APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Wed 16 Oct 2019: The day could get ugly for bulls & beautiful for bears...

Macro 1 minute to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


All market updates, research and trade ideas from our strategists in Copenhagen, Paris, Singapore and Sydney can be found at home.saxo => Traders => Market Analysis.

Latest Macro Monday: "Phase One" - here we go again... 

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP/sender of this email & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations.)

 

Happy Macro Wed 16 Oct 2019

 

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – The day could get ugly for bulls & beautiful for bears...

Again, the whole “Here We Go Again” seems applicable on a daily basis in the cross-asset & geographic agnostic world of Global Macro Investing…

I was wondering why I was running so late this morning, yet as Master Oogway wisely said “there are no accidents”. (good adage to keep in mind for how we position our portfolios, allocate our investments & more importantly live our lives)

Yet it now all seems linked to some news that has just come out this Asia Weds morning.

After a positive o/n session that saw US equities close up +1.0% with the S&P at 2996, we are now down c. -0.20% in the Asia session on what could be a big monkey wrench in Trump's "art of the deal".

It looks like congress may be looking to pass a Hong Kong bill that could include sanctions on HK & perhaps CH officials, & especially most alarmingly  - If you are HK based & have exposure to not just equities but property - to HK’s special trading status – this is all linked to the demonstrators on the street.

Once again, rule number one of momentum, the next move is likely in the direction of the last move. The situation in HK almost certainly gets worse before it gets better. And its also likely to be one of those situations where the adage be careful what you wish for, comes to mind. 

Going back to the US, one of the few points of common ground between the two parties is on being tougher on China – so there could be support in both the house & senate here - the threat is real.

Whilst anything is always possible, hard to see how a bill on HK could come into fruition, whilst on a parallel stream Trump still manages to do a deal with Xi.


I am very surprised that Nikkei futures  22500 are still up +1.4% & DollarYen 108.65 is only down -18bp


This is likely to be a very bearish day…

Usual suspects… Gold, Silver, JPY, CHF & bond futures to lift…

Equity futures & the likes of AUD & NZD on the backfoot… again caveat in all this…

It’s a headline market… so stay close to the screens if you are doing anything tactical.


For the long-term investors, you can get back to reading your papers, resorts & bottoms up research…  you are all gonna live even longer than the rest of us

Hang Seng open could get ugly, currently futures looking down c. -3% before the local 09:30 open

Good luck out there… stay profitable


Today:

  • UK: CPI & PPI, Carney speaking at 21:00 SGT/HKT (09:00ET)
  • EZ: Final CPI 0.9%e CORE 1.0%e, TB, Bond auction (30yr)
  • CA: CPI
  • US: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Beige Book

Other:

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
3 Church Street, #30-00
Samsung Hub
Singapore 049483

All departments are available 08:30 to 17:30 Monday to Friday.

Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.