strong> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>10. How should investors position in this environment?</strong></h2> <p><span>This is not a market to abandon risk. But it is a market to be more selective.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Stay invested, but reduce concentration risk: </span></strong><span>AI can still work, but portfolios should not depend on one crowded theme.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Prefer quality AI over expensive AI: </span></strong><span>Look for strong balance sheets, real revenue, free cash flow, pricing power and visible AI monetisation.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Diversify beyond AI: </span></strong><span>Staples, healthcare, utilities, banks, real estate and dividend compounders can matter when high-growth leadership stumbles. This is exactly the point of the “<a href="https://social.saxo/a0fh9hz?uuid=Paq3xDr">Boring Saved the Day</a>” article: diversification still matters most when the market’s favourite trade starts to wobble.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Keep some <a href="https://social.saxo/lxarz8u?uuid=Paq3xDr">inflation hedges</a>: </span></strong><span>Energy exposure and selective real assets may still have a role if geopolitical risks remain elevated. Gold can still be part of the toolkit, but it is not currently acting as a perfect hedge.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Use volatility more deliberately: </span></strong><span>For long-term investors, staggered buying may make more sense than chasing one-day rebounds. For active investors, rotation and breadth matter. For traders, risk management matters more than conviction because CPI, oil headlines, Fed repricing and AI earnings can all move markets quickly.</span></p> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 10 June, 2026</h1> <p>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US strikes Iran after US helicopter was downed</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Nasdaq 100 recovered, closing lower by 1.1% after falling as much as 4.4%</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Dollar stays firm, with US CPI-driven positioning guiding next move</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>WTI crude slid as much as 5.9%; gold extended losses, down up to 2.2% </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>USTs rallied; the gilt curve bull</span>‑<span>steepened</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span></span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US launched new strikes against Iran after an American helicopter was downed</strong>, heightening concerns over a fragile ceasefire and longer-term peace prospects. Trump ordered the “self-defense” strikes, while Iran warned it would not leave any attack unanswered.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US existing home sales rose 3.2% to 4.17 million annualized</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations despite high mortgage rates. Gains were strongest in the Midwest and South, modest in the Northeast, and flat in the West. Inventory rose 3.3% to a 10</span>‑<span>month high, reaching 4.5 months of supply.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April from $56.6 billion</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations. Exports rose 2.6% to a record $327.1 billion, led by capital goods, industrial supplies, and consumer goods, while services slipped. Imports increased 2.0% to $383.0 billion, driven by higher capital goods and service purchases.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s producer prices rose 6.3% yoy in May, up from 5.3%</span></strong></span><span> and above the 5.5% forecast, the fastest since March 2023 amid higher energy costs. Month-on-month, prices rose 0.9%, down from April’s revised 2.8%.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US wholesale inventories rose 0.6% m/m in April to $940.3 billion</span></strong></span><span>, slightly above forecasts and marking a third straight gain, while the inventory-to-sales ratio held at 1.19.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 23</span></strong></span><span>, down from 30,500 and marking a third week of easing growth. Still, ADP’s May report showed a solid 122,000 net job gain, with hiring more broad-based and momentum intact into summer.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> US equities saw violent intraday swings on Tuesday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, recovering from a 2.3% intraday low, while the Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.1% after briefly falling over 4%. Chipmakers led the selloff — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped sharply — with Apple -3.7%, Tesla -4.2%, Nvidia -3.4%, and Microsoft -2.4% among the notable decliners. Financials outperformed, with the KBW Bank Index hitting a record high. After hours, Cracker Barrel surged 12% on a raised revenue outlook, while Casey's General Stores rose 2.3% on a revenue beat.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities reversed early gains to close lower on Tuesday. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.5%, the DAX dropped 0.7% to 24,433, and the FTSE 100 declined 1.4% to 10,227, its biggest single-day drop since 15 May. HSBC fell 4.4% and Standard Chartered dropped 6.3%, weighing heavily on the FTSE. Ericsson and Nokia tumbled 6.3% and 7.0% respectively on reports of potential competition from Nvidia in telecom chips. The CAC 40 was broadly flat (+0.05%) and the SMI edged up 0.3%, with Givaudan surging 7.5% after upgrades from Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets are trading lower this morning (Wednesday) as tech selling resumed and US retaliatory strikes on Iran escalated geopolitical risk. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 0.5%, the Kospi has fallen 1.7%, and the Nikkei is also declining.<strong> This follows a strong Tuesday session: the Kospi surged 8.2% to 8,096.93 </strong>— its fifth-largest single-day gain on record — <strong>as SK Hynix (+15.9%) and Samsung Electronics rebounded sharply from Monday's 8.3% rout. </strong>The Nikkei rose 2.2% on Tuesday. The STI gained 1.2% to 5,023.25 on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes of a US-Iran deal. Hang Seng edged lower on Tuesday even as broader Asia recovered. South Korea's central bank and financial regulator have launched joint inspections of major FX banks today, the first such action in 14 years, to detect destabilising trading activity.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Wednesday: <strong>Oracle</strong>, Core & Main, Chewy, Navan, Pennon Group</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Chow Tai Fook, Adobe, Halma, Lennar, LPP, Do & Co</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>USD</span></strong></span><span> is firm but not broadly surging, with markets positioning around the upcoming US CPI, which is the main driver for the next USD move.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> trading near 160.39 in Asia, just below Tuesday’s 160.45 high and close to its weakest yen levels since April, keeping intervention risks in view. Strong May PPI and today’s 30-year JGB auction may pressure the BOJ to hint at faster hikes. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong></span><span> closed at 1.1543, slightly higher but still well below its 52-week high and down month-to-date. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> is near a six-week low, with the Aussie under pressure as a risk proxy after US strikes on Iran hurt sentiment at the Asia open.</span></li> <li><strong>USDCAD</strong> slipped to 1.3949 as the dollar fell 0.05% and broke a four-day winning streak.</li> <li><strong>USDCNH</strong> and <strong>USDCNY</strong> both edged lower as the PBOC set a stronger yuan fixing and <strong>USDCNH</strong> volatility ticked up. </li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>WTI crude</span></strong><span> fell as much as 5.9%, closing down 3.4% to below $90/bbl, as Israel and Iran agreed to halt strikes and Trump signalled progress on peace talks. However, oil edged higher in early Asian trading Wednesday after US retaliatory strikes on Iran threatened to derail negotiations. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that a return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic will take many months.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold</span></strong><span> extended declines, falling as much as 2.2%, as the uptick in Middle East tensions refocused attention on prolonged energy-market tightness and higher-for-longer interest rates. Gold has now broken below its short- and long-term moving averages, including the key 200-day moving average, opening the door for further technical losses.</span></li> <li><span>LME 3-month <strong>copper</strong> closed lower at $13,615/ton on Tuesday, with nickel also declining to $18,064/ton. Speculative net-long copper positions fell to a three-week low in the week ending 5 June, reflecting reduced bullish conviction amid geopolitical uncertainty.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Treasuries </span></strong><span>rallied, with yields falling 3–4bps across the curve, largely tracking the decline in oil prices. The 10-year yield closed around 4.53% and the 30-year at 5.01%. The move came despite a soft $58 billion 3-year note auction, which stopped 0.3bps above the when-issued yield at 4.192% — the highest auction result since February 2025.</span></li> <li><span>The 2-year Treasury yield remains elevated at approximately 4.15%, well above the Fed's current policy band of 3.50%–3.75%, signalling that the market is pricing in at least one rate hike. Bond options markets show traders increasingly positioning for multiple Fed hikes, with some targeting a move as early as September. JPMorgan has raised its 10-year yield year-end forecast to 4.70%.</span></li> <li><span>In Europe, <strong>gilts </strong>bull-steepened and bunds twist-steepened as energy prices fell on optimism around a potential US-Iran deal. Swaps now imply 45bps of BOE hikes this year, down from 51bps previously, while ECB hike expectations were pared modestly beyond June, with markets pricing approximately 67bps of tightening by year-end.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Semis rebound, CPI looms - 9 June 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Intel surged 11.2%, Micron 9.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 5.6% on Monday, a sharp rebound partly driven by Iran-Israel ceasefire progress. But here is what the options market is saying: despite the price recovery, the tape stayed defensive. VIX dropped to 18.92, yet the nine-day VIX9D at 19.69 still exceeds spot, pointing directly at Wednesday's CPI and the June FOMC.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1><span><strong>Options Brief - Semis rebound, CPI looms - 9 June 2026</strong></span></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> Iran-Israel ceasefire progress triggered a sharp semiconductor rebound on Monday, with Intel surging 11.2%, Micron up 9.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 5.6%, partly reversing Friday's AI-driven selloff. See the <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---9-june-2026-09062026" target="_blank" data-id="893975BFEE4B402A807611CED2C3661D" data-type="Article">Market Quick Take - 9 June 2026</a> for the full macro picture.<br /> <br /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><hr /> Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li>S&P 500 closed at 7,405.73, up 0.3%; Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,414.26, up 1.6%; Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,791.07, down 0.2%; Russell 2000 rose 0.8%</li> <li>VIX closed at 18.92, down from 21.51 on Friday; short-dated VIX1D at 16.02; nine-day VIX9D at 19.69</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Neutral / Chop – VIX 18.3, 20-day realised vol 12.9% (increasing), S&P 500 +3.22% above its 50-day moving average</li> <li>Semiconductors led the session; Apple fell 1.9% after its AI event underwhelmed; Wednesday's May CPI release is the next key market test</li> </ul> <p><em></em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> Based on end-of-day 8 June – yesterday's positioning, not today's price action.<br /> <br /> <p>Single-name flow leaned bullish in AI and software heavyweights, with concentrated upside call demand across the sector, though a hedge layer in consumer tech names kept the overall read closer to selective risk-taking than outright conviction.</p> <p>Index and ETF flow remained primarily defensive: broad put demand across equity index products, Treasury duration ETFs, and small caps pointed to investors maintaining protection ahead of Wednesday's CPI release and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, even as deep-in-the-money equity calls and selected single-name upside softened the fully defensive read.</p> <hr /> <p><strong >Options angle</strong></p> <p>VIX closed Monday at 18.92, down from 21.51 on Friday, with the very short-dated VIX1D falling sharply to 16.02. The nine-day VIX (VIX9D) at 19.69 now sits above spot VIX, indicating that the market is pricing its concern into the CPI-to-FOMC window over the next two weeks rather than the immediate session. Based on S&P 500 options pricing, the market is implying a weekly expected move of approximately 109 points, projecting a range of roughly 7,297 to 7,515 around Monday's close. Put options continue to command higher premiums than equivalent calls, consistent with the hedging demand that persisted even as prices recovered on Monday.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <h4>Strategy insight – Long strangle into the CPI window</h4> <p>With implied vol running at moderate levels and Wednesday's CPI release representing a genuine binary catalyst, a long strangle – buying an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put on the same underlying with the same expiry – positions for a larger-than-priced move in either direction without requiring a directional view. The structure costs less than an at-the-money straddle because both legs start out of the money, making it more appropriate when the catalyst is binary and the potential move may exceed the currently priced range. <br /> <em>The maximum loss is the net premium paid for both legs if the underlying stays between the breakeven prices and the options expire worthless.</em></p> <h4>Strategy insight – Calendar spread to capture event vol decay</h4> <p>When a near-dated expiry captures a known catalyst such as a CPI release, front-month implied volatility often runs above the back-month level on the same strike, reflecting the event premium baked into the nearer option. A calendar spread sells the near-dated option and buys the same strike in the next expiry, collecting this volatility differential and achieving maximum profit when the underlying settles near the short strike once the event has passed. The structure requires less capital than an outright long position and benefits directly from the faster time decay of the front-month leg. <br /> <em>The main risk is a large post-CPI move that pushes the underlying well beyond the short strike's breakeven range, collapsing the calendar's profit zone.</em></p> <hr /> <p><strong >Conclusion</strong></p> <p><span >Heading into Tuesday, the options market is still wearing its seatbelt from last week: VIX above 18 with a term structure sloping upward into the CPI-FOMC window, put premiums elevated relative to calls, and Monday's options tape leaning defensive-first with only selective upside participation. Wednesday's CPI print is the next pivot point, and the vol surface's reaction to that data will tell traders more about June's direction than any individual session.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---options-amplified-fridays-sell-off---8-june-2026-08062026" data-id="4782F4CCCAFE44D08FEF66B051CA4C6D" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Options amplified Fridays sell-off - 8 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---broadcom-shock-rotation-wins---5-june-2026-05062026" data-id="81DDFDAFDFB2403A83DD2DB2B35A9D63" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Broadcom shock rotation wins - 5 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-oil-swing-dow-record---28-may-2026-28052026" data-id="F4B69C48DD584E45A4C99EE42EEF1723" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran oil swing Dow record - 28 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---nasdaq-clears-30000---27-may-2026-27052026" data-id="70ECD5D1214E4CF5A77A108317853F86" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Nasdaq clears 30000 - 27 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Many moving parts ahead of next week's seminal event</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:54:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Still a lot of wood to chop to get back to an even keel in equity markets.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"> <h4 class="article-heading--4"> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/many-moving-parts-ahead-of-next-weeks-seminal-event/" target="_blank"><br /> Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.</h4> <h4>Links</h4> <p> </p> <p> <p> <p> <ul> <li>Today's <span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-usd-rally-faces-cpi-test-and-iron-grip-of-long-term-range-09062026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The FX Trader</a></span> from John</li> <li>The great Izabella Kaminska with <span><a href="https://x.com/izakaminska/status/2064057009171783912" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second order thinking in an X post on the possible signal from China's ability to crater its oil imports</a></span>.</li> <li>"<a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w35310" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span>Is the iPhone birth control?</span></a>", asks an academic paper FTAlphaville links to, which is a study linking the launch of the iPhone in the US with lower fertility. Now imagine what widespread immersive AI will do...</li> </ul> </p> </p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Questions and comments, please!</h3> We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.</div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em><br /> This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.<br /> </em><br /> <em>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a></div> </article> <article> <h1>Gold slips below 200-day average as inflation, jobs and Fed risks bite</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <strong>Key points:</strong> <ul> <li>Gold closed below its 200-day moving average last Friday for the first time since October 2023 as stronger US jobs data and rising inflation concerns reinforced the higher-for-longer rate narrative. </li> <li>The current energy-driven inflation shock is supporting bond yields and the dollar, limiting gold's ability to act as a traditional safe haven despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. </li> <li>Technical focus now shifts towards USD 4,100–4,075, a key support zone that includes the March low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022–2026 rally. </li> <li>Long-term fundamentals remain supportive, but renewed investment demand likely requires a Middle East peace deal and easing inflation concerns and a recovery above USD 4,500 and the 50-day moving average near USD 4,600.</li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span> <p>Gold’s correction deepened over the past week after stronger-than-expected US jobs data and renewed inflation concerns combined to push bullion below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. The move marks an important technical setback for a market that has spent much of the past four years in a powerful uptrend, supported by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal debt concerns and persistent demand for portfolio diversification.</p> <p>While the long-term bullish case remains intact, the market is currently being driven by a very different set of forces. Since mid-April, gold has increasingly traded as a victim of an energy-driven inflation scare, with investors focusing on rising oil prices, higher inflation expectations, stronger bond yields and a firmer dollar rather than the longer-term themes that helped drive prices to record highs earlier this year.</p> <p>The latest setback in ceasefire negotiations has only reinforced that dynamic. As long as the conflict continues to threaten energy supplies and keep inflation risks elevated, investors are likely to remain focused on the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates rather than gold’s traditional role as a portfolio diversifier.</p> <p>This also explains why gold has struggled to respond positively to geopolitical tensions. Gold’s safe-haven appeal tends to perform best during a financial crisis or growth shock, periods when central banks cut rates, real yields fall and the dollar weakens. The current environment is very different. A supply-driven energy shock does the opposite by lifting inflation expectations, supporting the dollar and reducing the scope for monetary easing. In that environment, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises, making it harder for gold to attract investment demand despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty.</p> <p>The break below the 200-day moving average carries significance beyond its technical appearance on a chart. For many medium- and long-term investors, the 200-day average serves as an important trend filter. While the level itself has no magical forecasting ability, it is widely used by systematic funds, momentum traders and risk-managed investment strategies when assessing trend direction and exposure. As a result, a sustained break below can trigger position reductions, while also discouraging fresh buying from investors who prefer confirmation that the broader trend remains intact.</p> <p>For traders, the focus now shifts to identifying where the current correction may find support. Following the break below the 200-day average, attention turns towards the USD 4,100 to USD 4,075 area, which marks both the March correction low and the 38.2% retracement of the powerful rally that began in 2022 and carried gold close to USD 5,600 earlier this year. While a decline of this magnitude feels uncomfortable for investors caught on the wrong side of the move, it is worth remembering that in technical terms it still represents a relatively modest correction within a much larger secular uptrend.</p> <p>Looking ahead, inflation developments will remain the dominant short-term driver. Wednesday’s US CPI report is likely to attract significant attention as investors attempt to assess whether higher energy costs are beginning to feed through more broadly into consumer prices. This will be followed by the June 17 FOMC meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, a meeting that may provide fresh clues regarding how concerned policymakers are becoming about the inflation outlook.</p> <p>For now, financial markets continue to price a scenario where inflation remains sticky enough to prevent any meaningful shift towards easier monetary policy. That backdrop has supported both Treasury yields and the dollar while simultaneously weighing on gold.</p> <p>From a positioning perspective, there are signs that much of the excess optimism has already been removed from the market. Bloomberg-tracked gold ETF holdings have declined by 88 tonnes this year to 3,048 tonnes, although holdings remain 282 tonnes higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, speculative positioning in COMEX gold futures has stabilised after recently falling to a two-year low. Managed money and other reportable traders currently hold a net long position of around 171,000 contracts, up from a recent low near 149,000 contracts, but below the one-year average of 194,000 contracts. </p> <p>The size of speculative exposure is influenced by several factors including volatility, margin requirements, funding costs and momentum. With volatility easing and margin requirements falling from recent peaks, the key missing ingredient for renewed demand is momentum. At present, momentum remains negative due to the downtrend that has been in place since March.</p> <p>For that picture to improve, gold first needs to reclaim USD 4,500 and then challenge the 50-day moving average near USD 4,600. Until then, traders are likely to remain focused on downside risks while longer-term investors wait for a catalyst capable of shifting attention away from inflation fears and back towards the structural drivers that underpin the broader bull market.</p> <p>Ultimately, a durable peace agreement and a normalisation of energy markets remain the most likely catalysts for such a shift. Only when inflation concerns begin to fade can investors once again refocus on the longer-term themes that have supported gold throughout this cycle: central bank reserve diversification, growing fiscal debt burdens, currency debasement concerns and an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape.</p> </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Fed funds expectations, bond yields and the dollar have recently been weighing on gold prices - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold with key technical support and resistance levels - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold's four-year rally with key retracement levels - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Theme - Precious metals</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Obesity drugs enter their second act</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Lilly still leads the obesity drug race</strong>, but the next phase is broader than weight loss.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Novo’s Wegovy pill shows strong demand</strong>, even as investors question its long-term edge.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Competition is shifting toward pills, fewer side effects, lower prices</strong> and wider health benefits.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span> <p><span>The obesity drug story used to look simple. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk had the medicines, demand was huge, and investors applauded. Nice and tidy, which markets rarely allow for long.</span></p> <p><span>Now the story is entering its second act. At the American Diabetes Association meeting in New Orleans from 5 to 8 June 2026, new data showed Lilly still setting the pace, Novo pushing back with pills and combinations, and rivals trying to win by being easier, gentler, cheaper or more targeted.</span></p> <p><span>Markets reflect that split. Over 12 months, Lilly is up about 42%, Novo is down about 47%, and AstraZeneca is up about 27%, helped by rising credibility as a broader obesity challenger.</span></p> </span></p> <span> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg, chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI. Returns are price returns only and are not adjusted for dividends. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Lilly raises the ceiling again</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Eli Lilly makes medicines across several disease areas, but obesity has become its main growth engine. Zepbound already made it the company to beat. Now retatrutide, its next-generation weekly injection, has raised expectations again.</span></p> <p><span>Retatrutide is known as a triple agonist. In plain English, it copies three body signals involved in appetite, blood sugar and energy use: glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), and glucagon. The full names can now be safely parked. The key point is simpler: Lilly is trying to pull several biological levers at once.</span></p> <p><span>The latest data showed average weight loss of 28.3% over 80 weeks at the highest tested dose, with a longer extension showing just above 30% in a selected group. The lower dose also drew attention because it delivered strong weight loss with fewer side-effect concerns. That matters because the best drug on paper is not always the best drug in real life. Patients need to stay on it. </span></p> <p><span>Lilly also showed benefits in sleep apnoea, knee pain and type 2 diabetes. That may prove more important than the headline weight-loss number. If obesity drugs can also reduce related health problems, they become less like cosmetic products and more like broad healthcare platforms.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Novo still owns an important front door</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Novo Nordisk is not standing still. The Danish company has more than 100 years of experience in diabetes care, and Wegovy turned it into the first global obesity-drug champion. Its challenge now is to prove it can defend that position in a market moving quickly.</span></p> <p><span>Novo’s strongest recent card is the Wegovy pill. The company said prescriptions surpassed 3 million in the United States since launch in January 2026, with more than 80% of new starts coming from people new to glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) therapy. That matters because the Wegovy pill is not only pulling patients away from injections. It appears to be bringing new people into the category.</span></p> <p><span>Convenience matters. Some people dislike injections. Some need a maintenance option after weight loss. Others may accept less dramatic results for a lower price or easier routine. In healthcare, the best product is often the one people actually take. </span></p> <p><span>Novo also presented new data for CagriSema, a weekly injection combining semaglutide with an amylin analogue. Amylin is another hormone linked to appetite and blood sugar control. In type 2 diabetes trials, CagriSema reduced both blood sugar and body weight. The data helps Novo show that it still has serious science behind its pipeline.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The rest of the field enters the kitchen</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The obesity market is now too large for only two companies. More than 1 billion people worldwide live with obesity, according to the World Health Organization. That does not mean everyone will use these drugs, but it explains why the industry is rushing in.</span></p> <p><span>AstraZeneca is one of the more interesting challengers. Its experimental pill, elecoglipron, helped patients lose up to 11.8% of body weight over 36 weeks in a mid-stage trial. That is below Lilly’s strongest injection data, but AstraZeneca is trying to compete differently: through combinations, cardiometabolic expertise, price and emerging-market reach.</span></p> <p><span> <p data-start="14" data-end="376">Other companies are trying to win where Lilly and Novo may not be perfect. Some are testing monthly injections, others are developing gentler amylin-based drugs, and several are working on treatments that may better preserve muscle mass. That matters because not all weight loss is equal. </p> <p data-start="378" data-end="654">Zealand Pharma’s sharp fall after tolerability concerns around a partnered obesity drug is a useful reminder of the challenge. In this market, a big weight-loss number can open the door, but side effects, dropout rates and patient comfort decide how long that door stays open.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is tolerability. Nausea, vomiting and treatment dropouts can limit adoption, especially if patients must stay on therapy for years. Early warning signs include high discontinuation rates in trials and weak refill data after launch.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is pricing and access. These medicines can be expensive, and health systems will not pay unlimited bills with a smile. Watch insurance coverage, government negotiations and evidence that drugs reduce wider healthcare costs.</span></p> <p><span> <p data-start="0" data-end="130">The third risk is competition. New entrants could pressure prices, and pipeline setbacks could quickly change market expectations.</p> <p data-start="132" data-end="458">For Lilly, the risk is that its share price already reflects strong confidence in Zepbound, retatrutide and the wider pipeline. For Novo, the valuation looks less demanding after its sharp decline, but investors want proof that Wegovy pills, CagriSema and future combinations can rebuild confidence as competition intensifies.</p> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Track adherence, not only weight loss.</strong> A medicine only creates value if patients keep using it.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Separate science from sales.</strong> Strong trial data still needs manufacturing, access and doctor adoption.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch the pipeline as a portfolio. </strong>One drug is useful. Several options create resilience.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Treat obesity exposure as healthcare growth,</strong> not a straight-line story. </span>Competition will bring setbacks.</li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Beyond the bathroom scale</strong></h3> <p><span>The obesity drug race began with the bathroom scale. That made sense. Weight loss is easy to understand, easy to measure and easy to turn into headlines. But the market is now growing up. The next winners may be the companies that combine strong results with fewer side effects, easier use, wider health benefits, better access and a deeper pipeline.<br /> <br /> Lilly currently looks like the pace-setter. Novo still has powerful commercial reach and scientific depth. Rivals are no longer background music. For investors, the lesson is simple: the scale still matters, but it may not decide the final winner.