APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Wed 27 Nov 2019: Hi Ho Silver...

Macro 1 minute to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


(Note that these are solely the views & opinions, they do not constitute any trade or investment advice of any kind.)

To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

 

Happy Macro Wed 27 Nov 2019: Pause Button = Fed (for now)

So we had two FOMC members on tape o/n, Powell & Brainard...

Powell pretty much said the glass is half full, giving a positive take on the state of the US economy. Again as per his testimony from two wks back – for now, the pause button is firm pressed at the Fed 

Brainard was also constructive on the economy, noting also that we still have not gotten the full effect of the three cuts this year

To see the full transcripts of their speeches please click here Brainard & Powell


Meanwhile the script is that equity markets continue to lift higher on news of further talks between Trump & Xi

So easy question, if the trade deal is as good as done, the Fed is happy with where things are, US flash PMIs bounced back strongly last wk, equities are up, volatility is down, then why are bond yields moving lower?

-

Overnight econ data saw a mixed skew

NZ 3Q retail sales beat very strongly at +1.6%a 0.5%e 0.2%p – part of this is being attributed to the Rugby world cup, where the sensational All-Blacks picked up a bronze

Sticking with the beats, US house prices ticked up +0.6%a 0.5%e, whilst new home sales saw strong beat & upward revision at 733k a 708k e 738k p

On the misses, US CB consumer confidence missed a touch 125.5a 126.9e 162.1p. Richmond mfg. big miss at -1a 6e 8p. UK high street lending missed at 41.2k a 43.1k e & 424.2k p – this potentially correlates with the big flash PMIs misses we got last wk from the UK

Worth noting that BoJ Core CPI also missed at +0.3%a +0.4%e +0.3%p


-

Cross-Asset Snapshot:

On equities, the bulls continue to have the field in the US & EU

S&P closed +0.22% at 3140, with Nasdaq-100 +0.17% to 8386. CAC40 +0.16% 5928. FTSE MIB  +0.34% 23547

In Asia’s tue session, the ASX 200 was the outperformer at +0.83% 6788. The HSI (despite 9988 Alibaba’s HK successful listing & pop, +6.6% first day to 187.60 [176 was IPO strike]) reversed itself quite strongly into the close, finishing -0.29% to 26913

DXY not much to see, we were +5bp on Mon & -7bp on Tue (yawn)

Underneath the still waters of the USD, we do have a lot more activity – G10 saw big move on the SEK +0.50% vs. the USD, followed by CAD 1.3271 & NZD 0.6429 at +0.21% & +0.16% (Yes, our long kiwi crosses bias from last wk’s Macro Monday was very well timed)

On the flipside GBP 1.2864 & JPY 109.03 lost -0.26% & -0.11%

On EM FX, INR was the outlier with a +0.35% gain vs. the USD. Yet the likes of the Brazilian real 4.2386 +0.27%, Lira 5.7576 +0.30% & Mexican Peso 19.5191 +0.38% were on the backfoot vs the Trumpback

After over 2wks of dislocation between precious metals & lower yields – we started to get some sparkles overnight as USTs troughed to 1.7294, before reversing to these 1.7414 lvls

Gold recouped most of Monday’s loses with a +0.42% to 1461. Silver not to be outdone, clocked +1.10% to 17.0765

It’s the everything up market! No wait… volatility was lower, as VIX closed at 11.54 -2.8% for the session


-

It’s a brilliant day & its only going to get more epic – lastly, Happy Thanksgiving remember the US is out tmr & most folks bridge to the wkd…

There is always a trade somewhere

Namaste

-KVP


Today:

  • NZ: Trade Balance in at -1013m a -1000m e
  • AU: Construction Work Done
  • US: Durable Goods, Core PCE Price Index, Secondary 3Q GDP reading 1.9%e/p, Unemployment Claims (note its out today, as Thu is US public holiday), Personal Spending, Personal Income, Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, Beige Book

 

Other:

Some Pieces From the Rest of the SaxoStrats Squad

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
3 Church Street, #30-00
Samsung Hub
Singapore 049483

All departments are available 08:30 to 17:30 Monday to Friday.

Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.