Technical Update - ASM Int. & Heineken -Share prices lower after disappointing earnings and news. Will they go lower?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
ASM International is trading 8% lower this morning after being rejected at the 200 daily SMA just below the medium-term falling trendline. A trendline ASM needs to close above to reverse the downtrend. A close above 290.65 would confirm short-term uptrend with strong resistance at around 320.
ASM has been in a medium-term down trend since the beginning of 2022 and there is no sign of this to end or reverse – unless the above scenario plays out.
Weekly RSI is showing negative sentiment and no divergence supporting the bearish view that ASM is likely to move lower and perform a lower low below July lows around €193.72. If ASM breaks below 220 that bearish scenario is likely to unfold and ASM could test the weekly 200 SMA and possibly the lower falling trendline on the weekly chart.
Heineken is bouncing after testing March lows around €78. Bottom fishing could lift Heineken shares the next couple of days but if it cannot close the gap up above €86 bear trend remains and could be further fueled if closing below €78.
Heavy volume on down days past few weeks and light volume on up days supports the bearish view. RSI is below 40 i.e., negative sentiment, testing low from September. A close below will further add to the bearish outlook for Heineken
Looking at the weekly chart we can see that Heineken has a history of massive selloffs followed by strong rebounds. But the rebound peaks have been lower the past year signaling medium- to longer term weakness.
RSI has been showing negative sentiment on the weekly since February when It closed below 40 and has since failed to close above 60. So, if Heineken closes below 80.84 on the week and RSI closes below 40 the outlook is confirmed bearish.
For Heineken to change that a close above 92.65 is needed. However, that will most likely just put the share price in neutral. For a medium- to longer-term uptrend to be confirmed a close above 97.26 is needed. A close above the4 upper falling trend line would be first indication of this scenario to play out
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.