</span></p> <em>This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.<br /> </em><br /> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Pharmaceutical</span> <span>Theme - Big pharma</span> <span>Zealand Pharma AS</span> <span>Novo Nordisk</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>The FX Trader: USD rally faces CPI test and iron grip of long-term range</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Local US dollar break higher, but still stuck in the bigger range.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4><strong><span>The latest </span></strong></h4> <p><strong><span>US dollar status: still in breakout mode, but also still within longer term range with low anticipated volatility</span></strong><strong><span>. </span></strong><span>Friday’s big risk-off move in bubbly tech stocks partially reversed Monday, while Monday’s crude oil price surge on fresh hostilities in the Iran war has completely reversed. That leaves the big surge in US Treasury yields in the wake of Friday’s May jobs report, which has reversed least of all. These are the intermarket forces moving the US dollar, which remains above the key breakout levels from Friday, but now having retraced some of that move, awaiting developments (see EURUSD chart focus below). The next key developments could include another bout of determined Japanese intervention against a weaker JPY if USDJPY continues slipping higher above 160.00 in the wake of the May US CPI release tomorrow.</span></p> <p><span>Let’s recall that the May 12 release of hotter than expected April US CPI numbers for both the headline and the core failed to generate much volatility, perhaps as Iran war headlines were still more dominant at the time. With prices at the pump at US gas stations receding consistently since late May and hopes for an Iran war ceasefire high on Trump’s very clear determination to declare a ceasefire deal, will the market look through slightly hot inflation data? Unsure. Softer than expected data would be the surprise-side if there is one.</span></p> <p><span>Regardless, if crude oil prices are a non-factor and trading sideways to lower, the two variables to watch in a FX market that seems to be taking its signals from other markets, are the US treasury market and risk sentiment in global equities after Friday’s chunky moves. All the while, market participants may be wary of making determined directional trades ahead of the beginning of what is likely to be a profound transition at the Fed under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh. Much more on that in a later update before next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.</span></p> <p><strong><span>AUD softer on NAB call on RBA policy.</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong><span>The Aussie was soft in the crosses overnight, but the catalyst was not another woeful Westpac Consumer Confidence survey print for June, which saw confidence slipping back toward the April cycle low rather than improving slightly. Rather, it was National Australia Bank reversing its call for another RBA rate hike in August and saying that the next rate move would more likely be a cut, if with uncertain timing. The RBA has been hiking into supply-side inflation shock and now rising unemployment, so it seems a fair call. AUDNZD fell from Monday’s high of 1.2187 as far as 1.2084 overnight before rebounding slightly.</span></p> <p><strong><span>BoC and ECB on tap, with the ECB the one to watch Thursday</span></strong><strong><span>. </span></strong><span>We can safely assume no move from the Bank of Canada at tomorrow’s meeting, which faces a weak Canadian economy and aggravated uncertainty from Trump tariff threats as tensions remain high ahead of the July 1 deadline for renewal of the existing USMCA deal (which is what the US side calls it, in Canada it is called CUSMA). That deadline will be missed, according to sources, which will leave the terms-of-trade landscape uncertain, potentially for months. The USDCAD rally has extended to the top of the recent range into the 1.3950 area, leaving only the 1.4100+ range highs as the next resistance should USD strength persist.</span></p> <p><span>The market is pricing near total certainty that the ECB hikes this Thursday in a move that could eventually play like Trichet’s 2008 and especially the two 2011 hikes if the forward projection of another hike in September plays out. I would lean for a slightly dovish surprise potential in the guidance as the ECB would do well to hem and haw on the potential for further tightening, considering the very weak Eurozone growth and that rate tightening does nothing to address a supply-side inflation shock. Let’s see.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Chart focus: EURUSD<br /> </span></strong><span >Many USD pairs are in the same situation as EURUSD – some having broken recent key local levels and suggesting a USD breakout, but still hemmed in by the longer-term broader range. In the EURUSD’s case, that range extends below the key round 1.1500 level that was touched to the pip yesterday and to the March low of 1.1411, which is the lowest level since 2025. This Thursday’s ECB meeting will prove far less influential in moving the EURUSD level than the direction of US treasury yields and broader risk sentiment in the wake of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (the US CPI release tomorrow could prove a temporary distraction and drive broader choppy USD volatility if at first the USD trades stronger and then Japan’s MoF steps in and starts slamming the market with USDJPY selling, which can leak into other USD pairs.). The upward arrow suggests that a strong and quick reversal back into the range is needed for bulls to build a case for a test higher still.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong >FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.<br /> </strong><span >Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, p</span><span >lease </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://video.home.saxo/video/110146019/20250221-fx-board-videofinal" target="_blank" ><strong>see a video tutorial</strong></a><span > for </span><span >understanding and using the FX Board.</span></p> <p><span> <p><span>The US dollar rally remains modest in the bigger picture, with a reading of 2.6, with low volatility of late enhancing the move a bit artificially (all trend strength readings are volatility adjusted using the 50-day ATR (EMA)). The only true trend is China’s persistent foot on the CNH stability and strength pedal – note EURCNH hitting strong new lows late last week as China keeps the USDCNH from moving much even on a day like Friday, in which the USD surged broadly. The deep blue readings for many of the ATRs show that volatility is woefully compressed, making for a frustrating environment for FX traders.</span></p> </span></p> </p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> </p> <p><span><strong><span>Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs</span></strong></span><span>.<br /> </span><span >Lots of trend shifts going on here, with trust rather low in many of these due to widespread lack of energy in the FX market. EURNOK is set to flip to a positive trend at the current level, following EURSEK’s flip to positive, though the latter is still within the range topped by the massive 11.00 level. The first major JPY pairs are poking at flips to a negative trend as traders are wary, amidst the widespread USD strength, to push USDJPY significantly through 160.00. AUDUSD and NZUSD are the most recent USD pairs to join the USD rally trend, and the EURAUD potential flip to a positive trend today would come after 40 days of a negative trend.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/john-hardy"><div>John J. Hardy</div><div>Global Head of Macro Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>FR US Actualites et Analyses</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>After the Nasdaq shock: three QQQ option strategies for three market views</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:55:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The Nasdaq had a sharp selloff last week, and QQQ is bouncing back. But is it a recovery, a range-bound consolidation, or a dead-cat bounce before the next leg lower? The options market won’t tell you the answer directly, but it does give you a framework. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>After the Nasdaq shock: three QQQ option strategies for three market views</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Rebound, range, or dead-cat bounce? How traders can use expected move to structure uncertainty.</em></p> <p>After a sharp selloff, the first rebound often creates more questions than answers. Is the market recovering, or is it merely catching its breath before another leg lower? For investors looking at the Nasdaq through QQQ, that uncertainty is exactly where options can be useful.</p> <p>The goal is not to predict the next move perfectly. The goal is to choose a strategy that matches your view.</p> <p>For this educational example, we use QQQ options expiring on 17 July 2026. That expiry gives the trade roughly six weeks to develop: long enough to avoid turning every intraday move into a crisis, but short enough for option premium and time decay to remain meaningful. Very short-dated options can be tempting after a volatility spike, but they are often harder to manage because gamma risk rises quickly as expiration approaches.</p> <p><strong>Important note:</strong> The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.<br /> <br /> Before choosing strikes, we need a reference point. One useful method is the at-the-money straddle. Around the time of the screenshots, QQQ traded near 722, while the 723 call was priced around 23.04 and the 723 put around 21.03. Together, that straddle cost about 44 points.<br /> <br /> <strong data-start="19" data-end="35">Method note:</strong> The at-the-money straddle is often used as a practical proxy for the market’s expected move because it combines the price of an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put with the same expiry. Since the position is direction-neutral at the start, its total premium reflects how much movement option buyers are paying for, and option sellers are demanding compensation for, before expiration. It should not be read as a forecast or guaranteed range, but as a market-implied reference point for thinking about strike selection.<br /> <br /> <span >That does not mean QQQ must move 44 points. It means the options market was pricing a rough expected range of about 679 to 767 by expiration. This range can help traders think more clearly about strike selection. Instead of randomly choosing strikes that “look far away,” we can place strategies around the market’s own implied range.</span></p> <p><em><br /> QQQ rebounded after Friday’s selloff, but the option strikes frame three possible paths: recovery, range, or renewed weakness. Source: SaxoTrader</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"> <p><strong >1. Bullish view: the rebound can hold</strong></p> </h2> <p>A trader with a constructive view may believe the selloff was sharp but temporary. In that case, the market does not necessarily need to surge higher. It may simply need to avoid falling back below a key level.</p> <p>One way to express that view is a bull put spread.</p> <p>In the screenshot, the example sells the 690 put and buys the 670 put, both expiring 17 July 2026. The spread receives a credit of about 3.86 points. Since QQQ options represent 100 shares, that is about 386 dollars per spread before costs. The maximum risk is the 20-point spread width minus the credit received, or about 1,614 dollars per spread.</p> <p><em><br /> A bull put spread can express a constructive view without requiring QQQ to rally sharply. Source: SaxoTrader</em></p> <p>The short 690 put is above the lower edge of the expected-move range, but still below the market price. That makes the position bullish, but not wildly so. The trader is effectively saying: “QQQ may fluctuate, but I expect it to stay above 690.”</p> <p>The advantage is that the trade can work if QQQ rises, moves sideways, or even slips moderately. The disadvantage is that the profit is capped at the credit received, while a renewed selloff below 690 can pressure the position quickly. There is also assignment risk with ETF options if short options are held near expiration and finish in the money.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>2. Neutral view: the market digests the move</strong></h2> <p>A neutral trader may believe the market needs time to process the selloff and rebound. QQQ may not collapse, but it may also struggle to immediately resume its previous trend.</p> <p>For that view, an iron condor can be useful.</p> <p>The example uses four legs, all expiring 17 July 2026: buy the 660 put, sell the 680 put, sell the 765 call, and buy the 785 call. The position receives a credit of about 6.22 points, or roughly 622 dollars per iron condor before costs. With 20-point-wide wings, the maximum risk is about 1,378 dollars per spread.</p> <p><em><br /> The iron condor turns a range-bound view into a defined-risk options structure. Source: SaxoTrader</em></p> <p>The short strikes at 680 and 765 sit close to the expected-move range. That is the key educational point. The trader is not choosing a random range. The structure is built around what the options market is already implying.</p> <p>The trade benefits if QQQ remains between the short strikes and time decay works in the trader’s favour. It may also benefit if implied volatility falls after the volatility spike.</p> <p>But neutral does not mean safe. If QQQ breaks below 680 or above 765, the trade becomes directional very quickly. That is why defined-risk wings matter. They limit the damage if the market does something inconvenient, which markets occasionally do, just to keep us humble.</p> <p>A broader index, such as XSP or SPX, could also be considered for this type of neutral strategy. A broader index is usually less concentrated than QQQ and may therefore be easier to manage for investors who do not want a Nasdaq-heavy exposure.<br /> <br /> <span><strong>Important note: </strong></span>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>3. Bearish view: the rebound fades</strong></h2> <p>A bearish trader may see the rebound as a relief rally rather than a full recovery. Instead of buying puts after a volatility spike, another approach is to sell upside premium through a bear call spread.</p> <p>The example sells the 755 call and buys the 775 call, expiring 17 July 2026. The spread receives a credit of about 4.57 points, or roughly 457 dollars per spread before costs. The maximum risk is about 1,543 dollars per spread.</p> <p><em><br /> A bear call spread can express the view that the rebound fades before QQQ pushes much higher. Source: SaxoTrader</em></p> <p>The short 755 call is below the upper edge of the expected-move range. This gives QQQ some room to continue bouncing, but the trade assumes that upside momentum eventually stalls before QQQ moves much beyond 755.</p> <p>The advantage is that the position has defined risk and can profit if QQQ moves sideways or lower. The disadvantage is that a stronger rebound can hurt quickly. A trader may be right that the market is fragile, but still lose money if the entry is too early or the short strike is too close.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Final thought</strong></h2> <p>Options are not only about leverage. They are also a way to structure uncertainty.</p> <p>A bullish trader might use the 690/670 bull put spread. A neutral trader might use the 680/660 and 765/785 iron condor. A bearish trader might use the 755/775 bear call spread.</p> <p>Same underlying. Same expiry. Three different views.</p> <p>That is the real lesson: do not start with the option strategy. Start with the market view, then choose the structure that fits it.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/what-iv-crush-really-means-in-practice-reviewed-version-09042026">What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version</a><span> | 9 April 2026</span><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/trading-earnings-with-defined-risk-reviewed-version-31032026" data-id="C3DC31F213E5461E9D51776D528064DF" data-type="Article">Trading earnings with defined</a> | 31 Mar 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/paypal-earnings-trading-the-expected-move-with-options-04052026" data-id="34397D181F98480B9F48873D8C25ADF9" data-type="Article">PayPal earnings trading the expected move with options</a> | 4 May 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/arcelormittal-earnings-what-a-10-options-move-can-teach-traders-28042026" data-id="CCAB553D95F143248ADA546E6BE30343" data-type="Article">ArcelorMittal earnings what a 10 options move can teach traders</a> | 28 April 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/asml-earnings-is-the-8-move-already-priced-in-10042026" data-id="D311ED65B496499C88EBF4C5910E61FB" data-type="VideoArticle">ASML earnings is the 8 move already priced in</a> | 10 April 2026<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/asml-earnings---how-to-think-about-the-setup-before-the-numbers-10042026" data-id="8F7A31C3424E4A1099A2484888431B48" data-type="Article">ASML earnings - how to think about the setup before the numbers</a> | 10 April 2026<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-night-fed-holds---29-april-2026-29042026" data-id="E829D7CC98414B4EB9EE8FB3C5E9C259" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings night Fed holds - 29 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---mag-7-earnings-on-deck---28-april-2026-28042026" data-id="C2697121DE0A4E92B1BD27C9120C4A88" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---oil-jolt---us-records---23-april-2026-23042026" data-id="A747E1CADA614BC7A2A9AF01EFDF3A2F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Oil jolt - US records - 23 April 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span> <span>Volatility and event strategies</span> <span>Defined risk strategies</span> <span>Sell premium credit strategies</span> <span>Trading Strategies</span> <span>Option Strategies</span> <span>Bearish strategies</span> <span>Bullish strategies</span> <span>Range‑bound strategies</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 9 June 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:20:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 9 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US chips rebounded, Europe was broadly flat, and Asia recovered after Monday’s AI-driven selloff.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX falls, CPI ahead, rebound test, defensive skew, hedging demand</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin rebounds, ETF outflows, selective optimism</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil falls, gold rises as Israel and Iran halt hostilities.</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US treasury yield rise tamed slightly as crude oil price surge eases, Key May US CPI release up on Wednesday.</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> US rally partially reverses on recovering risk sentiment. AUD weak.</li> <li><strong>Macro:</strong> US April Trade Balance, May Existing Home Sales & 3-year Notes Auction</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks</strong>, easing fears of a wider conflict and energy-driven inflation. President Donald Trump said both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final negotiations were progressing.</li> <li><strong>Australia’s consumer sentiment slipped into “deeply pessimistic” territory </strong>in June after the Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.9% to 80.6 points – one of the weakest seen in the 50-year history of the survey - as households struggle with cost of living pressures and concerns emerge over the outlook for the housing market following tax changes. Meanwhile Australia’s May business conditions were unchanged from a month earlier while confidence where higher than expected. National Australia Bank abandoned its call for an August RBA rate hike, saying that the next move from the central bank was more likely to be a cut, with the timing uncertain.</li> <li><strong>China's trade surplus jumped to USD 105.4 billion in May</strong>, the biggest since January, as exports jumped more than 19% from a year earlier, topping forecasts as booming demand for artificial intelligence hardware offsets disruptions from the war in Iran, while imports soared over 27%. </li> <li><strong>US one-year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 3.5% in May from 3.6%</strong>. Consumers see slower price growth for gas, medical care, and college, but faster for homes, food, and rent. Three- and five-year expectations were steady at 3.1% and 3%. Expected earnings growth stayed at 2.7%, spending growth fell to 5%, and unemployment expectations edged down to 43.2%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <ul> <li>0600 – Germany April Industrial Production</li> <li>1230 – US April Trade Balance</li> <li>1400 – US May Existing Home Sales</li> <li>1700 – US Treasury to sell USD 58 billion 3-year Notes</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li>Wednesday: Oracle</li> <li>Thursday: Adobe, Dollarama</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,405.73, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%, and the Dow slipped 0.2% as investors bought back into parts of Friday’s AI selloff. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.6%, with Intel up 11.2% on reports Alphabet placed a large AI-chip order, Micron up 9.9% on the memory rebound, and Marvell up 9.6% after index-inclusion news. Apple fell 1.9% after its AI event underwhelmed, while financials lost 0.6%. Markets now watch US inflation data and Oracle earnings for the next reality check.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2% to 621.73, the DAX fell 0.6% to 24,616, the SMI lost 0.5%, and the FTSE 100 was flat at 10,373 as Middle East headlines drove another choppy session. Zealand Pharma plunged 22.7% after obesity-drug concerns, pulling Novo Nordisk down 4.2%, while Monte dei Paschi jumped 13% on competing Italian banking bids and Intesa Sanpaolo fell 1.4% after launching its offer. Technology partly softened the blow as Europe’s tech index rose 1.3%, but chemicals lagged after a sector downgrade. Investors now turn to the European Central Bank meeting and oil-price swings.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asia rebounded today after Monday’s sharp selloff, with the Kospi up 3.0%, the Nikkei 225 up 0.9%, the CSI 300 up 0.4%, and Singapore’s STI up 1.1%, while the Hang Seng slipped 0.2% as the recovery stayed uneven. South Korea led the turn as SK Hynix rose 7.7% on Nvidia partnership news and Samsung Electronics gained 3.4% with the chip rebound. Tokyo Electron jumped 7.6% in Japan, while Alibaba fell 0.5% in Hong Kong after fresh US blacklist pressure. The message was simple: AI was not dead, but the crowd was jumpy.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility eased on Monday after Friday’s sharp sell-off</strong>, but investors remain cautious about declaring the correction over. The <strong>VIX </strong>fell<strong> from 21.51 to 18.92</strong>, while <strong>VIX1D </strong>dropped to<strong> 16.02</strong> and <strong>VIX9D </strong>to <strong>19.69</strong>, indicating that immediate panic hedging has subsided. The S&P 500 gained 0.30%, but attention now shifts to Wednesday’s US CPI report, ongoing Middle East tensions, and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The key question for investors is whether Monday’s strength marks the start of a sustainable rebound or simply a short-lived relief rally after an oversold move.</li> <li><strong>Based on SPX options pricing</strong>, the market is currently implying an <strong>expected move of approximately 109 points (1.47%) </strong>into Friday’s expiry, suggesting <strong>a projected range of roughly 7,297 to 7,515</strong> around Monday’s close of 7,405.73.</li> <li><strong>Daily SPX options read</strong>: The options market remains defensive. <strong>Put options continue to command higher premiums than comparable calls</strong>, indicating that investors are still willing to pay for downside protection despite Monday’s rebound. Recent analysis from Cboe suggests that last week’s volatility spike was driven primarily by increased demand for portfolio hedges rather than outright panic selling. <strong>In practical terms, investors are participating in the rebound, but they are not abandoning their protection.</strong></li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets rebounded alongside broader risk assets</strong> as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease and risk sentiment improved. Bitcoin recovered above $63,000, while Ethereum stabilised near $1,690, both bouncing from last week’s sharp declines. The recovery was supported by reports that Israel and Iran halted recent military operations, reducing immediate geopolitical concerns, and by renewed Bitcoin purchases from Strategy, which disclosed the acquisition of an additional 1,550 Bitcoin.</li> <li><strong>Crypto-related equities outperformed the underlying cryptocurrencies</strong>. <strong>IBIT </strong>rose 5.1%, <strong>ETHA </strong>gained 7.2%, while <strong>Coinbase </strong>(+6.4%), <strong>Strategy </strong>(+5.6%),<strong> Marathon Digital</strong> (+11.9%), <strong>Riot Platforms</strong> (+4.2%), and <strong>CleanSpark </strong>(+6.0%) all posted strong gains. Major altcoins also participated in the recovery, with Solana, XRP, and several other large-cap tokens moving higher. However, the broader backdrop remains mixed. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflow since April 2025 last week, highlighting that institutional investors remain cautious even as prices recover. <strong>Options activity continues to point towards selective risk-taking rather than aggressive bullish positioning</strong>, suggesting investors are willing to participate in upside while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Oil gave back most of Monday’s gains</strong> after Israel and Iran halted hostilities that had threatened to derail already fragile efforts to secure a broader peace agreement in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, maintained his typically optimistic tone, saying negotiations are in the "final throes" of what he expects will be a successful deal.</li> <li><strong>China’s crude oil imports fell to an eight-year low last month</strong> at 33.1 million tons (7.8mb/d) as refiners increasingly drew on accumulated inventories rather than sourcing additional barrels from abroad. The 29% YoY drop together with a surge in US exports, releases from SPR, and a degree of demand destruction, helps explain why oil prices failed to rally more aggressively during last month's supply disruptions.</li> <li>At the same time, the continued lack of progress towards restoring normal energy flows from the Middle East reinforces <strong>expectations of a prolonged period of elevated oil prices</strong>. Forward curves remain well supported, with the 2027 average price for Brent and WTI trading near cycle highs at around USD 80 and USD 75.5 per barrel respectively, around 20% above pre-war levels.</li> <li><strong>Gold stabilised after a two-day slump that saw prices break below key technical support</strong>, triggering additional selling from short-term momentum-driven traders. However, rising expectations of further US rate hikes, together with higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, continue to create a challenging backdrop for bullion. These headwinds are currently overshadowing longer-term supportive themes, including central bank demand, fiscal sustainability concerns, and ongoing reserve diversification away from the US dollar..</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields eased lower from cycle highs at the front end of the yield curve as crude oil prices fell </strong>on the latest hopes for a more durable ceasefire in the Iran war. After peaking just shy of 4.20% Monday, the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped back toward 4.15% by early trading Tuesday. At the longer end of the curve yields likewise dropped back early Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield trading near 4.55% after a Monday of 4.58%. <strong>With US treasury yields having traded at new highs for the cycle recently, the Wednesday US CPI release could have significant impact, depending on the direction of any surprise.</strong></li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yields at the long end of the curve fell back</strong> on the latest drop in crude oil prices, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield over two basis points lower from Monday’s close at 2.705% late Tuesday in Tokyo trading hours after an earlier session high just short of 2.75%. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar rally shifted quickly to reverse Monday as broad risk sentiment recovered from Friday’s sharp sell-off</strong> in equities and as the fresh crude oil price surge from the weekend’s developments in the Iran war likewise reversed. Still, the US dollar remains above key breakout levels, trading above 160.00 in USDJPY just as EURUSD remains below the prior range lows of 1.1576. Still, EURUSD finds itself in broad choppy range that extends to a 1.1422 if we take the early 2026 low in the weeks after the Iran war broke out. That is the lowest level since the August of 2025. The next key catalyst for the US dollar is Wednesday’s US CPI release.</li> <li><strong>The Australian dollar was weak in the crosses early Tuesday after one of Australia’s major four banks, National Australia Bank said that the next RBA move is more likely to be a cut,</strong> with uncertain timing, and that they no longer expect an RBA hike at the August meeting. Australian two-year swaps fell back as much as six basis points from Monday’s highs in the Tuesday session and AUDNZD fell back below 1.2100 to as low as 1.2087 after a Monday high of 1.2187.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>US CPI preview: Jobs shock turns inflation into a live trading event</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="26" data-end="237"><strong data-start="28" data-end="69">CPI is now a live Fed repricing risk.</strong> After Friday’s jobs shock, traders are watching whether inflation confirms the “higher for longer, maybe even higher again” narrative or gives markets room to breathe. </li> <li data-start="239" data-end="519"> <strong data-start="241" data-end="321">The cleanest trading signals are likely to come from yields, USD and Nasdaq.</strong> A hot print could lift front-end yields, strengthen the dollar and pressure growth/AI-linked names, while a softer print could support a relief rally in Nasdaq-linked instruments, gold and risk FX. </li> <li data-start="521" data-end="770"> <strong data-start="523" data-end="573">This is a volatility event, not a one-way bet.</strong> The first CPI move can reverse quickly once traders digest core inflation, shelter, energy and Fed implications, so position sizing, stop discipline and waiting for post-data confirmation matter.</li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <p><span> <p>US May CPI is due on 10 June 2026 at 8:30pm SGT, and traders are going into the print with very little room for comfort.</p> <p>After Friday’s jobs shock, the market has quickly moved from asking whether the Federal Reserve can cut rates to whether the Fed may still need to stay hawkish for longer — or even keep the door open to another hike if inflation refuses to cool.</p> <p>That makes this CPI report more than just another macro data point. It is a live trading event across equity indices, bond futures, FX and commodities.</p> <p>The consensus setup is already uncomfortable.</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Headline CPI for May is expected at <strong>0.5% month-on-month</strong></li> <li>Core CPI is expected at <strong>0.3% month-on-month</strong></li> <li>Headline inflation is expected at <strong>4.2% year-on-year </strong>(vs. 3.8% YoY in April)</li> <li>Core inflation is expected at <strong>2.9% year-on-year</strong> (vs. 2.8% YoY in April)</li> </ul> <p>The key question for traders is simple: does CPI confirm the post-jobs hawkish repricing for the Fed, or does it give markets permission to breathe?</p> <h2>Why this CPI matters now</h2> <p>Friday’s jobs report changed the market mood. A stronger labour market does not automatically mean the Fed has to hike again, but it does make it harder for the Fed to sound dovish.</p> <p>If the economy is still resilient and inflation is still sticky, the Fed has less reason to rush toward easing. That is why CPI now carries more weight. It will either validate the idea that the Fed may need to stay restrictive for longer, or it will push back against the market’s renewed hawkishness.</p> <p>For traders, this creates a setup where the first move after CPI may be sharp — but not always reliable. Markets often react first to the headline number, then reprice again once traders digest the core reading, shelter components, energy impact and Fed implications.</p> <p>That means this is not just about predicting the number. It is about preparing for volatility.</p> <h2>Instruments in focus</h2> <p>This CPI release is likely to drive volatility across several major asset classes. Traders may want to focus on instruments most sensitive to inflation expectations, interest-rate pricing and risk sentiment.