Global Macro Strategist
Summary: So wk ahead from macro perspective will be on Flash PMIs, as well as mins across the board from RBA, ECB & the FOMC. Also countdown for Alibaba listing in HK, which should be next Tues (Nov 26 & yes, Saxo will have shares & CFDs ready to go from day one). Geopolitics is on the same themes: US / CH Phase One Deal almost done (risk to the downside? Long rumour / short fact?), HK heating up, Impeach Investigation cont. Rate decisions SA, ID & HK.
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations)
2019-Nov-18
A replay of the call is available HERE
VIX: 12.05, -53%
Wishing everyone a great wk ahead, keep in mind that back end of next wk is Thanksgiving in the US
Namaste
-KVP
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Summary of Prior Week:
Trump speech calling for neg. rates & going after Fed again
Powell Testimony: US economy is the star economy. Cont. to have base case of reasonable growth. Risks remain the same, sluggish global growth, trade developments & low CPI
Current Fed = Sidelines
COT Report: [@Ole_S_Hansen]
Week Ahead
Key Focus:
Central Banks (SGT):
FOMC Speakers (SGT):
Other (SGT):
Econ Data:
Chartography & Price Action
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
