Head of Commodity Strategy
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Leveraged funds continued to sell energy and metals during the week to August 21. Grain traders were net-buyers as they continued to struggle to find the direction amid mixed signals. Soft commodities led by the Brazilian real-dependent commodities of sugar and coffee continued to be sold.
As it turned out it was also a week where funds got wrong-footed by the market. Oil, gold, coffee and sugar were all sold into a rising market while soybeans and corn were bought into a falling market.
The gold net-short hit a fresh record after the first signs buying was more than offset by additional short-selling. The net-short at 79,000 lots was more than three times the size of the previous record from December 2015. The silver short jumped by 26% but stayed well below the previous record.
HG copper was bought for a second week. This came despite seeing the price drop to a 14-month low before recovering on Asian LME stock draws and a weaker dollar. The limited amount, however, still highlights a market that remains concerned about the impact of trade war.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