</p> <h3>Equity indices</h3> <p>Key instruments to watch:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li><strong>US Tech 100 NAS</strong></li> <li><strong>US 500</strong></li> <li><strong>US 30 Wall Street</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures</strong></li> <li><strong>E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures</strong></li> <li><strong>E-mini S&P 500 futures</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro E-mini Russell 2000 futures</strong></li> </ul> <p>Why they matter:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Nasdaq-linked instruments are likely to be the highest-beta CPI trades.</li> <li>They are most sensitive to Treasury yields and valuation pressure.</li> <li>The US 500 gives a broader read on market risk appetite.</li> <li>The US 30 may be relatively more resilient if value and defensive sectors hold up better.</li> </ul> <h3>Bonds and rates</h3> <p>Key instruments to watch:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li><strong>2-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures</strong></li> <li><strong>5-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures</strong></li> <li><strong>10-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures</strong></li> <li><strong>U.S. Treasury Bond futures</strong></li> </ul> <p>Why they matter:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>The 2-year Treasury future is the cleanest expression of Fed repricing.</li> <li>The 10-year Treasury future gives a broader view of the growth-inflation mix.</li> <li>Treasury futures can confirm whether CPI is driving a real shift in rate expectations or just a knee-jerk move.</li> </ul> <h3>FX</h3> <p>Key instruments to watch:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li><strong>EURUSD</strong></li> <li><strong>USDJPY</strong></li> <li><strong>AUDUSD</strong></li> <li><strong>GBPUSD</strong></li> <li><strong>USDCHF</strong></li> <li><strong>USDCAD</strong></li> <li><strong>USDSGD</strong></li> <li><strong>NZDUSD</strong></li> </ul> <p>Why they matter:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>The US dollar remains the cleanest macro trade around CPI.</li> <li>USDJPY is especially sensitive to US Treasury yields.</li> <li>EURUSD is the broadest expression of dollar strength or weakness.</li> <li>AUDUSD and NZDUSD may react more strongly if CPI shifts overall risk appetite.</li> <li>USDSGD can be useful for traders watching how broad dollar strength filters into Asia FX.</li> </ul> <h3>Commodities</h3> <p>Key instruments to watch:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li><strong>Gold</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro Gold futures</strong></li> <li><strong>Silver</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro Silver futures</strong></li> <li><strong>Copper</strong></li> <li><strong>Micro Copper futures</strong></li> <li><strong>Platinum futures</strong></li> <li><strong>XAUUSD</strong></li> <li><strong>XAGUSD</strong></li> </ul> <p>Why they matter:</p> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Gold is highly sensitive to real yields and the US dollar.</li> <li>Silver can move with both precious-metal demand and industrial risk appetite.</li> <li>Copper is useful as a growth and China-risk sentiment gauge.</li> <li>Gold and silver may also react to safe-haven flows if CPI triggers a deeper risk-off move.</li> </ul> <h2>Scenario one: Hot CPI confirms the hawkish Fed repricing</h2> <p>The most difficult outcome for markets would be a CPI print above expectations, especially if core inflation is hotter than the expected <strong>0.3% month-on-month</strong>.</p> <p>This would suggest that inflation remains sticky despite the Fed’s restrictive policy stance. Combined with Friday’s strong labour market data, it would reinforce the idea that the Fed has little reason to ease and may need to keep policy tight for longer.</p> <h3>Likely market reaction</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>US yields could move higher, especially at the front end of the curve.</li> <li>The US dollar could strengthen as traders price a more hawkish Fed path.</li> <li>Equity indices could come under renewed pressure, with growth and AI-linked names most vulnerable.</li> <li>Nasdaq-linked instruments could see the sharpest downside because higher yields challenge long-duration growth valuations.</li> <li>USDJPY could move higher if US yields rise, but the <strong>160 area</strong> remains an intervention-sensitive zone.</li> <li>EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD could weaken if dollar strength becomes broad-based.</li> <li>Gold could come under pressure from higher yields and a stronger dollar.</li> <li>Short-dated Treasury futures could come under pressure as markets price a more restrictive Fed path.</li> </ul> <h3>Trading lens</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Respect downside risk in equity indices.</li> <li>Watch whether Nasdaq underperforms the broader market.</li> <li>Dollar strength is likely to be the cleaner macro expression.</li> <li>Be careful chasing USDJPY higher if the move becomes fast or disorderly.</li> <li>For gold, watch whether yields or safe-haven demand dominate.</li> <li>The key message from a hot print: the Fed put is further away than markets hoped.</li> </ul> <h2>Scenario two: CPI comes in line but does not calm the market</h2> <p>An in-line print may not be enough to deliver a clean relief rally.</p> <p>If headline CPI comes in at <strong>0.5% month-on-month</strong> and core CPI comes in at <strong>0.3% month-on-month</strong>, markets may avoid a fresh inflation shock, but they may not get a dovish signal either.</p> <p>This would leave traders in an uncomfortable middle ground. Inflation would still be above target, the labour market would still look resilient, and the Fed would still have limited room to sound relaxed.</p> <h3>Likely market reaction</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Equities may attempt to stabilise, but the rebound could lack conviction.</li> <li>The US dollar may hold firm without accelerating sharply.</li> <li>Treasury yields may remain elevated if traders are not ready to unwind Friday’s hawkish repricing.</li> <li>Nasdaq-linked instruments may stay volatile as investors debate whether the AI selloff has gone far enough.</li> <li>The US 500 may trade more sideways if the CPI print does not create a clear macro signal.</li> <li>USDJPY could remain supported if US yields stay elevated.</li> <li>AUDUSD and NZDUSD may struggle to rally unless broader risk sentiment improves.</li> <li>Gold could remain range-bound, supported by uncertainty but capped by higher yields.</li> <li>Market sentiment may remain headline-sensitive ahead of the next major inflation or labour-market data release.</li> </ul> <h3>Trading lens</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Avoid forcing a big directional view.</li> <li>This is more of a range-trading environment than a clean trend setup.</li> <li>Watch whether equities can hold the first bounce after CPI.</li> <li>Watch whether the front end of the Treasury market rallies; if it does not, hawkish Fed pricing remains sticky.</li> <li>Dollar dips may be shallow if the market keeps pricing higher-for-longer risk.</li> <li>The key message from an in-line print: the market may not panic, but it may not relax either.</li> </ul> <h2>Scenario three: Cool CPI gives risk assets room to rebound</h2> <p>The most supportive outcome for markets would be a softer core CPI print, especially if core inflation comes in below <strong>0.3% month-on-month</strong>.</p> <p>That would challenge the idea that Friday’s jobs report alone is enough to force a more hawkish Fed path. It could allow traders to reduce some of the recent hawkish repricing and trigger a relief rally across risk assets.</p> <h3>Likely market reaction</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>US yields could fall as traders reduce expectations of a more hawkish Fed.</li> <li>The US dollar could weaken, particularly against currencies that have been pressured by higher US rate expectations.</li> <li>Equities could rally, led by growth and technology stocks.</li> <li>Nasdaq-linked instruments could outperform because they were hit hardest by rising-yield concerns and AI valuation fatigue.</li> <li>The US 500 would need to participate for the rebound to look more durable.</li> <li>EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD could rebound as the dollar softens.</li> <li>AUD and NZD may outperform if softer CPI also improves global risk appetite.</li> <li>USDJPY could pull back if US yields fall, reducing immediate intervention pressure around the 160 area.</li> <li>Gold could benefit from lower yields and a softer dollar.</li> <li>Silver and copper could also recover if the move is accompanied by broader risk-on sentiment.</li> </ul> <h3>Trading lens</h3> <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Risk assets can bounce, but selectivity still matters.</li> <li>A softer CPI print may ease macro pressure, but it does not erase AI valuation concerns.</li> <li>Watch whether the rebound is broad or only concentrated in high-beta tech.</li> <li>If equities rally but yields do not fall meaningfully, the move may be vulnerable.</li> <li>Gold may be one of the cleaner beneficiaries if both the dollar and real yields move lower.</li> <li>The key message from a cool print: markets get breathing room, not a blank cheque.</li> </ul> <h2>CPI scenarios at a glance</h2> <table> <thead> <tr> <th ><strong><span class="underline; ">CPI outcome</span></strong></th> <th ><span class="underline; "><strong>Fed read-through</strong></span></th> <th ><span class="underline; "><strong>Likely market reaction</strong></span></th> <th ><strong><span class="underline; ">Trading focus</span></strong></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td ><strong>Hot CPI</strong></td> <td >Confirms sticky inflation and keeps the hawkish Fed repricing alive</td> <td >Yields higher, USD stronger, equities lower, gold pressured by higher real yields</td> <td >Watch Nasdaq downside, USD strength, 2-year Treasury futures and USDJPY intervention risk</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>In-line CPI</strong></td> <td >Avoids a fresh inflation shock, but does not give the Fed room to sound dovish</td> <td >Markets stay choppy, yields remain elevated, USD holds firm, equities struggle for conviction</td> <td >Range-trading setup; watch whether equities can hold the first bounce</td> </tr> <tr> <td ><strong>Cool CPI</strong></td> <td >Pushes back against the post-jobs hawkish repricing</td> <td >Yields lower, USD softer, equities rebound, gold supported</td> <td >Watch Nasdaq relief rally, gold upside and whether the US 500 confirms broader risk appetite</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <h2>How traders can position around CPI</h2> <p>The first rule is to avoid treating CPI as a one-way bet. The data can trigger sharp moves, but the first move is not always the final move.</p> <p>Traders using CFDs may prefer to define risk before the release, use smaller position sizes, and avoid adding aggressively into the first spike. CPI often creates a liquidity vacuum around the release, and spreads can widen. That means execution matters.</p> <ul data-spread="true"> <li>For traders with a hawkish CPI view: <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Short exposure to growth-heavy equity indices.</li> <li>Long USD positions.</li> <li>Bearish positioning in short-dated Treasury futures.</li> <li>Risk: any softer detail inside the report could quickly reverse the move.</li> </ul> </li> <li>For traders with a softer CPI view: <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Long exposure to Nasdaq-linked instruments.</li> <li>Long gold.</li> <li>Short USD positions.</li> <li>Risk: a relief rally may fade if traders decide one soft CPI print is not enough to change the Fed outlook.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p>For traders who do not want to take a view before the number, the better approach may be to wait for the post-CPI range to form. The first 30 minutes can often be noisy. A cleaner signal may come from whether equities hold their initial move, whether the dollar confirms the direction, and whether Treasury futures validate the Fed repricing.</p> <h2>Bottom line</h2> <p>This CPI report lands at an awkward time for markets.</p> <p>Friday’s jobs shock has already reminded traders that the US economy may still be too strong for the Fed to sound dovish. Now inflation needs to show whether price pressures are cooling enough to offset that message.</p> <p>A hot CPI print would keep the Fed hike debate alive and likely pressure equities, especially tech and AI-linked names. It would support the US dollar and put renewed pressure on Treasury futures.</p> <p>An in-line print may leave markets choppy, with traders unwilling to fully unwind hawkish Fed pricing.</p> <p>A cool CPI print could trigger a relief rally across equities, support gold and weaken the dollar. But it would not remove the bigger valuation debate around AI and growth stocks.</p> <p>For traders, CPI is not just an inflation number this week. It is a test of the entire post-jobs market setup.</p> <p>Stay tactical, respect volatility, and watch the confirmation across instruments: <strong>US Tech 100 NAS</strong>, <strong>US 500</strong>, <strong>2-Year Treasury futures</strong>, <strong>USDJPY</strong>, <strong>EURUSD</strong> and <strong>XAUUSD</strong>.</p> <p>The data will decide whether Friday was just a reset — or the start of a bigger repricing.</p> </span></p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Technology</span> <span></span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>CADUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XPTUSD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>USDSGD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 09 June, 2026</h1> <p>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 9 June, 2026</span></strong><span></span></p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>Iran and Israel halt attacks. Inflation expectations rise. </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Intel gains 11% after Alphabet orders 3M TPUs </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >Dollar slips; USDJPY hovers 160, AUD lags, risk sentiment firmer </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >WTI pares most of the gains retracing back towards $91 </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >2-year yield briefly hit 4.20%, its highest since February 2025 </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span> </span><span> </span> <em ><Table with Source></em><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong >Macro: </strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks,</span></strong><span> easing fears of a wider conflict and energy-driven inflation. President Donald Trump said both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final negotiations were progressing.</span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >US one-year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 3.5% in May from 3.6%.</strong><span > Consumers see slower price growth for gas, medical care, and college, but faster for homes, food, and rent. Three- and five-year expectations were steady at 3.1% and 3%. Expected earnings growth stayed at 2.7%, spending growth fell to 5%, and unemployment expectations edged down to 43.2%.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> Wall Street staged a recovery on Monday after Friday's sharp selloff. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,405.73 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%, its best day in over a week, led by a rebound in semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.6% after its biggest one-day drop since March 2020 on Friday.<strong> Intel rose 11.2% on a reported order from Alphabet for over 3 million TPUs.</strong> Micron gained 9.9% while Apple fell after its AI event revealed the new Siri AI. Brady Corp. tumbled as much as 17% after its CEO announced retirement. Financials underperformed, falling 0.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures are little changed in after-hours trade, with Asian futures pointing to a relief rally.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European stocks ended broadly flat to slightly lower on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1% to 621.73 as conflicting Middle East signals drove volatile intraday swings. The DAX fell 0.6% to 24,616 and the SMI dropped 0.5%. The FTSE 100 was little changed at 10,373.</span><strong > Zealand Pharma plunged 22.7% on competitive concerns over its weight-loss drugs, dragging Novo Nordisk down 4.2%</strong><span >. Banca Monte dei Paschi surged 12.2% after both Banco BPM and Intesa Sanpaolo reportedly made separate takeover bids. French broadcaster M6 rose as much as 12% on reports of a potential merger with TF1. Chemicals underperformed after Goldman Sachs downgraded the sector. AI hardware stocks bucked the trend, gaining ~1.8%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since March on Monday, led by a violent selloff in South Korea. </span><strong >The Kospi tumbled 8.3% as investors unwound crowded AI and semiconductor positions</strong><span >, with Samsung and SK Hynix among the largest drags. The Hang Seng fell 1.2% to 24,657, its lowest close since March 23, with Alibaba down 2.9% and Baidu dropping 7.6%. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost as much as 3.7%. The Straits Times Index dropped 1.7% to 4,963.67, its biggest decline since March 23, with SATS falling 3.3%. The CSI 300 declined 2.1%. South Korea unveiled emergency FX measures to stem won volatility.</span><strong > As of this morning, futures point to a sharp rebound — Nikkei futures up over 2% and Kospi futures up over 5%</strong><span > — as Middle East tensions ease and the US chip rally provides a tailwind.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Earnings this week:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>Tuesday: Casey’s General Stores, JM Smucker, SailPoint, Uranium Energy, Academy Sports </li> <li>Wednesday: Oracle, Core & Main, Chewy, Navan, Pennon Group </li> <li>Thursday: Chow Tai Fook, Adobe, Halma, Lennar, LPP, Do & Co </li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>USD </strong>softened slightly but remains higher month<span>‑</span>to<span>‑</span>date.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index briefly touched its highest level since April 7 — a two-month high — driven by strong US jobs data and hawkish Fed repricing, before paring gains as Iran-Israel ceasefire reports emerged.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >USDJPY</strong><span > is trading around 160.15–160.18, virtually at its 52</span><span >‑</span><span >week high of 160.44 and under persistent upward pressure; intervention risk from Japan is elevated.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >EURUSD</strong><span > edged up 0.11% to 1.1535 but remains in a month</span><span >‑</span><span >to</span><span >‑</span><span >date downtrend (</span><span >‑</span><span >1.09%). </span><strong >USDCAD</strong><span > closed at 1.3956, marking a fourth consecutive session of USD gains and the strongest NY close since December 4, 2025.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >AUDUSD</strong><span > is hovering near 0.7043 at a two</span><span >‑</span><span >month low after falling through its 100</span><span >‑</span><span >day moving average; traders are watching support at the March 30 low and a sizable A$752 million option expiry at 0.7050 today, amid concern that China</span><span >‑</span><span >related support for the AUD is quietly eroding. </span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Commodities:</strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Oil spikes on Middle East escalation, then pares:</strong> Brent crude surged as much as 5.4% to $98.08/bbl after Israel retaliated against Iranian missile attacks, before paring gains to around $94.70 as Iran signalled the military operation had ended. Oil volatility remains elevated as the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues to disrupt supply routes.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Gold loses safe-haven bid as yields rise:</strong><span > Gold fell 3.3% in the prior session and was trading near $4,325/oz, having broken below key long-term technical support. Rising real yields — the 10-year real yield rose to 2.18%, up 15bps this month — are increasingly weighing on bullion. Citi lowered its three-month gold price target to $4,000/oz from $4,300, citing rate-hike bets and softer physical demand.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Copper holds firm on AI demand:</strong><span > LME 3-month copper closed higher at $13,615.50/ton, supported by structural demand from AI data centre construction and power infrastructure buildout. Analysts note the metals rally is broadening as capital expenditure on AI accelerates.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US Treasury yields grind higher:</strong> The 10-year yield rose ~3bps to 4.556% and the 30-year yield climbed to 5.03%, holding above the key psychological level. The 2-year yield briefly touched 4.20% — its highest since February 2025 — before paring to ~4.16% on ceasefire reports. Yields remain elevated following Friday's strong jobs print, with 10-year real yields at a one-year closing high of 2.18%.<span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >JPMorgan raises 10-year yield forecast to 4.70%:</strong><span > JPMorgan strategists revised their year-end 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.70% from 4.50%, citing a resilient labour market and questions over whether current monetary policy is actually restrictive. The bank recommends staying short Treasuries versus Bunds.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >European bonds slip; ECB hike priced in:</strong><span > Bunds and Gilts edged lower as oil prices held gains and markets fully priced 25bps of ECB tightening for Thursday's meeting, with ~70bps of total hikes expected this year. Schroders is reportedly building a significantly overweight position in Italian BTPs at the expense of Treasuries and Bunds, citing Italy's relative political stability.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" >Inspiration</a><span >.</span><strong > </strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Options amplified Friday's selloff - 8 June 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 11:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Friday’s S&P 500 fell 2.64%. But VIX surged almost 40% on the same session - and that gap tells you everything about what happened beneath the surface. In today’s Options Brief, I look at the dealer gamma mechanics that turned a bad payrolls print and a Broadcom disappointment into a selloff that went further than fundamentals warranted.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Options amplified Friday’s selloff - 8 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>When dealer gamma mechanics turn a macro selloff into a cascade – and what that means for Monday.</em></p> <p>Friday’s 2.64% S&P 500 decline and 39.68% VIX spike were driven by a real macro catalyst, but in our view the options market amplified the move well beyond what fundamentals alone would have produced. This edition examines the dealer gamma mechanics behind Friday’s session, the market structure indicators that flagged the overshoot, and what the institutional bifurcation in options flow may mean for Monday’s open.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>May payrolls printed at 172,000 on Friday, more than double the 80,000 consensus, pushing Treasury yields sharply higher and reviving rate-hike fears. Broadcom’s failure to raise its AI chip outlook sent semiconductors sharply lower, erasing over $1 trillion in sector market value. The Monday setup carries an added complication: Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel overnight Sunday, breaking a fragile ceasefire and sending oil more than 4% higher in Asian trading while South Korea’s KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker at -8.4%.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p>The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,383.74 (-2.64%), the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.77% to 28,957.60, and the Russell 2000 dropped 3.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,872 (-1.35%). The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.576%. Heading into Monday’s session, WTI crude is up 4.42% to $94.54 on the Iran escalation, while S&P 500 futures point to a 0.16% additional decline and Nasdaq 100 futures indicate a 0.10% further drop, a notable divergence from the KOSPI’s 8.4% circuit-breaker collapse.</p> <p><strong>Market regime:</strong> Neutral/Chop – VIX 21.51 (Friday close), 20-day realised vol 13.2% (increasing), S&P 500 +3.18% above its 50-day moving average.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 5 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <p>Single-name confirmed-opening flow leaned selectively constructive in mega-cap technology, with upside structures in leading semiconductor names suggesting a portion of institutional money was positioning for recovery rather than bracing for further capitulation. Index and broad equity ETF put demand was heavy and clustered around upcoming inflation data and the June Federal Reserve meeting window, while cross-asset hedging in precious metals, credit, and energy reinforced a read of systematic portfolio risk reduction rather than outright directional selling.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle – the dealer gamma dynamic</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed Friday at 21.51, a 39.68% single-session spike. That kind of move does not emerge from news-driven selling alone. To understand why Friday was as severe as it was, the options market mechanics are worth examining in some detail.</p> <p>When market participants buy puts at scale, the dealers who sell those contracts are left short gamma. As the underlying falls, their negative delta exposure grows, forcing them to sell futures or the underlying asset to stay hedged. That selling pushes the market lower, which triggers more hedging, which pushes it lower again. At sufficient scale, this feedback loop can significantly amplify a move that fundamental sellers alone would not have driven as far.</p> <p>Friday’s flow data shows this dynamic at work. The most revealing figures are not the index closing levels but the relationship between single-session contract volume and prior open interest on key short-dated index ETF puts.</p> <p>In one S&P 500 ETF expiry sitting directly on the date of Wednesday’s May CPI release, daily put volume reached more than 83,000 contracts against standing open interest of just 1,356. Since daily volume at that level can only be sustained if a substantial proportion of it represents new positions being opened, virtually all of that activity was fresh institutional demand. In short-dated Nasdaq 100 ETF puts capturing the Federal Reserve meeting window, volumes of roughly 37,000 and 33,000 contracts printed against prior open interest of 31,557 and 30,676 respectively. In the small-cap ETF, a single put cluster printed 66,647 contracts against prior open interest of 13,069.</p> <p>These are not hedge rolls or adjustments to existing positions. They represent fresh put demand landing on dealers who had no choice but to immediately sell index futures to manage the resulting delta exposure. Into a session already soft on the jobs number and the Broadcom disappointment, that additional selling pressure compounded the move in a way that a purely macro-driven day would not have.</p> <p>The timing amplified the effect further. The largest confirmed-opening blocks clustered in the final 45 minutes of the session. Dealers absorbing that put paper into the close, with no overnight hedging window and a full weekend of geopolitical uncertainty ahead, had to bid up implied volatility sharply while simultaneously selling delta. That is a significant reason why VIX rose 39.68% on a session where the S&P 500 itself moved 2.64%: the implied-volatility bid was partly a dealer response to their own inventory risk, not solely a fear signal from end investors.<br /> <br /> <br /> <em>Fresh put demand can do more than signal investor fear. When dealers are left short gamma, their hedging activity can reinforce selling pressure, helping explain why volatility may rise faster than the underlying market falls. - Source: Saxo</em></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle – what the market structure indicators show</strong></h2> <p>Three readings from Friday illustrate how structurally unusual the session was.</p> <p><strong>SKEW</strong> closed at 152.25, up 7.11% on the day. The CBOE SKEW index measures the relative cost of out-of-the-money downside protection versus at-the-money options. A normal reading sits in the 110–120 range; readings above 140 are materially elevated. At 152.25, the market was pricing severe left-tail risk at a level consistent with genuine institutional concern about a disorderly move, not routine end-of-week hedging.</p> <p><strong>VVIX</strong>, the volatility-of-volatility index, closed at 102.04, up 19% on the session. When VVIX trades above 100, options on the VIX itself are expensive, meaning the market is not only positioned defensively but is uncertain about how defensive it may need to become. A reading at this level reflects second-order fear: uncertainty about the uncertainty itself.</p> <p>Three-month implied correlation (<strong>COR3M</strong>) rose 38.51% to 12.23. When implied correlation spikes, individual stocks are expected to move as a bloc rather than on their own fundamentals. That is the signature of a systematic risk-off event, not a sector-specific repricing. It confirms that dealers were pricing market-wide risk, not isolated weakness in semiconductors.</p> <p><strong>Put/call ratios</strong> across equity indices and single names spiked 20–30% during the session, with the equity put/call ratio reaching 0.841 and the index put/call ratio reaching 1.31. Historically, readings at these levels have been more frequently associated with short-term selling exhaustion than with the beginning of sustained downtrends, though they are sentiment indicators and require price confirmation before they carry any directional weight.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle – the bifurcation</strong></h2> <p>One aspect of Friday that the headline numbers do not capture is that the same session generating all of the above also saw substantial confirmed-opening upside call positioning in leading semiconductor names. Tens of thousands of call contracts opened in structured upside packages in NVDA and TSM, consistent with longer-dated recovery positioning by portfolio-level investors, not short-term speculation. Defensive-sector ETFs saw call demand alongside the broader market put activity.</p> <p><strong>Pure capitulation is one-directional. What Friday’s flow shows instead is institutional bifurcation</strong>: the risk management desk hedging aggressively into the weekend while the portfolio management desk was adding upside convexity at lower prices, the two running simultaneously.</p> <p>In our view, that pattern is meaningful for the Monday question. A genuine fundamental re-rating of growth expectations, where investors are abandoning positions outright, does not produce this kind of two-sided institutional activity. A mechanically amplified selloff, where the initial catalyst is real but dealer gamma mechanics extend the move beyond where fundamentals alone would clear, more often does. Mechanically amplified selloffs have historically tended to overshoot the fundamental clearing level, though past patterns are not a reliable guide to future outcomes and this is not a prediction of a rebound.</p> <p>That distinction carries some weight when interpreting the contrarian signals now present: the inverted VIX term structure, the put/call extremes, and front-month VIX futures sitting at 19.51, well below the spot VIX of 21.51. These are not buy signals. They are evidence that the options market’s own mechanics contributed materially to Friday’s severity, which in turn suggests the fundamental case for lower prices may have been overpriced during Friday’s close.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Friday’s selloff was driven by a real macro catalyst, but in our view the options market amplified the move well beyond what fundamentals alone would have produced. The dealer gamma dynamic, the late-session institutional put clustering, and the extreme readings in SKEW, VVIX, and implied correlation all point to a session that mechanically overshot. Whether that overshoot corrects today depends on two variables that were not present on Friday: the Iran geopolitical premium, which has added fresh risk, and the absence of fresh systematic put demand at the open, which would be the signal that the cascade is resuming rather than exhausted. Market outcomes are inherently uncertain and today’s first hour carries significant informational weight.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---broadcom-shock-rotation-wins---5-june-2026-05062026" data-id="81DDFDAFDFB2403A83DD2DB2B35A9D63" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Broadcom shock rotation wins - 5 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-oil-swing-dow-record---28-may-2026-28052026" data-id="F4B69C48DD584E45A4C99EE42EEF1723" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran oil swing Dow record - 28 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---nasdaq-clears-30000---27-may-2026-27052026" data-id="70ECD5D1214E4CF5A77A108317853F86" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Nasdaq clears 30000 - 27 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---hormuz-hopes-douse-oil---26-may-2026-26052026" data-id="10922CCA41E44E2A89A767DE44FC5C4C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Hormuz hopes douse oil - 26 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>European banks: the boring shelter trade is suddenly interesting</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 09:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>European banks offer exposure to today’s profits,</strong> not only tomorrow’s promises.