Login Open account
Singapore
Oil bulls capitulate against a wall of supply Oil bulls capitulate against a wall of supply Oil bulls capitulate against a wall of supply

Oil bulls capitulate against a wall of supply

Commodities
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Crude prices capitulated Tuesday as Opec's Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed that rising production from non-Opec producers has slashed demand for Opec’s oil against a backdrop of demand growth fears into 2019.

The rout in crude oil accelerated yesterday when Opec's Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed what bulls increasingly had come to fear. Surging production from non-Opec producers, especially the US and Russia, and reduced demand for Opec’s own oil at a time when the market was already troubled by signs of slowing demand growth into 2019. Adding to this, we have the reduced impact of US sanctions against Iran’s export ability after Washington unexpectedly granted waivers for some countries, including some of the world’s biggest buyers. 

The 7% drop in WTI crude oil and 6.6% drop in Brent were the worst one-day losses for these benchmarks in three years. It looked like a classic capitulation move with bulls finally throwing in the towel following weeks of relentless selling. It now raises the question of whether the market has overshot to the downside, just like Brent did to the upside at the beginning of October when it hit $87/barrel. 

The International Energy Agency's November Oil Market Report released earlier today confirmed the ongoing trend of rising non-Opec production while demand growth was kept close to unchanged as a weaker economic outlook into 2019 was being offset by lower oil prices. To this, the IEA said "oil demand is slowing in several non-OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity". On supply, the report stated said "global oil supplies are growing rapidly, as record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offsets declines from Iran and Venezuela. October output was up 2.6 million barrels/day on a year ago. Non-Opec output will grow by 2.4 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2019".

The below charts combined the monthly data from Opec, IEA, and the EIA. They show the clear trend of rising non-Opec supply hitting a market where demand growth is stable to lower. The 2019 balance continues to show a rising surplus and this has led the IEA to forecast an implied stock build of 2 mb/d in the first half of next year, all things being equal (i.e. that we do not see unexpected supply disruptions from produces such as Libya, Nigeria and Iraq).
Crude oil 2018 and 2019
Crude oil has found a bid after the IEA report highlighted the potential positive demand impact of the recent price slump and news reported by Reuters that Opec and its partners are considering a supply cut of up to 1.4 mb/d. 

Several oil producers can ill afford the 25% slump witnessed since early October and on that basis we can expect both Opec and Russia to step up their attempts to stop the rout and guide crude oil higher towards their preferred comfort zone between $70/b and $80/b. 
Crude oil
From friend to foe…

For these efforts to be successful, Opec and its partners need to see hedge funds playing a supporting role and returning to the market on the buy side. Following six weeks of selling up until November 6, funds held a combined net-long in Brent and WTI of 420,000 lots, a 16-month low and well below the record 1.1 million lots seen back in March.

The position impact of yesterday’s sharp sell-off will not be known until this Friday after the close when the CFTC releases its next COT report covering the week to November 13.
Crude oil
Please note that the weekly stock report from the EIA is delayed until Thursday, November 15, at 16:00 GMT.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

2024: The wasted year

01 / 05

Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

Read article

FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

Read article

Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.

Read article

Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.

Read article

Commodities: Is the correction over?

Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

Read article

  • Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article

  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article

  • Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

    Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.

    Read article

  • Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

    With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.

    Read article

  • Commodities: Is the correction over?

    Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

    Read article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore
Products & pricing
Asset Management
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you understand the risks.

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.