Asia Market Quick Take – November 14, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Fed voters cautious/ mixed regarding rate cuts
• Equities: Markets fell on profit taking led by Tech; Disney dropped 7.8% after earnings
• FX: CHF leads G10 gains; USDCHF dips to 0.7909 amid dollar sell-off
• Commodities: Oil set for a third weekly loss on oversupply signals
• Fixed income: US Treasuries fell, led by the long end; curve steepened after a 30Y auction

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• The UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below the 0.2% forecast. The production sector contracted by 0.5%, with manufacturing down 0.8%, partly due to a cyberattack affecting Jaguar Land Rover. Services grew 0.2%, supported by arts and real estate, while construction output was up 0.1%. Annual GDP rose by 1.3%, slightly below the expected 1.4%.
• China's new yuan loans fell sharply to CNY 220 billion in October 2025, down from September's CNY 1290 billion and below expectations of CNY 500 billion, reflecting weak credit demand. Household loans dropped by CNY 360.4 billion and corporate loans to CNY 350 billion. Total social financing decreased to CNY 810 billion from CNY 3530 billion in September. Loan growth slowed to 6.5%, the lowest since 1998, below the forecast of 6.6% and last year's 7.8%.
• Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month in September 2025, recovering from a 1.1% decline in August but missing the expected 0.7% growth. Energy, capital, and intermediate goods rose, while durable and non-durable consumer goods fell. Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands saw increases, but Ireland reported a 9.4% drop. Annually, output grew 1.2%, below the forecast of 2.1%.
• Fed's Musalem advises caution on rate cuts, noting tepid business investment while balancing inflation pressures. Hammack suggests keeping policy restrictive due to inflation concerns despite economic resilience. Kashkari sees inflation at 3% as high, observing labor market pressures and mixed signals, undecided on December rate cuts. Daly rejects raising the 2% inflation target, noting risk balance slightly favors employment.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks tumbled Thursday as rate-cut hopes faded and AI-linked names sold off. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, and the Dow lost 1.5%, erasing recent records. Odds of a December 25 bp cut slid to ~50% from 95% a month ago after Fed officials signaled caution amid inflation and data gaps from the shutdown. Tech led losses: Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Palantir fell 3.6–6.5%, while Disney plunged 7.8% after mixed Q4 results. In the post market, Applied materials fell 4.3% after a modest beat as China revenue risk remains.
• EU - Germany’s DAX fell 1.4% to 24,042 Thursday, snapping a three-day rally as profit-taking set in after the U.S. shutdown officially ended with funding through January. Uncertainty over delayed economic data and mixed earnings kept sentiment cautious. Siemens plunged over 9% after reporting weaker Q4 earnings despite raising its medium-term growth outlook, dragging Siemens Energy (-5.9%) and Siemens Healthineers (-3.4%). Deutsche Telekom reversed early gains to close down 0.2% despite a dividend hike and raised guidance. On the upside, Merck jumped 5% on stronger-than-expected Q3 results.
• HK - Hang Seng rose 150 points (0.6%) to 27,073 Thursday, extending its winning streak to four sessions and hitting a one-month high. Sentiment improved after President Trump signed a bill ending the record U.S. government shutdown, with U.S. futures higher. In China, officials signaled plans to boost the new energy battery sector and infrastructure use, while Baidu unveiled two AI chips to provide low-cost, locally controlled computing power. Samsonite surged 15% on strong earnings and upbeat guidance. Other gainers included SMIC (+3.0%), China Hongqiao (+2.5%), and Zijin Gold (+2.2%). Tencent reported a 15% revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by AI enhancements in advertising and gaming. Revenue hit 192.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations. Gaming surged 16%, with strong international growth. AI investment boosted cloud service.
• SG – Singapore Airlines reported earnings that missed estimates due to Air India losses but they are paying a dividend of 10 Singapore cents per share annually over the next 3 years.

Earnings this week:

• Friday: Li Auto, SMIC