</span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong></strong><span ><strong>Italy’s deal wave shows banks are using stronger balance sheets</strong> to reshape the industry.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ></span><span ><strong>Banks can be a shelter</strong>, but not a bunker. </span><span >Credit risk still matters.</span></span></p> </span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite party guest. It arrives late, talks loudly and somehow still gets invited back. But last Friday, the mood changed. AI-linked stocks sold off sharply, led by semiconductors and high-growth technology names, as investors questioned whether expectations had run too far ahead of profits.</span></p> <p><span>That does not mean the AI story is broken. It means investors are checking the price tag.</span></p> <p><span>In that setting, European banks suddenly look more interesting. Not because they are exciting. That would be a stretch, and possibly a compliance issue. They matter because they are tied to simpler things: interest rates, deposits, loans, capital returns and mergers. In a market that is asking whether AI spending can justify high valuations, banks offer something different: cash flows that are easier to see and businesses that benefit from a more normal interest-rate world.</span></p> <p><span>The timing is useful. Europe’s banking sector has already enjoyed a major rerating after years in the market basement. Now the latest burst of dealmaking, especially in Italy, gives the story a new engine.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The shelter trade, not the superhero trade</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Banks make money mainly by taking deposits and lending money at a higher rate. The difference is called net interest income. In plain English, it is the spread between what a bank pays savers and what it earns from borrowers.</span></p> <p><span>For years, European banks struggled because interest rates were too low. That made lending less profitable and left investors wondering whether banks had become utilities with worse public relations. Higher rates changed that. Banks could earn more on loans, while credit losses stayed contained. At the same time, many lenders built stronger capital buffers. Capital is the bank’s shock absorber. The thicker it is, the better the bank can survive trouble.</span></p> <p><span>This is why banks can look like a shelter when technology becomes shaky. AI-heavy stocks often depend on large future profits. When interest-rate expectations rise, those future profits become less attractive in today’s money. Banks, by contrast, tend to be judged more on current earnings, dividends, buybacks and credit quality.</span></p> <p><span>That does not make banks safe. It makes them different. For a diversified portfolio, different can be valuable. A portfolio made only of high-growth technology is like a house with one very powerful radiator. Nice in winter, risky in summer.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Italy is back in the dealing room</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The clearest sign of renewed confidence is Italy. According to Bloomberg, Intesa Sanpaolo has launched a 30.6 billion EUR offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena, a bank that once stood for Italy’s banking problems. That alone says something about how far the sector has moved.</span></p> <p><span>The proposed deal is not just about buying more branches. It is about scale, market share, wealth management and influence across Italian finance. Intesa would strengthen its home position, while parts of Monte Paschi would be sold to Unipol and potentially combined with BPER Banca. This kind of structure is designed to address competition concerns, because regulators do not want one bank to become too dominant.</span></p> <p><span>Italy’s banking map is now busy. Banco BPM has also explored a tie-up with Monte Paschi. UniCredit has tried to expand through Banco BPM and Commerzbank. Monte Paschi previously bought Mediobanca, bringing the Generali insurance stake into the wider chessboard.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the lesson is simple. Bank mergers can create value if they remove duplicate costs, improve funding and give the combined group better scale. But they can destroy value if buyers overpay, cultures clash or regulators force awkward compromises. Banking mergers are not magic. They are plumbing, paperwork and politics, with a spreadsheet attached.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Why deals matter for investors</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The deal wave tells us three things.</span></p> <p><span>First, management teams believe their balance sheets are strong enough to act. Banks usually do not pursue large deals when they are worried about survival.</span></p> <p><span>Second, the sector is looking for growth in a mature market. Europe does not need thousands of small branches doing similar things. Consolidation can help banks spread technology costs over more customers and improve efficiency.</span></p> <p><span>Third, banks are trying to become broader financial platforms. The real prize is often not plain lending. It is insurance, asset management, payments and wealth services. These businesses can generate fee income, which is less dependent on interest-rate spreads.</span></p> <p><span>This is also why banks are attracting attention when AI becomes volatile. They are not immune to technology disruption, but their immediate earnings drivers are more grounded. A bank does not need a trillion-dollar data-centre buildout to explain next year’s dividend.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The cracks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>There are three main risks.</span></p> <p><span>The first is interest rates. If rates fall too quickly, banks may earn less from lending. If rates rise too much, borrowers may struggle and bad loans can increase. Banks like balance. Too hot or too cold, and the porridge starts complaining.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is deal execution. Italian consolidation looks exciting, but regulators, politicians and minority shareholders all have a say. Cross-border deals are even harder, as UniCredit’s pursuit of Commerzbank shows. National pride is not an accounting line, but it can still move markets.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is hidden credit exposure. European banks have used more significant risk transfer (SRT) deals, where banks pass part of loan-loss risk to outside investors. These tools can free up capital, but they also add complexity. If credit losses rise, investors will want to know where the risk really sits.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Treat banks as cyclical income exposure</strong>, not as bond substitutes.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Watch credit quality, deposit costs, capital ratios and net interest</strong> margins.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Separate deal excitement from actual value creation </strong>and integration risk.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Avoid making one country, one bank or one theme </strong>carry the whole portfolio.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The useful kind of boring</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Friday’s AI wobble reminds investors that even strong themes can become crowded. European banks offer a useful contrast. They are not as glamorous as chips, cloud platforms or robot assistants that may one day answer emails we did not want to write anyway. But they are tied to today’s economy, today’s rates and today’s capital returns.</span></p> <p><span>That makes them a potential shelter when growth stocks shake. It does not make them risk-free. Shelters still need doors, windows and regular inspections. For investors, the point is not to swap one obsession for another. It is to build a portfolio where every part does a different job, especially when the market stops pretending the weather is always sunny.</span></p> <p><em > This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <span> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p> <p><em>The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication</em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>COT update: Gold breaks down as crowded commodity longs continue to unwind</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 2 June 2026</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span >Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><span>Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 2 June 2026.</span></li> <li>In FX, speculators carried out a notable rotation into the EUR, CHF and GBP at the expense of the JPY, AUD and, in particular, the CAD.</li> <li>Speculators continued to aggressively reduce long exposure across grains, sugar and lean hogs, with the combined agricultural net long almost halving from last month's four-year high. </li> <li>Before slipping below key support on Friday, gold had seen renewed demand while HG copper's net long reached a five-year high, leaving both markets exposed to sharp moves.</li> <li>Brent crude longs fell to a four-month low on expectations of eventual Middle East supply normalization while a tightening US supply outlook underpinned WTI demand.</li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Forex:</h3> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p data-start="374" data-end="775"><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span>In FX, the week to 2 June showed little change at the aggregate level, with the gross long USD position against eight IMM currency futures holding steady at USD 16.6 billion as the dollar traded broadly unchanged.</span></p> <p><span>Beneath the surface, however, notable rotation took place. Strong buying of the EUR, and to a lesser extent the CHF and GBP, was offset by continued selling of the JPY, AUD, and especially the CAD. As a result, the speculative net short in the Japanese yen climbed to a fresh 22-month high of 130,000 contracts, equivalent to around USD 10 billion, this despite repeated intervention warnings from Japanese authorities.</span></p> </span></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Latest on gold following Friday's slump</h3> <p class="text--body">Gold has been trending lower since mid-April amid an energy-driven inflation scare. Following Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a broader deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on equities, bullion closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023.<br /> <br /> F<span >or now, a combination of resilient economic growth, elevated inflation expectations, higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates in 2026 has created a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing longer-term supportive themes such as central bank buying, fiscal debt concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <p>Market participants may now monitor the USD 4,100–4,075 support zone, which marks both the March correction low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022–2026 rally. On the upside, resistance may emerge at USD 4,432 (200-day moving average), USD 4,490 (recent high), and USD 4,635 (channel resistance).</p> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Gold under pressure from rate hike risks, as well as bond yields and dollar strength - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Commodities </h3> <p>Returning to the latest COT report, the most notable development during the reporting week to 2 June, when the Bloomberg Commodity Index traded broadly unchanged, was continued and aggressive long liquidation across agriculture, led by the three major grain crops as well as sugar and lean hogs.</p> <p>In energy, traders continued to position for a potential easing of the Middle East supply disruption, a development that could initially unleash a surge of supply from vessels currently trapped in the Persian Gulf. This expectation was most clearly reflected in Brent crude, where the net long fell to a four-month low of 253,000 contracts. WTI, meanwhile, continued to find support from persistent draws in US crude inventories.</p> <p>In metals, a sharp reduction in gross short positions combined with fresh long buying left gold increasingly vulnerable to a technical setback once key support levels gave way. That vulnerability was exposed on Friday when bullion broke below its 200-day moving average and recorded its first close beneath the trend indicator since October 2023. Silver, platinum, and palladium attracted relatively limited interest during the week. In copper, meanwhile, tariff-related demand for COMEX futures helped lift the net long in HG copper to a more than five-year high, leaving the market exposed to profit-taking during the latest correction. Selling accelerated on Friday before buyers re-emerged ahead of key support around USD 6.15 per pound.</p> <p>Agriculture experienced the most widespread liquidation. Since reaching a four-year high last month, the combined net long across 13 major agricultural futures contracts has almost halved, driven primarily by a two-thirds reduction in bullish positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat, led by corn. After reaching a two-and-a-half-year high last month, the Bloomberg Grains Index has fallen around 12% amid incoming harvest pressure on wheat and generally favourable US growing conditions that have improved production prospects for both corn and soybeans. The decline has undoubtedly been amplified by speculative long liquidation, particularly in corn and soybeans.</p> <p>Elsewhere, the cocoa net short rose to its largest level since November 2022 at 21,000 contracts, while the Arabica coffee net long was reduced to a December 2023 low of just 12,000 contracts. Finally, lean hogs flipped to a net short position for the first time in two years.<br /> <br /> <em>"The latest report once again highlights how crowded positioning in selected markets left prices vulnerable to sharp moves once key technical levels gave way later in the week."</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money positions across key commodity futures in the week to 2 June 2026 - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Energy</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Metals</div><br/><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Agriculture</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that this group tends to <span>anticipate</span>,<span> accelerate</span>, and <span>amplify</span> price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>4 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/copper-rally-faces-tariff-roulette-but-fundamentals-remain-tight-04062026" data-id="709882EC371D48F8997BBDC6857538CD" data-type="Article">Copper rally faces tariff roulette but fundamentals remain tight</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> 30 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rises-with-oil-as-geopolitical-risk-overwhelms-rate-headwinds-30042026" data-id="913BF947FC8F4E0B9FEEC4B848C64291" data-type="Article">Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds</a><br /> 29 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rally-extends-as-strait-disruption-continues-opecs-role-tested-after-uae-exit-29042026" data-id="DC861D31F2184DABB42FFCF9A7E4B68D" data-type="Article">Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit</a><br /> 28 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-face-near-term-pressure-from-oil-driven-inflation-28042026" data-id="AED8E78ECFE845F2B0244ECDB755536D" data-type="Article">Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation</a><br /> 27 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-21-april-2026-27042026" data-id="DE3EE59CB5414C169CCC0958EC816D81" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026</a><br /> 24 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-from-fuel-shortages-to-food-risks-as-hormuz-remains-shut-24042026" data-id="4EC56C4426EC47F090B8C97C9E000F79" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut</a><br /> 22 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/severe-supply-disruption-meets-rising-demand-destruction-as-hormuz-closure-persists-22042026" data-id="FE10F88674FE4991B61D00AEB7CE02FE" data-type="Article">Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists</a><br /> 20 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-14-april-2026-20042026" data-id="E4554C47A3504722A360A2E0F2D0AF3F" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026</a><br /> 14 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-rebuild-as-macro-tailwinds-return-but-gold-awaits-breakout-confirmation-14042026" data-id="CC221C7482B44642AEDE03ECC2A4A592" data-type="Article">Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation</a><br /> 13 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-april-7-2026-13042026" data-id="D60285173A49405CBDCE019B12A938CE" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026</a><br /> 10 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-slumps-but-physical-oil-stress-keeps-the-market-on-edge-10042026" data-id="A3E5D752C7A442C0BA0D67A83BB2297B" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge</a><br /> 9 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rebounds-toward-usd-100-as-hormuz-bottlenecks-keep-physical-market-tight-09042026" data-id="F68C59DB02D5473981BBDC3918E54CD9" data-type="Article">Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight</a><br /> 8 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-correction-meets-macro-reset-as-ceasefire-reverses-key-headwinds-08042026" data-id="5683DD1DFE9644358327272CF413C860" data-type="Article">Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/europes-gas-market-shifts-from-stress-to-relief-but-the-real-test-still-lies-ahead-07042026" data-id="FE54A383A20F4C8988662C4818F003CC" data-type="Article">Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/wti-above-brent-a-curve-distortion-not-a-benchmark-inversion-07042026" data-id="529398E9941F47708FE4F9C3F93EAC27" data-type="Article">WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-31-march-2026-07042026" data-id="CF175C3924F7492FA84FC81B4EBFEEEA" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Forex</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Trump Version 2 - Traders</span> <span>CZ ESMA disclaimer</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI selloff: Screening for quality tech stocks after the reset</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 06:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>The AI selloff has raised the bar for stock selection.</span></strong><span> The opportunity is not simply in buying what fell the most, but in finding companies where the price has reset while business quality, AI monetisation and valuation support remain intact. </span></li> <li><strong><span>The screen favours quality-growth tech with real AI relevance.</span></strong><span> It filters for strong revenue and EPS growth, healthy margins, positive free cash flow, low leverage, valuation discipline and a meaningful pullback from highs. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Micron, Nvidia and Microsoft rank highest in the model.</span></strong><span> Micron benefits from the HBM bottleneck, Nvidia remains the clearest AI revenue engine, and Microsoft offers diversified AI exposure through cloud, Copilot and enterprise software.</span></li> </ul> <p><span></span></p> <hr /> <p> </p> <p><span >The AI selloff has made stock selection more important. The opportunity is not simply in buying what fell the most, but in identifying companies where the share price has corrected while business quality, AI monetisation and valuation support remain intact.</span></p> <p><span>The recent selloff in AI-linked stocks has raised a familiar question for investors: <strong>is this a buying opportunity, or a warning sign?</strong></span></p> <p><span>The answer is unlikely to be the same for every stock.</span></p> <p><span>A broad “buy the dip” approach can be risky when valuations are still elevated, earnings expectations are high, and many investors are crowded into the same AI winners. The better approach is to screen for companies where the <strong>price has reset, but the business case has not broken</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>This screener is designed to identify US-listed technology stocks with strong growth, healthy margins, positive free cash flow, manageable leverage and a meaningful pullback from recent highs.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <hr /> <p> </p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Screening criteria used</span></h2> <p><span>The first step is to create a quality-growth universe. The screen uses the following criteria:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>US-listed technology stocks</span></strong><span>: Keeps the focus on the part of the market most exposed to the AI-driven selloff. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Market cap above USD 10 billion: </span></strong><span>Filters for larger, more liquid companies and avoids highly speculative smaller names. </span></li> <li><strong><span>5-year revenue CAGR above 10%: </span></strong><span>Looks for companies with a track record of sustained top-line growth. </span></li> <li><strong><span>5-year diluted EPS CAGR above 12%: </span></strong><span>Ensures growth has translated into earnings, not just sales. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Next-year sales growth above 15%: </span></strong><span>Helps identify companies where forward growth momentum remains visible. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Forward gross margin above 40%: </span></strong><span>Screens for higher-quality technology businesses with pricing power, differentiated products or scalable models. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Net debt/EBITDA below 1x: </span></strong><span>Avoids companies with high balance-sheet risk, which matters more when volatility rises. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Positive trailing 12-month free cash flow: </span></strong><span>Important because investors are increasingly questioning whether AI investment can be funded sustainably. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Share price below 90% of its 52-week high: </span></strong><span>Ensures the stock has actually corrected and is not still sitting near peak optimism. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Forward P/E below 55x: </span></strong><span>Adds valuation discipline and avoids names still priced for perfection. </span></li> </ul> <p><span>This is not a deep-value screen. It is a <strong>quality-growth pullback screen</strong>. The goal is to find companies where the market has reset expectations, but the fundamentals may still be intact.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>The 12 stocks that passed the screen</span></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Nvidia (NVDA)</span></strong><span>: The leading AI chip company. Nvidia is central to AI compute demand through GPUs, data-centre platforms and AI infrastructure. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Microsoft (MSFT): </span></strong><span>A cloud and software leader. Its AI exposure comes through Azure, Copilot, enterprise software and productivity tools. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Micron (MU): </span></strong><span>A memory semiconductor company. Micron is increasingly important to the AI supply chain because high-bandwidth memory is a key bottleneck for AI workloads. </span></li> <li><strong><span>KLA Corp (KLAC): </span></strong><span>A semiconductor equipment company focused on process control, inspection and metrology for advanced chip manufacturing. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Marvell Technology (MRVL): </span></strong><span>A semiconductor company exposed to custom silicon, data-centre connectivity and networking chips. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Arista Networks (ANET): </span></strong><span>A cloud networking company providing high-performance networking equipment for hyperscalers and data centres. </span></li> <li><strong><span>ServiceNow (NOW): </span></strong><span>An enterprise software company helping businesses automate workflows, with AI increasingly embedded into its platform. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Lumentum (LITE): </span></strong><span>An optical networking company providing components used in cloud and AI data-centre connectivity. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Teradyne (TER): </span></strong><span>A semiconductor test equipment company exposed to testing demand for advanced chips, AI compute and memory. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Nova (NVMI): </span></strong><span>A semiconductor metrology company providing process-control tools used in advanced chip manufacturing. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Onto Innovation (ONTO): </span></strong><span>A semiconductor equipment company exposed to inspection, metrology and advanced packaging, including AI-related chip manufacturing. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Guidewire Software (GWRE): </span></strong><span>A cloud software company serving the insurance industry, with AI optionality but less direct AI monetisation than infrastructure names.</span></li> </ul> <span></span> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Post-selloff AI quality score</span></h2> <p><span>After identifying the 12-stock universe, the next step is to rank the names.</span></p> <p><span>The model uses four factors and a total score of 100 points.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>1. Business quality — 30%</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This captures whether the company is fundamentally strong enough to deserve a second look after the selloff.</span></p> <p><span>The sub-factors include:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>5-year revenue CAGR</span></li> <li><span>5-year diluted EPS CAGR </span></li> <li><span>Next-year sales growth </span></li> <li><span>Gross margin </span></li> <li><span>Net debt/EBITDA </span></li> <li><span>Free cash flow yield</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>2. AI monetisation engine — 30%</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This is the manual overlay.</span></p> <p><span>It asks: <strong>is AI already showing up in revenue, backlog, orders, cloud usage, pricing power or customer adoption?</strong></span></p> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>Stock</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p ><strong><span>AI score /5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Rationale</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>NVDA</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>5.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Direct AI compute revenue engine</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>MSFT</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>5.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>AI demand visible through cloud and enterprise software</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>MU</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>5.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>HBM and advanced memory are clear AI bottlenecks</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>MRVL</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>4.5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Custom AI silicon and data-centre connectivity</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>ANET</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>4.5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>AI networking demand</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>LITE</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>4.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Optical connectivity for AI data centres</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>TER</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>4.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>AI compute and memory testing</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>KLAC</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>4.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Process control for advanced chip manufacturing</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>ONTO</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>3.5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Advanced packaging and HBM-linked exposure</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>NVMI</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>3.5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Metrology for advanced DRAM and semis</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>NOW</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>3.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>Enterprise AI adoption, less direct revenue visibility</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>GWRE</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>2.0</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p ><span>Cloud software compounder with AI optionality</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>3. Valuation improvement — 20%</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This factor measures whether the selloff has created better valuation support.</span></p> <p><span>To make the valuation score more robust, I would combine:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Absolute valuation: forward P/E</span></strong><span> </span></li> <ul > <li><span>Lower forward P/E scores higher. </span></li> <li><span>This captures whether the stock is still priced for perfection. </span></li> </ul> <li><strong><span>Relative valuation: P/E Z-score versus 5-year history</span></strong><span> </span></li> <ul > <li><span>A negative Z-score means the stock is trading below its own 5-year average valuation. </span></li> <li><span>A positive Z-score means the stock is still trading above its own 5-year average valuation. </span></li> <li><span>This helps identify where the valuation reset is actually meaningful.</span></li> </ul> </ul> <p><span>Suggested valuation scoring</span></p> <p><span>A. Forward P/E score — 50% of valuation score</span></p> <ul > <li><span>P/E below 15x = 5 </span></li> <li><span>15–25x = 4.5 </span></li> <li><span>25–35x = 4 </span></li> <li><span>35–45x = 3.5 </span></li> <li><span>Above 45x = 3 </span></li> </ul> <p><span>B. Relative P/E Z-score — 50% of valuation score</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Z-score below -1.5 = 5 </span></li> <li><span>-1.5 to -0.5 = 4.5 </span></li> <li><span>-0.5 to +0.5 = 4 </span></li> <li><span>+0.5 to +1.5 = 3.5 </span></li> <li><span>Above +1.5 = 3 </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Combined valuation formula</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Valuation score = Forward P/E score × 50% + Relative P/E Z-score × 50%</span></strong></p> <p><span>Then this combined valuation score feeds into the overall model at a <strong>20% weight</strong>.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>4. Correction from high — 20%</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This uses the field: <strong>price as a percentage of 52-week high</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The lower the number, the bigger the correction.</span></p> <p><span>Suggested scoring:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Down more than 40% = 5 </span></li> <li><span>Down 25–40% = 4.5 </span></li> <li><span>Down 20–25% = 4 </span></li> <li><span>Down 15–20% = 3.5 </span></li> <li><span>Down 10–15% = 3 </span></li> </ul> <p><span>This gives credit to stocks where the valuation reset has been more meaningful.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Overall Scoring formula</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The final score is a <strong>weighted average</strong>, not a simple average.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Total score =</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Business quality × 30%</span></strong></li> <li><strong><span></span></strong><strong >AI monetisation engine × 30%</strong></li> <li><strong ></strong><strong >Valuation improvement × 20%</strong></li> <li><strong ></strong><strong >Correction from high × 20%</strong></li> </ul> <p><span>This matters because not all factors should carry the same importance. After an AI selloff, business quality and actual AI monetisation should matter more than just how far a stock has fallen.