Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)
To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief
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At the same time, it looked like one autocrat talking to another with the Trump & Erdogan press event. Say what you want, yet Trump seems to be clearly long Turkey & that is likely good for Turkish assets
The US listed Turkish iShares MSCI etf TUR had a big uplift of +1.47% to 26.18 – chart looks like we are about to break out higher, with the 28.34 highs of January potentially within reach. Trump was talking about $100bn trade deal with Turkey
Once again say what you want about Trump… +9yrs of The Apprentice, this dude is a master instigator, check out one of the things he said:
“I think the president [Erdgogan] has a great relationship with the Kurds”
Just amazing & that’s the magic. Folks will focus on comments / statements like this, whilst he moves on to doing whatever he wants
It will be interesting to see if Congress has other plans/ideas around Turkey, similar to what we previously saw with Russia
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Worth also noting overnight that US inflation was mixed, beat on headline 1.8%a 1.7%e 1.7%p, whilst Core CPI which is more important missed at 2.3%a 2.4%e/p. In the UK headline missed, yet Core CPI was in line at 1.7%
Euro-zone industrial production beat at +10bp a vs. -20bp e +40bp p
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Today once again about Powell’s 2nd half of testimony to Congress. We do also have three more FOMC members speaking: Quarles, Clarida & Evans
We have jobs data out of Aus, always a big mover for markets there both equities & the Aussie crosses, following which we will get the monthly China growth data
Namaste
-KVP
Today:
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
