COT: Dollar sold ahead of dovish ECB surge

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy
Ole Hansen joined Saxo Bank in 2008 and has been Head of Commodity Strategy since 2010. He focuses on delivering strategies and analyses of the global commodity markets defined by fundamentals, market sentiment and technical developments.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending June 12, click here.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending June 12, click here.


The speculative dollar short against nine IMM currency futures increased by 29% in the week to June 12. This before its explosive move higher last Thursday following the European Central Bank meeting.. 

The net dollar selling was broad-based with the exception of EUR and not least MXN where bearish bets doubled as uncertainty about NAFTA weighed. Despite trading weaker, traders still bought JPY which took the net-long to a seven-month high. 

In fixed income the overall short duration of bonds held by leveraged funds were reduced for a fourth week. The CFTC reporting period up until last Tuesday captured the sharp short covering rally on June 7 in US 10s while curve flattening trades continued to be in demand ahead of last week’s Federal Open Market Committee rate hike.

You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd. (“SCM SG”) may distribute information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, SCM SG accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact SCM SG at +65 6303 7800 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication. 

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)