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Indicative ranking from the 12-stock list</span></h2> <table border="0" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="0" > <thead> <tr> <td> <p ><strong><span>Rank</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Stock</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Business<br /> quality /5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>AI engine /5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Valuation /5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Correction /5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>Weighted Average /5</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>1</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>MU</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>5.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.25</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.58</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>2</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>NVDA</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.73</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>5.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.47</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>3</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>MSFT</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.63</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>5.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.34</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>4</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>NOW</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.30</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>5.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.14</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>5</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>ANET</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.33</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>6</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>MRVL</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.10</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.88</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>7</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>TER</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.68</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.25</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.65</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>8</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>ONTO</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.68</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.75</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.60</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>9</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>KLAC</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.78</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.25</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.58</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>10</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>LITE</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.35</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.61</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>11</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>NVMI</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.03</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.25</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.50</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.56</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p><strong><span>12</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><strong><span>GWRE</span></strong></p> </td> <td > <p><span>3.85</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>2.00</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>4.00*</span></p> </td> <td > <p><span>5.00</span></p> </td> <td> <p ><span>3.55</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span >*Guidewire has no relative P/E Z-score available in the screen, so the valuation score uses only its forward P/E for now. A neutral relative valuation score could also be used.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What the ranking suggests</span></h2> <p><span>The model still puts <strong>Micron, Nvidia and Microsoft</strong> at the top because they combine strong business quality with clear AI monetisation and reasonable valuation support after the selloff.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Micron</span></strong><span> screens especially well because AI is not just about compute. It is also about memory bandwidth, and HBM remains one of the clearest bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure chain. That gives Micron a stronger AI monetisation profile than a traditional memory-cycle label would suggest.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Nvidia</span></strong><span> remains one of the strongest AI revenue engines in the market. The correction from highs is less dramatic than some other names, but its business quality and direct AI monetisation visibility remain exceptional. Its negative relative valuation Z-score also suggests the stock has become more reasonable versus its own history. The key risk is that expectations are still high, so earnings will need to keep supporting the valuation.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Microsoft</span></strong><span> offers a more diversified AI exposure through cloud, enterprise software and productivity tools. It is less directly cyclical than semiconductors, while still offering exposure to AI adoption through Azure, Copilot and enterprise software demand. Its relative valuation also looks more supportive after the reset.</span></p> <p><span>The next group — <strong>Arista, Marvell, Teradyne, KLA, Nova, Onto Innovation and Lumentum</strong> — represents the broader AI infrastructure chain. These companies are exposed to networking, custom silicon, semiconductor testing, metrology, optical connectivity and advanced chip manufacturing.</span></p> <p><span>This is important because the AI trade is not only about GPUs. AI infrastructure also needs memory, networking, testing, inspection, packaging and data-centre connectivity.</span></p> <p><strong><span>ServiceNow and Guidewire</span></strong><span> are more software-led stories. ServiceNow has a credible enterprise AI adoption angle and a meaningful correction from highs, but investors may want more evidence that AI is driving revenue, upsell or margin expansion. Guidewire is more of a cloud software compounder with AI optionality, rather than a direct AI monetisation engine.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Risks to watch</span></h2> <p><span>There are still important risks.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Earnings expectations may still be too high</span></strong><span>: Some AI leaders may need to deliver very strong results simply to justify current valuations. </span></li> <li><strong><span>AI capex could slow or shift: </span></strong><span>If hyperscalers change spending plans, parts of the AI infrastructure chain could reprice quickly. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Correlations can rise again: </span></strong><span>Even diversified AI infrastructure names may sell off together if the AI trade unwinds further. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Valuation reset does not always mean cheap: </span></strong><span>A stock can be down from its highs and still be expensive. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Software AI monetisation needs proof: </span></strong><span>Companies with strong AI narratives but limited financial evidence may remain vulnerable. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Macro and geopolitical risks remain relevant: </span></strong><span>Higher yields, Fed repricing, energy volatility or geopolitical shocks can keep pressure on long-duration growth stocks.</span></li> </ul> <span></span> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Bottom line</span></h2> <p><span>The selloff has created a more interesting entry point in parts of technology, but it has also raised the bar for stock selection.</span></p> <p><span>The best post-selloff candidates are not necessarily the stocks that have fallen the most. They are the ones where: <strong>price has corrected, but earnings power, business quality and AI monetisation remain intact.</strong></span></p> <p><span>This screener highlights a useful watchlist across AI compute, cloud, memory, networking, optical infrastructure, semiconductor equipment and selected software names.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, the next phase of the AI trade may be less about owning everything with an AI label — and more about identifying the companies that are actually monetising the buildout.<br /> <br /> </span></p> <hr /> <p> </p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>UKMustRead</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 8 June 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 06:28:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 8 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities:</strong> US tech led the selloff, Europe held up better, while Asia saw heavy pressure in chip-heavy markets.</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX +39.7%, CPI/PPI ahead, Middle East tensions, downside skew</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin rebounds, ETF outflows, defensive positioning</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income:</strong> US treasury yields rose to highest level in more than a year at front-end of yield curve on strong US jobs report</li> <li><strong>Currencies:</strong> USD surged Friday to highest levels since early April on strong US jobs report</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Gold breaks key support on inflation and rate fears; oil underpinned by renewed Middle East tensions</li> <li><strong>Macro events:</strong> Germany Apr. Factory Orders</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro headlines</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Israel struck several military targets in Iran, retaliating after Iran launched missile barrages toward Israel</strong>, warning against action in Lebanon and straining a fragile ceasefire. Israel said all were intercepted with no casualties. Donald Trump reportedly criticized Israel’s Beirut strikes, urged Netanyahu not to retaliate, and pressed Iran to resume talks. The exchange is one of the most serious tests of a ceasefire that took effect on April 8 to halt fighting involving the US, Israel and Iran</li> <li><strong>South Korean stocks, the posterchild of AI concentration risk tumbled more than 8%</strong>, extending a three-day decline to 13.5%, as investors pulled back from AI bets that have fuelled the global bull market in equities. The benchmark later narrowed its drop as memory makers Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. rebounded from session lows</li> <li><strong>Japan's real GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 1.8%</strong> in the first quarter, down from an initial reading of 2.1%. The rate which beat forecasts still points to a largely resilient economy supported by solid consumer spending and trade, with demand for artificial intelligence-related products providing a key boost for exports.</li> <li><strong>The US added 172K jobs in May 2026, beating 85K forecasts</strong> and following a revised 179K gain. Leisure and hospitality, local government, health care, and manufacturing added jobs, while financial activities lost 22K. Revisions raised March–April employment by 93K, underscoring labor market resilience.</li> <li><strong>The US unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in May 2026, as expected</strong>. Unemployment fell by 66K, employment rose by 149K, labor force participation held at 61.8%, the employment rate edged up to 59.2%, and the U-6 rate dipped to 8.1%.</li> <li><strong>Andy Burnham plans to challenge Keir Starmer for UK prime minister</strong>, contingent on winning the June 18 Makerfield by-election to enter Parliament. Starmer says he will not step down. Markets expect nearly two BoE rate hikes this year, starting in September.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p> 0600 – Germany April Factory Orders<br /> 1500 – NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations<br /> 0030 – Australia Jun. Westpac Consumer Confidence<br /> 0130 – Australia May NAB Business Confidence Survey </p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday:</strong> Oracle</li> <li><strong>Thursday:</strong> Adobe, Dollarama</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA:</strong> The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.2%, the S&P 500 lost 2.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.4% as investors cut exposure to AI-linked technology after Broadcom’s results failed to meet very high expectations. Nvidia fell 6.2%, Broadcom dropped 7.9% as its AI outlook did not clear the market’s elevated bar, while CrowdStrike fell 6.7% as investors focused on higher costs despite solid demand. The session showed how little room for error remains in richly valued growth stocks. Markets now turn to inflation data and bond yields for the next test.</li> <li><strong>Europe:</strong> The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, the DAX lost 0.8%, the CAC 40 declined 0.3%, while the FTSE 100 was broadly flat as Europe followed the US lower, but with less stress. Technology and semiconductor-linked names weakened after the sharp US AI selloff, while more defensive and commodity-linked parts of the market helped limit losses. The session showed that Europe was not immune to the AI valuation reset, but it was less exposed than the US Nasdaq. Investors now watch whether higher bond yields and tech weakness remain contained.</li> <li><strong>Asia:</strong> Asian equities fell sharply in Monday trading as Friday’s US technology selloff spread into chip-heavy markets. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 4.5% after falling as much as 8.8% earlier, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down about 3.8% at the morning close. Taiwan also came under heavy pressure as investors sold semiconductor names, while Hong Kong and mainland China fell more moderately. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the regional decline as investors reassessed AI valuations. The key question is whether this remains a valuation reset or becomes a broader risk-off move.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility surged on Friday as investors reassessed the outlook for interest rates, technology valuations, and geopolitical risk.</strong> The S&P 500 fell 2.64%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.77%, and the VIX jumped 39.7% to 21.51, while VIX1D and VIX9D climbed to 28.70 and 23.92 respectively, highlighting elevated uncertainty ahead of this week's US CPI and PPI reports. Renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $97 per barrel, adding fresh inflation concerns just as stronger-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that rates could stay higher for longer. The key question for Monday is whether Friday's selloff was a healthy correction or the start of a deeper pullback, with markets likely taking their next cue from inflation data and geopolitical headlines.</li> <li>SPX options currently imply an expected move of approximately 79 points (1.08%) for today's session and around 151 points (2.05%) for the full trading week.</li> <li>Today's skew indicator:<strong> Downside skew remains firmly in place</strong>. Near-the-money puts around the 7,380-7,400 area are pricing implied volatility near 43%, compared with roughly 23% on comparable calls,<strong> suggesting investors continue to favour downside protection over aggressive dip-buying</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets are attempting to stabilise after one of their worst weeks since 2022</strong>, with <strong>Bitcoin </strong>recovering <strong>above $62,000</strong> and <strong>Ethereum </strong>rebounding toward <strong>$1,650 </strong>after Friday's sharp selloff. The decline was driven by rising Treasury yields, ETF outflows, and stronger-than-expected US economic data that reduced expectations for lower interest rates, while reports that Strategy sold a small amount of Bitcoin added to investor caution.</li> <li><strong>Crypto-linked equities remained under pressure</strong>, with IBIT falling 5.2%, ETHA dropping 11.3%, COIN losing 7.2%, and MSTR declining 6.9%, highlighting continued risk aversion across the sector. Options activity also remained defensive, with institutional investors favouring protective positions in crypto ETFs and COIN ahead of this week's inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve meeting.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>US Treasury yields rose further after Friday’s US-jobs report driven surge</strong>, this time on the latest jump in crude oil prices after hostilities in the Iran war theatre picked up again at the weekend. After rising ten basis points Friday to a new cycle high just above 4.14%, the benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose over three basis points in early trading Monday, taking it north of 4.18% for another new cycle high since early 2025. The yield curve is bear-flattening, however, as the benchmark 10-year treasury yield only rose six basis points Friday to close the week at 4.53% and rose over three basis points to north of 4.56%, still well below the cycle peak of 4.685% of over two weeks ago.</li> <li><strong>US high-yield credit spreads were quite calm on a day that saw the worst stock-market sell-off in months</strong>, with the Bloomberg measure we track of US high yield bond spreads to US treasuries only up three basis points to 265 basis points, still at the lowest end of the historic range.</li> <li><strong>Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened </strong>as the rise in US treasury yields and crude oil prices saw longer yields rise, while the front end of the curve was well anchored. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose nearly four basis points Monday to trade above 2.71%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Gold, silver, and other hard assets extended Friday's selloff </strong>as renewed Israeli strikes on Iran pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. On Friday, an already weakened precious metals market tumbled after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates in 2026. Meanwhile, less rate-sensitive demand remains supportive, with the People's Bank of China reporting its largest monthly gold purchase since 2024.</li> <li><strong>Gold has been trending lower since mid-April </strong>amid an energy-driven inflation scare. Following Friday's jobs report and a broader deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on equities, bullion closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. For now, a combination of resilient economic growth and rising inflation expectations has created a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing the longer-term supportive themes of central bank buying, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification.</li> <li><strong>Oil has once again moved towards the upper end of its established trading range</strong> after Israel and Iran resumed exchanging fire. Despite repeated optimism from the US administration, a lasting peace agreement appears increasingly elusive. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to tighten global energy markets, with several oil majors warning that the window before physical shortages begin to emerge may be measured in weeks rather than months.</li> <li><strong>Copper, which has attracted significant speculative buying in recent weeks, also came under pressure</strong> but has so far managed to hold above key technical support around USD 6.15 per pound. Europe's natural gas benchmark has climbed back above EUR 51/MWh (USD 17/MMBtu) as the risk of a prolonged conflict threatens global LNG flows at a time when Europe should be rebuilding inventories ahead of winter.</li> <li><strong>In agriculture, Chicago corn and soybean futures fell to fresh multi-month lows on Friday</strong>. Prices were pressured by a stronger dollar, weakness across broader financial markets, and generally favourable US growing conditions that continue to support expectations for strong harvests and ample supplies later this year.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The US dollar jumped to new local highs across the board against the major currencies Friday</strong> as the US May jobs report saw a big surge in US treasury yields at the front-end of the yield. <strong>EURUSD </strong>posted its lowest daily close since early April at 1.1522 and fell as low as 1.1508 Monday before rebounding toward 1.1530. The Dollar Index more broadly rose to 100.00 for the first time since early April. The high for that index was 100.64 at the end of March, which in turn is the highest level since May of 2025.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY rose less than other major USD pairs</strong> as the market remains wary that Japan’s Ministry of Finance may put its significant resources to work in preventing further JPY weakening above 160.00 in <strong>USDJPY</strong>, where it first intervened in significant size back in late April. Still, traders were willing to bid up the pair for a close of 160.29 on Friday, near where it also traded early Monday.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p>For a global look at markets – go to <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/research/inspiration/inspiration?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D88539801438431671833894196837042984844%7CMCORGID%3D173338B35278510F0A490D4C%40AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1757493507186&selectedtabid=inspiration-categories-analysis~latestarticles">Inspiration</a>.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI selloff rocks markets. Boring saved the day.</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 04:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong><span>Friday’s selloff looked like a broad market breakdown, but it was not the full story.</span></strong><span> AI and semiconductor-linked stocks were hit hard, and because they carry so much weight in the indices, they made the headline market move look worse. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Boring quietly saved the day.</span></strong><span> Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, financials and value-oriented quality names still finished higher, helping cushion diversified portfolios. </span></li> <li><strong><span>The lesson is not to avoid AI.</span></strong><span> It is to avoid building a portfolio where too many holdings depend on the same story working perfectly. Diversification worked because some parts of the market were driven by different risks, not the same crowded AI trade.</span></li> </ul> <div ><span> <hr size="2" width="100%" align="center" /> </span></div> <p><span>Friday’s selloff looked ugly at the index level.</span></p> <p><span>The Nasdaq 100 fell close to 5%, the S&P 500 was down 2.6%, and semiconductor-linked stocks were hit even harder. For investors glancing only at the headline index numbers, it may have felt like everything was falling together.</span></p> <p><span>But that was not quite true.</span></p> <p><span>The selloff was broad across AI-linked names, semiconductors and high-growth technology, but it was not broad across the entire market. Some sectors not only held up, they actually rose.</span></p> <p><span>That is the important message for investors.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What happened?</span></h2> <p><span>The immediate trigger was the <strong>US jobs report</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>May nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding <strong>172,000 jobs</strong> versus expectations closer to <strong>80,000–85,000</strong>. The unemployment rate held at <strong>4.3%</strong>. On the surface, that is good news for the economy. But for markets, it was uncomfortable because stronger labour data makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon.</span></p> <p><span>That matters because when the Fed “put” looks further away, investors become less willing to pay high valuations for long-duration growth stocks. And right now, AI has become one of the market’s biggest long-duration growth trades.</span></p> <p><span>But the real truth is that the jobs report was only the spark. There was already a lot of nervousness sitting under the surface.</span></p> <p><span>A few things came together at once:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>AI crowding:</span></strong><span> Semiconductors and AI-linked names had become the default long trade. When everyone owns the same winners, even a small disappointment can lead to a much bigger unwind. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Top-heavy leadership:</span></strong><span> A small group of AI winners had been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the broader index. That can make the market look stronger on the way up, but more fragile on the way down. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Expectations were too high:</span></strong><span> The reaction to Broadcom showed that “good” is no longer enough for AI-linked names. Investors want upside surprises, stronger guidance, clear monetisation and proof that AI demand is still accelerating. Anything short of that can become an excuse to take profits. </span></li> <li><strong><span>AI funding questions:</span></strong><span> AI is not just a growth story; it is also a very capital-intensive one. Alphabet’s funding moves, and now Meta’s, are reminders that the next leg of AI infrastructure needs serious money. Investors are becoming more focused on who funds that buildout, whether capex remains disciplined, whether dilution risk rises, and whether returns can justify the spending.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Geopolitical risk added pressure:</span></strong><span> Rising Middle East risks, oil volatility and fading peace hopes were not the main reason AI sold off, but they added another layer of uncertainty. When markets are already stretched, bad news travels faster. </span></li> </ul> <p><span>For portfolios, the key point is that <strong>AI was under pressure, but diversification still worked</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>The headline index moves made the selloff look broad-based, but under the surface there was meaningful dispersion. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, financials and other cash-flow-oriented areas held up better, and in some cases rose.</span></p> <p><span>That is the main takeaway from Friday: when one dominant market theme comes under pressure, exposure to different sectors and risk drivers can help cushion portfolios.</span></p> <p><span>Diversification did not remove the volatility, but it helped reduce the impact of a concentrated AI-led selloff.<br /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What actually went up on Friday?</span></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>1. Consumer staples: boring became beautiful</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sector index: S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index: +1.6%</span></p> <p><span>Large-cap names that stood out:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Kimberly-Clark: +4.5% </span></li> <li><span>Procter & Gamble: +4.1% </span></li> <li><span>Colgate-Palmolive: +4.1% </span></li> <li><span>Coca-Cola: +3.5% </span></li> <li><span>General Mills: +3.0% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>Why it mattered: staples were among the clearest winners on Friday. The move was not just one or two names — it was broad across household products, beverages, packaged food and personal care.</span></p> <p><span>That tells us investors were rotating toward businesses with steadier demand, pricing power and less dependence on AI capital spending or long-duration growth expectations.</span></p> <p><span>These are not exciting businesses. But in a selloff, tissues, toothpaste, Coke and cereal can suddenly look very clever.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>2. Healthcare: cash-flow stability helped</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sector ETF: Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLV: +0.6%</span></p> <p><span>Large-cap names that stood out:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Johnson & Johnson: +2.0% </span></li> <li><span>Pfizer: +1.4% </span></li> <li><span>CVS Health: +1.2% </span></li> <li><span>UnitedHealth: +0.8% </span></li> <li><span>Eli Lilly: +0.6% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>Why it mattered: healthcare offered investors something the market wanted on Friday: earnings visibility, defensive demand and less direct exposure to the AI hardware cycle.</span></p> <p><span>The gains were spread across pharma, managed care and healthcare services, suggesting this was not just a single-stock move.</span></p> <p><span>Eli Lilly’s resilience is also notable given its already strong run, showing that investors were still willing to hold quality growth in healthcare when the broader market was punishing crowded AI and high-duration tech.</span></p> <p><span>Healthcare can still face risks from regulation, drug pricing and trial outcomes, but on Friday it worked as a useful portfolio stabiliser.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>3. Utilities: income and stability came back into focus</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sector ETF: Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLU: +0.9%</span></p> <p><span>Large-cap names that stood out:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Duke Energy: +2.0% </span></li> <li><span>Southern Company: +1.1% </span></li> <li><span>NextEra Energy: +0.2% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>Why it mattered: utilities benefited as investors looked for regulated cash flows, income and lower earnings volatility.</span></p> <p><span>This is also an interesting pocket because electricity demand can still be linked to long-term structural themes like AI infrastructure. But utilities do not trade in the same way as high-multiple AI stocks. They can offer a different type of exposure: steadier, regulated and less dependent on earnings perfection.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>4. Real estate: rate-sensitive, but still resilient</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sector index: S&P 500 Real Estate Index: +0.7%</span></p> <p><span>Large-cap names that stood out:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Ventas: +3.7% </span></li> <li><span>Welltower: +3.0% </span></li> <li><span>Realty Income: +1.8% </span></li> <li><span>Federal Realty Investment Trust: +1.5% </span></li> <li><span>Public Storage: +1.0% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>Why it mattered: real estate is usually sensitive to interest rates, so the sector’s gain was notable given the higher-yield backdrop.</span></p> <p><span>The resilience likely reflected demand for income-oriented assets, defensive cash flows and less exposure to the crowded AI trade. Healthcare REITs such as Ventas and Welltower also stood out, showing that investors were still willing to own property segments linked to more stable long-term demand.</span></p> <p><span>This adds another layer to the diversification message: even in a selloff led by AI and higher-rate fears, some income-focused equity sectors still worked. Real estate was not a perfect hedge, but it helped show that “equities” were not all moving in one direction.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>5. Financials: higher yields were not all bad news</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sector ETF: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLF: +0.2%</span></p> <p><span>Large-cap names that stood out:</span></p> <ul > <li><span>Visa: +1.1% </span></li> <li><span>JPMorgan: +0.5% </span></li> <li><span>Berkshire Hathaway: +2.0% </span></li> </ul> <p><span>Why it mattered: higher yields can hurt expensive growth stocks, but they can support parts of financials through the net interest income channel.</span></p> <p><span>Berkshire also acted like a classic quality/value ballast: cash flows, balance sheet strength and less dependence on the AI hype cycle.</span></p> <p><span>This was not a huge rally in financials, but in a market where the AI-heavy parts of the index were being sold aggressively, even modest resilience mattered.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What did not really help</span></h2> <p><span>Not all traditional hedges worked.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Gold was under pressure.</span></strong><span> </span></li> <li><strong><span>Long-duration bonds did not offer much protection.</span></strong><span> </span></li> <li><strong><span>Crypto did not act like a clean safe haven.</span></strong><span> </span></li> </ul> <p><span>That matters because Friday’s selloff was not just a classic risk-off move. It was also a higher-rate scare.</span></p> <p><span>When yields rise, expensive growth stocks can fall, but long-duration bonds can also struggle. So the portfolio protection did not mainly come from gold, bonds or crypto. It came from equity exposure that was not tied to the same AI, momentum and long-duration growth trade.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>The real meaning of diversification</span></h2> <p><span>Many investors think they are diversified because they own 20 or 30 stocks.</span></p> <p><span>But if most of those stocks are exposed to the same theme — AI, semiconductors, mega-cap tech, cloud, data centres or high-growth software — then the portfolio may not be as diversified as it looks.</span></p> <p><span>A portfolio can have many names but still have one main risk.