QUARTERLY OUTLOOK

Q3 Outlook: USD-negative trade war

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John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy
John Hardy joined Saxo Bank in 2002 and has been Head of FX Strategy since October 2007. He focuses on delivering strategies and analyses in the currency market as defined by fundamentals, changes in macroeconomic themes, and technical developments.

The market got a bit ahead of itself in positioning for further strength in the euro and weakness in the US dollar in Q2. But after the enormous correction and USD rally, we look for the USD to find a top in the second half of the year and to begin heading lower again. The world can’t afford a strong dollar and once the Trump tax and fiscal stimulus fades, the US will have a hard time finding the USD buyers to offset it enormous external imbalances.

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