Focus has returned to Iran where the drop in supply is well under way and likely to accelerate over the coming months as US sanctions increasingly force customers to look for supplies elsewhere. As Iran’s ability to export drops, the anti-US rhetoric from Tehran is likely to increase thereby also raising some concerns about the stability in the region.
“Iran says Israel, U.S. will be targeted if Washington attacks” is the headline from this Reuters article
quoting a senior Iranian cleric.
Tanker tracking data from Platts
show that Iran’s crude oil exports have fallen sharply during the first half of August. During this time they saw 1.68 million b/d being exported, some 640,000 b/d below the average for July. This will undoubtedly raise pressure on the remaining Opec members and also raise the question whether they will be able to meet the potential shortfall – not only from Iran but also from Venezuela which continues to deteriorate.
Also driving the market higher today is speculation that the Weekly Petroleum Status Report
from the US Energy Information Administration due at 14:30 GMT may show a bigger than expected drop in crude stocks. This comes after API reported a 5.2 million barrel drop in US crude stocks.
Estimating weekly crude stocks has become increasingly difficult following the rise in US exports during the past couple of years. This seems to have increased the volatility in the weekly net import figure and it is here we normally find the main reason for a discrepancy.