Technical Update - US Equity Markets
Top and Reversal patterns across the board. Support levels under Pressure.
Nasdaq 100 closed Friday below the important support at 15.638. Minor support at 15.508 which is where the Index touched before performing the Santa Claus rally. However RSI closed below 40 threshold indicating further downward pressure meaning elevated risk to the down side towards the 200 SMA around 15K.
Weekly time period: RSI has indicated divergence since November, MACD for the better part of 2021. With last week’s negative market Nasdaq has now formed TWO top and reversal candlestick patterns: Bearish Engulfing candle and an Evening Star like pattern. 15.508 support could prove crucial.
The USNAS100 CFD (Nasdaq 100 future) is hovering around the important support at 15.540. RSI also below 40 here.
S&P500 is still holding on above the short term rising trend line and above the 55 SMA. However, RSI divergence also here indicating the Santa Claus rally was weak and is under pressure.
Weekly time period: S&P500 formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern as buyers couldn’t keep the Christmas rally alive. The medium term rising trend line could come under pressure in coming weeks. 4.495 seems to be crucial support for the .
Russell 2000 Small Caps got rejected at the 55 SMA last week and is again on the move towards important support at around 2.130. With the RSI indicator being rejected at 60 i.e. staying bearish sentiment a test of the support is likely.
RSI Divergence explained: When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indication of the ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
Quarterly Outlook Q1 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q1 2022: Fuelling the Energy Crisis
- The green transformation is fuelling the energy crisis. Is it time to base our energy future on reality not fantasy?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
Commodities supported by greenflation and tight supplyThe commodity sector recorded its best year since 2000 in 2021. Will the good times will keep rolling in 2022? Ole Hansen thinks so.
The bond bear market will not spare anyoneInvestors will need to prepare for the pain of a bond bear market in 2022. But are there opportunities out there, too?
Mean reversion for big 2021 moves and lots of volatilityDon't expect the Japanese yen or Chinese renminbi to stay at their overstretched valuations for long. Get the FX Outlook now.
The future in energy-intensive proof-of-work looks dimIn the midst of a global energy crisis, electricity-guzzling Bitcoin and Ethereum are set to feel the heat from politicians and investors.
Australian equities poised to benefit from the energy crisisThere may be an energy crisis, but that's fuelling a charge in the ASX. FInd out which stocks could be burning hot this quarter.
The EU’s unwise energy policyThe EU's energy crisis is one of the main drivers of inflation. Is there any relief around the corner, or is the situation critical?