Head of FX Strategy
Summary: NZD weakens sharply on a dovish RBNZ – suddenly looking at a downside break level after poking at resistance. Elsewhere, currencies can’t decide what to do on the conflicting signals of clear safe haven seeking in sovereign bond markets while equities zig and zag.
Today’s FX Breakout monitor
Page 1: The strength in sovereign bonds sees EURJPY poking near the downside breakout level today. Elsewhere, note that AUDNZD is nearly back at a 19-day highs just a couple of session after testing 19-day lows – more below. And EURCHF poked below the key cycle low area around 1.1200.
Page 2: A hold into the close above the break levels in USDZAR looks tempting for a long position as we discuss below. Elsewhere, AUDJPY has reversed nearly all of yesterday’s gains and change direction sharply for the third time in just a few sessions.
Chart: AUDNZD
AUDNZD is looking at a 19-day high today just a couple of sessions after poking to new lows for the cycle on the RBNZ’s dovish guidance. Trading against a former trend is difficult, but a move back above 1.0500 would suggest that the lows are in for this pair for at least a try back to the 1.0700 area.
Chart: USDZAR
This is a chart we brought up a couple of days ago and the upside break signal looks technically compelling on a close above 14.50-55 today – we’ll have a look at the price action into today’s close and early tomorrow for more guidance.
REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations
The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.
Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.
ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).
High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.
Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout.
NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
