background image background image background image

NY Open: The Great Black Friday oil sale

Forex 4 minutes to read
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

Summary:  Black Friday is boosting US equities today, but trade war fears, oversupply, and the ever-present worry of global demand slippage have led to a fire sale on crude oil.


Today saw WTI drop to $50.63/barrel from a pre-New York opening level of $53.60/barrel. This came on thin markets, the China/US trade war and concerns that supply from rising US production and slowing global growth will outpace demand next year.

USDCAD took centre stage in New York due to the release of September Retail Sales and October Inflation reports. Inflation was a touch warmer than expected but the Retail Sales report was tepid. After the initial churn, prices returned to their opening level. USDCAD is trading with a positive bias in an upward channel, supported by ongoing oil price weakness. 

EURUSD is consolidating earlier losses from weaker than expected PMI data while GBPUSD is under pressure over UK politics. USDJPY slipped alongside a drop in US Treasury yields.

Wall Street opened in the red. Traders are reportedly spooked by the 2.21% drop in the Shanghai CSI 300 index and concerns ahead of next week’s Trump/Xi meeting. Free-falling oil prices are adding to the negative sentiment.

The week ahead looks promising for volatile trading. The EU Council debates the Brexit agreement draft and may generate some inflammatory headlines, and it should keep GBPUSD and EURUSD on high alert. Spanish officials are said to be less than enamoured with the draft and want a written promise of a veto over any future relations between the EU and Gibraltar.

The EU is embroiled in a budget dispute with Italy. Italy refuses to reduce the budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP, and the EU is threatening financial penalties. President Trump will hijack another G-20 summit meeting. The Argentina get-together in Argentina will be overshadowed by the Trump/Jinping meeting as the US and China work to resolve their trade issues.

Traders will have a lot of quality economic data to digest as well. US Q3 GDP data are released Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes are released Thursday, and Eurozone CPI is due Friday.

USDCAD
USDCAD, source: Saxo Bank


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.