</span></p> <p><span>Friday was a good example. Investors may have owned chip stocks, cloud stocks, AI software stocks, data-centre names and high-growth tech platforms. On paper, those are different businesses. In a selloff, they can behave like one big trade.</span></p> <p><span>That is why diversification should not only be about sectors or number of holdings. It should also be about <strong>risk drivers</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>A more balanced portfolio usually includes exposure to different forces:</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Growth:</span></strong><span> companies that benefit from innovation, technology and long-term earnings expansion. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Defensives:</span></strong><span> companies with more stable demand, such as staples, healthcare and utilities. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Income:</span></strong><span> dividend-paying stocks, bonds, REITs or other yield-oriented assets. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Value and quality:</span></strong><span> companies with strong balance sheets, cash flows and reasonable valuations. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Real assets or commodities:</span></strong><span> which can behave differently during inflation or geopolitical shocks. </span></li> </ul> <p><span>The point is not that every bucket will always work. They will not.</span></p> <p><span>The point is that they should not all fail for the same reason.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>AI still matters — but price matters too</span></h2> <p><span>Investors do not need to abandon AI because of one bad session. Structural themes can remain attractive even after sharp corrections.</span></p> <p><span>But expectations matter.</span></p> <p><span>When a stock or sector has already priced in strong growth, strong margins, strong demand, flawless execution and supportive interest rates, the margin for disappointment becomes very small. Even good results can disappoint if investors were expecting great results.</span></p> <p><span>That appears to be part of what happened on Friday. The issue was not simply that AI companies suddenly became weak businesses. The issue was that the market had become less forgiving.</span></p> <p><span>For investors, this is the key takeaway: <strong>a strong theme can still become a crowded trade.</strong></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What investors can learn from Friday</span></h2> <p><span>Friday’s selloff was not a reason to panic. But it was a useful stress test.</span></p> <p><span>Investors may want to ask three simple questions:</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>First, what percentage of my portfolio depends on one theme continuing to outperform?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>This includes not only obvious chip names, but also software, cloud, power, data-centre and mega-cap tech exposure.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Second, what do I own that can still work if yields rise?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Higher rates can pressure expensive growth stocks, bonds, gold and other long-duration assets. Companies with steady cash flows, pricing power and strong balance sheets may be more resilient.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Third, what do I own that is not popular right now?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The best diversifiers often look boring during bull markets. They only become interesting when the favourite trade stops working.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Bottom line</span></h2> <p><span>Friday’s selloff was not just about AI stocks falling. It was about concentration risk being exposed.</span></p> <p><span>The index moves made it look like everything was falling, but underneath the surface, several parts of the market were still working. Staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, financials and value-oriented quality all showed that diversification still has a role, even in a market obsessed with growth and innovation.</span></p> <p><span>The lesson is not to own less of the future.</span></p> <p><span>It is to make sure the future is not the only thing your portfolio owns.</span></p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Consumer Services</span> <span>Consumer Goods</span> <span>Johnson Johnson</span> <span>Pfizer</span> <span>Theme - Big pharma</span> <span>Utilities</span> <span>Financials</span> <span>Theme - Dividend growth</span> <span>Dividend</span> <span>High Dividend</span> <span>Coca Cola</span> <span>Walmart</span> <span>UK Portfolio Ideas</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 8 June, 2026</h1> <p>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p> <p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>NFP 172k vs 85k forecasts. Iran launches attacks on Israel.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Nasdaq Composite -4.2%, biggest point drop on record after NFP</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX: </span></strong></span><span>Stronger US payrolls boosted Fed hike bets, driving broad-based dollar gains</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil rallies while precious metals plunge with silver below $70</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Yield curve aggressively bear flattens with 2 year rising to 4.18%</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span><span> </span></p> <p> <span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Iran launched missile barrages toward Israel</span></strong></span><span>, warning against action in Lebanon and straining a fragile ceasefire. Israel said all were intercepted with no casualties. Donald Trump reportedly criticized Israel’s Beirut strikes, urged Netanyahu not to retaliate, and pressed Iran to resume talks.</span></li> <li><span>The <strong>US added 172K jobs in May 2026, beating 85K forecasts</strong> and following a revised 179K gain. Leisure and hospitality, local government, health care, and manufacturing added jobs, while financial activities lost 22K. Revisions raised March–April employment by 93K, underscoring labor market resilience.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Japan’s GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q1 2026, up from 0.2% in Q4, beating 0.3% forecasts</span></strong></span><span> and marking the strongest growth since Q1 2025.</span></li> <li><span>Andy Burnham plans to challenge Keir Starmer for UK prime minister, contingent on winning the June 18 Makerfield by-election to enter Parliament. Starmer says he will not step down. Markets expect nearly two BoE rate hikes this year, starting in September.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in May 2026, as expected.</span></strong></span><span> Unemployment fell by 66K, employment rose by 149K, labor force participation held at 61.8%, the employment rate edged up to 59.2%, and the U-6 rate dipped to 8.1%.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>US —</span></strong><span> On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 2.6%, its worst session since October, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 4.2% — its biggest one-day point drop on record — as the strong payrolls print fuelled rate hike fears and triggered a sharp rotation out of AI and megacap tech. Nvidia fell 6.2%, Broadcom dropped 7.9%, and Meta slid 5.5% on reports it is reportedly considering raising tens of billions in a new equity offering. The VIX surged 40% on the week to 21.51. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures extended losses in early Asia trading Sunday evening, falling as much as 0.6% and 0.7% respectively after Iran's missile strikes.</span></li> <li><strong><span>EU —</span></strong><span> European equities ended last week modestly lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.5% on Friday and the DAX falling 1.38% for the week to 24,759, its largest weekly decline since mid-May. The FTSE 100 ended little changed at 10,368. Tech and rate-sensitive sectors led declines, with Infineon dropping 9.1% on Friday after a downgrade. ASML fell 2.4%. Retail outperformed, with Inditex gaining on an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged 0.19% higher for the week at 6,062.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Asia —</span></strong><span> Asian markets face a bruising open this Monday, with Nikkei futures down 3.8% on the SGX as of Sunday evening, weighed by the US tech selloff and Iran's fresh missile strikes. The Kospi triggered a circuit breaker in early Monday trading, halting trade after the index plunged as much as 8.4%, extending last week's 7%+ two-day rout driven by heavy selling in Samsung and SK Hynix. South Korea's government convened an emergency market meeting over the weekend and unveiled measures to stabilise the won and curb speculative trading. Hang Seng and broader China markets are also expected to open under pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.7% as of early Monday. Toho Co. was a rare bright spot in Japan, rising 5.5% after a new Buy rating from UBS.</span></li> </ul> <p><span></span> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> </p> <ul> <li><span>Monday: Campbell’s, Graham, FuelCell Energy, Oil-Dri</span></li> <li><span>Tuesday: Casey’s General Stores, JM Smucker, SailPoint, Uranium Energy, Academy Sports</span></li> <li><span>Wednesday: Oracle, Core & Main, Chewy, Navan, Pennon Group</span></li> <li><span>Thursday: Chow Tai Fook, Adobe, Halma, Lennar, LPP, Do & Co</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>On Friday, the<strong> USD</strong> rallied across the board after May nonfarm payrolls beat all forecasts with a 172,000 gain, lifting Fed rate-hike expectations and pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.6%. </span></li> <li><span>In G10, <strong>AUDUSD</strong> fell 1.21% to 0.7048, the largest G10 move, broke below its 100-day moving average, trading around 0.7032, with technicals pointing toward further downside toward the 0.6833 March low.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EUR</span></strong></span><span> fell 1.18% last week to around 1.1519, weighed by the stronger dollar and ahead of the ECB meeting, where a hike is expected but may not be enough to offset dollar strength.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDJPY </span></strong><span>traded around 160.35, near its weakest level since end-April, keeping Japanese intervention risk elevated.</span></li> <li><strong><span>USDSGD </span></strong><span>rose 0.47% to 1.2907, while<strong> USDCNH</strong> edged up 0.20% to 6.7883, as both the SGD and CNH weakened modestly in line with broader dollar strength following the stronger</span>‑<span>than</span>‑<span>expected US jobs report.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>WTI and Brent crude jumped more than 3% in early Asia trading Monday after Iran fired missiles at Israel, with Brent rising as much as 3.6% to $96.47/bbl. Oil had already been elevated due to the ongoing Iran war disrupting Strait of Hormuz flows, with HSBC describing commodities as being in a "super-squeeze."</span></li> <li><span>Bullion traded near $4,325–$4,335/oz, having given up nearly 5% last week as the strong jobs report boosted the dollar and rate hike expectations. ETFs cut gold holdings for five consecutive days last week. China's PBOC extended its gold-buying streak to 19 months in May, adding 320,000 troy ounces.</span></li> <li><span>Hedge funds boosted net bullish Comex copper bets to a five-year high in the week ending 2 June, with long-only positions at their highest in over 22 months, underpinned by AI data centre construction driving structural demand for the metal.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The May payrolls report triggered aggressive bear flattening in Treasuries on Friday, with the 10-year yield surging to 4.53–4.55%, a two-week high, and the 2-year touching 4.18%. Markets fully priced in a 25bp Fed hike by December, with the 5s30s spread compressing to its tightest since April 2025.</span></li> <li><span>JPMorgan strategists raised their 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield forecasts by 30bp and 20bp respectively, now projecting 4.20% and 4.70%, and recommend staying short Treasuries versus bunds.</span></li> <li><span>With the ECB expected to hike Thursday and the Fed on hold for now, attention turns to the bund-Treasury spread dynamic. The Germany 10-year yield premium over the US stood at approximately -148bps recently, having narrowed significantly from -195bps a year ago as European yields rise on tightening expectations.</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Broadcom shock, rotation wins - 5 June 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">Broadcom's post-earnings plunge highlighted a growing gap between strong AI fundamentals and investor expectations. While the Dow closed at a record high thanks to strength in financials and healthcare, options flow pointed to increasing institutional demand for downside protection in small caps, semiconductors, and crypto-related names.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Broadcom shock, rotation wins - 5 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>Broadcom’s AI chip guidance miss triggered a sharp rotation from tech into financials and value, setting up a vol event as May Non-Farm Payrolls land at 14:30 CET.</em></p> <p>Thursday’s session delivered a rotation story rather than a market breakdown. Broadcom beat on revenue but disappointed on forward AI chip guidance, sending the stock down approximately 14% and pulling the broader semiconductor complex lower. Capital moved swiftly into financials, healthcare, and value names — lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed. For options traders, the more telling signal sits not in the index headline but in the term structure and in yesterday’s confirmed-opening flow, which showed broad-based institutional demand for downside protection across small caps, large-cap tech, and crypto proxies.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Headline driver</strong></h2> <p>Broadcom’s fiscal Q2 report beat on revenue ($22.19bn vs. $22.13bn consensus) but fell short on forward AI chip guidance — Q3 AI chip sales projected at $16bn, below analyst estimates of approximately $17.2bn — sending the stock down approximately 14% on Thursday and triggering a broad semiconductor sell-off. Capital rotated swiftly into financials, healthcare, and value names, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed. </p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <p>S&P 500 closed +0.41% at 7,584.31 — a headline number that conceals the degree of internal rotation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +1.73% to a record 51,567.17, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped -0.53% to 30,407.81. The Russell 2000 added +1.45% to 2,935.33, reflecting broad appetite for non-AI cyclicals. US 10-year yields eased to 4.465% (-2.2 bps). As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down approximately 0.56% and Nasdaq 100 futures are off 1.12%, as the Broadcom shock continues to weigh on Asian equity markets ahead of this afternoon’s May Non-Farm Payrolls report (14:30 CET).</p> <p><em>Data source: Saxo platform, as of 4 June 2026 close.</em></p> <p><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low vol bull — VIX 15.74, 20-day realised vol 8.9% (stable), S&P 500 +6.22% above its 50-day moving average.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 4 June 2026 — yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <p>Confirmed-opening single-name flow leaned defensively across semiconductors, large-cap tech, and crypto proxy equities, with put premium outweighing call interest in chip names, mega-cap software, and crypto-linked stocks — suggesting a broad hedging or repositioning bias rather than outright directional panic. Index and ETF flow reinforced that read, with substantial confirmed-opening put structures in IWM across multiple expiries pointing to active institutional demand for small-cap downside protection, while near-dated put activity in Bitcoin-linked ETFs remained difficult to classify cleanly given deep-ITM execution and ambiguous trade intent.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>VIX closed at 15.74 (+2.21%), mildly elevated but consistent with the low-vol bull regime. The more informative read sits in the term structure: VIX1D printed at 10.59 — indicating the market was not pricing a large overnight event into Thursday’s close — while front-month VIX futures settled near 17.30, a roughly 155-basis-point premium over spot. With May Non-Farm Payrolls releasing at 14:30 CET this afternoon, that futures premium reflects calendar risk from the upcoming CPI print (10 June) and FOMC meeting (16–17 June) rather than immediate session fear. SKEW closed at 142.15 (+3.87%), at elevated levels, indicating continued demand for OTM downside protection even as headline VIX remained contained. The gap between implied vol (VIX at 15.74) and 20-day realised vol (8.9%) is notable — IV is running at approximately 1.8x realised, a historical environment where premium-selling structures have tended to be more competitive relative to premium-buying alternatives once a near-term catalyst resolves.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Post-event iron condor on an index.</strong> With implied volatility running at approximately 1.8x recent realised vol and the VIX1D at just 10.59 heading into this afternoon’s NFP release, the vol-selling window typically opens after the data print rather than before. An iron condor — selling an OTM call spread and an OTM put spread simultaneously — profits when the underlying stays within the short strikes through expiry and may capture the IV compression that tends to follow a resolved macro event. Structuring the trade after the data removes the directional binary of the release itself while retaining access to the vol premium that built ahead of it. The maximum loss occurs if the underlying makes a large move beyond either short strike: one side of the condor moves into-the-money, and the position can lose up to the width of the affected spread, minus the net premium collected.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Put debit spread as a cost-efficient hedge in a high-SKEW environment.</strong> SKEW at 142 reflects above-average demand for OTM downside protection, a level that tends to inflate the premium cost of outright put purchases relative to a neutral-skew baseline. A put debit spread — buying a closer-to-the-money put and simultaneously selling a further-OTM put at a lower strike in the same expiry — preserves directional downside exposure while reducing the net premium paid against that elevated skew. This structure is most relevant where a hedger has a specific downside level in mind rather than an open-ended tail view. The maximum loss is limited to the net debit paid for the spread if the underlying stays above the long put strike at expiry; maximum gain is capped at the difference between the two strikes, minus the net premium paid.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Thursday’s session delivered a rotation story, not a market breakdown: Broadcom’s AI guidance miss absorbed some excess in semiconductor valuations while financials, healthcare, and value names picked up the capital. Today’s May NFP print is the next variable — it arrives at 14:30 CET with index futures already pointing lower and Asian markets under significant pressure, so the directional outcome of the data could amplify or reverse the current pre-market setup. For options traders, managing exposure through the event rather than ahead of it remains the more defensible posture.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---streak-snaps-payrolls-loom---4-june-2026-04062026" data-id="A24D825C0B1E4DDD97617A87A07DAA4F" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Streak snaps payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-oil-swing-dow-record---28-may-2026-28052026" data-id="F4B69C48DD584E45A4C99EE42EEF1723" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran oil swing Dow record - 28 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---nasdaq-clears-30000---27-may-2026-27052026" data-id="70ECD5D1214E4CF5A77A108317853F86" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Nasdaq clears 30000 - 27 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---hormuz-hopes-douse-oil---26-may-2026-26052026" data-id="10922CCA41E44E2A89A767DE44FC5C4C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Hormuz hopes douse oil - 26 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief--nvidia-beats-kospi-surges--21-may-2026-21052026" data-id="530C86E8C61C4E0AAC7B640425962A52" data-type="Article">Options Brief Nvidia beats KOSPI surges 21 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---all-eyes-on-nvda---20-may-2026-20052026" data-id="554644A886474FB880FCDB9F10BADE89" data-type="Article">Options Brief - All eyes on NVDA - 20 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 05 June, 2026</h1> <p>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p> <p><strong><span>Asia Market Quick Take – 5 June, 2026</span></strong> </p> <p><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong><span> </span> </p> <ul > <li><strong>Macro: </strong>Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon </li> <li><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Dow gains 1.7% to close at all time high, </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >FX: </strong><span >USDJPY at 160 previous intervention level </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Commodities: </strong><span >Oil falls due to hopes of Middle East resolution </span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Fixed income: </strong><span >Treasury yield fell across the curve </span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span> </span> </p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em><span> </span> </p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong> <strong >Macro: </strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Trump is reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale war with Iran and would end the truce only if Tehran kills US troops.</span></strong><span> US–Iran talks show little progress, hindered by Israel’s operations in Lebanon. </span><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, though Trump says the group has approached the White House about ending hostilities.</strong><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 in the week</strong><span > ending May 30, above the 215,000 consensus, partly reflecting Memorial Day volatility, while continuing claims slipped 8,000 to 1.777 million.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.5% year-on-year in April</strong><span >, the fastest pace since December 2024 and 52nd straight gain, with wages up across all major sectors. Inflation-adjusted real wages increased 1.9%, extending their rise to four months.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US nonfarm unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1, down from 2.1% and below the 2.3% estimate</strong><span >, as compensation growth slowed and productivity edged up. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 2.2%, and year-on-year overall labor costs were up 0.5%.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >US employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up from 83,387 in April</strong><span > and the highest May total since 2020. AI was the top driver, with tech leading (38,242 cuts), followed by transportation, services, and fintech. Year-to-date cuts total 397,755, 43% below last year’s federal layoff–inflated figure and roughly in line with 2024.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Eurozone retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in April after a 0.8% rise in March</strong><span >, with non-food and fuel down and food up. Germany and Spain saw declines, while France rose 0.3%. Year-on-year, sales were up 1%, down from 2.1% in March.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><strong>Equities:</strong><strong><span> </span></strong> </p> <ul > <li><strong>US —</strong> <strong>The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 875 points (+1.7%) to a record close of 51,562 on Thursday</strong>, its 15th record close of 2026, led by healthcare and financials. UnitedHealth rose 5.2% after a Bank of America upgrade, while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express and Visa all gained over 3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,593, its 10th gain in 11 sessions. <strong>The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% as Broadcom tumbled 12% after its AI chip revenue guidance disappointed.</strong> After hours, Nasdaq 100 futures fell a further 0.9%, Guidewire dropped 16%, and <strong>Lululemon slipped 11% after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.69, missing estimates slightly. </strong><span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >EU —</strong><span > European equities rebounded on Thursday after an initial AI-driven selloff. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 624.45, led by healthcare. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.82% to 6,103. The DAX rose 0.6% to 24,945, with SAP the top gainer at +5.5%. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.27% to 10,360. Abivax surged 18% on a reassessment of clinical trial data, Remy Cointreau rose as much as 15% on strong earnings, and Maersk gained 8.3%. Pirelli fell 4.2% after Grizzly Research disclosed a short position citing governance concerns.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >Asia —</strong><span > Asian equities are broadly lower on Friday morning, with the Kospi the standout underperformer. South Korea's Kospi opened down 3.7% and extended losses to as much as 5%, with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar mechanism to halt program selling after KOSPI200 futures fell over 5%. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SK Square are the biggest drags, tracking the US chip sector's 2.2% decline overnight. The Kosdaq fell as much as 2.9%. The Nikkei is tracking lower alongside the Kospi, while the Topix is near flat given its more diversified sector exposure. The Hang Seng closed down 379 points at 25,253 on Thursday, with mainland Chinese investors reportedly rotating out of Hong Kong stocks and back into onshore AI-related names. The STI is also softer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down approximately 1%.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Earnings this week:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Friday:</strong> Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group </li> </ul> <p><strong>FX:</strong> </p> <ul > <li>The <strong>Korean won</strong> weakened to its lowest level since 2009 against the dollar, touching 1,540.55 on Thursday, as foreign investors sold approximately $4.5 billion of local stocks amid ongoing Iran war concerns. The dollar opened at around 1,529 won on Friday morning.<span></span></li> <li>The <strong >Indonesian rupiah</strong><span > breached 18,000 per dollar for the first time ever on Thursday, weighed down by fiscal concerns, sovereign rating downgrade risk and a domestic equity selloff.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >Japanese yen</strong><span > remains under pressure near 160 per dollar. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama reiterated readiness to act on FX at any time, noting that bold actions are permitted under the US-Japan FX statement. Japan's foreign reserves fell by $75.6 billion in May, suggesting the government may have tapped overseas assets to fund FX intervention.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The <strong >Chinese yuan</strong><span > is near 6.77 per dollar, up over 3% year-to-date, making it Asia's best-performing currency. TD Securities sees potential for further CNY appreciation if portfolio inflows into China's tech rally accelerate, with an end-year target of 6.70.</span><span ></span></li> <li>The dollar eased retracing part of Wednesday’s biggest gain since 19 May as an Israel–Lebanon ceasefire weighed on oil; Most G<span >‑</span><span >10 currencies rose while </span><strong >NOK </strong><span >and </span><strong >CAD </strong><span >lagged, and traders awaited US/Canada jobs data. </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >USDCAD </strong><span >hit 1.3925 (highest since 7 Apr) before paring; </span><span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >EURSEK </strong><span >fell 0.2% to 10.8919 on softer-than</span><span >‑</span><span >expected Swedish core inflation; </span><strong >EURCHF </strong><span >slipped 0.2% to 0.9167 and </span><strong >USDCHF </strong><span >dipped 0.3% to 0.7895 after Swiss inflation undershot forecasts.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Commodities:</strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>Oil prices</strong> fell on hopes of a Middle East diplomatic resolution following the tentative Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though the broader backdrop remains elevated given the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. <span></span></li> <li><span></span><strong >Copper </strong><span >is in focus ahead of the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver an updated recommendation on import tariffs for refined copper. Citi sees copper potentially reaching $14,500/tonne in June as tariff fears fuel bullish sentiment, while the premium of US prices over global peers has widened again, prompting renewed metal flows into the US.</span><span ></span></li> <li><span > </span>Commerzbank raised its year-end targets for <strong >gold </strong><span >to $4,800/oz and </span><strong >silver </strong><span >to $80/oz, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. Energy analysts warn that rapid inventory drawdowns from the Strait of Hormuz closure are likely to deliver fuel price shocks, with prices across the energy complex expected to remain higher for longer.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><strong >Fixed income:</strong><strong > </strong><span > </span></p> <ul > <li><strong>US Treasury yields</strong> fell modestly, with the 10-year yield declining 2.5bps to 4.471% and the 30-year falling 1.9bps to 4.975%, as easing oil prices and a softer risk tone supported bonds. The 30-year yield is now down nine of the past 11 trading sessions and off 20bps from its 52-week high of 5.18% hit on May 19.<span></span></li> <li>Large options trades in the Treasury market this week targeted a move higher in 10-year yields, with a $15 million put position on Wednesday targeting 4.70% and a $5 million put on Thursday targeting 4.65% by end of July, signalling that some market participants are positioning for a renewed bond selloff.<span ></span></li> <li><span ></span><strong >JGBs </strong><span >edged higher in early Tokyo trade, tracking overnight Treasury gains. However, with the dollar recovering to around 160 yen, Barclays' Japan rates strategists note that expectations for a BOJ rate hike in June are resurfacing, which could limit further JGB upside.</span><span ></span></li> </ul> <p><span></span><span >For a global look at markets – go to</span><span > </span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration" target="_blank" >Inspiration</a><span >.</span><strong > </strong><span > </span><span > </span></p> <p><em >This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</em><span > </span><em >The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</em><span > </span></p> <p> </p> </p></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Copper rally faces tariff roulette, but fundamentals remain tight</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><em><span>Stretched, tight and increasingly strategic</span></em></strong></h3> <br /> Key points:</h3> <ul> <li>Copper is moving from being “Dr Copper” to “strategic copper”. It still reflects global growth, but it increasingly reflects <span data-start="3401" data-end="3469">energy security, industrial policy and infrastructure resilience</span>.</li> <li>Mine supply remains the market’s weak link as the repeated disruption of large, complex mines has exposed a market where replacement supply is slow, capital intensive and operationally vulnerable</li> <li>A widening COMEX-LME spread is once again pulling metal across the Atlantic as US tariff speculation becomes a global tightening mechanism</li> <li>Grid investment, AI data centres, EV infrastructure, defence capex and energy security all point to copper demand that may prove less price-sensitive than traditional construction or white-goods demand.</li> </ul> <span><hr /> </span> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p data-pm-slice="1 1 []"><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Copper has extended its rally in 2026, trading around 14% higher year-to-date and roughly one-third above levels seen a year ago. While the magnitude of the move has raised concerns about demand destruction and speculative excess, the underlying story continues to strengthen. Mine supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, smelters are fighting over scarce concentrate, strategic stockpiling remains widespread, and US tariff uncertainty is pulling metal away from the rest of the world.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, copper demand is becoming increasingly tied to strategic sectors such as power infrastructure, electrification, artificial intelligence, and defence. This shift may not eliminate the commodity’s traditional cyclical tendencies, but it is helping create a market where demand is potentially less sensitive to economic slowdowns and high prices than in previous cycles.