All in or fall out?

With a divided Parliament set to deliver its verdict on Theresa May’s controversial Brexit deal, volatility could plague sterling and euro crosses, as well as European stocks and indices.

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What’s happening?

Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal has resulted in yet more votes in the House of Commons following repeated postponements, an unsuccessful vote of no confidence and tense negotiations.

Despite delaying the meaningful vote, the prime minister still faces an uphill struggle to secure the votes needed to get the deal through Parliament.

The markets have been a tinderbox of activity, sparked by Brexit confusion, and look set to remain volatile until a resolution is found.

Markets to watch


Keep an eye on sterling and euro crosses, especially EURGBP. The pound could suffer if May’s deal falls through, but also strengthen if she can get it through Parliament.


Global equity markets have been twitchy throughout 2018, with the UK indices particularly sensitive to Brexit developments. Pay close attention to the DAX and CAC, too.


It’s a nervy time for companies with large UK headcounts or those reliant on EU exports. UK banks and manufacturers – such as HSBC, Unilever or GSK – are ones to watch.


Gold prices have been relatively stable since the referendum, but the ongoing uncertainty could see the metal perform strongly as investors look to traditional safe havens.

Saxo Group’s expert view on Brexit

Stay up to date on the latest Brexit fallout with news and insights from the #SaxoStrats, Saxo Group’s team of in-house analysts.

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