</span></p> <p><span>As a result, copper increasingly finds itself at the intersection of industrial growth, energy security, technological expansion, and geopolitical competition.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Supply remains the market’s weak link</strong></span><span ></span></h3> <p><span>The bullish copper narrative ultimately begins with supply, and here the market continues to face challenges. After major disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula contributed to an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of lost production in 2025, supply disappointments have continued this year. Downgrades from major producers, lower production guidance in Chile, and slower-than-expected recoveries at several key operations have kept the market on edge. Industry estimates suggest supply disruptions have already removed around 450,000 tonnes from expected production this year.</span></p> <p><span>The problem is not necessarily a lack of resources. Rather, it is the increasing difficulty of bringing new supply online quickly and efficiently. Large copper projects require significant capital investment, long development timelines, complex permitting processes, and stable operating environments. At the same time, ore grades continue to decline at many mature operations, increasing production costs and reducing operational flexibility.</span></p> The result is a market where supply growth remains persistently vulnerable to disruptions, delays, and underperformance.<br /> <br /> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Negative treatment charges signal extreme tightness</strong></span></h3> <p><span >One of the clearest signs of stress within the copper supply chain can be found in the treatment charge market. Treatment charges, the fees miners pay smelters to process concentrate into refined metal, have collapsed to deeply negative levels, with spot assessments recently heard around minus USD 115 to 118 per tonne.</span></p> <p><span>While treatment charges are often overlooked outside the industry, they provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of concentrate availability. Negative treatment charges effectively signal that smelters are competing aggressively for feedstock because there is simply not enough concentrate available.</span></p> <p><span>The collapse reflects the combination of weaker mine production, delayed project ramp-ups, and constrained scrap availability. Chinese refined copper production has already shown signs of slowing, and further downside risks remain if concentrate shortages persist.</span></p> <p><span>For now, strong sulphuric acid prices are helping support smelter margins and reducing the risk of widespread production cuts. However, they do little to change the underlying message: the bottleneck remains firmly upstream at the mine level.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">Falling TC charges and SHFE stockpiles underpin tight supply story - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Copper demand is becoming increasingly strategic</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Historically, copper has been viewed as one of the purest indicators of global economic activity. Its widespread use across construction, manufacturing, and consumer goods earned it the nickname “Dr Copper”. That relationship still matters, but the composition of demand is changing.</span></p> <p><span>An increasing share of future copper demand growth is expected to come from power generation, transmission infrastructure, electric vehicles, battery systems, artificial intelligence data centres, and defence-related spending. Much of the copper demand associated with AI is indirect, driven not by the servers themselves but by the enormous investments required in grids, substations, transformers, and power distribution systems.</span></p> <p><span>At the same time, governments across Europe and North America are increasingly viewing electricity networks as critical national infrastructure. Ageing grids, electrification targets, and energy security concerns are driving investment programmes that are likely to extend well beyond the normal business cycle.</span></p> <p><span>This evolution matters because these sectors tend to be less sensitive to economic slowdowns and high commodity prices than traditional cyclical demand sources such as housing, appliances, and consumer electronics. In short, copper demand is increasingly being driven by the need to generate, move, store, and secure electricity.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Tariffs are distorting the global market</strong></span><span ></span></h3> <p><span>Another major theme that has supported copper last year and again recently has been the growing divergence between the US and the rest of the world. The at times widening premium of COMEX copper over London Metal Exchange prices has created a powerful incentive for metal to flow into the United States ahead of a potential decision on refined copper import tariffs.</span></p> <p><span>As a result, the United States has attracted significant volumes of refined copper imports that does not reflect its relative small share of overall global demand, so while inventories build in the U.S. availability is reduced elsewhere, tightening conditions across the rest of the market.</span></p> <p><span>The upcoming US Commerce Department report, due by the end of June, represents a potentially important catalyst. A recommendation supporting future tariffs could encourage further inventory accumulation ahead of implementation, while a decision not to proceed could trigger an unwinding of the current premium and some temporary pressure on prices.</span></p> <p><span>For now, however, tariff uncertainty continues to act as a tightening mechanism for the global market.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">COMEX and London Copper priced in cents per pound - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Strategic stockpiling may be creating a higher price floor</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Visible inventories have increased this past year, particularly in COMEX warehouses. On the surface, this might appear inconsistent with the bullish supply narrative. However, inventory levels increasingly reflect strategic behaviour rather than pure market fundamentals.</span></p> <p><span>The concentration of metal in the United States ahead of a possible tariff regime highlights how policy considerations are influencing inventory decisions. At the same time, strategic stockpiling by governments, industrial users, and supply-chain managers appears to be limiting the amount of copper available to the wider market. It highlights an emerging trend with consumers of key commodities, such as copper, moving from a "just in time" to a "just in case" strategy. </span></p> <p><span>This development may help explain why copper prices continue to remain elevated despite periodic signs of slower physical demand. The market is increasingly assigning value to security of supply, not simply immediate consumption needs.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>Technical focus: support holding, upside targets in view</strong></span></h3> <p><span>COMEX copper continues to trade within a constructive technical structure. Following its failure near USD 6.72 per pound on 13 May, prices corrected lower before finding support around USD 6.15, the 31.8% retracement of the March to May rally as well as a former resistance area that has now turned into an important support zone. The successful retest reinforces the broader uptrend, which remains characterised by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.</span></p> <p><span>As long as copper holds above the USD 6.15 area, the technical outlook remains supportive, with a renewed challenge and break above USD 6.72 opening up for a move towards USD 7.00 per pound, a major psychological milestone. Conversely, a decisive move back below support would weaken the bullish technical picture and raise the risk of a deeper correction, with support - as per the chart - after that being USD 6 followed USD 5.8.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"></div><div class="rte--output">HG Copper - Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><span><strong>The outlook: bullish, but not without risks</strong></span></h3> <p><span>Several major investment banks have recently upgraded their copper outlooks. Forecasts for sizeable refined market deficits over the next two years have pushed average price expectations steadily higher, with some analysts now discussing the possibility of prices reaching USD 15,000 per tonne in London against a current price closer to USD 14,000 should supply shortfalls persist.</span></p> <p><span>While supply growth continues to disappoint, strategic demand drivers remain intact, and policy developments are reinforcing concerns about future availability. However, the market is no longer cheap.</span></p> <p><span>Copper is trading close to record levels, and high prices will inevitably test demand elasticity, particularly in China where buyers have historically shown sensitivity to elevated prices. Early signs of slowing orders from parts of the manufacturing sector suggest that some demand destruction risks remain present.</span></p> <p><span>In addition, the outcome of the US tariff review introduces a significant binary risk. While tariff implementation could tighten the market further, a decision not to proceed would likely remove an important source of support.</span></p> <p><span>Ultimately, copper’s long-term story remains one of tightening supply meeting increasingly strategic demand. But after a powerful rally, the next phase is likely to require confirmation from both physical market fundamentals and policy developments. The bull market remains intact, but it has become increasingly dependent on delivering the supply deficits that many now expect.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><strong><strong><span>1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-fell-again-in-may-as-middle-east-crisis-reshaped-market-focus-01062026" data-id="8E649E60BA4645D3A0D0585242601F13" data-type="Article">Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus</a><br /> 1 June 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-26-may-2026-01062026" data-id="D875B0B161FB47A0ABF7EF1C180E2636" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 26 May 2026</a><br /> 29 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-retreat-masks-deeper-supply-concerns-as-metals-shine-29052026" data-id="96A060C202A14AFCAE43CF0360846721" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine</a><br /> 22 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-22052026" data-id="C7996BB9AC7B4387BFACE99112B20230" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly</a>: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm<br /> 21 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/oil-takes-control-of-markets-as-diplomacy-headlines-collide-with-tightening-supply-21052026" data-id="A1E6F74144564A6D8B059850D7DCEBD1" data-type="Article">Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply</a><br /> 19 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-near-term-headwinds-meet-longer-term-structural-support-19052026" data-id="12E77E8FAE6B42389A42E10369137AD6" data-type="Article">Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support</a><br /> 18 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-12-may-2026-18052026" data-id="347DB5050F864CB996D422A4CFBEB0C5" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026</a><br /> 13 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/grains-surge-as-usda-wheat-shock-meets-biofuel-driven-soy-demand-13052026" data-id="2AC8E3C0055E42DBA726AA32BDC27F51" data-type="Article">Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand</a><br /> 12 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/silver-breaks-higher-as-investors-rediscover-its-dual-appeal-12052026" data-id="F51E264ED7D3484389B0DE7234EFAA79" data-type="Article">Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal</a><br /> 11 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-5-may-2026-11052026" data-id="2C5E76E5A85F4F04A2350605DBCC6B44" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026</a><br /> 8 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-holds-firm-as-central-banks-and-investors-look-beyond-price-08052026" data-id="89687D64B0C14A0C953A11898EB3BCE1" data-type="Article">Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price</a><br /> 3 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-28-april-2026-03052026" data-id="F5B3D9B2E2EA4C6DBEA1CBCA0AFFDA91" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026</a><br /> 1 May 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-rally-broadens-in-april-as-middle-east-disruption-tightens-global-supply-chains-01052026" data-id="17F044A848974F989E387F331BDC45DB" data-type="Article">Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains</a><br /> 30 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-rises-with-oil-as-geopolitical-risk-overwhelms-rate-headwinds-30042026" data-id="913BF947FC8F4E0B9FEEC4B848C64291" data-type="Article">Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds</a><br /> 29 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rally-extends-as-strait-disruption-continues-opecs-role-tested-after-uae-exit-29042026" data-id="DC861D31F2184DABB42FFCF9A7E4B68D" data-type="Article">Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit</a><br /> 28 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-face-near-term-pressure-from-oil-driven-inflation-28042026" data-id="AED8E78ECFE845F2B0244ECDB755536D" data-type="Article">Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation</a><br /> 27 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-21-april-2026-27042026" data-id="DE3EE59CB5414C169CCC0958EC816D81" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026</a><br /> 24 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-from-fuel-shortages-to-food-risks-as-hormuz-remains-shut-24042026" data-id="4EC56C4426EC47F090B8C97C9E000F79" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut</a><br /> 22 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/severe-supply-disruption-meets-rising-demand-destruction-as-hormuz-closure-persists-22042026" data-id="FE10F88674FE4991B61D00AEB7CE02FE" data-type="Article">Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists</a><br /> 20 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-14-april-2026-20042026" data-id="E4554C47A3504722A360A2E0F2D0AF3F" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026</a><br /> 14 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/precious-metals-rebuild-as-macro-tailwinds-return-but-gold-awaits-breakout-confirmation-14042026" data-id="CC221C7482B44642AEDE03ECC2A4A592" data-type="Article">Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation</a><br /> 13 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-april-7-2026-13042026" data-id="D60285173A49405CBDCE019B12A938CE" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026</a><br /> 10 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-energy-slumps-but-physical-oil-stress-keeps-the-market-on-edge-10042026" data-id="A3E5D752C7A442C0BA0D67A83BB2297B" data-type="Article">Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge</a><br /> 9 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/crude-rebounds-toward-usd-100-as-hormuz-bottlenecks-keep-physical-market-tight-09042026" data-id="F68C59DB02D5473981BBDC3918E54CD9" data-type="Article">Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight</a><br /> 8 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/gold-correction-meets-macro-reset-as-ceasefire-reverses-key-headwinds-08042026" data-id="5683DD1DFE9644358327272CF413C860" data-type="Article">Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/europes-gas-market-shifts-from-stress-to-relief-but-the-real-test-still-lies-ahead-07042026" data-id="FE54A383A20F4C8988662C4818F003CC" data-type="Article">Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/wti-above-brent-a-curve-distortion-not-a-benchmark-inversion-07042026" data-id="529398E9941F47708FE4F9C3F93EAC27" data-type="Article">WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion</a><br /> 7 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-31-march-2026-07042026" data-id="CF175C3924F7492FA84FC81B4EBFEEEA" data-type="Article">COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026</a><br /> 1 April 2026: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/commodities/commodities-monthly-energy-surge-and-second-round-effects-dominate-as-metals-correct-01042026" data-id="20D9A0B8B0D54E958103C58FA7853B0B" data-type="Article">Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct</a><br /> <strong><span><br /> <br /> Educational resources:<br /> <a href="how-to-trade-crude-oil">A short guide to trading crude oil</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-wheat">The basics of trading wheat online</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-gold">A short guide to trading gold</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/commodities/how-to-trade-copper" target="_blank">A short guide to trading copper</a><br /> <a href="how-to-trade-silver">A short guide to trading silver</a><br /> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/learn/guides/investment-theme/gold-silver-and-platinum-are-precious-metals-a-safe-haven-investment" target="_blank">Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?</a><br /> </span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong><span><br /> Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast" target="_blank">here</a> </span></strong><strong><span><br /> </span></strong><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen" target="_blank">Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li>Follow and interact with me on <a href="https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/oleshansen.bsky.social">BlueSky</a> social media platforms</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Iran</span> <span>USA</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Copper</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:30:00 Z</p> <div class="article-excerpt">The S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak ended on 3 June, knocked back by higher oil, renewed US-Iran tension and a Broadcom AI-chip outlook that disappointed after the close. The index move was modest, but the options market reacted in a more telling way.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <p><em>A nine-day winning streak ended on oil, geopolitics and a Broadcom AI wobble, and the front end of the volatility curve woke up first.</em></p> <p>Renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and bond yields through the 3 June session while Broadcom’s AI-chip outlook disappointed after the close, ending Wall Street’s nine-session run and reintroducing event risk just as the market heads into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The headline move was modest, but underneath it the volatility term structure shifted in a way that matters more to options traders than the index level itself. The full macro picture is in Saxo’s <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---4-june-2026-04062026">Market Quick Take – 4 June 2026</a>.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> <ul> <li>S&P 500: 7,553.68 (-0.74%), ending a nine-session winning streak</li> <li>Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,687.07 (-1.21%)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite: 26,853.98 (-0.89%)</li> <li>10-year Treasury yield: 4.491% (+4.6bps), with crude near the upper end of Brent’s recent 90-100 dollar range</li> <li><strong>Market regime:</strong> Low vol bull – VIX 16.06, 20-day realised vol 9.9% (stable), S&P 500 +6.1% above its 50-day moving average</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options flow sentiment</strong></h2> <p><em>Based on end-of-day 3 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.</em></p> <p>Single-name flow leaned bullish, with confirmed-opening call demand concentrated in mega-cap tech and semiconductors; were those calls dealer-sold, market makers would hedge by buying the underlying, a mildly upside-supportive bias. Index and ETF flow told a more defensive story, with broad put demand across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor ETFs, suggesting portfolios are adding single-name upside while keeping index-level protection on.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Options angle</strong></h2> <p>The VIX closed at 16.06, up 1.84%, but the action was at the front end: the 1-day VIX jumped 29.3% to 11.48 as traders bid short-dated protection into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The term structure stayed upward-sloping (1-day 11.48, 9-day 13.41, 30-day 16.06), so the event premium is sitting in the very front rather than across the curve. SPX options price a move of roughly ±0.74% through Friday, and the front expiry still shows a moderate downside skew, with puts richer than equivalent calls but well below stress levels.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Calendar spread to harvest the front-end vol spike.</strong> With the 1-day VIX up nearly 29% while the 9-day and 30-day measures barely moved, the front of the term structure now carries most of the event premium. A calendar spread, selling a near-dated option and buying a longer-dated option at the same strike, profits if that elevated near-term implied volatility deflates once the data passes while the back-dated leg holds its value. Centre the strikes near spot and place the short leg in the expiry that captures payrolls. The main risk is a large directional move away from the chosen strike, which erodes both legs and can turn the structure into a loss.<br /> <br /> <strong>Important note: </strong>The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.</p> <p><strong>Strategy insight – Jade lizard to monetise the put skew in a bull regime.</strong> Moderate downside skew means index puts are priced richer than comparable calls, which rewards selling that premium while the low-vol-bull backdrop keeps a constructive lean intact. A jade lizard, a short out-of-the-money put plus a short out-of-the-money call spread, collects enough credit to remove upside risk entirely while leaving a defined downside exposure. It fits a neutral-to-mildly-bullish view better than an outright short put because the call spread cheapens the position without adding tail risk above. The main risk is a sharp decline below the short put strike, where losses build much like owning the underlying from that level.</p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>The low-vol bull regime is still intact, but the streak ending on oil, geopolitics and Broadcom’s AI wobble has pulled event risk into the next 48 hours. In our view the edge is in the shape of the curve, not the direction: front-end premium is rich against a still-calm back end, which favours selling near-dated event vol over chasing the move. That makes this an environment that rewards patience over conviction until payrolls clears the deck.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em> The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. <br /> This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.<br /> </em><br /> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >Related articles/content </th> </tr> <tr > <td ><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---chip-surge-new-sp-record---3-june-2026-03062026" data-id="EABF48B077D34B59B7CB631EB8EC1C53" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Chip surge new SP record - 3 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---tech-records-oil-whipsaw---2-june-2026-02062026" data-id="614E8ED359FB4EDF9B0142CBE4AA7542" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Tech records oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---snowflake-and-ai-lift-records---29-may-2026-29052026" data-id="8E611778963245A380379C1E9DAC0F1C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---iran-oil-swing-dow-record---28-may-2026-28052026" data-id="F4B69C48DD584E45A4C99EE42EEF1723" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Iran oil swing Dow record - 28 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---nasdaq-clears-30000---27-may-2026-27052026" data-id="70ECD5D1214E4CF5A77A108317853F86" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Nasdaq clears 30000 - 27 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---hormuz-hopes-douse-oil---26-may-2026-26052026" data-id="10922CCA41E44E2A89A767DE44FC5C4C" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Hormuz hopes douse oil - 26 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief--nvidia-beats-kospi-surges--21-may-2026-21052026" data-id="530C86E8C61C4E0AAC7B640425962A52" data-type="Article">Options Brief Nvidia beats KOSPI surges 21 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---all-eyes-on-nvda---20-may-2026-20052026" data-id="554644A886474FB880FCDB9F10BADE89" data-type="Article">Options Brief - All eyes on NVDA - 20 May 2026</a><br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/options/options-brief---bond-rout-chips-down---19-may-2026-19052026" data-id="593847D3A35E41A9B8501570D14C0D94" data-type="Article">Options Brief - Bond rout chips down - 19 May 2026</a><br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="content-menu" > <tbody> <tr> <th >More from the author </th> </tr> <tr > <td > <ul> <li> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo</a></li> <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://x.com/cottonfields" target="_blank">Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content</a></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/koen-hoorelbeke"><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Investment and Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Listed Options</span> <span>Income investor – Options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Learn about options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Getting Started with Options</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>AI winners hit a higher bar as investors ask tougher questions</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2> <ul> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span></p> <span> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><strong>Strong earnings are not always enough</strong> when valuations already expect near-perfect execution.</span></p> </span> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span ><strong>Artificial intelligence is boosting demand</strong>, but also lifting spending, competition and investor scrutiny.</span></p> </li> <li data-start="417" data-end="570"> <p><span></span></p> <p><span></span></p> <p><span><span ><strong></strong></span><span ><strong>The key lesson is to separate business quality from share-price</strong> expectations.</span></span></p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <span> </span> <p><span data-contrast="auto"></span></p> <h2></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3"> </h3> <p><span ></span></p> <p><span>Good earnings used to be the easy part. A company beat estimates, lifted guidance, smiled politely, and the share price usually did the rest. Not this week.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike all reported strong results around 2 and 3 June 2026. Each sits close to one of the market’s biggest themes: artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity and the infrastructure needed to run the digital economy. Yet their shares fell after the numbers.</span></p> <p><span>That is the useful lesson for investors. The market is not saying these businesses are broken. It is saying expectations are no longer cheap. When a theme becomes popular, investors stop asking “is this growing?” and start asking “is it growing fast enough, profitably enough, and clearly enough to justify the price?” Wall Street can be a demanding dinner guest.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The bar has moved higher</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Broadcom makes chips and infrastructure software. In simple terms, it supplies some of the parts that help data centres move, process and manage huge amounts of information. That matters because AI is not magic in the cloud. It is electricity, chips, networking equipment and software, stacked together at industrial scale.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom’s fiscal second-quarter results showed the strength of that demand. Revenue rose 48% to 22.2 billion USD, while AI semiconductor revenue jumped 143% to 10.8 billion USD. The company also guided for AI semiconductor revenue of 16.0 billion USD in the next quarter.</span></p> <p><span>Those numbers are not small. They are “finance department needs a bigger spreadsheet” numbers. But the shares still fell sharply in extended trading after revenue slightly missed Wall Street forecasts and the company kept its longer-term AI sales target broadly unchanged. That was enough to disappoint a market that had already priced in a lot of good news.</span></p> <p><span>This is the first common thread. In AI infrastructure, investors are rewarding acceleration, but they are punishing any hint that expectations have run ahead of reality. Broadcom is still growing fast. The question is whether the share price had already assumed even faster growth.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Cybersecurity is strong, but not simple</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike tell the same story from a different corner of technology. Both companies help organisations protect their systems, data and users from cyberattacks. As AI spreads, this job becomes more important. More digital tools create more doors. Cybercriminals, sadly, do not take long summer holidays.</span></p> <p><span>Palo Alto reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of 3.0 billion USD, up 31% from a year earlier. Its next-generation security annual recurring revenue, a measure of repeat subscription income from newer security products, rose 60% to 8.1 billion USD. Remaining performance obligation, which is contracted revenue not yet recognised, rose 36% to 18.4 billion USD.</span></p> <p><span>Again, strong numbers. Yet the stock fell. Part of the issue is that acquisitions boosted growth, including CyberArk and Chronosphere. Acquisitions can make a company stronger, but they also make the picture harder to read. Investors want to know how much growth comes from the original business and how much comes from buying another one. When that line becomes less clear, the market often reaches for a discount.</span></p> <p><span>CrowdStrike also beat expectations. The company reported first-quarter revenue of 1.39 billion USD and ending annual recurring revenue of 5.51 billion USD. It also raised its full-year revenue outlook. But its shares fell in extended trading after operating expenses rose 15%, partly as the company invests more in AI and product development.</span></p> <p><span>That is the second common thread. AI is not only a revenue opportunity. It is also a spending cycle. Companies need engineers, data, infrastructure, security tools and new products. The market likes investment when it creates growth, but it still wants proof that the growth will turn into durable profits.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The market reaction is not as strange as it looks</span></strong></h3> <p><span>For retail investors, the most important point is that share prices react to expectations, not just results. A good quarter can disappoint if investors expected a great one. A great quarter can disappoint if the valuation already assumed perfection. This is why earnings season can look irrational from the outside and painfully logical from the inside.</span></p> <p><span>Broadcom shows how AI hardware expectations have become extremely high. Palo Alto shows how cybersecurity investors now care about the quality and visibility of growth, not just the size of it. CrowdStrike shows that even strong recurring revenue can be overshadowed by rising costs if investors worry about margins.</span></p> <p><span>The broader industry message is clear. AI remains a powerful demand driver. Data centres need chips and networking. Companies need better security. Customers want platforms that do more with fewer tools. But the easy phase of the trade may be maturing. The next phase is about execution, pricing power and cash flow, not just attaching “AI” to a slide deck and hoping the stock market applauds.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Risks to watch</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The first risk is valuation. If a company trades at a high price because investors expect rapid growth, even a small disappointment can cause a large move. The early warning sign is a stock falling on good news.</span></p> <p><span>The second risk is spending discipline. AI can improve products, but it can also raise costs before it raises profits. Investors can watch whether operating margins, free cash flow and hiring trends support the growth story.</span></p> <p><span>The third risk is visibility. For acquisitive companies such as Palo Alto, investors need to understand what is organic growth and what is bought growth. Both can be valuable, but they are not the same thing.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Investor playbook</strong></h3> <ul > <li><span><strong>Watch whether guidance rises faster than expectations,</strong> not only whether it rises.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Compare revenue growth with margin trends</strong> to see whether scale is improving.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Separate AI demand stories from AI profit stories</strong>. They are cousins, not twins.</span></li> <li><span><strong>Treat sharp post-earnings moves as information about expectations</strong>, not automatic verdicts on quality.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The price of perfection</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The lesson from Broadcom, Palo Alto and CrowdStrike is not that strong technology companies suddenly became weak. It is that the market has become more selective. AI and cybersecurity remain important long-term themes, but popular themes can carry heavy expectations.<br /> <br /> For investors, the useful question is not whether a company has exposure to AI. Many do. The better question is whether that exposure creates profitable growth at a price that already leaves room for imperfection. Good businesses can still be expensive stocks. In a hot market, even excellent earnings may need to bring their own fire extinguisher.</span></p> <p><em > This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em></p> <span> <p><span _startoffset="0" _startindex="2" _endoffset="0" _endindex="2"><em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.</em></span></p> <p><em>The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.</em></p> </span></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/ruben-dalfovo"><div>Ruben Dalfovo</div><div>Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>UKMustRead</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Market Quick Take - 4 June 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:22:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h1 class="article-heading--1"><strong>Market Quick Take – 4 June 2026</strong></h1> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Market drivers and catalysts</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Equities</strong>: US and Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, Asia followed lower as investors trimmed risk after an artificial intelligence-led rally</li> <li><strong>Volatility:</strong> VIX rises, payrolls in focus, Middle East tensions, Broadcom disappoints</li> <li><strong>Digital Assets:</strong> Bitcoin near three-month lows, ETF outflows persist, crypto proxies weaker, hedging activity increases</li> <li><strong>Commodities</strong>: Gold bounces from key support (again), oil fluctuates on mixed Middle East signals</li> <li><strong>Fixed Income</strong>: Treasuries fall on strong ADP numbers</li> <li><strong>Currencies</strong>: Dollar stays firm on Middle East tensions; USDJPY near 160 again</li> <li><strong>Macro</strong>: Eurozone April Retail Sales & US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Macro</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>The Middle East crisis remains fluid.</strong> Following Wednesday's escalation, which saw US forces strike an Iran-bound tanker and Iran retaliate with attacks against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait as well as commercial shipping, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a conditional ceasefire. However, the broader regional conflict remains unresolved and risks to energy supplies persist. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that normally handles around one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, has recovered modestly but remains well below pre-conflict levels, continuing to support a significant geopolitical risk premium across energy markets.</li> <li><strong>The Republican-led House voted to curb US military involvement in Iran</strong>, marking a rare rebuke of President Trump and highlighting growing concerns within his own party about the economic and political costs of the conflict. While the resolution is unlikely to immediately affect military operations, as it still requires Senate approval, the vote underscores rising opposition to a prolonged war. </li> <li><strong>ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April</strong>, beating expectations and marking a three-month high. Business activity, new orders, and inventories strengthened, while employment contracted for a third month amid hiring freezes. Price pressures hit their highest since August 2022, driven by fuel and petroleum-related products, as backlog growth slowed and supplier delivery performance weakened further.</li> <li><strong>US private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May</strong>, the strongest gain since January 2025 and above expectations. Hiring was broad-based, led by education and health services and trade/transportation/utilities. Pay growth held at 4.4% for job-stayers and rose to 6.6% for job-switchers.</li> <li><strong>The US administration vowed to impose 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners</strong>, including the EU and UK, over alleged links to goods produced with forced labor. </li> <li><strong>US factory orders rose 4.8% in April to $662.7 billion</strong>, the strongest gain in 11 months and above expectations. Durable goods jumped 8%, led by a surge in nondefense aircraft and transportation, with gains in fabricated and primary metals, while computers and electronics slipped 0.7%. Nondurable goods orders increased 1.4%.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)</h4> <p>0730 – Germany May Construction PM<br /> 0900 – Eurozone April Retail Sales<br /> 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims<br /> 1430 – EIAs Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change</p> <p>Fed speakers: Barkin (1230), Bowman (1400), Daly (1540), Schmid (1700)-</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><strong>Earnings events</strong></h4> <ul> <li><strong>Wednesday</strong><strong> (</strong><strong>yesterday</strong><strong>)</strong>: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems</li> <li><strong>Thursday</strong><strong> (today)</strong>: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica</li> </ul> <p>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s <a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar.</a></p> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Equities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>USA</strong>: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,553.68, the Dow lost 1.2% to 50,687.07, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 26,853.98, snapping Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak as renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and bond yields. Broadcom fell about 13% after hours despite record revenue, as its artificial intelligence chip outlook missed very high expectations. CrowdStrike dropped almost 11% after costs rose with artificial intelligence investment, while PVH fell after cutting its outlook. Costco showed consumer resilience with May comparable sales up 12.5%. Markets now watch whether geopolitics starts to bite earnings expectations.</li> <li><strong>Europe</strong>: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% to 621.19, the DAX dropped 1.3%, the FTSE 100 lost 0.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.9% to 6,053.57 as Middle East risk, higher oil and private-market worries hit sentiment. Akzo Nobel plunged 17.2% after Sherwin-Williams and Nippon Paint dropped a possible takeover bid, while SAP fell 4.3% as software remained under pressure after a recent bounce. Inditex rose after stronger early summer sales reassured investors that Zara’s owner still has pricing and execution power. Markets now look to oil, inflation signals and whether defensive retail can keep carrying its small umbrella.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian equities traded lower on Thursday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.9%, and Korea’s Kospi down 2.6%, as Wall Street’s pullback and renewed US-Iran tension pushed investors into risk control mode. Hong Kong also stayed under pressure after the Hang Seng fell around 1.6% on Wednesday, while Taiwan’s Taiex had risen 2.0% after Goldman Sachs upgraded Taiwan to overweight. SoftBank lost 5.8% and Fujikura fell 6.7% as Japanese technology and metals names took profits. Asia now watches oil, geopolitics and whether the artificial intelligence trade pauses without breaking.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Volatility</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Volatility picked up on Wednesday,</strong> but the broader message from the options market remains one of caution rather than stress. The VIX closed at <strong>16.06 (+1.84%)</strong>, while the 1-day VIX jumped <strong>29.3%</strong> to <strong>11.48</strong>, reflecting increased demand for short-term protection ahead of today’s US jobless claims report and Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls release. Investors are also monitoring developments in the Middle East after renewed US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and weighed on risk sentiment. Adding to the cautious tone, Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected outlook has raised fresh questions about whether the AI-driven rally can maintain its recent momentum.</li> <li>Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of approximately <strong>±55.6 points, or ±0.74%, through Friday’s close</strong>. </li> <li>Today’s SPX expiration continues to show a <strong>moderate downside skew</strong>, with investors paying higher premiums for protective puts than for comparable upside calls. While that suggests continued demand for portfolio insurance, the skew remains well below levels typically associated with market stress, indicating investors are hedging risks rather than preparing for a major correction.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Digital Assets</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Digital assets remained under pressure as investors reduced risk exposure </strong>amid rising geopolitical tensions, persistent ETF outflows and a stronger focus on macroeconomic risks. Bitcoin traded near <strong>$64,000</strong>, hovering around its lowest level since late February, while Ethereum slipped below <strong>$1,800</strong>. Among major altcoins, Solana fell <strong>1.7%</strong>, XRP lost <strong>0.8%</strong>, and Ethereum continued to underperform Bitcoin as investors favoured relative safety within the crypto market.</li> <li>Crypto-related equities reflected the same cautious mood. <strong>IBIT</strong> fell <strong>2.8%</strong>, while <strong>ETHA</strong> declined <strong>5.6%</strong>, highlighting the recent weakness in Ethereum-linked assets. More leveraged crypto proxies experienced larger losses, including <strong>Coinbase (-6.2%)</strong>, <strong>MicroStrategy (-7.0%)</strong>, and <strong>Circle (-10.6%)</strong>. The main headwinds remain ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and concerns that resilient US economic data could keep interest rates higher for longer.</li> <li>Despite the weakness in prices, options activity suggests investors are not abandoning the asset class. Significant downside protection appeared in MicroStrategy, Coinbase and Circle, while selective upside exposure remained visible through call buying in IBIT and ETHA. The overall picture points to a market that remains constructive on the long-term outlook for digital assets, <strong>but is becoming more selective and defensive in the near term</strong>.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Commodities</strong></h2> <ul> <li><strong>Gold fell to test its 200-day moving average once again on Wednesday </strong>as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Those losses were reversed in early trading on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon announced a conditional ceasefire. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with steady central bank demand being offset by ETF outflows and short-term momentum traders positioning for a deeper correction. Key focus remains on support around USD 4,425, developments in the Middle East and oil market, as well as incoming US data following the recent hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations.</li> <li><strong>Crude oil trades softer but remains near the upper end of Brent's recent USD 90–100 range</strong> after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announcement. The move follows another day of US and Iranian military action across the region. While flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted, global supply buffers continue to shrink. In the US, a sixth consecutive weekly inventory draw saw stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery hub for WTI futures, fall to 22.4 million barrels, edging closer to levels widely considered near the operational minimum. It’s helping to keep the prompt spread elevated with the July futures contract trading USD 3.25 above August. </li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Fixed Income</strong></h2> <ul> <li>The <strong>US Treasury yield curve</strong> shifted higher, with the 10-year yield rising 4.6 basis points to 4.491% — its largest single-day increase since 19 May — and the 30-year yield climbing 3.4 basis points to 4.989%. The move was driven by stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls data and rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations the Fed could hike rates at the June 16–17 meeting.</li> <li>Around six companies were eyeing new bond sales in the US investment-grade primary market on Wednesday, following a busy week that saw 24 deals raise over $36 billion. Bank of New Zealand announced a new benchmark two-tranche yankee offering.</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong>Currencies</strong></h2> <ul> <li>FX moves are being driven by renewed demand for the <strong>USD</strong> as escalating Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks prompt a flight to safety, reinforced by hawkish Fed commentary. <strong>Dollar Index</strong> rose 0.33% to 96.12, its biggest daily gain since May 19 and a third straight advance.</li> <li><strong>EURUSD</strong> saw its largest drop since May 19, falling to $1.1598 (lowest 5pm NY since early April) before stabilising around 1.1611.</li> <li><strong>USDJPY</strong> briefly dipped to 159.83 after headlines that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, but is trading just under 160, last near 159.92.</li> <li><strong>AUDUSD</strong> tumbled on the Hormuz-driven USD spike but is now around 0.7137, up slightly from 0.7129.</li> <li><strong>NZDUSD</strong> plunged on hawkish Fed remarks and is trading near 0.5930.</li> <li><strong>USDMXN</strong> rose 0.30% to 17.3411, while <strong>USDCAD</strong> gained 0.41% to 1.3897, both their largest one-day advances in weeks.</li> </ul></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><em>This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.</em> <br /> <em>The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..</em></div></div><div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span></span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy Sector</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Apple’s big AI moment: Can Siri finally sell the next iPhone?</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:00:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2"><strong><span class="underline; ">Key points:</span></strong></h2> <ul > <li><strong><span>Apple’s next big test is WWDC on 8 June</span></strong><span>, where investors expect a major Siri and AI upgrade that could shape the next leg of the iPhone cycle. </span></li> <li><strong><span>The numbers are strong, but the bar is higher now:</span></strong><span> Apple’s March-quarter revenue rose <strong>17% y/y to $111.2bn</strong>, EPS rose <strong>22% y/y</strong>, and iPhone revenue hit a March-quarter record. </span></li> <li><strong><span>Valuation already prices in a lot of optimism:</span></strong><span> Apple trades around <strong>$315</strong>, with a market cap above <strong>$4.6tn</strong> and a PE ratio of about <strong>38x</strong>, so AI execution matters more than AI promises. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><hr /> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Apple’s big question: is AI finally becoming an iPhone story?</span></h2> <p><span>Apple has never needed to be first. It usually lets others race ahead, waits for the technology to become useful, then packages it for the mainstream.</span></p> <p><span>That playbook worked for smartphones, watches, payments and earbuds. But AI is different because the market has already picked several winners. Nvidia owns the infrastructure narrative. Microsoft and Google have moved quickly in productivity and search. Meta is pushing AI across social, ads and devices.</span></p> <p><span>Apple, meanwhile, has been treated as the elegant giant that is still trying to find its AI voice.</span></p> <p><span>That is why WWDC matters. It is not just a developer event. It is Apple’s chance to show that AI can become part of everyday device behaviour — not another app, not another chatbot, but a reason to keep buying into the Apple ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>The curiosity point for investors is simple:<strong> can Siri finally become useful enough to matter for Apple’s earnings story?</strong></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>What investors expect at WWDC</span></h2> <p><span>Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference begins on <strong>8 June</strong>, and the main focus is expected to be a major Siri overhaul. Reports suggest the new Siri could become more conversational, more capable of handling complex tasks, and more deeply integrated across Apple’s operating systems. AI features are also expected across writing tools, search, photos and system-level functions. </span></p> <p><span>For investors, this is not just a software event. It is potentially a test of whether Apple can turn AI into a consumer upgrade cycle.</span></p> <p><span>The market wants to see three things:</span></p> <ol start="1"> <li><strong><span>A smarter Siri</span></strong><span> that feels materially better, not just cosmetically improved. </span></li> <li><strong><span>On-device AI</span></strong><span> that strengthens Apple’s privacy and ecosystem advantage. </span></li> <li><strong><span>A reason to upgrade</span></strong><span> to newer iPhones, Macs and iPads. </span></li> </ol> <p><span>Apple does not need to win the AI data-centre race. It needs to win the AI distribution race.</span></p> <p><span>The market will be watching whether Siri can move from “answering questions” to <strong>taking actions</strong> — across messages, calendar, email, photos, maps, apps and search. That would make AI less of a separate product and more of a new layer of the operating system.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Why this matters for Apple</span></h2> <p><span>Apple is not entering WWDC from a position of weakness — and that is exactly why expectations are demanding.</span></p> <ul > <li><span>In its fiscal second quarter ended <strong>28 March 2026</strong>, Apple revenue rose <strong>17% y/y to $111.2bn</strong>, while diluted EPS rose <strong>22% y/y to $2.01</strong>. The company also reported March-quarter records for total revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS, with Services revenue reaching an all-time high. </span></li> <li><span>But the broader smartphone backdrop remains difficult. The market is still dealing with demand softness and supply-chain constraints, while reports suggest Apple shipments could be broadly flat in 2026 before rising <strong>5% in 2027</strong>. </span></li> <li><span>That puts more pressure on AI to become a real upgrade driver. A better Siri, stronger on-device AI and features that work best on newer chips could help Apple defend premium pricing and support the next iPhone replacement cycle. </span></li> <li><span>The stock has already priced in a lot of this hope. Apple has recently traded around <strong>$310–315</strong>, with a market cap near <strong>$4.6tn</strong> and a trailing PE ratio around <strong>37–38x</strong>. Barron’s also noted that the stock rose <strong>17% in May</strong>, helped by earnings strength and AI optimism. </span></li> </ul> <p><span>So WWDC is not about whether Apple can surprise from a low base. It is about whether Apple can show enough AI progress to justify a premium valuation.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>A simple positioning framework for investors</span></h2> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Bull case: Apple proves it can be a consumer AI platform</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><span>Siri feels genuinely useful, deeply integrated, privacy-led and upgrade-worthy. </span></li> <li><span>Apple starts to look less like an AI laggard and more like a company that can bring AI to the mainstream. </span></li> <li><span>The stock could extend higher as the AI narrative moves from promise to product. </span></li> <li><span>For investors already exposed, this would support staying with core exposure. </span></li> <li><span>Fresh exposure would be more compelling if the event confirms that AI can support the next iPhone upgrade cycle, rather than just create keynote excitement. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Base case: Apple shows progress, but the rollout is still gradual</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><span>AI features look solid, but not game-changing yet. </span></li> <li><span>This may defend the long-term ecosystem story, but may not be enough for a major re-rating. </span></li> <li><span>The stock could chop or fade after the event, especially after its recent run. </span></li> <li><span>A balanced approach would be to avoid chasing into the keynote and wait for evidence in future earnings calls. </span></li> <li><span>The key proof point would be whether AI starts to show up in upgrade momentum, Services engagement and developer adoption. </span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Bear case: Apple’s AI still feels behind</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><span>Features feel incremental, delayed, or less compelling than what users already get from Google, OpenAI or other AI assistants. </span></li> <li><span>The “AI laggard” narrative could return. </span></li> <li><span>A premium valuation would become harder to defend. </span></li> <li><span>Investors may prefer to wait for a better entry point or reassess exposure if the stock rallies into the event without enough product confirmation. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>The bigger point:</span></strong><span> WWDC may shape the near-term narrative, but this is not only a one-day trade. The real proof will come later through iPhone demand, device upgrades, Services engagement and developer adoption.</span></p> <p><strong><span> </span></strong></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Risks to the view</span></h2> <p><span>There are three main risks.</span></p> <p><span>First, WWDC could disappoint if the Siri upgrade feels incremental. Apple has had AI expectations before, and investors may not give it unlimited patience.</span></p> <p><span>Second, China remains a key swing factor. Premium demand has been resilient, but competition from Huawei and other local brands remains intense.</span></p> <p><span>Third, valuation risk is real. At around <strong>37–38x earnings</strong>, Apple can still perform if earnings momentum improves, but the margin for disappointment is thinner.</span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Bottom line</span></h2> <p><span>Apple’s WWDC is shaping up as a test of whether AI can become the next layer of the Apple ecosystem.</span></p> <p><span>The company already has the installed base, brand loyalty, Services engine and balance sheet. What investors need now is proof that Apple can make AI mainstream in a way that actually changes user behaviour.</span></p> <p><span>The bull case is that Siri becomes the gateway to a new iPhone upgrade cycle.</span></p> <p><span>The risk is that WWDC becomes another polished Apple event that leaves investors asking: nice, but where is the urgency?</span></p> <p><span>For a stock already trading at a premium, Apple does not just need to show AI. It needs to show why AI makes the next iPhone cycle harder to ignore.</span></p> <hr /> <br /></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Chief Investment Strategist</div><div>Saxo</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Artificial Intelligence</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span></div> </article> <article> <h1>Asia Market Quick Take – 04 June, 2026</h1> <p>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 02:52:00 Z</p> <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>K</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ey points:</span></strong></span><span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span><span>US-Iran tensions escalate; Iran hits US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span><span>Broadcom down 13% after-hours on AI chip outlook miss</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span><span> Dollar stays firm on Middle East tensions; USDJPY near 160 again </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Commodities: </span></strong></span><span>Oil extends gains and gold slips on dollar strength</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong></span><span>Treasuries fall on strong ADP numbers</span></li> </ul> <p><span>------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span></span></p> <p><span><em><span>Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.</span></em></span><span></span></p> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span><strong><span>Escalating US–Iran tensions are undermining prospects for a peace deal and normal Middle Eastern energy flows. After a US strike on an Iran-bound tanker, Iran hit US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait and targeted commercial ships.</span></strong></span><span> Strait of Hormuz traffic—vital for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG—remains below pre-conflict levels despite a recent modest pickup.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April</span></strong></span><span>, beating expectations and marking a three-month high. Business activity, new orders, and inventories strengthened, while employment contracted for a third month amid hiring freezes. Price pressures hit their highest since August 2022, driven by fuel and petroleum-related products, as backlog growth slowed and supplier delivery performance weakened further.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May</span></strong></span><span>, the strongest gain since January 2025 and above expectations. Hiring was broad-based, led by education and health services and trade/transportation/utilities, while natural resources/mining and information lost jobs. Small firms added 67,000 jobs, large 40,000, and midsize 17,000. Pay growth held at 4.4% for job-stayers and rose to 6.6% for job-switchers.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>The US administration vowed to impose 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners</span></strong></span><span>, including the EU and UK, over alleged links to goods produced with forced labor.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>US factory orders rose 4.8% in April to $662.7 billion</span></strong></span><span>, the strongest gain in 11 months and above expectations. Durable goods jumped 8%, led by a surge in nondefense aircraft and transportation, with gains in fabricated and primary metals, while computers and electronics slipped 0.7%. Nondurable goods orders increased 1.4%.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>US</strong>: Wall Street snapped a nine-day winning streak on Wednesday as renewed US-Iran clashes drove oil higher. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Dow dropped 1.2% (over 600 points) and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 26,853.98 — its largest single-day decline since 15 May. In after-hours trade, <strong>Broadcom fell 13% aftermarket despite reporting record Q2 revenue of $22.2 billion and Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion that beat consensus, as the AI chip revenue outlook disappointed elevated expectations.</strong> PVH sank 21% after hours. CrowdStrike fell 10% after reporting a 15% jump in Q1 operating expenses. Costco reported May comparable sales up 12.5%, while Veeva reported solid Q1 results though shares dipped on profit-taking.</li> <li><strong>EU</strong>: European equities fell Wednesday as escalating Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7%, the DAX shed 1.3%, the FTSE 100 declined 0.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.9% to 6,053.57. Akzo Nobel was the session's worst performer, plunging 17.2%. SAP fell 4.3%. Inditex bucked the trend, rising 5.6% after reporting reassuring earnings. Post-close, Hochtief was confirmed as a new DAX constituent, replacing Porsche Automobil Holding from 22 June. Aberdeen, Computacenter and Investec were confirmed as new FTSE 100 additions.</li> <li><strong>Asia</strong>: Asian markets are trading lower Thursday morning, tracking Wall Street's overnight decline and the deterioration in US-Iran ceasefire prospects. The Kospi opened sharply lower, falling 2% to 8,623.82, giving back some of its extraordinary year-to-date gains of over 100%. The Hang Seng was down approximately 1.6% in Wednesday's session. T<strong>he Taiex had risen 2% on Wednesday, led by semiconductors, after Goldman Sachs upgraded Taiwan to overweight with a 12-month target of 51,000 </strong>and raised its Kospi target to 12,000. South Korea's market capitalisation has surpassed India's to become the world's sixth largest. The Nikkei and STI are also under pressure as risk-off sentiment dominates the open.</li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Earnings this week:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> Ciena, Samsara, Planet Labs, Lululemon, Rubrik</span></li> <li><strong><span>Friday:</span></strong><span> Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group</span></li> </ul> <span> <p><span><strong><span>FX:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>FX moves are being driven by renewed demand for the <strong>USD</strong> as escalating Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks prompt a flight to safety, reinforced by hawkish Fed commentary. Dollar Index rose 0.33% to 96.12, its biggest daily gain since May 19 and a third straight advance. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>EURUSD</span></strong></span><span> saw its largest drop since May 19, falling to $1.1598 (lowest 5pm NY since early April) before stabilising around 1.1611. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDJPY</span></strong></span><span> briefly dipped to 159.83 after headlines that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, but is trading just under 160, last near 159.92. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>AUDUSD</span></strong></span><span> tumbled on the Hormuz-driven USD spike but is now around 0.7137, up slightly from 0.7129. </span></li> <li><span><strong><span>NZDUSD</span></strong></span><span> plunged on hawkish Fed remarks and is trading near 0.5930.</span></li> <li><span><strong><span>USDMXN</span></strong></span><span> rose 0.30% to 17.3411, while <strong>USDCAD</strong> gained 0.41% to 1.3897, both their largest one</span>‑<span>day advances in weeks.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Brent crude </span></strong><span>rose approximately 2% to around $97.81–$98.50 a barrel, extending a three-day rally as the US and Iran exchanged retaliatory strikes and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged supply disruption.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Gold </span></strong><span>and <strong>silver </strong>declined as the US dollar rose alongside Treasury yields, with the energy shock and stronger-than-expected jobs data supporting a more hawkish Fed outlook. The pullback came despite gold's traditional safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions.</span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong></span><span><strong><span></span></strong></span></p> <ul> <li><span>The <strong>US Treasury yield curve</strong> shifted higher, with the 10-year yield rising 4.6 basis points to 4.491% — its largest single-day increase since 19 May — and the 30-year yield climbing 3.4 basis points to 4.989%. The move was driven by stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls data and rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations the Fed could hike rates at the June 16–17 meeting.</span></li> <li><span>Around six companies were eyeing new bond sales in the US investment-grade primary market on Wednesday, following a busy week that saw 24 deals raise over $36 billion. Bank of New Zealand announced a new benchmark two-tranche yankee offering. </span></li> </ul> <p><span><strong><span> </span></strong></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets – go to </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration"><span>Inspiration</span></a><span>.<strong></strong></span><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span>This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.</span></em><br /> <em><span>The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.</span></em></p> </span></div></div><div><div>APAC Research</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span></span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span> <span>GST</span></div> </article> </main></body></html>